Fantasy Football News 12/22/06

[Hache Man]

Lumps of Coal
It's too bad fantasy championship weekend couldn't have come last week. Between Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Joseph Addai, and the kickers, every single championship game in fantasydom would have been hanging on the Monday night game, which would have provided some high drama. Tony Romo, Jeff Garcia, Chad Pennington, and Joey Harrington don't really provide the same luster.

Almost every pick either directly or indirectly references DVOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. All rankings are in DVOA, not the official rankings based on yards. DVOA is more predictive of future success than anything else out there, and this column applies that predictive power not to figuring out who will win real football games, which is what DVOA was created to do, but to help you win fantasy football games. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation of how DVOA works.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Chris Weinke at Atlanta -- You could do worse. The Panthers are a wideout-centric team, and the Falcons are terrible at defending against wide receivers, never mind DeAngelo Hall's Pro Bowl election.

Marc Bulger vs. Washington -- Just because they stymied the Saints for one week, I don't believe the Redskins league-worst pass defense has turned the corner. This could be shootout given that the Rams have the league's worst overall defense (and getting worse).

Jeff Garcia at Dallas -- The Cowboys pass defense has come off the rails of late, and it's now a distinct weakness relative to the run defense. That means the best way the Eagles can utilize their best playmaker, Brian Westbrook, is to throw him the ball. Garcia owners should be licking their chops at that thought.

Sit

Trent Green at Oakland -- I've written several times about the surprisingly good Oakland defense. They're particularly excellent against #1 receivers and tight ends, so however they treat Tony Gonzalez, they should be able to shut him down, leaving Green little to work with.

David Carr vs. Indianapolis -- "Three yards and a cloud of dust" is now the description of the Texans passing game. The three yards part is a quick out to Andre Johnson that strikes fear in the heart of no one, and the could of dust comes up when Carr is flattened by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Tony Romo vs. Philadelphia -- Back on earth, Romo is making some rookieish mistakes and generally failing to live up to his messiah billing. The improving Eagles pass defense should keep applying pressure to the Romo bandwagon.

RUNNING BACKS

Start

Travis Henry at Buffalo -- The second worst run defense in the league should be enough to cure his ailing ankle.

Edgerrin James at San Francisco -- I've been down on James all year, because he's been unproductive. But as Aaron Schatz pointed out this week, it's never been because he's bad, it's his offensive line. Well, that's better, and the 49ers run defense is still bad.

Shaun Alexander vs. San Diego -- Remember when everyone thought Alexander should be the top pick in the fantasy draft this year? Good times. If you're in a championship game this year and have Alexander on your team, you probably picked him up in a mid-season trade for Ronnie Brown. He's a very ordinary back this year on a very ordinary Seattle offense, but the Chargers have been struggling stopping the run ever since Tatum Bell busted a 51-yarder against them two weeks ago.

Sit

Jamal Lewis at Pittsburgh -- Lewis remains overrated. The defense is what earned Baltimore the division championship; the rush offense has been below average. Pittsburgh's defense has come back together, and it's now #3 against the run.

Warrick Dunn vs. Carolina -- He's still hobbling a bit, and the Panthers have a top-10 rush defense, so there's no reason to expect any better this week than what Dunn has done the last few.

Corey Dillon at Jacksonville -- The Jaguars are good at every kind of defense, although they're outrageously inconsistent. Call it a hunch, but I just think Bill Belichick will keep the ball in Tom Brady's hands against the Jaguars.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Bernard Berrian at Detroit -- You never know what you're going to get from Berrian, because he's a deep threat receiver whose production is at the whim of Rex Grossman. But Grossman is generally a good quarterback against bad defenses, and the Lions have bad defense in spades.

Mark Clayton at Pittsburgh -- Clayton is another wildly inconsistent receiver, but the Steelers are bad against wide receivers this year. Derrick Mason may not play, so Clayton could thrive in an expanded role.

Plaxico Burress vs. New Orleans -- This is the latest installment of our weekly feature, "Start the #1 receiver playing the Saints."

Sit

Drew Bennett at Buffalo -- The Bills have a surprisingly solid pass defense, particularly against #1 receivers. Don't expect too much out of the Titans passing game.

Chad Johnson at Denver -- If you believe the "Chad Johnson plays his best against the league's top corners" theory, disregard this advice. Otherwise, realize that Champ Bailey may well be the league's top corner and sit the Bengals' #1 receiver.

Lee Evans vs. Tennessee -- Pacman Jones probably should have been a Pro Bowler this year, and he should be able to control the main weapon the Bills have in the passing game.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

Kellen Winslow vs. Tampa Bay -- Assuming his knee holds up, Winslow has a chance to have a great game against the atrocious Bucs pass defense, next-to-last in the league against tight ends.

Sit

Jason Witten vs. Philadelphia -- The Eagles have been very strong against tight ends this year. Tony Romo will find a lot more open space around Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn.

KICKERS

Start

Joe Nedney vs. Arizona -- The 49ers have a good chance to move the ball well against the Cardinals, but with an above-average run defense, Arizona may be able to stymie them in the red zone and force a lot of field goals.

Sit

Jeff Reed vs. Baltimore -- There aren't a lot of bright prospects for the Steelers to score a lot in this game. They're more likely to give the Ravens short fields with turnovers than they are to get them from Baltimore, so it'll take straightforward good work from the offense to get the Steelers into scoring position.

DEFENSES

Start

Colts at Houston -- Did someone say something about sacks? Plus Ron Dayne isn't much of a tackle breaker, so he might make the Indy defense look like a professional defense, even if he doesn't make them look particularly good. David Carr will take care of that part.

Sit

Seahawks at San Diego -- The Chargers offense is not to be stopped. Certainly not by the likes of these Seahawks. The Chargers also have excellent coverage on special teams, so don't expect any big Nate Burleson kick returns.

[Hache Man]

My Leagues


This week, I'll tell you a little bit about my leagues and discuss J.P. Losman, Jay Cutler, and the Tennessee defense. Then, fantasy's best emailers will provide their input on how to maximize respect.
For those of you who are interested in the new movie We Are Marshall (about the rebuilding of the Marshall football program after a 1970 plane crash killed the team), check out my one-on-one interview with Matthew McConaughey that ran on NBCSports.com on Wednesday. You might be surprised by how likeable the superstar is. And I bet you didn't know his dad played for Bear Bryant and was drafted by Green Bay!
Thought of the Week: My Leagues
I get a lot of questions about my leagues; so, being that the season is winding down (and I'm running out of things to talk about), I figured this was as good a time as any to bore you with the details.
I usually only do two leagues a season for football, basketball, and baseball. (I used to play hockey as well but had to cut that out in the interest of time management. Once I even played some fantasy game based on Survivor: The Australian Outback.) I don't like having a lot of teams, because it gets to the point where you don't know who to root for any more. Guys on one of your teams are on your opponent's team in another league, etc., etc. So I usually restrict it to my office league and one "experts" league. I love doing the office league, because trash talking your buddies is what fantasy sports is all about, right? And the experts leagues obviously offer a competitive environment and a way to interact with other fantasy sports writers from various publications/sites.
My Office League
This 14-team league got wacky this year when the commissioner decided to award as many points for passing yards as for rushing and receiving yards. As if that didn't give quarterbacks ridiculously disproportionate value, he then went and added a half point per completion…after the draft. (Don't get me started on changes to league settings after the draft…after everyone plotted draft strategies based on the initial scoring system. What makes it even worse is the fact that the commish's QB, Drew Brees, ranked fourth in completions in 2005.) The result of this absurd scoring system? As of today, J.P. Losman has more fantasy points than LaDainian Tomlinson. No lie.
Still, despite the completely unbalanced scoring system, I was careful not to put too much stock in drafting a QB high. I made that mistake once before in a similar league, drafting Jeff Garcia with the second overall pick in the days when he and Kurt Warner reigned supreme. Unfortunately, that was the year Garcia dropped off like Arsenio Hall. So instead, I drafted Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Plaxico Burress, and Frank Gore (in that order) and took Jake Plummer in the seventh. Plummer obviously turned out to be a dud, but I made up for it by grabbing Jon Kitna (whom the commish dumped—ha ha) and plugging him in as early as Week 3.
I had other embarrassing picks besides Plummer (most notably Michael Clayton in the sixth and the Pittsburgh defense in the eighth), but my ninth pick Laveranues Coles rounded out a nice receiving corps, and of course Jackson and Gore have been out of this world. Robbie Gould, whom I picked up early on, was a help for a while, but I recently dumped him for Mike Nugent (which paid off last week). As a result, I am playing in the championships against none other than the commish this week. Mr. Double Standard is ripping mad, too, because I traded Wali Lundy for Bret Favre back in the days when Lundy was starting for the Texans and used Favre last night instead of Kitna who's facing the Bears (which, of course, was the plan when I made the proposal in the first place). Of course it looks lopsided now, but if he thought it was unfair at the time, why didn't he veto it?
The Sports Buff Reporter/VIP League
I enjoyed this salary cap league, mainly because it weighs all positions—including kicker and defense—very evenly. For that reason, I stuck Baltimore and Chicago in my two defense spots and pretty much left them there all year. The low-priced Frank Gore was also a fixture in my lineup. If I could change one thing it probably would have been jumping on the Marques Colston bandwagon a bit earlier than I did. I tend to play it safe with unproven guys and thus missed out on a couple of his monster weeks. I did hop on the Brees and LT trains at the right times, though, and have subsequently done fairly well. Out of 158 teams, I've been ranked as high as seventh (last week). Currently I'm 11th. Chances of me rising to the top and winning the trip to Vegas are somewhat slim, though, as Sandlot Shrink has over 100 point on me, and we typically score about 200 points a week.
Players of Note
Chad Pennington – With his career-high 339 yards last week, Pennington opened some eyes. But before you get overly excited about plugging him in, realize that his big day came against a Vikings' pass defense that ranks second worst in the league. His matchups over the final two weeks are not nearly as friendly, as he faces the third- and first-ranked pass defenses (Miami and Oakland, respectively). You'll want to go with a better option if you have one.
Jay Cutler – It's definitely premature to put a lot of confidence in the rookie, but Cutler has a superb matchup this week against Cincinnati. Not only do the Bengals have the 30th-ranked pass defense, but they're likely to get a lead and force Denver to throw. If your starter is a mid-tier kind of guy with a poor matchup (e.g., Kitna), think about rolling the dice on the rook.
J.P. Losman – Quietly, Losman has transformed into a reliable quarterback…and fantasy option. In fact, on the year, he has fewer interceptions than Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady and only one more than Peyton Manning. Over the last three weeks, he has seven TD to just two INT. Perhaps most impressively is that last week's 200-yard, three-touchdown performance came against Miami's third-ranked pass defense. On paper he looks to have a nice matchup against Tennessee's 22nd-ranked pass defense this week, but then again Pacman Jones and company have been picking off quarterbacks left and right. They did, however, yield 233 yards to David Garrard last week.
Ron Dayne – If ever there was a time to use Ron Dayne, it was now. Houston Coach Gary Kubiak loves him (though maybe not quite as much as Bill Parcells loves Tony Romo or Jim Mora loves Michael Vick), and he's facing the second worst run defense in football (the Colts). Certainly, he's not the kind of guy you expect to evade tacklers and break off long scampers resulting in monster numbers, but he should better his solid numbers from last week (18 carries, 94 yards, TD).
Tennessee Defense/Special Teams – Unlike running backs, receivers, and quarterbacks, defenses that get hot don't send fantasy owners racing to the waiver wire. But what the Titans have done of late warrants attention. In Week 12, they intercepted Eli Manning twice. The next week, they picked off Peyton Manning twice. Then last week, they reeled in three passes from David Garrard and returned all of them for touchdowns. (One return even included a devastating stiff arm by Cortland Finnegan.) Pretty surprising for a defense to whom no fantasy owners were paying attention. One reason for their newfound success is the emergence of Pacman Jones. The sophomore is living up to the hype that made him the sixth overall pick in last year's draft. In fact, last week alone he returned an interception 83 yards for a score and also provided a 70-yard kickoff return. If you don't have a top defense, you might consider using them against J.P. Losman and the Bills this week. Losman, though, has been taking good care of the ball recently, with no picks over the last two weeks and only 10 on the year.
The Trash Dump
Submit your questions/comments to jgangi@rotoworld.com.
{In response to Brad Hill's "great idea" of creating a couples league to involve the wives/girlfriends}: MY A$$ !!!! If you want lubby-dubby couples action, take it to a swingers resort!!! This move you suggest/support takes the competitive spirit completely out of Fantasy Football. Besides, how many of the couples involved are going to follow the rules.....namely letting the guys do the educating and the ladies setting the lineups ??!! Fuggettaboutit!! Give me a freak'n break already!!!! To make things fair...here's another "great idea". How about having the ladies show their pansy husbands how to carry their purses, so they won't look anymore stupid than they usually do when they carry them in the shopping mall!!!
- Tony Acello, Philadelphia, PA This takes me back to second grade when boys busted on other boys for including girls in their game of tag. What you don't realize that Brad does is that turning your girl onto fantasy sports beats the hell out of getting guilt trips for the rest of your existence whenever you choose to watch a game or set your lineup over candle shopping. What other activities do you recommend leaving women out of? Going to a game? Dinner and a movie? Sex?

[Hache Man]

With Taylor Away MJD Will Play
Start 1 of the Tarvaris Jackson Era was a bust—although don't say I didn't warn you —as Jackson went 10-of-20 for 50 measly yards in miserable weather at Lambeau Field Thursday night. A 50-yard passing effort in a loss to a non-playoff team is clearly not how the Vikings envisioned Jackson taking over for Brad Johnson, but the truth is that the rookie was far from disastrous (or at least as disastrous as the numbers suggest).

Minnesota's offensive line was horrible in pass protection all night, consistently getting beat by a Green Bay pass rush that typically included just four defenders. Aaron Kampman recorded three sacks and the Packers got pressure on Jackson basically whenever they wanted. To combat the pressure, the Vikings put Jackson in a lot of deep drops, but that failed to work when Jackson had trouble stepping up in the pocket.

That left Jackson standing 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage with defenders converging on him from the outside, an unused pocket to step into, and various receivers running the Vikings' usual assortment of eight-yard routes. It was a mess, part of which can be blamed on Jackson, but the combination of shaky protection and a poor game plan gave him little chance for success in an unfavorable environment to begin with.

While the blame in Minnesota apparently shifts from Brad Johnson to Brad Childress, here are some other notes from around football …

* One day after the Jaguars said he won't play in Week 16 if not at 100 percent, Fred Taylor's injured hamstring forced him to miss Thursday's practice. There's a slight chance Taylor could put in a full practice Friday and suit up against the Patriots, but it seems highly unlikely at this point. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew practiced fully Thursday and appears to be recovered from his Week 15 knee problems.

New England stops the run extremely well, but it'd be impossible not to like Drew's chances of putting together big numbers with Taylor out. MJD has 326 total yards and three touchdowns over the past two games, has found the end zone in six straight weeks, and is averaging 94 yards and 1.0 touchdowns over a 12-game stretch since barely playing for the first two weeks of the season. And that's all with Taylor starting.

* Carnell Williams missed practice Thursday and remains in a protective boot for his injured foot, with the Tampa Tribune reporting Friday that his streak of 24 straight starts "appears in jeopardy." Williams remains questionable for Week 16, but coach Jon Gruden told reporters "the longer he wears the boot, the more questionable he becomes." In other words, if Williams can't participate fully in practice Friday, expect Michael Pittman to get the call against Cleveland.

Williams has done little offensively since a big game in mid-November, but Pittman remains an intriguing RB2/Flex play if he gets a relatively full workload. In addition to the 10-15 carries he'd likely see stepping in for Williams, Pittman would retain his role as third-down back and also pick up some work in the passing game on first and second downs. He totaled 11 catches for 103 yards over the past two weeks playing behind Williams, so it wouldn't be shocking to see him with 20-plus touches against the Browns.

* NFL Network's Adam Schefter reported Thursday that Oakland plans to fire coach Art Shell following the season, with defensive coordinator Rob Ryan first in line as his replacement. The Raiders responded to Schefter's report by calling him "a false rumor monger," which is certainly amusing. Of course, the problem is that Schefter's batting average on such scoops is second-to-none and a denial was noticeably absent from the statement. Calling a reporter names without actually denying his report is an odd tactic for a team to take publicly and suggests Shell is indeed a goner.

I criticized the job Shell has done this season in this space last week, suggesting "It Worked So Well in Practice: The Art Shell Story" as a potential title for his biography. He may soon have plenty of time on his hands to work on such a book. Sadly, my duties here at RotoWorld.com and NBCSports.com preclude me from being his co-author despite what this humorous photo-shop effort sent in by David Bester of WideRight.com might have you believe.

Two-Minute Drill: Chris Taylor is reportedly expected to play over Wali Lundy, making Lundy a complete non-factor with Ron Dayne starting … Torry Holt needs 256 yards over the final two weeks to extend his streak of 1,300-yard seasons to seven … Reuben Droughns and Jerome Harrison are reportedly expected to "share" carries this week, sapping Droughns of whatever fantasy value he had … As expected, Brett Favre said nothing about his future following his final home game of the season Thursday night … Santonio Holmes is expected to start over Cedrick Wilson in Week 16 … After a solid run around midseason, Marcus Robinson is safely buried in the doghouse after being a healthy scratch in Week 15 and serving as the Vikings' fifth receiver Thursday night.

Red Zone: Thomas Jones (ribs) returned to practice Thursday, but the local media in Chicago remains convinced that Cedric Benson will play a big role in Week 16 … Jonathan Ogden's turf toe injury will be an overlooked factor as the Ravens head into the playoffs … Travis Henry (ankle) practiced "full speed" Thursday and is set to start Sunday … It looks like Warrick Dunn (calf) and Jerious Norwood (knee) will be healthy and back to splitting carries this week … After missing practice again Thursday, Darrell Jackson (toe) has virtually no chance to play in Week 16 … Michael Vick said Thursday that his injured groin remains sore, but practiced and looks likely to play … Joseph Addai (ankle) missed the team portion of practice Thursday, but apparently looked good enough in individual drills that coach Tony Dungy expects him to suit up Sunday … Joe Horn (groin) missed practice again Thursday and is highly unlikely to play this week … Carson Palmer returned to practice Thursday and said his "shoulder is fine."