Fantasy Football News 12/26/06

[Hache Man]

No McNabb? No Problem
I should probably have some sort of profound, thought-provoking introduction today, what with yesterday being Christmas and all. Instead, I'll simply point out that I spent Christmas afternoon watching Jeff Garcia direct the Eagles to a road win over the Cowboys, propelling Philadelphia into the division lead There are any number of ways to describe how wacky this season has been, but that one sentence does a pretty good job all by itself.

Philadelphia was in the midst of dropping to 5-5 when Donovan McNabb went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 11. Garcia stepped into the starting lineup and has gone 4-1, with four straight victories following a blowout loss to the then-powerful Colts in Week 12. During that four-game winning streak, Garcia defeated Carolina, and then won on the road against division rivals Washington, New York, and Dallas.

If you wrote the above scenario into a movie script—with Garcia playing the role of Steamin' Willie Beamen, I suppose—people would laugh at it. Yet with a win against the reeling, hapless Falcons in Week 17, the Eagles would head into the playoffs as the NFC's No. 3 seed, likely allowing them to host the equally reeling and hapless Giants in the opening round.

From there the Eagles would travel to New Orleans and then, most likely, to Chicago. That's certainly not a favorable path to the Super Bowl, but it's a whole hell of a lot more of a path, period, than Eagles fans thought they had when McNabb went down. Teams with first-round byes are always the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, but thanks to a sub par conference the Eagles look like as good a bet as a No. 3 seed can be.

While Lions, Browns, and 49ers fans walk around all day muttering "Jeff Garcia?!" to themselves, here are some other notes from around football …

* I'm generally of the opinion that Terrell Owens gets a relatively bum rap from fans and the media, but even I've got to admit that he should just shut up at this point. After Monday's loss to Philadelphia, Owens complained about his lack of involvement in Dallas' passing game, saying he specifically needs to get the ball thrown his way "early in the game." That's fine, of course, but when the ball did come Owens' way in Week 16, it was dropped as often as it was caught.

Owens has 15 official drops on the year, many of the ugly variety. I understand that it's popular to be an outspoken wide receiver and Owens is certainly at the forefront of that simultaneously annoying and amusing movement, but at some point you can't criticize everyone else when you're screwing up big plays consistently. Given Owens' consistent complaints and the Cowboys' late-season decline, it seems somewhat unlikely that he'll be back in 2007.

* Sammy Morris started Monday night, but Ronnie Brown quickly took over in the backfield after coming off the bench late in the first quarter. Despite not playing since Week 12, Brown looked fantastic while rushing for 110 yards on 18 carries, including six runs of 10-plus yards. As disappointing and injury-wrecked as Brown's much-hyped "breakout" season has been, he'll top 1,000 rushing yards if he can simply duplicate his 110-yard effort against the sieve-like Colts in Week 17.

In a dozen games, Brown has 893 yards and five touchdowns on 220 carries, plus 266 yards on 32 catches. Over a full 16-game schedule, that works out to 1,550 total yards and seven touchdowns. Brown certainly hasn't had the type of production many—myself included—expected of him as a sophomore, but given the mess of a quarterback situation in Miami, the Dolphins' shaky offensive line, and his own injury problems, it's not a bad second year.

* Much like Brown, Edgerrin James' season will look better in retrospect. James found zero running room behind a horrible offensive line early and was completely phased out of the game plan in Week 12 against Minnesota, but has 398 rushing yards and three 100-yard efforts in four games since. With 105 yards on 29 carries Sunday, James became the first Cardinals runner to top 1,000 yards in eight seasons. Seriously.

James' per-carry average of 3.4 yards is still brutal and he hasn't had nearly enough chances at the goal line, but he's certainly headed in the right direction going into 2007. Arizona's offensive line improved significantly as the year went on and there's reason to think James can take a big step forward next year. That probably means 1,250 yards rather than the monster years he had in Indianapolis, but after watching him put up 20-carry, 40-yard efforts throughout the first half, James' fantasy owners would take that.

James averaged a Jamal Anderson-like 26.5 touches over the first eight games of the season, but managed just 2.8 yards per carry. Even ignoring the forgettable, odd game against Minnesota, James has averaged 23.5 touches per game during the second half. However, over that same six-game span he's picked up 4.3 yards per carry, topping a four-yard average in five of the six games. Give him some semblance of a consistent passing game and a little blocking to work with, and James can still get the job done.

Two-Minute Drill: Daunte Culpepper reportedly confronted ESPN's Steve Young outside the television booth after Young questioned Culpepper's work ethic and attendance for team meetings on the air Monday night … With 205 yards Sunday, Peyton Manning became the first player in NFL history with seven 4,000-yard seasons … Inexplicably, Detroit News columnist Mike O'Hara wrote that he'd "bet on" Matt Millen returning in 2007, which makes it even sadder that the planned walkout by Lions fans Sunday reportedly resulted in about 100 people leaving … Rex Grossman revealed that he's throwing downfield less often in an effort to cut down on turnovers … Not to be outdone by Owens, Deion Branch has six drops in the last two weeks alone … With Seattle clinching the fourth seed regardless of their Week 17 outcome, expect Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck, and company to get plenty of rest.

Red Zone: Reports out of New York suggest that Michael Strahan re-injured his sprained foot Sunday … Michael Turner's hip flexor could keep him from getting a big workload when the Chargers likely sit their starters in Week 17 … Fred Taylor's (hamstring) status for the season finale sounds uncertain at best, making Maurice Jones-Drew a great fantasy option again this week … With Charlie Frye (hand) and Derek Anderson (shoulder) out, Ken Dorsey will be thrown to the Texans on New Year's Eve … Coach Romeo Crennel denied a report that Braylon Edwards played with a dislocated thumb Sunday, meaning he can't use that as an excuse for his two drops … Javon Walker (wrist) reportedly underwent X-rays Sunday night, but the injury is not expected to be serious.

[Hache Man]

Wired: Looking Ahead
With much of America heading to bed in a drink-induced coma Monday night, Leon Washington trickled 64 yards up a soggy Miami field during a play that may sink the playoff hopes of dangerous teams like the Jaguars, Bengals, and Titans. If the Jets and Broncos beat Oakland and San Francisco this week, respectively, they will wrap up the two AFC Wild Cards sports.

Most fantasy leagues are already decided. The few that remain are unlikely to have a waiver period this week, so this column will look ahead. A player who has a chance to see a major bump in value in 2007 was selected from each NFL team.

I tried to pick a lesser name whenever possible. In some cases, well-known players were chosen because they have a chance to rise to elite status next season. Goal Line Stand will still come out on Thursday, but I wanted to take this time to say thanks for reading Waiver Wired this year. Your support makes this website possible.

2007 Wired Risers

AFC East

New England Patriots – Chad Jackson, WR - The Patriots weren't able to integrate Jackson into the offense or find consistent receiver talent during the season. Bill Belichick often talks about a second-year leap and will hope Jackson can learn their system enough to start next year. Laurence Maroney should also rise to a first-round fantasy option if the team cuts Corey Dillon. I'd bet on it.

Buffalo Bills - J.P. Losman, QB - Losman may never be an elite fantasy option, but his job is secure and the Bills could help him out by adding a halfway decent number two receiver or pass-catching tight end.

Miami Dolphins – Ricky Williams, RB - It appears the Dolphins want Ricky back, but what Ricky will show up? His best chance for true fantasy relevance is to go elsewhere. Rookie WR Derek Hagan has shown promise, but probably needs Marty Booker to get cut to matter in 2006. Backup QB Cleo Lemon is a free agent.

New York Jets - Kellen Clemens, QB - Expect Clemens to compete with Chad Pennington for the starting job next season. The running back position is still a mystery, but a Cedric Houston/Leon Washington combination will do if necessary. A committee seems likely regardless.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai, RB - Dominic Rhodes is a free agent and Addai should be ready to be a 350-touch running back. He'll probably be a top-15 fantasy pick.

Tennessee Titans – Brandon Jones, WR - Drew Bennett could leave via free agency, making Jones Vince Young's top target in the passing game. He'll be more explosive his second season removed from ACL surgery. Young should also emerge as a QB1 in fantasy leagues, but you knew that already.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Marcedes Lewis, TE - The second-year leap for tight ends is for real. Lewis has great size and hands. Matt Jones should also emerge as Jacksonville's top wideout in his third season.

Houston Texans – Sage Rosenfels, QB - Most observers feel David Carr will be dangled in trade talks this year. That leaves Rosenfels to battle for a starting job with a rookie (Troy Smith, JaMarcus Russell?) or veteran (Jake Plummer) to be named later.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – Demetrius Williams, WR - He probably won't start until 2008, but Williams has great vertical game receiving skills.

Cincinnati Bengals – Chris Henry, WR - There are no under the radar players lurking in Cincy unless the team drafts a tight end. But a natural progression from Henry would make him one of the top-25 receivers in the NFL, even if he's third best on his team.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Santonio Holmes, WR - Holmes has quietly had a highly impressive rookie season. Hines Ward and Holmes could be receivers 1 and 1A for Pittsburgh in 2007.

Cleveland Browns – Braylon Edwards, WR - For a rebuilding team, Cleveland is bereft of talent. Perhaps WR Travis Wilson or RB Jerome Harrison will emerge, but they didn't show anything in their rookie seasons. Edwards is a safe bet to keep improving.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers – Vincent Jackson, WR - He may be playing too well to bench in the playoffs. With Keenan McCardell aging, Jackson can be the team's top wideout next year. Michael Turner will be the best restricted free agent in the NFL, but we suspect San Diego will place the highest tender on him possible. It's unlikely another team would give up a first and third-round pick for him.

Denver Broncos – Brandon Marshall, WR - A young nucleus of Jay Cutler, Marshall, Javon Walker, and Tony Scheffler looks promising. Rod Smith may retire.

Oakland Raiders – Lamont Jordan, RB - A new coaching staff can revive Jordan's career. Ronald Curry should continue his ascent to a quality starting wideout.

Kansas City Chiefs – Tony Gonzalez, TE - There isn't much young offensive talent in Kansas City. It wouldn't be remotely surprising if Gonzo left Kansas City for bigger bucks (and a better offense?) elsewhere.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers – Vernon Davis, TE - His strong finish to the season ensures Davis won't fall far in fantasy drafts next season.

Seattle Seahawks – DJ Hackett, WR - The only Seahawk receiver with a certain future in Seattle is Deion Branch and Hackett has enjoyed a much better season. Hackett is a restricted free agent, but he should stay.

Arizona Cardinals – Matt Leinart, QB - Leinart has played well for a rookie quarterback and his weapons are among the league's best. It would help him out for continuity sake, however, if Arizona choose to retain Dennis Green.

St. Louis Rams – Kevin Curtis, WR In a thin market for free agent wideouts, Curtis should get a chance to start somewhere else. The Rams could also choose to keep him over Isaac Bruce, but that seems unlikely.

NFC East

Washington Redskins – Jason Campbell, QB - Two straight seasons in the same offensive system for the first time since high school could help Campbell tremendously. Don't be surprised, though, if Washington goes after Byron Leftwich.

New York Giants – Brandon Jacobs, RB - New York was rumored to be interested in Michael Turner, which suggests they may seek a committee partner for Jacobs. Second-year wideout Sinorice Moss may also compete for a starting job.

Philadelphia Eagles – Jeff Garcia, QB - We suspect Garcia, a free agent, will leave for a chance start elsewhere in 2007. Tampa and Houston are two possibilities. Also look for a battle at the No. 2 receiver slot if Donte' Stallworth leaves via free agency.

Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Crayton, WR - Bill Parcells may only say he's returning next year if Terrell Owens is cut. That would leave a starting job open for Crayton.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers – DeAngelo Williams, RB - DeShaun Foster's contract (and overall play) makes him fairly easy to release.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chris Simms, QB - It looks like he'll get another chance to compete for the team's starting job. WR Maurice Stovall may also get a chance to compete to start with Michael Clayton at the flanker spot.

Atlanta Falcons – Jerious Norwood, RB - If the team changes coaching staffs, hopefully the organization will try to retain their zone blocking scheme. Warrick Dunn may have to take a paycut to return.

New Orleans Saints – Reggie Bush, RB - I don't see much improvement out of the rest of New Orleans' young players. But if Bush can parlay the lessons learned in his rookie year, he'll be a steadier RB2 next season.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers – Vernand Morency, RB - Ahman Green's future is in doubt and Morency has earned a chance at a bigger role next season. Wideout Greg Jennings should also improve after struggling in the second half of his rookie season.

Chicago Bears – Mark Bradley, WR - Once 100% healthy, it wouldn't be a surprise if Bradley passed Bernard Berrian (or Mushin Muhammad) on the depth cart. Cedric Benson could also take a bigger leap in value if Chicago chooses to trade Thomas Jones.

Minnesota Vikings – Tarvaris Jackson, QB - He'll probably compete with a veteran not named Brad Johnson for the starting job. Some quality receivers would help greatly.

Detroit Lions – Brady Quinn, QB - It's only a matter of time. With no healthy running backs, Mike Martz will continue to pass more than 40 times a game.