Fantasy Football News 12/29/06

[Hache Man]

This Is It!


This week I'll thank my readers and discuss who you can and can't trust in Week 17.


Lost fans out there: Be sure to check out my interview with Matthew Fox on NBCSports.com!


Thought of the Week: Until Next Time


This being my last football column of the season, I just want to take a minute to thank all of my readers…especially those who contributed to the Trash Dump. I certainly enjoyed the team name contest and talking about "Drafterglow," "Post-Draft Depression," fantasy perks, Smash Mouth Superlatives, weak leagues, great leagues, celebrations, gift ideas, bumper stickers, coping tips for wives, things I'd say to my players, and maximizing respect. Hopefully, you found a chuckle or two in there somewhere, and hopefully the fact that you're reading this in Week 17 means my player notes had at least a small hand in getting you to your league championship game.


So, unless I get some six-figure contract to do something else, I'll see you right back here in the fall. In the meantime, have a happy New Year!


Update on My Office League Championship Matchup


Last week, I talked a bit about my personal leagues, and so I figured you might be interested in hearing about the crazy finish to my office league. I made the mistake of starting Brett Favre over Jon Kitna, figuring his matchup against the Vikings was far more favorable than Kitna's against the Bears. (In this QB-heavy league, Kitna would have netted me 20 more points.) Still, thanks to Steven Jackson, I was down only six points heading into Monday night with Laveranues Coles and Mike Nugent going. (My opponent had no one going.) In the bag, right? Well, I thought so until about half time, when the score of the Jets-Dolphins game was still 0-0, and Coles was nowhere to be found. Finally, late in the third, the Jets were forced to kick a field goal after Zach Thomas saved a touchdown with an ankle tackle. Thanks for the three points, Zach! The Jets scored again with eight minutes left, getting me another point with the Nugent PAT. So, with the New York up 10-7, I absolutely needed a Miami field goal. (If they didn't score, the Jets could just sit on it; if they got a TD, a Jets' FG would be useless.) Luckily, Olindo Mare provided the tying FG and all I needed was a game-winning kick from Nugent to crack open the champagne. So when Leon Washington broke loose for a 64-yard scamper, I was praying someone would tackle him, and thankfully the last defender barely managed to do so. Nugent hit the 30-yard chippie, and I was jumping up and down along with the Jets' players.


Oh, and I would have lost if Donald Driver had managed one more yard (for a five-point bonus), or if the Rams game hadn't gone into overtime, giving Jackson a chance to score again. I love this game!


Players of Note


Tom Brady – With the Patriots having clinched their division, Brady's backup Matt Cassell will likely see significant minutes this week. Last year, Brady played just one quarter in the final regular season game. Do not use Brady.


Chad Pennington – At this point it goes without saying: Do not start a QB facing Oakland, the league's premier pass defense.


Jeff Garcia – I guess we can trust Garcia to provide solid, not spectacular production by now…especially against a Falcons' pass defense ranked 25th in the league. He should be good for 250 yards and a score or two.


Ronnie Brown – Having been back just a week, owners might be hesitant to trust Brown in their championship game. That's understandable, but you have to use him against the Colts' worst run defense in the NFL. (Bob Sanders is not expected to play.) Last week Brown looked great in amassing 110 rushing yards, and he should be more productive this week, as teams have finally figured out that you run, run, run against Indy.


Steven Jackson – I think I said earlier in the year that all running backs not named Tomlinson should be benched against Minnesota. The Vikings are insane against the run, allowing just 54.5 yards per game on the ground. That's 24 yards less than the next best team! However, Jackson has been LTesque lately, totaling well over 100 yards in each of his last five games. Even if he does little with handoffs, he can do serious damage in the passing game. So, unless you have a golden matchup with another strong RB, stick with Jackson and hope for the best.


Ron Dayne – I recommended Dayne last week for his superb matchup against the Colts, and he came through to the tune of 153 yards and two scores. This week he has another tremendous matchup against the 30th-ranked run defense of the Browns. Plus, Texans Coach Gary Kubiak said Dayne should expect 30 carries. The former Heisman winner should earn his old nickname Great Dayne once again this week.


Vincent Jackson – Jackson has come out of nowhere to post two 90-yard performances in his last three games (including two scores last week). It seems he has become Philip River's primary deep threat. However, be careful about using him this week. The Chargers will likely play it safe with their key guys, and Jackson is dealing with a "tender" hamstring.


Torry Holt – Though he has not been himself as of late (only crossing the century mark once in his last nine games), Holt should bust out against a Vikings' pass defense that ranks worst in the league.


Laveranues Coles – Do not expect a bounce-back week for Coles, who killed fantasy owners with just nine yards on two catches last week. There's speculation that he's recovering from a concussion, and he faces the daunting corners of the Raiders.


Chris Cooley – After putting up 157 yards over the last two weeks, Cooley makes a nice play against the Giants.


The Trash Dump


I'm so sick of fantasy "experts" and owners groaning about LaDainian's Week 16 performance and how it cost them the championship…just because he didn't score and ONLY had 123 rushing yards. So, to all those whiners who lost with LT last week, suck it up and stop blaming the guy that got you there in the first place!

- Greg, Frederick MD

I think there is some karma in the fact that teams who relied too heavily on LT and Drew Brees ended up needing contributions from elsewhere to advance in the playoffs. Of course, that's easy for me to say, being that I had neither on my squad!

[Hache Man]

One Last Dose
I've been writing the "Daily Dose" four days per week for the past five months or so, which is why I'm both sad and a little relieved to say that today's column is my final collection of random notes, anecdotes, and opinions for the 2006 season. I've enjoyed my daily trip around the league tremendously and I sincerely hope that those of you who've stopped by to check it out regularly over the past 17 weeks have enjoyed it as well.

The regular season and my Daily Doses may be coming to an end, but RotoWorld's comprehensive fantasy football coverage never stops. We'll have complete coverage of the postseason, from the Wild Card round to the Super Bowl, at which point our second-to-none offseason coverage will begin. Whether you're a devout keeper leaguer like me or want to get the earliest possible jump on preparing for next year's draft, you'll want to continue checking out RotoWorld for the best fantasy football information anywhere.

Before I get to today's notes, I want to send a special thank you to all the readers who've sent me e-mails this year, both good and bad. Interacting with you guys is a big part of what has made doing the Daily Dose such a good experience. I'd also like to thank RotoWorld's football guru, Gregg Rosenthal, whom I've used to bounce ideas off all season. I consider myself a football junkie, but Gregg's depth of knowledge and enthusiasm for covering the NFL never ceases to amaze me.

Gregg will be spear-heading RotoWorld's postseason and offseason coverage, along with the Hardest Working Man in Fantasy Football, Evan Silva, which is why I'm confident you won't miss me and my Daily Doses one bit (and if for some odd reason you do, there's always my blog). With that sappy half-introduction, half-goodbye out of the way, here are some other notes from around football …

* Cadillac Williams' tremendously disappointing sophomore season looks likely to end on the sidelines this week. Williams remains listed as questionable with ongoing foot problems and missed practice Thursday, with coach Jon Gruden indicating that his odds of playing in Week 17 are very slim. "Carnell we have as questionable, but it doesn't appear that he will play at this point," Gruden said.

Williams got off to a great start as a rookie last season, rushing for 148, 128, and 158 yards in his first three games. However, he's topped 100 yards just five times in 25 games since then, including just twice in 14 games this season. Over that 25-game stretch, he's rushed for 1,542 yards on 427 carries, for measly averages of 3.6 yards per carry and 61 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Michael Pittman will step into the lineup for Williams and is once again a solid, underrated RB2 play. Pittman, who has served as Tampa Bay's third-down back for much of the season even with Williams healthy, rushed 16 times for 86 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 and also caught four balls for 21 yards. He's a good bet for another 20 touches this week against Seattle.

* Jeremy Shockey's ankle injury forced him to miss practice Thursday and several reports claim that he was seen walking through the locker room with a sizable limp. Coach Tom Coughlin didn't rule out Shockey playing Sunday, but indicated that he'll likely be a game-time decision at best and certainly seems resigned to Shockey sitting out. I wouldn't put it past Shockey to simply gut it out and suit up, but he's not a good bet to post solid numbers.

Two-Minute Drill: In Week 16 Steven Jackson became just the fifth player since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to top 150 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in the same game … Kevan Barlow will reportedly end his short-but-tumultuous Jets career on the inactive list … Brad Johnson is a goner as soon as the season ends, but the Vikings reportedly may turn to Brooks Bollinger as the training-camp competition for Tarvaris Jackson next year … After an uneventful first 15 weeks, Maurice Stovall's long-term stock is rising as he gets set to make his second straight start … Mike Martz gave good news to Mike Furrey owners Thursday, saying he plans to return as Lions offensive coordinator in 2007 … Despite missing four games due to a suspension, Shawne Merriman leads the NFL with 16 sacks … Speculation about Jeff Garcia's role in Philadelphia once Donovan McNabb returns has already started in the local newspapers.

Red Zone: Not only is Darrell Jackson (toe) listed as doubtful for Week 17, he's not even expected to make the trip to Florida with the team … Joe Horn (groin) is also doubtful after missing Thursday's practice and, like Jackson, has essentially been ruled out for this week … After sitting out Monday Night Football, Cedric Houston (calf) looks likely to return to the starting lineup against Oakland … Michael Strahan (foot) will reportedly avoid surgery and said Thursday that he's "planning on being back" in 2007 … Dallas Clark (knee) has been practicing fully, albeit with a knee brace, and is planning to play some in Week 17 … Despite speculation that he suffered a concussion Monday night, Laveranues Coles is expected to suit up Sunday … Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) and Fred Taylor (hamstring) appear likely to ruin each other's fantasy value by splitting carries in the season finale.

[Hache Man]

	Virus keeps Westbrook out of practice again
	Brian Westbrook - RB - PHI - Dec. 29 - 1:51 p.m. ET
	Brian Westbrook missed his second consecutive day of practice on Friday due to a viral infection, but remains probable on the injury report. The electric running back did attend morning meetings and is expected to participate in Saturday's walk-through session. Head coach Andy Reid is still counting on him being ready for Sunday's game against the Falcons.Dec. 29 - 1:51 p.m. ET Source: philadelphiaeagles.com

[Hache Man]

	C. Williams sits again on Friday
	Carnell Williams - RB - TB - Dec. 29 - 3:01 p.m. ET
	Carnell Williams (questionable, foot) missed practice again on Friday. Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden has already said that Williams is unlikely to play in Week 17, and this just about seals it. Expect Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott to carry the load against Seattle.Dec. 29 - 3:01 p.m. ET Source: The News Tribune

[Hache Man]

Ron Dayne - RB - Texans

Ron Dayne (probable, ankle) did practice Friday, despite being listed as having missed a portion of practice on the official NFL injury report.

The Texans worked indoors because of poor weather in Houston and Dayne was a participant. Coach Gary Kubiak wants Dayne to get 30 carries vs. Cleveland, which would put his season total at roughly 180. Dec. 29 - 7:40 p.m. ET

Source: houstontexans.com