Fantasy Football News 1/10/07

[Hache Man]

Top 50 Keepers for 2007

Like Herm Edwards press conferences, keeper league seasons never end. For those owners still deciding who to retain for 2007, I've listed my top 50 keepers below. www.fantasysportspicks.comwww.therx.wswww.therx.info

This is a very rough sneak peak at next year's rankings, but value will change greatly between now and August. Maurice Jones-Drew's 2007 value depends on Fred Taylor, although Mo-Jo gets a boost in keeper leagues anyhow. I suspect Taylor will stay. Corey Dillon's status affects Laurence Maroney – look for Dillon to get cut. Coaching and personnel changes will also change the landscape and keep in mind that young players get the benefit of the doubt because of the keeper format.

Because of the uncertainty in so many backfields, top wideouts and quarterbacks are ranked higher in early January rankings because their value is stable.


Editor's Note: I just started blogging over at NBCSports.com now. I'm just getting started and this week may be slow with our baseball magazine deadline looming, but I'm excited about the possibilities and will be working on it all off-season. An accompanying blog will be up at Rotoworld soon, but go check it out in the meantime and make me look cool.
2007 Top 50 Keepers

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – Who'd you expect? Keeper league owners should be rooting for another Marty Schottenheimer flameout in the playoffs to prevent overwork.

2. Steven Jackson, Rams – 150 more total yards than Larry Johnson with 83 less carries.

3. Frank Gore, 49ers – Gore's NFC West schedule and age give him an edge in 2007. He just needs Alex Smith to get better.

4. Larry Johnson, Chiefs – The numbers don't lie. We've got on off-season to talk about the issue, but Johnson's carries make him the most likely top-ten pick to miss games next season.

5. Brian Westbrook, Eagles – Not much left to prove. He's like Tiki Barber without a vulture stealing all his touchdowns.

6. Willie Parker, Steelers – Pittsburgh may try to get a bruiser to help out Parker's workload, but FWP can score from anywhere.

7. Rudi Johnson, Bengals – As consistent as fantasy football gets.

8. Joseph Addai, Colts – He isn't likely to be splitting carries next season.

9. Laurence Maroney, Patriots – Neither is Maroney. Expect Corey Dillon to move on.

10. Clinton Portis, Redskins – The early end to his season could work in his favor. He'll be fresh. So would a trade to Houston or Denver, away from Ladell Betts.

11. Chester Taylor, Vikings – The impending Tarvaris Jackson/Brooks Bollinger QB battle won't help take pressure off Taylor.

12. Reggie Bush, Saints – The possible trade of Deuce McAllister would help his value, but Bush will be productive enough if he gets 250-300 touches.

13. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – Keeper leaguers can't let him go because he's going to be a great pro. But his actual value will be blunted as long as Fred Taylor is around. The Jaguars say they want to retain Taylor if possible.

14. Chad Johnson, Bengals – Four-time winner of AFC receiving crown. The Bengals and Colts offenses don't disappoint.

15. Steve Smith, Panthers – Performed admirably despite difficult situation and doesn't have to fight teammates for targets.

16. Peyton Manning, Colts – If Manning can be the top fantasy quarterback when the Colts had an NFL record low number of possessions, what's he going do next season? Quarterbacks in general have more value as keepers than in drafts because of the uncertainty that faces so many other positions at this time of year.

17. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – The end of the Nick Saban era could mean a bigger workload and the departure of Ricky Williams. Ronnie hopes.

18. Reggie Wayne, Colts – He was Indianapolis' best receiver this season, if slightly less productive than Marvin Harrison.

19. Torry Holt, Rams – The proliferation of running back committees makes the steady elite wideouts more valuable. You know what you're getting.

20. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks – Not many runners over 30 have bounce back seasons. This is probably too high.

21. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Matt Leinart should improve. Only a terrible offensive coach could hold Fitz down.

22. Willis McGahee, Bills – McGahee may not be a difference-maker, but he's a young primary running back with no job competition.

23. Roy Williams, Lions – Year two of Mike Martz's influence won't hurt.

24. Marvin Harrison, Colts - Highly productive even when he's dropping passes.

25. Carnell Williams, Bucs – Tough guy to rank for next season. Like McGahee, he's young, talented, and has job security.

26. Marques Colston, Saints – He doesn't need to improve to be worth keeping here. If he experiences average progress, he's a top-five receiver.

27. Andre Johnson, Texans – Houston's passing game can't get worse. If we were starting an NFL team, Johnson would be the first pick at receiver.

28. Brandon Jacobs, Giants – This ranking will sink out of the top 50 if and when the Giants add a committee partner to pair with Jacobs. Losing supporters in coach Tom Coughlin and GM Ernie Accorsi won't help Jacobs' career either. For now, he's tough not to retain.

29. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – Should grow along with Matt Leinart.

30. Lee Evans, Bills – J.P. Losman looks good enough. Evans rounded out his game this season and is a complete receiver.

31. Carson Palmer, Bengals – Safe bet for 4,000+ yards and close to 30 touchdowns.

32. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals – Consistent producer and possible release of Chris Henry would help him immensely.

33. Plaxico Burress, Giants – When Burress is the most consistent part of the passing game, you know it's a goofy season in New York.

34. LaMont Jordan, Raiders – A new coach could save his football future.

35. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Should become Carolina's biggest threat on the ground next season. DeShaun Foster is a cap casualty candidate.

36. Kevin Jones, Lions – His injured foot could sideline him into 2007. But in a Mike Martz offense, keeper league owners may want to take a short-term hit next season to retain Jones for the second half of 2007 and beyond.

37. Cedric Benson, Bears – Strong closing run makes it more likely that Thomas Jones could be dealt in the off-season. It's no sure thing though.

38. Terrell Owens, Cowboys – We doubt he's back in Dallas, but he's bound to be putting up numbers somewhere. Atlanta?

39. Antonio Gates, Chargers – Survived a first-year starting quarterback to be the top fantasy tight end again.

40. Edgerrin James, Cardinals – Edge is proof that it's hard not to run for 1,150 yards. It's unlikely he'll bounce back, but he'll still pile up some numbers as a primary running back. He will be more valuable as a redraft pick.

41. Drew Brees, Saints – Why does the Saints fan in me worry that the magic pixie dust will wear off next season?

42. Marc Bulger, Rams – 4,300 yards in the first year in Scott Linehan's system. Steadiness counts and Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, and even Drew Brees face bigger question marks next season.

43. Julius Jones, Cowboys – Faces uncertain future in Dallas as starter. He's possible trade bait.

44. Leon Washington, Jets – Likely to be underrated by fantasy leaguers, Washington shows all the tools of a young Brian Westbrook.

45. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks – This is just speculation, but there have been reports that Jackson isn't thrilled to be in Seattle. He could be dangled on the trade market, which would hurt his value.

46. Jerious Norwood, Falcons – The expected return of Warrick Dunn and the arrival of Bobby Petrino makes Norwood a bigger question mark going into 2007 than we anticipated.

47. Thomas Jones, Bears – Figures to be productive somewhere.

48. Donald Driver, Packers – Would be higher on the list if we knew Brett Favre is returning.

49. Michael Turner, Chargers – Turner is a restricted free agent and the most likely result of this off-season is that the Chargers will keep him. But if there is even a 33% chance that San Diego can work out a trade that will make him a starter, he's worth keeping in most formats. It's a gamble, but we would take it over retaining Jamal Lewis or Travis Henry.

50. (tie) Vince Young, Titans – It depends on the format, but it's hard to not to retain Young if Michael Vick is his downside.

50. (tie) Michael Vick, Falcons – Coach Petrino is likely to increase the pace of Atlanta's offense, which should lead to more scoring.

Just Missed (By Position)

QB: Donovan McNabb, Tom Brady, Vince Young
RB: Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister, Marion Barber, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Travis Henry, Warrick Dunn, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell
WR: Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards, Joey Galloway, Santonio Holmes

[Hache Man]

	Hackett doubtful, Jackson questionable
	D.J. Hackett - WR - SEA - Jan. 10 - 2:03 p.m. ET
	D.J. Hackett (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Seattle's Divisional Round game Sunday. He sprained his ankle in the Wild Card round. With Darrell Jackson likely to play this week, Seattle will only occasionally use Nate Burleson as the team's fourth receiver. Mike Holmgren wouldn't completely rule out Hackett's chances after he returned for last week's game.Jan. 10 - 2:03 p.m. ET Source: The News Tribune

[Hache Man]

	Lovie: Grossman not on short leash
	Rex Grossman - QB - CHI - Jan. 10 - 11:06 a.m. ET
	Lovie Smith denied reports that Rex Grossman is on a short leash Sunday, intimating that the team will win or lose with Grossman. "Just go with our track record," Smith said. "I keep hearing these things. It hasn't happened, so where does this come from?" Perhaps this is Lovie's way of buoying Grossman's confidence, but he has a point. He hasn't touched Grossman all year. It will be interesting to see, however, how aggressively the Bears attack Seattle's thin secondary.Jan. 10 - 11:06 a.m. ET Source: Chicago Sun Times

[Hache Man]

	USC's Jarrett going pro
	Dwayne Jarrett - WR - CLG - Jan. 10 - 11:18 a.m. ET
	ESPN reports that USC WR Dwayne Jarrett will announce his declaration for the NFL Draft Wednesday. Jarrett put up over 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns against Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Pete Carroll has told the media that Jarrett is not another Mike Williams. He figures to be a first-round talent.Jan. 10 - 11:18 a.m. ET