Fantasy Football News 1/24/07

[Hache Man]

Draft '07: Mid-Week Update
The weather in Mobile isn't great. The temperature at Ladd-Peebles Stadium has yet to reach 50 degrees and it's been raining. That makes for some good adverse conditions in which to test the quarterbacks on hand, and so far Heisman Award winner Troy Smith and Michigan State's Drew Stanton have answered the bell. www.miamidolphins.wswww.greenbaypackers.ws
www.buffalobills.wswww.theplayersparadise.com

Most observers were convinced Stanton, who I touched on in our last segment of Draft '07: "Unfinished Business," was inconsistent on Monday but found a groove yesterday. Smith was regarded as the most impressive quarterback in the field the first day, when he also tipped the scales at a respectable 6-0/222. Stanton, Smith, and Houston's Kevin Kolb are vying to be the No. 3-rated signal caller heading to the Combine.

I read in this blog that the NFL Network's Mike Mayock has pinpointed Kolb as a possible fast-riser in the months leading up to April 28. It's tough to gauge how he's fared this week with a limited account of his reps in drop-back drills, but I do know one knock against Kolb is that he played in a passer-friendly spread at Houston and may struggle with an initial learning curve. Also having faced marginal competition could make that transition more difficult. His throwing motion is a wind-up, three-quarters delivery, but the ball seems to come out of his hand just fine. What stands out is Kolb's ability to release from the pocket and make throws on the run, his adequate arm strength, and his tact. Kolb threw just four interceptions to 30 touchdowns as a senior. He also ran for four.

Meanwhile, LSU's JaMarcus Russell, a Mobile native, sent his best regards to Senior Bowl participants via an unlikely source: injured Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn. Quinn and Russell, currently the draft's top two hurlers, have been training together at the Athlete's Performance Institute in Tempe, Arizona. Quinn won't practice this week or play in Saturday's game, but that doesn't mean he's not mixing it up in other ways.

Panthers Like Brady?

There is some talk around the Senior Bowl that Panthers representatives showed a special interest in Quinn when he made his surprise appearance on Monday. John Fox and Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis go way back and Carolina may be looking for 31-year-old Jake Delhomme's successor. Delhomme struggled in 2006, so Quinn could be starting by mid-season if Delhomme falters again, and the Panthers trade up in the first round. Currently holding the No. 14 overall pick, Carolina would likely have to shop a Kris Jenkins or a Chris Gamble to move up the board, possibly dangling Gamble and their pick to Detroit at No. 2. Despite a rough Sugar Bowl, I can't see Quinn falling past Miami at No. 9.

Wideouts Up and Down

We know Virginia Tech's David Clowney can separate, but can he catch the football? Granted his quarterback (redshirt sophomore Sean Glennon) was a disaster in 2006, but Clowney still managed 34 receptions. That hasn't translated to the Senior week practice field, however, as Clowney dropped numerous passes on Day One and didn't stand out yesterday. A projected mid-round selection, Clowney's sprinter speed will keep him draftable, but maybe only in the latter rounds.

The consensus is that Dwayne Bowe of LSU is the top receiver prospect at the Senior Bowl. Mayock called Bowe a certain first-round pick, and he's exceeded expectations. Aside from dropping a handful of catchable passes, Bowe's speed and body build have impressed. The Vikings, Rams, and Steelers could all have interest.

Others who have stepped up their games are sure-handed Auburn wideout Courtney Taylor, a lanky athlete with questionable straight-line speed who could help instantly in the slot, Clemson's Chansi Stuckey, and Chris Davis of Florida State. Davis has electrifying quickness but needs to polish his routes and get stronger. Stuckey is a speedy converted quarterback who could be a steal at the end of the draft's first day.

Shutdown Potential

David Irons of Auburn and Thorpe Award winner Aaron Ross have stood out as cover corners at the Senior Bowl. Irons, the running back Kenny's older brother, has been inconsistent, partially due to the fact that he's extremely aggressive. But he's made plays others at Senior week couldn't hope to make in one-on-one drills. Irons has an injury history dating back to his JUCO days that'll affect him in April but he could solidify a second- or third-round grade with a strong finish before Saturday's game.

Ross, who played at Texas, has shown exceptional footwork and an ability to stay with most wideouts. A first-team All American, Ross could fit as an instant nickel corner for a team like the Cowboys if Aaron Glenn decides to call it quits or Anthony Henry switches to centerfield. It was interesting to see Longhorns first-day safety Michael Griffin, not especially touted for his cover skills, line up in the one-on-one drills and hold his own.

Did You Say Linebacka?

As expected, Ole Miss inside linebacker Patrick Willis has been impressive so far. South coach Mike Nolan, who coached DeMeco Ryans at the Senior Bowl last year, said "(Ryans) didn't make the initial impression that Willis has on me. I'm not saying that Willis is a better player, but I'm just saying that Willis has really jumped out early on." Willis also measured in at 6-1/240, which is at least five pounds heavier than anticipated. One theory has the Giants moving up for Willis and sending Antonio Pierce to the weak side.

First Trade Rumor

The New York media has been pushing Jets and Giants management to make an offseason move for Michael Turner since last October. Apparently it may happen. One report early Tuesday afternoon said the Jets would be willing to part with the No. 25 pick overall in exchange for Turner, who would presumably be the "thunder" to Leon Washington's "lightning." The Jets will certainly continue to keep their eyes on Senior Bowl talent, however, and have already shown reported interest in Penn State's Tony Hunt and Auburn's Kenny Irons. Just about everyone likes Hunt and his improved size, so he may not be around at 25 if the Jets wait to pull the trigger on a Turner trade.

Already on the Mend

In addition to the minor "bursa sac" in Quinn's knee, some other prospects are dealing with injuries. Nimble 5-7 tailback Garrett Wolfe, the nation's leading rusher in 2006, has already dropped out of the Senior Bowl due to a hamstring suffered in practice Monday. A Darren Sproles lookalike from Northern Illinois, Wolfe entered the draft process with a wealth of injury concerns and a late middle-round grade, so if he can't perform at the Combine he might fall out of the draft altogether. First-day defensive end Dan Bazuin of Central Michigan was an absolute terror at the East-West Shrine game, recording 2.5 sacks and garnering Defensive MVP honors, but isn't participating this week due to a knee injury, the extent of which is unknown. Wisconsin left tackle Joe Thomas is skipping out and says it's because he's "not in good enough playing shape." Thomas may think he's already got a top-ten pick in the bag.

Talkative Rutgers tight end Clark Harris isn't putting to bed concerns about his toughness by quitting after the first day of drills due to a toe injury sustained in the Texas Bowl. It won't be a surprise if he falls far on draft weekend. LSU wideout Craig Davis is out with a groin injury. Likely 3-4 outside linebacker and possible first-rounder LaMarr Woodley tweaked a hammy on Monday and re-aggravated it Tuesday, forcing him from drills. His status for the game is uncertain. Washington State wideout Jason Hill, already coming off an injury-plagued season, twisted his ankle on Monday but made it out for Tuesday's session. LSU's LaRon Landry isn't at the Senior Bowl for reasons unknown and Gaines Adams, a rush end from Clemson, was told by his agent to skip the function.

East-West Shrine Game

If you caught this game last week, three players other than Bazuin had to stand out. New Hampshire's David Ball in particular dominated the contest for stretches. Analyst Bob Davie pointed out that Ball, who broke Jerry Rice's career record for touchdowns at the D-IAA level with 58, runs just like Chicago Cub Jeff Samardzija. Originally recruited to run track at New Hampshire, Ball leapt for a 51-yard grab in the game and looks sure to be drafted.

Little-known Lane's Jacoby Jones, a 6-4 specimen who accumulated over 2,000 all-purpose yards in his senior season, looked explosive in the Shrine game after a reported strong week of practice. With teams undoubtedly scouring the college ranks for the next Marques Colston, look for Jones to draw comparisons when he hits the Combine floor in February.

Fresno State wideout Paul Williams, who is also in attendance at the Senior Bowl, delivered at the East-West Shrine, torching Georgia Tech corner Kenny Scott for a 79-yard touchdown thrown by Nevada's Jeff Rowe. To cap his end-zone dash, Williams pointed back at his defender ala Reggie Bush in the NFC Championship. He later apologized for the unsportsmanlike act.

[Hache Man]

Willis on the move?
Last week, I wrote about some sinking ships across the NFL landscape. These are players, primarily under contract for 2007, who could suffer a loss in fantasy value this off-season. Some players are at risk of being released, and others could lose playing time. www.therx.wswww.sportspickwinners.comwww.eogcontests.comwww.fantasysportspicks.com

Thanks to everyone who sent in suggestions for players to write about this week. I took your advice on many below, but will save most of the free agents for our comprehensive free agent preview. Also much thanks to everyone who has been checking out the blog at NBC and making it hit on two continents.

Willis McGahee, Bills

McGahee has the salary demands of an elite player, and the numbers of a replacement level running back. His recent comments in Penthouse Magazine that the NFL should move the Bills from Buffalo to Toronto might be the last straw in a proud city.

I believe Marv Levy will let some other team pay McGahee's child support. Both New York teams, Denver, Houston, and Atlanta could be a fit. McGahee might be worth a second-round draft pick, but his contract demands could make a trade difficult. Even Clinton Portis wasn't worth the contract Washington gave him after two seasons and McGahee is not nearly as good a runner. I would guess McGahee has a 50/50 shot to return to Buffalo.

Clinton Portis, Redskins

It's amazing that Frank Gore is now the most valuable University of Miami running back. There have been rumblings that Portis could be available in a trade, but the cap hit to Washington would be significant because of his huge contract and signing bonus from 2005. Washington has enough cap problems without paying starter money to get rid of one of their best players.

Portis makes a lot of sense in Houston or back in Denver, but Washington may as well keep Portis if he's going to be on the books. His play on Sundays isn't the problem. Ladell Betts could steal more carries than usual, but I think Portis is set up for a big season. He'll be well rested.

Julius Jones, Cowboys

Julius was in the Bears locker room with his brother Thomas following the Chicago NFC Championship title. Will that be the closest Julius comes to being a starter in the Super Bowl?

With Bill Parcells out of Dallas, Jones has lost his primary supporter. He was already mentioned as a possible trade candidate this off-season even before Parcells left. Thomas didn't fulfill his potential until he left his original team, so perhaps a move could help.

While the Cowboys may see what Jones is worth on the trade market, they would best be served by bringing back Jones and Marion Barber and letting them battle for carries. Jones is explosive, but doesn't have great vision. Barber is a complete back, but has never carried a full load of carries, dating back to college. Fantasy owners don't want to hear it, but two backs are better than one.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins

Nick Saban saw something special in Ricky Williams as a player and as a person. Saban told the Miami media after he left he thought Ricky was worth a few wins on his own.

It's uncertain if Cam Cameron will feel the same, but it's worth that noting that Dolphins GM Randy Mueller traded Ricky once when he ran the Saints. He also wrote about Ricky's eccentricities at length working for ESPN.com. If Mueller stays on as GM, Ricky should go.

Ricky could be worth a fourth-round draft pick and the Dolphins would happily move on with Ronnie Brown. Denver, Houston, Atlanta, and Oakland are all logical fits. His fantasy value would be substantial in any of those locations.

Joe Horn, Saints

It's been a great ride. If Horn is cut this off-season, he'll leave as the best receiver in Saints franchise history. Horn is due $4.45 million next season and the team will ask him to take a paycut to stay. He is still a useful weapon in the offense, but is no longer explosive and has missed nine games in two seasons. Sean Payton also proved that he can make any receiver look good.

The Saints would take a decent cap hit to release him, but they have the salary cap room to do so if they choose. I think it makes sense for both sides to work something out. However Horn may believe he's still a number one receiver and force his way out. Leaving the Saints wouldn't help his fantasy value.

Domanick Williams (Davis), Texans

A lot of emails came into the mail box regarding the former Mr. Davis. The Texans act as if he doesn't exist. Many writers believe his career is over. Gary Kubiak will probably operate under the assumption that Williams won't be back. If he stays healthy in training camp, he will become a trading chip or compete for carries. Either way, it's a longshot that he will ever a top fantasy pick again.

Deuce McAllister, Saints

McAllister surprised a lot of people, including his own coaching staff, with his great post-ACL surgery effort in 2006. His base salary and bonuses only add up to $3.7 million in 2007. He wouldn't be free to deal because of his signing bonus from 2005.

The Saints would probably listen to trade offers for McAllister, but why mess with a good thing? Unless they got a first-round pick back (unlikely), they may as well hold on to him. McAllister and Reggie Bush make each other better. I doubt Deuce will get any more touches or touchdowns in 2007, so he's not a bad sell-high candidate.

Jake Plummer, Broncos

Plummer made it clear that he won't back up Jay Cutler in Denver. For all his faults, Plummer was a mostly consistent fantasy option and the Broncos didn't exactly surround him with talent this season. A trade to Houston to re-join Gary Kubiak makes perfect sense and would put Plummer back on the fantasy radar. In that scenario, he would have to compete with Sage Rosenfels for snaps. Which means someone else is moving on …

David Carr, Texans

A fresh start would serve Carr well, and the Texans appear willing to oblige. There is a big list of teams in need of a veteran quarterback this off-season. Here are a few that could show interest in Carr: Oakland, Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay, Washington, and Tampa Bay. The track record isn't there, but Carr would be a very popular target on the trade market and could net a first or second round pick. Young quarterbacks don't just come cheaply.


Byron Leftwich, Jaguars

The fans and media in Jacksonville wanted David Garrard. When they got him, they received startlingly similar numbers to Byron Leftwich. Garrard couldn't even hold on to the job, as Quinn Gray gave the Jaguars a shot in the arm with a great Week 17 effort.

Jack Del Rio has to make a choice between Leftwich and Garrard and I suspect he'll choose Leftwich. He was the one who drafted Leftwich. Dirk Koetter, the team's new offensive coordinator, doesn't require mobility in his offense but does require a big arm. Garrard could be moved for a second or third round pick to one of the quarterback hungry teams. Leftwich may cost a little more.

Troy Williamson, Vikings

Minnesota will bring in every veteran receiver possible this off-season, and then draft one or two more. Williamson is only 24, but he faces a vital off-season for his development. He could be at risk of losing a starting gig for good.

Mike Williams, Lions

A lot of people ripped the Vikings during the 2005 draft for passing on Mike Williams to draft Williamson. Who knew it didn't make a difference? There is an outside chance Mike Williams gets cut, and the Lions appear to have low expectations for the USC product. If he becomes a useful slot receiver, they will be pleasantly surprised. Expect Detroit to keep Detroit Mike Furrey and add more talent.

Edgerrin James, Cardinals

Many readers wanted my take on James this off-season. There isn't much to talk about really. New Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt may focus on the run more and should build a better offensive line. That's good news. James is a year older and is approaching 3,000 touches for his career. The Cardinals could also add talent behind him. That's the bad news.

Add it up, and I see more of the same for Edge.

Muhsin Muhammad, Bears

Muhammad's career year was in 2004, so it's easy to forget that he's finished 11 NFL seasons.

Still a useful pro, his days as a fantasy factor could be coming to an end. Bernard Berrian will pass him in production next season and Mark Bradley could be next.

Chris Brown, Titans

I saved most of the free agents for our upcoming preview, but many people emailed about Brown. It's hard to imagine a great career comeback here. He was below average in 2005 and lost his job to Travis Henry in 2006. Brown is talented enough to be a quality third-down back, but don't expect more.

Rod Smith, Broncos

He didn't have any fantasy value in 2006, and I doubt he'll have a starting job in 2007. If you can still get anything at all for Smith, do it now before he retires.

[Hache Man]

	Lions reach deal with Mike Furrey
	Mike Furrey - WR - DET - Jan. 24 - 8:12 a.m. ET
	The Lions have reached a three-year contract agreement with Mike Furrey. Furrey's ability to maintain his production will depend on whether Detroit signs another starting-caliber receiver. They are likely to show interest in Kevin Curtis.Jan. 24 - 8:12 a.m. ET Source: Detroit Free Press

[Hache Man]

	Garcia ready to hit free agency
	Jeff Garcia - QB - PHI - Jan. 24 - 7:40 a.m. ET
	On the Tonight Show with Jay Leno, Jeff Garcia said he was eager to test free agency. They couldn't get a better guest? "I'll definitely be testing the waters," Garcia said. "I've got to see what's out there." Garcia is seemingly too competitive to be a backup if he has a chance to start elsewhere. We doubt he'll be back in Philadelphia.Jan. 24 - 7:40 a.m. ET Source: Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News