Fantasy Football News 1/30/07

[Hache Man]

Don't Look Back in Anger
It's hard to look back. When the Patriots blew the AFC Championship game last week, I didn't want to watch the highlights. With the NFL season down to one final game remaining, I'd rather dive into the off-season and start looking ahead to 2007. In fact, we've already broken ground on Rotoworld's 2007 football annual. eog.com Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks therx.com therx.com Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football* - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice

All that said, some self-scouting can be a good thing. Before busting open our 2007 free agency preview, we'll use this week to put a bow on the 2006 season. Focusing on the top fantasy scorers when possible, we'll look at some projections we got right, some we got wrong, and how we can apply what we learned to the 2007 season. Today, we'll look at the top five fantasy running backs and a handful of interesting quarterbacks.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers

Predicted Position Rank: 1, Actual Position Rank: 1
Predicted Fantasy Points: 319, Actual Fantasy Points: 427

What we said then: "LT2 still gets our edge as the top overall player because he's durable, consistent, and his receiving skills are the best at his position. He's our clear-cut choice in PPR leagues."
What Happened: 2,000 total yards and twenty scores proved to be too conservative. Tomlinson got the ball endlessly in the red zone, but also had his highest yards-per-carry average and rushing attempts since 2003. It was probably the greatest fantasy football season of all-time.
Next Year: Tomlinson has never been hurt and will slow down eventually… but there isn't a reasonable argument against LT2 as the top pick next year.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs

Predicted Position Rank: 2, Actual Position Rank: 2
Predicted Fantasy Points: 309, Actual Fantasy Points: 334

What we said then: "The change in coaching staff can't be good news… Johnson should not slip out of the top three in any format. He has the best chance to top 2,000 yards of the group, but also has the most change going on around him."
What Happened: Johnson was fantastic again, but Herm Edwards ran him into the ground. While still the second best fantasy option, Johnson's 4.3 yards-per-carry average was down almost a yard from the year before. Kansas City's tepid offense gave him fewer chances to score.
Next Year: The effect of Johnson's 416 carries will be the story of the fantasy off-season. Kansas City's aging offensive line won't help either. It will be tough to rank him outside the top five, but Frank Gore and Steven Jackson are legitimate threats to pass Johnson.

Steven Jackson, Rams

Predicted Position Rank: 9, Actual Position Rank: 3
Predicted Fantasy Points: 212, Actual Fantasy Points: 329

What we said then: "Jackson must play better through minor injuries to emerge as a true RB1. His numbers faded in the second half of the season. … As likely as any young back to 'break out,' he's worth a late first-round pick.
What Happened: With Marshall Faulk gone, Steven Jackson became the best receiving back in football. He finished with 90 catches and 806 yards through the air, and was the best fantasy back in the league in December.
Next Year: Jackson's slow build to 436 career touches in 2006 should serve him well. He's young and will be playing on a high powered offense in an easy division. As long as Faulk doesn't return, he's the favorite to be our number two ranked runner.

Frank Gore, 49ers

Predicted Position Rank: 19, Actual Position Rank: 4
Predicted Fantasy Points: 176, Actual Fantasy Points: 272

What we said then: "The hiring of Norv Turner promises a power running attack that should suit Gore. The trade of Kevan Barlow means Turner will rely heavily on Gore to produce ... (He) isn't without risk, but he has the skill set to be a quality RB2."
What Happened: Believe it or not, ranking Gore 19th at running back was high enough to land him in nearly every league. Turns out we didn't rank him high enough. Gore stayed healthy, overcame early fumbling problems, and ran as hard as any runner in the league.
Next Year: Get running backs while they are young. Gore has a complete game and should remain a top-five performer.

Willie Parker, Steelers

Predicted Position Rank: 11, Actual Position Rank: 5
Predicted Fantasy Points: 207, Actual Fantasy Points: 268

What we said then: "Pittsburgh should remain a run-first team with an excellent offensive line. Parker will be used in tandem, but should see the ball a little more. He looks like an explosive RB 1/2 who may be undervalued in fantasy leagues.
What Happened: Parker wasn't used in tandem because he was excellent and the rest of the Pittsburgh backs were poor. Parker proved to be a true RB1. While he was inconsistent on the road, Parker proved he could handle 300 carries. He topped 130 yards five times.
Next Year: Parker still doesn't help in the passing game and the Steelers may try to bring in a third down back. He's a RB1, but has an uphill battle to remain a top five option. He will probably stay in the top ten of our position rankings.

Carson Palmer, Bengals

Predicted Position Rank: 2, Actual Position Rank: 5
Predicted Fantasy Points: 313, Actual Fantasy Points: 304

What we said then: "If he plays in September, consider him a top-five quarterback."
What Happened: After a poor Week 1, Palmer showed very little rust. His yardage and yards-per-attempt actually improved.
Next Year: With a normal off-season ahead, Palmer should battle Peyton Manning for top QB honors. He'll probably come at a better value.

Marc Bulger, Rams

Predicted Position Rank: 5, Actual Position Rank: 3
Predicted Fantasy Points: 296, Actual Fantasy Points: 307

What we said then: "Bulger is riskier than other top quarterbacks because of his injuries and the coaching change. But he's as likely as anyone to throw for 4,500 yards and/or 30 touchdowns… we think Bulger's high ceiling is a gamble worth taking."
What Happened: Bulger finally played 16 games, and actually threw more per-game than under Mike Martz. Scott Linehan talked balance in the preseason, but this was still a pass-first offense.
Next Year: He's a slightly bigger injury risk than the other top quarterbacks, but Bulger is firmly entrenched as an elite QB1 option.

Drew Brees, Saints

Predicted Position Rank: 20, Actual Position Rank: 2
Predicted Fantasy Points: 227, Actual Fantasy Points: 317

What we said then: "He didn't have a strong arm before shoulder surgery, and Chad Pennington's problems from last season are worth remembering… Camp reports will determine his final ranking, but he's a risky QB2 pick regardless."
What Happened: Brees regained his arm strength by midseason, but he was racking up yards before that. Sean Payton proved to be one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, and Brees turned Devery Henderson, Marques Colston, and Terrance Copper into legitimate options.
Next Year: The final numbers will be almost impossible to maintain, but it's a good sign for Brees that he finished fifth in pass attempts despite playing for a winning team (and barely playing Week 17). Brees could be overvalued, but the potential to bust isn't great.

Michael Vick, Falcons

Predicted Position Rank: 8, Actual Position Rank: 3
Predicted Fantasy Points: 275, Actual Fantasy Points: 307

What we said then: "His rushing totals give him a ridiculous advantage over the competition. Even at his worst, he has value. It will not cost much to draft Vick, and he can easily be paired with a consistent QB2 at a low cost. This is the year to try it.
What Happened: Vick beat our optimistic projections, but the Atlanta wideouts didn't develop as we hoped. Rushing for over 1,000 yards and throwing a career high 20 scores made Vick a confusing, but satisfying fantasy quarterback.
Next Year: Vick's rushing totals probably aren't repeatable. New coach Bobby Petrino has a great history of offensive success at Louisville, but who knows if it will translate. We're not worried about Vick losing his starting job, but he'll be a riskier pick than usual coming off this season.

Jake Plummer, Broncos

Predicted Position Rank: 10, Actual Position Rank: 27
Predicted Fantasy Points: 267, Actual Fantasy Points: 148

What we said then: "At worst, Plummer is a get-by fantasy quarterback who won't win or lose games. At best, the Broncos will throw the ball more with Walker, and Plummer will be a difference maker."
What Happened: Along with Kurt Warner, this was one of our worst outlooks - Plummer was a disaster from day one. While the offensive talent around him didn't help, Plummer played like someone looking over his shoulder. Mike Shanahan smartly replaced him with Jay Cutler.
Next Year: Plummer should get a chance to compete start next season for a team like the Texans, Vikings, or Packers. He's still young, so Plummer would qualify as a buy-low late QB2 in the right situation.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Predicted Position Rank: 11, Actual Position Rank: 10
Predicted Fantasy Points: 253, Actual Fantasy Points: 246

What we said then: "We have no doubt Big Ben is ready to make substantial improvement, if he gets 450 pass attempts. Until that happens, he's a borderline QB1/2 pick but not an every week fantasy starter."
What Happened: Ben threw the ball 469 times, topping 300 for the first time in his career. His 23 interceptions made it a terrible NFL year, but Roethlisberger made strides in fantasy leagues by hitting a lot of deep passes. His career low in yards-per-attempt was still good for seventh in the league.
Next Year: The Steelers lost much of their offensive staff. Ben has always maintained a high YPA average, so he could prove to be a fine QB1 bargain in fantasy leagues with Santonio Holmes developing.

Daunte Culpepper, Dolphins

Predicted Position Rank: 13, Actual Position Rank: 43
Predicted Fantasy Points: 251, Actual Fantasy Points: 60

What we said then: "He won't be a sure thing in Miami even if he is 100%. If he misses a chunk of the season, he'll only provide the value of a QB2. We'd stay away."
What Happened: That outlook doesn't quite match up with our predicted rank. After watching Culpepper's solid preseason, we caved and moved him up from 19th. Bad move. Culpepper wasn't healthy, but his inability to read defenses hurt him more.
Next Year: He will probably battle Cleo Lemon for the starting job. Culpepper's work ethic and football intelligence have been questioned repeatedly. He has a lot to prove.