Fantasy Baseball News 2007

[Hache Man]

Non-Tenders & Trade Talk
Notes column this week.

Trade Talk

Despite a monster trade that seemed to come together and get executed in a 24-hour span, the winter meetings were definitely disappointing as far as the ratio of gossip and speculation to actual news. As a result, there are still plenty of star pitchers and quality regulars in play in trade talks. Let's run through a few of the names.

Johan Santana (Twins) - Rotoworld's new favorite player. Santana has set site records for most blurbs in a day (28 on Dec. 4), most blurbs in a year and most consecutive days with at least one blurb on the site (11/22-12/8). We probably would have set a traffic record last week anyway -- the winter meetings have traditionally been our busiest time of the year, as football and the other sports are generating plenty of hits, too -- but thanks in no small part to Santana (the front offices of the Twins, Red Sox and Yankees deserve plenty of credit as well) we received about twice as many page views as we did a year ago. minnesotatwins.com

While nothing ended up happening with Boston or any other team last week, the consensus is that Santana will be traded. The Twins can talk about reopening negotiations, but if they didn't present their absolute best offer before making Santana available for all the world to bid on, they're crazy. The Red Sox probably won't budge from including more than one of the big three (Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury or Jon Lester), but there is some room for flexibility there. It helps that the Twins seem particularly high on Lester, the one of the three the Red Sox are the most willing to give up. The Red Sox seem to still be the favorites here. However, it's no better than a 50/50 proposition now after looking more like 80/20 for a time last week.

No one seems to buy the New York Daily News report that the Yankees turned down the chance to get Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, a decent arm in Jeff Marquis and a lesser infield prospect in Mitch Hilligoss. If the Twins decide that it's the Hughes-Cabrera package they want over everything else that's been offered, it'll likely be back out on the table for them. The Mets are running third in this race with no major league-ready pitching stud to offer. Mike Pelfrey's stock has tumbled, and Kevin Mulvey isn't going to be a No. 1 or a No. 2. Deolis Guerra is the Mets' best pitching prospect, though he had some shoulder trouble last season and his name hasn't come up often. If the Mets were willing to give up both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, plus two from the Pelfrey-Mulvey-Guerra group, it really should be plenty to buy one year of Santana. More likely, the Mets will insist on keeping one of the two outfielders, leaving them without enough to tempt the Twins. newyorkmets.com

Unless something happens this week, odds are that talks will linger into January, increasing the chances that a surprise contender will emerge. It's more likely to be the Angels than the Dodgers or Mariners. I'm guessing the matter won't be settled until after New Year's Day.

Erik Bedard (Orioles) - More affordable than Santana when it comes to salary, if not in terms of the prospects it'd take to acquire him, Bedard has about a dozen suitors. Unfortunately, the Orioles seem to have taken three of the better ones out of the mix, as owner Peter Angelos doesn't want his top pitcher moved within the division. It's a silly way of thinking, in my opinion -- Baltimore has no chance of overtaking the Red Sox or Yankees in the next couple of years, and taking away a large chunk of young talent from one of those teams could prove very beneficial by the time 2010 or 2011 rolls around -- but that's simply the new Oriole Way. Regardless of whether they have Bedard, the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays will still make Camden Yards their playground. baltimoreorioles.com

The other top bidders for Bedard appear to be the Mariners, Dodgers and Reds. The Mets have already been shot down at least once. Other candidates to be in the mix include the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Angels, Indians, Phillies and Cubs. It appears that Cincinnati is willing to part with Homer Bailey and a hitter not named Jay Bruce. Joey Votto is the logical candidate, though Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion are also possibilities. That doesn't necessarily top a Dodgers package including either Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, but it is very good. The Mariners would have to give up Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and maybe Wladimir Balentien. There's also been talk of George Sherrill, but he's a lot more valuable to a contending Mariners team than he would be to Baltimore's rebuilding effort. It looks like something will get done with one of the three teams. My guess would be Seattle.

Dan Haren & Joe Blanton (Athletics) - The Diamondbacks keep getting mentioned in connection with Haren, while things remain quiet on the Blanton front. A's GM Billy Beane has said the price for the two would be similar, but the truth is that Haren will be supremely expensive. Blanton is the better bet of the two to go, perhaps to the Mets or Dodgers. Blanton for Carlos Gomez would give the A's the center fielder they desire. Ideally, they could acquire Kemp for him instead, but that's unlikely to happen. Blanton to Milwaukee for Chris Capuano and Dave Bush would also make sense. The Brewers need quality more than quantity when it comes to starting pitching, and it would allow them to save a little money.

Miguel Tejada (Orioles) - Even though his contract is pretty affordable at $13 million per season through 2009, Tejada just isn't being valued as a top property by other teams in trade talks. Most teams see him as a third baseman, not a shortstop, and they say that his power production is on the decline. Tejada did deliver 10 homers in August, so it's not like he was completely impotent last season. Still, the perception of Camden Yards as a bandbox isn't helping things, and Tejada hit just a third of his 18 homers on the road last year. Tejada remains more likely than Brian Roberts to be traded, even though he might not net quite as much in return as the second baseman. There still might be something brewing with the Astros, who have Chris Burke, Adam Everett, Luke Scott and some young pitching to part with. They're one of the few teams that would use him at short. The Giants and Angels appear to be out of the bidding. What'd be fascinating would be to see him go back to Oakland, perhaps for Blanton and Bobby Crosby.

Brandon Inge (Tigers) - Is it worth trading for Inge, who is owed $19.1 million over three seasons, when Pedro Feliz could surely be had for less? The two are similar players. Both are tremendously underrated defensive third baseman -- Feliz is probably the best in the game right now, while Inge has more range than anyone else at the position -- with reputations as all or nothing hitters. Feliz delivers the "nothing" part of the equation more frequently. His career high in OBP is .305, and he's at .288 lifetime. Inge has been at .330, .313 and .312 the last three years. He was probably an above average regular in 2005 and 2006, when he hit 27 homers, but he lost much of his power and finished with a 688 OPS last season. I'd take Inge going forward, but he'd still only be worth acquiring if the Tigers picked up some of his contract. The Phillies and Dodgers have reportedly signaled to GM Dave Dombrowski that they're not interested. The Giants might be if they lose Feliz.


Potential Non-Tenders

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible non-tender candidates. There will also be some zero-to-three players non-tendered and then often re-signed to minor league deals, but picking them out of the crowd is a more difficult exercise. Wednesday is the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

Likely: C Johnny Estrada (Mets), OF Craig Monroe (Twins), INF Felipe Lopez (Nationals), 3B Morgan Ensberg (Padres), OF Emil Brown (Royals), 1B Ben Broussard (Mariners), OF Kevin Mench (Brewers), C Miguel Olivo (Marlins), LHP Mark Hendrickson (Dodgers), LHP Horacio Ramirez (Mariners), LHP Neal Cotts (Cubs), OF Jason Lane (Padres), OF Cory Sullivan (Rockies), RHP Brendan Donnelly (Red Sox), LHP John Parrish (Mariners), LHP Wilfredo Ledezma (Padres), RHP Greg Aquino (Brewers), RHP Seth McClung (Brewers), RHP Grant Balfour (Rays), RHP Dave Borkowski (Astros), C Eric Munson (Brewers), RHP Brandon Duckworth (Royals), RHP Ryan Wagner (Nationals)

Of the first eight hitters on the list, Lopez and Brown probably have the best chances of survival. The Nationals are publically talking about keeping Lopez and putting him back at second base, though that may only be in the hopes of generating more interest in him. He's due $4 million-$4.5 million in his final year of arbitration. I've long assumed Brown would go, but the Royals still have room for him in left field if they want to bring him back. They could do better for the $3.5 million he's likely to collect. … Ramirez needs to get back to the NL if he's going to have a shot at putting his career back together. There should be plenty of interest, with Philadelphia possibly leading the way. … The Red Sox will probably non-tender and then re-sign Donnelly, who is expected to miss much of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Less Likely: 3B Joe Crede (White Sox), RHP Mark Prior (Cubs), RHP Akinori Otsuka (Padres), RHP John Patterson (Nationals), OF Xavier Nady (Pirates), OF Marcus Thames (Tigers), RHP Luis Ayala (Nationals), LHP Gustavo Chacin (Blue Jays), RHP Claudio Vargas (Brewers), RHP Josh Towers (Blue Jays), RHP Jorge Sosa (Mets), RHP Tim Redding (Nationals), RHP Chad Durbin (Tigers), OF Jason Tyner (Twins), OF Tike Redman (Orioles), OF Chris Snelling (Phillies), RHP Yhency Brazoban (Dodgers), RHP Vinnie Chulk (Giants), RHP Todd Coffey (Reds), RHP Tyler Yates (Braves), RHP Kyle Snyder (Red Sox), LHP Lenny DiNardo (Athletics), OF Jason Repko (Dodgers), INF Jason Smith (Royals), RHP Luke Hudson (Royals)

Crede and Prior might not have a lot of trade value, but they should fetch back a couple of lesser prospects apiece. Neither needs to be non-tended. … Otsuka's rehab from his elbow injury seems to be going well, so the Rangers will probably offer him a contract. That Eric Gagne signed elsewhere only makes that a more likely scenario. … Thames and Durbin would have qualified as big surprises a week ago, but with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis on the roster, the Tigers need to free up money and have put both on the trading block. Thames, in particular, should have some trade value. … The Blue Jays have indicated they don't plan to non-tender any of their pitchers, even though Chacin and Towers figure to be long-shot rotation candidates at best. Chacin is eligible for arbitration for the first time, so it'll be worth $1 million or so to see if he can bounce back and contribute. Towers isn't worth keeping around at the $3 million-$3.5 million he's likely to command.
WEBSITE.WS - Your Internet Address For Life™
Already Dropped: OF Scott Podsednik (White Sox), INF Jose Castillo (Pirates), OF So Taguchi (Cardinals), INF Jorge Cantu (Reds), INF Alex Cintron (White Sox), OF Terrmel Sledge (Padres), RHP Julio Mateo (Phillies), LHP Dave Williams (Mets), RHP Chin-Hui Tsao (Dodgers), 1B Josh Phelps (Pirates), OF Willie Harris (Braves), OF Timo Perez (Tigers), OF David Newhan (Mets), RHP Lance Cormier (Braves), RHP Chad Paronto (Braves), OF Laynce Nix (Brewers)



Rule 5 Wrap

Believing it was easier to find the next Joakim Soria or Kevin Cameron than a Josh Hamilton or Dan Uggla, teams mostly decided to look for bullpen help in the Rule 5 draft. 14 of the 18 players to go were pitchers and 12 will only be considered for bullpen duty in spring training. The pitchers with a chance of claiming rotation spots were R.A. Dickey (Mariners) and Travis Blackley (Phillies). Not coincidentally, those two happened to be the only players chosen that were signed to minor league contracts after the season. The Twins brought in Dickey with an eye towards potentially making the knuckleballer their fifth starter. Blackley, unlike Dickey, would seem to have a much better chance of winning a job with his new team after initially being re-signed by the Giants.

Besides Dickey and Blackley, I think the best bets to stick are Brian Barton (Cardinals), Randor Bierd (Orioles), Carlos Guevara (Padres) and Fernando Hernandez Jr. (Athletics). Barton seems like the only fantasy sleeper of the bunch, and he'll have to prove he's 100 percent after September knee surgery. Despite being old for his leagues, Barton, an undrafted free agent out of Miami in 2004, was a consensus top-10 prospect in the Indians chain after hitting .323/.412/.511 between Single-A Kinston and Double-A Akron in 2006. In 2007, he batted .314/.416/.440 in 389 AB for Akron before struggling some in a late-season stint in Triple-A (.264/.333/.333 in 87 AB). He's a pretty good center fielder, and he has 30-steal ability, assuming that he's past his knee issues. If he loses a step, then he might not be much more than a fourth outfielder. The Cardinals figure to give him at-bats over Jim Edmonds and Chris Duncan against left-handers, with the possibility of a more significant role once someone gets hurt. He'll be worth a late-round pick in NL-only leagues.


Free Agency Review

A quick glance at how last month's predictions (Hitters, Pitchers) are holding up for the free agents that have already signed.

Jorge Posada - Yankees
Prediction: Yankees - four years, $56 million
Actual: Yankees - four years, $52.4 million

Yorvit Torrealba - Rockies
Prediction: Marlins - two years, $9 million
Actual: Rockies - two years, $7.25 million with $4 million mutual option for 2010

Michael Barrett - Padres
Prediction: Rockies - one year, $2.5 million
Actual: Padres - accepted arbitration

Jason Kendall - Cubs
Prediction: Padres - one year, $2 million
Actual: Brewers - one year, $4.25 million with $4.25 million option for 2009

Luis Castillo - Mets
Prediction: Mets - two years, $13 million
Actual: Mets - four years, $25 million
newyorkmets.com
Kaz Matsui - Rockies
Prediction: Cubs - three years, $13.5 million
Actual: Astros - three years, $16.5 million

Mark Loretta - Astros
Prediction: Astros - one year, $3 million
Actual: Astros - accepted arbitration

Alex Rodriguez - Yankees
Prediction: Angels - eight years, $260 million
Actual: Yankees - 10 years, $275 million plus $30 million in incentives

Mike Lowell - Red Sox
Prediction: Red Sox - three years, $45 million
Actual: Red Sox - three years, $37.5 million

Torii Hunter - Twins
Prediction: Yankees - six years, $96 million
Actual: Angels - five years, $80 million

Andruw Jones - Braves
Prediction: Dodgers - three years, $54 million
Actual: Dodgers - two years, $36.2 million
atlantabraves.com
Jose Guillen - Mariners
Prediction: Royals - two years, $16 million
Actual: Royals - three years, $36 million

Milton Bradley - Padres
Prediction: Cardinals - one year, $5 million with club option for 2009
Actual: Rangers - one year, $5 million (reportedly)

Andy Pettitte - Yankees
Prediction: Yankees - one year, $16 million
Actual: Yankees - Accepted arbitration

Curt Schilling - Red Sox
Prediction: Red Sox - one year, $13 million
Actual: Red Sox - one year, $8 million (plus $6 million in incentives)

Kenny Rogers - Tigers
Prediction: Tigers - one year, $8 million
Actual: Tigers - one year, $8 million (plus $2 million in incentives)

Tom Glavine - Mets
Prediction: Braves - one year, $7 million
Actual: Braves - one year, $8 million

Randy Wolf - Dodgers
Prediction: Angels - one year, $5 million (plus incentives)
Actual: Padres - one year, $4 million (plus $5 million in incentives)

Mariano Rivera - Yankees
Prediction: Yankees - three years, $40 million
Actual: Yankees - three years, $45 million

Francisco Cordero - Brewers
Prediction: Brewers - four years, $40 million
Actual: Reds - four years, $46 million

Scott Linebrink - Brewers
Prediction: Yankees - four years, $24 million
Actual: White Sox - four years, $19 million

Todd Jones - Tigers
Prediction: Tigers - one year, $6 million
Actual: Tigers - one year, $7 million

Eric Gagne - Red Sox
Prediction: Rangers - one year, $5 million plus incentives
Actual: Brewers - one year, $10 million (plus $1 million in incentives)

Masahide Kobayashi - Japan
Prediction: Mariners - three years, $15 million
Actual: Indians - two years, $6.25 million with $3.25 million club option for 2010

David Riske - Royals
Prediction: Phillies - three years, $13.5 million
Actual: Brewers - three years, $13 million with $4.75 million club option for 2011

Kerry Wood - Cubs
Prediction: Cubs - one year, $4 million plus incentives
Actual: Cubs - one year, $4.25 million (plus $3.45 million in incentives)

J.C. Romero - Phillies
Prediction: Phillies - three years, $12 million
Actual: Phillies - three years, $12 million with $4.75 million club option for 2011

LaTroy Hawkins - Rockies
Prediction: Athletics - two years, $7.5 million
Actual: Yankees - one year, $3.75 million (reportedly)

Yasuhiko Yabuta - Japan
Prediction: White Sox - three years, $9 million
Actual: Royals - two years, $6 million with $4 million club option for 2010

[Hache Man]

Winter League Action
I'm waist deep in draft guide projections and writeups, so these next couple of columns won't be quite as wordy as usual. Up this week is a look at how players are performing in winter ball.

Dominican Winter League

Erick Aybar - SS Angels
.246/.289/.342, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 15/6 K/BB, 7 SB in 114 AB

One very important thing to remember about these stats is that the DWL as a whole has a 650 OPS right now. MLB teams were about 110 points better last season. Aybar isn't far short of average for his league. That said, he's done little to help his case as the favorite to replace Orlando Cabrera as the Angels' shortstop. Maicer Izturis is the better player right now.

Willy Aybar - 3B Braves
.269/.356/.333, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 7/11 K/BB, 1 SB in 78 AB
atlantabraves.com
The Aybars were teammates on the Licey Tigers, but Willy hasn't played in a couple of weeks. It remains unclear what the Braves will do with him after he missed most of last season due to substance abuse troubles and a fractured hamate. It wouldn't be much of a surprise to see him come available on waivers during March.

Angel Berroa - SS Royals
.257/.333/.321, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 15/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 109 AB

Berroa isn't inspiring anyone to take a flier on him. He'll have little chance of making the Royals in the final year of his four-year, $11 million contract, and the team might finally release him in spring training.

Billy Butler - 1B/DH Royals
.234/.308/.298, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 11/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 47 AB

Butler took a scheduled leave of absence early last month to get married. He was supposed to return after Thanksgiving, but it still hasn't happened, suggesting that his winter is over. Since he didn't get much of a chance to work on his defense at first base, the Royals are probably going to use him as a designated hitter.

Jose Capellan - RHP Rockies
3-2, 2.73 ERA, 33 H, 27/12 K/BB in 33 IP

Although he's pitching quite well as a starter, the Rockies figure to keep Capellan in the pen after picking him up from the Tigers this month.

Alexi Casilla - 2B Twins
.285/.363/.323, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 18/14 K/BB, 11 SB in 130 AB
minnesotatwins.com
The Twins' pickups of Adam Everett and Mike Lamb mean that Casilla is due for some additional Triple-A team. He'll have only a slight chance of beating out Brendan Harris and Nick Punto for the second-base job.

Francisco Cruceta - RHP Tigers
1-1, 0.87 ERA, 13 H, 27/10 K/BB in 20 2/3 IP

Cruceta's showing recently earned him a major league deal. He'll make the Tigers as a middle reliever with a strong spring.

Nelson Cruz - OF Rangers
.326/.406/.477, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 16/10 K/BB, 1 SB in 86 AB
texasrangers.com
Cruz falls a little short of qualifying for the batting title, but if he did, he'd rank second in the league in average and first in OPS. Fortunately or unfortunately, most of his production has come versus lefties (11-for-17, four walks). On the plus side, he can still have a meaningful career as a lefty killer. However, he's going to need to do a better job versus righties in order to force the Rangers to give him another chance as a regular.

Johnny Cueto - RHP Reds
4-1, 2.84 ERA, 31 H, 37/7 K/BB in 31 2/3 IP

Over 190 innings for the year, Cueto was shut down after his sixth start on Nov. 28. He's due to open 2008 in the minors, but he's more polished than Homer Bailey and is a definite sleeper for next year.

Kyle Davies - RHP Royals
1-1, 3.76 ERA, 20 H, 22/12 K/BB in 26 1/3 IP

Davies also was shut down last month. He projects as the Royals' fourth or fifth starter at the moment, but the team shouldn't be afraid to bump him if better solutions come along.

Alejandro De Aza - OF Marlins
.195/.259/.325, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 17/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 77 AB

De Aza won't be opening a second straight year as the Marlins' center fielder. He's a long-term reserve at best, and he could use a full year in Triple-A.

Victor Diaz - OF Free Agent
.183/.244/.383, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 32/9 K/BB, 1 SB in 120 AB

Diaz has hit 7 percent of the DWL's homers while claiming 1.8 percent of its at-bats, but no one is going to care when he's batting just .183.

Elijah Dukes - OF Nationals
.236/.408/.436, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 21/11 K/BB, 3 SB in 55 AB

Dukes was one of the league's best players before his temper flared up, leading to an ejection that made news in the U.S. It turned out to be his last appearance in the league and his last on-field act as Rays property. The change of scenery can't hurt.

Joel Guzman - 3B Rays
.239/.345/.543, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 14/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 46 AB

Guzman was a late arrival, but he's been very good since debuting last month. Remember, he just turned 23 in late November. There's still plenty of time left for him to harness his power potential and become a force.

Jose Lima - RHP Free Agent
2-2, 2.41 ERA, 47 H, 18/12 K/BB in 41 IP

Still trying. Lima spent last season pitching in Mexico and went 13-4 with a 3.60 ERA in 22 starts.

Radhames Liz - RHP Orioles
0-0, 0.52 ERA, 10 H, 14/10 K/BB in 17 1/3 IP
baltimoreorioles.com
Liz has been starting games with success in the Dominican Republic and figures to remain in the rotation in Triple-A to begin 2008. He'd be more interesting for fantasy purposes with a move to the pen, as he'd be a candidate to quickly assume the closer's role in Baltimore.

Andy Marte - 3B Indians
.216/.324/.284, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 25/13 K/BB, 0 SB in 88 AB

The Indians insist they won't be quick to give up on Marte after what happened with Brandon Phillips. Still, little he's done the last two years suggests he's ready to contribute. Because he's out of options, he'll probably stick as a backup to Casey Blake and Ryan Garko.

Julio Mateo - RHP Free Agent
3-3, 2.10 ERA, 51 H, 35/8 K/BB in 51 1/3 IP

Dropped by the Mariners and Phillies after last season's domestic abuse allegations, Matao may be one of the better deals out there in free agency right now. A team in a big ballpark would be smart to grab him and use him in middle relief.

Kendry Morales - 1B Angels
.257/.288/.358, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 21/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 109 AB

Sure, the line makes him an average player in the DWL, but Morales needs to do better if he has any hope of carving out a role for himself in Anaheim. Casey Kotchman's emergence last season may make him expendable.

Oneli Perez - RHP White Sox
1-0, 12 Sv, 0.55 ERA, 8 H, 17/5 K/BB in 16 1/3 IP

The White Sox tried a bunch of relievers last year, but never looked at Perez even though he ended up with a 2.10 ERA and an 89/20 K/BB ratio in 77 IP at Double-A. Maybe the team will begin to take him seriously next season.

Felix Pie - OF Cubs
.239/.308/.385, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 28/10 K/BB, 6 SB in 109 AB

Pie cut back on the strikeouts in Triple-A last season, but it didn't carry over to the majors and he's fanned 28 times in 31 games in the DWL. The Cubs want him to be their center fielder, but they should keep Matt Murton as an insurance policy. Kosuke Fukudome should prove adequate in center if needed.

Danny Richar - 2B White Sox
.224/.265/.254, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 17/3 K/BB, 2 SB in 67 AB

Richar hardly embarrassed himself with a .230/.289/.406 line in 187 at-bats for the White Sox, but neither did he do a lot to solidify his status as a regular. The team needs to invest in a legitimate alternative.



Mexican Pacific League

Brandon Boggs - OF Rangers
.284/.360/.352, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 25/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 88 AB
texasrangers.com
MPL teams are averaging a 715 OPS, putting Boggs right around the median. The 24-year-old Georgia Tech product hit .266/.385/.508 with 19 homers in 354 at-bats for Double-A Frisco last season. He's still something of a long shot to put together a career in the majors, but it's possible he'll log some time in center field for the Rangers next season.

Jason Botts - OF Rangers
.340/.429/.533, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 54/31 K/BB, 1 SB in 212 AB

Botts is first in the league in OPS and RBI and third in homers. Still, the Rangers aren't making noises about leaving an opening for him. It doesn't help that he hit just .240/.326/.335 in 167 major league at-bats last season. He deserves at least one more chance, but a lot of scouts just don't think his swing will translate.

Vinny Castilla - 3B Retired
.365/.426/.712, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 6/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 52 AB

Fernando Valenzuela has been a non-factor so far, but another retired major leaguer is starring in the MPL. Castilla can surely expect a three-year offer from Brian Sabean at any moment.

Erubiel Durazo - 1B Free Agent
.292/.405/.569, 11 HR, 25 RBI, 28/25 K/BB, 0 SB in 137 AB

Durazo would have the edge over Botts in OPS if he qualified for the batting title. Still, the suitors for his services don't seem to be lining up.

Dana Eveland - LHP Athletics
4-2, 2.51 ERA, 54 H, 69/15 K/BB in 61 IP

Eveland has fanned 21 in his last two starts and is third in the league in strikeouts behind a couple of guys who have pitched at least a dozen more innings than he has. He'll be a top candidate for a spot in Oakland's rotation after coming over in the Dan Haren deal, especially if Joe Blanton follows Haren out the door.

Brandon Jones - OF Braves
.289/.383/.389, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 28/23 K/BB, 2 SB in 149 AB
atlantabraves.com
Jones has been caught stealing seven times, which really puts a dent into his fine OBP. He's in line to battle Matt Diaz for playing time in left field next spring, but the Braves could land another left-handed hitter cheap and send Jones back to Triple-A for more seasoning. He's played in just 44 games at the level.

Eric Reed - OF Marlins
.319/.347/.489, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 9/2 K/BB, 3 SB in 47 AB

Unless the Marlins sign a center fielder -- something that seems unlikely -- Reed could battle Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross, Alfredo Amezaga and Alejandro De Aza for at-bats. His best hope is for sticking as a reserve if Ross wins the job and Maybin heads to the minors.

Andrew Sisco - LHP White Sox
1-1, 1.88 ERA, 10 H, 13/11 K/BB in 14 1/3 IP

Sisco joined Mexicali at the beginning of the month and has made three starts since. The White Sox may give him a chance to claim a rotation spot if they fail to upgrade from Gavin Floyd. However, because his command troubles would likely make it tough for him to work deep into games, his odds of contributing are better as a reliever.

Scott Thorman - 1B Braves
.239/.286/.462, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 29/8 K/BB in 117 AB
atlantabraves.com
It's not going to make much sense for the Braves to continue keeping Thorman as a bench player next year. Because he's out of options, he might go on waivers in March. It's entirely possible he'd make it through unclaimed despite his power.

Erick Threets - LHP Giants
1-2, 1.69 ERA, 15 H, 20/8 K/BB in 21 1/3 IP

Threets could overtake Steve Kline or Jack Taschner for a bullpen spot in spring training if his command holds up. He walked 35 in 54 2/3 innings for Triple-A Fresno last season.

Neil Walker - 3B Pirates
.268/.315/.409, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 34/11 K/BB, 3 SB in 149 AB

Walker returned home from Mexico late last month. The switch-hitter is likely to spend most of 2008 in Triple-A.

Brandon Wood - 3B Angels
.171/.275/.171, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 12/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB

Wood lasted just nine games before returning to the U.S. He's given the Angels no reason to include him in their plans for 2008, and his trade value is well down from where it was a year ago.



Venezuelan Winter League

Jonathan Albaladejo - RHP Yankees
2-2, 4 Sv, 2.22 ERA, 22 H, 18/8 K/BB in 24 1/3 IP

The product of the Tyler Clippard deal. The Yankees would be making a mistake if they buried Albaladejo like they did Chris Britton a year ago. I think he'll outpitch LaTroy Hawkins if permitted.

For the record, offense in Venezuela is at the same level as in Mexico. The league has an OPS right around 715.

Edgardo Alfonzo - INF Rangers
.338/.406/.514, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 15/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 142 AB
texasrangers.com
It was enough to get him a minor league deal from the Rangers last week.

Tony Armas Jr. - RHP Free Agent
3-1, 3.45 ERA, 32 H, 18/9 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP

Armas allowed two earned runs in 19 2/3 innings through his first four starts, but he's been roughed up in back-to-back outings. He'll need to improve in order to land a major league contract.

Jose Ascanio - RHP Cubs
0-0, 2.19 ERA, 7 H, 13/3 K/BB in 12 1/3 IP

Ascanio was the reliever picked up from the Braves for Will Ohman and Omar Infante earlier this month. He figures to open 2008 in Triple-A, but he could end the year as a key part of the team's bullpen.

Wladimir Balentien - OF Mariners
.191/.338/.355, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 27/21 K/BB, 6 SB in 110 AB

Balentien starred in the VWL last year, but it just didn't happen for him this winter. It won't hurt his stock overly much. He was destined to begin another year in Triple-A regardless.

Brian Bass - RHP Twins
3-3, 3.38 ERA, 38 H, 29/5 K/BB in 42 2/3 IP
minnesotatwins.com
The Twins could carry Bass as a swingman after adding him to their 40-man roster to prevent him from leaving as a minor league free agent. There's little fantasy upside here, but he might get enough grounders to be useful.

Jeff Bennett - RHP Braves
3-2, 2.31 ERA, 41 H, 20/15 K/BB in 39 IP
atlantabraves.com
Bennett impressed in his September stint with the Braves and kept it going in Venezuela until getting shelled in his final outing last month. Before that, he had a 1.25 ERA in 36 innings. He might be the Braves' fifth starter if Chuck James is traded or Mike Hampton suffers yet another setback.

Gregor Blanco - OF Braves
.339/.441/.484, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 42/35 K/BB, 5 SB in 192 AB
atlantabraves.com
Blanco isn't getting talked up at all as a center-field option for the Braves, but he's about as good of a fallback plan as Josh Anderson. He ranks sixth in Venezuela in average and first in walks. It's just too bad his plus speed hasn't made him a better basestealer.

Sean Burnett - LHP Pirates
1-1, 2.45 ERA, 18 H, 11/8 K/BB in 25 2/3 IP

Burnett was effective through six starts before leaving Venezuela a month ago, but he still wasn't striking anyone out. Because of his history of arm problems, the stuff isn't there for him to succeed in the majors.

Alex Cabrera - 1B Free Agent
.297/.413/.670, 9 HR, 21 RBI, 24/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 91 AB

If Cabrera was legitimately drawing interest from major league teams, it probably changed with his inclusion in the Mitchell Report. At 36, he wasn't likely to get much more of a shot than Roberto Petagine did anyway.

Alberto Callaspo - INF Royals
.342/.398/.427, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 7/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 117 AB

Getting Callaspo from the Diamondbacks for Billy Buckner was a nice pickup for the Royals. They weren't going to trust Esteban German as a full-time second baseman, and now they have a better defender to take over if they need to replace Mark Grudzielanek in 2009. In the meantime, Callaspo could occupy a utility role and maybe get some starts over Tony Pena Jr. at shortstop.

Chris Carter - 1B Red Sox
.336/.382/.474, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 16/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 152 AB

Perhaps the best hitter in Venezuela in the early going, Carter cooled off in the second half of November and hasn't played much lately. Because he's limited to first base on defense and below average there, Carter isn't being considered as a replacement for Eric Hinske in Boston. He still could be an option at first base or DH if the Red Sox lose Kevin Youkilis or David Ortiz to injury.

Jose Castillo - INF Free Agent
.356/.381/.581, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 25/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 160 AB

If the White Sox can trade Joe Crede or Juan Uribe, my guess is that Castillo will be signed the next day. He'd make plenty of sense there as a backup at second and third.

Ronny Cedeno - SS Cubs
.311/.408/.435, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 30/26 K/BB in 177 AB

The Cubs appear committed to Ryan Theriot at shortstop, but Cedeno is the superior defender and might be about Theriot's match offensively. Unless he's traded -- and there's a good chance he'd go to Baltimore if those two teams pulled off a deal -- he might yet get another chance to play regularly in Chicago.

Jesus Flores - C Nationals
.234/.315/.447. 2 HR, 8 RBI, 13/4 K/BB in 47 AB

Flores isn't playing regularly, but he's getting a chance to pick up some of the at-bats he lost as a result of his status as a Rule 5 pick. The Nationals have indicated that they plan on carrying him as a backup again, this time to Paul Lo Duca. However, they might opt to acquire another veteran and stick Flores in Triple-A.

Jody Gerut - OF Free Agent
.390/.488/.567, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 20/25 K/BB, 1 SB in 141 AB

Gerut left Venezuela at the end of last month, but he still leads the league in OPS. Even though he doesn't run as well as he used to before years of knee problems, he could be a very solid fourth outfielder for some team.

Carlos Gonzalez - Athletics
.266/.342/.392, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 28/17 K/BB, 1 SB in 143 AB

The top property acquired by the A's in the Dan Haren deal, Gonzalez is holding his own as a 22-year-old facing mostly older pitchers. He's going to need a full year in Triple-A in 2008 in order to improve his approach at the plate, especially versus lefties.

Ruben Gotay - 2B Mets
.197/.279/.230, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 12/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 61 AB
newyorkmets.com
Gotay hit .295/.351/.421 in 190 at-bats for the Mets last season, but that didn't give the team much pause before the move to re-sign Luis Castillo for four years. Gotay will try to stick as a backup, but his future likely lies elsewhere.

Gorkys Hernandez - OF Braves
.157/.218/.157, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 14/4 K/BB, 4 SB in 51 AB

The Braves knew they were getting a raw talent when they acquired Hernandez in the Edgar Renteria deal, so this won't bother him too much. The 20-year-old is due to spend 2008 at Single-A Myrtle Beach.

Luis Hernandez - SS Orioles
.224/.276/.302, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 12/9 K/BB in 116 AB
baltimoreorioles.com
The Orioles figure to do better, but in the wake of the Miguel Tejada trade, the light-hitting Hernandez tops the team's depth chart at shortstop.

Richard Hidalgo - OF Free Agent
.333/.416/.589, 10 HR, 25 RBI, 27/17 K/BB, 1 SB in 129 AB

Hidalgo has overcome a slow start to join Gerut as the only players in Venezuela with an OPS over 1000. He'll likely get a chance to make some team as a part-time player.

Adam Jones - OF Mariners
.340/.367/.447, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 14/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 47 AB

It's an empty .340, but that should be sufficient to prevent the Mariners from bringing in a starting right fielder this winter. Jones figures to inherit the job from Jose Guillen after hitting .314/.382/.586 in the PCL last season.

Jose Lopez - 2B Mariners
.356/.377/.603, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 7/3 K/BB, 1 SB in 73 AB

Lopez has eight doubles in his last nine games for Lara, a club which might as well be a Mariners affiliate. The big winter can't hurt his chances of sticking with Seattle as the everyday second baseman. The Mariners still might decide to sign someone to push him, but they shouldn't sell when his value is at its low point.

Brandon Morrow - RHP Mariners
1-2, 3.60 ERA, 26 H, 23/6 K/BB in 25 IP

The move of Morrow to the rotation looks like a success. More important than the ERA is that he's walked no more than one batter in four of his five starts. Morrow issued 50 free passes in 63 1/3 innings out of the Seattle pen last season. He might be the current favorite to act as the Mariners' fifth starter next year.

Hideo Nomo - RHP Free Agent
0-2, 8.22 ERA, 12 H, 4/4 K/BB in 7 2/3 IP

Nomo's comeback from elbow surgery didn't go as hoped. If he still wants to pitch in the U.S., he'll have to accept a Triple-A contract.

Gerardo Parra - OF Diamondbacks
.310/.355/.434, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 12/8 K/BB, 4 SB in 113 AB

Though he's at least a couple of years away, Parra is easily the top position prospect left in Arizona's farm system. He's set to begin 2008 at Single-A Visalia.

Scott Patterson - RHP Yankees
2-2, 2 Sv, 1.69 ERA, 18 H, 17/2 K/BB in 21 1/3 IP

The 28-year-old Patterson earned himself a spot on the Yankees' 40-man roster before calling it a year a couple of weeks ago. He'll be a long shot to win a bullpen job in spring training, but he figures to make his major league debut at some point during 2008.

Yusmeiro Petit - RHP Diamondbacks
2-2, 3.41 ERA, 28 H, 29/3 K/BB in 29 IP

It was a given that Arizona would pick up a starter this winter, so Petit couldn't be disappointed to see Dan Haren arrive, especially since it meant that a couple of potential challengers to his status as the team's sixth or seventh starter departed. Assuming that Micah Owings is assured of a spot, Petit would battle Edgar Gonzalez and maybe Dustin Nippert for a role filling in for Randy Johnson if he's not ready.

Luis Pena - RHP Brewers
1-0, 4.50 ERA, 13 H, 11/14 K/BB in 16 IP

Pena was shaping up as a deep sleeper for saves before the Brewers spent $10 million on a closer. Then again, since that closer was Eric Gagne, maybe Pena will still be worth a reserve pick in NL-only leagues. Command has been a problem for the hard-throwing 24-year-old this winter, but he walked only 21 in 68 1/3 innings in the minors.

Juan Rivera - OF Angels
.287/.311/.406, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 9/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 101 AB

Rivera is nothing more than a backup DH for the Angels following the Torii Hunter signing. He's not tearing it up this winter, but he could be a nice acquisition for some team in need of right-handed power.

Francisco Rodriguez - RHP Angels
0-1, 5 Sv, 1.54 ERA, 6 H, 13/3 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP

Is this the last time K-Rod pitches in winter ball? Maybe the Angels won't insist on it, but it's easy to see them or any other team that signs him long-term ask him to forgo pitching in Venezuela under the terms of his first long-term deal.

Ryan Rowland-Smith - LHP Mariners
2-3, 5.34 ERA, 33 H, 19/13 K/BB in 32 IP

Rowland-Smith hasn't been as successful as Morrow as a member of Lara's rotation. He still could receive the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in spring training, but he's likely to be of more help working out of the pen.

Luke Scott - OF Orioles
.211/.336/.367, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 26/15 K/BB, 1 SB in 90 AB

Unlike a couple of years ago, Scott is struggling in Venezuela. He really didn't have anything left to prove this time anyway. The 29-year-old projects as the Orioles' primary left fielder after arriving in the Miguel Tejada trade. However, it's possible he'll be moved in another deal.

Omar Vizquel - SS Giants
.217/.324/.317, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2/10 K/BB, 1 SB in 60 AB

Vizquel wanted to thank the fans in Venezuela for their support by playing winter ball for the first time in several years. He ended up posting an OPS 20 points higher than he did during the regular season, so that's something.

Victor Zambrano - RHP Free Agent
3-1, 2.70 ERA, 24 H, 12/12 K/BB in 30 IP

Zambrano fanned 86 in 101 1/3 IP between the majors and minors in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, so it's probably best not to read too much into his poor strikeout rate in Venezuela. There hasn't been much interest in him so far, but he's at least as good of a bet as Kip Wells, who just received $3 million from the Rockies.
cincinattireds.com

[Hache Man]

Expert League Drafts
With magazine season not so far away, I took part in two experts drafts last week. The first was the Krause Publications League that I've been doing for a few years and that I won in 2006. Last year, I slipped all the way to ninth. The second was our Rotoworld mock draft, which will be featured in our upcoming magazine. I can't disclose the full results of either, but I did want to review my picks below.

Both drafts were for 12-team mixed leagues using a 5x5 scoring system. For the second year in a row, I drew the 10th pick in the Krause draft. It was easy to compare to the Rotoworld draft last year, as I had the ninth pick then. However, I had the second pick in the Rotoworld draft this year. I'll focus a little more on the Krause League draft here in the review, since that's the one that's going to be played out.


Round 1
Krause - Pick No. 10 - Johan Santana
Rotoworld - Pick No. 2 - Jose Reyes

I knew none of my top four hitters were going to slip, so having Santana fall to me with the 10th pick was my dream scenario going in. I'll probably have him No. 3 or No. 4 on my board when all is said and done. A trade is only likely to increase his value.

Santana dropped even further in the Rotoworld draft, going 15th overall.

Of course, Alex Rodriguez went first in both drafts. That left me choosing between Reyes and Hanley Ramirez in the Rotoworld draft. I have Reyes with a $1 edge right now. Ramirez wins three of the five categories, but the steals make all the difference.


Round 2
Krause - Pick No. 15 - Ryan Braun
Rotoworld - Pick No. 23 - Vladimir Guerrero

Braun would have been my first-round pick if Santana didn't last. Even though my projection calls for his average to fall from .324 to .301 and his OPS to drop more than 80 points, I have him as the seventh or eighth most valuable hitter even before adjusting for position.

Guerrero was the fourth of five straight outfielders chosen to conclude round two in the Rotoworld draft, the others being Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki and Lance Berkman. I have him as the best bet of the group, with only Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford and Alfonso Soriano ranking ahead of him in the outfield.
atlantabraves.com

Round 3
Krause - Pick No. 34 - Robinson Cano
Rotoworld - Pick No. 26 - Mark Teixeira

Cano has dropped from third last year to fourth in the 2008 second-base rankings, but there's no way I would have taken him in the third round a year ago. The position is far stronger than it appeared to be then, and I have seven second basemen with stronger projections than No. 2 guy Brian Roberts received for 2007. I'm guessing Cano eventually moves up in the Yankee lineup this year and finishes with 100 runs and RBI.
baltimoreorioles.com
Teixeira was an easy pick in the Rotoworld draft. Ideally, I would have ended up with Jake Peavy or B.J. Upton at the end of round two and then the best available outfielder or first baseman here. However, since those two were gone, I grabbed the best available hitter both times.


Round 4
Krause - Pick No. 39 - Erik Bedard
Rotoworld - Pick No. 47 - Justin Verlander

I got Jake Peavy in this round in both drafts last year. This year, he went 16th overall in each time.

I knew going in that teams would be slow to draft starters in the Krause League. I ended up pitching heavy in both of the previous two drafts, since that's where the value was. It worked out in 2006 but not so much last year, when I had Chris Carpenter, Rich Harden and Jose Contreras as busts alongside my two studs, Peavy and Brandon Webb. With a chance to get my No. 3 starter in round four, I was prepared to load up on pitching again. I have Bedard ranked in the same position now that I had Peavy a year ago.

Things were a little different in the Rotoworld draft. By the time I was drafting 47th, six starters were off the board, including my top five (Santana, Peavy, Bedard, Josh Beckett and Webb). I would have grabbed Cano had he been available, but since he went earlier in the round, I took my No. 6 starter in Verlander. cincinattireds.com


Round 5
Krause - Pick No. 58 - Eric Byrnes
Rotoworld - Pick No. 50 - Nick Markakis

I was hoping to get Markakis here in both drafts, but as it turned out, he went 55th in the Krause League. Byrnes' speed probably made him a better fit for me there anyway. Still, I'm expecting big things from Markakis, assuming that the Orioles don't completely gut their lineup.


Round 6
Krause - Pick No. 63 - Carlos Pena
Rotoworld - Pick No. 71 - Howie Kendrick

There were still a couple of outfielders higher than Pena on my board, but I had a big gap between him as my No. 8 first baseman and anyone below him. For what it's worth, I currently have him at .267-35-116 for next season. Obviously, that's not a projection I'm particularly confident about.
newyorkmets.com
In the Rotoworld draft, I was thinking catcher earlier in the round, but Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Jorge Posada all went in a span of four picks. I'm not as excited about the Kendrick pick as I would have been had it looked like he was going to hit at the top of the order in between Chone Figgins and Guerrero. Still, there's a good chance he'll get there soon enough.


Round 7
Krause - Pick No. 82 - Joe Nathan
Rotoworld - Pick No. 74 - Felix Hernandez

Posada, Verlander and Corey Hart all went off the board before my pick in the seventh round, leaving me with no one I particularly liked. As a result, I became the third person to draft a closer, with Nathan following Jonathan Papelbon in round five and J.J. Putz in round six.
minnesotatwins.com
I made King Felix the 14th starter chosen in the Rotoworld draft. I have him ranked ninth.


Round 8
Krause - Pick No. 87 - Takashi Saito
Rotoworld - Pick No. 95 - Billy Wagner

Again, there was no one who stood out on my board in the Krause League, and I wasn't going to be making another pick for a while. As a result, I grabbed my No. 4 closer.
texasrangers.com
The Rotoworld draft saw no closers go in the first six rounds. After Papelbon kicked things off in the seventh, the eighth round included six closers, including my selection of Wagner with the next-to-last pick.


Round 9
Krause - Pick No. 106 - Jeff Francoeur
Rotoworld - Pick No. 98 - Mariano Rivera

Francoeur is currently my No. 20 outfielder, up one spot from last year.

With the closer run likely to continue, Rivera looked like pretty good value in the Rotoworld draft. However, after Jose Valverde and Bobby Jenks went with the following two picks, things cooled off a bit then. If I had it to do over again, I probably would have gone with Vernon Wells and gotten a second closer next time around.


Round 10
Krause - Pick No. 111 - Stephen Drew
Rotoworld - Pick No. 119 - Joba Chamberlain

My biggest disappointment of the day in the Krause League was seeing Matt Kemp go at No. 108. I liked Drew as a fallback at shortstop -- he's definitely one of my breakthrough players for 2008 -- but I was thinking 12th or 13th round, not 10th.


Round 11
Krause - Pick No. 130 - Johnny Damon
Rotoworld - Pick No. 122 - Matt Cain

I have Damon 26th among outfielders. I needed some more speed, but I wasn't prepared to draft a one-category outfielder.


Round 12
Krause - Pick No. 135 - Joba Chamberlain
Rotoworld - Pick No. 143 - Rafael Soriano

I ended up with both Chamberlain and Cain in the Rotoworld draft. In the Krause League, I thought I was going to have to choose between the two, but Cain went at No. 134. I really didn't expect to end up with Joba in either league, but his upside had to be gambled on at this point.


Round 13
Krause - Pick No. 154 - Hank Blalock
Rotoworld - Pick No. 146 - Edwin Encarnacion

I was looking for the best available bat in the Krause League, and Blalock graded out highest, even though I already had a third baseman. In the other draft, I had yet to fill the position. Blalock was available there, too, but Encarnacion ranked ever so slightly higher.

For the record, I also drafted Blalock with pick No. 154 in the Krause League last year. He quietly posted a 900 OPS in 58 games last season, and that he needed a rib removed in May hardly makes him injury prone.



Round 14
Krause - Pick No. 159 - Francisco Liriano
Rotoworld - Pick No. 167 - Jeff Kent

I had narrowed my choices here to Liriano and Pedro Martinez when Pedro went at No. 157. I was probably going to take Liriano anyway.

Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver both went off the board earlier in round 14 in the Rotoworld draft, so I filled my MI slot with Kent.


Round 15
Krause - Pick No. 178 - Billy Butler
Rotoworld - Pick No. 170 - Phil Hughes

Weaver went one pick ahead of me in the Krause League. It was a little earlier than I wanted to take Butler, but he was the highest position player on my board and I still wasn't feeling the need to take a third closer. There's no reason Butler can't hit .300 with decent power numbers as a sophomore.


Round 16
Krause - Pick No. 183 - A.J. Pierzynski
Rotoworld - Pick No. 191 - Hank Blalock

It's a two-catcher league, so it seemed like the right time to fill one of the slots. 11 catchers had been drafted by nine teams by the time I picked Pierzynski.

This makes five straight experts drafts in which I've ended up with Blalock. I didn't have Eric Chavez join him in either draft, suggesting that I am making at least a little progress.


Round 17
Krause - Pick No. 202 - Tony Pena
Rotoworld - Pick No. 194 - A.J. Pierzynski

My intention in the Krause League was to draft Yunel Escobar here as my MI, but he went at No. 200. That led me to finally grab my last closer.


Round 18
Rotoworld - Pick No. 215 - J.D. Drew
Krause - Pick No. 207 - Austin Kearns

My No. 41 and 42 outfielders, respectively, and in a shallow mixed league, I'd move both up a few slots. It's not as much of a problem here if they spend a few weeks on the DL at some point.


Round 19
Krause - Pick No. 226 - Mark Buehrle
Rotoworld - Pick No. 218 - Billy Butler

With my pitching staff, an innings eater made a lot more sense here than another high-upside strikeout guy. I just wish Buehrle was pitching for a team that would give him better run support.

Butler in the 15th round of the Krause League wasn't such a great pick. In the 19th round here, I think he's quite a bargain.


Round 20
Krause - Pick No. 231 - Aaron Hill
Rotoworld - Pick No. 239 - Mike Napoli

I wanted Escobar to fill my MI slot, but Hill isn't such a bad alternative. The one discouraging thing is that he'll likely open the season batting seventh. However, injuries will probably lead to some upwards movement.


Round 21
Krause - Pick No. 250 - Randy Johnson
Rotoworld - Pick No. 242 - Barry Bonds

Time to take some chances. I'd be fine if Johnson opens the season on the disabled list, giving me a chance to pick up someone a little more reliable. It's round 21, so if he's healthy but ineffective in spring training, I shouldn't be afraid to cut him.


Round 22
Krause - Pick No. 255 - Barry Bonds
Rotoworld - Pick No. 263 - Mark Buehrle

While others had already gambled on Colby Rasmus, Homer Bailey and a rehabbing Chris Carpenter, I went old again. If Bonds lands with the A's or another AL team as a DH, he could be a big-time steal here. As a National League outfielder playing three or four times per week, he might not be worth using at all. If no team at all opts to sign him, I'll dump him for more of an all-around player, which might be better for my team anyway.


Round 23
Krause - Pick No. 274 - Michael Barrett
Rotoworld - Pick No. 266 - Lastings Milledge

Barrett would need to land in a better situation to make me keep him. Still, he had more upside than anyone else who was available to fill my opening at catcher.

I debated going with all three Nationals outfielders in the Rotoworld league, but then Bonds fell into my lap in round 21. I would have gone with Wily Mo Pena over Milledge here, but he was chosen during the previous round.


Krause League Team
C - A.J. Pierzynski (16)
C - Michael Barrett (23)
1B - Carlos Pena (6)
3B - Ryan Braun (2)
CI - Hank Blalock (13)
2B - Robinson Cano (3)
SS - Stephen Drew (10)
MI - Aaron Hill (20)
OF - Eric Byrnes (5)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (9)
OF - Johnny Damon (11)
OF - J.D. Drew (18)
OF - Barry Bonds (22)
DH - Billy Butler (15)

P - Johan Santana (1)
P - Erik Bedard (4)
P - Joba Chamberlain (12)
P - Francisco Liriano (14)
P - Mark Buehrle (19)
P - Randy Johnson (21)

P - Joe Nathan (7)
P - Takashi Saito (8)
P - Tony Pena (17)

For the third year in a row, I think I've left the draft with the best pitching staff in the league. It didn't work out last year, but I am happier with this team as a whole than I was with that one. Since I don't have a ton of power in the outfield, I will need 90 homers from my corner infielders and 50 from my middle infielders in order to have something close to an average offense. Those totals should be within reach. I like my chances of finishing in the top three or four in the league in runs scored, and if I can get another 25 points on offense and my top two starters stay healthy, I should have a shot.

[Hache Man]

Remaining Unsigned Free Agents

As Jimmy Buffett so appropriately put it, "If the phone doesn't ring, it's me". Below is the list of remaining free agents as of Dec 30.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
BALTIMORE (3) Paul Bako, c; Kris Benson, rhp; Corey Patterson, of.
baltimoreorioles.com
BOSTON (5) Royce Clayton, ss; Matt Clement, rhp; Eric Hinske, 1b-of; Bobby Kielty, of; Doug Mirabelli, c.
CHICAGO (2) Mike Myers, lhp.
CLEVELAND (3) Keith Foulke, rhp; Kenny Lofton, of; Trot Nixon, of.
DETROIT (2) Sean Casey, 1b; Neifi Perez, ss.
KANSAS CITY (4) Odalis Perez, lhp; Reggie Sanders, of; Mike Sweeney, dh; John Thomson, rhp.
LOS ANGELES (1) Bartolo Colon, rhp.
MINNESOTA (1) Rondell White, of.
minnesotatwins.com
NEW YORK (3) Roger Clemens, rhp; Doug Mientkiewicz, 1b; Ron Villone, lhp.
OAKLAND (3) Mike Piazza, c; a-Shannon Stewart, of.
SEATTLE (3) Chris Reitsma, rhp; Arthur Rhodes, lhp; Jeff Weaver, rhp.
TAMPA BAY (2) Greg Norton, dh; Josh Paul, c.
TEXAS (4) Jerry Hairston, 2b-of; Sammy Sosa, of; Brad Wilkerson, of; Jamey Wright, rhp. texasrangers.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE

ARIZONA (4) Jeff Cirillo, 3b; Tony Clark, 1b; a-Livan Hernandez, rhp; Bob Wickman, rhp.
ATLANTA (3) Octavio Dotel, rhp; Julio Franco, 1b; Chris Woodward, ss.
atlantabraves.com
CHICAGO (1) Steve Trachsel, rhp.
CINCINNATI (2) Eddie Guardado, lhp; Eric Milton, lhp.
COLORADO (6) Jeremy Affeldt, lhp; Elmer Dessens, rhp; Josh Fogg, rhp; Jorge Julio, rhp; Rodrigo Lopez, rhp.
FLORIDA (3) Armando Benitez, rhp; Byung-Hyun Kim, rhp.
HOUSTON (5) Craig Biggio, 2b; Jason Jennings, rhp; a-Trever Miller, lhp; Brian Moehler, rhp; Orlando Palmeiro, of.
LOS ANGELES (6) Luis Gonzalez, of; Mike Lieberthal, c; Ramon Martinez, 2b; Rudy Seanez, rhp; Mark Sweeney, 1b; David Wells, lhp.
MILWAUKEE (4) Tony Graffanino, inf; Corey Koskie, 3b; Damian Miller, c.
NEW YORK (7) Sandy Alomar, c; Jeff Conine, 1b; Mike DiFelice, c; Shawn Green, of; Aaron Sele, rhp; Jose Valentin, 2b. newyorkmets.com
PHILADELPHIA (7) Antonio Alfonseca, rhp; Rod Barajas, c; Freddy Garcia, rhp; Jon Lieber, rhp; Kyle Lohse, rhp; Jose Mesa, rhp; Abraham Nunez, 3b.
PITTSBURGH (2) Tony Armas, rhp; Shawn Chacon, rhp.
ST. LOUIS (4) Russell Branyan, 3b; Miguel Cairo, inf; Kelly Stinnett, c; Preston Wilson, of.
SAN DIEGO (3) a-Mike Cameron, of; Brett Tomko, rhp.
SAN FRANCISCO (5) Barry Bonds, of; a-Pedro Feliz, 3b; Ryan Klesko, 1b; Mike Matheny, c; Russ Ortiz, rhp.
WASHINGTON (1) Robert Fick, 1b.

[Hache Man]

2008 NL Central Prospects
Prospect Contributions for 2008

Taking chances at the end of your draft is what makes or breaks a season. Every team will draft a bevy of stars at the top and usually only injury derails these picks. The successful teams not only get the top picks they want, they also excel at drafting well at the very end of their drafts. And while they're not always picking prospects here, understanding and noting what these type of players will do for the upcoming season is of the utmost importance when putting together your own cheat sheets.

Second and third year players are the ones who usually show the most growth and value (see James Shields' 2007 campaign), and are your best late round fliers, but we're taking a closer look at the prospects for this coming season, as this is the list where most late-round draft mistakes are made, and these overvaluations prevent owners from obtaining more productive players. And unfortunately, because the pedigree is so high with some of these guys, it becomes difficult to cut bait with a future superstar in the midst of a horrible struggle (see Alex Gordon's 2007 campaign).

Please note that the order of these lists assumes a non-keeper 12-team mixed league, and not long term keeper value. We're focusing on the most common league that the majority of people play, and that is the redraft league. This is a seven-part series, breaking down each individual division, and finally presenting individual combined lists for mixed redraft, AL-only redraft and NL-only redraft, as well as a mixed league keeper list to see where all these guys stand for the future.

* Kosuke Fukudome is not listed here because Japanese or any other experienced foreign players coming over aren't necessarily 'prospects' per se, rather, they're more like 'special free agents.' If he was included here, he'd easily be #1, and he'd also be #1 for this season on the final list, if that helps at all. Other foreign 'special free agents' will be handled separately as well.


NL Central

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto was thought to be the safer bet (due to an open job) of the Reds position players coming into this season, until Cincinnati picked up their option on Scott Hatteberg. Votto will now compete for the first base job come spring training, and considering Hatteberg's poor defense (as evidenced by a .675 RZR rating and only twelve out-of-zone plays) might not be such a bad risk as one might assume considering Votto's so-so glove work.
cincinattireds.com
Votto has above-average bat speed and strong wrists which allows him to hit for power to all fields. While he doesn't project as a .300 hitter, he also won't become Adam Dunn II, most likely hovering around .280 with extended at bats. He's much more patient at the plate than fellow teammate Jay Bruce, striking out 18.8% of the time while walking 12.8% (compared to Bruce's 23.5% and 7.8%) while also posting a slightly better contact rate (78% versus 74%), which also had been rising at every level. He's not much of an athlete, and while he did do a serviceable job when given time in left field last year, he still projects as somewhat of a defensive liability, meaning his bat has to produce for him to stick. Comparative bat-wise to Hatteberg, however, he's a huge upgrade despite whatever slumps may come.

While the likelihood of Votto starting the season in Louisville remains high because of the Hatteberg resigning, Wayne Krivsky knows he needs more impact bats in the Cincinnati's line-up if they are to compete. A platoon isn't likely as both players struggle against left-handers, meaning the writing is on the wall for Hatteberg. His bat is essentially empty outside of his high on base percentage, and his negligible speed negates much of that value, while Votto actually possesses solid enough base path instincts to have stolen 17 bags at Louisville last year.

Long term, Jay Bruce is the much better bet between the two prospects (and is number one in all of the minors in terms of keeper leagues), but for this season the likelihood that Votto eventually wins the first base job outright and gets 100-200 more at bats than Bruce, combined with his more advanced plate coverage and contact rate gains, makes him the top choice. He's a perfect candidate for a late-round flier when you also consider the park he'll call home.

465 AB, .280 BA, 20 HR, 64 R, 71 RBI, 12 SB

Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs
You won't find a more debated prospect coming into 2008 due to his out-of-nowhere production last season. Coming into 2007, Soto had done nothing to prove himself as a top prospect in Chicago's system beyond being an above average defensive catcher, batting a paltry .262/.344/.371 over his full career. And there's still reason for concern coming into 2008 when you take into consideration his high hr/f rate and low fly ball and contact numbers upon call-up.

However, one simply cannot discount the numbers he put up last season as a fluke. Not only did he lead the minors in batting average by a catcher (.353) and slugging percentage (.652), he also won the Triple-A Pacific Coast League RBI crown (109) and was named MVP of the league. And he was arguably Chicago's best hitter after his call-up, so he was able to excel for an extended period of time.

One secret to this success might be the dramatic weight loss Soto achieved before 2007's start. By losing 30 pounds before the season, Soto was able to get around on pitches more efficiently with his compact swing, as well as helping his defense wholesale. While one has to take pause that he has not done this beyond one season, where and when he's doing it cannot be ignored.

Combine with that the fact that Soto is all but guaranteed the starting catcher gig this year, and you have yourself a potential breakout player. His defense will keep him up (he had a 31% caught-stealing rate last season, which will translate well in the big leagues), and considering how long they toiled with Jason Kendall, if his bat is only half as good as it was last year, he's going to stick. Most quality catchers will go in the middle rounds of a regular 12-team, with the top three going way too early, making Soto a wonderful speculative pick at the end of your draft, allowing you to maximize on positional players with high at bat impacts.

460 AB, .281 BA, 19 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 1 SB

Jay Bruce, CF/RF, Cincinnati Reds
The consensus best hitter in the minor leagues last season and Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, Bruce heads a class of Cincinnati prospects ready for prime time. He will be as hyped in your coming drafts as Alex Gordon was last year and long-term projects as a perennial all-star and a top 20 player for years to come. WEBSITE.WS - Your Internet Address For Life™

His similarities to Gordon unfortunately do not end with pedigree and hype, but also with him being drastically overvalued in redraft leagues. Cincinnati picked up Adam Dunn's option, and with all three Reds outfielders returning, it's not clear where Bruce fits in right now. Cincinnati could be content with Bruce delaying his service time and fine-tuning his game in Triple-A for at least the first few months, though he really has little to nothing left to prove in the minors.

Bruce rates as above average in all five tools, with his bat his calling card (and it's quite the calling card). He has the ability to hit for both a very high batting average (.310+) and power (20 HR), this year. He'll be able to play an average centerfield, but long term projects as a right fielder which will allow his body to fill out. His major problem thus far has been a rather high K rate (23.5% at Triple-A last year), which combined with his lucky BABIP rates (.351, .400, .429 and .359 at his four respective stops, though this could be a developing skill), low contact rate (74%) and high ground ball rate (39%) says he'll have a bit of trouble with more advanced pitching – he'll be 21 at season's start after all. This is likely a temporary setback, and Cincinnati has proven time and time again that they'll promote (and stick with) pure power regardless of low average. But for 2008, what his production holds, overall, is still a major question. 204 plate appearances in Triple-A is not the same as a full year in the majors.

When you combine this with the lack of a clear spot for him to play, you'll be risking an awful lot with the high pick you'll have to use to grab him. Of course, if you're in a keeper league he'll be worth whatever you spend now at some point in the near future, but for those in one-year leagues, he's an extremely risky investment as he'll most likely be gone by the 7th to 10th rounds (and higher in NL-only). If he's there in the twelfth or lower rounds, by all means make the move, but this will be the exception, not the rule. If things change and he does get a starting job out of spring training, you can completely trash these numbers below.

315 AB's, .285 BA, 11 HR, 42 R, 45 RBI, 5 SB

Homer Bailey, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
In the world of prospect projecting, a few bad circumstances sure can tarnish a player's outlook, despite all the gushing and fawning he received only months prior. Homer Bailey is the perfect example of this somewhat unfair devaluation. Less than a year ago I was reading comparisons to Nolan Ryan (how accurate this may be is certainly debatable), and now I'm seeing him valued lower than fellow Reds prospect Johnny Cueto on many expert's lists. WEBSITE.WS - Your Internet Address For Life™

Bailey flashes a plus curveball that has the ability to absolutely embarrass hitters, mixed with deceptive drag-and-drop delivery and two above average fastballs. His ¾ arm slot and delivery both are extremely sustainable. He initially struggled at the major league level because he was attempting to incorporate his full arsenal, losing a bit of the bite on his fastball, and sacrificing his command. All he has to do is refine his command and control to become the true ace that he's been long projected to be. And despite the poor results last season, he's on the correct path.

Adding to Bailey's problems last year was the fact that he was injured for the majority of his call-up, straining his groin after his seven-inning, two-hit start against Oakland on June 19. He was shutdown shortly thereafter for two months, returning for three somewhat notable starts in September, winning two. The major knock on Bailey has always been his inefficiency; pitching deep into counts and tiring early, which clearly can be seen in his poor k/bb rates (both 13.7% in the majors).

Barring something miraculous, this is unlikely to change for 2008 (or unfortunately part of 2009). However, he's got a nice repeatable delivery and is a very good athlete, thus the injury tag should not be applied. Still, he's best to be avoided on draft day, as young pitchers usually take years to adjust to the major league level and his repertoire has already been exposed, not to mention pitching in Great American Ballpark. While there is a slight chance it will click for him this season, thus elevating the below numbers, neither he nor Cueto will likely provide substantial value, and staying away from Bailey for another year or so makes the most sense in redraft leagues. Those who own him in keeper leagues do not have much choice but to hold, and must continue to as the potential payoff still remains quite great.

130 IP, 7 W, 104 K, 87 BB, 4.65 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

J.R. Towles, C, Houston Astros
Despite limited high minor league experience, Justin Towles impressed upon his call-up to Houston last season, batting .375/.432/.575 over 45 plate appearances, hitting one home run while only striking out once. Towles has rocketed up many prospect lists due to his ability to steal bases, and reminded some of the next Russell Martin.

The problem is that the two catchers have very different bodies, with Martin four inches shorter and about 35 pounds heavier. Martin is simply much more powerful right now. And while Towles is fast, he was also caught 14 of the 28 times he ran last season, leading one to temper their expectations for his success rates in the big leagues – he did not even attempt one steal in 40 at bats in Houston.

What Towles does have going for him (and against him) is that he does everything well and nothing spectacular. His pitch recognition and plate presence are sound (as evidenced by an 84% contact rate at Double-A), he's adding strength, suggesting that he'll hit for moderate power and a decent average. His speed is above average for a catcher, but his instincts on the base paths need refining. He calls a good game and has soft hands, which is what will keep him up this season under the tutelage of Brad Ausmus. All of these traits do place him as an above average catcher, and definitely worthy of taking a flier on draft day in the final rounds.

What one needs to take pause with is that he has proven little in the high minors due to limited time there. And while his stats last year in the majors look nice on paper, he did it during mop up time and against the following pitchers: Matt Morris, Paul Maholm, Braden Looper (his 8 RBI game), Joel Pineiro, Brad Thompson, Homer Bailey, Kirk Saarloos, Matt Belisle (who he went hitless against) and Jo Jo Reyes. It's likely he needs more time polishing up his skills before he faces superior pitching, and prolonged slumps could be in order in the immediate future. But due to the amount of at bats he's destined to get, and a superior contact skill, he's more than likely to hit for average, suggesting you could do much worse at catcher on draft day. However, the Russell Martin steal totals are a dream right now, and his power still needs a full season to develop.

340 AB, .282 BA, 7 HR, 53 R, 43 RBI, 4 SB

Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals
Rasmus takes a big hit on this list with word that Rick Ankiel will be given every opportunity to open the season as the Cardinals starting centerfielder, and either Skip Schumaker or Ryan Ludwick manning right. If Rasmus was assured of a job, he'd move up this list. A true five-tool talent with nary a weakness, it's looking more and more like Colby will begin the season at Triple-A Memphis, which is where he should be at in terms of his natural progression.

One only has to take a cursory look at his metrics from last season to see a true star in the making. He's still growing into his frame, but still hit 37 doubles and 29 home runs in 555 plate appearances! While he struck out 19.5% of the time, he also showed promising plate presence by walking 12.6%. His fly ball rates were also quite high, while keeping his ground ball rate at a very low 28%. His average was at .274, which does suggest he could struggle at the major league level, and could use a little more time in the minors, but this average is due to climb as he gains more experience against better competition and learns how to avoid prolonged slumps. The sky is the limit with Rasmus.

The big wild card this season with Rasmus is his playing time. If he gets regular at bats, he'll be an above average producer with a slightly better-than Adam Dunn-esque batting average. But because the risk is so high that he'll actually see less than 250 at bats, for 12-team mixed redraft leagues, he's nothing more than a final round flier, and very risky one whom could be taking up valuable bench space with no discernable return for quite some time. Unfortunately, I'd bet on the under with Rasmus in terms of playing time.

240 AB, .248 BA, 11 HR, 31 R, 26 RBI, 8 SB

Deeper Mixed Leagues:

Matt LaPorta, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
Led the NCAA in slugging and OPS and possesses incredible power and excellent plate discipline. A student of the game, if defense improves only moderately, bat will carry him far. Move to left field could yet pay off big dividends for Milwaukee. LaPorta is definitely one to nab in deep leagues earlier than later, and if a keeper league, bump up even further. Might even be worth a flier in a 12-team mixed if he gets the playing time.

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Small frame but has plus command. Though his stamina lacks, his light weight indicates this shouldn't be a future issue. Has impressive pitch movement which is his key to strike outs. Because he can succeed in a variety of roles, may see bullpen action or spot starts for 2008. Future is bright and has shot up many prospect lists. Do not discount because of size.

Manny Parra, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Despite history of arm problems, had an incredibly successful season, highlighted by a perfect game against Red Rock in only his second start in the Pacific Coast League. Has the stuff to absolutely dominate hitters due to plus command and plus curve mixed with above average mixed fastball. Because last season was his first healthy one, he's more than likely due for extended time in Milwaukee's bullpen, but all it will take is another semi-annual Ben Sheets trip to the DL to move him into the rotation. He could easily rocket into the top list provided his arm stays healthy and the opportunity manifests.

Steven Pearce, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pearce is an under-the-table guy to keep your eyes on. Has produced at a 30 home run pace throughout his minor league career, and only defense has held him back. Has power to all fields, plays a solid first base and even has some nice speed for a slugger (16 stolen bases last year). He's blocked by Adam LaRoche, but if his play improves in right field, he could see more time. As it stands, he will have limited at bats, but still could produce at a high level for a rookie and move up this list.

Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh's one true impact player, whom normally would be listed amongst the Bruce's and Rasmus' of the prospect world, slides out of 12-team mixed leagues due to his limited power ceiling and eroding plate discipline. While he will be given an opportunity to compete for the starting center field job, a more likely scenario is a mid-season call up, and a limited fantasy impact outside of steals and runs. His speed and defense is top notch, but as stated above, he still has bat work to fine tune, and that's best done at Triple-A Indianapolis for a full season.

Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Move from behind the plate helped Walker focus on hitting to increasingly positive results. Walker has a smooth swing, good bat speed and some quickness on the base paths, all traits lacking from anyone manning the hot corner in Pittsburgh for some time. Jose Bautista's RZR (.612) says a third base upgrade is needed, though he did make 36 out-of-zone plays, which means Walker is likely limited for 2008. He is, however, their third baseman of the future despite his own limited range.

2008 NL-Only, with projected job:

Eric Patterson, 2B, Chicago Cubs (possible starting/mid-season 2nd baseman)
Felipe Paulino, RHP, Houston Astros (possible 5th starter/middle reliever)
Chris Perez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (middle reliever)
Daniel Moskos, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (middle reliever)
Sean Gallagher, RHP, Chicago Cubs (spot starter)
Tyler Colvin, RF, Chicago Cubs (platoon outfielder)
Brian Barton, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (platoon outfielder)
Matt Maloney, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (possible 5th starter/middle reliever)
Sam Gervacio, RHP, Houston Astros (middle reliever)
Chad Reineke, RHP, Houston Astros (middle reliever/RH specialist)
Kevin Hart, RHP, Chicago Cubs (middle reliever)

[Hache Man]

2008 NL East Prospects
Prospect Contributions for 2008
NL EAST


The first thing that you will notice as we move from the NL Central to the NL East, is that there is comparatively an absolute dearth of qualifying rookie prospects that can help your team this season. Whereas there were five players who would go for $10+ in a regular 5x5 league in the NL Central, in the NL East, there is only one, and his value comes with an extreme downside. So the mood of these lists will be a bit on the somber side.

This is not to say that there are no bright future stars in the NL East, on the contrary, there's plenty; it's just that almost all of them will not be ready to substantially contribute positive stats to their teams this year, nor yours. And again, these are not future keeper lists, but rather, top prospects who may contribute to your successes in 2008. I've received a fair share of emails about this, and I just want to reiterate, these lists are not meant to rank future keepers on their full careers, but for just one season.

Another question was: "how was I determining who qualified for these lists?" I'm using the MLB's rookie designation limits: "A player who hasn't accumulated 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in previous seasons and hasn't spent 45 or more days on 25-man active rosters, not including times when the active list is expanded to 40." That last part should answer why Carlos Gomez isn't on any of the below lists, despite only 125 at-bats in the majors. Nitpicky I know, but this one is already long enough.

I also wanted to thank the many of you who wrote me positive letters. It definitely means a lot that someone out there values the hard work and time I put into these articles. And I know all the Rotoworld staff appreciates the positive feedback. Thanks again folks.

Cameron Maybin, CF, Florida Marlins
No prospect in the NL East currently projects to contribute even a third of the value that Maybin will provide this year, and that's unfortunate for a variety of reasons. The most pressing of these is the fact that Maybin is simply not ready for the majors, and his time there this season could harm his progress. His season ended on a variety of down notes – from the Tigers losing out on the World Series, to his horrible showing in the majors, to him extending that horribleness to the AFL and finally being shut down with a partially dislocated shoulder. So any further disappointments have the potential to send him into a downward spiral that will likely only be corrected by a demotion, and extended time back in the minors.

With that said, Maybin's future does indeed look exceptionally bright. While he moves from a much better team in Detroit, to a suddenly depleted one at the major league level in Florida, he now has little to no competition for the starting center field job. It's essentially his to lose unless the Marlins come to their senses and allow him to progress slowly through their high minors as a 20-year-old. Playing time is one of the major reasons why he's substantially more valuable than anyone else on this particular list.

His skill set is beyond enticing, with incredible athleticism combined with excellent bat speed, and great batting average ability and power in the future. He's also a plus defender with amazing range and great arm strength. Maybin's also big, fast and has excellent instincts on the base paths. He is a true five-tool player, with a great make-up and is a true student of the game. The major issue here is his contact rates, which are driven by his long swing and below average strike zone judgment. Consider that he had a contact rate of .70 in 2006 at West Michigan, explaining his .415 BABIP and devaluing the .304/.382/.457 that he hit. Add into that a 9% LD rate and a 26.1% K rate, highlighting that there are some looming issues that need working on that major league pitchers won't likely be willing to help him out with.

Things got relatively better at High-A Lakeland, as he raised his contact rate up to .76, still not a remarkable number, but not bad for a 20-year-old in High A. Maybin also had a very high BABIP of .396, again explaining his .305/.393//488 line as something less than it looks. In his Double-A and MLB stops he had contact rates of .70 and .58, respectively, highlighting to an almost nauseating degree what many in the industry have been saying: the young man is not yet ready. Yes, the injury did not help these numbers, but the pre-injury data supported this kind of drop, though the .58 at Detroit is a likely a combination of both. It should also be noted that both these sample sizes are very small.

What this means for those buying into Cameron Maybin this year is that he's going to score a fair amount of runs, and will actually provide a great deal of value in terms of stolen bases. He may even hit 10-14 home runs. But these numbers will come with an extremely prohibitive batting average; think .230. And over the amount of at-bats that he's likely to get, it could be a real killer for your team, so you have to decide if those steals, runs and home runs are worth the hassle. Most everyone thinks that Maybin gets there eventually in his career, no matter how this year goes for him, and he's one of the top ten prospects in the game, so none of this takes away from his future shine. And this year he will give you around $15 of value in a 5x5 league this year, but it will be a $15 that you may want to stay away from in redraft leagues, though you can certainly sell high. Those in keepers should try and snag him from their impatient owners after about his 5th week up if you want to buy in low. If you already own him on your minor league roster, keep him stashed there the entire year, and possibly even all of next.

467 AB, .233 BA, 11 HR, 86 R, 51 RBI, 34 SB



Brent Lillibridge, SS, Atlanta Braves atlantabraves.com
There's a huge drop-off both in value for this season and value over the long-term, between Maybin and the rest of the players listed here starting now. While there are other prospects in the NL East who rank higher than the rest of these players, none of them are ready to contribute in 2008. And of the prospects that follow in this section, Lillibridge likely will not be as valuable as most them if they all reach their ceilings, as he doesn't have a lot of projecting left. But this is not to say that he's not a very good player, on the contrary. And for 2008, he's number two on this list because he's likely to see the most action without causing actual negative value to your team.

Lillibridge's skill set is that of the prototypical lead-off shortstop– great speed, doubles power and a fairly good batting eye, with an average hovering around the low .270's. All of his batting skills rate at moderate. His defense is very sound and he will stick at shortstop for his career and likely be considered one of the better ones in the majors. This is what he projects at, and he's essentially already there, which is what makes him unique versus these other players, as most are far from realizing their ceilings.

Where the issues come in is with Lillibridge viewing himself as something other than this. While he makes solid contact and has learned to drive the ball with more authority, he hurts his overall batting average by attempting to hit the home run rather than drive the ball to the open parts of the park, and use his natural speed to manufacture extra-base hits. This was manifested more in an on base percentage hit, hidden in his slugging gains.

There is room for Lillibridge to be better in the long run as a complete player, in reality, above just about every shortstop prospect out there. Certainly he has all the makings of a great defensive shortstop with game changing speed and on base ability. Whether or not he realizes this is what's left of his projection remains to be seen, and has a large impact on his role for the next few seasons. As it stands for 2008, he likely begins the season at Triple-A Richmond and is promoted once he begins playing to his actual strengths rather than his own perceived ones. His promotion will likely put him in a reserve role and as a pinch runner, with the chance to flourish at shortstop if he hits well.

161 AB, .266 BA, 4 HR, 29 R, 14 RBI, 13 SB

Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals
The sixth-overall pick in last year's draft, Ross Detwiler has all the makings of Washington's future ace. Plain and simple, the kid has electric stuff with three plus pitches to work with. Detwiler starred for Team USA in 2006, and only because of poor run support on lesser known Southwest Missouri State was Detwiler not the most heralded college pitcher of last year (and maybe because of a little guy named David Price). Add to that he was the first 2007 draftee to make it to the majors, and you can understand why many in Washington are extremely excited.

Detwiler has a ton of projection and an absolutely devastating curve. The left-hander also throws a plus fastball that sits at 90-93 mph and can hit 96. He also has a changeup that is a third plus pitch at times. Combine that with above average command, and you have the perfect mix for a truly dominating pitcher. While Detwiler still needs to add strength, there's little doubt he'll be able to do that to his 6'5" frame.

His professional numbers are so small as to make any assumptions about them would be somewhat improper, but they sure do look good. If we look at his 2007 season at Southwest Missouri State, while we still get an incomplete picture, we can pick out his pitching metrics independent of his team defense. Over 89 innings, he compiled a 2.89 command rate and an 11.2 dominance rate! His 3.84 control rate leaves a little to be desired, and this will likely be the major thing he needs to work on next season in order to be successful.

Detwiler will likely start 2008 at Double-A Harrisburg, but if he improves on his 2007 gains, and gets his control rate down, it's more than likely he will get a mid-season call-up. Washington's rotation has some severe injury concerns so an early call certainly is possible (which would move him up to second on this list), but whenever he gets there, it's likely he starts. His stuff would project well in the Nationals bullpen though, so if he's needed, he could also end up in middle relief. There is a possibility that Detwiler's numbers go up from these projections based upon the rotation's health, or lack thereof.

98 IP, 5 W, 89 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP



Deeper Mixed Leagues

Jair Jurrjens, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Jair Jurrjens is a 22-year-old from Curacao who came over from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria trade with Gorkys Hernandez. He has two above average fastballs and a change up with good arm speed and sinking action. His command is also good and he has an athletic body. Jurrjens struggles with his curveball and his delivery is long. While he changes speeds well, he also leaves pitches up in the zone.

However, durability is his major concern, as he has a lot of effort at his finish and has already established an injury history. Jurrjens has a chance to be the number five starter for Atlanta this year, but because his opposing batting average is likely to hover around .290, it could be ugly times for those involved. He may actually provide some nice win upside now, but likely needs more time in the high minors to make his ratios acceptable.
atlantabraves.com
Brandon Jones, LF, Atlanta Braves
Plain and simple, if Brandon Jones glove was where his bat currently is, he'd likely move up onto the first list, and possibly to the top of it for 2008. He's the complete package, with great bat speed, above average power and batting average ability. His power is also projectable and because of improved plate discipline, could continue to grow. While his speed is average, he has great base instincts, and has the ability to possibly steal 15-20 bases annually. While his arm is strong, he still has accuracy issues.

Left field is still up in the air in Atlanta next season, and while Matt Diaz's bat is pretty special against lefties (and none too shabby against righties), and he has a better glove, there's no doubt that Jones is the Braves preference for the future. If Jones gets extended time there, he could be a Rookie of the Year darkhorse. As it stands now, he'll probably start the year off at Triple-A Richmond while Diaz and Willie Harris fight it out. All it will take is a small slump by both to put Jones in the spotlight. Monitor very closely.

Chris Volstad, RHP, Florida Marlins
Chris Volstad was a 2005 first-rounder, and a tall one at that. Standing in at 6'7", Volstad's largest problem is that he gives up too many hits considering his above average stuff. He pitches to contact due to a below average change-up, mainly because of a failure to repeat his arm speed. He retooled his curveball to induce more grounders, which also tends to inflate the hit rate.

Because Volstad is known for his impeccable poise and ability to take in instruction, it stands to reason that he may learn to get around his high hit rate. His body is very projectable, and it's not like Florida's current pitching staff is reliable health-wise or quality-wise. But because he's so new to the upper levels, this could be some time away. He'll likely start 2008 at Double-A Carolina, and if he can start missing more bats, he'll likely see a mid-season call-up as a fifth starter. What that means, however, remains to be seen for this year.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
An extremely projectable pitcher, Carlos Carrasco has two electric fastballs, a 72-78 mph curve and the best change-up in the Phillies system. Impressive command and arm action, it stands to reason that because he can repeat his ¾ arm delivery that he should stay relatively injury free. One concern is that he does pitch with effort, which could wear him down early in games. He also struggled after his promotion, leading to command/hr rate woes as well as struggles with runners on base. However, he still projects as a power ground ball pitcher, and he is still quite young for how far he's progressed. The question that remains is will he be able to solve his inconsistency?

While it is unlikely that Carrasco is called up this season, there is a remote chance that he gets bullpen work down the stretch for a playoff run. Whether or not Philadelphia wants to toy with that inconsistency in pressure filled games remains to be seen. There is also the small chance that Adam Eaton does not work out, and if Carrasco is dominating the Eastern League, he's given the opportunity. He could definitely move up this list, and has a bright future ahead of him as one of the best young arms in the game.



Jordan Schafer, CF, Atlanta Braves
This write-up is substantially longer than the other deep leaguers because of my affinity for Jordan Schafer. Last years minor league leader in hits, Schafer made more strides than nearly everyone down on the farm last season. He's one of those guys who does not seem to get the respect due to them despite their solid production. He's got a line-drive stroke with nice loft and great speed (4.05). He's a defensive wizard in center, with a plus plus arm, and projects as the Braves long term answer to Andruw Jones. And not only is he solid in the field, but he comes off as a very likable player and a future clubhouse leader. He has that 'something' that companies love to buy into if you're an All-Star level producer.

Despite ending the year at High-A Myrtle Beach, some scouts think he could be ready after the 2008 All Star break. However, he still strikes out too much (19.6% K rate) despite the improved plate patience, and the risk of rushing his bat up to the majors risks damaging the progress he's made with pitch recognition (down to a 14.3% K rate in September from 25.2% in May) – his one major weakness. It would be best if they left him down and let him flourish in the right confines and progress on his natural pace.

While the Rangers netted Schafer's best-friend Elvis Andrus in the Mark Teixeira deal, Schafer was the one player that Atlanta general manager John Schuerholz would not part with under any circumstance. This speaks multitudes to how much the Braves organization values their future Gold Glover. Bet on late 2009 and definitely put on your radar, but I wouldn't expect anything more than a September cup-o-coffee, if that.

2008 NL-Only, with possible job:
Phil Humber, RHP, New York Mets (potential number five starter) newyorkmets.com
Justin Maxwell, CF, Washington Nationals (reserve outfielder)
JA Happ, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (middle reliever, number five starter)
Collin Balester, RHP, Washington Nationals (middle reliever, number five starter)
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals (middle reliever, number five starter)
Greg Golson, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (reserve outfielder)
Robert Andino, SS, Florida Marlins (reserve SS/2B)
John Lannan, LHP, Washington Nationals (potential number five starter)
Joey Devine, RHP, Atlanta Braves (short reliever)
Eulogio de la Cruz, RHP, Florida Marlins (short reliever)
Josh Outman, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (middle reliever, spot starter)
Mike Carp, 1B, New York Mets (reserve 1B, pinch-hitter)
Kevin Mulvey, RHP, New York Mets (middle reliever, spot starter)
Gaby Hernandez, RHP, Florida Marlins (middle reliever, potential number five starter)
Josh Anderson, CF, Atlanta Braves (platoon CF)
Harvey Garcia, RHP, Florida Marlins (short reliever)
Jai Miller, OF, Florida Marlins (reserve outfielder, pinch-runner)
Anderson Hernandez, SS/2B, New York Mets (utility infielder)
Carlos Martinez, RHP, Florida Marlins (short reliever)
Dallas Trahern, RHP, Florida Marlins (middle reliever, spot starter)
Michael Zagurski, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (lefty specialist)

[Hache Man]

2008 NL West Prospects
Prospect Contributions for 2008
NL West


In terms of 2008 production, the NL West falls squarely in between the prospect-rich NL Central, and the prospect-barren NL East, with six players who potentially could give you nice late round value, including one who could be a mid-round steal. While Andy LaRoche, our top player for the NL West, would be in a near tie with the top player in the NL East, Cameron Maybin, he has drastically less negative anchors attached to him, and would be the superior pick despite Maybin's extra benefits of stolen bases and runs. Compared to NL Central talent, LaRoche would likely rank third or fourth this season.

And while I thought that I had made clear what the purpose of these articles were, my mail bag tells me I wasn't so good at explaining this. These are not, repeat, are NOT long-term keeper lists. If they were, Clayton Kershaw would be the far and away top choice in the NL West. However, because he doesn't figure to play in the majors this season, he would have zero impact for your team. Thus, he doesn't rate a top contributing prospect in 2008 despite his amazing long term potential, and was omitted from this article. Likewise, if you don't see someone whom you thought would be up, it's because I either don't think he will be, or that he doesn't rate as a prospect, rather he's an organizational solider, and not likely to project as a big league regular.

While the last few years have seen an explosion in keeper and other specialty leagues, single-season leagues are still the majority. Leagues with a minor league roster, though also becoming more commonplace, are still far and away from being used by a majority. The fact of the matter is that there are plenty of lists out there documenting top 10 prospects for each team in the league and a Google search will come up with many of them. What really isn't out there is a list documenting which of these players will actually help your teams out for the upcoming season, stripped of all the upside and ceiling hype, broken down to the nitty-gritty numbers of what they'll likely produce in their rookie campaigns.

Why is this important? Well, let me use Alex Gordon again as an example. I'm a big believer in Alex Gordon. But Gordon illustrates an important point about overvaluing hype in the short term. Gordon will likely be a great player, but it takes time for these guys to get there, most likely two to three seasons (BJ Upton is a great example of this). A season like Ryan Braun's comes around once maybe every four or five years, and even that is a very liberal estimation. More often, what occurred with Gordon is the norm, and it's important to take that into consideration come draft day, especially when you are new to the game and aren't in a keeper league. Getting caught up in the hype and drafting a prospect way too early can ruin an entire season, and more importantly hasten the creation of the universally reviled 'dead-team syndrome', which is the single biggest problem with public leagues, and why many of us have left them behind.

So again, please understand that you are not going to see all of the top prospects in these lists, simply because many are not going to play in the majors in 2008. That does not mean I've devalued them long-term. It just means that they aren't worth drafting comparative to a player who will actually get 100 plate appearances or 40 innings and produce semi-positive results. And for those in keeper leagues, most are not advisable for you to bring up to your major league squad. It also means that when you see someone of Max Scherzer's caliber (the best player now in the Diamondbacks system) all the way down at the bottom of the last list, it's because his projected value for this season is so low/poor that drafting him would have consequences for your team, not because he's a terrible player. He will be an above-average regular in future seasons given playing time, but this year will be one of those awful ones with many growing pains, and why he should be chosen only after a laundry list of others has been exhausted.

Andy LaRoche, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers

The news out of Los Angeles is that Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche are going to compete for the third base job this spring training. Don't let that bit of information fool you. LaRoche is currently Los Angeles' third baseman of the future (barring a trade, of course), and even if he loses out on the job, general manager Ned Colletti has said he'd be playing on the team in some fashion. Whatever the case may be, LaRoche is going to have the best campaign amongst all NL West players if he stays in the division for the whole season. However, the prospect that he will be moved remains on the higher end of the scale if LA enters the Johan Santana fray.

LaRoche has plus power, the ability to hit the ball to all parts of the park, and great pitch recognition. His bat speed is also superior, indicating he'll hit for both power and a high batting average. His batting eye in Las Vegas was an awesome .929 and his contact rate was an above average 84%. While that contact rate dropped significantly upon his promotion to Los Angeles(as it tends to do for most players called up from the minors), he was able to maintain an above average .833 batting eye, suggesting that he will be able to raise his contact rate significantly with more experience. He also had a staggering .280 isolated power percentage at Las Vegas, which also plummeted upon call-up, but rest assured, he'll hit more towards that Las Vegas number than the .086 isop in LA. And though he tends to get pull-happy at times, he has the ability to be a middle of the order impact bat in short-order given he gets steady major league at bats.

What's keeping him from getting this experience is his average glove work at third base and his below-average speed. His range is poor, and while he's got soft hands and has worked hard to improve at the corner, his inability to project long term there is a major reason why Los Angeles has been looking to move him. He has been somewhat successful at playing left field at Las Vegas, and if he can improve his fielding skills, he's a lock to get plenty of at bats this year.

448 AB, .284 BA, 15 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB

Ian Stewart, 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies

While Ian Stewart's stock has slipped somewhat over the last year, it's hard to discount a guy who previously showed 30 home run potential who'll play half of his games at Coors Field. Not to mention the line-up he'll bat in. And many who have written off Stewart are quick to forget that Matt Holliday did not show very well in the minors either.

Stewart has incredible bat speed with an uppercut swing, allowing him to hit for power to all fields. His swing gets long at times, becoming too pull-conscious, however, his approach has matured and there are small signs that his offense is coming together. He increased his bb% and dropped his k% last year at Colorado Springs, and while the overall changes in percentage were small, the numbers were in the right direction. His range and arm at third are great, and he projects long term as a solid third baseman, though he tends to get sloppy on the routine plays. And though he has average speed, his instincts on the bases say he'll steal more than expected.

The major hurdle in the road for Stewart is Garrett Atkins. Stewart isn't getting any younger, and at age 25 this season, it's likely something has to give. Stewart has been working out at second base, and he will get a shot to win the starting job there this year in spring training. If he can shore up on the routine plays, and hit more balls in the air, he has an outstanding shot at starting at second base, but Jason Nix's glove and range may be too much for Stewart's bat and sometimes lazy glove to overcome. And considering the young age of some of Colorado's starters, having an error-prone lackadaisical second baseman is a recipe for disaster. However, it's clear that Stewart's time is done in the minors, and he really needs major league experience, now. While he may start the year out again at Colorado Springs, he will see a majority of his time up in the majors this season, and if he can put things together, he'll be a draft day steal. If he wins a starting job coming out of spring training, bump all these numbers up by 20-30%.

321 AB, .268 BA, 11 HR, 44 R, 49 RBI, 7 SB

Nate Schierholtz, OF, San Francisco Giants
It really is this bad for the San Francisco Giants - their best prospect is a 17-year-old at least three years away from the majors (Angel Villalona), and really no other prospect ready to substantially contribute this year, except Nate Schierholtz. I'll admit, I'm fairly high on him, especially considering how barren this system was before their 2007 draft, which still seems a bit questionable considering what they passed on. He has the potential to put up very serviceable numbers if he wins a starting outfield job out of spring training, and I think he has a solid shot of doing so when you consider just how truly horrendous San Francisco is.

Schierholtz has progressed very nicely over the past three seasons, decreasing his strike out rate every year, while maintaining his power output and increasing his contact rate (86% last year). While his batting eye (.293) leaves much to be desired, (only a 4.5% bb rate last year), he was able to off-set this with that above-average contact rate and 25% line drive rate. Though his batting eye says he's not a .300 hitter, his contact rate says he's not a .260 hitter either. He's kept his ground ball rate at a nice level upon promotion to San Francisco, and though he walked only once in the AFL, San Francisco will definitely take his .348/.363/.596 line combined with four home runs and eight doubles in 89 at bats. They have to, as they really have no other choice.

Schierholtz is incredibly strong and muscular, and has power to all fields and above average base stealing ability, something sorely lacking from San Francisco's current lineup. He also has improved his range in right field and has a very accurate and strong arm, suggesting that he's got a great shot to start in San Francisco rather than Fresno at season's start. And even if he does end up in Fresno, there's a very good chance that he sees extended time in the big leagues this year.

The biggest knock right now against Schierholtz is San Francisco's lineup. They will be the worst team in the major leagues this year, and rbi opportunities will be few and far between. And while they have Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis and Daniel Ortmeier competing for outfield spots along with Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn and Dave Roberts as established veterans, Schierholtz is younger and has more upside than any of the younger players. San Francisco will likely be out of contention after only a month or so, and there is no reason to suppress Schierholtz's growth to play sub-standard regulars. In fact, he could be the single reason why many fans come to see the Giants this season.

368 AB, .276 BA, 12 HR, 40 R, 39 RBI, 6 SB

Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres
Chase Headley had an outstanding season for San Antonio last year, hitting .330/.437/.580, all tops in the Texas League, with 20 home runs, 38 doubles and five triples, winning the league's MVP award and leading San Antonio to the league championship. He also made his major league debut after Kevin Kouzmanoff sustained an injury to his lower back.

Headley plays above his tools, and has moderate power, bat speed and plate coverage, suggesting that while home runs will not be his forte, long doubles in Petco will, as he has good plate discipline mixed with nice first-step quickness, despite below-average speed. He also has work to do on his left-handed swing, and while he improved his approach in the Texas League, it's still a far cry from the majors.

Headley is blocked by Kouzmanoff, but many think that because Kouzmanoff has superior speed, that moving him to left field and placing Headley at third base is the best option for the organization. Unfortunately, San Diego isn't seeing it that way yet, and still has Kouzmanoff pegged as the starting third baseman, with Headley getting a shot at the left field gig. Regardless of where he plays, it's clear that Headley is ready for some big league time, and San Diego is likely going to give it to him. Petco is going to deflate what home run power he had, but his batting approach suggests that in time he could hit a fair amount of doubles at home with above-average home run power on the road. Also keep in mind he has no Triple-A time, and his contact rate at San Antonio last year was 74%, so there is the possibility that he spends a fair amount of time in Portland learning to hit against superior pitching.

252 AB, .262 BA, 5 HR, 36 R, 40 RBI, 0 SB

Deeper Mixed Leagues:

Jayson Nix, 2B, Colorado Rockies
Jayson Nix is a nice speculative pick for 2008 as he's the leading candidate to start at second base for the Rockies. Colorado has taken their time with Nix, and while he doesn't project as an All-Star, you can do a lot worse than take a chance on a second baseman playing half the time in Coors Field.

Nix sacrificed some of his plate patience for power last season, keeping identical ground ball and line drive rates from the year prior, while dropping his bb% and increasing his k% for 11 total home runs versus two in 2006 at the same level. Marcus Giles is past his prime and is nobody's friend in the clubhouse, so Nix's biggest competition is from Ian Stewart. The Colorado second base job is definitely one to watch during spring training.

Matt Antonelli, 2B, San Diego Padres
The classic over-achiever and all out hustle guy, Antonelli was supposed to be San Diego's starting second baseman this year, despite limited experience in the role, until San Diego signed Tadahito Iguchi. Temper your expectations on Antonelli, now and in the future, as he'll be playing in a park that will sap what little power he has, and while he doesn't attempt to hit the ball like Khalil @@@@@@, it will still turn many of his line drives into outs.

He also doesn't have the glove or range that Khalil sports, and there's little chance that he unseats Iguchi any time soon. And though he's avoided major injury so far in his career, his playing style screams future issues. He also has above-average speed, though his average base path instincts say he might not be as good of a base stealer as his speed suggests. If you own, sell.

Jonathan Meloan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Awesome make-up combined with a plus slider, two above average breaking balls and incredible command. Jonathan Meloan has the opportunity to win a bullpen job this spring training, and could see an important role if he succeeds. He derives his above-average command from his solid ¾ delivery and has plus sink on his fastball, suggesting that if his elbow holds up, he could become extremely valuable to the Dodgers. If Jonathan Broxton is moved, his value goes way up. File under: Future Los Angeles Closer.

Franklin Morales, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Franklin Morales has more upside than every player on this secondary list, and in time will become a dominant starter, however, he's still just 22-years-old, and will likely have a very difficult season pitching in Coors Field. He doesn't repeat his mechanics, his walk rate is very high thus he's fairly inefficient, and when you combine that with his high effort on pitches, we'll likely see him pulled often before completing the fifth inning. He also tends to get very flustered on the mound when things aren't going his way. Avoid in one year leagues, keep on your minor league roster in leagues that have them.

2008 NL-Only, with projected job:

Delwyn Young, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (reserve OF/2B)
Casey Weathers, RHP, Colorado Rockies (short middle relief)
Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (reserve SS/2B)
Eugenio Velez, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF/2B)
Joe Koshansky, 1B, Colorado Rockies (reserve 1B)
Seth Smith, OF, Colorado Rockies (reserve OF)
Brooks Brown, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (reserve 2B)
Billy Buckner, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Juan Gutierrez, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #4 starter)
Esmerling Vasquez, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief)
Max Scherzer, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (short middle relief)
Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF)
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, San Diego Padres (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Billy Sadler, RHP, San Francisco Giants (short middle relief)
Juan Morillo, RHP, Colorado Rockies (short middle relief)
Osiris Matos, RHP, San Francisco Giants (short middle relief)
Nick Pereira, RHP, San Francisco Giants (middle relief)
John Bowker, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF)
Jamie D'Antona, 1B/C/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (reserve 1B/C/3B

[Hache Man]

2008 AL Central Prospects
We leave the National League and its somewhat ample divisional disparities behind to investigate the American League, and its absolutely cavernous divisional disparities. While we will get to the strongest division soon, the American League East, we'll start with what is the weakest division by far in the majors for prospects that can help now and in the future. Frankly, it is just abysmal. This is of course primarily due to the two organizational-gutting trades pulled off by the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox in order to compete with the Boston Red Sox, but also because many of these teams have already promoted their best and brightest, while certain organizations have yet to produce anything substantial in the interim. For this reason, there is little to no chance that the AL Rookie of the Year comes out of the AL Central.

The AL Central also has the distinction of having the fewest prospects that will offer positive dollar values for 2008, with Aaron Laffey topping out the list at a whopping $8 in a 5x5, and no one else offering over $2. Of course, things change, jobs are still up for grabs, and we're all waiting for the proverbial steroid buttock to drop, but from the looks of it, there won't be a whole lot of help coming up from the AL Central farms this year. The sole exception to this is the Cleveland Indians, and even they aren't getting much. I have to admit, after writing this specific article, I'm almost severely depressed by the the absolute dearth of major-league-ready talent in the AL Central, though that could very well be the negative 25 degree weather outside speaking. Nope, it's the AL Central.

Aaron Laffey, LHP, Cleveland Indians
I think a lot of people will laugh (no pun intended) when seeing Aaron Laffey as the top prospect ready to contribute for 2008 on this list, and for good reason, as he projects as only a 3rd starter, at best, in his prime. They will stop laughing after noting he's the only AL Central prospect possibly worth owning this season. Such is the state of the 2008 AL Central prospects. The 6 foot, 180 pound 22-year-old has surpassed both Jeremy Sowers and Cliff Lee in Cleveland's future plans, and looks to be the Indian's number five starter, the primary reason for him topping this list. He's one of the only players listed who will see extended time in 2008, and should put up somewhat serviceable numbers in comparison to everyone else in the division.

Laffey is an extreme groundball pitcher with above-average command and two above-average pitches in his 85-89 mph sinking fastball and a 76-80 mph slider. His changeup, while improving, is still a below-average offering. He's very fast to the plate and is big on preparing for his match-ups. Though Laffey has an athletic build, he is not overpowering or even all that large, and has likely reached his ceiling already in terms of future projection. He also doesn't feature a ton of velocity and has trouble repeating his ¾ arm slot, which prevents his changeup from becoming a quality offering. Because of below-average velocity, Laffey will never be a dominant strikeout pitcher, as evidenced by his 7.0 dominance rate at Buffalo.



Over the course of 49.1 innings in the majors last year, Laffey amassed 25 strikeouts and 25 runs over 49.1 innings. He also maintained his excellent groundball rate at 65%. While these numbers don't scream 'buy', it is important to note that he was able to decrease his control rate every year from 2004 to last years 1.9 in Triple-A. While that shot up to 3.3 during his promotion, it's still evidence that Laffey is learning to harness his command of the plate better. Another specific note on his 2007 MLB performance is his extremely unlucky strand rate of 57%. While groundball pitchers with low dominance rates tend to have somewhat lowered strand rates, this is beyond the normal distribution pattern for pitchers of Laffey's skill set. Combine this with his .323 BABIP and a fair number of ground balls that Laffey gave up luckily found their way through holes in Cleveland's defense, most likely on the left side of the diamond. Laffey is great at keeping the ball in the park, and as Cleveland's fifth starter, he's likely to see more than a few wins drop in his lap. The real question is if he can shore up his control and pitch deep enough into games to qualify for the win.

108 IP, 9 W, 69 K, 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Deeper Mixed Leagues:

Nick Blackburn, RHP, Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins are masters at developing pitchers in the mold of Brad Radke, what with Kevin Slowey making an impact this year in the Twins rotation, and Nick Blackburn shortly behind him. Blackburn will never be known as a pitcher with even moderate strike out numbers, however, his plus command of three above-average pitches with good speed changes will allow him to keep the ball in the park and more often than not on the ground. His consistency and stamina will also allow him to pitch at least five to six innings plus per outing, giving Minnesota both a solid end-of-the-rotation and bullpen option to work with for 2008. minnesotatwins.com

Blackburn is definitely slated for Triple-A to start the season, and while his amazing 2007 seemingly came out of nowhere, it wasn't necessarily shocking. It's clear he'll likely figure into some bullpen action for the big team at some point, with the occasional spot start if he can keep up with what he built last year. While Minnesota does have a lot of pitching options to work with, many of them are still too young for major league duty, leaving Blackburn as one of the first candidates to earn a job either in the rotation or bullpen depending on Minnesota's needs. He'll likely never be a top draft pick in fantasy, however, and will most likely just be a good back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but in this division, you've got to shine whatever you can, because there's a lot of coal.

Luke Hochevar, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Luke Hochevar has the unique distinction of either rising or falling significantly this season in terms of AL Central prospects. He's got the potential to have a starting job at some point, which should immediately place him in a position of value comparative to his divisional brethren, however, his inability to fully put together his potential could very easily signal disaster for those rostering him.



Hochevar has five pitches to go to, three of them above-average, with great command and a repeatable ¾ delivery. He's given up a fair share of home runs and his command unfortunately has not progressed well due to issues with his delivery. He will likely start the year at Triple-A, and while his surface stats in the majors last year look good, they simply do not match up with his numbers at Double and Triple-A. Though it is true he was pitching in two hitter-friendly ballparks, as well as hitter-friendly leagues, that still won't cut it at the major league level with substandard peripherals.

Because of Hochevar's pedigree, you must attentively watch his spring training to see what pitcher we are going to see this year. While he battled wildness and tended to over-think his pitching, he worked on correcting both flaws, and sometimes a pitcher with a nice pedigree only needs small changes to begin to realize his potential. He's also been somewhat of a strange beast in terms of his progression, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him become the top rated prospect in the AL Central this year if he both gets the opportunity and puts everything together. I would not specifically bet the over on Hochevar, but as of right now I'm holding on him until we get to see how things progress for him in March.

Ben Francisco, OF, Cleveland Indians
That's it! No one else will likely provide substantial value in the AL Central. With that said, there are a few guys that may help those of you in AL-only leagues. Ben Francisco is currently the Indians fifth outfielder, and is only likely to see about 140 plate appearances this year, with likely little power, a good batting average and a little speed. He has the range and arm to play any outfield position which will likely help his plate appearances should anyone go down in Cleveland's outfield. However, due to his limited power now at age 26, he likely will not become a regular starter in the major leagues.

Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Cleveland Indians
Chuck Lofgren has three above-average pitches, good command, pitches aggressively from a downward plane and repeats his high ¾ delivery well. That's why it's a mystery to the Indians organization that Lofgren struggled last year after a breakout 2006 campaign. He still led the organization in strike outs, however, his 146.1-153-68-123 line in Double-A was not what Cleveland was hoping for.

Lofgren will likely see a significant amount of time this year in Triple-A, refining his game and attempting to move his pitches a little more down and a little more inside. If Aaron Laffey succeeds in his starting role with Cleveland, it's likely we'll only see Lofgren as a reliever, with the occasional spot start here and there. And this is all dependent upon Lofgren performing at the Triple-A level first. The likelihood that he sees significant action this year is small.

Adam Miller, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Adam Miller is Cleveland's top prospect, and whether or not that is a good thing for them remains to be seen, and the answer is progressively tilting towards the negative. Nobody doubts that Miller has filthy stuff- three above-average pitches including a fastball that tops out at 98, plus a solid fourth offering in a quality changeup,



as well as solid mound aggressiveness- it's that Miller has yet to shake the injury tag, and things only seem to be getting worse in that department, as he keeps finding malady after malady to compound onto an already beaten body.

Because of these injury concerns, Miller has been moved to the bullpen for the foreseeable future, and due to his regression over the last season and into the AFL, it's quite likely he'll need a lot more time in Triple-A this year than Cleveland was hoping for. And because Cleveland is a serious contender, it's unlikely that they throw Miller into pressure situations for fear he injures himself trying to do everything he can for the team. Unless Miller magically manifests consistency out of thin air and is able to keep the wheels on for an extended period of time, expect that any time he sees in the majors this year to be full of bumps and bruises. Avoid and sell while you still can.

2008 NL-Only, with projected job:

Virgil Vazquez, RHP, Detroit Tigers (possible 5th starter, middle relief)
Trevor Crowe, OH, Cleveland Indians (reserve OF)
Jeff Larish, 1B, Detroit Tigers (reserve 1B, DH)
Michael Holliman, 2B/SS, Detroit Tigers (utility infielder)
Jason Pridie, OF, Minnesota Twins (reserve OF)
Jordan Brown, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians (reserve 1B, OF, DH)
Freddy Guzman, OF, Detroit Tigers (reserve outfielder, pinch runner)
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Minnesota Twins (possible 5th starter, middle relief)
Jordan Tata, RHP, Detroit Tigers (possible 5th starter, middle relief)
Yorman Bazardo, RHP, Detroit Tigers (possible 5th starter, middle relief)
Scott Lewis, LHP, Cleveland Indians (middle relief)
Carlos Rosa, RHP, Kansas City Royals (spot starter, middle relief)
Brian Duensing, LHP, Minnesota Twins (spot starter, middle relief)
Charles Haeger, RHP, Chicago White Sox (possible 5th starter, middle relief)
Chris Lubanski, OF, Kansas City Royals (platoon OF)
Oswaldo Sosa, RHP, Minnesota Twins (middle relief)
Matt Joyce, OF, Detroit Tigers (reserve outfielder)
Mitch Maier, OF, Kansas City Royals (reserve outfielder)
Oneli Perez, RHP, Chicago White Sox (short relief)
Justin Huber, 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals (platoon 1B, OF)
Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Chicago White Sox (spot starter, middle relief)
Lance Broadway, RHP, Chicago White Sox (spot starter, middle relief)
Jarod Plummer, RHP, Kansas City Royals (short reliever)
Dewon Day, RHP, Chicago White Sox (short reliever)

[Hache Man]

2003 Prospects Review
Below is a review of the preseason Top 150 Prospects column from 2003. I've left the players listed with their ages (as of Opening Day 2003), ETAs and 2002 stats from that column and added in where each player was listed on Baseball America's top 100 and Baseball Prospectus' top 40. This is back from an era when I used to post my prospects list before most of the others came out (the Top 150 was published on Jan. 6), but there are still plenty of similarities. I've also added brief writeups for the top 100.

I'll begin the 2008 team top 10s next week, with the new Top 150 scheduled for early March.


2003 Top 150 Prospects

1. Mark Teixeira - 3B Rangers - Age 22 - ETA: May 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #10, mid-2002 #3 texasrangers.com

BA: #1, BP: #1

.320/.411/.593, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 24/21 K/BB, 2 SB in 150 AB for Single-A Charlotte
.316/.415/.591, 10 HR, 28 RBI, 36/25 K/BB, 3 SB in 171 AB for Double-A Tulsa
.333/.437/.616, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 24/17 K/BB, 1 SB in 99 AB for Peoria (AFL)

2003 quote: It's only a bit of an exaggeration to say that he's Mike Schmidt to Blalock's George Brett.

Interestingly, BA and Prospectus also had him ranked 10th in 2002. Teixeira was essentially the consensus No. 1 prospect after his first pro season, though one of the four Baseball America writers to list his picks (Josh Boyd) went with Rocco Baldelli over him.


2. Jose Reyes - SS Mets - Age 19 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #2 newyorkmets.com

BA: #3, BP: #3

.288/.353/.462, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 35/30 K/BB, 31 SB in 288 AB for Single-A St. Lucie
.287/.331/.425, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 42/16 K/BB, 27 SB in 275 AB for Double-A Binghamton

2003 quote: Reyes could be the best shortstop in the National League by 2006.

My biggest oversight in 2002, as Baseball America was smart enough to rank him 34th after he hit .307/.337/.472 in low-A ball.


3. Joe Mauer - C Twins - Age 19 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #17, mid-2002 #7 minnesotatwins.com

BA: #4, BP: #9

.302/.393/.392, 4 HR, 62 RBI, 42/61 K/BB, 0 SB in 411 AB for Single-A Quad City

2003 quote: By 2007, it's very possible he'll be the premier catcher in baseball.

Mauer ended up slugging just .426 -- .094 isolated -- in 1,055 at-bats as a minor leaguer. He hasn't quite met expectations in the power department yet in the majors, but he is at .459 and .146 isolated.


4. Brandon Phillips - 2B/SS Indians - Age 21 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #26, mid-2002 #4

BA: #7, BP: #6

.327/.380/.506, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 33/16 K/BB, 6 SB in 245 AB for Double-A Harrisburg
.257/.297/.457, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB for Triple-A Ottawa
.283/.321/.453, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 39/14 K/BB, 8 SB in 223 AB for Triple-A Buffalo
.258/.343/.419, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 31 AB for Cleveland

2003 quote: He'll hit .290-.300 with 20 homers per year once he reaches his prime.

It's been a bumpy road, but Phillips may yet justify this ranking. I still think it's a shame that he's spent his career as a second baseman when he's always had the range for short.


5. Hee Seop Choi - 1B Cubs - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2001 #12, mid-2001 #15, 2002 #20, mid-2002 #9

BA: #22, BP: #7

.287/.406/.513, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 119/95 K/BB, 3 SB in 478 AB for Triple-A Iowa
.180/.281/.320, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 15/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 50 AB for Chicago (NL)
.345/.456/.714, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 24/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 84 AB for Mesa (AFL)

2003 quote: The South Korean slugger should contend for Rookie of the Year honors…

Sure, the numbers guys always liked him more, but the scouty types thought he'd make it, too. Choi is playing in Korea now and probably won't be seen in the States again outside of the World Baseball Classic.


6. Joe Borchard - OF White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #9, 2002 #9, mid-2002 #5

BA: #28, BP: #22

.000/.667/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 3 AB for Single-A Winston-Salem
.272/.349/.498, 20 HR, 59 RBI, 139/49 K/BB, 2 SB in 438 AB for Triple-A Charlotte
.222/.243/.389, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 14/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 36 AB for Chicago (AL)

2003 quote: … a potential 35-homer outfielder in the majors.

BA had him 12th in 2002, but downgraded him a bit, probably because of the lofty strikeout total. I should have done the same, but switch-hitters with his kind of power don't come around very often. Borchard hit just .196/.287/.313 in 179 at-bats for the Marlins last season and will be a long shot to make the Braves out of spring training.


7. Michael Cuddyer - OF Twins - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #42, 2002 #38, mid-2002 #6

BA: #17, BP: #15

.309/.379/.594, 20 HR, 53 RBI, 79/36 K/BB, 12 SB in 330 AB for Triple-A Edmonton
.259/.311/.429, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 30/8 K/BB, 2 SB in 112 AB for Minnesota

2003 quote: Fantasy owners should look at him as the new Tim Salmon.

Cuddyer has turned into a nice player, but BA and BP gave him more appropriate rankings. I thought he'd be a better OBP guy after seasons of 76 and 75 walks at lower levels.


8. Rocco Baldelli - OF Devil Rays - Age 21 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #36

BA: #2, BP: #28

.333/.382/.535, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 63/18 K/BB, 21 SB in 312 AB for Single-A Bakersfield
.371/.413/.529, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 11/5 K/BB, 3 SB in 70 AB for Double-A Orlando
.292/.292/.469, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 23/0 K/BB, 2 SB in 96 AB for Triple-A Durham
.308/.352/.376, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 23/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 133 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL)

2003 quote: The Rhode Island native is right where Corey Patterson was two years ago, and Patterson still hasn't learned how to hit major league pitching.

BA looked at the athleticism and ranked him accordingly. BP looked at the 97/23 K/BB ratio. I was firmly in the middle in this case. I don't think it's necessarily fair to say that BP was right. They weren't downgrading him because of his durability issues, and it's anyone's guess what kind of player he'd be right now if he had stayed healthy.


9. Wilson Betemit - SS Braves - Age 21 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #42, mid-2001 #38, 2002 #6, mid-2002 #11
atlantabraves.com
BA: #49, BP: #31

.364/.417/.474, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 11 AB for Rookie GCL Braves
.245/.312/.370, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 82/34 K/BB, 8 SB in 343 AB for Triple-A Richmond

2003 quote: Betemit's Triple-A numbers weren't pretty, but he was playing in the International League as a 20-year-old and he did raise his average from .198 to .245 by batting .292 after the All-Star break.

BA had him eighth and BP ranked him fifth in 2002. Both knocked him well down after his poor first season in Triple-A, but I looked at his strong second half and the fact that he was one the youngest players at the level and kept him in the top 10. It looks like he belonged more where BP ranked him, but he can play. He has a career .260/.332/.439 line, and he was a little better than that last season.


10. Francisco Rodriguez - RHP Angels - Age 21 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #65

BA: #10, BP: #21

3-3, 9 Sv, 1.96 ERA, 32 H, 61/15 K/BB in 41 1/3 IP for Double-A Arkansas
2-3, 6 Sv, 2.57 ERA, 30 H, 59/13 K/BB in 42 IP for Triple-A Salt Lake
0-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 13/2 K/BB in 5 2/3 IP for Anaheim

2003 quote: I hope that we'll someday see Rodriguez starting games for Anaheim, but spending the next two years as a multi-inning reliever would probably be for good for Francisco and his amazing right arm.

Even as good as he looked in the 2002 postseason, no one would rank a reliever any higher than 10th.


11. Jerome Williams - RHP Giants - Age 21 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #44, mid-2001 #31, 2002 #23

BA: #50, BP: #8

6-11, 3.59 ERA, 140 H, 130/50 K/BB in 160 2/3 IP for Triple-A Fresno
0-0, 2.05 ERA, 10 H, 25/7 K/BB in 22 IP for Grand Canyon (AFL)

2003 quote: Williams has always had a great deal of success in the minors despite being one of the youngest players at his level.

A lot of the prospect arguments in 2003 centered on whether Williams or Jesse Foppert was the better prospect. The statheads gave Williams the edge based on youth. Baseball America, though, actually downgraded him from 19th in 2002 to 50th. His velocity had dropped a bit, and he never did show the same kind of stuff in the majors that he did in the low minors. It seems doubtful that he'll have any further success.


12. Jesse Foppert - RHP Giants - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #23

BA: #5, BP: #13

3-3, 2.79 ERA, 44 H, 74/21 K/BB in 61 1/3 IP for Double-A Shreveport
3-6, 3.99 ERA, 71 H, 109/35 K/BB in 79 IP for Triple-A Fresno

2003 quote: Foppert … has even more upside than Williams. The right-hander throws in the mid-90s and has a hard slider.

Baseball America and John Sickels rated Foppert as the game's top pitching prospect. They were both right that he was better than Williams, for all the good it did them. Foppert never truly made it back from Tommy John surgery in 2003 and probably never will.


13. Adam Wainwright - RHP Braves - Age 22 - ETA: July 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #51, mid-2002 #13

BA: #18, BP: HM

9-6, 3.31 ERA, 149 H, 167/66 K/BB in 163 1/3 IP for Single-A Myrtle Beach

2003 quote: …good enough to make him a No. 2 starter in the majors once he tightens up his control. Expect great things after he reaches Atlanta.

Wainwright went to the Cardinals for J.D. Drew, became a postseason hero as a closer in 2006 and now seems to be settling in as a No. 3 starter, though he'll probably go on Opening Day for St. Louis.



14. Victor Martinez - C Indians - Age 24 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #89

BA: #16, BP: #4

.336/.417/.576, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 62/58 K/BB, 3 SB in 443 AB for Double-A Akron

2003 quote: Martinez will be an outstanding fantasy catcher, perhaps the best in the league someday.

The debate about whether Martinez would survive as a catcher played a definite role in this ranking. He should have been in the top 10 anyway.



15. Rich Harden - RHP Athletics - Age 21 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #19

BA: #29, BP: #12

4-3, 2.91 ERA, 49 H, 85/24 K/BB in 68 IP for Single-A Visalia
8-3, 2.95 ERA, 67 H, 102/52 K/BB in 85 1/3 IP for Double-A Midland

2003 quote: Signed in 2001 as a draft-and-follow, Harden has quickly pushed himself into the upper echelon of pitching prospects.

Harden topped the Midseason Top 150 before reaching the majors for the first time in the second half.


16. Josh Hamilton - OF Devil Rays - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #2, mid-2001 #5, 2002 #16, mid-2002 #8

BA: #33, BP: NR

.303/.359/.507, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 46/20 K/BB, 10 SB in 211 AB for Single-A Bakersfield

2003 quote: Hamilton is as talented as anyone in the minors, but there is reason to be concerned that he will never reach his full potential.

Even before the substance abuse problems, injuries were taking a toll on Hamilton's stock. They still are now. There's no way the Reds would have given up for Edinson Volquez if they thought he'd be good for 140 games per year.


17. Gavin Floyd - RHP Phillies - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #94, mid-2002 #26

BA: #9, BP: HM

11-10, 2.77 ERA, 119 H, 140/64 K/BB in 166 IP for Single-A Lakewood

2003 quote: If he stays healthy, he could be the top pitching prospect in baseball at this time next year.

Floyd's stuff isn't what it was five years ago, and consistency with his still fine curveball has never come. There were some positive signs late last year, but he's now a fifth starter at best.


18. Dewon Brazelton - RHP Devil Rays - Age 22 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #32, mid-2002 #15

BA: #74, BP: NR

5-9, 3.33 ERA, 129 H, 109/67 K/BB in 146 IP for Double-A Orlando
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 6/1 K/BB in 5 IP for Triple-A Durham
0-1, 4.85 ERA, 12 H, 5/6 K/BB in 13 IP for Tampa Bay

2003 quote: His curveball will be the deciding factor on whether he becomes a top-notch starter or not.

Brazelton was the third overall pick in the 2001 draft and had just turned in a solid first pro season, so I ranked him accordingly. The truth is that he never should have been drafted that high, and I should have recognized it.


19. Jason Stokes - 1B Marlins - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #27

BA: #15, BP: #11

.341/.421/.645, 27 HR, 75 RBI, 96/47 K/BB, 1 SB in 349 AB for Single-A Kane County

2003 quote: He'll probably lose some points off his batting average as he climbs the ladder, but Stokes should be good for 30-40 homers per season in the majors.

Stokes fell to .272/.345/.513 in 394 at-bats in Double-A in 2004 and hasn't had close to a healthy season since. In fact, he's totaled 345 at-bats in three years.


20. Justin Morneau - 1B Twins - Age 21 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #24, 2002 #28, mid-2002 #25

BA: #14, BP: #30

.298/.356/.474, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88/42 K/BB, 7 SB in 494 AB for Double-A New Britain
.282/.331/.423, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 31/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 142 AB for Phoenix (AFL)

2003 quote: Morneau has the potential to be one of the American League's better first basemen, batting over .300 and hitting 25 homers per year.

Morneau had a .319 average and 43 homers in 1,235 minor league at-bats up to this point. Given his build, it was obvious that more power would come. I undersold him at 25 homers per year.



21. Jon Rauch - RHP White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: May 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #10, mid-2001 #10, 2002 #13, mid-2002 #48

BA: #92, BP: NR

7-8, 4.28 ERA, 91 H, 97/42 K/BB in 109 1/3 IP for Triple-A Charlotte
2-1, 6.59 ERA, 28 H, 19/14 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP for Chicago (AL)

2003 quote: The 6-foot-11 right-hander has a low-90s fastball and fine control of his breaking pitches. He still has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.

No, not really. Rauch was a unanimous elite prospect after a 2000 season in which he struck out 187 and walked 49 in 166 innings, and he still needed to be taken seriously after a nice comeback from his shoulder problems. However, he was no future top-of-the-rotation guy. He has turned into a valuable setup man while throwing 178 2/3 innings the last two years.


22. Chris Snelling - OF Mariners - Age 21 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2001 #31, mid-2001 #26, 2002 #19, mid-2002 #21

BA: #39, BP: #10

.326/.429/.506, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 11/12 K/BB, 5 SB in 89 AB for Double-A San Antonio
.148/.207/.259, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 27 AB for Seattle

2003 quote: Injuries have been a problem throughout Snelling's career, and because of his ultra-aggressive style of play, it's possible that he'll continue to get hurt rather frequently.

I'm about through holding out hope at this point.


23. Scott Kazmir - LHP Mets - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None newyorkmets.com

BA: #11, BP: NR

0-1, 0.50 ERA, 5 H, 34/7 K/BB in 18 IP for Rookie Brooklyn

2003 quote: Maybe Kazmir will get hurt and never amount to anything, but he looks like a future ace right now. … The sky is the limit.

Kazmir ranked as the No. 14 prospect in the mid-2004 update before being shipped to the Rays.


24. Kurt Ainsworth - RHP Giants - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2001 #14, mid-2001 #23, 2002 #33, mid-2002 #23

BA: #64, BP: #19

8-6, 3.41 ERA, 101 H, 119/43 K/BB in 116 IP for Triple-A Fresno
1-2, 2.10 ERA, 22 H, 15/12 K/BB in 25 2/3 IP for San Francisco

2003 quote: Ainsworth throws 92-94 mph and has four pitches. He projects as a quality No. 3 starter.

Ainsworth made the Giants in 2003 and went 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 starts before going down with a stress fracture in his shoulder blade. He was traded to the Orioles while still on the disabled list and gave up 36 earned runs in 33 innings over the rest of his career. Due to multiple shoulder surgeries, he hasn't pitched since 2004.


25. Marlon Byrd - OF Phillies - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #22, mid-2002 #24

BA: #63, BP: #14

.297/.362/.476, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 98/46 K/BB, 15 SB in 538 AB for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
.229/.250/.371, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 8/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB for Philadelphia

2003 quote: Expect him to hit .280 and post an 800 OPS in a typical season.

Byrd hit .303/.366/.418 in 495 at-bats as a rookie in 2003, but he never came close to doing it again until last season with the Rangers. It looks like he'll be a solid fourth outfielder going forward.


26. Miguel Cabrera - 3B Marlins - Age 19 - ETA: August 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #45, 2002 #41, mid-2002 #31

BA: #12, BP: #29

.274/.333/.421, 9 HR, 75 RBI, 85/38 K/BB, 10 SB in 489 AB for Single-A Jupiter

2003 quote: Cabrera still hasn't had his breakthrough season, but 2002 was another step forward, as he lined 43 doubles for Jupiter. … He has the tools to develop into an All-Star.

BA's aggressive approach worked out very well here. Cabrera ended up playing just 69 more games in the minors.


27. Hanley Ramirez - SS Red Sox - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #19, BP: #33

.341/.402/.555, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 15/16 K/BB, 8 SB in 164 AB for Rookie GCL Red Sox
.371/.400/.536, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 14/4 K/BB, 4 SB in 97 AB for short-season Single-A Lowell

2003 quote: Since he's a 19-year-old who has yet to play full-season ball, he can't be considered one of the game's top 20 prospects just yet, but it's entirely possible that he'll be in the top 10 next year.

Ramirez had already gotten a reputation for attitude problems by this time, but those have been pretty much forgotten about now. Certainly he'd still be a terrific player now if not traded by the Red Sox, but I wonder if he'd still have the same relatively pristine reputation under the microscope in Boston.


28. Jack Cust - OF/1B Rockies - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2001 #22, mid-2001 #18, 2002 #25, mid-2002 #14

BA: NR, BP: HM

.265/.407/.524, 23 HR, 55 RBI, 121/83 K/BB, 6 SB in 359 AB for Triple-A Colorado Springs
.169/.295/.264, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 32/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 65 AB for Colorado

2003 quote: If Cust gets to an American League team, he'll immediately become an above average designated hitter.

By immediately, I meant in four years or so. Cust was ranked 38th by BA in 2001 and 100th in 2002, but they had given up on him by now, placing him 21st among Rockies prospects alone. Prospectus ranked him 37th in 2001 and 20th in 2002. If he didn't lose rookie eligibility with the Orioles in 2003, I would have gone ahead and kept ranking him.


29. Casey Kotchman - 1B Angels - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #75, mid-2002 #34

BA: #13, BP: #27

.281/.390/.444, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 37/48 K/BB, 2 SB in 288 AB for Single-A Cedar Rapids

2003 quote: Kotchman has star potential, but a wrist injury limited him for the season straight season in 2002.

Kotchman still figures to justify the lofty rankings after hitting .296/.372/.467 as a 24-year-old in 2007.


30. Scott Hairston - 2B Diamondbacks - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #51

BA: #26, BP: #23

.332/.426/.563, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 74/58 K/BB, 9 SB in 394 AB for Single-A South Bend
.405/.442/.797, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 16/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 79 AB for Single-A Lancaster
.255/.333/.457, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 27/9 K/BB, 0 SB in 94 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)

2003 quote: The 2001 third-round pick could end up being an adequate left fielder in the majors, but if he can stay at second base, he'd do a nifty Jeff Kent impersonation.

Hairston couldn't stay at second base, and he's yet to establish himself as much of a left fielder, though there's still time left. He hit .287/.337/.644 in 87 at-bats after joining the Padres last season.


31. Bobby Jenks - RHP Angels - Age 22 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: None

BA: #60, BP: #40

3-5, 4.82 ERA, 50 H, 64/14 K/BB in 65 1/3 IP for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga
3-6, 4.66 ERA, 49 H, 58/44 K/BB in 58 IP for Double-A Arkansas
1-1, 1.08 ERA, 33 H, 54/17 K/BB in 41 2/3 IP for Scottsdale (AFL)

2003 quote: Of course, of the top 30 or so pitching prospects in the minors, Jenks is one of the most likely not to have any kind of career at all in the majors. He's also one of the two or three pitchers most likely to develop into a real ace.

Jenks' arm wasn't going to hold up as a starter, but it looks like he'll last as a closer, especially after trading in some strikeouts for quicker outs in 2007.


32. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B Marlins - Age 20 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #34, 2002 #34, mid-2002 #39

BA: #31, BP: #24

.266/.344/.437, 17 HR, 96 RBI, 112/54 K/BB, 6 SB in 508 AB for Double-A Portland

2003 quote: Gonzalez was the first player picked in the 2000 draft, but he's never been looked at as a future superstar. What he's going to be is a nice regular at first base.

Everyone seemed to be in agreement on Gonzalez after 2002. However, by the time 2004 rolled around, I still had him at No. 33, while BA put him at No. 52 and BP left him out of their top 50. By that time, people seemed pessimistic that he'd show even 15-homer power in the majors. However, he was always so young for his leagues that I remained encouraged. I think a similar thing is happening with Ryan Sweeney right now.


33. John Patterson - RHP Diamondbacks - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: None

BA: #79, BP: #26

10-5, 4.23 ERA, 117 H, 104/45 K/BB in 112 2/3 IP for Triple-A Tucson
2-0, 3.23 ERA, 27 H, 31/7 K/BB in 30 2/3 IP for Arizona

2003 quote: Patterson, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2000, throws in the mid-90s and has a very good curve. If he can stay healthy, he might be Arizona's ace someday.

Or he could be traded for Randy Choate. Because he was out of options, the Diamondbacks dumped Patterson after he went 1-4 with a 6.05 ERA in eight starts and eight relief appearances in 2003.


34. Aaron Cook - RHP Rockies - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #37

BA: #41, BP: NR

7-2, 1.42 ERA, 73 H, 58/19 K/BB in 95 IP for Double-A Carolina
4-4, 3.78 ERA, 67 H, 32/18 K/BB in 64 1/3 IP for Triple-A Colorado Springs
2-1, 4.54 ERA, 41 H, 14/13 K/BB in 35 2/3 IP for Colorado

2003 quote: He did an outstanding job of keeping the ball on the ground while with the Rockies, and if that continues, he's going to have a lot of success.

This is one case where BP should have placed a lot less weight on a pitcher's strikeout rate.


35. B.J. Upton - SS Devil Rays - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
Previous rankings: None

BA: #21, BP: NR

2003 quote: Upton is a quality defensive shortstop with plenty of offensive ability. He could start for Tampa Bay as soon as 2006.

BP wasn't ready to give a spot to a player who had yet to play a pro game. Upton was the second overall pick in the 2002 draft. The Pirates passed him over in favor of Bryan Bullington.


36. Aaron Heilman - RHP Mets - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #77, mid-2002 #47

BA: #45, BP: #17

4-4, 3.82 ERA, 85 H, 97/28 K/BB in 96 2/3 IP for Double-A Binghamton
2-3, 3.28 ERA, 42 H, 35/16 K/BB in 49 1/3 IP for Triple-A Norfolk

2003 quote: Heilman, a Notre Dame product, nearly reached the majors in his first full season. It won't be much longer before he's the Mets' fifth starter.

Heilman still wishes he was in the rotation, but he's come close to justifying this ranking by settling in as one of the game's most valuable setup men.


37. Dontrelle Willis - LHP Marlins - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #98

BA: #43, BP: NR

10-2, 1.83 ERA, 91 H, 101/21 K/BB in 127 2/3 IP for Single-A Kane County
2-0, 1.80 ERA, 24 H, 27/3 K/BB in 30 IP for Single-A Jupiter

2003 quote: Willis' emergence as one of top pitchers in the minors last season has saved the Matt Clement/Antonio Alfonseca deal for the Marlins.

An ETA of 2005? Willis made just six more starts in the minors before debuting on May 9, 2003.


38. Justin Huber - C Mets - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #28

BA: #66, BP: #34

.291/.408/.470, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 81/45 K/BB, 1 SB in 330 AB for Single-A Capital City
.270/.370/.400, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 18/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 100 AB for Single-A St. Lucie

2003 quote: He's still two or three years away from the majors and catching prospects do have a tendency to regress offensively as they climb the ladder, but I'm optimistic.

Huber was always iffy behind the plate, and it turned out that he probably wasn't going to hold up physically as a catcher anyway. His career has stalled since the day the Royals acquired him for Jose Bautista, but he did hit 18 homers in 286 at-bats in Triple-A last season. If he can stay healthy, he still figures to contribute.


39. Ryan Anderson - LHP Mariners - Age 23 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2001 #3, mid-2001 #7, 2002 #8, mid-2002 #29

BA: NR, BP: NR

2003 quote: Anderson has missed each of the last two seasons with torn labrums. Although that type of thing will knock him off a lot of prospects lists, he had no trouble making my top 100. … Randy Johnson established himself as a major leaguer at age 25 and Anderson could do the same.

I'm not very bright sometimes.


40. Ricardo Rodriguez - RHP Indians - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #80, mid-2002 #50

BA: NR, BP: NR

5-4, 1.99 ERA, 56 H, 44/13 K/BB in 68 IP for Double-A Jacksonville
1-0, 3.86 ERA, 13 H, 14/7 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP for Triple-A Las Vegas
3-1, 3.60 ERA, 26 H, 14/7 K/BB in 25 IP for Triple-A Buffalo
2-2, 5.66 ERA, 40 H, 24/18 K/BB in 41 1/3 IP for Cleveland

2003 quote: Rodriguez doesn't have the most upside of Cleveland's outstanding group of pitching prospects, but he looks like a solid No. 3 starter to me.

BA ranked Rodriguez 69th in 2002, but he was a near miss this year. He never posted the same kind of strikeout rate at higher levels that he did in 2000 and 2001. It still looked like he might be useful in a limited role as later as 2005, but he's been a bust in the minors each of the last two years.


41. Ken Harvey - 1B/DH Royals - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #48, 2002 #47, mid-2002 #61

BA: NR, BP: HM

.277/.342/.465, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 87/42 K/BB, 8 SB in 488 AB for Triple-A Omaha
.479/.537/.752, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 23/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 117 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)

2003 quote: Harvey's stock had been on the way down because of his mediocre season in Triple-A, but he changed things in a big way by putting together the greatest Arizona Fall League season ever.

On the one hand, I wouldn't have ranked Jenks nearly as highly if not for his stellar AFL season. But the same can be said about Harvey. After three years ruined by injuries, he's not even going to have the decent career as a role player that it looked like he would.


42. Andy Sisco - LHP Cubs - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #53, BP: NR

7-2, 2.43 ERA, 51 H, 101/39 K/BB in 77 2/3 IP for short-season Single-A Boise

2003 quote: A second-round pick in 2001, Sisco is a 6'9", 260-pound left-hander with a 91-95 mph fastball and a filthy split-fingered offering. He's a pretty big injury risk at this point, but he has ace ability.

Sisco has remained healthier than expected, so he really should have made it. There's still time left for him to turn his career around, but he'd have to show an entirely new level of commitment.


43. Cliff Lee - LHP Indians - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #71

BA: #30, BP: #32

7-2, 3.23 ERA, 61 H, 105/23 K/BB in 86 1/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
2-1, 5.40 ERA, 11 H, 18/10 K/BB in 16 2/3 IP for Double-A Akron
3-2, 3.77 ERA, 36 H, 30/22 K/BB in 43 IP for Triple-A Buffalo
0-1, 1.74 ERA, 6 H, 6/8 K/BB in 10 1/3 IP for Cleveland

2003 quote: I'm not certain Lee will stay healthy, but if he does, he could be Cleveland's No. 2 starter in 2005.

It sure did seem like a good call for a couple of years.


44. Shin-Soo Choo - OF Mariners - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #64

BA: #61, BP: #16

.300/.417/.440, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 98/70 K/BB, 34 SB in 420 AB for Single-A Wisconsin
.308/.460/.564, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 9/9 K/BB, 3 SB in 39 AB for Single-A San Bernadino

2003 quote: He is getting on base nearly 43 percent of the time since making his debut in the second half of 2001, and he's starting to show power. As a result, he's quickly emerging as one of the game's elite outfield prospects.

I was right in the middle on this one. Choo couldn't last in center field, hurting his stock considerably. He still projects as a useful player, though he be might more of a fourth outfielder than a regular against right-handers.


45. Xavier Nady - OF Padres - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #50, 2002 #58, mid-2002 #49

BA: #44, BP: HM

.278/.382/.583, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 40/28 K/BB, 2 SB in 169 AB for Single-A Lake Elsinore
.283/.329/.422, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 60/20 K/BB, 0 SB in 321 AB for Triple-A Portland
.323/.364/.516, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 6/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 31 AB for Peoria (AFL)

2003 quote: Nady won't be an All-Star as an outfielder, but he should be a very solid .280 hitter with 30-homer power.

Nady hit .278 with 20 homers in 431 at-bats last season, but since he's mediocre against right-handers and he's not an asset defensively, he should spend most of his career as a fourth outfielder.



46. Juan Rivera - OF Yankees - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #56, mid-2002 #46

BA: #55, BP: #36

.308/.438/.462, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 3/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 13 AB for Rookie GCL Yankees
.325/.355/.502, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 39/13 K/BB, 5 SB in 265 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.265/.311/.361, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 10/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 83 AB for New York (AL)

2003 quote: As a .290 hitter with 20-homer power, Rivera should be an adequate regular in right field. Whether or not he goes beyond that will be determined by how well he masters the strike zone.

Rivera has a .291 average and 60 homers in 1,492 career at-bats, so I had him pegged pretty well. Still, he hasn't had a 500 at-bat season in his career, and it doesn't look like that will change in 2008.


47. Khalil ++++++ - SS Padres - Age 23 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: None

BA: #57, BP: #37

.270/.400/.297, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 6/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 37 AB for short-season Single-A Eugene
.317/.368/.525, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 33/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 183 AB for Single-A Lake Elsinore

2003 quote: ++++++ was probably the most polished player available in the 2002 draft and the Padres took him with the 14th overall pick.

++++++ drew the second-highest ranking among 2002 draft picks (Upton was higher). I underrated his defense or I probably would have him higher.


48. Jimmy Journell - RHP Cardinals - Age 25 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #95, mid-2002 #35

BA: NR, BP: NR

3-3, 2.70 ERA, 50 H, 66/18 K/BB in 66 2/3 IP for Double-A New Haven
2-4, 3.68 ERA, 38 H, 32/18 K/BB in 36 2/3 IP for Triple-A Memphis

2003 quote: When healthy, Journell showed why he's repeating as the Cardinals' top prospect. The right-hander touches 95 mph with his fastball and has a hard slider.

BP had Journell 44th in 2002, but dropped him after he missed time with elbow and shoulder problems, even though he was quite effective when he was on the mound. They were right to do so, as more arm woes were on the way.


49. Michael Restovich - OF Twins - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #66, mid-2002 #32

BA: #37, BP: NR

.286/.353/.542, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 151/53 K/BB, 11 SB in 518 AB for Triple-A Edmonton
.308/.357/.538, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4/1 K/BB, 1 SB in 13 AB for Minnesota
.231/.309/.342, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 35/14 K/BB, 2 SB in 117AB for Phoenix (AFL)

2003 quote: Restovich isn't an elite prospect, but he does project as a solid left fielder in the majors. The Twins would like to see him cut down on the strikeouts before giving him a job, so Restovich is due to spend another season in Triple-A.

Restovich never did cut back on the strikeouts and won't have a career in the majors as a result.


50. Jose Lopez - SS Mariners - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #79

BA: #38, BP: NR

.324/.360/.464, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 45/27 K/BB, 31 SB in 522 AB for Single-A San Bernadino

2003 quote: 18-year-old players who hit .324 in full-season ball tend to attract notice. That Lopez is also a slick-fielding shortstop makes him a pretty special prospect.

Lopez couldn't last at shortstop. Despite last year's setback, he still figures to justify this ranking by turning in a fine career as a second baseman.


51. Bobby Bradley - RHP Pirates - Age 22 - ETA: Sept. 2004
Previous rankings: 2001 #20, mid-2001 #30, 2002 #52, mid-2002 #55

BA: NR, BP: NR

2003 quote: Bradley spent all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. … If he regains his stuff, he has the fastball and the curveball to be an excellent starter.

Bradley never made it all the way back. He did experience modest success in 34 minor league starts in 2003 and 2004, but he completely lost it in 2005, walking 30 and throwing 10 wild pitches in 12 1/3 innings, and he hasn't been heard from since.


52. Chin-Hui Tsao - RHP Rockies - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #21, mid-2001 NR, 2002 #57, mid-2002 #44

BA: #93, BP: NR

0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 H, 16/2 K/BB in 11 IP for Rookie Tri City
4-2, 2.09 ERA, 34 H, 45/12 K/BB in 47 1/3 IP for Single-A Salem

2003 quote: Tsao made a very impressive comeback from ligament replacement surgery in 2002. Most pitchers who undergo the Tommy John procedure struggle with their command when the first return, but Tsao walked just 14 in his 12 starts.

I don't feel bad about this one at all. Tsao seemed to recapture most of his potential when he went 11-4 with a 2.46 ERA, 88 H and 125/26 K/BB in 113 1/3 IP in Double-A in 2003, but he got hurt again in 2004 and hasn't had a healthy season since. It happens.


53. John Buck - C Astros - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #68, mid-2002 #43

BA: #67, BP: NR

.263/.312/.422, 12 HR, 89 RBI, 93/31 K/BB, 2 SB in 448 AB for Double-A Round Rock
.256/.292/.354, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 10/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 82 AB for Mesa (AFL)

2003 quote: Buck isn't quite on Brad Ausmus' level with the glove, but he will be better than average. Offensively, he should be able hit .260-.270 with 20 homers per season while playing half his games in Minute Maid.

An inability to hit for average has kept Buck in the lower-tier of regular catchers, but since he doesn't turn 27 until July, he has time left to get a little better.


54. Corey Hart - 3B/1B Brewers - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #54

BA: #91, BP: NR

.288/.356/.573, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 101/37 K/BB, 24 SB in 393 AB for Single-A High Desert
.266/.340/.362, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 16/7 K/BB, 3 SB in 94 AB for Double-A Huntsville
.275/.327/.443, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 46/11 K/BB, 5 SB in 149 AB for Maryvale (AFL)

2003 quote: If he can become an adequate third baseman over the next two years, then he has All-Star potential. It's more likely that he eventually has to move back to first base, and since he doesn't have any more offensive upside than Brad Nelson or Prince Fielder, he could become trade bait.

A nice victory for me. Looking back now, the bizarre thing is that the Brewers had Hart at first base in the first place. He was quick enough to handle center and probably should have been groomed as an outfielder right from the start.


55. Kelly Johnson - SS Braves - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #46, mid-2002 #74

BA: NR, BP: NR

.255/.324/.394, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 105/51 K/BB, 12 SB in 482 AB for Single-A Myrtle Beach

2003 quote: It's about time that the Braves move the 2000 supplemental first-round pick off of shortstop. Whether he ends up at third base or in the outfield could depend on Betemit. Johnson is going to hit enough to be able to play an outfield corner in the majors.

BP dropped Johnson from No. 47 to out of the top 100 based on a poor year at a very tough place for hitters. Johnson was one of my favorite prospects, so I was perfectly willing to look past that.


56. Kris Honel - RHP White Sox - Age 20 - ETA: Sept. 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #80

BA: #73, BP: NR

9-8, 2.82 ERA, 128 H, 152/52 K/BB in 153 1/3 IP for Single-A Kannapolis
0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3 H, 8/3 K/BB in 5 1/3 IP for Single-A Winston Salem

2003 quote: Honel has No. 2-starter potential if he can avoid arm problems.

Honel's arm blew up in 2004, and he's posted ERAs over 5.00 when he's been able to pitch the last three years.


57. Alex Escobar - OF Indians - Age 24 - ETA: Sept. 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #8, mid-2001 #13, 2002 #31, mid-2002 #53

BA: NR, BP: NR

2003 quote: Escobar missed last season after tearing an ACL in the spring. The Indians don't expect him back at full speed in 2003, and plan to have him play a corner instead of his usual center field.

Another case of me being too patient with an injured prospect. Maybe Escobar would have learned to kick some of his bad habits had he been able to stay healthy. It doesn't look like we'll ever know.


58. Macay McBride - LHP Braves - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #78

BA: #68, BP: NR

12-8, 2.12 ERA, 119 H, 138/48 K/BB in 157 1/3 IP for Single-A Macon

2003 quote: Like Adam Wainwright, McBride could be a No. 2 starter if he stays healthy. He is a fairly big injury risk.

The Braves didn't think McBride was big enough to hold up as a starter, but he hasn't been able to find any consistency as a reliever. In 103 1/3 innings as a major league reliever, he's walked 64, an average of 5.6 per nine innings. In the minors, he walked 3.3 per nine innings.


59. Chad Tracy - 3B Diamondbacks - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #33

BA: NR, BP: NR

.344/.389/.486, 8 HR, 74 RBI, 51/38 K/BB, 2 SB in 514 AB for Double-A El Paso
.143/.208/.143, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 21 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)

2003 quote: Tracy is a line-drive hitter who rarely strikes out. He should be an average regular in the majors, one capable of batting .300 and hitting 15-20 homers per season.

Surprisingly, Tracy didn't get a lot of love despite the outstanding average in Double-A. He's showed better power than expected in the majors, but he's hit .300 just once in four years.


60. Sean Burnett - LHP Pirates - Age 20 - ETA: May 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #70

BA: #25, BP: NR

13-4, 1.80 ERA, 118 H, 96/33 K/BB in 155 1/3 IP for Single-A Lynchburg

2003 quote: Burnett had some of the best numbers in the minors last season and now has a 2.38 ERA since being selected in the first round of the 2000 draft. Still, he's not an elite pitching prospect.

BA was very high on Burnett despite his lack of stuff. He probably wouldn't have justified their faith even if he didn't get hurt.


61. Jimmy Gobble - LHP Royals - Age 21 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #62, mid-2002 #41

BA: NR, BP: NR

5-7, 3.38 ERA, 71 H, 52/19 K/BB in 69 1/3 IP for Double-A Wichita

2003 quote: Gobble got in just a half season last year because of a groin injury and a minor shoulder problem. … He projects as a No. 3 starter in the majors.

BA had Gobble ranked 50th in 2002, but dropped him after he missed half of the season. Gobble has remained healthy since, but he was massive bust as a starter before seemingly finding his niche as a reliever.


62. Felix Pie - OF Cubs - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
Previous rankings: None

BA: #72, BP: NR

.321/.385/.569, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 47/21 K/BB, 17 SB in 218 AB for Rookie AZL Cubs
.125/.222/.250, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1/1/ K/BB, 0 SB in 8 AB for short-season Single-A Boise

2003 quote: Pie could be a star someday, but because he is four or five years away from the majors, fantasy leaguers shouldn't start drooling yet.

It looks like we're about to finally see whether this aggressive ranking pans out.


63. Kevin Youkilis - 3B Red Sox - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: None

BA: NR, BP: HM

.283/.433/.377, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 8/13 K/BB, 0 SB in 53 AB for Single-A Augusta
.295/.422/.388, 3 HR, 48 RBI, 37/49 K/BB, 0 SB in 268 AB for Single-A Sarasota
.344/.462/.500, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 18/31 K/BB, 5 SB in 160 AB for Double-A Trenton
.216/.341/.304, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 21/19 K/BB, 1 SB in 102 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)

2003 quote: With 166 walks in 676 career at-bats, Youkilis is one of the most intriguing prospects in the minors. … He doesn't have much home run power, but there's reason to think that he'll manage 30 doubles and 12 homers per season as a major leaguer.

One gamble that paid off. I still went a little too far in ranking him ahead of Hanley Ramirez in 2004.


64. Boof Bonser - RHP Giants - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #53, mid-2002 #68

BA: NR, BP: NR

8-6, 2.88 ERA, 89 H, 139/70 K/BB in 128 1/3 IP for Single-A San Jose
1-2, 5.55 ERA, 30 H, 22/14 K/BB in 24 1/3 IP for Double-A Shreveport

2003 quote: Obviously, control is a problem, but Bonser throws in the mid-90s and has a quality curve and changeup. He could emerge as a No. 2 starter if he tames his wild streak.

Bonser's stuff fell off before he was traded to Minnesota in the A.J. Pierzynski deal. He'll probably collect six to eight years of service time anyway, but he might belong in the bullpen.


65. Jonny Gomes - OF Devil Rays - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #60

BA: NR, BP: NR

.278/.432/.574, 30 HR, 72 RBI, 173/91 K/BB, 15 SB in 446 AB for Single-A Bakersfield

2003 quote: Scouts don't think much of him, but Gomes has been one of the best hitters in the minors since being selected in the 18th round of the 2001 draft.

Held back by poor management and a badly timed shoulder injury in 2006, Gomes could still end up justifying this ranking or he could find himself playing in Japan in a couple of years. I don't know what's going to happen.


66. Erik Bedard - LHP Orioles - Age 24 - ETA: July 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #56

BA: NR, BP: NR

6-3, 1.97 ERA, 43 H, 66/30 K/BB in 68 2/3 IP for Double-A Bowie
0-0, 13.50 ERA, 2 H, 1/0 K/BB in 2/3 IP for Baltimore

2003 quote: Even though he underwent Tommy John surgery in September, Bedard is Baltimore's No. 1 prospect and the only player in the system in the Top 100.

BP had the better approach with injured starters, but this one paid off for me.


67. Josh Karp - RHP Expos - Age 23 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #30

BA: #71, BP: NR

4-1, 1.59 ERA, 31 H, 43/11 K/BB in 45 1/3 IP for Single-A Brevard County
7-5, 3.84 ERA, 83 H, 69/34 K/BB in 86 2/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
0-5, 5.79 ERA, 31 H, 27/16 K/BB in 28 IP for Maryvale (AFL)

2003 quote: Karp, the sixth overall pick in 2001, had a strong pro debut in 2002, dominating Florida State League competition before looking solid in Double-A. … Karp has No. 3 starter written all over him.

One of the biggest draft busts of the decade, Karp never had a decent season after 2002. He's been out of baseball since 2005.



68. James Loney - 1B Dodgers - Age 18 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #34, BP: HM

.371/.457/.624, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 18/25 K/BB, 5 SB in 170 AB for Rookie Great Falls
.299/.356/.388, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 10/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 67 AB for Single-A Vero Beach

2003 quote: Loney was the Dodgers' first-round pick in 2002. Many teams liked him more as a pitcher, but the Dodgers used him at first base and the results were eye catching. …Since he's got a great glove in addition to his bat, he should already be considered one of the top first base prospects in baseball.

BA ranked him 34th even though he suffered a broken wrist towards the end of the season. The wrist problems ended up lingering, but he overcame them eventually and seems set to turn in an excellent career.


69. Drew Henson - 3B Yankees - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #40, mid-2001 #17, 2002 #15, mid-2002 #17

BA: NR, BP: NR

.240/.301/.435, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 151/37 K/BB, 2 SB in 471 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 1 AB for New York (AL)
.211/.304/.401, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 40/19 K/BB, 1 SB in 147 AB for Maryvale (AFL)

2003 quote: However, the positives still outweigh the negatives at this point. Henson has ability and intelligence, and even though the NFL has to be in the back of his mind, he seems dedicated to baseball.

Henson gave up on baseball after hitting .234/.291/.412 in Triple-A in 2003. If the Yankees hadn't been so aggressive with him -- he had his first extended trial in Triple-A during his age-21 season -- things might have turned out differently.


70. Jeremy Bonderman - RHP Tigers - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None

BA: #20, BP: HM

9-8, 3.61 ERA, 129 H, 160/55 K/BB in 144 2/3 IP for Single-A Modesto
0-1, 6.00 ERA, 11 H, 10/4 K/BB in 12 IP for Single-A Lakeland

2003 quote: He has tons of potential, but his control is rather shaky and he's a pretty big injury risk. Still, he has the 93-mph fastball, slider and changeup to develop into another Weaver-type ace for Detroit.

Yeah, I should have him a lot closer to where BA did, even if he has been the game's most overrated pitcher up to this point in his career (56-62, 4.78 ERA).


71. Clint Nageotte - RHP Mariners - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None

BA: #76, BP: #35

9-6, 4.54 ERA, 153 H, 214/68 K/BB in 164 2/3 IP for Single-A San Bernadino
1-0, 4.00 ERA, 10 H, 10/2 K/BB in 9 IP for Peoria (AFL)

2003 quote: The 1999 fifth-round pick doesn't throw particularly hard, usually keeping his fastball in the low-90s, but his slider is already a proven out pitch, one that should hold up at higher levels.

Nageotte got hurt after a nice season in Double-A in 2003 and was essentially done as a promising pitcher. He's 1-6 with a 7.78 ERA and a 26/30 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 major league innings.


72. Brandon Claussen - LHP Yankees - Age 23 - ERA: July 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #63, mid-2002 #58

BA: NR, BP: NR

2-8, 3.28 ERA, 85 H, 73/46 K/BB in 93 1/3 IP for Triple-A Columbus

2003 quote: Claussen underwent Tommy John surgery last June, so he won't be pitching in the minors for the first two or three months of 2003. Before getting hurt, Claussen had a 90-93 mph fastball and a quality slider.

Another case of me being too aggressive with an injured pitcher.


73. Mike Jones - RHP Brewers - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: 2002 #90, mid-2002 #59

BA: #56, BP: NR

7-7, 3.12 ERA, 135 H, 132/62 K/BB in 138 2/3 IP for Single-A Beloit

2003 quote: Jones throws in the mid-90s and could get more strikeouts as his secondary pitches develop. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, he's three years away from the majors.

Arm problems have limited Jones to 110 innings in four seasons. It's doubtful he'll develop now.


74. Franklyn German - RHP Tigers - Age 23 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: None

BA: #42, BP: NR

1-1, 16 Sv, 3.05 ERA, 28 H, 59/27 K/BB in 41 1/3 IP for Double-A Midland
1-1, 13 Sv, 1.59 ERA, 15 H, 31/7 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP for Triple-A Toledo
0-0, 1 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 6/2 K/BB in 6 2/3 IP for Detroit

2003 quote: It's not any kind of a secret that the Tigers view German as their closer of the near future. … His split-fingered fastball is turning into a legitimate out pitch.

German's command failed to improve with age. He has a 99/106 K/BB ratio in 137 innings as a major leaguer.


75. Andy Marte - 3B Braves - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #40, BP: NR

.281/.339/.492, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 114/41 K/BB, 2 SB in 488 AB for Single-A Macon

2003 quote: If Marte, a native of the Dominican Republic, is the age he says he is, then he's another one of Atlanta's tremendous prospects.

Marte's age never came into question. I had him 16th and BA placed him 11th on the 2004 list.


76. Seung Song - RHP Expos - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #49, 2002 #61, mid-2002 #69

BA: NR, BP: NR

7-7, 4.39 ERA, 106 H, 116/37 K/BB in 108 2/3 IP for Double-A Trenton
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 5/0 K/BB in 5 IP for Double-A Harrisburg

2003 quote: He's not a future ace, but I like his upside better than Josh Karp's.

After 3 ½ seasons of striking out at least a batter an inning, Song's K rate fell well off in 2003 and his stock was already well down by the time he broke his arm in 2004. He decided to try his luck in Asia after going 5-10 with a 5.37 ERA for Double-A Wichita in 2006.


77. Lyle Overbay - 1B Diamondbacks - Age 26 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #81

BA: #65, BP: NR

.343/.396/.528, 19 HR, 109 RBI, 86/42 K/BB, 0 SB in 525 AB for Triple-A Tucson
.100/.100/.100, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 10 AB for Arizona

2003 quote: If he gets 500 at-bats next season, he should hit .300 with 20 homers.

The Diamondbacks blew it with Overbay in 2003 and sent him to the Brewers in the Richie Sexson deal that winter. He's hit .300 in two of the subsequent four seasons, but he's still reached 20 homers and 90 RBI just once.


78. Travis Hafner - 1B Indians - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #114

BA: #46, BP: #20

.342/.463/.559, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 76/79 K/BB, 2 SB in 401 AB for Triple-A Oklahoma
.242/.329/.387, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 15/8 K/BB, 0 SB in 62 AB for Texas

2003 quote: He's traveled a long road to get there, but Hafner is finally getting taken seriously as a prospect. He entered last season with a minor league OPS of 907 in five years, but because he's not very good defensively and he's usually been too old for his leagues, the Rangers weren't including him in their plans.

I thought they seemed liked perfectly good reasons to not go overboard with Hafner's ranking. Hafner had 41 homers, one triple and 47 doubles in 724 at-bats in his last two years in the minors. Now, that's quite good, but it's hardly overwhelming and he was both old for his leagues and playing in very good situations for hitters. Jason Botts had 49 homers, 10 triples and 56 doubles in 991 at-bats for the same two clubs at the same ages. Hafner did have superior on-base skills, so it looked like he'd a nice solution in the middle of Cleveland's lineup for a few years when they stole him for Einar Diaz. He certainly never figured to have any 40-homer seasons. He had better slugging percentages each season from 2004-06 than he did at any level in the minors.


79. Billy Traber - LHP Indians - Age 23 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #96, mid-2002 #85

BA: NR, BP: NR

13-2, 2.76 ERA, 99 H, 82/20 K/BB in 107 2/3 IP for Double-A Akron
4-3, 3.29 ERA, 58 H, 33/12 K/BB in 54 2/3 IP for Triple-A Buffalo

2003 quote: Traber, a 2000 first-round pick, rarely touches 90 mph with his fastball, but he has the breaking stuff to become a solid No. 3 starter.

Traber underwent Tommy John surgery after going 6-9 with a 5.24 ERA for the Indians in 2003 and never returned at peak form, though he did pitch in the majors for the Nationals each of the last two years. He'll be in Yankees camp this spring.


80. Jason Arnold - RHP Blue Jays - Age 23 - ETA: Sept. 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #84

BA: #97, BP: #25

7-1, 2.48 ERA, 64 H, 83/22 K/BB in 80 IP for Single-A Tampa
1-2, 4.15 ERA, 17 H, 18/5 K/BB in 17 1/3 IP for Double-A Norwich
5-1, 2.33 ERA, 42 H, 53/24 K/BB in 58 IP for Double-A Midland

2003 quote: Arnold throws in the low-90s and has the slider and changeup to become a No. 3 starter in the majors.

Arnold's 228/68 K/BB ratio in his first 1 ½ pro seasons made him a stathead favorite, but his velocity slipped and he never got over the Triple-A hump.


81. Jeff Mathis - C Angels - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #94

BA: #48, BP: NR

.287/.346/.444, 10 HR, 73 RBI, 75/40 K/BB, 7 SB in 491 AB for Single-A Cedar Rapids

2003 quote: Mathis was one of the top hitters in the Midwest League in the early going, but he ended up fading as last season progressed.

Mathis ranked 17th on my list and 22nd on BP's in 2004. His stock has gone downhill every year since, but he's still going to have a long career, even if it's just as a backup.


82. Bobby Crosby - SS Athletics - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #93

BA: NR, BP: NR

.307/.393/.404, 2 HR, 38 RBI, 43/33 K/BB, 5 SB in 280 AB for Single-A Modesto
.281/.335/.443, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 41/19 K/BB, 9 SB in 228 AB for Double-A Midland
.250/.368/.438, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 9/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 32 AB for Phoenix (AFL)

2003 quote: Crosby is the top prospect among Oakland's outstanding group of middle infielders. The 2001 first-round pick isn't an elite talent, but he's an adequate defensive shortstop with on-base skills and improving power.

Also included in that group of outstanding middle infielders were Esteban German, Freddie Bynum and Adam Morrissey. Not so impressive now.


83. Kenny Baugh - RHP Tigers - Age 24 - ETA: August 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #24, mid-2002 #52

BA: NR, BP: NR

2003 quote: Baugh missed 2002 with a torn labrum.

That's basically all you need to know. Baugh, the 11th overall pick in the 2001 draft, came back to post solid numbers in the minors with the Tigers, but his stuff was no longer major league quality. He went 7-9 with an 8.19 ERA for Triple-A Albuqerque last season.


84. David Wright - 3B Mets - Age 20 - ETA 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #75, BP: HM

.266/.367/.401, 11 HR, 93 RBI, 114/76 K/BB, 21 SB in 496 AB for Single-A Capital City

2003 quote: Wright has solid regular written all over him. ... In a best-case scenario, he will turn into Robin Ventura, though a Travis Fryman comparison may be more appropriate.

Ventura is one of the game's most underrated players of the last 20 years. Still, that clearly wasn't the best-case scenario.


85. Grady Sizemore - OF Indians - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #88, mid-2002 #108

BA: NR, BP: NR

.258/.351/.348, 0 HR, 26 RBI, 41/36 K/BB, 9 SB in 256 AB for Single-A Brevard County
.343/.451/.483, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 30/33 K/BB, 14 SB in 172 AB for Single-A Kinston

2003 quote: Sizemore was a borderline top-100 prospect before getting shipped to the Indians in the Bartolo Colon deal, and he seemed to blossom after joining the Cleveland organization. He hasn't developed any power yet, but he projects as a .300-15 HR- 30 SB center fielder.

Oddly, BA was late to the party on Sizemore, not including him in their 2002 list either. They had him ninth in 2004, while I placed him 20th.


86. Ryan Madson - RHP Phillies - Age 22 - ETA: June 2004
Previous rankings: None

BA: NR, BP: NR

16-4, 3.20 ERA, 150 H, 132/52 K/BB in 171 1/3 IP for Double-A Reading

2003 quote: Madson baffled Eastern League hitters with his outstanding changeup in 2002. The 1998 ninth-round pick has a low-90s fastball and a quality curveball, but it's the changeup that makes him a potential starting pitcher for the Phillies.

Madson bombed as a starter in 2006, but he's been a very good setup man when healthy. This was right about where he should have been.


87. Todd Wellemeyer - RHP Cubs - Age 24 - ETA: May 2004
Previous rankings: None

BA: NR, BP: NR

2-4, 3.79 ERA, 63 H, 87/19 K/BB in 73 2/3 IP for Single-A Daytona
3-3, 4.70 ERA, 33 H, 37/18 K/BB in 46 IP for Double-A West Tenn
1-2, 3.12 ERA, 24 H, 40/12 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP for Mesa (AFL)

2003 quote: Wellemeyer has become one of my favorite prospects. The 2000 fourth-round pick throws 93-94 mph, has an excellent changeup and his curveball is an improving third pitch.

Wellemeyer never really improved his command with his age, though he did manage to post a 3.65 ERA in first 11 major league starts with the Cardinals last season. He might be better off all along as a starter.


88. Brad Nelson - 1B Brewers - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #23, BP: NR

.297/.353/.520, 17 HR, 99 RBI, 86/34 K/BB, 4 SB in 417 AB for Single-A Beloit
.255/.333/.451, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 28/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 102 AB for Single-A High Desert

2003 quote: The Brewers certainly aren't hurting for first baseman. Nelson might get overshadowed by Prince Fielder, but he has some of the best power potential in the minor leagues.

Nelson hit just two homers in 310 at-bats after returning from a broken hamate bone in 2003 and hasn't had a big power season since. The Brewers put him back on their 40-man roster after he hit .263/.317/.470 with 20 homers in 411 at-bats for Triple-A Nashville last season, but he's a long shot to ever make an impact.


89. Jose Castillo - SS Pirates - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None

BA: #86, BP: NR

.300/.373/.453, 16 HR, 81 RBI, 95/49 K/BB, 27 SB in 503 AB for Single-A Lynchburg

2003 quote: Improved strike-zone judgment has Castillo looking like a real prospect. His .373 OBP last season was a dramatic increase over his .318 career total entering the year.

It didn't last. Castillo's OBP fell off to .339 in Double-A in 2003, and he never recovered from the Pirates' misguided decision to rush him to the majors to begin 2004. He's a career .256/.297/.380 hitter in 1,492 at-bats

[Hache Man]

2003 Prospects Review (Pt. 2)

90. Brad Hawpe - 1B Rockies - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #86

BA: NR, BP: HM

.347/.447/.587, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 84/81 K/BB, 1 SB in 450 AB for Single-A Salem

2003 quote: Hawpe, an 11th-round pick out of LSU in 2000, was ready for Double-A at midseason, but the Rockies allowed him to pile up numbers for Salem all season long. Obviously, with Todd Helton in front of him, the Rockies aren't going to rush Hawpe, but that shouldn't be used as a reason to hold him back.

One of my biggest victories. BA had Hawpe 10th in a Rockies system that placed just two prospects in their top 100. Their No. 3 that year was Rene Reyes.


91. Prince Fielder - 1B Brewers - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
Previous rankings: None

BA: #78, BP: HM

.390/.531/.678, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 27/37 K/BB, 3 SB in 146 AB for Rookie Ogden
.241/.320/.384, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 27/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 112 AB for Single-A Beloit

2003 quote: Cecil's son has his father's body, which scared off more than a few teams. However, he also has outstanding power, and he showed that he was anything but a one-dimensional hitter in Rookie ball last season. If Prince can keep his weight under control, he should a fantastic major league hitter.

So far, so good. Fielder ranked fifth on my list and 10th on BA's in 2004.


92. Jason Young - RHP Rockies - Age 23 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #100

BA: NR, BP: NR

7-4, 2.64 ERA, 71 H, 76/30 K/BB in 88 2/3 IP for Double-A Carolina
6-5, 4.97 ERA, 87 H, 74/38 K/BB in 79 2/3 IP for Triple-A Colorado Springs

2003 quote: Young has a 91-94 mph fastball with good movement. His other pitches need work, so he's not ready for the majors just yet. Coors Field could destroy him, but until he gets there, he's a quality prospect, probably No. 3-starter material.

BA's No. 4 Rockies prospect. Young went 0-3 with a 9.71 ERA in five starts and five relief appearances between 2003 and 2004. After an awful year in Triple-A in 2005, he gave up.


93. Danny Haren - RHP Cardinals - Age 22 - ETA: July 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #97

BA: NR, BP: NR

7-3, 1.95 ERA, 89 H, 89/12 K/BB in 101 2/3 IP for Single-A Peoria
3-6, 3.62 ERA, 90 H, 82/19 K/BB in 92 IP for Single-A Potomac

2003 quote: Haren doesn't quite have Jim Journell's upside, but for an A ball pitcher, he's a particularly good bet to establish himself as a No. 3 or a No. 4 starter.

BA had Haren ranked above Journell, but they didn't put any Cardinals in their top 100 in 2003.


94. Ben Kozlowski - LHP Rangers - Age 22 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: None

BA: #80, BP: NR

0-1, 4.50 ERA, 4 H, 3/3 K/BB in 4 IP for Single-A Myrtle Beach
4-4, 2.05 ERA, 63 H, 76/25 K/BB in 79 IP for Single-A Charlotte
4-2, 1.90 ERA, 28 H, 41/28 K/BB in 52 IP for Double-A Tulsa
0-0, 6.30 ERA, 11 H, 6/11 K/BB in 10 IP for Texas

2003 quote: Kozlowski has good stuff for a lefty (low-90s fastball, plus curve) and should be a No. 3 starter if he can avoid injury.

Kozlowski has been only moderately successful since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2004. He still has a chance of putting together a career as a reliever, but that's about it.


95. Gabe Gross - OF Blue Jays - Age 23 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #72, mid-2002 #95

BA: NR, BP: NR

.233/.333/.380, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 71/43 K/BB, 8 SB in 403 AB for Double-A Tennessee
.281/.352/.465, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 24/12 K/BB, 5 SB in 114 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL)

2003 quote: Gross doesn't look to have as much upside as he did a year ago, but I still see him becoming a solid everyday right fielder.

Gross has fallen a little short of becoming a regular, though he's in the midst of what will likely be a long run as a part-time player.


96. Todd Linden - OF Giants - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #90

BA: #82, BP: HM

.314/.419/.482, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 101/61 K/BB, 9 SB in 392 AB for Double-A Shreveport
.250/.380/.380, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 35/20 K/BB, 2 SB in 100 AB for Triple-A Fresno
.269/.374/.429, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 30/16 K/BB, 4 SB in 119 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL)

2003 quote: Linden, a supplemental first-round selection in 2001, looks like he'll be an average regular at a corner outfield spot. The former LSU Tiger is a line-drive hitter with good on-base skills.

Linden did a lot more striking out and less walking while splitting the next four seasons between Triple-A Fresno and San Francisco. He's at .231/.303/.335 in 502 major league at-bats.


97. Joe Thurston - 2B Dodgers - Age 23 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #109

BA: NR, BP: #39

.334/.372/.506, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 60/25 K/BB, 22 SB in 587 AB for Triple-A Las Vegas
.462/.429/.538, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 13 AB for Los Angeles
.133/.200/.167, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 6/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 60 AB for Maryvale (AFL)

2003 quote: Thurston probably played a little over his head with Las Vegas last season, but he should be a decent starting second baseman in the majors.

Thurston never got a chance to become the Dodgers' starting second baseman, not that he deserved it after hitting .290/.345/.401 and .284/.356/.394 in Triple-A the following two years.


98. John Van Benschoten - RHP Pirates - Age 22 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None

BA: #24, BP: NR

11-4, 2.80 ERA, 119 H, 145/62 K/BB in 148 IP for Single-A Hickory

2003 quote: He could end up as an outstanding pitcher if he continues to develop like he has thus far. However, even though the Pirates are being careful with him, it wouldn't be any kind of surprise to see him suffer a major arm injury in one of the next two seasons.

Arm problems have doomed Van Benschoten. He likely would have been a fine pitcher had he remained healthy, but there was always that risk, and had the Pirates chosen to use him as a hitter, there's a good chance he'd be in the middle of their lineup right now.


99. Dustin Moseley - RHP Reds - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None

BA: NR, BP: NR

6-3, 2.74 ERA, 60 H, 80/21 K/BB in 88 2/3 IP for Single-A Stockton
5-6, 4.13 ERA, 91 H, 52/37 K/BB in 80 2/3 IP for Double-A Chattanooga

2003 quote: Because he's a very successful right-hander who usually tops out at about 90 mph, Moseley gets compared to Greg Maddux. … If figures to take time for Moseley to adapt to each new level, so even though he'll arrive in the majors in late 2004 or 2005, it will probably be 2006 or 2007 before he's ready to succeed.

Moseley did contribute last year, but he'll never justify this ranking. He's strictly middle-relief material.


100. Mike Gosling - LHP Diamondbacks- Age 22 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: None

BA: #59, BP: NR

14-5, 3.13 ERA, 149 H, 115/62 K/BB in 166 2/3 IP for Double-A El Paso

2003 quote: The 22-year-old has above average stuff for a left-hander, throwing in the low-90s and keeping hitters off balance with a big curveball. If his changeup improves, he'll be a quality No. 3 starter. Look for him to make his major league debut this season.

Gosling had ERAs approaching 6.00 in each of his three seasons at Triple-A Tucson. He's somehow managed a 4.79 mark in 92 innings as a major leaguer, but there's been nothing to suggest he'll be successful going forward.


Next 50

101. Colby Lewis - RHP Rangers - Age 23 - ETA: Now
102. Matt Belisle - RHP Braves - Age 22 - ETA: August 2004
103. Dave Kelton - 3B/1B Cubs - Age 23 - ETA: July 2004
104. Bobby Basham - RHP Reds - Age 23 - ETA: July 2003
105. John-Ford Griffin - OF Athletics - Age 23 - ETA: July 2004
106. Justin Wayne - RHP Marlins - Age 23 - ETA: May 2003
107. Chin-Feng Chen - 1B/OF Dodgers - Age 25 - ETA: Now
108. Mike Wood - RHP Athletics - Age 22 - ETA: May 2004
109. Mike Bynum - LHP Padres - Age 25 - ETA: Now
110. Rob Henkel - LHP Marlins - Age 24 - ETA: May 2004
111. Seth McClung - RHP Devil Rays - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
112. Joel Guzman - SS Dodgers - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
113. Brian Bullington - RHP Pirates - Age 22 - ETA: August 2004
114. Taylor Buchholz - RHP Phillies - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
115. Dave Krynzel - OF Brewers - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
116. Anthony Webster - OF White Sox - Age 19 - ETA: 2007
117. Adam Morrissey - 2B Athletics - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
118. Jason Lane - OF Astros - Age 26 - ETA: Now
119. Chase Utley - 3B Phillies - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
120. Clint Everts - RHP Expos - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
121. Esteban German - 2B Athletics - Age 25 - ETA: August 2003
122. John Rheinecker - LHP Athletics - Age 23 - ETA: August 2004
123. Henri Stanley - OF Astros - Age 25 - ETA: June 2004
124. Mark Phillips - LHP Padres - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
125. Tagg Bozied - 1B Padres - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
126. Jeremy Guthrie - RHP Indians - Age 23 - ETA: Sept. 2004
127. Zack Greinke - RHP Royals - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
128. Ty Howington - LHP Reds - Age 22 - ETA: August 2004
129. Pat Strange - RHP Mets - Age 22 - ETA: Sept. 2003
130. Omar Infante - SS/2B Tigers - Age 21 - ETA: June 2003
131. Miguel Olivo - C White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: Now
132. Jeff Francoeur - OF Braves - Age 19 - ETA: 2007
133. Eric Munson - 1B/3B Tigers - Age 25 - ETA: Now
134. Angel Berroa - SS Royals - Age 25 - ETA: Now
135. Justin Pope - RHP Cardinals - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
136. Wily Mo Pena - OF Reds - Age 21 - ETA: Now
137. Corwin Malone - LHP White Sox - Age 22 - ETA: Sept. 2003
138. Bubba Nelson - RHP Braves - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
139. Jayson Werth - OF/C Blue Jays - Age 23 - ETA: Now
140. Arnaldo Munoz - LHP White Sox- Age 20 - ETA: August 2003
141. Freddy Sanchez - 2B/SS Red Sox - Age 25 - ETA: Now
142. Jonathan Figueroa - LHP Dodgers - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
143. Dustin McGowan - RHP Blue Jays - Age 21 - ETA: 2006
144. Joe Torres - LHP Angels - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
145. Jake Gautreau - 2B Padres - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
146. Freddie Bynum - 2B/SS Athletics - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
147. Don Levinski - RHP Marlins - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
148. Antonio Perez - 2B/SS Devil Rays - Age 23 - ETA: July 2004
149. Julio DePaula - RHP Yankees - Age 23 - ETA: May 2004
150. Choo Freeman - OF Rockies - Age 23 - ETA: May 2004


In BA's top 100, not mine:

Hideki Matsui - BA: #8, BP: #2
Jose Conteras - BA: #6, BP: #5
Rafael Soriano - BA: #27, BP: NR

All three players were ineligible for my list. I've never ranked veteran imports, and Soriano had too much service time to qualify as a rookie in 2003. As I wrote in 2003 article, I would have placed Soriano 18th had he qualified.


Colby Lewis - BA: #32, BP: NR - RW: #101
Jonathan Figueroa - BA: #35, BP: NR - RW: #142
Dustin McGowan - BA: #36, BP: NR - RW: #143
Angel Guzman - BA: #47, BP: NR
Ervin Santana - BA: #51, BP: NR
Bryan Bullington - BA: #52, BP: NR - RW: #113
Zack Greinke - BA: #54, BP: NR - RW: #127
Bubba Nelson - BA: #58, BP: NR - RW: #138
Clint Everts - BA: #62, BP: NR - RW: #120
Bobby Basham - BA: #69, BP: N - RW: #104
Jeremy Guthrie - BA: #70, BP: NR - RW: #126
Chris Gruler - BA: #77, BP: NR
Chase Utley - BA: #81, BP: NR - RW: $119
Francisco Liriano - BA: #83, BP: NR
Mark Phillips - BA: #84, BP: NR - RW: #124
Laynce Nix - BA: #85, BP: NR
Wily Mo Pena - BA: #87, BP: NR - RW: #136
Taylor Buchholz - BA: #88, BP: NR - RW: #114
Don Levinski - BA: #89, BP: NR - RW: #147
Ben Hendrickson - BA: #90, BP: NR
Jayson Werth - BA: #94, BP: #38 - RW: #139
Jeff Francoeur - BA: #95, BP: NR - RW: #132
Mike Hinckley - BA: #96, BP: NR
Seth McClung - BA: #98, BP: NR - RW: #111
Edwin Jackson - BA: #99, BP: NR
Nic Jackson - BA: #100, BP: NR

Brendan Harris - BA: NR, BP: #18

Harris was the only player in BP's top 40 that didn't make either of the other two lists.

Included in BA's list but not mine were one legitimate superstar (Utley), another elite talent (Liriano) and a couple of other fairly clear misses on my part (McGowan, Santana, Greinke and Francoeur). I get points for shying away from Lewis, Figueroa, Nelson and Gruler, but my biggest win was placing Bullington 60 spots lower than BA, even though he had just been selected with the first pick in the 2002 draft. That probably doesn't make up for Utley, but then again, BA was guilty of underrating him in a big way, too.

Overall, I was a lot happier with how this list turned out than the one in 2002. The mistakes made with overvaluing injured pitchers have been learned from. I also think I would have done a little better then with a better grasp on league effects.