Home | About | Dispute Resolution | Contact
| |||||||
| Fantasy Sports Talk Play in fantasy leagues and share your fantasy sports talk here. Sponsored by SBGGlobal.com |
![]() |
| | Thread Tools | Search this Thread | Display Modes |
| | #71 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| AL Team-by-Team Notes Even though Kenny Rogers (blood clot) is now set to miss at least the first three months of the season, the Tigers are still planning to go with Chad Durbin as their fifth starter. While Wilfredo Ledezma would have been the more interesting choice for fantasy purposes, the Tigers were only considering Durbin and Andrew Miller when Rogers initially went on the DL. Miller went on to start the year at Single-A Lakeland, but there's a good chance the job will be his by mid-May. Durbin has a 6.14 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 337 1/3 innings as a major leaguer. He's a better pitcher now than he was when he came up with the Royals, but he still shouldn't be more than an adequate stopgap. There's little reason to own him in AL-only leagues. Miller, on the other hand, seems likely to have considerable value before long. He might even be an option in mixed leagues once he gets the call. American League Notes Baltimore - So the Twins were 4-for-4 against him and Alberto Castillo last week. Big deal. Tweaking Daniel Cabrera's delivery in an effort to cut down on the stolen bases he allows has the potential to be disastrous. Maybe Leo Mazzone could make it work, but the 25-year-old Cabrera is so close to finally becoming a very good pitcher that it's not worth trying. If Cabrera does the big things well, it's not going to matter very much that he struggles with the little things. The Orioles haven't been quick to place Ramon Hernandez (oblique) on the DL, but it still appears likely to happen. Such a move would probably get Jon Knott called up. He belongs on the roster anyway. Paul Bako would continue to get most of the time behind the plate, but there's just not much he can do to help fantasy teams. Jay Payton (hamstring) is eligible to come off the DL on Wednesday. He might need another week or so after that, but when he does return, he could send Freddie Bynum to Triple-A. Kevin Millar stands to lose at-bats after Payton is activated. Boston - Daisuke Matsuzaka's debut against the Royals was suitably impressive, though it's doubtful that's the best we'll see him all year. His fastball command hasn't been very good in his last three outings, including his final two of the spring, but his offspeed stuff gives him such a huge advantage over hitters that haven't seen him before that it hasn't mattered much. He'll get better, and the league will get better at hitting him. The end result should be a showing that ranks him among the AL's five or 10 best pitchers. Julian Tavarez isn't incapable of being an adequate fifth starter, but his poor control is a real problem right now and the Red Sox need to give serious thought to calling up Devern Hansack, who followed up an impressive spring by allowing one run in 5 2/3 innings and striking out 10 in his first start for Pawtucket. If it happens, Hansack would be worth adding in AL-only leagues. Chicago - Scott Podsednik has started three straight after sitting out the opener, going 4-for-11 with three runs scored. He even played over Pablo Ozuna against left-hander Jeremy Sowers. Still, there's reason for pessimism here. Getting caught by Victor Martinez on two of his three steals attempts against the Indians makes it more obvious than ever that he's lost a step, and it's not like he has a lot to offer a team when he's not the fastest man on the field. Podsednik's defense has never been as good as his speed would suggest, and he finished last year with a .261/.330/.353 line even though he got to sit against plenty of tough lefties. The White Sox will have to consider putting Darin Erstad in left and Brian Anderson in center if Podsednik slumps. As suspected, it doesn't look like anything will materialize from manager Ozzie Guillen's statement that someone besides Bobby Jenks could close. Jenks has a win and a save while throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings so far and already seems well on his way to another 35- or 40-save season. Mark Buehrle is likely to pitch Wednesday despite a bruised left forearm, but if not, Nick Masset could go in his place. Cleveland - The strained quad suffered by Victor Martinez in Friday's frigid conditions could put him on the disabled list on Sunday. The Indians would turn to Kelly Shoppach as their starting catcher and call up Mike Rose to serve as the backup. Shoppach won't hit for average, but he could be good for a couple of homers while Martinez is out. He'll also help the Indians control the running game. Casey Blake figures to replace Martinez in the cleanup spot, with David Dellucci, Jhonny Peralta and Josh Barfield also moving up in the lineup. Grady Sizemore followed up a spring in which he hit .115 with three extra-base hits in 61 at-bats by delivering three homers in his first three games. Batting leadoff behind Andy Marte (and now Shoppach) will hurt him when it comes to RBI, but he's easily a top-10 fantasy outfielder. I have him projected to lead the majors in runs scored ahead of Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes. Kansas City - Overshadowed by Matsuzaka's debut was Zack Greinke's fine performance in the same game. Though he had the leadoff man on against him six times in seven innings, he allowed just one earned run, and he struck out David Ortiz three times. If he pitched in the NL or even on a better AL team, he'd be an option in shallow mixed leagues right now. As is, he might have to settle for being just a solid AL-only starter. It's conceivable that the Royals could send Alex Gordon to Triple-A Omaha if he struggles throughout April. Still, it's rather early to be worrying about that. Gordon is going to hit, probably soon. His defense remains a work in progress, but it's something the Royals are willing to live with. On the off chance that Gordon does play his way back to the minors, Esteban German should become the Royals' third baseman. It wouldn't make sense to move Mark Teahen back when he'd probably return to right field in 2008. David Riske will close for another week while Octavio Dotel recovers from a strained oblique. Los Angeles - I wasn't expecting much from Bartolo Colon as he tries to recover from a rotator cuff tear, but his rehab has gone exceedingly well. He threw in the low-90s regularly and touched 94 mph in his rehab start on Thursday. I still think it'd be a mistake to expect greatness, but maybe he'll have some value in shallow mixed leagues in any case. The Angels could get Shea Hillenbrand (groin) back on Sunday, though they shouldn't be in any hurry at all. They're a better defensive team with Reggie Willits in a corner and either Vladimir Guerrero or Garret Anderson DHing, and Willits' on-base ability helps out in an area in which the entire lineup is lacking. Jered Weaver (biceps) will make one more rehab start before facing the Red Sox on April 16. Minnesota - Nick Punto was a capable regular for the Twins last year because he cut way back on the strikeouts. However, with so little power and history of not hitting for average, his margin for error is very slim, especially since he's playing third base rather than a middle infield spot. Odds are that Punto will disappoint this year, and the Twins may be forced to go outside of the organization for an alternative come July. Don't be surprised if Jason Bartlett overtakes him as the No. 2 hitter before then. Rondell White is day-to-day with a strained right calf. Jason Tyner filled in Saturday and would continue to do so, though the Twins could also use Jason Kubel in left field and Jeff Cirillo at DH. New York - The Yankees' starting pitching was dreadful in the first four games, and we haven't even seen fifth starter Darrell Rasner yet. Fortunately, Chien-Ming Wang may be less than two weeks away. Mike Mussina's velocity will improve this month, just like it has in recent years, and he should be fine. I don't expect quite as much from Andy Pettitte, but the offense will get him to 15 wins if his elbow holds up for another 200 innings, making him a $13 pitcher in AL-only leagues. Kei Igawa worries me. He should have the advantage over AL hitters in his introduction to the league, but he's just not throwing enough strikes. Carl Pavano has yet to show anything that suggests he'll be worth more than a couple of bucks this year. Even if Phil Hughes progresses as hoped or Roger Clemens signs on, the Yankees may need to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline. The Yankees are getting Johnny Damon (calf) back in the starting lineup on Sunday, but it looks like Hideki Matsui (hamstring) could miss a week or two. Melky Cabrera has yet to resemble the productive rookie he was last year, so it's a costly loss. If Matsui is forced to the DL, the Yankees might opt to give Kevin Thompson starts over Cabrera. Oakland - Travis Buck made the A's after all, but with the club getting favorable reports back on Dan Johnson (hip) and Mark Kotsay (back), he may not be up for good. Johnson might be back in about a month, and Kotsay is hoping to return in early June. Either could push Buck back to the minors, depending on how the rookie performs. If Buck proves he's ready now, the A's probably wouldn't be in any hurry to go back to Johnson at first base. Buck isn't going to be good for many homers or steals, leaving him with little short-term upside in AL-only leagues. Still, he is worth using while playing against right-handers. Todd Walker was also kept, bumping Antonio Perez off the roster. It seems unlikely there will be much for Walker to do unless Buck slumps. As is, he's just a backup at first and second. It will take another injury to make him worth using in AL-only leagues. Bobby Crosby hopes to return to shortstop on Sunday after missing Saturday's game with back spasms. Seattle - Going from Jeremy Reed to former Giant Jason Ellison off the bench is a downgrade both offensively and defensively, but since Reed was barely going to play while everyone was healthy, it makes sense to have him in Triple-A and Ellison acting as the backup in center field, especially since the Mariners seem willing to use Ben Broussard in the corners. Plus, in former top prospect Travis Blackley, the club only had to surrender a long shot to acquire him last weekend. It'd be bad news for the Mariners if Ellison plays enough to amass any fantasy value. Julio Mateo already showed last week why he may be the AL's top candidate for vulture wins. As a flyball pitcher, he'll likely help in WHIP even if his ERA isn't very good, and since he should win 6-8 games, he's worth owning in AL-only leagues. Tampa Bay - I've been more impressed by the hot starts from B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes than the even better one experienced by Akinori Iwamura to date. Upton seems poised to seize the full-time job at second base and steal 30 bases, making him a worthy addition in shallow mixed leagues. Dukes doesn't have quite that much upside, but it looks like he's going to get a lot of playing time, perhaps making Jonny Gomes the odd man out. Iwamura has displayed a disciplined approach and the ability to go the other way. Still, I don't think the power is going to be there in abundance, and it's going to be difficult for him to rack up strong run and RBI numbers while batting in the bottom half of the lineup. He'll surely be of help in AL-only leagues, but he's not worth using in shallow mixed leagues right now. If Jorge Cantu wants out after getting demoted by the Rays, he's going to have to smack around Triple-A pitching for a month or two. He currently has little trade value, as evidenced by the Rays' failures in their attempts to move him in the offseason. Cantu is likely to get a starting job somewhere by June or July, though he may not be a second baseman when it happens. He'd make more sense at third or maybe even first. Anthony Reyes got the Rays' first save opportunity and should get most of the chances to pitch the ninth as long as he remains successful. Brian Stokes appears to be second in line for save opps at the moment. Texas - The Rangers are having Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson and Nelson Cruz share time between two spots while waiting for someone to separate himself. Sosa failed to impress in his first three regular-season games, collecting his lone RBI on a check-swing that he just wasn't able to pull back. He did homer Saturday off J.C. Romero, a pitcher the Red Sox never should have had in to face him. Sosa is probably going to continue to get a few more at-bats than Wilkerson and Cruz as he's given a chance to prove he has something left. Of course, he's also the one member of the group that could potentially be released by June 1. Robinson Tejeda's strong outing against the Red Sox probably wasn't a sign of things to come. He's walked more than a batter every other inning as a major leaguer, and his flyball tendencies will lead to homers at Rangers Ballpark, especially once it warms up. He'd be a sleeper in another stadium, but his upside is quite limited in Texas. Eric Gagne was able to get through back-to-back appearances on Friday and Saturday and is scheduled to make one more trip to the mound for Double-A Frisco on Tuesday before being activated Friday. It's likely that he'll be eased into the closer's role after returning, so Akinori Otsuka will still be worth using in mixed leagues. Toronto - It's difficult to get excited about any of the final three members of the Toronto rotation. Gustavo Chacin isn't keeping as many batters off balance with his delivery as he did initially and has now given up 22 homers in 93 1/3 innings since the start of last year. Tomo Ohka, the best bet of the group to win 13-14 games, may be worth using in 4x4 leagues. However, there's little reason to think he'll do better than a 4.50-4.70 ERA in his return to the American League. Josh Towers shouldn't even be that good. I see Casey Janssen as a better sleeper than any of them. If the Jays keep using Janssen for multiple innings at a time out of the pen, it won't be tough to stretch him out come May or June. Troy Glaus might miss some time with a possible Achilles' tendon strain suffered Saturday. Jason Smith will start at third base for as long as he's out. Of the Jays' big hitters, Glaus is the one the team can least afford to lose, simply because Adam Lind isn't an option to replace him. |
| | |
| | #72 | ||
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| NL Team-by-Team Notes Unlike Jose Capellan, James Loney can't be blamed for wanting a trade. He's done everything he can to prove he belongs, even shining in his 102 at-bats in the majors last season. The Dodgers will eventually have a spot for him, whether it's in left field over Luis Gonzalez or at first base because of an injury to Nomar Garciaparra, so they'd be foolish to trade him unless it'd land them a big upgrade. The Red Sox would almost certainly surrender Mike Lowell for him, but that's not enough. I would hope the Rays have already offered up Jorge Cantu along with a quality prospect for the slick-fielding first baseman. Still, odds are the Dodgers will just wait and see what happens. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks National League notes Arizona - Miguel Montero got his third start on Sunday, versus four so far for Opening Day catcher Chris Snyder. The guess here is that Montero will win out eventually and finish with 60-80 more at-bats than Snyder this year. Still, as evenly as they're splitting time, it doesn't look like either will be a strong contributor within the first couple of months. Montero is the one of the pair more likely to go on a tear offensively. Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings both impressed in their first starts, though since they came against the Nationals, only so much can be read into the performances. The two are vying to remain in the rotation following Randy Johnson's much anticipated return on April 19. Owings is the more intriguing pitcher from a fantasy standpoint, but he's at a disadvantage right now. Since Gonzalez is out of options, he'll likely keep the spot with another successful outing this week. With the Diamondbacks having home series against the Reds and Rockies this week, Scott Hairston is a solid play even in shallow mixed leagues. Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is at least 7-10 days away. eog.com Atlanta - Mike Hampton's setback with his elbow on Sunday suggests there's little chance of him coming off the DL before the beginning of June. The Braves would probably be happy just to get him back at full strength during the season half of the season. Fortunately, Lance Cormier and Kyle Davies both pitched as well as anyone could have hoped during spring training. Davies followed that up with a fine effort Sunday against the Mets, and Cormier (triceps) should be back from the DL within two weeks to reclaim the rotation spot he earned last month. Davies would be worth using in NL-only leagues if something went wrong with Cormier's rehab. As is, it appears likely that he'll return to Triple-A before the end of the month. Craig Wilson's ugly end to spring training has carried over into the regular season, but since Scott Thorman also hasn't done much yet, the Braves aren't going to have to reevaluate the platoon at first base. NL-only leaguers will want to be patient with Wilson. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football* - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice Chicago - Rich Hill and Ted Lilly both showed why they need to be owned in mixed leagues with their performances in week one. Hill gave up just one hit in seven innings, though it was a solo homer. He will have trouble with home runs, making it difficult for him to post an ERA much under 4.00. However, his strikeout rate and WHIP should make up for it. Lilly has a real chance of beating him in ERA thanks to the league switch. The problem there is that he's a poor bet to last 200 innings. Still, he's a nice choice when healthy. Wade Miller wasn't so successful in his debut Sunday, giving up six runs in four innings against the Brewers. He fanned 17 in 20 1/3 innings this spring, but he couldn't strike out one batter yesterday. With shoulder problems robbing him of his best stuff, he's probably not going to contribute in NL-only leagues. The Cubs might be ready to turn to Mark Prior or Angel Guzman by May 1. Jacque Jones' slow start got him sat down against a left-hander on Sunday. The Cubs aren't going to shove him into a platoon role yet, but if he continues to slump, Ryan Theriot might see more time over him versus southpaws. The Player's Paradise Cincinnati - In the giving-credit-where-credit-is-due department, Reds manager Jerry Narron has so far done some very good things with his lineup. Not only was hitting Adam Dunn second against righties a smart move, but the way he's switching Edwin Encarnacion and Ken Griffey Jr. in the fourth and fifth spots depending on matchups also makes sense. The only change I'd like to see is for Encarnacion to bat third and Brandon Phillips go into the fifth spot against righties. Even during his breakthrough season, Phillips had just a .324 OBP, and his stolen bases could be of more use in front of the bottom of the lineup. Encarnacion might already be the Reds' best player. David Weathers seems poised to get 80-90 percent of the Reds' save chances, with Mike Stanton or another southpaw getting the call on occasions in which the opposing team is due to send up left-handed hitters in the ninth. Surprisingly, Kirk Saarloos, not Todd Coffey, seems to be the top right-handed setup man right now. Coffey still looks like the best bet of anyone currently in the pen to eventually seize the job from Weathers. However, Eddie Guardado (elbow) is at least as likely to end the year as the Reds' closer. Colorado - That the Rockies have already given Steve Finley two starts in center field has to be discouraging for Willy Taveras owners. Fortunately, Finley's corpse has done nothing with them, going 1-for-11. Taveras is similarly off to a poor start, but he's already stolen two bases despite reaching safely just three times. Taveras shouldn't ever have to worry about losing his starting job to Finley, but it'd still be nice to see him get hot and show the Rockies he should be in the lineup six times per week. It'd definitely make him a better play in mixed leagues. The Colorado rotation is off to a fantastic start, with Rodrigo Lopez and Jason Hirsh performing especially well in their debuts for the team. Both could defy expectations early on, especially with the cold weather likely to amplify the humidor effect at Coors Field. Still, there's just not much fantasy upside with either. Jeff Francis and maybe Aaron Cook are the Rockies starters worth considering in NL-only leagues. Florida - After two sloppy appearances to start the year, Jorge Julio didn't receive a chance to blow Sunday's game, getting pulled in favor of Lee Gardner after loading the bases in the ninth. The Marlins want Julio to be their closer, but they might want to let him pitch in other situations until he works through his current struggles. Julio is a below average reliever for sure, but he's not this dreadful. Henry Owens appears to be next in line for saves, though Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom will be in the picture. Also, Taylor Tankersley (shoulder) should return before the end of the week. Julio is worth holding on to in practically every league. Owens needs be picked up. Jeremy Hermida (knee) sure does take his time recovering from injuries. He's set to miss another three or four weeks with his bruised knee, forcing the Marlins to stick with a right-field platoon of Joe Borchard and Cody Ross longer than expected. Hanley Ramirez's hamstring injury apparently was something of a false alarm. He should be back in the lineup on Tuesday. Josh Willingham (back) and Miguel Olivo (thumb) are safe to have active this week. Houston - The Astros have no shortage of problems, but it's Brad Lidge's struggles getting most of the attention. The club hasn't been able to hand him another lead since he blew a save on Opening Day, and when he did finally make his second appearance in a lost cause on Sunday, he was lit up by the Cardinals. Lidge will probably get the next save chance the Astros generate, but Dan Wheeler is at least as good of a bet to be the team's closer come May 1. Lidge can't be given up on by either the Astros or his fantasy owners, but it's clear that he's not even close to being a quality reliever right now. Fortunately, it doesn't look like the bizarre decision to bat Adam Everett second on Opening Day was a sign of things to come. Morgan Ensberg and Chris Burke have both gotten a couple of starts there since, and though they haven't done much with them, they're clearly superior options. Phil Garner is hoping someone gets hot so that he can stick him there full-time. Burke might have the best chance. Los Angeles - Dodgers manager Grady Little has chosen to ignore Luis Gonzalez's horrible defense so far, sitting Andre Ethier all three times that Matt Kemp has been in the lineup against lefties. That's even though Ethier hit .351 in 77 at-bats against southpaws last year. Gonzalez was at .259. It could be the Gonzalez signing that costs the Dodgers a postseason appearance this year. It's be no surprise to see Gonzalez end up doing just enough offensively to stay in the lineup the entire season, all the while steadily hurting the club with his defense and blocking superior players. Maybe Loney, Kemp and Andy LaRoche aren't all better options right now, but two of the three will be by June or July. Loney just needs to keep working on learning the outfield for another month. Rafael Furcal (ankle) is close enough to coming off the DL that he should be activated in NL-only leagues this week. Mixed leaguers with a quality alternative may want to wait.www.sports - Jose Capellan has requested a trade after failing to make the Brewers and seems likely to go, perhaps to Colorado or San Francisco. San Fran would make more sense, given his flyball tendencies. Even though he's one of the NL's harder throwers, the 26-year-old Capellan is prone to the home run because his fastball is so straight. He also lacks a big weapon against left-handers. The Brewers still shouldn't give him away, but he no longer looks like a potential long-term closer. Corey Hart has already found himself on the bench twice, first in favor of Kevin Mench and then again on Sunday so that Gabe Gross could make his first start. Even after parting with Brady Clark, the Brewers still have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Hart has 20-20 potential, but until he gets hot, he's going to be a weak play in mixed leagues. New York - Did I miss the memo? Is it now mandatory to say that he's the game's most exciting player when referring to Jose Reyes? Regardless of whether he is or not, it's quickly becoming an annoying trend. Reyes may be emerging one of the best players in baseball, but I'd like to enjoy it without having every little thing he does get blown out of proportion (see Jeter, Derek). Besides, right now, Carlos Beltran is still putting more wins on the board for the Mets. Mike Pelfrey will be called up to make his season debut Friday against the Nationals. He'll be well worth using in NL-only leagues then. Orlando Hernandez and John Maine should be active in mixed leagues since they also get to take on the Nationals during the weekend series. Maine had the most impressive first-week outing for the Mets, but Oliver Perez's showing was awfully encouraging, too, especially the no walks in seven innings against the Braves. He threw just 82 pitches on his way to a victory. Perez's best fastball from three years ago rarely makes an appearance these days, but he doesn't need to throw in the mid-90s to succeed, not when he has good command. Some inconsistency seems likely, but his upside demands that he be owned in mixed leagues. Philadelphia - Freddy Garcia (biceps) is due to return from the DL and face the Astros on Sunday, so he's worth activating in NL-only leagues. Jon Lieber is also set to be activated, but he'll be in the bullpen. Picking up Francisco Rosario from the Jays was a nice move for the Phillies, but it may not aid the Philadelphia pen right away. Rosario, a top prospect as a starter before Tommy John surgery, is too inconsistent to be counted on as a setup man right now. He should eventually grow into the role, but he'll have to do so in the majors since he's out of options. The Phillies should use him when they're behind for the most part. Getting Jayson Werth into the lineup against lefties makes sense, but both times he's played so far, it's been at Shane Victorino's expense, even though Victorino is off to a much better start than Aaron Rowand and was also the superior player this spring. Rowand seems poised to disappoint in fantasy leagues again. The Phillies don't need to bench him, as his defense makes him valuable as long as he keeps his OPS in the 750 range, but neither do they need to give him more starts than Victorino. Victorino is the better fantasy property of the two even with a slightly reduced role. Pittsburgh - With his ice-cold start, it was a given that Jose Castillo would head to the bench following Freddy Sanchez's return from a knee injury on Sunday. The mild surprise was that Ryan Doumit, not Brad Eldred, was sent down to open up a roster spot. Eldred didn't even have an at-bat through five games. The Pirates, though, stuck him in right field on Sunday, and he responded with a homer and a double against the Reds. If Eldred is going to be on the roster, the Pirates need to keep finding ways to use him against lefties. However, they're not going to platoon Adam LaRoche and putting Eldred in right and Xavier Nady in center weakens the defense even more than it improves the offense. Eldred still looks like a weak play in NL-only leagues. It appeared the Pirates might have big problems at the end of games after Matt Capps and Salomon Torres combined to give up 18 runs in 16 2/3 innings this spring, but since Opening Day, the two have allowed one run, two hits and no walks in 8 1/3 innings, with Torres converting all four of his save chances. I'm still sort of skeptical about Torres finishing the year as a $20-$25 closer, but now that Capps has turned it around following his lousy March, he's highly recommended as a setup man. St. Louis - It took a setback Sunday for the Cardinals to decide Chris Carpenter's injury was worthy of an MRI exam. Management gave Carpenter a $63.5 million contract extension in December, yet his elbow needed to swell up twice before it was decided that he needed tests. I just don't get it. With Carpenter out, the Cardinals may haul up Blake Hawksworth to start Tuesday. Hawksworth reemerged as a quality prospect last year after missing most of 2004 and 2005 with shoulder problems, but he has just 13 starts in Double-A and none in Triple-A to his credit. He's probably not going to be worth using in fantasy leagues even if Carpenter ends up spending considerable time on the DL. Chris Duncan got the start in the Cardinals' second game against a lefty after manager Tony La Russa drew criticism by not playing him versus Tom Glavine on Opening Night. Duncan responded with a homer off Wandy Rodriguez in that game and is hitting .389 overall. He'll likely remain a full-time player, at least until Juan Encarnacion (wrist) returns. With the way Preston Wilson and So Taguchi have performed since the start of the March, there could be a case for using Duncan against lefties all year long. San Diego - Russell Branyan homered Saturday in his first start at third base and was 6-for-9 against Aaron Cook, Sunday's scheduled starter. Still, manager Bud Black went back to Kevin Kouzmanoff anyway and was rewarded when Kouzmanoff delivered a game-winning hit. The Padres will continue to spot Branyan against certain right-handers, but Kouzmanoff will bounce back from his slow start and produce a respectable batting average and solid power numbers. More than anything else, it was his injury history that caused me to rank him as the No. 31 third baseman entering the season. San Francisco - Barry Zito had an 11.57 ERA after two starts in 2005 and an 8.59 mark after two outings last year, so this year's 8.18 mark hardly seems worth getting excited about. It's not too early to see if he's a buy-low possibility. Stuck in the eighth spot in the lineup, Randy Winn went the first week without a run scored or an RBI. He's going to continue to have major problems contributing in both categories unless he moves up in the order, and considering that he finished with just 11 homers and 10 steals in 573 at-bats while batting mostly leadoff last year, it's not like he's going to do a lot else to help. He's not an option in mixed leagues right now. Giants manager Bruce Bochy did a surprisingly good job of getting Ryan Klesko at-bats last week, giving him a start over Rich Aurilia once and also playing Aurilia at third base to open up a spot. If it keeps up, Klesko will be worth playing in NL-only leagues. Washington - The Nationals lost Cristian Guzman (hamstring) and Nook Logan (ankle) to injuries on Opening Day and have already moved Dmitri Young up and Brian Schneider down in the lineup. Stability is not going to be a trademark in Washington this year. Guzman and Logan won't be eligible to return for at least another week, so Kory Casto and Ronnie Belliard will continue to be adequate plays in NL-only leagues. Ryan Church's stock seems up. He leads the Nats in homers (two) and doubles (four) and has already overtaken Schneider for the sixth spot in the lineup. He's not an option in mixed leagues, but a good April would make it tougher for the Nationals to bench him should he slump in May or June. Where the Nationals are having problems is at the top of the lineup, something that probably won't be helped by Guzman's return. Felipe Lopez is 10-for-30, but that's gotten him one run scored and no RBI. Ryan Zimmerman has just one RBI to go along with his .286 average. Zimmerman could play like an All-Star and still disappoint in fantasy leagues because of the lack of opportunities to drive in runs. Lopez at least will start stealing bases sometime soon. | ||
| | |
| | #73 | ||
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
|
The concern thus far is with the swelling, rather than any significant pain, but clearly the Cardinals are now worried that it's a lot more serious than they first expected. In a weird twist of fate, Carpenter gave up five runs on Opening Day and is now hurt, while the rest of the rotationwhich was widely considered to be a big question mark coming out of spring traininghas posted a combined 3.19 ERA through five starts. While Cardinals fans and Carpenter fantasy owners hold their collective breath awaiting the MRI results, here are some other notes from around baseball * Johnny Damon returned to action by going 2-for-2 with a double off the bench Sunday, but the Yankees lost Hideki Matsui to the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Damon indicated that he expects to be in the lineup against Minnesota to begin the week, with the climate-controlled Metrodome potentially helping to keep his calves healthy. With Damon back, Melky Cabrera can stop subbing for him in center field and begin subbing for Matsui in left field. Matsui heading to the DL with a relatively minor injury is surprising given that it took a broken wrist last season to snap his streak of 1,768 consecutive games played dating back to his days in Japan. Despite Damon being gimpy and Matsui heading to the sidelines, general manager Brian Cashman continues to insist that Bernie Williams is not on the radar. Instead, Kevin Thompson was called up from Triple-A, but Cabrera figures to get the bulk of the at-bats. * Randy Johnson made a minor-league rehab start at Single-A Sunday, tossing six innings of two-run ball while allowing four hits and recording four strikeouts. Johnson, who's recovering from offseason back surgery, reportedly worked in the low-90s with his fastball and said afterward that he'd "like to get my velocity going here a little." Johnson also said that he's not "yet convinced that I'm ready to pitch at the major-league level." Of course, Johnson stopped himself from being too pessimistic by adding that "it's kind of hard to gauge how successful you really are when you're pitching against minor-league kids, because they're so aggressive." He's expected to make one more minor-league start, this time at Triple-A on April 13, and is then scheduled to join the Diamondbacks' rotation. His season debut is tentatively scheduled for April 19 against the Padres. * Tim Lincecum doesn't get nearly the hype that fellow elite pitching prospects Philip Hughes and Homey Bailey receive, but after watching him during spring training I'm convinced that the No. 10 pick in last June's draft may have the best chance of the three to make a significant big-league impact by midseason. Because of that, I'm considering making keeping tabs on him a regular feature of "Daily Dose." A 5-foot-11, 160-pound flamethrower out of the University of Washington, Lincecum led all of college baseball in strikeouts last season before posting a 1.78 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 31.2 pro innings after signing. Armed with a unique, high-effort delivery, mid-90s fastball, and backbreaking curveball, Lincecum made his Triple-A debut Saturday by racking up eight strikeouts in five scoreless innings. The Lincecum Watch is officially on. AL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne (elbow) is scheduled to come off the disabled list Friday, but may be worked back into the bullpen mix in non-save situations Chone Figgins (fingers) could be cleared to begin throwing soon, but remains 2-3 weeks from returning Rondell White (calf) will likely be sidelined for several more days Despite leaving Sunday's game, Troy Glaus' heel injury doesn't sound serious Bad weather kept Johnny Damon (calf) from starting Sunday, but he went 2-for-2 with a double after entering in the seventh inning With B.J. Ryan having worked back-to-back days, the Blue Jays left Casey Janssen in for a two-inning save Sunday Bobby Crosby (back) returned to the lineup Sunday Minnesota's rotation has been strong thus far and Matt Garza had a rough debut at Triple-A Saturday, so don't expect a quick promotion Rocco Baldelli started in center field Saturday and stole a base Sunday, showing that his hamstring is close to being healthy. NL Quick Hits: Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) is expected back in the lineup Tuesday Freddy Sanchez (knee) showed that he was healthy Sunday by going 2-for-4 with a double Chris Coste (hamstring) was activated from the disabled list, but the Phillies optioned him to Triple-A and chose to keep Michael Bourn as their 25th man Mike Hampton threw a bullpen session Saturday in his comeback from an oblique strain, but had to cut things short when his surgically repaired left elbow became a problem After being benched Saturday because of a 2-for-17 start, rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff bounced back with a walk-off single Sunday Mike Pelfrey, who's set to join the Mets' rotation Friday, allowed two runs over five innings in a tune-up at Single-A Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday that the Marlins don't expect Jeremy Hermida (knee) back until at least the end of the month After taking batting practice Saturday, Carlos Quentin (shoulder) reportedly hopes to return in about one week. | ||
| | |
| | #74 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Lidge Out, Wheeler In In a move that has been a year in the making, manager Phil Garner officially relieved Brad Lidge of closer duties Monday. Dan Wheeler, who has served as Lidge's setup man for the past two-plus seasons, will take over ninth-inning duties. Wheeler has been among the better non-closer relievers in the league since the Astros got him from the Mets in late 2004, and immediately becomes one of the better fantasy closers in the NL. He doesn't have the same kind of strikeout potential that Lidge possesses, but few pitchers do. Wheeler still misses plenty of batsstriking out 146 batters in 162 innings since arriving in Houstonand throws strikes while doing a good job keeping the ballpark in the ballpark. Meanwhile, rather than switching roles with Wheeler and taking over as a setup man, Garner indicated that Lidge will work middle relief in an effort to get him back on track. Lidge serving up that memorable homer to Albert Pujols in Game 5 the 2005 NLCS is usually pointed to as the beginning of his steep decline, and that may indeed be the case. However, it's also worth noting that he'll turn 31 years old on his next birthday and was worked hard by the Astros prior to his recent struggles. From 2003-2005, Lidge threw a total of 250 innings, including 94.2 frames in 2004. Between the shaken confidence, heavy workload, and being on the wrong side of 30, it's not shocking that Lidge wasn't able to keep up the same level of dominance that he displayed in 2004 and 2005. It seems likely that the Astros will try to deal Lidge to a team that still views him as a late-inning option, and if not Garner may soon turn back to him anyway rather than let Rick White cough up leads in front of Wheeler. In either case, there's still fantasy value left in Lidge. While Wheeler begins his time as a household fantasy name, here are some other notes from around baseball * An MRI on Chris Carpenter's injured right elbow revealed what the Cardinals are calling "moderate arthritis and a mild impingement." An arthritic right elbow sounds like very bad long-term news for Carpenter, but that's such an uncommon diagnosis that it's tough to get a feel for exactly what the impact will be. In the short term, the Cardinals are no doubt pleased that the MRI failed to show any ligament damage, which was surely their primary concern. Carpenter has been placed on the disabled list, retroactive to April 2, and the team said Monday that he'll be reevaluated in 10-14 days. Early speculation had the Cardinals calling up prospects Chris Narveson or Blake Hawksworth to replace Carpenter in the rotation, but instead minor-league veteran Randy Keisler is getting the nod. The best-case scenario for Carpenter is a return at the end of the month, but there's certainly not a definitive timetable at this point. * A strained oblique muscle during spring training delayed Mike Hampton's comeback from Tommy John surgery, but now another serious elbow injury has overtaken the oblique strain as his biggest problem. Hampton's surgically repaired left elbow began hurting during a bullpen session Sunday and it turns out that he has a torn flexor tendon, which typically takes 6-9 months to recover from. The good news? That leaves him with enough time to be ready for next spring. However, at that point Hampton will have missed back-to-back seasons (and half of a third year) with a pair of severe elbow injuries. In other words, his long-term prospects are pretty dim. For the rest of this season, Hampton's injury means that Lance Cormier's spot in the rotation should be secure assuming he can return soon from a shoulder injury of his own. Kyle Davies, who's currently subbing for Cormier as the replacement for Hampton, should also get plenty of starts. * With Rondell White heading to the disabled list with a calf strain, Jason Tyner should get the bulk of the playing time in left field and has enough speed to be a worthwhile pickup. Along with losing White, Minnesota will also be without Jeff Cirillo, who's set to undergo knee surgery that's expected to keep him sidelined for at least a month. To replace him on the roster, 22-year-old middle-infield prospect Alexi Casilla was called up from Triple-A. Cirillo had been acting as Jason Kubel's platoon partner at designated hitter and the backup at both corner-infield spots, but Casilla is a slap-hitting speedster who's severely miscast in that role. In fact, his only chance for significant playing time would seemingly come at Jason Bartlett's expense, which could be a possibility with Bartlett starting 1-for-18 at the plate while making three errors at shortstop. Casilla is a good long-term bet, but may not be ready quite yet. AL Quick Hits: Mark Buehrle (forearm) has been cleared to start Wednesday against the A's Octavio Dotel (oblique) could return over the weekend, but manager Buddy Bell didn't sound optimistic about the possibility when asked Monday Because of injuries and good pitching, Rich Harden's loss to the White Sox Monday was his first since August 9, 2005 Meanwhile, because of injuries and poor pitching, Carl Pavano's win over the Twins Monday was his first since May 22, 2005 Thanks in large part to the four straight snowed-out games, the Indians may be able to avoid placing Victor Martinez (quadriceps) on the disabled list Jose Contreras bounced back from a brutal Opening Day by tossing six innings of one-run ball against the A's Tuesday With a 14-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.2 innings, the long-awaited Daniel Cabrera breakout may finally be taking place I'm already getting ready to watch Wednesday's exciting Felix Hernandez-Daisuke Matsuzaka matchup. NL Quick Hits: Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Sunday night that Jorge Julio remains the Marlins' closer, but Henry Owens saved a two-run lead against the Brewers Monday Rafael Furcal (ankle) is scheduled to rejoin the Dodgers Friday after a brief minor-league rehab assignment at Single-A Following seven scoreless innings Monday night, the Padres are expected to announce that Chris Young has agreed to a contract extension that could keep him in San Diego through 2011 Kevin Kouzmanoff will likely sit out Tuesday's game after being hit on the left elbow by a pitch Monday night Jason Schmidt's hamstring injury doesn't sound overly serious and he's being called day-to-day With zero experience above Single-A, don't expect 21-year-old Rick Vanden Hurk to have much success stepping into the rotation for the injured Ricky Nolasco (elbow) Carlos Quentin (shoulder) took batting practice Monday and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as Friday. |
| | |
| | #75 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Prospects: Butler and Humber While going back to the standard Prospect Report format for today's column was the plan, the first week of the season produced so little noteworthy callups that dedicating a whole section to the bunch didn't seem appropriate. Instead, we'll start with a notes section on the minors in general, including the callups, and then move on to the standard player profiles. Minor Notes The best of the callups this week was Kory Casto, who was recalled a week ago today. The left-handed hitting Casto immediately took over in left field, with Ryan Church shifting to center and Nook Logan heading to the disabled list. Casto was a prime sleeper this spring in NL-only leagues, but he's just 4-for-23 without an extra-base hit thus far. He could lose time to Chris Snelling if he keeps performing poorly and he'll likely head back to the minors once Logan is ready to return in a week or two. I suppose Casto wasn't the best callup of the week if you count Micah Owings, but he was just sent to the minors as a technicality and had already made the big league roster. As I touched on last week, he's a player to watch in NL-only formats but expectations should be relatively low The Marlins called up Rick Vanden Hurk from Double-A to take Ricky Nolasco's spot on the roster, and the Hurk will start on Tuesday against the Brewers. He's not at all ready for the majors yet and isn't a strong prospect to begin with, so he's safe to ignore for now Kevin Thompson was recalled by the Yankees on Sunday with Hideki Matsui hitting the DL. Thompson has shown flashes of a decent bat and has good speed, but he's unlikely to play much or impact fantasy leagues. It's only a matter of time before Julian Tavarez wears out his welcome in the Red Sox rotation, and if that happens to come before Jon Lester is ready, Devern Hansack would get the call to start for the big club. The 29-year-old right-hander impressed this spring, then struck out 10 while walking one in 5 1/3 innings in his debut for Triple-A Pawtucket. Although his advanced age means he's not much of a prospect, Hansack has looked good enough since returning to professional baseball to be of strong consideration in AL-only leagues if recalled Adam Lind doesn't want to be in the minors. He's 7-for-21 with a double and two homers thus far for Triple-A Syracuse, and it's pretty clear that he's big league ready. Unfortunately for him, the Blue Jays have one of the best OF/1B/DH combinations in baseball. Lind is worth holding onto until being promoted. The entire Durham Bulls' rotation is off to a good start, with four names that could have fantasy relevance. Jeff Niemann gave up two runs and struck out seven in five innings of work, while Andrew Sonnanstine also looked good while yielding one run and punching out eight hitters over six innings. Mitch Talbot added six scoreless innings on Monday night, with Jason Hammel tossing five no-hit innings in his first start. Niemann is the best long-term prospect of the group, but Sonnanstine and Talbot are also quality, underrated prospects that should be solid big leaguers. It wouldn't be surprising to see two of the four in the majors by the All-Star break, and all are worth monitoring in AL-only formats. I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other, but the decision to assign Mets' outfielder Fernando Martinez to Double-A Binghamton at the beginning of the season is one that will be under much scrutiny. The left-handed hitting center fielder didn't do much with the bat after a late season promotion to High-A St. Lucie, and he also posted only mediocre totals in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Martinez was awarded the promotion after the Mets' front office was impressed with his work ethic and ability to adjust. That's a somewhat surprising idea on first look, but it becomes even more interesting when one realizes that Martinez won't turn 19 until the season is over. He'll undoubtedly be the youngest player in Double-A, and his progress will be an intriguing study. He went 3-for-4 in his debut on Monday night. Looking for a minor leaguer that could rise quickly through the ranks and also shoot way up prospect rankings this year? 2006 first-rounder Brett Sinkbeil is one such player. His fastball-slider combination is already fairly advanced, and further developing his changeup is all that's stopping the right-hander from becoming a top tier prospect. The Marlins are playing it aggressive with the 22 year-old, assigning him to High-A Jupiter to begin the season. He threw six scoreless innings in his debut there last week Tim Lincecum struck out eight batters in five innings in his first start of the season for Triple-A Fresno last week. He gave up two hits, no runs, and walked three. He'll be up with the Giants before you know it, and he's worth stashing away even in one year NL-only leagues. Mixed leaguers should be following closely as the right-hander could have value starting or closing for the Giants. Prospect Profiles Billy Butler OF Royals Don't look now, but the Royals have a core of young hitting worthy of a contending team. Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and David DeJesus are already contributing up in the majors, but the club also has depth in the high minors with Justin Huber, Chris Lubanski, and Butler. Throw in an intriguing youngster in the low minors like Jeff Bianchi and the second overall pick in this June's draft, which could be used on Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters or one of several promising high school bats, and the team seems well stocked on the offensive end. The pitching side of the equation isn't so hot, but the overall situation still promises more hope than any recent Royals' roster. Outside of Gordon, Butler figures to be the best pro of the group. The 14th overall selection in the 2004 draft out of a Jacksonville, Florida high school, Butler was seen as having both a polished and potent bat, but lacking any speed or defensive position. The right-hander signed quickly in 2004, and then destroyed opposing pitchers with a .373/.488/.596 line in 260 at-bats for Idaho Falls of the Rookie-level Pioneer League. Butler also showed excellent plate discipline, posting a 63/57 K/BB ratio en route to winning the team's Minor League Player of the Year award. Given his performance at Idaho Falls the year before, the Royals had no choice but to challenge Butler and have him skip low Single-A. He debuted at High-A High Desert of the California League, and promptly continued displaying advanced skills at the plate. He hit .348 with 30 doubles and 25 homers in just 379 at-bats, good for a not so modest .636 slugging percentage. His K/BB ratio regressed to 80/42, but it was still a positive given he was 19 and performing so well. A late season promotion to Double-A Wichita also went well, with Butler continuing to show the ability to hit for average and power. The only negative in his 2005 campaign was that Butler, a third basemen his whole baseball life until now, was switched to the outfield. It was an expected move given his defensive limitations, however, so it dropped his prospect stock very little. The Royals wanted to give Butler a consolidation year to allow him to work on his defense, so he began 2006 at Double-A Wichita again and stayed there all season. His .331/.388/.499 line was more than adequate given he was one of the youngest players in the league, and he also managed to cut down on his strikeouts while taking home the Texas League batting crown. Butler's work on the defensive end paid off as he did show improvements in the outfield, and his strong arm leads some to believe he could stick in right field. Given a chance to impress the club this spring, Butler hit .419 with two homers and five doubles in 31 at-bats, causing manager Buddy Bell to offer a glowing endorsement despite the club's decision to send Butler to Triple-A Omaha. However, the right-hander is 5-for-19 with two homers in the early going for Omaha, and his stay there could be a short one. Although fellow top prospect Justin Huber is older and has more experience, the club clearly doesn't value his contributions highly and Butler would likely be called up first should an opening arise. With a veteran mediocrity in Emil Brown and the injury prone Mike Sweeney the players blocking Butler, he could be called up as early as May. Even is his promotion is delayed, he'll be in the majors for good at the start of 2008. It's likely that Butler will end up at DH eventually, but the club should see if he can become an average defensive outfielder first. Both the Royals and fantasy leaguers won't care all that much either way, as Butler's huge 6'1", 240-pound frame and balanced approach at the plate mean he should develop into an All-Star offensively. Since he's already adept at pitch recognition and going the other way, there's nothing stopping Butler from being an immediate asset in the majors. Butler also won't turn 21 for another week, so he's one of baseball's 10 best prospects. Philip Humber RHP Mets Part of the trio of dominant right-handers that helped Rice to a national title in 2003, Humber was selected third overall, ahead of teammates Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend, in the 2004 draft. Humber had shown ace potential with a low-90s fastball and plus curve in college, and that he was 6'4" and 210 pounds gave scouts the big frame that they so often seek. The right-hander also had a reputation for being poised on the mound and exhibited above average command, so there was every reason to expect a smooth transition to professional baseball. Humber signed too late to play in 2004, and was immediately assigned to High-A St. Lucie to begin 2005. He posted strong peripherals with a 65/18 K/BB ratio, but he also gave up 74 hits, including seven homers, in just 70 1/3 innings of work. The end result was a disappointing 4.99 ERA. Still, that Humber was showing good command and strikeout potential were positives, and it figured that he'd miss more bats as time went on. The Mets believed in him enough to promote him to Double-A Binghamton that summer, but Humber felt elbow pain after his first start there and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. Despite undergoing the surgery less than a year prior, Humber returned to the mound in June of 2006. He made one start for the Gulf Coast Mets, and then spent the next few months between St. Lucie and Binghamton. Even more impressive than the quick recovery timeframe was that Humber showed no ill effects from the surgery upon returning. His fastball still reached the low 90s, and his curveball still had good bite and plus potential. The return of his arsenal, in addition to further progress with his changeup, allowed Humber to post a 2.82 ERA and a 79/20 K/BB ratio in 76 1/3 innings. The right-hander made a few relief appearances with the big club in September, and was then sent to the Arizona Fall League. He didn't last long in the AFL, getting shut down after one start with shoulder soreness. The Mets insist it wasn't an issue, but it's still a worrisome occurrence. Humber was assigned to Triple-A New Orleans to start the season, throwing five innings of one-run ball in his debut. The right-hander seems likely to remain there for at least a few months, but the Mets should come calling at some point during the year. With two 40-year-olds at the top of the rotation and three potentially high variance pitchers in John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey at the back of the rotation, it wouldn't be surprising if the Mets had a very different look to their rotation come late July. With Humber's talents and the Mets willing to push him aggressively, it'd be a surprise if Humber wasn't first in line come June. Even with significant injury concerns going forward, Humber still ranks as one of the game's top 50 prospects. |
| | |
| | #76 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Dice-K vs. King Felix There's a pretty good chance that I'm setting myself up for a massive letdown, but I'm ridiculously excited about tonight's Daisuke Matsuzaka-Felix Hernandez matchup in Boston. Not only are two of the best, most intriguing young pitchers in all of baseball squaring off after combining to start the season 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 22 strikeouts in two opening-week appearances, there are a pair of interesting subplots that add to the drama. First, Matsuzaka will be making his Fenway Park debut. Beating the Royals in Kansas City last week took away some of the novelty, but his impressive 10-strikeout debut also helped to build up the hype. Beyond that, Ichiro Suzuki will be the first batter Matsuzaka faces and he'll also be going up against Kenji Johjima, which means the overflowing throng of Japanese media that would have been in attendance anyway will probably be quadrupled. The Daisuke-versus-Ichiro storyline has been plastered so heavily all over the Boston-area newspapers this week that I can quote Suzuki's career numbers against Matsuzaka in Japan without even looking. Seriously, a mid-20s Ichiro was 8-for-34 against a teenage Matsuzaka, which is the type of "knowledge" that's too dorky and specific to even be on a Trivial Pursuit card. I can only imagine what the coverage has been like in Japan. Plus, coming off an overpowering Opening Day outing that was followed by his 21st birthday, King Felix is a storyline all by himself. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more exciting matchup in baseball history featuring two pitchers with a combined 18 career major-league wins. All of which is why the odds are that I'll end up being extremely disappointed by the whole thing, although to be fair anything short of dueling no-hitters would have me thinking it could have been better. While I get the popcorn ready and start warming up the 60-inch screen, here are some other notes from around baseball * Zack Greinke, who was impressive while losing to Matsuzaka and the Red Sox last week, turned in a second straight strong start Tuesday. Greinke held the Blue Jays to one run over six innings, striking out five while walking none to give him a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 innings thus far. Greinke's fantasy stock plummeted when he missed most of last season while dealing with personal problems, but it's important to remember that he's still just 23 years old. He's already tossed nearly 350 big-league innings, with a 17-loss season and off-field issues on his resume, but if any other 23-year-old was pitching like he has so far this season it would be a big story. I still have doubts about Greinke developing into a No. 1 starter, but that goes all the way back to his days as a top prospect. More importantly, he appears to be back on the fast track to fantasy relevanceat least on the fieldand should be valued accordingly in all formats. * One day after saying Eric Gagne would be eased back into the bullpen mix in a non-closer role, manager Ron Washington changed his mind Tuesday. Washington said that Gagne will take over ninth-inning duties immediately once he returns from the disabled list, which is expected to happen Friday. That pronouncement is good news for Gagne owners who're hoping their draft-day risk can still pay off, but it effectively takes the air out of Akinori Otsuka's fantasy stock. * Jered Weaver may not be quite as close to returning to the Angels' starting rotation as initially thought. Weaver is scheduled to start Wednesday at Single-A and is expected to throw around 90 pitches, but the Los Angeles Times reports that his planned return Monday against the Red Sox "is looking a little iffy." Manager Mike Scioscia said that Weaver remains "penciled in" against Boston, but added that "there's a chance he could need one more rehab start." AL Quick Hits: Shea Hillenbrand returned to the lineup Tuesday, but didn't move well and may have aggravated his groin injury Manager Eric Wedge said Tuesday that the Indians have no plans to place Victor Martinez (quad) on the disabled list Making the second of four scheduled minor-league rehab starts, Bartolo Colon (shoulder) gave up two runs in 5.2 innings at Single-A Jon Lester, also making the second of four scheduled starts at Single-A, tossed four scoreless innings Tuesday Alex Rodriguez went deep Tuesday for the fourth straight game, giving him six homers and 16 RBIs through seven games Dan Johnson (hip) could begin playing in extended spring training within two weeks and is on track for an early May return Manager Mike Scioscia loves to run, but the Angels have already seen two losses end on an Erick Aybar steal attempt Manager Buddy Bell said Tuesday that the "best-case scenario" for Octavio Dotel's (oblique) return is now April 20, and Joakim Soria could be overtaking David Riske as his replacement after an impressive two-inning save. NL Quick Hits: One day after Henry Owens notched his first save subbing for him, Jorge Julio returned as closer and blew his second save Matt Kemp will miss about two weeks after his shoulder injury was diagnosed as a separation, meaning Andre Ethier will get regular at-bats for a while Chris Young (groin) may not return until Friday, with Alberto Callaspo continuing to replace him in the Diamondbacks' outfield Meanwhile, Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is expected to play in an extended spring training game Wednesday and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment Friday Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) did not make his scheduled return to the lineup Tuesday and may instead be out until Friday Prince Fielder was 3-for-3 with two walks before Tuesday's Brewers-Marlins game was suspended in the 10th inning because of rain Solid NL-only sleeper Chris Sampson made his first start Tuesday and tossed five scoreless innings against the Cubs Doing his best Brad Lidge impression, new closer Dan Wheeler gave up two runs on four hits Tuesday, but it was a non-save situation. |
| | |
| | #77 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Fantasy Goals For those of you expecting the results of the team-name contest, I'll be announcing those next week to give readers a chance to interact on our new forum on the topic. Check it out...and for those of you who haven't sent me your team name submissions, get them in already! This week, I'll discuss fantasy goals for this season and provide my thoughts on Curtis Granderson, Geoff Jenkins, B.J. Upton, Aaron Hill, Tim Hudson, Kip Wells, and others. Topic of the Week: Fantasy Goals People love to set personal goals. Quit Krispy Kremes cold turkey. Find a mate who cooks well and doesn't nag. Watch less ultimate fighting and more C-SPAN. Surf less porn at work. Etcetera, etcetera. Maybe we in fantasyland should be more goal oriented. If we were, what might some of our aspirations be? I'd like to get your thoughts on this (jgangi@rotoworld.com). In the meantime, here are some possibilities that come to mind:
Alfonso Soriano Every year, some top-tier players start off a bit slow, and every year a good percentage of fantasy owners hit the panic button. So far this year, Soriano is the biggest disappointment, hitting just .200 with no homers or RBI in 35 at bats. Just remember: We're talking about eight games here. An eight-game slump in the middle of July goes practically unnoticed. Keep your finger off that button! Albert Pujols See above. Manny Ramirez Like Pujols and Soriano, Ramirez is a star who's underperformed early on. However, unlike Pujols and Soriano, Manny provides some cause for worry in that he's almost 35 years old, he's been in the league for 15 years, and he of course has been known to miss time with questionable afflictions. Still, it's way too early to jump ship on Manny given his past production and the potent lineup in which he bats. Jermaine Dye So far Dye is bringing a smile to the faces of those who predicted that he'd be a bust this season, hitting just .100 with one RBI and no runs. Personally, I believe in the 11-year veteran given his consistently solid production over the last eight years. He probably won't match his career-best numbers from last year (44 HR, 120 RBI), but he could certainly hit .275 with 30 or so homers and 90 RBI. Curtis Granderson So far this preseason sleeper has come through big for owners who rolled the dice on him. To date, he's batting .333 with two long balls and a steal. But will he continue to be productive? His history says he should maintain at least some value. Over four years in the minors, he hit .300 and averaged about 14 HR and 15 SB per 450 AB. And he should provide plenty of runs hitting atop the Tigers' order. Geoff Jenkins Usually an underrated fantasy producer, the 32-year-old Jenkins disappointed last year, managing just 17 HR and 70 RBI. Undoubtedly, this performance landed him in a platoon with Corey Hart to start this season. However, with three bombs already to go along with a .400 AVG, the Brett Favre look-alike could soon be back in a full-time role, in which case he'd provide plenty of value. Keep in mind that, from 2003 to 2005, Jenkins averaged more than 26 HR and 90 RBI a season. B.J. Upton The much hyped Upton is finally getting some consistent time in Tampa Bay, and thus far he's making the most of it, hitting .409 with a homer and a steal in 22 AB. He's definitely worth grabbing for his enormous ability as a base stealer. Last season, he swiped 46 bags in just 395 AB for Triple-A Durham. However, you'll want to monitor his playing time closely, being that he could lose at bats to any number of guys should his batting average dip anywhere near his major-league average of .251. But that may never happen, if he hits like he did in the minors, where he boasted a .296 AVG over four years. Aaron Hill Hitting .333 with a homer, Hill may be attracting the attention of owners in need of middle-infield help. Just remember that, while Hill has proven he can hit for average, he's shown little power or speed at any level of professional baseball. Not to mention he bats seventh. Orlando Hudson Surprisingly, Hudson has been one of the hottest hitters out of the gates, hitting .395 with two round trippers and 11 runs. After career highs across the board last year (.287 AVG, 15 HR, nine steals), there's reason to believe the 29-year-old infielder is steadily improving. Still, you can't expect him to maintain his current pace. Josh Beckett With two wins, 13 K, a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 12 IP, Beckett is making teammate Curt Schilling's predictions that Beckett would bounce back this year look spot on. Certainly, we know the second overall pick from 1999 has the ability to dominate, as he's shown in flashes before (like when he helped the Marlins to a World Series victory). Perhaps this is the year it all comes together for the 27-year-old. Tim Hudson Disregarded in many fantasy leagues thanks to an abysmal 2006 in which he posted a 4.86 ERA, Hudson has come roaring back with just one earned run through his first 14 innings this year. Perhaps more impressive are his 12 strikeouts. Coupled with an impressive spring, this early season performance seems to indicate that Hudson's nagging oblique injuries are finally a thing of the past. Look for him to resume his pre-2006 form. Kip Wells One of the top starters thus far, Wells has whiffed 14 batters in 13 IP while allowing just six hits and two earned runs. On the tails of a good spring, this could possibly indicate that Wells is ready to return to his form from 2002 and 2003, when he posted ERAs in the mid threes. Certainly, he's worth picking up in case. Pitching for the Cards could lead to a career high in wins. Dan Wheeler Now taking over for Brad Lidge as Houston's closer, Wheeler should be grabbed immediately in all leagues. Don't let his 9.00 ERA deter you; the guy can pitch, as he's shown by posting ERAs under 2.52 in each of the last two seasons. In 2005, in fact, he impressed with a 0.98 WHIP. And he'll get you nearly a strikeout an inning. Perhaps Manager Phil Garner was sincere when he said he believes that Lidge will "get back," but keep in mind that the once elite closer's struggles date back to last year, when he greatly disappointed with a 5.28 ERA. Perhaps Wheeler won't keep the job long, and perhaps he might not get things turned around right away, but if you have anyone worth dumping for a potentially dominant closerand I'm guessing you doget to your wire pronto! |
| | |
| | #78 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Daisuke Who? To say that Felix Hernandez stole the show Wednesday night in Boston would be a tremendous understatement, because he was the show. With the baseball world focused on Daisuke Matsuzaka's Fenway Park debut, King Felix made the powerful Red Sox lineup look silly, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before J.D. Drew led off with a single up the middle that was the only hit Hernandez surrendered in a complete-game shutout. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks Making his last start as a 20-year-old on Opening Day, Hernandez tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out 12 batters in a performance that I described in this space as "about as good as a pitcher can be." He was even better Wednesday, making his first start as a 21-year-old on eight days' rest, although with "only" six strikeouts his boxscore line didn't look quite as dominant. Instead of missing bats, Hernandez simply made the Red Sox pound everything into the ground. eog.com He induced an incredible 17 ground-ball outs, with Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia saying afterward that Hernandez "was throwing 95-mph sinkers that looked like they were moving six feet it was ridiculous." Combined with the dozen ground-ball outs he got on Opening Day, Hernandez now boasts a 29-to-5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and 18-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts, which is a rare combination that's definitely best described as "ridiculous." The Player's Paradise I was extremely high on Hernandez coming into the season, ranking him as the No. 3 fantasy starter in the AL behind only Johan Santana and Roy Halladay, but after watching his first two masterpieces I'm ready to move him up even higher. With Chris Carpenter on the disabled list, a strong argument can be made for Hernandez being the No. 2 fantasy starter in all of baseball, and at the very least only Santana is a clear-cut choice over him for the remainder of this year. While the 350 credentialed media members in Boston Wednesday night consider dropping the Matsuzaka beat to follow Hernandez around from city-to-city, here are some other notes from around baseball * Impressed with Joakim Soria's two-inning save Tuesday and underwhelmed by David Riske's performance thus far, manager Buddy Bell indicated Wednesday that he plans to make Soria the Royals' closer until Octavio Dotel returns from the disabled list. Dotel is tentatively due back on April 20, but his recovery timetable has already been pushed back twice and he'll remain an injury risk even after he returns. That means Soria should have significant fantasy value in all formats until at least the end of the month and, if he pitches well during that time, will be worth holding onto in many leagues beyond Dotel's return. Released by the Dodgers following Tommy John surgery in 2003, Soria made a name for himself in the Mexican League last year and was signed by the Padres. The Royals snatched him up with the No. 2 pick in December's Rule 5 draft, one spot after Josh Hamilton. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football* - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice Soria has very few minor-league innings on his resume and little in the way of an official performance track record to base long-term projections on, but he looked very good during spring training and has been the Royals' best reliever thus far. That's not saying much, of course, but Kansas City's lack of quality bullpen options certainly plays into Soria's favor and makes it likely that he'll remain a setup man even if Dotel comes back strong. www.greenbaypackers.wswww.baltimoreravens.wswww.buffalobills.wswww.miamidolphins.wswww.newyorkgiants.ws * Meanwhile in Florida, manager Fredi Gonzalez went from giving Jorge Julio a vote of confidence Sunday to removing him from the closer job Wednesday. Despite trading Yusmeiro Petit to the Diamondbacks for him less than a month ago, the Marlins will demote Julio to a middle-relief role following two blown saves during the past week. That means saves are now out of the question and even decisions may be difficult to come by for a while. Gonzalez has yet to name an official replacement as of Thursday morning, but it's pretty clear that Henry Owens will get the first crack at the job. Owens converted a save when Julio got a day off Monday and has an impressive minor-league track record, including a 1.58 ERA and 74-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings at Double-A last season. However, with Taylor Tankersley close to returning from the disabled list, Owens will need a strong start to hold onto the gig. Sports Picks AL Quick Hits: Mike Mussina will likely miss his next start and could be bound for the disabled list after leaving Wednesday's game with a hamstring injury Johan Santana vehemently denied a report that he's ended contract negotiations with the Twins and plans to become a free agent following next season Jaret Wright is being called day-to-day after leaving his start Tuesday with right shoulder tightness If Wright does miss time, Hayden Penn won't be able to replace him in the rotation after being scratched from his Triple-A start Wednesday with forearm soreness Al Reyes earned his second save of the season with a perfect ninth inning against the Rangers Wednesday Jason Bartlett's streak of 106 straight games started was snapped Wednesday, with recent call-up Alexi Casilla getting the nod in his place Jonny Gomes was out of the starting lineup Wednesday for the seventh time in eight games Arthur Rhodes is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, which could mean the end of the 37-year-old's career. NL Quick Hits: Asked Wednesday about his scheduled April 19 return date, Randy Johnson (back) said, "Don't put that in stone" When Rafael Furcal (ankle) returns from the disabled list Friday, manager Grady Little said he plans to bat him leadoff and hit Juan Pierre second Freddy Garcia (biceps) tossed five innings in a simulated game Wednesday and is on track to start for the Phillies Sunday Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment and expects to return to the Diamondbacks early next week Manager Jerry Narron yanked Edwin Encarnacion from Wednesday's game because he didn't run out a first-inning pop up After a strong start to the season, Salomon Torres followed up a blown save Tuesday with a loss Wednesday, all while Matt Capps has 6.1 scoreless innings Scott Rolen (back) hopes to return Friday after sitting out two straight games If the Astros look to deal Brad Lidge, the Devil Rays are rumored to be interested. |
| | |
| | #79 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Daisuke Who? To say that Felix Hernandez stole the show Wednesday night in Boston would be a tremendous understatement, because he was the show. With the baseball world focused on Daisuke Matsuzaka's Fenway Park debut, King Felix made the powerful Red Sox lineup look silly, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before J.D. Drew led off with a single up the middle that was the only hit Hernandez surrendered in a complete-game shutout. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks Making his last start as a 20-year-old on Opening Day, Hernandez tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out 12 batters in a performance that I described in this space as "about as good as a pitcher can be." He was even better Wednesday, making his first start as a 21-year-old on eight days' rest, although with "only" six strikeouts his boxscore line didn't look quite as dominant. Instead of missing bats, Hernandez simply made the Red Sox pound everything into the ground. eog.com He induced an incredible 17 ground-ball outs, with Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia saying afterward that Hernandez "was throwing 95-mph sinkers that looked like they were moving six feet it was ridiculous." Combined with the dozen ground-ball outs he got on Opening Day, Hernandez now boasts a 29-to-5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and 18-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts, which is a rare combination that's definitely best described as "ridiculous." I was extremely high on Hernandez coming into the season, ranking him as the No. 3 fantasy starter in the AL behind only Johan Santana and Roy Halladay, but after watching his first two masterpieces I'm ready to move him up even higher. With Chris Carpenter on the disabled list, a strong argument can be made for Hernandez being the No. 2 fantasy starter in all of baseball, and at the very least only Santana is a clear-cut choice over him for the remainder of this year. The Player's Paradise While the 350 credentialed media members in Boston Wednesday night consider dropping the Matsuzaka beat to follow Hernandez around from city-to-city, here are some other notes from around baseball * Impressed with Joakim Soria's two-inning save Tuesday and underwhelmed by David Riske's performance thus far, manager Buddy Bell indicated Wednesday that he plans to make Soria the Royals' closer until Octavio Dotel returns from the disabled list. Dotel is tentatively due back on April 20, but his recovery timetable has already been pushed back twice and he'll remain an injury risk even after he returns. That means Soria should have significant fantasy value in all formats until at least the end of the month and, if he pitches well during that time, will be worth holding onto in many leagues beyond Dotel's return. Released by the Dodgers following Tommy John surgery in 2003, Soria made a name for himself in the Mexican League last year and was signed by the Padres. The Royals snatched him up with the No. 2 pick in December's Rule 5 draft, one spot after Josh Hamilton. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football* - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice Soria has very few minor-league innings on his resume and little in the way of an official performance track record to base long-term projections on, but he looked very good during spring training and has been the Royals' best reliever thus far. That's not saying much, of course, but Kansas City's lack of quality bullpen options certainly plays into Soria's favor and makes it likely that he'll remain a setup man even if Dotel comes back strong. * Meanwhile in Florida, manager Fredi Gonzalez went from giving Jorge Julio a vote of confidence Sunday to removing him from the closer job Wednesday. Despite trading Yusmeiro Petit to the Diamondbacks for him less than a month ago, the Marlins will demote Julio to a middle-relief role following two blown saves during the past week. That means saves are now out of the question and even decisions may be difficult to come by for a while. Gonzalez has yet to name an official replacement as of Thursday morning, but it's pretty clear that Henry Owens will get the first crack at the job. Owens converted a save when Julio got a day off Monday and has an impressive minor-league track record, including a 1.58 ERA and 74-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings at Double-A last season. However, with Taylor Tankersley close to returning from the disabled list, Owens will need a strong start to hold onto the gig. www.sportspickwinners.com AL Quick Hits: Mike Mussina will likely miss his next start and could be bound for the disabled list after leaving Wednesday's game with a hamstring injury Johan Santana vehemently denied a report that he's ended contract negotiations with the Twins and plans to become a free agent following next season Jaret Wright is being called day-to-day after leaving his start Tuesday with right shoulder tightness If Wright does miss time, Hayden Penn won't be able to replace him in the rotation after being scratched from his Triple-A start Wednesday with forearm soreness Al Reyes earned his second save of the season with a perfect ninth inning against the Rangers Wednesday Jason Bartlett's streak of 106 straight games started was snapped Wednesday, with recent call-up Alexi Casilla getting the nod in his place Jonny Gomes was out of the starting lineup Wednesday for the seventh time in eight games Arthur Rhodes is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, which could mean the end of the 37-year-old's career. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws NL Quick Hits: Asked Wednesday about his scheduled April 19 return date, Randy Johnson (back) said, "Don't put that in stone" When Rafael Furcal (ankle) returns from the disabled list Friday, manager Grady Little said he plans to bat him leadoff and hit Juan Pierre second Freddy Garcia (biceps) tossed five innings in a simulated game Wednesday and is on track to start for the Phillies Sunday Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment and expects to return to the Diamondbacks early next week Manager Jerry Narron yanked Edwin Encarnacion from Wednesday's game because he didn't run out a first-inning pop up After a strong start to the season, Salomon Torres followed up a blown save Tuesday with a loss Wednesday, all while Matt Capps has 6.1 scoreless innings Scott Rolen (back) hopes to return Friday after sitting out two straight games If the Astros look to deal Brad Lidge, the Devil Rays are rumored to be interested. |
| | |
| | #80 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Bullpen Report Week 2 It's early in the season, but several teams have already had big shakeups in their bullpens. The pre-season closers for the Astros, Marlins, and Royals are all currently out of jobs for a variety of reasons. Several other clubs have seen their shaky closers establish themselves as more reliable options, making these stoppers less risky investments. Constant reevaluation has become the norm in the world of the always-scrutinized closers, and in this week's column we'll analyze who has seen the biggest change in value. All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, or DL. Arizona Diamondbacks Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure) Key setup men: Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, Tony Pena Valverde entered the year as one of the more promising closers around, but inconsistency and injuries had held him down before. Neither has been a problem in the early going, as Valverde has converted 4-of-5 saves in the early going. The only runs the right-hander has given up were in his blown save, and only one of those was earned. Valverde easily has top 20 closer potential, and his strong start gives his value a boost. I wouldn't recommend selling-high on this one, at least for now. Atlanta Braves Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Oscar Villareal The 38-year-old Wickman has been as reliable as ever thus far, recording a win and three saves in four outings without allowing a run to score. He remains a quality option, albeit with more risk than some of the other 'secure' listings in this space. Baltimore Orioles Closer: Chris Ray (Secure) Key setup men: Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker In what will undoubtedly be one of the year's most memorable moments, Ray served up a walk-off grand slam to Alex Rodriguez this past week. The right-hander was cruising the first two outs of that save, but came unraveled after almost hitting Derek Jeter and later walking the star shortstop. Things went down hill from there, with Ray hitting Bobby Abreu and then giving up the grand slam. On the plus side, Ray came back the very next day and recorded a perfect save against the Yankees. The lone poor outing shouldn't affect his value at all. Boston Red Sox Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In) Key setup men: Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Hideki Okajima Although he's only pitched twice thus far, Papelbon has already reminded his owners just how good he is. In his second outing of the season, Papelbon entered a one-run game with the tying run at third and the go-ahead run on first with one out in the eighth inning. The 26-year-old struck out Michael Young and then got Mark Teixeira to pop out to end the rally. He followed that up with a perfect ninth, recording his second save of the season. Chicago Cubs Closer: Ryan Dempster (Secure) Key setup men: Bob Howry, Kerry Wood (DL), Scott Eyre It's been awhile since Dempster has looked this good. After struggling through most of the second half last year, the Cubs' closer has bounced back to an impressive start in 2007. Dempster has recorded two saves while striking out five and not allowing a hit in three innings thus far. He remains likely to be inconsistent over the course of a season and its still quite possible he'll lose the job at some point, but he's fine to use for now. Chicago White Sox Closer: Bobby Jenks (Secure) Key setup men: Mike MacDougal, Matt Thornton, Nick Masset Manager Ozzie Guillen's comments about potentially using Thornton to close with Jenks not throwing hard enough turned out to be bogus, and it's likely that Guillen was just trying to motivate his hefty closer. Jenks blew a one-run lead and took a loss on Monday, but he hasn't allowed a run in any of his other five appearances thus far. He remains a risky option over the long haul, but there's plenty of short-term job security here. Cincinnati Reds Closer: David Weathers (Shaky), Mike Stanton (Shaky) Key setup men: Todd Coffey, Jon Coutlangus The Reds have generated two save opportunities thus far, with both of them going to Weathers. He converted both saves by throwing scoreless innings of work. Weathers then took a loss after giving up a run in a tie game in the 11th inning against the Diamondbacks, but this was after he had thrown a scoreless 10th inning. He remains the favorite for saves, with Stanton figuring to vulture a fair number of the opportunities. It remains to be seen if Coutlangus would get any opportunities, as the club had alluded to previously. Cleveland Indians Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure) Key setup men: Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera After giving up two runs on Opening Day, Borowski has gone 2-for-2 in save opportunities. However, neither appearance has been all that pretty. In the first, he walked two batters and barely escaped without allowing any runs. In the second, he gave up a run and was later saved by Erick Aybar being caught stealing to end the game. It'll take more than a few sub par outings for Borowski to lose the job, so he remains secure for now. Colorado Rockies Closer: Brian Fuentes (Secure) Key setup men: LaTroy Hawkins, Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez Another veteran off to a slow start, Fuentes has struggled in each of his last two outings. He gave up two runs in the first, but managed to pick up a save anyway. In the second outing, Fuentes gave up one run in a non-save situation. Neither should affect his value much. Detroit Tigers Closer: Todd Jones (Secure) Key setup men: Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Wilfredo Ledezma No controversy to see here. Jones has thrown five scoreless innings thus far, notching saves in all four of his opportunities. Zumaya will have to wait his chance. Florida Marlins Closer: Henry Owens (Shaky), Jorge Julio (Shaky) Key setup men: Taylor Tankersley (DL), Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg The Marlins haven't announced a change in the closer's role, but it's all but assumed that Julio is out of the job for now. Manager Fredi Gonzalez refused to commit to the veteran when asked about the situation, and Owens is the favorite to replace Julio after already being used in close and late situations this season. Julio could be given another chance to redeem himself and might get the job back eventually, so he can't be dropped yet. In the meantime, Owens is worth picking up in all formats until this situation is a bit clearer. Given that Owens, Julio, and even Tankersley are candidates to close over the rest of the season, selling high on Owens might be a good idea after he notches a few saves. If not, utilizing this bullpen will require constant monitoring and associated transactions. Houston Astros Closer: Dan Wheeler (Secure) Key setup men: Chad Qualls, Brad Lidge, Trevor Miller Lidge was listed as being in danger when this report came out last week, and he was predictably booted from save situations shortly thereafter. Although he still has the stuff to dominate, Lidge has a lot to prove before he's able to reassume ninth inning duties. It's possible he'll return to the role later in the year, but if Wheeler is performing as well as he has in a setup role the past few seasons, there will be no reason to make the change. Wheeler isn't off to the best start himself, squandering an eighth inning lead last week and then blowing his first second save opportunity after being anointed closer. Neither is of much long-term concern, and Wheeler has top 10 closer potential. If the Wheeler owner in your league isn't comfortable valuing the right-hander as a legitimate closer, take advantage and make a deal. Kansas City Royals Closer: Octavio Dotel (DL), David Riske (Filling-in) Key setup men: Joel Peralta, Joakim Soria Riske has received two save opportunities while filling in for Dotel, successfully converting the first and then blowing the second by allowing a three-run homer to Tiger catcher Ivan Rodriguez. Riske took the loss in that second outing. He'll act as closer until Dotel returns, although that date is somewhat up in the air now with Dotel's oblique still bothering him. Los Angeles Angels Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In) Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Darren Oliver It turned out that the substance on K-Rod's hat last week was resin, and the right-hander was supposedly cleared of any wrong-doing. It's not something that should affect his value, and Rodriguez has put it behind himself by successfully closing all four opportunities he's been given. Los Angeles Dodgers Closer: Takashi Saito (Secure) Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Rudy Seanez Saito was a candidate to regress in 2007 after a superb 2006 campaign, but nobody has told him that. He's given up one run in 4 2/3 innings while striking out five and recording four saves. The longer he goes without big leaguers figuring out his fastball-slider combination the more confidence you can have in his future projections. Milwaukee Brewers Closer: Francisco Cordero (Secure) Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva It was a slow start to the season for Cordero, who pitched only twice until Wednesday night. Then on Wednesday, Cordero closed out the remainder of the previous day's game in the early evening and then saved the second Brewers-Marlins contest of the day later that night. Minnesota Twins Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In) Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek Nathan has been perfect thus far, throwing four scoreless innings and recording three saves. There are few surer bets in baseball for consistent excellence. New York Mets Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In) Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, Ambiorix Burgos A poor finish to the spring hasn't hurt Wagner, as he's thrown three scoreless innings and picked up a save thus far. Rookie Joe Smith is impressing in the early going, having thrown five scoreless through Wednesday's action. He could end the year second or third in line. New York Yankees Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In) Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino Do we even need to have a Yankees' section when it comes to closers? There's nobody more predictably dominant than Rivera, and the job is his even if he were to blow ten straight saves. The future Hall of Famer hasn't recorded a save yet, but he does have a vulture win in three scoreless innings. Oakland Athletics Closer: Huston Street (Locked In) Key setup men: Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Alan Embree The season started well enough for Street, picking up two saves and a win entering Wednesday night. However, last night Street entered a tie game in the top of the ninth and promptly surrendered three runs on three walks and a pair of hits. It's nothing to be concerned with. Philadelphia Phillies Closer: Tom Gordon (Locked In) Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Jon Lieber Gordon has only pitched once since the last column, protecting a three-run lead against the Mets on Wednesday night to pick up his first save of the season. Although he blew a save in his second appearance of the year, he's looked fine thus far. Pittsburgh Pirates Closer: Salomon Torres (Secure) Key setup men: Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss, It was a fast and productive start for Torres, who saved four games in four outings during the season's first week. However, the tides have turned quickly on Torres, who blew a two-run lead against the Cardinals on Tuesday and then suffered a loss after allowing one run to break a tie game on Wednesday. The poor recent outings won't change Torres' secure hold of the job. San Diego Padres Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell Four appearances, no runs, two saves, and one win. That sounds about right for the all-time save leader. San Francisco Giants Closer: Armando Benitez (Secure) Key setup men: Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Jonathan Sanchez Benitez gave up a two-run homer to Adrian Gonzalez on Tuesday, but the Giants had a three-run lead at the time and he was able to preserve the win despite the long ball. Benitez has walked two and given up four hits in 2 1/3 innings of work to date. It'd take quite a string of poor outings to get him removed from the closer's role given the rest of the club's options. Seattle Mariners Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In) Key setup men: Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo, Brandon Morrow Poor weather conditions have left the Mariners with just five games played thus far. Putz has pitched in two of those games, although neither was a save situation. St. Louis Cardinals Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In) Key setup men: Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer There was some thought in the off-season that Isringhausen wouldn't be ready for Opening Day, but those fears have been put to rest through two weeks. The veteran right-hander has made four appearances in the early going, giving up one run and picking up three saves in the process. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Closer: Al Reyes (Secure) Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Ruddy Lugo, Juan Salas I'm changing Reyes to secure after a strong first two weeks, with the understanding that he could drop to shaky with a poor handful of outings. Reyes gets the promotion because he's looked strong in his first three appearances, collecting two saves and allowing just one baserunner. The right-hander has earned the right to be given a little slack given his strong performances to date and impressive track record. The rest of the bullpen remains worth monitoring closely, especially Juan Salas and Brian Stokes, but it's Reyes' job to lose now. Texas Rangers Closer: Eric Gagne (DL), Akinori Otsuka (Filling-in) Key setup men: Joaquin Benoit, C.J. Wilson The Rangers haven't needed him much yet, but Otsuka has done well by not allowing a run in any of this three appearances. However, Gagne is set to come off the disabled list on Friday, and manager Ron Washington has already stated that he'll be given closing duties right away. Those in deep leagues will want to hold on to Otsuka anyway, given that Gagne is no sure thing in terms of health or production. Toronto Blue Jays Closer: B.J. Ryan (Locked In) Key setup men: Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo, Shaun Marcum Ryan is 3-for-4 in save opportunities, with the lone blown save coming when Ryan gave up three runs on five hits against the Devil Rays last week. He's allowed just one baserunner outside of that appearance and remains a top 5 closer. Washington Nationals Closer: Chad Cordero (Locked In) Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Ryan Wagner, Jesus Colome The Nationals are off to a woeful 1-8 start, and their only win required a three-run comeback in the bottom of the ninth against the struggling Jorge Julio. Intelligent fans can't say they didn't see this coming, and Cordero is going to have problems finding games to save as a result. If you own Cordero, the best-case scenario is that he pitches well anyway and is dealt to a better team in June or July. |
| | |
| | #81 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The 2007 Tuffy Awards The first week of the season produces some wonderful anomalies on the stat sheet: Vladimir Guerrero on pace for 234 RBI; Felix Hernandez on pace for 420 strikeouts; Hanley Ramirez on pace to score 208 runs; Salomon Torres on pace to rack up 78 saves. Of course, it's laughable to think that the fast starters will continue to dominate opponents the same way over the rest of the regular season. But don't tell that to fantasy owners, who are often more than willing to cut an established veteran just so they can grab a .600-hitting slap hitter off their league's waiver wire. To guard against such irrational exuberance, we're here to hand out our annual Tuffy Awards. In the spirit of Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes, who hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden on opening day 1994 and then faded into fantasy oblivion, we present the first-week performances that are least likely to continue the rest of the season. Before we get to this year's winner, here are a few first-week surprises to whet your appetite. Unlikely to continue Mark Ellis among the league leaders in RBI. The A's second baseman had just three hits (and an OPS of .596) but eight RBI after five games before a two-hit game Sunday. Mike Napoli as a stolen base threat. In 99 games as a rookie last season, the Angels catcher stole two bases in five attempts. Just because he swiped a base in the opener, don't confuse him with Jason Kendall in his prime. Albert Pujols hitting below the Mendoza line. A 1-for-17 start to the season saw Phat Albert's average drop to a bare-bones .059 before he went 2-for-5 with a home run Sunday. Pujols was still hitting .136 after the game, but good luck if you think that'll persuade another owner to trade him to you. Same goes for David Ortiz (.217), Michael Young (.154), Andruw Jones (.130) and Lance Berkman (.190). Could continue Young arms racking up the strikeouts. In their first starts of the season, Felix Hernandez (12 Ks), Ian Snell (11), Jason Hirsh (8) and Zack Greinke (7) demonstrated excellent command in addition to an ability to finish off hitters with two strikes. Adam Dunn hitting for a higher average. Dunn's elevation in the Reds order paid immediate dividends on opening day when he slugged two homers. He hit .317 in the No. 2 spot last season, and he's getting some good pitches to hit so far this season. The envelope, please And now it's time for our feature presentation, the Tuffy. Second runner-up: Robinson Tejeda, Rangers. Pitching seven innings of shutout ball against the potent Red Sox offense is quite impressive. Allowing only two hits over those seven innings is even more so. But what are the chances Tejeda can manage similar stats the next time he only strikes out one batter and records 16 of the other 20 outs on fly balls? The winds of change are about to blow in Arlington, and those fly balls will start blossoming into home runs. First runner-up: Dmitri Young, Nationals. If he didn't have the career rιsumι to back up his early success, Young would have been the perfect choice as this year's Tuffy. Just two seasons ago, Young matched Rhodes' feat to become only the third player in history to hit three homers on opening day. (Trivia answer: Toronto's George Bell was the first in 1988.) After winning not only a roster spot but a starting job as well, Young has been one of the Nationals' most productive hitters with an RBI in the team's first four games. Injuries and off-field issues kept him sidelined for most of last season and there's no guarantee that injuries won't be a problem again this year. Young is also a liability at first base, something the Nats can't afford with their shaky pitching staff. Plus, the expected return of Nick Johnson a couple months down the road will leave Young without a position. He may be a popular first-week pickup off the free agent wire, but unless you're able to trade him soon, Young will grow old on your bench. And the Tuffy goes to It's easy to criticize the Royals' decision to sign Gil Meche to a big-money contract in the offseason, but Meche quieted the critics by limiting those powerful Red Sox hitters to just one run in 7 1/3 innings on opening day to earn his first win. Meche surrendered six earned runs in seven innings in his second start (against the Tigers), but he still probably would have been a great sleeper candidate this season had he signed just about anywhere but Kansas City. Even though this Royals team has some talent in its everyday lineup, the bullpen is still suspect, which will keep Meche from winning any more than a dozen games this season. Meche wasn't even the biggest surprise for the Royals. Shortstop Tony Pena Jr. whacked a pair of triples in three at-bats on opening day. He also scored two runs and drove in another to spark the K.C. offense. Not bad for a player the Royals acquired just days before the start of the season to be an emergency starter at shortstop in place of the struggling Angel Berroa. But those first-week stats with an impressive .571 slugging percentage mask the fact that there's not much upside to Pena, even if he does get full-time at-bats with the Royals. In 44 at-bats last season with Atlanta, Pena hit .227. He's a .252 career hitter in the minor leagues. With so many other capable shortstops around, one hot week isn't going to elevate Pena into very many fantasy lineups. So when it comes to adding this year's Tuffy Award winner to your roster, the advice is simple: No Pena it's a no-brainer. |
| | |
| | #82 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Waiver Wired: Lidge Out The baseball season is about 5-6% over for most teams, yet like clockwork, fantasy owners are panicking. My teams, packed to the brim with Mark Teahens and Kelly Johnsons, are hitting about .200. Can't resist must drop Lance Berkman for Akinori Iwamura admit it, you have that little devil guy on your shoulder telling you to do this. But you have to fight it, and instead make strategic pickups that do make sense. That's what Waiver Wired is for. Let's just hope ESPN doesn't wipe out another week's worth of claims. From now on, this column will come out on Fridays before noon CST. Sorry about the confusion. This super-expanded edition covers April 3rd through April 12th. I think I did OK last week, naming guys like Zack Greinke, Matt Belisle, and Chris Sampson while cautioning against some others. American League Jeremy Guthrie, RP, BAL The Indians picked the hard-throwing righty 22nd overall out of Stanford back in '02. There was a time when he was the 53rd best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America (2004). They liked him more than John Maine, Bobby Jenks, Scott Olsen, Jason Bay, Nick Markakis, or Matt Cain. He hit a wall in Triple A, but finally conquered the level last year. Claimed off waivers by the Orioles, Guthrie made the club as a long reliever following a nice spring. He's the top candidate to replace the injured Jaret Wright in the rotation, and may be a late bloomer who flourishes under Leo Mazzone. I'd add him to my bench in a deep AL-only to see what comes of this. AL: $2, Mixed: No. Joakim Soria, RP, KCA The Royals swiped him from the Padres in the Rule 5, so he'll be in their pen all year. This isn't your mother's Rule 5 pick Soria is now closing for the Royals with David Riske ineffective and Octavio Dotel hurt. The 23-year-old hits his spots and has five strikeouts and one save in five scoreless innings so far. Dotel will return on April 20th at the earliest, and could be out until May. AL: $12, Mixed: $4. David DeJesus, OF, KCA Just wanted to point out that DeJesus is hitting .378 with seven runs and a pair of homers in nine games so far. If he finally stays healthy all year, he could hit .300 with 100 runs scored. He's still on some mixed league waiver wires and should be picked up. AL: $28, Mixed: $13. Alex Gordon, 3B, KCA The Next Big Thing is only 3 for 29 on the young season. Did I mention it's a young season? He had his first home run this week and will improve as the season goes along. Remember, he skipped Triple A. Hang on to him if you've got him and pilfer him if you don't. AL: $30, Mixed: $15. Dustin Moseley, SP, LAA The 25-year-old Moseley is the Angels' seventh starter. In two efforts this year he allowed just two runs in twelve innings. He'll still be demoted when Jered Weaver returns next week, and his Triple A work hasn't impressed to date. This was a nice trade showcase but I don't see him helping in AL-only anymore. AL: $1, Mixed: No. Joe Kennedy, SP, OAK A fine start for Kennedy as Oakland's fifth starter. He's allowed two runs in eleven innings. It's not known yet whether he or Chad Gaudin will be skipped next week, but my guess is that it's Gaudin. Kennedy has a shot at respectable AL-only numbers if he limits his free passes and stays healthy for 30 starts. He could get you ten wins. AL: $9, Mixed: No. Chad Gaudin, SP, OAK Gaudin's been nearly as good as Kennedy, and he doesn't have to worry about Esteban Loaiza returning for at least a month. A 4.50 ERA with some strikeouts is not out of the question. AL: $6, Mixed: No. Dan Johnson, 1B, OAK Johnson could return this month from his hip injury. He makes a fine CI in AL-only, so keep him on your radar as a possible .450 SLG guy. AL: $10, Mixed: No. Ramon Ortiz, SP, MIN Ortiz has surprisingly allowed just three runs in 15 innings against the Orioles and Yankees this year, making the Twins look less dumb for signing him. I still feel that all the Johan Santana-taught changeups in the world can't keep his ERA under 5 this year. I wouldn't risk it in mixed leagues but may take a peek in AL-only. AL: $8, Mixed: No. Josh Rabe, OF, MIN The 28 year-old minor league vet brings little to the table, but could get some at-bats while Rondell White does what he does best (hang around on the DL). I'm still not buying in AL-only. AL: $1, Mixed: No. Alexi Casilla, IF, MIN Casilla is so similar to a young Luis Castillo that it's eerie. I heard Casilla even tries to dress like Castillo. Anyway, Casilla's going to be a pretty sweet fantasy MI one day when he becomes a full-timer (.300 average, tons of steals). He's a bench guy in Minnesota while Jeff Cirillo is out, and perhaps worthy of a spot on your AL-only roster. AL: $2, Mixed: No. Melky Cabrera, OF, NYA The Melk Man isn't hitting much to date, but is noteworthy in fantasy as a regular member of the Yankee lineup for the next ten days or so while Hideki Matsui is out. No shame in activating him in AL-only during that time. AL: $12, Mixed: No. Al Reyes, RP, TBA As expected, the cream has risen to the top of the Rays' pen and Reyes is the official closer. They say he can't go back-to-back nights yet because of October 2005 TJ surgery. Regardless, he should be good for 20+ saves and should be owned in all leagues. AL: $25, Mixed: $15. Jonny Gomes, DH, TBA Time to kick Gomes to the curb in your mixed league. Joe Maddon just refuses to play him despite the 30 HR potential. He was a minor investment in the first place, but it's frustrating. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Akinori Iwamura, TBA Despite a rough spring, Iwamura is cruising in his rookie season. He's 12 for 29 with three steals. This offseason, he set several goals: 20 HR, 40 SB, and the ROY. Realistically think more like 15 HR, 25 steals, and a third-place ROY finish. But he will keep running and should be owned in all leagues. In fact, all the Devil Rays are running under Joe Maddon. AL: $25, Mixed: $12. Akinori Otsuka, RP, TEX Otsuka can't be amused that Eric Gagne will be thrust directly into the closer role in Texas. With Gagne having thrown 15 innings over the past two seasons, Otsuka owners should definitely keep him around on the bench for the inevitable Gagne DL stint. AL: $14, Mixed: $7. Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR Hill is off to a blazing start at 12 for 31 with five doubles so far. Who knows, maybe he sneaks into the leadoff role somehow. He may be available in your mixed league and could hit .300 with 15 home runs in the best case. AL: $20, Mixed: $9. National League Carlos Quentin, OF, ARI Quentin could come off the DL as early as Tuesday from a labrum injury. His power, already just OK for a fantasy outfielder, could suffer a bit. Still, a 20 HR bat is useful in most leagues so snag him if he was ignored because of the injury. NL: $20, Mixed: $9. Micah Owings, SP, ARI Owings jumped out to a hot start this year, allowing only two runs in eleven innings with eleven strikeouts. Much is made of his 10-0 Triple A record last year, but he's not overpowering. Owings has a chance to remain the fifth starter when Randy Johnson returns, which will probably happen April 19th or 24th. Owings doesn't look like mixed league material this year but certainly should be owned in NL-only. NL: $10, Mixed: No. Alberto Callaspo, OF, ARI Callaspo has been playing quite a bit as the D'Backs multi-purpose utility guy, and he's hitting .310. I wonder if that hollow batting average is going to steal at-bats from Chris Young here and there once Young returns from a mild groin strain. Callaspo really just offers the average and multi-position eligibility to NL-only players. NL: $9, Mixed: No. Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL A .179 average is far from pretty, but Johnson's scored at least one run in all but one game he's started. The Braves' leadoff man is still a good candidate for 20 HR and 100 runs, and how many of those do you find at second base? He should be able to hit .270 this year. Don't let him linger on the wire in your mixed league. NL: $22, Mixed: $10. Matt Belisle, SP, CIN Fantasy leaguers start to notice after two solid starts, and Belisle's got a pair of six inning, one run performances under his belt. He's worth a look against the Brewers next week and could post an ERA in the low 4s with double digit wins if things break right. NL: $10, Mixed: No. Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN Keith Law, in yesterday's chat at ESPN: "It's two home runs. Let's all settle down." Klaw has a good point in that Hamilton hasn't faced live pitching for years and he's playing at the highest level. If you can bench him through the hard times, he deserves consideration in a keeper league. Otherwise, he's already owned in your NL-only and doesn't merit non-keeper mixed league consideration. NL: $8, Mixed: No. Jeff Baker, 1B/OF, COL Baker is a solid bat who could probably knock 25 HR given a full-time job, just like Brad Hawpe last year. Unless a Todd Helton trade starts to come together or injury strikes, Baker doesn't fit in a mixed league. He's a fine NL-only supporting player though. NL: $9, Mixed: No. Jason Hirsh, SP, COL An eight strikeout performance against the Padres to start the season opened some eyes. But then he was just OK against the Dodgers and those eyes started squinting. I'd pass in a mixed league but he's a decent choice when on the road for NL-only. NL: $8, Mixed: No. Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA The Tank was activated from the DL yesterday after dealing with shoulder tendinitis. He won't jump directly into the saves mix, but the team would like him to emerge as the closer. Worth stashing in any league, though I don't think he'll make a good closer with his control. NL: $10, Mixed: No. Henry Owens, RP, FLA Owens is likely owned in all leagues. He is essentially the Marlins' closer until he falters. So far he's posted seven scoreless innings with just two hits. He could certainly keep the job all year. NL: $16, Mixed: $10. Jorge Julio, RP, FLA Julio has officially lost the closer job, and despite his salary I don't think the Fish will turn back to him. He's already blown two saves and given up runs in three of his five appearances. No matter what skills are there, a man can only be allowed to fail in one role so many times. If Owens and Tankersley fail, I'd put Matt Lindstrom and Kevin Gregg ahead of Julio. NL: No, Mixed: No. Rick Vanden Hurk, SP, FLA The 22-year-old Dutch hurler and TJ survivor debuted in the Majors this week, allowing just one run in 4.2 innings. Never having pitched above A ball, his control is going to be an issue. He'll probably get another start or two but isn't a smart gamble in NL-only. NL: No, Mixed: No. Brad Lidge, RP, HOU Some say it was unfair to demote Lidge from the closer role after two rough performances. Talk about a short leash. I know folks think he has a good chance to regain the gig but I don't see it. His replacement is perfectly capable of pitching the ninth inning. Closers are fungible enough where I don't feel that Lidge is worth the bench space in a mixed league. He should probably have an NL-only spot for the strikeouts though. NL: $6, Mixed: No. Dan Wheeler, RP, HOU As I said, Wheeler is a perfectly capable closer. Yes, he struggled last time out, but that was his third day in a row pitching. His numbers since 2005: 2.54 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.4 K/9. He should be fine. NL: $22, Mixed: $12. Brad Penny, SP, LAN Shoulder stiffness and a lousy spring left Penny undrafted in a lot of mixed leagues. He's capable of a pretty good first half, as evidenced by his 0.68 ERA in 13 innings. He should be owned everywhere until his performance dictates otherwise. NL: $16, Mixed: $8. Wilson Betemit, 3B, LAN I thought Betemit might come into 25 HR power this year as the Dodgers' regular third baseman. Instead, he's 1 for 19 and could start losing at-bats to Wilson Valdez. This was his best shot at becoming a regular, so the timing couldn't be worse. NL: $7, Mixed: No. Andre Ethier, OF, LAN With Matt Kemp out, Ethier has right field all to himself. A 2 for 17 start isn't inspiring confidence though, and James Loney could replace him. NL: $8, Mixed: No. Wilson Valdez, SS, LAN Valdez's claim to fame thus far was being traded for Billy Koch in 2004. After that he bounced through a ton of organizations and finally found an opportunity with the Dodgers because of Rafael Furcal's injury. He's batting .368, but anyone can string together three good games. The Dodgers might wait until he cools down before setting him free. The benefits to you in NL-only might be speed and a hollow batting average (he rarely strikes out). NL: $4, Mixed: No. Claudio Vargas, SP, MIL Vargas whiffed nine Marlins in his first start as a Brewer this week. That tied a career-high, but doesn't change his overall projection. Decent strikeout rate, middling ratios, ten wins. Already owned in NL-only and not worthy of mixed. NL: $14, Mixed: $1. Geoff Jenkins, OF, MIL Jenkins is one of baseball's streakiest hitters. Pick him up in your mixed league if you can and ride it out. He's hitting .400 with three homers and playing regularly. We saw this last September. Don't be afraid to cut him when he cools off. NL: $17, Mixed: $7. Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYN Pelfrey makes his season debut against the Nationals today, so he's primed for success. He may need some time to develop in the Majors but still profiles as a #1 starter. It seems the hype has died down in some areas of the country, so pick him up in your mixed league. NL: $10, Mixed: $2. Kip Wells, SP, STL Two runs in 13 innings is a great way to start the season. 14 strikeouts, too. I think the best case scenario is 175 innings, 12 wins, and a 3.90 ERA. If anyone can get it out of him, it's Dave Duncan. NL: $15, Mixed: $5. Randy Keisler, SP, STL Keisler, a journeyman southpaw, debuted in 2000 as a sub for David Cone on the Yankees. His claim to fame used to be an 18 strikeout game in Triple A in 2001, until he went on the DL in 2002 for being bitten by a snake. Seriously, you can't make this stuff up. The Cards rescued him from the scrap heap and have him filling in for Chris Carpenter. His first start was solid, but he faced the Pirates. He'll draw the Bucs again on Monday, so desperate NL-only folks can give it a shot. NL: $1, Mixed: No. Rob Bowen, C, SDN Josh Bard just hit the DL with a groin strain, making Bowen the full-time catcher for a couple of weeks. It's been a while since the 26 year-old Bowen showed any power or average, so he should only be considered in the deepest of two-catcher NL-only leagues. NL: $2, Mixed: No. Jason Bergmann, SP, WAS According to Baseball America, Bergmann's career took off when he switched to relief in 2004. He has a power arsenal with three different pitches. The Nats have him starting again now, and he gave them a much-needed win last night. In six innings, Bergmann allowed just one hit and struck out eight Braves, though he walked four. That'll be enough to hold his rotation spot for another turn or two. He's got good stuff and could be a deep NL-only sleeper. NL: $3, Mixed: No. |
| | |
| | #83 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Weaver Set to Return Jered Weaver racked up seven strikeouts while tossing seven shutout innings at Single-A Wednesday, ending talk of him needing additional minor-league rehab work before returning from the disabled list. He's expected to join the Angels Friday and is scheduled to make his season debut Monday against the Red Sox. Asked if the team has done more than "pencil Weaver in" for Monday's start, manager Mike Scioscia said that he'll get the nod "unless he shows up in a sling." Weaver's return to the rotation means that Dustin Moseley is likely headed back to Triple-A despite back-to-back impressive (and nearly identical) starts against the A's (6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 SO) and Indians (6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 SO). Joe Saunders is the favorite to remain in the rotation as Bartolo Colon's replacement, although the Angels could decide that Moseley is worth keeping around for a while as a long reliever. Moseley has looked fantastic this season, but he got knocked around in a brief stint with the Angels last year and his minor-league track record is far from impressive. Making 26 starts at Triple-A last season, he posted a 4.69 ERA and 114-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 149.2 innings, serving up 18 homers and a total of 164 hits. If Colon looks healthy once he returns and the Angels prefer Saunders over Moseley, they might look to deal him with his value peaking. While Angels fans and Weaver owners hope he can pick up right where he left off last season, here are some other notes from around baseball * Seemingly replaying a sad and now annual tradition, Mark Prior left his start in extended spring training Thursday after two innings because of shoulder soreness. He's reportedly scheduled to be examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum, who's no doubt incredibly familiar with Prior's injury history at this point. After Prior struggled in camp, the Cubs' plan was to let him work his way back in extended spring training, before sending him to Triple-A to officially begin his comeback. Instead, Prior's season might be over before it even started. A visit with Yocum often precedes going under the knife, and if surgery is required Prior's career could be in jeopardy. Wade Miller's early struggles in Chicago left the door open for Prior, but his health has again made a comeback impossible. Once a worthwhile risk as fantasy's version of a lottery ticket, Prior is so far removed from dominating big-league hitters that the potential reward is a rapidly vanishing mystery. * With Mike Pelfrey set to join the starting rotation Friday, the Mets made room on the roster by optioning Lastings Milledge to Triple-A. To Milledge's credit, he handled the demotion well after receiving a total of just three at-bats in two weeks with the team. "I'm going to go and work on what I'm going to be for the Mets for the next 15 years," Milledge said. "At least when I get the call back up, whenever it is, I'll be playing every day." Barring an injury, Milledge will likely remain at Triple-A until the Mets decide they've seen enough of Shawn Green as an everyday player, although his strong start to the season likely pushes that timetable back. Meanwhile, Pelfrey is scheduled to debut against the Nationals, which is the perfect way for a young pitcher to begin the season. Pelfrey gave up three runs over five innings in a tune-up start at Single-A, but should be in the majors to stay this time. * While throwing a bullpen session Thursday in extended spring training, Octavio Dotel suffered yet another setback in his recovery from a strained left oblique muscle. The Royals had been hoping that Dotel could return on April 20, but that now looks unlikely. He's scheduled to undergo an MRI Friday, with manager Buddy Bell saying, "Right now, we really don't know when he's going to be back that's obviously discouraging." Dotel's continued inability to get healthy means Joakim Soria should get an extended look as the Royals' closer. The Rule 5 pick, who I strongly recommended as a fantasy pickup in this space earlier this week, has already impressed Bell enough to move ahead of both David Riske and Joel Peralta on the bullpen depth chart. "With the way that Soria has thrown, we'll probably keep him closer to the end than the other two," Bell said. AL Quick Hits: General manager Brian Cashman said Thursday that "it's too early to tell" if Mike Mussina (hamstring) will be placed on the disabled list, but Darrell Rasner will start in his place Tuesday against the Indians Manager Eric Wedge said Thursday that Victor Martinez (quadriceps) could return this weekend Gil Meche injured his hamstring Thursday and could miss his next start, with Brian Bannister the likely replacement With Todd Jones getting the night off Thursday after pitching in four games over five days, Joel Zumaya picked up a two-inning save In a move that shocked absolutely no one, Jaret Wright (shoulder) has been placed on the DL The Andrew Miller Watch in Detroit can probably be put on hold for a while after he coughed up four runs in 5.2 innings Wednesday at Single-A Rained washed away Wily Mo Pena's first scheduled start and manager Terry Francona said afterward that he wasn't sure when Pena would actually get into the lineup. NL Quick Hits: Trainer Stan Conte said that Rafael Furcal (ankle) "looked pretty good" Thursday and is expected to return to the lineup Friday night With Josh Bard (groin) heading to the disabled list Thursday, Rob Bowen figures to get regular at-bats behind the plate for the next two weeks Taylor Tankersley (shoulder) returned from the DL Thursday, but likely won't be used in save situations unless Henry Owens falters With his victory Thursday against the Phillies, Tom Glavine is just eight wins from No. 300 Unlikely as it may be, Jimmy Rollins took Glavine deep twice Thursday to become the NL's first five-homer man Mike Hampton (shoulder) confirmed that he's planning to pitch in 2008 after going through what will be a long, difficult comeback following two straight lost seasons Chris Sampson (calf) said Thursday that he doesn't expect to miss his next start. |
| | |
| | #84 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| AL Team-by-Team Notes Felix Hernandez may very well be baseball's best pitcher with the way he's throwing now, but I do worry, especially since he's thrown 111 pitches each time out. In 2006, he reached that total three times in 31 starts. The Mariners want him to be their ace, and it looks like they're prepared to use him like one, even if it means leaving him out there to throw 120+ pitches every once in a while. As long as Hernandez keeps pitching this well, he'll probably continue to average 110 pitches per outing. The 21-year-old figures to wear down if kept at that pace, and the already substantial likelihood of injury gets that much greater. I'm not saying sell now, but for those not in keeper leaguers, it might make sense to part with him come June 1. American League Notes Baltimore - Jaret Wright's first trip of the year to the DL with a sore right shoulder hasn't opened the door for Hayden Penn, who is experiencing some forearm soreness. Instead, middle reliever Jeremy Guthrie will get the start on Sunday. Wright could be back within two weeks, but no AL-only leaguers should have to resort to using him. Guthrie also isn't very interesting for fantasy purposes. Kevin Millar's recent hot streak will help keep him in the lineup when Jay Payton (hamstring) returns this week. Payton and Millar should probably share time against right-handers, with the hotter hand getting the nod. Both will play against lefties, with either Jay Gibbons or Corey Patterson taking a seat. Ideally, both Gibbons and Patterson would be platooned, with Payton in center, Millar DHing and either Jon Knott or Jason Dubois playing left field. The Orioles just need to create room on the roster. Knott is the candidate to be called up this week, as Dubois remains sidelined with a hamstring strain. Ramon Hernandez (oblique) won't return Sunday as hoped, but he should be OK to have active in AL-only leagues this week. Boston - Wily Mo Pena and Eric Hinske have combined for just nine at-bats so far. The Red Sox will be happy they have both once J.D. Drew or someone else lands on the DL, but they need to keep them sharp. Coco Crisp deserves to lose playing time to Pena with the way he's performed so far. The Red Sox were open to dealing Hinske during the spring and probably still are. A trade to Minnesota would make all kinds of sense if the Twins realized they needed him, and with Scott Baker clearly out of favor within the organization, they would seem to have just the bait to get a deal done. Devern Hansack's second straight 10-strikeout game at Triple-A Pawtucket last week puts pressure on Julian Tavarez to turn in a good outing on Monday. The Red Sox would benefit from making a switch, and Hansack has turned into a real sleeper in AL-only leagues. Chicago - Juan Uribe has gotten off to just the kind of start he needed to guarantee that he didn't lose one or two starts per week to Alex Cintron. Even while hitting at the bottom of the lineup, Uribe has the power to be of some use in shallow mixed leagues, at least until he cools off. Of course, despite his inconsistency from month to month, he has driven in70 runs in three straight years. Since Darin Erstad is hitless in 14 at-bats and without an extra-base knock since Opening Day, Brian Anderson could make his second start on Sunday. The current arrangement can't last forever. Either Anderson needs to get more at-bats over Erstad or he should be in Triple-A playing regularly. The former scenario seems more likely to play out than it did a couple of weeks ago. Erstad is best suited to being a fourth outfielder right now. Cleveland - Getting Jake Westbrook for $33 million over three years almost qualifies as a bargain for the Indians, given that he would have earned at least $12 million per year for four or five seasons on the open market. Still, unless ownership is willing to open up the purse strings and bump the payroll up to nine figures by 2009, the Indians may eventually regret tying up so much money in a No. 3 starter. Travis Hafner and C.C. Sabathia are both free agents after 2008. The commitment to Westbrook suggests that one of the two won't still be with the team in two years. Sabathia is the better bet to go. As bare as the pitching market will be next winter, the Indians would be smart to make him available in trade if they don't think they can sign him. Victor Martinez (hamstring) is due back in the lineup as early as Sunday, though he may DH initially. He should be active in leagues this week. Cliff Lee (abdomen) is expected to make at least two more rehab starts, giving Fausto Carmona another week in the rotation. Detroit - Chad Durbin was roughed up again on Saturday and is sporting a 12.46 ERA after two starts. His career ERA in 58 starts and 22 relief appearances as a major leaguer is 6.29, so there just isn't any reason for the Tigers to demonstrate patience with him. If they think Andrew Miller is still a month away, they could go to Jason Grilli or Wilfredo Ledezma. After pitching three innings Saturday, Grilli is probably in better position to go five or six innings in a start. However, Ledezma is the more interesting pitcher and would be a worthy pickup in AL-only leagues if he gets the nod. With two wins already, he's not a bad use of a roster spot anyway. Omar Infante didn't see any action in the Tigers' first 10 games before getting a start in place of Placido Polanco on Saturday. Still just 25 and coming off a season in which he hit .277/.325/.415 in 224 at-bats, Infante is good enough to play regularly for a handful of teams. He certainly deserves better than being equated with Neifi Perez on the Detroit bench. A trade seemed a lot more likely to happen over the winter than it does now, so it looks like he'll be a non-factor, barring an injury to Carlos Guillen or Polanco. Kansas City - One bad pitch to Ivan Rodriguez apparently cost David Riske his role as the temporary closer to Kansas City. Rule 5 pick Joakim Soria is filling in now and likely will through the end of the month with Octavio Dotel (oblique) not recovering as hoped. Dotel threw well this spring, so there's little doubt he'll get his job back when he returns. Still, he's no sure thing, and while the Royals are paying him to close, most of his success in the majors has come as a setup man. Soria, though, is unlikely to excel all year long. All signs point to him being one of the most astute Rule 5 picks of the decade, but he's not a true closer right now. It's nice to see manager Buddy Bell doing what he can to work Esteban German in this season after spending 2006 looking for excuses not to play him. That German even got a start in the outfield last week is just more bad news for Emil Brown. With Reggie Sanders also demanding at-bats, Brown is a mediocre play in AL-only leagues right now. Gil Meche expects to make his next start despite a mild hamstring strain suffered Thursday. Los Angeles - Troubled by a sore shoulder, Kelvim Escobar was placed on the DL Friday for the fifth time since the beginning of 2005. The Angels are labeling it a precaution and saying he'll miss only two starts, but that Escobar is down again already is a bad sign. Because of the injury, Dustin Moseley will get at least one more start. With the way Moseley has thrown since the start of the spring, he's turned himself into pretty good trade bait. Still, the Angels' No. 7 starter won't be expendable if the club keeps suffering injuries like this. Jered Weaver (biceps) is no lock to have a good start Monday at Fenway in his first game back, but he's worth using in all formats immediately. Whether it's because of the groin injury or not, Shea Hillenbrand is not off to his typically strong start. Since his $6.5 million club option for 2008 kicks in with 600 plate appearances, the Angels have added incentive not to play him when he's cold. They might be a better team anyway when they have Reggie Willits in an outfield corner and either Garret Anderson or Vladimir Guerrero DHing. Minnesota - Third base, left field and maybe DH could all remain problem areas for the Twins, but shortstop probably won't be. While Jason Bartlett is slumping offensively and defensively, he deserves a long leash after his showing in the final four months of last year. Bartlett is no fantasy stud, especially not while he's batting at the bottom of the order, but he should hit .280-.290 and steal a dozen bases over the rest of the year. Still to be determined is what the Twins are going to get from Jason Kubel. He's hitting for average right now, but he didn't show any power this spring and he has just one extra-base hit so far this year. Also, he's appeared tentative on defense when used in left field. Kubel still figures to develop into a 20- or 25-homer guy, but I'm not as confident in him for this year as I was at the start of the spring. If he's still not producing come June, the Twins could seek a cheap upgrade, just like they did with Phil Nevin last year. Jason Tyner barely played last week, but he did get the start Saturday and had a big game, making it likely that he'll get the majority of the at-bats in place of Rondell White (calf) this week. White is eligible to return Friday and might be ready then. New York - Mike Mussina (hamstring) and Carl Pavano (forearm) both went down last week and are candidates for the DL, depending on how well their throwing sessions go Sunday. Darrell Rasner did a fair job Saturday in Pavano's place and could be in line for another start this week. Jeff Karstens (elbow) is also a candidate to return by the weekend. If the Yankees still need another starter during the week, Ross Ohlendorf and Chase Wright are far better bets than Phil Hughes to get the assignment. Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) will make a rehab start Thursday and then return from the DL on April 24. With Doug Mientkiewicz in an 0-for-21 start, Josh Phelps got his first start against a right-hander on Saturday. Phelps would have to catch fire right away to prevent Mientkiewicz from returning to the lineup soon. Still, don't rule it out. Phelps could hit 20 homers from the ninth spot in the lineup if he gets 400-450 at-bats. Hideki Matsui is expected to come off the DL when eligible on April 23. Oakland - In order to hit Nick Swisher second, which is where he belongs, the A's have already dropped Jason Kendall to the eighth spot in the lineup. Why Shannon Stewart keeps getting the benefit of the doubt even though Kendall has had a better OBP four years running is a mystery, but there's not enough difference between the two that the A's are really costing themselves. Kendall will probably get another look at the top of the order later. With the way Stewart is playing now, perhaps he'll be bounced from the lineup instead of Travis Buck if Dan Johnson can return from a hip injury in the first half of May. Swisher's value increases batting second, even if he has fewer RBI chances. He'll drive himself in often enough, and he might score 105-110 runs while hitting ahead of Milton Bradley and Mike Piazza. Joe Kennedy won't get another start until April 22 or 24. Chad Gaudin is due to face the Angels on Tuesday. Tampa Bay - Elijah Dukes' stock has dropped somewhat, and it has just as much to do with some shaky play in the outfield as it does his offensive slump. If he doesn't heat up soon, he may revert back into the reserve outfielder he was supposed to be at the start of the year. Dukes' struggles would seem to be good news for Jonny Gomes, but when the Rays had the DH spot open last week, they elected to go with Carlos Pena at first base and make Ty Wigginton their DH twice. They also had Wigginton at second once to make room for Pena. I'm not sure Gomes is any better of a bet than Pena, but it's absurd that he's started just one time in 11 games after he was one of the Rays' best hitters this spring. Gomes hit .282/.372/.534 as a rookie in 2005 and got off to a fantastic start last year before a shoulder injury ruined his season. Factoring in all of the numbers he put up in the minors, he's done more to earn his opportunity than practically anyone else on Tampa Bay's roster. Al Reyes has solidified himself in the closer's role by going 3-for-3 in save opps and throwing four scoreless innings so far. It also doesn't hurt that Brian Stokes has failed to impress as the primary setup man. Jae-Kuk Ryu may soon get a look in that role. Texas - Rather than easing Eric Gagne into the closer's role, Rangers manager Ron Washington went right to him in the ninth inning in a save situation on Friday and was rewarded with a scoreless inning. Gagne is supposed to be available on back-to-back days right away, though he won't pitch three days in a row. Akinori Otsuka has to be held on to in every format. Gagne hasn't had any setbacks since the beginning of spring training and he's reportedly throwing in the low-90s with regularity now, but it's not like there are any guarantees he won't be right back on the DL in two weeks. Jamey Wright's shoulder injury hardly qualifies as a blessing as disguise when everyone except the Rangers can see that the club is better off without him. Kameron Loe isn't likely to have much fantasy value while Wright is out, but if he can secure the rotation spot, he could eventually be of use in 4x4 leagues. After 11 games, Sammy Sosa has a 522 OPS in 36 AB, Brad Wilkerson has a 683 OPS in 27 AB and Nelson Cruz has a 588 OPS in 24 AB. If one of the three can get hot, the other two stand to lose of playing time, and Sosa really should be the most vulnerable to losing at-bats. The Rangers hurt themselves defensively by playing Sosa or Frank Catalanotto in the outfield. Toronto - It hasn't been a good April to be a Johnson, as Reed joined Dan, Josh, Nick and Randy on the disabled list on Friday. Fortunately, the Jays only lose on defense with Johnson resting an injured back, as Adam Lind was called up to replace him in right field. Lind, who would have been a threat to hit 25 homers this year as a regular, should be a fine AL-only outfielder while Johnson is out. While the Jays had a strong replacement ready for an outfielder, Lyle Overbay or Frank Thomas, the rest of the team is extremely shallow, which is the big reason the club just didn't project as a 90-game winner this year. The front-line talent is there, and with some good luck, they're contenders. With bad luck, they could easily lose 90. Already, the position player they can least afford to lose, Troy Glaus, has had shoulder, heel and hamstring troubles. The Jays hope to get him back Tuesday, but especially with the DH no longer available to him, he seems like a weak bet to play in 140 games this year. |
| | |
| | #85 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The Preview Keep in mind that Week 3 will have an early lineup deadline as the Red Sox host the Angels for Patriots Day Monday, starting at 10:05 a.m., but there is currently a 100 percent chance for precipitation. Along with Boston, the entire National League is scheduled for seven games this week. Dice K will get his first taste of the Yankees/Red Sox series later this week, Jered Weaver and brother Jeff Weaver could face off barring weather, former teammates John Smoltz and Tom Glavine will tangle, and Curt Schilling and Roy Halladay are also scheduled to compete against one another. With the barrage of rainouts the past week, The Week Ahead will get you up to speed on the latest two-start hurlers for week 3, the games threatened by weather, the latest with the injury bug and also run down some key statistics. Two-start pitchers: note: with the crummy weather lately, be sure to check Monday morning to see if rotations have been changed further. Great options: Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) at TOR (G. Chacin) vs NYY (TBA) Roy Oswalt (HOU) vs FLA (S. Mitre) at MIL (D. Bush) Jered Weaver (LAA) at BOS (J. Beckett) vs SEA (Jef. Weaver) Josh Beckett (BOS) vs LAA (Jer. Weaver) vs NYY (TBA) Chris Capuano (MLW) at CIN (E. Milton) vs HOU (W. Rodriguez) Greg Maddux (SD) at CHC (W. Miller) at COL (J. Hirsh) Brad Penny (LAD) at ARZ (M. Owings) vs PIT (T. Gorzelanny) Tom Glavine (NYM) at PHI (J. Moyer) vs ATL (J. Smoltz) John Smoltz (ATL) at WAS (J. Bergmann) at NYM (T. Glavine) Jon Garland (CWS) vs TEX (R. Tejeda) at DET (Verlander) Justin Verlander (DET) vs KC (Z. Grienke) vs CWS (J. Garland) Anibal Sanchez (FLA) at HOU (W. Rodriguez) vs WAS (J. Williams) Jeff Francis (COL) vs SF (M. Morris) vs SD (C. Hensley) Adam Wainwright (STL) vs PIT (T. Gorzelanny) at CHC (W. Miller) More strong options: Jamie Moyer (PHI) vs NYM (T. Glavine) at CIN (M. Belisle) Jake Westbrook (CLE) at NYY (TBA) at TB (J. Shields) Adam Eaton (PHI) vs NYM (O. Perez) at CIN (E. Milton) Gustavo Chacin (TOR) vs BOS (D. Matsuzaka) at BAL (Trachsel) Claudio Vargas (MLW) at CIN (M. Belisle) vs HOU (C. Sampson) Chuck James (ATL) at SF (J. Williams) at NYM (O. Perez) Noah Lowry (SF) at COL (J. Hirsh) vs ARZ (M. Owings) Clay Hensley (SD) at CHC (J. Marquis) at COL (J. Francis) Wade Miller (CHC) vs SD (G. Maddux) vs STL (A. Wainwright) Jason Marquis (CHC) vs SD (C. Hensley) vs STL (A. Reyes) Other two-starters: Chad Gaudin (OAK) vs LAA (J. Saunders) at TEX (R. Tejeda) Eric Milton (CIN) vs MLW (C. Capuano) vs PHI (A. Eaton) Adam Loewen (BAL) at TB (J. Shields) vs TOR (Towers) James Shields (TB) vs BAL (A. Loewen) vs CLE (J. Westbrook) Jason Hirsh (COL) vs SF (N. Lowry) vs SD (G. Maddux) Sergio Mitre (FLA) at HOU (W. Rodriguez) vs WAS (J. Bergmann) Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) vs FLA (A. Sanchez) at MLW (C. Carpenter) Robinson Tejeda (TEX) at CWS (J. Garland) vs OAK (C. Gaudin) Jerome Williams (WAS) vs ATL (C. James) at FLA (A. Sanchez) Zack Greinke (KC) at DET (J. Verlander) vs MIN (R. Ortiz) Jason Bergmann (WAS) vs ATL (J. Smoltz) at FLA (Mitre) Micah Owings (ARZ) vs LAD (B. Penny) at SF (N. Lowry) Ramon Ortiz (MIN) at SEA (Jef. Weaver) at KC (Z. Greinke) Oliver Perez (NYM) at PHI (A. Eaton) vs ATL (C. James) Tom Gorzelanny (PIT) at STL (A. Reyes) at LAD (B. Tomko) Anthony Reyes (STL) vs PIT (I. Snell) at CHC (J. Marquis) Matt Morris (SF) at COL (J. Francis) vs ARZ (E. Gonzalez) Brett Tomko (LAD) at ARZ (E. Gonzalez) vs PIT (I. Snell) Edgar Gonzalez (ARZ) vs LAD (B. Tomko) at SF (M. Morris) Tom Gorzelanny (PIT) at STL (A. Wainwright) at LAD (B. Penny) Team-by-team Game Totals: Seven-game schedule: ARI, ATL, BOS, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS Six-game schedule: BAL, CHW, CLE, DET, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, TB, TEX, TOR, SEA Five-game schedule: OAK Rain threatened games: Monday, April 16: LAA @ BOS (100%), SF @ COL (40%) Tuesday, April 17: SF @ COL (40%), MIN @ SEA (60%) Wednesday, April 18: KC @ DET (40%), BAL @ TB (40%), MIN @ SEA (40%) Friday, April 20: SF @ PIT (40%) Sunday, April 22: SEA @ LAA (40%), ARI @ SF (60%), PIT @ LA (50%), OAK @ TEX (60%) Stadium Factor: ESPN.com - MLB - Park Factor Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. Top Hitter's Park Schedules: 2. Coors Field (Rockies) 2.000 runs 2 vs. SF, 2 vs. LA, 3 vs. SD 3. Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.841 runs 3 vs. KC, 3 vs. CHW 4. Miller Park (Brewers) 1.547 runs 2 vs. PIT, 3 vs. HOU 5. Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 1.488 runs 3 vs. CLE 6. U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.484 runs 3 vs. TEX No Games: 1. Metrodome (Twins) 2.540 runs Top Pitcher's Park Schedules: 29. Petco Park (Padres) 0.615 runs 2 vs. ARI 28. Camden Yards (Orioles) 0.629 runs 3 vs. TOR 27. Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.683 runs 2 vs. FLA 26. Dolphin Stadium (Marlins) 0.693 runs 2 vs. NYM, 3 vs. WAS 25. Angel Stadium (Angels) 0.731 runs 3 vs. SEA No Games: 30. Jacobs Field (Indians) 0.585 runs Caught Stealing %: Stats based on 2007 exclusively: Toughest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%) 1. David Ross, CIN 0-for-2 (100%) 2 vs. MIL, 2 vs. HOU, 3 vs. PHI 2. A.J. Pierzynski, CHW 1-for-3 (66.7%) 3 vs. TEX, 3 @ DET 3. Jason Kendall, OAK 3-for-8 (62.5%) 2 vs. LAA, 3 @ TEX 4. Yadier Molina, STL 2-for-5 (40%) 2 vs. PIT, 2 @ SF, 3 @ CHC 5T. Russell Martin, LA 4-for-8 (50%) 2 @ ARI, 2 @ COL, 3 vs. PIT 5T. Paul Lo Duca, NYM 3-for-6 (50%) 2 @ PHI, 2 @ FLA, 3 vs. ATL 5T. Jason Varitek, BOS 1-for-2 (50%) 1 vs. LAA, 3 @ TOR, 3 vs. NYY Facing these elite catchers is bad news for the following players in the stolen base category: Chris Burke (3-for-3 SB), Kenny Lofton (4-for-5 SB), Brandon Inge (2-for-2 SB), Kaz Matsui (5-for-5 SB) Easiest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%) 1. Brian Schneider, WAS 9-for-9 (0%) 2 vs. ATL, 2 vs. PHI, 3 @ FLA 2. Ivan Rodriguez, DET 6-for-6 (0%) 3 vs. KC, 3 vs. CHW 3. Gregg Zaun, TOR 7-for-8 (12.5%) 3 vs. BOS, 3 @ BAL 4. Jorge Posada, NYY 10-for-13 (23.1%) 3 vs. CLE, 3 @ BOS 5T. Carlos Ruiz, PHI 6-for-8 (25%) 2 vs. NYM, 2 @ WAS, 3 @ CIN 5T. Brian McCann, ATL 6-for-8 (25%) 2 @ WAS, 2 vs. CHC, 3 @ NYM 5T. Joe Mauer, MIN 3-for-4 (25%) 3 @ SEA, 3 @ KC Facing these catchers is good news for Darin Erstad (3-for-3 SB), Scott Podsednik (3-for-5 SB), Julio Lugo (3-for-3 SB), Grady Sizemore (3-for-3 SB), David Wright (3-for-3 SB), Jose Reyes (6-for-8 SB) American League: Baltimore: (2 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Boston: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Chicago White Sox: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Cleveland: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Detroit: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Kansas City: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Los Angeles Angels: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Minnesota: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) New York Yankees: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Oakland: (4 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Seattle: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Tampa Bay: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Texas: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Toronto: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Notes: The Orioles, Twins and DRays play three southpaws this week. That's good news for Jay Gibbons (.417 vs LHPs), Alberto Castillo (.429 vs LHPs), Justin Morneau (.316 vs LHPs), B.J. Upton (.417 vs LHPs), Ty Wigginton (.500 vs LHPs), Akinori Iwamura (.500 vs LHPs), Delmon Young (.385 vs LHPs) And bad news for Brian Roberts (.176 vs LHPs), Nick Markakis (.176 vs LHPs), Luis Castillo (.158 vs LHPs), Elijah Dukes (.167 vs LHPs), Ben Zobrist (.083 vs LHPs), Carl Crawford (.231 vs LHPs) National League: Arizona: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Atlanta: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Chicago Cubs: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers) Cincinnati: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Colorado: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Florida: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Houston: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Los Angeles Dodgers: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Milwaukee: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) note: Thur vs Mil (TBA) New York Mets: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Philadelphia: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Pittsburgh: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) San Diego: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) San Francisco: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) St. Louis: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) note: Thur vs SF (TBA) Washington: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) The Brewers, Giants, Cardinals and Nationals play three lefthanders, while the Cubs play just righties. That's good news for Bill Hall (.400 vs LHPs), Barry Bonds (.500 vs LHPs), David Eckstein (.462 vs LHPs), Chris Duncan (.500 vs LHPs), Ronnie Belliard (.600 vs LHPs), Aramis Ramirez (.433 vs RHPs), Derrek Lee (.368 vs RHPs), Ryan Theriot (.357 vs RHPs) That's bad news for Prince Fielder (.182 vs LHPs), Geoff Jenkins (.167 vs LHPs), Rickie Weeks (0-for-6 vs LHPs), Omar Vizquel (0-for-6 vs LHPs), Bengie Molina (0-for-6 vs LHPs), Albert Pujols (0-for-10 vs LHPs), Preston Wilson (.200 vs LHPs), Brian Schneider (0-for-10 vs LHPs), Austin Kearns (.111 vs LHPs), Alfonso Soriano (.225 vs RHPs) Some scheduled two-start pitchers in week 4: Erik Bedard, Scott Kazmir, Tim Wakefield, Tomo Ohka, Jeremy Sowers, Kei Igawa, Brandon Duckworth, Jeremy Bonderman, John Lackey, Dan Haren, Carlos Silva, Felix Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Webb, David Wells, Carlos Zambrano, Kyle Davies, Aaron Harang, Derek Lowe, Josh Fogg, Mike Pelfrey, Dontrelle Willis, Brett Myers, John Patterson, Tony Armas Jr., Randy Keisler, Russ Ortiz Latest on the injury front: Outfielders: Jeff DaVanon (shoulder) return mid-April Chris Denorfia (elbow) likely out for the season Juan Encarnacion (wrist) return mid-April Alex Escobar (shoulder) return May/June Chone Figgins (finger) return early May Lew Ford (knee) return mid-April Jeremy Hermida (knee) out until mid-April Reed Johnson (back) return early May Matt Kemp (shoulder) return late April Mark Kotsay (back) return May/June Nook Logan (foot) return late April Hideki Matsui (hamstring) return late April Laynce Nix (ribs) return mid-April Jay Payton (hamstring) return mid-April Jason Repko (groin) might be out for the season Juan Rivera (leg) return July/August Carlos Quentin (shoulder) return mid-April Rondell White (calf) return late April Infielders Willy Aybar (hand) return mid-April Alex Gonzalez (personal) day-to-day Cristian Guzman (hamstring) return late April Dan Johnson (hip) out until mid-season Nick Johnson (leg) return mid-season Corey Koskie (concussion) out indefinitely Dallas McPherson (back) return Aug/Sept Aramis Ramirez (wrist) day-to-day Catchers: Toby Hall (shoulder) might be out for the season Ramon Hernandez (ribs) return late April Victor Martinez (quadriceps) day-to-day Vance Wilson (ankle) return mid-April Designated Hitters: Greg Norton (knee) return mid-May Starting Pitchers: Brandon Backe (elbow) return August/September Chris Carpenter (elbow) return early May Matt Clement (shoulder) return July/August Bartolo Colon (shoulder) return late April Lance Cormier (shoulder) return mid-April Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) return early May Jeff Francis (suspension) will return Monday Freddy Garcia (biceps) return mid-April Mike Hampton (ribs) out for the season Luke Hudson (shoulder) return mid-April Jason Jennings (elbow) return early may Josh Johnson (elbow) return mid-season Randy Johnson (back) 50/50 to return April 19 vs. San Diego Jeff Karstens (elbow) return mid-April Brian Lawrence (shoulder) return mid-April, might be released Cliff Lee (abdomen) return late April Jon Lester (cancer) return early May Francisco Liriano (elbow) out for the season Esteban Loaiza (shoulder) return mid-April Pedro Martinez (shoulder) return July/August Mark Mulder (shoulder) return July Mike Mussina (hamstring) - out until early May Ricky Nolasco (elbow) return early May Carl Pavano (forearm) - return early May Mark Prior (shoulder) out indefinitely Kenny Rogers (arm) return July John Thomson (shoulder) out indefinitely Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) hoping to return April 24 Jered Weaver (biceps) scheduled to start on April 16 James Wright (shoulder) return early May Jaret Wright (shoulder) return early May Important Relievers: Kris Benson (shoulder) likely out for the season Yhency Brazoban (elbow) return mid-season Octavio Dotel (ribs) return mid-April John Grabow (elbow) return mid-April Eddie Guardado (elbow) return June/July Brandon League (shoulder) out indefinitely Tom Martin (groin) return late April Matt Miller (elbow) return early May Arthur Rhodes (elbow) return mid-April B.J. Ryan (elbow) out indefinitely Duaner Sanchez (shoulder) return July/August Tanyon Sturtze (shoulder) return May/June Kerry Wood (triceps) return mid- to late April |
| | |
| | #86 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| NL Team-by-Team Notes The 5-foot-8, 170-pound Jimmy Rollins has six homers in 11 games. One was of the inside-of-the-park variety, but even so, he's put five balls into the bleachers already. Since three of those have come on the road, it's not like he's just taking advantage of Citizens Bank Park. I'm still not convinced we're going to see Rollins get to 30 homers this year, but I do regret projecting him at just 15. It'll be interesting to see just how much the power helps him as a fantasy shortstop. He's tried just one steal through two weeks. He attempted 40 last year, and he's had at least 32 tries in each of his six full seasons. At the start of the year, I had Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada and Rollins all bunched together well behind Jose Reyes atop the shortstop rankings. I'd put Rollins ahead of Tejada now, but I don't think he's overtaken Jeter yet. National League notes Arizona - Randy Johnson (back) sounds like someone who might need one more rehab start before rejoining the Diamondbacks, though that won't be determined until after Monday's throwing session. It wouldn't be the worst thing for the club to get a little more time to pick between Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings for the final rotation spot. With a 1.59 ERA in two starts, Owings is looking like the better choice. He'd be worth adding in NL-only leagues if he gets the nod. Carlos Quentin (shoulder) could return on Monday or Tuesday, sending Scott Hairston back to the bench. Conor Jackson sat out back-to-back games over the weekend. He's not on the verge of losing his job or anything, but he could use a hot streak to separate himself from Tony Clark. I still expect him to have some value in shallow mixed leagues. Atlanta - With Mike Hampton done following another elbow surgery, it looks like the Braves will have to rely on two members from the group of Mark Redman, Lance Cormier and Kyle Davies to act as starters over the rest of the year. Davies has the most upside, and with Cormier (shoulder) not progressing as quickly as hoped, there now seems to be some chance of him earning a permanent spot. He has some value in NL-only leagues. Hampton's injury also increases the chances that prospect Matt Harrison will contribute in the second half of the season. Both Redman and Cormier could fall short of being adequate bottom-of-the-rotation starters. With Ryan Langerhans off to a 2-for-20 start, Matt Diaz stands to see more time versus right-handed pitching. Diaz already has a few more at-bats than Langerhans because of the inordinate amount of southpaws the Braves have faced to far and is hitting .375. He's capable of batting .300 as a full-time player, though with only moderate home run power and limited speed, he's never likely to be of much use as a mixed-league outfielder. Kelly Johnson may be batting just .154, but he's walked nine times and scored nine runs in 10 games. As long as his glove holds up, he's going to be a fixture in the lineup. Chicago - It was curious how Mark Prior went from being able to throw four innings in spring training games to not being ready to pitch for Triple-A Iowa. Now we know why. Prior was sent to see both Dr. Lewis Yocum and Dr. James Andrews after a setback with his shoulder last week. Even if he gets favorable reports back, he seems like a long shot to contribute this year. Surgery to repair looseness in his shoulder, a procedure considered last October, could be on the way. Matt Murton has been a non-factor of late, making his last start on April 8. Supposedly the Cubs' primary left fielder, he's been on the bench in favor of Cliff Floyd since opening the season 4-for-13. Murton has been the odd man out even though Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones and Floyd have combined for three RBI in 117 at-bats to date. He deserves better after his showing last year. Aramis Ramirez could return from right wrist tendinitis on Monday. Ryan Theriot, who has filled in the last three games, will keep being worked into the lineup, as manager Lou Piniella seems to favor him as the No. 2 hitter. Cincinnati - I can't see ever completely buying into Kyle Lohse, but the former Twin did amass a 4.18 ERA in the AL in 2005. He's capable of a sub-4.00 ERA in the NL for a full year, and he can even be looked at as a spot starter in mixed leagues with the way he's throwing now. However, he'd be a sell-high candidate if he's still pitching well at this time next month. Josh Hamilton's fast start has manager Jerry Narron reconsidering his preference not to use Ryan Freel in the infield. Expect Freel to get his first start at third base in place of the slumping Edwin Encarnacion soon. He could also see some time at second, giving him additional value in fantasy leagues. I'm still not too high on Hamilton, but he certainly hasn't seemed overmatched so far. His swing suggests he's going to be a 30-homer guy in a couple of years, and that he's walked four times in 17 at-bats is plenty encouraging. Still, he's vulnerable enough to good breaking balls that he doesn't figure to hit for average this year. The Reds don't need to rush him into a starting role. Colorado - Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta earned starting jobs with strong showings last month, but they've combined for a .161 average and three extra-base hits so far this season. Maybe a seven-game homestand this week will help out. Tulowitzki appears closer to breaking through. I don't yet see any reason to believe that he won't finish the season with about 15 homers. Iannetta is likely further away from being of a lot of help in NL-only leagues. His game is OBP, but he appears overly tentative right now. Expect Yorvit Torrealba to keep making two or three starts per week in his place. With LaTroy Hawkins struggling, it looks like either Manny Corpas or Ramon Ramirez will soon be the Rockies' top setup man. Both are worth watching, as the possibility exists that Brian Fuentes will be moved this summer. Personally, I prefer Corpas as a fantasy sleeper. Florida - With a 1/10 K/BB ratio in 4 2/3 innings, Jorge Julio seems unlikely to regain closing duties anytime soon. Henry Owens should be the favorite for saves in the Florida pen. After posting a 0.64 ERA in spring training, he'll allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings during the regular season. Also in the mix to close are Taylor Tankersley, Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom. I still think Tankersley will end the year with the best ERA of any of the Marlins' relievers, but Owens is the one to own in all formats right now. This isn't the time to give up on Scott Olsen in mixed leagues, not with the Nationals up next. Anibal Sanchez is also a nice play in mixed leagues this week. Houston - Pulling Brad Lidge from the closer's role was the right move, and the Astros probably won't be as quick to go back to him as they were last year. He needs to spend at least a month in middle relief. Lidge hasn't lost any stuff, so there's always hope that it will click for him. Still, it might take a change of scenery. The Astros appear to have little interest in moving him right now, but a few more poor outings would likely change that. Dan Wheeler is likely to be just fine in the closer's role. His slider neutralizes right-handers, and he doesn't give up as many homers as he did early in his career. The Astros will need some bullpen help if Lidge doesn't bounce back, but they shouldn't have to worry about landing a true closer. Given the chance, Wheeler will notch 30 saves. As high as the Astros were on Mark Loretta during spring training, it's odd to see that he has just eight at-bats through 10 games. He might be worth using in NL-only leagues later this year, but there's little reason to own him now. Los Angeles - Jason Schmidt lost his best fastball a couple of years ago, so I wasn't very concerned about the reports regarding his diminished velocity in spring training. He's started slow before and worked his way back up to the 90-92 mph range. The same could happen again year, but it is disturbing he's been in the mid-80s more often than not so far. Considering that Schmidt says he's healthy and he has little reason to lie while in the first year of his contract -- it's not yet time to panic. With Dodger Stadium aiding him, he'd probably be fairly successful working in the high-80s. Wilson Betemit has yet to earn the benefit of the doubt in Los Angeles, so his 1-for-24 start is going to cost him playing time. Andy LaRoche isn't an alternative, as he's hitting .172 at Triple-A Las Vegas. The surprising Wilson Valdez stands to benefit most from Betemit's slump and is worth using in NL-only leagues. I'm still expecting Betemit to hit 15-20 homers, but it wouldn't be a big surprise to see him get there with another team in the second half. Milwaukee - Bill Hall had a fine spring offensively, hitting .313/.390/.567 in Arizona, and the Brewers seemed pretty happy about his defense in center field. The regular season, on the other hand, has been a totally different story. Hall is batting .171 in 35 at-bats, and it seems like some of his problems on defense are spilling into the batter's box. With Ned Yost showing once again that he's no member of the Corey Hart fan club, the Brewers could try Hall in right if they think he'd fit better in a corner. It'd make even more sense to play him at third base over the Craig Counsell-Tony Graffanino platoon. However, the club's plan is to stick with Hall in center right now. He has the speed to be adequate there, and it's safe to assume his offense will pick up soon enough. Ryan Braun, who hit three homers off Chan Ho Park in a Triple-A game on Saturday, is the other alternative for the Brewers at third base. If he could play average defense at the position, he'd already be a major league regular. Unfortunately, he's a liability there now and his tendency to make errors could force him to the outfield. If Hart can't establish himself in right field, the Brewers should try Braun there in Triple-A and see if he can contribute come June or July. New York - Lastings Milledge had to go last week. Even Endy Chavez didn't have a start until Saturday, and if the Mets can't find at-bats for their fourth outfielder, there was no reason to carry Milledge as a reserve. Shawn Green has gotten off to a fine start following his awful spring, but he needs to outhit Chavez by a hefty margin to be the superior option as a regular, considering that he's the far inferior defender and he doesn't offer as much on the basepaths. He's OK as long as he hits .300, but that's not going to last for long. There's been plenty of speculation that Milledge's next appearance in the majors will come in a different uniform, especially since it's likely the Mets will need some pitching help in July. However, there's no guarantee that there will be any top-flight hurlers available and the Mets have other bait to use to acquire a fourth starter or a setup man. A Milledge trade made more sense when other teams saw him as a center fielder. Now he's viewed as corner guy by most, and some have soured on his offensive potential a bit, though the way I see it, he's as good of a prospect as ever. Unless Dontrelle Willis or Dan Haren becomes available, the Mets should keep Milledge and pencil him in as their right fielder in 2008. Pittsburgh - The Pirates were treating Adam LaRoche as a savior, but what they got was a guy who was an average regular until hitting .323/.387/.655 in 229 at-bats after the All-Star break last season. The Pirates can reasonably expect him to hit 25-30 homers and drive in 90-100 runs this year, but they didn't acquire a perennial All-Star and all of the expectations that came with the trade could be taking a toll. Expect LaRoche to break out of his current slump soon enough. He also started very slow his first two seasons, so this is nothing new. Ian Snell has yet to earn a win in two strong performances, but he's quickly made a statement that he's going to be an asset in mixed leagues this year. The Pirates have also received great results from Tom Gorzelanny, who nearly lost his rotation spot after an ugly spring. Gorzelanny shouldn't be picked up in mixed leagues just yet, but he is worth paying attention to. St. Louis - Thanks to two homers and five RBI on Sunday, I no longer have to share how unworried I was about Albert Pujols' slump. Chris Carpenter is someone to be worried about. The Cardinals don't seem overly concerned about the diagnosis of arthritis in the right-hander's elbow, but they do have to sweat the impingement. Odds are that Carpenter will be able to avoid surgery, at least until the offseason, but if not, he'd likely miss two or three months. Randy Keisler is a weak option in NL-only leagues while filling in for Carpenter. The journeyman left-hander could be replaced by Blake Hawksworth or Chris Narveson if he struggles. Amazingly enough, Ryan Franklin is probably second in line for saves in the St. Louis pen right now. Brad Thompson is still the better option in NL-only leagues because of his win potential, but Franklin is also probably worth owning. Even if Jason Isringhausen can stay healthy, the Cardinals are going to be careful when it comes to using him three days in a row. San Diego - Mike Cameron is batting .156 and doesn't have an extra-base hit in 45 at-bats. His play will pick up, but he's probably not going to be the same kind of asset in mixed leagues that he was last year. He's due to lose about 20 points of average from his .268 mark in 2006, and since he figures to miss 20-30 games over the course of the year, he's going to have a tough time reaching 80 runs or RBI. Josh Bard's groin injury has the light-hitting Rob Bowen behind the plate. The Padres called up someone with additional power in Pete Laforest, but they're probably not going to downgrade their defense by giving him more than a couple of starts. Clay Hensley's early struggles seem to be mostly the result of his blister troubles. He's worth holding on to, but he's too risky to play this week against the Cubs and Rockies. San Francisco - Even if the Giants want to stick with Russ Ortiz as their fifth starter, Tim Lincecum is going to be hard to keep in the minors into June. The 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft has been dominant at Triple-A Fresno, striking out 17 in 12 scoreless innings. The Giants don't have to use Lincecum as a starter and might consider making him a late-inning reliever if Armando Benitez slumps. Still, as unlikely as it is that they'll go to the playoffs, turning to Lincecum for relief help would be a mistake. Ideally, he'd break in as a starter sometime in June or July. Just don't be surprised if it happens much earlier. The Giants have given Pedro Feliz two days off already, but instead of going to Kevin Frandsen, manager Bruce Bochy used Rich Aurilia at third and Ryan Klesko at first. With no playing time for Frandsen in sight, the 24-year-old was demoted to open up a roster spot for Mark Sweeney. Frandsen will return once Ray Durham gets hurt, but the Giants are playing it correctly now. Aurilia is more of an asset while playing all over the place than he is as a full-time first baseman. Klesko should have some value in NL-only leagues if the Giants can keep him in the lineup three times per week. Washington - With 110 losses on the way in 2007 and seemingly little chance of getting above .500 before 2009, the Nationals will have to strongly consider moving Chad Cordero in July. He's their best chip as they attempt to continue rebuilding the farm system. One good piece of news for Cordero owners is that, with the Red Sox moving Jonathan Papelbon back to the pen, the leading suitors for Cordero could all be NL teams. Barring injuries, the Indians may be the only AL team in the market for a closer. The Astros, Reds, Phillies, Giants, Rockies and Diamondbacks look like NL possibilities for Cordero. Jon Rauch is the leading candidate to replace Cordero in Washington. Luis Ayala (elbow) could be back in May and the club seems particularly fond of Ryan Wagner, but it should be Rauch's job, assuming he isn't traded himself. Neither Cristian Guzman (hamstring) nor Nook Logan (ankle) is expected back when eligible on Wednesday. Chris Snelling has replaced Kory Casto as the primary left fielder with Logan out. Ronnie Belliard has been strong enough at second base that the Nationals have reason to be very careful with Guzman. |
| | |
| | #87 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The Scout As a favor to a friend, I spent Sunday afternoon serving as one of two "independent talent evaluators" while a bunch of 11- and 12-year-olds tried out for the traveling team that he'll be coaching this season. I had a clipboard and everything, so the next time someone accuses me of being a "stat-head," I can surely point to the whole experience as evidence of my deep scouting background. As everyone knows, clipboards are no joke. In fact, when it comes to grading fifth graders' tools on a 1-to-10 scalemy evaluation form had way more than the standard five tools on it, and even included "baseball sense"word around the little league field is that I've immediately become one of the premiere scouts in the Twin Cities area. That'll look sweet as the new leadoff item on the old resume. As someone who's lucky enough to spend each day watching and writing about baseball, it was interesting to take an afternoon off from tracking guys like Albert Pujols and Johan Santana. Instead, I watched a bunch of kids who're probably 90 pounds soaking wet, and aren't at all opposed to the idea of a left-handed second baseman or wearing jeans and skateboarding shoes to a tryout. In order to convince the parents on hand that their sons were being evaluated by someone with some semblance of qualifications to do so, I was introduced as (among other things) a writer for Rotoworld. About 10 seconds later, one father came up to me and told me that he was a reader, at which point we discussed Manny Ramirez's ridiculous hair for several minutes (he's from Boston and his son sported a Manny jersey for the tryout). It made my afternoon. While I finalize my all-important grades for the 11-year-old hopefuls prior to Tuesday night's follow-up tryoutyes, I said follow-up tryouthere are some other notes from around (major-league) baseball * With Sunday's game rained out, Jered Weaver's debut start has been pushed back to either Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the status of Monday's rain-threatened game). Instead of coming back against the Red Sox, Weaver will get his feet wet with a much more favorable matchup against the A's. Trusting a pitcher fresh off the disabled list is always risky, but Weaver tossed seven shutout innings in his final minor-league tune-up and is a strong play immediately. Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon could soon be joining Weaver in the rotation after tossing seven scoreless innings of his own Sunday at Triple-A. Colon was reportedly working in the mid-90s with his fastball and, barring a setback, is scheduled to return Friday against the Mariners. Colon is less of a sure-thing play than Weaver this week, but a matchup against Seattle is a relatively favorable one and the Angels have been pleased with how he's looked while rehabbing. * After blowing a save in ugly fashion Saturday night, the Blue Jays placed B.J. Ryan on the disabled list Sunday with an elbow injury, rather than the back problems that limited him during spring training. With a visit to Dr. James Andrews scheduled Monday, Ryan's injury could be serious and the Blue Jays have made it clear that Jason Frasor will take over as closer until he returns. However, with Frasor throwing 30 pitches Saturday, it was Shaun Marcum who got the call to close things out Sunday. Marcum tossed a perfect inning against the Tigers to get the save, but Frasor remains the choice as a waiver-wire pickup this week and should be owned in all leagues. Marcum is worth keeping an eye on, especially if Ryan is out for a significant stretch, and Victor Zambrano could also emerge as an option for saves at some point if Frasor struggles in the role. * Rich Harden continued his brilliant start with six scoreless innings against the Yankees Sunday, but continued his history of injuries by exiting one batter into the seventh inning with shoulder tightness. The good news is that Harden said afterward that "it's not too serious" and he's "not concerned." The bad news is that Harden's track record suggests even "not too serious" is something to be concerned about, and the A's may stick him on the DL anyway just to be safe. AL Quick Hits: With both Mike Mussina (hamstring) and Carl Pavano (forearm) heading to the disabled list Sunday, Chase Wright will come up from Double-A to join Darrell Rasner in the rotation and Jeff Karstens (elbow) may be rushed back Following the death of his grandfather, Corey Patterson will be away on bereavement leave until at least Wednesday General manager J.P. Ricciardi said Sunday that Reed Johnson (back) is considering surgery that would keep him out for two months If a scheduled batting-practice session Monday goes well, Ramon Hernandez (oblique) could be back in the lineup by midweek Nick Punto (ankle) is scheduled to undergo an MRI Monday and manager Ron Gardenhire indicated that a trip to the DL looms Chone Figgins (fingers) took batting practice on both Saturday and Sunday, and could begin throwing Monday Manager Sam Perlozzo said Sunday that Jay Payton (hamstring) could return as soon as Friday As usual, reports of Ichiro Suzuki's demise were greatly exaggerated and he collected four hits while scoring four runs Sunday. NL Quick Hits: Making his first appearance since losing the closer job, Jorge Julio walked four batters in one inning against the Braves Manager Lou Piniella said that he's "hopefully optimistic" that Aramis Ramirez (wrist) will be back in the lineup Monday In a tour he's no doubt used to by now, Mark Prior (shoulder) will visit Dr. James Andrews this week after seeing Dr. Lewis Yocum over the weekend David Weathers has received all of the Reds' save chances thus far and is now 5-for-5 converting them With Sunday's game postponed due to rain, Freddy Garcia (biceps) is expected to make his season debut Monday against the Mets Reports of Albert Pujols' demise were predictably exaggerated too, as he homered twice while driving in five runs Sunday With Kaz Matsui (back) out, Jamey Carroll will likely see most of the starts at second base despite Clint Barmes being called up from Triple-A Playing at Triple-A, Ryan Braun took Chan Ho Park deep in three straight at-bats Saturday. |
| | |
| | #88 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Trouble in Toronto Monday was a very tough day for the Blue Jays, with B.J. Ryan and Troy Glaus heading to the disabled list, and Reed Johnson deciding to undergo surgery on a herniated disk in his back that'll sideline him for at least two months. Toronto has the outfield depth to replace Johnson, calling up top prospect Adam Lind to take over in left field in what may become a Wally Pipp situation, but the team is far less equipped to handle losing Ryan and Glaus. Glaus is expected to miss two weeks with a bone spur in his left heel, but a stint on the DL is far from guaranteed to fix the problem and eventual surgery can't be ruled out. The combination of Jason Smith, John McDonald, and recent call-up Ryan Roberts will replace Glaus, which figures to be an upgrade defensively while being a huge dropoff at the plate. No one from that trio is worth grabbing in fantasy leagues, regardless of how the playing time shakes out. Ryan is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a strained elbow ligament and the possibility exists that he'd need season-ending Tommy John surgery if his recovery doesn't go smoothly. That'd be a huge blow to the Blue Jays, who signed Ryan to a five-year deal worth $47 million last offseason, and their bullpen could be a problem without Ryan around to handle ninth-inning duties. Jason Frasor will step into the closer role initially, with Shaun Marcum and Victor Zambrano waiting in the wings. While Blue Jays fans wonder if their playoff chances vanished along with Ryan, Glaus, and Johnson Monday, here are some other notes from around baseball * Alfonso Soriano left Monday's game in the fifth inning with a strained left hamstring and said afterward that he expects to miss at least five days. If Soriano can avoid the disabled list, the Cubs may decide to use Jacque Jones in center field with Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton flanking him in the corners. While that's not a bad arrangement, Soriano being sidelined for more than a week could lead to calling up Felix Pie from Triple-A to step in as the regular center fielder. The 22-year-old Pie has been the subject of call-up speculation since 2005, but so far the Cubs have avoided the temptation. Despite Soriano's massive contract, Pie figures to be the Cubs' long-term center fielder. He's still somewhat rough around the edges and may struggle initially in his first taste of the big leagues, but Pie has the power-speed combination to be a big-time fantasy asset in time. * Carlos Quentin returned to the lineup Monday after sitting out the first two weeks with a partially torn left labrum, making his season debut as the Diamondbacks' right fielder and No. 5 hitter. Manager Bob Melvin indicated that he plans a four-man outfield rotation that will keep Quentin, Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, and Scott Hairston in the mix for regular at-bats, but that's going to be tough to pull off given that everyone involved is a right-handed hitter. The choice for who loses playing time may ultimately come down to Young or Hairston. Young is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and an outstanding defender in center field, but he's off to a 5-for-35 start at the plate. Hairston is deserving of a chance after consistently putting up excellent numbers in the minors and started 12 of Arizona's first 13 games while Quentin was sidelined, but has been pushed aside for less of a reason in the past. * On the same day that they got Quentin back, the Diamondbacks learned that Randy Johnson won't be returning as soon as initially hoped. Johnson revealed Monday that he wants to make one more minor-league rehab start before returning, saying: "I didn't feel I was ready I want to have one more productive start and know that it's my last start." That start will come Thursday at Triple-A, after which Johnson will be on track to debut next Tuesday against the Padres. * Vladimir Guerrero gave the Angels a major scare when he left Monday's game in the first inning after being hit on the wrist by a Josh Beckett pitch. Guerrero appeared to be in a ton of pain at the time, but X-rays were negative and the injury has been diagnosed as merely a bruise. Reggie Willits figures to fill in for Guerrero as long as the injury remains a short-term problem and picks up a little value in AL-only leagues. AL Quick Hits: Rich Harden (shoulder) said Monday that he's "pretty sure" he'll make his scheduled start Saturday The Angels confirmed that Jered Weaver (biceps) will debut Tuesday against the A's, with Bartolo Colon (shoulder) returning Saturday against the Mariners After taking soft toss Monday, Ramon Hernandez (oblique) is hoping to return Wednesday Nick Punto (ankle) is expected to avoid the disabled list after an MRI showed no serious damage Getting some work in a non-save situation Monday, Joakim Soria coughed up three runs in one-third of an inning According to manager Terry Francona, Julian Tavarez will start Thursday on 12 days' rest Alex Gordon surprisingly spent most of Monday's game at shortstop, making him eligible there in some leagues Ervin Santana's struggles on the road continued Monday, as he was knocked around by the Red Sox and dropped to 9-13 with a 6.78 ERA in 27 career starts away from home. NL Quick Hits: With a 7.36 ERA and significantly decreased velocity, Jason Schmidt underwent an MRI Monday despite claiming that his arm isn't sore Aramis Ramirez (wrist) wasn't used Monday, but manager Lou Piniella said that he expects him back on Tuesday or Wednesday Despite an ugly 6-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Brad Penny improved to 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA after beating the Diamondbacks Monday night Jeff Francis returned Monday from his five-game suspension and coughed up seven runs to the Giants Pinch-hitting in the ninth inning Monday, Josh Hamilton launched his third homer in 18 at-bats Despite tossing 120 pitches in his last start, Roy Oswalt will be working on three days' rest Tuesday Ryan Freel's two-year contract extension is worth $7 million, but doesn't buy out any free agency Lance Cormier (shoulder) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Sunday, at which point he'll be about one week from returning. |
| | |
| | #89 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Prospects: Inman and Rodriguez With a full docket of injuries and player reevaluations now in the books, I'm returning to the standard Prospect Report format this edition. That means I'll evaluate the significant callups of the last week, then move on to a pair of prospect profiles. If there are any prospects you're looking for a profile on, feel free to submit suggestions to the contact info at the bottom of the page or to the Rotoworld Forums. At worst, I'll do my best to send an abbreviated response if the player isn't selected for a full profile. Callups Alexi Casilla 2B Twins Traded from the Angels to the Twins for J.C. Romero after the 2005 season, Casilla is a speedy middle infielder lacking anything resembling power. The 5'9", 160-pound Casilla stole 50 bases in 60 attempts between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain last season, but he's a worthwhile prospect because he plays above average defense and also shows quality on-base skills. The 22-year-old switch-hitter hit .318 with a .386 on-base percentage last year. Big league pitchers with better control won't be afraid to lay pitches in the strike zone against him, but Casilla may be able to slap and bunt his way to a career similar to that of current Twins' second basemen Luis Castillo. Casilla is only up in the majors with the club lacking another option to replace the injured Jeff Cirillo. The Twins would prefer to see Casilla getting regular playing time down in Triple-A, and he could head back there before Cirillo is ready to return in three-to-six weeks. Since he won't play much and is likely headed back to the minors, Casilla is only to be considered in keeper formats at the moment. With Castillo a free agent at season's end, the always cost-conscious Twins could look to go with his younger version in Casilla. And while the promising prospect is no lock to perform nearly as well, the club may be forced to make the tough decision. Casilla's 40 steal and plus batting average potential would make him a very intriguing option in roto leagues, and he's worth locking up now if possible. Recommendation: Claim in keeper leagues, monitor in one-year formats. Jon Knott OF Orioles The quintessential Triple-A slugger, Knott has belted 82 homers for Portland of the Pacific Coast League since arriving there late in the 2003 campaign. The undrafted right-hander out of Mississippi State University posted his best season to date in 2006, leading the PCL in homers while batting .280/.353/.572 with a 103/52 K/BB ratio in 479 at-bats. Knott's power has always been a constant, but his long swing and unimpressive strikeout rate mean he's unlikely to hit for much average in the majors. Still, a background like this would ordinarily make a player like Knott an excellent prospect, but the 6'3", 210-pounder turns 29 in May and is thus unlikely to ever work as a regular for an extended period of time. With Jay Payton on the disabled list, Knott will serve as a reserve outfielder and pinch-hitter. He's capable of helping a team in that role, and a positive contribution in a platoon can't be ruled out either. Still, it's more likely that Knott gets a smattering of at-bats and then returns to the minors when Payton is ready this weekend. AL-only leaguers could consider Knott if he were ever given more steady big league at-bats, but there's no long-term potential and is thus not worth a claim at this time. Recommendation: Ignore for now in AL-only formats. Adam Lind OF Blue Jays The first big callup of the season, Lind is sure to garner a lot of attention in all AL-only leagues. A third rounder out of South Alabama in 2003, Lind looked like a potentially useful platoon player until last season. In 2006, Lind continued displaying his adeptness at hitting for average while batting .330 between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Syracuse, but increased power is what made him an intriguing prospect. The left-hander had hit 42 doubles and 12 homers the previous season, but he got a little more loft on the ball last year and belted 24 homers and 31 doubles in 38 less at-bats. A late season promotion to the majors also went well, with Lind batting .367 with two homers and eight doubles in 60 at-bats. Despite the big jump in production, Lind has all of the tools necessary to continue succeeding at the big league level. His swing is smooth and he's capable of going the other way. Throw in a 6'2", 200-pound frame, and he won't have a problem generating the requisite power either. That Lind improved his production and strike zone judgment as the season went along is another positive sign that his successes will carry forward. Given all of the above, the 23-year-old is currently ranked 27th in our Season Pass Top 100 prospects. Reed Johnson went down with a herniated disc in his back this week, and he'll be sidelined until July at the earliest. It's rather likely that he'll experience a setback or not regain full strength right away, so it looks like Lind has at least three full months as a regular in front of him. If he performs well, and I'm projecting that he will, the club could easily slide Reed Johnson back into a platoon role with Lind. Since he's a lock for 400 at-bats now and has 20-homer potential to go with a strong batting average, Lind is worth a big investment in AL-only formats. Recommendation: Bid aggressively in AL-only formats, monitor closely in mixed leagues. Glen Perkins LHP Twins The Twins recalled Perkins from Triple-A Rochester this week when they needed someone to log emergency innings. Perkins pitched in two games, giving up three runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. The assignment figures to be a temporary one, as Perkins is a legitimate candidate to join the Twins' rotation at some point this season. Once the team feels their bullpen is healthy enough, he'll be sent back down. However, those in keeper formats may want to consider claiming Perkins now. The 24-year-old doesn't have ace potential, but he has an average fastball to go with a quality changeup and a serviceable curve. Using that repertoire and changing speeds often has allowed Perkins to strike out more than a batter per inning in his minor league career, so he deserves a big league opportunity despite less than stellar scouting reports. If he can continue hitting his spots and keeping the ball in the yard, Perkins projects as a decent middle of the rotation starter that can help in AL-only formats. Recommendation: Monitor in one-year and keeper AL-only leagues. Josh Rabe OF Twins Another short-term callup by the Twins, Rabe is filling in for the injured Rondell White. Rabe, a 28-year-old right-hander out of Quincy University, debuted in the majors late last season. He had an impressive few weeks with the club, batting .286 and swatting three homers in just 49 at-bats. However, the 804 OPS Rabe posted in that small sample was the best he had posted since Double-A in 2003. While he has adequate control of the strike zone and the ability to hit for a decent average, Rabe isn't ever going to hit for enough power to be a regular. He'll get a few starts while White is out, but Rabe is unlikely to provide much value in the meantime and his long-term potential isn't promising. Recommendation: : Ignore in AL-only formats. Prospect Profiles Will Inman RHP Brewers Not a lot of noise has been made about their progress in developing youngsters, but the Brewers have quickly developed an impressive yet top-heavy minor league system. Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun are among the 15 best prospects in the game, and Inman is an up-and-comer who has the potential to crack the top 50 in short order. The club also has a number of interesting pitching prospects in Jeremy Jeffress, Manny Parra, and Mark Rogers to go with promising hitters Cole Gillespe, Angel Salome, and Lorenzo Cain. Add in that they've graduated Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks over the last two seasons, and scouting director Jack Zduriencik probably doesn't get as many accolades as he deserves. While Braun and Gallardo are potential All-Stars who should break into the majors this season, Inman is still another year or two away. The 6'0", 200-pound Inman was a third round selection in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school. He signed quickly and jumped into Rookie ball, posting an ERA under 2.00 with a 59/12 K/BB ratio in 47 innings of work. Inman was allowed to work out of the bullpen for a portion of those outings and it was a small sample against weak competition, but the debut still qualified as excellent. Assigned to Single-A West Virginia to begin the 2006 campaign, Inman continued to overmatch hitters in the low minors. He posted an excellent 134/24 K/BB ratio while giving up just 75 hits in 110 2/3 innings of work. Overall, he went 10-2 with a 1.71 ERA in 20 starts and three relief appearances. The one negative in the season was that Inman missed most of May and June after going to the disabled list with a shoulder strain. He was as dominant as ever after returning, but even relatively minor injuries are a red flag for pitchers this young. The Brewers thus figure to be cautious with the right-hander, and he's going to spend most of 2007 at High-A Brevard County regardless of how well he pitches. Inman, however, will do his best to test their patience. He's already off to a fast start for the Manatees, striking out 15 and giving up just one run over his first 10 2/3 innings. With excellent command of a fastball that can reach 93 MPH to go with a pair of above average secondary offerings in a curve and changeup, Inman's relative polish for a 20-year-old will further tempt the club's front office. Inman shouldn't have much difficulty dispensing of High-A batters this summer, so the biggest key to his prospect status is staying healthy. If he can make it to August without experiencing any arm injuries, perhaps a late season promotion will be in order. Double-A will prove a better test for Inman due to his lack of exceptional fastball velocity, but he throws plenty hard enough to succeed and I'm expecting him to pass with flying colors. Should he remain healthy and effective, Inman will enter 2008 as one of the game's top 10 pitching prospects. He's on track to break into the majors late in 2008 or early in 2009. Sean Rodriguez SS Angels The Angels are absolutely loaded when it comes to middle infield talent, and Rodriguez is just the latest in a line of strong prospects. Over the last few seasons, they've graduated Howie Kendrick, Alberto Callaspo (since traded), and Erick Aybar to go with current stud prospect Brandon Wood and now Rodriguez. Throw in veteran Orlando Cabrera being signed through 2008, finding a place to play for Chone Figgins, and a talented backup in Maicer Izturis, and it's a crowded situation to say the least. Of course, that's a pretty great problem to have. Rodriguez, a third round pick out of a Miami high school in 2003, was projected to be a quality middle infielder that could contribute across the board. His debut in Rookie ball after signing was far from ideal, but he didn't do anything to embarrass himself and he showed a broad range of skills. A move to the Pioneer League the next season put Rodriguez on the map after he posted a .338/.486/.569 line to go with a 62/51 K/BB ratio in 225 at-bats. A mid-season promotion to Single-A Cedar Rapids went poorly however, as Rodriguez saw his batting average, power, and plate discipline all regress significantly. Back at Cedar Rapids in 2005, Rodriguez improved his walk rate and cut down on his strikeouts, posting an excellent 85/78 K/BB rate in 448 at-bats. That his batting average stayed exactly the same and his power increased only marginally was disappointing, but the improved contact rate and pitch recognition were promising signs. It was a performance that wouldn't get him noticed, but would set him up well for future success. Moved up to Rancho Cucamonga to start the 2006 campaign, the 21-year-old finally had a full season breakout. He hit .301 with 29 doubles and 24 homers in 455 at-bats, then hit .354 with five homers in 65 at-bats after a late season promotion to Double-A Arkansas. That Rodriguez struck out 144 times and dropped his walk rate to just 58 free passes was of significant concern, but the pitch recognition skills are still very much there and Rodriguez swinging harder had more to do with the deterioration than an actual regression in skill. Back in Arkansas to start the 2007 season, the 6'0", 190-pound right-hander is off to a fast start, going 12-for-34 with four doubles, two homers, and a 10/6 K/BB ratio thus far. Rodriguez's biggest problems are on defense. His arm could play at shortstop or third base, but his range is poor and he's not very sure handed. A move to second base is possible in a different organization, but moving to a corner outfield position is more likely in Anaheim given Howie Kendrick's presence. Perhaps an off-season trade of Orlando Cabrera will open up some options, giving the club more opportunities to work in Aybar, Wood, and Rodriguez. When he does finally get a chance, Rodriguez should resemble an above average regular if he's playing in the infield. He's capable of batting .280 with 20 homers and 50 walks in his better years, and his intelligence on the bases should allow for 15 steals annually. He's an underrated prospect. |
| | |
| | #90 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Pie Steps in for Soriano So far at least, Alfonso Soriano has avoided the disabled list. However, the Cubs decided to call up prospect Felix Pie from Triple-A anyway, with the 22-year-old making his big-league debut Tuesday against the Padres as Soriano's replacement as the leadoff man and center fielder. Pie went 1-for-6 with an RBI double off future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux and threw out Russell Branyan at the plate with what would have been the go-ahead run in the 10th inning. An MRI on Soriano's injured hamstring came back negative Tuesday and he reiterated plans to return in about a week. Pie figures to get nearly every start in center field until then and has a chance for extended action given the unpredictable, slow-healing nature of Soriano's injury. Chicago's outfield was crowded already with Soriano, Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, and Matt Murton, but Pie could certainly work his way into a permanent spot with a strong start. While Cubs fans judge for themselves whether Pie is something special or merely the next Corey Patterson, here are some other notes from around baseball * One day after Jason Schmidt diffused questions about his decreased velocity by saying that his arm wasn't sore, the Dodgers placed him on the disabled list with what is being called shoulder inflammation. Manager Grady Little said Tuesday that the team hopes it's "just a short-term thing," but it could be more significant than that considering Schmidt has lacked velocity since early on in spring training. Mark Hendrickson will move from the bullpen to the rotation to replace Schmidt, but isn't worth picking up in 5x5 leagues despite a 1.64 ERA and impressive 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 relief innings. Hendrickson's track record as a starter is long enough and mediocre enough that we know he can't rack up the necessary strikeouts to be a worthwhile fantasy option, although he clings to marginal value in 4x4 leagues. * I'm not sure if this qualifies as ironic or just sad, but after making it back from offseason hernia surgery, Scott Podsednik got hurt while going through an off-day workout Monday. Podsednik suffered what is being called a "moderate-to-severe adductor strain" and was placed on the disabled list Tuesday, with no timetable for his return established yet. Posdednik had been off to a good start, batting .303 with three steals, but the White Sox are well prepared to replace him. Rob Mackowiak likely will step in for Podsednik against right-handed pitchers, with Pablo Ozuna continuing to face most left-handed pitchers as the other half of the left-field platoon. Brian Anderson could also pick up a few more at-bats with Podsednik out. The injury changes the White Sox's batting order a bit, with Darin Erstad likely moving up one spot into the leadoff role and Tadahito Iguchi sliding behind him in the No. 2 spot, which will give him a value boost. * An MRI on Jason Jennings' injured elbow showed no ligament damage, but he's expected to miss at least two starts after being placed on the disabled list Tuesday. Matt Albers, a 24-year-old right-hander who lost out on the fifth-starter job this spring, has been called up from Triple-A to replace Jennings in the rotation He's scheduled to debut Friday against Ben Sheets and the Brewers, which is a tough first matchup. Albers struggled in a brief stint with the Astros last season and got off to an equally rough start at Triple-A to begin this year, allowing nine runs in 13 innings. He isn't worth grabbing right away, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on in NL-only leagues after going 12-3 with a 2.49 ERA and 121-to-57 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 141 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season. * The Lincecum Watch: Tim Lincecum has yet to allow a run in three starts at Triple-A, tossing 5.0, 7.0, and 6.2 scoreless innings in his three outings. Daily Dose's favorite pitching prospect is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 28-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .143 opponent's batting average in 18.2 innings. AL Quick Hits: An MRI on Rich Harden's injured shoulder showed no damage and he's expected to start on April 24 With the Angels off Thursday, Vladimir Guerrero (hand) is expected to return Friday Ramon Hernandez (oblique) said that he was "pain free" after taking live batting practice Tuesday, but his expected return has been pushed back from Wednesday to Friday Torii Hunter left Tuesday game after hurting his shoulder and wrist on an attempted diving catch, but reportedly could play Wednesday Jay Payton (hamstring) is within days of returning, but manager Sam Perlozzo indicated that he may not have the everyday left-field job waiting for him Victor Martinez (quadriceps) was back in the lineup Tuesday for the first time since April 6 Howie Kendrick left Tuesday's game and was taken for X-rays after being hit on the left hand by a pitch One day after manager Ron Washington hinted at reducing his playing time, Sammy Sosa reacted to the boos in Chicago by smacking a three-run homer. NL Quick Hits: Freddy Garcia struck out six batters in his return to the rotation Tuesday, but was yanked with the bases loaded in the fifth inning Paul Lo Duca left Tuesday's game after taking a foul ball off his finger, but X-rays were negative and he's considered day-to-day Sergio Mitre lasted one-third of an inning Tuesday, leaving with a torn callous on his right hand Aramis Ramirez (wrist) returned to the lineup Tuesday after missing four games Matt Cain didn't pick up a win Tuesday because the Giants' bullpen let him down, but turned in another dominant start to lower his ERA to 1.80 Roy Oswalt pitched well on three days' rest Tuesday, picking up his third win After a disastrous outing Tuesday, Jorge Julio has allowed seven runs while walking five batters in two innings since losing the closer job Showing the downside of good-hitting pitchers, Micah Owings tweaked his hamstring while running the bases Tuesday With Kory Casto demoted to Triple-A, the left-field job belongs to Chris Snelling. |
| | |
| | #91 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Team Name Contest Results Due to the high volume of great team-name submissions, I'm dedicating this entire column to the team-name contest results. Don't worry, I'll bring the player advice back next week. Topic of the Week: Team Name Contest Results This was easily the best year to date for team-name submissions, so thanks to all who participated. Keeping in mind that I received several hundred emails, don't be too disappointed if your entry doesn't get a mention. Besides, my opinion is just that of one highly opinionated dude. If you want to complain about my choices and/or give the world a chance to judge your name, by all means hit our team name forum. Before I get into the results, I just want to point out that, for reasons of taste and originality, I had to disqualify entries that fit the following criteria:
MOST HUMOROUS Here are the runners up:
MOST INTIMIDATING Here are the runners up:
Here are the runners up:
DUMBEST Here are the runners up:
LEAST CREATIVE Here are the runners up:
Congrats to all winners! You're going to love the Rotoworld lids! The Trash Dump To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com. When I first joined a league run by Scoresheet Baseball, I called my team "Scored Sheetless." - Alan Not bad. "Creeping Death" - Old Metallica song. It is based on the 10 commandments movie. The green fog that kills all first born sons of nonbelievers that creeps into town. Thus if you don't believe or respect my team your team will die from the green fog creeping death. - Jon Clearly better than most of the runners up for Most Intimidating, but I needed to include the story behind it. I am an 82 year old great grandmother and I enjoy playing fantasy baseball. My team name is the "Quacker Jackers." I picked this name because my son always called me "Mother Duck". - Helen Wammes Now that is a cool grandma! For the past two seasons, my money league team has gone by the name"Urine Troubles." While the moniker may conjure up imagery of elderly men wincing in pain in public restrooms, it's actually meant to be a play on words, as in "You're in Troubles." - Daniel ("Crew Love" on the Rotoworld forums) Thanks for the explanation...I was confused as to the possible meaning. Not to burst your bubble, but I received this submission from about 10 different sources. I wanted to submit a team name that my friend and I have for our fantasy baseball team this year. It is "MoAz Kickers." I just moved to Missouri from Arizona where my friend Craig still lives. So we took the abbreviated state codes to create MoAz and then added Kickers to it since our team is stacked and they should be doing alot of Az Kickin' this year. Keep up the great and funny columns. - Jonathan Wilson I like it! My nickname is Nut. I'm bald. And I'm one person. My team name: "One Bald Nut." - Jeff Have to admit I chuckled. dude. you are an idiot. - Maureen (or more probably man who does not have his own email account) I'm not the one who thinks "dude" constitutes a sentence. After grabbing Lasting Milledge a few years back in the minor league draft and holding on to him through his rise to the majors last year we could not resist going with the "Milledge Idiots" (which, given his high-fiving romp around Shea last year, is probably appropriate in more ways than one). Had a few chuckles at our draft last week when for all intents and purposes the other owners dropped the "Milledge" and we became the "Idiots." - John Great story! I just thought it was interesting that I am in a 15 team league but somehow have five of the 15 players you mentioned in your column this week: Jonny Gomes, Rich Hill, Eric Chavez, Felix Hernandez, and Coco Crisp. If I lose my league this year I'm sending toucans of whoopass worth of spam mail your way.. jeje. - Gus from Nicaragua What's with all the pressure? Hey Jonathan, what do you call a guy with no arms and no legs floating in a lake? Bob. What do you call a guy with no arms and no legs in front of the door? Matt. Well, along those same lines...What do you call a guy looking for a place to go to the washroom? John Hunter. There you have you it...I've used my own name for my fantasy baseball team name: The "John Hunters." - John You get points for presentation. Mine..."The Fainting Goats." A fainting goat is a breed of domestic goats whose external muscles freeze for roughly 10 seconds when the goat is startled. Though painless, this generally results in the animal collapsing on its side. Thought it was appropriate given my historic inability to maintain a lead in fantasy baseball. - Phil Marino Genius. Had to put it in the Dump, though, so I could include the explanation. "We Don't Meche" (a league I was a last minute replacement for, I only know one person in this league and have never met anyone except the guy who asked me). - Rod Rego, Phoenix, AZ Good stuff. I actually just welcomed my wife, yes "My Wife," into our fantasy baseball league. She was excited at our annual draft when she announced her team name of "Double D's," jumping up and down to show the crowd why she chose such a name. - Craig Maynard I think that falls under Most Intimidating for many fantasy nerds. Mr. Gangi, as both a long time fantasy baseball fan and also a big fan of 24, last year I renamed by team to '24 Jacks'. Dumb? Humourous? Least creative? You decide. - Eric Musselman, Toronto, ON Sorry E, much as I love 24, I have to go with dumb on that one! |
| | |
| | #92 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Not time to panic ... yet It's easy to overreact to every little thing that happens in the first month of the season. We've been waiting all spring for the games to count, we've picked out our sleepers and our franchise cornerstones, and when it doesn't all add up after the first couple of weeks, we're ready to ditch half of our roster. That feeling might be even more widespread than usual this April. From the wacky weather to the prevalence of struggling stars, it seems very little has gone according to plan. For many fantasy teams, it's been a washout on a number of fronts. For instance: The Seattle Mariners had almost as many off days because of rain and snow as they did game days in the first two weeks. Ichiro Suzuki is usually a lock to boost fantasy teams' batting averages and stolen-base totals, but through Friday he had four hits, a .182 average and no steals. (Time to panic? Two days later, Ichiro had nine hits, a steal and a .290 average.) Last year's steals king in the American League, Carl Crawford, has been bogged down (literally) to start the season. He was thrown out twice in a game for the first time in his career last week at the Texas Rangers, prompting Tampa Bay Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon to suggest the dirt around first base was a little on the wet side. Several highly touted rookies have struggled to keep their heads above water this season. Alex Gordon is hitting .111, Kevin Kouzmanoff .156, Chris Young .156 and Troy Tulowitzki .179. Also hitting around or under .200: Brian Roberts, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Adrian Beltre, Andruw Jones, Lance Berkman, Juan Pierre, Bill Hall, Albert Pujols, Mike Cameron and Adam LaRoche. Most, if not all, of these players will turn things around very quickly. But that doesn't ease their fantasy owners' pain. We can say the first month of the season really doesn't matter, but anyone who tried to trade Pierre last season after he hit .258 in April and followed it up with a .226 average in May knows that's not always the case. The casual fan remembers that slow start and might not recall that Pierre hit .313 the rest of the way and finished with another 200-hit season, a .292 average and 58 stolen bases. Pierre is off to a slow start again this year and could be the classic example of what I like to call the Theory of Inflated April Importance. It states that a poor start will drop a player's perceived value far below his actual value even after he's started to perform well again because it's harder to rebound statistically. But fantasy owners need to be looking forward, not backward. When making a decision about whether to start, bench or trade a player, the stats he's already posted aren't as important as the stats he's going to put up in the weeks to come. As a result, some buy-low candidates to consider: Mark Teahen, Royals. He's hitting .200, but don't forget he started slowly last season as well, even to the point of being sent to the minors. After the All-Star break, however, he caught fire. This year's struggles could be due in part to Teahen having to learn a new position. Once he gets comfortable in the outfield, he'll be more productive at the plate. Mark Teixeira, Rangers. It might have taken him 11 games to get his first extra-base hit, but "Big Tex" isn't making drastic changes in his approach. He's staying patient walking about as often as he's striking out something he didn't do last year when he also started slowly. Look for a quicker rebound this time. Chris Ray, Orioles. He gave up a game-winning grand slam to Alex Rodriguez that cost him a save and helped inflate his ERA to 5.40. But opponents are hitting .200 against him, and he's in no danger of losing his job as closer. Michael Barrett, Cubs. Manager Lou Piniella said it first: The cold early-season weather has kept the Cubs' fly-ball hitters in check. Pitcher Carlos Zambrano had more home runs than Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Barrett combined during the first two weeks. But Barrett is one of the best-hitting catchers in the National League, and he could provide an inexpensive upgrade. Noah Lowry, Giants. His teammates haven't helped him a whole lot. They've scored one run in his two starts, and they've allowed an unearned run in each game. Lowry has a respectable 2.77 ERA. Barry Zito owners may not be willing to give up on him so soon, but Lowry could make a decent trade target, especially with pitcher's parks in three of the five NL West cities. Brad Lidge, Astros. He's lost his job as closer and has been banished to middle relief, but his ability to strike batters out hasn't gone anywhere. Once Lidge clears the mental hurdle of getting back on the mound in a save situation, he'll have value again whether that's in Houston or somewhere else. Quick fixes The early part of the season provides the greatest opportunity to make impact trades, but for many owners it's simply too soon to make any major moves. That doesn't mean there aren't other ways for a struggling fantasy team to improve. For some, just getting to play the Washington Nationals might be enough to right the ship. There will certainly be brighter days in the nation's capital, but the Nationals look like they might be a favorite punching bag this season. After two weeks, they had the highest team ERA and the lowest team batting average in the National League. Another more realistic solution is to look for smaller ways to improve your roster week by week via the waiver wire. Be ready to jump on new closer candidates or players who have the potential to step into a full-time job. The Royals' Joakim Soria was one of this week's free agent prizes because he's filling the closer role until Octavio Dotel is completely healthy. Opponents haven't been able to solve the Rule 5 pickup, hitting .143 against him. If Dotel is slow to heal (as has been the case), Soria could pick up more than just a handful of saves. Meanwhile, Akinori Otsuka probably will be dropped in a number of leagues with Eric Gagne off the disabled list and closing games for Texas. But Gagne's health is no sure thing, and Otsuka will get save opportunities if for no other reason than to keep Gagne fresh. The Cincinnati Reds' Josh Hamilton didn't figure to be a full-timer unless there was an injury. Yet he showed what he can do when given a chance by homering in each of his first two starts. He's worth a roster spot right now and could become a valuable contributor if there's an injury in the Reds' outfield or if the Ryan Freel experiment at third base takes hold. Another player in a similar situation is the Colorado Rockies' Jeff Baker. He will get an occasional start in the outfield (for Brad Hawpe) or at first base (for Todd Helton) against a left-hander but for now will keep his .438 average and .813 slugging percentage ready for mostly pinch-hitting situations. |
| | |
| | #93 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Elbow Overshadows No-No It's rare that a pitcher tossing a no-hitter somehow avoids being the biggest story in baseball, but that was the case Wednesday nightat least in fantasy terms. Mark Buehrle no-hit the Rangers, facing the minimum 27 batters after picking Sammy Sosa off first base following his only walk. He earned a beer bath from teammates and nation-wide headlines, but the biggest fantasy story was undoubtedly Felix Hernandez leaving his start against the Twins with elbow tightness. While Buehrle kept the Rangers off balance all night with tremendous command, Hernandez struggled to throw strikes in the first inning before signaling to the Mariners' dugout that he needed help four batters into the game. He walked off the mound grimacing and then squatted down as manager Mike Hargrove and the training staff arrived. After at most 10 seconds of dialogue with Hernandez, Hargrove turned away as King Felix walked off the field. It seems likely that Hernandez greeted Hargrove with something like "it's my elbow," because there was never any doubt that the 21-year-old ace was leaving the game and the Mariners are calling his injury "right elbow tightness." That's obviously the last thing anyone wanted to hear about one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball history, but the widespread panic should at least wait until more details become available in the next 48 hours. Whether or not it's a significant long-term injury, the Mariners are almost certain to place Hernandez on the disabled list. Jake Woods, who pitched well on zero notice as long reliever Wednesday, would likely replace Hernandez in the rotation, with Cha Seung Baek at Triple-A as another option. Whether you're a Mariners fan, a Hernandez owner, or simply a baseball nut, it's definitely breath-holding time. While Buehrle washes the beer off and everyone hopes for the best with King Felix, here are some other notes from around baseball * It doesn't compare to Hernandez abruptly leaving his start with elbow problems, but Phillies fans have an injured superstar to worry about as well. Ryan Howard stayed in Wednesday's game after tweaking his knee on the first-base bag while trying to beat out a double playwhich would seem to indicate that the injury isn't especially seriousbut he's expected to undergo an MRI Thursday. Much like discussing whether Woods or Baek will replace Hernandez, talking about the Phillies' backup plan if Howard is sidelined seems somewhat pointless given how devastating the loss would be. Greg Dobbs, Chris Coste, Abraham Nunez, and Jayson Werth would all be candidates to pick up at-bats depending on how manager Charlie Manuel chose to shuffle the lineup. After some of the decisions Manuel has made lately, I won't attempt to get inside his head. * The day after reportedly threatening a local radio-show host during an angry tirade, Manuel announced that Jon Lieber would be replacing Brett Myers in the rotation, with the Phillies' Opening Day starter moving to the bullpen. It's a tremendous overreaction to Myers' poor start, caused in large part by the presence of six qualified starters on a roster that also lacks dependable relievers. While far from one of my favorite players because of his off-field behavior, Myers has certainly proven himself enough as a starter to avoid having a rotation spot yanked away based on three lousy outings. Meanwhile, Adam Eaton lacks Myers' successful track record and has a 6.62 ERA through three starts, but as an offseason free-agent signing his rotation spot is apparently safe. Myers pitched an inning in relief Wednesday and figures to work as Tom Gordon's setup man. * Vladimir Guerrero and Howie Kendrick visited a hand specialist Wednesday after they were each hit by a pitch earlier this week, with the Angels receiving good news on one and bad news on the other. First, the good news. An MRI confirmed that Guerrero's injury is merely a bruise. He's expected to avoid the disabled list and could be back in the lineup as soon as Friday. Now, the bad news. Kendrick has a fractured finger and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. According to the Los Angeles Times, the Angels are likely to replace Kendrick on the roster by calling up Brandon Wood, a top prospect who's hitting .293 with three homers at Triple-A after being moved from shortstop to third base this spring. Chone Figgins is close to returning from two broken fingers of his own, but until then the Angels could go with a Wood-Robb Quinlan job-share at third base and a Maicer Izturis-Erick Aybar job-share at second base. AL Quick Hits: Ramon Hernandez (oblique) experienced a setback after taking batting practice Wednesday and may not return until next week Torii Hunter (shoulder) was scratched from the lineup Wednesday, but is expected to avoid the disabled list Manager Joe Torre announced that Jeff Karstens (elbow) will come off the DL to start Saturday against the Red Sox, with Chase Wright facing Boston Sunday Cliff Lee (abdomen) is expected to throw about 70 pitches in his minor-league rehab start Saturday at Triple-A, which means he could be close to rejoining the Indians Jose Lopez's new four-year contract extension with the Mariners doesn't buy out any free agency If his final start at Single-A Greenville goes well Friday, Jon Lester is expected to join the rotation at Triple-A Pawtucket Wednesday Brad Wilkerson (knee) was scratched from the lineup Wednesday and may miss several days after receiving a cortisone shot With Jorge Cantu being shopped around, the Rockies reportedly have some interest. NL Quick Hits: Manager Fredi Gonzalez has reportedly decided on Henry Owens as the Marlins' closer Alfonso Soriano (hamstring) said Wednesday that he hopes to return Friday Mike Gonzalez is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his left elbow, which Gonzalez said Wednesday was "just a little sore" Brandon Webb got stuck with a no-decision Wednesday, but racked up a career-high 13 strikeouts against the Padres Despite leaving his start Tuesday after recording just one out, Sergio Mitre (finger) doesn't expect to miss any additional time After starting the season in a 1-for-20 slump, Bill Hall has seven hitsincluding two homers and seven RBIsover the past three days At Edwin Encarnacion's expense, Josh Hamilton started Wednesday for the second straight game and smacked his fourth homer in 26 at-bats this season Willy Aybar has been suspended indefinitely by the Braves after remaining AWOL during his original three-game suspension It got lost in Buehrle completing the task, but John Maine took a no-hitter into the seventh inning Wednesday against the Marlins. |
| | |
| | #94 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Bullpen Report: Week 3 There were a lot of mixed feelings this spring when the Red Sox moved Jonathan Papelbon back to the closer's role. A still young and obviously talented pitcher, seeing how Papelbon could transition to the rotation after one of the best relief seasons of the decade would have been an interesting study. Instead, the right-hander decided he was more comfortable closing and requested a move back to ninth inning duties. Perhaps the team would have been better with Papelbon starting if he were only an above average closer. However, if he's really one of the best two or three closers in the game, than his utter dominance in high-leverage situations might mean everyone is better off. With nine strikeouts and no runs allowed in 4 1/3 innings, it's certainly looking like the proper move. Assuming he can remain healthy for a full season, it'd be surprising if Papelbon didn't finish in the top three in terms of fantasy closers. All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, or DL. Arizona Diamondbacks Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure) Key setup men: Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, Tony Pena Valverde gave up two hits in one outing this week and then walked a pair of batters in another, but he didn't give up a run in either appearance. With six saves and a strong strikeout rate in the early going, Valverde is looking like a steal for those who gambled on him this spring. After another few weeks of this he'll be a fine sell-high candidate given his injury history. Atlanta Braves Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Oscar Villarreal Wickman keeps chugging along, defying the odds and remaining an effective closer. He's still yet to give up a run this season. Soriano hasn't been lights out in a setup role, but Gonzalez's command problems might make Soriano the favorite for saves should something happen to Wickman in the near future. Baltimore Orioles Closer: Chris Ray (Locked In) Key setup men: Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker It's nice to see Ray continue to rebound after giving up a walk-off grand slam to Alex Rodriguez. He hasn't allowed a run since, and he picked up a win and two saves since the last column. If your league includes a "Story to tell the grandkids someday" category, Ray has been even more valuable. Boston Red Sox Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In) Key setup men: Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Hideki Okajima Another reason moving Papelbon back to the bullpen was a good decision is Pineiro's play. He's looked decidedly average as a reliever thus far, and it's doubtful he'd be able to bail out the club's middle relievers as often as Papelbon has the past 13 months. Okajima has looked strong with eight strikeouts and one run in 6 2/3 innings thus far. His good command and quality secondary offerings compliment a windup that can seriously mess with a hitter's timing. Chicago Cubs Closer: Ryan Dempster (Secure) Key setup men: Bob Howry, Kerry Wood (DL), Scott Eyre For those of you who correctly surmised that Wood would get hurt and Dempster would be given a chance to regain his previous form, pat yourselves on the back. Dempster has only two saves, but he's looked dominant while striking out eight and allowing just one hit in seven innings of work. He's got more job security than many think right now. Chicago White Sox Closer: Bobby Jenks (Secure) Key setup men: Mike MacDougal, Matt Thornton, Nick Masset, David Aardsma Jenks hasn't been dominant in the early going with a fastball that's still sitting in the low-to-mid 90s. He's given up seven hits and three runs in 6 2/3 innings, taking a loss in one outing and coming close to the same fate in another. He's now working with the team's psychiatrist to see if mental changes can improve his mechanics. It's unlikely that Jenks will be demoted until he struggles for an extended period of time, but that can't be ruled out. MacDougal is next in line despite a slow start, and former top prospect Aardsma's excellent start might put him in the mix at some point. Cincinnati Reds Closer: David Weathers (Shaky), Mike Stanton (Shaky) Key setup men: Todd Coffey, Jon Coutlangus I'll leave Weathers and Stanton listed as co-closers for another week, but Weathers is the one who's received every save opportunity thus far. It helps that everything has aligned for Weathers to finish the games, with Stanton starting the ninth in one save opportunity and then giving way to Weathers after retiring the first batter. Weathers can be bumped up a little in closer rankings, but the situation still remains a tricky one. Cleveland Indians Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure) Key setup men: Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera Borowski looked better this week than in the previous two, recording three saves and not yielding a run since the last column. There wasn't much doubt the club would stick with him through more than a few poor outings, but his owners are breathing a little easier now. Cabrera has eight strikeouts and hasn't yielded a run in 6 2/3 innings. A horrible start to the season did him in last year, but the longer he can remain effective the better a long-term investment he'll become. Those in AL-only leagues could consider stashing him away now. Colorado Rockies Closer: Brian Fuentes (Secure) Key setup men: Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins A slow start was rectified quickly by Fuentes, who recorded two saves without allowing a baserunner in three innings this week. He remains a fine option. Hawkins has already struggled in key situations, which should be a surprise to nobody, and has been demoted to middle relief. Both Corpas and Ramirez have looked strong, and it's still up in the air which would be next in line should something happen to Fuentes. Detroit Tigers Closer: Todd Jones (Secure) Key setup men: Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Wilfredo Ledezma Jones hadn't allowed a run despite striking out just two batters in 7 1/3 innings entering Wednesday, but then he blew a two-run lead against the lowly Royals. Those who own Jeremy Bonderman, the starter whose win was blown by Jones, aren't quite happy, but there's nothing to read into here. Florida Marlins Closer: Henry Owens (Shaky) Key setup men: Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg Julio went from closer to shaky option to setup man to mop up duty almost overnight. Now he's on the disabled list, which is the best thing for the Marlins right now. Owens hasn't recorded a save since taking over for Julio, but he still hasn't given up a run in eight innings of work either. He remains the top option. Tankersley has looked fine in a pair of innings since coming off the disabled list, and he's probably already second in line. Houston Astros Closer: Dan Wheeler (Secure) Key setup men: Chad Qualls, Brad Lidge, Trever Miller Wheeler only pitched once this week, throwing a scoreless inning and recording a save. If his lack of saves thus far leads to his owner undervaluing him, go out and make a trade. Lidge has thrown two scoreless innings over his last three appearances, but he's also allowed five baserunners during that span. He's not out of the woods yet. Even if Lidge does start to look better it will likely take Wheeler struggling in order to affect another set of role changes. Kansas City Royals Closer: Octavio Dotel (DL), Joakim Soria (Filling-in) Key setup men: Joel Peralta, David Riske All it took was one blown save for Riske to lose his title as interim closer. If that was the case, manager Buddy Bell should have just gone to Soria right away. Instead, Riske again gets knocked down a peg for no good reason. Soria recorded a save as this column was being written last week, and then gave up three runs against the Tigers in a game that was already a blowout. With Dotel's return being pushed out until early May, Soria is worth claiming for at least the next few weeks. Los Angeles Angels Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In) Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Darren Oliver K-Rod is one of the best closers in the game. Shields is the best setup man in the game. Speier is one of the best third options in the game. Any questions? Los Angeles Dodgers Closer: Takashi Saito (Secure) Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Rudy Seanez Someone needs to inform Saito that his unexciting fastball isn't supposed to work now that clubs have had a year to scout the right-hander. He's yielded one run while posting a 9/1 K/BB ratio and recording six saves in 7 2/3 innings thus far. It's still early, but another few weeks and he'll need to be bumped significantly higher on most rankings. Broxton still looks like an ace closer in waiting and Jon Meloan still looks like the best relief prospect in the game. Fantasy leaguers would love to see one of them dealt, but only with Meloan is that even somewhat plausible. Milwaukee Brewers Closer: Francisco Cordero (Secure) Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva Cordero has given up one hit while notching 10 strikeouts in just six innings thus far. His poor first half with the Rangers last year lowered his perceived value in many leagues, but the astute owner was able to capitalize on that perception this winter. Should Cordero falter, Turnbow is again looking like the elite reliever who posted a 1.74 ERA in 2005. He has 13 strikeouts in seven innings thus far and hasn't allowed a run to score. Minnesota Twins Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In) Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek Although he still hasn't blown a save, Nathan gave up two runs in a tie game against the Devil Rays this week and suffered his first loss of the season. He's also yielded 10 hits in his last four innings of work and has just three strikeouts in six total innings thus far. However, it's still early and this is an incredibly small sample size for someone with such an elite track record over the last few seasons. Don't adjust his value. New York Mets Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In) Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, Ambiorix Burgos It was another fine week for Wagner, who threw two scoreless innings to pick up a pair of saves. Smith has pitched better than Heilman thus far, but it hasn't been enough of a difference to change who would be next in line for saves. New York Yankees Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In) Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino If Alex Rodriguez keeps playing well and performing in the clutch, expect the media to turn their attention to the contract status of manager Joe Torre and Rivera. It's doubtful that playing for a contract for the first time in quite a while will be much of an issue for Rivera, so it's not something that should affect his fantasy value. As long as he can avoid Marco Scutaro, who hit a three-run walk-off homer against him last week, Rivera should be fine. Oakland Athletics Closer: Huston Street (Locked In) Key setup men: Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Alan Embree Street rebounded from giving up three runs and taking a loss last week to throw 3 2/3 scoreless innings while picking up a win and a save this week. I still expect him to be a top eight closer. Philadelphia Phillies Closer: Tom Gordon (Locked In) Key setup men: Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary I never thought I'd have to list Jon Lieber as a key setup man in this space. I couldn't fathom having to replace Lieber on the setup man list with Brett Myers. The Phillies have totally butchered this whole situation. Lieber should have been dealt for a setup man this off-season. Instead, the club refused to accept 90 cents on the dollar and then moved a $7.5 million player who hadn't pitched an inning of relief since 1996 to the bullpen. Now they're demoting their best starter to eighth inning duties after a couple of bad outings. The club clearly isn't happy with Myers' performance to date, but the mishandling of the Lieber situation is what enabled the club to make such a poor decision. Myers should do fine working in the eighth, but he shouldn't be there for long. If getting Myers back in the rotation means the ownership group has to fire manager Charlie Manuel and the entire front office, so be it. Fantasy owners should remain patient and hold on to Myers for now. Pittsburgh Pirates Closer: Salomon Torres (Secure) Key setup men: Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss, Torres gave up three runs over two outings to take a loss last week, then pitched just once over the last seven days. His early season saves lead was bound to vanish at some point, but he remains a fine option. Capps continues to pitch well as a setup man, solidifying his status as the leading candidate for closing duties in the future. San Diego Padres Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell It was a slow week for Hoffman, who pitched just once but was able to record a save. Meredith continues to look like the real deal, having not allowed a run in 8 1/3 innings of work. Bell and Rule 5 pick Kevin Cameron also have looked strong while combining for 16 2/3 scoreless innings, but both remain well behind Linebrink and Meredith in terms of being next in line. San Francisco Giants Closer: Armando Benitez (Secure) Key setup men: Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Jonathan Sanchez Benitez didn't pitch at all this week and still has appeared in just three games total. It's surprising the club didn't use him just to get some work in at some point, but it appears everything is fine with Benitez. Seattle Mariners Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In) Key setup men: Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo, Brandon Morrow Putz still hasn't been given a save opportunity, in part because the Mariners have played just nine games to date. It's unlikely, but maybe the Putz owner in your league has become inpatient due to the slow start. Make an offer if another slow week passes. St. Louis Cardinals Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In) Key setup men: Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer Isringhausen has looked fine through the first three weeks of the season, showing no ill effects from the hip surgery he underwent at the end of last season. He's becoming a better investment as time passes. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Closer: Al Reyes (Secure) Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Ruddy Lugo, Juan Salas Reyes' job security is increasing by the minute. He recorded three saves over the last week and still has yet to give up a run this year. Add in that Stokes and Salas haven't looked ready in setup roles, and Reyes is all but a lock to close for at least a few months this season. Reyes is capable of above average ratios and he'll be quite the asset if the first eight innings continue to go so well. Texas Rangers Closer: Eric Gagne (Secure) Key setup men: Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, C.J. Wilson The Rangers activated Gagne from the disabled list this week, and he recorded a save with a scoreless ninth the same day he was added to the roster. We'll have to wait and see if decreased velocity will hurt Gagne or if he'll be able to work around the issue. Otsuka remains willing and able in the eighth inning role. Toronto Blue Jays Closer: B.J. Ryan (DL), Jason Frasor (Filling-in) Key setup men: Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Accardo The Blue Jays placed Ryan on the disabled list this week with a strained ligament in his elbow. He's expected to miss 4-6 weeks, but the higher end of that range seems much more likely. Ryan could have to undergo Tommy John surgery if he experiences a setback, so he's no lock to return and resume his status as an elite closer in late May. Frasor, who earned 17 saves as a rookie for the Blue Jays back in 2004, will close for now and could resemble an average closer. He's a better pitcher now than he was back in 2004, so Frasor owners shouldn't be looking to dump him on the cheap before Ryan returns. Washington Nationals Closer: Chad Cordero (Locked In) Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Ryan Wagner, Jesus Colome It was a better week for the Nationals, who went 4-2 after starting the season 1-8. Cordero also finally recorded a save with a scoreless ninth against the Braves. However, the right-hander has struggled more than not in the early going, giving up 16 baserunners in just seven innings thus far. It's nothing to worry about yet, and the Nationals' poor play remains a larger source of concern for Cordero owners. |
| | |
| | #95 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Time To Buy Low On Myers It's the third week of fantasy baseball, so the dust is starting to settle a little bit. No one is hitting .400 anymore, and Carl Pavano is where he belongs on the DL. It was an exciting week, with plenty of action relevant to Waiver Wired. American League Tim Wakefield, SP, BOS Three earned runs in 20 innings will get a pitcher owned in a lot of mixed leagues. To me, it's just a fast start reliant on an unsustainably low hit rate. I think he's an iffy start against the Jays on Monday. AL: $14, Mixed: $2. Rob Mackowiak, OF, CHA Someone has to fill the void with Scott Podsednik hurt and Darin Erstad doing his best Darin Erstad imitation. However, Mackowiak just doesn't contribute much in fantasy baseball. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Mark Buehrle, SP, CHA His brilliant no-hitter will make him a popular add if he's available in mixed leagues. Remember that Buehrle had a similar April in 2006 but got demolished in the second half. Keep an eye on his home run rate as your indicator. AL: $16, Mixed: $4. Ryan Shealy, 1B, KCA Shealy is trying his best to play his way out of the first base job in KC, going 4 for 41 with 17 strikeouts. He should be benched but not dropped in AL-only and deep mixed leagues. The 25 HR hitter is still in there somewhere. AL: $7, Mixed: No. Ross Gload, 1B, KCA Gload will see some more time at first with the way Shealy's playing. He can contribute in batting average at the least, and maybe add a little pop for AL-only. AL: $4, Mixed: No. John Buck, C, KCA It's been an insane 25 at-bats for Buck he's at .440/.517/.960 with three home runs. He might have 15+ homers in him if the Royals make Jason LaRue the backup. On the other hand, Buck has had a few 4-6 HR months in his past but has never had sustained success. AL: $11, Mixed: $1. Maicer Izturis, 3B, LAA If you're looking for some swipes and batting average in AL-only while Howie Kendrick is out (probably at least a month), Izturis is your man. You can use him at short or third in most leagues. AL: $8, Mixed: No. Erick Aybar, SS, LAA Aybar should also benefit from Kendrick's misfortune. He's a worse pick than Izturis, though, as his only real fantasy contribution right now is steals. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA - Wood has a good chance of replacing Kendrick on the Angels' roster, and he'd play third base perhaps until Chone Figgins returns in a week or two. I know Wood is described as an automatic, no-brainer pickup, but I'm not so sure. Right now he's a .250 hitter with 20-25 HR pop over 500 ABs. A fine keeper with Troy Glaus-like upside, but Glaus is a career .254 hitter. AL: $6, Mixed: No. Carlos Silva, SP, MIN Silva has begun his year with three surprising solid efforts. He had a very nice year as recently as 2005 (3.44 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). But his margin for error is thin as he strikes out so few. That lack of Ks limits him to AL-only. AL: $10, Mixed: No. Ramon Ortiz, SP, MIN I steered you away from him last week, so he promptly went out and pitched his third gem in a row. His control has been superb, but his low hit rate won't last and his strikeout rate is terrible. His upside is 2004 (4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), but his downside is pretty scary. I'd say there's a 25% chance he has a decent season. AL: $12, Mixed: $1. Chase Wright, SP, NYA Wright won his Major League debut with an OK effort against Cleveland. As a back-rotation southpaw with little high minors experience, he's incredibly risky against the Red Sox on national TV Sunday. AL: No, Mixed: No. Chad Gaudin, SP, OAK I misfired last week in guessing that Gaudin, and not Joe Kennedy, would be skipped this week. Gaudin pitched and had his third strong start of the season. He might be able to maintain a rotation spot with a low 4s ERA. A possible 10 win guy for AL-only. AL: $11, Mixed: No. Jake Woods, SP, SEA Woods will inherit Felix Hernandez's rotation spot for a few weeks. He can avoid getting bombed if he shows some semblance of control. I wouldn't chance it in AL-only. AL: No, Mixed: No. Brendan Harris, SS, TBA Harris has earned four starts in a row, and he's 8 for 21. If he bats second regularly in the currently high-powered Tampa Bay offense, he'll have a little AL-only value for the runs. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Adam Lind, OF, TOR With Reed Johnson out until at least July, Lind will get his chance as Toronto's left fielder and #2 hitter. It's a nice place to hit and Lind is ready for The Show. His fluid swing could result in a .285 average and 15 HR this year if he gets 400 at-bats. He's worth a look in deeper mixed leagues. AL: $13, Mixed: $2. National League Felix Pie, OF, CHN Pie just looks like he belongs in the big leagues. His 0 for 4 last night was deceiving he scalded two line drives at people. He'll be a 30/30 man just like his good friend Alfonso Soriano. When Sori comes back Monday or Tuesday, it may be Jacque Jones pushed to the bench or off the club. Those in NL-only and keeper leagues should definitely snag him. The hype around this Pie is definitely not fluff (obligatory pastry joke? Check.) NL: $11, Mixed: $1. Angel Guzman, SP, CHN Pie's promotion sent Guzman back to Triple A, where he'll get in shape to start again. He could supplant Wade Miller as the Cubs' fifth starter in a few weeks. He would chip in with some strikeouts in NL-only. NL: $1, Mixed: No. Ryan Theriot, 2B, CHN The Riot is having quite a lark on the basepaths, swiping his fifth last night. He got a little greedy and tried stealing third; Brayan Pena didn't find that amusing. Since his bat remains hot and Lou Piniella adores him, Theriot can be considered in mixed leagues. NL: $12, Mixed: $1. Matt Albers, SP, HOU Albers has a very strong arsenal and plenty of movement on his pitches. He'll make a handful of starts in place of Jason Jennings and could be a decent short-term NL-only option. NL: $2, Mixed: No. Henry Owens, RP, FLA Fredi Gonzalez is "92% sure" that Owens is his closer. That didn't stop him from using Owens in the ninth last night with the Mets up by seven. As is the rule, Owens promptly gave up a few runs in the non-save situation. Not cool, Fredi. Owens should be owned in all leagues right now, anyway. NL: $20, Mixed: $11. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL Jimenez can bring it, and he offsets his high-90s heater with a plus changeup. He's the most intriguing choice to fill in for Rodrigo Lopez for a few weeks. He's still pretty raw though so you should pass even if he does get the call. NL: No, Mixed: No. Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN Last week it was only two home runs, now it's five. Hamilton needs to be owned in all leagues at least until Wonderboy breaks. I can't believe Hamilton is doing this after so much time off, and have no idea when or if pitchers will adjust. No one saw this coming a few months ago that's what's great about baseball. NL: $18, Mixed: $5. Mark Hendrickson, SP, LAN Hendrickson got his first start of the season last night and won it (although his April 14th stint in relief of Jason Schmidt was 5+ innings). If he continues to limit the free passes, an NL-only pickup may be in order. NL: $3, Mixed: No. Brett Myers, RP, PHI Big news of the week, Myers is now a middle reliever. Way to maximize the value of your second best starter, Phillies. An injury in the rotation or Lieber trade is bound to happen within six weeks, so his owners need not panic. Still, mixed leaguers may consider benching him unless he starts closing. This could be a nice time to trade for Myers. And if Myers was dropped in your league you need to find a more competitive league. Pick him up. NL: $28, Mixed: $14. Jon Lieber, SP, PHI Liebs is hopefully being showcased for a trade. He turns all lefties into Johnny Damons, but still has his uses in NL-only while starting. Spot him against the weaker clubs, and hope he's motivated to earn a trade and lay off the Big Macs. NL: $3, Mixed: No. |
| | |
| | #96 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Good News on Felix, Howard Both the Mariners and Phillies received good news on their injured superstars Thursday, although Ryan Howard will be back in the lineup long before Felix Hernandez returns to the mound. X-rays reportedly showed that Howard suffered no significant damage after tweaking his knee Wednesday. He's been diagnosed with a strained ligament and sat out Thursday's game, but the Phillies are hoping that he can return by Monday. Disaster averted. Meanwhile in Seattle, King Felix has been diagnosed with a "flexor-pronator strain inside his right elbow." That sounds really bad, but the team's medical director called it "as good news as you can get from an elbow injury" because Hernandez has no structural damage. He'll be shut down for five days and is expected to miss 2-3 starts, meaning a trip to the disabled list is coming, but Mariners fans can officially breath again. While we test the limits of how happy a fan base can be to learn that Cha Seung Baek could be stepping into the starting rotation for a few weeks, here are some other notes from around baseball * Joe Borowski's monumental blowup against the Yankees Thursday afternoon was painful to watch and all the more dramatic because New York's new favorite player, Alex Rodriguez, launched a three-run, walk-off homer. Rodriguez's blast to center field capped a six-run bottom of the ninth inning, with the entire rally starting after Borowski recorded two quick outs. As Borowski said after watching his ERA balloon from 5.06 to 13.50, "It was like batting practice." Rodriguez has reached 10 homers faster than anyone in American League history, two of them have been walk-off shots, his 26 RBIs are twice as many as anyone else in the league, and through 14 games he's on pace for a .351-115-300 season. Seriously, 115 homers and 300 RBIs. Do you think a 300-RBI season would keep the Yankee Stadium crowd from booing him after his first strikeout in October? While driving in two runs per game for an entire season is almost as improbable as Rodriguez permanently getting on the good side of Yankees fans, there's no doubt that he's in essentially the perfect situation for RBIs hitting behind three speedy on-base machines in Johnny Damon (career OBP of .354), Derek Jeter (.388), and Bobby Abreu (.412). As Borowski learned the hard way Thursday, making your way through that lineup can be a nightmare. * Alfonso Soriano tested his injured hamstring by running Thursday, with manager Lou Piniella saying afterward that it was "encouraging" while suggesting that Soriano could "be ready to play on Monday or Tuesday." Soriano is scheduled to test the hamstring again Saturday, at which point he could be cleared to return. Meanwhile, Felix Pie again started in place of Soriano in center field, but was dropped to eighth in the lineup against a left-hander and went 0-for-4. The odds were against Pie sticking with the Cubs once Soriano returned regardless of how well he played, but a 2-for-14 start almost guarantees that he'll be headed back to Triple-A soon. Barring another injury (always a possibility with Cliff Floyd and now Soriano) or a trade (Jacque Jones has been rumored to be on the block at various points) Pie may not be in Chicago again until the second half. * Chien-Ming Wang allowed three runs over five innings in a minor-league rehab start Thursday at Single-A, after which team vice president Billy Connors pronounced him "ready to go." Wang threw 74 pitches in what is expected to be the final step in his recovery from a spring hamstring injury. Barring a last-minute setback, he's expected to return from the disabled list to start Tuesday against the Devil Rays. * Along with the good news they received Thursday on Wang, the Yankees got some bad news on pitching prospect Humberto Sanchez. A 23-year-old right-hander acquired from the Tigers in the Gary Sheffield trade this offseason, Sanchez underwent Tommy John elbow surgery and will miss the entire season. General manager Brian Cashman said that he "knew there was a chance it needed to be fixed" when the Yankees dealt for Sanchez, but "looked at it long term." * One day after Willy Aybar was suspended indefinitely by the Braves for going AWOL from the team, his agent said Thursday that he's "dealing with drinking and drugs" and "doesn't want anybody to help him" because "he's embarrassed." Assistant general manager Frank Wren said that the Braves are "just in a waiting mode" until Aybar meets with the players' association, but gave no indication that the team expects to have him back in the near future. AL Quick Hits: Luis Castillo looks likely to be sidelined for several games after limping off the field Thursday with a quadriceps injury, giving rookie Alexi Casilla at-bats Jay Payton (hamstring) is set to return Friday, but manager Sam Perlozzo has indicated that he may not be starting right away Carl Pavano has been shut down for a week with what the team is calling a mild elbow strain Unhappy that manager John Gibbons took him out after just 95 pitches Thursday, Roy Halladay then watched as the bullpen coughed up the lead and his win Despite sitting out his second straight game Thursday, Torii Hunter (shoulder) remains confident that he'll avoid the disabled list Soon after manager Ron Washington talked of making him a part-time player, Sammy Sosa has forced his way back into the lineup with three homers in five games Manny Ramirez's game-tying two-run homer Thursday was his first long ball in 51 at-bats dating back to last season. NL Quick Hits: Miguel Cabrera (oblique) reportedly expects to avoid the disabled list, but could miss this weekend's action after leaving Thursday's game After giving up two runs over six innings Thursday at Triple-A, Randy Johnson (back) is ready to return Chris Carpenter (elbow) began a throwing program Thursday and is aiming for a return early next month Manager Phil Garner said Thursday that he plans to give Craig Biggio three games off within the next week, with Mark Loretta likely starting in his place Kerry Wood (shoulder) has yet to begin throwing and no timetable has been established for his return Rodrigo Lopez's shockingly strong start will be put on hold for at least two weeks thanks to elbow tightness An MRI on Mike Gonzalez's sore elbow reportedly showed no significant damage, although Gonzalez said Thursday that it did reveal "a little bit of inflammation" After narrowly missing a homer in the first inning Thursday, Josh Hamilton went deep later anyway for his fifth long ball in 10 days. |
| | |
| | #97 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Week That Was A look at the hottest hitter on the planet, slumps, injuries and Schultz's cogent analysis of "stuff" in this week's Week That Was. Randy Wolf:: . Randy Wolf looked strong Friday night, striking out 10 Pirates in just 6 innings. To date, Wolf has three wins and a 3.38 ERA. If you realized that Wolf is a quality pitcher in his second year post-surgery pitching in a pitcher's park, good for you. If the Wolf owner in your league thinks he has a sell high candidate on his hands, oblige him Wolf should be a quality starter all year. Mike Sweeney: Mike Sweeney finally had a good game Friday night, including his first dinger of the year. Yes, it is fair to assume that Sweeney will spend time on the shelf when his balky back acts up. However, it is not fair to assume that he has suddenly forgotten how to hit. I would bank on 400 AB with numbers similar to his 2004/2005 injury interrupted campaigns. In other words, I think it is fair to assume Mike will hit .280 with 20 HR and 80 RBI. Trumpet the fact that Sweeney was hitting only .195 in the middle of this week and you could land some quality stats cheap. Dan Uggla: Dan Uggla had an ugly night (ok I could not resist the pathetic play on words) Friday night, going hitless in 6 AB, striking out three times. Thus far, Uggla is hitting only .215. Is he suddenly this bad? No. Was he the quintessential sophomore slump candidate after coming out of nowhere in 2006 and posting numbers his minor league record just could not support? Yes. If you paid a modest price for Uggla, no worries, he will be OK (though not great). On the other hand, if you ignored the warning signs and paid big for a risky soph in that hitters' park, shame on you. Mariano Rivera: Yuck! This may be the ugliest week the great Mariano Rivera has ever had. Two save chances, two blown saves. Is it time to panic? Is Mariano done? No, No and No. Before the ugly two blown saves, Mariano had 4 scoreless innings in which he gave up just ONE hit. Yes, the blow saves were ugly. However, I believe this is a product of lack of consistent work (the Yankees blow out opponents or get blown out). If someone in your league is ready to trade the best closer ever for a discount, DO IT. Torre will find a way to insure a more steady workflow for Mo and the results will be exactly what you expect them to be stellar. Alex Rodriguez: ARod blasted two more dingers Friday night to increase his absurd season totals to 12 HR and 30 RBI in just 15 games. Just for fun, lets do the math he is on pace for 120 + HR and 320+ RBI not too shabby! Should you sell high if you own ARod? No. Leaving all of this year's hype aside and ignoring the unfounded criticism of last year, ARod remains the best player in the game. You own him, you keep him. It is that simple. Mark Teixeira: Big Tex is off to another slow start. As of Thursday, he was looking up at the Mendoza line, with a weak.192 average. It appears that slow starts are becoming a pattern. However, this will not last. Teixeira is a hitting machine who will hit. Count on it. Orlando Hernandez: El Duque struck out 10 in his Thursday gem against the Marlins. With three quality starts and high K numbers, El Duque is looking good. When you consider that the Mets will score in bunches, that El Duque struck out more than one batter per inning last year, and that Shea is a pitcher's park, you have a quality, high K, high W veteran pitcher on your hands. Nicely done. Felix Hernandez: Reports out of Seattle are that Felix "King Felix" Hernandez will miss at least two to three starts with an elbow/forearm strain. This is tough stuff for roto-owners as it could determine the fate of your team. At least one roto-expert bailed on King Felix dealing him in LABR for two lesser starters. If you own Felix in a keeper league, you probably have to hold, however, given his young age and dramatic exit from a game, you have to be worried. For those in non-keeper leagues, I would dump him now before it is too late. Howie Kendrick: Reports are that Howie Kendrick will miss 4-6 weeks with the finger injury. The question is whether he will have a full-time role when he returns. Macier Itzturis continues to show that he deserves serious playing time and Chone Figgins will be back from injury before Kendrick. If you own Kendrick, you should be very concerned. However, if you were smart enough to back him up with Itzturis, then your worries are very much reduced. As to those rumors that Brandon Wood will get the call, they were just that rumors. The Angels called up Kendry Morales instead. Mike Gonzalez: In an announcement that should surprise no one, word is that Mike Gonzalez is scheduled to have an MRI for a sore left elbow. While the Braves and Gonzalez are saying all of the requisite positive stuff, there is reason to worry. Thus far, Gonzalez has walked a batter per inning and has allowed a whopping 14 base runners in 6 innings. Given that Rafael Soriano and Bob Wickman are ahead of him, Gonzalez's value is very low at this point. If you can get value for him, do it. Otherwise, wait to see if he has a few good innings, then move him. Why the Braves parted with Adam Laroche for a questionable health pitcher and the right to play Scott Thorman is one of those questions that boggles my mind. And last, but not least, this week's Schultz Says: "Lily Tomlin used to have a routine where she suggested that insane people in New York who talk to themselves should be paired up so that it would like they were having a conversation. If she were alive today, she would probably update the bit to make it about yammerheads on their wireless cell phones talking into thin air. Now how does this relate to baseball? Surely Charlie Manuel had to be joking around on one of those things when he announced Brett Myers' demotion to the bullpen. He just didn't realize reporters and cameras were around when he said it out loud and now he's stuck with the decision. From a real life baseball standpoint, there might be little sound logic to moving your Opening Day starter to the 7th inning - especially after you just gave him $25.75 million over the next 3 years. No one other than the Baltimore Orioles signs set-up pitchers to those kinds of deals. From a fantasy standpoint, Charlie Manuel may have done Myers owners a favor. If Myers is in the rotation, you can't bench him. Seeing as he looked horrible while racking up a 9.39 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, benching him while he works out his problems in the pen might be a blessing in disguise. Stash him on your bench, wait this out for a month and insert someone who can keep his ERA under 9.00 in the process. Felix Hernandez' recent elbow scare does not bode well for anyone banking on the phenom becoming an innings-eating monster this year. The Mariners have always been on the fence on treating him with kid gloves or letting him loose and this latest setback won't be any type of positive reinforcement for letting him throw deep into games. Seattle's brain trust surely recalls that not even a year ago, Francisco Liriano rode the roller coaster from most dominant pitcher in the AL to the Tommy John surgical table. If you own King Felix, follow closely how the Mariners handle him. If they think they can ride him for 7-8 innings a start, odds are he'll break down. Even with the injury issue looming over him, you can likely get full value for him based on his reputation. However, trading him will take a level of resolve and nerves of steel that, quite frankly, most fantasy owners don't have. One last note, save your cards, letters and charming e-mails, I'm aware Lily Tomlin is still alive and that she is the star of a new HBO series as well as a charming non-leaked-by-George-Clooney youtube clip." Response: Separating the wheat from the chaff and the sarcasm from the serious, there are a few nuggets here happy hunting. |
| | |
| | #98 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| AL Future Callups Instead of the traditional news and notes, the focus this week is on minor leaguers with the potential to help in fantasy leagues before the end of the year. I do have some notes on a few of the major stories of the past week at the end of the column. Up next week are the May player rankings. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks American League Minor Leaguers Baltimore - Since most of the Orioles' top offensive prospects were at least a year away, the club made a big effort to bring in useful minor league free agents over the winter. Jon Knott, J.R. House, Jason Dubois and Terry Tiffee are all potential contributors. Knott, who was called up and sent down last week, is probably the best bet of the group to end the season with 200 at-bats and 8-10 homers. House has nearly as much offensive ability and is catcher eligible, so he has the most upside of the group. Right forearm stiffness took Hayden Penn out of the mix to replace the injured Jaret Wright in the rotation last week, but there's little doubt that he'll get a look within the next couple of months and he should prove to be better equipped to handle it at age 22. While he won't be worthy of an immediate pickup in AL-only leagues following his addition, he still possesses No. 3-starter potential. Reliever Jamey Hoey was rushed to the majors last August, and the Orioles determined ahead of time that he wouldn't be a candidate to win a bullpen spot this spring. Still, don't be surprised to see him in a seventh-inning role for the club by the middle of the summer. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks Boston - In outfielders David Murphy and Brandon Moss and relievers Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen, the Red Sox have a few players in Triple-A that could make an impact in the event of trades. Murphy would fit best as a fourth outfielder, but there is a chance he could wind up as some team's center fielder come August. Hansen still has closer potential, though he's not nearly there yet and his lack of progress suggests he might end up as a first-round bust. No one in the group figures to have any fantasy value in Boston before 2008. Devern Hansack's terrific start at Triple-A Pawtucket has opened up the possibility that he might take Julian Tavarez's rotation spot. He could do a fair Bronson Arroyo impression his first time around the league. However, he's at risk of being overtaken by Jon Lester if he doesn't get his chance within the next few weeks. If Jason Varitek has to take his withered bat with him to the DL at some point, George Kottaras' on-base skills could make him a welcome addition to Boston's lineup. Still, he's probably a year away from being an asset. www.eogcontests.com www.therx.wswww.therx.info Chicago - Since Ozzie Guillen is showing so little interest in using him, it figures that Brian Anderson will eventually be sent down and later recalled. But who really knows? It's better than 50/50 that the 25-year-old will be in another organization next spring. If not Anderson, then perhaps Ryan Sweeney will get a look later this year. He's beginning to show major league power, and he's a fine right fielder capable of playing center. Ideally, the White Sox would have him spend the entire year in the minors and then install him in right next season if Jermaine Dye leaves. Because of his speed, Jerry Owens can't be forgotten about. Still, he looks like a long-term reserve. Josh Fields will make a significant impact if Joe Crede gets hurt or is traded for pitching in July. Because he has 20-homer power and likes to steal bases, he's worth having stashed away now. The White Sox have plenty of intriguing starters on the farm, but no particularly good bets to be of value this year. Charlie Haeger, Heath Phillips and Gavin Floyd lack upside, and Gio Gonzalez and Adam Russell are probably a year away. Lance Broadway may be the best bet of the group for the second half. www.sportspickwinners.comwww.fantasysportspicks.com Cleveland - Adam Miller pitched well enough in spring training to win a rotation spot, but the Indians decided to stick with Fausto Carmona as the replacement for the injured Cliff Lee. Miller hasn't been quite as outstanding since a demotion to Triple-A, but he's still in position to make an impact at some point. Of AL pitchers currently in the minors, only Phil Hughes, Andrew Miller and Matt Garza look like better bets for the second half of the season. Shin-Soo Choo was poised to be the Indians' primary right fielder before the late signing of Trot Nixon. Expect him to get another chance when either Nixon or David Dellucci lands on the DL. He still could end up with 300 at-bats, 10 homers and eight steals. Ed Mujica is worthy of a spot in the Cleveland bullpen right now after posting a 2.95 ERA in 18 1/3 innings for the team last year. He's back closing in Triple-A instead, but he should be up for good by the end of May or June. Don't rule him out as a sleeper saves candidate. Hector Luna disappointed the Indians by showing up to camp out of shape and then playing terrible defense last month. Still, he's a useful utilityman capable of amassing a little fantasy value if he ends up back in the NL. Detroit - Even though Andrew Miller opened the year back in the FSL, he's probably the team's best option as a fifth starter with Kenny Rogers out. Chad Durbin isn't getting the job done, fellow prospect Jordan Tata is sidelined with a sore shoulder and last year's surprise, Zach Miner, has been lit up in Triple-A to date. Since the Tigers haven't given any indication that they're willing to move Wilfredo Ledezma out of the pen, my guess is that Miller will have the job by mid-May. He'll be worth using immediately, even if he does figure to be inconsistent. If not Miller, perhaps sinkerballer Dallas Trahern will get a chance. He'd likely have problems once AL teams begin stacking left-handers against him, but he'd get enough grounders initially to give the Tigers some quality starts. He projects as a long-term No. 3. Sean Casey's slump will have to last at least a few more weeks before the Tigers consider going to Chris Shelton. While a Casey injury is always a possibility, Shelton's best hope for this year is a trade. The Tigers turned to Brent Clevlen last year even though he was struggling in Double-A, and he did an excellent job at first. He'd like be in line for another callup in the event of injuries to the outfield this year. Still, since they already have Marcus Thames in reserve and Gary Sheffield capable of playing right field, a couple of things would have to break right for Clevlen to have any fantasy value. Kansas City - Nothing Mike Sweeney has done so far suggests he'll be a quality DH this year. The Royals still won't be quick to call up Billy Butler, but a Sweeney injury could get him to the majors, and if he hits up to his ability, it will be hard to send him back down. Butler has the potential to win a batting title and hit 25 or 30 homers per year in the majors. 2006 No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar figures to debut come August or September. He's unlikely to be a big asset initially, but he should be a fair middle-of-the-rotation starter in 2008. Brian Bannister is next in line for a spot and is expected to get his chance this week. He might be able to establish himself at the back of the rotation, but it's unlikely he'll have more than minimal fantasy value. Joey Gathright has been a walking machine in Triple-A so far, giving him a .467 OBP. The Royals will call him up if they ever find a taker for Reggie Sanders or Emil Brown. Though the plan will be to use him as a reserve, his speed will give him fantasy value. Angel Berroa is doing nothing more than hitting for an empty average while playing shortstop and third base at Omaha. He's a long way from convincing the Royals he's worthy of another shot. Los Angeles - The Angels just called up Kendry Morales, picking him over Brandon Wood with Howie Kendrick sidelined. With a .291/.316/.382 line, Morales wasn't doing much in Triple-A, though one gets the idea the Angels did little but look beyond the average. If he's not going to play over Shea Hillenbrand now, the odds are against him having much value this year. Wood has warmed up after a weak start at Salt Lake and may be a factor in the second half. It's likely to be another year or two before he's ready to hit for average, but the converted third baseman already possesses 25-homer power. He'd be worth picking up if he's recalled. With Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver back, the Angels are hoping they don't have to dip into the minors for another starter anytime soon. However, Nick Adenhart is solidifying his status as one of the game's elite pitching prospects and could be ready to contribute after the break. Terry Evans, who was acquired for Jeff Weaver last year, could be needed as a fourth outfielder or become trade bait in July. He has decent power and speed, so he is worth watching, even if he doesn't project as a regular. Long-time prospect Jeff Mathis is still waiting for his opportunity. He could start for another team if traded. Minnesota - The Twins' top three prospects Matt Garza, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey all began the season in Triple-A Rochester's rotation. Perkins is up already, but he's in the pen and may have no better of a chance of joining the rotation anytime soon than the other two. Garza is still the most interesting of the pitchers from a fantasy perspective, though he hasn't matched Slowey's numbers this month. Slowey's pinpoint command and quality change could make him very effective the first-time around the league. Any of the three guys would be worth using right away in AL-only leagues if given a spot. Last year's fifth starter, Scott Baker, is also at Rochester. The Twins have soured on him, but he'd be a sleeper if traded, particularly if he goes to an NL team. Especially with Alexi Casilla up, the Twins have little in the minors capable of helping on offense. Denard Span and Matt Moses are at least a year away. So is Casilla, though at least his speed would give him value if he's forced into regular duty. Matthew LeCroy is probably the best bet of the Twins' hitters in Triple-A. He could serve as a DH against lefties if the club decides it'd make sense to have some power available off the bench. New York - It's all about Phil Hughes, even if he wasn't the first starter called up by the Yankees. He probably won't even be the second, with Ross Ohlendorf and Tyler Clippard also available to fill in. Still, Hughes is the game's best pitching prospect and it'd be a surprise if he doesn't amass some fantasy value in the second half of the season. Expect 12-15 starts and an ERA below 4.00. The Bombers have already called up Chase Wright, though he could head back to the minors before the end of the week. The left-hander has better raw stuff than either Ohlendorf or Clippard and is probably the best sleeper of the trio for this year. Clippard remains the top long-term prospect of the Yankees' more advanced pitchers. The Yankees shouldn't have to turn to Triple-A for much offensive help this year. Kevin Thompson has already joined the team and is a perfectly serviceable reserve outfielder. However, he's due to return to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with Hideki Matsui (hamstring) getting activated on Monday. Shortstop Alberto Gonzalez would be a better option than Miguel Cairo in the event of a Derek Jeter injury, but there's little fantasy upside there. Andy Phillips will be available as a right-handed bat off the bench if needed. Oakland - Travis Buck's surprise inclusion on the Opening Day roster has left the A's with few 2007 sleepers in the minors. First baseman Daric Barton remains an excellent prospect, but he doesn't yet have the power to be of a lot of help to the A's or to fantasy teams. In fact, the club could bypass him in favor of Jason Stokes if a first baseman or DH is required later on. Kurt Suzuki should be Oakland's catcher of the future, but he's probably not going to hit for average or power if brought up this year. In the outfield, veteran Hiram Bocachica looks like the leading candidate for a callup. He'd supply some power off the bench if the A's ever have the need. Similarly, the A's lack high-level pitchers with upside. Brad Halsey has rebounded from a poor spring and figures to be the first starter called up. Jason Windsor has fifth starter written all over him. Screwballer Dallas Braden is somewhat interesting because of his trick pitch. He probably won't last as a starter, but he could have some success until the league figures him out. Seattle - The Mariners apparently have picked Cha Seung Baek over Jake Woods to made a couple of starts in place of Felix Hernandez. Both had some success in the rotation over the final two months of last year. While Woods has the better stuff of the two, he struggles to throw strikes too often. Baek can give a team five or six reasonable innings every five days, but his mediocre fastball makes it tough for him to get through lineups three times. Neither will be more than a spot starter in AL-only leagues. Jeremy Reed's poor spring cost him a roster spot, and he hasn't been any better at Triple-A Tacoma so far. If the Mariners had to replace Ichiro Suzuki, they might go to top prospect Adam Jones first. Reed could use a trade, but the Mariners asked for too much in return over the winter and his value is down now. Jones wasn't nearly ready when called on to play center field last year, but he likely is the future at the position and he should be able to make a modest contribution on offense if he gets another shot in the unlikely event of a Suzuki trade. First baseman Bryan LaHair would be an option if either Richie Sexson or Jose Vidro lands on the DL, but with Ben Broussard still on the roster, it seems unlikely that he'll be needed. Tampa Bay - Jorge Cantu is the only hitter at Triple-A Durham likely to make an impact in the majors this year, and he'll probably do it somewhere outside of Tampa Bay. The problem there is that he's made it tough for any team to look at him as a second baseman. The Rays position prospects with the best chance of helping out in the second half are both in Double-A. Reid Brignac is likely to get an audition at short if Ben Zobrist keeps struggling, though it's doubtful it will happen before the All-Star break. Maybe he'll have some fantasy value come August. Evan Longoria's path to the majors isn't so clear, but the Rays could eventually move Akinori Iwamura to second base to make room for him, with B.J. Upton potentially going to the outfield. Since there's more that needs to happen in front of him, Longoria seems like a weaker bet for this year, though he'd likely outhit Brignac if the opportunity is there. In J.P. Howell, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann, Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot, the Rays have five youngsters with a real chance of joining the rotation in the second half. Niemann easily has the most upside of the group and would be the only one worthy of an immediate pickup. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sonnanstine pitch particularly well his first time around the league. Seth McClung and Chad Orvella remain sleepers for saves, though neither has done enough yet to prove the demotion was a bad idea. Texas - The Rangers have outfielders aplenty to call on if they need to replace Sammy Sosa or Brad Wilkerson. Marlon Byrd, who should have made the team as Kenny Lofton's platoonmate, is batting .381 in 42 at-bats for Oklahoma. Victor Diaz and Jason Botts are capable of supplying ample power in part-time roles, and Freddy Guzman's speed means he can't be completely written off. Botts is the best fantasy sleeper of the group, even if Diaz is off to a much better start in the PCL. Josh Rupe is probably ahead of him in line for a rotation spot, but top prospect Eric Hurley is the lone starter in the minors of much interest for this year. He's 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in 18 1/3 innings for Double-A Frisco. Only because of the ballpark would he not be worth using right away in AL-only leagues should he get a spot in June or July. Reliever Wes Littleton is on the verge of returning to the majors after overcoming some major difficulties this spring. He could have a little fantasy value while aiding the Rangers in a setup role. Toronto - Adam Lind is already up to serve as a replacement for the injured Reed Johnson, leaving the Jays with very little of interest on the farm. John-Ford Griffin is crushing Triple-A pitching this year after a lousy 2006, but no one seems to think he's capable of doing it in the majors and he's a natural DH anyway. Ray Olmedo is no weaker of an option at shortstop than Royce Clayton, but he lacks any real fantasy upside. Russ Adams, who is playing second base regularly, is batting .217/.345/.283 in 46 at-bats. It's unlikely the Jays will go back to him anytime soon. With a 1.80 ERA and a 22/6 K/BB ratio in Triple-A, Dustin McGowan may finally be on his way to fulfilling his potential. Of course, he has teased before. The Jays will have to try him at the back of the rotation if he keeps this up for another month or so, but he wouldn't be recommended in AL-only leagues right away. News of the Week - As much as I'd love to blame Mike Hargrove for Felix Hernandez's early elbow injury, it'd hardly be fair to do so. Hargrove could have taken Hernandez out after eight in his shutout of the Red Sox, but it probably wouldn't have mattered. The important thing is that Hernandez's injury is supposed to be minor, and if it causes the Mariners to exercise more caution after he returns, it could end up being a blessing. Baek is expected to replace Felix in the rotation and start Monday in Texas. He's not worth using then, but he could be in his weekend start against the Royals. Jeff Weaver's terrible showing to date has created the possibility that Baek could stick around after Hernandez's return. - The Angels dodged a bullet when Vladimir Guerrero avoided a broken hand on a HBP Monday. They weren't so lucky two days later, as their second best hitter, Howie Kendrick, suffered a non-displaced fracture when the same thing happened to him. The Angels declined to call up Brandon Wood to replace him, meaning both Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis will play regularly until Chone Figgins comes off the DL, something that could happen in about a week. Aybar is worth using in AL-only leagues this week. After Figgins is activated, Izturis figures to slide over to second and play fairly regularly. Kendrick could be back in late May. - One horrendous appearance against the Yankees didn't cost Joe Borowski his job, but it seems doubtful that he'll remain the Indians' closer all year. Rafael Betancourt looks like the team's best reliever, and since he did get three late saves last year, maybe manager Eric Wedge won't be so afraid to go to him as he has been in the past. He's worth having on reserve even in shallow mixed leagues. Another sleeper is Fernando Cabrera, who has struck out 10 in 8 2/3 scoreless innings this season. He has the most upside of any of the Indians' relievers and shouldn't be left unowned in any AL-only leagues. www.theplayersparadise.comwww.tampabaybuccaneers.ws - It happens every year: Mariano Rivera blows back-to-back save chances early on, gets "What's wrong with him?" columns written about him in every New York paper and then goes and converts 37 of 40 save chances the rest of the way. I'm still expecting the same to happen this year, but there really is more reason for concern now than ever before. He's lacked both movement and the ability to spot his pitches in losses to the A's and Red Sox. I'd be more worried if not for the fact that he was his usual dominant self in spring training. The lack of activity probably has had something to do with his early struggles. Maybe he's hurting, but I can't imagine the Yankees would let him pitch through it not in April -- if they thought anything was wrong. If Rivera does land on the DL, Scott Proctor figures to be the first option for saves, though Kyle Farnsworth would also likely be just fine in the role. |
| | |
| | #99 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Return of the Big Unit Chien-Ming Wang, Randy Johnson and Kelvim Escobar are all set to come off the shelf and get two starts in week four, while Hideki Matsui and Cliff Lee are also nearing their returns. Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Mr. No-No Mark Buehrle headline this week's two-start hurlers. We'll get you caught up in this edition of the The Week Ahead. Two-start pitchers: Great options: Johan Santana MIN vs. CLE Fausto Carmona, @ DET Jeremy Bonderman Roy Halladay TOR @ BOS Julian Tavarez, vs. TEX Vicente Padilla Dontrelle Willis FLA vs. ATL Kyle Davies, @ PHI Jamie Moyer Jeremy Bonderman DET @ LAA Kelvim Escobar, vs. MIN Johan Santana Erik Bedard BAL vs. OAK Dan Haren, @ CLE Jeremy Sowers Randy Johnson ARI vs. SD David Wells, vs. SF Matt Morris Kelvim Escobar LAA vs. DET Jeremy Bonderman, @ CHW Javier Vazquez Carlos Zambrano CHC vs. MIL Claudio Vargas, @ STL Kip Wells Aaron Harang CIN @ STL Kip Wells, @ PIT Paul Maholm Dan Haren OAK @ BAL Erik Bedard, vs. TB Casey Fossum Scott Kazmir TB vs. NYY Chien-Ming Wang, @ OAK Rich Harden Jered Weaver LAA vs. DET Mike Maroth, @ CHW Mark Buehrle Rich Harden OAK @ BAL Jeremy Guthrie, vs. TB Scott Kazmir Mark Buehrle CHW @ KC Gil Meche, vs. LAA Jered Weaver More strong options: Javier Vazquez CHW @ KC Brian Bannister, vs. LAA Kelvim Escobar Chien-Ming Wang NYY @ TB Scott Kazmir, vs. BOS Julian Tavarez Kevin Millwood TEX vs. SEA Brandon Morrow, @ TOR Tomo Ohka Kei Igawa NYY @ TB Casey Fossum, vs. BOS Tim Wakefield Gil Meche KC vs. CHW Mark Buehrle, @ SEA Brandon Morrow John Maine NYM vs. COL Taylor Buchholz, @ WAS Jason Bergmann Derek Lowe LA vs. SF Matt Morris, @ SD David Wells Jeremy Sowers CLE @ MIN Carlos Silva, vs. BAL Erik Bedard Tim Wakefield BOS vs. TOR Tomo Ohka, @ NYY Kei Igawa Matt Morris SF @ LA Derek Lowe, @ ARI Randy Johnson Vicente Padilla TEX vs. SEA Jarrod Washburn, @ TOR Roy Halladay Jamie Moyer PHI vs. WAS Jason Bergmann, vs. FLA Dontrelle Willis Kip Wells STL vs. CIN Aaron Harang, vs. CHC Carlos Zambrano Claudio Vargas MIL @ CHC Carlos Zambrano, @ HOU Woody Williams Adam Eaton PHI vs. HOU Chris Sampson, vs. FLA TBA Mike Maroth DET @ LAA Jered Weaver, vs. MIN Carlos Silva Chris Sampson HOU @ PHI Adam Eaton, vs. MIL Dave Bush Jarrod Washburn SEA @ TEX Vicente Padilla, vs. KC Brian Bannister Carlos Silva MIN vs. CLE Jeremy Sowers, @ DET Mike Maroth Kyle Davies ATL @ FLA Dontrelle Willis, @ COL Taylor Buchholz Woody Williams HOU @ PIT Paul Maholm, vs. MIL Claudio Vargas David Wells SD @ ARI Randy Johnson, vs. LA Derek Lowe Other two-starters: Paul Maholm PIT vs. HOU Woody Williams, vs. CIN Aaron Harang Jason Bergmann WAS @ PHI Jamie Moyer, vs. NYM John Maine Julian Tavarez BOS vs. TOR Roy Halladay, @ NYY Chien-Ming Wang Casey Fossum TB vs. NYY Kei Igawa, @ OAK Dan Haren Tomo Ohka TOR @ BOS Tim Wakefield, vs. TEX Kevin Millwood Brandon Morrow SEA @ TEX Kevin Millwood, vs. KC Gil Meche Jeremy Guthrie BAL vs. OAK Rich Harden, @ CLE Fausto Carmona Brian Bannister KC vs. CHW Javier Vazquez, @ SEA Jarrod Washburn Taylor Buchholz COL @ NYM John Maine, vs. ATL Kyle Davies Team-by-team Game Totals: Seven-game schedule: BAL, BOS, CHW, CLE, DET, HOU, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, PHI, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR Six-game schedule: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, MIL, NYM, LA, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS Five-game schedule: none Rain threatened games: Monday, April 23: MIL @ CHC (40%) Tuesday, April 24: CHW @ KC (40%), CIN @ STL (40%) Wednesday, April 25: HOU @ PIT (40%), CIN @ STL (40%) Thursday, April 26: CIN @ STL (40%), TEX @ CLE (40%), HOU @ PIT (40%), WAS @ PHI (40%), BOS @ BAL (40%), DET @ CHW (40%) Friday, April 27: BOS @ NYY (40%), FLA @ PHI (40%), NYM @ WAS (40%) Saturday, April 28: MIN @ DET (40%), BAL @ CLE (40%), CIN @ PIT (40%) Sunday, April 29: LA @ SD (40%), MIL @ HOU (60%), FLA @ PHI (40%) Stadium Factor: ESPN.com - MLB - Park Factor Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. Top Hitter's Park Schedules: 1. Comerica Park (Tigers) 1.763 runs 3 vs MIN 2. Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.634 runs 2 vs TOR 3. Coors Field (Rockies) 1.591 runs 3 vs ATL 5. U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) 1.445 runs 2 vs DET, 3 vs CHW 6. Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 1.373 runs 2 vs TOR, 3 vs BOS No Games: 4. Great American Ballpark (Reds) 1.493 runs Top Pitcher's Park Schedules: 1. Jacobs Field (Indians) 0.569 runs 2 vs TEX, 3 vs BAL 2. Camden Yards (Orioles) 0.630 runs 2 vs OAK, 2 vs BOS 3. Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.656 runs 3 vs MIL 4. Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) 0.678 runs 3 vs TEX 5. Petco Park (Padres) 0.695 runs 3 vs LA Caught Stealing %: Toughest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%) 1. David Ross, CIN 0-for-2 (100.0%) 3 @ STL, 3 @ PIT 2. Bengie Molina, SF 1-for-3 (66.7%) 3 @ LA, 3 @ ARI 3. Yadier Molina, STL 3-for-8 (62.5%) 3 vs CIN, 3 vs CHC 4. Jason Kendall, OAK 4-for-10 (60.0%) 2 @ BAL, 2 vs SEA, 3 vs TB 5. Paul Lo Duca, NYM 3-for-6 (50.0%) 3 vs COL, 3 @ WAS Facing these elite catchers is bad news for the following players in the stolen base category: Chris Duffy (2-for-2 SB), David Eckstein (2-for-2 SB), Juan Pierre (7-for-10 SB), Eric Byrnes (5-for-6 SB), Rafael Furcal (2-for-2 SB), Adam Dunn (4-for-4 SB), Ryan Freel (4-for-6 SB), Rocco Baldelli (2-for-3 SB) Easiest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%) 1. Johnny Estrada, MIL 5-for-5 (0%) 3 @ CHC, 3 @ HOU 2. Brian Schneider, WAS 11-for-12 (8.3%) 3 @ PHI, 3 vs NYM 3. Ivan Rodriguez, DET 6-for-7 (14.3%) 2 @ LAA, 2 @ CHW, 3 vs MIN 4. Gregg Zaun, TOR 9-for-11 (18.2%) 2 @ BOS, 2 @NYY, 3 vs TEX 5T. Carlos Ruiz, PHI 11-for-14 (21.4%) 1 vs HOU, 3 vs WAS, 3 vs FLA 5T. Dioner Navaro, TB 11-for-14 (21.4%) 2 vs NYY, 2 @ LAA, 3 @ OAK 5T. Jorge Posada, NYY 11-for-14 (21.4%) 2 @ TB, 2 vs TOR, 3 vs BOS Facing these catchers is good news for Chris Burke (5-for-5 SB), Jose Reyes (9-for-11 SB), Carlos Beltran (3-for-4 SB), David Wright (3-for-3 SB), Shane Victorino (4-for-6 SB), Darin Erstad (4-for-5 SB), Joe Mauer (3-for-3 SB), Luis Castillo (2-for-2 SB), Torii Hunter (4-for-4 SB), Kenny Lofton (4-for-5 SB), Hanley Ramirez (5-for-6 SB), Jason Kendall (3-for-3 SB), Julio Lugo (3-for-3 SB) American League: Baltimore: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Boston: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Chicago White Sox: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Cleveland: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Detroit: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Kansas City: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Los Angeles Angels: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Minnesota: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) New York Yankees: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Oakland: (3 vs. Right-handers, 4 vs. Left-handers) Seattle: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Tampa Bay: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Texas: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Toronto: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Notes: The Twins and Athletics play against three-plus southpaws this week, while Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto face six righties. That's good news for Joe Mauer (.360 vs LHPs), Travis Buck (.800 vs LHPs), Kevin Millar (.333 vs RHPs), Nick Markakis (.333 vs RHPs), B.J. Upton (.370 vs RHPs), Delmon Young (.333 vs RHPs), Royce Clayton (.391 vs RHPs), Aaron Hill (.342 vs RHPs), Adam Lind (.353 vs RHPs) And bad news for Jason Bartlett (.167 vs LHPs), Luis Castillo (.200 vs LHPs), Michael Cuddyer (.185 vs LHPs), Jason Kendall (.056 vs LHPs), Eric Chavez (.227 vs LHPs), Jay Gibbons (.171 vs RHPs), Aubrey Huff (.205 vs RHPs), Brian Roberts (.227 vs RHPs), Carlos Pena (.211 vs RHPs), Ben Zobrist (.222 vs RHPs), Elijah Dukes (.154 vs RHPs), Frank Thomas (.136 vs RHPs), Lyle Overbay (.182 vs RHPs) National League: Arizona: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Atlanta: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Chicago Cubs: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers) Cincinnati: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Colorado: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Florida: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Houston: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Los Angeles Dodgers: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Milwaukee: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) New York Mets: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Philadelphia: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Pittsburgh: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) San Diego: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) San Francisco: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) St. Louis: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers) Washington: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) The Braves, Reds, Astros, Giants and Nationals play three lefties. That's good news for Chris Woodward (.417 vs LHPs), Chris Burke (.438 vs LHPs), Morgan Ensberg (.412 vs LHPs), Barry Bonds (.462 vs LHPs), Pedro Feliz (.417 vs LHPs), Felipe Lopez (.400 vs LHPs), Dmitri Young (.368 vs LHPs), Ryan Zimmerman (.333 vs LHPs) That's bad news for Craig Wilson (.238 vs LHPs), Ryan Freel (.148 vs LHPs), David Ross (.063 vs LHPs), Adam Dunn (.217 vs LHPs), Jason Lane (.214 vs LHPs), Carlos Lee (.167 vs LHPs), Omar Vizquel (.176 vs LHPs), Bengie Molina (.154 vs LHPs), Chris Snelling (0-for-10 vs LHPs), Brian Schneider (.059 vs LHPs), Austin Kearns (.176 vs LHPs), Ryan Church (.167 vs LHPs) Some scheduled two-start pitchers in week 5: Curt Schilling, Daniel Cabrera, Chad Durbin, John Danks, Odalis Perez, Sidney Ponson, Miguel Batista, Joe Blanton, Edwin Jackson, Joe Saunders, Brandon McCarthy, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Tim Hudson, Scott Olsen, Bronson Arroyo, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Albers, Zach Duke, Ben Sheets, Ted Lilly, Jake Peavy, Livan Hernandez, Noah Lowry, Mark Hendrickson, John Patterson, Jon Lieber Latest on the injury front: Outfielders: Jeff DaVanon (shoulder) return late April Juan Encarnacion (wrist) return early May Chone Figgins (finger) return early May Lew Ford (knee) return late April Jeremy Hermida (knee) return early May Reed Johnson (back) return July Matt Kemp (shoulder) return late April Mark Kotsay (back) return June/July Nook Logan (foot) return late April Hideki Matsui (hamstring) return April 23 Laynce Nix (ribs) return late April Scott Podsednik (groin) return mid-May Jason Repko (groin) might be out for the season Juan Rivera (leg) return July/August Rondell White (calf) return late April Infielders Troy Glaus (heel) return early May Cristian Guzman (hamstring) return late April Dan Johnson (hip) return mid-season Nick Johnson (leg) return mid-season Howie Kendrick (hand) return mid-May Corey Koskie (concussion) out indefinitely Kaz Matsui (back) return early May Dallas McPherson (back) return August/September Catchers: Toby Hall (shoulder) might be out for the season Ramon Hernandez (ribs) return late April Vance Wilson (ankle) return late April Designated Hitters: Jeff Cirillo (knee) return mid-May Greg Norton (knee) return May Starting Pitchers: Brandon Backe (elbow) return August/September Chris Carpenter (elbow) return early May Matt Clement (shoulder) return July/August Lance Cormier (shoulder) return early May Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) return April 24 vs TB Mike Hampton (ribs) out for the season Rich Harden (shoulder) return April 24 Felix Hernandez (elbow) return early May Luke Hudson (shoulder) return late April Jason Jennings (elbow) return early May Josh Johnson (elbow) return mid-season Randy Johnson (back) return April 24 vs. San Diego Cliff Lee (abdomen) return late April Jon Lester (cancer) return early May Francisco Liriano (elbow) out for the season Esteban Loaiza (shoulder) return May Rodrigo Lopez (elbow) return early May Pedro Martinez (shoulder) return July/August Sergio Mitre (finger) return early May Mark Mulder (shoulder) return July Mike Mussina (hamstring) return early May Micah Owings (hamstring) return early May Carl Pavano (elbow) return early may Kenny Rogers (arm) return July Jason Schmidt (shoulder) return early May Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) might return April 24 @ TB Jaret Wright (shoulder) return April 29 vs CLE Important Relievers: Kris Benson (shoulder) likely out for the season Yhency Brazoban (elbow) return mid-season Octavio Dotel (ribs) return late April John Grabow (elbow) return late April Eddie Guardado (elbow) return mid-season Jorge Julio (calf) return early May Jose Mesa (groin) return early May Matt Miller (elbow) return early May Ricky Nolasco (elbow) return early May Arthur Rhodes (elbow) return late April B.J. Ryan (elbow) return late May Duaner Sanchez (shoulder) return July/August Kerry Wood (triceps) return May |
| | |
| | #100 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| NL Future Callups Instead of the traditional news and notes, the focus this week is on minor leaguers with the potential to help in fantasy leagues before the end of the year. I do have some notes on a few of the major stories of the past week at the end of the column. Up next week are the May player rankings. National League Minor Leaguers Arizona - The Diamondbacks kept Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings as their last two starters to begin the year, but they just as easily could have picked Dustin Nippert, Dana Eveland, Yusmeiro Petit or Enrique Gonzalez. Eveland, a product of the Doug Davis-Johnny Estrada trade with Milwaukee, has the best chance of making a modest contribution in NL-only leagues this season. He has a very good strikeout rate for a lefty and could settle in as a solid No. 3 or No. 4 if he's willing to dedicate himself to a conditioning program. Left-handed hitter Chris Carter is batting .444 in 63 at-bats for Triple-A Tucson. He doesn't have a future in Arizona, but he could help another team as a first baseman or a DH against right-handers. He'll be trade bait this summer. Jamie D'Antona is off to an even better start at Tucson, hitting .500 with nine doubles and 10 walks in 54 at-bats. Once viewed as a quality third-base prospect, he's now a part-time catcher and corner infielder. He'd have to improve defensively in order to have a career as a bench player. Waiver claim Jeff Salazar is batting .311/.364/.574. He could help as a reserve outfielder if the Diamondbacks don't get Jeff DaVanon back. Atlanta - Matt Harrison impressed the Braves enough this spring to turn himself into a candidate for a rotation spot later this season. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA in Double-A. With three major league pitches and above average command, he projects as a long-term No. 3. He'd be worthy of an immediate pickup in NL-only leagues if called upon. In Yunel Escobar and Martin Prado, the club has a couple of middle infielders it really likes in Triple-A. Escobar is the better bet to help, as he could take over at third base in the event of an injury to Chipper Jones. Prado is pretty much limited to second base, and it doesn't look like Kelly Johnson will be going anywhere. Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn't looking at more than a September callup for the Braves, but if he's traded at the deadline, he might be another team's starting catcher in the final two months. At .375/.474/.646 currently in Double-A, he's on his way to a big bounce-back season after a down 2006. Reliever Joey Devine has a 3.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts in Double-A. His next opportunity to establish himself in the Atlanta bullpen should come this summer. Chicago - The Cubs called up Felix Pie to replace an injured Alfonso Soriano and have given some indication they plan on sticking with him in center following Soriano's return Monday, though that would leave them with a huge crowd in right. Odds are that Pie is going to end up back in Triple-A unless he gets hot in a hurry. He has a better chance of making an impact come June or July, and because of his speed, he could be worth using in mixed leagues over the final two or three months. With Ryan Theriot further establishing himself as a fan favorite, second baseman Eric Patterson might not get a chance this year even if Mark DeRosa fails to cut it as a regular. Angel Guzman, who opened the year in the Cubs bullpen before being sent down, and Carlos Marmol are the top candidates to join the rotation should be an opening arise. Both are quality sleepers. Guzman is the better bet based on his performance this spring and in relief, but if Marmol's improved command holds up he has a 24/4 K/BB ratio in 16 1/3 innings in Triple-A he could be terrific. Just remember that he walked 59 in 77 innings in the majors last year. Cincinnati - In Homer Bailey and Joey Votto, Cincinnati possesses two of the NL's top potential callups. Bailey won't necessarily be the first Reds starter called on lefties Bobby Livingston and Phil Dumatrait might be tried if the club needs someone within the next month or so but he's the only one that's particularly interesting for fantasy purposes. He just needs to do a little better job of throwing strikes with his mid-90s fastball. Possessing a curveball capable of racking up strikeouts, he'll be an asset in mixed leagues once he cuts down on the walks. Votto isn't as spectacular of a prospect as Bailey, but he should be a fair regular at first base, and with only Scott Hatteberg and Jeff Conine ahead of him, a starting job could be his for the taking by July. If he gets called up early enough, he'll be good for 10-12 homers. Mark Bellhorn is trying to prove he still has something to offer a major league team. He's batting .295/.436/.500 in 44 at-bats in Triple-A. Brad Salmon is unlikely to turn into a closer, but there's still enough uncertainty in the Cincinnati pen to make him a bit of a sleeper. He's allowed two runs and struck out seven in six innings as Louisville's closer. Colorado - The Rockies have one of the game's best farm systems, but most of their youngsters are either in the majors or at least a year away. Ian Stewart, who is still playing third base despite Garrett Atkins' presence ahead of him, isn't yet showing major league power. First baseman Joe Koshansky could help if Todd Helton is injured or traded, but the Rockies might go to Jeff Baker first. An in-season trade for Helton is pretty unlikely anyway. Ubaldo Jimenez, easily the top pitching prospect in the Triple-A rotation, has a 15.09 ERA after three starts. There just aren't any prospects on the Sky Sox roster likely to be much of a factor in 2007. In Cory Sullivan, Ryan Spilborghs and Alexis Gomez, the Rockies do have three veteran outfielders in Triple-A capable of helping out. Sullivan should get another chance if Steve Finley's slump carries on into May. Spilborghs is too similar to Baker to be of much use to the Rockies, but he'd help a lot of teams as a fourth outfielder. Alvin Colina would be called up if it's decided Chris Iannetta would benefit from more Triple-A time. However, he'd likely play behind Yorvit Torrealba and possess little value. Juan Morillo, now a full-time reliever, is the best bet to be Colorado's closer in 2009. It's doubtful that he'll be of much use this year, but he does need to be watched. Florida - The Marlins are in between waves of prospects, leaving them with little immediate help in Triple-A. What they do possess are veterans capable of serving as bench players in Chad Hermansen, John Gall, Val Pascucci and Scott Seabol. Also, Nate Field would likely be of help in middle relief or in a setup role. Beyond the veterans, the Marlins still have Reggie Abercrombie as a possibility in center field. Unfortunately, he's hitting .204 with an 18/0 K/BB ratio in 49 at-bats in the minors. Eric Reed, who is currently in the majors with Alejandro De Aza hurting, has a better chance of being of use as a reserve. Gaby Hernandez, arguably the club's top pitching prospect, has a 3.31 ERA and a 16/4 K/BB ratio in 16 1/3 innings in Double-A. It'd be for the best if he's not needed this year, but he could prove more capable than Rick Vanden Hurk of providing the team with some decent starts. 2005 first-round pick Chris Volstad is in A ball at the moment, but it's possible he'll debut during the second half. Like Hernandez, he'd be a poor bet to amass fantasy value early on. Houston - Hunter Pence didn't win a job by hitting .571/.647/1.071 this spring, but he could be the Astros' center fielder by June 1 if Chris Burke fails to step up. He's currently hitting .328/.394/.547 for Triple-A Round Rock. If he gets 300 at-bats this year, expect him to hit .260-.270 with a dozen homers and a handful of steals. The Astros hope they won't need any other offensive help this year, but they do have a couple of useful utilitymen in the minors in Eric Bruntlett and Brooks Conrad. Bruntlett, who spent much of the previous three years on the roster, will be the first callup, though it's unlikely he'll get much playing time. Conrad, more of an offensive-minded reserve, needs a trade. Fernando Nieve was bypassed in favor of Matt Albers when the Astros required a starter last week, but he remains a good bet to have some value in NL-only leagues this year. His chance should come next month. Top prospect Troy Patton is less likely to get a shot, but he might be an option by July or August. He's well worth keeping an eye on. .. Paul Estrada could be a big factor in the bullpen later this year. He projects as a quality setup man for the club. Los Angeles - Andy LaRoche didn't hit this spring and as atrocious defensively, but with Wilson Betemit continuing to struggle, the opportunity is still there for Adam's younger brother. LaRoche has more offensive upside than Betemit, and he has the range to be a fine third baseman. An opportunity could come if he can get hot for a few weeks. Like LaRoche, Loney has gotten off to a disappointing start, hitting .266/.319/.375 at Las Vegas while seeing time both at first base and in right field. Still, he's capable of helping the Dodgers now and he could receive regular playing time if Nomar Garciaparra gets hurt. He can't be left unowned in NL-only leagues. Tony Abreu was a great surprise this spring and has kept it going with a 1045 OPS in Triple-A. He'll be up if Jeff Kent goes on the DL. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the power or speed to be a major asset. Scott Elbert, one of the top lefties in the minors, has struck out 24 and walked 10 in 14 innings in Double-A. Command will be the key if he's going to make an impact in the second half. Right now, the Dodgers would go to Eric Stults or D.J. Houlton first if they required a starter. Jonathan Meloan is the club's new big-time relief prospect. He could end the year in a setup role. Milwaukee - Ryan Braun's glove is the only thing keeping him in the minors. He's followed up a great spring by hitting .293/.379/.672 with five homers in 58 at-bats for Triple-A Nashville. With still no indication that Corey Koskie is coming back, Braun will have to get a look by June or July. Since he even likes to steal bases, he could have some value in shallow mixed leagues. Yovani Gallardo is the NL's No. 2 pitching prospect behind Bailey, and with Carlos Villanueva not off to a very good start in middle relief, he could be the first pitcher called on should the Brewers need a starter. Because of his command, he might have an even better chance than Bailey of excelling right away. He's allowed 13 hits, walked four and struck out 26 in 17 innings in Triple-A. No one has met the Milwaukee's asking price for Jose Capellan. He could have been a saves candidate in the right situation. That won't happen if the Brewers keep him and put him back in their pen next month. New York - Lastings Milledge is still very much a top prospect and might yet prove to be the Mets' best option in right field, though Shawn Green's hot start has eliminated what chance there was of him getting an opportunity anytime soon. It might take a trade to make Milledge a regular for the final two months of the season. He could be good for 8-10 homers and steals if given 250-300 at-bats. With Jorge Sosa and Jason Vargas both off to very good starts for Triple-A New Orleans, it doesn't look like Philip Humber will be needed anytime soon. He's a better bet for 2008 anyway. Sosa and Vargas both have some upside, in no small part because they'd be in a great situation for wins if added to the rotation. Anyone starting games for the Mets has to be owned in NL-only leagues. Ben Johnson wasn't kept as a reserve outfielder after being acquired from the Padres and is now on the minor league DL, but he can't be completely forgotten about. He could flash 20-homer power if he lands with another team. Philadelphia - With Michael Bourn wasting away on the team's bench, catcher Jason Jaramillo is the only offensive prospect the Phillies have in Triple-A. He probably wouldn't be much of a downgrade from Carlos Ruiz or Rod Barajas in the short-term, but he's not someone the Phillies want to have to turn to this year. Bourn figures to go down eventually, as he needs some at-bats if he's going to have a chance of helping out later on. The speedster would likely be a solid NL-only leagues outfielder if pressed into regular duty. However, the Phillies might go with Jayson Werth over him if Aaron Rowand or Shane Victorino gets hurt. Zach Segovia got to fill in for Freddy Garcia earlier this month, but left-hander J.A. Happ would be the superior option if another starter is needed. Unfortunately, his flyball tendencies wouldn't play well in Citizens Bank Park, leaving him with little fantasy upside. Reliever Joe Bisenius could be the Phillies' long-term closer. Expect him to be up for good within a couple of months. He should take over a setup role by August or September. Pittsburgh - The Pirates have bench help in Triple-A in the form of Ryan Doumit, Luis Matos and Jose Hernandez. Doumit has been on a tear since getting sent down, batting .465/.556/.767. He should be in the majors over Brad Eldred and getting the occasional start behind the plate. Count on it happening if Ronny Paulino's slump lingers through the end of the month. Matos is an option as a fifth outfielder, but the Pirates have Nate McLouth to turn to if any starters go down. Hernandez can contribute more on offense than Don Kelly if the Pirates want to go back to him. The Pirates are rich in potential starters in Sean Burnett, Bryan Bullington, Shane Youman, Yoslan Herrera and Alay Soler. Still, none is a strong fantasy sleeper. Herrera, a Cuban defector, could be interesting if he shakes the rust after a long layoff. I like what I saw from Bullington this spring, but he might fit best in the bullpen. Josh Sharpless is better than a couple of the relievers the Pirates are currently employing. He could be the team's seventh-inning guy by the All-Star break. 2005 first-round pick Andrew McCutchen has to be mentioned here. He shouldn't be up until September, but maybe if Chris Duffy struggles, he'll make it to Pittsburgh a little earlier. The 20-year-old is one of the league's top fantasy prospects. St. Louis - The rumor was that Blake Hawksworth would get the call when Chris Carpenter went down. Randy Keisler was chosen instead, but the Cardinals would like to get a look at Hawksworth later. The 24-year-old has overcome years of shoulder troubles to reemerge as one of the club's best prospects. He probably doesn't have more than No. 4-starter upside now, but he could possess a little value in NL-only leagues later on. Jaime Garcia is a level behind Hawksworth in Double-A, but he gets a lot of grounders and strikeouts, giving him a high ceiling. He's more of a prospect for 2008, but we may see him in the majors by July or August. Except for veteran John Rodriguez, the Cardinals don't have much in the way of offensive options in the minors. Rick Ankiel has five early homers, but he also has a .254 OBP in Triple-A. If the Cardinals need power, Ryan Ludwick would probably be a better choice. Either he or Rodriguez could serve as a reserve outfielder if the club gives up on Preston Wilson or So Taguchi. San Diego - With Royce Ring, Scott Strickland, Andrew Brown, Leo Rosales and Justin Germano at Triple-A Portland, the Padres have a ton of bullpen depth. What they lack is potential rotation options and backup infielders. 2005 first-round pick Cesar Carrillo is back after missing the second half of last season with elbow troubles, but he has a 9.00 ERA in three starts for Portland. Tim Stauffer is currently struggling in middle relief. If the Padres need a starter, they'd probably go right back to Mike Thompson. He did OK last year, but he'd be a weak option in NL-only leagues even while being aided by Petco Park. Jack Cust is on the Padres' 40-man roster and is again pummeling PCL pitching to the tune of an 1140 OPS. However, he'd be scary bad in Petco's huge outfield and the team probably won't want to use him as more than a pinch-hitter. The Padres would have to turn to Craig Stansberry or Oscar Robles if they lose Khalil Greene or Marcus Giles to injury. Robles, an ex-Dodger, has little offensive upside, but would be a better solution at shortstop than Geoff Blum. Stansberry is hitting .375/.432/.547 in 64 at-bats for Portland. It's probably a fluke, but if he keeps it up, maybe he'd get a chance to start over Blum if Giles goes down. San Francisco - Tim Lincecum only ranks behind Bailey and Gallardo as prospects because of the injury possibility. He's a better bet than either for this year, and he should be picked up immediately in mixed leagues when the Giants call him up. The 2006 first-rounder has allowed nine hits, walked five and struck out 28 in 18 2/3 scoreless innings for Triple-A Fresno. He's the best bet to make a big impact this year of anyone currently in the minors. Kevin Frandsen is back in Triple-A because the Giants couldn't find any at-bats for him. That will change if Ray Durham or Omar Vizquel gets hurt. He could have a little value this season. The Giants wanted Brian Wilson to close if they traded Armando Benitez, but his lack of command got him sent back to Fresno, where he has an 11/8 K/BB ratio in 7 1/3 innings so far. He'll be back once he stops walking batters, and he'll be a candidate for saves when Benitez lands on the DL. Billy Sadler, who has fanned 13 and walked six in nine innings for Fresno, is a deep sleeper for saves. He projects as more of a seventh-inning guy. Fred Lewis would be the likely replacement if any outfielder lands on the DL. He might be good for a few steals while serving as a fourth outfielder. Washington - The Nationals will go through a ton of players this year, but figuring out which ones will have fantasy value qualifies as a difficult assignment. Outfielder Kory Casto, who opened the season in the majors because of Nook Logan's injury, is probably the best bet. He's not ready to hit better than .250 in the majors, but he can post a respectable OBP anyway and he has 15-homer power. On the pitching side, Emiliano Fruto offers the best combination of upside and performance. He's walked 11 in 16 innings for Columbus, but he's given up just five hits in the process. It would be interesting to see what he could do as a starter after the Mariners were too quick to shift him to the bullpen. The Nationals also have Joel Hanrahan, Billy Traber, Tim Redding, Frank Diaz and Mike Bacsik in Triple-A. Hanrahan may get the first chance to fill a rotation spot. Behind them is Collin Balester in Double-A. The Nationals see him as their best pitching prospect and could give him a look in the second half. However, he's unlikely to be an asset before 2008 and maybe not then. Tony Batista, Alex Gonzalez, Darnell McDonald and George Lombard are among the veteran hitters the Nationals have stashed away in Triple-A. Batista is hitting .340, so he may get another chance. However, it shouldn't happen in Washington. The Nats would happily part with him for a decent A-ball arm. News of the Week - Alfonso Soriano is expected back from a hamstring injury on Monday, but he'll be playing left field rather than center. The Cubs have been giving mixed signals on whether Pie will stay with the team to man center. He's not going to be a part-timer, so he'll either start regularly for the Cubs or head back to Triple-A. The latter seems preferable, at least unless the Cubs can get some good value back in return for Jacque Jones or Matt Murton. Having those two share time with Cliff Floyd in right field isn't going to work. My guess is that Pie will return to Iowa before the end of the week. Since it may not happen right away, Murton and Floyd look like fairly weak plays in NL-only leagues. - Despite repeatedly saying he wasn't hurt, Jason Schmidt went on the DL last week with shoulder inflammation. Nobody is mentioning surgery, so it looks like he will be back in a couple of weeks to resume pitching with a damaged shoulder, just like he's done for years now. The Dodgers will hope the time off gives him some added velocity. Schmidt likely could succeed while working in the high-80s, but he's a fourth or fifth starter if he's averaging 85 mph with his fastball. Best-case scenario, he's back in the low-90s by June after rebuilding his arm strength. - I've already written my Brett Myers rant, so I won't go there again. It seems highly unlikely that Myers will spend the rest of the year in a setup role. Either he'll move back into the rotation after Charlie Manuel is fired it could happen any week now or he'll eventually replace Tom Gordon as the Phillies' closer, perhaps after Gordon next tweaks his shoulder. There's no way he can be left unowned in mixed leagues, and I recommend trying to buy low on him. Jon Lieber has some value in NL-only leagues while serving as the fifth starter. The Phillies would likely still be open to trading him if it'd bring in a real setup man. - The Marlins got Jorge Julio off the roster with the most conveniently timed calf strain in baseball history. Henry Owens hasn't had a save chance since Julio went on the DL, but manager Fredi Gonzalez named him the closer and figures to stick with him as long as he remains effective. Taylor Tankersley is also worth owning in most formats. |
| | |
| | #101 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Harden Suffers Setback In news that should surprise absolutely no one, Rich Harden has been scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday. Harden played catch Friday and threw a bullpen session Sunday, both without experiencing a clear setback, but Dallas Braden will make his major-league debut in his place against the Orioles anyway. Manager Bob Geren said that he thinks Harden will "be ready sooner rather than later" and added that the A's are "not going to put him on the disabled list." Of course, the "sooner rather than later" coachspeak rings even more hollow than usual given Harden's track record with recovery timetables and the A's tend to initially avoid the DL at all costs in most cases. Meanwhile, Brad Halsey publicly criticized the team after learning that he was being passed over for the start in favor of Braden, saying that the A's avoided bringing him up because of arm soreness that dates back to spring training. Halsey called the A's a "mom-and-pop organization" (among other things, some of them with words I can't print here) because he believes that the team is worried about potentially having to pay him big-league money if a disabled-list stint becomes necessary. General manager Billy Beane quickly denied Halsey's claimssaying, "We're sorry Brad's disappointed, but we're more worried about getting Bob Geren 25 healthy bodies"but choosing to go with Braden over Halsey is certainly unexpected. While A's fans and Harden's fantasy owners go from drooling over his strong start to wondering if he's becoming the AL's version of Mark Prior, here are some other notes from around baseball * Alfonso Soriano's injured hamstring was healed enough for him to return Sunday, as he doubled down the left-field line as a pinch-hitter before leaving for a pinch-runner. He's expected to start Monday, but as manager Lou Piniella announced over the weekend, Soriano will be playing left field rather than center field. However, despite the quick hook on the plan to make Soriano a center fielder, Piniella seemed unsure when asked if Felix Pie would be staying in the majors. Piniella did make it clear that if Pie does stay with the Cubs, he'll be doing so in a starting capacity. The other option is to send Pie back to Triple-A, where he can continue to play every day while the Cubs sort out their outfield. Under that scenario, Jacque Jones would take over in center field, at least against right-handed pitchers, with Matt Murton potentially getting some at-bats there against left-handers. Jones has been primarily a corner outfielder since 2001, but does have plenty of past experience in center field and has enough range to hold his own out there. A Soriano-Jones-Cliff Floyd outfield alignment might hurt the Cubs a bit defensively, but by keeping Pie around they'd have to essentially find a way to work Jones, Murton, and Floyd into one spot in the lineup, which is a recipe for either a trade or a problem. * Making his way back from two broken fingers, Chone Figgins is reportedly close to beginning a minor-league rehab assignment, perhaps as soon as Wednesday. Figgins said Sunday that he has concerns about how well he's able to throw after struggling some during workouts, which could mean a more lengthy rehab assignment than initially expected. However, the Angels are clearly planning to have him back soon. Manager Mike Scioscia laid out his plan Sunday, saying that Figgins will step into the lineup at third base when healthy, with Maicer Izturis sliding over from third base to second base while Howie Kendrick is sidelined. Figgins will likely play nearly every day once he returns and Izturis has a clear leg up on regular at-bats over Erick Aybar and Robb Quinlan. If any player can maintain solid fantasy value while coming back from broken fingers, it's Legs Figgins. * After three scoreless appearances to begin his comeback, Eric Gagne left Sunday's game one out into the ninth inning with what's being called either a strained "hip" or "gluteus maximus" depending on the source. Either way, given his other maladies and the Rangers' likely cautious approach with him in general, it wouldn't be surprising to see him land on the disabled list. Akinori Otsuka relieved Gagne Sunday and could step right back into the closer role if needed. AL Quick Hits: Milton Bradley left Sunday's game after aggravating his hamstring injury and could be headed to the disabled list If his minor-league rehab start goes well Thursday, Cliff Lee (abdomen) could come off the DL as soon as Sunday With David DeJesus (ankle) getting the day off, Mark Teahen made his first career start in center field Sunday Coco Crisp (oblique) was scratched from Sunday's lineup, but entered the game as an eighth-inning defensive replacement Jeff Weaver gave up three runs on seven hits in three innings Sunday, yet managed to lower his ERA from 15.75 to 13.91 After hitting just .117 through the first 17 games, Gary Sheffield was given Sunday off and said his problem is "between my ears" Brian Roberts expects to play Monday after sitting out two games with flu-like symptoms With Jorge Posada (thumb) hurting, Josh Phelps made his first appearance at catcher since 2001 and picked up added fantasy value in some leagues With Andy Marte (hamstring) day-to-day, Casey Blake will take over at third base and Ryan Garko should pick up at-bats. NL Quick Hits: After sitting out three games, Ryan Howard (knee) returned to the lineup Sunday with a two-run homer Miguel Cabrera (oblique) was also back in the lineup Sunday after missing two games Manager Manny Acta yanked Ryan Church from Sunday's game for "not running hard" on a ground out After getting knocked around for seven runs in 4.1 innings Sunday, Wade Miller may not be long for the Cubs' rotation Juan Encarnacion (wrist) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment this week With a visit to Dr. James Andres scheduled for later this week, Mark Prior (shoulder) could be on the verge of surgery He has just one win to show for it, but Matt Cain has allowed opponents to bat .120 against him while posting a 1.55 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in four starts Once thought to be near completion, Carlos Zambrano's contract talks with the Cubs are now rumored to be on their last legs Ricky Nolasco (elbow) is hoping for a May 1 return following two upcoming minor-league rehab starts. |
| | |
| | #102 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Countdown to Hughes With their starting rotation in shambles and a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox fresh in the rearview mirror, the Yankees have decided that it's time for The Philip Hughes Era to begin. The consensus top pitching prospect in all of baseball, the 20-year-old right-hander is expected to come up from Triple-A to make his major-league debut Thursday against the Blue Jays. He's 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 17-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three starts at Scranton. General manager Brian Cashman made it clear that calling Hughes up this soon is a change of plans for the Yankees and there's been some speculation that owner George Steinbrenner is behind the decision. As Cashman said Monday, "My exact goal was that hopefully we'd be able to keep him down all year, but reality kicks in when you play a season. We have a team need and we need a starter." Cashman indicated that Hughes is being brought up to make just one start, but given the numerous health-related question marks throughout the rotation it's not difficult to imagine him staying for good with a strong first outing. With his unique combination of overpowering raw stuff and an amazing performance track record at such a young age, there's little doubt that Hughes is an elite prospect with tremendous long-term potential. The question is whether he's ready to dominate big-league hitters immediately. My guess is that Hughes is capable of showing flashing of brilliance right now, but lacks the consistency to be a top-notch fantasy starter if he remains in the rotation. Toss in the possibility that he'll be headed back to Triple-A next week and he's not a strong mixed-league option. However, he's absolutely worth stashing away on the bench in mixed leagues and is a must-play in AL-only leagues. While Yankees fans anxiously await their 20-year-old savior and say goodbye (for now at least) to Chase "back-to-back-to-back-to-back" Wright, here are some other notes from around baseball * Yesterday in this space I suggested that Mark Prior appeared headed for shoulder surgery and both Rich Harden and Eric Gagne appeared headed for the disabled list. All three of those statements led to my e-mailbox being filled with some strongly worded notes from readers who rightly questioned my (non-existent) medical expertise, but 24 hours later all three statements have already come true. After visiting with Dr. James Andrews, Prior will undergo what's being called "exploratory surgery" on his right shoulder, which could knock him out for the entire season. That news, combined with the Cubs also placing Wade Miller on the DL Monday, means that Angel Guzman has a legitimate chance to grab hold of a permanent spot in the rotation. For Prior, finally finding out what's truly wrong with him is likely for the best, even if it means going under the knife. Interestingly, Harden was placed on the DL mere hours after manager Bob Geren told reporters "we're not going to put him on the disabled list," although that's sort of par for the course with the A's and injuries. The hope is that Harden can return next week, but his timetable has already been pushed back twice and his history with such things suggests that it's usually later rather than sooner. Dallas Braden will start in his place Tuesday and might have a little AL-only value. Gagne's trip to the DL seems to be more about caution than legitimate worry, which is probably smart anyway given his own injury history. The Rangers will slide Akinori Otsuka back into the closer role that he filled well last season, calling up Frank Francisco to fill Gagne's spot in the bullpen. As was the case coming into the season, Otsuka is perhaps the most valuable setup man in the league thanks to his stellar track record and Gagne's health problems. * With his trip to the disabled list backdated to April 19, Felix Hernandez is on track to return with a start against the Yankees on May 4. Hernandez began his comeback from a strained elbow by playing catch from 75 feet Monday and is expected take part in a series of bullpen sessions over the next week or so. Asked about the decision to place King Felix on the DL, general manager Bill Bavasi said that it "hopefully removes any pressure he may feel to try and rush back." Called up from Triple-A, Cha Seung Baek stepped into the rotation for Hernandez Monday and got knocked around by the Rangers. However, after Baek gave up four runs in 4.1 innings, rookie Brandon Morrow picked up his first career win with 3.1 scoreless innings of relief. The Mariners don't seem quite sure what they want to do with Morrow and he could eventually be put into the rotation this season, but for now Baek figures to continue subbing for Hernandez. AL Quick Hits: Transferred to the 60-day disabled list Monday, B.J. Ryan (elbow) is now out until at least mid-June Chone Figgins (fingers) is scheduled to begin a brief minor-league rehab assignment Wednesday and could return as soon as Monday if things go smoothly ... Hideki Matsui (hamstring) came off the DL Monday, starting in left field and batting sixth Bartolo Colon (ankle) may have his scheduled start Thursday pushed back, with Dustin Moseley likely taking his place Mark Buehrle followed up his no-hitter last week by tossing seven innings of three-run ball Monday to pick up a win against the Royals It took three weeks and four outs, but J.J. Putz notched his first save Monday Ramon Hernandez (oblique) is set to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday and could come off the DL as soon as Thursday Coincidence? On the same day that he called into Bubba the Love Sponge's radio show to wish him a happy birthday, Aubrey Huff broke out of a season-long slump with a three-run homer. NL Quick Hits: Tom Gordon remains the Phillies' closer, but manager Charlie Manuel indicated Monday that Brett Myers will be given save chances at some point The Cubs went with an Alfonso Soriano-Jacque Jones-Cliff Floyd outfield alignment against a right-handed pitcher Monday, but Felix Pie went 2-for-3 after coming in as a pinch-hitter With Francisco Cordero having worked four of the past five days, Derrick Turnbow picked up his first save Monday Mike Gonzalez (elbow) pitched Monday for the first time in a week Johnny Estrada (knee) is day-to-day after leaving Monday's game following a collision with teammate Prince Fielder After giving up three extra-base hits, Henry Owens was yanked from a save chance with one out remaining Monday Brian McCann (finger) appeared as a pinch-hitter Monday and could be back in the lineup Tuesday Daily Dose favorite Chris Sampson came into Monday's game with a sub-2.00 career ERA, but was knocked around for seven runs on 14 hits. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws Note: If you enjoy reading the Daily Dose and would like it delivered directly to your e-mailbox each afternoon, you can sign up for delivery by filling out the short form that's located on the right-hand sidebar of this page. |
| | |
| | #103 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Prospects: Hochevar and Salty As they almost always do, the Yankees and Red Sox took center stage in the baseball world over the weekend when they matched up for the first time this season. After the Red Sox swept the series and dropped the Yankees to a disappointing 8-9 start, New York reacted Monday by announcing that they would call up baseball's best pitching prospect, Phil Hughes, later in the week. The decision to promote Hughes is evaluated further below, but the short analysis is that it's a move the club would have liked not to make just yet. However, after Chase Wright looked like he still belonged in the minors, it was a move the club felt it had to make. Even though he was off to a fine start in Triple-A, the Yankees would have preferred letting Hughes gain a little more experience and further distance himself from the control problems that dogged him this spring. Instead, he's up in the most intense market in the country and will be expected to act as the savior for a hurting pitching staff. There's nothing in his past that would indicate Hughes is in any danger while pitching in a pressure-packed environment, but it's still a lot to put on a 20-year-old. If he does struggle, you can bet the media will attribute the poor performance to the intense pressure. It's not something that should affect his long-term fantasy value either way, so a poor first trip around the league might help those in keeper leagues acquire him at a discount. Callups Matt Albers RHP Astros A 23rd round draft-and-follow out of a Texas high school in 2001, Albers looked like a worthy investment after an impressive 2003 campaign at Tri City of the New York-Penn League. Albers was a 20-year-old at the time, but little was expected and he came through with an ERA under 3.00 to go with strong ratios. A move up to Low Single-A Lexington the following year provided mixed results, as Albers struck out an incredible 11.3 batters per nine innings. However, the right-hander was still in Low Single-A at a more advanced age, and his walk rake also spiked to 57 free passes in just 111 1/3 innings. Promoted to High-A Salem to begin the 2005 campaign, Albers all but fell apart. His strikeout rate dropped below one per inning, his walk rate remained too high, and he suddenly gave up 15 homers in 148 2/3 innings. Throw in some rumors regarding his drive and desire to succeed, and Albers ended up with a 4.66 ERA. Last season was an improvement for the right-hander, as he yielded just seven homers and induced a fair amount of ground balls. However, his 132/64 K/BB ratio in 156 innings between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors was hardly encouraging and he did most of his work in pitcher-friendly parks. Thanks to a moving, low-90s fastball and improved curveball, Albers still has a good deal of potential. If he can get the walks under control, his strikeout rate is strong enough to go with his groundball tendencies and ability to keep the ball in the park that he could be a No. 3 starter if everything breaks right. How his changeup develops will likely determine if he ends up in the bullpen or the rotation. With Jason Jennings injured, Albers was called up and surrendered two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings against the Brewers. He'll get another start or two before Jennings is recalled, but he's not someone that's recommended at the moment. If he can show better control for an extended period of time, NL-only leaguers could consider him. Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only formats. Dallas Braden LHP Athletics A 24th round selection out of Texas Tech in 2004, Braden surprised scouts his first two years after signing. The 6'1", 185-pound Braden looked strong at two Low Single-A levels after signing, posting a 3.89 ERA and 59/9 K/BB ratio in just 39 1/3 innings of work. The impressive debut gave the Athletics the confidence to assign Braden to High-A Stockton the following season, and he rewarded them with a 2.68 ERA and 64/11 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings. The all-important Double-A test came next, with Braden recording a mediocre 3.90 ERA and diminished 71/32 K/BB ratio in 97 innings of work. While the promotion didn't go exceedingly well, it was still encouraging enough that Braden looked like a future big leaguer. Unfortunately, Braden needed shoulder surgery after the 2005 season and was limited to just 37 1/3 innings last season. The left-hander was expected to make a full recovery, and it looked like he did after two strong outings for Midland and six shutout innings for Triple-A Sacramento to start the 2007 campaign. With Rich Harden hitting the DL, Braden will start against the Orioles on Tuesday and then the Devil Rays on Sunday. Harden could then come back and take back over, but AL-only leaguers could do worse than using Braden for the pair of starts. He has good command most often, and his screwball could work against weaker offenses at least initially. He's more likely to end up in relief in the longer term, however. Recommendation: Consider using in deeper AL-only formats. Phil Hughes RHP Yankees With Alex Gordon and Delmon Young already in the majors, Hughes was the top prospect still in the minor leagues. The 2004 first round selection was absolutely dominant last year, posting an insane 168/34 K/BB ratio in 146 innings between Single-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. There was some thought that the right-hander could break camp with the Yankees if injuries struck, but Hughes struggled with his command and was assigned to Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Indeed, Hughes started off poorly, giving up seven runs over 10 innings in his first two starts. He rebounded in his last outing however, throwing six scoreless innings while striking out 10 and yielding just two baserunners. Despite not turning 21 until late June, Hughes has the stuff and command necessary to succeed right away. His fastball sits in the mid-to-low 90s with excellent control, allowing him to induce more than his share of grounders. Hughes' curveball is also a plus offering to go with a passable slider and an above average changeup. The Yankees could have gone to another prospect to start Thursday's game against the Blue Jays, but Hughes is already the club's best choice both in the short and long term despite his lack of continued success in the early going. AL-only leaguers will want to put in a significant bid, and even those in shallow mixed leagues will want to pursue him aggressively. He's quite capable of posting a strong strikeout rate and an ERA under 4.00. Also, if he starts off strong there will be no reason for the Yankees to send him back to the minors, and 14 wins could well be achieved. Even if he does head back to the minors after just one start, he'll be back soon enough to be worth stashing away. Recommendation: Bid aggressively in all leagues. Felix Pie OF Cubs Signed as a 16-year-old free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Pie has long been touted as the Cubs' center fielder of the future. After several years of flashing a broad skill set in the low minors, Pie had a breakout 2005 campaign for Double-A West Tennessee. His .304/.349/.554 line was the best Pie had posted since a 55 game stint in Rookie ball, and that he was finally translating his 6'2" frame into some home runs was very encouraging. However, Pie managed to play in only 59 games that season, mostly due to a foot injury. Moved up to Triple-A Iowa for 2006, Pie wasn't able to show the same power he displayed the year prior. However, his .283/.341/.451 line was hardly embarrassing, and he was young for the league at just 21-years-old. I'm pretty bearish on Pie, particularly in the short-term. His tools are excellent, but there are still too many areas where he's yet to turn them into baseball skills. His defense isn't quite as good as it should be, he still chases too many breaking pitches, he doesn't draw enough walks, he can't steal bases efficiently (62% success rate), and his power has yet to materialize for an extended period of time. Since he's still young, there's plenty of time for Pie to continue working on these areas, but he's unlikely to be even an average regular for another couple of years. Pie, who was hitting .444 with a 5/9 K/BB ratio in 11 games for Iowa, was promoted to the majors with Alfonso Soriano hurting last week. He's gone 5-for-25 with six strikeouts since, and now the Cubs' outfield is rather crowded with Pie, a healthy Soriano, Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, and Matt Murton. Since Pie still needs more time in the minors, it's likely that he'll be sent down within a few days to open up more at-bats for the rest of the group. Since he is capable of stealing a few bases, Pie could be a useful NL-only leaguer if he was to secure an everyday job, but expectations should be kept low for now. Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues. Danny Putnam OF Athletics A sweet swinging corner outfielder out of Stanford University, Putnam was a typical Athletics' selection in the supplemental first round of the 2004 draft. Possessing little speed or defensive value and standing just 5'10" tall, Putnam wasn't a favorite of most scouts. Since he also lacked ideal power, he fell to the Athletics at 36th overall. Putnam's minor league career has been somewhat erratic thus far, failing to back up strong performances at multiple levels. He performed well in Vancouver after signing, but then looked overmatched after being promoted to Kane County. However, he then posted a fine 2005 season at High-A Stockton, batting .307 with 37 doubles, 15 homers, and a 92/66 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, Putnam was off to a slow start before missing most of June and July with a strained knee ligament last year. He hit well in August after returning, batting .343 with six homers, so the injury didn't look like it was of any long-term significance. With Milton Bradley going on the disabled list, Putnam will get a few weeks in the majors. He was off to a fine start, batting .327 with seven doubles and two homers in 13 games. The Athletics don't plan to use him much over the next few weeks, but he could become a useful regular in time. If things break right, he could be a better version of Frank Catalanotto. He's worth stashing away in leagues with deeper farm systems. Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only and keeper formats. Prospect Profiles Luke Hochevar RHP Royals Although he was selected just 40th overall by the Dodgers in the 2005 draft, Hochevar was seen as a much better talent than the draft position would indicate. Rumors of big contract demands and the presence of agent Scott Boras hurt the junior out of the University of Tennessee, and he predictably asked for $3.5-$4 million after the draft. Negotiations dragged out as Hochevar failed to start attending classes again at Tennessee, which would have ended his eligibility to sign, and the right-hander eventually changed agents to the Sosnick-Cobbe Sports agency. However, after all involved parties agreed to a $2.98 million bonus, Hochevar reneged on the deal and changed agents back to Boras. After that, there was quite a bit of spin coming from all different angles and it was difficult to tell what exactly happened. Either way, the whole situation was an odd one, and figures to be just another reason why teams will shy away from Boras clients. The series of events doesn't shine particularly well on Hochevar either, but it's not something that figured to affect his perceived value much. After four strong outings in an independent league, the Royals selected Hochevar first overall last June and signed him to a major league deal that included a $3.5 million bonus. The lesson here, as always, is that Boras is going to win. After signing in early August, Hochevar was assigned to Low Single-A Burlington of the Midwest League. He made just four starts and was allowed to throw only 15 1/3 innings, but he was successful having allowed just two earned runs with a 16/2 K/BB ratio. A stint in the Arizona Fall League followed, with Hochevar giving up eight runs on 13 hits in 8 1/3 innings of work. The right-hander was then shut down after his third appearance in the league, with the club citing a shoulder strain as the reason. The injury wasn't expected to be of any long-term significant, and there have been no reports of the shoulder acting up since. A strong spring training allowed Hochevar to be assigned to Double-A Wichita to begin the season, and he's continued to impress while in the Texas League. The 23-year-old right-hander has posted a 3.21 ERA to go with a 27/7 K/BB ratio in 22 innings thus far. Three of the runs he's given up were on a pair of homers by streaking top prospect Sean Rodriguez, who was profiled here last week, and are the only homers he's given up in the four starts. Hochevar was seen as someone who would advance quickly once reaching the minors, in large part due to his plus arsenal of pitches. His fastball reaches the mid-90s and his slider is also an excellent offering, but that he's able to mix in a quality changeup and a curveball add to his projectability. On the down side, Hochevar had a pension for walking too many batters in college and is an extreme flyball pitcher, so he's likely to top out as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter instead of a true ace. Still, he'll probably be ready for the majors late this season and is someone who could provide plenty of value in AL-only formats right away. He'll be worth pursuing aggressively when he's called up. Jarrod Saltalamacchia C Braves When it comes to evaluating prospects, I'm a strong believer in exercising a great deal of patience when looking at a youngster's production. Sometimes players do indeed drop off and end up lesser prospects or fail to reach the majors altogether, but if the skill set and previous production are there they are more likely to revert to being productive than not. Additionally, if the player involved was struggling and has a reasonable excuse that was only of short-term concern, like a minor injury that isn't likely to come back or a personal issue, than that player's status should take even less of a hit after a series of poor performances. Since all of the above applies to Saltalamacchia, he was one player who needed to remain near the top of prospect rankings this winter. A supplemental first rounder in the 2003 draft out of a Florida high school, Saltalamacchia was seen as a big kid with a promising bat and questionable defensive skills. The switch-hitter had a fine debut in the Gulf Coast League that season, in large part because he drew 28 walks in 165 plate appearances. The next season at Single-A Rome, Saltalamacchia hit for a higher average and showed more home run power, but his plate discipline slipped and the overall performance was nothing that suggested he was a top prospect. On the plus side, his defense was proving to be adequate behind the plate, and the Braves had resisted the urge to try him at a less demanding position to see if his bat would flourish. That decision proved fruitful in 2005, as Saltalamacchia broke out in a big way at High-A Myrtle Beach. The then 20-year-old showed every skill that could be hoped for, batting .314/.394/.519 with a 99/57 K/BB ratio in 459 at-bats. The strikeouts were a bit high, but Saltalamacchia's plate discipline still graded out as above average and he wasn't all that bad at hitting breaking pitches either. Add in that he managed to post that kind of production at a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league, and Saltalamacchia looked like a star in the making. Unfortunately, 2006 wasn't as kind to the Florida native. He struggled with a wrist injury early in the season, and ended up batting just .230/.353/.380 in 92 games played. That Saltalamacchia had increased his walk rate was the lone obvious improvement, but a closer look reveals a much less disappointing performance. After going on the disabled list with a sore wrist in early July, Saltalamacchia returned to slug .649 with a 13/21 K/BB ratio in 74 at-bats between July and August. That alone should be enough to keep prospect watchers intrigued, but he wasn't done impressing just yet. The strong performance continued in the Arizona Fall League, where the switch-hitter went 13-for-23 with three homers and five walks before being shut down with a hamstring injury. Add in that he was throwing out a fair percentage of runners and that the club seemed content with the rest of his defense, and the 2006 season wasn't a wasted year. Back at Double-A Mississippi to start the 2007 campaign, Saltalamacchia is reminding everyone that he's a top prospect. Through 14 games he's batting .373 with four homers and four doubles to go with an impressive 9/10 K/BB ratio. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws The strong early performance would seem to give the Braves some options when it comes to the now 21-year-old. Although he's still listed at just 195 pounds, Saltalamacchia and his 6'4" frame is likely much closer to 230 pounds. Since his defense still isn't exceptional, the club could decide to move the big youngster out from behind the plate. And as it seems likely that he'd hit enough to be at least an average regular at first base, it's a move they may well make. If not, Saltalamacchia could be traded with Brian McCann set to start for the Braves for the next five seasons. That the Braves aren't shy about being creative in trades makes it more likely that he'll indeed be dealt. Saltalamacchia has the potential to hit .280 with 25 homers and 60 walks annually, so there should be plenty of teams lined up if he becomes available. |
| | |
| | #104 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Does Your League Suck? This week I'll provide some indications that your league sucks. Then, I'll give my opinion on Adrian Gonzalez, Kelly Johnson, and others. Finally, we'll hear some fantasy goals from the Dumpsters. Topic of the Week: Signs Your League Sucks Pretty much all of us have played in some lame leagues. In fact, many of us play in them year after year after year. Why? Simple: Even a lousy league is infinitely better than no league! In case you're wondering if your league qualifies as pitiable, here are some telltale signs:
Players of Note Adrian Gonzalez Those who've been around for a while weren't completely shocked by Gonzalez' emergence last season, when he hit .304 with 24 homers and 84 RBI. After all, he was the first overall pick in the 2000 amateur draft. Still, his performance was somewhat surprising, given that he didn't exactly dominate in the minors. And for that reason, owners may be skeptical that he can continue on his current pace for 2007. (Right now, he's hitting over .300 with six dingers and 20 RBI.) Considering his background and last year's solid showing, though, I think he's a safe bet to produce for you. Michael Young Waiting for slumping players to turn things around can be a tricky game in fantasy baseball, but if you invested a high draft pick in Michael Young, you really don't have much of a choice. At this point, his stock is way, way down, so you just have to hope he gets on track sooner rather than later. The fact that he's hit over .300 in each of the last four season is more than enough reason for optimism. Aaron Rowand Hitting .374, Rowand is giving owners reason to hope he can match his career numbers from 2004, when he batted .310 with 24 HR, 17 SB, and 94 runs. Back then, many were talking about him as a poor man's Carlos Beltran or Bobby Abreu. The two years that followed killed that sentiment along with most of his fantasy value. Perhaps the hot start is a sign that Rowand has regained some of the magic, but the last two years supply ample cause for skepticism. Even is he does keep his average over .300, he's unlikely to provide much in the way of power or speed. Corey Patterson Admittedly, Patterson is not off to a great start, hitting .263 with just one round tripper and three steals. However, it's tough to ignore the 45 bags he swiped last year. Despite rumors of a platoon with Jay Payton, it appears that Patterson has a fairly firm grip on a full-time role, so give him a long look if he's been dumped in your league. Kelly Johnson Even with the eligibility at second-base and the hot start (.294 with four HR), I'm not a big fan of Johnson. With the exception of 2001, when he tallied 23 HR and 25 SB for Single-A Macon, his minor-league career was not all that impressive. Over seven years, he posted a decent .281 AVG, but never again displayed the speed and power from 2001. Sell high. Akinori Otsuka Not that it took a genius, but I said at the beginning of the year that Otsuka would likely turn out to be a great bargain given Eric Gagne's tenuous situation and loss of velocity. With Gagne already on the DL for the second time this season, Otsuka's fantasy outlook just keeps getting brighter. The guy's a proven closer who boasts a lifetime ERA of 2.36 and racks up nearly a strikeout an inning. In other words, grab him if he is available! The Trash Dump To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com. The following emails are in response to my column on fantasy goals from two weeks ago. I have three fantasy goals: 1. It is better to lose with players you like (and root for), than to lose with guys you hate. Thus, get players you like. 2. Not trade away all of my pitching for hitting. Just most of it. 3. Don't blow my whole FAAB by mid-June. - Yokel GM I don't think you're going to have much success with that first goal of yours...unless maybe you're a Boston fan. {My goal is to} win sacrifice flies, a category inexplicably included in one of my leagues. Claim that this win was due to my vastly superior Sacrifice Flies Projection System. If other league members aren't sold, use fancy phrases like "regression to the mean" and "similarity scores" until they concede my superior intellect. - David Marble And I thought the games-played category in my hoops league was ridiculous! 1. Convince another owner to "build for next year" by trading me for Kerry Wood and Mike Hampton. Who I get in return is unimportant. 2. Find a "sleeper" who, for once, actually wakes up. - Todd Dell What are you doing with Kerry Wood and Mike Hampton??? 1. Not to get married. 2. Drink more. 3. Not to listen to anymore awful suggestions in this article. - Nick Palczak Touchι I suppose, but I can't put too much stock in the opinion of a guy whose second-most-prominent goal is to increase his frequency of inebriation. I have two goals this year: 1. Earn at least 300 Webkinz (if you don't know, don't ask) dollars for each of my children while I'm watching baseball games on the computer. 2. Be patient, don't trade my West Coast players because I have to wait until the morning to check their game stats. - Chris Mason Now that is a good dad! For my part, I'm working on getting my daughter's PC setup with a wireless adapter, so she can do her Webkinz while I'm working on articles. |
| | |
| | #105 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Randy Returns With no huge stories to discuss today and a whole bunch of interesting notes to get to, I'll skip the usual top-story introduction and instead talk briefly about something new here at Rotoworld. Starting this week, you can sign up to have "Daily Dose" delivered directly to your e-mailbox each afternoon. It'll be the same content you've come to expect from me in this space, but now the news and notes come right to you. Oh, and with the e-mail version of this column you won't have to stare at my ugly mug shot at the top of the page, which probably makes the whole thing worthwhile all by itself. To sign up, simply enter in your e-mail address on the little form that's located under "Sign Up For The Daily Dose" on the right-hand sidebar, a few inches below the sentence you're reading right now. While you go sign up, here are some notes from around baseball * Akinori Iwamura was placed on the disabled list Tuesday and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a strained right oblique muscle. One of the league's best players for the first three weeks of the season, Iwamura suffered the injury while going 2-for-3 with a double, two walks, and three runs scored in Monday's game against the Yankees. He heads to the DL with a .339/.479/.482 hitting line, 15 runs scored, and three stolen bases in 18 games. Jorge Cantu was recalled from Triple-A to fill Iwamura's spot on the roster, but manager Joe Maddon said Tuesday that Cantu will play exclusively first base and designated hitter. That means Ty Wigginton figures to see most of the playing time at third base with Iwamura out, giving him a nice value boost in AL-only leagues. Carlos Pena could also pick up some at-bats with Wigginton shifting to third base, although a platoon with Cantu would cut into his playing time. It was only 18 games, but Iwamura's strong start is interesting in the context of the scouting reports that came along with him from Japan. He's shown a lot less power than he did in Japan, which was to be expected, but he's also shown significantly more plate discipline than anticipated. Beyond that, his speedwhich was billed as merely "above average" by several prominent sourcesis clearly great once you watch him get down the first-base line once. The fact that Iwamura's top-notch speed wasn't more hyped when he signed is similar to the scouting reports on Kaz Matsui suggesting that he was a fantastic defensive shortstop. It immediately became apparent that Matsui was far from a great defender at shortstop, just as it's abundantly clear that Iwamura's speed is closer to Ichiro Suzuki-level than above average. I'm hoping that he makes a quick recovery, because Iwamura has been a lot of fun to watch. * Randy Johnson started relatively strong in his return from the disabled list Tuesday, but the wheels came off in a four-run fifth inning. He gave up a total of six runs in five innings, serving up a pair of homers among the six hits he allowed. The good news is that Johnson's velocity looked pretty good despite an achy back and he struck out seven batters, so there's plenty of reason to think that he could quickly become a major fantasy asset once he works up a little more stamina. * Chris Carpenter took the first step in his recovery from a right elbow impingement by playing catch Tuesday for the first time in two weeks. Asked about it afterward, Carpenter said, "I felt strong and my arm felt real good. My shoulder felt strong, so I was excited about that." Barring a setback between now and then, he's expected to progress to throwing off a mound over the weekend and remains on track for an early May return. * The Yankees dropped their fifth straight game Tuesday and Chien-Ming Wang took the loss in his return from the disabled list, but he pitched reasonably well for a guy making his debut in late April. Coming back a spring hamstring injury, Wang gave up four runs in 6.1 innings, with two of the runs coming in to score on Carl Crawford's grand slam off reliever Mike Myers. Regardless of the injury Wang remains a good bet for a big decline this season, but he's safe to activate. * Gregg Zaun is scheduled to visit a hand specialist after leaving Tuesday's game with what the Blue Jays fear is a broken hand. Zaun was struck by a foul tip while behind the plate and is likely headed to the disabled list regardless of how severe the injury turns out to be. He's off to a slow start, but Zaun has caught 138 of the Blue Jays' first 178 innings. Jason Phillips will move into the starter's role, with Sal Fasano likely being called up from Triple-A to take over as his backup. * The Lincecum Watch: Tim Lincecum continues to overpower Triple-A hitters, throwing 6.1 no-hit innings in his latest start Monday. However, despite allowing zero hits he gave up his first run of the season and showed a concerning lack of command in the process, walking six batters. Daily Dose's favorite pitching prospect is now 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA, 32-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .113 opponent's batting average in 25 innings at Fresno. AL Quick Hits: Derek Jeter left Tuesday's game in the first inning after being hit on the thigh by a Scott Kazmir pitch, but said afterward that he doesn't expect to miss any time Nick Swisher called his hamstring injury "no big deal" and said that he expects to avoid the disabled list Coco Crisp (oblique) sat out his third straight game Tuesday, with Wily Mo Pena going 0-for-3 with several misplays in center field while starting in his place Dan Johnson (hip) has begun a minor-league rehab assignment at Triple-A and may be needed quickly to help the injury depleted A's Jim Thome was limited to pinch-hitting duties Tuesday because of sore ribs Rondell White (calf) is reportedly "doing much better" and is expected to be activated by Friday Alex Rodriguez's 23-game hitting streak was snapped Tuesday, but he did draw a walk while going 0-for-3 Todd Jones blew his second save Tuesday and then took the extra-inning loss. NL Quick Hits: Felix Pie returned to the starting lineup Tuesday in center field, going 1-for-4 with both Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton on the bench X-rays on Carlos Delgado's sore hand came back negative Tuesday, but he went 0-for-5 against the Rockies On the same day that talk of Brett Myers eventually taking his job started up, Tom Gordon shook off a Wes Helms error to pitch a scoreless inning for his fourth save After catching in an extended spring training game Tuesday, Josh Bard (groin) is on track to come off the disabled list Friday Xavier Nady (hamstring) is expected to be out of the lineup until at least Friday Morgan Ensberg was a late scratch Tuesday because of an ankle injury Steve Finley started in center field over Willy Taveras or the third straight game Tuesday With his 564th career homer Tuesday, Ken Griffey Jr. moved past Reggie Jackson for 10th place on the all-time list and went deep for the first time this season. |
| | |