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06-02-07, 07:49 AM
| #176 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"  Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
|  Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Week That Was The closer merry-go-round plays a big role in this week's Week That Was along with some heavy handed moralizing and speechifying by that Yankee fan of Yankee fans, Mr. Schultz. Matt Morris: Matt Morris looked strong again this week, winning his 6th game of the season. Simply put, he will not keep up his success. If you own Morris, call everyone in your league, take out an ad, heck, even hire a skywriter, just crow and crow about the 2.66 ERA and SELL! When you get behind the numbers, it is pretty scary. First, Morris barely has more strikeouts than walks. Second, his last ERA under 4.00 was all the way back in 2003, and finally, he has never been the same pitcher since injuring his shoulder mid way through the 2004 campaign. SELL! Armando Benitez: In what must be viewed as a "what the heck" move, the Fish traded for Armando Benitez. I just cannot figure out why anyone wants a closer who continues to blow big game after big game. I just cannot. Apparently, Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez sees the light (at least for now). Gonzalez says he will stick with Kevin Gregg as his closer. What does this all mean? Well, Gregg holds some of his value, but now there is a much greater risk that he will lose his job. Henry Owens' value plummets as there are now two impediments (Gregg and Armando) to Owens getting his job back. Bottom line on Benitez if you really believe he can be a big game closer, I hope you have a large trust fund, because you are gullible and people will be fleecing you for years to come. Matt Capps: In more closer news, the Pirates announced that Matt Capps is in and Salomon Torres is out as the Pirates closer. Frankly, I am not surprised. Capps has better stuff and given that the Pirates are not going to win this year, they may as well train their future. If Capps is a free agent in your league, grab him. He may have a few bumps in the road, but closers not named Benitez are hard to come by. Scott Proctor: In a recurring episode of "how dumb can you be?," Scott Proctor hit Kevin Youklis in the 9th inning with the Yankees up by 6 runs. Papi followed with a hit, and voila, Proctor's stupidity leads to a potential rally, Youklis scoring, and the need to bring in Mariano Rivera to stop the bleeding right there. From a real life perspective, I just hope that Schilling has more class than Proctor and just retaliates by hitting a player in the back or side rather than coming dangerously close to a hitter's head. On the fantasy front, well, frankly, you should not own Proctor and his 13 BB/17K stat line anyway. However, if you do, you should expect another suspension. Any other roto effects here? Well, with Vizcaino and Farnsworth lighting fires and Proctor headhunting, the Yankees will have no choice but to use Mariano much more often. In the short term that will be good for Mariano owners as he will compile strong stats and more innings. Yankee fans just have to hope that they do not burn him out. Jason Giambi: It looks like the Giambino will be out at least 4-6 weeks with a partially torn plantar fascia tendon. (Sounds painful, no?) This is bad for Giambi and his owners, but has a number of positive roto-effects. First, Melky "leche" Cabrera will assume an everyday role. If he is available in your league, grab him. Second, it allows Johnny Damon to DH. This should keep Damon's legs fresher and lead to greater productivity fantasy-wise. Finally, without Giambi, the Yankees may be sparked into returning to taking pitches, moving runners, and doing the other sundry things that winners do, rather than waiting for the three run homer. Jerry Owens: With Darren Erstad being placed on the DL, the Chisox called up Jerrry Owens from Triple-A to assume the everyday centerfielder role. Owens has speed to burn and should be grabbed up by any owners in need of swipes (23 in two AAA months). Moreover, given that Owens was hitting over .300 in AAA, the batting average risks are somewhat reduced. So far, so good, as Owens went 2-4 with a swipe in his first start. Brad Hennessey: With the addition by subtraction of trading Armando Benitez, Brad Hennessey becomes the Giants closer. If you need saves, grab Hennessey why not? However, I recommend that you roster Kevin Correia as well. Hennessey has good ERA and WHIP numbers out of the pen this year. However, his low strikeout ratio worries me. Correia, on the other hand, has better strikeout numbers and, unlike Hennessey, is in his second year of successful relief pitching. Rickie Weeks: In a move that Brewer fans have been dreading but expecting, the team placed second baseman Rickie Weeks on the DL with more wrist problems. If you own Weeks, you have no choice but to wait it out. If you got an injury-prone discount, then no big deal you are getting what you paid for (I know, another participle dangled). However, if you paid full value, then shame, shame on you. As we repeat countless times on these pages, fantasy baseball success is about risk aversion! Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino will split 2B in the interim. Of the two, I like Graffanino better (for his name and his solid last two seasons). Lance Berkman: Lance Berkman may finally be heating up, hitting his first homer in almost three weeks Thursday. Now is the time to buy. Berkman is just too good of a hitter to lay low this long. He may not bust out for another 45 dingers, but by years' end, he will be a multi-position (1B/OF), 100 RBI performer you will be glad to have owned. BUY! Roy Halladay: The "Doc" is back as Roy Halladay returned from appendicitis to hurl seven scoreless innings against the Chisox this week. Expect Halladay to continue to pitch well the rest of the way. However, do not expect the big strikeout numbers. They show no signs of returning. Last but not least, this week's Schultz Says: "So much interesting news in Yankeeville this week and practically none of it baseball related. Within the last couple days, the New York tabloids alleged that Alex Rodriguez was cheating on his wife and the next night he responded by executing one of the bushiest of bush league moves: calling for a pop-up while running the bases. A-Rod's "I got it" play is so low class, you won't see anyone pull it in beer league softball. There's a number of words you could call A-Rod for this little ploy and Colton would be right in removing each and every one of them. After all, we are family friendly here at The Week That Was. I guess that little slap from the 2004 ALCS (you know, the one where the Yankees became the first team in baseball's history to blow a 3-0 lead) wasn't an isolated incident. If your league counts unsportsmanlike actions as a category, A-Rod's gotta be your number one pick. As for the headlines questioning his fidelity: I'm sure he'll remember this when he's considering whether to opt out of his contract. Surely the Cleveland Plain Dealer or the Florida Tribune have better things to cover. Another guy making news for his off-the-field activities is Elijah Dukes. This situation bears noting from a roto-perspective as Devil Ray ownership seems inclined to take some sort of remedial measures for Dukes' actions. It's unclear whether Stuart Sternberg was sincere in his comments about the team exacting their own discipline or simply displaying his dismay over Dukes' violent outburst. If this all passes over, expect Dukes' high power, low average stats to remain constant while Tampa Bay battles the Yankees for 4th place in the Eastern Division. If it doesn't, perhaps Dukes gets a change of scenery that provides him with the impetus to raise his game to a new level. This is a situation worth watching and Dukes may be an interesting player to take a low-risk gamble on if his current owner is worried . . . or overly ethical about the players on his roto-team. Retired closer Troy Percival may become the uber-sleeper of this year's season. The teams expressing interest in the former Angels closer (Phillies, Tigers, Indians) all seem to have questionable closer stability. Despite stories that his velocity is only in the high eighties, it sounds like Percival's comeback is going to occur somewhere. There's always a closer each year that improbably comes out of nowhere to save 20+ games. Could this year's model be Troy Percival? Response: I do not think Schultz is a Yankee fan. Oh, and do you think Schultzie was highlighting all of the ethical lapses on the last Indians team to win big (you know, where Indian pitcher Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn gets "friendly" with Mrs. Dorn (aka wife of Indian 3B Roger Dorn)? |
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06-03-07, 07:28 PM
| #177 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Interleague Returns Interleague baseball continues this week with some intriguing matchups, including Barry Zito (5-5, 4.21) taking on Dan Haren (6-2, 1.64) and his former Oakland teammates and a C.C. Sabathia (8-1, 3.78) vs Aaron Harang (6-2, 4.22) duel in Ohio. Jason Schmidt, Jeff Weaver and Joe Mauer will return to action, while the Dodgers play a major league season-high six southpaws this upcoming week. King Felix, Doc Halladay, Dice K and a lefty nicknamed Chin Strap get two starts in week 10. Find out why Ryan Howard could be in store for a tough week, Jose Guillen might have a big week and the latest on the injury report. The Week Ahead has done the research to help you make those difficult lineup decisions. Two-start pitchers: Great options: C.C. Sabathia CLE vs. KC Jorge De La Rosa, @ CIN Aaron Harang Dan Haren OAK vs. BOS Julian Tavarez, @ SF Barry Zito Chris Young SD vs. LA Mark Hendrickson, vs. SEA Felix Hernandez Erik Bedard BAL @ SEA Felix Hernandez, vs. COL Jason Hirsh Daisuke Matsuzaka BOS @ OAK Lenny DiNardo, @ ARI Micah Owings Tim Hudson ATL vs. FLA Sergio Mitre, vs. CHC Jason Marquis Aaron Harang CIN @ STL Brad Thompson, vs. CLE C.C. Sabathia Jered Weaver LAA vs. MIN Boof Bonser, @ STL Brad Thompson Derek Lowe LA @ PIT Paul Maholm, vs. TOR Tomo Ohka Barry Zito SF @ PHI Jon Lieber, vs. OAK Dan Haren Felix Hernandez SEA vs. BAL Erik Bedard, @ SD Chris Young James Shields TB vs. KC Gil Meche, @ FLA Sergio Mitre Tom Glavine NYM vs. PHI Jamie Moyer, @ DET Nate Robertson Roy Halladay TOR vs. TB Andrew Sonnanstine, @ LA Mark Hendrickson Mark Buehrle CHW vs. NYY Tyler Clippard, vs. HOU Wandy Rodriguez More strong options: Ted Lilly CHC @ MIL Claudio Vargas, @ ATL Kyle Davies Matt Cain SF @ ARI Micah Owings, vs. OAK Lenny DiNardo Boof Bonser MIN @ LAA Jered Weaver, vs. WAS Mike Bacsik Jason Marquis CHC @ MIL Dave Bush, @ ATL Tim Hudson Jon Garland CHW vs. NYY TBA, vs. HOU Jason Jennings Gil Meche KC @ TB James Shields, vs. PHI Jon Lieber Nate Robertson DET @ TEX Vicente Padilla, vs. NYM Tom Glavine Dave Bush MIL vs. CHC Jason Marquis, @ TEX Vicente Padilla Micah Owings ARI vs. SF Matt Cain, vs. BOS Daisuke Matsuzaka Jamie Moyer PHI @ NYM Tom Glavine, @ KC Jorge De La Rosa Sergio Mitre FLA @ ATL Tim Hudson, vs. TB James Shields Jon Lieber PHI vs. SF Barry Zito, @ KC Gil Meche Other two-starters: Jason Hirsh COL vs. HOU Wandy Rodriguez, @ BAL Erik Bedard Wandy Rodriguez HOU @ COL Jason Hirsh, @ CHW Mark Buehrle Mark Hendrickson LA @ SD Chris Young, vs. TOR Roy Halladay Vicente Padilla TEX vs. DET Nate Robertson, vs. MIL Dave Bush Jorge De La Rosa KC @ CLE C.C. Sabathia, vs. PHI Jamie Moyer Kyle Davies ATL vs. FLA Byung-Hyun Kim, vs. CHC Ted Lilly Tyler Clippard NYY @ CHW Mark Buehrle, vs. PIT Shawn Chacon Shawn Chacon PIT @ WAS Mike Bacsik, @ NYY Tyler Clippard Andrew Sonnanstine TB @ TOR Roy Halladay, @ FLA Wes Obermueller Julian Tavarez BOS @ OAK Dan Haren, @ ARI Doug Davis Paul Maholm PIT vs. LA Derek Lowe, @ NYY TBA Brad Thompson STL vs. CIN Aaron Harang, vs. LAA Jered Weaver Lenny DiNardo OAK vs. BOS Daisuke Matsuzaka, @ SF Matt Cain Wes Obermueller FLA @ ATL Buddy Carlyle, vs. TB Andrew Sonnanstine Mike Bacsik WAS vs. PIT Shawn Chacon, @ MIN Boof Bonser Team-by-team Game Totals: Seven-game schedule: ATL, BOS, CHC, CHW, HOU, KC, LA, NYY, OAK, PHI, PIT, SF, TB Six-game schedule: ARI, BAL, CIN, CLE, COL, DET, FLA, LAA, MIL, MIN, NYM, SEA, SD, STL, TEX, TOR, WAS Five-game schedule: none Rain threatened games: Monday, June 4: NYY @ CHW (40%), LA @ PIT (40%) Tuesday, June 5: BAL @ SEA (40%), KC @ CLE (40%), PIT @ WAS (40%), PHI @ NYM (80%), DET @ TEX (40%), Wednesday, June 6: PHI @ NYM (40%) Saturday, June 9: NYM @ DET (40%), LAA @ STL (40%) Stadium Factor: ESPN.com - MLB - Park Factor Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. Top Hitter's Park Schedules: 1. Great American Ballpark (Reds) 1.330 runs - 3 vs CLE 3. Coors Field (Rockies) 1.188 runs 3 vs HOU 4. Shea Stadium (Mets) 1.186 runs 3 vs PHI 5. Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 1.165 runs 3 vs PIT 6. Kauffman Stadium (Royals) 1.123 runs 3 vs PHI No Games: 2. Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.307 runs Top Pitcher's Park Schedules: 1. Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) .0746 runs 3 vs TB 2. Petco Park (Padres) 0.767 runs - 3 vs LA, 3 vs SEA 3. Turner Field (Braves) 0.805 runs 3 vs FLA, 4 vs CHC 5. RFK Stadium (Nationals) 0.867 runs 3 vs PIT 6. Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.869 runs 3 vs BAL No Games: 4. Minute Maid Park (Astros) 0.828 runs Caught Stealing %: Toughest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%) 1. Yadier Molina, STL 6-for-14 (57.1%) - DL 2. David Ross, CIN 12-for-23 (47.8%) 3 @ STL, 3 vs CLE 3. Ronny Paulino, PIT 20-for-36 (44.4%) 1 vs LA, 3 @ WAS, 3 @ NYY 4. Kenji Johjima, SEA 14-for-24 (41.7%) 3 vs BAL, 3 @ SD 5. Paul Lo Duca, NYM 17-for-28 (39.3%) 3 vs PHI, 3 @ DET 6. Brad Ausmus, HOU 15-for-23 (34.8%) 3 @ COL, 3 @ CHW Facing these elite catchers is bad news for the following players in the stolen base category: Johnny Damon (9-for-9 SB), Bobby Abreu (8-for-11 SB), Brian Roberts (19-for-22 SB), Corey Patterson (11-for-13 SB), Mike Cameron (7-for-9 SB), Marcus Giles (7-for-9 SB), Gary Sheffield (7-for-10 SB), Kaz Matsui (8-for-8 SB), Willy Taveras (13-for-21 SB) Easiest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%) 1. Jason Varitek, BOS 17-for-18 SB (5.6%) 4 @ OAK, 3 @ ARI 2. Jorge Posada, NYY 40-for-49 SB (18.4%) 4 @ CHW, 3 vs PIT 3. John Buck, KC 13-for-16 SB (18.8%) 1 @ TB, 3 @ CLE, 3 vs PHI 4. Johnny Estrada, MIL 26-for-33 (21.2%) 3 vs CHC, 3 @ TEX 5. Michael Barrett, CHC 25-for-32 (21.9%) 3 @ MIL, 4 @ ATL Facing these catchers is good news for Eric Byrnes (10-for-14 SB), Alfonso Soriano (8-for-10 SB), Ryan Theriot (8-for-10 SB), Kenny Lofton (16-for-19 SB), Rickie Weeks (8-for-10 SB), Corey Hart (7-for-7 SB), Ian Kinsler (7-for-7 SB) American League: Baltimore: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Boston: (3 vs. Right-handers, 4 vs. Left-handers) Chicago White Sox: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Cleveland: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Detroit: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Kansas City: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Los Angeles Angels: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers Minnesota: (4 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) note: FRI vs WAS (TBA) New York Yankees: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Oakland: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Seattle: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Tampa Bay: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Texas: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Toronto: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Notes: The Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners play at least three southpaws, while the Angels play just right-handers. That's good news for Jorge Posada (.356 vs LHPs), Derek Jeter (.343 vs LHPs), Manny Ramirez (.360 vs LHPs), Mike Lowell (.373 vs LHPs), Vladimir Guerrero (.375 vs RHPs), Orlando Cabrera (.331 vs RHPs), Jose Guillen (.421 vs LHPs), Kenji Johjima (.407 vs LHPs) And bad news for Wil Nieves (.103 vs LHPs), Bobby Abreu (.233 vs LHPs), Julio Lugo (.229 vs LHPs), J.D. Drew (.227 vs LHPs), Chone Figgins (.129 vs RHPs), Maicer Izturis (.200 vs RHPs), Shea Hillenbrand (.224 vs RHPs), Richie Sexson (.238 vs LHPs), Adrian Beltre (.238 vs LHPs) National League: Arizona: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Atlanta: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) note: TUE ATL vs FLA (TBA) Chicago Cubs: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Cincinnati: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Colorado: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Florida: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) Houston: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Los Angeles Dodgers: (1 vs. Right-handers, 6 vs. Left-handers) Milwaukee: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers) New York Mets: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Philadelphia: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) Pittsburgh: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers) note: SAT vs NYY (TBA) San Diego: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) San Francisco: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) St. Louis: (5 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers) note: THU vs CIN (TBA) Washington: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers) Note: The Astros, Phillies, Mets and Pirates go against three lefties, while the Dodgers play a MLB season-high six southpaws. The Cardinals don't face any. That's good news for Jayson Werth (.360 vs LHPs), Abraham Nunez (.364 vs LHPs), Ronny Paulino (.361 vs LHPs), Xavier Nady (.378 vs LHPs), Freddy Sanchez (.340 vs LHPs), Russell Martin (.373 vs LHPs), Luis Gonzalez, LA (.362 vs LHPs), Rafael Furcal (.340 vs LHPs) And bad news for Carlos Ruiz (.192 vs LHPs), Ryan Howard (.130 vs LHPs), Pat Burrell (.176 vs LHPs), Chris Duffy (.200 vs LHPs), Jack Wilson (.222 vs LHPs), Wilson Betemit (.158 vs LHPs), Juan Pierre (.200 vs LHPs) Some scheduled two-start pitchers in week 11: Daniel Cabrera, Jarrod Washburn, Julian Tavarez, Joe Kennedy, Justin Verlander, Vicente Padilla, Brian Bannister, C.C. Sabathia, Kevin Slowey, John Lackey, Chien-Ming Wang, Javier Vazquez, Scott Kazmir, Tomo Ohka, Carlos Zambrano, Jeff Suppan, Bronson Arroyo, Adam Wainwright, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Davies, Woody Williams, Aaron Cook, Randy Wolf, Greg Maddux, Adam Eaton, Orlando Hernandez, Zach Duke, Micah Bowie, Matt Morris and Randy Johnson Latest on the injury front: Outfielders: Moises Alou (quadriceps) return early June Garret Anderson (hip) return early June Marlon Anderson (elbow) return mid-July Rocco Baldelli (hamstring) return mid-June Jeff DaVanon (shoulder) return late June Chris Denorfia (elbow) out for the season Darin Erstad (ankle) return late June Brian Giles (knee) return early June Shawn Green (foot) return mid-June Jerry Hairston (shoulder) return early June Josh Hamilton (flu) return early June Reed Johnson (back) return July Bobby Kielty (calf) return early July Scott Podsednik (groin) return June Jason Repko (groin) might be out for the season Juan Rivera (leg) return July/August Dave Roberts (elbow) return mid-June Cody Ross (hamstring) return early June Reggie Sanders (hamstring) return June/July Rondell White (calf) return June Brad Wilkerson (hamstring) return early June Preston Wilson (knee) return early June Infielders Willy Aybar (hand) out indefinitely Hank Blalock (arm) return August Ryan Freel (neck) return mid-June Mike Jacobs (thumb) return mid-June Dan Johnson (hip) return mid-season Nick Johnson (leg) return July Chipper Jones (thumb) return mid-June Maicer Izturis (hamstring) return June 5 Corey Koskie (concussion) out indefinitely Dallas McPherson (back) return August/September Pablo Ozuna (leg) return August/September Jason Smith (abdomen) out indefinitely Chad Tracy (ribs) return early June Jose Valentin (knee) return June Rickie Weeks (wrist) return mid-June Catchers: Hector Gimenez (shoulder) likely out for the season Joe Mauer (quadriceps) return early June Yadier Molina (wrist) return early June Gregg Zaun (hand) return June Vance Wilson (elbow) return mid-June Designated Hitter: Jason Giambi (foot) out until at least late June, might be done for year Mike Piazza (shoulder) return mid-June Starting Pitchers: Brandon Backe (elbow) return August/September Jason Bergmann (elbow) return early June Chris Carpenter (elbow) return August/September Matt Clement (shoulder) return July/August Gustavo Chacin (elbow) out indefinitely Bartolo Colon (triceps) return June 8 Lance Cormier (shoulder) return June 5 Mike Hampton (ribs) out for the season Rich Harden (shoulder) return late June Shawn Hill (elbow) out indefinitely Luke Hudson (shoulder) out indefinitely Phil Hughes (hamstring) return July/August Josh Johnson (elbow) return mid-June Jeff Karstens (leg) out indefinitely Jon Lester (cancer) out indefinitely Francisco Liriano (elbow) out for the season Esteban Loaiza (shoulder) return July Adam Loewen (elbow) return September Pedro Martinez (shoulder) return August Wade Miller (back) return early June Eric Milton (elbow) return mid-June Mark Mulder (shoulder) return July Ricky Nolasco (elbow) return mid-July John Patterson (biceps) return mid-June Carl Pavano (elbow) out for the season Horacio Ramirez (shoulder) return mid-June Darrell Rasner (finger) return August/September Kenny Rogers (arm) return July Jason Schmidt (shoulder) return June 5 vs SD John Thomson (shoulder) return early June Jeff Weaver (shoulder) return June 9 @ SD Jake Westbrook (abdomen) return early June Jerome Williams (ankle) out indefinitely Jaret Wright (shoulder) out indefinitely Victor Zambrano (arm) return early June Important Relievers: Kris Benson (shoulder) likely out for the season Yhency Brazoban (shoulder) out indefinitely Jesse Crain (shoulder) out for the season Elmer Dessens (shoulder) return mid-June Justin Duchscherer (hip) return late June Mike Gonzalez (elbow) out for the season Tom Gordon (shoulder) - return early June Eddie Guardado (elbow) return mid-June Brandon League (shoulder) return late June Brett Myers (shoulder) return mid-June Arthur Rhodes (elbow) out for the season Fernando Rodney (biceps) return early June B.J. Ryan (elbow) out for the season Duaner Sanchez (shoulder) return August Huston Street (elbow) return early June Mike Timlin (shoulder) return early June Ryan Wagner (rotator cuff) out indefinitely Kerry Wood (triceps) return late June Joel Zumaya (finger) return August |
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06-04-07, 03:22 PM
| #178 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 June Outfielder Rankings The June player rankings are presented this week. Players are ranked based on how much I believe they'll be worth in 5x5 leagues over the rest of the year. Included along with the position rankings is an updated top 250 list. Click the links below to see the other positional and overall rankings for June. Outfielders Third Basemen Shortstops Second Basemen First Basemen & DH Catchers Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers Top 250 Overall Rising: Matt Holliday (8 to 6), Carlos Lee (10 to 8), Jeff Francouer (18 to 15), Magglio Ordonez (29 to 18), Torii Hunter (26 to 23), Curtis Granderson (33 to 28), Willy Taveras (37 to 32), Gary Matthews Jr. (40 to 33), Hunter Pence (73 to 41), Mike Cameron (52 to 47), Ken Griffey Jr. (69 to 57), Sammy Sosa (68 to 59), Randy Winn (78 to 64), Reggie Willits (NR to 79), Melky Cabrera (101 to 86), Jack Cust (NR to 97), Victor Diaz (NR to 102), Willie Harris (NR to 105) Falling: Alfonso Soriano (4 to 5), Bobby Abreu (6 to 10), Jermaine Dye (15 to 21), Johnny Damon (17 to 22), Chris Duffy (31 to 43), Rocco Baldelli (30 to 45), Ryan Freel (46 to 53), Jacque Jones (44 to 54), Dave Roberts (51 to 63), Brad Wilkerson (70 to 78), Kevin Mench (80 to 103), Nelson Cruz (82 to 111), Chris Snelling (110 to NR) - Lyle Overbay's broken hand will get Adam Lind back into the lineup on a regular basis. He'll start in left field, leaving Matt Stairs to handle first base against right-handers. Both should be fine plays in AL-only leagues until either Overbay or Reed Johnson returns next month. - Victor Diaz's two-homer game Sunday guarantees that he'll stick around after Jerry Hairston Jr. and Brad Wilkerson come off the DL. He debuts at No. 102. Nelson Cruz is likely in for a demotion this week. The Rangers could also send down Matt Kata, with Hairston taking over as Ramon Vazquez's platoon partner at third base. - Darin Erstad's ankle injury has made Jerry Owens the White Sox's center fielder and leadoff man against right-handers. Owens will stick around for more than the two or three weeks Erstad is out if he produces, and he should be a nice source of cheap steals in AL-only leagues. |
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06-04-07, 03:23 PM
| #179 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 June Starting Pitcher Rankings The June player rankings are presented this week. Players are ranked based on how much I believe they'll be worth in 5x5 leagues over the rest of the year. Included along with the position rankings is an updated top 250 list. Click the links below to see the other positional and overall rankings for June. Outfielders Third Basemen Shortstops Second Basemen First Basemen & DH Catchers Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers Top 250 Overall Rising: Brandon Webb (6 to 4), Daisuke Matszuzaka (8 to 6), Tim Hudson (15 to 12), John Lackey (17 to 14), Dan Haren (19 to 15), Jered Weaver (26 to 22), Randy Johnson (35 to 27), Ian Snell (34 to 28), Roger Clemens (40 to 31), Tim Lincecum (67 to 42), Gil Meche (66 to 55), Oliver Perez (68 to 56), James Shields (95 to 59), Orlando Hernandez (73 to 60), Noah Lowry (72 to 61), Josh Johnson (75 to 63), Fausto Carmona (NR to 66), Jeff Francis (80 to 67), Chad Gaudin (101 to 73), Joe Blanton (98 to 76), Homer Bailey (NR to 83), Kevin Slowey (103 to 87), Justin Germano (NR to 89) Falling: Roy Halladay (3 to 5), Carlos Zambrano (5 to 10), Matt Cain (11 to 17), Bronson Arroyo (20 to 29), Mike Mussona (30 to 48), Adam Wainwright (57 to 68), Kevin Millwood (52 to 71), Ervin Santana (58 to 79), Chris Carpenter (16 to 90), Clay Hensley (70 to 99), Kyle Lohse (74 to 103), Anthony Reyes (55 to 108), Jeremy Sowers (61 to 110), Anibal Sanchez (65 to 115), Zack Greinke (86 to 119), Adam Loewen (82 to NR), Phil Hughes (91 to NR) - Jason Schmidt will return this week after making just one rehab start. He was consistently in the high-80s in his lone rehab start, which is an improvement over where he was this spring and in his first three starts before going on the DL. Still, he's not going to dominate there. Odds are that he'll be up and down initially and gradually improve if he remains pain free. - In anticipation of his likely start this weekend, Bailey comes in at No. 83. His strikeout rate was down in Triple-A this year, and I'd honestly be more excited had it been Yovani Gallardo getting the opportunity this week. Still, Bailey's potential can't be overlooked. My guess is that he'll be too inconsistent to be of help in mixed leagues this year, but it'd still be nice to have him stashed away. |
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06-04-07, 03:24 PM
| #180 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 June Relief Pitcher Rankings The June player rankings are presented this week. Players are ranked based on how much I believe they'll be worth in 5x5 leagues over the rest of the year. Included along with the position rankings is an updated top 250 list. Click the links below to see the other positional and overall rankings for June. Outfielders Third Basemen Shortstops Second Basemen First Basemen & DH Catchers Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers Top 250 Overall Rising: Jason Isringhausen (17 to 14), Jose Valverde (19 to 16), Eric Gagne (30 to 24), Octavio Dotel (32 to 25), Jeremy Accardo (57 to 26), Matt Capps (34 to 27), Brad Hennessey (NR to 30), Kevin Gregg (NR to 33), Brad Lidge (41 to 34), Pat Neshek (52 to 40), Alan Embree (NR to 43), Angel Guzman (105 SP to 48), Eddie Guardado (NR to 50) Falling: Jonathan Papelbon (3 to 4), Huston Street (5 to 12), Ryan Dempster (15 to 20), Armando Benitez (20 to 29), Salomon Torres (27 to 49), B.J. Ryan (23 to NR), Henry Owens (31 to NR), Jason Frasor (33 to NR), Joel Zumaya (37 to NR), Bob Howry (48 to NR), Fernando Cabrera (49 to NR) - Back-to-back bad outings have taken Dan Wheeler's ERA from 3.04 to 4.85. He hardly deserves to lose his job -- he's still 9-for-10 in save chances -- but the Astros may decide to go back to Lidge anyway. Lidge has pitched eight hitless innings in his last seven appearances. - David Weathers is another who has done little wrong as a closer. Still, the Reds might turn to Guardado in save situations after he comes off the DL, something that could happen in a week or so. Weathers' ability to go multiple innings might make him more useful in a setup role than Guardado would be, especially considering that the Reds already have a couple of lefties in their pen. - The timing of the Pirates' switch from Torres to Capps in the closer's role was curious. After all, Torres was the superior pitcher in May, beating Capps in ERA 3.00 to 5.40. Still, it's seemed all along that the Pirates would be better off with Torres in the setup role he occupied for most of last year. He'll get more work, and he can pitch multiple innings on occasion. Capps is much more of a one-inning guy. He should be just fine in the ninth |
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06-04-07, 03:25 PM
| #181 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Homer Time? In discussing the likely call-up timetables for some of baseball's top pitching prospects in last week's "Gleeman Report" video for NBCSports.com, I hypothesized that the last-place Reds would give in and bring Homer Bailey up before long. It turns out, "before long" was actually "next week." While nothing official has been announced yet, both major newspapers in Cincinnati report that Bailey is scheduled to make his major-league debut Saturday against the Indians. While Tim Lincecum has stolen some of his thunder, Bailey entered this season second to only Phil Hughes among the best pitching prospects in baseball. Despite not turning 21 years old until last month, Bailey has gone 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 10 starts at Triple-A. His 51-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58.1 innings is a little less dominant than expected, but a .191 opponent's batting average shows that he's still been plenty overpowering. Bailey's long-term fantasy potential is huge, because he profiles as a top-of-the-rotation starter capable of producing strikeouts in bunches. However, like most 21-year-olds with 20 career starts above Single-A, he still has work to do when it comes to throwing strikes. Beyond that, a debut matchup against the Indians is a rough one, because Cleveland ranks second among MLB teams in scoring and no team has produced a higher OPS against right-handed pitching. Keeper leaguers shouldn't be afraid to go all-out for Bailey, but his value in one-year leagues is likely less than most probably imagine. He should have decent value in NL-only leagues at some point, but it may not come until the second half and likely won't be on the same level as Lincecum. In one-year mixed leagues, the odds of Bailey being more than a fringe starter aren't great and he's not worth busting your free-agent budget or waiver-wire priority on. While Reds fans hope that Bailey can give them something to cheer for in a what has the look of an otherwise brutal season, here are some other notes from around baseball * Originally slated to start Monday against the White Sox, Roger Clemens has been scratched from his season debut because of a groin injury. Clemens told the Yankees that his groin is simply "fatigued," but he's scheduled to undergo an MRI Monday to determine if something more significant is at play. If no further damage is found, Clemens is currently penciled in to debut Saturday against the Pirates. In the meantime, the Yankees will turn to Matt DeSalvo to start in Clemens' place Monday, leaving Kei Igawa to work on his mechanics in the minors for a while longer. Igawa started Sunday at Triple-A, allowing two earned runs over seven innings while striking out nine. If Clemens' debut needs to be delayed for more than one turn through the rotation, expect Igawa to get the nod over DeSalvo, who has zero fantasy value. Phil Hughes isn't close to returning. * The frenzied "What's wrong with Albert Pujols?!" notes keep rolling into my e-mailbox, but Pujols has quietly recovered from a slow start to put up his usual huge numbers. After smacking a pair of homers Sunday, Pujols is batting .417 with five homers and a 1.217 OPS since a four-hit game against the Tigers on May 18. If you want a more long-term view, consider that Pujols was hitting just .197 through April 20, but has batted .333 with a .953 OPS in 38 games since then. In other words, nothing is wrong with Pujols. It simply takes someone's season totals a while to round back into shape when he begins the year in a 12-for-61 slump. Pujols is now sporting an overall hitting line of .292/.378/.510 and is on pace for 35 homers, 95 RBIs, and 95 runs scored. While not quite in line with his career norms, those are amazing numbers considering how poorly he started the season and you can bet that they'll continue to rise. * Getting plunked by a John Danks fastball Sunday is going to cost Lyle Overbay 4-6 weeks after he was diagnosed with a fractured left hand. Losing a good left-handed hitter from a primarily right-handed lineup that's already struggling to score runs is a big blow for the Blue Jays, but they do have some depth in corner bats. Matt Stairs figures to see most of the time at first base with Overbay sidelined, opening up a spot in the outfield for Adam Lind. Lind got off to a solid start, but has hit just .202 with a .543 OPS since May 1 and may have been in danger of being sent down to Triple-A prior to Overbay's injury. However, with a good minor-league track record and .770 OPS in 217 big-league plate appearances, Lind figures to start hitting eventually. Because both Stairs and Lind hit left-handed, the Blue Jays may move Troy Glaus across the diamond against southpaws, with John McDonald replacing him at third base. AL Quick Hits: According to the Chicago Sun-Times, the Yankees and White Sox have discussed a Bobby Abreu-for-Jermaine Dye swap Following a brief minor-league rehab assignment, the Twins are now hoping to have Joe Mauer (quadriceps) back Friday With zero steals in the past six games, Brian Roberts revealed Sunday that he's been playing through a hamstring injury for "maybe two weeks" Hit in the eye by a bouncing ball Saturday, Akinori Iwamura is expected to miss most of this week Andy Pettitte said afterward that back spasms led to his fifth-inning struggles and early exit Sunday night against the Red Sox Jeremy Sowers dropped to 1-6 with a loss Sunday against the Tigers and appears headed for Triple-A once Jake Westbrook (oblique) returns Ervin Santana turned in another strong outing at home Sunday, but heads to St. Louis for his next start With Doug Mientkiewicz (wrist) out 6-8 weeks, Johnny Damon is preparing for action at first base Kevin Slowey turned in an impressive big-league debut Friday, holding the A's to one run over six strike-pumping innings. NL Quick Hits: Carlos Beltran (knee) missed his third straight start Sunday, but hopes to play Tuesday Brian Giles (knee) is eligible to return from the disabled list Tuesday, but likely won't be back until at least the weekend Takashi Saito (hamstring) exited a save situation Sunday, giving Jonathan Broxton a chance for some saves this week Hunter Pence went 4-for-5 with a homer Sunday, giving him nine multi-hit games in his past 11 starts and 19 total extra-base hits in just 128 at-bats ... After homering Sunday, Adam LaRoche is batting .291 with 19 RBIs since hitting just .133 in April Tim Lincecum was knocked around Sunday for the first time since his big-league debut, but still managed six strikeouts in 6.1 innings With eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings of one-run ball Sunday, Sean Marshall appears to have secured a spot in the Cubs' rotation Moises Alou (quadriceps) reportedly suffered a setback while running Saturday and is unlikely to return Tuesday The Cubs recalled Felix Pie from Triple-A, but it's unclear how many at-bats he'll receive this time around Troy Tulowitzki (groin) sat out Sunday's game, but expects to be back in the lineup Tuesday. |
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06-05-07, 04:10 PM
| #183 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Clemens Finally Ready? An MRI on Roger Clemens' "fatigued groin" reportedly showed torn scar tissue in the area. That sounds really bad, but it's actually pretty good news and means that Clemens will likely be able to finally make his long-awaited season debut Saturday against the Pirates. Clemens played catch Monday and is slated to throw a bullpen session Wednesday, at which point the Yankees hope to be able to replace his "penciled-in return" for a penned-in version. Meanwhile, general manager Brian Cashman responded to reports that the Yankees could void Clemens' contract by saying that the team has no plans to do so. While the thought of ending the Clemens comeback before it even began made for good headlines in New York, it makes no sense from the Yankees' point of view. Because he's on a minor-league contract, Clemens doesn't begin to earn his prorated $28 million in salary until he actually pitches in the majors. For a lot more about Clemens' ever-changing situation and the rest of the Yankees' significant drama, check out Cliff Corcoran from Bronx Banter joining Gregg Rosenthal, Tiffany Simons, and Yours Truly on NBCSports.com's "Fantasy Fix" show. While the Yankees shift their focus to the Wild Card race from their home in a last-place tie with the Devil Rays in the AL East, here are some other notes from around baseball * Chipper Jones is eligible to return from the disabled list Friday, but that sounds highly unlikely after Jones updated the status of his injured hands Monday. "I came in today and said, 'Put me in a cast, both hands," Jones said. "I feel like they need to be immobilized because taking off my socks and pulling up my pants" hurts. The good newsif there is any for a man who may or may not be walking around Atlanta with socks on and pants around his anklesis that a CT scan Monday revealed no breaks or fractures. * Derek Lowe took a no-hitter into the seventh inning Monday against the Pirates, but had to settle for merely a win while allowing four runs in 7.2 innings. It was just Lowe's second victory this season when allowing more than one run and even that almost didn't happen. With Takashi Saito sidelined with a hamstring injury, Jonathan Broxton took over closing duties and had a very shaky ninth inning. Entering the game with a two-run lead, Broxton gave up two hits and a walk, cutting the Dodgers' margin to 6-5 and allowing the tying run to reach third base before wriggling out of the jam. It sounds like Saito will sit out most of this week, meaning Broxton will likely have another chance to put together an "easy" save. His short-term fantasy value is at an all-time high, but Saito is in no danger of losing ninth-inning duties as long as he can avoid a lengthy absence. * In a departure from Rich Harden's expected recovery timetable, manager Bob Geren said Monday that he hopes to have the oft-injured right-hander back from the disabled list "in a couple of weeks." Geren indicated that Harden will likely pitch out of the bullpen when he returns, which immediately created speculation that the A's are grooming him for the closer role with Huston Street also sidelined with an arm injury. However, assistant general manager David Forst tried to end that speculation by saying that Harden would simply be worked back slowly as a reliever before resuming his role as a starter. Still, Geren said that moving Harden to the bullpen full time "has been talked about" and the A's certainly need relief help at the moment. Given his propensity to break down physically despite continuing to possess top-notch stuff it could be the best way to get value out of Harden. * Manager Mike Scioscia broke the news to Shea Hillenbrand that he's no longer the Angels' regular designated hitter, with the team choosing instead to start Reggie Willits while shuffling Garret Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero through the DH spot. Hillenbrand has a history of lashing out at managers and general managers who don't have the same rose-colored view of his abilities that he possesses, but he was amazingly restrained this time around. Rather than repeating his past history by calling general manager Bill Stoneman names, anonymously writing "this ship is sinking" on a clubhouse billboard, or nearly brawling with Scioscia, Hillenbrand said: "This is a pretty big step backward for me personally, but the welfare of the team comes first. Whatever role he wants to put me in, I'm here." With Juan Rivera eventually adding another bat to the mix, Hillenbrand seems likely to be traded. AL Quick Hits: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman reportedly has no interest in a rumored Bobby Abreu-for-Jermaine Dye swap David Ortiz's homer Monday was his first since May 9 Jay Gibbons has fallen so far out of favor with the Orioles that manager Sam Perlozzo called demoting him to the minors "an interesting thought" when asked about it Monday After struggling Monday, Felix Hernandez has given up 42 hits in 25.1 innings since returning from the disabled list Despite a 0.87 ERA in four post-injury starts at Triple-A, Jon Lester (forearm) is expected to make at least one more minor-league rehab start at Pawtucket With Andrew Miller dominating in the minors and Kenny Rogers (shoulder) on the comeback trail, the Tigers have reportedly been shopping Mike Maroth Along with demoting David Aardsma and Mike MacDougal to Triple-A, the White Sox dropped Paul Konerko to sixth in the batting order Monday Mark Ellis hit for the cycle Monday night against the Red Sox, but it was Eric Chavez who provided the walk-off homer after Alan Embree blew a save. NL Quick Hits: Michael Barrett and Carlos Zambrano "talked" and "remain close" after their fight in the dugout and clubhouse Friday, but Barrett won't be behind the plate when Zambrano takes the mound Wednesday Kevin Gregg allowed an earned run Monday for the first time since May 9, but improved to a perfect 8-for-8 in save opportunities by closing out a three-run lead Alfonso Soriano went 5-for-5 with three RBIs Monday, homering for the third straight game Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) has not been cleared to throw off a mound and is reportedly unlikely to return before August San Diego is rumored to be interested in Adam Dunn, whose fantasy stock would plummet with home games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park Prince Fielder tied Alex Rodriguez for the major-league lead Monday with his 20th homer In an effort to clear a lineup spot for Felix Pie, the Cubs are reportedly shopping Jacque Jones Mike Jacobs (thumb) is still at least 10 days from swinging a bat. |
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06-05-07, 04:11 PM
| #184 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Prospects: Buchholz and Slowey We're just 48 hours away from one of my favorite days of the year, the Rule 4 draft. ESPN2 will have coverage of the event starting at 2 PM ET, and will continue until 6 PM. If you can get the day off, posses a DVR, or have a schedule conducive to watching the event, I'd highly recommend it. The draft being televised provides a quick and easy way to get scouting reports on each player, including their physical stature, tools, projection, and statistical profile. I'm interested to hear what readers think of both the picks made and of the quality of the coverage, so I'll encourage comments. Next week I'll rank the top 15 properties from the draft, taking into account the player's isolated value, likelihood of fulfilling his potential, and readiness for the majors. Since we're a fantasy site, I'll also take into account the player's contributions relative to standard 5x5 leagues as well as any organizational philosophies or park factors that may come into play. The week after I'll rank and profile the 16-30 best prospects, and provide notes on some other intriguing draft picks. Those in keeper leagues should obviously be paying plenty of attention, but all fantasy players should begin getting a feel for who's coming down the pike either for fantasy purposes or for their hometown team. Lastly, before we get on to this week's column, I just have to link to Double-A Mississippi manager Phillip Wellman's tirade on Friday. Apparently, Wellman was upset when one of his players was ejected for using a foreign substance, and what followed was perhaps one of the greatest outbursts ever caught on film. To say that Wellman got his money's worth with this ejection is the understatement of the year. If you haven't already seen it, it's an absolute must. Callups Yunel Escobar SS/3B Braves A second round selection in the 2005 draft after defecting from Cuba, Escobar is already 24 years old despite having just two years experience in U.S. professional baseball. The 6'2", 200-pound right-hander looked strong in both the Appalachian and South Atlantic leagues after signing. The Braves decided to get aggressive and moved Escobar up to Double-A Mississippi the following season, but Escobar struggled hitting for average or power. While he has decent speed, Escobar also converted just 7-of-16 stolen base attempts. A late surge in the Arizona Fall League gave Escobar some hope, and he's turned things around by hitting .333/.379/.456 for Triple-A Richmond this season. Escobar's work with the glove isn't as good as one would expect, and his defense won't vault him into an everyday shortstop. He's fine at second or third and could be an acceptable utility player, but the Braves would prefer to see what he could do as a starter first. Since he doesn't draw many walks and hasn't shown the power that some scouts predicted, he's unlikely to be an average regular. However, with Chipper Jones going down this past week, Escobar will get a chance to start five times per week in the majors. He's capable of hitting .280 or better right now and he has hit a homer and two doubles since the promotion, but I wouldn't count on continued power output. He also won't steal many bases, so he's not a great option for the next two weeks. Recommendation: Claim in deep NL-only formats. Jerry Owens OF White Sox A second rounder by the Expos in 2003, Owens didn't look like much more than a fifth outfielder during his first full season in 2004. Traded to the White Sox that winter, Owens began performing like a quality prospect after batting .331/.393/.406 with 38 steals in 58 attempts. His defense still needed work, he'd need to improve his stolen base percentage, and he'd have to be a center fielder to become a regular, but there was a decent chance that would happen. Owens did improve his work on the basepaths in 2006, but he also regressed at the plate and showed no improvement in the field. Assigned to Triple-A Charlotte to begin the 2007 campaign, Owens has looked better while batting .305 to go with a 26/26 K/BB ratio and 23 steals in 30 attempts. With Darin Erstad hurt and none of the club's other options playing well, Owens will get a chance to start in center field against right-handers for the next four weeks. He's been brutal against left-handers in the past and his defense still isn't worthy of the position, but he'll have his uses. Since he could hit .290 against right-handers to go with five steals a month, he's worth more than a nominal bid in AL-only leagues. Erstad owners may want to pursue him a little more aggressively, just to cover their bases. Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues. Kevin Slowey RHP Twins The callup of the week, Slowey is going to get a lot of attention in AL-only leagues. Slowey was a 2005 second rounder out of Winthrop University, where his excellent command, approach, and deception made him a relatively sure bet to have a big league career. How good the right-hander could become was very much in doubt, but he was not projected to be more than a No. 3 starter. Slowey signed quickly and looked good after debuting in professional baseball, recording an 84/8 K/BB ratio in 72 innings in the low minors. High-A figured to be a better test and Slowey passed with flying colors thanks to an insane 1.01 ERA and 99/9 K/BB ratio in 89 1/3 innings. Slowey moved up to Double-A New Britain mid-season and continued pitching exceptionally well. His 3.19 ERA was a big jump, but his peripherals were still very strong and there was little reason to expect Slowey to struggle at higher levels. Indeed, the Twins got aggressive with the right-hander and assigned him to Triple-A Rochester to start the 2007 campaign. He's responded well again, recording a 1.57 ERA and 57/5 K/BB ratio before being promoted. Slowey doesn't have ace stuff, but you sure couldn't tell that from his results. His fastball typically sits around 90 MPH and his slider and changeup are plus but not truly dominant pitches. A smart pitcher who hits his spots and keeps hitters off balance, Slowey shouldn't have a problem succeeding in the majors. While projecting him to be a No. 3 starter still seems reasonable, one has to give him the benefit of the doubt given how excellent he's been in the minors. Thus, it's best to expect No. 2 starter results in time. Maybe he won't be quite that good right away, but it'd be surprising if Slowey didn't have a very good career and I still wouldn't bet against immediate success either. With the Twins lacking quality options at the back of their rotation, Slowey is getting his chance in the majors. He was called up to face the Athletics last week and gave up just one run in six innings of work. The Twins will stick with him for good as long as he produces, though there will be some pressure with Matt Garza still down in Triple-A. Those in mixed leaguers should take a chance on the right-hander, but are probably better off only spot starting him at first. Recommendation: Claim in all leagues. Andrew Sonnanstine RHP Devil Rays I wrote about Sonnanstine a few weeks ago, saying that he had a chance to make a contribution in the majors this season but would have to battle an impressive group of alternatives at Triple-A Durham. With the back of the Devil Rays' rotation providing the club almost no chance at winning, the team turned to J.P. Howell and Sonnanstine to replace Jae Seo and Casey Fossum. I'd recommend checking out the link for a detailed review of Sonnanstine, but the short version I'll review here. The right-hander lacks great stuff, and his consistently quality results have been met with skepticism at each stop in the minors. His fastball only sits in the high-80s, but his changeup and slider are quality offerings and his command is excellent. A developing splitter should also help. The right-hander has used this repertoire to record a 2.55 ERA entering 2007 and has added to his impressive resume with a 2.66 ERA for Triple-A Durham this season. In part because he lacks plus stuff, Sonnanstine does give up more hits, including more homers, than most pitchers who have such excellent peripherals. That means he's unlikely to ever become a front of the rotation starter, but he could post ERAs around 4.00 while eating plenty of innings. I suspect he may need an adjustment period after reaching the majors, but he's still worth taking a chance on in AL-only formats. Mixed leaguers should only consider the right-hander when he has very favorable matchups. Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues. Prospect Profiles Clay Buchholz RHP Red Sox There's no prospect watchers out there that are going to be learning who Buchholz is today. He's a dynamite pitching prospect, and since he's played for a high-profile team, he's been given a lot of coverage since being drafted in 2005. However, still up for debate is how good Buchholz can become, and when he'll reach the level of a productive major leaguer. Understanding a reasonable answer to both questions will help fantasy owners evaluate Buchholz's value accurately, so I'll check in on both fronts. Despite his prospect stardom, Buchholz hasn't had a typical career path before being drafted. The right-hander went undrafted out of high school, and then played briefly as a position player for McNeese State. He transferred to Angelina Junior College in Texas, and suddenly everything clicked. Buchholz used his athleticism to dominate both on the mound and at the plate while playing the outfield. Big league clubs were impressed enough to start looking at Buchholz as early as the late first round in the 2005 draft. The Red Sox eventually took the plunge, snagging Buchholz with the 42nd pick. Assigned to Lowell of the New York-Penn League after signing, Buchholz has about an effective debut as could have been expected. He showed both control and plus stuff on the mound, and ended up posting a 2.61 ERA and 45/9 K/BB ratio in 41 innings of work. The Red Sox had to be exceptionally pleased. Buchholz had little experience pitching for someone who was already in his age 20 season, and his performance on the mound was nearly flawless. He didn't get buy just on stuff, but hit his spots and showed a better approach than expected. Promoted to Single-A Greenville to start the 2006 campaign, Buchholz continued to dominate. The 6'3', 200-pound right-hander recorded a 2.62 ERA, striking out 117 and walking just 29 batters in 103 innings of work. The club wasn't letting Buchholz pitch deep into games, but his velocity was actually getting stronger in the fifth inning and he pitched better the second time around lineups. Add in how athletic Buchholz was, and it seemed extremely likely that he would continue pitching well late in games when given the chance. A late season promotion to High-A Wilmington also went well, with Buchholz hitting 97 on the radar gun late in the season and striking out 24 in 16 innings. Moved up to Double-A Portland to start this season, Buchholz hasn't disappointed. His 1.70 ERA is good for second in the league, and his 80 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings rank first. He's also walked just 13 batters and allowed Eastern League hitters to compile just a .182 batting average. He's pitched deeper into games, averaging almost six innings per start after rarely appearing in the sixth inning during 2006. In short, he's been flat out dominant. Buchholz's fastball is a plus pitch, sitting from 91-94 most of the time and getting dialed up to 96 or 97 when needed. However, Buchholz prefers to get ahead in the count with his fastball, and then retire batters with his arsenal of quality breaking pitches. His curveball is excellent and can be thrown for strikes or as a chase pitch. Buchholz's slider is also a quality offering, and his two types of changeups serve as a way to keep hitters even more off-balance. Add his great command, clean injury history, and athletic frame to a deep and impressive arsenal, and you have the makings of a future ace. Some people might hesitate to call Buchholz a future ace given that he's 22 and in Double-A, but his unique career path means he shouldn't be discounted much due to age. Given how he's pitched, it won't be long before Buchholz is moved up to Triple-A. If he continues to dominate after the promotion, the big club could very well come calling in the second half. Working against Buchholz is that the team probably won't want him to jump from the 119 innings he threw last year to anywhere near 200. He'll amass near that many innings if called up in August or September, so the club could hold off barring a total breakdown in their big league starters. That means he's a much better bet for 2008, and his combination of talent and major league-readiness will make Buchholz a very popular pick next spring. Those in keeper leagues should consider him a Top 20 talent. Aaron Thompson LHP Marlins The Marlins had an interesting quartet of starters ticketed for High-A Jupiter to start the season. The list included three first rounders from the 2005 draft in Chris Volstad, Sean West, and Thompson, as well as 2006 first round selection Brett Sinkbeil. Each of the above starters had middle of the rotation or better potential if everything worked out, so Jupiter's rotation was one to watch. Unfortunately, West had shoulder surgery, Sinkbeil has battled elbow tendonitis, and Volstad has been inconsistent, meaning Thompson is the only one of the four helping his stock. Selected 22nd overall in the 2005 draft out of a Houston, Texas high school, Thompson was seen as a refined left-hander that would move quickly. His stuff wasn't poor enough to rule out him developing into a No. 2 starter, but settling in as a solid No. 3 or quality No. 4 seemed more likely. Thompson signed quickly and thus was able to make eight starts in the Gulf Coast League and five in the New York-Penn League. Between the two stints he compiled a 3.96 ERA and 58/20 K/BB ratio in 52 1/3 innings of work. Thompson's command wasn't excellent and the opposition was making hard contact when they were able to connect, but it was still a solid debut for the 18-year-old. Assigned to Single-A Greensboro the following season, Thompson put up another solid season. He threw 134 innings in 24 starts, striking out 114 and walking 35 while posting a mediocre 3.63 ERA. Thompson gave up 139 hits, including 12 homers, and it was concerning how the opposition continued to make quality contact. Since he was just 19-years-old, in a park that helped homers, and didn't show a big platoon split, there was every reason to continue trying Thompson as a starter. Moved up to Jupiter this spring, Thompson has continued pitching reasonably well while posting very similar ratios. His 3.55 ERA and 52/19 K/BB ratio in 63 1/3 innings almost mirrors his performance at Greensboro. However, he's still giving up more than a hit per inning, and that can't be completely written off due to luck or poor defense. It's encouraging that Thompson has maintained most of his level of his raw performance while moving up a level. That he's yet to give up a homer is also a plus, but he's in a great park for avoiding the long ball. Despite the similar statistical profile overall, Thompson is actually performing a bit worse than he did last season given the switch in ballparks. It's still been a positive year in that Thompson has remained productive while moving up and continuing to avoid injuries, but it's not been as good as first glance. Thompson's best pitch is a slider that sits 7-10 MPH slower than his fastball. It's his out pitch when he's in a big spot, but Thompson also has several other quality offerings. His sinking fastball sits in the mid-to-high 80s with good control and induces more than its fair share of grounders. Thompson's curveball has more potential than his changeup, but both need work going forward. If he can develop one of them into an average or better offering, Thompson has a future in a big league rotation. If not, his fastball-slider combination would allow him to be an excellent reliever. However, with clean mechanics, a good pitching sense, and a deceptive delivery, the club will give Thompson every opportunity to stay in the rotation. Thompson will likely spend the rest of the season at Jupiter, and then move up to Double-A as a 21-year-old next season. He'll need to continue working on his secondary stuff and throwing more of his strikes on the corners. It's possible the 6'3", 195-pound Thompson will add a little more velocity as he matures, and his makeup might allow him to develop into a No. 2 starter if everything breaks right. Still, it's much more likely that he's a true No. 3. That said, Thompson might resemble something better given he's in the National League and gets to play half his games in a pitcher-friendly park. He's likely to break into the majors at some point during the 2008 season, although a full-time role shouldn't be expected before 2009. Given that Thompson is likely to someday produce at least some value, he's a worthwhile commodity. |
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06-07-07, 04:34 PM
| #185 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Miller to Replace Robertson Yesterday in this space I suggested that the Tigers send Nate Robertson to the bullpen, but instead the struggling left-hander was placed on the disabled list Wednesday with what the team is calling a "tired arm." With Zach Miner also heading to the DL, the Tigers called up Aquilino Lopez and Yorman Bazardo for bullpen reinforcements, but they'll make another move Sunday when Andrew Miller steps into the rotation in place of Robertson. Miller will make at least two starts in place of Robertson, but both the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press suggested Thursday that he could be in the majors to stay this time. The No. 6 overall pick in last June's draft, Miller has a 2.25 ERA, 52-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .242 opponent's batting average in 11 starts this season, including a 0.59 ERA in four starts since a promotion from Single-A to Double-A. A 6-foot-6, 22-year-old southpaw with 34 walks in 93 professional innings, Miller may struggle with command initially. However, he throws extremely hard, has the ability to miss plenty of bats, and induces a ton of ground balls. That's the perfect formula for a pitcher and will help make up for shaky control. With Robertson out and Kenny Rogers still several weeks away from returning, Miller has a chance to beat out Mike Maroth for a spot in the second-half rotation. While prospect hounds salivate over the chance to see Miller, Homer Bailey, and Tim Lincecum take the mound this weekend, here are some other notes from around baseball * Normally it's not big news when someone with a .623 career OPS gets called up from Triple-A by a last-place team, but Joey Gathright is a little different. The fastest man in baseball, Gathright rejoined the Royals Wednesday after batting .328 with a .450 on-base percentage and 21 steals in 50 games at Triple-A. Gathright has always done a ton of running, but appears to have made a breakthrough in his approach at the plate. After coming into the season with a sub par 231-to-132 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 330 minor-league games, Gathright ranked second in the Pacific Coast League with 37 walks while striking out just 23 times. "My emphasis this year was just to get on base as much as I can," Gathright said. "Just be the best leadoff hitter I could be. Getting on base and working on bunting were my main focuses of my offseason." That seems like an obvious revelation for a speedy slap-hitter, but if Gathright's new approach at the plate can stick with him in the majors he has a chance to have huge fantasy value. Even after going 2-for-3 with a double Wednesday, Gathright still sports an ugly .253 batting average and .628 OPS in 724 career plate appearances. However, despite getting on base just 32 percent of the time, he's swiped 49 bags. Pick him up, watch him run, and hope the plate discipline sticks. * As expected, the White Sox placed Joe Crede on the disabled list Wednesday and called up Josh Fields from Triple-A as his replacement. Crede is reportedly seeking a second and third opinion on his injured back after an MRI confirmed that he has two herniated disks and fluid build up. While it should be taken with a grain of salt given his obvious frustration, Crede indicated Wednesday that season-ending surgery is an option. "It's to a point where heat and ice can only do so much," Crede said. "You get the nerve thing, that's the scariest. Any kind of pain shooting down the leg, that's the worst scenario." Fields represents a dropoff defensively, but Crede was hitting just .216 with a .576 OPS. Fields followed up a 19-homer, 25-steal season at Double-A by hitting .283 with 10 homers, eight steals, and an .891 OPS in 56 games at Triple-A before the call-up. He has good value in AL-only leagues. * After suggesting on Monday's "Fantasy Fix" show that Brad Lidge could be close to reclaiming ninth-inning duties in Houston, I received a few strongly worded e-mails from Astros fans who basically called me crazy (among several other things). While my sanity may indeed be in question, it sounds like manager Phil Garner is equally as nuts. Garner said Wednesday that Lidge has "pitched well enough to go back to the closing role now." Of course, Garner also added that he's yet to make the switch and is reluctant to do so because the combination of Lidge setting up Dan Wheeler has worked so well. Since an ugly outing on April 20, Lidge has tossed 23.1 innings with a 0.77 ERA, 34-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .171 opponent's batting average. Wheeler has pitched well over that span too, but the manager speaking publicly about Lidge possibly saving games again is a big boost to his fantasy stock. * Aramis Ramirez left Wednesday's game with a strained left knee and said afterward that "it has been sore for two or three weeks." He's scheduled to undergo an MRI Thursday, with Mark DeRosa set to fill in at third base until he returns. Ryan Theriot and Cesar Izturis also figure to pick up at-bats if Ramirez is out for an extended period of time, but the Cubs won't know Ramirez's official timetable until the tests come back. AL Quick Hits: Roger Clemens (groin) threw batting practice Wednesday and said afterward that he's "locked in and ready to go" for his long-awaited season debut this weekend After a problem-free bullpen session, Bartolo Colon (triceps) is on track to make his scheduled start Friday Joe Mauer (quadriceps) said Wednesday that he "felt pretty good" after playing in the first game of his minor-league rehab assignment and remains on track to return Friday Huston Street (elbow) played catch Wednesday and is expected to throw again Friday With the Orioles heading to Baltimore, Ramon Hernandez stayed behind in Seattle to undergo X-rays after he was struck in the groin by a foul tip Wednesday Derek Jeter is expected to get a routine day off Thursday, with Miguel Cairo starting in his place Andy Pettitte (back) threw a bullpen session Wednesday and indicated afterward that he expects to make his scheduled start Friday With Alan Embree getting the night off, Santiago Casilla recorded four outs to pick up his first big-league save Wednesday. NL Quick Hits: Trevor Hoffman extended his MLB record by picking up his 500th career save Wednesday and hasn't allowed a run since blowing back-to-back leads in late April Barry Bonds (shin) walked as a pinch-hitter Wednesday, suggesting that he'll avoid the disabled list John Smoltz (shoulder, finger) was sore Wednesday and said that he'll "wait until the last minute" to decide if he'll make his scheduled start Sunday The Mets' banged-up outfield took another hit Wednesday, as Endy Chavez went down with a hamstring injury Meanwhile, it sounds like Shawn Green (foot) will beat Moises Alou (knee) back from the DL, perhaps by Sunday Greg Maddux improved to 5-3 with a 3.82 ERA with a victory Wednesday and has thrown more than 85 pitches in just three of his dozen starts Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Wednesday that Miguel Cabrera (hamstring) "should be ready" to return Friday With six shutout innings Wednesday, Orlando Hernandez lowered his ERA to an improbable 1.94 Dodgers prospect Scott Elbert will miss the remainder of this season following shoulder surgery. |
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06-07-07, 04:36 PM
| #186 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Bullpen Report: Week 10 The closing situation to watch right now is in Houston, where incumbent Dan Wheeler has struggled lately. The right-hander gave up three runs in back-to-back outings and took the loss in his second appearance. He picked up a save with a scoreless inning in his one outing since then, but even brief struggles from Wheeler are worth monitoring. That's because there are those within the Astros' organization who still want former stopper Brad Lidge inserted back into the closer's role. Some think it would be better for the team to let Lidge reestablish himself as the club's closer for the future, while others think he should be given a chance to help his trade value. Either way, Lidge looks ready for the promotion. The right-hander was demoted from the closer's role in April, but he's recorded a 25/4 K/BB ratio and has given up just two earned runs in his last 18 1/3 innings of work. The club won't demote Wheeler without reason, so they'll need to find an opening when he struggles for more than an outing or two. Another poor performance this coming week could do the trick, meaning Lidge is worth stashing away in all but the shallowest of leagues. All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, Co-Closer or DL. Arizona Diamondbacks Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure) Key setup men: Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten, Brandon Medders Valverde pitched just once this week, striking out two in a scoreless inning of work to pick up a save. I will renew my recommendation to start shopping the right-hander, as he's still a risk for injury and consistency issues, as well as a possible trade candidate. Lyon and Pena, especially, haven't been as good of late, but Pena is more likely to take over as closer should Valverde be dealt. Atlanta Braves Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Chad Paronto, Tyler Yates Wickman got into three games this week, yielding a run in a non-save situation and then pitching a pair of scoreless innings to record two saves. Soriano has been utterly dominant in front of him, yielding just six walks and 10 hits in 26 innings of work. Baltimore Orioles Closer: Chris Ray (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Williamson, Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, Jamie Walker It was a rough week for Ray, who gave up a walk-off, two-run homer to Vladimir Guerrero on Sunday before yielding a run in a non-save situation on Wednesday. The right-hander's strikeout rate is up and his walk rate down, but his ERA has somehow climbed almost a run and a half from last year's mark. That trend isn't likely to continue. Since his ERA isn't pretty and some of Ray's failures this year have been pretty high profile, he's worth smelling around to see if you can get him on the cheap. Williamson has looked good while healthy, striking out 11 and giving up a pair of earned runs in 10 innings of work. He'd be the closer should Ray be unavailable. Williamson himself is no stranger to the disabled list and you can just about stick a fork in Baez, so if Ray goes down it's quite possible that minor league closer James Hoey would get a shot. The right-hander possesses dominant stuff and has 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk this season. Boston Red Sox Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In) Key setup men: Hideki Okajima, Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin (DL) Papelbon looked human this week, giving up a homer to Alex Rodriguez in the top of the ninth in a tie game on Sunday. His 2.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP aren't as good as last year, but he's still a tier 1 closer. Meanwhile, Okajima continues to look like one of the best setup men in baseball, recording a 1.27 ERA and having already thrown 28 1/3 innings. Maybe maintaining an ERA under 2.00 is a stretch, but it'd be surprising if he posted anything higher than a 3.00 the rest of the season. He's got the stuff, command, and deception to remain effective. Chicago Cubs Closer: Ryan Dempster (Shaky) Key setup men: Angel Guzman (DL), Bob Howry, Mike Wuertz, Scott Eyre, Carlos Marmol The Cubs placed Guzman on the disabled list this week, citing a strained right elbow. It should come as no surprise that Guzman, who has an extensive injury history, couldn't handle a mid-season switch to the bullpen that included work early and often. Maybe it's nothing major and he'll be back trying to take Dempster's job in no time, or maybe he'll miss the rest of the season. Either way, he remains an injury risk going forward. The club obviously thinks highly of the right-hander and will give him more chances at taking over the closing duties if that's where they'd like to see him go, but his value takes a hit for now. In the meantime, Dempster hasn't given up a run since his job was threatened and he still looks like by far the best bet to close in Chicago. It's tough to rule anything out with the Cubs, but he should remain the closer until Guzman is both healthy and productive. Should Dempster himself go down, Howry has rebounded from some poor performances recently and would be next in line. Marmol has gotten some lip service as a potential closer, but I'd guess he's behind at least Howry and probably Wuertz still. Chicago White Sox Closer: Bobby Jenks (Locked In) Key setup men: Matt Thornton, Nick Masset, Dewon Day Jenks continues to hold down the ninth inning duties with a 2.49 ERA, but overall the club's bullpen has posted a 9.11 ERA during the last month. That's not a typo, just a funny yet startling coincidence. Included in that decline was David Aardsma falling apart after a dominant six weeks, Mike MacDougal struggling to the point where his ERA reached over 7.00, and Andrew Sisco completely forgetting where the strike zone was. All three were demoted this past week, and one of the club's strengths has quickly turned into a weakness. Outside of Matt Thornton, the club doesn't have a single reliable reliever in front of Jenks right now. That makes it an easy decision to replace Jenks should he go down, but it will hurt the club as it tries to transition leads from starter to closer. Perhaps one or more of the demoted relievers will find their groove again and come back strong, but Jenks' value takes a hit in the meantime. In addition to likely seeing less save opportunities as the team is hurt by the recent events, Jenks is also much more likely to be working with smaller leads or entering tie games now. I wouldn't recommend selling low on him, but 95 cents on the dollar might be a good enough offer to make a change. Cincinnati Reds Closer: David Weathers (Secure) Key setup men: Mike Stanton, Jon Coutlangus, Jared Burton, Eddie Guardado (DL) Even though he was charged with just one run this week, Weathers wasn't his most effective. His 1 1/3 scoreless innings for a save in his first appearance was nice, but his second outing was a nightmare. Weathers entered with the bases loaded and nobody out in the eighth inning of a four-run game against the Rockies in Coors Field on Sunday. He then proceeds to give up a triple to Kaz Matsui, scoring all three inherited runners and bringing the game within a run. Three batters later and Brad Hapwe singled to score the tying run, giving Weathers a blown save despite just the one run to his credit. Weathers gave up six runs in an outing the week before, so he's not on the firmest of grounds right now. Still, it'll take quite a few more poor outings before the club considers any alternatives and they don't currently have anyone that fits the profile unless they want to reevaluate Todd Coffey yet again. Maybe a healthy and effective Guardado could be an alternative come August, but as I've stated before, I'm betting against it. Cleveland Indians Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Betancourt, Tom Mastny, Roberto Hernandez Borowski pitched just once this week, giving up two runs in a game that was already out of hand. Betancourt has continued to look excellent in a setup role and is next in line. Mastny has given up six runs over his last two outings, but he seems likely to rebound and is worth holding onto in AL-only formats. Colorado Rockies Closer: Brian Fuentes (Locked In) Key setup men: Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins, Jorge Julio Fuentes has been dominant for the Rockies thus far, giving up just one earned run since the start of May. The better he pitches, the more likely he is to be dealt this summer, so Fuentes owners are faced with quite the catch-22 right now. If you are a Fuentes owner in a moderately deep league, make sure to grab Corpas. Detroit Tigers Closer: Todd Jones (Secure) Key setup men: Joel Zumaya (DL), Fernando Rodney, Wilfredo Ledezma What an ugly couple of weeks Todd Jones has had, and it couldn't have come at a worse time with Zumaya out and Rodney just returning from the disabled list on Tuesday. Jones had given up five runs over his last three appearances entering Friday's game with the Indians. In that game, Jones blew a four-run lead in the ninth by surrendering five earned runs. He gave up a homer, two walks, three singles, and a double in the inning, so his game was clearly well off. Jones hasn't appeared in a game since that day. It's possible he was being bothered by some sort of injury and the club is trying to have him avoid the disabled list, but the Tigers haven't found a save opportunity since and that could easily be the cause as well. Although Rodney hasn't been as his best this year, he remains next up should Jones have to go on the disabled list. Florida Marlins Closer: Kevin Gregg (Shaky) Key setup men: Armando Benitez, Henry Owens (DL), Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom The Marlins are the early front-runner for "Most frustrating bullpen of the year" award. The club started with Jorge Julio, and then went to Owens before he got hurt. Tankersley was the big prospect with lots of potential and Lindstrom had the fastball for the role, but the veteran Gregg was having the best year and took over. Owens was initially supposed to get the job back when he returned, but Gregg was doing such an excellent job that he took the duties for the short-term. Then this past week the Marlins acquired Benitez, giving Gregg a very tenuous hold on the closing duties. Manager Fredi Gonzalez is saying that Gregg will continue to act as closer, but it makes more sense for Benitez to assume the role eventually. Since he'll be a constant threat to Gregg, the incumbent loses some value. It'd be surprising if Benitez didn't get a chance to close again at some point, so he's worth keeping on your roster. Houston Astros Closer: Dan Wheeler (Shaky) Key setup men: Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Dave Borkowski I discussed Wheeler versus Lidge in the introduction, but I'll add to it here. Wheeler still has excellent peripherals and he's very capable of holding onto the job and doing an adequate job for the rest of the year. Lidge is capable of being a top 5 closer is he's fully returned to pre-2006 form, so the way to approach this situation is to grab both players if at all possible. If it's not possible, try selling whichever player you have to the owner with the other option. He's likely to give up more than most owners to secure a quality closer. Kansas City Royals Closer: Octavio Dotel (Secure) Key setup men: Joakim Soria (DL), Joel Peralta, David Riske Dotel pitched just once this week, but he recorded his first save in over two years during the outing. He'll remain the closer barring injury and is still likely to be dealt in July. Soria could come off the disabled list today, and he's worth keeping active in AL-only formats. He's also an option to stash away in shallower leagues given Dotel's injury risk and possibility of a trade. Los Angeles Angels Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In) Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier (DL), Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley Another year, another dominant season from Rodriguez. The right-hander has a 2.10 ERA to go with 35 strikeouts and 19 saves in 25 2/3 innings of work. To think that's not even his career-best rate in any category is truly amazing. Speier's recovery from an infection isn't going well and he had to head back to extended spring training to build up some stamina. He'll be useful in AL-only leagues when he returns, but that's still a few weeks away. Los Angeles Dodgers Closer: Takashi Saito (Locked In) Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Yhency Brazoban (DL), Chin-Hui Tsao (DL) Saito was bothered by a sore shoulder two weeks ago, and then injured his hamstring against the Pirates on Sunday. He'll be out just another day or two, with Broxton having taken over as closer in the meantime. The young flamethrower has picked up one save in Saito's absence thus far and is capable of doing an excellent job in the role. That Saito has had a few minor injuries means Broxton is a better property going forward, and it'd be best to pair the two in most leagues. Milwaukee Brewers Closer: Francisco Cordero (Locked In) Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva It's not going to hold up, but Cordero might be having one of the best two month stretches ever for a reliever. The right-hander is 22-for-22 in save opportunities. He's given up one run in 24 2/3 innings, good for a 0.36 ERA. He's struck out 35 batters while showing good command. And lastly, he's given up all of seven hits and eight walks, yielding a 0.61 ERA. That's absurdly dominant numbers, and it makes him an obvious sell-high option right now. I'd recommend targeting an under performing closer (Chris Ray, Mariano Rivera) for an upgrade at another position. Turnbow hasn't been as dominant as he was in April of late, but he has been better after a rough middle of the month. He's still probably next in line since he profiles better as a closer than any of the club's other options. If the club looks more at production, Wise would be the next choice. Minnesota Twins Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In) Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier The Twins' bullpen is one of the more boring ones around. Nathan is one of the handful of best closers in the game, fantasy or otherwise. Rincon is a top-notch setup man who would take over if Nathan went down. Neshek dominates right-handers as well as anyone in the game, and Guerrier is about as good as fourth options get. Of course, in addition to being so consistent that they're boring, it's a great group of players to own. Expect more of the same. New York Mets Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In) Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano Smith has been one of the bigger relief surprises this summer. The right-hander was a third round pick out of Wright State last summer, and was thought to advance quickly. However, nobody expected Smith to reach the majors out of camp in his first full professional season. That makes his current 1.40 ERA and 28/9 K/BB ratio even more impressive, and that he's been able to adapt so quickly is a positive for the future. While he may not ever be preferred as a closer since lefties can get to him, Smith is still going to be a quality setup man for some time. New York Yankees Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In) Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Brian Bruney Rivera has been excellent since his early season struggles, yielding just one run his last 9 2/3 innings of work. His K/BB ratio is 20/4 on the season and there's little reason to expect anything short of excellent results going forward. That he has only six saves is a bigger concern, but the Yankees are bound to break out of their funk any day now. Expect 20+ saves and an ERA under 3.00 from here on out. Surprisingly, Rivera is still a good buy-low candidate due to his all around pedestrian numbers. Oakland Athletics Closer: Huston Street (Injured), Justin Duchscherer (Injured), Alan Embree (Filling-in) Key setup men: Kiko Calero, Santiago Casilla Street still hasn't been able to play catch of this writing, but his strained ulnar nerve is supposedly healing well and all that's left to do is strengthen the muscle. If that's true, Street should be back within a week or so. If he experiences a setback, surgery is still possible. However, it seems much more likely, given all the reports, that he'll be back closing very soon. Duchscherer is still battling his hip condition and was told not to throw for the first two weeks of June. A return late this month is possible, but July is a more realistic expectation. With both of the club's two best options unavailable, Embree has done a fine job while filling in, picking up five saves while yielding just two runs in nine innings of work. He'll remain the closer until one of Street or Duchscherer is ready. Philadelphia Phillies Closer: Tom Gordon (Injured), Brett Myers (Injured), Antonio Alfonseca (Filling-in) Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary The Phillies were supposed to use a committee approach with Myers and Gordon out, but Alfonseca has quickly taken the reigns as the club's closer. The right-hander hasn't given up a run in six outings since Myers went down, picking up two saves and a win in the process. I don't expect he'll continue to be so successful, but he has to be used right now. Myers is at least two weeks away and Gordon at least three, with both players seemingly good candidates for a setback or two. Myers will remain the closer when both are healthy, but the whole situation is probably going to be volatile for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh Pirates Closer: Matt Capps (Secure) Key setup men: Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss, Capps seemed like a good bet to take over for Torres at some point, and I recommended holding on to him even after Torres picked it up after a slow start. However, Torres being removed from the closer's role after just one blown save and a month that wasn't particularly bad was surprising. It's likely that the club preferred him in a setup role all along, and just wanted to make sure Capps was ready. Now, Capps can gain experience in the role for the future and Torres can do what he does best, log a ton of innings as a quality setup man. Capps has a 2.87 ERA and 24/6 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 innings, so he certainly earned the promotion. He's not likely to continue posting an ERA under 3.00, but one in the lower threes is rather possible. He'll do an adequate job as closer, likely settling in as average or a bit above. Since the club doesn't have any other great options going forward, he has a ton of value in keeper leagues right now. It wouldn't be surprising to see him closing until he hits free agency in 2012. In the short-term, Capps is having a four-game suspension appealed on Friday. He'll likely get three games, meaning Torres is a fine play over the weekend. San Diego Padres Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell, Kevin Cameron Hoffman picked up career save No. 499 on Tuesday, and he'll become the first player ever to record 500 saves in the near future. It was big news when Hoffman blew saves in back-to-back outings for the first time in over a decade in late April, but those were the only two outings in which he's given up a run all year. The right-hander turns 40 this winter, but with the way he's throwing, I'd like to see what he could with that changeup at age 50. Meredith hasn't been awful of late, but he hasn't fully rebounded yet either. He can't be used right now. The rest of the setup men listed all have ERAs near or under 2.00 right now. Linebrink has the most value in the short-term, but Cameron could be a closer one day. Note: Hoffman picked up No. 500 after this column was completed. San Francisco Giants Closer: Brad Hennessey (Secure) Key setup men: Randy Messenger, Kevin Correia, Vinnie Chulk With Benitez off to the Marlins, Hennessey takes over as the Giants' closer. The right-hander has done a fine job this year, showing good command and avoiding hard hit balls en route to a 2.82 ERA. However, he's not likely to continue pitching near that well, and he doesn't profile as a long-term closer. The club has zero good options currently in the majors besides Hennessey, so it wouldn't he shocking if he kept the role for the rest of the year. However, a few struggles or the team wanting to evaluate for the future could easily boot Hennessey from the role. He's fine for now, but he'll likely be on thin ice come August. Seattle Mariners Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In) Key setup men: Brandon Morrow, Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo It's been business as usual for Putz so far this year, picking up 15 saves to go with excellent ratios. He's quickly been able to prove that last year's breakout was no fluke, and his value in keeper leagues is very much on the rise. Morrow still has command problems, but opposing batters simply can't find a way to make good contact against the right-hander. He remains a quality option in AL-only leagues even if he weren't backing up a closer. St. Louis Cardinals Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In) Key setup men: Ryan Franklin, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer Isringhausen still isn't slowing down, recording a 1.57 ERA and 0.87 WHIP thus far. That he's been pain and injury free thus far boosts him up closer rankings a little. However, holding on to Franklin or Johnson just in case isn't a bad idea if you have a deep bench. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Closer: Al Reyes (Secure) Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Gary Glover, Shawn Camp, Chad Orvella Reyes appeared in three games this week, picking up a save and throwing three scoreless innings of work. Glover is working on a 4 1/3 inning scoreless streak, which is about the nicest thing I can write about any of the club's setup men. Despite some success in Triple-A, Orvella has looked totally lost in the majors once again. He can almost be written off for this year after this latest bout of ugly outings. Stokes still hasn't come close to putting everything together, but the club likes him and he's probably still next in line at the moment. If the club does indeed trade Reyes at the trading deadline, it's possible one of the club's intriguing minor leaguers will get the call. Texas Rangers Closer: Eric Gagne (Secure) Key setup men: Akinori Otsuka, Frank Francisco, Wes Littleton It seems Gagne hasn't had a problem adjusting to life without his previous fastball velocity. The right-hander is using his excellent changeup and slow curve to keep the opposition off balance, and it's worked to the tune of a 0.69 ERA in 13 innings thus far. Gagne struggled with his command as he was understandable rusty out of the gate, but it's been better of late. Despite the success, Gagne remains an injury risk and could also be traded this summer. Otsuka would step in under either scenario, making him an astute pickup while his value is at its lowest. Toronto Blue Jays Closer: Jeremy Accardo (Secure) Key setup men: Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs Outside of one outing in which he gave up three runs and blew a save, Accardo has done a fine job as the Blue Jays' closer. He's thrown nine scoreless innings outside of that one outing since the promotion, picking up seven saves along the way. He has plenty of job security at the moment, so don't hesitate to acquire the right-hander if the price is right. Janssen has been excellent in a setup role, and the club is more likely to turn to him than try Frasor again if Accardo can't go. Washington Nationals Closer: Chad Cordero (Secure) Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Jesus Colome Rauch has struggled lately, giving up seven runs over four outings two weeks ago and then being charged with three runs while retiring just one batter on Wednesday. The club might still look to him if Cordero were dealt, but Colome also could enter the mix. He's always had closing type stuff despite a modest strikeout rate, and his 2.37 ERA certainly helps his case. His control is still an issue and could become a major problem again at any time, but he is intriguing. |
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06-09-07, 09:28 AM
| #187 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Head of the class Fantasy summer school is in session. Today's lesson is in perspective drawing that is, putting two months' worth of statistics in perspective and drawing some conclusions. (All dollar values are for AL- or NL-only, 5x5 leagues.) VALEDICTORIANS Alex Rodriguez's blazing start made every other player look like a Little Leaguer. On April stats alone, he was on pace to surpass 73 homers and $73 in fantasy value. Though A-Rod has cooled off somewhat from that sizzling pace, his $44 value still tops all American League hitters. However, he's been passed in the race for fantasy MVP honors. Jose Reyes has leveraged his dominance in stolen bases to top the charts at a whopping $49. And he's yet to tap into the home run power he showed last season. On the mound, Jake Peavy ($36) is setting the standard, while Dan Haren ($34) has been a model of consistency with quality starts in 11 of his 12 outings. But enough about these high achievers. Let's take a position-by-position look at the rest of the class. CATCHER Dean's list: Russell Martin ($32), Jorge Posada ($25). Detention: Mike Piazza ($5), Brian McCann ($12). Martin was poised for a breakthrough season, but not to this degree. His eight stolen bases give him a huge advantage over everyone else. Posada has been outstanding, but most of his value is tied to a lofty .357 average that he isn't likely to maintain. Injuries have kept Piazza, McCann and Joe Mauer ($13) from fulfilling their high expectations. FIRST BASE Dean's list: Prince Fielder ($39), Kevin Youkilis ($31). Detention: Richie Sexson ($13), Adam LaRoche ($11). Fielder finished May with a flourish, hitting homers in four consecutive games to tie A-Rod for the major league lead. Youkilis finished with a 22-game hitting streak. Sexson recovered from a slow start last year, but his owners may not be able to wait any longer this time. SECOND BASE Dean's list: Kelly Johnson ($30), B.J. Upton ($32). Detention: Robinson Cano ($12), Freddy Sanchez ($9). Thanks to the emergence of Johnson, Upton and others, depth is so plentiful here that Aaron Hill's excellent season ($24) hardly warrants a mention. Cano has been symbolic of the New York Yankees' struggles. Sanchez missed the start of the season with a knee injury but hasn't produced like a reigning batting champ. SHORTSTOP Dean's list: J.J. Hardy ($37), Jhonny Peralta ($26). Detention: Michael Young ($20), Bill Hall ($16). What is it about Milwaukee Brewers shortstops and home runs? Hardy takes over and goes crazy, while Hall moves from short to the outfield and loses his power. Peralta is literally seeing the ball better after a terrible 2006 spurred him to have laser eye surgery. Young hasn't been horrible but should be driving in more runs from the No. 3 spot. THIRD BASE Dean's list: Mike Lowell ($30), Mark Reynolds ($13). Detention: Garrett Atkins ($9), Joe Crede ($7), Chone Figgins ($4). What was once touted as having the deepest talent pool is looking more like a desert. Atkins can't seem to make solid contact anymore, and a balky back is threatening to make Crede's breakout season last year look like a fluke. Reynolds is going to make it difficult for Chad Tracy to reclaim his starting job once he returns from the disabled list. OUTFIELD Dean's list: Shane Victorino ($31), Gary Matthews Jr. ($29), Aaron Rowand ($28), Sammy Sosa ($21), Reggie Willits ($19), Josh Hamilton ($18), Hunter Pence ($16). Detention: Alfonso Soriano ($22), Andruw Jones ($21), Vernon Wells ($20), Bobby Abreu ($18), J.D. Drew ($10). Victorino doesn't have much power, but he's stealing bases (16), scoring runs (34) and playing every day. Sosa and Hamilton are strong comeback award candidates. Matthews' production (.284, 7 HRs, 33 RBI, 9 SB) is justifying his big offseason contract. Wells and Drew maybe not as much. Soriano, Jones and Abreu are still waiting for their power strokes to return. STARTING PITCHER Dean's list: Oliver Perez ($25), James Shields ($25), Chad Gaudin ($21), John Maine ($20), Jason Marquis ($17), Brad Penny ($24), Josh Beckett ($32). Detention: Scott Kazmir ($13), Carlos Zambrano ($10), Matt Cain ($10), Bronson Arroyo ($3). Good decisions here can pay off big time as Perez, Shields and Maine owners will attest. Those guys were just good enough to be included as back-of-the-rotation starters from the beginning of the season, giving fantasy owners the full benefit of each start. Kazmir and Zambrano have decent strikeout totals, but it hasn't translated into dominance in other categories. Cain has been a victim of poor run support and blown saves. He should bounce back. Arroyo, however, just can't seem to get anyone out. RELIEF PITCHER Dean's list: Al Reyes ($25), Jason Isringhausen ($20). Detention: Mariano Rivera ($6), Chad Cordero ($7), Jorge Julio (-$8). Reyes was an afterthought for saves entering the season but has turned into the biggest bullpen bargain. Rivera's meager numbers (five saves, 5.03 ERA) are more a reflection of the Yankees' all-or-nothing tendencies than a deterioration of his skills. Any fantasy owner who's speculated on Julio getting saves flunks this course immediately. |
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06-09-07, 09:29 AM
| #188 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 One Out From History I feel robbed. Thanks to Shannon Stewart, we've all been denied something truly historic: The first ever blog entry about the no-hitter a blogger threw the day before. Sure, Curt Schilling also lost out on what would have been the first no-hitter of his 20-year career and, at 40 years old, probably won't have another great chance for one before he retires. Still, no-hitters happen every season. When's the last time someone tossed a no-no and then blogged about it? Only Julio Lugo's fifth-inning error kept Schilling from having a perfect game when Stewart stepped to the plate with two outs in the ninth inning Thursday afternoon. Actually, if you want to be technical about itand Red Sox fans seem to favor that approach in their complaintswithout Lugo's error Stewart never would have even come to the plate for a fourth time. Whatever the case, Schilling tossed him a first-pitch fastball and Stewart slapped a clean single into right field. The crowd in Oakland actually seemed disappointed despite their team suddenly having the tying run on base in a 1-0 game. Schilling quickly retired Mark Ellis on a pop up to preserve the win and his first shutout since 2003. Since struggling against the Royals in the season's first week, Schilling is 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 61-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a dozen starts. He remains homer prone, but Boston's offense will keep the victories coming even if his ERA climbs a bit. Prior to Thursday, the Red Sox had scored an average of 5.8 runs in Schilling's starts, including five games with six-plus runs and two with double-digit totals. David Ortiz's first-inning solo homer off Joe Blanton provided all the run support Thursday, with Blanton ending up as the tough-luck loser. The A's have scored an average of just 4.2 runs in Blanton's starts, which is why he's 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA while Schilling is 6-2 with a 3.49 ERA. While Schilling settles for writing one of those boring, run-of-the-mill "I threw a one-hitter yesterday" blog entries that have become so clichι of late, here are some other notes from around baseball * Two days after manager Phil Garner talked publicly about Brad Lidge potentially moving back into the closer role, current closer Dan Wheeler coughed up a two-run lead Thursday against the Rockies. The blown save was likely magnified by Lidge throwing a scoreless eighth inning to set Wheeler up. Lidge has now allowed an earned run in just one of his last 17 outings (and two of the past 23), giving him a 0.74 ERA and 35-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio since mid-April. Meanwhile, Wheeler has given up nine runs in his last four appearances, watching his ERA jump from 3.04 to 5.60 in one week. Given Garner's comments and Lidge's dominance since a horrible start to the season, it seems obvious that a change is forthcoming. If a move is made, Wheeler will retain fantasy value as a solid setup man who could easily be thrown back into the closer role at some point. Jump back on the Lidge bandwagon now, before it becomes official. * NBCSPORTS.COM VIDEO: The Gleeman Report Mailbag Time * Hong-Chih Kuo turned in six solid innings Thursday against the Padres and was in line for his first victory of the season when the Dodgers took a 5-1 lead into the ninth inning. Unfortunately, Jonathan Broxton and the defense behind him imploded, as the Padres scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to win 6-5. Filling in for injured closer Takashi Saito, Broxton came into the game despite no save being possible thanks to the four-run lead. He proceeded to give up five runs on five hits and two walks while recording just one out, with the Padres going single, error, single, single, double, walk, single, strikeout, walk. The last walk came with the bases loaded and the score tied at five apiece, with Broxton walking Russell Branyan to force Adrian Gonzalez in from third base as the game-winning run. As bad as Broxton's performance wasand it was plenty uglythe defense also let him down in a big way. Nomar Garciaparra made two very clear misplays at first base, although only one was officially ruled an "error." The bad news is that Broxton's ERA has ballooned from 1.08 to 4.15 in the span of six appearances, but the good news is that Saito is expected to be available Friday. He reportedly felt good while going through a pregame workout Thursday and should be put back into all fantasy lineups immediately. Meanwhile, Kuo is worth grabbing in NL-only leagues. * A.J. Burnett is pitching very well since a rocky first month, posting a 3.10 ERA, 70-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .195 opponent's batting average in seven starts since getting knocked around on May 1. However, his high pitch counts are starting to become a concern. Burnett threw a season-high 130 pitches while totaling 13 strikeouts in a no-decision Thursday and has tossed 118, 103, 103, 125, 117, and 130 pitches over his last half-dozen outings. We've been down this road with Burnett before. In fact, he was working under the same pitching coach, Brad Arnsberg, when he blew out his arm after racking up a huge workload in Florida years ago. Overworking Burnett back then was part of the reason why Arnsberg was fired along with manager Jeff Torborg and given Burnett's lack of perfect health since then, it's disturbing to see that apparently no lessons have been learned. * NBCSPORTS.COM VIDEO: Fantasy Fix Is Hamilton Something Special? AL Quick Hits: Jermaine Dye sat out Thursday's game after having his sore right knee drained of fluid and shot up with cortisone Joe Mauer (quadriceps) is expected to play Friday and Saturday before getting Sunday off X-rays on Ramon Hernandez's injured groin came back negative Thursday, making him day-to-day After going 0-for-5 Thursday to drop his batting average to .239, Sammy Sosa is 7-for-44 (.159) with a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio since his last homer on May 22 Fausto Carmona held the Royals to one run over seven innings Thursday, winning his seventh straight decision Jim Thome is expected to play first base at least twice during interleague play, with Paul Konerko moving to the bench Joakim Soria (shoulder) came off the disabled list Thursday, but will now serve as Octavio Dotel's setup man Curtis Granderson smacked his MLB-leading 12th triple Thursday and 10 of them have amazingly come away from spacious Comerica Park Hyped as a great pickup in this space earlier in the week, Joey Gathright has gone 5-for-7 with two steals in two games since being called back up. NL Quick Hits: Aramis Ramirez (knee) reportedly may be able to avoid the disabled list, but he's unlikely to play again until at least Monday After going 4-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs Thursday, Edwin Encarnacion is 25-for-62 (.403) with three homers and 12 RBIs in 16 games since returning from Triple-A An MRI on Endy Chavez's injured hamstring showed no tear, but he's still expected to miss at least a month After playing Thursday at Triple-A, Chad Tracy (ribs) could return over the weekend and end Mark Reynolds' days as a starter Freddy Sanchez homered Thursday for the first time since August 23 of last season, a span of over 300 at-bats Angel Guzman (elbow) has been shut down for at least two weeks, but it looks like he'll be able to avoid season-ending Tommy John surgery Rich Hill won Thursday for the first time since May 5, striking out a season-high 11 batters in the process Felipe Lopez was yanked from Thursday's game for not running hard on a ground ball. |
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06-09-07, 09:29 AM
| #189 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Domincan Pie Before we jump into today's waiver pickup candidates, let's talk trades a little bit. Specifically, trade vetoes. A lot of folks email me telling me about a veto situation or asking me whether they think a certain trade should be allowed to pass. I have a very "hands off" philosophy on this. Unless there is some reason to label it corruption or collusion, the deal stands. When I make trades, I rarely consider them "even." I think I'm getting at least a slight advantage, or I wouldn't make the trade. Real GMs do it this way too. Stupidity should not be vetoed. Just get the stupid people out of your league the following year. Everyone had the same opportunity to hit up the dumb guy with a lopsided offer. Don't veto it out of spite or because it will make things harder for your team. That's my two cents. American League Josh Fields, 3B, CHA You may recall that Joe Crede opted not to have back surgery this offseason. That looks like a bad decision, as he's probably been playing hurt for some time. Fields will start regularly at third base in his absence, which could conceivably last all season. Fields, a former quarterback, should have 25 HR power one day. He had a slow start at Triple A this year but turned it on in May with a .972 OPS. Young hitters often need some adjustment time, but Fields should be a 20 HR, 10 steal guy for the Sox in '08. AL: $5, Mixed: No. Andrew Miller, SP, DET Miller will start Sunday in place of Nate Robertson, who's got a "tired arm." Miller is a big southpaw with a mid-90s heater and deadly slider. I was lukewarm on his prospects for this season after his showing in A ball, but his work at Double A is changing my mind. He's maintained his ridiculous groundball rate while showing excellent, improved command. He'll have a tough assignment against the Mets, but I'd give him a go in AL-only anyway. It seems like the stats have caught up to the talent. I could see Miller replacing Mike Maroth in the rotation if his next couple of starts resemble his first against the Cardinals. AL: $9, Mixed: No. Fernando Rodney, RP, DET Rodney has returned from biceps tendinitis to slide into the setup role behind Todd Jones. While Rodney hasn't quite been himself this year, he still may be a better option than Jones in the ninth. Might be time to make a pre-emptive pickup of Rodney if you need saves. The Tigers used Jones in a 10-0 game on Wednesday. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Joey Gathright, OF, KCA Insert requisite car-jumping reference here. Now that we have that out of the way, let's discuss Gathright's fantasy strengths. He's a major burner who walked in more than 16% of his plate appearances at Triple A this year. His solid contact rate supports a .300 average, with his speed adding a boost there. He could be a 50 steal player given a full season of at-bats. A regular role could come via an Emil Brown trade, release, or benching. AL: $10, Mixed: $1. Brian Bannister, SP, KCA Through eight starts, Bannister has been excellent. No more worries about whether he'll stick in the rotation. I'd rather not rain on the parade, but I have to point out that a most of what he's doing can't last. He's not going to continue to allow fewer than a hit per inning. His flyballs will become home runs at twice the current rate. And his strikeout rate is already dangerously low. Bannister has shown excellent control, but that's the only real skill we've seen. An ERA under 5 from here on out would be a big win for him and the Royals, in my opinion. AL: $4, Mixed: No. Lenny DiNardo, SP, OAK The groundballing southpaw has nice stats through 31 innings this year, and he beat the Red Sox on Tuesday. But groundballs or not, a 1.25 K/BB ratio says stay away in any format. AL: $1, Mixed: No. Andy Sonnanstine, SP, TBA Sonnanstine lives off a plus changeup he learned from Jamie Shields, per Baseball America. He'll be an innings eater with fine control, with some similarities to Tomo Ohka or Dave Bush. Despite a fine minor league performance this year, I can see him getting knocked around as a rookie. I would pass unless in a deep AL-only league. AL: $2, Mixed: No. J.P. Howell, SP, TBA Howell is the lefty the Rays acquired for Joey Gathright last year. He isn't known for his heater, but does throw four pitches including a plus curve. He's at least got his fastball into the upper-80s again after an extensive offseason conditioning program. I like him a bit more than Sonnanstine. Baseball Prospectus sees a lot of Shawn Estes in Howell, not a terrible thing. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Victor Diaz, OF, TEX Diaz is hitting for a ton of power for the Rangers - eight home runs in 68 at-bats. He still hasn't drawn a walk, but that's his game. I don't see him maintaining a decent batting average, but he could stick as the regular right fielder and knock around 25 home runs over a full season. AL: $12, Mixed: $1. Matt Stairs, 1B/OF, TOR Stairs should get a lot of playing time at first base for the Blue Jays while Lyle Overbay is out. For some cheap AL-only pop when the opposing pitcher is right-handed, you could do worse than Stairs. AL: $4, Mixed: No. National League Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL Salty is back on the fast track after a lost 2006. Brian McCann's ankle and finger injuries should allow Saltalamacchia some starts behind the plate, and otherwise he'll split time at first with Scott Thorman. It's time to start thinking about Saltalamacchia as your second catcher right now and a long-term option in a keeper league. No one knows whether he'll stay behind the plate or with Atlanta, but he looks like a solid 20 HR guy with catcher eligibility in 2008. NL: $5, Mixed: No. Yunel Escobar, 3B, ATL The 24-year-old Cuban defector can play any infield position and possesses a fine line drive swing. He might end up a utility man for the Braves, but will play third base regularly while Chipper is out. He's off to a fine start and is even batting second. Worth a buck in NL-only while playing every day. NL: $1, Mixed: No. Felix Pie, OF, CHN Pie is here to stay. I see him as a future star in the mold of Grady Sizemore or Carlos Beltran. It would not surprise me to see him play at a 20/20 pace this year and really break out in '08. Full disclosure, I am a Cubs fan. NL: $13, Mixed: $3. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN Bailey's much-anticipated big league debut is today against the Tribe. The 21 year-old has a tall order facing the best righty-hitting team in the game. He's got ace stuff, and has upped his strikeout rate considerably since April. I think Yovani Gallardo has a little more polish, and I'd prefer the Brewer phenom in a mixed league this year. But Bailey's going to be owned in most leagues anyway. It's a fun gamble, though I'd bet against shallow mixed league value. NL: $6, Mixed: No. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL Atkins may be showing some signs of life, going 7 for 16 with four extra-base hits over the last seven days. Another sign he might be back is that his contact rate is back in the high 80s recently. He's still hitting flyballs, so the home runs should come. It may be too late to buy low, but you can try. I see him settling in as a .300-20-90 type guy for several years despite the hiccup in '07. NL: $23, Mixed: $10. Brad Lidge, RP, HOU Before Thursday night's Dan Wheeler blowup, Phil Garner admitted that Lidge has pitched well enough to close again. My guess is that the next chance goes to Lidge. I could be wrong, but I don't buy the argument that he doesn't have the mental fortitude to close anymore. NL: $18, Mixed: $10. Tony Abreu, 3B, LAN Abreu is a top prospect, and would be more well-known in a shallow farm system. The switch-hitter can play any infield position and hits plenty of line drives. He can hit for decent average with doubles power and a few steals as the Dodgers' regular third baseman. Abreu is worth using in NL-only but it does seem likely that the Dodgers will upgrade at third base via trade. NL: $6, Mixed: No. Dave Roberts, OF, SFN Roberts hasn't played in the bigs since May 9th, but may return Sunday from his minor elbow surgery. Roberts is what he is. Pick him up for a boost in steals and runs, until the next injury surfaces. If he's healthy and leading off, he's too good to remain on a mixed league waiver wire. NL: $15, Mixed: $5. Dmitri Young, 1B, WAS Young is hitting a robust .329/.403/.509 through 173 at-bats. His opportunity proves that most baseball teams do not care the slightest bit about what players do off the field if they can produce on it. Fantasy leaguers shouldn't care either. He's been especially on fire over the last three weeks, and should be at least a short-term pickup in mixed leagues. A midseason trade could leave Da Meat Hook without a starting role, however. NL: $14, Mixed: $3. |
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06-09-07, 09:30 AM
| #190 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Surging Yankees Hot hitters, the effects of injuries and recoveries, and Schultz's continued homage to Jorge De La Rosa in this week's Week That Was. Bobby Abreu: Bobby Abreu looked like the Abreu of old Thursday night, getting on base three times and scoring three times. People from everywhere (except New York) like to jump on the "Yankees are cooked" bandwagon. Well, first, they are wrong. Second, in order to be a fantasy baseball winner, you have to leave your emotions at the door. Root for or against the Yankees all you want. However, any type of cogent analysis shows that Abreu is a quality hitter in a quality lineup. If a Yankee hater owns him in your league, strip him or her clean. It will be painful for them, but lead to so much fun for you. Jose Valentin: After almost 6 weeks on the shelf, Jose Valentin is back with the Mets. I would not get too excited here. Yes, Valentin was a real find last year. However, he is a serious batting average risk. Jose hit .170 in 2005 and .216 in 2004. As I say ad nauseum in this space, risk aversion is a key aspect of roto success. Valentin is a major risk. If you own him, sell after the first hot streak. If you do not own him, keep it that way. Dan Wheeler: Dan Wheeler took another step toward giving the closer job back to Brad Lidge Thursday night by blowing a ninth inning lead against the Rockies. Wheeler has given up 9 earned runs (yes 9) in just four June appearances. With Brad Lidge pitching well, it is just a matter of time before they switch roles again. What to do? Well, assume that Lidge and Wheeler will flip flop for the rest of the year, with each getting some saves, Wheeler posting a nice WHIP (1.24 now despite the troubles) and Lidge striking out a bunch but posting unhelpful ratios. Value accordingly. Mike Rabelo: Pudge's backup went 2-4 Thursday night and continues his hot hitting. Since the Tigers trip Boston in Mid-May, the Tiger switch hitter is 10-24 and has raised his average all the way to .286. I wonder what happened in Beantown to spark this sudden offensive explosion. In any event, you could do worse than a switch-hitting backup catcher who provides a decent average. Joey Gathright: Joey Gathright is back with the Royals and has already provided some spark. Gathright collected three hits and stole a base Thursday. Steals are hard to come by. Grab Joey if you feel the need . . . for speed. (Thank you Goose and Mav). Long term, can Joey succeed? Yes. He is only 26, has hit for a decent average in the bigs (.276 in 2005) and was hitting almost .320 in AAA this year. Joe Crede: According to reports out of Chicago, Joe Crede, who is currently on the shelf with his constantly cranky back, has two herniated disks. I can tell you from personal experience, that when those puppies act up, it is no fun at all. I can also tell you that the condition is chronic and you just do not know when you will wake up in a bad way. While Crede is on the shelf, Josh Fields will be at the hot corner for the ChiSox. Fields was hitting .283 in AAA with 10 HR and 8 SB. Look for Fields to struggle for a good average, but provide decent counting numbers. Chien-Ming Wang: Chien-Ming Wang is back in midseason form. The Yankee hurler threw a complete game earlier this week against the aforementioned ChiSox. Yes, Wang will not post imposing strikeout numbers, however, he will post solid ratios, win a bunch of games, and be a constant contributor to your fantasy squad for the remaining four months. Angel Guzman: This week, the Cubs placed Angel Guzman on the DL with an elbow problem. Ugh. Why do major league managers mess with quality young arms? First Bret Myers, now Angel Guzman. If you have a hard throwing youngster, do not move them from starter to reliever and back again. It just ends in woe. Moral of the story next time you see a good pitcher changes positions or roles in the middle of the year, look for an opportunity to sell high. Jason Schmidt: Jason Schmidt pitched one hit ball, going six innings in his first start in over seven weeks. Schmidt is a quality major league pitcher. However, he is not throwing as hard as he used to and is not as reliable as he used to be. He pitches for a good team in a good park, so that is a plus. In the end, if you want a pitcher who will give you 100 good innings, Schmidt makes sense. If you are looking for him to be solid every fifth day for the next four months, look elsewhere. If you own him and someone is willing to pay for the Schmidt of old, sell. Victor Diaz: Victor Diaz continues to rake. So far, he has blasted 8 dingers in just 71 AB. Not too shabby. Yes, he was awful in 2006, but he has shown flashes of brilliance over his career. He will look bad at times, however, there is room in the Texas outfield and it is just such a great place to hit in the summer. Look for 20+ homers cheap. Last but not least, this week's Schultz Says: "All the fun rumors out of Texas seem to relate as to whether the Rangers are considering trading Mark Teixeira before this year's trading deadline. If you are in an AL only league that doesn't carry over stats if a player is traded to the NL, you should be sleeping a little restlessly until July 31 passes. What should keep you up at night is Teixeira's agent Scott Boras, who surely has no qualms about encouraging his clients to test the open market. Don't believe me: just watch how quickly he has A Rod opting out of his Yankee deal after this season. If Texas feels that there is any chance they are going to lose Teixeira to free agency, they are going to have to deal him. While waiting for Teixeira to come into his own, the Rangers traded Travis Hafner to the Indians (for Einar Diaz) and Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres (with Chris Young for Akinori Otsuka and Adam Eaton). Point being, they got nothing in return for 2 All-Star quality first basemen and can't let the guy they held on to leave them holding an empty bag. Once again Joey Gathright is getting a chance to blossom into the stolen base machine all his roto-owners have been waiting for. His speed is so tantalizing that there is always someone who makes a bad investment in him in the hopes that the roto-roulette wheel finally lands in his favor while they own him. As long as he's not tripping over his own feet, he's going to have a chance to succeed in the Royals lineup. However, unless he's not going to cost you anything dear, leave it to someone else to gamble on the speedster. He's burned too many owners in the past. If you really want to take a chance on some cheap speed, try Jerry Owens. At least if you get burned on that one, there's no one else to laugh at you and say they told you so. Oh yes, forgot to tell everyone that I would be watching Jorge de la Rosa pitch against the Indians. Per some baffling rule of the cosmos, he pitches well when I watch him and his outing against the Tribe was no exception. In case anyone else buys into this mumbo-jumbo, I will not be watching any Royals game this upcoming week. Final thought: if you were managing a team that was about to be no-hit and could send up one batter with 2 outs in the 9th to break it up, who would you pick? My answer, Carl Everett. First off, he did it once before to Mike Mussina and when he did, it wasn't even a surprise. Everett just seems to enjoy being a pain in the ass and what better way to disappoint every one on the other team, everyone in the stands and everyone watching on TV then to ruin their ability to say they played in or watched a no-hitter. Hands down: Carl Everett is just to mean of a human being to let that many people be happy. He would be my man. Who's yours? " Response: Good points on Big Tex and the Rangers' bad deals, odd fascination with De La Rosa, and a just puzzling and baffled, huh? when it comes to the Carl Everett reference. However, if I had to pick someone to break up a no-hitter, it would have been Rod Carew. The guy just seemed like he could slap a single at will (for those of you too young to have seen Carew play, that is too bad he is so much more than a vague reference in the Adam Sandler Hannukah songs). Enjoy the weekend and all the hoopla that will surround the Rocket's return on Saturday. |
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06-11-07, 03:54 PM
| #191 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 NL Team-by-Team Notes Homer Bailey managed to hold his own against one of the game's best offenses in his major league debut, but it did take him 114 pitches to get through five innings against the DH-less Indians. Bailey's fastball command is usually pretty shaky, and he's had quite a bit more difficulty getting strikeouts with his curveball lately than he did at lower levels. He's an outstanding long-term prospect, but he's likely to be pretty inconsistent his first time or two around the league. With the red-hot Angels on the schedule this week and then a start in an AL park against a patient A's team coming up, it's going to be a while longer before he's an option in mixed leagues. Most contending NL-only teams should be able to do better. National League Notes Arizona - Mark Reynolds is 4-for-31 with no RBI and 10 strikeouts this month, so the Diamondbacks should be very pleased to have Chad Tracy back from the DL. Reynolds has a future in the majors, but he has holes in his approach he's especially vulnerable to high fastballs and it looks like he's going to require at least a few more months of minor league time. While he's going to stick around for now and play against left-handers, he's barely worth using in NL-only leagues. What's especially impressive about Micah Owings' performance thus far is the way he hasn't missed a beat after being skipped in the rotation. Manager Bob Melvin indicated that he'll be passed over less frequently in the future, and with a rather easy schedule coming up, Owings should be an every-week play in NL-only leagues through the All-Star break. Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez both get the Yankees this week, making them poor options. Davis isn't worth owning anyway. Atlanta - Chipper Jones is hoping to return from his hand injuries for Tuesday's game or by Friday at the latest. The Braves will probably go back down to 12 pitchers and keep Yunel Escobar around for the immediate future. If they can't get Escobar enough at-bats in a utility role, they'd then send him back to Triple-A to play regularly. Edgar Renteria's minor hand injury suffered Sunday only makes it an easier decision to stay with the rookie. Tim Hudson is expected to start Thursday after suffering a bruised shin in his outing Saturday against the Cubs. John Smoltz and his sore shoulder will follow on Friday. If there was ever a time to bench Smoltz, it'd be now, as he'll be pitching in Cleveland. Still, I'd take my chances with him. Anyone thinking of adding Buddy Carlyle in an NL-only league can wait to see what happens when he faces the Indians. Braves starters are always tempting, but Carlyle offers little upside. Chicago - Perhaps the only thing more predictable than Lou Piniella's ridiculous fit in the June 2 game against the Braves was that Angel Guzman went on the DL a couple of days later with an arm problem. The Cubs jerked around and then overused a young pitcher with a lengthy injury history and almost seemed surprised when he got hurt. Guzman's injury, combined with Sean Marshall's success as the fifth starter, suggests that Ryan Dempster won't be moved out of the closer's role anytime soon. Carlos Marmol might now be the No. 2 option should anything happen to Dempster. Felix Pie is up, and it sounds like GM Jim Hendry had a little talk with Piniella to ensure that the rookie played regularly and hit second in the order. Maybe that's not the perfect lineup spot for him just yet, but he does need to be in center field everyday while he's up. The Cubs are again looking to move Jacque Jones, though it's looking like they're going to have to pick up salary in order to make it happen. In the meantime, right field is way too crowded with Jones, Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton all requiring at-bats. Pie's speed could make him a possibility in shallow mixed leagues later on. Cincinnati - Ryan Freel is still having headaches and dizziness after his May 28 collision, leading him to believe he's suffering from post-concussion syndrome. It figures to be weeks, maybe months, before he's ready to play again. As a result, Norris Hopper has fantasy value as the Reds' fourth outfielder. He doesn't bring much to the table other than the occasional stolen base, so the team should be looking to do better. However, manager Jerry Narron seems to really like him. It's obvious Narron doesn't see Jeff Conine as an outfield option. Freel's injury also benefits Edwin Encarancion, who won't have to deal with anyone challenging him for playing time at third base. He's back looking like a solid choice in shallow mixed leagues. Eddie Guardado (elbow) could come off the DL this week. He probably won't go into the closer's role right away, but it'd be no surprise to see him getting save chances over David Weathers by the end of the month. Colorado - Garrett Atkins has started to turn it around this month, and the strongest suitor for his services is likely out of the mix with Chone Figgins suddenly playing so well for the Angels, which would seem to indicate that the third baseman isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The Rockies didn't want to sell low anyway, especially with prospect Ian Stewart not quite banging down the door. Atkins is likely to hit .300 the rest of the way. The power won't come all of the way back, but he'll amass quality run and RBI numbers anyway. Jason Hirsh brought to an end speculation that his rotation spot was in jeopardy with his complete-game victory over the Orioles on Sunday. Considering that the league is batting .247 against him and his walk rate has been decent enough, he shouldn't have had anything to worry about. His problem has been that he's struggled from the stretch, and since that's not something he has a history of going back to the minors, it's probably just a fluke. Florida - Dan Uggla has an even higher OPS this year than he did as a rookie, and he's second in the NL with 51 runs scored. Still, it's hard to see him maintaining his current pace with his strikeout rate up. He's fanned 68 times in 64 games, including 16 times already this month. Also, he's getting fewer RBI opportunities with Hanley Ramirez batting third and Alfredo Amezaga and Reggie Abercrombie platooning in the leadoff spot. He's a clear top-10 second baseman, but it's unlikely that he'll finish with a .270 average and he especially makes a lot of sense as a sell-high candidate in 4x4 leagues. Dontrelle Willis is expected to stay on four days' rest this week, meaning he'll be facing the Indians, not the Royals. At this point, it's the right move for mixed leaguers to bench him when he has difficult matchups like this one. Mike Jacobs (ankle) is getting closer, but he's not expected back this week, leaving Aaron Boone to play first base against his former team. Houston - It's not happening all at once, apparently, but Brad Lidge is being returned to the closer's role, while Dan Wheeler will go back to working the eighth. It's obvious Lidge is physically ready to return to the role, as he's been about as lights out as any NL reliever of late. What will be more interesting to see is whether he's up for the role mentally. A couple of shaky appearances could set him back for weeks, and the Astros are taking a real chance by having him switch roles when it barely matters in which order they use their two best relievers. If it works out, Lidge should be a top-10 fantasy closer the rest of the way. Still, it'd be too risky to trade a big name for him now. Wheeler needs to be held on to in mixed leagues for at least a couple of more weeks. Lance Berkman finally seems ready to go on a tear, so this might he the last time he is going to come relatively cheap. Jason Jennings' stock is climbing, and he looks like a viable option in mixed leagues now that he's over his elbow problems. He typically had a better walk rate outside of Coors Field during his days with the Rockies, and it seems to be carrying over now that he no longer has to worry about pitching in the park more than once per season. Los Angeles - The Dodgers are trying to shake things up, recalling Matt Kemp and James Loney last week and finally dropping Juan Pierre to the eighth spot in the lineup, which is where he should have been all along. Unfortunately, Kemp's at-bats will come mostly at Andre Ethier's expense and Loney isn't going to play regularly. As frustrating as Nomar Garciaparra's power slump has gotten, it doesn't make much sense to bench him for any length of time. Also, while it's still fun to rail against the Luis Gonzalez signing, the fact is that he's been the Dodgers' best offensive outfielder to date. There's no one change here that's likely to jumpstart the team. While I'd suggest trying Wilson Betemit as a regular again, that's not going to happen this week. Russell Martin should be batting higher in the order, but it wouldn't make much of a difference. Kemp will probably start four times per week for now, with regular duty a possibility if he's productive. He's a better bet than Loney in NL-only leagues. Loney is worth having stashed away, but he's not going to be a good play unless Nomar goes down. Hong-Chih Kuo impressed in his second outing, guaranteeing him at least a couple of more starts. He's not a very good play against the Mets this week, but he should be owned in NL-only leagues. Milwaukee - The events in Texas the last two days show why it would be a bad idea for a big-market team to give Francisco Cordero the four-year, $40 million contract he could command in the offseason. Completely brilliant for two months, he blew back-to-back save chances in his return to the scene of last year's failures. Cordero seems to be a lot like Armando Benitez was in his prime. He'll convert 80-90 percent of his regular-season saves, but it'd be hard to trust him in a postseason game. Rickie Weeks (wrist) could be back in a week, but there's going to be no reason to put him back into the leadoff spot right away. Corey Hart has hit .333/.444/.600 in his eight games at the top of the order, and he's 10-for-11 stealing bases this year. He probably won't hang on to the leadoff spot permanently, but it'd be for the best if he remained the regular right fielder the rest of the way. New York - Jose Reyes hasn't looked anything like an MVP candidate the last five weeks. The minor hamstring injury he suffered on May 16 may have something to do with it, but he was slumping before that. He's currently working on a streak of five straight games without a stolen base, his longest of the season. He seems to be running well enough, so this likely still qualifies as a temporary lull. The Mets certainly wouldn't have anything to complain about if he finished the season with his current .310/.396/.452 line. What is disappointing for fantasy purposes is that he has just two homers after stroking four during spring training. Endy Chavez (hamstring) had cooled off at the plate, but losing him for at least a month with Shawn Green (foot) and Moises Alou (quad) already on the DL was a major blow. Green will return Monday, resulting in a demotion for Ben Johnson. The Mets don't trust Johnson in center field, so they'll keep Carlos Gomez on the roster for now. Gomez, Ricky Ledee and Damion Easley can all see time in left until Alou is activated, an event that's likely at least a week away. The Mets might want to go get Brady Clark from the Dodgers to occupy a reserve role. Philadelphia - The Phillies had some knowledge of Freddy Garcia's shoulder issues when they acquired him, but he's been so capable of adapting to his diminished velocity, becoming more of a groundball pitcher through the years, that it appeared to be a pretty good risk. Garcia did seem to have it going in the right direction when he allowed two or three runs in each of his final five starts of May. However, after back-to-back ugly outings to begin June, soreness put him on the DL on Saturday. With Brett Myers (shoulder) also out and at least a month away from being able to start games in the majors and left-hander J.A. Happ on the Triple-A DL with an elbow injury, the Phillies lack any quality options to step in. They might go to reliever Clay Condrey or Ottawa's J.D. Durbin. Kyle Kendrick in Double-A is pitching as well as any of the Triple-A starters, but they'd really be rushing him if they threw him into the rotation now. The best option would be to pick up Tomo Ohka from the Blue Jays. Since the Phillies probably won't try stretching Myers out, he could be activated next week. That means he'd almost certainly beat Tom Gordon (shoulder) back to the closer's role. Pittsburgh - It hasn't happened yet, but Zach Duke might be one more bad start away from an assignment to the minors. With 104 hits allowed and 22 strikeouts in 72 innings, it's obvious there will be no simple solutions here. He needs to rework his approach if he's going to have a chance. John Van Benschoten would be the choice to replace him in the rotation, as Indianapolis teammate Bryan Bullington aggravated his shoulder on Sunday. Rajai Davis did nothing to impress while making three straight starts against lefties, so it looks like Chris Duffy will remain the Pirates' primary center fielder. Watch for signs of him beginning to turn it on. Duffy is no quality regular, but he can hit .300 for a couple of months at a time and steal a bunch of bases in the process. Matt Capps is expected to serve his suspension this week, meaning he'll miss either three or four games, depending on the results on his appeal. With Salomon Torres on the DL, Damaso Marte might be the Pirates' top option in the ninth while Capps is out. St. Louis - I've always liked Todd Wellemeyer's arm, but because of his poor command, he's not a major league starting pitcher. With Braden Looper now performing closer to expectations and Brad Thompson looking like nothing more than fifth starter, the Cardinals are really hurting for starting pitching. An Ohka acquisition would be an instant upgrade, and the club shouldn't wait much longer to go back to Anthony Reyes, who has been strong in his two Triple-A starts. I still expect that Reyes will be a very solid NL-only starter the rest of the way. Even if Ohka replaces Wellemeyer, the Cardinals could still bump Kip Wells or Thompson to open another spot. Troy Percival could be a decent seventh-inning guy or maybe even a true setup man as he attempts a comeback from elbow problems, but there's not going to be any reason to pick him up in NL-only leagues. Jason Isringhausen is as strong now as he was two years ago, and Ryan Franklin remains the No. 2 option for saves at the moment. San Diego - Justin Germano isn't just a Petco creation, but he's probably not going to prove to be more than a bottom-of-the-rotation starter for the Padres. Clay Hensley is the better pitcher if he can get himself straightened out over the next few weeks. Germano has a barely average fastball, and while his curve is nice for keeping hitters off balance, it doesn't result in a lot of strikeouts. While he'll be worth using in NL-only leagues as long as he's in the San Diego rotation, he's already a sell-high candidate. Brian Giles may miss another full week with the right knee contusion that has sidelined him since May 20. Terrmel Sledge and Hiram Bocachica will continue to fill in. San Francisco - Brad Hennessey isn't going to be the Giants' long-term closer, but he is the best bet on the roster right now, with Kevin Correia next in line. I don't see Randy Messenger entering the mix at any point. Jonathan Sanchez would be an interesting alternative, but he's just not throwing enough strikes right now. The Giants will be in the market for Eric Gagne, Al Reyes or any other closer who becomes available next month. My guess is that they'll get someone and return Hennessey to a setup role. Dave Roberts returned from elbow surgery a couple of days early because Fred Lewis went on the disabled list with a strained oblique. With Roberts still not quite 100 percent, he may sit more than usual against lefties for the next couple of weeks. That could lead to some value for Dan Ortmeier, who is occupying the fourth outfield spot that Lewis was supposed to fill upon Roberts' return. Another significant outfield injury would likely cause the Giants to bypass Ortmeier and go to Nate Schierholtz, who is batting .341/.367/.516 with four homers and five steals for Triple-A Fresno. Schierholtz probably isn't going to be a long-term regular, but the Giants find his ability to hit for average and doubles power attractive. Washington - Elijah Dukes is the type of talent the Nationals should be gambling on. Still, they might not have what it takes to pry him away from Tampa Bay. It could depend on whether the Rays like the idea of Jesus Flores as an alternative to Dioner Navarro as the catcher of the future. If Dukes goes to Washington, he'd be the everyday center fielder, sending Ryan Langerhans and Nook Logan to the bench where they belong (actually, the PCL might be where Logan belongs). Dukes could also soon gain a spot at the top of the lineup. It's odd to look at the box each and see Cristian Guzman outhitting Felipe Lopez by more than 100 points. It's one thing for him to disappoint offensively, but Lopez at least seemed like a lock to steal 30-40 bases for a bad Nationals team this year. Instead, he has just six in 11 attempts, making him a complete bust for fantasy purposes. He can't be used in mixed leagues until he resumes running. Unfortunately, Guzman's days as a quality basestealer are long behind him. He's doing everything else the last couple of weeks, but that can't last. Even if having LASIK surgery after 2005 did make him a legitimately improved hitter, he's still not going to do better than .270-.280 the rest of the way. That won't be enough to give him much fantasy value when he has just one homer and two steals in 32 games. |
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06-11-07, 03:55 PM
| #192 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Teix Heads to Disabled List Prior to his returning from the disabled list Friday, Joe Mauer's quadriceps injury led some Twins fans to wonder if he needed to move out from behind the plate and caused the local media (and Torii Hunter) to accuse him of lacking toughness. Lost in all the quadriceps-induced hysteria is that Mauer's stint on the DL was his first since suffering a knee injury two games into his rookie season, way back in 2004. In other words, he's been one of baseball's healthiest catchers. No one seems to be suggesting that Mark Teixeira should move away from first base and with a streak of 507 straight games being snapped he's yet to be accused of lacking toughness, but he headed to the DL over the weekend with the same injury Mauer had. Mauer was sidelined for slightly over a month and the Rangers indicated Sunday that they expect Teixeira to miss more than 15 days after he was unable to walk without a limp. With Teixeira out, Brad Wilkerson figures to see most of the playing time at first base, with Victor Diaz and Marlon Byrd picking up at-bats in the outfield. After going 4-for-6 Sunday, Byrd is now hitting .407 in 15 games since being called up in late May. In addition to making it easier for Wilkerson, Diaz, and Byrd to be in the lineup, Teixeira's injury also gives Sammy Sosa some extra time to get back on track. He's 9-for-54 (.167) with zero homers over the past two weeks. While Teixeira's injury puts all the trade rumors and speculation on hold for a while, here are some other notes from around baseball * Jon Lester came into Saturday's minor-league rehab start with a 0.87 ERA at Triple-A, but left it with an extended stay in Pawtucket looking likely. Lester struggled Saturday, failing to make it out of the third inning while allowing three runs on five hits, and is now scheduled to make another rehab start Thursday. Meanwhile, manager Terry Francona indicated Sunday that Lester will likely be optioned to Triple-A once his 30-day rehab stint expires. Lester is expected to throw a bullpen session Monday in front of Francona and pitching coach John Farrell, at which point Francona said he plans to sit down with Lester to discuss his timetable. With Julian Tavarez continuing to pitch reasonably well in the fifth-starter role and the Red Sox holding a 9.5-game lead in the division, the team is clearly being as cautious as possible with Lester. Don't expect significant fantasy value until the second half, if then. * Jeremy Sowers was expected to be sent down to Triple-A once Jake Westbrook was healthy enough to return from the disabled list later this month, but the Indians apparently decided that they couldn't wait that long. Sowers was demoted Sunday despite the fact that Westbrook is still likely several weeks away from stepping back into the rotation. Beyond that, top prospect Adam Miller isn't an option to replace Sowers because he's currently sidelined with an injury of his own. Of course, none of that makes removing Sowers from the rotation a bad decision. After going 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts as a rookie, Sowers went 1-6 with a 6.93 ERA and .310 opponent's batting average in a dozen starts this year. At 24 years old he still has plenty of time to bounce back, but with just 54 strikeouts in 150.2 career innings he looks like little more than a solid back-of-the-rotation starter even when things are going well. * For keeper leaguers looking to get an early jump on this year's draft class, there are four players who stand out as the best bets to reach the majors and have a fantasy impact within the 12 months. At the top of the list is No. 1 overall pick David Price, who dominated at Vanderbilt and could be joining Scott Kazmir atop the Devil Rays' rotation by the end of the year. Price has legitimate ace potential, with outstanding stuff for a left-hander and big-time strikeout ability. His college teammate, Casey Weathers, went to the Rockies with the eighth overall pick. A right-hander reliever with a mid-90s fastball, Weathers should move very quickly and has the potential to close at some point. However, with Brian Fuentes established as the Rockies' ninth-inning man and Coors Field around to inflate ERAs, Weathers didn't land in the greatest situation for an immediate fantasy impact. In terms of hitters, no draftee beats Matt Wieters from Georgia Tech. A switch-hitting catcher who batted .358 with a .592 slugging percentage this season, Wieters went to the Orioles with the No. 5 pick. Wieters is considered a strong defender and could be MLB-ready as soon as next season, but has Ramon Hernandez blocking his path to Baltimore through 2009. It'll be interesting to see how the Orioles proceed if Wieters plays as well as expected. Matt LaPorta is in a similar position to Wieters after getting drafted seventh overall by the Brewers. A defensively challenged slugger who's likely limited to first base, LaPorta is now stuck behind Prince Fielder on the long-term depth chart. It's possible that LaPorta could play a somewhat passable left field, but it's still an intriguing selection given the Brewers' young roster. He should move quickly and put up huge power numbers at Florida, but needs a place to play. * Gary Sheffield continues to absolutely crush the ball after a slow first month. Sheffield went 4-for-5 with a homer in Sunday's blowout win over the Mets, giving him 16 homers and 37 RBIs in 37 games dating back to April 30. He's batted .331 with a 1.125 OPS over that span, compared to .193 with a .614 OPS through the season's first 23 games. Despite sitting with a .191 batting average during the first week of May, Sheffield is now on pace for a .280-45-115-150 season. AL Quick Hits: Jered Weaver followed in his brother's footsteps by leaving Sunday's game with back tightness, but said afterward that he doesn't expect to miss a start Manager Buddy Bell said Sunday that Zack Greinke, not Joakim Soria, is now the Royals' backup closer behind Octavio Dotel With Tampa Bay apparently looking to make deals, the Twins are reportedly interested in Ty Wigginton and the Nationals are said to be after Elijah Dukes Kenny Rogers (shoulder) tossed 3.2 scoreless innings in his first minor-league rehab start Sunday at Triple-A With two homers and five RBIs Sunday, Alex Rodriguez is now on a .300-65-165 pace Manager Bob Geren said Sunday that Kurt Suzuki will start in place of Jason Kendall at least once a week and will "definitely" play more than Adam Melhuse did After sitting out Sunday's game, Garret Anderson (hip) and Casey Kotchman (elbow) are expected to return Tuesday Magglio Ordonez and his league-leading 1.108 OPS were scratched from Sunday's lineup due to knee stiffness. NL Quick Hits: Chipper Jones (hands) took batting practice Saturday and is hoping to get back in the lineup Tuesday After looking good last week in his first outing back from a shoulder injury, Jason Schmidt got knocked around Sunday by the Blue Jays Edgar Renteria left Sunday's game after being hit on the left hand by a Ted Lilly pitch, but X-rays taken afterward were negative With two homers and five RBIs Sunday, Albert Pujols is now on a .300-40-110 pace David Wright homered Sunday for the fourth straight game, taking Andrew Miller deep for a three-run bomb in the first inning Chad Tracy (oblique) returned from the disabled list Sunday, but Mark Reynolds will still get plenty of at-bats this week during interleague play Eddie Guardado (elbow) could return this week, but likely won't take over as the Reds' closer With another dominant outing Sunday against the Red Sox, Randy Johnson now sports a 70-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53.2 innings. |
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06-12-07, 03:39 PM
| #193 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Big Z Rolling Again With Carlos Zambrano struggling through the first two months, I suggested that perhaps his problems were due to an arm injury. The signs were seemingly all there for a pitcher who racked up huge workloads in his early twenties, from decreased velocity and a drop in strikeouts to more homers served up and a different arm angle being used. Rather than falling apart even further or revealing some sort of significant ailment, Zambrano has instead made me look silly. Zambrano turned in his best performance of the season Monday, tossing eight innings of one-run ball against the Astros while totaling eight strikeouts and just one walk. Big Z also provided his own run support by homering off Woody Williams for the eventual game-winning run in a 2-1 victory, giving him a dozen homers and a .370 slugging percentage in 359 career at-bats. For comparison, Cesar Izturis has 11 homers and a .335 slugging percentage in 2,588 career at-bats. Zambrano has eight-plus strikeouts in three of his past four starts after failing to reach that number during his first 10 outings. However, what makes his resurgence confusing is that mixed in with the three good starts was a clunker against the Braves on June 1. Atlanta knocked him around for seven runs on 13 hits without a single strikeout in five innings, whereas he's gone 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 25-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the three surrounding starts. While Zambrano turns in back-to-back Quality Starts for the first time this year and moves to within one more solid outing of being on one of the quietest 20-win paces you'll ever see, here are some other notes from around baseball * Josh Fields is just 3-for-21 with zero extra-base hits and eight strikeouts since being called up from Triple-A last week, but he's in no danger of losing his roster spot after Joe Crede announced Tuesday that he'll undergo what may turn out to be season-ending back surgery. I recommended Fields as a good AL-only pickup in this space last Thursday and Crede likely being sidelined for the remainder of the season gives his fantasy stock a pretty sizable boost. With a high strikeout rate and very little major-league experience, it's not surprising to see Fields struggle initially. Crede's injury should afford him significantly more time to turn things around than would have normally been allowed, which will ultimately help his development. Whether or not that means he'll start hitting well enough this season to be a major fantasy asset remains to be seen, but Fields certainly has the skills and track record to suggest that it'll happen eventually. * After a slow start and a stint on the disabled list, Ryan Howard is officially "back." Howard homered Monday for the third time in four games and has hit .316 with seven homers, 18 RBIs, and a 1.166 OPS in 17 games since returning from a quadriceps injury. Howard's overall batting average remains low at .245 and he's hit just .194 against left-handers, but his .939 OPS ranks sixth in the NL and he's on pace for 40 homers and 125 RBIs despite 18 intentional walks in 46 games. * On NBCSports.com's "Fantasy Fix" show Monday morning I advised everyone to "stay away" from Freddy Garcia and his sore shoulder even before hearing the results of his MRI. With test results in hand, the Phillies announced a few hours later that Garcia has a "frayed rotator cuff" and "possible labrum problems," which is very bad news. Even more so than elbow problems, shoulder injuries can be death to a pitcher's effectiveness. Garcia has been among the most durable pitchers in baseball during his career and he's just 32 years old, but he's also piled up a lot of innings already and has seen his velocity drop significantly over the past couple seasons. He's scheduled to seek a second opinion, but it sounds like season-ending surgery is an option. If that's the case, his days as a dependable fantasy asset could be over and the free-agent-to-be will likely miss out on a big long-term deal. * After going 0-for-9 in a May 3 doubleheader, Michael Young's batting average stood at .192 and he sported an ugly .519 OPS through 28 games. Beginning the next day with a three-game series against the Blue Jays in which he went 8-for-13 (.615) with two homers and six RBIs, Young has batted .362 with a .927 OPS in 34 games since then. His overall numbers remain below par, but Young is back on track and is very close to being on a 100-RBI, 100-run pace. AL Quick Hits: It's not quite a Young-like turnaround, but Josh Barfield is hitting .304 over the past 42 games after beginning the season 7-for-60 (.117) As expected, the Red Sox activated Jon Lester (forearm) from the disabled list Monday and optioned him to Triple-A Out since mid-May, Rocco Baldelli (hamstring) could begin a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend Demoted to Triple-A last month, Andy Marte was named International League Batter of the Week after hitting .462 with four homers and 11 RBIs from June 4-10 Adrian Beltre reportedly plans to play through thumb and elbow injuries, with manager Mike Hargrove saying Monday that "80 percent of Beltre is better than our other options" According to general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees have no plans to bring Kei Igawa back up from Triple-A anytime soon. NL Quick Hits: Barry Bonds' homer Monday was No. 747 of his career and his first since May 27 With James Loney called up from Triple-A, Nomar Garciaparra was out of the Dodgers' lineup Monday for the second straight game Eric Milton (elbow) undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery makes it more likely that Homer Bailey will stick in the Reds' rotation According to manager Willie Randolph, Moises Alou (quadriceps) "isn't going to play anytime soon" Meanwhile, Shawn Green (foot) returned from the disabled list Monday without first going on a minor-league rehab assignment Brett Myers (shoulder) is scheduled to throw off a mound Tuesday and hopes to return next week After blowing a save Sunday, Ryan Dempster bounced back by tossing a 1-2-3 ninth inning Monday to convert his 13th save in 15 chances Matt Morris' complete game Monday was his third in the last five starts With seven shutout innings Monday against the White Sox, Adam Eaton has very quietly gone 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA since getting knocked around by the Giants on May 3. |
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06-12-07, 03:40 PM
| #194 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Prospects: Draft Review 1-15 This past Thursday was one of the most fun days of the year for those who follow the minor leagues. With 30 teams drafting up to 50 times each, the huge influx of new players provides a daunting homework assignment. Most of those players will never matter in a fantasy league and many still will go on to college or take years to develop, giving owners plenty of time to evaluate their potential. However, the elite talent in the draft you'll want to know right away, be it for keeper leagues or those of you simply looking to next season. As 2006 selections Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, and Brandon Morrow have shown, the path to fantasy relevance can be very fast for these players. Players further from the majors will also need to be considered, as it's much easier to get a future stud now as opposed to after he's already racking up big numbers in the minors. Over the next two weeks I'll rank the top 30 players from last week's Amateur Draft, with one eye always on fantasy league value. This week is players 1-15, with 16-30 coming in next Tuesday. I performed this same exercise last year, and those columns can be found here for 1-15 and here for 16-30. Fantasy Rank. Name Position, Team - Actual Round-Pick (Overall) 1. David Price LHP, Devil Rays 1.01 (1st) Price was the consensus top talent in the draft, and it was refreshing to see the best player go first overall and not slip due to bonus demands, as happened last year with Andrew Miller. Price, a 6'6" left-hander from Vanderbilt, most often draws comparisons to Miller both due to their similar physical attributes as well as their stuff. Like Miller, Price has a plus fastball that can hit 95 MPH but mostly sits in the low-90s. Both players also have dominant sliders, with Price's sitting around 85-87 MPH. Finally, each player has a changeup that lags behind their other offerings, but is at least an average pitch and still has plenty of potential. In addition to all the measurables that scouts like, Price has the results of a future ace. His 2.63 ERA this year was actually higher than it was as a sophomore, but his 194/31 K/BB ratio in 133 1/3 innings pitched is out of this world. Price was also dominant as a freshman and in high school, so there's a long track record of success here. With no significant injury history, good athleticism, and a clean delivery, Price is better bet to stay healthy than most pitchers. That he's considered poised and intelligent on the mound further add to his credentials. The comparison to Price and Miller is also an apt one when assessing their potential. Miller gets more grounders and has a faster heater, but Price has had better results and grades out higher in some of the auxiliary factors. I'd rank them almost dead even coming out of college, with Price perhaps slightly ahead. Pitching in the AL East will be tough, but it's not enough to drop Price out of the top spot. If he's not a No. 2 starter it'd be very surprising, and it's likely he'll eventually be a true ace. 2. Matt Wieters C, Orioles 1.05 (5th) Plenty of teams had Wieters second on their draft boards last week, but adviser Scott Boras was an issue and some teams may have shied away after taking need into account. A big, athletic catcher from Georgia Tech, Wieters stands 6'5", weighs 230 pounds, and throws hard enough to get into 12 games as a pitcher this year. He's often compared to another switch-hitting Georgia Tech catcher who was dominant in college, Jason Varitek. Wieters has better bat speed and a more compact swing that Varitek, making it likely he develops into a better hitter. However, using Varitek as a starting point is a pretty good place to begin a career projection. Wieters was one of the most refined players coming out of high school in 2004, and it showed when he posted a .366/.470/.581 line, good for a 1051 OPS, as a freshman. He's been remarkably consistent with OPSs of 1086 and 1072 the last two seasons, and he's also shown excellent plate discipline with a career 108/152 K/BB. In addition to his success for Georgia Tech, Wieters also showed good potential with wooden bats. He hit .307 with eight homers during the Cape Cod League in 2006, good for second in each category. Catchers tend to pan out less than any other position in the draft, but Wieters is so refined and has such a strong track record that it'd be surprising if he fell victim to the averages. Although he's tall for a catcher, Wieters has the arm and athleticism to stay behind the plate and the Orioles have every intention of keeping him there. He'll focus on his defense and game-calling skills after signing, but Wieters' bat will carry him to the major leagues. Ramon Hernandez is signed through 2009, but the club could rotate the two using the DH spot as early as mid-2008. With 30-homer potential from a premium position and no major flaws to his game, Wieters is an excellent fantasy property. 3. Rick Porcello RHP, Tigers 1.27 (27th) One of the more interesting subplots of draft day, Porcello was considered a lock for one of the top five selections before teams got wind of his bonus demands. Porcello, a Scott Boras advisee, was reportedly asking for a bonus in the range of $6-$7 million and a major league contract. While the right-hander is very likely to move off those demands somewhat, teams were concerned that a commitment to North Carolina was a very positive fallback option for the youngster, giving them little leverage. As a result, Porcello slipped all the way to the Tigers at pick 27. Porcello, a 6'5" right-hander out of a New Jersey high school, is both refined and has an impressive repertoire of pitches. His fastball sits the mid-90s and can hit 98 MPH, and both his slider and curveball look like plus pitches. His changeup is also a potentially average offering, and while his command has wavered in the past, it's been better as a senior. With good instincts and an athletic body, Porcello is the complete package for a high school pitcher and has legitimate ace potential. This ranking assumes that Porcello is going to sign, but the Tigers have made no qualms about making splashes before (see Andrew Miller last season) and it's going to be difficult to pass up such a big talent. Porcello would normally be a candidate to hold out, but with new rules stipulating that all players must make a decision by August 15, it could advance his path to the majors. He still won't see Detroit until late 2009 or 2010, but his enormous potential is worth taking near the top of your draft. 4. Matt LaPorta 1B/OF, Brewers 1.07 (7th) The first truly surprising pick of the draft, LaPorta was rumored to be going anywhere from picks 5-to-30 in the first round. That he went towards the higher end of the spectrum was somewhat unexpected, but that he went to the Brewers was a total shock. With Prince Fielder locking down first base for the next handful of years, the Brewers selected LaPorta as a left fielder despite the fact that he was a catcher and then a first basemen at Florida. LaPorta isn't going to be Jason Giambi-esque at first base, but he's not fast and simply being average at first would have been an accomplishment for him. Translating that projection to the outfield isn't encouraging, although Brewers scouts are convinced he can handle the position. As long as he's not truly awful out there, the Brewers will likely stick with him. And there's good reason to do so, as LaPorta has the best power potential in the draft. LaPorta entered the 2006 season as a lock for a top five selection after batting .328 and leading the nation with 26 homers as a sophomore. Unfortunately, a strained oblique sidelined the right-hander for part of his junior season and affected his swing after returning. LaPorta chose not to sign with the Red Sox as a 14th round pick last summer, and rebounded with a dominant .402/.582/.817 line as a senior. While strikeouts had been an issue in the past, LaPorta improved his plate discipline and ended up with an outstanding 16/55 K/BB ratio. As a senior, LaPorta was older than most of his competition and one can discount his performance because of it. However, a balanced approach, strong showings with wooden bats, and consistent power to all fields mean LaPorta's offensive prowess is as likely as any player's to translate well to the majors. He's a true 40-homer threat down the road, which is a rare label for a player this young. His bat could be ready for the majors during the later stages of next season, and the likelihood of productivity as well as a quick ETA boost LaPorta up these rankings. 5. Jason Heyward OF, Braves 1.14 (14th) Since he doesn't get as much attention as some of the other high draft picks on this list, Heyward could be a relative bargain in your league. A big left-handed hitter out of a Georgia high school, Heyward stands 6'4" and there are reports that he already weighs a muscular 220 pounds despite not turning 18-years-old yet. Although he has a big frame, Heyward is athletic enough to have played center field in high school. He'll move to a corner in the majors, but he does have enough speed to eventually be a modest stolen base threat. However, Heyward's best tool is his bat. His plus power potential rivals that of LaPorta, and if he develops as expected he should hit 30 or more homers annually. However, Heyward isn't your typical high schooler with raw power, as he's a smart hitter and has excellent control of the strike zone. Some scouts have said he can be too patient at times, but that's a much better problem than the opposite scenario. He has as much potential as any high school bat in the draft and should move quicker than most, so he earns this ranking despite playing at a deep position. 6. Beau Mills 3B/1B, Indians 1.13 (13th) One of the more interesting story lines of the draft, Mills began his college career at Fresno State. He smacked 22 homers as a freshman while showing solid plate discipline and batting .319. He regressed slightly as a sophomore, but still had an excellent season by all accounts. However, Mills was suspended for academic reasons following the season, so he transferred to Lewis-Clark State College in Idaho. Playing against significantly inferior competition this season, Mills posted a ridiculous .458/.556/1.033 line that included 38 homers and 123 RBI in 62 games. Those stats obviously need to be discounted by a huge margin, but production of that magnitude is impressive at any level. Mills currently plays third base and most reports suggest he isn't bad there, but a below average arm probably means the 6'3", 220-pounder is destined for first base. Mills, the son of Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills, has a balanced and powerful swing. There are minor concerns that he'll be exposed against tough breaking pitches, but he's always adjusted well in the past and scouts rave about his baseball know-how. While he's more likely to hit .270 than .300 as a pro, Mills could hit 35 doubles and 30 homers in his best years. That'd make him an RBI force and he'd be rather valuable at either first or third, although his owners will obviously hope for the latter. His upside isn't that of some players listed below, but he should be a regular by 2009 and there's a very good chance his game translates well. 7. Mike Moustakas SS, Royals 1.02 (2nd) Although a consensus top 10 selection, Moustakas likely wouldn't have been taken second overall if bonus demands weren't an issue. Although he's advised by Scott Boras, Moustakas wasn't considered to have demands as high as several other potential top picks. Still, the 6'0", 190-pound Moustakas is an excellent prospect and wouldn't have lasted much longer anyway. A two-way player who has hit the mid-90s on a radar gun, Moustakas is preferred as a position player. He set the record for both career and single-season home runs at a California high school, belting 24 long balls this year and 52 in his career. The left-hander has a good approach at the plate and plus bat speed, so he shouldn't have a problem hitting well in pro ball. He doesn't have any speed to speak of, but Moustakas should hit for a high average in addition to his 30+ homer potential. Moustakas has played shortstop in high school, and he certainly has the arm for the position. However, with limited range, a move to third base or even first base is likely. The Royals have said they'll keep Moustakas as a shortstop for now, but odds are strongly against him staying there. If he were to stay at shortstop, he'd be worthy of a top three pick. As is, he's still a top 10 option while playing a corner spot. Although he's fairly refined, it'd be surprising if Moustakas reached the majors before 2010. Although he has more upside than a player like Mills, his ETA keeps him ranked lower. 8. Josh Vitters 3B, Cubs 1.03 (3rd) Considered the top high school bat entering the season, Vitters didn't disappoint and was considered by the Royals before going to the Cubs at pick No. 3. A 6'3", 190-pound third basemen, Vitters has a quick swing that generates consistently hard contact. It's the type of swing that should allow for Vitters to provide balanced offensive production at the majors, hitting for average while spraying doubles all over the yard and reaching 25 or 30 homers in his better years. Vitters is a better bet than most high school hitters because of his polish, but he's probably going to be a better player in the majors that in fantasy leagues. His defense should help a big league club at third base, he doesn't have much speed, and he's not the power prospect that Heyward, LaPorta, or Moustakas are. Still, a third basemen who has a good chance to hit .300 with 25 homers is an excellent property, so Vitters is well worth waiting on. 9. Ross Detwiler LHP, Nationals 1.06 (6th) Detwiler, a lanky 6'4" left-hander out of Missouri State that weighs just 175 pounds, should develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter for the Nationals. Detwiler had a poor freshman year, but broke out as a sophomore with a 2.81 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. His command needed work, but his low-to-mid-90s fastball was very promising. His command did improve slightly as a junior and his strikeout rate also went up, leaving Detwiler with a 2.22 ERA and a 110/38 K/BB ratio in 89 innings of work. Detwiler's high-70s curveball is a plus offering, but his changeup needs further refinement and showing more consistent demand will be a must. That means Detwiler isn't as refined as some college starters, but a left-hander with a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking pitch has plenty of potential. That he has a small frame creates some worries about durability or future injuries, but it's not something to get wrapped up in. Eventually pitching in the National League and in a pitcher's park should help Detwiler, and he's a recommend fantasy option. 10. Jarrod Parker RHP Diamondbacks 1.09 (9th) A 6'1" right-hander out of an Indiana high school, Parker has a fastball that gets noticed. He sits in the mid-90s, and has touched as high as 98 MPH in the past. Add in that he has good command of the pitch, and Parker gets plenty of swings and misses. With such a dominant fastball he hasn't needed his secondary offerings much in the past. However, he does posses a promising low-80s slider and a workable changeup. Good health and continued development of his breaking pitch will determine exactly how good Parker becomes. His fastball means he's got a future as a reliever if things don't work out at the front of games, but his command, mechanics, and likelihood for improvement all bode well for continuing as a starter. He'll need three or so years in the minors before being ready, but he has a frontline starter potential and is more likely to reach it than some of the players rated lower. 11. Casey Weathers RHP, Rockies 1.08 (8th) As I see it, there's a big drop-off in talent after the first 10 picks this year. While there are some players with top 10 potential that haven't been covered yet, the relative combinations of upside and certainty really separates those covered above. I'd try hard to acquire at least one of them if your league has a draft upcoming. With no dominant options remaining, focusing on someone like Weathers makes sense. Although he was an overdraft at No. 8 by the Rockies, Weathers is a future closer in the big leagues. He served that role for a dominant Vanderbilt team this past year, recording a 2.37 ERA and 75/21 K/BB ratio in 49 1/3 innings of work. With a fastball that consistently hits 96 MPH to go with a plus slider, he has both the repertoire and production to profile as a ninth inning option. Weathers' command isn't bad, but it's also not a positive yet and he'll need to refine it before reaching the majors. His two primary pitches are major league ready when he can spot them and he won't need to worry about further developing his changeup, so he could advance quickly despite the control issues. Current Rockies' closer Brian Fuentes is signed through 2008, but he's a trade candidate this summer. That means Weathers could take over closing duties at any point between August of this year and April of 2009. The club has several other interesting options for the role in the likes of Manny Corpas and Franklin Morales, but Weathers is the favorite to close by 2009 until proven otherwise. Pitching half his games in Coors Field will hurt, but he's still capable of being an above average option in the role. 12. Matt Dominguez 3B, Marlins 1.12 (12th) Dominguez was a teammate of Moustakas at Chatsworth High School in California, and was actually thought to be the better prospect entering the season. While he doesn't have the hitting upside of his teammate, Dominguez does have hitting potential. A 6'2", 180-pound third basemen, Dominguez smacked 14 homers this season after an impressive junior season. He's expected to hit for both average and power at the next level, although he's more likely to hit .280 with 20 homers annually than near what Moustakas is capable of. While some scouts say Dominguez has more potential than simply an above average third basemen, he's yet to show consistency at the plate. As a somewhat raw high school bat, Dominguez could end up looking like anywhere from an All-Star to a borderline starter. It helps to know that as a potential Gold Glove winner he'll remain at third, but his bat panning out isn't a given. He's likely to push Miguel Cabrera to first base if the All-Star hasn't left via free agency already, making Dominguez worth monitoring closely. 13. Phillippe Aumont RHP, Mariners 1.11 (11th) Canadian players don't usually get selected this high, but Aumont has plenty of upside for a high school arm and gained momentum before the draft as a result. A big right-hander at 6'7" and 225 pounds, Aumont slings a mid-90s fastball from a low arm slot. While most teams would prefer Aumont used his height to his advantage and came over the top more, the Mariners likely won't change his approach right away. Aumont also throws a promising low-80s slider and has worked on changeup, but it lags behind his other offerings. Since he's relatively inexperienced for a high school player, Aumont is a bit of a wild card. Maybe he'll quickly refine his secondary offerings and improve his command with good coaching, or maybe he's quite raw and will need some time to develop. That makes him a risky option in fantasy leagues, but with the reward a durable No. 2 starter, plenty of owners will be willing to take the chance. If starting doesn't work out, his fastball-slider combination would be well suited for closing duties. 14. Josh Smoker LHP, Nationals 1A.01 (31st) I tend to gravitate towards high school left-handers with good command. It caused me to rank Brett Anderson 15th in last year's column (see above link), and it's leading to me rank Smoker here now. A solid 18-year-old at 6'2" and 190 pounds, Smoker throws a fastball that sits in the high-80s or low-90s, touching 93 at its peak. While the velocity on the pitch is only a touch above average, Smoker's fastball moves well and he has plus command of the offering. Smoker's curveball is his second best pitch and is already a plus offering, and he also throws a changeup, slider, and split-finger fastball. That he's savvy enough to throw all of these pitches in a game gives some insight to how smart he is on the mound. Although his fastball reaches the 90s now, Smoker threw in the low-to-mid 80s earlier in his high school career but still managed to handle the opposition with ease. He knows how to attack hitters and manage a game, which is a great sign for someone so young. Smoker will probably continue to throw all of the above offerings after signing, but will eventually narrow it down a pitch or two. I suspect he'll do well in the low levels of the minors, then get tested at High-A with a mid-summer promotion in 2008. Although he doesn't have Aumont's upside, Smoker is a better bet for long-term health and is more likely to be a contributor in the majors. If everything breaks right, he could still be a No. 2 starter. 15. Andrew Cumberland SS, Padres 1A.16 (46th) It's not likely that you'll have to pick Cumberland this high to acquire him in your draft, but he's one of the later picks that I'm recommending. A 5'10" middle infielder from a Florida high school, Cumberland has some of the best speed in the draft. He utilizes that speed in the field, on the basepaths, and at the plate, getting to first base as quick as any left-hander in the draft. Speed isn't his only trick, however, as Cumberland is adept at pitch recognition, makes solid contact, and is a smart runner on the bases. Cumberland should hit for average and draw a fair number of walks at the next level, making him an ideal leadoff candidate. He also has enough power to hit 35 or 40 doubles a year, but he's unlikely to top 15 homers, especially playing half his games at Petco Park. So long as he scores 100 runs and steals 30 or more bases, his owners certainly won't mind. Despite his athleticism, Cumberland is raw in the field and doesn't have a great arm. That means he's probably destined for second base or center field, even though he's played shortstop in high school. Fantasy owners would certainly prefer second base and that's where I think he'll end up, which helps his ranking. Since his bat isn't a guarantee, Cumberland fell to the supplemental first round. However, he has Rafael Furcal upside on the offensive end. |
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06-13-07, 03:06 PM
| #195 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Rekindling the Passion This week I'll provide some ideas for jump starting your fantasy baseball enthusiasm. I'll also discuss Chone Figgins, Felix Pie, Brandon Inge, and Brian Bannister. Finally, we'll hear from readers on how they know when another owner is a "newbie." Topic of the week: Rekindling Your Fantasy Passion Even the most diehard fantasy owners lose some of that fervor for fantasy baseball once in a while. Well okay, maybe not Aaron Gleeman, but the rest of us fantasy baseball mortals tend to experience the occasional decline in interest over the six-month marathon that is the fantasy baseball season. As common as this scenario may be, it can still spell disaster for your chances of success. Just one missed roster deadline or key free-agent pickup could make the difference between fantasy glory and gloom. So, how do we avert such a crisis? Below are some of my ideas. If you have any, please send them along.
Players of Note Chone Figgins A few weeks back, I wrote about Figgins when he was batting .108 with just three steals. At that time I expressed concern that his finger injury might linger but advised on acquiring him (given his upside) and hoping he got healthy. Well, apparently you can stop worrying about his finger. He's been so hot at the plate since I wrote about him that he has remarkably raised his average to .259 while swiping 10 bags. For the month of June, he's hitting .467. He's scored 11 runs over his last 10 games. Congrats to those who were able to buy him low or grab him off the wire. You can expect continued production from here on in. Felix Pie One of the biggest fantasy contributors over the past week, Pie racked up four steals to go along with six runs, seven RBI, and a homer. So, naturally, fantasy owners are wondering if this guy is for real. Well, it's not like he's going to net you four steals a every week, but he has shown prowess on the base paths before, like in 2004 when he stole 32 bases for Single-A Daytona. And he did manage a .294 AVG over five years in the minors. Being that he's playing regularly, he's an option in deep or NL-only leagues for those hurting for steals. Brandon Inge With his .583 OBP and 10 RBI over the last week, Inge's bat has been as hot as anyone's. Still, it's not something you want to get too excited about. This is a guy with a six-year history of mediocrity, as evidenced by his career .242 AVG. Brian Bannister Spanning his last three starts, Bannister has yielded just one run over 22 innings, lowering his season ERA to an impressive 2.91. Over that period, he has displayed impeccable command, allowing just two walks. Quietly, the 26-year-old sophomore has been a quality major leaguer with a career 3.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His success is not all that shocking, however, considering that he posted similar numbers (a 3.26 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) over four years in the minors. In fact, his strikeout numbers (7.96 K/9) were far more impressive in the minors, so perhaps we might even see some improvement in that area. |
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06-13-07, 03:07 PM
| #196 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Verlander No-Hits Brewers Less than a week after Curt Schilling came up one out short of throwing baseball's second no-hitter of the season, Justin Verlander finished the job Tuesday. Unleashing a triple-digit fastball into the ninth inning, Verlander held the Brewers hitless while racking up a dozen strikeouts in the Tigers' first no-hitter since Jack Morris in 1984. Verlander walked four and needed several good defensive plays behind him to preserve the no-hitter, but had overpowering stuff throughout. Verlander was fantastic last season, going 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, and has pitched even better thus far as a sophomore. However, he's missed surprisingly few bats for someone with his tremendous raw stuff and dominating track record. After striking out 427 batters in 335 college innings (11.5 per nine innings), Verlander totaled 136 strikeouts in 118 minor-league frames (10.4/9). Yet in 272.1 major-league innings coming into Tuesday, Verlander had just 187 strikeouts for an average of 6.2 per nine innings. Not only were his 12 strikeouts against the Brewers a career-high and the first double-digit strikeout game of his career, it was just the second time Verlander has totaled more than seven strikeouts in 45 career starts. That stat shocked me given his 3.52 career ERA and the 100-MPH heater he pumps at hitters every time out. It's difficult to draw many long-term conclusions from a no-hit performance, because Verlander was clearly on top of his game and had the Brewers' lineup completely overmatched. With that said, if he's able to build on the outing and unlock the strikeout ability he showed prior to reaching the majors, it could be significantly more important to his overall development than the actual no-hitter. Missing another 2-3 bats per game could take Verlander to the next level, which is scary. While Verlander joins Mark Buehrle in the club that Shannon Stewart kept Schilling out of, here are some other notes from around baseball * In the least-shocking injury news since Phil Leotardo's trip to the gas station, A.J. Burnett left Tuesday's start with a strained shoulder. Last week in this space I wrote that Burnett's "high pitch counts are starting to become a concern" and opined that "it's disturbing to see that apparently no lessons have been learned" by Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, who was with Burnett when he blew out his arm pitching for the Marlins years ago. Of course, it didn't take a genius to realize that Burnett was a major injury risk. When you take a pitcher with a significant history of arm problems and give him an extremely heavy workload over an extended period of time, it's asking for trouble. Burnett tossed 118, 103, 103, 125, 117, and 130 pitches over a six-start stretch leading into Tuesday's game, with the 130-pitch outing coming five days earlier. And all of that came while the Blue Jays often skipped their fifth starter. Manager John Gibbons called Burnett's injury a "minor strain" and said that the team's trainers "don't think it's any big deal." The Blue Jays got off lucky this time if that's the case, but it's simply delaying an inevitable breakdown if they continue to work him so hard going forward. What's interesting is that the Blue Jays held Burnett under 100 pitches in his first five starts last season after signing him to a five-year, $55 million contract during the winter. However, in 27 starts since then (he'd have more, but injuries cost him about one-third of last season), Burnett has topped 110 pitches 15 times, including outings of 121, 125, and 130 pitches. Why a team would make such a heavy investment in a pitcher who has an extremely checkered injury history and then choose to use him as if he's a durable workhorse seemingly defies logic. The way things are going, I'll be surprised if the Blue Jays get 100 starts for their $55 million. * Let go by the Rangers, A's, Tigers, Yankees, and Red Soxincluding the latter three teams within the past 18 monthsCarlos Pena is quietly putting together an outstanding first season with the Devil Rays. Pena's eighth-inning grand slam Tuesday broken open the game as the Devil Rays beat the Padres 11-4. It was his 14th homer in 50 games, although with 86 homers in 1,685 career at-bats coming into this season Pena has always had good power. What's surprising is that he's hitting .311 to go along with all the long balls. Pena entered this year with a .243 batting average in 507 big-league games and had never hit above .250 in a full season. Now he's sporting a .311/.399/.656 hitting line that puts him on pace for 40 homers, 110 RBIs, and 100 runs scored. The good news is that Pena's spot in the Devil Rays' lineup is secure, but the bad news is that his .351 batting average on balls in play likely isn't sustainable. * After playing catch on back-to-back days last week, Huston Street suffered a setback in his recovery and will be shut down indefinitely. Street experienced pain in his injured elbow and will seek a second opinion after initially being diagnosed with no structural damage in the ligament by Dr. Lewis Yocum. According to the San Francisco, Chronicle, Street now "seems unlikely" to return before the All-Star break and surgery is being discussed as an option. "If Huston continues to have pain, other options might have to be considered," assistant general manager David Forst said. "But it's been just over a month, we can wait a while. Huston has more than this season to contribute." Josh Johnson has missed four months with a similar injury, but the A's once seemed confident that Street would avoid the same type of lengthy timetable. In other words, don't sell that Alan Embree stock just yet. AL Quick Hits: After initially being told that he'd avoid going under the knife, Adam Loewen (elbow) is now reportedly "resigned to the fact that he'll need season-ending surgery" Rich Harden (shoulder) threw off a mound Tuesday and is expected to pitch a simulated game later this week Since beginning the season 0-for-20 and 7-for-63, Brandon Inge has hit .318 with eight homers and a .967 OPS over the past 38 games Despite taking batting practice Tuesday, B.J. Upton (quadriceps) has not yet been cleared to return While the Yankees win 10 of 12 games to climb back to .500, Bobby Abreu has gone 20-for-41 (.488) with nine extra-base hits, 11 walks, 12 RBIs, and 15 runs scored over that stretch Jered Weaver (back) reportedly felt better Tuesday after seeing a chiropractor and will likely make his scheduled start Saturday against the Dodgers Fausto Carmona turned in another strong outing Tuesday, but was out-pitched by Scott Olsen and saw his seven-game winning streak come to an end. NL Quick Hits: Moved back into the closer role, Brad Lidge promptly blew his first save chance Tuesday John Smoltz (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and expects to make his scheduled start Friday against the Indians Meanwhile, Chipper Jones (hands) could be back in the lineup as soon as Wednesday after taking batting practice Tuesday Unable to throw off a mound yet, Anibal Sanchez will be examined by doctors this week after continuing to experience shoulder pain After going 0-for-4 Tuesday, Chris Duncan is 2-for-26 with 13 strikeouts and zero walks since returning from an infected knee Kevin Gregg pitched a perfect ninth inning Tuesday to pick up his 10th save, with Armando Benitez setting him up with a scoreless eighth inning Meanwhile, Brad Hennessey converted his first save chance since Benitez was traded, although it took Randy Winn robbing Aaron Hill of a homer to happen Not only did Hong-Chih Kuo hold the Mets to one run over seven innings Tuesday, he smacked the last of three straight Dodgers homers (on three straight pitches) off John Maine. |
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06-14-07, 03:44 PM
| #197 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Wheeler Keeps Lidge's Job Safe Despite throwing seven innings of two-run ball against the A's Wednesday, Chris Sampson had a rough night. One of the two runs he allowed scored on a Jason Kendall solo homer, which was Kendall's first long ball since May of 2006 and just his second in 350 games spread over three seasons with the A's. As if that wasn't demoralizing enough all by itself, Sampson then got into a dugout scuffle after Dan Wheeler cost him a victory by coughing up the lead. With the Astros up 3-2 in the eighth inning, Wheeler came in to bridge the gap between Sampson and new closer Brad Lidge. However, before Lidge could even have a chance to blow another save, Wheeler gave up the lead before leaving with one out left to get. Sampson attempted to talk to Wheeler in the dugout, at which point Wheeler shoved and yelled at him. It wasn't quite Carlos Zambrano versus Michael Barrett, but it was still plenty interesting. Lidge may be on thin ice after blowing his first save chance since reclaiming ninth-inning duties, but Wheeler isn't doing much to convince manager Phil Garner that yet another switch is the right move. Wheeler is 0-3 with two blown saves in eight appearances this month, posting a hideous 15.95 ERA while allowing opponents to bat .417 with a 1.172 OPS. Whatever you think of Lidge's ability to handle closing long term, he deserves another shot over Wheeler at this point. While dugout shoving matches slowly but surely make their way through all 30 major-league teamsmy pick for the next one is Elijah Dukes versus some sort of SWAT teamhere are some other notes from around baseball * When A.J. Burnett left his start Tuesday with a shoulder injury, manager John Gibbons insisted that it was "no big deal." That may ultimately be the case, but Burnett will miss at least one start with what has been diagnosed as a strained right shoulder. An MRI reportedly showed only a "mild strain" and Gibbons continued to downplay the injury Wednesday, telling reporters: "It's fine. He'll miss one start. He doesn't need to go on the disabled list, we don't think." Burnett wasn't quite as dismissive of his injury, but did issue the leader in the clubhouse for Obvious Admission of the Week when he said, "I've thrown a lot here recently, so maybe I'm a little tired." Burnett's heavy workload and high pitch counts were broken down in this space yesterday, but the short version is that he's a major risk for further problems down the road and has a lot more chance to land on the DL than Gibbons wants everyone to believe. * B.J. Upton headed to the disabled list Wednesday with a strained left quadriceps muscle, which is the same injury that sidelined Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira. However, the Devil Rays indicated that they hope Upton can return when eligible to come off the DL in two weeks, which would be significantly sooner than Mauer got back into the Twins' lineup and a much quicker timetable than the Rangers have given Teixeira. With Upton out for at least two weeks, expect Ty Wigginton to get the bulk of the playing time at second base. Wigginton isn't much of a defender there (or anywhere), but he'll hit for enough power to be a moderate fantasy asset. A side effect of Upton going down is that the various Wigginton trade rumors will likely die down for a while. In particular, reports of the Twins being interested in him have popped up in both Minnesota and Florida newspapers. * The Dodgers continue to search for a third baseman, but the solution might be right under their noses. Starting back-to-back games for the first time in nearly a month, Wilson Betemit homered on both Tuesday and Wednesday, going a combined 4-for-8 with three RBIs and three runs scored. Betemit lost his starting spot after hitting .125 with a ghastly .464 OPS in April, but has batted .309 with a 1.169 OPS in 34 games since then. Of course, he started just 12 of those 34 games while the Dodgers gave looks to Andy LaRoche and Tony Abreu. Betemit's .226 batting average remains ugly, but his .362 on-base percentage and .476 slugging percentage are very solid and he's a defensive upgrade over Abreu. He deserves another shot at the everyday job and it's beginning to look like the Dodgers are willing to give it to him. * With Felix Pie up from the minors and Cliff Floyd back from the disabled list, the Cubs lessened some of the crowd in their outfield Wednesday by demoting Matt Murton to Triple-A. Murton has been slumping of late, but that's understandable given that he started just three games in the past two weeks. A 25-year-old with a .294/.363/.441 hitting line in 801 big-league plate appearances, Murton has absolutely no business heading back down to the minors. Look for a trade very soon. AL Quick Hits: Carlos Guillen's hamstring strain will keep him out Thursday and may sideline him through the weekend As expected, Adam Loewen will undergo season-ending elbow surgery With Kenny Rogers (shoulder) potentially returning as soon as next week, the Detroit Free Press reports that the Tigers continue to shop Mike Maroth Adrian Beltre will be shut down for 3-5 days, with manager Mike Hargrove saying Wednesday that his sprained thumb "isn't getting any better" Curt Schilling followed up his near no-hitter by allowing six runs in five innings Wednesday If the Red Sox look to trade Mike Lowell, the Minneapolis Star Tribune suggests that the Twins could be interested Jason Hammel could step into the rotation after tossing 6.2 innings of relief following Edwin Jackson's disastrous 0.1-inning start Wednesday Alex Gordon homered Wednesday and is on the verge of climbing over the Mendoza Line for the first time Knocked around for seven runs in his last start, Carlos Silva beat the Braves Wednesday by tossing the Twins' first complete-game shutout since 2005. NL Quick Hits: John Smoltz's (shoulder) next start has been pushed back to Saturday against the Indians Carlos Villanueva stepped in for Chris Capuano (groin) on short notice Wednesday, but the Brewers could turn to Yovani Gallardo if the injury proves more serious than initially thought Serving as the Braves' designated hitter, Chipper Jones (hands) returned from the disabled list Wednesday and singled three times After getting knocked around Wednesday by the Blue Jays, Tim Lincecum is now 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA in interleague play compared to 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA against the NL Two weeks after returning from the DL, Henry Owens (shoulder) has been shut down again with the same injury Ryan Klesko left Wednesday's game with soreness in both hips, but said afterward that he expects to return after Thursday's off day Jack Wilson was a healthy scratch Wednesday for the third straight game as the Pirates finally begin to sour on him With a visit to Dr. James Andrews scheduled, Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) could be facing surgery. |
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06-14-07, 03:44 PM
| #198 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Past, present and future A pair of tall Texas-born right-handers made their season debuts this past weekend, and both of them came out victorious. Reds rookie Homer Bailey battled his way through five innings as manager Jerry Narron gave him every opportunity to qualify for the win. Bailey threw 114 pitches 25 in his fifth and final inning, when he walked a pair of batters and nearly gave up a go-ahead homer to Victor Martinez. The high pitch count was surprising, considering how young pitchers (especially prized prospects) are restricted throughout their minor league careers to protect their valuable arms. It would be a shame to start Bailey down the dreaded Kerry Wood road so soon. The problem Bailey ran into in the minors resurfaced in his first major league start. He walked four batters and gave up five hits (for a 1.80 WHIP). Part of that can be attributed to nerves, but he'll certainly need to be more efficient going forward. One day after Bailey made his first major league start, Roger Clemens made his 691st. The Rocket showed a little rust early but quickly got in the groove and retired the final seven batters he faced. Even more impressive was that he racked up seven strikeouts and was able to throw 108 pitches in six innings. Of course, that was against the Pirates. The Mets figure to provide a stiffer challenge in Clemens' next start. Despite the differences in their performances, Clemens and Bailey have more in common than just their home state. They're both power pitchers with a cocky streak. And they both broke into the majors at age 21. Clemens posted a 9-4 record and 4.32 ERA in his rookie season of 1984. Bailey probably wouldn't mind those numbers when his season is over. In fact, neither would Clemens. Nor their fantasy owners. Interleague quirks By now, fantasy owners have gotten used to checking the upcoming schedule before setting their lineups to see which players are in National or American League parks. As interleague play winds down, there's probably no happier person than Toronto DH Frank Thomas. Each American League team plays six series against NL teams, and the Blue Jays played their first three series this year on the road. So after the June 11-13 visit to San Francisco, the Blue Jays will be able to use their designated hitter for the rest of the regular season. Conversely, the Detroit Tigers wrap things up with an NL road trip to Philadelphia and a pair of extreme pitcher's parks in Washington and Atlanta limiting DH Gary Sheffield's effectiveness but giving a boost to Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and the rest of the pitching staff. Speaking of hitter's parks vs. pitcher's parks, the top five hitter's parks will only be in use for one series during the final week of interleague play. The Red Sox (Fenway Park is ranked No. 1 this season), Reds (No. 2 Great American Ballpark), Royals (No. 4 Kauffman Stadium) and Yankees (No. 5 Yankee Stadium) are on the road all week. The Yankees and Rockies will play June 19-21 at No. 3-ranked Coors Field. A cautionary tale As anyone who's played fantasy baseball seriously can tell you, it takes a full-season commitment to win your league. Each week provides an opportunity to improve. And upgrades, no matter how small, eventually help you build a contender. But not everyone has the time to check box scores and review rosters on a daily basis. Other things get in the way. Like summer vacations. At least that's my excuse. I failed to pick up Kevin Slowey in my AL-only league last week. And I'm still kicking myself. It wasn't like he was a surprise call-up either. I mentioned him two weeks ago in this column and included him in my list of sizzlers last week after he made his first start. But alas, a week out of the office, a disrupted routine and a Sunday evening return home left me with just enough time to put in a claim for a pair of Devil Rays. Perhaps J.P. Howell will turn out to be a fine addition to my roster, but I'll still be thinking "what if" every time Slowey takes the mound. The moral of this sad tale: Don't wait until a few minutes before your weekly transaction deadline to figure out your claim. Write yourself a note, set up your pending claims earlier in the week or tie a string around your finger. But above all, don't let your fantasy team spoil your vacation. |
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06-14-07, 03:45 PM
| #199 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Bullpen Report: Week 11 It's never too early to start looking towards next season. With several owners following that clichι in some of my leagues, it's got me thinking about the closers for 2008. Later on in the year I'll be providing a full column on the subject, but in the meantime I will try to interject more future-looking thoughts into the comments each week. In addition, over in the Prospect Report I've been covering the best talents from this past week's draft. Included are several players who could eventually become big league closers, so it's worth checking out for those in keeper formats. All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, Co-Closer or DL. Arizona Diamondbacks Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure) Key setup men: Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten Valverde appeared in two games this week, throwing a scoreless inning in a non-save situation in one and blowing a one-run lead and a save opportunity in the other. Pena still looks next in line despite a mediocre K/BB ratio. Normally it'd be worrisome if a potential closer struck out just two batters for every one he walked, but Pena has had the results thus far and he has the stuff to succeed despite a few walks. Atlanta Braves Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Tyler Yates, Peter Moylan On the day of his 35th birthday, Wickman had recorded three 30-save seasons and two campaigns in which he posted an ERA under 3.00. In the three years since, Wickman has posted two 30-save seasons, and is on pace for a third, to go with an ERA under 3.00 in each year. He'll slow down eventually and you won't want to be the one holding the bag when he does, but it's also hard to bet against him until there are signs of decline. With the way he's pitching, some team, perhaps the Braves, will give him a one-year deal this off-season to close again in 2008. Baltimore Orioles Closer: Chris Ray (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Williamson, Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, Jamie Walker Ray made two appearances this week, picking up a save with 1 1/3 scoreless innings against the Rockies and then giving up three runs in a tie game against the Nationals. Despite an ERA over 4.00, he's still someone I recommending buying now. Williamson's usage has been very intriguing. He pitched three times in four games after being activated from the disabled list, then went eight days without appearing in another contest. Williamson walked two and gave up two runs in that game, then went another eight days before appearing in two games this week. The Orioles have resisted using him in high-leverage situations of late as well, and perhaps the right triceps tendon that sidelined him earlier this year is still an issue. If he's healthy enough, which of course is far from a given, he'd replace Ray should something happen to the youngster. If not, minor leaguer James Hoey would probably be the choice, assuming he has a few big league innings under his belt by then. Boston Red Sox Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In) Key setup men: Hideki Okajima, Brendan Donnelly, Javier Lopez, Joel Pineiro Papelbon recorded a pair of scoreless innings this week, striking out four and picking up two saves. Both he and Okajima still look excellent, and the only question remaining for the Red Sox bullpen is who is third in line. Timlin has been a warrior for the Red Sox, but he looks all but done as an effective reliever. He badly wants to keep playing, but the team will use him in increasingly lower leverage situations. Donnelly has emerged as the team's third option, with lefty specialist Javier Lopez supplementing him nicely. They're unlikely to have much fantasy value outside of deep AL-only leagues, however. Chicago Cubs Closer: Ryan Dempster (Secure) Key setup men: Angel Guzman (DL), Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Mike Wuertz Dempster appeared in four games and went 2-for-3 in save situations this week. He threw scoreless innings in his other three appearances, but Dempster gave up three runs in the eighth inning against the Braves to blow a game on Sunday. Despite the club looking to alternatives for the future, it's not near enough to cause his job any jeopardy at the moment. Marmol is coming on strong and could be someone the club sees as a potential closer down the road. In 13 1/3 innings with the big club thus far, Marmol has a 1.35 ERA and 15/5 K/BB ratio. His mid-90s fastball and plus curve give him the necessary repertoire for the role. I think Howry, who has recovered from May woes to record seven straight scoreless appearances, should be next in line, but the club may look more towards the future and go to Marmol if Dempster finds himself hurt or removed from the ninth. He's worth claiming in deeper leagues. Chicago White Sox Closer: Bobby Jenks (Locked In) Key setup men: Matt Thornton, Nick Masset, Boone Logan, Dewon Day None of the players sent to the minors when the White Sox cleared house two weeks ago have made it back to the team's bullpen, leaving the team's setup roles very much in doubt. The club will likely play matchups and ask their starters to go deeper than normal to compensate. If the club has any hopes of contending, they're going to need something to come together soon. Outside of Jenks and Thornton, none of their current options look ready to fulfill a major role. Cincinnati Reds Closer: David Weathers (Secure) Key setup men: Mike Stanton, Jon Coutlangus, Todd Coffey, Eddie Guardado (DL) Weathers needed a good week with Guardado coming back from the disabled list soon, and he turned one in by picking up two saves and yielding just one run in 5 1/3 innings of work. Guardado is still rehabbing in the minors and could be back within a week. I'm still betting against him being effective enough so soon after Tommy John surgery to grab ninth inning duties back. But if it only requires a small investment, Weathers owners can opt for the insurance. Cleveland Indians Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Roberto Hernandez Betancourt has always been a quality setup man with good control and a strong strikeout rate, but his 25/2 K/BB ratio highlights how he's taken it to another level at age 32. I wouldn't be surprised if he continues posting an ERA below 2.50. Mastny still can't find the strike zone and on the rare occasion he does he's been hit hard. Perez was starting for Triple-A Buffalo, but he's up as a reliever now and is quickly ascending the team's depth chart. He's given up one earned run and struck out 14 in as many innings. In addition, he's always had the sinking fastball and slider to succeed, so as long as his command doesn't desert him he'll be fine to use in AL-only leagues. Colorado Rockies Closer: Brian Fuentes (Locked In) Key setup men: Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins, Jorge Julio Fuentes pitched just once this week, striking out two in a scoreless inning to record a save. With an ERA of 2.15 and a WHIP still well below 1.00, the Rockies will look to shop him hard this trade deadline. Corpas, who continues to impress with good command and an ERA under 3.00 in a setup role, is next in line. 2007 first rounder Casey Weathers could join the team later in the year and would immediately be considered for use in high leverage situations. Detroit Tigers Closer: Todd Jones (Secure) Key setup men: Joel Zumaya (DL), Fernando Rodney, Wilfredo Ledezma Jones has rebounded from a disastrous late May to throw two straight scoreless innings. It's not enough to remove the thoughts of Jones getting hit hard for four straight outings, but it's something. Rodney has given up runs in each of his three outings since returning from the disabled list, but the club has no other options should Jones go down. Florida Marlins Closer: Kevin Gregg (Shaky) Key setup men: Armando Benitez, Henry Owens (DL), Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom Gregg pitched twice this week, giving up three runs in a game the Marlins were already losing and then picking up a save with a scoreless inning on Tuesday. Gregg's numbers are still fine overall, but Benitez has given up just one run in seven innings of work since coming to the Marlins and the club may be looking to make a switch. It'd be best to grab both players and ride whichever wins out, but if not I'd say Benitez is the favorite to garner more saves from here on out. Houston Astros Closer: Dan Wheeler (Co-Closer), Brad Lidge (Co-Closer) Key setup men: Chad Qualls, Dave Borkowski Wheeler blew a save by giving up three runs to the Rockies last Thursday and then converted a save against the White Sox the next day. However, manager Phil Garner announced that Wheeler and Lidge would share closing duties for a while, with the goal being to eventually give Lidge the role full-time. Readers of this column knew that those who favored Lidge within the Astro organization were pushing hard, so this shouldn't come as a surprise. The reason the Astros want to ease Lidge back into the role is because most of his problems over the last two years seem to stem from mental issues rather than a loss in stuff. Indeed, Lidge put up a 0.84 ERA and 28/6 K/BB ratio after moving to middle relief this year, and the club hopes he can regain the mental edge that allowed him to be one of the game's dominant closers in 2004 and 2005. Unfortunately, Lidge found that old habits die hard and he gave up a game-tying homer to Mark Kotsay on Tuesday, the first batter he faced in his first save opportunity since April. It helps that Wheeler gave up four runs in the eighth inning on Wednesday night to blow a game, but Lidge is still going to have to prove he has the mental toughness required for ninth inning duties. Another couple of blown saves and he'll be right back into setup duties, giving Wheeler plenty of value once again. Since the club wants him to succeed so badly, I'd wager that Lidge is the favorite to lead the team in saves from here to the end of the season. However, it'd be far from shocking if he continued to implode, making both players worth owning in all leagues right now. Kansas City Royals Closer: Octavio Dotel (Secure) Key setup men: Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria, Joel Peralta, David Riske Dotel made two appearances this week, combining to throw 1 2/3 scoreless innings and pick up a save. The right-hander hasn't been overpowering since joining the club on May 23, but he's been decent enough to get the job done. He'll remain the team's closer until he's dealt in July. Greinke was announced as the club's top setup man this week after hitting the high-90s in several relief outings. The results haven't been there in every outing, but Greinke has a world of potential in any role. I'd prefer he didn't get pigeonholed into a relief role this early in his career, but maybe it's worth a shot for the remainder of the year. He's no lock to perform well given his inconsistent nature, but he's worth stashing away. Soria, who has thrown three scoreless innings since returning from the DL, is there should Greinke struggle. Los Angeles Angels Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In) Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier (DL), Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley Shields struggled somewhat in April this year, but has rebounded well since and has now given up just one run and one walk in his last 13 outings. Rodriguez continues to dominate as well, recording his 20th save and 39th strikeout of the season on Wednesday night. Los Angeles Dodgers Closer: Takashi Saito (Locked In) Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Yhency Brazoban (DL), Chin-Hui Tsao (DL) As expected, Saito was unavailable on Thursday and Broxton stepped in to the closer's role for the game. Unfortunately, Broxton blew a four-run lead by yielding five runs, four of which were earned, while retiring just one batter. Some bad defense in the inning didn't help, but Broxton still had plenty of opportunities to pitch out of the jam. With Saito back in action, Broxton will return to the setup role. The lone poor outing as a closer shouldn't do anything to affect his value, and it's not an indication that he'll have trouble handling the role down the road. Milwaukee Brewers Closer: Francisco Cordero (Locked In) Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva Cordero entered Saturday with a 0.36 ERA, then proceeded to give up four runs in a blown save against his former team, the Rangers. The Brewers sent Cordero right back out there the next night, and he blew the save again by giving up a run in the ninth. While the outings were certainly disappointing, Cordero had to come back to earth at some point. It is interesting that five of the six runs he's given up this year have been to his old team; perhaps they know something about his patterns or if he tips his pitches. Either way, I don't think he'll have a problem adjusting and continuing to succeed, and he did bounce back with a scoreless ninth on Wednesday night. Minnesota Twins Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In) Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier Since debuting with the big club last summer, Neshek has pitched in 68 major league innings. During that span he's struck out 90 batters, walked 17 hitters, and yielded 35 hits. His ERA is 1.72. His WHIP is 0.76. The opposition is batting .150 against him. Lefties do get to him a little more, especially for power, but even they can't top .180 against the right-hander. If he keeps pitching this well, the Twins are going to have to start thinking about him as a potential closer despite his delivery. New York Mets Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In) Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano Wagner appeared in a pair of games this week, blowing a one-run lead against the Phillies and then converting a three-run save against the Tigers the next day. The Mets ended up losing the game against the Phillies in 11 innings, but it was one of the few dark spots to Wagner's season thus far. Smith gave up four runs in a game against the Tigers on Sunday, but he bounced back on Tuesday and it's not something to worry about. New York Yankees Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In) Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Brian Bruney It was another fine week for Rivera, who picked up two saves and a win in three appearances. Rivera didn't give up a run in his 4 2/3 innings of work this week while also striking out six. With his ERA down under 4.00 and his WHIP hovering near 1.00, there shouldn't be anyone willing to trade Rivera at a discount any longer. If for some reason an owner in your league is, Rivera is worth acquiring up immediately. Oakland Athletics Closer: Huston Street (Injured), Justin Duchscherer (Injured), Alan Embree (Filling-in) Key setup men: Santiago Casilla, Kiko Calero As of this column last week, Street could have pitched in a major league game by now. Instead, his rehab has been shut down as he continues to experience pain in his elbow. The club will certainly let Street rest the injury, and it'd be surprising if he were back within a month now. If another examination discovers more damage to the nerve, Street could require surgery and be out three months. That's a worst-case scenario right now, but it's one that is becoming increasingly likely. We should know the extent of the injury by Monday. With Duchscherer's hip condition sidelining him until at least early July, the club is going to have to start evaluating some long-term options. Embree has done a fine job thus far, but the Athletics are a playoff contender and likely won't want to head to the post-season with the left-hander acting as their stopper. That line of thinking could make Casilla an option later in the season. The right-hander has always had the fastball and complimentary cutter, splitter, and curve, but command has gotten in his way before. Said command wasn't very prevalent down in Sacramento, but Casilla has walked just two batters in eight innings since being promoted. He also hasn't given up a run and even picked up a save on a day when Embree wasn't available. He's worth claiming in AL-only leagues. Philadelphia Phillies Closer: Tom Gordon (Injured), Brett Myers (Injured), Antonio Alfonseca (Filling-in) Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary Alfonseca continues to do a quality job for the Phillies. He hasn't given up a run in any outing since being handed the team's interim closing duties. Those who took the plunge have been rewarded with five saves and a win since late May. However, with Myers due back in a few days, Alfonseca's days as a closer are numbered. Perhaps the club will ease Myers back into the role, but that likely wouldn't take more than 10 days or so. Feel free to drop Alfonseca as soon as it's clear that Myers is ready to take over. Pittsburgh Pirates Closer: Matt Capps (Locked In) Key setup men: Salomon Torres (DL), Damaso Marte Capps had an up-and-down week, recording a win, a loss, and a save while giving up one run in 5 1/3 innings of work. Although he hasn't pitched much since moving into the closer's role, Capps has plenty of job security right now. Torres has a sore elbow and will be out until late June or early July. That leaves Marte the only other capable option with all of the club's younger pitchers struggling. Capps has a suspension upcoming, so Marte will be a fine play while Capps sits out three or four games. San Diego Padres Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell, Kevin Cameron Hoffman was charged with a loss this week despite failing to give up an earned run. That occurred when Willie Bloomquist reached first base on a Kevin Kouzmanoff throwing error in the ninth inning on Sunday afternoon. Bloomquist later moved to second on a sacrifice and third on a stole base, finally scoring the tie-breaking run on a groundout. It's no reason to dock Hoffman any points. Meredith still hasn't been able to put everything back together. He gave up four more runs this week, two of which were earned, and can't be used in fantasy leagues right now. San Francisco Giants Closer: Brad Hennessey (Secure) Key setup men: Kevin Correia, Randy Messenger, Jonathan Sanchez Hennessey entered a tie game against the Athletics on Friday, giving up two runs in the top of the 10th inning in a game the Giants would lose 5-3. The next day, Hennessey entered with the Giants down one run in the top of the ninth, and promptly extended the A's lead by allowing a run on a Shannon Stewart single. Hennessey showed some resiliency by coming back on Tuesday and picking up a save in a one-run game against the Blue Jays. The pair of poor outings aren't enough to put him in danger, but Hennessey's margin for error is smaller now than it was a week ago. Correia profiles better as a closer than Messenger, although the former Marlin has had the better results thus far. Who is next in line could change weekly, but Correia likely gets the nod as of now. Sanchez is back from the minors, but he has a lot of consistency he needs to show before being considered. He's not there yet. Seattle Mariners Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In) Key setup men: Brandon Morrow, Chris Reitsma (DL), Eric O'Flaherty It was a strong week for Putz, who picked up four saves and struck out six over four scoreless innings of work. He's given up 14 hits and six walks in 30 1/3 innings of work, good for a ridiculous 0.66 WHIP. He's not this good, but he should continue to post ratios similar to that of a top tier closer and the Mariners continuing to play well should allow for plenty of save opportunities. St. Louis Cardinals Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In) Key setup men: Ryan Franklin, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer No major changes in the Cardinals' bullpen this week, with Isringhausen pitching just once and giving up a run in a non-save situation versus the Angels and Franklin still looking solid in a setup role. Johnson has struggled of late, giving up seven runs while recording just one out over his last two outings. Manager Tony LaRussa is a fan of the left-hander and it will take considerably more to get him removed from high leverage situations, but he's still not much of an option in fantasy leagues. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Closer: Al Reyes (Secure) Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Jason Hammel, Gary Glover, Shawn Camp The bottom line on the Devil Rays' bullpen: Reyes is still succeeding, and likely to continue doing so, while the rest of the club's bullpen belongs in a horror movie. However, there was one interesting development this week, with the club calling on Hammel from Triple-A. Hammel was starting for Durham before the promotion and was given a chance to start for the big club last year, but he's being used as a reliever for now. Interestingly, the Devil Rays have a surplus of starting pitching prospects throughout their minor league system coupled with a lack of quality relief options. Hammel doesn't crack the team's top five long-term options as a starter, so making the switch and working on developing him into a closer would actually make some sense. He'd probably throw harder in relief and he's always had above average command, though the lack of a second dominant pitch could hinder his chances. With all of that said, Hammel could also be headed to the rotation with Edwin Jackson struggling, as the club hasn't given any direction on his long-term position. Either way, he's worth a flier in AL-only formats right now. Texas Rangers Closer: Eric Gagne (Secure) Key setup men: Akinori Otsuka, Frank Francisco, Wes Littleton It was another strong week for Gagne, who appeared in three games and totaled three scoreless innings of work and four strikeouts. Gagne's pinpoint command and impressive changeup have returned, and it's enough for him to retire big leaguers for now. Perhaps the opposition will adjust eventually, but it's an encouraging start for the right-hander. Still up in the air is if he'll be able to stay healthy for the remainder of the year. I'm still expecting Gagne to need another trip to the DL at some point, making Otsuka very valuable. That he's been mentioned as a possible trade candidate could help as well, with some contenders seemingly needing help in the ninth. Toronto Blue Jays Closer: Jeremy Accardo (Shaky) Key setup men: Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs After a week in which he took a pair of losses, Accardo can ill-afford another poor outing or two this week. The right-hander entered a tie game against the Devil Rays last Thursday, giving up two runs to take the loss in a 5-3 Blue Jays' defeat. The next day, Accardo blew a save in the 10th inning against the Dodgers after a two-run Olmedo Saenz home run. Janssen was given a save opportunity on Saturday as a result, successfully converting it with two scoreless innings of work. Accardo was back again as the closer on Wednesday, but it's clear his leash is getting shorter. As a result, Janssen is worth stashing away in all leagues right now. Washington Nationals Closer: Chad Cordero (Secure) Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Jesus Colome Cordero appeared in four games this week, giving up two runs in 3 2/3 innings while going 2-for-2 in save opportunities and also taking a loss. Rauch had a rough patch of games the past few weeks, but he threw three scoreless innings this week and is entrenched as the club's backup plan at the moment. Despite poor command, Colome is third in line. |
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06-15-07, 03:12 PM
| #200 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Consider Marshall In Mixed I've received a lot of requests for rankings of this year's rookie phenom starting pitchers. How do Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo, Phil Hughes, Tim Lincecum, and Andrew Miller stack up against each other? A synthesis of the Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America Top 100 Prospect rankings gives us this result: 1. Hughes 2. Bailey 3. Lincecum 4. Miller 5. Gallardo Those may be solid keeper rankings, but let's pull Hughes out since he will be on the shelf until August or later. And keep in mind those are not fantasy baseball rankings. Honestly I think we are splitting hairs with these guys, but here are my fantasy rankings: 1. Lincecum He's been toasted in his last three starts, but I am keeping the faith. He gives you the most strikeouts and had the best Triple A numbers. 2. Gallardo I don't think he's the second best pitcher here, but he is in fantasy. His strikeout rate should be stronger than Bailey or Miller and he pitches in the worst division in baseball. The opportunity is still somewhat missing but I'm not too concerned. 3. Bailey Bailey is certainly going to be awesome one day, but I think he'll have his growing pains as a rookie. His control still needs work and while he also pitches in the NL Central he's in a hitter's ballpark. 4. Miller Though he may outpitch Bailey this year, I see Bailey with the better strikeout rate. Additionally, it's a lot harder to pitch in the AL. But you could flip the last two and I wouldn't argue too much. There you go. Argue amongst yourselves. On to the wire! American League J.D. Drew, OF, BOS The Drew leadoff experiment should result in a lot of runs scored while it lasts. This is a .400 OBP guy batting in front of a strong lineup. While Drew put up an 0fer last night, his bat has come alive over the last week. I've added him in a couple of mixed leagues; if he's healthy he'll hit. His contract will give him a long leash. AL: $23, Mixed: $11. Luis Terrero, OF, CHA Terrero's been playing every day lately, and I don't see why he can't maintain a regular outfield spot in a lousy Chicago outfield. Especially with Jermaine Dye on the block. Terrero has double digit pop and good speed; he needs to be owned in AL-only. He slugged a prodigious .560 in Triple A last year. AL: $7, Mixed: No. Jason Stanford, SP, CLE Stanford, a 30-year-old southpaw, tossed a surprising gem last night by allowing one run in six innings and striking out seven. Keep in mind, though, that the Marlins lead all of baseball in strikeouts by a considerable margin. There have been many unexpected high strikeout pitching performances against them this year. Stanford followed a normal progression to make his big league debut with the Tribe in '03. He pitched well in 50 innings that year. In '04, he beat out Chad Durbin for the fifth starter job in spring. A strained forearm popped up in April, which turned into Tommy John surgery by July. A low point came in '05, when Stanford was arrested for disorderly conduct and resisting arrest. Reportedly he made disparaging remarks to a man wearing a pink shirt and one thing led to another. I did not make that up. He battled through the 2006 season, topping it off with a clubhouse fight with teammate Jake Dittler. That time, he punched the glass off a fire extinguisher and required stitches. Stanford supposedly finally returned to his old form and behaved this year in Triple A, but his 3.41 ERA was supported by a weak 1.72 K/BB. Just for kicks, I wrote four paragraphs about a guy I'm not recommending. You like? AL: No, Mixed: No. Esteban German, 2B/3B/OF, KCA German will fill in for Mark Grudzielanek and play second base regularly. The versatile 29-year-old will bat second, draw walks, and steal a few bags. He shouldn't be available in your AL-only league, but could be considered in a deep mixed league based on your needs. AL: $12, Mixed: $1. Brian Bannister, SP, KCA I still don't believe Bannister can be a useful fantasy starter. I respect his excellent control, but he's not striking anyone out. Those two factors should result in a hittable pitcher. He's also been more than a little lucky on home runs allowed. I will continue to pass, even in AL-only. AL: No, Mixed: No. Juan Rivera, OF, LAA Rivera is now hitting off a tee. He probably won't be playing for the Angels until mid-August, but keep him on your radar if he's on the wire. AL: $5, Mixed: Not yet. Carlos Pena, 1B, TBA Who would've thought Pena would be among the league leaders in home runs almost halfway through the season? Probably not the Tigers or Yankees, who both let him go. Pena had 20 HR pop coming into the season, but he's on a 40 HR pace. Sure, he'll slow down, but he'll remain solid and is worth using in all leagues until he cools off. AL: $24, Mixed: $12. Jonny Gomes, DH, TBA Unfortunately Gomes still hasn't gained OF qualification. If given the chance to play, Gomes can still show 25 HR power and draw walks. He may be able to push aside Greg Norton for regular playing time. Keep an eye on him. AL: $4, Mixed: No. Jason Hammel, RP, TBA **DEEP SLEEPER OF THE WEEK** Hammel is probably a better pitcher than teammates Andy Sonnanstine and J.P. Howell. His fastball and curve are both plus pitches and his second attempt at starting for the Rays should go much better. He will push Edwin Jackson out of the rotation any day now. Hammel is a fine value buy in AL-only. AL: $4, Mixed: No. Am I crazy to think the D-Rays could contend next year? We know they've got a ton of offense coming down the pipeline. A rotation comprised of Shields, Kazmir, and the best of Sonnanstine, Howell, Hammel, Niemann and Price could definitely surprise some people. Watch out, Yankees and Red Sox. Kameron Loe, SP, TEX Loe survives on the strength of his groundball rate, but he hasn't been useful since 2005. His eight shutout innings against the Pirates should earn him more starts in the awful Texas rotation. But remember that the Pirates stink. He'd be a sizeable gamble in AL-only. AL: No, Mixed: No. Dustin McGowan, SP, TOR McGowan has the pedigree and stuff of an ace and is healthy now. Why is he overlooked in fantasy? Beats me, but I'm buying. He's tossed five quality starts in a row. His peripherals aren't mind-numbing but he's getting groundballs and showing decent command. I like him even more as a keeper for '08. AL: $11, Mixed: No. National League Sean Marshall, SP, CHN You may recall that I was skeptical of Marshall's hot start earlier in this space. While he's obviously over his head at a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, I'm now hopping on his bandwagon. That's because I read a post by my friend Tom Koch-Weiser over at the fine STATS, Inc. blog. Tom found that Marshall has completed a "radical transformation in his pitching repertoire." He's ditched his changeup, brought back his slider, and developed a plus curveball. He's not going to anchor your staff but mixed league value must be acknowledged. NL: $15, Mixed: $3. Mike Fontenot, 2B, CHN Hey, something good did come back from the Sammy Sosa trade! Fontenot is off to a blazing start (9 for 21) for the Cubs in Aramis Ramirez's absence. He's got some pop and could turn into Ron Belliard or Todd Walker one day. Worthy of NL-only consideration, especially while playing regularly. NL: $5, Mixed: No. Josh Johnson, SP, FLA I just snagged Johnson in one of my mixed leagues (I play in four). He's looked solid in three rehab starts and should rejoin the Marlins' rotation next week. He won't come near last year's 3.10 ERA but if he's truly over his nerve problem he should provide strikeouts. NL: $16, Mixed: $4. Mark Loretta, 2B, SS, 3B, HOU Loretta will take over at shortstop for at least a month with Adam Everett out. Worth a gander if you need some batting average in NL-only. NL: $4, Mixed: No. Hong-Chih Kuo, SP, LAN With Jacque Jones not doing many bat flips these days, someone had to assume the mantle. Fantasy owners care more about Kuo's pitching prowess, however. He's a risky pick with good stuff and plenty of upside. As a starter in his career, he's whiffed 50 in 47 innings. If he can show decent control he makes for a fine mixed league sleeper with some Erik Bedard similarities. NL: $12, Mixed: $1. Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL You may have heard about this. Gallardo replaced the injured Chris Capuano on the Brewers' roster, and stands a decent chance of starting Monday. Who knows after that, but it's not impossible to envision him sticking. Gallardo's ERA and WHIP, even around 3.90 and 1.30, might be borderline or worse in some mixed leagues. However, he should boast a strong strikeout rate as he mows down a lackluster division. Great keeper and respectable mixed league addition. Remember, though, that even comparable pitchers like Peavy, Harden, and Penny didn't really provide fantasy value until their sophomore year. NL: $18, Mixed: $6. Kyle Kendrick, SP, PHI The 22-year-old Kendrick throws in the low to mid-90s with a solid slider. However, he made the jump from Double A and posted only a 5.5 K/9 at that level. His fine debut against a lousy White Sox offense might buy him some more starts but there is work to be done in the minors yet. NL: No, Mixed: No. John van Benschoten, SP, PIT JvB is definitely talented, but his development isn't where you'd expect it for a 27-year-old. Not only did he pitch mainly in relief in college, but he missed a lot of time with shoulder surgeries. Baseball America says his velocity is back after all that, but his Triple A numbers were uninspiring. A 6.1 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9 don't bode well for his immediate future, which will be in the Pirates' rotation. His one saving grace may be his groundball tendencies, but I remain wary. NL: No, Mixed: No. Justin Germano, SP, SDN Germano is turning some heads with a 2.36 ERA in seven starts. I love his control and groundball rate. But like the aforementioned Bannister, a pitcher just can't sustain miniscule strikeout and hit rates at the same time. Something has to give and I think it will be Germano's WHIP, despite some fine work yesterday. I could definitely make room for him in NL-only but he's not crossing over into mixed territory. NL: $7, Mixed: No. Chase Headley, 3B, SDN Headley, a 23-year-old Double A third baseman, has been called up to start today for four probable reasons. One, Kevin Kouzmanoff has a strained back. Two, Bud Black dislikes Russell Branyan. Three, Headley is mashing at a ridiculous .357/.433/.648 clip and deserves a taste. Four, he's probably the team's best trading chip. The switch-hitter has fine pitch recognition, and Baseball America thinks he could eventually push Kouzmanoff to left if he's not dealt. This is probably only a cup of coffee for Headley, but his power breakout makes him one to watch for keeper leagues. NL: $1, Mixed: No. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN Timmmmmay! Timmmay? Lincecum's owners are pissed after seeing him post three consecutive clunkers. I still like him a lot. His peripherals remain solid, so I'll just ride it out. The Brewers make for an admittedly tough assignment on Tuesday, but I'll start him anyway. You: "You're out of your mind." Tim: "Ain't it cool?" Bonus points if you name that terrible movie. NL: $45, Mixed: $30. (Were my initial $55/40 values a tad overzealous? Yes.) Adam Wainwright, SP, STL His brilliant start against KC makes it three good ones out of the last four. Since he faced some of the worst offenses in baseball in those three outings, I'm not convinced he's turned the corner. I like the control but need to see more strikeouts. NL: $7, Mixed: No. Micah Bowie, SP, WAS Raise your hand if you thought Bowie would be relevant in any fantasy league this season. Me neither. But here we are, people are asking about the Nats' journeyman. A 1.09 K/BB in his five starts tells me he's a bad buy. There is almost no chance he is on your roster at season's end. NL: No, Mixed: No. |
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06-18-07, 06:52 PM
| #201 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 NL Team-by-Team Notes It seemed evident already, but Carlos Zambrano made it perfectly clear with his near no-hitter Saturday that he's not hurt. Yes, his velocity has been down at times this year, but it's always improved as his starts have gone on, and he now seems to be over the first-inning troubles that plagued him earlier. The Cubs aren't going to trade their ace, and they'd be smart to get him locked up ASAP if they could still get him to agree to a deal similar to the one that was supposed to get done (reportedly $80 million-$85 million over five years) before the sale of Tribune Co. in April. Even if they can't get him signed now, it'd be a bad idea to trade him when the NL Central title and wild card are both clearly within reach. While Jacque Jones is obviously available, the Cubs are going to be buyers, not sellers, at the deadline. Zambrano is likely to be a top-10 fantasy pitcher the rest of the way and top five is hardly unrealistic. National League Notes Arizona - With the Diamondbacks having the DH available, Scott Hairston got to start all three games against the Orioles, going 3-for-9 with a homer and two walks. He should have had a second homer, but Corey Patterson went well over the fence to rob him on Saturday. Carlos Quentin is back doing nothing this month after a nice surge in the second half of May, so perhaps it's time for Hairston to get a long look. It wouldn't be difficult at all to justify demoting Quentin, who is hitting .171 with no homers and a 13/0 K/BB ratio in 41 at-bats during June, and the Diamondbacks could keep Mark Reynolds in the mix by playing him in left field on occasion. If Quentin stays, then Reynolds, who hasn't driven in a run in 53 at-bats this month, will likely head back to the minors soon. Randy Johnson (glute) can come off the DL on June 26 and hopes to be ready then. With Thursday off, the Diamondbacks won't need to give Edgar Gonzalez another start in his place. Atlanta - Another 0-for-4 on Sunday dropped Andruw Jones' average under .210. Still, it's not much cause for concern. Andruw has always been streaky, and while it's possible he's having some trouble dealing with the increased pressure from his free agent year, he's going to hit at least .250 with big power numbers. A trade seems highly unlikely, as Jones can void any deal and would do so, according to agent Scott Boras. Jones was overdrafted in many fantasy leagues this year, but he's a legitimate buy-low candidate now. Expect 20-25 homers and at least 60 RBI the rest of the way. Jarrod Saltalamacchia won't always play first base against lefties the Braves also like to give Brian McCann his days off versus southpaws but it's safe to assume he'll be in the lineup every time Atlanta is up against one. He could also play first versus righties is Scott Thorman's slump continues. Thorman had a nice offensive game in a losing cause Sunday, but he's really hurt the Braves with his .236/.265/.421 line. Atlanta might also want to take a look at Yunel Escobar at first base. He wouldn't be a regular there, but if he could adapt quickly, he could play against lefties when Salty is catching. With a sore neck and a poor track record against Boston, Tim Hudson is a mediocre play in mixed leagues this week. He has a 9.49 ERA in five starts versus the Red Sox since 2004. Chicago - Aramis Ramirez (knee) will be eligible to come off the DL on Friday and hopes to be ready then. The Cubs will have to keep Mike Fontenot around, which could mean that Angel Pagan will join Matt Murton in the outfield at Triple-A Iowa. Felix Pie, Cliff Floyd and Jacque Jones are all left-handed hitters, but manager Lou Piniella apparently won't try a strict platoon with any of them. Besides, Mark DeRosa will be an option as a right fielder against lefties after Ramirez comes back. Derrek Lee deserves a five-game ban for throwing the first punch in Saturday's brawl. A decision could come as soon as Monday, but Lee won't serve the suspension before Ramirez returns. He should be fine to keep active this week. I like Sean Marshall as an NL-only starter, but it'd be very risky to use him in road starts in AL parks against the Rangers and White Sox this week. Jason Marquis is also a weak play versus Texas. Cincinnati - Bronson Arroyo keeps saying he's not hurt, but if he isn't, then he's just not any good. The velocity isn't there, and he's not getting swings and misses. Sure, he has 15 strikeouts in his last five starts, but six of them have come against pitchers and he had only four in the three starts before that. He could still be injured even though he's not feeling any pain. A DL stint would be best for him and the Reds, especially since it'd give the team a chance to look at Phil Dumatrait. With four homers in the series against the Rangers, Adam Dunn now ranks second in the NL behind Prince Fielder. It looks like this is the year he'll be traded, even though the fact that he can void his 2008 option limits his value. While the focus is going to be on AL teams, it's possible that the Padres and Astros could prove to be two of his strongest suitors. San Diego is known to be interested and can offer Clay Hensley, relief help and a prospect. The Astros aren't supposed to be in the mix this time around, but he'd make an awful lot of sense at first base if the team doesn't mind returning Lance Berkman to right field on a full-time basis. Ryan Freel's favorable examination on Friday gives hope that he could return from a concussion at the end of the month. Eddie Guardado (elbow) is expected back from the DL this week. He'll likely be a setup man initially. Colorado - The Rockies' recent surge might make them buyers at the deadline. At the very least, it would seem to make it a whole lot less likely that Brian Fuentes and Garrett Atkins will be moved. Both are under control beyond this year anyway, so the Rockies won't be losing either and getting nothing in return. If GM Dan O'Dowd does go looking for help, the top priority would be relief pitching. A catcher could also be a possibility, and rumor has it that they'd pursue Michael Barrett if the Cubs decided to move on. The Rockies would target a catcher because rookie Chris Iannetta still hasn't stepped up to secure the job. Yorvit Torrealba is getting most of the time right now, but he's not showing much power, perhaps because of the shoulder problems he suffered through last year. If the Rockies could pick up Barrett, they'd turn Torrealba into a backup and let Iannetta play regularly in Triple-A. The Royals' Jason LaRue is another option for Colorado. Florida - Josh Johnson (elbow) will make his season debut Monday against the White Sox and could soon be an option in mixed leagues. He's worth using in NL-only leagues right away. Demoted to open up a spot in the rotation for Johnson was rookie Rick Vanden Hurk. Byung-Hyun Kim gets to remain a starter as a result, though he'll work out of the bullpen this week because of off days. The Marlins also called up Brett Carroll and demoted Reggie Abercrombie. Carroll, 24, was hitting .302/.341/.548 at Triple-A Albuquerque, but that's a great environment for hitters and he was batting just .189/.246/.358 in road games. Overall, he had a 37/6 K/BB ratio. The Marlins want him to play center field against left-handers, but he's better utilized in a corner if he has to be utilized at all. Since Carroll isn't the answer and Alfredo Amezaga fits best in a utility role, the Marlins have to be in the market for center field help if they want to contend this year. Alejandro De Aza may not return from his ankle injury and probably wouldn't be very productive anyway. Kenny Lofton would be a nice fit in Florida if he becomes available next month. Elijah Dukes, Rocco Baldelli and Corey Patterson are other possibilities. Mike Jacobs (thumb) is still likely a week away. Houston - Obviously, Craig Biggio needs time off at this point in his career and the Astros did win Sunday anyway. Still, how can manager Phil Garner justify playing him in such bad situations and then sitting him in a home game against a left-hander (Jarrod Washburn)? Biggio has an OPS 200 points better versus lefties and 160 points higher at home. Last year, he was 220 points better against lefties and 330 points better at home. Since he must play, the Astros at least need to make sure they're getting the most out of Biggio's limited ability at this point. Garner just doesn't seem to get it. Brad Lidge blew his only save chance since returning the closer's role, but he still had a better week than Dan Wheeler, who blew a save in the eighth, took the loss and shoved a teammate in Wednesday's game. Lidge still has some margin for error, even though he's looking for his first save of the year. I recommended Jason Jennings in mixed leagues last week and he immediately came down with a sore shoulder. He's a far weaker choice now, especially with the Angels up this week. Adam Everett's broken leg won't have a big impact in fantasy leagues unless it causes the Astros to trade for a shortstop. They'll probably be content with Mark Loretta and Eric Bruntlett for the next 6-8 weeks. Loretta will be the smart lay in NL-only leagues, even though Bruntlett may be the superior choice for Houston after defense is factored in. Los Angeles - Jason Schmidt hasn't been ruled out from his Thursday start yet, but it looks like he'll go back on the DL with his shoulder problems still sapping his velocity. Surgery could be looming. The Dodgers haven't given an indication about who would take Schmidt's place in the rotation, but since they need to shake things up a bit, it'd be no surprise to see them go to Chad Billingsley. If Billingsley is available in your NL-only leagues, consider stashing him away in advance. He has the upside to be of use in mixed leagues after the break. Wilson Betemit was seemingly on the way back to securing regular playing time at the hot corner, but then he went 0-for-10 against the Angels over the weekend and looked particularly bad against Kelvim Escobar on Sunday. He's still the Dodgers' best option at third base against right-handers, but manager Grady Little won't hesitate to give Tony Abreu another chance. Matt Kemp is 9-for-21 with a homer since his callup, so he'll keep stealing playing time away from Andre Ethier. He's the better option of the two in NL-only leagues right now. Milwaukee - Rickie Weeks' return from a sore wrist will come Monday, but it doesn't look like he'll be returning to the leadoff spot right away. Corey Hart has excelled there and could continue to bat first for now. He's worth playing in mixed leagues. The Brewers could drop J.J. Hardy in the order if they want to keep Weeks near the top. Hardy is batting .200 with two homers, three RBI and five runs scored in 60 at-bats this month. In just two short weeks, he's gone from being arguably the most valuable player in the NL to likely All-Star snub. Yovani Gallardo won't wow hitters with his stuff when he makes his major league debut on Monday, but I'm still looking forward to it more than I was Homer Bailey's a couple of weeks ago. If he can overtake Dave Bush or Claudio Vargas and stick around following Chris Capuano's return from a strained groin, he could turn into quite a force in fantasy leagues. The odds are better that he'll have to wait until August or maybe even 2008 for a permanent spot, but he's well worth watching. New York - The Mets aren't waiting for the deadline, reportedly inquiring about both Mark Buehrle and Brad Lidge recently. Buehrle makes a lot of sense for the team, and the Mets have two young center fielders the White Sox would love in Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez. I see Milledge as the more valuable property, but he's still the better bet to go. If the White Sox decide they're out of it, getting Milledge in return for three months of Buehrle would prove to be quite a coup. Lidge seems less likely to become available before the All-Star break, as the Astros aren't out of it in the weak NL Central. They might prefer to move Dan Wheeler anyway. Lidge is under control through 2008, and with the way he's throwing lately, he'd probably cost more to acquire than Buehrle. Mike Pelfrey would be the logical asking price. Carlos Beltran seems to be moving around in the outfield just fine despite the sore quad that he says has led to his dreadful performance of late at the plate. The thing is that Beltran isn't even working deep into counts like he usually does. He's put together some of the worst at-bats you'll see from a legitimately great player. Maybe the Mets can't afford to sit him with Moises Alou and Endy Chavez both on the DL, but they also can't afford to keep batting him third while they wait for him to work his way out of it. Philadelphia - Brett Myers (shoulder) isn't coming along as quickly as hoped, but he is throwing off a mound and shooting for a return before the end of the month. Barring a setback, he'll beat Tom Gordon (shoulder) back from the DL. J.A. Happ rejoined Triple-A Ottawa's rotation last week after dealing with a minor elbow injury, and if he pitches well his next couple of times out, he should get a chance to overtake Kyle Kendrick to become the replacement for Freddy Garcia in Philadelphia. He wouldn't be a great bet in NL-only leagues, but he is more of a sleeper than Kendrick. Jimmy Rollins hasn't exactly been consistent with his power stroke. He had nine homers in his first 22 games, none in his next 36 and now four in his last 11. Pittsburgh - Maybe I was a little overly critical in the site's news about the decision to remove Shawn Chacon from the rotation (there's a first time for everything). The Pirates made the switch not because of his poor outing against the Yankees, but because they wanted to try him as the top setup man in front of Matt Capps. Chacon should have been in the rotation over Tony Armas Jr. right from the start of the year. He's nothing special, but there are plenty of worse fifth starters around. John Van Benschoten will probably be one of them, though he was worthy of an opportunity after battling back from his shoulder problems to post a 2.73 ERA for Triple-A Indianapolis. Unfortunately, his stuff just isn't what it once was. He might hold his own against lesser offenses, but he shouldn't have any value in NL-only leagues. Jack Wilson went 5-for-11 after returning to the lineup in place of the ailing Freddy Sanchez on Friday, but it wasn't his bat that led to his benching in the first place. Now that the Pirates believe Jose Castillo can handle shortstop, at least until Brian Bixler is ready, Wilson should be aggressively shopped next month. Sanchez (flu) and Chris Duffy (hamstring) could return to the lineup after Monday's off day. St. Louis - Anthony Reyes' return to the majors on Sunday didn't go as hoped, though he did settle in nicely after an ugly five-run first inning against the A's. He needs to stick in the rotation, with either Todd Wellemeyer or Kip Wells getting assigned to the bullpen. The Cardinals' sense of urgency in picking up a starter could increase further this week if Braden Looper's sore shoulder puts him on the DL. Tomo Ohka makes a ton of sense for them either way. Ohka would likely have a little value in NL-only leagues if he's picked up. I still expect good things from Reyes, though it might be for the best to keep him reserved for one more week. David Eckstein didn't want to go on the DL with back spasms, but the Cardinals weren't going to continue to play short-handed. Aaron Miles will be a full-time player for at least the next 11 days, with Brendan Ryan starting against lefties. Juan Encarnacion has quietly put together a 17-game hitting streak. I wouldn't normally recommend him in mixed leagues, but he wouldn't be a bad play this week with the Royals and Phillies on the schedule. San Diego - The Padres were quick to call up Chase Headley easily their most marketable offensive commodity when Kevin Kouzmanoff hurt his back last week. Kouzmanoff is expected back at some point during this week and Headley isn't going to be a bench player, so expect him to return to the minors soon. He will be an option if Kouzmanoff suffers a more significant injury later. Kouz does have a history of back problems, so it is a possibility. If Headley remains in the organization beyond the trade deadline next month, he could potentially push Kouzmanoff to left field in 2008. Brian Giles (knee) could go on a brief rehab assignment and then return this weekend or early next week. Terrmel Sledge and Hiram Bocachica will lose playing time following Giles' return. It's possible that Bocachica will be sent down to make room for him. San Francisco - Getting swept by the Red Sox knocked the Giants 10 games back in the NL West, putting them in position to be sellers at the trade deadline. They're not going to give up yet and they may try to acquire relief help soon, but with the way things are going now, it looks like Matt Morris, Randy Winn, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz, Omar Vizquel and Ryan Klesko could all become available next month. It'd be very smart to move Morris while he has some value. He's mostly a junkballer these days, and the Red Sox showed Sunday that good offenses can knock him out quickly. Winn has bounced back nicely from his poor 2006, but he's due $16.25 million between 2008 and 2009, which is far too much for what he provides while being used as a corner outfielder. If the Giants could dump his contract, it wouldn't matter what they received in return. Rich Aurilia, a complete bust after getting a two-year, $8 million contract in December, apparently will go on the DL due to neck pain. That'll give Kevin Frandsen a little value in NL-only leagues for the next couple of weeks. Ryan Klesko will play first base against righties if his body holds up, with Pedro Feliz perhaps moving across the diamond versus lefties. Washington - John Patterson (elbow), Jason Bergmann (elbow), Jerome Williams (shoulder) and Mike O'Connor (elbow) are all on rehab assignments, meaning changes to the Washington rotation should be coming soon. Matt Chico is the only current starter seemingly guaranteed of surviving, though it could also be quite some time before Micah Bowie is sent back to the bullpen. Patterson and Bergmann should be back right around the end of the month, with Williams following soon thereafter. O'Connor, Shawn Hill (elbow) and Brandon Claussen (shoulder) probably won't be options until after the break. At least the Reds can take solace in the fact that the Nationals aren't reaping huge rewards from the Gary Majewski-Bill Bray trade either. Felipe Lopez's struggles are well documented, and Austin Kearns had just five homers and 26 RBI in 69 games. Kearns is likely counting down the days until RFK Stadium closes. He's hitting .203 with nine extra-base hits at home and .305 with 15 extra-base hits on the road. A trade next month could be a possibility. |
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06-18-07, 06:53 PM
| #202 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Run Prince, Run! After watching Prince Fielder's inside-the-park homer Sunday afternoon, it's clear to me that no one has truly lived until they've seen a 260-pound man (according to his awfully kind "official" weight) chug all the way around the bases. In a game that the Twins led 5-0 and 9-2, Joe Nathan came on to close out the win after the Brewers closed the gap to 9-7. Leading off the ninth inning, Fielder lofted Nathan's pitch into the outfield. And that's when things got interesting. With Torii Hunter out of the game after being hit on the hand by a Jeff Suppan pitch, Lew Ford casually made his way into right-center field for the easy catch. Except the ball was in straight-away center, at least 50 feet from Ford. An outfielder losing a ball in the Metrodome roof is far from unique, but losing it so completely and in such a key spot was remarkable. After jogging to first base, Fielder turned on the jets and actually made pretty good time around the bases. He appeared to be on skates as he rounded each base and I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins' infielders heard some sort of screeching sound as he changed direction each time, but Fielder easily beat the throw home and somehow avoided passing out at the plate. Not only was it Fielder's NL-leading 25th homer, it was the first "long ball" that Nathan has allowed since way back on August 26, 2006, which is a span of 42.2 innings spread over 42 appearances. Milwaukee eventually tied the game off Nathan, handing him just his second blown save since that same August 26 appearance last season. Fortunately for Ford, Nathan, and the Twins, Justin Morneau led off the bottom of the ninth inning by launching the second pitch he saw from Chris Spurling into the seats for a walk-off homer. It's not often that you see a seven-run comeback spoiled by a walk-off homer, yet it's Fielder's four-base jaunt that I'll always remember. While Fielder catches his breath, here are some other notes from around baseball * Jack Cust went into a prolonged slump after initially looking like Babe Ruth when the A's called him up earlier this season. Now that he's hitting well again, going 9-for-11 over the weekend, the A's have apparently decided to push back Mike Piazza's return from the disabled list. Piazza appeared on the verge of coming back from a shoulder injury, but may now be several weeks away after the A's asked him to continue rehabbing in effort to prepare for catching duties. Confident that Cust and whichever outfielders aren't injured on a given day can capably man designated hitter for a while longer, the plan is reportedly to get Piazza ready for multiple starts per week behind the plate. According to his agent, Piazza is "thinking about" a scenario that the A's proposed "in which Jason Kendall would be the lead catcher and Mike would catch a few days a week and DH the remaining games." Piazza entered the season as a full-time DH after not catching at all during spring training, so suddenly asking him to catch again following a shoulder injury seems like the oddest of timing. Beyond that, Kendall has actually shown some signs of life at the plate recently, homering for the first time since 2005 and going 15-for-40 (.375) with six extra-base hits over the past 10 games after managing a total of two extra-base hits through the first 50 games. Stay tuned. * Out of the lineup for five straight games, Elijah Dukes had a closed-door talk with manager Joe Maddon over the weekend. Maddon revealed Sunday that he explained to Dukes that Jonny Gomes' hot hitting is the primary reason behind his time on the bench. "I just explained to him that Jon Gomes is playing at a high level right now and I want Jon to get a chance," Maddon said. "The timing is not good based on everything else, but Jon deserves a chance, too." "Everything else" is, of course, Dukes' myriad off-field problems. If the various trade rumors are accurate and the Devil Rays are indeed actively shopping Dukes, it's possible that they've decided that giving him playing time at this stage is pointless. In other words, if they've already tired of his act and have given up on him being a long-term piece of the puzzle, then Gomes might as well get some at-bats until a trade is officially made. On the other hand, it's possible that Dukes' .191 batting average is playing an equally big part in the benching. Whatever the case, Gomes is deserving of another chance and has taken advantage of the opportunity so far, going 8-for-15 (.571) with three homers, two doubles, and six RBIs in four games since returning from Triple-A. Maddon indicated that Gomes will be in the lineup again Monday, but declined to say when Dukes would get another start. * When A.J. Burnett left his start last week with a shoulder injury, I criticized the Blue Jays for overworking him despite a long history of arm problems. Manager John Gibbons spent several days downplaying Burnett's injury, saying that it was "fine" and "no big deal" while telling reporters that "he doesn't need to go on the disabled list, we don't think." After hearing that, I suggested that Burnett "has a lot more chance to land on the DL than Gibbons wants everyone to believe." Sure enough, after initially being scratched from just one start, Burnett experienced additional pain while throwing a bullpen session Sunday. He's already been scratched from a second start and it certainly sounds like a stint on the DL is inevitable. Between overworking a fragile pitcher, downplaying his injury, and trying to keep him off the DL, the Blue Jays' handling of Burnett has been far from their finest moment. Hopefully it doesn't add up to a significant problem. * For all the recent talk of Barry Bonds' so-called struggles, he continues to crush the ball when teams actually pitch to him. After going 3-for-9 with career homer No. 748 and two intentional walks against the Red Sox over the weekend, Bonds ranks third among all MLB hitters with one homer for every 11.9 at-bats. Alex Rodriguez (9.3) and Prince Fielder (10.5) are the only hitters who rank ahead of Bonds, who also leads the league in on-base percentage and OPS. Injuries and intentional walks have limited Bonds to a total of just 576 at-bats since the beginning of the 2005 season, but over that stretch he's smacked 45 homers. To put that in some context, consider that Albert Pujols has averaged 41 homers per 576 at-bats during his career. There are no shortage of legitimate reasons to criticize Bonds, but seeing more and more media members inaccurately spin every Bonds slump as the end of his dominance at the plate is amusing. AL Quick Hits: According to the New York Post, the Yankees have talked to the Angels about Shea Hillenbrand On the disabled list since June 7, Ramon Hernandez (groin) is expected to return when eligible Friday Torii Hunter's hand injury looked ugly when he left Sunday's game, but he hopes to play Monday after being diagnosed with merely a bruise Kei Igawa will return from the minors to replace Tyler Clippard in the rotation, starting Friday against the Giants Casey Kotchman (concussion) looks likely to avoid the DL, but will probably miss several games Justin Verlander followed up his no-hitter with six innings of three-run ball Sunday against the Phillies, striking out six batters while picking up his eighth victory With a spot in the Twins' rotation there for the taking, Matt Garza got knocked around for five runs in six innings Saturday at Triple-A Garret Anderson's (groin) return to the DL puts Reggie Willits back into an everyday role After serving up three homers Sunday, Kevin Slowey's next start has been pushed back to June 26 against the Blue Jays. NL Quick Hits: As expected, Yovani Gallardo's major-league debut will come Monday against the Giants With his velocity down in back-to-back poor outings, manager Grady Little said Sunday that Jason Schmidt's next start is "on hold right now" Ryan Zimmerman homered just once through the first 35 games, but has 11 homers and 32 RBIs in 34 games since After two strong minor-league rehab outings, Josh Johnson (elbow) will start Monday for the first time since mid-September Corey Hart has five homers, 12 RBIs, 12 runs, and seven steals in 13 games as a leadoff hitter, but may move down in the lineup with Rickie Weeks (wrist) due back Monday Despite struggling Sunday at Triple-A, manager Jerry Narron said that Eddie Guardado (elbow) will be "ready to go sometime this week" Now a full-time hitter, Rick Ankiel is batting .282 with 19 homers and a .923 OPS in 57 games at Triple-A Bronson Arroyo continues to insist that he's not injured, but a 10.62 ERA over the past six starts says otherwise. |
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06-19-07, 10:45 AM
| #203 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Is Schilling Pitching Hurt? Curt Schilling has turned in back-to-back rough outings since coming one out short of a no-hitter on June 7, with the latest coming Monday when the Braves got to him for six runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings. Schilling failed to record a strikeout for the first time in 348 starts spread over 14 seasons and the Boston Globe quoted an anonymous scout as saying that it was "the worst I've ever see him throw." After singling in all three at-bats against Schilling, Chipper Jones suggested afterward that the 40-year-old right-hander might be pitching through an injury of some kind. "The fastball that I saw register the highest was 89, and that was with the bases loaded," Jones said. "Schill always had that innate ability to catch another gear when he needs it, and for me to only see 89 miles an hour tells me, you know, he might be hurt." Schilling essentially avoided the issue when asked, but Jones' statements were plenty strong on their own. "Schill's such a bulldog, man, he's not going to admit it unless it's to the point he just can't go anymore," Jones said. "But when you drop your velocity into the 80s, it makes his split less effective, his cutter less effective. He's used to pitching and getting away with mistakes, all at 90-plus miles an hour, but at 89 you get away with less mistakes." While Red Sox fans nervously check Schilling's blog for the latest pitch-by-pitch start breakdown, here are some other notes from around baseball * Yovani Gallardo's big-league debut Monday was a good one, with the 21-year-old holding the Giants to three runs over 6.1 innings while smacking a run-scoring double on the way to his first win. After struggling in the first inning, Gallardo retired 15 of 16 hitters while issuing a walk to Barry Bonds. Sent back out for the seventh inning despite having thrown 92 pitches through six frames, Gallardo served up a leadoff homer and issued a walk before being yanked. Gallardo struggled with his command at times, but clearly showed enough to suggest that he deserves a place in the Brewers' rotation based solely on ability. However, with Chris Capuano likely due back from the disabled list after one more trip through the rotation and the Brewers perhaps hesitant to ditch Dave Bush or Claudio Vargas, Gallardo could be headed back to Triple-A for a little more seasoning before he sticks for good. * Chone Figgins put an exclamation point on his dramatic in-season turnaround Monday, going 6-for-6 with a game-tying single in the seventh inning and a walk-off triple in the ninth inning. After missing the first month of the season with fractured fingers, Figgins went 12-for-90 (.133) with just three steals and 10 runs in his first 25 games. In 17 games since then, he's gone 36-for-79 (.456) with a dozen steals and 17 runs. Figgins has managed multiple hits in 11 of those 17 gamesincluding a four-hit game and set of three-hit games prior to Monday's six-hit gameamazingly raising his overall batting average from .133 to .284 in just 19 days. Seemingly once in serious danger of losing his everyday spot in the Angels' lineup because of uselessness at the plate and sloppiness in the field, Figgins has quickly regained his place atop the batting order and has started every game since May 31. * Despite calling it "a little weird" and "a little bit of a shock," Mike Piazza said Monday that he'll go along with the A's request that he delay his return from the disabled list in order to prepare for work behind the plate. Out since May 1 with an injured shoulder, Piazza revealed that it was "extremely painful" when he attempted to throw recently, which suggests that he could be a long way from returning if the A's insist that he be ready to catch. Don't cash in that Jack Cust stock yet. * The Tigers announced that Kenny Rogers will come off the disabled list to make his season debut Friday against the Braves. That's not a great first matchup and Rogers figures to struggle initially after shoulder surgery. With that said, the Tigers' offense is so good that he'll be able to pick up wins anyway thanks to the outstanding run support and Rogers figures to have solid AL-only value beginning in July. No announcement has been made yet regarding who Rogers will bump from the rotation, but it'll likely come down to Andrew Miller or Chad Durbin. AL Quick Hits: Rocco Baldelli (hamstring) suffered a setback and won't be returning this weekend Justin Duchscherer (hip) is close to throwing off a mound, but season-ending surgery hasn't been ruled out if his comeback stalls Because of lingering headaches, Casey Kotchman (concussion) has not yet been cleared to get back into the lineup Starting over Elijah Dukes again Monday, Jonny Gomes continued his hot hitting with a homer and a double Manager Ozzie Guillen said that Scott Podsednik (groin) is unlikely to return until next week despite stealing two bases Monday at Triple-A With a scoreless ninth inning Monday, Octavio Dotel is now 6-for-6 as the Royals' closer Out at least 3-4 weeks, Garret Anderson (hip) said Monday that his latest injury isn't as severe as the one that sidelined him for six weeks Because of knee problems and interleague play, Mike Sweeney will be limited to pinch-hitting duties this week Juan Rincon has been knocked around in back-to-back outings and his overall numbers show a pitcher in serious decline. NL Quick Hits: With Jason Schmidt (shoulder) heading to the disabled list Monday, it sounds like Chad Billingsley will step back into the Dodgers' rotation Josh Johnson (elbow) struggled Monday in his season debut, allowing nine hits and four walks in 3.2 innings With Jim Edmonds (back) out, So Taguchi is an underrated pickup in NL-only leagues Rickie Weeks (wrist) returned from the DL by smacking two doubles, but batted eighth Monday while Corey Hart remained in the leadoff spot With Matt Capps beginning a three-game suspension Tuesday, Shawn Chacon or Damaso Marte could be in line for a save chance After going 4-for-5 with three RBIs Monday, Mark Loretta appears locked in as Adam Everett's replacement Derrek Lee and Chris Young received matching five-game suspensions for Saturday's fight, so Young will simply have to push a start back one day On the verge of setting a career-high for innings in mid-June, it's not surprising that Braden Looper (shoulder) landed on the DL Signed earlier this month, 2006 first-round pick Max Scherzer is headed to Double-A after posting a 0.53 ERA and 30-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17 innings at Single-A. |
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06-20-07, 01:56 PM
| #204 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Whom Do You Hate? This week I'll talk a little about some people I hate and give my thoughts on Todd Helton, Vernon Wells, Josh Johnson, and Yovani Gallardo. Topic of the week: Whom Do You Hate? We all have people we despise for one reason or another or maybe no real reason at all. I'm not an angry person by nature, but there are some dudes out there whom I'd just love to ground and pound for a couple of hours. Like the super-tall dude from my old company who used to peer over the bathroom stall door to confirm that it was occupied. (I'm being kind with the supposed motive here.) No kidding. I was sitting there in the stall one day when this big clutz came clomping into the men's room and slammed into the stall door to no avail. Instead of assuming that someone had locked the door intentionally and settling for the wide open stall to his left, he literally craned his neck to look over the wall and right at me. Uh, can I help you? Personally, I don't usually even have to make physical contact with a stall door to know if it's locked or not. You can usually see if the lock is connected. In the rare case that I cannot tell, I might give a gentle push. If there's any resistance, I'm on to the next one. But not tall clutz! He assumes that the reason his 240-pound frame can't bust through the flimsy door is either because it's stuck or someone locked it from the inside and then crawled out. The craziest part is that, after all of this, the dude actually acknowledged seeing me! Instead of pretending like it never happened (as most normal people who look over bathroom stall walls would), the dude sat on his second-choice toilet, unabashedly unloaded gas like a whoopee cushion, and then said, "Are you guys playing basketball today?" Of course, I wish I'd thought of some clever retort, but I was in too much shock. Come to find out, he'd done the same thing to at least three other guys! There are plenty of other people that rub me the wrong way: the dude who plays hoops with us who is so ignorant about the game that he refer to picks as "back checks" but still feels compelled to angrily argue calls at every turn, Matt Lauer, Dermot Mulroney, and of course Rosie O'Donnell. In terms of fantasy sports, it's guys like Rich Harden, who cons me into drafting him later and later every year in hopes that he'll stay healthy then starts the season looking great only to park it on the DL once again. I know you have some pent up hostility toward a player or two as well, and I want to hear about it. As always, send your submissions to jgangi@rotoworld.com. Players of Note Todd Helton I expected the bulk Helton added over the off season would cure his power deficiency from the previous two years (which explains why I drafted him with the 126th pick in my draft). Strangely, though, that hasn't happened at least not yet anyway. With just eight round trippers to date, he's on pace for about 17 or 18, which would be the second lowest full-season total of his 11-year career. (Last year's 15, of course, represent his low mark.) Certainly, Helton has not been bad especially not from a "real" baseball perspective. After all, he is hitting .324. However, the issue from a fantasy perspective is the depth at first base. Most teams in 12-team leagues have a more productive first baseman than Helton. In fact, many teams have two. That makes it tough to justify using a roster spot for Helton in a shallow league, when you could use that spot for potential help at a position where you really need it. Even a slight uptick in power would put him make him a solid fantasy starter again, but there's no guarantee that will happen. Keep in mind that Helton's home run numbers have gone down in each of the last three season and have dropped off dramatically since he swatted 49 in 2001. With that in mind, if you can trade him for equal production at a shallower position, that would be advisable. Vernon Wells Hitting .254 with six homers, Wells has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments thus far. With the way things have gone for Toronto you'd almost expect his struggles to continue. We've seen him heat up after the All-Star break before, but his reputation as a second-half hitter is inaccurate. Over his career, in fact, his first- and second-half numbers are very similar. He's hit .288 after the break to .284 before. And he's averaged a homer in every 22 at bats before the break to one in every 26 after. Still, it's hard to imagine he won't see at least some improvement, making him a decent buy-low candidate. Just don't overspend to get him. Josh Johnson Johnson was the crux of some serious conflict here at OTBS last year. After his hot start, I kept predicting that his numbers would drop off to be more in line with the stats he posted in the minors. That really pissed off some of his owners who apparently felt like his performance reflected their superior knowledge and not luck. Then came the heated debate over whether height has anything to do with being a good pitcher. (I say it certainly does not guarantee success.) Ultimately, Johnson's performance did fall off, as his ERA in the second half was nearly two full points higher than that of the first half. To be fair, though, it took a lot longer than expected, and all in all the kid had a nice season (3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 12 wins, 133 K in 157 IP). So it seems this conflict has yet to be resolved. Will the 23-year-old produce like he did in the first half of last year or like he did in the second half (and in the minors)? Odds are in favor of the latter, of course. However, if he qualifies as an RP (like he does in my league), and you employ the strategy of using an SP in an RP slot (like I do in my H2H league), you could do worse. Yovani Gallardo Reminiscent of Rich Hill before he was called up last year, Gallardo was mowing batters down at an alarming clip in Triple-A. 110 K in 77.2 innings? That's 1.4 strikeouts an inning! His 2.91 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for Nashville were obviously nothing to scoff at either. Of course, even the best prospects can struggle when they first face big-league hitting, but Gallardo's debut against the Giants was encouraging, as he allowed only seven base runners in 6.1 IP. Whether he is ready to face better offenses than the Giants and whether he can even hold onto a rotation spot remains to be seen, but using Hill's second-half performance from last year (2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 79 K in 80 IP) as a precedent, there's reason to believe Gallardo can produce for you this season especially against NL lineups. |
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06-20-07, 01:57 PM
| #205 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Cubs send Barrett to Padres According to various reports published Wednesday morning, the Cubs have traded Michael Barrett to the Padres for Rob Bowen and outfield prospect Kyler Burke. The move comes less than a week after manager Lou Piniella said that Barrett's playing time would be reduced, and is no doubt tied to Barrett's dugout fight with Carlos Zambrano on June 1 and argument with Rich Hill on June 12. A free agent after this season, the Cubs moved quickly to trade Barrett after his latest incident and in doing so got less than a full return. Bowen is a quality backup catcher who figures to split time with Koyie Hill until Henry Blanco returns from a neck injury and is under the team's control for multiple years, but represents a significant dropoff from Barrett. Burke was a first-round pick in the 2006 draft, but is hitting just .211 at Single-A after batting .209 in rookie-ball. Believe it or not, there are no clear winners here from a fantasy perspective. Barrett figures to resume playing nearly every day after giving way to Hill in seven of the past 16 games, but the move to pitcher-friendly Petco Park will offset most of the value gained from additional playing time. Meanwhile, Josh Bard goes to backing up one of the game's most durable catchers after starting 43 of the Padres' first 69 games. Bowen figures to play more often in Chicago than he did in San Diego, but lacks the offensive potential to do a whole lot with the additional at-bats. The best bet for a value boost is probably Hill, because Barrett's departure clears the way for him to take on a bigger short- and long-term role. His offensive track record is more impressive than Bowen's, but Hill is far from a sure thing to produce solid numbers at the plate and will have to hold off prospect Geovany Soto. While the Cubs choose their free-agent-to-be ace over their free-agent-to-be catcher and Jake Peavy starts practicing his dugout boxing just in case, here are some other notes from around baseball * The news on Jason Schmidt and his injured shoulder keep getting worse. After a good first outing in his return from the disabled list earlier this month, he displayed significantly decreased velocity while struggling in his next two outings. On Sunday the Dodgers said that they were considering skipping his turn in the rotation, on Monday they placed him back on the DL, and on Tuesday they announced that he'll undergo surgery. The team indicated that the extent of Schmidt's injury likely won't be known until he's under the knife, so expect further updates following Wednesday's surgery. Whatever the case, he's likely facing an extended layoff and is an extremely poor bet for any type of success in the second half. At worst, Schmidt could be sidelined deep into next season after signing a three-year, $47 million contract with the Dodgers at the Winter Meetings. With Schmidt out, Chad Billingsley will step back into the rotation after going 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA, 40-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .221 opponent's batting average in 35 innings out of the bullpen. Billingsley struggled with his command while making 16 starts for the Dodgers last season, but the former top prospect has looked fantastic of late and may be ready to emerge as an impact starter. However, it may take him a few starts to get stretched out, so be patient. * NBCSPORTS.COM VIDEO: Fantasy Fix Defending Champs Struggling * Unable to stay healthy even while playing almost solely at designated hitter, Mike Sweeney headed to the disabled list Tuesday with a sore right knee. To replace Sweeney on the roster, the Royals recalled top prospect Billy Butler from Triple-A. Butler hit just .243 with a .553 OPS in a 10-game stint in Kansas City earlier this season, but boasts a .954 OPS at Omaha and has been working at first base since being demoted back to the minors in mid-May. Sweeney hit just .245/.307/.407 with seven homers and 31 RBIs in 57 games, so his production shouldn't be especially difficult to replace. Butler may need some time to get rolling, but the 21-year-old is among the elite hitting prospects in all of baseball and figures to eventually find a long-term home in the middle of the Royals' lineup. Assuming the Royals plan to play him more consistently this time around, Butler should have value in AL-only leagues. * One day after Chipper Jones opined that he must be pitching hurt, an MRI on Curt Schilling's sore shoulder reportedly revealed no structural damage. However, quotes from Jones, Schilling, and manager Terry Francona make it clear that something simply isn't right with Schilling and it seems likely that he'll miss at least one start. He's scheduled to pitch Sunday against the Padres, but the Red Sox could instead turn to Devern Hansack while giving Schilling some time off. * Like Schilling and the Red Sox, John Lackey is experiencing shoulder soreness that the Angels hope isn't serious. Lackey complained of tightness in his shoulder last week and had a rough outing Monday against the Astros, leading to a trip to see Dr. Lewis Yocum. Assuming Lackey needs some time off without a trip to the disabled list being necessary, the Angels could use Thursday's off day to push his next scheduled start back from Sunday to Tuesday. Stay tuned. * Lackey's injury comes at a bad time for the Angels, because Bartolo Colon was knocked around again Tuesday. Colon was fantastic upon returning from the disabled list in April, going 5-0 with a 3.69 ERA in his first six starts. However, since then he's complained of triceps soreness while going 1-3 with a 9.79 ERA, allowing opponents to hit .387 with a 1.150 OPS. With Lackey and Colon question marks, both Dustin Moseley and Joe Saunders may be needed in the rotation. AL Quick Hits: Mark Teixeira (quadriceps) indicated Tuesday that he's nowhere close to returning Jermaine Dye plans to play through a quadriceps injury, saying Tuesday that he's "going to play until it blows" Meanwhile, a stiff back kept Jim Thome out of Tuesday's lineup and is worth keeping an eye on Previously untouchable, Al Reyes blew his first save Tuesday by serving up a pair of two-run homers Jake Westbrook (oblique) is scheduled to return from the disabled list Sunday against the Nationals Casey Kotchman (concussion) is aiming for a Friday return Interim manager Dave Trembley gave Corey Patterson a nice fantasy boost Tuesday by moving him into the No. 2 spot in the lineup Sean Casey homered Tuesday for the first time in 211 at-bats dating back to the World Series On the same day that I recommended him to Rotoworld football guru Gregg Rosenthal, Dustin McGowan got lit up for six runs in 1.2 innings Johan Santana tossing a complete-game shutout Tuesday wasn't shocking, but the way he shut down the Mets was very surprising. NL Quick Hits: With Brad Lidge (oblique) landing on the disabled list Tuesday, Dan Wheeler is closing again in Houston Dontrelle Willis left Tuesday's game with forearm tightness, but said afterward that he hopes to make his next start After taking batting practice Tuesday, Aramis Ramirez (foot) is on track to return from the DL when eligible Friday Tom Gorzelanny continues to pitch well, but threw 123 pitches Tuesday and has logged at least 110 pitches in five of his last seven starts Andruw Jones extended his hitless streak to 18 at-bats by going 0-for-4 Tuesday and is 10-for-76 (.131) this month Making his first start since admitting to shoulder soreness, Jason Jennings allowed five runs on 11 hits in 5.2 innings against the Angels Edgar Renteria stayed on the bench following Tuesday's rain delay because of back soreness Hunter Pence is batting .344 after going 3-for-5 with a homer Tuesday, but his 38-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests that some problems could be on the horizon Back stiffness will delay Eddie Guardado's (elbow) return from Tommy John surgery Daily Dose's favorite pitching prospect, Tim Lincecum, has a 10.61 ERA since putting together three strong outings to end May and the Giants may skip his next turn in the rotation. |
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06-21-07, 03:00 PM
| #206 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Ready to give up? Hold on! Every year I'm amazed at the number of fantasy owners who seem to be willing to give up on their teams early in the season. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws In rotisserie and points leagues, we haven't even reached the midway point, so at least theoretically the damage done in the first half can be undone in the second. In head-to-head leagues, it only takes a small winning streak to shake up the standings. But for some reason, certain people prefer to see the glass half empty rather than half full. Perhaps our attention spans aren't what they used to be. The prospect of keeping up with a mediocre team for another 3½ months may not be too appealing. Or perhaps a long list of injured players has made any kind of a comeback next to impossible. We'll start to hear more and more as the season progresses that owners in keeper leagues have no other choice but to "play for next year." This can lead to a vicious cycle of tearing teams down and rebuilding them. Established players are dealt for prospects in hopes of stockpiling young talent for next season. Yet those same owners making those moves are also the most likely to be impatient with the youngsters they've acquired. So when the prospects struggle to adjust to the majors, they set in motion another disappointing start for the owner who acquired them in hopes of "rebuilding." So what to do? For a change, put your team in overdrive instead of reverse. There's a theory that the more trades you make, the better chance you have of assembling a championship team. Even if some of the trades don't work out in your favor, the ones that do will give you an opportunity for improvement. As Yogi Berra is credited with saying about playing golf, "Ninety percent of putts that are hit short don't go in." The same theory can be applied to fantasy baseball: You can't win your league if you don't give yourself a chance. Putting theory into practice Jonah Keri believes more is better when it comes to trading. Keri, the defending AL champion in Sports Weekly's Leagues of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), has already made five trades this season in the AL and four more in the NL. All that wheeling and dealing isn't being done out of necessity because he drafted poorly. Instead, it's because he's always looking for ways to improve his team. His key to doing so is to keep making offers until you find someone who's willing to deal. "After a while, you can develop a comfort zone with two or three owners in your league," Keri says. "I'll often end up making more than one deal with the same owner in the same season, just because we've established some chemistry and figured out what each other wants." Of course it helps to have talent to sell. Keri was confident enough in his negotiating skills that in this year's NL LABR draft, he and co-owner Derek Zumsteg took three shortstops Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Bill Hall. Just a few weeks into the season, he was able to trade Ramirez and address his team's need for more power. Now, he's solidly in fourth place. Picking the right trading partner is also important. "It seems obvious, but too many fantasy players worry only about their own clubs when pitching trade offers," Keri says. "If you have excess saves and need a bat, scan the standings for a team that's at the bottom of the heap in saves and near the top in most offensive categories." Keri was a part of LABR's most memorable trade so far this season when he acquired Felix Hernandez just hours after an elbow injury cut short his third start of the season. It's been almost two months since Keri gave up Tim Wakefield and Vicente Padilla for King Felix as part of a six-player trade. At the time he was in sixth place with 64.5 points. As it turns out, the acquisition of Hernandez hasn't yet catapulted Keri's AL team up the standings. As the week began, he was down to eighth place with 59 points. Still, he says it's important not to let a trade that perhaps doesn't work out keep you from making the next one. "I've made plenty of bad trades, of course everyone does," Keri says. "But if you're scared going into trade talks, you're never going to be able to pull the trigger." The key to any deal is to trust your instincts and your analysis. If a trade backfires, Keri suggests going back and looking at why it did. "Bad trades hurt," he says. "But if you're paying attention, they can always help you make smarter deals in the future." |
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06-21-07, 03:01 PM
| #207 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Bad Shoulders Abound There's a ton of stuff to get to todayincluding all sorts of shoulder injuries knocking out star pitchers in both leaguesso let's skip the usual pleasantries and get right to the notes from around baseball * As expected, the Dodgers received very bad news on Jason Schmidt's shoulder once he went under the knife Wednesday. Schmidt underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, inflamed bursa, and frayed biceps tendon, all of which is about as bad as it sounds. He'll miss the remainder of this season and is far from guaranteed to be at full strength next spring. In fact, the odds are heavily against Schmidt regaining his past dominance at any point in 2008, if at all. Chad Billingsley will replace Schmidt in the Dodgers' rotation and could have value in mixed leagues once he builds back his stamina after spending the first 70 games of the season working solely out of the bullpen. At the very least, Billingsley's short-term value in NL-only leagues receives a huge boost. In the long term, there's a solid chance that Billingsley will have established himself as one of the NL's top young starters by the time Schmidt returns. * If the whole baseball thing doesn't work out for Chipper Jones, perhaps he has a future as a doctor. While an MRI on Curt Schilling's injured shoulder showed no structural damage earlier this week, he received a cortisone shot and was placed on the disabled list Wednesday. With Schilling out for at least two weeks and an off day Thursday, Josh Beckett and Julian Tavarez will each move up one day for their next turn in the rotation. That leaves the Red Sox without a starter for Tuesday's game against the Mariners. Jon Lester is seemingly the obvious choice to step into the rotation, but the Red Sox have avoided laying out their plans yet. Kason Gabbard and Devern Hansack have been mentioned as other options, although not turning to Lester at this point would be stretching the limits of "cautious" and "patient" given his clean bill of health and 2.49 ERA in nine starts at Triple-A. * The Pirates are on their way to a 15th straight losing season, but may have reached a new low point Wednesday. Jeff Weaver took the mound against them armed with a 0-6 record and ghastly 10.97 ERA, yet somehow managed to toss a complete-game, four-hit shutout. Weaver had allowed hitters to go 62-for-150 against him coming into the game, which works out to a ridiculous .413 batting average, but the Pirates went just 4-for-30 (.133). Thankfully, a shoulder injury will keep the Pirates from having to face Jered Weaver next week. The Weaver brother with a non-hideous ERA has been scratched from his scheduled start Friday after injuring his shoulder while sliding into second base Saturday against the Dodgers. Instead of facing the possibility of being shut down by another Weaver, the Pirates will try their luck against Joe Saunders, who'll be recalled from Triple-A to make the fill-in start. With Weaver hurting, Bartolo Colon struggling (and possibly hurting), and John Lackey's status still somewhat uncertain because of his own shoulder problems, the Angels' rotation is in a major state of flux. Manager Mike Scioscia indicated Wednesday that the team hopes Weaver can avoid the disabled list and it now sounds like Lackey will be able to do the same, although his scheduled start Sunday may have to be pushed back a day or two. * Hit on the left wrist by a pitch in the eighth inning Wednesday, Miguel Tejada stayed in long enough to score before heading to the hospital to have tests run. X-rays came back negative, but the Orioles are awaiting further test results to make sure there are no hairline fractures. "I feel like everything is fine, but I am worried," Tejada said. "If it's not broken, I'll play." Tejada has been at shortstop for 609 of 630 innings this season and has played in 1,043 straight games. * It took a whileand his fantasy owners may chose to word "a while" differentlybut Alex Gordon is finally showing why he was the near-consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the season. Gordon didn't clear the Mendoza Line until the Royals' 67th game, but he's hitting .404 with a 1.038 OPS over the past two weeks, bringing his batting average from .172 to .228 over that span. Along with four hits Wednesday, Gordon also stole his seventh base. AL Quick Hits: If Johnny Damon's start in center field Thursday doesn't go well, manager Joe Torre indicated that he could be headed to the disabled list Eric Chavez may be looking at more time off after aggravating his rib-cage injury Wednesday Joe Mauer showed Wednesday that his quadriceps injury is healed by swiping his fourth base Jim Thome (back) hopes to return Friday after sitting out back-to-back games Despite mercifully getting Scott Elarton (foot) out of the rotation, the Royals won't be moving Zack Greinke from the bullpen Casey Kotchman (concussion) is now hoping to return Saturday at the earliest Octavio Dotel blew his first save in seven chances, coughing up a one-run lead Wednesday Despite Carl Crawford getting Wednesday off, Elijah Dukes sat for the eighth straight game Rich Harden (shoulder) is on track to return Friday and will work as a reliever initially It wasn't at Wrigley Field, but Sammy Sosa fittingly smacked his 600th career homer Wednesday against the Cubs. NL Quick Hits: Chris Carpenter (elbow) threw a 50-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, with manager Tony LaRussa saying that "he's just feeling good and he's had no setbacks" As if ongoing hand problems weren't enough, Chipper Jones might miss some time after injuring his groin Wednesday Manager Bob Melvin said Wednesday that Randy Johnson (back) "looked good" while throwing from flat ground Tim Lincecum will start Monday against the Padres after the Giants decided not to skip his turn in the rotation J.J. Hardy left Wednesday's game with back tightness, but isn't expected to miss any additional time Making his first post-Michael Barrett start Wednesday, Koyie Hill smacked his first homer Scheduled to undergo exploratory shoulder surgery, Anibal Sanchez is likely done for the year Despite spraining his ankle in a rough outing Wednesday, Jon Lieber said afterward that he hopes to make his next start Out since last Thursday, Kevin Kouzmanoff (back) was available off the bench Wednesday. |
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06-22-07, 03:23 PM
| #208 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Francis Coming Into His Own The movie I was referring to last week with the "Ain't it cool" quote: Broken Arrow from 1996. Travolta. Slater. Delroy Lindo. Howie Long. Does it get any better? Thanks to all who wrote in. Many mistakenly identified the movie as 1997's Face/Off. In my opinion Face/Off had more camp value. Travolta as Sean Archer: "When we put this thing away, you can brand the fourth amendment on my butt." Cage as Castor Troy: "It's like looking in a mirror, only, not." Has an action movie ever had a more absurd premise? And while we're on the topic of "bad" action movies, I have to recommend 1987's Robocop. I'm not kidding. I evangelize Robocop to everyone I know. It's my favorite movie. The '87 original was not a kid's movie, and there was a lot more to it than the basic silly premise. Some hilarious satire going on. I seriously love that movie and Kurtwood Smith (Red from That's 70's Show) had the best villain performance I have ever seen. You can buy it for like $5. It will probably hold up as my best recommendation of the year. With that said, let's talk baseball. American League Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL The last time I discussed Jeremy Guthrie (June 1), I liked him but didn't recommend him in mixed leagues. Four dominant starts later, I'm definitely on board in all leagues. I know the recommendation comes too late. Nonetheless, after watching Guthrie pump 98 mph gas against the Padres on Wednesday, I'm sold. Maybe the radar gun was a little off but he was bringing it. His strikeout rate will rise. AL: $20, Mixed: $10. Jon Lester, SP, BOS There's a chance Lester starts Wednesday against Seattle in place of the injured Curt Schilling. At present, there are questions about Lester's stamina. Plus, his 5.8 K/9 in Triple A indicates he's not quite himself yet. I can see the Red Sox keeping him down in the minors. If they do call him up, I wouldn't activate him. AL: No, Mixed: No. Alex Cora, 2B/SS, BOS Cora could begin to supplant Julio Lugo at shortstop if Lugo keeps flailing at the plate. Cora's been hitting a lot of line drives this year and could be worthy of your MI slot in AL-only. AL: $2, Mixed: No. Milton Bradley, OF, FA Bradley was surprisingly designated for assignment yesterday against the A's. Bradley is seemingly never healthy, but at this moment he's able to take the field. A team looking for a center fielder, like the Marlins, may send a bucket of baseballs to the A's for Bradley. Failing that, they can throw in six or seven batting gloves. Bradley is a guy who's effective when on the field, so pick him up in the short term. AL: $10, Mixed: $1. Billy Buckner, SP, KCA **DEEP SLEEPER OF THE WEEK** While seen as a stretch, 23-year-old righty Bucker (no, not that Bill Buckner) could start Monday or Tuesday as Scott Elarton's replacement. Buckner has a low-90s heater, a sweet knuckle curve, and groundball tendencies. With a 3.3 K/BB in Triple A, his command has been strong. Buckner is a sleeper in deep AL-only leagues. AL: $1, Mixed: No. Billy Butler, OF, KCA Butler has been mashing at Triple A pretty consistently this year, with an unspectacular big league stint mixed in. Now he's back, ready to DH and play some first base. He remains a very solid AL-only pickup and keeper. Look for an average around .290 with 15 HR type power as a rookie. AL: $12, Mixed: $2. Joe Saunders, SP, LAA With Jered Weaver scratched for today, Saunders will step in against the Pirates. Given that it's the Bucs, Saunders makes for a fine spot start in any league. In fact, I'm going to pick him up in my office league right now. You can wait. [Long pause.] Done. Saunders has been hittable in Triple A, but I'll take my chances with the Pirates. Jeff Weaver shut them out. By the way, last night's start by Felix was good to see but I'm not at all convinced he's back. I will be if he shuts down the Red Sox. AL: $3, Mixed: No. Terry Evans, OF, LAA Evans was picked up by the Angels for Jeff Weaver in the midst of a breakout season. He continued his power display in Triple A this year and earned a call-up. Evans should spend some time at DH with Garrett Anderson out three or four weeks. He can be picked up in AL-only in the short term. AL: $2, Mixed: No. Jeff Cirillo, 3B, MIN - According to Ron Gardenhire, Cirillo is going to get most of the starts at third base. Cirillo has almost no hint of power at this point and he doesn't contribute in fantasy. AL: No, Mixed: No. Kei Igawa, SP, NYA Igawa will rejoin the rotation to start today against the Giants. Make no mistake, this was a bad signing by the Yankees from Day 1. But Igawa looked good while retooling in Triple A and could supply league average pitching. AL: $5, Mixed: No. Kurt Suzuki, C, OAK Suzuki is one of the better catching prospects in baseball. He's got a line drive swing and should post a decent OBP. However, he's a long shot to provide power in his first few seasons. He's up to take some of the load off Jason Kendall before he takes over as the 2008 starter. AL: $1, Mixed: No. Ryan Feierabend, SP, SEA Feierabend steps into the rotation in place of the uninspiring Cha Seung Baek. The lefty is known for his command, circle changeup, and pickoff move. An ERA under 5 would be deemed success; you should probably pass on the rookie. AL: No, Mixed: No. National League Wilfredo Ledezma, RP, ATL Ledezma is a 26-year-old southpaw and former Rule V pick. He's got a good curve and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Braves use him as a starter. NL: $1, Mixed: No. Rob Bowen, C, CHN Bowen seems like the new Cubs starting catcher, at least until Henry Blanco returns. And there's no target date on that. Bowen is speedy for his position and a switch-hitter. Given that his last two teams picked him up off waivers, I'm a little skeptical that Bowen can hit enough for full-time duty. NL: $5, Mixed: No. Carlos Marmol, RP, CHN Marmol looks like the heir apparent to the Cubs' closer role, if Ryan Dempster falters or is moved to the rotation. He's quietly been untouchable as a reliever this year. Ryan Dempster is doing fine right now, but it would not be surprising if Marmol supplants the oft-injured Angel Guzman as the Cubs' Closer Of The Future. In the meantime, he's worth rostering for the Ks. NL: $7, Mixed: No. Jeff Francis, SP, COL Francis is showing the best control of his young career, and he might be able to improve upon last year's very respectable 4.16 ERA. In his last two starts, he beat the Red Sox and the Yankees. Francis doesn't throw hard, but he changes speeds and keeps hitters off balance. He should be owned in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. NL: $18, Mixed: $9. Brett Carroll, OF, FLA Carroll, a 24-year-old outfielder in the Eric Byrnes mold, deserves an extended look in center field for the Fish. According to Baseball America, Carroll's throwing arm is "becoming the stuff of legend." He hit a solid .302/.341/.548 in Triple A and could play regularly. Worth a bench spot in NL-only. NL: $2, Mixed: No. Dan Wheeler, RP, HOU It's Wheeler Time once again as Brad Lidge hit the disabled list. I know Wheeler has been frustrating with his 5.85 ERA, but he's really been better than that. His strikeout rate is a career best, he's not walking anyone, and he's been fairly tough to hit. He's been a little homer happy but overall he's a solid mid-tier closer. NL: $16, Mixed: $8. Chad Billingsley, SP, LAN Billingsley has replaced Jason Schmidt in the Dodgers' rotation. He was dominant in relief, and looks to carry that success over to starting. I think he will, if he keeps his walk rate reasonable. He's got an ace repertoire and makes a fine post-hype sleeper. Never mind his short outing last night Grady Little had him on a pitch count of 70. NL: $11, Mixed: $3. Michael Barrett, C, SDN Barrett's value takes a hit as he moves to PETCO. He's got an above-average backup in Josh Bard, so playing time could be reduced. Despite that, I think one Barrett settles in he'll start showing the .300-20 HR potential he's had for the last few years. This may be a good buy low opportunity. NL: $18, Mixed: $9. Tomo Ohka, SP, STL Ohka signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals, and he has one more start for Memphis before a decision is made. Those desperate for a possible innings-eater in NL-only can take a look. The NL Central is a lot easier than the AL East. NL: $2, Mixed: No. Ryan Ludwick, OF, STL Ludwick has four homers in just 33 at-bats this month. That'll turn heads in any fantasy league. The 29 year-old has shown good pop in Triple A and could be a late bloomer like Jack Cust or Marcus Thames. It'd be better if Ludwick drew walks though. Nonetheless Ludwick could be a 20 HR type bat over a full season, so pick him up in NL-only. NL: $6, Mixed: No. Anthony Reyes, SP, STL Reyes did fine in his three starts at Triple A, so he's back in the Cardinals' rotation. He's a guy I normally would recommend, as his peripheral stats look better than his ERA. However, in this case, I remain skeptical. Call it instinct. He should be owned in NL-only, but needs to string together a solid month before mixed leaguers should pay attention. NL: $5, Mixed: No. |
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06-22-07, 03:27 PM
| #209 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Bullpen Report: Week 12 Almost as predictable as death and taxes, baseball trade rumors swirling in late June signals the begging of pennant races throughout the league. The trade deadline will decide who is making a run at a title and who is looking towards the future, and a good fantasy owner will understand the implication of these decisions. How a struggling club looks at the remainder of the season will often manifest itself in situations where there is no clear-cut closer, eventually leading to the club looking at a younger, more long-term option. In situations where a club is making a push, mediocre closers may not be tolerated and could be moved to setup roles due to the acquisition of a better option. With the contenders beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders, I'll keep an eye on possible trades in this week's column. All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, Co-Closer or DL. Arizona Diamondbacks Closer: Jose Valverde (Locked In) Key setup men: Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten Valverde had another solid week, throwing three scoreless innings and picking up a pair of saves. With his ERA back down to 3.00 to go with 23 saves, he's a better sell-high candidate than before. Pena has picked it up of late, lowering his ERA to 2.27 to go with an improved 28/12 K/BB ratio. If he can keep his pitches around the strike zone, he's got above average closer potential. Atlanta Braves Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Tyler Yates, Wilfredo Ledezma Wickman hasn't matched his excellent performances of the past two seasons, but his 3.52 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 12 saves is about what owners should have expected when drafting the 38-year-old this winter. He's likely to remain a solid option when healthy, but that's not a given either. A Wickman injury would likely lead to Soriano moving into the closer's role and the club looking to acquire a quality setup man, rather than keeping Soriano in the eighth and trading for a closer. Baltimore Orioles Closer: Chris Ray (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Williamson, Chad Bradford, Danys Baez (Injured), Jamie Walker Ray's ERA keeps going up, but his peripherals still say it's mostly luck. His 31/12 K/BB ratio suggests an ERA around 3.00. That he's allowed 28 hits in 33 1/3 innings isn't great, but only three of them have been long balls and the big picture still suggests an ERA well below its current 4.59 level. He's still one of the better buy-low options out there. With Baez injured and Williamson struggling, the club doesn't have a strong option should Ray go down. Prospect James Hoey could be the choice, but he's struggled some in Triple-A and his lone outing in the majors this year didn't go so well. However, with Ray not likely to lose his job or get hurt, it's not a situation that's worth chasing right now. Boston Red Sox Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In) Key setup men: Hideki Okajima, Brendan Donnelly (Injured), Javier Lopez, Joel Pineiro With two more scoreless innings of work this past week, Papelbon's ERA is down to 1.78. The brief shoulder issue that dogged him earlier in the year doesn't look like much of a concern now. It's possible it'll pop up again later in the year, but there's no reason to sell Papelbon at a discount. Chicago Cubs Closer: Ryan Dempster (Shaky) Key setup men: Angel Guzman (DL), Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Mike Wuertz If the Cubs are truly set on removing Dempster from the closer's role, he should start to hear the footsteps behind him. While the team's preferred choice, Guzman, is on the disabled list, another young arm with promise has risen to the challenge. Marmol, a hard throwing right-hander with a plus curve, has a 23/6 K/BB ratio to go with a 1.02 ERA in 17 2/3 innings of work since being promoted. He fits the bill as a potential closer, and if the Cubs start looking to the future Marmol could get the nod. He's worth buying now on the cheap, as he has the potential to grab the reigns and run with it for a few years. It's far from a lock that he'll take over and Dempster has done nothing to deserve the demotion, but Marmol is worth speculating on. Dempster has another year on his contract, but the possibility that he's dealt this July increases Marmol's value. Chicago White Sox Closer: Bobby Jenks (Locked In) Key setup men: Matt Thornton, Mike MacDougal, David Aardsma, Nick Masset Although it's no fault of his own, Jenks is going to see his value drop with the White Sox all but out of playoff contention. With the team considering selling off pieces, there's going to be less save opportunities to go around. Throw in that the club's middle relief still has a lot to prove and Jenks isn't one of the safer bets to stay healthy, and there are plenty of reasons to sell-high on the right-hander. The club recalled MacDougal and Aardsma after purging their bullpen earlier in the month, but both are behind Thornton now to serve as Jenks' backup. It'd be surprising if that changed the rest of the season, as Thornton clearly has manager Ozzie Guillen's trust. Cincinnati Reds Closer: David Weathers (Secure) Key setup men: Eddie Guardado (DL), Mike Stanton (DL), Jon Coutlangus, Victor Santos After a rough patch in late May and early June, Weathers has contributed five straight scoreless appearances to get his ERA back down to 3.00. Guardado has pitched reasonably well in the minors on his rehab assignment, but he was shut down due to back stiffness this week. It will probably only push his return off another week, but it's a good reminder that the 36-year-old Guardado is by no means a lock to remain healthy. Add in that the list of pitchers who are effective within 18 months of undergoing Tommy John surgery is short and I'm betting against second half value for the left-hander. Cleveland Indians Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure) Key setup men: Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Roberto Hernandez Borowski pitched just twice this week, making a two-run game against the Marlins interesting and converting a second save without incident. Against the Marlins, Borowski gave up one run and put the tying run on base, but pitched out of the jam and recorded the save anyway. The club seems likely to check in on Chad Cordero and any other quality closers that become available, meaning Borowski is fine to trade now if you can get close to full value. Betancourt remains next in line and a quality option, but Perez has quickly moved to third in line and is well worth using in AL-only leagues. Colorado Rockies Closer: Brian Fuentes (Locked In) Key setup men: Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins, Jorge Julio The Rockies have gone on a roll, taking 5-of-6 games from the Red Sox and Yankees and moving within just 3 ½ games of the lead in the crowded NL West. Since the Rockies have sniffed September contention so rarely, general manager Dan O'Dowd may look to build goodwill with the fans and the club's owners and not sell off his attractive parts. I think it makes more sense for the club to trade their attractive commodities, since they're more likely to make some noise in 2008-2010. However, it is a tough decision for O'Dowd, and even a wild card birth could help to infuse some interest in the Colorado area. The big loser there would be Corpas, who has closer potential and would take over if Fuentes were dealt. On the plus die, the development gives Fuentes more job security, as he wasn't a lock to be closing at a new destination. It's still a situation well worth monitoring and I wouldn't drop Corpas until the deadline passes, but he's looking less likely to take over as closer than he did a month ago. Detroit Tigers Closer: Todd Jones (Secure) Key setup men: Joel Zumaya (DL), Fernando Rodney, Macay McBride Jones appeared in five games this week, but he gave up three runs in a non-save situation in one of the outings and he managed to pick up just one save. Jones' ERA stands at an ugly 5.65, but he's not in any danger with Zumaya out until August and Rodney struggling in a setup role. It's more likely that the club trades for a closer than it is them turning to Rodney for the remainder of the season. Florida Marlins Closer: Kevin Gregg (Shaky) Key setup men: Armando Benitez, Henry Owens (DL), Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom Gregg hasn't been as consistent in the closer's role as he was a setup man, yielding five runs over his last five innings of work. Three of those runs came in a game the Marlins were already losing, but the other two came in games where the club ended up winning by just a run. It's not enough to remove him as the team's closer just yet, but a few more outings might do the trick. That Benitez has given up just two runs in nine innings as a Marlin increases those odds. Houston Astros Closer: Dan Wheeler (Filling-In), Brad Lidge (Injured) Key setup men: Chad Qualls, Dave Borkowski Lidge went on the disabled list on Wednesday with a strained oblique muscle. He'll be out at least two weeks, with Wheeler taking over again in the interim. Lidge will be given every chance to take back the closing duties when he's healthy, and the club didn't look like they were easing him back into the role as had been previously stated. Wheeler is worth using for the next few weeks, but it's Lidge's job when he's back. Both could be trade candidates next month. Kansas City Royals Closer: Octavio Dotel (Secure) Key setup men: Zach Greinke, Joakim Soria, Joel Peralta, David Riske Dotel has proved a steady option as the Royals' closer thus far, picking up six saves and a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings of work. Manager Bubby Bell anointed Greinke next in line, but he's been just as inconsistent in the bullpen and he's not a good choice as a closer at the moment. The club may still give him a chance, but I'd expect Soria to pick up more saves than Greinke if Dotel is dealt or injured. Los Angeles Angels Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In) Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier (DL), Darren Oliver, Dustin Moseley Speier was supposed to return from an intestinal infection by now, but it acted up again and he's now out until the second half. Since it's quite possible he won't be at full strength when he returns, he doesn't need to be held on to in AL-only leagues if you're in a roster crunch. Los Angeles Dodgers Closer: Takashi Saito (Locked In) Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Yhency Brazoban (DL), Chin-Hui Tsao (DL) Broxton has rebounded from some poor outings in late May and early June, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings over his last six appearances. Saito has been as effective as ever, recording a 1.55 ERA and a ridiculous 37/3 K/BB ratio in 29 innings of work. Milwaukee Brewers Closer: Francisco Cordero (Locked In) Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva Cordero finally had a few rough outings by giving up seven runs over four outings two weeks ago, but he's bounced back with three straight scoreless outings in save situations. After some rough outings in May Turnbow has also turned it around, giving up just one hit and no runs in his last seven innings of work. He's next in line. Minnesota Twins Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In) Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier Rincon struggled this past week, surrendering seven runs six earned over his last two innings of work. It's not much of a long-term concern, but should the struggles continue Neshek would move to next in line. New York Mets Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In) Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano Wagner appeared in two games this week, throwing two scoreless innings and picking up a save. Heilman hasn't been as good as expected, but he's still next in line. While Smith has been more effective, his sidearm delivery profiles better in a setup role. New York Yankees Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In) Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Brian Bruney It wasn't a particularly strong week for Rivera, who pitched just once and gave up two runs in a non-save situation against the Mets. In that inning, Rivera allowed five hits to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. Rivera eventually retired Carlos Beltran to end the rally, but fantasy owners are left with a disappointing week. Rivera had gone nine outings without allowing a run prior to this one, so it shouldn't be of any long-term consequence. I still like the idea of acquiring Rivera if it can be done at a discount. Oakland Athletics Closer: Huston Street (Injured), Justin Duchscherer (Injured), Alan Embree (Filling-in) Key setup men: Santiago Casilla, Kiko Calero Street has been sidelined for over a month due to irritation in his right ulnar nerve, and although he's experienced a setback, a second doctor confirmed that there was no structural damage. He's at least two weeks away from returning, but owners will gladly trade the extra two weeks off for a second opinion that doesn't involve surgery. He may not move directly into the closer's role upon returning, but it shouldn't be more than a week or so once he's done with his rehab assignment. Duchscherer is going to rest some more and could be back in two weeks. If the rest doesn't do his hip any good, season-ending surgery is likely. Since Street could easily beat him back, it's unlikely that Duchscherer picks up any more saves as an interim closer. Embree continues to do a surprisingly quality job as the team's closer. While Casilla is the exciting young option with future closer potential, Embree will continue to close for the next few weeks. Philadelphia Phillies Closer: Tom Gordon (Injured), Brett Myers (Injured), Antonio Alfonseca (Filling-in) Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary It's pretty surprising that Alfonseca has continued to contribute, but he's still blown just one save as the Phillies' closer. He did give up two runs spread over a pair of outings in non-save situations this past week, but he remains the club's short-term option. Gordon's rehab is going well and he's expected back from the disabled list within a week. Myers hasn't started his rehab assignment yet and is at least two weeks away, so Gordon should move back into the closer's role and get a few save opportunities. However, once Myers is back, it's going to be his job again. Pittsburgh Pirates Closer: Matt Capps (Locked In) Key setup men: Salomon Torres (DL), Damaso Marte Capps put five men on base and allowed three runs one earned over two appearances this week, but he still managed to pick up a pair of saves. He hasn't been as dominant as a closer as he was as a setup man, but he's done nothing to suggest the club is looking for a replacement. Torres' elbow acted up again this past week, and he's now at least another two weeks from returning to a setup role. San Diego Padres Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In) Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell, Kevin Cameron In Hoffman, Linebrink, Bell, Cameron, and Justin Hampson, the Padres have five relievers with an ERA below 2.10. Meredith and Doug Brocail also have ERAs under 4.00, giving the Padres a major league best 2.43 bullpen ERA. Only the Red Sox, at 2.95, are within a run of the Padres. The club clearly has a knack for finding undervalued bullpen talent, and their entire bullpen is worth a look in deeper NL-only formats. San Francisco Giants Closer: Brad Hennessey (Secure) Key setup men: Kevin Correia, Randy Messenger, Jonathan Sanchez Hennessey pitched just once this week, recording a scoreless inning in a non-save situation against the Red Sox. Both Messenger and Correia continue to pitch well in setup roles, though Correia is currently ahead as Hennessey's backup. Seattle Mariners Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In) Key setup men: Brandon Morrow, Chris Reitsma (DL), Eric O'Flaherty Putz had just three saves in April, but he's recorded 17 since and is now tied for second in the American League. Morrow's command was an issue even when he was getting results, but it's been worse as he's yielded six runs over his last four outings. The right-hander now has an odd 26/27 K/BB ratio in 25 2/3 innings of work. It's possible the Mariners will send him down to the minors if he has another poor outing or two. His future should be in the rotation anyway, though he'll probably remain a reliever for the rest of the season. St. Louis Cardinals Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In) Key setup men: Ryan Franklin, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer Isringhausen didn't pick up a save this week, but he did throw four scoreless innings of work while striking out three. Franklin appeared in five games this week, throwing a total of 5 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out none and issuing no free passes. The right-hander has just 12 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings of work this year, but that he's walked only three batters leaves him with a 1.57 ERA. He's still next in line. Tampa Bay Devil Rays Closer: Al Reyes (Secure) Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Gary Glover, Shawn Camp Reyes had his worst week of the season this past week, giving up four runs and blowing a save in one outing and yielding three runs one earned while retiring just one batter in a non-save situation. In the blown save, Reyes entered in the ninth inning with a two-run lead and surrendered a two-run blast to Tony Clark to tie the game. He stayed in for the 10th inning, and then yielded a walk-off two-run homer to Chris Young. Despite the pair of rough outings, Reyes' ERA is still a fine 3.26 and his WHIP remains below 1.00. He's in no danger of losing his job as the Devil Rays' closer, and he remains likely to be dealt next month. Texas Rangers Closer: Eric Gagne (Secure) Key setup men: Akinori Otsuka, Frank Francisco, Wes Littleton Despite decreased velocity on his fastball, Gagne continues to impress by allowing just one run in 15 2/3 innings since returning from the disabled list. While his command wasn't great initially, he's walked just one batter in his last six outings. That he's still striking batters out (19 in 19 innings of work) means he could very well continue to be a quality option, and it's going to make him very attractive to contending teams. It has been reported that Gagne could be traded to the Mets, Yankees, or Angels without permission, though all three seem unlikely and each move would destroy Gagne's fantasy value. It's more likely that he ends up in Cleveland or Detroit, which should ease the worries of AL-only leaguers a little. Still, since Gagne remains an injury risk and could be dealt to a National League team, he's worth selling if someone wants to give you full value. Toronto Blue Jays Closer: Jeremy Accardo (Secure) Key setup men: Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs Accardo bounced back from a poor week to throw a pair of scoreless innings in non-save situations. Janssen was putting some pressure on Accardo with the two seemingly going in opposite directions, but Janssen gave up six runs in one outing this past week. He remains next in line, but it gives Accardo a little better job security. Washington Nationals Closer: Chad Cordero (Secure) Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Jesus Colome Cordero threw three more scoreless innings this week, further helping his value in trade talks. It'd be a surprise if the Nationals didn't trade him at some point, though general manager Jim Bowden isn't afraid to buck the popular opinion. That the contending teams in the National League are mostly set at closer, it's more likely that Cordero ends up on the Tigers or Indians. It's possible he'll end up in a setup role, but given the price likely needed to acquire the right-hander, a more desperate team is likely to land Cordero. |
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06-22-07, 03:29 PM
| #210 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Roger's Rough Start A 1-2 record and 4.86 ERA is obviously not what the Yankees and fantasy owners expected out of Roger Clemens through three starts and his performance looks even worse once you consider that all three of his outings have come against NL teams. However, the news on Clemens isn't as bad as it seems, beginning with the fact that having a rough time against the suddenly red-hot Rockies at Coors Field is far from catastrophic. Including the rough afternoon in Colorado, Clemens has managed to compile a fantastic 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16.2 innings. Clemens will have no problem improving upon his .279 opponent's batting average if he can continue to miss that many bats, because the Yankees' defense won't allow a .364 batting average on balls put in play over the long haul. Of course, racking up that many strikeouts will prove more difficult against AL lineups. Even factoring in the NL's inferior lineups, he's simply missing too many bats and inducing too many ground balls to have an ERA in the upper 4.00s for long. Clemens' next start will come against Baltimore and I'd bet on a good outing. Not only are the Orioles third-to-last in the AL with 4.4 runs per game, they've hit just .258 with a .383 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. If Clemens' ERA isn't down in the 3.00s within a month, I'll be very surprised. While Clemens keeps looking for career win No. 350 while earning about $18 million per victory so far this season, here are some other notes from around baseball * Just when impatient fantasy owners were ready to give up on him, Felix Hernandez pulled them back in with eight shutout innings Thursday against Pittsburgh. King Felix dominating the Pirates' lineup isn't especially impressive one day after teammate Jeff Weaver tossed a complete-game shutout against them, but Hernandez's nine strikeouts, one walk, and mid-90s fastball velocity were extremely encouraging given his previous struggles since returning from the disabled list. Hernandez's 4.00 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .292 opponent's batting average remain disappointing, but those numbers don't match his 68-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio and figure to drop as he logs more innings. Hernandez continues to miss plenty of bats and induce tons of ground balls, serving up just six homers in 273 plate appearances. Once some choppers and bloopers stop finding holes in the Mariners' defense, his stats should improve dramatically. Be patient. * NBCSPORTS.COM VIDEO: Fantasy Fix Time to Bench Sammy? * One day after being hit on the wrist by a pitch, Miguel Tejada kept his consecutive-games streak alive Thursday by exiting after laying down a bunt in the first inning. However, the Orioles announced afterward that Tejada has a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist. "That means it will heal," team vice president Jim Duquette said. "But if you re-injure it and it becomes a fracture, then the only way to make it heal properly is to put a screw in it." Tejada apparently plans to play through the injury, although it remains to be seen if he'll continue to make cameo appearances for the sole purposes of extending a streak that would become increasingly meaningless. If Tejada is forced to the sidelines for extended period of time, the Orioles will likely go with Chris Gomez and Freddie Bynum at shortstop. Gomez has zero fantasy value under any circumstances, but Bynum has enough speed to be a factor with some at-bats. * Vernon Wells went hitless Thursday and 0-for-14 overall during a three-game series against the Dodgers, dropping his batting average to .244. Equally concerning is that Wells has managed just six homers, 34 RBIs, and a .387 slugging percentage in 68 games after slugging .542 with 32 homers and 106 RBIs last season. Wells has never hit fewer than 20 homers or slugged below .450 in a full season, and don't expect him to do so this year either. Just 5.5 percent of Wells' fly balls have gone for homers thus far, which is an extremely low percentage and far below the 12.5, 12.0, and 14.2 percent rates he posted from 2004-2006. That's a number that tends to even out over the course of a seasonsuddenly a few warning-track outs go an extra five feetwhich means that Wells should have little trouble doing deep far more often down the stretch. He's an excellent buy-low candidate at this point. * The good news is that an MRI on Rocco Baldelli's injured hamstring revealed no tears Thursday. The bad news is that he's still expected to miss another 6-8 weeks following a setback Monday. Between Baldelli's injury, Elijah Dukes' off-field problems, and Carl Crawford's apparent preference for left field, the Devil Rays have gone from seemingly having a glut of potential center fielders to starting a defensively stretched Delmon Young there in eight straight games. AL Quick Hits: General manager Billy Beane sounds confident that he'll find a trade for Milton Bradley, with the San Francisco Chronicle mentioning the Padres and Pirates as possible destinations for the oft-injured outfielder who was designated for assignment Thursday Erik Bedard hopes to make his next start after leaving Thursday's game with a mild hamstring strain Manager Joe Torre said Thursday that he'll watch Johnny Damon (abdomen) for several more days before deciding if a stint on the disabled list is necessary Trade speculation is increasing in Chicago, with the Braves and Mets reportedly interested in Mark Buehrle Making his first (and perhaps last) minor-league rehab start, Nate Robertson (arm) tossed six no-hit innings Thursday at Double-A After going 3-for-4 with a homer Thursday at Triple-A, Scott Podsednik (groin) looks ready to come off the DL Casey Janssen came into Thursday's game with a 0.95 ERA in 38 innings, but left with a 2.37 ERA after giving up six runs without recording an out According to the Tampa Tribune, the Devil Rays "spent Thursday exploring deals for Elijah Dukes." NL Quick Hits: As expected, Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum On a strict pitch count in his first start of the season, Chad Billingsley lasted just 3.2 innings Thursday against the Blue Jays ... Michael Barrett made his Padres debut Thursday, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, one passed ball, and zero dugout fistfights Mike Jacobs (thumb) went 2-for-12 with a homer in his first three minor-league rehab games and could return Friday Kevin Kouzmanoff (back) returned to the lineup Thursday after sitting out six games, meaning Chase Headley could soon be headed back to the minors After lasting just 1.2 innings in Wednesday's start, Hong-Chih Kuo will pitch Sunday against the Devil Rays on three days' rest Lingering elbow pain figures to delay Salomon Torres' comeback until after the All-Star break With two no-hit innings Wednesday, Troy Percival has held opponents to a .133 batting average in four appearances at Triple-A. |
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