Fantasy Baseball News 2008

[Hache Man]

Kemp and Kotchman Take Off!
Kemp and Kotchman on fire, Sheff hurting and much more in this week's Week That Was.

Matt Kemp Matt Kemp continued swinging a hot bat Friday night with four RBI. Thus far, the Dodger OF has over 20 RBI despite, quite remarkably, playing only part time. It is just a matter of time before Joe Torre and the Dodger brass realize that they need to play Kemp everyday no matter how much they are paying Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Call the Kemp owner in your league and tell him how loyal Torre is to veterans and grab Kemp (of course, you should leave out that Torre had the foresight to install Melky Cabrera as the everyday CF last year despite the high salaries of Damon and Matsui).

Gary Sheffield: According to reports, the Tigers are planning to rest Gary Sheffield more often. Probably a good idea as Sheffield is hitting a meager 179. Ok, I know, enough blather . . . you want to know what the future holds for Sheff. Well, watching him play against the Yankees in his former home this week, I have to say that he looked off balance and out of sorts to me. Bottom line: from a fantasy perspective, Sheff is a player to avoid. First, he does not appear healthy. Second, his bat looks slow. Third, given the amount of his pre-swing movement, any slowdown in bat speed will make him even more unlikely to catch up with a good fastball. That he was having trouble catching up to 89mph fastballs this week says it all. No doubt Sheff was a great player. If there is someone in your league who is willing to pay for the past instead of the future, fleece the fool.

Jose Bautista: Pirate 3B Jose Bautista smacked two dingers Friday night in the victory over the Nationals. To say that Jose has been ice cold would be an understatement.
Even with the big night, Jose is hitting a paltry.213 this year. Is this an aberration? Not really. Over the last two years combined, Jose has an average under .250. If you own him, take this opportunity to market him and his alleged breakout – DO IT QUICKLY! – you have a limited window. On the other hand, if you do not own him, keep it that way.

Russell Martin: In what can only be described as odd, bizarre, or just downright dumb, the Dodgers played Russell Martin at 3B last night. Does this mean anything from a fantasy perspective? Answer: Yes. It means that Joe Torre will not let Martin get the rest he needs to stay strong through the whole year. It also means that Martin is even more likely to get hurt than most catchers if he as to play out of position at the hot corner. Bottom line – you should look to deal Martin in August before he starts a statistical slide.

Josh Willingham: Florida had to place Josh Willingham on the DL with what is being described as a lower back problem. Given Willingham's history, this is hardly a surprise. I am a major proponent of avoiding injury prone players in fantasy. While Willingham will put up quality numbers while on the field, players like him will always cost more than they can produce in the 300-400 AB they will likely get. This injury does present a buying opportunity for those in deep NL leagues. The Marlins called up Brett Carroll. This kid looks good. He hit .315 at AAA last year and hitting around .400 there this year. Expect Carroll to be up a lot this year and produce better than expected results at a very small price.

Reggie Willits: The Angels called up Reggie Willits this week. Where he will play is a mystery. However, the fact is that he hit.293 with 27 SB last year. Given that Vlad will need time at DH, Garrett Anderson is injury prone and Gary Matthews is just not that good, Willits should find a way to get enough ABs to be valuable in deep AL leagues.

Randy Wolf: Padre southpaw Randy Wolf mowed down nine in just six innings Thursday night. So far, Wolf has finally looked like the Wolf of old, with a high K rate and an ERA of around 3.50. Frankly, his success does not really surprise me. He has always struck out more than his share but been bitten by the gopher – a problem that will be much less severe in the cavern called Petco. If you can, get Wolf now – he will continue his winning ways in SD.

Kenji Johjima: According to reports, ice cold Kenji Johjima will get a couple of days off. In roto parlance, Kenji is the classic buy low candidate. He is struggling now, but in his prime with two strong years already under his belt. Johjima hit 32 HR and around .290 over the last two years. The same should happen this year. Buy now while you still can get a big discount.

Casey Kotchman: Casey Kotchman had another big night Wednesday, going 3-4, with 3 RBI. Kotchman is hitting over .300 against both lefties and righties. Bottom line – his time has come. With parts of 4 major league seasons already under his belt at the ripe old age of 25, Kotchman is poised for a major breakout. The success you are seeing is evidence of just that. Players that make the majors at 20 when their peers are still in college or single A have a talent well above the pack. That such early risers do not perform up to their ability right away in the Show is predictable. Those who can see that, get major bargains. Kotchman is one such bargain.

Alex Rodriguez: In news that everyone knows, the Yankees placed ARod on the DL with a strained thigh muscle. This is a good thing for ARod owners and the Yankees. Let him heal and he will get back in Mid-May ready to be ARod – a force capable of carrying real and fantasy baseball teams alike. Bottom line – do not panic. By season's end, ARod will have ARod numbers.

And now, next to last, more roto wisdom from Bobby:

Chase-ing the MVP By Bobby Colton

Thus far this season Chase Utley has yet to miss a beat in the Philadelphia Phillies' three-man MVP relay. Two years ago Ryan Howard took home the MVP prize, just one year following his Rookie of the Year campaign. Last season it was Jimmy Rollins' turn to win the MVP. Rollins made very bold statements claiming that his Phillies, not the defending NL East Champs the Mets, were the team to beat that season. Rollins ignited the Phillies' September surge that sent the Mets to an early winter break. Rollins' hardware just added to his spectacular season.

This season the NL East standings are a little out of whack, featuring the abysmal Florida Marlins atop the division while the Phillies, Mets, and Braves all struggle to stay afloat. The Phillies have gotten almost no help from Rollins who went on the DL after injuring his ankle trying to get back to second base on a pickoff attempt. Howard meanwhile, has been struggling to find his swing, batting just .178. He was even benched for two "mental health" days after being just completely ineffective. Howard also has a good shot at breaking his own record for strikeouts, a record that neither the Phillies, nor Howard, is excited about.

While the two former MVPs have been unproductive, Chase Utley has taken the role of team leader. As of Friday morning, Utley ranked 9th in the MLB in RBIs, 5th in runs scored, 5th in average, and was leading the majors in homeruns. Utley's power stroke emerged last season after making the move to the three hole in the order. Unfortunately for Utley, he suffered an injury and missed a month of the season. Utley finished with 22 homers last season. That means that after just the month of April, Utley already has half the homers he hit last season.
It is inevitable that the Florida Marlins will fall out of first place sooner rather than later. If the Phillies take the NL East again, look for Utley to take the MVP award. If the Mets win, David Wright could be poised to grab the MVP honors. If the Braves win the division, Chipper Jones could be the MVP, but that would entail him staying relatively healthy (that's as likely as the Marlins winning the division), the second Brave would be Mark Teixeira. My vote for MVP after April is the Philadelphia second baseman.


And finally, this week's Schultz Says: "It's only the beginning of May and there's more than five months of baseball yet to be played but I'm starting to wonder if it may not be to soon to start worrying about Andruw Jones. In his contract year, Jones responded with his lowest average, home runs and RBI in a decade. Only two seasons removed from a 40 HR season and three away from a 50 HR campaign, there was every reason in the world to think a change of scenery would jolt Andruw back to his former self. Apparently not. 30 games in, his average sits at .161 with 1 HR and 4 RBIs. He should turn it around at some point but he's looked so miserable at the plate I fear it might be too little, too late. If you have him, you can't cut him and no one in their right mind would take him from you. My heart goes out to you cause you're stuck with him.

Moving the pendulum over to the other side, how bout that Max Scherzer? One ridiculously awesome long relief appearance and the kid makes it into the starting rotation. It seems as if the D'Backs aren't going to copy the Joba Rules or do the Braveheart Hold like the Twins did with Johan Santana; they're going to let Scherzer show what he can do. He's scheduled to start against the Phillies on Monday and if he's dominates like he did last Tuesday against Houston (or comes anywhere close), he's not going anywhere for quite some time. If you play in a league of morons and no one has grabbed him yet, remedy that situation immediately.

But before you get all excited about Scherzer, let the ghost of Yovani Gallardo serve as a reminder how tenuous it is to rely on super-young pitchers to anchor your roto-staff. The Brewers 22-year-old ace suffered a torn ACL in his right knee within days of coming off the DL for a torn meniscus in his left knee. While his current year-ending injury came as the result of an unexpected collision, it keeps him from putting up great numbers just as if he blew out his pitching elbow. The potential of young phenom pitchers is too spectacular to ignore and who doesn't drool at the prospect of getting the next Johan Santana for a few years because they nabbed him as a rookie for $1. Remember though, with every reward comes risk and with young pitchers you get lots of risk. See ya next year Yovani.

Response: It would have been much easier for Schultz to just read last week's column and say I was right about Andruw! That said, he is right about relying on young pitchers – it is just as dangerous as relying on old or injury prone hitters. It is a roto no-no.

[Hache Man]

Don't be Gallardowned

Losing Yovani Gallardo is a huge blow for the Brewers and fantasy teams alike. Not only have we lost one of the better pitcher's in the game, we've lost one of the best names. Don't despair - at least this week - there's another uniquely named pitcher that should provide fantasy help this week. Find out who below:

Two-Start Pitchers

American League

Must Start
Daisuke Matsuzaka - @DET (Jeremy Bonderman), @MIN (Kevin Slowey)
Javier Vazquez - @TOR (Dustin McGowan), @SEA (Jarrod Washburn)
Cliff Lee - @NYY (Andy Pettitte), TOR (A.J. Burnett)
Zack Greinke – LAA (Nick Adenhart), BAL (Brian Burres)
Ervin Santana - @KC (Brian Bannister), @TB (Andy Sonnanstine)
A.J. Burnett – CHW (Javier Vazquez), @CLE (Cliff Lee)

Other Options (by team)
Matt Albers* - @OAK (Dana Eveland), @KC (Brian Bannister)
Brian Burres - @OAK (Justin Duchscherer), @KC (Zack Greinke)
Tim Wakefield - @DET (Nate Robertson), @MIN (Nick Blackburn)
Gavin Floyd – MIN (Nick Blackburn), @SEA (Miguel Batista)
Jeremy Bonderman – BOS (Daisuke Matsuzaka), NYY (Darrell Rasner)
Nate Robertson – BOS (Tim Wakefield), NYY (Andy Pettitte)
Brian Bannister – LAA (Ervin Santana), BAL (Matt Albers)
Nick Blackburn - @CHW (Gavin Floyd), BOS (Tim Wakefield)
Andy Pettitte – CLE (Cliff Lee), @DET (Nate Robertson)
Dana Eveland – BAL (Matt Albers), @TEX (Sidney Ponson)
Jarrod Washburn – TEX (Kevin Millwood), CHW (Javier Vazquez)
Miguel Batista – TEX (Sidney Ponson), CHW (Gavin Floyd)
Andy Sonnanstine - @TOR (A.J. Burnett), LAA (Ervin Santana)
Kevin Millwood - @SEA (Jarrod Washburn), OAK (Greg Smith)
Sidney Ponson - @SEA (Miguel Batista), OAK (Dana Eveland)
Dustin McGowan – CHW (Javier Vazquez), @CLE (Fausto Carmona)


National League

Must Start
Ryan Dempster - @CIN (Johnny Cueto), ARI (Randy Johnson)
Oliver Perez - @LAD (Chad Billingsley), CIN (Johnny Cueto)
Jamie Moyer - @ARI (Max Scherzer), @SF (Undecided*)

Other Options

Max Scherzer – PHI (Brett Myers), @CHC (Jason Marquis)
Randy Johnson – PHI (Adam Eaton), @CHC (Ryan Dempster)
Jair Jurrjens – SD (Chris Young), @PIT (Tom Gorzelanny)
Johnny Cueto – CHI (Ryan Dempster), @NYM (Oliver Perez) www.newyorkmets.ws
Ubaldo Jimenez – STL (Joel Pineiro), @SD (Greg Maddux)
Scott Olsen – MIL (Jeff Suppan), @WAS (Shawn Hill)
Shawn Chacon – WAS (Shawn Hill), @LAD (Chad Billingsley)
Chad Billingsley – NYM (Oliver Perez), HOU (Shawn Chacon)
Jeff Suppan - @FLA (Scott Olsen), STL (Braden Looper)
Tom Gorzelanny – SF (Jonathan Sanchez), ATL (Jair Jurrjens)
Chris Young - @ATL (Jair Jurrjens), COL (Mark Redman) www.atlantabraves.ws
Jonathan Sanchez - @PIT (Tom Gorzelanny), PHI (Adam Eaton)
Joel Pineiro - @COL (Ubaldo Jimenez), @MIL (Ben Sheets)
Shawn Hill - @HOU (Shawn Chacon), FLA (Scott Olsen)

Possible Streamers

The following pitchers are available in half of mixed leagues and should make decent starts next week:

American League

Monday, May 5 – Dana Eveland v. BAL – Eveland is sporting a 1.42 ERA at home so far this season, and will face the Orioles on Monday night. A second start in Texas means he's worth using. Beware, he was hit hard in his last start, but he still only gave up two walks.

Tuesday, May 6 – In nine innings against the Athletics last season, Brian Burres allowed just one run and struck out eight. He's had a solid start to the year, and could be a worthy spot starter.

Tuesday, May 6 – In his only start against Toronto this year, Andy Sonnanstine picked up the win while allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays managed just six hits off him, making this rematch worth consideration.

Friday, May 9 – Jose Contreras @ SEA - In twelve innings of work against Seattle last season, Contreras earned a 3.00 ERA while striking out nine and walking just one. It's risky, making it a move for gamblers.

National League

Tuesday May 6 – Jair Jurrjens v. SD – Jurrjens has gotten off to a great start and is slowly be snatched up in fantasy leagues. Next week he has favorable match-ups against the Padres at home and the Pirates. He's worth grabbing if you're hurting from the loss of Gallardo's stats or the unique name.

Tuesday, May 6 – Scott Olsen v. MIL – Streaming a pitcher against Milwaukee isn't the brightest idea, but Olsen shut them out for 7 1/3 last week, and his Sunday matchup against the Nationals makes him a strong option next week.

Tuesday May 6 – Shawn Chacon v. WAS – Streaming Shawn Chacon isn't the brightest idea, but he's gotten off to a great start and the Washington offense provides the opportunity for a solid start.

Tuesday May 6 – What a day for streamers. Jonathan Sanchez has shown plenty of talent this season, and a start against the Pirates shouldn't slow him down. Expect plenty of strikeouts.

Saturday May 10 – Jamie Moyer SF – In his lone start against the Giants last season, Moyer allowed three runs in seven innings, but the Giants hit just .185 off him. Still, it's Jamie Moyer, so only the die-hards are going to want to try this one.


Total Games

American League
7: BAL, BOS, CHW, DET, KC, SEA, TEX, TOR
6: CLE, ANA, MIN, NYY, OAK, TB

National League
7: ARI, COL, PHI, STL
6: ATL, CHI, CIN, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PIT, SD, SF, WAS


Righty vs. Lefty match-ups

American League
Baltimore - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Boston - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Minnesota - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Seattle - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Texas - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Yankees face four left-handed pitchers, which should help Johnny Damon (.305 vs. LHP over last three years),

National League:
Arizona - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Florida - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Houston - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers – 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 2 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties, 1 Undecided
San Diego - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 1 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Washington - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Reds face three lefties, which is good news for Edwin Encarnacion (.267 vs. LHP), Brandon Phillips (.296 vs. LHP) and Jeff Keppinger (.338 vs. LHP). It's could hurt Ryan Freel (.250 vs. LHP) and Scott Hatteberg (.235 vs. LHP).

The Pirates face three lefties, which should help help Xavier Nady (.319 vs LHP over last three years).

The Cardinals face three lefties, suggesting that Rick Ankiel (.304 career vs. LHP) and Yadier Molina (.270 career vs. LHP) will benefit, while Chris Duncan (.199 career vs. LHP), Skip Schumaker (.254 career vs. LHP) and Ryan Ludwick (.214 career vs. LHP) could struggle.

Washington also has three games against lefties next week, which is good news for Ryan Zimmerman (.330 career vs. LHP) and Austin Kearns (.293 career vs. LHP). Christian Guzman (.210 vs. LHP) could struggle.

The Injury Bug

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Howie Kendrick – 2B – Should begin rehab assignment
Rich Harden – SP – Should be back this week
Yovani Gallardo – SP – Out for the season
Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Day-to-day with bruised wrist
Brian Schneider – C – Should be playing by start of week
Jimmy Rollins – SS – Should return by end of week
Jack Wilson – SS – Should return this week
Marlon Byrd – OF – Should return this week
B.J. Upton – OF – Day-to-day with strained shoulder
Scott Kazmir – SP – Will be back by start of week
Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Out for two months with torn quad

Waiver Wired

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired.

AL

1. Jeff Clement
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
3. Nick Adenhart
4. Armando Galarraga
5. Emil Brown

NL

1. Max Scherzer
2. Aaron Cook
3. Jayson Werth
4. Luis Castillo
5. John Lannan

[Hache Man]

AL Team-by-Team Notes
Lyle Overbay keeps getting on base at a nice clip, but he's hit just three homers in 316 at-bats since returning from a broken hamate bone last year. He has a total of four extra-base hits this season, leaving him with a .337 slugging percentage. He's hitting more balls on the ground than ever before, and when he does get it into the air, he's not scorching liners like he used to. The injury Overbay suffered is known for reducing a player's power, but the effect tends to last an additional month or two after the player returns. In this case, it's stretched into the next year, creating doubt about whether he'll ever be the player he was. He looks through as a quality option in mixed leagues at this point. Maybe he'll yet turn it around, but the upside isn't there to make him worth waiting around for.

American League Notes

Baltimore - That the Orioles have boasted such solid results from their pitching staff is the biggest reason they're still over .500 on the season, but it's hard to see it lasting. The group currently has a 168/129 K/BB ratio to go along with a 4.19 ERA. Entering Saturday's game, the Orioles had the third-fewest strikeouts and fourth-most walks in the AL. Jeremy Guthrie, looking very solid once again this year, is the only starter with a 2:1 K/BB ratio. Brian Burres is off to the same kind of fluky start he had last year and is likely to fade just as rapidly. I think Daniel Cabrera has made real progress, but not to the point at which he's close to fulfilling his upside. If Garrett Olson can stick in the rotation over Matt Albers with Adam Loewen sidelined, he'd be an intriguing pickup in AL-only leagues. It was command that held him back after he debuted last year, but he impressed this spring and again in Triple-A last month. He's not worth playing yet, but he'd be nice to have stashed away. … It looked like this might be the week Alex Cintron was called up to help out at shortstop, but he had to go home from Triple-A following a death in his family. There's still a good chance he'll start taking time away from Luis Hernandez soon.

Boston - Jon Lester now has 33 major league starts (and one relief appearance) under his belt, the equivalent of one full season. In 184 career innings, he's allowed 190 hits, walked 97 and struck out 132. He's given up 22 homers. Expectations were that his velocity would improve more now that he's had a full year to recover from chemotherapy, but he's never touched 95 mph in the majors like he did in the minors. He's typically in the 89-92 mph range. His best offering might be his cutter, and his curve is a quality breaking ball. Even without the big-time heat, he looks like a potential No. 2 at times. However, the poor command makes him a No. 4 right now. It doesn't look like the breakthrough is coming, and the Red Sox will be hurting themselves in the short-term if they bypass him and send down Clay Buchholz when Bartolo Colon comes up. It might be the right decision anyway because of the need to monitor Buchholz's innings, but Buchholz is clearly the better pitcher right now. … Mike Lowell is trying to pull absolutely every pitch he sees and still doesn't have an RBI after 50 at-bats this season. Mixed leaguers should be able to do better at third base, at least for this week.

Chicago - Far be it from me to disagree with Joe Morgan, but I don't think Jermaine Dye is in for a great season or even a very good one. He's the White Sox's third-best outfielder both offensively and defensively right now. He does have a solid enough average after 24 games, but it comes with a 21/7 K/BB ratio. His power numbers are also rather unimpressive, mostly because he's hitting the ball on the ground more than usual. Good fastballs seem to be getting past him with more frequency than ever before. He'll make adjustments and end up with fair home run and RBI numbers, but he's just a fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues. … Alexei Ramirez was placed on the restricted list for the trip to Toronto he couldn't make due to visa troubles. It'd have made a whole lot more sense just to option him to Triple-A. Ramirez is hitting .121 in 33 at-bats to date. He's not helping the White Sox, and he'd be a lot more likely to contribute later on if given regular at-bats in the minors. The White Sox will probably have him switch places with Jerry Owens sometime soon.

Cleveland - Travis Hafner's slow start has added to the doubt whether he's ever going to return to 2006 form. The especially scary thing is that his numbers are this bad even with all of his line drives falling in (12-for-16). As those who have watched him can attest, it's not poor luck that's done him in; he's really played this badly. I'm more concerned than I would normally be for someone with his track record. He still has significant value while batting in the middle of a lineup that's sure to improve, but he could be finished as a .300 hitter. If the Indians had it to do over again, they wouldn't have given him the $52 million extension last summer. … Even if Rafael Betancourt was perfect while Joe Borowski was on the DL, there's a good chance Borowski would have been given a chance to win back his job. Betancourt, though, has taken a loss and a blown save while giving up four runs in his last two appearances. Borowski is still a couple of weeks away from returning from his biceps strain, but all signs point to him returning to the closer's role before the end of the month.

Detroit - Not that he's been a stud at the beginning of his starts, but it's late in outings that Justin Verlander is getting killed. He's given up seven runs in 2 2/3 innings when asked to go beyond the sixth this season. His velocity still isn't quite where it should be, at least not consistently, but command has been the bigger problem. His curveball and changeup have still looked pretty good most of the time. It wouldn't come as a complete shock to find out that he's hurting, but I don't really believe that's the case. It's not the time to make a big play for him if you don't have him, but those already in possession of him should stand pat. … According to MLB.com, Dontrelle Willis (knee) hit 95 mph on the radar gun while throwing 71 of his 92 pitches for strikes during his rehab start on Friday. I'm skeptical, but if it's true, he'd suddenly look like a much better bet in AL-only leagues. Even if the fastball wasn't there, the improved control was a good sign. … Armando Galarraga has been a nice stopgap for the Tigers, but he'll probably be booted from the rotation after Willis makes one more rehab start. The Tigers might be better off if Kenny Rogers suffers an injury as conveniently times as Willis's.



Kansas City - How much longer can the Royals live with Tony Pena Jr.'s .157/.174/.205 line when Alberto Callaspo is hitting .368/.429/.447 in 38 at-bats off the bench? Pena may be the AL's best defensive shortstop, but he's still no one's ideal solution as a long-term regular. The Royals likely will go shortstop hunting again this summer after trying in vain to pick up Chin-Lung Hu from the Dodgers last year. In the meantime, Callaspo looks like their best option. Pena isn't this bad, but Callaspo should best him in OPS by 100-150 points the rest of the way. … With two solid outings following a poor season debut, Luke Hochevar has made a case to stay in the rotation. John Bale (arm) could come off the disabled list as a reliever, displacing the struggling Yasuhiko Yabuta. Brett Tomko still shouldn't feel particularly safe, though, as the Royals do have Kyle Davies in Triple-A. I'm not yet very fond of Hochevar for fantasy purposes.

Los Angeles - Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana are off to incredibly similar outstanding starts. Both are 5-0. Saunders has allowed 31 hits and 10 walks in 43 1/3 innings. Santana has given up 30 hits and nine walks in 40 innings. Both have surrendered three homers. The only real difference is that Santana has nine additional strikeouts. Both should be considered sell-high candidates at this point. I think Saunders is the better pitcher, but the strikeouts aren't going to come and he does have a history of shoulder problems. With the Angels relying on him to be a horse, I could see him going down with an arm injury. Santana probably doesn't have quite as much perceived value, and there are no flashing red lights saying he has to be moved now. Still, he is in somewhat over his head. He will begin giving up more homers once his schedule gets tougher. I certainly wouldn't suggest dropping either in a shallow mixed league, but parting with one for a quality hitter off to a disappointing start would be a good idea. … That the Angels recalled Reggie Willits and gave him two straight starts shows how little faith they have in Juan Rivera right now. The Blue Jays, Braves, Astros and maybe the Yankees are teams that should be interested if the Angels make him available. They certainly don't need both he and Willits. … If Howie Kendrick (hamstring) plays in a minor league game as hoped on Sunday, he should be fine to activate for this week.

Minnesota - Nick Blackburn does get a few more grounders than the average hurler, but that he's allowed just one homer in 38 1/3 innings this season is a fluke. He's given up 47 hits and struck out only 19 in 38 1/3 innings. His cutter should serve to keep him in the majors, but once American Leaguers get more used to it, it's not going to be such an effective weapon. While he probably has a month or two left as a solid starter in AL-only leagues, he isn't likely to last as more than a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. … Carlos Gomez will apparently avoid the DL after a scary head injury on Friday. He's fine to leave active for this week. … Scott Baker aggravated his groin injury during his start on Saturday and could be forced to the disabled list. With Phil Humber struggling, Glen Perkins and Kevin Mulvey would seem to be the top candidates to take his spot in the rotation. Perkins is the better sleeper for this year. … Kevin Slowey (biceps) will rejoin the rotation this week regardless of what happens to Baker. He should be activated immediately.

New York - With Alex Rodriguez (quad) and Jorge Posada (shoulder) on the shelf, the Yankees really need Robinson Cano to snap out of it. Cano has fanned only 15 times in 113 at-bats, so it's incredible that he's hitting just .150. The slump can't last for much longer, and he's pretty much the ultimate buy-low candidate at this point. … Morgan Ensberg has just one extra-base hit in 55 at-bats, so the Yankees could give Wilson Betemit (eye) a look at third base if he comes off the DL this week. With Alberto Gonzalez also in the mix, it's possible none of the Yankees' options at third base will get enough playing time to generate value with A-Rod sidelined. … Darrell Rasner will be the choice to replace Phil Hughes (rib) in the rotation on Sunday. He shouldn't be an every-week option in AL-only leagues, but with the run support he'll get, he'll be worth using most of the time. He had a 4.01 ERA in six starts for the Yankees last year. … The Yankees are sending out signals that they won't demote Ian Kennedy following his loss to the Tigers. It's surely in part because they have no one else in Triple-A they'd like to turn to. Kennedy can't be used with a rematch against the Tigers next on the schedule, but I'm still guessing that he'll be able to work through his command problems in the majors. He's not as far off his game as Hughes was.

Oakland - Incredibly, the A's have managed to find roster space for Jack Cust, Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney so far. Travis Buck's DL stint has helped out, and with Emil Brown driving in runs like crazy, one has to wonder whether Buck will have a spot when he's ready to return from shin splints. The A's can demote Chris Denorfia to make room for him, but it'd be pointless unless they were willing to start him against right-handers. As is, they might prefer Cust and Brown in the outfield corners. … Rich Harden (back) is set to return after one more rehab start Tuesday. He might face the Rangers next Sunday, so AL-only leaguers with limited options could consider activating him for the week. … Since the A's currently have five starters with sub-4.00 ERAs, they'll have a tough call when it comes to making room for Harden. Greg Smith is pitching as well as anyone on the team, but he still might be the top candidate to go. It'd only be a short-term demotion anyway, as it's not like there's any chance of both Harden and Justin Duchscherer going a month without getting hurt.



Seattle - Just how much money are the Mariners swimming in? Obviously, it was enough so that they could cut Brad Wilkerson a month into a $3 million contract and call up Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien a week ahead of when they would have ruled out any chance of the two top prospects becoming a free agent after 2013. Of course, the person who will receive credit for the latter moves, GM Bill Bavasi, has no chance of still being with the team then, so what does he care? Clement will get the opportunity to be a part-time catcher as well as a DH against right-handers, making him a particularly good bet. He'll definitely be worth using in two-catcher mixed leagues once he qualifies behind the plate. Balentien probably isn't as ready for the majors. He'll drive some fastballs out of the park, but coming up with singles will be a problem. It was worth giving him a look. I just don't think it was necessary to cut Wilkerson to make it happen. Miguel Cairo is still on the roster, after all. … J.J. Putz's command problems aren't very worrisome. He was essentially on a rehab assignment his first couple of appearances back from a rib-cage strain. His velocity is fine, and the rest should come along soon enough.

Tampa Bay - So far, it's the Carlos Pena of old who has showed up for the Rays. He does have six homers, but those come with a .214 average and just one double. Jonny Gomes has about 100 points of OPS on him. Because he bats in a premium position in what's shaping up as a solid lineup top to bottom, Pena is still a pretty good bet for this season. He's always been streaky, and even if his average ends up around .250, he'll likely get his 100 RBI to go along with 30 homers. I wouldn't suggest paying a hefty price for him in fantasy leagues, but there's also no reason to sell. … Andy Sonnanstine's strong showing against the Orioles has allowed him to retain his rotation spot with Scott Kazmir back. Jason Hammel still has a better ERA than Edwin Jackson or Matt Garza, but sending him to the pen was the right move. He's not as good as Sonnanstine right now, and he doesn't have Jackson's upside. … Cliff Floyd (knee) could return before the end of the week, but it's nothing anyone should count on. When he does get back, both Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes will lose playing time. Nathan Haynes could be bumped from the roster.

Texas - I received plenty of complaints about Josh Hamilton's ranking last week, and I'll probably look pretty silly if he ends up playing 150 games. However, he was injury-prone before his drug problems and he was limited to 90 games last year. He may be a worse bet to stay healthy than any AL position player. Selling high wouldn't be a bad idea. … The Rangers called up Jarrod Saltamalacchia, but aren't giving him any time at first base or DH, even though they have plenty of at-bats available with Ben Broussard in a horrible slump. Instead, they're mixing in Chris Shelton at first and giving Brandon Boggs time in left. Salty is in line for more at-bats eventually, but he's not going to be an asset in mixed leagues in the short term. … The Rangers should seriously consider forgetting about Marlon Byrd (knee) and keeping Boggs around as a four-game-per-week starter in the outfield. Whichever way they go there, it looks like Frank Catalanotto's role is only going to be further reduced. With about $9 million left on his contract, he has no trade value at all. … Ramon Vazquez is the better bet in AL-only leagues than German Duran while Hank Blalock (hamstring) is out, though he has little in the way of upside. Duran at least has some pop in his bat, but as bad as the Rangers' infield defense has been, it's hard to blame Ron Washington for wanting to go with the superior glove at third.

Toronto - Adam Lind is up, but he's off to an awful start as the replacement for Thomas. Just 1-for-16 after five games, he's now sporting a .251/.294/.418 line in 366 at-bats as a major leaguer. Part of the problem is that seven of his at-bats this season have come against lefties. Lind won't be an asset versus southpaws anytime soon, and the Jays would be better off using Matt Stairs if one of the two has to play against left-handers. Lind is likely to do just fine against righties. He could get to 20 homers even after the late start, and he'd probably hit at least .260 as a true platoon player. With no other internal options and seemingly no desire at all to pursue Barry Bonds, the Jays will have to remain patient. … Diminished velocity hasn't prevented B.J. Ryan from throwing seven scoreless innings and striking out 10. It appears that he's still at least a week away from pitching on back-to-back days for the first time, but things are definitely looking up. If he needs to, he can be successful all year while throwing 88-90 mph.

[Hache Man]

NL Team-by-Team Notes
I didn't think it was a problem that the Cubs' were using their second-best reliever as their closer. Having Carlos Marmol available in the seventh and eighth and Kerry Wood finish up in the ninth was exactly the right arrangement for the team at the start of the year. However, it may be time to reevaluate. It has little to do with Wood's struggles. Yes, he's blown four saves, but he has a 0.87 WHIP and he's given up just one homer in 15 innings. The real reason to go in a different direction is that Carlos Marmol is going to be on the DL by July 1 if it doesn't happen. Marmol has thrown 21 innings through the Cubs' 31 games this season, and while he has been dominant, it takes him a lot of pitches to get his outs. He's thrown 338 pitches this season, nearly half of them sliders. Wood is at 201. Billy Wagner has thrown 170. The NL's busiest closer, Jose Valverde, is at 305. The extraordinary workload Marmol has been asked to undertake would seem to make him a very poor bet for the second half unless something changes soon. Making him a one-inning closer might be the only way to save him from Piniella's wrath.

National League Notes

Arizona - Max Scherzer flashed enormous potential while retiring all 13 hitters he faced, striking out seven of them, in his major league debut Tuesday against the Astros. Now he'll get to join the rotation in place of Edgar Gonzalez. It could be a short-term assignment with Doug Davis likely to return from thyroid cancer surgery later this month, but he's worth playing in all formats while starting. If everything goes well for Davis, Scherzer could be reassigned to the bullpen later. However, his performance this year has put to bed talk that he's going to be a long-term reliever. … Orlando Hudson doesn't appear ready to return from a hamstring injury, so mixed leaguers will probably want to look elsewhere this week. NL-only leaguers can take their chances with him. … Chad Tracy (knee) is set to begin his rehab assignment Tuesday, so the time to sell high on Mark Reynolds is running out. Reynolds isn't going to the bench when Tracy gets back, but he figures to lose some of his value.

Atlanta - That John Smoltz's shoulder woes will at least temporarily force him into the closer's role after he comes off the DL really shakes things up in Atlanta. Rafael Soriano, on the DL himself with an elbow injury, might yet get the job back if Smoltz is able to go back into the rotation after the break. However, Mike Gonzalez will also be an option by then. In fact, Gonzalez could return from Tommy John surgery before either Smoltz or Soriano is activated. He'd serve as a setup man for Manny Acosta initially. On the off chance that everyone is healthy for any length of time, the Braves could suddenly find themselves in possession of the game's best bullpen. Unfortunately, the rotation will suffer. Now it's a must that Jair Jurrjens remain a consistent force alongside Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine. Jo-Jo Reyes could get a long look in one of the remaining two spots. He has upside, but throwing strikes is still a problem. He should be picked up in NL-only leagues anyway. The fifth spot is currently Jeff Bennett's, but Chuck James could be back soon to get another shot.

Chicago - Sending down Rich Hill to work through his command problems was the right move, assuming that the Cubs don't make the mistake of burying him. All indications are that he'll be brought right back as soon as he starts throwing strikes. He's still likely to have some value in mixed leagues later this year. In the meantime, Jon Lieber will be worth using in NL-only leagues. … Aramis Ramirez missed a second game Sunday with a sore wrist, but he needs to be kept active in all formats.

Cincinnati - No one should be overreacting to Johnny Cueto's current 5.40 ERA when he still has an excellent 1.09 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 35 innings. He is giving up homers and pitching in front of arguably the game's worst outfield defense has cost him, but he's still looking like a pretty good bet. … Bronson Arroyo, on the other hand, has some real problems. He's overthrowing both his slider and curve, so neither has its usual amount of break, and his changeup has been worthless against left-handers. He's enough off his game that the Reds really should consider sending him to the pen. It'd be another way to get Homer Bailey into the rotation. … Ryan Freel is starting to win more time in center. He's the best hitter of the Reds' current options in center field, though he doesn't match Corey Patterson defensively. Because Freel is also quite injury prone, it'd make sense to keep using Patterson against righties at least three times per week. Jerry Hairston Jr. started just once last week (in right field to give Ken Griffey Jr. a break), so he seems out of the mix for now.

Colorado - It hardly makes his loss any easier to take that Troy Tulowitzki was struggling so mightily at the plate The Rockies' remaining middle-infield options are all 25th men. Clint Barmes has already cooled off, as a 3-for-25 slump has dropped his average to .280. Because of his microscopic walk rate, he's a lousy player when he's not hitting for average. Omar Quintanilla is a fine defender and a patient hitter, but he has no power to speak of. Jeff Baker isn't really a second baseman, though the Rockies might as well keep using him there when Aaron Cook isn't pitching. Jon Herrera is probably a year away. Juan Castro, signed to a minor league contract, could be called on to provide his own unique brand of "help" next week. For fantasy purposes, Baker's power makes him the best of the group. I think Quintanilla should play more than Barmes, but it probably won't happen anytime soon. Barmes is still the better bet in NL-only leagues. … Ubaldo Jimenez fared better against the Giants last week, but he needs another strong outing Monday against the Cardinals to secure his rotation spot. That's the case even though the Rockies are currently starting both Mark Redman and Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa was awful Saturday against the Dodgers, but he'll get at least one more shot. Next in line is probably Josh Towers, even though his Triple-A ERA stands at 6.12. Fortunately, the Rockies haven't given any thought to putting Taylor Buchholz back into the rotation. He's turning into an excellent short reliever.



Florida - I'd be more excited about Scott Olsen's start if he didn't have just 15 strikeouts in 40 innings. The talent has always been there for him to develop into a No. 2 starter, but the numbers say he's been at least as lucky as good so far. I don't know that it's completely true -- his changeup, in particular, looks a lot better than it did last year -- but he's still walking batters and he's due to start giving up the occasional homer. He's not a great play in mixed leagues. … Hanley Ramirez's fantasy value was mostly unaffected by the move to the third spot in Florida's lineup. Dan Uggla stands to lose big after going from second to sixth, but he's been on fire since the switch. His owners might want to see about selling high if he can build up his value over the next couple of weeks. If the switches don't last, it will probably be because Alfredo Amezaga and Cody Ross fail as Ramirez's replacement in the leadoff spot. The Marlins should still be in the market for center-field alternatives. If they fancy themselves contenders, then perhaps Kenny Lofton would be a possibility. … Luis Gonzalez has value in NL-only leagues while Josh Willingham rests his sore back for the next two weeks.

Houston - Since Wandy Rodriguez (groin) won't return this week as hoped, the Astros are hurting for starters. Chris Sampson may get to stay in the rotation despite a 7.96 ERA, and Brian Moehler might make his first start since 2006. A better idea than going to Moehler would be to reach down to Triple-A Round Rock for left-hander Josh Muecke, though he's not going to be a long-term fix. Fernando Nieve might be, but he's still not all of the way back from Tommy John surgery. He currently has a 5.28 ERA through six starts for Round Rock. … With Ty Wigginton and Kaz Matsui back, the Astros are free to resume discussing Mark Loretta in deals. Loretta is hitting just .211/.299/.263, but there's still some interest in him around the league. If the Astros could get a major league reliever for him, they'd have to consider it. The Padres and Dodgers could make plays for him after losing out on Juan Castro.

Los Angeles - Putting a Gold Glove catcher at third base seems crazy, but the Dodgers actually did it on back-to-back days. It can't be a real break for Russell Martin, even if it does free him from having to squat 150 times per day. He still needs actual rest on occasion. Otherwise, it's likely that he'll wear down again this season. … Andy LaRoche was still at least a week away anyway as he continued to rehab his thumb injury. Now he's been optioned down, creating doubt about when he'll get his chance. Blake DeWitt has played quite well since returning to the majors when Nomar Garciaparra got hurt, so there was no reason for the Dodgers to make the switch at present. Still, they need to give LaRoche a real look, as he offers the best potential combination of offense and defensive of the team's options at third. He should be 100 percent by the end of the month. … With off days Thursday and next Monday, it sounds like the Dodgers will go without a fifth starter for now. Esteban Loaiza may again be the choice next time one is needed on May 17, but by early June, either Jason Schmidt (shoulder) or top prospect Clayton Kershaw could be a possibility.

Milwaukee - Eric Gagne's fifth blown save on Sunday is going to force the Brewers to seriously consider making a change in the closer's role. Besides recent callup Mitch Stetter, who isn't a legitimate alternative, the Brewers' best relievers have been Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota. Of the two, Mota would make more sense in the ninth, primarily because Torres is most valuable when he's entering with men on base and working more than one inning. Mota, though, has issued 10 walks in 15 innings this season, and it's hardly likely that the Brewers will want to trade one frustratingly wild closer for another. Sticking with Gagne is probably the best option for now. If he's still struggling in a couple of weeks, it will be time to go to Mota or maybe David Riske, if he starts throwing better. … The devastating knee injury suffered by Yovani Gallardo has Dave Bush back in Milwaukee's rotation. Bush is a spot starter in NL-only leagues at this point. … If Manny Parra doesn't work through his problems soon, he might be sent down in favor of Jeff Weaver later this month. Parra should have much better than a .330 average against and a 22/17 K/BB ratio after six starts. It'd be a mistake for NL-only leaguers to give up on him, but it is disappointing to see him failing to pitch up to his ability.

New York - Carlos Delgado's awful start has helped Carlos Beltran's struggles go relatively unnoticed. Beltran, though, has a .210 average and just two homers to date. Perhaps more than any other star in baseball, Beltran just isn't any good when he has to play at less than 100 percent, and he still isn't completely recovered from offseason surgery on both knees. I think he qualifies as a buy-low candidate, but an immediate turnaround probably isn't on the way. … Moises Alou's return Friday put Angel Pagan on the bench. Alou won't be an everyday player as the Mets try to keep him healthy, but he's still good enough that he makes for a decent play in mixed leagues while starting five games per week. It'll help that he's hitting right behind David Wright and Beltran. … Claudio Vargas had a rough debut for Triple-A New Orleans on Sunday, giving up six runs in four innings. It looks like Mike Pelfrey and Nelson Figueroa are safe for a couple of more weeks anyway.

Philadelphia - Brett Myers struck out 10 and showed his best fastball of the season Saturday against the Giants. He did give up another homer -- his 11th in seven starts -- but it was an encouraging showing. … I don't always like his in-game moves, but Charlie Manuel has done a very nice job of handling his lineup this year. With Shane Victorino back, he has decisions to make every day in the outfield, at third base and behind the plate, yet he's done a fine job of keeping everyone in the mix. Before a well-deserved off day Sunday, Jayson Werth had been a fixture in the outfield. He'll remain the starter until he slumps, meaning Victorino and Geoff Jenkins could share time pretty evenly. Mixed leaguers capable of waiting to activate Victorino should do so until he reemerges as an everyday player. Along with Werth, Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste have been picking up at-bats. Pedro Feliz remains the nominal starter at third base, but Dobbs will start against every second righty anyway. He has the better OPS versus righties by 250 points. Coste seems to have cooled off just as he was on his way to winning additional time. Ruiz remains easily the better bet of the two catchers for fantasy purposes. … Jimmy Rollins (ankle) is hoping to come off the DL on Thursday.



Pittsburgh - The Pirates have no starters with an ERA under 4.50 or more than two wins. That Matt Morris was put out to pasture can only help, but there still isn't a lot of reason for optimism beyond the inevitable Ian Snell turnaround. Tom Gorzelanny appears to be pitching hurt, and the back strain that will give him this week off could qualify as good news. Zach Duke has just 10 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings, and as poor as the Pirates' defense is, there's no way he can succeed while getting so few outs himself. Paul Maholm has been adequate, but that's as good as it gets for him. Phil Dumatrait isn't any sort of answer as the replacement for Morris, and with no prospects ready, the Pirates need to be keeping an eye on the waiver wire for alternatives. They also shouldn't be ruling out trading Xavier Nady for a young starter. His value will never he higher. … Since Jose Bautista finally seems to have turned it around, he'll stop losing at-bats to Doug Mientkiewicz and Chris Gomez. Adam LaRoche is next. … Jack Wilson had a setback with his strained calf, so it doesn't look like he'll return this week. Brian Bixler will be sent down once Wilson comes off the DL.

St. Louis - That Jason Isringhausen has already blown more saves this year (three) than he did all of 2007 (two) is of some concern, but there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him at all. His cut fastball is still moving, and if he's not hitting his spots, well, he's never been known for his pinpoint command. He should be fine. … Mark Mulder (shoulder) was ripped in his fourth rehab start, seemingly eliminating any chance of an early return from the DL. The Cardinals still don't want to bump anyone from their rotation anyway. There's a real chance that Mulder won't prove to be an upgrade on any of the current starters. He's likely to get his shot regardless come May 21. Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro look like the candidates to go to the pen to make room for him. … Pineiro is questionable to make his start Monday because of a sore back. Mike Parisi could be called on to fill in for him.

San Diego - The Padres appear to be leaning towards pulling Justin Germano out of the rotation and replacing him with Wilfredo Ledezma or Glendon Rusch. Neither southpaw is worth an immediate pickup in NL-only leagues, but Ledezma does have some upside. It seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance the Padres could bypass both and go to Shawn Estes. He did have a quality start five years ago, after all. … The move to gamble on Jim Edmonds didn't seem like a bad one, but the 37-year-old has been awful at the plate this year and he's not making up for it with his glove. If there's one team that could really use Coco Crisp, it's San Diego. Jake Peavy's suggestion that the Padres make a play for Lofton also looks like a good one. Edmonds should get the rest of the month to improve, but the future looks bleak for him.

San Francisco - The No. 1 complaint from last week's May rankings involved leaving out Jonathan Sanchez. I do regret it, though it was more a judgment error than an oversight. I still wouldn't put him any higher than the 95-105 range among SPs. We know he can strike out batters, but command remains a major issue and it's not like he's going to rack up victories. It figures that he'll be pretty inconsistent. … Barry Zito's bullpen stint won't last long at all, but it may give him a chance to tweak his delivery a bit. He needs to do something in an attempt to either add velocity or deception. I wonder how much differently things would have gone had the Giants let Zito proceed with the new windup he came up with heading into spring training 2007. The team quickly pressured him into ditching his longer stride that might have helped lead to more velocity. They figure to be a lot more open-minded about any proposed changes at this point. … The Giants face five lefties this week, making John Bowker a poor play in NL-only leagues. Fred Lewis will probably start at least three of the games, so he can be left active in NL-only leagues. However, any mixed leaguers that picked him up should look elsewhere for the week.

Washington - A torn muscle below Chad Cordero's shoulder is supposed to keep him out 4-6 weeks, but it's obviously going to be longer than that before he's again an option in fantasy leagues. If Jon Rauch was already a 50/50 bet to close for the Nats for the rest of the year, it's more like 70/30 now. … With a .226 average on balls in play, Nick Johnson has been one of the game's unluckiest hitters to date. Incredibly, he's the Nationals' RBI leader anyway, as he's saved his best work for big situations. The singles will come, and there will be times this year during which he'll be worth using in shallow mixed leagues. Of course, he's still a great bet to serve a DL stint or two. … Matt Chico, who is 0-5 with a 6.87 ERA, apparently hasn't punched his ticket back to Triple-A just yet, but it could happen if he doesn't turn in a better outing against the Marlins this weekend. Jason Bergmann would be the top candidate to replace him. … Due to face both the Astros and Marlins, Shawn Hill looks like a solid choice as at least a one-week option in NL-only leagues.

[Hache Man]

Laffey All the Way to the Bank

Pitchers injuring themselves by punching things with their throwing hand is a long-standing baseball tradition that John Bale stupidly continued Friday night. Perhaps frustrated by his slow recovery from a shoulder injury and the possibility that he'll be sent back to the bullpen once he does return, Bale used his left hand to punch a wall at the Royals' team hotel and then tried to keep the injury a secret for nearly 24 hours.

"I'm not pleased, obviously," manager Trey Hillman said. "Players have to think before they do things. Think about how it's going to affect the rest of the team, how it's going to affect their ability to perform. I'm hopeful that there's something salvageable for him." Rather than returning in two weeks, Bale is now out for two months and has probably punched away whatever chance he had of rejoining the rotation by giving Luke Hochevar an extended opportunity to stick.

While Bale contemplates the wisdom of at least using his non-pitching hand when feeling the need to fight with inanimate, immovable objects in the future, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* As a big fan of extreme ground-ball pitchers, Aaron Laffey has been one of my favorite sleepers for the past couple years. He went 13-4 with a 2.88 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last season before holding his own in nine outings with the Indians, and then began this year 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Triple-A before being called back up to Cleveland when Jake Westbrook headed to the disabled list.

Laffey had an uneven first start last week against the Yankees, but was fantastic Sunday versus the Royals. He took the loss thanks to the Indians' lineup being shut out by Gil Meche, but gave up only an unearned run over seven innings, threw 70 of 103 pitches for strikes, and got 13 outs via either strikeout or ground ball. In 11 starts with the Indians dating back to last season, Laffey has induced nearly 3.5 ground balls for every fly ball, allowing just two homers over 62 innings.

He'll never miss enough bats to be a true fantasy stud, but Laffey is an excellent long-term bet in AL-only leagues because he throws strikes, gets a reasonable number of strikeouts, and forces hitters to pound the ball into the ground. To put his 3.43-to-1 ground-to-fly ratio in some context, consider that only Derek Lowe (3.46), Brandon Webb (3.34), and Fausto Carmona (3.28) had a ratio above 3-to-1 among pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season.

* It wasn't what they had in mind when refusing to part with young pitching in exchange for Johan Santana this winter, but after placing Phil Hughes on the disabled list last week the Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the minors Sunday. Like Hughes, Kennedy has been a mess this season, going 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA while walking 20 batters over 23.2 innings. Unlike Hughes, he doesn't have an injury as a built-in excuse.

There's speculation that manager Joe Girardi wanted to show more patience with Kennedy, but was overruled by the front office. If true that's not a great sign for Girardi or the Yankees, because the likely replacements for Kennedy are Kei Igawa or Jeff Marquez. Igawa was a massive bust last season and Marquez is a 23-year-old mid-level prospect with a career 169-to-78 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 252.2 innings who currently has a 7.47 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A.

* Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list Sunday and lasted just four innings against the Red Sox, allowing four runs while using 90 pitches to record a dozen outs. It clearly wasn't a strong outing, especially considering his 2.66 career ERA against Boston, but Kazmir did strike out five batters and showed good stuff while struggling with command. He'll face the Angels next later this week and it's worth taking the risk of putting him back in your lineup.

* Bronson Arroyo tossed his first Quality Start of the season against the Cardinals on April 28, but wiped away whatever progress he made by turning in the shortest start of his career Sunday. He threw a scoreless first inning, but then got just one out in the second frame while allowing seven runs against the Braves. Arroyo's ERA went from 6.97 to 8.63 with the beating, but his 29-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 32.1 innings suggests that he still has a chance to turn things around.

AL Quick Hits: David Ortiz was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to continued soreness in his right knee … Roy Halladay's streak of consecutive complete games was snapped at four Sunday, but he beat the White Sox and has gone at least seven innings in every start this season … After going 2-for-3 in a minor-league rehab game Sunday at Single-A, Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is expected to return from the disabled list Monday … With Scott Baker (groin) hurting, Kevin Slowey (biceps) will come off the shelf to start Thursday against the White Sox … John Lackey (triceps) allowed two runs over four innings during a rehab start Sunday at Single-A and remains on track to rejoin the Angels' rotation around mid-May … With B.J. Ryan unavailable to pitch on a second straight day, Jeremy Accardo started the ninth inning Sunday and Scott Downs got the save by coming in to get A.J. Pierzynski for the final out … Dontrelle Wills (knee) experienced a setback Friday and his return timetable has been pushed back 10 days … Carlos Silva's ERA rose from 2.79 to 4.20 after he coughed up eight runs on 11 hits Sunday against the Yankees.

NL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne blew his MLB-leading fifth save Sunday, walking three batters while allowing two runs … Peter Moylan (elbow) had to end his Saturday throwing session after just seven pitches, suggesting that Tommy John surgery could be on the horizon … Orlando Hudson (hamstring) walked as a pinch-hitter Sunday and was removed for a pinch-runner, signaling that he's not yet ready to rejoin the lineup … Chipper Jones went 3-for-6 with a homer and five RBIs Sunday, giving him an amazing .425-9-27 line through 28 games … Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Monday … Mike Hampton (pectoral) said Saturday that he considered retiring following his latest setback, but will instead attempt to return at some point next month … After picking up a victory Sunday night, long-time reliever Todd Wellemeyer is 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 76-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 career starts … Paul Bako came into the year as a career .233 hitter with 15 homers in 2,000 plate appearances, but is now batting .312 with three homers after going deep Sunday.

[Hache Man]

Laffey All the Way to the Bank

Pitchers injuring themselves by punching things with their throwing hand is a long-standing baseball tradition that John Bale stupidly continued Friday night. Perhaps frustrated by his slow recovery from a shoulder injury and the possibility that he'll be sent back to the bullpen once he does return, Bale used his left hand to punch a wall at the Royals' team hotel and then tried to keep the injury a secret for nearly 24 hours.

"I'm not pleased, obviously," manager Trey Hillman said. "Players have to think before they do things. Think about how it's going to affect the rest of the team, how it's going to affect their ability to perform. I'm hopeful that there's something salvageable for him." Rather than returning in two weeks, Bale is now out for two months and has probably punched away whatever chance he had of rejoining the rotation by giving Luke Hochevar an extended opportunity to stick.

While Bale contemplates the wisdom of at least using his non-pitching hand when feeling the need to fight with inanimate, immovable objects in the future, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* As a big fan of extreme ground-ball pitchers, Aaron Laffey has been one of my favorite sleepers for the past couple years. He went 13-4 with a 2.88 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last season before holding his own in nine outings with the Indians, and then began this year 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA at Triple-A before being called back up to Cleveland when Jake Westbrook headed to the disabled list.

Laffey had an uneven first start last week against the Yankees, but was fantastic Sunday versus the Royals. He took the loss thanks to the Indians' lineup being shut out by Gil Meche, but gave up only an unearned run over seven innings, threw 70 of 103 pitches for strikes, and got 13 outs via either strikeout or ground ball. In 11 starts with the Indians dating back to last season, Laffey has induced nearly 3.5 ground balls for every fly ball, allowing just two homers over 62 innings.

He'll never miss enough bats to be a true fantasy stud, but Laffey is an excellent long-term bet in AL-only leagues because he throws strikes, gets a reasonable number of strikeouts, and forces hitters to pound the ball into the ground. To put his 3.43-to-1 ground-to-fly ratio in some context, consider that only Derek Lowe (3.46), Brandon Webb (3.34), and Fausto Carmona (3.28) had a ratio above 3-to-1 among pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season.

* It wasn't what they had in mind when refusing to part with young pitching in exchange for Johan Santana this winter, but after placing Phil Hughes on the disabled list last week the Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the minors Sunday. Like Hughes, Kennedy has been a mess this season, going 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA while walking 20 batters over 23.2 innings. Unlike Hughes, he doesn't have an injury as a built-in excuse.

There's speculation that manager Joe Girardi wanted to show more patience with Kennedy, but was overruled by the front office. If true that's not a great sign for Girardi or the Yankees, because the likely replacements for Kennedy are Kei Igawa or Jeff Marquez. Igawa was a massive bust last season and Marquez is a 23-year-old mid-level prospect with a career 169-to-78 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 252.2 innings who currently has a 7.47 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A.

* Scott Kazmir returned from the disabled list Sunday and lasted just four innings against the Red Sox, allowing four runs while using 90 pitches to record a dozen outs. It clearly wasn't a strong outing, especially considering his 2.66 career ERA against Boston, but Kazmir did strike out five batters and showed good stuff while struggling with command. He'll face the Angels next later this week and it's worth taking the risk of putting him back in your lineup.

* Bronson Arroyo tossed his first Quality Start of the season against the Cardinals on April 28, but wiped away whatever progress he made by turning in the shortest start of his career Sunday. He threw a scoreless first inning, but then got just one out in the second frame while allowing seven runs against the Braves. Arroyo's ERA went from 6.97 to 8.63 with the beating, but his 29-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 32.1 innings suggests that he still has a chance to turn things around.

AL Quick Hits: David Ortiz was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to continued soreness in his right knee … Roy Halladay's streak of consecutive complete games was snapped at four Sunday, but he beat the White Sox and has gone at least seven innings in every start this season … After going 2-for-3 in a minor-league rehab game Sunday at Single-A, Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is expected to return from the disabled list Monday … With Scott Baker (groin) hurting, Kevin Slowey (biceps) will come off the shelf to start Thursday against the White Sox … John Lackey (triceps) allowed two runs over four innings during a rehab start Sunday at Single-A and remains on track to rejoin the Angels' rotation around mid-May … With B.J. Ryan unavailable to pitch on a second straight day, Jeremy Accardo started the ninth inning Sunday and Scott Downs got the save by coming in to get A.J. Pierzynski for the final out … Dontrelle Wills (knee) experienced a setback Friday and his return timetable has been pushed back 10 days … Carlos Silva's ERA rose from 2.79 to 4.20 after he coughed up eight runs on 11 hits Sunday against the Yankees.

NL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne blew his MLB-leading fifth save Sunday, walking three batters while allowing two runs … Peter Moylan (elbow) had to end his Saturday throwing session after just seven pitches, suggesting that Tommy John surgery could be on the horizon … Orlando Hudson (hamstring) walked as a pinch-hitter Sunday and was removed for a pinch-runner, signaling that he's not yet ready to rejoin the lineup … Chipper Jones went 3-for-6 with a homer and five RBIs Sunday, giving him an amazing .425-9-27 line through 28 games … Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Monday … Mike Hampton (pectoral) said Saturday that he considered retiring following his latest setback, but will instead attempt to return at some point next month … After picking up a victory Sunday night, long-time reliever Todd Wellemeyer is 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 76-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 career starts … Paul Bako came into the year as a career .233 hitter with 15 homers in 2,000 plate appearances, but is now batting .312 with three homers after going deep Sunday.

[Hache Man]

Changes in Detroit

Manager Jim Leyland promised "big changes" following Sunday's loss and the Tigers shifted their lineup around Monday after designating Jacque Jones for assignment. Cutting Jones loose after a couple dozen games would normally be a rash decision, but there's reason to believe that he's in the midst of a serious decline at the age of 33. Beginning in 2000 he averaged 21 homers over a seven-year span, including a career-high 27 long balls in 2006.

However, Jones managed just five homers in 495 plate appearances last season and went deep just once in 90 trips to the plate this year while batting .165. Gary Sheffield replaced Jones in left field Monday and the hope is that playing defense after two years spent primarily at designated hitter can help wake his bat up. Swapping Jones for Sheffield is a downgrade defensively that the Tigers can hardly afford, but it may also open up playing time for Brandon Inge's good glove.

With Sheffield in left field, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen will likely see increased time at DH. When Ordonez starts at DH, Matt Joyce figures to man right field after being called up from Triple-A prior to Monday's game. When Guillen starts at DH, Inge figures to play third base. Inge is more or less a known commodity offensively at this point, offering 20-homer power to go along with a horrible batting average, and while largely unknown Joyce is a relatively similar hitter.

He's a career .275/.350/.446 hitter in four minor-league seasons and was off to a career-best start at Triple-A, but has struck out 154 times in 158 games since advancing to Double-A. Joyce has solid power and plate discipline, but hitting above .250 may be a struggle. There's a pretty good chance that he's really no better than Jones, but as far as making moves just to make moves go this one doesn't have much chance of coming back to bite the Tigers.

While we wonder if Leyland has considered giving a call to the guy who manned left field for him in Pittsburgh two decades ago, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Ervin Santana pitched brilliantly at home and struggled mightily on the road during his first three seasons, consistently turning in a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance despite the lack of an obvious explanation. In 2005 he went 9-3 with a 3.18 ERA at home and 3-5 with a 7.44 ERA on the road. In 2006 he went 10-2 with a 3.02 ERA at home and 6-6 with a 5.95 ERA on the road. And last year he went 6-4 with a 3.27 ERA at home and 1-10 with an 8.38 ERA on the road.

Add it all up and Santana's first three seasons saw him go 25-9 with 3.14 ERA at home compared to 10-21 with a 7.14 ERA on the road, which is one of the most extreme, consistent, and mind-boggling home-road splits that you'll ever see. At one point last season his road struggles got so bad that Santana was yanked from the rotation and sent back to Triple-A, but over the past six weeks he miraculously appears to have conquered his problems away from Anaheim.

Santana began the season with six innings of one-run ball against the Twins, in Minnesota, and has turned in a Quality Start in each of his seven outings regardless of location. He may have officially tossed aside his road issues Monday night, hurling a complete-game shutout against the Royals, in Kansas City. He's now 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA overall, including 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA on the road. Santana faces the Rays in Tampa Bay this weekend and for once it's not a worry.

* Eric Gagne blew his MLB-worst fifth save Sunday, but general manager Doug Melvin gave him a vote of confidence Monday by saying that the Brewers will stick with him as closer. "You stay with a closer as long as you can," Melvin said. "If a hitter slumps for six weeks, you stay with him. Closers go in slumps too. You give him the benefit of the doubt for now." He's right that closers go through slumps just like other players, but Gagne's struggles date back further than six weeks.

Gagne has appeared in a total of 36 games since being traded to the Red Sox last July, posting a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over 33 innings. He has 39 strikeouts during that time, which is at least some reason to think that he hasn't completely lost it, but allowing 41 hits (including five homers) and handing out 19 walks in 158 plate appearances qualifies as a huge mess. He's clearly on very thin ice, with Guillermo Mota or Salomon Torres waiting in the wings.

* Johnny Cueto had the worst start of his young career last week against the Cardinals, allowing seven runs while record just four outs, but bounced back in a big way Monday. Facing the Cubs on six days rest thanks to the Reds pushing his turn in the rotation back, Cueto turned in a Quality Start while racking up eight strikouts. Cueto will go through rough patches, but with a 41-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio through seven career starts he's living up the considerable hype.

AL Quick Hits: B.J. Ryan has been cleared to pitch on back-to-back days and closed out a 1-0 victory Monday … Josh Hamilton sat out his first game of the year Monday for what manager Ron Washington called a "mental break" … Eric Chavez (back) said Sunday that he doesn't expect to come off the disabled list when eligible on May 27 … David Ortiz returned Monday and went 2-for-4 with a homer, but manager Terry Francona indicated that his sore knee will likely continue being an issue … With a third straight bad outing Monday, Kevin Millwood has seen his ERA rise from 2.53 to 4.94 … Daisuke Matsuzaka walked eight batters Monday, yet still improved to 5-0 by holding the Tigers to one run over five innings … Garrett Olson turned in his second straight solid start Monday, totaling seven strikeouts in 6.1 innings of one-run ball to grab hold of a rotation spot until Adam Loewen (elbow) returns … Joe Crede was scratched from Monday's lineup with a migraine and Pablo Ozuna grounded into a game-ending double play in his place … Garret Anderson's two-run homer Monday was his first long ball since April 9.

NL Quick Hits: Jimmy Rollins (ankle) went 4-for-4 in an extended spring training game Monday and looks set to come off the disabled list Thursday … Max Scherzer showed that he's human by struggling Monday against the Phillies and reportedly isn't expected to remain in the rotation once Doug Davis returns from thyroid cancer surgery … Like his rotation-mate Cueto, Bronson Arroyo allowed seven runs while recording just four outs in a start last week, but is scheduled to be examined by team doctors before his next outing … Daily Dose favorite Geovany Soto went 3-for-3 with a homer Monday and the rookie catcher is now hitting .352 with 19 extra-base hits and 24 RBIs on the year … Omar Vizquel (knee) began a minor-league rehab assignment Sunday at Triple-A, going 0-for-2 … Kip Wells is scheduled to undergo surgery Tuesday to remove blood clots from his pitching hand … Orlando Hudson returned to the lineup Monday after missing two starts with a strained hamstring.

[Hache Man]

Floyd's Near No-No

Gavin Floyd came within two outs of a no-hitter Tuesday night against the Twins, but Joe Mauer canceled history with a line drive double past a diving Nick Swisher in left-center field. Mauer also drew a pair of walks versus Floyd while the rest of the Twins' lineup reached base just once in 26 trips to the plate against him. Already at 105 pitches, Floyd was quickly pulled after giving up the double, settling for a victory while allowing just an unearned run over 8.1 innings. newyorkmets.com

Floyd is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA through six starts and the 25-year-old former top prospect has plenty of long-term potential, but there's never been a better time to sell high on him. Lost in the sparkling ERA and near no-hitter is that Floyd sports an ugly 19-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39.2 innings this season. Beyond that, the defense behind Floyd has converted over 85 percent of his balls in play into outs, which isn't close to even being in the realm of sustainable.
atlantabraves.com
He's been nearly impossible to hit thus far and made the undisciplined Twins look especially silly Tuesday, but Floyd's career ERA still stands at 5.61, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 143-to-101 in 218.1 innings, and he's a fly-ball pitcher who calls one of MLB's most power-inflating ballparks home. In other words, he's due to come crashing back down to earth soon enough and if an owner in your league is willing to pay a premium for him before then, you should oblige.

While Floyd lowers his opponent's batting average to a ridiculous .132 and has a jerk columnist advising people to trade him, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Nate McLouth was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season, but he's surpassed my wildest expectations thus far. Moved to the second spot in the Pirates' lineup Tuesday for the first time this season, McLouth went 3-for-5 and notched his second multi-homer game of the year. He hasn't done much running yet after going 22-of-23 swiping bases in a part-time role last year, but has more than made up for it by being an absolute monster at the plate.

He's now batting .333/.417/.652 with nine homers and 13 doubles in 32 games, which is amazing given how little pop he showed while posting a modest .127 Isolated Power during five seasons in the minors. McLouth homered a total of 40 times in over 2,300 trips to the plate in the minors, yet has already gone deep 33 times in fewer than 1,000 plate appearances as a big leaguer. His Isolated Power in the majors is .202, which is 59 percent higher than his minors mark.

* Lance Berkman had a huge game Tuesday, going 5-for-5 with two doubles, two steals, and four runs in a 6-5 win over the Nationals. Not only is Berkman now hitting .353/.428/.731 on the year, he's already swiped a half-dozen bases after failing to crack double-digit steals in any of his first eight seasons. Jose Valverde closed out the one-run lead following Berkman's heroics and has now thrown 10.2 straight scoreless innings after coughing up 11 runs through his first 7.1 frames.

* Jimmy Rollins went 4-for-4 in an extended spring training game Monday and then followed it up by going 2-for-4 with a homer Tuesday, seemingly guaranteeing that he'll come off the disabled list Thursday. There's speculation that the Phillies would like to delay his return for a couple more days, but as Rollins put it: "I have a plane ticket." He hasn't started a game since April 8, but was hitting .308/.341/.513 prior to the injury and looks ready to pick up right where he left off.

* New Reds general manager Walt Jocketty responded that "it's a little bit premature" when asked Tuesday about possibly trading Ken Griffey Jr., but also made it clear that he's open for business. "I've had no trade discussions with him," Jocketty said. "I'm not saying that couldn't happen, but it just hasn't at this point." The Reds hold a $16.5 million option on Griffey for next season or could choose to buy him out for $4 million, so Jocketty may try to cash him in before then.

AL Quick Hits: Victor Martinez is considered day-to-day after sitting out Tuesday's game with a sore neck … Curt Schilling (biceps) began his comeback by playing catch on flat ground Tuesday and is expected to do the same Thursday … Manager Joe Girardi announced Tuesday that Kei Igawa will likely be called up from Triple-A to start Friday against the Tigers … Scott Baker (groin) is headed to the disabled list, with Glen Perkins slated to start in his place this weekend … With Jason Michaels designated for assignment Tuesday, the Indians will go with Ben Francisco as the new platoon partner for David Dellucci … Dr. James Andrews found zero structural damage after examining Adam Loewen's elbow Monday, but no timetable has been established for his return … Wilson Betemit came off the shelf Tuesday after missing three weeks with pink eye and started at third base, pushing Alberto Gonzalez to Triple-A … According to MLB.com, the Padres and Marlins are interested in Jacque Jones, who was designated for assignment by the Tigers earlier this week.

NL Quick Hits: Chipper Jones smacked his 10th homer Tuesday, going 2-for-2 with two walks to raise his OPS to an amazing 1.220 … After returning to the lineup Monday, Orlando Hudson sat out Tuesday's game and is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his strained hamstring … Rafael Furcal was scratched from Tuesday's game with a stiff lower back, giving Chin-Lung Hu a start in his place … Jonathan Sanchez had a pretty 1.21 ERA over his previous five starts, but was knocked around by the Pirates for seven runs Tuesday … Jason Schmidt's (shoulder) scheduled simulated game was canceled Tuesday because he was still tired from a 70-pitch bullpen session Friday … Jair Jurrjens worked at least six innings Tuesday for the sixth straight start, striking out eight while holding the Padres to one run for his fourth victory … Nick Johnson homered and walked three times in four trips to the plate Tuesday, pushing his on-base percentage to .410 … Mark Mulder (shoulder) had another ugly minor-league rehab start Monday at Triple-A and looks far from ready to rejoin the Cardinals' rotation.

[Hache Man]

Candidates to hit .400
It's May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.

This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought.

Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?

No player has managed to bat .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941, and one has to wonder why.

Is it that unattainable of a feat?

If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events — a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball's batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones' contact rate is 91%.

The other half of the equation is how often those batted balls fall for hits. This "hit rate" (hits divided by at-bats-minus-strikeouts) is only partially a skill of the batter, with the exception, of course, of home runs. All remaining batted balls will become hits depending upon the power and speed of the batter as well as the positioning of the defense. As a result, hit rates tend to be highly variable from year to year but they will regress to each batter's level.

An average hit rate is 33%. Last year's leaders were B.J. Upton and Jack Cust (44%).

Because the career levels of these players are far below 44%, we would expect regression in 2008. And both players are posting a 38% hit rate and experiencing lower batting averages than in 2007.

Jones' hit rate is currently an amazing 47%. Nearly half of his batted balls are falling for hits.

Since hit rate is partially out of the batter's control, outlying rates like this are mostly due to at least a little bit of luck. As his hit rate starts to come down to earth, Jones' batting average will fade, as we would expect.

But what if it doesn't? Is that possible?

When Williams batted .406, he did it with a 94% contact rate and 43% hit rate. Aside from the fact that he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times in 456 at-bats, those rates don't seem completely unattainable.

Individually, anyway.

Last year, there were only 15 players who qualified for the batting titles (minimum 502 plate appearances) who had a contact rate of at least 90%. Not one of them had a hit rate of more than 36%.

Similarly, there were only 16 players among the batting-title qualifiers who had a hit rate of more than 40%. Only one of them had a contact rate of more than 83%.

This one batter is intriguing.

This batter posted a hit rate of 40% and a contact rate of 89%. Although those rates are a good distance from the levels posted by Williams, they are at least marginally in the same ballpark. It is no surprise that this is the only current player who we might consider as having a legitimate shot at .400.

Ichiro Suzuki.

Jones' career is one of contact rates in the vicinity of 85% and hit rates about 35%, so his history does not portend .400 potential. We expect that a correction will be coming soon.

It's May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.
This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought.

Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?


ACES IN ATLANTA: Reunion of 'greatest rotation of all-time'
CHAT: Ron Shandler answers your questions at 1 p.m. ET

No player has managed to bat .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941, and one has to wonder why.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Chipper Jones | Pat Burrell | Placido Polanco | Ted Williams | Mike Sweeney | Jack Cust
Is it that unattainable of a feat?

If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events — a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball's batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones' contact rate is 91%.

The other half of the equation is how often those batted balls fall for hits. This "hit rate" (hits divided by at-bats-minus-strikeouts) is only partially a skill of the batter, with the exception, of course, of home runs. All remaining batted balls will become hits depending upon the power and speed of the batter as well as the positioning of the defense. As a result, hit rates tend to be highly variable from year to year but they will regress to each batter's level.

An average hit rate is 33%. Last year's leaders were B.J. Upton and Jack Cust (44%).

Because the career levels of these players are far below 44%, we would expect regression in 2008. And both players are posting a 38% hit rate and experiencing lower batting averages than in 2007.

Jones' hit rate is currently an amazing 47%. Nearly half of his batted balls are falling for hits.

Since hit rate is partially out of the batter's control, outlying rates like this are mostly due to at least a little bit of luck. As his hit rate starts to come down to earth, Jones' batting average will fade, as we would expect.

But what if it doesn't? Is that possible?

When Williams batted .406, he did it with a 94% contact rate and 43% hit rate. Aside from the fact that he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times in 456 at-bats, those rates don't seem completely unattainable.

Individually, anyway.

Last year, there were only 15 players who qualified for the batting titles (minimum 502 plate appearances) who had a contact rate of at least 90%. Not one of them had a hit rate of more than 36%.

Similarly, there were only 16 players among the batting-title qualifiers who had a hit rate of more than 40%. Only one of them had a contact rate of more than 83%.

This one batter is intriguing.

This batter posted a hit rate of 40% and a contact rate of 89%. Although those rates are a good distance from the levels posted by Williams, they are at least marginally in the same ballpark. It is no surprise that this is the only current player who we might consider as having a legitimate shot at .400.

Ichiro Suzuki.

Jones' career is one of contact rates in the vicinity of 85% and hit rates about 35%, so his history does not portend .400 potential. We expect that a correction will be coming soon.

It's May 7, and Chipper Jones is batting better than .400.
This is not an entirely unusual occurrence. Hitters often top .400 for short periods of time. We take notice when it happens at the beginning of the season, but there are many in-season .400 stretches that pass without a second thought.

Did you know that Pat Burrell batted .435 last July?


ACES IN ATLANTA: Reunion of 'greatest rotation of all-time'
CHAT: Ron Shandler answers your questions at 1 p.m. ET

No player has managed to bat .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941, and one has to wonder why.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Chipper Jones | Pat Burrell | Placido Polanco | Ted Williams | Mike Sweeney | Jack Cust
Is it that unattainable of a feat?

If we break down batting average into its component parts, perhaps we can uncover the truth.

A hit is constructed of two general events — a batter making contact with a pitch and the ball falling fair. A batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a skill we can track over time. An average batter will have a rate of about 80%; in other words, he will hit a ball into fair territory in 80% of his at-bats. The best contact hitters will have rates well in excess of 90% and are typically among baseball's batting average leaders.

In 2007, Placido Polanco led the majors with a contact rate of 95% and batted .341. This year, Mike Sweeney leads the majors with a 99% contact rate (he has struck out once in 77 at-bats) and is batting .311.

Jones' contact rate is 91%.

The other half of the equation is how often those batted balls fall for hits. This "hit rate" (hits divided by at-bats-minus-strikeouts) is only partially a skill of the batter, with the exception, of course, of home runs. All remaining batted balls will become hits depending upon the power and speed of the batter as well as the positioning of the defense. As a result, hit rates tend to be highly variable from year to year but they will regress to each batter's level.

An average hit rate is 33%. Last year's leaders were B.J. Upton and Jack Cust (44%).

Because the career levels of these players are far below 44%, we would expect regression in 2008. And both players are posting a 38% hit rate and experiencing lower batting averages than in 2007.

Jones' hit rate is currently an amazing 47%. Nearly half of his batted balls are falling for hits.

Since hit rate is partially out of the batter's control, outlying rates like this are mostly due to at least a little bit of luck. As his hit rate starts to come down to earth, Jones' batting average will fade, as we would expect.

But what if it doesn't? Is that possible?

When Williams batted .406, he did it with a 94% contact rate and 43% hit rate. Aside from the fact that he hit 37 home runs and struck out only 27 times in 456 at-bats, those rates don't seem completely unattainable.

Individually, anyway.

Last year, there were only 15 players who qualified for the batting titles (minimum 502 plate appearances) who had a contact rate of at least 90%. Not one of them had a hit rate of more than 36%.

Similarly, there were only 16 players among the batting-title qualifiers who had a hit rate of more than 40%. Only one of them had a contact rate of more than 83%.

This one batter is intriguing.

This batter posted a hit rate of 40% and a contact rate of 89%. Although those rates are a good distance from the levels posted by Williams, they are at least marginally in the same ballpark. It is no surprise that this is the only current player who we might consider as having a legitimate shot at .400.

Ichiro Suzuki.

Jones' career is one of contact rates in the vicinity of 85% and hit rates about 35%, so his history does not portend .400 potential. We expect that a correction will be coming soon.

[Hache Man]

Value is always relative

With the first month of the season in the books, one of the pieces of advice fantasy owners are always told is they should be selling high on guys who've overachieved in April. That's fine, but what usually isn't included in those statements is whom to acquire in return for those hot starters.

For instance, if you own Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96 ERA, 32/2 K/BB ratio), would someone actually give you an ace such as Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander or C.C. Sabathia for him? Probably not. Those owners have made significant investments on those staff anchors, and Lee doesn't have the same track record.

Could you get Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chien-Ming Wang or Scott Kazmir? Doubtful. Lee isn't in their class just yet.

Then again, what if Lee isn't overachieving as much as everyone thinks? He did win 18 games in 2005, and that strikeout-to-walk ratio can't be ignored.

Would you still be "selling high" on Lee if all you can get is Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett? Or could Lee end up being just as good — or better — than either one of them this season? Selling high is often easier said than done.

Defining 'value'

Perhaps it's a little easier to compare hitters — and easier to trade them, too. The biggest problem is trade offers rarely appear to be beneficial to both parties.

If the object is to gain more than you give up, what happens if everyone is using the same source to analyze player values?

Any number of websites that host fantasy leagues will rank players using a formula based on standard scoring categories. Other sites convert player stats to a dollar value that's based on each team's budget. Occasionally, it helps to get a fresh perspective.

Craig Messmer of Bergen County, N.J., was in between jobs when he came up with a new statistic. He was looking for something that measured both run production and efficiency. So he developed "P/E average," which combines runs produced (runs plus RBI minus home runs) and bases advanced (total bases, walks, hit by pitch, net steals). The runs-produced total is multiplied by two to make the two categories relatively equal, and the total is then divided by plate appearances.

The result looks similar to an OPS number (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), but Messmer says it's a better indicator of true offensive production.

In his book, Stat One, Messmer points out that Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz finished with almost identical OPS figures (1.067 to 1.066) last season. But A-Rod's P/E average of 1.415 was much higher than Ortiz's 1.280, partly because he scored 27 more runs and stole 21 more bases.

Messmer says P/E averages can also be applied to fantasy baseball. So I picked out 16 relatively comparable players (all corner infielders or outfielders) who have generally performed above expectations this season to see how they stacked up through May 1.

Both OPS and P/E average have the same four at the top of their rankings, but the P/E average identifies one player in particular, Mark Reynolds, who could be overlooked because of his unremarkable OPS. Looking at Reynolds' dollar value in a standard 13-team, NL-only 5x5 league, the P/E average seems to be more accurate.

	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OPS	P/E Avg.	April R$
Nate McLouth	24	7	25	2	.330	1.047	1.303	$39
Mark Reynolds	23	7	24	3	.245	.830	1.295	$37
Conor Jackson	24	5	25	1	.348	1.060	1.505	$35
Carlos Quentin	21	7	21	2	.298	1.052	1.375	$35
Pat Burrell	18	8	26	0	.333	1.131	1.336	$35
Josh Hamilton	16	6	32	0	.322	.947	1.215	$34
Josh Willingham	16	6	16	2	.341	1.043	1.208	$29
Casey Kotchman	14	6	19	1	.340	.980	1.118	$29
Emil Brown	17	2	26	1	.292	.753	1.186	$27
Ryan Church	21	3	19	1	.316	.855	1.191	$26
Eric Hinske	13	6	15	2	.293	1.038	1.189	$26
Raul Ibanez	16	5	20	0	.296	.826	.992	$25
Rick Ankiel	17	5	16	0	.290	.892	1.071	$23
Justin Upton	14	5	15	0	.327	.926	1.000	$23
Fred Lewis	17	2	7	4	.337	.952	1.029	$22
Troy Glaus	9	1	21	0	.260	.755	.974	$14

Besides evaluating potential trade candidates, Messmer says P/E average can be especially helpful in salary-cap leagues when trying to determine the value at each position.

Of course, P/E average only reflects what players have already accomplished. What it doesn't do is project how those players will perform the rest of the way.

For that, we turn to Babson College in Babson Park, Mass., where Elaine Allen teaches a class on data mining. About a year and a half ago, she and her students decided to see whether their studies could be applied to an important real-world topic, fantasy baseball.

Using tools developed by the Spotfire division of Tibco Software, Allen and fellow professor George Recck used 21 statistical categories to determine an index value for each player.

The conclusions were published last April and validated some long-held fantasy axioms. For example, consistency is more desirable than performance spikes. Another is that players who score a lot of runs (even if runs are not a category) help create a balanced and successful fantasy team.

One of the names that kept coming up was particularly painful for the professors, who just happen to be located in the heart of Red Sox Nation.

Derek Jeter.

"I don't like Jeter overall, but he is incredibly consistent in terms of average and what he provides," Recck admits. "He is almost money in the bank."

However, one of the surprising aspects of the research was a connection between some relatively minor statistics and a player's overall value.

"Walks, doubles, caught stealing and strikeouts had a statistically significant (positive) impact on the index," Allen says.

	R	CS	2B	BB	K	BA	SLUG	OPS	R$
Nate McLouth	24	3	12	15	15	.330	.553	1.047	$39
Mark Reynolds	23	0	4	13	38	.245	.438	.830	$37
Conor Jackson	24	0	5	10	8	.348	.542	1.060	$35
Carlos Quentin	21	1	4	14	15	.298	.500	1.052	$35
Pat Burrell	18	0	9	22	20	.333	.546	1.131	$35
Josh Hamilton	16	0	10	11	15	.322	.504	.947	$34
Josh Willingham	16	0	5	9	16	.341	.574	1.043	$29
Casey Kotchman	14	0	6	9	6	.340	.527	.980	$29
Emil Brown	17	0	4	4	10	.292	.407	.753	$27
Ryan Church	21	1	4	10	22	.316	.418	.855	$26
Eric Hinske	13	1	5	15	12	.293	.522	1.038	$26
Raul Ibanez	16	1	5	9	15	.296	.441	.826	$25
Rick Ankiel	17	0	8	13	20	.290	.460	.892	$23
Justin Upton	14	0	6	9	26	.327	.496	.926	$23
Fred Lewis	17	2	8	13	20	.337	.467	.952	$22
Troy Glaus	9	0	12	14	21	.260	.353	.755	$14

So could that mean Nate McLouth's breakout just might be legitimate? He's among the NL leaders in doubles and runs scored, plus his walk total has him among the league leaders in on-base percentage.

Or what about Troy Glaus? He strikes out a lot and has only one homer, but he is one of the NL leaders in doubles. Could those doubles possibly turn into home runs as the season progresses?

The advanced research says yes.

What next?

Accumulating information usually isn't a problem in fantasy baseball. Figuring out what to do with it is the tricky part. That's where things such as P/E average and data-mining research come in to play.

They're all part of the ongoing quest for that extra edge.

Perhaps that one extra bit of information could be the difference between a solid season and a championship.

[Hache Man]

The New Mariners in Town

The Mariners are in panic mode. The front office clearly thought their 88-74 campaign last season wasn't a fluke, as they traded away plenty of young talent for 2009 free-agent-to-be Erik Bedard. Many fans were roped in too when they saw an 88-win team add an ace-quality pitcher, but the Mariner's 79-83 Pythagorean record from 2007 told a much more realistic story. That they're now 14-19 and 6 ½ games out of first place seems about right for a team of this talent, but that clearly isn't what baseball operations told management when they mortgaged the future for Bedard.

Now, general manager Bill Bavasi and company are fighting for their jobs. Bavasi took over in the winter of 2003 and has overseen the Mariners through three losing seasons and they're fluky strong 2007 campaign. Perhaps that wouldn't be so bad considering how poor the team was when he took over, but Bavasi has been given one of the league's highest payrolls to work with and he's made plenty of terrible trades and signings during his tenure. He was considered on the hot seat before the 2007 season, and he won't be with the Mariners in 2009 if they continue to struggle.

So now, the Mariners have to overreact to any situation that might provide an upgrade. They started by eating Brad Wilkerson's $3 million salary this week after watching him play for just five weeks. The club also called up prized prospects Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien, but delaying these callups a week could have resulted in the Mariners controlling their rights through 2013 instead of 2012. And so sets the tone for the rest of the season. If Balentien and Clement aren't producing relatively soon, they'll quickly get shuttled back to the minors for other options. It seems almost too easy to predict a desperation trade at the deadline that involves the Mariners giving up too much young talent. It's something to keep in mind when bidding on Clement and Balentien this week, and in other situations through the remainder of the season.

Major League Callups

Nick Adenhart – RHP Angels – Adenhart has seemingly been an atypical prospect his whole career. A surefire first rounder the spring before the 2004 draft, Adenhart threw out his elbow and eventually had Tommy John surgery one week after being selected in the 14th round by the Angels. Adenhart had a scholarship to North Carolina, but he turned it down for a $710,000 bonus and began the process of rehabbing. Adenhart returned late in the 2005 season and had a promising debut over 50 innings in Rookie ball. However, he broke out for Single-A Cedar Rapids as a 19-year-old in 2006, and also looked good after a late season promotion to High-A Rancho Cucamonga.

At this point, Adenhart was a fun story and looked like the Tommy John surgery wouldn't cost him a beat in reaching his previous top prospect billing. However, his 2007 season forced us to reevaluate the right-hander again. Adenhart was plenty young for Double-A at age 20, but his 116/65 K/BB ratio in 153 innings left much to be desired. Adenhart's 3.65 ERA was a little better, in part because he allowed just seven homers, a theme that's been consistent throughout his minor league career.

Did Adenhart not have the stuff to retire more advanced hitters, or was he simply adjusting to a high level of competition at a very young age? Time will tell for sure, but I lean towards the former. Adenhart sits in the low-90s with his two-seamer, and can still touch 94 or 95 MPH when necessary. Neither his changeup or curveball is an elite pitch, but both are plus offerings and his changeup especially gets plenty of swings and misses. More consistent command and a better approach will be necessary for him to continue succeeding, but since the stuff is there his poor peripherals can be forgiven.

Adenhart was off to a similar start in Triple-A this season, posting a poor 19/15 K/BB ratio but a very impressive 0.87 ERA in 31 innings. That he had yet to give up a homer can be attributed to all of the downward movement on his pitches, but the 18 hits Adenhart allowed involved a bit of luck. Now up with the Angels, Adenhart was rocked for five runs in just two-plus innings in his big league debut, walking five and striking out none. His second start also wasn't much better, as Adenhart walked five, struck out three, and gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings. Given his peripherals, this shouldn't be all that surprising. Adenhart still needs to better harness his stuff and improve his command, but since he's just 21 years old his future remains very bright. The key here will be to remain patient despite some bumps in the road, and to keep expectations low for the short-term.

Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only formats; stash away in keeper leagues.

Wladimir Balentien – OF Mariners – As discussed above, Balentien is taking Brad Wilkerson's roster spot and playing time in right field. Indeed, the Mariners have started Balentien in each game since being promoted, and he's gone 7-for-25 with a double, two homers, and eight strikeouts during that stint. And that's just about what we should expect from Balentien given his history.

A big, 6'2", 220-pound right-hander, Balentien has always been known for his big hacks and in-game home run power. He's smacked at least 22 homers in each of the last three seasons in the minors, though that's come with 505 strikeouts in 1,413 at-bats. However, Balentien seemed to make improvements while cutting his strikeouts from 140 to 105 in more at-bats last season, and he gained plenty of buzz with a strong first half before fading down the stretch. When he's on, Balentien is one of the most feared hitters in the minors. Greater consistency in pitch selection is all that separates him from being a real force, as he certainly has the swing and physical ability to be a 30-plus homer threat in the majors.

Balentien can't be counted on to hit better than .270, but he should be a source of at least 15 home runs from here on out. 20 or more is a possibility if he gets hot, but that should be considered his upside given the 23-year-old's need for more refinement. That Balentien has thrown in 29 steals over the last two years gives him a little more value in fantasy leagues, as 10 steals the rest of the way can't be ruled out. Since there's nothing stopping him from taking the right field job and running with it for the rest of the year, Balentien is worth pursuing more aggressively than some more polished products who don't have a strong hold on a starting gig.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only one-year and keeper leagues; monitor in deep keeper mixed leagues.

Brett Carroll – OF Marlins – One of, if not the, minor's hottest hitters, Carroll gets the call after hitting .418/.480/.896 with nine homers and an 18/8 K/BB in 67 at-bats for Triple-A Albuquerque. Carroll spent 10 days on the big league roster to start the season and also was given some at-bats as a bench player for the Marlins last season. He was a combined 10-for-57 in the two stints in the majors, but it's hard to get on him for poor production while playing so sporadically.

Carroll was a productive college player for Middle Tennessee State University, but he struggled in the minors prior to his breakout 2007 season. Most of that breakout was spent at Albuquerque, where Carroll hit .314/.361/.597 in 318 at-bats. However, expectations need to be tempered some, as Albuquerque is a very favorable park for hitters and Carroll has shown big home-road splits over the last two years. Still, his current hot streak is much more than a park-inflated mirage, and the Marlins may give the right-hander a few starts against southpaws while he's back in the majors. It will likely take continued playing time for him to remain in a groove, but he's intriguing enough to watch.

Recommendation: Monitor in one-year NL-only leagues.

Jeff Clement – C Mariners – One of the best high school catching prospects in the 2002 draft, Clement had a strong commitment to USC and thus slipped to the 12th round before going unsigned. Clement made clubs immediately regret not giving him a huge bonus offer when he smacked 21 home runs as a freshman for USC. The left-handed hitter wasn't quite as good the next season, but Clement had his best overall season as a Junior with a .348/.472/.617 line that included more walks than strikeouts. That he hit just 15 homers was somewhat disappointing given his freshman season and light-tower power in batting practice, but he did hit 17 doubles and his plate discipline was much better.

The third overall pick in the 2005 draft, Clement had a strong debut in Single-A and was jumped to Double-A San Antonio to start the 2006 campaign. However, he suffered a knee injury early in the season that required surgery and missed six weeks, then was assigned to Triple-A Tacoma after returning. Clement struggled mightily, posting an ugly 668 OPS and striking out more frequently than before. It's quite likely that the knee, or his elbow after having a bone chip removed from it during the same procedure, was bothering him. Not surprisingly, Clement bounced back by posting a .275/.370/.497 line with an 88/61 K/BB in 455 at-bats with Tacoma in 2007. A late season promotion to the Mariners also went well, setting Clement up for a big 2008 campaign.

The now 24-year-old Clement was once again back in Tacoma at the start of the year, and he was having his best season to date with a .397 batting average, five homers, eight doubles, and an amazing 22/12 K/BB in 78 at-bats. Clement hasn't been as dominating prior to this season in the minors, but he has the physical tools, swing, raw power, and plate discipline to be an elite hitter at the catching position. He'd be far from the first catcher to fully develop late offensively while working on their defense, so I'm expecting Clement to post even better numbers in the majors than he did in the minors prior to this year. And now with Kenji Johjima locked up for three more years as the starting catcher, Clement's offensive maturation may accelerate since he'll be primarily a designated hitter and only a part-time catcher.

I'd be surprised if Clement isn't the league's best offensive catcher at some point in the next six years, so he's worth pursuing very aggressively in all leagues. Those in one-year leagues should also pursue him, as he's taking over for Jose Vidro at DH against right-handers. He hasn't done so well by going 3-for-20 with no extra-base hits and a 9/3 K/BB mark so far, but patience will be rewarded here, assuming the Mariners are willing to continue playing him.

Recommendation: Pursue aggressively in keeper leagues, AL-only leagues, and two-catcher mixed leagues.

Sean Gallagher – RHP Cubs – One of the more underrated pitching prospects around, Gallagher doesn't get much press despite an impressive resume. A 12th round pick in the 2004 draft, Gallagher looked strong for Single-A Peoria the following season with a 2.71 ERA and 139/55 K/BB mark. Bumped up to High-A as a 20-year-old to start the 2006 season, Gallagher continued pitching well with a fantastic 80/21 K/BB and 2.30 ERA in 78 1/3 innings. The right-hander continued to strike batters out and limit runs once moving to Double-A mid-season, but his walk rate jumped all the way up to 55 in 86 1/3 innings. Still, Gallagher was one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A and still was preventing runs, making him an intriguing prospect.

Gallagher was back at Double-A to begin last season, though he was promoted to Triple-A mid-season. Combined he posted a 3.10 ERA and 91/37 K/BB ratio in 101 2/3 innings. He also made eight relief appearances in the majors and was hit hard for an 8.59 ERA while struggling with his command. However, most of those struggles can be forgiven, as they came over four different stints with the Cubs as they continuously yanked him between a minor league rotation and big league bullpen. Back at Triple-A Iowa to start the season, Gallagher had a 3.10 ERA and 30/9 K/BB mark in 29 innings of work.

Gallagher is back in the majors to work out of the bullpen, despite his failures there last year. He's probably the Cubs fifth or sixth best starter, but he's still not close to being considered for a role. Kevin Hart's struggles and Sean Marshall's injury help, but the Cubs wouldn't be using Gallagher out of the pen if he was really next in line. That said, with his low-90s fastball, excellent curve, and serviceable changeup, he has the arsenal to be a long-term No. 3 starter who eats up plenty of above average innings. One can hope his talent will win out eventually, so Gallagher needs to be stashed away in NL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Stash away in NL-only formats.

A.J. Murray – LHP Rangers – With Jason Jennings getting sent to the disabled list without a timetable for return, the Rangers appear to have an opening in the rotation that will last more than a few weeks. Murray will be the choice for now, and he looked capable enough while holding the Athletics to three runs – two earned – in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut. A 19th round pick way back in 2000, Murray has battled shoulder injuries throughout his career, including missing all of the 2004 and 2006 seasons. He's generally shown above average strikeout rates when healthy, but his command is poor, he's already 26 years old, and his fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. His changeup and off-speed pitch could fool enough hitters the first time through and he does get the Mariners in each of his next two starts, but he's still not a recommended option in the short or long-term.

Recommendation: Ignore in AL-only formats.

Darrell Rasner – RHP Yankees – Rasner just missed qualifying as a prospect when he was promoted last week, but he's close enough and intriguing enough to take a look at. A 2002 second-round selection by the Expos, the Nationals left Rasner exposed on waivers in February 2006 despite good command and a lively sinker. The Yankees claimed him for free and then used him at a variety of levels that season. He was particularly impressive in 10 starts for Triple-A Columbus as a 25-year-old, posting a 2.76 ERA and 47/11 K/BB mark in 58 2/3 innings. Rasner also didn't look overwhelmed in brief trials in the majors, so he was a candidate for extended time in the majors in 2007.

Indeed, Rasner was awarded a rotation spot last spring when injuries struck, and he made three solid starts for the Yankees before being sent to the minors. Back in the majors in just a few weeks, Rasner made three more appearances before being hit on the finger with a comebacker. The finger turned out to be fractured and required surgery, effectively ending Rasner's season. Back in Triple-A to start the 2008 campaign, Rasner had a 0.87 ERA and 27/6 K/BB mark in 31 innings before his callup. In his season debut on Sunday, Rasner limited the Mariners to two runs in six innings while striking out four and walking none.

Rasner is your typical finesse right-hander, getting by with his sinking high-80s fastball and a variety of solid yet unexciting secondary offerings. He'll need to continue hitting his spots and limiting long balls, and if he does he could be a solid enough 4th starter for the Yankees. The run support he'll be afforded makes him a better option in fantasy leagues, and his lack of strikeouts means he's a better 4x4 option. Rasner will likely remain in the rotation until after the All-Star break, when Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and perhaps Ian Kennedy will all be options to replace Rasner and fellow fill-in Kei Igawa. Since he's likely good for a few wins while starting for two months, he's worth throwing a few dollars at in AL-only leagues.

Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues.

[Hache Man]

GoGo Cycle
One night after Joe Mauer's double with one out in the ninth inning saved Minnesota from being no-hit, the same offense that ranked as the league's second-worst erupted for 13 runs on 16 hits Wednesday against Mark Buehrle, who had been 20-10 with a 3.69 ERA versus the Twins. As if that weren't enough, Carlos Gomez hit for the Twins' first cycle since Kirby Puckett in 1986, Nick Punto collected five RBIs, and Livan Hernandez took a shutout into the ninth inning.

And people wonder why I love baseball so much.

Gomez was hitting just .230/.247/.310 prior to being benched for one game on April 23. In eight games since then he's gone 13-for-30 (.433) with two homers, five total extra-base hits, and four steals. He's now up to .282/.306/.427 in 28 games overall, which along with going 13-for-14 swiping bases and playing excellent defense in center field is enough to make up for a hideous 29-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Flaws and all, Gomez is on track to hit .280 with 60 total extra-base hits, 105 runs, and 70 steals as a 22-year-old, although keeping up that pace will be nearly impossible if he ends up with 160 strikeouts and only 15 walks. Of late Gomez has looked like he might be just a modicum of plate discipline away from emerging as one of baseball's better all-around center fielders in his first full season, although the Twins aren't exactly known for teaching young hitters how to show patience.

While Gomez somehow manages to overshadow both a five-RBI performance from Punto and Hernandez improving to 5-1, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Cliff Lee and Chien-Ming Wang squared off Wednesday in a matchup of unbeaten pitchers, with Lee winning the battle by shutting out the Yankees for seven innings. He's now 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA, which is absolutely astonishing given that he was demoted to the minors last season after posting a 6.43 ERA in Cleveland and came into this year with a 4.64 ERA in 125 career starts. It's natural to remain somewhat skeptical of Lee's amazing start, but don't write it off as a fluke.

Lee has made some significant adjustments, beginning with using his fastball about 15 percent more often. He's also cut way down on changeups, particularly against left-handed hitters, who knocked him around to the tune of .327/.385/.533 last year despite Lee being a southpaw. Beyond that, his excellent 39-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests that he's far less likely to see his luck run out than, say, Gavin Floyd. In other words, his deal with the devil may last for a while.

* Chris Iannetta disappointed a ton of fantasy owners last year, but remained one of my favorite sleeper picks this year based on his excellent minor-league track record. In my column about NL-only hitting sleepers back in February, the section about Iannetta advised that he "could still move past Yorvit Torrealba and make a big impact" and continued to possess "strong long-term upside if he gets on track." Sure enough, that's exactly what's happened.

Iannetta was seemingly facing an uphill battle to get another shot as the Rockies' starter behind the plate once Torrealba signed a multi-year deal this winter, but hitting .350 can change an awful lot. He started over Torrealba for the fourth straight game Wednesday, knocking in two runs with a game-winning triple. Iannetta is up to .353/.414/.686 in 58 trips to the plate, which shows why 200 games in the minors should be trusted over 50 games in the majors. He's for real.

* Wednesday saw the Braves' bullpen get hit by a slew of elbow-related bad news, including the announcement that Peter Moylan will have season-ending Tommy John surgery. Beyond that, Rafael Soriano had to cut his throwing session short due to elbow soreness and Mike Gonzalez's comeback from Tommy John surgery of his own hit a snag. Soriano and Gonzalez may still be back within weeks, but for now Manny Acosta's ninth-inning duties are looking pretty secure.

* Manager Dusty Baker surprisingly handed rookie Joey Votto the starting job at first base early this season and then surprisingly stuck with him recently despite a two-week homerless stretch. Votto broke out of that slump in a big way Wednesday, going deep three times as the Reds hit a total of seven long balls in a blowout win over the Cubs. Votto is now batting .302/.362/.583 with seven homers through 32 games, so Scott Hatteberg should get comfortable on the bench.

* While the Reds' lineup was going nuts, Edinson Volquez had 10 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, slicing his NL-leading ERA to 1.06. Baker allowing the 24-year-old right-hander to throw 118 pitches in a game that was out of reach by the fifth inning is questionable and worth watching going forward given his track record of overworking young starters. Volquez has now cracked the 100-pitch barrier in five straight starts, including two outings of 110-plus pitches.

AL Quick Hits: Shaun Marcum was one out from a complete-game shutout Wednesday against the Rays, but B.J. Upton ruined things with a two-run double … Rich Harden (shoulder) is set to return from the disabled list Sunday versus the Rangers, with Chad Gaudin shifting to the bullpen to make room in the rotation … Mariners fans had the indignity of watching Miguel Cairo start at first base Wednesday when Richie Sexson was a late scratch because of what the team called a family issue … Brandon Inge said Tuesday that he's willing to catch when needed and would be open to becoming the Tigers' starter next season if Ivan Rodriguez isn't re-signed … Michael Young left Wednesday's game in the first inning with a hip injury and Ramon Vazquez replaced him at shortstop … Placido Polanco was hitting .140 through April 24, but after collecting five hits Wednesday he's 22-for-54 (.407) since … With Jeff Mathis sitting in the midst of a 4-for-32 slump, Mike Napoli started Wednesday and went 3-for-4 with a homer … John Patterson had a setback at extended spring training and has been shut down because of continued forearm soreness.

NL Quick Hits: Adam Wainwright tossed seven shutout innings Wednesday versus the Rockies, but got stuck with a no-decision when the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead … Ryan Church went 3-for-4 with a homer Wednesday and is hitting .328 with 24 RBIs and 27 runs through 31 games … Mike Jacobs exited Wednesday's game due to a quadriceps injury, with Wes Helms replacing him at first base … Mark Mulder has been shut down on his minor-league rehab assignment because of a strained rotator cuff, making it even less likely that he'll have an impact this season … Manager Manny Acta announced Wednesday that Mike O'Connor will replace Matt Chico in the rotation beginning Saturday against the Marlins … Jack Wilson (calf) has experienced a setback in his recovery and is now expected to miss at least two more weeks … Making his first start since rejoining the rotation in place of Yovani Gallardo (knee), Dave Bush allowed six runs Wednesday against the Marlins … Ryan Ludwick went 2-for-4 with a homer Wednesday and is now hitting .356/.424/.701 on the year.

[Hache Man]

A new Rocky Mountain Way

It's been a tough week to be an imaginary creature in the major leagues. First, the White Sox violated some blow-up dolls with baseball bats, and then Mr. Redlegs was decapitated in a tragic accident before the Reds game on Wednesday. There's a trifecta in play here, and Dinger the dinosaur might want to watch his back.

Here are this week's waiver options:

National League

Chris Iannetta – C – COL - Iannetta has now started over Yorvit Torrealba in four consecutive games, and has driven in six runs while doing so. His current .353 batting average is bring propped up by an astronomically high BABIP, but there's a definite track record this sort of success: Iannetta hit .303/.409/.509 in 803 minor league at-bats. Don't expect a ton of home runs, but Iannetta should be a solid fantasy contributor for as long as he sees the majority of playing time in Colorado. Don't be scared by the fact that he's not starting on Thursday: it's a day game after a night game on a getaway day.
Mixed Leagues: Use while hot. NL-only Leagues: Should be owned.

Jo-Jo Reyes – SP - ATL - In his first game filling in for John Smoltz, Jo-Jo Reyes allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings. He walked three in the appearance, but he also struck out five. Reyes will be making his second start against the Padres this afternoon, and a solid performance could make his spot in the rotation more permanent. That being said, he'll face Philadelphia, Oakland and Arizon in his next three starts, so he's probably best used in NL-only leagues for the time being. atlantabraves.com
Mixed Leagues:Worth a flier. NL-only Leagues: Worth using.

Ryan Ludwick – OF – STL - Ludwick was a top center field prospect before fracturing his hip in 2002, but he didn't show much life until hitting .267-14-52 in 303 at-bats last season. Ludwick is off to an even better start this year, with a .356 average and five home runs in just 87 at-bats. He's part of a deep outfield and will spend his fair share of time on the bench, but he's also one of the better pinch-hitters in the game. He's also shown that he hits righties just as well as he does lefties, so it's quite possible the Cardinals will finally start giving him more regular starts.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Worth owning.

Homer Bailey – SP – CIN - Matt Belisle hasn't been impressive since getting called up from Triple-A, but Homer Bailey hasn't capitalized on the situation by allowing 11 earned runs in his last 20 innings of work. Still, it's starting to be pretty clear that Belisle isn't a worthy long-term investment, and Bailey is still sporting a 2.72 ERA at Triple-A. Bailey remains one of the top prospects in the game, and could be a valuable fantasy contributor once he gets another chance.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Take a flier.

Manny Parra – SP – MIL - Parra has plenty of potential, but so far this season he's letting way too many people on base. Parras has given up 38 hits and walked 17 in just 27 2/3 innings. Still, Parra proved he has the skills to succeed in this league last year, and should turn it around at some point. He's not worth owning until he proves he can improve his control, and he only has a couple weeks to do that before facing the possibility of demotion. He makes for a fun gamble.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Stash him.

Blake DeWitt – 3B – LAD - Since being recalled after a one-game stint in the minors, DeWitt is hitting .383 with 13 RBI in 34 at-bats. DeWitt also has two home runs, but one was a bit of a fluke inside-the-parker. Still, Joe Torre has backed off earlier statements that Nomar would get his job back once he comes off the DL, and DeWitt's production seems to be keeping Andy LaRoche in the minor leagues for now. LaRoche has been hitting well at Triple-A, though, and will likely replace DeWitt once the current hot streak comes to an end. Long-term, Adam LaRoche is the better investment.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Use while hot.

Brett Carroll – OF – Marlins – Carroll was hitting .418 with nine home runs and 23 RBI in just 67 at-bats for Triple-A Albuquerque. Granted, Albuquerque is a nice place to hit, but Carroll was still doing plenty of damage on the road. In Florida, Carroll will provide depth in the outfield while Josh Willingham is on the disabled list. He'll serve primarily as a pinch-hitter, but could get a couple starts against lefties. If he can get on a hot streak, he has a chance to stick in the majors.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor. NL-only Leagues: Monitor.

Mike O'Connor – SP – WAS - O'Connor missed most of last season with an elbow injury, but had posted a 1.96 ERA in four Triple-A starts before getting called up to the Nationals in late April. In the big leagues, he's sporting a 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, with most of the damage coming against the Pirates. He'll replace Matt Chico in the Nationals' lineup, but just because Manny Acta is going to use him doesn't mean you should.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. NL-only Leagues: Stay Away.


American League

Garrett Olson - SP – BAL - Olsen has made two impressive starts for the Orioles, and will stick in the starting rotation at least until Adam Loewen returns, which might not be for another month and a half. He's not the flashiest prospect, but he has compiled a 2.95 ERA and a 145-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 152.1 innings at Triple-A. In his two starts for the Orioles he's tallied a 2.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, but ultimately he figures to be a middle-of-the-rotation type starter. His next two starts are against the Royals and the Nationals, so there's no harm grabbing him and seeing if he can stay effective.
Mixed Leagues: Flier material. AL-only: Worth owning.

Santiago Casilla – RP – OAK - Through 17 1/3 innings, Santiago Casilla has 21 strikeouts and just three walks. He hasn't allowed a run and has given up just nine hits in that same period. Casilla would be a candidate for saves if something ever happened to Huston Street (injury or trade), but he should put up solid ratios and tally plenty of strikeouts in the meantime.
Mixed Leagues: Worth Consideration. AL-only: Worth owning.

David DeJesus – OF – KC - DeJesus has finally managed to stay healthy enough to string together a few games. When he has been in the lineup, he's has been solid, hitting in 13 of the 16 games in which he's played. He should score close to 100 runs sitting atop the Royals lineup, and his average should also bounce back from the disappointing .260 he posted in 2007.
Mixed Leagues: Fourth outfielder. AL-only: Worth owning.

Darrell Rasner – SP – NYY - Rasner had a 0.87 ERA and 27/6 K/BB mark in 31 minor league innings before limiting the Mariners to two runs in six on Sunday. Still, he's a finesse pitcher who could be bombed if his control is off. He shouldn't be relied on against better offenses, but he should be able to accumulate some wins while pitching for the Yankees. Don't start him against the Tigers on Saturday.
Mixed Leagues: Streaming candidate. AL-only: Worth owning.

Jack Cust – OF – OAK - Over the course of the season, Cust is a borderline fantasy option. He often sits against lefties, but his average still leaves plenty to be desired. He's a streaky hitter who tends to hit homers in bursts, though, and when he's hot he makes a solid option in the outfield. He's worth using until he cools off again.
Mixed Leagues: Worth consideration. AL-only: Worth owning.

Vicente Padilla – SP – TEX - Padilla has gotten off to a great start and threw seven shutout innings against the Mariners on Wednesday night. He has a stellar 3.02 ERA, but his 33/18 K/BB ratio doesn't support that he'll be able to maintain this pace. He hasn't finished with an ERA under since 2003, and has proven incredibly inconsistent during his time in the majors. Eventually he'll string together enough bad outings to counteract this recent upswing. You don't want him on your roster when that happens.
Mixed Leagues: Monitor him. AL-only: Play him while he's hot.

Matt Joyce – OF – DET - The Tigers promoted Matt Joyce to take the roster spot of the demoted Jacque Jones, and Joyce figures to see significant playing time in right field. He doesn't hit for much average, but he has decent pop and will be hit seventh in a stacked Detroit offense. The Tigers have a very flexible lineup, though, so Joyce's playing time will depend on his production. He's 2-for-7 with a run and an RBI through two games.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. AL-only Leagues: Monitor him.

Brandon Boggs – OF – TEX - Brandon Boggs went 4-for-6 with a homer in his first two games after being called up. Since then, he's found a consistent place in the Rangers' everyday lineup and has turned it into a .323/.353/.516 line. In 32 at-bats, he's struck out twelve times while walking just twice. Boggs is part of a crowded outfield and is no lock to stay with the team once Marlon Byrd is healthy, making him a poor investment at this time.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. AL-only: Monitor him.

Ben Francisco – OF – CLE - The Indians designated Jason Michaels for assignment and recalled outfielder Ben Francisco to take his roster space. Francisco figures to work in a platoon with David Dellucci, getting at-bats against left-handed pitchers. The part-time schedule won't merit an addition to anything but deeper AL-only squads.
Mixed Leagues: Stay Away. AL-only: Monitor him.

[Hache Man]

Can call-ups contribute?
When right-hander Nick Adenhart made his major league debut May 1, he was the latest in a series of high-profile call-ups that occurred over the past few weeks.

Adenhart came into this season as the Los Angeles Angels' No. 2 prospect, as ranked by Deric McKamey in Minor League Baseball Analyst. The team's No. 1 prospect, infielder Brandon Wood, had also gotten the call.

Joining them in the majors last week were the Seattle Mariners' No. 2 prospect, catcher Jeff Clement, as well as their No. 5, outfielder Wladimir Balentien. And the Arizona Diamondbacks' top minor leaguer, right-hander Max Scherzer, also made his debut last week.

Has there ever been such a succession of top prospects seeing their first major league action in a short period of time in the middle of the season?

Actually, the phenomenon is not unusual at all. Within a three-week period last spring, an even higher-profile group made their major league debuts: Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (No. 2 prospect), New York Yankees right-hander Phil Hughes (No. 1), San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum (No. 1), Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence (No. 1) and then-Atlanta Braves catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (No. 2). Within two weeks after that, the Milwaukee Brewers' No. 2 prospect, Ryan Braun, joined the group.

Late April and early May is a prime time for these types of advancements. Teams have gotten about a month to assess what their roster looks like and can analyze what holes might need to be filled because of injury or under-performance. Going back even further, 2006 saw teams call up top prospects Jonathan Broxton, Rich Hill, Howie Kendrick and Dustin McGowan. In 2005, it was Scott Baker, Ryan Howard and Chien-Ming Wang getting their first major league starts.

However, what is important to note in all this is that we only tend to see and remember the success stories. Scherzer made a memorable debut — striking out seven in 4 1/3 scoreless innings — which might be the springboard to a productive career. Adenhart did not fare as well (five runs, five walks in two innings), and if he continues to struggle, he might buy himself a ticket back to Class AAA Salt Lake.

Similarly, we forget that also among last year's high-profile spring call-ups were New York Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez (ranked No. 4) and Diamondbacks right-hander Dustin Nippert (No. 4). Their major league stays were short. And so there are no guarantees that the Clements and the Balentiens are going to stick. Even Hill, two years into his major league career, was not immune, getting sent down by the Chicago Cubs this week to work on his control.

The business of differentiating between future stars and also-rans is complicated. Michael Lewis' Moneyball highlighted the methodologies of "pure scouting" and "statistical analysis." While these two schools of thought have had a bit of an adversarial relationship in the past, recent articles have shown that an integrated approach is necessary to maximize success.

In his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James introduced the process of "major league equivalencies" (MLE). This calculates how a minor leaguer's statistics might look in the major leagues, based on conversion formulas for level of competition, park effects and age. MLE formulas provide insight into the potential for young players, often providing revealing clues that early major league performance does not.

For instance, Dan Uggla boasted a .282 batting average in his rookie season of 2006. However, his MLE showed the skills of a .250 hitter, which is how he has batted ever since. Of course, players do develop as they get older, so MLE are not infallible. Had the Boston Red Sox known how Hanley Ramirez would develop, they might have had second thoughts about dealing him to the Florida Marlins as part of the deal for right-hander Josh Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell. Ramirez's MLE provided absolutely no clue as to the hitter he would become.

Still, MLE remains one of many useful tools in evaluating prospects. Here is how the recent call-up surge shapes up through the MLE lens:

* Nick Adenhart: The Angels rookie was 10-8 with a 3.65 ERA at Class AA Arkansas last year and struck out 6.8 batters per nine innings. This was a remarkable performance for a 21-year-old. The major league equivalent of that performance is a 4.59 ERA and a 5.8 K/9 rate. These are still serviceable numbers for a player this young.

His early 2008 stats at Class AAA have been outwardly impressive — 4-0, 0.87 ERA in 31 innings — however, his 15 walks raise a red flag.

* Wladimir Balentien: The 23-year-old Mariners slugger made his debut last year, going 2-for-3 with a home run in three games. He should stick around longer this time.

Balentien batted .291 for Class AAA Tacoma (Wash.) in 2007 with 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases. MLE converts those stats to a .256 average, 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases. While those might seem like middling numbers, they represent significant growth from previous seasons. Balentien was an undisciplined free swinger who has cut down on his strikeouts. For comparison's sake, his 2006 MLE batting average was .216.

Thus far in 2008, he batted only .254 with six home runs in Tacoma, so the ride might be a bit bumpy in the early going.

* Jeff Clement: The 23-year-old Mariners catcher had a 16-at-bat cup of coffee last year, batting .375 with two home runs. That was coming off a 20-homer, .275 season at Tacoma.

MLE brings those numbers down to 16 home runs and a .236 average, which would ordinarily temper our expectations a bit. However, he was raking the ball at Class AAA prior to his call-up, batting .397 (MLE .347) with five home runs in 75 at-bats. Defense has always been an issue, but there will be little question about his bat.

* Max Scherzer: The hard-throwing 23-year-old had a magnificent major league debut after posting a 1.17 ERA in 27 innings this spring at Class AAA Tucson. More notable about that performance was the 38 strikeouts and only three walks, however, his previous history was not always as eye-popping.

At Class AA Mobile (Ala.) last year, Scherzer was 4-4 with a 3.93 ERA, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 73 innings. That MLE converts to an unimpressive 5.20 ERA, 5.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. Before that stop, he pitched 17 innings at Class A Visalia (Calif.) with a 0.53 ERA. He has managed superb numbers in short spurts, which could mean his future will be in the bullpen.

* Brandon Wood: The 23-year-old Angels infielder is one of the top power-hitting prospects in baseball, but his ascent to the majors has not been as fast as scouts had anticipated.

Wood batted .276 with 25 home runs in 2006 at Class AA Arkansas (MLE .236 with 18 homers) and followed up last year batting a similar .272 with 23 home runs at Class AAA Salt Lake (MLE .254 with 20 homers). This spring, he batted .273 with eight home runs in 88 at-bats at Salt Lake. The growth is slow, but the potential remains.

Perhaps there is a more important point to remember when evaluating the potential of rising minor leaguers. How any individual player will perform relative to his talent is largely unknown because there is a psychological element that is vastly unexplored. Some players make the transition to the majors seamlessly, some not, completely regardless of how talented they are. Never forget Rick Ankiel.

[Hache Man]

Webb Surfs to 8-0 Start

Brandon Webb tossed a complete-game Thursday, beating the Phillies to become the first NL pitcher to win his first eight starts of the season since Pedro Martinez did it for the Expos in 1997. Martinez went on to finish 17-8 with a 1.90 ERA and 305 strikeouts that year on his way to the NL Cy Young, which Webb captured in 2006. He tired some in the ninth inning, giving up a pair of runs, but was allowed to finish the game thanks to a low pitch count and good run support.

He got 18 ground-ball outs and four strikeouts, issuing zero walks while slicing his ERA to 2.41. Meanwhile, hours before he took the mound Thursday afternoon the Arizona Republic reported that Webb and the Diamondbacks have resumed long-term contract negotiations. "Yeah, some progress has been made," Webb said. "We've been talking a little bit more. We've made some headway. We'll see where it goes." He's already under the team's control through 2010.

While Webb considers putting talks on hold for a while to earn a little extra cash, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* If you look strictly at power numbers Carlos Pena is having a nice follow-up to his breakout 2007 season, because following his eighth long ball Thursday he's on pace for 38 homers after setting a career-high with 46 bombs. However, the rest of his offensive game has been a mess. He's struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances, which ranks second-worst among AL hitters behind only Jack Cust and is up considerably from last season's already high 23 percent.

Beyond that, Pena has 3.1 strikeouts for every walk after posting a much more palatable 1.4-to-1 ratio (142 strikeouts, 103 walks) last season. Not surprising given all the whiffing, Pena is batting .201 overall, has just 16 non-homer hits in 33 games, and is on pace for 35 fewer RBIs than he notched in 2007. If there's any good news, it's that Pena's batting average on balls in play is a measly .240, which is very low even for a plodding slugger.

His career BABIP mark is .291, including .297 last season, which means that even if he continues to strike out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances Pena should see his batting average rise toward .240-250 going forward. He's a career .249 hitter, so asking for much more than that is likely wishful thinking, but .250-35-90 would still make him a solid value given his average draft position. The power has been there and a few more hits will begin falling soon, so stay patient.

* After demoting Mark Redman to the bullpen earlier this week, the Rockies are expected to call up Greg Reynolds from Triple-A to join the rotation Sunday. Reynolds is a 6-foot-7 right-hander who was the second overall pick in the 2006 draft, but those two facts alone vastly overstate his long-term upside. Even at the time of the draft he wasn't thought of as an especially elite prospect and he's battled shoulder problems while putting up mediocre numbers in the minors since then.

His 2.98 ERA in 133 minor-league innings looks nice, but Reynolds has struck out just 80 of the 545 batters he's faced and allowed opponents to hit .331 against him in seven starts at Triple-A this year. He throws strikes and gets plenty of ground balls, which makes him a relatively good fit for Coors Field and a decent prospect, but don't expect him to develop into much more than a solid mid-rotation starter down the line and don't count on him being a fantasy asset right now.

* Justin Verlander's season-long struggles continued Thursday, as he allowed five runs on nine hits versus the Red Sox, matching his loss total from all of last year by falling to 1-6. Despite still getting knocked around, Verlander's velocity has gradually increased since he was consistently down 4-5 miles per hour early in the year and he has a 10-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last two outings after posting a 20/18 mark through his first half-dozen starts. It's something, at least.

* Ryan Ludwick homered twice in a losing effort Thursday, making him 9-for-14 with three homers and three doubles during the Cardinals' four-game series with the Rockies. Ludwick is up to .363 with seven homers and 21 RBIs despite getting a total of just 91 at-bats through St. Louis' first 36 games. Manager Tony La Russa has been hesitant to play Ludwick versus right-handers, opting instead for Chris Duncan and Skip Schumaker, but you've got to think that'll begin to change.

AL Quick Hits: Richie Sexson could be facing a multi-game suspension after charging the mound Thursday and throwing his helmet as Kason Gabbard … Kevin Youkilis homered Thursday for the fifth time in five games, upping his slugging percentage by 150 points over that span … Texas designated Ben Broussard for assignment Thursday, signaling that Frank Catalanotto and Chris Shelton will now split time at first base … With both David Eckstein (hip) and John McDonald (ankle) placed on the disabled list Thursday, Marco Scutaro is suddenly the Blue Jays' starting shortstop … Troy Percival entered Thursday's game with a 0.00 ERA, but blew his first save of the season while allowing three runs … Curtis Granderson went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts Thursday and has now fanned in 10 of his last 22 at-bats … Bartolo Colon (oblique) is scheduled to start Saturday at Triple-A … After being highlighted on this week's NBCSports.com "Fantasy Fix" show, Kevin Slowey came off the shelf Thursday and cruised through four scoreless innings before serving up a pair of homers.

NL Quick Hits: A CT scan taken Thursday showed that Doug Davis' thyroid cancer didn't spread, clearing him to begin a minor-league rehab assignment … Jimmy Rollins (ankle) is scheduled to return from the disabled list and be in the lineup Friday versus the Giants … With Paul Lo Duca (hand) expected to miss 4-6 weeks and Johnny Estrada (elbow) also heading to the DL, 23-year-old Jesus Flores is now the Nationals' starting catcher … An MRI of Rafael Soriano's injured elbow reportedly showed no structural damage, but there's no timetable yet for his return … Kyle Lohse posted a 2.54 ERA through six starts, but after getting clobbered Thursday he's allowed 15 runs over his last two outings to inflate his ERA to 4.87 … A late addition to the lineup Thursday over Yorvit Torrealba, Chris Iannetta continued his hot hitting by driving in two runs … Unable to find a trade for Derrick Turnbow that they liked, the Brewers placed him on irrevocable waivers and may end up sending him to Triple-A … Manager Bruce Bochy said Wednesday that he's hoping to have Omar Vizquel (knee) back this weekend

[Hache Man]

Cano heats up, Igawa stinks up

Rookie and Veteran struggles, the ugly return of Igawa, and ruminations from Schultz in this week's Week That Was.

Kei Igawa: In what has to be the most predictable event of the baseball season this year, Kei Igawa was chewed up and spit out by the Detroit Tigers last night. I told a friend before the game that Yankee fans should be happy if they get 4 innings and 4 runs (imagine, happy with a 9.00 ERA?). Well, "Not even close to O" Kei could not even meet that miniscule standard, allowing 6 runs and 11 hits in only three innings. That Mike Mussina has turned it around and put his miserable 2007 in the rear view mirror and there is no reason to Razz Rasner just highlights what a disappointment Igawa continues to be. The "Kei that opens no locks" continues to leave the Yankees and their fans out in the cold. Please tell me there is no one in fantasy land crazy enough to invest in Igawa. Please!

Jim Edmonds: In a surprising move (at least to this author), the Padres released Jim Edmonds. Sure, Edmonds is a mere shadow of his former self. However, one would think the Padres would have had more patience after spending $6 Million to lure Edmonds in the off season. From a fantasy perspective, there are two things to do. First, hold onto Edmonds if your league has a reserve list. He will land somewhere, and if it is a ballpark with a short right field porch, he may yet hit some dingers. Second, wait for the arrival of Chase Headley. While Jody Gerut got the first call, it is Headley who is heating up in AAA and will be up to stay before too long. (Footnote: I figure that Headley must be good because Doug Dennis tried very hard to convince Rick and me to include Headley in a LABR deal. We held Headley and, if you own him, you should too.)

Bill Bray: The Reds recalled Bill Bray from AAA just days after he was sent down. Those in NL-only leagues should jump on Bray (Rick and I grabbed him in both LABR and Tout). Bray looked good before being sent down and has been absolutely lights out in AAA. Thus far, Bray has blown down 15 hitters in just 9 AAA innings. Another reason to grab Bray now is that his value will go up as the year goes along. Keep in mind that Francisco Cordero faded badly down the stretch last year. Bray could very well steal a bunch of saves before the year is out. Either way, the K's will be there big time.

Freddie Bynum: According to reports, Dave Trembley anointed Freddie Bynum the O's starting shortstop. Tough call on what to do here. Luis Hernandez did nothing to keep the job, however, Bynum is a good bet to hit under .250 in regular duty and is not a great fielder. Bottom line, grab Bynum in AL-only leagues or if you are just bone desperate for speed. If you own or are thinking of acquiring a Baltimore hurler, you might want to consider the effect of the downgrade in infield defense taking the field at Camden Yards.

Evan Longoria: Evan Longoria hit a walk off dinger to beat the Angels yesterday. Despite the dramatic blast, Longoria is struggling mightily with a batting average under .230. The uber-hype notwithstanding, Longoria's subpar average is hardly a surprise. Longoria has never managed to hit even .270 at the highest level at which he played in any year. If you own Longoria in a keeper league, you have to keep him. However, if you own him in a one year league, market him now. Take advantage of the walk-off and the hype and get a quality player for one who is a couple of years away from producing top flight roto stats.

Ben Broussard: The Rangers cut bait on Ben Broussard, designating him for assignment. This seems to be a bit quick to me. Broussard is just 31 and can hit. He is just two years removed from a .289/21 HR season. Look for Frank Catalanotto and Chris Shelton to platoon at first base. Both could have value once the ball starts flying out in the heat of the Texas summer. If you own Broussard and can reserve him, do it. He could very well land in a platoon situation and get quality AB's.

Mariano Rivera: In something that hardly seems like news, Mariano Rivera pitched a scoreless ninth Thursday to notch his 9th save of the year. Those who thought he was done or had fallen out of the top echelon of relievers were just plain wrong. Thus far, Mo has given up only 5 baserunners in 14 scoreless innings. Very rarely does one get to go to the ballpark or turn on the TV and know one is watching the best there's ever been. However, that is exactly what you get when you have the privilege of watching Mo take the hill. If there is a Mo owner in your league who is ready to move Rivera, pounce. Not only is Mo sharp as ever, the Yankees will come alive when ARod returns, Igawa leaves and the weather finally stays warm. Mo should finish with 35+ saves and great stats.

Wilson Betemit: Wilson Betemit is swinging a hot bat since coming off the shelf earlier this week. Perhaps he really was having trouble with his eyes early on. Wilson homered Thursday and followed that up with two hits on Friday. Betemit is a quality major league hitter just waiting for a chance to play (he has spent his career backing up Chipper, Furcal and now Jeter and ARod). Yes, ARod will reclaim his 3B slot immediately upon returning from the DL. However, Betemit is a far better choice than Jason Giambi or Shelly Duncan to play 1B. Giambi will hit the occasional homer, but is a weak fielder who will struggle to summit the Mendoza line all year. Duncan, while he is a feel good story, is nothing more than a pinch hitter from baseball family. Joe Girardi is very smart and will see that Betemit deserves to play often. Once he does, Betemit will produce double digit roto value for a much smaller price tag. Add in the fact that Betemit will likely qualify at SS and maybe even 2B by the end of the year, and you have a BUY situation.

Robinson Cano: Robinson Cano is starting to hit. Robbie, who has been mired in one of the ugliest slumps imaginable, is 7-22 with 4 runs and 4 RBI in his last 5 games. The opportunity to buy low is quickly fading. Do it now. By years' end, Cano will have Cano numbers – 290+ average with 20 dingers and 80-90 runs and RBI. If you buy now, you get most of that on your stat sheet. Bottom line, Cano is only 25 and has already posted three top quality seasons in the big leagues. He is a special talent. BUY.

Barry Zito: Barry Zito returned to the rotation Wednesday and posted a decent start, giving up two earned runs in five innings while striking out five. What to do? Well, if you own Zito, you have to hold. Never sell at the bottom of the market. If someone in your NL-only league cut Zito (as happened in LABR), he makes a very interesting free agent acquisition. Full disclosure here – Rick Wolf and I were the ones who gambled and grabbed Zito in LABR. Here are our reasons. First, in a deep league, there is precious little pitching that comes available and we needed another starter. Second, while Zito has hardly been worth 126 Million, he did post a 1.35 WHIP last year while striking out 131. If he makes a few more adjustments, he could post the same WHIP from here on out this year while adding 100+ strikeouts. If so, you have added a decent starter when those are just so hard to find. Also, there is the possibility that a contending team will need pitching come summertime and be willing to take some of that absurd contract off the Giants hands.

And finally, more wisdom from that Indian fan who still hopes they make a Major League IV and there is room for him to be one of the thousand of extras crooning Wild Thing. Schultz Says: "It was easy to write off Gavin Floyd's first no-hit bid against Detroit as it came on a frigidly cold day but after taking another no-hitter into the ninth against the Twins, it may be time to start taking him seriously. Many moons ago, Floyd was the pride of the Phillies farm system and just as quickly became one of their biggest disappointments. Nothing but his reputation suggests that his current 2.50 ERA and .96 WHIP are sustainable numbers. However, right now, he's pitching better than most and if you wanted to believe that he's a late bloomer, he wouldn't be the first highly touted pitcher to bloom later than everyone expected.

The real star of Moneyball, Kevin Youkilis, is off to a momentous start and with 7 HR, 27 RBI and a .313 average, seems poised for a career year. His owners have to be salivating as given the depth at the 1B position, Yuke probably came pretty cheap. Before you dislocate a shoulder congratulating yourself, keep this in mind: he traditionally starts off hot and usually tapers off near the end of the year - at least from a roto-perspective. While a homer a day is probably too much to expect for the rest of the season (duh), I think he may be headed for a 25 HR, 100+ RBI season and keep the average comfortably above .300. He will at least pick up the considerable slack being caused by David Ortiz' lousy start.

Excited about Edinson Volquez' hot start and Johnny Cueto's impressive ratios? Just look at how many pitches Dusty Baker is letting them throw this early in the season. Somewhere Mark Prior and Kerry Wood must be cringing with deja vu. Homer Bailey may be lucky to still be in the minors.

Can't help myself here: I for one enjoyed Kei Igawa's return last night. Mostly because I imagined the slow burn his performance was causing in Colton. Almost as much fun as watching my prediction of Joba giving up a 8th inning, 3-run home run to the Indians come true . . . just 7 months later than I thought."

Response: First, what slow burn? Igawa's conflagration was so quick and so complete that any arsonist would have been proud of his work. As to Joba, the kid is something truly special and everyone knows it – even Schultz.

Enjoy the weekend and be good to your Mothers on Sunday.

[Hache Man]

A Mother of a Week
Interleague play starts this week, so remember that some of your shakier National League pitchers are going to be facing a DH, and some of your more borderline American Leaguers are going to have the pleasure of facing a pitcher. That should be a nice boost, unless you're Armando Galarraga. Galarraga is stuck facing Micah Owings, who would probably improve the DH spot for half of the teams in the American League.

Here's what else is happening in the week ahead:

Two-Start Pitchers

American League

Must Starts
Cliff Lee – TOR (Shaun Marcum), @CIN (Johnny Cueto)
Erik Bedard - @TEX (Vicente Padilla), SD (Shawn Estes)
Shaun Marcum - @CLE (Cliff Lee), @PHI (Adam Eaton)
Chien-Ming Wang - @TB (Matt Garza), NYM (Oliver Perez) newyorkmets.com

Other Options
Clay Buchholz - @MIN (Felix Hernandez), MIL (Carlos Villanueva)
Mark Buehrle – @LAA (Nick Adenhart), @SF (Barry Zito)
John Danks - @LAA (Jered Weaver), @SF (Matt Cain)
Paul Byrd – OAK (Justin Duchscherer), @CIN (Aaron Harang)
Armando Galarraga - @KC (Zack Greinke), @ARI (Micah Owings)
Jered Weaver – CHW (John Danks), LAD (Brad Penny)
Livan Hernandez – BOS (Clay Buchholz), @COL (Undecided)
Kevin Slowey – TOR (Jesse Litsch), @COL (Jeff Francis)
Mike Mussina - @TB (Edwin Jackson), NYM (Nelson Figueroa) newyorkmets.com
Justin Duchscherer - @CLE (Paul Byrd), @ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes) atlantabraves.com
Matt Garza – NYY (Chien-Ming Wang), @STL (Adam Wainwright)
Edwin Jackson – NYY (Mike Mussina), @STL (Kyle Lohse)
Vicente Padilla – SEA (Erik Bedard), HOU (Brandon Backe)
Shaun Marcum - @CLE (Cliff Lee), @PHI (Adam Eaton)
Jesse Litsch - @MIN (Kevin Slowey), @PHI (Kyle Kendrick)

National League

Must Starts
Micah Owings – COL (Jeff Francis), DET (Armando Galarraga)
Tim Hudson - @PIT (Phil Dumatrait), OAK (Rich Harden)
Aaron Harang – FLA (Burke Badenhop), CLE (Paul Byrd)
Roy Oswalt - @SF (Barry Zito), @TEX (Sidney Ponson)
Brad Penny - @MIL (Carlos Villanueva), @LAA (Jered Weaver)
Randy Wolf - @CHC (Jon Lieber), @SEA (Miguel Batista)
Adam Wainwright - @MIL (Dave Bush), TB (Matt Garza)

Other Options
Jo-Jo Reyes* - @PHI (Kyle Kendrick), OAK (Justin Duchscherer)
Jon Lieber – SD (Randy Wolf), PIT (Phil Dumatrait)
Jason Marquis – SD (Shawn Estes), PIT (Paul Maholm)
Jeff Francis - @ARI (Micah Owings), MIN (Kevin Slowey)
Burke Badenhop - @CIN (Aaron Harang), KC (Brian Bannister)
Mark Hendrickson - @CIN (Edinson Volquez), KC (Zack Greinke)
Brandon Backe - @SF (Matt Cain), @TEX (Vicente Padilla)
Dave Bush – STL (Adam Wainwright), @BOS (Tim Wakefield)
Carlos Villanueva – LAD (Brad Penny), @BOS (Clay Buchholz)
Nelson Figueroa – WAS (Odalis Perez), @NYY (Mike Mussina)
Kyle Kendrick – ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes), TOR (Jesse Litsch)
Phil Dumatrait – ATL (Tim Hudson), @CHC (Jon Lieber)
Paul Maholm - @STL (Kyle Lohse), @CHC (Jason Marquis)
Shawn Estes - @CHC (Jason Marquis), @SEA (Erik Bedard)
Barry Zito – HOU (Roy Oswalt), CHW (Mark Buehrle)
Matt Cain – HOU (Brandon Backe), CHW (John Danks)
Kyle Lohse – PIT (Paul Maholm), TB (Edwin Jackson)
Odalis Perez - @NYM (Nelson Figueroa), @BAL (Scott Olsen)
John Lannan - @NYM (John Maine), @BAL (Brian Burres)

*Jo-Jo Reyes might need a stint on the DL

Possible Streamers

American League
Tuesday, 5/13 – Armando Galarraga @KC (Zack Greinke) – This might not be the best spot starter to use if you're looking for a win, but he should bounce back from a tough start in Boston against the Royals.

Friday, 5/16 – Gavin Floyd - @SF (Jonathan Sanchez) - Floyd's impressive outings have him owned in just about half of all leagues, and an outing against one of the worst offenses in baseball should only add to his popularity.

Saturday, 5/17 – John Danks @SF (Matt Cain) – Another promising young starter for the Sox faces the challenged Giants offense.

Saturday, 5/17 – Garrett Olson vs. WAS (Odalis Perez) – In two games this season, Olson has allowed 3 runs in 13 innings. He's a better streaming option than full-time member of fantasy squads, and a start against Washington is a good time to use him.

Sunday, 5/18 – Brian Burres vs. WAS (John Lannan) – Not to pick on the Nationals, but they've scored the fifth fewest runs in baseball this season. Burres has been effective, and can be used.

National League

Tuesday, 5/13 – Jason Marquis vs. SD (Shawn Estes) – This should be a solid outing for Marquis, who has a ton on the line and is facing the worst offense in the major leagues to this point. Marquis was 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against the Padres last year.

Friday, 5/16 – Scott Olsen vs. KC (Brett Tomko) – Olsen is owned in almost two-thirds of all leagues, but what do you want from me? It's a slow week for NL streamers. A match-up against the Royals makes a great opportunity to start Olsen.

Total Games

American League
7: CHW, CLE, LAA, MIN, NYY, TB, TOR
6: BOS, DET, KC, OAK, SEA, TEX
5: BAL

National League
7: ATL, CHC, CIN, FLA, HOU, MIL, NYM, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS
6: ARI, COL, LAD, PHI

Righty vs. Lefty match-ups

American League
Baltimore - 2 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Boston - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Minnesota - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Seattle - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Texas - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Orioles face three lefties, and Ramon Hernandez (.353 vs. LHP) and Adam Jones (.318 vs. LHP) should both get a slight boost.

The Royals face three lefties, which should be good for Billy Butler (.333 vs. LHP) and David DeJesus (.357 vs. LHP). Joey Gathright (.176 vs. LHP) could see his playing time limited.

The Athletics face three lefties, and Emil Brown (.370 vs. LHP), Bobby Crosby (.282 vs. LHP) and Mike Sweeney (.316 vs. LHP) could all benefit, while Mark Ellis (.149 vs. LHP) and Frank Thomas (.156 vs. LHP) could struggle.

The Mariners also face three lefties, meaning Jose Lopez (.400 vs. LHP) should fare well, as should Richie Sexson (.364 vs. LHP), and Jose Vidro (.320 vs. LHP).

National League:
Arizona - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 2 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Florida - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Houston - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers – 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
San Diego - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Washington - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Cubs have five games against lefties this week, which could mean a couple extra games for Henry Blanco (.571 vs. LHP), and fewer for Felix Pie (.100 vs. LHP). Ryan Theriot (.333 vs. LHP) should also have a solid week.

The Reds face three lefties, which is good news for Edwin Encarnacion (.267 vs. LHP), Brandon Phillips (.296 vs. LHP) and Jeff Keppinger (.338 vs. LHP). It's could hurt Ryan Freel (.250 vs. LHP) and Scott Hatteberg (.235 vs. LHP).

Washington also has three games against lefties next week, which is good news for Ryan Zimmerman (.330 career vs. LHP) and Austin Kearns (.293 career vs. LHP). Christian Guzman (.210 vs. LHP) could struggle.

The Injury Bug

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Alex Rodriguez – 3B – Could return on Thursday
Chone Figgins – 3B – Day-to-Day
Rich Harden – SP – Should be back by this week
Vernon Wells – OF – Day-to-day
Troy Glaus – 3B – Day-to-Day
Orlando Hudson – 2B – Day-to-Day
Chad Tracy – 3B – Could return at end of week
Rafael Furcal – SS- Day-to-Day with back tightness
Ray Durham – 2B – Could go on DL with hamstring injury
Omar Vizquel – SS – Could return this weekend

Waiver Wired

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired.

AL

1. Garrett Olson
2. Santiago Casilla
3. David DeJesus
4. Darrell Rasner
5. Jack Cust

NL

1. Chris Iannetta
2. Jo-Jo Reyes
3. Ryan Ludwick
4. Homer Bailey
5. Manny Parra

[Hache Man]

Notes From the Weekend

There's a ton of stuff to get to from this weekend's action, so let's get right to the notes from around baseball ...

* Manager Ned Yost announced Sunday morning that the Brewers had taken closing duties away from Eric Gagne, but declined to name a replacement. Faced with a save opportunity just a few hours later, Yost surprisingly turned to Salomon Torres rather than Guillermo Mota to begin the ninth inning. However, when Torres allowed a double and a walk while recording two outs, Yost brought in southpaw Brian Shouse to get the final out versus lefty Skip Schumaker.

Schumaker beat the odds by getting a hit off Shouse, who then remained in to face righty Yadier Molina. Molina delivered an RBI single that brought the winning run to the plate in the form of lefty Adam Kennedy, but Shouse induced a game-ending ground ball to pick up his first save since June 15 of last year. Mota seemed somewhat likely to take over for Gagne, but for one game at least he wasn't even in the picture as Yost mixed and matched Torres and Shouse.

Whether or not Mota can overtake Torres on the depth chart, if Yost continues to bring in Shouse to face lefty-heavy portions of lineups saves will be frustratingly hard to predict. For now at least you'll want to have Torres on your roster first, followed by Mota and Shouse, but the closing situation in Milwaukee is definitely worth keeping a close eye on. Given the $10 million they've invested in him and lack of other options, don't be shocked if Gagne gets back in the mix too.

* Hiroki Kuroda held the Astros to one over 6.2 innings Sunday afternoon and continues to make me look somewhat smart for tabbing him as one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season. Signed to a three-year, $35.3 million deal by the Dodgers this offseason after a lengthy and very successful career in Japan, the 33-year-old right-hander now has five Quality Starts in eight tries and sports a solid 3.59 ERA through 47.2 innings.

Unfortunately, Kuroda picked up his first victory on Opening Day and hasn't won since, leaving him with a 1-2 record despite solid numbers across the board. Jonathan Broxton is to blame for Kuroda's latest no-decision after he imploded in the eighth inning, coughing up six runs on six singles while recording just one out. He came into the game with a sparkling 1.00 WHIP and 21-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 15 innings, but watched his ERA balloon from 1.80 to 5.28.

Six runs are the most that Broxton has allowed in 180 career appearances with the Dodgers. His second-worst outing came on June 7 of last season, when he allowed five runs (four earned) and also recorded just one out. Broxton followed that horrible game by going six weeks and 21 straight appearances without giving up an earned run, lowering his ERA from 4.15 to 2.44 in the process. In other words, he should be just fine and you'd be smart to target him in most leagues.

* Ichiro Suzuki still has a sub-.300 batting average despite notching three hits Sunday, but he's made up for hitting "only" .292 by swiping an AL-leading 16 bases. With 272 career steals at an 80-percent clip heading into this season Ichiro has always been a tremendously effective base stealer, but he's cut down on his attempts since going 56-for-70 as a rookie. From 2002-2007 he averaged 45 steal attempts per season and never attempted more than 47 in a single year.

However, after stealing a base Sunday for the third straight game he's now 16-for-18 through 39 games, which puts him on pace for around 65 steals on 75 attempts. Toss in 26 runs that put him on pace to score 100-plus times for the eighth straight year and he's maintained excellent fantasy value despite what are for him at least some struggles at the plate. Once he gets back to hitting .330 or so—and with Ichiro it's really only a matter of time—he'll be on track for a huge season.

* Rich Harden came off the disabled list Sunday and struggled against the Rangers, allowing five runs on eight hits over 3.1 innings while handing out four walks. While certainly not a positive thing, a rough outing following more than a month on the shelf isn't hugely concerning and so far at least Harden has yet to cease performing like an elite pitcher when healthy enough to play. In other words, he's not in Mark Prior territory yet, although that only helps if he stays off the DL.

AL Quick Hits: Gavin Floyd followed up his near no-hitter by getting chased from Sunday's game in the fourth inning after allowing five runs on nine hits … Francisco Liriano had a positive outing Saturday at Triple-A, allowing two runs over six innings … Scratched from the lineup Sunday with a sore hamstring, Manny Ramirez had the game-ending ground out off the bench … Emil Brown had a homer and four RBIs Sunday, amazingly giving him 33 RBIs on the year despite a modest .721 OPS … Brian Bannister came into Sunday's game 0-4 with an 8.02 ERA over his last four starts, but tossed eight shutout innings against the Orioles … With Chone Figgins (hamstring) heading to the disabled list Saturday, Brandon Wood has a chance to claim regular starts at third base … Craig Monroe homered twice Sunday and figures to begin taking more playing time away from Jason Kubel … According to manager Joe Girardi, the Yankees plan to stick with Kei Igawa as their starter Wednesday despite his ugly outing Friday … Curt Schilling (biceps) threw from flat ground Saturday, but there's still no timetable for his return … Unfortunately for the Twins and their fans, it looks like Pat Neshek is done for the season.
atlantabraves.com
NL Quick Hits: Greg Maddux's victory Saturday made him just the ninth pitcher in MLB history to win 350 career games and puts him four wins from Roger Clemens … Meanwhile, pitching for the first time this month Trevor Hoffman closed out Maddux's win for his 530th career save … Hunter Pence hit just .161 through 15 games, but after going 3-for-4 with two RBIs Sunday he's 27-for-76 (.355) with four homers and 19 RBIs over the past 21 games … Out since April 8, Dmitri Young (back) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Tuesday … Dan Uggla went deep twice Sunday and already has seven homers this month … Jose Reyes went 3-for-5 with two steals Sunday and now has 10 multi-hit games despite a .259 batting average … Former No. 2 overall pick Greg Reynolds made his big-league debut Sunday, taking the loss while allowing four runs over 5.2 innings versus the Padres … Manager John Russell said Sunday that Freddy Sanchez will remain in the leadoff spot indefinitely … Luis Castillo left Sunday's game with a strained quadriceps and is considered day-to-day, but that's nothing new for him. newyorkmets.com

[Hache Man]

Another Gem For Lee

Toronto failed to score for the first 18 innings of Monday's doubleheader against Cleveland, as Fausto Carmona tossed a complete-game shutout in Game 1 and Cliff Lee extended his deal with the devil by turning in nine scoreless innings in Game 2. Lee couldn't match Carmona's complete-game effort thanks to the fact that Blue Jays starter Shaun Marcum also kept the Indians off the board through eight innings, so he had to settle for slicing his ERA to 0.67 in a no-decision.

Lee has said that the combination of relying more on his fastball and commanding it far more effectively is behind his amazing start, but within that are clear signs of his changing as a pitcher. He now has a 44-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 53.2 innings after coming into this season with just 2.1 strikeouts for every walk and has turned himself into a ground-ball pitcher after being one of the most fly ball-heavy starters in baseball previously.

Lee got 13 ground-ball outs Monday and has induced a grounder on half of his balls in play this season, whereas his ground-ball percentages during the previous four seasons were 33.8, 35.5, 32.7, and 35.3. He's obviously not going to maintain a sub-1.00 ERA, but writing Lee off as a fluke is a mistake. He's legitimately changed his approach while significantly altering his results, and even when breaking his performance down beyond ERA has been baseball's best pitcher.

While Lee incredibly allows zero earned runs for the fifth time in seven starts, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* John Smoltz threw Sunday for the first time since being shut down with shoulder problems two weeks ago and said afterward that he hopes to come off the disabled list by the end of the month. "I know how the ball felt coming out of my hand and I felt like I could pitch tomorrow," Smoltz said. Once Smoltz does return it'll be as a reliever and it seems all but certain that he'll take over as the Braves' closer after averaging 48 saves per season from 2002-2004. atlantabraves.com

Smoltz has gone 47-26 with a 3.18 ERA in 105 starts since rejoining the rotation in 2005, but has said that he believes relieving again will be easier on his arm. Meanwhile, Rafael Soriano threw a 10-minute bullpen session Sunday and still has an outside shot at beating Smoltz back from the DL. He'll have to avoid a setback and complete a brief minor-league rehab assignment first, and even then won't have long with ninth-inning duties before becoming Smoltz's top setup man.

* Brandon Wood was considered one of the elite prospects in baseball after hitting .321 with 43 homers and 101 total extra-base hits as a 20-year-old in 2005, but his stock has dropped quite a bit since then and he's looked completely lost in the majors thus far. Called up from Triple-A late last month, Wood went 4-for-26 (.153) with 11 strikeouts and one walk before being optioned back to the minors Monday.

He's still just 23 years old, so there's plenty of time for Wood to avoid being a bust, but he's now 9-for-59 (.153) with a hideous 23-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 62 plate appearances in the big leagues. His raw numbers in the minors are far more encouraging, but his .274/.337/.517 line in 136 games at Triple-A is somewhat deceiving because of how favorably the Pacific Coast League is for hitters. Wood's .854 OPS there is "only" eight percent above the league average.

He also sports a 155-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Triple-A, which certainly makes his complete inability to control the strike zone in the majors thus far less than shocking. Wood has shown big power wherever he's gone, averaging 28 homers per 600 plate appearances in the minors, but has hit just .268 while striking out in 28 percent of his 1,187 trips to the plate since advancing past Single-A. At this point, Wood's upside looks more like Joe Crede than Troy Glaus.

* Alex Rodriguez had hoped to come off the disabled list when eligible Thursday, but will now be sidelined through at least the weekend after an MRI taken Monday showed that his strained right quadriceps hasn't healed enough for him to begin a minor-league rehab assignment. "We can't afford to have him come back for two days and then lose him for six weeks," manager Joe Girardi said. "We want to have him fully healed." He'll miss the interleague series versus the Mets.

* Rafael Furcal hit .381 with 17 extra-base hits, seven steals, and 26 runs in April and began May with two homers and eight runs through five games, but the best start of his career has been put on hold by a strained back. He's headed to the disabled list, making Chin-Lung Hu the Dodgers' shortstop for at least a couple weeks. Hu hasn't hit in the majors yet, but with a .325/.364/.507 line between Double-A and Triple-A last year he's well worth grabbing in NL-only leagues.

AL Quick Hits: While Lee's peripheral numbers nearly match his miniscule ERA, Carmona has a 2.40 ERA despite a horrendous 18-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio … Rather than turn to Kei Igawa again, the Yankees are expected to recall Ian Kennedy from Triple-A to start Thursday versus the Rays and let Darrell Rasner face the Mets on Friday … Eric Chavez (back) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Thursday at Triple-A, but said Sunday that coming off the shelf when eligible on May 27 is no longer an option … Asdrubal Cabrera turned the 14th unassisted triple play in MLB history Monday, turning a Lyle Overbay line drive into three outs … Manager Ron Gardenhire said Monday that Scott Baker (groin) won't be cleared to throw off a mound for at least another 10-12 days, giving Glen Perkins several more starts … If not for a rainout, Derek Jeter would have batted cleanup Sunday for just the second time in his career and first time since 1999 … Despite working with the league's slowest fastball among non-knuckleballers, Livan Hernandez improved to 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA following Monday's victory over the Red Sox.

NL Quick Hits: Ryan Braun hit a pair of homers Monday for the second straight day after totaling five homers through 35 games … Mark Teixeira left Game 1 of Monday's doubleheader with back spasms and sat out Game 2 … Alfonso Soriano went 2-for-5 with two RBIs and two runs Monday, making him 13-for-42 (.310) in 11 games since coming off the shelf … Starting in center field Monday for the fourth straight game since replacing Jim Edmonds, Jody Gerut went 3-for-4 while homering for the first time since May 24, 2005 … Meanwhile, Edmonds is said to be drawing interest from the Cubs, who apparently will do just about anything to avoid simply playing Felix Pie … After undergoing an MRI exam Monday, Luis Castillo has been diagnosed with a strained quadriceps and could be headed to the disabled list … Mike Jacobs (quadriceps) sat out his fifth straight game Monday, with Wes Helms once again replacing him at first base … In what has become an annual tradition, reports out of Seattle speculate that the Mariners are interested in reacquiring Ken Griffey Jr. newyorkmets.com

[Hache Man]

Breakouts On Hold

Manager Ned Yost stripped Eric Gagne of ninth-inning duties Sunday and said Monday that he wouldn't be getting the closer job back for a while, yet there he was Tuesday night being asked to close out a two-run lead. Gagne gave up a leadoff single and then walked a batter after recording two outs, at which point Yost had southpaw Brian Shouse warming up in the bullpen. He stuck with Gagne, who got left-hander Juan Pierre to pop out on the first pitch he saw for save No. 10.

Earlier this week my guess was that Gagne would resume closing eventually, but Yost rethinking his decision 48 hours later is still a surprise. Gagne has struggled dating back to the middle of last year and is merely a shell of the guy who electrified Dodger Stadium with each appearance from 2002-2004, but still has plenty of fantasy value if only because Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, and Shouse aren't exactly inspiring as ninth-inning options.

While everyone remembers to be very skeptical of any Yost proclamations in the future, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Jeff Keppinger's outstanding minor-league track record convinced me to select him as one of my NL-only hitting sleepers heading into this season despite the fact that he didn't have a clear spot in the Reds' lineup. That all changed when Alex Gonzalez went down with a knee injury and Keppinger has taken full advantage, hitting .324 while leading the team with 21 RBIs. Sadly, his breakout season is now on hold after Keppinger suffered a knee injury of his own Tuesday.

After singling in the first inning, Keppinger fouled a ball off his leg in the second inning. He stayed in the game and actually coaxed a walk out of the plate appearance, but eventually exited two innings later. He's been diagnosed with a fractured kneecap and has an MRI scheduled for Wednesday, with a trip to the disabled list almost certainly in his future. With both Keppinger and Gonzalez out the Reds figure to turn to Jerry Hairston Jr. as their unlikely regular shortstop.

Not only did Hairston begin this year at Triple-A after hitting just .206 and .189 in the majors over the past two seasons, he was primarily an outfielder during that time. In fact, prior to this year he played a grand total of 17 innings at shortstop during a decade in the majors. Another option is calling up 25-year-old prospect Paul Janish, who has actually played shortstop regularly and is hitting .294/.341/.445 in 33 games at Triple-A. For now at least, Hairston is the NL-only pickup.

* Perhaps even more so than Keppinger, Ryan Doumit has been one of the breakout fantasy stars of the young season. After beating out Ronny Paulino for the bulk of the playing time behind the plate in Pittsburgh, Doumit has hit .350 with five homers, 15 RBIs, and 21 runs. Sadly, like Keppinger he's now headed to the sidelines. Doumit fractured the tip of his left thumb Tuesday and manager John Russell suggested afterward that he's likely to miss 2-3 weeks.

Paulino has fallen out of favor with the Pirates after logging nearly 1,000 plate appearances and over 2,100 innings behind the plate over the past two years, starting just 14 of the team's first 39 games. He has plenty of faults, including shaky defense and little power, but is a .282/.336/.385 career hitter. That may not look like much, but the average MLB catcher has hit .268/.337/.397 this season, giving Paulino solid value in NL-only leagues as long as Doumit is out.

* With his comeback from a strained left calf apparently hitting a snag, Nomar Garciaparra said Tuesday that he's not yet ready to begin a minor-league rehab assignment. "I did push it to the ceiling, but I still need some time," Garciaparra said. "There's no need to go backward." While Mr. Hamm tries to make it back, Andy LaRoche is doing his best to beat him to the third-base job. Rehabbing from a thumb injury of his own, LaRoche is feasting on minor-league pitching.

LaRoche went 2-for-2 with a homer and four walks Sunday and then drew three more free passes Monday, giving him a .316/.480/.544 hitting line in 19 games. He batted .309/.399/.589 with 18 homers in 73 games at Triple-A last season and was in line for a shot at the starting gig prior to the injury, so the 24-year-old LaRoche deserves a chance to claim the job before Garciaparra returns. Of course, given the Dodgers' preference for veterans, that's probably wishful thinking.

AL Quick Hits: After working out at the Yankees' minor-league complex Tuesday, Alex Rodriguez (quadriceps) said that he's aiming to come back early next week … Hank Blalock (hamstring) fielded ground balls and ran the bases Tuesday, signaling that he could return as soon as this weekend … J.D. Drew left Tuesday's game with an ugly looking wrist injury, but is considered day-to-day after X-rays came back negative … Coco Crisp exited Tuesday's game with an upset stomach, and with Drew already out the Red Sox moved Kevin Youkilis to right field … Jose Vidro was scratched from Tuesday's lineup with back spasms, giving Miguel Cairo another undeserved start at first base … Maicer Izturis (back) returned from the disabled list Tuesday and will start at second base until Howie Kendrick (hamstring) comes off the shelf … Rocco Baldelli (leg) took batting practice Tuesday and said afterward that he's still hoping to play this season, but there's no timetable for his return … Jason Kubel delivered a pinch-hit homer off the bench Tuesday and is trying to avoid a "Brooks Was Here" moment in Minnesota.
newyorkmets.com
NL Quick Hits: After giving some thought to calling up Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have opted against the 20-year-old southpaw making his big-league debut Saturday … Brad Lidge allowed an earned run Tuesday for the first time this year, but still converted his 10th save … Barry Zito's streak of consecutive starts with a loss ended at seven Monday, as he picked up a no-decision by allowing three runs over six innings versus the Astros … As expected, the Dodgers placed Rafael Furcal (back) on the disabled list Tuesday and handed Chin-Lung Hu the starting job … Reports out of Chicago suggest that the Cubs will go after Jim Edmonds as soon as he clears waivers Wednesday, meaning that Felix Pie's days in the majors are numbered … Jay Bruce went 5-for-7 with a homer and two doubles in a doubleheader Monday at Triple-A and is hitting .348/.375/.609 on the year … Ray Durham (hamstring) was in the starting lineup Tuesday for the first time in 11 days … Mark Prior underwent an MRI on his surgically repaired right shoulder Monday and is scheduled to be examined by Dr. James Andrews

[Hache Man]

Rockie Reynolds
The MLB draft is less than a month away, and you can practically taste the excitement! Okay, not really. Baseball's draft is still very much for the hardcore fan, and a large percentage of those that do follow it do so as much for fantasy reasons as team fandom. That said, the work milb.com and ESPN are doing is a big plus for us diehards, and its surely going to continue gaining steam. It'll never be the NFL or NBA drafts, but someday we'll get coverage from more than a few, albeit very good, sources. Maybe we'll eventually get it moved to a weekend too.

In the two weeks following the draft I'll be posting my usual Top 30 picks for fantasy leaguers. It will be the third season I've done so, and the previous editions can be found in the archives. In a draft heavy with college hitters, fantasy leaguers should be paying extra attention in that the 2008 draft should, as a whole, lead to teams getting help more quickly. For example, there are at least six players from the college ranks who project to be selected in the first round and end up at first base in the majors. Throw in premium position players like Gordan Beckham, Buster Posey, and Jemile Weeks, and it's a good draft to help rebuild quickly on the hitting side.

The pitching side of the equation isn't as strong, but the two clear standouts are Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow. There are a handful of interesting second tier pitchers, but all have question marks and that makes this a clear hitting draft. The high school class is also less intriguing than last year as there is a large drop-off in talent after the top three of Tim Beckham, Eric Hosmer, and Kyle Skipworth. Last season I ranked nine high school players in the Top 15 for fantasy leagues, but this year I doubt there will be more than four.

Looking at this week's callups, with a small and unexciting group of prospects getting promoted I'm adding a new section. At the bottom of the page you'll see a look at players who could be getting promoted in the next month or two. I'll list the player, provide a brief blurb, and then a recommendation. I'll update the list from time to time as the space required for callups permits.

Major League Callups

Matt Brown – 3B Angels – Brown was up in the majors for a few days earlier in the year, but it was in-between columns and I didn't get a chance to write him up. A 10th round pick by the Angels in 2001, Brown has had a slow but steady approach to the majors. He started his career by hanging around in Rookie ball for the significant majority of his first three professional seasons, then moved up a level per year from 2004 to 2007. Brown struggled to hit for both average and power at the same time in the low levels of the minors, in part because he struck out about once per game.

Moved up to Double-A Arkansas in 2006, Brown had his best season to date with a .289/.359/.491 line that included an unexciting but solid 108/47 K/BB in 515 at-bats. The 6'0", 180-pound right-hander was already 23, so he would have to capitalize on his success immediately to get taken seriously as a prospect. Brown did post a nearly identical campaign the next year in 2007, but that it came with a regression to his previous strikeout levels was disappointing. With poor plate discipline, modest power for a corner player, and no speed or defensive value to speak of, Brown projects as a bench player if things break right.

Back again while replacing the struggling Brandon Wood, Brown figures to get some action at third base until Chone Figgins or Howie Kendrick returns. He was off to a very fast start with Triple-A Salt Lake, batting .381 with 22 extra-base hits in just 126 at-bats. Brown getting hot and earning a few starts wouldn't be all that surprising, but the better bet is that his strike zone judgment impedes his ability to succeed, much like the player he replaced. That he's 1-for-9 with seven strikeouts to start his major league career adds more certainty to this projection.

Recommendation: Ignore in all formats.

Luis Maza – SS Dodgers – The 27-year-old Maza isn't a prospect by any standards, but he'll get a few looks when owners see that he was the player recalled when Rafael Furcal was sent to the disabled list. Chin-Lung Hu will certainly start at shortstop while Furcal is out, but Maza will be the backup behind Hu and the ever-brittle Jeff Kent. That means he may actually get a couple of starts per week while Furcal is out, which sounds like it will be for the minimum of two weeks.

Despite the opportunity, Maza doesn't figure to have any value in fantasy leagues. He was hitting .402 for Triple-A Las Vegas before being recalled and hit .330 there after being promoted from Double-A last season. However, Maza has no speed or secondary skills to offer, and it's hard to get by just on batting average. Further, Maza is a career .280 hitter, and an inconsistent one at that, and would hardly be the first player to see a huge performance inflation once reaching Las Vegas and the PCL.

Recommendation: Ignore in all formats.

Greg Reynolds – RHP Rockies – Easily the biggest name and only true prospect called up this week, Reynolds was the second overall pick in the 2006 draft. The big, 6'7" right-hander had a strong junior season for Stanford, posting a 3.31 ERA and 108/32 K/BB ratio. However, those stats aren't worthy of a second overall selection, and Reynolds wasn't thought to have much projection left either. He was polished with good command and the advanced approach that is typical of Stanford pitchers, but it was still an overdraft. It's always going to be tough for a pitcher in Coors Field to make the Top 30 for fantasy leagues when I compile it each year, but Reynolds was hardly considered despite his lofty selection number. Throw in that the Rockies passed on obviously superior talents like Andrew Miller and Tim Lincecum, and it's already looking like a poor selection.

All of that said, Reynolds still looked like he could be a No. 3 starter or, worst-case, an innings eater who kept the team in games most times out. His debut with High-A Modesto went well enough, as Reynolds posted a 3.33 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 48 2/3 innings. The right-hander got off to an even better start with Double-A Tulsa the following season, posting a 1.42 ERA and 35/9 K/BB in 50 2/3 innings. Though he wasn't overpowering the league, Reynolds was getting good movement on his low-90s fastball and Double-A hitters failed to hit him when he was nailing his spots. His curve also looked like an average offering and his changeup wasn't far behind, so there was hope.

Unfortunately, a sore shoulder sidelined him shortly thereafter, and Reynolds underwent exploratory surgery on the shoulder in August. The surgery was considered minor and Reynolds felt better afterwards, so when he came to Spring Training in good shape it wasn't all that surprising. The Rockies continued to be aggressive with Reynolds, assigning him to Triple-A after his stint with the big club in March. Reynolds has been rather mediocre so far with a 4.86 ERA and 16/9 K/BB, but that he had only given up three homers while pitching half his games at Colorado Springs was a plus.

Reynolds was called up to take the rotation spot of Mark Redman, so he'll have every opportunity to run with his new gig. However, the early returns in Triple-A say that Reynolds isn't ready yet despite his polish, and that he struggled in his first career big league start didn't do anything to change that opinion. He'll have his uses in NL-only leagues during his peak, which could be as early as 2009, but Reynolds can be safely ignored for the short-term.

Recommendation: Ignore in all formats.

Callup Watch

American League
Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers -- Don't look now, but the 27-year-old Cruz is at it again in Triple-A. The former prospect is batting .336 and slugging .700 with more walks than strikeouts. He's done this before and still struggled in the majors, but maybe he'll get another opportunity. There's little blocking him in the major leagues, so watch and see if he's called up.

Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers -- Davis wasn't likely to make this list two months ago, but he just keeps on hitting. Strikeouts are supposed to limit your batting average potential, but nobody told Davis as he's hitting .319 despite 37 strikeouts in 35 games. Since he also has nine homers and a 917 OPS, the Rangers could be aggressive with him if he keeps hitting. The big club has very few major leaguers who can't be displaced right now, so they can find room for Davis whenever they please.

Jeff Larish/Mike Hessman, 1B/3B, Tigers -- Larish is still relatively young and a prospect, but both are callup candidates in the short-term. Larish is striking out way too often with 46 in 40 games, but he does have 11 homers and a 956 OPS. Hessman has the more impressive line with a whopping 17 homers to go with a .308 average and 1135 OPS. Hessman also strikes out and is 30 years old, but the production is hard to deny. With Gary Sheffield in the outfield, one of these two will be called up to battle Brandon Inge for playing time if Matt Joyce struggles. Either would be worth an AL-only claim at that time.

James Simmons, RHP, Athletics -- Simmons is only in Double-A and was drafted just last June, but he's still already very close to the majors. The Texas League hasn't proven an issue for Simmons, as his 2.02 ERA and 31/8 K/BB highlight, and he was considered the most polished pitcher in the 2007 draft, so talent-wise Simmons should be ready for the majors in a month or two. Opportunity will be an issue, but Rich Harden surely won't stay healthy and Gio Gonzalez, the only true prospect in Triple-A, is struggling, so Simmons could find himself in the Oakland rotation if a second starter goes down. He'd be worth claiming in AL-only leagues once that happened.

National League
Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds -- Bailey had a poor last outing that saw him serve up six runs in just 4 1/3 innings. However, unlike in recent past, Bailey's command remained intact and he walked just two batters during the start. It's a good sign that Bailey could keep his composure while not having his best stuff, and his 3.55 ERA and 40/14 K/BB ratio overall don't hurt either. Matt Belisle shouldn't be keeping Bailey in the minors much longer, so stash him away in NL-only leagues.Jay Bruce, OF, Reds -- That he's striking out almost once per game is a concern, but the Reds still have their best center fielder in Triple-A. Corey Patterson struggles to keep his OPS over 700, and while he plays superior defense, it's not enough to offset Bruce's hitting advantage. And now that Bruce has gotten hot and has his batting line up to .352/.378/.613 there's little reason to continue going with Patterson. Management will have to convince Dusty Baker that it's the right thing to do, but expect them to do so sooner or later. A Ken Griffey Jr. trade would make things even easier. Bruce should be stashed away in NL-only leagues.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers -- The minor's top pitching prospect, Kershaw is off to a fantastic start for Double-A Jacksonville with a 2.21 ERA and 40/11 K/BB in 36 2/3 innings. The Dodgers gave some thought to promoting the 20-year-old for a start this weekend, but he struggled in his last outing and the club is intent on monitoring his innings, so they thought better of it. However, the Dodgers won't sit on their hands if they aren't in better shape in a month, so Kershaw could still get the call rather quickly. He's worth stashing away.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates -- One of the biggest gainers in terms of prospect status in the early going, McCutchen has begun to turn his immense tools into production. Despite starting the year in Triple-A at the young age of 21, McCutchen has posted an impressive .290/.383/.483 line that includes a 25/20 K/BB and six homers. Considering that McCutchen hit all of 11 homers last season with a modest 94/48 K/BB, it's clear he's made big strides. I'd keep him down in the minors all year to ensure he continues with the improved approach, but the Pirates will probably promote him some time in the next month or two. A trade of Xavier Nady is all that stands in the way, so watch the rumor mill very closely and grab McCutchen as soon as there's hint of a Pirate deal.

Chris Volstad, RHP, Marlins -- A 2005 first-rounder, Volstad is off to a great start with a 2.58 ERA, 37/17 K/BB, and 3.03 GB/FB as a 21-year-old for Double-A Carolina. The right-hander could use more time in the minors, but the Marlins are typically aggressive with prospects and they could use the rotation help sooner rather than later. Once the club gets sick of Burke Badenhop or Ricky Nolasco, expect Volstad to get the call. He'll be of some use when he does get a call, but his upside isn't that big.

[Hache Man]

Some stats still anomalies

Another week gone and Chipper Jones is still batting around .400. Cliff Lee's ERA is still less than 1.00. Ryan Howard and Robinson Cano are still batting less than .200 WWW.ATLANTABRAVES.WS

These would not be notable observations except that at the one-quarter mark of the 2008 season, this is a point at which we'd expect most statistical anomalies to have washed out. Could the numbers being posted by Jones, Lee, Howard and Cano be for real?

The answer is yes, and no.

For years, we have used a rough rule of thumb that pointed to May 15 as the date to begin taking the stats seriously. However, the question of when sample size becomes meaningful can be answered with calculations of statistical reliability. As it turns out, the date is different for each statistical category.

A study done at the "Statistically Speaking" blog at mvn.com determined that a batter's contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) becomes meaningful at 150 plate appearances. This is fairly close to the May 15 date. It is also the only batting stat that becomes meaningful that early. Home run rates take twice as long. Batting averages never reach a level at which we can consider them statistically meaningful, at least not within 650 plate appearances.

However, contact rates can give us a good sense of batting average potential. Both Howard (61%) and Cano (89%) are within a reasonable variance from their history, which means they should be able to put .200 in their rearview mirror soon.

On the pitching side, strikeout rate takes only 150 batters faced, or about five or six starts to become a statistically reliable measure of performance. That means Chien-Ming Wang's rate of 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings probably needs to be taken seriously, even though his previous seasonal high was only 4.7. Lee's 7.4 rate, a strikeout higher than he posted during his 2005 breakout season, is probably for real at some level as well.

Conversely, Fausto Carmona's 3.3 strikeout rate has to be of concern after he posted a 5.7 in 2007. Warning flags must be up for Justin Verlander (5.5 this year, 8.2 in 2007) and Ian Snell (5.7, 7.7) too.

One other issue about this time of year is that there are now enough stats in the books for these players' full season totals to be colored by their early numbers.

For instance, if Jones finishes the season batting .300, everyone will view 2008 as another productive campaign for the Braves third baseman. What won't be apparent is that he will have batted .400 over the first six weeks but .270 over the final 4½ months.

Similarly, Cano and Howard could suddenly become .300 hitters for the remainder of the season, but their 2008 line will only present them with final batting averages in the low .270s. The question, of course, is whether either player can put up a .300 batting average for 20 weeks.

And Lee, with his 0.67 ERA? If he finishes with the 3.79 ERA he posted in 2005, that means he would have pitched with a 4.70 ERA from this point forward.

[Hache Man]

Back and Bigger Than Ever
If you've ever wondered what it would be like to watch me talk about this season's rookie class while sitting in front of a bookcase in my living room—and really, who hasn't dreamed of that—then this week's NBCSports.com "Fantasy Fix" show is your big chance. While you try to figure out the identities of the odd mix of bobble-head dolls perched behind me in the video, here are some notes from around baseball …

* C.C. Sabathia coughed up five, four, nine, and nine runs in his first four outings, making him 0-3 with a hideous 13.50 ERA and 14-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 18 innings. It was a brutal start for a reigning Cy Young winner and understandably had his fantasy owners very worried, but Sabathia has done an amazing job easing those concerns with a dominant five-start stretch that includes a complete-game shutout Wednesday night versus Oakland.

Sabathia overpowered the A's, racking up 11 strikeouts while handing out two walks and allowing five hits. His overall ERA remains ugly at 5.47, but Sabathia has somewhat quietly posted a 1.49 ERA, 43-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.02 WHIP over his last 36.1 innings. Tossing a shutout makes it tough to continue calling him a buy-low target, but the high ERA means that he's still likely undervalued by owners who haven't been tracking him start-by-start.

* After initially indicating that Clay Buchholz's broken fingernail wasn't a big deal, the Red Sox opted to place him on the disabled list Wednesday. Buchholz was knocked around by the Twins in his last start and the Red Sox may have decided that giving the 23-year-old some time off was smart even if he could have pitched through the injury. Bartolo Colon isn't ready to be called up from Triple-A yet, so Justin Masterson looks like the favorite to start in Buchholz's place Sunday.

As for Buchholz, a couple weeks off may ultimately be a positive thing by keeping his workload in check after he threw just 148 innings between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors last year. His performance this season has been very uneven, but a 5.53 ERA overstates his struggles quite a bit. Buchholz has had three ugly outings in eight starts and sports a 43-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 42.1 innings that's more befitting someone with a 4.00 ERA. Buy low if you can.

* A lot of money could have been made this offseason by betting Yankees fans that Mike Mussina would be the team's second-best starter through mid-May, but that's indeed the case. He held the Rays to one run over six innings Wednesday, winning his fifth straight start while improving to 6-3 with a 3.99 ERA overall. His velocity fell into the high-80s a few years ago, but what's amazing about Mussina's success this season is that he's now averaging just 85 MPH with his fastball.

A further decline in velocity has predictably led to fewer missed bats and Mussina is on pace for a career-low 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Mussina has always had good control, but has been a strike-throwing machine this season, making up for the increased contact by handing out just six walks through 49.1 innings. That works out to 1.1 walks per nine innings, which means that he's slashed his already strong career walk rate of 2.0 per nine innings in half

The days of Mussina being an elite starter are long gone and working with an 85-MPH fastball will lead to some ugly outings, but guys like Greg Maddux and Brad Radke have shown that smart, veteran pitchers with very hittable stuff can still get the job done by pounding the strike zone. His secondary numbers last year suggested that he was better than a 5.15 ERA and Mussina looks capable of maintaining an ERA around 4.25-4.50, which on the Yankees means plenty of wins.

* Sitting pretty in first place, the Rays announced Wednesday that they've agreed to terms with Scott Kazmir on a three-year contract extension that includes a team option for 2012. Kazmir was already under the team's control through 2010, so the new deal allows the Rays to buy out his first two seasons of free agency. In return Kazmir receives $28.5 million in guarantees, which is a smart, conservative move for a 24-year-old who's already had plenty of injury concerns.

Kazmir is the franchise leader in wins, strikeouts, ERA, starts, and innings, and if healthy has clearly shown that he's capable of being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, posting a 3.63 ERA while striking out 628 batters in 580.2 career innings. Thanks to a long string of high draft picks the Rays have a tremendous assortment of young talent, both in the majors and in the minors, and locking up Kazmir for the next four seasons is a big step in the right direction.

* C.J. Wilson struggled on Saturday and Monday, so the Rangers turned to Eddie Guardado with a three-run lead Tuesday. Guardado got the job done, converting his first save since August of 2006, but manager Ron Washington said afterward that Wilson remains the team's closer and watched him throw a scoreless inning in a tie game Wednesday. His ERA remains ugly at 5.09, but Wilson has held opponents to a .224 average while allowing zero hits in 11 of 19 outings.

AL Quick Hits: Ramon Hernandez was originally expected to return to the lineup Wednesday, but was scratched late with continued soreness in his wrist … Joe Borowski (triceps) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Monday at Single-A … Justin Verlander turned in just his second Quality Start of the season Wednesday, holding the Royals to two runs over six innings, but still fell to 1-7 … Hank Blalock (hamstring) is expected to begin a brief rehab stint Thursday at Double-A and could return from the disabled list this weekend … Jeff Clement made his third start at catcher Wednesday and delivered a pair of extra-base hits … Batting just .167 this month, Kurt Suzuki was dropped from the leadoff spot to eighth in the order Wednesday, losing quite a bit of fantasy value in the process … Because playing defense bothers his surgically repaired shoulder, the Tigers announced Wednesday that Gary Sheffield will resume starting primarily at designated hitter … Robinson Cano hit just .151/.211/.236 in April, but after collecting four hits Wednesday he's now 14-for-40 (.350) with two homers this month.

NL Quick Hits: After missing a week with flu-like symptoms, Takashi Saito pitched a perfect ninth inning Wednesday for his sixth save … Chase Utley homered Wednesday for the first time since May 3, tying Lance Berkman for the MLB lead with 14 long balls … Scott Olsen said Tuesday that his arm "feels fine" despite decreased velocity in his last start … Pedro Martinez (hamstring) threw a 55-pitch simulated game Wednesday and could be close to starting a minor-league rehab assignment … After undergoing an MRI exam Wednesday, Jeff Keppinger (knee) is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, giving Jerry Hairston Jr. and Paul Janish some NL-only value … Rather than call up 20-year-old phenom Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers will give Chan Ho Park the start Saturday versus the Angels … Manager Lou Piniella said Tuesday that Rich Hill will remain at Triple-A for several more starts … With Manny Acosta having worked on three straight days, Blaine Boyer picked up his first save Wednesday … Jason Hirsh (shoulder) threw a two-inning simulated game Tuesday and remains on track for a mid-June return.

[Hache Man]

Revved up like a Duch
In writing this column, there was a point where I had printed out the lyrics to the Mannfred Mann's Earth Band's version of "Blinded by the Light" and was attempting to write a parody song referencing other members of the Athletics ("With Rob Bowen on my shoulder/feeling kinda older", etc). Fortunately for everyone, my wife mercilessly mocked me, and so I'll leave the title as the only reference to the song.

Here are this week's waiver wire options:

American League

Justin Duchscherer – SP – OAK – You can't count on him to stay healthy, but Duchscherer is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.08 after five starts this season. He's struck out 24 batters in 28 2/3 innings, and there's no reason this guy should be owned in fewer than half of all fantasy leagues. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any start, and has taken nicely to a starting role. Double check to make sure he's not available.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

Kenji Johjima – C – SEA – Johjima was drafted in most mixed formats, but after a tough start to the season, he's only owned in a third of all fantasy leagues. He has eight hits in his last 16 at-bats and is showing legitimate signs of breaking out of his funk. Kenji has shown that he's a worthy starting catcher in most standard-sized leagues, and he makes a fine replacement for mixed leaguers looking to replace Ryan Doumit.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

Eddie Guardado – RP – TEX – C.J. Wilson has struggled lately, but in the seven appearances in which Wilson has allowed a hit, only two have been save situations. He could be suffering from the inability to get into the right mentality when a save isn't on the line. Manager Ron Washington says Wilson will remain the closer, but those dying for saves might want to take a chance on Eddie Guardado, who would seemingly take over if Wilson loses the job.
Recommendation: Worth a flier in mixed leagues.

Mike Mussina – SP – NYY – After shutting out the Rays for 6 1/3 innings on Wednesday night, Mussina has allowed just eight runs in his last 29 1/3 innings. He now has a 23/5 K/BB ratio on the season, and should eventually pick up plenty of wins while throwing for the Yankees. Don't get attached to Mussina, but he might be worth adding and then trying to trade after his next starts against Baltimore and Seattle.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

Matt Garza – SP – TB – Garza was a popular sleeper choice before the season started, but he gave up eight runs in eight innings before going on the disabled list with an irritated radial nerve. Since returning, he's allowed just six runs in 24 2/3 innings. Garza's K/BB ratio is still a highly suspect 14/14 (I realize that's a ratio of 1, but that's less informative, brainiac), but he's shown the ability to improve upon that. He'll probably hurt a team's WHIP, but he could win 15 games if the Rays continue to play even moderately well.
Recommendation: Flier in mixed leagues, should be owned in AL-only leagues

Brad Wilkerson – OF – TOR – With Vernon Wells going on the disabled list, Wilkerson figures to see plenty of time as half of a platoon in right field. He's hitting .224 on the season, so he'll hurt there, but Toronto is a great place for left-handed power hitters to play. He should hit a fair number of home runs, making him a decent add in AL-only leagues.
Recommendation: Worth owning in AL-only leagues.

Freddie Bynum – SS- BAL – Bynum was named the Orioles' starting shortstop last week, and since getting the job, he's gone 6-for-19 and scored five runs. He's yet to attempt a stolen base, but those will come with time. He's a career .259 hitter, but he's never gotten the chance to start regularly so that could improve. Having Alex Cintron breathing down his neck (pastrami breath) isn't great for his job security, but he could have value if he can hold onto the job.
Recommendation: Worth watching in AL-only leagues.

Cliff Floyd – OF/DH – TB – Floyd came off the disabled list last weekend, and while he'll be part of a platoon, he should get the majority of starts against right-handed pitchers. Floyd could end up hitting around 15 home runs and driving in 60 if he can stay healthy.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

National League

Bronson Arroyo – SP – CIN - Arroyo's 4.23 ERA last season wasn't pretty, but most of the damage can be traced to a six-game stretch starting in the end of May that saw Arroyo give up six runs in five of six starts. After a similarly brutal start to this season, Arroyo is now available in two-thirds of all leagues. In his last two starts he's given up just one run over 15 innings. He makes a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, and can be counted on for an ERA around 4.00 over the rest of the season.
Recommendation: Worth owning in mixed leagues.

Jay Bruce – OF – Reds – In 145 at-bats at Triple-A, Jay Bruce is hitting .366 with eight home runs, nine doubles and five triples. His 34/11 K/BB ratio leaves a bit to be desired, but Bruce is ready for an extended look in the major leagues. There's no shortage of trade rumors surrounding Ken Griffey Jr., and local papers think that Bruce could be up in early June. Teams with deep benches should stash Bruce now for when he gets called up.
Recommendation: Worth owning in NL-only leagues

Chase Headley – OF- SD – The whispers that the Padres will soon call up Chase Headley are beginning to get louder. Scott Hairston's .229 average, Jody Gerut's .192 mark and Paul McAnulty's .217 total are providing little reason to keep the prospect in the minor leagues. After a mediocre April, Headley has posted a .358 mark so far this May, and the switch hitter is now batting .285/.356/.444 with four home runs on the season. Headley hit 20 dingers in 433 minor league at-bats last season, but playing at Petco will limit his power output once he's finally called up.
Recommendation: Stash in NL-only leagues, monitor in mixed ones

Mark Kotsay – OF – ATL – After a 2007 lost largely to back injuries, Kotsay has gotten off to a quick start in Atlanta. He's currently hitting .306 and has knocked in 18 runs while scoring 20. The Braves have responded by moving Kotsay up in the order, which should result in the continued scoring of runs for the centerfielder. Still, he lacks power and speed, which limits his fantasy upside. He's also struggled against lefties this season, and like anyone with a history of back issues, he's a major injury risk.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

Ryan Franklin – RP – STL – On Saturday Tony LaRussa said that Jason Isringhausen was being removed from the closers role "for now." Izzy pitched a scoreless non-save inning following the news, and was poised to enter Wednesday's game in a save situation before the Cardinals scored two runs in the top of the ninth. He still pitched a perfect ninth, and odds are he'll reclaim his job soon if he keeps up the good work. Franklin is the favorite if Isringhausen continues to struggle, which makes him worth consideration until Izzy gets a tighter grasp on the job.Note: This was posted before Isringhausen was completely dominated on Thursday afternoon. Franklin is now worth owning in mixed leagues.
Recommendation: Worth considering in mixed leagues

Guillermo Mota – RP – MIL – On Sunday, Brewers manager Ned Yost confirmed that the Brewers had removed Eric Gagne from the closer's role. By Tuesday Gagne was right back in during a save situation, which he converted. Guillermo Mota converted one save in between, but he blew a save Wednesday night when Gagne was unavailable. Mota's stint as a closer seems to be over, but the situation in Milwaukee is worth monitoring.
Recommendation: Should be monitored in all leagues.

Jerry Hairston/Paul Janish – SS – CIN – With Jeff Keppinger headed to the disabled list, Hairston and Janish will share time at shortstop for the Reds. It's unclear exactly how things will shake out, but Hairston seems like the best bet in the short term. Hairston has shown little at the plate in recent years, but he could respond to regular playing time. Alex Gonzalez should reclaim the job at some point in June, but until then Hairston has a shot at being a serviceable shortstop in NL-only leagues.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues

Omar Vizquel – SS - SF - Well, Omar is back, and he's gotten off to a hot start, going 5-for-13 and even stealing a base. Vizquel was truly one of the worst hitters in the game last season, though, and while he could bounce back it's unlikely that the 41-year-old will make a drastic improvement. Still, he's certainly worth monitoring at a scarce position.
Recommendation: Worth watching in NL-only leagues

Jim Edmonds – OF – CHI - Edmonds and his .178 average have landed in Chicago, where he'll face righties as part of a platoon in center field. Edmonds should benefit from playing at Wrigley, but his struggles this season haven't been a result of the ballpark in San Diego: he's struck out 24 times in 90 at-bats. He's not going to hit for average, and his power numbers have declined sharply in recent years.
Recommendation: Worth a look in NL-only leagues

[Hache Man]

Izzy Finished?

There's plenty of good stuff that needs covering to finish up a busy week, let's skip the usual chatter and get right to the notes from around baseball …

* Jim Edmonds signed with the Cubs late Wednesday night and started in center field Thursday against the team that released him last week, going 1-for-4 versus the Padres while leaving seven runners on base and grounding into a double play. Edmonds is 37 years old and hit .178 in 26 games with San Diego after batting just .252/.325/.403 last season in St. Louis, yet Chicago was quick to once again push Felix Pie aside in order to make room for him on the roster.

Pie won the starting job in center field following a strong spring training and collected a hit in each of the Cubs' first three games, but went 0-for-4 in Game 4 and amazingly hasn't seen more than three straight starts since. He's 23 years old and has hit .306/.361/.484 in 196 games at Triple-A, yet manager Lou Piniella wasn't even willing to consistently play him against right-handers, often going with 31-year-old Reed Johnson and his .267/.328/.381 career mark versus righties.

Now Piniella will likely put Edmonds into the role that Pie should have been allowed to fill, starting him against most righties while Johnson takes over against most southpaws. Moving from Petco Park to Wrigley Field while being protected against lefties is just about the best-case scenario for Edmonds, but it won't matter much if he's as done as he looked in San Diego. He has a chance to be a moderate asset in NL-only leagues, but that's it at this point and Pie deserved better.

* Jason Isringhausen was stripped of ninth-inning duties last weekend, but made back-to-back scoreless appearances this week and found himself being asked to pitch the eighth inning of a one-run game Thursday night. He served up a three-run homer to Jason Bay and coughed up a total of four runs while being charged with another blown save, and the Cardinals announced shortly after the game that they plan to place him on the disabled list.

Even if he returns following the minimum 15-day stay on the shelf, Isringhausen is highly unlikely to resume closing before the All-Star break, if at all. He began the year by converting his first five save chances, but has blown six saves while giving up 16 earned runs in a dozen innings since then. That works out to an ugly 12.00 ERA and he has an 8-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio to match. Unlikely as it may sound, Ryan Franklin has a chance to keep the job for quite a while.

* Nick Johnson's career-long struggles with injuries have again relegated him to the disabled list, this time with a torn tendon in his right wrist that's expected to sideline him for 4-6 weeks. He's never been a fast healer, so it certainly wouldn't be shocking to see Johnson miss the bulk of the remaining season, which is unfortunate given that he was getting on base at his usual 40-percent clip even after missing all of last year with a broken leg.

There's zero good news to be had for Johnson at this stage, but the nice thing for the Nationals is that Dmitri Young is expected to return from the DL at some point this weekend and can step right in as the new starting first baseman. Young has just two at-bats this season because he began the year backing up Johnson and then suffered a back injury, but did a fantastic job filling in for Johnson in 2007, hitting .320/.378/.491 with 13 homers and 74 RBIs in 136 games.

* Ryan Braun became the latest young player to choose stability over the potential for a bigger payday down the road Thursday, signing an eight-year, $45 million contract that will keep him in Milwaukee through 2015. The deal includes his $455,000 salary for this season, so it's really a seven-year extension worth $44.5 million. That overtakes the deal that Jeff Suppan signed last winter as the largest contract in team history and buys out Braun's first two years of free agency.

Braun was already under the team's control through 2012 and wouldn't even have been eligible for arbitration until 2011, so there's plenty of risk involved in committing $45 million to player with less than one full season's worth of time in the majors under his belt. With that said, if he remains healthy and productive the Brewers will end up saving a significant amount of money over the life of the contract while delaying free agency, and for mid-payroll teams that's worth the risk.

AL Quick Hits: Alex Rodriguez (quadriceps) ran the bases prior to Thursday's game and is on track to return from the disabled list Tuesday … After signing a three-year, $28.5 million contract extension Wednesday, Scott Kazmir tossed six shutout innings Thursday to beat the Yankees and keep the Rays in first place … B.J. Ryan recorded his seventh save Thursday and has now thrown a dozen scoreless innings since returning from Tommy John elbow surgery … John Lackey came off the shelf Wednesday to make his season debut, tossing seven innings of one-run ball versus the White Sox … Despite Travis Hafner's struggles at the plate and past health problems due to playing first base, the Indians are expected to give him some time there over Ryan Garko during interleague play … Ian Kennedy rejoined to the rotation Thursday after a one-start demotion to Triple-A, coughing up five runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays … Both the Rockies and Brewers are rumored to be interested in Julian Tavarez, who was designated for assignment earlier this week.
newyorkmets.com
NL Quick Hits: Tim Lincecum struck out 10 batters Thursday and has yet to allow more than three runs in a start this season, but got stuck with a no-decision when the bullpen imploded … Chipper Jones and his MLB-leading .418 batting average were scratched from Thursday's lineup because a groin injury … Manager John Russell said Wednesday that Ryan Doumit (thumb) will miss at least a month, giving Ronny Paulino more time than expected to be an NL-only asset … Ben Sheets took a shutout into the seventh inning Thursday before allowing six runs on three homers while recording just one out … Manager Joe Torre said Wednesday that Nomar Garciaparra (calf) could see time at shortstop if he comes off the disabled list before Rafael Furcal (back) … Mike Pelfrey lost his fourth straight start Thursday despite taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and allowing one run over 7.1 frames … Lance Berkman delivered a game-winning homer Thursday and now ranks second in the majors in both batting average (.391) and RBIs (43) … Initially expected to land on the DL, Luis Castillo (quadriceps) instead started Thursday and went 2-for-2 with a walk.

[Hache Man]

Key players getting healthy


If it seems to you as though there have been more headlines about injuries than about wins and losses, you are probably correct. According to Baseball-Injury-Report.com, Major League Baseball is on pace to set a record for number of players who spend time on the disabled list.

From 2003 to 2006, an average of 136 players landed on the DL from spring training through April 30 each year. Last season, that number jumped to 168, a 24% increase. As of April 30, there were 181 players who spent time on the disabled list, another 8% jump.

Over the full season, a record 404 players hit the DL in 2007, 6% more than the previous high, 382 in 2004. This year's current pace would put 417 players on the shelf, another record.

For fantasy leaguers, injuries were just an annoyance 10 years ago. We knew they were coming, but only a few of them made any real difference each year.

Today, every fantasy team should expect to weather about a dozen DL stays during the season. That means if your team only has eight or 10 injured players over the course of the season, you are lucky.

Injury analysis is no longer a luxury. Without the insight into every player's health history, knowledge of how each injury affects future performance and even team proficiency at keeping their players healthy, you are essentially leaving the success of your fantasy team to chance.

Here is some of that insight for a group of key players currently on the shelf:

Prognosis positive

* Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Blalock is recovering from a left hamstring injury and is expected to be ready for activation later in May. This injury should not affect his hitting. Blalock's power stroke was expected to bounce back this season after he had surgery to repair a blood-circulation problem early in 2007.

While it is overly optimistic to expect him to return to his 30-homer levels, he could hit 15 to 18 once he returns.

* Chris Carpenter, RHP, Cardinals: Carpenter is coming off Tommy John surgery in July 2007. The Cardinals believe he will be back in the second half of the 2008 season. That should be enough time for him to regain confidence and touch with his pitches.

Heading into 2009, Carpenter will be ready to return to his pre-elbow injury form.

* Phil Hughes, RHP, Yankees: The combination of Hughes' early-season struggles and his strained side will cause many fantasy owners to write him off in 2008. However, he is still a talented starter, and he will have the opportunity to step up the last four months of the season.

While Hughes can help contending teams in 2008, he might be better suited as an acquisition for next year.

* John Lackey, RHP, Angels: He is recovering from a strained triceps in his pitching arm. His recovery has been rock solid, and he should hit the ground running once he returns. The Angels expect to activate him May 14 or May 15. Reports say Lackey's arm strength is good, and he is looking in midseason form. Because he is starting his season later, he should be at the top of his game and be fresh the rest of the 2008 season.

* Pedro Martinez, RHP, Mets: Is it time to officially label Martinez injury prone? This year's strained left hamstring comes on the heels of rotator cuff surgery the offseason before. Martinez and the Mets are being deliberate with his recovery plan. When he returns in late in May or early June, the odds are good his hamstring will be 100%, and his arm strength should be close to normal. He will probably have four to six starts before the All-Star break and could contribute a solid 3.50-level ERA in the second half. newyorkmets.com

* Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees: Rodriguez's strained thigh muscle has improved enough that he has been taking part in some baseball activities. Because he will have missed almost two weeks by the time he faces live pitching in batting practice, it is still possible that the Yankees will send him out on a short rehab assignment. He is scheduled to return to action later this week and should rebound to previous productivity levels without a hitch.

Prognosis questionable

* Eric Chavez, 3B, Athletics: Chances are pretty good Chavez's back woes will hinder him periodically even after he returns from the DL in the coming weeks. Players with back problems struggle with their power numbers because the core strength of their body is less than 100%. His back woes, plus the fact he had surgery on both shoulders in the fall means Chavez has his work cut out for him. There are much better targets than Chavez to improve your team in 2008.

* Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers: The Dodgers could use a boost to their offense, but LaRoche is not going to be the man this season. He is currently at Class AAA, recovering from a torn ligament in his right thumb. Thumb injuries can affect a player's power just as wrist injuries do. It takes time to regain all the strength in the thumb and hand. Do not be tempted to acquire him for a second-half offensive run. The odds are against it happening in 2008.

* Mark Mulder, LHP, Cardinals: Mulder has had surgery on his left rotator cuff the past two Septembers. Now he has suffered a setback that will delay his 2008 return. Lots of fantasy owners took a flier on him on draft day. The percentage play tells us the odds of Mulder returning this season and pitching effectively are prohibitive. They also do not improve much in 2009 because of the nature of the multiple shoulder surgeries.

* Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays: Wells suffered a fractured left wrist making a diving catch during a May 9 game. The good news is he will not need surgery, but he is still expected to miss up to two months. Once he returns, it will take him awhile to regain his hitting eye. Wells will not produce much power once he returns, either. Hitters who suffer wrist injuries similar to Wells' usually do not regain all their power for at least a year after the injury. You can use Derrek Lee's recovery from a similar injury as a benchmark.

[Hache Man]

Izzy Done? Igawa Certainly Is

Closers lose their jobs, Werth shows his worth and Igawa disappears again. All that and more in this week's Week That Was.

Rafael Betancourt: In a move that should surprise few, Rafael Betancourt was removed from the closer role in Cleveland. While reports indicate that Betancourt will be part of a committee, I doubt it. In his last seven appearances, Betancourt has given up earned runs five times. That is simply not getting the job done. Betancourt is effective as a set up guy and should be returned to that role. One can only hope that the Indians learned their lesson when they tried to shoehorn Fausto Carmona into the closer role a couple of years back. Look for Masa Kobayashi to get the lion's share of the saves with Rafael Perez stealing a couple in situations that call for a lefty.

Jason Isringhausen: The Redbirds placed closer Jason Isringhausen on the DL this week (but only after dropping him from the closer role). From both a baseball and fantasy perspective, this poses quite a puzzle. First, has Izzy lost it? Frankly, I think the odds are that he will recover with some rest and return to the role. However, what will the Cards do in the interim? They have announced that Ryan Franklin will get the majority of the save chances with Russ Springer getting a few shots. Neither has closer stuff or is likely to be a long term solution. Franklin, for example, has only 9 strikeouts in 20 innings (and that goes with 8 walks). Perhaps they will convert a starter to that role as they did with Adam Wainwright a couple of years ago. I have no info here, but perhaps Anthony Reyes could surprise. Call it a hunch but it could not hurt to stash away Reyes.

Dimitri Young: Just in time for the annual Nick Johnson trip to the disabled list, the Nats got Dmitri Young back from the DL. Well, that worked out nicely. Perhaps that was the plan all along – take two injury prone players and make sure they take turns getting hurt and you get one solid 1B. Nicely done! Ok, seriously, if Young is available in your league, go get him. In a pitcher friendly home park last year, Young smacked 13 dingers and drove in 74. If you drafted Nick Johnson and expected him to play a full season, here are two pieces of advice you apparently need – no, the Brooklyn Bridge is not for sale and yes gullible IS in the dictionary.

Ian Kennedy: Ian Kennedy returned from a short minor league tune up, losing Thursday to the Rays 5-2. Kennedy was not nearly as bad as the media and the Yankee fans want to believe. He gave up only 6 baserunners in 5 innings while striking out 3. This kid has the stuff to win in the big leagues right now. Three things are going to happen in NY. First, ARod will return. Second, the Yankees will start to score like the Yankees should. Third, the media will stop with the moronic comparisons of Kennedy to Johann Santana. By the end of the year, Kennedy will prove that his quality pitching at all levels of baseball last year was real. If you can grab Kennedy now, do it. No, he will not be Johann this year, but yes, he will be a quality starter for the Yankees and fantasy teams for years to come.

Jhonny Peralta: Jhonny Peralta is coming alive. In his last 11 at bats, Peralta has 5 hits, two of them, dingers. Yes, Peralta is a streaky hitter. However, he hits in a lineup that is going to improve as the year marches on. Last year, at age 25, he hit 21 dingers and knocked in 72. This year, in his 26 growth year, look for Peralta to best those numbers while posting a solid enough average and manning a MI spot in your fantasy lineup. If there is a Peralta owner in your league fixating on the .222 average, swindle the fool. Peralta will be a solid producer for the last ¾ of the season.

Ryan Doumit: The Ryan Doumit magical run is over – at least for a month. Doumit and his gaudy average landed on the DL this week with an injured thumb. Now, Ronny Paulino gets his starting gig back. Here is buying opportunity to improve your catching situation. Paulino hit .310 in 2006 and .262 in 2007. There is no reason to believe he will stay down at his current .225 pace. No, he is not going to remind anyone of Russell Martin or Brian McCann, but Paulino will be a better than average producer at a position where any production is hard to find.

Felix Pie: The Cubbies sent Felix Pie back to AAA this week. Frankly, while Pie has shown the ability to hit in AAA in the past, it seemed to me that the Cubs were putting too much pressure on the 23 year old to play CF everyday while the team contends. If they are looking to win this year, the plan of platooning Edmonds and Reed Johnson makes a lot of sense to me. From a fantasy perspective, Edmonds has found a perfect home. He will not be counted on to be a big bat, so he can relax. He should hit with power in Wrigley. If you can afford a .250ish average the rest of the way, solid power should be there. Johnson, on the other hand, is going to be on the short side of the platoon and should be started only in the deepest of NL leagues. Pie –well, he should be stashed in the minors, but I do not see the Cubs using him a lot this year unless they unexpectedly drop from contention.

Claudio Vargas: Claudio Vargas had a quality Mets debut this week, giving up just two runs in 6 1/3 innings, while striking out six. Vargas is an interesting puzzle. On the one hand, he has never posted a quality fantasy ERA or WHIP while starting in Milwaukee. However, he has had a K/BB ratio of over 2.0 each year. What does that tell me? I don't know. However, here are a couple of thoughts. First, Vargas is just 30 and many pitchers hit their stride later than hitters. Second, he is now pitching in a much better pitchers' park. Third, while the Mets are not the best fielding team in the league, their infield (even with Delgado at first) is worlds ahead of the cast iron glove crew the Brewers put behind Claudio last year. Bottom line – there are soft data reasons to believe Vargas will be successful in New York. newyorkmets.com

Jayson Werth: In a game he will remember for a very long time, Jayson Werth smacked 3 HR and drove in 8 in the Phillies big win Friday night. So far this year, Werth has 9 HR and 26 RBI – not too shabby for a part time player. While Werth will not soon challenge Bonds' 73 HR mark, he is a quality hitter who will continue to enjoy success in a half to three quarter role in Philly. Last year, in just 255 AB, Werth hit .298 with 8 HR and 49 RBI. He will easily best those figures this year. Bottom line: after losing almost two full years to injury, Werth is healthy and hitting. BUY.

Kei Igawa: In the best news Yankee fans could hear other than ARod and Posada are healthy again, the Yankees engaged in classic "addition by subtraction" when they sent Kei Igawa back to AAA (you could almost hear the cheers of AAA hitters from here). Hopefully, I will have no cause to write about Igawa again this season.

And finally, the part of the article you love to hate -- Schultz Says: "It's never a good thing when one of your up-and-coming youngsters (or pseudo-youngsters) goes down with an injury. In the case of Ryan Doumit, his stint on the DL is going to sting a little bit more than normal. Unlike other hitting positions, the drop off between an above-average catcher and the replacement player you can pick up on waivers is pretty vast. Said another way, Doumit was hitting so well - .350, 5 HR, 21 R - there's little chance of finding a suitable replacement on the free agent wire. To borrow Colton's overused phrase from last year: if you don't want to miss a beat while Doumit recovers you need to look for lightning in a bottle. (Note: that phrase isn't hackneyed when I use it). If you've got a decent backup catcher, apply the screws to the Doumit owner in your league, he's in worse shape than he may imagine.

Speaking of former phenoms, it's worth noting that Dallas McPherson is simply tearing it up in AAA. The former Angels 3B-of-the-future is now a reclamation project in Marlins minor league system and reclaiming himself quite nicely. With Florida being the surprise leader in the NL East, they have every incentive to get the best team out there and Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms may not quite fit that role. Pay attention to when the Marlins call up McPherson; the Angels also gave up on Bobby Jenks and bad personnel decisions tend not to happen in a vacuum. Big D might be an undervalued commodity when he takes the field in South Florida. Be ready to invest low.

Toot toot! Anyone notice who's picked up a couple saves in Cleveland lately with Betancourt struggling in the closer role? Who could've ever seen that coming. Hope you listened to me here. I shall put my own horn away now and let Glenn sing my praises

Response: Good stuff this week! However, on McPherson, but I am not at all convinced he can hit much above the Mendoza line in the show. Finally, as to tooting, I figure whatever Schultz does on his own time is best left unexplored (I couldn't resist!).

[Hache Man]

The Moose is loose!

The first round of interleague play will be over by the start of the week, so baseball purists can go back to debating other modern features of the game, such as the designated hitter and Jason Giambi in a thong.

Here's what's happening this week:

Two-Start Pitchers

American League

Must Starts
James Shields - @OAK (Joe Blanton), BAL (Daniel Cabrera)
Roy Halladay – LAA (John Lackey), KC (Gil Meche)
John Lackey - @TOR (Roy Halladay), @CHW (Jose Contreras)
Joe Blanton – TB (James Shields), BOS (Bartolo Colon)
Jon Lester – KC (Luke Hochevar), @OAK (Justin Duchscherer)
Justin Verlander – SEA (Carlos Silva), MIN (Glen Perkins)
John Lackey - @TOR (Roy Halladay), @CHW (Jose Contreras)
Mike Mussina – BAL (Daniel Cabrera), SEA (Carlos Silva)

Other Options
Daniel Cabrera - @NY (Mike Mussina), @TB (James Shields)
Jose Contreras – CLE (Paul Byrd), LAA (John Lackey)
Paul Byrd - @CHW (Jose Contreras), TEX (Doug Mathis*)
Luke Hochevar - @BOS (Jon Lester), @TOR (Shaun Marcum)
Gil Meche - @BOS (Bartolo Colon), @TOR (Roy Halladay)
Boof Bonser – TEX (Scott Feldman), @DET (Nate Robertson)
Glen Perkins – TEX (Doug Mathis), @DET (Justin Verlander)
Carlos Silva - @DET (Justin Verlander), @NYY (Carlos Silva)
Scott Feldman - @MIN (Boof Bonser), @CLE (Cliff Lee)
Doug Mathis* - @MIN (Glen Perkins), @CLE (Paul Byrd)

*Notes: Dough Mathis will start for the Rangers on Tuesday, but it's not guaranteed that he'll make a second start later this week.


National League

Must Start
Jake Peavy – STL (Todd Wellemeyer), CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Micah Owings - @FLA (Mark Hendrickson), @ATL (Tom Glavine) atlantabraves.com
Cole Hamels - @WAS (Jason Bergmann), @HOU (Chris Sampson)
Ted Lilly - @HOU (Brian Moehler), @PIT (Paul Maholm)
Derek Lowe – CIN (Bronson Arroyo), STL (Kyle Lohse)
Todd Wellemeyer - @SD (Jake Peavy), @LAD (Chad Billingsley)
Chad Billingsley – CIN (Matt Belisle), STL (Todd Wellemeyer)
Greg Maddux – STL (Joel Pineiro), CIN (Matt Belisle)

Other Options
Tom Glavine – NYM (Claudio Vargas), ARI (Micah Owings)
Bronson Arroyo - @LAD (Derek Lowe), @SD (Jake Peavy)
Matt Belisle - @LAD (Chad Billingsly), @SD (Greg Maddux)
Jorge De La Rosa – SF (Pat Misch), NYM (Undecided) newyorkmets.com
Mark Hendrickson – ARI (Micah Owings), SF (Pat Misch)
Brian Moehler – CHC (Ted Lilly), PHI (Brett Myers)
Chris Sampson – CHC (Ryan Dempster), PHI (Cole Hamels)
Manny Parra - @PIT (Paul Maholm), @WAS (Tim Redding)
Brett Myers - @WAS (Tim Redding), @HOU (Brian Moehler)
Cole Hamels - @WAS (Jason Bergmann), @HOU (Chris Sampson)
Paul Maholm – MIL (Manny Parra), CHC (Ted Lilly)
Jake Peavy – STL (Todd Wellemeyer), CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Pat Misch - @COL (Jorge De La Rosa), @FLA (Mark Hendrickson)
Todd Wellemeyer - @SD (Jake Peavy), @LAD (Chad Billingsley)
Tim Redding – PHI (Brett Myers), MIL (Manny Parra)

*Notes: Claudio Vargas and John Maine are pitching a double header on Tuesday. It's unclear in what order they'll pitch after that, but one will face Jorge De La Rosa on Sunday.

Possible Streamers

American League

Tuesday, 5/20 – Jon Lester vs. KC – Lester is worth using in the right circumstance, and a visit by the worst offense in the American League should suffice. Lester is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his two starts against the Royals.

Tuesday, 5/20 – Mike Mussina vs. BAL – Mussina has gotten off to an impressive start so far this season, and has won five straight contests while lowering his ERA to 3.99 and his WHIP to 1.17. He'll face the sixth-worst offense in the league on Tuesday, and the eighth-worst on Sunday, making him a solid add this week.

Friday, 5/23 – Matt Garza vs. BAL – As we said in our blurb for Garza, he's allowed just three runs in 19 2/3 innings since returning from the disabled list. See how he does against the Cards on Saturday, but against the Orioles, he's worth consideration regardless.

Saturday, 5/24 – Edwin Jackson vs. BAL – Like his teammate Matt Garza, Jackson has been hot of late, shutting out the Blue Jays for eight innings and the Yankees for seven in his last two starts. A match-up with the Orioles should provide favorable results.

National League

Tuesday, 5/20 – Greg Maddux vs. STL – Maddux is pitching at home against the Cardinals, a team he's gone 3-2 against with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in the past two seasons. Should be a nice start as far as averages are concerned, and he pitches against Matt Belisle and the Reds at home in his second start, which should be good for a win.

Tuesday, 5/20 – Joel Pineiro @ SD – Pineiro will square off against Maddux in San Diego. He'll have Petco working to his advantage, and has also gone 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP against the Padres over the past two seasons. Start him and Maddux and you'll probably get a win.

Wednesday, 5/21 – Hiroki Kuroda vs. CIN – Kuroda's bullpen has cost him a couple times, but he's been solid, posting a 3.67 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He should have another nice game against the Reds in Los Angeles.

Saturday 5/24 – Bronson Arroyo @ SD – Arroyo has given up just one run in his last fifteen starts, and after a start against the potentially dangerous Dodgers, he'll face the Padres. The Padres have scored the fewest runs in major league baseball, so he should do fine.

Total Games

American League
7: BAL, KC, MIN, TEX
6: BOS, CHW, CLE, DET, LAA, NYY, OAK, SEA, TB, TOR

National League
7: ATL, CIN, HOU, NYM, PHI, SD
6: ARI, CHC, COL, FLA, LAD, MIL, PIT, SF, STL, WAS


Righty vs. Lefty match-ups

American League
Baltimore - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Boston - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Minnesota - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 3 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties, 1 Undecided
Seattle - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Texas - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Rays will face three left-handed pitchers this week, which could be nice for Jason Bartlett (.368 vs. LHP). It might hurt Eric Hinske, who is just a .173 hitter against lefties over the past three seasons. Evan Longoria could also struggle – he's hit .107 against lefties so far this season.

National League:
Arizona - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Florida - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Houston - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers – 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 3 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties, 1 Undecided
San Diego - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Washington - 2 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties, 1 Undecided

Notes:

The Diamondbacks face four lefties next week, which should help Eric Byrnes bust out of his slump: he's hit lefties 22 points better than righties in the last 2+ years. Conor Jackson should also benefit as he's hit .302 against lefties in the past three years. Chris Snyder is hitting .294 off lefties this season, and Chris Young is hitting .327 off them, making both a solid play.

The Cubs will face three lefties, which means that Reed Johnson should a few starts. Derrek Lee is hitting .349 off lefties this season, and Alfonso Soriano is hitting .375. That's important information for those of you in three team leagues. Ryan Theriot is hitting .378 off lefties this season, so he makes a solid start.

Milwaukee has four starts against lefties, and while Mike Cameron hasn't gotten a hit of a lefty yet this season, he's hit 32 points better off them over the past three seasons. Bill Hall has hit .300 off lefties over the last three years. Corey hart is hitting .314 off them in that same period.

The Mets face three lefties, and Moises Alou has hit an impressive .361 against lefties over the past three years. With Luis Castillo out, Damion Easley should see significant playing time, and he's hit .309 off lefties in the past three years.

Washington also has three games against lefties next week, which is good news for Ryan Zimmerman (.330 career vs. LHP) and Austin Kearns (.293 vs. LHP last 3 years). Christian Guzman has hit just .210 versus lefties in the past three years, but he's hitting .367 in 60 at-bats against them this season.

The Injury Bug

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Chone Figgins – 3B – Could return by end of week
John Smoltz – SP/RP – Could return by end of week
Jason Isringhausen – RP – Went on 15-day disabled list
Kyle Lohse – SP – Day-to-day with sore shoulder
Doug Davis – SP – Should return on Friday
Rafael Furcal – SS – Could return on Wednesday, more likely Friday
Joe Borowski – RP – Should return on Friday
Jack Wilson – SS – Could return by end of week
Alex Rodriguez – SS – Should return Tuesday
Bartolo Colon – SP – Should start on Tuesday


Waiver Wired

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired.

AL

1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Kenji Johjima
3. Eddie Guardado
4. Mike Mussina
5. Matt Garza

NL

1. Ryan Franklin
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Jay Bruce
4. Chase Headley
5. Mark Kotsay

[Hache Man]

AL Potential Callups

Sorry about the lack of a column last week. I was on the road, and though I still planned to get something done, it didn't work out. This weekend's columns will look at potential in-season callups. It's the usual drill: AL today, NL on Monday.

American League Potential Callups

Baltimore - The Orioles have added Freddie Bynum (from the DL) and Alex Cintron in an attempt to shore up their infield. Bynum is clearly the better short-term bet of the two, though if he fails defensively at shortstop, he could find himself replaced by Cintron within a month. At the moment, Bynum is the one worth grabbing in AL-only leagues. … Scott Moore is struggling mightily with a .172 average in 87 at-bats in Triple, but he still has a real shot at taking over at first, third or DH later this year when the Orioles look to move veterans. With his 20-homer power, he's a fine bet to have value in the second half. … Both Hayden Penn and Radhames Liz have ERAs right around 5.00 in Triple-A. The two figure to get looks later on, but Single-A Frederick left-hander Jake Arrieta is at least as much of a sleeper as either for this year. … The Orioles may need a closer in the second half if George Sherrill is traded, but Jim Hoey is done due to a shoulder injury and Bob McCrory just flopped in his first major league trial. Liz would be interesting if moved to the pen, but it doesn't currently look like any of Baltimore's minor league relievers will have fantasy value this year. … 2007 first-rounder Matt Wieters could be up for the first time in September, but probably not before. One of the game's best prospects, he should be ready to take over for Ramon Hernandez next spring.

Boston - Jed Lowrie was returned to Triple-A last week, but recent events suggest that he has a very realistic chance of overtaking Julio Lugo for the starting job at shortstop in the second half. He hit .310/.340/.476 in 42 at-bats during his time in the majors, and he was looking like a far more reliable defender than Lugo. He'd be nice to have on reserve in AL-only leagues. … Bartolo Colon is hardly a prospect, but he probably will be up to join the rotation before he can opt out of his deal on June 1. Clay Buchholz's DL assignment has already opened up a spot. Colon is back throwing in the mid-90s on occasion, so he might be an option in mixed leagues once he gets his shot. … The Red Sox will also have both Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden available if needed. Ideally, they wouldn't have to put either in the rotation with Colon and maybe Curt Schilling on the way back. However, Masterson could make a real impact as a reliever come August. His hard sinker has the potential to make him a force once through a lineup.

Chicago - The White Sox haven't needed any replacement starters so far, but Lance Broadway will surely be called on at some point. The 2005 first-round pick is 5-1 with a 1.67 ERA, 40 H and 29/16 K/BB in 54 IP for Triple-A Charlotte. His stuff is underwhelming, but he's made enough progress against left-handers that he should be able to hold his own as a fourth or fifth starter. … Off to less impressive starts are Jack Egbert (6.33 ERA in 21 1/3 IP) and knuckleballer Charlie Haeger (6.04 ERA in 50 2/3 IP). I had Egbert as a better sleeper than Broadway for this year, but it might be 2009 before he's ready to contribute. … Josh Fields is on the DL with a knee injury, but he's certainly not to be forgotten about. Should his break come, his power would make him an option in mixed leagues in the second half. … The White Sox also figure to go back to Jerry Owens at some point, though it will probably be as a fourth outfielder. His speed would give him a little value if he starts twice per week. … Chris Getz is available in Triple-A if Juan Uribe is released, but he can't offer much speed or power. Danny Richar will be the more intriguing option for fantasy purposes once he returns from a fractured rib.

Cleveland - The Indians have already reached down to Triple-A for two of the team's three minor leaguers that seemed likely to have some fantasy value this year. Ben Francisco replaced Jason Michaels and should prove to be worth using in AL-only leagues while playing over David Dellucci versus lefties and sharing time against right-handers with Franklin Gutierrez. Aaron Laffey is filling in for the injured Jake Westbrook and doing a great job. Too bad he's due to lose the spot at the end of the month anyway. … Also at Buffalo is Josh Barfield, but he's hitting just .250/.290/.384 while attempting to bounce back from an ugly 2007. A good start would have put him in position to capitalize on Asdrubal Cabrera's struggles, but it doesn't look like he'll be a factor anytime soon. … The Indians called up Jeremy Sowers to make a spot start last week after their doubleheader Monday, but he's seventh on the SP depth chart right now. Adam Miller is eighth, making him a long shot to contribute.

Detroit - While it looked like the farm system was empty after the Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria trades, the Tigers have already gotten contributions from Armando Galarraga, Clete Thomas and Matt Joyce, plus they still have sluggers Mike Hessman, Jeff Larish and Brent Clevlen at Triple-A. Hessman is no prospect, but the 30-year-old is hitting .299 and leading the minor leagues in homers with 18. Larish is batting .287/380/.586 with 12 bombs. Clevlen is hitting .293/.373/.531. All three do whiff a lot, but there's still the potential for fantasy value from each. Larish is the most interesting. The Tigers should give him a shot at DH if they ever lose Gary Sheffield to the DL. He wouldn't hit for average, but his power is for real and he'd draw a fair number of walks. … Mike Hollimon has nice power for a middle infielder and could be called up to occupy a utility role if someone gets hurt. Realistically, it'll probably be 2009 before he's a candidate for fantasy value. … There's less of interest on Toledo's pitching staff. Blaine Neal and Ian Ostlund could be serviceable relievers, but that's it. Virgil Vasquez is the most promising of the team's starters, but he has a 7.08 ERA this year. Yorman Bazardo may get another chance at some point.



Kansas City - The Royals haven't seen many of their position prospects step up this year. One exception is infielder Mike Aviles, who has been straddling the borderline between prospect and non-prospect for years. The 27-year-old is batting .350/.378/.644 in 143 at-bats for Triple-A Omaha. He's not more than a stopgap at short, but since he can hold his own at second and third, he could still make it as a utilityman. It will take an injury to give him a chance. … The opportunity was there for Ryan Shealy because of Ross Gload's poor start, but he's hitting .222/.300/.470 in Triple-A and is currently hurt. Until he gets his OBP up, there will be no reason to give him a chance. … Shane Costa and Mitch Maier both have OPSs over 900, but they'll be nothing more than mediocre reserves. … On the pitching side, the Royals still have Kyle Davies (4-2, 2.43 ERA) looking for an opening. He deserves a chance to overtake Brett Tomko, but he'd be a poor bet in AL-only leagues. … Carlos Rosa and the injured Daniel Cortes are candidates to move from Double-A to the majors this year. Rosa has a 1.20 ERA in eight starts for Northwest Arkansas. Cortes just returned from a strained quad. Both will be better sleepers for 2009.

Los Angeles - Salt Lake has been the most successful club in the PCL by a wide margin, and the Angels have been shuffling players up and down all year. The team's most interesting players are up now or were recently: RHP Nick Adenhart, SS/3B Brandon Wood, 2B Sean Rodriguez, 1B Kendry Morales, RHP Jose Arredondo, 3B Matt Brown and C Bobby Wilson. No one in the group is all that likely to have fantasy value this season unless traded. Wood and Morales would seem to have the best chance of starting for another team during the final two months. Wood isn't ready yet, but as a regular, he'd probably have some fantasy value. … Yet to receive a look is Nick Green. He's a long shot to make it as a long-term starter, but he probably would have been a better short-term option than Adenhart as a replacement for John Lackey. … Outfielder Terry Evans has speed and power, but little on-base ability. The Angels have no need for him, but he's another player who could be traded. He's likely to end up as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but there is the chance that he'll get a starting gig elsewhere in the second half. … While many thought he'd end up there eventually, it was still a surprise to see Stephen Marek moved to the pen this spring. He has a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings for Double-A Arkansas. It's possible he'll debut as a middle reliever later on.

Minnesota - Even beyond Francisco Liriano, the Twins are loaded with potential rotation alternatives. They've already turned to Glen Perkins, yet they still have Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Brian Duensing at Triple-A and Anthony Swarzak at Double-A. Humber looked like the first alternate for the rotation at the end of the spring, but he has posted a 5.09 ERA and struck out just 22 in 40 2/3 innings this season. Mulvey has better numbers and looks like the more intriguing option at this point. Swarzak has the most upside of the group, but he's the least likely to get a chance this year. … Potential offensive help is harder to find. Alexi Casilla is already up, but he had a 600 OPS at Triple-A and was caught stealing three times in seven attempts. Brian Buscher is essentially the same player as Mike Lamb, right down to the subpar defense at third. Jason Pridie has disappointed with a .236/.289/.327 line for Rochester. The one player at Rochester seemingly likely to have value later on is Denard Span, who has taken a huge step forward with his .364/.462/.523 start. He's also 14-for-17 as a basestealer. The 2002 first-round pick still doesn't project as a starter, but he appeared very unlikely to have any career in the majors at all as recently as a year ago. He'll be a candidate to start in the outfield if someone gets hurt.

New York - The pool of hitters for the Yankees to choose from is shallow. Speedy outfielder Brett Gardner will come in handy as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement in September and should be a strong candidate for the postseason roster if the Yankees advance, but he'd likely struggle if pressed into regular duty. Jason Lane is available if needed, but he's hitting just .236/.331/.444 in Triple-A. First baseman Juan Miranda is at .267/.398/.410 in 105 AB at the same level. That he's walking more than he's striking out is a good sign, but he's still probably a year away from being a realistic option at first. If the Bombers need a bat in July, they'll probably have to trade for it. … Fortunately, the Yankees have plenty of young pitching both to try this year and to trade if necessary. They have two starters in Triple-A (Steven White and veteran Dan Giese) and three in Double-A (Daniel McCutchen, Chase Wright and Jason Jones) with ERAs under 3.00. That doesn't even count Alan Horne, who is making his way back from a biceps strain. McCutchen is probably the best sleeper for this year, with Horne right behind. … I'm not even going to try to list all of the probably major league relievers the Yankees have at their top two affiliates, but do watch for David Robertson. I don't think the much-hyped Mark Melancon will be of any use this year.

Oakland - The A's may have the game's deepest farm system after their moves last winter, but there isn't all that much short-term help available. Carlos Gonzalez, who nearly made the team out of spring training before the A's smartly reconsidered, is hitting .290/.345/.411 in between injuries at Sacramento. There's still a good chance he'll get a shot this year, but it probably won't happen before August. Travis Buck will likely receive another opportunity first. … Second baseman Kevin Melillo is batting .294/.368/.480 in his second year in Triple-A. As long as he keeps hitting, he'll be the probable choice to take over at second if Mark Ellis is traded. A left-handed hitter with modest power, he might be a platoon player. … One of the biggest surprises in the minors this year has been third baseman Jesus Guzman. A refugee from the Mariners system, he's hitting .353/.399/.555 in 173 at-bats at Double-A Midland. There's a slight chance he'd be a look at third in the second half if Eric Chavez ends up having a lost year. … The pitchers to watch for are Gio Gonzalez and James Simmons. Gonzalez has a 4.85 ERA and a 30/22 K/BB ratio in 39 IP in Triple-A, so he's not ready yet. However, he'll likely step it up sometime soon. Simmons, a polished 2007 first-rounder, has a 2.93 ERA and a 31/8 K/BB ratio in 40 IP at Midland. He lacks Gonzalez's upside, but in such a favorable ballpark, he'd be interesting in AL-only leagues if he gets his shot. … High-upside righties Henry Rodriguez and Trevor Cahill are still a year away.



Seattle - Seattle has already called up its two potential impact players in Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. Balentien is off to the better start, but Clement still should prove to be the better hitter in the end. He should be looked at as a No. 2 catcher in mixed leagues once he qualifies at the position. … The cupboard is pretty much bare after those two. Former major leaguers Jeremy Reed and Victor Diaz are producing in Triple-A and might be candidates for callups if they can stay hot. Reed, though, doesn't figure to have any fantasy value unless traded. Bryan LaHair could put up Richie Sexson-type numbers if needed, but we're talking 2007-08 Sexson. Middle infielder Oswaldo Navarro has a nice glove, but no power or speed at all. … On the pitching side, there's Ryan Feierabend and R.A. Dickey. Feierabend has been a big flop as a major leaguer, but he's sporting a 1.67 ERA in seven starts at Triple-A Tacoma right now. The Mariners could consider shaking things up by sending Miguel Batista to the pen and adding Feierabend to the rotation. They'd have Dickey as a fallback if it didn't work out. Dickey, a conventional pitcher turned knuckleballer, could serve as an innings-eating fifth starter.

Tampa Bay - It figured that at least one of the Rays' pitching phenoms would contribute this season, but David Price is just now getting ready to return from a strained elbow suffered in spring training and neither Wade Davis nor Jake McGee has dominated in Double-A. Also, their No. 4 pitching prospect, Jeff Niemann, is having more shoulder troubles. As a result, Jason Hammel and J.P. Howell would seem to be the next two starters on the depth chart. Price and Davis may yet become options in September. … It's also been a rough year for the team's position prospects beyond Evan Longoria. Reid Brignac and Joel Guzman have OPSs in the low-700s in Triple-A, and a frustrated John Jaso is at 722 after being asked to repeat Double-A. Outfielder Desmond Jennings has yet to play because of a back injury. If the Rays need offensive help, they'll have to turn to more veteran players. Justin Ruggiano appears ready to contribute as a part-timer. The outfielder is hitting .338/.424/.620 in 71 at-bats for Triple-A Durham. Dan Johnson is looking like nice insurance with an 1119 OPS in his 73 at-bats. The Rays would have to make a trade should they lose a middle infielder. Second baseman Elliot Johnson had a strong spring, but he's not a major leaguer.

Texas - The Rangers have already called on Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brandon Boggs, Chris Shelton, German Duran, Doug Mathis and A.J. Murray. Still, they're not lacking for more choices. Chris Davis, who is currently hitting .331/.379/.591, seems likely to end the season as the Rangers' first baseman, though there's no reason to call him up yet. By Aug. 1, he should prove worthy of an extended opportunity. His potential 35-homer power makes him one of the AL's top fantasy prospects. … Nelson Cruz has been an awesome force in Triple-A, hitting .347/.477/.694, so he could get one more shot before the Rangers count him out for good. Former first-rounder John Mayberry Jr. never put up great numbers in Double-A, but he's hitting .328/.366/.657 since replacing Boggs in Triple-A. I doubt he'll help this year, but the opportunity could be there if Marlon Byrd gets traded and/or Josh Hamilton lands on the DL. … Taylor Teagarden is probably the game's No. 2 catching prospect behind Wieters, but he's a long shot to contribute unless the Rangers give up on Salty as a catcher (very unlikely). … Top pitching prospect Eric Hurley has a 6.80 ERA despite a 52/19 K/BB ratio in 47 2/3 IP at Triple-A. That's because he's allowed 11 homers. He'll probably debut in July or August, but he shouldn't have any fantasy value at first. … Warner Madrigal, a gift from the Angels over the winter, is showing closer potential out of the pen. He's not going to have any fantasy value this year, but he could be worst stashing away anyway.

Toronto - Adam Lind found himself back in Triple-A after going 1-for-19 for the Jays, but he still figures to be an upgrade over Shannon Stewart versus right-handers once he gets a real opportunity. He's going to have value in AL-only leagues at some point. … One would never know how much progress David Purcey has made this year by looking at his major league results. After getting lit up in his spot start Friday and sent back down, he might be bypassed next time the Jays need an additional starter. If that's the case, perhaps converted reliever John Parrish would get a look. Parrish has a 3.32 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings for Triple-A Syracuse. … Catcher-infielder Curtis Thigpen is hitting just .195/.223/.285 in 123 at-bats in Triple-A. Singles hitter Robinzon Diaz has surpassed Thigpen as a catching prospect, though he's just a future backup. … 2007 first-rounder Brett Cecil is being groomed as a starter, but he could be of use to the Jays as a reliever if the team is in contention in the second half. … 2006 first-rounder Travis Snider is rising awfully quickly and could get a September callup. However, fantasy value probably won't come right away.

[Hache Man]

Cliff Lee is Human

Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez faced off Sunday in an interleague matchup pitting the AL's best against the NL's best. Lee came into the game 6-0 with an absurd 0.67 ERA, allowing zero runs in five of his seven starts to qualify as the single biggest surprise in all of baseball. Unfortunately, the Reds got to him for six runs—five earned—and handed Lee his first defeat of the season, more than doubling his ERA to a still-spectacular 1.37.

Volquez also struggled a bit, walking four batters, throwing just 66 of his 111 pitches for strikes, and allowing more than one earned run for the first time all year, but still picked up his seventh win and moved past Lee for the MLB-leading ERA at 1.33. ERAs below 1.50 both pitchers will obviously be coming back down to earth soon enough and selling high is never an especially bad idea, but Lee and Volquez have each pitched well enough that they're far from flukes.

Interestingly, both Lee and Volquez have found tremendous success this season in large part because they've gone from being fly-ball pitchers to ground-ball pitchers. Lee has induced nearly 50 percent ground balls while posting a 46-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 59.1 innings, while Volquez has induced 55 percent ground balls while compiling a 62-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 54.1 innings. Selling high makes sense, but neither pitcher is likely to truly implode.

While Lee allows more runs Sunday afternoon than he had in his first seven starts of the season combined, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Jake Peavy hasn't been quite himself this month, going 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA despite a still-solid 22-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three starts. He explained those struggles Sunday, revealing that he's been pitching through elbow soreness for several weeks. Peavy has been scratched from his scheduled start Monday and will instead spend the day being examined by team doctors. Further details about his injury should emerge Monday night, but for now it certainly doesn't sound good.

"It's not like a normal soreness," Peavy said. "Your arm is sore all the time, but I do feel some of it in the elbow and that's always a cause for concern. We don't know how big, but it's always better to be safe than sorry." At minimum a trip to the disabled list seems likely, but hopefully Peavy didn't cause further damage by pitching through the soreness. Wilfredo Ledezma will face the Cardinals in Peavy's place Monday, at Petco Park.

* Ryan Braun ended April on an 18-game homerless streak, but May has been a much different story for the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. Braun took Josh Beckett deep twice Sunday, giving him 10 homers and a ridiculous .833 slugging percentage in 17 games so far this month. Sunday marked Braun's 156th career game and he's hit .314/.356/.622 with 47 homers, 40 doubles, 132 RBIs, 115 runs, and 16 steals, although the 148/37 K/BB ratio leaves something to be desired.

* Remember when people were concerned about David Ortiz's slow start? Ortiz went 3-for-5 with a double and two homers Sunday, making him 35-for-105 (.333) with nine homers, 33 RBIs, and 21 runs over 26 games dating back to mid-April. Despite beginning the year in a brutal 7-for-63 (.111) slump, he's now tied for the league lead with 10 homers and is on pace to drive in 140 runs. Ortiz's OPS is on the rise, but even at "only" .836 ranks 14th among AL hitters.

* Like Ortiz, Jose Guillen has recovered nicely from a season-opening funk. Just 13-for-80 (.163) with one homer after 21 games, Guillen has gone 26-for-79 (.329) with four homers and 21 RBIs over a 20-game span beginning on April 24. He went 2-for-4 with a homer while driving in four runs Sunday, giving him a 10-game hitting streak during which he's batted an even .500 with 10 extra-base hits and 15 RBIs.

AL Quick Hits: Alex Rodriguez went 5-for-15 with a homer and five walks in a simulated game Sunday and remains on track to come off the shelf when eligible Tuesday … Josh Hamilton left Saturday's game because of exhaustion and was out of the starting lineup Sunday, but felt strong enough to ground out as a pinch-hitter … Chone Figgins (hamstring) looks likely to skip a minor-league rehab assignment and return from the disabled list when eligible Tuesday, but manager Mike Scioscia said Saturday that Howie Kendrick (hamstring) "isn't quite ready" … Thanks to run support, Josh Beckett picked up his fifth victory Sunday despite serving up four homers while allowing six runs … Jason Bartlett collected two hits Friday and four more Saturday, but was scratched from the lineup Sunday with flu-like symptoms … Starting behind the plate Sunday for the eighth time in 11 games, Mike Napoli went 3-for-4 with two homers and five RBIs … With their rotation in flux, the Red Sox are expected to give Tuesday's start to Justin Masterson and then go with Bartolo Colon on Wednesday ... For all Delmon Young's supposed power potential, he still hasn't homered for the Twins.

NL Quick Hits: Roy Oswalt left Saturday's game with a hip injury and said Sunday that his status for this week's start is uncertain … Matt Cain came into Sunday having allowed six homers in nine starts, but served up a career-high four long balls versus the White Sox … Released by the Tigers, Jacque Jones is reportedly close to signing with the Marlins as their new starting center fielder … After beginning the year 18-for-18 swiping bases, Michael Bourn was caught on three straight steal attempts over the weekend … Pitching on three days' rest Sunday, Derek Lowe was rocked by the Angels for seven runs and hasn't turned in a Quality Start since April 12 … Brian Wilson remains 12-for-14 closing games, but his ERA ballooned to 5.09 after allowing four runs in a non-save situation Sunday … Jeff Francis picked up his first win of the season Sunday, holding the Twins to a pair of runs over 6.1 innings at Coors Field … After notching a walk-off single in his big-league debut, Paul Janish made his first start Sunday and went 3-for-3 with a walk.

[Hache Man]

NL Potential Callups

We're looking at potential NL in-season callups this week. I'll go back to the usual notes next week in advance of the June rankings the following Monday.

National League Notes

Arizona - The Diamondbacks have already turned to No. 1 prospect Max Scherzer, though he could return to the minors this week if Doug Davis is activated. Scherzer would likely get another chance next time an injury strikes, so NL-only leaguers will definitely want to hold on to him. … Beyond Scherzer, Arizona doesn't have many players with upside in the high minors. While catcher-infielder Jamie D'Antona might be an upgrade over Robby Hammock, he's just a potential bench player. Trot Nixon is hitting .321/.461/.571 at Tucson, but it's been nearly two years since he last produced in the majors. Singles hitter Alex Romero would be an adequate fifth outfielder. Second baseman Emilio Bonifacio is a possible replacement for Orlando Hudson next year, but he needs to do quite a bit better than his current .286/.331/.438 line. Fortunately, the Diamondbacks shouldn't need any additional offensive help after Chad Tracy returns. … Yusmeiro Petit is seventh or eighth on the SP depth chart, depending on where one puts Edgar Gonzalez. He'd probably have a solid WHIP if needed, but the home run balls would take a toll on his ERA. … Esmerling Vasquez had a big setback last fall when he suffered a torn labrum diving for a ball in the AFL. He's pitching in Triple-A now, but it's doubtful that he'll contribute this year.

Atlanta - It was hoped that Brandon Jones would open the season as Matt Diaz's platoon partner, but he struggled in spring training and isn't impressing while hitting .276/.354/.400 for Triple-A Richmond. If his bat comes alive, Atlanta still might try to take advantage of his 15-20 homer power. However, his chances of making an impact this year have declined. … Brent Lillibridge would gladly trade stats with Jones. He's hitting .183/.244/.248 in 109 AB in Triple-A. The speedster doesn't appear to have a future at shortstop with the Braves, but he's still playing the position in the minors. A shift to center field would make sense. … Scott Thorman is hitting .258/.288/.388, so even if Mark Teixeira landed on the DL, the Braves probably wouldn't call him up. … John Anderson is batting .275/.318/.323. The team made the right call by picking Gregor Blanco over him. … Jordan Schafer was supposed to be a fallback in center field this year, but he's still serving his 50-game hGH ban. … The Braves' top remaining pitching prospect, Tommy Hanson, just made his first Double-A start after posting a 0.90 ERA in seven starts in the Carolina League. He's still a long shot for this year, but an August or September promotion can't be completely ruled out. … Charlie Morton is more advanced and is currently sporting a 1.69 ERA in 48 innings for Richmond. He's probably going to be a long-term reliever, but some short-term success would be a possibility if he's needed in the rotation. atlantabraves.com

Chicago - Rich Hill will be back to join the Cubs' rotation once his command problems are ironed out and should have considerable value once it happens. Sean Marshall might not be so lucky. If the Cubs hadn't moved him to the pen, he could be occupying the rotation spot that Sean Gallagher is currently filling. However, be the time there was an opening, he wasn't stretched out enough to be a realistic option. He's back starting games now, but he's no higher than seventh or eighth on the depth chart. … The Cubs just called up first baseman Micah Hoffpauir to fill in for Daryle Ward, but pinch-hitting is the only role they have for him. Hoffpauir established himself as a top Triple-A slugger last year and was the Cubs' best hitter during spring training, but he's not much of an option in the outfield and there's little opportunity for him there anyway. … Matt Murton obviously needs a trade. The Cubs wouldn't even use him when Alfonso Soriano got hurt. … Eric Patterson could also use one. The Cubs don't see him as a second baseman, and Felix Pie is still the better prospect in center. Patterson has on-base ability plus very good speed, and he'd likely be an asset in fantasy leagues if given an opportunity elsewhere in the second half. … Neal Cotts (2.31 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 21 1/3 IP for Iowa), Kevin Hart (2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 IP since demotion) and Jose Ascanio (2.08 ERA, 23/8 K/BB in 21 2/3 IP) are bullpen possibilities.

Cincinnati - Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey are still awaiting their opportunities. Had Ryan Freel not stepped up, Bruce might have gotten the call already. He's hitting .359/.390/.654 with nine homers and eight steals for Triple-A Louisville. He still figures to be a long-term right fielder, but he's fast enough to handle center field for now and he probably would be an upgrade right away, though I doubt he'll excel right from the start. He does swing at a lot of bad pitches. Of course, once he gets the call, he'll be worth playing in all formats. Even if he doesn't hit for average, the power and speed will give him plenty of value. … Bailey has struggled recently after an outstanding April. Still, he should be two strong outings away from joining the Reds' rotation. If his command holds up, as it has in Triple-A for most of the year, he'll be of use in NL-only leagues. … Paul Janish, who was called up after Jeff Keppinger got hurt, had a nice game in his first start Sunday and should be worth using in NL-only leagues this week. … Outfielder Chris Dickerson will probably be up in September as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. … Double-A Chattanooga's Daryl Thompson has broken through with a 1.63 ERA in nine starts. He's unlikely to be ready to help this year, but he's turned into a legitimate prospect. … Josh Roenicke is a potential setup man and should see time with the Reds as a middle reliever in the second half.

Colorado - If the Rockies had any additional starting pitchers in the minors, they'd call them up. Josh Towers will probably get a look at some point, but he has a 6.06 ERA right now. That's still better than Victor Zambrano's 9.62 mark. Brandon Hynick, the best pitching prospect left at the higher levels following Greg Reynolds' promotion, is at 5.33 in Double-A. The Rockies are going to have to bring in outside help at some point. … The Rockies do have advanced hitting in Triple-A. Ian Stewart is hitting .282/.376/.638 with 12 homers. Seth Smith would be a fine reserve if a spot opened up. He's batting .333/.454/.543. Long-time first base prospect Joe Koshansky is hitting .269/.358/.510. Center fielder Chris Sullivan is at .312/.373/.475. Even Jayson Nix is hitting .271/.379/.500 since being sent down. Still, no one from the group is a particularly good bet in NL-only leagurs. Stewart would hit for power if traded or if Garrett Atkins landed on the DL, but batting average could be a problem. Nix might get one more chance at second base, but he's probably never going to hit in the majors. … 2007 first-round pick Casey Weathers has a 1.62 ERA and a 14/8 K/BB ratio in 16 2/3 innings as a setup man in Double-A. If the team remains in contention, there's a good chance he'll debut in the bullpen in August or September.



Florida - The Marlins have plenty of hitters with quality numbers at Triple-A Albuqerque, but their most promising talents are in Double-A. Right-handers Chris Volstad and Ryan Tucker are about to become rotation options with the super-two "deadline" about to pass. Volstad is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA, 47 H and 40/22 K/BB in 58 IP. Tucker is 2-2 with a 1.03 ERA, 35 H and 47/19 K/BB in 52 1/3 IP. Volstad remains the better prospect of the two despite weaker numbers. That's because he generates so many grounders with his sinker. Tucker is also very talented, but he's not quite as much of a sleeper for this year. Volstad will be worth trying in NL-only leagues as soon as he's called up. … Rick VandenHurk also likely will get another chance to start if he can overcome his arm troubles. … Cameron Maybin is hitting .243/.377/.403 with a 56/29 K/BB ratio in 144 at-bats. He remains a monster talent, but the Marlins clearly had the right idea when they sent him down before the end of the spring. That Jacque Jones is set to arrive further decreases the chances that Maybin will be of use in fantasy leagues this year. … Former Angel Dallas McPherson is the most interesting player at Albuquerque. He's hitting .283/.388/.591 with 12 homers in an environment very favorable for hitters. OBP would be a big problem in the majors -- he's fanned 56 times in 37 minor league games -- but he would hit a homer per week if the Marlins went to him. He'd also play better defense at third than Jorge Cantu.

Houston - The Astros left themselves with little in the way of insurance with their offseason moves. J.R. House is the best of the veteran bats at Triple-A Round Rock. He could serve as a backup at first base and a third catcher if called up to act primarily as a pinch-hitter. Reggie Abercrombie and Nick Gorneault would be uninspired choices as fifth outfielders. In Double-A are middle infielders Tommy Manzella and Drew Sutton. Manzella would serve as a poor man's Adam Everett in the event of a Miguel Tejada injury. Sutton has stepped up with a .326/.429/.517 line, making him look like a legitimate fallback at second base. … Jack Cassel and Josh Muecke are the starters at Round Rock. The 28-year-old Cassel could get a callup this week if Roy Oswalt (hip) can't go Thursday, but his stuff is below average. Muecke, a 26-year-old lefty, is a little more interesting. He has a 3.06 ERA in 53 innings. It's doubtful he'll be a long-term starter, but he'd probably have a better chance of surprising for a month or two than Cassel. … Sinkerballer Brad James has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in Double-A. It's hard to imagine him being an asset this year. … Fernando Nieve was called up last week to act as a reliever. With allergies, asthma and a deviated septum affecting his stamina, he's set to spend the rest of the year in the pen.

Los Angeles - Besides Bruce, Clayton Kershaw is the prospect fantasy leaguers are waiting for. However, the 20-year-old has averaged right around five innings per start in the minors and still has well below average command. He might be as tough to hit as any pitcher in the league once his chance comes, but his debut could look a lot like Chad Billingsley's in 2006 (3.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 58 walks in 90 IP). … Andy LaRoche is the Dodgers' best third baseman and is still likely to get a chance to prove it at some point. He's hitting .319/.515/.596 with a 5/20 K/BB ratio in 47 AB in Triple-A. … Jonathan Meloan has been tried as a starter at Las Vegas with positive results (3.73 ERA, 40/23 K/BB ratio in 41 IP). However, he still projects as a major league setup man. … Eric Stults is a capable lefty swingman, but there's been no mention of going to him despite the Dodgers' fifth-starter woes. … James McDonald, the Dodgers' No. 2 SP prospect, has a 4.26 ERA and a 45/11 K/BB in 44 1/3 IP in Double-A. He's behind Kershaw on the depth chart at this time. … Jason Repko remains a legitimate reserve outfielder if the Dodgers ever find they need one of those.

Milwaukee - When the Brewers weighed calling up someone to help in the DH role over the weekend, they looked at Mat Gamel over Matt LaPorta. Both have 1000+ OPSs in Double-A, but Gamel has been the better of the two. He's hitting .372/.432/.657. Unfortunately, he's such a butcher at third base that he probably wouldn't get a look there no matter how badly Bill Hall slumps. … LaPorta would probably join Gamel on the roster in September if the Brewers are in contention. However, neither top prospect figures to have fantasy value this year. … At .368/.449/.706, Russell Branyan has dominated PCL pitching for Nashville. Still, there's been little demand for services for years and that may not change anytime soon. … The Brewers have three struggling starters, but they lack any great choices to replace them. Jeff Weaver has a 6.35 ERA in his four starts since joining Nashville. Soft-tosser Mark DiFelice was just called up as a middle reliever. He'll fool some hitters, but he's probably not going to work out as a starter. Lefty Chris Narveson might be the best hope among Nashville's starters, but he's nothing more than a fringe guy. For that reason, the Brewers could go down to Double-A to get Steve Hammond. The lefty has bounced back from a poor 2007 to strike out 58 in 51 2/3 innings this season. He's probably not ready yet, but he does qualify as a deep sleeper. … Following an awful start, Luis Pena has a 0.90 ERA in his last 10 appearances for Nashville. He has a closer-type fastball, and while the rest of his game doesn't measure up, he still could help the Brewers as a short reliever.

New York - The Mets would prefer to simply get Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez back and not have to go back to the minors for more pitching help, but Tony Armas Jr. is performing very well of late and could be a part of some team's rotation beginning next month. He has a 2.63 ERA and a 41/12 K/BB ratio in 54 2/3 innings for Triple-A New Orleans. Still, it'd be a reach to believe that he'll have any fantasy value. … Left-hander Jon Niese is likely a year away. He has a 4.19 ERA in Double-A. … It's unlikely that the Mets will call up any hitters with the intention of giving them significant roles. They do have Val Pascucci knocking the stuffing out of the ball in Triple-A (.297, seven homers in 64 at-bats), but putting up overwhelming minor league numbers hasn't done Pascucci any good in the past. In Double-A are first basemen Mike Carp (.328/.378/.534) and Nick Evans (.293/.353/.547). Both are interesting -- Carp especially -- but neither would be an ideal replacement for Carlos Delgado in the middle of a pennant race. … No. 1 prospect Fernando Martinez was hitting .280/.314/.408 in Double-A before going down last week with a hamstring injury. newyorkmets.com

Philadelphia - Not much to see here. The Phillies don't have any top prospects at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Lefty J.A. Happ is the best of the bunch. He has a 3.16 ERA and a 61/25 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 IP, but the Phillies have still soured on him somewhat. As a flyball pitcher with poor command, he'd be a poor bet at Citizens Bank Park. … Both J.D. Durbin and Travis Blackley have gotten lit up in Triple-A, and Blackley is currently on the DL with a groin strain. … The Phillies are a little better off in Double-A. Right-handers Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo are fine pitching prospects. Carrasco hasn't moved as quickly as hoped, but that's because expectations were too high. He has a 3.94 ERA and a 50/20 K/BB ratio in 48 IP at the moment. Bastardo moved up from Single-A Clearwater earlier this month. Between the two levels, he has a 1.86 ERA and a 62/15 K/BB ratio in 48 1/3 IP. He's a definite candidate to jump to the majors in the second half, though he's not such a good bet that NL-only leaguers should stash him away just yet. … Shortstop Jason Donald would make more sense than second baseman Brad Harman as a callup if the Phillies ever lose another outfielder. He's hitting .291/.405/.400 in Double-A, and he projects as either a decent starter at second of a very good utilityman. … Lefties Josh Outman and Fabio Castro recently moved to the pen in Double-A. The Phillies will likely give one of the two an opportunity before long.



Pittsburgh - The Pirates figure to move either Jason Bay or Xavier Nady, if not both, at the deadline to make room for someone from the group of Andrew McCutchen, Steve Pearce and Nyjer Morgan. Pearce appeared to be first in line, but the slugger is hitting just .253/.303/.401 for Triple-A Indianapolis. With a .285/.382/.455 line, McCutchen has displayed the greater power of the two. If the Pirates traded both veterans, the could go to McCutchen in center, with Nate McLouth moving to left, and Pearce in right. I still think Pearce has the better chance of amassing fantasy value this year, but the gap has closed. … Third baseman Neil Walker hasn't capitalized on Jose Bautista's struggles. He's hitting .205/.252/.411 and is 0-for-5 stealing bases. Still, if he does heat up, he could finish the season as a starter for the Pirates. … Veteran outfielder Kevin Thompson should have had the spot that went to Morgan at the start of the year. However, he remains buried following the acquisition of Jason Michaels. … The Pirates are without any decent rotation alternatives. For that reason, John Van Benschoten will probably get one more chance this season. Cuban defector Yosman Herrera is also a possibility. He has a 2.57 ERA in eight starts in Double-A, but his 26/15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings is unimpressive. The Pirates will keep a close eye on the waiver wire in the hunt for more options.

St. Louis - Colby Rasmus is hitting just .182 in 165 at-bats at Triple-A Memphis, leaving him in no position to capitalize on Rick Ankiel's injury. As well as the Cardinals' other outfielders are playing, they probably wouldn't have wanted to call him up anyway. Joe Mather, who is hitting .304/.413/.630, will be called up if Ankiel lands on the DL. The 25-year-old doesn't contribute with the glove and he entered the season with a lifetime .254 average, so even though he has major league power, he's a long shot to have a career. Still, it's worth trying him while he's hot. As for Rasmus, it's too early now to count him out for the second half. He's typically been a slow starter anyway. He remains one of the game's top five prospects. … David Freese and veteran Brian Barden are options at third base for St. Louis if Troy Glaus goes down. Barden has the edge now, but Freese, who was picked up from the Padres for Jim Edmonds, is well worth following. He skipped Double-A, so his .269/.319/.431 line at Memphis isn't too disappointing. … The Cardinals might not need any minor league starters with Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter potentially on the way back, but Jaime Garcia is a sleeper. He has a 0.69 ERA in two starts since being promoted to Triple-A. I'd take my chances with him over Mulder for the rest of the season. … Chris Perez got the nod over fellow relievers Jason Motte and Mark Worrell as the replacement for Jason Isringhausen. All three were deserving, but Perez has the most upside of the group. He's extremely difficult to hit, so if he throws strikes, the Cards will be tempted to try him as a closer at some point. He'd be nice to have stashed away.

San Diego - Chase Headley played well enough this spring to make the Padres, but after being sent down to Triple-A Portland, he hit just .242/.317/.396 in April. Fortunately, he's up to .352/.410/.634 so far this month. With Scott Hairston, Paul McAnulty and Justin Huber all slumping, it'd be no surprise to see him soon installed as the Padres' left fielder. He should be owned in all NL-only leagues in which he's available to be picked up. … The Padres could also eventually trade Tadahito Iguchi and turn to Matt Antonelli at second base. However, since Antonelli is hitting just .195/.329/.338 in Triple-A, they'll be in no hurry to make that switch. … Wade LeBlanc, supposedly a sleeper candidate to become the Padres' fifth starter this spring, has a 9.35 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Portland. But he was never likely to experience success in the majors this year. The Padres will probably go back to guys like Justin Germano and Wilfredo Ledezma when they need extra starters. Clay Hensley, if he can overcome his shoulder troubles, would be another possibility. Right-hander Will Inman could enter the mix by the end of the year, but it'd be for the best if he got to spend the full season in the minors. He has a 2.45 ERA and a 50/19 K/BB ratio in 47 2/3 IP for Double-A San Antonio.

San Francisco - The Giants are short of elite prospects, but they have plenty of interchangeable parts to mix in, something they've already done. The most interesting player at Triple-A Fresno is outfielder Nate Schierholtz, who is currently hitting .304/.352/.511 in 135 AB. He'll be an option if John Bowker goes into a deep slump or if Randy Winn gets traded. As is, the outfield is too crowded to make him worth calling up. However, he'll likely have fantasy value in the second half. … Veteran Justin Leone could get the call once the Giants decide there aren't enough at-bats available for one of Eugenio Velez or Manny Burriss. He has better power than the team's current corner options, and he can play second base once in a while. He'd be interesting if his opportunity comes. … With a .333 average, seven doubles and a homer in 42 at-bats, Travis Denker has been hot since moving up to Triple-A. He's no legitimate second baseman, but he's young enough that the Giants might want to give him a long look either there or at third. If he has a long-term future in the majors, it's as a bench player. … Matt Palmer and Nick Pereira will be rotation possibilities if more injuries strike, but neither is very interesting. Top pitching prospect Henry Sosa has yet to pitch this season after knee surgery. He's due back soon, but the late start makes it unlikely that he'll be een in the majors before September.

Washington - Jesus Flores was about all the Nationals had for position prospects in Triple-A. First baseman Larry Broadway was pretty much given up on after last year, and he's done nothing to redeem himself by hitting .236/.308/.386 at Columbus. The Nats do have outfielders Alex Escobar (.333/.363/.520 in 75 AB) and Ryan Langerhans (.314/.424/.450 in 140 AB) producing in the International League, but there's no need there. ... If a starting spot eventually opens up in the outfield, it could go to Justin Maxwell, who is hitting .248/.388/.489 in Double-A. He's probably never going to hit for average in the majors, but his power, speed and defense could make him a worthwhile regular anyway. … Tyler Clippard, Collin Balester and Garrett Mock are all going to be candidates for rotation spots later on. Clippard has the worst ERA of the group in Triple-A (4.79), but also the best strikeout rate and batting-average against. I still like him as a sleeper. Balester, the top long-term property, has a 3.79 ERA after eight starts. He'll be more interesting on draft day next year. Mock is too hittable to be more than a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. … 21-year-old Jordan Zimmerman may not be a factor this year, but he could be considered the Nats' No. 1 right-handed prospect over Balester. He has a 2.04 ERA between Single-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg.

[Hache Man]

Lester No-Hits Royals

Jon Lester was in danger of losing his spot in the Red Sox's rotation after beginning the season with a 5.40 ERA and ugly 16-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio through six starts, but saved his job by posting a 2.13 ERA over his next four outings and made history Monday night at Fenway Park. Facing the AL's worst lineup, Lester threw the 18th no-hitter in Red Sox history, allowing just two walks while racking up nine strikeouts in a 7-0 victory over the Royals.

Between beating cancer, winning the World Series-clinching Game 4 against the Rockies last October, and no-hitting the Royals, it's been quite a run for Lester. He allowed just one near-hit, which center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury turned into an out with an outstanding diving grab, and was permitted to begin the ninth inning despite already being at 113 pitches. He walked the leadoff man, but recovered to finish off the no-hitter while throwing a total of 130 pitches.

That's an alarming total for any 24-year-old and particularly one who previously had never thrown even 115 pitches and had gone over the 100-pitch mark in just three of his 21 starts dating back to last season. The heavy workload means that Lester will be worth monitoring over his next few outings, but his 26-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five starts is encouraging given his sub par 126-to-93 mark prior to that stretch. If Lester can consistently throw strikes, he'll be special.

While Lester and Clay Buchholz make the Red Sox the first team to account for MLB's past two no-hitters since Nolan Ryan threw back-to-back no-hitters himself for the Angels in the mid-70s, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* In an effort to keep him in the lineup after being healthy enough to play in just 80 of the team's 208 games dating back to last season, the Rangers announced Sunday that Hank Blalock will move to first base once he returns from the disabled list. Keeping him healthy and in the lineup is obviously crucial, but moving across the diamond will cause Blalock to lose a sizable chunk of his value both offensively and defensively.

Compared to the MLB average at each position last season, a .799 career OPS puts Blalock five percent above average at third base (.758) and almost exactly average at first base (.797). That may not seem like an especially big deal, but the position shift will essentially cause Blalock to lose five percent of his offensive value immediately (assuming that the new position doesn't lead to increased production, of course).

For fantasy purposes it's a non-issue for now because Blalock is third-base eligible, but with only 22 starts at the position he's in danger of losing eligibility there next year in many leagues. If that happens his .274/.337/.462 career line with 22 homers and 83 RBIs per 600 plate appearances become considerably less impressive given the many solid bats available at first base. Another result of the decision is Ramon Vazquez and German Duran continuing to platoon at third base.

* One of the hallmarks of a poorly run organization is abandoning a plan because it fails to work immediately and the Mariners sending Jeff Clement back to the minors Monday falls under that heading. There's no doubt that Clement struggled since being called up last month and installed as the team's regular designated hitter versus right-handers, but normally the idea is to actually give 24-year-old prospects an extended chance after handing them a starting job midseason.

Instead, Clement heads back to Triple-A after all of 56 trips to the plate spread over three weeks in Seattle. With a .281/.374/.469 hitting line in 215 games at Triple-A he has little left to prove in the minors and even his ugly .536 OPS in three weeks with the Mariners is comparable to the .558 mark posted by Jose Vidro this year, yet he'll resume starting at DH. Apparently Clement's only chance to stick was to thrive immediately, which wasn't really much of a plan at all.

* John Smoltz had hoped to return from the disabled list as soon as this week, but those plans have been put on hold after he experienced a setback during a weekend bullpen session. He took two weeks off after receiving a cortisone shot, yet still had discomfort after throwing Saturday and said Sunday that he may now be out "a lot longer" than initially expected. Smoltz returning by the end of the month seems highly unlikely, but still hasn't been officially ruled out yet. atlantabraves.com

AL Quick Hits: With Rafael Betancourt and Masa Kobayashi struggling, Joe Borowski (triceps) may return from the disabled list this week following just one or two rehab outings … Alex Rodriguez (quadriceps) went 2-for-6 in an extended spring training game Monday and remains on track to come off the shelf Tuesday … Eric Chavez (back) went 2-for-4 with a homer in a minor-league rehab game Sunday at Triple-A, but has yet to play third base … Jake Westbrook (ribs) made his first rehab start Sunday at Single-A, allowing one run over 3.1 innings … With Donnie Murphy (elbow) heading to the DL and Mark Ellis (hamstring) hobbled, Gregorio Petit got another start at second base Monday … Thanks to Carlos Gomez's wrist injury, Michael Cuddyer made his first and perhaps last career start in center field Monday … Carlos Triunfel has been suspended indefinitely by the Mariners, with the 18-year-old being removed from the roster at Single-A for an undisclosed reason … Matt Wieters went 3-for-5 with two homers Sunday and the former first-round pick is hitting .328/.419/.618 with 11 homers through 40 games at Single-A.

NL Quick Hits: Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) made his second minor-league rehab start Sunday at Triple-A, allowing two runs over five innings, and could be close to bumping Max Scherzer from the rotation … Manager Joe Torre indicated Sunday that Rafael Furcal (back) could return from the disabled list as soon as Friday, but added that Nomar Garciaparra's strained calf "just won't go away" … As expected, the Marlins signed Jacque Jones to a minor-league contract Monday and he'll head to extended spring training after not playing since May 4 … Randy Johnson held the Tigers scoreless for seven innings Sunday, combining with two relievers on a shutout while improving to 4-1 with a 4.42 ERA … According to manager Manny Acta, Shawn Hill may have his scheduled start Wednesday skipped because of elbow soreness … Lance Berkman went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts Monday, snapping a 17-game hitting streak and pushing his average down to .389 … Another setback in his recovery from shoulder surgery means Mark Mulder will be shut down for 10-14 days … Andruw Jones was scratched from Monday's lineup with a sore knee. atlantabraves.com

[Hache Man]

Padres Lose Peavy to DL

On this week's NBCSports.com "Fantasy Fix" show Gregg Rosenthal chats with me about the hot starts from Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Josh Hamilton, Edinson Volquez, and Cliff Lee, so please check that out. Once you're done reading these notes from around baseball, of course …

* Jake Peavy admitted Monday that he's been pitching through elbow soreness for several weeks and was placed on the disabled list Tuesday, but manager Bud Black indicated that the Padres don't expect him to miss significant time. "The ligament looks fine, so that's good," Black said. "Hopefully in two weeks the edema of the joint will subside and the swelling will subside, and he'll be able to resume throwing."

For now at least there's no need for Peavy owners to panic, but with a 17-30 record putting them 9.5 games out of a playoff spot the Padres would be smart to play it very safe with his recovery. It's possible that they'll hold Peavy out for longer than the minimum 15 days even if he's healthy enough to resume pitching by then, likely giving Wilfredo Ledezma first crack at replacing him in the rotation. Ledezma started in Peavy's place Monday and could have some NL-only value.

* Each season Daniel Cabrera puts together a good stretch that has his fantasy owners thinking that he's finally going to put everything together to become a consistently dominant starter. And then each season he ends up with 100 walks and a 5.00 ERA. With that disclaimer out of the way, it should be noted that after holding the Yankees to two runs over seven innings Tuesday he's now turned in eight straight Quality Starts.

Best of all, he's walked just 15 batters over 57.1 innings during that stretch, including zero walks in back-to-back starts and a total of three free passes in his last four outings. Along with improved control Cabrera has seen his strikeout rate decline significantly for the second straight year while his average fastball velocity loses about two miles per hour, but he's still clocking in at 93 MPH while throwing his heater about 20 percent more often and is inducing far more ground balls.

Trying to throw a 95-MPH fastball by everyone produced the occasional overpowering outing, but for the most part just made Cabrera one of baseball's biggest enigmas. His current strong stretch may simply prove to be another tease, but giving up some velocity to better control his fastball is looking like an excellent plan right now and continuing to get grounders on 60 percent of his balls in play would make up for the lack of missed bats. In other words, maybe this is the year. Maybe.

* Andruw Jones was scratched from Monday's lineup with a sore right knee and an MRI revealed torn cartilage, meaning that he could be headed for arthroscopic surgery. "I'm going to give it two days, and if it doesn't get better we'll go ahead and scope it," Jones said. "Hopefully I can just get treatment on it and then probably get it done during the offseason." Jones playing through a knee injury that will eventually require surgery likely doesn't sound very appealing to the Dodgers. atlantabraves.com

On the other hand, it might be interesting to see how much worse a guy hitting .167/.275/.273 can really get. Also "interesting" is Jones revealing Tuesday that he has a "golf-ball sized" wart behind his knee, which may also require surgery. Giving manager Joe Torre more excuse to put Juan Pierre into the lineup every day is likely about as appealing to Dodgers fans as Jones' Titleist-style wart, but the good news is that it'll be tough to avoid playing Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp.

* Remember last month when general manager J.P. Ricciardi explained his decision to cut Frank Thomas by saying that the Blue Jays couldn't afford to wait around for his bat to heat up? My take at the time pointed out that the Blue Jays didn't have many great options to replace him and Thomas recovered from horrible starts to put together very good overall numbers in both 2006 and 2007. Much to Ricciardi's chagrin it looks like he's doing the same thing again this year.

Thomas went 3-for-4 with a pair of homers Monday and then went deep again Tuesday, making him 22-for-75 (.293) with three homers, seven total extra-base hits, 13 walks, and 14 RBIs in 23 games since returning to Oakland. That works out to a .293/.400/.480 hitting line that's very close to the .277/.377/.480 that Thomas hit for the Blue Jays last season, and predictably makes Ricciardi cutting him loose based on less than a month's worth of struggles look plenty foolish.

AL Quick Hits: Derek Jeter left Tuesday's game after being hit on the hand by a Daniel Cabrera pitch, but X-rays were negative and he's considered day-to-day … Justin Verlander showed signs of life Tuesday, holding the Mariners to one run over six innings while racking up a season-high seven strikeouts … With Matt Tolbert undergoing thumb surgery and manager Ron Gardenhire unhappy with Brendan Harris' defense, speedster Alexi Casilla figures to see extended action at second base … Alex Rodriguez returned from the disabled list Tuesday after missing three weeks and homered … C.C. Sabathia was a tough-luck loser Tuesday despite tossing seven innings of two-run ball versus the White Sox … Erick Aybar exited Tuesday's game after dislocating his right pinkie finger, with Maicer Izturis replacing him at shortstop … Mike Mussina was rocked for seven runs while recording just two outs Tuesday, but the good news is that only one run was earned thanks to a Jeter error … Carlos Silva went 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA through six starts, but after allowing seven runs in Tuesday's loss he's now 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA since.

NL Quick Hits: Mike Piazza announced his retirement Tuesday, ending his Hall of Fame career at .308/.377/.545 with 427 homers and a dozen All-Star appearances in 16 seasons … Mopping up in a seven-run game Tuesday, Eric Gagne was yanked after serving up a two-run homer and complained of shoulder soreness afterward … Doug Davis (thyroid cancer) is scheduled to come off the disabled list to start Friday versus the Braves, likely pushing Max Scherzer back to the bullpen … Rich Hill has been placed on DL at Triple-A with back spasms, further delaying his return to the Cubs' rotation … Mike Cameron went 3-for-4 with a homer Tuesday, giving him five long balls and 14 RBIs in 18 games since returning from suspension … Less than one week after saying that he'd be "shocked" if he's not "back by the All-Star break" Mark Mulder (shoulder) was scratched from his scheduled minor-league rehab start Tuesday at Triple-A and will be shut down for 10-14 days … Dallas McPherson hit three homers Monday at Triple-A, giving him 15 long balls and a 1.055 OPS on the year.

[Hache Man]

Planning for the long haul
One of the frequently cited drawbacks of playing fantasy baseball is that the season is so long, it's difficult to actively manage a team (or more than one) effectively for six months.

Generally, the owners who win their leagues aren't the ones who had the best draft (though a good draft doesn't hurt), but the ones who did the best job of picking up players and making trades during the season.

So while it may seem like a long time until September, the upkeep of a fantasy baseball team — just like spring cleaning around the house — isn't as daunting if it can be broken down into smaller segments.

Thankfully, the fantasy baseball season usually follows a similar path every year. There's an assessment stage, a tweaking stage, a big decision stage and an auto-pilot stage.

Assessment

The first stage lasts for about the first six weeks of the season when fantasy owners take stock of their teams and try not to overreact to the early developments. It's also when some major bargains routinely appear on the free-agent wire.

I'm in a 12-team KFFL.com experts mixed league with 28-man rosters. With nearly two months in the books, it's interesting to look back at some of the players who went undrafted — after 336 players were taken.

Among the pitchers: Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Edinson Volquez, Micah Owings, Nick Blackburn, Todd Wellemeyer, Dana Eveland, Gavin Floyd and Aaron Cook.

Among the hitters: Carlos Quentin, Joey Votto, David Murphy, Xavier Nady, Jose Lopez, Erick Aybar and Jayson Werth.

Of course, the owners who picked up these players missed out on some of their impressive early-season stats, but will still be rewarded if the waiver-wire gems continue to produce anywhere close to their present level over the course of the season.

Even ignoring the first few weeks of the season, Lee has been the No. 6 overall player in the league over the past month, while Quentin is No. 7 and Volquez is No. 9.

Those kinds of players can make a tremendous difference in a league's final standings. The encouraging thing is … there's still plenty of time left this season to find another one.

Tweaking time

The second stage of the fantasy season is one we're entering right about now. It's when owners are forced to take a realistic look at their teams and see them for what they are — a serious title contender, a team bound to improve, a team in need of retooling or a team that's already looking toward next season.

Hopefully, there aren't too many teams out there in the last category. But all too often, owners are quick to pull the plug on a season because of a couple bad breaks.

While battling injuries, Alex Rodriguez has been a shell of the team-carrying hero he was last season. But that doesn't mean he can't return to form once he returns from the disabled list.

Several big-time pitchers have recently returned — or will soon return — from the disabled list. With anywhere up to 20 starts possible over the rest of the season, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt, Francisco Liriano, Pedro Martinez and Chris Carpenter could be difference-makers.

Meanwhile, a little reshuffling can be the best medicine for an ailing fantasy team.

The type of league makes a big difference in how much tweaking can and should be done. For instance, in redraft leagues there's no harm in making wholesale changes since you don't have to worry about what your team will look like next season.

In keeper leagues, look for players with significant upside. For example, Houston's J.R. Towles has struggled all season but he's a solid young catcher who usually makes contact, yet hasn't seen a lot of those balls fall in for hits. (His hit rate on balls in play is one of the lowest in the majors.)

Similarly, Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto had an outstanding first start, but since then he's had trouble just about every time out. In his last outing against the Indians, he tossed five no-hit innings, then gave up three home runs in a span of four batters and didn't figure in the decision. Cueto's season ERA of 5.75 is unremarkable, but his talent could start blossoming at any time.

If you can stash players like Towles and Cueto on your bench for now, it can pay off handsomely down the road.

In Roto leagues, it's also a good time to reassess your team's strategy in certain categories. Did you punt saves on draft day? Not a bad idea, considering how much turmoil has taken place among closers so far this season. The acquisition of a reliable closer now could pay off in a gain of several standings points fairly quickly.

In both the KFFL mixed league and the AL League of Alternative Baseball Reality, I made deals recently to get Trevor Hoffman and Huston Street because there was an opportunity to gain ground in saves.

Although saves are probably the easiest category to target and the easiest commodity to acquire, don't discount an opportunity to improve in other areas as well.

The road ahead

The tweaking stage can last for several months before the next major point in the fantasy season arrives — the big decision. It's when an owner must determine if winning a championship is realistically possible.

Especially in keeper leagues, the point of no return coincides with the trade deadline. A title contender may be able to give up future returns for one or two missing pieces, while a team that's out of the running will be looking to rebuild for next year.

Hopefully, you haven't made the big decision yet in your league. There's still plenty of time left to build a championship-caliber roster. Just keep tweaking.

[Hache Man]

Joba The Starter
Joba Chamberlain entered an 8-0 game Wednesday and worked two innings for just the second time this season, with manager Joe Girardi explaining why afterward by saying that the Yankees are now prepping him for a shift to the rotation. Coming into the season most speculation had the Yankees aiming to have Chamberlain in the rotation after the All-Star break, but Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy struggling and the team fighting just to stay above .500 likely hurried those plans.

Chamberlain has posted a 1.42 ERA and 59-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .178 batting average over 44.1 relief innings, but being a setup man limited his fantasy value. It'll be nearly impossible for Chamberlain to approach that level of dominance as a starter, but he can significantly boost his value anyway. He hasn't started a game since last July, but has an impressive track record as a starter in both college and the minors.

He had a 2.45 ERA and 135-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio between three levels of the minors prior to being called up and has an arsenal of pitches that makes him well suited to start after working almost exclusively with his fastball and slider as a reliever. Assuming that it takes Chamberlain a couple weeks to build up arm strength, he's very capable of winning double-digit games with an ERA in the mid-3.00s and 125-150 strikeouts going forward while making 18-20 starts.

While Hank Steinbrenner finally gets his wish, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Dontrelle Willis returned from the disabled list Wednesday, but the Tigers opted against sticking him back into the rotation after he posted a 4.41 ERA and 11-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three minor-league rehab starts. Armando Galarraga has pitched well filling in for Willis, but the Tigers' other starters have ERAs of 6.65, 6.08, 5.61, and 4.76 overall, so it's somewhat telling that Willis will be working out of the bullpen for now.

Willis figures to resume starting again soon enough, but he was a poor fantasy bet coming into the season and remains a poor bet now. Even at just 26 years old he now longer has the stuff to overpower hitters and continues to struggle with command. Some low-pressure appearances as a reliever will give him a chance to start throwing strikes again, but he hasn't walked fewer than 3.3 batters per nine innings since 2005 and doesn't figure to start now.

* Albert Pujols went 1-for-5 with a single in a modest night at the plate Wednesday, but knocked both members of the Padres' battery out of the game. In the third inning Pujols smacked a line drive back up the middle that nailed Chris Young on the bridge of his nose, leaving the 6-foot-10 starter a bloody mess and fortunate that he's not a few inches shorter (or unlucky that he's not a foot shorter). Later that inning Pujols slid into Josh Bard on a clean play at the plate, leaving the catcher with an ankle injury.

As ugly as Young taking Pujols' liner off his face looked, Bard's injury may actually prove more significant. Young never lost consciousness, walked off the field largely under his own power, and didn't appear to be in a huge amount of pain, although the latter is easy to say from the comfort of my couch. He's been diagnosed with a fractured nose and was taken to the hospital to be examined for a concussion, among other things, but for now appears to have averted disaster.

* Called up from Triple-A, Bartolo Colon made his Red Sox debut Wednesday, giving up two runs over five innings against the Royals. Colon allowed six singles, issued two walks, and struck out four, working with a fastball that frequently clocked in at 93-94 miles per hour. He's certainly not a safe option in mixed leagues yet, but should definitely be owned in AL-only leagues and makes for a solid play next week with starts against the Mariners and Orioles.

* After sharing the job with Maicer Izturis early in the season, Aybar started 39 straight games at shortstop despite batting just .273/.287/.374 with a horrible 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that stretch. His streak came to an end Wednesday, as the Angels placed Aybar on the disabled list with a dislocated right pinkie finger suffered the previous night. Chone Figgins came off the DL to fill Aybar's spot on the roster, which means that Izturis is free to shift back to shortstop again.

AL Quick Hits: Jorge Posada tested his injured shoulder by throwing from 75-90 feet Tuesday, with manager Joe Girardi saying afterward that he could begin a minor-league rehab assignment next week … After complaining publicly about Kenji Johjima's pitch-calling, Jarrod Washburn got Jamie Burke as his catcher Wednesday and allowed nine runs to push his ERA to 6.99 … Alex Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with a homer and two doubles Wednesday, but would've had a second long ball if not for a blown call … Nick Blackburn had held the Rangers scoreless for five frames Wednesday before being rocked from seven runs in the sixth inning, but thanks to Alexi Casilla's error only one run was earned … Manager Eric Wedge said Tuesday that Joe Borowski (triceps) could come off the DL and resume closing by the end of the week … Daric Barton batted seventh Wednesday and went 0-for-3, leaving him 7-for-55 (.127) this month … Despite a strained right calf, Chien-Ming Wang is expected to make his scheduled start Saturday … David Eckstein (hip) suffered a setback while rehabbing and won't be activated from the DL when eligible Thursday.

NL Quick Hits: Rick Ankiel (shoulder) was out of the lineup Wednesday for the fifth straight game, but was healthy enough to deliver a pinch-hit homer … Chipper Jones left Wednesday's game with a bruised shin, but as usual figures to be day-to-day … General manager Jim Bowden said Wednesday that he's "concerned" about Austin Kearns' sore elbow and the Nationals have sent him for a second opinion … Ubaldo Jimenez shut out the Giants for seven innings Wednesday, but got stuck with a no-decision when Brian Fuentes blew his third save … Ben Sheets scattered 11 hits in a complete-game win Wednesday, with Xavier Nady's solo homer serving as the only damage … Moises Alou is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his strained left calf, which he said Wednesday "has been bothering me for three or four days" … After going 0-for-4 on Wednesday, Jeff Kent is just 8-for-55 (.145) this month … According to the New York Daily News, "the buzz among scouts is that the Mets are shopping Aaron Heilman" … Dizziness knocked Jerry Hairston from Wednesday's game, with Paul Janish likely to start at shortstop Thursday.