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| | #141 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The quest for consistency Few things are as valuable in head-to-head fantasy leagues as filling your roster with players who can produce a solid baseline of stats, week after week. This consistency is far more important than in traditional rotisserie-style leagues where poor weeks can often be absorbed by the year-long numbers. In identifying players who are consistent, several typical measures come to mind, such as good plate discipline and on-base percentage. If a player has good strike zone judgment, consistently putting the ball into play, he's also more likely to contribute to that solid weekly baseline. Probably the most accurate leading indicator of a successful head-to-head player is on-base average plus slugging (OPS). The ability to get on base and drive the ball increases the control the hitter has on the outcome of each at bat. Hitters with an OPS of at least .850 tend to be the most consistent, week in and week out. The other part of consistency is risk mitigation of poor performance. The idea is to avoid negative weekly output or negative weekly scoring. It can be more valuable to your team to have a player produce consistent, but league-average stats than one who has wide swings of weekly scoring. An inconsistent player can carry your team for a week but will end up hurting your team more times than not. The incorporation of risk has the effect of reducing the value of some stats that are traditionally viewed as purely positive skills. For instance, in most leagues, stolen bases have equal value to home runs and batting average. In most head-to-head points formats, steals will also carry negative points when a runner is caught stealing. As such, it is always best to first seek the players who can produce consistently and then view steals as a bonus to their value. Now that we are nearly two months into the season, we are able to better identify trends in player consistency. Here are two groups of players that exemplify either end of the consistency spectrum. Most consistent OF Josh Hamilton, Rangers: Hamilton has been the most consistent offensive producer in the American League thus far. His league-leading 49 RBI have been spread evenly over the seven weeks. He has knocked in at least five runs per week. He hit a home run in six of seven weeks, with three multi-homer weeks. The 26-year old is worthy of being labeled an elite player in mixed leagues. OF Carlos Quentin, White Sox: Quentin is putting together quite a breakout season. His shoulder surgery last season has showed no signs of slowing him down as he has performed consistently in four categories every week. He has homered in all but one week, and has five weeks with a .300 batting average and more than four RBI. Quentin has also had one stolen base in each of the past four weeks. His production has been evenly spread across the first two months of the season. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Pujols has been the model of consistency year-to-year. Early season stories about his elbow pain have not slowed him as he continues to have another 1.000-plus OPS season. Through seven weeks, he has hit more than .300 during four weeks, and has driven in at least four RBI while hitting a home run in at least five of the seven weeks. He has produced better than a .900 OPS every week this season with 41 walks and only 16 strikeouts. C Geovany Soto, Cubs: Soto came into the season with high expectations and has delivered. After a slow first week, he has strung together six consecutive weeks of .900-plus OPS. The 25-year old rookie slugger has spread his eight home runs over that time, with two of those weeks having multiple homers. He has also posted at least a .300 average and four RBI in five out of the seven weeks this season. Soto has racked up 34 strikeouts, but has he been able to draw 24 walks to partially cancel out the negatives. Least consistent C Kenji Johjima, Mariners: Johjima's playing time has decreased partially because of his lack of consistency. He didn't hit a home run until week seven and only has two weeks where he posted a .300-plus batting average. His poor on-base percentage has been fueled by a lack of plate patience. While he only has struck out eight times all year, he has only six walks. SS Edgar Renteria, Tigers: Many Tigers have been off to bad starts, but none more so than Renteria. His .332 batting average in 2007 seems to be a distant memory. It took three weeks for him to hit a home run and produce a weekly batting average above .300. Only weeks three and four have been bright spots, when he has posted a .300-plus batting average. The past three weeks have seen him dip down to his worst levels of the season. During weeks five, six and seven, he is hitting less than .200 with no home runs and three total RBI. SS Jose Reyes, Mets: Reyes is off to a slow start and has not been able to put together back-to-back productive weeks. He has as many weeks hitting below a .300 batting average as he does above. In weeks two, four and six, he posted a .136 or lower average. In weeks three, five, and seven, he batted more than .333. His power has been limited to one week in which he hit two home runs. The only part of Reyes' game that has been consistent is his ability to steal bases. He has swiped at least two bases a week in five weeks. newyorkmets.com OF Alex Rios, Blue Jays: Rios has not been able to piece together a full season of consistency over the past two years. In each of 2006 and 2007, he has gotten off to a hot start and cooled in the second half. So far this year, he has remained cool with a meager .260 batting average, .328 on-base and .718 OPS stat line. In looking at his weekly production, he has only hit home runs in two weeks, and had a .300-plus average in three weekly scoring periods. |
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| | #142 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Miller's Time As a huge fan of ground-ball pitchers who miss bats Andrew Miller is right up my alley, so it's nice to see him turning things around this month after a brutal April. Traded to the Marlins this winter as part of the big Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis deal, Miller posted an ugly 9.12 ERA and 18-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25.2 innings spread over six April outings. Florida showed some patience with the 23-year-old southpaw and he's been excellent in May. After holding Arizona scoreless for seven innings Thursday while racking up nine strikeouts, Miller is now 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA and 26-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio this month. He's always worked with overpowering raw stuff that produces lots of strikeouts and ground balls, but consistently throwing strikes used to be a problem. However, Miller hasn't walked more than three batters in a start since April 12 and has a solid 44-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50.2 innings overall. As a 6-foot-6 lefty with a heavy low-90s fastball and high-70s slider combination, Miller is perhaps one of the most overlooked young pitchers in baseball despite being the No. 6 overall pick in the 2006 draft. If he can continue to show decent control, he's capable of becoming the Marlins' ace and can reel off a string of 175-strikeout seasons with ERAs in the mid-3.00s. He's not quite there yet, but it looks like the transition is beginning to take place. While Miller makes Marlins fans forget all about Willis, here are some other notes from around baseball … * With Adam Everett, Nick Punto, and Matt Tolbert all on the disabled list, Alexi Casilla suddenly has a chance for regular playing time in Minnesota. Casilla hasn't hit much since advancing past Double-A, batting just .257/.344/.316 in 129 games at Triple-A and a measly .227/.270/.280 in 72 games with the Twins. However, he's looked good at the plate since being called back up last week and has enough speed to be a fantasy asset regardless of his bat. A 5-foot-9, 160-pound bundle of raw energy who resembles Rafael Furcal with the glove and Luis Castillo on amphetamines with the bat, Casilla swiped 54 bases per 600 plate appearances in the minors, including 29 steals in 532 trips to the plate at Triple-A. He hasn't run quite as often in the majors, in large part because he's only been on base 27 percent of the time, but is 11-for-12 when he does take off and the Twins will no doubt encourage him to run plenty. * Clayton Kershaw was pulled from his Thursday start at Double-A after just one inning, leading to speculation that the 20-year-old southpaw may be on the verge of joining the Dodgers. MLB.com reported Thursday night that Kershaw could be a rotation option as soon as Saturday, which is somewhat surprising given that the Dodgers opted against calling him up when they needed a spot starter less than two weeks ago. Kershaw is without question one of the elite pitching prospects in baseball and has dominated at Double-A despite turning 20 in March, posting a 2.28 ERA, 47-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .202 opponent's batting average over 43.1 innings. However, he'd be far from a sure thing to thrive in the majors immediately. Along with an amazing 264 strikeouts he's also handed out 87 walks over 203 career innings, and has recorded more than 18 outs in just one start this season. * After experiencing shoulder soreness in a mop-up outing Tuesday, the Brewers announced Thursday that Eric Gagne has been shut down indefinitely with rotator-cuff tendinitis. He received a cortisone shot and has been told to cease throwing for at least three days, seemingly making it likely that he'll land on the disabled list. With Gagne out Salomon Torres is once again the favorite for saves, although manager Ned Yost's bullpen management has been unpredictable. * It took a while, but Ryan Howard finally got his batting average above .200 by going 3-for-5 with a homer Thursday. Howard's batting average had been below the Mendoza Line following all but 10 of his first 48 games this season, including every day since April 21. Now he's all the way up to .207 and has quietly put together a big two-week stretch, going 17-for-56 (.304) with seven homers and 15 RBIs over the past 14 games. * Eric Byrnes was highly unlikely to repeat last season's career-high 50 steals to begin with, but lingering hamstring problems have made it impossible. Manager Bob Melvin said Wednesday that Byrnes is at significantly less than full strength right now and his lack of action on the bases agrees with that assessment. Byrnes hasn't stolen a base since May 7, has just one steal since April 20, and sat out Thursday's game altogether. * Just when it looked like Nate McLouth was slowing down by going just 9-for-46 (.198) over the past dozen games, he came up with a 4-for-4 night Thursday, scoring three runs, stealing his fifth base of the season, and raising his batting average back above .300. McLouth is now hitting .314 with 12 homers, 29 total extra-base hits, five steals, 36 RBIs, 41 runs, and a 25-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 46 games, putting him on pace for a monstrous .300-40-120-140 season. AL Quick Hits: As expected, Joe Borowski (triceps) is scheduled to come off the disabled list and resume closing Friday … Ian Kennedy may have held onto his rotation spot by limiting the Orioles to one run over six innings in a no-decision Thursday … C.J. Wilson shook off recent struggles to pick up his ninth save of the season with a perfect 10th inning Thursday … Clay Buchholz (fingernail) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Sunday at Triple-A, but with Bartolo Colon now in the rotation the Red Sox don't figure to rush him back … Gary Sheffield collected three hits Thursday to push his batting average above .200, but hasn't homered since April 29 or driven in a run since May 10 … Victor Martinez left Thursday's game with a finger injury, but manager Eric Wedge said afterward that he may be able to play Friday … Daily Dose favorite Aaron Laffey turned in another strong start Thursday, tossing seven innings of two-run ball, but took a tough-luck loss versus Mark Buehrle … Due to a strained calf, Chien-Ming Wang's next start has been pushed back from Saturday to Sunday. NL Quick Hits: Clarifying his statements about retirement from earlier this week, Pedro Martinez said Thursday that he plans to play "at least two or three more seasons" … Ken Griffey Jr. had been stuck on 597 career homers since April 23, but went deep Thursday for the first time in 90 at-bats … While throwing to live hitters Thursday, John Smoltz experimented with a lower arm slot that he hopes will alleviate some pressure from his sore shoulder … General manager Jim Bowden indicated Wednesday that Jesus Flores may continue to start after Paul Lo Duca (hand) returns from the disabled list next month … After hitting just .268/.386/.357 in 16 games as a No. 3 hitter, Hanley Ramirez moved back to the leadoff spot Thursday … Ryan Doumit (thumb) said Wednesday that he's hoping to return within two weeks and "will be back sooner than anyone thinks" … Jacque Jones is expected to join the Marlins prior to Friday's game and should see regular playing time against right-handers … Roy Oswalt made his scheduled start Thursday despite leaving his last outing with a hip injury, but allowed five runs on 11 hits versus the Phillies. |
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| | #143 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| A good story, but not the best In almost every write-up of Jon Lester's no-hitter, it mentions that the stellar performance would make the perfect ending to a movie about his recovery from cancer. That sounds fine and all, if sappy movies are your thing, but I'd prefer to see a movie centered on Bartolo Colon's return to the major leagues. Imagine the excitement of a movie about a hefty Dominican forced to battle the evil forces of cheeseburgers and pizzas. The movie would deal with the heart-breaking struggles the pitcher faces, such as trying to force his gut into a snug baseball uniform, and being taunted in the showers by his evil nemesis, the svelte Julio Lugo. While I contact screenwriter-turned-fantasy-expert Matthew Berry to help me get started on my idea, here are some waiver options: American League Jon Lester – SP – BOS - In the first 41 2/3 innings Lester pitched this season, he issued 23 walks. In his last 20 1/3, he's issued just five. Granted, one of those outings was his no-hitter, but it's still an encouraging trend. Control has been the young pitcher's biggest problem (besides, uh, cancer) in the majors, and maybe his stellar outing on Monday will give him the confidence to attack the plate with more regularity. He's predictably seen a spike in ownership lately, and while he's worth owning, it's probably best to make sure he's used only in the right match-ups until he proves he's figured out how to hit his spots for good. Recommendation: Should be owned in AL leagues, streamed in mixed Bartolo Colon – SP – BOS He's back! Again! In his first start of the season, Colon limited the Royals to two runs in just five innings. Colon was working in the low nineties, and figures to improve on that as he continues get back in shape. Of course, being "in shape" for Colon probably has a different meaning than for the rest of us. Colon was solid in Triple-A rehab appearances, going 14 innings with a 0.64 ERA and striking out 11, but durability issues will almost certainly hamper him this season. In 2007, five of his first six starts were quality, but he was pretty terrible after that and had to go back on the disabled list twice. In the early part of the season, he should contribute to fantasy teams, just don't expect it to last. Recommendation: Should be owned in AL leagues, streamed in mixed leagues Hank Blalock – 3B/1B – TEX Based on last year's September, in which he hit .313 with five homers in just 64 at-bats, experts everywhere were predicting that Blalock could return to his 30-homer ways. His April numbers weren't incredibly inspiring, but he did hit three homers while struggling with a bad back. Blalock will return to first base, which should help him stay healthy in the short term, and he'll join an offense that has scored the third most runs in baseball this season. The upside makes him a worthwhile gamble in leagues of most sizes. Recommendation: Should be owned in AL leagues, considered in mixed Joey Devine – RP – OAK - Both Andrew Brown and Santiago Casilla have been knocked out due to injury, so Devine figures to see plenty of work late in close games. Devine's biggest problem in his brief stints in the majors has always been walks. In 19 2/3 innings prior to this season, he had issued 22 free passes. In his first 16 1/3 innings this season, he issued just 3 bases on balls, although he's given up four in three innings since assuming a larger role. Still, Devine has struck out 26 hitters in 19 1/3 innings, compiling a 1.40 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. With Santiago Casilla sidelined for the next month, Devine is also a top candidate to replace Huston Street if something happens to him. Even if that doesn't happen, he should post solid numbers with plenty of strikeouts in Oakland. Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues, watched in mixed Eric Chavez – 3B – OAK - Eric Chavez could be back as soon as next week, and he could be just what's needed for teams starved for help at third base. His last two years have been zapped by injuries, but as we mentioned in our draft guide, he's only 30 years old and could return to his old form if he can stay healthy. He's been able to hit all season, but the team has been cautious with him due to fielding concerns. He's currently hitting .421/.450/.737 in 19 minor league at bats, and while expectations should be tempered, he's available in almost every league. Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL and mixed leagues. Jose Guillen – OF – KC - Guillen has been covered here before, but he's raised his average almost 100 points this month after a dismal April. He's already hit six home runs, tempering fears raised by offseason steroid allegations, and he's shown in the past that he can maintain a batting average right around .290. As the cleanup hitter in Kansas City, he has value as a third or fourth outfielder. Recommendation: Should be owned in AL leagues, considered in mixed leagues Jeremy Reed – OF – SEA - Reed was once one of the better prospects in the game, but disappointing 2005 in the majors has been followed by injuries and he now projects to be little more than a fourth outfielder. He did manage to hit .300 at Triple-A last season, and had hit an impressive .349 there this year before getting called up on Monday. He had just 19 homers in over 700 at-bats during that span, but don't be surprised if he starts seeing more playing time in Seattle's anemic offense. He's 2-for-6 since getting recalled, and the Mariners really have nothing to lose by giving the 26-year-old one more shot with the team. Recommendation: Watch in AL, mixed leagues Alexei Ramirez – 2B/OF – CHW First off, and perhaps most importantly, this guy looks exactly like Starvin' Marvin from South Park. It's uncanny. He's one of the skinniest ballplayers I've ever seen, but he displayed plenty of power in Cuba and has an absolute cannon of an arm. What he doesn't have is consistent playing time in Chicago. Over the last week he's been filling in for Juan Uribe, and he's gone 7-for-22, raising his average to .203. The only other time he's gotten regular playing time was in spring training, when he hit .358/.375/.582 with just 12 strikeouts in 67 at-bats. Still, both Juan Uribe and Danny Richar figure to challenge him for playing time, giving Alexei little long-term job security. Recommendation: Watch in AL leagues, mixed leagues National League Salomon Torres – RP – MIL - Eric Gagne is suffering from rotator-cuff tendonitis, and while it's possible he'll be able to avoid a trip to the disabled list, he's going to miss at least a week and quite possibly more. The Brewers say they'll close by committee, but Torres is the favorite to get most save opportunities in the meantime. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues for now. Wandy Rodriguez – SP – HOU Rodriguez could return to Houston's rotation as soon as next week, and once he does return he should slip right back into his familiar role as "guy who you only start when he's at home." He had a 2.94 ERA at home last season, compared to 6.37 on the road. This year he's tallied a 0.98 mark at home, limiting batters to a .188 average against him in Houston. Recommendation: Stream in both NL and mixed leagues. Dmitri Young – 1B – WAS - It's almost as if Nick Johnson would rather watch Da Meat Hook play than trot out there himself. Just as Young was nearing a return from the sprained back that has sidelined him for most of the season, Johnson went and messed up his wrist, handing Young the starting job for the second year in a row. Young's fantasy value seemed to be zapped before he tallied a .320-13-74 line in 136 games last season. His new stadium is a better hitter's park, and he has at least a month at first base, possibly longer depending on Johnson's recovery. Recommendation: Grab in NL-Only leagues, watch in mixed leagues Mark Kotsay – OF – ATL - Kotsay has been moved up to the second spot in Atlanta's order, and although he's hitting just .256 in that slot this season, he's scored nine runs in just 39 at-bats in the two-hole. Kotsay is hitting .296 on the season, and has little speed or power, but he should continue to score plenty at the top of Atlanta's lineup. Just be aware that his back injury could flare up at any time. atlantabraves.com Recommendation: Should be owned in NL leagues, considered in AL leagues. Chris Perez – RP – STL - Chris Perez is the closer of the future in St. Louis, and with Jason Isringhausen expected to be out for the next four-to-six weeks, he could get a chance soon. He had posted a 2.04 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings in Triple-A this season, and since getting called up he's pitched three scoreless innings without allowing a single hit. On Sunday, he was trusted to pitch in the top of the ninth in a tie game. He could get a look if Ryan Franklin falters, and should get plenty of holds and strikeouts in the meantime. Recommendation: Worth grabbing in deep NL leagues, watch in mixed leagues. Jacque Jones – OF – FLA - November 12 was a devastating day for NL-only leagues in France, as national hero Jacque Jones was traded from the Cubs to the Tigers. Rest easy, Francois! He's back! Jones is currently on a minor league rehab assignment, but he figures to start against righties when he makes it back to the majors. Jones is hitting just .165, but it's in only 79 at-bats. Also, he didn't really heat up until the second half of last season, hitting .332 after the All Star game. Recommendation: Grab in NL-Only leagues, monitor in deep mixed leages Michael Barrett – C- MIL - Wednesday night in San Diego was quite a roller coaster. At first, it was pure excitement as Albert Pujols smacked a liner right into Chris Young's face, breaking his nose. That was followed by the uncomfortable embrace of Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez, who apparently decided to start praying for Young while locked in a side hug. Thankfully, Pujols again livened things up by giving Josh Bard a high ankle sprain as he slid into home. Michael Barrett is currently finishing up a rehab assignment in Triple-A, but he should be back within a week. Big things were expected of him last season, but a fight with Carlos Zambrano, a trade to San Diego and an injury were all parts of a disappointing season. Barrett had three straight seasons with 16 homers and an OPS over 820 before last year, though, and while playing in Petco will clearly hurt, he could end up making a case to be the Padres' full-time catcher. Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL leagues, watch in mixed leagues Ubaldo Jimenez – SP – COL - Jimenez has pitched well in his last three outings, surrendering six runs in 20 2/3 innings while compiling a 17/6 K/BB ratio. One thing to consider is that the outings came against San Diego, Minnesota and San Francisco, who are hardly offensive juggernauts. Still, it's encouraging for his odds at success this season that he seems to have found his control in his most recent starts. He's still going to need to improve if he's ever going to become an icon in America, and finally make the name "Ubaldo" popular, but the three performances are at least a step in the right direction. Recommendation: Worth owning in NL leagues, watch in mixed leagues Tim Redding – SP – WAS - After shutting out the Phillies for 6 1/3 innings on Monday, Tim Redding now has a 3.16 ERA, but that masks a very mediocre 36/22 K/BB ratio. So far Redding's shown that he can't get through the order more than three times without getting hit hard, and his .234 BABIP is bound to rise. Still, he could be worth using in the right match-up this season, but with Milwaukee and Arizona next on the schedule, now's not the time to start counting on him. Recommendation: Worth owning in NL leagues, stream in mixed leagues. Jack Wilson – SS- PIT - Wilson is nearing the end of a rehab assignment and could be back with the Pirates in the next couple of days. He posted a solid .293 batting last season, but his peripheral numbers were pretty weak. When he returns this season, though, he'll be a part of an offense that is in the top 10 in terms of runs scored, compared to an offense that was in the bottom ten last season. It's unlikely he'll maintain the solid numbers from last season, but the better surrounding cast could boost his fantasy relevance. Recommendation: Should be owned in NL leagues, watch in mixed leagues Jesus Flores – C – WAS - Through 14 games, Jesus Flores is hitting .357, and the Nationals staff has taken notice, with GM Jim Bowden saying that Flores might remain the primary catcher once Paul Lo Duca returns from the disabled list. Of course, for that to remain true, Flores' unsustainable .467 BABIP can't come down before then. Flores has a bright future as a power-hitting catcher, but the 23-year-old still needs time to refine his game. Even if the last-place Nats let him develop in the majors, don't expect this level of success to continue. That being said, he's worth using in NL leagues, even though he will suffer a drop from his current lofty production. Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL leagues, watch in mixed leagues |
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| | #144 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Oft-Injured return to the DL Injuries galore, Joba foolishness, and more in this week's Week That Was. Clint Barmes . Clint Barmes sprained his right knee in the Rockies 13 inning win over the Mets Friday night. This is a tough break for Barmes and his owners. Clint has been raking at a .343 clip since taking over for the injured Troy Tulowitzki. Time will tell here, but a DL stint could easily derail Barmes' season as reports indicate Tulo will be back in 4-6 weeks. If you own Barmes, you have no choice but to hold and hope. Hey, look at the bright side, it nothing to do with lugging deer meat. Grady Sizemore: Grady Sizemore had a long-awaited monster night on Friday, slamming a three-run dinger to go with a triple and two walks. What does this mean? It means that any buy low window on this star is closing fast. Yes, Sizemore has been a good teammate to his Indian buddies by not hitting and therefore, not showing them up for their complete abandonment of the offensive side of the game. However, he will hit and hit a lot from here on in. Grady is in his "26 year" with three 20/20 seasons under his belt. To quote Styx, the "future looks quite bright to me". Buy while you still can. Dontrelle Willis: Dontrelle Willis made his first relief appearance since returning from the DL, unfortunately with continued bad results – one inning, two walks, one run. The only thing surprising about Dontrelle this year is that people are surprised he is struggling. His strikeouts have declined for three straight years and he posted a ghastly whip of 1.60 last year in the NL (where there is a weak hitting pitcher not a DH to face). If you invested heavily to ride the D Train this year, you have no right to complain about the "unavoidable delay" (NY Subway humor). Seriously, Dontrelle is a classic example of why you should forget past playoff glory when making fantasy investment decisions. Shelley Duncan: Shelley Duncan went yard for the first time last night as Yankee bats came alive against Seattle. SELL. Yes, Duncan was a nice story last year. Yes, he comes from a good baseball family. Yes, he would be a good pinch hitter, sparkplug type of guy. However, he cannot hit or field enough to play regularly as the Yankees ramp up for their post Memorial Day run. Look for Shelley to play little once Wilson Betemit returns from the DL. If you can get a productive player for Shelley now, do it. Just call around and harp about how he hit a homer every 11 AB's last year (just hold your nose while you do it). Eric Gagne: In an announcement that should shock only those brand new to the game, the Brewers placed Eric Gagne on the DL. I know I am sometimes a broken record, but I will repeat myself anyway – do not invest heavily in injury prone players – they get . . . wait for it . . . INJURED. Ok, enough ranting. While Gagne is on the shelf, Salomon Torres should resume the role he held in Pittsburgh – closer. Torres was pretty bad last year, but pretty effective from 04-06. Those in need of saves should take a flyer here. Just beware that he will have to control that walk rate in order to be effective. Juan Uribe: In what is probably good news for fantasy owners (though you never want someone to get hurt), the Chisox put Juan Uribe on DL. Bottom line – if you had Uribe in your lineup, you needed this wakeup call. Uribe has been consistent over the last two years – consistently weak. He it .234 and .235 in 06-07 and is below the Mendoza line this year. Cut bait now. Joba Chamberlain: Ok, my turn to rant and rave (hey, its my column, I can do that). The Yankees announced that they have started the voyage toward converting all-world set up man Joba Chamberlain into a starter. It sort of seems to me like I am watching Titanic and cannot warn Kate Winslet to stay off the ship. Seriously, think about it this way – when Joe Girardi was a Yankee catcher in 1996 and they had an incredibly dominant set up man (Mariano Rivera), was Joe harping about making Rivera a starter? No, of course not. Why? Because it makes no sense. Remember, the Yankees did not fall into the pit of temptation with Mo in 1996 even though David Cone had aneurysm surgery and missed a good part of the season and Kenny Rogers was just plain bad. To make this move even more foolish, consider that Darrel Rasner has been great, the three veterans have been pretty solid, Ian Kennedy pitched very well this week and Phil Hughes is coming back. The Yankee problems have not been with starting pitching. The problems have been injuries and lack of consistent offense – neither of which can be solved by giving up baseball's best set up man. Final note – Joba's transformation is terrible news for fantasy owners of Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and the rest of the Yankee starters. How many wins will they lose when Kyle Farnsworth and Latroy Hawkins come in to pour kerosene, gasoline and lighter fluid on the fires late in games? Moises Alou: In another announcement that should shock only the most unread of fantasy players, the Mets placed Moises Alou back on the DL. Ok, repeat after me – injury prone players get . . . INJURED! At this point, the Mets have to seriously consider getting a LF who can hit. If you own any Met (even David Wright), you should seriously think about whether they will produce the offensive numbers you expected. Full disclosure – Rick and I invested heavily in Wright and Reyes. With Beltran hitting his usual .265, Delgado flirting with the Mendoza line, Schneider set to come back down to earth, etc, they desperately need a consistent bat in the OF. Though a power hitter would be better, do we think Kenny Lofton hitting in the two hole would be an offensive upgrade to Tatis, Anderson, Chavez et al? Adam Everett: In a move that should hurt their defense, but help the offense, the Twins placed Adam Everett on the 15-day disabled list. Brendan Harris will slide to SS with rookie Alexi Casilla playing 2B. Casilla represents a buying opportunity. In the last 5 days, Alexei is 6-19 with 7 RBI and 5 runs. Ride the wave. Plus, he should add some swipes too. Hiroki Kuroda: Hiroki Kuroda pitched eight strong innings to beat the Reds on Wednesday. At this point, Hiroki is 2-3 with a 3.48 ERA. Time to sell high. He will struggle more as hitters get their second and third looks at him. Also, Japanese pitchers are accustomed to a much shorter season. It is very common for them to struggle in the second half – see Dice K, 2007. SELL. And finally, this week's Schultz Says: "Memorial Day always marks a significant point in the rotisserie baseball season. For the first few weeks of the season, it's difficult to get a real hold as to whether your runaway success is sustainable or if you will be hopelessly mired in the miserable depths to which your team has sunk. The season is now 1/3 gone and with the long weekend that most everyone should be enjoying it might be prudent to take a few minutes and make some hard, honest decisions as to where your team is heading. It's not always the easiest task. Being a strong believer in my Cleveland Indians (which in case Glenn and everyone forgot knocked of the big bad terrible Yankees with little difficulty in last years playoffs), I invested heavily in Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia and Grady Sizemore. While cherry-picking Cliff Lee has worked out well, let's just say that even with C.C.'s revival the other hometown investments aren't working out too well. If, like me, you are being weighed down by underperforming superstars or not getting the stats you were expecting, this is the time to decide whether you trust your pre-season evaluations and expect your guys to rebound. I am a strong believer in the Tony Gwynn theory: if Gwynn was hitting .240 at the end of May that was the time to pounce on him - he's going to hit .350 by the end of the season so you want to be in on for the fun ride upward. Barring injuries, Ichiro's .294 average, Victor Martinez' 15 RBIs, Miguel Cabrera's all-around miserable season are statistical aberrations. If you own them, you might not want to write them or others like them off too quickly. The fixes you need might be right on your roster. That all being said, Bill Simmons might be right: Travis Hafner might have been unredeemably injured in that car crash at the end of "No Country For Old Men." Decide wisely and enjoy the weekend. Response: Cutting to it – Schultz is right – keep your stars IF they are in their prime and not injury prone. That said, I am not that unredeemably is a word or sure that Pronk will rebound. As to the Indians winning a playoff series last year, I am left to wonder why they could not even win a world series in any of the three Major League movies. Have a great holiday weekend, enjoy time with friends and family, watch some baseball, but most importantly, take a moment to reflect on the real reason for Memorial Day and remember in your thoughts those who made the ultimate sacrifice. |
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| | #145 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Hungry like a Wolf Tough week in San Diego. Jake Peavy landed on the disabled list with a strained muscle in his elbow, Albert Pujols managed to take out both Chris Young and Josh Bard in one trip around the bases, and the team has lost five of their last seven. The Padres have scored the fewest runs in baseball, and now that Barry Zito has a win, they're making a case to be the new "so disastrous it's hard to look away." With nice match-ups against the Nationals and the Giants, the good news for Padres fans is that this week can't possibly get worst than last. Can it? Two-start Pitchers American League Must-Start Options Javier Vazquez - @CLE (Paul Byrd), @TB (Scott Kazmir) Greg Smith – TOR (A.J. Burnett), @TEX (Vicente Padilla) Felix Hernandez – BOS (Bartolo Colon), DET (Kenny Rogers) Scott Kazmir – TEX (Sidney Ponson), CHW (Javier Vazquez)) Shaun Marcum – KC (Brett Tomko), @LAA (John Lackey) A.J. Burnett - @OAK (Greg Smith), @LAA (Jon Garland) Other Options Garrett Olson – NYY (Darrell Rasner), BOS (Jon Lester) Brian Burres – NYY (Ian Kennedy), BOS (Bartolo Colon) Bartolo Colon - @SEA (Felix Hernandez), @BAL (Brian Burres) Mark Buehrle - @CLE (Aaron Laffey), @TB (Andy Sonnanstine) Paul Byrd – CHW (Javier Vazquez), @KC (Brian Bannister) Kenny Rogers - @LAA (Jon Garland), @SEA (Felix Hernandez) Brett Tomko - @TOR (Shaun Marcum), CLE (C.C. Sabathia) Brian Bannister – MIN (Nick Blackburn), CLE (Paul Byrd) Jon Garland – DET (Kenny Rogers), TOR (A.J. Burnett) Nick Blackburn - @KC (Brian Bannister), NYY (Darrell Rasner) Darrell Rasner - @BAL (Garrett Olson), @MIN (Nick Blackburn) Andy Sonnanstine – TEX (Vicente Padilla), CHW (Mark Buehrle) Sidney Ponson - @TB (Scott Kazmir), OAK (Joe Blanton) Vicente Padilla - @TB (Andy Sonnanstine), OAK (Greg Smith) National League Must Start Options Brandon Webb - @ATL (Jair Jurrjens), WAS (Jason Bergmann) Dan Haren – SF (Tim Lincecum), WAS (Shawn Hill) Jair Jurrjens – ARI (Brandon Webb), @CIN (Matt Belisle) Tim Hudson - @MIL (Dave Bush), @CIN (Johnny Cueto) Ryan Dempster – LAD (Chad Billingsley), COL (Aaron Cook) Johan Santana – FLA (Andrew Miller), LAD (Hiroki Kuroda) Tim Lincecum - @ARI (Dan Haren), SD (Randy Wolf) Other Options Sean Gallagher – LAD (Hiroki Kuroda), COL (Ubaldo Jimenez) Johnny Cueto – PIT (Ian Snell), ATL (Tim Hudson) Aaron Cook - @PHI (Jamie Moyer), @CHC (Ryan Dempster) Ubaldo Jimenez - @PHI (Kyle Kendrick), @CHC (Sean Gallagher) Ricky Nolasco - @NYM (Mike Pelfrey), @PHI (Jamie Moyer) Shawn Chacon - @STL (Joel Pineiro), @MIL (Dave Bush) Chad Billingsley - @CHC (Ryan Dempster), @NYM (Mike Pelfrey) Hiroki Kuroda - @CHC (Sean Gallagher), @NYM (Johan Santana) Ben Sheets - @WAS (Jason Bergmann), HOU (Chris Sampson) Dave Bush – ATL (Tim Hudson), HOU (Shawn Chacon) Mike Pelfrey – FLA (Ricky Nolasco), LAD (Chad Billingsley) Jamie Moyer – COL (Aaron Cook), FLA (Ricky Nolasco) Ian Snell - @CIN (Johnny Cueto), @STL (Joel Pineiro) Randy Wolf – WAS (Shawn Hill), @SF (Tim Lincecum) Joel Pineiro – HOU (Shawn Chacon), PIT (Ian Snell) Jason Bergmann – MIL (Ben Sheets), @ARI (Brandon Webb) Shawn Hill - @SD (Randy Wolf), @ARI (Dan Haren) Possible Streamers The following are pitchers who are available in most mixed leagues and have at least one solid match-up this week. American League Monday 5/26 – Darrell Rasner @BAL – Rasner's off to a hot start, allowing just four runs and striking out 11 in his first 19 innings, and he should continue to fare well this week, with match-ups against the Orioles and Twins. He's already faced the Orioles once this season, and held them to just five hits in seen innings of shutout ball. Monday, 5/26 – Bartolo Colon @ SEA – Last year when Colon came back, five of his first six starts were quality. He pitched well in his first outing, and this week faces Seattle and Baltimore, two of the worst offenses in the major leagues. With just one game to go off it's risky, but worth considering. Tuesday 5/27 - Brian Bannister vs. MIN – Bannister has already faced the Twins at home once this season, throwing a three-hit complete game. In his career against Minnesota, Bannister is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. His second start is against the Indians, making him a better daily league candidate. Sunday, 6/1 – Paul Byrd @ KC – Byrd has been up and down this season: he has five games where his ERA is over 6.00, and four games where it's under 1.50, and nothing in between. Sunday's game against Kansas City, one of the more brutal offenses in baseball, should be an "up." National League It's an admittedly slow week in the National League… Tuesday 5/27 – Randy Wolf vs. WAS – Wolf went through a brief rough patch as the month changed over, but that was largely due to facing four of the better offenses in the National League. In his two most recent starts, he's compiled a 14/2 K/BB ratio in 13.1 innings. Wolf faces the Nats and the Giants, two of the worst offenses in the National League, so he's a fine weekly start. Thursday 5/29 – John Lannan @ SD – Lannan has allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts. The Padres have scored the fewest runs in baseball, and pitching in Petco should help Lannan limit the damage done against him. Total Games American League 7: CHW, KC, TB, TOR 6: BAL, BOS, CLE, DET, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, SEA, TEX National League 7: ARI, ATL, CHC, COL, LAD, MIL, NYM, WAS 6: CIN, FLA, HOU, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, Righty vs. Lefty match-ups American League Baltimore - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Boston - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Chicago White Sox - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Cleveland - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Detroit - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Kansas City - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Los Angeles Angels - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Minnesota - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties New York Yankees - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Oakland - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties Seattle - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Tampa Bay - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Texas - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Toronto - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Notes: The Red Sox face three lefties this week, and while J.D. Drew has hit lefties at just a .234 clip over the past three seasons, he's hitting .333 off them this year, although in just 21 at-bats. The Yanks face three lefties as well, which could help Robinson Cano, who is hitting lefties 43 points better than he is righties. Johnny Damon has hit .305 off lefties over the past three years. Jason Giambi has hit just .238, though, so he might be worth sitting if you have better options. The Rays will once again face three left-handed pitchers this week, which could be nice for Jason Bartlett (.311 vs. LHP). It might hurt Eric Hinske, who is just a .173 hitter against lefties over the past three seasons and has a .129 average against them this season. Evan Longoria could also struggle – he's hit .118 against lefties so far this season. National League: Arizona - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Atlanta - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties Chicago Cubs - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Cincinnati - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Colorado - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Florida - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties Houston - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Los Angeles Dodgers – 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Milwaukee - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties New York Mets - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Philadelphia - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Pittsburgh - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties San Diego - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties San Francisco - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties St. Louis - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Washington - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Notes: The Cubs will face three lefties, which means that Reed Johnson should get at least a few starts. Derrek Lee is hitting .308 off lefties this season, and Alfonso Soriano is hitting .429. Ryan Theriot is hitting .372 off lefties this season. The Reds face three southpaws, which isn't great news for Paul Bako, who has hit just .205 off them this season. Adam Dunn is hitting just .227 off them and only 3 of his 12 homers have come against lefties. Ken Griffey Jr. Is hitting just .173 off lefties thus far. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .288 off them meanwhile, making him a solid option, just like Ryan Freel, who is hitting .375 in 56 at-bats against lefties. Jerry Hairston is hitting .381 off lefties so far this season, so he can be considered. Joey Votto is hitting .292 off southpaws. The Marlins have four starts against left-handed pitchers, which isn't great news for Jacque Jones in his first week with the team. Jorge Cantu is hitting .306 off lefties thus far. Be aware that Mike Jacobs is hitting just .175 off them. The Padres face three lefties, which isn't great news for Adrian Gonzalez, who is hitting just .196 off them, but he should obviously be played anyway. Scott Hairston has hit just .205 off lefties this season, and Tadahito Iguchi is hitting just .175 off them. Kevin Kouzmanoff should have a nice week, as he's hit .326 off lefties thus far this season. The Giants also face three lefties, which is bad news for Fred Lewis, who's hit just .154 off them. Bengie Molina has hit just .256 off them, so he could have a down week. Daniel Ortmeier is hitting .270 off lefties, so those of you in the deepest of deep leagues could try using him. Aaron Rowand should have a solid week, as he's hit .386 off southpaws this season. Washington also has three games against lefties next week, which is good news for Ryan Zimmerman (.330 career vs. LHP). Christian Guzman has hit just .210 versus lefties in the past three years, but he's hitting .367 in 60 at-bats against them this season. The Injury Bug For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page. Wandy Rodriguez – SP – groin - Could return this week Eric Chavez - 3B – back - Could return this week David Eckstein – SS – hip – Should return Monday John Smoltz – SP/RP – shoulder – Should be back this week Rafael Soriano – RP – elbow – Should return this week Chad Tracy – 3B – knee – Will join the team on Monday Rafael Furcal – SS – back – return delayed, could be back this week Fausto Carmona – SP – hip – Day-to-day Jake Westbrook – SP – ribs – Could be back this week Felix Hernandez – SP – calf – Might pitch Monday, could be pushed Chris Young – SP – head – Was Pujolsed Josh Bard – C – ankle – Also was Pujolsed Jake Peavy – SP – elbow – Return late June Michael Barrett – C – elbow – Could be back this week Jayson Werth – OF – abdomen – Return mid-June Ryan Doumit – C – thumb – Might return on Thursday Jack Wilson – SS – calf – Should return by Tuesday Kevin Millwood – SP – groin – Could return on Friday Hank Blalock – 3B/1B – carpal tunnel – Out indefinitely Paul Konerko – 1B – hand – Day-to-day Waiver Wired For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired. AL 1. Jon Lester 2. Bartolo Colon 3. Hank Blalock (Return now delayed) 4. Joey Devine 5. Eric Chavez NL 1. Salomon Torres 2. Wandy Rodriguez 3. Dmitri Young 4. Andrew Miller 5. Mark Kotsay |
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| | #146 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| AL Team-by-Team Notes I had serious doubts the Yankees were telling the truth about their intentions to move Joba Chamberlain to the rotation during the season, but they are following through with the switch. While they've tried to temper enthusiasm by saying his first start won't come as quickly as some are speculating, I doubt he'll spend all that much more time in the bullpen. As soon as he's ready to throw five innings, it would make sense to have those innings come at the beginning of the game, not in the middle. Chamberlain stands to take Ian Kennedy's spot in the rotation. Assuming good health, he'll have time to make 17-18 starts and pitch 100-110 innings. I see him amassing an ERA in the mid-3.00s as a starter and averaging just over a strikeout an inning. American League Notes Baltimore - Jim Johnson spent two years as one of the least distinguished players on the Orioles' 40-man roster -- he spent eight days in the majors and gave up 10 runs in five innings -- but a switch from the rotation to the pen has done him a world of good and he'd now likely be the choice to close if George Sherrill goes down to injury or gets traded. He's throwing 93-95 mph, which is harder than he ever did as a starter, and the increase in velocity has made his curve a lot more effective. He's more likely to be a setup man than a closer for the long-term, but he's a definite sleeper for the second half of this year. … With 10 of the team's next 13 games against the Yankees and Red Sox, this isn't a good time to be relying on Orioles pitchers. Brian Burres is due to turn back into a pumpkin at any moment anyway. … If Saturday's massacre was the end for Steve Trachsel in Baltimore, then Matt Albers will probably take over as the team's fifth starter. Boston - Jon Lester's no-no just adds to an already great story. Unusual about the outing -- besides the fact that he didn't allow any hits -- was that he was throwing his hardest in the seventh and eighth innings. He's jamming more hitters with his four-seamer inside and still using his cutter generously. The result is that he's getting more grounders than ever before during his string of fine outings over the last month. It looks like a real breakthrough. However, it'd be no surprise to see a hangover effect from the 130-pitch outing in his next couple of starts. … Bartolo Colon also impressed in his Red Sox debut on Wednesday. He threw almost nothing but fastballs, but that's typical for him. He was able to top out at 95 mph, and he was still throwing right around 90 mph when he went to the two-seamer. There's a good chance he'll get to keep his rotation spot after Clay Buchholz (finger) is ready to return from the DL. Unless Tim Wakefield needs a break, Buchholz will probably be sent down to Triple-A before the end of the month. Colon is worth using in AL-only leagues now and could be an option in mixed leagues if he fares well versus Seattle and Baltimore this week. Chicago - It'd sure be nice to know what's really going on inside Paul Konerko's sore right hand. The usually reliable first baseman is batting .212 with five homers, the last of which came on April 27. His isolated power, which has been running right around .250 for four years now, is at .134. Obviously, the problem is no simple bruise that's going to fade away. If there's ligament damage -- and the Chicago Tribune has provided some indication that that's the case -- then Konerko could spend the rest of the season playing at less than 100 percent. Maybe the cortisone shot he received will take away the pain and let him swing normally, but if there's real weakness in the hand, that won't help. This is one case in which it wouldn't be a bad idea to sell low. He shouldn't be active in shallow mixed leagues right now. … Alexei Ramirez hasn't been particularly impressive offensively or defensively while filling in for Juan Uribe (hamstring). The job will be his for at least another week after Uribe was placed on the DL on Friday, but he might ultimately be sent down and replaced by Danny Richar, who just began a rehab assignment after missing the first 7 ½ weeks with a stress fracture in his rib cage. Since Uribe was still slumping before going down, the opportunity will be there for Richar to claim a starting job. He's not a great bet, but he'd be nice to have stashed away in AL-only leagues. Cleveland - What's left for the Indians to try to get their offense going? They could sit Ryan Garko for Michael Aubrey, but that's not at all likely to prove to be an upgrade. Garko has the third-best OBP and slugging percentage of the team's regulars anyway. Adding Josh Barfield to the middle-infield mix won't be an option unless he starts hitting in Triple-A. Sitting Casey Blake for Andy Marte would be a worthwhile experiment, but it's not going to happen with Blake leading the team in RBI. Odds are that we'll see more of the same this week. It looks like the Indians will create a spot for Shin-Soo Choo soon. Sending down Aubrey is the likeliest choice, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they'll designate either Marte or David Dellucci for assignment. … There's never a good time to lose someone as talented as Fausto Carmona (hip), but it won't hurt as much with Jake Westbrook (ribs) set to return Wednesday. Aaron Laffey will get to keep his rotation spot for at least a couple of more weeks. Since the White Sox are struggling, Westbrook should be worth using in all formats immediately. … Victor Martinez missed a second game Saturday after an errant attempt to remove a hangnail Wednesday left him with a torn cuticle. It'd be nice if he started using some of that strength to knock the ball out of the park once in a while. Detroit - There was no way Detroit was taking Armando Galarraga out of the rotation, so Dontrelle Willis, who had made just two starts since signing a three-year, $29 million contract, was sent to the bullpen after being activated from the DL last week. What the Tigers really need is for Kenny Rogers to strain one of his ancient hamstrings. Willis is still having major difficulties finding the strike zone, but he's more likely to work through the problem in the rotation than in the pen. He'll probably regain a spot within the next couple of weeks. I don't see Galarraga remaining a useful starter, but he is pitching better than anyone else in the rotation right now. Justin Verlander remains the Tigers' only starter worth using in mixed leagues. … Matt Joyce is already fourth on the Tigers with five homers in just 43 at-bats since being called up. He's not hitting for average, but he's also not striking out, which could be taken as an indication that he'll have some staying power. Still, he's not to be grabbed in mixed leagues. He projects as a long-term reserve. Kansas City - Billy Butler's sophomore season started nicely, but his average has been dropping steadily since the middle of April and he's been stuck on one homer for nearly six weeks. Right-handers are still eating him alive. He's hit .331 with a 960 OPS against lefties and .262 with a 672 OPS versus righties in nearly a full season in the majors. There's still no doubt in my mind that he'll develop into a top-flight hitter, but until his eventual 25- or 30-homer power comes, it looks like he'll remain a liability two-thirds of the time. The Royals could consider sending him down, but it'd likely take a few more bad weeks before they'd go there. I don't think it will get that bad. … Mark Teahen has practically the same line as Butler and just 12 RBI in 47 games despite hitting in the middle of the order. The Royals should at least be looking to replace him against lefties. He's not going to lose his job entirely, but if he doesn't get a whole lot better, GM Dayton Moore and manager Trey Hillman would be foolish to pencil him in as a regular again next year. … The Royals are going to have to keep playing Miguel Olivo over John Buck most of the time while the catcher remains hot. They don't face particularly good pitching over the next couple of weeks, so Olivo is a short-term option as a No. 2 catcher in mixed leagues. Los Angeles - From the moment Torii Hunter was signed, Gary Matthews Jr. was no longer part of the Angels' best starting nine. Still, his contract made him a mainstay and nothing has changed even though he's been quite a bit worse than expected. It hasn't hurt that Juan Rivera has been an even bigger disappointment in his limited chances to play. Matthews is sure to improve, and since the Angels have stuck with him at the top of the order all through his slump, he still has some value in mixed leagues. He's on pace for 75 runs and RBI even though he hasn't done much of anything yet. … Chone Figgins sat out a third straight game with his sore leg on Saturday, but barring some bad news on Sunday, he'll have to be active in mixed leagues this week. … The Angels are hopeful that Howie Kendrick (hamstring) will be back by the weekend, but it's too risky to activate him. Minnesota - Alexi Casilla had no homers and two RBI in 96 at-bats for Triple-A Rochester. He has two homers and nine RBI in 26 at-bats since being called up. This after he hit .222/.256/.259 with no homers and nine RBI in 189 at-bats for the Twins last season. It seems doubtful that he's suddenly discovered the key to hitting major league pitching, but he is hot at the moment and that gives him value in AL-only leagues. He'll be the everyday second baseman until Adam Everett returns. … What happens once Everett comes back remains to be seen. The Twins are obviously down on Brendan Harris as a second baseman because of his struggles making the turn on double-play balls. If Casilla can stay hot, it's possible he'll retain the position for the rest of the year. That'd likely turn Harris into a utilityman. Mike Lamb has been awful, but the Twins won't be quick to replace him after giving him a two-year deal over the winter. Everett's glove makes enough of a difference that it's not worth using Harris at shortstop over him. The subject could be moot if Everett's shoulder problems are here to stay, but it is possible Harris will become a reserve next month. … Also at risk of a demotion is Boof Bonser. If Glen Perkins is still throwing well when Scott Baker returns early next month, it'd make sense to try Bonser as a reliever. It might be the best thing for the right-hander anyway. New York - Joba's move to the rotation leaves the Yankees with no obvious alternative in the closer's role in the event of an injury to Mariano Rivera. If Rivera went down today, then it's a pretty good guess that the plan to move Chamberlain would be abandoned. However, once Chamberlain is in the rotation, it's doubtful he'd be moved back unless he was really struggling. Kyle Farnsworth has been farily effective this year and probably would be next in line because of his experience. However, it'd be a good idea to keep a close eye on Edwar Ramirez. The changeup specialist has pitched 11 scoreless innings so far this season. … Wilson Betemit (hamstring) is expected to return Monday, and Alberto Gonzalez will probably be sent down to make room. The Yankees could instead release Morgan Ensberg, but as little as they use their infield backups, it would make sense to let Gonzalez play regularly in Triple-A. Oakland - The A's have already sent down two players who entered spring training as likely regulars in Travis Buck and Chris Denorfia. They may contemplate demoting another if Daric Barton doesn't snap out of it soon. The 22-year-old is hitting .213/.332/.319 in 160 at-bats this season. If Eric Chavez (back) comes off the DL this week, the A's will have to do something with their infield. Optioning out Barton and going with Jack Hannahan and Mike Sweeney at first base is a possibility. Sending down Gregorio Petit is another, but that would just push back the decision until Donnie Murphy (elbow) returns and leave the A's without a true backup at short. If Barton would just pick up his play, then the A's could consider releasing Sweeney. However, it's not looking good for the rookie right now. … Justin Duchscherer's terrific performance Saturday against the Red Sox lowered his ERA to 2.16 and will get him picked up in a lot of mixed leagues in which he remains unowned. AL-only leaguers should think about selling high. He is proving he can go through lineups three times per night, which is something I was skeptical about. However, he remains a poor bet to hold up physically. He's already missed time this season with a biceps strain, and he has a history of back troubles. Seattle - The changes in Seattle need to start at the top. If one thing is for certain, it's that current GM Bill Bavasi shouldn't have anything to do with the much-needed retooling that has to happen over the next seven months. Unfortunately, the Mariners' bad contracts will be impossible to move. No one from the group of Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson and Kenji Johjima has any trade value at all. Free-agent-to-be Raul Ibanez is the one player the Mariners must use to acquire a couple of quality prospects. Adrian Beltre is owed $11.5 million next year and doesn't have big numbers, so he probably wouldn't bring back what he's worth. The Mariners don't even have any veteran setup men likely to be prized by other terams. They could attempt to completely blow it up and move both Ichiro Suzuki (limited no-trade clause) and Erik Bedard, but that seems highly unlikely. More than anything else, what they need is a quality GM. There's no excuse at all for them to spare any expense in replacing Bavasi. … Further immediate changes to the lineup might not come after the foolish move to send down Jeff Clement and give Vidro his job back. However, the Mariners need to do something different in the rotation. Sending Batista to the pen makes the most sense. Jarrod Washburn has been just as bad, but Batista is the one of the two more likely to be of use as a reliever. Ryan Feierabend has been about as effective as anyone in the PCL and could get a chance to take over. Tampa Bay - Willy Aybar is nearing a return from a strained hamstring he suffered on April 9, but it doesn't look like there will be any room on the roster for the player who began the season as the Rays' starting third baseman. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that they could drop either Gabe Gross or Jonny Gomes, but Gross is their backup in center and Gomes is still needed against lefties, even if manager Joe Maddon doesn't trust him versus righties. Aybar is out of options, so he could soon become available on waivers. He'd make a lot of sense for the Giants. Texas - The move of Hank Blalock from third to first opened up one hole to fill another, but if it helps keep Blalock healthy, it might work for the short term. Chris Davis still should get a chance to finish the season as the starter at first base. In the meantime, Ramon Vazquez will get most of the playing time at third base over German Duran. Duran could be sent down if the Rangers have a chance to pick up someone like Aybar in waivers. Blalock, who was set to return from a hamstring strain Friday before coming down with a sore wrist, could come off the DL as soon as Monday or Tuesday. Still, it will take a favorable report on Sunday to make him worth activating for this week. … In what was probably his last chance to hang on to his job, C.J. Wilson successfully closed out a one-run lead on Thursday. He's still not going to have any margin for error over the next couple of weeks. If it didn't matter on the field, the Rangers would be better off with Eddie Guardado closing. It would help his chances of being flipped for a quality prospect at the deadline, and putting Wilson back into a setup role would make him cheaper once he eventually becomes arbitration eligible. Wilson's batting-average against and his walk rate are right where they were last year, but his ERA has increased from 3.03 to 4.79. He is likely to bounce back. It's just not necessarily going to happen as a closer. … Kevin Millwood's return from a groin strain on Friday figures to knock Doug Mathis out of the rotation. Toronto - Jesse Litsch very possibly would have found himself on the outside looking in on the Jays' rotation if not for Casey Janssen going down with a torn labrum in spring training. Now he's 6-1 with a 3.57 ERA. The one walk he issued in his shutout Saturday was his first in six starts since April 22. Litsch showed a varied arsenal last year, but he's pretty much focusing on his cutter and sinker this year. Neither pitch overwhelms with movement, but with the outstanding command he's had all year, he still hasn't given up a lot of well-hit balls. He is pitching above his head -- he gives up a fair amount of homers and doesn't induce quite as many grounders as one would hope given his pedestrian strikeout rate -- but if he's the new Carlos Silva, he'll eventually be a very rich man. … Alex Rios is in the midst of quite a slump, but that just makes him a buy-low candidate. He's on pace for more than 30 steals, so when his power does come back -- and there's no reason to believe it won't -- he could be more valuable than ever. … David Eckstein's expected return Monday from a hip injury will send Marco Scutaro to the bench. |
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| | #147 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| NL Team-by-Team Notes June rankings next week. It didn't seem likely that Clayton Kershaw would last six innings in his major league debut Sunday after a 32-pitch first, but he bounced back nicely and the Cardinals had a very difficult time laying off his pitches outside the strike zone. The walk he issued to the second batter he faced (Brian Barton) was his only one of the day, and he ended up striking out seven in a no-decision. Kershaw is due to make two more starts before the Dodgers consider additional revisions to their rotation. Jason Schmidt (shoulder) is sure to get a look if healthy, and because of the innings restrictions on his arm, Kershaw could be sent back down even if he continues to impress. It's surely worth trying him in mixed leagues anyway. Just don't be too disappointed if he heads back to the minors in June. National League Notes Arizona - If Chad Tracy's knee holds up, he should find himself at third base against most righties after returning Monday. The streaky Mark Reynolds is hitting .197 with just one homer in 71 at-bats this month. For the season, he's batting .211/.285/.368 in 114 at-bats against righties. Tracy is a career .308/.371/.508 hitter versus righties. He's also a modest upgrade over Reynolds defensively when healthy. Mixed leaguers should be looking to replace Reynolds, at least for the short-term. … The Diamondbacks elected to keep Max Scherzer as a reliever after Doug Davis rejoined the rotation on Friday. While he could help as a setup man, it seems unlikely that he'll be turned into a one-inning guy when he might be needed as a starter again. He'll probably get a lot of work when the Diamondbacks are one or two runs down, giving him a chance to vulture wins. Atlanta - John Smoltz (shoulder) and Rafael Soriano (elbow) are expected to return this week, with Mike Gonzalez (elbow) likely to follow in early June. Smoltz's shoulder didn't feel quite as good as hoped Sunday after his minor league appearance Saturday, so it's still not a lock that he'll be activated. However, the threat of Smoltz rejoining the team on Wednesday makes Soriano look like a weaker play in fantasy leagues. After more than a month and a half off, Soriano would probably be behind Manny Acosta in line for saves in his first week or two back anyway. … This is usually about the time that Mark Teixeira really heats up. Entering the season, his career homer totals by month were 15, 23, 27, 31, 35 and 38. This could be the last good opportunity to pull off a trade for him. … Blister problems have Jorge Campillo questionable to make his start Thursday. He's really impressed so far, but he'd be a tough play in fantasy leagues while pitching at less than 100 percent. If he's scratched, Jeff Bennett would probably start in his place, assuming he's not needed in relief before then. atlantabraves.com Chicago - Jim Edmonds hasn't appeared any less done in Chicago than he did in San Diego, and since the Cubs aren't known for their patience, it wouldn't come as a big surprise to see him get released after another bad week. That would give the Cubs a couple of options. One would be to call up Eric Patterson to platoon with Reed Johnson in center. They're not going to go back to Felix Pie, who is hitting .086 in 35 at-bats since his demotion, and Patterson has the range to play center, though he lacks a lot of experience there. Another possibility would be a move of Kosuke Fukudome to center. Micah Hoffpauir would likely get a trial in right, with Matt Murton called up to start versus southpaws. If they went back to Johnson, they'd be settling for a stopgap. They may need to trade for a center fielder later anyway, so they might as well experiment for now. Hoffpauir is worth considering in NL-only leagues because of the possibility for playing time. He's not the stud he appeared to be in spring training, but he has major league power. … With both Rich Hill and Sean Marshall on the DL at Triple-A Iowa, it looks like Sean Gallagher's rotation spot is safe for a couple of weeks. He'll get the Dodgers and Rockies at home this week, making him a fine short-term choice in NL-only leagues. Cincinnati - Perhaps Corey Patterson's 0-for-8 in Sunday's loss was the final straw. Monday being the 58th day of the season, it's highly unlikely that Jay Bruce would be a super-two player after 2010 if called up now. It definitely seems like the right time to make him the center fielder against right-handers anyway. He's actually been even better versus lefties in Triple-A (1071 OPS vs. 1004), but he does have a 17/1 K/BB ratio in 54 at-bats against them, suggesting that he might not be ready to be a full-timer just yet. Ryan Freel has been terrific against lefties and could keep platooning. … The Reds may need an extra starter this week after using both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez in relief in Sunday's marathon. If so, it seems unlikely that the struggling Homer Bailey would be the choice. Justin Lehr would have made sense for a spot start, but he was just sold to Korea. Lefty Matt Maloney might be tried instead. I'm not a fan, but the opportunity is definitely there for someone to overtake Matt Belisle. Maloney would have a reasonable chance if called up. Very good command of slightly below average stuff could make him a fourth or fifth starter. Colorado - The Rockies lost Brad Hawpe (hamstring) and Clint Barmes (knee) to the DL on Saturday, Matt Holliday (hamstring) on Sunday and played without Garrett Atkins (neck) and Willy Taveras (knee) the last two days, yet still managed to take two out of three from the disappointing Mets. They'll be going with Ryan Spilborghs, Scott Podsednik and Seth Smith in the outfield corners for the next couple of weeks. Spilborghs will be worth trying in deeper mixed leagues, and the other two will be fine to use in NL-only leagues. Omar Quintanilla, Jeff Baker and Jonathan Herrera are fighting for time at short and second. No one in the group has more than a little value in NL-only leagues. Atkins and Taveras are expected to avoid the disabled list, so they should be OK to play this week. … Jeff Francis was roughed up in the Rockies' lone loss to the Mets, and he's currently 1-5 with a 6.18 ERA. His velocity is down from last year, and he's been more frequently behind in the count, giving him fewer opportunities to use his curve. It looks like the 232 innings he threw between the regular season and October last year have taken a toll. He's barely worth playing in NL-only leagues right now, and it wouldn't be a great idea to use him against the Cubs this week. Florida - It's unlikely that Burke Badenhop will last, but the rest of the Marlins' rotation is looking a whole lot more solid because of the recent showings of Andrew Miller and Ricky Nolasco. Those two have combined to allow six earned runs in six starts over the last three weeks. With Miller's command coming around, he seems like the better bet to keep it up. Much of Nolasco's recent success is due to some luck at keeping the ball in the park. He shouldn't fall apart, but neither is likely to remain a particularly reliable fantasy starter. … Something that must have the Marlins concerned is the recent drop off in Scott Olsen's stuff. He's not supposed to be hurt, but he is pitching like it. Mixed leaguers should have him reserved for now. The time to sell high has likely passed, but it's still worth trying. … Jacque Jones was kept in extended spring training for just four days before joining the Marlins on Friday. He'll get a lot of time in center against righties as the Marlins try to figure out whether he'll be an upgrade over Alfredo Amezaga. That should give him modest value in NL-only leagues. Houston - Lance Berkman is on pace for career highs in practically every category. He's already there in steals, swiping his 10th base on Sunday. One of my major complaints is that he's never been driven in as often as he should be, but he's scored 53 runs this year. Subtracting his homers, he's been driven in 37 times in 51 games. Despite OBPs right around .400, he was driven in 50 times in 152 games in 2006 and 61 times in 153 games last year. Obviously, Carlos Lee deserves much of the credit. Lee has been driven in 14 times all year, so it's not the guys behind him producing. Berkman is going to fade, of course, and he's not going to keep stealing bases like this with pitchers likely to start taking notice of him. He'll get a new high in runs and drive in 110-120 runs. However, now is the time to see if he'd bring back a couple of stars in return. … Wandy Rodriguez will return from a strained groin on Wednesday, but he'll be pitching in St. Louis. As awful as he's been on the road since the start of last season (3-10, 6.41 ERA in 17 starts), fantasy leaguers may want to wait the extra week to activate him. … Brian Moehler has outpitched Chris Sampson lately, but indications are that he's still the likely candidate to head to the pen to make room for Rodriguez. Los Angeles - I don't think Andruw Jones is done, but the Dodgers should benefit from a regular outfield of Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. That's how it will shape up for the next 4-6 weeks after Andruw opted for knee surgery. Pierre was likely to keep playing anyway, but this means the Dodgers' top two outfielders will be in the lineup every day. … The Dodgers still desperately need Rafael Furcal back at the top of their lineup. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem all that likely to happen this week. Chin-Lung Hu and Luis Maza will keep filling in for Furcal, who has been out since May 6 with a lower back strain. … The move of Nomar Garciaparra (calf) to the 60-day DL would seem to secure Blake DeWitt's job for another month. Andy LaRoche still deserves a chance, but it's not going to come until DeWitt's average tumbles. He's hitting .306/.372/.470. Milwaukee - With Bill Hall in a year-long slump against righties and making errors in bunches, it was time to try something different at third base. Enter Russell Branyan. The slugger will never remind anyone of Scott Rolen at third base, but he's always tended to get the job done defensively, and he's a perfectly useful hitter against right-handers despite all of the strikeouts. With Hall amassing an 1195 OPS against lefties this year (versus a 546 mark against righties), a platoon could be surprisingly productive. I'm not all that optimistic it will really shape up that way -- Ned Yost will have to fight the urge to go back to Hall the first time Branyan fans four times in a game -- but Branyan is worth grabbing in NL-only leagues. … Salomon Torres will be Yost's preferred choice in the closer's role until Eric Gagne returns from rotator-cuff tendinitis. Guillermo Mota has choked away a couple of games recently, and David Riske doesn't appear to be all that close to returning from his elbow injury. Brian Shouse could get the odd opportunity when there are lefties due up in the ninth, but Torres is the one worth using in mixed leagues. … Seth McClung won in his rotation debut for the Brewers on Saturday, but that was against the Nationals. He has a 6.11 ERA in 38 career starts, making him a poor pickup in NL-only leagues. New York - Firing Willie Randolph is really the only thing the Mets can do as a way to shake up the team. There's very, very little flexibility with the roster. The only guys in the lineup who could potentially be replaced are Carlos Delgado and Brian Schneider, and Delgado has showed clear signs of progress lately. As for Schneider, no one seems the calling for his head. The pitchers enjoy throwing to him and Ramon Castro probably wouldn't hold up as a regular anyway, so that's settled. The rotation is set until Pedro Martinez (hamstring) returns next month, and neither Mike Pelfrey nor Claudio Vargas has been a real problem anyway. Trading Oliver Perez for a more reliable pitcher would be an interesting idea, but because he's a free agent at season's end, he probably wouldn't bring back what he's worth. What the Mets need is for a couple of their hitters to catch fire. It will surely happen, but perhaps not in time to save Randolph. … With Moises Alou (calf) and Marlon Anderson (hamstring) on the DL, the Mets are down to Endy Chavez, Nick Evans and Fernando Tatis in left field. Evans, a right-handed hitter, would be on the wrong side of a strict platoon, but he still looks like the best short-term choice in NL-only leagues. newyorkmets.com Philadelphia - Jayson Werth has more RBI than Shane Victorino and Geoff Jenkins combined, even though he has fewer at-bats than either player, making his loss to the DL with an abdominal strain a big one. Victorino will be an everyday player while Werth is out, so he's worth grabbing in any mixed leagues in which he was dropped. So Taguchi figures to take over as the platoon partner for Jenkins. … While they've been bit by the injury bug on offense, the Phillies have used the same 12 pitchers all year. They've even given all of the starts to the same five pitchers, though Chad Durbin has made a legitimate case for replacing either Adam Eaton or Kyle Kendrick. Brett Myers has the highest ERA on the staff, but he's staying put. If his fastball isn't what it was a couple of years ago, it's still above average. He's not worth using in mixed leagues right now, but I think he will be again soon enough. Pittsburgh - Doug Mientkiewicz has no future in Pittsburgh beyond this year, but the Pirates have started using a true platoon at third base anyway. Until that changes, Jose Bautista will be looking at two starts per week on average. It suggests that he's another player with little chance of still being around in 2009. … The Pirates are expected to activate Jack Wilson (calf) on Tuesday and send down Brian Bixler. That the team has been rotating players in and out of the two hole lately can be taken as an indication that the spot will be Wilson's to lose. He's a much better bet in NL-only leagues hitting second than he would be seventh or eighth. St. Louis - Ryan Franklin has a 2.68 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 104 innings since the beginning of last year, so there's certainly going to be no rush to replace him in the closer's role. However, Chris Perez is the long-term answer for St. Louis there and he's been dominant since being called up, allowing one hit in 4 2/3 innings. The only flaw in Perez's game is that his command will come and go. He's about as tough to hit as anyone in the NL, and he's plenty used to closing out ninth-inning leads. He needs to be owned in all NL-only leagues, and he'll be worth speculating on in mixed leagues if Franklin ever starts to stumble. … Joel Pineiro is hoping to start Saturday after being pushed back by a groin strain. Since it's doubtful that he'll go on the DL, we won't see Jaime Garcia just yet. If Pineiro can't go on Saturday, then Mike Parisi would likely come out of the pen to start. … The Cardinals dodged a bullet Saturday night when Troy Glaus checked out fine. An appendectomy likely would have cost him about three weeks. However, he was right back at third base for Sunday's game. San Diego - They decided against making the move last week, but the Padres still figure to call up Chase Headley soon. Like the Reds with Jay Bruce, they were certainly concerned about the possibility of super-two eligibility. Since that's about to ne longer be an issue, it's time to try him in left field. … With Jake Peavy (elbow) and Chris Young (nose) out indefinitely, the Padres are left with a rotation of Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Shawn Estes, Wilfredo Ledezma and probably Josh Banks. An attempt to stretch out Clay Hensley at Triple-A as he returns from shoulder surgery doesn't seem to be going very well, and the Pads have no one else pitching all that well in the rotation at Portland. They'll likely be quick to grab any interesting pitchers that become available on the waiver wire, and they might move to pick up the recently released Julian Tavarez. Even with Petco helping out, Maddux and Wolf are the only current rotation members worth using in fantasy leagues. The walks will catch up to Estes soon enough, and they already have to Ledezma. Banks is the type of pitcher Petco Park was built for, but he's still essentially a lesser version of Josh Towers. San Francisco - The Giants sent down Eugenio Velez only to put a younger player on their bench. They currently have a 23-year-old Emmanuel Burriss and a 22-year-old Travis Denker playing behind 41-year-old Omar Vizquel and 36-year-old Ray Durham. It's a bizarre setup for a rebuilding team, but if this is the way GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy want it now, who's to say they'll feel any differently in a month or two? Denker is the better bet than Burriss to eventually emerge with some fantasy value. Still, he doesn't have major league power yet and he's not a speed guy. It's doubtful that he's ready for the majors. … Having given up no more than three earned runs in any of his last four starts, Barry Zito is on the road to respectability. He should settle back in as the pitcher he was last year, when he finished with a 4.53 ERA. Too bad that's unlikely to give him every-week value on a team scoring so few runs. He's not going to be worth using with the Diamondbacks on the schedule for this week. Washington - In resisting the temptation to call up Justin Maxwell to replace Austin Kearns, who will miss 3-4 weeks after elbow surgery, the Nationals committed to using both Wily Mo Pena and Elijah Dukes as regulars for now. It was the right plan, and not just because Maxwell was limited by a wrist injury anyway. The Nats need to decide whether either Pena or Dukes will be worth going forward with in 2009. Pena especially should benefit from being an everyday player, as he seemed to after being traded to Washington last year. Dukes, who is still just 23, might be in need of additional minor league time. It's something he'd likely get if he's still struggling after Kearns is ready to play. … That the other outfielders have been even worse has helped obscure how disappointing Lastings Milledge has been, at least to those who don't own him. He went seven weeks between homers before hitting one Saturday. Especially surprising is that he's had an extremely tough time against left-handers after handling them so well last year (956 OPS in 60 at-bats). He's definitely guilty of overswinging and trying to pull outside pitches. I think his talent will win out eventually, but I feel bad now about recommending him in mixed leagues. |
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| | #148 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Colorado's Crowded DL It was a rough weekend for the Rockies, who lost Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Clint Barmes to the disabled list in the span of 48 hours. With both corner-outfield spots open, Ryan Spilborghs figures to play nearly every day, leaving Seth Smith and Scott Podsednik to essentially fight over one job. Spilborghs has hit .298/.364/.460 with 16 homers and 12 steals in 590 career plate appearances, making him a solid asset in NL-only leagues with borderline mixed-league value. Smith has just 16 plate appearances in the majors, but smacked his first MLB homer Sunday and has hit .318/.398/.523 with 23 homers and 18 steals in 174 games at Triple-A. He'll be a fine NL-only pickup if the Rockies decide to make him a quasi-starter, but the team figures to give a big chunk of the playing time Podsednik despite the fact that he hasn't slugged above .370 since 2003. Of course, even if Podsednik can't hit he still has enough speed to be a major fantasy plus. Meanwhile, with both Troy Tulowitzki and Barmes out, Omar Quintanilla is suddenly the Rockies' starting shortstop. Minimal power limits his fantasy value, but any middle infielder playing every day for the Rockies is worth grabbing in NL-only leagues and he's hit .305 in 213 career games at Triple-A. With Quintanilla needed at shortstop, Jeff Baker figures to see plenty of action at second base is also worth grabbing despite a measly .527 OPS in 72 plate appearances so far. In terms of waiver-wire priority, Spilborghs is the best bet among Rockies outfielders, followed by Podsednik and then Smith. Baker is a better pickup than Quintanilla, but both are definitely worth considering if you need middle-infield help. Also keep an eye on Ian Stewart, who could see time at second base if the Rockies get creative defensively. His prospect stock has declined some over the past couple years, but he's still hit .297 with 27 homers in 158 games at Triple-A. While the banged-up Rockies try to avoid last place with a lineup that looks nothing like the group that took the field during the World Series or even on Opening Day, here are some other notes from around baseball … * Clayton Kershaw lived up to the hype in his big-league debut Sunday, holding the Cardinals to two runs over six innings while racking up seven strikeouts. As a 20-year-old with just 14 career starts above Single-A and nearly four walks per nine innings in the minors, Kershaw will struggle with his control at times. However, he threw 69 of 102 pitches for strikes Sunday and handed out just a single walk to a lineup that leads the NL in free passes. Kershaw worked with an overpowering mid-90s fastball and knee-buckling high-70s curveball that combined to hold the Cardinals to just five hits. My guess is that sporadic command will keep him from being an immediate asset in mixed leagues, but there's no doubt that Kershaw has a chance to have sizable value in NL-only leagues right away and is a must-grab. He'll get at least two more starts to show that he should be in the majors to stay, with the Mets next up this week. * Evan Longoria has struggled to make consistent contact in his first taste of the big leagues, striking out 42 times through 40 major-league games. That works out to 155 strikeouts per 600 plate appearances, which helps explain his lowly .246 batting average. However, Longoria has provided more than enough power and plate discipline to make up for the measly batting average and rule out a return to the minors. He notched his first career two-homer game and drove in six runs Saturday, and then delivered a walk-off double in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday. Longoria has seven homers, 17 total extra-base hits, and 16 walks in 163 plate appearances, which is good for a .791 OPS that ranks seventh among all MLB third basemen. He'll always be a high-strikeout hitter, but should be able to make 10-20 percent more contact eventually, so expect the batting average to gradually rise. * Fausto Carmona coughed up a season-high six runs Friday before exiting his start after two innings with a strained left hip and the Indians placed him on the disabled list Saturday. He's expected to miss a month, but the good news is that Jake Westbrook is healthy enough to take his rotation spot Wednesday. Swapping Carmona for Westbrook also means that Daily Dose favorite Aaron Laffey remains in the rotation after pitching very well subbing for Westbrook. * As expected, Andruw Jones headed to the disabled list Sunday with torn cartilage in his knee and will be out 4-6 weeks following surgery. Jones won't be missed much after hitting .165 in 43 games, but his absence means that Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Juan Pierre will all play nearly every day. Jones has hit just .211/.304/.386 in 197 games since last season, essentially falling off a cliff once he turned 30 years old, yet the Dodgers will be paying him $18 million in 2009. AL Quick Hits: Jon Lester followed up last week's no-hitter by allowing four runs (three earned) over five innings Sunday versus the A's … Initially scheduled to return from a hamstring injury Friday, Hank Blalock is now expected to out until at least next week thanks to recently diagnosed carpal tunnel syndrome … Sunday's outing was Justin Verlander's third straight Quality Start and his velocity is back in the mid-90s after lagging behind last month … Howie Kendrick (hamstring) is slated to begin a minor-league rehab assignment by the middle of this week, but given previous setbacks there's no clear timetable for his return … With a second-inning walk Sunday, Lyle Overbay set a new Blue Jays record by reaching safely in 12 straight plate appearances … Victor Martinez rejoined the lineup Sunday after sitting out two games with a cut on his finger … Glen Perkins held the Tigers to one run over 7.1 innings Sunday and figures to remain in the rotation once Scott Baker (groin) returns … Starting Sunday for the first time since being talked up in this space last week, Daniel Cabrera struggled versus the Rays while walking more than two batters for the first time this month. NL Quick Hits: John Smoltz reported tightness in his shoulder after making his first minor-league rehab appearance Saturday, but the Braves said afterward that it wasn't a setback … Jake Peavy (elbow) is set to undergo an MRI exam Tuesday and could be cleared to begin throwing as soon as Wednesday … Called up from Triple-A after hitting .359 with 12 homers and a 1.146 OPS in 45 games, Russell Branyan could steal at-bats from Bill Hall at third base … Chipper Jones was scratched from Sunday's lineup with back spasms, but as usual figures to be day-to-day … Troy Glaus exited Saturday's game with what the Cardinals feared was appendicitis, but returned to the lineup Sunday … Aaron Cook tossed his seventh career complete game Sunday, holding the Mets to one run while inducing 16 ground-ball outs … Barring a setback Jack Wilson (calf) is set to come off the disabled list Tuesday … Corey Patterson went 0-for-8 in Sunday's marathon loss, adding fuel to the Jay Bruce fire … After starting both ends of Sunday's doubleheader, Omar Vizquel moved past Luis Aparicio to become the all-time leader in games at shortstop with 2,584. |
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| | #149 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Bruce Now, Headley Soon? Most prospect rankings had either Evan Longoria or Jay Bruce in the top spot heading into the season and both players began the year at Triple-A. Longoria's stay there lasted all of seven games and he's likely ruled out a return to the minors by hitting .246/.319/.472 through 40 games with the Rays. A more cautious timetable made some sense for Bruce because he's 18 months younger than Longoria, but the Reds have apparently decided that they can't wait any longer. Bruce is expected to be called up Tuesday after hitting .364/.393/.640 with 10 homers and 24 total extra-base hits in 49 games at Triple-A, which is amazing production for a 21-year-old. He's a special prospect who's been dominating at Triple-A and Corey Patterson is a mediocre veteran who's been hitting .201 in Cincinnati, so with the Reds in last place it makes plenty of sense to call up Bruce assuming that manager Dusty Baker gives him most of the starts in center field. Bruce spent the final two months of last season and the first two months of this season at Triple-A, hitting .334/.375/.598 with 21 homers, 49 total extra-base hits, and 10 steals in 99 total games. There's really no way to look at those numbers from a 21-year-old center fielder and avoid seeing future stardom, but Bruce's sub par strikeout-to-walk ratio over that same stretch does suggest that he may not be ready to immediately thrive against big-league pitching. He's struck out 93 times in 405 trips to the plate at Triple-A. That works out to 23 percent, which while certainly not an alarming strikeout rate is about 30 percent higher than the NL average and would make it tough for Bruce to continue posting huge batting averages in the majors. His poor walk rate is also a concern, particularly in tandem with the lack of contact. Bruce has just 27 walks in 405 plate appearances at Triple-A and even that number is misleading. Five of his free passes were intentional, which means that he's drawn a non-intentional walk in just 5.4 percent of his plate appearances for a walk rate that would be 35 percent worse than the NL average. There's no doubting Bruce's immense talent and huge long-term potential, but a 21-year-old who has 30 percent more strikeouts and 35 percent fewer walks than the NL average while playing at Triple-A is far from a sure thing to take the league by storm right away. While Bruce tries to make my prediction of good power and a sub-.275 batting average look bad, here are some other notes from around baseball … * He's not quite in Bruce's league as an all-around prospect, but with the Padres also in last place Chase Headley could be on the verge of taking over in left field. A full-time third baseman until this spring, Headley has made the switch to the outfield at Triple-A while hitting .304/.364/.536 with nine homers and 26 total extra-base hits in 47 games. He also batted .330/.437/.580 with 20 homers and 63 total extra-base hits in 121 games at Double-A last year. Headley's been particularly hot this month, going 4-for-5 with a homer Sunday to give him a .359 batting average and 1.067 OPS in May. Meanwhile, Padres left fielders have combined to hit just .227/.327/.389 with six homers and 15 RBIs through 52 games, which works out to a .716 OPS that ranks 21st at the position among MLB teams. A 24-year-old switch-hitter with power, plate discipline, and a .303 career batting average in the minors, Headley could be up by week's end. * Chad Tracy returned from the disabled list Monday and made his season debut at first base, but the Diamondbacks may give him a chance to reclaim the starting job at third base if his surgically repaired knee proves capable of handling the position. Mark Reynolds did an excellent job filling in for Tracy last season, but has hit just .225/.308/.399 in 47 games this year, striking out in 31 percent of his plate appearances while making some ugly plays defensively. Tracy started at first base Monday, but Conor Jackson clearly has that job locked up. That leaves Reynolds and Tracy fighting for playing time at third base, and a strict platoon would make plenty of sense. Tracy is a left-handed batter who has an .879 career OPS versus righties, compared to a .608 OPS versus lefties. Reynolds hasn't shown much of a split yet, but he's only 158 games into his career and most right-handed batters prove to be significantly better against southpaws. AL Quick Hits: Melky Cabrera showed surprising power by homering six times through 31 games, but has gone 12-for-66 (.182) with zero homers in 18 games since … Joba Chamberlain is expected to throw around 55 pitches in his next outing, which is slated for Wednesday … Clay Buchholz (fingernail) made his first minor-league rehab start Sunday at Triple-A, allowing one run over four innings … Mark Grudzielanek ranked second in the league with a .331 batting average through May 18, but after going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts Monday he's now 2-for-25 since then and amazingly has gone 21 straight games without driving in a run … Jorge Posada (shoulder) went 0-for-5 in an extended spring training game Monday, but logged five innings behind the plate and is hoping to return from the disabled list next Tuesday … Kevin Youkilis was scratched from the lineup Monday with a sore hand, giving Sean Casey a start at first base … Travis Buck went 4-for-5 with a double Sunday at Triple-A and has reached base 15 times over the past five games … Paul Konerko returned to the lineup Monday after sitting out three games with a hand injury, going 0-for-6 while his teammates collected 17 hits. NL Quick Hits: Brandon Webb failed to last at least five innings Monday for the first time since 2006, allowing seven runs (four earned) versus the Braves to give him back-to-back losses after beginning the season 9-0 … Chipper Jones (back) returned to the lineup Monday and went 1-for-3 with two walks atlantabraves.com … Jason Bergmann held the Brewers scoreless for 5.2 innings Monday, giving him 19.2 straight shutout innings since being recalled from Triple-A two weeks ago … Rafael Furcal (back) isn't expected to travel with the Dodgers on their upcoming road trip, making it unlikely that he'll return from the disabled list for at least another week … Derrick Turnbow has walked 15 batters over 4.2 innings since being demoted to Triple-A earlier this month, posting a 14.54 ERA and 4.62 WHIP … With the Reds' pitching staff a mess after Sunday's marathon 18-inning game, Bronson Arroyo will start Wednesday on short rest … Russell Branyan started at third base Monday for the second straight game, but went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts … Kosuke Fukudome hit .348 with 14 extra-base hits through 30 games, but after going 0-for-4 Monday he's 14-for-68 (.206) with two extra-base hits over the past 20 games. |
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| | #150 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Sheffield Finally Lands on DL Lots of good stuff to get to today, so let's skip the usual minutiae and get to the notes from around baseball … * As expected, the Reds called up top prospect Jay Bruce from Triple-A and he debuted Tuesday night versus the Pirates. Bruce going 3-for-3 with a double perhaps shouldn't be shocking given his amazing production at Triple-A, but the fact that he drew a pair of walks after coaxing a total of eight non-intentional free passes in 49 games at Louisville is certainly surprising. Of course, Pirates starter Ian Snell uncharacteristically handing out seven walks had a lot to do with it. My "good power, mediocre batting average" prediction for Bruce still stands, but obviously his debut was very impressive across the board. Interestingly, rather than cutting Corey Patterson to make room for Bruce on the roster the Reds instead designated Scott Hatteberg for assignment. Hatteberg lost his starting job to Joey Votto early on and spoke publicly about not wanting to be a pinch-hitter, but can still help plenty of teams in a part-time role and may still have fantasy value. * With Garrett Atkins returning to the lineup at third base Tuesday and the middle infield in flux thanks to multiple injuries, the Rockies decided to get creative by starting Ian Stewart at second base. There was some talk this spring about Stewart getting a chance at second base, but those plans were quickly abandoned when Jayson Nix claimed the starting job. Nix predictably flamed out, but the Rockies continued to play Stewart at third base full time at Triple-A. Stewart figures to be very stretched defensively at second base and his seeing zero action there in the minors suggests that the Rockies are improvising on the fly now. With that said, Jeff Baker is also no great shakes as a middle infielder and Stewart does have enough offensive potential to make a positive impact even if he's giving away runs with his glove. He's hit .297/.377/.518 with 27 homers and 17 steals in 158 games at Triple-A, making him a must-grab in NL-only leagues. * Gary Sheffield has batted just .192 with five homers in 80 games since injuring his shoulder last July, including .213 with three homers in 39 games this season while dealing with an assortment of injuries. He finally headed to the disabled list Tuesday with a strained oblique and will miss at least two weeks, but could easily be sidelined for most of June given all the physical problems that he's had since beginning last season by hitting .306/.410/.563 through 91 games. Jeff Larish was called up from Triple-A to replace Sheffield on the roster and should get a chance to play regularly at designated hitter versus right-handed pitching. Larish is 25 years old and has hit .265/.385/.508 in over 1,400 plate appearances in the minors, including .274/.369/.589 with 16 homers in 52 games at Triple-A. He strikes out a lot and won't hit for a good batting average, but should provide enough pop to be a worthwhile option in AL-only leagues. * Because of lingering hamstring problems Eric Byrnes has clearly been playing at far less than full strength for a while now, hitting .143 while attempting just two steals over the past month. He showed some signs of life Sunday, smacking a grand slam off Tom Glavine and walking twice, but the Diamondbacks decided to place him on the disabled list Tuesday. Jeff Salazar and Chris Burke figure to platoon in left field until Byrnes comes back, making Salazar a nice NL-only grab. * Josh Hamilton drove in five runs Tuesday versus the Rays, extending his MLB-leading RBI total to 58 with an eighth-inning grand slam against the team that drafted him No. 1 overall in 1999. Hamilton now has 582 career plate appearances spread over 143 games, hitting .308/.369/.574 with 32 homers, 69 total extra-base hits, and 105 RBIs. This season he ranks either first, second, or third among AL hitters in batting average, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, and OPS. AL Quick Hits: Manager Terry Francona indicated Monday that Clay Buchholz (fingernail) might remain at Triple-A for a while, but Daisuke Matsuzaka leaving Tuesday's start with a shoulder problem could change that … Travis Hafner (shoulder) was scratched from Tuesday's lineup and is expected to sit out Wednesday, so a trip to the disabled list could be coming … Hank Blalock got a cortisone shot Tuesday, but doesn't appear on the verge of returning from carpal tunnel syndrome … Ian Kennedy left Tuesday's start with a strained lat, which may speed Joba Chamberlain's transition to the rotation … Playing on his 40th birthday, Frank Thomas exited Tuesday's game with a strained quadriceps … David Eckstein (hip) came off the shelf Tuesday, but is expected to sit out Wednesday's game as part of the Blue Jays' plan to give him regular rest … Carlos Quentin left Tuesday's game after fouling a ball off his protective cup, but appears to have avoided disaster … Manny Ramirez took Miguel Batista deep Tuesday for his 499th career homer … Daily Dose favorite Aaron Laffey turned in another strong outing Tuesday, beating the White Sox while slicing his ERA to 1.59. NL Quick Hits: Hunter Pence hit just .250 with one homer in April, but after five hits Tuesday he's batting .378 with six homers this month … Adrian Gonzalez smacked his 15th homer Tuesday, while the rest of the Padres have combined for 30 long balls … Asked about Chad Tracy's return from the disabled list, manager Bob Melvin called Mark Reynolds "our third baseman" and said that Tracy provides "thunder off the bench" … Bengie Molina went 2-for-5 with a three-run homer Tuesday, giving him 14 hits and 12 RBIs over the past six games … Shawn Chacon had zero decisions through his first nine starts, but won Tuesday for the second straight outing … Justin Upton went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts Tuesday, making him 0-for-24 with 17 strikeouts over his last seven games … Despite missing his last start with elbow soreness, Shawn Hill was allowed to throw 112 pitches while struggling through five innings Tuesday … Jeff Kent was scratched from Tuesday's lineup with back spasms, giving Chin-Lung Hu a start at second base … Albert Pujols had a season-high four hits Tuesday and is hitting .360 with a .483 on-base percentage. |
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| | #151 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Prospects: Terrific Twosome The class of callups won't ever get much better than what we see this week, so rather than me ranting about a poor big league decision or giddily raving about the upcoming MLB draft, let's get right into the column. Major League Callups Josh Banks – RHP Padres – A second round pick by the Blue Jays out of Florida International in 2003, Banks got off to a great start in his professional career by posting a 2.13 ERA and an incredible 141/18 K/BB in 126 2/3 innings split between the New York-Penn League and the High-A Florida State League. That he gave up 107 hits, including just five homers, was also a plus for Banks, especially considering scouts questioned how his stuff would play at higher levels. Unfortunately for the Jays, those concerns have proven true as Banks has typically struggled since reaching Double-A. Banks was hit hard at Double-A New Hampshire his first time around in 2004, but he bounced back with a solid season in 2005 by posting a 3.83 ERA and 145/11 K/BB. That wasn't nearly as good as in the lower minors, largely because he gave up almost a hit per inning, including 18 homers. Still, Banks was just 22 and had some promise. However, Banks was quite poor in Triple-A in both 2006 and 2007, posting a combined 4.90 ERA while yielding 57 homers. His command is still excellent, but Banks has had trouble striking out more advanced hitters. His splitter is a nice pitch he'll use to get hitters to chase, but his high-80s fastball and three uninspiring secondary offerings are all quite hittable. And since he's always around the plate with them, hitters can pick a pitch and look to tee-off, especially in counts that favor hitters. While it's fun to root for a control artist like Banks, the odds are against him succeeding. He'll replace Chris Young in the Padres' rotation for now, and playing half his games at Petco Park will be as good a fit as he'll ever find. Maybe he'll be a player NL-only leaguers can use when he's at home against non-elite offenses, but Banks was getting knocked around in Triple-A before his callup and he's always going to be a very risky option. Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues. Jay Bruce – OF Reds – It's not often the game's best prospect gets called to the majors, and that rumbling sound you hear is every fantasy owner stampeding to their waiver wire to see if he's available. In most leagues he's going to have been stashed away since this spring, but he's also been dropped in some leagues while others don't allow for minor league pickups. Throw in the fact that I'm already receiving e-mails asking what his trade value is, and Bruce's callup is still worth a deep look. The 12th pick in the 2005 draft, Bruce showed excellent power potential in Rookie ball immediately after signing. He predictably opened the 2006 campaign at Single-A Dayton, and the Reds decided to play it conservative and keep him there all season despite good production. Bruce hit an impressive .291/.355/.516 with a solid 106/44 K/BB, but what was most impressive was that he hit a whopping 63 extra-base hits in 444 at-bats. Only 15 of them were homers, but Bruce was so young and had such a quick, powerful stroke that he oozed the potential to drive more over the fence as he filled out. The 6'3", 210-pound left-hander seemed poised for an excellent 2007 campaign, yet he still managed to exceed expectations. Bruce started the season at High-A for 67 games, spent just 16 games in Double-A, and finished the season with 50 games for Triple-A Louisville. The quick advancement was made possible by his excellent productivity, as Bruce posted a .319/.375/.587 line overall with an OPS no less than 925 at each level. Included in that excellent season was 26 homers, 8 triples, and 46 doubles in 511 at-bats, giving him a fantastic extra-base hit percentage of greater than 15%. Still just 20 years old, it wasn't hard to fathom Bruce continuing to add power and delivering even more balls over the fence. The Reds gave Bruce a chance to earn the center field job this spring, but he was sent to the minors with Corey Patterson on the roster. Bruce did struggle some early in April, and since the Reds aren't contenders anyway there was little harm in delaying his arbitration clock. The left-hander eventually turned things around in April and is now on fire in May, giving him a .364/.393/.630 line overall. The only chink in Bruce's armor is his strikeouts. He was punched out 135 times last season, and was already at 45 in 49 games this season. While he's not a .360 hitter, Bruce squares the bat on the ball so well and with such force that he should be forecasted to beat his expected batting average based on those strikeouts. In fact, he's always managed such high BABIPs that I wouldn't be surprised if he hit .300 as a rookie even while striking out so often, much like how Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence did last season. With super-two concerns behind them, Bruce should be up in the major leagues for good. He'll take Corey Patterson's job in center field, and since he's adept at handling left-handed pitching there shouldn't be any reason to platoon him. Maybe he'll hit .260 with good power and a handful of steals, but Bruce may well be the best player in the majors at some point during his career and the absolute elite level players sometimes translate right away. As a result, a .300-20-60 type of debut can't be ruled out. With a talent this good, I frankly wouldn't be looking to deal him, even if I was set at outfield. If he blows up, you'll get more by waiting. If he doesn't, you were already set at outfield. Give him a month or two and re-evaluate. Either way, he needs to be owned in all leagues. Recommendation: Unless it's a fantasy golf league, he needs to be bid on aggressively. Nick Evans – 1B Mets – The 5th ranked prospect in a weak Mets' farm system entering the season, Evans was drafted in the fifth round out of a Phoenix High School in 2004. The 6'3", 210-pound right-hander showed flashes of power potential in the low minors, but he struggled with strikeouts and keeping his batting average respectable. That changed in the Florida State League last season when Evans hit .286/.374/.476 at the age of 21. His 15 homers and 25 doubles in just 103 games boded well for power potential, and his discipline improved all the way to a nifty 64/53 K/BB. At this point Evans projected to be a platoon player versus left-handers, but if he could keep his plate discipline in tact and add more power in Double-A a role as a solid everyday player was possible. newyorkmets.com Up to Double-A Binghamton to begin 2008, Evans got off to an excellent start with a .296/.359/.556 line that included eight doubles, five triples, and eight homers in 162 at-bats. His strikeout and walk ratios are more in line with his pre-2007 performance than last season's, but they're still improved considering he's at a higher level. With Moises Alou on the disabled list for at least a couple of weeks and Angel Pagan not close to returning, Evans will get some time in the outfield. He'll start primarily against left-handers, but he has enough power to maintain value while starting three or four times per week. Once the two outfielders return, Evans could settle in as Carlos Delgado's platoon partner at first. He's not a good enough prospect to stash away in keeper leagues, but he's worth watching for now. Recommendation: Claim in NL-only leagues. Clayton Kershaw – LHP Dodgers – What are the odds that Bruce, the number one prospect in baseball, and Kershaw, the number two prospect, would be called up in the same week? And in both cases, the player earned the promotion with dominant minor league performances and pushed a non-injured player to the side. Neither Chan Ho Park nor Corey Patterson justified stopping the respective minor league studs, but it's still an interesting parallel. The Dodgers and now Assistant General Manager of Scouting Logan White have always favored high school players they could mold, and they were ecstatic to get Kershaw with the seventh pick in the 2006 draft. Though he had command issues in high school and was mostly a two-pitch pitcher, Kershaw's upside was unlimited with a fastball that routinely hit the mid-90s from the left side to go with a tremendous curve. He absolutely dominated Rookie ball after signing, with a whopping 54/5 K/BB in just 37 innings. Moved up to Single-A Great Lakes to start 2007, Kershaw continued his excellence with a 2.27 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 97 1/3 innings. That he walked 50 batters was concerning, but he was just 19 and his stuff was superb. The Dodgers decided to challenge Kershaw after his Single-A success, and promoted him up to Double-A Jacksonville for five starts at the end of the year. Kershaw continued to strike out batters in bunches, but more advanced hitters were able to lay off Kershaw's sometimes inconsistent offerings. Back at Jacksonville to begin 2008, Kershaw looked better with a 2.28 ERA and 47/15 K/BB in 43 1/3 innings. He was particularly strong against left-handers, allowing no extra-base hits and striking out 19 in 44 at-bats before his callup. Kershaw is a big, 6'3", 220-pound left-hander, and with good mechanics he can consistently hit the mid-90s. His arm absolutely explodes in his delivery, which helps him generate such impressive heat. He'll probably sit more at 92-94 while trying to work deeper into games, but the 96 MPH heat is there when he needs it. His curveball is the best in the minors and is an absolute knee-buckler while sitting 20 MPH or more slower than his fastball. Kershaw's changeup has also made progress, and he uses it well of his fastball. That his delivery and thus command aren't exactly as consistent as you'd like them is a concern, but his pitches are so filthy it hardly matters in terms of succeeding. Whether that will lead to injury concerns is another matter, however. Kershaw held the Cardinals to two runs while striking out seven in six innings in his debut on Sunday. He'll remain in the rotation at least until Jason Schmidt returns in mid-June. If there's no other opening, Kershaw could be sent back to the minors to help converse his arm and limit his innings. Since he's no lock to remain in the majors for the rest of the season and he's not yet efficient enough to pitch deep into games, there's some downside here. However, while pitching, there's every reason to believe Kershaw will be very successful, even at the age of 20. That means he needs to be pursued aggressively in all leagues. It wouldn't be shocking to see him post a 3.00 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. Bruce is the better target because he's a hitter and has more job security, but Kershaw isn't all that far behind. Recommendation: Hardcore fans wouldn't disparage you for giving up your first born child, and Kershaw could be worth it. Pursue aggressively in all leagues. Seth Smith – OF Rockies – A second round pick out of Mississippi in 2004, Smith has been an underrated prospect while continually hitting in the minor leagues. The 6'3", 220-pound left-hander has a career .312/.378/.504 line in the minors, and he's never posted an OPS below 812 at any level. More of a doubles hitter than a pure home run threat, Smith is a professional hitter and has 20-homer, 35-double potential if he were ever given 500 at-bats. That he's already 25 and isn't a strong defender limits his upside, but he's still capable of helping plenty of big league clubs. Throw in Coors Field and he's a very intriguing fantasy bet. Smith was off to an even better start than normal in Triple-A, recording similar batting average and power numbers but also a career-best 31/34 K/BB ratio. He also had 11 steals, though he isn't more than an average runner for a corner outfielder. With Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday on the disabled list, Smith will battle Scott Podsednik and Ryan Spilborghs for playing time. Smith has struggled against left-handers in the past, so expect him to start almost all games against right-handers. That's been the case so far, as he's started all four of the club's games since being promoted. He's someone the club could look to trade later in the year or this winter, but he'll have a good deal of value in NL-only leagues for at least the next two weeks. An opportunity with a club that wasn't loaded with outfielders would make him more intriguing for the long-term. Recommendation: Claim in NL-only leagues. Ian Stewart – 3B Rockies – I wrote about Stewart in last week's column, ranking him the 8th biggest riser among minor leaguers in the early season. In short, Stewart has rehabilitated his stock as an elite prospect by performing like one. While he was merely good in the hitter-friendly Colorado Springs environment last season, Stewart was off to an excellent start with a .281/.374/.614 mark that included 12 homers. He hit just 15 homers in 66 additional games in 2007, so the improvement is dramatic. That Stewart is striking out a bit more than normal is concerning, but it's a healthy increase given that he's trying, and succeeding, to drive the ball more. With his groundball percentage decreasing from 51 percent last year to 33 percent this season, it's pretty clear he's making a conscious tradeoff. Still just 23 years old, the 6'3", left-handed hitting Stewart can still be regarded as a very good prospect. He probably won't be a true All-Star as it looked like he would after his 2004 season, but he can still be an above average regular. Now in the majors replacing Clint Barmes, Stewart was surprisingly given a start at second base tonight. Normally a third basemen, the Rockies experimented with Stewart at second this spring and decided against it. He was back to playing third base for Colorado Springs, but now the Rockies are suddenly reversing course again. They might as well, since the club is going to have to repeat last season's magic just to sniff the post-season. Stewart probably isn't a long-term option there, but the Rockies could stick him there for a year and see how his defense progresses. The move would boost his fantasy stock considerably, and though it's unlikely to remain for too long, it makes him more attractive in keeper leagues for the moment. With 25-homer power, Stewart is a must claim in NL-only one-year and keeper leagues. He'd even be worth putting in a substantial bid in mixed one-year and keeper formats if the move to second sticks, so feel free to speculate here. Recommendation: Claim in all NL-only leagues; speculate on in mixed leagues. |
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| | #152 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The need for speed Memorial Day weekend is the time when millions of Americans celebrate the need for speed on the racetrack. So what better time for fantasy baseball owners to celebrate the need for speed on the basepaths? Stolen bases account for about 25% of a team's offensive output (less in points leagues), but reliable speed merchants are an important component of any successful fantasy team, especially if they can contribute in other areas. That's why many baseball experts owe an apology to Juan Pierre of the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the signing of free agent Andruw Jones, it was almost a foregone conclusion that Pierre would end up being little more than a fourth outfielder because he has no power and isn't a great defender. But one thing Pierre does have is speed. It's helped him steal 35 or more bases and score 85 or more runs in each of the last seven seasons. Despite losing playing time to youngsters Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, Pierre is stealing bases with even more regularity this season. His 19 thefts (through Monday) are tied for second in the National League and put him on pace for a career-high 68. With a career batting average above .300 and an uncanny ability to stay healthy (until this season he had played in 434 consecutive games), Pierre is still a fantasy asset — and, most likely, a fantasy bargain this season. If your team is lagging in steals, is Pierre a good trade target? Possibly, but it depends on what else your team needs. Quick pickups In Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, he uses a statistic called stolen-base opportunity percentage (SBO), which is a rough approximation of how often a baserunner attempts to steal when he has the chance. In 2007, the SBO leaders were Jose Reyes (47%), Carlos Gomez (45%), Carl Crawford (43%), Rajai Davis (43%) and Corey Patterson (41%). This season, Pierre and several other players are running even more frequently. Houston's Michael Bourn leads the majors in SBO at 54%, followed closely by Colorado's Willy Taveras at 51% and Pierre at 48%. Not surprisingly, they're also 1-2-3 in the National League in steals. But there are some others who could contribute at a bargain price. Jerry Hairston is getting extended playing time in Cincinnati while Jeff Keppinger is out. Hairston's 53% SBO indicates he could be a solid short-term addition. With Corey Patterson's anemic .242 on-base percentage, Hairston could be frequently hitting at the top of the order. If Rajai Davis could only get more playing time for Oakland, he could make a huge difference in its offense. Davis has eight steals and the highest SBO in the majors this season at 75%, but a .200 average and .222 OBP keep him glued to the bench. If you can stash him on yours, it could pay off later. Meanwhile, Scott Podsednik could see more action in the Colorado outfield with Brad Hawpe on the disabled list. Injuries slowed him last season, but Podsednik had between 40 and 70 steals from 2003 to 2006. Trade targets If you're simply looking to race your way into contention and add to your steals numbers without giving up a roster spot, here are some speedy guys who can possibly help you in other categories: * Checkered flag Jose Reyes, Mets: After racking up 78 steals a year ago, he has 15 in 2008. One reason is his 75% success rate. Another is his 38% SBO — down considerably from 48% last season. Expect both to increase. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: He is 14-for-14 in steals this season and leads the American League in runs. Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano and Brian Roberts might get more attention, but there's no better second baseman in AL-only leagues — including 2B-eligible B.J. Upton. Lance Berkman, Astros: The leading candidate for National League MVP has done everything well, but what's helped make him so valuable in fantasy leagues is his career-high 10 stolen bases. For someone with that many combined over the last two seasons, Berkman is the man. If he's on your roster, count your blessings. * Green flag Juan Pierre, Dodgers: The injury to Jones will guarantee Pierre full-time status for at least the next month. There's no reason to think he won't continue to run and run some more. Look for an uptick in batting average and runs too. Chris Young, Diamondbacks: Where did all his steals go? After swiping 27 last season, he has four in 2008. With a much-improved offense, Arizona hasn't needed to rely on the running game as much as it did last season. Young still has the speed, and he's improved his batting average and on-base percentage from last season. * Yellow flag Ryan Theriot, Cubs: In leagues where net steals are counted, he's not much of an asset because he has been successful nine times but has been caught eight others. Joey Gathright, Royals: One of the fastest players in the majors, his SBO of 43% is one of the AL's best. However, he isn't getting on base often enough to make a major difference (just seven walks), and he rarely drives in any runs. * Red flag Eugenio Velez, Giants: He stole nearly 100 bases over the last two minor league seasons but hasn't been anywhere near as successful in the majors (eight steals in 13 attempts). San Francisco sent him to Class AAA last week but still thinks he can help the team later in the year. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies: (I couldn't resist.) Perhaps the worst baserunner in the game, he's 0-for-4 in steal attempts. In more than 100 at-bats, he's scored only five runs — and two of those were when he was able to trot leisurely around the bases on a home run. Too often on draft day, securing stolen bases is an all-or-nothing proposition — fantasy owners either pay top dollar for a pure speed guy or forget about the category altogether. However, it's much more efficient to target guys such as Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Corey Hart, who will number double-digit steals and contribute in other categories. |
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| | #153 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| On a powerful pace Carlos Quentin leads the American League with 14 home runs. Coming into the 2008 season, BaseballHQ.com projected Quentin to hit 14 home runs for the entire year. It's not often that a projection is completely invalidated before the end of May. The expectation was in part due to the uncertainty after his offseason shoulder surgery. It was also due to his lack of a track record and questions about playing time in the White Sox outfield. There are fewer questions now that he's put himself on a 40-plus homer pace. But is it real? The power is real, but the pace is probably not sustainable. As a "rookie" in the American League, most opposing pitchers have not had a second shot at him. BaseballHQ.com's projection update has him now hitting 28 for the year. Quentin is not the only unfamiliar name among each league's power leaders. Ryan Ludwick hit 14 homers in only 303 at-bats for the Cardinals last year but has already hit 13 in 2008. Once considered a top prospect, he is now a journeyman at 29. Still, batting power tends to peak around age 30, and he has secured playing time in the St. Louis outfield. He could hit 30 this year. Nate McLouth had to battle to win the centerfield job in Pittsburgh. His 12 homers currently put him in the top 10 of NL power hitters, an odd place given his value had always been as a stolen-base threat. He is more likely to see a drop in his home run pace and is more of a threat to see 20-20 than his current pace of 35-15. Perhaps more interesting than the new names on the leaderboard are the old names nowhere near the top. For the past four years, Victor Martinez has been among the elite catchers and could be counted on for about 20 or more home runs. Having yet to homer eight weeks into 2008 is troubling, but his peripherals hold a clue. Martinez's ground ball rate is up to 50%, about 8% more than last year; his fly ball rate is down to 22%, 16% less than last year. It is nearly unheard of, but he has also been hitting more line drives (28%) than fly balls, which explains his no-power, high average output. We still expect him to hit at least a dozen. J.J. Hardy hit 26 homers last year, but his decline this season should not have been unforeseen. In 2007, his first full season exposure, he hit 18 of his home runs in the first half but only eight in the second half. That is called being overexposed. B.J. Upton hit 24 homers last year but is currently on pace for fewer than 10. Part of the reason is his near-50% ground ball rate. Upton hit 15 of his 24 in the second half last year, so he could still warm up. We project him for 14 homers and 30 steals. Alex Rios usually gets off to fast starts and fades, which makes his three homers thus far of more concern. Here, too, he is hitting far more ground balls than fly balls in 2008, an 8% swing from last year. We are only projecting 15 homers this year. This shift is prevalent in several power strugglers, including Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder. And finally, there are all the current DL denizens and active hobblers, whose meager power numbers may or may not be the result of their injuries. It remains to be seen whether players such as Andruw Jones or Brad Hawpe can return to former power levels once they come off the DL, or whether Carlos Beltran will ever get healthy. atlantabraves.com |
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| | #154 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Guillen's pain in the ... Sure, Carlos Guillen will make $10 million this year and gets to play baseball for a living, but he also has a job that encourages his boss to literally alert the media when "he's got hemorrhoids so bad." That was my favorite part of manager Jim Leyland's quote Tuesday when explaining why Guillen was limited to designated hitter duties, and he added that the Tigers' third baseman "has been playing with hemorrhoids that probably need to be lanced" and "can hardly move." Guillen was a popular topic across all forms of media Wednesday and was then absent from the Tigers' lineup against the Angels, guaranteeing another batch of hemorrhoid-related updates from the local newspaper scribes. Aside from professional athlete, is there another job where having medical problems like hemorrhoids (Guillen) or anal fissures (Kaz Matsui) more or less requires a person's boss to give daily updates to reporters? If so, hopefully they're making $10 million too. While the world learns far more than it wanted to know about Guillen, here are some other notes from around baseball … * Pedro Martinez had a successful minor-league rehab start Wednesday at Single-A, allowing two runs over six innings while striking out six, walking none, and giving up four hits. Martinez threw 82 pitches, so barring a setback he appears to be on track to rejoin the Mets' rotation with a start Tuesday against the Giants. "I'm really excited," Martinez said. "I know the team really needs a little bit of a pat on the back and I hope my presence will make a difference for them." * With Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada on the disabled list Jesus Flores has made the most of his first real chance at regular playing time behind the plate in Washington. After holding his own while playing sparingly as a Rule 5 pickup last season, Flores is now staking claim to the starting job even once Lo Duca returns next month. He went 2-for-4 with a grand slam Wednesday and is hitting .344/.420/.590 with 11 extra-base hits and 14 RBIs through 20 games. General manager Jim Bowden hinted earlier this month that Flores may keep the gig regardless of Lo Duca's health status, and by going 9-for-23 (.391) with a homer, three doubles, and seven RBIs over the past week he's improved his stock even further. Flores hit .266/.335/.487 with 21 homers at high Single-A as a 21-year-old in 2006 before his timetable was rushed by the Rule 5 selection and a 23-year-old catcher with a .757 OPS in 98 big-league games has a nice future. * Travis Hafner saw his OPS drop 260 points last season and has hit just .217/.326/.360 this year, so Wednesday's news that he's received two cortisone shots for a sore shoulder made plenty of sense. Hafner revealed that he's been playing through soreness and weakness in the shoulder all season, which helps explain his lack of power and overall struggles. He hasn't played since Sunday, so a trip to the disabled list seems likely and would open up at-bats for Michael Aubrey. * Left for dead after hitting just .236/.356/.433 last season while being limited to 83 games, Jason Giambi is quietly putting together a strong comeback. He smacked his 11th homer of the season Wednesday and is now hitting .244/.393/.556 through 44 games. A .244 batting average limits Giambi's fantasy value, but his .949 OPS ranks fourth in the league behind only Milton Bradley, Carlos Quentin, and Josh Hamilton, and he's on pace for 40 homers, 100 RBIs, and 85 runs. * One thing that has separated Rich Harden from Mark Prior throughout their similarly lengthy injury histories is that Harden has always pitched well whenever he's healthy enough to take the mound. Prior went 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA in 2006, but Harden has never ceased being a dominant pitcher between trips to the disabled list. He held the Blue Jays to one run over seven innings in a tough-luck no-decision Wednesday, giving him a 2.60 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. * Adam Miller emerged as an elite prospect in 2006, posting a 2.75 ERA and 157-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 154 innings at Double-A as a 21-year-old. Unfortunately, he was limited to 65.1 innings last year because of finger and elbow injuries, and recently underwent surgery to reattach the flexor tendon in the middle finger of his right hand. The bad news is that Miller will likely miss the remainder of the season. The good news is that he'll still be just 24 years old next season. AL Quick Hits: Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder) has avoided the disabled list so far, but will almost surely miss at least one start and is scheduled to undergo an MRI … Manager John McLaren said Wednesday that Brandon Morrow is unlikely to move into the rotation this season … Boof Bonser is 6-17 with a 6.02 ERA over his last 30 starts and looks bullpen bound once Scott Baker (groin) comes back next week … With Gregg Zaun (elbow) heading to the DL, Rod Barajas will get most of Toronto's starts behind the plate for at least two weeks … Jake Westbrook (ribs) started Wednesday against the White Sox after sitting out more than a month, allowing three runs over five innings … Rocco Baldelli (leg) worked out prior to Tuesday's game and said afterward that he's still hoping to play this season … Erik Bedard shut out the Red Sox for seven innings Wednesday in his best start since joining the Mariners … Andy Marte is receiving increased playing time so that the Indians can evaluate him in preparation for the roster crunch created by Shin-Soo Choo's (shoulder) impending return. NL Quick Hits: Rafael Soriano (shoulder) returned from the disabled list Wednesday, potentially giving him a brief window for saves until John Smoltz (shoulder) comes off the shelf … Jake Peavy (elbow) said Tuesday that he hopes to rejoin the Padres' rotation this weekend, but that looks unlikely given that he hasn't even thrown off a mound yet … Jay Bruce followed up his huge debut with another impressive effort Wednesday and has four walks in two games after coaxing a total of eight non-intentional walks in 49 games at Triple-A … Meanwhile, perhaps fearing that manager Dusty Baker would be tempted to start him over Bruce, the Reds sent Corey Patterson to the minors Wednesday … Matt Holliday (hamstring) said Tuesday that he's hoping to return from the DL when eligible on June 10 … Carlos Zambrano tossed eight innings of one-run ball Wednesday versus the Dodgers, but threw 130 pitches … Tom Gorzelanny couldn't make it out of the first inning Wednesday, coughing up six runs to the Reds while his ERA ballooned to 7.38. |
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| | #155 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Bye Bye Billy If you haven't yet seen the footage Mariah Carey throwing out the first pitch at a game in Japan this week, do yourself a big favor and check out the video. Seriously, it'll make your day for about a dozen different reasons. While you consider how tough it must be to throw a strike in gigantic high heels and short shorts, here are some notes from around baseball … * Billy Butler was one of my favorite breakout candidates heading into the season, but his inability to show any power convinced the Royals that he needs more time at Triple-A. It's an odd move on a number of levels, because Kansas City is in last place, Butler hit .263 with a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio despite the lack of pop, and the 22-year-old seemingly has nothing left to prove in the minors after hitting .336/.416/.561 in 369 career games down on the farm. Last season Alex Gordon got off to a much worse start than Butler, hitting just .185 through the end of May, but the Royals showed patience and he hit .275/.320/.461 over the final four months. Butler would have been capable of a similar turnaround, but instead he'll go beat up on Triple-A pitchers while mediocre bats like Ross Gload and Joey Gathright pick up additional playing time. Butler remains an excellent long-term bet, so keeper leaguers should be looking to buy low. * While Butler managing just one homer got him sent back to Triple-A, Delmon Young failing to homer even once through 52 games merely got him benched Thursday. Young has been a mess both offensively and defensively, making several huge mistakes in left field this week while in the midst of a 1-for-23 slump at the plate. Not only is his .258/.319/.328 hitting line slightly worse than Butler's .263/.330/.339 mark, Butler beat him by 70 points of OPS last season. Minnesota traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to get Young from the Rays and spent the winter talking him up as the replacement for Torii Hunter's power in the middle of the lineup, so they likely have too much invested in him quickly turning things around to even consider a return to the minors. Meanwhile, Garza is 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA in Tampa Bay after striking out 10 batters over eight innings of two-run ball Wednesday against the Rangers. * Frank Thomas has hit .319/.417/.516 in 28 games since signing with the A's, but making the Blue Jays look foolish for cutting him loose will now be put on hold by a strained quadriceps that sent him to the disabled list Thursday. To replace Thomas on the roster, the A's activated Eric Chavez from the DL earlier than expected, apparently feeling that he's healthy enough after going 11-for-30 (.367) with two homers during a nine-game minor-league rehab assignment. Chavez is slated to be worked back into the defensive mix gradually, starting two games at third base and then shifting to designated hitter for one game. Along with Chavez, Mike Sweeney also figures to see action at DH while Thomas is out. For now Travis Buck will remain in the minors, but he'll be a natural call-up if Chavez stays healthy enough to consistently man the hot corner and Thomas looks likely to miss significant time. Buck is hitting .345 in 23 games at Triple-A. * Troy Percival appeared to have suffered a severe injury Wednesday when he collapsed on the mound after throwing a pitch, but an MRI revealed no more than a strained hamstring. He's been placed on the disabled list, but team president Andrew Friedman indicated Thursday that Percival will be able to return after the minimum 15 days. Dan Wheeler is now the favorite for saves in Tampa Bay, although Al Reyes could also work his way into the ninth-inning mix. * Jarrod Washburn whined publicly about Kenji Johjima's pitch-calling, so Jamie Burke caught him last week against Detroit and Washburn coughed up nine runs. He was so bad that the Mariners are now skipping Washburn's scheduled start against the Tigers this weekend, instead pushing him back to face the Angels next week. Even that reportedly didn't sit well with him, because Washburn apparently isn't comfortable pitching after another left-hander in the rotation. To recap: Washburn talked the team into replacing Johjima with Burke as his catcher, the rotation is being juggled to provide him with more favorable matchups, and he's not pleased with having to follow fellow southpaw Erik Bedard. Meanwhile, Washburn sports a 6.54 ERA and has gone 20-35 since signing a four-year, $37.5 million deal with the Mariners. His average fastball velocity is down to 86.9 miles per hour and he's thrown nearly 50 percent non-fastballs so far this season. AL Quick Hits: Jorge Posada (shoulder) wasn't able to make throws during Thursday's extended spring training game, likely pushing his expected return next week back a couple days … Carlos Gomez was caught stealing twice Thursday, but went 4-for-5 at the plate … Jesse Litsch tossed a complete-game shutout Saturday versus the Royals and turned in seven more scoreless frames Thursday against the A's, finishing May at 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA … Seattle is said to be interested in Scott Hatteberg, who could format a natural platoon at first base with Richie Sexson … Willy Aybar returned from the disabled list Thursday, but lost the starting job at third base to Evan Longoria a long time ago … Aaron Hill left Thursday's game in the seventh inning following a collision with David Eckstein … Jason Bartlett swiped three bases Thursday after totaling seven steals through 49 games … Manager Jim Leyland said Wednesday that Curtis Granderson will be in the lineup against left-handers more often going forward despite an ugly .203/.264/.362 career line against them. NL Quick Hits: An MRI exam Thursday revealed that Matt Diaz has a partially torn PCL in his left knee, which likely means 4-6 weeks on the sidelines … Manager Bud Black said Thursday that Jake Peavy (elbow) could return from the disabled list without a minor-league rehab assignment, but first he'll have to avoid a setback during Sunday's scheduled mound session … Brad Penny went 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA in April, but after Thursday's loss to the Mets he ends May at 1-4 with an 8.82 ERA … Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder) sat out a fourth straight game Thursday and his return timetable remains unclear … Starting Thursday for the first time since racking up nine strikeouts in four shutout innings of relief last week, Aaron Harang lasted just four innings against the Pirates while allowing six runs on 10 hits … David Wright went deep twice Thursday, putting him on a 35-homer, 125-RBI pace through 52 games … According to the Miami Herald, Josh Willingham (back) "is still a long way from returning" … Manager Joe Torre indicated Wednesday that Andy LaRoche could be on the verge of being called up from Triple-A. newyorkmets.com |
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| | #156 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Baseball's creepy Uncle Jason Jason Giambi has become major league baseball's creepy uncle. He moved in with the Yankees seven seasons ago, and the team hasn't been able to get rid of him since. He's overcome his drug problem, but his penchant for cross-dressing makes him someone to keep the kids away from. He sweats profusely, and now that he's growing a mustache, the transformation is into sleazy uncle is complete. The Yankees are forced to support Giambi, giving him an undeserved $23 million this season. It's clear that his 2009 option won't be picked up, so Uncle Jason knows that the end of this gravy train is close. In recent weeks he's shown that he might be pulling himself together. Giambi and other options are all discussed in this week's Waiver Wired. American League 1. Dan Wheeler/Al Reyes – RP – TB - Old man Percival is on the disabled list for at least two weeks, and Dan Wheeler and Al Reyes are the two candidates to assume closing duties in the meantime. Wheeler has been used in more high-pressure situations so far this year, so he's the favorite to see more save opportunities while Percival is out. Even though the current stint as closer will likely be short, the 38-year-old Percival is a prime injury candidate, so Wheeler makes a solid investment, even in mixed leagues. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 2. Jesse Litsch – SP – TOR - Litsch has been discussed in this space before, but it's worth mentioning that a guy available in almost 2/3rds of fantasy leagues has gone 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the month of May. He's already tallied seven wins, and while his strikeout totals won't inspire, he shouldn't be languishing on the waiver wire. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 3. Aaron Laffey – SP – CLE - Laffey has also been mentioned in this space, but with Fausto Carmona going on the disabled list, he'll get another month to prove he belongs in the majors. Laffey seems to have harnessed his control, and with a 1.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, he's clearly worth using in the right situation. Unfortunately, his next two starts come against Texas and Detroit, two of the top three offenses in terms of runs scored. His ERA has been helped by a lucky BABIP against him, but he should be a solid contributor for as long as he's in the Indians' rotation. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 4. Jose Contreras – SP – CHW - Contreras has certainly out-pitched expectations early this season, and his 3.06 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are key reasons that the White Sox are currently sitting in first place in their division. Contreras says he's healthy after dealing with nagging injuries all last season, and his 10-strikeout performance against the Angels on Sunday has gotten him plenty of attention in fantasy leagues. He's worth grabbing and using for as long as the resurgence lasts. That could be all season. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues 5. Jason Giambi – 1B – NYY - After a dismal April, Giambi has hit .339 with six homers so far in May. His BABIP is actually still below average, but it's still unlikely that he'll manage to keep hitting at this pace. Between 1999 and 2002, Giambi hit over .300 each season, but he hasn't bested .271 since. Still, even when Giambi hit just .164 in April he hit five homers, thus showing his immense power ability. Don't expect him to stay healthy, but if you're looking for power this is a good place to start. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 6. Ben Francisco – OF – CLE - Ben Francisco has been a regular member of the Indians' lineup for about three weeks, and he's hitting .321/.352/.513 over that period. In his first 81 at-bats, he has two homers, 10 runs, 12 RBI and two stolen bases. He hit .318 in his second season at Triple-A last year, and has shown plenty of speed in the minors. If he continues to see regular at-bats he could hit around ten more homers and steal 15 more bases, making him a solid outfielder in AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 7. Rod Barajas – C – TOR - With Gregg Zaun headed to the disabled list, Rod Barajas will be Toronto's primary catcher for at least a couple weeks. He's hit .301 with three homers and 14 RBI in 83 at-bats this season. He's displayed plenty of power in the past, and while his average should fall dramatically, he's a fine add short-term add at catcher for teams that need a power hitter. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 8. Marcus Thames – OF- DET - The Tigers optioned Matt Joyce to Triple-A Toledo and plan on giving Marcus Thames an extended look as their left fielder. Thames has hit .308 against left-handed pitchers, but he's managed just .233 against righties. All five of his homers have come against lefties, in a scant 26 at-bats. Thames is 31-years-old and he's never been able to hit righties, and that's not likely to change, despite the increased playing time. Seeing more at-bats against right-handed pitchers should result in more runs and RBI, but it will hurt his average. Still, his power potential makes him worth grabbing. Recommendation: Worth owning in AL-only leagues. 9. Jeff Larish – 1B/DH – DET - With Gary Sheffield headed to the disabled list, the Tigers have called up Jeff Larish and are easing him into DH duties. He's expected to get his first start on Friday in the bottom third of Detroit's order in order to alleviate pressure in his major league debut. Larish hit .277 at Triple-A Toledo, with an impressive 16 homers and 43 RBI in 191 at-bats. He did strike out 58 times in that span, which should be his biggest problem in the majors. His power makes him a worthy flier in AL-only leagues, though, and mixed leaguers should keep an eye on him. Recommendation: Worth a flier in AL-only leagues. 10. Ryan Sweeney – OF – OAK - Sweeney is currently dealing with a toe issue, but it looks like he'll avoid a trip to the disabled list. He has become a regular in Oakland's offense, hitting .293/.353/.407 in 123 at-bats. He's managed 22 RBI and 15 runs in that time, and he's making a case to move into the top half of the order. His power is still a couple years away, limiting his fantasy value, but he's certainly someone to watch in AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Worth watching in AL-only leagues. National League 1. Pedro Martinez – SP – NYM - Pedro is scheduled to return to the Mets on Tuesday, and his velocity is reportedly better than it was before he was placed on the disabled list at the start of the season. He's available in almost half the leagues out there, and while his perpetual injury concerns limit his value, he's worth grabbing if he can be had for free. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. newyorkmets.com 2. Jorge Campillo - Campillo has made three starts for the Braves, allowing just one run in 15 innings. Over that time, he's allowed just nine hits and compiled a 16/0 K/BB ratio. The run was just the fourth he's allowed in 36 1/3 innings so far this year, giving him a 0.99 ERA. Campillo's been a bit lucky, but underlying skills suggest that he's capable of posting a sub-3.50 ERA. He's already dealing with blisters, though, and he's had Tommy John surgery in the past, so injuries are a concern. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 3. Wandy Rodriguez – SP – HOU - Rodriguez returned to the Houston rotation on Wednesday and posted a poor start against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Still, it was his first start in over a month, so please cut the guy a little slack. As he continues to distance himself from his groin injury, he should return to the form that made him so effective in the three starts before he hit the disabled list. Grab him and stash him until he's back at full speed. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 4. Jack Wilson – SS- PIT - Wilson was activated off the disabled list this week, and has gone 5-for-13 since rejoining the Pittsburgh lineup. The Pirates' offense has actually been very solid this season, and the insertion of Wilson into the No. 2 spot should only improve things. Wilson finished 2007 strong, hitting .356 with eight home runs and 31 RBI after the All Star game. Don't expect much power or speed, but he should still contribute to fantasy teams. Recommendation: Should be owned in NL-only leagues. 5. Ryan Spilborghs – OF – COL - With Matt Holliday on the disabled list, Spilborghs has gotten a chance to be a regular part of the Rockies lineup. He's responded by going 8-for-21 with 4 runs, 6 RBI and a stolen base in five games. Holliday hopes to be back on June 10, but until then Spilborghs should have solid value in NL-only leagues. Recommendation: Worth grabbing in NL-only leagues for now. 6. Elijah Dukes – OF – WAS - If your fantasy team has become complacent, and you want to freak your players out by adding a wild card to the mix, Dukes is just the guy for you. With Austin Kearns on the disabled list, Dukes has a few weeks to prove that he deserves to be a regular in Washington's lineup. So far he's gone 5-for-19 with four runs scored and just one RBI, but Dukes has tremendous talent so it's worth gambling on him. Recommendation: Worth a flier in NL-only leagues 7. Russell Branyan – 3B – MIL - Russell Branyan was called up to counteract Bill Hall's immense struggles against right-handed pitchers. Hall was very vocal in his objection to a potential platoon situation, and Milwaukee has said Branyan won't start against every left-handed opponent. Still, if Branyan excels, he figures to play at least a few times a week. He'll strike out every other time he's up, and his average leaves plenty to be desired, but Branyan should be a nice source of NL-only power for as long as he's playing. Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues. 8. Nick Evans – OF – NYM - Angel Pagan isn't close to coming of the disabled list, and Ryan Church is limited with head issues, so newly promoted Nick Evans figures to stick with the team. He got off to a hot start, hitting three doubles in his major league debut, but has since gone 0-for-13. With Fernando Tatis and Endy Chavez also capable of contributing in the outfield, he's not assured of playing time. He did hit .292/.356/.538 with 8 home runs in 171 minor league at-bats before getting called up, so the talent is there. He'll have to start showing it to keep his major league window open. Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues. newyorkmets.com 9. Gregor Blanco – OF – ATL - Blanco had been seeing plenty of action in the outfield over the past few weeks, and with Matt Diaz landing on the disabled list, Blanco figures to remain a regular part of the Braves lineup for at least the next few weeks. He'll likely be stuck in the bottom half of the lineup, and his current .290 average should drop. With 1 homer, 8 RBI and 13 runs in 107 plate appearances, his fantasy value is limited. He's shown speed in the minors, but was thrown out in 18 of 41 steal attempts last year, so it's unlikely the Braves will give him a ton of green lights. Still, he could steal a base a week or so while playing regularly. Recommendation: Worth considering in NL-only leagues. atlantabraves.com 10. Homer Bailey – SP – CIN - If Bailey had shown anything in the last month, odds are he'd be a part of the Cincinnati rotation by now. Matt Belisle was sent to Triple-A on Thursday, with Josh Fogg taking his spot in the rotation, but Fogg has hardly shown he belongs in that spot. Bailey has a 4.05 ERA, but he's simply issuing too many walks to sustain success. Still, the Reds are running out of options, and if Bailey can string together a halfway decent stretch of games he should join the team. His ERA and WHIP will be mediocre, but his huge strikeout potential would make him fantasy-worthy in NL-only leagues. Recommendation: Worth watching in NL-only leagues. |
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| | #157 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Edmonds the new Wade Boggs? Edmonds sparks the Cubs, the Sweeneys go DL together and the Dontrelle mystery persists. That and much more in this week's Week That Was. Jim Edmonds: Jim Edmonds looked like the Edmonds of old Friday, notching three hits including a dinger in the Cubs dramatic comeback win on Friday. From a fantasy perspective, I think Edmonds can be a useful player in NL-only leagues. He is hardly the superstar he was a few years back, but even with injuries and age, Edmonds has hit over .250 with double digit homers in under 400 ABs in each of the last two years. In the friendly confines, he should at least equal those totals. A digression here – a close friend and long-suffering Cubs fan said to me last night that he just has trouble thinking of Edmonds outside of his Cardinal uniform. My retort – Yankee fans said that about Wade Boggs and his Red Sox uniform back in 1996. Now all the Yankee fans remember is Boggs riding the horse around Yankee Stadium after the Yankees' improbable comeback World Series victory over the then mighty Braves. Perhaps Jim Edmonds holds the power to break the unluckiest streak in sports, overcome the ghosts of Bartman and lead the Cubbies to their first title in 100 years. We shall see. Dontrelle Willis: The Tigers announced that Dontrelle Willis and Armando Galarraga will each pitch half a game next week against the A's. Yes, you read that correctly, a little league type pitching strategy will be employed in the motor city. In my mind, this has the aura of giving up. Galarraga has posted a very strong 3.44 ERA and a WHIP under 1.10 this year, while the D-Train has continued moving along like a broken down garbage scow with square wheels. Bottom line – you should seriously consider moving Armando now while his value is at its zenith. Bobby Abreu:: Bobby Abreu scored four times in the Yankees win in the homer dome Friday night. Another interesting fact is that Abreu hit in the two hole. What does all this mean from a fantasy perspective? Well, I see a buying opportunity. Those waiting for Abreu to hit like a 30 HR hitter are bound to be disappointed and bound to be getting frustrated. That is foolish on their part. Abreu will score 100+, knock in around 100, steal 20 bases and hit for a solid average. Harp about his lack of power and fleece the Abreu owner who still sees visions of the home run derby. Travis Hafner: In what is almost a mercy move for fantasy owners who placed their faith in Travis Hafner, the Indians placed Pronk on the DL. If you own Hafner, you can do nothing but suffer and hope. Though, frankly, Pronk has shown very little in the last year and a half that would lead one to believe he will rebound. On the other hand, if your team is way behind and needs to come up with a number of miracles, grabbing Pronk cheap and hoping is not crazy – but just remember it is what it is – a hail mary and Pronk is no Roger Staubach, Drew Pearson, Joe Montana or Dwight Clark. Travis Buck: With the Sweeney's showing solidarity and hitting the DL together, the A's called up Travis Buck. At AAA , Buck was raking at a .330 pace. Look for Buck to get substantial playing time with the chance to stick long-term if he continues to produce. This is a real buying opportunity. Buck hit over .300 at every level in 2005-2006 and then, without any real time at AAA, posted a .280+ average in the bigs last year. Buy! Carlos Gonzalez: Because the A's lost two Sweeneys, in addition to Buck, they called up Carlos Gonzalez. Like Buck, Gonzalez was hitting at AAA, posting a very respectable .293 average. Given Buck's success in the bigs last year, he is the better buy, but the A's will fall of the pace and both Buck and Gonzalez could see real time over the last half of the season. Robinson Tejeda: Texas called up Robinson Tejeda from Oklahoma this week. Though they are talking about starting him out the pen, there is no way that will last. He has been lights out as a starter in AAA (1.11 ERA) and the Texas rotation hardly reminds anyone of Palmer, McNally, Dobson and Cuellar. Tejeda is a good low risk/high reward investment. He is only 26 now, but made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 23. The talent is there and the opportunity will be there. Buy. Eric Byrnes: According to reports, an MRI of Eric Byrnes' legs showed tears in not one, but both hamstrings. Byrnes will clearly remain on the shelf for the foreseeable future. For those who paid big money for EB thinking he will repeat his 50 steals of 2007, shame on you. Byrnes had never stolen more than 25 bags in one year (and he did that only once). Players rarely become big time base stealers AFTER they turn 30. If you expected that of Byrnes, well, lesson learned I hope. Chris Duncan: In what can only be described as an odd move, the Cardinals sent Chris Duncan to AAA. What makes this move even more odd is that his brother Shelley, who is not nearly the player Chris is, stays in the majors and steals at-bats from better players – but I digress. If you own Chris Duncan, hold. He will be back very soon. CD has 43 dingers in just 625 big league at bats over the last two years. That is pretty darn good. Look for new Cardinal Joe Mather, Skip Schumaker, Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton and Ryan Ludwick to shuffle around in the outfield according to Tony LaRussa's moods. Pedro Martinez: The Mets announced that Pedro Martinez will come off the DL and start against the Giants on Tuesday. Look for Mike Pelfrey to lose his rotation spot, not Claudio Vargas. As to Pedro, do not get too excited. In 2006, he had a 4.50 ERA, he barely pitched in 2007 and has thrown just 3+ innings in the first two months of 2008. If you own Pedro, wait for one or two good starts and sell high. If you don't own Pedro, keep it that way. newyorkmets.com And of course, the moment that I hope at least someone has been waiting for – Schultz says: "When the free agent pickings are slim, sometimes it's best to stop looking for the salivated over prospects and kiddie-phenoms which will blow your free agent budget and look for the solid players who are simply putting up better numbers than the average. In Bill James speak this might be another way of saying grab players who have a decent Value Over Replacement Player but in my personal belief, anyone who discourses excessively about VORP should truly be taken out back, beaten and left for carrion. Looking at that proposition in the converse, you might want to stay away from the Colorado Rockies right about now. The clock has struck midnight on last year's Cinderella team and even though the future definitely looks bright for Ian Stewart, especially if he plays at second base long enough to earn eligibility, this team is a mess. Injuries have sidelined fantasy stud Matt Holliday, supposed breakout star Troy Tulowitzki and the super-surprising Clint Barmes and doesn't it seem like years not weeks since people drooled over Manny Corpas as a valuable closer. Losing tends to diminish desire and since the advent of the humidor much of the fantasy appeal to the Rockies has been tied in with that desire. Tread circumspectly. Another team to avoid unless you are playing for 2009 (or possibly 2010) is the Kansas City Royals. The only thing to get excited about these days with the Royals is the fact that this weekend will feature a John Mayberry bobblehead giveaway. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Zack Grienke have all the makings of solid fantasy contributors but a chronically crummy team isn't going to spur any of them on to immediate greatness. This week's first and likely last Schultz Says poll: who hits their first home run first 1) Victor Martinez; 2) Delmon Young or 3) Joe Mauer. If you don't own any of them, laugh and send your votes to Glenn Colton. If you do own one of them, step away from the cutlery, it's only rotisserie baseball. If you own all three of them, dude, they're laughing at you, not with you. Response: I think Schultz swallowed a dictionary. Ok seriously, what he says makes a lot of sense and is directly in line with the SMART line of systems. T in SMART stands for Team. The better the team, the better the player is likely to produce. Good stuff. Finally, and reverting to my day job, from what I understand, the United States Supreme Court Justices met in private conference Thursday to consider, among other things, whether to hear Major League Baseball's appeal of the decision that the First Amendment trumps the limited right of publicity baseball players may have in the way in which fantasy sports companies use their names. A rejection of the appeal means that fantasy players can rest easy that new and innovative products from entrepreneurs around the country will continue to hit the market as those business people will feel more confident they will be free from the players belated attempt to cash in on a game they once ridiculed. On the other hand, if the High Court takes the case, it will be a legal battle royale in which the very fate of the fantasy sports industry will be determined. Stay tuned. |
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| | #158 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Oliver twists and shouts Nothing says "fantasy baseball" like referencing a Charles Dickens novel from 1838, so on that note let's just jump right in. Here's what's happening in baseball this week: Two-start Pitchers American League Must Starts Roy Halladay - @NYY (Joba Chamberlain), BAL (Steve Trachsel) Andy Pettitte - @MIN (Livan Hernandez), KC (Brian Bannister) Tim Wakefield - @BAL (Jeremy Guthrie), SEA (Miguel Batista) Gavin Floyd – KC (Zack Greinke), MIN (Kevin Slowey) Aaron Laffey - @TEX (Vicente Padilla), @DET (Kenny Rogers) Jake Westbrook – @TEX (Doug Mathis), @DET (Jeremy Bonderman) Zack Greinke - @CHW (Gavin Floyd), @NYY (Joba Chamberlain) Ervin Santana - @SEA (Jarrod Washburn), @OAK (Rich Harden) Joba Chamberlain – TOR (Roy Halladay), KC (Zach Greinke) Rich Harden – DET (Jeremy Bonderman), LAA (Ervin Santana) Jeremy Bonderman - @OAK (Rich Harden), CLE (Jake Westbrook) Kevin Slowey – BAL (Steve Trachsel), @CHW (Gavin Floyd) Matt Garza - @BOS (Justin Masterson), @TEX (Doug Mathis) Other Options Jeremy Guthrie – BOS (Tim Wakefield), @TOR (A.J. Burnett) Steve Trachsel - @MIN (Kevin Slowey), @TOR (Roy Halladay) Livan Hernandez – NYY (Andy Pettitte), @CHW (Mark Buehrle) Jarrod Washburn – LAA (Ervin Santana), @BOS (Clay Buchholz*) Vicente Padilla – CLE (Aaron Laffey), TB (Andy Sonnanstine) Doug Mathis – CLE (Jake Westbrook), TB (Matt Garza) *Buchholz could be back to start for the Red Sox on Saturday. National League Must Starts Jo-Jo Reyes – FLA (Scott Olsen), PHI (Kyle Kendrick) Jorge Campillo – FLA (Burke Badenhop), PHI (Adam Eaton) Carlos Zambrano - @SD (Shawn Estes), @LAD (Derek Lowe) Jason Marquis - @SD (Wilfredo Ledezma), @LAD (Brad Penny) Bronson Arroyo - @PHI (Kyle Kendrick), @FLA (Scott Olsen) Aaron Harang - @PHI (Adam Eaton), @FLA (Burke Badenhop) Scott Olsen - @ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes), CIN (Bronson Arroyo) Wandy Rodriguez - @PIT (Phil Dumatrait), STL (Kyle Lohse) Derek Lowe – COL (Greg Reynolds), CHC (Carlos Zambrano) Brad Penny – COL (Jeff Francis), CHC (Jason Marquis) Oliver Perez - @SF (Freddy Sanchez), @SD (Shawn Estes) Pedro Martinez - @SF (Barry Zito), @SD (Wilfredo Ledezma) Adam Wainwright – PIT (Tom Gorzelanny), @HOU (Shawn Chacon) Other Options Doug Davis - @MIL (Jeff Suppan), @PIT (Phil Dumatrait) Greg Reynolds - @LAD (Derek Lowe), MIL (Jeff Suppan) Burke Badenhop - @ATL (Jorge Campillo), CIN (Aaron Harang) Jeff Suppan – ARI (Doug Davis), @COL (Greg Reynolds) Kyle Kendrick – CIN (Bronson Arroyo), @ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes) atlantabraves.com Adam Eaton – CIN (Aaron Harang), @ATL (Jorge Campillo) Tom Gorzelanny - @STL (Adam Wainwright), ARI (Dan Haren) Phil Dumatrait – HOU (Wandy Rodriguez), ARI (Doug Davis) Shawn Estes – CHC (Carlos Zambrano), NYM (Oliver Perez) Wilfredo Ledezma – CHC (Jason Marquis), NYM (Pedro Martinez) Jonathan Sanchez – NYM (Oliver Perez), @WAS (Odalis Perez) Kyle Lohse - @WAS (Odalis Perez), @HOU (Wandy Rodriguez) Odalis Perez – STL (Kyle Lohse), SF (Jonathan Sanchez) Possible Streamers The following pitchers are available in a majority of mixed leagues and might be worth using in one or both of their starts this week. American League Tuesday, 6/3 – Kevin Slowey vs. BAL – After allowing just one run in nine innings against the Royals this week, Slowey now has a 3.38 ERA to go along with his 1.04 WHIP. He's still giving up an inordinate number of home runs, but he can be used in the right situation. The Orioles have scored the second-fewest runs in the American League, making Tuesday the right situation. Tuesday, 6/3 – Gavin Floyd vs. KC – Floyd is owned in more than half of all fantasy leagues, but make sure he's not available in yours. Match-ups against Kansas City and Minnesota should produce quality stats worth using in weekly leagues. Wednesday 6/4 – John Danks vs. KC – Danks is also unavailable in most fantasy leagues, but if you can grab him and start him against the league's worst offense, then please do it. Wednesday, 6/4 - Daniel Cabrera @ MIN – Cabrera has been pitching well this season, but he may have burned fantasy owners one too many times because he's owned in just a quarter of all leagues. Still, he's only walked more than two batters once since the first week of the season, and a match-up against the Twins at their pitcher-friendly ballpark should prove advantageous. Thursday, 6/5 – Jose Contreras vs. KC – Like the two White Sox pitchers above, Contreras is owned in about half of all mixed leagues. Also like them, he's scheduled to pitch against the worst offense in major league baseball. If he's available, use him. National League Monday, 6/2 - Derek Lowe vs. COL – Colorado is incredibly banged up, and their offense has been uninspiring for much of the season. Lowe has thrown consecutive quality starts, and might be reversing an ugly start to the season. He's also pitched significantly better at home this year. This is a risky option, but worth considering. Monday, 6/2 – Oliver Perez @ SF – Perez has disappointed early, but pitching in San Francisco against the Giants should lead to a productive outing. The Giants have scored the second-fewest runs in the National League, with only the Padres scoring fewer. It just so happens that Perez makes his second start against San Diego this week. That both stadiums are pitcher-friendly should help. Tuesday, 6/3 – Kyle Lohse @ WAS – Lohse has faced the punchless Nationals offense once so far this season, and he shut them out for seven innings, allowing just four hits. He's allowed just three runs in his last 18 innings, and seems poised to make another quality start on Tuesday. Friday, 6/6 – Jason Bergmann vs. SF – As mentioned above, the Giants are one of the worst offenses in the major leagues. Bergmann hasn't allowed a run in 19 2/3 innings since getting recalled in the middle of May. Total Games American League 7: BAL, BOS, CLE, MIN, NYY, TEX 6: CHW, DET, KC, LAA, OAK, SEA, TB, TOR National League 7: ATL, CHC, CIN, FLA, LAD, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, STL 6: ARI, COL, HOU, MIL, SF, WAS Righty vs. Lefty match-ups American League Baltimore - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Boston - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Chicago White Sox - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties Cleveland - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Detroit - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Kansas City - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Los Angeles Angels - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Minnesota - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties New York Yankees - 7 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties Oakland - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Seattle - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Tampa Bay – 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Texas - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties Toronto - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Notes: The Angels face three left-handed pitchers this week, so Erick Aybar (.382 vs LHP) should have a solid week. Casey Kotchman (.395 vs. LHP) should also benefit. By hitting .262 against them, Gary Matthews Jr. is hitting lefties over 50 points better than righties. Mike Napoli (.176 vs. LHP) might get an extra day off. The Twins also face three lefties, which could be good news for Carlos Gomez, who is hitting .362 off them this year. Brandon Harris (.209 vs. LHP) and Jason Kubel (.171 vs. LHP) and Mike Lamb (.091 vs. LHP) have all disappointed against lefties this year. Craig Monroe (.118 vs. LHP) and Delmon Young (.222 vs. LHP) also have struggled. The Athletics have three games against lefties, so Travis Buck (.120 vs. LHP) could see reduced playing time. Emil Brown (.313 vs. LHP) is worth using, while Mark Ellis (.148 vs. LHP) could struggle. Kurt Suzuki (.226 vs. LHP) could also get an extra day off. The Rangers are matched-up with four left-handed pitchers, which should benefit Brandon Boggs (.269 vs. LHP) and lead to fewer at-bats for Frank Catalanotto. Ian Kinsler (.224 vs. LHP) could suffer, as could David Murphy (.232 vs. LHP) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.167 vs. LHP). National League: Arizona - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Atlanta - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Chicago Cubs - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Cincinnati - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Colorado - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Florida - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Houston - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Los Angeles Dodgers – 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Milwaukee - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties New York Mets - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties Philadelphia - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Pittsburgh - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties San Diego - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties San Francisco - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties St. Louis - 4 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties Washington - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Notes: The Diamondbacks face three lefties, which is good news for Orlando Hudson (.358 vs. LHP), Conor Jackson (.396 vs. LHP), Justin Upton (.306 vs. LHP) and Mark Reynolds (.271 vs. LHP). The Braves face three lefties, which is bad news for Yunel Escobar (.247 vs. LHP). It should help Kelly Johnson (.339 vs. LHP) and Brian McCann (.382 vs. LHP). Greg Norton (.333 vs. LHP) could also be worth consideration in Atlanta's banged-up outfield. The Reds face three southpaws, which isn't great news for Paul Bako, who has hit just .188 off them this season. Adam Dunn is hitting just .231 off them and only 3 of his 14 homers have come against lefties. Ken Griffey Jr. is hitting just .188 off lefties thus far. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .271 off them meanwhile, making him a solid option, just like Ryan Freel, who is hitting .339 in 62 at-bats against lefties. Jerry Hairston is hitting .433 off lefties so far this season, so he can be considered. Joey Votto is hitting .322 off southpaws. The Astros will go against three lefties, so Michael Bourn (.149 vs. LHP) could have a tough time, while Kaz Matsui (.316 vs. LHP), Ty Wigginton (.348 vs. LHP), and J.R. Towles (.294) could have good weeks. The Mets have three games against lefties, which is bad news for Luis Castillo (.217 vs. LHP). It's great news for David Wright, who is hitting .444 off lefties so far this season. Brian Schneider is hitting just .238 off of them. The Padres face three lefties, which isn't great news for Adrian Gonzalez (.229 vs. LHP), but he should obviously be played anyway. Scott Hairston has hit just .175 off lefties this season, and Tadahito Iguchi is hitting just .184 off them. Kevin Kouzmanoff should have a nice week, as he's hit .333 off lefties thus far this season. The Cardinals face four lefties this week, which could have contributed to the demotion of Chris Duncan, who is hitting just .111 off them. Cesar Izturis is hitting .281 off lefties, and Adam Kennedy is hitting .292 off them. Ryan Ludwick, meanwhile, is hitting just .230 off lefties. Yadier Molina could be worth starting, as he's hitting .392 off lefties. The Injury Bug For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page. Chone Figgins – 3B – Hamstring – Return mid-June Kelvim Escobar – SP – Shoulder – Return around All Star break Frank Thomas – DH – Quadriceps – Return mid-June Gregg Zaun – C – Elbow – Return mid-June Vernon Wells – OF – Wrist – Return early July Mark Kotsay – OF – Back – Out indefinitely John Smoltz – P – Shoulder – Return June 2 Eric Gagne – RP – Shoulder – Return early June Jason Isringhausen – Hand – Return late June Chris Carpenter – SP – Elbow – Return late July Eric Byrnes – OF – Hamstring – Return mid-June Rafael Furcal – SS- Back – Return early June Travis Hafner – DH – Shoulder- Return mid-June Fausto Carmona – SP – Hip – Return late June Chris Young – SP – Face – Out indefinitely Jake Peavy – SP – Elbow – Return early June Jayson Werth – OF – Abdomen – Return mid-June Ryan Doumit – C – Thumb – Return early June Troy Percival – RP – Leg – Return mid-June Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – shoulder – Out indefinitely Matt Holliday – OF – Hamstring – Return mid-June Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Quadriceps – Return July Jorge Posada – C – Shoulder- Return early June Waiver Wired For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired. AL 1. Dan Wheeler 2. Jesse Litsch 3. Aaron Laffey 4. Jose Contreras 5. Jason Giambi NL 1. Pedro Martinez 2. Jorge Campillo 3. Wandy Rodriguez 4. Jack Wilson 5. Ryan Spilborghs |
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| | #160 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| June Third Basemen Rankings Up this week are the June rankings. Players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list. Click to see other June Rankings: Relief Pitcher Rankings Starting Pitcher Rankings Outfielder Rankings Catcher Rankings First Basemen Rankings DH Rankings Second Basemen Rankings Shortstop Rankings Third basemen Rankings Top 250 Overall Rankings Third basemen
Rising: Chipper Jones (8 to 6), Evan Longoria (20 to 14), Jorge Cantu (27 to 18), Chad Tracy (28 to 24), Eric Chavez (32 to 28), Blake DeWitt (40 to 29), Chase Headley (43 to 30), Russell Branyan (NR to 33), Ramon Vazquez (NR to 36) Falling: Chone Figgins (5 to 7), Hank Blalock (13 to 22), Bill Hall (15 to 23), Jose Bautista (26 to 31), Andy LaRoche (29 to 35), Nomar Garciaparra (34 to 38), Scott Moore (39 to NR), Morgan Ensberg (42 to NR) - I figured Cantu's poor glove would eventually cost him his job, but the Marlins are so used to putting up with lousy infield defense that they hardly seem to care at this point. Cantu is definitely worth using in mixed leagues while hitting third in Florida's lineup. - Tracy should be the Diamondbacks' primary third baseman against right-handers, but I'm not holding my breath on that one. Mark Reynolds is still ranked higher at the moment. - If Blalock had returned Friday as expected, he would come in at No. 14. Now that he's had wrist surgery, costing him at least another 2-4 weeks, he drops to 22nd. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| | #161 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| June Outfielder Rankings Up this week are the June rankings. Players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list. Click to see other June Rankings: Relief Pitcher Rankings Starting Pitcher Rankings Outfielder Rankings Catcher Rankings First Basemen Rankings DH Rankings Second Basemen Rankings Shortstop Rankings Third basemen Rankings Top 250 Overall Rankings Outfielders
Rising: Ichiro Suzuki (6 to 4), Alfonso Soirano (10 to 5), Jason Bay (29 to 15), Jacoby Ellsbury (26 to 16), Nate McLouth (39 to 21), Josh Hamilton (33 to 22), Carlos Quentin (52 to 25), Jay Bruce (91 to 34), Juan Pierre (55 to 41), Carlos Gomez (74 to 45), Aaron Rowand (60 to 50), Ryan Church (61 to 51), Randy Winn (70 to 60), David Murphy (81 to 67), Ryan Ludwick (101 to 71), Ben Francisco (NR to 76), Joey Gathright (102 to 86), Ryan Spilborghs (118 to 88), Wladimir Balentien (NR to 95) Falling: Matt Holliday (1 to 2), Nick Markakis (4 to 7), Alex Rios (7 to 9), Delmon Young (23 to 28), Nick Swisher (25 to 29), Vernon Wells (19 to 39), Eric Byrnes (18 to 43), Lastings Milledge (41 to 47), Adam Jones (46 to 53), Josh Willingham (48 to 57), Austin Kearns (53 to 68), Mark Teahen (57 to 69), Andruw Jones (44 to 72), Chris Duncan (67 to 79), Franklin Gutierrez (54 to 83), Corey Patterson (76 to 89), Jacque Jones (77 to 91), Barry Bonds (79 to 94), Reed Johnson (88 to 109), Colby Rasmus (95 to NR) - Holliday will likely reclaim the top spot after returning from a hamstring injury next week. Crawford hardly deserves to be ranked No. 1 with the way he's performed, but he still figures to get hot at some point and he's better quite a bit better in runs and RBI than expected given his slow start. - Swisher drops only four slots. He's pretty much the ultimate buy-low candidate at this point. He has too much power not to eventually take advantage of playing at U.S. Cellular. - I'm slotting Bruce in at No. 34. My preseason projection called for a .258/.306/.452 line, 12 homers, 52 RBI and six steals in 310 at-bats. Now that he's up, he looks like a pretty good bet for 400 at-bats and 20 homers. A .300 average is unrealistic, but he should post fine run and RBI numbers anyway if he continues to hit high in Cincinnati's order. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| | #162 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| June Starting Pitcher Rankings Up this week are the June rankings. Players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list. Click to see other June Rankings: Relief Pitcher Rankings Starting Pitcher Rankings Outfielder Rankings Catcher Rankings First Basemen Rankings DH Rankings Second Basemen Rankings Shortstop Rankings Third basemen Rankings Top 250 Overall Rankings Starting Pitchers
Rising: Carlos Zambrano (7 to 4), Roy Halladay (12 to 6), John Lackey (22 to 10), Tim Lincecum (20 to 14), Scott Kazmir (23 to 15), Adam Wainwright (31 to 17), Edinson Volquez (57 to 19), Javier Vazquez (35 to 23), John Maine (36 to 24), Cliff Lee (40 to 26), Randy Johnson (41 to 27), Joe Saunders (55 to 31), Pedro Martinez (46 to 35), Ervin Santana (58 to 38), Jake Westbrook (60 to 41), Jon Lester (89 to 47), John Danks (69 to 49), Todd Wellemeyer (99 to 58), Ryan Dempster (NR to 60), Bartolo Colon (105 to 61), Clayton Kershaw (90 to 76), Aaron Laffey (NR to 87), Justin Duchscherer (NR to 90), Andrew Miller (NR to 96) Falling: Jake Peavy (2 to 7), Erik Bedard (5 to 8), Justin Verlander (10 to 21), Daisuke Matsuzaka (19 to 25), Roy Oswalt (18 to 30), Fausto Carmona (15 to 34), Chris Young (14 to 37), Brett Myers (27 to 39), Ian Snell (30 to 44), Brad Penny (28 to 48), Johnny Cueto (42 to 56), Mark Buehrle (48 to 65), Scott Olsen (59 to 71), Jeff Francis (68 to 84), Rich Hill (47 to 97), Carlos Silva (83 to 101), Tom Gorzelanny (78 to 103), Phil Hughes (70 to 109), Carlos Villanueva (84 to 119), Yovani Gallardo (24 to NR), Mark Prior (92 to NR), Ian Kennedy (93 to NR) - On the eve of his first major league start on Tuesday, Joba Chamberlain enters the rankings at No. 32 and moves up a few spots in the top 250. - The Tigers did need to put Dontrelle Willis back into the rotation, but it's hard to believe they're going to mess with the guy who has been their best starter over the last six weeks in order to make it happen. I didn't have any faith that Armando Galarraga was going to keep it up, but I also don't believe that Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson are going to get a whole lot better. The Tigers could have gotten away with stashing another one of their left-handed starters on the DL. It still might happen. - Homer Bailey is expected to get the nod over Matt Maloney and Daryl Thompson to join the rotation on Thursday. He'll be facing the Phillies and he hasn't pitched very well lately, so he's not going to be worth using in NL-only leagues right off. Still, he'd be nice to have stashed away. - Jorge Campillo became the first player without a preseason projection to crack the rankings. The former Mariner is looking like a legitimate No. 4 for the Braves. atlantabraves.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| June Relief Pitcher Rankings Up this week are the June rankings. Players are ranked based on how I believe they will perform in 5x5 leagues over the remainder of the season. Included with the position rankings is a new overall top-250 list. Click to see other June Rankings: Relief Pitcher Rankings Starting Pitcher Rankings Outfielder Rankings Catcher Rankings First Basemen Rankings DH Rankings Second Basemen Rankings Shortstop Rankings Third basemen Rankings Top 250 Overall Rankings Relief Pitchers
Rising: B.J. Ryan (17 to 11), Brandon Lyon (26 to 17), Kerry Wood (28 to 19), George Sherrill (27 to 22), Jon Rauch (31 to 24), Brian Fuentes (33 to 25), Ryan Franklin (NR to 27), Joe Borowski (39 to 30), Salomon Torres (NR to 33), Matt Lindstrom (52 to 40), Dan Wheeler (NR to 41), James Johnson (NR to 42), Chris Perez (NR to 47) Falling:.J. Putz (1 to 4), Trevor Hoffman (12 to 16), John Smoltz (21 SP to 18), Brian Wilson (21 to 26), Troy Percival (24 to 28), Eric Gagne (22 to 31), Rafael Betancourt (25 to 35), Jason Isringhausen (16 to 39), Chad Cordero (34 to 45), Manny Corpas (30 to NR), Pat Neshek (37 to NR), Jeremy Accardo (40 to NR) - Putz tumbles three spots, and I'm already tempted to drop him a couple of more. Besides the command woes, his usual velocity still isn't there. As he gets further removed from his injuries, he'll probably regain his stuff. However, there's definite reason for concern right now. Brandon Morrow would be next in line for saves if Putz returns to the DL. - We've seen some closers post absurd ERAs this season, most notably Isringhausen, Gagne and Borowski. However, the numbers of the top guys have been astounding. Sporting ERAs under 1.00 are Mariano Rivera (0.36), Billy Wagner (0.39), Ryan (0.53) and Lidge (0.82). Those with incredible WHIPs include Rivera (0.52), Percival (0.66), Joakim Soria (0.69), and Wagner (0.78). Of the 21 guys with at least 11 saves, 10 have WHIPs no higher than 1.00, 11 have opposing batting averages under .200 and 12 are striking out more than a batter an inning. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| | #164 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Ay, Papi! David Ortiz opened the season in a 3-for-43 (.070) slump, but hit his usual .299/.387/.575 with 12 homers and 40 RBIs in 42 games since then. Unfortunately, his rapid rise has been put on hold after Ortiz felt a "pop" in his left wrist during a swing Saturday. Initially deemed day-to-day after X-rays came back negative, Ortiz underwent an MRI exam Monday and was placed on the disabled list with a partially torn tendon. There's no indication that he'll require surgery and manager Terry Francona suggested that Ortiz could return following the minimum 15-day stay on the DL, but it's worth noting that wrist injuries often prove to be trickier than expected. With Ortiz out, Coco Crisp, Sean Casey, and Jacoby Ellsbury all figure to see slightly increased playing time and 29-year-old rookie Jeff Bailey could also work his way into the mix after hitting .318/.412/.665 with 16 homers in 50 games at Triple-A. While an injury proves to be the only thing that can keep Ortiz below a .900 OPS, here are some other notes from around baseball … * John Smoltz returned from the disabled list Monday after being sidelined for over a month with shoulder soreness and immediately took over as the Braves' closer, coughing up two runs in the ninth inning to blow his first save attempt since October 2, 2004. He may not be asked to pitch in back-to-back games initially, but there's little doubt that Smoltz will once again have a very strong grip on ninth-inning duties if healthy. Keep an eye on his velocity and be patient. * Chase Utley began the season by homering 13 times through 31 games and then went into a three-week slump during which he batted just .194 with one long ball, but he's back to tearing the cover off the ball again. Utley went 3-for-4 with a two-run blast Monday, giving him homers in five straight games and seven of the past eight games. He's driven in 19 runs over those eight games and leads baseball with 21 homers, giving him just eight fewer than the Royals have as a team. * Not only was Joe Mauer's game-tying homer in the seventh inning Monday against Andy Pettitte his first long ball of the season, it was just the third time in his career that he's taken a left-hander deep. His previous two homers off southpaws both came in 2006, when he hit a dramatic three-run blast to straight-away center field against Neal Cotts on July 24 and smacked a two-run shot against Adam Loewen on September 24. Mauer has 33 career homers versus right-handers. Meanwhile, Mauer's teammate Delmon Young is still homerless with the Twins, but did hit three opposite-field doubles Monday while driving in three runs. Young is hitting .273 overall and has gone 42-for-144 (.292) since mid-April, but the supposed big-time power threat is slugging a measly .356 this season and .405 for his 248-game MLB career. Like Mauer, Young produces a ton of ground balls and rarely looks to pull pitches, which isn't a recipe for power development. * Mauer finally got off the schneid Monday, leaving Victor Martinez and Jason Kendall as the only catchers with at least 150 plate appearances and zero homers. That's nothing new for Kendall, but Martinez went deep 25 times last season while driving in 114 runs. Manager Eric Wedge explained Martinez's lack of power Monday by saying that the Opening Day hamstring injury he suffered has lingered for two months. Martinez is hitting .289 while continuing to play through it. * Ryan Zimmerman sat out his seventh straight game Sunday and underwent an MRI on his sore left shoulder Monday. He's been diagnosed with a small tear, but so far at least he continues to avoid the disabled list and has been advised to simply rest. It's an odd situation, because Zimmerman has been "day-to-day" for two weeks and many hitters have taken cortisone shots while playing through similar injuries to non-throwing shoulders. For now, Aaron Boone fills in. AL Quick Hits: Rich Harden racked up eight strikeouts Monday and has now made five straight starts without missing a turn in the rotation for the first time in over two years … Jorge Posada (shoulder) went 1-for-3 with a walk in an extended spring training game Monday and hinted that he could return from the disabled list this week … Manny Ramirez homered Monday for the third straight game and is now just two long balls behind Eddie Murray for 23rd place on the all-time list … Perhaps responding to increased pressure for playing time from Andy Marte, Casey Blake homered twice Monday and tied a career-high with seven RBIs … Vladimir Guerrero got Monday off after jamming his right knee Sunday, giving Juan Rivera a rare start … After allowing a total of just three runs through his first five starts, Daily Dose favorite Aaron Laffey got rocked for eight runs Monday … Meanwhile, Laffey's rotation spot figures to be safe for a while thanks to elbow soreness forcing Jake Westbrook back to the DL … Joel Zumaya (shoulder) and Fernando Rodney (shoulder) are both scheduled to begin minor-league rehab assignments Tuesday. atlantabraves.com NL Quick Hits: Showing no signs of slowing down, Jay Bruce went 2-for-4 with a homer Monday and is now hitting a ridiculous .577/.667/1.038 through seven games … Jake Peavy (shoulder) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Sunday and reported no problems … Prince Fielder went 3-for-4 with a game-winning homer Monday and also stole his first base of the season … Along with notching his eighth victory Monday, Carlos Zambrano went 3-for-3 with a triple and is now hitting .366 … Chris Carpenter (elbow) threw a 41-pitch simulated game Sunday and could be less than a month away from beginning a minor-league rehab assignment … Ken Griffey Jr. was scratched from Monday's lineup with what the Reds called "general soreness" … Jim Edmonds smacked a pair of doubles Monday and is now 10-for-35 (.286) since joining the Cubs … According to the Denver Post, the Yankees are interested in Brian Fuentes as a potential bullpen replacement for Joba Chamberlain … On the long road back from shoulder surgery, Kris Benson was scratched from his scheduled rehab start Monday at Single-A because of biceps soreness. newyorkmets.com |
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| | #165 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| CarGo Has Arrived Just one day before the MLB draft, and there's still plenty of speculation as to what order the top picks will go. Usually a few picks can be honed in on by now, but not this year. The Rays are still unknown at the top, the Pirates have to overcome their long history of cheapness before the Pedro Alvarez rumors can be believed, and the top 10 or so players are all so closely grouped that everything from No. 4 on is a crap shoot. That should make for a very interesting draft, as well as some tough decisions when I write the first of two columns ranking the drafted players next week. I'm always up for a little draft discussion or Q&A, so feel free to shoot me a note. It's a big week for callups, with 10 players that could potentially have value. Only a few are big names, so the writeups will be shorter than normal to try and accommodate the deep talent pool this week. Major League Callups Josh Anderson – OF Braves – Mark Kotsay's trip to the disabled list had the Braves looking for an outfielder, and they went with Anderson over Brandon Jones. Both players were struggling in Triple-A, so Anderson likely got the nod because of his defense and baserunning advantages. Anderson was batting .282/.326/.330 with 13 steals in 16 attempts before being called up, and that's a pretty typical line given the rest of his career. Anderson has 40 steal potential and can hit an empty .280, so he's going to be pretty valuable in NL-only leagues when getting playing time. He figures to start against most right-handers while Mark Kotsay is out. Since Kotsay will be out for at least two weeks and quite possibly significantly longer, Anderson is a nice short-term pickup with some long-term upside in NL-only formats. atlantabraves.com Recommendation: Pursue in NL-only leagues; monitor in deep mixed leagues. Mike Aviles – SS Royals – Chosen to take the roster spot of Billy Butler, Aviles is an offensive-minded middle infielder. The 27-year-old isn't a prospect, especially considering his sub-par defense, but he's always had good bat control and he was having the best year of his career before being promoted. The 5'9", 200-pound right-hander was batting .336/.370/.631 with a solid 23/11 K/BB. The impressive slugging percentage included 21 doubles, six triples, and 10 homers. He had never topped a .463 slugging percentage since rookie ball and he doesn't walk much, but Aviles consistently puts the ball in play (just 59 strikeouts in 538 at-bats last year) and has modest power. Maybe he'll get a few starts up the middle until the club sees a better option, but he'll have to get hot quick to garner much playing time. He's had just one start in six days with the big league club, so the Royals don't seem intent on giving him that shot. Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only leagues. Chris Carter – 1B Red Sox – A 17th round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2004, Carter was first sent to the Nationals for Emiliano Fruto, but was then quickly shipped to the Red Sox to complete the Wily Mo Pena trade. Carter has been a consistently above average hitter in the minors, and his current .310/.366/.526 line with 14 doubles, 10 homers, and a 33/18 K/BB are all in line with his career averages in the minors. The 6'0, 230-pound left-hander has good plate discipline and solid power that should translate to the majors. That he's a potential 20-homer, 30-double guy as a first basemen won't get people excited, but he's a better talent than quite a few teams run out there at 1B or DH. Since he's always had trouble with left-handers, a role as a platoon first basemen is in store for Carter at some point. With David Ortiz out for at least a month, and likely longer as he won't be rushed back, Carter will try and steal at-bats away from Coco Crisp and Sean Casey. Crisp can't hit and Casey's value is solely in a fluky high batting average, so even though the team's best defensive arrangement involves Crisp, Carter could get a fair amount of playing time if he hits right away. If he doesn't the team could go to Brandon Moss or one of their Double-A alternatives. Since Carter can hit for average, pop a few homers, and drive in a fair amount of runs, he's worth a flier in deep AL-only leagues. That he was incredibly hot in May, with a 1081 OPS, may help the translation to the majors. Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues. Kory Casto – OF Nationals – A sleeper in NL-only leagues last spring, Casto had an awful 54 at-bat trial in the majors last season and it sent his stock into the tank. He wasn't all that strong for Triple-A Columbus last season either, as his 718 OPS was a big departure from previous seasons. When he was at his best, Casto flashed 20-homer potential and good plate discipline. Already 26 years old, Casto needs a big year if he's ever going to get an extended look in the majors. The Nationals' crowded outfield situation hurt him, and since he no longer plays third base his versatility is limited. With Nick Johnson, Ronnie Belliard, Austin Kearns, and now Ryan Zimmerman all on the disabled list, Casto will get some time in the majors for at least a few weeks. He'll have to take time away from Elijah Dukes or Wily Mo Pena to garner at-bats, and he'll be the club's emergency third basemen with Zimmerman out. Since he rebounded from last season's poor performance to post a .315/.390/.461 line before being promoted means he can be watched in NL-only leagues. However, his upside is modest and the club is more interested in giving Dukes and Pena playing time, so don't expect too much. Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues. Carlos Gonzalez – OF Athletics – The biggest name amongst this week's callups, Gonzalez is being given a shot in the majors with the injuries to Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, and now Ryan Sweeney taking their toll. Signed out of Venezuela in 2002, Gonzalez broke out for Single-A South Bend in the Diamondbacks' system back in 2005. He hit .307 with 18 homers that season, and followed it up with better raw production at High-A Lancaster the following season. There he hit a robust .300/.355/.562 that included 21 homers, but the extremely hitter-friendly environment at Lancaster means his South Bend performance was actually better. Gonzalez failed to show the same power at Double-A Mobile the following year, though he was hardly a slouch with 33 doubles and 16 homers. Involved in the Dan Haren megadeal this winter, Gonzalez was batting .293/.351/.439 for Triple-A Sacramento before his callup. He did miss a week with a sprained ankle early in May and struggled the rest of the month, so he's not at his best right now. In the long-term Gonzalez has .300-25 type potential, though it will come with low walk totals. The Garrett Anderson comparisons are natural and appropriate. However, Gonzalez wouldn't figure to smack more than 10-12 homers in a full season right now, so his short-term value is limited. Since he also isn't a threat to steal many bases, owners will have to hope for a high average and solid RBI production. It's possible he'll hit .280 and smack enough doubles to amass value, but he's not an incredibly attractive option right now. The $20 he went for in my AL-only league was excessive, but he's a fine $8-$10 option. Recommendation: Pursue in AL-only leagues. Daniel Herrera – LHP Reds – One of the more fun players to root for out there, Herrera is listed at just 5'7" and 145 pounds. He also doesn't throw hard and gets by on command and secondary pitches, and to top it all off he goes by Danny Ray. Herrera will be an instant fan favorite if he can stick in the majors, and he's got a shot to do just that. A 45th round pick by the Rangers in 2006, Herrera had a quality junior season pitching in the very hitter-friendly environment at New Mexico. He posted a 2.24 ERA and 104/29 K/BB in 128 1/3 innings, then utterly dominated at High-A Bakersfield with a 61/12 K/BB and 1.35 ERA while bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen for 53 1/3 innings. Since he tops out at 85 MPH with his fastball Herrera wasn't a highly sought after pick and he wasn't given much of a chance even after dominating in High-A. However, Herrera has one of the best changeups in the minors, as it sits in the low-60s with good screwball-type movement. He also has a fine slider and commands all of his pitches well, so he was worth giving a shot at higher levels. Rather than keep him in the rotation, the Rangers thought the changeup specialist made the most sense in the bullpen and moved him there in 2007. Herrera was solid while pitching mostly for Double-A Frisco, posting over a strikeout per inning with good command and a 3.78 ERA. He was doing even better this season after coming over in the Josh Hamilton-Edinson Volquez deal, recording a 1.89 ERA and 26/11 K/BB in 38 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Herrera will now take the spot of Kent Mercker, who is on the 60-day DL, in the Reds' bullpen, and he's a player you should certainly try and watch pitch if nothing else. He has some potential to be useful in a relief role for NL-only leaguers, but he's not someone to run out and grab just yet. Recommendation: Monitor in deep NL-only leagues. Jeff Larish – 1B Tigers – A potential top five pick after a huge sophomore season playing at the hitter-friendly confines of Arizona State, Larish battled a hand injury and slumped badly as a junior while seeing his OPS fall from 1225 the year before to 864. He mostly rebounded as a senior with 23 homers and an 1137 OPS, but his plate discipline wasn't as good and his production needed to be discounted given the extremely favorable home park and league. For a comparison, Dustin Pedroia had a 1113 OPS for Arizona State as a junior the year prior, so that Larish barely out hit him as a senior first basemen puts the line into perspective. Larish was a fifth round pick after his senior season, and he continued to show power and patience at the lower levels of the minors. That he struck out too much and had huge problems with left-handers limited his batting average potential, but he looked like a fine platoon player after last year's .267/.390/.515 line in Double-A. Now 25 years old, Larish was having his best season to date with 16 homers and a .592 slugging percentage in 191 at-bats before being promoted. He was particularly impressive against right-handers, posting a .295/.390/.647 mark. With Gary Sheffield on the disabled list for at least three weeks, Larish will get a chance to start at DH against right-handers. He's off to a slow start by going 2-for-15 with six strikeouts, but the power potential means he's worth a shot in AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Claim in AL-only leagues. Radhames Liz – RHP Orioles – Liz has been a prospect since busting out for High-A Frederick as a 23-year-old in 2006, but the same concerns that dogged him then are still issues today. On the plus side, Liz has a mid-90s fastball and a curve that's above average when he hits his spots, along with a passable changeup and good durability. On the negative side, Liz's mechanics simply aren't very good and he doesn't repeat them well on top of that, in large part because he puts so much effort into his throws. It's the major reason why he has such poor command, and walking a batter every other inning as Liz has done in the minors simply won't cut it in the big leagues. It certainly didn't last year, when he walked 23 batters in 24 2/3 innings while posting a 6.93 ERA for Baltimore. Liz's command was somewhat better as he walked 'only' 25 batters in 60 innings before his promotion, but the 25-year-old will need to show more than a modest improvement over a small sample to convince the Orioles he's made real improvement. A likely future reliever, Liz will get a chance to show what he can do as a starter with Steve Trachsel removed from the rotation. The spot is there for Liz to take, but it's just not very likely that he will. If his command continues to improve he could be rosterable with such good stuff, so in that sense he's worth monitoring. Recommendation: Monitor in AL-only leagues. Joe Mather – OF Cardinals – A third round pick way back in 2001, Mather struggled at third base and at the plate early in his career. He was eventually moved to first base and then the outfield before finally breaking out at the plate last year. The then 24-year-old hit .303/.387/.607 with 18 home runs in 234 at-bats for Double-A Springfield. A move to Triple-A Memphis saw his batting average tumble, but he still made contact often and belted 13 homers. Back at Memphis to begin this season, Mather was batting .315/.406/.671 with 12 homers and a nice 21/18 K/BB in 143 at-bats. The 6'4" right-hander will battle with Brian Barton to spell Skip Schumaker and/or Rick Ankiel versus left-handed pitching. Since the Cardinals have faced so many lefties of late, Mather has started four of the last five games, and it appears he's ahead of Barton on the depth chart for now. He's worth a flier in deep NL-only leagues. Recommendation: Claim in deep NL-only leagues. Brad Ziegler – RHP Athletics – A one-time starter with moderate success, the Athletics moved Ziegler to the bullpen after a 2006 campaign in which he posted a 3.43 ERA yet poor 5.6 K/9 as a 26-year-old in Double-A. More important than the move to the bullpen, Ziegler embraced the Athletics' suggestion to try throwing from a submarine angle. After working on it in the off-season, Ziegler returned and looked like a dominant reliever with a 2.41 ERA and 62/18 K/BB in 78 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He was even better with a 0.37 ERA and 20/4 K/BB in Triple-A this year. The right-hander tops out in the high-80s, but his slider and changeup are both solid offerings and he has excellent command from a deceptive angle. He also induces plenty of groundballs (2.93 GB/FB in 2007) and has yet to give up a homer in 103 innings since moving to the new delivery. I like his chances of succeeding right away in the majors, so he's worth grabbing in deep AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Claim in deep AL-only leagues. |
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| | #166 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| NL hitters have upper hand With two months' worth of games in the books, one conclusion we can draw about the 2008 season is that the National League isn't just for pitchers anymore. At just about every offensive position, NL players lead the way over their American League counterparts. A look at Roto dollar values through May can give us a bit of perspective on what we thought we knew heading into the season and what we know now. (All values for standard AL- or NL-only 5x5 leagues.) Catcher NL: Brian McCann ($23). As hot as Atlanta Braves teammate Chipper Jones was in May (.417), McCann came relatively close to matching him (.367). His batting average and run-scoring abilities give him the nod over Chicago Cubs rookie Geovany Soto ($21). atlantabraves.com AL: Mike Napoli ($17). If your team can weather his .220 batting average, Napoli has been the best of a weak AL crop. His 10 home runs, 23 RBI and three stolen bases all led the league's other catchers — but that's not saying much. Player to watch: Victor Martinez ($7). Despite a .292 average, he didn't have a home run through May. After leading the league in hitting in April, he managed a .221 mark in May. Which way does he go from here? First base NL: Lance Berkman ($53). He's the top overall fantasy performer through the first two months of the season. Not only is he battling for the NL triple crown (he was second in homers and batting average and third in RBI), he was the runaway leader in runs and was in the top 10 in stolen bases. If Berkman can keep this up, we could be seeing one of the greatest fantasy seasons of all time. AL: Kevin Youkilis ($30). He's always been able to get on base, but the knock against Youkilis was he didn't hit for power. That's not the case this season since he had already slammed nine homers and driven in 35 runs. And by getting on base so often, he led AL first basemen in runs. Player to watch: Jason Giambi ($21). After an all-or-nothing April in which he hit .164, Giambi might be a fantasy factor again. His .315 average in May came with a .644 slugging percentage. Believe it or not, he led AL first basemen in homers with 11. Second base NL: Chase Utley ($43). Expectations were high coming into the season, and Utley has lived up to them. He led the majors with 19 homers and was tops in the NL with 49 RBI. AL: Ian Kinsler ($42). Is there anyone having a more dominant under-the-radar fantasy season than the Texas Rangers second baseman? Kinsler led the AL in runs, he hadn't been caught in 15 steal attempts and he was blowing away the rest of his AL competition in homers and RBI. All this and a .300 batting average, too. Player to watch: Dan Uggla ($35). The Florida Marlins mainstay wasn't that far behind Utley in homers and RBI, plus he was hitting .300 — a far cry from the .188 average he had three weeks into the season. Shortstop NL: Hanley Ramirez ($33). Despite a failed three-week experiment when he was moved from the leadoff to the No. 3 spot and hit .268 with one homer and four RBI, Ramirez still had better overall numbers than fellow position standouts Jose Reyes ($32) and Miguel Tejada ($29). newyorkmets.com AL: Michael Young ($25). While the NL has an embarrassment of riches at short, the AL is sorely lacking in offensive standouts. Young has been the steadiest of the bunch. Player to watch: Had it not been for a back injury that's sidelined him since May 5, Rafael Furcal ($25) might have been atop the list. Can he continue to do everything as well (five homers, eight stolen bases, .366 average) once he returns from the DL? Third base NL: Chipper Jones ($36). An everyday player hitting .413 will do wonders for a fantasy team's batting average. But Chipper isn't just about base hits. He had 12 homers and an impressive .653 slugging percentage. Plus, he led all third basemen with 40 runs. AL: Adrian Beltre ($26). What? No Alex Rodriguez? Well, A-Rod's time on the disabled list helped bump him out of his traditional spot atop AL third basemen, but Beltre has been reasonably productive all season long. He led the group in homers with 12 and was 5-for-6 in stolen-base attempts. Player to watch: Garrett Atkins ($21). He started slowly but had a huge second half last season. Overall, his .313-8-30 line doesn't look bad, but he'll need to start another extended hot streak soon after finishing May in a 1-for-19 skid to duplicate his numbers from last season. Outfield NL: Nate McLouth ($36), Jason Bay ($31), Ryan Ludwick ($31). Say what you will about the Pittsburgh Pirates, but their outfield has been fantasy gold. McLouth continues to prove the skeptics wrong and has even more upside in the stolen-base department. Bay is making last season's struggles look like an aberration. Another Pirate, Xavier Nady ($28), almost made the list. Ludwick, meanwhile, has provided powerful protection (13 homers) for Albert Pujols in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup. AL: Josh Hamilton ($44), Jacoby Ellsbury ($42), Carlos Quentin ($39). Playing time was an issue for all three this spring, but they've put those concerns to rest with outstanding starts. Hamilton's 61 RBI were far and away the most in the majors. Ellsbury led all major leaguers with 26 stolen bases (in 28 attempts), and Quentin was tied with Hamilton for the most homers in the AL. Player to watch: Nick Markakis ($26). Traditionally a slow starter, Markakis was more than 30 points below his career average of .290. He caught fire in the second half of last season, so there might be time to acquire him before he does it again. Starting pitchers NL: Brandon Webb ($38), Edinson Volquez ($32), Tim Lincecum ($29). Webb's dominance aside, pitchers don't necessarily have to be on a good team to be successful —especially when they can strike batters out with regularity the way Volquez and Lincecum have done. AL: Cliff Lee ($32), Roy Halladay ($30), Ervin Santana ($30). Lee has looked a bit more mortal in his last few starts but had a WHIP of 0.96 and he's striking out 5.7 batters for every walk. Halladay's K/BB ratio was at a major league-leading 6.45. Santana was his usual dominant self at home, but he had improved considerably on the road (4-1, 1.18 WHIP). Player to watch: Scott Kazmir ($20). He missed the first month with an elbow injury, but it took him just only starts in May to become a top-15 starter in the AL. He was holding opponents to a .172 average and striking out better than a batter an inning. Now that the Tampa Bay Rays are winning, watch out. Closer NL: Jose Valverde ($30). After some initial struggles, the Houston Astros have gotten exactly what they wanted in Valverde. He had given up a run in only one of his last 20 appearances dating to April 20. AL: Jonathan Papelbon ($31). With 32 strikeouts and three walks in 26 innings to go with his 16 saves, he continues to dominate hitters. Player to watch: Jon Rauch ($25). Just a shade behind Valverde and Kerry Wood among NL closers, Rauch was supposed to be a setup man for Chad Cordero. But after converting 12 of 14 save opportunities, he has more than proved he can get the job done. But what happens when Cordero is finally healthy? |
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| | #167 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Fairness with free agents By Patrick Davitt and Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com Growing numbers of fantasy baseball leagues are using Free Agent Acquisition Budgets — commonly known as FAAB — for awarding free agent players. FAAB adds complexity, but it's fairer than traditional methods — and it offers owners extra opportunities to outmaneuver opponents. Most leagues award free agents to teams using one of two methods. First-come, first-served is quick and clean but punishes owners who can't hover by their computer 24 hours a day. Other leagues award free agents by reverse order of the standings, which promotes parity but also rewards poor play. In addition, neither method establishes a legitimate value for free agents. Particularly in leagues where players are kept from one season to the next, these methods often assign players a minimal salary or low-round slot that is out of sync with the player's true value in a competitive market. FAAB creates that market. In FAAB leagues, each team starts with a set amount ($100 is typical), usually a virtual amount that does not involve actual cash. Every week, teams bid some or all of their FAAB dollars in a blind auction on free agents. The league commissioner or stat provider examines bids and awards players to the top bidders. Successful bid amounts are deducted from each owner's remaining FAAB budget. Ties are broken by reverse order of standings. Some leagues award ties to earlier bidders. Strategy and tactics How to make the most of FAAB starts with considering league formats and rules. * Hoarding FAAB: AL- or NL-only leagues seem to create strategic incentives for owners to hoard FAAB, hoping to land premium players. Think Mark Teixeira going from the Texas Rangers to the Atlanta Braves last season. Leagues without reserve or farm lists encourage FAAB hoarding, as owners hope to snag prize minor league call-ups such as Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw. But hoarding is often a poor tactic, imposing costs by not replacing injured, ineffective or demoted players, and by not dropping zero- or negative-value players. These costs are lessened in leagues that allow $0 FAAB bids and amplified in leagues with higher minimum bids. Hoarding also imposes risks. Player moves might not happen or the stud might get hurt or underperform. Most league crossovers happen around the July 31 trading deadline, leaving just two months for the player to have an impact, and amplifying the impact of a 10-game slump or minor injury. Mixed leagues don't have crossovers, and shallow mixed leagues (15 teams or fewer) encourage activity with rich free agent pools, especially for pitchers and outfielders. * FAAB bid limits: Some leagues have minimum bids, some have maximums, and others allow $0 bids. Minimums mean owners can't "churn" the free agent pool all year for two-start pitchers or matchup advantages, because they will run out of FAAB. The higher the minimum, the sooner they go broke. * Adding to the FAAB budget: Some leagues allow owners to trade for FAAB dollars. Often leagues will "refund" FAAB for the salaries of players traded out of league or injured for the remainder of the season. These adjustments can ruin the most carefully laid plan to outbid an opponent. * The Vickrey method: This is a FAAB auction in which the winning bid is reset to the second-highest bid plus one unit. Proponents say Vickrey better approximates the true player value in open auctions because nobody would bid $21 to top $9. * Keeper-league considerations: In many leagues, the winning FAAB bid is the player's keeper salary, or bids are converted to round levels for snake draft keepers. Owners must weigh the need to bid aggressively for immediate needs against the future value of rostering players at lower bids. These considerations, in turn, are affected in leagues that prohibit keeping free agents or require keeping high-dollar free agents. 10 tips for managing FAAB 1. Remember that FAAB is a method for distributing players, not managing rosters. Your free agent activity should begin by assessing your needs, projecting your league to year-end and identifying potential gains. Then you target free agents, using the same skills and role-change criteria you would use if you weren't in a FAAB league. Only then do you consider bidding tactics. 2. Scale your bids to the player's relative impact and its likelihood. A temporary replacement for a short DL stint is not worth half your budget. Nor is an injury-prone or inconsistent player. Getting a player with blossoming skills or potential for good playing time might well be. 3. Remember, you're bidding against other owners. Weigh their needs in comparison with yours. If you can't move in the stolen-base category, there's no point in going all-in on a speedster (except to deny him to a competitor or to use as trade bait). If nobody else in your league needs a catcher, there's no point going all-in on Jarrod Saltalamacchia. 4. Monitor competitors' bidding. FAAB auctions are like poker; you learn a lot from how players bet winning and losing hands. Most stat sites let you see every bid. Checking your opponents' bids — win or lose — gives insight into how they might act later. 5. It can be OK to lose out in the bidding. It's important to beat out owners near you in category or overall standings, but remember that it's fine to lose a free agent to a team that might help you by passing your competitors. 6. Play for this season if you're competitive. In leagues where the winning FAAB bid sets the salary, it can be tempting to bid low in hopes of getting a valuable keeper. But if you're competitive this year, thinking ahead to next year can cost you a player who can help you win now. Conversely … 7. …Make lots of minimum bids if you're rebuilding. Especially if your league's minimums are low, load up on cheap players, audition them, toss back the bums and repeat. This method is especially useful for acquiring skilled but underappreciated bullpen artists who might suddenly step up in roles. 8. Watch for playing time changes from July deadline deals. Our attention is typically on superstars changing leagues. But someone, including the cheap young guys going the other way, has to replace the departing at-bats or innings pitched. This can be a great time for bargain-hunting, but look for skills, not just playing time. MLB teams audition bums, too. 9. Don't overbid in Vickrey leagues. It's tempting to bid high on a tasty free agent, expecting to pay far less when Vickrey cuts your cost to second bid plus a buck. But if even one other owner has the same idea (and one will), you'll be stuck. Bid the player's true worth, and be happy if you happen to get a discount. 10. Remember it is likely you will overbid. Without going into economic theory, we know auctions for assets of unknown real value (ballplayers, oil leases) have an inherent "winner's disadvantage" — the winning bid is guaranteed the least profit. You can't let that deter you from bidding to value in your circumstances. It's an imperfect system built on hugely imperfect information. You can't expect perfect outcomes. |
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| | #168 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| End of the Line for Smoltz? Less than 48 hours after returning from the disabled list as a reliever and blowing his first save chance since 2004, John Smoltz's season is over and his Hall of Fame career is in jeopardy. Smoltz woke up Tuesday morning with pain in his right shoulder and the Braves announced Wednesday that he has a season-ending injury. Smoltz had previously said that he'd likely retire rather than go through another surgery, but backtracked from that during a press conference. atlantabraves.com He's scheduled to go under the knife next week after being examined by Dr. James Andrews and indicated that he's not yet ready to retire. "I said I'd retire if the desire was gone, but I'm not there yet," Smoltz said. "I'm not there emotionally. Physically, that's still to be determined. I've pulled off a lot of miracles. I probably shouldn't have played this long. I'm looking forward to seeing if I can extend it." With Smoltz out, the Braves' bullpen is once again wide open. Manny Acosta got the call with a ninth-inning lead Wednesday night, but coughed up four runs on a pair of two-run homers to blow the save. Rafael Soriano figures to receive the next save chance and is a good bet to thrive in the role if he can remain healthy for once, but the Braves will also soon have another option if Mike Gonzalez is able to avoid a setback in his return from elbow surgery of his own. While Smoltz tries to delay what should be a date with Cooperstown beyond 2013, here are some other notes from around baseball … * Pedro Martinez was expected to be on a limit of about 80 pitches in his return from the disabled list Tuesday, but ended up throwing 106 pitches while allowing three runs over six innings against the Giants. It wasn't a great outing, but Martinez picked up his first win since last September and showed off better velocity than he had in his previous start on April 1. His fastball was clocked at 88-91 miles per hour, which is basically what he's been working with for the past 3-4 seasons. Martinez being allowed to go well past his expected pitch count is probably a pretty good sign given that he hadn't faced big leaguers for over two months and he clearly still has more than enough life on his fastball to makes his always outstanding off-speed stuff effective. He'll get an extremely favorable matchup Sunday by facing the Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where they've averaged a measly 3.7 runs per game this season. * When they matched up during interleague play on May 18, Cliff Lee was 5-0 with an AL-leading 0.67 ERA and Edinson Volquez was 6-1 with an NL-leading 1.12 mark. Volquez beat Lee that day and the two pitchers have been on different paths since. Volquez shut out the Phillies for seven innings Wednesday, improving to 8-2 with a 1.32 ERA on the year. Lee allowed six runs Wednesday versus the Rangers and has now given up 16 runs over his last 23.1 innings. Lee's ERA has risen from 0.67 to 2.45 in just three weeks, but it's worth noting that he faced the Rangers' league-leading offense twice during that stretch and still managed to post 21 strikeouts versus seven walks. He remains a sell-high candidate because maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA isn't doable, but Lee continues to look like a much different pitcher this season and even after some rough outings ranks third among AL starters in Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) behind only Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett. Meanwhile, Volquez ranks second to Brandon Webb among NL starters in xFIP and has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his 12 starts. His 1.32 ERA is obviously not sustainable, but a 91-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio and high ground-ball percentage suggest that he's performed like a 2.50-2.75 ERA pitcher thus far, which is amazing for a 24-year-old who calls a hitter's ballpark home. Like Lee, he's a sell-high candidate without being likely to fall apart, so shop patiently. AL Quick Hits: General manager Theo Epstein said Tuesday that David Ortiz (wrist) will be in a cast for at least 2-3 weeks, but indicated that the Red Sox have zero interest in signing Barry Bonds … After sitting out five weeks with a shoulder injury, Jorge Posada returned from the disabled list Wednesday and is expected to resume starting Thursday … Joe Mauer homered off a southpaw Wednesday for the second time this week, and collected a rare two-RBI sacrifice fly thanks to Adam Jones falling down and Carlos Gomez running very fast … Jose Lopez failed to homer during a 51-game stretch from April 6 to June 1, but has now gone deep in three straight games … Joel Zumaya (shoulder) touched 100 miles per hour with his fastball during his first minor-league rehab appearance Tuesday at Single-A … Starting his sixth straight game since returning from Triple-A, Travis Buck went 2-for-5 with a homer Wednesday … Casey Kotchman had six homers through April 23, but has now gone 37 straight games without a long ball … Ryan Garko drove in six runs on four singles Wednesday … Rod Barajas left Wednesday's game with back tightness, potentially pushing Curtis Thigpen into a starting role. NL Quick Hits: Matt Holliday (hamstring) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Thursday at Triple-A and is eyeing a June 10 return … Jose Reyes went 3-for-4 with a homer and a steal Wednesday, making him 42-for-135 (.311) with six homers, 19 RBIs, 26 runs scored, and 13 steals in 32 games since May 1 … Noah Lowry continues to feel tingling in his forearm three months after surgery and manager Bruce Bochy said Wednesday that he's "questionable" to pitch this season … Aaron Cook tossed eight innings of one-run ball Wednesday, improving to 8-3 while the rest of the Rockies' rotation is 7-23 … Eric Gagne (shoulder) played catch from 100 feet Wednesday and said afterward that he's hoping to return from next week … Brett Myers took a no-hitter into the seventh inning Wednesday, but ended up walking six in a loss … Ken Griffey Jr. (knee) drew a walk as a pinch-hitter Wednesday, but was replaced by a pinch-runner … Corey Hart smacked a three-run, inside-the-park homer Wednesday, going back-to-back with Russell Branyan's over-the-fence blast. newyorkmets.com |
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| | #169 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Old and Improved A rainstorm Thursday afternoon knocked out my internet connection for 15 hours (and counting), forcing me on a road trip in the name of typing up a bunch of stuff for you to read. Yes, I'm willing to leave the house for my beloved Daily Dose. Like Rockies hitters and Padres pitchers my production isn't nearly as impressive away from home, so forgive me if hours of waiting on hold so that someone could tell me "we show no problems in your area" has reduced my brain to mush. While a couple days without my darling internet puts my sanity and usefulness to the test, here are some notes from around baseball … * After two strong years in the White Sox's rotation Jose Contreras fell apart last season, going 10-17 with a 5.57 ERA. At 36 years old he looked highly unlikely to bounce back this season, but Contreras has somehow managed to reinvent himself as a strike-throwing, ground-ball machine after years of struggling with command. Contreras held the Royals to one run over seven innings Thursday while issuing zero free passes, giving him just 19 walks in a dozen starts. Beyond that, he's induced a ground ball on nearly 60 percent of his balls in play this season after previously failing to coax even 50 percent grounders during any of his first four years as a starter. Shutting down the Royals is no great accomplishment at this point, but Contreras hasn't allowed more than two runs in any start since May 4 and now sports a 2.76 ERA that is half of last year's mark. He's still plenty risky, but a legitimate change in style is behind his improved results. * J.R. Towles was one of my favorite NL-only hitting sleepers, but he's been an absolute mess at the plate and the Astros finally ran out of patience. Towles hit .375 in his first taste of the majors last season after batting .301/.389/.471 in the minors, but is 17-for-117 (.145) this season and is now headed back to Triple-A. Keeper leaguers shouldn't give up on Towles yet, because he's still just 24 years old and showed decent power with strong plate discipline while struggling overall. Houston deserves credit for sticking with him this long, because Towles has gone 5-for-56 (.089) since May 1 and most teams likely would have given up on him weeks ago. Of course, part of the reason for the Astros' patience is that their other options behind the plate are Brad Ausmus and Humberto Quintero, so as bad as Towles has been they're far from guaranteed to get much more production from their new catching duo. Neither player has a chance to be a fantasy asset. * With Tony Pena Jr. supplying a historic lack of offense and recent call-up Mike Aviles showing that his glove is stretched in the middle infield, the Royals have decided to give Esteban German an extended look at shortstop. German also figures to be overmatched there defensively as an everyday player given that he's logged a total of just 28 innings at the position in the majors and was primarily a second baseman in the minors. However, the Royals are no doubt making the move in an effort to get improved production at the plate and German is a .279/.364/.383 career hitter. He has just seven career homers in 905 plate appearances, but has drawn 95 walks while scoring 114 runs and stealing 23 bases. Manager Trey Hillman may soon conclude that German simply isn't capable of playing shortstop on a regular basis, but in the meantime he makes for a nice pickup in AL-only leagues. * Todd Wellemeyer was a mediocre 28-year-old middle reliever when the Cardinals claimed him off waivers last May, but pitching coach Dave Duncan convinced manager Tony La Russa to give him a chance in the rotation and he's quietly been one of the league's best starters since then. Wellemeyer tossed six shutout innings Thursday against the Nationals, making him 5-0 over his last seven starts and 10-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 98-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 career starts. AL Quick Hits: Vernon Wells (wrist) is ahead of schedule after beginning a minor-league rehab assignment Thursday at Single-A and is hoping to return as soon as next week … Jorge Posada (shoulder) revealed Thursday that he plans to undergo labrum surgery following the season, but will play through the injury for now … B.J. Ryan blew a save Thursday for the second straight game and has shown some signs of wearing down after initially pitching brilliantly upon returning from Tommy John surgery … Scott Baker (groin) returned from the disabled list Thursday, holding the Orioles to a pair of runs over five innings … Manager Dave Trembley said Thursday that Adam Loewen (elbow) will pitch out of the bullpen when he returns from the disabled list next month … Clay Buchholz threw five scoreless innings Wednesday at Triple-A … Michael Young extended his hitting streak to 21 games Thursday by going 3-for-5 with a homer … Rocked by the Blue Jays for seven runs Thursday, Chien-Ming Wang hasn't won since May 2 and has allowed 23 earned runs over his last 23.2 innings. NL Quick Hits: Manager Charlie Manuel pulled Jimmy Rollins from Thursday's game in the fourth inning for failing to run out a pop up … Chipper Jones collected four hits Thursday, including his 400th career homer … Jake Peavy (elbow) threw a 45-pitch bullpen session Thursday and said afterward that "everything went well" … Ryan Doumit (thumb) is slated to return from the disabled list Friday about two weeks ahead of schedule … Matt Kemp received a four-game suspension for his role in Tuesday's bench-clearing brawl with the Rockies … Ken Griffey Jr. returned to the lineup Thursday after missing three straight starts and narrowly missed connecting on his 600th career homer … Paul Lo Duca (hand) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment this weekend, but has likely lost his starting job to Jesus Flores … Troy Tulowitzki (quadriceps) is set to begin a rehab stint next week, saying Thursday that "it's getting really close if there are no setbacks" … Released Thursday by the Reds, Scott Hatteberg should latch on somewhere soon as a platoon starter or bench bat. |
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| | #170 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Slowey cooking We'll get to Kevin Slowey and the rest of this week's waiver additions in a moment. You can pick whoever you want off the waiver wire, but you'll never be able to duplicate what the White Sox did in picking this guy in the draft on Thursday: Check out that hairdo. How does a baseball hat fit over that? What is he hiding? A scar? A big forehead? A family of squirrels? Is that a meathead haircut or an emo haircut? Does he have to pay royalties to Donald Trump? How intimidated are opposing pitchers when that thing steps into the batters box (no helmet could possibly contain it)? Everything I've come to know about baseball has been thrown upside down by this. I've spent the last 24 hours pondering it, and will likely spend at least a couple more. In the meantime, here are some waiver adds to consider: National League 1. Troy Tulowitzki – SS – COL - There's no denying that Tulowitzki got off to a disappointing start this season, managing just 16 hits in his first 105 at-bats. He was a bit overrated following the Rockies playoff run last season, but he wasn't as bad as his early numbers indicate. He was victimized by a brutal .172 BABIP. Tulo seems on the verge of starting a rehab assignment, and if he returns to form, he'll likely wind up back in the second spot in Colorado's lineup, and to the second tier of fantasy shortstops. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues 2. Chris Snyder – C – ARI - After the All Star break last season, Snyder posted a .292/.386/.503 line. He got off to a slow start in April, finishing the month with an average of .200, but he's gone 24-for-78 since with four home runs. He's still seeing the majority of playing time over Miguel Montero, and can be used even in mixed leagues. Recommendation: Worth using in mixed leagues. 3. Cody Ross – OF- FLA - So far this season, Cody Ross has just 23 hits in 112 at-bats. That's not very fantasy-worthy, but 10 of those 23 hits have been home runs. Ross is part of a crowded outfield, and usually only starts against lefties, but Jacque Jones isn't making much of a case to keep taking time away from him. Ross hit .306 off righties in over 100 at-bats last season, so it's possible the Marlins could start using him more regularly. If you have daily roster flexibility, Ross' power makes him an intriguing option. His .205 average should keep rising, ultimately ending up closer to .250. Recommendation: Worth owning in NL-only leagues, consider in mixed. 4. Homer Bailey- SP – CIN - Bailey is a bit of an overvalued name, mainly because of, well, his name. It's catchy. Bailey was also a top prospect quite recently, although the last two seasons have removed a bit of his luster. He will be a valuable fantasy pitcher at some point in his career, but for now he's not displaying the control to succeed in the major leagues. He makes the best fit on teams that have deep benches and afford to wait for something to click. Hope for it, but don't count on it this season, though. Recommendation: Worth grabbing in NL-only leagues, watch in mixed. 5. Chad Tracy – 1B/3B – ARI - Since being activated on May 26, Chad Tracy has appeared in ten games, going 6-for-29 with two homers. On the surface, he seems like a logical upgrade over Mark Reynolds against right-handed pitchers, but Reynolds has hit righties just as well as lefties over his career, and while his average is 25 points lower against righties this year, eight of his 11 homers have come off them. Reynolds is also starting to heat up again, so when Conor Jackson returns, Tracy's playing time could be limited. Recommendation: Worth owning in NL-only leagues. 6. Aaron Boone/Kory Casto – 3B/1B – WAS - Ryan Zimmerman is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, and Boone will get the first crack at replacing him at third. He's hitting .273 with an OPS of .821, but is just 7-for-39 since Zimmerman went down. Don't be surprised if Kory Casto starts eating significant portions of his playing time. Casto has struggled in his previous major league experiences, but he was hitting well in Triple-A and is off to a 5-for-9 start with the Nats. Recommendation: Grab Boone in NL-only leagues, Casto worth a flier 7. Chris Coste – C – PHI - Coste continues to defy the odds by hitting .317 in his third season of major league action. He's continued to see his fair share of playing time, and has tallied a .317/.383/.567 line with six homers in 104 at-bats this season. Don't expect him to maintain his current level of success, but NL leaguers can use him while he's hot. Recommendation: Should be owned in NL-only leagues. 8. Manny Acosta – RP – ATL - Rafael Soriano is again the clear favorite to get saves now that John Smoltz is done for the season, but Manny Acosta should still get some scattered opportunities despite his meltdown on Tuesday. That might only last until Mike Gonzalez returns, but NL-only teams desperate for saves should consider Acosta in the meantime. Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues. American League 1. J.D. Drew – OF – BOS - With David Ortiz on the disabled list, J.D. Drew has spent the last two games in the third spot in the lineup against right-handed pitchers. In the last five games, he's tallied five runs and five RBI. Drew has been grabbed in most leagues, but if he's available in yours, it's worth adding his .303/.406/.473 line for at least as long as Ortiz is out. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 2. Kevin Slowey – SP – MIN - Slowey is sporting a 3.76 ERA to go along with a sparkling 1.06 WHIP and a 26/6 K/BB ratio. So far this year, his main problem has been that he's allowed 8 homers in just over 40 innings, an astronomical rate that he hasn't corrected since last season. It's worth noting, however, that four of those homers came against the White Sox and Rockies in both team's homer-friendly parks. Also, by limiting the base runners he allows, the damage has been minimized. Slowey will have a Maddux-like effect on a team's WHIP, and shouldn't hurt in other areas if played against the right team and in the right stadium. Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues. 3. Travis Buck – OF - OAK - Buck has become a regular in Oakland's offense, starting against left-handed pitchers for back-to-back days. After struggling to start the season and then suffering from shin splints, Travis Buck was optioned to the minor leagues after a trip to the disabled list. He hit .337/.425/.467 in 92 at-bats in the PCL, and has gone 6-for-25 with two homers and five RBI in six games since returning. He's a huge injury risk, but could hit around .280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases if he stays healthy for the rest of the season. Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues, worth consideration in mixed leagues. 4. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – C – TEX - Saltalamacchia still isn't a regular member of the Rangers offense, but he's hit .279/.417/.471 despite sitting a few days a week. In just 68 at-bats he's tallied three homers, displaying above average power for a catcher. It seems like it's only a matter of time before the Rangers start using him more often at first base and as a DH. He's available in most leagues still, and is a fine investment at catcher. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 5. Miguel Olivo – C – KC - Olivo has always hit left-handed pitching well, but his .287 average against right-handed pitchers is about a 60 point improvement on his career average. Now that the Royals have recalled Brayan Pena, they are poised to use Olivo as their designated hitter when he's not behind the plate. Olivo has plenty of power, but not the 30 homer pace he's currently on. Still, while his batting average won't stay at this level, he should contribute solid power from the catcher position if he sticks in KC's lineup. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 6. Jeremy Guthrie – SP - BAL - Guthrie is owned in fewer than 10 percent of fantasy leagues, largely because he keeps taking hard luck losses. He's pitched five consecutive quality starts, but has just one win in that time thanks to poor run support. His 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP will likely help most fantasy teams, though, and both are numbers he managed to sustain last season. He's not a huge source of strikeouts, and that he's managed just nine wins in 39 starts while sporting an ERA around 3.60 with the Orioles is laughable. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 7. Coco Crisp – OF – BOS - With David Ortiz sideline, the Red Sox seem to be set on playing Coco Crisp in center with Jacoby Ellsbury in left. Crisp has been hot and cold this season, but since Ortiz went on the DL he's gone 4-for-8 (and done a great job avoiding a James Shields hook). He's hitting .261/.308/.396 this season, and is stuck in the bottom of the lineup, but while his power has disappeared, he's still a nice source of steals. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 8. Alexei Ramirez – 2B/OF – CHW - Ramirez was covered here a couple weeks ago, but it's become clear that he's taken the second base job from Juan Uribe. Since assuming regular playing time, he's gone 22-for-64, with two homers and eight RBI. On Thursday, he was hitting in the second spot in the White Sox order, and while that's likely not a permanent move, it reflects the team's confidence in him. Ramirez has made rookie mistakes in the field, but on Wednesday he made four impressive barehanded plays that also showed off his cannon of an arm. He has the power to hit another 15 homers if he sticks in the lineup. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 9. Michael Cuddyer – OF- MIN - After missing most of April with a finger injury, Michael Cuddyer got off to a tough start, hitting just .212 in May. He's finally started to show signs of life, going 9-for-21 in the last week with a homer and five RBI. He's available in almost 66 percent of fantasy leagues, and makes a quality fourth outfielder in mixed leagues. Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues. 10. Carlos Gonzalez – OF – OAK - In the spirit of synergy, I'd like to point you to my colleague Nate Stephen's excellent column covering the week's minor league callups, including an in-depth look at Gonzalez, Josh Anderson, Chris Carter, Jeff Larish, Radhames Liz and others. Recommendation: Should be claimed in AL-only leagues. 11. Esteban German – SS – KC - The Royals have decided to give Esteban German an extended look at shortstop, despite his current .167 average. Much like his solid 2006 campaign was driven by a fortunate BABIP, his 2008 effort has been damaged by a tough-luck BABIP that currently sits at .235. The reality is that he's really about a .280 hitter with little power or speed, but he's still a decent pickup in AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues. |
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| | #171 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Joshs Up, Joba Gets Screwed Up Big Papi hurting, the Josh's (Beckett and Banks) smoking, and Joba lays an egg. All that and more in this week's Week That Was. David Ortiz: According to reports out of Boston, it is unlikely that Big Papi will need surgery on his injured wrist. This is good news for Papi owners, but by no means a cause for celebration. Hand and wrist injuries have a way of lingering and sapping hitters of their customary power. If you own Ortiz, you have no choice but to hope and wait for him to return from the DL. If and when he does, wait for a couple of dingers and then sing and dance about how Big Papi is back and sell – yes, SELL. This is not a year where Ortiz will hit over .300 or get anywhere near the 40+ HR he hit each year from 04-06. Someone in your league will pay for the Papi of old. Make them. Ryan Doumit: In a move that may be missed by some fantasy players, the Bucs activated Ryan Doumit from the DL. If you can grab Doumit, do it. Yes, he is a weak defensive catcher, but hey, its fantasy, so who cares? What Doumit can do is hit. Before landing on the shelf, Ryan was raking at a .350 clip. Last year, Doumit hit a gaudy .415 at AAA before being brought to the show where he hit a respectable .274. Bottom line: it is very hard to find good hitting catchers in fantasy. Here is one worth owning in any type of league where defense does not matter. Josh Banks: Continuing his improbable run, Josh Banks gave up just one run in six innings Thursday against the Mets. Banks now has a shake the head and do a double take 0.39 ERA. Bottom line here is that he is hot and one would be smart to ride a hot streak for a little while. However, be mindful that the streak will end. After all, Banks had ERAs of 4.63 and 5.18 in AAA in the last two years. Look at it this way, owning Josh Banks right now is like being at a hot craps table with the chips piling up. You know you have to bail out soon, but when? Well, if someone is willing to give you a boatload of chips for Banks and his mini ERA now, then now is the time to TAKE THE MONEY! Kory Casto: Kory Casto looked good Thursday night, going 3-4 with a pair of RBI. True, Casto did not do the job in the show last year, hitting a paltry .130. However, Casto was hitting .315 in AAA and is off to a good start in the big leagues this year. Given that both Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson are on the shelf, Dimitri Young is hardly an iron man, and Aaron Boone is a shadow of the guy who hit the miracle homer in game 7 of the ALCS in 2003, Casto should get ample opportunity to produce. Buy. Jason Giambi: Jason Giambi hit a majestic, dramatic, two out, two strike, two run homer in the bottom of the ninth to lead the Yankees over the Jays Thursday. Don't look now, but Giambi, who is in his walk year, looks better than he has in a very long time. First, he is hitting to all fields for the first time in what seems like forever. Second, he has raised his average up to almost .260 to go with his dozen dingers. While there is certainly risk here, if you are looking for a potential big producer who can still be had cheap, Giambi could be your man. Just talk about steroids, his age, and the Yankees slow start and get him cheap. He could be a major bargain. Wilson Betemit: Wilson Betemit smacked his second dinger in as many days for the Yankees Thursday. I have to tell you that this is a tough one from a fantasy perspective. Pros: he has hit 32 HR in 613 AB over the last two years; he is the perfect age to break out (26); he has 3 games at SS and therefore, in many leagues, he is MI eligible. Cons: playing time is very hard to find on the Yankees. My view – Betemit will get some time spelling various Yankees and take all of Shelly Duncan's time. Buy. Scott Hatteberg: In a widely expected move, the Reds released Scott Hatteberg despite that fact that he hit .289 and .310 in the last two years respectively. There are many reasons that the T in SMART stands for Team. One is that good teams stick with veterans longer, while bad teams are quick to bring up their youngsters and let them learn in the show. That is what happened with the woeful Reds. Ok, enough preaching. Watch this situation. If Hatteberg lands in a place where he will get the lefty hitter part of a 1B or DH platoon, he will be worth an investment. Cliff Lee: Cliff Lee got spanked on Wednesday, giving up six runs in five innings. However, when you are going good like Lee is, a team that has not hit at all hits for you. So, Lee got a win despite his weak outing. Fantasy analysis – the lucky win notwithstanding, the end of the Cinderella run is here. Lee had two truly miserable years in a row, including a 6.29 ERA last year in the bigs. If you drafted Lee, you already scored big time. Collect your winnings now. To put it another way and to quote the Kenny Rogers who does not pitch for Detroit, "know when to fold 'em." Josh Beckett: Josh Beckett looked strong this week, tossing six innings of one-run ball. Despite a slow start, Beckett (who I think was robbed of a Cy Young last year), has been lights out three starts in a row. If there is any way to buy, do it. This guy is just special. Slow start and all, he has 80 strikeouts against just 14 walks. Pay what it takes. Joba Chamberlain: In the first chapter of the book entitled "How to Screw Up a Franchise Pitcher," Joba Chamberlain lasted an ugly 2 1/3 innings in his start earlier this week. To make matters worse, Kyle Farnsworth continues to prove he is good in the 6th and 7th and scary bad in the 8th and 9th. It will not happen, but boy I wish they would just pull some sleight of hand here, like the way Bobby Ewing stepped out of the shower after supposedly being dead for a whole year (80's hit Dallas reference for those too young or too cultured to remember). I would like to wake up and find out Joba has been throwing 100 MPH darts in the 8th inning the whole time. Note to self: wake up. Bottom line: Joba will be a top of the line starter, but not this year in fantasy. And finally, this from the baron of the bottom of page -- Schultz Says: "Schultz is on hiatus this week: while experimenting with talking in the third person, Schultz will be in New Hampshire for a pair of shows featuring Grace Potter & The Nocturnals, The Leaves and Jen Crowell & The Woods. Schultz suggests that you all take a moment to search out some of their music and give it a listen. Schultz promises your fantasy baseball team will be better as a result of your efforts." Response: The best Schultz says ever! Bravo! |
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| | #172 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Byrd's the word It's an interleague week, so teams like Boston and New York will be playing in National league parks this weekend, and certain NL pitchers will have to face designated hitters over the weekend. Make sure your designated hitter will play over the weekend before sticking him in your lineup, and you might want to sit some of your more borderline NL pitchers if they face a team with a solid DH. Here's what else is happening this week: Two-Start Pitchers American League Must-Start Options Josh Beckett – BAL (Daniel Cabrera), @CIN (Homer Bailey) John Danks – MIN (Glen Perkins), COL (Glendon Rusch) Jose Contreras - @DET (Nate Robertson), COL (Aaron Cook) Cliff Lee - @DET (Armando Galarraga), SD (Wilfredo Ledezma) C.C. Sabathia – MIN (Scott Baker), SD (Greg Maddux) Joe Saunders – TB (Edwin Jackson), ATL (Tom Glavine) Mike Mussina – KC (Luke Hochevar), @HOU (Wandy Rodriguez) Chien-Ming Wang - @OAK (Dana Eveland), @HOU (Roy Oswalt) Erik Bedard - @TOR (Jesse Litsch), WAS (Tyler Clippard) Jesse Litsch – SEA (Erik Bedard), CHC (Ted Lilly) Other Options Luke Hochevar - @NYY (Mike Mussina), @ARI (Randy Johnson) Glen Perkins - @CHW (John Danks), @MIL (Jeff Suppan) Carlos Silva - @TOR (Dustin McGowan), WAS (John Lannan) Edwin Jackson - @LAA (Joe Saunders), FLA (Ricky Nolasco) Kevin Millwood - @KC (Gil Meche), @NYM (John Maine) Armando Galarraga – CLE (Cliff Lee), LAD (Brad Penny) Daniel Cabrera - @BOS (Josh Beckett), PIT (Paul Maholm) Scott Baker - @CLE (C.C. Sabathia), @MIL (Seth McClung) Dana Eveland – NYY (Chien-Ming Wang), @SF (Pat Misch) National League Must-Start Options Randy Johnson - @PIT (Zach Duke), KC (Luke Hochevar) Micah Owings - @NYM (John Maine), KC (Gil Meche) Tom Glavine - @CHC (Ted Lilly), @LAA (Joe Saunders) Ted Lilly – ATL (Tom Glavine), @TOR (Jesse Litsch) Edinson Volquez - @FLA (Mark Hendrickson), BOS (Undecided) Aaron Cook – SF (Pat Misch), @CHW (Jose Contreras) Roy Oswalt – MIL (Seth McClung), NYY (Chien-Ming Wang) Todd Wellemeyer - @CIN (Homer Bailey), PHI (Brett Myers) Greg Maddux – LAD (Clayton Kershaw), @CLE (C.C. Sabathia) Matt Cain - @WAS (Tyler Clippard), OAK (Rich Harden) Clayton Kershaw – @SD (Greg Maddux), @DET (Nate Robertson) Other Options Homer Bailey – STL (Todd Wellemeyer), BOS (Josh Beckett) Mark Hendrickson – CIN (Edinson Volquez), @TB (Matt Garza) Ricky Nolasco – PHI (Brett Myers), @TB (Edwin Jackson) Seth McClung - @HOU (Roy Oswalt), MIN (Scott Baker) John Maine – ARI (Micah Owings), TEX (Kevin Millwood) Brett Myers - @FLA (Ricky Nolasco), @STL (Todd Wellemeyer) Zach Duke – ARI (Randy Johnson), @BAL (Radhames Liz) Paul Maholm – WAS (John Lannan), @BAL (Daniel Cabrera) Pat Misch - @COL (Aaron Cook), OAK (Dana Eveland) Tyler Clippard – SF (Matt Cain), @SEA (Erik Bedard) John Lannan - @PIT (Paul Maholm), @SEA (Carlos Silva) Possible Streamers The following pitchers are available in a majority of mixed leagues and might be worth using in one or both of their starts this week. American League Monday, 6/9 – Jesse Litsch vs. SEA – Litsch will square off against Erik Bedard which is really the only bad news for this start. He's 7-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.24 WHIP so far this season. His strikeout totals are unimpressive, but going against Seattle's unimpressive offense should be make for a solid outing. Monday, 6/9 – Mike Mussina vs. KC – Kansas City has fallen to being the worst offense in the major leagues. Mussina is 9-4 with a 4.01 ERA this season, and he should be good for a win against Luke Hochevar and the Royals. Wednesday, 6/11 - Paul Byrd vs. Minnesota – In his lone start against the Twins this year, Byrd allowed just one run and six hits in seven innings. Over the past three seasons, he's 6-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP against the Twinkies. So far this year, when pitching at home, he's 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA over 33 1/3 innings. Friday, 6/13 – Greg Smith @ SF – Smith is sporting a 3.56 ERA so far this season, with a 1.20 WHIP and 53 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings. The Giants are one of the worst offenses in the National League, and their ballpark is generally a nice place to pitch (unless you're Oliver Perez). Also - he gets to face the pitcher. National League Tuesday, 6/10 – Aaron Cook vs. SF – Cook and his 3.16 ERA are owned in two-thirds of all leagues, but if he's available in yours for some reason, he's worth grabbing for his start against the Giants on Tuesday. His second start against the White Sox is not nearly as attractive. Thursday, 6/12 – Hiroki Kuroda @ SD – San Diego has scored the fewest runs in the National League, and while at least a part of that can be blamed on their home park, that's where this game is happening. Coming off a shutout of the Cubs, Kuroda will look to match his seven-inning outing against the Padres earlier this year, in which he gave up just one run. Total Games American League 7: CHIW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN, NYY 6: BAL, BOS, LAA, OAK, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR National League 7: ARI, CIN, FLA, PIT, SF, WAS 6: ATL, CHC, COL, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, SD, STL, Righty vs. Lefty Match-ups American League Baltimore - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties Boston - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Chicago White Sox - 2 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties Cleveland - 6 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Detroit - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Kansas City - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Los Angeles Angels - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Minnesota - 4 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties New York Yankees - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Oakland - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Seattle - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Tampa Bay – 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Texas - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Toronto - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Notes: The Orioles face four left-handed pitchers next week, which could be good news for Ramon Hernandez, who is hitting .290 off them this season. Adam Jones is batting .325 off lefties so far, and Nick Markakis is hitting .339 off them. Melvin Mora has a .320 average against lefties, and Dave Roberts is hitting .311 off them. The White Sox face five lefties next week, which might be bad news for Joe Crede, who is hitting just .103 off them this year. Toby Hall and his .500 average against lefties could steal a couple games from A.J. Pierzynski and his .238 average. Carlos Quentin hits just .309 off left-handed hitters, but Alexei Ramirez is hitting .313 off them. The Angels face three left-handed pitchers and just three righties this week, so Erick Aybar (.382 vs LHP) should have a solid week. Casey Kotchman (.395 vs. LHP) should also benefit. By hitting .262 against them, Gary Matthews Jr. is hitting lefties over 50 points better than righties. Mike Napoli (.176 vs. LHP) might get an extra day off. The Athletics have three games against lefties, so Travis Buck (.120 vs. LHP) could see reduced playing time. Emil Brown (.313 vs. LHP) is worth using, while Mark Ellis (.148 vs. LHP) could struggle. Kurt Suzuki (.226 vs. LHP) could also get an extra day off. National League: Arizona - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Atlanta - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Chicago Cubs - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Cincinnati - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Colorado - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties Florida - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Houston - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Los Angeles Dodgers – 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Milwaukee - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties New York Mets - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties Philadelphia - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties Pittsburgh - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties San Diego - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties San Francisco - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties St. Louis - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties Washington - 3 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties Notes: The Rockies face three left-handed pitchers, which is great news for Garrett Atkins, who is hitting .514 off them. Todd Helton is hitting just .250 off them. It could also be good news for Chris Iannetta, who is hitting .538 off them this season. Ryan Spilborghs is hitting .357 off lefties. The Padres face three lefties, which isn't great news for Adrian Gonzalez (.229 vs. LHP), but he should obviously be played anyway. Scott Hairston has hit just .175 off lefties this season, and Tadahito Iguchi is hitting just .184 off them. Kevin Kouzmanoff should have a nice week, as he's hit .333 off lefties thus far this season. The Nationals face four left-handed pitchers. Aaron Boone could have a decent week, as he's hitting .341 off lefties. Elijah Dukes, meanwhile, is hitting just .056 off southpaws. Jesus Flores is hitting an impressive .360 off lefties. The Injury Bug For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page. Chone Figgins – 3B – Hamstring – Return mid-June Kelvim Escobar – SP – Shoulder – Out indefinitely, could return as reliever Frank Thomas – DH – Quadriceps – Return mid-June Aaron Hill – 2B – head – Return mid-June Gregg Zaun – C – Elbow – Return late June Vernon Wells – OF – Wrist – Return early July Mark Kotsay – OF – Back – Out indefinitely John Smoltz – P – Shoulder – Return June 13 Eric Gagne – RP – Shoulder – Return early June Jason Isringhausen – Hand – Return late June Chris Carpenter – SP – Elbow – Return late July Eric Byrnes – OF – Hamstring – Return mid-June Aaron Rowand – OF – Hamstring – Day-to-day Rafael Furcal – SS- Back – Return early June Travis Hafner – DH – Shoulder- Return mid-June Jake Westbrook – SP – Elbow – Likely out for season Fausto Carmona – SP – Hip – Return late June Chris Young – SP – Face – Out indefinitely Jake Peavy – SP – Elbow – Return early June Jayson Werth – OF – Abdomen – Return mid-June Troy Percival – RP – Leg – Return mid-June Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – shoulder – Out indefinitely Tadahito Iguchi – 2B – shoulder – Return mid-July Matt Holliday – OF – Hamstring – Return mid-June Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Quadriceps – Return July Jorge Posada – C – Shoulder- Return early June Carlos Pena – 1B – finger – Return late June David Ortiz – DH – Wrist – Return mid-July Waiver Wired For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired. AL 1. J.D. Drew 2. Kevin Slowey 3. Travis Buck 4. 5. Miguel Olivo NL 1. Troy Tulowitzki 2. Chris Snyder 3. Cody Ross 4. Homer Bailey 5. Chad Tracy |
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| | #173 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| AL Team-by-Team Notes With all of the screaming and fist-shaking in regards to Josh Hamilton's ranking, no one took issue with me placing Milton Bradley about 10 spots too low last week. Bradley is nearly as much of an injury risk as Hamilton, but he's the AL OPS leader by a wide margin right now and he shows no signs of slowing down. If he actually plays in 140-150 games and remains one of the AL's best, it's going to be awfully interesting to see what kind of contract he gets this winter. This is his ninth year, but he's still only 30 years old. A healthy season would make him at least as worthy of a three-year, $36 million deal as Jose Guillen was last winter. American League Notes Baltimore - Adam Jones has doubled his season total with two homers this month and matched his previously monthly high for RBI with nine. Still, all of the swings and misses don't bode well for him putting together a massive hot streak anytime soon. He'll probably finish his first full season with about 15 homers and steals, but since he doesn't have the OBP to hit high in the order, his run and RBI numbers will remain mediocre. It was worth taking a chance on him in mixed leagues going in, but it looks like it will be 2009 before he's particularly useful. … Radhames Liz is getting a look as a starter in place of Steve Trachsel. Many think the 24-year-old is going to end up as a major league closer or setup man, but when he has command of his mid-90s fastball, he should be able to go five or six solid innings. It probably won't happen enough to give him any value in AL-only leagues. … Freddie Bynum's hold on the shortstop position appears to be slipping away. Not only is he hitting just .219/.260/.274, but he's been thrown out on three of his four steal attempts. Alex Cintron appears likely to take over as a regular in the near future. Boston - It's anyone's guess whether David Ortiz will be 100 percent after returning from a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. The Red Sox seem very optimistic that he will make it back, probably in early July, but it's possible he won't show his usual power at any point during the rest of the season. Of course, Ortiz spent three months last year deviating from his usual approach and managed to be an extremely productive singles and doubles hitter with his knee causing him problems. Perhaps something similar will happen this year, and the month off will help out with the leg problems he's still experiencing. It's also the case that this was the absolute best month of the season for Ortiz to miss. Now the Red Sox will go with Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell as full-time players in their nine games in NL parks. … While the Red Sox lineup as a whole will suffer with Ortiz out, J.D. Drew should benefit as the new No. 3 hitter against right-handers. He's worth grabbing in any mixed leagues in which he's available. … Besides Ortiz, the Red Sox also have Jacoby Ellsbury (wrist) and Manny Ramirez (hamstring) banged up and Coco Crisp will eventually have to serve his seven-game suspension. That should give Brandon Moss some short-term fantasy value. Chicago - It was a distant second to the complaints about Hamilton's ranking, but Gavin Floyd's absence from the SP list in last week's column was also something that drew criticism. I just find it hard to get behind a flyball pitcher with a poor strikeout rate in a home run ballpark. He's been the biggest beneficiary of the AL's power outage this season. His flyball rate is right where it always is, and he's striking out only a batter every other inning, yet his home run rate is half what it was last year. I don't see him retaining any value in mixed leagues with the summer months here, and I'd definitely be looking to sell high now. … Juan Uribe hasn't made even one start since coming off the disabled list on May 31. He might find himself on the waiver wire soon if Alexei Ramirez can put together a couple of more good weeks. The Orioles and Nationals are two teams that figure to be quite interested if he becomes available. Cleveland - The Indians will miss Jake Westbrook after his decision to undergo Tommy John surgery, but they'll still have one of the game's top rotations after Fausto Carmona returns from a strained oblique. Aaron Laffey now has a permanent spot, so he should remain worth using in mixed leagues for the long term. Jeremy Sowers will be the fifth starter until Carmona returns. Unfortunately, there isn't much depth left beyond Sowers, as Adam Miller is out until at least late August following finger surgery. Southpaw David Huff, who just moved up to Triple-A Buffalo, is probably next on the depth chart. … Michael Aubrey's exit is giving Ryan Garko another chance to play everyday, and though Casey Blake has gotten hot, the Indians have still been able to work in Andy Marte because of Travis Hafner's absence. However, Marte has just one extra-base hit in 46 at-bats. The Indians are probably better off with Shin-Soo Choo at DH and Blake at third right now. … Since the Indians spend the third week of the month playing in NL parks, they're not having Hafner (shoulder) try and rush back. Ideally, he'd return on June 24, which is when the Indians return home to finish the interleague schedule. Detroit - Jeremy Bonderman wasn't nearly as good of a bet as Westbrook for the rest of the season, yet losing him hurts Detroit more than the Westbrook's absence damages the Indians' chances. With Bonderman needing surgery to take care of a blood clot, the Tigers will turn back to Armando Galarraga in the rotation. He's been a nice surprise so far, but there's little in his history that suggests he'll keep it up, and the Tigers have no more solid options in reserve. Yorman Bazardo hasn't pulled off a quick turnaround at Toledo, and Virgil Vasquez has struggled all year. Either Casey Fossum or failed former Cardinals first-round pick Chris Lambert is probably next in line for a rotation spot. … Better news is that the Tigers could get both Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney back from shoulder injures in one-to-two weeks. Zumaya's velocity is reportedly back, so mixed leaguers may want to stash him away. If the Tigers are out of the race in the second half, they'll probably want to give Zumaya a chance to close. … The Tigers have the same sort of schedule as the Indians, so they may wait until June 24 to bring Gary Sheffield back from a strained oblique. Jeff Larish hasn't gotten off to a fast start as Sheffield's replacement, so he's in definite danger of being demoted in the coming weeks. Kansas City - Tony Pena Jr.'s complete inability to hit appears to have cost him his job. However, the Royals haven't simply turned to Alberto Callaspo. They gave Esteban German a brief look last week and then started Mike Aviles on Saturday. Callaspo is probably the best combination of offense and defense in the group, though he profiles better at second base. German's struggles to find any sort of role in the Royals' plans this year has him looking like trade bait. Aviles can replace him as Kansas City's offensive-minded utilityman. … It looked like the Royals were bringing in Brayan Pena to free up Miguel Olivo for DH duties, but they stuck with seven infielders and dropped the third catcher after just one day. Fortunately, they're still using Olivo more as a DH of late. The strikeout-prone backstop is sure to cool off, but he's a fair option in mixed leagues at the moment. … The move to drop Brett Tomko from the rotation to make room for Kyle Davies was overdue -- the mistake was handing Tomko a rotation spot on a silver platter in the first place -- but Davies isn't likely to be of any use in AL-only rotation. The strikeouts just aren't there, something that will surely take a toll on his ERA as time goes by. Los Angeles - A few of my readers seem to think Vladimir Guerrero is through as an elite fantasy outfielder. Maybe keeping him in the third spot in the outfield rankings with a bit too ambitious, but I'm not ready to bet against a guy who hit .324 and drove in 125 runs last season. On the other hand, Guerrero hasn't bounced back as a basestealer at all and the expected improvement behind him in the Angels' lineup hasn't helped him in runs scored. I fully expect him to hit over .300 with good power the rest of the way, but if Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick continue to struggle to stay healthy and Gary Matthews Jr. doesn't get his act together, then Guerrero won't excel in runs and RBI and I will have overrated him. … Figgins (hamstring) is set to begin a rehab assignment on Monday, so AL-only leaguers can take a chance and activate him for the week. Erick Aybar (finger) appears to be at least a week away. Minnesota - There's a reasonable chance that we'll see Francisco Liriano back in the majors before the end of the month. He's been in the low-90s consistently of late in Triple-A, and he said he's touched 95-96 mph at times. His command still isn't quite where it should be, but it has gotten better. With the way he's throwing now, he could be a reasonable third or fourth starter during the final three months or perhaps something more down the stretch. Think about picking him up if he was dropped in your mixed league. … It's time to sell Nick Blackburn while he still might have some value. It always made sense that the league would start to catch up to him his second time through, and he's currently giving up 2 ½ hits for every strikeout he records. … Juan Rincon's time in a Twins uniform could be about to come to an end. He had a very nice run as a setup man, but he lost it last year and the team made a mistake by not parting with him then (although he was set to be included in the Delmon Young deal before the Rays insisted on prospect Eduardo Morlan instead). Unless his stuff comes back, he's done. New York - Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi are really picking up the slack with Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter and Melky Cabrera continuing to post disappointing numbers. Damon's average is all the way up to .326 after Saturday's game, and he's on pace for 100 runs and 26 steals. I'd call him a sell-high candidate, but I still don't think his perceived value has caught up with his actual value after his rough 2007. He can be an asset in mixed leagues all season long. Giambi probably won't be, though he shouldn't be unowned in any format while he's hot. In nine relatively full months since July 2006, Giambi has hit over .300 three times and under .200 five times. Hitters don't come any streakier. … Andy Pettitte's strikeout rate is OK and his walk rate is good, yet his ERA stands at 4.99. He's giving up both too many hits and homers. That he was able to post a 4.05 ERA last year despite a subpar WHIP was partly due to his good fortune at keeping the ball in the park. However, he's allowed 10 homers this year after giving up a total of 16 in 215 1/3 innings in 2007. It doesn't seem very likely that he'll post an ERA much better than 4.50 the rest of the way. Still, because of the run support he gets, it's worth sticking with him in mixed leagues. At the very least, he needs to be held on to through the end of interleague play. He's due to face the A's, Padres and Pirates in his next three starts. Oakland - Eric Chavez does have a homer in seven games since coming off the disabled list, but he appears to be a ways away from being a decent play in shallow mixed leagues. He's probably looking at a lot of off days against lefties until he proves he's 100 percent, and he's not in a great situation for RBI opportunities, even if he is hitting in the middle of the order. He might not be worth using in shallow leagues at any point during the season. … The A's finish their interleague road schedule on June 20, so neither Frank Thomas (quad) nor Mike Sweeney (knee) will return before then. Thomas may have the better chance of coming back on that day. … Ryan Sweeney (toe) is ready to play and didn't even really need a DL stint in the first place. He can be activated on Friday, but the A's will have to decide whether there's room for him, Carlos Gonzalez and Travis Buck in their outfield. One of the three will probably be sent down, and it could be this week's performance that determines the choice. My guess is that Gonzalez still has some minor league time in his future. Seattle - Wladimir Balentien has been stuck on four homers and nine RBI for more than three weeks now and is losing time against right-handers to Jeremy Reed. He's still too raw of a talent to be kept in the majors as a bench player, so it's possible he'll be returned to Triple-A soon. If it happens, Victor Diaz would be the logical choice to replace him. He'd start versus lefties, with Reed playing against righties. Reed might not do more than hit for a modest average, but at least he'd be a nice defensive upgrade on a team that needs it. … Carlos Silva has been awful lately and Jarrod Washburn keeps being pushed back whenever opportunity allows for it, but Miguel Batista continues to look like the weakest link in Seattle's rotation. He has a .305 average against, and he's walking a ridiculous two batters every three innings. The Mariners need to make the switch to knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Unfortunately, Ryan Feierabend, who would have been the other option to fill in, is on Triple-A Tacoma's disabled list with a sore elbow. Brandon Morrow apparently won't get a look as a starter anytime soon. … Morrow is a sleeper anyway with J.J. Putz looking like he's still hurting. He's supposed to be past a mysterious finger problem now, but it'd be nice to see improved velocity and command soon. Tampa Bay - Carlos Pena wasn't producing at nearly the same rate he did last year, but his loss to a fractured finger still seemed to take some of the wind from the Rays' sails. Gabe Gross is the biggest beneficiary of Pena's absence, as he'll be playing a lot of right field against right-handers with Eric Hinske moving to the infield. He'll get even more time when Carl Crawford eventually serves his four-game suspension. He's worth using in AL-only leagues. … Willy Aybar seemed like a long shot for fantasy value when the Rays made room for him by demoting Ben Zobrist, but Pena's injury and last week's suspensions have made him a decent pickup. He'll play first base against lefties and get some additional starts at second and DH this month. … Troy Percival (hamstring) is eligible to return on Friday and is expected to go right back into the closer's role then. Texas - If only every team had as much pitching as Texas. The Rangers traded away the current major league ERA leader over the winter and now have made in-season cuts of a 4-1 starter (Sidney Ponson) and a reliever with a 2.08 ERA in 21 2/3 IP (Franklyn German). … Ponson wasn't much of a loss, but the Rangers are short of potential replacements. Odds are that they'll go right back to Kason Gabbard after only recently demoting him because of his command woes. Eric Hurley and Luis Mendoza aren't ready to help, and the Rangers don't seem to trust Robinson Tejeda even though he had a lot more success as a starter than as a reliever in Triple-A. Tejeda should have already been starting over Doug Mathis. … Michael Young's fractured fingertip is a source of concern, even if it kept him out of only one game. His numbers will likely suffer if he has to deal with pain every time he makes contact. Toronto - The surprise return of Vernon Wells from a broken wrist on Saturday needs to knock Shannon Stewart out of Toronto's lineup. Stewart will probably keep his roster spot -- Kevin Mench would seem to be in the most danger of getting bumped after Aaron Hill (concussion) comes off the disabled list -- but Stewart has been useless against right-handers and isn't even an asset defensively these days. A Brad Wilkerson-Stewart platoon could be set up. However, the Jays need to give Adam Lind a real opportunity in left field sometime soon. … Scott Rolen has kept his average up, but it's been a month since he's homered and he's driven in seven runs in 29 games despite mostly batting cleanup. If the Jays are looking to shake things up a bit, maybe they could try him as a leadoff hitter. He certainly has the OBP, and he's a great baserunner. Since, it doesn't look like his shoulder will allow him to reemerge as a power hitter, he's not a strong play in mixed leagues. … With Hill set to miss at least another week, Marco Scutaro will start at second base. |
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| | #174 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| NL Team-by-Team Notes Ryan Zimmerman will have his status reevaluated Monday. Unable to play through what's being called a small tear in the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder, he's now had two full weeks of rest. Still, it'll be a while longer before we know whether it's done him any good. Zimmerman has resisted getting a cortisone shot to mask the pain, and indications are that he'll eventually need surgery. He's yet to resume swinging a bat. That the Nationals are in last place with little chance of moving up makes it more likely that the surgery will come before the end of the season. I can't help but wonder if Zimmerman would still be in the lineup right now had he and the Nationals been able to work out a long-term deal during their attempts the past two offseasons. With nothing guaranteed beyond the $465,000 he's currently making, Zimmerman would be doing the prudent thing by making sure he's 100 percent in 2009. It's possible there's more to this story that any of us know, but plenty of players have gutted it out with damage to their non-throwing shoulders. National League Notes Arizona - Justin Upton has been in an ugly slump for a month now, but it's merely served to put his numbers back in line with preseason expectations. The kid is just 20 years old, and he didn't figure to be a real asset in shallow mixed leagues until 2009. Perhaps that's been revised some -- he could hit another 16-18 homers this year and be a modest contributor in shallow formats -- but he still strikes out too much to hit for average and he's not stealing bases at all. It's the lack of steals that is the real disappointment from a fantasy perspective. He had 34 in 216 games as a minor leaguer, but he's just 1-for-3 through 60 games this year. … Chad Tracy couldn't get hot while Conor Jackson was nursing a strained quad, so it's doubtful that this will be the week he'll take over at third base. The Diamondbacks will have the opportunity to get Tracy more at-bats when they spend six games in AL parks later this month, but it doesn't look like he'll have much value until then. Atlanta - John Smoltz (shoulder) is done for the year and the Braves have serious questions about what they're going to get from Rafael Soriano, so Mike Gonzalez's return from Tommy John surgery looms large. It's easy to see Gonzalez taking over as Atlanta's closer and getting 15-20 saves the rest of the way. A healthy Soriano is likely the better pitcher of the two, but it's close and the Braves may never have Soriano at 100 percent anyway. Gonzalez needs to be picked up in any leagues in which he remains available. He figures to be activated this week. … Mark Kotsay's back doesn't seem to be any better after nearly two weeks off, and this may turn into another long-term problem for the 32-year-old. If that's the case, we could be about a month away from seeing Jordan Schafer make his major league debut. He's been productive at Double-A Mississippi since returning from his 50-game hGH suspension, and the Braves indicated on several occasions this spring that they wouldn't be afraid to turn to him this season. He's a sleeper for the second half. atlantabraves.com Chicago - Not looking to sit on the game's best record, the Cubs are considering skipping their fifth starter whenever possible through the All-Star break. What little value Sean Gallagher has would disappear if that materializes. It's hard to see how the potential reward outweighs the risk, especially since they'd be putting more pressure on a guy who is just returning to the rotation after several years in the pen and a lefty with a history of shoulder issues. Plus, young pitchers hardly ever seem to do well when being jerked around, which is what would happen with Gallagher. … The Cubs will likely call up either Micah Hoffpauir or Matt Murton to help out as a DH in AL parks. Hoffpauir is the favorite to get the nod, and he could have a little short-term fantasy value when it happens. Cincinnati - In three starts since his surprise four-inning relief appearance in an 18-inning game on May 25, Aaron Harang has allowed 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. His velocity was clearly down in his loss to the Marlins on Sunday, and though he was still getting outs with his slider, he's a much better pitcher if he's able touch 92-93 mph when he needs to. If things don't get better within his next couple of starts, it will suggest he's dealing with something more than just fatigue. … Jeff Keppinger (knee) and Alex Gonzalez (knee) seem to be making progress. Keppinger is due back first, but it's not all that likely that he'll be activated this week. Jerry Hairston Jr. should be moved into a utility role when Keppinger returns. … Homer Bailey didn't pitch badly in his 2008 debut against the Phillies on Thursday, but with starts against the Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees coming up, it's going to be some time before he's worth playing in NL-only leagues. Colorado - Brad Hawpe has been hot since returning from the disabled list and the Rockies will get Matt Holliday (hamstring) back on Tuesday, making their offense more imposing. Word is that Troy Tulowitzki (quad) is ahead of schedule and about two weeks away, and Clint Barmes (knee) could be back right around then, too. Those hoping for numbers from Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker will probably be left disappointed once those two return. … Not only is Yorvit Torrealba sporting a .260 OBP, but he's somehow gone 0-for-4 stealing bases. He's scored six runs all season. There's just no way he should be starting more than Chris Iannetta. Rockies pitchers have practically the same ERA with either on the mound, and Iannetta has been the better hitter by close to 350 points of OPS. Still, Torrealba has started four of seven games this month. Florida - In a mild surprise, Ryan Tucker beat Chris Volstad to the majors on Sunday. It was mostly because it was his day to pitch, and the Marlins needed a replacement for Burke Badenhop after using him in relief. However, Tucker made a case for sticking around. Using a 91-94 mph fastball and his plus change, Tucker limited the Reds to two hits in five innings. He did walk five in the process, but he struck out six. Tucker is the Marlins' No. 2 pitching prospect behind Volstad. It's unlikely that he's ready to be a consistent major league starter right now, but it'd be nice to have him stashed away in NL-only leagues. … A homer binge is going to earn Cody Ross a chance to start in center field against righties as well as lefties. He's actually hitting better versus righties so far this year, though his OPS against lefties is more than 200 points higher over the course of his career. He probably won't last as a regular, but there's a case for using him in mixed leagues right now. Jacque Jones isn't going to have any fantasy value until Ross cools off. … Mike Jacobs sat out against a lefty on Saturday and then a righty on Sunday. Bad defense would seem to be the primary reason. Jacobs is on pace for 30 homers, but his future in Florida still isn't secure. If the Marlins fall back in the standings, a Jacobs trade at the deadline would be a real possibility. The team could move Jorge Cantu to first and try Dallas McPherson at third base. Houston - Hunter Pence should have been hitting high in the order all along, but the Astros do have him there now, with Michael Bourn dropped from leadoff to seventh. Ideally, Pence would be hitting second, giving him a few more RBI opportunities, but manager Cecil Cooper thinks that's Kaz Matsui's best spot. Bourn will lose value while hitting low in the order. He's not going to be driven in often at all by the catcher and pitcher. He still has some value in mixed leagues, but anyone able to play up his league-leading steal total should look to trade him. … The Astros decided they could wait no longer for J.R. Towles to start hitting, even though Brad Ausmus and Humberto Quintero is as bad of an offensive tandem as one can find above Double-A. Ideally, Towles would find his swing in Triple-A and return by the end of the month. The Astros can't live with Ausmus as a regular for long. They should see if the Orioles are ready to trade Ramon Hernandez or the Rangers are willing to part with Gerald Laird. They don't have a lot to offer, but Hernandez probably wouldn't cost very much. Unfortunately, Paul Lo Duca might be the best catcher to come available far in advance of the deadline. Los Angeles - The Dodgers traded for Angel Berroa and are expected to soon call up Andy LaRoche in an attempt to aid their infield. With neither Chin-Lung Hu nor Luis Maza contributing anything on offense, Berroa will get at least a brief look at short. The best-case scenario has Rafael Furcal (back) returning in a week. LaRoche isn't an option at short, but he has been playing second base in an attempt to increase his value. He'd be a backup at three infield spots and he'd see time as a DH in AL parks if recalled, so he'd probably have value in NL-only leagues. … Jason Schmidt's setback in his return from shoulder surgery would seem to guarantee Clayton Kershaw at least another couple of weeks in the majors. He'll get both the Padres and Tigers this week, and it's worth the risk to use him in mixed leagues. Milwaukee - Bill Hall has asked for a trade after being reduced to a platoon role, but it's going to be hard to move him given his defensive troubles since retuning to the infield and the $18.7 million he has left on his contract through 2010. He'd be worth that kind of money if he could still play a passable shortstop or second base, but he's been error-prone at an easier position this year. Also, he's hitting .167 against righties, which is the real reason he's lost his job. He'll likely stay in Milwaukee. An injury or a Russell Branyan slump will eventually give him another chance to play regularly. … If the Brewers opt to remove Mike Cameron from the second spot in the order as expected, he could cease being worth using in mixed leagues. J.J. Hardy would be the favorite to replace him, and he could again be worth playing in shallower formats if he's hitting in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. New York - The results have been less than stellar and there's always the possibility that another injury is around the corner, but Pedro Martinez is throwing well since returning from his hamstring strain. He's showing more velocity than he did after coming back from shoulder surgery at the end of last season, and the command will surely improve with more innings under his belt. Those needing to gamble should consider trading for him. … It's been nearly three weeks since Ryan Church suffered his second concussion of the year, but he remains clearly limited and may yet have to go on the disabled list. That his problems have lingered this long means there's no way of knowing just when he'll be 100 percent. There's a chance he'll be fine in a week and a chance that he'll be limited all year. … With Church's status in doubt, the Mets need to reconsider picking up an outfielder. Moises Alou obviously cannot be counted on, and Endy Chavez isn't the stopgap he was a couple of years ago. Xavier Nady, Randy Winn and Luke Scott should be available in trade before much longer, and Kenny Lofton is still out there. The Mets probably won't get desperate enough to consider Barry Bonds, but they need to do something. newyorkmets.com Philadelphia - Pedro Feliz is hitting .229/.280/.340 against righties this season, but the Phillies are still giving him the vast majority of the starts at third base over Greg Dobbs, who is sporting an OPS nearly 290 points higher. It's probably not an arrangement that's going to change unless the Phillies start getting less from the top half of the order. As is, they figure they're scoring enough runs to carry Feliz's glove. … On the other hand, the Phillies have started going for offense over defense at catcher. Chris Coste has started five of the eight games so far in June and appears set to finish the month with more at-bats than Carlos Ruiz for the first time. Coste, who didn't make his major league debut until his age-33 season in 2006, is hitting .310 with 18 homers and 71 RBI in 439 career at-bats. His power production figures to fall off as this season goes on, but he should maintain a fine average. Unfortunately, his defense behind the plate is rough enough that if there's only a modest difference in production, the Phillies would be better off going back to Ruiz. Pittsburgh - Assuming that the Pirates can sign Pedro Alvarez after making him the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, they'll suddenly find themselves in possession of two third basemen of the future. Jose Bautista's stock in the organization already appeared to be well down, and if he's still around in 2009, he'll probably be a utilityman. Neil Walker figured to be the long-term replacement for Bautista, but now it looks like he may eventually end up in outfield. A move back to catcher seems highly unlikely. It's possible that Walker could establish himself at third base next year and give the team reason to consider Alvarez at first base. However, Alvarez, probably the best fantasy prospect selected last week, is the potential star of the two and should be the one kept at third base if he shows the necessary range. By 2010, Alvarez, Walker, Andrew McCutchen and Steve Pearce could all be worthy of lineup spots. It gives the Pirates more flexibility if they get offers for Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche and Nady this summer. A lineup of CF McCutchen, 2B Freddy Sanchez, LF Nate McLouth, C Ryan Doumit, 3B Alvarez, 1B Pearce, RF Walker and SS Brian Bixler would be pretty interesting, particularly if the Pirates could do better than Bixler by getting a long-term shortstop in a Bay or LaRoche deal. St. Louis - With Todd Wellemeyer (elbow) and Adam Wainwright (finger) nursing injuries the Cardinals are hoping are minor, two additional starters could be needed this week. Mitchell Boggs will get the nod on Tuesday. He doesn't have much more than fourth- or fifth-starter stuff, but he'd still be an option in NL-only leagues if either Wellemeyer or Wainwright lands on the DL. Anthony Reyes and Jaime Garcia are possibilities to be called up to fill in for Wainwright. However, the Cardinals are also considering trying Kyle McClellan as a starter. It seems the least likely scenario, but if it happens, McClellan would be worth grabbing in mixed leagues. … Rick Ankiel's infected leg isn't expected to prevent him from returning this week. Still, mixed leaguers should have better alternatives for the short term. … Chris Duncan shouldn't be dropped in NL-only leagues. Expect to see him back in the majors when the Cardinals had to AL parks later this month. San Diego - The Blue Jays didn't think Josh Banks would ever cut it in their rotation, and they were probably right. A poor man's Josh Towers, he doesn't have the stuff to survive in the AL. However, his game is perfectly suited for Petco Park. He doesn't put people on base -- he has just two unintentional walks in 23 innings -- and the long flyballs he gives up will more frequently turn into outs in San Diego. He's still a poor bet to have any long-term value, as he'll only get to pitch in Petco half the time. I wouldn't trust him in fantasy leagues when the Padres play AL teams. … Jake Peavy (elbow) appears likely to return Thursday if a side session Monday goes well. Either Cha-Seung Baek or Wilfredo Ledezma will go to the pen to make room for him. I'm guessing Baek stays in the rotation. If he retains a spot, he could be an option in NL-only leagues after interleague play ends. … Edgar Gonzalez can be used in NL-only leagues while Tadahito Iguchi (shoulder) spends at least a month on the DL, but his upside is quite limited. Craig Stansberry would pick up at-bats if Gonzalez struggles. San Francisco - Bengie Molina isn't happy with the Giants after the team made catcher Buster Posey the fifth overall pick in last week's draft and GM Brian Sabean said the veteran has his "clock winding down." If everything goes according to plan, Posey would be ready to take over in 2010 after Molina's contract expires at the end of 2009. However, Molina has been better in his 30s than he was in his 20s and will be looking for another multiyear deal. He'll probably get it, too, even though he'll be entering his age-36 season. The controversy seems unlikely to result in a trade this summer. Because of the lack of catching available, Molina would likely bring more in return than any of the Giants' other potentially available hitters. However, San Francisco has no one to replace him and probably wouldn't want to risk the chemistry he's developed with members of the young pitching staff, Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez in particular. … Kevin Correia is set to return from a strained oblique in the weekend series against the A's. Pat Misch will be sent to the bullpen or the minors. Washington - The Nationals started Garrett Mock on Sunday and are calling up Tyler Clippard for Monday, but it looks like their rotation is unchanged. Odalis Perez hopes to return from shoulder tendinitis to pitch this week, and Shawn Hill is healthy enough to pitch right now. Clippard will have to wait for Perez or Hill to land on the DL before getting a longer look. … Ronnie Belliard (calf) is due back this week and could get regular at-bats between second and third base. The slumping Felipe Lopez stands to lose playing time. … Nick Johnson has the same tendon sheath injury as David Ortiz and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Now it looks like it'll be at least six weeks. No one should be expecting back before July 1 or possibly the All-Star break. |
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| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Notes From the Weekend Lots of stuff to get caught up on from a busy weekend, so let's get right to the notes from around baseball … * Jake Westbrook missed more than a month with a rib injury earlier this season, returning from the disabled list last week by holding the White Sox to three runs over five innings. Unfortunately, following that one start back he's now set for a much lengthier stay on the DL after complaining of elbow soreness. Westbrook is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, which would end his season and likely keep him sidelined through the All-Star break next year. For now Jeremy Sowers will replace Westbrook, but will no doubt be bumped from the rotation once Fausto Carmona returns in a few weeks and may even struggle to keep the job that long. Sowers was roughed up Sunday against the Tigers and is now 1-7 with a 6.50 ERA in 16 starts since going 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts as a rookie in 2006. Sowers is capable of being a passable fourth or fifth starter, but his lack of stuff simply won't allow much beyond that. * Justin Masterson turned in his third Quality Start in four tries Sunday, improving to 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA by holding the Mariners to one run over six innings. Masterson has recorded at least 18 outs in each of his four MLB starts, making up for a mediocre 18-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio by inducing a grounder on nearly 60 percent of his balls in play. For comparison, Brandon Webb leads baseball with 65.1 percent ground balls. Masterson beginning his big-league career as an extreme ground-ball pitcher is no fluke, as he used his heavy fastball-slider combo to induce 2.5 ground balls for every fly ball over the past two seasons in the minors. Masterson likely has 2-3 more starts to impress until Daisuke Matsuzaka returns from the disabled list and could work his way into the team's second-half plans regardless of Matsuzaka's status. His upside looks like a cross between Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson. * Chipper Jones has yet to slow down offensively, beginning this month by going 11-for-23 (.478) after hitting .410 in April and .417 in May, but as has been the case for the past 3-4 years nagging injuries have started to cut into his fantasy value. After missing five of the Braves' first 63 games, Jones was scratched from Sunday's lineup with a slightly torn quadriceps. That probably sounds a whole lot worse than it actually is, but he may still be sidelined for much of this week. * Already ranked 11th in the AL with a 4.87 ERA, the Tigers' rotation got more bad news Friday when Jeremy Bonderman underwent surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder. He'll likely miss the remainder of the season and may need additional surgery to remove a rib. Bonderman has hardly performed like an ace, but his 4.29 ERA ranks second-best among Tigers starters behind Armando Galarraga (3.70), who secures a long-term rotation spot thanks to the injury. * When the White Sox got June 2 off Joe Crede was sporting a .264/.333/.467 line that topped his career OPS by 50 points, but he's gone 11-for-18 (.611) with five homers and 12 RBIs since, including back-to-back two-homer games Friday and Saturday. In the span of five games Crede raised his OPS from .800 to .929, beating up the Twins to push the White Sox's lead to 5.5 games in the AL Central. Not bad for a guy the White Sox were trying to unload all winter. * Joba Chamberlain's second start wasn't especially impressive Sunday, but it was a step up from his rotation debut last week. Still on a limited pitch count as he continues to build up arm strength, Chamberlain lasted just 4.1 innings against the Royals while allowing three runs. After issuing five walks in his first start he handed out just one free pass Sunday, totaling five strikeouts while allowing five hits. He's still several starts away from an unlimited pitch count, but it's progress. * Ray Durham had the worst season of his career in 2007 and the 36-year-old appeared to be at the end of line after beginning this season with a measly .680 OPS through May 12, but after four hits Sunday he's now 29-for-79 (.367) in two-dozen games since. He hasn't shown much power during that stretch and Durham's days of being a 20-homer threat are likely gone for good, but he has done a great job controlling the strike zone and is on pace for his most steals since 2002. AL Quick Hits: Activated from the disabled list Saturday about a week earlier than expected, Vernon Wells (wrist) combined to go 5-for-7 with a homer in his first two games back … After nearly no-hitting them earlier this season, Gavin Floyd racked up a season-high nine strikeouts in Sunday's win over the Twins … Matt Garza was pulled from his start Sunday after four innings following a dugout scuffle with catcher Dioner Navarro … Billy Butler went 2-for-4 with a homer Saturday at Triple-A and is now hitting .375/.429/.688 since his surprising demotion … Alexei Ramirez went 3-for-4 with a homer Sunday, notching his ninth multi-hit game since mid-May while going 28-for-72 (.389) over that stretch … After another impressive outing Sunday against the Angels, Rich Harden now has a 2.85 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 47.1 innings … Kevin Slowey got knocked around for eight runs Sunday against the White Sox, watching his ERA balloon from 3.76 to 5.15 … Mike Sweeney is expected to miss 4-6 weeks after undergoing knee surgery and may not have a job once he returns. NL Quick Hits: Given with a very favorable on-paper matchup Sunday against the Padres in San Diego, Pedro Martinez allowed four runs on 10 hits over five innings … Ryan Howard doubled three times while driving in four runs Sunday, putting him on pace for 125 RBIs despite a .214 batting average and .775 OPS … Barry Zito put 11 runners on base Sunday, but picked up a rare victory to make him 2-9 with a 5.83 ERA … Matt Holliday (hamstring) went 4-for-4 in a minor-league rehab game Saturday and looks ready to come off the disabled list Tuesday … Jake Peavy (elbow) threw a 61-pitch simulated game Saturday, but indicated afterward that he may not be ready to rejoin the Padres' rotation this week … Playing in his first game since being demoted to Triple-A, Ronny Paulino went 5-for-5 with two homers Saturday … Carlos Delgado came up a homer short of the cycle Sunday, making him 15-for-39 (.385) during the past 11 games … No doubt cursed by being highlighted in this space last week, Todd Wellemeyer has been scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday with elbow soreness. |
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