Fantasy Baseball News 2008

[Hache Man]

600 for Junior
Fewer than 15,000 people saw it thanks to the game being played in Florida, but Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th career homer Monday. Griffey's first-inning blast off left-hander Mark Hendrickson was his first long ball of the month, just his third homer since mid-April, and only his second homer of the year against a southpaw. He's now 10 homers away from moving past Sammy Sosa to join Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays in the all-time top five.

While a 38-year-old Griffey takes a long, detour-filled path to eventually reach the destination that once seemed like a given when he was "Junior," here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Nothing official has been announced yet, but Eric Hurley is expected to make his major-league debut Thursday against the Royals. Considered by many to be among the elite pitching prospects in baseball heading into last season, Hurley saw his prospect stock drop somewhat after posting a 4.00 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. He's fallen even further this year, going 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA in 13 starts at Triple-A.

Lost in that ugly ERA is Hurley turning things around following a horrible start and his 72-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 74.2 innings is very strong for a 22-year-old at Triple-A. However, he's served up 15 homers in those 74.2 frames and ranks as one of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers in the minors. That's a very bad skill set to have when hoping to call the Rangers' power-boosting ballpark home, which is why Hurley is a poor bet in the short term and iffy in the long term.

* Last season it was Asdrubal Cabrera who came up from the minors to take over as the Indians' starting second baseman when Josh Barfield got off to a brutal start, but this season the script has been flipped. Cabrera was sent down Monday after hitting .184 through 52 games, as the Indians called Barfield up from Triple-A. Unfortunately, while Cabrera was deserving of a call-up last year after playing well in the minors, Barfield hit just .255/.297/.382 in 55 games at Triple-A.

Barfield was once considered a top prospect and batted .280 with 13 homers and 21 steals as a rookie for the Padres in 2006, but he hasn't hit since and doesn't figure to start now. He can still provide some value on the bases, which makes him a worthwhile pickup in AL-only leagues, but don't expect much of an impact offensively beyond the occasional homer. Cabrera remains the better option at second base, so bet on him reclaiming the job in the second half.

* It's tough to have much fantasy value while hitting .210, but Rickie Weeks has managed to be plenty productive with a 20-homer, 25-steal, 115-run pace. Unfortunately, he was placed on the disabled list Monday and is expected to miss a significant chunk of time with a sprained left knee. Hernan Iribarren is up from Triple-A to replace Weeks and could work his way into regular playing time at second base. He has little power, but is a career .318 hitter with some speed.

* Hitting coach Jeff Pentland got the ax Monday in Seattle, taking the blame for an MLB-worst record. In three seasons under Pentland's tutelage, Mariners hitters have ranked 13th, 14th, and 14th among AL teams in walks, so it's tough to defend the decision to fire him. With that said, Pentland figures to be followed out the door shortly by manager John McLaren, with general manager Bill Bavasi sticking around to turn off the office lights despite being primarily at fault.

Bavasi has made a series of poor free-agent signings and misguided trades, building a horrible, veteran-laden team that has gone 23-41 despite a $115 million payroll. Firing the hitting coach or the manager won't do any good if Bavasi remains at the helm, although the Mariners did win in dramatic fashion Monday when Miguel Cairo pulled off a successful ninth-inning squeeze bunt with the bases loaded. Of course, Cairo being on the roster to begin with is part of the problem.

AL Quick Hits: Dontrelle Willis turned in a brutal start Monday against the Indians, coughing up eight runs while recording just four outs … Alex Rios' power has been disappointing thus far, but after going 3-for-4 with a stolen base Monday he's already within two steals of last year's career-best total of 17 … After allowing 18 runs over his previous 23.1 innings, Cliff Lee bounced back with a solid, rain-shortened start Monday to win his 10th game … Nick Swisher homered from both sides of the plate Monday as the White Sox finished off a four-game sweep of the Twins for the first time since the 1970s … Ian Kennedy (bursitis) threw a bullpen session Monday and reported no problems, but may be headed back to Triple-A once he's healthy … There was initially some concern that Joey Gathright suffered a serious shoulder injury while making a diving catch Sunday, but he started in center field Monday … Adam Loewen (elbow) threw a two-inning simulated game Saturday and is slated to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Tuesday at Single-A.

NL Quick Hits: Matt Holliday (hamstring) is expected to return from the disabled list Tuesday after going 6-for-10 in three minor-league rehab games over the weekend … Manager Cecil Cooper said Sunday that Michael Bourn won't be moving back into the leadoff spot soon after hitting just .218/.280/.306 in 46 games atop the batting order … In what'll be the first big step in his recovery from a torn shoulder muscle, Chad Cordero is set to throw a bullpen session Wednesday … After previously losing playing time in a platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Bautista started at third base Monday for the ninth time in 10 games … Jerry Hairston is expected to miss 2-4 weeks after suffering a fractured thumb Monday, making Paul Janish the Reds' everyday shortstop … After missing a month with a fractured hand, Paul Lo Duca began what figures to be a brief rehab stint Sunday at Single-A … Andruw Jones is ahead of schedule in his recovery from knee surgery, but remains unlikely to return this month … After sitting out with the flu, Dmitri Young returned to the lineup Monday for the first time in six days.

[Hache Man]

Calf Injury Knocks Out Pujols
Albert Pujols has remained in the Cardinals' lineup while posting his usual 1.000 OPS despite a series of nagging injuries dating back to last season, but may have finally found something that even he can't play through. Pujols had to be helped off the field Tuesday night after aggravating the calf injury that's been bothering him for some time, and is now scheduled to leave the team in Cincinnati and fly back to St. Louis for further testing.

"Based on what I saw—and I'm not a doctor—it was pretty bad," general manager John Mozeliak said. Pujols has certainly shown in the past that he can play through various injuries and continue to dominate, but at first glance that seems unlikely in this case. Rookie Joe Mather replaced him at first base Tuesday and sliding Troy Glaus across the diamond is another option, but recalling Chris Duncan from Triple-A would also seemingly be a good fill-in choice.

Duncan was demoted last week after batting just .252/.356/.386 with his usual shaky defense in left field, but he posted an .802 OPS against right-handers and wouldn't be nearly as stretched at first base. Given their handedness a Duncan-Mather platoon would be a natural fit while allowing the Cardinals to leave Glaus at third base and thus avoid weakening the offense even further. In that scenario, Duncan would reclaim solid value in NL-only leagues.

While Pujols waits to see if he's headed for the first extended absence of his career after playing in 96.3 percent of his team's 1,200 games, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Scott Baker stopped the bleeding for Minnesota's pitching staff Tuesday, holding the Indians to one run over seven innings after the Twins coughed up 40 runs while being swept in a four-game series against the White Sox. Unfortunately for Baker he was matched up against C.C. Sabathia, who tossed a complete-game shutout. Handed a first-inning run to work with, Sabathia breezed through the Twins' lineup, throwing 77 of his 106 pitches for strikes while walking none.

Sabathia's overall ERA remains at a mediocre 4.34 thanks to a string of brutal April outings, but since then he's been every bit as dominant as he was while winning the AL Cy Young last year. If you set aside Sabathia's first four starts, he has a 2.09 ERA and 73-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 73.1 innings. It takes a long time for a stat line to recover from beginning the season 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA, but Sabathia is definitely back to being a fantasy stud.

* After being examined by doctors over the weekend, Rafael Furcal was told that his injured back won't allow him to see game action for at least two more weeks. Furcal had been hoping to return next Tuesday, but now figures to miss the remainder of the month and is far from a sure thing to be back prior to the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Nomar Garciaparra is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment this week and is eligible to return from the 60-day disabled list on June 25.

If Garciaparra beats Furcal back from the DL, the Dodgers have indicated that he'll get a chance to start at shortstop despite not having played the position since 2005. Since then he's played 1,588 innings at first base and 416 innings at third base, so returning to his old position at the age of 34 may prove to be a disaster. Of course, when the alternatives are Luis Maza or Angel Berroa suddenly taking a hit defensively doesn't sound so bad.

* Dontrelle Willis started Monday versus the Indians, allowing eight runs while throwing just 27 of his 64 pitches for strikes and walking five of the 12 batters he faced. That gave him a 10.32 ERA and 21 walks in 11.1 innings overall, and the Tigers decided that they'd seen enough, demoting him all the way down to Single-A. It's been a gradual decline followed by a sudden collapse for Willis, who saw his ERA rise from 2.63 in 2005 to 3.87 in 2006 and 5.17 in 2007.

Now he can't even find the plate, which perhaps isn't shocking given his odd throwing motion and 190 walks over the previous two seasons. Willis clearly needs to throw a whole bunch of innings in an effort to find some semblance of command and if they still have any notion of contending the Tigers simply couldn't afford to keep running him out there. Willis was one of my "bust" picks coming into the season, but that merely assumed that he'd pitch poorly, not completely implode.

AL Quick Hits: Manager Jim Leyland said Tuesday that Ivan Rodriguez and Brandon Inge will alternate starts behind the plate, suggesting that Rodriguez may not be long for Detroit … Called up from Triple-A to replace Asdrubal Cabrera at second base, Josh Barfield left Tuesday's game with a sprained finger and is considered day-to-day … Jose Contreras came into Tuesday's game against the Tigers at 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last six starts, but took the loss while allowing six runs on 13 hits … Dustin McGowan allowed one run in Tuesday's complete-game victory over the Mariners, matching a season-high with seven strikeouts … Rocco Baldelli went 1-for-4 in an extended spring training game Monday and could be close to beginning a minor-league rehab assignment … Curt Schilling (shoulder) threw 40 pitches off a mound Tuesday and reported no problems … Asked Monday about a rumor that the Cubs are interested in dealing for him, Gil Meche responded by asking "how's that going to happen?" while indicating that he'd block any move with his no-trade clause.
atlantabraves.com
NL Quick Hits: Jake Peavy (elbow) is scheduled to come off the disabled list with a start Thursday against the Dodgers … With Rickie Weeks (knee) on the DL, Bill Hall started at second base Tuesday for the first time since May of 2006 … Meanwhile, general manager Doug Melvin denied a rumor that the Brewers are interested in Brian Roberts … Initially expected to miss most of the season, Josh Johnson is ahead of schedule in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and could return around the All-Star break … With Jerry Hairston (finger) heading to the shelf Tuesday, the Reds are hoping that Jeff Keppinger (knee) is able to return by this weekend … Manager Bob Melvin said Monday that Chad Tracy isn't ready to play the outfield yet following knee surgery, but that "it certainly could be a consideration down the road" … Ryan Ludwick came into Tuesday's game hitting just .219 this month, but went 4-for-5 with a homer, two doubles, and four RBIs … As expected, Matt Holliday (hamstring) returned to the lineup Tuesday after the minimum stay on the DL. newyorkmets.com

[Hache Man]

MLB Draft Review 1-15
Last week's Rule 4 Draft saw 1,504 players selected who are now under control of major league teams, pending contract signing of course. For the most part only the first few rounds will be relevant for now, as we'll have to see which later round signability picks chose college and which can be lured by above slot bonuses. However, it's important to jump right on those high round selections, and I'm here for the third straight year to help assist those with dispersal drafts or regular keeper leagues. Those in one-year leagues will also have to pay attention, as the next Tim Lincecum can always be less than a year away.

While none of the top picks from last year's class are making the same impact that Lincecum did one year after his selection, the 2007 class looks better than the 2006 version in the long-run. David Price, Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, Matt LaPorta, and Jason Heyward (the top 5 players in this ranking last year, and also the best five so far) are all looking like Top 15 prospects and future All-Stars, and that's not to mention Jarrod Parker, Madison Bumgarner, Phillippe Aumont, and others who are tearing up the minors. The 2008 class has a different composition in that it's more college heavy and lacks last year's upside, but there's still an exciting first tier of players that goes 12 deep.

I'll start by ranking the Top 15 fantasy prospects in this week's column. Next week I'll do prospects 16-30, though it will be up on Friday due to travel constraints. While I tailor these rankings towards roto fantasy leagues, the application to sim leagues or even an appraisal of the real draft won't be very off in the case of most players. The rankings for previous years can be found in the archives (by some weird glitch when we changed formats two years ago, 1-16 from 2006 isn't on there; e-mail me and I'll send a PDF). I've also incorporated the worthy draft picks into the Season Pass Top 100.

Rule 4 Draft Outlook

Fantasy Rank. Name – Position, Team - Actual Round-Pick (Overall)

1. Pedro Alvarez – 3B, Pirates – 1.02 (2nd)

I debated the top two players for this ranking heavily and ended up reversing what I had in the Season Pass Top 100 for fantasy reasons. While Buster Posey is an excellent choice and a bit more of a sure thing, he'd have to be Mike Piazza to ever garner first round interest in a fantasy league. Pedro Alvarez's bat has first round upside and a good chance to reach it, so he gets the nod instead.

A 14th round pick out of the Bronx in 2005, Alvarez didn't get the big bonus he was looking for from the Red Sox and went off to Vanderbilt. He quickly established himself as the early favorite to go first in the 2008 draft by hitting .329/.456/.675 that included an impressive 22 homers and 64/57 K/BB. Despite being pitched around more often and given more attention in scouting reports, Alvarez posted very similar production as a sophomore.

2008 wasn't so kind for Alvarez, as he broke the hamate bone in his right hand in his first game of the season and missed a month. That type of injury is known to have significant lingering effects even after returning to action, especially in the power department. So it wasn't all that surprising to see Alvarez struggle as a junior. His .317/.424/.593 line was still solid, but he hit just nine homers and it was disappointing considering his previous feats. On the plus side, Alvarez posted the best K/BB of his career at 28/28, and is a good sign of him adjusting his game. Alvarez can mostly be given a pass for the down year, and the Pirates agreed when they popped him second overall.

When healthy, Alvarez has elite power both in batting practice and in games. The 6'2", 225-pound left-hander has extremely quick hands, loft to his swing, and has demonstrated the ability to hit the ball out to any part of the park. Alvarez is also a patient hitter that will look for a pitch to crush, is adept at handling southpaws, and has looked good in summer leagues with wood bats. On the downside Alvarez has had trouble with breaking balls at times and there were predraft rumors of teams being turned off by a hole in his swing. He also struggled against Friday pitchers more than normal this year, but I'm mostly writing that off due to the injury.

Despite the negatives, Alvarez is a true 40-homer threat down the road and if he can lay off the good breaking stuff he'll hit .300 too. He doesn't have any speed to speak of and he won't win any gold gloves, but he's good enough to stay at third for the first half of his career and that's all that fantasy leaguers care about. Barring a glaring positional need, I'd take Alvarez over any other player in the draft in fantasy leagues. He could be one of the league's best third basemen by 2010.

2. Buster Posey – C, Giants – 1.05 (5th)

A shortstop when he arrived at Florida State, Posey was well-known in scouting communities but not considered an elite talent. However, he started right away as a freshman and hit .346 with an impressive 45/38 K/BB. That he hit just four homers limited his value, but Posey's phenomenal bat control, ability to hit hard line drives, and plate discipline were big plusses. Posey moved to catcher for his sophomore season and posted more of the same offensive numbers, though he did raise his doubles total from 14 to 21.

Posey showed more of the same skills in the Cape Cod League that summer, but he looked like a different hitter this spring for FSU. The 6'2", 200-pound right-hander has posted one of the best college seasons you'll ever see, as he's hit .460/.564/.887 with a 27/55 K/BB and his team still alive in the College World Series. That performance includes 20 doubles, four triples, and a whopping 26 homers in 248 at-bats. He leads Division I in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and is tied for the lead in homers.

The question is if the breakout is for real, and how much will translate to the pros. I think the breakout is very real. Posey is a super athlete, is strong, and was always considered to have power potential. He's a smart hitter with a good approach, he's hit just as well on the road as at home, and he's dominated Friday pitchers with a slugging percentage over 1000. Many of those attributes bode well for Posey's power to translate to wood bats, but whether he's a 15-homer player, a 30-homer player, or something in between won't gain consensus until we see how Posey does with the wood. Discounting his breakout because of his lack of power in the cape is folly as he clearly made big adjustments this winter.

I err on the side of a potential 25 homers per season for Posey, but he doesn't need to be that productive to justify this pick. Since he also has excellent plate discipline and a long history of hitting for average, Posey will be exceptionally valuable even if he's in the mold of a right-handed (and healthy) Joe Mauer. His defense is already considered a plus and still getting better just two years in, so there's little chance he moves off the position. Roll it all together and you have a player with a very productive mean projection and still some upside to dream on, making him a top-two pick in your draft. The rumored big bonus demands won't be an issue, so expect him to take over for Bengie Molina in 2010.

3. Justin Smoak – 1B, Rangers – 1.11 (11th)

Another player long on the radar of scouts, Smoak established himself as a top 2008 draft prospect by smacking 17 homers as a freshman for South Carolina. He improved a little as a sophomore, totaling 22 long balls to go with a .315/.434/.631 line that included 54 walks and 40 strikeouts. The average was low for a college star, but Smoak's power, eye, and patience were all big plusses. This season, Smoak has put together his best campaign to date with a .383/.505/.757 mark that includes 23 homers and a 28/57 K/BB. He was particularly awesome in April, belting 13 of those homers in just 79 at-bats.

Along with the impressive college production, Smoak has the build and swing to hit for plenty of power at the major league level. The 6'4", 225-pound switch-hitter has an imposing frame with very quick bat speed and a lofty swing from both sides of the plate. He's naturally better from the left-side, but he's still a quality bat from the right.

Despite all of these positives, there are some negatives with Smoak. Though he excelled in the Cape Cod league after his freshman season, he struggled with Team USA last summer. He's also shown less power against Friday starters, though some of that decline would be expected. Most importantly, Smoak has greatly benefited from the friendly confines of his home park, batting .406 with 14 homers there while hitting .349 with nine long balls (in the same number of at-bats) on the road. It's a relatively small sample and not an outrageous difference, but the splits are there and worth mentioning.

In the end I don't think any of the above mentioned negatives are particularly glaring. Maybe he's not quite this good because of the park, but even then he'll have Ameriquest Field boosting him in the big leagues. With a low strikeout rate and a quick bat to go with his big frame, Smoak should end up a .290-35-110 threat during his prime. He's not quite as good as former Ranger Mark Teixeira, the switch-hitting first basemen he's often compared to, but he's not far off either. A debut during the middle of 2009 wouldn't be surprising.

4. Brian Matusz – LHP, Orioles – 1.4 (4th)

The first pitcher off the board, Matusz was highly sought after coming out of an Arizona high school in 2005. The Angels, who made him a fourth round pick, couldn't meet his bonus demands that were reportedly over $1 million and he went to San Diego as a result. Matusz showed promise as a freshman, but he became known as the best pitching prospect in the draft during his utterly dominant sophomore season. 20-year-olds aren't supposed to put up a 2.85 ERA and 163/37 K/BB in 123 innings, but Matusz did just that. He showed no signs of slowing down this past season either as he improved to a 1.71 ERA and 141/22 K/BB in just 105 innings.

A tall and lanky left-hander at 6'5" and 200 pounds, Matusz isn't known for his plus velocity despite all of the strikeouts. He tops out at 94 MPH and is mostly in the lower 90s. What sets Matusz apart is his three offspeed pitches and some of the best command in years. Matusz's curveball is an especially tough pitch, showing big break and consistently getting swings and misses. His changeup is also a plus pitch already, and the slider he added as a junior projects well to the big leagues.

Matusz could well be the first player to reach the majors from this draft because he's simply that advanced. The lack of velocity might mean he's more of a No. 2 than a true ace, but there's reason for optimism. Matusz's command and offspeed pitches can be matched by very few, and that he developed a fourth pitch instead of sitting on his sophomore success shows a great work ethic and strong desire to succeed. He's the type of player you hate to bet against.

5. Gordon Beckham – SS, White Sox – 1.8 (8th)

Beckham's first two seasons at Georgia were both solid, and he was considered borderline first round material after smacking 25 homers between the two years. His low .307 batting average and some concerns about his ability to handle better breaking stuff lowered his stock. However, Beckham began to move up prospect lists when he hit .284 with a league-leading nine homers for Yarmouth-Dennis. He was playing in the league's most hitter-friendly environment, but it was still a quality performance with wood bats.

Beckham continued his ascent up the first round by putting up an insane .401/.513/.802 line that included 21 doubles, 26 homers, and a 30/50 K/BB ratio. That he took his power output to a new level wasn't too surprising and he had shown good patience in the past, but the batting average was still an encouraging surprise. The concerns about Beckham's ability to hit good breaking pitches are still there, but when he does make contact with his quick swing he punishes the ball well.

Despite the batting average gains this year, Beckham projects as more of a .270 hitter in the majors. However, since that could come with 25 homers, 30 doubles, and a handful of steals, Beckham will be a highly sought after property. Those I've talked to are sold on his defense despite his lack of plus speed, citing his excellent hands, feet, and more than adequate arm. The White Sox don't have a long-term plan at shortstop and Orlando Cabrera is a free agent after 2008, so expect them to sign a one-year stopgap and turn to Beckham in 2010.



6. Yonder Alonso – 1B, Reds – 1.7 (7th)

Also one of the best bats in the draft, Alonso broke out with a .376/.519/.705 mark that included 18 homers and an incredible 31/64 K/BB as a sophomore for Miami. He followed it up with a very balanced and impressive showing in the Cape Cod League, batting .338 (third best in the league) with a league-leading .468 on-base percentage, 12 doubles, and four homers. Alonso kept the hit parade coming by batting .367 and smacking 23 homers this spring, along with a whopping 74 walks compared to just 32 strikeouts.

The left-handed hitting Alonso looks bigger than his 6'2", 215-pound frame, but he's more of a pure hitter than a power threat. Alonso is able to muscle balls out with a metal bat, but his approach means he's more of a 25-homer, 40-double type of threat with wood. That he consistently struggled with college left-handers and posted a very mediocre .227/.410/.467 line against them this year is concerning, but that he demolishes right-handers means it won't reduce his playing time down the road. Since he should still hit .300, draw plenty of walks, and play half his games at Great American Ballpark, he'll be a very valuable hitter in any league.

The one question with Alonso is position. He's not a good athlete and trials at third base in the past have failed, so the Reds likely intend on moving current first basemen Joey Votto to left field. Votto played 41 games there in the minors last season, and he's the better athlete of the two. Alonso's eye and approach are so advanced he could be ready for the majors as early as the middle of 2009. As a result, expect Votto to take some reps in the outfield next spring, and move there no later than the start of 2010.

7. Tim Beckham – SS, Rays – 1.01 (1st)

A gifted, 18-year-old shortstop from a Georgia High School, Beckham has been considered the best high school prospect in this draft since his junior season. A very athletic, wiry strong 6'2", 200-pound right-hander, Beckham has the potential to be a five tool player in the big leagues. He's quick with the bat, makes hard contact, and shows better plate discipline than you'd expect given his label as an athlete. Beckham is also a wiz in the field, and he's one of the few shortstops you'll hear about who have no detractors that say he should be moved to another position.

The big question with Beckham is if he can start to add more power. He hasn't shown as much in games as scouts thought he'd have, and his swing is more designed for average and hitting to the gaps right now. Though he's a very fast runner, Beckham will need to refine his baserunning, like most youngsters that rely on tools against inferior competition.

An athletic shortstop drafted first overall will naturally draw comparisons to the Upton brothers, but Beckham isn't in their class. While his defense is better, Beckham doesn't have the lightning quick bat or incredible strength that they both had. That said, Beckham would still be very valuable if he hits .290 with 10-15 homers and 30 steals per season as a shortstop. That's probably his mean projection, with a best-case scenario involving him developing legitimate 25 homer power. There's also the risk he doesn't add power or simply struggles against better pitching, but the upside makes him a worthwhile investment. He could easily make me look bad for having him ranked here.

8. Eric Hosmer – 1B, Royals – 1.03 (3rd)

It takes a lot for a club to sink the third overall pick into a high school first basemen, but Hosmer's bat convinced the Royals to go ahead and do just that. Already quite big and strong at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Hosmer has been a cut above his high school teammates since his freshman year. His bat speed may be the best in the draft, his swing is conducive to hitting for both power and average, and he's an incredibly smart player for his age with a great approach at the plate.

It'd be surprising if Hosmer didn't hit .300 most years in the majors, and the power is there both in the present and in projecting it to the next level. To put it bluntly, there's enough power potential in his bat that a few 40-homer campaigns can't be ruled out. Hosmer is also quite athletic and throws in the 90s when he's on the mound, so he could end up the Royals' right fielder of the future. For now he'll stay at first base, where he profiles to be a plus defender. You'll have to wait three years if you spend a pick on Hosmer, but the future rewards could be vast. I like him more than this ranking, but couldn't get him higher without dropping someone equally as deserving.

9. Kyle Skipworth – C, Marlins – 1.06 (6th)

A 6'3", left-handed hitting catcher out of a California high school, Skipworth is the best prep catching prospect since Joe Mauer, though in a different style. Mauer was an excellent defender who would without question stay behind the plate, while Skipworth has the kind of power that can play at other positions. He may end up rivaling Hosmer and some of the college corner players in terms of power output, especially if he moves to another position. Skipworth also shows good plate discipline and the ability to hit for a high average, as his newsworthy streak of recording a hit in 18 straight at-bats highlights.

The track record of high school catchers in the first round of the draft is spotty to say the least. That said, Skipworth shouldn't be discounted because his bat is a plus at any position. He's played some third base before and the move would be a natural one, though the Marlins will give him every chance to remain a catcher. Playing 150 games in a season, Skipworth is a potential 30-homer player if everything breaks right. Don't let him fall too far in your draft.

10. Brett Wallace – "3B", Cardinals – 1.13 (13th)

I think there's a small drop-off after Skipworth in these rankings, but the next three players are close enough that I still view the draft as having a first tier of 12 players.

An exceptional hitter as both a freshman and sophomore for Arizona State, Wallace continues the trend of high profile names that are hardly new to those paying attention. The left-handed hitting Wallace continued to show a plus bat, plus power, and plus plate discipline this season, as he ended up posting a .410/.526/.753 line that included 22 homers and a 33/48 K/BB. Wallace moved to third base this spring after spending the last two seasons as primarily a first basemen, and he showed better than expected instincts and hands.

A pure hitter, Wallace should be a 25-homer, .290 type of hitter at the next level. There's a little more risk here than with a player like Alonzo given Wallace's body type, favorable home park, and lack of power with Team USA last summer. I believe more in his ability to hit doubles and draw walks than his home run potential, though it's a positive that he hit nearly as well on the road as he did at home this season.

The big concern, no pun intended, with Wallace is that he's listed at 6'2" and 245 pounds. He's actually been heavier than that earlier in college, though that he lost some weight shows a good commitment. His lower half is quite large and is already on the wrong end of more than a few jokes. While few question his bat even while he's that big, it's difficult to envision Wallace staying at third base as he's an improved but still poor defender. Albert Pujols isn't going anywhere, so the Cardinals have no choice but to try him there for a few years. Even if he ends up at first base or in the AL as a DH, Wallace's bat will always carry value.



11. Aaron Crow – RHP, Nationals – 1.09 (9th)

Crow was sitting on the outside looking in at the first round after his solid yet unspectacular sophomore season at Missouri. However, a big Cape Cod season in which Crow posted a 0.67 ERA and 36/9 K/BB in 40 1/3 innings started to get him noticed. Particularly noteworthy of the performance was that Crow's fastball went from peaking at 90 MPH at Missouri to hitting 98 in the cape. He worked more regularly in the mid-90s, but it was still a drastic change. Crow attributed the change to working on cleaning up his mechanics and better conditioning.

Back at Missouri this spring, Crow continued to dominate with a 2.35 ERA and 127/38 K/BB in 107 1/3 innings. He drew plenty of notice when he recorded a 43 inning scoreless streak at one point early in the season, though he followed it up with a considerable slump and lost velocity in April. Crow's velocity and productivity returned in May, so there was little doubt he'd be a top 10 pick.

Right now, Crow is a two-pitch pitcher. His mid-90s fastball induces plenty of grounders and he commands it well, and his slider is also an above average offering. Crow didn't need his changeup much in college and it's still a work in progress. If he can further develop the changeup Crow will be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues. If not he'll be a fine No. 3, and I don't see a move to the bullpen in his near future. He could be in the Nationals' rotation by the middle of 2010.

12. Brett Lawrie – "C", Brewers – 1.16 (16th)

One of the few late-rising prospects of the spring, Lawrie got noticed when he put together a spring surge with his bat. A 6'0", 200-pound right-hander from a Langley, Canada high school, Lawrie smacked eight homers in eight games when his Canadian junior national team traveled to the Dominican Republic to play games against Dominican Summer League teams. He also excelled in various other late-season games for Team Canada, including in games against college teams and extended spring training clubs. His in game power was incredible for a high school player, and rivaled that of any other player in the draft.

With excellent bat speed and a strong approach at the plate, Lawrie's power should translate well to professional baseball. That he has plenty of experience with wood bats from playing for Team Canada should help immensely. There should be some concern that he's already very well built for his age and thus may not have as much room to grow as most 18 year olds, but since his power is so far ahead of most his age that's less of an issue. That he doesn't have the long track record of some other top picks will scare owners away, but his upside with the bat easily justifies this ranking.

The question with Lawrie is his position. New to catching, Lawrie is a liability there currently in part because he's played all over the field as late as this season. Some scouts believe he'll develop enough to stick behind the plate, while others think he's destined for another position. He's athletic enough for second base and could end up at third, but I'd expect the Brewers to try him at second if catching doesn't work out. Even if he does end up at the hot corner, Lawrie's power potential makes him worth a flier anywhere after the 10th pick in the draft.

13. Jemile Weeks – 2B, Athletics – 1.12 (12th)

I wasn't a huge fan of drafting Weeks at 12 in the real draft, but I think there's some merit to it and his speed boosts him back up these rankings. A 5'9", 180-pound right-hander, Weeks showed promise as a freshman with a .352/.446/.555 line that included a 27/37 K/BB and 32 extra-base hits. A leg injury limited him as a sophomore, but he was back looking like a top prospect with a .367/.453/.633 mark and 37/33 K/BB as a junior.

The brother of Brewers second basemen Rickie Weeks, Jemile is a different type of player. While he has good bat speed and belted 11 homers, Jemile's power is to the gaps. His size and approach say he'll struggle to hit more than a dozen homers per season in the majors. On the plus side, Weeks is an exceptional runner who uses his speed well once the ball is in play, and he's a plus base stealer having gone 21-for-22 there this season. He won't draw as many walks as his brother, but he also will hit for a higher average, strikeout less, and play a much better second base. Since he has 30 steal potential from a premium position, he's worth watching closely.

14. Ike Davis – 1B/OF, Mets – 1.18 (18th)

Known for his power coming into his college career, Davis didn't display the type of game power that was expected of him. He hit just 16 homers during his first two seasons, though he did smack 42 doubles. It was later revealed that he was being bothered by a wrist injury that required surgery the summer following his sophomore season. With that cleaned up, Davis returned to action for Arizona State this spring and had his best year yet with a .385 batting average, 16 homers, and 26 doubles. The left-hander also showed solid plate discipline, walking 31 times while striking out on 34 occasions.

Davis has plenty of power is his 6'4", 205-pound frame, and there's more projection there as he continues to get bigger. That Davis hit better on the road than at his hitter-friendly home confines was also a plus, and he's already known for his ability to handle left-handed pitching. However, Davis hit just .305/.406/.441 against opposing team's best pitchers, raising questions about how his game will translate to the more advanced pitchers of he minors.

While Davis has been productive for three years in college, he's still a somewhat risky college pick. The Friday starter splits are certainly worrisome and as is I think he'll struggle to hit above .260, but he also has greater power potential than he's shown and his performance this year suggests I may be underselling his average. Despite my concerns, I like taking a chance on him among the draft's top 15 prospects. Currently a first basemen, Davis has the arm to play right field given that he was ASU's closer. He may end up in left because of his range, but either is better than getting stuck at first.

15. Ethan Martin – RHP, Dodgers – 1.15 (15th)

With Martin rounding out the top 15 there's no big surprises here this year. Only Jason Castro (10th overall) and Aaron Hicks (14th) failed to make the top 15. In year's past I've gone as low as the 55th overall pick (Brett Anderson in 2006) for someone in the top 15, but no top 15 talents slipped due to signability, there were no speedsters that deserve to be ranked this high, and the first round went pretty much according to how I, and apparently MLB clubs, saw the talent.

It's almost cliché to associate the Dodgers with big upside high school arms, but they continue to go that route with early picks and Martin is no exception. A two-way player who many, including myself, liked more as a power-hitting third basemen coming into the year, Martin established himself more as a pitching prospect while hitting the mid-90s with his fastball and showing better command. Throw in a curve and changeup that both look strong at times, and it's easy to see why the Dodgers were linked to Martin and eventually selected him.

A big, strong, 6'3" right-hander from a Georgia high school, Martin doesn't have a defined ceiling at this time. He'll have to learn more consistency with his secondary pitches and command, but that seems reasonable now that he's focused on pitching. Since he'll be working with an organization that excels at turning young hurlers into productive big leaguers, Martin's stock gets a boost. If you're willing to take a chance and be patient, Martin is a worthy selection at this spot.

[Hache Man]

Bad Break for Soriano
Alfonso Soriano came into Wednesday's game batting .325/.367/.643 since returning from the disabled list on May 1, but will be sidelined for at least the next six weeks after an errant pitch from Jeff Bennett broke his left hand. Micah Hoffpauir figures to be called up to replace Soriano on the roster and could see some action against right-handers, but Mark DeRosa is likely to get the bulk of the starts in left field while Mike Fontenot steps in for him at second base.

It makes sense for Albert Pujols owners to show some patience by seeing if he can return in a few weeks before making a big move, but Soriano owners shouldn't count on having him back in the lineup before August. He's expected to be in a splint for the next three weeks, so there's little chance of a miracle recovery. Hoffpauir has enough power potential to be an asset if he's playing regularly, but Soriano owners should spend today sending out league-wide feelers for big bats.

While the Cubs suddenly look a whole lot less comfortable with their MLB-best record, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Felix Hernandez was absolutely brilliant Wednesday afternoon against the Blue Jays, totaling eight strikeouts while allowing just an unearned run on four hits over eight innings. Unfortunately even that turned into bad news, as the Mariners' nightmare season may have gotten even worse. Hernandez wasn't able to finish the game because of a calf strain, saying afterward that his leg "was getting tighter and tighter" as the afternoon went on.

That led to J.J. Putz trying to close out a one-run lead, but instead he showed decreased velocity while walking the leadoff man and then exited with elbow soreness. He was clearly uncomfortable on the mound, shaking his arm several teams, but manager John McLaren indicated afterward that the Mariners hope it's merely a day-to-day situation. Putz's performance has slipped in a big way this season and he had an ugly outing on June 1, so there's definitely reason for concern.

Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow stepped in for Putz and slammed the door by retiring three straight hitters for his first career save. Morrow had an up and down rookie season in large part because of 50 walks in 63.1 frames, but has muted speculation about the Mariners possibly moving him to the rotation by posting a 1.00 ERA and 25-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 innings as a reliever. If Putz needs a stint on the disabled list, Morrow will likely get ninth-inning duties.

* Francisco Liriano's velocity remains significantly below where it was prior to Tommy John elbow surgery, but his outings at Triple-A have gotten increasingly impressive. Liriano tossed six innings of one-run ball Tuesday, striking out seven and handing out just one walk for the fifth time in six starts. He has a 3.35 ERA and 41-to-15 strikeout-to-walk over 51 innings since being sent back to Rochester, including racking up 21 strikeouts over 18.1 innings during his last three starts.

Liriano's complete inability to throw the ball over the plate sabotaged a rushed comeback attempt, so it's very encouraging to see the progress that he's made with his control over the past month. Liriano can have success in the majors again whether or not his stuff ever returns to pre-surgery levels, but consistently throwing strikes will become hugely important if his fastball continues to clock in at 88-92 miles per hour.

While he's made great progress, Liriano remains nowhere near his old self. Totaling 41 strikeouts over a 51-inning span is far from exceptional, especially compared to the amazing strikeout rates that he posted prior to surgery, and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is nearly even after he once ranked among the most extreme ground-ball pitchers in baseball. Liriano looks nothing like the mess we saw in April, but also still looks nothing like the phenom we saw in 2006.

* John Smoltz received bad news Wednesday when surgery on his right shoulder revealed more damage than initially expected. Smoltz has a damaged labrum, which is arguably the worst type of injury for a pitcher. General manager Frank Wren called the findings "pretty significant" and added that "at this point they don't know what the prognosis is until he starts trying to throw and rehab in the next few months." Asked about Smoltz's future, Wren said: "We just don't know."

* Already on the disabled list with a small tear in his left shoulder, Ryan Zimmerman underwent an MRI exam Wednesday and has been told that he's still at least 4-6 weeks from returning under a best-case scenario. Doctors have told Zimmerman that he has a 70 percent chance of coming back without surgery, but he's by no means out of the woods and could go under the knife if he's not ready around the All-Star break. Aaron Boone and Ronnie Belliard will fill in at third base.

AL Quick Hits: Victor Martinez left Wednesday's game in the first inning with an elbow injury and Kelly Shoppach homered after replacing him behind the plate … Troy Percival (hamstring) threw a 30-pitch simulated game Tuesday and remains on track to return from the disabled list when eligible Friday … Manager Mike Scioscia said Tuesday that Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) could join the Angels before the All-Star break if he returns as a reliever … General manager J.P. Ricciardi said Tuesday that Aaron Hill (concussion) is still at least five days from beginning a minor-league rehab assignment … Inexplicably batting second Wednesday, Willie Bloomquist went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts and is now 7-for-46 (.152) with zero extra-base hits on the season … Frank Thomas (quadriceps) is hoping to return from the DL when the A's are done playing interleague games in NL parks on June 20 … Garret Anderson was scratched from Wednesday's lineup with a sore knee … Barring setbacks, both Joel Zumaya (shoulder) and Fernando Rodney (shoulder) are on track to rejoin the Tigers' bullpen next week.

NL Quick Hits: Dan Uggla smacked a walk-off grand slam Wednesday, beating the Phillies while moving within two homers of Chase Utley's MLB-leading total … Meanwhile, Cole Hamels racked up 13 strikeouts over eight innings of two-run ball, but managed only a no-decision when he left a tie game prior to Tom Gordon serving up the aforementioned Uggla blast … With Matt Holliday back in the lineup, Ryan Spilborghs is expected to see increased action in center field at the expense of Willy Taveras … Ryan Doumit went 3-for-4 with a homer Wednesday, going deep for the third time in two games since coming off the disabled list … Conor Jackson started in left field Wednesday, allowing the Diamondbacks to play Chad Tracy at first base … Despite injuries to Jeff Keppinger and Jerry Hairston, manager Dusty Baker said Tuesday that shifting Brandon Phillips to shortstop isn't an option … After going 21 seasons without a single trip to the DL, Tom Glavine (elbow) is back on the shelf for the second time in three months … Todd Wellemeyer left his start last week with elbow soreness and was scratched from his outing Tuesday, but is now scheduled to start Saturday against the Phillies.

[Hache Man]

Open season on innovation
It's hardly an unusual occurrence for the justice system to have an impact on fantasy baseball. Whether it's an infielder with visa problems, a pitcher charged with drug possession or a slugger facing a grand jury indictment, legal issues are just one more factor that can affect a player and his fantasy value.

But it is unusual for the justice system — especially the Supreme Court — to have an impact on fantasy baseball itself. That's what happened last week when the justices refused to hear Major League Baseball's case against fantasy provider CDM Sports and its parent company.

The issue, as most fantasy players are well aware, is whether MLB and the players association "own" the rights to a player's name and statistics — and can charge companies for using them in their fantasy games. Ultimately, an appeals court decision sided with the fantasy industry and the First Amendment.

And there was much rejoicing in fantasy quarters.

But what, exactly, does all of this mean to the millions of people who play fantasy baseball — and fantasy sports in general?

More choices

First, it opens the playing field to new ideas and new games.

Many of the websites and online tools fantasy players may take for granted today were once just crazy possibilities. Daily player notes, for instance, grew out of an idea that had already been proven on Wall Street — information moves the market. And those who have the information first are the ones who stand to benefit the most.

Statistical data has always been free and available — no one "owns" the fact that Manny Ramirez has 500-plus career homers or Randy Johnson has more than 4,600 career strikeouts — but the key has always been finding new ways to use that information.

Commissioner services, online drafts, sortable free agent lists, live scoring and many other things that make fantasy baseball easier to play have come about because people saw a need and then invented a way to satisfy it.

Going forward, fantasy baseball players should have more opportunities to find ways to play that suit them. An NL West league? Home runs only? Shortened season? Wacky scoring systems? If there's interest, there's bound to be a game available somewhere down the line.

Let's not kid ourselves — money is also a major reason why a fantasy baseball case nearly ended up at the Supreme Court. Baseball saw the millions of dollars people were pouring into fantasy baseball, so it developed its own set of games. Three years ago, MLB also struck a five-year, $50 million deal with the players union for the right to charge fantasy companies a licensing fee for using the players' names.

Before that, fantasy providers had paid a licensing fee directly to the players union. Once Major League Baseball got involved, the stakes immediately got higher.

The huge licensing fees — and the threat of a lawsuit — cut down on the number of competitors in the fantasy games market. Directly or indirectly, it forced many of the smaller providers to shut down or sell their interests to larger corporations.

In poker terms, MLB and the union could have kept their modest stake in the industry and collected the smaller fees. Instead, they went all-in … and came away with nothing.

More competition

At the beginning of this season, I posed a question on my blog page at usatoday.com: What website hosts your fantasy league, and are you happy with it?

Outside of a few minor gripes, most of those who responded were content with their current home. But the top concerns readers expressed were the need for better customer service and more customizable features — two things they had grown accustomed to, but were missing once their league's site was bought out by another company.

With the court case finally coming to a close, the financial barrier to entering the fantasy baseball marketplace has been greatly reduced. Customers should see more competition and quite possibly lower prices for the products and services they want.

Some of the heavyweight providers — including MLB.com and Yahoo.com — have always offered free versions of their games and leagues. ESPN.com stopped charging for its basic commissioner service two years ago.

Now that the playing field is slightly more level, fantasy fans will be able to shop around. Unlike the Wal-Mart around the corner vs. the mom-and-pop store several miles away, it's just as easy to click on freds_baseball_commissioner_service.com as it is cbssports.com.

More conflict?

The fantasy industry and Major League Baseball ultimately have the same goal — making the game more popular and enjoyable.

New York lawyer Glenn Colton, who filed briefs at the lower court level on behalf of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, perhaps said it best: "Hopefully, this closes the chapter on litigation and will usher in a new era of cooperation between the sports leagues, their players' associations and the fantasy industry."

But is it really over?

The NFL Players Association submitted a brief to the Supreme Court in support of baseball's case. While the fantasy baseball industry has apparently weathered the storm, the NFL could stir up something of hurricane-like proportions if it decides to file suit against fantasy providers.

The original fantasy baseball suit was filed in Missouri state court. However, the NFL could instead choose a more entertainment-friendly venue such as California or a more corporate-friendly one such as New York if it chooses to press the issue.

For now, fantasy baseball fans can focus all of their attention back on the field and not on the courtroom. At least, until one of their players happens to get into a legal pickle.

[Hache Man]

Winter's big hits and misses
By Craig Neuman and Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

Although we are a little more than two months into the season, major league teams are already evaluating how they fared with offseason moves. For fantasy leaguers, the process is a bit different. Just because the Houston Astros are slightly better off with Miguel Tejada than they were without him doesn't mean his fantasy owners feel the same. Some of the major offseason acquisitions from a fantasy perspective (all stats through June 7):

LHP Johan Santana for OF Carlos Gomez

Santana has posted a very good — though not quite Santana-esque — line of 7-4, with a 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 76 strikeouts for a Rotisserie value of $23 — not quite the $30 to $40 that most were predicting before the season began.

Those who paid that price or took him in the first round aren't panicking, but they're probably wishing they had a extra few points in WHIP and strikeouts. What's gone wrong?

For starters, Santana has been giving up home runs at an elevated rate. This is particularly worrisome for two reasons.

First, Shea Stadium is a park that does not yield many home runs. In addition, Santana is allowing fewer fly balls this year than he has done historically. Should his fly-ball rate return to its historical levels, it portends more homer trouble down the road. Additionally, while Santana's K/9 rate is an acceptable 7.8, it is down from his career levels. Fewer strikeouts and more home runs is not a recipe for success. With the New York Mets' sluggish start, this bears further watching.

On the flip side, Gomez was not going to play much in New York, so the trade to the Minnesota Twins (along with Torii Hunter's departure) allowed him to display his talents.

His line is a very respectable .277 with five home runs, 24 RBI, 17 stolen bases and 35 runs scored. His $29 value is primarily driven by his stolen bases.

When Gomez gets on, he is getting the green light. And, as long as he can rack up the bags, he will be of help to fantasy teams. But can he continue to get on base?

Gomez has only eight walks this season while striking out 61 times. As pitchers realize that Gomez is a free swinger who can be pitched to, his opportunities for stolen bases will probably decrease.

Still, in the minors, Gomez had shown the ability to walk more and make better contact, so there is hope the 22-year-old will improve.

OF Josh Hamilton for RHP Edinson Volquez

When this trade was consummated, no one gave it much thought. A fifth starter for a fourth outfielder? Yawn. Sure, both players had potential, but neither team probably expected All-Star performances this soon.

How has that happened?

Volquez has been virtually unhittable this year, going 8-2 with a 1.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 91 K (10.9 K/9) for a Rotisserie value of $34. With a newfound ability to induce ground balls and an improved strikeout rate, there are reasons to believe those numbers are for real.

However, Volquez has been stranding runners at an unsustainable rate and walking nearly five batters per nine innings, so there are risks. Volquez owners should consider selling high or be prepared to lose a few points in ERA and WHIP.

Hamilton is also having a monster year, batting .316 with 17 homers, 69 RBI and a $39 value. Hamilton's off-field troubles were well chronicled, and his 2007 on-field success was one of the feel-good stories of the year. Chapter 2 is turning out to be even better, and it's all for real. Ride it.

OF Andruw Jones signs with Dodgers

One of the biggest free agent acquisitions of the offseason has been the biggest bust. The Los Angeles Dodgers signed Jones expecting that 2007 was just an off year for the perennial power stud. But Jones' struggles continued into 2008 before he went on the disabled list.

Over the last two years, his power skills have declined while his strikeout rate has risen. He has been a bit unlucky with a BABIP of only .230, but even a more reasonable rate won't do much for a .165 batting average.

The bigger fallout of the Jones signing was its impact on the Dodgers' overcrowded outfield.

Projecting the allocation of outfield at-bats on draft day was problematic. With Jones' injury, we are now seeing how well Matt Kemp ($24), Andre Ethier ($14) and Juan Pierre ($23) can do in regular roles. Of course, it didn't take much to eclipse Jones' current minus $2 Rotisserie value.

OF Kosuke Fukudome signs with Cubs

At the beginning of the season, most fantasy experts expected Fukudome to have moderate success coming over from Japan, putting up low double-digit home runs and stolen bases while maintaining a relatively high batting average. So far, so good.

Fukudome has delivered to the tune of a .292 average with four homers, 24 RBI, five stolen bases, 40 runs and $19 value.

A curious question, though, is, would the Chicago Cubs have been just as well off if they had given Felix Pie the job? Throughout Pie's minor league career, he had shown terrific power-speed potential.

From a fantasy perspective, the 23-year-old might even have greater long-term upside than Fukudome who, at 31, might have already been past his prime when he put on a Cubs uniform.

We might never know what Pie could have done with a full-time job but, really, how much worse could it have been than the 12 homers and 15 stolen bases Fukudome is likely to produce?

SS Miguel Tejada traded to Astros

Controversy has surrounded Tejada the past several months. From being named in the Mitchell Report to the revelation he had been lying about his age, it would have been easy for him to be distracted by the off-field issues. Yet he has ignored the distractions and done what he has always done: hit. To the tune of $24 of Roto value thus far.

Coming into the season, Tejada was riding a three-year decline in power, a trend we expected to continue. And while on the surface it would appear his power is no better than last year, looks might be deceiving.

Sure, he has only seven home runs, but his line-drive rate is 7% greater than last year's, so he is hitting the ball hard. Currently, those line drives are only translating into doubles (17 so far compared with 19 for all of last year).

As the hot summer descends upon Houston, those doubles could turn into a few more home runs.

[Hache Man]

V-Mart Closed for Business
Victor Martinez left Wednesday's game after injuring his right elbow on a first-inning swing and was placed on the disabled list Thursday in preparation for surgery to remove bone chips. In part because he's a catcher and needs to be throwing at full strength again before returning, Martinez is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Coming back sooner is possible if Martinez is used at designated hitter, but that would only be an option if Travis Hafner struggles to return from a shoulder injury.

With Martinez sidelined, Kelly Shoppach figures to play nearly every day behind the plate given that light-hitting minor-league veteran Yamid Haad is now his backup. Shoppach went 2-for-4 and drove in two runs Thursday, giving him a modest .241/.291/.408 career mark in 404 major-league plate appearances. However, 13 homers and 55 RBIs over that time make him a solid pickup in AL-only leagues who may even be worth a mixed-league look if you're hurting for catching help.

Martinez was batting just .278/.332/.333 with zero homers in 217 plate appearances, so his hitting won't be as tough to replace as it would have been in past years. However, adding his injury to Cleveland's disappointing 31-36 record may signal that the Indians will begin shopping impending free agent C.C. Sabathia. Asked Wednesday about possibly trading Sabathia, general manager Mark Shapiro gave sort of a non-answer, which in itself is very different than his previous stance.

While the Sabathia rumors slowly start swirling, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Jake Peavy returned from the disabled list Thursday and showed no signs of rust despite sitting out a month with a strained right elbow, holding the Dodgers to three hits over six shutout innings. Manager Bud Black said before the game that Peavy would likely be on a "soft pitch count" of 90, but he exited after using just 72 to record 18 outs. Peavy struggled somewhat leading up to the DL stint, going 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA over five starts, so his return outing was very encouraging.

* J.J. Putz has been diagnosed with a hyperextended elbow after leaving Wednesday's game in obvious discomfort following one batter. That sounds bad, but probably qualifies as good news given that the Mariners have yet to place him on the disabled list in the hopes that he can return to action after a few days off. He's scheduled to be examined Monday, making him unavailable through at least the weekend while Brandon Morrow fills in at closer.

* Milton Bradley reportedly attempted to confront Royals television announcer Ryan Lefebvre in the press box following Wednesday's game due to what he felt were unfair comments made on the air. Bradley was able to keep an eye on the broadcast while serving as the team's designated hitter and took offense to a comparison Lefebvre made between him and Josh Hamilton. Luckily manager Ron Washington and general manager Jon Daniels intervened before things got ugly.

Bradley then headed back to the clubhouse in tears and addressed his teammates. "All I want to do is play baseball and make a better life for my kid than I had, that's it," Bradley said. "I love all you guys. I'm strong, but I'm not that strong." It sounds like the troubled Bradley hasn't changed a whole lot off the field, but he's having a career-year on the field by leading the league in batting average (.333), on-base percentage (.454), slugging percentage (.629), and OPS (1.082).

* While he didn't physically go after anyone, Livan Hernandez did direct an angry post-game rant at the Indians' announcing crew Thursday, accusing them of "talking bad about everybody" and suggesting that they "can wait outside in the parking lot and say something to me like a man" if they aren't interested in speaking to him in the clubhouse like other media members. Of course, Hernandez was only able to catch the broadcast because he was knocked out of the game early.

He coughed up seven runs on a dozen hits over three innings, marking the fifth time in the past seven starts that he's allowed double-digit hits and at least five runs. He began the year 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA, but since then has posted a 6.85 ERA in 12 starts, amazingly allowing 115 hits over 68.1 innings. You'd be touchy too if your 5.84 ERA ranked third-worst in the league behind Miguel Batista and teammate Boof Bonser, both of whom have been demoted to the bullpen.

It's a shame that no one could have possibly seen Hernandez's implosion coming.

AL Quick Hits: Eric Hurley looked decent enough in his MLB debut Thursday against the Royals, but showed the weakness that'll probably keep him from being a fantasy asset by serving up two homers … Chone Figgins (hamstring) went 2-for-10 on a minor-league rehab assignment and is expected to return from the disabled list Friday … Manager Ron Washington said Wednesday that Eddie Guardado is now the Rangers' primary setup man, putting him first in line for saves behind closer C.J. Wilson … Playing Thursday on his 34th birthday, Hideki Matsui smacked his fifth career grand slam to produce all the Yankees' runs in a victory over the A's … Jason Varitek sat out Thursday's game with strep throat … Just 13-for-97 (.134) with an ugly 33-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio for his career, Brandon Wood headed back to the minors Thursday … As a Minnesotan it pained me to watch, but Daily Dose favorite Aaron Laffey turned in another strong start Thursday, holding the Twins to one run over six innings … Kevin Millar left Thursday's game after fouling a pitch off his knee, but X-rays were negative and he's considered day-to-day.

NL Quick Hits: Johan Santana newyorkmets.com racked up 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings Thursday, but got stuck with a no-decision when Billy Wagner blew his third straight save … Ryan Doumit went deep again Thursday, making him 9-for-11 with four homers and two doubles over the past three games … J.J. Hardy was scratched from Thursday's lineup and flew back to Milwaukee to have his sore shoulder examined … Jamie Moyer completed eight innings Thursday for the first time since April of 2006, holding the Marlins scoreless on just two hits while improving to 5-0 over his last six starts … Freddy Sanchez went 0-for-5 and left nine runners on base Thursday, dropping his batting average to .239 … Bronson Arroyo tossed six shutout innings Thursday and also went 2-for-2 with a homer at the plate … With Matt Capps needing a day off Thursday, Damaso Marte picked up his first save since 2005 … Jeff Weaver was released by the Brewers after posting a 6.22 ERA in nine starts at Triple-A … One day after saying that he's considering retiring following the season, Ray Durham notched his 2,000th career hit Thursday.

[Hache Man]

The Laffey Taffy

Q:Why does it get hotter after a baseball game?
A: Because all the fans leave.
With Waiver Wired's tribute to Laffy Taffy out of the way, here are some waiver options this week:

National League

1. Mike Gonzalez – RP – ATL - Mike Gonzalez is currently wrapping up a rehab assignment, but so far he's allowed just one run in nine innings while striking out ten and issuing just one walk. With Tom Glavine on the disabled list, Manny Acosta getting hit hard of late, Blaine Boyer blowing a save on Thursday and Rafael Soriano complaining of elbow discomfort, Gonzalez has a chance to hop right back into the mix at closer for the Braves – once they finally decide to call him up. He should be back any day now, and those owners looking for saves should remember he closed out 24 games for the Pirates back in 2006. His 2.29 career ERA and 196 strikeouts in 172.2 major league innings are also of note.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

2. Lastings Milledge – OF – WAS - Since May 24, Lastings Milledge has hit in 17 of the 19 games that he's started, walking in the two that he didn't. He's stolen six bases and also hit four of his five homers in that period, suggesting that he could be starting to turn things around. So far in June, he's struck out just three times while walking four, which suggests that the 23-year-old could be refining his approach at the plate. His average should continue to climb as he continues to adjust to major league pitching, likely winding up around .270, and he'll probably end up making a run at a 20/20 season.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

3. Kyle Lohse – SP – STL - After posting a 3-0 record with a 2.36 ERA in April, Lohse was shelled in the beginning of May. In two brutal starts he allowed 15 runs in ten innings. He complained of shoulder soreness around that time, and has since lowered his ERA from 4.91 down to 3.92. He hasn't been striking out many batters, but he makes up for it by limiting his walks. The biggest key to his success this year appears to be that he's halved his home run rate from about one per nine innings to .45 homers per nine, thanks largely to the fact that he's inducing about 13 percent more ground balls than he did last year. When batters are hitting the ball in the air, only 4.7 percent leave the park, less than half of his career and the league's average. Dave Duncan is one of the better pitching coaches in the major leagues, and it's possible he's helped something click with Lohse. It's also possible that Lohse has just been lucky.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

4. Chris Duncan – OF – STL - With Albert Pujols out for a few weeks, Chris Duncan will start at first against right-handed pitchers for the Cardinals. He has a .795 OPS against righties so far this year, and a .918 OPS against them in his career, with 44 homers in 650 at-bats. The Cardinals are scheduled to face righties in their next nine starts, making Duncan a solid short-term addition.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Mike Pelfrey – SP – NYM - Pelfrey has had quality outings in his last three starts, allowing just four runs over 21 innings. He's registered a 15/6 K/BB ratio over that period, which is a significant improvement on anything he'd done in the majors. While his most recent starts are a step in the right direction, they shouldn't be enough to convince owners he's figured out how to pitch in the big leagues. Owners with bench space in mixed leagues can consider grabbing him to see if he can maintain the success, but don't go blindly inserting him into your fantasy lineup.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues.

6. Sean Gallagher – SP – CHI - Gallagher has pitched moderately well for the Cubs since becoming a starter. If you take out his ugly first start, he's compiled a 3-2 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, striking out 24 in 28 1/3 innings. Gallagher should continue to compile wins with the Cubs' explosive offense behind him, but expect some bumps in the road during the summer months at Wrigley.
Recommendation: Should be owned in NL-only leagues

7. Andy LaRoche – 3B/1B – LAD - The Dodgers say they plan on playing Andy LaRoche against left-handed pitchers, but unfortunately that's the less frequent side of a platoon. LaRoche has hit extremely well at Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he hasn't been able to carry his success over to the big leagues. At just 24, there's still plenty of time, but he'll need to be a more regular part of the Dodgers lineup. For what it's worth, the team is reportedly looking at trading some of it's younger players for a proven bat, which could help LaRoche find more playing time – either on a new team or in place of James Loney or Blake DeWitt.
Recommendation: Monitor in NL-only leagues.

8. Paul Janish – SS – CIN - With Jerry Hairston Jr. headed to the disabled list, Paul Janish will take over at shortstop for the next week until Jeff Keppinger is back. Janish has gone 1-for-11 since assuming the job, scoring once after being walked. His value will be both short-lived and minimal, making him an option for only the most desperate of owners.
Recommendation: Stay away.

American League

1. Aaron Laffey – SP – CLE - Laffey continues to get mentioned here, as his long-term value continues to improve. With the season-ending injury to Jake Westbrook, Laffey seems likely to stay in Cleveland's rotation until the end of the season. With the exception of a disastrous start against Texas' high-powered offense, he's been very solid this season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. Laffey is a control pitcher who relies on inducing a high percentage of ground balls, and he has just 24 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings. Still, his contributions in other categories should leave him with long-term value in mixed leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

2. Brandon Morrow – RP – SEA - J.J. Putz is currently sidelined with a hyper-extended right elbow. He's not going to go on the disabled list immediately, but the hyperextension is also causing "triceps tendon inflammation" and an "irritated ulnar nerve." He will be reexamined on Monday, and while it's unknown if he'll need a trip to the disabled list, Morrow is worth grabbing in all formats as a speculative source of saves. He hasn't allowed a run since May 12, and is currently sporting an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 1.06. He also has 25 strikeouts in just 18 innings.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

3. Luke Scott – OF – BAL - Scott hit a disappointing .212 in May, but he's bounced back so far in June, hitting .382 with four homers on the young month. His problem is that his production disappears against lefties – he has a .167 average and no homers against them so far this season. Unfortunately for Scott, that leaves him stuck in a platoon, although the team said Friday they'll start to use him more often against southpaws. Until he proves he can hit them, fantasy leaguers might want to sit Scott when he faces left-handed pitchers. Still, his power and .297 average against righties makes him a solid fourth outfielder, especially if you can plug him based on match-ups.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

4. Scott Baker – SP – MIN - Baker is owned in about two percent of fantasy leagues, which is surprising considering he's posted a 3.60 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP so far this season. Most of his problems in the past have come from the number of homers he's given up. This season, he gave up six dingers over the course of two starts, but has issued just one long ball in 33 innings outside of that. That suggests he's managed to control his gopheritis, which would make him a quality contributor in mixed leagues.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN - Liriano seems to have gotten a grasp on his control at Triple-A: he's issued just one walk in five of his last six outings. He's also struck out seven in his last three outings. Liriano might not revert to his old form this season, but he appears to be regaining some of his old skill set in the minors. The Twins' website recently ran a story saying he was close to getting called up, but there's nothing official planned. Regardless, teams with deep benches and in need of pitching could consider stashing him.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues

6. Justin Masterson – SP – BOS - Masterson is sporting a 2.59 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP after four starts for the Red Sox. His 18/12 K/BB ratio is weak, and Masterson's .179 BABIP is significantly above average, although it's supported by an incredibly impressive ability to induce ground balls. Still, the ERA should rise, and Masterson's status once Daisuke Matsuzaka returns is in doubt. It's also worth noting that two of Masterson's starts have come against Seattle and Kansas City, the two worst offenses in the American League. He's a short-term option for now, to be played in the right situation.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

7. Billy Butler – 1B – KC - Butler was one of the biggest sleepers coming into the season, but a poor start ended up in a demotion to Triple-A. Butler was struggling against righties, but he also seemed to have lost his power, with a slugging percentage over 100 points lower than in his rookie season. Since arriving in the Pacific Coast League, Butler has gone on an absolute tear, hitting .377/.441/.679 in 53 at-bats. He's still doing most of his damage against lefties, but he's also hitting right-handed pitching well, and is showing he deserves another chance to help an anemic Kansas City offense. Mixed leaguers with bench space should consider stashing him, as Butler could hit ten homers in the second half with an average hovering around .300.
Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues.

8. Kelly Shoppach – C – CLE - So far this year, Victor Martinez is without a homer while his backup, Kelly Shoppach, has hit three. Martinez is headed to the disabled list for a month and a half, so Shoppach will now assume starting duties for the Indians. He's hitting .238/.289/.383 on the season, but those numbers figure to improve at least a little now that he'll get regular playing time. His 137 strikeouts in 370 at-bats illustrate the difficulty he's had making contact, but his 13 homers in that same period illustrate his power potential.
Recommendation: Should be owned in AL-only leagues.

9. R.A. Dickey – SP – SEA - Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey will be moved into the starting rotation in Seattle, taking the mound against the Nationals on Friday. The Mariners say it will only last while J.J. Putz is out, but Dickey has a chance at securing the job with a strong start. He has allowed just three runs in 25 innings since getting called back up at the end of May, but his 3.44 ERA in 49.2 minor league innings suggests his ERA could start to rise. Still, he's worth watching for now.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

10. Jamey Carroll – 2B - CLE - With Josh Barfield headed to the disabled list, the 34-year-old Jamey Carroll has a temporary hold on the starting second base job. He's gone 7-for-8 in the last two days, raising his average to .273. His average has varied widely from year-to-year, but he's managed .272 over his career. He has just nine homers in 1619 lifetime at-bats, but he's hitting at the top of the Indians' lineup, which could result in solid run totals – he has 23 in 108 at-bats so far this season. Still, his hold on the job is tenuous, making him a short-term option in AL-only leagues for now.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

[Hache Man]

Pujols-VMart- Putz-Sori Ouch!
Alou, VMart, Soriano and Prince Albert all hit the DL, but Troy Percival and Schultz are back. That and more in this week's Week That Was.

Troy Percival: The (no Devil) Rays activated closer Troy Percival from the DL and put Al Reyes on the DL in his place. You can assume that Percival will resume his role as closer and that Dan Wheeler will return to setup man. Of course, if you have Percival, get him in your lineup. However, I also advocate keeping Wheeler. First of all, Percival will get dinged up again. Second, how many of you cannot use a pitcher with an ERA around 2.00, a WHIP around 1.00 and who will get some saves to boot? Actually, I will go further and say that now is the time to trade for Wheeler.

Moises Alou: It looks like Moises Alou lasted only 6 innings before landing back on the DL. Frankly, while I hate to see anyone get hurt, I have no sympathy for the Mets or fantasy owners who drafted Alou. There was no doubt he would miss very substantial time this year. Both the Mets and Alou's fantasy owners should do the same thing – find a replacement. One thing to keep in mind here: If you are in an NL league, this injury increases the possibility that a big name bat will come to the Mets – maybe from the NL and maybe a guy who has already hit 762 homers. Either way, there is more reason for NL fantasy owners to save their FAAB money.

J.J. Putz: Seattle put J.J. Putz on the DL this week with an elbow problem. It is kind of odd how last spring everyone expected him to break down and he was great. This spring, he was on top off the AL closer draft boards and has disappointed. Hard to predict these things some times. Anyway, enough nonsense! Brandon Morrow is now a hot commodity. He will take over the closer role and will be valuable in all formats. Be careful not to break that bank though until you see how long Putz will be on the shelf.

Livan Hernandez: Livan Hernandez was just awful again this week, giving up seven runs in just three innings against the Indians. Just what the Cleveland bat doctor ordered. I cannot even write how bad Livan has been. If you owned him during his hot start, good for you. If you have kept him active this long, shame on you. Water finds its level and hittable aging pitcher are, well, hittable. Full disclosure – Livan is one of the prime reasons Rick Wolf and I may well go first to worst in LABR-AL. So, like my mother always said – do as I say, not as I do (at least as far as bad pitchers are concerned).

Victor Martinez: In a devastating injury that could mean the end of the Tribe season, Victor Martinez will undergo surgery on his right elbow and could miss two months. Frankly, given how important he is to their future, it is possible they will be careful and hold him back even longer. Kelly Shoppach will get the nod for Cleveland. Here is the strategy there – go get Shoppach now, ride out the inevitable hitting streak (because the guy does have talent), then trade him at the top of his value before he tires from the dog days of summer workload that will be new to him.

Albert Pujols: St. Louis put Albert Pujols on the 15-day disabled list with a calf problem (at least it was not the rumored bad elbow). According to reports, Pujols will miss least three weeks or more. The buying opportunity here is Chris Duncan. He will get substantial time and will hit for power. His value is at its lowest after a recent demotion. Buy!

Billy Wagner: In a run eerily reminiscent of the collapse of 2007, Billy Wagner blew his third save opportunity in a row Thursday. If you own Wagner, you have no choice but to hold. Frankly, he has been very good so far this year. However, he is getting up in age, is slight for a power pitcher, and is playing for a team in a funk. Wait for Wagner to have a couple of good outings and start fielding offers. The odds of a rough second half for the other sandman are increasing rapidly.

Alfonso Soriano: In a bad break both literally and figuratively, the cubbies lost Alfonso Soriano for what could be as long as 6 weeks with a fractured knuckle on his left hand. The challenge for fantasy players will be to predict what the unpredictable Sweet Lou will do. He could move DeRosa to LF and use Cedeno or Fontenot at 2b. He could move Reed Johnson to LF and play Jim Edmonds more. Or, he could do what he did Thursday and play Eric Patterson in left field. Patterson has speed and talent. If he gets off to a hot start in this trip to the Windy City, he could make a fine fantasy find (say that ten times fast).

Jacque Jones: Florida cut bait on Jacque Jones after he continued his non-hitting ways. This whole thing is just puzzling. This guy hit 280+ over the last two years and was a consistent power hitter against RHP for quite a while. If you have Jacque Jones, throw him on reserve, but it will take some serious luck for him to be a productive fantasy player again this year. Hey wait, if the Mets are willing to gamble on Trot Nixon, which they did this week, why not Jones? Possible.

Randy Wolf: Randy Wolf was sharp again Wednesday, giving up only one run in seven innings, while striking out nine. Wolf is a quality lefty who is far enough removed from injury to be a solid starter the rest of the way. Plus, he pitches in a great park in Petco. One word of warning here – Wolf could get dealt by the lowly Pods to a contender. That is good for wins, but could be very bad for ballpark effect. Stay tuned.

And finally, this from the baron of the bottom of page -- Schultz Says: "Ah hiatuses are fun. Like a college friend of mine used to say, "nah ha ha, I am pressed and ready to go." I'm not sure what he meant back then and I'm still not sure many years later. Either way, Schultz has returned.

Jason Michaels has managed to thrive since crossing the river to the Pirates. When the Indians acquired him a couple years back, he was handed a golden opportunity to become the everyday player the Phillies thought he could be . . . and he did nothing with the chance. Since moving into the Pirates lineup, he's once again found his stroke and is driving in whatever runs Freddie Sanchez won't. In the months where help is hard to find, you could do worse than Michaels.

The Diamondbacks put a damper on the hopes of all Max Scherzer owners by sending the rookie back to the minor leagues. This poses a tough problem for those owners who got Scherzer cheap or gambled on him long before his fantastic debut where he struck out seven while retiring his first 13 batters. The kid is fantastically talented, so if you can afford to stash him away and wait out his time in the minors, Scherzer should be back later this year. Even sooner if the DBacks staff suffers an injury. The last thing you want to do is cut him loose and watch someone else grab him cheap.

It's Father's Day this Sunday. So Happy Birthday to all you fathers out there.
Response: "nah ha ha"? I don't even want to know. As to the baseball analysis, I am not sure I would invest a whole lot in Jason Michaels as he will probably cool off. Once he does, and once the Pirates start playing for next year as the so often do, Steven Pearce, Nyjer Morgan, etc. will grab the outfield playing time.

Like Schultz says – Happy Fathers Day!

[Hache Man]

Know when to stream him
I know it's hard to focus on anything else with an exciting Pirates/Orioles series going on, but it's time to start planning for the next week of fantasy baseball. There's a full week of interleague action on tap, so make sure your designated hitters are playing in AL parks and that your shaky NL pitchers aren't facing teams with solid DHs.

Two-Start Pitchers

American League

Garrett Olson – HOU (Brandon Backe), @MIL (Manny Parra)
Bartolo Colon - @PHI (Cole Hamels), STL (Braden Looper)
Javier Vazquez – PIT (Ian Snell), @CHC (Ryan Dempster)
Paul Byrd - @COL (Mark Reynolds), @LAD (Chad Billingsley)
Justin Verlander - @SF (Tim Lincecum), @SD (Randy Wolf)
Kyle Davies - @STL (Braden Looper), SF (Tim Lincecum)
Jered Weaver – NYM (Mike Pelfrey), @PHI (Cole Hamels)
Nick Blackburn – WAS (John Lannan), ARI (Brandon Webb)
Darrell Rasner – SD (Randy Wolf), CIN (Johnny Cueto)
Justin Duchscherer - @ARI (Brandon Webb), FLA (Andrew Miller)
Carlos Silva – FLA (Andrew Miller), @ATL (Tim Hudson)
Scott Kazmir – CHC (Ryan Dempster), HOU (Brandon Backe)
Vicente Padilla – ATL (Tim Hudson), @WAS (John Lannan)
Dustin McGowan - @MIL (Manny Parra), @PIT (Ian Snell)

National League

Brandon Webb – OAK (Justin Duchscherer), @MIN (Nick Blackburn)
Jair Jurrjens - @COL (Ubaldo Jimenez), SEA (Jarrod Washburn)
Tim Hudson - @TEX (Vicente Padilla), SEA (Carlos Silva)
Ryan Dempster - @TB (Scott Kazmir), CHW (Javier Vazquez)
Johnny Cueto – LAD (Chad Billingsley), @NYY (Darrell Rasner)
Ubaldo Jimenez – ATL (Jair Jurrjens), NYM (John Maine) newyorkmets.com
Greg Reynolds – CLE (Paul Byrd), NYM (Mike Pelfrey)
Andrew Miller - @SEA (Carlos Silva), @OAK (Justin Duchscherer)
Brandon Backe - @BAL (Garrett Olson), @TB (Scott Kazmir)
Chad Billingsley - @CIN (Johnny Cueto), CLE (Paul Byrd)
Manny Parra – TOR (Dustin McGowan), BAL (Garrett Olson)
Mike Pelfrey - @LAA (Jered Weaver), @COL (Greg Reynolds)
Cole Hamels – BOS (Bartolo Colon), LAA (Jered Weaver)
Ian Snell - @CHW (Javier Vazquez), TOR (Dustin McGowan)
Randy Wolf - @NYY (Darrell Rasner), DET (Justin Verlander)
Tim Lincecum – DET (Justin Verlander), @KC (Kyle Davies)
Braden Looper – KC (Kyle Davies), @BOS (Bartolo Colon)
John Lannan - @MIN (Nick Blackburn), TEX (Vicente Padilla)

Possible Streamers

The following pitchers are available in a majority of mixed leagues and might be worth using in one or both of their starts this week.

American League

Tuesday, 6/17 – Kenny Rogers @ SF - Rogers has been on a hot streak of late, allowing just three runs in his last 29 innings. While that's unlikely to continue for the rest of the season, Kenny has three things going for him in this start: it's in San Francisco, he'll be facing pitchers, and he'll be facing the Giants.

Tuesday, 6/17 – Nick Blackburn vs. WAS - Blackburn's ERA is sitting at 3.87 with a 1.41 WHIP, and both of those numbers are inflated thanks to a recent disastrous start against the White Sox, which came after he had to leave the previous game when he was hit in the hip with a batted ball. He's since bounced back with a solid outing against the Indians, and should have no trouble taking care of the Nationals – the worst offense in the National League.

Wednesday, 6/18 - Aaron Laffey @ COL - Laffey has a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP for the Indians right now, and he's pitching in an NL park so he'll get to face pitchers. The Rockies are returning to health, but they haven't exactly been a steady source of runs or wins, so this is a nice match-up.

Sunday, 6/22 – Kyle Davies vs. SF - Davies is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in three starts for the Royals, but his 1.54 WHIP and 8/9 K/BB ratio suggests that trouble could be brewing. His Sunday match-up against the Giants is promising, but make sure he pitches effectively to the Cardinals on Tuesday before plugging him in.

National League

Tuesday, 6/17 – Braden Looper vs. KC - It's a slow week in the National League for streamers, so this might be a bit of a reach, but Looper has a 2.18 ERA so far this month, with 12 strikeouts and three walks. The Royals have scored the fewest runs in the major leagues, so if you're desperate for a pitcher, this might be someone to consider.

Tuesday, 6/17 – Scott Olsen @ SEA - Olsen has a 4-3 record and a 3.27 ERA so far this season, with a 1.23 WHIP. He's only averaging a strikeout every other inning, but Tuesday's match-up against the pathetic Seattle offense should make for a solid outing.

Total Games

American League

6: Everyone in the American League plays six games this week.

National League
7: ATL, COL
6: ARI, CHC, CIN, FLA, HOU, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS


Righty vs. Lefty Match-ups

American League
Baltimore - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Boston - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Minnesota - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Seattle - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay – 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Texas - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The White Sox face three lefties and three righties, and the heavy dose of lefties could be bad news for Joe Crede, who's hitting just .104 off them this season. Toby Hall (.417 vs. LHP) could be asked to catch a couple games for A.J. Pierzynski (.229 vs. LHP). Carlos Quentin hits just .192 off lefties, but he should still be started.

The Indians face three lefties as well, so Jamey Carroll (.303 vs. LHP) could have a nice week at second base. Ben Francisco and Ryan Garko have also done well against lefties, hitting .346 and .325 respectively. Casey Blake has hit just .162 off southpaws.

The Tigers face three lefties, which could hurt Curtis Granderson (.167 vs. LHP), but help Carlos Guillen (.357 vs. LHP). Brandon Inge is hitting just .138 off lefties, but Placido Polanco is hitting .385 off them. Edgar Renteria is hitting .356 off them, and Ivan Rodriguez is hitting .310 versus left-handers.

The Angels face three lefties, too. Maicer Izturis hits .295 off them, and Casey Kotchman should be a solid play, as he's batting .407 against lefties.

The Athletics have three games against lefties, so Travis Buck (.139 vs. LHP) could see reduced playing time. Emil Brown (.297 vs. LHP) is worth using, while Mark Ellis (.169 vs. LHP) could struggle. Kurt Suzuki (.210 vs. LHP) could also get an extra day off.

National League:
Arizona - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Florida - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Houston - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers – 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
San Diego - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Washington - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Astros face three left-handed pitchers this week, so those NL-only leaguers desperate for a catcher (and I mean really desperate) can consider Brad Ausmus (.310 vs. LHP). Michael Bourn is hitting just .172 against lefties, and Kaz Matsui is hitting .327 off them.

That St. Louis doesn't face a lefty makes Chris Duncan a solid start in Albert Pujols' absence.

The Injury Bug

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Kelvin Escobar – SP – Shoulder – Return July, could be as reliever
Frank Thomas – DH – Quadriceps – Return early July
Aaron Hill – 2B – Head – Could start rehab assignment this week
Gregg Zaun – C – Elbow – Should be back this week
Chipper Jones – 3B – Eye – Day-to-day
Jair Jurrjens – SP – Ankle – Day-to-day
Mark Kotsay – OF – Back – Out indefinitely
John Smoltz – P – Shoulder – Out indefinitely
J.J. Hardy – SS – Shoulder – Day-to-day
Rickie Weeks – 2B – knee – Return late June
Eric Gagne – RP – Shoulder – Return late June
Albert Pujols – 1B – Calf – Return early July
Adam Wainwright – SP – Finger – Out indefinitely
Chris Carpenter – SP – Elbow – Return late July
Alfonso Soriano – OF – Hand – Return late June
Eric Byrnes – OF – Hamstring – Could return this week
Rafael Furcal – SS- Back – Return early July
Victor Martinez – C – Elbow – Out indefinitely
Jake Westbrook – SP – Elbow – Out for season
Travis Hafner – DH – Shoulder- Return mid-June
Jake Westbrook – SP – Elbow – Likely out for season
Fausto Carmona – SP – Hip – Return late June
J.J. Putz – RP –Elbow – Out indefinitely
Moises Alou – OF – Calf – Return early July
Ryan Church – OF – Concussion – Out indefinitely
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B – Shoulder- Out indefinitely
Chris Young – SP – Face – Out indefinitely
Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – shoulder – Return late June
Tadahito Iguchi – 2B – shoulder – Return mid-July
Chad Cordero – RP – Shoulder – Return early July
Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Quadriceps – Return late June
Jorge Posada – C – Shoulder- Return early June
Carlos Pena – 1B – finger – Return late June
David Ortiz – DH – Wrist – Return mid-July
Carl Crawford – OF – Suspended – Return June 18

Waiver Wired

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired.

AL

1. Aaron Laffey
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Luke Scott
4. Scott Baker
5. Francisco Liriano

NL

1. Mike Gonzalez
2. Lastings Milledge
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Chris Duncan
5. Mike Pelfrey

[Hache Man]

AL Team-by-Team Notes
I never bought into Victor Martinez's hamstring problem causing his drop in power because he was always moving around pretty well and using his legs in the batter's box just as he was before. As it turned out, it was really an elbow problem at the root of his drought. Surgery to remove bone chips took place Friday, and Martinez could miss up to two months. Perhaps if Travis Hafner (shoulder) has a setback, then Martinez could come back and DH in three or four weeks. However, it doesn't seem very likely. Kelly Shoppach will be a nice AL-only catcher until Martinez gets back. The Indians will have to move him up from the ninth spot in the order if he continues his hot hitting.

American League Notes

Baltimore - Thanks to another big series against the Red Sox, Luke Scott is back up to .282/.365/.523 for the season. Of the seven hitters the Orioles could potentially trade this summer, only Brian Roberts has more value in a deal. Scott is under control for four more years, and he's going to be quite cheap for the next two, even though he's probably going to be a super-two player this winter. That may sound like reason to hold on to him, but he is about to turn 30 years old and the Orioles already have two outfield spots spoken for going forward. They'd be smart to move him while his value is at its high point. The Mets, Padres, Rays and Braves are among the teams that could be interested. … Brian Burres seems likely to follow Steve Trachsel out of the Orioles' rotation. Matt Albers would be the favorite to replace him, but he is a better fit in the pen at the moment. Unfortunately, the Orioles are low on alternatives, especially with Triple-A Norfolk's Hayden Penn out with a sore shoulder and Adam Loewen effectively forbidden from starting. 20-year-old right-hander Chris Tillman might get an opportunity soon. Poor command would likely hold him back, but he is one of the top talents in the organization.

Boston - Bartolo Colon bounced back from his first rough start as a member of the Red Sox by striking out seven in a win on Wednesday. He's been able to hit 94-95 mph on the gun when he wants to, and his slider seems to be slowly rounding into form. The slider, though, is just a change of pace, as it's always been about the fastball with Colon. He's displayed very good command of both his two- and four-seamers for the most part. He is due to start giving up more homers, but if he continues to stay away from the walks, they'll be solo shots. It looks like he'll be a fairly valuable mixed-league starter for the rest of the year. … If his rehab start Monday goes well, Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder) will return to face the Cardinals on Saturday. Justin Masterson will be sent down.

Chicago - Jim Thome's back is acting up and the White Sox have six games upcoming in NL parks, so the struggling slugger is likely to be worthless for the near future. I can't see just giving up on him in a shallow mixed league, but for those without bench spots, it has to be a consideration. Ideally, one could drop him and pick him back up in three weeks, when the White Sox schedule starts getting awfully friendly. He might not be of any use until then. … A big hit Friday got Juan Uribe a second straight start on Saturday after two weeks out of the lineup, but he went 0-for-2 in the loss to the Rockies. Alexei Ramirez remains the preferred option at second base and likely will be back in there on Sunday.

Cleveland - Josh Barfield (finger) sure didn't last long as the Indians' second baseman. It'll be Jamey Carroll's job for at least a couple of weeks. Ideally, Asdrubal Cabrera would get hot in Triple-A and reclaim the job early next month. … Shin-Soo Choo is making a strong case to remain a starter against righties after Hafner returns to claim the DH spot. David Dellucci seems likely to be the odd man out. … Fausto Carmona (hip) is two or three weeks away from taking Jeremy Sowers' rotation spot.

Detroit - The Tigers handled Dontrelle Willis very poorly after activating him from the disabled list -- having him throw just one inning in a two-week span was a ridiculous idea -- and with his command worse than ever, the team had no choice but the send him down. Minor league veteran Eddie Bonine won't prove to be a long-term replacement, but the Tigers lacked obviously superior options in Triple-A. They're the one team that may need to overlook Sidney Ponson's faults and bring him in. Willis is a long shot to come back and make a real contribution in fantasy leagues this year. Maybe he'll work through his command problems, but his stuff is no better now than it was last year, when he was a lousy pitcher in the NL. … Ivan Rodriguez doesn't figure to spend the rest of the year playing every other day, but that's the way manager Jim Leyland wants him splitting time with Brandon Inge for now. Until it changes, Inge could be an adequate second catcher in mixed leagues. He'll still probably get the occasional start at third base. … Right-hander Freddy Dolsi has been quite impressive since being called up, even picking up a couple of saves. However, he might be demoted this week with Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya set to return from their shoulder injuries. Casey Fossum is also a candidate to go. Rodney is expected back on Monday. Zumaya could be activated a few days later.



Kansas City - With 17 steals this year, Joey Gathright has rewarded AL-only leaguers. However, his .244/.289/.267 line has made him a big liability in an expanded role that's had him in the lineup 70 percent of the time for the Royals. That's especially the case since the team doesn't really need him in center. He's better than David DeJesus there, but DeJesus still covers enough ground to handle the position. If the Royals had picked up an average left fielder or first baseman, with Gathright being used strictly as a fourth outfielder, they'd have at least a couple of more wins right now. Instead of foolishly penciling in Ross Gload as a regular, they should have used the money they wasted on Brett Tomko to bring one in over the winter. … The Royals could get a boost if they bring back Billy Butler once they're finished playing in NL parks. Butler is hitting .375/.453/.661 with three homers in 15 games since being sent down, and since no one has stepped up in his absence, the Royals might as well give him another chance. Gathright and Gload would lose at-bats.

Los Angeles - Thanks to their pitching, the Angels had the AL's best record going into Saturday's play even though they have often been without up to three starting infielders and have received a 750 OPS from their $51.5 million outfield. While Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Matthews Jr. have been the bigger disappointments from a fantasy perspective, Garret Anderson is the Angels' weakest link. The team is counting on him rebounding in the second half just like he did last season, but there's little reason to think he'll do it again at age 36. Incredibly, they've had him and his .293 OBP batting third of late. Anderson should be done in Anaheim at season's end, so it's about time loyalty stops winning out and he gets treated like any other past-his-prime corner outfielder with middling power and little speed. Potential upgrades should be plentiful at the deadline. … Chone Figgins (hamstring) returned Friday, and the Angels might get Erick Aybar (finger) back before the end of the week. Aybar, though, probably won't be a regular initially with Maicer Izturis on a tear of late. Izturis will move around a bit, but he'll likely be an everyday guy until he cools off.

Minnesota - Livan Hernandez hasn't won since May 12, and he's currently allowing five hits for every strikeout he records (136 H, 28 K in 89 1/3 IP). Basically, he's doing about what should have been expected from him as an AL pitcher. The Twins should cut him loose and give Francisco Liriano another opportunity. Hernandez will get a few more starts first to try to turn it around and he might even have some modest success against NL teams, but he doesn't belong in an AL rotation. … It looks like Jason Kubel, who is now second on the Twins in both homers and RBI, is through losing time to Craig Monroe. He's a sleeper to amass some value in mixed leagues the rest of the way. … With the Twins still in contention, it will be interesting to see if the team considers trading for a third baseman next month. Mike Lamb has been one of baseball's worst regulars, and he'd remain a liability on defense even if he did pick it up offensively. Hank Blalock, Edwin Encarnacion, Bill Hall, Melvin Mora, Casey Blake, Jose Bautista and Aaron Boone are candidates to become available. Hall's long-term deal would make him a poor fit, but the Twins should have room in their budget to rent Blalock or Blake. Encarnacion might be the ideal choice, as he'll be due a modest salary next year and won't be eligible for free agency until after 2011. The Twins should consider offering up a couple of their pitching prospects.

New York - When Robinson Cano hit .295 with just six strikeouts in 95 at-bats in May, it seemed likely that he'd settle back in as a top-notch fantasy second baseman after his horrible beginning. However, he's back nearly duplicating his April numbers this month. Cano is still hardly ever striking out, and he's not hitting any more grounders than usual. Even his line-drive percentage is right where it was last year. He's had more than a few awkward swings, but there's nothing to suggest that he's injured. He certainly hasn't been limited at all in the field. He's simply too talented not to turn it around eventually, and a second half similar to last year's (.343-13-57) wouldn't come as much of a surprise. There will never be a better time to trade for him. … The Yankees are reportedly shopping LaTroy Hawkins, but they might as well just release him. Bringing him back to the American League was a horrible idea. In fact, I thought he'd be gone by Memorial Day. J.B. Cox's arm woes might buy Hawkins a little more time, but the Yankees still have better bets in Triple-A.

Oakland - I thought Carlos Gonzalez would be the choice to go, but Travis Buck was optioned to make room for Ryan Sweeney on Friday. Sweeney will replace Buck as the right fielder against righties, with Gonzalez staying in center field. The A's could have kept all three and gotten rid of Rajai Davis, but they weren't going to have enough at-bats available for that many youngsters. Emil Brown will probably be reduced to getting most of his starts against lefties now. The A's have had the opportunity to use Jack Cust at DH with Frank Thomas down, but he's remained in left field for the most part. … Thomas won't return from his quad injury on Friday as hoped, giving the A's more time to evaluate whether they're better going forward with Daric Barton or Jack Hannahan. Both are starters right now, but one could be dropped from the roster after Thomas returns. Barton has rebounded from a .139 month of May to hit .317 so far in June. … A sore groin has caused Huston Street to cut his delivery a little short, costing him velocity. If he has some shaky outings in the near future, that will probably be the reason.



Seattle - J.J. Putz's hyperextended elbow is no major injury, but the Mariners made the right move putting him on the disabled list. He hasn't been nearly himself at any point since returning from his rib injury, and some time off, followed by at least a couple of rehab appearances, should do him some good. Brandon Morrow is the clear favorite for saves in the Seattle pen with Putz sidelined. The Mariners didn't name him the closer, but that's probably just because they didn't want to put too much pressure on him. … An open stance has helped Richie Sexson hit .263 this month (10-for-38), but that's come without even one extra-base hit. Sexson would be just as much of a liability as a pure singles hitter that he was as an all-or-nothing (mostly nothing) slugger. … R.A. Dickey should be an upgrade from Miguel Batista in the rotation, even if he hardly looked like it Friday against the Nationals. Still, the Mariners are calling it a short-term switch. It won't really have any fantasy ramifications unless Morrow falters and Batista takes over the closer's role.

Tampa Bay - Rocco Baldelli, out since the spring with a mitochondrial disorder, is scheduled to begin a 20-day rehab assignment in the minors on Monday. There's absolutely no guarantee that he'll come back and contribute next month, but it's possible he could be useful in a limited role. AL-only leaguers with an open bench spot should consider stashing him away. … That Carl Crawford opted to serve his four-game suspension without filing an appeal could be taken as an indication that he's hurting more than anyone suspects. His performance suggests it. His sore right knee hasn't stopped him from stealing bases, but his OPS is down to 675. He's 7-for-37 with just one extra-base hit during June. If the four-game break doesn't do him any good and he continues to slump over the rest of the month, it will be time to start shopping him. The return won't be what it was at the beginning of the year, but it might be worth it anyway.

Texas - The Rangers have Chris Davis nearly ready and they just used their first-round pick on a polished college first baseman in Justin Smoak, so they have more incentive than ever to leave Jarrod Saltalamacchia at catcher. However, Salty has been a liability behind the plate this year, especially when it comes to throwing out basestealers. The Rangers may want to try him in left field if he fails to show substantial progress over the rest of this season. They do have another elite catching prospect in Taylor Teagarden, as well as Max Ramirez, a minor league catcher who is likely to end up at first base or DH for the long haul. … Hank Blalock (wrist) could return as the Rangers' first baseman on Friday. Chris Shelton is likely to be dropped from the roster.

Toronto - There's certainly no reason to make the move while interleague play is going on, but Shaun Marcum could be a nice sell-high candidate later this month. He struggled to hold up physically in a 2007 season in which he threw just 159 innings. This year, he's on 215-inning pace. He's due to start giving up more homers on his 88-mph fastball anyway. That he's getting more grounders than he did last year is a good sign for the long-term, but he still gives up his share of flies, especially to left-handed hitters. …
Gregg Zaun (elbow) is expected back this week, though he probably won't play as much as he did before getting hurt, as Rod Barajas has done a nice job as the starter. Curtis Thigpen will be sent down. … Vernon Wells is questionable for Sunday because of soreness in the wrist he broke last month, but he appears to be OK to use this week. … Aaron Hill (concussion) apparently will miss another full week.

[Hache Man]

NL Team-by-Team Notes
Now that they no longer have to worry about him being a super-two player, the Padres are promoting Chase Headley to take over in left field. It likely would have happened weeks ago, or maybe on Opening Day, if money wasn't a factor. The team hasn't ruled out giving Headley the occasional start at third base, but he'll mostly play the outfield. A strict platoon of Jody Gerut and Scott Hairston could be set up in the outfield, costing Hairston most of his value. Headley should be an asset in NL-only leagues the rest of the way, but with Petco working against him, he's a long shot to be of much use in mixed leagues. Think .270 with 8-10 homers and about 45 RBI.

National League Notes

Arizona - Randy Johnson's velocity readings were down in a poor outing against the Royals, but the Diamondbacks said that was a radar gun problem. No one is making the same excuse for Brandon Webb, though the hope is that he's just going through a dead-arm phase. Even with his sinker lacking as much as action as usual, he's been terrific in two of his last three starts and it took some bad play behind him to get him charged with three earned runs over five innings in the other. I'm not particularly concerned yet. Johnson is a tougher call. He seems to be causing his own problems of late, but he hasn't been anywhere near as sharp as he was at the end of last month. The Diamondbacks may need to look for ways to give him an extra day or two off in between starts. … Eric Byrnes (hamstrings) won't be activated Tuesday as hoped, but Friday is realistic. With six games in AL parks still coming up, the Diamondbacks could keep Chad Tracy in the lineup for an extra week even if Byrnes returns on Friday and forces Conor Jackson back to first base.

Atlanta - Charlie Morton didn't seem phased by much of anything in his major league debut Saturday against the Angels. Showing good command of a 91-94 mph fastball and an improved changeup, he was able to hold the Angels to two runs in six innings and pick up a win. Morton didn't make the cut for my Braves' top 15 prospects over the winter -- he wasn't even particularly close to making Baseball America's top 30 -- but he did get a writeup in the draft guide based on a strong AFL season that suggested a breakthrough was possible. I'm not yet convinced he won't eventually end up in the bullpen, but he has a rotation spot for now and he's well worth picking up in NL-only leagues. … Rafael Soriano (elbow) went back on the DL on Saturday, but the Braves still haven't been in any hurry to activate Mike Gonzalez. If they were going strictly by his minor league numbers, which have been great, he would have been back a week ago. His velocity isn't where it once was, but that's no surprise, and with the way he's throwing strikes lately, he could succeed in the majors in the high-80s. The opportunity should be there for him to seize the closer's role before the end of the month. Blaine Boyer looks like the favorite for saves in the meantime. … Brandon Jones' surprising hot start since being called up has given him some short-term value in NL-only leagues. Greg Norton will lose at-bats. atlantabraves.com

Chicago - There doesn't appear to be any set plan for left field with Alfonso Soriano (finger) out for at least another four or five weeks, but early indications are that manager Lou Piniella isn't willing to live with Micah Hoffpauir's limited range there. That leaves Reed Johnson, Eric Patterson and Mark DeRosa to share time, with Ronny Cedeno likely playing second when DeRosa moves to the outfield. Johnson would likely win the job if he could get hot, and he's worth playing in NL-only leagues regardless. Patterson probably isn't, at least not yet. Matt Murton is unlikely to get the call unless he starts showing more power in Triple-A. … Kosuke Fukudome's value would get a mild boost if he was left in the second spot in the order on a full-time basis. It's where he's belonged all along. Jim Edmonds would also have additional value, since the Cubs aren't ready to bat Geovany Soto fifth behind Aramis Ramirez (too many righties in a row, apparently). Ryan Theriot would lose out. He'd likely lead off when Johnson sits, but he and his .388 OBP might spend considerable time in the eighth spot.

Cincinnati - It's far too soon to deem Homer Bailey a lost cause, but the Reds did him no favors in streamlining his delivery this spring. His fastball is down about three mph, and his curveball also doesn't seem to have its usual break. I'd say he's right where Gavin Floyd was three years ago, and like Floyd in Philly, he may be in need of a change of scenery if things don't turn around soon. First, he needs to go back to his old windup, and for that kind of change, a return to Triple-A will be required. Josh Fogg could be activated to replace him in the rotation. … While it ended up being a moot point after Jerry Hairston Jr. suffered a broken thumb, the Reds reportedly wanted Jeff Keppinger (knee) to focus on playing third base on his rehab assignment. They could be open to trading Edwin Encarnacion next month after Alex Gonzalez (knee) comes off the DL. Keppinger would take over at third base if it happens. Encarnacion remains a big-time talent, but he hasn't put it together under Dusty Baker as hoped. I still think he could break through at any time, and he has been hot of late. Since he's 25 and he's under control for three more years, he won't be given away. If the Rangers wanted to commit to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a trade of top catching prospect Taylor Teagarden for Encarnacion would make some sense for both teams.

Colorado - The Brian Fuentes rumors have started up and won't go away unless the Rockies make a big run before the All-Star break. He's a free agent at season's end, so it would make sense to move him if the Rockies aren't going to contend. If the Rockies do pull of a trade, they'll have to decide whether to go back to Manny Corpas in the closer's role or if they should turn to their best reliever so far this year, Taylor Buchholz. Corpas has pitched better over the last month, but he still has a lot of work to do if hopes to overtake the former Astro. Buchholz has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's best suited for a short-relief role, and he'd probably do just fine as a closer. He's worth considering in shallow mixed leagues. … Troy Tulowitzki (quad) and Clint Barmes (knee) are both candidates to return from the disabled list on Friday. Jonathan Herrera has already been sent down, and either Omar Quintanilla or Ian Stewart will also head back to Triple-A. It will likely be Stewart if the Rockies intend to use Barmes as their primary second baseman. Stewart is too young to be kept as a reserve.



Florida - The Marlins have three starting pitchers on the disabled list with serious arm problems, and they watched Dontrelle Willis lose his best stuff and become one of the NL's worst starters last year. What could Fredi Gonzalez possibly have been thinking when he let Ricky Nolasco, a 25-year-old who battled elbow woes himself last year, throw 132 pitches -- the most by any pitcher in either league since 2006 -- in his start Sunday? It was the most irresponsible act committed by any manager this season. … Josh Johnson started a rehab assignment on Saturday and could return in a month. He's worth grabbing in NL-only leagues, though there's at least a 50/50 shot he'll suffer some sort of setback in his return from Tommy John surgery. … The Marlins are saying Josh Willingham (shoulder) probably won't be activated until next Tuesday, but there's still a pretty good chance that he'll be back Friday if his rehab in the minors goes well. Luis Gonzalez will lose most of his playing time after Willingham makes it back.

Houston - There was a time when Roy Oswalt had the NL's best fastball, but that's in the past. He's lost a couple of MPH, and his curveball isn't the strikeout pitch it was. What Oswalt is in 2008 is a reliable six- or seven-inning starter who will have trouble with the elite offenses. He still has some value in shallow mixed leagues, but no one should be looking to trade for him. … Ty Wigginton has actually been better than usual, but the Astros are talking about sitting him against more right-handers. That wouldn't be a bad idea if there was a legitimate alternative around, but the choice to replace him would be Geoff Blum, who is currently rocking a .233/.256/.362 line in 116 at-bats. Wigginton might as well play unless the Astros can trade for a capable left-handed hitter, and as few minor league resources as they have, it's not worth it go give up talent for a short-term upgrade in a year in which they remain unlikely to make the playoffs.

Los Angeles - Baseball teams never cease to amaze me. Brad Penny is making $8.5 million this year. It's been known for a full month that he's having shoulder issues, and to hear him talk now, it's clear he was having problems well before he had the start pushed back in May. However, it's only now that he's undergoing an MRI. It's likely that he'll land on the disabled list, and lefty Eric Stults appears to be the favorite to replace him in the rotation. Stults has made seven starts for the Dodgers since debuting in 2006, going 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA in the process. He's adequate as far as fifth starters go, but he's not much of a fantasy sleeper. … Since Blake DeWitt is hitting .196 with no RBI in 46 at-bats this month, it might not be long before Adam LaRoche gets a real look at third base. LaRoche's power still isn't all the way back after he suffered ligament damage in his right thumb on a freak play this spring, but it's not like DeWitt stands out there, either, and LaRoche should prove to be the better of the two at getting on base. He's also arguably the superior defender. Even with the threat of Nomar Garciaparra getting another chance next month, LaRoche should be picked up in any NL-only leagues in which he's available. … Before he's a candidate to play third, Garciaparra will take over at shortstop upon returning from his calf injury. Expect awful defense and nowhere near enough offense to make up for it.

Milwaukee - The hope is that J.J. Hardy (shoulder) will be back on Tuesday, but it's not a given. If he's forced to the DL, the team could call up defensive whiz Alcides Escobar to play shortstop. Still, NL-only leaguers should take the chance on leaving him active. … Bill Hall has looked even worse at second filling in for Rickie Weeks (knee) than he did at third. The Brewers might as well go with Craig Counsell's reliable glove or Joe Dillon's more consistent bat there until Weeks comes back in a week or two. … Eric Gagne (shoulder) resumed throwing off a mound Sunday, but he would seem to be at least a week away from rejoining the Brewers and hopefully considerably further away from getting another chance to close.

New York - Trot Nixon may not have been the ideal choice to fill one of the holes in the Mets' outfield, but at least GM Omar Minaya finally did something, anything, to address the problem. Nixon should have some short-term value while starting against right-handers. There will still be room for him even if Ryan Church returns from post-concussion syndrome this weekend as hoped. … Billy Wagner's velocity has been up and down, but that was also the case last year. He was still lights out until blowing three straight saves due in part to poor command. Judging from the way he bounced back Sunday, there's not a lot to worry about here. He still has a 34/6 K/BB ratio in 28 innings on the season. newyorkmets.com

Philadelphia - After a sluggish start, Kyle Kendrick is back pitching pretty well. In fact, throw out a game in which a rain delay caused him to leave after one inning and the Phillies have won his last 10 starts. For the season, he's 6-2 with a 4.55 ERA. He's remained solid even though his strikeout rate is just as awful as it was last year and his walk rate has gone from great to merely good. Kendrick gets more grounders than the average pitcher, controls the running game well and fields his position. Still, it's going to be hard for him to last as a starter while striking out just over two batters an outing. Even Kirk Rueter struck out more guys than Kendrick is. The 23-year-old remains a poor bet in NL-only leagues.



Pittsburgh - John Russell must be one patient man. Freddy Sanchez is up to 280 at-bats with his ugly .232/.265/.307 line, yet he continues to bat second for the Pirates day after day. Sanchez's shoulder problems have clearly played a role in the second baseman's struggles. He's been unable to drive the ball with any consistency, so he's stuck on 12 doubles after hitting 53 in 2006 and 42 last year. Since Sanchez rarely walks, he's a useless player if he's not hitting for average. He should be batting eighth right now. … The time to buy low on Ian Snell may or may not be coming to a close. He's impressed in consecutive starts. However, he does have the White Sox and Blue Jays on the schedule for this week. Once interleague play is over, he should resume being a decent choice in mixed leagues. … Xavier Nady's bruised shoulder isn't expected to keep him from playing this week.

St. Louis - Albert Pujols seems likely to be back before the three-week mark as he overcomes a calf injury, but he's not going to be an option this week. Chris Duncan will continue to play first base against right-handers. If he does well, he'll be put back into the outfield mix after Pujols returns. … Trying to return from forearm soreness after missing just one start, Wellemeyer was tattooed by the Phillies on Friday. He admits that the problem is still there, but he expects to pitch this week anyway. Mixed leaguers should reserve him. … Matt Clement (shoulder) and Mark Mulder (shoulder) both could be options for the St. Louis rotation before Adam Wainwright (finger) returns. I've been as pessimistic as anyone about Mulder's chances of contributing, but he's coming off his most encouraging rehab start. I still think both are long shots to help out in NL-only leagues, but I would gamble on Mulder first, even though Clement has the better chance of making a start for the Cardinals before the end of the month. … Assuming that Yadier Molina's head and neck injury Sunday puts him on the disabled list, the Cardinals will probably go with Jason LaRue and Mark Johnson behind the plate. Prospect Bryan Anderson isn't ready to contribute.

San Diego - The Padres are still nine games under .500, but they've been the best club in the weak NL West lately and any team viewing at them as potential sellers could come away disappointed. In fact, the Padres are likely to look into buying any center fielders or cheap second basemen that become available. Tadahito Iguchi (shoulder) will return next month, but he's been a liability. GM Kevin Towers could also pursue a veteran starter. Livan Hernandez might fit into their budget, and San Diego remains the logical destination for Kei Igawa if the Yankees are ready to give up on him. … If the Padres do decide to stay in the race, it would be bad news for Brian Giles owners. Giles was the one hitter very likely to be moved if the team decided to sell, and given his lack of success at Petco -- he's hit .313 with 13 of his 17 homers on the road since the beginning of last year -- he could have resumed being a solid mixed-league outfielder elsewhere.

San Francisco - Omar Vizquel did steal home on Friday, but his knee woes seem to be getting the better of him since he came off the disabled list five weeks ago. At this point, outfielders can play him shallower than they do most of the Giants' pitchers and he no longer has the speed to leg out many infield singles. The idea of a contender trading for him as an upgrade at shortstop seems laughable. By the time August rolls around, it's going to make sense for the Giants to move him into a backup role, especially if they insist on keeping their young infielders in the majors. … Kevin Correia's return from a strained oblique does upgrade the rotation, but Correia probably won't be of any use in NL-only leagues until after interleague play concludes.

Washington - Tyler Clippard threw well in a win over the Mariners, but he's expected to head back to the minors to make room for Paul Lo Duca on Tuesday. Garrett Mock could be brought back when a replacement for Odalis Perez (shoulder) is again needed later in the week. Lo Duca will return as a backup catcher and possible occasional first baseman and left fielder. The Nats should be open to trading him to any team willing to pick up his salary. Even as much as he's declined, he'd be an upgrade over Brad Ausmus for the Astros. … With Austin Kearns (elbow) due back around the end of the month, this is a big week for Wily Mo Pena. If he doesn't heat up soon, he could find himself on the waiver wire when Kearns gets back. He passed the 150-AB mark on Sunday, yet he still has just one homer. … Neither Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder) nor Nick Johnson (wrist) is looking like a very good bet to return before the All-Star break. Perhaps Kory Casto will have a little value in NL-only leagues after all.

[Hache Man]

Headley Set to Join Padres
Lots of good stuff from the weekend to catch up on, so let's get right to the notes from around baseball …

* Chase Headley joined the Padres over the weekend and will be officially be added to the roster in time for Tuesday's game. Formerly a top third-base prospect, Headley shifted to left field this season because of Kevin Kouzmanoff's presence at the hot corner in San Diego. His bat hasn't suffered any due to the defensive switch, as Headley has hit .305/.383/.556 with 13 homers, 38 total extra-base hits, and 31 walks in 65 games at Triple-A.

He's MLB-ready and has a strong all-around offensive game, but doesn't project as a fantasy star thanks to a high strikeout rate and Petco Park. Headley has 65 strikeouts in 65 games this year and struck out 114 times in 121 games at Double-A last season. Beyond that, his 20-homer pop will be muted by a home ballpark that depresses power more than any other spot in the majors. Toss in zero potential for steals and Headley's upside likely falls under "good" more than "great."

* Chien-Ming Wang was cruising through the Astros' lineup Sunday with five scoreless innings when he bunted into a seemingly innocuous fielder's choice in the top of the sixth frame. He then advanced to second base and scored on a Derek Jeter single that opened the floodgates to an eight-run inning, but injured his foot in the process and had to exit the game. Wang still picked up his eighth win, but the Yankees announced afterward that he has a sprained right foot.

Wang is scheduled to undergo an MRI exam Monday, at which point the Yankees should have a clearer picture about his status. Immediately calling it a sprain probably isn't a great sign and neither was Wang telling reporters after the game that "it hurts a lot" before being driven out of the clubhouse on a golf cart. For now, count on him missing at least one turn in the rotation and don't be surprised if a stint on the disabled list is needed.

* Desperate for an MLB-quality outfielder with both Ryan Church and Moises Alou sidelined, the Mets acquired Trot Nixon from the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Nixon failed to win a spot on Arizona's roster this spring, but the 34-year-old veteran accepted an assignment to Triple-A and earned his way back to the majors by hitting .309/.437/.558 with 10 homers in 58 games. His Mets debut came Sunday and Nixon went 2-for-3 with two walks starting in right field.

Nixon posted a career-best .974 OPS in 2003, but that dropped to .887 in 2004, .803 in 2005, .767 in 2006, and .678 last season. Even with the strong showing at Triple-A he's obviously no longer the player that he once was, but Nixon remains a solid option against right-handed pitching and should get a chance for regular playing time in the Mets' outfield for at least the next couple weeks. For now, count on Nixon emerging with decent value in NL-only leagues.

* Matt Capps blew a save Sunday for the third time in four appearances, but recovered to pitch a scoreless 10th inning while picking up his first win of the season. Capps is still sporting a solid 2.88 ERA and it's unlikely that his job is in any kind of serious danger. Since taking over as the Pirates' closer midway through last season, he's converted 34-of-39 (87.2 percent) save chances while quietly posting a 2.25 ERA, 64-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.00 WHIP in 84 innings.

* Reds fans weren't pleased with my advice to avoid Homer Bailey when he was called up from Triple-A earlier this month, but so far at least it looks like the right move. Bailey has struggled in all three starts, including an ugly outing Sunday against the Red Sox that saw him serve up three homers. His lack of velocity has been cause for concern, especially because his control remains iffy at best. Bailey has handed out 10 walks compared to just three strikeouts over 12.1 innings.

* On the other hand, my advice to keep expectations in check for Bailey's teammate Jay Bruce looked silly when he hit .457/.554/.739 with three homers and nine walks through his first dozen games. Bruce has come back down to earth since, going hitless in four at-bats Sunday to make him just 5-for-30 (.167) with an 8-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past eight games. He's still sporting 1.000 OPS, but expect that to settle into the .800-.850 range eventually.

* As driver of the Jason Kubel bandwagon that was stalled for much of the season, it pleases me to see him living up to my hype. Kubel tied Justin Morneau for the team lead with his 10th homer Sunday and continues to receive playing time at the expense of Delmon Young. He's 13-for-40 (.325) with four homers in a dozen games this month, giving him 23 homers and 101 RBIs in 695 plate appearances dating back to last season.

AL Quick Hits: Alex Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with a homer Sunday, giving him five homers, 16 RBIs, and 15 runs in 15 games this month … C.C. Sabathia continued his impressive roll Sunday, tossing eight innings of three-run ball while racking up 10 strikeouts … Gary Sheffield (oblique) is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Monday at Single-A … Josh Beckett shut out the Reds for seven innings Sunday, improving to 9-1 during interleague play as a member of the Red Sox … Gil Meche totaled 10 strikeouts in Sunday's victory, reaching double digits for the first time since May of 2006 … Eric Chavez collected three hits Sunday, making him 16-for-55 (.291) since coming off the disabled list … Grady Sizemore homered Sunday, giving him nine long balls over the past 16 games … David DeJesus went 3-for-5 with his first career grand slam Sunday, and is now hitting .345 with three homers this month … A pair of steals Sunday gave Jacoby Ellsbury the new Red Sox rookie record at 33 and he's half way to the AL rookie record of 66 from Kenny Lofton in 1992.

NL Quick Hits: After three straight blown saves, Billy Wagner had a perfect ninth inning Sunday to close out a two-run lead … Ryan Howard drove in four runs Sunday, giving him 46 RBIs in 43 games since May 1 … Clayton Kershaw had four shutout innings when the rain hit Sunday and didn't return following a delay … Aaron Cook held the White Sox to three runs over six innings Sunday, winning for the 10th time in 13 starts … Brett Myers coughed up six runs over six innings Sunday and now leads baseball with 20 homers allowed … Manager Lou Piniella said Saturday that Reed Johnson will be the primary leadoff man while Alfonso Soriano (hand) is out … Brad Hawpe went deep Sunday and now has four homers in nine games since coming off the disabled list … Mark Mulder (shoulder) began his second minor-league rehab assignment Saturday, tossing five scoreless innings at Double-A while being clocked around 90 miles per hour … After pinch-hitting Sunday, Andy LaRoche made his big-league debut at second base … Josh Johnson kicked off his comeback from Tommy John surgery with five solid innings Saturday at Single-A.

[Hache Man]

Bad News for Wang, Bavasi
Monday brought just about the worst possible news on Chien-Ming Wang's right foot injury. He may miss the remainder of the season after being diagnosed with a mid-foot sprain of the Lisfranc ligament, which fantasy football owners no doubt recognize as a dreaded injury. Wang is likely to avoid surgery and a late-season return hasn't totally been ruled out, but he'll wear a protective boot while walking on crutches for at least six weeks.

Even before official word on Wang's injury came out the newspapers in New York were filled with speculation about the Yankees going after C.C. Sabathia, so now that Wang is likely done for the season the Sabathia gossip can be expected to intensify dramatically. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro spent all winter saying that the Indians wouldn't trade Sabathia despite his being an impending free agent, but has recently backed off that stance somewhat.

After missing out on Johan Santana this offseason it certainly makes sense for the Yankees to make a strong push for Sabathia and the Indians' disappointing season is surely behind Shapiro's changing tune. With that said, the Yankees either couldn't or wouldn't put together a package for Santana that enticed the Twins. They're probably more willing to part with Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes now, but both pitchers have also seen their stock decline somewhat of late.

For now the Yankees will replace Wang with journeyman Dan Giese, who'll make his first MLB start Saturday against the Reds. Giese is 31 years old and has spent a decade in the minors, going 25-12 with a 3.25 ERA and 297-to-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 343 innings at Triple-A. Aaron Small going 10-0 before sliding back into obscurity is proof that strange things can happen when the Yankees call up a minor-league veteran, but Giese is at best a passable fifth starter.

While the Yankees lose a pitcher who's gone 46-15 (.754) over the past three seasons compared to the rest of the staff going 182-151 (.546), here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi deservedly got the ax Monday after guiding the team to a pitiful 322-395 (.449) record in parts of five seasons at the helm of the one of the game's largest payrolls. Bavasi spent much of his tenure simply making the Mariners older by pulling off several misguided trades and overpaying mediocre veteran free agents, leading to an MLB-worst record despite a $110 million payroll to build around Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki.

Manager John McLaren will almost surely follow Bavasi out the door soon enough, but before that happens he decided to make a big lineup shift Monday. McLaren moved Ichiro from center field back to his old spot in right field, which is a questionable enough decision on its own. Not only did Ichiro win a Gold Glove in center field last season, during his career he's hit almost exactly as well in center field (.332 with an .800 OPS) as he has in right field (.331 with an .814 OPS).

Toss in the fact that MLB right fielders as a group out-hit MLB center fielders by 50 points of OPS and the move seemingly makes zero sense. So why did McLaren make the switch? To get Willie Bloomquist and his .256/.312/.322 career mark into the lineup in center field, naturally. He's long been among the worst hitters in baseball and is far from a great defensive center fielder, yet Ichiro changed positions so that Bloomquist could start there Monday as Seattle fell to 24-46.

* Mike Gonzalez has posted a sparkling 0.82 ERA and 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his minor-league rehab assignment, which apparently convinced the Braves that he's ready to return from Tommy John elbow surgery. Gonzalez is expected to come off the disabled list Wednesday and manager Bobby Cox replied "yes, absolutely" when asked Monday night whether he could quickly be in the mix for saves given the team's bullpen struggles.

"We may put him in a game just to see, we'll play it by ear," Cox said. "Hopefully we can count on him for the very end, eighth and ninth innings. If he's back to his old form, it's a huge plus." Gonzalez has been sidelined for 13 months, but already appears to have rediscovered his stuff and has some past experience closing within his 2.29 ERA over 186 big-league appearances. If he can put together 2-3 strong outings right away, expect Gonzalez to be in the mix for saves.

AL Quick Hits: David Ortiz (wrist) had his cast removed in favor of a splint Monday, but there's no timetable established yet for his return … Travis Hafner has suffered a setback in his recovery from a strained shoulder and appears unlikely to be activated this week … Ramon Vazquez came into this year as a .250/.319/.343 hitter in 490 career games, but after going 3-for-4 with a homer Sunday he's now batting .336/.404/.534 in 48 games this season … Bartolo Colon allowed four runs over four innings Monday before leaving his start with back soreness … Fernando Rodney came off the disabled list Monday, with Joel Zumaya set to join him in the Tigers' bullpen later this week … Curt Schilling (biceps) has been shut down for a few days following what was described as a "sluggish" bullpen session over the weekend … After sending a personal letter to every MLB team pleading for a job, Jay Gibbons has signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League … Kevin Youkilis was scratched from Monday's lineup with back spasms, giving Sean Casey a start at first base.

NL Quick Hits: As expected, manager Manny Acta said Sunday that Jesus Flores will remain the Nationals' starting catcher even after Paul Lo Duca (hand) returns from the disabled list … Micah Owings struggled Sunday for the fourth straight start, making him 0-3 with a 9.95 ERA during that stretch after beginning the season 6-2 with a 3.73 ERA through 10 outings … Cole Hamels held the Red Sox to two runs over seven innings Monday despite serving up solo homers to J.D. Drew and Dustin Pedroia … Xavier Nady has been diagnosed with a sprained shoulder after colliding with the outfield wall Saturday, meaning that a trip to the DL is possible … About a month into his 4-6 week recovery timetable, Nick Johnson (wrist) is scheduled to be examined Tuesday … Ryan Church (concussion) is aiming to return on June 23, saying Sunday that he hasn't "had any spells or anything like that" recently … Eric Byrnes (hamstrings) is hoping to begin a minor-league rehab assignment this week, with manager Bob Melvin saying Sunday that he'll be back by June 23 at the latest … Despite an ugly looking collision at home plate Sunday, Yadier Molina appears to have avoided serious injury and may stay off the DL. atlantabraves.com

[Hache Man]

Clement: Take Two
Moving Ichiro Suzuki back to right field in order to get Willie Bloomquist's horrible bat into the lineup is a mistake, but the Mariners made a good decision Tuesday in the wake of firing general manager Bill Bavasi by recalling Jeff Clement from Triple-A. He got all of 56 plate appearances to prove himself last time and struggled, but hit .287 with nine homers, nine doubles, 23 RBIs, and a .670 slugging percentage in 24 games at Tacoma following his demotion.

Clement didn't start Tuesday because the Mariners were facing a left-hander and clearly needed Jose Vidro to go 0-for-5 while dropping his OPS to .578, but should see the bulk of the action at designated hitter against right-handers. He has a strong all-around offensive game that includes 25-homer power and could emerge with mixed-league value wherever he's eligible at catcher. For now, count on him being an asset in AL-only leagues if the Mariners show some patience.

While the Mariners hopefully allow Clement more than 15 games to sink or swim this time, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Brandon Webb was pulled from his start last Wednesday after just five innings and 58 pitches amid concerns about decreased velocity, saying afterward that he may be going through a "dead arm" period. If that outing caused worry among his fantasy owners, Tuesday's start against the A's may cause something a little closer to panic. Webb allowed seven runs without making it out of the fourth inning, once again showing diminished velocity and shaky command.

Webb served up multiple homers for the first time in 39 starts and walked five batters for the first time in 31 starts. Since beginning the season 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA, Webb has gone 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA. That's hardly disastrous, of course, but something clearly isn't right with him right now. He's scheduled to face the Twins in Minnesota on Sunday, but pushing him back wouldn't be such a bad thing given his recent struggles and 5.11 career ERA on turf.

* Tuesday was rough on the Dodgers' rotation, as Brad Penny landed on the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis and Hiroki Kuroda was scratched from his scheduled start Wednesday with shoulder soreness of his own. An MRI on Penny's shoulder revealed no structural damage and for now the injury is expected to sideline him for just 2-3 starts, but returning after the minimum 15 days on the DL is far from a sure thing given that he's been complaining of soreness all month.

Kuroda is scheduled to undergo an MRI instead of pitching Wednesday, at which point the team should have a better handle on his status. Derek Lowe will take his place, with recent call-up Eric Stults taking the mound Thursday and Clayton Kershaw getting the call Friday. Saturday's start may go to either Chan Ho Park or Hong-Chih Kuo unless the Dodgers want to call up another prospect. Stults has minimal fantasy potential, but the injuries give Kershaw more job security.

* Bartolo Colon surprised everyone by looking like his old self through five starts for the Red Sox, going 4-1 with a 3.41 ERA. Unfortunately, Colon struggled in his sixth outing Monday and was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with back soreness. He apparently tweaked his back while taking a big cut at the plate, meaning that like Chien-Ming Wang he's sidelined thanks to interleague play. Unlike Wang, he's not expected to miss a huge chunk of time.

In fact, Colon indicated Tuesday that he may have been able to avoid the DL altogether, but the Red Sox understandably chose to play it safe. Colon's injury means that Justin Masterson will now remain in the majors once Daisuke Matsuzaka returns from the DL this weekend, giving the Daily Dose favorite at least a couple more starts to impress. Masterson is 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA through five starts and has induced a grounder on an outstanding 54 percent of his balls in play.

AL Quick Hits: Closing with J.J. Putz (elbow) sidelined, Brandon Morrow slammed the door on a one-run lead Tuesday to give Felix Hernandez his fourth straight win … Jon Lester tossed seven shutout innings Tuesday, allowing three or fewer earned runs for the 10th straight start … Milton Bradley is considered day-to-day after leaving Tuesday's game with a strained quadriceps, but given his injury history some time off should be expected … Jason Giambi homered twice Tuesday and is now sporting a ridiculous .376/.485/.788 line since mid-May … Livan Hernandez came into Tuesday's game 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA and .438 opponent's batting average over his last six starts, but held the Nationals to one run over seven innings … Scott Kazmir was on track for his eighth straight Quality Start before being pulled from Tuesday's game in the fifth inning due to a high pitch count … Mike Aviles smacked a game-winning solo homer Tuesday and now has nine extra-base hits in a dozen games … Mark Ellis reached base five times Tuesday, homering twice and scoring four runs … Edgar Renteria collected his 2,000th career hit Tuesday and is still nearly two months shy of his 33rd birthday.

NL Quick Hits: Jose Reyes is considered day-to-day after leaving Tuesday's game with a strained hamstring … Much to Bill Hall's chagrin, Russell Branyan homered Tuesday for the eighth time in 18 games … Chase Headley made his season debut Tuesday, starting in left field and batting sixth while going 2-for-4 with two strikeouts … Manager Joe Torre said Tuesday that he doesn't expect Rafael Furcal (back) to return before the All-Star break, clearing the path for Nomar Garciaparra to see time at shortstop soon … Chris Carpenter (elbow) was cleared to resume throwing after Dr. James Andrews found no structural damage during an exam Monday … Ryan Braun went deep twice Tuesday, giving him 15 homers over the past 34 games after homering a total of five times through his first 35 games … John Lannan tossed seven innings of two-run ball Tuesday against the Twins, but took the loss as the Nationals failed to give him more than two runs of support for the sixth straight start … Manny Parra allowed a career-high 10 hits in his last start, but bounced back Tuesday with seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays. newyorkmets.com

[Hache Man]

Sexson Done in Seattle?
After following up the firing of general manager Bill Bavasi by shifting Ichiro Suzuki back to right field and recalling Jeff Clement from Triple-A, the Mariners are reportedly on the verge of cutting Richie Sexson. In the final season of the four-year, $50 million contract that he signed as a free agent in December of 2004, Sexson has completely fallen apart after giving the Mariners a pair of 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons to begin the deal.

Sexson hit .205/.295/.399 in 121 games last year and is batting a nearly identical .220/.294/.380 in 58 games this season. With the Mariners holding MLB's worst record there's little reason to continue giving Sexson starts at first base or even devote a roster spot to him, so the team may decide to simply eat the remainder of his $14 million salary. Unfortunately, even if Sexson is cleared off the roster the Mariners don't have a young first baseman ready to step in for him.

Manager John McLaren made it clear Wednesday that Clement will see most of the playing time behind the plate, saying that he'll start at least three out of every five games. That leaves Kenji Johjima as a highly paid, veteran backup, although he's been working out at first base recently and could be asked to help replace Sexson. Of course, Johjima has already stated publicly that he's not fond of playing first base and he's been even worse than Sexson, hitting .224/.265/.299.

While interim general manager Lee Pelekoudas begins cleaning up Bavasi's considerable mess, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Mike Gonzalez came off the disabled list Wednesday after a year-long recovery from Tommy John surgery and immediately took on ninth-inning duties, closing out a three-run lead. His stuff isn't all the way back to pre-surgery levels, but a 0.82 ERA and 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during a minor-league rehab assignment was enough to convince the Braves that he's ready for prime time. Rafael Soriano is due back from the DL soon, but it looks like Gonzalez's job to lose.

* J.D. Drew continued his amazing month Wednesday, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs in a win over the Phillies. Drew is hitting .441 with a ridiculous 1.084 slugging percentage in June and is now up to .327/.432/.601 for the season to rank second among AL hitters in OPS behind only Milton Bradley. He got off to a slow start in Boston, but dating back to June 20 of last season he's hitting .311/.415/.530 with 19 homers, 79 RBIs, and 99 runs in 141 games.

* Carlos Zambrano struggled Wednesday against the Rays, allowing five runs on seven hits and four walks before exiting in the seventh inning with shoulder soreness. Zambrano tried to talk his way into staying in the game following catcher Geovany Soto calling for a trainer after noticing something wrong in his delivery, but later rubbed his shoulder in the dugout. He's scheduled to be examined Thursday, with Jon Lieber likely waiting in the wings as a potential fill in.

* When Homer Bailey was called up from Triple-A three weeks ago my advice was to stay away from the former top prospect because he didn't look ready to succeed in the majors. After going 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA and 3-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three starts the Reds came to the same conclusion, sending Bailey back to the minors Wednesday. At just 22 years old he still has plenty of potential, but Bailey's stock has dipped dramatically and he's a non-factor until 2009.

* Jeremy Guthrie was one of my "bust" candidates coming into the year and his 3-7 record might suggest that's been the case, but horrible run support has masked the fact that he's pitched every bit as well as last season. Guthrie got stuck with a no-decision Wednesday despite eight innings of one-run ball against the Astros and has received just 3.2 runs of support per start to rank 113th among 117 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings this season.

Wednesday's outing sliced his ERA to 3.51 and he racked up eight strikeouts to give him a solid 68-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 102.2 innings overall. He's far from an ace, but Guthrie now has a 3.63 ERA and 191-to-77 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 278 innings since joining the Orioles last year. He's convinced me that he can maintain a 4.00-4.50 ERA long term and looks like a solid buy-low candidate in AL-only leagues until his win-loss record begins to match his overall performance.

AL Quick Hits: Plans to begin a minor-league rehab assignment next week have been put on hold after Fausto Carmona complained of hip soreness following a 50-pitch simulated game … Manny Ramirez was scratched from Wednesday's game with hamstring soreness and Coco Crisp left in the third inning with a hand injury … Placido Polanco went 4-for-4 with three runs Wednesday, giving him 23 hits over the past 10 games to raise his batting average from .272 to .316 … Mark Buehrle turned in his sixth Quality Start in seven outings Wednesday, tossing eight innings of two-run ball against the Pirates … Erick Aybar returned from the disabled list Wednesday, but will have to wrestle his starting job back from a hot-hitting Maicer Izturis … Daily Dose favorite Justin Masterson held the Phillies to two runs on four singles Wednesday, improving to 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA … Carlos Quentin came into Wednesday's game hitting just .163 this month, but went 2-for-4 with a homer … Released by the Rangers following an off-field incident, Sidney Ponson agreed to terms Wednesday on a minor-league deal with the Yankees.

NL Quick Hits: Chase Utley went hitless Wednesday and is in the mist of a 0-for-20 slump that has dropped his OPS below 1.000 for just the second time this season … Barry Zito put together a solid May, but after being yanked from Wednesday's game in the third inning he's now 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA this month … After taking multiple foul balls off the mask Tuesday, Ryan Doumit was scratched from Wednesday's game with a slight concussion that could sideline him for several days … Kyle Kendrick lost Wednesday for the first time in two months and also saw his ERA rise back above 5.00 … Nomar Garciaparra (calf) homered in a minor-league rehab game Tuesday at Triple-A and remains on track to take over as the Dodgers' shortstop on June 25 … According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the Braves are interested in Randy Winn … Derek Lowe held the Reds to one run Wednesday, winning on the road for the first time since last August … Russell Branyan went deep again Wednesday, giving him nine homers in 59 at-bats … J.J. Hardy returned to the lineup Wednesday after missing five straight starts with a strained shoulder. atlantabraves.com

[Hache Man]

Will NL breakouts continue?
Joshua Randall and Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

As we near the midpoint of the 2008 season, there are some not-so-familiar faces at or near the top of the leaderboards.

Both regular fans and fantasy players have plenty to cheer about when a player exceeds expectations and performs at a new level. But as fantasy leaguers, we need to ask ourselves if a player's current performance is based more on skill or luck, and if he can keep it up for the rest of the season.

Here's what to expect from our five NL breakout players:

* Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida Marlins: Uggla was turning heads with his .285, 19-homer, 48-RBI performance entering the week, worth $28 in Rotisserie value, behind only Chase Utley among NL second basemen.

But Uggla's lofty average owes more to his lucky .351 batting average on balls put in play (BABIP) than it does to any underlying batting skill. This is a player who had struck out 78 times in 249 at-bats. His power, however, is legit: 51% of his balls in play were fly balls, and more than one-fifth of those were turning into home runs.

Expect Uggla to finish the season with a lower batting average (perhaps around .280) but with close to 40 homers and 100 RBI, which is monstrous production from a middle infield slot. Uggla, 28, is heading into the prime of his career, so his home run power could continue at the 30 to 35 level for several more seasons. However, unless he drastically reduces the strikeouts, he won't likely ever have the skills to bat .300.

* Ryan Dempster, RHP, Chicago Cubs: On the surface, Dempster's conversion from reliever to starter appears to be a rousing success. Dempster was 8-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a Rotisserie value of $27. Not bad for a player who probably wasn't drafted until the middle-teen rounds in most NL-only leagues.

Dempster is doing a couple of things right, but he's also been lucky. His 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) rate was no fluke; he owned a career 7.4 K/9 heading into 2008. And his current 2.1 K/walks ratio was right at the minimum level we consider necessary for pitching success.

He is also inducing ground balls at a high rate, allowing his defense to do some of the work.

However, batters have only a .226 BABIP against him, far below the league average (.300), which indicates that he's been fortunate not to have more batted balls fall in for hits. As that corrects, he will have more baserunners to contend with, and his ERA should rise.

We see Dempster finishing 2008 with 14 to 15 wins, a 3.35 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Though those numbers look good on the surface, they mean his ERA will be closer to 4.00 the rest of the way — respectable, but nothing special.

This season is probably his high-water mark as a starter. While he might be adequate in that role for a few more years, his current performance is far enough from his historical levels that a relapse would not be a surprise.

* Nate McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: In 270 at-bats, McLouth had already set career highs in homers (15), RBI (47) and stolen bases (seven) and was batting .296 with a .951 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). His $29 in Rotisserie value was tied for sixth among NL batters. Before this season, he hadn't cracked the .260 level nor had he had an OPS higher than .810 for a full season, so we have to ask if his performance is for real.

The answer is yes, for several reasons. First, McLouth had cut way down on his strikeouts (37), giving him his best contact rate at the major league level. The fact that his current contact rate matches his minor league contact rate (290 strikeouts over 2,096 at-bats) shows that he is capable of maintaining that level.

Second, McLouth was drawing walks in 10% of his plate appearances, another sign that his high average was no fluke. More walks mean more times on base, which means more opportunities to steal (though he hasn't needed to rely on the stolen base as much as in past years, thanks to his newfound power).

Third, nearly half the balls McLouth had put into play were in the air. That's a good sign that his home run hitting is sustainable. By the end of the season, expect him to have about 30 home runs, 15-plus stolen bases and a batting average around .290. That's a level he could maintain for several years, with more home runs but fewer steals as he ages.

* Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Ludwick has been a revelation for the Cardinals, mashing 16 home runs, knocking in 54 runs and batting .310. He's worth $29 in Rotisserie value. He had already matched or exceeded the numbers he put up last season in nearly 100 more at-bats.

Like Uggla, Ludwick strikes out a lot — 53 times in 213 at-bats — but also like Uggla, Ludwick had been the beneficiary of a lucky BABIP: .350. In his 637 at-bats from 2002 to 2007, he batted .251 with a normal .301 BABIP, so we can see how unusual his averages are.

Some of the expected batting average correction has already happened. Although he hit .309 in April and .333 in May, he was hitting .276 in June.

Ludwick's power numbers are more sustainable than his batting average. He had a 47% fly-ball ratio, the same as he had in 2007. We think he can crack the 30-homer/100-RBI barrier this season, but he'll finish with a batting average around .285. Note that this means he will bat about .265 for the remainder of the season.

Ludwick is nearing his peak power age (he'll turn 30 on July 13), so given enough at-bats in future seasons he could turn into a 30- to 35-home run hitter. However, with his swing-hard-but-miss-a-lot approach to batting, he will struggle to exceed a .280 average, assuming normal BABIP luck.

* Edinson Volquez, RHP, Cincinnati Reds: Volquez, who went undrafted in many fantasy leagues, is now worth $33 in Rotisserie value, thanks to a 9-2 record, 1.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 105 strikeouts (10.7 K/9). He was first in the majors in ERA and strikeouts and ranked third in wins. But can this rookie performance really be that good?

Volquez continues to strand runners at an unsustainably high rate, the highest such rate of any pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched. Furthermore, opposing batters had only a .281 BABIP again him. Our research tells us that pitchers with such high strand rates and such low opponents' BABIP can expect their ERA to rise. For Volquez, that ERA increase is already in progress. It was 1.23 in April, 1.63 in May and 2.25 in June.

Another warning sign for Volquez was his high walk rate (4.5 BB/9). Poor control has plagued him throughout his career, and only his high K/9 — and a lot of luck — has allowed him to get away with walking so many.

We believe Volquez will finish out 2008 with about 18 wins, a 2.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and close to 200 strikeouts. Those are great numbers, but they imply that for the remainder of the season he will pitch at a 3.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP pace — meaning he'll be worth only half as much in Rotisserie value.

Volquez has a bright future ahead of him if he can become less of a thrower and more of a pitcher. He needs to rein in the walks, even at the expense of fewer strikeouts, to reach his true potential.

[Hache Man]

Midpoint stats are half-truths
We are still a few weeks from the midpoint of the 2008 season, a time of year that's popular for assessing player futures. Everyone will be wondering which players will surge or fade.

In reality, the 81-game mark or the All-Star break are arbitrary delineators of performance swings. Always think back to Johan Santana in 2004. He had a 5.51 ERA before he turned his season around, posting a 1.35 ERA the rest of the way. That turning point was on June 9. There is nothing magical about July.

As such, there are several players for whom we can already project a change of fortunes.

Adrian Beltre is already on pace for his best power year since 2004, but his .225 batting average is a concern. The Seattle Mariners third baseman's peripherals are more optimistic, however, and point to the potential for big numbers over the rest of 2008.

Beltre's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is currently only .230, a full 70 points lower than his career average. That should correct itself over the rest of the season. His fly ball rate has edged up each month — 40%, 42%, 49% — which portends continued strong power output. Together, they point to solid overall numbers for the rest of 2008.

After Ryan Howard batted .313 in 2006, his batting average has been on a steep two-year decline to its current .224 level. His power remains elite, which is good news, but his peripherals point to his complete game coming together soon.

Howard may just be a slow starter; he was batting only .217 as late as June 4 last year. Like Beltre, his .260 BABIP is also significantly lower than his career average. His batting averages by month this season are .168, .238 and .281, so the improvement is already in progress. The next three-plus months could be explosive, as his two-homer game on Monday suggests.

Most pundits did not expect Carlos Pena to replicate his 2007 breakout performance. He opened 2008 with six home runs in the first two weeks, but then couldn't buy a hit for the next month. When a broken finger landed him on the disabled list earlier this month, he was on pace for about 10 fewer home runs than last year and was hitting .227.

However, he was starting to turn things around before going on the DL, batting .264 over his last three weeks. Pena's power could be just warming up; remember that he hit 29 homersafter July 1 last year.

Injuries have derailed 2008 thus far for several other batters. A healthy return could mean big numbers.

Rafael Furcal was batting .366 and was on a 20-20 pace when he was placed on the DL May 6. While he could return before the All Star break, back problems can linger. If he's healthy, his second half could be huge. Frank Thomas' perennial slow starts are well documented, but a strained quad tendon cut short his annual surge. He had been batting .353 since May 1 when he hit the DL. And you can't count out a strong stretch run from David Ortiz, because, well, he's David Ortiz.

Finally, a pair of speculations. Victor Martinez could be out well into August, which opens playing time for Kelly Shoppach. Shoppach has excellent power skills, and while he has played infrequently in the majors, he has hit consistently at a 25-homer full-season pace. He won't be a .300 hitter, but he could be productive.

And Scott Hairston has quietly hit nine homers, also on a 25-homer pace. However, his .231 batting average, his hyperextended elbow and the expected promotion of Chase Headley will likely have fantasy owners dropping him en masse. Still, he is intriguing from a pure skills perspective and could yield solid numbers if given the opportunity. As I said, a speculation.

[Hache Man]

Going Gangster
Jerry Manuel's first game as Mets manager became an eventful one Tuesday when Jose Reyes resisted when asked to leave after tweaking his hamstring. Reyes apologized for the modest act of insubordination afterward and returned to the lineup Wednesday by going 3-for-5 with a stolen base and three runs, but Manuel's amusing take on the situation is definitely worth passing along anyway.

Asked what exactly happened with Reyes, Manuel (seemingly) joked: "I told him next time he does that I'm going to get my blade out and cut him. I'm a gangster. You go gangster on me, I'm going to have to get you. You do that again, I'm going to cut you right on the field." Manuel then explained that he's "not here to make friends or for people to like me," which is good because the New York media isn't exactly known for its friend-making ability.

Whatever happens with Manuel and the Mets—my guess is that he probably finishes out the season with a winning record, yet still gets replaced—he's provided my early pick for Managerial Quote of the Year. There's still plenty of time for Ozzie Guillen to reclaim the top spot and Jim Leyland is always a good darkhorse pick, but for now at least the thought of Jerry "American Gangster" Manuel going after Reyes with a sharpened blade is the leader in the clubhouse.

While Manuel tries to change the laid-back image that he had while managing the White Sox to a .515 winning percentage from 1998-2003, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* As of this writing Carlos Zambrano has avoided the disabled list, but he's expected to miss his scheduled start Tuesday at the very least after leaving Wednesday's game with a sore shoulder. Zambrano is slated to undergo an MRI exam with a dye injection Friday, at which point the Cubs should have a better idea about his status. Rather than shifting veteran Jon Lieber from the bullpen to the rotation, the Cubs may choose to replace Zambrano with Sean Marshall.

Marshall logged over 100 innings with the Cubs in each of the past two seasons, but has spent much of this year at Triple-A. He has a 4.18 ERA and 21-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts there and the 25-year-old southpaw has a 4.81 ERA in 237.2 career big-league innings. Marshall projects as a solid mid-rotation starter long term, but a mediocre strikeout rate will keep him from having big-time fantasy value and he's unlikely to be an asset in the short term.

* It was only a matter of time once Eddie Guardado took over as the Rangers' primary setup man, and sure enough manager Ron Washington hinted following Thursday's game that C.J. Wilson is in danger of losing ninth-inning duties. Wilson blew a save Wednesday, but was asked to work Thursday for the third straight day anyway and retired just one of the four batters he faced before being yanked in favor of Jamey Wright (Guardado had already pitched a scoreless eighth inning).

At 37 years old and with his injury history Guardado is far from a sure thing to remain healthy and effective, but he's looked solid through 28 appearances, posting a 3.70 ERA and .202 opponent's batting average. Washington said Thursday that the Rangers "still have trust" in Wilson and he's converted 14-of-16 save chances, but a 5.04 ERA and lack of consistent command seemingly have the team considering a switch. For now, Guardado is a solid pickup in AL-only leagues.

* Continuing his season-long trend of going public with a plan only to change his mind days later, manager Lou Piniella announced Wednesday that Kosuke Fukudome will take over as the Cubs' primary leadoff man until Alfonso Soriano returns. Piniella initially said that Reed Johnson would lead off with Soriano out, but perhaps thought better of it after noticing Johnson's .325 career on-base percentage against right-handers, which includes a measly .292 mark this season.

Fukudome's power has been disappointing thus far, but he's done a fantastic job getting on base against all pitchers, posting a .413 OBP against righties and reaching at a .375 clip against lefties. He's homered just five times through 70 games, but has drawn 47 walks and is on track to score 105 runs, which is a pace that will rise if he remains atop the lineup. Meanwhile, with righty James Shields pitching Johnson was out of the lineup Thursday in favor of Micah Hoffpauir.

* Eric Gagne threw a bullpen session Thursday and reported no problems, saying afterward that he hopes to return from the disabled list on June 27. Gagne has been sidelined since May 21 with rotator cuff tendinitis and struggled prior to the DL stint, which is why manager Ned Yost revealed Thursday that Salomon Torres will remain the Brewers' closer even after Gagne returns. "Closing, setting up, third inning, I don't care," Gagne said. "I just want to compete, get back on the mound.

AL Quick Hits: Days after canning general manager Bill Bavasi, the Mariners fired manager John McLaren and replaced him Thursday with ex-Cubs skipper Jim Riggleman … Meanwhile, with rumors of his impending release swirling, Richie Sexson remains on the roster for now … Joba Chamberlain turned in his best start Thursday, allowing one run while racking up nine strikeouts over 5.2 innings … Rocco Baldelli went deep twice in a minor-league rehab game Wednesday at Single-A … Jason Bartlett was scratched from Thursday's lineup after fouling a ball off his foot during batting practice, giving Evan Longoria his first career start at shortstop … Mark Teahen went 3-for-4 with his seventh homer Thursday, matching his total from all of last season … Scott Feldman tossed seven innings of two-run ball in a no-decision Thursday, giving him a 4.33 ERA in 10 starts after spending the first five years of his career as a reliever … Jermaine Dye homered twice Thursday, including his seventh career grand slam … No. 1 overall pick Tim Beckham agreed to a quick deal Thursday, accepting a $6.15 million signing bonus from the Rays.

NL Quick Hits: Jay Bruce struck out three times Thursday before being ejected for arguing balls and strikes, and is now in a 7-for-42 (.167) slump … Dave Bush took a no-hitter into the eighth inning Thursday, but the Brewers' bullpen almost blew a seven-run lead before hanging on to win 8-7 … Despite going 9-for-21 (.429) to begin his minor-league rehab assignment, Dusty Baker said Wednesday that Jeff Keppinger (knee) isn't ready to return from the disabled list because "his legs are still sore" … Willy Tavares collected three hits and a stolen base Thursday, giving him a dozen steals in 16 games this month … Aaron Harang coughed up five runs on 10 hits Thursday to join Barry Zito and Joe Blanton as MLB's only 10-game losers, which is interesting given that all three pitchers began their careers with the A's … Kris Benson (shoulder) made his first rehab start Thursday at Single-A, serving up three homers in two innings … Russell Branyan homered again Thursday, giving him 10 long balls (and 24 strikeouts) in 20 games since being called up from Triple-A.

[Hache Man]

Extra value in leadoff spot
Over the last several years, the role of a leadoff man has evolved from the traditional scrappy, speedy guy who just tries to find some way to get on base to an instant offense igniter with home run power.

Alfonso Soriano, Jimmy Rollins and Hanley Ramirez are among those at the forefront of the speedsters with pop who have thrived in the leadoff spot. But lately, because of injuries or ineffectiveness, other teams have begun putting middle-of-the-order hitters — such as Hunter Pence, Alex Rios and Corey Hart— at the top of their lineup cards.

From a fantasy perspective, a five-category leadoff man can play a major role in building a championship team, partly because of the extra at-bats he'll accumulate.

Hitting leadoff most of the time, Rollins set a major league record with 716 at-bats last year. He ended up leading the league in runs, hitting 30 homers and stealing 41 bases on his way to winning the National League MVP award.

Many fantasy experts were quick to point out that three of last season's top five in dollar value in NL-only leagues just happened to be shortstops — Rollins, Ramirez and Jose Reyes. And while defensive position is important in assembling a roster, one of the major reasons they're such valuable fantasy performers is because they're also leadoff hitters.

Think it's just a fluke? Think again.

Of the top 10 American League hitters last season in 5x5 leagues, four of them were leadoff men: Ichiro Suzuki was third, Curtis Granderson sixth, Brian Roberts eighth and Grady Sizemore 10th.

This year it's more of the same, with Ian Kinsler and Jacoby Ellsbury joining Sizemore and Suzuki in the AL's top five.

In the NL, an injury has kept Rollins' numbers down, but Ramirez and Reyes are still producing. And one of the league's top breakout candidates, the Pittsburgh Pirates' Nate McLouth, is primarily a leadoff man.

But fantasy value isn't only about the extra at-bats. Some players simply perform better when batting leadoff, even though they're only guaranteed to hit first once a game.

Take Ramirez as an example. Last season, he batted leadoff about 75% of the time for the Florida Marlins and hit .345 with a slugging percentage of .596. When he batted anywhere else in the order, his batting average dropped nearly 50 points and his slugging percentage went down 140 points.

Still, the Marlins moved Ramirez out of the leadoff spot after a sizzling April in which he hit .333 with eight homers and 18 RBI. For three weeks as the team's No. 3 hitter, those numbers sunk to .268 with one home run and four RBI. Now that the experiment is over and Ramirez is back atop the order, he is back to his old tricks, including a pair of two-homer games this month.

Alfonso Soriano of the Chicago Cubs is another example of what I call the "leadoff liftoff phenomenon." Manager Lou Piniella has resisted any temptation to move Soriano out of the No. 1 spot this season. The numbers demonstrate why it isn't a difficult decision:

Leadoff
Year	Team	AB	H	Avg.	Slug.
2006	WAS	541	159	.294	.588
2007	CHC	542	167	.308	.579
2008	CHC	202	60	.297	.574
Non-leadoff
2006	WAS	106	20	.189	.415
2007	CHC	37	6	.162	.270
2008	CHC	10	0	.000	.000

However, the broken hand Soriano suffered last week has forced the Cubs to find a new leadoff man, opening up a prime spot in the NL's most potent offensive attack for the next six weeks. After Soriano's injury, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot and Reed Johnson all took turns atop the Cubs order. Piniella eventually settled on Kosuke Fukudome, who has a higher on-base percentage than any of the other three and, yes, more home-run power too.

Other leadoff men

One of the presumed drawbacks for leadoff hitters is the lack of RBI opportunities they get hitting with no one on base in the first inning and (in the NL) hitting behind the pitcher most of the rest of the time.

However, Rollins had 81 (of his 94) RBI last season as a leadoff man. Sizemore drove in 74 runs from the leadoff spot. Granderson had 71 leadoff RBI. Soriano, Suzuki, Johnny Damon and Ramirez all had more than 60 RBI hitting first in the order.

This season, nine leadoff men were on pace to drive in 70 runs or more. And that doesn't include Suzuki — or Granderson and Rollins, who've missed time with injuries.

The Texas Rangers' Kinsler is having a breakout year, leading the AL in runs and on pace to improve on his 20-homer and 23-steal performance last season.

Carlos Gomez of the Minnesota Twins struggled to get on base early in the season, but one thing he has continued to do all year long is run. And now that he's started to raise his average (he hit .299 in May and was up to .272 on the season through the weekend), his fantasy value is taking off as well.

McLouth has already surpassed his previous career high of 13 home runs in just under a half season. At the same time, he has cut down on his strikeout rate and is showing more patience at the plate. He also has stolen-base upside with only seven this season after going 22-for-23 a year ago.

The Washington Nationals' Cristian Guzman has cut his career strikeout rate in half this season. As a result, he's turned into a $20 fantasy player and hitting better than .340 as a leadoff man.

Damon of the New York Yankees has enjoyed a resurgence this season, flirting with career highs in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He's also picking up his stolen-base pace, already swiping as many bases this month than he did in all of May.

A knee injury to the Milwaukee Brewers' Rickie Weeks has elevated Corey Hart to the top of the order. In his first three games there, he hit three home runs and drove in seven runs. An extended stay there might translate into a 25-homer, 25-steal season.

In deeper leagues, the San Diego Padres' Jody Gerut is providing decent short-term value. Called up from the minors when Jim Edmonds was released, the left-handed-hitting Gerut has been platooning with Scott Hairston in center field. Over the last three weeks, he hit .377 with two homers, nine RBI, 12 runs and three stolen bases.

Even though the Padres promoted left-field prospect Chase Headley, Gerut should still play every day and lead off against right-handers.

Planning for next year

For those in keeper leagues, some leadoff men who haven't put up eye-popping numbers this season might make decent speculative acquisitions for next year.

If Granderson can learn to hit lefties, he has the speed and power to be in the same class as Rollins and Ramirez. If the Arizona Diamondbacks' Chris Young can make consistent contact and start stealing bases again, he can be a 30-30 threat. If the San Francisco Giants' Fred Lewis continues to get more consistent playing time, he can be a major fantasy asset.

The days of the one-dimensional speed burner at the top of the order appear to be going by the wayside. There will still be room for the likes of Michael Bourn, Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre, but major league teams — and fantasy owners — are asking for more.

[Hache Man]

Don't mess with the DeJesus

Chase Headley is the week's top waiver add, but he's already claimed in most leagues. Still, there are plenty of other options that makes solid additions to fantasy squads this week:

American League

1. Eddie Guardado – RP – TEX - C.J. Wilson hasn't exactly been dominant as the Rangers' closer – he's sitting on a 5.04 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Throw in a 23/16 K/B ratio, and you can see why Rangers manager Ron Washington said he is considering taking him out of the closing role on Thursday. If Wilson loses his job, Eddie Guardado would likely step in to the familiar closing role. Eddie has a 3.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, and while his 14 strikeouts to eight walks is hardly dominant, he's worth a speculative add for teams looking for saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

2. Jeremy Guthrie – SP – BAL - Guthrie has followed up an effective 2007 with a surprisingly strong start to 2008. He is currently sporting a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He's allowed more than three runs in just two starts, but due to brutal run support, his record is sitting at just 3-7. Since joining the Orioles prior to last season, Guthrie has posted a 3.63 ERA and 191/77 K/BB ratio. Still, he's owned in just one of every ten leagues. He's not a staff ace, but he's certainly been solid enough to be a quality addition to the back of fantasy rotations.
Recommendation: Should be owned in mixed leagues.

3. Mike Aviles – SS – KC - Mike Aviles is the latest Royal to take a spin on the carousel at shortstop, but he's been very effective since getting regular playing time in the first week of June. He had 10 homers in 241 Triple-A at-bats before getting called up, and the extra-base hits have continued to drop for him. He's currently hitting .321/.345/.642 on the season with three home runs in just 53 at-bats. He's proven himself to be the team's best option at short, so the 27-year-old should get plenty of playing time and could wind up having solid value if he keeps it up.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

4. David DeJesus – OF – KC - After seeing his average drop over 35 points to .260 last season, DeJesus is currently displaying a .305/.359/.465 line. This is largely due to the fact that he seems to have rediscovered how to hit left-handed pitching. He's been on a power tear for the last week, swatting three of his eight home runs and posting eight RBI. With just one more home run, DeJesus will match his career high, suggesting that the 28-year-old is finally having a breakout of sorts. Injury concerns, though, should temper expectations.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Jeff Clement – C – SEA - Members of the Mariners organization are dropping like flies, and Jeff Clement appears poised to benefit most. He struggled mightily in his first stint with the team this season, and was demoted at the end of May. After getting demoted, he hit .287 with nine homers, nine doubles, 23 RBI and a .670 slugging percentage in 24 games at Triple-A. It's been declared that Clement will see the majority of playing time behind the plate for Seattle, and he could excel with some regular playing time. He makes a solid AL-only option, and could prove to have value in mixed leagues if he takes to the majors better in his second stint of 2008.
Recommendation: Worth watching in mixed leagues, grab in AL-only leagues.

6. Joel Zumaya – RP – DET - After allowing one run in seven minor league innings, Joel Zumaya is expected to join the Tigers on Friday. He's been pegged as the closer of the future for Detroit, but for now he remains stuck squarely behind Todd Jones. Still, as long as he can stay healthy, he should provide solid peripheral numbers, and likely tally plenty of holds for players that value the stat.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

7. Kyle Davies – SP – KC: In four starts for the Royals so far this year, Kyle Davies is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA. That number is likely to increase. His K/BB ratio is 12/12, leaving him with a 1.42 WHIP. He's managed to cut down on homers, but that walk rate is still incredibly dangerous. Davies is just 24, so it's possible that he'll register significant improvement on his career 5.86 ERA this season, but it's probably best to avoid him until he shows he can limit his walks. Until then, he's a time bomb waiting to go off.
Recommendation: Monitor in mixed leagues.

8. Gregg Zaun – C – TOR - In three games since coming off the disabled list, Greg Zaun has gone 3-for-8 with two homers, four runs and five RBI. He appeared poised to lose playing time to Rod Barajas while he was injured, but Barajas has since cooled down and Zaun has clearly gotten off to a fast start. If he can hold onto the starting job, he'll make a fine option in AL-only leagues.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in AL-only leagues.

National League

1. Chase Headley – 3B – SD Headley was covered here a couple weeks ago, but he was finally called up this week and has quickly been added in almost all leagues. He's been able to hit for solid average in the minor leagues, and in the last couple years has added power to his repertoire. If he can maintain that power in the majors, he could be one of the better third basement in the league. Don't miss out on the potential of that happening.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

2. Manny Parra – SP – MIL - Over his last seven starts, Manny Parra has allowed more than one run on just two occasions. Both of those starts were on the road. At home, he's been dominant, sporting a 2.90 ERA and a .234 average against so far this season. His next start comes at home, and teams with deeper lineups might consider stashing him and using him when he's playing in Milwaukee.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

3. Dave Bush – SP – MIL - Dave Bush is 2-7 with a 5.21 ERA so far this season. Most of that is the result of an 0-5 record and 8.10 ERA on the road. Just like Manny Parra, Bush has been solid at home, posting a 3.62 ERA and limiting batters to a .264 average against him. Both of his next two starts are on the road, but he's worth holding onto after that and using whenever he's slated to pitch at home. His next home start is against the Pirates.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

4. Russell Branyan – 3B – MIL - In 62 at-bats this season, Russell Branyan has 24 strikeouts. He also has 10 homers. Thanks partially to the massive power display, he's hitting .305, which isn't likely to last. Still, the Brewers will likely stick with him as long as he's this hot, and fantasy teams looking for homers should enjoy the ride. His average will likely end up heading back toward his .231 career total, and he won't continue hitting homers at twice his career rate. Still, for now, it's worth enjoying the ride.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in mixed leagues.

5. Jose Bautista – 3B – PIT - Bautista finished April with a paltry .556 OPS, but thanks to one hot week in April and one hot week in May, he's raised that number above .750. In his last 121 at-bats, he's hitting .298 with six homers and 21 RBI. While most of those numbers are the product of two very hot weeks, it's worth seeing if he can now establish some consistency now that he's back to being a regular part of Pittsburgh's lineup.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues.

6. John Bowker – 1B – SF - John Bowker was terrible in April, hitting just .193. He improved to .297 in May, and is now hitting .313 in June. He has also hit 7 homers and notched 28 RBI in just 169 at-bats this season. He's just 24, so there are bound to be growing pains along the way, but he did hit 22 homers in 522 Double-A at-bats last season. Expect him to hit about .265 over the rest of the season, but clearly he has the power potential to help NL-only teams.
Recommendation: Worth consideration in NL-only leagues.

7. Charlie Morton – SP – ATL - Morton was effective in his first start against the Angels, but struggled against the Rangers, who have scored the most runs in baseball, thanks largely to issuing four walks. Morton had a 2.05 ERA with a 72/27 K/BB ratio in Triple-A this season, a significant improvement on his previous minor league numbers, largely due to improved control. Despite the poor outing against Texas, it's worth gambling that Morton will be able to demonstrate this improved control in the majors. His third start against Milwaukee should provide a decent gauge of his abilities. atlantabraves.com
Recommendation: Worth a flier in NL-only leagues.

8. Trot Nixon – OF – NYM - After coming over from the Diamondbacks, Nixon figures to play against right-handed pitchers for the Mets. Unfortunately, he's been mediocre against righties for the past couple years, and that doesn't figure to change much in New York. Still he's worth monitoring, just in case. newyorkmets.com
Recommendation: Worth watching in NL-only leagues.

[Hache Man]

Tulo and J. Upton Not All That
Tulo back, Pronk staying out, Bush's almost and more in this week's Week That Was.

Troy Tulowitzki: Colorado activated Troy Tulowitzki from DL this week. Good news for Tulo owners? Answer – that depends on their savvy. If you are a Tulo owner and you expect his all-star performance from last year to catapult you in the second half, then this is not good news, it is just an invitation to heartbreak. On the other hand, if you are savvy enough to wait for a few good games and deal Tulo (assuming it is not a keeper league), Tulo's return could pay some dividends. He was a great story last year, coming out of nowhere to hit .290 with 24 HR. However, he had never played at AAA and had not hit near 24 HR in his two years at A and AA combined. Thus, while no one thought he would be miles away from the Mendoza line at .148 or so, it was just not realistic to expect another great campaign this year. Sell at the first offensive blip.

Aramis Ramirez: Aramis Ramirez had a huge day Friday in the battle for bragging rights in the windy city. The Cubbies 3B's second dinger of the game was a dramatic walkoff winner. Once again, Aramis is putting up a solid campaign. Now, in the middle of June, he has 12 HR with 47 RBI and a .290+ average. While he does not get the press of ARod, David Wright or erstwhile 3B Miguel Cabrera, Aramis has been solid year in and year out. His three year average numbers are strong -- .301, 32, 104. Call the Aramis owner in your league, talk about nagging injuries and grab a guy who can be frustrating at times but who gets the job done and done well.

Travis Hafner: The bad news is that Travis Hafner was doing so poorly, he went to see Dr. James Andrews. The good news is that Andrews did not recommend surgery. So, Hafner will continue to rehab his shoulder. The bad news is that there is no Dr. Rudy Wells to rebuild him (translation – 6 Million Dollar man doc). Maybe Pronk comes back this year, but the odds of him producing strong numbers are very, very low. Injured this year, poor year last year, team struggling – none of these are signs of success to come in the near future. If you own Pronk, hold him, hope he comes back and has a couple of good games and then sell. If you don't own him, keep it that way.

Alex Cintron: According to reports, Alex Cintron will be playing more and Freddie Bynum less. Hmmmm, it is about time. Last night, Bynum posted an ugly 0-5 to lower his average even further below the Mendoza line. Cintron, on the other hand, is hitting .342. Will Alex continue to hit anywhere near there? Answer, no. Leaving out the .300+ average from 2003 in Arizona and the injury marred year last year, Cintron has shown himself to be a .265-.280 type. It is not unreasonable to expect that type of decent backup MI numbers this year. Buy if reasonably priced.

Jorge De La Rosa: Jorge De La Rosa struck out ten in beating the Indians this week. Yes, he was facing a team without Pronk or VMart, but 10K is still 10K. In fact, over the last two starts, Jorge has 18 strikeouts. Do I think he will continue like this over the long term? No. Can he put up another solid start against the offensively challenged Royals next week? Oh yes. Short term buy.

Sean Gallagher: Sean Gallagher pitched six strong innings in his latest start, and has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. Was there reason to believe Gallagher would succeed in the bigs? Yes -- before coming up to the big club, Gallagher averaged more than a strikeout per inning in AAA along with a WHIP barely over 1.00. Add that to the fact that the Cubs can hit and have a strong pen, and you have a prescription for pitching success. Full disclosure – in my home league, the "Mercer Street League" named after the street we lived on in law school back in the dark ages, I own Gallagher and therefore have a vested interest in his performing. On the other hand, I keep Sean in the lineup as I try to climb the standings, so obviously, I am a believer. (Allow me one inside joke here: As long as the "Doo" does not win Mercer Street, I am happy). Ok, back to real work now.

Justin Upton: Flashing some spark for the first time in a while, Justin Upton went yard Thursday in a win over Oakland. In his last 7 games, Upton is just 3-19 with only that one RBI. Overall, Upton is under .250. Is he a great talent? Sure. Will he be great in roto this year? No. At just 20 years old, and with no AAA time, it was just too much to expect a huge year this year. What to do? If you own Upton in a keeper league, do just that – keep. If you have him in a one year league, keep him if you can afford an average in the .230-.240 range. If you cannot, move him after his next dinger.

Dave Bush: Dave Bush took a no-no into the eighth against the Jays Thursday. Forget the fact that the Brewer pen was awful after Bush left. Bush was great, tossing eight innings, allowing just two hits and one walk. In fact, he has posted 4 quality starts in his last five and lowered his WHIP to a very respectable 1.27. Will Bush be a lights out star? No. He does not strikeout nearly enough hitters. Can he be a solid end of the rotation guy? Yes. In deep leagues, he is worth a look.

Russell Branyan: Russell Branyan continues his remarkable run. Thursday, he blasted dinger number 10 in the win against the Jays. Let me state the obvious here – it will not last (unless of course, Branyan has some ability to conjure up the magic of Tattoo and Mr. Rourke, but I digress). Branyan still strikes out all the time and has hit over .250 only one time in parts of his ten big league seasons. I would not be surprised if he hits .220 the rest of the way. The ultimate and quintessential sell high candidate. Do it.

Aaron Harang: Aaron Harang was bad again on Thursday, giving up 5 runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings to register his 10th loss. Yes, 10! My advice – BUY! First, Harang is too good to keep going this way. Second, he was going on too much rest in his last start. Before that, he shut down the Red Sox over seven sparkling innings. Thus far this year, Harang has an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.34. By years end, he will be closer to his three year averages of 3.78 and 1.23. Thus, he will be very good over the last half. BUY.

And finally, this just in -- Schultz Says: "For some, this is the time of the 2008 season when thoughts turn from the glories and wonders of the present to the untapped potential for great success in the 2009 season. That's a nice way of saying, it's late June and the 11th place team is starting to think about dumping for next year. Even the best laid plans of mice and men, especially when they include heavy investments in Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, don't always work out. If you read the roto-columns, roto-wire and other roto-sheets, you will be bombarded with prospects loaded with talent whose upside will be touted in an abundance of glowing praise. When dumping, these are NOT the guys to target. Even though you aren't looking for a quick fix, many of these prospects are a couple of years, not months away from being fantasy studs. If you're in an auction league, scan the rosters for solid, proven players that are drastically undervalued by your league. In many leagues Albert Pujols went cheaper than he should have because of the pre-season fears over his elbow. In thinking of 2009, isn't an undervalued Pujols a better investment than the cheapest Stephen Pearces, Carlos Gonzalezes, Homer Baileys, etc.? Don't worry class, we'll be discussing this topic more in the coming weeks.

For teams on the other side of this equation - the ones with Biff Tanner's Sports Almanac - try to learn something from the Mets' mistakes when trying to improve for the stretch run to your title. Last September's collapse of the New York Mets was a gift to those who take great pleasure in schadenfreude. Even the least observant fan could tell you that it was the Mets' bullpen that killed them when they needed them most. So what does Omar Minaya do? Instead of spending the winter overhauling, repairing or even addressing the bullpen that cost his team the playoffs, he spends his team's future on Johan Santana, an elite pitcher who despite being one the best starters in baseball, doesn't fix any of the Mets' real problems. Of course, Willie Randolph had to be let go because Omar Minaya failed in his duties.

How is this relevant? Before raping and pillaging the unfortunate in your league, figure out first what you need. If you are doing well in WHIP and ERA, but need strikeouts maybe this isn't the time to bite on the guy dangling Roy Halladay in your face. If you need stats in the power categories, Ichiro may not be the guy for you. This seems simple but you would be amazed at how often owners miss the big picture when big names are available. Right, Omar?"

Response: Leaving schadenfreude out of this (whoever he is), I think I will pick up where Schultz left off. Specifically, though I am tempted to rant and rave at the cowardly way in which Omar Minaya executed the firing of Willie Randolph (not the fact of the firing as I do not think that Willie was getting the job done), and to point out the obvious lack of class exhibited, I rather remind you all of this – it is Omar Minaya that built a team dependent on the health of Moises Alou and the prayer that Luis Castillo's bum knees were worth a four year deal. Oh yeah, and it is also Omar Minaya that pulled off one of the truly awful trades in recent memory – giving up Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore AND Brandon Phillips in order to borrow Bartolo Colon for a couple of months and doom the Expos/Nationals franchise in the process. Ok, rant over. atlantabraves.com

[Hache Man]

Laffey all the way to the bank

After a long afternoon of watching my tender White Sox get pummeled by the Cubs, I'm about ready to move onto the next week of baseball. Let's jump in:
Two-Start Pitchers

American League
Jeremy Guthrie - @CHC (Undecided), @WAS (Jason Bergmann)
Josh Beckett – ARI (Dan Haren), @HOU (Brian Moehler)
Mark Buehrle - @LAD (Derek Lowe), CHC (Undecided)
Aaron Laffey – SF (Jonathan Sanchez), CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Kenny Rogers – STL (Braden Looper), COL (Jeff Francis)
Brian Bannister – COL (Jeff Francis), STL (Braden Looper)
John Lackey - @WAS (Jason Bergmann), @LAD (Derek Lowe)
Kevin Slowey - @SD (Jake Peavy), MIL (Ben Sheets)
Darrell Rasner - @PIT (Tom Gorzelanny), @NYM (Oliver Perez)
Joe Blanton – PHI (Jamie Moyer), SF (Jonathan Sanchez)
Felix Hernandez - @NYM (Johan Santana), @SD (Jake Peavy)
Andy Sonnanstine - @FLA (Scott Olsen), @PIT (Tom Gorzelanny)
Eric Hurley - @HOU (Brian Moehler), PHI (Jamie Moyer)
Shaun Marcum – CIN (Bronson Arroyo), ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes)

National League
Dan Haren - @BOS (Josh Beckett), @FLA (Scott Olsen)
Jo-Jo Reyes – MIL (Ben Sheets), @TOR (Shaun Marcum)
Bronson Arroyo - @TOR (Shaun Marcum), @CLE (Aaron Laffey)
Jeff Francis - @KC (Brian Bannister), @DET (Kenny Rogers)
Scott Olsen – TB (Andy Sonnanstine), ARI (Dan Haren)
Brian Moehler – TEX (Eric Hurley), BOS (Josh Beckett)
Derek Lowe – CHW (Mark Buehrle), LAA (John Lackey)
Ben Sheets - @ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes), @MIN (Kevin Slowey)
Johan Santana – SEA (Felix Hernandez), NYY (Undecided)
Oliver Perez – SEA (R.A. Dickey), NYY (Darrell Rasner)
Tom Gorzelanny – NYY (Darrell Rasner), TB (Andy Sonnanstine)
Jake Peavy – MIN (Kevin Slowey), SEA (Felix Hernandez)
Jonathan Sanchez - @CLE (Aaron Laffey), @OAK (Joe Blanton)
Braden Looper - @DET (Kenny Rogers), @KC (Brian Bannister)
Jason Bergmann – LAA (John Lackey), BAL (Jeremy Guthrie)

Possible Streamers

The following pitchers are available in a majority of mixed leagues and might be worth using in one or both of their starts this week.

Sunday, 6/29 – Jeremy Guthrie @WAS – Guthrie has continued to pitch well in 2008, as he's sporting a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, but his lack of run support has left him with a poor record. Facing Washington, the worst offense in baseball, should give him a fighting chance.

Tuesday, 6/24 – Mark Buehrle @LAD - Buehrle has been solid in June, posting a 2.10 ERA, and the Dodgers offense hasn't been much of a powerhouse so far this season. That Buehrle gets to face the pitcher can only help.

Tuesday, 6/24 – Aaron Laffey vs. SF - Laffey and his 2.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP will face the Giants at home – where his ERA is significantly better (1.40). The Giants offense isn't much of a threat, and Laffey should have a solid game. A second start against Cincinnati next week makes him a fine weekly play.

Tuesday, 6/24 – Jon Garland @WAS - Garland has turned it on of late, posting a 2.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the past month. Facing the Nationals' league-worst offense (and their pitcher), should only help.

Tuesday, 6/24 - Kevin Slowey @ SD - Due to the number of homers he gives up, Slowey is someone who has to be played against the right team. Pitching against the Padres in San Diego is a fine time to use him.

Thursday, 6/26 – Scott Baker @ SD - Baker is barely owned in fantasy leagues, but he's got a 3.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP so far this season. Facing the Padres should help him maintain those numbers, if not better them.

National League

Monday, 6/23 - Jeff Francis @ KC - Francis has been plagued by inconsistency this season, but a match-up against the Royals should prove advantageous. KC has the worst offense in the AL.

Tuesday, 6/24 – Oliver Perez vs. SEA - Perez is so brutally inconsistent that owners should think long and hard against using him here. Still, I have to point him out because he's allowed just two runs in his last 12 1/3 innings.

Saturday, 6/28 – Randy Wolf vs. SEA - Wolf is coming off a tough start (this was posted before his weekend start), but he's been effective so far this season, posting a 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Pitching against the Mariners at Petco should help him – he has a 2.46 ERA at home.

Total Games

American League

7: Yankees
6: Everyone else in the American League plays six games this week.

National League
7: Mets
6: Everyone else in the National League plays six games this week.


Righty vs. Lefty Match-ups

American League
Baltimore - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Boston - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Chicago White Sox - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Cleveland - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Detroit - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Kansas City - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Angels - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Minnesota - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
New York Yankees – 2 vs. Righties, 5 vs. Lefties
Oakland - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Seattle - 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Tampa Bay – 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
Texas - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Toronto - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Red Sox face three lefties this week, which could be a decent boost for Coco Crisp, who is hitting .286 off them this year. Mike Lowell is hitting .306 off lefties, Jason Varitek is hitting .293 and Julio Lugo is hitting .300 off them. Dustin Pedroia is hitting .303 off southpaws. Kevin Youkilis, though, has the biggest split, he's hitting .394 of lefties. Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting just .245 off them, though.

The Yankees face five left-handed pitchers, which is good news for Bobby Abreu (.318 vs. LHP), Jeremy Giambi (.283 vs. LHP), Hideki Matsui (.346 vs. LHP), and Jorge Posada (.350 vs. LHP). In other words, it should be a good week for the Yankees, even though Melky Cabrera (.200 vs. LHP) could struggle.

The Mariners face three lefties, which is good for Adrian Beltre (.358 vs. LHP), Yuniesky Betancourt (.314 vs. LHP), Jose Lopez (.333 vs. LHP), and Richie Sexson (.364 vs LHP), assuming he gets through the entire week without being released. Kenji Johjima is hitting just .128 off lefties.

The Rays face four lefties. Jason Bartlett is hitting .306 off them so far this year, and Akinori Iwamura is hitting .288 off them. Evan Longoria is hitting just .189 off lefties.

National League:
Arizona - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Atlanta - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Chicago Cubs - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Cincinnati - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Colorado - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Florida - 6 vs. Righties, 0 vs. Lefties
Houston - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers – 3 vs. Righties, 3 vs. Lefties
Milwaukee - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
New York Mets - 5 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Philadelphia - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
Pittsburgh - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
San Diego - 4 vs. Righties, 2 vs. Lefties
San Francisco - 2 vs. Righties, 4 vs. Lefties
St. Louis - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties
Washington - 5 vs. Righties, 1 vs. Lefties

Notes:

The Dodgers face three lefties, which is good news for Blake DeWitt (.298 vs. LHP), Matt Kemp (.324 vs. LHP), and Juan Pierre (.419 vs. LHP). It's bad news for Andre Eithier (.173 vs. LHP) and Russell Martin (.230 vs. LHP), but it could mean a couple extra games for Andy LaRoche.

The Giants face four left-handed pitchers, which could hurt John Bowker (.118 vs. LHP) and Fred Lewis (.200 vs. LHP). Aaron Rowand (.397 vs. LHP) stands to benefit.

The Injury Bug

For the latest on injuries, check out Rotoworld's handy Injury Page.

Kelvim Escobar – SP – Shoulder – Return July, could be as reliever
Frank Thomas – DH – Quadriceps – Return early July
Aaron Hill – 2B – Head – Out indefinitely
Chipper Jones – 3B – Quad – Day-to-day
Mark Kotsay – OF – Back – Out indefinitely
Rickie Weeks – 2B – knee – Return late June
Eric Gagne – RP – Shoulder – Return June 27
Albert Pujols – 1B – Calf – Return early July
Adam Wainwright – SP – Finger – Out indefinitely
Chris Carpenter – SP – Elbow – Return by August?
Carlos Zambrano – SP – Shoulder – Return early July
Alfonso Soriano – OF – Hand – Return late June
Eric Byrnes – OF – Hamstring – Could return Monday
Rafael Furcal – SS- Back – Return mid-July
Brad Penny – SP – Shoulder – Return July
Victor Martinez – C – Elbow – Out indefinitely
Jake Westbrook – SP – Elbow – Out for season
Travis Hafner – DH – Shoulder- Return late June
Fausto Carmona – SP – Hip – Return late June
J.J. Putz – RP –Elbow – Out indefinitely
Brandon Morrow – RP – Back – Day-today
Moises Alou – OF – Calf – Return early July
Ryan Church – OF – Concussion – Out indefinitely
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B – Shoulder- Out indefinitely
Chris Young – SP – Face – Out indefinitely
Tadahito Iguchi – 2B – shoulder – Return mid-July
Chad Cordero – RP – Shoulder – Return early July
Carlos Pena – 1B – finger – Return late June
David Ortiz – DH – Wrist – Return mid-July

Waiver Wired

For this week's top waiver adds, read my opinion in this week's Waiver Wired.

AL

1. Eddie Guardado
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Mike Aviles
4. David DeJesus
5. Jeff Clement

NL

1. Chase Headley
2. Manny Parra
3. Dave Bush
4. Russell Branyan
5. Jose Bautista

[Hache Man]

AL Closers of the Future
This week's columns will look at each team's closing situation for 2009 and beyond. Basically, I'll throw out a bunch of names and try to guess which ones will stick. There's no more volatile role in the majors, so don't expect a high rate of success here. Still, there are too many potential fantasy bargains out there not to try.

Found after each team's writeup is my listing of which pitchers have the best chance of leading the team in saves in 2009, 2010 and 2011, ranked in order.

The American League is up first.


American League Closers

Baltimore - The Orioles were supposed to be set at closer for several years after Chris Ray came up and saved 33 games in his first full season in 2006, but a rough start in 2007 was followed up by Tommy John surgery. Expectations are that he will make it back before the end of this season, but there are no longer any guarantees for him going forward.

What does make it more likely that Ray will have the job in 2009 is that fill-in closer George Sherrill figures to be highly sought after at the deadline. Sherrill is under control through 2011, so the Orioles could look at him as a building block. However, the team would be foolish not to cash in the 31-year-old if it'd get them two very good prospects in return, especially since the team has long-term alternatives other than Ray.

Possessing one of the best arms in the organization, Radhames Liz is currently holding his own in the Orioles' rotation. However, many believe the bullpen will be his ultimate destination. His mid-90s fastball and curveball are obvious plus pitches and his changeup occasionally shows potential, but he lacks command and may never be able to work deep into games. He could legitimately overtake Ray in the Orioles' plans if a permanent switch to relief comes.

Jim Johnson never showed much upside as a starter, but he's been a nice setup man for the Orioles this season. He'd be the favorite to close during the final two months if Sherrill is traded. Long shots to someday close include Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen and top prospects Brandon Erbe and Chris Tillman. Loewen has been shifted to the pen for the rest of 2008, but it's probably just a one-year move. I could see Tillman getting hurt and eventually emerging as a closer, but that's certainly not what the Orioles are looking for from him. Rule-5 pick Randor Bierd, hard-throwing right-hander Bob McCrory, James Hoey and Kam Mickolio all look more like possible setup men than closers. Hoey will miss the rest of the season after shoulder surgery. Finally, I have to mention ex-Indians reliever Fernando Cabrera. He's quite a long shot at this point, but the stuff is still there if he can harness it.

2009: Ray, Sherrill, Johnson, Liz
2010: Ray, Liz, Johnson, McCrory
2011: Liz, Ray, Tillman, McCrory


Boston - Jonathan Papelbon's three starts from his rookie season will probably go down as the only ones of his career. The Red Sox control him through 2011 and hope to have him closing long into the future. If things fail to work out, there should always be fallbacks. Manny Delcarmen appears poised to overtake Hideki Okajima as the No. 2 man in Boston's pen before the end of this season, and Craig Hansen has shown flashes of potential, though command of his 94-mph fastball and sometimes excellent slider remains a problem.

In the minors, the Red Sox have 2006 first-round pick Daniel Bard looking like a potential closer. The hope was that he'd make it as a starter after he came out of North Carolina, but he had a true meltdown last year, walking 78 in 75 innings, and it's likely that he's in the bullpen for good since he still lacks quality second and third pitches to go along with his high-90s fastball.

Justin Masterson has answered questions about his ability to stay in the rotation with his performance this year, but the Red Sox are so deep that it's always possible he could go to the pen and close should Papelbon suffer a long-term injury.

2009: Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima, Hansen
2010: Papelbon, Delcarmen, Bard, Hansen
2011: Papelbon, Bard, Delcarmen, Hansen


Chicago - The White Sox have been hesitant to discuss a long-term deal with Bobby Jenks given his history of arm problems and off-field troubles, but they might relent and give him some security over the winter. Even if they still want to go year to year, they'll control his rights through 2011, his age-30 season.

No one else in the organization is more than a fallback. Octavio Dotel would likely get the nod over Scott Linebrink to take over if Jenks were to get hurt this season. Another hurler with closing experience is Mike MacDougal, but he's currently in Triple-A trying to work his way back. The White Sox would surely dump his contract if the option presented itself. Nick Masset failed to win a rotation spot in spring training, but he has done a fair job in middle relief. He has the arm to ascend to a late-game role someday. Adam Russell is the poor man's Masset. Lucas Harrell hasn't been able to stay healthy as a starter and may need a move to the pen. 2006 second-round pick Matt Long hasn't developed as hoped and doesn't currently project as a major league reliever.

2009: Jenks, Dotel, Linebrink, Masset
2010: Jenks, Masset, Russell, Linebrink
2011: Jenks, Masset, Harrell, Russell


Cleveland - Joe Borowski's career is winding down and Rafael Betancourt has taken a huge step back this season, leaving Cleveland's closing situation for 2009 and beyond completely up in the air. Betancourt could bounce back and enter next year as the favorite for saves, but the truth is that the Indians have always preferred him in a setup role. In fact, if they were to stick with their internal options, Masa Kobayashi would be the top candidate to close next season. The 34-year-old import has a 3.03 ERA through 36 major league appearances. Rafael Perez might be able to do the job as well, but he hasn't been as good against righties this year as he was as a rookie. Besides, it's the rare lefty that's handed a closer's role. Like Betancourt and Perez, Jensen Lewis has regressed this season. In fact, he's back in Triple-A at the moment. He should be a nice long-term reliever, but he's probably more of a setup man.

Of the pitchers currently in the organization, top prospect Adam Miller seems like the best bet to be picking up saves in 2011. The Indians are still hoping the 23-year-old fulfills his potential and emerges as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he missed time in 2007 with elbow woes and it doesn't look like he'll make it back this year after finger surgery last month. If things don't turn around for him next year, a permanent move to the pen could follow.

2009: (Free agent), Kobayashi, Betancourt, Lewis
2010: (Free agent), Kobayashi, Lewis, Betancourt
2011: (Free agent), Miller, Lewis, Perez


Detroit - The Tigers were all set to turn the closer's role to Joel Zumaya this year, but a shoulder injury sustained while moving a box over the winter forced them to change their plans and bring back Todd Jones for another season. Fortunately, Zumaya has regained his velocity after surgery and still appears to be a good bet for saves in 2009. He might even get the job in the second half of this year.

If Zumaya does battle more arm problems at some point, the Tigers will want more insurance than just Fernando Rodney, who has had his own share of shoulder troubles of late. With his above average fastball and outstanding change, Rodney would seem to have the stuff to close. However, he's already 31 and he's sporting a career ERA of 4.334. It'd be for the best if remained a seventh- or eighth-inning guy.

2008 first-round pick Ryan Perry might soon be the second man in the Detroit pen. The Arizona product can touch 98 mph with his fastball and has an occasionally excellent, though still inconsistent, slider. The Tigers could try grooming him as a starter, but he'd be a candidate to reach the majors much earlier as a reliever. Other potential long-term relievers include Freddy Dolsi and Luis Marte. Dolsi has jumped from Single-A to the majors this season and is looking like a nifty setup man. Marte was viewed as a relief prospect going into the season, but he's emerged as a fine SP prospect while posting a 2.36 ERA for two A-ball teams.

2009: Zumaya, Rodney, Dolsi, Perry
2010: Zumaya, Perry, Rodney, Dolsi
2011: Zumaya, Perry, Dolsi, Marte



Kansas City - Joakim Soria has the arsenal to be a successful big-league starter, but he's been so effective as a closer that it appears unlikely that he'll be moved to the rotation at any time during his Royals career. The 24-year-old has a 1.41 ERA this season, and he's at 2.14 with a 0.90 WHIP in 101 innings since debuting as a Rule-5 pick last season. He seems like a fine bet to stay healthy with his workload restricted, and even pitching for a bad team, he's one of the best bets among AL closers going forward.

Held in reserve by the Royals are Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez. Nunez might yet be given another look as a starter after showing an improved changeup last year. Ramirez, a late spring pickup from the Rockies, has fanned 38 in 34 innings of relief this season. Assuming that he's left in the pen, Nunez would be the better bet of the two going forward.

Prospects with closing potential include Carlos Rosa and Julio Pimentel. Rosa made a lot of progress as a starter in the minors this season, but was recently added to Kansas City's bullpen with the team looking for a spark. If he can stay healthy, he could have a future as a third or fourth starter. The Royals should be grooming him for the rotation since they plan on leaving Soria in the pen. Pimentel is currently 3-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 15 starts for Double-A Northwest Arkansas. The former Dodgers prospect has always projected best as a reliever and could be tried out of the bullpen later this season.

2009: Soria, Nunez, Ramirez, Rosa
2010: Soria, Nunez, Pimentel, Ramirez
2011: Soria, Nunez, Pimentel, Rosa


Los Angeles - Francisco Rodriguez had his worst ERA, batting-average against and walk rate in his years as a closer last season, but he's putting together a great 2008 so far, even if his strikeout rate has dropped sharply. Of course, K-Rod was so dominant when it came to strikeouts that even a sharp drop leaves him with a strong rate. He's fanned 30 in 32 innings so far this season. That's after four straight years in which he struck out at least 12 batters per nine innings. At his career rate, he'd have 43 strikeouts right now.

After failing to lock him up going into his walk year, the Angels will have to decide this winter whether to give Rodriguez the biggest contract ever for a reliever. If they don't, someone else surely will. $70 million for five years could be within reach. The Angels have the money to keep him, and I'm guessing that they will. However, it's not a given.

If K-Rod gets away, it seems safe to assume that the Angels will pursue Brad Lidge or Brian Fuentes. They do have Scot Shields and Justin Speier making a combined $10 million per year for 2009 and 2010, but both appear to be moving past their primes. The superior internal options are youngsters Jose Arredondo and Stephen Marek. Arredondo's maturity has come into question, but he's excelled since making his major league debut last month. Marek, who was a fine prospect as a starter before moving to the pen this spring, has even better raw stuff and has been dominant in Double-A lately.

The real wild card is Kelvim Escobar. If the Angels don't think he'll be able to keep it together as a starting pitcher next year after missing at least the first half of this season with a torn rotator cuff, then he would make more sense than any of the internal options as a one-year replacement for K-Rod. He hasn't been a full-time closer since 2002, but he did look dominant out of the pen for a time with the Angels in 2005.

2009: Rodriguez, Escobar, Shields, Arredondo
2010: Rodriguez, Marek, Arredondo, Shields
2011: Rodriguez, Marek, Arredondo, Shields


Minnesota - The small-market Twins anted up and gave Joe Nathan a three-year, $41 million extension in March, taking him through 2011. He'll be 36 when the contract expires, but given his relatively light workload during his 20s, he seems like a pretty good bet to last. Whether it was the right thing for the Twins to tie up 15-20 percent of their payroll on a guy who will pitch five percent of the team's innings is another matter.

Since Juan Rincon lost his stuff and Pat Neshek underwent Tommy John surgery last month, the Twins lack quality setup men at the moment. Jesse Crain is being asked to take over eighth-inning duties and has been steadily improving as he becomes further removed from shoulder surgery. Neshek should return in the first half of next year and could reestablish himself as the primary setup man. The best bet of the Twins' prospects to develop into a quality short reliever is Jeff Manship, who just made his Double-A debut on Thursday after going 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA for Single-A Fort Myers. He has a chance to make it as a starter, but with his curveball, he might thrive as a short reliever.

2009: Nathan, Crain, Neshek, Matt Guerrier
2010: Nathan, Crain, Neshek, Manship
2011: Nathan, Crain, Neshek, Manship


New York - It used to look like the Yankees would make a big-time run at K-Rod this winter as a replacement for the aging Mariano Rivera, but that's an unlikely scenario now. Even the Yankees would have a hard time spending $30 million per year on a pair of relievers. Rivera was given a three-year, $45 million contract last winter, and it appears likely that he'll still be closing in 2010 at age 40. Whether he keeps going after that is anyone's guess. He used to talk about retirement at least a couple of times per year, but whereas it once seemed that he'd be willing to call it quits while still a dominant reliever, it now looks like he's going to pitch as long as his arm will let him.

The Yankees are currently without a clear No. 2 reliever after moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation. If Rivera happened to suffer a devastating arm injury, there's the possibility that they'd move Chamberlain into the closer's role. However, the possibility lessens with every strong outing from the 22-year-old. Besides, Rivera has missed more than a couple of weeks once in his career, that in 2002.

By the time 2009 rolls around, the Yankees will probably have more options in the setup role. There's a good chance they'll bring in a quality free agent, perhaps Brian Fuentes or Brandon Lyon. They'll also have younger relievers ready to step up. Older prospects Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez are both currently limiting hitters to .200 averages in the majors, and Jonathan Albaladejo impressed initially before losing his velocity to an elbow ailment. In the minors are Mark Melancon, Alan Horne, J.B. Cox, David Robertson, Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan. Melancon is the popular choice to develop into a future closer, but I think Horne might have more upside as a short reliever if he doesn't last as a starter. Robertson is a definite sleeper. He has a 1.53 ERA between Double- and Triple-A this season, and his slider should be a strikeout pitch in the majors.

2009: Rivera, (Free agent), Chamberlain, Albaladejo
2010: Rivera, Melancon, Robertson, Sanchez
2011: Melancon, Horne, Robertson, Sanchez


Oakland - With interest around the league seemingly not as high as expected, 24-year-old Huston Street still might be Oakland's long-term closer. GM Billy Beane has always figured he can come up with new closers when necessary, so if anyone was willing to give up an elite talent to land Street, a deal probably could have been done last winter. However, nothing has happened yet and it doesn't seem all that likely that a deal will be struck at the trade deadline. The A's will probably make another attempt to extend him this winter. If he's not willing to commit beyond 2010, then a trade will again be a real possibility.

If the A's do move Street, they'll probably go young in the closer's role, barring a bargain falling into their laps. Joey Devine, Andrew Brown and Santiago Casilla are all sporting ERAs under 2.00 this season, though all have also spent time on the DL. Devine, who was picked up from the Braves for Mark Kotsay, is the best bet of the group now that he's throwing more strikes than ever before. All three have fastballs around 93-95 mph, with Casilla throwing a touch harder, and sliders for a No. 2 pitch. Devine gets the edge because he has most break on his slider.

In the minors are Henry Rodriguez, Andrew Bailey, Vincent Mazzaro and Sam Demel. Rodriguez has outstanding upside as a starting pitcher, but if he doesn't harness his command, the A's will eventually have no choice but to move him. That's at least a couple of years off, though. Bailey could be closer to moving, as command problems have made him a mediocre starter in Double-A. He'd probably throw in the mid-90s as a reliever, and he has a promising curveball. Mazzaro, also starting in Double-A, might be a future setup man. Demel, a 2007 third-round pick, is a true reliever with a 2.93 ERA and a 46/19 K/BB ratio in 33 innings for Single-A Stockton. He could turn into a setup man.

2009: Street, Devine, Casilla, Brown
2010: Devine, Street, Casilla, Demel
2011: Devine, Casilla, Demel, Bailey



Seattle - J.J. Putz looked like as much of a sure thing for the future as any AL closer three months ago, but a strained rib-cage muscle, a finger injury and now a hyperextended elbow have taken a major toll. Even before the elbow injury, his velocity was clearly down and his command was off. Whispers of his emergence as a dominant reliever being steroids related have only gotten louder with the dramatic decline.

If Putz can't get healthy and put together a strong second half, then there's a good chance plans to move Brandon Morrow to the rotation will be postponed once again. Ideally, Putz would reestablish himself in the closer's role and the Mariners could make Morrow their third or fourth starter next season. However, Morrow could run away with the closer's role in the second half of this season if Putz doesn't get it together.

Outside of those two, the Mariners' options are limited. Mark Lowe isn't the same pitcher after his battle with elbow troubles. Maybe next year will be different for him, but he looks like middle-relief material right now. Miguel Batista has closing experience and is signed for 2009. He's the fallback right now, but at 37 and clearly on the decline, he isn't a very realistic option going forward. Since the Mariners were short on relief prospects in the system, former GM Bill Bavasi picked a polished college reliever in Josh Fields with the 20th overall pick in this month's draft. He has a quality fastball-curveball combination and should move quickly.

2009: Putz, Morrow, Lowe, Fields
2010: Putz, Fields, Morrow, Lowe
2011: Putz, Fields, Morrow, Lowe


Tampa Bay - Al Reyes was 26-for-30 in save chances last season, but the Rays still figured to go outside of the organization for a new closer over the winter and found one in Troy Percival. Since being given a two-year, $8 million contract, Percival has converted 17 saves in 19 opportunities and served just one stint on the disabled list. If he can stay relatively healthy, there's little doubt he'll remain Tampa Bay's closer in 2009. However, quality alternatives are a must.

Reyes is 38 and has been having shoulder troubles all year, so Dan Wheeler is currently the No. 2 man in the Rays' pen. The recipient of a three-year, $10.5 million contract on April 1, Wheeler appears unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon. However, he'll probably end his deal as nothing more than the third or fourth man in the pen. Ideally, someone younger would step up and settle in as the eighth-inning guy next year. Grant Balfour is one option, but he's been a tease throughout his career.

Unfortunately, the Rays haven't had much luck when it comes to developing relievers. Seth McClung is gone to Milwaukee, Chad Orvella is out for the season and Juan Salas turned out to be on the juice. It looked like the Rays acquired a potential closer when they picked up Eduardo Morlan from the Twins in the Delmon Young trade, but he's been hurt at Double-A Montgomery for most of the year. The team's best hope might be Jeff Niemann, the former top SP prospect who is in danger of being passed by David Price, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Jeremy Hellickson. Niemann's stuff isn't what it was before shoulder troubles, but if his fastball received a boost from a move to the pen, he might show closer ability. Also worth watching is Ryan Reid, a 2006 seventh-round pick with a 0.42 ERA and a .128 average against between Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A Montgomery. He's probably more of a setup man than a closer, but his numbers are positively awesome.

2009: Percival, Wheeler, Niemann, Balfour
2010: (Free agent), Niemann, Morlan, Wheeler
2011: Niemann, Morlan, Reid, Matt Walker


Texas - The Rangers' closing situation is as up in the air as any in baseball. C.J. Wilson was handed the job this year despite his control issues, but has twice been on the cusp of being replaced. Joaquin Benoit, who isn't viewed as having a closer's mentality, has been battling a troublesome shoulder since spring training. Eddie Guardado and Jamey Wright have actually been the Rangers' most reliable relievers, and Guardado could get a chance to close later this season. However, neither is a likely option in 2009. The Rangers would love to see Frank Francisco show the same kind of potential he did as a rookie in 2004, but while his stuff has come back after Tommy John surgery, he's too wild to be trusted at the end of games. He currently has 35 strikeouts, 17 walks and a 4.23 ERA in 27 2/3 innings.

The best hope in the system for a closer of the future is Warner Madrigal, who was stolen away from the Angels in December. The converted outfielder has a 3.27 ERA and a 38/15 K/BB ratio in 33 innings between Double- and Triple-A. Besides him, the Rangers lack pure relief prospects. 2007 draft picks Neil Ramirez and Tommy Hunter are possibilities to shift to the pen, and Hunter might be of use as soon as next year if he's moved. Former top starting pitching prospect Thomas Diamond remains a candidate to make it as a starter, but he might have a better chance of a career as a setup man at this point.

While Wilson is young and could improve, my guess is that the Rangers' 2009 closer isn't currently in the organization. They could come up with the money to make a run at K-Rod or Lidge if they feel they're close enough to contending. Brandon Lyon would be less expensive, and his sinker would make him a nice fit in Texas. Also, the Rangers could consider bringing back Akinori Otsuka, assuming his rehab from Tommy John surgery goes well.

2009: (Free agent), Wilson, Francisco, Benoit
2010: (Free agent), Wilson, Madrigal, Francisco
2011: Madrigal, Wilson, Diamond, Francisco


Toronto - B.J. Ryan hit a bump in the road earlier this month, but he still has a 2.63 ERA and 14 saves in 16 opportunities in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. That's reason for optimism that he'll remain a quality closer until his five-year, $47 million contract expires after 2010. The Blue Jays could opt to shop him this winter if their next GM (it's a hunch) chooses to rebuild, but since he wouldn't have a whole lot of trade value and there's no obvious replacement, it's likely that the Jays will keep him.

That there is no clear replacement is because Jeremy Accardo has been dealing with elbow/forearm problems since early May, if not well before. He hasn't had his splitter at any point during the season, so he wasn't any good before landing on the disabled list. If rest takes care of Accardo's problem, he could return as a quality setup man in the second half. However, he was probably pitching over his head last year.

The Blue Jays should get Casey Janssen back in 2009 following his shoulder surgery in March. The plan was to make him a starter this year, but he could go back into the bullpen next season and contribute in a setup role. With his subpar strikeout rate, he's hardly a prototypical closer. However, he's a fine pitcher and likely could handle the role if given the chance.

Also still in the organization is Brandon League. His stuff hasn't come all of the way back following his shoulder woes, but he's still getting plenty of sinking action on his heater. 2007 supplemental first-round pick Brett Cecil is a pretty good bet to make it as a starter, but the bullpen is there as a fallback. A left-hander with a low-90s fastball and a slider, he'd likely excel as a short reliever. 21-year-old Joel Carrero is in short-season ball for a season year in a row, but he has a live arm and above average command. He could be interesting in a couple of years.

2009: Ryan, Accardo, Janssen, League
2010: Ryan, Accardo, League, Janssen
2011: (Free agent), Accardo, Ryan, Cecil

[Hache Man]

NL Closers of the Future
Here's the second of two columns looking at each team's closing situation for 2008 and beyond. Featured this week are the National League squads.

Found after each team's writeup is my listing of which pitchers have the best chance of leading the team in saves in 2009, 2010 and 2011 ranked in order.

National League Closers

Arizona - The Diamondbacks figured it wasn't worth paying Jose Valverde about $13 million for the next two years when other relievers could get the job done. They picked Brandon Lyon over Tony Pena Jr. to close this year and have been better off because of it. Lyon, Pena and Chad Qualls all have better ERAs than Valverde while working in the late innings of games.

Since Lyon is a free agent this winter and he's seemingly on his way to earning himself a pretty nice multiyear deal, the Diamondbacks could turn to Pena in the closer's role next year. Pena has a 2.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 33 2/3 innings this season. He's blown only one lead while typically pitching the seventh or eighth and that was the result of an unearned run. The stuff is there for him to be a long-term closer, and the Diamondbacks would still have the rock-solid Qualls as a fallback.

The organization has a few other pitchers who have been talked about as closers at different points in their careers. Juan Cruz certainly has the stuff, but he'll probably never get there because of his command issues. Like Lyon, he's a free agent at season's end, and he is the less likely of the two to return. Micah Owings was settling in as a solid starter until struggling over the last month. His improved changeup should help him stay in the rotation, and it doesn't hurt his case that he is one of the best hitting pitchers ever. It'd be a shame to lose that bat. Max Scherzer was considered by some to be a future closer when he was drafted in the first round in 2006, but he's displayed top-of-the-rotation potential this year. Last month's switch to the pen was only temporary. 2008 first-round pick Daniel Schlereth is a pure reliever with very good stuff for a left-hander. He projects as a setup man, but it's possible that he could close.

2009: Pena, Lyon, Qualls, Scherzer
2010: Pena, Lyon, Schlereth, Qualls
2011: Pena, Schlereth, Lyon, Qualls


Atlanta - With seven different relievers having earned a total of 12 saves and another one (John Smoltz) going back on the DL before he could even get one, the Braves' pen has been a mess. The team gave Rafael Soriano a two-year, $9 million deal in January and made him the Opening Day closer, but he's been sidelined with elbow troubles. Smoltz and Peter Moylan have gone down for the year, and Mike Gonzalez is just now returning from Tommy John surgery. It's Gonzalez who looks like the clear favorite for saves over the rest of this year. atlantabraves.com

The Braves will control both Gonzalez and Soriano for 2009, but unless Gonzalez really runs away with the job, odds are that they'll be looking for late-inning help over the winter. While Francisco Rodriguez and Brad Lidge could prove to be out of reach, they may have the money for Lyon, Brian Fuentes or Jason Isringhausen. Gonzalez was 24-for-24 in save chances for the Pirates just two years ago, so he's certainly capable of getting the job done. However, he's never thrown more than 54 innings in a season.

Most of the Braves' remaining relievers look like setup men. Manny Acosta and Blaine Boyer both have above average stuff and could turn into average closers if things break right, but neither has proven trustworthy enough yet. Moylan should be back from Tommy John surgery next year, but he might not have quite the same stuff. As something of a gimmick pitcher, he's not the typical closer anyway. Anthony Lerew had Tommy John surgery last year and began a rehab assignment last week. The Braves have gone back and forth on him as a starter and reliever, but he has a great arm and could surprise as a late-inning guy. Charlie Morton has emerged as a viable starting pitcher this year after previously looking like a relief prospect. Kris Medlen and Kevin Gunderson are interesting prospects at Double-A Mississippi, but, again, neither is shaping up as a closer.

2009: Gonzalez, (Free agent), Soriano, Boyer
2010: (Free agent), Gonzalez, Boyer, Lerew
2011: (Free agent), Boyer, Lerew, Gonzalez


Chicago - Things were as up in the air for the Cubs a year ago as they are for the Braves right now, but with Kerry Wood putting together three healthy months for the first time since 2003 and Carlos Marmol quickly developing into one of the game's best relievers, the entire pen has been pretty stable this season. It does remain to be seen what will happen in 2009. Wood has taken less money to stay with the Cubs each of the last two years. If he can get through the rest of this season without an arm problem, he'll want to be rewarded, probably to the tune of $10 million per year for two or three seasons. The Cubs can afford it, but they do have Marmol ready to take over at a moment's notice. No pitcher in baseball is tougher to hit.

In this space a year ago, I had Angel Guzman as the favorite for saves in 2008 (with Marmol taking over in 2009). Guzman, though, hurt his elbow last June and underwent Tommy John surgery in October. He'll try to earn a setup role in the first half of next year. Jose Ascanio, who was picked up from the Braves, should develop into a seventh- or eighth-inning guy, perhaps by next year. He allowed one run in five innings in his first stint with the Cubs last month. Jeff Samardzija was supposed to be a closer-type reliever if he failed to develop as a starter coming out of Notre Dame, but nothing he's done in the last year suggests he'll be a major league pitcher at all.

Even with Samardzija falling out of the picture, the Cubs have two of the game's top relief prospects. Jose Ceda can throw in the high-90s and has a promising slider. He's not going to come as quickly as the team was thinking this spring, but he might be of use by the middle of 2009. Andrew Cashner was the first of four relievers selected in the first round of this year's draft, and he's polished enough to potentially contribute during the second half of this season. With a 94-97 mph fastball and a plus slider, he should close someday.

2009: Marmol, Wood, Cashner, Michael Wuertz
2010: Marmol, Wood, Cashner, Ceda
2011: Marmol, Cashner, Ceda, Wood


Cincinnati - The Reds did need to go get themselves a closer in an effort to get over the hump, but as should be obvious by now, there were better ways to spend $46 million. Because former GM Wayne Krivsky didn't do enough to improve elsewhere, he's out of work and Francisco Cordero has had just 17 save chances. He's converted 14 of them, so he's done no better of a job than David Weathers did last year.

Cordero is signed through 2011, and with good health, he'll probably be an effective closer throughout the deal. The Reds could look to deal him after 2009 or 2010 if they're still not contenders, but with as much young talent as they have, they should be in fine position by then.

Next in line for the job are Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Josh Roenicke. Burton, a Rule-5 pick in Dec. 2006, has proven that last year was no fluke by posting a 2.52 ERA so far this year. He's taking over for Weathers as the eighth-inning guy. Bray, a 2004 first-round pick, is still trying to establish himself, but it looks like it's going to happen for him this year. Despite shaky control, he has a 2.38 ERA during his two stints in the majors this season. Roenicke could be the next addition to Cincinnati's pen. He has a 2.76 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings between Double- and Triple-A this season. Sean Watson is another decent relief prospect, though he has had difficulties with walks this season.

2009: Cordero, Burton, Bray, Roenicke
2010: Cordero, Burton, Roenicke, Bray
2011: Cordero, Burton, Roenicke, Bray


Colorado - Manny Corpas was terrific after overtaking Brian Fuentes in the closer's role last year, and the Rockies thought enough of him to give him a four-year deal at the start of the spring. However, things haven't worked out as hoped. Corpas was pulled from the closer's role after blowing four of his first eight save opportunities, and the Rockies suddenly had good reason to be pleased they failed to find the right offer for Fuentes in the offseason. The left-hander is 13-for-14 since taking over for Corpas.

Fuentes is a free agent at season's end and he'll be quite expensive to keep, so unless the Rockies can put a run together over the next month and get close in the NL West, it's quite possible that he'll be traded. If so, the Rockies would have the option of going back to Corpas or turning the closer's role over to Taylor Buchholz. A full-time short reliever for the first time, Buchholz has been one of the NL's very best setup men, and he'd likely make a fine transition to closing if needed. The Rockies would probably prefer to go back to Corpas -- they have plenty of financial incentive for doing so, considering that he's locked up and Buchholz will be arbitration eligible -- but he'd have to pitch a whole lot better over the next month in order to make it happen. Buchholz is probably the better bet for the long term, but that might not mean much in the competition for saves.

The question of Corpas versus Buchholz might be moot in a year, as 2007 first-round pick Casey Weathers should be ready by mid-2009. The Rockies used the eighth overall selection on him, so they're expecting him to become a closer with his mid-90s fastball and hard slider. Pedro Strop is another fine relief prospect, but he went down in April with a stress fracture in his elbow and has yet to make it back. Juan Morillo, who was previously the Rockies' top relief prospect, had terrible control problems in Triple-A earlier this year and is about out of the team's plans now. Oft-injured righty Shane Lindsay might have a better chance of staying healthy if moved to the pen. He's quite talented, but he's been limited to 200 innings in five seasons as a pro.

2009: Corpas, Buchholz, (Free agent), Weathers
2010: Weathers, Corpas, Buchholz, Strop
2011: Weathers, Corpas, Buchholz, Strop



Florida - Kevin Gregg, Florida's highest-paid player, has a sterling 2.52 ERA this season, but he has blown four of his 17 save chances. The Marlins may feel forced to keep him this summer if they remain in contention, but the smart move would be to look to sell high. The team has no shortage of power arms that could potentially thrive in short relief. There's no obvious second option at the moment, but there might be in a month.

If Gregg were to go down right now, the Marlins would probably go with a combination of Justin Miller and Renyel Pinto at the end of games. Matt Lindstrom was supposed to be the No. 2 man in the pen and he was excellent during May, but he's been lit up this month. With his high-90s fastball, he's still the best bet to eventually replace Gregg. Logan Kensing could be a nice setup man if his command comes back the further removed he becomes from Tommy John surgery. Ricky Nolasco would be capable of closing if moved from the rotation to the pen. It's a switch the Marlins could consider if Josh Johnson and Sergio Mitre make it back after the All-Star break. The team could also get Henry Owens back before the end of the year. Owens looked like closer material before hurting his shoulder last year and undergoing surgery. He'll be a sleeper for 2009. Ryan Tucker, who recently joined Florida's rotation, has shown enough progress this year that he seems likely to avoid a move to the pen, though he'd have closer potential.

Interesting pitchers in the minors include Eulogio De La Cruz, Scott Nestor, Chris Leroux and Corey Madden. De La Cruz, who was picked up in the Miguel Cabrera deal, has moved back into the rotation in Triple-A this year, but he's still likely to be a long-term reliever. Command problems may prevent him from fulfilling his potential. Nestor has a great fastball, but not a whole lot else. Leroux is a 24-year-old in A-ball, which wouldn't seem to bode well for his chances. However, he has a nice fastball-slider combination and his career could take off if he's moved back to the pen next year. Madden, also 24, has a 0.90 ERA and is picking up three strikeouts for every hit he allows in the Sally League. He doesn't quite have the same kind of arm as the other prospects here, but he could develop into a sixth- or seventh-inning pitcher.

2009: Lindstrom, Gregg, Nolasco, Kensing
2010: Lindstrom, Nolasco, De La Cruz, Tucker
2011: Lindstrom, De La Cruz, Nolasco, Leroux


Houston - The Astors didn't help themselves by going from Lidge to Valverde, especially when it cost them Chad Qualls in the process. They're also missing Dan Wheeler after trading him for a below average third baseman in Ty Wigginton. Fortunately, a few of GM Ed Wade's less noteworthy pickups have performed well. Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary and Tim Byrdak have done fine work in the seventh and eighth innings. However, there's no one around who would inspire as much confidence as Qualls or Wheeler in the closer's role if Valverde were to go down.

Valverde is under control through 2009, and it's easy to see the Astros making a bid to lock him up for an additional three or four years this winter. If they couldn't get a deal done, they'd likely go after another experienced closer to replace Valverde in 2010. The internal options aren't all that attractive.

The best bet to eventually emerge as a closer is Felipe Paulino, though the Astros are holding out hope that he'll make it as a starter. He throws in the high-90s when healthy, but he's been unable to pitch this year after being diagnosed with a pinched nerve in his arm during spring training. 2006 sixth-round pick Bud Norris is also being developed as a starter, but he's primarily a two-pitch pitcher with an above average fastball and an excellent curve. Samuel Gervacio has fanned 50 in 39 2/3 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi, but he's also allowed 23 runs, 17 of them earned. Since he has trouble with lefties, he'll probably top out as a seventh- or eighth-inning guy. Currently relieving in the minors is Fernando Nieve, but the hope is that he'll go back into the rotation next year. He's a better bet than Paulino or Norris to last as a starter.

2009: Valverde, (Free agent), Paulino, Gervacio
2010: Valverde, (Free agent), Norris, Paulino
2011: Valvedre, Norris, (Free agent), Paulino


Los Angeles - Takashi Saito hasn't been quite as dominant this year as he was in his first two seasons, but he still has 41 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings. It's not his fault the Dodgers haven't had many save opportunities to give him. Saito remains under control through 2011, though since next year is his age-39 season, it's doubtful that he'll still be closing then. He could even choose to go back to Japan while still an effective reliever. Whenever the decline sets in or he opts to return home, Jonathan Broxton will get his chance to take over. Broxton had a rough May, but he's back going strong this month and he has a chance to reach 90 strikeouts for the third straight season.

Behind the top two are Jonathan Meloan, Yhency Brazoban, Ramon Troncoso, Cory Wade and maybe Greg Miller. Meloan was a career reliever until the Dodgers opted to have him start games in Triple-A this year. He's performed well for the most part, but he still projects as a top-notch setup man for Broxton. Brazoban has struggled to overcome serious arm problems and now seems unlikely to recapture his former promise, though there's still time. Before Broxton was moved to the pen, it was Brazoban who looked like the Dodgers' closer of the future. Troncoso signed in 2002, but didn't reach Double-A until the middle of last year. Surprisingly, he won a bullpen spot coming out of spring training this year. He and Wade look like capable sixth- and seventh-inning guys. Miller is striking out a batter an inning in Triple-A and getting most of the rest of his outs on the ground. However, he's also walked 32 in 34 2/3 innings. He's a real long shot at this point.

2009: Saito, Broxton, (Free agent), Meloan
2010: Broxton, Saito, Meloan, Troncoso
2011: Broxton, Meloan, Saito, Troncoso


Milwaukee - The Brewers went a long way in their attempt to keep Cordero, then turned to Eric Gagne when they came up a little short. It hasn't worked out at all, but at least it was only a one-year gamble, and the Brewers could always try again next winter. A run at Lidge seems likely, and the Brewers could see if it'd be possible to lure Wood away from a division rival. Fuentes, though, might be the best fit of any of the free agents. The Brewers also have assets to trade for Huston Street or another closer.

An external option will likely be a must. Salomon Torres has been doing a great job, but he'll be 37 next March. David Riske should bounce back and become a quality setup man, but that's it. Guillermo Mota is Guillermo Mota. Barring a miraculous turnaround, Derrick Turnbow is looking like a lock to be non-tendered in December. Carlos Villanueva may be the best bet of the Brewers' relievers going forward, but the organization still hasn't given up on him as a starter and he's too homer-prone to be a great option in the ninth anyway.

There isn't anyone in the minors who currently projects as a closer. Luis Pena took a big step forward last year and seemed to flash that kind of potential, but he has trouble throwing strikes at times. He's more likely to settle in as a setup man. 2006 first-round pick Jeremy Jeffress is the Brewers' top SP prospect, but if he fails to develop, a move to the pen would become an option in a couple of years. 20-year-old Rob Bryson has a 4.79 ERA while splitting time between the rotation and pen for low Single-A West Virginia, but he has fanned 60 in 47 innings. With a low-90s fastball and quality slider, he projects better as a reliever.

2009: (Free agent), Torres, Villanueva, Pena
2010: (Free agent), Pena, Villaneuva, Bryson
2011: (Free agent), Pena, Bryson, Villanueva


New York - Billy Wagner has had bad runs for a week or two, like when he blew three straight saves earlier this month, but he's remained an elite closer 2 ½ seasons into his four-year, $43 million contract. The Mets will keep him in that role through 2009 and then decide whether it's worth giving him an additional two years. The team has been loading up with relief prospects in part to find a successor for Wagner, but most of the guys they've come up with look more like setup men than closers. www.newyorkmets.ws

2007 supplemental first-rounder Eddie Kunz might be their best hope for a ninth-inning guy. The right-hander throws in the mid-90s and induces grounders with the sinking action on his fastball, but walks are a problem and his slider isn't an out pitch against left-handers. Former UCLA closer Brant Rustich looked like an overdraft in the second round last year. He has a big arm, but he's 23 and doesn't yet know how to pitch. Third-rounder Stephen Clyne has also been a disappointment so far. The Mets should have gone in a different direction in the draft last year.

Duaner Sanchez has been inconsistent since returning from his shoulder problems, but that was to be expected after a year and a half off. He's still shaping up as the primary fallback in the event of an injury to Wagner. Aaron Heilman has had a rough 2008 and might not be a Met for much longer. If he gets to go elsewhere, he'd likely request a move into the rotation. Joe Smith should be a valuable piece of a major league pen for a long time, but not in the closer's role. GM Omar Minaya will hold out hope that Ambiorix Burgos blossoms after returning from Tommy John surgery. I wouldn't be shocked to see Burgos closing games in 2010, but it'd also be no surprise if he landed on the waiver wire before then.

2009: Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Kunz
2010: (Free agent), Wagner, Kunz, Burgos
2011: (Free agent), Kunz, Wagner, Burgos


Philadelphia - Putting Brett Myers back into the rotation was the right move, though it hasn't worked out as well as hoped. At least the Phillies have received great results from Lidge in the closer's role. He's a perfect 18-for-18 to date. If he keeps it, he'll be in line for a big multiyear deal as a free agent. $50 million-$60 million over four years would be within reach. The Phillies could be the ones to give it to them. If they don't, they'll almost certainly buy another veteran. GM Pat Gillick is expected to retire at the end of the year, but it's doubtful his replacement would want to go into 2009 with an inexperienced closer.

The lone alternative to Lidge in the organization would seem to be Myers. He might even welcome a return to the closer's role if he can't turn things around this year. Tom Gordon has faded and is a free agent at season's end anyway. Ryan Madson could be an adequate closer, but he'd likely remain more valuable in a setup role with his ability to pitch two innings at a time. Prospect Joe Bisenius has stumbled over the last year and a half. He still might make it as a setup man, but the Phillies don't seem to be counting on him at this point. Left-hander Antonio Bastardo has broken through this season, so predictions that he'd end up in the pen were likely mistakes.

2009: Lidge, (Free agent), Myers, Madson
2010: Lidge, (Free agent), Madson, Bisenius
2011: Lidge, (Free agent), Bisenius, Madson




Pittsburgh - Matt Capps didn't look like a long-term closer when he arrived in the majors or even after a solid rookie season in 2006, but he's 35-for-40 in save chances since overtaking Torres last year and he now seems set to keep the job for several years. Outstanding command has thus far made up for his tendency to allow homers. He's issued a total of 18 unintentional walks in 200 innings as a major leaguer.

With no real alternatives in the organization, it's unlikely that the Pirates would consider trading Capps, even though he'd bring back a nice return. Damaso Marte is the No. 2 reliever for now, but he's quite likely to go in a deal during July. Hard-throwing right-hander Tyler Yates got off to a nice start after being picked up for the Braves, but he's now walked 29 in 35 2/3 innings. Romulo Sanchez intrigues some with his fastball-curveball combination, but I'm skeptical he'll turn out to be more than a mediocre middle reliever. Daniel Moskos was selected fourth overall in the 2007 draft by the old regime last year with the idea that he'd quickly reach the majors as a reliever. However, new GM Neal Huntington had him inserted into the rotation at Single-A Lynchburg, and he currently projects as a fourth starter. Low Single-A Hickory's Ronald Uviedo may develop into a setup man in three years or so.

2009: Capps, (Free agent), Yates, Sanchez
2010: Capps, (Free agent), Moskos, Yates
2011: Capps, (Free agent), Moskos, Uviedo


St. Louis - Jason Isrignhausen finished 2007 with a 2.48 ERA and 32 saves in 34 opportunities, so the Cards weren't expecting to have to find a new closer a month into this season. Fortunately, Ryan Franklin has taken over the role without missing a beat. Also, Isringhausen is back now and looking better than he did in April. He's not back to 2007 form yet, but there's hope that he will reclaim the closer's role sometime next month.

Things are still up in the air for 2009. Izzy is a free agent and probably won't return unless it's on a one-year deal. Franklin is under control through 2010, but he'll turn 36 in March and he doesn't have what anyone would consider closer-type stuff. 2006 first-round pick Chris Perez is likely to be the long-term closer for the Cardinals. Combining a deceptive delivery with above average stuff, he's extremely difficult to hit. Command is a significant issue, so he might not be ready at the beginning of 2009. The Cards will have to decide whether they can go into next year with a top two of Perez and Franklin or if they'll need some additional veteran insurance.

The Cardinals don't lack for depth. Kyle McClellan, who made the team out of spring training despite having spent just a half-season above A ball, has proven to be a fine setup man. However, he could land in the rotation next spring. Josh Kinney has struggled to make it back from Tommy John surgery, but he could come back as a setup man next year. Mark Worrell and Jason Motte are proven minor league relievers deserving of long looks. Both might be nothing more than middle relievers, though. 2007 second-rounder Jess Todd has split time between the rotation and pen in the minors, but he's looking like a starter -- and a pretty good one -- right now. The Cards also had high hopes for Kenny Maiques, who had a 1.53 ERA and 31 saves in the Midwest League last year. However, he's had terrible control problems this season.

2009: Perez, Franklin, Isringhausen, McClellan
2010: Perez, McClellan, Franklin, Kinney
2011: Perez, McClellan, Kinney, Todd


San Diego - If Trevor Hoffman got off to a slow start when he was 30, well, it was just a slow start. Now that he's 40, that same kind of rough patch has people saying he's done. Hoffman, though, has had about the same fastball for years, and if his changeup doesn't create quite as many ugly swings as it used to, it still confounds most hitters. Hoffman has bounced back with a 2.79 ERA in his last 20 appearances, and he's striking out more than a batter an inning. As long as he keeps up his current pace, the Padres figure to bring him back for 2009. He's made $19 million over the last three years, and he'll probably be willing to settle for $6 million-$7 million to come back in 2009.

On the off chance that Hoffman doesn't want to continue his career at age 41, the Padres could just move on to Heath Bell. The money it'd cost to land another proven closer would be better spent elsewhere. Bell is in the midst of a second straight outstanding year, and the league has hit just .188 off him during his time with the Padres.

The rest of San Diego's pen isn't as strong as usual. Cla Meredith has been a below average reliever since last May. The Padres could opt to trade him to a team that would benefit more from his groundball tendencies. The team's other relievers are largely journeymen. Things don't look a whole lot better in the minors. Former first overall pick Matt Bush was flashing a big fastball after making the move from shortstop to the mound last year, but he lasted only a few weeks before blowing out his elbow. 2007 fourth-round pick Cory Kluber could be promising as a reliever, but he remains a starter for now. He throws in the low-90s and has a nice slider. Ernesto Frieri and Wilton Lopez are less interesting. Matt Latos has the most upside of any of San Diego's pitching prospects, yet some have looked at him as a reliever. The Padres won't consider switching him anytime soon. Despite a lack of pitching depth, San Diego used its first seven picks in the 2007 draft on bats.

2009: Hoffman, Bell, (Free agent), Meredith
2010: (Free agent), Bell, Hoffman, Kluber
2011: (Free agent), Bell, Kluber, Bush


San Francisco - The Giants have had different saves leaders every year since Robb Nen finished his career in 2002, and they've had multiple closers in most seasons. The hope is that LSU product Brian Wilson will stabilize the role, and he is 19-for-21 closing out games this year. However, he does have a history of control issues and his 2008 ERA is 4.40. He'll probably be a decent enough closer going forward, but it's doubtful that he'll ever be an elite reliever.

Possibly possessing more upside than Wilson is Merkin Valdez. He is back on the DL now with another elbow problem after missing 2007 following Tommy John surgery, but he had a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings before going down. The Giants would be thrilled to see him develop into a reliable setup man. He was throwing 94-97 mph before getting hurt.

Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez, two pitchers who were talked about as potential closers, are well established in the rotation now, leaving the Giants without a lot of competition for Wilson and Valdez. They have prospects like Sergio Romo, Brian Anderson, Justin Hedrick, Osiris Matos and Kelvin Pichardo, but no one particularly exciting for fantasy purposes. Matos is the best bet of the group, and he could develop into a legitimate setup man. If Wilson disappoints or has arm troubles, then it's possible Henry Sosa could be shifted to the pen. Sosa has No. 3-starter potential, but he is primarily a two-pitch pitcher. With his fastball-curveball combination, he could be an excellent reliever.

2009: Wilson, (Free agent), Valdez, Matos
2010: Wilson, Valdez, Matos, Sosa
2011: Wilson, Sosa, Valdez, Matos


Washington - Nationals GM Jim Bowden maintained an extremely high asking price in trade talks for Chad Cordero and never did find a taker. Now he'll probably have to wait until 2009 in order to get anything back for the former first-round pick. With Cordero sidelined due to a muscle tear in his shoulder, the Nats have turned to Jon Rauch in the closer's role and gotten nice results. Bowden will have another tough call next month when the offers for Rauch come rolling in.

The Nationals have Cordero under control through 2009 and Rauch through 2010. If Cordero can make it back next month, even if he's not what he was, it would allow the Nationals to cash in Rauch for a prospect or two. They could then ease Cordero back into the closer's role, which is where he'd have the best chance of rebuilding his value. Cordero, though, will need to show more than an 83-84 mph fastball after returning. It might not happen for him until next year.

Regardless, moving Rauch is the right move, if only because right-handed relief pitching is the deepest area in the organization. Joel Hanrahan and Jesus Colome both have great fastballs, and though neither still has youth working in his favor, it's possible things will click and one of the two will emerge as a viable closer. Chris Schroder has used his slider to fan 85 in 78 2/3 innings as a major leaguer, though he's still trying to establish himself at age 29. Also, Luis Ayala can't be forgotten about, even if he has had a disappointing first half. With a career ERA of 3.11, he remains a reliable setup man.

The organization also possesses some of the game's most notable relief prospects in Martin Beno, Adam Carr and Zech Zinicola. The 21-year-old Beno has fanned 39 and walked 27 in 28 2/3 innings this season. He has big-time stuff if only he can learn to harness it. Carr, who was a teammate of Beno's at Oklahoma State, is still learning how to pitch after being more concerned with his offense in college, but he's fanned 140 in 117 1/3 innings as a pro. He just moved up to Double-A. Zinicola has a low-90s fastball and a plus sinker. He's the best bet of the trio to have a lengthy career in the majors, but he also has the lowest ceiling.

2009: Cordero, Rauch, Hanrahan, Colome
2010: (Free agent), Hanrahan, Carr, Zinicola
2011: (Free agent), Carr, Hanrahan, Beno

[Hache Man]

Dempster Still Perfect at Home
Ryan Dempster improved to 9-0 at Wrigley Field by holding the White Sox to one run over eight innings Sunday night, leading the Cubs to their 14th straight home victory and MLB-best 48-28 record. Dempster spent his first four seasons in Chicago as a mediocre reliever, going 9-20 with a 4.10 ERA. He did surprisingly well converting save chances over that span with an 85-percent success rate, but was stripped of ninth-inning duties and moved back to the rotation this year.

Dempster had limited success as a starter early in his career thanks largely to shaky control that included 4.7 walks per nine innings through his first 162 starts. He's still far from a control artist, but handing out 38 walks through 102.2 innings represents a 30-percent improvement and is the biggest reason for his surprising success. He's always been able to rack up plenty of strikeouts, but came into this season with a 5.00 ERA as a starter and a 4.11 ERA as a reliever.

Sunday's outing pushed him over the 100-inning mark for the first time since 2003, so the huge jump in workload may catch up to him in the second half. Beyond that, his secondary numbers—strikeouts, walks, ground ball-to-fly ball ratio—suggest that Dempster has performed more like a 3.75-4.00 ERA pitcher than the 2.63 mark that he's currently sporting. While his improvements are legitimate and he's not likely to fall apart completely, Dempster is a good sell-high candidate.

While the Cubs keep rolling without Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* Justin Duchscherer has followed the same path as Dempster, beginning his career as a starter, spending 2004-2007 in the bullpen, and switching back to the rotation this year. Duchscherer is a little different in that most of his starting was done in the minors and he thrived in the bullpen, but the career progression is similar and the success this season is just as startling. He held the Mariners to one run over 7.2 innings Sunday, improving to 8-4 while slicing his ERA to 1.99.

He's yet to allow more than three runs in a start and has given up two runs or fewer in 11 of 12 outings. However, Duchscherer spent most of April on the disabled list with a strained biceps and has a history of elbow and hip injuries, so like Dempster he's no sure thing to handle the workload increase. My guess is that Duchscherer has a better chance of maintaining an ERA below 3.50 all season, but Dempster has a better chance of staying healthy for 15 more starts.

* Ian Snell struggled Sunday against the Blue Jays and complained of elbow soreness afterward, with the Pirates scheduling him for an MRI exam Monday. "We are going to run some tests," manager John Russell said. "Hopefully it's not anything major, but we'll get some tests run and go from there. He didn't feel right today and he has a little irritation." An elbow problem would help explain Snell's decline this season, although he hadn't reported any trouble prior to Sunday.

Snell faced 1,695 batters between 2006 and 2007, striking out 20.4 percent while walking 7.9 percent. This season his strikeout rate has dipped to 15.4 percent and has walk rate has risen to 11.8 percent. That adds up to 25 percent fewer strikeouts and 50 percent more walks, which along with slightly decreased velocity is certainly the type of performance that you'd expect from someone who's been pitching through elbow problems.

* After sitting out over a year following Tommy John surgery, Mike Gonzalez returned from the disabled list last week and immediately took over as the Braves' closer, tossing a perfect ninth inning to pick up a save in his first appearance. He then waited four days for his next appearance and struggled in a non-save situation Sunday, allowing three runs on three hits, including serving up a homer to a left-handed batter (Jeff Clement) for just the third time in his career.

Gonzalez's command understandably doesn't appear to be very sharp yet, but the velocity on both his fastball and slider are fairly close to where they were in his prime. He still works at around 91-94 miles per hour with his fastball and 78-82 miles per hour with his slider, so expect Gonzalez to have at least reasonable success in the closer role as long as he remains healthy. That's a big question mark given his history, but his stuff looks good enough to get the job done.

AL Quick Hits: Vicente Padilla held the Nationals to three runs over seven innings Sunday and the unlikely quartet of Padilla, Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, and Mike Mussina are the AL pitchers with double-digit wins … Ivan Rodriguez reached base four times Sunday, including a solo homer that was just his second long ball of the season … After knocking in a run with a first-inning double Sunday, Nick Markakis drew walks in four straight trips to the plate … Kevin Youkilis delivered a walk-off homer in the 13th inning Sunday and is now just three homers short of matching his career-high of 16 set last year … Andy Pettitte shut out the Reds for six innings Sunday and has now allowed a total of one run over his last three starts following back-to-back ugly outings to begin the month … Milton Bradley (quadriceps) singled as a pinch-hitter Saturday, but then missed his fifth straight start Sunday … With Freddie Bynum designated for assignment Sunday, Alex Cintron takes over as the Orioles' starting shortstop … He has just one homer this month, but Justin Morneau has still driven in 15 runs over the past 11 games.

NL Quick Hits: Prince Fielder had just one homer through 20 games, but after going deep twice Sunday he has 15 homers in 54 games since … Randy Wolf totaled 10 strikeouts in Sunday's loss to the Tigers, reaching double digits for the first time in 25 starts … Mark Teixeira smacked three homers Sunday, giving him 30 homers and 111 RBIs in 129 games with the Braves … Clint Barmes returned from the disabled list Sunday and will split time at second base with Jeff Baker, sending Ian Stewart back to Triple-A … Brandon Webb was cruising along Sunday until the Twins scratched together a five-run fifth inning, dropping him to 2-4 since beginning the year 9-0 … Eric Patterson went 2-for-3 with a homer and three runs Sunday, but likely won't get enough playing time to be a fantasy asset … Manny Parra handed out a career-high six walks Sunday, yet won his fifth straight start … Seeing increased action with Cesar Izturis (hamstring) sidelined, Aaron Miles collected five hits Sunday to raise his batting average from .293 to .313 … Daily Dose favorite Fred Lewis collected three hits and two walks Sunday while swiping his 13th base.

[Hache Man]

King Felix Slams, Leaves
What happens when an ambidextrous pitcher faces a switch-hitting batter? Mostly there's a lot of confusion, followed by some gamesmanship, a little frustration, a few on-field meetings, and then finally … well, I won't ruin it for you. Check out this highly amusing eight-minute clip of a low Single-A game last week and see for yourself. Trust me, it's worth watching.

While Pat Venditte immediately becomes one of my favorite pitching prospects, here are some notes from around baseball …

* Monday's matchup of Venezuelan aces Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez predictably proved to be an interesting one, but hardly went as expected. King Felix made history in the second inning by taking Santana deep to the opposite field for the first grand slam by an AL pitcher in 37 years. After giving himself an early lead Hernandez cruised through 4.2 dominant innings before injuring his ankle when Carlos Beltran slid into him during a play at the plate following a wild pitch.

Hernandez was in obvious pain and could barely put weight on the ankle, yet attempted to remain in the game and even tried to talk his way into a second warm-up pitch after hopping around for several moments following his first throw. Clearly in no position to pitch, he finally relented and was carried off the field, visibly upset about coming one out short of his fifth straight win. X-rays were negative and Hernandez said afterward that he expects to make his next scheduled start.

* While the Mariners hope that Hernandez can avoid the sidelines, manager Jim Riggleman said Sunday that J.J. Putz is unlikely to make it back from his elbow injury before the All-Star break. "We don't want to rush it," Riggleman said. "It seems like with those elbows a guy says, 'I'm over it' and then he gets in the adrenalin of a game situation and it flares up again." Putz being out for the remainder of the first half would give Brandon Morrow at least three weeks with closer duties.

Of course, Morrow needs to get over health problems of his own first. He hasn't pitched since June 17 because of back spasms, but had what the Mariners deemed an "extensive" throwing session prior to Monday's game and is expected to be available Tuesday. Morrow was among the most unhittable relievers in baseball prior to the back problems, tossing 20 innings with a 0.90 ERA, 30-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .164 opponent's batting average. He can do the job.

* Injuries and poor run support kept Ben Sheets from winning more than a dozen games in any of his first seven seasons, but he's avoided his usual assortment of arm problems so far this year and looks capable of approaching 12 wins by the All-Star break. Sheets improved to 9-1 with a complete-game victory Monday, retiring the last 16 batters he faced while holding the Braves to one run on four hits.

Sheets totaled seven strikeouts without issuing a free pass, giving him an excellent 84-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 2.59 ERA over 104.1 innings. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since May 15 and leads the league with three complete games, the latest of which required just 106 pitches. He has a favorable schedule leading into the break, with a road start against the Twins followed by home starts against the Pirates and Rockies.

* After posting a career-best 3.07 ERA last season and moving from the spacious foul territory in Oakland to the hitter-friendly environment in Arizona during the winter, Dan Haren struck me as a good candidate to decline in 2008. Instead, he's been better than ever in his first season with the Diamondbacks, shutting out the Red Sox for seven innings Monday to defeat Josh Beckett and improve to 8-4 with a 3.04 ERA.

AL Quick Hits: Kevin Youkilis left Monday's game in the fifth inning when a Mike Lowell warm-up throw took an odd bounce and hit him in the eye … Justin Verlander had double-digit strikeouts Sunday for the first time in 20 starts and has lowered his ERA from 6.43 to 4.49 over the past eight outings … John Lackey held the punchless Nationals to one run over eight innings Monday, improving to 5-1 while slicing his ERA to 1.65 … Josh Beckett was a tough-luck loser Monday, falling to 7-5 despite racking up eight strikeouts over eight innings of two-run ball … According to manager Joe Girardi, the Yankees may call up Sidney Ponson from Triple-A to start in Friday's doubleheader … Orioles president Andy MacPhail said Sunday that the team will continue to look for an upgrade at shortstop after handing Alex Cintron the job … Curt Schilling underwent surgery Monday to repair his labrum and biceps, but no major damage was found in his rotator cuff and pitching again hasn't been ruled out.

NL Quick Hits: Mark Mulder (shoulder) was scratched from his scheduled minor-league rehab start Monday because of back soreness and may not be ready to rejoin the Cardinals' rotation as planned next week … Eric Byrnes came off the disabled list Monday after sitting out 25 games with matching hamstring tears and slid into the leadoff spot … Manager Jerry Manuel expressed doubt Sunday that Moises Alou (calf) will be able to play again this season, suggesting that he may "head to the house" and retire rather than struggle through more injuries … Matt Holliday went 2-for-3 with a homer Monday, going deep for the first time since coming off the shelf … John Lannan left Sunday's start after being hit on the wrist by a line drive, but a CT scan Monday revealed no major damage … Mike Cameron returned to the lineup Monday after sitting out four games with a hyperextended knee and smacked a two-run homer … Making little progress on his rehab stint, Matt Clement (shoulder) has shifted to the bullpen at Triple-A … Nationals top prospect Chris Marrero will miss the remainder of the season after breaking his fibula last week.

[Hache Man]

Run Carlos, Run!
Manager Jerry Manuel continued to make headlines Monday, suggesting that Carlos Beltran's historically excellent success rate on stolen bases has kept him from running more often. Beltran is 11-for-12 swiping bases this season and 261-for-296 during his career, which is good for an 88 percent success rate that ranks first in the history of baseball among players who've attempted at least 200 steals.

"I would hope Carlos runs into a couple of outs, just to get that percentage thing out of his mind," Manuel said. "That's going to be addressed, because that's an important part to what we're going to try to do here going forward." Whether or not Beltran upping his steal attempts will actually have a positive impact on the Mets is debatable, but there's no question that Manuel's prodding has the potential to give his fantasy value a huge boost.

Since signing with the Mets in 2006, Beltran is 69-for-81 (85.1 percent) while averaging one steal attempt per 6.3 games. Prior to arriving in New York he went 192-for-215 (89.3) while averaging one steal attempt per 4.1 games. In other words, over the past four years he's run less often and been slightly less effective when he does go for a steal. Aging and injuries have a lot to do with that, but Beltran clearly still has the ability to steal more if he's willing to see his success rate dip.

While Manuel ponders whether convincing Beltran to take more chances on the bases will require "going gangster" or not, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* One of the topics yesterday in this space was Ben Sheets staying healthy and potentially tying his career-high in wins by the All-Star break. Interestingly, shortly after moving to 9-1 with a 2.59 ERA by throwing his league-leading third complete game Monday, the impending free agent announced plans to test the market following the season regardless of whether the Brewers come to him about a new contract. "That's the direction I'm headed now," Sheets said.

Sheets' lengthy injury history and corresponding lack of jaw-dropping win totals will no doubt hurt his earning potential, but he doesn't turn 30 years old until next month and has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. Since the beginning of last year he's 21-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 39 starts, posting a fantastic 190-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 246 innings. C.C. Sabathia has gotten all the headlines thus far, but he's not the only stud pitcher hitting the market soon.

* Few pitchers can boast a more impressive minor-league track record than Kevin Slowey, who posted an amazing 1.94 ERA and even more ridiculous 361-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 366.2 innings prior to being called up to Minnesota last season. Throughout his dominance in the minors Slowey had plenty of skeptics, because many people felt that his high-80s fastball and supposed lack of a "out pitch" wouldn't translate particularly well against big-league hitters.

Slowey has turned in some rough outings that tend to include multiple homers allowed, but for the most part he's shown that pinpoint control and uncommon intelligence on the mound can go an awfully long way. He tossed a gem Tuesday, shutting out the Padres for six innings while racking up a season-high seven strikeouts, and is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 16-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three starts since being knocked around for eight runs by the White Sox on June 8.

If you remove that one ugly game from Slowey's record he has a 2.97 ERA and 42-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 starts this year. Even with the clunker against Chicago included, he's 8-7 with a 4.35 ERA, 93-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.26 WHIP over 130 career innings. Serving up 26 homers during that time is behind the mediocre ERA and he doesn't project as a future ace, but his performance has been impressive for someone who turned 24 years old last month.

AL Quick Hits: Zack Greinke racked up a season-high 10 strikeouts Tuesday as the Royals won for the ninth time in 10 games … After examining Shaun Marcum's injured elbow Monday, Dr. James Andrews determined that he won't require surgery … Gary Sheffield homered in his return from the disabled list Tuesday, which is encouraging after he hit just three homers through 163 plate appearances prior to the injury … R.A. Dickey went 0-3 with a hideous 14.11 ERA through his first three starts, but the knuckleballer shut out the Mets for seven innings Tuesday … George Sherrill loaded the bases with no outs Tuesday, but managed to wriggle out of trouble to close out a two-run lead for his 26th save in 29 chances … Alex Rios collected four hits Tuesday, including his first homer since May 1 … Josh Hamilton exited Tuesday's game with knee inflammation, but is considered day-to-day … Andy Marte started Tuesday for the first time in 17 days, striking out twice before being lifted for a pinch-hitter … With his wife set to give birth Jason Bartlett will be away from the team Wednesday and Thursday, so Ben Zobrist will be starting fresh off the DL.

NL Quick Hits: Thanks to Reed Johnson heading to the disabled list Tuesday with back spasms, Eric Patterson could emerge with short-term value in NL-only leagues … Nick Johnson will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery Tuesday to repair a torn wrist ligament, leaving Dmitri Young with little competition for playing time … After taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning last week, Dave Bush tossed seven innings of one-run ball Tuesday and has sliced his ERA from 6.56 to 4.94 over the past six starts … Bronson Arroyo turned in a disastrous start Tuesday as the Blue Jays pummeled him for 10 runs, knocking him out of the game in the second inning after 12 of 15 batters reached base … An anal fissure sidelined Kaz Matsui earlier this season, but Tuesday's trip to the DL was due to a strained hamstring … Sean Marshall totaled seven strikeouts Tuesday while subbing for Carlos Zambrano, but took the loss by allowing four runs in 4.2 innings … Adam Kennedy started at first base against a left-hander Tuesday despite never playing the position previously and hitting .250/.307/.333 against southpaws for his career.

[Hache Man]

MLB Draft Review 16-30
The intention was to get this column up on Friday, but a hectic schedule prevented that. Back on track for this week, it's better a few days late than never. Next week I'll get back to the standard column format and reviewing callups.

The second fifteen players in this draft review naturally takes a back seat to the first fifteen, but this column has included top prospects such as Joba Chamberlain, Max Scherzer, Travis Snider, and Madison Bumgarner over the last two years. In a draft with plenty of dissention in ranking a relatively weak high school class, this year's second set of prospects is more intriguing even if it doesn't posses quite the upside of year's past. In addition to the 16-30th ranked prospects, I'm also listing the next five players to just miss the cut at the bottom of the column. Lastly, the 2006 and 2007 versions of this column can be found in the archives.

Rule 4 Draft Outlook

Fantasy Rank. Name – Position, Team - Actual Round-Pick (Overall)

16. David Cooper – 1B, Blue Jays – 1.17 (17th)

A freshman at Cal State Fullerton in 2006, Cooper transferred to Cal as a sophomore and had a very promising season with a .382 batting average, 12 homers, and more walks (30) than strikeouts (21). A surprisingly thick, 6'1", 190 pound left-hander, Cooper projected to have more power than that, but his pure hitting skills were impressive. A solid Cape Cod season followed with a .284 average and two homers in 69 at-bats. However, Cooper's power finally had a true breakout while back at Cal, as he smacked 19 homers while hitting .359 with a 35/37 K/BB ratio.

Cooper has a very smooth, powerful swing from the left side that includes plenty of natural loft. He's hit for nice averages the last two seasons for Cal and doesn't strike out often, but he'll probably hit too many fly balls to be more than a .280 hitter in the majors. However, since he has legitimate 30 homer power and a very strong approach at the plate, Cooper is a good bet to be a valuable big league first basemen.

17. Conor Gillaspie – 3B, Giants – 1A.7 (37th)

Gillaspie looked like a potential mid-round selection during his first two years at Wichita State, hitting for solid averages with gap power and a fair idea at the plate. However, Gillaspie had a big breakout in the Cape Cod league last summer, leading it in batting average (.345) and slugging percentage (.673) while smacking 12 doubles and seven homers. He was eventually crowned the league's MVP, and the performance with wood bats was quite a shocking development for an afterthought like Gillaspie. However, he continued his breakout while back at Wichita State this spring, batting .419 with 16 doubles, eight triples, and 11 homers while posting an excellent 22/38 K/BB ratio.

A solid, 6'1" 200-pound left-handed hitting third basemen, Gillaspie is as pure a hitter as you'll find. He's got an excellent idea of the strike zone, can hit the ball with authority to any part of the park, and has a quick yet controlled swing. It'd be surprising if he wasn't a .300 hitter at the major league level. Though he showed good power at the Cape Cod league last summer, he still profiles as more of a doubles hitter in the majors and will likely top out in the teens as far as homers go. He'll also throw in a few steals (he swiped 16 bags in 18 tries this season), though he may have to move to left field because of poor defense at third base.

18. Shooter Hunt – RHP, Twins – 1A.1 (31st)

A potential Top 15 pick earlier this spring, Hunt lasted until the first pick of the supplemental first round. The 6'3", 200 pound right-hander entered the season as one of college baseball's best arms thanks to a sophomore season for Tulane in which he posted a 2.62 ERA and 104/30 K/BB in 99 2/3 innings. His ERA was similar as a junior at 2.68, but the shape of his performance was different. Hunt was dominant in the early going of the season, then struggled in April and May and ended up walking 56 batters in 100 2/3 innings. On the positive side he improved his strikeout rate with 126 punchouts and also allowed just 62 hits, highlighting just how tough he is to make solid contact against.

The questions with Hunt are if he can improve his command and just how unhittable can he be. Hunt does have one of the better curves in the class and his fastball sits in the low-90s with good movement, but he hasn't needed his changeup much and that makes it a big unknown. He'll need to develop at least a passable one to keep big league hitters honest. There's nothing terribly wrong with his delivery that would limit command, so perhaps professional pitching instructors can help in that regard. I tend to think Hunt will be more hittable than people expect but will make up for it with better command, though it's very much a roll of the dice here. I don't view the late season slump as much of an issue and Hunt has No. 2 starter upside, so feel free to gamble on him earlier than the Twins did.

19. Andrew Cashner – RHP, Cubs – 1.19 (19th)

A junior at TCU who had pitched for a junior college the previous two seasons, 2008 marks the fourth time Cashner has been drafted by a big league club. The Braves, Rockies, and Cubs all couldn't sign him in years past, but the Cubs should get the job done this time. A former starter, Cashner converted to a relief role this spring and saw his stock shoot through the roof. He went from topping out at 92 to hitting 98, and his fastball regularly sits at 95-96 in games now. The results were also there, as Cashner posted a 2.34 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings.

In addition to his fastball, Cashner has a plus slider that is one of the toughest breaking pitches in the draft when it's on. Though he has a nice, smooth delivery that generates velocity easily, command often eludes him, especially with the slider. He walked 27 batters during those 54 1/3 innings this year, and it wasn't an infrequent sight to see him bounce a pitch or completely lose one that isn't anywhere near the strike zone. It's a flaw that could be corrected, but it adds some uncertainty to Cashner's projection.

The Cubs are open to the idea of moving Cashner back to the rotation, but that seems like a poor idea. His velocity only came once in a relief role, he doesn't have a third pitch, his approach is to simply blow the opposition away, and his command still needs significant work. Roll all that up and you have someone destined for relief work. Despite the negatives, Cashner's electric stuff and quality delivery mean he'll be a closer down the road with simply moderate improvement in his command. He'll have to battle Carlos Marmol and perhaps Kerry Wood, but Cashner could be ready for the majors late this season and capable of holding down the closer's role in 2010.

20. Aaron Hicks – OF, Twins – 1.14 (14th)

A pitcher and center fielder for his California high school squad, Hicks says he prefers to hit and the Twins announced him as an outfielder when he was selected on draft day. With a fastball that can reach 97 MPH, Hicks may well have been selected as a pitcher without those comments and it does provide a fallback if his career as a hitter doesn't work out. Quickly signed by the Twins after the draft, Hicks has already reported for action in the Gulf Coast League and is 3-for-9 with three strikeouts so far.

A lean 6'2" switch-hitter who weighs in at just 170 pounds, Hicks is a true five-tool player. His bat is very quick from both sides of the plate, but he'll need considerable refinement if he's ever going to be more than a passable hitter. Still, the potential for a Torii Hunter type of bat is there. Add in his excellent arm and plus speed, and it's easy to see why Hicks gets scouts drooling. Perhaps he'll never learn to hit for both average and power, but he should get to the majors anyway because of his speed and defense. Since he has 20-homer and 30-steal upside, he's an attractive if not risky flier.

21. Gerrit Cole – RHP, Yankees – 1.28 (28th)

It's a weak year for high school arms, which leads to less of a consensus among which ones should and shouldn't go in the first round or so. While Ethan Martin emerged as the consensus top prep arm in the draft, who ends up ranked second on that list is wide open. Though he's unrefined, Cole has as much upside as any arm in the draft and is thus worth a strong look this high in a year without many arms providing both potential and reliability.

A big 6'3" right-hander from a southern California high school, Cole has two electric pitches. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and has touched 98 MPH to go along with plenty of movement, and his tight curve looks like a potential plus pitch more often that not. The issues with Cole are that he lacks consistency with his command, and his delivery is far from clean. He could do a better job of using his lower half to put less pressure on his arm and improve consistency, and the abrupt ending to his delivery is also hindering his command and adds to the injury concerns. Still, Cole ranks near the top of any draft in pure stuff, and he would have been selected higher were it not for the presence of Scott Boras.

22. Reese Havens – SS, Mets – 1.22 (22nd)

An intriguing prospect that never put it together during his first two years at South Carolina, Havens finally showed some promise by hitting .315 with five homers in the Cape last summer. That breakout followed him back to South Carolina this season, as Havens posted by far his best year with a .359/.486/.645 mark that included 18 homers and a 44/58 K/BB mark. That he struggled mightily against both left-handers (.238/.384/.488) and Friday starters (.231/.333/.385) are enough to give serious pause, but he was so good the rest of the time they may be more noise than red flags.

A 6'1", 200-pound left-handed hitting shortstop, Havens has a balanced all-around game at the plate. He doesn't project to hit .300 or smack 30 homers, but he could hit .280 with 20 homers and plenty of walks if his struggles with lefties and Friday starters prove moot. He wasn't likely to stay at shortstop anyway, and he'll surely move off the position now that he's on the Mets and blocked by Jose Reyes. Third base is also blocked thanks to David Wright, so Havens' future now lies at second base. That he won't steal many bases will limit his value, but above average power from a weak position would give him plenty of utility.

23. Zach Collier – OF, Phillies – 1A.4 (34th)

Collier isn't your typical raw high school outfielder, as his game is more refined than most and his best asset is his bat as opposed to overall athleticism. A late riser, Collier likely would have gone higher in the draft if he had looked as good as he did this spring as a junior. Instead, he fell to the supplemental round, and the Phillies may have a potential bargain.

A 6'2", 180-pound left-hander, Collier has a quick stroke that's currently built for plenty of line drives. The strength and aptitude are there for him to add more home run power as he fills out and tweaks his approach at the plate. While he has the potential to swipe 15 bags per season, Collier's primary value will come in the form of batting average and average to above average power for an outfielder. Playing half his games at Citizens Bank Park also helps, and that Collier will spend all of next season as an 18-year-old in the minors means he's young for his class.

24. Tyler Ladendorf – SS, Twins – 2.14 (60th)

A ranking not for the faint of heart, Ladendorf is a pure upside pick from a premium position. A 34th round pick by the Yankees coming out of high school and a 34th round pick by the Giants after his freshman year at Howard Junior College last season, Ladendorf shot up 32 rounds thanks to a dominant 2008 campaign. While he hit .425 with a whopping 65 steals in as many attempts last year, Ladendorf added 15 pounds and displayed more power as a sophomore. The 6'0", right-hander hit a ridiculous .542 while increasing his home run output from 1 to 16, and his plus plus base stealing remained intact as he swiped 32 bags in 33 attempts.

Questions are abound with Ladendorf as he tries to translate to the minors. While his bat looked strong against inferior competition, it's a big risk assuming it will play against professional pitching. His glove is also a question, though there's a good chance he can stay at short. That the Twins certainly are in a position where they can, and should, give him every opportunity to prove he can remain there is a plus for his value. If he can stay at short and his bat develops into at least a passable tool, his 40 steal potential gives him immense fantasy potential. There's potential for more than a speed-only threat as well, so he's worth a gamble this high.

25. Jake Odorizzi – RHP, Brewers – 1A.2 (32nd)

The first thing that stands out when watching Odorizzi is his delivery. And what you notice is that you don't notice anything. His delivery is very clean and extremely consistent, so much so that it's very difficult to pick out a major flaw. One of the main reasons for the exceptional delivery is Odorizzi's athleticism. In addition to being a talented shortstop both at the plate and in the field, Odorizzi is also a well-regarded wide receiver on the football team. The total package means he has as few red flags as you'll see with a prep arm.

Odorizzi's easy delivery allows him to hit the low-90s consistently and touch 95 MPH on his best pitches. He's also shown a good curve and a developing slider and changeup. All four of his pitches could be average at the big league level, but the key to his success will be more consistency with his curve and developing one of the slider or changeup into a third weapon. Odorizzi also has above average command, so he's the type of arm you want to bet on despite the lack of refined secondary offerings.

26. Joshua Fields – RHP, Mariners – 1.20 (20th)

A potential first rounder for last year's draft after a dominant sophomore season in 2006 that saw him post a 1.80 ERA and 56/11 K/BB in 50 innings, Fields fell off as a junior. His fastball losing a little life, his command fading some, and the transition from more of a hard slider to a slower curve were all factors in the down year. However, Fields bounced back early on this year and looked dominant until some struggles in May and June. Overall he has a 3.50 ERA and 62/22 K/BB in 36 innings this season, but that undersells just how dominant he was before those late-season struggles.

Fields' fastball sits in the mid-90s and can he can pump it up to 98 when necessary. His curveball is also a plus pitch, though that he lacks a third pitch means he's destined for the bullpen. His problems with command over the last two seasons are of some concern, and that's likely tied to his max-effort delivery. However, he was better there earlier in his college career, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a pro pitching coach straighten him out. The command problems and late-season struggles should give owners pause, but Fields has top tier closer potential and he could take over for J.J. Putz in 2011.

27. Brett DeVall – LHP, Braves – 1A.10 (40th)

A very comparable player to 2006 second round pick Brett Anderson, DeVall has approach, command, and secondary pitches to spare. A big left-hander at 6'4" and 220 pounds, DeVall can hit the low 90s with his fastball white sitting more often in the high 80s. His slider is a plus pitch for his age group, and his changeup may be the best in the high school class. DeVall also has excellent command of all three pitches, and a long track record in big games has helped the Florida native develop an advanced approach as a pitcher.

I ranked Anderson 15th back in 2006 despite the fact that he was selected 55th overall. DeVall doesn't rank quite as highly, largely because his fastball is just a tick slower and his command, while very good, isn't a plus plus attribute as Anderson's was. Still, DeVall is a very intriguing high school arm and should be a solid No. 3 starter if he translates as expected.

28. Charlie Blackmon – OF, Rockies – 2.25 (72nd)

One of the more intriguing mid-rounders out there, Blackmon was twice drafted as a pitcher back in 2004 and 2005. He signed neither time, and eventually transferred from a junior college to Georgia Tech. Blackmon pitched all of one inning with the team last season before being redshirted, and the Yellow Jackets decided to try him as a position player this spring. The 6'4", 200-pound left-handed responded by being the club's best hitter, batting .396/.469/.564 with eight homers. He was hit by a pitch a whopping 16 times, but more surprising was his 21/20 K/BB. Considering he was focusing solely on pitching for three straight years, that type of bat control and discerning eye were rather impressive and bode well for the future.

Despite a big body at 6'4", Blackmon has plus speed and swiped 25-of-30 bases this past season. That he did some of his best work against Friday starters (.440/.517/.640) is encouraging, and his plus bat speed and smooth swing hint at more power potential than he's shown. He'll turn 22 in less than two weeks, but he hasn't been a hitter for very long and there's plenty of room for improvement here. Landing in Coors Field is quite the boon to his value, but he was already one to watch due to a potential complete fantasy package of batting average, power, and speed. He could take over for Matt Holliday in 2010.

29. Allan Dykstra – 1B, Padres – 1.23 (23rd)

The polar opposite of the Blackmon ranking, Dykstra was slated to get ranked in the teens if he fell into the right situation. I've been a big fan of his potential for the last few years, but now he barely cracks the Top 30 after landing in the homer-suppressing Petco Park.

A well-regarded high school hitter from a San Diego high school, Dykstra (no relation to Lenny) spurned the Red Sox for Wake Forrest after Boston made him a 34th round pick three years ago. His impact in college was both significant and immediate, as Dykstra smacked 15 homers and posted a fantastic 32/51 K/BB in just 55 games as a freshman. He posted similar numbers in each of the next two seasons, though that his batting average never surpassed .324 is a concern for such a powerful slugger. On the plus side, he did hit .308 with good discipline and above average power in the Cape Cod League last summer.

A big left-handed hitting first basemen at 6'5", 230 pounds, Dykstra is extremely patient at the plate but takes a powerful cut when he does see something he can drive. That he played on a poor hitting team meant he had a harder time getting pitches to hit with authority the last two years, but he was more than willing to simply take a walk (62 this year) and let his teammates try and score him. It will be interesting to see how he does on teams where he won't be pitched around so frequently. Though the move to Petco Park does hurt, Dykstra is one of the best power prospects in the draft and hits the ball as far as anyone when he does connect, so perhaps the park effect won't be quite as strong. A better prospect in sim leagues because of his patience, Dykstra's power is enough to be worth a high pick.

30. Mike Montgomery – LHP, Royals – 1A.6 (36th)

A scouts' dream on the mound, Montgomery is a 6'5" left-hander with a projectable frame and a fastball that can touch 94 MPH. Right now he's sitting at around 90, but he's exactly the type of player one can hope for an increase from down the road. The California native has solid command, but it's not an asset at this point. Part of the reason for that is that Mongtomery's delivery isn't smooth and takes quite a bit of effort, ensuring a lack of consistency. Montgomery's slow, low-70s curve and high-70s changeup are both solid if unexciting options at this point. He's your typical high-risk, high-reward prep arm.

The Next Five

31. Casey Kelly – SS/RHP, Red Sox – 1.30 (30th)
32. Jason Castro – C, Astros – 1.10 (10th)
33. Eric Thames – OF, Blue Jays – 7.17 (219th)
34. Shane Peterson – OF, Cardinals – 2.13 (59th)
35. Xavier Avery – OF, Orioles – 2.4 (50th)

[Hache Man]

Wins, ERA can be deceptive
Traditional pitching statistics — wins, losses, ERA — have limited value as leading indicators for a change in performance. A deeper look at component skills, situational trends and even the regression of random events can reveal more intriguing possible futures. Here are a few:

* All it took was a no-hitter to elevate our expectations for Clay Buchholz. So it was somewhat disappointing to see his 5.53 ERA through mid-May, and subsequent DL trip and demotion. While some may view these events as a normal blip for a developing pitcher, our optimism should be undeterred.

In the small 42 inning 2008 sample, Buchholz was still striking out more than a batter per inning. He allowed home runs in only two of his eight starts. His batting average on balls in play was .380, and a startling .490 over his final four starts, a level that will regress, further helping improve his ERA. With a 2.00 ERA over six starts in Class A, Buchholz could have a huge impact in the second half.

* A.J. Burnett is another talented arm whose skills belie his current 5.00-plus ERA. While it's tough to see beyond the two eight-run disasters in his last three starts — those outings alone have inflated his ERA by a full run — they were his only poor starts since early April. Meanwhile, his 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings rate and 2.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio remain solid, and his .350 BABIP and 64% strand rate point to an ERA correction.

* Roy Oswalt posted ERAs above 5.00 in both April and May, an uncharacteristic start for the Houston ace. June has been better and his ERA has improved to 4.84, but what does the rest of the season hold? Good news, it seems. After striking out just six batters per nine innings over the first two months, he's pushed his strikeout rate to 8.5 in June. His strikeout/walk rate is now an elite-level 3.0. And he's managed to post a 3.08 ERA in June despite a .360 BABIP. As that regresses, his ERA could improve even more.

* C.C. Sabathia may become the subject of trade talks as the Indians decide whether they will be buyers or sellers next month. While his contract status is a determining factor in that decision, it is important to note what he has done since his April debacle. Since posting a 13.50 ERA in his first four starts, he has a 2.15 ERA over 88 innings. He is striking out more than a batter per inning and posting a strikeout/walk rate near 4.0. He could well make another Cy Young run.

* Andy Sonnanstine was a popular sleeper coming into 2008 but has disappointed thus far with a 4.92 ERA despite an 8-3 record for the Rays. He may be a bit more of a long shot, but his current 5.8 strikeout rate has been boosted by a 7.6 mark over the past month, along with continued pinpoint control. His workload has been monitored thus far — only four 100-pitch outings in his 15 starts and only one since April 30 — setting him up for sustained productivity in the second half.

* It is odd to find a pitcher with an 11-4 record and 3.23 ERA on a list of potential surgers, but Brandon Webb's leading indicators point to even better days ahead. His fantasy owners may be worried about the 5.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in June, but a lowly 55% strand rate is to blame, thanks in part to the Diamondbacks bullpen. Webb's skills remain elite, and he could still finish with an ERA of less than 3.00 for the first time since 2003.

[Hache Man]

Impact of new managers
From the presidential race to the baseball diamond, the word of the week is: change. Whether it's a different leadership philosophy, an effort to reverse a downward trend or an attempt to increase productivity, major changes are being put into action.

In less than a week, three major league teams shook up their coaching staffs, their front offices or both in an effort to turn around sagging fortunes.

Shockwaves are reverberating through the fantasy world as well.

Meet the new Mets, same as the old Mets

The New York Mets' firing of Willie Randolph as manager is probably the least significant of these moves from a fantasy standpoint. The Mets needed something to jolt the club out of its state of mediocrity, and Randolph's ouster was their answer.

After finishing in the top four in the National League in runs scored each of the past two seasons, the Mets are in the middle of the pack this year. There's still plenty of talent on the roster, and interim skipper Jerry Manuel isn't likely to try anything radical outside of encouraging Carlos Beltran to run a little more often.

Beltran and Jose Reyes are already doing a decent job of getting on base and scoring, David Wright is on pace for more than 25 homers and close to 125 RBI, and Johan Santana is putting up numbers that should translate into a better won-lost record than last year's 15-13. But outside of a few acquisitions, the Mets are similar to the team that has come up short the past two seasons.

Net effect: Expect a slight uptick in production across the board, which can probably be attributed to the law of averages more than Manuel's decision-making. Wright and Santana have histories of performing better in the second half of the season.

Turn back the clock in Toronto

With John Gibbons out and Cito Gaston returning to manage the Blue Jays, there's some hope for a return to the glory years under Gaston when the team won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992-93.

Pitching is a strong point with Roy Halladay anchoring the rotation, Shaun Marcum (who just went on the disabled list) surprising, and Dustin McGowan and A.J. Burnett showing occasional flashes of brilliance. Toronto also has one of the best bullpens in the game.

Unfortunately, the underachieving Blue Jays have one of the least potent offenses in the majors. Only one American League team (the Seattle Mariners) had a lower slugging percentage, while expected monster seasons from Alex Rios and Vernon Wells have yet to materialize.

True to form, the Jays lost 1-0 in 12 innings to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates in their first game with Gaston at the helm.

So what can Gaston do for this year's team? It's hard to draw too many parallels from his previous stint in Toronto from 1989 to 1997. But a manager tends to have a certain philosophy in terms of making out his lineup card and handling his pitchers.

During Gaston's first stint, he tended to go with a set lineup most of the time instead of mixing and matching. Of course, that's pretty easy to do when you can send John Olerud, Roberto Alomar, Devon White and Joe Carter out there every day.

Now, Gaston has more decisions to make. Will Rod Barajas continue to catch most every day now that Gregg Zaun is healthy? Will Brad Wilkerson get most of the starts in left field, even when Shannon Stewart (a member of Gaston's Jays from 1995 to '97) returns from the disabled list? What about Adam Lind, who was hitting above .300 at Class AAA and was called up to take Kevin Mench's spot on the roster?

And if one player starts to outperform everyone else in left, will Gaston prefer a more regular lineup the way he did more than a decade ago?

One change might come in the stolen-base department. Led by the trade deadline acquisition of Rickey Henderson, Gaston's Jays led the AL in steals in their title-winning 1993 season. This year's Jays were among the least efficient teams in the major leagues in terms of stolen-base percentage. If the offense continues to struggle, look for Gaston to pick his spots better than Gibbons did and give the green light more often to Rios, Wells and even David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro to get the offense going.

Another tendency in Gaston's past is splitting save opportunities. He had Tom Henke and Duane Ward close games in the early '90s. Although B.J. Ryan is the team's current closer, left-hander Scott Downs hadn't given up a run since April 30. It wouldn't be a stretch to see Gaston give Ryan, who's coming off Tommy John elbow surgery, an occasional breather in save situations. Last season's fill-in closer,Jeremy Accardo, could also return before the All-Star break.

Net effect: Rios and Wells will still have to carry the team offensively. Look for the Jays to try to manufacture more runs and hope the pitching staff remains solid. Lind is likely the best long-term solution to the logjam in left field.

Sonic boom in Seattle

The biggest shake-up last week occurred in Seattle, where the Mariners axed general manager Bill Bavasi and fired manager John McLaren a few days later.

Several roster changes followed almost immediately, and more could be on the way.

With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jeff Clement is behind the plate. Before he was fired, McLaren implied that Clement would get the bulk of the starts at catcher and a real opportunity to show he can play at the major league level. But McLaren didn't keep the job long enough to put those words into practice.

Jim Riggleman's first lineup card as interim manager had Clement catching, Richie Sexson at first base and — with the game in an NL park — no designated hitter. In fact, the Mariners won't get their DH back until June 30 when interleague play is done for the season. In the meantime, Jose Vidro will see his role reduced to pinch-hitting. Despite paltry on-base and slugging percentages, Vidro hit in the No. 2 or 3 spots in the order under McLaren.

That figured be one of the first things Riggleman addressed. Indeed, in his first game as manager, Riggleman put Jose Lopez in the No. 2 spot. With Vidro out of the lineup, Raul Ibanez hit third and Adrian Beltre batted cleanup. The result was a 10-2 victory at the Atlanta Braves.

Sexson, who has lost his once-productive bat, is in danger of being designated for assignment or traded if any team is willing to take on his hefty contract. With no extra-base hits since May 24 and a batting average in the low-.200s, Sexson might be difficult to move. Most fantasy owners have already cut Sexson anyway. Only a change of scenery could make him roster-worthy again.

Many thought a move to a spacious home park would make Erik Bedard one of the top pitchers in the AL this season. For whatever reason, that hasn't happened. Bedard has left several of his starts early. During his most recent start, he left after three scoreless innings because of back spasms.

It will be tough for the Mariners to admit trading five players (including Adam Jones and George Sherrill) to the Baltimore Orioles for Bedard was a mistake. They'll likely look to see what he'll bring on the trade market, but he's one of only a few players on the team with trade value.

Once the Mariners finish deciding who's staying and who's going, the rebuilding process can begin. A glimpse of the future could be found in 21-year-old outfielder Michael Saunders, who was recently promoted to Class AAA Tacoma (Wash.). Now that Ichiro Suzuki has been shifted to right field (a move he endorsed and one that should improve his offensive production), there's an open spot in center. Willie Bloomquist and Jeremy Reed aren't great options, but Saunders could be if given time to develop.

Net effect: The Mariners should start looking at younger players such as Clement and Saunders, see if they can get anywhere close to the package of prospects they gave up to get Bedard and then build around their two bona fide stars, Suzuki and Felix Hernandez.

[Hache Man]

Will AL breakouts continue?
By Brent Hershey and Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

Following up last week's look at 2008 breakout players and the likelihood of their continued success in the National League, we take the same approach with American League breakouts:

* Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers: What stands out to us is his bat. Traded to the AL during the offseason, he has exceeded even the most optimistic projections, hitting .312 with 19 homers and 76 RBI entering the week and producing $39 in Rotisserie value. Is this a temporary hot streak, or has a new Roto stud been born?

Count us convinced. Not only has Hamilton bypassed the adjustment stage that sometimes snags hitters who switch leagues (Miguel Cabrera, we're looking at you), he has improved several important facets of his game. One criticism was problems with contact: 22% of his 2007 at-bats ended with strikeouts. In 2008, he's cut that rate to 17%.

A second shortcoming was Hamilton couldn't handle left-handed pitching; his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) against southpaws in 2007 was a worrisome .588. Those concerns have been eased this season, as he's attacked all pitching with aplomb: .842 OPS vs. left-handers and .976 OPS vs. righties.

Remember that his 2007 was riddled with wrist and stomach injuries, but there have been no signs of health issues so far. We project his pace will slow slightly in the second half, but a .309-18-60 output from Monday through the end of the season should make many a fantasy owner happy. Though he missed significant development time with his off-the-field distractions, Hamilton is only 26 and has a bright future. He's a rare slugger with top-shelf batting average and skills.

* Joe Saunders, LHP, Los Angeles Angels: Hard to believe, but at the beginning of spring training Saunders was in a battle with Ervin Santana for the last rotation spot. As injuries wreaked havoc on the staff this spring, Saunders seized a starting job and has not looked back. He had won a team-leading 11 of his first 15 starts and was sporting a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. That's $23 of Roto value.

Saunders has a couple of things going right for him. His walk rate had improved (only 25 walks in 101 innings), and he's shown increased stamina. He had completed at least seven innings in nine of his starts. Those two factors might be sustainable, but there are warning signs.

Saunders' strikeout rate has declined this season to 4.4 per nine innings pitched, far below the 6.0 we consider the benchmark for continued success. And, most important, he had limited batters to a .240 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Research has shown that .300 is the league average, and, as over time, a pitcher's figure will regress toward that mean. More hits per balls in play will result in a higher ERA.

A career year is within sight for Saunders, no doubt. With 11 wins already and pitching for a first-place Angels club, he should have no trouble reaching 17-19 wins. But our projections for the remainder of the season are cool for the averages: 4.07 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.

* David Murphy, OF, Rangers: Murphy is one of the season's "where did he come from?" stories. Though he hit .343 in 105 late-season at-bats in 2007, not many projected Murphy as anything more than a fourth outfielder, much less a $22 contributor with 10 home runs and 51 RBI in late June. Owners who rostered Murphy for minimal cost have turned a nice profit.

Murphy's minor league track record suggests neither outstanding power nor impressive batting average ability. In the majors, he hasn't taken many walks (17 through 296 at-bats this season), and as the season goes on, pitchers will learn he'll chase balls out of the strike zone. But he had hit 21 doubles to go along with his 10 homers, so his power is developing. In addition, Murphy contributes a dash of speed (five steals in seven attempts), which adds to his value.

Though there's no impending sign of a second-half slump, we expect Murphy to slow down his pace and finish at .271-18-87-9, or about a $13 player. Though that amounts to a valuable asset given his draft slot or auction price, the absence of any one outstanding skill in his profile limits his long-term upside. The 26-year-old is unlikely to develop into a star.

* Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox: Quentin was supposed to anchor right field for the Arizona Diamondbacks for the next decade. But because of the Diamondbacks' wealth of talent and Quentin's 2007 season-long shoulder injury (and .214 batting average), he was deemed expendable and dealt to the White Sox.

All he has done since is fulfill his promise and more. His 17 home runs tied him for second in the AL and his overall productivity had yielded $29 in Roto value. But given his potential coming up through the minors, there is really no surprise here, except perhaps that he's reached this level so soon. This will be his first full major league season.

With a 13% walk rate, 83% contact rate and .392 on-base percentage, Quentin has lived up to the advanced hype.

He was on pace for 35-40 home runs, but odds are that will tail off a bit in the second half as opposing pitchers adjust. We have him projected for a 30-homer, 100-plus RBI season. However, his fly-ball rate over three seasons — 38% in 2006, 41% in '07, 45% in '08 — paints a picture of a still-developing power source. Forty homers are probably not far off.

* George Sherrill, LHP, Baltimore Orioles: A piece of the Erik Bedard trade, Sherrill has burst upon the closer scene with 25 saves, more than that of established divisionmates Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon. His 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP had returned $32 in Rotisserie value. It seems the transition from setup man has gone smoothly.

But there are several red flags. First, much like Saunders, Sherrill was benefiting from a fortunate BABIP (.230) that was artificially suppressing his ERA. As with the starting pitchers, his BABIP will eventually correct itself and Sherrill's ERA will rise.

Second, Sherrill has had trouble with walks this season. Though a hard thrower who gets lots of strikeouts — 32 in nearly 33⅔ innings — Sherrill also goes through stretches when he has trouble finding the plate. In 2008, his walks-per-nine innings rate was 4.8; we generally consider 3.0 as the maximum acceptable rate. Handing out more than one free pass every other inning is tough for a successful closer to overcome.

Third, a whopping 61% of batted balls against Sherrill were fly balls. High rates like this often lead to more home runs allowed — never a good thing for a ninth-inning specialist who is expected to shut the door.

Since a closer's value is so much about opportunity, Sherrill's job is not in jeopardy, but we anticipate a tougher balance of the season. Sherrill has shown exceptional skills, so his long-term value is positive if he reduces both his walks and fly balls allowed.

[Hache Man]

Volquez vanquished
There's never really been any question about the quality of Matt Garza's stuff. The only concerns have surrounded his ability to trust in and command that stuff. He was able to do both yesterday as he pitched the first complete game of his career, a one-hitter against the Marlins.

Garza took a no-hitter into the seventh before Hanley Ramirez hit a leadoff home run to simultaneously break up the bids for a no-no and a shutout. Garza recovered to set down the last nine Marlins in order, and ended up facing just one batter over the minimum in the complete-game gem.

The 24-year-old right-hander struck out 10 in the game, mixing in some nasty breaking balls with a dominating fastball that consistently registered between 93-96 mph. His lone "mistake" in the game, the pitch Ramirez took deep, was a sharp slider that was nearly in the dirt. It's this type of brilliance that made Garza one of baseball's top prospects as he rocketed through the minors back in 2006, and that prompted the Rays to trade for him during the offseason.

Garza caused some panic early in the season when he went on the disabled list due to a nerve problem in his elbow which had reportedly bothered him last year in Minnesota, but he's been very good since returning from the DL, going 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA while allowing only 60 hits over 75 2/3 innings. He'll probably continue have some ups and downs this season, but Garza continues to flash the type of excellent potential that makes him one of the game's more intriguing young hurlers.

A few other league notes to send you into the weekend…

* Josh Hamilton is getting bit hard by the injury bug. A couple days ago he had to exit a game against the Astros early due to knee inflammation, and in his return to the lineup on Thursday night he was again forced out early, this time after being hit in the hand by a pitch.

After amazingly driving in 68 runs in his first 60 games, Hamilton has picked up just eight RBI in his last 16 games and it won't help that he's now battling multiple ailments. He should remain productive at the plate, but don't be surprised to see the RBI output continue to tail off.

* Edinson Volquez owners can take the right-hander's poor outing on Thursday night -- 4 1/3 innings, six hits, seven runs (five earned), three walks, zero strikeouts -- as an opportunity to sulk, or as an opportunity to sit back and marvel at just how amazing Volquez has been all season up to this point. In 15 starts prior to the loss against the Blue Jays, Volquez had never failed to complete five innings, had never failed to strike out at least one batter, had never allowed more than three runs, had only once allowed more than a hit per inning, and had given up only three home runs over 95 innings. Volquez has turned a corner and has been an absolute godsend for the Reds this season.

* Albert Pujols was activated from the disabled list and started at designated hitter for the Cardinals on Thursday. He picked up right where he left off by going 4-for-4 with a walk and an RBI. He isn't getting the type of MVP hype that he usually does because Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman have been so spectacular, but Pujols sports an amazing .484 on-base percentage and is having one of his best seasons.

* Sidney Ponson will make his first start as a Yankee today when he faces the Mets in the second game of a doubleheader. Ponson experienced some surprising success with the Rangers this year, going 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA in nine starts. Unfortunately, his off-the-field problems were so grave that even the pitching-starved Rangers couldn't put up with him. The Yankees are desperate enough to give him a chance, but it's tough to imagine that the finicky ownership in the Bronx will put up with too much of that type of behavior, particularly if his performance declines from where it was earlier in the season (which is likely).

AL Quick Hits: Rich Harden notched 11 strikeouts over eight scoreless inning on Thursday afternoon … Erik Bedard's status for Sunday is still up in the air, and much will depend on how his bullpen session today goes … Jesse Litsch tossed eight innings of one-run ball on Thursday night, improving to 8-4 … Francisco Liriano had a second consecutive poor outing for Class-AAA Rochester on Wednesday night, surrendering five earned runs while striking out only three over 5 1/3 innings … Cliff Lee fanned a career-high 11 batters while picking up his 11th win in a brilliant effort against the Giants on Thursday … Hank Blalock is thought to be about two weeks from returning to the Rangers lineup.
atlantabraves.com
NL Quick Hits: Ian Snell was placed on the disabled list retroactive to June 24 with an elbow strain … Mark Hendrickson surrendered five runs over 4 1/3 innings on Thursday afternoon and suffered his fourth straight loss … Clayton Kershaw lasted only four innings against the White Sox on Thursday afternoon, allowing just two runs but struggling with his control … One day after announcing that Shawn Chacon was suspended indefinitely after an altercation with general manager Ed Wade, the Astros released the embattled right-hander on Thursday … Alfonso Soriano (broken hand) hopes to return in time to participate in the All-Star Game … Carlos Zambrano threw off flat ground on Thursday and is scheduled for a bullpen session on Sunday as he works back from a shoulder injury … The Nationals have placed Shawn Hill on the disabled list and it's not clear how long he'll be out. newyorkmets.com

[Hache Man]

Ortiz Sets a Timetable
Your regular Daily Dose columnist Aaron Gleeman has gone missing, and is presumed dead or on vacation. I'll be filling in for him for the next couple days, so please try and bear with me. Now, on to business:

David Ortiz hit off a tee for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, taking 25 soft swings at Fenway Park, and told reporters afterward that he thinks he's still about 2-3 weeks away from returning to the Red Sox lineup. Ortiz said that the pain in his injured left wrist had improved, but noted that he still felt it "a little bit."

Ortiz injured the wrist on a routine swing back on May 31. The injury was not initially believed to be serious, but an MRI revealed a partially torn tendon which put him in a cast for a few weeks. Recovery has been slow, but the fact that he's able to swing a bat is a good sign, and if he is indeed able to return in three weeks that would put him back with the Red Sox right after the All-Star break, which is precisely the point many had speculated he might return.

The Sox have been doing just fine without Ortiz, going 15-8 in June without his services, but the team undoubtedly looks forward to the slugging designated hitter's return to the lineup. Ortiz's absence presents no real problems while Boston is playing its next three games in Houston; when the Red Sox return to AL competition, they will continue to stick with their current Ortiz-less alignment, which consists of Manny Ramirez at DH with both Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury starting in the outfield.

Here are a few other notes from around the league…

* Some bad -- if predictable -- news on the Felix Hernandez front. Mariners interim manager John Riggleman said Wednesday that his team is "not counting on Felix for Sunday." Hernandez and the team initially seemed optimistic about the right-hander making his next scheduled start after leaving Monday night's game against the Mets due to an ankle injury suffered in a collision at home plate. Yet, considering the amount of visible pain that Hernandez was in as he walked off the field, and the fact that he was wearing a walking boot the next morning, such an expedient return seemed awfully unlikely.

There are no signs at this point that Hernandez will miss any significant length of time, but if he does, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey will probably retain a spot in the rotation for a while. Dickey's spot may have been safe anyway after Miguel Batista was shelled by the Mets last night.

* The Astros announced yesterday that they have suspended Shawn Chacon indefinitely after the starter had a physical altercation with general manager Ed Wade. Reportedly, Wade had some harsh words for Chacon, who had recently been demoted from the rotation to the bullpen, and the pitcher flipped his lid, grabbing the 52-year-old GM by the neck and throwing him to the ground. (Shades of Pedro Martinez/Don Zimmer?)

The Astros might trade Chacon, but he probably doesn't have much value. With a 9.35 ERA over his last four starts and little chance of rebounding to be even an average starter, Chacon held minimal fantasy value anyway.

* The red-hot Twins have won eight straight games and 10 of their last 11, and they've done so without a whole lot of help from their leadoff hitter. Carlos Gomez went 3-for-4 with two stolen bases and two RBI in last night's win over the Padres, but prior to that he had been batting .228/.260/.293 with one home run, three RBI and only one steal in 21 June games. Gomez had started the season by stealing 16 bases on 18 attempts in his first 32 games, but since that point he had gone just 2-for-8 on steals over 40 games entering last night's contest. With his top-notch speed and ability to hit for power, Gomez can be a major fantasy asset when he's on. He's shown to be a very streaky player this season, so perhaps last night's strong performance bodes well for his owners.

AL Quick Hits: Carl Crawford homered twice in a blowout win over the Marlins last night, and is 13-for-28 with three homers since returning from a six-game suspension … Joba Chamberlain fanned seven over 6 2/3 scoreless frames while earning his first win as a starter Wednesday night … Bobby Abreu went 3-for-5 with his 10th homer on Wednesday, and is on pace to reach 20 homers in a season for the first time since 2005 … Travis Hafner is scheduled to undergo a series of tests this weekend as the Indians seek to set a timetable for his return from a shoulder injury … Carlos Guillen had four hits in Detroit's win on Wednesday, including his first home run since June 7 … Hank Blalock's hand remains swollen after he aggravated an injury to it swinging in a minor-league game on Sunday, and it is completely unclear when he will be able to return to the Rangers lineup … The Tigers placed Brandon Inge on the disabled list retroactive to June 23 with a pulled oblique muscle.

NL Quick Hits: Kosuke Fukudome missed Wednesday's game with tightness in his calf, but isn't expected to miss any more time … Chase Utley broke out of a 1-for-29 slump with four hits on Wednesday, but has homered only once in the past three weeks ... David Wright hit a pair of homers on Wednesday night after going long just once in his first 21 June games … Bud Black says that Josh Bard will be out of the Padres' lineup for at least another two weeks … Barry Zito held the Indians to one run over 6 2/3 inning on Wednesday and, for the first time all season, did not issue a walk … Eric Gagne tossed a perfect inning for Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday night and may return to the Brewers bullpen this weekend … Jose Campillo allowed just two runs over seven innings on Wednesday to earn his first win in the month of June … Omar Infante left Wednesday's game in the second inning due to an apparent hamstring injury … Jerry Manuel would not rule out the possibility of a demotion for Oliver Perez after the left-hander was knocked around by the Mariners on Tuesday night to raise his ERA to 5.29.

[Hache Man]

Garza's Gem
There's never really been any question about the quality of Matt Garza's stuff. The only concerns have surrounded his ability to trust in and command that stuff. He was able to do both yesterday as he pitched the first complete game of his career, a one-hitter against the Marlins.

Garza took a no-hitter into the seventh before Hanley Ramirez hit a leadoff home run to simultaneously break up the bids for a no-no and a shutout. Garza recovered to set down the last nine Marlins in order, and ended up facing just one batter over the minimum in the complete-game gem.

The 24-year-old right-hander struck out 10 in the game, mixing in some nasty breaking balls with a dominating fastball that consistently registered between 93-96 mph. His lone "mistake" in the game, the pitch Ramirez took deep, was a sharp slider that was nearly in the dirt. It's this type of brilliance that made Garza one of baseball's top prospects as he rocketed through the minors back in 2006, and that prompted the Rays to trade for him during the offseason.

Garza caused some panic early in the season when he went on the disabled list due to a nerve problem in his elbow which had reportedly bothered him last year in Minnesota, but he's been very good since returning from the DL, going 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA while allowing only 60 hits over 75 2/3 innings. He'll probably continue have some ups and downs this season, but Garza continues to flash the type of excellent potential that makes him one of the game's more intriguing young hurlers.

A few other league notes to send you into the weekend…

* Josh Hamilton is getting bit hard by the injury bug. A couple days ago he had to exit a game against the Astros early due to knee inflammation, and in his return to the lineup on Thursday night he was again forced out early, this time after being hit in the hand by a pitch.

After amazingly driving in 68 runs in his first 60 games, Hamilton has picked up just eight RBI in his last 16 games and it won't help that he's now battling multiple ailments. He should remain productive at the plate, but don't be surprised to see the RBI output continue to tail off.

* Edinson Volquez owners can take the right-hander's poor outing on Thursday night -- 4 1/3 innings, six hits, seven runs (five earned), three walks, zero strikeouts -- as an opportunity to sulk, or as an opportunity to sit back and marvel at just how amazing Volquez has been all season up to this point. In 15 starts prior to the loss against the Blue Jays, Volquez had never failed to complete five innings, had never failed to strike out at least one batter, had never allowed more than three runs, had only once allowed more than a hit per inning, and had given up only three home runs over 95 innings. Volquez has turned a corner and has been an absolute godsend for the Reds this season.

* Albert Pujols was activated from the disabled list and started at designated hitter for the Cardinals on Thursday. He picked up right where he left off by going 4-for-4 with a walk and an RBI. He isn't getting the type of MVP hype that he usually does because Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman have been so spectacular, but Pujols sports an amazing .484 on-base percentage and is having one of his best seasons.

* Sidney Ponson will make his first start as a Yankee today when he faces the Mets in the second game of a doubleheader. Ponson experienced some surprising success with the Rangers this year, going 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA in nine starts. Unfortunately, his off-the-field problems were so grave that even the pitching-starved Rangers couldn't put up with him. The Yankees are desperate enough to give him a chance, but it's tough to imagine that the finicky ownership in the Bronx will put up with too much of that type of behavior, particularly if his performance declines from where it was earlier in the season (which is likely).

AL Quick Hits: Rich Harden notched 11 strikeouts over eight scoreless inning on Thursday afternoon … Erik Bedard's status for Sunday is still up in the air, and much will depend on how his bullpen session today goes … Jesse Litsch tossed eight innings of one-run ball on Thursday night, improving to 8-4 … Francisco Liriano had a second consecutive poor outing for Class-AAA Rochester on Wednesday night, surrendering five earned runs while striking out only three over 5 1/3 innings … Cliff Lee fanned a career-high 11 batters while picking up his 11th win in a brilliant effort against the Giants on Thursday … Hank Blalock is thought to be about two weeks from returning to the Rangers lineup.

NL Quick Hits: Ian Snell was placed on the disabled list retroactive to June 24 with an elbow strain … Mark Hendrickson surrendered five runs over 4 1/3 innings on Thursday afternoon and suffered his fourth straight loss … Clayton Kershaw lasted only four innings against the White Sox on Thursday afternoon, allowing just two runs but struggling with his control … One day after announcing that Shawn Chacon was suspended indefinitely after an altercation with general manager Ed Wade, the Astros released the embattled right-hander on Thursday … Alfonso Soriano (broken hand) hopes to return in time to participate in the All-Star Game … Carlos Zambrano threw off flat ground on Thursday and is scheduled for a bullpen session on Sunday as he works back from a shoulder injury … The Nationals have placed Shawn Hill on the disabled list and it's not clear how long he'll be out. atlantabraves.com