Fantasy Football 09' Q & A

[HotStreak]

Lets share thoughts here to help newbies and hone the skills of seasoned managers. We can always learn from each other.

[HotStreak]

Right off the bat, I'm interested in the process people go through to create their pre- draft ranking lists(cheatsheets).

What factors in the most/least. For me #1 is the scoring system of the league I'm playing in.

[HotStreak]

What is your target round for a QB assuming standard scoring?

[HotStreak]

Lets take a look at the top 25 picks bases on Average Draft Position. The list below covers 225 mock drafts. While no list will be perfect, this gives us a decent feel for where guys are going.

This is standard scoring non-PPR




A lot of new faces in the top 12. Who do you love? Who are you avoiding?
What slot are you hoping to pick form, top 3rd/midle/bottom 3rd?

I prefer to pick from the bottom as it gives you 2 1st round talents to start off with.

[diogee]

Originally Posted by HotStreak

Right off the bat, I'm interested in the process people go through to create their pre- draft ranking lists(cheatsheets).

What factors in the most/least. For me #1 is the scoring system of the league I'm playing in.

Yeah the scoring system is key since the way you rank your players is much different if it is a ppr league. I prefer standard scoring myself since I don't like to read rules too much.

Originally Posted by HotStreak

What is your target round for a QB assuming standard scoring?

I usually grab a qb around the 4th or 5th round unless I can get a standout qb in the 3rd. Always some decent names left at qb with some that could be primed for a breakout year. I love being in leagues where everyone is taking qb's in the 1st round.
I usually grab 2 rb/1wr or 2 wr's/1rb with the first 3 picks.




Will keep an eye on this thread...hopefully can throw in some input sometime when I'm not tired as hell. Maybe some more will jump in as foots nears as well.

[HotStreak]

5th to 8th round seems about right for a QB in a standard scoring format. I feel you give away too much in the popular RB and WR slots by going early for a top 5 QB. After all, only 1 QB contributes to your score. Meanwhile, multiple RB's and WR's score for you.

This thinking changes in a situation where Passing TD's are valued the same as Rush/Rec TD's or the QB gets a bonus per completion. In that case, having a Brees/Manning/Brady will give you an edge over the majority of opponents.

Keep the faith, and PLEASE for the love of god, do not pick a kicker until your last 2 picks!

[HotStreak]

Are you an old school RB/RB first two rounds guy? I play with a few guys who do not stray from this early round strategy.

Over the last 5 years, as the dreaded Running Back By Committee has infested NFL teams, I have leaned toward grabbing an elite WR in round 1 if picking in the bottom 3rd.

I experiment with this strategy through numerous mock drafts, seeing how my team looks when starting out WR/RB/RB/WR or WR/WR/RB/RB as compared to RB/RB/WR/WR. I even throw in a QB in the top 4 rounds once or twice in 10 mock drafts to get an idea where that gets me.

Do you guys spend the time doing mock drafts? I find if you get 10 or so in from early,middle,and late position, you have a great feel for where players are being taken and the depth of over all positions.

[HotStreak]

Through about a dozen mock drafts at this point. AP,Turner,MJD, and Forte are going 1-4 every time. No surprises there.

I have noticed people are down on M. Barber. He has dropped to 3rd round in half of my drafts. People afraid to pull the trigger because of Felix Jones and Choice. I think Barber is in line for a ton of TD's.

Another trend so far is that WR are going off the board fast. With people being uncertain about a lot of RB's, they seem to be gravitating towards the comfort of a #1 WR.

Any news or insight you guys have would be appreciated.

[JeffEaglz]

Each and every year is different. Believe me, I've played for years (and now write about the subject).

This year is the "WR season" - Top 20 WRs are hard to come by, while RBBC (RB by committee) has made all the RBs after the top few (which all have risk this year) worth less. Especially in PPR leagues, getting 2-3 stud WRs and hoping for a 5th-9th RB or two to break out is a contrarian strategy that could pay off big.

I've seen many drafts, particularly towards the back of Round 1, go WR/WR or QB/WR or even Witten/WR or Witten/QB to start the draft while waiting for RBs in Rounds 5-8. The team can look quite good, trust me.

[JeffEaglz]

Is it OK to post free fantasy stuff from other sites?

[HotStreak]

Originally Posted by JeffEaglz

Each and every year is different. Believe me, I've played for years (and now write about the subject).

This year is the "WR season" - Top 20 WRs are hard to come by, while RBBC (RB by committee) has made all the RBs after the top few (which all have risk this year) worth less. Especially in PPR leagues, getting 2-3 stud WRs and hoping for a 5th-9th RB or two to break out is a contrarian strategy that could pay off big.

I've seen many drafts, particularly towards the back of Round 1, go WR/WR or QB/WR or even Witten/WR or Witten/QB to start the draft while waiting for RBs in Rounds 5-8. The team can look quite good, trust me.

I totally agree with this statement Jeff. The bottom of round one to the middle of round four, WR's are going...going...going. When the bottom of round four shows up, your looking at a pile of decent RB2's like Addai, Parker, McFadden, T. Jones, R. Bush, L. White, and once in a while M. Lynch and L. Johnson.

I've done over 30 mock drafts already this year and it is clear, with all the RBBC's and injury concerns or poor previous seasons, people are finding comfort in the WR position this year.

Great analysis. I hope you contribute more.

[Integrity]

HotStreak, I have the 4th pick in an newly formed keeper league. Standard format pretty much.

2 questions for you, if you don't mind:

1. The guy with the top pick is willing to deal. How much would be TOO MUCH to give up for the chance to draft AP?

2. Who would suggest taking? I'm not sure about MJD long-term and I LOVE Deangelo but with J Stew there too, I am thinking maybe Fitz or Brees, especially since this is a keeper league. Your thoughts?

[HotStreak]

Originally Posted by Integrity

HotStreak, I have the 4th pick in an newly formed keeper league. Standard format pretty much.

2 questions for you, if you don't mind:

1. The guy with the top pick is willing to deal. How much would be TOO MUCH to give up for the chance to draft AP?

2. Who would suggest taking? I'm not sure about MJD long-term and I LOVE Deangelo but with J Stew there too, I am thinking maybe Fitz or Brees, especially since this is a keeper league. Your thoughts?

Can you please explain how things will go next season.

Keeper leagues have many formats and the number of players kept as well as how next years draft is slotted can vary greatly.

Some more information will help you get a better answer from the many fantasy guru's here at EOG.

Talk to you soon.

[Integrity]

Well it's a keeper league with 7 keepers and has pretty basic scoring. I can trade picks before the draft and am thinking of moving up for AP, altho paying a big price potentially.

However, I think the value is either Brees or Fitz at num 4 for the long term. Both are near the top of their respective positions are pretty much guaranteed to produce week in and week out. That makes either guy more tempting than the 4th best RB, IMO.

I am expecting the top 3 guys to be AP, Turner and Forte. IF Forte slips to 4, perhaps I consider him, but I'm thinking going against the RB standard may be best.

And next year's draft is slotted based on this year's record...

[HotStreak]

Originally Posted by Integrity

Well it's a keeper league with 7 keepers and has pretty basic scoring. I can trade picks before the draft and am thinking of moving up for AP, altho paying a big price potentially.

However, I think the value is either Brees or Fitz at num 4 for the long term. Both are near the top of their respective positions are pretty much guaranteed to produce week in and week out. That makes either guy more tempting than the 4th best RB, IMO.

I am expecting the top 3 guys to be AP, Turner and Forte. IF Forte slips to 4, perhaps I consider him, but I'm thinking going against the RB standard may be best.

And next year's draft is slotted based on this year's record...

I would not trade up to get AP. Your picks are too valuable, as you are hoarding talent for the future as well as trying to win this year. Keep your 4 spot.

In regards to who to take with the 4th pick. The first thing you need to do is rank players and group them into tiers. A tier is a cluster of players that you expect to score similar fantasy points, it can be as small as 1 player and as large as your projections see fit. Right now, my RB tiers look like this.



From the 4th spot, I am only considering a RB. Looking at my tiers I would take whomever is left from Turner/MJD/Forte. If given the choice of all three, I'm taking Forte as he has is the youngest, providing me the best potential for many years of production in my keeper league.

In the following rounds, I am sticking to my rankings and giving the edge to a player who has more productive years ahead of him. For example, if I was working from my third tier of RB's and the choice between L.Tomlinson, B. Westbrook, and DeAngelo Williams was presented, I'm taking Williams every time in a keeper format.

For more thoughts on how to get the most value out of your tiers, here is a link to an EOG thread where Biggamer3 posts an article written by Royalfan.

http://forums.eog.com/online-sportsb...er-230795.html

You should be trying to win the cash this year, while keeping an eye on the future. Do not get radical in changing from a winning draft strategy. That is how I would approach it.



Hope to hear some other points of view, as I believe I could be convinced to try a strategy that sacrifices the first year in favor of maybe dominating for the next 3 to 5, but I have not thought it through.

Enjoy your season!

[Integrity]

Thanks for this. I have spoken with the guy at 3 and he is taking Turner or Forte so unless the 2nd guy takes MJD, he will be available to me at 4.

I am just not sold as taking MJD 4th overall. Would feel a lil more safer with the top QB or top WR at that point.

I appreciate your breakdown. Perhaps I'll consider Chris Johnson or DeAngelo over Brees or Fitz but I'm thinking I can get Kevin Smith or Ryan Grant in round 2 and if I can get one of them with Brees or Fitz, I'll be in a nice spot. I'm really high on Kevin Smith this year...