[Hache Man]

LT29

Chargers 48, Broncos 20
Game Recap by: Gregg Rosenthal

The Big Story

Remember when the Denver defense was one of the best in the league? After giving up 28 first half points, they surrended 20 more in the fourth quarter. LaDainian Tomlinson, you may have heard, scored three more times to set the NFL record with 29 touchdowns in a season. We are contractually obligated at this point to remind our readers we had Tomlinson ranked first all summer, with LJ number two. Of course Shaun Alexander and Ronnie Brown were third and fourth, but let's forget about that.

Beyond The Box Score

The Broncos did a decent job bottling up Tomlinson (28-103-3, 1-9-0) until garbage time. Of course, they did that at the expense of their pass coverage, which was hammered in single coverage. If Tomlinson is going to be mentioned with Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as a possible MVP, his effect on Philip Rivers is one reason why. And it's ridiculous Manning will probably finish third. Take him away from Indy and they are a 4-12 team.

Philip Rivers (15/23-279-2-0) averaged over 12 yards-per-pass against the Broncos. With Keenan McCardell out, Rivers is using Vincent Jackson (3-95-1) more as a downfield threat. Rivers made great decisions all day and doesn't face an above-average pass defense the rest of the way.

Rivers has finally learned that Antonio Gates (7-104-2) doesn't need to be open to make plays. Both of his touchdowns were on jump balls, the first of which came in double coverage. Gates abused John Lynch for a big chunk of the afternoon and will likely end up finishing this "down year" with 10 touchdowns and over 900 receiving yards. The Chargers were more creative than usual lining Gates up wide left, wide right, in the slot, the backfield, and everywhere in between. You can barely call him a tight end.

The one positive in this game for Denver was the development of Jay Cutler (17/30-188-2-0). The Broncos knew they had to score plenty, so they started the game with a lot of shotgun and four wideout formations. After a rough start, Cutler was 13-of-19 in the second half for 152 yards and two scores. He brought the Broncos to within one score by putting up 17 third quarter points. The talent around Cutler isn't great and he was under a lot of pressure, fumbling three times, but it was a step forward.

Tony Scheffler (3-66-2) caught his first career touchdown in the third quarter of Week 14, then caught his second one 48 seconds later on a tipped pass. The rookie should improve along with Cutler and will play a lot down the stretch.

Tatum Bell (17-116-0, 4-15-0) is over his toe problems. But his lack of field awareness may have cost fantasy owners Sunday. On a 51-yard run, Bell stepped out of bounds as he was going for a certain 75-yard touchdown.

Going Forward

Bell is back to being an every-week start, and Javon Walker (4-52-0) owners have some hope for life after Cutler. Next week's matchup at Arizona should be a good one.

You could do worse than Vincent Jackson if you are looking for a wild card play against the Chiefs next week. Kansas City gives up a lot of big plays and Jackson has great speed.

Bills 31, Jets 13
Game Recap By: Evan Silva

The Big Story

The Bills are like a poor man's Bears, with a defense that creates turnovers, unpredictable quarterback play (although J.P. Losman is playing better than Rex Grossman of late), a sound running game, and scintillating special teams. The Jets had the ball most of the game Sunday but couldn't answer back as the Bills returned an interception 58 yards for a touchdown, Lee Evans caught a 77-yard deep ball for a score, and Brian Moorman put three punts inside the Jets' 20. Chad Pennington accounted for three turnovers and Cedric Houston ran in place as the Jets fell to 7-6.

Beyond the Box Score

Pennington (22-35-182-1-2, 4-19) was off his game, as he couldn't lead long drives while being swarmed by Aaron Schobel (three sacks, nine tackles). Schobel forced Pennington to fumble after a sack near the end of the third quarter. The Bills recovered at the Jets' 18-yard line and Losman connected with Robert Royal (2-13-1) four plays later for a six-yard touchdown to put Buffalo up 28-13 heading to the fourth.

Willis McGahee (16-125-1) missed roughly a quarter and a half due to an illness he later attributed to an empty stomach. When McGahee was on the field, however, he was unstoppable, kicking off the scoring with a first-quarter 57-yard touchdown run and returning in the second half for gains of six, eight, 16, and 11 yards. Had McGahee not been under the weather, he likely would've approached 200. Anthony Thomas (15-42, 3-23) lost a fumble but continues to be the third-down back.

Laveranues Coles (4-67-1) got off to a quick start but faded badly late. Jerricho Cotchery (5-32) remains a possession receiver. Chris Baker (2-17) has 12 receptions since Week 6.

Evans (2-91-1) has developed a tremendous rapport with Losman on deep passes. Peerless Price (2-19) is still vying with Alvis Whitted to be the league's worst No. 2 receiver. Royal caught his 17th pass of the season Sunday.

Cedric Houston (18-50, 1-7) had no room to run as the Bills' leaner, quicker defensive line beat the Jets off the ball most of the day. Leon Washington (7-55, 7-28) was more effective on 11 fewer carries and utilized often as an outlet for Pennington.

Going Forward

Pennington was pulled in favor of Kellen Clemens with less than two minutes remaining but his starting job won't be in jeopardy until the Jets fall out of the playoff picture. Clemens did not attempt a pass. He was sacked by Schobel.

Cardinals 27, Seahawks 21
Game Recap by Aaron Gleeman

The Big Story

The Cardinals jumped out to an early lead and held it until midway through the third quarter, at which point the Seahawks did as most Cardinals opponents have done this season and went up 21-17. However, Arizona then flipped the script on its season, refusing to fall apart after a blown lead and instead scoring 10 straight fourth-quarter points before holding off a last-second Seattle drive for the win.

Beyond the Box Score

Darrell Jackson had a good second half, catching four passes for 52 yards while giving the Seahawks the lead with his NFL-leading 10th touchdown, but left late in the fourth quarter with a toe injury. It's unclear how serious the injury is as of Monday morning, but given Seattle's short week—they play San Francisco Thursday—it seems unlikely that he'll play ready to play at full strength.

Edgerrin James got off to a slow start, but found the end zone after getting a rare goal-line carry and then racked up big yardage when the Cardinals uncharacteristically stuck with the running game late. Running behind an much-improved and revamped offensive line, plus a lot of two-tight end sets, James carried 15 times for 81 yards in the second half, including 42 fourth-quarter yards.

Shaun Alexander gained just 26 yards on nine first-half carries, with FOX reporting that he was "banged up" heading into halftime. Not only did Alexander play in the second half, he carried the ball a ton right off the bat and ended up rushing 13 times for 50 yards after halftime. A late 11-yard run gave him an NFL-record 61 straight games with a 10-yard run, which Barry Sanders held (in fact, if Sanders returns from his retirement and breaks off a 20-yard run, he'll reclaim the record).

It was apparent on handoffs that Matt Hasselbeck had some trouble gripping the ball with his injured left hand, but his bum knee didn't look like a problem as he squirted free of pressure and scrambled for a long first down on third-and-11. Hasselbeck went 10-of-14 in each half and is thriving with all kinds of weapons at his disposal.

Not only was Adrian Wilson all over the field, making several big tackles, including the game-ending stop inches short of the first-down marker, he ripped Nate Burleson for his "applying sunscreen" touchdown celebration.

Going Forward

If Jackson is out Thursday and Bobby Engram remains sidelined, Deion Branch's fantasy stock will rise dramatically. Branch has basically been a WR3 since joining the Seahawks, but would be the clear-cut No. 1 receiver against the 49ers, with D.J. Hackett and Nate Burleson also seeing a value boost.

James was showing signs of life a month ago, but his breakout was delayed when the Cardinals inexplicably decided to abandon the ground game completely for a brief time. Now they're back to running and James has responded with back-to-back 115-yard efforts. In a season that once looked like a lost cause, James could prove to be an asset during the fantasy playoffs with relatively favorable matchups against Denver, San Diego, and San Francisco remaining.

Packers 30, 49ers 19
Game Recap by: Gregg Rosenthal

The Big Story

The Alex Smith sophomore meltdown hit a new low against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. While Brett Favre relieved old glory in San Francisco by finding Donald Driver early and often, the 49ers showed how ridiculous their playoff talk of a few weeks ago was.

Beyond The Box Score

Donald Driver (9-160-1) isn't supposed to have great long speed. But his 68-yard score was his sixth play over 30 yards this season. Driver has snuck into the top-five fantasy wideouts on the year and should keep it rolling next week against the Lions.

Smith (12-29-1-2) has David Carr disease. He's starting taking some 15-step drops and throwing the ball away when he has plenty of time. Smith's decisions weren't really the problem, though. He just underthrew passes and looked tentative all day. On one play, he threw exactly between Vernon Davis and Antonio Bryant when they were both wide open. His interceptions were thrown on plays where the 49ers had open receivers.

Frank Gore (19-130-1, 3-38-0) had a typical Frank Gore game. A 68-yard gain early set up his seventh 100-yard game in 13 weeks. His sixth lost fumble of the year marred his great day. What was very encouraging for Gore owners is that he played in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Maurice Hicks and Michael Robinson were non-factors

Fear the turtle. Vernon Davis (3-74-1, 1-9-0), the former Terrapin, is an absolute mercenary when he gets the ball in his hands. His weaving 52-yard score where he bounced off tacklers made him look like a man among boys. He also had a 35-yard gainer called because of a penalty and was open for a touchdown another time but Alex Smith underthrew him.

Antonio Bryant (1-39-0) didn't start because of a disciplinary measure, likely related to his DUI last month. Bryant later showed his displeasure with Smith's inaccuracy by stomping around the field like a fool.

Going Forward

Vernon Davis is a great pickup in all leagues that still have waivers. Once he learns the nuances of pro football, he'll be a TE1. Otherwise, the 49ers are strictly hands off.

Brett Favre just can't perform against above average defenses. But he's facing Detroit next week, which makes all of the Packers good fantasy plays.

Vernand Morency had seven carries for 69 yards, but most of the yards came in garbage time. He doesn't appear to be a serious threat to Ahman Green.

[Hache Man]

Running on Empty

Think the Colts are having trouble stopping the run? I sure do.

It looks like Jack Del Rio thought so, too, as his Jaguars put an old-school beating on the perennially soft Colts defensive front Sunday in Jacksonville.

The trio of Maurice Jones-Drew-Griffith-Joyner-Kersee, Fred Taylor and Alvin Pearman amassed a ridiculous 368 rushing yards and four TDs in an embarrassing display of how not to defend the run.

The Colts were seen as the AFC favorite prior to this week's display, but not being able to stop the run is about as glaring a weakness as a team can have come playoff time. They won't go anywhere this post-season. You read it here first.

There's fantasy impact here as well. If Indianapolis continues to struggle against the run, they won't have the ball enough to justify starting some of their usually startable players.

I'm downgrading Joseph Addai (11/22; 1/14) from a RB2.5 to a RB3.5. Dominic Rhodes (8/11, TD; 3/18) goes from a RB3.5 to a RB4. Ben Utecht (3/31) becomes borderline unstartable. And Peyton Manning (25/50, 313, INT; 1/1, TD) drops from a QB1 to a QB7.

Joking of course. Manning and the starting receivers maintain their value. But the point is that a poor run defense can absolutely affect the values of players on that team's offense, especially the running backs.

Right now Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes' biggest obstacle isn't the opposing defense, it's their own.

Emerging Trends

The Good Stuff:

Apparently Brad Childress is being tutored by the likes of Shanahangini.

Artose Pinner (29/125, 3 TDs; 2/15, fum)? Really? Ok.

Chester Taylor's other backup ran roughshod over the hapless Detroit Lions in Week 14. If Taylor's injury lingers, Pinner makes for a solid Week 15 pickup despite the presence of Ciatrick Faison (6/28)— it's a 50/50 shot at a start against the Jets 26th ranked run defense in Week 15.

Even though Edgerrin James (26/115, TD; 2/6) can no longer rightfully be called 'The Edge', that doesn't mean he can't still be an effective fantasy runner when the matchup is right. And the matchup was right Sunday against a mediocre Seahawks run defense.

Strangely, James ran the same amount of times (26) for the same amount of yards (115) in Week 14 as he did in Week 13's win over the Rams. Interesting, that.

Anyway, over the next two weeks, Edgerrin has one decent matchup (hosting Denver in Week 15) and one great matchup (at San Francisco in Week 16). He's a good bet to produce enough to be helpful in those two games. Buy.

In the last nine games, LaDainian Tomlinson has scored 26 touchdowns. You read that right. 26. He's averaging nearly three touchdown per game over that span. LT's 29 TDs in 2006 represent a new single-season NFL record. He faces Kansas City and Seattle over the next two weeks, and could easily end up with 33 or 34 TDs this season.

Incredible.

So incredible, in fact, that I think the nickname 'L.T.' should now be Tomlinson's exclusively. Lawrence Taylor was an incredible player, but he was also on copious amounts of cocaine. I could register 15 sacks in a season if I had enough blow in my system.

When it's all said and done, Tomlinson might be the greatest back of all time. We're witnessing history in the making here. Do yourself a favor and watch the Chargers next time they're available in your area. Greatness plays in their backfield. He wears #21.

Drew Brees (26/38, 384, 5 TDs; 5/-6) put up another huge game Sunday night. He could be the league's leading fantasy QB when it's all said and done.

I'd lavish superlatives and espouse on his remarkable season, but rather than bore you with my words, I'll amaze you with Drew's numbers: He's averaging 310 yards passing per game in 2006. He hasn't thrown an interception in 5 of his last 6 games. In that same span he's thrown 14 touchdowns.

In 2006, Brees has thrown for more yards than Peyton Manning (4,039 to 3,628) and more TDs than Peyton Manning (25 to 22). And did I mention he's the shortest starting QB in the league, listed at 6'0"?

He's the biggest surprise of the season and an incredibly underrated player.

The Bad Stuff:

You've heard of the 'irresistible force vs. the immovable object' paradox, right? I've got a new one for you. How about the 'immovable offense vs. the immovable defense'?

Granted, it's not really a paradox.. Exactly the opposite, actually. It's what happens when a terrible rushing offense meets an outstanding rush defense. In other words, it describes what happened when the Lions met the Vikings Sunday afternoon.

Entering their game against the league's #1 rush defense, the hapless Detroit Lions had run for 922 yards in 2006. When their game with the Vikings was over, the hapless Detroit Lions had rushed for 919 yards in 2006.

That's right. Detroit actually LOST three rushing yards in Week 14.

No further sentiments needed. The Lions are a wreck.

Shanahan Corner:

Now THAT'S more like it Shanahan!

After last week's decidedly un-Shanahan-like box score, the man who cannot smile divvied up the Broncos touches in vintage Mike Shanahan fashion.

Tatum Bell (17/116; 4/15) led the way, but Mike Bell (10/46) was involved enough to annoy Tatum owners to Shanny's specifications.

Tatum has assumed a 60/40 edge in value right this second. Who knows if that figure will remain relevant one week from now…

The Texans are approaching Shanahan / Mangini status with their continued random-ish allocation of carries amongst their runners.

This week, like last week, it was Ron Dayne (21/87, 2 TDs; 3/12) excelling in the Houston backfield. The former Heisman winner scored his first two TDs of the season against the Titans Sunday while grinding out four yards per carry. Wali Lundy's (5/14) role seems to be getting smaller by the week.

I saw Sam Gado's picture on a milk carton recently. I'm worried about him.

Dayne is the man of the hour. He holds a 70/30 edge in value over Lundy.

The runningback carousel continued in New York Sunday as Leon Washington (7/55; 7/28) and Cedric Houston (18/50; 1/7) split the workload against the Bills. But the good news is that some trends are starting to emerge.

It looks like Washington is developing into something of a points per reception specialist and Houston is getting the bulk of the work in short yardage and on the ground in general.

Both players can be viable commodities depending on how each particular game unfolds. As long as you can successfully predict how each Jets game will unfold before it actually happens, you should have no trouble getting production out of this Shanahan backfield. But for the non-telepaths among us, I'd advise staying away if you can.

These guys have roughly equal value in ppr leagues and the split is 60-40 in favor of Houston in traditional formats.

With Laurence Maroney down and out, Corey Dillon (16/79; 1/1) got the lion's share of the Patriots carries in Week 14. Stay tuned to rotoworld.com all week long for updates on Maroney's status for Week 15. Those updates will largely determine the relative values of Maroney and Dillon moving forward.

As stated above, the Colts defense hurt Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes more than the Jags defense did Sunday. Neither runner had much of a chance to produce in the Jags 44-17 blowout win.

It should be noted, though, that Dominic Rhodes has scored the last two short yardage TDs for the Colts after Addai cashed in four times in Week 12. Are the Colts trying to even things out between the two runners? Perhaps. But Addai remains the preferable runner to own by a 55-45 split.

Deuce McAllister (21/111; 3/15) got the ground yards and Reggie Bush (6/37; 6/125, TD) was a difference maker through the air in the Saints 42-17 win Sunday night.

I could literally cut and paste the advice on these two runners from my Week 1 column and it would still be relevant—favor Deuce in yardage formats and Bush in ppr formats. I favor Bush by a 55/45 split.

The Panthers never got anything going against the Giants Sunday afternoon.

DeShaun Foster (8/23; 2/3) was a non-factor. DeAngelo Williams (2/1; 4/45) bucked the odds and was less of a factor than Foster. The bad news is that things don't get any easier next week as the Panthers face a desperate Steelers team.

Neither player is very attractive to me. But that's probably because I'm straight. I'll call their values even at 50/50.

Dallas Cowboys never got close enough to the goalline to have Marion Barber (2/-1) vulture a potential score from Julius Jones (10/116, TD), who did his owners a favor with his 77-yard TD trot in the first quarter. It was Julius' first score since October.

But Week 14 was an aberration for the Cowboys runners. Barber is still the short-yardage runner, i.e., the touchdown scorer, of this backfield. I'd prefer to own Barber in most formats by a 60/40 split.

The Jags' Shanahan backfield continues to be one of the league's most talented and most productive. Fragile Fred Taylor's (9/131, TD) hamstring bears watching, however, as he left Sunday's game after rushing just nine times.

If he misses any games, Maurice Jones-Drew-Griffith-Joyner-Kersee (15/166, 2 TDs; 1/15) sees his value skyrocket to top-10 status. Jacksonville finishes the fantasy season with the Titans in Week 15 and the Pats in Week 16.

If you play fantasy football in Week 17, you're a braver man than I.