Fantasy Football News 2007

[Hache Man]

Last Minute Draft Help
The following is our last Mock Draft of the season for the owners smart enough to draft as late as possible. Since I haven't tackled Average Draft Position since a pair of columns written before training camp, I will include some ADP thoughts after each round. It's also ADP day over at Pancake Blocks.

This is a points-per-reception league. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF no flex. So it's about as heavily tilted towards wideout as you can get. Four points per passing touchdown. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

Round One

1.01. Footballguys – LaDainian Tomlinson
1.02. FFToday – Steven Jackson
1.03. FSP – Frank Gore
1.04. KFFL – Larry Johnson
1.05. FootballInjuries – Joseph Addai
1.06. The Huddle – Brian Westbrook
1.07. Rotoworld – Willie Parker
1.08. FantasyGuru– Reggie Bush
1.09. Rotowire – Maurice Jones-Drew
1.10. FFMastermind – Shaun Alexander
1.11. DraftSharks – Travis Henry
1.12. Fantasy Insights – Willis McGahee

Trends: In points-per-reception (PPR) leagues, we project a monster drop-off in running back value after eight backs. The same eight went first in this draft. Mo-Jo looks a little early, but he gets a big boost in this format. Shaun Alexander gets a downgrade because of his poor receiving skills and that's reflected. In a heavy wide receiver league like this, I'd consider wideouts at the end of the first round, but the owners took them on the way back. No difference really.

ADP Analysis: Drew is being taken on average as the RB14, usually mid-way through the second round. He's not your average backup, but that's awfully early for someone splitting time ... Alexander's ADP has steadily risen all offseason to RB5 despite Rotoworld's low ranking … Willie Parker (RB8) usually goes after Westbrook (RB7), which I'm surprised about.

Round Two

2.01. Marvin Harrison
2.02. Chad Johnson
2.03. Laurence Maroney
2.04. Rudi Johnson
2.05. Steve Smith
2.06. Rotoworld – Reggie Wayne
2.07. Ronnie Brown
2.08. Cedric Benson
2.09. Edgerrin James
2.10. Torry Holt
2.11. Peyton Manning
2.12. Terrell Owens

Trends: Six wideouts, Rotoworld's entire first tier as of a week ago, go in round two. I was surprised wideouts didn't go a little faster in this format. We've dropped Torry Holt a few spots in the meantime, and it would have been interesting to see where Holt went after the latest round of news surrounding his knee. I still wouldn't let him get out of round three.

I considered Brandon Jacobs in round two, and would have done it in a non-PPR league. The lack of a flex player, though, makes Reggie Wayne a better scorer. Ronnie Brown is beginning to slip a bit because of the relative unease in Miami.

ADP Analysis: Peyton Manning, and quarterbacks in general, go later in industry league drafts than normal. I learned that with two work leagues in the last week. Manning is averaging being taken with the eleventh or twelfth pick ... Johnson (RB10) and Maroney (RB11) will go in the first round in most formats ... Wayne (WR6) is usually the last of the first tier receivers to be taken, but he still is off the board by the top of round three. Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, on average, go three picks ahead of the rest of the wideouts. I'm amazed Edgerrin James (RB16) is still a second-round pick. This league stuck closely to ADP averages early.

*** Play the free $100,000 Challenge and prove you are the best fantasy owner in America.

Round Three

3.01. Roy Williams
3.02. Brandon Jacobs
3.03. Andre Johnson
3.04. Clinton Portis
3.05. Antonio Gates
3.06. Larry Fitzgerald
3.07. Rotoworld – Thomas Jones
3.08. Javon Walker
3.09. Lee Evans
3.10. Carnell Williams
3.11. Deuce McAllister
3.12. Marion Barber

Trends: In a PPR league, Thomas Jones make a fine RB2 pick. I'd much rather have him than players in job shares like McAllister and Barber. No quarterbacks are taken in the third round, a rarity … Lee Evans received no downgrade for the scoring format.

ADP Analysis: Brandon Jacobs' ADP has steadily climbed from RB28 early in the summer to RB20 now. We've had him no worse than RB16 all along, but still never wind up getting a chance to draft him … Gates (TE1) is averaging being taken in the late third-round. I'd look hard at him in the fourth round if available ... Marion Barber's ADP (RB24, late fourth-round) seems to be slipping as it becomes clear he won't start for the Cowboys early in the year … It's rare to see Andre Johnson (WR12) and Roy Williams (WR 10) both go ahead of Larry Fitzgerald … Carnell Williams (RB22, early-fourth round) remains a low cost RB2 on average.

Round Four

4.01. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
4.02. Marshawn Lynch
4.03. Donald Driver
4.04. Marques Colston
4.05. Adrian Peterson
4.06. Rotoworld – Anquan Boldin
4.07. Laveranues Coles
4.08. Hines Ward
4.09. Randy Moss
4.10. LaMont Jordan
4.11. Plaxico Burress
4.12. Ahman Green

Trends: Some PPR plus players like Housh, Colston, Boldin, and Coles come at solid value in the fourth round. With nearly every team having their starting running back slots filled, only the top two rookie runners, Lamont Jordan, and Ahman Green are taken at the position. Peyton Manning is still the only quarterback off the board.

ADP Analysis: Don't expect Housh (WR10) and Boldin (WR9) to last this long in this format ... Randy Moss (WR14, mid-fourth round) has settled into this draft slot for better or worse. I still think there's a better chance he'll be a bust than a second-round value, but he should score if healthy. … This was early for LaMont Jordan (RB35, seventh-round) according to his ADP, although we've had him in our Top 60 players since March, so there are probably a lot of Rotoworld users rolling with him as a RB3. Good luck to all of us.

*** Join the thousands of owners who have signed up for the NFL Daily Dose to be delivered to your inbox every morning. It's on the right side of this column.

Round Five

5.01. Braylon Edwards
5.02. Deion Branch
5.03. Jerious Norwood
5.04. Carson Palmer
5.05. Reggie Brown
5.06. Drew Brees
5.07. Rotoworld – Marc Bulger
5.08. Tom Brady
5.09. Vince Young
5.10. Donovan McNabb
5.11. DeShaun Foster
5.12. Jerricho Cotchery

Trends: Industry drafts tend to wait on quarterbacks, and Carson Palmer could prove to be the steal of the draft in the fifth-round. Six of seven picks were quarterbacks in the middle of the round, with Vince Young the most surprising pick. I was happy to take our third-ranked quarterback this late because I was confident in the running back and wideout depth available that I'd need to fill out my roster. This was the first time all draft season I saw Foster go in front of DeAngelo Williams.

ADP Analysis: Cotchery (WR32) won't normally be taken this high, but he has extra value in this format. He was easily the highest wideout remaining on our board, as well as Footballguys, who drafted him. This draft was done before the recent discouraging news on Jerious Norwood (RB29, sixth round). His ADP is falling, although he's still a fine third running back pick. … This group of quarterbacks will usually be taken in the third round (Palmer) or the fourth (everyone else but Young). Young looks like a good value with an ADP in the eighth round if you can get him that late.

Round Six

6.01. Jamal Lewis
6.02. Calvin Johnson
6.03. Joey Galloway
6.04. Santana Moss
6.05. Julius Jones
6.06. Rotoworld – DeAngelo Williams
6.07. Fred Taylor
6.08. Jon Kitna
6.09. Darrell Jackson
6.10. Tony Romo
6.11. Brandon Jackson
6.12. Tatum Bell


Trends: This is where the depth at running back starts showing up. This is a WR-heavy league, but Jones, Williams, Fred Taylor, and Brandon Jackson have great potential for picks this late. I was excited to take Williams as a RB3 in this format because of his receiving ability.

ADP Analysis: Romo (QB7) and Kitna (QB8) went right at their ADPs overall. They are seen as the next-best options to the elite six quarterbacks we've written about in the last few weeks … Darrell Jackson (WR24) has been knocked down draft boards because of his recent injuries, but most owners seem to believe San Francisco's offense won't hurt him … Tatum Bell (RB31) is rising by the week, and went around his average slot here. Rotoworld believes it's too high. Brandon Jackson (RB32) also continues to rise up draft boards … Santana Moss (WR22) gets a downgrade in this format, but he's one of our favorite mid-round picks this year coming off a down season.

*** To see Brandon Jackson's latest move on our cheat sheets, check out the Rotoworld draft guide.

Round Seven

7.01. Todd Heap
7.02. Mark Clayton
7.03. Vernon Davis
7.04. Ladell Betts
7.05. Bernard Berrian
7.06. Santonio Holmes
7.07. Rotoworld – D.J. Hackett
7.08. Kevin Curtis
7.09. Vincent Jackson
7.10. Kellen Winslow
7.11. Chris Chambers
7.12. Bears Defense


Trends: Tight end run starts! Once again, the quarterback and tight end runs go a little later in industry drafts than elsewhere. One thing I've noticed this season is that I like the WR3s almost as much as the late WR2s. Clayton, Holmes, Hackett, and Jackson are all emerging players who I believe have little downside … Betts is the only running back taken this round. He definitely occupies the space in drafts between starters and backups because he's the best "backup" available.

ADP Analysis: Of the wideouts I mentioned above, Hackett (WR35) and Curtis (WR36) have the lowest ADPS – in the ninth round overall. Jackson (WR27) and Chambers (WR25) will go earlier in most drafts … The tight end run usually starts in sixth-round with Tony Gonzalez, and ends in the eighth round with Alge Crumpler … The Bears defense (DEF1) goes in the seventh-round on average, which is too early for us.

Round Eight

8.01. Tony Gonzalez
8.02. Patriots Defense
8.03. Ravens Defense
8.04. Chris Cooley
8.05. Jeremy Shockey
8.06. Rotoworld – LenDale White
8.07. Devery Henderson
8.08. Chris Brown
8.09. Alge Crumpler
8.10. Warrick Dunn
8.11. Chester Taylor
8.12. Philip Rivers

Trends: Still quality starting tight ends and solid running back values available in round eight. White was a luxury pick in this format, and will only be worth it if I deal one of my running backs. Only one wide receiver was taken, an oddity in the middle rounds, but most of the quality third wideouts were off the board.

ADP Analysis: Owners don't know what to do with LenDale White (RB40) and Chris Brown (RB 45), usually passing on both in the first nine rounds. Chris Henry (RB47) isn't getting taken much later, which is a big mistake. White has a higher ceiling than any other back taken this late … Dunn (RB39) went around his ADP, but I'm just not interested.

***

You can go to the league website to see the rest of the draft picks. Below are a handful of the most interesting remaining picks.

9.01. Kevin Jones: This is about right. Jones looks likely to start the year on the PUP list (we'll find either way Thursday), but he's a nice gamble once your starting lineup is set.

9.04. Matt Hasselbeck: He's going to be the last best starting fantasy quarterback available in a lot of leagues. Good value.

9.07. Jason Witten: Last best tight end.

10.04. Ronald Curry: Amazingly, it wasn't me that took him.

10.12. Brandon Jones: Probably not starting in Tennessee.

11.02. Terry Glenn: Falling by the day. This late, he's worth it.

11.08. Jacoby Jones: I love the kid, but it's amazing what a few preseason games can do.

11.09 Mike Bell: He's back at practice and turning into a great value.

12.04. Chris Henry, TEN: May be inactive on game days.

12.10. Dominic Rhodes: Should be part of committee when suspension is over.

13.01. Ben Watson: More proof that it's easy to find tight ends.

13.03. Matt Jones: Best Jones available.

15.06. James Jones: Greg Jennings went at 10.08. I'd certainly rather have James than Jacoby.

15.11. Sammy Morris: Not bad for a backup running back who should see some goal-line carries on a high scoring team.

16.08. Tab Perry: It's fine for a flier pick, but Tab Perry has shownnothing this month. Don't assume he'll have a big role in the offense or that he's even the third receiver. Maybe it's not fine.

17.10. Daunte Culpepper: Worth a shot this late.

17.11. Ernest Wilford: Currently the number one receiver in Jacksonville.

[Hache Man]

All Aboard
We've barreled through the meaningful part of the preseason, if there is such a thing. All that is left now before the real action is a few more lineup decisions from coaches, a horrible management move by the Browns and hopefully no more than 17 additional hours of peering into Ookie's soul.

Then we all will find out how much we didn't know. We pay close attention to all of the preseason action in an attempt to pick up on this year's fashionable sleepers, as well as trying to figure out just how much sexy Chad Johnson is going to bring back.

Once the regular season starts, a lot will blow up in our faces. It happens every year and the only thing predictable about it is that it definitely will happen. Which players and which teams is far more difficult to pin down, but we have to give it a shot, right?

I've picked out three teams that I believe will exceed expectations and three that will fall short. You can make the logical leap to extend the teams' success to the players included. The point is to look beyond the obvious teams - hey, everybody likes the Colts, right? - and try to hit a couple of potential surprises. So if you have any sense at all, you will take my opinions and . . . do what you will with them.

THREE I LIKE

Atlanta Falcons

I go back and forth on the Falcons, but the fact is that expectations could not be much lower. Many of the team's fans already have written off the season, mostly because Joey Harrington is the starting quarterback. The Falcons also have something going for them with a pair of former first-round receivers, Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler and two solid backs, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood.

I'm not suggesting you rush out and load up on Falcons in the fourth round, but don't you think an offensive mind such as Bobby Petrino can make something out of this bunch? Harrington will have a few decent games so don't be scared to consider him as a backup or a bye-week fill-in. The backs are a little dicier. While Norwood clearly has much more upside, Dunn looks like he will retain the starting role for now as his veteran presence could calm the offense. Who knows how much the Falcons will win, but they will score more than you expect in many of those losses.

Oakland Raiders

The Daunte Culpepper Reclamation Project is turning into something serious and we are going to have to start thinking about drafting him soon. He is buying into Lane Kiffin's offense and appears healthy enough to be the Raiders' best threat at quarterback right now. Considering how he was discarded in Miami, that revival is nothing short of amazing.

The Raiders will remain generally conservative on offense early on, which will limit Culpepper's stats. He also is not nearly the runner he was a few years ago so don't go looking for extra numbers there. Then there are the wide receivers. Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter are not amazing, but as late-round finds, you could do much worse. And keep an eye on TE Zach Miller. The Raiders love him, they have little depth at tight end and could run this guy into the ground by Week 6 with all the playing time he will get.

Chicago Bears

OK, I think I'm the only person on the Rex Grossman bandwagon. And he still might fumble away my so-called support. However, let us be completely objective about this. In his first full season as a starter, Grossman finished tied for seventh in the league with 23 TDs passes and led his team to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning would have killed for that kind of success in his first season.

Sure, Grossman does some funny things and many of his mistakes are particularly galling. He still is a young guy and young quarterbacks tend to do stupid things. After another full offseason in the offense and with a game-breaker such as Bernard Berrian continuing to grow and with TE Greg Olsen joining the offense, there is a lot to look forward to. Still, Grossman is going undrafted in many leagues. He isn't worth a roster spot at all? That is absurd.

THREE I DON'T

Cincinnati Bengals

When we get into January, one thing you'll hear about the teams still playing is about how they have great depth. Every club will go through some rough spots, but the good ones have enough depth to fight through. Well, the Bengals have no depth. They already lost rookie running back Kenny Irons, on top of perennially injured Chris Perry, and have nobody to lighten Rudi Johnson's load. And they have had no luck finding somebody to fill Chris Henry's valuable third receiver role for the first half of the season. The Bengals also were without their two starting tackles for much of the preseason, although left tackle Levi Jones came back Monday night.

That is a dicey combination of problems, and we're still a few days from September. If everything runs perfectly smoothly, the Bengals will be fine and their dynamic offense will keep rolling. But hoping to avoid problems at quarterback, wide receiver, running back and both tackle positions is a long bet. Maybe they get in trouble for only a game or two, but it's those games that could have a dramatic effect on how the season turns. I get a bad feeling when I see a team without capable reserves ready to pitch in, and that is what I see here.

Houston Texans

This isn't exactly going out on a limb, but with a bunch of people doing wacky things like picking Matt Schaub as their breakout player of the year, I feel compelled to bring some reason to the argument. Doesn't anybody remember Rob Johnson? The Bills dumped a first-round pick to go after Johnson, who had 35 passes in three seasons with the Jaguars and basically one good game. So what happened but Johnson gets involved in a quarterback mess with Doug Flutie and never amounts to anything. Oh, he did throw 12 TD passes one season but a star? Not quite.

I bring all of that up to keep the Schaub hysteria in perspective a bit. He has no business being more than a late-round pick, not with all of the offensive problems Houston has had in its existence. The Texans never have been able to protect the quarterback, their running game has been all over the map and other than Andre Johnson, what good receivers have they had? Maybe Schaub does mark the arrival of a new era. History is a bear to overcome here, though, especially when the rest of the cast is not appreciably better.

Miami Dolphins

Maybe I missed something, but when the Dolphins come up with such an excess of playmakers that they could dangle Chris Chambers as trade bait? They let Wes Welker go, got rid of TE Randy McMichael -- not a star but a nice target -- and QB Daunte Culpepper (see above). OK, new coach Cam Cameron wants his own guys in place, but Ted Ginn Jr. isn't ready to contribute as an every-down receiver and Marty Booker . . . well, he is Marty Booker. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

And where'd this hype about Ronnie Brown come from? Folks are falling all over each other to draft him in the first round. Let me count the problems with this idea: He has a total of 10 career TDs, a career-high of 241 carries and did not play 16 games in either of his two seasons. The Dolphins still haven't figured out who plays where on the offensive line (hey, no rush, guys) and saying that Trent Green is playing like a 37-year-old is kind of insulting to 37-year-olds.

[Hache Man]

The Great Unknown
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
The preseason is a time marked by the unknown. Take young Danny Baugher, for instance. Two weeks ago, the Patriots cut veteran Josh Miller and Baugher was virtually assured the punting gig. In my world, I imagine he's spent the time since sidling up to attractive women and informing them that he was, in fact, the Danny Baugher, punter for the New England Patriots (it's a line every single man should try, by the way). It's possible he mimed a punt for added sex appeal.



But today, Mr. Baugher woke up to a much crueler world. The Pats signed Chris Hanson and he is suddenly out of a job. Baugher not only loses a bunch of money, he loses the infinite sex appeal of a punter in the NFL. Such is life.

The 100KFC is a game built on match-ups. You want to play good players against bad defenses. Simple enough. But as Danny Baugher knows, it's hard to predict where someone stands in the preseason. Is Brandon Jacobs going to be this years Frank Gore? Is Braylon Edwards going to put up top tier WR numbers? Is Romo for real? There are a lot of unknowns now that will be painfully clear come week four.

Once the season is underway, we'll be able to see which teams give are giving up a ton of points to tight ends. Injuries will weaken pass defenses. We'll be able to see how coaching changes in Arizona, Oakland and Dallas have affected their respective team's performance.

In the meantime, however, it's probably best to play it safe. And to help you do so, I've picked out three teams that I can almost promise you will be terrible against the pass, and three more that will be decimated by the run. Until we have a better idea of how other defenses will fare this season, you should check the following teams' match-ups, and strongly consider starting anyone that goes against them.

Three Porous Run Defenses:

The Indianapolis Colts

Until Booger McFarland showed up, the Colts run defense stopped the rush about as well as a wet diaper last year. By the time the playoffs rolled around, though, the squad's defense held like the finest cloth diaper (yes, this is the first of many extended diaper metaphors). Well, McFarland is on IR, and the Colts are destined to once again give up big rushing numbers. Their first three match-ups are against New Orleans, Tennessee and Houston. Reggie Bush makes a great start in Week 1 against these guys, and using Ahman Green in Week 3 (before he is injured) could also be prudent.

The Buffalo Bills

On the plus side, the Bills have Dick Jauron as their head coach. The energy this firecracker exhibits is unmatched in football. When you think "game face," you think Dick Jauron. And the Bills defense will need to feed off his obvious energy if they want any shot this year. Don't get me wrong; they have a squad of very solid young players. Unfortunately, they lost most of their veteran leadership in Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker. There's no doubt that this team is poised to improve, but this season they will be little more than a group of inexperienced and undersized speedsters. Travis Henry, Willie Parker, and Laurence Maroney should all fare well in the first three weeks.

The Tennessee Titans

Considering the only other person who can make it rain is God, you have to imagine that losing Pacman Jones will hurt the Titans' anemic defense. Jones truly is an elite defensive weapon, and seeing as the Titans' defense was terrible with him, I don't think there's a word that accurately describes how bad they will be without him this season. The signing of Corey Simon could help, but his ability to contribute this season is unknown. The lack of run-stoppers in the secondary will make them easy pickings. Their first three opponents are Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New Orleans. It could be Addai's biggest game of the season.

Send Help for these Pass Defenses

The Atlanta Falcons

DeAngelo Hall is fast, and definitely gets the "Most Willing to Shave a Message in His Hair and Have It Backfire" award. But he's not the only person to give himself too much credit. Hall is overrated because of his speed, and he's still the anchor of a terrible Atlanta secondary. Chris Houston and Jimmy Williams provide hope for the future, but the Falcons should still be victimized often this year. Having Joey Harrington run the offense means they should be on the field quite often (because Harrington will throw 80-yard touchdown bombs on first down, obviously). Atlanta faces Minnesota, Jacksonville and Carolina in the first three weeks. Steve Smith probably can't wait.

The Detroit Lions

Woe is the Lions. They have a lot of offensive firepower, but it might not be enough to overcome one of the worst all-around defenses in the NFL. They were brutal last year, and their major offseason defensive move was shipping Dre' Bly off to the Broncos. Run-stopping safety Daniel Bullocks was recently placed on IR, only making matters worse. The Lions play Oakland, Minnesota and Philadelphia in the first three weeks. McNabb is a great start, and since the 100KFC forces you to start 24 QBs over the course of the regular season, it might even make sense to start Culpepper. That's how hard up the Lions are.

The New York Giants

The Giants secondary is full of mediocre talent. Rookie Aaron Ross will eventually be an elite corner, but for now is stuck behind two grizzled vets, making his impact minimal. Michael Strahan will probably return, but that shouldn't make the Giants any better against the pass than they were last year. They should give up plenty when they face Dallas, Green Bay and Washington in the first three weeks.

I suggest you find yourself a grid of the NFL Schedule. Scour the first twelve weeks and find what you believe to be strong match-ups. Try to decide when you want to play studs like Manning, LT or Chad Johnson and mark off those weeks. That way you know when you're going to need to dig a little deeper and you can prepare for it. There's no shame in becoming a dork over this game. Winning involves planning and the potential payoff is huge. Nobody's gonna call you a nerd when you're walking around in your brand new NBC polo shirt, damn it.

[Hache Man]

Camp Battle Roundup





Battles Clearly Won
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Raiders No. 1 Running Back
Winner: LaMont Jordan
Losers: Dominic Rhodes, Justin Fargas, Adimchinobe Echemandu

A back injury sidelined Jordan for a short spell, but he returned with successive outstanding preseason performances. He'll begin splitting with Rhodes in Week 5, but is a fine RB3.

Cowboys No. 1 Running Back
Winner: Julius Jones
Loser: Marion Barber

The new coaching staff won't fiddle with what Bill Parcells left in place. Jones will start games with Barber the "closer." While Barber is unlikely to score 16 times again, he remains the better fantasy pick.

Steelers No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Santonio Holmes
Losers: Nate Washington, Cedrick Wilson

Wilson started the preseason opener but was quickly replaced by Holmes when the second-year wideout fully recovered from an undisclosed offseason surgery. Holmes will keep the job all season.

Saints No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Devery Henderson
Losers: Terrance Copper, David Patten, Lance Moore

Moore may have pulled ahead for the third-receiver job, but starter's status belongs to Henderson, hamstring injury or not. The speedy LSU product will be worth using as a WR3 in the right matchups.

Broncos No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Brandon Marshall
Losers: Brandon Stokley, Rod Smith

Stokley topped Denver's first camp depth chart only because Marshall was on PUP at the time. He's since rebounded strong and reclaimed his position. Smith will miss the season's first six weeks.

Jets No. 1 Quarterback
Winner: Chad Pennington
Loser: Kellen Clemens

Pennington has lost considerable ground to Clemens, who the Jets will want to give a chance late in the season if they fall out of playoff position. Pennington isn't playing well, so that possibility is growing.

Packers No. 3 Receiver
Winner: James Jones
Loser: Ruvell Martin

Jones has a great chance to be the NFL's most productive third-receiver this year because the Packers' line is good, their tight ends are weak, and the offense will go three-wide frequently.

Falcons No. 1 Running Back
Winner: Warrick Dunn
Loser: Jerious Norwood

Dunn won this battle because he's a veteran, definitely not due to his preseason play. His body is breaking down and the explosive Norwood should easily out-produce him across the board this season.

Chargers No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Craig Davis
Losers: Eric Parker, Malcom Floyd

Davis will start Week 1 in place of the injured Parker, who may miss up to six weeks and not be 100 percent all year. The Bolts will use Floyd's size in the red zone, but he's No. 3 for now.

Jaguars No. 1 Receiver
Winner: Ernest Wilford
Losers: Matt Jones, Mike Walker

Wilford won out because he showed up for every day of camp while Jones and Walker nursed injuries. There is a slight chance Jones could overtake him, but he seems more likely to stay in the slot.

Chiefs No. 2 Running Back
Winner: Michael Bennett
Loser: Kolby Smith, Priest Holmes

Smith couldn't move the ball forward in the preseason, so Bennett retained his job by default. Because Larry Johnson is such a risk to break down, his owners must continue to track the pecking order here.

Saints No. 1 Tight End
Winner: Eric Johnson
Losers: Mark Campbell, Billy Miller

Campbell recently got hurt and Johnson created separation from Miller after a slow start in pre-camp work. You could do worse than Johnson in a PPR league, though he's no field-stretcher.

Falcons No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Roddy White
Losers: Michael Jenkins, Laurent Robinson

Jenkins is the slot receiver with Robinson nursing a leg injury. White showed he's the same Roddy he's always been by dropping two catchable balls Monday night, but isn't in much danger because Atlanta values his long speed.

Dolphins No. 1 Quarterback
Winner: Trent Green
Losers: Cleo Lemon, John Beck

Green was named the starter two weeks ago despite not playing well in the preseason. With a miserable line in front of him, he's unlikely to play all 16 games. Both Lemon and Beck could see multiple starts.

Texans No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Kevin Walter
Losers: Jacoby Jones, Keenan McCardell

Jones seems to be everyone's "next Marques Colston" except for coach Gary Kubiak, who confirmed last Sunday that Walter will begin the year starting. Still, expect Jones to pass him by mid-season.

Eagles No. 2 Running Back
Winner: Correll Buckhalter
Loser: Tony Hunt

Brian Westbrook made it through camp unscathed, so it seems he's less of an injury risk this year than in any other. But because of his history, know that Hunt will get goal-line carries if Westbrook gets hurt.

Jaguars No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Dennis Northcutt
Losers: Reggie Williams, Charles Sharon

Williams has moved up to the fourth-receiver spot, but isn't close to Northcutt. New coordinator Dirk Koetter prefers a speed receiver opposite Ernest Wilford, meaning Northcutt's job is safe and sound.

49ers No. 2 Running Back
Winner: Maurice Hicks
Losers: Michael Robinson, Thomas Clayton

Hicks is officially second on the depth chart but Robinson should still see the majority of the work if Gore gets hurt, making the former Penn State QB a better handcuff. Clayton is headed for the practice squad.

Titans No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Eric Moulds
Losers: Chris Davis, Paul Williams

Moulds made an immediate impression upon signing in July and has captured the starting role. Davis seems to have found his niche in the slot. Williams may be destined for waivers.

Jaguars No. 1 Tight End
Winner: Marcedes Lewis
Losers: George Wrighster, Jermaine Wiggins

Wiggins was among the first round of cuts, leaving Lewis atop the depth chart with Wrighster backing him up. The Jags probably won't use both tight ends often, so Lewis has sleeper potential as a TE2.

Chiefs No. 1 Quarterback
Damon Huard v. Brodie Croyle

Croyle played his way out of the job and Huard got the nod. Neither will likely be worth owning during the season in an ultra-conservative offense, but keep in mind that Huard is only keeping the seat warm.

Battles That Are Less Clear

Dolphins No. 1 Running Back
Ronnie Brown v. Jesse Chatman

Brown will be named Miami's starter on Monday. Chatman had an exceptional preseason and looks like a fine backup, as he was behind LaDainian Tomlinson in 2004, but Brown's skills are far superior.

Bills No. 1 Running Back
Marshawn Lynch v. Anthony Thomas v. Dwayne Wright

Coach Dick Jauron didn't formally name a starter, saying only that he plans to use a committee. We expect Lynch's talent to win out and Thomas to play a relatively minor role. Wright is safely third on the depth chart.

Packers No. 1 Running Back
Vernand Morency v. Brandon Jackson

Jackson never won this battle outright, but Morency might not play in the opener anyways. When Green Bay begins showing its real offense and not just a preseason-styled vanilla version, Jackson will have every opportunity to rack up yardage and keep the job all year.

Seahawks No. 2 Receiver
D.J. Hackett v. Nate Burleson

Although coach Mike Holmgren has made nothing official, Hackett started the all-important third exhibition game. It's an indication that the contract-year wideout has formally moved pass Burleson, who should focus on kick returns.

Titans No. 1 Running Back
LenDale White v. Chris Brown v. Chris Henry

The Titans will use a two-man rotation in Week 1, but it's uncertain who will start the game. In the end, White should get more carries overall with Brown playing on third downs. Henry could be inactive.

Patriots No. 2 Receiver
Donte' Stallworth v. Jabar Gaffney v. Reche Caldwell

Stallworth is ahead of Gaffney based on recent preseason games, but we won't know the starter officially until coordinator Josh McDaniels sends out his lineup on opening day. Expect Caldwell to be released.

Broncos No. 2 Running Back
Mike Bell v. Cecil Sapp v. Selvin Young

While a hip injury temporarily opened the door for Sapp, we'll be shocked if Bell isn't the pick. He knows the offense well and is too effective near the goal. Young will have a spot on the practice team.

Panthers No. 2 Receiver
Dwayne Jarrett v. Keary Colbert v. Drew Carter

It'll be Colbert or Carter on opening day, but Jarrett should take over by mid-season. Despite some drops and inconsistency in camp, Carter's role is defined as a speed threat who needs to be on the field.

Bucs No. 2 Receiver
Maurice Stovall v. Ike Hilliard v. David Boston v. Michael Clayton

Stovall's upside is the best but Hilliard has tenure on his side. Clayton could be traded or released, while the results of Boston's urine test are pending. Look for Hilliard to start in Week 1 and catch two passes.

Titans No. 1 Tight End
Bo Scaife v. Ben Hartsock v. Ben Troupe

Even though he's been hurt, Troupe tops the team's official depth chart. Hartsock is a valuable blocker, so his spot isn't in jeopardy. Scaife may be the best player here but is no lock to start in Week 1.

Chiefs No. 2 Receiver
Samie Parker v. Dwayne Bowe v. Jeff Webb

The Chiefs will keep Bowe at flanker (Eddie Kennison's position), so he almost certainly won't start Week 1. Parker is the apparent favorite, but has negligible value. Webb failed to step up in camp.

Colts No. 2 Running Back
DeDe Dorsey v. Kenton Keith v. Clifton Dawson

Dorsey wasn't fantastic this preseason but remains the slight leader. It would probably take a monster finale from Keith for him to move up a notch on the depth chart. Dawson should go to the practice squad.

Titans No. 1 Receiver
Brandon Jones v. Courtney Roby v. Roydell Williams

In a suspect passing attack, Williams has emerged the favorite to be a deep complement to Eric Moulds. Jones has fallen behind and can be dropped in re-draft leagues. Roby's camp mirrored his career: quiet.

Browns No. 1 Quarterback
Charlie Frye v. Derek Anderson v. Brady Quinn

The job is almost certainly Frye's to start the year, but he won't last long. Quinn has outperformed both of the players currently listed ahead of him and proven he's ready to play sooner than later.

Eagles No. 3 Receiver
Hank Baskett v. Jason Avant v. Greg Lewis

Because Avant is the slot, he'll get more playing time than Baskett. Baskett will help inside the 20 and when the Birds go four wide. It's uncertain who would start if Reggie Brown or Kevin Curtis gets hurt.

Cowboys No. 1 Kicker
Nick Folk v. Martin Gramatica

Gramatica's hamstring injury has given the sixth-round pick Folk a significant edge. While it'd be preferable for a potential Super Bowl contender to have a veteran kicker, Folk's done nothing to show he isn't worthy.

Raiders No. 1 Quarterback
Daunte Culpepper v. Josh McCown v. Andrew Walter

Culpepper has been fantastic considering how late he came in but the job is still up for grabs. If McCown tears it up Thursday, he has a good chance. Every rep JaMarcus Russell misses decreases the chances he'll start at all this year.

Giants No. 1 Kicker
Josh Huston v. Lawrence Tynes

Tynes hasn't kicked well or stayed healthy and costs about $600,000 more than Huston. We still won't know the winner of this battle until final cuts are processed this weekend.

Other borderline or less-important battle results:

Vikings No. 1 QB: Tarvaris Jackson > Brooks Bollinger
Eagles No. 2 QB: A.J. Feeley > Kevin Kolb
Bills No. 2 QB: Trent Edwards > Craig Nall
Giants No. 2 QB: Jared Lorenzen > Anthony Wright
Giants No. 1 RB: Brandon Jacobs > Reuben Droughns
Redskins No. 1 RB: