Fantasy Football News 2007

[Hache Man]

Last Minute Draft Help
The following is our last Mock Draft of the season for the owners smart enough to draft as late as possible. Since I haven't tackled Average Draft Position since a pair of columns written before training camp, I will include some ADP thoughts after each round. It's also ADP day over at Pancake Blocks.

This is a points-per-reception league. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF no flex. So it's about as heavily tilted towards wideout as you can get. Four points per passing touchdown. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

Round One

1.01. Footballguys – LaDainian Tomlinson
1.02. FFToday – Steven Jackson
1.03. FSP – Frank Gore
1.04. KFFL – Larry Johnson
1.05. FootballInjuries – Joseph Addai
1.06. The Huddle – Brian Westbrook
1.07. Rotoworld – Willie Parker
1.08. FantasyGuru– Reggie Bush
1.09. Rotowire – Maurice Jones-Drew
1.10. FFMastermind – Shaun Alexander
1.11. DraftSharks – Travis Henry
1.12. Fantasy Insights – Willis McGahee

Trends: In points-per-reception (PPR) leagues, we project a monster drop-off in running back value after eight backs. The same eight went first in this draft. Mo-Jo looks a little early, but he gets a big boost in this format. Shaun Alexander gets a downgrade because of his poor receiving skills and that's reflected. In a heavy wide receiver league like this, I'd consider wideouts at the end of the first round, but the owners took them on the way back. No difference really.

ADP Analysis: Drew is being taken on average as the RB14, usually mid-way through the second round. He's not your average backup, but that's awfully early for someone splitting time ... Alexander's ADP has steadily risen all offseason to RB5 despite Rotoworld's low ranking … Willie Parker (RB8) usually goes after Westbrook (RB7), which I'm surprised about.

Round Two

2.01. Marvin Harrison
2.02. Chad Johnson
2.03. Laurence Maroney
2.04. Rudi Johnson
2.05. Steve Smith
2.06. Rotoworld – Reggie Wayne
2.07. Ronnie Brown
2.08. Cedric Benson
2.09. Edgerrin James
2.10. Torry Holt
2.11. Peyton Manning
2.12. Terrell Owens

Trends: Six wideouts, Rotoworld's entire first tier as of a week ago, go in round two. I was surprised wideouts didn't go a little faster in this format. We've dropped Torry Holt a few spots in the meantime, and it would have been interesting to see where Holt went after the latest round of news surrounding his knee. I still wouldn't let him get out of round three.

I considered Brandon Jacobs in round two, and would have done it in a non-PPR league. The lack of a flex player, though, makes Reggie Wayne a better scorer. Ronnie Brown is beginning to slip a bit because of the relative unease in Miami.

ADP Analysis: Peyton Manning, and quarterbacks in general, go later in industry league drafts than normal. I learned that with two work leagues in the last week. Manning is averaging being taken with the eleventh or twelfth pick ... Johnson (RB10) and Maroney (RB11) will go in the first round in most formats ... Wayne (WR6) is usually the last of the first tier receivers to be taken, but he still is off the board by the top of round three. Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, on average, go three picks ahead of the rest of the wideouts. I'm amazed Edgerrin James (RB16) is still a second-round pick. This league stuck closely to ADP averages early.

*** Play the free $100,000 Challenge and prove you are the best fantasy owner in America.

Round Three

3.01. Roy Williams
3.02. Brandon Jacobs
3.03. Andre Johnson
3.04. Clinton Portis
3.05. Antonio Gates
3.06. Larry Fitzgerald
3.07. Rotoworld – Thomas Jones
3.08. Javon Walker
3.09. Lee Evans
3.10. Carnell Williams
3.11. Deuce McAllister
3.12. Marion Barber

Trends: In a PPR league, Thomas Jones make a fine RB2 pick. I'd much rather have him than players in job shares like McAllister and Barber. No quarterbacks are taken in the third round, a rarity … Lee Evans received no downgrade for the scoring format.

ADP Analysis: Brandon Jacobs' ADP has steadily climbed from RB28 early in the summer to RB20 now. We've had him no worse than RB16 all along, but still never wind up getting a chance to draft him … Gates (TE1) is averaging being taken in the late third-round. I'd look hard at him in the fourth round if available ... Marion Barber's ADP (RB24, late fourth-round) seems to be slipping as it becomes clear he won't start for the Cowboys early in the year … It's rare to see Andre Johnson (WR12) and Roy Williams (WR 10) both go ahead of Larry Fitzgerald … Carnell Williams (RB22, early-fourth round) remains a low cost RB2 on average.

Round Four

4.01. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
4.02. Marshawn Lynch
4.03. Donald Driver
4.04. Marques Colston
4.05. Adrian Peterson
4.06. Rotoworld – Anquan Boldin
4.07. Laveranues Coles
4.08. Hines Ward
4.09. Randy Moss
4.10. LaMont Jordan
4.11. Plaxico Burress
4.12. Ahman Green

Trends: Some PPR plus players like Housh, Colston, Boldin, and Coles come at solid value in the fourth round. With nearly every team having their starting running back slots filled, only the top two rookie runners, Lamont Jordan, and Ahman Green are taken at the position. Peyton Manning is still the only quarterback off the board.

ADP Analysis: Don't expect Housh (WR10) and Boldin (WR9) to last this long in this format ... Randy Moss (WR14, mid-fourth round) has settled into this draft slot for better or worse. I still think there's a better chance he'll be a bust than a second-round value, but he should score if healthy. … This was early for LaMont Jordan (RB35, seventh-round) according to his ADP, although we've had him in our Top 60 players since March, so there are probably a lot of Rotoworld users rolling with him as a RB3. Good luck to all of us.

*** Join the thousands of owners who have signed up for the NFL Daily Dose to be delivered to your inbox every morning. It's on the right side of this column.

Round Five

5.01. Braylon Edwards
5.02. Deion Branch
5.03. Jerious Norwood
5.04. Carson Palmer
5.05. Reggie Brown
5.06. Drew Brees
5.07. Rotoworld – Marc Bulger
5.08. Tom Brady
5.09. Vince Young
5.10. Donovan McNabb
5.11. DeShaun Foster
5.12. Jerricho Cotchery

Trends: Industry drafts tend to wait on quarterbacks, and Carson Palmer could prove to be the steal of the draft in the fifth-round. Six of seven picks were quarterbacks in the middle of the round, with Vince Young the most surprising pick. I was happy to take our third-ranked quarterback this late because I was confident in the running back and wideout depth available that I'd need to fill out my roster. This was the first time all draft season I saw Foster go in front of DeAngelo Williams.

ADP Analysis: Cotchery (WR32) won't normally be taken this high, but he has extra value in this format. He was easily the highest wideout remaining on our board, as well as Footballguys, who drafted him. This draft was done before the recent discouraging news on Jerious Norwood (RB29, sixth round). His ADP is falling, although he's still a fine third running back pick. … This group of quarterbacks will usually be taken in the third round (Palmer) or the fourth (everyone else but Young). Young looks like a good value with an ADP in the eighth round if you can get him that late.

Round Six

6.01. Jamal Lewis
6.02. Calvin Johnson
6.03. Joey Galloway
6.04. Santana Moss
6.05. Julius Jones
6.06. Rotoworld – DeAngelo Williams
6.07. Fred Taylor
6.08. Jon Kitna
6.09. Darrell Jackson
6.10. Tony Romo
6.11. Brandon Jackson
6.12. Tatum Bell


Trends: This is where the depth at running back starts showing up. This is a WR-heavy league, but Jones, Williams, Fred Taylor, and Brandon Jackson have great potential for picks this late. I was excited to take Williams as a RB3 in this format because of his receiving ability.

ADP Analysis: Romo (QB7) and Kitna (QB8) went right at their ADPs overall. They are seen as the next-best options to the elite six quarterbacks we've written about in the last few weeks … Darrell Jackson (WR24) has been knocked down draft boards because of his recent injuries, but most owners seem to believe San Francisco's offense won't hurt him … Tatum Bell (RB31) is rising by the week, and went around his average slot here. Rotoworld believes it's too high. Brandon Jackson (RB32) also continues to rise up draft boards … Santana Moss (WR22) gets a downgrade in this format, but he's one of our favorite mid-round picks this year coming off a down season.

*** To see Brandon Jackson's latest move on our cheat sheets, check out the Rotoworld draft guide.

Round Seven

7.01. Todd Heap
7.02. Mark Clayton
7.03. Vernon Davis
7.04. Ladell Betts
7.05. Bernard Berrian
7.06. Santonio Holmes
7.07. Rotoworld – D.J. Hackett
7.08. Kevin Curtis
7.09. Vincent Jackson
7.10. Kellen Winslow
7.11. Chris Chambers
7.12. Bears Defense


Trends: Tight end run starts! Once again, the quarterback and tight end runs go a little later in industry drafts than elsewhere. One thing I've noticed this season is that I like the WR3s almost as much as the late WR2s. Clayton, Holmes, Hackett, and Jackson are all emerging players who I believe have little downside … Betts is the only running back taken this round. He definitely occupies the space in drafts between starters and backups because he's the best "backup" available.

ADP Analysis: Of the wideouts I mentioned above, Hackett (WR35) and Curtis (WR36) have the lowest ADPS – in the ninth round overall. Jackson (WR27) and Chambers (WR25) will go earlier in most drafts … The tight end run usually starts in sixth-round with Tony Gonzalez, and ends in the eighth round with Alge Crumpler … The Bears defense (DEF1) goes in the seventh-round on average, which is too early for us.

Round Eight

8.01. Tony Gonzalez
8.02. Patriots Defense
8.03. Ravens Defense
8.04. Chris Cooley
8.05. Jeremy Shockey
8.06. Rotoworld – LenDale White
8.07. Devery Henderson
8.08. Chris Brown
8.09. Alge Crumpler
8.10. Warrick Dunn
8.11. Chester Taylor
8.12. Philip Rivers

Trends: Still quality starting tight ends and solid running back values available in round eight. White was a luxury pick in this format, and will only be worth it if I deal one of my running backs. Only one wide receiver was taken, an oddity in the middle rounds, but most of the quality third wideouts were off the board.

ADP Analysis: Owners don't know what to do with LenDale White (RB40) and Chris Brown (RB 45), usually passing on both in the first nine rounds. Chris Henry (RB47) isn't getting taken much later, which is a big mistake. White has a higher ceiling than any other back taken this late … Dunn (RB39) went around his ADP, but I'm just not interested.

***

You can go to the league website to see the rest of the draft picks. Below are a handful of the most interesting remaining picks.

9.01. Kevin Jones: This is about right. Jones looks likely to start the year on the PUP list (we'll find either way Thursday), but he's a nice gamble once your starting lineup is set.

9.04. Matt Hasselbeck: He's going to be the last best starting fantasy quarterback available in a lot of leagues. Good value.

9.07. Jason Witten: Last best tight end.

10.04. Ronald Curry: Amazingly, it wasn't me that took him.

10.12. Brandon Jones: Probably not starting in Tennessee.

11.02. Terry Glenn: Falling by the day. This late, he's worth it.

11.08. Jacoby Jones: I love the kid, but it's amazing what a few preseason games can do.

11.09 Mike Bell: He's back at practice and turning into a great value.

12.04. Chris Henry, TEN: May be inactive on game days.

12.10. Dominic Rhodes: Should be part of committee when suspension is over.

13.01. Ben Watson: More proof that it's easy to find tight ends.

13.03. Matt Jones: Best Jones available.

15.06. James Jones: Greg Jennings went at 10.08. I'd certainly rather have James than Jacoby.

15.11. Sammy Morris: Not bad for a backup running back who should see some goal-line carries on a high scoring team.

16.08. Tab Perry: It's fine for a flier pick, but Tab Perry has shownnothing this month. Don't assume he'll have a big role in the offense or that he's even the third receiver. Maybe it's not fine.

17.10. Daunte Culpepper: Worth a shot this late.

17.11. Ernest Wilford: Currently the number one receiver in Jacksonville.

[Hache Man]

All Aboard
We've barreled through the meaningful part of the preseason, if there is such a thing. All that is left now before the real action is a few more lineup decisions from coaches, a horrible management move by the Browns and hopefully no more than 17 additional hours of peering into Ookie's soul.

Then we all will find out how much we didn't know. We pay close attention to all of the preseason action in an attempt to pick up on this year's fashionable sleepers, as well as trying to figure out just how much sexy Chad Johnson is going to bring back.

Once the regular season starts, a lot will blow up in our faces. It happens every year and the only thing predictable about it is that it definitely will happen. Which players and which teams is far more difficult to pin down, but we have to give it a shot, right?

I've picked out three teams that I believe will exceed expectations and three that will fall short. You can make the logical leap to extend the teams' success to the players included. The point is to look beyond the obvious teams - hey, everybody likes the Colts, right? - and try to hit a couple of potential surprises. So if you have any sense at all, you will take my opinions and . . . do what you will with them.

THREE I LIKE

Atlanta Falcons

I go back and forth on the Falcons, but the fact is that expectations could not be much lower. Many of the team's fans already have written off the season, mostly because Joey Harrington is the starting quarterback. The Falcons also have something going for them with a pair of former first-round receivers, Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler and two solid backs, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood.

I'm not suggesting you rush out and load up on Falcons in the fourth round, but don't you think an offensive mind such as Bobby Petrino can make something out of this bunch? Harrington will have a few decent games so don't be scared to consider him as a backup or a bye-week fill-in. The backs are a little dicier. While Norwood clearly has much more upside, Dunn looks like he will retain the starting role for now as his veteran presence could calm the offense. Who knows how much the Falcons will win, but they will score more than you expect in many of those losses.

Oakland Raiders

The Daunte Culpepper Reclamation Project is turning into something serious and we are going to have to start thinking about drafting him soon. He is buying into Lane Kiffin's offense and appears healthy enough to be the Raiders' best threat at quarterback right now. Considering how he was discarded in Miami, that revival is nothing short of amazing.

The Raiders will remain generally conservative on offense early on, which will limit Culpepper's stats. He also is not nearly the runner he was a few years ago so don't go looking for extra numbers there. Then there are the wide receivers. Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter are not amazing, but as late-round finds, you could do much worse. And keep an eye on TE Zach Miller. The Raiders love him, they have little depth at tight end and could run this guy into the ground by Week 6 with all the playing time he will get.

Chicago Bears

OK, I think I'm the only person on the Rex Grossman bandwagon. And he still might fumble away my so-called support. However, let us be completely objective about this. In his first full season as a starter, Grossman finished tied for seventh in the league with 23 TDs passes and led his team to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning would have killed for that kind of success in his first season.

Sure, Grossman does some funny things and many of his mistakes are particularly galling. He still is a young guy and young quarterbacks tend to do stupid things. After another full offseason in the offense and with a game-breaker such as Bernard Berrian continuing to grow and with TE Greg Olsen joining the offense, there is a lot to look forward to. Still, Grossman is going undrafted in many leagues. He isn't worth a roster spot at all? That is absurd.

THREE I DON'T

Cincinnati Bengals

When we get into January, one thing you'll hear about the teams still playing is about how they have great depth. Every club will go through some rough spots, but the good ones have enough depth to fight through. Well, the Bengals have no depth. They already lost rookie running back Kenny Irons, on top of perennially injured Chris Perry, and have nobody to lighten Rudi Johnson's load. And they have had no luck finding somebody to fill Chris Henry's valuable third receiver role for the first half of the season. The Bengals also were without their two starting tackles for much of the preseason, although left tackle Levi Jones came back Monday night.

That is a dicey combination of problems, and we're still a few days from September. If everything runs perfectly smoothly, the Bengals will be fine and their dynamic offense will keep rolling. But hoping to avoid problems at quarterback, wide receiver, running back and both tackle positions is a long bet. Maybe they get in trouble for only a game or two, but it's those games that could have a dramatic effect on how the season turns. I get a bad feeling when I see a team without capable reserves ready to pitch in, and that is what I see here.

Houston Texans

This isn't exactly going out on a limb, but with a bunch of people doing wacky things like picking Matt Schaub as their breakout player of the year, I feel compelled to bring some reason to the argument. Doesn't anybody remember Rob Johnson? The Bills dumped a first-round pick to go after Johnson, who had 35 passes in three seasons with the Jaguars and basically one good game. So what happened but Johnson gets involved in a quarterback mess with Doug Flutie and never amounts to anything. Oh, he did throw 12 TD passes one season but a star? Not quite.

I bring all of that up to keep the Schaub hysteria in perspective a bit. He has no business being more than a late-round pick, not with all of the offensive problems Houston has had in its existence. The Texans never have been able to protect the quarterback, their running game has been all over the map and other than Andre Johnson, what good receivers have they had? Maybe Schaub does mark the arrival of a new era. History is a bear to overcome here, though, especially when the rest of the cast is not appreciably better.

Miami Dolphins

Maybe I missed something, but when the Dolphins come up with such an excess of playmakers that they could dangle Chris Chambers as trade bait? They let Wes Welker go, got rid of TE Randy McMichael -- not a star but a nice target -- and QB Daunte Culpepper (see above). OK, new coach Cam Cameron wants his own guys in place, but Ted Ginn Jr. isn't ready to contribute as an every-down receiver and Marty Booker . . . well, he is Marty Booker. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

And where'd this hype about Ronnie Brown come from? Folks are falling all over each other to draft him in the first round. Let me count the problems with this idea: He has a total of 10 career TDs, a career-high of 241 carries and did not play 16 games in either of his two seasons. The Dolphins still haven't figured out who plays where on the offensive line (hey, no rush, guys) and saying that Trent Green is playing like a 37-year-old is kind of insulting to 37-year-olds.

[Hache Man]

The Great Unknown
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
The preseason is a time marked by the unknown. Take young Danny Baugher, for instance. Two weeks ago, the Patriots cut veteran Josh Miller and Baugher was virtually assured the punting gig. In my world, I imagine he's spent the time since sidling up to attractive women and informing them that he was, in fact, the Danny Baugher, punter for the New England Patriots (it's a line every single man should try, by the way). It's possible he mimed a punt for added sex appeal.



But today, Mr. Baugher woke up to a much crueler world. The Pats signed Chris Hanson and he is suddenly out of a job. Baugher not only loses a bunch of money, he loses the infinite sex appeal of a punter in the NFL. Such is life.

The 100KFC is a game built on match-ups. You want to play good players against bad defenses. Simple enough. But as Danny Baugher knows, it's hard to predict where someone stands in the preseason. Is Brandon Jacobs going to be this years Frank Gore? Is Braylon Edwards going to put up top tier WR numbers? Is Romo for real? There are a lot of unknowns now that will be painfully clear come week four.

Once the season is underway, we'll be able to see which teams give are giving up a ton of points to tight ends. Injuries will weaken pass defenses. We'll be able to see how coaching changes in Arizona, Oakland and Dallas have affected their respective team's performance.

In the meantime, however, it's probably best to play it safe. And to help you do so, I've picked out three teams that I can almost promise you will be terrible against the pass, and three more that will be decimated by the run. Until we have a better idea of how other defenses will fare this season, you should check the following teams' match-ups, and strongly consider starting anyone that goes against them.

Three Porous Run Defenses:

The Indianapolis Colts

Until Booger McFarland showed up, the Colts run defense stopped the rush about as well as a wet diaper last year. By the time the playoffs rolled around, though, the squad's defense held like the finest cloth diaper (yes, this is the first of many extended diaper metaphors). Well, McFarland is on IR, and the Colts are destined to once again give up big rushing numbers. Their first three match-ups are against New Orleans, Tennessee and Houston. Reggie Bush makes a great start in Week 1 against these guys, and using Ahman Green in Week 3 (before he is injured) could also be prudent.

The Buffalo Bills

On the plus side, the Bills have Dick Jauron as their head coach. The energy this firecracker exhibits is unmatched in football. When you think "game face," you think Dick Jauron. And the Bills defense will need to feed off his obvious energy if they want any shot this year. Don't get me wrong; they have a squad of very solid young players. Unfortunately, they lost most of their veteran leadership in Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker. There's no doubt that this team is poised to improve, but this season they will be little more than a group of inexperienced and undersized speedsters. Travis Henry, Willie Parker, and Laurence Maroney should all fare well in the first three weeks.

The Tennessee Titans

Considering the only other person who can make it rain is God, you have to imagine that losing Pacman Jones will hurt the Titans' anemic defense. Jones truly is an elite defensive weapon, and seeing as the Titans' defense was terrible with him, I don't think there's a word that accurately describes how bad they will be without him this season. The signing of Corey Simon could help, but his ability to contribute this season is unknown. The lack of run-stoppers in the secondary will make them easy pickings. Their first three opponents are Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New Orleans. It could be Addai's biggest game of the season.

Send Help for these Pass Defenses

The Atlanta Falcons

DeAngelo Hall is fast, and definitely gets the "Most Willing to Shave a Message in His Hair and Have It Backfire" award. But he's not the only person to give himself too much credit. Hall is overrated because of his speed, and he's still the anchor of a terrible Atlanta secondary. Chris Houston and Jimmy Williams provide hope for the future, but the Falcons should still be victimized often this year. Having Joey Harrington run the offense means they should be on the field quite often (because Harrington will throw 80-yard touchdown bombs on first down, obviously). Atlanta faces Minnesota, Jacksonville and Carolina in the first three weeks. Steve Smith probably can't wait.

The Detroit Lions

Woe is the Lions. They have a lot of offensive firepower, but it might not be enough to overcome one of the worst all-around defenses in the NFL. They were brutal last year, and their major offseason defensive move was shipping Dre' Bly off to the Broncos. Run-stopping safety Daniel Bullocks was recently placed on IR, only making matters worse. The Lions play Oakland, Minnesota and Philadelphia in the first three weeks. McNabb is a great start, and since the 100KFC forces you to start 24 QBs over the course of the regular season, it might even make sense to start Culpepper. That's how hard up the Lions are.

The New York Giants

The Giants secondary is full of mediocre talent. Rookie Aaron Ross will eventually be an elite corner, but for now is stuck behind two grizzled vets, making his impact minimal. Michael Strahan will probably return, but that shouldn't make the Giants any better against the pass than they were last year. They should give up plenty when they face Dallas, Green Bay and Washington in the first three weeks.

I suggest you find yourself a grid of the NFL Schedule. Scour the first twelve weeks and find what you believe to be strong match-ups. Try to decide when you want to play studs like Manning, LT or Chad Johnson and mark off those weeks. That way you know when you're going to need to dig a little deeper and you can prepare for it. There's no shame in becoming a dork over this game. Winning involves planning and the potential payoff is huge. Nobody's gonna call you a nerd when you're walking around in your brand new NBC polo shirt, damn it.

[Hache Man]

Camp Battle Roundup





Battles Clearly Won
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Raiders No. 1 Running Back
Winner: LaMont Jordan
Losers: Dominic Rhodes, Justin Fargas, Adimchinobe Echemandu

A back injury sidelined Jordan for a short spell, but he returned with successive outstanding preseason performances. He'll begin splitting with Rhodes in Week 5, but is a fine RB3.

Cowboys No. 1 Running Back
Winner: Julius Jones
Loser: Marion Barber

The new coaching staff won't fiddle with what Bill Parcells left in place. Jones will start games with Barber the "closer." While Barber is unlikely to score 16 times again, he remains the better fantasy pick.

Steelers No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Santonio Holmes
Losers: Nate Washington, Cedrick Wilson

Wilson started the preseason opener but was quickly replaced by Holmes when the second-year wideout fully recovered from an undisclosed offseason surgery. Holmes will keep the job all season.

Saints No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Devery Henderson
Losers: Terrance Copper, David Patten, Lance Moore

Moore may have pulled ahead for the third-receiver job, but starter's status belongs to Henderson, hamstring injury or not. The speedy LSU product will be worth using as a WR3 in the right matchups.

Broncos No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Brandon Marshall
Losers: Brandon Stokley, Rod Smith

Stokley topped Denver's first camp depth chart only because Marshall was on PUP at the time. He's since rebounded strong and reclaimed his position. Smith will miss the season's first six weeks.

Jets No. 1 Quarterback
Winner: Chad Pennington
Loser: Kellen Clemens

Pennington has lost considerable ground to Clemens, who the Jets will want to give a chance late in the season if they fall out of playoff position. Pennington isn't playing well, so that possibility is growing.

Packers No. 3 Receiver
Winner: James Jones
Loser: Ruvell Martin

Jones has a great chance to be the NFL's most productive third-receiver this year because the Packers' line is good, their tight ends are weak, and the offense will go three-wide frequently.

Falcons No. 1 Running Back
Winner: Warrick Dunn
Loser: Jerious Norwood

Dunn won this battle because he's a veteran, definitely not due to his preseason play. His body is breaking down and the explosive Norwood should easily out-produce him across the board this season.

Chargers No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Craig Davis
Losers: Eric Parker, Malcom Floyd

Davis will start Week 1 in place of the injured Parker, who may miss up to six weeks and not be 100 percent all year. The Bolts will use Floyd's size in the red zone, but he's No. 3 for now.

Jaguars No. 1 Receiver
Winner: Ernest Wilford
Losers: Matt Jones, Mike Walker

Wilford won out because he showed up for every day of camp while Jones and Walker nursed injuries. There is a slight chance Jones could overtake him, but he seems more likely to stay in the slot.

Chiefs No. 2 Running Back
Winner: Michael Bennett
Loser: Kolby Smith, Priest Holmes

Smith couldn't move the ball forward in the preseason, so Bennett retained his job by default. Because Larry Johnson is such a risk to break down, his owners must continue to track the pecking order here.

Saints No. 1 Tight End
Winner: Eric Johnson
Losers: Mark Campbell, Billy Miller

Campbell recently got hurt and Johnson created separation from Miller after a slow start in pre-camp work. You could do worse than Johnson in a PPR league, though he's no field-stretcher.

Falcons No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Roddy White
Losers: Michael Jenkins, Laurent Robinson

Jenkins is the slot receiver with Robinson nursing a leg injury. White showed he's the same Roddy he's always been by dropping two catchable balls Monday night, but isn't in much danger because Atlanta values his long speed.

Dolphins No. 1 Quarterback
Winner: Trent Green
Losers: Cleo Lemon, John Beck

Green was named the starter two weeks ago despite not playing well in the preseason. With a miserable line in front of him, he's unlikely to play all 16 games. Both Lemon and Beck could see multiple starts.

Texans No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Kevin Walter
Losers: Jacoby Jones, Keenan McCardell

Jones seems to be everyone's "next Marques Colston" except for coach Gary Kubiak, who confirmed last Sunday that Walter will begin the year starting. Still, expect Jones to pass him by mid-season.

Eagles No. 2 Running Back
Winner: Correll Buckhalter
Loser: Tony Hunt

Brian Westbrook made it through camp unscathed, so it seems he's less of an injury risk this year than in any other. But because of his history, know that Hunt will get goal-line carries if Westbrook gets hurt.

Jaguars No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Dennis Northcutt
Losers: Reggie Williams, Charles Sharon

Williams has moved up to the fourth-receiver spot, but isn't close to Northcutt. New coordinator Dirk Koetter prefers a speed receiver opposite Ernest Wilford, meaning Northcutt's job is safe and sound.

49ers No. 2 Running Back
Winner: Maurice Hicks
Losers: Michael Robinson, Thomas Clayton

Hicks is officially second on the depth chart but Robinson should still see the majority of the work if Gore gets hurt, making the former Penn State QB a better handcuff. Clayton is headed for the practice squad.

Titans No. 2 Receiver
Winner: Eric Moulds
Losers: Chris Davis, Paul Williams

Moulds made an immediate impression upon signing in July and has captured the starting role. Davis seems to have found his niche in the slot. Williams may be destined for waivers.

Jaguars No. 1 Tight End
Winner: Marcedes Lewis
Losers: George Wrighster, Jermaine Wiggins

Wiggins was among the first round of cuts, leaving Lewis atop the depth chart with Wrighster backing him up. The Jags probably won't use both tight ends often, so Lewis has sleeper potential as a TE2.

Chiefs No. 1 Quarterback
Damon Huard v. Brodie Croyle

Croyle played his way out of the job and Huard got the nod. Neither will likely be worth owning during the season in an ultra-conservative offense, but keep in mind that Huard is only keeping the seat warm.

Battles That Are Less Clear

Dolphins No. 1 Running Back
Ronnie Brown v. Jesse Chatman

Brown will be named Miami's starter on Monday. Chatman had an exceptional preseason and looks like a fine backup, as he was behind LaDainian Tomlinson in 2004, but Brown's skills are far superior.

Bills No. 1 Running Back
Marshawn Lynch v. Anthony Thomas v. Dwayne Wright

Coach Dick Jauron didn't formally name a starter, saying only that he plans to use a committee. We expect Lynch's talent to win out and Thomas to play a relatively minor role. Wright is safely third on the depth chart.

Packers No. 1 Running Back
Vernand Morency v. Brandon Jackson

Jackson never won this battle outright, but Morency might not play in the opener anyways. When Green Bay begins showing its real offense and not just a preseason-styled vanilla version, Jackson will have every opportunity to rack up yardage and keep the job all year.

Seahawks No. 2 Receiver
D.J. Hackett v. Nate Burleson

Although coach Mike Holmgren has made nothing official, Hackett started the all-important third exhibition game. It's an indication that the contract-year wideout has formally moved pass Burleson, who should focus on kick returns.

Titans No. 1 Running Back
LenDale White v. Chris Brown v. Chris Henry

The Titans will use a two-man rotation in Week 1, but it's uncertain who will start the game. In the end, White should get more carries overall with Brown playing on third downs. Henry could be inactive.

Patriots No. 2 Receiver
Donte' Stallworth v. Jabar Gaffney v. Reche Caldwell

Stallworth is ahead of Gaffney based on recent preseason games, but we won't know the starter officially until coordinator Josh McDaniels sends out his lineup on opening day. Expect Caldwell to be released.

Broncos No. 2 Running Back
Mike Bell v. Cecil Sapp v. Selvin Young

While a hip injury temporarily opened the door for Sapp, we'll be shocked if Bell isn't the pick. He knows the offense well and is too effective near the goal. Young will have a spot on the practice team.

Panthers No. 2 Receiver
Dwayne Jarrett v. Keary Colbert v. Drew Carter

It'll be Colbert or Carter on opening day, but Jarrett should take over by mid-season. Despite some drops and inconsistency in camp, Carter's role is defined as a speed threat who needs to be on the field.

Bucs No. 2 Receiver
Maurice Stovall v. Ike Hilliard v. David Boston v. Michael Clayton

Stovall's upside is the best but Hilliard has tenure on his side. Clayton could be traded or released, while the results of Boston's urine test are pending. Look for Hilliard to start in Week 1 and catch two passes.

Titans No. 1 Tight End
Bo Scaife v. Ben Hartsock v. Ben Troupe

Even though he's been hurt, Troupe tops the team's official depth chart. Hartsock is a valuable blocker, so his spot isn't in jeopardy. Scaife may be the best player here but is no lock to start in Week 1.

Chiefs No. 2 Receiver
Samie Parker v. Dwayne Bowe v. Jeff Webb

The Chiefs will keep Bowe at flanker (Eddie Kennison's position), so he almost certainly won't start Week 1. Parker is the apparent favorite, but has negligible value. Webb failed to step up in camp.

Colts No. 2 Running Back
DeDe Dorsey v. Kenton Keith v. Clifton Dawson

Dorsey wasn't fantastic this preseason but remains the slight leader. It would probably take a monster finale from Keith for him to move up a notch on the depth chart. Dawson should go to the practice squad.

Titans No. 1 Receiver
Brandon Jones v. Courtney Roby v. Roydell Williams

In a suspect passing attack, Williams has emerged the favorite to be a deep complement to Eric Moulds. Jones has fallen behind and can be dropped in re-draft leagues. Roby's camp mirrored his career: quiet.

Browns No. 1 Quarterback
Charlie Frye v. Derek Anderson v. Brady Quinn

The job is almost certainly Frye's to start the year, but he won't last long. Quinn has outperformed both of the players currently listed ahead of him and proven he's ready to play sooner than later.

Eagles No. 3 Receiver
Hank Baskett v. Jason Avant v. Greg Lewis

Because Avant is the slot, he'll get more playing time than Baskett. Baskett will help inside the 20 and when the Birds go four wide. It's uncertain who would start if Reggie Brown or Kevin Curtis gets hurt.

Cowboys No. 1 Kicker
Nick Folk v. Martin Gramatica

Gramatica's hamstring injury has given the sixth-round pick Folk a significant edge. While it'd be preferable for a potential Super Bowl contender to have a veteran kicker, Folk's done nothing to show he isn't worthy.

Raiders No. 1 Quarterback
Daunte Culpepper v. Josh McCown v. Andrew Walter

Culpepper has been fantastic considering how late he came in but the job is still up for grabs. If McCown tears it up Thursday, he has a good chance. Every rep JaMarcus Russell misses decreases the chances he'll start at all this year.

Giants No. 1 Kicker
Josh Huston v. Lawrence Tynes

Tynes hasn't kicked well or stayed healthy and costs about $600,000 more than Huston. We still won't know the winner of this battle until final cuts are processed this weekend.

Other borderline or less-important battle results:

Vikings No. 1 QB: Tarvaris Jackson > Brooks Bollinger
Eagles No. 2 QB: A.J. Feeley > Kevin Kolb
Bills No. 2 QB: Trent Edwards > Craig Nall
Giants No. 2 QB: Jared Lorenzen > Anthony Wright
Giants No. 1 RB: Brandon Jacobs > Reuben Droughns
Redskins No. 1 RB: Clinton Portis > Ladell Betts
Vikings No. 1 RB: Chester Taylor > Adrian Peterson
Panthers No. 1 RB: DeShaun Foster > DeAngelo Williams
Bears No. 2 RB: Adrian Peterson > Garrett Wolfe
Ravens No. 2 RB: Mike Anderson > Musa Smith
Vikings No. 1 WR: Bobby Wade > Sidney Rice
Giants No. 2 WR: Amani Toomer > Steve Smith
Redskins No. 2 WR: Antwaan Randle El > Brandon Lloyd
49ers No. 2 WR: Arnaz Battle > Ashley Lelie
Steelers No. 3 WR: Nate Washington > Cedrick Wilson
Broncos No. 3 WR: Brandon Stokley > Domenik Hixon
Bengals No. 3 WR: Tab Perry > Antonio Chatman
Browns No. 3 WR: Tim Carter > Travis Wilson
Bucs No. 1 TE: Alex Smith > Anthony Becht
Dolphins No. 1 TE: David Martin > Courtney Anderson
Raiders No. 1 TE: Zach Miller > John Madsen
Bears No. 1 TE: Desmond Clark > Greg Olsen
Packers No. 1 TE: Donald Lee > Bubba Franks
Panthers No. 1 TE: Jeff King > Michael Gaines

[Hache Man]

Little reward in risky picks
The absurdity of the NFL preseason is never on display more so than during this final week of exhibitions. You better get to pregame warm-ups early if you have any hope of seeing your favorite stars in uniform. Coaches just want to iron out roster spots Nos. 40-53 and start game-planning for Week 1.

They will have you believe that training camp and preseason play is of paramount importance, but let's be real: jobs are won in May and June as much as they are in August anymore. That means most of the remaining training camp battles are between players flawed enough to leave the door open to competition.

That does not mean, however, that everybody fighting to start is worth drafting. Some players will be destined for success, though they might start off as reserves on your roster. Just be sure you know what is going on in these spots; there is little worse than drafting a guy who just got stuck on the bench.

Miami Dolphins running back. This gets top billing not so much because it is a true competition but because of the shock value. Ronnie Brown is not really about to lose his job, especially to Jesse Chatman. But the fact coach Cam Cameron thinks he needs to light a fire under Brown should end any crazy ideas about taking Brown in the first round. The third round is more like it, especially if you're getting the feeling the Dolphins are waiting until the regular season to unleash a secret weapon in rookie Lorenzo Booker.
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Tennessee Titans running back and wide receiver. As shocking as it sounds, the Titans ought to let LenDale White start at running back. Give him the ball, see if he stays healthy and see what happens. They know what they have in veteran Chris Brown, and while it isn't bad, it's nothing special. White starting is far from certain, and even if he does, Brown will not be far thanks to White's horrible injury history. White also is a surprisingly good receiver and a potential TD threat, yet this is a situation to stay away from. Rookie Chris Henry is not a factor.

The wide receivers remain muddled, though veteran Eric Moulds has room to make a move after not exerting much effort in preseason. Youngsters such as Brandon Jones and Roydell Williams have not made an impact and do not appear ready to be consistent threats. Tight end Bo Scaife is worth a look, considering he appears to be the only receiver Vince Young looks for regularly.

Atlanta Falcons running back. We might have jumped the gun a bit in proclaiming Jerious Norwood the next great thing when news of Warrick Dunn's back surgery broke just before camp. Dunn got back on the field quickly and earned coach Bobby Petrino's trust with his experience as a blocker and receiver. Norwood missed some time because of a stomach ailment, and the pendulum swung back toward Dunn. Dunn's age (32) is a concern, though he has not missed a game since 2003. He also has a career high of 286 carries, so both will get work, even though Dunn looks like the guy to grab now.

Green Bay Packers running back. Injuries, especially to Vernand Morency, have given this job to rookie Brandon Jackson by default, and he steadily has moved up draft boards. Counting on him as an every-week starter is risky, but adding him as a third back is a high-upside move. It has been tough to get a read on Jackson's potential as a featured back, and his biggest value could come as a TD threat. The Packers do not have anybody else to get the goal-line rushes.

Oakland Raiders quarterback. Daunte Culpepper has established himself as the top quarterback and, with JaMarcus Russell's extended holdout, he could start most of the season. The Raiders will remain conservative offensively early on, so do not expect Culpepper to match the dramatic numbers he used to have with the Minnesota Vikings. But if he secures Oakland's starting role, he will be worth a shot as your backup. Do not expect many rushing stats.

Cleveland Browns quarterback. Rookie Brady Quinn has caught up quickly to his competition, which is not saying much. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson barely have been able to get out of their own way all preseason, and the Browns' best hope is to throw Quinn in as the starter and hope he is passable by midseason. That would mean some ugly moments early on but also some times when Quinn is worth a place on a roster, especially with playmakers such as Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow II in place.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver. David Boston was starting to make the push for Tampa Bay's No. 2 job interesting, bringing back memories of his 1,598-yard season in 2001, before his arrest on a driving under the influence charge put his rise into question. Now it is Maurice Stovall who might get a shot ahead of the disappointing Michael Clayton if the Bucs sour on Boston. Stovall is worth a look early in the season, but he is not nearly as interesting a story as Boston.

Detroit Lions running back. This is pretty much Tatum Bell's spot, and he is a popular sleeper as a dynamic running threat in what should be an explosive offense. But he banged up his shin last week, highlighting how risky that gamble is. If the Lions keep Kevin Jones on the physically unable to perform list into the regular season, a Bell injury means the Lions are down to T.J. Duckett, Brian Calhoun and Aveion Cason. If the Lions activate Jones, he could be pressed into action sooner than expected if Bell gets dinged again. Bell will have some great stretches but is unlikely to be a season-long answer.

Minnesota Vikings wide receivers. This is a bad combination of a muddled depth chart and conservative passing game. Bobby Wade looks like a solid possession receiver, and Troy Williamson is a decent deep threat who drops too many passes on a team that will not throw deep very often. Rookie Sidney Rice does not look ready to make an impact, and recently signed Robert Ferguson could immediately win playing time. Yes, this is a competition, but you don't want the winner.

Kickers. With so many options available, there is no reason to draft anybody in jeopardy of losing his job. But in case you're wondering … inexperienced Josh Huston easily could beat out veteran Lawrence Tynes for the New York Giants job, though neither has been great. John Vaughn's rise in Tennessee hit a ceiling and Rob Bironas' inconsistency could send the Titans to the waiver wire. If Martin Gramatica needs time to recover from his hamstring injury, that will reopen the door for rookie Nick Folk with the Dallas Cowboys, while the Packers are feeling better about rookie Mason Crosby replacing Dave Rayner.

ROOKIE REPORT

We usually get a little overexcited about rookies, especially when they break off fancy moves in a preseason game against a backup defense. But whenever you start to think you have uncovered a rookie destined to star, remember there have been only three rookie 1,000-yard receivers in the last eight years.

Running backs are more likely to make an impact, though that realistic talent pool generally is limited to first-day draft picks. You know you want to draft a rookie or two; some to consider, aside from obvious prospects Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson.

Brian Leonard. He has shown a spark given extensive work with starter Steven Jackson sitting out most of the preseason. Leonard will get some work regardless and has been good enough to be worth a look if Jackson were injured. Add him to your running back handcuff list because of how expensive Jackson is to acquire.

Tony Hunt. The Philadelphia Eagles are giving him a look as a short-yardage back, and Hunt has become a common late pick. Remember, though, that the Eagles rarely lean on rookies much and starter Brian Westbrook is a reliable TD threat, even if he is injury-prone.

Calvin Johnson. Almost all expectations for Johnson are out of reach. Somebody in your league will think he will dominate like Randy Moss did as a rookie (1,313 yards, 17 TDs), but that is unrealistic. Did you forget how good Roy Williams is and the 98 catches Mike Furrey had last season? If Johnson approaches 1,000 yards and six to eight TDs, he will have had a dream season.

Craig Davis. The San Diego Chargers return one of the worst receiving groups in the league, especially for a team that went 14-2 last year and led the league in scoring (by more than four points). Davis drops into a starting job, and possibly the No. 1 role, after veteran Eric Parker's foot injury sidelined him for a big part of the season. Vincent Jackson also is on the rise, but he is inconsistent. Davis has an opportunity to seize, though Antonio Gates and LaDainiain Tomlinson will keep most of the scoring chances.

James Jones. Pencil Jones in as one of the late-preseason risers. Donald Driver's foot injury and Greg Jennings' quiet preseason have made Jones a hot prospect. He will be at least the No. 3 receiver and possibly more, depending on Driver and Jennings. Jones has made plenty of fine catches thus far, but do not get too carried away. Jennings looks like he is being kept under wraps by design, and he had an excellent start to his rookie season before injuries hit. If Driver is ready for Week 1, Jones' role will be substantial yet limited.

Anthony Gonzalez. Plenty of people want to make him a high pick simply because he plays for the Indianapolis Colts, something that should be good for him in the long term. For now he is stuck behind Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in an offense that features the pass less than a few years ago and likes to use its tight ends. Think of Gonzalez as another Wayne. Wayne had 345 yards and zero TDs as a rookie and did not hit 1,000 yards until his fourth season. Gonzalez will not take off until either Harrison or Wayne is out of the way.

Dwayne Jarrett. The Carolina Panthers need a big receiver such as Jarrett and another threat behind star Steve Smith. So Jarrett certainly will get an opportunity, and you can spend a late pick if you have the flexibility. He will get some goal-line chances but not enough playing time.

Robert Meachem, Dwane Bowe, Ted Ginn. None of these first-round receivers have done anything noteworthy and seem relegated to a longer development curve. Meachem at least is in a dynamic offense, while Bowe has a poor passing game to overcome and Ginn a crowded depth chart.

Jacoby Jones. Look here for the 2007 version of Devin Hester. Don't expect much out of him as a wide receiver, though he will see some time. He has made a preseason splash as a returner and is worth a pick if your league rewards individuals; he also ups the value of the Houston Texans' special teams.

Greg Olsen. He is getting a lot of hype as the possible final piece to the Rex Grossman puzzle, but as we've seen, Grossman has plenty of other issues to work through. Yes, Olsen might turn into an excellent receiver; however, his issue as a rookie is splitting time with Desmond Clark. Let's not consider him the next Gates just yet; he is a backup at best.

Zach Miller. The Raiders are throwing Miller right into the mix, and his downfield ability is crucial to a team that needs regular receiving options. The passing game remains a question, but he will get plenty of playing time and be a threat in the red zone. Plus, he is a receiving tight end who wears No. 45. That alone makes him worth a pick.

AROUND THE LEAGUE:

Remember the name J.T. O'Sullivan. Why? Because Lions starter Jon Kitna, 35, is dealing with back spasm and because No. 2 Dan Orlovsky's job is in jeopardy because of injuries and spotty play. O'Sullivan might open the season as Detroit's backup, and coordinator Mike Martz seems to love the guy. Why is that important? Because you had never heard of Kurt Warner or Marc Bulger either before Martz made them stars. O'Sullivan has been around a bit (the Lions are his sixth team, third in the NFC North) and has never attempted a regular-season pass. A perfect Martz project.

Damon Huard took over what used to be a competition and will start at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, but that was a fight nobody won. Huard missed time because of a calf injury, and Brodie Croyle took himself out of the running by playing like he needs at least one more redshirt season. Huard will have a short leash, and you should not expect any of the occasional magic he produced last year in relief of Trent Green. The Chiefs will give Croyle a shot at some point and Huard is no more than a one-week emergency fill-in.

The New York Jets' quarterback situation isn't a controversy just yet. A discussion is more accurate, considering Chad Pennington helped the team to the playoffs last year and that type of veteran will not lose his job in preseason. Kellen Clemens was drafted for the future, meaning Pennington is not beyond benching in-season. That obscures the fact that Pennington is not a great fantasy pick anyhow because of the team's offense and his arm strength. Take him off your board completely if you're worried about Clemens moving in.

[Hache Man]

When to sit Carson Palmer
In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, I posed a question that stands up there in the pantheon of difficult-to-answer conundrums like "Is anyone going to eat the last buffalo wing?" and "Do I look fat in these?"

"When is Alex Smith better than Carson Palmer?"

Of course, the initial reaction to the question is just a simple "No". Smith is a developing quarterback on a solid team, but to compare him to the All-World Palmer? They're not in the same stratosphere. And, well, about 95% of the time, you'd be right.

The correct answer to this question, for the purposes of this column, is "Week 1 of the 2007 NFL Season."

My name is Bill Barnwell, and I'm a contributing editor at Football Outsiders, the statistical analysis website that breaks down football in the way that people like Bill James and Baseball Prospectus have developed statistics and guides for baseball.
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What we've done in the past four years is develop a series of statistics that do a better job of determining what wins games on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis than what people normally use for metrics, things like yards and the previous year's win totals and what-not. Our core stats are DVOA and DPAR. For a quick explanation of how these stats work, check out the bottom of this column.

***

In the essay I wrote for the book, I evaluated how players of different levels of talent and experience do versus five different tiers of defenses, ranging from great to average to replacement-level.

My findings can be summated into two points:

1. All players at a given position are affected by defenses to the same extent.

While there are rare exceptions, over the course of time, great players suffer just as much mediocre ones do. Peyton Manning's affected when he plays against the Ravens passing defense just as much as Charlie Frye is -- the difference is that Manning has more to lose, because he normally gains more points than Frye.

2. Quarterbacks and running backs lose about a third of their value when playing the best defenses in the league as opposed to the worst; wide receivers lose about 15% of their value, and there's no real pattern for tight ends.

Of course, not even fantasy football is played on paper, so you can't just take LaDainian Tomlinson's typical performance, subtract a percentage, and then compare it to someone else. You have to consider many other things -- namely, the context of the matchup and the opposition. Do they stop running backs who catch the ball out of the backfield? Will the team be winning and running the ball in the second half, or losing and throwing desperately to catch up? Is the player suffering from a nagging injury? Have the players around him changed? Is the protection alright?

It's impossible to account for all these things, but using them as a background, you can also account for the defense he'll be facing using the defensive stats available on our website. And, on average, a great defense will cost a player 30% of his value as opposed to an awful one. There will always be days where Larry Johnson gets 44 points against the Ravens (well, maybe not anymore) and Maurice Morris only goes for three against Indy. What this column aims to do is present the likeliest scenarios to you based upon the data we've collected in an attempt to isolate matchups that are good or bad for your fantasy team.

As for Smith and Palmer? In Week 1, Palmer goes up against the Ravens, whose pass defense (-25.2% DVOA) was best in the league last year. Palmer averaged 12 fantasy points (in a standard configuration) per game against the Ravens last year. Meanwhile, Smith is up against the Cardinals -- he averaged 12.5 points per game against them. While that half-point isn't a huge difference, he had 18 points in his Week 1 game against Arizona; by the time their second game rolled around, Antonio Bryant was gone and LT Jonas Jennings was hurt and not protecting Smith's blindside. With Darrell Jackson in the fold, Jennings (and Joe Staley) on the field instead of Kwame "The Human Turnstile" Harris, and Chris Henry suspended, all signs are pointing to Alex Smith outplaying Carson Palmer for at least one week. Next week, we'll preview Week 1 and detail the fantasy matchups to look out for.

How our system works

A good example is a typical Carolina Panthers drive. Jake Delhomme lofts up an eight-yard pass that Steve Smith catches. Smith dekes out three defenders, gets a cheerleader's phone number as he runs down the sideline, stops to film a DirecTV commercial, and gets tackled on the opponent's two-yard line after gaining 74 yards. A great play for your NFL team and your fantasy team, if you have Smith or Delhomme. On the next play, DeShaun Foster runs the ball in from two yards out. A good play for all parties involved, again, but not a particularly difficult one for Foster. NFL teams convert from the two five out of six times.

It's with this in mind that we developed our two core statistics, DVOA and DPAR. DVOA breaks down every play, assigning it a value based upon how much closer it brings a team towards scoring a touchdown. Then, we compare that play and its value to the average success value of a play to "similar" plays, as judged by down and distance, field location, the time remaining, and the difference in score. A three-yard gain by Donovan McNabb on third-and-20 is different than a three-yard gain by Brian Westbrook on third-and-1.

Finally, we adjust the value based upon the defense the play is up against. Those three yards would have meant a lot more against the Ravens last year than it would have against the Colts. We then convert this into a percentage -- a 0% DVOA would be league-average. DPAR measures how often a player does versus the same level of performance that would be provided by a replacement-level player, freely-available off the street (think David Terrell here). It accounts for the value of a player running the ball at a 0% DVOA 300 times as opposed to ten.

Using DVOA, we rate both teams and players on their performance over the course of the season, and use these metrics to gain a better understanding of their levels of play as the season goes along. Since DVOA adjusts on a play-by-play basis, we can evaluate how a particular team does against tight ends or inside the red zone. Of course, since we all play fantasy football, this data is easily applicable. We'll be back next week with some surprising Week 1 plays.

[Hache Man]

Preseason in Review
There are only so many ways to say we like Brandon Jacobs.

Of course, the end of the preseason (28 teams wrapped up last night) only means the start of our coverage. After the flurry of cuts that will happen in the next two days, we'll flip the switch to regular season mode, with our waiver pickups, weekly Goal Line Stand rankings, and Season Pass projections starting up on Tuesday. Our new columns from Matt Pitzer and Football Outsiders have already begun.

Before I hand off the majority of Daily Dose duties to the capable hands of Aaron Gleeman, let's take a final broad look back at what players went up and down during the preseason. If you've been paying attention to the Dose all month, you may already know many of these.
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Rising

LenDale White & Chris Brown, Titans - Yes, both can rise. Brown wasn't even signed until late June, and had a lot to prove. White ran with the Tennessee starters for more than a half on Thursday night, ripping off a 21-yard run and throwing a devastating block that allowed Vince Young to score a touchdown.

This looks like a committee early in the year, with White as the lead back and Brown taking third downs. Chris Henry is an afterthought.

Leon Washington, Jets - Thomas Jones' injury is a good reminder that Leon will have a big role for a backup.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots - Recovery from shoulder surgery went as planned.

Ladell Betts, Redskins - Clinton Portis looks like a riskier pick than he did during the summer.

Kellen Winslow, Browns - Recovery from microfracture surgery went better than reasonable expectations.

Nate Burleson, Seahawks - He's still not draftable, but a strong preseason put him back on the radar. He may be Seattle's third receiver ahead of Bobby Engram.

Demetrius Williams, Ravens - Like a poor man's Chris Henry (CIN), Williams could emerge into a red zone force as a third receiver.

Kenny Watson, Bengals - Cincinnati hasn't signed another veteran running back yet, although Chris Perry is threatening to avoid the PUP list. We'll find out by Saturday.

Charlie Frye, Browns - Hung on to starting job, making him draftable in leagues that start two quarterbacks.

Matt Schaub and Alex Smith, Texans and 49ers - I take preseason action with a boulder of salt, but both young quarterbacks enjoyed an excellent month.

James Jones and Jacoby Jones, Packers and Texans - Small school rookie wideouts make good. Just don't pull a hammy rushing to draft them ahead of quality veterans. We'd take James first.

Ernest Wilford, Jaguars - A year after the hype, Wilford may help clean up Reggie Williams and Matt Jones' mess.

Daunte Culpepper, Raiders - He'll probably have a better season than last year when owners took him as a QB1, although he's still a flier pick at best.

LaMont Jordan, Raiders - Solidified primary back role, at least for a month.

Jerry Porter and Terrell Owens, Raiders and Cowboys - Didn't get suspended or upset the coaching staff. Yet.

Craig Davis, Chargers - Will start with Eric Parker hurt.

Mike Williams, Raiders - Going to make the team.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons - We still don't want to draft him, but he recovered much quicker than expected and looks like the Week 1.

Patrick Crayton, Cowboys - See Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn.

Amani Toomer, Giants Practically the only Giant receiver that didn't struggle with injuries.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles - All systems are go.

Tatum Bell, Lions - Will get at least five starts, although two are against the Bears and Vikings. Week 1 against the Raiders looks inviting.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings and Bears - The rookie star version stayed healthy and looked explosive. The Bears role player easily held on to the backup job behind Cedric Benson.

** Get a chance to own all these players in our free $100,000 Challenge game.

Volatile

Brandon Jones, Titans - After yo-yoing in-and-out of the starting lineup all month, Jones played with the first team Thursday for the entire first half and caught a touchdown. Don't give up on him yet.

Brandon Jackson, Packers - His play and his pass-protection were inconsistent. But Vernand Morency's injury problems ultimately kept Jackson where he started.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos - This Brandon started slow, but earned his way back to Rotoworld sleeper status.

Maurice Stovall, Bucs - Started strong, but couldn't separate from David Boston and Ike Hilliard in the end. He'll probably start in Week 1, but he didn't have a great month.

Falling

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins - Jesse Chatman?@! Really? We still have faith, so this was only a small move down round two.

Clinton Portis, Redskins - Sat out the preseason finale like he wanted. He practiced five times all month and Ladell Betts is going to play a big role, at least in September.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills - Didn't exactly take hold of the starting job. The Bills will probably open the season in a committee more than we expected.

Donald Driver, Packers - We'd still draft him as a late WR2, but foot injuries are never a good thing.

Donte' Stallworth, Patriots - The depth at receiver in New England will make him inconsistent.

Terry Glenn, Cowboys - Questionable for Week 1.

Torry Holt, Rams - May not be 100% for a while.

Vernand Morency, Packers - Didn't exactly quiet those durability questions.

Robert Meachem, Saints - Looks like a redshirt year.

DeDe Dorsey, Colts - Hasn't emerged from the backup running back pack for the Colts.

Chris Henry, Titans - No longer draftable, unless you are in a deep keeper league.

Reuben Droughns, Giants - Part-time fullback is not what owners want to hear.

Derek Hagan, Dolphins - Fourth receiver behind Ted Ginn.

Tab Perry, Bengals - Hasn't impressed in camp. Don't expect him to play a big role.

Jeff Webb, Chiefs - Surprisingly quiet. Had a good chance to earn a starting job, and it didn't happen.

Kolby Smith, Chiefs - Couldn't get ahead of Michael Bennett on the depth chart.

Michael Clayton, Bucs - May not make the final roster, and definitely won't be a fantasy factor.

Lorenzo Booker, Dolphins - Jesse Chatman emergence complicates role.

Chris Simms, Bucs - Probably headed for injured reserve.

If it seems like there are a lot of marginal players here, that's because we don't take the preseason too seriously for the stars. See everyone on the other side.

[Hache Man]

Extended Holidays
While America takes Monday off to celebrate the working man, over 600 NFL players released this weekend are wondering where their next paycheck will come from. The number balloons over 1,000 if we count the cuts that started last Monday.
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Like most cut days, the most notable names were the ones that weren't released. Rumors flew in New England that Randy Moss was at risk, but he made the team. Reche Caldwell wasn't so lucky, although he didn't find out until Monday. Chris Simms survived in Tampa, while Reggie Williams is still a Jacksonville Jaguar. Mike Bell is on the Denver roster, although it may not be for long after upstart Selvin Young took his backup running back job.

While I'm counting my blessings that I have the opportunity to work on Labor Day, let's take a look at six players losing (or changing) jobs this weekend you should know.

1. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars - Fantasy owners can probably give up on Leftwich as an option in 2007. Atlanta hasn't showed much interest yet, and it would be difficult for Leftwich to find a spot where he could start anytime soon. Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Atlanta all make sense as potential destinations, but there is no front-runner yet.

2. DeDe Dorsey, Colts - This release burned me in a league where I drafted Dorsey as a late lottery ticket. Despite starting the final preseason game and being mentioned as the favorite for the backup gig to Joseph Addai all summer, Dorsey was released in favor of former Canadian League star Kenton Keith. Dorsey was out of practice squad eligibility and former Colts runner Clifton Dawson was claimed by the Bengals, so the Colts are suddenly very thin at running back. Keith will be among the players discussed in tomorrow's Waiver Wired.

The moral of the story: never trust anyone named DeDe.

3. Eric Shelton, Panthers - The transaction wire is often the quiet final resting spot for the fantasy hyped of years past. Speaking for dynasty league owners everywhere, I send a hearty thank you to the Panthers for allowing us to put Shelton out of his misery.

4. Wali Lundy, Texans - Speaking of which, Lundy was a trendy mid-round pick last year as Houston's Week 1 starter. Now he's out of the league. Samkon Gado won the third running back job in Houston over him this year.

5. Packers acquire Ryan Grant, John Kuhn - Here are a couple deep sleepers. With Vernand Morency slowly returning to health, Green Bay is looking for some life at running back. Grant, the former Golden Domer, was acquired for a conditional draft pick and could eventually challenge Brandon Jackson for carries if he excels. Kuhn is a fullback type that could be used near the goal line.

6. Antonio Pittman - The fourth-round pick out of Ohio State was cut by the Saints because he wasn't able to perform in passing downs as well as undrafted rookie Pierre Thomas or play special teams as well as veteran Aaron Stecker.

Claimed by St. Louis (Cincy also tried), Pittman gets second life in St. Louis as a threat to Brian Leonard. Evan Silva and I spent too long Sunday night arguing over Pittman. My take: most guys who get cut in their first training camp get cut for a reason. They don't make it. His take: Pittman is a talented runner who could be a big drain on Leonard if Steven Jackson gets hurt. Watch practice reports on Pittman closely.

Veterans Coming Back

* The other big news of the weekend other than all the job shuffling was the return of many fantasy starters to the practice field. Donald Driver, Brandon Jackson, and Vernand Morency all returned to practice for the Packers on Sunday.

Jackson is the only one who is certain to play, and start, in Green Bay's season opener against Philadelphia. Driver is expected to be limited in practice for most of the week, and will truly test his foot closer to Friday. Don't consider him a lock to play just yet. Morency sat out 11-on-11 work Sunday, and will play only a limited role this week if he's active.

* Thomas Jones is expected to fully return to practice this week in anticipation of a difficult first test in New York against the Patriots. New York only kept two running backs on their final roster, a great sign that they aren't worried about Jones' health.

*** Jones won't be a great option in Week 1 in the $100,000 Challenge. There is still plenty of time to sign up if you haven't done so.

* Kevin Jones was not placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, after all. The Lions felt that Jones could return to practice shortly, and he wouldn't have been able to practice with the team if he was officially out of the first six weeks of the season.

Jones owners shouldn't expect him to play for Detroit for a few more weeks, and he may not be a true fantasy starter again until after the Lions' Week 6 bye. Still, those who took him as a mid-round gamble should feel encouraged.

* With Mike Bell on the trading block, Denver running back Selvin Young is entrenched as the "clear" No. 2 running back behind Travis Henry, according to the Denver Post. Clear in Mike Shanahan's world may only last a few weeks, but he needs to be picked up in all leagues. More on him tomorrow in Waiver Wired.

[Hache Man]

Where Will Leftwich Land?
After six months spent killing time by writing the baseball Daily Dose, I'm back atop the football Daily Dose depth chart. There was talk of Rotoworld adding some competition for the position via a second-day draft pick and Gregg Rosenthal's Kordell Stewart-like versatility makes him a constant threat to steal reps, but from now until January I'll be keeping you up to speed on all the news and notes from around football each day.

I could bore you further by delving into the vicious training-camp battle that I emerged from to claim this job (it involved lots of hazing, and I'm not even a rookie). And it's tempting to add to the Rosenthal-Stewart comparison by making the case for Evan Silva and Patrick Dahl as the Antwaan Randle El and Seneca Wallace of fantasy football writers. Instead, if we can all just agree to be friends for the next five months I'll stop babbling and get to the notes from around football …

* Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome revealed Monday that he's had "a couple of small conversations" with Byron Leftwich, who's reportedly drawn interest from at least seven teams since being released by Jacksonville over the weekend. The Ravens are said to have been fans of Leftwich since the 2003 draft, when they unsuccessfully attempted to move up to select him before eventually grabbing Kyle Boller instead.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Whether Leftwich winds up with the Ravens or somewhere else, the chances of him having a big fantasy impact this season are slim. He'd be behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and with Atlanta apparently not interested there are few remaining spots (Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland) where he'd have a shot at becoming an immediate starter. At 27 years old Leftwich likely has quite a few starts left in his future, but his value for this season is rapidly disappearing.

* Meanwhile, Leftwich's exit from Jacksonville means that one of my favorites, David Garrard, is the clear-cut starter for the Jaguars. An inconsistent passer, Garrard has nonetheless racked up solid totals through the air during his five-year career. In what's essentially slightly more than one full season's worth of combined playing time, Garrard has completed 313-of-539 (58.1 percent) passes for 3,543 yards and 18 touchdowns while being picked off 13 times.

Those aren't huge numbers and the Jaguars' passing game doesn't figure to be especially strong, but what makes Garrard so intriguing is his running ability. He's rushed 115 times for 637 yards (5.5 YPC) and six scores during his career, including 47 carries for 250 yards (5.3 YPC) in 11 games last season. While Garrard's performance figures to vary quite a bit from week-to-week, I wouldn't hesitate to value him as a top-15 quarterback. He's a very solid QB2 option.

* Kevin Jones avoided the PUP list, meaning that he'll begin the season on the active roster and is eligible to play at any time. He practiced Monday for the first time since suffering a fractured foot in Week 14 of last season and said afterward that he "felt good." However, Jones won't play in Week 1 and is unlikely to see action in at least the first several games. Tatum Bell will take his place in the starting lineup, with T.J. Duckett likely seeing short-yardage work.

With Jones out and No. 2 overall pick Calvin Johnson joining the party, offensive coordinator/air-traffic controller Mike Martz may be tempted to air it out even more after only the Packers attempted more passes (630) than the Lions (596) last season. Coach Rod Marinelli said Sunday that Johnson hasn't earned a starting job yet, but Martz utilizes enough three-receiver sets that he'll essentially be a starter whether he's second or third on the depth chart.

Mike Furrey will be lining up in the slot, with Johnson and Roy Williams on the outside, and Jon Kitna will once again be throwing early and often. However, expecting huge stats from Johnson immediately might be a mistake. Williams remains Kitna's No. 1 target and Furrey is a perfect fit in the slot, so don't be shocked if Furrey ends up with more targets early on. Johnson is still a long-term stud in a perfect situation for piling up numbers soon enough, so be patient.

* While the series tended to focus more on the team's locker-room dance skills or the beautiful women married to Brodie Croyle and Tony Gonzalez than actual football—to be clear, that's not a complaint— HBO's Hard Knocks provided an interesting glimpse into Priest Holmes' situation. Holmes showed up to Chiefs camp after sitting out all of last season with a potentially career-threatening neck injury, and it immediately became clear that no one was taking his comeback particularly seriously.

Even with Larry Johnson's holdout making him absent for much of the time, Holmes spent his days riding a stationary bike or going through plays on the sidelines by himself like a shadow boxer. At no point did it seem as though the coaching staff was close to counting on him as a contributor of any kind this season, yet Holmes seemingly acted as if he was on the verge of cementing his place on the depth chart, even saying that he'd settle for being a third-down back.

After being scratched from the final preseason game, Holmes was placed on the non-football injury list, which means that he's ineligible to play through Week 6. At that point the Chiefs will have three weeks to move Holmes to the 53-man roster or he'll officially be ruled out for the season. That's the likely end to the sad story, and readers of Pancake Blocks who're smart enough to trust Gregg Rosenthal's analysis of the strange situation gave up on him long ago.

Red Zone: Terry Glenn (knee) went through individual drills Monday and is expected to start in Week 1 … Donald Driver (foot) sounds likely to play in Week 1 after he reportedly "appeared healthy in practice" Sunday … With Vernand Moreny (knee) hurting and Noah Herron (knee) on season-ending injured reserve, rookie Brandon Jackson will get the Week 1 start over DeShawn Wynn … Showing some confidence in Randy Moss' (hamstring) status, the Patriots released last season's leading receiver, Reche Caldwell … L.J. Smith (hernia) practiced Monday, but said afterward that he's at just "75 percent" and isn't guaranteed to play in Week 1 … Marcus Tubbs' season-ending knee injury makes it likely that the Seahawks will once again struggle against the run this season … Placed on the PUP list Sunday, fourth-round pick Michael Bush (leg) will be sidelined through at least Week 6 and could miss the entire season … In true Patriots fashion, Richard Seymour was placed on the PUP list Saturday and will miss at least the first six weeks after little information was revealed about his surgically repaired knee all offseason.

Two-Minute Drill: After a strong preseason from Daily Dose favorite and third-round pick Jacoby Jones, the Texans cut veteran Keenan McCardell loose … Following eight total carries in two seasons, the Panthers parted ways with former second-round pick Eric Shelton … Chris Cooley's six-year contract extension with the Redskins is worth $30 million, with $14 million in guaranteed money that can buy an awful lot of Jim Beam shots … Given Maurice Morris' underwhelming performance last season, Alvin Pearman could emerge as Shaun Alexander's primary backup after being acquired from the Jaguars … It's bad news and worse news for Tim Hasselbeck, with a release from the Giants meaning that he now has more time to spend listening to his The View co-star wife … Once a trendy sleeper pick based on his 6-foot-6 frame and potential red-zone impact, Clarence Moore was released by the Ravens … After ending his holdout, Larry Johnson saw limited action in the final preseason game, rushing three times for a dozen yards.

[Hache Man]

Room for Improvement
The truth comes out Sunday. After months of speculation, maneuvering, and misdirection, we find out where each depth chart stands and who is really hurt. We find out Mike Shanahan's running back rotation, whether Jesse Chatman will really be a factor in Miami, and how ready Clinton Portis is for game action. The rest is just noise; Sundays don't lie.

Actions, not press conferences, usually tell the story in the NFL. Torry Holt is worried about the shape of his knee, but he played during the preseason, unlike many others who aren't making headlines. Thomas Jones' stock has fallen in drafts recently, but the Jets are only carrying two running backs on their roster. They aren't worried.

Judging by the emails I've received in recent days, it's time to break the all-time record for the earliest "Don't panic" column. Too many owners are dropping quality veteran wideouts for the coolest rookie Jones they can find. Yes, grab Selvin Young if possible (more on him later). But don't drop Leon Washington or another young proven backup to get him.

***

This is the first Waiver Wired of the season, so let's go over the rules. Every Tuesday, I'll go over the best available pickups at every fantasy position except kicker. Every league setup is different, so I'll try to include players who may be available in shallow leagues, and lesser-known players that are worth trying in deep leagues. I give a recommendation for each player, such as "Should be owned in 12-team leagues." This doesn't mean you should own him, just that he's good enough to improve one of the rosters in your league. If I write, "Must be owned," or "Should be owned in all leagues," I'm recommending doing what you can to find a spot. Let's get to the players.

Quarterbacks

David Garrard, Jaguars - Disappointed Byron Leftwich owners aren't the only ones who should make a strong play for David Garrard this week. Rotoworld projects Garrard as the QB15 this year, meaning we'd take him over many rostered quarterbacks like J.P. Losman, Jake Delhomme, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, and Jeff Garcia.

Garrard is a classic example of a player who is better in fantasy leagues than real life. He's neatly started 16 games over the last two years. He's rushed for 422 yards and three touchdowns over that span, which could make him the third-best rushing quarterback in the league to Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson.

His passing numbers (2,852 yards, 14 TD, 10 INT) are predictably mediocre, but they are good enough when combined with the rushing totals. Waiver Wired is all about improving the bottom of your roster incrementally throughout the year. Picking up Garrard as your QB2 will be a good start for many teams.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Jason Campbell, Redskins - Campbell is easily our highest-ranked quarterback that is available in over half of fantasy leagues nationwide. Unlike most first-year starters, Campbell stood tall in the pocket last year. He's not afraid of the pass rush, and his college track record indicates his accuracy should improve.

It's not a surprise Campbell and the Redskins offense struggled in year one under Al Saunders, but there are many signs pointing towards an improvement. A strong running game, offensive line, and tight end will make up for the sad lack of wideout depth behind Santana Moss. Campbell is riskier, but we see him as a high ceiling upgrade over all the quarterbacks we mentioned in Garrard's blurb. He will also be a plus rushing the ball.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Daunte Culpepper, Raiders - Even the Raiders don't know what to expect from Culpepper if he starts in Week 1, as expected. I am certain he's got the easiest matchup possible: at home against the Lions. Detroit's secondary should be one of the worst in the league. A positive showing could propel Culpepper towards keeping the job all season, and he has a favorable schedule in the middle of the year.

I don't believe in Culpepper enough to make him a QB2 unless my starter is Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. But in 14-team leagues or ones with rosters deep enough to carry three quarterbacks, Culpepper is a great option as a QB3. The skill position talent around him is there. He's a lottery ticket, and that's hard to find at quarterback.

Recommendation: Worth owning in deep leagues

Damon Huard, Chiefs - He will be an option in two-quarterback leagues against the Texans this week and the Vikings in Week 3. Other than that, the schedule is difficult and I don't trust Huard's teammates.

Recommendation: Spot starter in two quarterback leagues

Charlie Frye, Browns - He'll get the Week 1 start against the Steelers, but the schedule is brutal early in the year. Brady Quinn will probably take over after Cleveland's bye, so Frye is only an option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.

Recommendation: Worth a look in two quarterback leagues

Running Backs

Selvin Young, Broncos - Most fantasy owners hate Mike Shanahan for the yearly machinations he performs with the running back depth chart; I love him. In this oversaturated fantasy news world, Shanny gives us true sleepers. I play in a dynasty league with 16 teams and 44-man rosters (we start 11 IDPs), and no one owned Selvin Young until last week. Same goes for Cecil Sapp, Mike Bell a year ago, and Reuben Droughns back in 2004 when he went from a backup fullback to a fantasy starter.

Shanahan intentionally messes with us. I respect him for that. On Monday's depth chart, he listed Bell and Sapp ahead of Young, even though the Denver Post has reported constantly that Young is the "clear" No. 2. Even Shanahan said Monday that Bell could become a "Pro Bowl fullback," once he concentrates on his new position.

We'll only know the truth on Sunday, but I expect Young to be next in line behind Travis Henry. There isn't going to be a better lottery ticket this time of year than a backup Denver running back, especially when the starter has injury concerns. Young is a top-50 value back right now.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Andre Hall, Broncos - Most lottery tickets don't pay off. While Young gets all the attention, deep league owners may want to consider Andre Hall, who is reportedly third in line at the position. It's not a crazy idea, depending on your format, to pick both players up to hedge your bets.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Kenton Keith, Colts - We could list Keith's stats from the Canadian Football League, but what's the difference? He's 27 years old, has never taken an NFL snap, has a history of fumbling, and is versatile enough to make the Colts as their backup running back. Joseph Addai has never carried a full load. Two talented SEC backs, Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown, have shown that the transition to workhorse isn't always seamless.

It's amazing that the Colts backup running back could be available in almost every fantasy league heading into Week 1, but he shouldn't stay on waivers for long. Addai owners should pick him up right away, and Keith is probably a better option than the last running back on your team.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Kenny Watson, Bengals - Like the Colts, the Bengals are an elite offense whose backup running back is getting ignored by fantasy leagues. I waited for the Bengals to pick up another veteran after the first set of cuts and they did put in waivers claims: for Antonio Pittman and Colts undrafted rookie Clifton Dawson.

The Rams snagged Pittman, and Dawson isn't a huge threat to Watson's third-down back status. The Bengals want to lessen Rudi Johnson's load this year, and that means Watson will play a lot on passing downs. He might stay in the role even if Johnson is hurt, but he's worth owning in all PPR leagues.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all PPR leagues

Clifton Dawson, Bengals - For now, he's a curiosity. But read the reports coming out of Cincinnati closely. Rudi owners will want to add him in future weeks if it becomes clear that Dawson would be the go-to back if Johnson gets hurt.

Recommendation: Worth monitoring

Ryan Grant, Packers - Green Bay gave up a sixth-round pick in 2008 for Grant, who had a great training camp in New York. Like the trade for Vernand Morency last year, the Packers obtained Grant with the intent on him contributing right away. Grant is probably the number three back to open the year, but he could challenge Morency and Brandon Jackson for carries later. He's a nice dynasty league pickup.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

For my take on Jesse Chatman, head over to Pancake Blocks.

Wide Receivers

Patrick Crayton, Cowboys - Crayton was one of our favorite "sleepers" even before Terry Glenn was hurt, largely because of the likelihood that Glenn or T.O. would get hurt during the year.

He probably was drafted in most leagues that use the Rotoworld cheat sheets, but he's still available in over 70% of the leagues in the country. Glenn isn't sure if he'll play in Week 1, and he might only play as a third receiver if he does. That would make Crayton a rare waiver pickup that could go straight into the starting lineup. The Cowboys are facing the shaky Giants secondary, and he could put up Mike Furrey-like PPR numbers as a starter.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

James Jones and Jacoby Jones, Packers and Texans - I saw an owner in grab these two on the eighth/ninth round turn in the NFFC on Saturday. Let's all pause, and take a deep breath on the flying Jones'.

They are roster-worthy in most leagues, but don't get carried away. They are still rookies, and Jacoby is a rookie third receiver on the Texans. The odds on them being top-25 options in December are still longer than Mike Shanahan's nose.

James is the better bet because of the Packers offense and Donald Driver's foot. Driver participated in a portion of practice Monday, but isn't a lock to play in Week 1 against Philadelphia until he fully tests his injured foot. James also has the advantage of playing flanker on a team that tends to ignore its split end – Greg Jennings. He could challenge Jennings in yardage even if Driver stays healthy and that makes him a fun WR5 to own, especially in PPR leagues.

Jacoby has superior athleticism and should be starting in Houston before long. But his skill set may rely more on big plays, while James' possession receiver game is likely to be more consistent.

Recommendation: James Jones is worth owning in 12-team leagues, Jacoby Jones is worth a look in 12-team leagues, and should be owned in deep leagues.

Ernest Wilford, Jaguars - Wilford was a disappointment last season, but he's currently a number one receiver (really) with a solid history of production as a pro. He's also got a rugged playing style that leads to red zone targets. I'd take him over either Jones.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Roddy White, Falcons - The Atlanta offense is a total mystery, but the most likely outcome for the flying Harringtons is somewhere between unmitigated disaster and mitigated disaster. That said, if Vegas were taking odds for their leading wide receiver, my money would be on last year's leading wideout repeating: Roddy White.

Like Troy Williamson in Minnesota, White has a problem with drops. Also like Williamson, he has the best speed on his team and gets open enough to drop all those passes. There were signs from both players that they have made improvements in their game going into their third season. White is worth a roster spot in deep leagues, and he's worth monitoring elsewhere.

Recommendation: Worth owning in deep leagues.

Which reminds me …

Troy Williamson, Vikings - Williamson got drafted higher than I expected this year, but he's still available in many leagues. He's a solid WR6. That's the spot to take someone with a high ceiling.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Brandon Jones, Titans - We recommended keeping Brandon Jones a few weeks ago when news broke that Roydell Williams might start. Many owners didn't, and now they are probably scrambling to pick him back up following the news that he's likely to start Week 1. He has the skills to be a number one receiver, but hasn't shown the consistency yet.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Tight Ends

David Martin, Dolphins - Trent Green and Cam Cameron love their tight ends. And Martin has the game to be a fantasy starter – until he gets hurt.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Eric Johnson, Saints - Could be just the zone-busting answer to the Colts' Cover Two defense on Thursday night – until he gets hurt.

Recommendation: - Should be owned in deep leagues

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - I thought this guy would be the 2006 Heath Miller of this draft season: a slightly overvalued emerging tight end. Despite the first-round pedigree, Lewis is getting ignored to the point that he's undervalued.

The Jaguars new offense is expected to feature the tight end, and Lewis has great hands. He has a higher ceiling than any tight end available in the majority of leagues and makes an ideal TE2 who I'd take over Dallas Clark.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Team Defense

Oakland Raiders - If you are playing the matchups, Oakland is a good option this week. Detroit may score a lot against them, but they are likely to turn the ball over and give up sacks to Rex Ryan's underrated unit.

Houston Texans - Another solid matchup play, with Houston's improved defensive line cutting holes through Kansas City's swiss cheese offensive line.

[Hache Man]

Fine Tuning
We're getting down to mere hours now before the start of the season and, if you're like me, you're starting to get a little twitchy with anticipation. In just a little while, you will find out if all of your drafting and preseason studying really did much good.

But if you've already drafted, this is also one of the quietest weeks of the season. If your draft is coming up, you obviously are doing everything to get ready that we have talked about in the past. But for everybody else, there are not many moves to make yet and you're not really beating yourself up about who to start.

You should have a pretty good idea of who you're starting. You drafted a team with some probable starters in mind. Yes, you might have questions about filling a flex slot or your third wide receiver if you have a couple of relatively similar players. The tough questions don't come until one of your regulars fail to produce and you have a backup on the bench who keeps scoring more points.

For the most part, the individual matchups do not matter too much for this week. There are some exceptions, of course, and here are a few games that could get you thinking.

Detroit at Oakland

Sitting a few Lions, such as quarterback Jon Kitna or rookie wide receiver Calvin Johnson makes sense. The Raiders return a strong pass defense and an inconsistent team on the road such as Detroit could have difficulty in its opener. Kitna and Johnson probably are not automatic starters anyhow so you're OK sitting them.

Wide receiver Roy Williams is on my list of automatic starters so plug him in without looking at the matchup. Running back Tatum Bell is a more difficult question. The matchup is not a cinch, but you might have fewer weeks to play Bell than we originally thought. Once Kevin Jones gets back, Bell's production figures to drop and this is a case of getting what you can from him now.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

This game is causing some consternation among many Bengals owners, but you need to stick with them. You went after Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to be integral parts of your team. Even though it's Week 1 and it's against the Ravens and emotions will be high on both sides, you don't want to sit any of your stars right out of the gate. That's simply part of the fun of the game.

Giants at Dallas

The Giants can't stay out of the news for all kinds of off-field reasons so they should be grateful to get back on the field again. One thing to watch here is the health of the Cowboys' secondary. If Terence Newman's foot injury sidelines him, that means guys such as Jacque Reeves and Nathan Jones will be lining up at cornerback. With QB Eli Manning having a surprisingly accurate preseason and completing 68.6% of his 51 attempts, his eyes ought to light up against that secondary. As much of a mess as the Giants eventually could turn into this year, look for them to come out winging it in this game.

Panthers at Rams

Last year, the Panthers shut out the Rams 15-0, easily St. Louis' worst offensive game of the season. Star running back Steven Jackson had only 27 yards on seven carries, both his lowest of the year by far. So the natural question is if we should expect a repeat? Um, no. This game has a potential shootout feel to it with the Rams ready to come out of the gate strong at home. Carolina comes in with several holes on defense, especially in the secondary. The Rams will move the ball and Jackson should match his regular production with a TD shot or two.

Roster fine-tuning

In addition to being aware of some the intriguing matchups coming out of the gate, you also want to make sure your roster is in top-top shape. And that means you need to be aware of all of that late-preseason moves that teams have been making. Your rock-solid team might have a few more unexpected cracks today than a few days ago.

David Garrard

The Jaguars' quarterback move was one of the biggest changes to come out of the last weekend, but there is little reason to think he will be any better of a fantasy quarterback than Byron Leftwich was. And Leftwich was not anything great. The only good news that is Garrard should have a little more job security than Leftwich would have if he had stuck around, even though Garrard was benched late in the season finale last year. Garrard is a marginal No. 2 quarterback and better suited as a third quarterback in deep leagues.

Selvin Young

The undrafted rookie is the hot name to scoop up after the Broncos made him the backup to starter Travis Henry and moved Mike Bell to fullback. Bell reportedly is on the trading block and you probably should grab Young if you have an extra roster slot, but replacing Bell with Young is a more difficult question. If Henry were injured and missed any significant length of time, chances are the Broncos would move Bell back to tailback. Bell did have 157 carries and eight TDs last season, production and experience that would carry some weight if it were needed.

Patrick Crayton

He has improved slowly throughout his three-year career and now appears to be one opportunity away from turning into a breakout candidate. And that chance might be upcoming with the Cowboys needing youth at wide receiver behind veterans Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn. Glenn already missed most of the preseason because of a knee injury and his status is unclear heading into Week 1. Crayton figures to see more playing time now and if he does well against a beat-up Giants secondary, the Cowboys can afford to be much more cautious with Glenn all season.

Torry Holt

Questions have been flying over the past few weeks because Holt was barely heard from in the preseason following supposedly minor knee surgery in the spring. But there are a couple of things at work here. First, Holt is one of those established veterans who do not need much, if any, playing time to get ready for the regular season. He has played with quarterback Marc Bulger for five seasons, and those two already work well together. That also allows the Rams to be extra cautious with Holt even if he really is able to play. Unless word comes that Holt can't go, he should be an automatic go for you.

Kenton Keith

No, you probably should not have heard of this guy. But the Colts dumped somebody else you hadn't heard of, DeDe Dorsey, to make Keith the backup to first-round pick Joseph Addai. It's a very risky position for the Colts to take and nobody is suggesting that Keith would match Addai if he had to play. But he is somebody to be aware of and possibly pick up if you have an extra roster spot. Keith is about as well-known as Dominic Rhodes was before Edgerrin James was injured in 2001.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Vernand Morency

Make sure Morency isn't floating out there on your waiver wire if you're eligible to pick him up. Morency returned to practice this week after missing most of the preseason because of a knee injury and rookie Brandon Jackson has not exactly locked down the starting running back job. Morency will get some playing time as soon as he is ready and the long-term outlook at the position is up in the air.

[Hache Man]

Chiefs to Lessen LJ's Workload
With Priest Holmes officially out of the picture through at least Week 6, coach Herm Edwards said Tuesday that he plans to give Michael Bennett plenty of early work until Larry Johnson "gets his legs underneath him" following a lengthy holdout. Johnson seeing a reduced workload for a while won't make his fantasy owners happy, but it's likely the best thing for his long-term value after he racked up an NFL-record 416 carries (plus 41 catches) last season.

Running backs coming off that type of massive workload have historically tended to break down at alarming rates soon after, which is why Johnson enters the season ranked as the No. 5 fantasy running back in Rotoworld's online draft guide despite totaling 2,200 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2006. While Edwards is responsible for working Johnson so hard last year, he seems to understand that doing so again could be disastrous.

"When I took this job I didn't anticipate him carrying the ball that much," Edwards said. "It's kind of ironic. He's back, signed a big contract, and now he's not going to get the ball as much." Of course, as Helmuth von Moltke once said, "No plan survives contact with the enemy." Edwards may be planning to lessen Johnson's workload, but we'll see what he actually does once the Chiefs' sub par offense stalls without Johnson getting his hands on the ball 30 times per game.

While Johnson's projected Week 1 value declines thanks to the Chiefs' coaching staff making a smart decision, here are some other notes from around football …

* Speculation has been building throughout training camp that Ronnie Brown's hold on the starting job in Miami is not nearly as secure as initially thought. New coach Cam Cameron is familiar with Jesse Chatman from their days together in San Diego and indicated Monday that some sort of job-sharing arrangement could be in order. "You need two backs in this business," Cameron said. "You'll see both those backs in a game."

It's interesting to note that Cameron had one of the league's premiere backups in Michael Turner while orchestrating the Chargers' offense last season, yet didn't let him steal many of LaDainian Tomlinson's touches. Turner got plenty of work early and averaged a whopping 6.3 yards per carry overall, but received a grand total of just 28 carries from Week 6 to Week 16. The Miami Herald speculated that a true Brown-Chatman split may be forthcoming, but I'd bet against it.

However, it's clear that Cameron thinks highly of Chatman and plans to give him significant work. For now Chatman's workload likely isn't enough to make him a fantasy factor, but it definitely takes some of the air out of Brown's short-term stock. In the 13 games that he appeared in last season, Brown received 84 percent of the carries that went to Dolphins running backs. At this point it would be surprising if that number doesn't drop, perhaps to around the two-thirds mark.

* Speaking of potential job-sharing arrangements, it sounds like the Redskins will be splitting carries between Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts early on. Portis practiced Monday, signaling that he's recovered from knee tendinitis, but coach Joe Gibbs said afterward that Portis will "start off, and he and Betts will take the load" in Week 1. Further, the Washington Post reported Tuesday that Betts "seems likely to be used frequently" for the first several weeks.

Betts was fantastic while subbing for an injured Portis last season, racking up 1,154 yards on 245 carries (4.7 YPC), including six 100-yard games. He also caught 53 passes for another 445 yards, showing himself to be a gifted receiver out of the backfield. Betts is likely the best backup in football—assuming that you can call someone coming off a 1,600-yard season a backup—and Portis is far from a sure thing to remain healthy after missing half of the 2006 schedule.

At best Portis figures to get about 75 percent of the carries all season and every indication points to that number being far closer to 50-50 initially. If that's the case and Betts takes on much of the third-down work, then Portis becomes an iffy RB2 option. Betts signed a very reasonable five-year contract extension in December, so he's not going anywhere for a while. Regardless of Portis' health and performance, I'll be shocked if Betts doesn't get at least 150-175 touches.

* With Chris Perry on the PUP list, the Bengals were left with Kenny Watson as Rudi Johnson's primary backup and predictably attempted to improve the situation by claiming Antonio Pittman off waivers from the Saints. Unfortunately, they lost out on the fourth-round pick thanks to a win-loss record tiebreaker, so Pittman is now property of the Rams and begins the season stuck behind both Steven Jackson and fellow rookie Brian Leonard on the depth chart.

It's tough to criticize the Saints' brain trust at this point, but using a fourth-round pick on Pittman was iffy to begin with given the presence of both Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Picking Pittman and then letting him go for nothing is perhaps the most inexplicable cutting of a draft pick in a year that saw a pair of third rounders (Buster Davis, Quentin Moses) cut loose. After missing out on Pittman, the Bengals successfully claimed Clifton Dawson off waivers from the Colts.

An undrafted rookie out of Harvard, Dawson is an intriguing player, but likely won't develop into the snap-stealing threat that Pittman may become. Meanwhile, after letting Dawson leave the Colts will go with Kenton Keith as Joseph Addai's backup. A CFL star with zero NFL experience, Keith beat out DeDe Dorsey for the gig. However, the Colts figure to turn Addai into an every-down workhorse now that Dominic Rhodes is in Oakland, so it won't matter unless injury strikes.

Two-Minute Drill: Judging from their respective body languages following meetings with coach Lane Kiffin, the San Francisco Chronicle speculates that Daunte Culpepper beat out Josh McCown to start in Week 1 … A trendy pick this time last season, Wali Lundy couldn't secure the Texans' No. 3 running-back job behind Ahman Green and Ron Dayne, getting cut in favor of Samkon Gado (who once stepped in for Green with the Packers) … Rookie Zach Miller will be the Raiders' starting tight end and has the potential be a solid TE2 … Simeon Rice's one-year deal with the Broncos is worth $3 million plus incentives, and he could see time as a situational pass rusher immediately … Donald Lee will be the Packers' starting tight end in Week 1, but Bubba Franks figures to get plenty of playing time … In his upcoming book, Tiki Barber writes that he might still be playing for the Giants if not for a horrible relationship with coach Tom Coughlin.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Red Zone: Asked Tuesday about Torry Holt's (knee) health status, coach Scott Linehan said that "he looked 100 percent to me today" … Thomas Jones (calf) practiced Monday for the first time since August 12, with the New York Daily News reporting that it "looked like he will play in the opener" … Darrell Jackson (hamstring) missed practice Tuesday for the second straight day, but is expected to suit up Monday night against the Cardinals … Plaxico Burress (back) practiced Tuesday and looks likely to play in Week 1 … After missing two weeks, Damon Huard (calf) returned to practice Monday and is set to start in Week 1 … Drew Bennett (quadriceps) sat out practice Tuesday, but said afterward that he expects to play in Week 1 … Jonathan Ogden (toe) participated in individual drills Monday and practiced Tuesday, but the Baltimore Sun reports that he's "still a question mark" for Week 1.

[Hache Man]

The Fantasy Showbar
Ring the canons, fire the hounds, and loose the bells -- you're only one day away from fantasy football season. Granted, unless you're one of those 365-day per year super-nerds, most of you will have probably just started weaning yourself off of a summer tv-watching routine of "Ugly Betty" reruns and "Rock of Love" marathons. Emasculate yourself no more, young Funston, for your day of reckoning has arrived.

Yes, it's officially time to inoculate yourself for 16 weeks of faux-pigskin geekdom that'll take precedence over everything: family, friends, sex (in all forms), major surgeries, financial obligations, funerals for pets, and personal hygiene. Your life has now morphed into one big, giant Stat Tracker, constantly loading and reloading with information that ranges from vital to miniscule. In fact, it's probably been doing that for the last two weeks, but you just don't even realize it yet. (Honestly, if you've been name-dropping Jessie Chatman at the bar, you might as well just propose to your left hand right now. See: Pitzer, Matt.)

But, here, each week at the Showbar, I'll track some of the players I'm currently using on my five fantasy teams: gushing about the ones that make this season worthwhile and concocting various vicious torture techniques for those who don't.

It should be mildly amusing. En garte!

GUSH

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: I'm apparently drafting him waaay too high in most leagues according to some, ahem, "experts", but how can you pass on the possibility he might do something magical? Chester Taylor could get 40 carries a game for all I care, but it won't change my mind about starting Adrian Peterson. He's my WR/RB slot show pony. I'm drunk on the possibility. He's MINE. In fact, yes, for the rest of the year, I've officially named my left hand Adrian Peterson.

D.J. Hackett, Seattle Seahawks: He's your typical sleeper candidate that everybody loves to draft in round 12 so they can talk about his upside and the potential big play ability that he'll bring to the Seahawks offense. Me? I like his name: D.J. Hackett. Try yelling it in your best Sam Jackson voice: DJ HACK-IT. That just sounds like a wide receiver's name. Or a bad-ass detective show.

Brian Leonard, St. Louis Rams: Who doesn't lose their mind when white guys from Rutgers start leaping over linebackers? And, of course, there's the whole backup plan if Steven Jackson gets crippled-aspect that also makes him appealing. But he's totally got that Nick Goings-in 2004 look about him. And any member of the Scarlet Knights you put on your team is also a subtle protest against racial insensitivity by morning radio personalities.

MAIM

Kansas City Chiefs: Hasn't "Hard Knock Life" just spooked everybody? I'd rather eat a sandwich using Gunther Cunningham's Skoal-ravaged gums as lunchmeat than be stuck with an offensive player from this ugly squad. Yes, even Larry Johnson's almost guaranteed dominance still doesn't make up for the fact that I don't want to have any reason to watch the Chiefs this year at all. I think October Gonzalez's left implant could potentially have a better quarterback rating than both Brodie Croyle and Duane Huard this year.

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: This is the year Clinton Portis officially becomes a fantasy drain. He's still too talented to bench every week but Ladell Betts is appearing more and more like the most productive member of the Redskins backfield. And he'll do so without silly costumed-press conferences or making unfortunate proclamations about Michael Vick's innocence. However, that's his downside as well. Somebody should really put a purple wig on Ladell Betts and give him a script of asinine things to say of the dog-fighting-is-just-like-hunting-variety just to keep him interesting.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Travis Henry, RB, Denver Broncos: How can a man with such an active sperm count be depended upon week-to-week in high altitudes? There's not a medical correlation between the two (yet), but it is something to consider. Plus, personally, I'm afraid if I put him on my team, I'll end up three months pregnant.

Next Year's Team Name

Joe Theisman's Prostate Exam

[Hache Man]

Week 1 Rankings

It won't take long to find out if Donovan McNabb is all the way back. Philly's Week 1 opponent, the Green Bay Packers, have quietly built their best defensive line since Reggie White was roaming Lambeau. Aaron Kampman leads a unit that will be a stern test for Philadelphia's mammoth offensive line. When McNabb does get time to pass, he'll have to deal with one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL: Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Don't discount a big fantasy day from McNabb; Andy Reid throws in volume even if the team isn't at peak efficiency. If the Eagles do put in a good showing this Sunday, it could be a sign that McNabb is ready to compete for top fantasy quarterback honors again. The defensive backfields in the NFC East aren't close to Green Bay's caliber.
Tampabaybuccaneers.com
***

Welcome to the first Goal Line Stand of the year. If you are as dorky as I am, you jumped out of bed a little quicker than usual this morning. It's my favorite day of the season because it's the one furthest from the season ending.

For newcomers to Goal Line Stand, this is the spot each Thursday where I'll rank all the worthwhile fantasy options for the week, with notes culled primarily by the power of Tivo. The rankings coincide with our Season Pass rankings and projections, which begin to roll out on Tuesday each week. The rankings are made for standard scoring leagues without points-per-reception. Matchups are important, especially at quarterback and running back, but I try not to get too carried away early in the year before all the new defensive trends shake out.

If you haven't signed up for the free-to-play $100K Challenge, what are you waiting for? Sign up today and prove you are the best fantasy player in the country.

Week 1 Quarterbacks

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Peyton Manning	vs. NO	-
2	Marc Bulger	vs. CAR	-
3	Tom Brady	at NYJ	-
4	Drew Brees	at IND	-
5	Tony Romo	vs. NYG	-
6	Donovan McNabb	at GB	-
7	Carson Palmer	vs. BAL	-
8	Matt Hasselbeck	vs. TB	-
9	Jon Kitna	at OAK	-
10	Eli Manning	at DAL	-
11	Jay Cutler	at BUF	-
12	Matt Leinart	at SF	-
13	David Garrard	vs. TEN	-
14	Ben Roethlisberger	at CLE	-
15	Vince Young	at JAC	-
16	Brett Favre	vs. PHI	-
17	Jason Campbell	vs. MIA	-
18	Jake Delhomme	at STL	-
19	Alex Smith	vs. ARZ	-
20	Philip Rivers	vs. CHI	-
21	Jeff Garcia	at SEA	-
22	Matt Schaub	vs. KC	-
23	J.P. Losman	vs. DEN	-
24	Josh McCown	vs. DET	Expected to start
25	Steve McNair	at CIN	-
26	Rex Grossman	at SD	-
27	Tarvaris Jackson	vs. ATL	-
28	Chad Pennington	vs. NE	-
29	Damon Huard	at HOU	-
30	Joey Harrington	at MIN	-
31	Trent Green	at WAS	-
32	Charlie Frye	vs. PIT	-

QB Notes: It's could be a tough week for Vince Young owners. Jacksonville's stalwart defense is healthy again, and Young figures to struggle against elite pass defense. Young combined for only 248 passing yards in two games against Jacksonville last year, with one touchdown and three picks. He barely ran in both games ... Our excellent Matchups writer from Football Outsiders suggests benching Carson Palmer this week, but I'm not that bold. I still have memories of Palmer's 383-yard, three touchdown coming-of-age fireworks show he dropped on Baltimore back in 2004. Palmer struggled against the Ravens in both matchups last year, but topped 300 yards three times in four tries earlier in his career. He's too good to bench.

Eli Manning should strafe a beleaguered Dallas secondary if he gets protection. Expect Wade Phillips to send the house in an effort to protect his back seven. It could lead to big plays. … I hesitate to assume too much going into Week 1, because 2007 just won't start how last year ended. Many of our assumptions will be proved wrong. That said, it's hard to imagine Oakland's defense falling off too much after returning every starter. This won't be Jon Kitna's best effort.

David Garrard gets an easy first matchup against a Pacman-less Titans secondary. Tennessee's has even more questions on defense (MLB, DE, the whole defensive backfield) than offense. Vince Young will have his hands full. He combined for 248 yards, one touchdown, and three picks in two games against the Jaguars last year. They are one of the few defenses athletic enough to contain Young on the ground. Bench him if you have a good option. … Ben Roethlisberger will be a solid option most weeks, but Cleveland has one of the best young secondaries in the league. Expect Pittsburgh to focus on the run.



Week 1 Running Backs

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Frank Gore	vs. ARZ	-
2	Steven Jackson	vs. CAR	-
3	LaDainian Tomlinson	vs. CHI	-
4	Joseph Addai	vs. NO	-
5	Willie Parker	at CLE	-
6	Brian Westbrook	at GB	-
7	Shaun Alexander	vs. TB	-
8	Laurence Maroney	at NYJ	-
9	Reggie Bush	at IND	-
10	Travis Henry	at BUF	-
11	Willis McGahee	at CIN	-
12	Brandon Jacobs	at DAL	-
13	Rudi Johnson	vs. BAL	-
14	Edgerrin James	at SF	-
15	Larry Johnson	at HOU	-
16	Carnell Williams	at SEA	-
17	Ronnie Brown	at WAS	-
18	LaMont Jordan	vs. DET	-
19	Maurice Jones-Drew	vs. TEN	-
20	Deuce McAllister	at IND	-
21	Thomas Jones	vs. NE	-
22	Julius Jones	vs. NYG	-
23	Cedric Benson	at SD	-
24	Ladell Betts	vs. MIA	-
25	Clinton Portis	vs. MIA	-
26	Ahman Green	vs. KC	-
27	Marshawn Lynch	vs. DEN	-
28	Marion Barber	vs. NYG	-
29	Adrian Peterson	vs. ATL	-
30	LenDale White	at JAC	-
31	Tatum Bell	at OAK	-
32	DeAngelo Williams	at STL	-
33	Chester Taylor	vs. ATL	-
34	DeShaun Foster	at STL	-
35	Fred Taylor	vs. TEN	-
36	Brandon Jackson	vs. PHI	-
37	Jerious Norwood	at MIN	-
38	Leon Washington	vs. NE	-
39	Jamal Lewis	vs. PIT	-
40	Warrick Dunn	at MIN	-
41	Jesse Chatman	at WAS	-
42	Chris Brown	at JAC	-
43	Ron Dayne	vs. KC	-
44	Sammy Morris	at NYJ	-
45	Anthony Thomas	vs. DEN	-
46	Selvin Young	at BUF	-
47	Kenny Watson	vs. BAL	-
48	T.J. Duckett	at OAK	-
49	Michael Pittman	at SEA	-
50	Adrian Peterson	at SD	(CHI)
51	Vernand Morency	vs. PHI	-
52	Brian Leonard	vs. CAR	-

RB Notes: LenDale White fits the Titans offense better than Chris Brown. That's why they drafted him to replace Brown two years ago. White has a lax reputation, but his consistent grinding for yards-after-contact in the preseason showed a toughness Brown doesn't have. White's best two performances in Titans uniform were the last two games of the preseason, earning him plenty of work this week against a tough Jaguars defense. While Brown will play some on third-downs, White should also catch passes because Vince Young loves to check down. I only like White this week as a flex because of the matchup. … LaDainian Tomlinson has had some slow starts over the years, and his early schedule (CHI, @ NE) could mean another one is coming. With Tomlinson, everything is relative. His slumps are better than everyone else. … Practice reports out of San Francisco have been very positive concerning Frank Gore. Don't be concerned with him.

I downgraded Larry Johnson in the middle of the week, but you'd have to have a loaded backfield and no flex spot available to bench him against the Texans. 15 carries and a few catches against Houston is worth playing. … I'll believe the Ronnie Brown-Jesse Chatman split of carries when I see it, and not before. Chatman is a big concern for all Ronnie owners, but the real stuff hasn't even begun. I watched more tape of Brown this preseason, and I couldn't see what the Dolphins were disappointed in. Maybe it's his practice habits. … The Jets may not try to run the ball often against the Patriots. They didn't last season, and it worked pretty well. New England's weaknesses are in the secondary, so it may not be a heavy workload for Thomas Jones in his first game back from a calf injury. He's a below-average RB2 this week.

On paper, Seattle should have one of the worst rush defenses in the league. They did last year, and lost their best run-stuffer Marcus Tubbs for the season late in the preseason. That bodes well for Carnell Williams this week. … The Panthers backfield battle has not received much attention. DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams have a good matchup this week, but it's hard to evaluate them without seeing any usage patterns from the new Carolina coordinator. John Fox was highly unpredictable late last year using the two, and the trend could frustrate owners. More than any other borderline flex play, Williams gets a huge boost in PPR leagues. … Warrick Dunn is starting over Jerious Norwood this week. It's worth benching both players if possible against Minnesota until the mess in Atlanta starts to shake itself out. … Vernand Morency will probably play against Philadelphia as a third-down back.

Week 1 Wide Receivers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Steve Smith	at STL	-
2	Reggie Wayne	vs. NO	-
3	Marvin Harrison	vs. NO	-
4	Terrell Owens	vs. NYG	-
5	Larry Fitzgerald	at SF	-
6	Chad Johnson	vs. BAL	-
7	Andre Johnson	vs. KC	-
8	Torry Holt	vs. CAR	-
9	Roy Williams	at OAK	-
10	Marques Colston	at IND	-
11	Anquan Boldin	at SF	-
12	Javon Walker	at BUF	-
13	Lee Evans	vs. DEN	-
14	Plaxico Burress	at DAL	-
15	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	vs. BAL	-
16	Santana Moss	vs. MIA	-
17	Braylon Edwards	vs. PIT	-
18	Laveranues Coles	vs. NE	-
19	Reggie Brown	at GB	-
20	Hines Ward	at CLE	-
21	Jerricho Cotchery	vs. NE	-
22	Mark Clayton	at CIN	-
23	Deion Branch	vs. TB	-
24	Randy Moss	at NYJ	-
25	Donald Driver	vs. PHI	-
26	Calvin Johnson	at OAK	-
27	Ronald Curry	vs. DET	-
28	Joey Galloway	at SEA	-
29	Santonio Holmes	at CLE	-
30	Kevin Curtis	at GB	-
31	Vincent Jackson	vs. CHI	-
32	Darrell Jackson	vs. ARZ	(hamstring, limited in practice)
33	Bernard Berrian	at SD	-
34	D.J. Hackett	vs. TB	-
35	Chris Chambers	at WAS	-
36	Isaac Bruce	vs. CAR	-
37	Devery Henderson	at IND	-
38	Jerry Porter	vs. DET	-
39	Brandon Marshall	at BUF	-
40	Ernest Wilford	vs. TEN	-
41	Greg Jennings	vs. PHI	-
42	Muhsin Muhammad	at SD	-
43	Joe Horn	at MIN	-
44	Donte' Stallworth	at NYJ	-
45	Patrick Crayton	vs. NYG	-
46	Mike Furrey	at OAK	-
47	Drew Bennett	vs. CAR	(thigh, missing practice)
48	James Jones	vs. PHI	-
49	Terry Glenn	vs. NYG	-
50	Wes Welker	at NYJ	-
51	Brandon Jones	at JAC	Expected to start
52	Marty Booker	at WAS	-
53	Matt Jones	vs. TEN	-
54	Troy Williamson	vs. ATL	-
55	Derrick Mason	at CIN	-
56	Joe Jurevicius	vs. PIT	-
57	Eddie Kennison	at HOU	-
58	Maurice Stovall	at SEA	-
59	Keary Colbert	at STL	Should start
60	Roddy White	at MIN	-

WR Notes: Bill Barnwell did a great study in Pro Football Prospectus this year that will inform his matchup column and these rankings. Basically, the effect of matchups on receivers (wideouts and tight ends) is far less than on quarterbacks and running backs. While we think of wide receivers as inconsistent, you generally don't want to get too cute sitting a top-20 option. You will see less fluctuation in the weekly wide receiver rankings than the other position, and that's why this top-60 isn't so different than our draft guide rankings.

Randy Moss and Donald Driver received sizeable downgrades this week because of injury concerns. Moss is fully practicing, but may not he a huge part of the offense after missing so much of camp. I'd be surprised if he takes more than 40 snaps. He's still ranked so high because he's easily the most likely Patriots wideout to score a touchdown. New England will put him in positions to succeed this year, and that should mean plenty of work near the goal line. … Rotoworld news pro Evan Silva disagrees, but I'd play Calvin Johnson as a third receiver against the Raiders. Oakland has a great pass defense, but not great enough to bench a top-20 projected receiver if you start three. The Lions are floating reports that Johnson may not start, but he'll get starter-worthy snaps and targets regardless. Even Mike Furrey will be a decent option in PPR leagues most weeks if Detroit throws fifty times a game. … DJ Hackett Nation hasn't had a good preseason, but I'm a long way from giving up. Per-play, he's been one of the best receivers in the NFL the last two years on Sundays. All he needs to do is keep up his level of play, post his numbers, and Mike Holmgren will forget about giving Nate Burleson significant snaps. Tampa Bay is a fine matchup for Seattle this week, so he's staying in a few of my deeper lineups.

There are contrasting reports on Terry Glenn's readiness for this weekend. He should play, but perhaps not a full complement of snaps. That makes Patrick Crayton a reasonable flex option in 3WR, PPR leagues, but that's about it. I'd wait to see how Glenn looks before using him as well. … Drew Bennett has missed a few practices with a thigh injury, but Torry Holt isn't even on the injury report. Play Holt with confidence. … Darrell Jackson is already missing practices for the 49ers, which isn't a great sign, but he's expected to start on Monday night. Keep an eye on him though if he's in your lineup. … Ernest Wilford is available in many leagues and wouldn't make a terrible WR3 option this week against the Pacman-less Titans secondary. He's the favorite to lead Jacksonville in targets.

Week 1 Tight Ends

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Antonio Gates	vs. CHI	-
2	Tony Gonzalez	at HOU	-
3	Chris Cooley	vs. MIA	-
4	Vernon Davis	vs. ARZ	-
5	Todd Heap	at CIN	-
6	Jason Witten	vs. NYG	-
7	Kellen Winslow	vs. PIT	-
8	Jeremy Shockey	at DAL	-
9	Alge Crumpler	at MIN	-
10	Ben Watson	at NYJ	-
11	Heath Miller	at CLE	-
12	Owen Daniels	vs. KC	-
13	Dallas Clark	vs. NO	-
14	Daniel Graham	at BUF	-
15	Randy McMichael	vs. CAR	-
16	L.J. Smith	at GB	-
17	David Martin	at WAS	-
18	Marcedes Lewis	vs. TEN	-
19	Eric Johnson	at IND	-
20	Bo Scaife	at JAC	-
21	Alex Smith	at SEA	-
22	Visanthe Shiancoe	vs. ATL	-
23	Tony Scheffler	at BUF	-
24	Desmond Clark	at SD	-
25	Chris Baker	vs. NE	-
26	Ben Troupe	at JAC	-
27	Greg Olsen	at SD	Gametime decision (knee)

TE Notes: Here are the tight ends I'm watching the closest on Sunday.

Alge Crumpler – Will he continue to be a huge part of the Atlanta passing game. And is he healthy?

Kellen Winslow – Will his knee surgery affect his ability to get yards after the catch.

David Martin - - Will he get Antonio Gates-like targets in Miami.

Owen Daniels, Bo Scaife, Marcedes Lewis, Tony Scheffler, Alex Smith - So many good young tight ends, fantasy leagues could conceivably require two starters someday and have decent options. Whoever emerges from this group early will be popular waiver choices.

Ben Watson - Will he get lost in the wideout-heavy Patriots offense?

Vernon Davis- Will he hurt any Cardinals by running them over?

Week 1 Team Defense

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Chargers Def/Spec Team	vs. CHI	-
2	Bears Def/Spec Team	at SD	-
3	Patriots Def/Spec Team	at NYJ	-
4	Ravens Def/Spec Team	at CIN	-
5	Jaguars Def/Spec Team	vs. TEN	-
6	Steelers Def/Spec Team	at CLE	-
7	Raiders Def/Spec Team	vs. DET	-
8	Broncos Def/Spec Team	at BUF	-
9	Bengals Def/Spec Team	vs. BAL	-
10	Packers Def/Spec Team	vs. PHI	-
11	Colts Def/Spec Team	vs. NO	-
12	Cowboys Def/Spec Team	vs. NYG	-
13	Chiefs Def/Spec Team	at HOU	-
14	Eagles Def/Spec Team	at GB	-
15	Vikings Def/Spec Team	vs. ATL	-
16	Panthers Def/Spec Team	at STL	-
17	Dolphins Def/Spec Team	at WAS	-
18	Seahawks Def/Spec Team	vs. TB	-
19	Lions Def/Spec Team	at OAK	-
20	Fortyniners Def/Spec Team	vs. ARZ	-
21	Jets Def/Spec Team	vs. NE	-
22	Browns Def/Spec Team	vs. PIT	-
23	Texans Def/Spec Team	vs. KC	-
24	Redskins Def/Spec Team	vs. MIA	-
25	Buccaneers Def/Spec Team	at SEA	-
26	Falcons Def/Spec Team	at MIN	-
27	Giants Def/Spec Team	at DAL	-
28	Bills Def/Spec Team	vs. DEN	-
29	Rams Def/Spec Team	vs. CAR	-
30	Cardinals Def/Spec Team	at SF	-
31	Saints Def/Spec Team	at IND	-
32	Titans Def/Spec Team	at JAC	-

Week 1 Kickers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Adam Vinatieri	vs. NO	-
2	Jeff Wilkins	vs. CAR	-
3	Nate Kaeding	vs. CHI	-
4	Neil Rackers	at SF	-
5	Shayne Graham	vs. BAL	Sidelined(hip)
6	Olindo Mare	at IND	-
7	Josh Scobee	vs. TEN	-
8	David Akers	at GB	-
9	Stephen Gostkowski	at NYJ	-
10	Ryan Longwell	vs. ATL	-
11	Josh Brown	vs. TB	-
12	Jason Hanson	at OAK	-
13	Sebastian Janikowski	vs. DET	-
14	Jason Elam	at BUF	-
15	Robbie Gould	at SD	-
16	Jeff Reed	at CLE	-
17	Phil Dawson	vs. PIT	-
18	Jay Feely	at WAS	-
19	Joe Nedney	vs. ARZ	-
20	Rian Lindell	vs. DEN	-
21	John Kasay	at STL	-
22	Matt Stover	at CIN	-
23	Rob Bironas	at JAC	-
24	Mike Nugent	vs. NE	-
25	Kris Brown	vs. KC	-
26	Shaun Suisham	vs. MIA	-
27	Nick Folk	vs. NYG	-
28	Matt Bryant	at SEA	-
29	Matt Prater	at DAL
30	Mason Crosby	vs. PHI	-
31	Justin Medlock	at HOU	-
32	Lawrence Tynes	at MIN

[Hache Man]

It's Go Time!
I debated trying to come up with a witty intro for this column, perhaps comparing today to Christmas morning or something equally as cute, but quickly decided that's probably not even necessary. Peyton Manning and the defending champion Colts match up in prime time tonight against Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and the Saints to kick off five straight months of non-stop football. Let's see some fat guy in a red suit stick that in a box and fit it under a tree.

While we count down the seconds before the first of this season's 267 games kicks off, here are some notes from around football …

* After causing a minor stir for the past week by strongly hinting that Ronnie Brown's hold on the starting job wasn't secure, coach Cam Cameron predictably announced Wednesday that Brown is indeed still the Dolphins' starter. The fact that the team turned a non-story into a relatively big issue is worth noting, because they either felt the need to motivate Brown through the media or thought that Jesse Chatman presented legitimate competition for the gig.

Whatever the case, Brown can safely be used as a solid RB2 in Week 1 against the Redskins. However, it's worth keeping an eye on how Cameron splits up the carries, because he's given every indication that he won't be using Brown as an every-down workhorse. As pointed out in this space yesterday, Brown received 84 percent of the carries given to Dolphins running backs in the 13 games he played last season, so even as a backup Chatman's presence could change things.

* A relatively big fantasy name thanks to a pair of 1,200-yard seasons in 2004 and 2005, Reuben Droughns signing with the Giants as a backup likely put a scare into Brandon Jacobs owners. However, the Rotoworld staff has been suggesting all offseason that Droughns wasn't much of a threat to Jacobs' workload, although Monday's news that Derrick Ward has overtaken him as the team's No. 2 running back still comes as a minor surprise.

NBC Sunday Night Football analyst John Madden actually hinted at Ward's higher-than-expected status during a game last month, suggesting that coach Tom Coughlin preferred him over Droughns. Of course, unless an injury strikes Jacobs the whole point will mostly be moot. While Ward (or Droughns) could steal some of his third-down touches, Jacobs is a lock for all the goal-line work and will clearly be getting a huge percentage of the Giants' carries.

* It was assumed that Tatum Bell would get most of the snaps in the Lions' backfield while Kevin Jones is out, but Tom Kowalski of MLive.com speculated Wednesday that T.J. Duckett could be more involved in the running game than initially expected. Kowalski wrote that Duckett "raised some eyebrows with his versatility" and added that "regardless of who starts, this could turn into a running back-by-committee situation."

Duckett was already set to get the goal-line work, the pass-happy Lions don't figure to have a whole lot of carries to go around in the first place, and it's looking more and more like Jones could be back within a few weeks. Add it all up and Bell's value suddenly becomes pretty marginal. Gregg Rosenthal ranks him as the No. 31 running back in his Week 1 Goal Line Stand rankings, and I tend to agree. I'd tell you where Duckett ranks too, but you should check it out for yourself.

* Another season, another batch of Broncos running backs who coach Mike Shanahan can use to confuse and frustrate the fantasy football world. Travis Henry is Denver's clear-cut starter and figures to put together a hugely productive season if he can remain healthy, but Shanahan has already begun his usual depth-chart shuffling behind him. In an interesting twist, both Mike Bell and Cecil Sapp have been shifted to fullback.

That leaves undrafted rookie Selvin Young as Henry's backup, which is textbook Shanahan. The job was assumed to be Bell's for most of the offseason, but Shanahan said Monday that he thinks Bell "can be a Pro Bowl fullback" and "can be a special player there." The pecking order behind Henry figures to change constantly throughout the season, but for now at least Young is the Broncos backup to get.

* The following has absolutely nothing do with fantasy football, but this is my column and some things simply must be shared: According to the San Francisco Chronicle, 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is rumored to have dated Serena Williams. A ridiculous blend of size and speed makes Davis undoubtedly one of the NFL's best athletes and Williams is obviously one of the most physically dominant female athletes of all time.

I'm not sure how their courtship went or if it actually happened at all, but in the interest of seeing what kind of offspring their amazing genetic combination could produce, I think we need to make this happen. Think of it as the sports version of Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie hooking up, except instead of blinding people with good looks the kid will run a 4.4 40-yard dash to catch the bus to kindergarten, show up wearing a full-body spandex suit, and bench-press the lunch-room table.

Two-Minute Drill: FoxSports.com's Jay Glazer reports that No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders are "headed down the final stretch in their contract negotiations," with Russell expected to get in excess of $30 million in guaranteed money … Meanwhile, after initial reports that Daunte Culpepper would be the Raiders' starter in Week 1, Josh McCown will now get the nod in part because Culpepper hasn't mastered the offense … As expected, the Falcons announced Wednesday that Warrick Dunn will start over Jerious Norwood in Week 1 … Coach Mike Holmgren indicated Wednesday that he hasn't decided whether to start D.J. Hackett or Nate Burleson in Week 1 … Coach Herm Edwards said Wednesday that first-round pick Dwayne Bowe will be part of the Chiefs' regular wide-receiver rotation and figures to get plenty of action in the red zone … Fellow first rounder Ted Ginn will begin the season as the Dolphins' punt returner and No. 3 wide receiver … J.T. O'Sullivan is the Lions' pick as Jon Kitna's backup, which means that he's just an injury away from running Mike Martz's pass-happy offense.
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Red Zone: Not only did Torry Holt (knee) practice Wednesday, he was absent from the Rams' first injury report … As expected, Thomas Jones (calf) said Wednesday that he expects to play in Week 1 … Kevin Jones (foot) won't play in Week 1, but it's a good sign that he practiced Wednesday after experiencing some soreness following his first action Monday … Clinton Portis (knee) practiced Wednesday and looks likely to start in Week 1, but figures to lose plenty of touches to Ladell Betts … Despite being limited in practice Wednesday, rookie Brandon Jackson (concussion) pronounced himself "ready to go" for Week 1 … Randy Moss (hamstring) was not on the Patriot's initial injury report, meaning that he'll start in Week 1 … L.J. Smith practiced Wednesday, signaling that he's fully recovered from hernia surgery … Terry Glenn (knee) returned to practice Wednesday … After skipping practice Wednesday, Drew Bennett (quadriceps) looks questionable for Week 1.

[Hache Man]

Watch for undervalued players
After getting through a lackadaisical preseason and completing seven months of talk and speculation, another season is upon us. What all of that time allowed us was plenty of rumination about the fate and potential of every team, and nearly every player, around the league.

So while no year ever goes as expected, here is my last-minute collection of thoughts and tidbits on the new fantasy season. And if you agree with some of my impressions of what is about to happen, you might get an advantage in the final compilation of your roster.

If you spent August watching HBO's Hard Knocks, you probably heard Kansas City Chiefs coach Herm Edwards talk to his team about needing to win one-on-one matchups. Well, after watching the Chiefs all preseason, they do not appear to have anybody other than Larry Johnson and sometimes Tony Gonzalez who can beat anybody one-on-one.

The quarterback "battle" was a bust, with Damon Huard winning while standing on the sideline injured. The offensive line is so shaky that a knee injury to journeyman Damion McIntosh was considered almost devastating. Johnson is so good he can succeed in such surroundings and did so last season. Don't touch anybody else.

I'm still not quite sure what to make of Torry Holt's lingering knee injury, although I am much more concerned about it now than when I made him my No. 1-rated wide receiver a few months ago. All his rest for the last month helps, and he should not need much time to get on the same page with quarterback Marc Bulger, with whom he has worked for parts of five seasons. If anything, you might be able to pick up Holt at a bargain with that health question looming.

Another player available at a bargain now is Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis, who did not play in the preseason because of knee tendinitis and has slipped in drafts for the past month. But if he is sitting there in the third round, how do you not take him? Yes, the injury risk is high but so is the potential reward now that he apparently will enter the season as close to 100% as he can be. That kind of pick can win a championship if it works out, although you also have to spend a later pick on backup Ladell Betts.

The biggest news to come out of the final round of roster cuts involved a player not released, Detroit Lions running back Kevin Jones. They activated him from the physically unable to perform list after months of speculation about being sidelined to start the season while recovering from last year's foot injury. That means Tatum Bell is not the clear-cut starter in a potentially explosive offense, although Jones probably will be limited early on.

That is a big hit to Bell's value because he had turned into a fashionable sleeper candidate because the Lions have big hopes for the offense heading into their second season under coordinator Mike Martz. You should be OK sticking with Bell for the first few weeks but do not rely on him all season. Try also to snap up Jones for your bench and keep an eye on his progress. Bell and Jones have been injury-prone, so the Lions were not going to lean on either for every carry anyhow. Now, though, they appear headed to another split-back situation at some point.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be a team to watch as the season goes along, and you might want to consider any reasonable trade requests you get for their stars —Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Rudi Johnson. They have little depth this season and could suffer whenever the usual bruises hit.

The noise out of Dallas this summer has been how quiet it has been, but the Cowboys offense should be poised to change that right out of the gate. One worry spot is the health of aging receiver Terry Glenn, but Patrick Crayton is poised for a nice year if Glenn stumbles. The other big question is how the points will be divided between running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber III, but assume Barber retains the touchdown role until you see evidence otherwise. That does not mean, however, that Jones will not get enough touches to be a No. 3 back. He might be even more reliable than Barber because you know what you're getting.

Knock the New England Patriots defense down a notch after they lost end Richard Seymour and safety Rodney Harrison for the start of the season on back-to-back days. Against the San Diego Chargers and Cincinnati in the first four games, the Patriots might struggle a bit. They still are a top-five defense but not in the top two. Of course, the Patriots are always more worried about being in perfect shape at the end of the season than the beginning.
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The lack of love for Rex Grossman is astonishing. OK, so he has some issues getting the ball from center, but he also was tied for seventh in the league with 23 TD passes and went 13-3 — in his first full year as a starter. He had a full offseason in this program and has some young, dangerous options in wide receiver Bernard Berrian and, when healthy, tight end Greg Olsen. The ceiling is high for Grossman and much more inviting than it is for ho-hum quarterbacks such as Trent Green, Chad Pennington and Steve McNair, who have gone ahead of Grossman at times.

[Hache Man]

Taking Stock
We wait seven months for football, and then 13 games are upon us in one day and it's deliriously overwhelming. We don't know where to look; we want to see it all, but that's impossible.

This new Monday morning column, being sent out with our Daily Dose email (signup to get it in your inbox every week day by entering your email address in the right-hand column of this page), hopes to let you take a deep breath, survey the Fantasy Nation landscape, and get caught up on the stories that matter.

This is going to work out just fine
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1. Travis Henry and Mike Shanahan's running game sure looked like a good match on paper. With 183 total yards in his first game, Henry made it a reality. He put the preseason injury concerns behind him and looked like a first-round fantasy pick.

2. Tom Brady to Randy Moss. Yeah, this could work. The Patriots probably aren't going to miss the fourth-round pick they traded for Moss in April, as the second best wide receiver ever to come out of Marshall (Moss said it, not me) caught nine passes for 183 yards and a score – his biggest total since 1999.

While he didn't look blazing fast, Moss made tough leaping catches in traffic and beat triple coverage for a 51-yard score. Five of his first six catches went for more than 15 yards; he's New England's only true deep threat. The Patriots will spread it around more usually, but Moss only needs to throw in a handful of huge games to go with his lesser efforts to re-join the fantasy elite.

3. As a representative of Torry Holt owners everywhere, I want to thank Big Game for worrying out loud about his knee right before draft season. And then putting up a ho-hum eight catches for 73 yards and a touchdown in his first game.

4. Who needs a quarterback when you have Adrian Peterson? With Chester Taylor hurt, AP looked every bit like The Next Great Fantasy Running Back with 163 yards and a touchdown in his debut. He runs with such force, one can only hope he stays healthy. If Taylor's injury lingers, the Peterson Era is already in full swing.

5. Microfracture, microshmacture. Kellen Winslow put up 83 yards in his first official game back from the once career-threatening knee surgery.

6. Matt Schaub backed up a scorching preseason with a composed first game as a starter in Houston, connecting for 225 yards, one touchdown, and one pick against a solid Chiefs defense. Schaub has connected on 73% of his passes in a Houston uniform. Andre Johnson (172 yards) owners rejoice!

7. My optimism surrounding Raiders skill players Ronald Curry (10-133-1) and LaMont Jordan (159 total yards, 1 TD) wasn't just based on the varied skill sets they've displayed in the past. It was based on Oakland's record-setting ineptitude last year. If Lane Kiffin can just make the Raiders mediocre, improved numbers will follow.

Curry is one of the best twenty receivers in the NFL and his numbers will show it if Oakland is average. Josh McCown may play just well enough for Oakland to get beat, but the overall level of the offense was back to NFL standards Sunday. You are supposed to move the ball on the Lions, and they did. PPR owners of Jordan should love his eight-catch, 89-yard effort out of the backfield. He had 74 receiving yards all of last year after piling up 563 in 2005.

Don't Panic Yet

1. In his first game as Jaguars coordinator, Dirk Koetter called 13 combined runs for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, while David Garrard threw 30 passes. It was tight game throughout. Look for Koetter to welcome Jack Del Rio back into his office this week, when Del Rio will plead for a return to smashmouth football.

2. I heard from a few panicked Chris Cooley owners who wanted to drop him for Marcedes Lewis or Eric Johnson. Relax - Cooley had a few similar games early last year. All tight ends do. That's why they don't put up 1,000 yards.

3. Take a deep breath Steven Jackson owners. He actually played worse against Carolina next year.

4. Thomas Jones may not put up great stats until the Jets are past their New England/Baltimore gauntlet to start the year, but he still got the majority of carries over Leon Washington Sunday. Jones may be a buy-low candidate next week.

5. Donovan McNabb was shaky in his season debut, completing less than half his passes for 184 yards and a score. But the dominant Packers defense is going to make a lot of offenses look bad. Worry about number five if he can't improve against the Bucs next week.

6. All offseason, I've talked about Larry Johnson's risks: his health and his teammates. His teammates did him in Sunday, as LJ only earned ten carries because Kansas City trailed all game and the passing game couldn't convert first downs.

Johnson owners could find positives though. He still looked like the LJ of old when he touched the ball, piling up 87 total yards in limited work. Johnson's teammates will keep him from being great this year, but his owners can hope for him to be good.

7. Here were the three scoring drives completed by the Green Bay offense Sunday:

* -1 yard, 3 points
* 51 yards, 3 points
* 6 yards, 3 points.

With a shaky running game, young players everywhere on offense, and Brett Favre in decline, this unit could take a while to get going. I'm concerned, but am willing to be patient.

8. Cedric Benson predictably struggled against the Chargers. Rotoworld has never been high on him as a dominant fantasy back, but he'll have better days. He's the type of RB2 that can't rise up against great defenses like San Diego's. He'll pile up his numbers when the Lions come to town.

9. Oakland's Nmandi Asomugha was responsible for Roy Williams' four-catch, 20-yard effort. The depth of the Raiders secondary behind Nmandi was exposed.

Go Ahead and Panic

1. Maurice Stovall barely saw the field for Tampa despite David Boston hurting his foot. I still could see Stovall making a fantasy impact this year, but there's no need to remain overly patient with a buried Tampa receiver. Ike Hilliard actually had an encouraging performance against Seattle. I would tell you to pick him up, but then I'd have to kill myself.

2. Donte' Stallworth was New England's fifth receiver Sunday according to snaps, behind even Kelley Washington. Stallworth played 26 fewer snaps than Jabar Gaffney, who essentially was a starter. Stallworth will probably have his moments this year, but good luck guessing when they come. I wouldn't hold on too long in shallow leagues.

3. Dwayne Jarrett was inactive for the Panthers. Unless you are in a keeper league, his upside isn't worth holding on to.

4. The same goes for Reggie Williams, who was a healthy scratch for Jacksonville. It's not a good sign for his career when a seventh-round pick like John Broussard is ahead of him.

5. The Rams offense, especially Marc Bulger, won't be same if Orlando Pace is out for an extended period of time. They will hardly turn into the Browns, but monster numbers will be more difficult to post.

6. Anyone forecasting a surprise by the Falcons offense this season was just being a contrarian for contrarian sake. This is one of the worst teams in football on both sides of the ball. They would be with or without Michael Vick. Jerious Norwood could earn more carries after Warrick Dunn struggled badly in Week 1, but Dunn is getting most of the work now.

7. I'm not sure Jamal Lewis has enough left in the tank to succeed if he was on an average offense. But I know he's not good enough to overcome playing on one of the worst offenses in the league. Lewis fumbled early against the Steelers Sunday and their revamped offensive line looked just like they did last season. The Browns had six months to decide on a starting quarterback, and they waited exactly ten passes Sunday before yanking Charlie Frye for Derek Anderson.

8. T.J. Duckett appeared to have put on some weight. He also appeared to be running through pudding when he got the ball (three carries, four yards). T.J. Duckett did not need to put on any more weight.

9. Devin Hester had one offensive snap Sunday. He was an insane fantasy pick to begin with. Jump ship.

Fear the Champ

Lee Evans is probably one of the best ten pure wide receivers in the NFL. Matched against Champ Bailey, he finished with two catches for five yards. With the additions of Dre Bly at cornerback and Jim Bates at defensive coordinator, the Broncos are going to be difficult to pass against. J.P. Losman finished with a microscopic 4.6 yards-per-attempt and wasn't able to top 100 passing yards.

So much for a committee

Dick Jauron talked tough all offseason about splitting up carries in the Buffalo backfield. But when gameday arrived, Marshawn Lynch put the struggles of the preseason behind him with 99 total yards and a score on 21 touches. He looked consistent from the first carry. The A Train got on the track four times, for seven yards. And Lynch owners everywhere felt a lot more secure.

Four's Company

Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning all endured offseason with varying levels of skepticism thrown their way. They each responded with four touchdowns in Week 1. Ben pulled it off despite only 161 yards. Romo pulled it off with 345 yards thrown in on only 24 attempts. He's off to a good start defending his YPA crown. Eli managed the feat despite a shoulder injury. More on that later.

Looks like a Committee

1. Cam Cameron talked up Jesse Chatman and followed through by playing him in key situations throughout the game, often with Ronnie Brown in the same backfield. Brown wound up with 17 touches for 72 total yards, while Chatman had 13 touches for 63 yards. And Brown owners began to wonder if 300 carries is but a dream.

2. Maybe the offseason is overrated. Clinton Portis barely practiced for ten months, yet looked to be in mid-season form with 98 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Ladell Betts wound up with one more touch (and 21 less yards), but that division of carries may not last long.

3. LenDale White started and looked ready to carry the load for the Titans early, but Chris Brown's terrific play forced a split of carries. Brown gained 80 yards on his first five carries and never looked back on the way to 175 carries. Don't expect Brown to become a workhorse, though. He's started fast before and wore down quickly. Jeff Fisher knows Brown well and won't overburden him with more than 15-20 carries a game. This will be a split until it doesn't work.

4. More of the same in Dallas. Julius Jones and Marion Barber split carries, and Barber outplayed the starter.

5. Ron Dayne quietly had 13 carries to 16 for Ahman Green, and only four of Dayne's totes came on the final drive when the game was decided. Green outplayed Dayne, but Texans coach Gary Kubiak is wise to divvy up the workload between his veterans – even if Green's fantasy owners don't agree.

Calm Down

1. Antwaan Randle El caught five passes for 162 yards in Week 1. While he's passed Brandon Lloyd as the second most valuable Redskins wideout, he may not put up half this total again all year.

2. Drew Carter caught two touchdowns, but he was the team's third receiver and only had three total catches. Odds are you just missed his best fantasy day for a while.

Depth Charting

1. Selvin Young was indeed Denver's backup running back on Sunday. Cecil Sapp was the starting fullback, and finished with one more carry, but Young was in at crunch time when Travis Henry briefly left the game.

2. Calvin Johnson was basically Detroit's fourth receiver against Oakland Sunday, playing behind Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. And yet Johnson still put up 70 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL game. The Lions go three and four wide so often, Johnson will get enough targets to be fantasy-worthy. He's being put in positions to succeed. More performances like these should help him earn even more snaps.

Infirmary report

Brian Flood will cover injures more in depth each Monday morning in our Season Pass package, but I'll give you the quick skinny here.

This week was defined by all the injuries. While they will hurt many fantasy owners, they also create opportunities. I try to take a Patriot-like view on injuries. Accept them as part of the game, don't moan about them, and quickly move on and try to find solutions. Don't waste energy on what you can't control.

1. Bills TE Kevin Everett's injury goes beyond sports. It casts a deep sadness on the whole day of football. We can only wish the young man and his family the best in the difficult days ahead.

2. Rotoworld favorite Brandon Jacobs suffered a potentially devastating injury when his knee buckled back on a hit Sunday. Testing will be performed Monday, but early indications are it's a sprained MCL – a three or four week injury.

3. D.J. Hackett left Sunday early with an ankle injury. Nate Burleson played the rest of the game in his place and caught two passes. That's two more than Deion Branch caught the whole game.

3. Carnell Williams was on his way to 100 yards before leaving in the third quarter against Seattle with a rib injury. Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham filled in for him.

4. Eli Manning left New York's wild loss late with a "bruised" right shoulder. Tests will reveal if it's something worse, and my instinct guesses it is. At least Eli was considerate enough to deliver 312 yards and four scores before the bad news.

5. Chad Pennington wound up missing a few series with an ankle injury, and further tests will show if it's anything serious. Jeff Garcia also missed time after getting decked, something that's probably going to happen too much.

6. Chester Taylor left Minnesota's game early with a hip pointer. Wait for the prognosis, but Taylor is worth holding on to in all leagues unless he's out for the year.

Waiver Wired Preview

Here are a few of the names who will be mentioned in Tuesday's waiver wired column.

Selvin Young
Michael Pittman
Nate Burleson
Sammy Morris
Derrick Ward
Mewelde Moore
Jared Lorenzen (any excuse to write about him)

Worst Person in Fantasy Football

I ran this segment in homage to Keith Olbermann's Countdown in the preseason a few times before I knew he was doing it for football on Football Night in America. It could because of the overkill. But show must go on.

Our Week 1 winner is Brandon Jacobs. Injuries happen, but do they have to happen six plays into the season? Honorable mention goes to Steven Jackson for his 61 total yard, two lost fumble effort.

[Hache Man]

Giants and Ravens Hurting
And just like that, Week 1 is in the books. Gregg Rosenthal used this space yesterday to recap all the opening-week action, including Travis Henry, Randy Moss, and Adrian Peterson making great first impressions with their new teams. Rather than recreate an inferior version of that for today—seriously, go read his complete Week 1 rundown … once you're done with this column, of course—I'll instead focus on some storylines that figure to stretch into Week 2 and beyond.

While I come to the startling realization that all it takes to make Tony Kornheiser enjoyable as a football announcer is Ron Jaworski in the booth with him and "The Three Mikes" in the booth after him, here are some other notes from around football …

* Falling to the Cowboys in Week 1 now looks like the least of the Giants' problems, with Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and Osi Umenyiora all going down with significant injuries Sunday night. Jacobs and Umenyiora both suffered knee injuries, with Jacobs expected to miss 3-5 weeks and Umenyiora out either one month or two months depending on the source. Manning's status is still somewhat up in the air, but it doesn't sound good.

Several New York newspapers and the Giants' team website suggested Monday that Manning might play in Week 2, but both Chris Mortensen of ESPN and Adam Schefter of NFL Network reported that he suffered a separated shoulder and will miss several weeks. It sounds like Manning will go for a second opinion and could attempt to practice later this week, but for now the Giants are looking at either Jared Lorenzen or Anthony Wright throwing passes in Week 2.

It'd be fun to see the 550-pound backfield of Lorenzen and Jacobs, but the always-entertaining Hefty Lefty will be handing off to Derrick Ward if he gets the nod in Week 2. While a lightweight compared to Jacobs, Ward is a compact, powerful runner who played well after coming on in relief against the Cowboys and figures to get a full workload. Along with 89 yards on 13 carries, Ward caught four passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. If he's still available, grab him.

* As bad as the Giants' injury carnage was in Week 1, the Ravens may have come away from Monday night's ugly loss to the Bengals in even worse shape. Ray Lewis suffered a triceps injury during the first quarter and stayed in the game, but is said to have told reporters afterward that the injury is a tear. A Ravens spokesperson denied that, saying that the team never would have sent him back into the game if that were the case. If true, Lewis may be looking at a lost season.

Losing Lewis would be a huge blow to the Ravens' defense and the offense may have lost a future Hall of Famer of their own in Jonathan Ogden. Ogden started after being a game-time decision, but exited in the first quarter after apparently aggravating the torn ligament in his toe. While it might seem odd that something called "turf toe" could wreck a 6-foot-9, 350-pound beast, that's a very real possibility after Ogden missed the entire preseason with the injury.

Injuries to Lewis and Ogden overshadow the fact that Steve McNair was on the sidelines as the Ravens attempted their fourth-quarter comeback. After going 20-of-34 for 203 yards while committing four turnovers, McNair gave way to Kyle Boller late because of a groin injury. McNair figures to play through the injury, but his inability to stretch the field continues to hurt the Ravens' offense and things will only get worse if Ogden is out.

* Cincinnati attempted to add running-back depth behind Rudi Johnson by using a second-round pick on Kenny Irons, but then lost both Irons and Chris Perry to injuries. They tried to claim Antonio Pittman off waivers before losing out on him thanks to a tiebreaker, and then grabbed Clifton Dawson once he was let go by the Colts. In other words, it's clear that coach Marvin Lewis and company don't feel especially comfortable with their running game beyond Johnson.

That point was hammered home Monday, when Johnson got all 18 carries that went to Bengals running backs. He totaled just 50 yards against a tough Ravens defense, but added 26 yards on three catches. Not known for his receiving skills, Johnson caught three passes in a game just twice between 2005 and 2006, and hasn't topped that total since Week 9 back in 2004. While not having a solid backup hurts the Bengals, it figures to do wonders for Johnson's fantasy stats.

Two-Minute Drill: He's not likely to see action before midseason, but JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders have finally agreed to a six-year contract worth $61 million, including $32 million in guaranteed money … Coach Wade Phillips said Monday that Julius Jones and Marion Barber will continue to split carries, adding that Jones will see more red-zone work this season … Randy Moss' 183 yards in Week 1 were his most in a game since 1999 … Warrick Dunn out-carried Jerious Norwood 22-to-5 in Week 1, but coach Bobby Petrino said Monday that Norwood's workload will increase going forward … Despite throwing two interceptions, suffering a hand injury, and taking a loss while the Oakland crowd chanted Daunte Culpepper's name in Week 1, coach Lane Kiffin confirmed Monday that Josh McCown will continue starting … Following in the Week 1 footsteps of Deion Branch, Mark Clayton was held without a catch Monday night … Devin Hester was on the field for just one offensive play in Week 1.
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Red Zone: Cadillac Williams' (ribs) odds of playing in Week 2 appear slim, with Michael Pittman in line to start … Owner Jerry Jones said Monday that he expects Terry Glenn (knee) to make a decision regarding season-ending surgery "over the next few weeks" … Coach Brad Childress indicated Monday that Chester Taylor may be able to play in Week 2 after being diagnosed with an oblique contusion and will start if healthy … Short of being injured themselves, labrum and rotator-cuff tears ending Orlando Pace's season is the next-worst thing for Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, and Steven Jackson … Jesse Chatman suffered a bruised knee while splitting time with Ronnie Brown in Week 1, but doesn't expect to miss any time … Coach Mike Holmgren said Monday that Rotoworld favorite D.J. Hackett is "out for a significant period" with a dreaded high-ankle sprain, meaning that Nate Burleson could be starting for the next month … After getting three carries early, T.J. Duckett suffered a high-ankle sprain of his own in the first quarter Sunday and didn't return … A hamstring injury will force Eddie Kennison to the bench for Week 2.

[Hache Man]

Picking up the slack
The best waiver pickups come in September. The reality that the 2007 season is a completely different animal than 2006 will take time to set in, and some owners will be slow to react.

Change for change's sake is never a good idea either. In deep leagues, there are probably only a few good pickups each week. If you can't get a clear upgrade, don't swap Antwaan Randle El for Deion Branch out of boredom. Owners of high ceiling lottery tickets at running back should keep this in mind. A lot of Maurice Jones-Drew draftees last season bailed early last season after he only touched the ball four times in the first two games. Let's get to the wire.

Running Backs

Derrick Ward, Giants

Ward has a short file for a 27-year-old. He's only earned 37 touches as a pro before this season, including zero in an injury-marred 2006 season. Here's what we know

1. He's the heavy favorite to start for the Giants for the next 3-5 weeks while Brandon Jacobs overcomes a sprained MCL.

2. The Giants have held on to Ward since 2004 despite an assortment of injuries and competitors for a reserve running back job. Former GM Ernie Accorsi loved him. They would have to in order to be so patient.

3. Ward looked exceedingly ready for a bigger role when he piled up 116 total yards on 17 touches against the Cowboys. He's no Brandon Jacobs, but Ward is also a power back at 228 pounds. His four receptions show some versatility. He's what Reuben Droughns was supposed to be.

4. Ward would have a far better chance for success if Eli Manning were healthy. The schedule over the next three weeks (Green Bay, Washington, Philadelphia) is fairly difficult and the Giants may struggle to move the ball.

Add it all up, and Ward is our favorite pickup of the week. He should be the primary back for at least three games, and that's worth using your first waiver pick.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Michael Pittman, Bucs

All Michael Pittman does is produce. With a 5.6 yards-per-carry average over the last two years and great receiving skills, Pittman should be owned in a lot more than one-quarter of all fantasy leagues. Carnell Williams is week-to-week with bruised ribs, and Pittman should get the most work at running back in his absence. Earnest Graham should also be involved.
Pittman's two starts at the end of last season are instructive. He only averaged 14 carries a game, but still piled up 216 total yards. The upcoming schedule (New Orleans, St. Louis) is very favorable. If I knew for sure Williams would miss multiple games, I'd rather have Pittman than Ward, especially in points-per-reception leagues.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Kenton Keith, Colts

The Colts played so long ago, perhaps Joseph Addai owners have been able to remove their hearts from their throats. And perhaps owners have forgotten in the meantime that Kenton Keith is a great pickup for insurance. He looked solid in the five carries he was given.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Selvin Young, Broncos

Don't forget about him too. A lot of waivers have been closed for a few weeks, so Young may still be available.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Sammy Morris, Patriots

Morris was ignored by a lot of Laurence Maroney owners who didn't want to waste a spot on his handcuff. I think Morris could wind up being one of the most valuable backups in the league. The Patriots weren't afraid to use him early in the game and near the goal line. He will probably wind up with ten touches a game, and he'd be a fantasy starter if Maroney gets hurt.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Adrian Peterson, Bears

Rotoworld news MVP Evan Silva believed this offseason that Peterson could have a chance to split carries with Cedric Benson by midseason if all went well. So far, so good.

Peterson played on many key second half snaps against the Chargers and nearly out-rushed Benson despite 12 less carries. A costly fumble won't help him, but Benson has one too. I love Peterson's skill set, but it's still a stretch to imagine Lovie Smith making this a true job share. Peterson is worth owning in nearly any league format as a RB5 to find out.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Musa Smith, Ravens

For a brief history of our obsession with Musa Smith, head over to Pancake Blocks. Smith's solid outing Monday night could earn him permanent backup status. That's worth noting for Willis McGahee owners in deep leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Mewelde Moore, Vikings

Long-time Wired favorite could get an opportunity to be Minnesota's third-down back if Chester Taylor's injury is serious. I wouldn't grab him yet, but Adrian Peterson owners especially should monitor the situation.

Recommendation: Keep an eye on

Wide Receivers

Ronald Curry, Raiders

We ranked him in our top 100 overall players all offseason, so Curry shouldn't be available in most Rotoworld user leagues. But the numbers say he's out there for the taking in many shallow formats. Go grab him; he's a solid WR3 at worst. And yes, I enjoyed the hell out of that monster first game after taking crap from people that Curry would inevitably be our highest-ranked player available on the board by far in every other draft.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Nate Burleson, Vikings

Burleson is full of contradictions. Seemingly a gifted player after the catch in 2004 while in Minnesota, he vanished while healthy the last two seasons. He disappointed the Seahawks so much that they felt forced to give up a first-round pick for Deion Branch just before the season.

But all we've heard this offseason were positive reports of Burleson "flashing", enough to rival D.J. Hackett for snaps in Seattle. He backed it up with a big preseason, and now is in position to start with Hackett sidelined indefinitely with a high ankle sprain.

Normally, I love Seattle receivers. The passing game was highly consistent until last year, but is starting to show signs of decline. Burleson was targeted three times Sunday, catching two passes for 41 yards. He broke a few tackles on a 21-yard grab before fumbling. He caught a 20-yard pass deep over the middle later and held on after a tough hit. Burleson looks like their best deep threat right now, and that's certainly worth owning. He may even be worth starting as a WR3 in some formats.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Patrick Crayton, Cowboys

Just in case you missed our 90 minute Crayton-athon on Fantasy Fix Live last Sunday. Crayton didn't explode against the Giants, but we'd still take him over Burleson.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Shaun McDonald, Lions

I'm intrigued, but McDonald is destined for the fourth receiver role in Detroit. And the list of valuable fantasy fourth receivers is non-existent. You could do worse as a WR6/7 in deep leagues, but you could probably do better.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Antwaan Randle El, Redskins

This is doing worse. There was a time in Pittsburgh when Randle El looked like a potential quality starter, but he didn't step up when Plaxico Burress left town. Someone has to catch the ball in Washington so Randle El could improve, but not enough to make a difference in fantasy leagues. You already missed his best game of the season.

Recommendation: Stay away

Dwayne Bowe and Samie Parker, Chiefs WR

Kansas City confirmed our worst fears when they scored three points at Houston. Bowe and Parker should start this Sunday with Eddie Kennison out, but neither player has shown enough to think that they'll put up consistent stats. It could be an ugly game against the Bears.

Recommendation: Stay away

Troy Williamson, Vikings

A risky flex or WR3 play this week against the hapless Detroit secondary.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Quarterbacks

Honestly, you probably shouldn't be trolling for quarterbacks this week unless either

A) David Garrard is still available
B) You own Chad Pennington or Eli Manning or..
C) You play in a two-quarterback league.

Eli owners don't even need to pick up a QB2 if their starter doesn't have a bye coming up. Reports vary about Manning's injury timeline, but it sounds like he could be back in a few weeks. Garrard would be our first pickup, but here are some other options

Jared Lorenzen, Giants

I want so badly for the hefty lefty to succeed, but the Packers are a brutal first opponent. If they dominated the Eagles' passing attack, they should make quick work with the Giants. That said, don't expect Tom Coughlin to go into a shell because his backup is in there. This team will probably still throw it and play high-risk football because their defense is so poor. Lorenzen could rack up some garbage stats through volume if he's lucky, but you can probably do better a short-term fill in.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 2QB leagues

Kellen Clemens, Jets

I'm not a doctor, but I know Chad Pennington was able to play through his ankle injury for most of the second half of Sunday's game. He's a tough guy and one would imagine he can get ready to play in time for Sunday. Pennington probably sees the writing on the wall and will do whatever he can to keep his job. Clemens will be an interesting player to track when he takes over, but he's not a fantasy option yet except in 2QB leagues.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 2QB leagues

Brady Quinn, Browns

It looks like the Quinn era will start sooner than later, but I'd much rather have a second-year player like Clemens (or Tarvaris Jackson) than a rookie on an offense like the Browns.

Recommendation: Not yet

Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings

He looked very shaky in Week 1, but Jackson faces the Lions this time around. If he can't put up 15 fantasy points against Detroit, it's not going to happen for a while.

Recommendation: Emergency one week option

Josh McCown, Raiders

I watched most of the Oakland-Detroit game, and McCown played worse than his numbers indicate. He is a better fantasy quarterback than in real life, but his lack of job security and unfavorable schedule (DEN, CLE, MIA) makes it likely he won't keep it up.

Recommendation: Only worth a look in 2QB leagues
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Don't Drop

Deion Branch, Mark Clayton - I shouldn't have to say this, but I've received too many panicked emails.

Jerry Porter, Raiders - The lack of separation is a concern, but give Porter a few weeks.

D.J. Hackett, Seahawks - In standard formats, Hackett should be good enough when healthy to save a roster for him.

Drop

Eddie Kennison, Chiefs - He's going to miss this week. The upside when he returns on the struggling Kansas City offense isn't worth holding on to.

[Hache Man]

The Fallacy of Week 1 Analysis
First week's over and it's time to assess the bloody damage. Most of you out there with teams that got waxed in week 1 are already in panic mode, you're rethinking strategies, and drinking Big Gulps full of Robitussin, just to numb the pain. Don't. Or else you'll fall into a tinkering obsession that finds you home by yourself each and every Sunday just waiting for the next Brandon Jacobs knee explosion or the next Drew Carter-like epiphany.

Seriously, just, stick it out for a couple more weeks before you start giving up all your receivers and offering a no-strings boink with your girlfriend in order to get Marshawn Lynch. (Well, that depends upon the current status of your relationship. If you've been looking for an easy exit, maybe now's the time to do it. Marshawn Lynch looks solid.)

Otherwise, don't be the first person to overreact. Wait it out. There are plenty of guys who were completely humiliated in week 1 because they had a Donovan McNabb/Lee Evans/ Steven Jackson lineup that are just aching for redemption. Start seeking out the low-hanging fruit in your chat rooms, IM sessions, and email exchanges.

Observe: "Man, having both Tony Romo and Marc Bulger is just going to have me pulling my hair out all year..."

Or, "God, I always seem to end up with four good running backs…"

Pretty soon, you'll be fielding lopsided trade offers that'll provide you with a stress-free season and you may even land yourself a pretend girlfriend for the weekend. Win-win.

Let's engage this week's list of mighty giants and disposable heroes. …


GUSH:

Green Bay D: Yes, the Packers looked all stout and hearty against a sleepwalking Eagles team, but there may be some legitimacy to this group. Those linebackers appear feisty, plus, there's a front-four pass rush, which is perfect for a one-trick pony like Kabeer Gabaja Ooga Booga to topple the quarterback. (Apologies in advance for the mangling of his name. I'm 100% certain that isn't correct, however the accurate spelling of such a syllable-snarling abomination is for the crack copy editing team at Rotoworld.)

Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders: Yeah, he's been picked up by now. Bye-bye. Like most other people on the planet, I thought it was tough to draft any Raiders this year, especially those considered the team's "number one receiver" on a team without any legit quarterbacks. (Fool me once, Daunte…) However, Curry's been downfield muscle for a couple years now and it appears last week's 133-yard performance has made him the most viable member of The Plata y Negro. However, beware his Hampton, Virginia roots, which may reveal he's a charter member at Bad Newz Kennelz. For now, it's worth the risk.

James Jones, Green Bay: I know, I know…more Packers. However, this guy is last year's Greg Jennings and Favre likes throwing the ball to/at anyone remotely capable of catching it. However, their running game is pitiful, as Brandon Jackson's feet appear to have been the victims of some sort of mafia-esque cement encasing. But remember: it only takes one personal family tragedy to transform all the Packers receivers into John Jeffersons. So, keep this guy stashed away and always scan the obits of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel to keep abreast of the situation.

MAIM:

Deion Branch, Seattle: Speaking of checking the obits…dude, no receptions? For real? I had Deion Branch as my starting WR this week in one league and was rewarded with those lovely - - - - - - - 's across his box score. At first I thought that one high-powered fantasy organization that rhymes with Pah-too had suddenly discovered the way to apply brail etchings into Stat Tracker. Sadly, that wasn't the case.

Clinton Portis, Washington: Yes, he's a repeat MAIM attendee, but only because he actually played well last week and now has me thoroughly confused. Sit the man? Start the man? Sit the man? Start the man? I don't want to think about you, Clinton. You're supposed to suck. But now I'll be forced to start you against the Eagles on Monday Night and you're sure to disappoint. Expect Ladell Betts to score twice and Clinton to be sidelined due to a bizarre cleat malfunction.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego: Just when it looked like everybody's coveted San Diego receiver not named Antonio Gates was actually going to live up to that pre-season hype, he implodes. Jackson had a sure-thing sixer tossed his way, only to have it doink off his shoulder pads. In fact, Vincent dropped a few balls on Sunday, two of which never descended from his stomach. I'll let you guess which two they were.

[Hache Man]

For real or not?
By far the most important thing you can figure out for your team in Week 1 is how much of what happened is real and how much an aberration. Some of that can be difficult to figure out. Some is not so tough -- the Titans are extremely unlikely to rush for 282 yards every week and the Bears probably will score more than three points a week.

The rest of it? Well, that's why we're here. Names like Deion Branch and Antwaan Randle El are either making you very happy or very concerned about your club heading into Week 2. Here are some thoughts to consider, while you're wondering if any of your fellow owners are taking a peak at your research, about some of the hot topics around the league during a hectic Week 1.

The Giants. They could be on the ropes already because of injuries to Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs. The shame of it is not that their season could go down in flames; most of us have been expecting that. The problem is seeing Manning go down after a strong four-TD game against the Cowboys that hinted at real progress out of him. As long as Manning doesn't play, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey take big hits. There simply will not be as much production to go around.

And running back Derrick Ward's chance to be a great pickup as Jacobs' replacement is in jeopardy. With Manning's passing threat, Ward will see a bunch of eight-man fronts. And that is bad news for an unproven runner, albeit one who showed some promise in relief against Dallas.

Deion Branch. The Seahawks' supposed No. 1 receiver was shut out in the opener, something that even coach Mike Holmgren said should not happen. Branch was pretty cheap all summer -- and perhaps this is why. But I wouldn't yank him out of your lineup. Seattle's offense was out of sorts in the opener, as are many rhythm-oriented passing games in Week 1. QB Matt Hasselbeck did not play much in the offseason or preseason because of injuries so give him the benefit of the doubt, and another week or two.

D.J. Hackett also is in the news and has a severe ankle sprain that could sideline him for a big part of the season. He was a popular preseason sleeper and will be replaced by Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram. Don't overlook Engram who is a reliable veteran and has a strong history with QB Matt Hasselbeck. Burleson never has been productive in Seattle and the Seahawks want to save him for special teams. He has limited upside. Backup QB Seneca Wallace is still a long way from being a valuable receiver.

Chris Brown. He went undrafted in many leagues so you'll want to jump on Brown if you have a chance. If you drafted him, you just found some great running back depth. And with a few injuries already sprinkled around the league, he might become valuable great trade bait. You would be better off dealing Brown in the next few weeks if you can.

The Titans likely will remain a run-heavy team because QB Vince Young is not a great passer and they do have a solid offensive line, but Brown has dealt with injuries throughout his career and there is no reason to think that will change. LenDale White also is worth a pickup, but his fumble on the Jaguars 1 dropped his stock.

Raiders quarterbacks. The rest of the NFL world can sweat over what is happening in Cleveland, but the quarterback mess with some fantasy value is in Oakland. An injured index finger on a quarterback's throwing hand does not sound good so if the injury reports are true, let's suppose Josh McCown is out and Daunte Culpepper is in.

McCown had a strong 313-yard, two-TD debut and Culpepper has the same ability, although the Broncos will be a tougher test on the road than Detroit was at home. Culpepper's hold on job would be unclear, but it stands to reason that he would keep it if he played well. Grab him if you need a quarterback.

Bengals defense. Don't buy the hype following six turnovers and a return TD against the Ravens. That was more indicative of Baltimore's problems than any great improvement out of the Bengals. Yes, you will want to play them this week against the Browns; you would want to start me if I lined up by myself against the Browns.

And it seems clear that you'll want to play Cincinnati in its rematch against the Ravens but be very careful in trying to find other spots to play them. There are plenty of shootouts coming for the Bengals.

Antwan Randle El. After a phenomenal 162-yard game in the opener, Randle El already is more than 34% of the way to his previous career average of 472.6 receiving yards a season. Given Randle El's history, the presence of Santana Moss ahead of him and the Redskins' inconsistent passing game, it seems unlikely that Randle El will be a regular producer. But given how huge that game was, you'll certainly want to keep an eye on Randle El. He never has been a regular fantasy threat and likely will not a great one now.

Cedric Benson. His first game as the Bears' feature back was far from a success, as he gained just 42 yards on 19 carries. Yes, that came against one of the league's top defenses in San Diego, but backup Adrian Peterson needed only seven rushes to pick up 38 yards and Peterson got plenty of key second-half carries while Benson stood on the sideline with his much-debated ballcap on.

Nobody is about ready to turn things over to Peterson, but you immediately should start dialing down your hopes for Benson and get ready for the idea that Peterson and Garrett Wolfe will steal a chunk of carries every week.

Tackle injuries. Of all the Week 1 injuries, the two most damaging might have been to Rams left tackle Orlando Pace and Redskins right tackle Jon Jansen. Both were excellent at best and reliable at worst at key positions for their teams' run-oriented offense.

The Redskins, in particular, have had problems with line injuries during coach Joe Gibbs' tenure, hurting both the run game and important pass-protection schemes for young QB Jason Campbell. Both Campbell and RB Clinton Portis will be hurt.

At least the Rams are used to playing without Pace, who missed half of last season to injuries. RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger managed without him then and they ought to now. It is another thing to worry about, however, especially if you already were stressing about Jackson's two lost fumbles in Week 1.

Laurence Maroney. Maroney will have a tough time to living up to the hype that landed him as a first-round pick in many leagues if Sammy Morris keeps getting 11 carries a game and if Heath Evans poaches late, cheap touchdowns. Maroney appears to have the ability to be a star, but the Patriots still do not appear entirely comfortable with him, possibly because of injuries from his rookie season that lingered into this year. Instead of considering him a potential No. 1 back, think about him more as a possible solid No. 2.

John Carney. Josh Scobee now sounds like he will miss a considerable chunk of the season and, at some point, it will be hard for the Jaguars to hold a roster spot for him. Carney is the kicker for now and should be productive. He missed only two out of 25 attempts last year with the Saints, although his range appears all but shot. The Jaguars scored enough that Scobee was fifth in the league with 119 points last year, which represents Carney's potential ceiling.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Rookie kickers. Love 'em or hate 'em, right? The Packers love Mason Crosby now after he nailed three field goals, including the game-winner against the Eagles and appear to have full confidence in him to try any kick. Remember, Crosby kicked at Colorado so he shouldn't be too fazed once bad weather rolls into Lambeau. Grab him if you're on the kicker carousel and possibly the Cowboys' Nick Folk too, though he still has to earn his team's trust. All of those scoring chances can't hurt, though. The Chiefs have moved on from Justin Medlock to Dave Rayner. And I just wasted 11 words.

[Hache Man]

Megatron, Chad, and Eli
In the past I've given Roy Williams a hard time in this space because of his tendency to predict great things for the Lions just before they get blown out, but I'm starting to come around to the idea that he's a very likable guy. While doing a local radio interview Tuesday, Williams revealed his nickname for No. 2 overall pick Calvin Johnson: Megatron. As Williams put it, "He's real quiet. He's a good athlete. He's big as hell. He's Megatron."
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Aside from Megan Fox I'm not much of a Transformers fan, but I'll do everything in my power to make that nickname stick just because we need more players who go by something other than their initials (L.J., T.O., L.T., etc.). Plus, I'm amused by the Detroit Free Press' decision to publish a side-by-side photo comparison of Johnson and Megatron, which is made even better by the fact that the pictures look oddly similar somehow.

Williams also talked about his fantasy football addiction, which includes five teams. "When we're at the stadium and they show the highlights or stats on the screen I'm definitely one of the guys who is paying attention to them," Williams said. Williams also said that he sets all of his lineups on Tuesday, benches players and defenses when he's playing against them, recommends Shaun McDonald as a sleeper, and apologizes to his owners for managing just 20 yards in Week 1.

While Williams moves up a few notches in my book, here are some other notes from around football …

* The Giants continue to say that Eli Manning may be able to play through his shoulder injury in Week 2 and various New York media outlets have been steadfast in reporting the same. However, ESPN continues to insist that Manning will miss at least a month of action with a separated shoulder. John Clayton said Tuesday that the Giants are being less than truthful about Manning's status in order to force the Packers into preparing for two quarterbacks this week.

Meanwhile, the New York Daily News reports that Dr. James Andrews cleared Manning to play as long as he can handle the pain. Manning said Tuesday that he hopes to practice later this week with an eye towards suiting up Sunday, although his status for Week 2 is definitely still up in the air. He may end up missing the game and will almost certainly be a game-time decision, but it seems unlikely that he'll be sidelined for a month unless the Giants have been hiding something.

* Chad Pennington sat out the end of Sunday's game after suffering an ankle injury in the third quarter. Coach Eric Mangini was predictably secretive about Pennington's status Monday, but Pennington is said to have told people that he doesn't expect to play this week and Adam Schefter of NFL Network reports that he's been diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain. If true, Pennington will likely be sidelined for multiple games, giving Kellen Clemens a chance to start.

Going on the road Sunday against Baltimore would be unfavorable for Pennington or Clemens, but the Jets' schedule lightens up a bit with Miami in Week 3 and Buffalo in Week 4. Pennington came back from two shoulder surgeries to throw for 3,300 yards while leading the Jets to 10 victories last season, but he's 31 years old and his lack of arm strength often limits the offense somewhat. If Clemens plays well in his absence, Mangini could have a big decision to make.

* It can often be a sign of a bad organization when a plan fails, but a sign of an even worse organization is when a plan is abandoned so quickly that it didn't even have a chance to fail. Judging from their quarterback situation, the Browns qualify as the latter. Charlie Frye entered training camp atop the depth chart and was named the starter on August 31. Ten passes later and Frye's not only no longer the starter in Cleveland, he's in Seattle following Tuesday's trade.

A third-round pick in 2005, the Browns dealt Frye to the Seahawks for sixth rounder and will apparently turn the starting job over to Derek Anderson. Given all the decisions and preparation that go into getting an NFL team ready for the upcoming season, it's astonishing that someone could be named a starter and then completely fall out of the team's favor within the span of two weeks, all while throwing six incomplete passes.

If the Browns wanted to truly give Frye another legitimate chance with the job, then he obviously needed more than a 10-pass opportunity to do so. And if they didn't really have much interest in giving him that chance, then why bother naming him the starter (or keep him on the roster) to begin with? The move to Seattle is a great opportunity for Frye, who now becomes the potential long-term successor to Matt Hasselbeck in a quarterback-friendly situation.

For the Browns, it means that Anderson will be the one keeping the seat warm for Brady Quinn, who moves one step closer to taking over as a rookie. Cleveland fans no doubt want to see Quinn immediately, but they felt largely the same way about Frye not too long ago. Quinn is the bigger talent, but the offense surrounding him won't do any more favors than it did for Frye. Don't be shocked if you see Quinn taking snaps at some point in Week 2, but don't expect him to thrive.

Two-Minute Drill: True to his word, coach Cam Cameron split the touches between Ronnie Brown (17) and Jesse Chatman (13) in Week 1, although Chatman's bruised knee could change that some in Week 2 … Despite trading for Frye and D.J. Hackett (ankle) being out for at least a month, Seahawks president Tim Ruskell said Tuesday that there are no plans to move Seneca Wallace to wide receiver … Laurence Maroney managed 20 carries in Week 1 despite being on the field for just 30 snaps, with backups Sammy Morris (18) and Kevin Faulk (10) combining for nearly as much playing time … With Manning hurting, the Giants have reportedly talked to the Bucs about Chris Simms … Signed on Tuesday, Reche Caldwell has a chance to quickly emerge as the Redskins' third receiver … With Eddie Kennison (hamstring) out for Week 2, Arena League star Bobby Sippio—about whom "the kid can catch" was said approximately 500 times on HBO's Hard Knocks—will see his first NFL action.

Red Zone: Dr. James Andrews confirmed the initial diagnoses of Terry Glenn's knee injury, meaning that Glenn still has to decide whether to undergo season-ending microfracture surgery or attempt to come back following an arthroscopic procedure … Jonathan Ogden is out indefinitely with a hyper-extended toe and coach Brian Billick indicated Tuesday that he's not sure if Ogden "will be able to come back from this or not" … Losing Ogden will hurt Willis McGahee and make the Ravens' passing game even shakier, as Adam Terry will now be protecting Steve McNair's blindside … Coach Lane Kiffin said Monday that Josh McCown will continue to start, but if reports of McCown suffering a cracked bone in his finger Sunday are true he's likely looking at several games on the sidelines … Meanwhile, Schefter reported Tuesday that Daunte Culpepper may get the nod this week in what is a horrendous matchup against the Broncos' outstanding pass defense.

[Hache Man]

Don't overreact after one week
Let's get a couple of things out of the way immediately: No, the Saints will not be as inept all season as they were in Week 1, Randy Moss just might be that good and, yes, the Bears will outscore the Chiefs and Falcons.

Beyond that? It's still a crapshoot. When the Lions hung with the defending NFC champion Seahawks in a 9-6 loss in Week 1 last year, we thought Detroit might actually have a good year. On the other hand, the Saints' win against the Browns sent both teams off and running.

This game is all about speculation, so let's try to separate some of the facts and fiction:

If the only thing you took from the Patriots' shellacking of the Jets is that Tom Brady and Moss are really good, you aren't paying close enough attention. The troubling development was Sammy Morris getting 11 carries behind Laurence Maroney's 20. That is way too much time for a backup and indicates Maroney will not live up to his first-round billing.

One theory with the Giants was that if they go down this year, they at least will go down swinging. Threats such as wide receiver Plaxico Burress and tight end Jeremy Shockey will let them pile up points even in losses. But they really could collapse with a running game on the ropes without Brandon Jacobs and quarterback Eli Manning's injured shoulder. In a worst-case scenario, Burress does not match his three Week 1 TDs the rest of the year.

Those of us who expected the Lions to come charging out of the blocks should have taken a closer look at the schedule. They made a fraud out of the Raiders' top-ranked pass defense from 2006, but up next is Minnesota (two defensive TDs last week), Philadelphia and then Chicago. Remain careful with Jon Kitna, Tatum Bell and Calvin Johnson through that stretch.

Some split-running back situations quickly gained a bit of clarity. Neither the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams nor the Falcons' Jerious Norwood is a great player, although Williams is more valuable because he splits time almost 50-50 with DeShaun Foster. Norwood's role appears minor at present.

The Jaguars got virtually nothing out of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, but their roles are clear. Jones-Drew will get most of the TDs once the run game comes around. In Dallas, Marion Barber III is the one you want. He had 17 more yards and one TD more than Julius Jones on five fewer touches. Barber is faster, more elusive, more explosive and will be the main back before long.

So what should we make of Jacksonville scoring 10 points and losing to the Titans? First, quarterback David Garrard is not much of an upgrade over deposed Byron Leftwich and you will have to pick your spots in starting him. The wide receivers are worse. Reggie Williams was inactive, Matt Jones was shut out and somebody named John Broussard made headlines with a 47-yard TD.
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