Fantasy Football News 3/6/07

[Hache Man]

Off and Running

The first four days of free agency have been a predictable blur, with roughly 20% of the available market accounted for in half a week. With so much to digest, let's break down the winners and losers and look for the stories beyond the headlines from the wildest week of the NFL off-season.

Six signees with rising fantasy value

Travis Henry, Broncos

Henry is an unremarkable but tough one-cut runner. He doesn't deserve to land in running back heaven, but it's a dream come for his fantasy owners. Henry only needs to be average to cruise to big yardage and ten plus touchdowns, assuming Denver doesn't draft someone who will seriously challenge him. The Broncos should look for someone to help on passing downs, but Henry will be their productive bell cow for at least a season.

Jeff Garcia, Bucs

I was ready to sprinkle dirt on Garcia's career as a relevant fantasy quarterback. Then he signed with Jon Gruden, the swami of wayward and aging veteran quarterbacks. I'd be surprised if Garcia doesn't start the majority of games for Tampa in 2007 and produce solid numbers, whether he's winning or not.

Ahman Green, Texans

Landing in Houston to be their primary running back was as good a situation as Green could reasonably hope for. For the money he's being paid, Green won't face serious competition for carries. His ability to block was crucial in getting the deal done. While Green is unlikely to improve, Edgerrin James showed that any starting running back can be useful enough with the requisite touches.

Wes Welker, Patriots

In Miami, Welker was pigeonholed as a third receiver and may have lost that job to Derek Hagan. The Patriots are giving up a late second-round pick for him because Welker is tough, intelligent, and versatile. He's a slow version of Deion Branch or younger version of Troy Brown, depending on your perspective. Either way, he could catch 70-80 passes and help out in points-per-reception leagues.

Ashley Lelie, 49ers

Okay, so he's softer than Al Davis' jowels. He can't go over the middle and didn't fit in the West Coast offense because of it. But the 49ers offense is all about the vertical strike and they have absolutely no one else to throw to.

I don't understand the criticism this deal received. They signed Lelie for peanuts and needed a receiver badly. Lelie has averaged 17.5 yards-per-catch in his career and could modestly turn his career around as a starter with San Francisco. After Atlanta, he had nowhere to go but up.

David Martin, Dolphins

Martin burned me as a fantasy owner late last season when got hurt, like he always does. But Cam Cameron signed him in Miami, cut Randy McMichael, and proclaimed that the pass-catcher would be a big part of the offense. He may only play ten games, but Martin has potential as a high upside TE2 or pickup in deep leagues.

Five players who took a hit in fantasy value

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

The top-ten fantasy pick that could have been. Mojo might be the most ridiculous combination of short-yardage and passing down ability in the NFL, but his ceiling is only so high with Fred Taylor in the mix. The odds of him scoring 15 times again are very slim.

Mike Bell, Broncos

Travis Henry and Bell have a similar skill set. While the Broncos like Bell's attitude and toughness, he may have to battle with an incoming rookie just to keep the backup spot.

Kevin Jones, Lions

Jones' 2007 season was already clouded because of his serious foot injury. Now he'll have to share carries with Tatum Bell, assuming Bell isn't dealt again. Jones has the game to be a premier 350-touch running back, but fantasy owners will probably have to wait until 2008. Long-term, it's probably best he doesn't push it this year and the Lions know it.

Drew Bennett, Titans

Dynasty league owners should be happy Bennett landed in St. Louis. Scott Linehan will know what to do with his size and speed. For 2007, however, Bennett will have to be content being one of the best third receivers in the league. Expect Isaac Bruce to get cut after this season.

Chris Simms, Bucs
Jon Gruden is not afraid of a quarterback controversy, so Simms better not be either. Simms should actually be grateful that he didn't have to fight off Jake Plummer. He'll have a better chance at beating Garcia.

Trends beyond the headlines

2006 Running Back Class is only getting better

The class of 2006 running backs was the most ridonkulous group I've ever seen. Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Leon Washington, all exceeded expectations.

They should only improve from here. LenDale White, Maroney, and Addai should all take over the primary running back jobs for their teams because of veteran departures.

Note: I will feature these three, along with Cedric Benson and others, in a future column detailing some of the big winners of the 2007 free agency period that stayed put.

No one wants an aging wideout

Joe Horn's agent says a lot of teams are interested in his client, but only Atlanta has had him in for a visit. That's one more visit than Eric Moulds, Bobby Engram, and Keenan McCardell have received. Even younger receivers like Travis Taylor and Donte' Stallworth have mostly been ignored early. Receivers get a lot of headlines, but their low spot on the NFL payscale shows how teams value them – somewhere between kickers and guards.

Bucs GM Bruce Allen and Jon Gruden are trying to save their jobs

They've already acquired Jeff Garcia, DE Patrick Chukwurah, DE Kevin Carter, and FB B.J. Askew. They also re-signed Mike Alstott, gambled by acquiring the rights to Jake Plummer, and have been in play on numerous other free agents. Allen and Gruden are both gamblers when it comes to player acquisition and they are rolling the dice this off-season since they are on the hot seat. Don't expect them to stop.

Nick Saban and Bill Belichick are friends again

Saban inevitably gave an insider's scouting report for Sammy Morris and Wes Welker before the Patriots acquired them. Maybe he knows something helpful about LSU's Dwayne Bowe from recruiting him. Either way, look for the Alabama-to-New England pipeline to get active in 2009.

No one does it better than the Broncos

I don't understand all the praise Matt Millen received for the Dre Bly deal. George Foster was basically a bust in Denver. He was a first-round pick who couldn't keep his position or a starting job. Tatum Bell had chances to be the next great Denver runner every season three years running and never too hold of the job. For those two spare parts and a move from the sixth-round to the fifth-round, Millen sent Denver a Pro Bowl cornerback.

Perhaps Millen made the best of a bad situation after Rod Marinelli decided he didn't want Bly, but he didn't get equal value back.

Denver has proven to be masters of the trade market the last two seasons, absolutely destroying Washington on a couple draft-related deals, and I'm not even counting the Champ Bailey-for-Clinton Portis move. They even got something for Jake Plummer, who is expected to retire. There are already reports Bly doesn't want to be a Bronco. If Denver ends up moving him to Washington, expect them to fleece Vinny Cerrato and Joe Gibbs again.

Using Cap Room Creatively

Fred Taylor's contract with the Jaguars was a good example of how all the newfound cap room can be used creatively. Jacksonville sold the deal as if it will let Freddy retire a Jaguar. But all the upfront money was in the form of a roster bonus. Jacksonville had room to eat a big cap figure this year for Taylor. It wasn't a problem because they had room, but they took away any risk for the future.

Unless Taylor gets better in 2007, I'd be surprised if the Jaguars pay his $4 million base salary next year. They will be able to cut ties with no cap hit. I suspect this strategy was used to a lesser extent in the deals for Ahman Green and Travis Henry. I think these shorter-term deals will be a major trend in the NFL with all the extra cap space. Veterans will get plenty of guaranteed money for a year or two at a time.

I also am continually surprised by how players want to be seen as the "highest paid player ever" etc. Nate Clements got "$80 million" over eight years, but that was only so the 49ers could spread out his signing bonus hit. There isn't a chance in Buffalo that Clements will get to year six of that contract. Five might be an upset. There's a decent chance that Adalius Thomas will earn more from his $35 million contract than Clements will from his deal.

Teams don't heed free agent mistakes of the past

It's hard to justify giving guards and mediocre tackles $7 million a year. In the salary cap era, most great offensive lines are developed, not bought. No one spends more on the offensive line than Jerry Jones, and ask him how that's worked out.

The deals for Derrick Dockery, Leonard Davis, Eric Steinbach, and Langston Walker were the worst in free agency.

Most of the hottest free agent linemen of the last few years have been disappointments or outright busts, including Steve Hutchinson, Justin Hartwig, Mike Wahle, Marco Rivera, LeCharles Bentley, Kevin Shaffer, Damien Woody, Oliver Ross, and Jonas Jennings.

Those players are only from the last few years. Sure, there are a few hits like John Tait in Chicago, but they are much harder to come up with. And before I get any angry letters from Hutchinson/Vikings fans, Paul Zimmerman called him clumsy and overrated this season.

Best example of convincing a fanbase that free agent money was well spent

Writing about new Vikings TE Viscanthe Shiancoe's $18.2 million contract, the Sporting news commented that, "Shiancoe is the type of playmaker the team desperately needs."

Shiancoe has 35 catches and a 7.2 yards-per-catch average in his four-year career.

Players who should be getting more interest

Donte' Stallworth - Our number one receiver available, Stallworth hasn't been called because of a high price tag and news that he's in the substance abuse program.

Travis Henry is in the program as well and he's already been suspended. Next time Henry gets caught puffing, he's out for a year. He still got a big deal and Stallworth should find a decent fit before long. Teams will ignore a possible suspension if you are talented enough.

Bobby Engram, WR - Engram will sign a small deal with a receiver-hungry team and make at least 40 efficient receptions playing the slot.

Musa Smith, RB - The David Martin of available running backs. He's a boom or bust player that is always injured. But you don't find many running backs that are young, talented, and cheap.

Cato June, LB - Maybe he didn't deserve the Pro Bowl nod in 2005, but he's an experienced Cover two linebacker in the prime of his career. It's not like Marcus Washington, Mike Peterson, and David Thornton faded away from Tony Dungy. For the most part, they got better.

Kawika Mitchell, LB- Mitchell isn't a difference maker, but he held his own starting in the middle for the Chiefs the last two years.

Donnie Edwards, LB - If Junior Seau can start for the Patriots, some 3-4 team can figure out how to squeeze another productive year or two from Edwards.

Chris Brown, RB - Could be a high-upside third down back.

Corey Dillon, RB - If he's willing to accept the role, Dillon would make an excellent short-yardage back who only carried the ball 125 times. Philadelphia is a perfect fit.

[Hache Man]

	Dolphins give Joey Porter $32 million deal
	Joey Porter - LB - PIT - Mar. 6 -
	The Dolphins have agreed to terms with LB Jerry Porter on a five-year, $32 million contract. The deal includes a $12 million signing bonus. Porter will be guaranteed $20 million, a ridiculous figure. He's a big upgrade over Donnie Spragan for coordinator Dom Capers' defense in 2007, but it's doubtful the contract holds up well. Many within the Steelers' organization didn't believe Porter's recent play matched his mouth. Source: ESPN.com

[Hache Man]

	Reports: Are Ravens looking at McGahee?
	Willis McGahee - RB - BUF - Mar. 6 - 2:53 p.m. ET
	The Ravens could be pursuing a trade for Willis McGahee. Both the Baltimore Sun and Scout.com mention Tuesday that Baltimore's interest in McGahee is heating up. Jamal Lewis could be out of a starting gig, if true. The Bills are hosting Dominic Rhodes and Chris Brown Tuesday, possibly as a precursor to a deal. Source: Baltimore Sun