First base rankings: Howard will excel again

[The General]

I continue my position-by-position tour in preparation for the 2007 Fantasy Baseball season with a review of the top first basemen.

In preparing this list, I scrawled Albert Pujols' name onto my notes sheet in pen before moving on to the rest of the list. As I worked through the numbers and teams to create this list, I was forced to make a decision on five of the game's most prolific sluggers. Based on minimal playing time at first base and given the variations of individual fantasy leagues (check your league's constitution for eligibility rules), I eliminated them from the first base rankings.

David Ortiz of the Red Sox was the player that caused the most consternation, as he appeared in 10 games at first base. For the purposes of these rankings, I'm leaving him in the DH slot. He'll most assuredly top that list.

The other players left off of the first base rankings are Frank Thomas (two straight years without a fielding appearance), Travis Hafner (four games), Adam Dunn (two games) and Jim Thome (three games). These players will make for a power-laden top of the DH ranking list.

But, enough of the primer. Let's get to the rankings with a Cardinals superstar.


1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Unlike past seasons, there's nobody to challenge Pujols atop the rankings this year. With rare exception (and homer picks), Pujols will be the first player selected in fantasy drafts across the country. After all, he is just now entering his prime at 27 years of age. That's a scary concept considering the fact that he has averaged 45 home runs and 125 RBI over the past four years. And, his batting eye keeps getting better with his walks on the rise and strikeouts falling. Pujols is reportedly past all of those nagging injuries that limited him to 143 games last season, a season that still saw him reach new career marks in home runs and RBI.

2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
Howard still strikes out at an alarming rate (31 percent), but it's what he does with the rest of his at-bats that matters. He demonstrated tremendous power in his first significant action in 2004 (88 games), clubbing 41 extra-base hits with 63 RBI. Howard then translated that into a full season of dominance, and he watched balls fly out of the park in amazement. However, lost in the excitement of his home run barrage was the fact that Howard vastly improved his hitting stroke overall after the break. He hit .355 after the All-Star break, a full 77 points higher than his first-half performance. That portends to a huge 2007 for the 27-year-old slugger across the board.

3. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
After missing 30 games in 2005, Berkman returned to full health in 2006 and established new career marks in home runs (45) and RBI (136) at his new position. His huge numbers were generated in spite of the struggles of the Houston offense as a whole. For his career, Berkman averages 70 extra-base hits per season with a career .304 batting average. The Astros addressed the offensive concerns this off-season with the addition of slugger Carlos Lee. He'll provide great protection for Berkman in the heart of the order. Though he'll play most of the 2007 season at first base, Berkman will retain outfield eligibility based on last year's efforts.

4. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs

Derrek Lee saw very limited action in 2006, but his strong finish to the season may have been a preview of what's to come in 2007. (Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images)
Fantasy owners leaped all over the slugging Cubs first baseman after his monstrous 2005 season, only to see their mid-first round pick limited to 50 games over parts of five months. Owners looking ahead to 2007 were encouraged to see Lee return with a strong September in which he hit .295 with four home runs and 13 RBI. Lee had hit at least 21 home runs in six consecutive seasons prior to his injury-shortened 2006 season, having ramped up his production upon his arrival to Chicago. Lee took full advantage of his move to Wrigley Field, averaging 85.5 extra-base hits over 2004 and 2005. As a bonus for fantasy owners, Lee has averaged 15 stolen bases per season over his last five campaigns. The Cubs have a strong heart of the order and Lee is hungry to reclaim his place among the league's greats.

5. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The reigning AL MVP already had huge power numbers in his history entering 2006, averaging 42.5 extra-base hits in his previous two seasons. The big question for Morneau was when his batting eye and average would catch up to his power stroke. Morneau started slowly (.208 in April), but hit .353 after June 1 to put the Twins into the playoffs. As a result, Morneau saw his OBP rise 71 points over his 2005 totals. The best is still ahead for Minnesota, with youngsters Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau on the rise.

6. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
Teixeira quietly amassed another strong season in Texas and played in every game for the second consecutive season. He topped 30 home runs and 100 RBI for the third consecutive season. Teixeria has been durable during his four-year Major League career with an average of 75 extra-base hits per year (.282 career batting average). He's now entering the prime of his career (he'll turn 27 in April) and will, no doubt, continue to dominate in hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field. The main concern regarding Teixeira entering the season is the strength of his supporting cast outside of his infield mates. The need to sign Sammy Sosa is somewhat disconcerting, although his quest to hit 12 home runs to reach 600 for his career would be engaging.

7. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
Delgado remains one of the most consistent and underrated sluggers in the game. In his first year with the Mets, Delgado slammed 38 home runs with 114 RBI. It marked his 10th consecutive season with at least 30 home runs and 91 RBI (eight 100-RBI campaigns during that stretch). The Mets are loaded and ready to set the table for another power-laden performance from Delgado. Twenty-three year-old Jose Reyes continues to develop his batting eye and posted a career-best .354 OBP in 2006. Reyes and David Wright will keep Delgado at or near the 100-RBI mark for years to come. The big question with Delgado is where his batting average will fall. In the past four years, he's hit over .300 twice and sub-.270 twice. Either way, his power numbers are a mortal lock.

8. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Konerko spurned overtures by the Angels last season to return to the White Sox and posted his third consecutive season with big power numbers and established a new career-high with a .313 batting average. Konerko has averaged 38 home runs and 110 RBI over the past three seasons while appearing in at least 152 games in each season. He will be surrounded by a potent offense (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and the newly re-signed Joe Crede) with half of his games in homer-happy U.S. Cellular Field. Look for another power barrage from Konerko this season.

9. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
The rumors, conjecture and speculation regarding Giambi's past will always be there, but 2006 provided reassurance for Yankees fans and fantasy owners that he'll still be able to put a consistent charge into the ball. After a dismal 2004 season, Giambi has now topped 30 home runs in two consecutive seasons, averaging 100 RBI and 83 runs scored. Giambi slammed 30 or more home runs in seven of the past eight seasons. The only knock on Giambi in recent years is the fact that he's gone four seasons without hitting .300, a mark that was a given in the early part of the decade. There are two fundamental truths heading into 2007. Giambi will continue to have one of the best batting eyes in the game and take advantage of mistakes by pitchers (.413 career OBP). Second, the Yankees will always generate huge run totals with their All-Star lineup.

10. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers

Prince Fielder didn't take long to adapt to the major leagues and should find more consistency with more experience. (Rob Leiter / Getty Images)
It didn't take long for the 22-year old Fielder to become acclimated to Major League pitching from the power perspective. His power production was consistent throughout the season, but he still needs to avoid prolonged slumps that sent him to three full months with a sub-.240 batting average. At the same time, it's amazing that Fielder hit .271 for the year in spite of those funks. The Brewers are developing a strong lineup to complement Fielder, with Bill Hall, Richie Weeks and J.J. Hardy joining veterans Johnny Estrada, Corey Koskie and Kevin Mench. Remember, Fielder is still a young hitter. He'll have his highs and lows, but I believe that this lineup will give him opportunities to generate runs and like his daddy, Fielder will hit his fair share of home runs.

11. Adam LaRoche, Atlanta Braves
LaRoche remains the subject of trade rumors, so his stock could rise or fall a couple of slots depending on his final destination with salary arbitration pending. However, it is abundantly clear that this enigmatic slugger can turn on a fastball. LaRoche ripped 32 home runs with 90 RBI and hit a strong .285, laying rest to some concerns about his high strikeout rate. Additionally, LaRoche improved his batting average 26 points while posting better power numbers (23 more extra-base hits over 2005). With a strong cast around him in Atlanta, the 27-year old slugger could make a run toward 40 home runs this year. If he's dealt, it's possible that LaRoche's numbers could take a hit, depending on the destination.

12. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Helton stands as a player who might be a draft-day bargain this year because of his home run production in 2006. His .302 batting average and 15 home runs were career-lows for a full season, as Helton battled the possibility of being moved from the Rockies. His history suggests that a return to form is certainly possible, as Helton is only 33 years old, but his declining home runs totals over the past several years are a cause for concern. With that said, Helton has hit 67 or more extra-base hits in eight consecutive seasons and carries a career. 333 batting average. It's also impossible to ignore the fact that Helton owns a lifetime .371 batting average at Coors.

13. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics
Swisher continued his development at the plate, splitting time between first base and the outfield for Oakland in 2006. He translated doubles from 2005 into home runs last season, crushing 35 home runs with 95 RBI. Swisher's one glaring hole remains his propensity for striking out (152 last season), although he made great strides with his batting eye with 97 walks to raise his OBP by 50 points over 2005. There are two major concerns with Swisher entering 2007. He continues to struggle at home, where he hit .235 last season. Swisher has also been prone to extended slumps, having hit .196 in two full months (June and July) following a hot start. He rebounded nicely in August and September, but expect the team to sign a veteran bat in case he struggles again.

14. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
To say that Sexson started the 2006 season slowly would be an understatement, but he rebounded nicely after June 1. Sexson hit an anemic .205 for the first two months of the year and .294 for the final four months, including a scalding .365 with six home runs and 18 RBI in September. Sexson achieved his fifth 100-RBI season in the last six years and slammed a career-best 40 doubles. The Mariners struggled in 2006 (21st in runs scored), mainly because of the slow starts by Sexson and company. I would expect a return to competitive ball with Ichiro setting the table for Adrian Beltre, Sexson, Ben Broussard and budding star Kenji Johjima.

15. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
Overbay parlayed his huge 2006 season into a new contract with the Blue Jays and appears primed to take another leap in production this year. He established new career marks with 22 home runs, 92 RBI and an impressive .312 batting average. Most impressive, however, is Overbay's penchant for finding gaps in the outfield. He has slammed 133 doubles over the past four years (33 per season), and is now just hitting his prime. With Vernon Wells re-signed and Frank Thomas added to the heart of the order alongside Troy Glaus, Overbay will reach a new level this season. His first 30-homer, 100-RBI season lays in the offing.

16. Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals

Nick Johnson seems to be finally coming into his own, and there's no reason to doubt he'll continue to produce in 2007. (Rich Pilling / Getty Images)
Johnson's evolution continued in 2006, as the former hot prospect for the Yankees generated career-high numbers across the board. At 28 years old, Johnson is just coming into his own, and has discovered his power stroke. Long regarded as a doubles hitter, Johnson hit 46 doubles last season, but also slammed a career-high 23 home runs. The glaring stat line from 2006 was the fact that Johnson stole 10 bases, an absolute bonus for fantasy owners. The loss of Alfonso Soriano will, without question, affect this lineup somewhat, and the spacious home field doesn't help. But, I don't suspect that Johnson's numbers will trail off significantly. Rather, he'll be a quiet star in Washington, at least in the short term.

17. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
Gonzalez finally earned an every-day job in 2006 and made it count, slamming 24 home runs with 84 RBI. More importantly, his security as an every-day player allowed him to find comfort at the plate and watched him boost his batting average by 77 points to .304. A look inside the splits also demonstrates that Gonzalez wasn't crippled by the dimensions of Petco, as he hit .296 with 10 home runs and 38 RBI. He now appears to have grown into the player that the Marlins expected back in 2000 when they used the first overall selection on him.

18. Nomar Garciaparra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Garciaparra contributed a phenomenal comeback season in his first year with the Dodgers. He hit 20 home runs and drove in 93 runs in spite of the fact that he missed 40 games. That's the reason he lands so low on this particular list. He has played in 122 or fewer games in three consecutive seasons. The possibility for a big year is still there if he can avoid the injuries that have plagued him the last several seasons. Garciaparra possesses a lifetime .318 batting average with seven 20-home run seasons. The Dodgers' lineup should offer him opportunities to plate runs. He'll just need to stay healthy.

19. Shea Hillenbrand, Los Angeles Angels
Hillenbrand joins the fifth team of his career as he moves down the California coast as the first baseman/DH of the Angels. He's been a productive and efficient producer for years, but has always found himself in platoon situations. This season may be no different, as Casey Kotchman is recovering from his injuries and will likely push Hillenbrand to serve in the DH role. Regardless, Mike Scioscia will find a way to get his bat in the lineup. Hillenbrand has averaged 18.5 home runs and 81.75 RBI over the past four years, making him a strong contributor to fantasy lineups. Additionally, Hillenbrand offers fantasy owners positional flexibility, as he'll retain eligibility at 3B

20. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
The youth movement is on in full effect in Arizona, and Jackson will be one of the leaders. Jackson ripped 42 extra-base hits in his first full season at first base and grew tremendously as the season progressed. He hit a respectable .272 in the first half of the season, but elevated his game and found comfort with a .312 average after the All-Star game. I expect Jackson to take a step forward in 2007, rising to low-20s in home runs and 80-90 RBI. In order to push his numbers north of those marks, Jackson will need a lot of help from Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew and the youthful Diamondbacks lineup.

FOX Sports - Fantasy Baseball - First base rankings: Howard will excel again

[dirty]

I do believe Howard will have another big year in that Whiffle ball park he plays in....

[mofome]

i saw helton ranked 140 overall, how my volsman has fallen