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Old 05-04-06, 10:30 PM   #1
dirty
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Arrow Men Among Boys : Some Minor league players to keep your eyes on.

Hamels takes swing with knockout pitches


May 4, 2006
Eric Mack
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Eric your opinion
We're not 6-foot-3, a svelte 170-pound, 22-year-old able to throw the ball through a wall or bend a breaking ball off the table. Most of us anyway.
But we did pay attention when Kevin Costner's character Crash Davis spoke in Bull Durham. We are smart enough to know, if ever in a bar fight, swing with the hand you don't plan on feeding our family with.
If you cannot snake Cole Hamels in your league, snatch up 21-year-old Dodgers prospect Chad Billingsley. (Getty Images)
That Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh lesson was lost on left-handed Phillies phenom Cole Hamels last June when he reportedly broke his (left) hand in a bar fight, further delaying his lightning quick ascension to the big leagues. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way, especially when we learned it while fisting popcorn into our pie-holes.
We should give Hamels a pass on that, though. After all, he was four years old when the film came out.
He's now 22, presumably only fighting with his right hand, literally, and completely knocking out anyone who comes to the plate in Triple-A. It has taken him only two outings since his promotion from Double-A to cause sweat to bead up on the faces of struggling Phillies starters Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, who were top prospects in their our right in the organization.
After debuting in Scranton Wilkes-Barre with seven shutout innings, 14 strikeouts and just three hits and a walk last Thursday vs. Norfolk, Hamels upped himself even more, tossing a two-hit shutout of Richmond, striking out 12 and walking none.
All told in two outings in Triple-A: 26 Ks, one walk and nary a run allowed. And pitch counts now approaching 100, the big-league starter standard.
"Pretty impressive," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "If he can help us, I'm going to get him."
Physically, with three above-average pitches (low-90s fastball, a consistent curve and a sinking and fading changeup, according to Baseball America), he's clearly ready. The question is whether the modern-day Nuke LaLoosh is ready for the big leagues mentally, and if he arrived and happened to struggle, would he be able to handle another return to the minors.
"Columbus took a chance," Manuel told MLB.com, alluding to the explorer credited with discovering America.
If beating the Mets and Braves is a priority in the East, Hamels already has that directive down, apparently. Norfolk and Richmond, the two teams he smoked, are the farm clubs of the Phillies' chief rivals.
Hamels opened the season in Class A Clearwater (1-1 with a 1.77 ERA in four starts) and now has an impeccable minor league resume that includes dominance at every stop. He is 14-4 with a 1.44 ERA and a 0.963 WHIP through 188 career pro innings. He has allowed just 109 hits and amazingly just two homers. All that while striking out 263 batters.
Minor league hitters are just overmatched and we're just overwhelmed. Since getting the promotion to Triple-A and showcasing himself as an imminent call-up, Hamels' ownership in CBS SportsLine's Fantasy leagues rose from 1 percent to 9. Less than two weeks later, as I craft this column, it's at 15 percent.
We say it will rise well past 50 percent once the official call is made.
Considering the struggles of Madson (8.14 ERA, 2.178 WHIP) and Floyd (6.57, 1.865), it might take just one more failed outing. Floyd, who was really strong his last time out, starts Friday vs. San Francisco, while Madson goes Saturday. Then it's a Hamels watch Sunday vs. Syracuse.
Two significant things work in Hamels' favor:
  1. Madson was one of the game's best setup men and his move back to the bullpen would dramatically improve the Phillies in that area (a la Aaron Heilman).
  2. Hamels would give the righty-leaning Phillies a left-hander in their rotation.
"That helps," Manuel told MLB.com. "I love lefties. In fact, I love anybody who can pitch."
Pick up Hamels immediately in all leagues. While we usually try to avoid buy into pitching phenom hype too often, that minor league dominance at every stop is just too good to ignore. He can be every bit as promising as a Felix Hernandez this year.
The only thing that has held back the 2002 No. 1 pick to date has been ticky-tack injuries. And we've already established he learned what hand to fight with in bar brawls.
Cole Hamels' career stats
Year Team W L ERA G INN H R ER HR BB SO
'03 A-Clearwater 0 2 2.73 5 26.1 29 9 8 0 14 32
'03 A-Lakewood 6 1 0.84 13 74.2 32 8 7 0 25 115
'04 A-Clearwater 1 0 1.13 4 16 10 2 2 0 4 24
'05 AA-Reading 2 0 2.37 3 19 10 6 5 2 12 19
'05 A-Clearwater 2 0 2.25 3 16 7 5 4 0 7 18
'06 A-Clearwater 1 1 1.77 4 20 16 8 4 0 9 29
'06 AAA-Scranton-WB 2 0 0.00 2 16 5 0 0 0 1 26
Year Team W L ERA GS INN H R ER HR BB SO
Totals (A-AA-AAA) 14 4 1.44 34 188 109 38 30 2 72 263

Your Plan Bs

If you don't get Hamels, or you're in an AL-only league, you have a couple of intriguing options on the immediate horizon. Dodgers 21-year-old Chad Billingsley or Angels right-hander Jered Weaver.
Stop reading this story for a moment and pick one of them up, preferrably Hamels first.
Hamels was No. 68 on BA's preseason Top 100. Weaver No. 57. Billingsley, a 6-foot-2, 215-pounder, was No. 7. Apparently better than both in the eyes of scouts.
"One of two things could happen," Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told the Los Angeles Daily News this week. "One, an opening could be created. Or two, Chad Billingsley could create his own opening."
Billingsley is certainly stating his own case, regardless of what Odalis Perez (6.40 ERA), Jae Seo (4.85) or Brett Tomko (4.20) are doing.
After a solid seven-inning, nine-strikeout start Wednesday night, Billingsley is 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in six starts for Triple- A Las Vegas, having allowed just 23 hits in 35 1/3 innings. He has struck out 40 while walking only 11, and he's doing that in one of the most hitter-friendly parks and leagues (the PCL).
"It's going to be hard to ignore a guy having this kind of success," Dodgers manager Grady Little told the Daily News.
Perez has been the worst of the Dodgers starters of late and left the club for the Dominican Republic, where his mother is hospitalized. Even if he doesn't make it back in time for his start Sunday, it likely would be Aaron Sele who gets the call in a spot start. Billingsley wouldn't come on short rest.
But for Billingsley it's only a matter of time. And once he comes, he should stick. Take a flier on him in any NL-only league in which you can afford to stash prospects on your reserves. Unlike Hamels, Billingsley has been steady at 5 percent ownership in our Fantasy leagues. He deserves to be at least equal while the two toil in Triple-A.
For those of you in AL-only leagues, we have Jeff Weaver's younger brother for you to jump on as a prospect flier. There are rumors circulating -- unsubstantiated to date -- that Jered could be making his big-league debut Saturday in place of Hector Carrasco (via Bartolo Colon: shoulder, 15-day DL).
Weaver struck out 12 over six innings last Sunday, allowing two runs, one earned, on four hits and a walk. He is now 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA, 38 strikeouts and 27 hits allowed in 29 innings. He has walked just five.
The consensus has been he makes his older brother Jeff, look like Ozzie Canseco. So, in terms of brother comparisions: It's no contest.
His ownership is now at 8 percent thanks to the 3 percent hike caused by the speculation that he's debuting Saturday. We say Jered should be owned in all AL-only leagues that allow reserves, because of his potential to start for a contender. The question is will he be a Fausto Carmona cup of coffee call-up?
With Colon's injury now looking like a few more weeks of shelf time, Weaver could get a look, but the contending Angels will have a hard time giving him a permanent spot once Colon was able to return. John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana or big brother Jeff (6.43 ERA) won't be stepping aside at this point.
Rookie watch

Here are the top rookies in Fantasy to date (stats through May 3):
Top 5 AL Fantasy Rookies
Position, player, team Rotisserie stats
1 CL Jonathan Papelbon, BOS 0W, 0.55ERA, 16K, 0.735WHIP, 10SV
He finally proved human. Don't banish him to rotation just yet.
2 SP John Koronka, TEX (3-1)-3.55-24-1.158-0
Texas really stole this guy from the Cubs right before season.
3 SP Justin Verlander, DET (3-2)-3.52-21-1.109-0
He should top the AL ROY ballot at numerous times this season.
4 C Kenji Johjima, SEA .284 AVG, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 12 R, 0 SB
Numbers look much better when you consider he's a catcher.
5 RP Francisco Liriano, MIN (1-0)-3.31-24-1.408-0
It can't be long before he finally gets his shot in rotation.
Honorable mentions: RP Joel Zumaya, DET; RP Boone Logan, CHW; OF Brian Anderson, CHW.


Top 5 NL Fantasy Rookies
Position, player, team Rotisserie stats
1 LF/C Josh Willingham, FLA .326 AVG, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 11 R, 1 SB
His catcher eligibility gives him the nod as the top Fantasy rookie.
2 1B Prince Fielder, MIL .330-5-17-17-2
Well-deserved April Rookie of the Month winner, but not a C.
3 SS Hanley Ramirez, FLA .287-2-10-22-7
Scouts are brilliant: He really is much better than his '05 numbers.
4 SP Sean Marshall, CHC 2-0, 3.45 ERA, 20 K, 0.872 WHIP
His great start make him the class of the Cubs' rookie SP trio now.
5 SP Taylor Buchholz, HOU (2-1)-2.05-14-0.759
First three starts were solid and boosted ownership to 41 percent.
Honorable mentions: 2B Dan Uggla, FLA; 2B Josh Barfield, SD; SP Brian Bannister, NYM; OF Conor Jackson, ARI; SS Ronny Cedeno, CHC; SP Matt Cain, SF; SP Scott Olsen, FLA; 3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS; SP Fernando Nieve, HOU; RP Takashi Saito, LAD; SP Michael O'Connor, WAS; P Josh Johnson, FLA; RP Ricky Nolasco, FLA; 1B Mike Jacobs, FLA.

On the Verge

Here are some recently hot minor-leaguers worth tracking (stats through Wednesday, May 3):
Minor league hitter hotlist
Position, player, team Minor league numbers
1 SP Cole Hamels, PHI Class A, Triple-A: (3-1)-1.00-55-0.861
Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd should be sweating bullets now.
2 SP Chad Billingsley, LAD Triple-A: (3-0)-2.04-40-0.962
BA: 21-year-old behind only Francisco Liriano coming into '06.
3 SP Jered Weaver, LAA Triple-A: (2-1)-3.72-38-1.103
Not quite as dominant as the two above, but opportunity looms.
4 SS Stephen Drew, ARI Triple-A: .340-6-18-16-1
B.J. Upton is owned by 15 percent, but Drew just 7?! Get real.
5 OF Joel Guzman, LAD Triple-A: .327-6-23-17-2
Andre Either beat him to the bigs, but Guzman will catch up.
Honorable mentions: Triple-A SP Abe Alvarez, BOS; Triple-A OF Corey Hart, MIL; Triple-A OF Nelson Cruz, MIL; Triple-A SP Boof Bonser, MIN; Triple-A OF Lastings Milledge, NYM; Double-A OF Billy Butler, KC; Triple-A 3B/1B Paul McAnulty, SD; Double-A SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL; Triple-A SP Tom Gorzelanny, PIT; Triple-A SP Anthony Reyes, STL; Triple-A SP Renyel Pinto, FLA; Triple-A SP Dana Eveland, MIL; Double-A C George Kottaras, SD; Double-A SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM; Double-A SP Philip Hughes, NYY; Double-A SP Thomas Diamond, TEX; Class A SP Homer Bailey, CIN.

Baby talk

Mike Rocco: What do you think of Justin Verlander? Should I drop Chien-Ming Wang for him?
Emack: Verlander is a rookie and on a less potent team, but his arm is too hot right now to be available in your league. Yes, even dropping a decent Yankee pitcher is advisable at this point. Verlander will strike out more hitters than Wang, even if he might not win as many games. There will be a wall Verlander hits in the second half because he's never pitched more than 150 innings, but that also can be said for Wang. Both pitchers needed to get shut down early last season due to shoulder fatigue after making their big league debuts, so it's hard to say either one is more ready for 180 innings at this point.
Jason Baker, Hudson, Mass.: I'm in a 12-team keeper league. We are able to protect 11 players each year. I released Delmon Young before the draft this year then drafted him in the later rounds. Is it safe to say unless the D Rays are hit with the injury bug that he won't see the Bigs until July? Or if they move Aubrey Huff?
Emack: Huff's status no longer matters. It's a matter of discipline and maturity now. It looks like Young won't be any better than a late summer call-up. And his exact suspension hasn't been handed down yet, so he might not even be eligible to play -- even in the minors -- until July.
You can e-mail your prospect or rookie questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.


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