NASCAR Fantasy Preview for Phoenix

[Ego74]

Live from Phoenix, it's Saturday night!

SportingNews.com - Your expert source for NASCAR Auto Racing stats, scores, standings, blogs and fantasy news from NASCAR Auto Racing columnists


This weekend's Subway Fresh Fit 500 marks the first of eight Sprint Cup races that will be run on Saturday night this season. That's one more than last year, with the July 12 Chicagoland 400 being the new addition to the group. Saturday night races provide more of a party atmosphere, compared with Sunday afternoon starts that feel more like picnics. Lights around the track make the 43 cars shinier, sparks are more readily seen, fans can swill beer all day as compared to just the morning hours, and the possibility exists for a full moon. Maybe that's the way to bring out the wolf in a driver and have that fella throw his helmet in disgust at the competitor turning him around or into the fence. Matt Kenseth and David Gilliland, here's your chance to really get it on.


But before we sit back and enjoy this one, let's be thankful for the safety of Michael McDowell following the hardest wreck I've ever seen in my life. For McDowell to walk away from last week's wreck during qualifying at Texas and be able to race on Sunday and again this week in his hometown of Phoenix says so much about NASCAR's safety advancements. You know when the "Today" show and Ellen DeGeneres want to interview you, you were part of something spectacular (in a bad way, of course). I wish McDowell nothing but the best as he tries to maintain his spot in the top 35 in points.


I don't think much of McDowell as a fantasy performer, but his value did rise $300,000 in Sporting News' Fantasy Stock Car Challenge last week. It's hard to turn your back on a guy who was the second-highest gainer from the previous week, even if he's destined for a 30th-place finish.
Then again, this might be the week he does well. Call it the theory of hometown boy does well in front of his home fans.


TOP TIER
Carl Edwards. If you bought Edwards prior to Texas or are thinking about doing it now for Phoenix, realize that this race is the last one you'll want Edwards in until the series heads to Darlington. Edwards started on the pole here last November and led 87 laps before his engine expired. This is an incredible run he's on, and owners in salary cap leagues should begin figuring out what it takes to get Edwards on their rosters. Also interesting to note is that fellow Roush drivers Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth finished second and third last year at Phoenix, respectively.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Throw out his 82.7 driver rating here, because it's not applicable anymore. Hendrick Motorsports' strength at Phoenix gives Earnhardt new life at a track where he used to dominate in 2002-04. All of the notes-sharing that HMS does is helping Junior, and that gives him a fighting shot to win this weekend. This upcoming stretch is also a terrific time to own Junior -- he has multiple wins at Talladega (five) and Richmond (two), the next two tracks on the schedule.
Kevin Harvick. In the past four Phoenix races, Harvick has four top-10 finishes, including wins in both of the 2006 events. He's second to only Jimmie Johnson in driver rating, and his 1,669 laps in the top 15 in the past six races also are only second to Johnson. He's also typically good at Talladega and Richmond, making him another good guy to buy for the longer term.


MIDDLE TIER
Martin Truex Jr. Had he not blown an engine in the closing laps last week at Texas, Truex would be entering Phoenix with a top-10 finish. I remember Truex leading 72 laps in the November race here last year, so I'm not going to dismiss him after just one blown engine. However, knowing how many blown engines Dale Earnhardt Jr. had last year with DEI, I hope this is not the start of a trend for Truex.
Jeff Burton. Seriously, when the Sprint Cup points leader costs only $10.11 million in Fantasy Stock Car Challenge -- or about $4.5 million less than Jimmie Johnson, you have every reason to add Burton to your roster. Burton isn't on just some unexplained run -- all of Richard Childress Racing is running well. In the past four races, no RCR car has finished worse than 12th. This group is getting it done, and Burton is the cheapest of the three.
Greg Biffle. Yes, his last two races at Martinsville and Texas were bad (20th and 39th, respectively), but Phoenix should be a different story. Biffle did not lead any laps at either Phoenix race last season, but no one has led more in the past six races than he. Biffle finished second here last November, so I anticipate the No. 16 getting back on track.


BOTTOM TIER
Johnny Sauter. Had there been assurances that Sauter would be in the No. 70 for more races beyond Phoenix, I would have considered picking him up in Stock Car Challenge. If trades limits aren't an issue for you, Sauter is worth taking a look at. Two of Sauter's three career top-10 finishes have come at Phoenix, and he even qualified fifth in last November's race. I anticipate Haas CNC sticking with Sauter, but you just never know if a Ward Burton comes out of the woodwork.
J.J. Yeley. He's on his second crew chief and still hasn't finished any better than 25th this season. But like McDowell, Phoenix is Yeley's hometown, and Yeley typically has fared well at this track. He qualified fifth here in the No. 18 last season, and he finished 14th. The No. 96 car that he now drives, Tony Raines qualified that car eighth last year. Give him a look only if others don't look good to you.