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| | #1 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Call It A Comeback Hey everyone. I'm having a great time in Stamford, CT covering Olympic hoops for NBCOlympics.com. I'm doing live commentary on both men's and women's games and it's been a good learning experience. I've got the U.S. women in the morning at 8 AM and am currently in my hotel room watching Team USA vs. Greece on Thursday morning. Mike McCollow, a former Raptors' assistant coach and current analyst covering the Bucks and Wolves for Fox Sports, is covering the U.S. vs. Greece game. Despite the fact that he pimped me out of several "big games," we've bonded at a local watering hole offering cheap refreshments and a solid television setup that's perfect for watching Michael Phelps do his thing. It's also a good place to watch Jonathan Horton woof to the cameras, although I always feel like I've stumbled across that reality show about the "two Coreys" when that happens. Meeting some of the other commentators for the live, on-line action has also been cool. Daria Schneider is covering women's fencing and just missed a trip to Beijing this year. She was the 2007 NCAA fencing champion and is currently 7th in the world. I fully expect her to be in the 2012 Olympics. Imitiaz Anees is covering the equestrian commentary and was in the Sydney Olympics and is planning on making several more Olympic appearances in upcoming years. Rotoworld's own Matt Pouliot is covering the men's baseball and we're going to see the batman movie tonight. Lones Wigger is covering the shooting competition and is a four-time Olympian and a gold medal winner. He is in the U.S. shooting hall of fame and holds several world records. And Bill Endicott is covering rafting, and has an incredible Olympic resume, including as a participant and coach for the U.S. team. And me? Well, I was cut from my seventh-grade hoops team. Oh well. Anyway, as for fantasy hoops, the return of Dwyane Wade has inspired me to tackle 10 topics to think about as the fantasy season approaches. Let's get to it. 1. The Return of D-Wade Wade looks fantastic throughout the Olympics thus far. Through the first half of Game 3, Wade has hit 17-of-21 shots and is clearly a leader of this team as the sixth man. In addition, he looks to be at full speed, and it's hard to believe there were questions as to whether or not he was ready to go to Beijing. He's also been hitting the weight room and says he's stronger than ever. Watching him in these three games gives me no reason to doubt him. Wade has a chip on his shoulder and is not happy with how quickly he's been dismissed as a superstar due to injuries. He's going to come back with a vengeance this season and should be a beast. Go ahead and put Wade back near the top of your fantasy cheat sheets. I wouldn't take him in front of Kobe, LeBron or CP3, but after they're off the board, it's Wade time. He could easily finish as the No. 1 fantasy player this season if he can stay healthy. And I hope he does. 2. LeBron Has a New Friend LeBron James finally has some help in Cleveland. Mo Williams was traded in a three-team deal that will finally give LeBron a second scoring threat, a point guard and an outside shooting presence all in one player. Mo-Will caught some flack for having the ball in his hand too much last season in Milwaukee, but should be a perfect fit in Cleveland. The offense will still run through LeBron, but Williams will usually bring the ball up the court. Williams' numbers shouldn't take too much of a hit in Cleveland, if any, and he will be a pretty popular point guard pick. I'm thinking he'll go in the fourth or fifth round in most leagues, and should offer value in that range. Great move for Cleveland, although we still have to figure out who will start at shooting guard. Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Sasha Pavlovic and Daniel Gibson will all see minutes there, so I wouldn't count on much fantasy value from the 2 in Cleveland this season. 3. Center-less Who in the world is going to play center for the Nuggets? Marcus Camby is gone, leaving Nene, Chris Andersen and Steven Hunter as the big men left on the roster. And given Nene's health concerns, George Karl is probably starting to freak out a bit. I really have no idea if any of these guys will have fantasy value, but Nene is obviously the best bet. But with such a lack of depth and star power in the middle, the Nuggets have a huge problem. Don't count on Denver's starting center helping you too much in fantasy this year. 4. What's the Point? With the Mo Williams trade, the point guard job in Milwaukee now appears to be a two-man race between Ramon Sessions and Luke Ridnour, while Tyronn Lue could also win some minutes. Sessions was a beast at the end of the season, averaging 11.5 points, 11.3 assists and 1.5 steals over the final 10 games of the season when Williams was out with thumb surgery. Ridnour came over in the Williams trade and will battle with Sessions for the job. At this point, I'm going with Sessions, although an inside source has told me that Sessions isn't exactly a coach's dream. The reality will probably be that Ridnour remains in a timeshare, just as he has for most of his career. Both Ridnour and Sessions are worth a draft pick at this point, but I wouldn't target them until the later rounds of your draft roll around. But it will be very important to watch the position battle throughout training camp. 5. King-sized Problem? With Ron Artest heading to Houston we are left wondering how the lineup will shake out in Sacramento. You have to think John Salmons and Francisco Garcia will share the small forward duties for Reggie Theus, but it's impossible to figure out who is going to start this early. We know Beno Udrih is the point guard and that Kevin Martin is the shooting guard, but every other position is a question mark. Mikki Moore, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kenny Thomas and rookie Jason Thompson will all share power forward minutes, Garcia and Salmons will probably split SF down the middle and Spence Hawes and Brad Miller will split time in the middle. Hawes needs to get off to a hot start while Miller serves a five-game drug suspension, but a timeshare should end up being the end result once Miller returns. I would plan on drafting Salmons in front of Garcia, as Salmons has more upside and contributes in more categories. But it probably all depends on which guy Theus gets along with better. 6. Sixth Hawk? Maurice Evans was looking like a strong sleeper pick until Wednesday, when Atlanta signed free agent Flip Murray. Both Evans and Murray have solid offensive skills, but have never been given a chance to show them on a full-time basis. They'll compete for the sixth-man job, with Evans as the early favorite to win it. But Murray started several games at point guard for the Pacers last year and the fact he can play three positions makes him an intriguing player as well. Put both guys on your sleeper list and don't be afraid to grab them at the end of your draft. Just don't expect any miracles. 7. Roy's Knee Surgery Brandon Roy will have arthroscopic knee surgery today to repair a torn meniscus. He recovered in three weeks the last time he had similar surgery on his right knee, but we also have to worry about doctors finding something else wrong when they're in there. He should be ready to go by the start of the season and I'm not dropping his value at this point. But it's a situation worth monitoring closely over the next month or so. 8. Can I Calderon You? I've yet to run the final projections for the Draft Guide yet, but Jose Calderon is looking like a Top 5 point guard. And given Jason Kidd's disappearing act in Dallas and Beijing, Calderon might be the fourth point guard taken in your draft. And he probably should be. In case you missed it, T.J. Ford was traded to the Pacers and Calderon is now a full-time starting point guard. And the sky's the limit. 9. No, Don't Gallinari Me Danilo Gallinari is fool's gold, just like Adam Morrison was. The only person I've been able to locate who knows anything about the guy is Mike D'Antoni. He was a bad draft pick for the Knicks, he's already hurt and he's going to make no impact this season. Stay away. On the other hand, Jerryd Bayless is a super-rookie sleeper candidate. Love him. 10. A Message For You, Rudy I was a little thrown off at the start of the Spain vs. Germany game last night when I failed to initially realize that Rodolfo Fernandez was Rudy. He's going to play for the Blazers this season and is widely regarded as the best European player never to suit up in the NBA. He's got a tremendous game and can contribute in all categories, but it's still unknown how many minutes he'll get for Nate McMillan. Target him late and hope he's a steal. In addition, Marc Gasol will be competing for the starting center job in Memphis, possibly sending Darko Milicic to the bench. Gasol is a Bigfoot look-alike and has some skills, but I'm guessing that Darko will have a little more value, even if coming off the bench. Just like in Denver, there's not much to get excited about regarding the Grizzlies' centers this year. And speaking of Bigfoot, look at what they supposedly found in my backyard!! |
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| | #2 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Monta's Mystery There are several intriguing stories around the NBA this offseason that will have some fantasy impacts. The Truth About Monta We've all heard about the unfortunate ankle injury suffered by Monta Ellis. I don't expect him to be at full strength until after the All-Star break, as he did some really serious damage. He says he was working out when it happened, but the Warriors reportedly don't believe him. And unless he dropped a huge set of barbells on his foot, it's hard to imagine him suffering such a serious injury by simply "working out." Don't be surprised if that "work out" didn't happen on a motorcycle. The team can fine, suspend him or terminate his contract if he was injured while acting irresponsibly, but it's doubtful that they would actually terminate his new deal, regardless of how the injury happened. Then again, it depends on how all of this shakes out. And until the team proves otherwise, we have to assume that Ellis is not lying about the injury. The fantasy impacts here are huge. Marcus Williams will start at point guard and is now worth a mid-round pick. I thought he'd be starting eventually, but the fact the opening-night job is his is huge. Stephen Jackson's spot in the rotation is solidified, as his role was going to be a little up in the air if Ellis would have been bumped to shooting guard, with Corey Maggette locking down the small forward spot. Williams is going to be a serious sleeper candidate in your draft and should make for an excellent second point guard. A Message For You – The Evolution of Rudy Step 1: Rudy Fernandez is drafted by the Blazers a couple years ago, but will stay in Europe. We're all intrigued as to what kind of fantasy player he might be in the NBA. Step 2: Rudy says he's going to play for the Blazers this year. Everyone is intrigued, although it's impossible to figure out where he fits in to the Blazers' rotation. Step 3: Rudy plays for Spain's Olympic team and looks fantastic though the preliminary round as optimism grows in the fantasy community. Step 4: Rudy throws down a sick dunk in the face of Dwight Howard and Team USA in the gold-medal game and swings on the rim like the Grape Ape. He immediately jumps from a late-round fantasy pick to an eighth-rounder. Step 5: Nate McMillan raves about his new possession/obsession, firmly entrenching Rudy as the "sleeper of the year" in everyone's mind: "I was so impressed with him that it was to the point where after the second time I saw him, I didn't sleep that night because I was moving my rotations around," McMillan said. "I swear I did not sleep. I could not sleep thinking about him. Because I'm saying, 'We can put him here, do this with him, do that with him and Brandon (Roy), and do this...So he's playing for us. Oh yeah. I see that right now." And if McMillan losing sleep over Rudy's arrival doesn't give him a final boost of hype that will have owners overpaying for him, nothing will. But count me in with everyone else who is excited about seeing him in the NBA. Brandon Roy could play a lot of minutes at point guard and small forward to get Rudy on the floor, and you can bet that Nate is going to get creative in order to find a way to get him minutes. It will probably be too early, but someone in your draft will jump on Rudy in the fifth or sixth round. Steve Blake is set to start at point guard, but Roy will see minutes there (once he's recovered from knee surgery) and rookie Jerryd Bayless is also likely to play some point. Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw will battle for the starting small forward job, but it sounds like McMillan is envisioning Webster as his starter, with Outlaw coming off the bench. Now the question with Outlaw is, will he get enough shots? He's going to be competing with guys like Rudy, Bayless, Oden and even Channing Frye for touches if he's coming off the bench. The Heat Is On I expect the Heat to be much better this season, but point guard is still a huge question mark. The team is still waiting for Chris Quinn to accept a contract offer and the starting job is a toss up between Quinn, rookie Mario Chalmers and career backup Marcus Banks. You have to think Stephon Marbury may be in Miami before all is said and done, and they really could use him. Another question mark is who will start at power forward. The Miami Herald has Udonis Haslem penciled in, but it's hard to imagine Michael Beasley not starting. A probable starting five of Banks, Dwyane Wade (who looked awesome in Beijing), Shawn Marion, Beasley and newly signed Mark Blount doesn't look too bad on paper. But they need a point guard, so keep your eyes peeled for news on Marbury heading to Miami. Kidding Around People who watched Jason Kidd running Team USA's offense think he's on his last legs. I don't care if he's lost a step and no longer has the ability to score at will (or at all), the rebounds, assists and steals are still going to be there this year. If you can handle him scoring just eight or so points per game, he should remain a very serviceable point guard. And he won't cost you an arm and a leg this year. Target him late in the second round, but don't be fully surprised if he ends up falling to the third. If you can handle the lack of offense, go for it. Bigfoot Sighting Marc Gasol looked pretty solid for Spain in the Olympics and will battle for the starting center job in Memphis. He'll get competition from Darko Milicic and a relatively unknown Iranian named Hamed Haddadi, but I bet Gasol gets the job as Memphis tries to convince the world that they didn't actually trade his brother, Pau, for nothing. I'm not expecting big numbers from Marc, but he might be a serviceable second fantasy center this season. Haddadi is an unknown, and Darko is one of the biggest busts of all time. And with Grizzlies management constantly grabbing at straws like Gasol and Haddadi, it leads me to believe that they have no faith in Darko. And why should they? Ice Cold Beer, Here! How good are the Bucks going to be? I think they're a playoff team with Richard Jefferson on board, but like the Heat, the question remains about their point guard position. Luke Ridnour looks like the starter, and he should be backed up by Ramon Sessions. But with a starting five of Ridnour, Michael Redd, Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut, they could do some damage. All five starters should have some fantasy value, but I would wait on Ridnour until the later rounds of your draft. Villanueva, on the other hand, appears to be primed for a comeback this season and makes for a nice sleeper. Feeling Minnesota Kevin Love will likely start at center for the Wolves, allowing Al Jefferson, who will probably go in the second round of most drafts this year, to play power forward. With a starting lineup rounded out by PG Randy Foye, SG Mike Miller and SF Ryan Gomes, the Wolves should be more competitive this season. Love should be a decent second center for fantasy teams, but I wouldn't plan on using a valuable pick on him. If someone else wants him in the fifth round, let them have him – Unless all the centers are off the board and you still don't have one. No Way, Jose! Jose Calderon was not great at the Olympics and didn't play in the final few games with a groin injury. But he should be fine by the start of the season, and despite his disappointing run in Beijing, I still think he's going to be fantasy stud this season. In fact, he should be a Top 5 point guard and I'm not ready to bump him down the list of fantasy point guards just because of a weak showing with Spain. The numbers from last season's run with Toronto don't lie, and without T.J. Ford around, he should be a big-time fantasy performer this season. But I would feel a little better about him right now if he was healthy and had he put up some solid numbers in the Olympics. The Kids Are Right The last two reports on Andrew Bynum say that he is ready to go this season and should come in fully healthy. He's a risk/reward player, but will obviously be one of the first centers taken in your draft. I'm still not sure where I will have him ranked, but you might as well plan on spending a third- or fourth-round pick on him if you want him. Greg Oden is reportedly in amazing shape and the Blazers are even happier with his progression than they thought they would be. Along with Bynum, he's going to be a popular pick somewhere between the third and fifth rounds this year. Nash Confusion Suns' management (aka Steve Kerr) says he's going to limit Steve Nash to 70 games and cut his minutes this year. The idea is to keep him fresh for the playoffs and possibly prolong his career. Of course, this is very similar to the plan Don Nelson used to roll out about Baron Davis every season about this time. Now I doubt Kerr is another Nellie (or at least, I hope not), but it's important to note that no matter how many times Nellie has said this, Davis always played mega-minutes because Nelson never thought he could win with Davis on his bench. Well, except for that one time at the end of last season with the playoffs on the line when Nellie suddenly decided that Baron wasn't worth playing in the second half – which is probably the reason Davis is now in Los Angeles. Anyway, I think the 70 games, less-minutes plan is a great idea, but I am not sure how new coach Terry Porter, or Kerr, are going to feel about benching Nash in a tight game and turning to guys like Goran Dragic and Sean Singletary to run the offense – Especially given the fact they have a total of ZERO NBA games under their collective belt. I think the "less-Nash theory" is worth taking into consideration, but like Nash himself, I think it's much easier said than done. "We'll see how it goes," Nash said. "Those are great intentions, but is it realistic? We'll see. I feel like you can always use the rest," he continued. "If you can get to the postseason well rested, it's perfect. But you can't always afford to do that." Stay tuned. |
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| | #3 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Is Marvin Going To Break Out? I suspect some of you feel like your fantasy football season is already over after the Tom Brady loss. It's similar to what Gilbert Arenas owners felt like last year, except that it happened much faster. At least Arenas was around for a few games. Anyway, if you're giving up on football already (and even if you're not), here are some team notes to help bide time before the NBA season gets here. Training camps start at the end of this month. The Draft Guide is coming along and we're shooting for a target date of sometime around Sep. 20. Most of the projections and outlooks are complete, although there are still some serious question marks out there…Like Ben Gordon, Bonzi Wells and several players with first names ending in "arko" if this Zach Randolph trade is going to happen. Here are 15 teams and I'll cover the second 15 within a week. Atlanta Hawks Everyone I've spoken with that has anything to do with the Atlanta Hawks seems to think this is the year Marvin Williams is going to blow up. He's put on a bunch of muscle and has been working on the 3-point shot. I am still concerned about what happens to him if the Hawks ever stumble into a true center, but so far, that hasn't been a concern. Randolph Morris, Zaza Pachulia, Solo Jones… On a side note, I've heard some pretty good things about free-agent signees Othello Hunter (PF) and Thomas Gardner (SG). So if you're in a super-deep fantasy league and are looking for an edge, sources tell me both guys are legit. But back to Marvin for a second. If they were to actually start a real center, Al Horford would move to PF, Josh Smith would move to SF (his ego would not handle a role off the bench with any hint of class) which would leave Marvin coming off the bench. But I'm going to go with the idea that Josh Smith is right, Marvin is set to bust out this year and Horford will start at center on most nights. And since the Hawks have no real threats at center, Marvin's job is safe. Just keep in mind that Marvin will miss the first game of the season due to a suspension. Boston Celtics Outside of the fact Doc Rivers signed a three-year contract extension, all is quiet with the Celtics. Possibly because every sportswriter in the city is on "Brady Alert" right now. Oh, and rookie Bill Walker is recovered from knee surgery, although I doubt he plays much of a role this season. www.bostonceltics.ws Charlotte Hornets Adam Morrison is scrimmaging after last season's knee surgery, but is understandably quite tentative. I wouldn't recommend drafting him this year. Emeka Okafor has yet to show up for voluntary workouts and scrimmages, but he signed a new deal and should be in Charlotte soon. Jason Richardson sat out yesterday's scrimmages with a shoulder injury, but it's not believed to be serious. Shannon Brown is a new face and will play a reserve role in Charlotte. He is said to be looking good, but there shouldn't be a reason to draft him in most leagues this year. Chicago Bulls I'm not sure things could be any quieter in the Windy City. We're still waiting to find out what will become of Ben Gordon, but thus far, there's nothing to report. Gordon still has to decide between accepting the Bulls one-year qualifying offer, or the six-year, $59 million offer that is still on the table. He was said to be negotiating with a team in Russia, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Stay tuned. Beware of Kirk Hinrich this season, as Derrick Rose will at least force a timeshare at point guard, if not steal his job altogether. Cleveland Cavaliers The Cavs signed C Lorenzen Wright (to back up Zydrunas Ilgauskas) and rookie forward Darnell Jackson. Neither guy should have fantasy value in standard leagues. LeBron James continues to tick off people in Cleveland. He was hugging Jerry Jones and rooting for the Cowboys against the Browns last week, but the people of Cleveland are basically biting their tongues in hopes that he'll stick around in the summer of 2010. I think it's a long shot at this point, but only he knows for sure. Mo Williams is the new point guard and Wally Szczerbiak appears to be the favorite to start at shooting guard, over Delonte West. Wally has some sleeper potential, but he's an injury risk and there may not be enough shots for him with Mo, LeBron and Ilgauskas on the floor. Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle says that we should not "underestimate greatness" when looking at Jason Kidd. While the perception is that he has lost a step and "sucked" for the Mavs last season, the numbers were still there. He averaged just 9.9 points in Dallas, but still posted 6.5 boards, 9.5 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, cut his turnovers down from 3.6 to 2.8 and hit 42.6 percent of his shots. In fantasyland, that's still something pretty special, regardless of the lack of offense. You never drafted Kidd for offense in the first place. It's hard to believe that with those numbers he only produced one triple-double in Dallas. He was not exactly blowing minds in the Olympics and the hoops world is down on Kidd right now, meaning you can probably steal him on draft night. He's still a No. 1 fantasy point guard, obviously, and things are looking up now that the "Little General" is gone. www.dallasmavericks.ws Carlisle is also hinting that Jerry Stackhouse might be his starting shooting guard. I'm not sure Jason Terry is ready for a role off the bench, but any way you slice it, this looks like the year Terry's production is going to start dropping off. DeSagana Diop is back in Dallas and will also challenge Erick Dampier for the starting center job. Neither guy should probably be considered a No. 1 fantasy center at this point. Denver Nuggets There's been no news coming out of Denver lately, but I can't help but get hung up on the problems they're going to have at center with Marcus Camby wearing a Clippers jersey this season. The depth chart is laughable, with Nene, Chris Andersen and Steven Hunter set to the man the paint. In addition, that's going to probably negatively impact Kenyon Martin as well, as he's going to have to handle most of the work on the glass in Denver. His numbers might be up initially, but you have to wonder how long his body is going to hold up. Melo's still in shock that the Nuggets gave Camby away and it looks like they're going to have some serious issues on the defensive end of things this season. Detroit Pistons So much for the big shakeup. The Pistons didn't really do anything this summer, other than adding Kwame Brown to the mix. Like I said, they didn't do anything this summer. Rodney Stuckey will be overvalued in every fantasy league. I love him, but he has to find a place to play and I just don't see where that's going to happen, outside of backing up both guard positions. The Pistons are likely going into the season with only 14 players under contract, giving them room to sign a free agent at some point. Amir Johnson could be a guy who develops into a fantasy stud this year. If it happens, it will likely be at the expense of Antonio McDyess. Johnson should be worth a late-round flier in all leagues, as should Jason Maxiell. Houston Rockets Rafer Alston has a DWI trial coming in October and still hasn't been cleared to play basketball after ankle surgery. He says he's feeling good, but his status for opening night is still a little unclear. I suspect he'll be ready to go, but Aaron Brooks should get some run this year as well. Shane Battier could be the odd man out with the trade for Ron Artest, so I'd stay away from Battier until the end of your draft. The team still intends to sign PF Carl Landry and back up center Dikembe Mutombo before the start of the season. I love Landry's game, but Luis Scola should be the starter this year. Yao Ming should be back up to speed after slogging his way through Olympic games, but I am very leery of using a Top 24 pick on him this year. I've generously got him at 68 games, but that's very optimistic. In case you forgot, he's played just 57, 48 and 55 games in each of the past three seasons. Golden State Warriors Marcus Williams will be a huge sleeper pick this year with Monta Ellis' season in doubt. I suspect Ellis will play at some point, but we don't know enough about how his body will respond to surgery. I projected him at just 35 games, so we'll see. Stephen Jackson is going to have a HUGE year, in my opinion, and should be an elite fantasy player – if you can handle the shooting percentage and turnovers. Other guys to keep an eye on are backup point guard C.J. Watson (in case Williams can't handle the job), SG Marco Belinelli, PF Brandan Wright and rookie Anthony Randolph, who should back up Corey Maggette. Kosta Perovic, a backup center, appears to be heading to Spain. That would mean Ronny Turiaf and Al Harrington will likely both be playing a lot of center behind Andris Biedrins. Indiana Pacers There are rumors that the Warriors might be interested in moving Al Harrington for Jamaal Tinsley. I am not sold on this one, as Harrington has already had a couple stints with the Pacers and Tinsley's just not as good as he is. There is also speculation that Don Nelson would have interest in Marquis Daniels. While these are just rumors, with the injury suffered by Monta Ellis, the Warriors are likely looking for another point guard. The Pacers are prepared to let Tinsley sit at home until they can trade him. Danny Granger and the Pacers are communicating, but the talks haven't been serious enough to give any indication that a contract extension is close to getting done. If an extension doesn't happen, Granger will become a restricted free agent and the Pacers will have the right to match any offer he receives. Granger will be a popular third-round target in fantasy leagues, and could even be worth a late second-round pick. And the fact he'll likely be playing for a contract doesn't hurt either. I also like Troy Murphy this year, as he'll be able to focus on playing PF full time. Look for a bounce back season and consider him a sleeper. The starting center job is up for grabs between Jeff Foster and Rasho Nesterovic, but the two will be locked into a timeshare all year. www.indianapacers.ws Los Angeles Clippers Cuttino Mobley appears to be a strong bust candidate this year with Eric Gordon nipping at his heels. Avoid him on draft day. I'm not sure how Chris Kaman and Camby are going to fare together, but both players should still be high-quality draft picks in fantasy leagues. I've got Camby projected at 9.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.4 blocks, while Kaman comes in at 14.9 points, 9.8 boards and 1.9 blocks. Let me know what you think about that, as the whole thing just confuses me. Al Thornton should be the starter at small forward and appears to be primed for a big year. I've got him projected at 15.8 points and 5.9 boards – putting him somewhere close to No. 20 on the small forwards list. Los Angeles Lakers Andrew Bynum has reportedly looked fantastic in scrimmages and should be fully healthy by the start of the season. And if you want to play some Halo against him on XBbox Live, his handle is AndrewBynumXT. With a starting five of Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant (who is not going to have finger surgery after all), Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Bynum, someone's numbers are going to take a hit. Gasol's rebounds will be down slightly, Kobe's points may be down slightly and Odom remains a bit of mystery. Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic will battle for the role of sixth man. I like Ariza here, as Walton is coming off ankle surgery and Radmanovic just isn't that good. Jordan Farmar should see an increased role off the bench, making Fisher a possible fantasy liability, while I would be surprised if Odom's numbers don't take a fairly decent hit this year. If I was drafting today, I would take LeBron at No. 1, Kobe at No. 2 and either Chris Paul or Amare Stoudemire at No. 3. The Lakers also signed guard Brandon Heath, who is the all-time leading scorer in San Diego State history. He's also the school's all-time leader in steals and 3-pointers made, and comes in third all time in assists. He played in France last year and seems to have as much upside as anyone. But that doesn't mean you should be drafting him this year. Memphis Grizzlies Marc Gasol may start at center for the Grizzlies this season and will be worth a late fantasy pick as a backup C. There's been a ton of talk about Marko Jaric and Darko Milicic going to the Knicks for Zach Randolph, but the trade makes little sense for the Grizz, who are in the midst of a youth movement. I have no idea what Antoine Walker's role will be in Memphis, and adding Zach to that mix would make things even messier. Right now, Hakim Warrick looks golden to me, but that would change if Z-Bo comes over. Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are going to share time at point guard, while O.J. Mayo looks like the starting shooting guard. They also signed Hamed Haddadi, as the Grizzlies now look more culturally diverse than the Raptors with Darko, Marko, Gasol and Haddadi. Miami Heat Rookie Mario Chalmers and Memphis' Darrell Arthur both somehow escaped a suspension, but were fined $20,000 for their weed/chicks antics at NBA orientation. Chalmers had a chance to start at point guard and could still end up with the job at some point, but it looks like Chris Quinn is the favorite now. Of course, he still has to accept the Heat's contract offer before that becomes official. As Greg Cote of the Miami Herald told me recently, "There's not a snowflake's chance in Hell" that Marcus Banks will start at point guard on opening night. That's a pretty strong take, but chances are that he's right. The Heat quietly signed Jamaal Magloire this summer. He initially looked like nothing more than a back up center, but he could win the starting job with a strong camp – Mark Blount fans beware. Udonis Haslem has been pegged as the starting power forward by most folks, but I still think Michael Beasley is going to be thrown into the fire sooner than later. As I've already said, Dwyane Wade is BACK! He should be targeted at No. 5 in fantasy drafts, and could be taken higher if you think he'll stay healthy this season. I projected him at 74 games, 26.8 ppg, 7.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game this season, putting him just behind Kobe in the shooting guard rankings. As for Shawn Marion, he should still be a solid fantasy player, but I'm not sure he's still in the elite category in Miami. I could be wrong, but the days of using a Top 6 or 7 pick on him could be over. I'll be back soon with notes on the second half of the league. I haven't had any mock drafts yet, but they're coming later in the month. I'll break them down once the results are in. |
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| | #4 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| News and Notes: Part 2 The NBA Draft Guide is now available here! We put some blood, sweat and tears into it and it's a big package. It will be updated and tweaked continuously. Enjoy. Here is Part 2 of the News and Notes column. Part one was posted last week and is here if you missed it. Milwaukee Bucks The Bucks starting five should be Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut. That's a pretty formidable crew and it should be interesting to see if Redd can still score more than 20 ppg this year (I say he will, but barely). Villanueva seems primed for a breakout season, while we're not counting on Ridnour putting up outrageous numbers, but he should be a serviceable No. 2 point guard. Chemistry is probably the biggest question with the Bucks, as Redd is going to have to share the spotlight with RJ. And Bogut should be a very reliable No. 1 fantasy center. Minnesota Timberwolves The T-Wolves are still in rebuilding mode, but owner Glen Taylor says he's ready to win now. Randy Foye will have a large part to play in making that happen and should be ready to pickup where he left off last season. Many people are targeting Sebastian Telfair for big things this year, but I just don't see it as long as Foye is healthy. Mike Miller is in Minnesota now, which is going to hurt Rashad McCants, while Ryan Gomes should be the small forward. Al Jefferson suffered a knee injury last week but should be ready for the start of the season. Jefferson played in all 82 games last season, but that may have been a fluke, as his previous high was 71 games in four seasons...Just something to keep in mind. Kevin Love should start at center and be one of the better fantasy rookies out there. New Jersey Nets A very popular thing to do right now is to bag on the Nets and predict a collapse from Vince Carter and company. And while Nets supporters like to point out that Vinsanity has missed just nine games in the last three seasons, he's not playing for a contract and has Devin Harris and Bobby Simmons as running mates instead of Jason Kidd and RJ. I'm just saying…If there was a year for Vince to pout, suffer from nagging injuries and play at half speed, this is it. Simmons is a sleeper if he can stay healthy and Harris is going to be a very solid No. 1 point guard, while the Nets are as unstable as ever up front. Yi Jianlian will start at PF and Josh Boone and Brook Lopez will split minutes in the middle. My guess is Harris ends up being the most valuable fantasy player on this team, while Carter should still be solid despite the lack of love. New Orleans Hornets There's not much to say about the Hornets. The starting lineup should be the same from last year, although SG Morris Peterson is bound to lose the job at some point. James Posey will start out coming off the bench, while Devin Brown is my sleeper pick to eventually end up starting at shooting guard. Brown is also going to back up Chris Paul at point guard and should have some decent value this season. Julian Wright is also a sleeper here, but it would take an injury to Peja Stojakovic to make it happen. New York Knicks So much for Darko Milicic's 99% chance of playing in New York this season. My guess is the Grizzlies' players (Marko Jaric and Darko) were fired up about the chance to get out of Memphis, while the Grizzlies could never figure out how trading for Zach Randolph could help their team. So if you haven't figured it out by now, the deal that would send Randolph to Memphis is dead. The starting five appears to be Chris Duhon, Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson/Wilson Chandler, Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry. The Knicks are still trying to move Randolph and Curry, but until they do, they are probably the starters. And obviously, this is bad news for David Lee. Danilo Gallinari's back continues to be a story and there are conflicting reports about how healthy he is. I don't really care how healthy Gallo is; he's not going to be on any of my fantasy teams. Orlando Magic The Magic have a stout starting five which means it's going to be tough for Mickael Pietrus to emerge as a fantasy stud in that lineup. There will only be so many shots to go around and Pietrus is going to be near the bottom of the food chain behind Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson. Pietrus is probably worth a pick, but don't expect too much. Oklahoma City Thunder It seems the fantasy world either loves or hates Earl Watson right now. I'm kind of feeling him, but there's no denying that he's being stalked by Russell Westbrook. But until further notice, Watson is the starter and will be the guy pulling the strings for Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox and whoever they start at center. My money is on Nick Collison, but it depends on how healthy all the young centers on the roster are. Durant is going to be a monster this year, Green should be a super value pick and Watson should be worth playing as a No. 1 point guard. I don't trust Wilcox and think Collison will end up being more valuable this year. Philadelphia 76ers The Sixers are suddenly a favorite to compete for an East title with Elton Brand in the house. Andre Iguodala signed a fat new contract, Andre Miller is back to run the offense, Thaddeus Young is on everyone's breakout list and Samuel Dalembert is back in the middle. The Sixers are super thin at center, so they'll need Sammy D to stay healthy. Jason Smith's season is lost to ACL surgery, so Theo Ratliff is really the only back up for Dalembert. Then again, Reggie Evans is also there, while they could shift the lineup around and play Brand there if they had to. Phoenix Suns I am still predicting that Matt Barnes will start over Grant Hill this season, although that's not official. The Suns have so many options at SG/SF that anything is possible, but I like Barnes this year. Goran Dragic is still not with the team, but will be soon as his buyout is still being finalized. Dragic is another sleeper since the Suns are planning on playing him a lot at point guard while Steve Nash rests. The fantasy world is down on Nash this year, and I'm right there with them, but he's still Steve Nash and will (obviously) be a top fantasy point guard again. So be careful about how much you read into the negative outlooks on Nash. Portland Trailblazers Greg Oden is still not fully recovered from knee surgery, but the Blazers are absolutely giddy about how good he looks thus far. The Blazers are suddenly one of the deepest teams in the league, which is probably going to take a toll on most of its players from a fantasy standpoint. Rudy Fernandez may present the biggest problem, as he's going to end up eating the minutes of more proven players. Martell Webster isn't likely to have much value this season, despite the fact he should start for the Blazers, while bench players like Rudy and Travis Outlaw could offer a lot of value. I'm really interested to see this team in training camp and the preseason, as there are more questions than answers. Sacramento Kings Brad Miller is suspended for the first five games, Ron Artest is in Houston and Kevin Martin says he's ready to lead the Kings this year. I think John Salmons will be the starting small forward, while Beno Udrih is going to be a worthy fantasy point guard. Just beware that he has some pretty big injury concerns, so you'll want to make sure you have a back up plan in place if and when Beno goes down. Spencer Hawes will play center for the first five games and should be a solid No. 2 or 3 fantasy center this year. I also like rookie Jason Thompson, who could emerge with some second-half value playing behind Mikki Moore. San Antonio Spurs Manu Ginobili is out indefinitely after foot surgery so either Ime Udoka or Michael Finley will have to step up in his place. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are what they are, while the Spurs' starting center isn't likely to offer much value, whether it's Fabricio Oberto or Kurt Thomas. Toronto Raptors Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh will tag-team on the front line for the Raptors this year, at least for as long as both of them are standing. Both players have some injury concerns, but when comparing Bosh to O'Neal, Bosh is a picture of health. Jose Calderon is the starting point guard this season and continues to climb up my personal cheat sheets, while Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon will round out the starting five. Feel free to draft Andrea Bargnani this season, but don't count on anything. If you're able to actually use him, or if he breaks out, consider it a bonus. Utah Jazz As usual, it's all about Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko again this year. Ronnie Brewer is the shooting guard, and will be worth a late-round pick, but isn't going to score a lot. While Williams is under contract, the team could be broken up next summer with Boozer and Kirilenko possibly opting out of their contracts. Washington Wizards Unless you live in a cave, you've heard about Gilbert Arenas' knee surgery – his third in the last year and a half. Arenas has surely lost a step by now and may never be the same. I'm guessing he'll be a shell of his former self going forward. And as for his return this season, I'm thinking we might see him playing 30 minutes per game by the end of January. I don't have time to wait for him, so Arenas will not be on my fantasy teams this season unless he's sitting there very late. DeShawn Stevenson and Antonio Daniels get a value boost with the news, but keep in mind that they weren't all that great in his absence last season. |
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| | #5 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| News and Notes: Part 2 The NBA Draft Guide is now available here! We put some blood, sweat and tears into it and it's a big package. It will be updated and tweaked continuously. Enjoy. Here is Part 2 of the News and Notes column. Part one was posted last week and is here if you missed it. Milwaukee Bucks The Bucks starting five should be Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut. That's a pretty formidable crew and it should be interesting to see if Redd can still score more than 20 ppg this year (I say he will, but barely). Villanueva seems primed for a breakout season, while we're not counting on Ridnour putting up outrageous numbers, but he should be a serviceable No. 2 point guard. Chemistry is probably the biggest question with the Bucks, as Redd is going to have to share the spotlight with RJ. And Bogut should be a very reliable No. 1 fantasy center. Minnesota Timberwolves The T-Wolves are still in rebuilding mode, but owner Glen Taylor says he's ready to win now. Randy Foye will have a large part to play in making that happen and should be ready to pickup where he left off last season. Many people are targeting Sebastian Telfair for big things this year, but I just don't see it as long as Foye is healthy. Mike Miller is in Minnesota now, which is going to hurt Rashad McCants, while Ryan Gomes should be the small forward. Al Jefferson suffered a knee injury last week but should be ready for the start of the season. Jefferson played in all 82 games last season, but that may have been a fluke, as his previous high was 71 games in four seasons...Just something to keep in mind. Kevin Love should start at center and be one of the better fantasy rookies out there. New Jersey Nets A very popular thing to do right now is to bag on the Nets and predict a collapse from Vince Carter and company. And while Nets supporters like to point out that Vinsanity has missed just nine games in the last three seasons, he's not playing for a contract and has Devin Harris and Bobby Simmons as running mates instead of Jason Kidd and RJ. I'm just saying…If there was a year for Vince to pout, suffer from nagging injuries and play at half speed, this is it. Simmons is a sleeper if he can stay healthy and Harris is going to be a very solid No. 1 point guard, while the Nets are as unstable as ever up front. Yi Jianlian will start at PF and Josh Boone and Brook Lopez will split minutes in the middle. My guess is Harris ends up being the most valuable fantasy player on this team, while Carter should still be solid despite the lack of love. New Orleans Hornets There's not much to say about the Hornets. The starting lineup should be the same from last year, although SG Morris Peterson is bound to lose the job at some point. James Posey will start out coming off the bench, while Devin Brown is my sleeper pick to eventually end up starting at shooting guard. Brown is also going to back up Chris Paul at point guard and should have some decent value this season. Julian Wright is also a sleeper here, but it would take an injury to Peja Stojakovic to make it happen. New York Knicks So much for Darko Milicic's 99% chance of playing in New York this season. My guess is the Grizzlies' players (Marko Jaric and Darko) were fired up about the chance to get out of Memphis, while the Grizzlies could never figure out how trading for Zach Randolph could help their team. So if you haven't figured it out by now, the deal that would send Randolph to Memphis is dead. The starting five appears to be Chris Duhon, Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson/Wilson Chandler, Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry. The Knicks are still trying to move Randolph and Curry, but until they do, they are probably the starters. And obviously, this is bad news for David Lee. Danilo Gallinari's back continues to be a story and there are conflicting reports about how healthy he is. I don't really care how healthy Gallo is; he's not going to be on any of my fantasy teams. Orlando Magic The Magic have a stout starting five which means it's going to be tough for Mickael Pietrus to emerge as a fantasy stud in that lineup. There will only be so many shots to go around and Pietrus is going to be near the bottom of the food chain behind Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson. Pietrus is probably worth a pick, but don't expect too much. Oklahoma City Thunder It seems the fantasy world either loves or hates Earl Watson right now. I'm kind of feeling him, but there's no denying that he's being stalked by Russell Westbrook. But until further notice, Watson is the starter and will be the guy pulling the strings for Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox and whoever they start at center. My money is on Nick Collison, but it depends on how healthy all the young centers on the roster are. Durant is going to be a monster this year, Green should be a super value pick and Watson should be worth playing as a No. 1 point guard. I don't trust Wilcox and think Collison will end up being more valuable this year. Philadelphia 76ers The Sixers are suddenly a favorite to compete for an East title with Elton Brand in the house. Andre Iguodala signed a fat new contract, Andre Miller is back to run the offense, Thaddeus Young is on everyone's breakout list and Samuel Dalembert is back in the middle. The Sixers are super thin at center, so they'll need Sammy D to stay healthy. Jason Smith's season is lost to ACL surgery, so Theo Ratliff is really the only back up for Dalembert. Then again, Reggie Evans is also there, while they could shift the lineup around and play Brand there if they had to. Phoenix Suns I am still predicting that Matt Barnes will start over Grant Hill this season, although that's not official. The Suns have so many options at SG/SF that anything is possible, but I like Barnes this year. Goran Dragic is still not with the team, but will be soon as his buyout is still being finalized. Dragic is another sleeper since the Suns are planning on playing him a lot at point guard while Steve Nash rests. The fantasy world is down on Nash this year, and I'm right there with them, but he's still Steve Nash and will (obviously) be a top fantasy point guard again. So be careful about how much you read into the negative outlooks on Nash. Portland Trailblazers Greg Oden is still not fully recovered from knee surgery, but the Blazers are absolutely giddy about how good he looks thus far. The Blazers are suddenly one of the deepest teams in the league, which is probably going to take a toll on most of its players from a fantasy standpoint. Rudy Fernandez may present the biggest problem, as he's going to end up eating the minutes of more proven players. Martell Webster isn't likely to have much value this season, despite the fact he should start for the Blazers, while bench players like Rudy and Travis Outlaw could offer a lot of value. I'm really interested to see this team in training camp and the preseason, as there are more questions than answers. Sacramento Kings www.sacramentokings.ws Brad Miller is suspended for the first five games, Ron Artest is in Houston and Kevin Martin says he's ready to lead the Kings this year. I think John Salmons will be the starting small forward, while Beno Udrih is going to be a worthy fantasy point guard. Just beware that he has some pretty big injury concerns, so you'll want to make sure you have a back up plan in place if and when Beno goes down. Spencer Hawes will play center for the first five games and should be a solid No. 2 or 3 fantasy center this year. I also like rookie Jason Thompson, who could emerge with some second-half value playing behind Mikki Moore. San Antonio Spurs Manu Ginobili is out indefinitely after foot surgery so either Ime Udoka or Michael Finley will have to step up in his place. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are what they are, while the Spurs' starting center isn't likely to offer much value, whether it's Fabricio Oberto or Kurt Thomas. Toronto Raptors Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh will tag-team on the front line for the Raptors this year, at least for as long as both of them are standing. Both players have some injury concerns, but when comparing Bosh to O'Neal, Bosh is a picture of health. Jose Calderon is the starting point guard this season and continues to climb up my personal cheat sheets, while Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon will round out the starting five. Feel free to draft Andrea Bargnani this season, but don't count on anything. If you're able to actually use him, or if he breaks out, consider it a bonus. Utah Jazz www.utahjazz.ws As usual, it's all about Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko again this year. Ronnie Brewer is the shooting guard, and will be worth a late-round pick, but isn't going to score a lot. While Williams is under contract, the team could be broken up next summer with Boozer and Kirilenko possibly opting out of their contracts. Washington Wizards Unless you live in a cave, you've heard about Gilbert Arenas' knee surgery – his third in the last year and a half. Arenas has surely lost a step by now and may never be the same. I'm guessing he'll be a shell of his former self going forward. And as for his return this season, I'm thinking we might see him playing 30 minutes per game by the end of January. I don't have time to wait for him, so Arenas will not be on my fantasy teams this season unless he's sitting there very late. DeShawn Stevenson and Antonio Daniels get a value boost with the news, but keep in mind that they weren't all that great in his absence last season. |
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| | #6 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Training Camp Notes Here are some of the stories floating around the NBA after training camps started earlier this week. Preseason games get going this weekend, so cross your fingers that your favorites stay healthy. Atlanta Hawks Marvin Williams' 3-point shooting is living up to the early hype and coach Mike Woodson says he expects Marvin to score about 18 ppg. We've been calling him a sleeper for awhile now and nothing has changed. I also think Mike Bibby is primed for big things because he's finally healthy again. He was never 100 percent last year. Maurice Evans will be the first man off the bench and should fill the role filled by Josh Childress last season. Sleeper alert on Evans. Boston Celtics www.bostonceltics.ws Kendrick Perkins' shoulder is not near 100 percent and I've got some concerns about him being able to play night after night this season. Patrick O'Bryant is his back up and is at least worth keeping an eye on as the season approaches. Darius Miles continues his comeback bid but will start the season on the suspended list - 10 games for violating the drug policy. Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown is serious about starting Sean May at PF and I actually took him late in a deep draft recently. I don't expect him to stay healthy, but he should be a solid value pick if he can somehow pull it off. That means Emeka Okafor is expected to play center every night and exclusively, while Gerald Wallace will play SF exclusively. Larry has been impressed with Wallace thus far, but I'm concerned that he will sour on the injury-prone freak once Wallace starts taking too many gambles on defense. Brown also appears to like D.J. Augustin and says he's a legit 3-point threat, but Felton is still the starting point guard as of today. Chicago Bulls Joakim Noah will miss about the next week with an eye injury and Ben Gordon finally accepted the one-year qualifying offer he said he would not accept. But Gordon and the Bulls appear to have kissed and made up, and I'm expecting good things from BG this year. Andres Nocioni has fallen to the point of not even being draft worthy at this point, at least in the ones I've participated in. And no one has told us yet how Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich will co-exist this season. Cleveland Cavaliers Not much news coming out of Cleveland thus far. The shooting guard job is still up for grabs and both Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West have been going very late, if at all in my drafts. Dallas Mavericks www.dallasmavericks.ws Rick Carlisle swears that Jason Kidd is going to be back and better than ever, and I kinda believe him. Jerry Stackhouse might start, but he's still not worth drafting in most leagues. Erick Dampier should be useless with DeSagana Diop in the house and Josh Howard apologized for his lack of love for the Star Spangled Banner. Denver Nuggets Peter Vescey says Jamaal Tinsley has been traded to the Nuggets for Chucky Atkins and Steven Hunter, while everyone else says the trade is not happening. I think I'll take "everyone else" on this one. Atkins is out indefinitely after right knee surgery, meaning Anthony Carter will go unchallenged at point guard. Allen Iverson could be traded this season by the February deadline. George Karl and the players are saying their defense is going to be fine, but they're kidding themselves. Nene has looked really good early, but I'll be shocked if he's still healthy by the time Christmas rolls around. Chris Andersen will back up Nene, but could find himself starting sooner than later. Detroit Pistons Amir Johnson looks like the starter at PF and his upside is endless. I am going to try to land him in the last round of my upcoming drafts. Meanwhile, Rodney Stuckey is the team's "sixth starter" and also worthy of a late fantasy pick. Antonio McDyess will come off the bench, but I'm not sure where Stuckey's extra minutes are going to come from. Golden State Warriors Every year at this time Don Nelson says something that sends me through the roof. This year it's that C.J. Watson is his starting point guard. I don't buy it for a second, although Marcus Williams has reportedly looked "slow" in camp. Nellie is also talking about playing Stephen Jackson at point guard, but the guy clearly isn't a point guard. Until I see it with my own eyes, Williams is the starting point guard as far as I'm concerned. Andris Biedrins is your center, with Ronny Turiaf backing him up. Nellie says Turiaf won't play forward this year, but will exclusively back up Biedrins. We'll see. Nellie also says that Al Harrington won't play center this year and will be the full-time PF. This is good news for Harrington and I am a fan of drafting both Harrington and Jackson this year. Houston Rockets Carl Landry is back and looks great in camp, but the same can't be said about Tracy McGrady. T-Mac says he needs shoulder surgery and that his knee is still not right. Maybe he's going the Sarah Palin route and lowering expectations so far that he can't help but exceed them, but I have no interest in owning him this year. All is quiet on the Ron Artest front, but Shane Battier is out with an ankle injury and lost his job to Artest. Avoid Battier in your draft. As for Landry, he'll come off the bench behind Luis Scola, but appears to have patched up things with the Rockets after a rocky summer. Yao Ming says he's fully recovered from his leg injury and is ready to go. We'll see if he can avoid more leg problems for the first time in four seasons. Indiana Pacers www.indianapacers.ws Travis Diener has a bad foot and is out indefinitely, leaving all point guard duties up to T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack. Jack is going to see minutes at both guard spots and should be treated as a late-round sleeper. Los Angeles Clippers Marcus Camby has missed some time with the flu but should be the starting power forward for LA this year. Eric Gordon will miss a couple weeks with a high ankle sprain and that's going to set him back going into the season. I have been down on Cuttino Mobley, but chances are he'll get off to a quick start this season. In addition, Tim Thomas has looked impressive thus far, according to Mike Dunleavy, but I still would not waste a draft pick on Thomas just yet. Los Angeles Lakers Lamar Odom has been the early story of training camp. Phil Jackson says he's out of shape and not ready to play, while also contemplating bringing him off the bench behind Trevor Ariza. Regardless of what happens (and Odom certainly could still start at SF), Odom is going to take a hit this season. Andrew Bynum is bulked up and wants to be an all-star. Bynum has packed on the muscle and should be ready for a big season if his knee doesn't cause him more problems this year. Memphis Grizzlies Marc Gasol has the inside edge on starting at center and has been going in the later rounds of my drafts, while Darko Milicic is being ignored. I'm not a big fan of drafting Darko at this point, but he could end up being a surprise (as usual). Darko is also recovering from an Achilles injury. O.J. Mayo is going to get a ton of minutes as a rookie and coach Marc Iavaroni has said that Mayo and Rudy Gay will both have the green light from downtown. I took Mayo in the eighth round recently and don't feel too bad about it. But I like him more in the ninth or 10th. Hakim Warrick has also been draining threes in scrimmages and could take a step to the next level this season. Miami Heat The Heat signed Shaun Livingston Friday to a two-year deal. I really don't expect him to play much, if at all this season, but there's a chance he could be effective next year. While I think it's a great story and I'm happy for Livingston, the guy was so injury prone prior to his knee exploding a couple years ago, it's hard to imagine him staying healthy enough to be a fantasy factor again. We'll see. Udonis Haslem (foot) and Michael Beasley (groin) have fought off injuries in camp and both are back in action. Chris Quinn is the favorite to start at point guard, while Mark Blount and Jamaal Magloire are battling things out for the starting center job. Center Joel Anthony has been very impressive in camp, so don't be shocked to see him in the rotation this season. Dwyane Wade is currently absent from camp while dealing with his divorce proceedings. I'll be back on Monday with the second half of the league. Enjoy the weekend. |
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| | #7 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Training Camp Notes: Part 2 Here is Part 2 of Training Camp Notes. Preseason games are underway and we are updating NBA news 24/7 right now as you prepare for your drafts. If you missed Part 1, it's here. Click here to buy the 2008 Rotoworld Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Milwaukee Bucks Andrew Bogut appears to be over his ankle injury and should be primed for a big season. I still like Charlie Villanueva as a sleeper at power forward and Luke Ridnour, their starting point guard, is lasting until the final rounds of most drafts. There is some chatter about Malik Allen possibly starting at PF this season, but even if it happens, CV will be the guy getting starter's minutes. Minnesota Timberwolves Kevin Love has "love handles," but should start the season at center. Randy Foye is your point guard (as long as he's healthy), Mike Miller is at shooting guard, Ryan Gomes is at SF and Al Jefferson is the power forward. He's set to return to action despite a knee injury and will wear a protective brace for some time. At this point, Jefferson still looks worthy of a first- or second-round pick, but it also feels like he's due for some injury problems after playing in all 82 last year. New Jersey Nets Devin Harris is going to be a value pick this season and should be worthy of being a No. 1 fantasy point guard. Vince Carter is saying all the right things about being ready despite the obvious rebuilding taking place in Jersey, but I'm still not convinced he believes it. Bobby Simmons sounds fairly healthy and could really emerge as a super sleeper this season, while Yi Jianlian will be feeling the pressure of trying to prove to his doubters that he's not a bust. I like Brook Lopez at center, but my guess is he will split time with Josh Boone, making both of them tough to start every week. And Sean Williams has reportedly looked fantastic in camp and the team seems to be excited about getting him out there in game situations. As usual, put him on your sleeper list, but don't be too surprised if he ends up being a bust. New Orleans Hornets The starting five is set for New Orleans except that I see no way Byron Scott will be as patient with Morris Peterson this season as he was last year. Mo Pete got things started off with a 1-for-7 shooting performance in Sunday's preseason win and with Mike James and Devin Brown on the bench, it could just be a matter of time before he's yanked out of there. Speaking of Brown, he's probably my favorite "deep sleeper" this season and I think he's going to get a lot of minutes at both guard positions. He's not draftworthy, but my guess is he'll be picked up in most leagues at some point before December gets here. He'll fill Jannero Pargo's role this season. Tyson Chandler suffered a sprained ankle last night, but it sounds like he's fine. New York Knicks Eddy Curry is out of the hospital and back at practice, telling NBA TV cameras that he thinks he'll be the starting center on opening night. In my estimation, he might be the only person in the Garden – no, in New York – who believes that. He's way out of shape and can't possibly run in Mike D'Antoni's system. David Lee looks like the starting center, Zach Randolph at PF and Wilson Chandler and Quentin Richardson will battle it out at SF. Q-Rich has looked good in camp and is healthy for the first time in forever. Like Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury still thinks he's a starting point guard, but it really sounds like Chris Duhon will be the opening-night starter. Marbury will likely be the first man off the bench until he gets traded, but anyone who has seen him thus far says he's easily in the best shape of his career and is still the best player on the team. Sounds kind of like the opposite can be said for Danilo Gallinari. Jared Jeffries was somehow penciled in as the Knicks' starting center before breaking his leg, yet I still don't understand that one. Orlando Magic The Magic host my Hawks tonight and we'll get our first look (or should I say "read," as there's no TV) at Mickael Pietrus in Orlando. Not much going on in O-Town, other than Dwight Howard saying that he's going to shoot more and dunk less, which could result in a small drop in field goal percentage. Oklahoma City Thunder Kevin Durant and Jeff Green should blow up this season. I still like Earl Watson to win the starting point guard job, at least for the first half of the season. But Russell Westbrook is worth a last-round fantasy pick in case P.J. Carlesimo decides to forget about winning games and just goes with youth from the beginning. Nick Collison is a super-sleeper at center and Chris Wilcox also qualifies at PF. You don't want to own any Sonics bigs outside of these two guys. Philadelphia 76ers Samuel Dalembert says he's going to be an all-star this year and it's not that farfetched an idea. He does play in the East where he'll be competing with a guy like Emeka Okafor for the honors. Dwight Howard's a given, but it's wide open after that. Sammy also suffered a shoulder injury recently and is day-to-day. There's not much guess work left in Philly, although Thaddeus Young didn't start out with the first five initially. Kareem Rush got a couple early runs with the first unit, but you have to think Young's the guy here. And while I don't know if Sammy D and Elton Brand can co-exist, my guess is that they will both be about the same as usual. Andre Iguodala is going to be a top fantasy player again this season, and in my three drafts thus far he's been taken at No. 26, 30 and 31. Phoenix Suns Matt Barnes is one of my favorite sleepers this season and it really sounds like he will start in front of Grant Hill this season. He's looked great in camp and Terry Porter seems poised to be ready to give Barnes a big role on his team. Amare Stoudemire is out for a couple weeks with an eye injury that will probably cause him to wear goggles for the rest of his career. He should be ready by the start of the season. Steve Nash says he wants to play for four more seasons, but you can look for the decline to start happening some time in the next 12 months. I just posted a news blurb about Amare's brother being wanted by the police, but it really has nothing to do with fantasy hoops. Portland Trail Blazers I continue to be a little scared of the Blazers from a fantasy perspective. Too deep, too many good players, too few minutes to go around. But Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless are all probably going to have some value this season. All I'm saying is you may end up overpaying for a one or more of them if the stars don't align properly. Sacramento Kings The big battle here is between John Salmons and Francisco Garcia, although I haven't much about who is winning. My guess is Salmons will start simply because he will handle coming off the bench much worse than Garcia will. Beno Udrih is a popular point guard but beware of his injury history. And speaking of injury histories, Spencer Hawes has already had three knee operations and tried to get out of doing the team's conditioning test out of fear of tearing it up again. He made it through the test in one piece, but I'm a little worried about the knee holding up through the entire season. He should be good to go though, for those first five games when Brad Miller is suspended. Bobby Jackson is back home with the Kings and qualifies as a sleeper despite the fact that he's nearly as old as I am. San Antonio Spurs Manu Ginobili is going to be out for some time and I don't think you should consider taking him until about pick No. 80 in your draft. Personally, I'm avoiding him altogether, as I just don't have the kind of patience it takes to wait for guys with serious injuries and recovery times. Ime Udoka and Michael Finley are going to see a boost in his absence and both are pretty interesting sleeper candidates. Toronto Raptors I read something recently where a beat writer said he thought Jermaine O'Neal still looked a step slow, but I haven't seen or heard anything official on the subject. Personally, I'm staying away from O'Neal this season. He's only 30, but his legs are more like 45. I'm still on the Jose Calderon bandwagon and he's going early in the third round in fantasy drafts, while Jason Kapono could end up starting over Jamario Moon this season. Moon got to Toronto kind of late and it sounds like he might have lost his job in the process. However, there's still plenty of time before the season starts, so he could end up in the starting unit before this is over. Utah Jazz All is quiet in Utah. Kyrylo Fesenko is out of shape and Matt Harpring and Brevin Knight are fighting some injuries, but none of those players matter. It's all about Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko and Ronnie Brewer. AK-47 wasn't drafted until the 10th round in a recent expert draft, and that has steal written all over it. Washington Wizards Brendan Haywood is out currently with a wrist injury and Etan Thomas is ready to resume his career after heart surgery last year. Antonio Daniels will start as long as Gilbert Arenas is out, but you probably learned last year that doesn't guarantee fantasy success. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler should both be excellent fantasy players again this season, although we'll have to see if Butler can stay healthy. Name Droppers Are Us My Rock and Roll Fantasy Hoops League is about full and it should be fun. Some of the people you may have heard of who are playing include: Ben Bridwell – Band of Horses Bo Koster – My Morning Jacket Mark Smith – Explosions in the Sky Parker Gispert – The Whigs Joe Jurewicz – Dirty On Purpose In addition, Sergio Gonzalez from CBS is in, along with several other cool folks in the music industry. I thought I had a shot at getting Jeff Ament from Pearl Jam in, but still haven't heard back on that one. Sadly Stephen Malkmus isn't in (as of today), nor is his band mate Janet Weiss. But I still have this excerpt from a Malkmus interview to hang my hat on. Malkmus: In our band we have this NBA fantasy league. Joanna (Bolme) and Janet have the best teams. Q: Is it luck, or do they know what they're doing? Malkmus: They know what they're doing. We're kind of big fans of (fantasy-sports Web site) Rotoworld and this guy Steve Alexander. It's very geeky. Janet (Weiss) and I follow his advice generally. If you read that you can't go too wrong. I'm a huge Pavement and Malkmus fan and that surprising tidbit is still about my favorite thing I've ever discovered on the internet. And lastly, in the namedropping department, Ike Hilliard, wide receiver for the Bucs, dropped this gem into an interview over the weekend: Q: A weekly question: What Web site do you visit the most? Hilliard: Rotoworld.com, because I like to see what's going on in fantasy basketball. That's usually the first page that I go to once I see what's going on in the world. Fantasy basketball is my thing. I'm big on that. I even get the (cable package). I'm a big NBA guy. Thanks, Ike. Me too! And if you are reading this and want some Rock and Roll league action, just hit me with an email. NFL stars are certainly close enough to rock stars and we'd be honored to have you join in the fun. Lastly, my brain is broken and I often confuse Rudy Gay, Rudy Fernandez, Al Thornton and Thaddeus Young. Ii also think I might have a similar problem with Brandon Roy and Gay...have no idea why, but my brain and fingers are not working in tandem. Please for give me for the occasionaly goof in advance. |
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| | #8 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| We Live Basketball We know you do as well, or you wouldn't have stayed up all night watching Olympic hoops from Beijing, or you wouldn't be finding yourself mesmerized by preseason games on NBA TV, or following the Stephon Marbury situation on a daily basis. Rotoworld's Draft Guide has all the information, tools, and answers you need on tough questions, like why Amir Johnson and David Lee will likely start for the Pistons and Knicks. In our guide you'll learn how the rest of Fantasy Nation is too concerned with "the demise of Jason Kidd." While Kidd does come with some risk risk, our Average Draft Position information indicates that he is going later than he should. Drafts are all about value, and the potential reward by taking Kidd in the fourth round outweighs the risk posed by him not scoring many points this season. He's still Jason Kidd and he's still going to rack up fantasy production – especially after getting an entire training camp and preseason under his belt with his new team. You'll get helpful tips like these throughout the guide. www.dallasmavericks.ws Constantly updated rankings and Projections Player value is not static, so your draft guide shouldn't be either. If an injury happens, our rankings and projections will reflect the change. If a player climbs the depth chart, he is likely to climb our projections as well. It is really starting to look like David Lee may start at center for the Knicks. We went ahead and adjusted our rankings accordingly, moving Eddy Curry down (not that there was much farther to drop him) and Lee up. In addition, as more and more information about injuries to Monta Ellis, Gilbert Arenas and Manu Ginobili emerge, the farther they fall down our list. So many owners fail at fantasy basketball because they go to a draft with stale cheat sheets. In two days since the start of training camps, players like Maurice Evans, Wilson Chandler, Sean May, Trevor Ariza, Matt Barnes, Russell Westbrook and Dominic McGuire have all seen a positive change in value. Over 375 players are ranked, projected, and profiled. Customized Cheats Sheets There are almost as many fantasy hoops scoring systems as there are fantasy hoops leagues. And if you are using a cheat sheet that isn't tailored to your specific league, you are selling yourself short. Use your scoring system and our customizable projections to create easy-to-print cheat sheets for your league. Our Exclusive Tiering System We will give you hundreds of pages of profiles, columns, and statistics, but our Tiering System may be all you need to take with you to your draft. Each draft is different, and our tiering system gives owners flexible strategies to win at every position. Tiers recognize that it's not just who you take, but getting value when you take them, and who might be available with your later picks. The Deepest Content Where do we start? Beyond our in-depth player and team profiles, we have columns on the fantasy impact of all the offseason changes, free agent moves, sleepers, busts, injuries, rookies, and Mock Drafts you can handle. We even have a schedule breakdown column for those of you in weekly transaction leagues, as well as expert advice (and humor) provided by beat writers and television analysts around the NBA. Like the projections, all the content is ever-changing and will be updated until the season starts. Quality Is Job One Fantasy basketball is not a second job for us. Our primary hoops writers cover the sport year-round, giving a depth of quality. There is no crash course before each season as our "experts" catch up with what's happening. We've been following every story, every day. We love basketball It sounds simple enough. Of course we love basketball, and specifically fantasy basketball. Who doesn't? But a lot of websites seem to love being "experts" or selling their games more than creating content. Loving basketball keeps us posting news updates well after the West Coast games end around 2 AM. In fact, we're not even sure when we sleep. Loving hoops keeps us digging for the nugget on a third-string center (Hamed Haddadi, anyone?) that could turn your season around. Loving basketball keeps us humble with the knowledge that we'll never have all the answers, so we better keep looking for the truth behind the headlines. That's why we continue to be the most trafficked and completely free fantasy news site on the web. That in-depth and timely news helps inform every page of the draft guide. Click to go to the Fantasy Basketball Home Page Click to go buy the Rotoworld.com 2008 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide |
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| | #9 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Preseason Burning Questions Those of us who inhabit everyday society in the grown-up world spend much of our time pondering life's difficult, and often unanswerable questions. For instance: If there are debates before the presidential election, why aren't there debates between opposing head coaches before important playoff series to help indecisive viewers decide who they want to root for? Why is the tradition of "bringing snack" not upheld for soccer matches played by adults? And is it appropriate to wear a suit of chain mail and wield a battle ax at the company Halloween party? In the world of fantasy basketball, questions of a less abstract but equally important nature fill the air at this time of year. And as the season opener draws nearer by the day, here's a look at five critical, but as of yet unanswered questions from NBA training camps: We're ramping up the coverage here at Rotoworld.com and Steve Alexander will be posting the results of industry-league mock drafts on Thursday and Monday. In addition, the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is available right here. There are 375 player projections, two sets of continuously updated cheat sheets, customizable cheats, tiering strategy columns and much, much more. And it is constantly updated with our player news in order to stay current. In addition, we'll be offering an NBA Season Pass for the first time. Just click on any of the above links to check out all the action.Preseason Burning Questions 1. Is it worth investing in this year's rookies? The short answer: Yes, but as the knight advised in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, if you must choose – choose wisely. The long answer: Last year, Al Thornton (16.3 ppg in 8 preseason games) and Corey Brewer (27 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks on October 20, 2007) drove up their draft positions with formidable training camp performances, only to play limited minutes early in the season, sending invested fantasy owners into a remote control-annihilating fury. The lesson here is that leaning heavily on a rookie (or rookies) can be a deeply frustrating endeavor, not unlike coaching a youth football squad (in both instances, the kids don't always perform with the level of maturity you expect). For every Tim Duncan (21.1 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 2.5 bpg his rookie year in 1997-98), Kevin Durant (20.3 ppg last season) or LeBron James, there are two dozen Corey Brewers (5.8 ppg as a first-year pro). So if you do become tempted to go rookie hunting in the middle-to-late rounds, do yourself a favor and assume that whatever rookies you choose won't pan out, then be pleasantly surprised (or if you prefer, maniacally boastful) when they do. If you can't resist the suspense of relying on this year's rookies for stats, please make sure that the first one off the board is O.J. Mayo. The 20-year-old etched a training camp masterpiece on Monday against Indiana (26 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 6 three-pointers and 5 steals) and appears to have secured not only the starting two-guard gig in Memphis, but more importantly, the right to fire at will in Marc Iavaroni's offense. The impending accumulation of stats (tempered by what will no doubt be some ghastly shooting lines) makes Mayo something of an exception: a rookie who appears ready to produce some big-time lines immediately. The two others in that category are Greg Oden, who should quickly develop into a rebounding and shot-blocking force in Portland, and Michael Beasley, whose scoring touch will translate effectively to the pros. (If you are drafting Beasley, just understand that you're targeting him largely for points, rebounds and perhaps the occasional three, but you may not get much in the way of steals and blocks.) There are other rookies worth drafting (Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Rudy Fernandez and Russell Westbrook all warrant a flier in standard-sized leagues), but your emotional health will be significantly more stable if you regard them as high-upside options to monitor on your bench as opposed to linchpins of your starting lineup. 2. Whither Lamar Odom? The short answer: Though there would appear to be some cause for concern, there's plenty of reason to believe that the man known as "The Goods" will be just fine. The long answer: Hollywood, not surprisingly, has provided one of the most prominent preseason dramas this month, with Odom struggling early in training camp while Phil Jackson has toyed with the notion of bringing him off the bench. In a situation like this, it's important to disregard all the chatter and look at the bottom line. Despite all the concerns, Odom is perennially among the most versatile performers in fantasy basketball, and there's no reason to think that will change in 2008-09. During his four years as a Laker, Odom has averaged 15.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg and 4.4 apg, while adding close to a steal and a block per night. That's the kind of production that normally warrants a hefty price, but right now, Odom can be drafted at a discount. The fact is, coaches use the threat of coming off the bench as a motivational tool all the time, and Trevor Ariza – while no doubt someone the Lakers want to employ more this year – is ultimately not going to poach the better part of Odom's minutes. Even if Odom is coming off the bench at the start of the year, he should join the starting five before too long. Not only is he one of the four best players on a team with title aspirations; he also happens to be performing under the all-important motivational spotlight of a contract year. So instead of being deterred by the slightly negative buzz, use it to your advantage. While others are letting Odom drop a round or two in your draft because of what they see as his uncertain status, use some forward thinking to realize that in the long run, the panic will prove to be unwarranted. The best kind of risk to take is a move that others see as risky, but one that you know is actually a safe bet. Quietly draft Lamar Odom with confidence. 3. Will Russian submachine guns be in season this fall? The short answer: Yes, but they're not as fashionable as they once were. The long answer: Much like Odom, Andrei Kirilenko has seen his draft value drop this preseason amid speculation that he, too, may come off the bench. The key difference between Kirilenko and Odom is that Kirilenko's season-to-season performance has been somewhat volatile in recent years, particularly during a disastrous 2006-07 season that saw him average a career-low 8.3 ppg. He rebounded with a nice all-around line last year (11.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.2 spg and 1.5 bpg) but has not been a dominant fantasy force since 2005-06, and if he's coming off the bench for Jerry Sloan, his performance could suffer. Remember, this is a guy who famously wept about his role on the team during the 2006-07 playoffs. Not to say that having a good cry every now and then is severely detrimental to fantasy value, but at the same time, AK-47 clearly doesn't have the most rock-solid mental fortitude in the NBA. Some measure of concern is founded, but if you're the bargain-hunting type, there's plenty of reason to like this situation, because the opportunity is there to get an outstanding role player on the cheap. Don't draft him expecting a return to the glory days of 2005-06 (15.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 3.2 bpg), but if you're willing to make a small leap of faith and believe that this AK still has some ammunition left, you have an opportunity to secure an excellent and inexpensive supporting player for your squad. 4. Can Camby and the Caveman coexist? The short answer: Most likely. But if one of the two has trouble adapting, it will not surprisingly be the one whose name sounds like "Caveman" (Kaman). The long answer: Much has been made of the new pairing of big men in L.A., with concerned fantasy owners wondering whose stats (Marcus Camby's or Chris Kaman's) might be negatively impacted by Camby moving to L.A. On the offensive side, Camby's move to L.A. (and his move to power forward) shouldn't have a significant impact on either player. Camby neither shoots nor crowds the paint enough to adversely affect Kaman's post game. However, one area where the two players could negatively impact one another is on the glass. Each averaged a career-high in boards last year (Kaman with 12.7 and Camby with 13.1), and it's very difficult to see either of them reaching that number again, as there just aren't that many rebounds to go around. If you had to bet on who will lead the Clippers in rebounding, Camby seems like the safer choice, because while Kaman asserted himself like never before last year, he did so without Elton Brand sharing the paint. With Camby in the fray, it's easy to see Kaman playing a secondary role on the glass when both are in the game. As for blocks, it's not likely that a move to power forward will truly affect Camby's annual 3-block-per-game production, but if you're expecting 2.8 bpg from Kaman again this season, you probably should temper those expectations. Even though Cavemen are notoriously slow to evolve, this situation shouldn't be a disaster. Expect Camby's numbers to remain largely the same (aside from a slight dip in boards), while Kaman's numbers dip somewhat across the board. The downgrade for Kaman comes in part because of Camby, and in part because it's unrealistic to expect the oft-injured and somewhat flaky big man to replicate his enormous stats from last year. Kaman has clearly arrived as an elite fantasy center, but with a prominent power forward once again sharing the paint this year, expect something less than the 15.7 ppg, 12.7 rpg and 2.8 bpg he averaged in 2007-08. 5. And what of the point guard platoons? The short answer: Jump ship (or don't board the ship in the first place). The long answer: One of the definitive moments in the Academy Award-winning film Platoon comes when the soldier named King stabs himself in the knee as a means of extracting himself from the Vietnam War. Fantasy owners staring down the barrel of a point guard platoon should consider a similar course of action (that is, getting out of the situation by any means possible, not necessarily breaking out the bowie knife and plunging it into the kneecap). If you can't force yourself to stay away entirely, make sure not to lean heavily on a platoon situation like Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions in Milwaukee or Earl Watson and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, no matter how much you may like one of the players. Even if you remember Sessions' 20-point, 24-assist gem from last April and just know he'd have a breakout season if given 30-plus minutes a night, you can't ignore the reality of the situation: With Ridnour around, Sessions faces a very significant obstacle to get the minutes he needs. No question that in a vacuum, both players have fantasy value, but we're not in a vacuum – we're in Milwaukee (difficult to accept sometimes, I know). No matter who's named the starter, the backup figures to steal upwards of 20 minutes a night, thereby limiting his platoon mate's value. If you can't resist the intrigue of a Sessions or a Ridnour, just make sure you're drafting one of them as a contingency in the late rounds, and not a staple of your starting lineup. Anything beyond that would be shooting yourself in the foot (not to be confused, of course, with stabbing yourself in the knee). |
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| | #10 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Are You Mocking Me? Hello everyone! Here are the results and my commentary on a draft that was held on Tuesday, Oct. 14 in the Yahoo! Friends and Family league, run by my buddy Matt Buser and the folks at Yahoo! But first, if you haven't already, check out the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide right here. There are 375 player projections, two sets of continuously updated cheat sheets, customizable cheats, tiering strategy columns and much, much more. And it is constantly updated with our player news in order to stay current. In addition, we'll be offering the NBA Season Pass for the first time. Just click on any of the above links to check out all the action. This was a great draft and the owners in this league are a solid bunch of fantasy hoops guys. Just 13 rounds in the draft, starting PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UTIL, UTIL and three bench spots. The waiver wire is going to be hopping with good players. And given all my sleeper picks, I might be on the wire. But as of today, I'm quite pleased with my draft. Standard 9-category league, which means TOs are included. Enjoy. Round 1 1. Amare Stoudemire RotoWire - Liss 2. Chris Paul 82games.com 3. LeBron James RotoWire - Dre 4. Kobe Bryant RotoExperts 5. Dwyane Wade FBC- Jontom 6. Dirk Nowitzki RotoWire- Phan www.dallasmavericks.ws 7. Kevin Garnett Rotoworld Steve www.bostonceltics.ws 8. Elton Brand Y! - Romig 9. Shawn Marion Y! - Buser 10. Caron Butler Y! Brandon 11. Danny Granger RotoExperts 12. Deron Williams HoopsKLYCE.com www.utahjazz.ws Wow. I just noticed that Amare went No. 1 in this league, to Liss. That's the first time I've seen him going No. 1 and Liss must feel pretty strongly about Amare. We've been saying all along the Top 3 are interchangeable, but it's hard to argue with what Amare did last year, so I guess you can make that the Top 4. Let's just hope this isn't the year Stoudemire's knee needs a little "cleaning out." It may not be, but you have to think it's coming at some point in the next 24 months. Wade went higher than we have him, but if he stays healthy, it's a fine pick. I took Garnett, thinking that last year's 11 missed games were a fluke. I'm looking for at least 77 games out of KG this year. Granger has struggled in the preseason, but he should have a monster year and we have no problem with him going late in Round 1. Best Pick: Deron Williams at 12. Simply put, he's the second best point guard in the league, turnovers or not. Shadiest Pick: Dwyane Wade at 5 - Just because he's so injury prone, but certainly not a bad pick. Round 2 1. Josh Smith HoopsKLYCE.com 2. Allen Iverson RotoExperts 3. Chris Bosh Y! Brandon 4. Dwight Howard Y! - Buser 5. Pau Gasol Y! - Romig 6. Baron Davis Rotoworld Steve 7. Carlos Boozer RotoWire- Phan 8. Al Jefferson FBC- Jontom 9. Jose Calderon RotoExperts 10. Yao Ming RotoWire - Dre 11. Marcus Camby 82games.com 12. Steve Nash RotoWire - Liss As usual, Klyce pimping on my boys with Josh Smith. Oh well. Buser said 'TOs and FTP be damned' by grabbing Howard here. We'll see how that works out, as Howard is strictly a four-cat player and will hurt you (sometimes) as much as he helps. Everyone is high on Calderon, including Rotoworld, while people don't seem to be scared off by the teaming of Gasol and Andrew Bynum. And Dre wasn't scared enough by the Yao Ming injury history to let him slide into the third round. Camby is another big question mark here – Hasn't played in the preseason and may lose boards to Chris Kaman. We'll see. I took a shot at Baron Davis, who will be fighting off the Clippers' curse this season. When he plays and is healthy though, he's a dominant fantasy player. And I love Al Jefferson, but something tells me he's going to be hurt this year. Best Pick: Steve Nash at No. 24 overall – People are sleeping on him. Shadiest Pick: Dwight Howard – Not saying it's bad, but those FTs and TOs are a lot to overcome. Round 3 1. Kevin Martin RotoWire - Liss www.sacramentokings.ws 2. Rashard Lewis 82games.com 3. Tim Duncan RotoWire - Dre 4. Carmelo Anthony RotoExperts 5. Rudy Gay FBC- Jontom 6. Chauncey Billups RotoWire- Phan 7. Jason Richardson Rotoworld Steve 8. Paul Pierce Y! - Romig www.bostonceltics.ws 9. Andre Iguodala Y! - Buser 10. Jason Kidd Y! Brandon 11. Ron Artest RotoExperts 12. Kevin Durant HoopsKLYCE.com I'm hopeful that my arch nemesis, Larry Brown, doesn't screw with Richardson's minutes. But I'm not holding my breath. Love Durant, Kidd is undervalued, even in Round 3, while the rest of these picks are just solid. Best Pick: Carmelo Anthony – Someone has to make up for Camby's lost boards and Melo should score a ton of points this year, as well. Shadiest Pick: Ron Artest – Is he going to see the rock enough with T-Mac and Yao to contend with? Plus, is he going to starve dogs or hurt someone this year? Round 4 1. Joe Johnson HoopsKLYCE.com 2. David West RotoExperts 3. Antawn Jamison Y! Brandon 4. Andrew Bynum Y! - Buser 5. Brandon Roy Y! - Romig 6. Andrew Bogut Rotoworld Steve 7. Vince Carter RotoWire- Phan 8. Hedo Turkoglu FBC- Jontom 9. Rasheed Wallace RotoExperts 10. Michael Redd RotoWire - Dre 11. Mike Dunleavy 82games.com 12. Michael Beasley RotoWire - Liss I wanted and got Andrew Bogut here. Yoda says 'big year coming, there is.' Buser thinks Bynum's ready to blow up and Romig is thinking that Brandon Roy can hold off all the competition for minutes in Portland. I'll add that we're very frightened by Dunleavy's knee injury. He's not playing and I'm a little worried about his knee going forward. Best Pick: Antawn Jamison (sans Arenas), followed closely by Joe Johnson - There are major minutes coming for both guys. Shadiest Pick: Vince Carter and Michael Beasley - No guarantees on Beasley this early (Round 5 or 6 looks better), while the entire world seems to be predicting a VC meltdown by Christmas. We'll see. Round 5 1. LaMarcus Aldridge RotoWire - Liss 2. Andris Biedrins 82games.com 3. Ray Allen RotoWire - Dre 4. Chris Kaman RotoExperts 5. Gerald Wallace FBC- Jontom 6. Mo Williams RotoWire- Phan 7. Josh Howard Rotoworld Steve 8. Stephen Jackson Y! - Romig 9. Devin Harris Y! - Buser 10. Lamar Odom Y! Brandon 11. Mike Miller RotoExperts 12. Mike Bibby HoopsKLYCE.com There's Klyce again, stealing my guy in Bibby. I fretted between Jackson and Howard, but had Howard slightly higher in my rankings. Therefore I took the weed smoking, American flag hating Maverick. But make no mistake…Jackson will have a huge year for the Warriors. Aldridge has looked fantastic over the summer, but Portland is so dang deep. Best Pick: Gerald Wallace – Should have a rebirth under the hustle-happy Larry Brown, as long as he stays healthy and avoids concussions. Shadiest Pick: Lamar Odom – Sorry, Brandon. Odom coming off the bench and being on the trading block just scares me a little. Round 6 1. Al Horford HoopsKLYCE.com 2. David Lee RotoExperts 3. Jamal Crawford Y! Brandon 4. Andre Miller Y! - Buser 5. Greg Oden Y! - Romig 6. Richard Jefferson Rotoworld Steve 7. Mehmet Okur RotoWire- Phan 8. Tracy McGrady FBC- Jontom 9. Brad Miller RotoExperts 10. Corey Maggette RotoWire - Dre 11. Luol Deng 82games.com 12. Manu Ginobili RotoWire - Liss Damn you, Klyce. Again, he takes one of my hometown heroes and I would have gladly taken Horford here. Oden is consistently going in Rounds 5 or 6, while I was quite pleased with my RJ steal here. RotoExperts will have to hang on to Miller through a five-game suspension, while T-Mac is the ultimate injury risk. Best Pick: Luol Deng – The forgotten man in Chicago is the veteran face of the franchise and should be primed for a big year. Shadiest Pick: Manu Ginobili – I don't like having injured guys on my bench, especially when there are only three spots available. Round 7 1. John Salmons RotoWire - Liss 2. Jason Terry 82games.com 3. T.J. Ford RotoWire - Dre 4. Ben Gordon RotoExperts 5. Samuel Dalembert FBC- Jontom 6. Randy Foye RotoWire- Phan 7. Emeka Okafor Rotoworld Steve 8. Peja Stojakovic Y! - Romig 9. Tyson Chandler Y! - Buser 10. Andrei Kirilenko Y! Brandon 11. Jermaine O'Neal RotoExperts 12. Leandro Barbosa HoopsKLYCE.com Liss grabbed one of my favorite sleepers in Salmons, while the last good centers flew off the board in Dalembert, Okafor, Chandler and JO. I was happy to land Okafor here, as he should play Larry Brown's game and qualifies at both F and C. Kirilenko scares the heck outta me coming off the bench. Barbosa is also interesting since he's been in Brazil tending to his sick mother throughout training camp. Best Pick: Ben Gordon – Primed for a big contract year and has a coach he can stand playing for (and possibly has more experience than). Shadiest Pick: Jason Terry – Replaced in the starting five by Antoine Wright, but will probably continue to produce. I just don't care to find out and wouldn't draft him. Round 8 1. Al Harrington HoopsKLYCE.com 2. Troy Murphy RotoExperts 3. O.J. Mayo Y! Brandon 4. Kirk Hinrich Y! - Buser 5. Rajon Rondo Y! - Romig 6. Rodney Stuckey Rotoworld Steve 7. Francisco Garcia RotoWire- Phan 8. Tony Parker FBC- Jontom 9. Chris Quinn RotoExperts 10. Gilbert Arenas RotoWire - Dre 11. Richard Hamilton 82games.com 12. Monta Ellis RotoWire - Liss As usual, Klyce took my guy. Harrington should have a big year for the Warriors. Many of us reached here, including yours truly with the Stuckey pick. But…I would easily like to have a young stud, averaging proposed starter's minutes as opposed to Arenas and Ellis, who might not even play this year. And if they do, it will likely be on one leg. It's not like their games are predicated to speed or anything. Mayo is also interesting this early, but the minutes will be there and he can score. I also like the Harrington pick, as he should be a different player this time around. And then there's the shadiest pick… Best Pick: Al Harrington and Rodney Stuckey, hands down. Shadiest Pick: Chris Quinn – I don't know what RotoExperts' fascination with Quinn is, but when I find out, I'll let you know. Dare I say worst pick of the draft? Round 9 1. Mike Conley RotoWire - Liss 2. Zach Randolph 82games.com 3. Zydrunas Ilgauskas RotoWire - Dre 4. Charlie Villanueva RotoExperts 5. Kevin Love FBC- Jontom 6. Kenyon Martin RotoWire- Phan 7. Marvin Williams Rotoworld Steve 8. Al Thornton Y! - Romig 9. Nene Hilario Y! - Buser 10. Joakim Noah Y! Brandon 11. Raymond Felton RotoExperts 12. Jameer Nelson HoopsKLYCE.com Interesting round here, with only Mike Conley, Marvin Williams and Al Thornton qualifying as "upside picks." I love Villanueva as a sleeper and Kenyon Martin will have some big lines as long as he stays healthy. Joakim Noah's lack of offense scares me and I think he may have been available a round or two later. Zach Randolph has been nice in the preseason, and Mike D'Antoni likes him. If nothing else, he'll be a double-double machine. My over/under for games played by Nene is 55. Best Pick: Marvin Williams – Call me a homer and I hate to pimp myself, but enough of my buddies within the Hawks' organization have talked enough smack about his new and improved game to last me a lifetime (trust me). Shadiest Pick: Kevin Love – I thought I "loved" him early, but he's coming off the bench and having conditioning issues. He could be a second-half sleeper though. Round 10 1. Jeff Green HoopsKLYCE.com 2. Ricky Davis RotoExperts 3. Beno Udrih Y! Brandon 4. Raja Bell Y! - Buser 5. Ramon Sessions Y! - Romig 6. Rudy Fernandez Rotoworld Steve 7. Hakim Warrick RotoWire- Phan 8. Derrick Rose FBC- Jontom 9. Anthony Parker RotoExperts 10. Ronnie Brewer RotoWire - Dre 11. Jamario Moon 82games.com 12. Marc Gasol RotoWire - Liss Finally Klyce leaves me alone and I get Rudy Fernandez, who should be the starter at shooting guard on opening night. That's right. I think Brandon Roy will slide out of position (red flag) to small forward and Rudy will start at the 2. That said, I don't see a single sure thing in Round 10, including Rudy. Best Pick: Derrick Rose – A great time to gamble on Rose, who should start in Chicago. Shadiest Pick: Gasol does several things adequately and nothing well. I could be wrong, but I just don't see Gasol being that much better than Darko was last year. Round 11 1. Thaddeus Young RotoWire - Liss 2. Mickael Pietrus 82games.com 3. Rashad McCants RotoWire - Dre 4. Rafer Alston RotoExperts 5. Ryan Gomes FBC- Jontom 6. Wilson Chandler RotoWire- Phan 7. Matt Barnes Rotoworld Steve 8. Andray Blatche Y! - Romig 9. Shaquille O'Neal Y! - Buser 10. Marcus Williams Y! Brandon 11. Nick Collison RotoExperts 12. J.R. Smith HoopsKLYCE.com Can you say Sleeper Round? Young, Pietrus, McCants (who has been awesome in preseason), Alston, Gomes, Chandler, Barnes, Blatche, Marcus Williams and J.R. Smith are all sleeper candidates. Shaq and Collison were simply filling in center holes for guys. I won't lie…I'm in love with Matt Barnes this year. And he even started tonight, just as he should on opening night for the Suns. Best Pick: Thaddeus Young – Stud in the making. Shadiest Pick: Mickael Pietrus – Will he ever touch the ball with Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson around? Round 12 1. Boris Diaw HoopsKLYCE.com 2. Nate Robinson RotoExperts 3. Brook Lopez Y! Brandon 4. Travis Outlaw Y! - Buser 5. Yi Jianlian Y! - Romig 6. Andrea Bargnani Rotoworld Steve 7. Drew Gooden RotoWire- Phan 8. Chris Wilcox FBC- Jontom 9. Amir Johnson RotoExperts 10. Shane Battier RotoWire - Dre 11. Tayshaun Prince 82games.com 12. Linas Kleiza RotoWire - Liss This was simply a tough round and I took Bargnani because he qualifies at center. But, he's had a nice preseason and it finally looks like he'll break out this year. We shall see. We've been talking nice stuff about Amir Johnson, but he hasn't delivered in the preseason. I also think that Travis Outlaw may be a surprise for the Blazers and I can't argue with a late-round flier on Nate Robinson. He's a player D'Antoni could fall in love with. Best Pick: Drew Gooden – He's locked into the starting job and should be a double-double machine. Shadiest Pick: Shane Battier – Sorry Dre, but Artest's arrival should render Battier useless…Unless T-Mac goes down (or should I say 'when'). Round 13 1. Tyrus Thomas RotoWire - Liss 2. Chris Duhon 82games.com 3. Grant Hill RotoWire - Dre 4. Delonte West RotoExperts 5. Russell Westbrook FBC- Jontom 6. Luis Scola RotoWire- Phan 7. Bobby Simmons Rotoworld Steve 8. Marcus Banks Y! - Romig 9. Earl Watson Y! - Buser 10. Louis Williams Y! Brandon 11. Paul Millsap RotoExperts 12. James Posey HoopsKLYCE.com Can I argue with any of these picks? No. Do I love Bobby Simmons replacing Jefferson in Jersey? Yes. Marcus Banks will be cut by opening night and Scola was a steal here. Delonte West would look better if it weren't for a two-week absence from training camp for personal reasons. I love Lou Williams as a deep sleeper, but not enough to take him over Posey. Best Pick: James Posey – Morris Peterson somehow kept the starting SG job in New Orleans last year despite sucking, but I just don't see it happening this year. Shadiest Pick: Paul Millsap – He's in no-man's land as long as Boozer, Okur and Kirilenko are healthy. |
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| | #11 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Draft Day Quick Hits I have two fairly major drafts on Monday night so I thought I'd throw some last minute quick hits out there regarding injuries, rotations, dog houses and the what not. My goal is to make these quick hits. Let's see if I can do it. Oh, and as you'll see, these are in random order, but grouped by team. If you want more clarification on anything you read here, check out that player's latest news blurb on Rotoworld for more details. And if you still haven't gotten your copy of the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide, just click on the link to hook it up. Quick Hits My mind tells me that Washington's Caron Butler is easily a Top 10 pick this year but his recent injury history scares the heck out of me. I will probably not be drafting Utah's Deron Williams (ankle), Clipper Baron Davis (finger) or Clipper Marcus Camby (heel) in either draft tonight. There's just too much uncertainty there, although if any of them are still somehow sitting there in the fourth or fifth round, I could change my mind. Camby sounds like the guy who has the best chance of being ready on opening night and I already own him in a few leagues. I just think that until I get good news about his heel injury, I'm going to look elsewhere for a big tonight. Stay tuned to Rotoworld's news blurbs throughout the day Monday as we're expecting updates on Baron and Deron – Maybe we should call them "Beron" for the rest of the day? As to whether or not Ronnie Price, Jason Hart or Brevin Knight are worth drafting, I would say only if you end up with Williams or Baron. But I also think that Eric Gordon's value just got a boost with news that Baron is likely out for a month or so (although that has yet to be confirmed). Larry Brown still scares me to death and the only Bobcat I really trust right now is Emeka Okafor. I assume Gerald Wallace and Jason Richardson are also good to go, but you just never know with Larry. Toronto's Jamario Moon is in Sam Mitchell's dog house and there's no telling when he's coming out. I'm not drafting him. Andrea Bargnani, despite his off night on Sunday, looks fantastic and I'd much rather roll the dice on him than Moon at this point. I am getting concerned with Jose Calderon's quiet preseason. I am comforted by looking at last year's numbers and knowing that Willie Solomon and Roko Ukic are his only back ups, but I'm still a little worried about him. The fact Cleveland's Delonte West is getting help for his emotional issues should mean an improvement in his play. I think he's a better late-round option now than he was a week ago. I still think Michael Finley and Ime Udoka are going to surprise people while the Spurs wait for Manu Ginobili to return to action. Sacramento's Spencer Hawes looked like a beast in his last game and will start the first five of the season for Brad Miller. His surgically repaired knee (three times) really makes me nervous, but I'm quite intrigued. John Salmons hasn't been setting the world on fire, but I'm still a big fan this year. Tyrus Thomas suddenly looks like a must-have last-round pick again. He does this to me every year, but if he could actually win that starting Bulls' PF job and get some consistent minutes, he will be a blast to own. Or he will be a bust again and the hate mail will come rolling in. And if Drew Gooden ends up qualifying at center, look out. As for Joakim Noah? He wasn't really on my radar before last night's 'Thomas could start at PF' chatter started. There is concern that Greg Oden hasn't looked all that great lately for the Blazers, but I still get the feeling he's going to calm down and have a big year. Portland is one of those teams having trouble coming up with a set starting lineup and my fingers are still crossed that Rudy Fernandez finds his way into it. I am standing behind my early pick of Matt Barnes as a major sleeper this season. He may or may not start (I still think he will), but the opportunity should be there in Phoenix either way. Steve Nash hurt his ankle again and if you draft him, go ahead and snag Goran Dragic in the last round. Trust me. Or at least be ready to pounce on him the second Nash goes down in the regular season. The Mavs' Jason Kidd has been less than spectacular in the preseason but I'm still betting he plays pretty well this year. There may not be a more boring pick at No. 5 than Dirk Nowitzki, but he's probably the guy you should be looking at there. www.dallasmavericks.ws Am I nervous that Detroit's Rodney Stuckey will be a bust and make me look like an idiot? A little. Do I still like him and think he'll emerge as a solid fantasy contributor for most of the season? Yep. J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin should both have good seasons for the Nuggets this year. Jeff Green has been pretty quiet in the preseason, but I think he's going to have a real nice year for the Thunder. Jameer Nelson is the only point guard in Orlando, but that still doesn't make him a sure thing. Expect every Warrior to look like an all-star at some point this season. I trust that Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette and Andris Biedrins will all have nice seasons this year. I also trust that Don Nelson still has no idea what he's going to do with his point guard situation, you will be tempted to snag Kelenna Azubuike off waivers at least twice this year, and that Anthony Randolph is going to be a blast to watch in garbage time. I will not be drafting Tracy McGrady of the Rockets tonight. I'm also wondering if he should go talk to someone. He's up one day, down the next, etc. Maybe he's taking the Palin approach and setting expectations as low as possible, but he's doing a good job of selling it. If you listen to T-Mac, his body is a mess. No thanks. I really like the thought of having New Orleans' James Posey on my fantasy teams as a late-round flier this year. And keep your eye on Devin Brown throughout the season. I bet he emerges. There is still chatter that Danilo Gallinari may be the starting small forward for the Knicks this season. I'll believe it when I see it. Something tells me that Quentin Richardson is going to have a good season, but I'm still having trouble pulling the trigger on him in drafts. I'm a little nervous about Devin Harris' quiet preseason but I'm sure he'll be fine. I also still like Bobby Simmons, but have been disappointed thus far. Hopefully he can stay healthy. And no one is talking about Chris Douglas-Roberts, but I am targeting him late in some deeper drafts. Talk out of New Jersey is that he's had a good summer and is ready to contribute now. The Pacers don't look great and Danny Granger has barely hit a shot in the preseason. I still trust that when the real games start Granger will answer the call. I'm not sure if any other Pacers will, but Granger should be great. Mike Dunleavy's knee is concerning, but we just don't know if it's really serious or not. Phil Jackson can't decide on the Lakers' starting lineup, but it looks like Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Vladimir Radmanovic, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Bench players Jordan Farmar and Lamar Odom both have more value than Fisher and Radmanovic, while Trevor Ariza is going to be a guy you think about picking up a few times this season. I will not be drafting Odom tonight. I'm also not sure I still want Kobe at No. 3 and might target Amare Stoudemire there instead. The Lakers are super deep and Kobe doesn't appear to have the mindset to try to do it all by himself anymore. Also, put Chris Mihm on your deep-sleeper list. He looks like a new player now that he's finally healthy. Eric Gordon and Al Thornton are looking better and better as the Clippers implode. Don't sleep on Udonis Haslem. He looks like he might end up being the Heat's (undersized) center and is playing very well. If nothing else, you know he's going to start. And yes, I am very concerned about Shawn Marion's role with the Heat and am going to try to find a way to avoid drafting him tonight. We had Kevin Love coming off the bench for the Wolves early in the summer, caught some heat for it from certain "fans," changed our mind and moved him into the starting lineup, and are now right back where we started. Conditioning is an issue and it looks like he could come off the bench for some time. I still like Randy Foye, especially after that 15-assist night recently. Stay healthy please. Marc Gasol is being consistently drafted in all my leagues. He's not going to be dominant, but he'll provide boards and blocks, and also has the ability to dish and score. O.J. Mayo is going in the middle rounds and if you have him targeted as a sleeper, you may have to take him a little earlier than you were planning on. It's been a quiet preseason for Richard Jefferson but you have to think he's going to have a good year for the Bucks. Charlie Villanueva is still one of my favorite sleepers and I will not be drafting Ramon Sessions in any leagues that I can think of. |
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| | #12 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Why the Low Price? This past Sunday night, I partook in an auction. Just so there's no confusion, this was not a grand affair at Sotheby's where one spends untold fortunes to hang some of Monet's water lilies on the sitting room wall. Nor was it the kind of auction where your childhood friend who fell in with the wrong crowd is having his collection of Maseratis sold off to help pay his legal fees. And, for the record, we are not talking about the sort of event whereby your arch-golfing nemesis, a fellow named "Shooter," is attempting to purchase your grandmother's house as a means of getting you (and your wildly popular unorthodox style) off the pro tour for good. The type of auction I'm referring to is a fantasy basketball auction, specifically one in which you have a total of $200 to spend on 13 players. And I bring it up because seeing monetary values attached to players hammered home an important point: As the regular season draws near, a number of players ranging from prominent to slightly more obscure remain decidedly undervalued in fantasy drafts. Got Guide? If not, here's your chance: Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide Here's a look at eight potential gems who can be acquired at a discounted price: Jeff Green In my auction draft, I picked up the rising young Oklahoma City forward for a scant bid of 3 dollars, which is about what you'd pay for a grilled kielbasa at the local renaissance fair. For frame of reference, Chris Paul, LeBron and Kobe all went for over 50 dollars in my auction, which is more like what you'd pay for violating a noise ordinance at the renaissance fair when your experimental lute quartet decides to branch out and play some Def Leppard covers. The key takeaway from this monetary analogy is not that grilled kielbasa is good and Def Leppard covers played by lute quartets are bad; rather, it's that Green is somewhere in the vicinity of highly undervalued heading into his second NBA campaign. Skeptics most likely see Green's modest rookie stats (10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 spg and 0.6 bpg) and wonder exactly where this forecast is coming from. And yes, it's true that for much of his rookie year, Green looked decidedly lost (or green, if you will) in the Emerald City. But here's where the season stats don't tell the whole story: During his final 15 games, Green averaged 15.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.0 spg and 0.7 bpg, while also adding a total of nine threes (0.6 per game). And over the season's final 10 days, he dropped 35 points, 10 rebounds, two threes, a steal and a block on Denver, then closed out the year with 27 points, 10 boards and two steals against Golden State. Kevin Durant is the unquestioned face of the Thunder, and his stature clearly drowns out most or all of the hype surrounding Green. But as Durant's sidekick, Green is being counted on for significant production as well, and losing sight of this versatile forward in the late rounds of your draft would be a big mistake. Randy Foye He won't come quite as cheap as most of the other players on this list, but Foye's impending breakout remains relatively low profile. That's in part because of last year's solid, but not eye-popping season averages (13.1 ppg, 4.2 apg and 1.6 threes per game), and because of health concerns after Foye missed the first 43 games of 2007-08 with a knee injury. Perhaps further impacting people's perception of Foye is that his backup, Sebastian Telfair, seems to still carry some name recognition as a player who is thought to have high upside. Ultimately, it doesn't matter what inconsequential factors are driving Foye's value down – all you should care about is that he's the man at point guard in Minnesota. Over the final 10 games of last season, Foye averaged 18.4 ppg, 5.2 apg and 2.2 threes a night. Let other people scramble to draft the talented but high-priced Devin Harris, then grab Foye – who could be just as good – a couple rounds later. David West He's got an anonymous name, frequently chooses to play below the rim and probably doesn't enjoy sugar cereal. But while West's outward characteristics aren't particularly dynamic, if you're ultimately concerned with stats above all else (and you should be), his production is more than dynamic enough. There are few power forwards who contribute like West (20.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.3 bpg with great percentages), yet he comes at a cheaper price than Chris Bosh, who had virtually identical stats last year. Unlike the other players on this list, West will be an early-round pick in your draft. But he's listed here because he remains significantly undervalued among the first 50 or so players who will come off the draft board. Don't worry about the why (unless the breakfast cereal thing really bothers you). Let someone else pay for Bosh and then enjoy Bosh-like production one round later. Rafer Alston Once one of the most trendy sleepers in fantasy hoops, it seems that owners have tired slightly of Skip to My Lou's act. Here's what is inexplicably causing our fatigue: 13.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.5 spg and 1.9 threes a night. (Those are Alston's cumulative averages over the past four seasons.) At age 32, he's not likely to suddenly plummet off a statistical ledge, so if you can get past the unexplained nonchalance surrounding Alston in drafts, you should be enjoying those stats for at least another year. Granted, you'll also be enjoying a field goal percentage (39.1% over the past four years) that will blast a small to medium-sized hole in your hull in that category (mandatory seafaring analogy: complete). But at the late stage you're acquiring Alston, the rest of his contributions will make the substandard shooting worth it. Just do yourself a favor and make sure he's the only truly rotten marksman on your squad. Kenyon Martin Owners are afraid of K-Mart getting injured, and perhaps rightfully so (who, after all, can forget that dreadful staph infection of the buttocks last winter). But before you instinctively run away at the thought of infected rear ends, realize this: In his first season back after microfracture surgery, Martin played in a surprising 71 games last year, averaging 12.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.2 spg and 1.2 bpg. And with Marcus Camby now in Denver, K-Mart appears poised for a small statistical spike in 2008-09 (barring, of course, any unforeseen maladies relating to his hindquarters). He's a big name, so he probably won't be on the board at the very end of your draft, but Martin is a nice value pick heading into this year. Mike Conley He is certainly on people's radars heading into the season, but perhaps not as much as he should be. Conley showed plenty of potential last year, but one thing he also displayed was a relatively weak jump shot (the lefty hit just 30 threes in 53 games last year). However, in his first seven preseason games this year, Conley buried 7-of-16 threes (43.8%). The preseason doesn't always mean much in terms of how players will produce over the course of 82 games, but in terms of something like a three-point stroke, it can be a legitimate barometer of success. His preseason production is admittedly a small sample size, but if the devastatingly quick Conley adds a three per game to his contributions in assists and steals, he'll make a very nice (and inexpensive) second-tier point guard this year. Amir Johnson The perfect type of player to grab in the last round of your draft. He's young (21), explosive, relatively unknown, has limitless upside (particularly as a shot-blocker) and appears to be your starting power forward in Detroit. Johnson does have significant competition for minutes (Jason Maxiell, Antonio McDyess and Kwame Brown are all in the mix), but there's a reason you're getting him in the last round. While other people are visiting old haunts like Cuttino Mobley and Kyle Korver – playing it safe in hopes of capturing 12 ppg and a few threes – you can gain an edge by staying aggressive all the way to the end. Johnson is an everyman's name, but in the case of your new friend Amir, it is a name that's synonymous with potential. The one time he played more than 30 minutes last year, Johnson posted a line of eight points, nine rebounds and seven blocks in a mid-February win over Indiana. Tyrus Thomas Because he's proven himself to be one of the more infuriating prospects in fantasy hoops (going for 20 points, 14 boards and 3 blocks one game to 4 points and 4 rebounds the next, to cite a recent example from last April), you can expect Thomas to be available at the end of your draft. This qualifies as relatively outstanding news, because Thomas is the epitome of a great late-round pick – a guy with absolutely freakish potential who just needs a coach to consistently play him in the range of 30 minutes a night. At this precise moment, it appears that Vinny Del Negro may be that coach, as Thomas is currently the Bulls' starting power forward. This does not mean that you count on him to be a starter for your fantasy team just yet (after all, you've probably had a chair yanked out from under you by this man before). Instead, you plant him on your bench at the start of the season and wait to see if he looks ready to fulfill his vast potential. If so, you have permission to make a speech. If not, you cast him away and move on all the wiser, which you are now advised to do with regard to this column. |
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| | #13 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Fantasy Hoops: Week 1 Primer The NBA season finally kicks off on Tuesday. The games will count, the Shaq "Retirement Tour Countdown" officially begins and the status of fantasy studs like Deron Williams and Marcus Camby remains a mystery. Starting next week we will be offering several free columns per week right here, including the Daily Dose, Waiver Wired, Matt Stroup's unnamed column, the Week Ahead and a Trends column. In addition, the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is still available and the all new Rotoworld NBA Season Pass will include Buy Low-Sell High, Weekly Position Rankings, the Top 200 Going Forward, the Top 200 Keepers and much more! Here's your Week 1 Primer, which should tell you everything you need to know going into the new season. Where else can you get a quick take on over 130 players? Suspensions There are several guys who will start the season suspended and it's easy to forget that they won't be playing. Do whatever you can to make sure these guys are not in your lineup, and that the beneficiaries of their absence are. Brad Miller – Five games If you didn't happen to see it, Spencer Hawes exploded for 25 points and 16 boards on Thursday night. He didn't block a shot, but who cares? He's guaranteed to start the first five games of the season, three of which happen this week. I say pick him up in every league you can and run him out there for those five games – especially if you own an injury question mark like Camby or Samuel Dalembert (or Miller). Carmelo Anthony – Two games Melo is out for the first two games of the season, meaning he should not be in your lineup in weekly leagues. Dahntay Jones will get the start in his place, but it should be J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza getting the big bump in production, while Allen Iverson should be big. I love J.R. Smith right now and if there was ever a week to make sure he's in your lineup, this is it. Marvin Williams – One game Marvin is out for one of the Hawks two games this week, so don't play him in weeklies. I imagine Zaza Pachulia (who actually played well last night) will start at center, shifting Al Horford to PF and Josh Smith to SF. It also means more minutes off the bench for Maurice Evans and Flip Murray. These two aren't being drafted in many leagues this year, but both have nice sleeper potential. The rest: Sebastian Telfair (3 games), Royal Ivey (3 games) Schedule The Milwaukee Bucks play four games this week, while most other teams go three times. The Hawks, Bobcats, Mavericks, Pistons, Pacers, Nets, Spurs, Jazz and Wizards each play twice. This means that Andrew Bogut, Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva and Luke Ridnour are all nearly must-plays in weekly leagues. In addition, Ramon Sessions and Charlie Bell also deserve looks. If you're in a close battle for free throw percentage in a H2H league, Bogut and his 58% shooting could also do some damage with the extra game, so keep that in mind. As for the 2-Game decisions, they're a little tougher. Do you start Josh Smith after that dismal preseason? Do you start Josh Howard for two games if you have Charlie V available for four? I would say you want to play your studs in Week 1 unless you have a better option that makes sense in your mind. You will not find Smith, Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, Dirk Nowitzki, Chauncey Billups, Danny Granger, Vince Carter, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Carlos Boozer, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler on many benches this week. But Mike Bibby, Emeka Okafor, Gerald Wallace, Josh Howard, Jason Kidd, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Rodney Stuckey, Mike Dunleavy, Devin Harris, Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, Antonio Daniels and DeShawn Stevenson should all be examined closely. I'm thinking you'll generally want to play Bibby, Okafor, Wallace, Howard, Kidd, Harris and Okur. But because of injuries and the limited games played, I'd recommend sitting Williams and Dunleavy. And go ahead and sit (or cut) Daniels and only play Stevenson in an emergency. For the rest (Rip, Sheed, Stuckey, Harris, Kirilenko) take a look at all your options before putting them in your lineup. Check out Page 2 for 127 players who are either hot or cold heading into the season. I avoided most of the superstars as you shouldn't have to think about whether or not to start many of them. Who's Hot – Quick Hits Andre Brown – Made Bobcats and could start at PF over Sean May Derrick Rose – On fire lately and rendering Kirk Hinrich useless Tyrus Thomas – Tearing up preseason and should start Brandon Bass – Great preseason for Mavs, keep an eye on him Dahntay Jones – Will get two starts in absence of Melo J.R. Smith – Tons of threes coming, especially w/o Melo Kenyon Martin – Healthy and should get most of Camby's boards Nene – Start him early and often before he gets hurt Rodney Stuckey – Will play starter's minutes but 2-game week risky DeMarcus Nelson – Likely starter, even though we're still not convinced Kelenna Azubuike – Hot now, but can't trust him under Don Nelson Stephen Jackson – A must-start, along with Maggette, Harrington, Biedrins T.J. Ford – Huge game last night and clearly the PG in Indy. Marquis Daniels – If you own Dunleavy, you should own Daniels too Rasho Nesterovic – Starting center, insurance for Camby Dalembert? Al Thornton – Only Clipper really kicking right now Chris Kaman – Could be big this week if Camby can't go Jordan Farmar – Not starting, but should produce off the bench Andrew Bynum – Had a nice preseason and looks ready to go Vladimir Radmanovic – Probably starting, but risky O.J. Mayo – Starting and scoring. Run him out there in Week 1 Marc Gasol – Starting center. Boards and blocks, but not much else Darko Milicic – Starting PF, but risk is his middle name Udonis Haslem – Starting center? No blocks, but could average double-double Mario Chalmers – Could be starting PG but a risky play Michael Beasley – Should start at PF and should be in lineups Dwyane Wade – Um, yes! Luke Ridnour – 4-game week and locked in as the starter. Play him Kevin Love – Bounced back from off night, but very risky Randy Foye – This is the week to play him with Telfair's suspension Al Jefferson – Duh. I avoided most stars on this list, but just in case Brook Lopez – One of the only healthy bigs in Jersey and hot! 2 games hurts Chris Duhon – Locked in as the starter, I'd use him this week David Lee – C – Starting at center and comes with little risk Stephon Marbury – Starting? Worth owning, but start at own risk Zach Randolph – No reason for him to be on your bench Hedo Turkoglu – Back from groin injury and big in his last game J.J. Redick – Not starting, hot, but showcasing for trade? Watch him Johan Petro – A few awesome fantasy lines and may available on wire Russell Westbrook – Started last game and produced. TOs a concern Nick Collison – Wilcox hurting, should assure Collison of big minutes Kevin Durant – Let the breakout year begin Marreese Speights – Playing well in Dalembert's absence, watch him Lou Williams – Playing well, but it's Andre Miller's show Matt Barnes – My favorite sleeper, hot and was named the starter Boris Diaw – Quietly produces, should be a sneaky fantasy play Steve Nash – Back from sprained ankle so play him Greg Oden – Health a concern but good to go for now Rudy Fernandez – Bench role blows but productive preseason John Salmons – Poor preseason, but should be poised for breakout Spencer Hawes – Start in all formats for two weeks w/o Miller Kevin Martin – Playing well, an obvious start Jose Calderon – Better in his last couple and a must-start Andrea Bargnani – Sixth man, great preseason will hopefully carry over Carlos Boozer – Hamstring appears to be no problem Ronnie Brewer – Could score a little more if Deron remains out Andrei Kirilenko – Increased scoring if Deron misses time Nick Young – On fire in last one, should get run w/o Arenas Who's Not – Quick Hits Josh Smith – I'm playing him. Bench at own risk Marvin Williams – Suspended for Game 1 Sean May – May not be starting due to conditioning Adam Morrison – Playing decent, but knee huge concern Ben Gordon – Toe injury means no conditioning or preseason work Joakim Noah – Tyrus Thomas stole the show Larry Hughes – Separated shoulder Kirk Hinrich – Upswing with Larry Hughes injury, but still shaky Luol Deng – Quiet preseason, but should come around Mo Williams – Not a great preseason, can he score alongside LeBron? Delonte West – Likely to come off the bench, should get better with time Jason Kidd – Scoring drought continues in preseason, but should be fine Jason Terry – Lost job to Antoine Wright, numbers should dip Allen Iverson – Coming off ankle injury but should be fine Carmelo Anthony – Suspension ruins Week 1 Amir Johnson – Blocks and production are coming, but he's young Chauncey Billups – Still a must start, but Stuckey buzzkill coming C.J. Watson – Out indefinitely with elbow injury Marcus Williams – Terrible preseason, DeMarcus Nelson starting for now Baron Davis – Injury makes him iffy, but may play in Game 1 Tracy McGrady – Injuries galore, but a must-start if healthy Shane Battier – Injured right now and lost starting job Mike Dunleavy – Knee becoming huge concern Marcus Camby – Oh Marcus, where are you? (heel) Baron Davis – Finger injury a concern, but not serious Cuttino Mobley – Losing minutes to Eric Gordon Tim Thomas – Groin injury Kobe Bryant – Knee injury, but doesn't sound serious Lamar Odom – A mess right now, start him at your own risk Derek Fisher – Starter, but produces like bench player Rudy Gay – Staph infection a pain in the leg Hakim Warrick – Beat out by Darko – ouch Shawn Marion – You have to start him, but you didn't have to draft him Chris Quinn – Quietly invisible Andrew Bogut – Ankle injury but sounds like he'll play Charlie Bell – Coming off injury but intriguing with four games Ryan Gomes – Role undefined at this point Sebastian Telfair – 3 game suspension Josh Boone – Heart problem limiting him Sean Williams – Started camp hot, disappeared Bobby Simmons – Starting and potential, but quiet preseason Devin Harris – Not a great preseason, but a must-start Yi Jianlian – Solid in last game, but play at your own risk Eddy Curry – Completely out of the rotation Wilson Chandler – Knee injury a potential buzzkill Quentin Richardson – Get boost with WC injury, but poor preseason Jamal Crawford – Not fitting into D'Antoni's system early. Benched? Mickael Pietrus – Not enough balls to go around for him to score Chris Wilcox – Virus, shin, hamstring – Iffy for now Samuel Dalembert – Knee injury becoming concern, should play Grant Hill – Benched for Matt Barnes Amare Stoudemire – Pinky injury last night could hurt Shaquille O'Neal – Games played a big concern, along w/ FTP Travis Outlaw – Where's he fit in with deep team? Jerryd Bayless – Ditto Brad Miller – 5-game suspension Francisco Garcia – Out a few weeks with calf injury Manu Ginobili – Out at least a month Jamario Moon – In Sam Mitchell's doghouse, can't make a shot Deron Williams – Ankle injury a big concern, but signs positive Gilbert Arenas – Out at least a month (knee) Antonio Daniels – Can't produce despite absence of Arenas Brendan Haywood – Season over |
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| | #14 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Start 'em or bench 'em? Some leagues have already required you to set your lineup for this week. And if you haven't set yours yet, you'll be forced to make some painful decisions in about 24 hours. There are three games scheduled for Tuesday night: Cavs @ Celtics, Bucks @ Bulls and Blazers @ Lakers. Let's take a look at guys you should be playing and guys you should be benching this week. We're putting the finishing touches on the first ever Rotoworld NBA Season Pass, so check it out. Marcus Camby – Clippers Bench him It sounds like he has very little chance of playing for the Clippers this week due to a heel injury. As far as a replacement player, you may want to check your waiver wire to find a big man. Zaza Pachulia will get some run this week with Marvin Williams suspended for Game 1 and Aaron Gray could start in the middle for the Bulls. And in extremely deep leagues, Bobcats coach Larry Brown is talking about starting Andre Brown at power forward. Kelenna Azubuike – Warriors Start him Marcus Thompson of the Contra Costa Times had this to say after watching Azubuike scrimmage with his team on Sunday. "His athleticism stands out...He is physically just superior. But now it looks like he has confidence." Any time I hear praise coming out of Warrior-land like that that isn't coming from Don Nelson, I stop and take notice. Add in the fact that Azubuike could start at shooting guard if Nellie is serious about starting Steven Jackson at point guard, Corey Maggette is hurting, along with the three-game week, and Azubuike looks like a winner. For the record, I don't expect Jackson to start at PG, but 'Buike should get solid minutes either way. And while we're on the topic of Maggette, keep a close eye on him for Week 1. He's a classic "game-time decision" right now with a hamstring injury. Deron Williams – Jazz Bench him It still sounds like there's an outside chance Williams will shock the world and start on opening night. If you have flexibility and can set your roster up until game time each night, hold out as long as you can and see if we get more definitive news. But if you have to make a decision today or by the first game on Tuesday night, I'd probably play it safe and bench Williams. The Jazz only play two games this week and he's not really a good bet for either of them. J.R. Smith – Nuggets Start him With Carmelo Anthony out for two of the three Nuggets games this week, J.R. Smith should get some extra run. Dahntay Jones will start, but look for Smith to launch a ton of threes and score a lot of points for the Nuggets this week. Marvin Williams – Hawks Bench him He's got a one-game suspension, meaning he'll play just one game this week. Brad Miller is also suspended for the first five games of the season. Derrick Rose – Bulls Start him We still know very little about the Bulls starting five or the rotation. Larry Hughes will be back sooner than expected, but is he the starting shooting guard? Kirk Hinrich played well in his last game, so maybe he is. Tyrus Thomas has a sore ankle and Vinny Del Negro supposedly wants to start Aaron Gray at center and Drew Gooden at PF. Or, he also seems to like Gooden at center and Ty starting at the PF. Ben Gordon hasn't played in forever but is also a candidate to start at SG. And Luol Deng had a quiet preseason while Andres Nocioni came on late and could get some starts at the small forward position. The one position that is not in question for the Bulls is the point guard and it's going to keep more than a minor hip injury to keep Rose from going off in Week 1. Don't hesitate to put him in your lineup. Rodney Stuckey – Pistons Bench him I've been Stuckey's No. 1 cheerleader in the offseason but this is probably not the week you want to experiment with him. The Pistons play just two games and the simple fact of the matter is that Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton are the starting guards in Detroit. In a 3-game week, I think Stuckey has a good chance of posting solid-to-great numbers in two of them. In a 2-game week, there's just too much risk there. And speaking of the Pistons, be sure to check out our latest blurb on Tayshaun Prince, who coach Michael Curry says he wants to make into an All-Star this season. Nene – Nuggets Start him Melo's out for a couple, Camby is gone and Nene is actually walking without a limp as of now. This might be the only chance you get to start him this season, so enjoy it while it lasts. Actually, I am hoping to be able to start him from week to week, but he's as brittle as they come. Jason Terry – Mavericks Bench him www.dallasmavericks.ws It looks like Jet has lost his starting job and the Mavs only play twice this week. He's still Jason Terry and I imagine he'll find a way to maintain some fantasy value this season, but my instincts tell me he was drafted too early in most leagues and probably won't do much more than hit some threes and score some points. We'll see. Marquis Daniels – Pacers Start him www.indianapacers.ws That's right…Marquis Daniels. Mike Dunleavy sounds extremely doubtful for Week 1 and Daniels is poised to handle the SG duties in his absence. Daniels is healthy for the first time in a couple years and looked good in the preseason. And if you own Dunleavy, it's a good idea to pick Daniels up if you can find room for him on your roster. Baron Davis – Clippers Bench him Baron has not been taking part in the contact portions of practice and is still wearing a splint on his finger. While everyone seems to be talking about the soap opera and circus taking place once again in New York, no team is as disheveled as the Clippers. I really don't know if Baron is going to play this week or not. But for now, I'm going to bench him and hope for some good news later today or some time on Tuesday. Jason Hart and Mike Taylor are his backups, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cuttino Mobley is the biggest beneficiary from a hurting Davis. Spencer Hawes – Kings Start him www.sacramentokings.ws While it's probably a stretch to think that Hawes will be useful from week to week, there's no reason he should not be worth playing for at least the first five games. Brad Miller is out and Hawes looked good in the preseason. I am starting him with confidence this week and will then look into cutting him for a hot free agent later on. Watchmen Darko Milicic – Grizzlies Watch him I'm not going to tell you to bench or start Darko because he's probably not even owned in your league. But he's the starting PF and should be watched closely over these first couple games. Charlie Bell – Bucks Watch him/Start him Bell plays four games this week and is going to get minutes at both guard spots, although he's still hurting with a tender Achilles. I'm actually starting him in my 30-team league with the four starts, but I'm not sure I'd consider using him in a regular sized league. Just keep your eye on him. Mario Chalmers – Heat Watch him/own him I'm a big fan of Chalmers right now and own him in most leagues. Chris Quinn is likely going to start at point guard for the Heat, but Chalmers will probably get more minutes and eventually win the job. Yes, Shaun Livingston is waiting in the wings but will likely start the season on the inactive list as he tries to get his knee back in shape. Brook Lopez – Nets Watch him/own him I am also a big fan of Lopez, especially given all the injuries to big men in New Jersey right now. Josh Boone should play this week and the two will likely share minutes in the middle, but Lopez looked fantastic while Boone was out in the preseason and should start at least the first few games. James Posey – Hornets Watch him Very little has been said or seen of Posey thus far but you have to think he's going to be a 3-point specialist for Byron Scott's Hornets. Scott sounds determined to keep Posey coming off the bench, but plenty of minutes should be coming his way. If you need threes, Posey should be at the top of your list of free agents you're watching. Quentin Richardson – Knicks Watch him I was fairly excited about Q's prospects under new coach Mike D'Antoni and he even started the preseason at small forward. However, he was not great and fell off most everyone's radar screens. Wilson Chandler is hurting and Richardson is healthy for the first time in forever. Keep your eye on him, as I would not be surprised to see him still emerge with some solid fantasy value and one of the league's top 3-point bombers. |
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| | #15 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Position Battles: Round One Welcome to the season's first Position Battles. All year long we'll explore the shifting values of players whose roles aren't quite defined. Used in conjunction with our constantly-updated player news, you should have all the information you need to make informed decisions and, ultimately, win your leagues. Without further ado... Bulls backcourt: Derrick Rose vs. Kirk Hinrich vs. Ben Gordon vs. Larry Hughes vs. Thabo Sefolosha Chicago is the Waterloo of position battles. The only spots that are currently settled seem to be point guard, where rookie Derrick Rose has a stranglehold, and small forward, where incumbent Luol Deng is firmly entrenched. Kirk Hinrich is currently the favorite to start at shooting guard, though it would not be surprising if Ben Gordon were to overtake him before long. Rose's offensive proficiency would prevent teams from double-teaming Gordon quite as often, giving the Bulls an explosive (if undersized) starting backcourt. Gordon has obviously had great success as a sixth man in the past, but it would be surprising if he does not surface in the starting lineup. It's a contract year for Ben, and he's still the team's leading scorer, so his owners shouldn't have much to complain about. Hinrich's versatility makes him ideally suited to fill in at both guard positions, increasing the likelihood that he'll eventually serve as a reserve. His value might never be higher than it is during the first few weeks of the season. Larry Hughes complicates matters. He could return from his shoulder injury in as little as one week, and will almost certainly steal minutes from Gordon and Hinrich. Besides his detrimental effect on those two players, however, fantasy owners should not be too concerned with Hughes this season...he doesn't even deserve to be owned in most leagues.> UPDATE: Apparently Thabo Sefolosha is favored to start at shooting guard, as Vinny Del Negro tries to improve the defensive outlook of his backcourt. Thabo will show flashes of brilliance, but with so many options clogging the rotation in Chicago (and Hughes soon to return) I don't like him as a long-term solution...I'll actually be surprised if he lasts as a starter for longer than a week. This also leaves the sixth-man role up in the air...Hinrich or Gordon? We'll soon find out. Bulls frontcourt: Aaron Gray vs. Joakim Noah vs. Drew Gooden vs. Tyrus Thomas The Bulls' frontcourt is equally muddled. Owners who drafted Joakim Noah cannot be too pleased, since he's no longer even in the conversation as the starting center. At the moment, Aaron Gray appears the favorite to start the middle with Drew Gooden playing power forward alongside him. That of course leaves both Noah and Tyrus Thomas coming off the bench, temporarily spoiling our plans for Thomas as a breakout candidate. Don't drop anyone valuable to pick up Gray, but he obviously deserves a long look in most leagues (in deep leagues, especially those that require two centers, you might as well pick him up right now). Noah, even if he doesn't end up starting, would likely to eat away at Gray's minutes, and of the two players Noah has greater upside. We still like Tyrus Thomas, but his challenge will be finding enough minutes to make an impact. Don't drop him, but if he hasn't carved out a significant chunk of the rotation by December (he is, after all, still pretty raw) you should obviously move on. The only sure bet in Chicago's frontcourt appears to be Drew Gooden. The veteran power forward might also be used at center, and as his numbers after coming to Chicago last season prove (14 points, 46% field goals, 81% free throws, 9.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.3 blocks in 31 minutes per game), he can still be a very productive fantasy option. Nets starting center: Brook Lopez vs. Josh Boone Brook Lopez is a virtual lock to start the season at center, but a minute-share probably won't be long in coming. As talented as Lopez is, he is still a rookie. There will be nights when he'll struggle, he will battle foul trouble at times, and of course there is always the threat of hitting the rookie wall. But we may have already seen Josh Boone's ceiling and there are plenty of reasons to like Lopez as a number two fantasy center. UPDATE: There is a 50/50 chance that Boone will start at center on opening night. It doesn't really change much, and I still expect Lopez to surface as a viable #2 center. Warriors point guard: Marcus Williams vs. DeMarcus Nelson vs. C.J. Watson vs. Stephen Jackson Nobody could have predicted that a moped accident would threaten to derail the Warriors season before it even began, but that's exactly what has happened. With Monta Ellis sidelined, new acquisition Marcus Williams appeared ready to take over the reins at point guard and quickly became one of the hottest sleepers in fantasy circles. Alas, it would not be so simple. After reporting to training camp in poor physical condition, Williams quickly lost ground to lesser-known backups DeMarcus Nelson and C.J. Watson. If you want value out of Golden State's point guards, look first to rookie DeMarcus Nelson, who is currently favored for the starting job. Of course, coach Don Nelson isn't known for being resolute in his decision-making, and the depth chart could reverse itself overnight. All I can say for now is, you shouldn't be starting any of these guys in Week 1. Marcus Williams was probably drafted in 95% of fantasy leagues, and it's still too early to give up all hope. He should be dropped, however, if he doesn't show signs of improvement within the season's first month. DeMarcus Nelson is a tough sell. He's a rookie, playing under a notoriously fickle and rookie-unfriendly coach, and there is serious competition for the starting gig. If Nelson struggles out of the gate, which it's very possible that he will, he'll more than likely be shifted to reserve role. If you're still clinging to a bottom-feeding point guard (Chris Quinn and Marcus Banks spring to mind) feel free to pick up Nelson—he has plenty of upside and you can always drop him next week. C.J. Watson is playing despite a torn ligament in his elbow, and it's hard to see him emerging with consistent value. I'd rank him ahead of Williams at this point, but he's too risky to bother owning outside of the Mariana Trench leagues. Stephen Jackson is versatile enough that he could fill in at point guard where needed—Don Nelson has already discussed the possibility. This not only ticks Jackson's value slightly higher, it could spell great things for backup Kelenna Azubuike, who would slide into the starting five if Jackson were playing PG. We're already high on Azubuike's upside as a sixth-man this season, so don't sleep on him. Raptors small forward: Jamario Moon vs. Joey Graham vs. Jason Kapono After finishing last season with a considerable fantasy value, Jamario Moon is no longer flying under the radar. Owners who spent on mid- to late-round pick on him are rightfully concerned by his awful showing this preseason, capped off by a couple of 0-for shooting performances and a (mercifully brief) Achilles injury. He is all healed up now and ready to start the season...but will he start, or come off the bench? Early indications are that Moon will retain his starting job. Joey Graham started a few preseason games, but that was probably more a wakeup call for Moon than anything else. Graham's athleticism is matched only by his inconsistency, something the Raptors can't afford to have in their starting lineup. Jason Kapono will not start with the simple reason that he's a much worse defensive player than Moon, and coach Sam Mitchell is desperate to drill a defensive mentality into his team. Moon is still a very worthwhile fantasy option—he did all of his damage last season (8.5 points, 0.5 threes, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.4 blocks) in under 28 minutes per game. It's entirely reasonable that he'll play that much again this season, though if you can afford to leave him on your bench for Week 1 you should do so. Bucks point guard: Luke Ridnour vs. Ramon Sessions The significance of this matchup is that there was never a position battle. We expected Sessions to at least challenge Ridnour for the starting point guard job in Milwaukee, but he never did. Scott Skiles probably has enough to worry about in his first year on the job, implementing his style and fitting together new pieces, that he didn't need to worry about an untested point guard running the show. Yes, untested. Sessions was terrific while filling in for an injured Mo Williams last season (averaging 8.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.0 steals in 26 minutes per game), but he did only appear in 17 games. He will definitely be heard from this season, and his owners should hang on to him for as long as they can afford to, but right now this is Ridnour's job to lose. Grizzlies frontcourt: Marc Gasol vs. Darko Milicic vs. Hakim Warrick vs. Darrell Arthur It is a bit misleading to include Gasol on that list, since there's no question that he will start at center. The real mystery is, who will start alongside him? Right now the answer is: Darko. Grizzlies coach Marc Iavaroni likes the way Gasol and Milicic operate together, and wants to pair them on the court as often as possible. He has even considered substituting them both at the same time, bringing in Warrick and Arthur and creating radically different matchups for the opposition. It is an experiment that's not guaranteed to work. For one thing, Darko hasn't been able to play consistently for any stretch of time and he has trouble staying healthy. For these reasons and more, Hakim Warrick still has considerable upside and it wouldn't be surprising to see him in the starting lineup before long. Even off the bench he should have enough versatility to scrape by in fantasy leagues, though without a starting gig he probably wouldn't remain on many rosters for the entire season. Consider him a boom-or-bust candidate at this point. The most surprising development in the battle for power forward is coach Iavaroni's glowing appraisal of rookie Darrell Arthur. In a recent interview, he said, "I haven't made that decision yet [regarding who will start at PF], but frankly, looking at the way Darrell Arthur has been playing…Now, he did it against back-ups, but they were NBA veteran backups. I think the kid has shown a lot of spunk and ability. I think he should definitely be in the rotation. If we don't start him, he could get lost in the rotation." Amazing, no? Darrell Arthur is, by virtue of that single quote, worth keeping a very close eye on. I would be very surprised if he actually starts on opening day, but neither Milicic nor Warrick are known for their consistency, adaptability or endearing natures, and the Grizzlies have little to lose by plugging another rookie into the starting five. Wolves power forward: Kevin Love vs. Craig Smith vs. Mark Madsen Contrary to the wishes of most fantasy owners, Kevin Love will start the season coming off the Wolves' bench. Or at least it appears that way. Coaches relish the opportunity to tinker with their lineups during the preseason, but at the moment Randy Wittman seems ready to let Love acclimate slowly to the NBA. Craig Smith is the apparent starter at PF, but we can't recommend him as a fantasy option. His game is very limited (some say he missed his true calling as a football player), he's coming off an injury-plagued season and he's not likely to last in the starting lineup. He is a deep-league special. Mark Madsen could also start a few games, but he's Mark Madsen. Need I say more? Wolves small forward: Ryan Gomes vs. Corey Brewer Ryan Gomes is big and versatile enough to fill in at power forward, but will probably see most of his action at small forward...good news for Gomes, who looks primed to follow up last season's breakout performance with another solid year. Draft him in the late rounds if you need an efficient utility-forward. Corey Brewer was pegged as a sleeper last season, but he never woke up (5.8 points on 38% shooting, 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.0 steals in 23 minutes per game). He'll get more minutes this season, but that's not going to improve his woeful inefficiency or his meager rebound and assist totals. Stash him on your bench if you have the space, but don't expect much. Wizards center: Etan Thomas vs. Andray Blatche vs. JaVale McGee Etan Thomas will start for the Wizards on opening day, even though many owners are sure (or at least very hopeful) that Andray Blatche will overtake him before long. I'm not so sure. Blatche isn't the most reliable big man, and Thomas has proven himself to be a capable NBA center. In 2006-2007, Thomas averaged 6.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in only 19 minutes per game. Numbers like that suggest that his appointment to the starting lineup, though inspired by Brendan Haywood's possibly season-ending injury, was no fluke. Blatche will be useful filling in at both power forward and center, but I don't see him having the breakout year everyone expects. Better numbers than last season? Sure, but not so much better that he'll be a comfortable fantasy starter night-in, night-out. JaVale McGee is, by all accounts, one of the most athletic big men in the NBA. The obvious caveat is that he's as raw as can be...explosive athleticism can only cover up so many mental lapses. The Wizards will get everything they can out of him, but I wouldn't bank on his averaging more than 20 minutes per game. There won't always be so many battles for starting positions, and some of the most important decisions of the season will be made in the first few weeks. Don't neglect the waiver wire, but don't go too crazy, either, or you'll be kicking yourself while another owners scoops up that diamond you dropped in the rough. |
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| | #16 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Opening night in the NBA It's finally here! Opening night in the NBA and Scott Skiles is already causing some early-season drama by messing with one of our sleepers. Speaking of sleep, I must have been so excited about today that I am wide awake at 5 a.m. for no reason. Even after watching my Colts get it handed to them last night, my spirits are high and I'm ready to go. Every year it seems like I jump on a sleeper and draft him in every league. This year the big winner is Matt Barnes, while I've also spent the last few days trying to collect "Kelenna Azubuike's" like I'm a 10-year-old girl trying to collect Webkinz (most of you parents will feel me – most of you non-parents will just have a creepy image in your head). If Barnes turns out to be worthless in fantasy leagues this year, all my teams will take a hit. And I will probably receive a lot of email about being wrong. So here's hoping that Buike and Barnes get off to strong starts on Wednesday night. The first ever NBA Season Pass is almost ready for launch and should be available very soon. It's full of cool features, rankings, customizable weekly stats to help you set your lineups, as well as information like Buy Low, Sell High and the Pickup of the Day. Subscribers will also get access to a premium chat each week that should allow you to get your questions submitted and answered quickly. Watch for it! There are three games on the slate for tonight, starting with the Cavs @ Celtics at 8 p.m. on national TV. The Bucks visit the Bulls at 8:30, which has about 20 interesting fantasy story lines developing right now, and then the Blazers visit the Lakers at 10:30. Wow! Game 1 Cavs @ Celtics Not much to say about the Celtics. The Big 3, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins will be out there doing their thing, while Eddie House and Tony Allen should provide some spark off the bench. The most interesting thing about the C's for me is what Tony Allen is going to do. I really like him as a sleeper, if he can stay healthy and get enough minutes behind Ray Allen. For the Cavs, we're still waiting to see who emerges at shooting guard (Delonte West, hopefully) and how Mo Williams is going to hit it off with LeBron James and his new team. Someone asked me yesterday if they should trade Mo for Ray Allen and I said 'no way.' Ray-Ray is a two-cat player these days and could see his minutes continue to dwindle, while Williams does a little bit of everything and has the potential to score and hand out a lot of assists. We didn't see it much in the preseason, so keep your eye on Williams tonight. And if Delonte does get the start, you should probably go ahead and plan on grabbing him off waivers if he's out there. Game 2 Bucks @ Bulls I don't even know where to start here, so I'll just throw out some bullet points about each team. Bucks Andrew Bogut probable for Tuesday with ankle at 80-85 percent Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to start at PF over Charlie Villanueva? Luke Ridnour "iffy" with back injury Ramon Sessions to start at point guard? Charlie Bell to start at point guard? Bucks sign Austin Croshere, release Adrian Griffin It sounds like Bogut will play and should have a huge week as the only fantasy center with four games this week. Oh yeah, speaking of that, if you use Sportsline for your league, don't be fooled by the Week 1 schedule – Monday is included in that thing, so it might look like most of your guys play four games, but it's inaccurate. I assumed everyone had this figured out, but got a few emails from guys yesterday saying they had all these four-game decisions to make, so beware of that. Skiles has supposedly decided on his power forward but isn't sharing his decision. He says he love Moute's defense and savvy, and that he won't hesitate to play him at SG, SF, PF or C. Skiles also is considering starting him over Villanueva, which would be a big blow to a lot of fantasy owners. Moute was taken with one of the last picks (356) in our 30-team league, which bummed me out when I went to pick him up this morning. Regardless of who starts, Villanueva should still see plenty of minutes here. No need to rush out and pick Moute up, but definitely keep an eye on this situation. And if CV comes off the bench, you have my blessing to let him go if there's someone on waivers you really want. Ridnour's sudden back injury is a real buzzkill. I was kicking myself yesterday for forgetting to include him in my "start 'ems" yesterday because he is basically a must-play in weekly leagues with four games. And with his back injury, he's still a good play because you have to think he's good for at least three games…right? If Ridnour's out, Ramon Sessions is the logical choice to start. But Skiles also likes Charlie Bell, although his Achilles injury would likely give the nod to Sessions. Lastly, the Bucks signed Austin Croshere last night and cut Adrian Griffin. No fantasy impacts here, but I'm kind of glad AC is still hanging around. Bucks possible starting five: Ridnour, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Bogut – All are fantasy starts with four games in weekly lineup leagues. Bulls Rose probable despite hip injury Aaron Gray to start at center? Drew Gooden to start at center? Tyrus Thomas to start at power forward? Will Ben Gordon play/start? Kirk Hinrich to start at shooting guard? Deng misses preseason finale with back injury Rose should be good to go and I've been on a mission to land him on as many teams as possible lately. Most folks aren't going for my offers, but a bad game or two this week and that could change. However, I think Rose is going to bust out of the gates in a big way, so if you want to trade for him, do it now. I think his asking price is likely to be twice as high a week from now. Vinny Del Negro can't seem to decide if he wants to start Drew Gooden at center and Tyrus Thomas at PF, or go with Aaron Gray at center and Gooden at PF. Either way, it appears that Joakim Noah is locked into a reserve role, at least for now. Thomas is dealing with a sore ankle, but my guess is that he plays tonight. The shooting guard situation is also a mess. Gordon only played in one preseason game, but should be in uniform tonight. My guess is that Hinrich is the starter for now, but that could change in a couple weeks. In addition, Larry Hughes is out with a shoulder injury, but will be back soon, further clouding the picture. Unless the Bulls make a trade, the SG position could be somewhat of a fantasy wasteland this season. Deng didn't play in the finale, but should be out there tonight. Possible starting five: Rose, Hinrich, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Drew Gooden Game 3 Blazers @ Lakers We'll get our first look at Nicolas Batum and Greg Oden in the starting lineup for Portland, while I'm still expecting relatively big things from Rudy Fernandez off the bench. Rudy is going to be inconsistent, but I imagine he'll put up at least one or two "wow" lines a week. The starting five should be Steve Blake, Brandon Roy, Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and Oden, with Travis Outlaw, Rudy, Channing Frye and Jerryd Bayless starring off the bench. The Lakers have kept their starters under wraps as well, but it should be Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Vladimir Radmanovic, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. It's possible that Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza or Luke Walton could start, but only Phil knows at this point. Jordan Farmar, who had his option picked up yesterday, is a solid fantasy sleeper and should out-produce Fisher this season. Last Minute Decisions Baron Davis is iffy for tomorrow with his finger injury, but it's important to note his Granny will be in attendance. And he loves his Granny. In addition, it's the home opener for the Clippers and they're playing the Lakers. All of that makes me think Baron will play, but I still have him on the bench for now. Hopefully we get some more news on him today. On the flip side, if he doesn't play tomorrow, you'll know that he's really, really hurting. Marcus Camby is not likely to play this week so make sure you've got Chris Kaman active. I think Deron Williams is out for the first two games for the Jazz, so get him benched. Even if he feels good tomorrow and wants to play, I'm betting doctors won't let him. Corey Maggette will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury and won't practice today. The Warriors host the Hornets on Wednesday and my guess is that Maggette will play, but there's no way of knowing that. If he doesn't, Mr. Azubuike looks even better for those of us who own him. Don't forget that Marvin Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Brad Miller and Sebastian Telfair are all suspended. Miller and Telfair will play zero games this week, while Marvin and Melo should each get one a piece. Samuel Dalembert should play through his knee injury, but hasn't had much time on the court thus far. Thaddeus Young sounds good to go for the Sixers despite a sore back. Mike Dunleavy could miss all week for the Pacers, making Marquis Daniels look like an excellent (and sneaky) play this week. Rudy Gay should play for the Grizzlies despite a staph infection and owners have to hope it goes away quickly. Beno Udrih (hip) should start for the Kings tomorrow, while Francisco Garcia's calf injury may or may not keep him sidelined. There seem to be mixed reports on whether or not he'll play, but I'd reserve him this week. Wilson Chandler (knee) hopes to play for the Knicks tomorrow, while Danilo Gallinari (back) is doubtful. Start Chandler at your own risk. The Nets' Josh Boone (heart) is expected to play this week and there are conflicting reports on whether he or Brook Lopez will start. I like Lopez to have a better week, regardless of who gets the call. Rockets point guard Aaron Brooks will be out 1-3 weeks with a sprained ankle. If you were nervous about starting Rafer Alston this week, don't be. But don't play Shane Battier (ankle) this week. Amare Stoudemire should be good to go for the Suns tomorrow despite a pinky finger injury. Chris Wilcox is questionable for the Thunder with a nagging hamstring injury and has already been quite injured this year. Start him at your own risk. And while we're on the Sonics, Johan Petro has looked very good lately. If Wilcox is out, their starting five is probably: Earl Watson/Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Nick Collison and Petro. Music Two of the guys in my rock and roll hoops league will be on TV this week. Parker's band, the Whigs, out of Athens, is on Jimmy Kimmel Wednesday night and they will be opening for Band of Horses in Atlanta on New Year's Eve. Bo's little band, My Morning Jacket, will be playing on Austin City Limits on Saturday. Check it out. Enjoy. |
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| | #17 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Face the Truth I named this column 'Face the Truth' for three reasons. No. 1, because that's what many of us who drafted Charlie Villanueva, Greg Oden or Al Harrington are doing this morning. No. 2, because that's what we may need to do with Oden – The guy appears to be, for lack of a better term, injury prone. And No. 3, obviously, is it's one of my favorite Stephen Malkmus offerings. Before we get to Oden, the NBA Season Pass is up and running! It includes a pair of Top 200 lists (one for keeper leagues), weekly tiering rankings, buy low-sell high, pickup of the day, exclusive chats and many other tools to help you win your league. And the price comes out to something like five cents a day when you break it down. Check it out here. The top story in NBA Land on Wednesday morning is Oden's injury. How ironic is it that the picture we have of him from last year features crutches? He left the arena last night in a golf cart, clutching a new set of them. It's a mid-sprain of his right foot, X-rays were inconclusive and he never even made it out of the tunnel for the second half last night. It's pointless to spend much time on him until we get the official results of today's scheduled MRI, but I don't feel all that confident that he's going to be OK. Watching Oden before the injury last night, I couldn't help but notice how awkward he looks on the court. That is a huge guy with a strange frame and the fact that one of his legs is longer than the other is curious, to say the least. He had the wrist thing in college, his knee blew up before he ever got going last year and he lasted just 13 minutes (and failed to even score a point) before shutting it down last night. Here's to hoping the MRI says his foot is simply sprained and that he returns to the court within the next week. And that appears to be the best-case scenario. If he's stuck in your lineup this week, ride out the storm and start thinking about alternative centers on your waiver wire. For me, I have already scouted the possibilities and it's not all that pretty: Rasho Nesterovic, Mikki Moore and Darko Milicic? Yee Haw! The worst-case scenario would be that something is broken and he could miss several weeks. We should have our answer tonight. Charlie V Charlie Villanueva finished up strong last season and was lucky enough to see Yi Jianlian shipped to Jersey over the summer, apparently clearing the way for him to rack up fantasy points this season. His competition for minutes coming in was basically journeyman Malik Allen and rookie Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. No problem, right? The one thing many of us overlooked was the fact that Scott Skiles is coaching the Bucks, and CV is anything but a typical "Skiles guy." Skiles basically stifled Tyrus Thomas and didn't even consider J.R. Smith when he was with the Bulls, and now it appears he has it out for CV. Villanueva's problem is that he probably cares more about his stats than he does his team, although he'd never admit that publicly. But Skiles knows it and it doesn't sit well with him. Rumors of CV coming off the bench were concerning yesterday, yet there he was in the lineup for tip off. However, he lasted just under nine minutes after getting into early foul trouble and hit 1-of-5 shots. I am not sure where things are heading from here, but I have lost most of the early faith I had in CV. Moute is a defensive specialist and definitely a "Skiles guy." Someone emailed me in the middle of the night and asked if they should drop CV for Marvin Williams (huh?!) and Monta Ellis for Rudy Fernandez (huh?!). Of course that brought the requisite "Run, don't walk" to your wire response. Side note on Monta: I know several websites think he's going to be fine and are even predicting Top 20 fantasy value. I say no way. His ankle was seriously injured and he's a player who relies on his speed. Unless you have an IR in your league, let go and forget about him. Nellie vs. Al Then there was the late-breaking news that Al Harrington has had it up to "here" with Don Nelson and just can't take it anymore. Harrington has since denied demanding a trade, but it sounds like a meeting definitely took place. Fantastic! I was high on Harrington and he was saying all the right things over the summer and had appeared to make up with Nellie. But the two got into it during a preseason game against Lithuania and Harrington defied Nelson's orders and refused to reenter the game. Now their feud is public and I'm guessing the Warriors are desperately trying to move Harrington for a guard. Kirk Hinrich's name has already popped up, which makes perfect sense, doesn't it? Hinrich regains all of his value immediately and Nelson finally gets a guy who will run through a wall for him, while Harrington shows up in Chicago and ruins the day of anyone owning Tyrus Thomas. After watching Ty rack up those glorious 41-plus minutes last night, it's only fitting that Don Nelson would somehow find a way to rain on our parade. I knew Nelson had the power to hurt you if you owned his players, but didn't see him potentially crushing the value of Thomas after one of the most promising opening-night lines I've ever seen. Thanks, Don. Oh well. It's just a rumor, right? Opening Night – The Good Tyrus Thomas' 41 min., 15 pts, 10 reb, two steals and a block were plenty. Kirk Hinrich's strong play off the bench (15 and 7) was a nice surprise. Ben Gordon scored 18 despite the toe injury. Derrick Rose nearly double-doubled and looks like the ROY to me. Luol Deng quietly scored 21 for the Bulls. Michael Redd scored 30 and hit four threes (but did nothing else). Paul Pierce and LeBron James combine for 49 and fill stat sheet. Travis Outlaw's surprise start followed with 18 points and two threes (get him). Rudy Fernandez going for 16 points, 4 assists, 2 steals and 3 treys. Joel Przybilla grabbing 11 boards (if Oden's out, give him a look). Kobe Bryant's easy 23-11-5 line. Jordan Farmar's sneaky line of nine points, six boards, six dimes. Trevor Ariza's 11 points. The Bad Luke Ridnour had just seven points, four assists but at least he played. Andrew Bogut was in early foul trouble and scored just nine points. Richard Jefferson hit just 5-of-17 shots but did score 15. Joakim Noah played less than 20 minutes for six points and six boards. Delonte West started, but six points and two assists isn't going to cut it. Mo Williams' 12 points, two assists isn't either. Brandon Roy starts 0-of-8, finishes 5-of-15 for 14 points. LaMarcus Aldridge going 4-of-12 for eight points and four boards. Andrew Bynum's 4-of-10 shooting, eight points, three rebounds. Lamar Odom's nine points, seven boards – just as expected. The Ugly Charlie Villanueva's four points in nine minutes. Joe Alexander's DNP-CD. Thabo Sefolosha's start at SG for 12 minutes and two points. Aaron Gray's DNP-CD. Ben Wallace's two points and four rebounds. Cut him for Anderson Varejao. Ray Allen & Kevin Garnett combine for 7-of-24 shooting in win. Greg Oden's 13 minutes, 0-of-4 shooting, zero points, five rebounds and injury. Luke Walton's less than 3-minute performance. I started Rose and Thomas in one league last night and am pretty fired up about it. Or, at least I was before learning that the Bulls might be acquiring Harrington. Most of the guys who played well last night don't need much ink here, although Outlaw is probably an automatic pickup if he's going to continue to start. And along with Rose and Thomas, Rudy Fernandez played very well last night. Make sure he's not sitting out there on your wire. As for the "bad" and "ugly," here are some quick thoughts. Ridnour will be fine and is a "Skiles guy," so I'm not worried. Same with Bogut and RJ. I'm also not worried about Roy, Aldridge, Bynum, Ray Allen or Garnett. But everyone else on that list is already a real concern. Noah's not playable right now with all the Thomas love in Chicago, Williams and West should be fine as the smallest starting backcourt in the league, but we've yet to see anything good happen there this year. And Odom's bench role has been a concern for weeks. He'll still produce, but is not going to be the Odom you've grown accustom to. Villanueva should immediately go to your reserves until we see how the rest of this week plays out. That is, unless you can cut him for Marvin Williams. I also imagine many of you will be tempted to cut him for Outlaw, which seems to make perfect sense. I got another email in the middle of the night requesting that Outlaw get his props in the 'Dose, so here it is. Outlaw could put up very nice numbers all year as long as Nate McMillan continues to roll with him. Congratulations if you had him in your lineup last night. Alexander and Gray will get their chance at some point this season, but obviously not right away. Then again, if Skiles is done with CV altogether, Alexander could suddenly become relevant. I forgot how tough of a fantasy coach Skiles is and I'm already annoyed after just 12 hours of NBA action. Ben Wallace has become useless and there is no reason to own him in most leagues. Tonight Here are things to keep an eye on tonight. Elton Brand and Jermaine O'Neal make their Philly/Toronto debuts in Philly. Thaddeus Young will start for the Sixers, while we'll get to see Jose Calderon in a game that counts. Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian start for the Nets against Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. If Simmons has a good game and you need a G/F, grab him quickly. The mighty Hawks face the Magic. I benched Al Horford in the 30-team league this week because of his two games and the fact he goes against Dwight Howard in one of them. We'll see if that was a mistake. The Heat are at New York and I will be keeping an eye on that one. Does Marbury play? Will Marion be better than we think? Will Dwyane Wade stay off the ground? Will Mario Chalmers play as well as Derrick Rose? Is Chris Duhon going to be an acceptable starting point guard? The hapless Pacers are at Detroit. It's Stuckey time, baby! And no Mike Dunleavy for the Pacers should mean good things for Marquis Daniels and Jarrett Jack. Oden owners should also keep an eye on Nesterovic here. Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, John Salmons and the Kings visit the Timberwolves. Look for a Kevin Ollie sighting while Sebastian Telfair is suspended. Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shaquille O'Neal and Matt Barnes visit the Spurs, which is a tough matchup for Barnes. I'm not expecting much tonight. The Bucks are at it again in Oklahoma City. CV – The Return? I doubt it. Jeff Green is being dropped left and right, so it will be interesting to see what he does tonight. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant makes his debut (28 points), Johan Petro comes in hot and Chris Wilcox has been invisible lately. I also can't wait to see what Russell Westbrook does tonight. If he has a good first half, you should probably grab him before he's gone. The Grizzlies visit Houston, where we'll get to see the Rockets' "Big 3" in action. I expect O.J. Mayo to impress tonight, and am hopeful that Rudy Gay's staph infection is no longer an issue. Denver, without Carmelo Anthony, visits Utah, who will be without Deron Williams. I'm expecting a huge line from J.R. Smith, some nice numbers from Linas Kleiza and Nene, while Andrei Kirilenko may have to step up in Deron's absence. The Lakers are at the Clippers. Baron Davis will play with a splint on the finger on his left hand, while Marcus Camby is doubtful. I'm excited to see Al Thornton and Eric Gordon in action. And finally, the Hornets visit the Warriors. It's all good in New Orleans, although I'm still intrigued by James Posey. Watch him. And the Warriors will start answering point guard questions tonight, while you have to wonder what Al Harrington's story will be for this one. We'll soon find out. |
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| | #18 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The Importance of Composure Admit it – you're a little bit concerned right now. Though there were only three games on NBA's opening night, you saw at least one thing from one of your players – and maybe two, or even three things – that made you start to panic. At heady times like these, I am tempted to channel one of the all-time great advice-givers, Frank Ricard (a.k.a. "Frank the Tank") from Old School. The specific piece of wisdom I refer to is what Frank (wearing only tidy whites and shoes) says to his fraternity brothers in the locker room after he shanks the vault off the trampoline, crashing into the ring of fire and setting his cougar suit ablaze: "We can't have anyone FREAK OUT out there, okay!?! We've gotta keep our composure. We've come too far. There's too much to lose [picks up folding chair]. We've gotta just [smashes chair against nearby lockers] keep our composure!" The important thing to remember is that this was just one night of games. Soon it will be two, then three. Even then, we must all collectively remember not to panic. Of course, no matter how many times we repeat that mantra, many of us are on the verge of losing our cool nonetheless. The following outlooks on a handful of panic-inducing players will hopefully help harness a zen-like (non-chair smashing) state of calm: Nothing to freak out about (yet) Andrew Bynum – He looked lost offensively in his first regular season game in over nine months. Clearly frustrated at a lack of touches in the low post, at one point Bynum caught the ball in transition and pulled up for an awkward mid-range jumper, apparently in desperation to get something up towards the rim. The final line wasn't pretty (eight points, three rebounds, three blocks on 4-of-10 shooting), but physically, Bynum looks just fine. The stats are coming soon, so now's your time to buy low. Andrew Bogut – You were probably hoping for something better than nine points and seven rebounds against a small Chicago front court, but Bogut's line (which included a steal and a block) is actually rather encouraging considering that he missed much of the preseason with a sore ankle. Mo Williams – Those who are worried about his assist numbers going down playing with LeBron James can't be thrilled with Williams' opening night line (12 points, three rebounds, two assists), but it's important to remember that the Cavs were playing one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and Williams had the ball in his hands plenty. He may not reach 6.4 apg (his average from last year), but he shouldn't be too far off it, either. Furthermore, you didn't draft him to carry your squad in assists (hopefully). You drafted him because he can score, hand out some assists, grab some steals and hit some threes. He's a shoot-first point guard, and his scoring should be just fine. Time to freak out (in a celebratory way) Derrick Rose – If you drafted him, a light smattering of applause in your general direction. And if for some reason he's available on your waiver wire, go make a transaction. It's probably not time to go streaking up towards the quad out of pure euphoria just yet, as Rose doesn't appear to have three-point range and may encounter some dicey shooting and turnover nights up ahead. Regardless, Rose is the real thing, and should be a rather exciting player to own all year. Tyrus Thomas – It stopped short of monstrous, but this was an extremely encouraging opener for Thomas nonetheless (15 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and a block). Not only was he active around the rim, but he also showed a sweet touch on his outside shot, burying several catch-and-shoot jumpers from a couple steps inside the three-point line. Most importantly, the minutes were there (41) in his first game under new coach Vinny Del Negro. It's still impossible to forget that Thomas has a horrendous habit of following up great games with absolute duds, but so far, so good. Luol Deng – He looked explosive, aggressive and energized on his way to 21 points. After his numbers regressed slightly across the board last season, they should be on the rise once again this year. Rudy Fernandez – "Slick" is the first word that comes to mind, and not in the sense that he just put a sizable dollop of pomade in his hair. Slick in this case refers to the fact that he's a savvy player who knows when and where to find his shot, and has one of the smoothest releases you'll see. And though Fernandez came off the bench, his minutes (29) and production (16 points, four assists, two steals, three threes) were very encouraging. There's a decent chance he's available in your league, and if so, he probably won't stay there for long. Travis Outlaw – He emerged as a solid end-of-the-roster contributor last year, and appears poised to make another leap in productivity this season. The most encouraging sign for Outlaw owners is that he went 2-of-4 on three-pointers in the opener after averaging just 0.5 makes on 1.2 attempts in 2007-08. His mid-range jumper has always been a weapon, but the 24-year-old appears to have finally honed his three-point stroke. Given his potential to contribute in threes, steals and blocks, Outlaw shouldn't be lingering on free agent wires any longer. Time to freak out (in a 'I just set my cougar suit ablaze jumping off a trampoline into a ring of fire' kind of way) Charlie Villanueva – Four points, three rebounds and one assist on 1-of-5 shooting in nine minutes qualifies as the most ghastly line of the night. And it was certainly discouraging to see Villanueva sitting on the bench with a vacant look and a piece of gum dangling out of his mouth during the game's closing minutes. Normally one game is just one game, and yes, he got into early foul trouble, but it's time to be a little bit concerned. The reason: Scott Skiles is falling in love with rookie Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (not in that way). Mbah a Moute doesn't have Villanueva's scoring potential, but he does play great defense, and coaches like that. It's probably too soon to banish Charlie V. to waivers as punishment, as he should eventually settle into twenty-something minutes and somewhere around 12 points and six boards per game, just as he's done the past two years. But for those of us who were expecting significantly more, it appears we may have been duped once again. Kirk Hinrich – Considering that he played just 26 minutes off the bench, his line in this game was actually quite impressive (15 points, seven assists, two three-pointers). However, if you own Hinrich, don't delude yourself into thinking that he can put up 15 and seven all year. He has averaged 15+ ppg in the past, but to do so, he's needed more than 35 minutes a night. Last year, when his minutes dipped to a career-low 32 per game, he averaged 11.6 points and 6.0 assists. This year, his minutes are set for another decline, because the rookie starting ahead of him can play. If you find yourself believing in Hinrich after his strong opening night, there's a chance someone else believes too, in which case you need to see what you can get in a trade for him right away. Quite simply, Derrick Rose isn't going anywhere, and Hinrich's stats, though maybe not an embarrassment, will no doubt be frustrating. Greg Oden – He's sporting a lovely Amish-style beard, but the good news essentially stops there. Oden looked winded and altogether confused in the post, displaying an overall air of dishevelment and discomfort, like a man who had just accidentally milked a bull and drank from the bucket. Making matters more bleak, he's headed for an MRI on an injured foot. It's not time to cut bait just yet, as Oden still has plenty of potential in boards and blocks. But immediately lower your expectations for offense into the seven to eight point range, which is probably where they should have been all along. Now just hope that the MRI comes back clean, so that we can all safely and happily go back to panicking about the other players on our squad. |
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| | #19 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Do You Recognize Lucky No. 7? After posting somewhere around 135 NBA news blurbs after last night's games I kind of feel like just telling you to read the news blurbs to get your Daily Dose and I'll just go to bed. But you all know I'm not that kind of doctor, right? It's now about 5 a.m. and I am struggling to even see straight after tonight's marathon. And with so many games and different story lines, I honestly don't even know where to begin. I also realize that it's probably quite a chore for you all to get through that many game blurbs. I tried to keep them short and sweet, and get to the point. And overall, I think I succeeded in that regard. Now that we've basically blurbed every relevant player, the volumes of player blurbs on game nights will decrease as the season goes on. But I wanted to get something up on the relative players so that when you search your guys for news, there will be something there or you to chew on. In other words, if Chris Paul goes for 21 points and 11 assists in his next game, don't expect to read about in a blurb. That's not really news, right? On to the Dose. I'll give you advance warning that this thing is a marathon column. The Dose's will get much, much shorter next week, but there's just so much to talk about at the start of the season, I just can't make myself leave out any potentially important details. If you have to print this off and take it to lunch (or somewhere else), so be it. And on a side note, I'm shocked that out of all the action we've had so far, Greg Oden is really the only guy that's gone down thus far. Shocking. Wednesday Night's Headlines Al Harrington and Greg Oden dominated the headlines yesterday and there is new news to report. Unless you have been locked in your bedroom with your wife watching an Army Wives marathon, you know Oden is out 2-4 weeks, although the initial reports said 4-6 weeks. Any way you slice it, I don't think we see Oden for three weeks. Harrington overcame his public lambasting of Nellie to start last night, but hit just 5-of-17 shots and missed the final one for the Warriors in a tight game. He was clearly bothered by the fact his comments were made so public, but he probably should have just kept his mouth shut. He looks like a safe play for now, so here's hoping he continues to start and not get traded to the Bulls, where he would break the hearts of Tyrus Thomas owners world wide. On a personal note, I'd like to thank Kelenna Azubuike for making my "Pickup of the Day" call in the NBA Season Pass look so dang good. He had 17 points, a three, three boards, two assists and three steals last night, which was about all I could hope for. Thanks, 'Buike. And if you haven't checked out the Season Pass, it really is a sweet package and only $10. It's constantly updated with new information and I'm getting ready to go enter the "Pickups of the Day" as soon as I post this column. Check it out. I'll also be hosting a live chat on Friday for subscribers, so I'll see you there. Just don't be "that guy" who submits the same question 100 times in a row, please. On the flip side, I'm waiting for the Matt Barnes emails to roll in on Thursday, as he was stifled by the Spurs, a lack of shooting and lack of playing time on Wednesday. I'm not giving up yet, and fully expected him to struggle against San Antonio's D. I'm going to put him on a 7-day probation period and then give up if he hasn't put up at least one "wow" game by then. We'll see. Wednesday's email and chat were dominated by the Charlie Villanueva saga, but he bounced back last night with 20 points, 12 boards, two blocks and a three. Hopefully you hung on through the night before cutting him for junk. But if you cut him for Marvin Williams or a similar player, you're still fine. I don't understand why people are cutting Marvin, as he seems destined for a very solid campaign. We'll see. Wednesday Studs and Duds Raptors vs. Sixers Jamario Moon and Andrea Bargnani were dreadful for the Raptors. I have little use for either player, but am still intrigued by Bargnani's upside. If you own Moon and Azubuike is available, I wouldn't hesitate to make the move. Nellie only played seven guys last night and 'Buike looks like a real player. Unless Nellie really pulls a fast one here, 'Buike, much like Rudy, can't fail. Chris Bosh was huge, Jermaine O'Neal and Jose Calderon were solid and Raptors punked the Sixers at home. The Sixers were pretty disappointing in general, although Samuel Dalembert's 17 boards and two blocks were nice. Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young were all OK, but not great in the loss. Nets vs. Wizards Josh Boone and Bobby Simmons were pretty bad for the Nets, while Yi Jianlian played very well. If you own Boone and Brook Lopez is available, I'd make the move despite the fact Boone is the starter. I don't think he will be in month. And as expected, Antonio Daniels didn't do much despite starting for the Wizards. He burned many of last year and we won't be fooled again. Vince Carter was nice, Devin Harris was serviceable, while the Wizards didn't really make much noise anywhere. Andray Blatche was somewhat effective off the bench and deserves a watchful eye. Hawks vs. Magic Josh Smith: 17 points, 10 boards, four steals, five blocks, one three Dwight Howard: 22 points, 15 boards, five steals, five blocks Wow. Those are two of the best lines you'll ever see from the same game. Howard hit just 6-of-13 free throws and committed four turnovers, but you knew he'd do that coming in. Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu all struggled, while Mickael Pietrus somehow scored 20. Maybe I underestimated him, or maybe he got lucky while his team was struggling. I don't expect him to score more than 15 points very often. Mike Bibby struggled for the Hawks (but will bounce back), while Al Horford had a solid line against Howard and Joe Johnson played well. The Hawks get Marvin Williams back next game, which will send Maurice Evans back to the bench. Mo was solid with eight points, eight boards and two threes, but that's all he got in 42 minutes. Kings vs. Wolves The Kings lost a tough one despite 12 points, 14 boards and six blocks from Spencer Hawes. Wow! Trade him right now, as he's going to take a hit (like it or not) when Brad Miller returns from suspension. Kevin Martin was solid, Beno Udrih produced despite a hip injury and John Salmons answered the call as a super sleeper with a big line. I was high on Salmons and Hawes coming into the week, and you hopefully had them in your lineup. Jason Thompson will be a hot wire pickup today after his 18 & 10 double-double, but make sure you're not cutting a solid to get him. This was just one game, but Mikki Moore is terrible. JT is going to have a nice year. Al Jefferson was great for the Wolves, while the rest of the team was nothing special. They still won and Kevin Love flirted with a double-double. He's going to be real inconsistent, but might be worth a flier in a deep league. Pacers vs. Pistons I caught some flack for having Danny Granger rated so highly in the guide, but the kid had 33 points and contributed in every single category. Love him! Troy Murphy also quietly put up a huge line (13 pts, 15 bds, 3 blks, 2 3's) and I have said all along he will flourish at PF this year. Mike Dunleavy likely won't be back for at least a couple weeks, so Marquis Daniels is still an option (12 points). Tayshaun Prince, who I'm very high on right now, led the Pistons with 19 points and a little bit of everything, while Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton played pretty well. Rasheed Wallace was very quiet and might be all year with the mini-youth movement going on in Detroit. Amir Johnson had six points, six boards and three blocks, and is only going to get better. Meanwhile, my main man, Rodney Stuckey, quietly had eight points, four assists and four fouls in just 16 minutes. Concerning? Yes. Am I cutting him? No. Like Barnes, he's on a 7-10 day probationary period and then I'll make a decision. I didn't start him with just two games this week anyway. Suns vs. Spurs Steve Nash had 13 & 13, erasing fears that he will stink under Terry Porter, while Shaq and Amare Stoudemire played well. Leandro Barbosa scored 18, while Boris Diaw and Raja Bell were not good. I'd be tempted to drop Bell right now if I owned him, but would give Boris another couple chances. Barnes wasn't great, but again, this was the Spurs. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan each scored 32, but Duncan had just six boards and no blocks. Shaq and Amare shut him down. Roger Mason scored 12 to go along with four boards and three assists, and is worth keeping an eye on. Bucks vs. Thunder Michael Redd scored 20 and hit three treys, but did nothing else. Trade him, as his name alone should bring you a more effective fantasy player. Luke Ridnour was awful again, but I bet he gets it turned around soon if his back's OK. And if you were ready to pick up Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, forget about it after last night's zero-point, five-board performance. I already told you about Charlie V, but I'm still not convinced he's going to get along with Scott Skiles for very long. The Thunder looked terrible, with Kevin Durant, Earl Watson, Nick Collison, Johan Petro and Jeff Green all stinking it up, but I think they just choked under the pressure of playing in OKC for the first time. Russell Westbrook showed some promise (13 pts, 4 asts, a three) and could be starting sooner than later. And if you love Durant, now is the time to make a move on him. Chris Wilcox finally showed his head and played fairly well, but he'll be pouting soon if he keeps coming off the bench. Green is being cut left and right, but I bet he'll be a hot wire pickup in the next few weeks when he gets some confidence in his game. Heat vs. Knicks Dwyane Wade looked very good, Udonis Haslem had a strong double-double, Shawn Marion played to a serviceable level and rookie Mario Chalmers stole the show with 17-7-8 and two 3-pointers. He's probably gone by now, but he sure looks like a guy you want to own. Michael Beasley was disappointing, but he'll be fine. Marion double-doubled and stole some of Beasley's boards, but it remains if to be seen if the two can play together and produce at the same time. We'll see. And if Haslem is available in your league, he looks like a double-double machine waiting to happen. Oh, and Chris Quinn is completely out of the rotation, as in DNP. Cut him. The Knicks' beat writers are blasting Mike D'Antoni for embarrassing Stephon Marbury by not even playing him last night. Danilo Gallinari and Mardy Collins played in front of him for God's sake. Personally, I'm not sure D'Antoni owes Marbury a warning that he is not going to use him. The Knicks don't really want to buy him out, so they're just going to sit on him. Maybe he'll end up at home like Jamaal Tinsley, but at this point, who cares? Cut him and move on if you own him. David Lee was great, but is playing PF. If you're waiting for him to qualify at center, don't hold your breath. Zach Randolph was solid, Jamal Crawford scored 29 and it's hard to believe the Knicks were thinking about benching him last week. Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson and Wilson Chandler were all solid, but will be inconsistent fantasy players. Pick them up at your own risk. I actually trust Nate the most of the three. And Chris Duhon had nine points, three dimes, a steal and two threes. That's about what you should expect from him at this point. Grizzlies vs. Rockets Marc Gasol had a sweet 12 & 12 double-double to go along with two blocks, Rudy Gay was solid and O.J. Mayo struggled to just 10 points. He's going to be fine. Don't do anything stupid with him after his poor outing. Hakim Warrick appears to have been rendered useless by Darrell Arthur (11 & 15 in 27 minutes), so feel free to make that switch if you want. Darko Milicic was awful and Mike Conley had a quiet night. Give him a couple more games before giving up. Rafer Alston struggled but is a safe bet with Aaron Brooks sidelined right now, while Yao Ming, Ron Artest and Tracy McGrady all played fairly well. Actually, T-Mac's line leaves a lot to be desired and he's going to miss a lot of games this year. But you might as well run him out there while he's still healthy. Luis Scola had a solid double-double as well. Lakers vs. Clippers The Lakers really look unbeatable right now. Stellar defense and a great first and second unit mean serious trouble for the competition. Jordan Farmar is quietly producing in several cats and will only get better. Stash him away if you can. Trevor Ariza is also playing well and worth a look in deep leagues (11 points, some boards and threes in both games). Lamar Odom, on the other hand, looks like a lost dog and had just six points, four boards and three assists. Don't cut him, but get him reserved for now. And for the record, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol look just fine together, although they didn't get blurbs last night. As for the mighty Clippers? As my boys in Dinosaur Jr. like to say, "What a mess." Baron Davis played but wasn't great, while the rest of the team looked a lot like Odom. Chris Kaman? Terrible. Eric Gordon? Worse. Ricky Davis? Wasteland. Tim Thomas and Al Thornton actually played decently, but that team is a wreck. And things will get worse before they get better. Especially when Baron starts saying things like "I can't believe I signed with such a pathetic and poorly run organization." You know it's coming. And throwing Marcus Camby into this mix with no practice time is not going to be pretty either. Nuggets vs. Jazz Allen Iverson had a weirdly quiet game with 18 points and eight assists, but hardly anything else. Nene struggled before fouling out and Linas Kleiza killed those of you who played him because he was starting for Melo. Kenyon Martin was solid and Anthony Carter had a surprisingly nice line, although we've seen that before. Feel free to take a flier, but he's going to be very up and down. J.R. Smith, on the other hand, was great. He scored 17, grabbed five boards and hit three 3-pointers. A big year is coming for him, I just know it. As for the Jazz, they were without Deron Williams and got strong lines from Mehmet Okur, Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko. AK-47 was sweet off the bench last night, but to me that's a great indication that it's time to sell high! Hornets vs. Warriors The Hornets looked exactly like we thought they would and are one of the safest fantasy team's out there. James Posey was nothing more than a 3-point specialist last night, so we'll have to see if that continues. Chris Paul and David West were typical and Tyson Chandler went for 13-16 and three blocks! He averaged just 1.1 blocks last year, so this will hopefully start a new trend for him. Stephen Jackson played all 48 minutes but ran out of juice at the end, missing his last seven shots. I had him ranked very high in the guide and Nellie appears to be ready to ride him into the ground – and that's all good with me. Corey Maggette looked great, Andris Biedrins played well in foul trouble (although didn't block a shot and missed a bunch of free throws), while I already covered Azubuike and Harrington. And if you own DeMarcus Nelson, you saw the line already. Almost nothing in 13 minutes besides starting at PG. Marcus Williams didn't even get off the bench, but he's eventually going to emerge. No reason to own him right now though. Thursday Charlotte @ Cleveland, Houston @ Dallas and New Orleans @ Phoenix. I have the night off and will be watching the games somewhere in the ATL with Rick Kamla. Believe me; I will enjoy having the night off. |
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| | #20 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| T-Mac, Version 0.6 For reasons that are not altogether apparent, basketball pundits love to use the term "Big Three." In fact, people are so fond of the phrase that they sometimes create Big Threes regardless of whether or not they actually exist. Coming into this season, the incumbent Big Three resided in Boston, and considering that Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett just won the NBA title, it's not really worth arguing whether or not they should really be called a Big Three, even if an aging Ray Allen is clearly less productive at this point than Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. www.bostonceltics.ws Since having just one Big Three is not possibly enough, triumvirate-lovers have seized the opportunity to brand a new Big Three in Houston, consisting of Ron Artest, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. Based on name recognition, there's no questioning this trio's validity. The only problem is that one member of the three isn't mathematically upholding his part of the bargain. If Yao (25.5 ppg through two games) has been 1.0 out of three and Artest (22.5 ppg) has been 1.0 out of three, McGrady's contributions through two games (16.0 ppg on 35.7% shooting) have amounted to more like 0.6. Somehow, The Big 2.6 doesn't quite have the same ring to it (although it does sound like a rather impressive piece of computer software). McGrady will no doubt be better than what he's shown thus far, but how much better? Last season he averaged 21.6 ppg on 41.6% shooting, and with a significant portion of the offense now running through Artest, it's easy to see McGrady's scoring average dipping below 20 ppg for the first time since 1999-00. Add in the injury risk and decreased accuracy and it's clear that McGrady's name recognition now significantly outweighs his actual statistical worth. If you're a McGrady owner and someone's willing to pay up based on the name, you should be more than willing to listen. As for the other 2.0 of The Big 2.6, Artest looked tremendous in scoring 29 points with seven boards on Thursday, and could be on the verge of a career year during his honeymoon season in Houston. It hasn't taken Yao long to round into peak form (30 points, 13 boards on 11-of-15 from the field and 8-of-8 from the line on Thursday) and if you have him on your team, you can only hope this is the year he cracks 57 games (and well beyond) for the first time since 2004-05. The talent hasn't diminished in the least; the only unanswerable question is if yet another bone in his leg is waiting to give way. As the Raptors fans of the world ponder whether or not Jose Calderon, Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh can plausibly be called "The Big 2.2," here's a look at some other key storylines from Thursday night: Brooks was here Expected to be out 1-3 weeks with an ankle bruise, Rockets backup point guard Aaron Brooks surprisingly suited up Thursday and not only made a significant contribution (14 points, five assists in 20 minutes), but may have ushered in a point guard platoon in Houston. While Rafer Alston (three points, five assists in 29 minutes) watched most of the fourth quarter from the bench, it was Brooks playing the key minutes down the stretch as the Rockets held on to win. Alston still holds the starting job and the majority of the timeshare, but the speedy if slightly reckless Brooks isn't going to disappear. If you do own Alston, retain some faith and don't do anything hasty, but also watch the split of minutes closely when the Rockets play the Thunder on Saturday. Brown does very little for you The Bobcats opened their season Thursday with positively wretched results (79 points on 33.8% shooting as a team), and the immediate temptation will be to begin spinning theories that Larry Brown is going to kill a significant amount of fantasy mojo in Charlotte. As Hedley Lamarr said in Blazing Saddles, "Be still, Taggart. Be still." This was just one game, albeit a hideous one. Jason Richardson (24 points in the opener), Gerald Wallace (13 points, five rebounds) and Emeka Okafor (seven points, 12 rebounds) should all be fine. Meanwhile, Raymond Felton owners are probably panicking after his 1-for-10, five-point, five-assist opener, especially with D.J. Augustin (12 points, two assists, four turnovers) looming as a relatively productive presence off the bench. Once again, the operative word right now in Charlotte is patience. If you own Felton, you're better served hoping/assuming he'll get it turned around as opposed to pedaling him while his value is low. Status Quo in the Big D After our first regular season look at Rick Carlisle's Mavericks, it appears that very little has changed from a fantasy standpoint in Dallas. Dirk is Dirk, Josh Howard – all off-court issues aside – is poised for a big year, and Jason Kidd had a nice all-around line (seven points, seven rebounds, 12 assists and four steals) but attempted only six shots. If for some reason you were still harboring hopes of 13-15 ppg from Kidd this year, it's time to realize that you're probably getting something in the vicinity of 10 per game. Meanwhile, Antoine Wright started at shooting guard, but Jason Terry got the starter's minutes (31) and production (15 points, four assists). Wright played just 17 minutes, and looks like he's only the starter in name because Carlisle wants Terry's energy off the bench. Spencer for hire Fantasy owners have no doubt taken notice of Spencer Hawes in Sacramento after his huge opening game of 12 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks on Wednesday, and while conventional wisdom would suggest that Hawes' value will plummet after Brad Miller's five-game suspension ends, there's a possibility that Hawes and Miller could play together and both be productive after Miller returns. The only potential foil here is Jason Thompson, the little-known Kings lottery pick who busted out for 18 points and 10 boards in the opener. If Hawes and Thompson both stay hot, it's going to be hard for all three to be productive after Miller's suspension ends. In sum, it's a messy situation, but one with more than a little bit of potential. If you own Hawes, watch his next four games as a starter closely, and hope that Reggie Theus values his contributions as much as you do. If you own Miller, you have to hope that five games isn't enough to make Theus forget about what the incumbent can do. The next showcase for Sacramento comes Friday night in Miami. Quick Hits, Part One: Mo Williams owners can exhale after seeing the Cavs' new point guard produce a vintage line of 17 points, four rebounds and seven assists in the win over Charlotte… Tyson Chandler (ankle) was a late scratch from Thursday night's game, but the injury doesn't sound severe. Of more concern is the sprained ankle suffered by Peja Stojakovic, which sounds like it has the potential to keep him out a while… Ben Wallace had 10 points and five blocks on Thursday, but his utter lack of involvement in Cleveland's offense (four total points through two games) makes him a very difficult player to own. Quick Hits, Part Deux: There was a brief Morris Peterson sighting Thursday (20 points, four threes, two steals), but stay away unless you're in a very deep league… Rotoworld favorite Matt Barnes had another quiet game (eight points, two threes in 26 minutes). Time to plant him on the bench and give him a couple games to get it going… Steve Nash had 24 points, four rebounds, nine assists (and seven turnovers), and is proving that he's more than capable of putting up huge numbers even in Terry Porter's half court-oriented offense. Up Ahead: Just seven games on the schedule for Halloween night, but no shortage of intriguing situations to follow. Even though they only scored 71 points in a narrow loss to Houston Wednesday, Memphis looks like an improved team and is loaded with fantasy potential, with waiver wire sensations Darrell Arthur and Marc Gasol both attempting to back up double-doubles from opening night while the high-upside backcourt of Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo should improve after a disappointing opener. Elsewhere, rookie point guard Derrick Rose gets a huge test, and teammate Tyrus Thomas – the king of the letdown game – has a chance to prove his legitimacy as the Bulls take on Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett (yes, that's right, The Big Three) in Boston. www.bostonceltics.ws |
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| | #21 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Draft Day Delights LeBron. Kobe. CP3. DWade. When it comes to the biggest names in the NBA, these are among the brightest. No other description is needed. One name says it all. It's not surprising then that these players are among the ones fantasy basketball owners are hoping to snare this season as the foundations for what they hope will be a run to their league title. When it comes to compiling the strongest possible roster, you want to have a superstar anchor in your corner. It's a proven model of success. That was definitely the case in the recent National Fantasy Basketball Championship event. Hosted by the founders of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and National Fantasy Football Championship, this national online event is in its third season. Teams paid a $650 entry fee to have the chance to win their 12-team league title (worth $3,000) and compete for the national title (worth $3,500). The drafts for that event were completed last weekend and the results were, as always, interesting. Here are the Top 10 players in our drafts based on their Average Draft Position: 1. LeBron James 2. Chris Paul 3. Kobe Bryant 4. Amare Stoudamire 5. Chris Paul 6. Dwayne Wade 7. Dirk Nowitzki 8. Elton Brand 9. Kevin Garnett 10. Josh Smith Paul's run at the MVP award last season has cemented his standing as the game's premier young point guard. That elevated his draft stock considerably in the eyes of our owners. Elton Brand's return to health and move to the Sixers gave him added appeal and the versatility provided by Atlanta's do-everything forward, Josh Smith, made him a popular pick as well. Smith wasn't the only young talent the NFBBC owners expect to blow up in a big way this season. Indiana forward Danny Granger has All-Star talent in the eyes of many NBA observers and his ADP (16) reflected that belief with our NFBBC owners as well. Rudy Gay (21.4), Kevin Martin (26) and Jose Calderon (29.4) are three other young players the NFBBC owners believe are poised to take big steps forward this season. Paul was the point guard our participants held most dear but he wasn't the only one selected early. Main other top playmakers in the game were popular targets as well: Steve Nash (ADP of 11.8) Deron Williams (12.2) Baron Davis (17) Jose Calderon (29.4) Jason Kidd (35.6) Chauncey Billups (35.6) Devin Harris (45.8) Andre Miller (51.8) Another four went among the following 20 picks: Mike Bibby (ADP of 56.4) Mo Williams (56.6) T.J. Ford (62.4) Tony Parker (63.4) That's nine point guards taken among the first 50 picks in the NFBBC drafts and 13 selected among the first 70 picks. It's clear our owners wanted to secure at least one in the first few rounds of their drafts. The other position where owners were aggressive in their drafting was center. The center position lacks a large number of dynamic players this season so securing a top center was viewed as another important piece of the title-building formula. Seventeen players with center eligibility were chosen among the first 75 picks in the NFBBC drafts. They were: Amare Stoudamire (ADP of 3.6) Dwight Howard (11.8) Al Jefferson (13.4) Yao Ming (23) Pau Gasol (30.6) Marcus Camby (31.2) Andrew Bynum (40) Chris Kaman (50) Andrew Bogut (59) Mehmet Okur (59.2) Andris Biedrins (59.4) Emeka Okafor (60.4) Greg Oden (60.8) Al Horford (62) Rasheed Wallace (65.4) Jermaine O'Neal (65.8) Tyson Chandler (66.2) That's nearly ¼ of the first 75 picks being directed at the position in the paint. It's clear our owners believed addressing that position early was pivotal in establishing a strong foundation for their NFBBC teams. Everyone loves a good rookie and this year was no exception. The top picks in the draft (as well as Oden, who is technically a rookie this season) were pursued aggressively as well. Michael Beasley (ADP of 60.8) Greg Oden (60.8) Derrick Rose (72.6) O.J. Mayo (81) Among the other things that caught my eye: *Kevin Martin with an ADP of 26. The Kings' young shooting guard is a talent but while Martin was being taken early in the third round, other owners were getting Michael Redd and his proven SG production 21 picks later. *Charlie Villanueva with an ADP of 109.8. Villanueva is one of the hottest sleeper picks this year and he certainly made his owners feel good with a 20-point/12-rebound performance Wednesday night. But in order to justify his ADP, he'll need to get 35 minutes a night and put up 16+ points and get 8+ rebounds a game. Given his significant defensive failings and questionable motivation, he may not get those minutes on a consistent basis with Scott Skiles as his head coach. *T.J. Ford is a possible value pick. Ford didn't fall far as his ADP indicated. But here's a little something to remember about Ford – when healthy, he's a proven Top 10 PG in this league and whenever he's gone to a new team that team has gotten better. The key with Ford is his health, but if he can stay healthy, he could drop 15 points and nine assists a night, making him a far more valuable PG to own than someone like Mo Williams or Devin Harris (who I like a lot), for example. All of this should make for an interesting NBA season. Our owners have their eyes on the league and national prizes. Now it's time to find out if their Draft Day strategies will pay big dividends. |
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| | #22 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Who Shoots? J.R.! Waiver Wired should usually show up earlier than Sunday, but due to some early-season issues, Sunday it is. I've decided to break it down into Tiers. These Tiers should not be confused for our regular Tiers, which are used in the Season Pass and Draft Guide. This set of Tiers is simply based on fantasy free agents from week to week. Tier 1 should include some guys who have already been snagged in your league. But if a Tier 1 player is still available, you should probably do what you can to pick him up. Tier 2 players are attractive options in deeper leagues and are likely available in many leagues. Tier 3 players are the ones who are still flying below the radar and may have some value in the future. They're also guys you might be able to use currently in a deep league. As with any list like this, owners must use careful judgment when deciding which player to cut in order to make a move. Each roster is unique and it's impossible to provide a perfect list of "cuttables," but here are some guys you'll be thinking about letting go. Should be safe to cut Sean May, Amir Johnson, Eric Gordon, DeSagana Diop, Hakim Warrick, Darko Milicic, Bobby Simmons, Danilo Gallinari, Eddy Curry Cut at your own risk Rodney Stuckey, Larry Hughes, Ben Gordon, Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, Erick Dampier, Mike Conley, Earl Watson, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, Grant Hill, Joakim Noah Many of these players could very well be on this list next week, and just because they're on this list doesn't mean I am recommending they be cut. I held on to Stuckey in many leagues and found other players to let go in order to stock up on Stephon Marbury. But Stuckey was my lowest producer in several cases, and these guys are all underperforming. Check out the NBA Season Pass for weekly position rankings, Top 200 rankings for overall and keeper leagues, subscriber only chats, as well as the Oracle system that will help you set the correct lineup each week. Guards Tier 1 Rudy Fernandez, J.R. Smith, Mario Chalmers, Jason Terry, Anthony Carter, Kelenna Azubuike, Cuttino Mobley, Stephon Marbury, Jordan Farmar Rudy – Getting time off the bench right now and producing. Smith – 3-point bomber, Sixth Man of Year candidate, rebounding, stealing, scoring Mario – He's going to be up and down, but the upside is massive Terry – Still finding ways to get it done off bench Carter – Playing at a high level, if you already own him, sell high 'Buike – My main man, but already getting inconsistent minutes from Nellie Mobley – Looking good right now, but takes a hit when Clips get healthy Marbury – End is near in NYC. If he lands in the right place, fantasy gold Farmar – Quiet in last one, inconsistent off bench, but intriguing Tier 2 Nate Robinson, Mickael Pietrus, Marquis Daniels, Daniel Gibson, Kirk Hinrich, Nick Young, Michael Finley Nate – Sixth man, but D'Antoni love him and he's racking up stats Pietrus – Off to solid start, scoring more than I saw coming Daniels – Hasn't produced yet, but opportunity there w/ Dunleavy injury Gibson – Averaging 15 points and two 3-pointers after 3 games Hinrich – Coming off bench, will take hit when Larry Hughes returns Young – Averaging 16.5 ppg, 1.5 threes, 1 steal off bench Finley – Should help fill in while Manu Ginobili is out Tier 3 Aaron Brooks, Russell Westbrook, Roger Mason, Kyle Lowry, C.J. Watson Brooks – One huge game, could emerge as Rafer Alston struggles Westbrook – Will get better every week, but may take time to emerge Mason – Looking good in Manu's absence in San Antonio Lowry – Looks more effective than Mike Conley thus far Watson - Suddenly getting minutes, watch him Forwards Tier 1 Marvin Williams, Tyrus Thomas, Darrell Arthur, Charlie Villanueva, Matt Barnes, James Posey, Thaddeus Young, Tim Thomas, Yi Jianlian, Wilson Chandler, Jeff Green, Travis Outlaw, Francisco Garcia, Jason Thompson, Quentin Richardson Marvin – Awful in debut, but it's going to get much better Tyrus – 2-of-22 in last two games, but Del Negro sticking with him Arthur – Solid in two starts, hottest pick up fantasy hoops? Villanueva – Still don't trust him under Skiles, but playing well Barnes – Just when hope was fading, breakout game Saturday Posey – 3-point specialist, but gets a big boost with Peja Stojakovic injury Young – Big scoring line vs. Hawks, but not many categories Tim Thomas – Takes a hit if Camby is really playing on Monday Yi – Zilch on Saturday, will be inconsistent at times Chandler – Likely more valuable than Q-Rich despite bench role Green – Better in Game 2, should continue to improve Outlaw – Starting for now, may be short-term investment Garcia – Should get plenty of run, but out two more weeks Thompson – Likely crowded out upon Brad Miller's return Q-Rich – Streaky, but historically performs under D'Antoni Tier 2 Jamario Moon, Vladimir Radmanovic, Andrea Bargnani Moon – Lack of offense concerning, but potential is there Vlad Rad – Starting and scoring for Lakers, but for how long? Bargnani – The textbook definition of inconsistent thus far Tier 3 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Walter Herrmann, Chris Andersen, Jared Dudley, Jerry Stackhouse, Linas Kleiza M & M – Defensive specialist and probably nothing more Herrmann – Suddenly on fire for Detroit, watch him Andersen – Gets a boost if Kenyon Martin misses time, 'blocks-r-us' Dudley – Starting for Bobcats, but not necessarily worth owning Stackhouse – Starting for Dallas currently, but not producing Kleiza – Cold start, but could come on soon Centers Tier 1 Nene, Marc Gasol, Udonis Haslem, Drew Gooden, Spencer Hawes Nene – Should be owned in all leagues while healthy Pau's Bro – Looks like real deal, 10 pts, 8 bds, 2 blks per should happen Haslem – Points, boards and center eligibility, but not much else Gooden – Center eligibility huge, 20 rebounds Saturday night Hawes – Likely owned in your league, but I say sell high Tier 2 Josh Boone, Brook Lopez, Joel Przybilla Boone – Starting, but for how long over Lopez? Lopez – Playing well off bench, should eventually start Przybilla – Should rack up boards/blocks for injured Oden Tier 3 Kevin Love, Andray Blatche Love – Playing well and should get better every week Blatche – May eventually get more minutes than Etan Thomas |
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| | #23 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| The Answer Is Detroit The Big Trade The writing of the Daily Dose was interrupted by the news that the Nuggets will trade Allen Iverson to the Pistons for Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess and Cheick Samb. Here is what I had started to write, backed up by what I wrote after the deal was announced. Rick Kamla just did a segment on his fantasy hoops show (once a week, Mondays this year) on NBA TV and said he's concerned about Allen Iverson this year, and he's not alone. I'm right there with him and had him ranked fairly low in the Guide, which was another thing I did that raised eyebrows. But he was dissed by his coach and not made a team captain, did not get a new contract, has an ankle injury and is said to be on the trading block. AI is playing good soldier and not saying much, but I get the feeling he is just walking through the motions and biding his time. In fact, he's now telling friends that he thinks he'll be traded to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, which seems to make sense. And just as I finished writing that, news of the trade broke. My initial thoughts are: 1. Does AI play point or shooting guard? Probably some of both, but unless Rodney Stuckey is given the starting point guard job, this could be bad news for him. And that's a big question here, with two rules of thought. 1. The move is being made to clear the way for Stuckey to start right now. Or, 2. The trade is being made to make the Pistons better right now and Stuckey's need for minutes has nothing to do with it. Obviously, I am hoping that they start Stuckey and turn Tayshaun Prince or Rip Hamilton into the sixth man, but this could obviously go either way. We should have our answer soon, so just hang onto Stuckey for now. 2. What does McDyess do to Nene's value? Could hurt him some, but Kenyon Martin is probably more at risk of splitting time with McDyess. Nene should continue to play center. And does this trade say anything about the concern with K-Mart's hamstring injury? I doubt it, but you never know. ESPN's Ric Bucher is also reporting that McDyess may never even report to Denver because he "doesn't want to move." So I guess that means there's a possibility that McDyess would be bought out, clear waivers and return to Detroit? Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson should both see a boost in minutes, at least in the short term. 3. Who starts at shooting guard for the Nuggets? Anthony Carter just officially became useless, while J.R. Smith possibly just moved into the starting lineup. Or it could be Linas Kleiza or Dahntay Jones. Regardless of who starts, this just means more minutes for Smith, so do not get rid of him right now. In fact, try to trade for him before the trade becomes official. Even if he comes off the bench, Smith will be the guy getting the starter's minutes. 4. As for Iverson, I think this move will save his fantasy season. He really looked as if he didn't care in Denver and wasn't putting forth a ton of effort. So if you own AI, this should be great news for you, although Detroit's not really known for showcasing guys with crazy offensive skills. But at least he'll be trying as hard as he can every night. As soon as I post this column I need to go figure out if I'm still starting Stuckey for his four games this week. Hmmm. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. Saturday's 14-game schedule was the busiest Saturday we'll see all year. Sunday featured two games, some injuries and some surprises. Here's a rundown of league injuries and then we'll take a look at some of this weekend's tidbits. Doctor and the Medics Sean May – conditioning – cut him Michael Redd – ankle – He says it's a high sprain, need more info Luke Ridnour – back – Bucks off until Wednesday, could play Larry Hughes – shoulder – Could return this week. Bench for now Shawn Marion – nose – Mysterious broken nose, but should play Baron Davis – hip/finger – Doubtful for Monday, risky start this week Marcus Camby – heel – Said Saturday he would play tonight. Risky start Peja Stojakovic – ankle – Swelling badly, could miss a few more games Tyson Chandler – ankle – Sounds likely to play this week Deron Williams – ankle – Targeting Weds., gut feeling says he'll play Francisco Garcia – calf – Out this week and maybe next Brad Miller – susp. – Out two more games, will play 2 this week Eddy Curry – knee – How do you get hurt sitting on the bench? Kenyon Martin – hamstring – Iffy for Wednesday, risky start Rasho Nesterovic – ankle – Questionable - Foster rises if Rasho's out Mike Dunleavy – knee – Not likely to play this week. Start Daniels Shane Battier – ankle – No timeline, don't expect any miracles Fabricio Oberto – heart – No timetable, no value Manu Ginobili – ankle – Targeting Dec., now is time to pick him up Sebastian Telfair – susp. – Returns Wed., Foye struggling – sneaky play Greg Oden – foot – Out. Keep him benched or trade him Injury Notes I'm trying desperately to trade Greg Oden in a league that is, ironically, based in Portland, but can't find any takers. Even Kelenna Azubuike for Oden was rejected. If the folks in Portland feel that strongly about not owning Oden, I'm not sure it bodes well for the rest of us. Hopefully he comes back in a week or so and proves everyone wrong. Redd is calling his ankle sprain "high," but we've yet to hear anything from a doctor. He walked off under his own power and I've seen much worse ankle sprains and I think this one could go either way. No updates out of Milwaukee yet, so we'll have to see what happens. Bench him for now. Ridnour is iffy for Wednesday and the Ramon Sessions emails are rolling in. Here's the deal. I intentionally left Sessions off of yesterday's Waiver Wired column. I knew he was going to post numbers yesterday (and he did – 18 points, seven boards, eight assists, three steals), but in my mind Ridnour is still Skiles' guy. Maybe I'm naïve for thinking that Sessions isn't going to get a starting look from Skiles, but my sources in Milwaukee have told me consistently for a year now that Sessions is not a starting point guard and that's what I'm going with. Now, did he look like a point guard in those 10 games late last season when he one many fantasy owners a championship after doing nothing in the previous 60 games? Yep. And did he look like a point guard on Sunday night? Yep. If you want to dump Ridnour, who has not played well this year because of the back injury (and the fact that he's Luke Ridnour), be my guest. And if you want to pick Sessions up in hopes that he'll keep the starting job, go for it. It could happen. Personally, I'm going to stick with Ridnour and see what happens, but there's no doubt it could come back to bite me. We'll see. I'm officially worried about Dunleavy's knee. He's a tough call right now on whether to hold or trade. If you hold him and he goes under the knife, you lose. If you trade him and he plays, you probably lose, as you won't get full value on him. The best thing to do right now is probably just hang on and see what happens. Let's just hope for the best. I'm starting Camby and Deron this week, and benching Baron Davis. For what it's worth. Week 1 Observations I caught some heat about having Danny Granger ranked so high in the Draft Guide and it's early, but he had a huge week and is currently No. 3 in eight-category leagues. I'm pretty fired up about the Top 10 in general thus far, as it's peppered with guys like Chris Paul (1), Josh Smith (2), Joe Johnson (4), Jose Calderon (5) and Dwight Howard (7). Other interesting rankings after Week 1 include Troy Murphy at 11, Stephen Jackson at 15, Anthony Carter at 18, Anthony Parker at 20, Spencer Hawes at 28, Nate Robinson at 33 and Roger Mason at 38. Some of those guys are going to be there at the end and many won't. I'm worried about the Al Harrington situation, but at least he's playing at a high level right now. Let's just hope he doesn't go to Chicago, which would not be good for anyone. Matt Barnes turned it around after a rough start and posted a big line on Saturday. I own him in nearly every league I'm in and was starting to lose hope after a couple early duds. And while one good game doesn't mean the ship has been righted, it does give us Barnes owners some hope. Barnes goes four times this week and has good matchups in each of them. I'm going to do what I can to start him this week. And since he's sitting on waivers until 4 a.m. tomorrow morning in one of my leagues where I cut him, I can pretty much count on not getting him back after this paragraph. Oh well. Tyrus Thomas is another player who had an interesting week. I own him in many leagues and just traded for him in League Freak, giving up Mike Bibby in the process. I own Chris Paul in that one and was short on big men. Thomas' early defensive numbers are ridiculous, just as his 2-of-22 shooting in his last two games is as well. Before I made the trade I did some research and found out that Vinny Del Negro is still cool with Thomas despite his struggles. He's told him to keep shooting and understands that his young big man is going to be up and down this season. As long as he keeps getting close to 30 minutes a night, Thomas should probably be starting in all formats. Jamal Crawford and David Lee were invisible on Sunday, but should be fine. Don't push the panic button. Meanwhile, Quentin Richardson looked like a superstar and will be a very popular wire pickup today. And given the fact he enjoyed his best season ever under Mike D'Antoni a few years ago, he could be a steal if he can stay healthy. Just don't expect this type of line more than a couple times a month. Enjoy Week 2! |
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| | #24 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Pau's bro dials 911 in Memphis What a great day. We get to vote and I bought about 27 gallons of gas for $55, which is the lowest I remember paying around here in years. We only have one car, but it's a giant and the $125 fill ups were not fun. A couple more notes on yesterday's trade that made Allen Iverson a Piston. Here's a quick rundown of everyone who's affected. Iverson – Still a stud, will have to play some team ball, but I think he's going to mellow and accept his role, whatever that is, in hopes of winning a championship. Iverson should still lead the team in scoring with around 23-25 ppg and average 6-7 assists, regardless of whether he's playing the 1 or 2. Rip Hamilton – Probably not in danger of losing his job and shouldn't see much of a change, although AI will steal some of his shots and he could see himself playing some decent minutes at small forward. Rodney Stuckey – Will play some point and some shooting guard but it may take another trade to make him a full-time starter. An NBA insider told me that the Warriors and Pistons could be talking a Tayshaun Prince for Al Harrington deal, which would surely solve the problem and make Stuckey the starting point guard. But that is just a rumor and the trade may never see the light of day. As far as Stuckey's concerned, just hold him for now and we'll see what happens. Coach Michael Curry said last night that he envisions AI and Rip as his starting back court, but also said that he can see Stuckey playing point, AI playing shooting guard and Rip moving over to the small forward spot, which moves Tayshaun to sixth man. Then again, Stuckey is not exactly lighting the world on fire right now and was just 3-of-7 for nine points, four boards, three assists and a 3-pointer in last night's start. Just stay in your holding pattern if you own him. Tayshaun Prince – He appears to be the guy taking the biggest hit thus far, as all the talk focuses around getting Stuckey minutes and moving Hamilton to small forward. There was once talk of making Prince an All-Star this season, but things really don't appear to be headed in that direction – at least for now. I traded for him with the "all-star" news, but am wishing I wouldn't have bothered now. Walter Herrmann – Herrmann has had some big games but will be inconsistent. This trade doesn't impact him too much, as he'll still be inconsistent off the bench. He's going to be most effective when he comes in and sticks a couple threes right off the bat. If he comes in and misses, he won't get much run. The big men remain unaffected by the trade, although Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell should see some extra bench minutes until Antonio McDyess clears waivers and returns to the Pistons (which is likely, but not guaranteed). In Denver, it's a little easier to break down. Chauncey Billups starts at point guard and sees his scoring increase and a few less assists per game. Still a top point guard, obviously. Carmelo Anthony sees his scoring go up closer to 30 ppg and with Marcus Camby not around, should put up bigger numbers all the way around. Anthony Carter is useless now. J.R. Smith gets a boost in minutes and should score, rebound and hit threes until the cows come home. Part of the reason the deal was made was to clear minutes for J.R., so hang onto him if you have him. He should challenge to lead the league in threes made. And don't be worried if he comes off the bench – he'll still get starter's minutes. Dahntay Jones and Linas Kleiza could also see some extra minutes, and it sounds like Dahntay will initially start at shooting guard. No More Kings If you own Kevin Martin or Beno Udrih, you've probably noticed that the Kings just might be the worst team in the league. Like the mighty Clippers, they're 0-4 after getting run out of the gym by the Sixers last night. There's been a lot of talk about what happens to Jason Thompson, Spencer Hawes and Mikki Moore when Brad Miller returns, but what about the rest of the team? If they continue to play this badly changes are going to be made. And even if changes aren't made, you don't get normal minutes from your fantasy studs when their team is down by 25 or 30 points. Hopefully this is just a phase they're going through, but Martin's 4-of-10, 14 points and nothing else line is disturbing. Thompson and Hawes were great again last night and I can't figure out why Moore is starting – just doesn't make sense. Moore had zero points and zero boards in 18 minutes, while Thompson had 17 points, six boards and five dimes in 30 minutes. Thompson will take a hit when Miller returns after one more game, but Moore should completely drop out. Hawes, Miller and Thompson should all be held until we see how this one plays out. Iguodala's Struggles Are you worried about Andre Iguodala yet? He's averaging just 12 points and about five boards and dimes after last night's 10-5-3 line. The Sixers are still trying to adjust to having Elton Brand up front and it looks like it's negatively impacting Iguodala more than anyone else. He will figure out, but you may have to be very patient if you own him. And get ready for the low-ball offers to start rolling in from the vultures in your league. Gooden is Good A game after going for seven points and 20 rebounds, Drew Gooden backed it up with 21 points and three boards. I guess that evens out to averaging a double-double, but it's a strange way to go about it. My main man Tyrus Thomas had another paltry line last night, logging just 17 minutes and has hit just five of his last 29 shots. The argument can be made that Andres Nocioni got a lot of extra run in order to match up with Rashard Lewis, and that makes sense. But you can't have a good feeling in your gut if you own Thomas. Like I keep saying, he has to get it turned around quickly before he loses his job. He's got Cleveland twice, Phoenix and Atlanta in his next four. If he doesn't get it done in that stretch, it could be the end of his starting run. Luol Deng was 0-for-8 with one point in a tough loss to the Magic, but Ben Gordon (17) and Nocioni (20) picked it up off the bench. Joakim Noah continues to rot away on the bench (five minutes, 0 points, 3 boards), but may get a chance if Thomas continues to head in the wrong direction. For the Magic, Dwight Howard was beastly again, while Hedo Turkoglu had an off night, hitting just 3-of-16 shots. But, as good players do, he didn't hurt you too much with 10 points, seven boards and seven assists. And J.J. Redick, who had supposedly climbed to No. 2 on the shooting guard depth chart, was a DNP-CD last night. So much for that experiment. Jason Richardson hit just 2-of-10 shots for four points and five assists in Monday's loss to the Pistons, while Shannon Brown (yes, Shannon Brown) came off the bench for 26 minutes, 16 points, four steals and a 3-pointer. It's easy to say that JR had an off night and will bounce back in the next one, but the fact that Larry Brown is involved makes me very nervous. I'm not saying Brown will do anything drastic here, but if he thinks Brown is outworking Richardson, those of us who own JR could be in trouble. Keep your fingers crossed. Hamstrung Raymond Felton was having some hamstring issues during the game last night, but fought through it. Just beware that he is hurting and played just 23 minutes. Speaking of hamstrings, Corey Maggette hit just 4-of-16 shots last night and said both of his hamstrings are in bad shape. He's talking about shutting it down to get healthy, although I'm not sure he's really ready to do that. If he does, you'll probably want to have Kelenna Azubuike available. Call 911 It was a center-fest when Memphis beat Golden State last night. Andris Biedrins had 16 points and 22 rebounds on 8-of-14 shooting, while rookie Marc Gasol had 27 points, 16 boards, three blocks and six turnovers! When was the last time Pau had a line like that? And while the Warriors were probably thinking about calling 911, Gasol was actually dialing the phone for them. He hit 9-of-11 from both the field and free throw line. Gasol is the first NBA player with a 25/15 game within the first five games of his NBA career since Shaquille O'Neal did it in November 1992. Gasol was either undrafted or taken late in your draft, and he's paying some early dividends. And you obviously don't need me to tell you to pick him up. Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry continue to cancel each other out and are not startable in most leagues, while Hakim Warrick played 32 minutes off the bench last night for nine points and seven boards. Darrell Arthur got just 16 minutes for eight points and three boards. I still think Arthur is going to start, but Warrick is the better NBA player right now. Warrick will be fighting for 25 minutes on most nights, but watch him closely. Either way, I'm not quite ready to give up on Arthur just yet. Nor am I ready to grab Warrick and throw him into my lineup. But watch him closely. Delonte West woke up with 14 points, four boards, five assists, three steals and three 3-pointers last night, and it's probably time to move on him if he is available in your league. He'll be inconsistent, but is starting and has the potential to do this more than once in a blue moon. Jason Kidd had nine points and six assists, while Dirk Nowitzki was 3-of-11 for eight points and six boards as the Mavericks were throttled by the Cavs. All is not well in Big D this morning. Gerald Green had 10 points, four rebounds and is coming on. One more line like that and it could be time to move on him. Paul Millsap took over the game in the fourth quarter, scoring 15 straight Utah points in four minutes to lead the Jazz over the Clippers. Wow. It was fluky, but impressive nonetheless. It would likely take an injury to make him an everyday starter, so his fantasy value is still pretty limited right now. For the Clippers, Baron Davis (on my bench) made a surprise return from his hip/back injury and had 14 points and nine dimes off the bench. If you're in a daily league, go ahead and get him active. It's frustrating having your second-round pick on the bench for two straight weeks and I can certainly feel your pain. Marcus Camby finally played and had nine boards and three blocks, while Chris Kaman had 19 points, 10 boards and three blocks of his own. Maybe they can coexist. Only three games on the slate tonight, but Wednesday features 13 games. Enjoy. |
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| | #25 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Stuck on You Welcome, dear readers, to Position Battles: Round Two. We'll start in New Jersey and Detroit with a few new battles inspired by the blockbuster A.I. for Billups trade. As usual, there are more battles out there than I can write about in one column...if you have any specific questions or comments, just email me (link at bottom) and I'll do my best to respond quickly. Enjoy. Nets small forward: Bobby Simmons vs. Devean George vs. Chris Douglas-Roberts Bobby Simmons is still the Nets starting small forward, but won't be for long if he doesn't improve quickly. Through the first two games of the season (an admittedly small sample) Simmons is shooting 3-of-13 from the field in 24 minutes per game. He has three times as many fouls (nine) as rebounds (three, in case the math was too tricky). Jarvis Hayes, on the other hand, has played very well coming off the bench. He is shooting 64% on the season in 25 minutes per game, and could slide into the starting lineup if Simmons continues to struggle. Regardless of who starts, the two will split minutes and will probably continue to negate each other's value. I was hopeful that Simmons would return to his breakout numbers from 04-05 with the Clippers, but so far he's actually been worse than his dismal stint with Milwaukee. Steer clear of both guys if you can. Chris Douglas-Roberts had a very impressive preseason, but so far it hasn't translated to real games. He will continue to get minutes backing up both wing positions, but for the moment he is hardly worth watching outside of very deep leagues. Bucks point guard: Luke Ridnour vs. Ramon Sessions New developments have forced me to re-examine the Bucks point guard situation...this battle has been featured in both columns so far, and I'm pretty sure it will persist well into the season. Ramon Sessions teased fantasy owners with his sterling play while filling in as the starting PG for injured Luke Ridnour (back). In two starts, Sessions averaged 15 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists and two steals in 40 minutes per game. The downside is his 50% free throw shooting and 3.5 turnovers, but he's a career 74% FT shooter and most owners can live with the high turnovers. Unfortunately for all of Sessions' owners, Luke Ridnour is healthy enough to resume playing, and according to coach Scott Skiles he will continue to start. "What Ramon has done the last two games is play very, very well," said Skiles. "He's obviously earned some playing time, but we're not ever going to be in the business of if a guy misses a couple games, all of a sudden he's out of there. To me, that shows tremendous instability for me and for the team. But Ramon has definitely earned further playing time, no question." Increased playing time is a good start, but as long as Sessions is splitting minutes with Ridnour they are both shaky fantasy options. Ridnour averaged six rebounds and four assists in the two games he played in, but shot just 23% from the field. That low average can be partially attributed to his back injury (though he is a 42% shooter for his career), but not entirely. Bench the Bucks point guards until one of them commands a majority of the playing time. Bucks power forward: Charlie Villanueva vs. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute This is a contentious issue for Villanueva's owners. We all expected big things from the fourth-year forward, but the early returns aren't promising: through four games, CV is averaging 14 points on 46% shooting, 0.8 three-pointers, seven rebounds, 1.3 assists and two turnovers. Perhaps most disturbing is his paltry 23 minutes per game. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is the primary reason for Villanueva's slow start. Mbah a Moute, a prince in his native village of Bia Messe, Cameroon, has wasted no time impressing Bucks coach Scott Skiles with his solid fundamentals and defensive tenacity. The result has been slowly increased playing time, culminating in Monday's game when he had 11 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and zero turnovers in 35 minutes. That princely line (sorry!) opened many owners' eyes to Mbah a Moute's potential, while causing CV's owners migraine headaches. Skiles clearly isn't enamored with Villanueva's all-around game, and although it's early I'm ready to hedge my bets on his having a breakout season. If you can get good value for him in a trade, with the sales pitch that he'll turn the corner sooner rather than later, I think you should do it. As for Mbah a Moute...I haven't picked him up in any leagues yet (it's hard to see him averaging 30 minutes a game), but will be eagerly scanning the Bucks boxscores for signs of things to come. Thunder frontcourt: Johan Petro vs. Nick Collison vs. Chris Wilcox vs. Joe Smith The Thunder frontcourt is a mess of minute-shares, with an over-abundance of capable power forwards and a dearth of centers. Years of drafting project big men (Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mouhamed Sene...and they signed 7'0" Steven Hill on Tuesday) have yielded next to nothing. Petro is currently playing center...with predictable results. In three games this season, Johan Petro is averaging five points on 38% shooting, six rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks. The steal and block numbers are a treat, but Petro is obviously out of his depth and it's anyone's guess how long he'll last in the starting lineup. He could make it through the entire season as a starting center without having consistent fantasy value...and that is no mean feat. He's worth watching, but don't bother picking him up unless you're desperate. Meanwhile, Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith continue to scrap for minutes at power forward. Collison is clearly the best option of the three, as his season statistics reflect: eight points on 48% shooting, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks in 30 minutes per game. Will he eventually become the team's starting center, freeing Wilcox to start at PF? That is hard to say, because the Thunder prefer a full-sized center to Collison (who is 6'9"). Collison's owners can take solace in the fact that his ability to play either frontcourt position gives him a huge advantage in the battle for playing time. I have never liked Chris Wilcox as a fantasy player. He shoots very well from the field (career 53% shooter) but just as poorly from the line (career 67%). He has never averaged more than 8.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals or 0.6 blocks in a season, and has never averaged more assists than turnovers. With his minutes challenged on all fronts (he is playing 23 minutes per game, just five more than Joe Smith), it's probably time to cut him in average leagues. Nuggets shooting guard: J.R. Smith vs. Dahntay Jones The trade that brought Chauncey Billups to Denver could end up benefiting J.R. Smith more than any other player. Nuggets Coach George Karl said on Monday that one motivation for the trade was freeing up more playing time for Smith. "The minutes problem that I was having with A.I. and J.R., I thought would be consistently (frustrating to both players)," Karl said. "No question (Iverson) wants to play 40, and cutting him to 34 to 35 would have been a challenge." In the short-term, Karl said he will probably start Dahntay Jones at shooting guard for defensive purposes, before eventually working Smith into the starting lineup. This isn't so much a position battle, therefore, as a passing of the torch. Jones will keep the starting SG spot warm until Smith is ready for it. It's pretty much a guarantee that Jones will not be worth owning: he has never averaged more than 21 minutes, 7.5 points or 2.0 rebounds per game in his career. J.R. Smith, on the other hand, is primed for the breakout season we've been salivating over for years. In his three games this season, he is averaging 15.7 points, 1.7 three-pointers, 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.3 turnovers in 33 minutes per game. Bump his playing time up into the 35-38 minute range, throw in a pass-first, steadying PG in Billups...what you have is a fantasy goldmine. Pistons point guard: Rodney Stuckey vs. Allen Iverson There probably are no losers in this battle, from a fantasy perspective. The consensus is that Iverson will benefit moving to a new situation. His interest had begun to wane in Denver, but now he'll be refreshed and motivated as the Pistons challenge for supremacy in the East. He will also become the team's undisputed number-one option on offense, instead of sharing the load with Carmelo Anthony. Rodney Stuckey's development was one of the biggest reasons Detroit made this deal. There wasn't much room for him with Billups manning the point, but now he can split PG duties with A.I. Whether he starts is another question. Early word is that coach Michael Curry will start Iverson at PG to begin with, but will slowly rotate Stuckey in as the point guard, sliding A.I. to shooting guard and Rip Hamilton to small forward. The exact rotations are almost beside the point, however, as Stuckey's minutes are sure to rise. He isn't as pure a distributor as Billups was (few are), but with a 30-minute role he is capable of posting numbers somewhere in this range: 15 points on 42% field goals and 85% free throws, 0.5 three-pointers, four rebounds, five assists, 1.2 steals and 2.5 turnovers. He's not going to carry your fantasy squad to victory, but should be worth starting in most formats. Thanks for reading, and good luck this week! |
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| | #26 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| That's Amare The title of this column nearly ended up being "Car 55, where are you?" in a nod to Tony Parker's 55 points against Minnesota. And it also could have very well been entitled "Please make the congestion stop," in recognition of my vicious head cold. However, the biggest story on a wild and thrilling 13-game night in the NBA was Amare Stoudemire's eruption against the Pacers, so we'll start there: He did what? Many owners were concerned after their first-round pick was only averaging 20.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg and 0.8 bpg on 64.6% shooting through four games, proving yet again that the fantasy basketball owner is a cruel and terribly impatient creature. Regardless of whether some reassurance was necessary, Amare provided it in enormous fashion on Wednesday: 49 points, 10 boards, six assists, five steals and two blocks, shooting an outrageously efficient 17-of-21 from the field and 15-of-15 from the line. Making the performance even more remarkable is that two of those misses came from three-point range. Stoudemire won't face an undermanned Pacers center rotation every night, but the key takeaway from this show-stopping performance is that Stoudemire's owners can definitely stop worrying (even though they really didn't need to worry in the first place). Car 55 Had Stoudemire not posted those exorbitant stats, the performance of the night would have gone to the aforementioned Parker, who went completely berserker in a double-OT win over Minnesota, scoring 55 points on 22-of-36 shooting with seven rebounds and 10 assists. What has become abundantly clear is that Parker (33.3 ppg) is going to shoulder an immense scoring burden for as long as Manu Ginobili is out. Considering that he still doesn't hit many threes (0.8 per game) and doesn't collect many steals (0.5 per game so far), now seems like a terrific time to sell high on T.P. and try to spin him for an elite talent. That said, any owners feeling inclined to hang onto the man they consider their dearest French friend in the world can't be faulted either. The King's charitable endeavor Overshadowed by the 104 combined points for Stoudemire and Parker was a 41-point, nine-rebound, six-assist night from LeBron James. Ho hum, he does that all the time, you say? Not so fast. What truly sets this showing apart is that King James went 15-of-16 from the free throw line, making him an uncharacteristic 28-for-31 over his last two games. Calling to mind the moment Happy Gilmore tells Shooter (in an oddly high-pitched voice), "Happy learned how to putt. Uh oh," the notion of LBJ becoming an elite free throw shooter would have significant ramifications on the fantasy landscape. Yes, it's only two games, and he could easily register a 6-for-10 or two at any moment, but if LeBron could nudge his free throw percentage consistently into the upper 70's (he's currently at 78.2%), he would by most accounts unseat Chris Paul as the most valuable fantasy commodity on the planet. While owners everywhere finally look into purchasing that hockey stick putter they've been meaning to get all these years, here's a look at the other big fantasy storylines from Wednesday night: A reminder: For exclusive stat projections, top 250 rankings and other tools to help win your league, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass. Mr. Randy… Foye – At a time of year when many young point guards have disappointed, there's no doubt that owners were closely watching embattled T-Wolves PG Randy Foye's outing against the Spurs. In a game of mixed messages, Foye made some gratuitous turnovers and forfeited some key crunch time minutes to Sebastian Telfair, but was ultimately in the game in the second OT (after Telfair fouled out), and showed some flashes of the Randy Foye we've been hoping for. In the end, he finished with his best line of the year: 11 points, five rebounds, nine assists, a steal, a block and a three on 5-of-11 shooting. Telfair also played well (eight points, 10 assists in 30 minutes), but Foye's owners have to be encouraged, even though Telfair is far from out of the picture. Platooning – In Milwaukee, both starting point guard Luke Ridnour (20 points, seven rebounds, 11 assists, two threes, two steals) and backup Ramon Sessions (22 points, eight assists) went positively buck wild, giving fantasy owners hope for the prosperity of point guard platoons everywhere. However, it cannot be overlooked that Michael Redd (ankle) sat out, allowing Ridnour and Sessions to play a combined 78 minutes (43 for Ridnour, 35 for Sessions). Unfortunately, this situation is nowhere close to settled, and for the time being, it looks like Scott Skiles has no choice but to give both guys as many minutes as he can. With Redd expected back soon, that will not equate to fun times. Everybody says Tyrus is the one and only It pains me to say it, but the wheels have officially come off the Tyrus Thomas express. And not just in the sense that one or two tires gently went flat and required mild roadside assistance. More like the lugnuts simultaneously exploded at 78 mph on the freeway, the hubcaps went frisbeeing off and the car helicoptered into a ditch. In his fourth straight painful outing, Thomas played just 15 minutes, finishing with three points, three rebounds and two blocks. I'll be holding onto him (and planting him on the bench) in most of my leagues, but at this point, I can't argue against dropping him for someone productive. I hate to say it, but it's over. Until, of course, he has another great game and we all get tricked into picking him up again. More news on all the rest: O.J. Mayo – It's official: Mayonnaise is trendy again (if it was ever out of season in the first place). The Grizzlies rookie busted out in a big way (28 points, six three-pointers, three steals), and fantasy owners can certainly live with one rebound and zero assists given the other production (kind of like how people can inexplicably live with eating a substance that looks like snot as long as the rest of the sandwich tastes good). Rodney Stuckey – With Allen Iverson's Pistons debut delayed until Friday, Stuckey started again, but was far from dynamic (14 points, five assists, no steals, no threes in 32 minutes). Don't drop him until you see how his minutes shake out with Iverson around, but it is clearly time to lower expectations. Marc Gasol – One game removed from his 27-point, 16-rebound, three-block masterpiece, Pau Lite came plummeting earthward with five points, six rebounds and four turnovers. Before you get too upset, remember that he is a rookie, and these things will happen. Raymond Felton – Finally, his first strong game of the year (18 points, six assists, three steals), but remember that D.J. Augustin looms (14 points, four rebounds, four assists, two threes, two steals), and if Felton can stay hot in the near future, shopping him wouldn't be a bad idea. Andrew Bynum – We've told Bynum owners to be patient, and on Wednesday night, Bynum finally proved he's back: nine points, 17 boards and four blocks. Thank you for your patience. Mario Chalmers – It's time to form a coalition of Simpsons and NBA fans to decide whether or not we're calling him "Superintendent Chalmers" or "Super Nintendo Chalmers." I've heard both, and we need to settle on a nickname for the Heat rookie point guard, because it appears he's going to be a legit fantasy factor. Chalmers' line on Wednesday (six points, four rebounds, six assists and nine steals) is the sort of performance that quietly does very good things for your team. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute – Though he's still not worthy of a roster spot (except in very deep leagues), we also need to agree on a nickname for the Bucks rookie forward, because if nothing else, he's making himself known by completely sabotaging Charlie Villanueva's fantasy value. On Wednesday, Mbah a Moute scored 17 points on 8-of-10 shooting, leaving Villanueva (six points on 3-of-12 shooting) planted on the bench down the stretch. About that nickname: I've heard "M and M," which has potential, but I'll also nominate "The Little Prince." He is, after all, a prince in his native Cameroon. He is not, however, little. Andre Iguodala – His struggles continue (two points on 1-of-7 shooting), and impatience is no doubt rising, but given his explosive productivity the past two years, there's just no way this can continue. Maybe Iggy won't produce 19.9 ppg like he did last year, but the rest of his stats should eventually round into shape. This is the ideal time to buy low, and if you own him, sit tight. Kevin Durant – Speaking of buying low, now's the time if you believed in Durant heading into this season. He's been a big disappointment, but will definitely be better than this. Kevin Love – Great energy, outstanding hustle, good production: 14 points, nine rebounds, three blocks and a three while staying in Tim Duncan's face all night. He won't do this every game (yet), but good production is coming, sooner rather than later. Al Harrington/ Brandan Wright – With Corey Maggette out with a hamstring and Harrington having his worst night of the year (three points in 16 minutes), Don Nelson unleashed Brandan Wright, who responded with 18 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks in 32 minutes. Wright should probably be added in most leagues (especially as insurance for Harrington owners), but remember that we're talking about Nellie here, which means Wright could play 32 minutes on Friday, or he could play eight. Grant Hill – He made a brief cameo (11 points, four blocks) with Matt Barnes (family emergency) missing Wednesday's game, but is not getting enough minutes to be effective with Barnes in the mix. Marquis Daniels – Mike Dunleavy's knee remains a mystery, and in his absence, Daniels continues to produce nice all-around stats. He's mandatory for Dunleavy owners, and a nice short term commodity with long-term upside for anyone else. Jeff Green – Some would disagree, but I see 14 points, six rebounds, two threes, a steal and a block as a positive performance against a tough Celtics defense. More stats are coming soon. Marvin Williams – He went three-for-three behind the arc in only his second game of the season. Owners have been down on him without much reason, but the addition of the three-ball to his repertoire makes Marvin an underrated commodity. Beno Udrih – He struggled again on Wednesday (four points, six assists, four turnovers), while unheralded backup Bobby Brown played surprisingly well (10 points, five assists). However, Beno showed some flashes of his old self Wednesday, and the Kings got their first win, so there's still no need for panic – only frustration. Nene – He shredded the Warriors with 19 points, 15 boards and three blocks and is on his way to a career year if he stays healthy. (That "if," of course, is enormous.) Travis Outlaw – Returned to the bench and scored 10 points (with three treys) in 23 minutes. Not his best night, but he can produce off the bench. Give him a chance. Mehmet Okur – Finally hit his first three of the year on his way to 22 points and nine boards. More threes are coming. Mike Miller – One three-pointer in his first three games combined; five three-pointers on Wednesday. The sniper is back. Ray Allen – Had a second straight strong game to raise his average to 15.8 ppg on the year, looking nimble and exceedingly explosive for a 33-year-old. If you're content with 17 or 18 ppg and some threes, enjoy. If you want to get greedy and see if there's a Celtics fan out there who has to overpay for Ray, the time to make that offer is approaching relatively soon. Coming up tonight Compared to the whirlwind that was Wednesday (and this column), Thursday has a peaceful, quiet, soothing two games (WHERE ARE MY GAMES??!?!? I WANT MORE) on the schedule. Let's hope that Andre Iguodala can show some signs of a pulse in Orlando, while Rafer Alston owners get another opportunity for fear and self-loathing in Portland. Dr. A will be here to recap all the action in tomorrow's Dose. Thank you for your time, and as Amare Stoudemire politely told the Pacers' front line, "A good day to you, sir." |
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| | #27 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Clutch! My laptop died on me last night around midnight. Is there a worse feeling than that one? Hopefully the hamster stays on the wheel long enough on my old desktop to get me through the weekend. I got a note from "skyrocket" asking for me to post my annual rant about vetoes in fantasy hoops leagues. His timing was appropriate, as it seems like I've already answered a ton of email regarding veto problems in leagues this year, and we're not even out of Week 2. I abhor vetoing trades in fantasy hoops. Eventually, most leagues become "veto-happy" and it becomes nearly impossible to get any trade to go through. There's no worse feeling than making a trade that you think is going to help your team (and possibly win you a championship) and then having it shot down by the veto committee. If there was a veto committee in the NBA, most trades would never happen - especially the one that sent Pau Gasol to the Lakers last year. Unless there is obvious collusion going on, or someone decides to trade LeBron straight up for Jamario Moon because they clearly don't care, there is no reason to veto trades. Who is to decide if Charlie Villanueva for Tim Thomas is fair or not? My opinion is Villanueva looks like a much safer bet, but who knows? And who's to say that the guy getting Chris Bosh for Marvin Williams and Russell Westbrook doesn't end up losing in the long run? It's possible Bosh could have foot problems, Marvin could have a career year and Westbrook could have a huge second half. As long as both owners honestly believe in the trade they're making, that's all I care about. I do not play in veto-happy leagues. They usually end with most of the "normal" owners (who like to wheel, deal and have fun) angry and a league full of stagnant teams with little interaction or transactions. The idea of this is to have fun. So a wise old veteran fleeces a rookie by trading a red-hot Tyrus Thomas straight up for Jose Calderon last week? Instead of freaking out and getting mad, I say bravo, and then try to find a way to counter his move. And there is no guarantee that JC doesn't get hurt in the near future. Fleecing new guys is a right of passage. I once traded Randy Moss for Kevin Faulk and some other "guy" when I was a rookie in a football league 10 years or so ago. Yeah, it sucked, and my team never recovered, but it was a great learning experience. Do yourselves a favor and stop the veto madness. If you have the right type of owners in your leagues, you shouldn't need a veto committee anyway. And if your veto committee isn't going away, at least set some parameters on what should be vetoed and what should be let go. If you're a Season Pass subscriber, I'm having a Live Chat today at 1 p.m. And if you're not a Season Pass subscriber, click here. NBA Season Pass. In addition to exclusive chats, weekly rankings, customizable rankings, Top 200 players going forward, Top 200 players in keeper leagues, Buy Low, Sell High and Pickup of the Day columns are all part of the package. It is a great tool to have at your disposal. Nellie and Al The Nellie show didn't take long to get going this year as Don Nelson appears to be sick of Al Harrington. Nellie went on a long rant about Harrington yesterday that should help get Harrington out of town sooner than later. And while things look great for Brandan Wright currently, it's important to keep in mind that this is not comparable to what's happening with Stephon Marbury or Jamaal Tinsley. It sounds like Harrington will play, but we just don't know how much. He got less than 20 minutes in his last game and Wright's minutes are going to increase. But Nellie could go ahead and play Harrington 40 minutes tonight, despite yesterday's rant. I'm not saying it's likely, but it is possible. If you own Harrington in a normal-sized league, just bench him for now. And if you picked up Wright, congratulations. Just don't throw yourself a party until we see if Nellie follows through on his promise and starts developing Wright right now. And keep Anthony Randolph in the back of your mind. If Wright struggles or lands in Nellie's doghouse, he's next in line. Iguodala Crisis? While I'm all for buying low on Andre Iguodala, I am also getting very concerned by what we've seen. It's become quite clear that he either A. can't figure out how to play with Elton Brand, or B. doesn't want to make any sacrifices for Elton Brand. Iguodala has been terrible this year, and while we were all reading and writing about tag-teams to worry about this season, I don't recall ever hearing anyone voice much concern about Dre being able to play with Brand. And then you add in the fact that Thaddeus Young is starting to look real good (and leading the team in scoring?!), and you have to wonder if Iguodala is going to get this figured out. The Sixers are a mess in general right now, losing again last night to the Magic, and are leading the league in turnovers. How Andre Miller had just two assists, I'm not sure I'll ever understand. That said, Iguodala seemed to figure something out last night. He hit just 4-of-12 shots and committed five more turnovers, but came dangerously close to a triple-double (16-11-8). Chances are this will all work out in the end, but the fact the Sixers don't look very good and most guys on the team are struggling is something to worry about when buying low on Iguodala. But he should pay big dividends if you can land him right now, so don't be that concerned about the early-season struggles he's having. Thursday's Action After getting off to a hot start and racking up double-doubles in his first three games, Elton Brand has cooled off. He's double-doubled in just one of his last three after scoring six points on Thursday and grabbing just four rebounds on Monday. He'll be fine. Thaddeus Young is averaging 16.5 points, 4-plus boards and 1.8 3-pointers made per game. I didn't see that one coming and you probably didn't either. It's possible he keeps it up, but that looks like a sell-high line to me. When Iguodala and Brand get this figured out, you have to think Young's numbers take a hit. The Magic got 16 points, four boards, nine assists and a three out of Jameer Nelson. Maybe he's finally ready to step it up and start playing. Then again, it seems like I write this every single year about him. After four straight double-doubles, Dwight Howard cooled off against Samuel Dalembert last night, finishing with "just" 14 points, eight rebounds and three blocks. If that's the worst line Howard gives us this year, we're probably going to be OK. Roy Trumps Yao Did you catch the end of that late thriller last night? Yao Ming hit a fadeaway in overtime and was fouled on the shot (by Brandon Roy) with 0.8 seconds left. The three-point play put the Rockets up by one, but Roy answered with a 3-point rainbow of his own to give the Blazers the win at the buzzer. It was worth the loss of sleep if you stayed up for it. Of course, I couldn't really enjoy it because that's when the laptop mayhem started, but it was still pretty cool. LaMarcus Aldridge went off for 27 points, nine boards and three blocks, while Steve Blake added eight assists and eight points. Nicolas Batum started again and had six points and three boards, but Travis Outlaw countered with 14 points, 13 boards and two threes off the bench. Obviously, Outlaw is still the much better option there. Rudy Fernandez also added three more 3-pointers for 15 points. The Rockets got 30 points, seven boards, eight assists and two steals from Tracy McGrady. Thanks for setting our expectations so low, T-Mac. He's playing hurt, but for how long is anyone's guess. So far, so good. Rafer Alston was not great again and Aaron Brooks (14 points, two assists, two threes) played more minutes. Brooks should probably be owned in all leagues, as he could take over the job if Rafer doesn't get it going soon. Chuck Hayes suffered a shoulder injury, which could be good news for Luis Scola, although Scola was mysteriously absent at the end of the game. There was no report of an injury to Scola. Friday's Storylines Allen Iverson should make his debut for the Pistons tonight at New Jersey, while Chauncey Billups should play for the Nuggets at home against Dallas. Don't read too much into tonight's starting lineups, as this will be their first runs with their new teams. Both players will be starting soon enough, and could be in there tonight. Detroit will be looking to go to 5-0 against the 1-2 Nets. Etan Thomas practiced Thursday and it sounds like he'll start against the Knicks. The Bucks are at Boston. Hopefully Michael Redd (ankle) will play tonight, while Luke Ridnour's owners are hoping he looks as good tonight as he did in his last one. I'm fine with holding Ramon Sessions right now, but as we've been saying all along, it's Ridnour's job for now. The 3-1 Raptors are at 3-0 Atlanta. If the Hawks can get this one, they could realistically be 6-0 heading into a game at Boston next week. We're still waiting for Marvin Williams' breakout game. Miami is at San Antonio and this has to feel like a must-win for the Spurs, who are just 1-3. Phoenix visits Chicago and it sounds like they'll probably be without Matt Barnes, who is at home with newborn twins. I've got him stuck in a couple weekly lineups, so I'm hoping for a miracle. The Bulls could be making a lineup change. Ben Gordon could replace Thabo Sefolosha tonight, while Tyrus Thomas' job is anything but safe right now. If Gordon was cut in your league, grab him. He's playing well, but I am still expecting him to be inconsistent. But if he lands the starting job and keeps it, he's obviously going to have value. It sounds like Utah will be without Deron Williams again tonight at home against OKC. Kevin Martin is iffy tonight with a sprained ankle that required X-rays, but they were negative. It sounds like he'll play, but the possibility exists that he sits after missing Thursday's practice with the injury. We'll also get the return of Brad Miller from suspension, who may or may not come off the bench. The fantasy world will be watching Miller, Spencer Hawes, Mikki Moore and rookie Jason Thompson closely in this one. Randy Foye could be in danger of losing his starting job to Sebastian Telfair, while Kevin Love could be close to joining the starting five as well. Plenty to keep an eye on tonight as the Wolves visit Sacramento. Memphis is at Golden State, where we'll find out just how mad Nellie is at Al Harrington. Pay close attention to this one, keeping an eye on C.J. Watson in the process. Corey Maggette is out and Marcus Williams could be getting close to getting some minutes. As usual, plenty of things to keep an eye on in Golden State. And after last night's late-night thriller, the Rockets are at it again at the Clippers. They're going to be tired. And keep your eye on Eric Gordon, who could be on the verge of getting a bump in minutes. |
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| | #28 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Yes way, Jose Welcome to The Week Ahead. The information below is relevant for Week Three in the NBA: Monday, November 10rd through Sunday the 16th. Teams are listed in order of games played, starting with the lowest. That is particularly helpful for leagues with weekly lineups...for everyone else there are quick hits galore. Read on! Also...if you haven't subscribed toRotoworld's NBA Season Pass, what are you waiting for! It is chock-full of exclusive columns, updated rankings, customizable roster reports, schedule grids and everything else you need todominate your league. Two-games: Clippers, Wizards Three-game teams: Bobcats, Bulls, Cavaliers, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Hornets, Raptors Four-game teams: Hawks, Celtics, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pistons, Pacers, Heat, Bucks, Nets, Knicks, Thunder, Magic, 76ers, Suns, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Kings, Jazz Two-game teams: Clippers Marcus Camby has returned but his heel is still sore and the Clippers intend to limit his minutes to 25 minutes per game until further notice. With two games on the schedule, it's probably best to avoid him this week if you can afford to. Tim Thomas should continue to get extra playing time with Camby on the mend. Baron Davis (finger, hip) is back and looks fine, though L.A.'s two-game schedule makes him a tough decision. Eric Gordon will reportedly get more playing time soon, but it's very doubtful he'll play enough to be worth a roster spot. Wizards Washington is still winless. Etan Thomas is expected to play despite a recent ankle injury. His play this season has been uninspiring (7.5 points and five rebounds in 18 minutes per game), but he could still be serviceable if his minutes creep closer to 30 per game. Andray Blatche (7.3 points on 44% shooting, 4.3 rebounds and 3.0 turnovers in 17 minutes per game) has looked awful this season. He has fallen into disfavor with coach Eddie Jordan, and if he doesn't get going in the next few weeks it's safe to cut him. Keep a close eye on guard Nick Young, whose 15.7 point scoring average is third on the team. He is 0-of-6 from downtown, but is shooting 50% from the field and with a few more minutes would be an excellent pickup in most leagues. Three-game teams: Bobcats Jason Richardson's three-point attempts per game have fallen from 7.3 last season to just 3.5 so far this year. Part of the problem is that he's not shooting very well, just 29% from downtown and 41% overall. One positive is his 91% free throw shooting, an area he worked hard on during the offseason. The Bobcats don't have many options on offense, so expect his 17-point scoring average to go up in the near future. Shannon Brown had one solid game last week, but it will take more than that to convince me that he has lasting value. Depite starting, Jared Dudley has failed to impress...with the impending return of Sean May (poor conditioning), Dudley's role will shrink and he'll once again be useless. Raymond Felton is finally showing signs of life...D.J. Augustin will chip away at his minutes, but I still feel Felton is too talented to waste away on the Bobcats bench at any point. Buy-low, if you still can. UPDATE: Gerald Wallace is reportedly being traded in the near future...no word on where he'll land, but obviously all owners should keep a very close eye on this situation. One clue: the Bobcats desperately need a power forward. Bulls Where has Tyrus Thomas gone? He is shooting 25% from the field this season, and hasn't recorded more than seven points, six rebounds, one steal or 26 minutes played in any of his last three games. Andres Nocioni has quietly put together a few nice games, averaging just under 30 minutes over the last week. Keep an eye on him, especially if TT continues to struggle. Derrick Rose, the focal point of the Bulls gameplan, is leading the team in minutes played, assists and scoring. Ben Gordon has also been solid, though prone to quiet nights, whereas Kirk Hinrich's owners have to hope that he is traded sooner rather than later. Luol Deng has been bad this season (11.8 points on 36% shooting), but will undoubtedly return to his high-percentage ways before long. Cavaliers As usual, LeBron James has been brilliant -- 25.8 points, eight rebounds, 7.4 assists and 2.2 steals. The only concerns are his killer 3.8 turnovers per game and 0-of-13 shooting from three-point range. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has been as quietly dependable as ever. Ben Wallace is racking up 9.8 rebounds in just 23 minutes per game, but he is a specialist in fantasy leagues, and no longer very reliable. Mo Williams' numbers are down across the board from last season. No doubt LBJ's dominating the ball has had a negative effect, but I still think Mo will get it going before long. Delonte West has been very impressive in the starting lineup, averaging 11.4 points on 54% shooting, 2.4 three-pointers, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals and only one turnover in 33 minutes per game. Keep him active and hope that Sasha Pavlovic (eight minutes per game) and Wally Szczerbiak (17 minutes per game) don't command a larger share of minutes. Warriors Stephen Jackson is a mixed blessing. He is averaging 22.8 points per game, but it's taking him 20.4 shot attempts to do it (making 36% field goals). He is making 3.0 three-pointers, but is averaging a ludicrous 9.8 three-point attempts per game. (Yes, 9.8!) He is also averaging six assists per game, while turning the ball over an average of 4.6 times. Corey Maggette's hamstring injuries are a very real concern for his owners, as the same condition limited him last season. He has actually injured both of his hamstrings this early in the season, and should be benched until further notice. In the meantime, Kelenna Azubuike (14.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.0 steals) will continue to pick up the slack…keep him active. Al Harrington's owners better hope that he's traded soon, since coach Don Nelson recently vowed to limit Harrington's role in favor of Brandan Wright. Wright could even move into the starting lineup, and will be flying off the waiver wires all week. Andris Biedrins is scoring 16.4 points on 58% shooting with 13.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. There's even talk of his becoming a go-to guy on offense in clutch situations, so congratulations if you drafted him this season. Rockets Tracy McGrady is leading the Rockets with 22 points, 6.2 assists and 2.2 steals per game. His balky knee and shoulder are concerning, and I'd think long and hard about selling high on him while this nice run lasts. Luis Scola continues to be up and down, trading off production with Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes. Rafer Alston's situation is even more concerning. As if his 27% shooting weren't bad enough, backup Aaron Brooks is playing well if and could force a legitimate minute-share before long, if he hasn't already. Keep a close eye on Brooks, and don't feel too bad if you have to cut Rafer and his poisonous percentages. Lakers Andrew Bynum is off to a slow start, but has still managed 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks in just 27 minutes per game. Lamar Odom's owners have reason to be concerned. He is averaging 10 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists, but doesn't seem too comfortable in his new sixth-man role. Basically the Lakers are spreading their production around, as only two players (Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol) are averaging over 30 minutes per game. Grizzlies O.J. Mayo is off to a nice start Memphis, averaging 16.8 points while making 42% of his three-pointers (though that is also his overall FG%) to go along with four rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.6 steals. Rudy Gay is averaging 20 points on 42% shooting with 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 3.2 turnovers. Not bad, but not what his owners were expecting from their second- or third-round pick. Marc Gasol's ridiculous explosion last week might have been a fluke, but his solid numbers (11.4 points on 55% shooting, 9.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks) should continue to roll in all season long. The battle at power forward but has yet to be decided. Rookie Darrell Arthur (5.4 points and 7.2 rebounds) continues to start, though Hakim Warrick is consistently getting more minutes. Right now, neither guy is particularly reliable. Timberwolves Randy Foye's awful play (8.3 points on 28% shooting) has his owners concerned, and with good reason. He can't continue to struggle this badly all season, but already there is talk of Sebastian Telfair sliding into the starting lineup. With three games on the schedule, keep Foye sidelined and see how this plays out...a move to SG could be exactly what he needs to get going. Kevin Love is also rumored to be heading into the starting five, which would dislodge Ryan Gomes. Neither Gomes nor Craig Smith will have substantial value if Love starts playing 30+ minutes. Corey Brewer is playing well at small forward, but will need to improve his 42% shooting for owners to feel comfortable starting him every week. Hornets The Hornets have overcome recent injuries to Peja Stojakovic (14.7 points, 2.0 three pointers, 4.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists) and Tyson Chandler. Chandler is averaging 11 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks, but owners shouldn't rely on his block totals remaining at that elite level for long. James Posey has been terrific in 28 minutes per game, knocking down 3.0 three-pointers per game. He is killing the value of Morris Peterson and Rasual Butler...not that it took much. Raptors Jermaine O'Neal's struggles are a great big concern for his owners. Through four games, J.O. is averaging just 10 points on 38% shooting with 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 2.8 turnovers. The good news is that with Rasho Nesterovic gone, there isn't anyone threatening O'Neal's minutes. Stay patient and hopefully he'll start finding his place in the Raptors offense. Anthony Parker is averaging close to 40 minutes per game, and his 2.5 steals are buoying his always-underrated fantasy value. Same goes for Jamario Moon (9.3 points on 60% shooting, 1.5 three-pointers, 1.8 steals), whose understated lines mask his top-75 value in most formats. Chris Bosh is playing like he wants some MVP consideration and Jose Calderon's owners couldn't have asked for a better start to the season. Unfortunately for Andrea Bargnani, there aren't enough minutes for him to establish consistent fantasy value. Four-game weeks: Hawks Beyond the stellar play of Joe Johnson, the undefeated Hawks aren't exactly a fantasy goldmine. Josh Smith is averaging 14 points, 1.3 three-pointers, 10.7 rebounds, 3.0 steals and 3.3 blocks. Those are very nice, especially the steals and blocks, but Smith is also shooting 42% from the field and 57% from the free throw line, with 3.0 turnovers per game. Mike Bibby is just 34% from the field with four assists per game (no need to worry about Acie Law, who is averaging just 14 minutes). Marvin Williams has been poor in his two game since returning from a suspension, averaging 6.5 points on 39% shooting in 26 minutes. He will be a lot better as the season progresses, so don't give up on him now. Celtics Once again, there isn't terribly much to report from Boston. The "Big Three" continue to fill up the stat sheet (though Paul Pierce's 39% field goals and 66% free throws leave much to be desired). The supporting cast continues to do their job. Leon Powe is averaging 9.4 points on 58% shooting in just 18 minutes per game. Rajon Rondo is shooting 55% from the field with 4.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.4 steals...unfortunately his fantasy value is being dragged down by ridiculous 46% free throw shooting. Tony Allen has been good but not great off the bench, and should only have significant value if Ray Allen or Paul Pierce get injured. Mavericks Jason Terry and made a splash in his first start at shooting guard, scoring 29 points with six assists. His size makes him a liability on defense, so there's no guarantee that he'll stick as a starter, but he's obviously providing more punch than either Antoine Wright or Jerry Stackhouse, each of whom have had a shot at starting. Jason Kidd still can't score (8.5 points on 41% shooting) but has contributed 1.3 three pointers, 6.5 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 3.0 steals and only one turnover in 34 minutes per game. Nuggets The trade for Chauncey Billups should mean more shot attempts across the board, especially for Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith. For now, Dahntay Jones is the starting shooting guard, though George Karl expects to eventually slide Smith into the starting lineup. Either way, Smith's fantasy value gets a big boost with Iverson out of the picture. Nene has turned it on lately, now averaging 15 points on 63% field goals and 84% free throws, 8.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks. It's early, and we all know his propensity to get injured, but his owners have to be pleased with this production. Anthony Carter's terrific play should pretty much cease once Chauncey takes over PG duties, so feel free to cut him. Linas Kleiza isn't looking good right now, averaging just 5.8 points in 22 minutes per game. Finally, it doesn't look like Antonio McDyess will actually join the Nuggets, good news for owners of Nene and K-Mart. Pistons The big trade has re-ordered some fantasy values in Detroit. Rodney Stuckey appears to be in line for starters minutes, although he won't necessarily join the starting lineup right away. Richard Hamilton could see fewer shot attempts now that Allen Iverson is the Pistons' number-one option on offense...but the bigger concern is Michael Curry's plan to eventually slide Hamilton into a sixth-man role. Tayshaun Prince will be relied upon more as a playmaker, a point-forward if you will, and should see a general increase in production as a result. Antonio McDyess is expected to re-sign with Detroit after the mandatory 30-day waiting period, but in the meantime both Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson will get a boost in minutes. Pacers This season is young, but Danny Granger is already returning elite value. He is averaging 25 points on 40% shooting, 2.0 three pointers, 88% free throws (8.3 attempts per game), four rebounds, 1.3 steals and a miraculous 2.3 blocks. With numbers like that, we're willing to overlook his 4.3 turnovers. T.J. Ford is averaging 17 points but his only handed out four assists per game with a scant 0.7 steals. Mike Dunleavy's knee injury is becoming a real concern. He has tendinitis and a developing bone spur, and the knee hasn't responded very well to treatment and rest. Marquis Daniels has played very well in his absence, averaging 14.7 points on 45% shooting, seven rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.7 blocks in 37 minutes per game. Rasho Nesterovic is currently out with an ankle injury, and Jeff Foster could have some value in the upcoming four-game period. Heat Mario Chalmers set a new Heat franchise record on Wednesday with nine steals, opening plenty of eyes. He will be inconsistent, par for the course for a rookie point guard, but deserves to be owned (and started) in most formats. Dwyane Wade finally regained his shooting touch, and is contributing in every category besides three pointers (and free throws, where he is shooting 74%). Udonis Haslem has been solid but unspectacular, while Mark Blount (11 minutes per game) is a complete afterthought. The following players simply cannot be relied upon, and are showing no signs of breaking out any time soon: Yakhouba Diawara, Marcus Banks, Chris Quinn, Dorell Wright and Shaun Livingston. Daequan Cook has some value, however inconsistent, as long as James Jones is out with his wrist injury. Bucks Michael Redd's sprained ankle kept him out on Wednesday, allowing Richard Jefferson to go off for a season high 32 points. Redd is expected back as soon as Friday, so he should be safe for the upcoming period. UPDATE: Redd is actually out on Friday and probably Saturday, so be sure to check his status before using him.Ramon Sessions played plenty of shooting guard alongside Luke Ridnour while Redd was out...the combination was very effective, and could be explored more throughout the season. Session isn't guaranteed 30 minutes per game, but he has earned a significant chunk of playing time and should at least be owned in all leagues. Charlie Villanueva is averaging just 22 minutes and has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. Most disturbing for CV's owners is the emergence of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, whom Scott Skiles has called the Bucks best defensive player. Skiles hinted during the preseason that he might eventually slide Villanueva into the second unit, where his scoring would be more needed (simultaneously giving the starting until a defensive boost). Keep a very close eye on Mbah a Moute. Andrew Bogut is quietly struggling, most notably in his 33% free throw shooting and 3.8 turnovers per game. Teams are locking down on him in the post, and the Bucks don't have another legitimate post presence to deflect all the attention. Nets I'm all for trading for Devin Harris right away. He is off to a very slow start, averaging just 12.3 points on 30% shooting, 3.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 0.3 steals and 2.3 turnovers. He has yet to make a three-pointer this season. He is, however, much more talented than those numbers indicate and will undoubtedly turn things around in the next few weeks. Beyond Harris and Vince Carter (who is off to a strong start), the Nets don't have many great fantasy options. Yi Jianlian (10.7 points on 41% shooting, 6.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks) has been decent. Bobby Simmons (seven points on 32% shooting) has been bad. Josh Boone had one big game but will be inconsistent all season, and the same goes for Brook Lopez. Knicks Jamal Crawford's preseason struggles have carried over into the regular season. He is averaging 2.5 three-pointers, but his shooting just 40% with a 3.5 assists and 2.3 turnovers in 34 minutes per game. Expect him to get back on track before too long, though the same cannot be said for Chris Duhon. Duhon is a capable PG, but nothing special. For fantasy purposes, he's a bit of a liability because of his poor shooting (38%). The terrific play of Nate Robinson (15.8 points, 2.5 three-pointers, 4.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals in 28 minutes per game) is also concerning for Duhon, though Mike D'Antoni said recently that he doesn't plan to shuffle his starting lineup. David Lee has been a minor disappointment but will pick it up as the season progresses, while Eddy Curry isn't even a blimp on the radar. Oh wait, yes he is. Thunder Kevin Durant's 41% shooting and lack of rebounds (3.8) and assists (1.5) are an obvious concern. Jeff Green has been mediocre, but has enough multi-cat potential to be worth hanging on to. The Thunder frontcourt is a fantasy wreck, as Johan Petro continues to start at center while Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith scramble for minutes at PF and backup center. Collison has the most value of the three, but even he is only worth starting because of the four-game period. Earl Watson (25% shooting, 5.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 turnovers) continues to start, but I think Russell Westbrook (11.5 points on 38% shooting, 1.0 threes, 3.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.3 turnovers) will overtake him before long. Oklahoma City doesn't have much to play for, besides pride and the attention of their new fan base, so accelerating Westbrook's development only makes sense. Magic Dwight Howard has been a monster in all the predictable areas, averaging 20.2 points on 61% shooting, 13.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 4.2 blocks. Unfortunately he's shooting 44% from the free throw line, with 10.4 attempts per game. If you own him, there is an 87% chance that you're losing FTs on a weekly basis (head-to-head leagues) or are dead last in that category (roto leagues). Rashard Lewis isn't shooting the ball particularly well (43%) but has made up for it by averaging 2.6 three pointers, 7.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.4 steals. Jameer Nelson is off to a slow start, but the Magic don't have any viable backups and I'm confident that he'll turn it around before long. J. J. Redick has fallen from sixth-man to a DNP-CD, while Keith Bogans is suddenly playing 25 minutes per game. I'm not high on Bogans' upside (6.8 points, 1.2 three-pointers, 4.2 rebounds), but he's worth a look in deep leagues. 76ers Thaddeus Young has been the biggest surprise in Philly so far, leading the team with 16.5 points on 52% shooting. He already has 11 three-pointers after making just six all of last season. Elton Brand is facing routine double- and triple-teams, resulting in lower than usual scoring totals (14.7 points on 46% shooting). Andre Iguodala is shooting only 38%, but his incredible versatility guarantees that he'll always have some fantasy value...expect him to emerge as the Sixers figure out how to counteract defenses' keying in on E.B. Lou Williams (12.3 points on 39% shooting) and Willie Green (8.0 points in 19 minutes) continue to split minutes off the bench and will both be inconsistent as long as neither commands 30 per game. Suns Amare Stoudemire cemented his dominance on Wednesday with one of the best fantasy lines you'll ever see. Just for fun, here it is again: 49 points on 17-of-21 field goals and 15-of-15 free throws, 11 rebounds, six assists, five steals, two blocks and four turnovers. Steve Nash has adapted well to Terry Porter's system, though his 3.6 turnovers are killer. Shaq had a few nice games, but the Suns intend to rest him occasionally...rough news for all of his owners, regardless of format. Matt Barnes missed the Suns last game for personal reasons, but won't be out long. He just started to heat up lately, and has big value as long as he's starting ahead of injury-prone Grant Hill. One of the biggest concerns for owners is the play of backup Leandro Barbosa. He is averaging 8.8 points on 39% shooting in just 22 minutes per game. His shot will come around, but it won't matter if his playing time doesn't increase. Blazers With Greg Oden's status doubtful for the upcoming week, Joel Przybilla has temporary value for rebounds and blocks. Brandon Roy's heroic shot against the Rockets on Thursday masked his 6-of-18 shooting night, but there's nothing to worry about. The Blazers offense runs almost exclusively through Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, and both players should be able to improve their already strong numbers from last season. Rudy Fernandez has been strong off the bench (14.2 points, 2.2 three-pointers, 94% free throws) but his fluctuating minutes are a concern...especially with Martell Webster returning before long. Nicolas Batum has minimal value despite starting, since he's mostly used as a defensive specialist. Travis Outlaw has shifted to the bench, but he thrived there last season and shouldn't lose much value as long as he's getting around 30 minutes per game. If you have Jerryd Bayless, do yourself a favor and cut him. Spurs Tony Parker (33 points, 7.3 assists per game) and Tim Duncan (27 points, 11.8 rebounds per game) are carrying the Spurs, but they're not getting much help. Roger Mason (15.8 points on 61% shooting, 2.3 three-pointers, three rebounds and 2.8 assists) has been a revelation. He'll cool off soon, but should have solid value until Manu Ginobili returns sometime in mid- to late-December. Other than that, the Spurs are a fantasy graveyard. Kings Kevin Martin and John Salmons are predictably leading the team, though Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have bolstered the frontcourt production. Mikki Moore had four rebounds, total, in his first four game. He recoverd with 11 boards in his next game, but doesn't look like a great fantasy option and could lose his starting gig before long. The return of Brad Miller should hurt both Thompson and Hawes, but it's very hard to predict exactly how the rotations will pan out. If you have a suitable alternative, keep Hawes and Thompson benched this week and see what happens. Jazz Carlos Boozer's All-Star play (20.8 points on 63% shooting, 10 rebounds) has kept the Jazz undefeated at 4-0 despite the absence of Deron Williams. Williams is due back soon...check our player news for the latest updates, but it sounds like he'll be a safe start this week. Andrei Kirilenko has been quietly efficient in almost every category, though his production should diminish once Williams returns to handle all the playmaking duties. Mehmet Okur looks very active early on, and his three-point shooting (currently at 11%) will only improve. |
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| | #29 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Wired: Week 3 Waiver Wired was originally scheduled to run earlier than Sunday, but due to some early-season issues, Sunday it is. I've decided to break it down into Tiers. These Tiers should not be confused for our regular Tiers, which are used in the NBA Season Pass and Draft Guide. This set of Tiers is simply based on fantasy free agents from week to week. However, if you're interested in seeing how the numbers break down in your league and finding out who you should start each week, the Season Pass will help you out. Tier 1 should include some guys who have already been snagged in your league. But if a Tier 1 player is still available, you should probably do what you can to pick him up. Tier 2 players are attractive options in deeper leagues and are likely available in many leagues. Tier 3 players are the ones who are still flying below the radar and may have some value in the future. They're also guys you might be able to use currently in a deep league. Guards Tier 1: Roger Mason Jr., Marquis Daniels, Larry Hughes, Ramon Sessions, Kelenna Azubuike, Delonte West, Chris Duhon, Rafer Alston, Beno Udrih, Nate Robinson, Rudy Fernandez Mason Jr. – On fire, tons of minutes, no Tony Parker. Get him in your lineup with four games Daniels – Still no word on return of Mike Dunleavy and Daniels is on fire. Play him Hughes – Not back yet, but loss of Hinrich improves outlook Sessions – Dr. A still not a believer, but tough to argue with great numbers Azubuike – Up and down under Nellie, but looks great right now w/o Maggette West – Streaky, but may be the best starting guard on the Cavs Duhon – Great lines Friday and Sunday, but don't expect much scoring Alston – Still the starter, but struggling. Start him at your own risk. Udrih – Playing a little better, but a long way to go in meeting expectations Nate – Has been fantastic off Knicks bench. Threes and steals galore Rudy – Tons of threes, chance to eventually start. Don't sleep on him. Tier 2: Flip Murray, C.J. Watson, Mickael Pietrus, Brevin Knight, Ronnie Brewer, D.J. Augustin, George Hill, Maurice Evans, Rodney Stuckey, Michael Finley, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Eric Gordon, Sebastian Telfair, Randy Foye, Aaron Brooks, Russell Westbrook, Earl Watson, Ricky Davis, Nick Young Murray – Playing well off bench, increased role without Josh Smith C.J. Watson – Nellie's new starting PG, but for how long? Pietrus – Somehow scoring in Orlando's offense Knight – Short-term assists with Deron out Brewer – Hot after Sunday's game, steals galore? Augustin – Quietly working way into rotation Hill – Could start for a month for Parker. Watch closely Mo Evans – Extra minutes with loss of Josh Smith Stuckey – Will still play, albeit off Pistons' bench Finley – Awful Friday, but minutes will be there for depleted Spurs Lowry/Conley – Frustrating timeshare, tough to pick one Gordon – Minutes are suddenly there, grab him in deep leagues Telfair – Starting for now, but not forever Foye – Lost job to Telfair, but should get it back at some point Brooks – Will push Alston all year Westbrook – Not great yet, but good times ahead Watson – Starting for now, useful in deep leagues Davis – Getting minutes, but not doing much with them Young – Suddenly scoring, just two games this week Tier 3: Chris Quinn, Desmon Farmer, Marcus Williams, Juan Dixon, Charlie Bell, Willie Green, Lou Williams, Bobby Brown Quinn – Suddenly 3-point specialist off bench, could start if Mario struggles Farmer – Who? Watch him for depleted Spurs Marcus – Is eventually going to be given starting role for Nellie Dixon – Big game over the weekend for struggling Wiz Bell – Only useful if Redd is out – at least for now Green – Changes coming to Philly's lineup? Watch him. Williams – Ditto Brown – If Udrih struggles, could end up starting Forwards Tier 1: Marvin Williams, Jeff Green, Wilson Chandler, Thaddeus Young, David Lee, Anderson Varejao, Tayshaun Prince, Matt Barnes, Brandan Wright, Hakim Warrick, Tyrus Thomas, Chris Wilcox, Charlie Villanueva Marvin – I love him. Should see bump in everything without Josh Smith Green – Suddenly hot and producing. Pick him up Chandler – Full-time starter? Maybe. Worth owning in all leagues Young – Should not be available in your league Lee – Benched for now, but too good not to own Varejao – Coming on as Big Ben falls Prince – May be second leading scorer behind AI Barnes – Baby crisis almost over, roll with him this week Wright – Maybe, maybe not. Will Nellie stick with him? Yes if you need blocks Warrick – I closed the book on him too quickly. Solid minutes off bench Ty Thomas – Blocking shots off bench. Could start again Wilcox – Can't stay this quiet all season Charlie V – Inconsistent as they come, but lightning in a bottle if timing's right Tier 2: Andrea Bargnani, Andres Nocioni, Yi Jianlian, Travis Outlaw, Gerald Green, James Posey, Ime Udoka, Mikki Moore, Quentin Richardson, Carl Landry, Darrell Arthur, Jamario Moon, Francisco Garcia Bargnani – Playing well every other game. Yours if you need threes and blocks Nocioni – Should come on without Hinrich around Yi – Inconsistent as anything, but potential is there Outlaw – Bench role should serve him well Green – Started Sunday, coming on. Watch him Posey – Threes and steals are his middle name Udoka – Increased role with all the injuries Moore – Somehow still starting, for now QRich – Trending down, but could get hot Landry – Suddenly getting late-game run Arthur – Starting, but losing minutes to Warrick Moon – Lack of points is tough, but will get steals, blocks and threes Garcia – Back in a few weeks, you might want to stash him Tier 3: Jared Dudley, Brandon Bass, Anthony Randolph, Desmond Mason, Nicolas Batum Dudley – Nothing to write home about, but starting Bass – Lack of center in Dallas makes him intriguing Randolph – Will get the call if Wright fails for GSW Mason – Not a fan, but could have some nice lines Batum – Starter in name only Centers Tier 1: Kevin Love, Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Nick Collison, Jeff Foster, Josh Boone, Joel Przybilla Love – What's not to love now that he's starting? Noah – Suddenly relevant with Ty's benching Hawes – Surprising threes, played well in first game off bench Collison – Four games this week and still starting Foster – Good play with Rasho out Boone – Inconsistent, but great when game is on Przybilla – Solid fill-in for Oden Tier 2: Zaza Pachulia, Aaron Gray, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Johan Petro Zaza – Could start in place of Josh Smith Gray – Could be starting for a while, but not a great option Brook – Will have occasional big line Robin – Nice play when Shaq's out Blatche – Doghouse a problem, but will play some McGee – Could end up starting over Etan Thomas Petro – Keep your eye on starting center Tier 3: Solomon Jones Solo - Got run in last game, keep your eye on him |
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| | #30 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Not So Smoov Many of the injuries this week happened on Saturday or Sunday and we probably won't have updates until the afternoon. That's when the beat writers start filing their reports from Monday's practices, etc. So I expect this to be a busy afternoon, as most Mondays are. Here's what we know. Touch Me I'm Sick Michael Redd – ankle – Minor injury now major problem. Start at own risk. Drew Gooden – ankle – Missed Saturday, could return Tuesday. Risky. Kirk Hinrich – thumb – Out for three months. Larry Hughes – shoulder – Should return this week. Pick him up and bench him. Tim Thomas – ankle – Looks like a severe sprain, bench him for now. Josh Smith – ankle – Out 2-4 weeks. Flip Murray, Solo Jones and Zaza get bump. Shawn Marion – finger/groin/nose – Banged up and struggling. Weigh options. Deron Williams – ankle – Keep him benched for now. Kevin Martin – ankle – Left Sunday. Not serious injury, but risky this week. Francisco Garcia – calf – Out a couple more weeks. Eddy Curry – knee- No structural damage, but no spot in the rotation, either. Josh Howard – wrist – Sat Sunday, iffy for Tuesday. Struggling either way. Devin Harris – ankle – Out Saturday, iffy tonight vs. Miami. 38 in last game. Chris Andersen – ribs – Out a few weeks. Kenyon Martin – wrist – Sat Sunday, risky this week. Rasho Nesterovic – ankle – Iffy this week, Jeff Foster playing well. Mike Dunleavy – knee – So little info out of Indy. Keep him reserved. Rodney Stuckey – dizziness – Could be heart issue. Bench/cut this week. Shane Battier – foot – Swelling a setback. Keep him benched. Tony Parker – ankle – Out 2-4 weeks. Hello Roger Mason & George Hill. Manu Ginobili – ankle – Looks close. Could play in Nov. so pick him up. Matt Barnes – babies – Drama should be wrapped up in time for Monday game. Chris Wilcox – knee – Didn't look bad on TV, but keep benched for now. Greg Oden – foot – Rumors of Wednesday return. Not holding our breath. Al Harrington – back – Who knows if he'll play when healthy. Bench. Corey Maggette – hamstring – Hamstrung is more like it. Bench for now. Monta Ellis – ankle – Targeting January, but I think that's optimistic. Antonio Daniels – knee – Iffy, but probably not worth starting anyway. Gilbert Arenas – knee – Still talking December…We'll see. Personally, I may be benching Devin Harris, Josh Howard and Matt Barnes. I'd really like to bench Shawn Marion, but that's a tough one in a 30-team league, plus it sounds like he'll play. I also own Kevin Martin and haven't yet made a decision. Just like many of you, I will be watching the Rotoworld Wire this afternoon for updates on many of my own players. The Season Pass won't tell you if Kevin Martin is going to play Tuesday, but it will help you with all your tough lineup decisions. We use the latest trends and data to formulate projections for the upcoming week every Sunday and rank players by tiers to make your decisions easier. In addition, the Buy Low, Sell High column is there, and is always popular. Shawn Marion, anyone? What You Missed If you were out having fun this weekend, here are some headlines you might have missed. Josh Smith (ankle), Tony Parker (ankle) and Kirk Hinrich (thumb) all suffered major injuries. Smith was playing very well, Parker was coming off a 55-point game and Hinrich was quickly becoming one of the most frustrating fantasy players to own. Flip Murray looks like the best pickup from the Hawks right now, but I expect a few surprising lines from Zaza Pachulia, while Solomon Jones looks like a decent pick up if you're in a very deep league. If Al Horford can't get it going now, I'm not sure he's going to. And in case you hadn't noticed, Marvin Williams has put up a couple pretty solid lines and should be about ready to take off once he gets some confidence. The Lakers and Hawks are the only remaining undefeated teams. I think it was in last week's chat that I predicted a 6-0 start for the Hawks before they travel to Boston for Game 7. And if they win at Chicago on Tuesday, it looks like that's what will happen. And whether or not they are undefeated when they roll into Boston on Wednesday, they're going to be amped after getting housed in every away game in last year's playoff series against the C's. Devin Harris torched Allen Iverson for 38 points on Friday night, spoiling AI's debut with the Pistons. Of course, Harris only managed two assists that night, effectively spoiling my liquor. With Parker going down Friday night, the Spurs got destroyed by the Heat and played a handful of guys you've probably never even heard of. I even picked up Desmon Farmer in the 30-team league and can't wait to see how that turns out. Roger Mason Jr. looks like this year's Jose Calderon, while rookie George Hill is about to get a starting gig, as long as Gregg Popovich isn't pulling our leg. And keep your eye on Michael Finley. He was terrible Friday, but I can't imagine him not contributing with things looking so bleak. Manu Ginobili is actually practicing and dunked yesterday. I think he's about ready to play, but you can bet Pop isn't going to rush him back too soon. Yes, the Spurs need to start winning if they're going to make the playoffs, but a setback to Manu would be devastating. I do think he'll play before December gets here though. Last Spurs thing…Pop looked up in the huddle on Friday and said "Who are all you guys?" which is pretty funny. Then Tim Duncan extended his hand and said, "Tim Duncan, been here 11 years," or something like that. At least they're able to laugh through the tears. Kevin Love and Sebastian Telfair moved into the starting lineup for the Wolves (Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes to bench) and the Bulls are shaking their starting five up, too. Ben Gordon started for Hinrich Saturday, while Tyrus Thomas was back in for an injured Drew Gooden, but nothing is set in stone here. The return of Larry Hughes is just going to add more confusion. Speaking of Ty Thomas, he's played a little better the last couple games, and just like last year, I'm still hanging on. Love should be grabbed in all leagues. Did you catch Jason Kidd's line from Friday night? 22 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, one steal, two blocks, six 3-pointers and 8-of-14 shooting!! Wow. That line rivals any of the 5x5's we've seen from Andrei Kirilenko, etc. And keep your eye on Gerald Green. He double-doubled last night in a start for Josh Howard and could be ready to go on a run. And speaking of the Mavericks…Without Howard last night they lost to the Clippers, giving Baron Davis' new team its first win of the season. And speaking of Baron, how annoying has this year been? I benched him in Week 1 because he wasn't expected to play (but did), benched him in Week 2 because he was iffy with the hip (he played) and am now benching him for Week 3 with just two games. Hopefully he comes out of those in one piece so I can actually start using him. O.J. Mayo blew up for 31 points, eight boards, three assists and four 3-pointers last night, while Nene hit 8-of-10 shots for 18 points, 12 boards, three assists, a steal and a block in the same game. On the flip side, Rudy Gay was just 4-of-17 (0-of-7 from downtown) and committed six turnovers, but did finish with 16 points, seven boards, four assists, three steals and two blocks. He's not been great thus far, but I find it hard to believe he is actually going to be a bust. I was torn between him and Danny Granger, but it looks like Granger was the right all at this point. And I can't figure out what the deal is with J.R. Smith. He's been terrible since Iverson was traded and had five fouls and just four points in 15 minutes last night. I still haven't decided if I'm starting him this week. He should be blowing up, but doesn't even look like he cares. But my guess is that if I bench him, he'll have the week of his life. Brad Miller has looked solid in his return, while Spencer Hawes has had a couple productive lines off the bench. I guess we have our answer. Jason Thompson is the big loser here, Miller is worth starting in most leagues and Hawes looks like a solid role player worthy of a flex option in your fantasy league (or starting second center in deep ones). Five games on Monday…Enjoy OKC @ Indiana Portland @ Orlando New Jersey @ Miami Toronto @ Boston Memphis @ Phoenix Rock and Roll update This week I had the pleasure of getting my arse handed to me by two rock stars. Parker Gispert, lead singer of the Whigs, took advantage of the fact I started Al Harrington (Tayshaun Prince and Nene on the bench) to take me out in one league behind the super powers of his Shaquille O'Neal. And then Joanna Bolme of SM and the Jicks blindsided me in another league, which happens to be the one where I'm missing Baron. I got off to a hot start in both those leagues, but this just wasn't my week. Coming back strong in this one though. And hopefully you are too. |
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| | #31 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Lee side of the storm? Welcome dear readers to Position Battles: Round Three. It's a mixed bag this week. There are a few clear-cut battles, one showdown that may or may not take place at an undetermined point in the future, one battle between an untested rookie and an unimpressive veteran...read on and you'll see what I mean. Also...if you haven't subscribed toRotoworld's NBA Season Pass, what are you waiting for! It is chock-full of exclusive columns, updated rankings, customizable roster reports, schedule grids and everything else you need to dominate your league. Knicks power forward: David Lee vs Wilson Chandler David Lee was high on everyone's sleeper lists this year, and when he began the season in the starting lineup (at power forward or center, it was hard to tell) it seemed like he would finally break out. Unfortunately, his numbers have actually dipped across the board this season. The most notable drops are in field goal percentage (45%, down from 55% last season), free throw percentage (68%, down from 82% last season) and rebounds (6.2, down from 8.9 last season). The final insult for his owners was when Wilson Chandler replaced him in the starting lineup last Friday. Lee has not adjusted to coach Mike D'Antoni's system as well as most people expected. Instead of fulfilling his potential, he has regressed and seems tentative on both ends of the court. The new gameplan requires Lee to spend more time out of the paint, where he seems passive...hence the reduced rebound totals. He is no longer untouchable in trade talks, and at this point a change of location might be the best thing for his disappointed owners. Hang on to him and hope for the best, because right now his trade value is too low to get much in return. Wilson Chandler, meanwhile, has increased his value to the Knicks. D'Antoni likes his mobility and versatility on offense and, although it is not official, it's starting to seem like he'll remain a starter for the rest of the year. Things could change when Jared Jeffries returns, since D'Antoni envisions Jeffries playing center, potentially pushing Zach Randolph to power forward and Chandler to the bench. There is also the variable of a trade at some piont, so I'm liking Chandler as a sell-high candidate. His averages this season (13 points on 42% shooting, six rebounds and one steal in 29 minutes per game) are encouraging but not overwhelming. His starting job is promising but not guaranteed. Neither are his fantasy prospects. Bulls shooting guard: Ben Gordon vs. Larry Hughes Kirk Hinrich's unexpected thumb surgery has cracked Chicago's backcourt wide open. What was once a glut of guards is suddenly a thin rotation, forcing the Bulls to consider using Luol Deng as a guard while scanning the league for cheap veteran help. Ben Gordon has been the immediate beneficiary of extra playing time, as he slid into the starting five once Hinrich went down. Naturally, all of Gordon's owners hope that he remains there. He leads the Bulls in nearly every offensive category, including points (20.0), field goal percentage (49.5%), free throw percentage (84%) and three-point percentage (46%). He scored 29 points in his first start of the season, and his productivity will be hard for coach Vinny Del Negro to ignore. Unfortunately, his incredible ability to score in bunches off the bench, coupled with his diminutive size for a two-guard, might force Del Negro to move him back to the bench at some point. Regardless, Gordon will be relied on very heavily while Hinrich is sidelined, and should be a very productive fantasy player for at least the next 12+ weeks. Larry Hughes is aiming to return from his dislocated shoulder sometime this week. Whether or not he will be in the starting lineup is still unknown. The Bulls like Hughes' size alongside Derrick Rose, but Thabo Sefolosha can fill a similar role and Ben Gordon is obviously deserving of bigger minutes. Hughes isn't even an eighth of the fantasy player he was in 2004-2005. A career 41% shooter (75% from the free throw line), he no longer racks up enough rebounds, assists or steals to justify starting in most fantasy leagues. Stash him on your bench if you have an available spot, but don't get your hopes up. He'll also be getting up to speed after missing over three weeks with his injury, so at the very least keep him sidelined since we've seen him produce. Pacers shooting guard: Marquis Daniels vs. the ghost of Mike Dunleavy So this isn't exactly a position battle. It's more a look ahead at a future position battle. Marquis Daniels has been terrific filling in for the injured Mike Dunleavy (knee tendinitis). In six games this season, all starts, Daniels is averaging 14.8 points on 44% field goals and 92% free throws, 0.7 threes, 6.3 rebounds, three assists and 1.3 steals. The free throw percentage could be a mirage—he is a 74% career free throw shooter—but everything else he is capable of sustaining. When Dunleavy returns (or if?), I imaging Daniels would eventually slide back to the bench...though he would still get 30+ minutes as the team's sixth-man. Dunleavy could also be worked back slowly off the bench, especially if the Pacers are still playing at a high level. Either way, Daniels has significant and lasting fantasy value...congratulations if you were savvy enough to scoop him off of the junk heap early this season. Dunleavy's inactivity has been a disaster for his owners. The severity of his injury wasn't known when most fantasy drafts took place (actually, it still isn't), leading to his being taken around the fourth- or fifth-round of most drafts. The latest news is that Dunleavy's knee isn't responding well and a bone spur has begun to develop. Surgery is reportedly not being discussed as an option (despite some rumors to the contrary), which is at least some solace for his disheartened owners. Hang onto him and hopefully we'll get some good news in the next few weeks. Bobcats point guard: Raymond Felton vs. D.J. Augustin I'm not even sure where to start with the Bobcats. Felton has been spotty so far this season, though his recent play has made up for an atrocious, cold-shooting start. He has actually raised his FG% to 48% and his FT% to 87%, both nearly 10 points higher than his career averages. What concerns me about Felton's production this season is his dropping minutes. He is playing just over 31 minutes a game, compared to 38 minutes a game last year. So far the only manifestation, statistically, has been a drop in points (from 14.4 to 11.8) and assists (from 7.4 to just 4.8). Once his field goal percentages drop to his usual 40% range, that line will be none too impressive. Throw in the slow but inevitable emergence of rookie point guard D.J. Augustin and it's hard to like Felton's long-term prospects...trade him while he still has mediocre value, if you find the right offer. D.J. Augustin, meanwhile, has shown incremental improvement off the bench. After starting the season 0-of-7 from downtown, he has now made 5-of-11 in the last three games. He still doesn't have more than five assists in a game, and has just two steals on the season, but that's to be expected from a rookie playing 22 minutes off the bench. Obviously, he's not someone you can rely on right now. But he is a favorite of coach Larry Brown, who is notoriously hard on his PGs, and could emerge as a serious sleeper late in the season. Watch him, but do so from a distance. Spurs point guard: George Hill vs. Jacque Vaughn Gregg Popovich has not revealed who will start while Tony Parker is sidelined with his Grade-Two ankle sprain. In fact, when asked who will start Tuesday's game, Pop replied, "The chances of my sharing that with you are less than if a meteor were to strike the Earth." Yikes. Now, many of you will read this after Tuesday's game, and will therefore have more information that I do at this moment. But I'll give it a shot. My educated guess? George Hill will start for San Antonio. There have been reports that the Spurs are leaning toward the rookie PG, whose poise has continually impressed the coaching staff. He has freakish length for a 6'2" guard, and should be adept at getting into passing lanes and even blocking a few shots. Will he score or dish out enough assists to be worth owning in fantasy leagues? I'm not too sure about that, and we've seen so little of him this season that exploring the statistics isn't helpful. But with Jacque Vaughn and Roger Mason both capable of taking over PG duties, I'm not expecting too much. Stash him if you're in a deep league, or have an open roster spot, but otherwise I think the wait-and-see approach is prudent. After all, a rookie PG with a one-month expiration date isn't anything to get excited about. Jacque Vaughn, a 12 year veteran, has not averaged 20 minutes in a season since 2002-2003. He is averaging under 11 minutes in three games this season, and simply isn't a solution for the Spurs problems...in the short- or long-term. He will provide invaluable on-the-job training for Hill, but I don't expect him to have significant value even with Parker sidelined. I will leave you with one random quote from Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni, not because it's relevant to any of these position battles, but because it is funny. Zach Randolph grabbed 14 rebounds in Sunday's game. Afterward, D'Antoni remarked to reporters, "It's unbelievable. The guy can't jump at all." I have no idea what Z-Bo's vertical leap is (measured in inches or millimeters, I wonder?), but in his defense he does have 53 rebounds in the past four games. Give him a break, coach. |
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| | #32 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Durant on rye, hold the Mayo With all the early injuries in the NBA it can be tricky setting a lineup if you're in a weekly league. I had some tough decisions to make with Matt Barnes, Kevin Martin, Shawn Marion, Michael Redd and Devin Harris. But thanks to the crack staff at Rotoworld watching the news wires, we had timely and accurate updates on all those guys yesterday. That allowed owners of Barnes to start him with confidence (well, at least from a health standpoint), while it became clear well before game time that Redd and Harris were no-go's. We were on Kev-Mart watch all day but his status wasn't revealed until around the time the early games were starting. At least owners were aware there was a potential problem brewing there from earlier updates. I benched Martin on a hunch, and it worked out, as he's expected to miss 7-10 days. Shawn Marion was a bit tricky and I had him in my lineup. His "late scratch" not only caught us by surprise, but his Heat teammates and the Nets were expecting him to play as well. All I know is that when many of you went to set your lineups yesterday, there wasn't necessarily a "red cross" next to all of these guys' names. Trouble setting the right lineup? Let the Season Pass help! Take Me Down to the Infirmary – Tuesday edition I usually run this report on Mondays only, but there is enough new info for a Tuesday edition, as well. Chris Wilcox – knee – Missed Monday, iffy for next one. Devin Harris – ankle – Missed Monday, iffy for Wednesday. Mehmet Okur – personal – In Turkey. Paul Millsap looks like a great start. Michael Redd – ankle – Out Tuesday, iffy for Wednesday. Rodney Stuckey – heart – No traveling with team. Shawn Marion – groin/finger/nose – Late scratch Monday, iffy Wednesday. Kevin Martin – ankle – Out 7-10 days from Monday. Troy Murphy – flu – Left Monday's game sick. Al Harrington – back – Out two weeks with back injury. Brandon Roy – back – Unable to walk upright after Monday's game. Josh Howard – wrist – Doubtful Tuesday, iffy for the week. Greg Oden – foot – Could play Weds if practices on Tuesday. Larry Hughes – shoulder – Could play late in week. Pick him up? Corey Maggette – hamstring – Might play limited minutes Tuesday. Kenyon Martin – wrist – Not much information out there. Questionable. News and notes from Monday's action Kevin Durant owners finally got a taste of what he can do last night when he hit 13-of-27 shots, 9-of-9 FTs and two 3-pointers on his way to 37 points, eight boards and three blocks. Wow. This may be a sign to sell high, but my guess is you've been waiting for this game to validate using a fourth-round pick on him, and have no intentions of trading him. Right on. Jeff Green and Nick Collison were both solid last night, the point guard duo of Russell Westbrook and Earl Watson struggled, and Joe Smith played well again in place of Wilcox. The Pacers got a near triple-double out of T.J. Ford, who is clearly hot, a solid line out of Marquis Daniels (again), an unexpected 15 points and four blocks out of Jeff Foster and a solid, but unspectacular line from Danny Granger in their win over the Thunder. Jarrett Jack helped fill in for Murphy and had his best line of the season with 11 points, six boards and two steals. Brandon Roy scored 27 to lead the Blazers over the Magic last night, but injured his back at the end of the game. Steve Blake blew up for 20 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals and two 3-pointers last night, and I somehow had him one of my lineups. Joel Przybilla was also in one of my lineups, but the results weren't so great. To say he was used and abused by Dwight Howard does not do what happened to him justice. And if you're worried about Travis Outlaw off the bench, the 41 minutes he logged last night should help ease your fears. The Magic got another insane line from Howard and Hedo Turkoglu blew up for "one of those games." Rashard Lewis also had "one of those games," but not in the good sense. He was 3-for-11 for six points for his second straight dud. The Raptors were taken out by the Celtics last night. It appears that the Celtics were fine with letting Jermaine O'Neal do what he wanted, but were not going to let Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon beat them. It is nice to know that JO (23 & 11) can still play ball. The C's got a huge line from Paul Pierce and solid contributions from the other two, but Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins struggled. If you picked Perk up for some blocks this week, you know how Przybilla's owners are feeling today. At least your guy had four boards and a block. Miami improved to 4-3 behind another huge line from Dwyane Wade, who hit four 3-pointers. I told Nabate Isles on his TV show (which is on Youtube) recently that Wade was going to hit threes this year, but he had not hit a single one until last night. The fact he dropped four of them could be a good sign for things to come. And is it possible Mario Chalmers has already hit a rookie wall? I speculated that he may have played his best game of the season on opening night, but I wasn't sure about it. He's looked lost over his past few games and is not an automatic start at this point. Keyon Dooling was a sneaky play last night and had 18 points, five boards and four assists in relief of injured Devin Harris. Yi Jianlian was huge, hitting 7-of-11 shots and five treys on his way to 24 points, 10 boards and a block. The lights are either on or off with Yi, sort of like they are with Andrea Bargnani. Josh Boone had five points, six boards, three blocks and a couple steals. Looks like a better option that Perk or Przybilla, at least after one game. O.J. Mayo's run for the ROY continued again last night as he hit 12-of-23 shots and three 3-pointers for 33 points, five assists and three steals. Wow. It's early, but it looks like a two-man race between Mayo and Derrick Rose. Rudy Gay struggled with his shot again but had a decent line as the Grizzlies put up a decent fight against the Suns. The Suns were not great, at least if you own Steve Nash and Shaquille O'Neal. Nash was just 3-of-11 for 12 points, six assists and six turnovers, while Shaq was 3-of-8 for nine points, five boards and zero blocks before fouling out against Marc Gasol. The good news is that Leandro Barbosa finally broke out, hitting 10-of-13 shots and two threes on his way to 27 points. Matt Barnes returned from a family emergency and had eight points, eight boards and two threes. Not a great line, but he still has the starting job and should get back into the flow soon. There are eight games tonight, and I'm obviously fired up to see the Hawks visit the Bulls and try to remain undefeated. If they win that one, they'll venture into Boston on Wednesday night with a 6-0 record. And that will be fun – even without Josh Smith. |
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| | #33 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| A new Tay in Detroit As fantasy owners, the constant struggle to stay moderately sane is predicated upon the understanding that there are rules in the world of basketball; a foundation of logic through which we are able to evaluate our key decisions. One of our critical principles (right there on page nine of the fantasy basketball charter) is that things tend to follow an established pattern. If a player shoots badly for seven years, he will probably shoot badly in year eight. If a player blocks two or more shots per game for four straight years, he will probably do the same thing in year five. And if a player coiffes his bright red hair in X unspeakably odd ways (I'm looking at you, Robert Swift), you can bet that hairstyle X + 1 (the beehive?) will be making its world premier any day now. Sometimes, of course, the pattern deviates, and when it does, it is to be evaluated and dealt with (usually with some form of panic). However, rarely does the career pattern deviate as violently as it has with a certain Detroit Pistons forward named Tayshaun Prince in 2008-09. Consider his season-by-season stats over the past five years, followed by the first seven games of this year: 2003-04: 10.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.7 3PT, 0.8 spg, 0.8 bpg 2004-05: 14.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.6 3PT, 0.7 spg, 0.9 bpg 2005-06: 14.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.8 3PT, 0.8 spg, 0.5 bpg 2006-07: 14.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.0 3PT, 0.6 spg, 0.7 bpg 2007-08: 13.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 0.7 3PT, 0.5 spg, 0.4 bpg 2008-09: 18.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.6 3PT, 0.6 spg, 0.9 bpg Notice the pattern here? Potato, potato, potato, potato, potato, HAND GRENADE. You see, when a pattern (in this case a pattern of mildly decent but unspectacular production) gets broken without warning, it's disarming. We as fantasy owners are confused. If we have the subject of the pattern breakage (Prince) on our team, we don't know what to do. Do we keep him and enjoy, or attempt to peddle him off on someone else posthaste? If he's on someone else's team, we wonder if that someone else actually knew this was coming, and if they did, we want to know where they're hiding the sports almanac. With so much production suddenly surfacing from a 28-year-old in his seventh year in the league, here are the key factors to know about the Tayshaun Prince scenario: Fact #1: He has always been a good shooter and capable scorer who has come consistently close to standout stats, but has never quite reached them. Fact #2: In late October, new Pistons coach Michael Curry went on record saying that Prince could be an All-Star this year. This originally sounded like standard coach hyperbole, but it's clear in watching Prince that he's become a big part of the Pistons offense, even with Allen Iverson in town. On Tuesday in Sacramento, Prince took 15 shots, behind only Richard Hamilton (16) and Iverson (19). Fact #3: [A small word of caution]: Prince has been obscenely hot from three-point range this year, hitting 11 of his first 17 attempts. In fact, his three-point attempts this year are not far off his average attempts for his career, and coming into this year, he had averaged 0.7 threes per game over the past five seasons. So if you're expecting the high-level three-point production to continue, you're probably being unrealistic. With all that said, and considering that we haven't seen the potato, potato, hand grenade pattern many times before, now is probably a reasonably strong time to look into selling high on Prince. While his numbers seem likely to stay at a career-best level all year, they may not look quite as good as 18.7 points, 7.7 boards and 1.6 threes for that much longer (particularly on the threes). Of course, with the knowledge that this does seem likely to be Prince's career year, owners who have unexpectedly stumbled upon a highly productive swingman can't be faulted for hanging onto their newfound favorite Piston. While I attempt to ascertain the procedure for updating the chapter on patterns in the official fantasy charter, here's a look at some other pattern-smashing performances from around the NBA: For exclusive stat projections, top 250 rankings and more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass. Nene Hilario The pattern: Talented but woefully injury-prone big man has played a total of 81 games the past three seasons and has never averaged better than 12.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg or 0.9 bpg. The reality: Through his first seven games, Nene was averaging 15.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.4 spg and 2.0 bpg, shooting 67.2 percent from the floor. Advice: In most cases, this would be a classic sell-high scenario, and maybe it is. Just be aware that the elevated production from Nene is not a fluke. He's active in the post and heavily involved in the Denver game plan. His numbers may dip a bit, but sometimes you've gotta be willing to put aside injury concerns and simply ride the wave of productivity as long as you possibly can. Spencer Hawes The pattern: Backup produces extremely well in starter's absence, but when starter returns from injury (or in this case, suspension), backup returns to being fantasy waiver wire material. The reality: Hawes has continued to be a force even after Brad Miller's return, averaging 15.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg and 1.7 bpg in 25 minutes per night in his first three games coming off the bench this year. Advice: Normally, only 25 minutes a game would be a concern, but Hawes has proven himself to be a game-changing factor for the Kings, who need to have him out on the floor (and are willing to play him alongside Miller to accomplish that). Furthermore, his minutes would likely have been higher in recent games had he not gotten into foul trouble. It's an exception to a proven rule, but it looks like both Miller and Hawes can continue to produce in this situation. Marquis Daniels The pattern: The After an outstanding stretch to close his rookie year in 2003-04 (19.2 ppg over his last 16 games), talented swingman drifts through four largely injury-plagued seasons, never rediscovering his rookie year form. The reality: After years of being dormant, Daniels (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.3 spg through his first six games) is suddenly back. Advice: Sometimes health (that of Daniels) and opportunity (injury to Mike Dunleavy) perfectly coincide. Dunleavy's eventual return will likely disrupt Daniels' mojo, but there's nothing wrong in getting a significant boost from Daniels' increased production right now, even if it's not destined to last. Derrick Rose The pattern: Rookie point guards often struggle to adjust to the NBA early on. The reality: Derrick Rose is a beast. Advice: If Rose is on your team, first and foremost, you have to be thrilled. Thrilled with yourself for drafting him, thrilled with Rose for playing so well, and thrilled with the Bulls for playing him such an outrageous amount of minutes. Actually, that last part is not quite so simple. Rose is averaging 38 minutes on the year, and has played over 40 minutes in each of his last three. His production has accordingly been tremendous, but you have to worry that those elevated minutes could eventually start to wear him down. There's no reason to get too concerned just yet, but at the same time, be wary of those burgeoning minute totals. Unless of course you think he'll follow the pattern of breaking patterns, in which case he'll completely disregard elevated minutes and the rookie wall, powering through the season unscathed. Stranger things have actually happened. And if there's any lesson we've learned here today, it's that in the world of fantasy basketball, steady patterns are never to be completely trusted. Even when you think you've understood them so well for so many years, they are still capable of behaving rather unexpectedly. |
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| | #34 |
| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| One Sizable Bandage, Please Is anyone else still mildly haunted by the lingering high definition image of the neck wound Steve Nash acquired during the Suns-Rockets fracas on Wednesday night? In the words of the doctor from There's Something About Mary, "We've got a bleeder." Having flipped the channel to that game from the Kings-Clippers game just after the scuffle occurred, I'm not even certain what the mechanics were of Nash getting that cut, but it looked as though he had been jabbed in the neck by a walrus tooth (or, alternatively, attacked by some sort of bloodthirsty intergalactic eel). Of more concern for Nash's owners than a blood-dripping neck gash that will heal thanks to the miracle of modern medicine (and band-aids) is the fact that the former MVP struggled again on Wednesday, posting 10 points, four boards and three assists. Nash's failure to produce worthy stats in four of his past five games will likely be a cause for alarm, and the impetus for a number of Nash trade offers flying around your league today. A word of caution on that front: Trading Nash might not be a bad idea in the long term, but trading stars at diminished value is not generally a good habit. Nash is far too good to struggle like this all season, and while the days of 17-18 points and 11 assists per game are almost certainly over, it will be way better than this most nights (neck gash included). Here's a look at a slew of other noteworthy occurrences from an 11-game Wednesday in the NBA: A reminder: For exclusive stat projections, top 250 rankings and more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass. The sublime, but not surprising Dwight Howard: 30 points, 19 boards, 10 blocks. He's destroying you in free throw percentage (51.5 percent), but it's difficult to harbor anger considering his other stats (23.9 ppg, 15.0 rpg, 4.4 bpg and 64.2 percent shooting). Chris Paul: 30 points, seven boards and 13 assists on 13-of-19 shooting. That sounds about right. Dwyane Wade: 36 points, six boards, eight assists, two steals and three blocks. Don't look now, but D-Wade is making an early-season push for fantasy MVP. His defensive stats (2.8 steals, 1.8 blocks) are positively absurd. You have made your father and I very proud Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala: 25 points, eight boards and three blocks for Brand, and 18 points, nine boards and 10 assists for Iggy. Both have a big game (that makes three straight for Iggy), the Sixers win, and apparently all is well in Philadelphia. Well, sort of. (See "Less than sublime," below.) Beno Udrih: 30 points, five boards, seven assists. If you were able to stay patient during his slump, well done. The Slovenian Pistol (completely improvised nickname) is back. Wilson Chandler: 27 points and seven boards on 11-of-12 shooting (including 4-of-4 from three-point range). Looks like he wants to keep that starting job. Nate Robinson: 21 points on 8-of-8 shooting and 5-of-5 from three-point range. Just when you thought things were getting ugly in New York, Mike D'Antoni's offense goes and does something like this (132 points) – and totally redeems itself. Rudy Fernandez: 25 points, three treys, three boards, two assists, two steals and a block. We're going to have to get used to limited rebound and assist totals, but otherwise the rookie looks terrific. T.J. Ford: 18 points, eight rebounds, nine assists, three steals. He's narrowly missed three straight triple-doubles and can't possibly keep rebounding like this, but it's rather enjoyable at the moment. Jeff Green: Moved from small forward to shooting guard in place of Kevin Durant (sore ankle) and finished with 25 points, 10 boards and three treys. He's not shooting well (38.0 percent), but otherwise Green looks pretty strong in his second year. JaVale McGee: That makes two double-doubles in his past three games. He'll probably be inconsistent, but now's the time to make the move if you need boards and blocks. Caron Butler: Normally Butler scoring 27 (with nine boards, three assists, a steal, a three and two blocks) wouldn't warrant a mention because it's relatively commonplace, but his owners have been a little bit concerned, so Butler is here is a means of saying: All is well. This was a vintage line from Butler, and more should be on the way. Kevin Garnett: 25 points, 12 boards, four assists, two blocks. There's been some concern about KG's scoring, but that makes two straight 20-plus point games. He's not likely to average 20-plus on the season, but you'll get your 18 or 19 per game before it's over. Brad Miller: 16 points, 11 boards, eight assists on 7-of-10 shooting. Recovers well from a putrid (and fluky) 2-for-16 shooting performance one night earlier. Jermaine O'Neal: 19 points, 11 boards, two blocks. Two straight strong games, and suddenly a nice window is opening up to trade him. Go through the window. Less than sublime, but not panic-inducing Samuel Dalembert and Thaddeus Young: Because apparently all can't truly be well in Philadelphia, on a night when Brand and Iguodala went off, Dalembert and Young made stinkies. For Dalembert, this was simply a case of foul trouble, and for Young, it was simply a case of not having a very good game. They'll be fine. Al Horford: One game after his 27-point, 17-rebound, six-block tour de force, he finished with just five points and three boards (but did add two steals and two blocks). Three key factors here: 1) Foul trouble, 2) the Celtics front line and 3) second night of a back-to-back on the road. I'd be floating trade offers today to see if the huge game from two nights ago has already been forgotten. Jose Calderon: Easily his worst game of the year (four points, six assists in 25 minutes), but he was bothered by a hamstring injury. The good news is the injury doesn't sound like anything serious. Andrei Kirilenko: This was his first bad game of the season (three points, two boards, three assists), and he sprained his index finger in the process. Obviously the bad game/injury combo is about as frustrating as it gets for fantasy owners, but this injury doesn't appear to be anything major, so Kirilenko should be fine in the long run. Not what we wanted to see Greg Oden: A friend of mine watching Oden on Wednesday commented that he runs like Shaq – when Shaq was 34. He later revised his statement to say that Shaq (at age 36) actually runs better than Oden. In fairness, Oden is still getting into shape after a layoff and could eventually help you in boards and blocks, but if he's on your team, your starting lineup should have a 35-foot radius restraining order against him right now. Charlie Villanueva: Lost his starting job to The Little Prince (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) and played just 11 minutes off the bench. I'm normally a proponent of patience when it comes to players with high upside, but I can't argue with flinging Charlie V. to waivers right now. It should be noted that Villanueva did injure his hamstring in the game, which explains the low minutes. However, regardless of injuries, his production has obviously not been heading in a positive direction. As for Mbah a Moute, he can get you a handful of points and boards with the occasional steal and block thrown in, but I'm not running to the wire to pick him up in standard-sized leagues. Mario Chalmers: One day you have a lovely snowman, the next day you have a pile of mush. Just over a week ago he showed so much promise in that six-assist, nine-steal game, but things have been rather ugly since. The minutes are still there, so he's got a shot to turn it around, but at this point it's time bench him or cut him for someone productive. Strangely encouraging Russell Westbrook: Seeing Westbrook's line (30 minutes played, 13 points, five rebounds and four assists on 3-of-19 shooting), I'm inclined to quote Ron Burgundy: "I'm not even mad – that's amazing." Yes, shooting 3-of-19 is not so good, but getting 19 shots off in 30 minutes is ultimately a positive thing. Westbrook is now shooting an Alfonso Soriano batting average (.290), but the kid is eventually going to post some big fantasy lines, and I still expect it to happen sometime this year. Yi Jianlian: He didn't follow up his huge line from Monday with a monster game (11 points, eight boards, three treys), but the important thing is, he didn't disappear either. He's helping fantasy teams in points, boards, threes and blocks right now, and there's plenty to like about that. Rafer Alston: He got ejected, but was also having one of his better games of the year (15 points on 7-of-11 shooting with four assists and three steals). Then again, Aaron Brooks looked great too (19 points on 8-of-13 shooting in 25 minutes), so absolutely nothing was ultimately resolved. Rudy Gay: 20 points, three boards, three assists, two steals, two threes. Why is this encouraging? Because Gay ended a two-game stretch of going 0-for-9 from three-point range, and his outside shot has been his biggest problem on the year (he's now 8-for-40 from downtown). Once those threes start falling, the rest of his game should fall into place. Downright perplexing Andrea Bargnani: You've probably heard tell of basketball players earning the nickname "All Day" (in reference to when and how often they will score on you), but I'm pretty sure there hasn't ever been someone called "Every Other Day." That is, until now. Through eight games this year, Bargnani has gone bad game, good game, bad game, good game, bad game, good game, bad game, good game. At this point it would be a bad idea to put him in your lineup, but a reasonably good idea to stash him on your bench. Tonight Three games on the docket this evening: Denver at Cleveland, Dallas at Chicago and Detroit at Golden State. The Nuggets will hopefully get Kenyon Martin back from his wrist injury, and the J.R. Smith fans of the world have to be hoping that a national TV appearance jumpstarts the sanity-testing shooting guard. Meanwhile, I have stopped expecting anything whatsoever from Tyrus Thomas, which means he'll probably go for 13 and eight with two steals and three blocks tonight. And in the late game at Golden State, the Tayshaun Prince express attempts to keep its rather impressive momentum, while the Warriors hope to get Corey Maggette back. Of course, the all-important fact of life in Warriors land is that absolutely nothing is guaranteed (except, it would seem, for Steven Jackson's minutes). |
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| "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 64,496
| Deron, AK-47 out Friday If you own both Mehmet Okur and Leandro Barbosa in your fantasy league, these are tough times. Barbosa's mother reportedly passed away on Thursday night which means he's probably on his way to Brazil right now, sidelining him with the dreaded "out indefinitely" tag. Okur is still in Turkey attending to his ill father and also has no timetable on his return. They shouldn't be out for more than a few games each, but that's enough to cost you a win. Barbosa should be back first because his situation has closure, while I'm guessing Okur's is more of a "wait and see" thing. Tough times for both players and I wish them the best. Late news is that both Deron Williams (ankle) and Andrei Kirilenko (finger) are out for the Jazz on Friday. That means Brevin Knight, Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap should all have decent lines tonight. Get Williams and AK-47 on your bench if possible. Williams also says he's not likely to play on Saturday, either. I'm not going to say that he rushed back on the ankle too soon, but he needs to get it right before he plays again. Kirilenko can't even catch the ball right now and is not looking great for Saturday, either. www.utahjazz.ws No word of any suspensions yet from the so-called brawl on Wednesday night, but if they're coming, it will probably be announced this afternoon. The Suns have to hope they don't lose anyone as they are already short handed with Barbosa and Alando Tucker out. Matt Barnes is the most likely candidate to get a night off, so stay tuned. While Matt Carroll has been named the starter tonight in place of Jason Richardson (minor knee surgery), I fully expect Adam Morrison and D.J. Augustin to play well off the bench. Carroll is capable of scoring and hitting threes, just like Morrison, but I get the sense Augustin is going to be the one who puts up the best fantasy lines in JR's absence. Speaking of JR, those of you who read Wednesday morning that I traded J.R. Smith for Kelenna Azubuike have to be pleased. He finally snapped out of it last night, hitting two threes, scoring 18 points and grabbing four boards. You knew it was just a matter of time, so I'm hoping he's still on your roster. And Tyrus Thomas mysteriously got 33 minutes last night and produced eight points, eight boards, two blocks and two steals. Really Vinny, that's all we're looking for here. I actually had Ty and J.R. in a couple lineups last night, so I couldn't be happier. Both of these guys deserve to be owned, but certainly aren't must-starts at this point. Joakim Noah was benched last night, playing just three minutes. Still not sure why, but that certainly helped Thomas' cause. I will be discussing both players, along with anything else you want to talk about, today at 1 p.m. in the Season Pass Live Chat. And you can also check out the brand new Playing Time Report later on today in the Season Pass. Stephon Marbury and the Knicks' brass met for 45 minutes on Thursday, giving more speculation that a buyout could be in the works. I'm not going to hold my breath, nor am I going to run out and pick Marbury up across the board. But if something concrete happens and it looks like he's going to be cut loose, I'll make my move. Thursday Headlines Gordon Goes Off - Ben Gordon scored 35 points to lead the Bulls to a comeback win against the Mavericks. He's playing at a very high level right now, which is somewhat surprising. Larry Hughes is back and could hurt his value slightly, but with Kirk Hinrich out for a long time, Gordon is probably going to score a ton of points. Hey Now - Larry Hughes returned to action for the Bulls from a shoulder injury and had five points in 13 minutes. The plan is to start him once he's at full speed, so think about picking him up and stashing him. It's All Gooden - Well, not really, but Drew Gooden played last night. He had just eight points and eight boards, but should be better once he's back at 100 percent from his ankle injury. Cold as Nocioni - Andres Nocioni missed all five of his shots to finish with four points last night, but played nearly 29 minutes. He's going to have some inconsistency, but as long as the minutes are there, he's worth a look. Dampier Lives, McGee Rules - Erick Dampier exploded for 16 points, 18 rebounds and three blocks. That may have caused waiver wires everywhere to crash because that is the second straight time Damp has thrown up a monster line. But if I'm picking up a center off the wire right now, I am going to zip right past Dampier and grab Washington's JaVale McGee. Juan Dixon said recently that McGee could be the next Dwight Howard, just adding fuel to McGee's already burning fire. I picked him up where I could over the last few days and you probably should too. Howard Comes Back Strong - Josh Howard returned to action for the Mavs and had 21 points and 11 boards. He'd been out with a wrist injury and has been a little annoying to own this season, but maybe this is a sign things are about to get better. Maggette Back in Action - Corey Maggette returned last night, hitting 2-of-7 shots for 13 points, four boards and four assists. Probably not what you were looking for, and those hamstrings are probably still not right. But at least he played. Watson Gets Hot C.J. Watson had 17 points, six boards and two steals in last night's loss to Detroit. All five Warriors' starters scored between 13 and 17 points, which will not usually be the case. I own Watson in 30-deep so this is big news for me. But in normal leagues Watson should still probably be on the outside looking in. At least for now. Kwame Starts Over Amir - Kwame Brown started over Amir Johnson last night, but both players were/are useless at this point. If you're still hanging on to Amir, it's time to let go. But if you're in a keeper league, he's probably going to break out next year. Good Sign for Buike and Tayshaun - Tayshaun Prince led the Pistons in minutes last night, while Kelenna Azubuike played 44 for the Warriors. Good signs for both guys as the Tayshaun "breakout watch" continues. Biedrins' Reign Andris Biedrins double-doubled again and it wasn't a small one. Seventeen points, 19 boards and a block. Dude is on fire and that makes 16 straight, if you're scoring at home. K-Mart Freaks Out - Kenyon Martin lost it after being called for a couple tough fouls last night and berated the officials before finally leaving the game. It was nice to see him return from his wrist injury and he double-doubled, but owners have to now be worried about a possible suspension. Welcome to Mo's! - Mo Williams had a season-high 24 points to go along with six dimes as the Cavaliers rolled the Nuggets on Thursday. That was just the second time Mo has broken the 20-point plateau this season. He hit three treys on the night and could be starting to figure this whole "Cleveland thing" out. Or he could have just been inspired because the game was on national TV. Touch Me, I'm Sick Shawn Marion – groin – Feeling better, still iffy for tonight. Jason Richardson – knee surgery – Out for a few games. Carroll to start. Larry Hughes – shoulder – Played Thursday, pick him up. Rodney Stuckey – heart – Should play tonight. Just keep an eye on him. Deron Williams – ankle – Out Friday, doubtful for Saturday. Mehmet Okur – personal – Out indefinitely. Andrei Kirilenko – finger – Out Friday, doubtful for Saturday. Paul Millsap – elbow – Probable for tonight. Leandro Barbosa – personal – Out indefinitely Danilo Gallinari – back – Season could be over before it began. Al Harrington – "back" – Just waiting to be moved. Hang in there if you can. Ben Wallace – knee – Left during best game of the season. Here comes Andy? Al Jefferson – personal – Should be back Saturday, hasn't missed a game. Jose Calderon – hamstring – Very concerning injury. Hope for the best. Michael Redd – ankle – Hoping to play this weekend. Charlie Villanueva – hamstring – Questionable for Friday. Kevin Durant – ankle – Says he'll play Friday. Zaza Pachulia – shoulder – Questionable Friday. Morris Peterson – knee – Iffy for Friday. Danny Granger – quad – Should play Friday. Troy Murphy – flu – Questionable for Friday. Devin Harris – ankle – Hoping to play Friday night. Kevin Martin – ankle – Out Friday. |
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