NBA News/NBA Fantasy News 2007/2008

[Hache Man]

No Magic for Darko?
The free agent season is upon us so I thought I'd take a look at the names floating around who could end up with new teams next season. Even though the free agency period started Sunday at midnight, a few players have already locked in verbal agreements that they'll make official on July 11. Vince Carter will return to the Nets, Jason Kapono will join the Raptors and Luke Walton will remain with the Lakers.

Free Agents

1. Rashard Lewis - Forward - Seattle

The Sonics will have first crack at re-signing him and are in the driver's seat because they can offer a six-year deal, while other teams can only offer five years. He's a candidate for a sign-and-trade so he can get the six-year deal and there's already speculation that something may be in the works with Orlando. The Magic haven't even contacted their own free agent, Darko Milicic, which is a surprise, and it's not likely that he'll return to the Magic at this point. And the fact the Magic are very interested in Lewis has led us to believe the two teams are having a discussion about Lewis joining the Magic and Darko going to the Sonics. Lewis is probably going to end up with one or the other, but the Rockets are going after him heavily as well. And the fact he's from Houston could play a major role in his signing. Also on Sunday, Ray Allen pointed out that now that he's no longer with the Sonics, Lewis may not want to return. The more I think about it, the more it looks like he is going to force the Sonics into a sign-and-trade and try to go to a contender. Hello, Houston?

2. Chauncey Billups - Point Guard - Detroit

All indications are that Billups will return to the Pistons, and the fact the Raptors came to an agreement with Kapono should mean Billups returns to Detroit. The Grizzlies answered their point guard issues when they drafted Mike Conley, and the Bucks, who are also thought to be highly interested in Billups, will probably try to re-sign Mo Williams instead. Especially given the fact they didn't contact Billups on Sunday. And the Raptors are probably out of the picture after coming to an agreement with Kapono.

3. Vince Carter - Shooting Guard – New Jersey

Carter and the Nets agreed to a four-year, $61.8 million contract with a club option for a fifth season on Sunday. Needless to say, he's staying in Jersey and it sounds like there's a decent chance that Richard Jefferson will be coming back too, keeping Jason Kidd and his two running mates together again next year. Then again, Jefferson could easily end up being traded and it's believed that the Pacers are discussing him as part of a Jermaine O'Neal-to-the-Nets deal.

4. Gerald Wallace Forward - Charlotte

Rumors are circulating that Wallace has put his home up for sale in Charlotte, driving speculation that he is leaving. Wallace averaged 21.6 points and had 14 double-doubles over his last 45 games, which also helped my team in League Freak make a late-season push for the championship. The fact the Cats traded for Jason Richardson and his big contract is not going to help them in their quest to keep Wallace, but they still have a shot. The Bobcats' playoff dreams would be a lot more realistic if they keep Wallace. In addition to the Bobcats, he's been contacted by Dallas, Orlando, Milwaukee, Detroit, Miami, Portland and Golden State. And the Bobcats hands are further tied by the fact they still need to extend Emeka Okafor's contract.

5. Mo Williams - Point Guard - Milwaukee

Everyone seems to believe the Bucks will re-sign Mo Williams and the fact that they didn't contact Billups on Sunday seems to support that. Williams could still get offers that could pull him out of Milwaukee, or he could be part of a sign-and-trade, being sent out of town with Yi Jianlian. The Bucks are likely going to have to try to trade Yi, and if they can get a point guard back, Williams could become expendable. The Hawks and Grizzlies were said to initially be interested in MoWill, but they each drafted a point guard, squashing that idea. It's believed the Bucks have offered Williams a five-year, $40 million deal, which might be enough to keep him Milwaukee.

6. Darko Milicic - Forward/Center - Orlando

In the biggest surprise of Day 1 of the free agency period, the Magic supposedly have not even contacted Darko. This is shocking, as they have said all along they were going to try to keep him. It's common courtesy to contact players you're interested in (especially your own) when the bargaining window opens, so the move comes as a slap in the face to Milicic. I think that makes him a long shot to return to the Magic, and as I mentioned above, there could be a sign-and-trade deal between the Sonics and Magic in the works. I was excited to see what Darko and Dwight Howard could do alongside each other, but that's not looking likely to happen now.

7. Grant Hill - Guard/Forward - Orlando

Hill has said he wants to stay in Orlando, but he's also said he would love to play for the Suns. I'm betting he's willing to take a pay cut to have a shot at a title and my money is on him going to Phoenix. There's also talk of him returning to the Pistons or going to San Antonio. But if I had to guess, I'd say Phoenix is his most likely destination.

8. Steve Blake - Point Guard - Denver

With many teams strengthening their position at point guard through the draft, Blake's value may not be as high as originally thought. However, teams like Memphis, Atlanta and the Clippers could use some veteran leadership at the position, and Blake has proven he's a competent NBA 1. Portland, where Blake owns a home, looks like a decent candidate for his services, as well as the Lakers. It doesn't look like there's much chance he will be back in Denver next season.

9. Anderson Varejao - Power Forward - Cleveland

The Grizzlies are said to be interested in Varejao, along with several other big men, but the fact the Cavs made a qualifying offer to him suggests they want to keep him around. However, they have some luxury tax issues looming, so they are going to have to pay more than most other teams would to keep Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, who is also a restricted free agent.

10. Andres Nocioni - Forward - Chicago

The Bulls are likely to match any offer Nocioni gets and the fact he had that serious foot problem for most of last season isn't going to help him make any more money.

11. Andray Blatche - Forward - Washington

Blatche is all upside and will likely get a full midlevel offer sheet, but early indications are that the Wizards will match it. Then again, they just made a nice offer to DeShawn Stevenson, have to find a second center and still have to sign rookie Nick Young. Call him 50-50 to return to the Wiz.

12. Jason Kapono - Guard/Forward - Miami

Kapono agreed to a four-year, $24 million deal with Toronto on Sunday. He's off the market.

13. Mikki Moore - Forward/Center – New Jersey

Moore led the league in field goal percentage last season and will likely be going elsewhere for the cost of a two- or three-year deal from somebody's midlevel exception.

14. Jerry Stackhouse - Guard/Forward - Dallas

Speaking of old knees, Stack isn't getting any younger and will likely have to take a pay cut ($9.3 million last year) to stay in Dallas. But both the player and team want that to happen.

15. Chris Webber - Forward/Center - Detroit

Webber hasn't decided what he wants to do and there isn't likely to be a long line of suitors waiting for him. He has bad knees, is 34 years old and disappeared in the playoffs last month. I think he'll return to the Pistons.

Other free agents who may have some value on the fantasy landscape this season include Sasha Pavlovic (Cavs), Mickael Pietrus (Warriors), Matt Barnes (Warriors), Desmond Mason (Hornets), Earl Boykins (Bucks), DeShawn Stevenson (Wizards), Fabricio Oberto (Spurs) and Matt Carroll (Bobcats).

[Hache Man]

	Report: Blazers ink Oden to two-year deal
	Greg Oden - C - POR - Jul. 3 - 2:55 a.m. ET
	According to a report on KGW.com, the Trail Blazers signed Greg Oden, who was the No. 1 overall pick in Thursday's NBA draft, to a two-year deal on Monday. Oden's contract will be for two seasons, with a team option for the third and fourth year, according to the league's collective bargaining agreement. Oden will make $3.8 million during his rookie campaign and $4.1 in his second year with Portland, which also signed second-round picks forward Josh McRoberts and guard Taurean Green.

[Hache Man]

	Agent confirms Lewis' deal with Magic
	Rashard Lewis - F - SEA - Jul. 3 - 12:55 p.m. ET
	Tony Dutt, the agent of Rashard Lewis, has confirmed that the free agent small forward will sign a maximum deal with the Orlando Magic. "He had a comfort and a gut feeling and he feels they have a championship core, and that's what he wants to do is win a championship," Dutt said. If a championship was truly his motivation, we doubt he'd choose Orlando, but certainly the Magic is a lot closer to winning with him there. Of course, the addition of Lewis will likely mean the end of Darko Milicic in Orlando.

[Hache Man]

	Report: Billups to re-sign with Pistons
	Chauncey Billups - G - DET -
	ESPN is reporting that Chauncey Billups has agreed to a multi-year contract with the Pistons. Ric Bucher reports that Billups has now agreed to a contract with the Pistons, believed to be for five years and $60 million. This story first broke on Wednesday, but Billups' agent, Andy Miller, angrily called the report untrue. It sounds like Billups is officially ready to rejoin the Pistons, so fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Source: ESPN.com

[Hache Man]

Things looking up for Nelson
There's not much to be gained by studying summer league action in the fantasy arena, so I'll take a look at some guards who should qualify as sleepers heading into the new season. The big stories out of summer league are that Greg Oden is racking up fouls and missed free throws like nobody's business, while Marco Belinelli torched the Hornets for 37 points on 14-of-20 shooting on Saturday. More on him later.

Sleepers – The Guards

Jameer Nelson - Orlando Magic

Nelson was highly disappointing over the last couple years after showing so much promise, but it's possible that his less than stellar play was due to a strained relationship with coach Brian Hill. Now he'll get a fresh perspective on things from Stan Van Gundy, has one of the league's best offensive players to dish to in Rashard Lewis, and should target Dwight Howard, the best young big man in the game, with the rest of his passes. Things are really setting up well for Nelson to have a big year and I think he should be targeted somewhere in the fourth to sixth rounds this season. He could end up being a disappointment again, but the odds are clearly stacked in his favor with the new-look Magic.

Monta Ellis - Golden St. Warriors

I was all set to praise Ellis today, calling him the best sleeper candidate out of all the guards. I still think he's going to be very good and the secret is already out on him anyway, after last year's surprising performance. That said, there are whispers in Golden St. that rookie Marco Belinelli, who scored 37 points on Saturday, is going to challenge Ellis for the starting job. Add to that the rumored concerns about Ellis' choice of friends and their behavior at Warriors' games last year, and he looks like a little less than a sure thing.

We know Ellis can play and we know Don Nelson likes him. What we don't know is whether Nelson will return to coach the team this season (he wants more money, while the Warriors are still paying Mike Montgomery), or what his role will be if Belinelli is really as good as advertised.

But Jason Richardson is now out of the way, which should form a clear path for Ellis to start alongside Baron Davis all season. I'm going to forget about Belinelli for now, and say that Ellis should be at least as good as he was last season, when he averaged 16.5 points, 4.1 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting 47% from the floor. No one is going to sleep on Ellis this season, and how high you want to take him is a personal decision. He came in as the 58th ranked player (cumulatively) and I see no reason why he won't be worth a fourth-round pick this year with Richardson in Charlotte. Then again, there are still several things to be decided in Golden St. in the next few weeks.

Kareem Rush - Indiana Pacers

The Pacers quietly signed shooting guard Kareem Rush last week, and while he's not likely to be a savior for the Pacers, he could play a huge role for a team desperately seeking outside shooting since No. 31 called it a career a few years back. Rush has got an excellent chance to start alongside Jamaal Tinsley, as Mike Dunleavy looks more and more like a career bench player with every year that passes. If Rush has a good training camp, his value will continue to climb, but as of now, he should be a perfect sleeper candidate at the end of your draft. He can bury open threes and put the ball on the floor and drive, as well. He's never really lived up to the hype in his four-year career, but this could be the season he averages 16 points a game and feasts behind the arc.

Rajon Rondo - Boston Celtics

Rondo had several flashes of brilliance last season and now that Delonte West is out of town and Sebastian Telfair is doing everything he can just to stay in the league, the reins should be fully handed to Rondo this year. He led the team in steals and assists as a rookie, and he shouldn't have much problem improving on his 3.8 dimes per game.

He really came on over the team's final 10 games, scoring 11 or more points in eight of them and averaging 13 points, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals. Of course, that's when the team was supposedly tanking and heading for the Oden-Durant sweepstakes, but those numbers are hard to argue with. He recorded four or more steals eight times last year and flirted with several triple-doubles. Expect him to get into the trip-dub category at least three times in the upcoming season, averaging around 10 points, six dimes and two steals per game. The downside of Rondo is the fact he hit just six 3-pointers last season and shot 41.8% from the floor. While he's never likely to become a 3-point specialist, the rest of his numbers, especially the steals, should give him solid fantasy value. Just don't over pay for him.

Randy Foye - Minnesota Timberwolves

With Mike James back home again in Houston, it appears that Kevin McHale and company are ready to hand the point guard reins to Foye in Minnesota. He showed some promise last year, but it's debatable whether or not he's really an NBA point guard. Foye averaged about 10 points and fewer than three assists and three rebounds last year as a rookie, but should make big strides this season. He also turned it on after the All-Star Break and finished on a high note, scoring a career-high 26 points in the Wolves' final game of the season. He averaged 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 0.9 steals over the season's final 10 games and should be an excellent value pick once the top-tier point guards are gone.

Steve Blake - Free Agent

Blake is being pursued by every team in the league needing a point guard, but it sounds like the Lakers and Blazers don't want to give him the full midlevel exception. Blake has proven he can start at point guard in the NBA and be effective, and there's a decent chance he'll end up right back in Denver. Until we know where he's going, there's no way to effectively target his value. But wherever he lands, he'll see plenty of minutes at the one and should make a nice third or fourth fantasy point guard. And he could be a great value pick if he lands a starting job at some point next year.

Tyronn Lue and Speedy Claxton - Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks took point guard Acie Law with the 11th pick in the draft, but I doubt he's ready to run an NBA team at this point – Even one as bad as the Hawks. Speedy Claxton was brought in a year ago to run the offense, but chronic knee problems resulted in a disastrous season for Chris Paul's former backup. I am hearing that Speedy's knee problem has finally been properly diagnosed, and if he's healthy in November, you have to think he's the starter.

However, the most exciting guard possibility as far as a fantasy sleeper in Atlanta is Tyronn Lue. Lue was playing very well last season before suffering injury problems of his own. In 22 regular-season games in November (to start the year) and April (to end it), Lue hit double figures in scoring in all but two of them. His production over the rest of the season was average, at best, as he struggled with hamstring, knee and groin injuries throughout the year. But his stellar play early and late gives him some promise coming into the season if he can stay healthy. That's a big 'if' since he's averaged just 53 games played over the past two seasons. But he is a veteran leader on this Hawks team and Mike Woodson won't hesitate using Lue as his point guard if Speedy isn't up to, um, speed at the start of the season. Lue is the team's best free throw shooter, and while his field goal percentage is a little shaky, he shouldn't hurt your fantasy team anywhere, either.

While neither Hawks guard should be taken until the end of you draft, both players could end up being nice value picks late. Just don't expect any miracles.

Daniel Gibson - Cleveland Cavaliers

Gibson, affectionately known as "Boobie," broke out for the Cavaliers in the playoffs when he scored 31 points and hit 5-of-5 3-pointers to close out the Pistons and advance to the Finals. The bad news is that he only averaged four points per game against the Wizards and Nets in Rounds 1 and 2, but did bounce back to hit double figures in three of the four games the Cavs lost to the Spurs in the Finals.

Gibson showed flashes of his potential throughout the regular season, but never seemed to get comfortable or into a groove as a rookie. There's little doubt his playoff performance against the Pistons did wonders for his confidence, and it's no secret that the Cavs need help at both guard spots. Larry Hughes, Damon Jones and Eric Snow were simply ineffective last year, and Gibson looks like a decent bet to be a starter for this team. If he somehow comes off the bench, he should get at least 30 minutes per game, as he is clearly the team's best outside threat. Like the aforementioned players, don't over pay for Gibson. But give him a look after the middle rounds of your draft if you need a 3-point shooter.

Clippers point guard - Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have a big need for a point guard after Shaun Livingston's injury last season. Sam Cassell is still a valuable veteran for the team, but they need some youth to run the point. There's still a chance they'll bring back Jason Hart, who filled in admirably last season when Cassell and Livingston were both down, or they could bring in another free agent. Until we know who the Clippers' point guard is going to be, it's tough to say much else here. However, whoever lands the job will likely qualify as a sleeper.

Jordan Farmar - Los Angeles Lakers

Farmar should be locked into the starting role for the Lakers after Smush Parker was unceremoniously dumped at the end of last year. Parker's still technically with the team as of now, but not for much longer. The Lakers are still going to try to find a more seasoned point guard with some triangle experience, but there's a good chance the job will land squarely on Farmar's shoulders, simply because they don't have other options. Javaris Crittenton is now with the Lakers as well, and has been playing better than Farmar in the summer league. But a rookie point guard is the last thing Mitch Kupchak, Phil Jackson or Kobe Bryant wants to see in November. Farmar's summer league experience has not been good and he's really turning the ball over. Add to that his season averages of 4.4 points and 1.9 assists last year, and there's not much to get excited about. But he will probably have some fantasy value as long as he is the starting point guard for the Lakers.

[Hache Man]

Dwyane Wade - G - Heat

Dwyane Wade says he's on schedule from recovering from his shoulder and knee surgery, but may not be ready for training camp.
"I'm a fast healer, but my doctor really wants to make sure I'm well and I'm healthy and we don't have to go through this process again," Wade said. "He'd rather for me not to rush back to get in training camp and maybe aggravate something early in the season." We still don't think there's any guarantee that he'll be ready for opening night, but we'll have to see how things go in October. Jul. 16 - 4:00 p.m. ET

[Hache Man]

Team-by-Team Notes
My summer in Indy is going well, although it's not easy to get work done with six people staying in a small, one-bathroom house. But we're getting by, although I can't say the same about the Pacers. After watching the team go down the tubes over the last several years from afar, it's interesting to be back in Indianapolis and hear how angry, or disinterested, the average fan really is. The general consensus is that no reasonable person would spend a single dollar to go to a game right now. As my cousin Gary told me on Sunday, "I was the guest of a large corporation in a suite, free of charge, several times last year, and I still felt like it cost too much." That's quite a statement.

Basically, everything the Colts did right over the past year or so, the Pacers have gotten wrong. While Larry Bird is catching some flack in the national media about the horrible draft picks, trades and personnel decisions over the last three years, the heat from the spot light is much more intense in Indy. Everyone I've talked to has asked me why Larry hasn't been fired yet, which is pretty amazing to me. The guy is obviously a legend in this state, was highly popular as a coach when he took the Pacers on their only trip to the Finals and is one of the most loved Hoosiers of all time. And everyone thinks he is at the top of the list for screwing up the Pacers, and they're probably right.

Another interesting aspect of being back here (as opposed to Atlanta) is that people in Indiana actually care about the NBA. The Pacers have been a well respected and important staple of the community for years and for fans to see the team become a laughing stock (with a very bleak near future, I might add) has rocked them. Meanwhile, Atlanta's ownership group (more on them later) makes Bird, Donnie Walsh and the Pacer organization look like Mensa International. In North Georgia, I'm not even sure that people are aware that Atlanta has an NBA franchise. They all knew it at one time, but once Dominique left, it's like someone used that memory eraser from Men in Black to wipe the slates clean. And with Michael Vick's apparent love of watching dogs eat each other, the Falcons fan based isn't exactly feeling all that great right now either, especially after they traded away backup QB Matt Schaub. In short, there is one professional sports team left in Georgia, and they play football between the hedges in Athens. And as long as Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy are the good guys in Indy, basketball fans will turn their allegiance to the Colts and wait until Bird gets fired, Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley are sent packing, and Kevin Pritchard comes back home to run the organization. But unfortunately, it's hard to say if or when any of those things are going to happen.

As you may have figured out by now, this column is going to be random NBA notes, so let's get to it.

Atlanta Hawks

The ownership cluster continues to approach new heights of embarrassment. Now the agent for Josh Smith is upset because the team is making no effort to extend Smoov or Josh Childress as of yet, and it's probably because the group can't collectively come to a decision. And in case you missed it, even if the core group of owners agrees to do something (like trade for Amare Stoudemire or Monta Ellis), Steve Belkin, the "ousted owner," still has the power of veto in some cases. Add to it that the entire coaching staff is entering the final year of its contract and Billy Knight is not allowing anyone to leave (including assistant coaches), and you have to think the worst is yet to come in Atlanta. While I am all for less government, it is time for David Stern to step in and start using an iron fist in Atlanta. We all know that Atlanta has the hip-hop superstar crowd ready to fill the arena if the Hawks put the product on the floor. Not to mention Jeff Foxworthy and a slew of other "country stars" who would also join the fray. But until the ownership group gets it together, or is forced to sell the team to someone capable of running the show, Atlanta is going to continue to be a bottom feeder. You can probably expect to see an entirely new group of coaches after this season, at least.

It's a miracle that they were able to sign Joe Johnson a couple years ago, but until this ownership situation is worked out, I don't think they can sign another free agent, regardless of how big or small his name is. And while it's possible to build through the draft, it's not easy when you pass on guys like Chris Paul and Deron Williams, while stockpiling young wing players for five years. While guys like Mike Woodson and Knight take all the heat for the state of the Hawks, the finger should really be pointed directly at the entire ownership group. Mark Cuban runs a fantasy team in Dallas, which works because he has sole control and even has some basketball people on hand to help him. The Hawks ownership group also runs a fantasy team in the ATL, but there are too many cooks in the kitchen and too much dissension to get anything accomplished, other than continuing to put a product on the floor that very few people care about.

Boston Celtics

Gerald Green's name is being kicked around in trade rumors because no one can figure out how to get him minutes with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen around. Green had a horrible summer-league performance and is shaping up to be a fantasy bust if he doesn't make his way out of Boston. I love his game and would love to see him get moved.

Rajon Rondo should be ready to provide owners with great fantasy value, but it all depends on the Celtics' commitment to the run. If they find themselves in a half-court offense, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Rondo is probably the last person you want running your team. Look for the Celtics to run, or it's going to be another long year in Boston.

Many people are wondering if Al Jefferson will get enough touches with Allen's arrival in Boston. I say Jefferson will be just fine, but Ryan Gomes should probably get used to being nothing more than a role player for the next two years.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Cats were able to pull off a minor miracle by re-signing Gerald Wallace, giving them a tangible force of Wallace, Jason Richardson, Emeka Okafor and Raymond Felton. Add in Matt Carroll, Walter Herrmann and Adam Morrison, and that looks like a playoff team, especially in the East. There's also a chance they could bring Brevin Knight back to help backup Felton, but there's talk that the Cats have had him and his less than positive locker room presence around for long enough. Don't draft Sean May for your fantasy team this year. His knees are still not right and may never be. And there are questions about his work habits, which makes me think his NBA career will be a short one. And for all we know, we may have already seen the best he has to offer.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls got Andres Nocioni back and now just have to hope his foot problems are behind him. Tyrus Thomas is sitting out summer games with knee tendonitis, which has to also be a concern for the team going forward. They didn't do much in the offseason (at least thus far), but clearly have one of the best and deepest teams in the East. Ben Gordon should be an All-Star this year and if Nocioni's foot is healthy, they're going to be tough to beat. Joakim Noah was a nice pickup, but I don't see him having much of an impact this year.

Cleveland Cavaliers

It's looking likely that the Cavs are going to probably get Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic back, but they still have a huge question mark at point guard. I still get the sense that their trip to the Finals was a bit of a fluke last season and I don't see them getting there again with Larry Hughes or Eric Snow running the offense. And LeBron's good, but he's not an NBA point guard. Then again, the rumors of Mike Bibby heading to Cleveland are still highly popular on the internet, and I would not be surprised to see a deal worked out. If Drew Gooden goes to Sacramento, it clears the way for Varejao to start, and obviously Bibby would be a perfect point guard for the Cavs. But the last thing the Kings need is another power forward who doesn't block shots.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs re-signed Devean George and Jerry Stackhouse, but haven't done much else this summer. You have to wonder if Dirk Nowitzki is going to come back with a vengeance this season, or if his confidence was permanently damaged after last year's playoff flop. I'm going to put my vote on "vengeance."

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are going to hand the reins to Chucky Atkins to run the point in Denver. He's a big-time long-range threat, and could be a nice piece to the Nuggets' puzzle, although I'm not sure he'll be more effective than Steve Blake was. The hiring of Atkins should slide Allen Iverson to shooting guard for much of the season, and we'll have to wait and see how J.R. Smith bounces back after the accident that killed his best friend.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons re-signed Chauncey Billups and Amir Johnson and are still waiting to see what Chris Webber will do. Either way, the Pistons will once again be one of the better teams in the East. And for the record, Rasheed Wallace says that he and Flip Saunders have no problem with one another.

Golden St. Warriors

The talk in Warrior-land right now is the stellar summer-league play of rookie Marco Belinelli. There are rumors of him actually starting in front of Monta Ellis, but I'm not buying it. There are also a lot of questions about whether Don Nelson is going to return this season. All indications are that he will, but he's asking for his salary to be nearly doubled. If negotiations turn south, Nellie's going to get a reputation of not being loyal after his falling out with Mark Cuban, but the Warriors' job is likely the last of his career anyway. Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes are still unsigned, while the Warriors are bringing back Kelenna Azubuike, and Stephen Jackson will be sitting out the first seven games of the season after getting a suspension for his off-court activities of the past year. Center Patrick O'Bryant isn't developing quickly enough for the Warriors, but all signs are still pointing to him backing up Andris Biedrins this year.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have a glut at point guard and really have too many guards in general. They also only have one true power forward in Chuck Hayes, meaning Shane Battier could play out of position a lot this year. Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are going to be fantasy stars, as usual, but I think you're rolling the dice on the rest of the Rockets. Bonzi Wells qualifies as a sleeper under Rick Adelman, although I still don't know how Mike James and Rafer Alston are going to co-exist.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have done almost nothing this offseason. They drafted a guy in the second round (whose name, ironically enough, is Stanko) who will likely never play in the U.S. and signed Kareem Rush. I think Rush could be a big player for the Pacers, but if he doesn't have enough talent surrounding him, he's going to have trouble finding open shots. Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley still need to go, and may not be Pacers once 2008 rolls around.

L.A. Clippers

Steve Francis could be the starting point guard for the Clippers this season and coach Mike Dunleavy says that Corey Maggette will start this year, giving him a big boost in fantasy value. Elton Brand's status for the FIBA tournament in Vegas is in doubt, but he's expected to be healthy in time for NBA training camp. And Brand should be treated as a bit of a sleeper this season. Despite still having a big season and posting nice numbers, he was not as dominant last season as he has been in the past. Taking him any time in the second round makes sense. And Francis could have some nice value if he signs with the Clips and is handed the starting point guard job.

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers signed Luke Walton to a six-year, $30 million deal this summer, and it should be interesting to see if he can play as well this year as he did last. Kobe Bryant apologized for his actions earlier in the summer, but the fact that the Walton signing is the big news coming out of L.A. is probably not making Bryant any happier. Then again, Derek Fisher is coming on board and should easily win the starting point guard job. He's going to have some fantasy value this season.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies pulled of a big coup when they landed Darko Milicic after talks broke down with the Magic. Darko and Pau Gasol should be a force together down low, and the Grizz have one of the best young cores out there with Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Tarence Kinsey. They surprisingly waived forward Alexander Johnson, but he should land with another NBA team this fall.

Miami Heat

Alonzo Mourning will return to the Heat, and while Pat Riley hasn't officially said he's back, all indications are that he will return. Gary Payton is going to retire and the team may lose James Posey to free agency. Dwyane Wade's return from knee and shoulder surgery is the biggest question mark surrounding the team, but all indications are that he's clearly on his way back to form. However, it could take him until after Christmas to get there. I raised some eyebrows when I didn't put Wade in the Top 24 in a recent column, but until I get assurances from him that he's not going to miss much time, he's still on the bubble.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are close to signing Desmond Mason and have already locked in with Mo Williams. Bobby Simmons should be close to a return to form this year if he is finally over his foot injury, while we are all still waiting to see if Yi Jianlian will ever play in a Bucks uniform. I'm guessing he fires his agent, gets a new one and is traded to the West. We'll see. Oh, and Ersan Ilyasova is going to play in Europe this season. Better find a new guy to target in the 17th round of your draft.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Randy Foye will be the starting point guard for the Wolves, giving him a huge bump in fantasy value, while Juwan Howard will help Kevin Garnett in the paint. I think the chances of the Wolves getting into the playoffs with a lackluster roster and a second-year point guard are not great, as the team continues to try to find a new home for Kevin Garnett.

New Orleans Hornets

The big news out of New Orleans is the signing of Morris Peterson. Now if they can just get Peja Stojakovic back on the floor, they should have a pretty good team this season. Tyson Chandler should have another good year, but don't expect him to play better than he did last year. That could end up being the greatest season of his life.

New Jersey Nets

The Nets waived Cliff Robinson and signed Jamaal Magloire after Mikki Moore bolted for Sacramento, which is apparently the NBA's most popular destination for overvalued power forwards. Nenad Krstic will recover slowly but surely from last year's knee surgery, but it appears the Nets are set to take their chances going to battle with Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter. There are still rumblings of a deal involving Jermaine O'Neal, but as of now, the Nets are sticking with what they've got.

New York Knicks

Nate Robinson won the summer league's MVP Award after putting up solid numbers and leading the Knicks to a 5-0 record. He is still considered iffy to make the team's final roster, but it will be hard for Isiah to justify waving the Vegas MVP. Quentin Richardson says his back is as healthy as it's been in years and he's ready to return to form for the Knicks. Of course, how he's going to get many shots with Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph and David Lee on board is anyone's guess. But it sounds like he should at least be one of the better 3-point specialists in the league this season.

Orlando Magic

The Magic lost Billy Donovan to kick things off this summer, then lost Darko Milicic when Otis Smith ignored him while trying to land Rashard Lewis. Smith did get Lewis, but the price tag was out of this world and the Magic just have to hope that it doesn't end up being one of those max contracts no one is happy about years later. J.J. Redick has been making summer-league noise and could actually have a little value this year. But I think that Jameer Nelson is likely to be the biggest sleeper in Orlando, now that Grant Hill and Darko are gone. And don't forget about Trevor Ariza, either.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been quiet this offseason, but have four rookies coming in, all with some promise. Jason Smith, Thaddeus Young, Derrick Byars and Herbert Hill are all intriguing prospects, as the Sixers are now looking to lock Andre Iguodala in for the long haul.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns signed Grant Hill away from the Magic, hoping that he's the piece to the puzzle that's been missing for the Suns. He could be, and it's hard to argue that the Suns are not the perfect fit for Hill. Shawn Marion has some plantar fasciitis issues with his foot that will likely keep him from playing for Team USA this summer. Fantasy owners just have to hope the problem doesn't raise its head this year, as he will be a Top 5 pick in all formats. He generally plays through injuries, so I'm not too concerned about him just yet. Amare Stoudemire is another interesting fantasy prospect for this fall. He didn't miss a game last year, but that doesn't guarantee anything for this season. His knees could fall apart at any time and I still think fantasy teams and the Suns have to handle him with kid gloves. But he's worth a late first-round pick if you can handle the risk.

Portland Trailblazers

Things are going so well in Portland right now they can buy out Steve Francis for $30 million and send him packing without even thinking twice about it. Greg Oden's nagging injury list scares me, and I really hope he doesn't turn out to be one of those guys who misses two out of every 10 games, but he's off to a shaky start. Let's hope that getting the tonsils out will be the last procedure he needs for awhile. Stay away from the Blazers' point guard, whoever it turns out to be. With Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez and Jarrett Jack all around, not to mention Brandon Roy, there could be a brutal log jam at the position this season. LaMarcus Aldridge should be the big sleeper in Portland this year and I think he's going to have a huge year.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings continue to talk about dealing Ron Artest and Mike Bibby and now have enough power forwards to start five of them. You can add Mikki Moore to the list already including Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Spencer Hawes, while Brad Miller also should qualify at the position. Stay away from all of them.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have done what they can to keep last season's championship team intact and added Tiago Splitter and Marcus Williams in the draft. They also parted ways with big man Jackie Butler to bring in disgruntled guard Vassilis Spanoulis, who plans on playing in Greece this year.

Seattle Sonics

The Sonics are tough to recognize these days. No Ray Allen. No Rashard Lewis. Add in the fact that they now have Delonte West and their point guard position is as log jammed as ever with Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour still there. Kevin Durant and Jeff Green will obviously be thrown into the mix, and you have to think new coach P.J. Carlesimo will find minutes for Damien Wilkins, but it's hard to figure out who will emerge as Seattle's go-to guy at this point. Many people think it will be Durant, but veterans like Wilkins, Watson, West, Ridnour and Nick Collison are probably better bets.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors will say goodbye to Morris Peterson this season, but they probably won't miss him now that they've wrestled Jason Kapono away from the Bobcats. Toronto is going to build on last year's success and should be one of the better teams in the East.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz lost out on Peterson, so maybe another Morris, as in Morris Almond, will emerge at shooting guard in Utah this season. Not much has changed in Utah this summer, except that Derek Fisher is headed back to the Lakers and the Jazz signed back up point guard Jason Hart, who will play behind Deron Williams. They may not be done yet, but it looks like they'll go to war with Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams and either Gordan Giricek, Matt Harpring or Almond this season.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards agreed to terms with DeShawn Stevenson and Juan Carlos Navarro is a hot topic, although it doesn't sound like he'll play in the NBA this year, or for the Wizards. Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are still on the block, but the Wizards haven't been able to figure out what they're going to do at center. They're likely to lose Andray Blatche to free agency (Mavs?) and I can't wait to see how they work rookie Nick Young into the mix this year. Consider him a sleeper for ROY. But until they solve their problems at center, it's unlikely that Gilbert Arenas and company can win the East.

[Hache Man]

More Fantasy Sleepers
By now everyone knows the name Tim Donaghy. Even non-fans, like my dad, know who Donaghy is. In case you've been living in a cave, he's the NBA referee accused of gambling on games he officiated and providing inside game information to mobsters. While I doubt he was betting on a specific team to win or lose, it's possible. What's more likely is that he was controlling whether or not a team would hit the "over/under." Referees can easily control how many total points teams combine to score in an NBA game by simply calling more fouls early and putting teams in the penalty, creating a free throw fest and lowering scoring. On the flip side, refs can call fewer fouls and let teams play, resulting in a high-scoring affair.

In any case, I would not be shocked if other refs were involved in the scandal. Looking at the now famous Game 3 in last year's playoffs when the Spurs beat the Suns, it's clear that Donaghy wasn't the only guy making questionable calls. You can make your own decision here.

I don't have the answers as to what will happen as a result of the allegations against Donaghy, but I find myself siding with Mavs' owner Mark Cuban, who said: "The NBA took a hit today. Behind that hit is a catalyst and opportunity for significant change that could make the NBA stronger than it ever has been. It's a chance to proactively put in place people, processes and transparency that will forever silence those who will question the NBA's integrity." While it's clear that changes are coming to the NBA, hopefully the league will be made better after learning from its mistakes. Some are predicting the league won't survive the scandal, but I'm guessing it will take more than a dirty ref or two to bring it down.

Last week's column was hard core, covering everything you need to know from every team in the league. This week I'm going to take a shorter approach and hit on some more sleepers you should be thinking about prior to your fantasy draft this fall. And it won't take your entire lunch hour to read.

But first, I have to comment on Andrew Bogut's new haircut. Check this out – Bogut's hair. If you can't link to the picture, he's shaven his head and left only a small, braided pony tail on the back. It not only makes you forget about the patch on the back of Drew Gooden's head, but sent me straight back into 1980 for the movie Airplane, when that Joe Izuzu guy was a Hare Krishna with a similar do. Even though Bogut and Gooden get credit for the league's worst hair, my vote would still probably go to the Cats' Walter Herrmann, who is a dead ringer for Fabio.

More Fantasy Sleepers

Chucky Atkins - Point Guard – Denver Nuggets

Atkins appeared to be on the downside of his career in Memphis last year despite averaging 13.2 points and 4.6 assists, but will now handle the starting point guard duties for the high-powered Nuggets. Anthony Carter is promising to give him a run for his money for the starting gig, but I think the job is Atkins' to lose. A probable starting lineup of Atkins and Allen Iverson in the backcourt, along with a front line of Carmelo Anthony, Nene and Marcus Camby (if he's not traded) should give Atkins plenty of chances to hand out assists and bury open threes. Add in the fact that J.R. Smith may not be mentally ready for the season after this summer's car accident that resulted in the death of his best friend, and Atkins should be in store for at least 35 minutes per game. But the important thing to remember here is that he's still Chucky Atkins and hasn't averaged more than 13.6 points and 5.3 assists in any season. However, he's a strong 3-point shooter and the potential of him being a fantasy steal in Denver is great. I am targeting him as a Top 10 point guard this season after he finished last year with ninth-round value in standard eight-cat leagues. We'll see.

Danny Granger - Guard/Forward – Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are struggling, to put it mildly, but the one ray of hope they do have is Granger. He improved dramatically in year two last season, averaging nearly 14 points per game and hitting a surprising 1.3 threes per night. He's missed just four games in two years and all signs are pointing to new Pacers' coach Jim O'Brien running the offense through Granger and Jermaine O'Neal. Given his solid shooting percentage and ability to hit threes, Granger could average 17 or more points this season. He should also grab more than five boards a night and can hit free throws, making him a guy who won't hurt you anywhere. I really think he's going to breakout in year three and he was worth the first pick of the sixth round in 12-team, eight-category leagues last year. Target him in Round 4 this year, which should be about right for the promising young star.

Corey Maggette - Guard/Forward – Los Angeles Clippers

News flash! Mike Dunleavy says he's going to start Corey Maggette this season. After battling with Dunleavy regarding his role with the team over the past two seasons, this is huge news for Maggette's fantasy prospects. "He will be a starter, for sure," Dunleavy said. "We're fine. Things ended up well for us." I don't wan to get carried away here, but Maggette should return to being a fantasy stud again this year. Maggette showed great improvement in his stats in each of his first six years in the league, peaking in the 2004-05 season when he averaged 22. 2 points, 6.0 boards, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals and nearly a three per game. He also committed 3.0 turnovers that year, and they'll continue to be high again this season. He's always an injury risk, as he's managed to play more than 70 games in just three of his eight seasons, but he made it through 75 contests last year. While it may be tough for him to get his numbers to where they were in the 04-05 season, he should flirt with them, making him worth a fourth- or fifth-round pick. And that's quite a step up from the seventh-round value he offered last year. I think he's a solid pick in the fourth round and becomes a serious potential steal any time in the fifth round or later. He should qualify at both guard and forward, but we're guessing he starts at small forward, with Cuttino Mobley starting at shooting guard.

Derek Fisher - Point Guard – Los Angeles Lakers

Derek Fisher was released by the Jazz so he could move to an area offering sufficient health care for his daughter, who has a rare form of eye cancer. He immediately made the Lakers his first choice and is hoping his return to La La Land will help persuade Kobe Bryant to put his differences with the organization behind him and get ready for the season. With Smush Parker unceremoniously dumped by the Lakers this summer and Jordan Farmar's poor summer league play, the Lakers are excited to have Fisher under wraps. He'll start at point guard and will be backed up by Farmar and rookie Javaris Crittenton. We expected better things from Fisher last season, but he struggled to find his role in Utah. His role is pretty clear in L.A., as he is easily locked in as the starting point guard for Phil Jackson. Fisher had just 12th-round value last season, and while I'm not expecting any miracles this year, he should make for an excellent value pick in the middle rounds of your draft.

Mike Miller - Guard/Forward – Memphis Grizzlies

Mike Miller put up some outrageous numbers from downtown last year and finished with the best statistical season of his career. He missed the final 12 games of the season with patella tendonitis in both knees but appears to be back on track after he scored 22 points and hit four threes in the second quarter of a Team USA scrimmage over the weekend. He hit 202 3-pointers last season, finishing just three behind Gilbert Arenas and Raja Bell, who both played several more games than Miller. Once he went down last season, Tarence Kinsey stepped up and played admirably in his absence, but Miller should be ready to start hoisting and hitting threes again on opening night. If everything falls into place for Miller, it's possible he could average 20 points, five boards, five assists, one steal and three threes per game, which would put his value near the second round. He was worth an early fourth-round fantasy selection last year and the fourth round is exactly where he should be targeted again this season. I'm a little leery of his knee problems, but he should lead the league in 3-pointers made this year and put up solid all-around numbers. That is if new coach Marc Iavaroni gives him the green light like Tony Barone did last season. Either way, don't overpay for him by taking him higher than the fourth round. Let's just hope he loses the girls' head band.

Devin Harris - Point Guard - Dallas Mavericks

Avery Johnson has said that Harris will see a bigger role this season, meaning he could finally be on the verge of the breakout season we've all been waiting for over the last three years. Then again, looking at the numbers, he'd have to improve significantly to take a big leap in value. He had his best season last year, but that still resulted in only 10 points and less than four assists per game. But he shot 49% from the floor and 82% from the line despite hitting just 28% of his 3-point attempts. Chances are he's going to be given the reins to the offense and it's likely his assist average could top five per game this season, with his points going up slightly as well. He doesn't commit many turnovers and should easily swipe more than one steal per game again. He's not worth targeting as a No. 1 point guard just yet, but could prove to be quite a value pick in the middle rounds of your draft. He had eighth-round value last year despite the low numbers, and could easily jump up to being worth a fifth-rounder without too much effort.

Louis Williams - Combo Guard – Philadelphia 76ers

Williams is not a true point guard but there's no doubt he can score. He had a huge summer-league performance, averaging 25.2 points, and produced several high-scoring games because of his quickness. He has a knack for getting into the lane and shot a whopping 13.6 free throw attempts a game in the summer league to go along with five dimes a night. Because he's not a true point guard there are concerns about him being able to find open teammates. Andre Miller wills start at point guard, but Williams could start at shooting guard with Andre Iguodala playing small forward, or be Miller's backup. Either way, it looks like a near guarantee that he'll be a big part of the Sixers' rotation this season. Williams will compete with Kyle Korver and Rodney Carney at the 2, but should be an excellent late-round value pick that could end up being one of the steals of your draft. "His maturity out here was one of the biggest things I was impressed with," Sixers coach Maurice Cheeks said. "Running a basketball team, and when he had to look to score, he scored, and when he had to look to pass, he passed." I'm always cautious about pimping someone just because they had a nice summer league run, but Williams did score in double figures in five of the Sixers' last six games last season and he looks like the real deal to me.

Rafer Alston - Combo Guard – Houston Rockets

I have Skip listed as playing for the Rockets and that's where he is – For now. But with Mike James and Steve Francis on board, the Rockets appear to be openly shopping Alston. Miami came out of the summer without a new point guard and the last one left on the board, Brevin Knight, appears to be headed to the Clippers. Don't be surprised to see Alston back in Miami, where he came into his own in the 2003-04 season. He's always a 3-point threat and has averaged double-figure scoring in four straight seasons, hitting nearly two threes per night over that stretch. He also averaged 1.5 steals per game over the past four seasons, but shot under 39% from the floor in three of them. His field goal percentage is always a fantasy buzzkill, but the threes, steals, assists and points will always give him positive fantasy value. He's played in 80-plus games in three of his last four seasons and had fourth-round value last year with the Rockets. If he stays in Houston, he'll really struggle to have even fifth-round value this year, but a trade to the Heat could make him a Round 4 steal.

[Hache Man]

Fantasy Rookie Outlook
Today I'll take a look at 10 rookies likely to make an impact for fantasy owners this season. I've listed them in the order I see them being drafted this fall, and my apologies in advance if you are a big Brandan Wright fan, as he didn't crack the list.

Rookie Rundown

Kevin Durant No. 2 overall – Seattle Small Forward

It sounds like Durant has a great chance of playing for Team USA in the FIBA Americas Tournament next month in Las Vegas and I also think he's the early favorite for rookie of the year. With both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis gone, there's a very good chance Durant could be the man in Seattle this season. He signed a monster shoe deal with Nike and all signs are pointing to major minutes and production for the Texas product right out of the gates. He averaged 26 points and 11 boards at Texas last year, and while those numbers should take a major hit in his rookie year, there's no reason to think he can't average 17 points and eight rebounds a night. He should also flirt with averaging a block, steal and three per game and I'm thinking he should be targeted in the fifth round of fantasy drafts.

Greg Oden No. 1 overall – Portland Center

Some industry insiders believe Oden will have a monster rookie season, averaging as many as 17 points, 13 boards and three blocks. I think he'll get to that point one day, but I am already quite nervous about his health. He had his tonsils taken out over the summer, causing him to miss most of summer league and a tryout for Team USA. He was bothered by a serious wrist injury for much of his year at Ohio St. and rumors of back problems are out there as well. Oden averaged less than 16 points and 10 boards at OSU, although he was slowed by the wrist injury much of the time. Dwight Howard averaged 18 points, 15 boards and seven blocks in high school and averaged 12 points, 10 boards and 1.7 blocks per game his rookie year. As far as I'm concerned, that's about what we should expect out of Oden this season, if he can stay healthy. Like Durant, I think taking him in Round 5 makes sense, although because of his name, he's likely to be overvalued in your league.

Al Horford No. 3 overall – Atlanta Power Forward

Horford looked good in summer league action and appears to come as advertised for the Hawks. He can play forward or center (although he's quite undersized there) and while a starting job isn't guaranteed, major minutes are. Shelden Williams is set for a career as a reserve power forward, while Marvin Williams and Josh Smith don't really have power forward bodies. I expect Mike Woodson to make Horford earn a starting job, but it may not take him that long to get it. Horford won't be worth more than a middle-round pick even if he meets expectations and averages close to a double-double for the Hawks. I'm guessing we get 82 games out of Horford with averages of 10 points and eight rebounds, along with a high shooting percentage from the floor. He's not a good free throw shooter, so beware of that going into your draft.

Yi Jianlian No. 6 overall – Milwaukee Power Forward

As you know, Yi has still not reached an agreement with the Bucks and his future is a complete unknown. I do think he'll eventually sign and play in the NBA this season, but he may get traded as well. If he stays in Milwaukee, he'll have to battle Charlie Villanueva for a starting job and there's no telling how he'll adapt to the NBA game. But he can shoot it and should manage a rookie year similar to Andrea Bargnani's rookie campaign. Yi can be chosen in the later rounds of fantasy drafts and averages of 12 points, five boards and 1.5 threes per game are not out of the question.

Morris Almond No. 25 overall – Utah Shooting Guard

The Jazz lost Derek Fisher to the Lakers and are in need of a long-range bomber. The Rice product is just that and could play a big role in Utah this season. Gordan Giricek may have fallen out of favor with Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams, but is still slated to start at shooting guard this season. Almond could be the first guy off the bench for the Jazz and should be an excellent source of threes this season. However, he's not likely to contribute in enough categories to have a huge fantasy impact, so only target him late in your draft if you're desperate for threes.

Marco Belinelli No. 18 overall – Golden St. Shooting Guard

If you followed summer league news at all you know Belinelli tore it up, averaging 23 points and draining 12 threes in four games. That included an 0-of-9 outing from beyond the arc in his final summer game, and a 37-point explosion in his first one. He has a lot of professional experience in Europe and has proven he can shoot the lights out. However, outside of threes and points, we doubt he's going to excel in other areas. There's already talk of him starting at shooting guard over Monta Ellis, but I'll believe that one when I see it happen. If you find yourself needing threes late in your draft, Belinelli may be your guy. Let's just hope he doesn't turn out to be another version of teammate Sarunas Jasikevicius.

Corey Brewer No. 7 overall – Minnesota Small Forward

With news today that Kevin Garnett may be headed out of town with the Wolves acquiring a variety of players, including Al Jefferson, Gerald Green and Sebastian Telfair, it's impossible to predict what Brewer will do this season. That said, I like him and think he has a chance to eventually emerge as a multi-cat stud, but it won't happen this year. With Ricky Davis and possibly Green or Garnett in Minnesota, not to mention Trenton Hassell and Rashad McCants, Brewer will be hard pressed to land a starting job this year. However, he should have a solid season as a backup. I'm not fully convinced Brewer will be worth a fantasy spot this year, but taking him with a late-round flier could pay off. He averaged 11 points, 9.6 boards and 3.0 assists in summer league, and while he's not the favorite, he could compete for ROY this season if he gets the minutes.

Mike Conley No. 4 overall – Memphis Point Guard

With Kyle Lowry on the verge of coming back from wrist surgery and Damon Stoudamire still around, the Grizzlies' starting point guard is still a mystery. All three players will see time running the point, and as we've seen throughout the years, three-headed point guards are a fantasy disaster. Conley appears to have the most promise of the three players, but I doubt he does enough this season to make much of a fantasy impact. Target Conley late if you need another point guard, but don't plan on starting him too often.

Acie Law No. 11 overall – Atlanta Point Guard

Law was taken with the 11th pick by the Hawks and injuries will play a big role in his fantasy value. If Speedy Claxton is still dealing with knee problems and Tyronn Lue continues to be plagued by injuries, Law could end up starting quite a few games for Atlanta. But that's a big if and the Hawks' point guard situation remains a mystery. Like Conley, Law is probably worth a last-round pick as insurance for Claxton and Lue. If either of the veterans is healthy in the preseason it might be wise to avoid Law and then pick him up on waivers if he emerges as a solid contributor for the Hawks.

Jeff Green No. 5 overall – Seattle Forward

Green was taken at No. 5 by the Celtics and then traded to the Sonics in the Ray Allen deal. The Sonics are deep at both forward positions and Green will likely be stuck on the depth chart behind Kevin Durant and Damien Wilkins, giving him limited value. I'm not sure he can play power forward, but even if he can, the Sonics have Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison. Avoid Green on draft day, unless he shows you something in the preseason.

[Hache Man]

Ricky Davis takes a leap
Kevin Garnett is apparently heading to Boston, but who are the fantasy winners and losers in the deal? It's an important question as the Celtics will now have three all-stars in Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in their lineup and the Timberwolves will have budding star Al Jefferson in theirs.

To give you an idea of the players the Celtics are going to run out there on opening night, here's where they went in League Freak – NBA TV's Rick Kamla's league, which I happened to win last season.

Garnett – No. 3 overall
Pierce – No. 11 overall
Allen – No. 28 overall

Allen and Pierce spent much of last season in street clothes with injuries (which should not be overlooked, given their age), but if you look at where they finished on a per-game basis for fantasy value, it looks like this.

Garnett – No. 4 overall
Allen – No. 8 overall
Pierce – No. 28 over all

I've got plenty of thoughts on the non-fantasy angles of this trade, but will try to keep them brief. The Celtics are suddenly relevant again and Garnett will add some much needed fire power to the East. Just like in the fantasy world, you have to give up a lot to get a lot in the real world, unless you're trading with a fantasy rookie. Then you can usually do as you please. And while Kevin McHale is not a rookie by any means, many people will argue he got fleeced in this deal. Trading a superstar for a bunch of young pieces and a couple draft picks that may not yield much talent is always risky, but the Wolves made a decision to start over last year. They could have gotten less for Garnett, but on paper, I think this looks like a pretty good deal for both teams. And if the Celtics don't have a championship by 2009, the Wolves might even come out on top in this one.

It's not often that I write a column about a deal that's not even a deal yet, but all indications are that this trade is going to happen. In case you missed it, here's what we know. Kevin Garnett is going to the Celtics for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract. Here's what we don't know. Ryan Gomes could be included in the deal, along with a 2009 lottery-protected first-round pick and another first-round pick that was previously traded to the Celtics from the Wolves. While the details are still being worked out, I would not be surprised if Minnesota doesn't end up with all three additional pieces. We also don't know if Theo Ratliff will ever play for the Wolves (or Celtics) after missing last season with a back injury that required surgery, but Ratliff says he feels great and is ready to go. We'll see.

The Celtics immediately become a powerhouse in the East, although some are wondering how these three studs are going to share the ball. The interesting thing about this deal is that all three players are in their prime and desperate to win. Pierce has said repeatedly that he will do whatever it takes to get to the Finals, while KG and Allen have said the same thing. These are three guys with passion who want to win. They could defer to each other, hit the open man and this could actually work. As for the Wolves, they are going to be young for a long time, and will need guys like Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Randy Foye, Craig Smith, Jefferson, Telfair, Green and (if they get him) Gomes to exceed expectations.

As for the fantasy impacts, let's break it down, player by player.

Celtics

Projected starting lineup: PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, PF Kevin Garnett, C Kendrick Perkins

Kevin Garnett

I don't think Garnett loses any value, despite the presence of Pierce and Allen. Maybe I'm naïve or short sighted, but the guy has put up at least 20 and 10 for nine straight seasons. He will clearly be the best player on any team he goes to and will be a fixture down low, continuing to rack up points and boards. I guess his scoring could drop slightly, but I think Pierce will be the guy who does the most deferring, as he'll try to be a gracious host for the new arrivals. Given the fact that Garnett should dominate Eastern Conference power forwards, he is the guy with the smallest chance of losing value. He's still a Top 5 pick as far as I'm concerned.

Paul Pierce

As I stated earlier, Pierce will be playing the role of host, as he welcomes two all-stars to Boston. Pierce has already demonstrated a penchant for sharing the ball, even when he had nobody to throw it to. He averaged 4.5 assists per game over the last five years, which is equivalent to the number the 21st-ranked point guard put up last year (4.6). Add to it the facts that unproven Rajon Rondo is now the only option at point guard, and that Pierce should be able to hit KG and Allen all day long, and his assist numbers could be around seven or eight per game. If Rondo struggles, it's even possible that Pierce could emerge as a point forward for the Celtics. His scoring will take a hit – There's no way around it. But his turnovers could drop (which is good news, since he's usually among the league leaders), he could hit more threes and grab a few more boards. Pierce's value takes the biggest hit of the three Celtics, but I don't think it's going to be much of one. The increase in assists should help make up for the loss of scoring, while the rest of his numbers should remain about the same. Garnett's rebounding totals are sick, but don't forget that Jefferson averaged 11.0 per game last season. I think Pierce's value stays virtually the same and he's taken in the second or third round of your draft this fall, just like he always is. But I like him to have third- or fourth-round, due to the overall drop in scoring. He averaged more than 25 ppg last season, but he will be lucky to hit 20 this year. But 19 points and seven assists is still worth a ton in fantasyland.

Ray Allen

I think Allen will stay healthy and float on the perimeter even more than usual this season, with KG and Pierce controlling the paint for the C's. Allen has hit three or more 3-pointers per game for the last two seasons and has scored at least 23 ppg for five straight seasons. With KG and Pierce driving and kicking, Allen might see even more open looks than he did in the last two seasons, and could flirt with an NBA record for threes in one season. He was never much of an assist or rebound guy anyway and the added threes could keep his value right where it was in Seattle despite the fact he'll probably score fewer points.

But another key element of this thing is to look at last year's numbers. The Celtics averaged 95.8 points which was below average, but the Mavericks were the eighth highest scoring team in the league at 100.0. If you pencil KG, Pierce and Allen each at 20 points a night, that leaves 30-40 points per game for the rest of the team. Do you see Rajon Rondo or Kendrick Perkins suddenly becoming scoring machines, especially with these guys around? I don't. There's no reason that the trio can't average 60 points between them, Rondo and Perkins will be good for 15 and then the bench, which is arguably the thinnest in the league, could pick up the other 15 points. Of course, the big three have to stay healthy for this to happen, but it's certainly a possibility.

Rajon Rondo

I'm not sure what kind of numbers Rondo will put up, but I do know his value went up with the news of the trade. The Celtics have no one, and I mean no one else to play point guard. Yes, on paper they have Gabe Pruitt, but that's it - And he hasn't even been signed yet. Rondo should end up being a stud in steals and assists, and the fact that he is not a good shooter could work in his favor here. You know Danny Ainge is already writing the speech he's going to give Rondo when the deal goes down. "Look kid. I don't want to see you shoot the ball. I want you to find the open all-star, avoid turnovers and steal the ball – That's it," he'll say. Rondo has already proven he's a steal machine, and if he can find the open man, he could average nine assists per game. Maybe I'm looking at this through rose colored glasses (or beer goggles), but I know Rondo isn't going to be looking for his shot in this offense. But in the sixth round of your draft when you are lacking in assists and steals? Hello, Rondo. Of course, if the C's bring in Brevin Knight or someone, all bets are off on Rondo.

Kendrick Perkins

Perkins is the big loser here. The kid has trouble scoring anyway and specialized in shot blocking and rebounding. Yeah, he'll be on the floor with the big guns, but Ainge will just be finding a way to keep him out of the way. "Listen Perk – I want you to play defense, block a couple shots per night and then get your man out of the paint so KG and PP have room to work. Please don't shoot it, and don't steal any boards from KG," he'll say. I say avoid him on draft day.

Timberwolves

Projected starting lineup: PG Randy Foye, SG Ricky Davis, SF Ryan Gomes, PF Al Jefferson, C Mark Blount

As for the Wolves, things are looking very interesting from a fantasy point of view. The major questions out there are: Is Al Jefferson now a Top 5 power forward? Is Randy Foye still a huge sleeper candidate without KG to dish to? Is Ricky Davis going to take over the team and average 30 ppg? Is Mark Blount now one of the better centers in the West? Will Ryan Gomes start over Corey Brewer and Gerald Green?

Al Jefferson

I think Jefferson's value just took a huge jump, if he can stay healthy. I can't help but have visions of sprained ankles from him, but if he can stay on the court, he and Davis should dominate for this team. He should easily average 12 rebounds in Minny, along with 18 points, 1.75 blocks and never miss a shot from the floor. He should quickly emerge as the team's leader (much to the chagrin of Davis) and become one of the top power forwards for fantasy owners. Again, health is a major concern but the kid knows he's the new face of the franchise and will be on a mission. If he managed fifth-round value last season, go ahead and chalk him up for third- or fourth-round value this year. And if he gets the blocks up above two per game (and he might), he could be an absolute steal in the fourth round. Jefferson should be one of the premiere sleeper picks this season. The poor free throw percentage and lack of assists and steals don't help him, but he should improve in most other places.

Ricky Davis

Davis was already flirting with taking more shots than Garnett and will now have the green light for a team desperate for offense. Davis actually averaged more shots per game than Garnett during the 2005-06 season! He could shoot it at least 20 times per game and average career highs across the board. The guy played in 81 games last season and had third-round value, coming in at No. 29 overall. Without KG there he easily becomes the team's No. 1 scoring option and he could be among the league leaders in scoring this season. Add to that the fact he's already a well-rounded player, and I think you could make an easy argument for taking him late in the first round. The only problem is with all the kids running around in Minnesota, defenses will be able to load up on Davis - But I don't care. It's a proven fact he loves to shoot and his all-around game makes him a lock for excellent fantasy value this season. It's not out of the realm of possibility he could average 23 points, six boards and five assists this season, which would put him in the same neighborhood as a certain player in Cleveland. Add in at least a steal and two threes per game, without LeBron's turnovers, and Davis looks even more like a first-rounder. I'm not saying that you should take him there, and I'm also not sure I could pull the trigger on him at No. 11 or 12 on draft night. But any time after the big guns are gone, Davis should be a solid fantasy pick.

Ryan Gomes

Gomes will have to earn a starting job for the Wolves, but given his excellent knowledge of how to play the game and his solid fundamentals, he should win the starting small forward job. I'm not sure of what his ceiling is, but if he could average nearly 12 points and six boards last season, there's no reason to think those numbers won't increase in Minnesota. He'll have some competition from Brewer and Green, but Brewer's a rookie and Green is too inconsistent and plays no defense, meaning Gomes should get the job (if he's even included in the deal). Fourteen points and eight boards are not out of the question for Gomes, meaning he will likely end up having ninth or 10th-round value, a nice step up from last season's 12th-round run. The only problem for the Wolves is that he'll be a free agent after this season, meaning his stay in Minnesota may be a short one. But look for him to take advantage of his opportunity and put up nice numbers this year. I believe that Brewer and Green are also worth a look, but are a long shot at having solid fantasy value.

Randy Foye

Foye is penciled in as the starting point guard, but the arrival of Telfair could hurt him. I think Foye will start, but am guessing that Telfair's newfound maturity and work ethic will result in a timeshare at point guard. Both players will see plenty of minutes, but if Telfair blends in well with his new teammates, he could make life tough for both players to have much fantasy value. I think Foye goes from being a solid sleeper to having questionable fantasy value this season. Let's see how things shape out in training camp before going any further.

Mark Blount

Blount had a nice year last season in Minnesota, and all indications are that the loss of KG should help his production. Blount didn't miss a game last year and averaged 12 points and six boards, even with Garnett on board. Without KG, Blount should help Jefferson clean the glass and get more looks on the offensive end. Fifteen points, nine boards and (maybe) close to a block per game should offer sixth- or seventh-round value. He doesn't block enough shots for a center, so think twice before drafting him as a starting fantasy center. If Theo Ratliff shows up in Boston ready to play, Blount will take a fantasy hit. But the chances of Ratliff staying healthy are slim, if he even puts on a Wolves uniform. Remember, the whole reason Kevin McHale wanted him was for his expiring contract.

[Hache Man]

	Brand to miss at least six months with injury
	Elton Brand - F/C - LAC - Aug. 4 - 12:56 a.m. ET
	ESPN is reporting that Elton Brand is expected to miss at least six months due to his ruptured Achilles' tendon. He'll need surgery for the injury and while it's possible he could return in February, we're not convinced of the diagnosis. It would be surprising to see Brand come back by March, and if he does, it doesn't seem possible that he would be at full strength. Avoid him on draft day and take a look at guys like Al Thornton, Tim Thomas, Chris Kaman and Corey Maggette to help pick up the slack in Brand's absence. Brand is a great fantasy player and this injury will leave a void, but the good news is that he should be able to play at full strength in the 2008-09 season, if not sooner. Source: ESPN.com

[Hache Man]

5 Tough Questions
Off the top of my head I can already think of three superstars that are going to present draft-day dilemmas for fantasy owners. Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Elton Brand all come with very different issues and concerns this season, but they're not alone. Let's take a look at five difficult questions that many of us will have to answer prior to our fantasy drafts this October.

1. When do I take Kobe Bryant?

If Kobe was happy with Lakers' management and the team was in its current form, I would say that he should easily be the No. 1 pick this year. However, he went on a radio rampage in June, demanding to be traded and then softened his stance to demanding the team be improved. What he was really saying was "Get me Kevin Garnett." Now that Garnett is in Boston, Kobe knows that his last resort is Jermaine O'Neal, who, given his injury history, is not the ideal guy to help him win a title. The reality is that many teams in the league got better this season, but the Lakers weren't one of them. Yeah, they got Derek Fisher to play point guard (out of necessity), re-signed Luke Walton and Chris Mihm and drafted Javaris Crittenton, but these moves didn't necessarily improve the team.

The final straw for Kobe may have happened with Team USA last week when he had the pleasure of playing with Jason Kidd. LeBron James even walked away from the experience dissing his teammates, saying "It's going to be tough going back to the way we play in Cleveland." Kobe didn't say anything, but you know he's steaming inside and many people think a holdout is inevitable.

Which leads us back to, what do you do with him on draft night? Hopefully, Kobe will just suck it up, play and then opt out after the 2008-09 season. All indications are that he doesn't want any more negative publicity than he's gotten in the past three years, so he might be a good soldier and go to work. But if rumors of a holdout are still lingering at draft time, you'll have a very tough decision to make if you get a Top 5 pick in your draft. And at this point, I'm not sure what I would do with it.

2. How many Games will Dwyane Wade miss this season?

Wade missed 31 games last season after suffering a dislocated left shoulder. He had his shoulder surgically repaired, but of equal importance is the procedure he had done on his left knee. He had surgery to relieve the pain he was feeling from "jumper's knee" and word on the street is that coming back from the knee is the bigger problem of the two this season. Some people think he'll miss a couple weeks, while other have speculated that he might be out until Christmas.

You have to consider whether he'll still play with the same style and reckless abandon he did prior to the surgeries. Realistically, there has to be serious concerns that he could aggravate either injury at some point this season. And if that wasn't enough for us to think about, the gambling scandal with referee Tim Donaghy makes me wonder he's still going to get all the calls he's gotten in the past.

On a per-game basis last season, Wade was the most valuable fantasy player in the land. But when you add in the 31 missed games, his cumulative totals put him at No. 25, or the top pick of Round 3. That's a big difference, and I'd be surprised if Wade didn't miss around 20 games this season. He probably deserves to be taken in the second round (especially in keeper leagues), but he could turn out to be a bust if you use your first- or second-rounder on him this year. Hopefully we'll have a better idea of his projected return date closer to the draft.

3. Will Elton Brand play this season?

If you listen to Clippers' GM Elgin Baylor, Brand will be back this season, possibly as early as January. In my opinion, that's by far the best-case scenario and I'll be surprised to see Brand playing again by March 1. Then again, he's Elton Brand and easily could go on a rehab regimen that the average player couldn't handle. But a ruptured Achilles' is a major injury and there's a distinct possibility he might not play a single game this season. And without Brand and Shaun Livingston, the Clippers probably won't have to worry about having Brand back in time for the playoffs, either.

If you're in a non-keeper Roto league, I'd avoid him until the last round. If you're in a non-keeper Head to Head league, I'm thinking you could take him in the seventh or eighth round with hopes that he could help you out over the final three or four weeks of the season. Of course he may go before then, but that's fine. If you're in a keeper league and Brand is available to be drafted this season, you'll have to make a tough decision. Do you want to give up your fourth- or fifth-round pick this year so you can keep him at a huge discount next season? I think I might be willing to give up my fifth- or sixth-rounder for him, but the fourth is pushing it. In any case, there are plenty of things to think about with Brand between now and draft night, so you may as well start planning ahead.

4. Which Euro-stars will be Dirk Nowitzki and which ones will be Sarunas Jasikevicius?

This is a great question, as the hype surrounding guys like the Rockets' Luis Scola, Grizzlies' Juan Carlos Navarro and Warriors' Marco Belinelli has taken on a life of its own. Most of us have heard of these guys, and seen them play a little bit in various tournaments, but who really knows how they'll deal with America, the NBA and American teammates and coaches?

Scola might start at power forward, Navarro might start at point guard and Belinelli might start at shooting guard for their respective teams. I am actually buying the hype on all three and think each of them will offer some fantasy value this season. I'd rank them Scola, Navarro and Belinelli, as of today. Scola's got the best chance to succeed because his only competition for a job is Chuck Hayes. Navarro is now the fourth point guard in Memphis and they all have talent, but more on that later. Belinelli could challenge Monta Ellis for a job, but realistically, it doesn't seem possible that he can negatively impact Ellis this season. However, Nellie is probably hoping the hype surrounding Belinelli will help motivate Ellis.

Outside of these three guys, the other Euros coming into the league aren't as promising. Sorry Pacer fans – I know you were counting on drafting Stanko Barac this season, just like Larry Bird did in real life.

5. Which point guard battles are going to spell fantasy disaster?

Unfortunately, it only takes two solid point guards on one team to mess things up. Therefore, the answer is "all of them." Here's a quick look at the point guard situation on every team.

Clusters

These are the teams with either too many point guards, a pair of solid players who will split time evenly or a cluster of average ones. Every one of these teams offers a potential fantasy nightmare for fantasy owners, especially the Hawks, Rockets and Grizzlies

Hawks – Acie Law, Speedy Claxton (knee surgery), Tyronn Lue (knee surgery), Anthony Johnson

It's kind of scary to think that Acie Law may be the Hawks best option at the 1 on opening night.

Rockets – Rafer Alston, Mike James, Steve Francis, Aaron Brooks, John Lucas

Rafer Alston may have helped loosen things up in Houston by getting arrested yesterday, but that also just makes him harder to trade.

Clippers – Sam Cassell (back, groin, abdomen, foot, age), Brevin Knight (abdominal surgery)

The Clippers have an interesting scenario as well, as neither guy can stay healthy and they're really the only two options there.

Grizzlies – Damon Stoudamire, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Juan Carlos Navarro

There are too many cooks in the kitchen. This hurts my head to even think about who will start on opening night.

Heat – Jason Williams, Smush Parker, Chris Quinn

Lakers fans are laughing hysterically at the thought of Smush saving the Heat.

Timberwolves – Randy Foye, Sebastian Telfair

Foye was all set to be the starter but a rejuvenated Telfair is going to give him some competition.

Blazers – Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, Taurean Green

This is another headache inducing scenario.

Sonics – Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson, Delonte West

Ridnour and Watson are the blueprint for this category and now you can throw West into the mix, although he'll play a lot of 2 Guard.

Raptors – T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon

Ford holds the job outright in Toronto, but Calderon may not be too far from forcing a timeshare.

One-man wrecking crews

These are the guys with no competition for their job who generally don't have any major concerns and get it done for fantasy owners. They're listed in alphabetical order by team city, but Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd are the top three guys on this list.

Bobcats – Raymond Felton

Bulls – Kirk Hinrich

Pistons – Chauncey Billups

Bucks - Mo Williams

Hornets – Chris Paul

Nets – Jason Kidd

Knicks – Stephon Marbury

Sixers – Andre Miller

Suns – Steve Nash

Spurs – Tony Parker

Kings – Mike Bibby

Jazz - Deron Williams

Wizards – Gilbert Arenas

One-man question marks

These are the guys who don't have any competition for their job, but are unproven or injury prone.

Boston – Rajon Rondo - Rondo could be a big-time steal this year, or he could really struggle trying to keep his three superstars happy. I'm going with the former.

Nuggets – Chucky Atkins - Atkins is set to run the show in Denver, but he's Chucky Atkins.

Warriors – Baron Davis - Davis is on the same level with Nash and Kidd when healthy, but that seems to be the case only about 60% of the time.

Pacers – Jamaal Tinsley - Tinsley is a train wreck, but I doubt Bird and Jim O'Brien are ready to hand over the keys to Travis Diener, Marquis Daniels, Mike Dunleavy or Darrell Armstrong just yet.

Lakers – Derek Fisher - Fisher could be very solid for the Lakers, but he's never exactly been a fantasy star.

Magic – Jameer Nelson – Nelson looks primed for a breakout season after last year's disappointing campaign.

No-man wrecking crews

These are teams with fantasy point guards who have simply disappointed over the last few years, despite the fact they have no competition for their job.

Cavaliers – Larry Hughes, Eric Snow

Mavericks – Devin Harris, Jose Juan Barea, Greg Buckner

Hughes was a terrible fantasy point guard last season and Devin Harris never seems to show up until the playoffs for Dallas. Both players could have solid fantasy value this season, but it all depends on how their coaches use them. Hughes is on the down side of his career, but his foot is supposedly healthy again, and Harris has been a breakout candidate for three straight years. Maybe this is the one.

[Hache Man]

Should you draft the Stache?
The NBA Draft Guide is coming together and since there's hardly any news out there right now, I figured I'd give you a rundown of what we're working on. I have an expert NBA draft tonight so I should have the results of that for you next week.

Highlights of the guide include columns by yours truly, Rob Blackstien, Matt Lawrence, Jonathan Gangi and Matthew Fisher, as well as a humor piece from the fine folks at KFBA.net. We'll have mock draft breakdown, take look at rookies, sleepers, busts, breakout players, offseason moves and figure out who should be the No. 1 pick in your draft. We've also got a "draft theories" column, some bold predictions, a column on high-risk, high-reward type players and several NBA beat writers from around the country will weigh in with their thoughts on "burning questions." We'll have outlooks and rankings for more than 350 players, average draft position information and a schedule grid with some schedule analysis as well.

Here are some samples out of the guide, which should be available on line in September.

Player Outlooks

Rajon Rondo

2006: Rondo had a nice rookie season and actually provided serious value in spurts last year, occasionally flirting with triple-doubles and racking up steals like nobody's business. His strong play rendered Sebastian Telfair useless and pushed Delonte West over to shooting guard for much of the time, but Rondo was far to inconsistent to be used as an everyday starter in fantasy leagues.

What's Changed: Telfair and West are gone, and the C's added combo guard Eddie House, so the starting point guard job is clearly in Rondo's hands. Rondo should start at point guard all season and could lead the league in steals, although he's not a great shooter.

Outlook: While Rondo is all upside, he's going to be inconsistent and his inability to shoot it could become more exposed this season. But on the plus side, he will rack up some serious steals and should become a nightly fixture for the Celtics, likely getting 30-plus minutes per night. He's going to be one of the most popular fantasy sleepers this year, and if you can get him late enough, should be well worth the cost. And he should have no problems finding someone to feed it to with Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce on board.

Adam Morrison

2006: Rotoworld wasn't a big fan of Morrison's fantasy game coming into the season, and he had an inconsistent year for Charlotte. He only missed four games (all at the end of the season), but was quite up and down on his way to averaging just under 12 points per game. Not surprisingly, he never seemed to figure out how to play defense, but in the long haul, that's not really going to be his job. He did prove he could fill it up if he gets hot, and scored a season high of 30 points in late December. But there's no doubt he hit a wall quickly after posting his best numbers during the first month of his NBA career.

What's Changed: Matt Carroll re-signed with the Cats for a long-term deal which probably means Morrison is going to come off the bench this season. Walter Herrmann also emerged as a potential star last season, overshadowing Morrison in the process, and the team added Jason Richardson, who will start at shooting guard.

Outlook: With guys like Richardson, Carroll and Herrmann taking care of Charlotte's perimeter, Morrison will have plenty of competition to get his touches. He's a one-dimensional player and there's no doubt his confidence took a hit last season. Michael Jordan is sure to apply the pressure to Morrison to become great right now, which could end up hurting him in the long run. Morrison's worth a late flier, but only if you need threes.

Burning Questions

Is Dirk Nowitzki going to be on a mission this year to prove that he can perform in the clutch and to make people forget last season's Round 1 disaster? Secondly, is Devin Harris ready to start full time and breakout this season?

There is little doubt that Dirk Nowitzki will take it personally this season and be on a mission to get the Mavericks back to the NBA Finals. But it's like that every year for him. He's one of the league's best gym rats, which may help explain why he was dead-tired come playoff time last season. There is no reason to expect any falloff from him after the MVP season he had. If anything, he should get a little better in the passing department, an area of specific concentration in the summer.

Devin Harris is going to get the keys to the car. Now it's up to him to prove he can avoid wrecks. Avery Johnson can live with the occasional fender-bender. He just doesn't want his machine totaled. The time has come to find out if Harris is a full-time NBA point guard or if he's a bust as the fifth overall pick a few years back. It will be a rousing success if he can get his assists over five per game and keep his turnovers to a manageable number. Scoring isn't all that imperative, but I suspect if he plays 30 minutes a game, he'll have a decent bump in that area, too.

Eddie Sefko
Dallas Morning News

Busts

Andris Biedrins – Biedrins, another 21-year-old who broke out in Golden St. last year, will enter this season with very high expectations on his shoulders. But after he wore out down the stretch (certainly he wasn't used to that kind of workload on his skinny frame), we're a bit worried about his ability to duplicate his 2006-07 season. Biedrins is definitely a young center on the rise; just don't reach for him too soon.

Sleepers

Louis Williams – Williams, not 21 until October yet already a veteran of two NBA seasons, looks destined for a major breakout this season. He was slightly more involved in the Sixer offense last year, but in the post-Iverson era, minutes and touches are up for grabs. And judging by his solid Las Vegas Summer League showing followed up by a near-MVP effort in the Rocky Mountain Revue (24 PPG in four games), Williams is ready to stake his claim.

High Risk, High Reward

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Those who took Dwayne Wade with a mid-first round pick last season were sitting pretty come all-star time. Oh sure, Flash had missed a few games here and there, including four at the end of December/beginning of January because of his wrist, but with King James having a down season, Wade had spent most of the season battling for the title of fantasy stud of the year with Gilbert Arenas. Certainly judging by his February performance – 30.6 PPG, 8.1 APG, 4.3 RPG, 2.25 SPG, 2.0 BPG – he seemed to be winning.

But then disaster struck on February 21, when Flash went down with a separated shoulder – an injury that decimated the seasons of many a fantasy squad. Facing the option of season-ending surgery or weeks of intensive rehab, Wade opted to rehab his shoulder in the hopes of returning in time to help the Heat defend its title. Well, he made it back for all of five games, struggling to a 14.6 PPG average and then was unable to stop his team from an embarrassing opening round sweep at the hands of the Bulls. Oh, and then Wade underwent shoulder surgery anyways -- on May 15 – as well as a procedure on his knee. He's been shelved for six months and there's not a definite target date for his return just yet. No one doubts that Wade is a high first round pick – perhaps even first overall – when healthy. But the fact that he could miss several weeks at the beginning of the season will make you think twice about how quick you draft Flash this year.

Rookies

Jeff Green, drafted by the Celtics and dealt to Seattle in the Ray Allen deal, does all the little things, giving him potential to be an across-the-board talent like Boris Diaw. The Sonics don't believe it will be a problem to figure out how to get the athletic Green, who helped drive Georgetown to Big East supremacy, on the court at the same time as fellow small forward Kevin Durant.

Bold Predictions

The Celtics are as good in real life as they are on paper.

Seriously. You can't put Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce on the same team and have it fail. Yes, I've heard all the smack about our past few Olympic teams and witnessed the Iverson/Melo/Camby combo in Denver, but this is different. These guys are all veterans and have a single goal in mind – To win a ring. I honestly cannot see any of the three big names getting into it with each other, although I imagine there may be a lot of heart to hearts in Rajon Rondo's near future. The Big 3 are going to be a three-headed team leader and while I'm not sure how they're going to find enough balls to go around, I do know they're going to find a way to get it done. And you can bet that Reggie Miller is coming on board. If you were Reggie could you say no to those guys? Forget about the Pacers – That legacy has been written and that chapter of his life is over. I don't know if the Celtics will have enough chemistry to win it all, but I would not be surprised to see it happen. And I can't wait to watch.

Team Outlooks

Chicago Bulls

What's New

The Bulls signed free agent Joe Smith and drafted big men Joakim Noah, Aaron Gray and swingman JamesOn Curry. If healthy, Smith should help stunt the growth of Noah and second-year phenom Tyrus Thomas this season, but also give the Bulls a legitimate inside scorer that they so desired.

Position Battles

Point Guard

Kirk Hinrich should be locked in at point guard with Chris Duhon backing him up. Hinrich should be primed for another nice season, while socialite Duhon will try to stay out of the doghouse and hit threes off the bench.

Shooting Guard

Ben Gordon and Scott Skiles haven't exactly seen eye-to-eye about whether or not Gordon should be starting or not over the past three seasons, but the starting shooting guard job appears to be Gordon's this year. He'll be backed up by Thabo Sefolosha and the rookie, Curry, but should get a ton of minutes, points and threes again. He's a little one-dimensional from a fantasy standpoint, but still finished last season with late second-round value in non-turnover leagues.

Small Forward

Luol Deng fully broke out last season, sending Andres Nocioni to the bench. Deng is a bona fide fantasy stud and should be taken in the second or third round in most drafts this year. Nocioni is coming off a serious foot injury, but should be a solid sixth man for the Bulls and a safe mid-round fantasy selection. Just beware that his foot injury could raise its head again this season.

Power Forward

The arrival of Smith is going to hurt the promising value of Thomas and Noah, but all three will see minutes at power forward this season. Smith should be worth a mid-round pick, but it's not a bad idea to handcuff Thomas to him given Smith's fragile knees. Noah could have some value at some point during the season, but is probably a better candidate for the waiver wire than a draft pick. Viktor Khryapa should see more minutes this year, but doesn't offer much fantasy value due to Chicago's depth at forward.

Center

Ben Wallace is obviously the starting center for the Bulls and will be backed up by Gray. Gray can score if necessary, but it would take an injury to Wallace for him to have much value. Wallace will hurt you in scoring and free throw percentage, but does enough in the rebounds, blocks and steals departments that he's still one of the better fantasy centers around.

Summary

The Bulls quietly added inside scoring when they signed Smith, but he's probably not enough to push them over the top. They'll need huge years from Hinrich, Gordon and Deng again, and will need Wallace to stay healthy. The Bulls should be one of the better teams in the East, but we're not ready to send them to the Finals just yet.

Draft Theories

Theory #3: Do not draft rookies, as they will inevitably hit the infamous Rookie Wall.

For those who have not been obsessively following basketball, the Rookie Wall is an imaginary point in the season when a rookie falls apart due to exhaustion. The theory is based on the fact that an 82-game NBA season is much longer than your typical college basketball season. Therefore, at some time in the season, a player will grow too tired to play effectively and tank the rest of the year.

My first thought about this theory is that even if it is accurate, the strategy makes no sense. If a Rookie Wall does exist, then wouldn't it make sense to draft rookies and play them while they play well? Then, at some point mid-season, you trade the rookie while his value is high to an unsuspecting owner, who must watch in horror as the rookie hits the wall.

There are more flaws to this theory. How many rookies start the season playing big minutes? Not many. Most are eased into the lineup, or only get a chance to play regularly at some point in the second half. Trying to determine what rookie hits the Rookie Wall and when this collision takes place is a dizzying affair.

My advice is to feel free to draft rookies that you think will play well early in the season. After they have played well for about two months, deal the player unless you are in a keeper league. Do this, and you'll never have to worry about the rookie wall—if indeed it exists at all.

[Hache Man]

Mock: LeBron to Dr. A at No. 3
Now that three of my four football drafts are out of the way, it's time to get serious about basketball. Last week I took part in a mock draft, featuring 12 industry insiders and 14 rounds of fun. Because the draft was put together solely for the purpose of our NBA Draft Guide, I'm not going to spill the beans on the entire thing. However, I'll give you my team as well as highlights and lowlights from each round.

This is the slowest time of the year in the NBA, and it's made even slower by the fact that Team USA is running people out of the gym in Vegas right now. And in case you haven't been watching, Kobe Bryant is now making a case for not only being the best offensive player in the game, but he could be the best defensive player as well. He's taking on the toughest defensive assignment each night, playing stellar defense, hustling and diving for loose balls. When you hear some of your anti-NBA buddies rip on the lack of defense, tell them to tune in to one of the U.S. FIBA games in Vegas.

The most pleasant surprise from the tournament is the emergence of Luis Scola for Argentina. He'll soon be playing for the Rockets and we've got him penciled in starting at power forward, in front of recently re-signed Chuck Hayes. I've had a hunch about Scola being the real deal for some time and, as you'll soon see, ended up with him in this draft.

Reggie Miller won't be playing for Boston, but James Posey will be. Danny Ainge has easily had the best summer of his career and it's possible that all the negative attention he's brought upon himself in the last 10 years will be erased with this summer's moves. I'm not sure Ainge deserves (or takes) all the credit for how things have played out, as there was a lot of luck involved. But it started with his decision to trade Jeff Green, Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak to Seattle for Ray Allen and ended with the signing of Posey this week. And my favorite part about the whole thing is that I really don't think any of the C's Big 3 are going to lose much fantasy value.

Free agents like Mickael Pietrus, Ruben Patterson and Charlie Bell are still in limbo, but most of the big names are now off the board.

Let's get to the first NBA draft of the year. We set it up Roto-style, with eight categories, no turnovers, 12 teams and 14 players on each roster. Start 4 guards, 4 forwards and 2 centers with four players on the bench. Here's the draft order (randomly selected by the good folks at Mockdraftcentral.com) and participants. I'd like to thank Jason Pliml and Geoff Stein at Mockdraftcentral.com for facilitating our draft. They did a fantastic job and pulled it off without a hitch, despite the fact that it's still only August and football drafts were in full swing.

1. Dave Gawron – Rotocommando.com
2. Matt Buser – Yahoo.com
3. Steve Alexander – NBCSports.com/Rotoworld.com
4. Matt Lawrence – Rotoworld.com
5. Geoff Stein – MockDraftCentral.com
6. Mike Obert – Beckett Publishing
7. Brian Styers – USAToday.com
8. David Klyce – HoopsKlyce.com
9. Brian McKitish – ESPN.com
10. Matthew Fisher – Rotoworld.com
11. Jonathan Gangi – Rototworld.com
12. Keith Broham – aka "The Broham" - KFBA.net

MY TEAM

Round 1 – LeBron James – F - Cavaliers
Round 2 – Gerald Wallace – F - Bobcats
Round 3 – Marcus Camby – C - Nuggets
Round 4 – Kevin Martin – G - Kings
Round 5 – Tony Parker – PG - Spurs
Round 6 – Corey Maggette – G/F - Clippers
Round 7 – Monta Ellis – G - Warriors
Round 8 – Al Harrington – F/C - Warriors
Round 9 – Boris Diaw – F/C - Suns
Round 10 – Chucky Atkins – G - Nuggets
Round 11 – Tim Thomas – F - Clippers
Round 12 – Marvin Williams – F - Hawks
Round 13 – Luis Scola – PF - Rockets
Round 14 – Joe Smith – PF – Bulls

Here's how Round 1 looked, for reference, and then I'll talk about each of my picks.

Round 1

1. Shawn Marion - Gawron
2. Kevin Garnett - Buser
3. LeBron James - Alexander
4. Kobe Bryant – Lawrence
5. Gilbert Arenas - Stein
6. Dirk Nowitzki - Obert
7. Steve Nash - Styers
8. Yao Ming - Klyce
9. Amare Stoudemire - McKitish
10. Tim Duncan - Fisher
11. Josh Smith - Gangi
12. Dwyane Wade - Broham

As for Round 1, I thought it actually included a couple surprises. Jason Kidd is noticeably absent (he went with the first pick of Round 2), while it was weird to actually see Josh Smith taken in the first round. I mean, I've thought about him being worth a first-rounder for a couple years now and even considered taking him there last year at one point, but this is the first time I've ever actually seen it happen. Maybe that's where he'll be for the next 12 years, or maybe this is a one-time deal. But I had him targeted in Round 2 simply because of the return of Joe Johnson and the field goal percentage. Then again, it's easy to fall in love with the blocks, steals and dunks, and, as you know, I love Smoov. I can't argue with the pick or even begin to make fun of Gangi for making it. And truth be told, I'm even a little jealous.

The other surprise to me was Dwyane Wade going at No. 12. It's certainly not shocking, especially given the fact that he was the most potent fantasy performer on a per-game basis last season. But there is a lot of risk involved here, as you are probably well aware that he's likely to miss at least the first couple weeks of the season after undergoing knee and shoulder surgery. The good news is that may be all the time he misses, but the bad news is that there are no guarantees on when he returns and whether or not he stays healthy. In fact, I have him projected at playing just 63 games this year, and that could be a generous number.

I can't really argue with The Broham for taking Wade at 12, but I would have gone with Kidd, Pau Gasol or Andre Iguodala there instead.

Let's break down my team, round by round.

Round 1 – LeBron James

If Garnett was there, I think I was going to take him. And after seeing what Kobe's doing for Team USA, I'm a little sorry I didn't go that direction here. But the bottom line is that we know LeBron is going to have a huge year, and I truly felt lucky to get him with the third pick. I'm not sure there's a safer No. 3 pick this year than LeBron.

As for Kobe, it's important to remember that he actually likes Team USA and he's leaving it all on the court every night. The same can't be said about his relationship with the Lakers, and the constant internet ramblings about a possible holdout make LeBron seem like the safer pick. Especially after Kobe's great experience with Coach K. It's going to be quite a letdown for him to return to the Lakers. And like I said, if you get the No. 3 in your draw and come away with LeBron or Kobe, you have to feel good about the start of your draft.

Round 2 – Gerald Wallace

Swiping Wallace at the end of Round 2 and then grabbing Marcus Camby in Round 3 assures me of four things. Plenty of blocks, steals, rebounds and injury concern. Wallace struggled for the entire first half of the season, started to turn it on after the All-Star Break and then dominated the fantasy world in the final month or so of the season. He probably won't score as much this season if his teammates are healthy, including new arrival Jason Richardson, but he should have better success in the blocks and boards departments, returning to the form of his previous season when he averaged at least two of each. I always like having Wallace or Josh Smith on the squad, and after missing out on Smith, I wanted to make sure I got Wallace. The good news is that he only missed 10 games last season, but in reality, it seems like he was hurt for the whole first half. If he plays at least 70 games, I will have no regrets with the pick.

Round 3 – Marcus Camby

Camby flirted with having first-round value last season so he felt like a bargain in the third this year. He managed to play in 70 games last season and I'm hoping he can do it again this year. The blocks, boards, steals and field goal percentage will be there and I feel like after three picks, I've got most categories covered already, with the exception of threes and free throw percentage. It's obvious this team is going to live and die with the health of my second and third picks, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.

The surprise of the second round happened when Fisher took Al Jefferson with the third pick. I think Jefferson is going to have a big year, but given his fragile ankles and the fact that guys like Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Chris Bosh, Andre Iguodala, Deron Williams and Wallace were still on the board made the Jefferson pick a little risky in my mind. I would not be surprised if he could have gotten Jefferson with his next pick, but we'll never know. And if Jefferson stays healthy and dominates in Minnesota like he should, we'll probably look back on this pick as a good one.

Another interesting pick in Round 3 was Dwight Howard, whom Lawrence took with the fourth pick. I love Howard's game, but simply put, his free throw percentage is devastating in this format. Luckily, we don't count turnovers, so he's not a bad pick here, but Lawrence has basically punted free throw percentage at this point.

Round 4 – Kevin Martin

I'm still not sure how I feel about Martin here, but it was late in the round and most of the premiere players were off the board. It's hard to argue with Martin's numbers from last season, when he easily amassed second-round value. And given the fact the Kings did almost nothing in the offseason, Martin should easily make for a nice value pick late in the fourth round. And given the fact that Mike Miller, Luol Deng and Ron Artest were all selected around the same time, and I needed a guard, Martin looks pretty good to me. There were no shockers in Round 4, although Mehmet Okur went to Stein, who will now still be looking for blocks after not getting any from his first four picks, including a starting center. But he's got an early edge in threes.

Round 5 – Tony Parker

This was not a typical "Dr. A pick," as I tend to go for players with more "pizzazz." But Parker is a solid fantasy point guard who typically offers fourth-round value. I've now got two fun forwards with monster potential, a fantasy stud in Camby (when healthy) and two very solid, if not spectacular, guards.

Round 5 also saw rookies Kevin Durant (first pick - Gawron) and Greg Oden (sixth pick - Obert) fall off the board. I think Round 5 is probably right for both players, and Durant correctly went in front of Oden. Oden's injury issues concern me, but I don't have much room to talk after taking Wallace and Camby. Other Round 5 players included Ben Gordon, Tyson Chandler, Andrei Kirilenko and Ricky Davis. I've made it no secret that I love Davis in Minnesota this season, but there's also a decent chance he'll be traded. If he stays in Minnesota and is allowed to play with the kids, I predict he'll be the steal of this draft with the last pick in the round.

Round 6 – Corey Maggette

My Maggette pick in Round 6 drew some comments like "nice one" and "damn, I wanted him," which is always good to hear. With Elton Brand (Achilles) out for most of the season and Maggette guaranteed a starting job, he could be a big-time steal here. I think he's a solid sixth-round pick in all formats, but like a few of my other guys, he has some injury concerns. I'm betting he returns to form this season and would not be surprised to see him on several of my teams this year.

Other sixth-round picks included Rajon Rondo, Shaquille O'Neal, Mo Williams and David West. West is probably the best value pick, Rondo has the most potential, as he could lead the league in steals, while Shaq is a full-blown free throw percentage killer that I have little use for in fantasy leagues that use that category. As for Mo Williams, he should be one of the more solid fantasy point guards this season with his new contract in Milwaukee, if he can stay healthy.

Round 7 – Monta Ellis

The arrival of sharp-shooting Marco Belinelli in Golden State provides some concern about Ellis and his minutes, but in Round 7, I had absolutely no hesitation in snagging him. He was last year's Most Improved Player and finished the year with late fourth-round value. Getting him in the seventh looks like a solid value pick to me, as he should only continue to get better over the next couple seasons. And while Belinelli's big summer is a cause for concern, I don't see any way that he realistically starts in front of Ellis. The other thing I like about Ellis is that he will see a lot of minutes at point guard when Baron Davis goes down. I guess I should say "if" he goes down, but we all know it's a given.

Danny Granger was the other sweet value pick of the round, while LaMarcus Aldridge, Richard Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Morris Peterson and Richard Hamilton were all solid picks as well. Nenad Krstic, who is coming off knee surgery, might not have been worth a seventh-round pick, but we have to play two centers. I just think it's going to take Krstic half a season to get it going. Because of the two centers requirement, other reaches for guys who should qualify at center, like Eddy Curry, Andrea Bargnani and Andris Biedrins, also came off the board in this round.

Round 8 – Al Harrington

I think Harrington is a very solid eighth-round pick, especially given his sudden penchant for draining threes and because there's no one else to play power forward in Oakland, unless you're scared of Austin Croshere suddenly reverting to his value of six or seven years ago. Add to it the fact he should qualify at center again this season and Harrington looks like the perfect pick here.

Other players that went in Round 8 include Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jameer Nelson, Darko Milicic, and rookies Acie Law and Mike Conley. While the rookie point guards have potential, Nelson should be primed for a comeback season and Darko offers some upside, I'm thinking Harrington was by far the closest thing to a sure bet in the round.

Round 9 – Boris Diaw

Diaw should qualify at forward and center, especially without Kurt Thomas (Seattle) around to back up Amare Stoudemire this season. And with Stoudemire's potential knee issues raising their head at some point, Diaw could end up being a fantasy factor. He'll start the season on my bench, but the bottom line is that I'm expecting a bounce-back year for one of last season's biggest disappointments. And if he doesn't work out for me, I only blew a ninth-rounder on him. I'm saying the fact he qualifies at center makes the risk worth it.

And when comparing Diaw to other ninth-round guys like rookie Al Horford, Raja Bell (coming off knee surgery), Peja Stojakovic (yep – still in the league), Paul Millsap (stuck behind Carlos Boozer) and Charlie Villanueva (shoulder surgery), Diaw looks like he has a chance to be the steal of this round.

Round 10 – Chucky Atkins

This is the pick I actually had a bad dream about the night after this draft. I will tell you that I think Chucky has the potential to be a very solid fantasy point guard this season, but the fact remains that he's still Chucky Atkins. He'll start for the Nuggets and is nearly guaranteed to start at point guard, sliding Allen Iverson over to shooting guard. I needed a point guard and my options were fairly limited at this point, as Jarrett Jack, Derek Fisher, Devin Harris and Rafer Alston were the other PGs taken in this round. I'm not sure that Atkins will be better than all four of those guys, but I would feel safe betting that he won't be much worse than any of them. And he should bury a ton of threes in Denver this season in addition to racking up dimes while feeding the ball to Melo, Camby, Nene and AI. Looks like a safe 10th-rounder to me.

Round 11 – Tim Thomas

Someone said "Thanks for saving me from taking Thomas," just after I scooped him up. I kind of feel the same way, and "You're welcome." But someone is going to have to score and play power forward in L.A. until Brand gets back. We all know the potential is there for Thomas, but he's never quite lived up the expectations placed on him. And if he can't do so this year, there's no hope for him in the future. I passed on Andres Nocioni, Mike Dunleavy, Al Thornton, Hakim Warrick and Zaza Pachulia to get Thomas, which may or may not pay off this season. And for the record, if Brand was not hurt, Thomas would not have been drafted at all. If my hunch is right, Thomas should be an excellent source of points, boards and threes, but we'll have to wait and see how this one plays out.

Round 12 – Marvin Williams

I really didn't need another forward with potential here, but Marvin jumped off the page at me when it was my turn to pick. I like third-year players and felt like taking a chance on Marvin instead of going with mediocre veterans like Luke Ridnour and Troy Murphy, and breakout candidates like Louis Williams and Travis Outlaw. All in all, I don't think taking a flyer on Marvin in the 12th round is a bad idea at all.

Trevor Ariza, rookie Morris Almond (who I really like), Daniel Gibson and Steve Francis all went in this round as well, but don't offer much more potential this season than Marvin. That said, if Francis gets to play both guard positions, stays healthy and wins the admiration of coach Rick Adelman, he could bring a windfall of fantasy production with him. He looks like a perfect 12th-round pick to me.

Round 13 – Luis Scola

Scola is impressing everyone who's watched him play in Vegas over the past 10 days and it looks like he's going to win the starting power forward job in Houston. He has a nose for the ball, an excellent sense of how to play and looks very confident on the court. I love Scola with this pick and got several accolades when I made the selection.

Stein took Adam Morrison in this round, but I don't think he's worth drafting this year, regardless of when you want him. His name and mustache are the best things going for him (which isn't really saying much) and with Matt Carroll and Jason Richardson on hand, I don't see how he's going to get enough minutes or shots to offer much production. In fact, with Walter Herrmann also around, I doubt he's even got a realistic shot at being the sixth man. Trust me on this one and stay away from Morrison on draft night.

Round 14 – Joe Smith

I closed out the draft with Joe Smith, who appears to be the starting forward for the Bulls. They were desperate for an inside scoring presence and got one in Smith. He may do more to hurt the value of guys like Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah than actually provide fantasy value this season, but if he's healthy, he should make for a solid 14th-rounder. And if he doesn't work out, I'll simply cut him and pick up a guard. With only five guards in my stable, cutting Smith (or possibly Thomas) is a real possibility.

Other last-rounders included Drew Gooden, Bobby Simmons, Juan Carlos Navarro and Yi Jianlian. Knowing you can likely get Navarro and Yi in the last two rounds of your draft should be a nice feeling.

[Hache Man]

Overvalued and injured players
Happy Labor Day, everyone. Today's column will offer a mish-mash of information, as I'll take a look at 10 players who are likely to be drafted too high in this year's fantasy drafts, as well as injuries to keep an eye on when training camp starts next month.

But first, congratulations to Team USA for their gold-medal romp in Vegas for the FIBA Americas Championship. Barring injuries, the team should look about the same when they travel to Beijing next summer for the Olympics, although Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will likely be with the team at that time. Mike Miller and Tyson Chandler could be the odd men out, although Tayshaun Prince could stay home as well. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then, and given Wade's (shoulder, knee) and Bosh's (foot) injuries, there's no guarantee they'll be ready for action next summer. We'll see. The other Olympic teams will also have a slightly different look, as several big-name Euro players were not in Vegas to help their teams.

I don't know if you saw any of the FIBA games, but Team USA looked incredible. They truly played as a team, with Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd playing inspired, team-oriented ball, deferring to Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James for the scoring. Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard also looked great, and Howard's free throw shooting was much better with a synthetic ball. He also shot the synthetic ball well from the line last year, but suffered at the stripe when the leather ball was reintroduced. More on Howard in a minute.

10 Overvalued Players

1. Dwyane Wade – G – Miami Heat

Wade's shoulder and knee injuries remain valid concerns for potential owners, and there's a good chance he could miss a lot of games this season. Chances are that Wade will go at the end of the first round or early in the second in your draft, but I think the risk probably outweighs the reward if you use one of those picks on him. If Wade is available late in the second or in the third round, he probably becomes a value pick, but taking him with a Top 14 pick could result in a fantasy disaster if Wade is slowed after his pair of offseason surgeries.

2. Dwight Howard – C – Orlando Magic

Howard looked like a beast in Vegas and is going to be a monster again this season. But his ridiculous turnover numbers, combined with disastrous free throw shooting is a rough combination in leagues that count both categories. He barely topped 60% from the line last year and committed nearly four TOs per game. He's a fun fantasy player to own and his domination on the glass and defensive side of things will help offset his deficiencies. But if you're league counts TOs and free throw percentage, Howard can hurt you as much as he helps. And taking him in the second or third round (which is where he'll probably be taken) is just too early for someone who can cause you to lose two categories every week.

3. Eddy Curry – C – New York Knicks

Curry is a deceiving player, as he led the Knicks in scoring last year while shooting a high percentage from the floor. But when you take into consideration he doesn't block shots or rebound very well for a 300-pound, 7-footer, and commits a boatload of turnovers, Curry really become nothing more than a big man who scores. Add in the fact he can't shoot free throws, and he really doesn't deserve to be taken before the ninth or 10th round in your draft. But based on the fact he plays for such a high-profile team and is a center, he will likely be taken a few rounds too early in your league.

4. Ron Artest – F – Sacramento Kings

Artest is one of the most high-profile basket cases in all of sports. There are constant concerns of him getting into trouble, retiring, saying something stupid or off the wall, and feuding with teammates. He famously struggled to get along with Mike Bibby last season, pulling the rest of his team down with him. New coach Reggie Theus will hopefully be able to get through to Artest, but I'm not sure I see it happening. When Artest is playing well and is motivated, he's one of the premier fantasy players. But he's already been suspended for the season's first seven games, and could be facing several more suspensions before the season is over. He's as unstable as they come, and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him suddenly shut it down for the season, or his career, much earlier than scheduled. He had third-round value last season and was taken in the fourth round of our mock draft a few weeks ago. He's already at a maximum of 75 games played, and that number should continue to decrease as the season wears on. I think he's a value pick in the sixth round, but is strictly risky business being taken prior to that. My advice is to let someone else deal with that headache this season. Especially given the fact he hit just 37.4% of his shots last year.

5. Leandro Barbosa – G – Phoenix Suns

Barbosa was amazing last season and led the FIBA tournament in scoring this summer. He was easily the best value pick in last year's draft given his unexpected big numbers, but there's no guarantee he does it again this year. I like Barbosa's game and his situation in Phoenix, but taking him in the second or third round could prove to be a mistake. He finished last season with Top 15 value, but might be lucky to crack the Top 50 this year, especially if Grant Hill (ankle, abdomen) and Raja Bell (knee surgery) are healthy. Barbosa was taken with the first pick of the fourth round in our mock draft, and could prove to be very worthy of the pick. But I'm guessing Barbosa will be a popular third-round pick this fall. Tread carefully.

6. Al Jefferson – PF – Minnesota Timberwolves

Jefferson was great when healthy last year and fully broke out with the Celtics. He's now in Minnesota and should be the focal point of their offense, making him a high-profile fantasy player this season. I will always have concerns about his ankles and the fact of the matter is that he offered just sixth-round value in 69 games last year. Jefferson was shockingly taken with the 15th overall pick in our mock draft, which is just too high given the injury history and fact he's with a new team. I think Jefferson is going to be a strong fantasy player this season, but I would not feel good about drafting him before guys like Allen Iverson, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Tracy McGrady, just to name a few. He becomes a value pick in the fifth round, but he's probably going to be taken in the third round in your draft, which isn't really justifiable.

7. Amare Stoudemire – C – Phoenix Suns

I was down on Amare last year and ended up eating my words, as he remarkably didn't miss a game in his return from microfracture surgery. He says he's healthy and ready to win an NBA Championship, and he certainly looked healthy in Vegas. He's going to be taken in the first round of your draft and I still think last year's 82-game run was somewhat of a fluke. I could easily be writing about eating my words again at this time next year, but I would honestly be shocked if he doesn't miss at least 10 games this season. That said, we've still got him ranked pretty high going into the new season. We'll see.

8. Yao Ming – C – Houston Rockets

After missing a total of two games in his first three seasons, Yao played in just 48 games last year, and 57 the prior season. He also got married over the summer, although I'm not sure that will impact his performance much. Given the high number of missed games over the past two seasons, he has become an injury risk. Good centers are hard to come by in fantasy hoops and Yao is probably the best when he's healthy. But with growing injury concerns along with a new run-and-gun coach in Rick Adelman, I'm a little leery of Yao this time around. He'll be taken in the first round of your draft (and might fall into the early second), and while it's tough to argue with taking him there, the chances of the move paying off appear to be about 50/50.

9. LaMarcus Aldridge – PF – Portland Trailblazers

Aldridge is at the top of everyone's sleeper list this year, which means he's no longer a sleeper. The internet age means there really aren't any sleepers anymore and as the hype machine continues to tout Aldridge, his draft position will continue to creep up until the point he's no longer a value pick. Aldridge didn't even offer fantasy value over the full season last year, but came on in a big way before being shut down early with a heart problem. His heart should be fine, but he's dealing with a nagging heel injury now, although he's back to playing at full speed again. The bottom line on Aldridge is that he should be one of the best players on the Blazers this season and is worth a mid-round fantasy pick. But given the hype about this "sleeper," he will probably be taken in the fifth or sixth round of your draft, which he might have trouble living up to.

10. Josh Smith – F – Atlanta Hawks

Smith had mid second-round value last season and is one of the more popular fantasy players due to his incredible shot blocking skills. He also collects a lot of steals, racks up boards, can create his own shot and has the potential to hit 3-pointers. He really turned it on last year when Joe Johnson went down with an injury, which is my main cause of concern with him this season. I have no problem drafting Smith in the second round, and am protecting him there in my main league this season. But I get the feeling he's going to be taken in the first round of many drafts this year, just like he was in our mock draft. As I said last week, I really don't even have a problem taking Smith in the first round, but I do think he may have trouble attaining that kind of value when it's all said and done. Smith's defense is nearly as bad as anyone's in the league, and most of his blocks come when he's making up for a defensive error. He also causes defensive rotation nightmares for his teammates and Josh Childress even reportedly refused to play with him at one point last season. If he learned something in his big-man camp over the summer, maybe his defense will be better and he'll earn the respect of his teammates. And even if he's the exact same player he was last year, the blocks and steals will make up for his deficiencies. I'm just not convinced he's going to be a value player, especially if Johnson returns to dominate the Hawks' offense.

Injury Watch

Atlanta Hawks

Speedy Claxton – knee
Tyronn Lue – knee
Joe Johnson – calf

Johnson should be fine to start the season, but it remains to be seen if Claxton and Lue are recovered from their knee surgeries. Their combined health will have a huge impact on the value of Acie Law, as well as their own.

Boston Celtics

Tony Allen – knee

Allen is hoping to return in November and could emerge as Rajon Rondo's primary backup at point guard. This is Allen's second major knee surgery, and it could take him much of the season to regain his form.

Charlotte Bobcats

Sean May – knee

May's career could be cut short due to his knee problems but if he's healthy, he could eat into Emeka Okafor's minutes. Speaking of Okafor, he ended the season healthy, but played in just 67 games last year with a serious calf injury.

Chicago Bulls

Joakim Noah – rotator cuff
Andres Nocioni – foot

Noah should be ready to go for camp, but isn't likely to have fantasy value this season. Nocioni did not play for Argentina this summer due to his lingering foot injury, which will be a major concern for him as training camp starts next month.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Hughes – foot

Hughes says he's over his foot injury and ready to go this season. However, it's the type of injury that could show up again. Hughes should start at point guard, unless they trade for Mike Bibby.

Dallas Mavericks

Erick Dampier – shoulder
DJ Mbenga – knee

Both players had surgery over the summer and we expect them to be healthy for camp. Dampier has a little late value, while Mbenga does not.

Denver Nuggets

Kenyon Martin – knee
Nene – calf

Kmart says he's going to be ready to go on opening night, but we're far from convinced of that at this point. Nene was injured in Saturday's loss to Argentina, suffering a serious calf injury. He could miss the beginning of training camp, and you'll want to monitor him closely in the preseason.

Detroit Pistons

No injury concerns, but we still don't know where Chris Webber will end up.

Golden State Warriors

Monta Ellis – back

Ellis was scheduled to practice with Team USA in August, but had to pull out with a bad back. Back injuries are always a concern, so monitor this situation closely in camp.

Houston Rockets

Rafer Alston – legal

Alston was arrested twice in August, once for allegedly spitting on a man and once for allegedly stabbing a man in the throat. The Rockets already have too many guards on the roster and Alston's future is clearly up in the air right now.

Indiana Pacers

Jermaine O'Neal – knee
Marquis Daniels – knee
David Harrison – shoulder
Jeff Foster – back

O'Neal, Daniels and Foster are all reportedly healthy and ready to go, while Harrison's shoulder may or may not be ready for camp. O'Neal and Daniels will probably be hurt at some point during the season, but it sounds like they should be ready to go in October.

Los Angeles Clippers

Shaun Livingston – knee
Elton Brand – Achilles

Livingston isn't likely to play this season, and while Brand says he'll be back as soon as possible, we may not see him until March.

Los Angeles Lakers

Kwame Brown – shoulder, ankle
Lamar Odom – shoulder, knee
Chris Mihm – ankle

Brown had shoulder surgery this summer but is expected to be ready for camp, while the last we heard, Odom was contemplating knee surgery after undergoing shoulder surgery earlier in the summer. Mihm was out after ankle surgery last year, but the hope is that all three players are ready for camp.

Memphis Grizzlies

Juan Carlos Navarro – leg
Kyle Lowry – wrist
Damon Stoudamire – knee
Brian Cardinal – knee

Navarro is going to miss time in Eurobasket with a leg injury but should be ready for training camp. Lowry and Stoudamire are said to be healthy, but both could see problems with the injuries they dealt with for much of last season. Cardinal had surgery this summer and is just hoping to play for the Grizzlies this season.

Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade – knee, shoulder
Wayne Simien – knee

I don't think I need to say anymore about Wade here, and Simien, who was out last season with salmonella poisoning, had knee surgery this summer.

Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Simmons – heel
Andrew Bogut – foot
Charlie Villanueva – shoulder

Simmons is hoping to be ready to return from his heel injury this year, but he's a guy you definitely want to watch in camp. Bogut couldn't play for Australia this summer after missing the end of the season with a foot injury and Villanueva is hoping to be ready for camp after undergoing shoulder surgery last March. Villanueva is probably more threatened by the arrival of Yi Jianlian than he is his shoulder injury.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Mark Madsen – shoulder

Madsen was injured in a boating accident this summer and had shoulder surgery. He may or may not be ready for camp.

New Jersey Nets

Josh Boone - knee
Nenad Krstic – knee

Both players are coming off knee surgery, and while both should play this season, they may not be at full strength. The uncertainty surrounding their health could mean big things for Jamaal Magloire.

New Orleans Hornets

Peja Stojakovic – back
Chris Paul – foot

Paul is expected to be at full strength by camp, while Stojakovic remains one of the bigger mysteries heading into October. Both players should be watched closely next month.

New York Knicks

Quentin Richardson – back
David Lee – leg

We don't have either player on our injury list, but Lee's leg injury was a huge problem last season, while Richardson had back surgery. Lee played in summer league for the Knicks, while Richardson says he's ready to go. Again, these are two guys we need to watch closely in camp.

Orlando Magic

No injury concerns

Philadelphia 76ers

Shavlik Randolph – ankle

Randolph missed most of last season after breaking his ankle and is hoping to be ready to go this season. He could be named the starting power forward, if healthy.

Phoenix Suns

Raja Bell – knee

Bell is coming off knee surgery, so he's another player to put on your watch list for training camp.

Portland Trailblazers

Greg Oden – tonsils, back
LaMarcus Aldridge – heel
Darius Miles – knee

Oden should be good to go, but he doesn't appear to be the healthiest of kids early in his career. Aldridge's heel is a pretty big concern, but it sounds like he's back in action and looking good. Miles has been working out like crazy to overcome microfracture surgery, but we'd be surprised to see him play a minute for the Blazers this season.

Sacramento Kings

Shareef Abdur-Rahim – knee
Ron Artest – suspended

SAR had offseason knee surgery and will be competing with Kenny Thomas and Mikki Moore for the starting power forward job, if he's healthy enough. As you already know, Artest will be in street clothes for the first seven games of the season.

San Antonio Spurs

Francisco Elson – eye
Tony Parker – ankle

Parker appears to be over his ankle injury he suffered with France this summer, but it's worth noting as camp starts. Elson had orbital surgery and is questionable to be ready for camp, not that he has any fantasy value.

Seattle Supersonics

Earl Watson – ankle
Wally Szczerbiak – ankle
Robert Swift - knee

Watson suffered ligament damage in his left ankle late last season and spent much of the summer in a protective boot. He should be fine by training camp, but it will worth keeping an eye on his condition in the upcoming weeks. Szczerbiak's ankle issues are well documented and it will be interesting to see how they are in October, along with his bum knee. Swift is coming off knee surgery, but is said to look great and be ready to go.

Toronto Raptors

Chris Bosh – foot
Jorge Garbajosa – leg, ankle

Bosh's foot injury is still lingering and kept him off Team USA this summer. That's a huge red flag for the upcoming season, but he was able to fight through the injury for much of last year. The Raps have told Garbajosa they want him to have ankle surgery so he'll be able to prolong his career after a devastating injury last year, but he is not having any of it. Instead, he's choosing to try to play in Eurobasket this week, which could be a big mistake. Garbajosa's insistence on risking further injury and ignoring the Raptors' wishes could hurt his playing time if he shows up to camp in one piece.

Utah Jazz

Matt Harpring – knee

Matt Harpring had another knee surgery in the offseason, which has become his ritual. He probably won't be moving at full speed when the season starts.

Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas – knee

Arenas had season-ending knee surgery last year but should be back in action for camp. His was not an ACL surgery, but a lateral meniscus. He might be a little slow to start the year, but is projected to make a full recovery.

[Hache Man]

Floaters on the Wire
This is truly the calm before the storm in the NBA. Americans aren't really playing anywhere right now, while Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker and Darko Milicic are playing so far overseas in the European championship that there's not much point to those of us in North America even checking them out. Sure, there's the occasional injury blurb or hostile and vulgar outburst against referees and their families, but this is as quiet as it gets in the NBA.

Add to it the fact that your football team either went nuts on Sunday (because you had Tony Romo, Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan, Adrian Peterson and Ronald Curry in your lineup) or you can't even bring yourself to look at your football team because you had Lee Evans, J.P. Losman, Chester Taylor, Steven Jackson and Brandon Jacobs in your lineup. The reality is that football owners have about three or four more weeks of that being the only game in town, until hoops drafts start sometime after the middle of October. Training camp opens in October and the season kicks off on Halloween night.

As for that Darko rant, I'm sure you've heard about it by now. But if you've not read the transcript yet, you can do so here. Just beware that if Darko had made these comments after an NBA game, he might have been given an Artest-like suspension and you'd probably hear about as much about it as you did a certain gambling ref a couple months ago. The latest on the Donaghy story is that his wife has reportedly filed for divorce, now that news of his girlfriend in Arizona has broken. I didn't think it was really worth a news blurb, but the pre-nup she signed will likely be voided since the girlfriend and gambling scandal should be enough for a judge to agree he single-handedly ruined the marriage, thus allowing her to take his cash. Kids - If you land a cool job, don't do anything stupid to put it in jeopardy. There's a lot of that going around right now.

The big free agents are all signed, Yi is finally officially a member of the Bucks, Kobe is still unhappy, but at least Phil has his back, and the injury report is fairly light right now. The only real drama remaining is whether or not Charlie Bell will go to Europe and where Sarunas Jasikevicius is going to land – And honestly, there's not a lot of drama there either way. I love Bell with the Bucks, but he's still Charlie Bell.

But there are always the trades from left field that might give us something new to talk about. And as I type this, the basketball gods have given us some fodder, albeit lean, as the news of a minor trade between the Sixers and Nuggets has just broken. Of course, fantasy-wise, this deal has little impact, but it is very curious if you're a Sixers fan. The Nuggets have acquired big man Steven Hunter and forward Bobby Jones for rebounder Reggie Evans and the rights to forward Ricky Sanchez. This deal makes no sense to me, as the Nuggets easily got the best player, and lopped off $8 million of cap space. Hunter was an insurance policy for injuries to Samuel Dalembert and Shavlik Randolph, both of whom are currently hurt, while Evans is nothing more than a power forward who rebounds, offering nothing at all on the offensive end. Evans could end up being a starter for the Sixers, while Hunter's value takes a big hit going to Denver. But given the injury history of Marcus Camby, Nene and Kenyon Martin, Hunter will have value at some point this season and will be a popular waiver-wire pickup when one of these guys goes down. Of course, KMart still has to come back before he can go down, but word on the street is that he's going to play this season.

That makes for a nice segue into this week's list. In addition to Hunter and Evans, here are 15 other guys who aren't likely to be taken in your fantasy draft, but are almost 100% guarantees to be waiver-wire pickups at some point this season.

Salim Stoudamire - SG – Atlanta Hawks

Owners who come out of their fantasy drafts without a surplus of 3-pointers are going to be looking at Stoudamire the first time he has one of those four 3-pointer games for the Hawks. He should do that several times this season, but will only be appealing in Roto leagues for an owner desperate for some long-distance dialing. The only problem is that he's going to be hot and cold all year, and trying to catch him on a good week will be tricky.

James Posey - G/F – Boston Celtics

Posey was signed by the Celtics to be a defensive stopper and role player when Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce need a break. I really doubt Posey will be taken in many leagues on draft night, but even without an injury to one of the Big 3, he's still going to put up a nice line one out of every four games or so. He's one of those guys that will likely end up on four or five teams in your league before the year is over.

Sasha Pavlovic - G/F – Cleveland Cavaliers

Pavlovic has still not been signed by the Cavs, but chances are he will be shortly. There's also a decent chance Pavlovic will be drafted in many leagues, but the trendy pick and upside of Daniel Gibson is going to make many people forget about Pavlovic. And given the fact he really doesn't do that much outside of scoring and hitting threes doesn't give him much value in the first place. But once he gets hot and has a couple back-to-back big games, Pavlovic is going to be scooped up in most leagues. He won't get drafted for a reason, which is something to keep in mind when the temptation strikes you while you're eating your turkey on Thanksgiving.

Kenyon Martin - PF – Denver Nuggets

Martin says he's getting healthy and will be back for the Nuggets on opening night. This would actually make for a feel-good story if it somehow worked out, but the fact of the matter is that while he might play, the odds are heavily stacked against him making a full-fledged comeback from microfracture surgery - Especially with George Karl and the Nuggets after the blowup of a couple seasons ago. There's no way I'd waste a draft pick on Martin at this point, but if he somehow has a big training camp, he's going to be a popular late-round pick. I'm guessing he might be ready for serious action by January or February and it won't take more than a big line or two to have him flying off the shelves like his name was Ronald Curry or Selvin Young.

Shane Battier - G/F – Houston Rockets

I really think Battier might be the most underrated fantasy player in the league. His lack of scoring is always a problem, but the guy literally does a little bit of everything. For the most part, I wouldn't be scared to draft him in the 13th or 14th round and he probably offers far more value than that on the whole. The problem is that his value comes more from not hurting you anywhere, and contributing in small doses across the board. And there's nothing exciting about that. But if you look at the numbers, there's no reason he shouldn't be playing in your league. Last year's numbers were: 10 points, 4 boards, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0.7 blocks and 1.9 threes while shooting nearly 45% from the floor and 78% from the line. Battier is definitely a guy who will be owned by many different teams in your league, but if you catch him at the right time, you might not ever want to let him go.

Travis Diener - PG – Indiana Pacers

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Diener is going to have a breakout season, but given the fact that he's the only true point guard on the Pacers' roster behind Jamaal Tinsley, there's a very good chance he could become a household name in fantasy leagues this season. He's currently not draftable, and a supposedly healthy Marquis Daniels should see plenty of minutes at point guard as well, but it feels like the stars are about to align and Diener is going to be forced into heavy minutes. Out of the guys I've listed so far, Diener looks like the best bet to have real fantasy value this season, but it would take an injury to Tinsley to make it happen. The good news is that a Tinsley injury is nearly as predictable as the MTV Awards show getting worse with every passing year.

Ruben Patterson - G/F – Los Angeles Clippers

Patterson may or may not get drafted in your fantasy league this year. I'm guessing that between now and mid-October the hype machine will start rolling on Patterson, who should see heavy minutes now that Elton Brand will be sidelined indefinitely with a ruptured Achilles. Tim Thomas is in the same boat and is a little safer pick in my opinion, but I could change my mind on that one once we get a look at the Clips in camp and the preseason. Patterson put up nice minutes in Milwaukee last year and the numbers followed. Consider him a nice late-round sleeper in the same vein as Shane Battier.

Rashad McCants - SG – Minnesota Timberwolves

McCants is coming off a season that saw him limited to just 37 games due to knee surgery after blossoming late in his rookie season the previous year. With all the new faces in Minnesota, it's hard to say if McCants will get enough run to make a fantasy difference this season. But he should be fully healthy and could end up being a nice source of threes and points if he gets the minutes. I know he'll have a handful of big games which will send people scampering to the wire, but I doubt he's going to be worth owning unless you're desperate for threes.

Nate Robinson - G – New York Knicks

Robinson looked like a goner for the Knicks prior to summer league, but he led the team to a 5-0 record and was named the MVP of the league. Now Dan Dickau appears to be on the outs, likely securing a spot on the roster for Robinson. Don't draft him and don't expect much if you pick him up, but be prepared for him to have three or four stretches this season where he looks like an All-Star.

J.J. Redick - SG – Orlando Magic

Redick may be the best pure shooter in the league but that doesn't mean much in fantasy land. Remember Allan Houston and Steve Alford? Houston was even scoring a ton of points at one stretch of his career, but still barely achieved value because he did nothing else. And speaking of Houston, he's going to work out for several teams on Tuesday and could join Penny Hardaway and Shaq with the Heat. Can they get any older? Ok, back to my point…Alford showed up in Dallas for a cup of coffee, but there was no argument that he could shoot. The good news for Redick is that Grant Hill is gone (Phoenix) and there's a definite hole at shooting guard, which is currently held by Hedo Turkoglu, who's better suited at small forward. If Redick has a good camp and preseason, he could end up as the team's sixth man, or even a starter, and with Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard demanding constant double-teams, this could be a breakout season. Like many of the others on this list, he's going to at least bounce from team to team in your league as owners try to find an answer to their problems behind the arc. And if everything falls into place, he could end up being the steal of the waiver wire this season.

Rodney Carney - G/F – Philadelphia 76ers

Carney looks like a probable starter for the Sixers, but gets lost in the mix with Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert, Andre Miller and Kyle Korver taking the spotlight. Carney started 35 games last year and could be in line for many more than that this season. Bobby Jones is now in Denver, which could give Carney a few more opportunities, but on the flip side, Louis Williams and Willie Green both appear to be ready to explode. Carney won't be drafted in most leagues, and for good reason. If he continues to start this season, he'll be a popular pickup on the wire, but it's hard to imagine him having any value except in the deepest of leagues.

Damien Wilkins - G/F – Seattle Supersonics

Just like last year, the year before that and the year before that, Wilkins is going to have a little value once the season gets going this year. He won't be drafted and he won't stay on the same fantasy roster for more than two weeks, but he'll make for a nice injury fill-in and will continually look like he's ready to land in the starting lineup for Seattle for good. But it just doesn't look like it will ever happen for Nique's nephew as long as he's with the Sonics, and while there will be times this season when he looks like a can't-miss pickup, he probably won't live up to the billing.

Jose Calderon - PG – Toronto Raptors

It won't take an injury to T.J. Ford to give Calderon some value, as he proved last season, but for him to be a must-own fantasy player, Ford would have to go down. The simple fact is that the two point guards are locked into a timeshare, with Ford owning the "A" unit with the ocean view and hot tub, while Calderon is in the "B" unit with a sofa bed and a partial kitchen. Calderon is likely to bounce around from team to team until he finally lands on the roster of the Ford owner after he gets an injury scare in December.

Paul Millsap - PF – Utah Jazz

I love Millsap's game and with the right team, he'd be worth a 10th-round pick this year. However, he's stuck behind guys like Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko. At the first sign of injury to any of them, Millsap will be grabbed faster than you can say "Britney is done," but he's going to be tough to own in the meantime.

Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood - F/C – Washington Wizards

It's a miracle that Thomas and Haywood are still both with the Wizards, given their tendency to fight with each other and Haywood's disdain for coach Eddie Jordan. Haywood's likely to be the starter again this year, but both players are going to get minutes and both will be tough to own this season. At some point an owner in your league is going to get desperate to land a starting center, and these guys will bounce around on the wire all season. They've never lived up to the hype and it doesn't look like there's much hope of them playing any better than normal this season, either.

Bad Awards Shows

And being the "music guy" that I am, I'd be remiss not to mention the MTV Awards last night. Man, is it just me, or were those a couple of the most painful hours of television in a long time? Maybe since last year's show? I remember being in high school and getting fired up for the show…There were always a couple great performances, relative stars and hosts, and a good time was generally had by all. Like when Krist Novoselic hit himself in the head with his bass and Axl Rose and Kurt Cobain got into it backstage. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I think it's safe to say that was my last trip to the TV for the show unless it undergoes some major changes going forward. And with the direct and non-subtle attempt to keep those with short attention spans entertained last night, I doubt it will do anything but get worse. As for my Britney take – Her body wasn't perfect, but she actually looked better than I thought she would after having a couple kids. She also looked like she would have rather been anywhere else and put about as much effort into the performance as the Michigan Wolverines have put into this season so far. Maybe she was just setting us up so that she'll look that much better in her "real comeback," whenever that may be, but the truth of the matter is that no one really cares - Except every 32-year-old white housewife who lives for the tabloids, Talk Soup and tonight's premiere episode of the TMZ television show. God help us.

[Hache Man]

Fallout Boys
The fallout from the news of Greg Oden's injury hasn't settled yet, but there are several fantasy implications as a result. Unless you live in a cave or haven't been out of your house in a week, Oden's rookie season is already over due to a knee injury that will require the dreaded micro-fracture surgery.

Oden's young and we saw Amare Stoudemire come back from the procedure, but the fact he'll have to miss a full year is going to take its toll on him. In fact, it's entirely possible that he may not be an effective player again until the 2009-10 season, as it takes many players two full years to recover from this type of injury. And the fact that Oden is young may not matter. You've all heard the jokes about the fact that he looks like a 40-year-old man and Bill Simmons has said that if you stand behind him and watch, Oden walks like a 50-year-old man. One leg is a full inch shorter than the other, he's got a shaky back, bad wrist and now a bum knee. That's a lot of injury concerns and baggage for someone so young and the Sam Bowie comparisons are flying around at a remarkable pace right now, and for good reason.

As for what this means to the Blazers, I really don't think it makes too much of an impact this season. Oden was going to be learning the ropes and there was still a decent chance they would miss the playoffs again. He was going to be a fantasy gamble that may or may not have paid off. But where the real damage is done is in Oden's future development. It may be a full two years before he's fully recovered, which means we don't know what he's going to get out of the next 24 months. And I get the sense we won't see his true rookie season until that 09-10 season.

Oden's injury also means that teams like the Celtics, Sonics, Hawks and Grizzlies dodged a bullet. In fact, thinking back to the night of the lottery and the tone of depression that set in for the Celtics and their fans after they didn't get the No.1 or 2 pick, it's hard to believe all the things they have to be thankful for this year.

They have to be thankful that Danny Ainge didn't pull off a deal to get Kevin Garnett earlier in the summer. They are thankful that Paul Pierce didn't do anything drastic over the summer and hit the talk show circuit, demanding to be traded. They also are thankful that they drafted Jeff Green and shipped him to Seattle, along with Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak, to get Ray Allen, which in turn was key in allowing them to land Garnett and then Posey. Above all, they now have to be thankful that the ping pong balls didn't grant them their wish of getting the No. 1 pick.

Had lottery night gone differently and the Celtics landed at No. 1, they would likely have taken Oden with the pick. So instead of a starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins (with James Posey as the sixth man), we'd be looking at Rondo, Delonte West, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins. How do you win the lottery by losing the lottery? Ainge could probably write a book about it.

And just think of the headlines coming out of Boston if Oden was a Celtic. Yeah, no one died this time around, but it would simply be noted as another case of disastrous luck for the Celtics, who haven't had anything good happen to them since Larry Bird left. Even if they don't win a championship in the next three years, the C's and their fans certainly can't complain about being unlucky anymore - At least not as of today.

As for the Blazers, they have had some bad luck in their history as well. I already mentioned Sam Bowie once, but you have to think we'll hear his name often over the next five years. The Blazers took Bowie with the No. 2 pick in the 1984 draft, just ahead of Michael Jordan, who went at No. 3 to the Bulls. Bowie averaged just 28 games over the next five seasons and underwent five leg surgeries in that span, while Blazers fans helplessly sat and watched Jordan turn into the greatest of all time. While the second guessing already has started about whether or not the Blazers should have taken Kevin Durant instead of Oden, it's really difficult to argue with either of the picks. In 84, they already had Clyde Drexler in the mix and Bowie was clearly the best center available and the logical pick at the time. In fact, I doubt you could find anyone on that draft day who thought the Blazers made a mistake. The same can be said about Oden, although there are rumors floating around that the team may have been more aware of some of his problems than they might have let on. In any case, Oden seemed to make sense for the Blazers, although they could have also run Durant out at the small forward position on opening night as well.

It doesn't really matter now though, as the Blazers are stuck with a remorseful Oden, even though the kid hasn't done anything wrong. He apologized repeatedly after waking up from surgery and now the Blazers and their fans will have to spend the season watching Durant blossom into the ROY. We won't really know how devastating Portland's loss is until five years from now. I get the sense that Durant will be an All-Star by then and one of the more exciting players in the league. Hopefully Oden will still be playing in the NBA, anchoring the middle for Portland and clearing the way for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to lead them to a title. But at this point, we just have to hope he's healthy and playing at some point down the line.

The news isn't all bad for the Blazers, although I'm guessing they wish they wouldn't have given Zach Randolph to the Knicks for Channing Frye and not much else. There's no point in crying about Randolph now and the locker room will probably be better off without him in the long run. As for the fantasy impact of the loss of Oden, there are several players to talk about.

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge was already on everyone's radar as the breakout candidate of the year before the draft. He was set to start at power forward and help teach Oden the ropes, but now he's likely to see as many minutes at center as he is the 4. Aldridge suffered a serious heel injury that bothered him for much of the summer, but the latest reports out of Portland are that he's easily the most dominating player they have right now and that his heel is fine. I will have his injury in the back of my mind on draft day, but it won't stop me from taking Aldridge somewhere around the sixth and seventh rounds in fantasy drafts this year.

Chances are that by the time your draft gets here, the hype machine on Aldridge could have him going in the fourth or fifth rounds of drafts, and regardless of where he goes, the pressure will be on him to have a big year. Obviously, the sooner Aldridge is taken means there's going to be more pressure for him to live up to the fantasy hype. But it appears he's on track to post rock-solid numbers in points, rebounds, blocks and percentages, while also swiping his share of steals. They say there are no sleepers any more because of the hype generated around mediocre players on the internet, but I'm thinking Aldridge is about as close as you can get. And the fact that Oden's not around should guarantee a full-blown breakout season for the big man.

Travis Outlaw

It's hard to believe that Outlaw is entering his fifth year in the league after being taken with the 23rd pick by the Blazers in the 2003 draft. He's had the word sleeper attached to his name for years now, and if he doesn't fully breakout this year, it's never going to happen. He's going to be given the starting small forward job (unless he struggles and gets beat out by Martell Webster, which I don't think is likely) and without Oden and Zach around, should become a focal point of the offense, along with Roy and Aldridge. While I think Outlaw should pay off for owners who draft him late, an NBA scout has told me that he disagrees. Some of the concerns with Outlaw are his size, shooting ability and talent. He's a great athlete but not a great talent, is too big and not a good enough shooter to play the 3 and doesn't have enough size or play tough enough inside to handle the 4. Those are all probably valid points, but I will still be surprised if Outlaw doesn't become a quality fantasy starter this season. He went in the 13th round of our mock draft, which is exactly where he belongs.

That said, if Webster does end up winning the job, he's going to be a decent sleeper candidate as well and could end up being a great source of fantasy threes. Keep an eye on that position battle in training camp.

Joel Przybilla

Przybilla was a forgotten man in Portland over the last 18 months, but it wasn't that long ago that he offered real fantasy value. He's a great offensive rebounder and had back-to-back seasons when he averaged over six points and seven boards to go along with 2-plus blocks and an incredible shooting percentage. With Oden down, it's quite possible that Przybilla will start at center on opening night and could keep the job for 82 games. The Blazers surely now wish they'd kept Jamaal Magloire, who could start for the Nets this season. His free throw percentage is dreadful, but he probably won't shoot enough of them to ruin your whole team. If you find yourself in need of blocks and boards at the end of your draft, Przybilla might be worth a shot.

Channing Frye

Frye also definitely qualifies as a sleeper this season and has reportedly looked fantastic working out with the Blazers this summer. He could start at center, but will likely back up Aldridge and Przybilla to start the season. Frye had a big year for New York in his rookie season of 2005-06, averaging nearly 12 points and six boards, while shooting a nice percentage from both the stripe and field and collecting 0.7 blocks per game. Things didn't go so well under Isiah Thomas last year, when his averages fell to 9.5 and 5.5, but things are certainly looking up for him this season. He was a last-round pick in our mock draft, but with the Oden news, should be looked at a few rounds earlier this fall. He's all upside and could end up starting at some point for the Blazers. If he was a better shot blocker, I'd be really excited about him, but as it stands, he should at least be a quality fantasy big man this season.

Raef LaFrentz and Josh McRoberts

LaFrentz appeared to be on his way out of the league, not to be heard from again, but the Oden injury gives him some hope. He's been injured for the last year, but it sounds like he'll come into camp healthy. He's not worth drafting, but if he sees minutes he could be a decent source of threes and boards. Rookie McRoberts is Oden's best friend and I'm sure Oden is ecstatic that McRoberts will be in Portland to help him get through the most difficult year of his life. I doubt McRoberts has any fantasy value this season but could emerge as a worthy pickup on the wire if Frye, Aldridge or Przybilla suffers an injury. The same is true of LaFrentz, although I'm not sure he can stay healthy enough to ever be worth picking up.

The Blazers have suffered a serious blow to the feel-good vibes that had been floating over the city, but there's still a good chance Oden will emerge as a great NBA player. We may just have to wait a few years to see it happen. In the meantime, there are plenty of fantasy players to pick from in Portland, starting with Roy and ending with Przybilla.

[Hache Man]

Fallout Boys
The fallout from the news of Greg Oden's injury hasn't settled yet, but there are several fantasy implications as a result. Unless you live in a cave or haven't been out of your house in a week, Oden's rookie season is already over due to a knee injury that will require the dreaded micro-fracture surgery.

Oden's young and we saw Amare Stoudemire come back from the procedure, but the fact he'll have to miss a full year is going to take its toll on him. In fact, it's entirely possible that he may not be an effective player again until the 2009-10 season, as it takes many players two full years to recover from this type of injury. And the fact that Oden is young may not matter. You've all heard the jokes about the fact that he looks like a 40-year-old man and Bill Simmons has said that if you stand behind him and watch, Oden walks like a 50-year-old man. One leg is a full inch shorter than the other, he's got a shaky back, bad wrist and now a bum knee. That's a lot of injury concerns and baggage for someone so young and the Sam Bowie comparisons are flying around at a remarkable pace right now, and for good reason.

As for what this means to the Blazers, I really don't think it makes too much of an impact this season. Oden was going to be learning the ropes and there was still a decent chance they would miss the playoffs again. He was going to be a fantasy gamble that may or may not have paid off. But where the real damage is done is in Oden's future development. It may be a full two years before he's fully recovered, which means we don't know what he's going to get out of the next 24 months. And I get the sense we won't see his true rookie season until that 09-10 season.

Oden's injury also means that teams like the Celtics, Sonics, Hawks and Grizzlies dodged a bullet. In fact, thinking back to the night of the lottery and the tone of depression that set in for the Celtics and their fans after they didn't get the No.1 or 2 pick, it's hard to believe all the things they have to be thankful for this year.

They have to be thankful that Danny Ainge didn't pull off a deal to get Kevin Garnett earlier in the summer. They are thankful that Paul Pierce didn't do anything drastic over the summer and hit the talk show circuit, demanding to be traded. They also are thankful that they drafted Jeff Green and shipped him to Seattle, along with Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak, to get Ray Allen, which in turn was key in allowing them to land Garnett and then Posey. Above all, they now have to be thankful that the ping pong balls didn't grant them their wish of getting the No. 1 pick.

Had lottery night gone differently and the Celtics landed at No. 1, they would likely have taken Oden with the pick. So instead of a starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins (with James Posey as the sixth man), we'd be looking at Rondo, Delonte West, Pierce, Al Jefferson and Perkins. How do you win the lottery by losing the lottery? Ainge could probably write a book about it.

And just think of the headlines coming out of Boston if Oden was a Celtic. Yeah, no one died this time around, but it would simply be noted as another case of disastrous luck for the Celtics, who haven't had anything good happen to them since Larry Bird left. Even if they don't win a championship in the next three years, the C's and their fans certainly can't complain about being unlucky anymore - At least not as of today.

As for the Blazers, they have had some bad luck in their history as well. I already mentioned Sam Bowie once, but you have to think we'll hear his name often over the next five years. The Blazers took Bowie with the No. 2 pick in the 1984 draft, just ahead of Michael Jordan, who went at No. 3 to the Bulls. Bowie averaged just 28 games over the next five seasons and underwent five leg surgeries in that span, while Blazers fans helplessly sat and watched Jordan turn into the greatest of all time. While the second guessing already has started about whether or not the Blazers should have taken Kevin Durant instead of Oden, it's really difficult to argue with either of the picks. In 84, they already had Clyde Drexler in the mix and Bowie was clearly the best center available and the logical pick at the time. In fact, I doubt you could find anyone on that draft day who thought the Blazers made a mistake. The same can be said about Oden, although there are rumors floating around that the team may have been more aware of some of his problems than they might have let on. In any case, Oden seemed to make sense for the Blazers, although they could have also run Durant out at the small forward position on opening night as well.

It doesn't really matter now though, as the Blazers are stuck with a remorseful Oden, even though the kid hasn't done anything wrong. He apologized repeatedly after waking up from surgery and now the Blazers and their fans will have to spend the season watching Durant blossom into the ROY. We won't really know how devastating Portland's loss is until five years from now. I get the sense that Durant will be an All-Star by then and one of the more exciting players in the league. Hopefully Oden will still be playing in the NBA, anchoring the middle for Portland and clearing the way for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to lead them to a title. But at this point, we just have to hope he's healthy and playing at some point down the line.

The news isn't all bad for the Blazers, although I'm guessing they wish they wouldn't have given Zach Randolph to the Knicks for Channing Frye and not much else. There's no point in crying about Randolph now and the locker room will probably be better off without him in the long run. As for the fantasy impact of the loss of Oden, there are several players to talk about.

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge was already on everyone's radar as the breakout candidate of the year before the draft. He was set to start at power forward and help teach Oden the ropes, but now he's likely to see as many minutes at center as he is the 4. Aldridge suffered a serious heel injury that bothered him for much of the summer, but the latest reports out of Portland are that he's easily the most dominating player they have right now and that his heel is fine. I will have his injury in the back of my mind on draft day, but it won't stop me from taking Aldridge somewhere around the sixth and seventh rounds in fantasy drafts this year.

Chances are that by the time your draft gets here, the hype machine on Aldridge could have him going in the fourth or fifth rounds of drafts, and regardless of where he goes, the pressure will be on him to have a big year. Obviously, the sooner Aldridge is taken means there's going to be more pressure for him to live up to the fantasy hype. But it appears he's on track to post rock-solid numbers in points, rebounds, blocks and percentages, while also swiping his share of steals. They say there are no sleepers any more because of the hype generated around mediocre players on the internet, but I'm thinking Aldridge is about as close as you can get. And the fact that Oden's not around should guarantee a full-blown breakout season for the big man.

Travis Outlaw

It's hard to believe that Outlaw is entering his fifth year in the league after being taken with the 23rd pick by the Blazers in the 2003 draft. He's had the word sleeper attached to his name for years now, and if he doesn't fully breakout this year, it's never going to happen. He's going to be given the starting small forward job (unless he struggles and gets beat out by Martell Webster, which I don't think is likely) and without Oden and Zach around, should become a focal point of the offense, along with Roy and Aldridge. While I think Outlaw should pay off for owners who draft him late, an NBA scout has told me that he disagrees. Some of the concerns with Outlaw are his size, shooting ability and talent. He's a great athlete but not a great talent, is too big and not a good enough shooter to play the 3 and doesn't have enough size or play tough enough inside to handle the 4. Those are all probably valid points, but I will still be surprised if Outlaw doesn't become a quality fantasy starter this season. He went in the 13th round of our mock draft, which is exactly where he belongs.

That said, if Webster does end up winning the job, he's going to be a decent sleeper candidate as well and could end up being a great source of fantasy threes. Keep an eye on that position battle in training camp.

Joel Przybilla

Przybilla was a forgotten man in Portland over the last 18 months, but it wasn't that long ago that he offered real fantasy value. He's a great offensive rebounder and had back-to-back seasons when he averaged over six points and seven boards to go along with 2-plus blocks and an incredible shooting percentage. With Oden down, it's quite possible that Przybilla will start at center on opening night and could keep the job for 82 games. The Blazers surely now wish they'd kept Jamaal Magloire, who could start for the Nets this season. His free throw percentage is dreadful, but he probably won't shoot enough of them to ruin your whole team. If you find yourself in need of blocks and boards at the end of your draft, Przybilla might be worth a shot.

Channing Frye

Frye also definitely qualifies as a sleeper this season and has reportedly looked fantastic working out with the Blazers this summer. He could start at center, but will likely back up Aldridge and Przybilla to start the season. Frye had a big year for New York in his rookie season of 2005-06, averaging nearly 12 points and six boards, while shooting a nice percentage from both the stripe and field and collecting 0.7 blocks per game. Things didn't go so well under Isiah Thomas last year, when his averages fell to 9.5 and 5.5, but things are certainly looking up for him this season. He was a last-round pick in our mock draft, but with the Oden news, should be looked at a few rounds earlier this fall. He's all upside and could end up starting at some point for the Blazers. If he was a better shot blocker, I'd be really excited about him, but as it stands, he should at least be a quality fantasy big man this season.

Raef LaFrentz and Josh McRoberts

LaFrentz appeared to be on his way out of the league, not to be heard from again, but the Oden injury gives him some hope. He's been injured for the last year, but it sounds like he'll come into camp healthy. He's not worth drafting, but if he sees minutes he could be a decent source of threes and boards. Rookie McRoberts is Oden's best friend and I'm sure Oden is ecstatic that McRoberts will be in Portland to help him get through the most difficult year of his life. I doubt McRoberts has any fantasy value this season but could emerge as a worthy pickup on the wire if Frye, Aldridge or Przybilla suffers an injury. The same is true of LaFrentz, although I'm not sure he can stay healthy enough to ever be worth picking up.

The Blazers have suffered a serious blow to the feel-good vibes that had been floating over the city, but there's still a good chance Oden will emerge as a great NBA player. We may just have to wait a few years to see it happen. In the meantime, there are plenty of fantasy players to pick from in Portland, starting with Roy and ending with Przybilla.

[Hache Man]

Are Yao Mocking Me?
OK folks. Here are the entire results of a draft I participated in over the last week. Am I proud of my team? Maybe. Am I cool with the results? Possibly. Will my team win this league (if it was actually played out?) I'm not sure. But here is who was taken and when by some fantasy "insiders" last Wednesday in the MockDraftCentral.com expert draft.

I must admit, I am so ready for the season to start it's not even funny. The summer news blurbs of worthless signings (Michael Ruffin, Scot Pollard), drunk owners (Jerry Buss), rogue refs (Tim Donaghy), depressing surgeries (Greg Oden, Elton Brand) and sexual harassment trials (Isiah Thomas) are wearing on my nerves. I'm ready to update and analyze game action and get to some real drafts. We're only two months away from the start of the season and about a week away from actual news breaking once training camps get going in October. I have another one of these drafts coming up on Oct. 10, and I'll post the results of that one in this same column around that time.

This league was set up to be standard eight categories with no turnovers – Just the way it should be.

Participants and Draft Order:

1. Dennis Matecun – MockDraftCentral.com
2. Scott Sargent – SportsRumblings.com
3. David Klyce – HoopsKlyce.com
4. Dennis Velasco – DroppingDimes.com
5. Jorge Menocal – FantasyInsider.com
6. Geoff Stein – MockDraftCentral.com
7. Matt Buser – Yahoo.com
8. Ken Slight – BasketballMonster.com
9. Steve Alexander – Rotoworld.com
10. Jim Ganschow – FantasyBasketballCafe.com
11. Tommy Beer – HoopsWorld.com
12. B.J. VanderWoude – GameTimeDecisions.net

Round 1

1. Matecun – Kevin Garnett F/C – Celtics
2. Sargent – Kobe Bryant – G - Lakers
3. Klyce – Dirk Nowitzki – F - Mavericks
4. Velasco – Shawn Marion – F - Suns
5. Menocal – LeBron James – F - Cavaliers
6. Stein – Gilbert Arenas – G - Wizards
7. Buser – Steve Nash – G - Suns
8. Slight – Amare Stoudemire – F/C - Suns
9. Alexander – Yao Ming – C - Rockets
10. Ganschow – Dwyane Wade – G - Heat
11. Beer – Jason Kidd – G - Nets
12. VanderWoude – Chris Paul – G - Hornets

With the ninth pick my cheat sheet said to take Yao and that's what I did. Yes - I'm concerned about injuries this season, along with his ability to run in Rick Adelman's up-tempo offense, but in my opinion he was the best player on the board here. I've made it quite clear that I don't trust Dwyane Wade at all this season and I'm convinced he's going to miss more time than the two weeks the Heat keep claiming that he'll be shelved. I may adjust my rankings to move Tim Duncan in front of Yao, as Duncan seems to be a more reliable player. LeBron at No. 5 looks outstanding to me and I'm leaning toward ranking him as the No. 1 fantasy player this season with each day that passes. Obviously, Matecum isn't worried about Kevin Garnett's role with Boston and Kobe Bryant continues to be a Top 3 pick in every format known to man.

Round 2

1. VanderWoude – Chris Bosh - F/C - Raptors
2. Beer – Tim Duncan – F/C - Spurs
3. Ganschow – Pau Gasol – F/C - Grizzlies
4. Alexander – Josh Smith – G/F - Hawks
5. Slight – Rashard Lewis – F - Magic
6. Buser – Caron Butler – G/F - Wizards
7. Stein – Allen Iverson – G - Nuggets
8. Menocal – Baron Davis – G - Warriors
9. Velasco – Andre Iguodala – G/F - Sixers
10. Klyce – Vince Carter – G/F - Nets
11. Sargent – Dwight Howard – F/C - Magic
12. Matecun – Paul Pierce – G/F - Celtics

I don't see any shockers in Round 2, but Chris Bosh's foot injury scares me. I would have taken Tim Duncan over Bosh, and possibly Pau Gasol as well. I landed Josh Smith, as usual, and have no problem with getting him in the second round. I like Baron Davis better as a third-round pick, but the rest of this round looks good to me. Andre Iguodala at No. 17 overall should be somewhat of a steal for Velasco. I've said it before but it bears repeating – If you take Dwight Howard early in a free throw percentage or turnover league, you're basically punting the category. Therefore, you'll generally see Howard ranked much lower in RotoWorld rankings than you will elsewhere. We like to avoid category killers when possible.

Round 3

1. Matecun – Deron Williams – G - Jazz
2. Sargent – Marcus Camby – C - Nuggets
3. Klyce – Carmelo Anthony – F - Nuggets
4. Velasco – Gerald Wallace – F - Bobcats
5. Menocal – Andrew Bogut – F/C - Bucks
6. Stein – Carlos Boozer – F - Jazz
7. Buser – Ray Allen – G - Celtics
8. Slight – Chauncey Billups – G - Pistons
9. Alexander – Tracy McGrady – G/F - Rockets
10. Ganschow – Michael Redd – G - Bucks
11. Beer – Joe Johnson – G - Hawks
12. VanderWoude – Tyson Chandler – C - Hornets

In my opinion, Deron Williams, Marcus Camby and Carmelo Anthony should be second-round fantasy picks this season. Meanwhile, Menocal shocked the draft room by taking Andrew Bogut with the fifth pick of the third round. Maybe he knows something I don't, but I've got Bogut ranked at No. 79 overall, at least as of today. Most of the rest of Round 3 looks pretty good, although I thought Tyson Chandler was a bit of stretch here. How do I feel after three rounds? Yao, Josh Smith and TMac. It could be worse and I'm counting on the Houston duo to produce and for Smith to be able to stand out despite the return of Joe Johnson.

Round 4

1. VanderWoude – Brandon Roy – G - Blazers
2. Beer – Jermaine O'Neal – F/C - Pacers
3. Ganschow – Josh Howard – F - Mavericks
4. Alexander – Kirk Hinrich – G - Bulls
5. Slight – Al Jefferson – F/C - Wolves
6. Buser – Leandro Barbosa – G - Suns
7. Stein – Mehmet Okur – F/C - Jazz
8. Menocal – Ben Gordon – G - Bulls
9. Velasco – Antawn Jamison – F - Wizards
10. Klyce – Emeka Okafor – F/C - Bobcats
11. Sargent – Raymond Felton – G - Bobcats
12. Matecun – David West – F - Hornets

Maybe a little early for Brandon Roy here, but chances are he's going to be selected in the fourth round of drafts this year, so B.J. made sure he got his man. Jefferson was taken in the second round of the last mock I participated in, but looks much better as a fourth-round pick. It's really hard to say whether or not Barbosa will be able to duplicate last season's performance, but Buser is willing to find out. Round 4 actually went just about as I expected it to. I think David West is a steal here.

Round 5

1. Matecun – Ricky Davis – G/F - Wolves
2. Sargent – Kevin Martin – G - Kings
3. Klyce – Manu Ginobili – G - Spurs
4. Velasco – Kevin Durant – G/F - Sonics
5. Menocal – Ron Artest – F - Kings
6. Stein – Rasheed Wallace – F/C - Pistons
7. Buser – Lamar Odom – F - Lakers
8. Slight – Mike Miller – G/F - Grizzlies
9. Alexander – Luol Deng – F - Bulls
10. Ganschow – Jason Terry – G - Mavericks
11. Beer – Tony Parker – G - Spurs
12. VanderWoude – Ben Wallace – C - Bulls

Ricky Davis is a very interesting fantasy prospect right now. I wrote that he could have second-round value this season if he stays in Minnesota and starts for them. He could easily be traded, or Randy Wittman could decide to go with young guys and bring Davis off the bench. If he starts and gets minutes, he's going to be a monster. I love him in the fifth round, as of today. The rest of the round looks about like it should, although I think Luol Deng is more worthy of a second- or third-round pick. I was ecstatic to get him this late and he has "value pick" written all over him. According to the folks as BasketballMonster.com, he had second-round value last season. He doesn't miss games and seems to be getting better every day. I may drop him to the third round in my rankings, but he's still a great pick in either Round 3 or 4. And if you want Kevin Durant this year, plan on taking him in the fourth round, as I haven't seen him go later than the early fifth yet.

Round 6

1. VanderWoude – Andre Miller – G - Sixers
2. Beer – Mo Williams – G - Bucks
3. Ganschow – Samuel Dalembert – C - Sixers
4. Alexander – Rajon Rondo – G - Celtics
5. Slight – Randy Foye – G - Wolves
6. Buser – LaMarcus Aldridge – F/C - Blazers
7. Stein – Andrei Kirilenko – F - Jazz
8. Menocal – Mike Bibby – G - Kings
9. Velasco – Jason Richardson – G/F - Bobcats
10. Klyce – Andrea Bargnani – F/C - Raptors
11. Sargent – Danny Granger – F - Pacers
12. Matecun - Andris Biedrins – F/C - Raptors

Can you say point guard run? Andre Miller, Mo Williams, Rajon Rondo and Mike Bibby all went in this round, while centers were also popular. Samuel Dalembert, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani and Andris Biedrins should all qualify there this season. I loved getting Rondo here, although there are no guarantees. I was also fond of the LaMarcus Aldridge (with no Oden) and Danny Granger picks, while I think it might have been a couple rounds early for Randy Foye. With Sebastian Telfair in Minny, Foye may not have as bright of an outlook as he had prior to the trade that sent Kevin Garnett to the Celtics.

Round 7

1. Matecun – Stephon Marbury – G - Knicks
2. Sargent – T.J. Ford – G - Bucks
3. Klyce – Monta Ellis – G - Warriors
4. Velasco – Jameer Nelson – G - Magic
5. Menocal – Kyle Korver – G/F - Sixers
6. Stein – Al Harrington – F/C - Warriors
7. Buser – Corey Maggette – G/F - Clippers
8. Slight – Stephen Jackson – G/F - Warriors
9. Alexander – Richard Jefferson – F - Nets
10. Ganschow – Josh Childress – G/F - Hawks
11. Beer – Zach Randolph – F - Knicks
12. VanderWoude – Tayshaun Prince – G/F - Pistons

Monta Ellis in the seventh looks like a steal to me. He was taken with the 75th pick and I have him currently ranked at No. 63 – about a round earlier. Three more point guards were taken early here, as well as guys like Al Harrington, Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson and Zach Randolph. I like all of these guys as seventh-rounders and I ended up with Richard Jefferson. He's not my favorite, but I'd much rather have him than Josh Childress this early. If Jefferson is healthy, he'll easily attain seventh-round value. Kyle Korver is a bit one-dimensional for Round 7, as I see him as more of a ninth-round pick. Maybe Menocal badly needed threes.

Round 8

1. VanderWoude – Andres Nocioni – F - Bulls
2. Beer – Brad Miller – C - Kings
3. Ganschow – Peja Stojakovic – F - Hornets
4. Alexander – Nene – F/C - Nuggets
5. Slight – Rudy Gay – G/F - Grizzlies
6. Buser – Richard Hamilton – G/F - Pistons
7. Stein – Tyrus Thomas – F - Bulls
8. Menocal – Zydrunas Ilgauskas – C - Cavaliers
9. Velasco – Mike Conley – G - Grizzlies
10. Klyce – Jarrett Jack – G - Blazers
11. Sargent – Chris Kaman – C - Clippers
12. Matecun – Eddy Curry – C - Knicks

Nene was a possible steal in Round 8, while Rudy Gay, Richard Hamilton, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jarrett Jack and Chris Kaman all look like safe calls. There was also some gambling going on during this round, as Andres Nocioni (injuries) Brad Miller (injuries), Peja Stojakovic (injuries), Tyrus Thomas (position battles) and Mike Conley (position battles) all have their issues. These owners could be richly rewarded, or be sitting with a bust with their eighth picks. As for Eddy Curry, he generated a lot of chatter since Buser has actually named a negative fantasy category after the Knicks' center (Eddy Curry Line). Curry is one of those guys you hope someone else takes so you don't have to. Turnovers don't count in this league, but he'll still kill you from the line and doesn't get enough boards or blocks as a center.

Round 9

1. Matecun – Boris Diaw – F/C - Suns
2. Sargent – Al Thornton – F - Clippers
3. Klyce – Paul Millsap – F - Jazz
4. Velasco – Shaquille O'Neal – C - Heat
5. Menocal – Marco Belinelli – G - Warriors
6. Stein – Raja Bell – G/F - Suns
7. Buser – Darko Milicic – F/C - Grizzlies
8. Slight – Anthony Parker – G/F - Raptors
9. Alexander – Morris Peterson – G/F - Hornets
10. Ganschow – Shane Battier – G/F - Rockets
11. Beer – Chucky Atkins – G - Nuggets
12. VanderWoude – Jamal Crawford – G - Knicks

We'll call Round 9 the "upside round." Boris Diaw, Al Thornton, Paul Millsap, Marco Belinelli, Darko Milicic, Anthony Parker, Morris Peterson and Chucky Atkins should all be improved this season over last. I have issues with Thornton, Millsap and Belinelli due to the competition for minutes with their teams, but they could end up holding their value. I just think that they look much better as 10th or 11th rounders as opposed to ninth-round picks. Velasco sucked it up given his need for a center and took Shaquille O'Neal here, but I would have avoided him at all costs. The free throw and injury problems are just too much for me to stomach. Raja Bell is coming off knee surgery, but looks like a solid pick here, while I love the Mo Pete call as the starting shooting guard in New Orleans. Especially if Peja doesn't return to form due to his back problem. Chucky Atkins is penciled in as the starting point guard in Denver, and I took him in the 10th round in a different mock draft.

Round 10

1. VanderWoude – Jeff Green – F - Sonics
2. Beer – Nenad Krstic – F/C - Nets
3. Ganschow – Luke Walton – F - Lakers
4. Alexander – Al Horford – F/C - Hawks
5. Slight – David Lee – F - Knicks
6. Buser – Troy Murphy – F/C – Pacers
7. Stein - Acie Law – G - Hawks
8. Menocal – Yi Jianlian – F/C - Bucks
9. Velasco – Nick Collison – F/C - Sonics
10. Klyce – Andrew Bynum – C - Lakers
11. Sargent – Travis Outlaw – F - Blazers
12. Matecun - Channing Frye – F/C - Blazers

I personally would have taken Al Horford in front of Al Thornton. Thornton has a chance to succeed with Elton Brand out with a ruptured Achilles in L.A., but Horford looked great this summer and should see quality minutes at forward and center for the Hawks. In fact, I'm guessing he makes a serious run at ROY, although Durant should win it easily. Nenad Krstic is a bit shaky coming off ACL surgery, David Lee is going to be stuck behind Zach Randolph and Nick Collison will have to battle with Robert Swift and Chris Wilcox for minutes. Meanwhile, Troy Murphy could be a 10th-round steal for the Pacers, Acie Law could be a starting point guard, Yi Jianlian has been guaranteed minutes in Milwaukee and Channing Frye should be a starter with the loss of Greg Oden in Portland, making him a serious sleeper candidate. I'm fine with the Andrew Bynum pick here, as he's going to get his share of starts for Phil Jackson this season.

Round 11

1. Matecun – Drew Gooden – F - Cavaliers
2. Sargent – Delonte West – G - Sonics
3. Klyce – Charlie Villanueva – F - Bucks
4. Velasco – Jamaal Tinsley – G - Pacers
5. Menocal – Marvin Williams – F - Hawks
6. Stein – Brevin Knight – G - Clippers
7. Buser – Walter Herrmann – F - Bobcats
8. Slight – Devin Harris – G - Mavericks
9. Alexander – Steve Francis – G - Rockets
10. Ganschow – Ryan Gomes – F - Wolves
11. Beer – Grant Hill – G/F - Suns
12. VanderWoude – Larry Hughes – G - Cavaliers

Drew Gooden is a last-round pick as far as I'm concerned, Charlie Villanueva has some injury issues as well as a timeshare with Yi, Jamaal Tinsley is Jamaal Tinsley and Ryan Gomes' role is a big question mark in Minnesota. I like the rest of the Round 11 picks, as Delonte West, Marvin Williams, Brevin Knight, Devin Harris and Larry Hughes are all breakout candidates who could end up being steals. The 11th may have been a round or two early for Walter Herrmann, but it's hard to argue with what he did in the final quarter of last season. As for my Steve Francis pick, I've gotten myself completely confused. In the two mocks I've done so far, he's gone in the 11th and 12th round, but for some reason, I see him as having more value than that this season. In fact, I think he has eighth-round value this season. But since everyone else seems to be undervaluing him, I think I'm going to drop him in my rankings (which will be available in the Draft Guide) down to the 10th round. But with the trouble Rafer Alston is in and the struggles of Mike James last season, it just seems like Francis is going to have a rebirth in Houston this year. We'll see.

Round 12

1. VanderWoude – Jamaal Magloire – F/C - Nets
2. Beer – Tim Thomas – F - Clippers
3. Ganschow – Charlie Bell – G/F - Bucks
4. Alexander – Derek Fisher – G - Lakers
5. Slight – Cuttino Mobley – G - Clippers
6. Buser – Elton Brand – F - Clippers
7. Stein – Jose Calderon – G - Raptors
8. Menocal – Sam Cassell – G - Clippers
9. Velasco – J.R. Smith – G - Nuggets
10. Klyce – Hakim Warrick – F - Grizzlies
11. Sargent – Chris Wilcox – F/C - Sonics
12. Matecun - Hedo Turkoglu – G/F - Magic

I thought Tim Thomas, Charlie Bell, Derek Fisher, Cuttino Mobley, Jose Calderon, Sam Cassell, Hakim Warrick, Chris Wilcox and Hedo Turkoglu were all strong picks here. Jamaal Magloire could have been had later, Elton Brand is the proverbial crapshoot and J.R. Smith will do little else outside of hitting threes and staying in George Karl's doghouse while coming off the bench in Denver. I needed a point guard and Fisher should be a mainstay in the Lakers' starting lineup. I think he's a serious sleeper this season. Calderon would be a great fantasy player if it wasn't for T.J. Ford in Toronto, but even in a timeshare he's worth a pick this late.

Round 13

1. Matecun – Trevor Ariza – G/F - Magic
2. Sargent – Jason Maxiell – F/C - Pistons
3. Klyce – Mike Dunleavy – G/F - Pacers
4. Velasco – Sean Williams – F/C - Nets
5. Menocal – Erick Dampier – C - Mavericks
6. Stein – Antonio McDyess – F - Pistons
7. Buser – Luis Scola – F - Rockets
8. Slight – Sean May – F - Bobcats
9. Alexander – Quentin Richardson – G/F - Knicks
10. Ganschow – Earl Watson – G - Sonics
11. Beer – Wally Szczerbiak – G/F - Sonics
12. VanderWoude – Luke Ridnour – G - Sonics

Round 13 is when the serious gambling starts. Buser pimped me out of Luis Scola, who I got in the last mock I was in, while there were some wasted picks here. Yeah, I said it. Sean Williams isn't ready to play in the NBA, Erick Dampier is going to miss significant time after shoulder surgery and Sean May will be lucky to see 20 minutes per game with Charlotte, if he's even healthy. If we were playing this league out, I'd guess that these would be the first three guys cut. It's hard to argue with the upside of Trevor Ariza, Jason Maxiell and Scola, while Mike Dunleavy, Antonio McDyess, Quentin Richardson and Wally Szczerbiak should make for excellent value picks this late. As for Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour, we've all seen what happened last year and there's no indication that they'll hurt each other any less this season. Richardson is reportedly as healthy as ever and appears to be locked into a starting job with the Knicks. He will be a great source of threes, points and rebounds if healthy, and I was excited to get him this late.

Round 14

1. VanderWoude – Joakim Noah – F - Bulls
2. Beer – Daniel Gibson – G - Cavaliers
3. Ganschow – Robert Swift – C - Sonics
4. Alexander – Mark Blount – C - Wolves
5. Slight – Kyle Lowry – G - Grizzlies
6. Buser – Luther Head – G - Rockets
7. Stein – Brandan Wright – F - Warriors
8. Menocal – Alonzo Mourning – C - Heat
9. Velasco – Bobby Simmons – G/F - Bucks
10. Klyce – Shelden Williams – F - Hawks
11. Sargent – Louis Williams – G - Sixers
12. Matecun – Mike James – G - Rockets

Round 14 is the land of upside, with young guys being the flavor of the month. Of course, Mark Blount, Alonzo Mourning, Shelden Williams and Mike James bucked the trend, but each player should hold some value this season. Blount wasn't even taken in the last mock I did, but he's going to start at center for Minnesota and had eighth-round value last year. Without KG around, I'm expecting him to be one of the steals of your draft this year, even though I'm not the biggest Blount fan around. And personally, I'd rather take a sure thing like Blount than an unproven rookie guaranteed of nothing in Golden State, like Brandan Wright.

As for guys passed over in the draft, I was a little surprised to see Dorell Wright (Heat), Jason Kapono (Raptors), Rafer Alston (Rockets), Morris Almond (Jazz), Smush Parker (Heat), Joe Smith (Bulls), Bonzi Wells (Rockets) and Gerald Green (Timberwolves) all ignored by us. I really wanted to go with Green with my last pick, but needed a center, and Blount just looked too good to pass up with a final pick.

Music

OK…I have been writing in this forum now for about six years. Some of you have been there from the beginning, while others are just checking me out for the first time. The old timers know that I like music, and while you probably toss many of my recommendations aside, (occasionally picking up on a needle in the haystack), many of you have stated your love for my boys, Band of Horses. Out of all the bands I've written about in the last six years, Band of Horses has easily gotten the biggest response in my inbox. In case you've never heard of them, they're a "little" band out of Seattle, via South Carolina and Georgia, that happened to hit it somewhat "big" last year with their release "Everything All The Time." If you're a metal fan, or need straightforward rock and roll to enjoy music, they may not be for you. But if you've ever considered yourself a fan of "alternative music" and used to watch 120 Minutes on MTV when you were in college, this is your new band.

Their new record, Cease to Begin (available on Oct. 9 via SubPop records and the band's website) is just as good as the first one, if not better. If I was headed to a desert island tomorrow and could take just two records, both BOH discs would be in my suitcase. It may take you a minute to adjust to Ben Bridwell's high-pitched voice, but the songs are amazing, the music is tight and the live show is always on point. I am a Sebadoh, R.E.M., Husker Du, Led Zeppelin guy at heart, but Band of Horses has dominated my listening habits for the past year. If you check out the new record in a couple weeks and aren't moved by the first few bars of opener "Is There a Ghost?," as well as the rest of the disc, just let me know. And then I'll get you some help.

[Hache Man]

NBA Draft Guide Preview
The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is now available (click on the link to order), so this seemed like a good time to do some fantasy hoops housecleaning in regards to this site.

As for the Guide, it will include everything you need to have a successful draft, including a pair of Top 200 lists and 'Tiers of Heaven,' which has become an extremely popular drafting technique here at Rotoworld. Over 350 players are profiled, with projected stats, and there are plenty of columns to keep you busy while you should be working on your TPS reports at work.

Columns include a complete mock draft (168 picks), rookie report, sleepers, busts, breakout players and 'Burning Questions,' which compiles answers to questions posed to beat writers from around the league. There are also many other columns included in the package, including a hilarious humor column from the guys at KFBA.net.

The ever popular Team Weekly Schedule Grid is back and bigger than ever, with new graphics and the ability to highlight weeks you're interested in looking at. If you want to win your league, you have to know who has the favorable weekly schedules going into the season. As for the ever popular five-game weeks, Milwaukee is the lone club with a five-game week, although the Mavericks somehow swindled a three-game week for the All-Star Break, when everyone else is playing just once or twice. I'll also have a full column breaking down each team's schedule, as I have done in the past, which will be posted in the guide on Tuesday.

In addition to the Draft Guide, free content and up to-the-minute news, there's another important tool for you to use at Rotoworld. The Rotoworld Basketball Forums are free and contain excellent content posted by dedicated users. I sometimes find myself getting in-game injury updates from guys manning the late-night boards, who are watching a game I may not be tuned into. They have even compiled their own NBA Fantasy Rankings by taking votes from regulars on the boards (they're currently somewhere around pick No. 124). The Rankings list is a nice tool to use in preparation for your draft, topics on the boards are relative and timely, and the forums are a great way to meet other hoops addicts and share information. Enough of the sales pitch.

Amare Stoudemire will have arthroscopic knee surgery this week, but the Suns are saying he will miss just 2-3 weeks. While this isn't a major concern, I have been predicting more knee surgery for Amare all summer. And I'm not convinced this will be the last knee procedure for him. He was rumored in some bizarre trade talks over the summer, and I think they're directly related to the fact that his knees are going to need more work down the line. I get the feeling he's good to go this season (which results in him being the No. 1 fantasy center – for now), but there is certainly risk involved with taking him with a first-round pick this year.

Here's a sneak preview of the Tiers included in the Draft Guide.

Point Guard Tiers

Position scarcity is always an issue with point guards…There are only 30 starters and you need to have at least of three or four of them to cover your bases. The separation between the reliable point guards and the shaky ones happens after Tier 4, so make sure you end up with at least two guys out of the Top 4 tiers if you can.

The good news is that position battles in places like Atlanta, Portland, Memphis and Los Angeles (Clips) could yield some nice waiver-wire scores at some point during the season, but it's safe to say that you need at least two of the top point guards on your roster if you're going to win your league.

Tier 1: Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd

Arenas is coming off knee surgery but swears he's ready to go and win the league MVP. He's also playing for a new contract, so keep that in mind. We are not opposed to the idea of taking Arenas with the No. 1 overall pick, as the threes help offset the field goal percentage and turnovers. Nash and Kidd are about as reliable as they come, and will not be available once you get into the first few picks of the second round of your draft. But for our money, Arenas is the No. 1 point guard in fantasy hoops this season.

Tier 2: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis

Paul and Williams are up and coming, while Billups is one of the most consistent point guards in recent memory. Davis will have your team lurking around the top of the standings until he gets hurt. As sure as the sun will set, Baron will miss time with some sort of leg problem. And injuries are also a concern with the frail Paul, or he'd likely be in Tier 1.

Tier 3: Kirk Hinrich, Raymond Felton, Tony Parker, T.J. Ford, Andre Miller, Mo Williams

These guys are all pretty steady and should be reliable first or second point guards for your team. This is the last tier of so-called "sure bets" for point guards. Ford has an injury history, but he puts up solid numbers in most categories. Felton is basically the only point guard in Charlotte and should bump up to the next tier at some point this season if he continues to develop. Parker and Miller may be the two most boring PGs in the league, but they're also two of the most consistent. Williams is coming off a nice season and a huge new contract with the Bucks.

Tier 4: Mike Bibby, Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Stephon Marbury

Here's where things begin to get interesting, as there aren't any sure things left on the board. Bibby is still a strong candidate to get traded and playing anywhere else probably helps restore his value to where it once was. If he stays in Sacramento, it's impossible to predict how he'll fare. Rondo is living a dream as he prepares to set up the likes of KG, PP and Ray-Ray in Boston, but could also fold under the pressure this season. Nelson is grieving over the loss of his father this summer, while Marbury, who always seemed to be talking to the media, is coming off the strangest summer of his career. If any of these guys exceeds expectations this season, and they all appear to have a decent chance of doing so, they're going to probably be a steal in your draft.

Tier 5: Steve Francis, Chucky Atkins, Mike Conley, Acie Law, Jarrett Jack, Derek Fisher

I may be the only one who believes it, but I think this is the season we see the return of Francis and the emergence of Atkins. If nothing changes between now and opening night, they both appear to be in line to start for their teams, Houston and Denver, respectively. Conley, Law and Jack are all involved in battles for a starting job, but are the favorites to come out on top, while Fisher has the Lakers job all but locked up. Fisher always seems to have such high hopes prior to the season, but never lives up to the hype. Maybe this year will be different.

Tier 6: Devin Harris, Larry Hughes, Jamaal Tinsley, Luke Ridnour, Brevin Knight, Sam Cassell

The Mavs signed Harris to a big extension and expect him to earn his money this year. The perennial breakout candidate is on the list again, but we're not ready to declare him a star just yet. He needs to get his assists up and turnovers down this season, and the Mavs think he'll do it. Hughes may not be a point guard for very long if the Cavs are able to finally land Mike Bibby. If he is a point guard this season, Hughes will hopefully build on last year's experience and do a better job. Tinsley always seems to be hurt and has become a popular target by management and fans of the Pacers as to what's wrong with the organization. Ridnour will still be hassled by Earl Watson and newcomer Delonte West this season, but is probably still the starter in Seattle, while Knight and Cassell will split duty for the Clippers. The only question is, outside of Corey Maggette, who is going to get them assists?

Tier 7: Steve Blake, Smush Parker, Earl Watson, Rafer Alston, Jose Calderon, Tyronn Lue

Blake is a super-sleeper with a chance at unseating starter Jarrett Jack, Parker should win the starting job in Miami after failing miserably in L.A. and Watson will split time with Luke Ridnour in Seattle. Alston was in trouble with the law this summer and given the point-guard logjam in Houston, could really struggle to produce this year. But if he gets traded, look out. Calderon's stuck behind T.J. Ford but will still offer value, while Lue, who can't seem to stay healthy, will have some value as a backup combo-guard for the Hawks.

Tier 8: Troy Hudson, Chris Duhon, Travis Diener, Jason Williams, Willie Green, Earl Boykins, Speedy Claxton, Nate Robinson, Sebastian Telfair, Kyle Lowry

Consider Tier 8 the "sleeper tier." All of these guys are probably worth drafting in deep leagues, but many questions remain. Hudson, Williams and Claxton are coming off injuries, but could be very effective if healthy. Don't expect Williams to finish the year as a member of the Heat. Duhon and Diener should be reliable backups who could be forced into heavy minutes with an injury to Kirk Hinrich or Jamaal Tinsley, while Green and Lowry are breakout candidates if they get enough minutes. Boykins remains unsigned but always offers some value, while Telfair could finally get it going in Minnesota. If he is named the opening night starter, you can bump him up a tier or two.

Tier 9: Jason Hart, Damon Stoudamire, Jannero Pargo, Antonio Daniels, Carlos Arroyo, Jeff McInnis, Mardy Collins, Eric Snow

Hart, Pargo, Arroyo and McInnis are in decent situations with their teams and could emerge at some point during the season, but we'd avoid the others in this tier unless you're in a very deep league. The chances of Snow ever being worth owning again are slim to none.

[Hache Man]

Training Camp Tidbits
Have you bought your Rotoworld Draft Guide yet? If not, what are you waiting for? Back up and click on the link. For me to say that it's updated continuously is an understatement, as that's basically all I've been doing ever since it launched on Monday. Every time a significant injury takes place or a team names a rising star as a probable sixth man, changes are made to the guide. Updates are made to the player's outlook and projections for the year, as well as the cheat sheets and team reports. It's a thankless job, but our draft guides are living, breathing entities, so to speak. Fifteen bucks could start an argument with your wife (or husband), but if you break it down over the season, it should be a good investment. Of course, I'm a little biased, but it's a huge package that I'm proud of.

And if you missed Monday's column that featured the Point Guard Tiers as they appear in the guide, here's a link to that.

The Big One

Speaking of me, I'm participating in what might become known as the granddaddy of all fantasy hoops leagues. The guys over at Sportsline have put together a league of 30 owners from the industry. There are 15 SL guys, as well as 15 other industry guys. All the big sites are represented and there is some star power in the league. We'll draft 12 guys and only play five per week (PG, SG, SF, PF, C), just like a real NBA team. It's H2H and I can't wait to see who gets taken with the 360th pick. I also can't wait to see who is taken with the last pick of the first round (which will be the 30th pick overall). Why didn't I think of this type of league five years ago?

Obviously, I'll spend my first five picks on each starting position, which means I'll probably have to pass on some guys who shouldn't be sitting there, while also taking some guys that just don't feel right. This is going to be fun, and I should have a draft recap posted once it's in the books. I keep trying to get the number of leagues I'm in down to a manageable number, and then Brian Flood and Sergio Gonzalez come up with an idea like this…Luckily, I ranked the top 360 or so players in the guide, so I should be all set for this one.

Training Camp Fantasy Tidbits

It seems like I have been updating news contstantly since camp started on Monday/Tuesday. While there haven't been a lot of earth-shattering developments, it's worth knowing that Brandon Roy is possibly going to go under the knife soon, Jason Maxiell has been given a fantastic outlook by the Pistons' beat writers, and guys like Lamar Odom and Shareef Abdur-Rahim are still not healthy heading into the season. In addition, Tony Battie has been lost for the season (giving Adonal Foyle signs of life in Orlando) and Etan Thomas' season and career are in doubt, adding value to Wizards' center Brendan Haywood.

Let's check out tidbits from all 30 NBA teams.

Atlanta Hawks

Al Horford reportedly looks as good as advertised and will qualify at PF and C, while Tyronn Lue is still hurting. Speedy Claxton sounds like the starting point guard for the Hawks, who will be sporting new uni's and colors this season.

Boston Celtics

Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have shaved their heads, giving the C's a starting five of bald guys (Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are the other two). The show of unity is impressive, although the first team was beaten by the second on Wednesday. James Posey has also been very impressive playing with the second unit, and I'm on the verge up bumping his value up in the guide.

Charlotte Bobcats

Sean May might need microfracture surgery and Emeka Okafor is poised to become the starting center on most nights. Walter Herrmann could end up in the starting lineup on those nights, but that remains to be seen.

Chicago Bulls

Kirk Hinrich has beefed up a bit and is set to see at least 35 mpg (again), while Ben Wallace has been given the chance to wear his trademark headband again. Now you'll be able to sleep better at night. Andres Nocioni might be healthy, as there has been no mention of his foot injury thus far.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Eric Snow had knee surgery, assuring that Larry Hughes will run the point on opening night (barring a late trade for Mike Bibby), while Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic may not play for the Cavs this year. Go ahead and give Drew Gooden and Daniel Gibson a raise in value. And LeBron James wore a Yankees hat for the Indians' game in Cleveland. A pretty tasteless move if you ask me. The emails started rolling in immediately and the good news is that the guys I'm hearing from are so displeased with it that they may pass on him on draft night. He can wear a Yankees hat every day for the rest of his life and I'll still be psyched to get him with my first-round pick. But yeah, it was a bogus move, and may foreshadow his exit from Cleveland to the Knicks in a couple years.

Dallas Mavericks

Devin Harris is still on track to breakout, while there are rumblings, courtesy of Avery Johnson, that Jason Terry won't start. With Trenton Hassell and Eddie Jones on board, I guess it's possible, but you have to think Terry will be on the floor for starters' minutes, even if he comes off the bench. Erick Dampier is out indefinitely, so DeSagana Diop will be the opening-night starter at center.

Denver Nuggets

Kenyon Martin (knees) sounds close to going 5-on-5, but I'm still not convinced he'll be back for very long. They signed Stacy Augmon to a non-guaranteed contract, and he'll be a long shot to make the team. Plans are still in place for Chucky Atkins to start at point guard, so I'm sticking with him having nice value this season. The Nuggs also signed ancient Stacy Augmon to a non-guaranteed deal, but I doubt he makes the team's final roster.

Detroit Pistons

Jason Maxiell is slated to be the sixth man in Detroit, and without Chris Webber around, Maxiell is the ultimate deep sleeper this season. If Webber finally agrees to a deal with the team, it probably won't be until after the season is well underway.

Golden St. Warriors

Stephen Jackson is now a captain for the Warriors, despite the fact he'll miss the first seven games due to suspension. Marco Belinelli is the early candidate to start at shooting guard, in front of Monta Ellis, but I won't believe it until we're five games into the season. Nellie talked a lot of smack about several players last year, but in the end went with who he should have gone with. And Ellis should be starting at the 2.

Houston Rockets

Bonzi Wells is sidelined by a groin injury, but it doesn't sound as serious as his past injuries. He's still a viable sleeper candidate. I still think Steve Francis is going to have a big year in Houston. Luis Scola has been impressive in camp and will start at PF. Whether he has fantasy value is up for debate, but I love him as a late-round pick.

Indiana Pacers

New coach Jim O'Brien is raving about Jamaal Tinsley and how awesome he is going to be in a new-look, high-speed Pacers' offense, but I'll believe it when I see it. I still like Travis Diener (Tinsley's backup) as the ultimate sleeper. Marquis Daniels (who is still not healthy), is also slated for a big role with the team this season if he's healthy, and will play PG, SG and SF.

L.A. Clippers

Brevin Knight and Sam Cassell appear to be headed for a Ridnour/Watson-like timeshare, which is bad news for both of them. The good (and bad) news is that they're both always hurt, so if they time their injuries right, both could have nice value. Tim Thomas and Ruben Patterson are also super-sleepers with Elton Brand out for much of the year.

L.A. Lakers

Kobe is in camp and playing well with others. Lamar Odom is still not healthy and may not be ready for opening night with a knee problem and a bum surgically repaired shoulder. He has said he doesn't want to be traded. Kwame Brown got into trouble with the law over the weekend, giving Phil Jackson another reason not to like him.

Memphis Grizzlies

Damon Stoudamire is healthy and not ready to just hand the starting point guard job to Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry or Juan Carlos Navarro. Navarro has been running the point lately, but is more likely to end up as the sixth man with a big role at shooting guard. I'd rank the point guards like this, for now:

1. Damon Stoudamire
2. Mike Conley
3. Kyle Lowry

That said, I have not changed their values, as Stoudamire is going to have to give in to the youth movement eventually, even if he starts on opening night. And if Navarro blows Marc Iavaroni's socks off in the preseason, it's conceivable that he could start at point guard.

Miami Heat

Broken record alert…Dwyane Wade has set no timetable for his return from shoulder and knee surgery. The popular theory is that he'll miss two weeks. I am guessing it's at least a month initially, and then I think he'll have trouble staying healthy throughout the season. Penny Hardaway and Dorell Wright suddenly have value, while Shaquille O'Neal will work through his emotions after going through a potentially devastating divorce. Jason Williams is healthy, and you can flip a coin between him and Smush Parker for the starting job. Looks like another timeshare, unless Williams is traded.

Milwaukee Bucks

Earl Boykins is not with the Bucks or any other team at this point, but you have to think he'll land somewhere soon. Yi showed up for practice on Thursday, while Bobby Simmons is looking like he'll return from last season's devastating foot injury. I want to see him play before fully buying in. Charlie Bell reluctantly re-signed and should have some value, while Mo Williams, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are the sure bets here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anyone over the age of 25 is in jeopardy in Minnesota. They're all about going young and I'm pretty sure that Ricky Davis, Theo Ratliff, Mark Blount and Juwan Howard are all available to the highest bidder. Howard is as good as gone, but if the other three stay with the team, all should have some fantasy value, if healthy. Ratliff actually practiced this week! If Randy Wittman plays Davis every night, he could be the steal of your draft. But there is risk involved. Sleeper Alert - Rashad McCants looks awesome so far and could end up emerging as a fantasy stud this year. That doesn't mean he's worth spending a pick on, but a late-round flier could pay dividends.

NOK Hornets

Peja Stojakovic might be healthy this year and has been a favorite late-round pick in the drafts I've seen. However, he's still not able to go in all of the Hornets' practices. I'm not convinced Chris Paul is fully healthy yet, but he should be all right. Of course, a screw in the foot is never a good thing.

New Jersey Nets

Speaking of screws in the feet, Marcus Williams got one this week and will likely be out a couple months. They signed Darrell Armstrong to back up Jason Kidd. Nenad Krstic is not at full speed and may not be until January, while Jamaal Magloire and Josh Boone are sleepers. The signing of DA could mean the Nets won't sign Allan Houston after all. Who now might be headed to…

the New York Knicks

Then again, there doesn't seem to be room on the Knicks for Houston either, meaning no one has any idea where he'll play this season. Jerome James, Isiah's biggest mistake in a career of big mistakes, is hurt again and could be bought out to open up a roster spot. But Isiah gave him a massive five-year, $30 million deal to sit on the bench, report out of shape and be injured at all times. I know Jim Dolan isn't the smartest guy in the world, but he is one of the richest. Maybe he'll suck it up and buy him out. Zach Randolph is out of shape, which is not a surprise, and Stephon Marbury has been born again, which is a surprise. I didn't think the Knicks could be more of a circus after Larry Brown was booted, but I think it has happened. In case you didn't hear, there was a small trial going on over the last month, in which Isiah and the Knicks lost.

Orlando Magic

Tony Battie (shoulder) is out for the year, which could mean we see a starting lineup of Dwight Howard at C, Rashard Lewis at PF, Trevor Ariza/Hedo Turkoglu at SF, J.J. Redick/Turkoglu/Ariza at SG and Jameer Nelson/Carlos Arroyo at PG. Stan Van Gundy hasn't named Nelson as his starter, but I don't see how he loses the job to Arroyo, who can only seem to put it together when running the Puerto Rican National Team. There's a good chance their depth chart won't be in the correct order until 10 days into the season, but Ariza is a serious breakout candidate.

On a side note, Howard's value is the toughest to figure out of any player in the league. He's good enough to be the No. 1 fantasy player in the right league (no TOs, no FT%), and bad enough in those categories to kill your team if you use those cats. You know what he's going to do ahead of time, so look at your scoring system and make the call.

Philadelphia 76ers

Samuel Dalembert isn't fully healthy, making him a little risky. But the fact is that he's a top fantasy center and I'm not changing his value – Yet. Reggie Evans is looking at a career rebirth in Philly as the starting PF, but I'm still not convinced he'll score more than five or six points per game. However, he could challenge D. Howard for the rebounding title.

Phoenix Suns

Grant Hill is healthy and ready to start at SG, Shawn Marion was caught smiling on Thursday, and is ready to go, while Steve Nash, Raja Bell (knee surgery), Leandro Barbosa and Brian Skinner are also ready to go. Amare Stoudemire, on the other hand, underwent minor knee surgery, but should be ready for the start of the season. I'm still convinced he's going to need another major knee surgery in the next two years, but I'm just not sure when it's coming. There's a reason the Suns were trying to move him this summer, and that reason is bad knees. As for Barbosa, many folks are concerned about him losing production to Hill, which is a valid concern. But as long as you don't overpay for him, he's going to have a nice season, whether Hill is healthy or not.

Portland Trailblazers

Brandon Roy's heel issue is a major, major concern for me. The way I see it, the only way he's going to be guaranteed to be fully healthy next year is if he goes under the knife. I don't know how much time he'd miss, but I'm guessing it would be substantial. He's already basically been ruled out for the preseason, and the Blazers have almost no chance of the making the playoffs anyway. Why not go in and fix the problem that cost him 20 games last year, once and for all? Obviously, rest hasn't done the trick. I still like Travis Outlaw as a sleeper, while LaMarcus Aldridge (don't forget about his seemingly serious heel injury this summer) and Channing Frye's stock seems to be climbing by the minute. Joel Przybilla could even have some shot-blocking value this year with Greg Oden out. Oh, and for the record, Oden's best friend, Josh McRoberts, is out with a severely sprained ankle. He shouldn't have value with this team, but if Roy has surgery, I think Outlaw is going to be a stud. Darius Miles is talking like a guy who will make an impact this season, but I still don't buy it and he should not be drafted this year.

Sacramento Kings

Rookie coach Reggie Theus has implemented a team curfew and strict rules. Mike Bibby's defense has been ripped apart in the offseason. Brad Miller is supposedly coming back with a vengeance. Bibby has been in trade rumors all season. Ron Artest is saying all the right things, although he's still nuts. Shareef Abdur-Rahim's still not recovered from shoulder surgery. Francisco Garcia has been promised a bigger role. Rookie Spencer Hawes appears to have a serious knee injury that could require surgery. Kevin Martin signed a huge contract this summer and is ready to go. My 1st grader could read this and tell me "which of these things doesn't go with the others," and realize that Martin is the only sure bet in Sacramento this season.

San Antonio Spurs

Backup PG Beno Udrih broke a finger and will be questionable for opening night, backup center Francisco Elson is wearing a face mask to protect his broken eye socket, and Tony Parker is sitting out camp for precautionary/rest reasons. That's all we know out of San Antonio. Just like they are on the court, this team is boring when it comes to news. Brilliant, but boring.

Seattle Sonics

Sleeper C Robert Swift probably won't be up to full speed until midseason after ACL surgery, combo-guard Delonte West's role is undefined (and he's banged up with minor injuries) and rookie superstar Kevin Durant is going to start at SG instead of SF. Damien Wilkins could end up as the starting SF, but we shouldn't forget about Wally Szczerbiak and rookie Jeff Green, either. Consider all three players to be sleepers this season, depending on who starts.

Toronto Raptors

The Raps are in Rome for training camp and are having a good time. That's about all I've learned from following them on a daily basis via the Toronto papers. They're eating a lot, dressing well, hitting cool, historical sites in Italy and that's all I really know. Well, I also know that Chris Bosh is playing (although his foot injury still scares the heck outta me) and that Sam Mitchell has been yelling a lot. Oh, and I know that Andrea Bargnani isn't guaranteed a starting spot (yeah, right) and that Jorge Garbajosa is probably going to need another surgery on his leg. Garbo says he's fine, but GM Bryan Colangelo seems dead set on him having another procedure, and I'll take Colangelo in that fight any day of the week. We'll see.

Utah Jazz

Deron Williams has yet to participate in camp due to a bad experience having his wisdom teeth removed, but will be fine. The Jazz brought in a human pacifier for Andrei Kirilenko in the form of Jeff Hornacek, and the move seems to be working. I'm guessing AK hasn't been this happy since used his yearly pass for one free night in bed with a woman other than his wife. On a serious note, Carlos Boozer is out of camp while his young son recovers from a bone-marrow transplant. He should be ready for the season, but it really depends on how things go with his son. Good luck to Carlos and his family.

There's been talk of playing Kirilenko at PF and moving Mehmet Okur to the SF position to get AK more looks at the basket. For the record, Okur has never played small forward in his life and the Jazz would never consider this move if Kirilenko was not doing his best Terrell Owens impression. I find the whole thing quite annoying, actually. Kirilenko should suck it up, get on the same page with his coach and his team, and figure out how to play the small forward position effectively and with confidence. Am I right, Donnie?

Washington Wizards

Etan Thomas might be done for the season with a heart irregularity. In fact, his career could be over. While that is terrible news for Thomas, Brendan Haywood's value will take a jump if it's true. Gilbert Arenas worked very hard over the summer and appears to be ready to win the MVP award this season, although there are also rumblings that his knee injury was worse than the media was led to believe. I absolutely love Arenas this year, and would consider taking him with the No. 1 pick. Antawn Jamison is dealing with a shin injury, but it doesn't sound serious, and Caron Butler (hand) should be fully healthy coming into the season

[Hache Man]

Close call for Monta
The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is here. Just click on the link to order. The Guide will include everything you need to have a successful draft, including a pair of Top 200 lists and 'Tiers of Heaven,' which has become an extremely popular drafting technique here at Rotoworld. Over 350 players are profiled with projected stats and there are plenty of columns to keep you busy while you should be working on your TPS reports at work.

The ever popular Team Weekly Schedule Grid is back and bigger than ever, with new graphics and the ability to highlight weeks you're interested in looking at. If you want to win your league, you have to know who has the favorable schedules going into the season. As for the ever popular five-game weeks, Milwaukee is the lone club with a five-game week, although the Mavericks somehow swindled a three-game week for the All-Star Break, when everyone else is playing just once or twice. There's also a full column breaking down each team's schedule, as I have done in the past.

Close call for Monta

It was about 6 a.m. on Saturday morning when I got up to play golf in Tennessee with my buddies when I saw the Monta Ellis news scroll across the bottom of the screen. Paralyzed? Career over? I went to the lobby of the resort to get online and then posted the news on Rotoworld.

I'm glad to say that Ellis is fine – It was somehow nothing more than a neck sprain. I think we've grown somewhat used to (or at least somewhat adjusted to) seeing NFL players go down with potentially devastating spinal injuries. But it's not something we've had to deal with much in the basketball world. For as bad as the news sounded on Saturday morning, the fact Ellis escaped with just a minor injury is amazing. Now he can return to the task of trying to beat out Marco Belinelli for the starting shooting guard job.

Weekend News and Notes

Eddy Curry has a shoulder injury that doesn't sound like it will end his season, but could cause him to miss all of preseason and possibly the beginning of the regular season. This is another tough blow for the Knicks, as they were dying to see how Curry and Zach Randolph are going to co-exist in the middle.

Shaq (knee), Dwyane Wade (shoulder, knee) and Alonzo Mourning (quad) aren't likely to play in tonight's preseason game against the Pistons. None of their injuries appear to be serious, but the fact that Shaq is already struggling with tendonitis is his knees is a little concerning. The Heat faces the Pistons in one of three preseason games on tonight's schedule. Dorell Wright will start at SF and should be considered a deep sleeper this season.

Gilbert Arenas (knee) and Antawn Jamison (shin, ankle) are expected to play in Tuesday night's preseason game.

In training camp position battles, Phil Jackson is talking about starting Ronny Turiaf at center for the Lakers, while Jason Kapono, Carlos Delfino and Joey Graham will slug it out for the starting small forward job in Toronto. The Magic still have an intense battle brewing for the starting shooting guard job, with J.J. Redick, Trevor Ariza, Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling battling it out. Dooling is out for tonight's game against the Hawks with an abdominal strain, but should be back in the lineup on Wednesday. And for the record, I think Ariza is the guy who should win this battle.

Ricky Davis and Ryan Gomes started for the Timberwolves in the first preseason game so I'm hoping that the team is planning on using both players there all season.

Don't know if you got to catch the Celtics over the weekend, but their matchup against the Raptors was by far the most intense preseason game I've ever seen. I'm not sure Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett ever smiled and the chest bump KG was given by Pierce was borderline violent. These guys look focused and dialed in, but we still don't know if they can really play together or not. But I'm certainly leaning toward declaring them the favorite in the East this season.

Nuggets' backup point guard Anthony Carter broke his hand, which should clear the way for Chucky Atkins to start at PG. Nene has been sitting out training camp with a calf injury, but is still hopeful to be ready to go on opening night, while Kenyon Martin is still targeting being ready to play on opening night.

Allan Houston should be in a Knicks' uniform this week, as Jared Jeffries has already switched to No. 1 so Houston can wear No. 20 when he shows up.

Guide Sneak Preview

Here's another sneak preview of the Tiers included in the Draft Guide.

Many power forwards tend to also qualify at center, and this year it's likely that Kevin Garnett will spend time manning the middle for the Celtics, increasing his already stellar value. We've got Shawn Marion as the No. 1 player here, but that is contingent on him staying in Phoenix. The power forward quality drops off after Tier 3, so try to get at least one of the Top 14 on draft night.

Tier 1: Shawn Marion*, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan

Marion is a no-brainer No. 1 pick in turnover leagues, although he looks more like the No. 5 pick in leagues that don't count them - Especially when you add in the fact that he's disgruntled in Phoenix. He's still the Matrix, and tends to be undervalued every season. If he's traded, he'll certainly lose value, thus the asterisk. Garnett is still being taken with the No. 1 pick in some leagues despite being in Boston. We like LeBron, Gilbert Arenas and Kobe a little better at this point, but Garnett should still post monster numbers for the C's. And if he qualifies at center in your league, he has even more value. Dirk and Duncan are as consistent as they come and many Duncan owners found themselves in the winner's circle last year. Both players should put up stellar numbers again this season.

Tier 2: Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Emeka Okafor, Al Jefferson

Bosh's lingering plantar fasciitis is a definite concern, but it's not like the rest of this tier is all that reliable either. Boozer's young son is ill and he'll miss training camp while the child receives a bone-marrow transplant. Boozer also has a history of injury, but was able to put those behind him last season. The situation with his son is obviously serious, and worth keeping in the back of your mind. Okafor has yet to play a full season, but is a beast when healthy, while Jefferson appears to be ready to dominate the paint in Minnesota, if his ankles hold up.

Tier 3: Zach Randolph, David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Lamar Odom, Al Harrington, Nene

We still think Randolph is going to have a big year New York, but the concerns of him being able to play in a big city without getting into trouble, as well as co-exist with Eddy Curry, are real. He's also not great in several categories, but is historically a consistent and strong performer. People are sleeping on West, but once he got healthy last season, he was fantastic. There's no reason to think he won't be a top power forward this year. Aldridge is everyone's favorite breakout player, but will be under a lot of pressure to live up to the hype. The loss of Oden will put him in the spotlight, and he's going to be taken in the fifth or sixth round of most drafts. Odom is still not fully healthy from shoulder surgery and is questionable for the start of the season, while Nene isn't a picture of health either. He says it will be another year before his surgically repaired knee is 100 percent. Harrington should be a value pick and have another big season for Don Nelson.

Tier 4: Andrea Bargnani, Darko Milicic, Al Horford, Chris Wilcox, Troy Murphy, Channing Frye

It can be argued that Bargnani is a small forward, but the fact is he can play both forward positions as well as center, giving him some increased value due to his flexibility. He's a better 3-point shooter than a rebounder, but should be set to breakout this year. Darko should play a lot of center and power forward for the Grizzlies and they did not sign him away from the Magic to sit him on the bench. He should get the first starting opportunity of his career and even if he disappoints, he should be good for mega blocks and solid boards. Horford is going to likely start for the Hawks and play PF and C. We've likely got him ranked higher than other sources, but he's going to get minutes and the Hawks desperately need an inside presence. Expect him to be Kevin Durant's best competition for ROY. Wilcox and Murphy should improve on last season's numbers with new coaches in Seattle and Indy, and Murphy says he's ready for a big year. Frye's outlook wasn't originally too promising, but he suddenly looks guaranteed to see a lot of time now that Oden is out. And it doesn't hurt that he's looked great all summer.

Tier 5: Yi Jianlian, Al Thornton, Jamaal Magloire

Yi finally signed with the Bucks and is said to be guaranteed minutes and possibly a starting job. He looked good over the summer and could have a nice year. Thornton will see an increased rookie role with the loss of Brand, while Magloire should help fill the gap in Jersey as Nenad Krstic looks to return to form after knee surgery. Krstic may not be fully healthy until later in the season.

Tier 6: David Lee, Luis Scola, Drew Gooden, Elton Brand

Lee is going to struggle to return to prominence with the arrival of Randolph in NY, Scola looked fantastic this summer and should land the starting job in Houston, while Brand (ruptured Achilles) is still worth a late pick with the hope that he'll play at some point this season.

Tier 7: Antonio McDyess, Udonis Haslem, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Walter Herrmann, Hakim Warrick, Joe Smith, Chris Millsap, Chris Webber, Tyrus Thomas

McDyess, Haslem, SAR, Herrmann, Warrick and Smith should all have some fantasy value this season. Haslem, SAR and Smith should be starters, while the others will likely settle for backup roles. Webber is still unsigned, but if he goes back to Detroit, it remains to be seen whether he or McDyess is named the starter. Smith is undervalued, as he should start in Chicago and provide and inside scoring presence, while limiting the development of Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah in the process. However, Smith is historically injury prone. Millsap will struggle to see enough minutes behind Boozer, but could still have value, while the same can be said about Ty Thomas. If Smith wasn't in Chicago, the outlook would be much better for Thomas. He should still be considered a super-sleeper, but he'll likely be drafted sooner than he should be.

Tier 8: Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell, Ike Diogu

CV is hurt by the arrival of Yi and the supposed guarantee of minutes, Detroit's Maxiell is a great sleeper candidate and should be a good way to use your final pick, while the same can be said of Diogu in Indy.

Tier 9: Tony Battie, Mikki Moore, Shavlik Randolph, Kenyon Martin, Jorge Garbajosa, Reggie Evans, Shelden Williams, Darius Songaila, Craig Smith, , Kenny Thomas, Joakim Noah, Chuck Hayes, Brandan Wright, Brian Skinner, Amir Johnson, Andray Blatche, Anderson Varejao

These are the backups and should probably be avoided on draft day. That said, Battie and Moore should start, while Martin, Randolph, Skinner and Johnson are also still worth a look on draft night.

Tiers for all five positions (PG, SG, SF, PF and C) are included in the Draft Guide. See you there.

[Hache Man]

Betting the farm on LeBron
The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is available by clicking on the link and has everything you need to fully prepare for your draft. You name it and it's in there. Schedule breakdown and analysis, current depth charts, projections and detailed outlooks with current updates for more than 350 players – And a whole lot more, including Tiers of Heaven, in-depth team reports and a plethora of columns. Check it out.

I had two fantasy drafts going on during the day on Wednesday and they couldn't have been more different. One was in the Dropping Dimes expert league on Yahoo and the other was the 30-Deep League run by the guys at CBS Sportsline.

30-Deep League Draft Order

1. Aaron Gleeman, RotoWorld.com
2. Jake Payton, Senior Software Engineer, CBSSports.com
3. Tom Carpenter, RotoTimes.com
4. Peter Madden, Managing Editor, Fantasy Sports, CBSSports.com
5. Eric Karabell, ESPN.com
6. Dan Dobish, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
7. Dennis Velasco, Dropping Dimes.com
8. Tony Mejia, NBA Writer, CBSSports.com
9. Brian McKitish, ESPN.com
10. Lyle Crouse, Assistant Managing Editor, CBSSports.com
11. Patrick Madden, GiveMeTheRock.com
12. Dave Richard, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
13. Matt Lawrence, RotoWorld.com
14. Jamey Eisenberg, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
15. Mike Yam, Sirius Radio
16. David Gonos, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
17. Rick Kamla, NBA.com
18. Eric Mack, Senior Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
19. Steve Alexander, RotoWorld.com
20. Jason Horowitz, Video Host, CBSSports.com
21. Rory Brunner, FOX Sports.com
22. Scott White, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
23. Rick Cordella, RotoWorld.com
24. Sergio Gonzalez, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
25. Evan Silva, RotoWorld.com
26. Michael Hurcomb, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
27. David Klyce, HoopsKlyce.com
28. Ross Devonport, Fantasy Writer, CBSSports.com
29. Brian Flood, RotoWorld.com
30. Corey Guerrera, Fantasy Product Manager, CBSSports.com

Dropping Dimes' 14 owners

Alvin Lai & Ron Chow, Scott Sargent, Matt Satten, Brandon Haraway, Dennis Velasco – DroppingDimes.com
Neil Tardy - Talented Mr. Roto/ESPN
Kelly Dwyer - True Hoop/ESPN
James Quintong - Sports Illustrated
Steve Alexander – Rotoworld.com
Nels Wadycki - Give Me The Rock (givemetherock.com)
Sergio Gonzalez - CBS Sports
Jed Berger - DIME (dimemag.com)
Emry Downinghall - SLAM ( slamonline.com)
Ryan McNeill - Hoops Addict (hoopsaddict.com)

The Dropping Dimes draft absolutely flew by, as people were making picks about every 15 seconds. It was difficult to keep up with crossing players off of cheat sheets and if you didn't pre-rank players (which I don't usually do), you pretty much just had to go with the flow and get your next player queued up ASAP.

As for the other draft - They have a "live" link to that draft available and you can probably check in next week and we'll still be making our second-round picks. Thirty owners, five starters and the slowest draft of all time, hands down. Have you ever been late for work and get stuck behind a farmer on his tractor on a public highway? Well, living in the hills as I do, it's happened to me. That's sort of what this is like. This 30-team league is intense and is going to be a lot of fun. But trying to get 30 guys to be at their computer to make a pick when it's their turn is not easy. You've got guys on airplanes, broadcasting live NBA games on television when it's their turn, guys on both coasts, etc. And then you throw in the fact that most of us are pretty busy and it all leads to a snail's pace for the draft. And the slow pace is magnified since most of us are pretty excited to draft our teams. That draft started on Monday and I'm just about ready to make my SECOND pick (which will be LaMarcus Aldridge at 42 overall). The payoff of such a deep and (hopefully) competitive league should be worth the pain of waiting several days between picks.

Dropping Dimes Draft Recap

Round 1

Anyway, last night's Dropping Dimes draft was also interesting for me because I threw caution to the wind with the fourth overall pick. This was my fourth or fifth draft of the year already, and I've pretty much stuck to the 'book' (or should I say 'Guide') up to this point. My data told me that Shawn Marion was the no-brainer pick, and that he shouldn't have even been available to me at No. 4. Kobe Bryant went to Dennis from Dropping Dimes at No. 1, Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki also went to Dropping Dimes teams at No. 2 and 3, and then I was suddenly faced with taking LeBron James or Marion. This league is standard nine categories, including turnovers, and deep with 14 teams. Matrix is a stud in those formats – Every year. But LeBron was just sitting there. I saw the clock ticking down, sucked it up, threw the numbers in the trash and took LeBron over Marion. Once that happened, the flood gates opened up and I continued to fly by the seat of my pants. Would I do the same thing again if I was drafting tonight? That's the beauty of it. I don't know. Or, what if there was $1,000 on the line instead of nothing but pride and the love of the game? Another great question.

That said, Marion's trade request and locker room turmoil combined with the fact that James could do something really special this year spoke to me as I was getting ready to click. It's hard to call taking LeBron a mistake, whether it's the first or fourth pick.

Round 2

Those of you who are regular readers know that for the better part of the summer (and my entire career) I have said that Dwight Howard is a cat-killer in free throw percentage and turnover leagues. He's a cancer in those two cats and will drag your team down, right? Well, I must have forgotten about all that because I took Howard in the second round. I'm fairly certain the move was a direct result of writing a blurb earlier in the day on Rotoworld about how much better his free throw shooting (and shooting in general) has become, along with the fact that the kid is completely focused on cutting down on the TOs. Good enough for me, I guess. Boom – Howard is mine. And the funny thing is, I actually feel good about it!

Round 3

The third round rolled around and LaMarcus Aldridge was staring me in the face. Sign me up! Two starting centers are locked in and I've got two of the most promising young big men the game has ever seen. With Greg Oden out of the picture, Aldridge is everyone's favorite sleeper and I secured him, although I won't hide the fact that it was a reach. But a core of LeBron-Howard-Aldridge sure looks good on paper, point guards be damned. The rest of the group wasn't really feeling Aldridge that early, but I'm also fairly certain he would not have gotten back to me had I let him go.

I had no idea I was so in love with Aldridge this year, but apparently I am. I took him a little earlier than I had him projected in the last two drafts, but it's tough to know that if you let a guy you want go by you, there's no chance he'll be there on the way back.

Round 4

The fourth round rolled around and Jason Richardson was staring me in the face, as were point guards Raymond Felton and Mo Williams. Had Deron Williams been there, he would have been my pick, but he went in the middle of the second round, when I was speed dialing Howard's agent. I blew off the point guard situation for another round and took Richardson. If he can stay healthy (a big if), he's going to be a monster in Charlotte. This pick also drew some 'oohs' and 'ahhs' from the other owners. I feel good about it.

Round 5

So after four rounds I have the best player in the game (maybe), the two most promising centers you'll find this side of Amare and Yao, and a shooting guard with a chip on his shoulder primed for big things in Charlotte. So for Round 5 it was time to go point guard hunting. Andre Miller and Tony Parker were both there, but those guys are boring. Consistent, but boring. I decided to put aside all the rumors about Jason Terry coming off the bench and went for it. Looking back, I'm not sure that was the right call, but the numbers we're seeing from him this year support the pick. The bottom line for me is that Jet, whether coming off the bench or not, is going to be a stud again this year, as one of the focal points of the Mavericks' offense. I think taking Parker or Miller here would have possibly been a touch safer, but Jet's threes pushed him over the top for me. Again, I don't love the pick, but I am comfortable with it.

Round 6

Round 6 rolls around and I already have my starting five positions filled, as Aldridge can play both forward and center. I was all set for some Rajon Rondo or Ricky Davis here, but Neil from ESPN and Sergio from CBS snagged them just before my pick. In a league like this, you can't have too much depth at center, so I went ahead and grabbed Chris Kaman - The last center available without a big question mark next to his name. He scares me a little after last year, but without Elton Brand around for the foreseeable future, I am happy to have him. Brandon from Dropping Dimes took Peja Stojakovic here, so I feel pretty good about getting a guaranteed producer at center in retrospect.

Round 7

Round 7 was time for another point guard, or should I say a "real" point guard as opposed to the combo-guard thing I got with Terry. T.J. Ford was there and when I took him, several vulgarities appeared in the chat room. That is always a great feeling, especially knowing he was the last top-tier PG available. With Ford and Jet to go along with the rest of my studs, my point guard situation doesn't look too bad. And I wasn't done with them yet, either.

Round 8

The eighth pick was my biggest gamble of the draft. Tim Thomas has to play big minutes for the Clippers and has been tagged as the guy who will replace Brand in the starting five. In addition to playing the post and racking up points and boards, the guy loves shooting the three-ball. He's going to hurt my FG%, but Howard and Aldridge should help offset the damage. Thomas could easily be a bust, but it really feels like he's going to get a ton of opportunity this season. Yeah, I could have taken Morris Peterson, Chucky Atkins or even Brand here (the next three picks), but in my mind, Thomas has at least as good a chance at having a big year as those guys do. He's healthy and his combination of big-man, small man numbers look great for an eighth-round pick. But I would not be shocked if he struggles, either.

Round 9

The ninth round rolled around and Acie Law was getting lonely. And since I'm a "what have you done for me lately" kind of guy, another recent post about 'how great Law is going to be' influenced my decision. The Hawks' veterans love him, Mike Woodson loves him and according to Sekou Smith of the AJC, he's going to get a lot of run and spend time on the floor at the end of games. Speedy Claxton might be the opening-night starter, but Law could be the opening-night closer. I needed another PG and Law looks like he's going to play a big role for the Hawks this season. Players taken just before him included Mike Conley, Tyrus Thomas and Luis Scola, so I wasn't the only guy going for upside in this round.

Round 10

I took Mike Dunleavy in Round 10 and he had a great game for the Pacers last night. He should fit in well with Jim O'Brien's new hit-and-run offense and his ability to move without the ball is going to benefit him. He also can't possibly shoot as poorly as he did last season, so I consider him a great value pick this late. Other guys taken around this time included Devin Harris, Travis Outlaw and Smush Parker. Dunleavy is locked into a prominent role with the Pacers, while those other guys come with plenty of upside, but no guarantees. I love this pick.

Round 11

I still felt like I needed one more center and reached for Mark Blount in Round 11, who should start there for the Wolves this year. He could end up being the first man I cut in this league, but if I'd have taken Kendrick Perkins or Brendan Haywood, I could say the same thing.

Round 12

I rounded out the team by taking Derek Fisher, who will start at point guard for the Lakers this season. He's going to be hit or miss, but should offer solid 12th-round value in any league. I have no issues with this pick.

I feel pretty good about the team, but haven't really been able to compare it to the others just yet. It's important to know that I completely stand behind the projections, rankings and other information in the Draft Guide. If I would have gotten the first pick instead of the fourth, I might have just taken Marion. I don't know. Every draft is different. But you have to take everything into consideration when drafting your team. Things like the "feel" of the room, whether you start one or two centers, early trends and which players you feel best about in the heat of the moment, regardless of what the numbers tell you or where you've got a guy ranked. This is why using the Tiering System is so important. It's amazing how values can fluctuate based on position scarcity and trends, while I also realize that a seemingly harmless, short blurb on Rotoworld that you read on your way to your draft could persuade you to do something you weren't planning on. As soon as I had both Howard and Aldridge locked up early, the center pool was suddenly much thinner than we imagined it would be at that point. I'm not saying it was a great move, or that it was by design, but that it simply changed the complexity of the draft and probably gave centers even more early value than they originally had.

Some nights you go by the book, and other times you just have to wing it. I'm not sure how the other owners feel about my draft, but knowing that I will start Howard at center, Aldridge at power forward, LeBron at small forward, Richardson at shooting guard and Terry or Ford at point guard should at least send some fear their

[Hache Man]

Waiver Wired
We're getting close enough to the start of the season I thought I'd roll out the first Waiver Wired of the year. This column should normally drop on Sundays, hopefully in time for you to get to see it before needing to set your lineups on Mondays. It will be my primary column this season, along with the Daily Dose. It was posted late on Monday this week.

While most of you haven't drafted yet, there are plenty of guys who weren't selected in the mocks I've participated in, or players whose stock is on the rise after training camp developments. I'm going to feature several such players below. Most of these guys should be targeted late in your draft, if at all, but there are also a couple big names that are making some news in the preseason.

The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is available by clicking on the link and has everything you need to fully prepare for your draft. You name it and it's in there. Schedule breakdown and analysis, current depth charts, projections and detailed outlooks with current updates for more than 350 players – And a whole lot more, including Tiers of Heaven, in-depth team reports and a plethora of columns. Check it out.

Preseason Players

Ronnie Brewer - Jazz SG

I have to admit I didn't give Brewer much of a thought this summer when compiling the Draft Guide. However, he's been tearing it up in the preseason and is clearly the favorite to win the starting SG job in Utah. With his job on the line, he answered the call while Gordan Giricek and Morris Almond have had their problems. Brewer is easily leading the team in scoring thus far and has struggled to do anything wrong.

In three preseason games he's averaging 21 points, is 23-of-36 from the floor, 16-of-18 from the line and has racked up six steals. He's only hit one 3-pointer, but they're likely to come. He also dropped 20 points in the fourth quarter against the Bucks on Saturday to secure a win. He's still a deep sleeper, but looks like he's going to fit in nicely as a likely starter for Jazz. Jump on him if he's available at the end of your draft.

Acie Law – PG, Al Horford – F/C, Marvin Williams - F - Hawks

Speedy Claxton is still trying to nurse his knee back to health, while Law has been running the team in most of their four preseason games. His numbers won't knock your socks off, but he's averaging a respectable eight points, 5.3 assists and two steals in three games. I wouldn't be surprised to see him named the opening-night starter, but there is a catch. He's going to have an MRI on his wrist and didn't play against the Blazers on Sunday due to the injury. If healthy, Law should be a serviceable fantasy point guard this season and could compete for ROY. He's also gained the trust of the coaching staff and his teammates early, which is another great sign for him offering value.

Rookie Al Horford is also looking good and you have to get the sense the Hawks made two solid draft picks in the Top 11 this year. Horford's lines, while unspectacular, have been consistent and solid, giving the young gun a lot of promise. In the points and boards categories, in four games, he's gone: 9 & 7, 8 & 7, 10 & 9 and 14 & 11. There's still a chance he could start at center for the Hawks, but at 6-9, it's a bit of a stretch to expect him to enforce the paint against 7-footers every night. But whether he's starting or coming off the bench, he looks like an excellent late-round value pick so far.

Marvin is tearing it up in the preseason, averaging 18.8 points and five boards for an improved Hawks team. We all know about his upside, but it's important to remember that he missed the early part of last year with a broken hand. Not only did he miss games, but he missed a lot of camp time and had to deal with soreness once he returned. He has had no such problems this season and while his role is still somewhat undetermined, he should be a nice pick after the middle of your draft. He's all upside.

Luis Scola - Rockets PF

Scola looks good early for the Rockets and went for 17 points and six boards on 8-of-10 shooting on Thursday. He appears to be a lock for the starting power forward job in Houston and should make for a quality late-round pick.

Juan Carlos Navarro - Grizzlies G

Navarro blistered Unicaja for 21 points last week, 19 of them coming in the second half, and hit five threes. His other game wasn't that great (six points, four dimes, 2-of-7 shooting), but it looks like he'll be a solid sixth man for the Grizzlies. He's also likely to see some time at point guard this season as well.

Ryan Hollins - Bobcats F/C

With the loss of Sean May (knee) and the fact that Primoz Brezec (personal) has yet to play a game for the Charlotte, Hollins has been getting some nice preseason run. The Cats really don't want to start Emeka Okafor at center (although I think they should), so Brezec or Hollins appear to be in line for decent minutes this season. Hollins has averaged seven points, four boards and a block in his three games. He's shooting it poorly from both the field (39%) and line (58%), and when you look at the big picture, he's not a viable draft candidate right now. But there's a legitimate chance he could end up as the opening-night starting center, so you should simply be aware of him and keep your eye on his box scores early in the season.

Tyrus Thomas - Bulls F/C

Initially it looked like Thomas, who makes far too many mistakes for Scott Skiles to live with on a nightly basis, was destined to come off the bench behind Joe Smith. But Smith has been out with swelling in his knee and has yet to play for Chicago. And given his age and injury history, Smith may not be healthy enough to get out there every night anyway. Add in the fact that Thomas has looked great thus far, and he's become a solid fantasy option. He's averaging 10.5 points, six boards, 1.5 assists, 2.5 steals and a block in the preseason. Those are great numbers and regardless of whether he starts or not, he should be owned in all leagues. He will likely go between the seventh and ninth round in most drafts this year.

Rodney Stuckey - G, Jarvis Hayes – G/F, Jason Maxiell – F/C - Pistons

Stuckey would be a much more popular fantasy rookie if he wasn't playing in Detroit, but he's averaging 10 ppg and many people think he's a future star. Hayes is a journeyman with a bad knee but has been impressive in the preseason for the Pistons. The only problem is, Flip Saunders is trying to work out his backup rotation and Hayes may struggle to see enough minutes to make a difference this season. That said, he may have locked up the sixth-man job with his strong play thus far. He's averaging about 15 points and five boards thus far.

Maxiell is the real gem here and he should contribute immediately with the only recent Chris Webber sighting being his jersey on a billboard that Jalen Rose bought in Michigan. He's at 11.5 points and 7.5 boards and will be a popular late-round pick.

Kelenna Azubuike - Warriors G/F

Azubuike is on fire this preseason, averaging 19 points and nearly six boards per game, while shooting lights out. He's at 53% FG, 62.5% from downtown and has hit five threes in three games. I can't see this lasting into the regular season, especially since Monta Ellis has been out and Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes have been dinged up. Then again, this is Don Nelson we're dealing with here, so anything's possible.

Ricky Davis – G/F, Ryan Gomes - F - Timberwolves

Davis has been playing well and scoring (15 ppg). His assists and rebounds have not been great, but it's important that he appears to be playing for two key things: A trade to a contender and a new contract. He's going to score a lot of points this season, and the Wolves are hoping he can average five rebounds and assists. He has the skills to do it, but if he gets traded, his role could change significantly. He should make for a solid pick somewhere between the fifth and seventh rounds.

Gomes has been playing well, averaging 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds and looks like a starter in Minnesota. Even if he doesn't start, he should see plenty of minutes and be worth a late-round pick.

Hilton Armstrong - Hornets C

Tyson Chandler has picked up where he left off last season, averaging 14 points and nine boards thus far, but Armstrong is making a strong push as his backup. Armstrong is at 12.7 points and seven boards and could be a decent second fantasy center this season. He's made strong improvements since last year and would become a real fantasy factor if Chandler were to suffer an injury.

J.J. Redick - Magic SG

Redick appears to be the leading candidate to win the starting shooting guard job in Orlando, averaging 15 points, two rebounds and two assists in the preseason. He's on fire from the floor, hitting 62.5% and is shooting 64% from downtown. He's also hitting his free throws (87.5%) as usual, and has buried nine threes. He won't give you much outside of the threes and percentages, but he shouldn't hurt you anywhere either.

Louis Williams - Sixers G

Williams is tearing it up and will see minutes at both guard spots for the Sixers. He's averaging 20.7 points in three games, along with four boards and 3.3 assists. In addition, he's swiping 1.7 steals per game, but is struggling from long range, hitting just 1-of-10 threes thus far. The threes will come (hopefully) and Williams is the ultimate deep sleeper this season. He should be well worth a late-round pick in most leagues. And if he's not drafted in your league, keep a close eye on him early in the season.

Quincy Douby - Kings G

Like Williams, Douby is seeing minutes at both guard spots and is averaging 14 points and 3.5 boards per game. He's averaging two steals in two games and has hit four threes as well. With Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Mike Bibby in front of him, he may struggle to have value, but is a guy worth keeping an eye one.

Andrei Kirilenko - Jazz F

All signs are pointing to a return to form for Kirilenko, who's averaging seven points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.7 blocks while shooting 47%. He's also perfect from the line after three games, but he's only shot three freebies. There is always a concern with his attitude, injuries and the return of Carlos Boozer cramping his style, but if you can get him late (any time after the 70th pick in your draft), he could emerge as a big-time steal.

[Hache Man]

Pre-draft Team Notes
The big week is finally here. I'm guessing about 80% of fantasy hoops drafts will take place between Monday and Sunday this week. I'm going to hit 15 teams today with last-minute items for you to think about heading into your draft, including what Adam Morrison's season-ending knee injury means to guys like Walter Herrmann and Matt Carroll, as well as last-minute position battles news.

The other 15 teams will be in Tuesday's column.

The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is here. Just click on the link to order. The Guide includes everything you will need to have a good draft night, although it won't buy the pizza and beer.

Good luck at your draft!

Team-by-Team Notes

Atlanta Hawks

I don't think we're going to see too much of Speedy Claxton this season. In fact, I don't even thing he's draftable, except in the deepest of leagues. His knees still aren't right and may never be again. Anthony Johnson could end up starting for the Hawks on opening night, but make no mistake. Acie Law is the point guard you want to own from the Hawks. He is the real deal and even if he's not starting on Day 1, he will be the player getting starter's minutes.

Al Horford has been as good as advertised and should make a run at ROY. Again, he may not be in the starting five on opening night, but Mike Woodson knows he has to play Horford a lot this season. Zaza Pachulia is currently sidelined with a knee and ankle injury and if he's not ready for the start of the season, Horford will probably move into the starting lineup and may stay there all year.

Marvin Williams has looked fantastic this preseason and should be a solid late value pick, while Josh Smith and Joe Johnson will likely be worth second-round picks this year. Marvin was injured last season to start the year and it took him awhile to get going. He looks much improved this year. Tyronn Lue has yet to play as he recovers from knee surgery.

Projected starting five: PG Acie Law, SG Joe Johnson, SF Marvin Williams,
PF Josh Smith, C Zaza Pachulia

Boston Celtics

There's not much to say about the Celtics. Kevin Garnett might be the No. 1 overall pick in your draft, while Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will probably go in the second round. Rajon Rondo is a popular sleeper pick (seventh round?) and Kendrick Perkins has actually been playing fairly well. The biggest fantasy news out of Boston might be that KG is probably going to qualify at center in your league at some point. Maybe not to start the season, but he'll probably be center eligible by the All-Star break, at least. Tony Allen is recovering from knee surgery and has an eye injury, but has looked fine when he's played in the preseason, while James Posey is suspended for the first game of the season.

Projected starting five: PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, PF Kevin Garnett, C Kendrick Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats

I was watching the Charlotte game when Adam Morrison went down with his knee injury. I immediately posted a news blurb and suggested he might be done for the year. Unfortunately, I was right. I've been as tough on Morrison as anyone, but he was having a nice preseason and playing some D, which is how he got hurt. Anyway, Sam Vincent has finally given up on starting Ryan Hollins or Primoz Brezec at center and it sounds like Emeka Okafor is going to get that job. I had Okafor there at the start of training camp, but later moved him to PF in the depth charts. I guess I should have just left him there. Morrison's injury and Okafor's apparent move to center will likely put Walter Herrmann in the starting five, as well as give some extra minutes to Matt Carroll and Derek Anderson. Herrmann is even a better looking sleeper today than he was on Friday and every time he's been drafted in my leagues this year, you can hear the groans of disappointment from nearly every other owner. And for the record, Gerald Wallace has been a monster in the preseason and will be going to the line a LOT this year.

Along with Morrison, Sean May is out for the season and Othella Harrington still hasn't played for the team.

Projected Starting lineup: PG Raymond Felton, SG Jason Richardson, SF Gerald Wallace, PF Walter Herrmann, C Emeka Okafor

Chicago Bulls

Ben Gordon's ankle injury is a bit of a concern, so hopefully he plays again before the regular season starts. Aaron Gray has looked good this preseason and should be a useful backup center for the Bulls, while Andres Nocioni looks like he might be healthy. It's tough to get a handle on what the exact starting lineup is going to look like, but whether Nocioni ends up in it or not, he's going to have some fantasy value. Joe Smith's knee is going to be shaky all year and I highly recommend drafting Tyrus Thomas well before Smith in drafts.

Deng (wrist) is also banged up, so keep an eye on him.

Projected starting lineup: PG Kirk Hinrich, SG Ben Gordon, SF Luol Deng, PF Tyrus Thomas, C Ben Wallace

Cleveland Cavaliers

Don't count on seeing Anderson Varejao or Sasha Pavlovic playing in Cleveland this year, which boosts the value of Drew Gooden and Daniel Gibson. LeBron is the only top player in the league yet to hit his ceiling for production, giving him the most proverbial "upside," which is why I'm convinced he should be the first player taken in your draft. Gilbert Arenas has a knee issue, Kobe has Kobe issues, Shawn Marion has too much competition for the ball, and while Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett are also worthy of No. 1 consideration, I'm going with LeBron.

Projected starting lineup: PG Larry Hughes, SG Daniel Gibson, SF LeBron James, PF Drew Gooden, C Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Dallas Mavericks

Jason Terry appears to be destined for a bench role, giving Jerry Stackhouse the starting shooting guard job. I'm not sure how long Avery Johnson will stick with that arrangement, but it's the way it is for now. Josh Howard is out for the first two games of the season with a suspension, while Erick Dampier is still trying to get healthy after shoulder surgery, leaving DeSagana Diop as the starting center. Terry could start the first two games with Howard out, sliding Stack over to small forward. Or they could leave Terry on the bench and go with Eddie Jones at the 2 or 3.

Projected starting lineup: PG Devin Harris, SG Jerry Stackhouse, SF Josh Howard, PF Dirk Nowitzki, C DeSagana Diop

Denver Nuggets

J.R. Smith is in trouble with the law, is in George Karl's doghouse and has been suspended for three games by the team. I am staying away from him this season. Chucky Atkins is limited by a groin injury so Allen Iverson should get the start at point guard, with Linas Kleiza likely starting a shooting guard. Nene's still not fully healthy, but hopes to get there by opening night, while Kenyon Martin could be the opening-night power forward if Nene's not ready to go. I'm expecting a huge season from Marcus Camby and Carmelo Anthony, while Iverson, Atkins and Nene should all be solid as well, once they're all healthy. Remember that part of the reason Melo wasn't a better fantasy player last year was due to his 15-game suspension. I would avoid KMart, unless you want to use a late-round flier on him. But I'm guessing his two microfracture surgeries will limit him this year. And if KMart and Nene remain injured, Eduardo Najera could be a nice waiver-wire sleeper. Check out his last few preseason lines, of just click on his link to see what his last few news blurbs have looked like.

Backup point guard Anthony Carter is still out with a broken hand.

Projected starting lineup: PG Allen Iverson/Chucky Atkins, SG Linas Kleiza/Allen Iverson, SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Nene/Kenyon Martin, C Marcus Camby

Detroit Pistons

Jason Maxiell is one of my favorite sleepers this year and he's been coming on as of late in preseason games. Amir Johnson should also be good, but is currently injured. Rodney Stuckey has looked very good and might be worth owning at some point, while it remains unclear as to if or when we'll see Chris Webber play this year.

Rip Hamilton has a sprained ankle and is questionable for opening night, while Nazr Mohammed is slowed by a calf injury.

Projected starting lineup: PG Chauncey Billups, SG Richard Hamilton, SF Tayshaun Prince, PF Antonio McDyess, C Rasheed Wallace

Golden St. Warriors

Don Nelson is a fantasy owners' nightmare of a coach. He's demoted Al Harrington to sixth man and appears ready to start Monta Ellis as shooting guard. Marco Belinelli will have fantasy value this year, while it's unclear as to when or how much, while Matt Barnes, Kelenna Azubuike and Mickael Pietrus are also going to be in the rotation. Stephen Jackson has been suspended for seven games, so the opening-night starting five will be – PG Baron Davis, SG Monta Ellis, SF Kelenna Azubuike, PF Mickael Pietrus, C Andris Biedrins, at least for the first seven games.

I don't think Harrington will come off the bench all season, unless the Warriors get off to a hot start with such a small lineup. But I expect Nellie to tinker with the rotation and lineup quite a bit, so be prepared to see guys like Barnes, Pietrus and Azubuike to bounce around the fantasy waiver wire all year. Ellis is also risky after his neck injury, but the Warriors are hoping he'll be ready for opening night.

Then the lineup should switch to:

Projected starting lineup: PG Baron Davis, SG Monta Ellis, SF Stephen Jackson, PF Mickael Pietrus, C Andris Biedrins.

Houston Rockets

Steve Francis is not in good enough shape to run Rick Adelman's offense yet, so it looks like Rafer Alston is your starting point guard. Yao Ming has had no problems fitting into Adelman's up-tempo offense, but Francis hasn't figured it out yet, or isn't in good enough condition to handle the pace. Shane Battier should be a nice, late-round value pick, while Luis Scola is another very popular sleeper as the starting PF. Bonzi Wells figures to make a splash at some point this season, if he can stay healthy. Remember that he and Adelman have a good relationship and Bonzi has played well for him in the past.

Projected starting lineup: PG Rafer Alston, SG Tracy McGrady, SF Shane Battier, PF Luis Scola, C Yao Ming

Indiana Pacers

Jermaine O'Neal's knee has limited him in the preseason and potential owners, as we said in a recent news blurb may have to "get used to it." He's such a great source of points, boards and blocks that it's tough to pass on him in the second or third round of you draft, but his knee could be an issue all season. And if he gets traded in February, he could miss a game or two as well. Danny Granger is primed for a breakout season, although his preseason has been less than spectacular. I landed him in that 30-team league and am still hopeful that he'll get it going during the regular season. Troy Murphy is out with an Achilles' injury and may not be ready to start the season, while the Pacers have several deep sleepers on their roster, including Travis Diener, Ike Diogu and Marquis Daniels.

With Murphy hurting, I'm going to throw Jeff Foster into the opening-night starting five, but Murphy should start at either PF or C alongside O'Neal when they're both healthy. It's also possible that Diogu could start on opening night in place of Murphy, but I'm just not sure.

Projected starting lineup: PG Jamaal Tinsley, SG Mike Dunleavy, SF Danny Granger, PF Jermaine O'Neal, C Jeff Foster

L.A. Clippers

I'm not sure we'll see Elton Brand before March, so guys like Ruben Patterson, Tim Thomas and Al Thornton are expected to fill in for him. Thornton has been on fire and is surprisingly burying 3-pointers in the preseason, and should be in a battle with Horford and Kevin Durant for ROY.

I'm not sure that Mike Dunleavy knows who he's going to start at PF yet, and it could be any of the three guys I have listed below.

Cuttino Mobley is reportedly going to come off the bench this season, moving Quinton Ross into the starting five. Mobley is still the guy with the fantasy value here.

Projected starting lineup: PG Sam Cassell, SG Quinton Ross, SF Corey Maggette, PF Ruben Patterson/Tim Thomas/Al Thornton, C Chris Kaman

L.A. Lakers

All is not well in Laker-land as Kobe Bryant has the rumors flying in SoCal. He's still the best basketball player on the planet and will go in the Top 3 of every draft, even though he's pouting and could be traded to the Bulls or Mavs at any second. Andrew Bynum appears to be ready to take over the full-time center job, while Chris Mihm, Kwame Brown and Ronny Turiaf all look like sucker bets. Luke Walton is usually undervalued and will probably be worth the late pick you spend on him. Lamar Odom is not yet healthy and his injury problems have me slightly concerned for the season. Derek Fisher will be running the point, and should make for an excellent backup point guard with your last pick.

Projected starting lineup: PG Derek Fisher, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Luke Walton, PF Lamar Odom, C Andrew Bynum

Memphis Grizzlies

Several surprising things have come out of Memphis lately like: Damon Stoudamire is slated to begin the season as the starting point guard, Stromile Swift looks like the starting power forward and Rudy Gay has been blocking some serious shots in the preseason. Gay looks like a big-time breakout candidate, while Darko Milicic should have more value than Swift. If you've played fantasy hoops for five years or so, you already have been burned by Stro at least once. Let the new guy have him. Pau Gasol (moderate ankle sprain) is injured again, but hopefully he's ready for the start of the season, while Mike Conley and Juan Carlos Navarro will probably end up having more value than Stoudamire.

I'd avoid Tarence Kinsey this season, as he's been knocked out of the rotation by Navarro, who should be the sixth man in Memphis.

Projected starting five: PG Damon Stoudamire, SG Mike Miller, SF Rudy Gay, PF Stromile Swift, C Pau Gasol

Miami Heat

The Heat are an injury mess with so many older players it's hard to even figure out who will be on the court on opening night. Most of their preseason games (all losses) have featured more players in street clothes than uniforms and it's just not pretty. Dorell Wright figures to play a big role in the offense, but he's a "pass-first, pass-second, shoot-third" kind of guy, limiting his value on a team with no one to pass it to. When you consider that Jason Williams might be the safest bet on this team right now, well – That's just not right. I am going to try to avoid all Heat players this season, unless I can get my hands on Dwyane Wade in the third round. Which is probably not going to happen.

Projected starting five: PG Jason Williams, SG Smush Parker, SF Dorell Wright, PF Udonis Haslem, C Shaquille O'Neal

[Hache Man]

Team-by-Team Notes, Pt.2


Here is Part 2 of the team-by-team notes preview. If you missed Monday's column, it covered the first 15 teams in the league alphabetically.

One player I failed to mention yesterday was Denver's Bobby Jones. He's about as unknown as they come, as I've seen him listed as a rookie by some fairly major news outlets. He's had some very solid preseason games and there's a remote chance that he could start at shooting guard. He's not someone you should think about drafting, but could end up having value if he somehow ends up in George Karl's regular rotation this season. And as J.R. Smith continues to fall farther into Karl's doghouse, he's had nothing but good things to say about Jones.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are an eclectic bunch and it's tough to get a feel for what they're going to do this season. Desmond Mason appears to be locked into the starting lineup, but I'm not sure he's going to stay there. Then again, Bobby Simmons still isn't fully recovered from his foot surgeries and Charlie Bell is still pouting after the Bucks matched the Heat's offer for him this summer. A few things are clear here, and that's that Mo Williams is locked and loaded at point guard, Andrew Bogut is the only real option in the middle and Yi Jianlian and Charlie Villanueva are going to split minutes. Oh, and Michael Redd is the primary scoring option on offense again this season. All of the aforementioned players will be taken in your draft, but the Bucks are probably a better fantasy team than they are in reality.

Projected starting five: PG Mo Williams, SG Michael Redd, SF Desmond Mason, PF Charlie Villanueva/Yi Jianlian, C Andrew Bogut

Minnesota Timberwolves

The T-Wolves have a new look, to say the least, this season. Kevin Garnett is gone and Theo Ratliff, who contrary to reports is actually still alive and in the league, looks like their starting center. They have struggled in the preseason and have been running Marko Jaric at point with Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair hurting, but expect Foye and Telfair to run the show on most nights. Corey Brewer has been playing some wicked defense and appears to have won a starting job, while Ricky Davis is looking to score a ton of points on one of the league's worst teams. Al Jefferson is ready to fully breakout and will go as early as the late second round in some leagues. He's helped by the fact he qualifies at center in most leagues.

Ratliff was left for dead, but has thrilled Sam Mitchell with his defense in the preseason. That hurts Mark Blount's value, as does the emerging Craig Smith. Ryan Gomes, Mark Blount and Rashad McCants are all going to make some noise this year and will all be owned in your league at one time or another. Gomes is also hurt, but most of the Wolves injured players should be back around the start of the season.

Projected starting five: PG Randy Foye/Sebastian Telfair, SG Ricky Davis, SF Corey Brewer, PF Al Jefferson, C Theo Ratliff

NOK Hornets

The Hornets have as many questions as they do answers this season. Chris Paul appears to be healthy, but is frail, Morris Peterson's preseason, to put it bluntly, has been awful, Peja Stojakovic's back is still not where it needs to be and everyone is still trying to figure out how Tyson Chandler looked so good last year. David West appears to be the rock holding everything together, while Paul will be a favorite fantasy point guard this season. Peterson is the big mystery here, as he was supposed to have a career resurgence in New Orleans, but has not looked good in a single preseason game. Meanwhile, combo-guard and elder statesman Bobby Jackson has been playing well and should make for a nice last-round value pick. I still think Peterson will get it going once the season starts, but Jackson could be a better play early in the season. Chandler has a strong hold on the center job, while Hilton Armstrong has had a fantastic preseason and should also see some minutes there. I'm fine with Peja as a mid-round flier, but the chances of him staying healthy are so slim I'm not sure he's worth your time.

Projected starting five: PG Chris Paul, SG Morris Peterson, SF Peja Stojakovic, PF David West, C Tyson Chandler

New Jersey Nets

Jason Kidd's back is not 100%, but Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson appear to be ready to go this season. I'm not sold on Nenad Krstic's surgically repaired knee holding up all year and he probably won't be at full speed until mid-way through the season. RJ is healthy for the first time in a year and could be an excellent mid-round value pick for owners, while Jamaal Magloire should offer big-man value late in your draft. The latest word on Kidd's back is that it's improving, so it's possible it may not limit him this season. Bostjan Nachbar had a great preseason, but once the Nets are running at full strength, he'll probably be a shaky fantasy play.

Projected starting five: PG Jason Kidd, SG Vince Carter, SF Richard Jefferson, PF Jamaal Magloire, C Nenad Krstic

New York Knicks

The Knicks have a very deep team, and in addition to the starters, we'll see bench players like David Lee, Nate Robinson and Renaldo Balkman will also see some action this season. We still don't know how well Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph are going to play together, but they should be fine. Marbury should once again be a solid point guard and can probably be had later than he should be. Crawford should remain unchallenged for his job and could also be a nice sleeper pick. Richardson is fully healthy for the first time in a long while, and like the rest of his teammates, should offer some value later in the draft.

Projected starting five: PG Stephon Marbury, SG Jamal Crawford, SF Quentin Richardson, PF Zach Randolph, C Eddy Curry

Orlando Magic

The Magic have to be pleased with what they've seen from Dwight Howard this preseason, and I think he's going to be a fantasy beast. The free throw shooting appears to be much improved and he could lead the league in blocks and rebounds this year. Shooting guard is still up for grabs, with J.J. Redick and Trevor Ariza among the competitors for the job. Redick should be a solid source of threes, while Ariza is a little like a mini Andre Iguodala, if he gets minutes. Jameer Nelson should be primed for a bounce-back season, while Hedo Turkoglu should see plenty of minutes at the two wing positions. Rashard Lewis is off to a shaky start with the Magic after suffering two injuries. He's just now returned to practice from a sprained ankle and everyone is just hoping he's fully healthy by opening night. He's going to play a lot of power forward due to the loss of Tony Battie (shoulder surgery), and Adonal Foyle will start some nights at center against bigger lineups. Foyle could be a decent source of blocks, but I wouldn't draft him.

Projected starting five: PG Jameer Nelson, SG J.J. Redick/Trevor Ariza, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Rashard Lewis, C Dwight Howard

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers got more bad news about Samuel Dalembert recently, as he's back in a walking boot as he tries to overcome a stress fracture in his foot. I put up some sarcastic blurbs regarding Dalembert's injury when it first happened, as he and the Sixers both kept saying that he was going to be fine and there was nothing to worry about. Well, they are clearly worried at this point and the reality is that they may end up having to start rookie Jason Smith at center until Dalembert gets healthy. And when Dalembert will be ready to go is anyone's guess.

Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala are good to go. Miller will be a safe mid-round fantasy pick, while Iguodala will go in the second round in almost all drafts. The shooting guard job is still up for grabs, but Louis Williams appears to have won the job with a great preseason, while Rodney Carney is also in the running. Reggie Evans could lead the league in rebounding, but he is the true definition of a one-cat player. Smith becomes a serious sleeper with Dalembert's status up in the air, and might be a good guy to blow a last-round pick on if you're thin at center.

Projected starting five: PG Andre Miller, SG Louis Williams, SF Andre Iguodala, PF Reggie Evans, C Samuel Dalembert/Jason Smith

Phoenix Suns

There's not much to say about the Suns. Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire may all go in the first round in your draft, while Raja Bell and Grant Hill should have some value as well. Hill's health is always a question, which gives hope for Leandro Barbosa to have another big year. Barbosa should also have a real shot at winning the Sixth-Man award this year. I'm not sold on Amare's knee holding up for the whole season, but then again, it's tough to find centers who aren't already banged up. Regardless of his knee problems, Amare is worth a first-round pick.

Projected starting five: PG Steve Nash, SG Grant Hill, SF Raja Bell, PF Shawn Marion, C Amare Stoudemire

Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers are already worried about Brandon Roy's heel and it would not be surprising to see him go under the knife this season. Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack are in a battle royale for the starting point guard job, but Jack looked great running the second team with Travis Outlaw in their last game, so I think Blake has the edge. Martell Webster's strong preseason play has won him the small forward job, so Outlaw becomes a deep-sleeper who will still be a popular late pick in leagues. Channing Frye hasn't looked great thus far, but should get it going, while LaMarcus Aldridge is my pick for breakout candidate of the year. I've got him in three drafts already and his dual eligibility at PF and C add to his value. He's got a toe injury right now, but hopefully it's not serious. James Jones, Raef LaFrentz and Joel Przybilla could all have some value this season as well.

Projected starting five: PG Steve Blake/Jarrett Jack, SG Brandon Roy, SF Martell Webster, PF Channing Frye, C LaMarcus Aldridge

Sacramento Kings

The Kings' starting five is healthy and fairly stable. Ron Artest has complained of a gimpy knee, but has played through it. Brad Miller looks good this preseason, has lost weight and rededicated himself. He'll be backed up by Mikki Moore, who will also play some PF along with Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who is still trying to come back from knee surgery. I don't think the Kings are going to be a great team in reality, but Mike Bibby, new face-of-the-franchise Kevin Martin, Artest and Miller should all be quality fantasy players this season.

Projected starting five: PG Mike Bibby, SG Kevin Martin, SF Ron Artest, PF Kenny Thomas, C Brad Miller

San Antonio Spurs

Manu Ginobili will likely come off the bench again for the Spurs this year, and along with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, has solid fantasy value. The Spurs are a good example as to why fantasy and reality don't mix. The Spurs really only have three solid fantasy players, yet flirt with championships every year. Anyway, Duncan is a potential first-round pick, while Parker and Manu should got somewhere after the third round. Parker has just returned from taking an extended rest after a busy summer, as he wanted to work on his conditioning, strength and get his ankle fully healthy after injuring it for France this summer.

Projected starting five: PG Tony Parker, SG Michael Finley, SF Bruce Bowen, PF Tim Duncan, C Fabricio Oberto

Seattle Sonics

Delonte West has been banged up early and appears to be locked into a bench role for now in Seattle. Wally Szczerbiak appears to finally be over his ankle and knee issues, and should make for a nice late-round value pick. Robert Swift is back and playing well, but his surgically repaired knee may keep him out of back-to-back games all year, as well as several others. P.J. Carlesimo doesn't want to play Nick Collison at center, but may not have another choice, so expect to see Collison and Chris Wilcox on the court together in every game. The Luke Ridnour – Earl Watson battle is as tense as ever, as they continue to hurt each other's value. Kevin Durant has been going in the fourth or fifth round in mock drafts and will be the opening-night shooting guard. Damien Wilkins could be a starter this season, but should have a little value even if he comes off the bench. He's not draftable in standard leagues, but might be worth a waiver-wire pickup down the line. Rookie Jeff Green is playing well, but probably isn't worth drafting in most leagues at this point.

Projected starting five: PG Luke Ridnour/Earl Watson, SG Kevin Durant, SF Damien Wilkins/Wally Szczerbiak, PF Chris Wilcox, C Robert Swift/Nick Collison

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors should offer plenty of fantasy help for your team, from T.J. Ford at point guard, Anthony Parker at shooting guard, Chris Bosh at power forward and Andrea Bargnani at center. Bargnani is going to hit a ton of threes this year, helping to make up for his lock of boards. Jorge Garbajosa is probably going to come off the bench, but could have some value since he should qualify at center in your league. Bosh is still not healthy, suffering from a knee injury this preseason to go along with his foot injury from last year. Bosh is too good to fall too far in your draft, but the combination of injuries he has this early are certainly a little scary. Parker hasn't been great in the preseason, but I suspect he'll be fine once the season gets going. Carlos Delfino has probably played himself out of the competition for the small forward job, as I expect Jason Kapono to beat out Joey Graham for the job. And don't forget about Jose Calderon if you need a point guard late. He won't start, but should be a decent third point guard for your team.

Projected starting five: PG T.J. Ford, SG Anthony Parker, SF Jason Kapono, PF Chris Bosh, C Andrea Bargnani

Utah Jazz

I love Deron Williams this season and he should be targeted in the second round of all drafts. Ronnie Brewer has won the shooting guard job with strong preseason play and is a deep sleeper, while Andrei Kirilenko appears to be on the verge of a comeback. Mehmet Okur has a foot injury that could bother him for sometime, so beware of that. Carlos Boozer looks strong after missing much of camp attending to his ill son, but should have second-round value if he can stay healthy this season.

Projected starting five: PG Deron Williams, SG Ronnie Brewer, SF Andrei Kirilenko, PF Carlos Boozer, C Mehmet Okur

Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas had his knee drained last week and looked much better on Sunday night. Caron Butler should be back at full strength after suffering a broken had last year, while Antawn Jamison will try to stay healthy and post some big numbers again. He's back from an ankle injury. Brendan Haywood should get a lot of minutes at center, but Andray Blatche is going to push him for minutes and is another big-time sleeper pick this year.

Projected starting five: PG Gilbert Arenas, SG DeShawn Stevenson, SF Caron Butler, PF Antawn Jamison, C Brendan Haywood

[Hache Man]

Is Peja a good play in Week 1?
Each Friday, Rotoworld will be posting Bench/Start to give all you fantasy owners a few final insights before setting your lineups for the week ahead. Recommendations will be made based upon the number of games played in the upcoming week, the strength of a team's schedule, and any circumstances which could affect fantasy performance (i.e. injuries, home/away, suspensions, position battles, recent history, match-ups, etc). The most obvious and most important factor here is the number of games played; accordingly, each column will kick off with lists showing how many games each team plays that week. Week 1 of the NBA schedule offers a six-way tie for fewest games played (two), while only one team has four contests scheduled. Are you the owner of both Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams? Read on and see why you are favored to start your fantasy season with a glorious, undefeated 1-0 record.

The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is still available and includes a schedule grid – An invaluable tool for those of you in weekly lineup leagues. Just click on the link to order. The Guide includes everything you will need to have a good draft night, although it won't buy the pizza and beer.

TWO games played: Hawks, Celtics, Bobcats, Clippers, Grizzlies, Knicks

THREE games played: Bulls, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, T-Wolves, Bucks, Nets, Hornets, Magic, Sixers, Suns, Blazers, Kings, Spurs, Sonics, Raptors, Wizards

FOUR games played: Jazz

Week 1 is probably as tough a schedule as owners will face this year. Knowing who to start and who to bench can quickly devolve into a blind man's game of pin-the-tail-on-the-Turkoglu. Many fantasy stalwarts have switched teams this season, while other players simply find themselves adapting to new roles. Rookies are tantalizing owners with their boundless potential, and head coaches are still waffling over who is going to start at shooting guard on opening night. Mix in a heaping handful of season-opening suspensions and 'day-to-day' injuries, and fantasy owners are hard-pressed to make sense of it all. The good news? Every owner in your league faces the same dilemma, but at least you have Rotoworld.com to help sort it all out. With that said, let's examine the first group of Bench/Start recommendations for the 2007-2008 NBA season.

BENCH

Rajon Rondo – The Celtics only play two games this week (Was, @ TOR), which makes all players beyond their starry trio (Garnett, Allen, and Pierce, or G-A-P for short) obligatory bench-warmers. Rondo is a huge question mark coming into this season—all anyone can nail down is that he will challenge for the league lead in steals. Rondo's scoring, rebounding, and particularly his play-making abilities are all virtual unknowns. Will he evolve into a solid fantasy option, free to roam the court and create havoc while G-A-P draws all the opposing teams' attention? It seems very likely that he will. But fantasy owners should wait until the Celts have a more favorable schedule before testing out their new, enigmatic point guard.

Peja Stojakovic/ Morris Peterson – Slated to start for the Hornets at small forward and shooting guard, respectively, these two deserve intense skepticism in Week 1. While Mo Pete may not be the worst fill-in for Josh Howard or Stephen Jackson, he is no fantasy lock. In Toronto last year, Peterson struggled early and often, ultimately posting career-low minutes per game and points scored. The move to New Orleans should eventually bring him greater success, but Peterson had an extremely unconvincing preseason, and he will take a while to gel within the Hornets' offense (even if guys like Bobby Jackson and Rasual Butler don't steal all of his playing time first). Stojakovic, meanwhile, is returning after a frustrating year that ended abruptly in back surgery. While he seems to be progressing, his playing time will be limited early on, and he too showed plenty of rust this preseason. Try to resist these two Hornets' wingmen, at least for Week 1.

The Knicks – In a week with only two games played (@ CLE, Min), what becomes of the Knicks' fantasy value? It disappears quicker than Isiah Thomas' credibility in a Manhattan court room. To warrant starting, Stephon Marbury would have to seriously outplay similar-tier point guards Jameer Nelson, Randy Foye, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby and T.J. Ford, all of whom play three games this week. Even Raymond Felton, who starts two games for the Bobcats, should outplay Marbury this week. The Knicks' ballyhooed big men, Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry, both suffer from crippling cases of three-dimensionality —the bad variety, they offer nothing beyond FG%, points and rebounds— and cannot be relied upon in a two-game week. Jamal Crawford is streakier than your windshield and in the first two games of the past two seasons, he shot a combined 10-of-46 from the field. Bottom line: if possible, avoid the Knicks in Week 1.

The Sonics* – The asterisk here is Kevin Durant. If his ankle heals and he is ready for opening night, then obviously he deserves to start for your team. The Sonics have three games in Week 1 (@ Den, Pho, @ Lac) and typically guys like Luke Ridnour, Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison would be worth consideration for a fantasy start. But after the Sonics' off-season overhaul, there are too many unknowns to reliably play any Sonic other than a healthy Kevin Durant. Ridnour is locked in a battle with Earl Watson for time at point guard. Damien Wilkins, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Jeff Green are all competing for time at either shooting guard or small forward. Then there is Robert Swift, whose time at center will, at least for a while, be undercut by the Sonics' slew of capable big men. Watch the Sonics rotation very closely, but avoid using these players until their roles are more clearly defined.

Power (Forward) Struggles – In Chicago, Tyrus Thomas is favored to emerge as the Bulls' starting power forward, but with veteran Joe Smith and rookie Joakim Noah right behind him, there is no guarantee of his immediate fantasy value. Injuries have thrown doubt on the status of Lamar Odom, Nene, Nenad Krstic, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and position battles abound. Among teams with competition for minutes at power forward are the Bucks (Jianlian/Villanueva), Grizzlies (Swift/Milicic), Rockets (Scola/Hayes), Clippers (Thomas/Thornton/Patterson), Pistons (McDyess/Maxiell), Nuggets (Nene/K-Mart), Kings (K. Thomas/Moore/Abdur-Rahim), and the aforementioned Bulls. The players involved aren't doomed to fantasy mediocrity. They just need time to figure out their roles, at which point the good players should separate themselves from the bad. But first, expect things to get ugly.

Point Guard Platoons – In fantasy football, RBBC is the acronym for dreaded time-share situations known as Running Back By Committee. Fantasy basketball, at least in the first phase of this new season, seems to be suffering from a severe PGP infection; Point Guard Platoons have infiltrated the backcourt of at least eight known NBA teams. The Sonics, Blazers, Grizzlies, Rockets, Hawks, and to a lesser extent, the Lakers, Clippers and Heat all suffer from some form of Point Guard Platoon. At this stage in the outbreak, there is too much risk in playing a member of an identified PGP. Steve Blake or Jarrett Jack? Damon Stoudamire, Kyle Lowry, or Mike Conley? Earl Watson, Luke Ridnour, or what about Delonte West? As a wise owner once observed, a minutes share is a Week 1 loss.

Center By Committee – CBCs, genetic cousins of PGPs, cause even greater damage to owners' nervous systems because healthy, quality centers are harder to find than similar point guards. Obvious time-share situations hamper the value of centers for the Sonics, Heat, Lakers and Spurs. Other teams have incumbent centers facing decreased playing time in favor of more youthful, or else smaller, lineups. Examples include Zaza Pachulia (here comes Al Horford), Primoz Brezec (Emeka Okafor could shift to center at some point), and Brendan Haywood (Etan Thomas should return eventually, while Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Pecherov will see backup minutes immediately). If you are unlucky enough to be fielding one or more questionable centers this week, take heart; each week, strategies change and injuries occur, just keep your eyes on the waiver wire and your scrubs on the bench.

START

Pau Gasol – Eager to see their first-round draft choice in action, fantasy owners will be ignoring the Grizzlies' measly two-game schedule for Week 1 (San, Ind) and starting Pau Gasol. The move is a wise one, since Gasol is healthy and surrounded by a deeper, more potent lineup than the Grizzlies have had in a very long time. Always a proficient passer, watch for Gasol to go off this year and once again challenge Boris Diaw and Brad Miller as the assist leader among centers. Despite having two games, Gasol has more upside than three-game centers like Andrew Bynum, Robert Swift, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, or Chris Kaman at this point in the season.

Ronnie Brewer – Brewer has received Jerry Sloan's qualified seal of starter approval, and it is hard to imagine Sloan changing his mind in favor of Morris Almond or Gordan Giricek. The fact that the Jazz play four games this week upgrades Brewer from tentative borderline status; keep your expectations reasonable, but start Brewer with confidence in Week 1.

Drew Gooden – If you drafted Gooden, there is no better time to start him than right now. Anderson Varejao remains unsigned, and will likely remain so unless the Cavaliers agree to grossly overpay him. In his absence, Gooden is truly vital to the Cavs and will get plenty of minutes in this week's three games, all against weak defensive teams: New York, Phoenix, and Golden State. Is Gooden still wearing his silly, reverse soul-patch haircut this season? No. But even if he was, you should overlook it and start him anyway, before the bulky Brazilian returns and all you can say is 'nuts'.

Devin Harris – The Devin Harris experiment officially kicks off in Week 1. The Mavericks have stated flatly that they are trying to develop Harris into a top-tier point guard this season. In aid of this goal, Jason Terry has become a sixth man so that Jerry Stackhouse (or Trenton Hassell, Eddie Jones), whose game compliments Harris, can start at shooting guard. Now, Harris has a long way to go, particularly in the assist-to-turnover area, before he can be considered a top point guard. The Mavericks will have patience with the young man, but it is conceivable that at some point Terry will be asked to shift back and buoy the point. In short, you should take advantage of the Mavericks' dedication to playing Harris and only Harris at point guard, because you never know what Week 2 will bring.

Andrew Bogut – For the past two years, Bogut has been on an island, surrounded by talented guards and small forwards but lacking any real complimentary players in the Bucks' frontcourt. The young center has, accordingly, progressed slowly the past few years, but he has indeed progressed. This season, with the addition of Yi Jianlian and the returned health of Charlie Villanueva, the Bucks have two power forwards capable of stretching defenses and freeing up the middle for Bogut's burgeoning post game. Look for modest statistical improvements throughout the season, but don't be afraid to run him out there as a solid starter in a three game (@ Orl, @ Cha, Chi) Week 1. He's got a wrist injury, so make sure he's playing next week, but the early indications are that he will play in Game 1.

Reggie Evans – Evans, most likely, is lurking on your league's waiver wire this very moment, but if you need a quick fill-in power forward, this is a great week to use him. The Sixers don't have anybody to challenge Evans for minutes at power forward, so he will have more rebounds than a season of Melrose Place. What makes Evans a likely starter is the injury to center Samuel Dalembert; more minutes equal more rebounds, so use the big bruiser now, before Dalembert gets back and squashes his limited upside. Evans is a little dinged up right now with knee and thumb issues, so monitor his health this weekend.

Grant Hill – Another use-him-or-lose-him candidate is the injury-prone veteran and first-year Sun, Grant Hill. Hill is the Suns' starting shooting guard, although his minutes will be somewhat limited by the presence of super-sub Leandro Barbosa. As a starter in the Suns' dynamic offense, Hill will be getting plenty of offensive opportunities, and he is talented enough to make them count. What owners can't rely on is Hill remaining healthy for more than a couple of weeks in a row, so start him right away and hope that the back spasms which gripped him in the preseason don't become a regular-season concern.

Francisco Garcia – Yet another opportunistic weekly play, Garcia stands to benefit from the seven-game suspension of Ron Artest. Already in line for big minutes, Garcia has enough fantasy versatility that owners might decide to gamble and keep playing him even after Artest's return. But make no mistake, if you own Garcia, this is the time to see what he can do for your team.

Well, that wraps up the first Bench/Start of the new season. As you can see, Week 1 is full of chances to be opportunistic, to use nothing more than logic and daring to propel you into a quick six-way tie for first place in your league. Check back every Friday for more advice on setting your lineup, and have fun this week, in fantasy and reality.

Questions or comments? Angry, semi-literate diatribes? Direct them all to ryanknaus@gmail.com and bestill thy restless soul.

[Hache Man]

Say it ain't so, Mike
Here are the draft results of one of my main leagues - League Freak – a 12-team league run by NBA TV's Rick Kamla.

Eight categories, no turnovers, head-to-head, no playoffs. We only draft 120 total players, start six each week (C, F, F, G, G, Flex) and the best record wins. I am the defending champ, but am not sure I put together the horses to win it this year. Add in the fact that Mike Bibby just went down for a couple months, and my challenge just became that much more difficult.
dallasmavericks.com
My plan was going well early, as I snagged Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Gerald Wallace, but when Kamla took both Michael Redd and Ray Allen in the third and fourth rounds, it prompted me to start reaching for threes. When I won last year as a league rookie, the team was anchored by Tim Duncan and Elton Brand, surrounded by solid wing players, so I went with 'bigs' in rounds 1 and 2 again this year. While almost everyone is preaching point guards this year, solid big men are simply tougher to come by than point guards – especially in small leagues. In a different draft on Thursday night, I landed point guards Jameer Nelson and Jason Williams in the 10th and 13th rounds. Those are two starting point guards, one of which has solid upside. You don't need me to tell you who the big men are that you'll see available in those rounds, but say hello to Brendan Haywood, Stromile Swift, Jorge Garbajosa and Mark Blount!
utahjazz.com
Before you check out the League Freak draft, check out the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide, which is still available and has all the tools you need to dominate your draft. It doesn't have the ability to smack you in the face and tell you not to trade your first-round pick to your buddy for his second- and third-rounders, but it may give you some help in keeping your head together when things don't go as you had planned at your draft. And if it did have the ability to slap you in the face before you take Mike Dunleavy in the sixth round, it would cost a lot more money. Just click on the link to order or take a sneak preview.
sacramentokings.com
Anyway, here's how that draft ended up.

Round 1

1 Mike - LeBron James (F CLE)
2 Eric - Kobe Bryant (G LAL)
3 Paul - Gilbert Arenas (G WAS)
4 Jason & Paul - Kevin Garnett (F BOS)
5 James - Amare Stoudemire (C PHO)
6 Josh - Dirk Nowitzki (F DAL)
7 David - Shawn Marion (F PHO)
8 Alexander - Dwight Howard* (C ORL)
9 Chris - Steve Nash (G PHO)
10 Rick - Yao Ming (C HOU)
11 Mike & Noah - Dwyane Wade (G MIA)
12 Tim - Andre Iguodala (F PHI)

No real surprises here, although I was grateful that Howard fell to No. 8. He was easily my No. 1 target, and had he been taken I may have gone Pau Gasol, Yao Ming or Shawn Marion with my first pick. Kamla had stated on television that he was going 'big-big' to start the draft (mocking my strategy from last season), and he stuck with the plan, taking Yao at No. 10. Wade was taken at No. 11, as usual, but I'm still not sold on him being worth a pick in the first two rounds in non-playoff leagues. I don't think he'll play until December or January.

Round 2

13 Chris Paul (G NO)
14 Jason Kidd (G NJ)
15 Tim Duncan (F SA)
16 Josh Smith (F ATL)
17 Pau Gasol* (C MEM)
18 Vince Carter (G NJ)
19 Deron Williams (G UTA)
20 Rashard Lewis (F ORL)
21 Chris Bosh (F TOR)
22 Tracy McGrady (G HOU)
23 Al Jefferson (F MIN)
24 Allen Iverson (G DEN)

My early plan for Round 2 was Josh Smith, Tim Duncan or Al Jefferson. That would secure my status in blocks and give me two rock-solid bigs to build around. However, Smith went just before I picked and Kamla grabbed Duncan with the third pick of the round. But much to my surprise, Pau Gasol was still sitting there so I snagged him. I hadn't planned on taking him here because I thought there was no chance he'd still be on the board. Things were certainly looking up at this point. As you can see, Jefferson went late second, as his stock in fantasy land continues to rise by the day. Had he been the best big available at my pick, I would have taken him too.

Round 3

25 Carlos Boozer (F UTA)
26 Joe Johnson (G ATL)
27 Raymond Felton (G CHA)
28 Chauncey Billups (G DET)
29 Paul Pierce (G BOS)
30 Carmelo Anthony (F DEN)
31 Jermaine O'Neal (F IND)
32 Gerald Wallace* (F CHA)
33 Caron Butler (F WAS)
34 Michael Redd (G MIL)
35 Tyson Chandler (C NO)
36 Luol Deng (F CHI)

It's hard to say that taking Gerald Wallace in this type of league in the third round was a mistake, but I was counting on getting Michael Redd or Ray Allen on the way back. Mr. Kamla made sure that wouldn't happen, taking Redd here and then Allen on the way back before I would pick again. All the Round 3 picks were solid I thought, although Tyson Chandler should not normally go in the third. The fact that Carmelo Anthony was still there at No. 30 was surprising to me, and Josh got a huge steal.

Round 4

37 Baron Davis (G GS)
38 Antawn Jamison (F WAS)
39 Ray Allen (G BOS)
40 Marcus Camby (C DEN)
41 Ben Gordon* (G CHI)
42 Tony Parker (G SA)
43 Mehmet Okur (C UTA)
44 Kevin Martin (G SAC)
45 Kevin Durant (F SEA)
46 Jason Richardson (G CHA)
47 Emeka Okafor (C CHA)
48 Kirk Hinrich (G CHI)

I had a 3-point crisis on my hands, which probably negatively influenced my next several picks. That said, there's nothing wrong with Ben Gordon in the fourth, especially if you need the best 3-point shooter available. Maybe Jason Richardson would have been better, but we'll have to wait to find out.

Round 5

49 Zach Randolph (F NY)
50 Mike Miller (F MEM)
51 Ben Wallace (C CHI)
52 Mo Williams (G MIL)
53 LaMarcus Aldridge (F POR)
54 Brandon Roy (G POR)
55 David West (F NO)
56 Mike Bibby* (G SAC)
57 Ron Artest (F SAC)
58 Andre Miller (G PHI)
59 Josh Howard (F DAL)
60 Jason Terry (G DAL)

Round 5 rolled around and I was still lacking threes and a point guard. I felt fortunate to get Bibby, who has looked good in the preseason and offers exactly what I felt I needed here. I also thought he was on his way to a nice comeback season, and felt great about this pick until 24 hours later when it was revealed that he would be out for 6-10 weeks with torn ligaments in his thumb. Ouch. I guess Andre Miller or Ricky Davis would have been a better pick, but it didn't look that way at the time.

Round 6

61 Manu Ginobili (G SA)
62 Al Harrington (F GS)
63 Ricky Davis (G MIN)
64 Corey Maggette (F LAC)
65 Danny Granger* (F IND)
66 Leandro Barbosa (G PHO)
67 T.J. Ford (G TOR)
68 Jamaal Tinsley (G IND)
69 Rasheed Wallace (F DET)
70 Lamar Odom (F LAL)
71 Monta Ellis (G GS)
72 Andrew Bogut (C MIL)

I liked Granger here and still do, although he may not have been the best player for my team. He was the best player with the most upside sitting there, and I still have no problem with DG in Round 6.

Round 7

73 Richard Jefferson (F NJ)
74 Andrea Bargnani (F TOR)
75 Stephon Marbury (G NY)
76 Randy Foye (G MIN)
77 Andrei Kirilenko (F UTA)
78 Marvin Williams (F ATL)
79 Eddy Curry (C NY)
80 Raja Bell* (G PHO)
81 Rajon Rondo (G BOS)
82 Rudy Gay (G MEM)
83 Shaquille O'Neal (C MIA)
84 Andris Biedrins (C GS)

I was all set to take Andrea Bargnani or Andrei Kirilenko here, but it obviously wasn't meant to be. Once they fell off the board I felt like I still needed threes, even though I probably didn't with Bibby and Gordon on board. My plan was to get Rudy Gay in Round 8, but once again I was foiled. And in hindsight, I'm probably going to need Raja Bell's threes with the loss of Bibby.

Round 8

85 Ruben Patterson (F LAC)
86 Boris Diaw (F PHO)
87 Al Horford (F ATL)
88 Stephen Jackson (G GS)
89 Richard Hamilton* (G DET)
90 Charlie Villanueva (F MIL)
91 Peja Stojakovic (G NO)
92 Devin Harris (G DAL)
93 Jameer Nelson (G ORL)
94 Brad Miller (C SAC)
95 Larry Hughes (G CLE)
96 David Lee (F NY)

I didn't necessarily want Richard Hamilton here, but he should never have still been sitting there in Round 8. I was strong on the front line and Hamilton was the best player on the board and a guard. Done.

Round 9

97 Mike Conley (G MEM)
98 Samuel Dalembert (C PHI)
99 Channing Frye (F POR)
100 Darko Milicic (F MEM)
101 Paul Millsap (F UTA)
102 Chris Kaman (C LAC)
103 J.R. Smith (G DEN)
104 Mike Dunleavy* (G IND)
105 Chris Wilcox (F SEA)
106 Jamal Crawford (G NY)
107 Tayshaun Prince (F DET)
108 Jarrett Jack (G POR)

I won this league last year by surrounding Duncan and Brand with wing men who contribute in most categories. Dunleavy is set to get a ton of minutes for the Pacers this season, is shooting much better and has the potential to be a multi-cat stud. I'm making no guarantees about him, and wasn't crazy about adding him to another fantasy team, but compared to some of the other picks in this round, I think his upside is encouraging.

Round 10

109 Corey Brewer (F MIN)
110 Cuttino Mobley (G LAC)
111 Elton Brand (F LAC)
112 Nenad Krstic (C NJ)
113 Al Thornton (F LAC)
114 Charlie Bell (G MIL)
115 Jeff Green (F SEA)
116 Tim Thomas (F LAC)
117 Acie Law* (G ATL)
118 Wally Szczerbiak (F SEA)
119 Jason Maxiell (F DET)
120 Kyle Korver (F PHI)
www.houstonrockets.ws
I was still lacking in point guards and Law has as much upside as any in the league. The really cool thing about this league is that the waiver-wire process is – well – there isn't one. It's a free-for-all, meaning I can cut and add players at will, with no limitations. None of the players on these rosters are safe if they were taken after the sixth round, so I'll sit on Law for a week or two and see what happens.
indianapacers.com
It's tough to say how my team looks this early, but I am clearly competitive in Points, Blocks, Boards, Field Goal Percentage, Threes and Steals. Free Throw Percentage is an issue, as are Assists, but I had the same problem last year and won. Hopefully you didn't get burned on Bibby like I did, and good luck in your drafts this week!

[lupus]

@ Hache Man

System drafts for my team Ricky Davis.
He was traded to Miami.
What do You think about him?
Keep him or trade?
In my opinion his stats will go down (Wade is nr 1, Shaq)
My team:

1.	(7)	Steve Nash	PG
2.	(18)	Chris Paul	PG
3.	(31)	Al Jefferson	PF,C
4.	(42)	Jason Richardson	SG,SF
5.	(55)	Lamar Odom	SF,PF
6.	(66)	Ricky Davis	SG,SF
7.	(79)	Nene Hilario	PF,C
8.	(90)	Chris Kaman	C
9.	(103)	Andrew Bynum	C
10.	(114)	Luis Scola	SF,PF
11.	(127)	Jorge Garbajosa	PF,C
12.	(138)	Devin Harris	PG
13.	(151)	Al Thornton	SF,PF
14.	(162)	Damien Wilkins	SG,SF
15.	(175)	Ryan Gomes	SF,PF

[Hache Man]

Originally Posted by lupus

@ Hache Man

System drafts for my team Ricky Davis.
He was traded to Miami.
What do You think about him?
Keep him or trade?
In my opinion his stats will go down (Wade is nr 1, Shaq)
My team:

I believe you're definitely right lupus.

Even if he's in the starting lineup, as you said, Wade, Shaq, and even Udonis Haslem who is supposed to get much more time on the court, are going to get their opportunities. So I do agree, his value has dropped.....

[lupus]

And what about j-rich?
Injuries, injuries, injuries... :p

PS My team sucks.

[Hache Man]

Daily Dose Preview
Conventional wisdom says that it's a day too early for the first Daily Dose of the year, but I couldn't help myself. This is my favorite column to write and has garnered great response from readers who don't have time to dig into the box scores every night. The goal of the column will differ a bit from years past, as we'll hit on the top stories from the previous night's action, and then give tips on position battles, free agent pick ups and try to give a concise synopsis of what you missed in the previous night's action (if anything). We probably won't go team-by-team every morning this year, as it is just too much. However, we will hit on all the information you need to know.

Rob Blackstien will be back to handle the Dose on Thursdays, while I'll bring it to you on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. No Dose on the weekends, at least for now.

Today's format is a little different than what this column will look each day, but here's a preview of Tuesday night's action.

There are three games on Tuesday night to kick off the season.

Portland @ San Antonio 8 pm
Houston @ Lakers 10:30 pm
Utah @ Golden State 10:30 pm

Portland @ San Antonio

There is nothing, and I mean nothing, you need to know on the San Antonio side of things. It's the same team as last year and everyone is fairly healthy. Make sure Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are in your lineup for three games this week.

As for Portland, the starting five should be: PG Jarrett Jack, SG Brandon Roy, SF Martell Webster, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C Joel Przybilla.

I thought Steve Blake might win the PG job, but Jack is officially the starter for now. You guys know I'm high on Aldridge, and I just hope he stays healthy this season. Same goes for Roy. He's probably going to need surgery on his heel at some point, but he's hoping to make it through the season without going under the knife. I'm going to put him at 50/50 to get that accomplished, but it appears that there's a decent chance he'll at least miss some games with the injury. Hopefully he is healthy enough to go tonight, and I think he will be. However, keep in mind he missed his last preseason game with the heel injury.

Houston @ Lakers

News out of this game is going to focus mostly around the fact Kobe Bryant appears to be on the verge of being traded. He could go to Chicago or Washington, but then again, he is being pursued by every team in the league. From a fantasy standpoint, owners just have to hope he plays tonight. All indications are that he will go, but his attitude and wrist have to make his owners a little nervous. I'm one of them, and I'll rest easier once I see him in the starting five. Phil Jackson and Charles Barkley called him out on Monday, but you just have to assume that he's going to give it his all against TMac and company. www.houstonrockets.ws

The Lakers' starting five should be PG Derek Fisher, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Luke Walton, PF Ronny Turiaf, C Andrew Bynum.

It will be interesting to see how Fisher looks, along with Kobe and Turiaf. Turiaf is a serious sleeper, but the fact he's really limited on the offensive end of things makes him a risky pickup. Would you be surprised to see Kobe come out tonight and drop 50 on the Rockets just to shut people up? Nope, me either. And many of us are relying on Bynum to take some major strides this year. We should know where he stands after two or three games.

The Rockets will start: PG Rafer Alston, SG Tracy McGrady, SF Shane Battier, PF Luis Scola, C Yao Ming.

The big news out of Houston is that Steve Francis isn't even in the rotation – Ouch. He struggled to learn Rick Adelman's offense and is now paying the price (along with his fantasy owners). He says he didn't sign with Houston to be a spectator on the bench, and maybe he'll study the playbook over the next week and work his way into the mix. As of now, make sure Francis isn't in your starting lineup.

Anxious Scola owners will be keyed in to see how he performs, while Alston and Mike James will also be watched closely by owners. With Francis not even in the rotation, Alston looks like a safe play. Battier is one of the most underrated fantasy players around and if you have a weak spot on your roster, you should give him a look if he went undrafted in your league. Luther Head is also a guy to keep an eye on here, as are Bonzi Wells and James.

Utah @ Golden State

The Jazz have a happy Andrei Kirilenko on hand, and I sense he's in for a solid comeback season. I own him in a few leagues and was sad to miss out on him in a couple others. The guy is at least going to rack it up in steals, blocks and boards, and could be in line for a few 5x5 lines again this season.
utahjazz.com
Ronnie Brewer has won the SG job and here's the starting five in Utah: PG Deron Williams, SG Brewer, SF Andrei Kirilenko, PF Carlos Boozer, C Mehmet Okur. Not many question marks there, and with four games this week, all five players should be owned (and probably starting) in your league – Especially with four games this week. Matt Harpring is a game-time decision, but if you own him, check out your waiver wire for a player who has two knees and some upside.

The Warriors' lineup is somewhat of a mystery. By my count, Don Nelson has changed his mind at least five times thus far, and it's conceivable that he could do it again tonight. As of now, here is what I know.

Stephen Jackson is suspended and won't be playing, and Al Harrington is slated for an early bench role. indianapacers.com

Baron Davis and Monta Ellis are starting in the backcourt, while Andris Biedrins is the starting center. Last I heard, Mickael Pietrus, who is not a power forward, will start at power forward, while Matt Barnes or Kelenna Azubuike will start at small forward. I'm guessing Azubuike gets the nod. Marco Belinelli is a rookie and that does not bode well for consistency under Nellie – Especially after Ellis went nuts in his last preseason game. Davis, Ellis and Biedrins are safe fantasy plays, while Azubuike, Barnes and Harrington are also possibilities. I don't think I'd be brave enough to start Belinelli this week, even though he sounded like 'the man' a few weeks ago.

The bottom line is that Nellie is going to tinker with this lineup all year long. Every player mentioned will have value at some point, but for now, Davis, Ellis, Biedrins and probably Harrington are the safe fantasy plays this week. In deep leagues, Azubuike and Barnes are possibilities as well. We'll see. Just beware that the Warriors are going to cause fantasy headaches all year, with the occasional sweet dream thrown in as well.

News and Notes

It sounds like Kevin Durant (ankle - Sonics) and Tyrus Thomas (foot - Bulls) will play in their openers, although Thomas may be coming off the bench. I have no idea if Ben Wallace (ankle - Bulls) will play or not. We're going to be scouring the web to come up with that answer on Tuesday, but my guess is he's a game-time decision.

The Sonics appear to be ready to start Earl Watson (PG), Damien Wilkins (SF) and Nick Collison (C), so plan accordingly. Don't start Luke Ridnour this week, as he appears to be third on the PG depth chart until he loses his protective mask in two weeks. Delonte West will back up Watson, while Wally Szczerbiak should get plenty of run off the bench, and will likely start if Durant can't go on Wednesday. Wilkins looks like an excellent fantasy start in Week 1, while Collison should be a solid second fantasy center.

Jarrett Jack and Joel Przybilla are in Portland's starting lineup, While Randy Foye (knee) is sounding doubtful for the Wolves' opener. The Pacers will likely be without Jermaine O'Neal (knee) and Troy Murphy (Achilles) on opening night, meaning Jeff Foster and Ike Diogu deserve a look, and Linas Kleiza is an interesting sleeper pick for the Nuggets this week.

Orien @@@@@@ looks like the starting point guard for Sacramento, but I think John Salmons should have a little more value. Quincy Douby and Francisco Garcia also appear to have some value, but I'd rather go with Salmons or @@@@@@ over those two. Kenny Thomas should be a nice play this week at PF as well.

Oleksiy Pecherov is out for the Wizards, which should mean that Andray Blatche is assured of decent minutes off the bench, making him a solid 3-game sleeper in deep leagues this week. Speaking of power forwards, Udonis Haslem should be an excellent option for the injured Heat right now.

Yi Jianlian and Desmond Mason have been named starters for the Bucks. I'm still thinking Charlie Villanueva may have more value than Yi, and Bobby Simmons will be an interesting fantasy option once he's healthy, as Mason didn't exactly tear it up in the preseason. dallasmavericks.com

[Hache Man]

Start me up!
Kobe Bryant showed up to play and dropped 45 points on the Rockets in Tuesday's opener. All was not well in Kobe-land, as he hit just hit just 13-of-32 shots and 18-of-27 free throws to go along with five turnovers. The free throw shooting was completely out of character, and I'm guessing it was simply the stress of what he's been going through over the past four months. But owners have to pleased by the fact he played and put up big numbers. There's not much you can do if you own Kobe in your fantasy league other than run him out there every night. If he's with the Lakers, we already know what kind of numbers he's going to put up. If he gets traded, he immediately becomes the No. 1 option for that team.

The two concerns I have with Kobe are:

1. If he gets traded, he could miss a game or two in transition to his new team, but there were a few trades last season where players didn't miss a single game.

2. The wrist. Every time his wrist got hit last night he appeared to be in pain. I'm not sure how minor the injury is and it could linger, bothering him for some time. Given the fact his heart is not with the Lakers, an injury that he would normally play through could shut him down right now.

Opening Night

*LaMarcus Aldridge had a very nice game on Tuesday, going for 27 points, three boards, a steal and two blocks on 12-of-19 shooting. He also hit all three of his free throws and so far, so good with my prized big man. It's early, so I'm not going to get too excited about his big game against Tim Duncan, but you have to think last night was a great sign of things to come.

As for big men who are struggling, Channing Frye played just nine minutes and failed to score. I doubt he's completely out of the rotation and it could have just been a "matchup thing." If you own Frye and see someone on waivers you're desperate to pick up, go for it. But if you can hold him for a week or two, we should have a better idea of whether he's locked into being a bust this season.

Martell Webster looks like a solid pickup this season, while Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack could be the new version of Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour.

Don't read too much into Brandon Roy's off night (2-of-10, seven points), but do say a prayer to the fantasy gods that it's not related to his heel injury. And if you need a center and want to pick up Joel Przybilla, it looks like he's going to rack up boards and blocks this year. He was very aggressive last night and looked like a completely different player than the one we saw last season.

The Spurs got their rings last night and a hard-earned win over the Blazers. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, led the way, and Manu's line was fantasy gold for his owners.

*Andrei Kirilenko put up a monster line and it's clear he's back this year. Hopefully you were able to snag him for your fantasy team this year in the sixth or seventh round. I landed him in several leagues, but got sniped in a late draft when he was taken in the fourth. If you happened to combine him with Josh Smith or Gerald Wallace, you should compete in blocks every week without even playing a center.

Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams did what they were supposed to, Ronnie Brewer lived up the early hype with strong shooting and steals, and Paul Millsap nearly posted a double-double off the bench.

Speaking of struggling big men, Mehmet Okur may have played the worst game of his NBA career. He was 0-of-3 with three rebounds, three turnovers and three fouls. I'm guessing a lot of this can be blamed on his foot injury, but if Kirilenko is back, Boozer is in mid-season form and Millsap is going to get it done off the bench, you have to wonder where that leaves Memo? He's still a worthy first center, but there's reason for concern. Just keep in mind that this was one game and he could easily get it turned around with three more games to play this week. If an owner jumps the gun and cuts him in your league, make sure you get there first.

Keeping with the theme of disappointing big men, Andris Biedrins has played better games than his 1-of-4, four-point performance last night. He did have nine boards and a couple blocks, so all was not lost.

Baron Davis posted a monster line of 25 points, four rebounds, 10 assists, five steals and two blocks. I'm still not sure how he didn't hit a three in this one, but it's true. As for Don Nelson's claims that Davis would see less than 30 minutes per game, chalk it up as another white lie in a long list of white lies from Nellie. Baron played 36 minutes last night, even staying in the game when it was out of reach.

Mickael Pietrus and Monta Ellis were also solid, but I'll say it again. Nellie is going to play head games with us (and his players) all season long. Davis is the only player on this team I fully trust, with Monta Ellis just a step behind. Outside of those two, it's a crap shoot from night to night. Mickael Pietrus and Kelenna Azubuike might be available in your league, and might be worth picking up, but I'm not all that excited about them. At least not yet. And I was very high on Al Harrington until Nellie decided he would rather start a shooting guard at power forward (Pietrus) instead of Harrington. Just put Harrington on your bench until the Warriors get tired of losing and getting killed on the glass. He will become a focal point of this team at some point, just like Azubuike and Pietrus will sputter along once Wacko Jacko comes back.

*Speaking of struggling big men, don't read too much into the bad line from Andrew Bynum. He's never had success against Yao Ming and should be better soon.

And speaking of struggling big men (again), Luis Scola has probably already been dropped in your league after his eight minutes of scoreless action off the bench last night. This one came as a surprise and it will be very interesting to see how he fares in his next game. Some have called for Scola to win ROY, but if he's not going to play for Rick Adelman, he's not going to be winning any awards. Maybe he was being disciplined, as Scola sure looked like the starter in training camp. I'm going to advise to give him another game or two before moving on, but if you have to cut him to pick someone like Ronnie Brewer or Paul Millsap up, feel free.

Rafer Alston didn't look great last night, but Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady did as the Rockets beat the Lakers. Skip should come around, but the scary thing is that if he struggles, Mike James and Steve Francis will be ready to try to steal his job.

Speaking of struggling point guards, Stevie Franchise didn't even get off the bench last night. This is going to get ugly if Adelman's not going to play him. "I definitely didn't come here not to play at all," he said recently. Well so far, he hasn't played at all. If Francis works hard in practice and figures out Adelman's system he could still make a fantasy impact this season. But we probably don't have time to wait for that to happen.

Wednesday Night

Tonight is surprisingly slow for a Wednesday, but then again, it's Halloween. Sixteen teams are in action, with some interesting story lines to follow.

Milwaukee @ Orlando
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Washington @ Indiana
Chicago @ New Jersey
Sacramento @ New Orleans
San Antonio @ Memphis
Dallas @ Cleveland
Seattle @ Denver

Injury Report

Andrew Bogut, Rashard Lewis, Samuel Dalembert, Chris Bosh, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Tyrus Thomas, Jason Kidd, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Brad Miller, Pau Gasol, Kevin Durant, Kenyon Martin, Nene and Marcus Camby are all expected to play tonight.

Some questions remain about Bogut, Dalembert, Miller, Durant, Nene and Camby, but it sounds like they'll all play.

The news is not so good on the following, who range from very doubtful to questionable tonight: Jermaine O'Neal (knee), Troy Murphy (Achilles), Ben Wallace (ankle), Joakim Noah (ankle), David West (ankle), Sasha Pavlovic (conditioning) and Robert Swift (knee).

Tonight's ActionBogut says he'll play through a wrist injury as the Bucks take on the Magic in Orlando. Rashard Lewis still isn't 100 percent, but you have to play him if you own him.

Andre Iguodala will make his debut tonight, while the Sixers should have Samuel Dalembert (foot) in the middle. They're in Toronto, as the Raptors hope to prove that last season wasn't a fluke. Chris Bosh is expected to play through his gimpy knee in this one.

Gilbert Arenas hopes to get his MVP race off to a good start tonight at Indy. Oleksiy Pecherov is out, meaning all the backup center minutes should go to Andray Blatche, who should put up a nice line tonight. If he's available in your league, be ready to pounce on him if he goes off. Brendan Haywood, the starter in the middle, is available in many leagues and should also be watched closely tonight. For the Pacers, Jermaine O'Neal and Troy Murphy sound like long shots, but O'Neal tends to show up when you least expect it. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play tonight, but I get the sense he won't. Either way, Ike Diogu and Jeff Foster should both have a nice night, so I think it was a great call if you somehow have them in your lineup.

The Bulls may be without Ben Wallace tonight due to his lingering ankle injury. He sat out Tuesday's practice and will be a game-time decision. Tyrus Thomas will play, but should come off the bench behind Joe Smith. Have no fear if you own Thomas. He might get off to a slow start this season, but as soon as the swelling returns in Joe Smith's knee (and it's going to), Thomas is going to get the job. I benched Ben Gordon in League Freak this week. He was still a little gimpy in his last preseason game and I figured I'd give him a 2-game week to get fully healthy. The move could backfire on me, as Gordon could light it up tonight. Play him at your own risk. UPDATE: Late news after this column was posted indicates that Big Ben is scheduled to play tonight. Also, Tyrus Thomas worked with the first unit this morning and could be starting over Joe Smith. Either way, Thomas is a fine fantasy play right now.

The Bulls are at New Jersey, where Jason Kidd should be ready to lead his team to a fast start despite being sidelined recently with a back issue.

Brad Miller is expected to play through his gimpy back, but it could flare up on him at any time. Again, I think he's safe, but you never know. Orien @@@@@@ will start at point guard (supposedly), but I still think John Salmons will be the guy to benefit most from Mike Bibby's absence. Francisco Garcia should start in place of Ron Artest and could have some value as well. Quincy Douby is worth keeping an eye on, but he's locked into a bench role, along with Salmons. I guess the Kings could decide to start Salmons over Garcia, but we won't know until the game starts. The Kings are at New Orleans, where Ryan Bowen could start in place of PF David West, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. West should have a good year, if he can get healthy. Peja Stojakovic will be interesting to watch tonight, as his owners anxiously wait to find out if his back is healthy again. If it is, he was a steal in your draft. sacramentokings.com

The Spurs open the season with a back-to-back and are at Memphis tonight. This should be a tough test for San Antonio, as the Grizzlies look to be much improved. Damon Stoudamire could have a big night as the starting point guard, while Pau Gasol looks ready to go. UPDATE: There are reports that Gasol may come off the bench tonight behind Darko Milicic, but I'm not sure I believe it. We'll see.

Dallas is at Cleveland, where Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James are set to lead their teams. Expect newly-signed Sasha Pavlovic to be in the house, but it may be a game or two before he sees any action. It will be interesting to see who Avery Johnson starts at shooting guard tonight with Josh Howard suspended. It could be Jerry Stackhouse, Trenton Hassell or Eddie Jones, meaning Jason Terry could come off the bench. But then again, with Howard out, Terry could land in the starting five tonight. Either way, Terry should be a safe play.
dallasmavericks.com
Robert Swift has almost no shot of playing for the Sonics at Denver, meaning Nick Collison is your starting center. Earl Watson will start at point guard for now (I'm expecting a solid two weeks from him), while you can also look for a big game from Damien Wilkins, who should start at small forward. Kevin Durant sounds like a go, unless he experiences a setback in pre-game warmups. The Nuggets are set to start Kenyon Martin at power forward, bringing Nene off the bench to back up Marcus Camby. Yakhouba Diawara is set to start at shooting guard, but Linas Kleiza might be the guy with fantasy value.

[Hache Man]

A Long Journey Ahead
The fantasy basketball standings still show 0-0 for each team; last year's league champion and this year's rookie owner remain deadlocked. In the next six months, anything can happen. We've got a long, arduous, sometimes-injury-plagued, unfair and exciting season ahead of us. Fantasy hoops is back and it's fan-freakin-tastic!

The Week Ahead will dissect the next week of basketball. We'll break down the entire league's schedule, highlight some cool matchups, recap the latest on the injury report and even get a chance to see Mark Cuban shake a leg. Let's get started…

Game Totals in Week 2:
Five games: none
Four games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DEN, HOU, LAL, NO, ORL, PHO, SA, SEA, TOR
Three games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DET, IND, MEM, MIA, MIN, MIL, NJ, NY, PHI, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS
Two games GS, LAL

Interesting Matchups:
Monday, Nov. 5 Houston @ Dallas: Monday will feature another big Texas matchup as the Mavs host the Rockets; it will be Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady versus Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Last season, Dallas went 2-1 vs Houston; they finished with two of the top-five best records, but were both ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Sticking with the Texas theme, the Rockets host the Spurs on Tuesday.

Wednesday, Nov. 7 Denver @ Boston: Superstars galore will meet in Beantown this upcoming hump-day, as the Nuggets take on the vastly improved Celtics. Melo, the Answer, the Big Ticket, the Rain Man and the Truth will all meet up at the TD Banknorth Garden. Incidentally, the Nuggets will travel to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday – lets hope Melo's fist can stay away from Mardy Collins' jaw this time.

Thursday, Nov. 8 Detroit @ Chicago: The Pistons have won the Central Division in four of the past five seasons. They'll have some steep competition this year though with the deep Bulls roster and the LeBron-led Cavs. After defeating Chicago and losing to Cleveland in the playoffs last year, many experts are predicting Detroit will do it again this year. Ben Wallace and the Bulls will host his former team on Thursday on TNT.

Thursday, Nov. 8 Dallas @ Golden State: After an 0-4 start last season, the Mavericks finished the regular season by going 67-11. The impressive 67 victories were tied for sixth-best in league history. High expectations were placed on their shoulders heading into the postseason. However, Golden State squashed those dreams by knocking them off the first round of the playoffs. Dallas will look will look for some revenge this Wednesday. This contest will be aired on TNT.

Friday, Nov. 9 Denver @ Washington: This contest features three of the top-six leading scorers in the league last season, including the top-two highest-scoring point guards. Carmelo Anthony (28.9 PPG) and Allen Iverson (26.3 PPG) will travel to our nation's capital to take on Gilbert Arenas (28.4 PPG) and the Wizards Friday. This contest will be aired on ESPN.

Team-by-Team Injuries/Schedule:
Atlanta Hawks @nj, PHO, @bos, WAS
Zaza Pachulia (knee) – doubtful for the week
Salim Stoudamire (hamstring) – day-to-day
Speedy Claxton (knee) – out indefinitely

Boston Celtics DEN, ATL, @nj
Kendrick Perkins (hamstring) – day-to-day
Scot Pollard (ankle) – day-to-day
It's a good time to be a Boston fan nowadays; the Red Sox just took the series, the Patriots are steamrolling through the NFL, B.C. ranks No. 2 in the college polls and the Celtics have the pieces in place to make a run at another title. Not counting the All-Star break week, Boston only has just one more two-game week so obviously – unless injured – keep the big three in your starting lineups all year. Rajon Rondo is a monster sleeper playing along side three possible Hall of Famers, and should put together a few 4x5 games throughout the season. Look for something like 8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.5 APG and 2.5 SPG from the second-year floor general.

Charlotte Bobcats PHO, @phi, IND, HOU
Adam Morrison (knee) – out for the season
Sean May (knee) – out for the season
Othella Harrington (knee surgery) – day-to-day

Chicago Bulls LAC, DET, TOR
Joakim Noah (ankle) – out indefinitely
Ben Wallace (ankle) was able to play through the pain Wednesday, notching seven points, five boards and a block. He won't be the Defensive Player of the Year/league's leading rebounder like he was with the Pistons, but you should still anticipate around 10 RPG and 2 BPG. However, he's proving he's not quite a quality No. 1 fantasy center with the Bulls.

Cleveland Cavaliers @gs, @uta, @sac, @lac
Cedric Simmons (ankle) – out indefinitely
Eric Snow (knee surgery) – return mid-November
LeBron James actually looked human last night, shooting a miserable 2-for-11 for 10 points and five turnovers in a loss to Dallas. Virtually the entire Cavs team looked bad actually, shooting just 36% from the field and 60% from the line in the 18-point defeat. Zydrunas Ilgauskas was the lone bright spot for the team, racking up 17 points and 18 boards. After a second-rate season in 06, this was encouraging for the big fella. Andersen Varejao continues to hold out.

Dallas Mavericks HOU, @gs, @por
Devean George (foot) – day-to-day
Erick Dampier (shoulder) – hoping to return in November
With Dampier sidelined for another few weeks probably, DeSagana Diop came up big in the opener on Wednesday. He started at center, logged a team-high 37 minutes and came through with 11 boards and four swats. You would look very silly to start him because of his offense, but he could provide some value in deeper Roto formats with the bigger workload. FYI – Dallas plays four times in Weeks 4-7 so mid-tier players Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris and possibly Eddie Jones will have a little more fantasy value early on.

Denver Nuggets @ny, @bos, @was, @ind
Chucky Atkins (groin) – return late December
Anthony Carter (hand) – return early December

Detroit Pistons @chi, LAC, @sea
Rodney Stuckey (hand) – return early December

Golden St. Warriors CLE, DAL
Stephen Jackson (suspension) – out for first seven games
The Warriors are one of two teams that play only twice in Week 2. That obviously hurts the value of Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Al Harrington, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and Andres Biedrins for this period.

Houston Rockets @dal, SA, MIL, @cha

Indiana Pacers LAC, @cha, DEN
Jermaine O'Neal (knee) – day-to-day
Troy Murphy (Achilles') – day-to-day
With J.O. and Murph sidelined, the Pacers still had plenty of offense in a barnburner win against Washington. Mike Dunleavy led the way with 25 points, while Danny Granger and Jamaal Tinsley pitched in with 20 a piece. Tinsley has the potential to drop 20 any night, but typically takes a back seat offensively. He also came through with nine boards, eight assists and three steals in the win. He's been somewhat of an injury liability from a fantasy standpoint the past few seasons but should still be considered a quality No. 2 fantasy guard.

L.A. Clippers @chi, @ind, @det, CLE
Elton Brand (Achilles') – hoping to return in February
Shaun Livingston (knee surgery) – likely out for the season

L.A. Lakers NO, MIN
Luke Walton (hip) – day-to-day
Lamar Odom (shoulder) – return mid-November
Odom was involved in a two-car accident and sustained a concussion on his way to the Lakers shootaround Tuesday, which could further delay his return to the lineup. Police are also reportedly investigating the accident alleging that Odom may have blown a red light and caused the collision.

Memphis Grizzlies @sea, @por, @uta
It's hard to believe that Darko Milicic is only 22 years old. After being taken No. 2 overall by the Pistons in 2003, the seven-footer has been consider by most a "major bust" in his first few years. He was essentially glued to the bench for three season in Motown, but enjoyed a minor breakout season with the Magic last year – finishing with averages of 8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 1.8 BPG. He inked a three-year deal with Memphis this offseason, and has earned a starting spot for the Grizz this season. Consider those first four years his college learning experience – it's time for the kid to produce now. 12 PPG, 9 RPG and 2 BPG are realistic and respectable goals for him in Memphis so expect some big games this year. (Interesting stat – Carmelo Anthony, who was taken No. 3 overall in the 2003 draft, dropped 23 points in his fifth professional game. In 206 career games, Milicic has never scored that many points in a game).

Oh BTW, if you are starting to think Stromile Swift might be a productive fantasy performer this season… think again. Last night's line – 13 minutes, four points, three rebounds. Damon Stoudamire proved he's still got a little something left in the tank though, going for 18 points with four assists and four 3-pointers.

Miami Heat @sa, PHO, @ny
Dwyane Wade (shoulder) – hoping to return in late November

Milwaukee Bucks TOR, @hou, @sa
Bobby Simmons must be encouraged with his performance in the regular season opener. After missing all of last season with a heel injury, he returned 26 pounds lighter this year and pitched in with 18 points off the bench in Wednesday's contest. He shot 7-for-11 from the field and could surpass Desmond Mason (six points, 3-for-11 FG) as the starting small forward down the road if he keeps this up. Andrew Bogut (wrist) played through his injury and had four points and 11 rebounds. FYI – Milwaukee is the only team that plays twice in Week 3 so consider benching your Bucks then; they are also the only team that has a five-game week (period 13) this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves ORL, @lal, @sac
Randy Foye (knee) – out indefinitely
Mark Madsen (shoulder) – return in November
With Foye sidelined for several weeks, it looks like Sebastian Telfair and possibly even Marko Jaric could see increased roles for the TWolves. Foye has a stress fracture in his left knee, so might not play his first game of the season until December. … Minnesota officially waived Juwan Howard, Wayne Simien and Beno Udrih on Sunday to get their team to the mandatory 15-man roster. All three players were acquired via offseason deals, then released to free up cap room. They are obviously in the midst of a major rebuilding phase, so don't expect too many victories for Garnett-less Wolves in 2007-08.

NOK Hornets @lal, @por, SA, @phi
After being listed as doubtful for the opener, David West (ankle) was able to start for the Hornets in their opener Wednesday. He's a 20/10 threat on many nights and – despite missing 30 games via injury – led the team in scoring average at 18.3 PPG last season. If he can avoid the injuries, those numbers should increase for the fourth straight season. He pitched in with 17 points, eight boards and six assists in the win, while all Hornets starters finished in double figures. CP3 racked up 22 points, a dozen assists, eight boards and three steals. (Click on the link – pretty sweet tune about Paul.)

New Jersey Nets ATL, WAS, BOS
Marcus Williams (foot) – hoping to return in early December
I think Jason Kidd has the potential to be like a Roger Clemens or a Brett Favre for his sport; he just doesn't slow down. He might eventually be living in a convalescent home and still be racking up triple-dubs. He shined again in the opener, filling up the stat sheet with seven points, eight boards, 13 assists and five assists. Vincanity (24, 9, 6) and RJ (29, 10) did their thing too, but the big surprise was the production from Antoine Wright off the bench. The third-year forward came through with 21 points in 28 minutes – including 14 after the third quarter. Don't expect that regularly though – New Jersey will get the vast majority of their scoring from their veteran starting lineup. Wright has the upside of about 10 PPG.

New York Knicks DEN, ORL, MIA
Renaldo Balkman (ankle) – hoping to return in November
Jerome James (knee) – out indefinitely

Orlando Magic @min, @tor, @ny, PHO
Tony Battie (shoulder) – out for the season

Philadelphia 76ers CHA, TOR, NO
Willie Green has won the starting shooting guard position over Rodney Carney and responded with a dozen points in Game 1. When he starts, he produces – keep that in mind. He's capable of scoring around 15 PPG with the starting role so consider him as your No. 3 guard, especially in four-game weeks (periods 5-7). Teammate Kyle Korver dropped 20 points on 4-for-7 3-point shooting off the pine. When he's on, he's fantastic; when he's off, he's atrocious. Ride the sharpshooter until his confidence goes.

Phoenix Suns @cha, @atl, @mia, @orl

Portland Trailblazers NO, MEM, DAL
Josh McRoberts (ankle) – out indefinitely
Darius Miles (knee surgery) – out indefinitely
Greg Oden (knee surgery) – out for the season
Coach Nate McMillan announced this week that Jarrett Jack beat out Steve Blake for the starting point guard duties with a strong preseason. Both will get decent minutes in the backcourt for the Blazers, but Jack appears to be a slightly better fantasy play. Second-year player LaMarcus Aldridge blew up for an impressive 27 points in the season opener Tuesday, and looks poised for a big season. … If you looked at the league's leading scorers on Wednesday, you would have seen Martell Webster at No. 9 with a 21.0 PPG average. He's earned the starting small forward job and looks ready for a breakout season. It's realistic the kid could average around 15 PPG for the young Blazers, so consider him a nice No. 3 fantasy forward option.

Sacramento Kings SEA, CLE, MIN
Mike Bibby (thumb) – out 6-8 weeks
Spencer Hawes (knee surgery) – might return in early December
Ron Artest (suspension) – out for first seven games
Quincy Douby (concussion) – day-to-day
Bibby will miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season after he tore some ligaments in his left thumb during a practice session last week. He could be out as long as two months with the injury. In his absence, John Salmons appears to be the biggest beneficiary of his missing stats. Salmons started Wednesday and racked up 22 points, nine assists and three steals. He should be a decent No. 2 guard until Bibby returns. Francisco Garcia also dropped 17 and is a nice breakout candidate this season. Quincy Douby suffered a concussion after he collided with Tyson Chandler and is considered day-to-day. He'll likely miss some time to be cautious.
sacramentokings.com
San Antonio Spurs @hou, MIA, @no, MIL

Seattle Sonics @sac, MEM, UTA, DET
Kurt Thomas (hamstring) – day-to-day
Robert Swift (knee) – day-to-day
Luke Ridnour (coach's decision) – day-to-day
No. 2 selection Kevin Durant (ankle) splashed in 18 points in his NBA debut, but struggled mightily with his shot. He went just 7-for-22 from the field in 31 minutes. Carmelo Anthony matched up against him and really shut him down - welcome to the league rook. No. 5 pick Jeff Green had five points off the pine. Keep Durant active – he's got the green light in the green jersey.

Luke Ridnour got a DNP – coach's decision in the contest and appears to be out of the Sonics backcourt rotation for the time being. He's having difficulties getting used to the plastic mask that he's been forced to wear after breaking his nose in a preseason game. Keep him reserved for Week 2 – he's got to wear the mask for two weeks.

Toronto Raptors @mil, ORL, @phi, @chi
As expected, Jason Kapono was inserted into the Raptors starting-five for their season opener on Halloween. The long-range bomber is a must-own in Rotisserie leagues because of his stellar 3-point and free throw shooting. He led the NBA last season, shooting 52% from beyond the arc. … It looks like Toronto will run with a two-headed point guard combo once again this season, with T.J. Ford starting and Jose Calderon seeing decent minutes off the pine. Ford will finish in the top-10 in dimes once again, while Calderon is good for 5+ assists in his reserve role.

Utah Jazz CLE, @sea, MEM
After a tumultuous season last year, Andrei Kirilenko looked spectacular in the season opener, registering a 4x5 (nine points, nine rebounds, eight assists, five blocks). While his offense might not return to what it used to be – he averaged 15+ PPG from 2003-05 – his all-around game will likely be back now. Get him plugged into all starting lineups again. … I think Mehmet Okur was Casper the friendly ghost this season because he was just about invisible for the opener, going scoreless with just three rebounds. But hey, we can't always be at our best… Keep him starting in all leagues though – he'll bounce back strong. utahjazz.com

Washington Wizards @nj, DEN, @atl
Etan Thomas (heart) – likely out for the season
With Thomas not expected to return this season, Brandon Haywood should finally put together a big year in D.C. Although, he still won't get the type of minutes that Agent Zero, Jamison or Butler gets, he has an outside shot to average a double-double. He did just that in the opener on Halloween, scoring 13 points and pulling down 10 boards. Consider him a high-end No. 2 center until he really proves his worth.

[Hache Man]

Do You Believe in Magic?

Rashard Lewis, the Orlando Magic's $118 million man, paid instant dividends in his debut Wednesday night, racking up 26 points to lead his new club past the Bucks.

He was draining them from everywhere, sinking 9-of-13, and leading a Magic attack that used its suddenly potent outside game as the perfect complement to inside threat Dwight Howard. The result was a barrage from the exterior, as Orlando sunk 54 percent of its attempts beyond the arc to bury Milwaukee.

Lewis nailed three of his four treys during a key third quarter run, in which Orlando turned a one-point deficit into a 19-point lead. While he was lighting it up on the scoreboard and establishing himself as the Magic's new go-to guy, Lewis wasn't exactly filling the stat sheet. He failed to record a steal, block or assist, and hauled in only six rebounds.

After dealing with an ankle problem for most of the pre-season, perhaps Lewis just needs a bit more time before he's completely back up to snuff but – last night, at least – there was certainly nothing wrong with his shooting touch.

While we get used to NBA life with Rashard Lewis emerging from Ray Allen's shadows and announcing his presence as a main man, let's check in on some of the highlights from around the league on Wednesday night…

• Surely, King James owners weren't expecting this kind of start from LeBron. He got into some early foul trouble, and failed to register a single point until the second half, winding up just 2-for-11 for 10 points. Ugh. That's definitely one of the ugliest efforts he's had an NBA player. This was just the eighth time in his career that he's scored 10 or less points while playing at least 30 minutes. Throw in his five turnovers and it's clear this is a game owners need to forget. Come on, he's King James. He'll be fine.
• Thanks, a lot, dude. After struggling through the preseason and being listed as doubtful for last night's action because of an ankle injury, David West not only played, but he was an all-around threat with 17 points, eight boards, six dimes and two blocks. Still, in combining with Chris Paul to lead the team to a win over the Kings, West's big night helped make it a triumphant return to the Big Easy for the Hornets. Those in daily move leagues need to get West back in the lineup pronto.
• Manu Ginobili went hog wild Wednesday, nailing five treys and 13-of-14 free throws for 30 points as the Spurs were victorious in Memphis. Throw in seven assists, five boards and two steals and you've got yourself one serious line by Ginobili, looking in the early going as the best man not currently in the starting five for an NBA club.

Injury Report

• Jermaine O'Neal's hyperextended knee is apparently ready to go after he missed Wednesday's game. At this point, it's just conditioning that is keeping him sidelined, so he's expected to be in the lineup against the Heat Friday. So J.O.'s knee is fine? Okay, we'll believe that when we see it. Proceed with caution this season, people. In the meantime, Mike Dunleavy sure took advantage of the extra PT Wednesday.

indianapacers.com

Tip-ins: So much for Stromile Swift being a starter and actually having fantasy value…Kevin Durant, playing on a wonky ankle, did a little bit of everything Wednesday, but his shooting (7-for-22) left something to be desired…Coach Sloan is saying that Deron Williams is being given more leeway to run the Jazz offense the way he sees fit this season. Great news for his owners, to be sure…Chris Bosh certainly wasn't bad last night, scoring 16 points while adding four boards and a couple of blocks, but after dealing with a bum knee all preseason, it's going to take CB4 a while before he flashes that back-to-back All-Star form…The Sixers failed to meet the deadline to sign Andre Iguodala to a contract extension, so he'll be a restricted free agent next summer. It's potentially a major burn for Philly, who will now have to compete with the rest of the NBA to re-sign Iggy at the end of the year…Minnesota, on the other hand, did beat the deadline and penned Al Jefferson to a five-year, $65-million extension. Darn good thing, considering Big Al was the big prize from the KG deal…Tyrus Thomas did start over Joe Smith last night, but he hardly took advantage of his chance, getting in early foul trouble and sinking just 1-of-7 from the floor and failing to record a block or steal. Smith, also in foul trouble most of the night, wasn't much better…Jason Terry did, in fact, come off the bench Wednesday, but that won't continue for long the way Eddie Jones struggled and Terry lit it up with six treys on his way to 24 points…Samuel Dalembert (foot) was able to play last night, and while he was rusty from the floor (2-for-8), he was a beast on defence with four blocks and did not look limited at all, crashing the boards with his usual reckless abandon…Lamar Odom, involved in a car accident Tuesday, will miss a couple of weeks after suffering a mild concussion…With both Robert Swift (knee) and Kurt Thomas (hamstring) out of action Wednesday, Johan Petro got plenty of burn off the Sonic bench, and responded with a near double-double and a pair of blocks. Here he goes, teasing us with his potential again…We're still waiting to see if Andrea Bargnani can ever become a rebounder, but he's definitely added strength and a bit more width this year, so that should stead him well in his nightly battles against the biggest men the NBA has to throw at him. Forcing bigger defenders out to the perimeter to guard against Bargnani's three-point shooting gives the Raps a big advantage in the paint as well…Starbury says he's going to be looking to shoot more this year. Whether that means an increase in his fantasy value or not remains to be seen, but you've got to at least expect more three-pointers, and that's a bonus...the Hawks will allow their two Joshes – Smith and Childress – to become restricted free agents next summer after failing to sign either of them to a contract extension by midnight last night. That may be good news for owners, with each player now gunning for a big deal with his play this season. Of course, we'll have to wait until Friday before the Hawks start their campaign this year. They are part of the final group of teams to kick off their respective 2007-08 seasons.