NFL Fantasy Football News 2008

[Hache Man]

IDP Breakouts: Linebackers

You might notice that most of the Individual Defensive Players on this list play for teams whose offenses probably won't be very good this year. No Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Browns, or Jaguars. Naturally, teams lacking great offenses tend to play defense more, giving defenders increased opportunities to fill the stat sheet. While there are exceptions, (most often at the DL position), it's a good idea to consider the other side of the ball when drafting your IDP lineup.

We begin a three-part IDP series with five linebackers capable of taking major statistical leaps in 2008. Defensive backs and linemen are forthcoming.

Jets ILB David Harris

Harris was nothing short of beastly after replacing injured Jonathan Vilma at weak inside linebacker in Week 8 last season. Harris roamed sideline to sideline and racked up tackles, averaging 11.3 stops per game in the last nine weeks. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton also used him frequently as a pass rusher. With space clogging Kris Jenkins (6'4/390) now at nose tackle, Harris will be better shielded than he was behind 3-4 misfit Dewayne Robertson (6'1/317). Opponents will also have to key on new rush linebacker Vernon Gholston, who'll likely line up adjacent to Harris at ROLB. Harris is big (6'2/245), fast (4.53 at 2007 Combine), instinctive, and durable. With a full-time starting job, we expect him to supplant Patrick Willis as the NFL's leading tackler this season.

2007 Line: 127 (90 solo) – 5 SCK – 0 INT – FR – 2 FF – 3 PASS DEF
Projection: 163 (121 solo) – 6 SCK – INT – 2 FR – 3 FF – 5 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: LB1

Chiefs WLB Demorrio Williams
kansascitychiefs.com
A Jim Mora era holdover, Williams barely kept his starting job from fourth-round rookie Stephen Nicholas under Bobby Petrino last year. In his defense, Williams was coming off a torn pectorals suffered in the offseason conditioning program. He also produced when he played. Signed to upgrade a Chiefs defense that may actually forge team fantasy value because the offense will never be playing, Williams qualifies as a high-upside IDP. While not a classic run-stopping linebacker, Williams has excellent ball skills and athleticism. Our projection is admittedly conservative because of dependent variables. It will be no surprise if Williams approaches 120 tackles with 3-4 picks. Williams' signing moved Napoleon Harris to the bench and Donnie Edwards to MLB. Edwards is another IDP to target.

2007 Line: 78 (63 solo) – 0 SCK – 2 INT – 0 FR – 0 FF – 2 PASS DEF
Projection: 104 (79 solo) – SCK – 3 INT – FR – FF – 6 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: LB22

Eagles MLB Stewart Bradley

Bradley sat behind SLB Chris Gocong last year, playing special teams until taking over as the Birds' nickel 'backer down the stretch. That coordinator Jim Johnson let Bradley play on passing downs was a good sign. Because now that he's slated to start inside, we know Bradley won't come off the field often. Johnson uses a penetrating, blitz-happy scheme that usually doesn't lead to massive tackle counts at MLB (Omar Gaither had 102 there last year). But Bradley will get pass-rushing opps, and for a MIKE linebacker, is extremely imposing at 6'3/254. He also showed a nose for the football at Nebraska with five forced fumbles and four recoveries as a senior. We like Bradley a bit more in big play-heavy formats, but he'll be worth rostering as an LB2/3 in tackle-first settings too.

2007 Line: 18 (14 solo) – SCK – INT – 0 FR – 0 FF – PASS DEF
Projection: 92 (72 solo) – 3 SCK – INT – 2 FR – 2 FF – 6 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: LB31

Bills WLB Kawika Mitchell
buffalobills.com
Mitchell started slowly as a first-year Giant in 2007, but became arguably the club's best LB by season's end. He showed toughness, missing no time due to a late-season MCL sprain. In Buffalo now, Mitchell's production could skyrocket. Coordinator Perry Fewell teaches a Tampa 2 zone scheme that streams ball carriers to the weak side, where Mitchell will play. While a stepback in the sacks department is likely because Fewell doesn't blitz linebackers as much as Steve Spagnuolo did, Mitchell is a virtual lock to approach the century mark in tackles. He's also likely to be an every-down player.

2007 Line: 76 (54 solo) – 3.5 SCK – INT – FR – 2 FF – 4 PASS DEF
Projection: 98 (78 solo) – 0 SCK – INT – 2 FR – FF – 6 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: LB32

Bills MLB Paul Posluszny
buffalobills.com
Poz teased by opening his rookie season with consecutive double-digit tackle efforts, then breaking his forearm in Week 3. Buffalo's defense wouldn't be the same with undrafted rookie John DiGiorgio inside. Healthy again, Posluszny is poised to pick up where he left off. The Penn State alum may come off the field during passing situations in favor of cover 'backer Keith Ellison, but is the run stopper the Bills are desperate for at the MIKE. Don't expect many glory stats from Posluszny, but he's a strong bet for 100 stops.

2007 Line: 26 (17 solo) – 0 SCK – 0 INT – 0 FR – 0 FF – 0 PASS DEF
Projection: 101 (73 solo) – 0 SCK – INT – 2 FR – 0 FF – PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: LB45

Others to Keep a Close Eye On: Bengals MLB Odell Thurman, Dolphins ILB Akin Ayodele, Patriots ILB Jerod Mayo, Bengals WLB Keith Rivers, Colts WLB Freddie Keiaho, Broncos MLB Niko Koutouvides, Chargers ILB Matt Wilhelm, Giants WLB Gerris Wilkinson, Lions MLB Jordon Dizon, Panthers WLB Landon Johnson, Falcons MLB Curtis Lofton, Saints MLB Jonathan Vilma, Cardinals OLB Travis LaBoy

[Hache Man]

IDP Breakouts: Defensive Backs

This is the second installment of our three-part IDP Breakouts series.
Defensive linemen will be posted early this week.

When evaluating IDP defensive backs, it's vital to consider the players in front of them. Leaky front sevens allow ball carriers to reach the second level, creating tackle opportunities in the back. Playing behind a much improved defensive line and linebacker unit last year, Titans SS Chris Hope was a megabust IDP before his season-ending spinal chord injury. He averaged only 4.5 tackles per game (3.4 solo) after posting 121 tackles (7.6 per-game average) the season prior.

If you're looking for consistency, also target safeties over cornerbacks. Safeties are typically involved in more plays than CBs, especially man corners assigned to cover receivers one on one. Strong safeties, in particular, tend to line up "in the box," or close to the line of scrimmage. These defensive backs usually won't kill you with empty one- or two-tackle efforts in a given week. Here are the top tackling DBs from the past five seasons:

2007: 49ers SS Michael Lewis (104 – 75 solo)
2006: Titans SS Chris Hope (121 – 89 solo)
2005: Jets FS Erik Coleman (121 – 84 solo)
2004: Patriots SS Rodney Harrison (138 – 94 solo)
2003: Patriots SS Rodney Harrison (126 – 92 solo)

Notice, no corners.

Saints SS Roman Harper

Coming off a torn ACL, Harper was exposed at times in coverage in '07. But he showed a knack for the big play and held off Kevin Kaesviharn for playing time. Giants GM Jerry Reese, who's quickly established himself as an elite judge of talent, wanted Harper in a Jeremy Shockey trade this offseason. The Saints said no.

Harper returns a full year removed from surgery and should regain some range. The Saints like to send him on blitzes, which increases Harper's fantasy upside, and he could see more tackle opportunities behind a linebacker unit that may have two starters returning from serious injury (MLB Jonathan Vilma and WLB Dan Morgan). Harper projects as a consistent and top-shelf DB1.

2007 Line: 90 (75 solo) – 4 SCK – 3 INT – 0 FR – 2 FF – 8 PASS DEF
Projection: 100 (84 solo) – 3 SCK – 2 INT – FR – 3 FF – 7 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DB1

Raiders CB DeAngelo Hall
oaklandraiders.com
Hall was never bookended by good corners in Atlanta, but offensive coordinators still tested him often. Because of his ball skills and above-average tackling ability, Hall managed solid IDP value even on bad Falcons teams opponents didn't have to throw on to beat.

Now playing opposite the NFL's premier shutdown cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, Hall can anticipate a major increase in activity. No starting CB was thrown at less than Asomugha last year. Expect some game-to-game inconsistency because Hall is a press corner moving to the right side, where opponents run less frequently, but still a healthy dose of tackles and a sharp uptick in big plays. Hall has good hands and won't drop many picks. Statistically speaking, there isn't a CB in the league with more IDP upside.

2007 Line: 70 (63 solo) – 0 SCK – 5 INT – FR – FF – 16 PASS DEF
Projection: 76 (69 solo) – 0 SCK – 7 INT – 0 FR – FF – 18 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DB5

Chiefs SS Bernard Pollard
kansascitychiefs.com
After focusing on special teams as a rookie in 2006, Pollard took over as a starter in his sophomore season. His tackling numbers were inconsistent and Pollard saw too much coverage duty behind struggling CBs Patrick Surtain and Ty Law. We projected Pollard to lead the NFL in forced fumbles, but "Bonecrusher" managed to pop loose just one.

Coordinator Gunther Cunningham realizes that Pollard's strength is playing at the line of scrimmage, where he is an extremely imposing force at 6'1/224. With teams unlikely to pass on the Chiefs particularly often because of their weak front seven and roster overall (no one should have to play catch-up against Kansas City in 2008), Cunningham should get Pollard more in-the-box opportunities. The Chiefs' defense also figures to be on the field a lot. Pollard has some boom-or-bust potential, but a "boom" is more likely.

2007 Line: 90 (74 solo) – SCK – 2 INT – 0 FR – FF – 7 PASS DEF
Projection: 98 (82 solo) – 2 SCK – 0 INT – FR – 4 FF – 3 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DB7

Lions SS Daniel Bullocks
detroitlions.com
The 40th overall pick in 2006, Bullocks entered last year's training camp atop Detroit's depth chart at free safety. But he tore his ACL during the preseason and was placed on injured reserve. Raw rookie Gerald Alexander was forced into action and wasn't the ballhawk in centerfield Bullucks might've been.

The Lions have moved Bullocks to strong safety, replacing Kenoy Kennedy. By the start of camp, he'll be 11 months removed from the injury. Bullocks may lose some range like Roman Harper in 2007, but possesses 100-tackle potential behind a soft front seven. The former Nebraska Cornhusker only has to hold off recently arrested Kalvin Pearson and Alexander for playing time. If he does, Bullocks could emerge as the biggest IDP sleeper in the league. He has a nose for the football and will make plays around the LOS.

2007 Line: None (injured)
Projection: 100 (73 solo) – SCK – 2 INT – 3 FR – 3 FF – 4 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DB8

Chargers CB Quentin Jammer
sandiegochargers.com
The Bolts' left cornerback put together another solid yet unspectacular season in 2007. Jammer isn't a game changer, but tackles reliably and will bat down passes when he gets the chance. He flashed big-play skills with four picks in 2003 and 2006, but Jammer has one or fewer in each of his other four seasons.

The cat is out of the bag on RCB Antonio Cromartie, who led the league with 10 picks in 2007 despite not overtaking Drayton Florence until midseason. Expect offensive coordinators to game plan around Cromartie and Jammer's breakup opportunities to increase. While Jammer's stone hands limit his upside, especially in glory stat-heavy formats, you probably won't find many more consistently productive corners. Jammer also plays the strong side, so a good number of running backs will be coming in his direction.

2007 Line: 61 (54 solo) – 0 SCK – INT – 2 FR – 0 FF – 10 PASS DEF
Projection: 77 (68 solo) – 0 SCK – INT – FR – 0 FF – 19 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DB25

Others to Keep a Close Eye On: Dolphins SS Yeremiah Bell, Jets CB Darrelle Revis, Bengals SS Chinedum Ndukwe, Bengals CB Leon Hall, Browns CB Brandon McDonald, Texans CB Fred Bennett, Jaguars CB/SS Brian Williams, Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers, Broncos SS Hamza Abdullah, Eagles SS Quintin Mikell, Redskins SS Reed Doughty, Bears SS Brandon McGowan, Vikings CB Cedric Griffin, Falcons CB Chris Houston, Falcons SS Thomas DeCoud

[Hache Man]

IDP Breakouts: Defensive Line

Unlike linebackers and defensive backs, elite IDP defensive linemen aren't a dime a dozen. They're also more fun to start based on matchups. For instance, if you know a left end is going against Bengals right tackle Willie Anderson in a given week, start your guy. If your right defensive end is facing Seahawks LT Walter Jones or Browns LT Joe Thomas, consider other options.

Particularly in sack-heavy leagues, 3-4 linemen should be avoided. You hear a lot about Richard Seymour, but he's rung up more than six sacks just once in his career. Steelers DE Aaron Smith, another big name, dominates versus the run and can collapse the pocket. His career-high sack count is eight. And that came four years ago.

Also consider targeting former 4-3 defensive ends that are converting to outside linebacker in a 3-4. Linebackers tend to get more tackles. Players falling into that category this year include Travis LaBoy (Cardinals), Calvin Pace (Jets), and potential hybrid Justin Smith (49ers).

Chiefs RE Tamba Hali
kansascitychiefs.com
Hali was a solid if unspectacular bookend for Jared Allen the past two seasons. While the Penn State alum totaled 15 sacks, one NFL player said his team's entire game plan one week in 2007 was to run directly at Hali. Hali's tackles, forced fumbles, and pass deflection numbers all fell off in his sophomore season. He was playing out of position.

He's now moving to Allen's old RE spot, where Hali often looked natural as a Nittany Lion. Hali won't face tackle-tight end double teams on that end and gets to attack quarterbacks on their blind sides. He'll also square off against suspect intradivision LTs Kwame Harris (Raiders) and rookie Ryan Clady (Broncos). Hali should pop loose more fumbles and rack up more sacks in his new digs. Since the Chiefs' offense figures to be terrible, Hali should also be playing quite a bit.

2007 Line: 58 (46 solo) – 7.5 SCK – 0 INT – 0 FR – 2 FF – 2 PASS DEF
Projection: 61 (49 solo) – 10 SCK – 0 INT – FR – 4 FF – 3 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DL11

Giants LE Justin Tuck
NY Giants
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, new to the Giants in 2007, used Tuck in various ways last season. Tuck played some three technique on the interior and was used to spell Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora at both end spots. The results were a breakout season, but Tuck wasn't even a starter.

Tuck's statistics won't get too much better, but with Strahan seriously contemplating going out on top, the versatile 25-year-old has a chance to be an every-down player. If Strahan does retire, Mathias Kiwanuka could potentially take Tuck's old "slash" role. That will be a depth chart situation to watch in training camp, but Tuck figures to get the first look at LE because he's established and groomed for the position. Double-digit sacks and DL1 value in all formats should be a cinch if Tuck joins the first team permanently. Tuck isn't a true "breakout" candidate persay, but no DL in the league's value has risen as much as his over the past year. Don't undervalue him.

2007 Line: 64 (48 solo) – 9.5 SCK – 0 INT – 0 FR – FF – 2 PASS DEF
Projection: 62 (47 solo) – 11 SCK – 0 INT – FR – 3 FF – 2 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DL10

49ers RE Justin Smith

Smith's sack total took a disturbing plunge in 2007, but he still led his team in QB pressures and played 16 games for the sixth straight season. His 78 tackles ranked second on the Bengals, behind only Dhani Jones, and third in the NFL amongst defensive linemen (after Jets DE Kenyon Coleman and Ravens DT Kelly Gregg).

Now in San Francisco, Smith will play with his hand up in some 3-4 packages. And don't think he'll be out of place; Smith was handpicked out of Missouri by 3-4 guru Dick LeBeau in 2001. Smith will be contending with exceptionally talented NFC West left tackles (Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Levi Brown), but it's fair to expect his sacks to rebound some. He'll also roam more, and because Smith's motor never lets up, should remain a DL1-caliber contributor in tackle-heavy settings.

2007 Line: 78 (49 solo) – 2 SCK – 0 INT – 0 FR – 0 FF – 3 PASS DEF
Projection: 80 (52 solo) – 5 SCK – 0 INT – 0 FR – 2 FF – 2 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DL13

Bengals LE Robert Geathers

Unless Geathers just mailed it in after getting a big new contract last January, his subpar 2007 campaign can be chalked up as a fluke. Due to countless injuries, the Bengals were forced to play Geathers at strong-side linebacker rather than his traditional base left end spot. The switch helped Geathers' tackles slightly, but he clearly wasn't comfortable playing with his hand up. It cost him dearly in the big-play department.

Coach Marvin Lewis considered going with a 3-4 alignment, but that's not happening. Geathers returns to defensive end, where he is quicker than most offensive right tackles and relentless in pursuit. Geathers will play on all three downs and figures to approach the ten sacks he posted in 2006. Upgrade him in sack-heavy formats.

2007 Line: 48 (26 solo) – 3.5 SCK – INT – FR – 2 FF – 3 PASS DEF
Projection: 42 (27 solo) – 9 SCK – 0 INT – FR – 2 FF – 2 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DL40

Eagles LE Victor Abiamiri

In the six games Abiamiri did play as a 2007 rookie, he mostly focused on special teams. On defense, the former Notre Dame star sat behind Juqua Parker and Jevon Kearse at left end. The Birds signed Chris Clemons to replace Kearse as a situational rusher. Coordinator Jim Johnson heaped praise on Abiamiri and put him with the first unit at post-draft minicamps.

Abiamiri (6'4/270) can hold the point better than Clemons or Parker, who are both very undersized. While Abiamiri won't play every down, he'll be run at often on the strong side and is set up for tackle opportunities. Expecting close to double-digit sacks would be too bold, but Abiamiri showed in college that he can rush the passer (18.5 sacks his last two seasons) when given the chance. He's a DL4/5 target in deep tackle-first leagues.

2007 Line: 3 (2 solo) – 0 SCK – 0 INT – 0 FR – 0 FF – 0 PASS DEF
Projection: 48 (25 solo) – 5 SCK – 0 INT – 2 FR – FF – 3 PASS DEF
2008 Rotoworld Rank: DL50

Others to Keep a Close Eye On: Lions RE Cliff Avril, Raiders REs Jay Richardson and Kalimba Edwards, Panthers LE Charles Johnson, Broncos LE Jarvis Moss, Steelers RE Brett Keisel, Titans LE Jevon Kearse, Chiefs LE Alfonso Boone, Rams RE Chris Long, Vikings LE Ray Edwards, Bears RE Alex Brown, Seahawks RE Darryl Tapp

[Hache Man]

Never too early for a Mock

If Memorial Day is the unofficial start to summer, then the first Mock Draft writeup is the unofficial start to draft season at Rotoworld. Sure, we're two months from training camp and three months from the biggest draft weekends. But the trends you see below are around to stay. Now is a good time for the certifiable fantasy nut to get a feel for 2008.

This draft was taken place a few weeks ago, for print in the first Krause Publications magazine. We participate in a slew of these magazine mocks, and will continue to highlight some in the coming months. This one used points-per-reception (PPR) scoring, and awarded six points for passing touchdowns – a system that devalues running backs. Do not underestimate how much this system changes strategy, especially with quarterbacks. Evan Silva represented Rotoworld.

Round One

1.01. John Culligan: Steven Jackson
1.02. Adam Caplan: LaDainian Tomlinson (RB SD)
1.03. Brandon Funston: Adrian Peterson (RB MIN)
1.04. Dave Richard: Brian Westbrook (RB PHI)
1.05. Dave Hunter: Tom Brady (QB NE)
1.06. Peter Shoenke: Joseph Addai (RB IND)
1.07. Greg Ambrosius: Ryan Grant (RB GB)
1.08. Evan Silva, Rotoworld: Randy Moss (WR NE)
1.09. Michael Fabiano: Larry Johnson (RB KC)
1.10. Tom Kessenich: Frank Gore (RB SF)
1.11 Unknown: Peyton Manning (QB IND)
1.12 John Hansen: Marion Barber (RB DAL)

Trends, Etc: A google search unearths that Culligan once was the co-winner of the World Championship of Fantasy Football. Winning that event takes original thinking and he definitely shows guts by taking Jackson over LT2. Tomlinson's career carries are getting up there, but this won't happen in most drafts. Jackson vs. Peterson vs. Westbrook will be a bigger debate usually. In a PPR league like this, Peterson's value takes a hit.

Deciding how high to rank Tom Brady is one of the toughest calls this season. This league uses six points per passing touchdown, so he's worth it this high. We'd put him and Manning lower if you get four per passing TD.

Round Two

2.01. Andre Johnson (WR HOU)
2.02. Clinton Portis (RB WAS)
2.03. Terrell Owens (WR DAL)
2.04. Marshawn Lynch (RB BUF)
2.05. Rotoworld: Reggie Wayne (WR IND)
2.06. Reggie Bush (RB NO)
2.07. Laurence Maroney (RB NE)
2.08. Willis McGahee (RB BAL)
2.09. Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)
2.10. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB JAC)
2.11. Tony Romo (QB DAL)
2.12. Marques Colston (WR NO)

Trends, Etc: In a PPR league, I'm surprised more receivers weren't taken in the second round. I found it interesting to see Andre Johnson go off the board second at the position. This was before his recent surgery, but it actually matches up with Rotoworld's early rankings. Looks like I wasn't being as bold as I thought.

For all his faults, Bush is a different asset in this format though so there is an argument for him going ahead of a top wideout. Maroney, on the other hand, had the same amount of catches as David Tyree last season: 4. 4!! In other news, Tom Brady threw 578 passes last year.

*** For analysis of the second half of this draft throughout the week, head over to Pancake Blocks.

Round Three

3.01. Steve Smith (WR CAR)
3.02. Braylon Edwards (WR CLE)
3.03. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR CIN)
3.04. Wes Welker (WR NE)
3.05. Torry Holt (WR STL)
3.06. Darren McFadden (RB OAK)
3.07. Brandon Marshall (WR DEN)
3.08. Rotoworld: Ronnie Brown (RB MIA)
3.09. Chad Johnson (WR CIN)
3.10. Earnest Graham (RB TB)
3.11. Plaxico Burress (WR NYG)
3.12. Drew Brees (QB NO)

Trends, Etc: A lot of the receivers I expected to go in round two fall here, including Marshall, Smith, Johnson and Edwards. I'll be sick of saying this by August, but I'm not overly worried about Ocho Cinco's potential holdout. He'll show up when it's time to get paid. … It's strange to say, but Holt belongs below the first tier of wideouts now.

Darren McFadden and Earnest Graham are the biggest risks of this round. I'd worry about them both sharing playing time.

Round Four

4.01. Antonio Gates (TE SD)
4.02. Jamal Lewis (RB CLE)
4.03. Anquan Boldin (WR ARI)
4.04. Carson Palmer (QB CIN)
4.05. Rotoworld: Brandon Jacobs (RB NYG)
4.06. Roy Williams (WR DET)
4.07. Hines Ward (WR PIT)
4.08. Willie Parker (RB PIT)
4.09. Derek Anderson (QB CLE)
4.10. Roddy White (WR ATL)
4.11. Michael Turner (RB ATL)
4.12. Thomas Jones (RB NYJ)

Trends, Etc: If Gates' value was hurt by his foot surgery, it wasn't by much. He still went a round in front of the other top tight ends. I'd slot Gates a round back with the other two.

My man Silva did a great job finding running back value with Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs to follow up a nasty Moss/Wayne wideout combo. Jacobs remains an injury-risk, but produces like a RB1 when he plays. … Anderson and Ward are the first two picks of the draft that make me say Goo. … Palmer is a good value here in this format.


Round Five

5.01. Jason Witten (TE DAL)
5.02. Marvin Harrison (WR IND)
5.03. Kellen Winslow (TE CLE)
5.04. Julius Jones (RB SEA)
5.05. Tony Gonzalez (TE KC)
5.06. Greg Jennings (WR GB)
5.07. Ben Roethlisberger (QB PIT)
5.08. Rotoworld: Donovan McNabb (QB PHI)
5.09. Santonio Holmes (WR PIT)
5.10. Matt Hasselbeck (QB SEA)
5.11. Dwayne Bowe (WR KC)
5.12. Calvin Johnson (WR DET)

Trends, Etc: It's tricky drafting in May, but this is about the right spot for Harrison. He's a top-20 receiver if he makes it to Week 1, which still looks likely. … Jennings and Holmes are great young receivers that suffer from the PPR format. … The quarterbacks go about as I'd expect them to in most leagues. I like the later-round QB1s than the values in this round.

There may be a committee in Seattle, but Julius Jones will be leading the way. … Tight ends in this group produced like WR2s last season, so it's appropriate that they go in the same round as some. Brodie Croyle scares me too much to go this high on Gonzo.

Round Six

6.01. Jonathan Stewart (RB CAR)
6.02. LenDale White (RB TEN)
6.03. Edgerrin James (RB ARI)
6.04. Chris Cooley (TE WAS)
6.05. Matt Forte (RB CHI)
6.06. Rudi Johnson (RB CIN)
6.07. Rotoworld – Lee Evans (WR BUF)
6.08. Justin Fargas (RB OAK)
6.09. Kevin Smith (RB FA)
6.10. Laveranues Coles (WR NYJ)
6.11. Travis Henry (RB DEN)
6.12. Marc Bulger (QB STL)

Trends, Etc: You see the sliding value of running backs in 2008 drafts here. White and James are clear-cut starters coming off relatively solid seasons. Stewart and Forte are high ceiling rookies. I think you are going to be able to pick and choose where you take running back talent this year. These players will probably go in round five with different scoring set up.

Rudi and Henry represent the first dip into the "Maybe they have a job, maybe they don't" pool. We'd rather steer clear of swimming there if you draft early.

Round Seven

7.01. Fred Taylor (RB JAC)
7.02. Kevin Curtis (WR PHI)
7.03. Chester Taylor (RB MIN)
7.04. Todd Heap (TE BAL)
7.05. Donald Driver (WR GB)
7.06. Dallas Clark (TE IND)
7.07. Chris Chambers (WR SD)
7.08. Rotoworld: Rashard Mendenhall (RB PIT)
7.09. Javon Walker (WR OAK)
7.10. Jerricho Cotchery (WR NYJ)
7.11. Jeremy Shockey (TE NYG)
7.12. DeAngelo Williams (RB CAR)

Trends, Etc: I'd expect guys like Heap and Shockey to last a little longer in non-PPR leagues. In this draft, players like Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels made it to round nine.

We start to see the first likely backups go off the board at running back (Williams, Chester Taylor). That may indicate that round six is a good time to get your RB3 because the drop-off seems severe. I was very surprised to see Javon Walker go this high. Pancake Block readers would agree.

Round Eight

8.01. Felix Jones (RB DAL)
8.02. Bobby Engram (WR SEA)
8.03. Bernard Berrian (WR MIN)
8.04. Cedric Benson (RB CHI)
8.05. Rotoworld: Heath Miller (TE PIT)
8.06. Donald Lee (TE GB)
8.07. Jay Cutler (QB DEN)
8.08. Donte' Stallworth (WR CLE)
8.09. Santana Moss (WR WAS)
8.10. Jerious Norwood (RB ATL)
8.11. Joey Galloway (WR TB)
8.12. Jerry Porter (WR JAC)

Trends, Etc: We get some of our favorite WR3 values (Santana Moss, Jerry Porter). Bobby Engram is an interesting case after a career season, but his role is likely to diminish this year. … With Michael Turner around, I don't see Jerious Norwood as the high ceiling backup that he's drafted as here. … Cutler is one of our favorite values at any position.

*** For analysis of the second half of this draft throughout the week, head over to Pancake Blocks.

[Hache Man]

Hanging with the Rookies

Each year I get to do something that very few journalists get a chance to do. Every third weekend of May, I get to travel to Los Angeles and watch 32 of the top NFL rookies put on their pro uniforms for the very first time. It's like watching kids in a candy store as these instant millionaires suddenly get the realization that they have actually arrived in the National Football League.

Since 1994, the NFL Players Association has organized what is called the Rookie Photo Shoot for the trading card companies. It's an event that was designed to give the card companies a chance to photograph the top rookies in their NFL uniforms before training camps begin so that they can get those rookie cards in their sets before the start of the NFL season. It's a great idea and one that has been good for the football card industry, good for the NFLPA and good for the players.

Now sponsored by Reebok and EA Sports, the Rookie Photo Shoot is held each year at the L.A. Coliseum and this year 32 skill-position rookies were on hand for the two-day event involving Upper Deck, Topps and Donruss/Playoff. Once in their new NFL uniforms for the first time, the players posed for the cameras, re-enacted game situations and even signed event-used memorabilia. They even took time to talk with fantasy writers like me, while continually checking their uniforms to make sure this wasn't a dream.

I've been to 15 of the 16 Rookie Photo Shoots since 1994 and I've interviewed everyone from a very shy Terrell Davis in 1995 to a very confident Marshawn Lynch in 2007. There are times when I've felt like I could predict the future with these guys after talking with them and seeing them in person, but many times I'm wrong as you can't judge the size of their heart with one interview.

I barely interviewed Davis in 1995 as he seemed too introverted to be successful and I stayed away from Koren Robinson and Plaxico Burress a few years later as both were way too "overconfident" for my liking. Sometimes you miss and sometimes your intuitions are right.

This year I'll give you some unique insights into the top rookie selections that I met in Los Angeles. Here are my Top 15 rookie selections, ranked in order of fantasy preference for the 2008 season:

1. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Al Davis grabbed McFadden fourth in the draft and will build his offense around this lightening-quick back with Justin Fargas in a reserve role. McFadden rushed for 1,830 yards last year at Arkansas and scored 16 TDs, but there is some concern that at 6'1", 217 pounds he may not be able to handle the physical play of the NFL. McFadden has an extremely strong upper body and hips, but I'll admit he has the skinniest calf muscles I've seen on an NFL back. oaklandraiders.com

Still, this is a back who seemed extremely confident to me – not overconfident either and he didn't bring an entourage of friends with him – and he's in an ideal situation to excel. He looks like he will run strong between the tackles and once he gets in the open field he could be as exciting as Adrian Peterson was last year. There's too much upside here to ignore.

2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Stewart was the most physically impressive rookie back in Los Angeles as he's a load at 5'10" and 233 pounds. Last year at Oregon, he ran for 1,722 yards and 11 TDs and he will replace DeShaun Foster as the every-down back in Carolina, with DeAngelo Williams coming in on passing situations. Stewart is also extremely confident in his abilities and he is stepping into a perfect situation with the Panthers as the 13th overall pick. Physically and mentally, this guy has what it takes to be the top rookie of 2008. carolinapanthers.com


3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: The Illinois star fell to 23rd overall and now will be in a platoon role with Willie Parker in Pittsburgh. It's not an ideal situation, but Mendenhall has the physical skills to steal more playing time away from Parker if he's not fully recovered from last year's broken leg. At 5'10", 225 pounds, Mendenhall is a load and I was impressed with his confidence when I met him. He looks like a young Jerome Bettis in his new No. 34 Steelers' uniform and he could carry the load there very, very soon.

4. Matt Forte, RB Bears: The Bears had Cedric Benson running with the first team at last week's mini-camp, but this second-round pick out of Tulane could steal that job away very soon. Forte rushed for 2,127 yards and 23 TDs last year at Tulane and at 6'1", 217 pounds he has the physical skills to carry the load. He's not as big as the top three rookie backs and he's not as fast as them, either, but he gains yards after contact. I think he'll platoon with Benson this year and give the Bears a much better ground game all around.

5. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: Jones played second fiddle to McFadden at Arkansas, but he still rushed for 1,162 yards and 11 TDs last year. He will turn out to be the perfect complement to Marion Barber in Dallas, getting 8-10 carries per game and being a solid receiver out of the backfield. He's quick as they come out of the backfield and he has better size than I expected at 6'0", 207 pounds. This guy is ecstatic to be going to Dallas and will be a worthy backup RB in fantasy football this season.

6. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: Smith led the nation last year at the University of Central Florida with 2,567 yards and 29 TDs, but he fell to the first pick in the third round because he's not fast and he's not overly strong. He has good size at 6'1", 217 pounds and he's going to a team that desperately needs a playmaker in the backfield, but I still think it will take some time before Smith emerges as a starter. His lack of explosiveness to the hole could keep him in a platoon role with Tatum Bell this year before he emerges as the starter later in the year. detroitlions.com

7. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: Okay, we finally found somebody who actually collects sports cards as Ryan admitted he did a little collecting in his younger years. Only a handful of players from this group ever collected cards, but we won't hold that against them. Ryan is as confident as they come and you could see how much he enjoyed having that Falcons' jersey on last weekend. atlantafalcons.com

He exudes confidence and at 6'4", 228 pounds he looks like the prototypical NFL QB. Ryan threw for 4,507 yards and 31 TDs last year at Boston College and even though he says that he just wants to fit in with the Falcons and will do whatever the coaches ask of him, you know deep down he has every intention of going there and starting at some point this year. I think Ryan is going to be special and down the road he will be a Top 10 fantasy QB. It just won't happen this year.

8. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: The Titans have had more top rookies at this event over the years than any team I can remember and they all look promising in pads, but do little on the field. Chris Brown. LenDale White. Chris Henry. tennesseetitans.com

Now Chris Johnson. The 5'11", 198-pounder rushed for 1,123 yards and 17 TDs last year at East Carolina and should be a good complement to White in Tennessee, but he doesn't look big enough to be an everydown back. I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade from Henry, which makes this a questionable first round pick for the Titans.

9. Devin Thomas, WR, Redskins: No wide receiver went in the first round this year and I can see why. There are a lot of smallish wideouts this year that could make impacts on special teams right away, but will struggle to make an impact in the NFL this year. washingtonredskins.com

The best candidate to make an impact, in my opinion, is Thomas, who went 34th overall after catching 79 passes for 1,260 yards and eight TDs last year at Michigan State. Thomas has good size (6'2", 216) and will battle with fellow rookie Malcolm Kelly for the No. 3 WR role. Thomas will be a worthy pickup this year and he will have more than his share of highlight-reel catches.

10. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo: Hardy was an interesting one to meet because weeks before this outing he had an altercation with his dad. But I'll say that he was an extremely nice and confident kid who may have the best chance to excel among any of the rookie wideouts. buffalobills.com

He should be the No. 3 wideout in Buffalo after catching 76 passes for 1,125 yards and 16 TDs last year at Indiana, and at 6'5", 217 pounds he was the most physically impressive wideout of the group. Keep an eye on this kid because he could be something special.

I'll close out my Top 15 with a quick comment on the next 5 rookies.

11. Limas Sweed, WR, Steelers: This second-round pick out of Texas looks like a younger, leaner Plaxico Burress. He's 6'4" with long arms, but needs even more meat on this 215-pound frame. In time, he could be a good one.

12. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Redskins: This Oklahoma wideout is a spittin' image of Thomas at 6'3", 224 pounds. These two could be 1-2 options in a few years. washingtonredskins.com

13. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: He's a tough bowling ball at 5'8" and 199 pounds who ran for 2,012 yards and 24 TDs last year at Rutgers. He should be a good backup in Baltimore, but it's hard to imagine him being an every-down back anytime soon with Willis McGahee in the fold. He sure is a nice, nice kid who has a great attitude and I'll be pulling for him. baltimoreravens.com

14. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets: He's extremely short for a tight end (6'2" seemed generous) and will likely be used more in pass catching situations. I don't see him becoming an every-down tight end anytime soon. newyorkjets.com

15. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Jackson is as quick as they come in this rookie class, but he's also among the smallest at 5'9", 169 pounds. It's hard to imagine Jackson getting off the line of scrimmage easily or going across the middle for catches in the NFL. He looked small even among the journalists, which is saying something.

All in all, this class likely won't rank among the top half that I've seen since 1994, but there are enough potential stars at RB to make things interesting this Draft Day. And in time, these wideouts could emerge as a solid group. They just won't star right away.

[Hache Man]

Minicamp Matters

There is no hitting at minicamps, or any offseason activities prior to training camp for that matter. We can take only a few things from these workouts: preliminary depth chart news, which is only somewhat helpful because players aren't necessarily "competing" yet, and how receiver-to-quarterback combinations "look." Passing is featured in June workouts. All linemen do is hand fight. There are no tackles for running backs to break.

Here are seven topics we can reasonably keep track of during the upcoming month. Don't use this to draft your fantasy team, but how these situations develop will help us know what to expect come training camp, which begins the last week of July. I promise not to make one mention of Jason Taylor, Brian Urlacher, or Cowboys SS Roy Williams. Enough is enough already.

Broncos RB Pecking Order with Travis Henry Sidelined

With Henry out all next week and possibly until the end of the month, it will be interesting to see how practice carries are divvied up. Selvin Young is first in line, but rookie Ryan Torain is fully recovered from his senior-year Lisfranc injury and in the thick of it. Will Torain go second behind Young or third behind Young and Andre Hall? And where will newly signed Michael Pittman fit in? The Broncos are unlikely to carry more than four tailbacks into the season. One of the above must go.

I personally do not believe Henry will be a Bronco in Week 1. He's one missed/failed drug test from a year-long suspension, unreliable physically, and the only running back on Denver's current roster that doesn't contribute on special teams. If Henry fails to clearly separate himself from the pack, which he obviously cannot due while nursing a hamstring strain, he's not going to help Mike Shanahan's club.

And as for the notion that the Broncos' zone-blocking scheme "just isn't that effective anymore" or "has been figured out" and should be avoided by fantasy owners, that's simply false. Though the last two years have been unpredictable due to rotating Bells and Henry's suspension situation, Denver finished in the top eight in yards-per-carry both seasons. Last year, the Broncos ranked third overall.

Seahawks Wideout Clutter

Coach Mike Holmgren consistently transforms mediocre wideouts into big-time producers in his pass-friendly West Coast offense. This year should be no different. Holmgren needs three (flanker, split end, slot) starters to emerge from a cast of Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Chas Gessner, Jordan Kent, Ben Obomanu, Logan Payne, and Courtney Taylor.

Since wide receiver is the position we can get the best feel for during the minicamp process, expect some interesting Seahawks posts on the Rotoworld news page. These seven competitors are definitely worth getting to know. Engram and Burleson are the biggest names of the group, but don't discount Payne, Taylor, Obomanu, or Kent. For now, Engram is penciled in at flanker with Burleson at the X. Payne is getting an early look in the slot.

The Ronnie Vs. Ricky Split
miamidolphins.com
Ricky Williams came out of his first face-to-face meeting with new Dolphins VP of football operations Bill Parcells feeling like a committee member. Parcells and head coach Tony Sparano have a history of using RBBCs. It's early, but looks like that trend will continue in Miami. And it's probably a good idea considering Ronnie Brown is coming off a torn ACL and Williams a torn pectorals. Both are healthy now, so keep an eye on how practice carries are split. If Ricky and Ronnie are sharing work with the first team at minicamps, it'll be an indication of the Dolphins' plans for training camp and the season.

Also keep track of gifted Toledo product Jalen Parmele, one of the first draft picks to sign a rookie contract. At 6'0/221 with plenty of speed, Parmele has the skill set to be a factor if Brown or Williams experiences a setback. Williams has just six NFL carries since 2005 and two season-ending injuries over that span (including his broken arm in the CFL), so he's no sure bet to last long.

Reggie Williams Rising
jacksonvillejaguars.com
Williams topped our preliminary fantasy busts list because his ten touchdowns in 2007 were fluky. The 2004 first-round pick started only six games and was buried at 65th in the league in red-zone targets. Williams converted five of those nine targets for scores, but caught more than two passes in just six contests. He has yet to top 650 receiving yards in a season.

We're a bit more optimistic now that Williams is running as the starting flanker in coordinator Dirk Koetter's vertical attack. With a 16.6 yards-per-catch average and 13 plays of 20 yards or more in 2007, Williams showed surprising downfield ability and may be coming into his own in that area. While Koetter's offense should remain run-heavy because that's where the Jags' best talent is, Williams' outlook would be much brighter with a set role. See if there are more reports on how the Jags plan to rotate their wideouts and if '07 third-rounder Mike Walker can ever return from his chronic knee condition.

Does it Matter that Cedric Benson has Slimmed Down?

Benson claims he changed his offseason diet and naturally lost weight. He's roughly 10 pounds lighter and reportedly looking quicker than ever. This may be typical summer fluff, especially with ultra promising second-round pick Matt Forte added to Chicago's backfield. Still, Benson desperately needed another step and perhaps he's added one by shedding the lbs.

Coach Lovie Smith says Benson remains the Bears' starter, if only because he's the incumbent. But many coaches will say this time of the year that all positions are up for competition. Lovie didn't and that at least means something. Smith could be trying to build up Ced-B en's confidence or is just being his loyal self. This battle won't play out until August, but more positive reports about Benson's fitness and speed would be welcomed by his many destitute dynasty owners.

Brandon Marshall's Due Date

The AFC's best run-after-the-catch receiver appears to be recovering ahead of schedule from offseason arm surgery. Marshall's cast was removed in early April and he ran routes during mid-May voluntary workouts, defying original projections. But Marshall suffered nerve damage in the arm, isn't catching passes yet, and his legs weren't the problem anyway.

Coach Mike Shanahan expects Marshall to be cleared for receiving drills by June 22. There was initial concern about Marshall's status for Week 1, but the 22nd would be over a month before the start of training camp. If he participates to the extent Shanahan anticipates, Marshall's recovery will be well ahead of schedule. Also monitor reports of how Marshall looks. If he hasn't lost feeling in the arm and avoids drops, Marshall can safely be considered among the top ten fantasy picks at his position.

Ravens Receiver Shakedown
baltimoreravens.com
Demetrius Williams has been the Ravens' most intriguing receiver since he was drafted in the 2006 fourth round. He's a deep threat with good size (6'2/197), but has struggled to stay consistent as a pro. Williams has to intrigue new Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who like mentor Norv Turner loves bigguns at wideout. However, an Achilles' tendon injury has limited Williams early on. Healthy incumbent Mark Clayton, who goes 5'10/195 and isn't too dissimilar from former Cameron disciple Eric Parker, appears the favorite to start opposite Derrick Mason as it stands. But Cameron wants to use three receivers in his base set this year, and ideally the three-wide look will consist of Williams, Mason, and Clayton.

The sleeper in all this is 6'2/212-pound rookie Marcus Smith, a fourth-round pick from New Mexico. Williams has Smith to worry about just for the third receiver position. It's hard to imagine much production coming out of Baltimore's passing game in Cameron's debut season, but the one-time Dolphins head coach has been known to quickly develop players before. This is a situation to monitor in deep leagues.

[Hache Man]

Henry and June
The Shanahanigans in Denver are off to an early start this season. The Broncos coach, lovingly known for throwing curveballs at running back to fantasy leaguers, cut presumptive starter Travis Henry Monday.

The timing was a surprise, but the end result wasn't. Our own Evan Silva wrote last week he didn't expect Henry to make the Denver final roster. This completes a swift decline for a player taken in the first round of 2007 fantasy drafts, and it leaves a hole in a traditional fantasy football goldmine. Let's dig to see who will get the value now.

Selvin Young

ESPN's John Clayton revealed Monday that Henry was cut largely because he didn't react well to being demoted behind Young. (Henry simply stopped showing up to work after learning the news). While the Mastermind may have ulterior motives, Young's early starter status is a sign that his 2008 ceiling was underestimated.

Shanahan created a stir early in February by saying Young was a 10-15 touch-per-game back; a complementary player. Young's injury history and skill set partly supports the claim, and fantasy leaguers swallowed the quote whole as gospel. Looking back, perhaps Shanahan was attempting to motivate Young to prove him wrong.

Young entered minicamp season breathing fire, saying his goal was to top 2,000 yards this season. While that number is unattainable, Henry's release allows Young a chance to be an every-week fantasy starter.

He's hardly without talent. Young finished fifth in the NFL in yards-per-carry with a 5.2 average as a rookie. He excels as a receiver, but runs through tacklers with great power for his size. Young must prove he has the staying power of a workhorse back, but the opportunity is there.

Since unpredictability can still be expected in Denver, we wouldn't draft Young before the fifth round. He's unlikely to start 16 games, but I'd bet on him putting up quality fantasy starter numbers for a portion of the year. He's an intriguing boom-or-bust early RB3 pick.

Michael Pittman

Pittman is perhaps the signature third-down back of his generation. Denver coaches will not expect him to suddenly start carrying a team at age 33. Pittman comes from a similar system in Tampa, so the transition should be smooth, even if his ceiling is limited.

At best, Pittman will split the workload with one of Denver's young backs. He could act as a spot starter if injuries strike, but the Broncos would rather see their young players emerge. It's more likely that Pittman will get to help on passing downs and see a handful of carries each week. Pittman's place on the team is secure and a target of 40-50 catches and 75 carries is reasonable. He has stand-alone fantasy value in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues and extra value as a possible handcuff. We wouldn't go higher than a RB4/5 pick. He currently has a thirteenth-round grade in our online draft guide, coming out this week!

Ryan Torain

The wildcard. Reuben Droughns, Mike Bell, and Young have emerged from obscurity to be fantasy assets this decade, and Torain could be next. In fact, he has a better resume than they did as a fifth-round pick (they were undrafted), whom Shanahan said has "first-round ability."

The Broncos do not cut Henry unless they are confident in both Young and Torain. Like Young, there are durability questions about Torain, who missed most of last season with a foot injury. Otherwise, he fits perfectly into the Denver running back recipe:

1 part tackle breaking ability
1 part decisiveness hitting a hole with explosion
1 part sub-par long speed that overly knocks draft stock

In my early industry drafts, I was surprised to see Torain slipping to the twelfth or thirteenth rounds. Sure, he's an unknown. But when taking lottery tickets late in drafts, I prefer the ones with the biggest prize. Torain owners could hit the jackpot for a cheap price. We have him graded as a worthwhile RB4 gamble.

Andre Hall

Hall is probably ahead of Torain on the depth chart for now, but ultimately he's a fourth-stringer. He's listed here because he'd be the only truly shocking Week 1 starter, and Denver is always good for a few surprises. Hall did show NFL skills with a 4.9 yards-per-carry average last year.

Like the rest of the Denver backfield, Hall is worth monitoring all summer. Values will fluctuate between now and Week 1, and fantasy leaguers are along for the ride. That's more than we can say for Travis Henry

[Hache Man]

Picking your Spots

What would you do if someone let you pick your draft spot for 2008? You know, you just entered your favorite league and the commissioner came out and said, "Johnny, where would you like to draft from this year? Pick a spot, any spot and it's yours."

Well, your first reaction would be astonishment and then you'd figure out that having the first pick in ANY fantasy football league has to be a good thing, right? You'd probably take the first pick and worry about the other rounds later, right? You'd have the best player in fantasy football and build around the best cornerstone in the game.

In our new NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship, we kind of give you this option. Okay, it's not as good as the scenario above, but you get the idea. We've always wondered why game operators just force you to draft from the spot they give you and not allow a little more strategy in this area of the game. So in the NBC FFC, we allow you to rank your draft preferences and then we seed all teams accordingly after we randomly pick each league, just like they do in the Kentucky Derby. We call this system KDS for Kentucky Derby System.

Here's how it works and then we'll analyze the strategy behind this and how you can learn something from earlier satellite leagues:

1. We randomly pick the order of each league, 12 teams per league.

2. We then look at the KDS preference of Team No. 1. If they want the first pick, we place them there. We then look at the second pick and look at their KDS preference. If they had 1 first and 2 second, then we seed them second since the first pick was already taken. We then look at the third team and if they had 4 as their first preference we seed them fourth. We do this for all 12 teams until a new draft order is formed.

3. We've been doing this for the past two years now in the National Fantasy Football Championship and teams on average move up about 2.5 spots than if we had just left everything random. The average KDS preference that each team gets is 4.5, which means they usually get their fourth or fifth preference.

One way we add to this concept in the new NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship is by using 3RR, which stands for Third Round Reversal. In our new contest, we go 1-12 in Round 1 and 12-1 in Round 2, but then go back to the bottom to start Round 3, again going 12-1. From Round 4 through Round 20, we continue serpentine 1-12 and 12-1. By reversing the third round, we provide more value to the bottom draft slots. And since people can now use KDS to select their favored draft slots, the combination of KDS/3RR provides a mix of favored spots for everyone involved.

Okay, here's an example of a recent pay NFFC Satellite League using KDS/3RR. These are 14-team leagues, so 3RR really helps the end picks in this format. Here are the 14 preferences used by the owners in this money league, ranked in most preferred to least preferred:

2,3,1,4,5,14,13,12,11,8,7,6,10,9
10,11,12,13,14,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
1,12,14,13,11,2,3,4,5,10,9,8,7,6
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,14,13,12,11,10
1,2,3,4,5,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6
1,2,3,4,5,6,14,13,12,11,9,8,7,10
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
5,4,3,2,1,6,7,14,13,12,11,10,9,8
1,2,14,13,3,12,4,11,10,5,6,7,8,9
1,3,2,4,5,6,13,14,12,11,10,7,9,8
1,2,3,4,5,7,14,13,12,11,10,6,8,9
1,2,3,4,7,8,14,13,12,11,5,6,10,9
1,2,3,4,5,14,13,12,6,7,8,9,10,11
1,2,3,4,5,14,13,12,6,7,8,9,10,11

Here's some interesting facts from this league:

** The average KDS preference obtained was 5.4, which is a bit higher than other leagues. Not everyone got the draft spot they wanted, but most still improved their draft spot.

** Two owners got their first preference and three owners got their second preference. However, owners also got their 9th preference, 11th preference and 12th preference.

** 11 of 14 owners took No. 1 as their first preference and eight owners started with 1,2,3,4,5 as their first five choices. Two other owners also had the top five picks as their top five choices, just in a different order. Interestingly, those who didn't select 1 as their first preference chose 2, 5 and 10 first. Very interesting.

So why were so many KDS preferences similar to start out? It's obvious that these owners feel the top five running backs are worth chasing if at all possible. They may not agree on the exact order of these backs, but it's obvious that most of them want LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson or Joseph Addai to build their teams around. After that, folks don't mind dropping to the bottom of the order to get three of the Top 30 picks.

Interestingly, with 3RR nine owners have pick No. 14 in their top half of preferences. At that spot, the owner will get the 14th, 15th and 29th picks. And if you look at early Cheat Sheets, owners can still get one or two good running backs there and at least one or two star wide receivers. Going RB-WR-WR is a solid strategy this year from down there.

From early drafts, No. 6 is the most interesting pick of the first round. After the top five players, some folks like Frank Gore with Mike Martz now running that offense in San Francisco. But on our Mock Draft ADP list, Gore is currently ranked 11th. Topping out the first round from 6-14 on our ADP lists are:
6. Tom Brady
7. Randy Moss
8. Larry Johnson
9. Marion Barber
10. Ryan Grant
11. Frank Gore
12. Willis McGahee
13. Terrell Owens
14. Marshawn Lynch

When making out your KDS preferences, look at how the second and third rounds will play out as well because you may like certain spots better than others if you target certain players. Some folks like to start out WR-WR-RB, or even WR-WR-WR in our PPR league and thus love to move down in the draft order to the back end. Target players you want early and then set your KDS accordingly to build the foundation of a winning fantasy football team in 2008.

This is just another twist to this great game we all enjoy and we'll use KDS/3RR in all of our live events and the NBC Sports and NFFC Satellite Leagues. It might not be a twist for everyone, but in our high-stakes format we feel that empowering the owners with as much control as possible is a good thing. After all, Johnny may just like pick No. 14 this year instead of pick No. 1 and KDS allows Johnny that choice. Now that's a good thing.

[Hache Man]

Be Part Of The Brady Bunch
Tom Brady had a season for the ages last year, one that may not be duplicated anytime soon. He set an NFL record with 50 TD passes, while adding 4,806 yards passing with only eight interceptions. Fantasy teams that took Brady last year were golden as he truly was Tom Terrific, the Golden Boy of Fantasy Football.

This year, Brady's stature as the best quarterback in fantasy football is being elevated to new heights. He's not only going as the first QB drafted in off-season mock drafts, he's going in the Top 10 overall in most drafts. His Average Draft Position on MockDraftCentral.com is sixth as he's become the third QB in the last 10 years to go this high early on. In 2002, Kurt Warner was a consensus Top 5 pick and in 2005 Peyton Manning was a Top 10 pick.
indianapoliscolts.com
Unfortunately, fantasy teams get no bonus points this year for last year's stats. Brady may go high on Draft Day, but there's no guarantee that he will come close to last year's record-setting numbers. In fact, history says that he probably won't come close to those numbers in 2008.

Let's look at Warner and Manning for further proof. Warner was the league MVP in 2001 when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl with 36 TD passes and 4,830 yards. The next year, he struggled through seven injury-riddled games and finished with 3 TD passes and 1,431 yards. In 2004, Peyton Manning was the league MVP as he finished with a then-NFL record 49 TD passes and 4,557 yards. In 2005, he was good but not great, finishing with 28 TD passes and 3,747 yards.

Now despite those two examples, there is precedent for a QB playing at an MVP level like Brady did last year and maintaining that excellence over time. Brett Favre greenbaypackers.com is the NFL's only three-time MVP and he accomplished that in three straight seasons. In 1995, he threw for 4,413 yards and 38 TDs. He followed that up in 1996 with 3,899 yards and 39 TDs as the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, and in 1997 he won his third MVP award by throwing for 3,867 yards and 35 TDs. He didn't even fall off in 1998 as he finished with 4,212 yards and 31 TDs as Terrell Davis won the league MVP award.

Brady could easily follow up his MVP season of 2007 with another MVP-caliber performance. He has the weapons to excel with Randy Moss and Wes Welker leading the passing attack, and Laurence Maroney stabilizing the running game. He has the best offensive line in football. He has the most innovative head coach in the game who loves to pour on the points no matter what the score is. He stays healthy and releases the ball before he takes too much of a hit – other than the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, that is. The offense is built around Brady and the schedule is very much in New England's favor this year, so everything is set up for him to have another good year on a team that is favored to win this year's Super Bowl.

But now for the $100,000 question: Can you really win a fantasy football league title by taking Brady – or ANY quarterback for that matter – with a Top 10 pick? I mean, with fantasy football success concentrated so heavily on securing a stud running back, another good running back and wideouts who catch a lot of passes and score a lot of TDs, can you really win with a quarterback as your franchise foundation? Talk to me. Can it happen and will it happen in 2008?

Half of the congregation is shouting "HALLELUJAH!!" The other half is shaking their heads in disbelief. I, personally, can't take a QB that high as it's like taking a starting pitcher in the first round of a baseball draft. You're always chasing offensive stats after that. But I will admit that I do see reasons for Brady being a worthy Top 10 pick this year. Let's analyze the data and then come up with a solid conclusion.

Here's the data and analysis:
** POINT: Last year in the National Fantasy Football Championship where TD passes are worth 6 points each, Brady scored 550.1 points, or an average of 34.3 points per game. Tony Romo was second at 430.7 points or 7.4 fewer points per game. Every other quarterback except for Romo and Peyton Manning was at least 10 points per game behind Brady and the second-tier starting QBs were as much as 15 points per game behind Brady. He dominated this position like nobody else.

** COUNTERPOINT: Last year in the NFFC his ADP was 45, so on average he was an early to mid fourth-round pick. He was selected behind Manning, Carson Palmer and Drew Brees last year, but this year he's going ahead of all other QBs, all WRs and all but a handful of RBs. That's a lot to live up to and he better come back with 25+ points per game this year to live up to that draft spot. If you project Brady to have 35+ TD passes this year, then taking him in the first round is justified. But if he slips to 25-28 TD passes, then it will be a pick that won't blossom into a championship season.

** POINT: That being said, the QB position may be as weak and unpredictable as any in recent memory. There is a top tier of 6-7 QBs and after that it falls off quickly and hard. Put Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, Palmer, Derek Anderson clevelandbrowns.com and maybe Ben Roethlisberger in that top tier and go get one of them if you can this year. After that, Matt Hasselbeck has promise, but then you're looking at Eli Manning, Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, David Garrard and Philip Rivers sandiegochargers.com as your starting QB. There are just too many question marks with each of those second-tier QBs to wait too long to secure your top QB there. With that in mind, Brady looks even better in the first round.

** COUNTERPOINT: To win with Brady as your first-round pick, you MUST correctly make your next two picks for sure. You almost have to take an RB in the second round and that RB has to work out well. And if you are in a Point-per-Reception league, you need to find a top WR in the third or fourth round and keep getting value after that. Trying to gain back those points at RB that others are getting with their first-round picks is tough, but you can do it with solid picks in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. Then when others are scrambling for a QB, you are taking the best RBs and WRs. But again, it's tough and you need to target the right guys in Rounds 2 and 3 if you take Brady first.

** POINT: You can't win a league with your first-round pick, but you certainly can lose it. Let's think of some names that cost us titles last year: Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Bush, Travis Henry. Yikes. Brady is so consistent that he will get you first-round points that will allow you to contend for a title. You won't win this year's title because of Brady, but you will create a solid foundation for your franchise with Brady.

** COUNTERPOINT: The key to Brady's success this year is Randy Moss's health and attitude. Can Moss really play in 2008 with the same desire and fire and tenacity that he had in 2007? If he does, then Brady is Tom Terrific again. If not, then that lessens Brady's value, Welker's value and everyone else's value on this team. No QB is more tied to one of his wideouts than Tom Brady, and that includes Carson Palmer with Chad Johnson and Romo with T.O. Brady NEEDS Moss again this year and so do you if you take Brady in the first round.

So there you have it. There are lots of good reasons to take Brady sixth or seventh overall. There are also lots of good reasons to hope he falls to the end of the first round. The bottom line is that if you feel confident enough that you can secure your RB and WR positions AFTER taking Brady in the first round, then go for it. He won't disappoint you in 2008.

[Hache Man]

Minicamp Tour: Wideout Drama
Rotoworld continues to rank Chad Johnson as if his offseason drama isn't happening. The best way to deal with bad behavior is to ignore it.

Since Day 1, we have believed that Johnson will show up to work well before it's time to get paid. And once he's on the field, he'll perform like a top-10 wide receiver, like he always does. Johnson's adventures at minicamp convinced us more than ever that this is the right approach for fantasy leaguers to take.

It's as if Ocho Cinco wants to pull a T.O., but he doesn't have the heart to go that loco. By the final minicamp practice, Johnson was practicing fully with the first team. He was discussing how to improve plays with Carson Palmer. There are bound to be headlines coming out of Johnson's mouth in the coming season, but don't expect it to affect the box scores.

***

This is the second part of my minicamp wrapup. I looked at the the AFC East and North last week, and now will focus on the AFC West and South.

AFC West

Oakland Raiders: Javon Walker was having a rough offseason even before being found unconscious on a Las Vegas street Monday with an orbital bone (eye socket) fracture. It's too early to understand the long-term implications, but this is a serious setback. Walker was already being chided in Oakland for being out of shape. I wondered his conditioning was simply the effect of his knee injuries making him look slow. Hopefully he can recover from this latest setback, but he's been through a lot over the last two years. We were already skeptically of a rebound. oaklandraiders.com

Rotoworld man-crush Ronald Curry is back from surgery to remove a bone spur in his foot. With Walker's abilities uncertain, Curry still could emerge as a big factor in Oakland this season. He needs to stay healthy and have JaMarcus Russell develop; one of the two will probably fall short. We rank him as a WR4, but ahead of Walker. … I am not buying the Drew Carter hype. He has a role in the offense, but he's exactly the type of player to look good in faux football practices that take place in shorts and t-shirts. … Russell's offseason work was reportedly inconsistent. Dynasty leaguers have to worry that he's improving his short game in a West Coast offense, then may have to re-learn a brand new system when Al Davis inevitably pushes Lane Kiffin out the door. … Michael Bush's strong offseason only further clouds the value of Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. This could be a three-man committee. Look for the Raiders to be among the most run-heavy teams in the league.

Denver Broncos: Mike Shanahan didn't wait for training camp to lay surprises on us at running back. The latest was second-year pro Andre Hall running as Selvin Young's backup at minicamp. Michael Pittman, who figures to be a third-down back, was going third. Rookie Ryan Torain was fourth. Torain remains the most likely candidate other than Young to start in 2008, but this depth chart was a good reminder to be prepared for anything. If Hall can maintain his spot until late August, which we doubt, he's going to be draftable in fantasy leagues after the first 100 picks.

Brandon Marshall is expected to begin catching passes with two hands on June 22. Early reports regarding his progress from surgery to repair nerve damage in his arm have been positive. If all goes well in August, he will be in our top ten receivers. … No unit has received more puff pieces this offseason than the newfangled Denver receiver corps. My early take is that Keary Colbert has a legitimate chance to knock off Darrell Jackson for a starting job. And the winner either way is a sleeper. Brandon Stokley better stay healthy or he risks losing playing time to them or rookie Eddie Royal. … The boot is off Tony Scheffler's foot, but he wasn't 100% before practices ended. He's one of the injured players to watch closely in July.

Kansas City Chiefs: We didn't learn much from Chiefs minicamp, but we know Larry Johnson is healthy enough to practice every day. His value is causing a plenty of debate, but the majority of drafters aren't that concerned about him bouncing back. He's going in the top ten. Rotoworld has him at the end of the second round because the Chiefs offense should still be among the league's worst. … Devard Darling is the favorite to start opposite Dwayne Bowe, but rookies Will Franklin and Marcus Price have a shot. At least Bowe has Tony Gonzalez and Johnson to deflect attention. … Damon Huard could be used as trade bait. He's fallen behind Tyler Thigpen on the depth chart. Because I don't trust Brodie Croyle to be particularly healthy or productive, Thigpen will probably start some games this season. kansascitychiefs.com

San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates' foot is a greater concern than Philip Rivers' knee. It would be a great upset if Rivers doesn't play in Week 1, even if his play is diminished. Gates is a total mystery and isn't even running yet. We projected a "Big three" at tight end that includes Gates, Jason Witten, and Kellen Winslow. Gates needs to show something by mid-August or lose his place atop that group. … If Gates misses any playing time, Vincent Jackson will benefit like he did in the playoffs last season. … LT2 owners looking for a handcuff should currently go for rookie Jacob Hester. Darren Sproles is just a role player. sandiegochargers.com

AFC South

Houston Texans: Not a lot of news in minicamp season at running back for Houston, where five players are angling for playing time. Ahman Green is legitimately healthy, and he'll have to stay that way to keep his starting job. Steve Slaton looks likely to handle passing down work. Chris Taylor is the player most likely to rise from deep within the depth chart. Chris Brown lingers. There is potential here, but I'd only take a Texan back as a RB4 or flier. … Jacoby Jones, the sleeper from a year ago, appears to have passed Andre Davis on the depth chart again. He has an outside chance to pass Kevin Walter for a starting job, which would put him back on the radar.

Indianapolis Colts: When the news about Marvin Harrison broke, I thought we had another Michael Vick story going, with daily updates and tiring intrigue to follow. Instead, the case has been silent until the Philadelphia D.A. asked for more evidence Monday. That's a good sign for Harrison because the city officials don't believer their case against Harrison (or whoever is charged) is strong enough yet. The Colts are cautiously optimistic Harrison will be ready for the season physically. I'm now cautiously optimistic the NFL will let Harrison play. indianapoliscolts.com

Harrison's status is the biggest issue hanging in Fantasy Nation heading into camp. His availability will drastically change value for Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark. … If you are looking for a deeeep sleeper, Colts No. 4 receiver Roy Hall isn't a bad one. … Dominic Rhodes should be considered the slight favorite to backup Joseph Addai, but don't assume Kenton Keith and Mike Hart are out of the running.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Williams appears to have locked up a starting job, which makes him borderline draftworthy in fantasy leagues. Most will still overrate him. Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker will cut up that pie. … Word in Jacksonville is that they are expecting a huge season from Jerry Porter. His nagging hamstring injury this summer is a concern, but only if it lingers into training camp. … Former first-round pick Matt Jones could be in his final months with the team. Troy Williamson and Mike Walker look like better bets to make the club. … Fullback Greg Jones is now two years removed from his latest ACL surgery, so he's a bigger threat to steal goal-line work from Maurice Jones-Drew. jacksonvillejaguars.com

Tennessee Titans: It doesn't appear Brandon Jones' arrest will get him kicked off the team. He still has a chance to start this season, but Justin Gage and Justin McCareins are the current favorites. With the Williams trio also in the mix (Roydell, Mike, and Paul), there is no predicting how this group will shake out. Stay away from the whole situation. … Despite some positive offseason press, third running back Chris Henry may not even be active on Sundays for Tennessee. … I'm not convinced Alge Crumpler will be a good fantasy starter again, but he has enjoyed his healthiest offseason in three years. tennesseetitans.com

[Hache Man]

Evaluating The RB-RB Approach
There used to be several universal truths in this world. Death. Taxes. Alyssa Milano could make anything worth watching and if you don't believe me I have four words for you:

"Embrace of the Vampire."

Meanwhile, in fantasy football, you always drafted a running back with your first two picks. Always.

The savvy fantasy owners have begun to alter their approach in recent years. They realize that going RB-RB to start your draft is no longer a guarantee of success. With more teams going to Running Back By Committee situations, there are fewer unquestioned three-down backs and there are also a larger number of running backs who can generate viable to much greater production on a weekly basis.

For example, two of the past three overall champions in the National Fantasy Football Championship have gone RB-WR to start their draft. Last year's champs Ryan Welch and Jeremy Jurwitz did go RB-RB to start but when their second-round pick, Thomas Jones, disappointed, it was their WR depth of Marques Colston (third round) and Plaxico Burress (fourth) which provided much greater fantasy returns during the year.

So what's a fantasy owner to do this year? It may depend on where you're slotted in the first round.

According to Average Draft Position data on MockDraftCentral.com, RBs continued to dominate the early portions of NFFC drafts. Of the first 20 picks, only six non-RBs were being taken (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo). So NFFC owners picking in the 10-14 range of the first round appear more inclined at this time to go RB-RB with their first two picks.

That has resulted in a flurry of WRs being taken by the owners with one of the first nine picks in their draft. Wide receivers are currently dominating overall picks 20-30 in NFFC drafts. Consider:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP of 21)
Larry Fitzgerald (22) arizonacardinals.com
Braylon Edwards (23)
Andre Johnson (25)
Chad Johnson (28)
Steve Smith (29) carolinapanthers.com
Marques Colston (30)

So rather than reaching for a RB in the second round they may not like, NFFC owners with a Top 9 pick are leaning toward grabbing a strong WR option to pair with their first-round RB. That's a strategy I would employ as well and have in most of my drafts so far. But there is one RB who has me leaning back toward the RB-RB approach.

Reggie Bush.

In a full PPR league, taking Bush in the second round is a strong move. I passed on doing that in our KP1 Expert League draft in May, taking Terrell Owens instead of Bush to team with Frank Gore, who I selected with the 10th pick in the first round. However, one month later in the FantasyGuru.com Experts Draft, I also had the 10th pick and after taking Ryan Grant in the first round, I went with Bush in the second and then grabbed a pair of WRs (Torry Holt and Plaxico Burress) in the third and fourth rounds.

In looking at the two teams, I prefer the approach I utilized in the FantasyGuru draft. While TO is a stud receiver, having Bush as my RB2 in a PPR league has tremendous value and potential in my opinion.

While Bush has been a disappointment as a runner in his first two seasons, the one thing he has proven without question is he'll gobble up the receptions. He caught 88 in his rookie season and had 73 in 12 games last year. So in his first two seasons, he has averaged 5.75 receptions per game. In a PPR league, that has huge value as a RB2 if you can get it.

So if you're in a full PPR league or an NFFC league (which awards .5 points/reception for RBs), taking Bush in the second makes RB-RB a very viable strategy this year. But if Bush is off the board, I would lean toward taking one of the top WRs in the second round. Given the depth at the RB position this year, you can go RB-WR and still find a quality RB2 in the third or maybe even the fourth round. Among the options there in NFFC drafts so far have been:

Ronnie Brown (ADP of 31) miamidolphins.com
Maurice Jones-Drew (32)
Earnest Graham (33) Tampabaybuccaneers.com
Michael Turner (35) atlantafalcons.com
Edgerrin James (38)
Darren McFadden (52) oaklandraiders.com
Thomas Jones (54)

With RBs like that available in the third and fourth rounds, it's become easier to shift away from the hardcore RB-RB approach which has defined fantasy football drafts for so long. Toss in Tom Brady's emergence as a probable first-round pick and this year, more than any in recent memory, we could see a lot of variety in the early rounds of drafts.

All of that is making the 2008 season one of the most fascinating to watch from a fantasy perspective

[Hache Man]

Chad Johnson mending fences
I promise to stop posting about what dribbles out of Chad Johnson's mouth soon. But his latest interview on Bengals.com is the best proof yet that Ocho Cinco is in full-blown fence-mending mode. I've long said that I plan to draft Johnson as if this offseason drama never happened. (He's ranked seventh at wideout in our draft guide). And these comments are the best proof yet that he's not going to cause more problems.

On showing up to training camp: "Come on," he said. "Did you really think I wouldn't come?"

On Carson Palmer and hitting big numbers: "He looked at film and looked at the things we missed on from Week 1 to Week 16 and he said 1,800 (yards) was reachable if we're perfect. Of course, Carson and I were off on plays we usually clicked. We left a lot of plays on the field. We talked about what he and I need to do starting in July. We have a lot of work to do."

Brilliant move by Palmer. Appeal to Johnson's need for stats to get him in line. I wouldn't be surprised if he said something like, "Think about the money you can make once I get you 1,800 yards."

My favorite part of this interview is that Johnson admits how poorly he played last year. Even though the numbers were there, he was inconsistent and reportedly blew a lot of assignments.

"I wasn't right. I wasn't technical enough. Nowhere near as sound as I have been. For what a (multi) Pro Bowl veteran should be. I was very inconsistent. ... I played very poorly. Coach Brat is probably the only person who can get in my face and tell me that. Or Carson," Johnson said.

"I look at it and say, 'Damn, I did this. I did that,' " he said. "But that's not what he's looking for. He's not looking at the numbers. He's looking at the times I was inconsistent. Even if I do mess up, I should be able to make a play. But I couldn't with the screwups I was making."

Johnson admits that he was doing his best to get booted: "I did everything under the sun to get out of here. I acted psycho. I posed my case. I talked with my owner, who loves me dearly. He must. Those offers were unheard of. And he still said no. Really, I'm not that good."

Johnson claims that his offseason problems weren't about money, which I don't believe. But he also is beginning to realize that he can make the most money by producing.

"We have a bigger issue here. Money will take care of itself. If I go out and continue to be way above here, then it's going to have to happen."

Music to Fantasy Nation's ears. We are people that only deal in numbers, not personalities. And Johnson is properly in position to get his usual top-10 numbers, if not better.

Editor's Note: This originally appeared in our daily fantasy blog, Pancake Blocks. For more on the Bengals, check out our video team preview.

[Hache Man]

Minicamp Tour: Giant problems?

Forget the personal drama surrounding Jeremy Shockey. The bigger question is how healthy he will be at the start the season. Shockey broke his leg near his ankle last December and still isn't fully ready to practice with the team. At the time of the injury, the Giants said that the ankle issue wasn't serious, but Shockey is a player who has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He's a bigger injury risk than usual after missing so much work this offseason. There's little reason to think he'll finally elevate from good to great in 2008.


NFC East

New York Giants: Plaxico Burress' contract situation isn't a huge concern for fantasy leaguers. It would be a shocker if he's not practicing by mid-August, if not earlier. … It's uncertain why exactly Ahmad Bradshaw is in jail, but I suspect it doesn't matter. He played too well last season for the Giants to cut him. That's just how the league works. If Bradshaw develops, he could get almost equal touches with Brandon Jacobs. … Eli Manning is getting a modest post-Super Bowl bump in Average Draft Position, rankings up to the QB10 spot. We have him ranked thirteenth at the position, although 10-13 is very closely bunched. … Sinorice Moss hasn't done anything to indicate that he's ready to contribute. Steve Smith is more likely to be New York's third receiver. NY Giants

Dallas Cowboys: I wrote at length about this in the blog, but the Cowboys need for a number two receiver is overrated. They already have one in Jason Witten, and Patrick Crayton is a fine number three. Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are battling to get snaps on the outside, which will allow Crayton to work from the slot. I don't see the winner of Hurd vs. Austin being a great sleeper because he will be the fifth option most plays, behind the three receivers mentioned and Dallas' running back. … Terry Glenn wasn't mentioned above because I don't expect him to make an impact this season. The Cowboys probably don't either. … It was interesting to hear Jason Garrett mention Sean Payton's use of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush as a template for Marion Barber and Felix Jones, with Jones in Bush's role. Garrett and Payton are from the same coaching tree and spent three years together in New York while Garrett was a player. While Barber will undoubtedly be the lead back, Jones' role may be bigger than MBIII owners hope.

Minicamp Tour: AFC West and South
Minicamp Tour: AFC East and North

Philadelphia Eagles: One player to watch in Eagles training camp is Lorenzo Booker. If he continues to impress, the Eagles can be more cautious with Brian Westbrook's workload, especially early in the season. It seems unlikely that Westbrook will get 368 touches again this year. It may be tough to pick a true handcuff for Westbrook, because Booker and Correll Buckhalter could split time if Booker is out. … I'm not worried about Donovan McNabb's shoulder. He is on a pitch count, like many quarterbacks. McNabb will always be an injury risk, but expect a much-improved season when he's on the field. … The Eagles spread the ball around too much for fantasy leaguers to worry about who wins their third receiver job. Rookie DeSean Jackson hasn't impressed thus far. Tight end L.J. Smith is a better candidate for value as a cheap TE2.

Washington Redskins: Washington is a huge mystery team until the season starts. Santana Moss, Clinton Portis, and Jason Campbell aren't natural fits for a West Coast offense, so the transition to Jim Zorn's offense could be rough. Moss is great at deep routes, but now will be asked to catch shorter passes as a flanker and make yards-after-the-catch. Campbell has a great arm, but timing hasn't been his strength. One good sign for Portis is that he enjoyed a rare healthy offseason, and his work ethic is reportedly improving.
washingtonredskins.com
Early indications are that Devin Thomas is well ahead of Malcolm Kelly at receiver, which isn't a surprise. If Thomas can push into the starting lineup, with Antwaan Randle El going to the slot, he can be the best rookie wideout in the NFL. That's not saying much. … Randle El had knee surgery and missed the last five weeks of OTAs, but should be ready for camp. His role could be diminished this season. … Chris Cooley owners could also worry about losing production, if only because the old system was so tight end friendly.
NFC North

Chicago Bears: The Bears aren't that interested in signing a veteran running back, which is great news for rookie presumptive starter Matt Forte. Forte should challenge Jonathan Stewart for the most touches from a rookie running back, making him a fine fourth or fifth-round pick. … I recently had a dream that Mark Bradley was cut and that we had to take him out of our online draft guide undervalued candidates. This is a sad reflection on my life, not Bradley. Still, he has some work to do in order to get a starting job after undergoing knee surgery recently. His injury history makes him a risky pick, but he has upside for a flier. Old friend Brandon Lloyd is also in the mix to start.

With the wide receiver position so murky, expect a lot of targets for tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark - especially if Kyle Orton gets the starting job. … The Orton vs. Grossman battle is reportedly a stalemate heading into training camp. I would guess Orton wins, but neither is a fantasy option.

Detroit Lions: Losing Mike Martz hurts Detroit's passing game, despite the spin coming from the team. But it won't necessarily hurt Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey will see far fewer targets, so the Detroit starters will see a larger portion of a smaller pie. … It would be a surprise if rookie running back Kevin Smith wasn't starting by October, if not earlier. It would also be a surprise if he can top 250 carries after going over 450 last season in college. I'm staying away from all the Lions' runners. … Drew Stanton was supposed to challenge Jon Kitna for snaps this year, but early reports suggest he's got a long way to go. That helps Kitna's job security, which is a major concern if Detroit gets off to a slow start. detroitlions.com

Green Bay Packers: Ryan Grant is unsigned, butexpect a deal before training camp starts. The Packers are clearly counting on him carrying the load this season. He needs to improve his play in short-yardage situations. Brandon Jackson should help out more on third downs after an improved offseason. … James Jones remains ahead of Jordy Nelson on the Packers depth chart, as you'd expect. If Donald Driver continues to decline, Jones could pick up some of his production. greenbaypackers.com

The Packers don't seem interested in signing another veteran quarterback. Rookie Brian Brohm will backup Aaron Rodgers. That raises the possibility of a Brett Favre comeback. If Rodgers got hurt early in the season, will the Packers hand the keys of a veteran team over to a rookie? Green Bay could also look at a veteran in camp if Brohm struggles in the preseason.

Minnesota Vikings: It looks like Sidney Rice will play flanker, while Bernard Berrian will play split end in Minnesota's offense. Considering how much Tarvaris Jackson struggles on deep balls, Rice could be the better fantasy bet of the two. He could see more targets and will certainly come at a cheaper price. … Every year, we read tons of stories of plans to use both running backs in the same backfield at the same time. It rarely happens much, and has little fantasy impact. Chester Taylor has plenty of stand-alone fantasy value this season because Adrian Peterson is a shaky bet to play 16 games, but it's not because they will line up in the same backfield. minnesotavikings.com

[Hache Man]

Rating Randy
Two weeks ago, I asked the question, "Can you win a league title this year by taking Tom Brady in the first round?" Brady's Average Draft Position (ADP) is now at No. 6, likely the highest position for any quarterback since Kurt Warner in 2002. But even as good as Brady was last year and is expected to be this year, can you honestly win a title by drafting a QB THAT high?

After much analysis and even a practice run of drafting Brady seventh this week in a 14-team NFFC Satellite League, I'm convinced that you can win a league title with Brady as a Top 10 pick. In that draft, I still was able to get a solid RB (Laurence Maroney), a solid WR (Torry Holt) and a solid backup RB (Earnest Graham). By the time other owners were trying to find a suitable QB, I was gobbling up solid wideouts in Jerricho Cotchery and Kevin Curtis, while adding suitable depth later on. So it can be done in larger leagues like the NFFC and it certainly can be done in 12-team leagues.

While I'm not trying to belabor this point, it made me ask the next obvious question when looking at the first round: "Can you win a league title this year by taking Randy Moss in the first round?" After all, no wideout since Jerry Rice has gone as high as Moss is going this year. His ADP right now is 7th after he set an NFL record last year with 23 TD receptions and added 98 catches for 1,493 yards. Wide receivers have gone as high as 12th in recent years, but nobody in the last decade has consistently been selected in the Top 10 like Moss has been this year.

So let's analyze Moss' situation and see if it makes sense to take him this high.

First of all, more leagues are going to Point-Per-Reception scoring systems, so drafting a wide receiver first certainly makes sense these days. The days of RB-RB-RB are LONG gone in PPR leagues and a guy like Moss can downright dominate this position, even with the incredible depth that the WR position offers. In a 12-team PPR league we hosted last night, 12 of the first 24 picks were wideouts, with Moss leading the way as the FOURTH overall pick.

In our NFFC Classic and NBC Sports NFFC Primetime Leagues where WRs get 1 point per reception, Moss was a dominant force in 2007, outscoring everyone except Brady, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning. Moss scored an NFFC record 385.3 points for wide receivers through 16 weeks, or 24.0 points per game. No running back was within 45 points of Moss, whose ADP was 46 in the NFFC last year. indianapoliscolts.com

Three other wideouts, however, also topped 300 points with Reggie Wayne totaling 312.4, Terrell Owens 307 and Braylon Edwards 302.9. Those players currently have ADPs of 12 for Owens, 14 for Wayne and 23 for Edwards.

So even during a record-setting season, Moss isn't as dominant at his position as Brady was at QB. Brady scored an NFFC record 550.1 points, which were a whopping 120 more points than Romo. He was so dominant that only four QBs were within 180 points of Brady, or at least 11 points per game less than him for 16 games.

Nobody at the RB position was as dominant as Brady with LaDainian Tomlinson sandiegochargers.com leading the way with 339.7 points, but his 21.2 points per game average was actually slightly lower than Brian Westbrook's 21.7 as Westy played one less game than LT2. The dropoff after those two RBs was almost five points per game per player, similar to the dropoff at WR for other WRs outside of the Top 5 compared to Moss.

With an emphasis on passing in today's game and with the Patriots committed to their wide-open attack, there's every reason to believe that Moss will be the top wide receiver in 2008. Yes, he comes with risk based on his lack of motivation at times, but failing to win a Super Bowl ring should be incentive enough to motivate Moss, Brady & Co. to go after a win every week once again. And with a weak strength-of-schedule, his numbers actually could improve this year.

In the four years of the NFFC, there has been only one running back or receiver to score more points than Moss did last year and that was LT2's 458.3 season in 2006. He had the best NFL season for any back and Moss had the best season ever for a receiver last year. Since 2004's debut NFFC season, only one other WR other than Moss in 2007 led the backs and wideouts in scoring and that was Muhsin Muhammad in 2004, who scored 330 points. The only other wideouts to top 300 NFFC points were Steve Smith carolinapanthers.com with 338.8 points in 2005, Larry Fitzgerald 308 in 2005, Marvin Harrison with 302.6 in 2006, Joe Horn 301.8 in 2004 and the four wideouts in 2007.

The key to drafting Moss in the Top 10 is to make your position projections now and compare him to other wideouts and running backs. We've done our projections for Fantasy Sports Magazine and have concluded that Moss should top 300 points again with totals of 90 catches for 1,350 yards and 16 TDs. They are modest totals and would equal 315 NFFC points. We also have Reggie Wayne at around 300 points and Edwards just under that total, so the dominance is slightly lesser this year for Moss.

Still, with more depth at RB this year, it's obvious that you can anchor your franchise by selecting Moss with your first pick and still getting two good RBs after that. If he equals our projections, he's worth a Top 10 pick without a doubt. If he comes anywhere near last year's numbers, he's a worthy Top 6 pick. Do your own analysis and come up with your own conclusion, but through my research I'm convinced that a healthy, happy Randy Moss will more than justify that first round pick in 2008. And he might even lead your team to that league title you've always coveted.

[Hache Man]

Minicamp Tour: NFC West, South

Kevin Jones is the only game-changing running back left on the market. By game changing, I mean that his presence dramatically alter the fantasy values of all his new teammates. At this point, I don't even expect Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry to get signed. LaMont Jordan will be cut, but he's more of a role player. Same with Najeh Davenport. Ron Dayne is somewhere, wondering where it all went wrong.

Tampa's reported interest in Jones is telling. They don't quite see Earnest Graham as a true franchise back ( look at his contract) and perhaps they are realizing that Michael Bennett and Warrick are better names than players. The other prime landing spot for the out-of-work back is New Orleans, where Deuce McAllister's career is still in question. Second-year pro Pierre Thomas is one of our favorite sleepers, but the Saints might get nervous with him as Reggie Bush's tag team partner, especially with Thomas nursing a sore groin in June.

Editor's Note: Thomas is ranked 41st at running back in Rotoworld's latest online draft guide cheat sheets. For access to all the projections, tiers, articles and stats, click here.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Forget the Joe Horn rumors to Dallas. The Cowboys know that he's done as a productive pro. So do the Falcons; expect Horn to get released before the season. (And yes, the demise of Hollywood makes Gregg Rosenthal very depressed.) … In a column for our second magazine, a Falcons beat writer estimated that Matt Ryan would be starting by Week 4. Keep that in mind when projecting Roddy White's chance for a repeat season. … If Laurent Robinson was on any other team, he'd be one of our favorite deep sleepers. Of course he probably wouldn't bet starting on most teams. Still, the second-year pro has a chance to develop into a poor man's Lee Evans. atlantafalcons.com

Carolina Panthers: Everyone in Carolina says Jake Delhomme's arm got stronger like some baseball pitchers after Tommy John surgery, which sounds great. 300-pound men don't tackle relief pitchers, though. We are still skeptical Delhomme will be as accurate as he used to be, and he has always been streaky. I would bet that Matt Moore starts multiple games for the Panthers. … Dwayne Jarrett is going to need an injury by D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad to play in his second season. For now, Moose looks like the starter, although I expect a rotation no matter who gets the Week 1 call. … Jonathan Stewart is expected to carry the load for the Panthers this season, but he still hasn't practiced because of his toe injury. He's supposed to be ready for the start of camp. carolinapanthers.com

Minicamp Tour: AFC West and South
Minicamp Tour: AFC East and North
Minicamp Tour: NFC East and North

New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for LaMont Jordan and other running backs. That supports my belief that Deuce McAllister is highly unlikely to contribute much this season. Unfortunately, another teammate would be bad news for Rotoworld's favorite ADP value, Pierre Thomas. … Marques Colston's knee surgery proved to be minor, and he was fully practicing in June. Colston still has room to improve entering his third season, making him a potential top-five wideout. … Robert Meachem predictably enjoyed an improved offseason. The second-year pro has an outside chance to start, although I expect Devery Henderson, David Patten, and Meachem to cancel each other out.

Tampa Bay Bucs: I wrote in the blog that Earnest Graham's contract wasn't a good sign for how the Bucs view him. He's being paid like a backup, and anyone drafting Graham has to worry that Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett will cut into his workload. Still, I don't remotely trust Dunn or Bennett, and perhaps the Bucs don't either. Tampa's reported interest in Kevin Jones clouds the picture further. Jones' versatility would be a perfect fit for that roster, although it's uncertain how soon he'll be ready to play football again. Carnell Williams is likely to start the year on the PUP list and may not be ready until late in the season. … Going into training camp, it looks like Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton are battling for a starting gig, with Ike Hilliard likely to man the slot. Bryant should have the edge in talent and is one of our favorite sleepers if he gets the job. … Luke McCown has surprisingly stayed ahead of Brian Griese for the backup quarterback job. I expect McCown to start a few games this year, whether it's due to poor play from Jeff Garcia or an injury. Tampabaybuccaneers.com
NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart is the starter, but Ken Whisenhunt made it clear that he's on a short leash. Working in Leinart's favor is that Arizona's schedule sets up favorably the first five weeks of the season. … Anquan Boldin wants a new contract, but it isn't a major concern for fantasy leaguers. He should be on time for camp. … Steve Breaston is the early favorite for third receiver duties, although we'd bet on third-round pick Early Doucet getting most of the work by the end of the season. Neither is very interesting unless Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald gets hurt. … The Cardinals are going to remain a pass-first team because of personnel. Edgerrin James might be more effective with less work, but so far his backups (Tim Hightower, J.J. Arrington, Marcel Shipp) haven't shined. arizonacardinals.com

San Francisco 49ers: Since Mike Martz aggressively praises all his players, it's hard to get a read on San Francisco's jumbled roster. Alex Smith remains the heavy favorite to start at quarterback, but he hasn't pulled away from Shaun Hill just yet. Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce appear locked in to the starting wideout jobs, with Arnaz Battle likely to be number three. Jason Hill and Ashley Lelie are probably fighting for scraps. … Perhaps the most promising thing to come out of summer reports is Martz's eagerness to split Vernon Davis out wide and use him often as a receiver. Martz hasn't used tight ends as receivers much in the past, but he could be adjusting his playbook. … It's also clear that the offense will run through Frank Gore, like Martz once did for Marshall Faulk. Expect at least 70 catches. I see the world through Gore-colored glasses, but I think fewer carries will keep him healthy.

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks wide receiver position is wide open, although we expect Bobby Engram to settle his contract dispute and start opposite Nate Burleson. That leaves Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne, and Ben Obomanu fighting for the third spot. Taylor looks like the slight favorite, and the winner here will be a nice deep league sleeper. … Matt Hasselbeck is going to get overdrafted based on last season's numbers. His pass attempt total is likely to go way down, and the receiver position is weaker than it's even been in Hasselbeck's career. … It's clear Mike Holmgren isn't a huge T.J. Duckett fan. We don't expect him to have a major role, even in short-yardage situations. Julius Jones should get the majority of the carries, with Maurice Morris looking like a fine late round pick. … Rookie John Carlson is no lock to start at tight end, so he's someone to avoid. .

St. Louis Rams: Steven Jackson's colonic aside, it's been a quiet offseason in St. Louis. Just ask Evan Silva about the local Rams coverage if you want to hear a bitter man. While Jackson has struggled with a few minor injuries, he will be supremely motivated to have a great contract year. The big question is whether the St. Louis offensive line is any better. If Orlando Pace got hurt again, it could get ugly. … Torry Holt appears to be healthy this offseason, which is great news after struggling with a knee injury for the last two seasons. … Al Saunders does a great job with tight ends, which makes Randy McMichael a reasonable TE2 option in deeper leagues. Someone has to catch passes in St. Louis, and the reserves at wideout are weak. That also bodes well for Drew Bennett, who is getting overlooked in most drafts. I'm not a huge believer in his talent, but he'll get a lot of targets for a late-round pick. Bennett was taken earlier last season when he was coming off the bench.

[Hache Man]

Offensive Line Rankings
Line play heavily influences fantasy production. The game is decided in the trenches. A dominant run-blocking line can turn an undrafted free agent into a 1,600-yard rusher, or resurrect a declining back's career. A unit that can't protect will often get its quarterback hurt and/or ruin a team's season. We saw that last year in St. Louis, and to some extent in Carolina, Chicago, and Baltimore.

Taking statistics, scheme, experience, and depth into consideration, I've ranked the league's offensive lines in order from 1-32. Note that in-season injuries are the biggest variable when ranking offensive lines. That's why having experienced or promising depth behind a starting five can matter so much.

Listed below the teams are Gregg Rosenthal's o-line rankings from the last two seasons.

1. Patriots
2006: 8
2007: 9

Throwing out their Super Bowl performance -- we'll credit Steve Spagnuolo's fire-zone blitzes for that, rather blame line coach Dante Scarnecchia or the Pats' talent -- this Logan Mankins, Stephen Neal, and Matt Light-led unit was unrivaled in 2007. All five starters return from a group that allowed only 21 sacks despite attempting the fifth most passes in the NFL. Reserves Wesley Britt, Ryan O'Callaghan, Oliver Ross, and Russ Hochstein all possess starting experience and position versatility.

2. Colts
2006: 10
2007: 1
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
The Colts can manufacture linemen and GM Bill Polian drafts for scheme fit. Losing a starter (i.e. Jake Scott this offseason) is rarely a problem. Tony Ugoh didn't miss a beat on Peyton Manning's blind side after Tarik Glenn's surprise retirement last year, and is an upgrade athletically. After C Jeff Saturday retires, 2008 second-rounder Mike Pollak will probably replace him. All the members can pass block. Indianapolis hasn't yielded over 25 sacks in a season since 2001.

3. Browns
2006: 19
2007: 29
www.clevelandbrowns.ws
The additions of Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach were a godsend to Cleveland's offense last season. Both play with a mean streak and are mobile pass protectors. Kevin Shaffer proved a better fit at right tackle after manning the blind side in 2006, and RG Ryan Tucker and C Hank Fraley are solid starters. The Browns are exceptionally deep with G/C Rex Hadnot signed to push Tucker. Whoever finishes as Cleveland's quarterback should have a nice, clean jersey in Week 17.

4. Cowboys
2006: 17
2007: 22

Dallas' powerful starting five boasts a massive left side of OT Flozell Adams (6'7/340) and OG Leonard Davis (6'6/354). Jerry Jones invested two high draft picks on projects James Marten and Doug Free last April, and either could replace contract-year RT Marc Colombo in 2009. This group supports Marion Barber's no-nonsense running style and protects Tony Romo more than adequately.

5. Vikings
2006: 9
2007: 8
www.minnesotavikings.ws
Minnesota might've topped this list if not for LT Bryant McKinnie's legal woes. McKinnie is unlikely to be available for more than 12 games this season and would be replaced by squatty guard Artis Hicks. It's still a top-five unit due to the dominant inside work of C Matt Birk, LG Steve Hutchinson, and rising RG Anthony Herrera. After Herrera was installed as a starter in Week 6 last year, the Vikings averaged 175 rushing yards per game despite Adrian Peterson's injury. Young RT Ryan Cook, a college center, is still developing. Tested veteran Marcus Johnson provides depth behind him.

6. Jaguars
2006: 20
2007: 5
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
Another group of maulers, Jacksonville's line consistently wins the battle at the point and boasts sound depth. Khalif Barnes isn't the ideal blind-side protector and has had off-field issues before, but RT Tony Pashos and LG Vince Manuwai are 320+ pound run-blocking specialists. G Uche Nwaneri and backup LT Richard Collier are promising prospects. The Jags' yards-per-carry average was second in the league in 2006 and tied for third in 2007, thanks in no small part to these trench warriors.

7. Eagles
2006: 12
2007: 3

The Eagles surrendered too many sacks in 2007 as LG Todd Herremans and LT William Thomas played hurt. Thomas may be on his last legs, but this remains one of the NFL's most talented, deep lines. C Jamaal Jackson, RG Shawn Andrews, and top backup Max Jean-Gilles are beasts inside. RT Jon Runyan is a vicious run blocker. Philadelphia ranked second in the league in yards per rush last year.

8. Chargers
2006: 11
2007: 2
www.sandiegochargers.ws
San Diego would be higher if not for C Nick Hardwick's foot injury (Hardwick could miss the first quarter of the season). LT Marcus McNeill does a first-rate job protecting Philip Rivers, while Hardwick, Mike Goff, and Kris Dielman are mainstays inside. RT Jeromey Clary, a potential liability, is probably better cut out to play guard.

9. Giants
2006: 14
2007: 15
www.newyorkgiants.ws
There were doubts about David Diehl's ability to play left tackle in 2007, but he held up and was rewarded with a $31 million extension in May. Steady guards Rich Seubert and Chris Snee are also signed long term. RT Kareem McKenzie is a 6'6/330-pound bruiser. The Jints have experienced reserves in Grey Ruegamer and Kevin Boothe, and are still high on the potential of OT Guy Whimper. It's a power blocking unit designed to clear lanes for a deep stable of backs.

10. Titans
2006: 24
2007: 14
www.tennesseetitans.ws
Tennessee made sure intimidating tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart would be around for the long haul this offseason, extending both through 2013. Leroy Harris has been developed to replace retired G Benji Olson. C Kevin Mawae is the line's heart and soul and Jake Scott comes from Indianapolis to replace Jacob Bell. The run-first Titans pound the rock behind this group.

11. Jets
2006: 29
2007: 19
www.newyorkjets.ws
The Jets paid the price for mishandling Pete Kendall's situation last summer, but should have one of the AFC's top units again with LG Alan Faneca added between youngsters D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. Though he may struggle in protection, RT Damien Woody should be an upgrade over Anthony Clement in the ground game. The additions bode well for Thomas Jones.

12. Buccaneers
2006: 26
2007: 16
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Road-grading guards Arron Sears and Davin Joseph, both top-35 picks the last two offseasons, are this group's strength and support Earnest Graham, master of the four-yard gain. New C Jeff Faine also helps. LT Donald Penn was up and down as a first-year starter in 2007, but will benefit from the adversity.

13. Seahawks
2006: 1
2007: 10

Once almost indisputably the league's best, the Seahawks' line has taken a step back since losing Steve Hutchinson. Young C Chris Spencer has battled injuries and RT Sean Locklear has been a shade inconsistent. Still, LT Walter Jones remains a legitimate All Pro and Seattle gets fine all-around line play even if Shaun Alexander's statistics didn't support it.

14. Panthers
2006: 13
2007: 21
www.carolinapanthers.ws
When it rains it pours, and we saw how bad it can get last year in Carolina. The Panthers' lost multiple quarterbacks and starting LT Travelle Wharton to injury. With mauling first-round tackle Jeff Otah on buard, John Fox should get back to his rock-pounding ways and feed Jonathan Stewart religiously.



15. Broncos
2006: 3
2007: 6

Denver's zone-blocking system is a plus, but uncertainty at center (Tom Nalen, 36, is recovering from knee surgery) and competition at right tackle leaves room for concern. While first-round LT Ryan Clady should succeed immediately, we can't reasonably put the Broncos higher than this.

16. Packers
2006: 27
2007:16
www.greenbaypackers.ws
The Packers haven't found great depth behind technically sound OTs Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton, but they impressively blend power and zone blocking and have a promising interior line with at least four starting-capable guards. Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have an obvious excuse if he failed as a starter.

17. Bengals
2006: 4
2007: 4

It's easy to like the nucleus of LG Andrew Whitworth, G/T Stacy Andrews, and rookie Anthony Collins, but left tackle Levi Jones' health has become a serious question mark. There are also issues at center, and RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson are aging. This line is great in pass pro and can power block with anyone if it jells, but Rudi Johnson's performance has sagged badly the past two seasons.

18. Redskins
2006: 5
2007: 7
www.washingtonredskins.ws
The Redskins have quality starters, but their depth is questionable and knocks Washington down in our rankings. Two members (RT Jon Jansen and RG Randy Thomas) are coming off serious injuries. But if they're healthy, this can be a potent run-blocking wall for Clinton Portis.

19. Steelers
2006: 6
2007: 13

Pittsburgh's line gets somewhat unfairly criticized for yielding sacks because no QB hangs in the pocket (often with success) like Ben Roethlisberger. Rashard Mendenhall's addition should make the group look better because he'll likely be a better inside runner than Willie Parker and will pick up the blitz.

20. Bills
2006: 18
2007: 22
www.buffalobills.ws
LT Jason Peters is quietly threatening a holdout, but when he's on Buffalo opens holes and is above average in protection. RT Langston Walker and LG Derrick Dockery are monster maulers.

21. Saints
2006: 28
2007: 11

This line played above its head in '06 and returned to earth last season. It's really a middle-of-the-pack group, but still talented (LT Jammal Brown, G Jahri Evans) with developmental depth (T Jermon Bushrod, G Andy Alleman). Sean Payton throws more than anyone, even Mike Martz, which helps Drew Brees' numbers but can leave the linemen out to dry.

22. Cardinals
2006: 26
2007: 27
www.arizonacardinals.ws
Arizona threw a ton in 2007 and this group protected well. But the Cardinals ranked 30th in yards-per-carry average.

23. Texans
2006: 31
2007: 31

This group couldn't keep Matt Schaub healthy in 2007. Position coach Alex Gibbs' addition will help the ground attack, but Houston will likely start a rookie left tackle this year and the protection could be up and down again.

24. Bears
2006: 15
2007: 12

The Bears' line got old all at once in 2007, but should rebound some with John Tait moving to his natural right tackle position and first-rounder Chris Williams installed on the blind side. Still, Chicago's run blocking could remain inconsistent.

25. 49ers
2006: 32
2007: 17

San Francisco's line has potential, but C Eric Heitmann, G David Baas, and RT Jonas Jennings are coming off injuries. Martz's offense is pass heavy, so they need to get healthy and keep their heads on a swivel.

26. Rams
2006: 20
2007: 18

This unit was decimated by injuries last season. Though they possess plenty of talent, there are too many "ifs" for the Rams' line to be considered average.

27. Ravens
2006: 28
2007: 30
www.baltimoreravens.ws
The middle of Baltimore's line is a strength, but replacing Jonathan Ogden with raw second-year man Jared Gaither may not bode well for the Ravens' quarterback.

28. Dolphins
2006: 30
2007: 21
www.miamidolphins.ws
Miami's line has major power potential, but there are concerns about LT Jake Long's athleticism and the interior play.

29. Raiders
2006: 23
2007: 32
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Oakland has an excellent position coach in Tom Cable, but LT Kwame Harris was a turnstile in San Francisco and JaMarcus Russell could be on his back quite a bit in his first year starting.

30. Lions
2006: 25
2007: 24
www.detroitlions.ws
Perhaps the Lions have been unfairly downgraded here due to outrageous sack totals under Martz, but this group isn't any good until proven otherwise.

31. Chiefs
2006: 4
2007: 25
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Athletic first-round pick Branden Albert helps, but this is unlikely to be a successful line this season with multiple unproven starters.

32. Falcons
2006: 7
2007: 23
www.atlantafalcons.ws
New LT Sam Baker has short arms and RT Tyson Clabo isn't a power player. Atlanta's quarterback could be a sitting duck in 2008 and Michael Turner threatens to disappoint.

[Hache Man]

A Ten Pack Of WR Values
In a tight economy, more than ever it pays to find a good value. The same holds true in a fantasy football draft. The values you find often are the players who help your team go from good to great.

In researching several recent drafts and utilizing MockDraftCentral Average Draft Position list, I've noticed some real bargains emerging in National Fantasy Football Championship drafts. One thing we've seen in our first four seasons of the NFFC is that having a strong WR corps is critical to achieving success. One can argue having strong WRs is more important than having strong RBs.

Last year, for example, three WRs and three RBs averaged more than 20 points per game in the NFFC. They were:

RUNNING BACKS
Brian Westbrook – 21.7 points per game
Ronnie Brown – 21.5 www.miamidolphins.ws
LaDainian Tomlinson – 21.2 www.sandiegochargers.ws

WIDE RECEIVERS
Randy Mosss – 24
Andre Johnson – 21
Terrell Owens – 20.4

So both positions were represented equally among the elite players. However, after that, the wide receiver position began to flex its muscle. Eight RBs averaged 15 points or more in the NFFC. Meanwhile, 19 WRs averaged 15 points or more.

Obviously there are more WRs than RBs to choose from in any fantasy league so that plays a part in these results. However, with so many RBs flaming out last season, the WRs were typically able to rise above the fray and provide their NFFC owners with more stability and production throughout the season.

Many of the WRs who averaged 15 points per game or more were found in the early rounds on Draft Day. However, a number of value picks emerged who played big roles for their owners in 2007. They were:

Brandon Marshall – 17.5 points per game
Wes Welker – 17.5
Greg Jennings – 16.6
Bobby Engram – 15.2
Santonio Holmes – 15.2
Derrick Mason - 15

So who could follow in these receivers' footsteps in 2008? Here's a look at 10 WRs who are currently representing good value in NFFC drafts using MockDraftCentral's current ADP ranking.

Roddy White (ADP 72): White broke through in a big way last season, catching 83 passes for 1,202 yards and six touchdowns. He did all that despite the fact the Falcons offered little in the way of quality QB play. So I see no reason to worry about White's production falling off this season regardless of whether it's Matt Ryan or Chris Redman starting at QB. He's a strong WR2 who can often be grabbed as a WR3 in NFFC drafts. www.atlantafalcons.ws

Laveranues Coles (ADP 75): I'm not as high on Coles in standard-scoring leagues this year, but in the NFFC where WRs get a full point per reception I love his value here. Injuries led to a decline in production but Coles is only two seasons removed from a 91-reception campaign. Don't expect much in the way of TDs but as long as he's healthy, his receptions will help him generate quality value in the NFFC.

Jerricho Cotchery (ADP 77): I'm big on Cotchery this season and believe he has Top 20 potential in the NFFC. He's caught 82 passes each of the past two seasons and should see his TDs increase from the paltry two he delivered last year. I've targeted him and gotten him in a number of drafts already and I love him as a WR3 given his WR2 upside.

Anthony Gonzalez (ADP 82): Given how I have zero faith in Marvin Harrison, Gonzalez represents huge value in my opinion. If he's starting for the Colts, he could easily be a Top 20-25 WR in all scoring formats. To get that type of potential in the sixth round of an NFFC draft is huge value. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Derrick Mason (ADP 90): If Mason were a baseball player we'd be calling him a "professional hitter." He just shows up every year catches passes and generally flies under the radar on Draft Day. I highly doubt he'll catch 103 passes like he did last season but he's still the clear No. 1 WR for the Ravens and will get plenty of targets each week. You can't beat that in the sixth or seventh round. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Bobby Engram (ADP 91): With Deion Branch possibly out of commission for the entire season, look for Engram to be Matt Hasselbeck's top target again this season. In the NFFC, he has Top 20 potential given how Hasselbeck trusts him and will look for him in clutch situations. To get that type of production in the seventh round of an NFFC draft is a steal.

Nate Burleson (ADP 101): While Engram will gobble up the receptions, don't be surprised if Burleson gobbles up the TDs. He had a strong fantasy season in 2007 and the Seahawks have been raving about his offseason work. Seattle needs him badly and Burleson has the talent to deliver.

Bernard Berrian (ADP 102): Tarvaris Jackson stinks but so did the Bears' QBs who Berrian had to work with and he still caught 71 passes and five TDs last season. His speed and big-play ability could lead to a few more TDs this year, making him a fine value pick – even if Jackson is still the QB.

D.J. Hackett (ADP 115): Hackett will need to stay healthy to keep Muhsin Muhammad out of the starting lineup, but if he can do that, he has the talent to shine opposite Steve Smith. He caught 32 passes and three TDs in only six games for Seattle last season, which shows you how productive he can be. His durability concerns have led to his value dropping into the eighth and ninth rounds, but that's a fine spot to grab him as a reserve who could deliver as a weekly starter. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Jabar Gaffney (ADP 152): Gaffney managed 36 receptions and five TDs last season while often seeing time as the No. 4 WR. If he earns a starting job as expected this season, he could improve upon those numbers even though the Patriots have plenty of talented weapons for Tom Brady to throw to. In the 10th or 11th round of an NFFC draft, Gaffney is the type of value pick who could turn to gold this season.

[Hache Man]

Projected Pass Attempts
Fantasy owners obsess about how many touches a starting running back gets. It makes sense; If Laurence Maroney doesn't get the ball consistently, his chances to score big fantasy points will be limited.

For some reason, we don't apply the same logic to quarterbacks. Pass attempt totals are overlooked when evaluating signal callers. While pass attempt totals tend to bunch together more closely than touches, they can still make a huge difference. Drew Brees threw 192 more passes in 2007 than his old teammate Philip Rivers. www.sandiegochargers.ws Per-pass, they were almost identical in their effectiveness. Brees scored 2.03 fantasy points-per-pass, while Rivers was at 1.99. But Brees' pass wacky ways made him a true fantasy starter, while Rivers was a mediocre backup.

I start my offseason rankings by projecting every team's pass attempt totals for the season, dividing the attempts up, and then working from that number. A player like Ben Roethlisberger with consistently low attempts or someone with job security questions like Matt Leinart naturally suffer. Their margin for error is slim. And as Brees owners will tell you, huge margins for error are awesome. Below are my rankings for projected attempts for the 2008 season.

Note: With each player, I've included their total attempts from last season, the average number of team passing attempts in their current offensive system (usually with same head coach or coordinator), and my projected attempts for the season. In certain cases like Donovan McNabb and Marc Bulger where injuries play a factor, I've also include a player's personal average in his current system.

On Another Level

1. Drew Brees, Saints| Avg. Team Attempts: 603| 2007 Attempts: 652
Projected Attempts: 580

Attempts are the great equalizer for Brees; they make him among the safest picks in fantasy leagues. Even after projecting a 72-attempt drop, which brings him back to a land where his team occasionally runs or makes a defensive stop, we project him to have a 30 attempt jump on the field. That will help prevent any long slumps because his yardage will stay high.

He will need that advantage if his big plays don't rebound from a sub-par 2007. Knowing Sean Payton, this offense is never going to be totally balanced.

The 500 Level

2. Carson Palmer, Bengals| Avg. Team Attempts: 534| 2007 Attempts: 575
Projected Attempts: 550

The Bengals say they want to run more this season, but I don't think they have the talent to balance their offense. Their talent is all in the passing game. Palmer will still be a high volume quarterback, which could make him the best value of the top-six options.

3. Tom Brady, Patriots| Avg. Team Attempts: 538| 2007 Attempts: 578
Projected Attempts: 545

While Brady's attempts are likely to go down if Laurence Maroney stays healthy, New England will always be a pass-first team. Especially in the red zone. The bigger question with Brady is whether he can keep up his bananas 8.3 yards-per-attempt from last season.

Editor's Note: Too see our complete quarterback rankings, projections, and cheat sheets, check out the Rotoworld Online Draft Guide

4. Tony Romo, Cowboys| Avg. Team Attempts: 520| 2007 Attempts: 520
Projected Attempts: 535

There is natural concern that Tony Romo will take a step back after a ridiculously good first season as a starter. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's pass-happy ways ease those concerns. If Dallas trails a little more often, they might get as pass-happy as the Saints.

5. Eli Manning, Giants| Avg. Team Attempts: 536| 2007 Attempts: 529
Projected Attempts: 534
www.newyorkgiants.ws
Eli can be inconsistent from game-to-game, but he doesn't get hurt and his attempt totals are as consistent as anyone. That helps make him a safe, if unexciting, top-15 quarterback each year.

6. Peyton Manning, Colts| Avg. Team Attempts: 540| 2007 Attempts: 515
Projected Attempts: 525
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
Unlike Eli, Peyton's attempt totals have fluctuated wildly in recent years, and that makes huge difference in his fantasy value. In 2005, he threw 453 passes. In 2006, he threw 104 more and scored 69 more fantasy points. Despite his recent surgery, Manning will be ready for Week 1.

Manning should safely get over 500 attempts assuming the Colts don't dominate the competition with huge leads all year. It also helps when they don't clinch their playoff berth too early.

7. Marc Bulger, Rams| Avg. Team Attempts: 583| Avg. Bulger Attempts: 450
2007 Attempts: 378| Projected Attempts: 505

Breaking down Bulger's numbers further, he averages 563 attempts when he plays more than 14 games. That's only happened twice in five years. Scott Linehan loves to chuck it, especially in the red zone, another reason why Bulger is a true boom-or-bust option.

Safe Options

8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks| Avg. Team Attempts: 526| Avg. Hass attempts: 508 2007 Attempts: 562| Projected Attempts: 495

Hasselbeck is coming off his highest attempt total in four years by 88 attempts, mostly because Shaun Alexander attacked defenses with the enthusiasm of a Mike Holmgren diet. With a shaky receiver group and a strong running game, Hasselbeck's totals could fall off a cliff. That's one reason he's overvalued in most drafts.

9. Jay Cutler, Broncos| Avg. Team Attempts: 490| 2007 Attempts: 490
Projected Attempts: 495

Mike Shanahan keeps his offense balanced when possible, and can lean strongly towards the run when it's clicking. Cutler's YPA helps him greatly, but his attempt total should only be average. His durability and job security, however, are excellent.

10. Aaron Rodgers, Packers| Avg. Team Attempts: 604| 2007 Attempts: 28
Projected Attempts: 490
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Okay, so we haven't worked Brett Favre into the projections yet. The man is retired, and the most likely outcomes are that he's traded or stays retired. Neither affects Rodgers. When and if Favre un-retires, this number will change.

Mike McCarthy is near the top of the list of pass-happy coaches. That bodes extremely well for Rodgers, as does his deep receiver group. His projected attempts are relatively low mostly because of his injury history and status as a first-time starter. McCarthy may balance the offense to start the year.

11. Matt Schaub, Texans| Avg. Team Attempts: 529| 2007 Attempts: 485
Projected Attempts: 485

Schaub and Jay Cutler are Rotoworld's two favorite breakout candidates. I can see the Texans skewing pass because they could be in a lot of high scoring games (schedule and secondary are factors). Schaub's biggest obstacle to hitting his target is his health, not Sage Rosenfels.

12. Donovan McNabb, Eagles| Avg. Team Attempts: 553| Avg. Healthy Season McNabb Attempts: 495| Avg. McNabb attempts: 440| Projected Attempts: 485

I counted a "healthy" McNabb season as one in which he played 14 games or more. McNabb is going to throw plenty when healthy, but he's also likely to miss a few starts. McNabb will have to play very poorly to lose his job based on performance this season, and we don't see that happening.

At Risk for Low Attempts

13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers| Avg. Team Attempts: 442| 2007 Attempts: 404| Projected Attempts: 465

Mike Tomlin doesn't lean on the run quite as dramatically as Bill Cowher, but this is still one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Roethlisberger must continue to rely on a high yards-per-attempt and touchdown-per-pass average or he'll take a step back in fantasy leagues.

14. Derek Anderson, Browns| Avg. Team Attempts: 544| 2007 Attempts: 527
Projected Attempts: 465
www.clevelandbrowns.ws
Most fantasy websites have Anderson as a top-six quarterback. We don't have him in our top ten. That's because Brady Quinn's presence is factored into our projections. You don't want to invest in a quarterback that high if he must win games early and often to keep his job.

15. Jason Campbell, Redskins| Avg. Team Attempts: N/A| 2007 Attempts: 417
Projected Attempts: 460
www.washingtonredskins.ws
Campbell was ninth in the league in attempts before he was hurt last season, on pace for 535 attempts. Job security shouldn't be a concern, and new head coach Jim Zorn looks likely to run a balanced offense. It could lean pass once Campbell gets comfortable.

16. Jon Kitna, Lions| Avg. Team Attempts: 578| 2007 Attempts: 561
Projected Attempts: 450
www.detroitlions.ws
Kitna is the perfect example of a player whose fantasy value was buoyed by high attempts totals. Kitna didn't play particularly well under Mike Martz, but he threw enough to be a fantasy factor.

Kitna has two major problems this season: Martz is gone, and he probably has to win to keep his job. The Lions will run far more, and Detroit seems likely to look at Drew Stanton or Dan Orlovsky down the stretch unless they are in the playoff race. Expect a huge decline.

17. Philip Rivers, Chargers| Avg. Team Attempts: 460| 2007 Attempts: 460
Projected Attempts: 440
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Norv Turner is a run-first coach, and that isn't going to change with Rivers coming back from ACL surgery. Rivers doesn't have a huge margin for error, and his play is often inconsistent.

18. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs| Avg. Team Attempts: 505| 2007 Attempts: 224
Projected Attempts: 430
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
This ranking is higher than we'd expect. Herm Edwards loves slowing-paced offense more than any coach in the league, but they were forced to pass often last season because they always trailed in games. That should happen again, and Croyle has decent job security.

19. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders| Avg. Team Attempts: 450| 2007 Attempts: 66
Projected Attempts: 430
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Russell has fantastic job security, but the Raiders were as run-heavy as any bad offense in recent memory. That isn't likely to change with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush added to the mix. This limits Russell's upside in his first year starting.

20. Vince Young, Titans| Avg. Team Attempts: 455| Avg. Young attempts: 385
2007 Attempts: 382 | Projected Attempts: 425
www.tennesseetitans.ws
A couple notes here. Young's average attempts included his starts as a rookie, paced out if he had started 16 games. I also considered not including the average team starts because the Titans have a new offensive coordinator, Mike Heimerdinger.

Still, Jeff Fisher is the constant of the Titans attack. And Tennessee has leaned heavily on the run throughout his tenure, including when Heimerdinger was the OC years ago with Steve McNair. Young may throw deeper this year, but he's unlikely to be a high volume passer. Young gets much of his value from his running ability, though, so he can be a QB1 without throwing a ton.

21. David Garrard, Jaguars| Avg. Team Attempts: 465| 2007 Attempts: 325
Projected Attempts: 425
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
Garrard is so efficient that he's still our ninth-ranked quarterback despite the low attempts number. He must prove he can stay healthy for 16 games and the Jaguars are a run-first team, but there are signs that they will be more aggressive this season. This number is conservative. If Garrard can approach 500 attempts, he'd be a top-five quarterback.

22. Jake Delhomme, Panthers| Avg. Team Attempts: 480| 2007 Attempts: 86
Projected Attempts: 420
www.carolinapanthers.ws
If Garrard's attempts are conservative, Delhomme's are optimistic. My gut says that Delhomme is unlikely to keep his starting job long enough to reach 420 attempts, whether it's because of injury (elbow) or performance. We think the Panthers will pass more than usual, and have Matt Moore projected for 95 attempts.

23. Matt Leinart, Cardinals| Avg. Team Attempts: 590| 2007 Attempts: 112
Projected Attempts: 420
www.arizonacardinals.ws
The Cardinals balance their offense more when Leinart is under center. Plus Leinart continues to be hurt by job security questions. Kurt Warner still looms, and has 140 projected attempts.

24. Alex Smith, 49ers| Avg. Team Attempts: N/A| 2007 Attempts: 575
Projected Attempts: 420

I like Smith as a late-round QB2 pick if you take a top-five quarterback. I fully expect him to win the starting job, and Mike Martz will prop up his attempt totals ala Jon Kitna. Job security isn't great, but I can live with it for a flier pick.

25. Trent Edwards, Bills| Avg. Team Attempts: 445| 2007 Attempts: 269
Projected Attempts: 410
www.buffalobills.ws
The cagey Dick Jauron is as conservative as it comes. With a potentially strong running game and defense, don't look for Edwards to light it up in his first full season as a starter.

Sub 400

26. Tarvaris Jackson| Projected Attempts: 390

Minnesota is a run-first team, and Jackson is an injury-prone starter without terrific job security.

27. Jeff Garcia| Projected Attempts: 380
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Jon Gruden was shockingly conservative with Garcia at the helm. Whether it's because of an injury or performance-related, expect Garcia to lose his job eventually.

28. Chad Pennington| Projected Attempts: 350
www.newyorkjets.ws
The Jets may want Kellen Clemens to win their starting job, but Pennington is the better player. And that should win out, even if it's not before Week 1.

30. Matt Ryan| Projected Attempts: 300
www.atlantafalcons.ws
Estimated time he'll take over: Week 5. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey skews to the run, but Atlanta's defense may give him no option but to pass.

31. Rex Grossman|Projected Attempts: 280

Oh, Rexy. Why do you make us choose between you and Kyle Orton when we have so much affection for you both? Grossman gets the nod by a hair because Lovie Smith usually goes with what he knows. Some Chicago writers believe Orton is more likely to get the first crack, though.

32. John Beck| Projected Attempts: 240

We fully expect Beck, Josh McCown, and Chad Henne to get extended cracks at the starting job during the season, while virtually eliminates all three from any fantasy discussion.

33. Troy Smith| Projected Attempts: 215

This admittedly could be conservative. While we expect Joe Flacco to play during the 2008 season, it probably won't be until late in the campaign. If Smith can win the starting job, he should be able to hold off Kyle Boller until it's Flacco time. Until we know who will start in Week 1, though, this is just guesswork.

The Best of the rest

34. Chris Redman| Projected Attempts: 175
35. Chad Henne| Projected Attempts: 160
36. Kellen Clemens| Projected Attempts: 160
37. Kurt Warner| Projected Attempts: 150
38. Joe Flacco| Projected Attempts: 143
39. Kyle Boller| Projected Attempts: 110
40. Shaun Hill| Projected Attempts: 100
41. Drew Stanton| Projected Attempts: 100
42. Matt Moore| Projected Attempts: 95
43. Brady Quinn| Projected Attempts: 90
44. Luke McCown| Projected Attempts: 90
45. Gus Frerotte| Projected Attempts: 80

[Hache Man]

Pack Fans: Stay Retired Brett
As a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan, season ticket holder at Lambeau Field, and survivor of the brutally cold NFC Championship Game, I feel qualified enough to say I know how Packer fans are feeling about the Brett Favre soap opera right now. In one sentence, here's the pulse of Packer Nation:

BRETT, HOW CAN YOU BE SO STUPID?
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Seriously, every Packer fan was disappointed and surprised to hear that Brett Favre was retiring in early March. Every Packer fan shed a tear with him at that March press conference. Every Packer fan felt Favre could still play for the Packers in 2008, was our best option at QB to return to the NFC Championship Game, and still could be an elite quarterback. But when he said he didn't know if he had the desire to work that hard again and felt it was time to hang up the spikes, Packer Nation agreed with him and moved on.

We kept our love for Favre, but moved onto the 2008 season. Bring it on Aaron Rodgers, we all felt, and good luck. We all know he has big shoes to fill, but life in the NFL has to move on and SOMEBODY has to play QB after Brett Favre, right?

Well, that somebody is back and pining for his old job two weeks before training camp. It's ludicrous to think that Favre should just come off his tractor in Mississippi, call up Mike McCarthy on June 20th and get his old job back. The NFL doesn't wait for anyone, which is why the Packers asked Favre to make a decision before the free agent signing period and before the NFL draft. It wasn't an unreasonable request by the Packers to ask him to make a decision by early March and all he had to do was say "yeah, I think I'm coming back" and the job would have been his. Nobody would have wanted Rodgers over Favre after last year's incredible season.

But he chose to retire in early March, he chose again in late March to tell McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson to stay at the owner's meeting in Florida instead of meet with him about coming back, and he chose to stay retired in May when Thompson visited with him at his home in Mississippi. He had plenty of chances to come back before all hell broke loose this week and didn't do it.

Editor's Note: Want to prove you are the best fantasy player in the country? Win $100,000 at the NBC Sports Fantasy football Championship, with drafts in New York, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Chicago.

Now don't get me wrong, I think the Packers would be best served with a healthy, spirited, happy Brett Favre at QB in 2008. I think he gives the Packers their best chance to reach the Super Bowl this year. But it's obvious that bus passed the minute he allowed Greta Van Susteren to interview him on Fox News this week. He is obviously so mad at the Packer organization that he will never wear the Green and Gold again, and Packer Nation is equally upset with him for the way he's handled this whole situation. The feeling now is STAY RETIRED BRETT.

The easiest course of action before this week would have been to welcome Brett back on June 20th when he called Mike McCarthy and made another run at the Super Bowl. But McCarthy told Brett that he saw how Joe Montana finished his career in Kansas City, and deep down he may have been saying "Brett, let's admit it, you looked old and battered in those two cold weather games against the Bears and Giants. It's best you stay retired."

It's not what Favre wanted to hear and when he felt unwelcome he decided to throw everyone under the bus to get his freedom for 2008. He burned good friend James Campen. He burned Teddy Thompson, which was easy because the stoic GM seems to care for Brett less than he does the cold weather in Wisconsin, and he even burned McCarthy. Packer Nation loves their heroes, but they love the Packers even more and not even Brett Favre is bigger than the organization.

So now what? Well, I predict that the Packers will not welcome him back and will not release him. If he decides to ask for reinstatement, then he has the right to show up in Green Bay and compete for a job. He sounds like he doesn't want to do that and knows it won't help his status in Green Bay any. But the Packers hold all the cards here and the only way to get them to make a move is to ask for reinstatement and show up in Green Bay.

If he does that, the Packers will decide to trade him or Rodgers. Put your money on Favre going in a trade. The Packers would likely try to trade him to an AFC team, but Favre will be adamant about playing on a title contender. Is there an AFC title contender who is just a QB away from the promised land? Not a single one, unless you think Buffalo, Kansas City or Baltimore can turn losing records into playoff spots. Not likely.

In the NFC, the best match is Tampa Bay. Favre would play for Jon Gruden, he would be familiar with that West Coast offense and the Bucs are a top QB away from being able to challenge for a Super Bowl spot. That would be a perfect fit for Favre, but would the Packers trade him to an NFC team? They might, but only if the price was right.

So let's analyze this soap opera from a fantasy perspective. How does Favre's request to return to the NFL affect all of the skill position players involved? First, let's look at the Green Bay Packers.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers had enough pressure on him before this, but now he's receiving the brunt of the blame for Favre's messy divorce. It's not fair as he's done nothing wrong. If anything, this could rally the fans around him. Honestly, I don't think anything changes with Rodgers or Ryan Grant or Donald Driver or anyone else in this offense. If anything, Greg Jennings has been downgraded slightly because people believe that Rodgers won't throw the long ball as often as Favre did last year. But the wideouts said that Rodgers' arm was stronger in mini-camp than at any point last year and some even said his arm is as strong as Favre's. I don't believe that, but this is obviously his team going forward and we'll see if he can handle the pressure and can stay healthy. Project a season of 3.000+ yards and 18-20 TDs if he can stay healthy for 16 games.

Brett Favre: If Favre somehow gets his wish and plays for another team, he will automatically become a Top 6 QB pick on Draft Day. Right now you'd definitely have to take Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Drew Brees ahead of him. If he were in Green Bay, you'd probably slot him fifth ahead of Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson or Ben Roethlisberger. But if he landed in Tampa Bay or with another title contender, I could see him fitting in either sixth, seventh or eighth here.

But remember one thing about Favre playing outside of Green Bay: He would need to learn a new offense in a hurry, he'd need to get in sync with his new teammates in a hurry, and someone there would have to corral him enough to keep him from trying to do too much with his new team. I think it's a recipe for failure because as good as Favre was last year he also was a product of knowing this offense like the back of his hand, he was more constrained under McCarthy and he was surrounded by plenty of playmakers. Going anywhere else could turn Favre into that 2005 version when he threw 29 INTs.

Packer Nation would gladly accept Favre back for 2008, but it's apparent that Favre has deeper wounds than we ever expected and that isn't going to happen. It's now time to move on for all parties involved. If that involves a trade, then fantasy-league owners should be prepared to realize that Favre will not be the same bargain he was in 2007. It's obvious the best of Brett Favre is behind us, whether you live in Packer Nation or not. So long No. 4, it was fun while it lasted.

[Hache Man]

The Rise of the PPR

Tom Kessenich is the event director of the National Fantasy Football Championship and the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship. Kessenich has been the Managing Editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine since 1999 and prior to that he was an NFL beat writer for a decade. Go to fantasyfootballchampionship.com for more details or call 800-726-9966 ext.
13284 to get signed up today to reserve a spot before the events sell out.

Given my youthful glow and exuberance, people are surprised to learn I first began playing fantasy football in the mid-80s. It's true. Some college friends and I got together and slapped a league together, a league that still exists to this day (although only myself and one of my friends remains from that debut league).

It seems like an eternity ago. So much has happened since then.

Since that time I've seen Sonny Crockett in pastels; Indiana Jones and his father seek the Holy Grail; Michael Jackson morph into one of the aliens Mulder and Scully spent year chasing; Shannon Doherty move from 90210 to a witch's house and Jack Bauer save the world six times in a 24-hour span.

I've also seen Sonny Crockett in a mullet; Indiana Jones looking and Jessica Simpson ... ummm ... well ... I guess you could call it trying to act. But some memories are not worth savoring.

A lot has happened since I first discovered this hobby. When you combine the experience I've gained in that time with my experience as an NFL beat writer, having covered the Packers for nearly a decade during the 90s, I like to think I know a thing or two about the NFL. One thing I know for certain is that for every fantasy football player in the country there's probably a unique league geared toward his or her special desires.

In recent years, we've seen Point-Per-Reception (or PPR) leagues become more and more prevalent in the industry. Many leagues use full PPR scoring for all players, meaning every player who catches a pass receives a full bonus point for their effort.

When we formed the National Fantasy Football Championship five seasons ago, we liked the PPR format but wanted to do what we could to ensure RBs didn't generate even more productivity. So we tweaked the scoring and allowed just .5 point-per-reception for RBs with all other players receiving a full point. In our estimation, that would increase the value of WRs specifically without over-inflating the importance of RBs. With QBs receiving six points per touchdown pass, we believed this would help ensure all three positions were important instead of just one.

As we enter our fifth season of the NFFC , we've certainly seen the results of that scoring decision. While RBs remain a critical component for championship teams, more and more of our owners are targeting WRs early on Draft Day as the foundation of their squads. Given how the new NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship uses the same scoring system, I believe we'll see similar strategies employed when that event debuts next month.

Back to the NFFC , the PPR format certainly flexed its muscles last season. Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Terrell Owens all averaged more than 20 points per game in the NFFC last year while another 15 receivers averaged at least 15 points per game.

That type of production has led to more WRs being taken in the early rounds than ever before. Last year, two WRs (Chad Johnson and Steve Smith) ranked as first-round selections based on their NFFC Average Draft Position while 11 more were selected in the next two rounds.
They were:

Marvin Harrison (ADP of 17)
Terrell Owens (19)
Larry Fitzgerald (23)
Roy Williams (25)
Torry Holt (27)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (28)
Andre Johnson (29)
Anquan Boldin (30)
Lee Evans (33)
Javon Walker (34)
Marques Colston (36)

So of the first 42 picks in NFFC drafts last year, 13 (or 31 percent) were wide receivers. Although RBs were still being pursued aggressively, the PPR format employed in the NFFC led to more WRs being taken in the early rounds.

The percentage of WRs being taken in the first three rounds is on the rise in NFFC drafts so far in 2008. According to ADP data on MockDraftCentral.com, 16 WRs (38 percent) are being taken in the opening three rounds of NFFC drafts to date. Of that group three are being taken in the first round:

Randy Moss (ADP of 8)
Reggie Wayne (12)
Terrell Owens (14)

The days of going RB-RB are clearly in decline as PPR formats have resulted in more teams realizing the importance of getting standout receivers in their quests for fantasy championships. That's not surprising when you consider the number of receptions a top WR will snare each week. Last season, for example, six receivers topped 100 receptions. They were:

T.J. Housmandzadeh (112)
Wes Welker (112)
Reggie Wayne (104)
Derrick Mason (103)
Brandon Marshall (102)
Larry Fitzgerald (101)

Five more topped 90 receptions, led by Randy Moss and Marques Colston, who both had 98. That's a healthy number of bonus points for NFFC and NBC owners to snare each week which is why we've seen more owners in our event pursue WRs more aggressively especially in the early rounds.

That's not to say RBs who catch passes don't have value in our scoring system. Even though they do not receive a full point-per-reception, the top receiving backs hold considerable value. Of the Top 5 RBs in NFFC scoring last season, only one (Adrian Peterson) caught fewer than 41 receptions. So RBs like LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush continue to have strong value in our scoring system.

But with a full point-per-reception being awarded to WRs, that position has generated more importance with each passing year of the NFFC .
So don't be surprised to see more and more WRs being taken in the early rounds in your drafts this year. It's a trend that isn't likely to end anytime soon.

Speaking of the NFFC and NBC events, spots are still available for our 14-team NFFC format and the 12-team NBC format but time will soon be running out. So if you want to secure a spot, don't delay. We will host both events on Saturday, Aug. 30 in Las Vegas, New York, Chicago and Orlando. The two events feature a $100,000 grand prize and if you enter both you will be eligible for a $1 million bonus which will be given to the owner who finishes first in both national events this year.
For more information about the event, go to nfc.nbcsports.com. Or you can contact me directly via email (tom.kessenich@fwpubs.com) or by phone (715 445-4612 ext. 13653) and I¹ll be happy to answer any questions you might have and get you signed up for one or both of our events.

[Hache Man]

Top 50 Position Battles: 21-50
The Brett Favre saga is lurching towards a conclusion this weekend. Which is good, because perhaps then people will realize there are 31 other teams out there. Camp has started with a bang, and Rotoworld you covered in our daily news (now hitting 100 posts a day), columns, blog posts, and videos.

Below is the bottom 30 of my top-50 position battles to watch during camp. The top 20 will be posted Monday as the first Daily Dose of the season. Then we'll have columns for you every weekday until Week 1. It is damn good to be back.

***

First, let's define what isn't a position battle. Willie Parker versus Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh is not a position battle. Neither is LenDale White vs. Chris Johnson or Ronnie Brown vs. Ricky Williams. These are all situations to watch, but these players are not competing for one job. They all will have the significant roles, and the starter is defined. Sadly, training camp and the preseason will barely provide clues as to the carry splits on these teams. We have to wait for Week 1.

We should learn much more about the battles below. Depth charts on these teams are flexible. Playing time and careers are at stake. Plenty of fantasy points are as well.

21. 49ers third receiver: Arnaz Battle vs. Jason Hill vs. Ashley Lelie

Mike Martz's third receiver spot is usually a treasure trove of fantasy value. There are indications he may use two tight ends more this season, but the winner here is draftable. Battle is the favorite; Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce are the starters.

22. Jaguars receivers: Reggie Williams vs. Dennis Northcutt vs. Mike Walker vs. Troy Williamson

With Jerry Porter hurt, the Jacksonville depth chart has opened up. It would be a surprise if Williams doesn't start, but Jack Del Rio has thrown curveballs in the past. Evan Silva called Walker his top prospect in the NFL. Keep an eye on him.

Note: Williams is one of the biggest busts in our online draft guide. Thanks to everyone who has been supporting us in big numbers.

23. Ravens starting quarterback: Troy Smith vs. Kyle Boller vs. Joe Flacco

A rare three-way quarterback battle. Flacco seems unlikely to get the job initially, but his presence limits the fantasy value of the winner. Smith looks like the slight favorite and could be a QB3 in a deeper league.

24. Patriots starting receiver: Jabar Gaffney vs. Chad Jackson

This battle could wind up being overrated. I expect both to get plenty of snaps this season, and I don't expect either player to provide consistent numbers. Gaffney is loved largely for his blocking. Bill Belichick has praised Jackson's development.

25. Rams backup RB: Brian Leonard vs. Antonio Pittman

Pittman reportedly had a big offseason, making him the heavy favorite for Steven Jackson handcuff status.

26. Ravens second receiver: Mark Clayton vs. Demetrius Williams

These two have a chance to emerge as sleepers if Cam Cameron's offense takes hold in Baltimore. I like Clayton's chances much better.

27. Bears starting quarterback: Kyle Orton vs. Rex Grossman

The winner of this battle? America. Patrick Dahl's moles in Chicago believe Orton will get the job. I expect it as well.

28. Dolphins starting quarterback: John Beck vs. Josh McCown

Rookie Chad Henne doesn't have a true chance to start in Week 1, which is probably for the best. Logically, the Dolphins should see what they have in Beck, so he's my favorite. I'll probably rank this winner number 32 out of opening week fantasy options at quarterback.

29. Bears backup running back: Kevin Jones vs. Adrian Peterson

This might be more accurately described as Jones vs. his knee. He needs to prove he's ready for the season before he can backup Matt Forte.

30. Bears receiver scrum: Brandon Lloyd vs. Devin Hester vs. Marty Booker vs. Mark Bradley vs. Earl Bennett

The only team in the league where the first five spots are wide open. Hester and Booker will stick somewhere in the top four, but everything else is up for grabs. Bradley is the most interesting if he could work his way into a starting job. See #26 before getting too crazy with anyone here.

31. Bills second receiver: James Hardy vs. Josh Reed

The rookie is the favorite, but the Bills offense needs major growth before making either player worth owning.

32. Chargers backup running back: Jacob Hester vs. Marcus Thomas vs. Darren Sproles

This could be a phony battle because they may split carries if LT2 gets hurt. Sproles should take passing down work, while Hester is likely to win early down snaps. Thomas is a big underdog. And Tomlinson owners may want to skip drafting his backup.

33. Falcons starting quarterback: Matt Ryan vs. Chris Redman

Redman is likely to get the Week 1 call, but he was out of the league for years. A big preseason could have Ryan starting from day one, which would limit the fantasy upside of Roddy White and company.

34. Titans number two receiver: Justin McCareins vs. the Tennessee Receiver All Stars

McCareins appears locked into a starting role opposite Justin Gage, but he's not good enough to assume the battle is over. Roydell Williams can't get healthy and Biren Ealy looks like a third receiver, so Brandon Jones, Mike Williams, Chris Davis, Lavelle Hawkins, and Paul Williams are all scrapping for playing time. Reminds me of the old saying, "When you have eight receivers, you really have none."

35. Bucs backup running back: Warrick Dunn vs. Michael Bennett

One senses that Jon Gruden wants to take carries away from Earnest Graham, but the options aren't exciting. Dunn is likely to win, but he's a late-round pick at best.

36. Cards backup running back: Marcel Shipp vs. J.J. Arrington vs. Tim Hightower

I don't know much about Hightower, but if his NFL career goes anything like his namesake, he's going to win this job. And that would be the only way fantasy leaguers should get interested in this one.

37. Broncos slot receiver: Brandon Stokley vs. Eddie Royal

Royal, a second round pick, will probably replace Stokley in 2009. With Brandon Marshall's suspension looming, both could pick up snaps early in the year.

38. Jets backup running back: Jesse Chatman vs. Musa Smith

Old Rotoworld favorite gets another chance for freedom. Sort of. With Leon Washington around, the winner would probably split carries if Thomas Jones gets hurt.

39. Packers backup running back: Brandon Jackson vs. Deshawn Wynn

In last season's column, the Packers starting job battle between Jackson and Vernand Morency was ranked number four. That's a good reminder that winning a camp battle doesn't mean you keep the job for the year.

40. Bills backup running back: Fred Jackson vs. Dwayne Wright

Jackson is the heavy favorite after a fantastic finish to last season, but he's not exactly John Riggins. Jackson is a worthy handcuff for Marshawn Lynch owners if he secures the job.

41. Browns backup running back: Jason Wright vs. Jerome Harrison

These two would probably split carries if Jamal Lewis got hurt, limiting their value.

42. Bengals third receiver: Antonio Chatman vs. Andre Caldwell vs. Jerome Simpson vs. Marcus Maxwell

The Chris Henry Memorial fantasy roster scholarship competition. We'd avoid the group for this season, though. Tight end Ben Utecht is more likely to provide consistent value while Caldwell and Simpson grow up.

43. Jets TE: Chris Baker vs. Dustin Keller

These two will probably share duties like Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen last season in Chicago. With a weak third receiver in New York, both will get significant snaps.

44. Cowboys third receiver: Miles Austin vs. Sam Hurd

Patrick Crayton looks locked into a starting job. We don't expect Terry Glenn to make a difference this year, and the Cowboys probably don't either.

45. Chiefs second receiver: Devard Darling vs. Jeff Webb vs. Will Franklin vs. Maurice Price

Hide the women and children. Whoever wins the job is going to be the worst starting receiver in the NFL since … Samie Parker.

46. Bucs backup quarterback: Luke McCown vs. Brian Griese

I'd set the over/under on Jeff Garcia starts this season around 10.5, so this battle matters more than you'd think.

47. Seahawks goal-line running back: T.J. Duckett vs. waiver wire

Does Mike Holmgren have the juice to cut a guy who the front office just gave a $2 million signing bonus to? Probably not, but he can bury him on the bench. The starting Seattle job doesn't make our list because Julius Jones is going to start, with a healthy helping of Maurice Morris involved.

48. Cardinals third receiver: Steve Breaston vs. Jerheme Urban vs. Early Doucet

Lot of odd names here. Urban doesn't seem to have much of a chance, while Breaston is surprisingly the favorite after a strong off-season. The winner becomes an in-season pickup if Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin gets hurt.

49. Browns third receiver: Kevin Kasper vs. Travis Wilson vs. Joe Jurevicius' staph infection

More targets for Kellen Winslow! And more magazine covers for Kasper!

50. Patriots backup quarterback: Matt Cassel vs. Matt Gutierrez

Who gets the call if the end of days arrives in New England? Rookie third-round pick Kevin O'Connell is a dark horse, but I suspect Gutierrez gets the job.

[Hache Man]

Nine stories to know from camp
Most NFL teams ease into training camp. Bill Belichick conducts full contact practices three times in a row to wake everyone up. That's our approach at Rotoworld, where we're ready to augment our non-stop posts with daily columns. The camp version of the Football Daily Dose will run three times a week through August. If you are reading this on our website, you can sign up for an email version of the Dose on the upper right hand corner of your screen. I'll hand off to Aaron Gleeman once the season starts; think of him as Maurice Jones-Drew to my Fred Taylor.

Our football traffic has more than doubled since training camp has started, so plenty of you know that football season starts in July. For those who have been at the beach or wrapped up in the MLB trading deadline, here's a quick primer on eleven items you need to know so far.

1. Brandon Marshall's suspension is expected to be long

Marshall has endured the mother of all bad offseasons, with a serious injury, poor conditioning reports, and arrests piling up. He was receiving a lot of bad press at this time last year, so I'm not worried about him getting into shape. I am worried that he will get suspended for a good chunk of the season. Early estimates range from four-to-eight games.

We should get the official word from the NFL this week. Expect Marshall to be a top-ten receiver when he plays, but missing four games would knock him out of the top-20 in our wideout projections.

Marshawn Lynch, incidentally, avoided any NFL punishment for his hit-and-run case over the summer. This was expected, but help solidify our top-eight overall ranking.

2 & 3. Marvin Harrison and Andre Johnson are just fine, thank you
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
I covered this in the blog, so won't repeat myself much here. But all the off-season worries about Harrison's knees are put to rest for now. He's practicing every day and looking strong, something he hasn't done in nearly a year. At 36 with legal matters still hanging over his head, Harrison is not without risk. But I challenge anyone to find a fifth-round pick with more upside. His potential is outweighing his risk at that price.

Johnson worried owners with a minor procedure on his knee during the summer. But he's been running routes for weeks and ready to live up to our number two wideout projection.

4. LaMont Jordan is a Patriot

As if Laurence Maroney wasn't unpredictable already. Jordan is a versatile player who can help the Patriots in power running situations and third downs, two of Maroney's weaknesses. Jordan crushes Sammy Morris' value as a sleeper. The Patriots are still expecting a big year from Maroney, but this will make it easier to monitor his workload early in the season. If Maroney gets hurt, expect some form committee between Jordan, Morris, and Kevin Faulk. Great move for the Patriots. Not so good for clarity in fantasy leagues.

5. More committee fun in New York, Seattle, Denver, Tampa?

Ahmad Bradshaw nearly split carries with Brandon Jacobs in the Giants Super Bowl run, and New York continues to rotate the two with the first team in Giants camp. Derrick Ward, coming off a broken leg, is also getting time with the ones when he's practicing. Jacobs is a rare player who can put up fantasy starter numbers on only 15 carries a game. Anything that keeps him healthy is a plus. Bradshaw looks unlikely to be suspended and remains one of Rotoworld's favorite sleepers.

In Seattle, most fantasy heads think that T.J. Duckett will backup Julius Jones. In reality, the Seahawks look headed for a close committee between Jones and Maurice Morris, with Duckett swapping old Falcons stories with coach Jim Mora Jr. on the sidelines. Coach Mike Holmgren called Jones and Morris "interchangeable" starters. Jones should be the lead back, but Morris will have a bigger role than people anticipate.

We know what to expect in Denver: the unexpected. Everyone that drafts Selvin Young in the fifth round should keep in mind that the depth chart at running back could change any day. The coaches and players all admit it.

There is even competition in Tampa, where Earnest Graham is clearly the best option. Jon Gruden says Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett are in the mix.

6. Ronnie's not ready
www.miamidolphins.ws
Ronnie Brown is not fully practicing yet, staying out of contact drills as he recovers from a torn ACL. He may skip the first few preseason games. His development will be something to watch closely, but the Dolphins look ready to ease him into the season. That means more Ricky Williams in our lives, which is always a good thing.

7. We don't want no drama

Chad Johnson isn't cleared to fully practice yet after ankle surgery, but he's settled his disagreements with the Bengals and continues to be undervalued in drafts. This was the consensus WR1 going into last season and he's coming off his career high in yards, people! It doesn't hurt that Johnson is essentially playing for a new, restructured contract for next offseason.

Javon Walker is like Ocho Cinco in the drama department, but without all the production to back it up. But at least he looks no worse for wear after getting assaulted in Las Vegas. His knee remains a serious concern, but his jaw and eye socket didn't suffer serious damage in the attack.

8. Holdout watch: Ryan Grant and Steven Jackson

Don't get carried away worrying about holdouts for veteran running backs. They can pick up things quickly when they return. I expect a resolution for both of these players fairly quickly, although Grant's holdout is starting to get more contentious. This becomes an issue if they aren't in camp by late August.

9. Aaron Rodgers is the man
www.greenbaypackers.ws
I could give up a full recap of the Brett Favre saga, but the news will probably change before you read this. While uncertainty reigns, one thing is clear: The Packers are moving forward with Aaron Rodgers. Rank him as if Favre isn't around, because Favre will not be starting for Green Bay this year. Rodgers remains our 16th-ranked quarterback.

Note: Part II of my position battles column will come on Wednesday.

[Hache Man]

Mock Draft Analysis
I participated in an 18-round draft with 13 others in the industry last week. The league awards 4 points for passing touchdowns and 6 for receiving and rushing scores. No points are awarded for receptions.

Owners start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 DEF/ST. We do not use a flex. Here are the first-half results with some commentary. The rest of this mock will be available in our must-have 2008 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

Round One

1.01. Fanball (Ryan Houston): LaDainian Tomlinson
1.02. FF Pro Forecast (Bob Harris): Adrian Peterson
1.03. Sports Grumblings (John Georgopoulos): Brian Westbrook
1.04. Rotoworld (Evan Silva): Steven Jackson
1.05. FantasyFootball.com (David Grey/Craig Davis): Marion Barber
1.06. RotoTimes (Rick Hawes): Joseph Addai
1.07. Fantasy Tailgate (Dan Labert): Frank Gore
1.08. Inside the Stats (Ken Maxwell/Seth Davis): Randy Moss
1.09. Monster Draft (Todd Beckstead): Clinton Portis
1.10. FFMastermind (Mike Nazarek): Larry Johnson
1.11. Fantasy Guru (Thomas Simons): Marshawn Lynch
1.12. IPL Sports (John Willette): Ryan Grant
1.13. Athlon/Grogan's (Dan & Kelly Grogan): Terrell Owens
1.14. The Huddle (Phil Gentles): Reggie Wayne


Best Value: Steven Jackson. I was ecstatic when Jackson fell to me at four. His holdout isn't a concern yet and he'll be highly motivated when he does return. The Rams' offense will be balanced, and I'm betting much more productive under new coordinator Al Saunders with Orlando Pace back healthy. Had I been picking first overall, I would've strongly considered taking Jackson in this format.

Shadiest Pick: Larry Johnson. L.J. is a poor bet to rebound because of his offensive line, quarterback, and head-coaching situations. The Chiefs won't threaten secondaries with their passing game and defenses will load up to stop the run. Even if L.J. pulls a Jamal Lewis and gets the step(s) he lost back, he won't have room to operate. He's more of a late second-round pick.

Trends, Etc: Barber went higher here than our Draft Guide recommends. I don't have a problem with it, especially if your league is rather touchdown-heavy like this one. MBIII is easy to fall in love with in Dallas' offense and Felix Jones doesn't scare me. Jones will return kicks and get some change-of-pace work like Leon Washington in New York. That won't be a true timeshare. Aside from L.J., I didn't dislike any picks in this round.

Round Two

2.01. Reggie Bush
2.02. Jamal Lewis
2.03. Willis McGahee
2.04. Maurice Jones-Drew
2.05. Braylon Edwards
2.06. Tom Brady
2.07. Willie Parker
2.08. Peyton Manning
2.09. Marques Colston
2.10. Laurence Maroney
2.11. Rotoworld: Andre Johnson
2.12. Larry Fitzgerald
2.13. Brandon Marshall
2.14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh


Best Value: Tom Brady. You won't see Brady fall out of the first round in many drafts. This league doesn't weigh passing TDs very heavily, but he's still an incredibly strong value at 20th overall. Even if New England's offense comes back to earth, Brady is a good bet for 36-40 touchdown passes and routine three-score weeks.

Shadiest Pick: Willie Parker. Though he'll likely remain a starter, Parker will become a clear committee back with Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall set to steal all passing-game and goal-line work. The Steelers didn't draft Mendenhall to sit, and Moore is a far more natural pass receiver than Fast Willie. I wouldn't touch FWP before the sixth round, even in a 14-team league.

Trends, Etc: The Marshall pick was made before NFL Network's report that he could be suspended up to eight games. We expect a slight falloff, but Lewis is still being drafted consistently as a borderline RB1. It's high for my taste, as was the Bush pick in a non-PPR setting. All the receivers drafted in this round were rock-solid values.


Round Three

3.01. Steve Smith (CAR)
3.02. Earnest Graham
3.03. Brandon Jacobs
3.04. Rotoworld: Chad Johnson
3.05. Torry Holt
3.06. Tony Romo
3.07. Plaxico Burress
3.08. Ronnie Brown
3.09. Edgerrin James
3.10. Michael Turner
3.11. Anquan Boldin
3.12. Santonio Holmes
3.13. Drew Brees
3.14. Wes Welker


Best Value: Drew Brees. Brees may not approach his insane attempts total from 2007, but he'll still throw as often as any quarterback in the league and do more with those tosses now that Jeremy Shockey is in New Orleans. Shockey is an all-around force and will make everyone around him better.

Shadiest Pick: Edgerrin James. This was a shocker, especially with Thomas Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Matt Forte available. James, who turns 30 on August 1, can only get worse than he was last year and will likely see his carries cut. He shouldn't be in the third-round conversation.

Trends, Etc: I don't like Welker much in this non-PPR format. 1,000 yards are doable again, but Welker won't repeat his eight scores and 100 catches doesn't make a difference here. I'm interested to see how many touches Turner will end up with because Atlanta is going to be playing from behind all season and he has 11 career catches. I think Jerious Norwood is a nice sleeper this year as Atlanta's presumptive passing-down specialist.

Round Four

4.01. Darren McFadden
4.02. Jason Witten
4.03. Jonathan Stewart
4.04. Roy Williams (DET)
4.05. Thomas Jones
4.06. Antonio Gates
4.07. Greg Jennings
4.08. Rudi Johnson
4.09. LenDale White
4.10. Calvin Johnson
4.11. Rotoworld: Matt Forte
4.12. Marvin Harrison
4.13. Selvin Young
4.14. Julius Jones


Best Value: Thomas Jones. Jones was the last "safe" RB2 off the board in terms of track record and job security. I realize he's not a game breaker, but no offensive line improved more on paper than the Jets' this offseason, and there will be much more emphasis on the running game in New York. The last time Jones played behind a decent offensive line, he ran for 1,210 yards and 6 scores. And that was in a "committee" with Cedric Benson.

Shadiest Pick: Rudi Johnson. I didn't know anyone still believed in Rudi, but apparently there are some hangers-on. We have Johnson as the RB37; here he was drafted as the RB26. There are several clear-cut backups I'd gamble on before him.

Trends, Etc: I really wanted Carson Palmer here, but the rest of the average to above average RB2s were going quick and I had to take Forte. This was before Kevin Jones' signing, not that I consider Jones a real threat. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will share time this season, with neither particularly likely to top 200 carries. I bet Seattle ends up going pass-heavy again. Also notice no quarterbacks in this round.



Round Five

5.01. Carson Palmer
5.02. Lee Evans
5.03. Dwayne Bowe
5.04. Rotoworld: Kellen Winslow
5.05. Kevin Smith
5.06. Tony Gonzalez
5.07. Hines Ward
5.08. Roddy White
5.09. Kevin Curtis
5.10. Donovan McNabb
5.11. Ben Roethlisberger
5.12. Derek Anderson
5.13. Chris Chambers
5.14. Jerricho Cotchery


Best Value: Carson Palmer. Palmer in the fifth round of a 14-team league is absolute robbery, even if it only awards 4 points for passing scores. The Bengals' passing game can take a big step forward with Palmer another year removed from ACL surgery, LT Levi Jones healthy, and Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh playing for raises. Ben Utecht replacing Chris Henry will work out just fine.

Shadiest Pick: Kevin Smith. I don't think it's easy to be a Kevin Smith fan. His outrageous 2007 carries total (450 in 14 games), lack of NFL-like competition at UCF, and upright running style have me concerned he'll hit the rookie wall by Week 8. And he's no lock to start any games before then. Smith definitely isn't someone I'd bank on as an RB2.

Trends, Etc: Roddy White in the fifth seems a shade early, but I'm not arguing with it. The Falcons' defense is atrocious on paper and they should be throwing to catch up all season. White will be the featured target in coordinator Mike Mularkey's scheme. We've finally reached the "second tier" of quarterbacks after skipping signal callers in round four.

Round Six

6.01. Matt Hasselbeck
6.02. Fred Taylor
6.03. Santana Moss
6.04. Dallas Clark
6.05. Nate Burleson
6.06. Donald Driver
6.07. DeAngelo Williams
6.08. Joey Galloway
6.09. Laveranues Coles
6.10. Jay Cutler
6.11. Rotoworld: Rashard Mendenhall
6.12. Chris Cooley
6.13. Todd Heap
6.14. Anthony Gonzalez


Best Value: Laveranues Coles. We've touched on how low Coles is going in fantasy drafts a good deal, but he's a quality sixth-round selection in a 14-team format. With his ankle healthy and 17 scores over the past three seasons, you could do way worse as a WR2/3.

Shadiest Pick: DeAngelo Williams. A lot of picks in this round have bust potential (Burleson, Taylor, Galloway), but none more than Williams. There's a reason Carolina took another back 13th overall, and it isn't so Jonathan Stewart can ride the pine. John Fox uses the power run game, and Williams doesn't fit as more than a pace change. I'd be stunned if Williams gets more than 120 carries this year.

Trends, Etc: All the positive reports about Marvin Harrison's health will soon begin dropping Gonzalez's Average Draft Position. I don't see Gonzo as a great gamble this early. Burleson is another reach, but at least he's locked into a starting job. Burleson struggled with Mike Holmgren's offense his first two years in Seattle, but he's intriguing as D.J. Hackett's replacement at split end.

Round Seven

7.01. Chester Taylor
7.02. Jake Delhomme
7.03. Ahman Green
7.04. Rotoworld: Vincent Jackson
7.05. Bernard Berrian
7.06. Jerry Porter
7.07. Kenny Watson
7.08. Eli Manning
7.09. Bobby Engram
7.10. Marc Bulger
7.11. Reggie Brown
7.12. Vernon Davis
7.13. Felix Jones
7.14.Jeremy Shockey


Best Value: Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a far safer pick than Vernon Davis, Todd Heap, or Dallas Clark, and all three went before him. He'll be New Orleans' No. 2 receiver. When you're the No. 2 receiver on the Saints, your downside is David Patten last year (54 catches, 792 yards), and that's quality production from a fantasy TE. Shockey also presents one heck of a red-zone target, and if Deuce McAllister has a setback, the Saints will have to pass often to score touchdowns.

Shadiest Pick: Jake Delhomme. The Delhomme Hype Machine is on full blast, but the reality is that he has a reconstructed elbow and plays in a run-heavy offense that will always keep his potential down. I wouldn't have a problem making Delhomme my QB2 in the 11th or 12th round, but there are too many factors working against him to a top-11 quarterback.

Trends, Etc: Owners are starting to get a bit desperate for quarterbacks. The guy who drafted Rudi Johnson reaches a bit here for Kenny Watson, but it's what he had to do. Bernard Berrian goes before he should. Coming off a down year, Reggie Brown continues to look like a value pick.

Round Eight

8.01. Ricky Williams
8.02. Bryant Johnson
8.03. Derrick Mason
8.04. Chris Johnson
8.05. Owen Daniels
8.06. Deuce McAllister
8.07. Ben Watson
8.08. David Garrard
8.09. Chris Brown
8.10. Patrick Crayton
8.11. Rotoworld: Matt Schaub
8.12. Jon Kitna
8.13. Javon Walker
8.14. Philip Rivers


Best Value: David Garrard. Garrard's rushing stats and new teammates give him breakout potential, and he's a weapon inside the 20 himself. Garrard threw nine touchdown passes in the Jags' last four games last season and is a virtually surefire top-12 QB – something tough to find this late.

Shadiest Pick: Javon Walker. This could've been the 12th round and I might've called Walker the "shadiest pick." Deuce McAllister is another guy with bad knees I wouldn't touch. The Raiders beat writers expect Ronald Curry to lead the team in receiving this year, and I couldn't disagree.

Trends, Etc: Rotoworld favorite Matt Schaub is my starting quarterback. We have faith in Schaub because his injuries last year were fluky and the Texans' offensive line should improve under new position coach Alex Gibbs. Until CB Dunta Robinson (knee) returns at mid-season, they may also have to throw often to stay in games, particularly with no reliable or starting-caliber running back on the roster.

Round Nine

9.01. Justin Fargas
9.02. Sidney Rice
9.03. Darrell Jackson
9.04. Rotoworld: Donte' Stallworth
9.05. Matt Leinart
9.06. Vince Young
9.07. Alge Crumpler
9.08. Aaron Rodgers
9.09. Jason Campbell
9.10. Isaac Bruce
9.11. Sammy Morris
9.12. Drew Bennett
9.13. Jerious Norwood
9.14. Mark Clayton


Best Value: Darrell Jackson. I wouldn't have said this before a report that Jackson is running as a first-team receiver in Denver. Jackson could also be Jay Cutler's go-to option while Brandon Marshall is suspended. I don't necessarily think Jackson should be drafted any higher than this, but he was a fine pick in an offense he knows well and on a team in trouble at wideout.

Shadiest Pick: Matt Leinart. It seems early to draft a guy who might not even start, and surely will be on a short leash. I'm a believer in Leinart long term, but V.Y., Rodgers, and Campbell all would've been safer picks. Job security is a key factor when drafting ninth-round QB2s.

Trends, Etc: The elite QB2s are coming off the board. Owners are also targeting bounce-back candidates (Mark Clayton, Drew Bennett, Young, Crumpler). Sammy Morris' roster spot may be in doubt following the Patriots' addition of LaMont Jordan. I can't see Bill Belichick keeping four tailbacks at final cuts.

[Hache Man]

Top 20 Position Battles
For today's Dose, we'll look at the top 20 position battles to watch over the next month. #21-50 were posted last week.

First, let's define what isn't a position battle. Willie Parker versus Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh is not a position battle. Neither is LenDale White vs. Chris Johnson or Ronnie Brown vs. Ricky Williams. These are all situations to watch, but these players are not competing for one job. They all will have the significant roles, and the starter is established. Unfortunately, training camp and the preseason will barely provide clues as to the carry splits on these teams. We have to wait for Week 1.

We should learn much more about the battles below. Depth charts on these teams are flexible. Playing time and careers are at stake. So are a few fantasy titles.

1. Denver starting running back: Selvin Young vs. Mike Shanahan's history

Young is clearly the starter for now, but there are questions about his ability to carry the ball 20 times a game and nothing is set in stone in Denver. Fantasy leaguers are hedging their bets, taking him as a sixth-round pick. So far, it doesn't appear that Andre Hall, Ryan Torain, Michael Pittman, and Anthony Aldridge have made a big move up.

2. Panthers starting running back: Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams
www.carolinapanthers.ws
The Panthers didn't draft Stewart thirteenth overall to sit the bench, but he still has to prove himself healthy in camp. Getting established as the clear starter would be huge, because John Fox prefers to ride one back. Stewart is getting overlooked in drafts for someone with top-ten potential. He's been healthy early in camp and impressing in red zone drills.

Editor's Note: Learn out optimistic projections for Stewart in our online draft guide.

3. Raiders starting running back: Justin Fargas vs. Darren McFadden vs. Michael Bush
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Fargas is going four rounds after McFadden in drafts, but he still has a good chance to start in Week 1 and lead the team in carries. Michael Bush has an opportunity to vulture short-yardage work, further muddying the value in Oakland. This team can run block and will be a run-heavy team. If McFadden can climb the depth chart immediately, he'll be a safer top-40 fantasy pick.

4. Texans starting running back: Ahman Green vs. Chris Brown vs. Steve Slaton vs. Chris Taylor vs. Darius Walker

Green remains the favorite, although it's unlikely he and Brown can stay healthy for long at the same time. I've seen Green going in the eleventh round of drafts - as late as a starting running back will ever go. That reflects Fantasy Nation's wise understanding that we'll probably see many starters in Houston this year.

5. Lions starting running back: Kevin Smith vs. Tatum Bell vs. Brian Calhoun
www.detroitlions.ws
Calhoun is a long shot, but he could carve out a third-down role. I've been vocal about my concern about Smith. Both he and Bell made our online draft guide's bust list.

6. Broncos starting receiver: Darrell Jackson vs. Keary Colbert

With Brandon Marshall's suspension looming, both players could start early in the season. Jackson has the early edge when Marshall returns. While I don't love his game (way too many drops and is soft going over the middle), Jackson is in a familiar system and will see targets. He could be undervalued.

7. Panthers starting receiver: Muhsin Muhammad vs. D.J. Hackett
www.carolinapanthers.ws
Playing opposite Steve Smith should be a more advantageous spot than Colbert showed in recent years. No one has stood out in Carolina thus far, and both should get plenty of time in three wideout sets.

8. Colts backup running back: Dominic Rhodes vs. Kenton Keith vs. Mike Hart
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
Don't assume Rhodes gets the job automatically because of his history with the team, although he is the favorite. The Colts will be careful not to overwork Joseph Addai, making the winner a fine fantasy reserve.

9. Bucs second receiver: Antonio Bryant vs. Michael Clayton vs. Ike Hilliard vs. Maurice Stovall
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
This will probably come down to Bryant vs. Clayton. Bryant has the best combination of age and talent on the team and remains one of our favorite sleepers if he can win the job. Early reports have been positive. Bryant is rolling with one of my favorite mottos, "Right now I'm going to undersell you and over-deliver," he says. I'm better at the undersell part.

10. Bengals backup running back: Kenny Watson vs. Chris Perry

Perry is finally healthy, but he's only managed 73 carries since being drafted in 2004. I would not be shocked if Perry wins the camp battle, but Watson wins the war as the team's leading rusher once Perry and Rudi Johnson fall by the wayside.

11. 49ers starting quarterback: Alex Smith vs. Shaun Hill

It sounds like this battle is close thus far, although Smith probably has to struggle badly in the preseason to lose the gig. I drafted Smith as my QB2 in a league where I took Peyton Manning at 3.9. (Let's not get carried away with the knee injury, people.) Since this team will pass so much, there is potential for solid yardage from the winner.

12. Giants backup running back: Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Derrick Ward
www.newyorkgiants.ws
This battle may not fit under my criteria, and it should possibly include Brandon Jacobs. The Giants are splitting first team reps, but Jacobs will wind up starting and enjoying a prominent role. They will protect him by using some form of a committee, likely with Bradshaw in the supporting role. Ward may need an injury in front of him to see regular work.

13. Saints running back: Deuce McAllister vs. his knees

He can be Reggie Bush's tag team partner if healthy, but medical history is stacked against him after microfracture and ACL surgery in the same off-season. Early results from Deuce have been mixed, increasing supersleeper Pierre Thomas' value.

14. Jets quarterback: Kellen Clemens vs. Chad Pennington
www.newyorkjets.ws
Ridiculously early interception numbers from camp: Kellen Clemens 5, Chad Pennington 0. Clemens is going to need strong preseason numbers, but he's fighting an uphill battle. Brett Favre doesn't appear interested in joining this group.

15. Saints second receiver: David Patten vs. Robert Meachem vs. Devery Henderson

Rookie seventh-round pick Adrian Arrington has also made a lot of noise, but he's a long shot. This spot is slightly less valuable with Jeremy Shockey on the team, but there are yards to be claimed on this pass-first offense.

16. Seahawks third receiver: Courtney Taylor vs. Logan Payne vs. Ben Obomanu

With Bobby Engram often playing from the slot, the winner of this battle could get starter-worthy snaps. Taylor entered camp as the slight favorite, but Payne has impressed all offseason, including this week. He's one of Rotoworld's favorite deeeeep sleepers for dynasty leaguers.

17. Eagles backup running back: Correll Buckhalter vs. Lorenzo Booker

Brian Westbrook owners search for a handcuff

18. Chiefs backup running back: Kolby Smith vs. Jamaal Charles
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Charles has rare speed, but Smith held up well in six late season starts. If Larry Johnson breaks down again, Kansas City is well covered. Now they just need some linemen. And a quarterback. And a second receiver.

19. Redskins second receiver: Antwaan Randle El vs. Malcolm Kelly vs. Devin Thomas
www.washingtonredskins.ws
Washington would ideally use Randle El in the slot, with a rookie starting on the outside. Thomas' early injury gives Kelly a leg up, although fantasy leaguers don't need to draft the winner.

20. Brett Favre vs. our attention span
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Can we keep up the pace of Favrewatch 2008? Favre doesn't seem interested in the Bucs or Jets, but he has to play somewhere. It's hard to imagine it will be in Green Bay, especially with the Packers trying to get him to stay away. Favre continues to pine for Minnesota, but the Packers simply can't allow that. There are no easy answers here, just endless updates.

Note: I'm going to be chatting on my blog at 4:30PM Wednesday. Stop on by if you have time to kill.

[Hache Man]

Top 15 IDP Camp Battles
Gregg Rosenthal delved into the 20 most important skill position competitions on Wednesday. Here I examine the top 15 battles at Individual Defensive Player (IDP) positions.

For IDP newcomers, I wrote a column in our 2008 Rotoworld Fantasy Draft Guide that provides a rundown of each position in a 3-4 and 4-3 defense and how productive players in those roles tend to be. If you're already a subscriber or in the process of becoming one, check it out and let me know if it helps.

The Draft Guide contains rankings of the top 83 linebackers (LBs), 73 defensive linemen (DLs), and 100 defensive backs (DBs). Scott Morrow penned an Undervalued IDPs column and Rosenthal a Rookie Ranks article. As you can see, the guide contains an abundance of worthwhile content.

Getting to know defensive players is a useful way to understand how certain teams' defenses work. It can benefit fantasy leaguers on the other side of the ball as well. Increasing your basic player-by-player knowledge allows you to become a more informed fan and a dominant fantasy owner.

1. Broncos Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Nate Webster, Niko Koutouvides

Denver signed Koutouvides, Lofa Tatupu's old backup in Seattle, to a $7.5 million contract in March and penciled him in as D.J. Williams' replacement inside. That lit an apparent fire under Webster, who's been so impressive in offseason workouts that the race is now dead even. Webster has the advantages of superior athleticism and experience in Denver's scheme, while Koutouvides would likely be more stout versus the run, a weakness for the Broncos last year. Williams posted an AFC-best 141 tackles in the middle in 2007, so it is a hotspot for production.

2. Lions Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Paris Lenon, Jordon Dizon

The incumbent, Lenon opened camp as the clear leader and gained some separation when Dizon held out a few days. Detroit's second-round pick, Dizon has the speed and instincts that make him a strong fit in Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2. However, middle linebacker in that scheme not an easy position to play and Lenon knows what it entails. The loser will likely start at strong-side linebacker, a much less tackle-friendly position. The winner could challenge WLB Ernie Sims for the Lions' tackle lead. There is a chance that Lenon will start in Week 1 and give way to Dizon after a few games.

3. Chiefs Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Donnie Edwards, Napoleon Harris, Pat Thomas

You wouldn't know it by his totals (116 tackles, 2 sacks), but Harris busted as the Chiefs' MIKE in 2007. Imagine how many stops he would've made if he was a good player. Edwards is 35, but can still move and bag ball carriers. Our money is on him ending up as the starter because he is a playmaker and Herm Edwards wants his middle 'backer to create takeaways. But Thomas, a journeyman special teamer, has shockingly taken the early lead. Edwards is currently stationed on the weak side, ahead of slow starting free agent signee Demorrio Williams.

4. Lions Strong Safety

Competitors: Daniel Bullocks, Gerald Alexander, Kalvin Pearson

Bullocks was supposed to have grasped this job by now, but has been extremely slow to recover from the ACL he tore nearly a year ago. He has not practiced yet in camp. Alexander, Detroit's starting free safety last season, is a better cover player but not the ballhawk Bullocks can be. Pearson is a career special teamer. The Lions' front seven is among the league's least talented, so tons of opposing ball carriers should get into their secondary all season. If one can control this job, he could lead the NFL in tackles by a defensive back. There's no frontrunner yet.

5. Browns Right Cornerback

Competitors: Brandon McDonald, Terry Cousin

McDonald showed he can play in spot duty last year and has been with the first team opposite Eric Wright all offseason. But Cousin is a savvy vet and won't give up easily. The Browns were also in the hunt to acquire Fabian Washington on draft weekend (he ultimately went to the rival Ravens), so a trade could still be made (Lito Sheppard, Ashton Youboty?). But for now, McDonald appears to be locked in. A former wide receiver, McDonald has terrific ball skills and is a willing tackler. If he solidifies the position, he'll be a solid DB2/3 target.

6. Jaguars Weak-Side Linebacker

Competitors: Daryl Smith, Justin Durant, Clint Ingram

This battle is really Durant against himself. Ingram is a strong-side player and Smith can play all three positions. Durant is a shade small, but has spectacular athleticism and packs an explosive punch. The second-year linebacker began camp as Jacksonville's starter on the weak side. If he stays there, Ingram will likely be first off the bench with Smith at SAM and Mike Peterson in the middle. Durant could get 100 tackles as a 16-game starter at this position.

7. Buccaneers Left Defensive End

Competitors: Marques Douglas, Kevin Carter, Greg White

At about 300 pounds apiece, Douglas and Carter are the best run players of this group, but White possesses rare pass-rushing and open-field hitting ability. He led all NFL defensive linemen in forced fumbles (7) and recorded eight sacks despite being a rotational piece in 2007. White is also playing for a contract. Carter is currently getting the most first-team reps, but perhaps only because he is an early-down force. Even if White doesn't "win" the competition, he should play the most snaps overall. If White does pass Carter, he'd have top-15 DL potential.



8. Falcons Middle Linebacker

Competitors: Tony Taylor, Curtis Lofton

Taylor and Lofton are currently rotating days with the first-string defense. Lofton is far and away the better talent, but Taylor is a hometown kid and former undrafted free agent who knows how to seize an opportunity. Since the Falcons figure to be on defense quite a bit this season, their middle linebacker projects to get lots of playmaking and tackle chances. The smart money is on Lofton winning due to his high draft status (No. 37 overall). Two rookie MIKE 'backers -- San Francisco's Patrick Willis and Carolina's Jon Beason -- posted 140 or more stops last season.

9. Bengals Strong Safety

Competitors: Dexter Jackson, Chinedum Ndukwe

The Bengals listed Jackson as their starter on the preliminary depth chart, but probably only because he's the incumbent. The organization is pulling for Ndukwe, as he is cheaper, younger, and more durable. Jackson has not played 16 games since 2003. Ndukwe also has the edge in pure athleticism, but this one could go down to the wire. Behind a leaky front seven that starts recent street free agent pickup Dhani Jones at middle linebacker, the Bengals' strong safety has enormous potential.

10. Jaguars Strong Safety

Competitors: Gerald Sensabaugh, Brian Williams

The Jags wanted Sensabaugh to capture this job in 2007, but his season ended in Week 2 with a torn labrum. Sensabaugh has proven too injury prone to rely on, so Williams, a sure tackler, converted to strong safety this spring after Drayton Florence signed to replace him at corner. Williams reportedly looks like a natural at the new position. He won't be handed the job, though, and this remains an ongoing competition. The Jags' starter at strong safety in 2007 (Sammy Knight) recorded 93 tackles, good for seventh most among all NFL defensive backs and Williams is a better player than Knight in space.

11. Texans Weak-Side Linebacker

Competitors: Morlon Greenwood, Xavier Adibi

Greenwood has been a staple in Houston's defense since 2005 and annually tops 100 tackles. But he isn't a stout, run-stopping linebacker and rarely causes turnovers. Adibi, the team's fourth-round pick, is a fierce hitter with better size and just as much range. He also projects as a better blitzer than Greenwood and has good hands. Adibi is safely behind Greenwood at this stage, but their spots on the depth chart are subject to switch late in August.

12. Cowboys Right Cornerback

Competitors: Anthony Henry, Pacman Jones, Mike Jenkins

Jenkins was the 25th pick overall in April, but appears the clear underdog here. Henry and Jones are first-rate tacklers with top-notch ball skills. Jones is more of a homerun threat after the pick. Because the Cowboys' offense will remain up tempo and teams will have to throw against them often, their cornerbacks will have plenty of big-play opportunities. If Jones wins, Henry could move to strong safety, a position he already replaces Roy Williams at in Dallas' nickel package. That would make both Henry and Pacman more interesting IDPs.

13. Steelers Right Inside Linebacker

Competitors: Larry Foote, Lawrence Timmons

It wasn't a surprise when Foote ran with the starters on the first day of camp, but there is very little chance that the incumbent starter will be a three-down player in 2008, even if he keeps his first-team role. Timmons is more disruptive and could be extremely dangerous on interior blitzes. At worst, Timmons will force himself into a timeshare next to James Farrior. If Timmons takes the job outright, few 3-4 inside 'backers would have as high a ceiling in big-play leagues.

14. Dolphins Right Outside Linebacker

Competitors: Charlie Anderson, Quentin Moses

This is the position Jason Taylor would've played if he hadn't been traded. It is a pure pass rusher's position. That makes Anderson, the current favorite, an odd fit because he has three career sacks in four seasons. Anderson should be solid in run support, bot Moses offers more upside as a pressure player off the edge and he isn't far behind. The winner here is a sleeper to tally double-digit sacks.

15. Jaguars Right Defensive End

Competitors: Reggie Hayward, Quentin Groves, Derrick Harvey

After failing to land Jason Taylor, the Jags sold their souls (a first, two thirds, and a fourth-round pick) to trade up for Harvey. He isn't even signed yet and is losing ground at a rapid pace. Harvey is raw and only had 6.5 sacks in his last year at Florida, making the entire situation a head scratcher. Hayward, coming off a weak four-sack campaign, would probably be replaced by Groves on passing downs if the season began today. If one of these competitors emerges as an every-down end, he'll be worth a DL2/3 pick. But it currently looks like a battle to avoid.

[Hache Man]

Grant building a tomb?

Most holdouts are overrated. It's even a maxim Rotoworld's guide to training camp. Occasionally, though, a poorly timed holdout by an inexperienced player can allow an emerging backup to impress coaches. That could be happening to Ryan Grant in Green Bay.

2007 second round pick Brandon Jackson has impressed writers and coaches all off-season, getting nearly all the first-team reps. I usually remain skeptical of such puff pieces, especially for someone so disappointing the previous year. Jackson was a bust as a rookie. His training camp last season was a horror show of missed blocks and tentative running. He fell behind every Packer back at one point during the season. A junior eligible draft pick, Jackson admits he was overwhelmed. While he's not as decisive a runner as Grant, his receiving abilities could get him on the field.

Here's a line from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that should scare the cheese out of Grant's keeper league owners, "When Grant returns, Jackson might be entrenched far enough that the two will share the starting position."

While that sounds overdramatic, Jackson could worm his way into the lesser half of a committee. Grant still must prove he can hold up over the course of the season, and he struggled badly in power situations and on screen passes last year. (Thanks to the awesome ProFootballProspectus for that information.) He's not a complete player yet.

Jackson wasn't even on our top-200 board initially because his role was uncertain, but he's climbing the list now and could go higher. Will Grant fall from his number twelve overall perch? A lot depends on when he shows up to camp. It's still early, and a quick resolution would help solidify Grant's spot. The longer he stays out, though, the better chance Jackson has to steal his touches.

While the rest of the world focuses on another Packer with an uncertain future, here are some other notes from around training camp …

The NFL announced Thursday that Chris Henry's indefinite suspension was, well, definite. It will only last four games and he's free to sign with another team. If Adam "don't call me Pacman" Jones can get another job, so can Henry. In fact, he'd make a lot of sense as Pacman's teammate.

Editor's Note: Check out where all the Cowboys rank as Tiffany Simons talks to Tony Romo in our Fantasy Fix preview.

Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants, on the other hand, will not be suspended by the league for serving a month in jail this summer because of his parole. It's clear that Bradshaw will be counted on for a big role this season, and he remains one of Rotoworld's favorite undervalued picks. A lot of owners see a scat-back with a lucky playoff run. We see one of the most talented young runners in the league playing behind an excellent offensive line. He's going to get enough touches to help you. Meanwhile, we wait for official word on Brandon Marshall's punishment. Expect a decision shortly.

Don't call us, we'll call you. That's basically what the Titans told Byron Leftwich after meeting with him Thursday. He is only going to join the team if Vince Young or Kerry Collins get hurt

Notes: Anquan Boldin needed an MRI for his balky hamstring. It's not a huge concern, but also not a great sign for someone who often struggles with nagging injuries. … Ryan Torain is getting more snaps with the first team in Broncos camp. With Michael Pittman playing fullback, don't be shocked to see Torain as the lesser half of a committee with Selvin Young early this season. … The Titans may have ended Mike Williams' career by cutting him Thursday. But Mel Kiper still thinks the nine teams that passed on him were idiots.

Devery Henderson was already on the roster bubble, so his latest injury could seal his fate. With Robert Meachem and Adrian Arrington playing well, the Saints don't need Henderson. They can find someone else to run really fast in a straight line and drop passes. … The Falcons quarterback battle is wide open. Not that you were considering drafting Chris Redman, but Matt Ryan starting from day one would hurt Roddy White. … Handcuff updates: Rookie Tim Hightower has a chance to back up Edgerrin James, while Tony Hunt looks like the odd man out in Philadelphia. Lorenzo Booker has impressed and should pass Correll Buckhalter on the depth chart.

Reggie Williams' recovery from knee surgery doesn't have a timeline, which is never a good sign. He was barely draftable on Rotoworld's board before the injury. … The Texans want to form a committee of Ahman Green and Chris Brown, but Brown's nagging injuries are damaging his chances. He needs to get back on the field. … Finally, an IDP sleeper alert. Forget Jaguar Pat Thomas is currently Kansas City's starting middle linebacker. That may not last, but you've been warned.

[Hache Man]

As the Favre Turns
Way back in the dark ages of July, Aaron Rodgers was one of my favorite value picks at quarterback. Those days are over. Brett Favre is back with the Packers, and some clarity is finally emerging in Green Bay. We think.

Sure, a trade is still possible. Perhaps Favre will change his mind and re-retire, then un-retire again, and then Ted Thompson's head will explode, making Lambeau field too slippery to play on. Barring all that, the only reasonable assumption is that Brett Favre will be starting in Minneapolis on September 8. For the Packers. www.greenbaypackers.ws

Where Favre Fits

Ideally, fantasy drafts are held in late August and early September. By then, the Packers starting quarterback should officially be announced. This story isn't ending anytime soon, but by then fences can be mended, limiting the amount of uncertainty inherent in drafting Favre.

That doesn't mean owners should expect Favre to repeat his 2007 numbers. In the two seasons before last year's revival, Favre threw 38 touchdowns and 47 interceptions. His weapons and familiarity with Mike McCarthy's offense is undoubtedly better now, but he's also turning 39 years old and missed most of the off-season.

Favre is set up for relative success in McCarthy's scheme, but he'll face some brand new risks. For the first time ever, Favre could have slight job security questions. If the Packers struggle for any reason, it's conceivable that Favre could be benched. While that's unlikely, it's fair to say that the organization's reverence for Favre's "legacy" has waned in recent weeks.

Favre no longer belongs in the discussion of the top-five quarterbacks in fantasy and reality. Assuming he gets to Week 1 as the starter, we'd slot him as our twelth-ranked quarterback, behind guys like David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck, but ahead of Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Vince Young. He's a borderline QB1.

Editor's Note: See Favre's new rank and projection in Rotoworld's draft guide.

As Favre knows, you have to start every season back at the bottom of the mountain. It was likely one of the reasons he decided to give up the game in March. And as many aging quarterbacks before him have found, Favre may find it difficult to reach such great heights again.

Mr. Rodgers' New 'Hood: Waiver Wire?

Aaron Rodgers has all the tools to be successful once he plays. He also has a tool blocking his path to get on the field. It would be an upset if Brett Favre is the backup in Week 1. It would be an even greater upset for Rodgers to keep the starting job all season, even if he won the quarterback competition in camp. Until Favre is off the roster, Rodgers is a last-round flier in deep leagues. At best. He's Kurt Warner without the history of production; an interesting backup who remains second fiddle to a newsmaking teammate.

Affect on the rest of the Packers

Don't get carried away projecting huge jumps for the Green Bay receivers if Favre wins the starting job. His return is good news for old buddies Donald Driver and Donald Lee, but we already projected Green Bay to be a fine passing offense. We'll give some of the receivers modest bumps, but that's primarily because the chances of Brian Brohm playing for the Packers this season are vanishing.

[Hache Man]

Nine Fantasy Draft Trends
Each draft season has defining features. Here are nine trends from this year's early drafts, using Average Draft Position (ADP) information.

Note: This column is an updated version of one in our online draft guide. If this is the type of content you enjoy, check out all our rankings, projections, tiers, cheat sheets, and columns.

1. The Blotter Boys

Three wideouts who have bathed in hot water this offseason are now flashpoints for 2008 drafts: Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall, and Marvin Harrison. Smith was drafted as an early-third round pick before his recent two game suspension. It's too early to know how that news plus trade rumors will change his ADP, but it doesn't change Rotoworld's ranking much. Smith fell out of the top tier of wideouts, but he's still ranked as a third-round value ahead of players like Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin. Two fantasy starts from a reserve wideout + Steve Smith still equals elite production. Don't let him slip too far.

Brandon Marshall escaped a worst-case scenario when the NFL Network announced he will be suspended only two games if he undergoes counseling. Recent estimates were as high as 4-8 games. Marshall has also been slipping in drafts, but you aren't going to find a more talented player after the first three rounds.

Marvin Harrison's legal troubles plus his knee injuries caused his stock to plummet in mid-summer drafts, but most of those concerns are fading away. He has practiced well at training camp and we haven't heard a peep about his gun troubles in months. While he's 36, Harrison scored at least ten times for eight straight seasons before last year. I'd bet a fourth or fifth round pick he can score eight this year. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Even Chad Johnson continues to fall deep into the third round because of all the hot air he blew this summer. Many fantasy owners are afraid to gamble on players with "character" problems, but these guys won't change your locker room. We'll take talent and a little anxiety at the right price any day.

2. The Brady Effect

Owners must decide how high they are willing to take a quarterback, specifically the one that threw 50 touchdown passes last season. Early numbers suggest most owners are comfortable grabbing Brady after the top five running backs. Rotoworld has Brady slightly lower because of his previous career stats (season high was 28 touchdowns), and the depth at quarterback.

Your league scoring system makes a huge difference with Brady. He makes a lot more sense in the top five if you get six points per passing touchdown.

The addendum to the Brady Effect is the Moss Effect. Like Brady, Moss was taken in the fourth round a year ago. Now he will be taken earlier than any receiver in years. Owners must decide if he's worth more than a first-round running back. We have Moss ranked higher than Brady.

3. The Second Round Dilemma

2007 was a huge year in the NFL for passing games and it is reflected early in drafts. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo join Tom Brady as quarterbacks taken in the top two rounds. Manning is usually by himself.

Ten wide receivers are getting taken in the top-30 picks. Only eight were last season. Owners must decide in the second and third round whether to grab surer bets at quarterback and wide receiver or pick up a risky running back before they run out.

Rotoworld likes taking a receiver early far more than a quarterback. We give nine receivers a second round grade, with only Willis McGahee breaking up our "run" of tightly bunched WR1s in the second round. Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Johnson sneak into the end of our second round. Every draft is different, but it's a good year to go RB-WR-WR at the top of drafts depending on who falls to you. We see quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Drew Brees, and Carson Palmer as picks after the first three rounds.

Note: Compete with the best for a $100,000 prize at the NBC Sports National Football Championship. And chat on their message boards with me Tuesday at 2PM.

4. Mid-Round Starting Running Backs

The rise of the passing game and the proliferation of running back committees are pushing starting running backs further down the draft board. Thomas Jones and LenDale White aren't sexy picks, but they are decent bets to hit 300 touches. They aren't going in the top-50 picks.

Matt Forte, Selvin Young, Jonathan Stewart, Julius Jones, Rudi Johnson, and Justin Fargas are likely starting running backs that are falling. There will be quality RB2s and RB3s available in the middle rounds who get touches. That isn't usually the case. We'd take them over likely committee partners such as Willie Parker in the top-30 picks. This is a great year to get two receivers early.

5. The Big Three Tight Ends

As a group, tight ends reached new levels of dominance in 2007. Six topped 125 fantasy points for the first time ever. They weren't just good for their position; they produced like WR2s.

That dominance is showing up in 2008 drafts, although not as dramatically as I imagined. Drafters are taking Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Kellen Winslow in the top-50 picks, but the starting point (pick 42) isn't that high. Three more are taken between picks 60-69. www.clevelandbrowns.ws

Rotoworld agrees with conventional wisdom that the big three at tight end are heads, shoulders, and hands above the rest. It makes sense: the tight ends should go at the back of the quality WR2s. Since position scarcity devalues tight end somewhat, we'd take Santonio Holmes over Witten. We'd rather have one of the big three in round four than anyone else in round six. The gap is large.

6. Great late tight end value

While the big three are tempting, the unprecedented depth at tight end is making later-round values enticing. Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, and Jeremy Shockey are relatively safe every-week plays that often fall out of the first eight rounds! Owen Daniels, Heath Miller, and Tony Scheffler are rising stars that cost even less. Basically we are going early or late with tight end picks this year, not in the middle. With twelve quality starting options at tight end, there is no need to rush.

A fundamental mistake new fantasy players make is failing to understand position scarcity. Each fantasy team only needs one tight end, and there are plenty to go around.

7. Weak class of QB2s

Running back isn't the only position with great uncertainty this year. There are more quarterback battles than usual, and that creates a shaky QB2 class. Matt Leinart has potential in Arizona, but he may not hold off Kurt Warner. Jake Delhomme is a popular bounce back candidate, but no one knows how he'll respond from elbow surgery.

Philip Rivers, Jeff Garcia, Jon Kitna, and Alex Smith are other veterans facing injury or job-related questions. We don't know who will start for the Jets, Ravens, Bears, Falcons, and Dolphins. Throw in untested starters like Trent Edwards, Brodie Croyle, Tarvaris Jackson, and JaMarcus Russell and there is a shortage of passable QB2s. www.oaklandraiders.ws

We see a large drop-off after our 16th-ranked quarterback. That could be Aaron Rodgers or Marc Bulger, depending on how the Brett Favre situation plays out. Either way, grabbing two quarterbacks in the top-16, especially if you skip one of the top five, will serve owners well. This increases the value of players like David Garrard, Vince Young, and Matt Schaub. It's worth reaching for the QB2 you want.

8. Busts: The Year After

Owners are showing a willingness to take out last year's trash. Many of last year's biggest busts are being taken at expensive prices. This includes Larry Johnson, Deuce McAllister, Rudi Johnson, Hines Ward, Lee Evans, Marvin Harrison, Javon Walker, Marc Bulger, and Ahman Green,

Owners must decide how big a rebound they expect on a case-by-case basis. (Our projections will tell you what we think.) For the most part, we don't think these players will rebound as much as the rest of Fantasy Nation. Harrison and Evans are the biggest exceptions.

9. No Rookie Wideouts

31 NFL teams passed on taking a wide receiver in the first round, and fantasy leaguers don't want them in the first 14 rounds. James Hardy is going as the first rookie receiver off the board, at pick 149, but he's not even guaranteed to start on a poor passing attack. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are hurt in Washington. Perhaps a rookie wideout will emerge later in the season, but they aren't worth wasting a pick on.

[Hache Man]

Post-Hype All Stars
When Rotoworld started in 1999, fantasy hype barely existed. There weren't enough websites and magazines, much less television coverage, to create buzz around certain players. Now it's hard to avoid all the hype. One remedy: look for post-hype players.

This is the third annual list of Post-Hype All Stars. They are last year's cool kids. They are sleepers that slipped into comas, but are showing signs of life. I detailed my criteria for Post-Hypeness a few years back. We're targeting four qualities: elite skills, opportunity, and value, with a dose of youth sprinkled in. Established superstars don't make the cut.

The key is value. Take a hard look at why a player didn't live up to expectations. If Fantasy Nation's frustrated perception of the player overly knocks value, then he might be a Post Hype All Star.

Last season's list had some big hits (Ben Roethlisberger, Ronnie Brown, Jason Witten, LenDale White, and Matt Hasselbeck), and it's share of misses (Troy Williamson and Byron Leftwich anyone?). Let's see who makes the cut this season …

Quarterbacks

Vince Young, Titans
www.tennesseetitans.ws
Second-year quarterbacks aren't supposed to get taken as a high level fantasy starter, but Vince Young's rookie season broke all the rules. After crashing down to Earth, he's no longer going in the top 125 picks. His true value lies in the middle, making him an excellent target as a QB2 pick.

No other quarterback will bring the rushing value that Young does. His legs are healthier than last season, and the rushing yards stabilize his weekly output. He only needs modest improvements in the passing game, and new coordinator Mike Heimerdinger's offense plans to go vertical more often. Young has a far higher ceiling than quarterbacks going in front of him like Jake Delhomme and Philip Rivers.

Note:See where Young is ranked in our online draft guide

Matt Leinart, Cardinals
www.arizonacardinals.ws
Rotoworld pegged Leinart as a bust last season, and his lackluster work habits are troubling for a young quarterback. Still, no other late-round pick is throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. After going in the eighth round last year, Leinart is now slipping to the twelth.

No matter what Ken Whisenhunt says, this will be a pass first offense. Leinart doesn't have ideal job security, but he's the perfect QB2 if you draft a top-shelf quarterback. If Leinart lives up to his potential, you can flip him for help at another position.

Honorable Mention:Alex Smith

Running Backs

Reggie Bush, Saints

The poster boy for Post-Hype, 2008. Frankly, I'm torn about Bush. I have seen very little watching almost all of his games to indicate he's a special talent. With that said, he's put up useful production, especially in points per reception (PPR) leagues because he gets the ball so much. He is certainly motivated to get his career on track and worked out with the team far more this summer.

Even the ADP data can't agree on Bush. Some indicate he's going in the late second round, some say the late third. He was a consensus top-ten pick last season. He won't live up to that while splitting carries, but Bush's anti-hype should work in his favor. PPR owners should not overlook him in the second round.

Note: Bush is an intriguing pick in the scoring system used by The NBC Sports Fantasy Championship. Can you take home the $100,000

Brandon Jacobs, Giants
www.newyorkgiants.ws
Yes, much of Jacobs' hype last season was coming from Rotoworld. And yes, we received many an angry emails when Jacobs left a game early. But look beneath the numbers and you'll find that Jacobs was a difference maker, despite the injuries.

In our second magazine, Matt Ball used a stat called "Stud Factor" to determine what players provided consistent advantages for owners. Jacobs only played 11 games, but he finished among the top 32 backs in all eleven. He cracked the top ten backs in six of those games. Jacobs is slipping to the end of the third round in most drafts, but he still has the biggest top-five potential among the RB2 group.

Brandon Jackson, Packers
www.greenbaypackers.ws
It's all about expectations. As a potential starter last year, Jackson shrunk under the pressure and was a huge bust. As a handcuff for Ryan Grant owners this season that is often going undrafted, Jackson has plenty of bounce back potential at a cheap price.

Honorable Mention: Frank Gore, Laurence Maroney, Jerious Norwood

Wide Receivers

Lee Evans, Bills
www.buffalobills.ws
2007 was supposed to be the year Lee Evans turned from excellent to elite. Instead he turned into a poor man's Bernard Berrian. While his third round grade from last season looks wildly optimistic in hindsight, his chances for a rebound look strong. Trent Edwards showed signs of being a capable starter, and should improve in year two. Evans also gets tasty non-conference matchups against the NFC West. That makes his current sixth-round ADP a fine value.

Mark Clayton, Ravens
www.baltimoreravens.ws
Clayton's third year "leap" was off a cliff. He was taken in the seventh round based on a strong sophomore season, but got buried in an avalanche of hamstring injuries and six-yard passes to Derrick Mason. The quarterback situation remains murky, lowering Clayton's ceiling, but he's very talented for a player who is going in the fourteenth round.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Here's what I wrote in our sleeper list in the draft guide: Now that he's off most sleeper lists, Jackson is ready to emerge. If Antonio Gates struggles whatsoever, Jackson will pick up the catches over the middle, like he did during the three playoff games that totaled 300 yards and three scores.

Jackson is going more than 30 spots later than he did a year ago, but now has important experience as a starter in Norv Turner's system.

Drew Bennett, Rams

For some reason, owners expected big production from Bennett when he was the third receiver in St. Louis. Now they expect virtually no production when he's a starter that will see lots of targets. The truth, as usual, is in the middle. So is the fantasy value.

Reggie Brown, Eagles

Going into last season, Brown was taken in the fifth round, while teammate Kevin Curtis went in the tenth. Now the two have completely flip-flopped. Brown won't ever be a consistent WR2 in fantasy leagues, but he's talented enough to out-produce his ADP. The Eagles passing attack improved as last season wore on, and should improve in the red zone. If history is any indication, Philly's production at receiver will balance out.

Honorable Mention: D.J. Hackett, Brandon Jones, Patrick Crayton

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis, 49ers

Davis defines hype: His insane combine numbers and scary Under Armour commercials sent fans into a frenzy. While it's clear Davis reads some of his own clippings, perhaps at the expense of his playbook, Fantasy Nation has cooled on the kid. He's going nearly 20 spots lower in drafts than last year despite getting Mike Martz on his side. This team will throw more often and with more success, however relative. Davis should finally be worth his draft slot.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
It was hard to find many post-hype candidates at tight end because so few are coming off disappointing seasons. Ben Watson fits the qualifications, but we don't believe he'll ever be a consistent option. Marcedes Lewis has a better shot. He's worth more in PPR leagues because he doesn't make plays after the catch, but he could grab 60 passes as a waiver pickup.

[Hache Man]

From Green Bay to Gang Green
Some people consider Brett Favre the greatest quarterback in NFL history. But he's no longer even the best fantasy quarterback that plays in his home stadium. Favre should help the Jets' playoff-ready roster win, but fantasy owners expecting Favre to put up top-10 quarterback numbers will be disappointed. Favre is turning 39 years old in October, and the decline that we saw between 2005-2006 is likely to show up again in Gotham.

Let's look at all the differences between Green Bay and New York to see why his numbers should decline.

System

This is the biggest reason. Favre has played in a West Coast style offense since he worked under Mike Holmgren. Now he must learn Brian Schottenheimer's versatile and complex scheme over the next four weeks. The Jets have been a run-heavy team the last two years. ProFootball Prospectus points out that they were the third slowest paced offense in the league last season. The Jets will get more aggressive by tailoring the offense to Favre's skills, but the offensive line is still built to maul with Alan Faneca, not pass protect. The Jets will be more balanced than the Packers.

Favre propped up his stats in 2005-2006 by leading the league in pass attempts both seasons. That will not happen in New York, who won't get as pass-wacky as Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.

To see where Favre ranks on Rotoworld's Top 200, check out our online draft guide.

Talent

Favre has a terrific of starting receivers in New York with Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. My projections for both Jets receivers were already optimistic, and they will inch up with the arrival of Favre. Cotchery is like a tougher Greg Jennings, and Favre should help allow him to make great plays after the catch. He's a sneaky mid-round WR2 pick, and Coles isn't far behind. There are some concerns about his Coles' nagging injuries, but he's only 31 and caught at least 70 passes for five straight seasons before last year. www.newyorkjets.ws

Despite the solid starters, the Jets receiver crew is still a downgrade from Green Bay. Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson comprise one of the deepest receiver groups in the league. The Jets have no depth: Chansi Stuckey, with zero career receptions, is their third receiver. The tight end groups on both are both solid, but a wash. (Chris Baker and Dustin Keller should see their numbers rise in New York, but may cancel each other out in fantasy leagues.)

I'd still take the Packers offensive line over the Jets. Continuity is one of the keys to building a great line, and the Jets are trying to make their line with pricey free agent signings. That usually doesn't work, and the right side of New York's line looks especially shaky.

Time

Favre doesn't have much time to learn the Jets' system and get to know his teammates' strengths and weaknesses. He is running out of time to get into football shape after missing an entire offseason. And, of course, there is Father Time. Favre's magical season at 38 was truly rare, but repeating those excellent numbers on a new team at 39 is unheard of.

Where Favre Ranks

I sprinkled some magic Favre dust on his new projections available in our online draft, and he still only came out as the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback. The Jets were given more pass attempts than years past. Favre's yards-per-attempt and touchdown numbers were made closer to his career norms, rather than the ugly numbers he put up between 2005-2006. It all added up to 3,605 yards, 23 scores, and eighteen touchdowns. That was good enough to rank him right below Marc Bulger, and one spot ahead of old friend Aaron Rodgers. Expect Favre to get taken earlier than that in most drafts, and don't expect many Rotoworld loyalists to own him. www.greenbaypackers.ws

Before taking the plunge on Favre, remember what your thoughts about him in your draft room last year. Remember the 38 touchdowns to 47 interceptions he threw in the two years prior. Finally, remember that this isn't baseball, where you can change teams and expect similar statistics. Changing teams in the NFL is hard at any age, even for a legend. No amount of fawning media coverage about Favre playing the game like a kid will change that.

[Hache Man]

Running with the Ones
This was depth chart week in the NFL. Though many teams ranked players in order of seniority (and in some cases even alphabetically), coaching staffs at least gave us a small glimpse of what they're thinking. Some surprises included Ronald Curry and Drew Carter as "co-starters" in Oakland, Eddie Royal as Denver's direct backup for Brandon Marshall, and Jackie Battle ahead of Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles at tailback in Kansas City. kansascitychiefs.ws

For roughly the next month (the season opens on Thursday, September 4 when the Giants host the Redskins), I'll update key skill position battles around the league. Gregg Rosenthal already previewed 50. His top 20 can be found here. Camp battle previews 21-50 are here.

Now we examine 12 key competitions that have begun to take shape, but still must be tracked over the next four weeks.

Giants No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns
www.newyorkgiants.ws
If you've bought and read the 2008 Rotoworld Draft Guide, you already know the Giants face the toughest schedule for running backs in the league. With a committee potentially on the horizon, any one back here could struggle to maintain consistent week-to-week production. But the Giants will score touchdowns because their offense is explosive and Steve Spagnuolo's pressure-heavy defense will keep chances coming. The top three backs have shared first-team reps so far in camp and the Giants say they'll ride the "hot hand," but Jacobs is their best early-down option because at 6'4/264 with unusual speed, he is capable of pounding defenses before the shiftier, quicker Bradshaw capitalizes as a change of pace. Ward is a poor man's Jacobs with better hands, but has a role waiting if injuries strike. Droughns could be cut.

Current Leader: None
Projected Week 1 Winner: Brandon Jacobs

Bears No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Matt Forte/Kevin Jones/Adrian Peterson/Garrett Wolfe
www.minnesotavikings.ws
Lovie Smith is an old school coach who always requires rookies to earn their jobs, but he's made an exception with Forte. Chicago listed its second-round draft choice first on the initial training camp depth chart, proving just how impressive Forte has been. Jones (knee) has yet to practice since joining the club on a contract for the minimum, leaving Peterson as Forte's primary backup and Wolfe third string. Jones may start the season on PUP, which would cost him the first six games and make him undraftable in 12-team leagues. Forte has emerged as the clear frontrunner without a viable handcuff. He should lead all rookies in carries this season.

Current Leader: Matt Forte
Projected Week 1 Winner: Matt Forte

Lions No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Tatum Bell/Kevin Smith/Brian Calhoun
www.detroitlions.ws
It hasn't been reported much, but Bell missed a sizable chunk of OTAs and early training camp for "personal reasons." He's present now and running with the starters, but Smith has also seen first-team action and appears to be nipping at Bell's heels. While he isn't a good bet to hold up after taking 450 carries in 14 games as a college junior, Smith is already ahead of Calhoun and figures to be heavily involved early in the year, even if Bell takes the field first. Calhoun is a third-stringer at the moment, but the best natural pass catcher of the three with the most special teams experience. He's likely headed for the passing-down role with a Smith-Calhoun committee possible by midseason, assuming either is still healthy by then.

Current Leader: Tatum Bell
Projected Week 1 Winner: Kevin Smith

Broncos No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: Keary Colbert/Darrell Jackson/Eddie Royal

Keep in mind that this could actually be the Broncos' No. 1 receiver while Brandon Marshall is suspended, although TE Tony Scheffler should be the main beneficiary of Marshall's absence. Jackson currently tops the depth chart, with Colbert behind him and Royal second at Marshall's position. If the season began today, Royal and Jackson would probably comprise the first team with Brandon Stokley in the slot. Colbert is the best run blocker of the group and could rotate in outside, but his inability to get open will likely hurt him when the final depth chart is set and playing time is decided.

Current Leader: Darrell Jackson
Projected Week 1 Winner: Darrell Jackson

Bears No. 1 Receiver
Competitors: Devin Hester/Marty Booker/Brandon Lloyd/Earl Bennett

We'd bet on Greg Olsen finishing as Chicago's leading receiver, but the favorite here by the end of camp will be worth a flier. Mark Bradley would've been our pick had he stayed healthy, but Bradley has been limping on the practice field and running third string after May knee surgery. He's in danger of missing the cut. While the Bears put "co-starters" at each receiver position on their preliminary depth chart, Hester and Lloyd are the favorites to start in Week 1. The Bears may use a timeshare either way, but Booker runs the best routes and has the best recent production, so we'd bet on him seeing the most targets on opening day, even if it's from the slot.

Current Leader: Devin Hester/Brandon Lloyd
Projected Week 1 Winner: Marty Booker



Broncos No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Michael Pittman/Andre Hall/Ryan Torain/Anthony Alridge

With Pittman switched to fullback, a path was cleared for Torain to grab the second spot behind Selvin Young and perhaps make a run at the starting job. But a broken elbow will shelve him for at least the first two weeks of the regular season. The results of an MRI could reveal even more damage and force Denver to place Torain on season-ending injured reserve. Pittman has returned to tailback, but Hall stands second on the depth chart and Alridge, a speedy scatback who surprisingly went undrafted after a nice senior season at Houston, is threatening for spot duty. Like Mike Bell last year, Pittman didn't show enough as a ball carrier for Mike Shanahan to want him there originally, so don't count on him having a big role. It's Hall's job to lose and Alridge's to win. Expect in-season change, but Hall to be second when the season opens.

Current Leader: Andre Hall
Projected Week 1 Winner: Andre Hall

Bengals No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Kenny Watson/Chris Perry/DeDe Dorsey

Watson missed much of the spring with an undisclosed injury, but he's back and virtually entrenched as Rudi Johnson's backup. After a lost season, Johnson is again experiencing hamstring woes and has an uncertain return. Perry should be healthy by now, but he's been durable enough to carry the ball just 73 times in his four-year career and probably won't stay that way. Dorsey is the most explosive runner in this backfield, but just returned from injury himself. He and Perry may be in direct competition for a roster spot. While Perry figures to hang around if he doesn't break down this preseason, he can't do what Watson did in 2007; shoulder a heavy weekly workload. Look for Watson to open the season as Rudi's complement and the Bengals' third-down back, and make several starts during the year.

Current Leader: Kenny Watson
Projected Week 1 Winner: Kenny Watson

Dolphins No. 1 Quarterback
Competitors: Josh McCown/John Beck/Chad Henne

McCown topped what coach Tony Sparano admitted was a seniority-based opening depth chart and has predictably been inconsistent in camp. While his numerous career starts are something of an advantage, McCown just isn't starting-caliber and Miami is rebuilding. If Beck had done anything to justify it in practice, he'd be the favorite to start in Week 1. But he's been the worst of all three, and with Henne gaining steam, the battle is wide open. Henne generally isn't even a great practice player, but if he keeps up his poise in preseason games, the Dolphins probably won't delay his rise. Their line is big with potential, Henne held up to a ton of hits at Michigan, and he has the biggest arm to connect with speedy wideouts Derek Hagan and Ted Ginn Jr.

Current Leader: Josh McCown
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chad Henne

Jets No. 1 Tight End
Competitors: Chris Baker/Dustin Keller/Bubba Franks

Franks is dropping balls in practice left and right and hasn't been much more than a blocker in years. Old pal Brett Favre's addition may help his chances of making the club, but Franks isn't a true threat to start. Baker was listed atop the Jets' first depth chart, though it may have been in alphabetical order, as Franks was second, Keller was third, and Jason Pociask was behind them. Despite Baker's contract dispute and Keller's impressive camp, Baker will likely be the Jets' starter because he can block and catch. At 6'2/239, Keller might be able to pick up a blitzing free safety or corner, but he won't move any linemen. Keller will play from the slot when coordinator Brian Schottenheimer runs his spread looks, but he will not be a starter as a rookie.

Current Leader: Chris Baker
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chris Baker

Chiefs No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: Devard Darling/Will Franklin/Jeff Webb/Maurice Price

Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe are really Kansas City's top two receivers, but the winner here could wind up with a solid number of deep threat targets. Webb is the most established, but the Chiefs realize his ceiling is the lowest and don't want him as more than a fourth option. Franklin and Price are vying for third receiver/slot duties at the moment, with Franklin leading. Franklin is the ideal outside complement to Bowe because he can burn, a skill that wouldn't be capitalized on as an inside receiver. Darling can run too, but he's been in the league five years and has 18 career catches. At some point, it's time to give up on a guy who couldn't beat out Randy Hymes, Travis Taylor, or Clarence Moore for years in a perennially bad Ravens offense.

Current Leader: Devard Darling
Projected Week 1 Winner: Will Franklin

Chargers No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Jacob Hester/Darren Sproles/Marcus Thomas

With LaDainian Tomlinson nearing 30 (29 in June), this position may finally matter. It never did when Michael Turner was backing up because LT has missed one game in his seven-year career, in 2004 when Jesse Chatman was second on the depth chart. Hester holds that distinction now, but he's more of a utilityman whose game doesn't stand out in any area. The sleeper is Thomas, a power back and adept pass catcher. Sproles is likely to be third on the depth chart and play special teams, but act as a pace change if Tomlinson gets injured. Thomas still needs a monster preseason, and draft status is working against him, but he might prove the best option to carry the load if needed. LT owners should watch this battle during exhibition season.

Current Leader: Jacob Hester
Projected Week 1 Winner: Jacob Hester

[Hache Man]

Moving Day

I've written many times not to overrate the preseason. But we can still look for winners and losers when game performances lead to regular season playing time. I'm still mostly concerned with position battles and injuries. I'll also include some fantasy movers and losers from other league news.

Moving Up

Ricky Williams & Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: Great weekend for both Miami backs. The acquisition of Chad Pennington should help make the Miami passing game competent, leading to longer drives and more scores. Pennington is also fond of the dump-off pass. While Pennington remains a weak fantasy bet, he is an upgrade in Miami. www.miamidolphins.ws

Brown's return to game action Saturday was also an unqualified success. He rushed for only four yards on three carries, but his recovery from ACL surgery is ahead of schedule. Again, don't get carried away with preseason performance. But Ricky's sharp cuts, improvisational skills, and broken tackles show that he's healthy and ready to go. We like him as a RB4 pick. The Dolphins could split carries early, but don't forsake Ronnie's long-term value.

Editor's Note: See where Ronnie and Ricky are ranked in our online draft guide.

Eddie Royal, Broncos: Royal started the opening preseason game over Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, an impressive leap for the rookie. Is Mike Shanahan trying to motivate Jackson or is Royal a better fit opposite Brandon Marshall? Either way, Royal is currently in a position to put up the best rookie receiver stats in the league. That may only make him a late-round pick, but keep an eye on how this battle goes.

Marvin Harrison, Colts: Three catches, two first downs, and twenty-two yards. Using my Sorgi-to-Manning conversion chart, Harrison would have gained 258 yards if his normal quarterback was behind center. Harrison was tackled hard twice and kept making catches, which is a good sign. Concern about his knee continues to fade, as his value as a WR2 continues to rise. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

(Incidentally, behold the awesome power of the 24-yard Jared Lorenzen scramble about 2:10 in to this video. The Hefty Lefty can move! And he may take Jim Sorgi's job if this keeps up.)

Matt Ryan, Falcons: Playing primarily with first-teamers, Ryan made his case to be the Week 1 starter. That may not be good thing for Roddy White owners. www.atlantafalcons.ws

Felix Jones, Cowboys - Dallas continues to look for some "wow" in their offense. Jones' 19-yard run and 28-yard catch, in which he made plenty of tacklers whiff, should help him get on the field for 10-15 touches a game early in the season.

Chris Johnson, Titans: The fact that Johnson can out-run the Rams' second team without making a cut doesn't really change my view of him. We know he can burn. Quinton Ganther tore off a huge play later in the game, and we're not pegging him as a sleeper. www.tennesseetitans.ws

Johnson's impressive practices, though, is making him hard to ignore. He's winning over the coaching staff. Once you account for his receiving numbers, Johnson could challenge LenDale White for most valuable Titans running back. We're not ranking them that way quite yet, but we will if it looks like Johnson has a chance to start.
Update: It looks like we're headed for a committee.

Philip Rivers, Chargers: Rivers took a sack. He got hit on a deep pass attempt that was called for pass interference. He also led the team to a touchdown on his second series. As ACL recoveries go, Rivers continues to work ahead of schedule. It was a victory just to play at all this weekend. Even though we'd expect inconsistent play early in the year, Rivers will clearly be ready to go in Week 1. www.sandiegochargers.ws

Jacob Hester, Chargers: The burly backup to LT2 dove in for two short touchdowns. His short-yardage role is why he's a better handcuff for Tomlinson owners than Darren Sproles. www.sandiegochargers.ws

Rice Rice, Ravens- Baltimore's offensive line threatens to make all the Ravens look terrible, but Rice's role is growing. Willis McGahee will undergo knee surgery Monday. He should be ready for Week 1, but there were already questions about his conditioning level. Rice's strong practices should help him get more a carries than your average third-down back, especially early in the year. Rice is a solid reserve pick. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Robert Meachem, Saints: Last year's first round pick may have emerged as the favorite for the third receiver job in New Orleans after gaining 129 yards against the Arizona backups. Don't get too excited yet though: Lance Moore started in front of him.

Tim Hightower, Cardinals: Peeking his head out from Arizona quagmire as favorite to be Edgerrin James' active backup. www.arizonacardinals.ws

Matt Leinart, Cardinals: So far, so good in quest to hold off Kurt Warner. www.arizonacardinals.ws

Kevin Jones, Bears: Off the PUP list, which means he should be ready to backup Matt Forte before long. Chicago's line could keep all their backs' numbers under wraps, but Jones is a better fantasy pick than the other Adrian Peterson.

Maurice Morris, Seahawks: Mike Holmgren is serious about this jobshare at running back. Morris started the first preseason game; Julius Jones will start the second.

Greg Jones, Jaguars: Remember him? The Pro Bowl fullback, now two years removed from his second ACL surgery, looked strong while backing up Fred Taylor at tailback in Jacksonville. If Taylor or Mo-Jo gets hurt, Jones could vulture a lot of scores. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: We will continue to be careful to overreact to training camp puff pieces, but Williams appears to be carving out more than a third-down role in Carolina. Jonathan Stewart should still prove to be the workhorse over time, but he needs to get some preseason work in. There's a decent chance Williams will open the season as a starter, even if the two are splitting work. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Andre Hall, Broncos: With Ryan Torain out for three months, Hall continues to solidify his role as Selvin Young's backup.

Stuck in Neutral

LaMont Jordan, Patriots: Jordan carried the load to open the preseason, a sign he may be fourth on the depth chart to open camp. The Patriots don't use their key players much in early preseason games. With that said, Jordan showed some late-career Corey Dillon-like slashing running ability. He may be able to run over defenders better than any of his teammates.

Moving Down

Darrell Jackson, Broncos: Jackson has every chance to revive his career in Denver, but Eddie Royal quickly passing him on the depth chart is a bad sign. Jackson could re-take the job by improving this month or by producing when Brandon Marshall is out of the lineup in the first two weeks. But the tie will go to the rookie, and Jackson is looking like a less inspiring late sleeper pick.

Willis McGahee, Ravens: It's better to get a minor surgery out of the way now, but any knee troubles for someone who previously tore his ACL is a concern. Of greater concern: McGahee's weak offensive teammates. The offensive line has huge questions, and the quarterbacks aren't any better. Repeating last season looks like McGahee's upside, making McGahee another third-round RB2 pick, rather than one of the only solid second backs to take in front of elite receivers. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Ahman Green, Texans: No one takes Ahman Green seriously this season as a fantasy asset because he's expected to get hurt. He started to build Houston's confidence with a healthy camp, but it took exactly one preseason snap to hurt his groin. He's expected to miss the next week. While it doesn't appear to be a devastating injury, it's a reminder that Green can't be trusted to hold up for long. Chris Brown hasn't stayed healthy for long either. It's going to be a committee, we just don't know the members yet.

Baltimore quarterbacks: They all made mistakes against New England, although Troy Smith took the biggest step back. He didn't look composed playing against third-teamers, and two possible interceptions were dropped by the Patriots. After a poor couple of practices following Baltimore's game, he needs to improve quickly this week. Smith also made an inspired but ridiculous dive on the sideline for a wayward Patriots pass while watching the action. Baltimore's quarterbacks aren't draft-worthy this season, but all the uncertainty doesn't bode well for Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton.

Tatum Bell, Lions: The Lions want to talk about their new balanced offense, but they need to learn how to run block. Bell was continually hit in the backfield as Detroit's zone scheme didn't identify Giants defenders. Kevin Smith didn't look much better in relief, but he could move up the depth chart soon after Bell rushed for only eight yards on seven carries. It's not a good sign when Drew Stanton leads the team in rushing. www.detroitlions.ws

Alex Smith, 49ers: The J.T. O'Sullivan threat is real. While Shaun Hill is slowly fading away, O'Sullivan practiced with the first team after starting San Francisco's first preseason game. I still consider Smith the favorite to win the job, but the odds are closer to 60-40 now.

Bryant Johnson, 49ers: A hamstring injury will force him to miss San Francisco's first two preseason games. Johnson is still expected to be the 49ers starter in Week 1, but the breakout candidate is missing valuable time.

[Hache Man]

AFC Projected Carries
Some pet peeves:

1. Local Sports announcers who don't know anything about sports.

2. The practice of calling every recently completed sporting event or athlete the best or worst of all time. Example: "Michael Phelps is the greatest athlete of all time in failing to spark a compelling storyline from dogged reporters."

3. People that walk into a subway car before allowing you the chance to walk out of the subway. These people deserve a special circle in hell. Or at least a stray elbow or shoulder.

4. Forced introductions to columns.

This was originally going to the beginning to a list of storylines about the 2008 season that drive me crazy. While that column may come eventually, I can't muster the appropriate Bayless-level of bile on August 13. I'm too thankful for the season being right around the corner. The training camp portion of the preseason is mostly ending this week, people! Let's celebrate with more projected carries, now out of the AFC backfield. If you missed it, I broke down the NFC Tuesday. I'll finish the final eight teams on Thursday, and then wrap up running back week with some Tiers of Heaven on Friday.

Baltimore Ravens
Coach: John Harbaugh| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 380

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will essentially run the offense. He leans towards the run and has helped LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown reach new heights this decade. Look for the running backs to be involved in the passing game.

Willis McGahee: 280
Ray Rice: 100
www.baltimoreravens.ws
These numbers grew closer this week following Willis McGahee's knee surgery. While it was a minor procedure, McGahee's lack of conditioning to start camp is a concern. Can he hold up again? Rice has earned a big role with a great camp, but Baltimore's shaky offensive line is trouble for both players.

See how far McGahee fell in our online draft guide.

Buffalo Bills
Coach: Dick Jauron| Average Rushes/Year: 385
Projected 2008 Carries: 410
www.buffalobills.ws
According to Pro Football Prospectus, the Bills led the league in % of runs when they were trailing in the second half. Dick Jauron will go run-heavy in any situation, and modest improvement in the passing game will help extend drives and rack up carries.

Marshawn Lynch: 310
Fred Jackson: 90
Dwayne Wright: 10

The argument for Marshawn Lynch as a top-seven pick in a nutshell. He is almost as talented as any back in the league, he's young, and he's a good bet to finish in the top-five in carries. The Bills say they will use him more in the passing game. Fred Jackson is the clear backup and a fine handcuff.

Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis| Average Rushes/Year: 398
Projected 2008 Carries: 380

Marvin Lewis wants to run. He has the offensive line and the passing game to make it work, but the backfield remains a mystery. This team should lean pass because that's where the best talent is.

Rudi Johnson: 160
Kenny Watson: 105
Chris Perry: 85
DeDe Dorsey: 30

This may be giving too much credit to Rudi, who has barely taken a hit all camp and doesn't seem likely to stay healthy for long. Perry has more upside than Watson, but can he last 16 weeks? Even if Watson starts the year third on the depth chart, he figures to split work with whoever survives between Perry and Rudi.

Cleveland Browns
Coach: Romeo Crennel| Average Rushes/Year: 355
Projected 2008 Carries: 400
www.clevelandbrowns.ws
The average annual rushes during the Crennel era are low, but he hit 396 carries last season from running backs with a good offense. This is a balanced team.

Jamal Lewis: 280
Jason Wright: 80
Jerome Harrison: 30
Lawrence Vickers: 10

Very little changed in Cleveland, so their 2007 totals didn't change much. Wright enjoyed a solid season as Lewis' backup, and I gave him a few extra carries this year due to the miles on Lewis' leg.

Denver Broncos
Coach: Mike Shanahan| Average Rushes/Year: 433
Projected 2008 Carries: 410

Mike Shanahan wants to run, but will this roster allow it? His backs only had 375 carries last year, but he hit his career average with the unimposing Bell/Bell tag team in 2006. My faith in Jay Cutler boosts the totals of his backs.

Selvin Young: 195
Andre Hall: 95
Michael Pittman: 60
Ryan Torain: 30
Anthony Alridge: 30

If anyone else was coaching this team, we would wonder what the hell they were doing. With Torain out half the season or more, there isn't a true power back available. The most experienced runner, Michael Pittman, is mostly playing fullback. This is Selvin Young's opportunity to be a top-15 fantasy back. He will maintain that pace as long as he's healthy, but there are big concerns about him holding up.

Houston Texans
Coach: Gary Kubiak| Average Rushes/Year: 367
Projected 2008 Carries: 370

Gary Kubiak brought in zone blocking guru Alex Gibbs this off-season. The Texans want to run, and Gibbs' history indicates that they will do it well. Eventually. The talent remains in the passing game, and that's how this team leaned last year. I may have projected more carries here if I knew who to give them too …

Ahman Green: 130
Chris Brown: 110
Steve Slaton: 80
Chris Taylor: 50

Gary Kubiak clearly went to the Shanahan School of throwing backs against the wall to see what sticks. In this scenario, Darius Walker didn't make the team and doesn't have a carry. Other than Slaton, though, no one is guaranteed a job in Houston. Green couldn't last a carry in the preseason before getting hurt. Brown is always hurt, although I think he has the best chance to be a difference maker, if only for a month at a time. Taylor has upside, but may be more of a fullback. This mess is going committee. And if doesn't work, Kubiak has Ron Dayne's number on speed dial. I'm sure he's stayed in good shape.

Indianapolis Colts
Coach: Tony Dungy| Average Rushes/Year: 409
Projected 2008 Carries: 415
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
The modern version of the Colts is very adaptable. They can skew run or pass depending on the season and their personnel. They can throw or run in the red zone, like they did in 2007. The key remains Peyton Manning, who keeps the offense moving and gets his backs the ball when they face favorable defensive fronts.

Joseph Addai: 270
Dominic Rhodes: 85
Mike Hart: 40
Kenton Keith: 20

Is Joseph Addai a workhorse or not? His fade in the second half of last season suggests the Colts will be careful with his workload. This won't be a committee, but the backups will get involved, especially if the Colts are fortunate enough to get big leads. Keith looks like the odd man out, but that could change.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach: Jack Del Rio| Average Rushes/Year: 428
Projected 2008 Carries: 440
www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
This team is better at passing, but that doesn't mean they will do it more often. The Jaguars define smashmouth and have the talent to run like crazy.

Fred Taylor: 205
Maurice Jones-Drew: 185
Greg Jones: 35
Chauncey Washington: 15

Since Drew will get nearly all the receptions and red zone touches, he remains the most valuable Jaguar by far. But he needs Taylor to get hurt or finally start declining to reach his true potential. Otherwise, Mo-Jo will remain an inconsistent week-to-week option.

[Hache Man]

AFC Projected Carries, Part II
We projected carries for the NFC and half the AFC earlier in the week. The final eight AFC teams below will take us home.

Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Herm Edwards| Average Rushes/Year: 415
Projected 2008 Carries: 410
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
No coach consistently runs more and plays a slower-paced brand of football than Herman Edwards. Herm gave his backs 465 carries in 2006, but he had a competent quarterback then. Brodie Croyle changes that.

Larry Johnson: 300
Jamaal Charles: 60
Kolby Smith: 50

Edwards always says he'll get his backups in the mix, but he traditionally runs his starter ragged. L.J. remains an injury risk, lowering his projected carries. His talented backups would likely split carries if he got hurt.

See Larry Johnson's projection and rank in our online draft guide.

Miami Dolphins
Coach: Tony Sparano| Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2008 Carries: 393
www.miamidolphins.ws
This is Sparano's first run as a head coach, but we know he likes to divvy up the work at running back. We also know that Bill Parcells teams play to their strengths, but usually have a heavy dose of power running. This team will try to shorten games by running plenty. That's where the talent is.

Ronnie Brown: 218
Ricky Williams: 130
Jalen Parmele: 45

This should be a relatively even split in September while Brown gets his legs under him. As he builds strength in his knee, he should take over as the primary guy. He's also much better than Ricky in the passing game. Still, you can't expect Brown to set his career high in carries after tearing his ACL. If Ricky can stay healthy, he's going to get plenty of work and be a nice RB4 value.

New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick| Average Rushes/Year: 404
Projected 2008 Carries: 420

The Patriots are a pass-first team, especially in the red zone, but they play to their personnel. With five quality backs and a slow-footed line that may have pass protection issues on the right side, we expect the Patriots to be closer to balanced this season.

Laurence Maroney: 225
LaMont Jordan: 90
Sammy Morris: 60
Kevin Faulk: 30
Heath Evans: 10

Expect the Patriots to change up their usage patterns depending on the opponent. Jordan has less tenure than Morris, but more dynamic skills. This would definitely be a committee if Maroney got hurt, which limits the upside of the New England backups. Jordan and Morris are still worthwhile late-round picks.

New York Jets
Coach: Eric Mangini| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 395
www.newyorkjets.ws
The Jets have been a conservative team under Eric Mangini, but they are similar to the Patriots: flexible enough to change their strategy each week, and season. With Brett Favre in town, they figure to throw more.

Thomas Jones: 275
Leon Washington: 65
Jesse Chatman: 35
Musa Smith: 20

Jones could once again carry the ball 300 times for a cheap price. His backups are better this year, though, so his touches may go down. Look for more scores and increased effectiveness with an improved passing game. Chatman or Smith figure to get cut, so their carries will combine then.

Editor's Note: Jones makes a fine fourth-round pick in PPR leagues like the NBC Sports Fantasy Championship.

Oakland Raiders
Coach: Lane Kiffin| Average Rushes/Year: 441
Projected 2008 Carries: 435
www.oaklandraiders.ws
Lane Kiffin called an incredible amount of running plays last year considering how poor their passing attack was. They were also incredibly effective blockers. They should contend for the league lead in carries again, which bodes well for all their backs.

Darren McFadden: 210
Justin Fargas: 160
Michael Bush: 65

McFadden may start the year behind Fargas, but he's still likely to finish it with more touches. The rookie isn't ready to be a 20-carry-per-game back, though, so don't ignore Fargas when looking for mid-round depth. Bush is the wild card, but he'll need an injury in front of him to truly matter.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin| Average Rushes/Year: 452
Projected 2008 Carries: 420

Mike Tomlin picked up right where Bill Cowher left off – running like crazy. The team has more receiving weapons than ever, and may not be playing with the lead as often. We see them getting closer to balance this year.

Willie Parker: 225
Rashard Mendenhall: 155
Mewelde Moore: 40

I've said it all offseason, but most people smartly don't read me in the offseason: Willie Parker is the new Fred Taylor. He will rely on big plays and lead his team in carries, but won't be on the field during the money downs.

San Diego Chargers
Coach: Norv Turner| Average Rushes/Year: 440
Projected 2008 Carries: 440
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Norv Turner is not shy about working his starting running back hard. There's no reason to think that will change with Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates coming off injury.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 325
Jacob Hester: 70
Darren Sproles: 35
Marcus Thomas: 10

Tomlinson has averaged 338 carries as a starter. He may have reached that total last year, but was able to sit after halftime in the final few weeks of the season. He finished with 315, and the Chargers have enough depth to spell him occasionally. Sproles should do most of his damage on third downs.

Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 415
www.tennesseetitans.ws
In a constantly evolving NFL, it's nice to know we can count on two things from Jeff Fisher, decade after decade: Awesome facial hair and a smashmouth offense. Those trends should continue, especially with another high pick in the backfield and maulers on the line.

LenDale White: 245
Chris Johnson: 145
Chris Henry: 25

With Chris Wesseling leading the way, we have admittedly caught Chris Johnson fever. White was projected for close to 300 carries, but the workload has evened out. Once you factor in receptions, we see White and Johnson having close to the same total yardage. White still remains the heavy favorite, however, to lead the team in carries and touchdowns. We doubt Johnson will be asked to carry the ball 20 times as a rookie. With a nasty offensive line hitting their prime, both backs could excel ala Jacksonville. Both look undervalued.

[Hache Man]

Tiers of Heaven: RBs
Fantasy owners are always asking us at Rotoworld for that one tip; the one sentence that will solve their fantasy football league. It doesn't exist.

The best advice we have is to know more than the owner next to you, have a system of evaluating players, and to be flexible within that system. Every season, every draft, every choice is different. The owner that is flexible enough to look for value at each pick will win over the long run.

We believe creating tiers at each position. to maximize value is the best system. (And if you know our tiering system well, skip to the fun below.) Cheats sheets are great, but don't always see the big picture. Tiers can help when you have a difficult choice like taking your starting tight end in the sixth round or continuing to build depth at receiver.

Let's say Chris Cooley was near the top of your Top 200 board, and you still have a hole at tight end. It looks like a no brainer. Looking at your tiers, however, you notice that many other tight ends from his tier including Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap are still available.

You check your wide receiver tiers and notice that Lee Evans is the last wideout standing from your third tier. You don't necessarily need another wide receiver, but there is a huge projected drop-off after Evans. Taking him maximizes value. There is almost certain to be a similarly valued tight end to Cooley available with your next pick. Evans is the choice.

The 2008 Running Back Tiers are below. Our Draft Guide Subscribers have had access to the constantly evolving tiers at each position since June. They will get all the important updates to over 500 profiles, projections, rankings, and tiers in the buildup to draft day. They can customize their cheat sheets to fit their individual scoring system. The only thing we can guarantee is that value changes every day, so consider this the running back snapshot for August 15, 2008.

Tiers of Heaven: Running Backs

You are going to hear a lot this preseason that it's a down year for running backs because of all the committees. While there is certainly more uncertainty after the top-ten than usual, it's more accurate to say that last year was a down year for running backs. That is mostly reflected in our Top-200 rankings, where we recommend taking most WR1s over second running backs.

Just don't get carried away. Because of position scarcity, nabbing three quality running backs is still a must for any owner with designs on a title. You just may be able to grab those starters a round or two later than usual. Quality players will fall to the fifth and sixth round.

Note: These players are ranked in standard non-PPR scoring.

Tier One: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson
www.sandiegochargers.ws
Peterson's collapse in December made this decision easier, but not a cinch. Peterson is a singular talent. Drafting him is drafting a 10% chance at a historic season. He still has a lot of room for improvement, which is scary. LT2 is still the best, but he's not going to reach his 2006 dominance again.

Tier Two: Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore
www.indianapoliscolts.ws
We'd take all these backs before any quarterback or receiver. Westbrook is likely to see fewer touches this season, but remains the best pass-catching back. Jackson performed as expected after his injury last season despite a terrible team. The offensive line has to get better. We're not worried about Jackson's holdout yet. Addai is the safest bet for 12+ scores other than LT2, but probably won't reach 300 carries. Gore's talent and the addition of Mike Martz will make him a great value if he falls.

Note:See how far Westbrook and Gore climb in our PPR rankings.

Tier Three: Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Ryan Grant
www.washingtonredskins.ws
The end of the true RB1s. This is a season with very few sure things at the position. Lynch is clear of any legal problems and is entering his prime. No one breaks more tackles. Other than Barber, we see 300 carries from the other backs in this tier. Barber makes it up with touchdowns and receptions. It would be nice to see Grant get back on the practice field. Even though the top wideouts are safer picks, we'd still grab these RB1s before most of them.

Tier Four: Maurice Jones-Drew, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Jonathan Stewart, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Drafts will be won and lost this season at the RB2 position. Mo-Jo needs Fred Taylor to get hurt to realize his full potential. Larry Johnson may be healthier, but he was struggling badly on the Chiefs before getting hurt next year. He won't look like the old L.J. until Will Shields and Willie Roaf un-retire. McGahee was very steady last season, but his offensive line is worse and he's coming off a mid-August surgery. Ronnie Brown is a top-five talent, but has yet to top 300 touches and is coming off a torn ACL. Jacobs, Bush, and Maroney could be buy-low candidates on explosive offenses, but they have to worry about carries. Jacobs has the highest ceiling of any back here if he stays healthy. Stewart is an intriguing all-down bruiser who could be a great value as a rookie like Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch last season. He may not open the year carrying the load, but he'll finish it that way.

We see more boom-or-busts in this group than ever. Taking a second-round wide receiver makes a lot of sense this year ahead of most of these guys. You can limit your risk and maximize value by taking this group in round three. Two backs from the top four tiers starts off your running back group with strength.

Willis McGahee took a hit in our most recent draft guide rankings.

Tier Five: Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, Earnest Graham, Selvin Young
www.oaklandraiders.ws
The last of the legitimate RB2s. McFadden may not last long, but the other four could fall into the fourth and fifth round. Jones isn't flashy, but he could give you 300 cheap carries. Jones is a safe bet to score more. Turner is a great talent, but is stuck in a nearly impossible situation. Earnest Graham is unlikely to carry the load as much as last year. Selvin Young is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick, but he'll be a difference maker while healthy. If you don't have a RB2 before this tier, make sure to get one.

Win $100K using these tiers at the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship. I'll see all of you in NY.

Tier Six: LenDale White, Matt Forte, Edgerrin James, Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor, Chris Johnson
www.arizonacardinals.ws
The best of the committee backs and RB3s. White faces a challenge from Chris Johnson, but still should lead a smashmouth team with a great line in carries. He can still crack 1,000 yards and 8-10 scores. He's a safer pick than Johnson in this format, but Johnson should get the ball enough to be an intriguing fantasy reserve. Forte has a decent chance to lead all rookie runners in carries, but the Bears offense is a concern. Parker is going to lose work to Mendenhall, and now profiles like a younger Fred Taylor, needing a big play every week. Chester Taylor has stand-alone value, but Adrian Peterson owners should reach a round early for him. Julius Jones is set up for a rebound in Seattle, but has looked like an average talent. He will probably start the year splitting carries.

We look at RB3s as a starter, whether you use a flex position or not. You will need to use them over the course of the season. These are the best of the bunch and are worth mid-round grades.

Note: Check out the Fantasy Fix running back preview, with analysis, rankings, Ms. Tiffany Simons, and some other dude.

Tier Seven: DeAngelo Williams, Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Fargas, Rudi Johnson, Kevin Smith
www.detroitlions.ws
Shaky starters, promising backups, and some players in between. The situations in Cincy, Carolina, and Detroit remain up from grabs. Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson are the favorites, but are no locks to keep their jobs. Committees look likely. DeAngelo Williams may open the year as a starter in Carolina, but probably won't play in the red zone and is likely to lose his job. Bradshaw could be the most dynamic committee back in the league. Fargas was a perfect fit for Oakland's scheme and may be ignored in drafts this year. Felix Jones is a dynamic third-down back at worst.

RB4s are ultimately reserves, so be careful of reaching too early for risky picks. They should start going off the board halfway through a 12-team draft. Pick a player or two that you feel is undervalued to build your depth. Ideally, you'd draft four backs from the first seven tiers.

Tier Eight: Ricky Williams, Maurice Morris, Kenny Watson, Pierre Thomas, Jerious Norwood, Ray Rice, Chris Brown, Ahman Green
www.miamidolphins.ws
For the most part, these are high upside backups and third-down backs. Rice has earned a big role in Baltimore with an impressive rookie off-season. He could play more early with Willis McGahee banged up. Ricky Williams could split carries in Miami to open the year and looks fresh. He'll give way during the season to Ronnie Brown. Morris should start the year splitting work in Seattle, but we've seen what he can do as a starter. He's only useful as fantasy depth. Green and Brown make a colorfully injury-prone tandem in Houston that we'll let someone else draft. Thomas has extra value as a backup on a high-octane offense. Norwood continues to be limited by his situation in Atlanta, but he's very talented.

Tier Nine: Fred Jackson, Ladell Betts, Warrick Dunn, LaMont Jordan, Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, Dominic Rhodes, Chris Perry, Andre Hall, Steve Slaton, Leon Washington, Derrick Ward, Jason Wright, Brandon Jackson
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
The best of the remaining draftable players and handcuffs to attach to your starters. Of this group, Perry, Kevin Jones, and Jordan have the most potential to emerge with a bigger role. Past performance wouldn't indicate that is likely, though. Perry will climb a tier if this weekend goes well. Hall and Rhodes are intriguing because they are an injury away on explosive offenses.

Tier Ten: Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, Tim Hightower, Correll Buckhalter, Deuce McAllister, Lorenzo Booker, Jacob Hester, Sammy Morris, Michael Pittman, DeShaun Foster, Kolby Smith, Adrian Peterson (CHI), Sammy Morris, Brian Calhoun, Kevin Faulk
www.minnesotavikings.ws
Mostly reserves here with questionable roles, but they are all on the fantasy radar. McAllister has the chance for a big role, but any success would be going against all medical precedent after duel ACL and microfracture surgeries in the off-season. Watch our news closely to see what develops with all the borderline cases.

Note: In case you hadn't heard eight other times in this column, you can head to our draft guide for tiers at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, defense, and even kicker! We also have dynasty tiers, over 500 profiles, cheat sheets, and much more. This is our big time of year, so thanks to everyone that supports our year-round coverage.