NFL Fantasy Football News 2008

[Hache Man]

Second Year Eruption
This is a Daily Dose about position battles, but I wanted to start off by pointing out how smoking hot Calvin Johnson is through two preseason weeks. We already know last year's No. 2 overall pick possesses the tools necessary to dominate. Now, he's doing it.

Johnson's rookie year was slightly disappointing. He battled a season-long back injury and there were rumblings his grasp of then-coordinator Mike Martz's playbook was incomplete. But despite playing at significantly less than 100 percent, Johnson averaged 15.4 yards per catch, good for eighth in the NFL among receivers who caught 40 or more balls.

Johnson has played a total of four preseason series, all in the first quarter against starting secondaries. Detroit faced fundamentally sound Giants CBs Aaron Ross and Corey Webster in the exhibition opener and up-and-coming Bengals duo Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph in Sunday night's contest. In those four series, Johnson is averaging 22.0 YPC on seven grabs, including Sunday's 27-yard touchdown. That came after Joseph smacked Johnson in the face at the line of scrimmage to draw an illegal contact flag. The penalty was declined.

Besides his return to health and eye-popping early preseason performance, there is much to like about Johnson's situation this year.

1. The Lions traded away their best defender in the offseason, dealing NT Shaun Rogers for a draft pick and inconsistent cornerback Leigh Bodden. Bodden hasn't even cracked the starting lineup yet. Rogers has looked unstoppable in Cleveland. The Lions replaced him with 33-year-old journeyman Chartric Darby, who's 6'0/297 to Rogers' 6'4/370. Darby is also coming off a torn patellar tendon. Ranked dead last in the NFL last year and now even worse on paper, the Lions' defense is going to be dreadful again. No matter what new offensive boss Jim Colletto promises, this team will have to throw to stay in games. www.detroitlions.ws

2. Detroit's running game is struggling badly in its conversion to a zone-blocking system. As a team, the Lions are averaging 3.0 yards per carry, which ranks second worst in the league through two preseason weeks. And while preseason stats are often meaningless, there's little room for optimism considering their lack of backfield talent. The Lions' offensive strengths are their wideouts and capable quarterback.

3. Playbook concerns are a thing of the past with Martz's intricacies gone to San Francisco and Colletto's more basic version of the same scheme installed. The Lions will go heavy on two-receiver sets and Johnson's targets will skyrocket.

4. Johnson is locked in as a starter. Shaun McDonald, who's still rehabbing after offseason knee surgery, started opposite Roy Williams throughout last season. A "Martz guy," McDonald is now strictly a slot receiver playing in an offense that won't go three wide. Johnson will be an every-down player.

5. Calvin Johnson is a physical freak, lest we not forget. His hands are the size of Babe Ruth-era baseball gloves, he is ideally built at 6'5/237, can jump through the roof, and runs like a deer (4.35 forty at the 2007 Combine). Good luck to any cornerbacks trying to jam this guy. Johnathan Joseph won't make that mistake again.

While you consider pre-draft ranking Johnson among your top 15 receivers after reading this intro and envision young Calvin erupting like Mount Vesuvius on a weekly basis, here are some updates on position battles around the league...

Saints No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: David Patten/Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson

Meachem started the preseason opener in place of Marques Colston and went off, grabbing four balls for 129 yards, including a diving 49-yard bomb and a 60-yard catch and run for a score that involved three broken tackles. The latter play in particular proved Meachem is 100% recovered from the lingering effects of knee surgery that washed out his rookie season. He played behind Devery Henderson in New Orleans' second exhibition and caught only one ball for a gain of 11, but the Saints appear to be clearing a path for Meachem to start. According to their latest depth chart, Meachem is on the same side as Henderson and incumbent David Patten has been moved behind Colston. Henderson is squarely on the roster bubble and battled a bad hamstring all summer. The only reason he's ahead of Meachem now is because of experience. The Saints' third preseason game will be telling, but Meachem looks headed for a first-string role by Week 1.

Current Leader: None
Projected Week 1 Winner: Robert Meachem

Bengals No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson

Rudi's previously pulled hamstring tightened up yet again before the Bengals' second exhibition game Sunday night. Perry got the start and had what looked like a golden opportunity to seize the starting job against a beatable Lions rush defense and behind a healthy Bengals offensive line. He was only mediocre. Perry has looked powerful so far, but not especially quick or explosive. That could bode badly for Johnson, however, because Rudi is a grinder at this stage who doesn't offer anything on passing downs. Watson and Perry both excel in the receiving game. I'm not suggesting it's likely, but Johnson's roster spot could be in doubt depending on what happens against the Saints on Saturday night. Rudi is unreliable and the Bengals don't need him.

Current Leader: None
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chris Perry

Panthers No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams
www.carolinapanthers.ws
Williams' explosive (9-55-2) preseason debut and lasting concern about Stewart's recovery from toe surgery have the first-round pick's Average Draft Position falling rapidly. However, Williams did it against mostly Colts backups, wasn't as great in Thursday's game (8-32-0), and the Panthers were satisfied enough with Stewart's health to play him in Philadelphia. He's been medically cleared and will play more Saturday night against the Redskins. Stewart couldn't reasonably be expected to pass Williams as a "starter" because promoting rookies over vets just isn't John Fox's style, but the power back remains the best bet to lead Carolina in carries this season. Williams isn't a between-the-tackles runner and the Panthers beefed up their offensive line and signed run-blocking wideout Muhsin Muhammad because they want to gash defenses up the middle. We'd limit our expectations for Stewart early in the year, but Williams has very little chance to be more than a pace-changing committee piece by midseason.

Current Leader: DeAngelo Williams
Projected Week 1 Winner: DeAngelo Williams

Cardinals No. 1 Quarterback
Competitors: Matt Leinart/Kurt Warner
www.arizonacardinals.ws
Warner didn't even get into the Cards' exhibition opener, watching as Brian St. Pierre and former Penn State star (if you can call him that) Anthony Morelli mopped up for Leinart. Coach Ken Whisenhunt let Warner play Saturday, but Leinart was better and the scale has been tipped in the southpaw QB's favor after Whiz called it an open competition at the outset of camp. Whisenhunt inserted Warner during red-zone situations last year, but intends to keep Leinart in when Arizona nears the goal line this season because his knowledge of the offense has improved. Though Warner might be the better option currently -- and a potential top-eight fantasy QB if he was the starter -- Leinart has the coaching staff's backing and would have to flounder badly in the last half of August to make it mildly interesting. Leinart's early-season schedule (@ SF, vs. MIA, @ WAS, @ NYJ, vs. BUF) is favorable, so expect him to stay on the safe end of a medium-length leash and be a worthwhile QB2 pick late in fantasy drafts.

Current Leader: Matt Leinart
Projected Week 1 Winner: Matt Leinart



Texans No. 1 Tailback
Competitors: Ahman Green/Chris Brown/Chris Taylor/Darius Walker

I didn't include Steve Slaton because he was drafted to add speed to the backfield and assist on third downs, not start, even if he will get first-team carries Friday in Dallas. Houston's ideal option for the lead role would be Green, if he could be effective or stay healthy. He can do neither, as evidenced by consistently poor-to-mediocre play over the last three years and a strained groin suffered on his first preseason touch. Brown can play, but is another pulled muscle waiting to happen. Taylor is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and hasn't moved the ball in the preseason (2.4 YPC on 22 carries). The Texans' running back pecking order is still very much undetermined, and there is growing speculation that Green could be released before final cuts. Marcel Shipp was signed last week and brings short-yardage ability to the mix. We'll know more after Friday's game.

Current Leader: Ahman Green
Projected Week 1 Winner: Chris Brown

Seahawks No. 3 Receiver
Competitors: Courtney Taylor/Ben Obomanu/Logan Payne

Bobby Engram's cracked shoulder will sideline him until at least Week 5, and a return closer to midseason can't be ruled out due to his age (35) and previous battle with Graves disease, a condition that affects the immune system. While he is out, the winner between Taylor and Obomanu will see favorable starts @ BUF (29th in pass defense last year), vs. SF (22nd), and vs. STL (21st). The coaches are clearly in Taylor's corner and he's running with the first team opposite Nate Burleson. Obomanu started Seattle's first preseason game in the slot and could stay there if he doesn't pass Taylor, but still must fend off Payne, who's more of a field stretcher than any of Seattle's wideouts and impressed with four catches for 38 yards in Saturday's exhibition. Taylor is the most physical and runs the best routes of the bunch, making him an ideal fit at flanker. His main obstacle has been nagging injuries, but if Taylor can stay healthy and excel while being peppered with Matt Hasselbeck targets in those first three games, a WR4-caliber season is within reach. This position is fantasy sleeper central.

Current Leader: Courtney Taylor
Projected Week 1 Winner: Courtney Taylor

49ers No. 1 Quarterback
Competitors: Alex Smith/J.T. O'Sullivan/Shaun Hill

Mike Nolan says O'Sullivan is winning this battle despite no history of success in a seven-year career. Since O'Sullivan is coordinator Mike Martz's guy, it's clear that Nolan has ceded control of the offense for now. Martz kicked Hill to the curb, while Smith still lurks on the second team. Martz may think O'Sullivan has starting ability in his offense, but JTO can't continue to turn the ball over and keep the job. He lost a fumble, threw a pick, and directed the offense to zero points in over a quarter of the Niners' preseason opener. In Saturday's exhibition, O'Sullivan did a little better but threw another interception, completed fewer than 50% of his attempts, and made mental mistakes. Our money remains on Smith because he's the smartest quarterback on the roster and has the best arm and athleticism. Perhaps O'Sullivan will open as San Francisco's starter, but recall that Nolan has final say over game-day decisions and if JTO keeps up the sloppiness, Nolan can overrule Martz and make the switch. We'd guess it happens sooner than later, especially if O'Sullivan lays another egg Thursday at Chicago. It definitely doesn't hurt that Nolan is on one of the hotter seats in the league and a lot of his evaluation at season's end will be tied to Smith's development. Or lack thereof.

Current Leader: J.T. O'Sullivan
Projected Week 1 Winner: Alex Smith

Dolphins No. 2 Receiver
Competitors: Ernest Wilford/Derek Hagan/Davone Bess
www.miamidolphins.ws
Miami's preliminary camp depth chart had Wilford starting opposite Ted Ginn Jr., but Hagan's practice play has been too impressive for him to be a backup any longer and he's officially moved up. Hagan hasn't been as outstanding in preseason games, but neither has Wilford and Hagan offers more speed outside. Hagan may finally be coming into his own at age 23 after being a third-round pick in 2006. Wilford is what he is; a red-zone option with possession skills but shaky hands and little vertical ability. Bess, a pure slot guy who led Colt Brennan's Hawaii Rainbows in receiving the past two seasons, is running as a starter in three-receiver sets. That makes Wilford a fourth receiver in essence and undraftable even in the deepest of leagues. Don't look for much to change here in-season. Hagan is nearing the end of his rookie deal and the Dolphins need to find out if he's worth a long-term commitment. Wilford could still come in when Miami needs a blocker out wide.

Current Leader: Derek Hagan
Projected Week 1 Winner: Derek Hagan

Eagles No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Correll Buckhalter/Tony Hunt/Lorenzo Booker/Ryan Moats

While Brian Westbrook rested during Philly's first exhibition, Buckhalter started and Booker ran extensively with the twos and threes. They're both ahead of Hunt and Moats on the depth chart, with the latter two in danger of being goners at final cuts. Hunt helped himself with a 51-yard touchdown in the Birds' second preseason game, but it came against Panthers backups (Carolina also apparently has the slowest third-stringers in the league). Buckhalter has the second spot on lock, although Booker could play more as long as Westbrook is healthy. If Westbrook gets hurt, Buckhalter would take the field first, operating on early downs and near the goal line. Booker would handle kickoff returns and third-down duty, thus leaving Westbrook without a clear fantasy handcuff. In a touchdown-heavy league, Buckhalter is the backup for Westbrook owners to target. In leagues awarding points for receptions or return yards, Booker is the safer choice.

Current Leader: Correll Buckhalter
Projected Week 1 Winner: Correll Buckhalter

Chiefs No. 2 Tailback
Competitors: Kolby Smith/Jamaal Charles/Jackie Battle/Dantrell Savage
www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Odd roster movement is all over the place at Chiefs camp. At linebacker, No. 2 receiver, offensive line, placekicker, and left corner players that wouldn't even make most teams are getting starting opportunities. Time will tell whether that's due to poor personnel evaluation (we're betting it is), but the weirdest of all is behind Larry Johnson. Battle, who went undrafted and was on the street for three months in 2007 before being snapped up by the then-tailback desperate Chiefs, was directly behind L.J. on the initial camp depth chart. Meanwhile, Charles is putting the ball on the ground like he did at Texas and not threatening for playing time. He did not receive one carry in Saturday's exhibition bout with Arizona. Smith should win this job because of his experience, reliability, and respectable skill level, but probably won't have any security despite his solid efforts in relief of Johnson last season. The easiest solution to all this is to not draft Kansas City's starter due to his lost step, embarrassing offensive line, and worse quarterback situation. Then you won't have to handcuff him.

Current Leader: Jackie Battle
Projected Week 1 Winner: Kolby Smith

[Hache Man]

Dancing on the Ceiling
Fantasy leaguers are obsessed with Tremendous Upside Potential. Given the choice between a safe 1,000 yards (Donald Driver) and a riskier player who could get 1,250 (Calvin Johnson), we'll take the risk. We want the potential breakouts, the boom-or-busts. The following rankings should only feed that obsession.

I try to avoid overusing the word "upside", but I probably overuse "high ceiling" just as much. A player with a high ceiling of production has almost limitless potential, like the aforementioned Megatron. A player with a "high floor" like Matt Hasselbeck is a safer option.

The best draft strategy is to mix in steady players with high ceiling picks. The deeper into the draft you go, the more risk you should be willing to take. We're looking for difference makers.

DISCLAIMER: The following position rankings are ranked completely on what players have the highest ceiling. These are not Rotoworld's rankings! Often they aren't even close. (Save the emails, please.) The rankings ignore injury and job security risk. They ignore the boom or bust nature of some players like Lee Evans. They are rankings of every player as if everything went perfect for them this season. (When I say everything going right, I'm not including injuries to teammates. That's assuming too much.)

So who has the highest ceiling? Let's find out. The wideouts, tight ends, and a brand new industry Mock Draft will post Wednesday.


Quarterbacks Highest Ceiling Ranks

1. Tom Brady: 50 touchdowns are the highest ceiling ever.
2. Peyton Manning: 49 used to be. www.indianapoliscolts.ws
3. Tony Romo
4. Drew Brees
5. Carson Palmer: Palmer actually moves down a few spots in this exercise
6. Vince Young: No one else could come close to his rushing potential. He already was a top-five QB5. www.tennesseetitans.ws
7. Derek Anderson: As ifBrady Quinn doesn't exist. www.clevelandbrowns.ws
8. Jay Cutler
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Matt Schaub: Sleeper pick for 4,000 yards
11. Ben Roethlisberger: 2007 was his ceiling; low attempts hurt him.
12. Matt Hasselbeck
13. David Garrard: The definition of a low ceiling and a high floor. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
14. Eli Manning: Similar to Garrard. www.newyorkgiants.ws
15. Aaron Rodgers: With his weapons, more upside than Favre. www.greenbaypackers.ws
16. Brett Favre www.newyorkjets.ws
17. Marc Bulger: More downside than upside at this point, which is sad.
18.Tarvaris Jackson: Don't laugh. While we don't rank him in our top-20, a healthy 19 games with 500 rushing yards from Jackson would be huge.
20. Jon Kitna: Can't argue with the receivers.
21. Matt Leinart: See Kitna. www.arizonacardinals.ws
22. Jake Delhomme www.carolinapanthers.ws
23. J.T. O'Sullivan: It won't happen, but 16 games under Mike Martz would equal a lot of garbage yards.
24. Jason Campbell: Steady growth doesn't equate to excitement in this format. www.washingtonredskins.ws
25. Philip Rivers www.sandiegochargers.ws

Running Backs Highest Ceiling Ranks

1. Adrian Peterson: His ceiling is in the record books. www.minnesotavikings.ws
2. LaDainian Tomlinson: He's already in the record books. www.sandiegochargers.ws
3. Frank Gore: TONS of ifs, but there is an MVP season buried within somewhere
4. Steven Jackson
5. Brian Westbrook: 2007 was the ceiling … and an awesome one.
6. Brandon Jacobs: Has chance to score 15+ times. www.newyorkgiants.ws
7. Marshawn Lynch www.buffalobills.ws
8. Joseph Addai: Highest floor in the league other than Tomlinson. www.indianapoliscolts.ws
9. Marion Barber: Hasn't reached his peak yet
10. Ryan Grant www.greenbaypackers.ws
11. Clinton Portis www.washingtonredskins.ws
12. Larry Johnson: Brodie Croyle and Kansas City's offensive line can only go so right. www.kansascitychiefs.ws
13. Selvin Young: He gets a huge boost in these rankings. He won't stay healthy all season, but he'll be a top-15 talent when he does.
14. Reggie Bush: PPR ceiling is in the top-five.
15. Jamal Lewis www.clevelandbrowns.ws
16. Laurence Maroney: Probably never going to be a 300-carry type, but touchdown potential is up there.
17. Jonathan Stewart: Still a three-down power back with potential to dominate touches. www.carolinapanthers.ws
18. Maurice Jones-Drew: Needs Fred Taylor to get hurt to realize potential, which we can't here. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
19. Darren McFadden: Boom or busty pick with excellent skills, but committee dims his potential. www.oaklandraiders.ws
20. Willis McGahee: Ray Rice is draining his TUP. www.baltimoreravens.ws
21. Ronnie Brown: It looks ugly now, but there is still a lot of talent there and it's a long season. www.miamidolphins.ws
22. Michael Turner: His long running plays could help make up for Atlanta's offense. www.atlantafalcons.ws
23. Matt Forte
24. Earnest Graham www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
25. Willie Parker
26. Thomas Jones: A classic high floor, low ceiling player.
27. Rudi Johnson: Boom or bust and we're heavily leaning towards bust.
28. Kevin Smith: I don't rank him nearly this high or trust him, but the opportunity is there. www.detroitlions.ws
29. LenDale White: Could score plenty behind an underrated line, but Chris Johnson lowers his ceiling. www.tennesseetitans.ws
30. Chris Johnson: Ceiling is Reggie Bush's rookie year, with a better yards-per-carry.

[Hache Man]

Looking for value late
Rounds nine-through-16 of a recent PPR industry draft.

Round Nine

9.01. Anthony Gonzalez
9.02. Sidney Rice
9.03. Minnesota Vikings DEF
9.04. Justin Fargas www.oaklandraiders.ws
9.05. Chris Perry
9.06. Tony Scheffler
9.07. Chris Brown
9.08. Ray Rice www.baltimoreravens.ws
9.09. Devin Hester
9.10. Brett Favre www.newyorkjets.ws
9.11. Rotoworld: Vince Young www.tennesseetitans.ws
9.12. Owen Daniels

Round Ten

10.01. Seattle Seahawks DEF
10.02. Rotoworld: Patrick Crayton
10.03. Pierre Thomas
10.04. San Diego Chargers DEF
10.05. D.J. Hackett
10.06. Donte' Stallworth
10.07. Matt Leinart www.arizonacardinals.ws
10.08. New England Patriots DEF
10.09. Vernon Davis
10.10. Maurice Morris
10.11. Jake Delhomme www.carolinapanthers.ws
10.12. Reggie Brown

Round Eleven

11.01. Ahman Green
11.02. Jerious Norwood
11.03. Jon Kitna
11.04. Ahmad Bradshaw
11.05. Antonio Pittman
11.06. James Hardy
11.07. Dallas Cowboys DEF
11.08. Heath Miller
11.09. Aaron Rodgers
11.10. Steve Slaton
11.11. Rotoworld: Andre Hall
11.12. Jabar Gaffney

Round Twelve

12.01. Fred Jackson
12.02. Rotoworld: Ronald Curry
12.03. Deuce McAllister
12.04. Todd Heap
12.05. Kevin Walter
12.06. Kenny Watson
12.07. Ben Watson
12.08. Bobby Engram
12.09. Tim Hightower
12.10. Zach Miller
12.11. Sammy Morris
12.12. Isaac Bruce

Round Thirteen

13.01. Chicago Bears DEF
13.02. Robert Meachem
13.03. Jerry Porter
13.04. Reggie Williams
13.05. Philip Rivers
13.06. Ladell Betts
13.07. Deshaun Foster
13.08. Kurt Warner
13.09. Mark Clayton
13.10. Bryant Johnson
13.11. Rotoworld: Brandon Jackson
13.12. Justin Gage

Round Fourteen

14.01. Jason Cambpell
14.02. Rotoworld: Drew Bennett
14.03. Green Bay Packers DEF
14.04. Alge Crumpler
14.05. Deion Branch
14.06. Kevin Jones
14.07. Eddie Royal
14.08. L.J. Smith
14.09. Greg Olsen
14.10. Lorenzo Booker
14.11. Ben Utecht
14.12. Leon Washington

Round Fifteen

15.01. Devin Thomas
15.02. Michael Bush
15.03. Marty Booker
15.04. Chris Henry (CIN)
15.05. Amani Toomer
15.06. Trent Edwards
15.07. DeSean Jackson
15.08. Dominic Rhodes
15.09. Nick Folk
15.10. Muhsin Muhammed
15.11. Rotoworld: Derrick Ward
15.12. Ryan Longwell

Round Sixteen

16.01. David Patten
16.02. Rotoworld: Courtney Taylor
16.03. Randy McMichael
16.04. New York Giants DEF
16.05. Indianapolis Colts DEF
16.06. JaMarcus Russell
16.07. Josh Morgan
16.08. Adam Vinatieri
16.09. Tennessee Titans DEF
16.10. Laurent Robinson
16.11. James Jones
16.12. Stephen Gostkowski

Round Seventeen

17.01. Darrell Jackson
17.02. Jacksonville Jaguars DEF
17.03. Darius Walker
17.04. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF
17.05. Michael Bennett
17.06. New York Jets DEF
17.07. Ben Obomanu
17.08. Mason Crosby
17.09. Warrick Dunn
17.10. Robbie Gould
17.11. Rotoworld.com: Pittsburgh Steelers DEF
17.12. Jacob Hester

Round Eighteen

18.01. Justin McCareins
18.02. Rotoworld: Josh Scobee
18.03. Buffalo Bills DEF
18.04. Derek Hagan
18.05. Kevin Boss
18.06. Nate Kaeding
18.07. Neil Rackers
18.08. Josh Brown
18.09. Rob Bironas
18.10. Shayne Graham
18.11. Mike Nugent
18.12. Tatum Bell

[Hache Man]

Mock Madness
There's no time to waste in draft season, so let's get right to the Mock Draft below. The draft is probably my favorite industry league draft during camp, the Site Owners Fantasy Association (SOFA). It took place Tuesday night, August 19th.

It is crucial to understand the league scoring system and starting requirements, because it greatly affects draft value. This is PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF, and 1 Kicker. Scoring is standard otherwise, with four points per passing touchdown.

Don't underestimate how heavily this format tilts towards receivers, especially because of the flex position. Unless you have three exceptional running back options, you should plan to start four wideouts every week. In this scoring system, players like Roddy White and Bobby Engram outscored Marion Barber and Willis McGahee last season. Using our , Jerricho Cotchery outscores Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Johnson. Chris Chambers tops Laurence Maroney. That doesn't mean you should draft in that order (position scarcity still matters), but running backs will slip in this format.

Here are the results.

Round One

1.01. Fantasy Sharks: LaDainian Tomlinson www.sandiegochargers.ws
1.02. Fantasy Guru: Adrian Peterson www.minnesotavikings.ws
1.03. The Huddle: Brian Westbrook
1.04. Rotowire: Joseph Addai www.indianapoliscolts.ws
1.05. FFMastermind: Steven Jackson
1.06. FSP: Clinton Portis www.washingtonredskins.ws
1.07. Sports Weekly: Frank Gore
1.08. FFToday: Marshawn Lynch www.buffalobills.ws
1.09. FootballGuys: Marion Barber
1.10. KFFL: Larry Johnson www.kansascitychiefs.ws
1.11. Rotoworld: Randy Moss
1.12. Fantasy Insights: Terrell Owens

Trends, Etc: Westbrook usually goes ahead of Peterson in this format, but not always. … Steven Jackson's holdout hasn't hurt him yet, although I've seen him fall further in other drafts. … There is always a Larry Johnson believer out there. He went about 15 picks too early in our view. … Owners clearly believe Lynch will catch more passes this year. I was hoping to get him and a top receiver with my first two picks, but Lynch didn't fall. I happily took Randy Moss.

Round Two

2.01. Reggie Wayne
2.02. Rotoworld: Andre Johnson
2.03. Reggie Bush
2.04. Tom Brady
2.05. Ryan Grant www.greenbaypackers.ws
2.06. Peyton Manning www.indianapoliscolts.ws
2.07. Braylon Edwards
2.08. Maurice Jones-Drew
2.09. Larry Fitzgerald www.arizonacardinals.ws
2.10. Marques Colston
2.11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
2.12. Tony Romo

Trends, Etc: One of the hardest decisions of my draft was A.J. vs. Reggie Bush. It definitely changes the complexion of a team to go WR-WR in any format, no matter how many points they score. (Our optimistic projections for Johnson would place him as the RB5 in scoring.

Still, the top tier of wideouts is safe. I don't feel that way about Bush. I knew the top wideouts would be gone next time around. And frankly, it's a good idea to try different strategies in these "industry" leagues. There's sadly almost nothing at stake. Everyone in the draft would rather win their local leagues with friends and co-workers, which is how it should be. They certainly put more energy into it. Plus I had the right draft slot to go this route. … Brady fell further than usual, but Peyton Manning's knee injury didn't scare people away. Three quarterbacks going in round two show the difference in how the industry views the position this season.

Round Three

3.01. Chad Johnson
3.02. Drew Brees
3.03. Santonio Holmes
3.04. Darren McFadden www.oaklandraiders.ws
3.05. Steve Smith (CAR) www.carolinapanthers.ws
3.06. Calvin Johnson www.detroitlions.ws
3.07. Torry Holt
3.08. Brandon Marshall
3.09. Brandon Jacobs www.newyorkgiants.ws
3.10. Jamal Lewis www.clevelandbrowns.ws
3.11. Rotoworld: Wills McGahee
3.12. Matt Forte

Trends, Etc: It was very surprising Chad Johnson didn't fall further because of his shoulder injury, which has a lot of mystery around it. … Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall didn't get knocked much for their suspensions, which makes sense. … I was disappointed Jacobs didn't fall two more spots. As you'll see later, this was a draft that I took the players with sinking stock. The guys no one wanted. McGahee would have gone in the mid-second round two weeks ago. There are definite concerns, but I was comfortable with the value here. … Calvin Johnson's preseason hype is definitely affecting his status.

To practice your own Mock Drafts and see ADP data, head to our new site MockDrafts.Rotoworld.com.

Round Four

4.01. Wes Welker
4.02. Rotoworld: Anquan Boldin
4.03. Carson Palmer
4.04. Plaxico Burress
4.05. Ben Roethlisberger
4.06. Antonio Gates www.sandiegochargers.ws
4.07. Greg Jennings
4.08. Jason Witten
4.09. Laurence Maroney
4.10. Thomas Jones
4.11. Michael Turner www.atlantafalcons.ws
4.12. Roy Williams (DET)

Trends, Etc: I really wanted Welker, but thought McGahee might go on the turn and running back was a bigger priority. I'm not remotely concerned about Boldin's contract displeasure. … Gates' improving health rightly puts him first at tight end. … Solid running back options like Maroney, Jones, and Turner fall late. … Palmer is a good value a round or more later than Brees and Romo.

Round Five

5.01. Kellen Winslow
5.02. Dwayne Bowe
5.03. Earnest Graham
5.04. Roddy White
5.05. Jerricho Cotchery
5.06. Willie Parker
5.07. Lee Evans
5.08. LenDale White www.tennesseetitans.ws
5.09. Edgerrin James
5.10. Marvin Harrison
5.11. Rotoworld: Selvin Young
5.12. Kevin Smith www.detroitlions.ws

Trends, Etc: Once again, serviceable RB2/3 options continue to fall. … Marvin Harrison is an excellent boom-or-bust pick at this stage. LenDale White goes two rounds in front of Chris Johnson, which is surprising. We have Johnson projected just ahead of White in PPR leagues, but both should be productive. … Young has some boom-or-bust to him, but he can be a top-15 back while healthy.

Round Six

6.01. Tony Gonzalez
6.02. Rotoworld: Ronnie Brown www.miamidolphins.ws
6.03. Laveranues Coles
6.04. Kevin Curtis
6.05. DeAngelo Williams
6.06. Rudi Johnson
6.07. Jonathan Stewart
6.08. Chris Chambers
6.09. Nate Burleson
6.10. Donald Driver
6.11. Hines Ward
6.12. Julius Jones

Trends, Etc: Definitely my gut check pick of the night. Jonathan Stewart and Chris Johnson were there, and Stewart was very tough to pass on this late. The idea isn't to make popular picks in August; the idea is to win. And for a sixth-round pick, I believe Brown can make a huge difference in November and December when championships are decided. Perhaps I'm wrong, but don't afraid to make unpopular picks, no matter what they are.

There is only one certainty in fantasy football: The consensus is a moron. The consensus will look horribly, pathetically odd eight weeks from now. I've said this before, but no set of rankings could look half as crazy as what will actually happen. That's the beauty of sport. We can make our projections as educated as possible. But if we knew what would happen, it wouldn't be much fun.

With all that said, the Rudi Johnson and Nate Burleson picks this early made me shudder. Just like my Brown pick probably did for others. Rudi is going to split carries, if he's ever healthy enough to play. Burleson is in a great situation, but is an inconsistent talent. … Interesting to see DeAngelo Williams and Stewart go closely together. Expect to see that in most drafts.

Round Seven

7.01. Ricky Williams
7.02. Chris Johnson
7.03. Donovan McNabb
7.04. Matt Schaub
7.05. Santana Moss
7.06. Jay Cutler
7.07. Fred Taylor
7.08. Joey Galloway www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
7.09. Bernard Berrian
7.10. Chris Cooley
7.11. Rotoworld: David Garrard www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws
7.12. Chester Taylor

Trends, Etc: The running back talent starts to fall off a cliff after this round. Arguments can be made for Johnson, Ricky, and the Taylors as solid RB2/3 flex options. Chris Wesseling will tell anyone that will listen Johnson should have gone two rounds higher, and I hope he's proven right. The running backs after this round get risky. … Looks like Rotoworld is not the only site with Matt Schaub fever. Cutler is in my tier of quarterbacks with Roethlisberger and McNabb, so I was very disappointed to see him go ahead of me. I didn't trust who would get back to me and went with my highest ranked remaining quarterback. … Galloway, Berrian, and Moss all get hurt in PPR leagues because they won't rack up receptions.

Round Eight

8.01. Matt Hasselbeck
8.02. Rotoworld: Jeremy Shockey
8.03. Vincent Jackson
8.04. Derrick Mason
8.05. Javon Walker
8.06. Ted Ginn Jr.
8.07. Rashard Mendenhall
8.08. Eli Manning
8.09. Derek Anderson
8.10. Felix Jones
8.11. Dallas Clark
8.12. Marc Bulger

Trends, Etc: With Mason, Walker, and Ginn going off the board way too early, I'm feeling warm and fuzzies about having Boldin (our tenth-ranked PPR wideout) as my WR3. … At this stage, I chose being strong at other positions rather than building running back depth. Felix Jones and Mendenhall aren't bad picks at all in this round. But Shockey gives me an every-week starter, a PPR gem in Sean Payton's system. May as well go all the way receiver. If I really need the help, the wideouts are good trading chips. … Rotoworld isn't huge on Derek Anderson this season, but this is further than we've seen him fall. He's a fair value here.

[Hache Man]

Raise the Roof
Because Individual Defensive Players are so interchangeable, particularly defensive backs and linebackers, finding out which IDPs have the most upside is more important than it is for fantasy players on the opposite side of the ball. It's legitimately difficult to find an elite RB2 at midseason. It isn't hard to find a top-notch DB2.

Anybody can draft Cedric Griffin and anticipate 80 tackles, but one or no picks. This column takes into account those DBs, LBs, and DLs that can put it all together and give you production across the board while also posting massive tackle counts.

This is not a ranking of our top players at each position. Those can be found in the 2008 Rotoworld Draft Guide. Instead, this is a ranking of players with the highest ceilings. If you draft them and things go right for these guys, you should dominate your IDP league.

Defensive Linemen Highest Ceiling Ranks

1. Jared Allen, RE Vikings - Should be first player picked at any position in all IDP drafts.
2. Mario Williams, RE Texans - Another leap could set records. Only 23.
3. Justin Tuck, LE Giants - He'll replace Michael Strahan, and then some.
4. Julius Peppers, RE Panthers - Back at his natural position and in a contract year. Panthers changed from a read-and-react scheme to a penetrating defense.
5. Jason Taylor, LE Redskins - Will see time at both end spots, get more tackle chances now that he's mostly a strong-side end.
6. Kyle Vanden Bosch, RE Titans - When Albert Haynesworth plays next to you, you're automatically freed up.
7. Terrell Suggs, RE/ROLB Ravens - If he can combine his 9.5 sacks from '06 with his 78 tackles from '07, Suggs will be the NFL's richest defensive end in 2009.
8. Justin Smith, RE/ROLB 49ers - Relentless and will blitz more than he did in Cincinnati while playing hands up.
9. Osi Umenyiora, RE Giants - Avoiding streakiness could result in 16-sack season.
10. Will Smith, RE Saints - Addition of Sedrick Ellis helps.
11. Trent Cole, RE Eagles - Brodrick Bunkley getting better next to him.
12. Patrick Kerney, LE Seahawks - Seahawks upgraded on the opposite side with first-round pick Lawrence Jackson.
13. Derrick Burgess, LE Raiders - Tommy Kelly will draw more double teams than Warren Sapp inside. Burgess is playing for a raise.
14. Gaines Adams, RE Bucs - Will rarely rotate out in a pressure-based scheme.
15. Ray Edwards, LE Vikings - Won't see an offensive chip all year with Jared Allen opposite him and Pat and Kevin Williams beside him.

Linebackers Highest Ceiling Ranks

1. David Harris, ILB Jets - Skilled blitzer, driven to be the best, gets added protection help from new NT Kris Jenkins.
2. Patrick Willis, ILB 49ers - Led NFL with 174 tackles last year despite playing with a broken hand for nine weeks. Incredible in pursuit and born to bury ball carriers.
3. Stewart Bradley, MLB Eagles - 130 tackles, 6 sacks isn't out of the question.
4. Jonathan Vilma, MLB Saints - Health is the only thing preventing Vilma from being a preseason top-five LB. Will be protected much better than he was in New York.
5. Will Witherspoon, MLB Rams - Rushes off the edge in Rams' 3-4 fronts.
6. London Fletcher, MLB Redskins - Calls the plays, benefits from WLB Rocky McIntosh slowing down.
7. Brian Urlacher, MLB Bears - Does a little bit of everything, lots of tackling.
8. DeMarcus Ware, OLB Cowboys - Has chance at an 80-tackle, 15-sack season.
9. Nick Barnett, MLB Packers - Successfully appealed one-game suspension. WLB AJ Hawk's injury could mean increased early-season tackle opportunities.
10. Kirk Morrison, MLB Raiders - Oakland's defense is run on so much he's a lock for 110 tackles. Makes tons of plays on coverage.
11. Chad Greenway, WLB Vikings - Now playing behind Jared Allen. Should emerge as Vikes' best linebacker.
12. Keith Rivers, WLB Bengals - Already best linebacker on his team, by a long shot.
13. D.J. Williams, WLB Broncos - Don't like that he's moving from the middle, but like that he'll play there on passing downs.
14. Ernie Sims, WLB Lions - Rarely blitzes, but could improve on his 134-tackle season if Detroit is on defense more. Expect more fumbles caused.
15. DeMeco Ryans, MLB Texans - Lacks as high a ceiling in big-play leagues, but Houston's offense will improve and he'll see more opportunities in coverage.
16. Adalius Thomas, ROLB Patriots - Will be more comfortable in his second year of Bill Belichick's scheme. Thomas rushes from the weak side and will play OLB full time.
17. Barrett Ruud, MLB Bucs - Wearing the defensive headset. Should improve in second stint as a full-time starter.
18. Thomas Davis, WLB Panthers - Excellent blitzer adds value on the weak side behind Julius Peppers.
19. Paul Posluszny, MLB Bills - Marcus Stroud helps in front of him, but Poz may not be a three-down 'backer.
20. Curtis Lofton, MLB Falcons - Not a lock to start on opening day; will come off on third down.

Defensive Backs Highest Ceiling Ranks

1. Roman Harper, SS Saints - Will be better a year removed from ACL surgery. A candidate to lead all DBs in tackles and coordinator Gary Gibbs loves blitzing him.
2. Gibril Wilson, SS Raiders - The backend of Oakland's defense is a tackle hotspot.
3. DeAngelo Hall, CB Raiders - Would be first if not for hand injury, which could cost him a few picks early.
4. Adrian Wilson, SS Cardinals - Virtual lock to be a top-five DB if he eeks out 16 games coming off a torn Achilles' tendon.
5. Yeremiah Bell, SS Dolphins - Five-category (TCK, FF, INT, SCK, PD) player if he can stay healthy.
6. Darrelle Revis, CB Jets - A 6-7 pick season is in his future. Also a sure tackler.
7. Bernard Pollard, SS Chiefs - Will play in the box, blitz more than last year.
8. Daniel Bullocks, SS Lions - Would be higher if not for lingering knee issues.
9. O.J. Atogwe, FS Rams - Easily the best player in St. Louis' secondary.
10. Leon Hall, CB Bengals - Good hands + willing tackler + entrenched starting job - shutdown ability = IDP stud.
11. Chris Harris, SS Panthers - Probably won't pop seven fumbles again, but he'll benefit from the added experience in Carolina's scheme.
12. Sean Jones, SS Browns - Four-category player in a contract season. Hopefully he doesn't have to help in coverage all year.
13. Quentin Jammer, CB Chargers - Playing full time opposite Antonio Cromartie, he'll have more interception opportunities.
14. Kenny Phillips, FS Giants - May be the best rookie defender in the league this season.
15. Brandon Flowers, CB Chiefs - First-rate ball skills and fills hard against the run.

[Hache Man]

QB Tiers of Heaven
This is supposed to be the year of the quarterback in fantasy drafts. Committees and questions abound at running back. Many top wideouts are hurt, suspended, or disgruntled. So are we drafting quarterbacks differently?

Yes, but we're not getting carried away. According to the Average Draft Position (ADP) data at our brand new MockDrafts.Rotoworld.com site, three quarterbacks are going in the first two rounds. (Brady, Manning, Romo). Manning is often that high by himself.

Still, QB fever has its limits. Brady isn't cracking the top-five after throwing 50 touchdowns. Drew Brees usually goes in the third round, with Carson Palmer a solid value early in the fourth. Ben Roethlisberger goes later in the round. That makes six quarterbacks in the top-50 picks, when there usually would be four.

You don't have to draft a quarterback early to win. Position scarcity still devalues the position. You only need one starter, and there are guaranteed producers available throughout the middle rounds.

I see a huge drop-off after the first 17 quarterbacks, so owners that skip out on taking a top-five option should double up before the backups get gnarly in the late rounds.

Remember, the tiers below aren't static: To get updated tiers at every position until Week 1, show Rotoworld the love by checking out our draft guide with projections, profiles, and custom rankings for all players and leagues. Good luck this weekend!

Tier One: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning

The dynamic duo face some injury questions late in camp. Brady is practicing, and the Patriots are likely just being cautious. Just remember that Brady's career high in touchdowns before last season was 28. While Randy Moss and Wes Welker change things, he'll be closer to 35 touchdowns than 50 again. We have a hard time taking a quarterback in the first round when position scarcity devalues the position. But Brady is worth the pick after the top 7 running backs are gone.

Manning sounds iffy for Week 1, but we'd be a lot more worried if he was recovering from a torn knee ligament. We doubt he will miss any game time. And even if he does miss a week, he's still Peyton freaking Manning. With Marvin Harrison back, he's going to produce steady numbers. By taking Brady or Manning, you are betting on a wide gap with the rest of the position. That's what we see. Romo is not in this league yet. You are also guaranteeing you don't draft a bust. That's worth plenty.

Tier Two: Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Drew Brees

Palmer was the QB1 as a 25-year old. While Chad Johnson isn't 100%, the return of Chris Henry helps. Palmer could be undervalued playing behind a potentially dominant offensive line. Romo is prone to the occasional stinker, but his aggressiveness makes up for it. Brees should throw less, but he's still the favorite to lead the league in attempts. Both Brees and Romo will throw a high volume of passes.

We see these three as early picks (rounds three-to-four), although they are likely to go higher. Palmer will be a nice value if he falls to round four or five. If you get a quarterback from the top two tiers, you can wait until late in the draft to take a QB2.

Tier Three: Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler

The quarterback tiers are rather small this season. That's just how the projections landed – there was a huge gap after Cutler. These are the last quarterbacks we see as every-week starters with potential to finish in the top-three.

McNabb is another year removed from ACL surgery. He needs more touchdowns to go with his yards, while Big Ben needs more yards. We worry about his touchdowns declining if the Steelers improve their red zone running. Cutler is our favorite value QB1. He was ranked this high before we knew he lost 25 pounds during 2007 because of diabetes. Plenty of Rotoworld readers will own him this season, and they won't be disappointed. Brandon Marshall's two game suspension is a relatively minor knock. We're convinced Cutler will be the next great quarterback in the NFL. We see these three quarterbacks as relatively interchangeable on draft day.

They are mid-round (6-7) values, although Cutler will slip further than the other two. If you aren't comfortable mixing and matching your QB1, get one from the first three tiers.

Tier Four: David Garrard, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning

Every-week starting potential in this tier, but there are questions. Garrard is more explosive than you think, but his low pass attempts hurt. Hasselbeck's receivers are hurt, young, or shaky. We moved him down a spot because of his back problems. Anderson is a boom-or-bust pick that could finish in the top-five or lose his job by November. He and Hasselbeck are potential busts. Schaub, like Cutler, threw for a ton of yards-per-attempt, but didn't score enough. He's a top ten talent with big injury concerns. He's our favorite QB2 pick. Eli was great in the playoffs, but the same 'ol player before that. He needs to prove he can be new Eli over a 16-game schedule. He's still reliable enough to count on 3,500 yards, 16 games, and 20+ scores. That's nothing to sneeze at.

These are the last of the high ceiling QB1/2s. If you don't get a quarterback from the top three tiers, you could double up here and still be strong enough at the position.

Tier Five: Vince Young, Marc Bulger, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers

Our favorite QB2s. Rodgers is set up for success in Green Bay, while Young may not come this cheaply in a while. All Young has to do is modestly improve his passing, and his rushing stats will carry his value. We aren't projecting a huge rebound from Bulger because his teammates look shaky. Favre's numbers are going to decline in a new system with inferior talent around him. Remember his numbers from 2005-2006.

If you don't get a top-six quarterback, you ideally want a high ceiling backup from this group.

Tier Six: Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers, Matt Leinart, Jon Kitna

These four could be a tier above, but the statistical drop-off was too great. That's mostly because of playing time or injury concerns. Campbell is the exception, but he's been inconsistent as a pro and is learning another new system. He still should take a step forward towards being a solid QB2. Rivers was ordinary last season when he was healthy, and we expect a decline coming off a torn ACL. Leinart has upside, but also job security issues. So does Kitna if the Lions don't win. His pass attempts are going to take a big drop. These four are worth reaching for after the first nine rounds.

Tier Seven: Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, J.T. O'Sullivan, Trent Edwards, Tarvaris Jackson, JaMarcus Russell, Brodie Croyle, Kyle Orton

We'll believe that Delhomme comes back the same player after Tommy John surgery when we see it. His accuracy was erratic before. Everyone else either lacks experience or has playing time questions. Garcia is an injury risk and his play tailed off badly last year. Jackson is certainly set up for success, but hasn't shown signs that he'll take advantage. Edwards will be a good NFL quarterback, but won't be a great fantasy option yet. O' Sullivan is a fun late QB2 pick. He probably won't keep the job all season, but he could rack up some Kitna-lite garbage yards (and picks) while he sticks around. Orton and Croyle are the bottom of the barrel of quarterbacks expected to play most of the season.

Tier Eight: Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, Troy Smith, Kurt Warner Rex Grossman, Chad Henne, Chris Redman, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith

Ryan, Pennington, O'Sullivan, and Smith are all likely to start Week 1. Ryan is the best bet to finish the season still a starter. Pennington can help the Dolphins, but will give way to Henne eventually. Smith will give way to Flacco or Kyle Boller. Warner is projected for fewer points than some here, but would be the best fantasy option if he started. He's an interesting handcuff option for Leinart owners in deep leagues. No one else has that high a ceiling.

Tier Nine: Brady Quinn, Sage Rosenfels, Luke McCown, Kyle Boller, Matt Moore, Drew Stanton, Gus Frerotte, J.P. Losman, Trent Green, Todd Collins, Kerry Collins, Kevin Kolb, Tyler Thigpen, Shaun Hill, Byron Leftwich

The most interesting true backups. They would be worth a look if they got playing time. Because of their offenses, Quinn, Rosenfels, and Kolb would be the best options.

[Hache Man]

Last Minute Cramming
My friend Bob emailed a few days ago looking for all the big stories he needed to catch up on before heading to draft day. I was taken aback he wasn't keeping up to date with our non-stop news scroll. It appears the rest of America doesn't always share my fascination with the daily ups-and-downs of Chris Perry.

There are jobs to go to, families to take care of, and (gasp) other sports. The folks here at NBC seem distracted by this whole "Olympics" phenomenon, which thankfully didn't get in my way Thursday night. J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Kyle Orton, baby!

For all the Bobs out there, get caught up below with the 30 essential news items to know before your draft this weekend. True newshounds can probably skip this article.

And to all Bobs out there that haven't bought our online draft guide: Draft day will get much easier with our up-to-the-minute rankings, projections, cheat sheets, and tiers.

1. Chad Johnson's shoulder is a mystery

Ocho Cinco off-season of distcontent ended with him at training camp on time. He also got back on the field quickly following off-season ankle surgery. Just when it looked like one of the most reliable fantasy assets of the decade cemented his second-round status, a shoulder injury in the preseason knocked him to uncertainty again.

No one knows when Johnson will be back. That's partly why Chris Henry is back on the team, even if Henry isn't eligible to play until Week 5. There is some fear that Johnson could miss a big chunk of the season, and some optimism out there that he'll be back before Week 1. That makes him a risky pick for this weekend's drafters. Plan on him missing a few games, and be pleasantly surprised if he's ready to play right away.

2. Rudi rebound already in trouble

Rudi Johnson looked broken down in 2007 while trying to play through a hamstring injury. The same problem has kept him out for nearly all of training camp, allowing Chris Perry to pass him on the depth chart. Perry has his own long injury history, but he's now our top-ranked Bengals back. Johnson's Average Draft Position in the fifth round is about five rounds too high. We'd rather take Kenny Watson as a deep reserve pick.

3. Marvin Harrison is more likely to play in Week 1 than Peyton Manning www.indianapoliscolts.ws
That's one of those scandalous headlines to make you click on an article. Except you have already clicked on this one, so it's just pointless. Both players have a chance to play in the opener, but Harrison is far safer. Harrison's legal problems have magically disappeared, and his knee has looked good in the preseason. Don't expect the old Harrison, but he looks undervalued in the fourth round.

Manning, on the other hand, has recovered slowly from a procedure to remove an infected bursa sac from his left knee. His status for Week 1 won't be certain until the week of the game. There are a lot "whispers" surrounding Manning's recovery that suggest the Colts are more concerned long-term than they are letting on, but it could be normal NFL gossip. We'll know more when we see if he practices or not next week. If you can't wait that long to find out, we wouldn't knock Manning too far in the draft. He's still Peyton Manning.

4. Kevin Curtis won't go for 221 yards again anytime soon

Last year's number one Kevin Curtis is expected to miss at least half the season after undergoing sports hernia surgery. This is an injury that tends to linger, so it's hard to imagine stashing him before the last few rounds on draft day.

With Reggie Brown also banged-up, rookie DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett will see more throws. Just like the old days of Pinkston and Thrash, the Eagles receivers aren't worth taking early.

5. Ricky Freaking Williams passed Ronnie Brown on the depth chart
www.miamidolphins.ws
With six NFL carries in the last three seasons, Ricky is fresh! He's looked it during an impressive string of practices and preseason efforts. He probably won't stay healthy for long, but it would be a surprise if Williams doesn't get more carries than Brown in September. Brown is still exceedingly talented and will be ready to play Week 1. We bet on Brown having more fantasy value than Williams over the course of the season.

6. Antonio Gates is on track
www.sandiegochargers.ws
With more than two weeks to go before the opener, Gates was back on the practice field in San Diego. He quickly participated in team drills, which would support Gates' belief he'll be ready for Week 1. Take Gates ahead of Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, although the gap has closed.

7. Willis McGahee is iffy for Week 1
www.baltimoreravens.ws
McGahee underwent arthroscopic surgery on August 11, allowing rookie Ray Rice to impress everyone surrounding the Ravens. Both the team and player believe McGahee will be ready for the season opener, although he'll probably lose some carries to Rice early in the season. Other players have returned from the same surgery in less time.

We're more concerned with McGahees teammates (Troy Smith is the favorite to start at quarterback, the offensive line is banged-up) than his knee. The Ravens organization also wants McGahee in his playbook more. Rice looks like one of the better true backups to own.

8. Ryan Grant has barely seen a football field all offseason
www.greenbaypackers.ws
I wrote about this in my blog at length, so I won't repeat myself too much here. But it seems odd that more owners aren't concerned with a potential first-round pick that held out during OTAs and has been hurt all camp.

8. Chris Johnson hype could power a third world country
www.tennesseetitans.ws
I'm becoming a prime contributor. Johnson was initially seen as a third-down back, but he's earned a bigger role in the Titans offense. The speed merchant has the game to play on any down. Bet on LenDale White leading the Titans in carries, but Johnson will nearly match his touches because of his work in the passing game. This will be a close committee. Both Titans backs could be good values in drafts, like a cheaper version of the Jaguars.

9. The Seattle passing game is full of questions

Bobby Engram, the only reliable Seahawks receiver, is out until Week 5 with a cracked shoulder. Deion Branch may be out longer, and Matt Hasselbeck has barely practiced all month because of a back injury. Someone has to fill the void, and Courtney Taylor is our favorite sleeper of the young Seattle wideouts.

10. DeAngelo Williams is the favorite to start in Carolina
www.carolinapanthers.ws
This is a big weekend for Jonathan Stewart, Carolina's first-round pick at running back. The power back needs to prove he's ready for a big early-season role after a shaky camp. Williams, Carolina's first-round pick two years ago, has run decisively and earned a starting job. Since Stewart is more likely to play on the goal line, he still has the biggest upside. Like Ronnie Brown, we project the Week 1 backup to be the most valuable by fantasy playoff time.

11. J.T. O'Sullivan is the next Jon Kitna. He hopes.

Of all these headlines, this one would have surprised me the most a month ago. The definition of a journeyman (seven teams in five years), O'Sullivan has passed former number overall pick Alex Smith on the depth chart. In Mike Martz's pass-happy offense, there is some fun late QB2 upside here. Just don't expect him to start all 16 games.

Who JTO will throw to is still a mystery other than Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce. Rookie Josh Morgan could start in Week 1 and is a nice keeper league pick. Bryant Johnson and Arnaz Battle have been hurt most of the preseason.

12. Steven Jackson returned in time from his holdouts

Like most holdouts, this got too much attention. Jackson returned with plenty of time to get ready for Week 1, just like everyone knew he would. He's our third pick in standard scoring leagues.

13. Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith are suspended for the first two games www.carolinapanthers.ws

You'd have to be under a Ted Washington-sized rock to miss this, but you never know. These two are still top-10 receivers when they play, so the should go in the third and fourth round. Just a little patience …

14. Eddie Royal will start for the Broncos

While other hyped rookie wideouts like Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, James Hardy, and Donnie Avery struggle, Royal has earned a starting job in Denver. He'll probably keep it when Marshall returns from suspension, putting Darrell Jackson on the bench.

15. Javon Walker could lose his starting job

Walker tried to retire at one point during camp. He doesn't seem right mentally or physically, and coach Lane Kiffin indicated he could bench the big free agent acquisition. We wouldn't draft him with Bea Arthur's team.

16. Chad Pennington will open against the Jets in Week 1
www.miamidolphins.ws
This hasn't been confirmed officially, but the Dolphins will roll with Pennington early in the season. That should help the whole offense, but don't expect Pennington to last the season. Rookie Chad Henne has been impressive.

17. Kevin Smith should be Detroit's Week 1 starter at running back
www.detroitlions.ws
He's still coming off a 450-carry season in college and playing behind a shaky offensive line. But Smith has rendered Tatum Bell useless enough that the former Broncos may not make the team.

18. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris will split carries

This could be truest running back committee in the league. Both players can play all three downs, and they are fully expected to take turns with the first-team offense in Seattle. One drive at a time.

19. Deuce McAllister should make the Saints

I had my doubts about McAllister, who is one of my all-time favorite Saints. He is still coming off microfracture and ACL surgery, and the odds are long that he'll stay healthy for the year. Still, McAllister has played in the preseason and looks on track to share the work with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas in Week 1.

20. No news is good news for Selvin Young

Denver's depth chart at running back remained refreshingly unchanged all camp. Selvin Young is number one and Andre Hall is his backup. The team hopes promising rookie Ryan Torain can return from elbow surgery by mid-season.

And 10 more quickies…

21. Kevin Jones should be healthy enough to backup Matt Forte in Chicago.
22. The Bears plan to rotate their top receivers, ruining any possible fantasy value.
23. The Patriots plan to keep five running backs, making the roles of LaMont Jordan and Sammy Morris uncertain.
24. Jerry Porter plans to return to practice next week, which would get him ready for Week 1. Reggie Williams has already returned from knee surgery in Jacksonville.
25. Rookie Tim Hightower is Edgerrin James' new backup.
26. Ernest Wilford is now the fourth receiver in Miami.
27. Bills All Pro tackle Jason Peters is still a holdout, which is a big concern for the Bills offense.
28. It's only the preseason, but Marc Bulger has thrown 23 passes for 85 yards in two games with terrible protection.
29. Shawne Merriman has a knee injury that could threaten his season.
30. Brett Favre un-retired. We think.

[Hache Man]

Stumped? Take Schaub
The intention here is not to overrate the preseason; it's something any knowledgeable football fan would preach against. For the most part these stats are meaningless. Marcus Mason leads the NFL in rushing, but he's a fourth-stringer without an obvious future. Brett Ratliff is the league's top passer, but wasn't even that good at Utah. Undrafted Colts rookie Jordan Senn is tops in preseason tackles. He doesn't have a profile at NFL Draft Scout or wikipedia, and I thought they had everybody.

However, it is exciting to see first-team skill players dominate first-team defenses, even if the defenses they're facing are vanilla. As I wrote last week, Calvin Johnson has done his damage in just four offensive series against Giants and Bengals starting cornerbacks.

Another starter who's lit it up is Matt Schaub. Schaub started shaky at Dallas on Friday night, battling through a string of errant throws, but finished 15-of-27 for 166 yards and an 11-yard touchdown pass to Kevin Walter. He's now completed 68.8% of his attempts for 382 yards, three scores, and no picks.

Some may view it as inevitable success against defenses that aren't game planning, others as a sign of things to come. In Schaub's case, we'd lean towards the latter for five reasons:

1. Houston's receiver corps is among the AFC's best, and has continuity and depth. Catch-first TE Owen Daniels is ready for a third-year leap. Andre Johnson is a top-three talent at the position. Walter, leading the Texans in preseason receiving, looks quicker than ever and combines big hands with run-after-catch ability. Andre' Davis provides explosiveness in reserve and Football Outsiders favorite David Anderson is coming on. All six Texans tailbacks can catch.

2. Houston's secondary will force the offense to keep up. This defensive back corps is going to be bad. Cowboys castoff Jacques Reeves wouldn't even have made Dallas' roster this year had they retained him. He's now the Texans' starting RCB and leads the team in tackles, not something you want your cornerbacks to do. The Texans don't have good cover safeties and will be without top CB Dunta Robinson (torn ACL, hamstring) until Week 7. They'll surrender a lot of points.

3. Schaub is playing with urgency after aggressive backup Sage Rosenfels' late-year run in 2007. That's not to say Schaub has a short leash; far from it. The Texans traded two second-round picks (the most valuable commodities in front office football) and took a move down in the 2007 draft for Schaub, then signed him to a six-year, $48 million deal. But Houston was offered Minnesota's third-round pick for Rosenfels this offseason and wouldn't budge. Schaub feels some heat, and we see that as a good thing. He'll make that contract look like chump change by season's end.

4. The Texans' backfield is in shambles and doesn't have a reliably effective member. Chris Brown and Ahman Green are hurt. Rookie Steve Slaton has change-of-pace potential, but isn't a three-down option yet. Chris Taylor is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and won't make anyone miss. Darius Walker isn't even getting a look and Marcel Shipp is a plodder. To move the rock, the Texans will have to pass.

5. Schaub is remarkably accurate and loves to go vertical, dating back to his days as a Virginia Cav. His career yards-per-attempt average is 7.3. For perspective, Tom Brady's is 7.2, Donovan McNabb's is 6.8, Brett Favre's is 7.0, and Carson Palmer equals Schaub at 7.3. Keep in mind sample size, but Schaub has always been aggressive and his YPA will only improve.

Schaub got nicked up last year and that keeps his Average Draft Position low. He's going as the QB16, behind far less recommended signal callers Philip Rivers (toughest schedule for passers in the league), Brett Favre (new offense), Marc Bulger (shell-shock concerns), and Matt Hasselbeck (back woes, revamped receivers). We have Schaub as the QB12. He's an ideal value in the tenth round of drafts.

Before you check the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide to look up Schaub's projections, read these notes from around the American Football Conference...

Baltimore - Willis McGahee (knee surgery) still can't run and is very iffy for the opener. Get ready to use Ray Rice in a flex spot against the Bengals...Coach John Harbaugh says Joe Flacco is back in the mix to start Week 1. Don't buy it. They can't throw him in there with construction worker/offensive tackle Chad Slaughter on the blind side...Baltimore's secondary appears primed to take a big step back this year, at least early on. FS Ed Reed (shoulder) still hasn't faced contact and may not face Cincinnati. CBs Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are also at less than full strength and both are over 31. GM Ozzie Newsome's inability to draft well at corner is showing and the Ravens will be a good fantasy matchup.

Buffalo - Early speculation is that Bills T Langston Walker broke his forearm on Sunday. Walker, quite possibly the team's best run blocker and a 6'8/370-pound beast, has been filling in at left tackle in place of holdout Jason Peters. The Bills' tackle situation is a concern for Marshawn Lynch. We'll know more Monday...Rookie James Hardy is going as high as the ninth round in 10-team drafts. Hardy's long-term projection is swell, but he won't do much between the 20s this season in a conservative run-first offense while playing in a likely rotation with incumbent Josh Reed...Lee Evans is running shorter routes for new coordinator Turk Schonert and leads the Bills with nine preseason catches for 88 yards.

Cincinnati - Carson Palmer broke his nose in the third exhibition, but he'll start at Baltimore in Week 1. Whether he'll have Chad Johnson (shoulder) is uncertain, but Ocho Cinco vows to play and the Bengals say he's healed faster than expected. It could go down to the wire...Chris Perry would start at tailback if the season began today. His YPC so far (3.4) is weak, but Perry has faced stacked fronts with T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hamstring) and Johnson sidelined and is running with authority. Don't be surprised if Rudi Johnson is part of Saturday's final cutdowns...Housh says he'll be back practicing this week...Chris Henry's return from suspension could sap TE Ben Utecht's fantasy value from Week 5 on.

Cleveland - The stitches in Braylon Edwards' foot shouldn't affect his fantasy draft status. We project him to post an 83-1230-14.8-12 line for the season. His TDs will likely come back to earth after last year's 16...Brady Quinn had a chance to put pressure on Derek Anderson Saturday, but didn't. D.A. should be on a relatively long leash to open the year...Donte' Stalloworth is averaging only 6.7 yards per catch through three preseason games. Coordinator Rob Chudzinski will have him focus on shorter routes with Edwards as the deep threat...The Lions should've never traded Shaun Rogers. The guy is dominant.

Denver - The team believes Brandon Marshall's 2-3 game suspension could be reduced to one. His appeal will be heard this week. Marshall is on fire, pacing Denver with 10 preseason catches for 139 yards and two scores. Don't let him get to the fourth round of your draft...Selvin Young and Andre Hall are running strong, averaging 4.3 and 4.7 YPC respectively through three exhibitions. Hall is the slight favorite for goal-line work...Jay Cutler hasn't been sacked yet. LT Ryan Clady is an NFL-ready rookie on his blind side and Cutler is killing with a 69.8 completion rate and an 8.2 YPA with a 3:0 TD to INT ratio. Consider drafting him before Donovan McNabb following Kevin Curtis' injury...Tony Scheffler has one catch in the preseason...Smallish rookie Eddie Royal is having trouble releasing from the jam and may lose return duties because he's starting on offense.

Houston - Matt Schaub is showing why he projects to be the best value at QB in fantasy drafts. I covered Schaub in my intro, but if he can stay healthy he can be this year's Ben Roethlisberger...Andre Johnson returned from a slight groin injury and started Friday's exhibition. He's 100% and our No. 2 fantasy receiver...The Texans' backfield remains muddled. Chris Brown (back, knee) is hurt again and Ahman Green (groin) remains shelved. At least one of them will be cut by Saturday. The only Houston RB I'd pick is Steve Slaton, in the middle of PPR drafts...2007 pop sleeper Jacoby Jones is officially a fifth receiver...The Texans will be a great matchup for passing games this year. LCB Fred Bennett doesn't look good and RCB Jacques Reeves is shaping up as this year's Jason David.

Indianapolis - The Colts opened Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday with Peyton Manning in a baseball hat and collared shirt. There are indications that he will miss Week 1 due to a routine knee surgery, but the Colts seem encouraged with his recovery. That he's appearing in public is a good sign. He should certainly be the second fantasy QB picked...I noticed an interesting strategy by Gregg Rosenthal in a recent draft; he stole Marvin Harrison (who's healthy and flying around again) in the sixth round, then "handcuffed" him with Anthony Gonzalez in the 11th. Not a bad idea...Dominic Rhodes sewed up the primary backup job behind Joseph Addai weeks ago. Rookie Mike Hart will likely be third on the depth chart. Kenton Keith won't make it.

Jacksonville - The Jags' receiver corps should be intact on opening day. Jerry Porter (hamstring) is due back this week and Reggie Williams (knee) played in Saturday's preseason game. Porter missed all of training camp, and since he's learning a new offense, may begin the season slow...Maurice Jones-Drew sprained his ankle this weekend. Keep an eye on it...Rotoworld Top Prospect Mike Walker has seven preseason grabs for 75 yards. He and Matt Jones could rotate with Williams enough that the three might cancel each other out...The stock of the Jags' fantasy defense drops every day that Derrick Harvey's holdout continues. Jacksonville might not have one defender top five sacks this season.

Kansas City - "Their draft was awesome, man" was a common theme about the Chiefs this spring, but this team going to stink. While Herm Edwards and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey could eek out some sleep-induced wins (or 0-0 ties) by boring foes to death, perhaps no roster is as short on talent. GM Carl Peterson needs to watch the waiver wire this coming weekend...Brodie Croyle will be in a short leash to start the season. Look for Tyler Thigpen after the Chiefs' Week 6 bye...Rookie Will Franklin underwent knee surgery Saturday, locking Devard Darling into the second receiver role. Whoever is at QB for K.C. should overload Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe with targets...Kolby Smith looks to have regained his job as the No. 2 tailback after an in-camp scare from Jackie Battle. Jamaal Charles is out of Texas, but still fumbling.

Miami - Chad Pennington will be the Fins' Week 1 QB, but may not last long because rookie Chad Henne is ready. Miami's bye is in Week 4. A switch could happen early...Ronnie Brown won't be cut or traded, but he's clearly behind Ricky Williams on the depth chart and may feel pressure from rookie Jalen Parmele, who had an 80-yard TD run on Saturday night. Parmele will likely go back with Ted Ginn Jr. on kick returns this season...Anthony Fasano is locked in as the starter at tight end...With Jets RCB Justin Miller possibly out for the clubs' Week 1 matchup, Ginn could have a big game against fill-in rookie Dwight Lowery. Lowery can make plays on the ball but won't be able to run with the Dolphins' speedster.

New England - Tom Brady's sore foot isn't a concern. He'll start vs. Kansas City in Week 1 and should rip that secondary apart...LaMont Jordan hasn't played in the Pats' last two preseason games and is a candidate to be cut Tuesday. Sammy Morris appears set to back up Laurence Maroney again...Jabar Gaffney has held off Chad Jackson and will start at split end...Wes Welker suffered a rib injury in the team's third preseason game. We may never know the extent of the injury because New England is so secretive, but wouldn't bump him down draft boards.


New York - There are whispers that Thomas Jones has lost a step. The Jets' line play is improved, but Jones hasn't been productive in the preseason...Jerricho Cotchery is the favorite to be Brett Favre's target of choice this year. Cotchery has a high fantasy ceiling in what could be a pass-first offense...First-round pick Vernon Gholston hasn't passed Bryan Thomas on the depth chart at weak outside linebacker. He's looked good against the run, but isn't ready to be an impact pass rusher just yet...The battle at third receiver is ongoing between Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey, but Stuckey has the edge because he's a better weapon in the slot.

Oakland - The loss of Drew Carter locks Ronald Curry in as the starting flanker. The Raiders will run more than they pass, but Curry and Zach Miller should be 1-2 in catches when the season is done...Miller is a TE1 in the making. He's pacing Oakland in preseason receiving and had an awesome diving TD catch in the exhibition opener...JaMarcus Russell needs to improve his footwork and accuracy. He's also taking too many sacks...Darren McFadden has 36 preseason carries (4.4 YPC) to Justin Fargas' nine (3.4 YPC). The regular season split won't be so gigantic, but McFadden is going to play the most.

Pittsburgh - Willie Parker is losing third-down duty to Mewelde Moore. As for short-yardage work, Parker got a carry on second-and-one in the team's third exhibition but it was negated by penalty. Rashard Mendenhall executed on a second-and-two, but fumbled twice in the game. The battle for goal-line carries rages on...Santonio Holmes has added punt returning to his No. 1 receiver chores...Heath Miller is an elite NFL tight end, but could wind up blocking more than he runs routes this season to assist Pittsburgh's shaky offensive tackles...A leg injury to ILB Larry Foote could open the door for Lawrence Timmons to pass him on the depth chart.

San Diego - If he knows what's best, Shawne Merriman won't play this year. I don't see this being as big a loss for San Diego as Osi Umenyiora's is to the Giants, but it's a very big deal nonetheless. A healthy Merriman in his second year of coordinator Ted Cottrell's scheme could've gotten 15 sacks, easy...Antonio Gates (foot) is making great strides and could be all systems go for the Bolts' opener...Rookie Jacob Hester is the heavy favorite to back up LaDainian Tomlinson, but keep an eye on what transpires Monday night...The Chargers' passing game faces the league's toughest strength of schedule this season.

Tennessee - Vince Young has completed just 43.2% of his passes with a 4.2 YPA so far in the preseason. He's learning a new system and will improve every week, but should be expected to start slow. Encouraging is his yards-per-carry average (11.1)...Rookie homerun hitter Chris Johnson started the third preseason game with LenDale White nursing a minor injury, running for 35 yards on 11 totes. We hoped for more on the Georgia Dome turf, but he'll still play quite a bit this year...No. 2 tight end Bo Scaife is leading the team in preseason receiving and is a threat to Alge Crumpler's passing-down snaps...David Thornton remains the best Tennessee linebacker to target in IDP leagues. He'll wear the defensive headset. Keith Bulluck is showing his age

[Hache Man]

Still down with ADP
This is the biggest draft week of the year, so let's get a couple housekeeping notes out of the way and get to some Average Draft Position (ADP) trends and news items.

For those who asked, we'll be posting NFC Notes, Top 10 Vultures, Mock Draft analysis, and more high ceiling ranks during the week. Tiffany Simons and I will also be hosting our first Fantasy Fix Live show of the year Thursday at noon. Call us with your questions. Our season position and team previews are available here.

***

I'm going to take a look at some recent news and draft trends through the prism of our ADP data at MockDraft.Rotoworld.com. Drafts are starting every couple minutes, and this data only comes from drafts taken place since Saturday, so it should reflect the current state of Fantasy Nation.

The Boom-or-Bust RB2s

Ryan Grant: 2.07 ADP www.greenbaypackers.ws
Reggie Bush: 3.06 ADP
Brandon Jacobs: 3.10 ADP www.newyorkgiants.ws
Laurence Maroney: 4.03 ADP
Michael Turner: 4.05 ADP
Selvin Young: 5.07 ADP

RB2s are always risky. At least you won't have to pay as much this season. Bush and Jacobs were going much higher last season and their situations haven't changed. Both have the talent to out produce this draft slot. The Train is a bargain at that price.

Maroney looks about right. The Patriots are likely to keep his touches inconsistent as they attempt to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Turner's offense will hold him back, but he has big play potential. Young is going to produce like a top-15 running back as long as he stays healthy. This is a nice-looking price. Willie Parker isn't on this list because the boom potential is eroding.

The Bengals backfield morass

Rudi Johnson: 6.02 ADP
Kenny Watson: 9.10 ADP
Chris Perry: 11.01 ADP

While Rudi is trending down, it's not happening nearly fast enough. With news that he is being shopped for a possible trade, there's a decent chance he'll cut.

That means a lot of carries for Perry and Watson. While Watson and Perry are trending up, they aren't going high enough. Perry is a huge risk because he's only been healthy enough for 73 career carries, but it's a risk worth taking much earlier than the eleventh round. Our Monday night draft guide update pushed Perry into the top-35 running backs, a seventh-round value. Watson moved up and is a great reserve pick at this price. He'll clean up after Perry and Johnson get hurt. We have Rudi pegged in the twelfth round, making him one of the biggest busts to avoid. That projection may move down by the time you read this.

Committee Time

LenDale White: 6.04 ADP www.tennesseetitans.ws
Chris Johnson: 8.05 ADP

The Tennessee offensive line is good enough to make both backs solid values at these prices. White will lose touches, but still could nab 250 carries and plenty of scores. Johnson has earned a ton of high leverage carries. His hype isn't out of control at this price. I drafted him out of the top-110 in a recent draft.

Jonathan Stewart: 5.08 ADP www.carolinapanthers.ws
DeAngelo Williams: 7.05 ADP

This was a surprise. In nearly all the industry drafts I've taken part in, Williams went ahead of Stewart. The veteran has clearly enjoyed the strong preseason and should start in Week 1. I'm still backing Stewart, especially at this price. My belief in his potential has shown up in the rankings all summer, and his huge performance over the weekend eased fears about his toe. He's going to score more touchdowns than Williams. I'd bet on him getting more touches in the end. He's the ideal RB3.

Ronnie Brown: 5.03 ADP www.miamidolphins.ws
Ricky Williams: 7.08 ADP

These numbers have tightened up the last two weeks. While I've seen Ricky go higher than Brown occasionally, these spots match up closely with Rotoworld's ranks. It's a long season, and we'll take our chances with Brown outlasting Williams.

Ahman Green: 9.08 ADP
Chris Brown: 11.08 ADP
Steve Slaton: 12.09 ADP
Chris Taylor: Off the board

One of these guys will be a starting running back playing for the Godfather of Zone Blocking, Alex Gibbs. Brown and Green could potentially start or get cut. Don't trust Green to stay healthy for long, even at this spot. Slaton is proving that he's more than a third-down back and is a great mid-to-late-round pick. Taylor has an outside chance to start in Week 1 and be Houston's goal line back and he's not even getting taken. I like him in deep leagues. A committee of Slaton and Taylor wouldn't surprise.

The Hall of Famers

Tom Brady: 1.06 ADP
Peyton Manning: 2.03 ADP www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Preseason injuries aren't scaring people away. We have Manning pegged at the end of round two, but he's been there all along.

The Franchise Quarterbacks

Tony Romo: 2.07 ADP
Drew Brees: 2.11 ADP
Carson Palmer: 4.02 ADP
Ben Roethlisberger: 4.10 ADP

It hasn't been a great camp for Palmer, but the gap in his draft slot shouldn't be this large. I like the top receivers and most of the talented second running backs like Brandon Jacobs more than Romo and Brees that early.

Tight End Talk

Jason Witten: 4.09 ADP
Antonio Gates: 5.02 ADP www.sandiegochargers.ws
Kellen Winslow: 5.05 ADP www.clevelandbrowns.ws

I'd rank Gates first, but no argument can be made with the value for all three. They perform like second wideouts, so they deserve to be drafted like them. I'd much rather have them at this price than the following …

Tony Gonzalez: 6.04 ADP www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Dallas Clark: 6.04 ADP
Chris Cooley: 7.02 ADP

These guys are more than a round worse than the big three.

Clark is set up to be one of the biggest busts of the year. He's injury prone and has topped 40 catches, 500 yards, or five touchdowns once in his five-year career. Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will steal his shine. Cooley is solid, but in a system that may not feature him as much. Gonzalez has to deal with age and Brodie Croyle.

I'd rather wait at tight end if you don't go top shelf …

Tony Scheffler: 10.01 ADP
Owen Daniels: 11.05 ADP
Greg Olsen: 13.08 ADP
Zach Miller: Off the board

It wasn't so long ago that guys like Scheffler, Daniels, and even Olsen would have been taken in the top-eight tight ends. Scheffler and Daniels have already proven they can produce like fantasy starters, and they have big room for improvement. Olsen and Miller are big talents that are ready to take the normal second-year leap for tight ends.

Blotter Boys Wideouts

Chad Johnson: 3.04 ADP
Steve Smith: 3.06 ADP
Brandon Marshall: 4.05 ADP
Marvin Harrison: 4.11 ADP

I'm surprised Johnson didn't take more of a ADP hit after his preseason shoulder injury. Of course, these drafts mostly took place before the latest news of his torn labrum. He's a risky pick this high, but it does look like he'll play in Week 1. Kellen Winslow supposedly played all last season with a similar injury, and never needed surgery. But everyone's pain tolerance is different and it will only take one wrong landing to make it worse.

Smith and Marshall are much safer picks at these prices. As Mad Dog would say, good job by everyone not overreacting to the two game suspensions. Marshall could get his suspension reduced by a game, so this is a great value. It's surprising more people aren't willing to take a chance on Harrison after a healthy preseason. His ADP hasn't budged. You aren't going to find another receiver this late who is more likely to score ten times.

In Like a Lion

Calvin Johnson: 4.03 ADP
Roy Williams: 4.05 ADP

So much for Megatron slipping after a rough rookie season. The Lions will throw less this season, which is a concern, but these values make sense. Jon Kitna is going in the eleventh round. It's a concern that Kitna will lose his job during the year, but he's a serviceable QB2 at that price.

The Favre Effect

Thomas Jones: 3.08 ADP
Jerricho Cotchery: 5.03 ADP
Laveranues Coles: 6.02 ADP

The two wideouts climbed almost two rounds since Favre was signed! We had them ranked almost this high with Pennington, so the upgrades were less dramatic. Jones was taken tenth overall in a co-worker's league this week, which is New York insanity. Jones looked like a great value this as a cheap source for carries, but he's no longer that cheap.

[Hache Man]

Top 9 Vultures
Fantasy football isn't fair. A one-yard dive for a touchdown is far easier than 50 hard-fought yards, yet is far easier. We like to think that runners have a magical nose for the end zone, but mostly they just need the opportunity, some good blocking, and luck. NFL quality backs can gain a yard if given the chance.

Our top-ten vultures listed below should get enough opportunities. They are the potential glory hogs, the red zone runners ready to pilfer scores away from teammates. Some of the runners are true vulture backups, while some are in committees. They all should get chances to put up six cheap points.

The top nine vultures are ranked below, with the person he's stealing from in parenthesis.

Honorable Mention: Rudi Johnson (Chris Perry): The trade rumors call into question whether Rudi will even make the team. My guess is that owner Mike Brown would be happy to cut his salary, while Marvin Lewis is a desperate coach who wants all the help he can get. Brown won the last pissing match with Lewis: Chris Henry. If Lewis wins this one, Rudi could turn into a red zone specialist behind Chris Perry and Kenny Watson. Until he gets hurt again.

9. Jesse Chatman (Thomas Jones): The Jets' red zone struggles last season were the fault of their soft offensive line, not Jones. But if Jones doesn't convert his chances early in the year, New York may look to his burly backup.

8. Deuce McAllister (Reggie Bush): This is our fourth annual vultures list. Deuce was second last season and fourth in 2006 when he was coming off his first ACL surgery. I doubt McAllister will be healthy or effective enough to maintain a significant role in New Orleans. But Sean Payton may let the franchise legend get a few cracks inside the five-yard line to get the NOLA crowd excited. (And when Deuce gets hurt, Pierre Thomas runs with surprising power for his size).

See all the Saints' backfield projections in the Rotoworld draft guide.

7. Dominic Rhodes (Joseph Addai): Like Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai is known to tap out of a game a time or five. If Addai gets winded after a long drive, Rhodes could reprise his old role as Colts vulture. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

6. Sammy Morris/LaMont Jordan (Laurence Maroney): The Patriots backfield remains a mystery, but my gut says LaMont Jordan will have a bigger role than most imagine. Of course, he could also get cut by Saturday. Either way, Laurence Maroney owners can expect a rotation at running back, with Morris, Kevin Faulk, and possibly Jordan involved. Time off the field means fewer chances to score.

5. Andre Hall (Selvin Young): Hall isn't exactly your typical goal-line bruiser, but neither is Selvin Young. Hall replaced Young a few times in the preseason near the money stripe. Was it just the usual Mike Shanahan misdirection or a sign of things to come? Only the Mastermind knows.

4. Tim Hightower (Edgerrin James): Timmy! Marcel Shipp was called Edgerrin James' short-yardage replacement last year, but the numbers don't totally bear it out. James still got most of the chances. Look for Ken Whisenhunt to spread out the carries more this season, with Hightower likely to steal plenty of scores. www.arizonacardinals.ws

3. Chris Taylor (Ahman Green/Steve Slaton): I've been driving the Chris Taylor bandwagon for a while, stopping occasionally to beg for gas money, buy beef jerky, and send expletive-laden emails about Ahman Green to Gary Kubiak. And it appears to be working!

Even long-time Darius Walker aficionado Evan Silva has jumped onboard by taking Taylor in our deep NBCSports.com office league. Taylor doesn't run fancy after knee surgery, but he's healthier than Green and looks the part. Take a flier on Taylor as a vulture and you just may wind up with a starting tailback.

Taylor could be a sneaky Week 1 play in the 100K challenge if he starts for the Texans.

2. Rashard Mendenhall (Willie Parker): FWP has the reputation as a poor goal line back, even with his own coaches. Parker was fifth in the NFL in goal line carries in 2006, and his conversion rate wasn't great, but it was better than players like Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, and Marion Barber.

Last season, Parker fell to a tie for 27th in goal line tries, only converting once in seven chances. Teammate Najeh Davenport got three more cracks at glory. Look for Mendenhall to get an even larger share this season. I've said it before, but Parker is slated for a Fred Taylor-like role. He'll rip off long runs between the twenties on running downs, but Mendenhall will get the glory on receiving downs and near the stripe.

1. Jonathan Stewart (DeAngelo Williams): You have to be a backup to qualify for this list. LenDale White is also in a committee and should get plenty of scores, but he's likely to lead the Titans in carries as a starter. While I believe Stewart will wind up leading the Panthers, DeAngelo Williams will open the season as the starter. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Stewart moves unlike any 235-pound player I've seen. Perhaps like a young Jamal Lewis, but with receiving skills. He will be the perfect red zone player for Carolina. Even if Williams leads the team in carries early, look for Stewart to score the fantasy points. That's what being a vulture is all about.

[stan21]

Damn Hacheman, this is some detailed info ! Impressive... you are officially not invited to any of my leagues ... lol... I started to subscribe for a site last year, and went 4 for 4 playoffs, but couldn't win the big game in any of my leagues. I will be going thru this thread before my last, and biggest draft next week... Nice job... looks like you do this for Baseball and Hoops too ?

[Hache Man]

Originally Posted by stan21

Damn Hacheman, this is some detailed info ! Impressive... you are officially not invited to any of my leagues ... lol... I started to subscribe for a site last year, and went 4 for 4 playoffs, but couldn't win the big game in any of my leagues. I will be going thru this thread before my last, and biggest draft next week... Nice job... looks like you do this for Baseball and Hoops too ?

Hey Stan, good to see you here.....

[Hache Man]

NFC Notes: Warner Resurrection
During our last look around the league, the estimable Mr. Silva taught us lessons from around the AFC. This time we'll look at the NFC, with preseason mercifully coming to an end Friday night.



Atlanta Falcons: Any hope Laurent Robinson had to be a sleeper ended when Michael Jenkins took back his starting job. The ascension of Matt Ryan won't help either. No matter what you think of Chris Redman, playing with a rookie quarterback is bad news for the Atlanta passing game. That means you, Roddy White owners! … Don't be shocked if the Falcons are like last year's Raiders. They can be the rare terrible offense that still manages to run like crazy. Mike Mularkey loves to pound the football, so there should be enough carries to go around for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. www.atlantafalcons.ws

Arizona Cardinals: It doesn't matter if Ken Whisenhunt doesn't announce his starting quarterback until next Sunday. It would be a shock if Kurt Warner isn't starting. There is a sense that going with Leinart would hurt the Whiz's standing in a locker room convinced Warner gives them the better chance to win. Warner remains a fine QB2 pick after the top 13-15 quarterbacks are drafted. He won't last all season, but he'll help you until he gets hurt. … Don't call it a committee, but Tim Hightower can top 100 carries as Edgerrin James' caddy. He's draftable in all leagues. … The Cardinals continue to struggle to find a third receiver and a quality tight end. That means more targets for Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Warner's re-emergence bodes well for the two veterans. www.arizonacardinals.ws

Carolina Panthers: Despite DeAngelo Williams' strong preseason, expect to see a close split in touches between Williams and Jonathan Stewart to start the year. Stewart is too talented to keep on the bench. I'm excited for Week 1 to start so I don't have to keep repeating that I expect Stewart to have more value by the end of the season. … D.J. Hackett's status for the opener is uncertain. He could miss a great opportunity to put up numbers while Steve Smith is out, cementing his role in the offense. Dwayne Jarrett would start opposite Muhsin Muhammad if Hackett is out. Mr. Hackett and I have a long, sordid history, but this year his reputation as a high ceiling pick could outweigh his value. Don't expect him to stay healthy. www.carolinapanthers.ws

Chicago Bears: The Orton/Grossman battle was good for punchlines, but what will it mean for Chicago's offense? I expect a conservative attack that features plenty of passes to tight ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. Olsen looks like the best candidate to breakout among their receivers. Rashied Davis, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, and Marty Booker will cancel each other out. … Kevin Jones played as Matt Forte's backup Thursday. His 34-yard run in the preseason showed he's healthy enough. It appears he's already passed Adrian Peterson on the depth chart and is a great handcuff for Forte owners. It's easy to forget how talented Jones can be if healthy.

Dallas Cowboys: Pro Football Prospectus pointed out how ridiculously overdue the Cowboys were for some injuries this season, especially on the offensive line. Now they've already seen G Kyle Kosier and their third and fourth receivers go down. The injuries are hardly fatal, but make sure they don't lose any more pieces. … There isn't much mystery to the Cowboys offense. One of the only questions left is how big a role Felix Jones will have. The Dallas coaches' dreamy eyes when talking about Jones in Hard Knocks and Jones' impressive preseason indicate he'll get at least 10 touches a game. … Patrick Crayton is a nice post-hype pick this year; it's easy to forget how much he's improved over his short career and that his development isn't over yet. The injuries to Sam Hurd and Miles Austin help Crayton even more.

Detroit Lions: It looks like Tatum Bell will make the team, although he'll be rookie Kevin Smith's backup. I have my doubts that either runner will be effective running behind Detroit's offensive line. … Jon Kitna's big preseason doesn't mean much, but it's a reminder that he can be a serviceable QB2 as long as he stays in the lineup. The main concern is that the Lions fall out of playoff contention and he gets benched for a younger option down the stretch. www.detroitlions.ws

Green Bay Packers: Ryan Grant was healthy enough to start Green Bay's final preseason game, but the team took him out after only one play. The preseason is overrated, but don't be surprised if his workload for Week 1 is lighter than usual. The Packers say they want to get Grant a few more catches, and a few less carries this season. Brandon Jackson remains a solid late pick. … James Jones could miss Week 1, which would open up more targets for Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. One concern for all the Packers wideouts is the shaky backup quarterback situation. Both rookie quarterbacks have struggled, and an injury to Aaron Rodgers would crush any receiver value. … Fantasy Nation seems to be down on Donald Lee's chances of repeating his career year. Good call. www.greenbaypackers.ws

Minnesota Vikings: If Tarvaris Jackson misses time this season, that should be good thing for Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian. Gus Frerotte is more likely to rack up passing yardage. Berrian's minor toe injury is one of many reasons to stay away from him. Rice owners should watch the development of Aundrae Allison, who threatens to take away some snaps eventually. Perhaps he could replace Bobby Wade in the slot. …LT Bryant McKinnie is looking at a four game suspension from the NFL. www.minnesotavikings.ws

New Orleans Saints: With players of any significance resting, including Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker, it was very interesting to see Deuce McAllister get eleven carries Thursday. If he wasn't playing for his spot on the team, he was certainly playing for some snaps in Week 1. It looks like Sean Payton shared my concern after watching Deuce run in the third preseason game. He looked better Thursday, ripping off a few longer runs, but also got stuffed near the line of scrimmage often. I wouldn't be shocked if McAllister is cut Saturday. At best, his role is uncertain. … Robert Meachem is getting a lot of misplaced hype in fantasy drafts. He's currently the fourth or fifth receiver in New Orleans. … Jeremy Shockey didn't take a snap in the preseason, which makes his health something to watch next week.

New York Giants: Not much was decided in Giants camp. Brandon Jacobs still leads a crowded backfield. Derrick Ward makes sense as a Jacobs handcuff, while Ahmad Bradshaw should have a change-of-pace role regardless. … At receiver Steve Smith remains promising, but injury prone. Plaxico Buress is terminally day-to-day, and a solid WR2 pick. Despite the losses on defense, this is a stable offense. www.newyorkgiants.ws

Philadelphia Eagles: Kevin Curtis is out until mid-season and is only worth a flier pick now. Reggie Brown could pick up the slack, but he's questionable for Week 1 with a hamstring injury. The larger question is whether Hank Baskett, DeSean Jackson, and L.J. Smith can keep Donovan McNabb's stats afloat in the meantime. We love McNabb's chances for one final big fantasy campaign, but this hasn't been a great month for the team around him. … The rumors of Correll Buckhalter's demise were greatly exaggerated. He and Lorenzo Booker will share the backup job, making it unnecessary to handcuff Brian Westbrook in shallow leagues.

St. Louis Rams: Steven Jackson's holdout didn't change our ranking of him. Orlando Pace's shoulder injury acting up is a bigger concern. Pace continues to practice and will be ready for Week 1, but another in-season injury from the All Pro would be devastating. The passing game already looked out of sorts during the preseason because of poor protection. … Dante Hall enters the season as the team's third wideout, which is good news for Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. This team will throw plenty, and someone has to catch passes other than Torry Holt. … On any other team, I'd be more worried about Holt's decline. He doesn't get the same separation or run away from defenders. But his numbers shouldn't fall off much because he'll see so many targets.

San Francisco 49ers: The J.T. O'Sullivan era is going to be a lot of fun. I expect the 49ers to lead the league in garbage time yards, head-scratching interceptions, and quarterback changes because of injury. This team will move the ball more, but good luck finding consistency from anyone but Frank Gore. … At receiver, Bryant Johnson should be healthy enough to start the final preseason game. If that happens, he'll probably start over rookie Josh Morgan in Week 1, with Morgan and Arnaz Battle getting plenty of time off the bench. … As a dynasty league owner of Vernon Davis, I'm concerned about terminally optimistic Mike Martz's Debby Downer statements about Davis' expected production. Expect lots of blocking. And inconsistency. He'll hit enough big plays to put up decent final stats, but may have some silent weeks.

Seattle Seahawks: I get a lot of questions about why Nate Burleson is ranked so low. Sometimes you have to evaluate the player, not the situation. And Burleson is a highly inconsistent player that is unlikely to put it all together. I'd much rather take one of my favorite sleepers Courtney Taylor later in the draft. … Maurice Morris continues to be undervalued. He won't win a league for you, but he's nice depth as a RB4. Look for him and Julius Jones to trade series early in the season. … Rookie John Carlson did finally win the starting tight end job.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If Jeff Garcia gets hurt or struggles, Jon Gruden probably won't be too disappointed to turn to Brian Griese, who plays like a coach on the field. The Bucs wouldn't lose that much production either. … Warrick Dunn looks to be the lesser half of a committee with Earnest Graham, with Michael Bennett picking up scraps. Dunn will especially cut into Graham's receiving numbers. That's why we have Graham ranked as a good, but not great, RB2. … We still don't know how the Bucs are going to split up snaps at wide receiver. My guess is that Maurice Stovall and Antonio Brant are next in line behind Joey Galloway, with Ike Hilliard around just in case. I still love Bryant's chances to emerge over the course of the season, but drafting him has plenty of risk. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

Washington Redskins: Washington's rookie wideouts blew their chance for playing time, much less a starting job, with an injured August. Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas just weren't quite ready for the NFL. That means more early targets for the usual crew: Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris Cooley. … Washington's five game preseason schedule was interminable, but they look to have found a keeper in Colt Brennan. With a 7.8 YPA and three touchdowns in five games, he had the best preseason of any rookie quarterback. He was playing against reserves, but so was Brian Brohm. At worst, Brennan looks like a nice long-term backup to Jason Campbell. … The Redskins aging starting offensive line stayed healthy in the preseason, which is news compared to the last few years. That bodes well for Clinton Portis. This is a boom-or-bust line that could be excellent or crumble all at once. www.washingtonredskins.ws

[Hache Man]

Updated: RB Tiers of Heaven
You may have heard this offseason that it's a "down year" for running backs because of all the committees. While there is certainly more uncertainty after the Top Ten than usual, it's more accurate to say that last year was a down year for running backs. That is mostly reflected in our Top-200 rankings, where we recommend taking most WR1s over second running backs.


Just don't get carried away. Because of position scarcity, nabbing three quality running backs is still a must for any owner with designs on a title. You just may be able to grab those starters a round or two later than usual. Quality players will fall to the fifth and sixth rounds.

Note: These players are ranked in standard non-PPR scoring.

Tier One: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson

Peterson's collapse in December made this decision easier, but not a cinch. Peterson is a singular talent. Drafting him is drafting a 10% chance at a historic season. He still has a lot of room for improvement, which is scary. LT2 is still the best, but he's not going to reach his 2006 dominance again.

Tier Two: Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore

We'd take all these backs before any quarterback or receiver. Westbrook is likely to see fewer touches this season, but remains the best pass-catching back in the league. Jackson performed as expected after his injury last season despite a terrible team. The offensive line has to get better. Jackson is back after his holdout and we aren't worried about a slow start or injury. Addai is the safest bet for 12+ scores other than LT2, but probably won't reach 300 carries. Gore's talent and the addition of Mike Martz will make him a great value if he falls.

Tier Three: Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Ryan Grant

The end of the true RB1s. This is a season with very few sure things at the position. Lynch is clear of any legal problems and is entering his prime. No one breaks more tackles. Other than Barber, we see 300 carries from the other backs in this tier. Barber makes it up with touchdowns and receptions. It would've been nice to have seen Grant play in the preseason, but he's healthy. Even though the top wideouts are safer picks, we'd still grab these RB1s before most of them. Grant is starting to slip behind a few top receivers, though.

Tier Four: Maurice Jones-Drew, Larry Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Jonathan Stewart

Leagues will be won and lost this season at the RB2 position. Mo-Jo needs Fred Taylor to get hurt to realize his full potential. Larry Johnson may be healthier, but he was struggling badly on the Chiefs before getting hurt next year. He won't look like the old L.J. until Will Shields and Willie Roaf un-retire. McGahee was very steady last season, but his offensive line is worse and he's coming off a mid-August surgery. Jacobs, Bush, and Maroney could be buy-low candidates on explosive offenses, but they have to worry about carries. Jacobs has the highest ceiling of any back here if he stays healthy. Stewart is an intriguing all-down bruiser who could be a great value as a rookie like Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch last season. He may not open the year carrying the load, but he'll finish it that way.

We see more boom-or-busts in this group than ever. Taking a second-round wide receiver makes a lot of sense this year ahead of most of these guys. You can limit your risk and maximize value by taking this group in round three. Two backs from the top four tiers starts off your running back group with strength.

Willis McGahee took a hit in our most recent draft guide rankings.

Tier Five: Darren McFadden, Thomas Jones, Michael Turner, Earnest Graham, Selvin Young

The last of the legitimate RB2s. McFadden may not last long, but the other four could fall into the fourth and fifth rounds. Jones isn't flashy, but he could give you 300 cheap carries. Jones is a safe bet to score more. Turner is a great talent, but is stuck in a nearly impossible situation. Earnest Graham is unlikely to carry the load as much as last year. Selvin Young is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick, but he'll be a difference maker while healthy. If you don't have a RB2 before this tier, make sure to get one.

Tier Six: Ronnie Brown, Matt Forte, LenDale White, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor

The best of the committee backs and RB3s. Ronnie Brown is a top-five talent, but has yet to top 300 touches and is coming off a torn ACL. Don't forsake him just because he'll start slow. And do you really want to bet on Ricky Williams staying healthy all year? White faces a challenge from Chris Johnson, but still should lead a smashmouth team with a great line in carries. He can still crack 1,000 yards and 8-10 scores. He's a safer pick than Johnson in non-PPR formats, but Johnson should get the ball enough to be an intriguing fantasy reserve. Johnson moved up in the last two weeks. Forte has a decent chance to lead all rookie runners in carries, but the Bears' offense is a concern. Parker is going to lose work to Mendenhall, and now profiles like a younger Fred Taylor, needing a big play every week to be worth using. Chester Taylor has stand-alone value, but Adrian Peterson owners should reach a round early for him.

We look at RB3s as a starter, whether you use a flex position or not. You will need to use them over the course of the season. These are the best of the bunch and have mid-round grades.

Tier Seven: DeAngelo Williams, Ricky Williams, Chris Perry, Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Julius Jones, Justin Fargas, Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris

Shaky starters, promising backups, and some players in between. The situations in Cincy, Carolina, and Detroit remain up for grabs. Kevin Smith and Chris Perry are the favorites, but are no locks to keep their jobs or stay healthy for long. Committees look likely. DeAngelo Williams may open the year as a starter in Carolina, but probably won't play in the red zone and is likely to lose his job. Bradshaw could be the most dynamic committee back in the league. Fargas was a perfect fit for Oakland's scheme and may be ignored in drafts this year. Felix Jones is a dynamic third-down back at worst. Julius Jones is set up for a rebound in Seattle, but has looked like an average talent. He will probably spend the year splitting carries with Morris, who is undervalued. Ricky is a boom-or-bust pick that should be productive until gets hurt.

RB4s are ultimately reserves, so be careful of reaching too early for risky picks. They should start going off the board halfway through a 12-team draft. Pick a player or two that you feel is undervalued to build your depth. Ideally, you'd draft four backs from the first seven tiers.

Tier Eight: Ray Rice, Jerious Norwood, Kenny Watson, Pierre Thomas, Steve Slaton

For the most part, these are high upside backups and third-down backs. Rice has earned a big role in Baltimore with an impressive rookie off-season. He could play more early with Willis McGahee banged up. Slaton is the only person guaranteed a role in Houston's backfield and could wind up leading the team in carries. Thomas has extra value as a backup on a high-octane offense. Norwood continues to be limited by his situation in Atlanta, but he's very talented.

Tier Nine: Fred Jackson, Ladell Betts, Rudi Johnson, Tim Hightower, Andre Hall, Dominic Rhodes, LaMont Jordan, Chris Brown, Kevin Jones, Ahman Green, Warrick Dunn, Derrick Ward, Leon Washington, Jason Wright, Chris Taylor, Brandon Jackson, Tatum Bell

The best of the remaining draftable players and handcuffs to attach to your starters. Of this group, Hightower, Green, and Jordan have the most potential to emerge with a bigger role. Hall and Rhodes are intriguing because they are an injury away on explosive offenses. Hightower is already a goal-line back and will push for a much larger role as the season moves ahead. Jackson is a good handcuff for Ryan Grant. Rhodes is a must-have for Joseph Addai owners. Rudi and Chris Brown could be cut this weekend.

Tier Ten: Deuce McAllister, Michael Bush, Jamaal Charles, Correll Buckhalter, Chris Taylor, Lorenzo Booker, Jacob Hester, Sammy Morris, DeShaun Foster, Brian Calhoun, Kolby Smith, Adrian Peterson (CHI), Kevin Faulk

Mostly reserves here with questionable roles, but they are all on the fantasy radar. McAllister has the chance for a big role, but any success would be going against all medical precedent after dual ACL and microfracture surgeries in the off-season. Watch our news closely to see what develops with all the borderline cases

[Hache Man]

Starting With Warner, Perry
Hello. My name is Aaron Gleeman and I've spent the past five months penning the baseball version of this column. Around this same time each year, as football season draws near and baseball season begins winding down, Gregg Rosenthal flashes Rotoworld's version of the Bat-signal, illuminating the night sky above my palatial, Bruce Wayne-like estate with the letters "N-F-L."

That's the cue to fire up my version of the Bat-mobile—a blue '94 Pontiac Grand Am boasting 98,000 miles and the constant smell of Chinese takeout—and drive around the block a few times. Once that's out of my system, the baseball Daily Dose gets handed off to someone else and you get stuck looking at my ugly mug here for the next five months. It's actually not all that exciting, but it works for us.

Each weekday from now until January this will be the place to stay up to speed on the NFL's latest news, notes, and injuries. If you promise to keep reading, I'll promise never to make another stupid Batman reference that has nothing to do with football or this column. Deal? As you ponder that agreement while trying not to think of me in the Bat-suit, here are some notes from around football …

* Last week Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that Kurt Warner would start the Cardinals' season opener, which raised Ken Whisenhunt's dander and led to the coach sarcastically musing: "It seems like Mortensen is making the decision on our quarterback … nothing has changed." Of course, he hadn't actually named a starter at that point, so no one knew what the "nothing" was that hadn't changed.

It turns out that Mortensen was right, as Arizona announced Sunday that Warner will indeed start Week 1. Warner is a decent bet to get hurt in any given game, so Matt Leinart can still be counted on to see major action this year. However, two disappointing, injury filled seasons after making him the 10th pick in the draft the Cardinals have little confidence left in Leinart now or in the future. www.arizonacardinals.ws

After all, if they still felt great about his long-term outlook they'd have handed the 25-year-old the gig rather than making him compete with and ultimately lose to a 37-year-old. With that said, Warner is anything but the average 37-year-old and it's tough to blame the Cardinals for their decision. There's a very good chance that Warner represents the team's best odds of winning right now.

Plus, there's zero doubt that Warner possess more fantasy potential. In fact, he's now a legit QB1 option. In starting the final 10 games last year he completed 62 percent of his throws while averaging 282 yards and 2.3 touchdowns. No one can be counted on to duplicate that, but Warner remains capable of putting up some huge numbers with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald as weapons.

* Following weeks of speculation about what the Bengals had planned for Rudi Johnson, the team provided a somewhat surprising answer by releasing him Saturday. After averaging 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns from 2004-2006, Johnson limped through last season while missing significant time with lingering hamstring problems and averaged a measly 2.9 yards per carry.

By cutting Johnson loose the Bengals saved about $3.5 million while turning the starting job over to Chris Perry, who missed all of last year and hasn't played a regular-season game in 21 months. Perry has a grand total of just 73 carries since being a first-round pick in 2004, but if he can ever stay healthy the former Michigan star has the skills necessary to become a three-down running back.

Within a small sample of work as a runner he's averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career and he ranked third on the team with 51 catches 2005, which was his lone healthy season. He'll face competition for carries from Kenny Watson and DeDe Dorsey, but coach Marvin Lewis made it clear Saturday that Perry is atop the depth chart, saying: "He's never had that opportunity, so this is his chance."

If he can somehow stay healthy Perry is a RB2 option with added PPR value. As for Johnson, in one season he's gone from being among the league's most productive starters to scrambling for work as a backup despite being "only" 28 years old. He's reportedly already scheduled to visit the Lions and will get calls from other interested teams, but don't expect more than a very modest revival.

* In breaking down the Raiders' crowded backfield of Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush, the Oakland Tribune suggested that coach Lane Kiffin "has dreams of the three-headed monster" totaling "close to 600 rushing attempts" this season. Between JaMarcus Russell and a shaky receiving corps it would certainly make sense for the Raiders to run a ton, but 600 is a ton-plus.

Oakland ranked third in the NFL with 508 carries last year and Tennessee led at 543. So far this decade only Pittsburgh in 2004 cracked 600 carries, and along with that 618-carry Steelers squad the Ravens in 2003 (552) and Steelers again in 2001 (580) are the only teams to top 550 carries in the past eight seasons. There'll be plenty of carries to go around in Oakland, but there won't be 600.

Two-Minute Drill: If it wasn't already, Travis Henry's career is likely over now that he's been suspended for at least one season for violating the league's substance abuse policy … With the cap space cleared by cutting Johnson, Willie Anderson, and Deltha O'Neal, the Bengals will likely talk contract extension with impending free agent T.J. Houshmandzadeh … Let go by Tampa Bay over the weekend, speculation has Chris Simms landing in Baltimore … Hard Knocks star Danny Amendola will start out on the practice squad, but the Cowboys' rash of receiver injuries may force him into game action … With Steve Smith suspended, backup tight end Dante Rosario may see an increased role in Carolina's passing game early on … After leading the NFL in preseason rushing, the Ravens cut Marcus Mason before adding him to the practice squad Sunday … Claimed off waivers from the Chargers, fifth-round pick Marcus Thomas becomes the Lions' third running back behind fellow rookie Kevin Smith and Tatum Bell … After being waived, Darius Walker stayed with the Texans by joining the practice squad and could see future action in what's a pretty shaky backfield.

Red Zone: Sam Hurd is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with the dreaded high-ankle sprain, increasing Jason Witten's already massive role in the Cowboys' passing game … Trent Edwards (quadriceps) practiced fully Sunday and looks ready to start against the Seahawks in Week 1 … There's still no timetable for Kevin Curtis' (hernia) return, but according to general manager Tom Heckert he "feels great" and is "ahead of schedule" … Jerry Porter (hamstring) returned from the PUP list Sunday, but isn't expected to play in Week 1 … Wes Welker (ribs) returned to practice Sunday, seemingly making it likely that he'll suit up against the Chiefs … Ryan Torain (elbow) avoided injured reserve over the weekend, making a midseason debut possible for the intriguing fifth-round rookie … Amid speculation that he might be done for the season, general manager Phil Savage said Saturday that Joe Jurevicius (knee) will be "back at some point during the year" … Antwaan Randle El plans to play through a broken bone in his left hand while wearing a protective brace, but the injury wipes away most of his already limited fantasy potential.

[Hache Man]

Rudi Resurfaces in Detroit
Cut loose by the Bengals over the weekend, Rudi Johnson landed in what may be the best possible destination for him Monday when he signed a one-year deal with the Lions. In a corresponding move Detroit released veteran disappointment Tatum Bell, meaning that Johnson immediately becomes the team's No. 2 back behind rookie third-round pick Kevin Smith.
www.detroitlions.ws
While the Lions seem committed to Smith as the starter, if he struggles or wears down following a ridiculous college workload it's easy to see Johnson emerging with significant playing time. Of course, as awful as he looked last year there's no guarantee that he'd actually be a fantasy asset even with a bunch of snaps. For now he's a borderline RB3 who's worth stashing in nearly every league.

While Johnson hopes the Lions can do for his sagging career what the Browns did for Jamal Lewis last season, here are some other notes from around football …

* Thanks to Kyle Boller's shoulder injury, Troy Smith looked to be on the verge of claiming the Ravens' starting job before tonsillitis knocked him completely out of the picture. He was scratched from the team's final two preseason games and had to be hospitalized last week after struggling just to eat for several days. Not surprisingly, coach John Harbaugh named rookie Joe Flacco the starter Monday.

Flacco was the 19th overall pick in April's draft after the Ravens traded up to get him, but figures to be plenty rough around the edges due to playing against sub par collegiate competition at Delaware. His odds of thriving immediately are slim, so Smith may get another chance to grab hold of the job, but the illness couldn't possibly have come at a worse time and could have a huge impact on his career.

Flacco will make his debut at home against the Bengals before getting the Texans on the road and the Browns back at home. None of those three matchups are especially daunting, but Flacco should still be firmly planted on fantasy benches. He's an intriguing long-term prospect with a high ceiling and should learn plenty under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, but don't expect much this season.

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* Meanwhile, it remains unclear whether Willis McGahee will be taking handoffs from Flacco in Week 1. McGahee is making his way back from knee surgery and practiced Monday, but Harbaugh noted afterward that he "wouldn't say he's 100 percent just watching him run around out there." Healthy or not McGahee figured to lose touches to rookie Ray Rice, so the duo may be splitting snaps Sunday.www.baltimoreravens.ws

* Shortly after reports surfaced that he'll start the Dolphins' season opener over Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams agreed to a one-year contract extension that has a few interesting fantasy angles. A healthy and productive season from Williams could have set him up to potentially cash in big on the open market, which is why it's surprising that he agreed to a deal that apparently didn't include a bonus. www.miamidolphins.ws

Instead he's said to be getting a significant jump in salary for this season, which while nice pales in comparison to guaranteed money for next year given that he hasn't been healthy and productive since 2003. Not only could he have possibly jumped ship for a big contract following the season, Williams could have found a team willing to hand him a clear-cut starting job.

Rather than playing the year out to maybe end up with a big deal and his own starting gig, he'll commit to Miami for relatively little money and keep fighting for snaps with Brown. All of which not only impacts Williams' future value, but also makes it increasingly difficult for Brown to reestablish himself as an every-down back. It's not great news for either player's fantasy value, but Miami did well.

And in far more interesting Ricky news … well, just read this. Seriously, read it.

Two-Minute Drill: Despite missing the entire preseason while holding out, coach Scott Linehan indicated Monday that Steven Jackson will get a full workload in Week 1 … General manager Phil Savage laid out the Browns' plan at running back Sunday, saying that Jason Wright will be the team's third-down back and Jerome Harrison will only see major action if Jamal Lewis gets hurt … For now at least, Derrick Ward is listed ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw on the Giants' running back depth chart behind starter Brandon Jacobs … Cut by the Patriots, former first-round pick Chad Jackson is scheduled for a tryout with the receiver-starved Raiders, who signed Ashley Lelie to a one-year deal Monday … Matt Flynn and not Brian Brohm will open the season as Aaron Rodgers' backup … Reports that rookie Devin Thomas has been slow to grasp the Redskins' playbook make it unlikely that the second rounder will be a fantasy factor before midseason … Not only did Andre Woodson fall to the sixth round after being projected by some as a first-round pick heading into last year, he cleared waivers after being cut loose by the Giants and has been added to the practice squad.

Red Zone: Chad Johnson returned to practice Monday and declared his injured shoulder "100 percent" healthy while babbling about various other things … Matt Hasselbeck (back) returned to practice Monday and announced that he's "ready to go" for Week 1 … Braylon Edwards (foot) and Derek Anderson (concussion) both practiced fully Monday and should be ready for a Week 1 shootout with the Cowboys … Despite lingering ankle concerns, Plaxico Burress is absent from the Giants' injury report and has a favorable matchup Thursday night against the Redskins … Jerry Porter (hamstring) practiced fully Monday, but coach Jack Del Rio shied away from saying whether or not he'll play in Week 1 … Despite weeks worth of speculation about his mysterious foot injury, Tom Brady said Monday that "there's no question" he'll start the Patriots' season opener … Following the decision to put off surgery to repair his separated shoulder, Isaiah Stanback will open the season as the Cowboys' third wide receiver … After sitting out practice Monday, James Jones (knee) looks unlikely to suit up this week.

[Hache Man]

Last-Minute Gems
Ah, early September. Labor Day weekend hangovers still haunt you, the Caribbean is lousy with hurricanes, and most fantasy league drafts have finished up. After months of conjecture, hype, and tea-leaf reading, it's time to separate fraud from fantasy stud. More importantly, it's time to scan the waiver wire for that last-minute gem to round out your fantasy squad in preparation for Sunday's opener.

And by all means, if yours is one of the leagues that still has Titans rookie playmaker Chris Johnson on the waiver wire, run – do not walk – to the wire and pick him up pronto. I've been steering the Chris Johnson hype train throughout the summer, and it remains on track: this kid is electric, and he's going to blow the doors off the NFL early in the season. Get on board while you still can.

***

This is the first Waiver Wired of the season, so let's review the rules established by Gregg Rosenthal last year:

Every Tuesday, I'll go over the best available pickups at every fantasy position except kicker. Every league setup is different, so I'll try to include players who may be available in shallow leagues, and lesser-known players that are worth trying in deep leagues. I give a recommendation for each player, such as "Should be owned in 12-team leagues." This doesn't mean you should own him, just that he's good enough to improve one of the rosters in your league. If I write, "Must be owned," or "Should be owned in all leagues," I'm recommending doing what you can to find a spot. Let's get to the players.

***

Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass.


Quarterbacks

Kurt Warner, Cardinals
Amazingly, Warner is still unowned in about half of all fantasy leagues despite the recent announcement that he beat out Matt Leinart for the starting job.

With Larry Fitzgerald and an often-banged up Anquan Boldin, Warner tossed 27 touchdowns in just over 13 games last season. He closed out the season with three-straight 3-touchdown performances and an average of over 300 yards in the last four games.

Sure, he's an injury risk and a slippery-mitted statue in the pocket, but enjoy the ride while it lasts. Warner is a legit asset at starting quarterback for fantasy leaguers and no longer belongs on the waiver wire in any league.

Recommendation: Must be owned in all leagues

J.T. O'Sullivan, 49ers
Straight from a Mike Martz casting call, JTO has a pedigree similar to former Mad Mike rags-to-riches success stories Kurt Warner and Jon Kitna. He wasn't given much of a chance to start at the beginning of camp, but he drastically outplayed holdovers Alex Smith and Shaun Hill as soon as he got under center.

O'Sullivan isn't a quarterback to invest in heavily, but he makes for a fun dice roll as a QB2 who could thrive under Martz's system or crash back to earth and lose his job by Week 4.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Brady Quinn, Browns
Derek Anderson returned to practice Monday and the Browns say he will play Sunday against the Cowboys, but there have been rumblings that his concussion was more troublesome than first believed.

Quinn would take over a high-scoring offense should Anderson have any setbacks over the next couple of weeks. There remains a possibility that Quinn could begin to see playing time later in the year should the Anderson-led Browns stumble through a tough schedule.

Recommendation: Worth monitoring in 12-team leagues

Joe Flacco, Ravens
Troy Smith's tonsillitis has led the Ravens to push the rookie into the starting role in Week 1. He's been overwhelmed for the most part, but Flacco clearly has a cannon arm and exciting potential. The team may go back to Smith when healthy, so Flacco is only an option in dynasty and two quarterback leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in two quarterback leagues

Running Backs

Ray Rice, Ravens
Despite Willis McGahee's preseason knee scope, his handcuff is owned in just a third of all fantasy leagues. The Baltimore Sun has questioned McGahee's commitment level and has even gone as far as to suggest that he could be cut before the season is through. Meanwhile, Rice has received an inordinate amount of praise since camp began.

The best reason to pick up Rice, though, is the possibility of a Week 1 start against an always inviting Bengals rush defense. McGahee returned to practice Monday, but he's a long way from being in football shape. If he's unable to go against the Bengals, Rice makes for a very nice RB2 this Sunday.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Maurice Morris, Seahawks
Julius Jones is owned in 75 percent of all leagues while Maurice Morris is hovering around 20 percent. It's been widely assumed since Jones' signing in Seattle that he would get a chance to take the job and run with it early in the season. The reality, however, is that coach Mike Holmgren has consistently name-dropped Morris whenever the subject has come up.

This has the makings of a committee attack, but Morris remains number one on the depth chart and is the favorite to start Week 1 versus the Bills.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Rudi Johnson, Lions
Rudi has been dropped or undrafted in quite a few leagues. After signing with the Lions, he's behind only rookie Kevin Smith for carries. Don't go crazy about projections coming off a 2.9 yards per carry season and moving to a team with a poor offensive line, but Rudi is worth carrying to see just what his role will be in Motown.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Tim Hightower, Cardinals
Already the favorite for goal-line work, the rookie Hightower has also been projected to eat into Edgerrin James' workload throughout the season. And let's face it: second in line behind a 30-year-old back with almost 3,000 career carries is a nice to place to be. Just ask Shaun Alexander how quickly age and a heavy usage pattern can change the backfield picture.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Pierre Thomas, Saints
Speaking of being second in line behind an older, injury-prone running back, Thomas is in a plum situation with the Saints high-flying offense. It's no secret that soon-to-be thirtysomething running back Deuce McAllister is coming off a second ACL surgery and an additional microfracture surgery.

Thomas' impressive 226 total yards in Week 17 last season is proof that he can contribute in both the running game and the passing game if Deuce is too rickety for a consistent role.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Steve Slaton / Chris Taylor, Texans
With Ahman Green returning from a groin injury, the Texans are expected to give both Slaton and Taylor extra work early in the season. Slaton has been getting most of the hype here, but he's also coming off a minor turf toe injury.

The coaches have yet to decide who will be first off the bench behind Green, so we will know more after the first game. Taylor is the more powerful runner of the two while Slaton is faster and more of an asset in the passing game.

Recommendation: Both should be owned in deeper leagues, but monitor the situation this week in practice

Andre Hall, Broncos
An obvious Selvin Young handcuff and a not-so-obvious touchdown vulture, Hall is unowned in the majority of fantasy leagues.

With the whims of Mike Shanahan, the No. 2 back in Denver is never a bad roster stash. Throw in Selvin Young's injury history, and Hall gets even more intriguing. His one start last season produced 167 total yards and a touchdown.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Wide Receivers

DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Even before Kevin Curtis' sports hernia surgery, Jackson was slated for a significant role in the Eagles offense. The buzz from Philly's camp has been strong all summer, and Jackson has been ever-present in the passing game.

Coach Andy Reid's decision to hold him out the final preseason game along with the other important starters speaks volumes about his value to the team. He should be targeted out of the slot early and often.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Courtney Taylor, Seahawks
The Seahawks are a very flanker-friendly offense, and Taylor is the likely Week 1 starter opposite Nate Burleson. Noted for his precise route running, good hands, and penchant for moving the chains, the 2006 sixth-rounder has the upside of a high-target possession receiver.

With Bobby Engram out and Deion Branch a poor bet for early season contributions, Taylor could be a savvy plug-in for Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith owners.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Mark Clayton, Ravens
It's tough to imagine now, but Clayton was ranked as a surefire Top-25 receiver going into last season. Battling through injuries to his foot, calf, head, and back, the expected breakout receiver just couldn't get anything going in 2007.

New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron promises to be more creative than Brian Billick, but the Baltimore quarterback morass and Clayton's lost season have scared owners away. He hasn't lost the talent, however, and has the look of a classic post-hype sleeper.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Matt Jones, Jaguars
Jones went from December star in 2006 to a complete afterthought by Week 1 of 2007. We now know that a large part of the problem was that Jones lacked commitment and didn't even know the plays last season.

His arrest for cocaine possession earlier this summer may have served as a wake-up call as he's been the Jags best receiver throughout the preseason and has a shot to start the opener. Jones' Week 17 performance of eight catches for 138 yards and a touchdown to close out last season shows that he has the ability to put up numbers if he can work his way into a prominent role.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Eddie Royal, Broncos
The rookie out of Virginia Tech went from fifth receiver and probable punt returner to starter opposite Brandon Marshall by the time camp was over. Coach Mike Shanahan has been effusive in his praise of the precocious Royal and backed up the hype by moving him up the depth chart. He's an especially nice target in return-yardage leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Josh Morgan, 49ers
Morgan isn't guaranteed to start over veteran Bryant Johnson, but it remains a strong possibility. The sixth-rounder has been the star of the Niners preseason and has a physical style that calls to mind the play of recent impact rookies such as Marques Colston and Anquan Boldin.

Recommendation: Monitor this week, but worth owning in deep leagues

Tight Ends

Zach Miller, Raiders
In spite of his obvious rapport with greenhorn quarterback JaMarcus Russell, Miller is only owned about a third of all leagues. In Russell's Week 17 start last season he hooked up with Miller eight times for 84 yards, and the two have picked up where they left off this preseason.

With an underwhelming wide receiver crew, expect Miller to continue to be Russell's go-to option in the offense.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Ben Utecht, Bengals
Chris Henry's four-game suspension leaves the Bengals without an obvious third option in the passing game. Utecht will fill that void as the franchise's first legit receiving tight end of the Carson Palmer / Marvin Lewis era.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Randy McMichael, Rams
McMichael's disappointing 2007 has soured many fantasy owners on his potential as a TE2, but he's expected to play a bigger role in the passing game this season. It's no secret that new offensive coordinator Al Saunders intends to utilize McMichael heavily as he has previously for his eight straight pro bowl tight ends.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
A Bill Parcells favorite and former second-round pick, Fasano in a great fit as Chad Pennington's safety blanket in Dan Henning's offense. A beat writer's projection of 600 yards and 6-8 touchdowns is overly optimistic, but Fasano does have a chance for TE2 production.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Team Defense
Bengals
The Bengals are nobody's idea of a good defense, and their return game options are as mediocre as any in the league. However, they make for an intriguing Week 1 match-up play against the Ravens and raw rookie Joe Flacco.

[Hache Man]

Seahawks Grounded?
While you do yourself a favor and read this story about Tatum Bell's apparent insanity, here are some notes from around football …

* Shaun Alexander's collapse caused the Seahawks to ditch the running game often last year on the way to ranking second in the NFL behind only the Saints with 37 throws per game, but general manager Tim Ruskell said Tuesday that things will be different this season. "It's too hard to make a living off the pass like we did last year," Ruskell said. "That would just be too hard."

Mike Holmgren has a pass-heavy reputation because he coached quarterbacks in San Francisco and had Brett Favre at his disposal in Green Bay, but Seattle ranked just 22nd, 19th, 27th, 7th, 13th, 14th, 23rd, and 18th in pass attempts in his first eight seasons at the helm. That all changed last season because they simply couldn't run the ball, but the ground game should be improved this year.

Maurice Morris and Julius Jones literally alternated first-team reps at practice Monday, which obviously suggests that they'll begin the season splitting snaps. "It really is going to be a committee thing," fullback Leonard Weaver said. "But that's one thing I can say about all of us, we're unselfish. Whoever gets the start, who cares?"

Gregg Rosenthal & The Gang are constantly updating the Rotoworld Draft Guide projections, which currently predict 189 touches for Jones and 182 touches for Morris. That workload distribution may be best for the Seahawks, but would keep both guys from being more than mediocre RB3 or FLEX options. Beyond that, a return to balance offensively would leave Matt Hasselbeck as a low-level QB1.

* A month ago the Broncos' tight end depth chart had Tony Scheffler behind both Daniel Graham and Nate Jackson, but his stint in the quasi-doghouse now appears to be over. A new version of the depth chart was released Tuesday and Scheffler is back at the top where he belongs, which while perhaps little more than a formality should provide some relief for his fantasy owners.

Graham is essentially a sixth offensive lineman and despite being an ex-wideout even Jackson is a better blocker than Scheffler, which no doubt played a major part in his temporary demotion. However, few tight ends possess more potential in the passing game than Scheffler, who as a sophomore last season emerged as an elite fantasy tight end down the stretch.

He ranked second on the team in catches (49) and touchdowns (5) while placing third in yards (549), and did so despite not catching his first pass of the year until Week 5. If his numbers over the final dozen games last season are prorated to a full, 16-game workload he'd have 730 yards and seven touchdowns on 65 grabs. If healthy, Scheffler is a clear TE1 capable of matching those prorated stats.

* Mixed in between the usual Brett Favre worship and coffee-related tales, Peter King's recent SI.com column had an interesting note about inflated tackle totals. According to King (by way of Dallas Morning News columnist Rick Gosselin), the Colts' coaching staff credited their defense with a league-high 1,416 tackles last year, which works out to 1.81 tackles per defensive snap that involved a tackle.

My immediate reaction is that perhaps the Colts' typically porous run defense would be a little better if they didn't need 1.81 players to make every tackle. But wait, it gets even more ridiculous. Colts defenders were credited with 891 "solo" tackles on the 781 snaps that involved a tackle, which seems to suggest that not everyone has a firm grasp of what "solo" means.

Indianapolis' tackle-inflating ways are enough to make Deion Sanders ponder a comeback, but they're hardly alone. Ex-teammates and media members criticize Ray Lewis for padding his stops by jumping on piles and each week newspapers are filled with reports about teams "reviewing film" and "discovering" that their big-name linebacker really made 17 tackles instead of his NFL-credited 11.

Two-Minute Drill: Fresh off a one-year contract extension, Ricky Williams took a break from his pre-med studies to announce Tuesday that he wants to finish his career in Miami … 49ers air-traffic controller Mike Martz indicated Tuesday that Bryant Johnson will start over rookie Josh Morgan in Week 1 … John Clayton of ESPN reports that Bills left tackle Jason Peters isn't close to ending his holdout, but that may change once he begins losing weekly game checks in addition to being fined $15,000 per day … After working out Chris Simms, Joey Harrington, and Todd Bouman the Ravens have apparently decided to sign the 36-year-old career backup who hasn't played a game since 2005, which probably isn't great news for the other two guys … Meanwhile, Harrington is reportedly scheduled for a visit with the Saints … Seemingly happy with Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm, general manager Ted Thompson said Tuesday that he's "not even thinking about" adding a veteran backup for Aaron Rodgers … Olindo Mare beat out rookie Brandon Coutu to be Seattle's primary kicker, but both players remain on the Seahawks' roster.

Red Zone: Jaguars reserve offensive lineman Richard Collier was shot outside a nightclub early Tuesday morning and is in critical condition … Tarvaris Jackson (knee) practiced Tuesday and said afterward that he'll be ready to start Monday night against the Packers … Ryan Grant (hamstring) sat out Tuesday's practice after getting zero carries in the Packers' preseason finale, but he's seemingly in no danger of missing Monday night's matchup with the Vikings … D.J. Hackett (toe) is slated to return to practice Wednesday and with Steve Smith suspended figures to start alongside Muhsin Muhammad in Week 1 … Troy Smith has been released from the hospital after losing 20 pounds and the Ravens' starting job while battling a tonsil infection … Donnie Avery (knee) didn't dress for Monday's practice and the rookie sounds unlikely to play Sunday … Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeil (neck) is not expected to play Sunday, which is good news for Julius Peppers and the Panthers … Jason Taylor (knee) returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday, with coach Jim Zorn guessing afterward that he's "50-50" to play Thursday night and won't get a full workload even if he does suit up

[Hache Man]

Week 1 Rankings
Redskins/Giants isn't most glamorous opening matchup the NFL has ever served up, but who cares? The first of 256 regular season games is worthy of thanks and celebration. The first Opening Night I'm not giddy for will be the night I quit. And I'm not leaving this gig until Rotoworld Grand Poobah Rick Cordella locks the company doors on me ala Steve McNair or offers me the Brett Favre Stay Retired and Like it Package.

Thursday's game allows us to focus sharply on two teams before Sunday's head-spinning insanity. The key offensive players are almost identical to last season, but the teams in drastically different situations. While Eli Manning enjoys an underrated offensive line and improving weapons, Jason Campbell is struggling to learn another new offense. His receiver depth has failed to improve because Washington will get nothing Thursday from their high-drafted rookies. New coach Jim Zorn forced to rely heavily on Clinton Portis stabilize the offense. It's like Joe Gibbs never left.

***

Due to popular demand, the Week 1 rankings are posting early because of the Thursday night opener. As always, Season Pass subscribers have access to detailed weekly stat projections for every player listed. Our Rotoworld Oracle uses those projections and your scoring system and lineup requirement to make weekly lineup suggestions. We also crank out exclusive weekly columns, stat tools, game picks, IDP help, top 200 ranks, and much more. It's like hiring an assistant GM without having to talk to someone.

I've made comments on the Giants/Redskins tilt below, but the rest of the Week 1 notes will come later in the week. An updated set of rankings after the Friday injury report comes out.

Week 1 Quarterbacks

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Tom Brady	vs. KC	Fully expected to play
2	Tony Romo	at CLE	-
3	Donovan McNabb	vs. STL	-
4	Peyton Manning	vs. CHI	Bears are bigger concern than knee
5	Drew Brees	vs. TB	-
6	Ben Roethlisberger	vs. HOU	-
7	Carson Palmer	at BAL	-
8	Derek Anderson	vs. DAL	Will start
9	Kurt Warner	at SF	-
10	Matt Hasselbeck	at BUF
11	Eli Manning	vs. WAS	-
12	Jay Cutler	at OAK	No Brandon Marshall
13	Matt Schaub	at PIT	-
14	Jon Kitna	at ATL	-
15	Aaron Rodgers	vs. MIN	-
16	David Garrard	at TEN	-
17	Marc Bulger	at PHI	-
18	Brett Favre	at MIA	-
19	Vince Young	vs. JAC	-
20	J.T. O'Sullivan	vs. ARZ	-
21	Jason Campbell	at NYG	-
22	Jeff Garcia	at NO	-
23	Jake Delhomme	at SD	-
24	Philip Rivers	vs. CAR	-
25	Trent Edwards	vs. SEA	-
26	Tarvaris Jackson	at GB	Expected to start
27	Chad Pennington	vs. NYJ	-
28	JaMarcus Russell	vs. DEN	-
29	Matt Ryan	vs. DET	-
30	Kyle Orton	at IND	-
31	Brodie Croyle	at NE	-
32	Joe Flacco	vs. CIN	-

QB Notes: The Redskins may struggle to apply pressure on Eli Manning with their front seven. Losing defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was a huge blow. Jason Taylor may not be ready, and their defensive line is average at best. With time to throw, Manning's receivers can win one-on-one battles against Washington's man coverage. … Washington's offensive line is healthier than last season, although they are benching stalwart Jon Jansen. Look for Campbell to get the ball out of his hands faster than last year, concentrating on shorter routes. The question is whether his smurfish group of receivers fit this system of slants. It could take a while to get the timing down; I'd expect mediocre numbers on Thursday.

Discuss your rankings and your lineup decisions in the Rotoworld football forums.

Week 1 Running Backs

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	vs. CAR	-
2	Adrian Peterson	at GB	-
3	Brian Westbrook	vs. STL	-
4	Steven Jackson	at PHI	-
5	Frank Gore	vs. ARZ	-
6	Marshawn Lynch	vs. SEA	-
7	Marion Barber	at CLE	-
8	Joseph Addai	vs. CHI	-
9	Clinton Portis	at NYG	-
10	Brandon Jacobs	vs. WAS	-
11	Selvin Young	at OAK	-
12	Ryan Grant	vs. MIN	Keep an eye on (hamstring)
13	Larry Johnson	at NE	-
14	Laurence Maroney	vs. KC	-
15	Michael Turner	vs. DET	-
16	Maurice Jones-Drew	at TEN	-
17	Jamal Lewis	vs. DAL	Keep an eye on
18	Reggie Bush	vs. TB	-
19	Thomas Jones	at MIA	-
20	Earnest Graham	at NO	-
21	Matt Forte	at IND	-
22	Darren McFadden	vs. DEN	-
23	Chris Perry	at BAL	-
24	Willis McGahee	vs. CIN	Reduced workload?
25	LenDale White	vs. JAC	-
26	Willie Parker	vs. HOU	-
27	Jonathan Stewart	at SD	-
28	DeAngelo Williams	at SD	-
29	Edgerrin James	at SF	-
30	Justin Fargas	vs. DEN	-
31	Ricky Williams	vs. NYJ	-
32	Chris Johnson	vs. JAC	-
33	Ronnie Brown	vs. NYJ	-
34	Kevin Smith	at ATL	-
35	Fred Taylor	at TEN	-
36	Maurice Morris	at BUF	-
37	Ray Rice	vs. CIN	-
38	Rashard Mendenhall	vs. HOU	-
39	Julius Jones	at BUF	-
40	Steve Slaton	at PIT	-
41	Ahman Green	at PIT	-
42	Kenny Watson	at BAL	-
43	Chester Taylor	at GB	-
44	Felix Jones	at CLE	-
45	Ahmad Bradshaw	vs. WAS
46	Jerious Norwood	vs. DET	-
47	Rudi Johnson	at ATL	-
48	Andre Hall	at OAK	-
49	Tim Hightower	at SF	-
50	Fred Jackson	vs. SEA	-
51	Sammy Morris	vs. KC	-
52	Warrick Dunn	at NO	-
53	Chris Taylor	at PIT	-
54	Brandon Jackson	vs. MIN	-
55	Ladell Betts	at NYG	-
56	Dominic Rhodes	vs. CHI	-
57	Pierre Thomas	vs. TB	-
58	DeShaun Foster	vs. ARZ	-
59	Kevin Jones	at IND	-
60	Deuce McAllister	vs. TB	-

RB Notes: There has been a lot of speculation about how the Giants backfield will be used this season. While Derrick Ward and Ahman Bradshaw's roles are to be determined, it's safe to pencil in 15-20 carries from Brandon Jacobs. Since he's always a good bet to score, the train cannot be benched. I still expect Bradshaw to have plenty of stand alone value as a fantasy reserve. … The Redskins plan to keep Clinton Portis on the field as much as Joe Gibbs did, if not more. Ladell Betts is a true backup, not a committee partner.

Week 1 Wide Receivers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Randy Moss	vs. KC	-
2	Terrell Owens	at CLE	-
3	Andre Johnson	at PIT	-
4	Braylon Edwards	vs. DAL	-
5	Larry Fitzgerald	at SF	-
6	Reggie Wayne	vs. CHI	-
7	Marques Colston	vs. TB	-
8	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	at BAL	-
9	Torry Holt	at PHI	-
10	Anquan Boldin	at SF	-
11	Chad Johnson	at BAL	Fully expected to start
12	Roy Williams	at ATL	-
13	Santonio Holmes	vs. HOU	-
14	Plaxico Burress	vs. WAS	-
15	Jerricho Cotchery	at MIA	-
16	Wes Welker	vs. KC	-
17	Marvin Harrison	vs. CHI	-
18	Calvin Johnson	at ATL	-
19	Greg Jennings	vs. MIN	-
20	Lee Evans	vs. SEA	-
21	Dwayne Bowe	at NE	-
22	Roddy White	vs. DET	-
23	Laveranues Coles	at MIA
24	Joey Galloway	at NO
25	Donald Driver	vs. MIN	-
26	Santana Moss	at NYG	-
27	Antonio Bryant	at NO	New starter
28	Chris Chambers	vs. CAR	-
29	Hines Ward	vs. HOU	-
30	Patrick Crayton	at CLE	-
31	Vincent Jackson	vs. CAR	-
32	Bernard Berrian	at GB	-
33	Ronald Curry	vs. DEN	-
34	Reggie Brown	vs. STL	Looks like he'll play
35	Donte' Stallworth	vs. DAL	-
36	Drew Bennett	at PHI	-
37	D.J. Hackett	at SD	-
38	Jerry Porter	at TEN	Status Uncertain
39	Anthony Gonzalez	vs. CHI	-
40	Nate Burleson	at BUF	-
41	Courtney Taylor	at BUF	-
42	Isaac Bruce	vs. ARZ	-
43	Javon Walker	vs. DEN	-
44	Sidney Rice	at GB	-
45	Kevin Walter	at PIT	-
46	Amani Toomer	vs. WAS	-
47	Eddie Royal	at OAK	-
48	Darrell Jackson	at OAK	Last chance to start?
49	Mark Clayton	vs. CIN	The Flacco effect
50	David Patten	vs. TB	-
51	Ted Ginn Jr.	vs. NYJ	-
52	Justin Gage	vs. JAC	-
53	Bryant Johnson	vs. ARZ	-
54	Derrick Mason	vs. CIN	-
55	DeSean Jackson	vs. STL	-
56	Josh Morgan	vs. ARZ	-
57	Arnaz Battle	vs. ARZ	-
58	Reggie Williams	at TEN
59	Hank Baskett	vs. STL	-
60	Muhsin Muhammad	at SD	-
61	Rashied Davis	at IND	-
62	Jabar Gaffney	vs. KC	-

WR Notes: The Redskins put a lot of pressure on their cornerbacks to play man coverage. If they can't generate pressure, the Giants could expose them. Still, it's hard to pick Amani Toomer or Steve Smith. The team will go four wide and get tight end Kevin Boss involved, so the pie is split up too many ways. Plaxico Burress is an every-week play until proven otherwise. … Santana Moss will play flanker this season, which should increase the amount of short passes he says. While that should help his consistency, it also increases his chance for injury. He could really use some development from the young Washington receivers to take pressure off.

Week 1 Tight Ends

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Jason Witten	at CLE	-
2	Kellen Winslow	vs. DAL	-
3	Antonio Gates	vs. CAR	Expected to start
4	Tony Gonzalez	at NE	-
5	Jeremy Shockey	vs. TB	-
6	Chris Cooley	at NYG	-
7	Vernon Davis	vs. ARZ	-
8	Owen Daniels	at PIT	-
9	Dallas Clark	vs. CHI	-
10	Tony Scheffler	at OAK	-
11	Todd Heap	vs. CIN	-
12	Heath Miller	vs. HOU	-
13	Zach Miller	vs. DEN	-
14	Greg Olsen	at IND	-
15	Alge Crumpler	vs. JAC	-
16	L.J. Smith	vs. STL	-
17	Ben Watson	vs. KC	-
18	Ben Utecht	at BAL	-
19	Randy McMichael	at PHI	-
20	Marcedes Lewis	at TEN	-
21	Donald Lee	vs. MIN	-
22	Desmond Clark	at IND	-
23	Kevin Boss	vs. WAS	-
24	Dustin Keller	at MIA	-
25	Anthony Fasano	vs. NYJ	-
26	Chris Baker	at MIA	-

TE Notes: Mike Lombardi expects Chris Cooley to get double-teamed regularly on third downs. While you can't bench him, another slow start to the season wouldn't surprise. … Kevin Boss is a nice developmental player, but there are too many excellent fantasy options to use him at this point.

Week 1 Team Defense

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Patriots Def/Spec Team	vs. KC	-
2	Chargers Def/Spec Team	vs. CAR	-
3	Seahawks Def/Spec Team	at BUF	-
4	Vikings Def/Spec Team	at GB	-
5	Giants Def/Spec Team	vs. WAS	-
6	Colts Def/Spec Team	vs. CHI	-
7	Packers Def/Spec Team	vs. MIN	-
8	Cowboys Def/Spec Team	at CLE	-
9	Steelers Def/Spec Team	vs. HOU	-
10	Eagles Def/Spec Team	vs. STL	-
11	Buccaneers Def/Spec Team	at NO	-
12	Bengals Def/Spec Team	at BAL	-
13	Broncos Def/Spec Team	at OAK	-
14	Jaguars Def/Spec Team	at TEN	-
15	Titans Def/Spec Team	vs. JAC	-
16	Texans Def/Spec Team	at PIT	-
17	Bears Def/Spec Team	at IND	-
18	Ravens Def/Spec Team	vs. CIN	-
19	Cardinals Def/Spec Team	at SF	-
20	Bills Def/Spec Team	vs. SEA	-
21	Jets Def/Spec Team	at MIA	-
22	Panthers Def/Spec Team	at SD	-
23	Raiders Def/Spec Team	vs. DEN	-
24	Dolphins Def/Spec Team	vs. NYJ	-
25	Redskins Def/Spec Team	at NYG	-
26	Lions Def/Spec Team	at ATL	-
27	Saints Def/Spec Team	vs. TB	-
28	Fortyniners Def/Spec Team	vs. ARZ	-
29	Falcons Def/Spec Team	vs. DET	-
30	Browns Def/Spec Team	vs. DAL	-
31	Rams Def/Spec Team	at PHI	-
32	Chiefs Def/Spec Team	at NE	-

Notes: This is a great test for the Giants team defense in the post-Strahan era. This is a matchup in which they should be able to force mistakes

Week 1 Kickers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Stephen Gostkowski	vs. KC	-
2	Nick Folk	at CLE	-
3	Nate Kaeding	vs. CAR	-
4	Josh Scobee	at TEN	-
5	Josh Brown	at PHI	-
6	Ryan Longwell	at GB	-
7	Mason Crosby	vs. MIN	-
8	Shayne Graham	at BAL	-
9	Adam Vinatieri	vs. CHI	-
10	Rob Bironas	vs. JAC	Sidelined(groin)
11	Phil Dawson	vs. DAL	-
12	Robbie Gould	at IND	-
13	Neil Rackers	at SF	-
14	Jason Hanson	at ATL	-
15	David Akers	vs. STL	-
16	Matt Bryant	at NO	-
17	Matt Stover	vs. CIN	-
18	John Kasay	at SD	-
19	Joe Nedney	vs. ARZ	-
20	Kris Brown	at PIT	-
21	Jeff Reed	vs. HOU	-
22	Martin Gramatica	vs. TB	-
23	Sebastian Janikowski	vs. DEN	Sidelined(hamstring)
24	Jason Elam	vs. DET	-
25	Rian Lindell	vs. SEA	-
26	Shaun Suisham	at NYG	-
27	Mike Nugent	at MIA	-
28	Dan Carpenter	vs. NYJ	-
29	Matt Prater	at OAK	-
30	Olindo Mare	at BUF	-
31	Nick Novak	at NE	-
32	John Carney	vs. WAS	-

[Hache Man]

Shanahan Shenanigans
Football officially returns tonight and I'll be glued to NBC while smiling from ear to ear thinking about the 250-plus games on the docket over the next six months. To celebrate the occasion I'm hosting a "Rotoworld Live Chat" today at 3:00 p.m. EST, which you can check out by clicking here. All questions are welcome, but we'll try to stray from the usual "sit or start?" queries to focus on the big picture.

While you clear your schedule to chat with me this afternoon—it's opening night, your boss will understand—here are some notes from around football …

* Mike Klis of the Denver Post reports that the Broncos "plan on rotating" Selvin Young and Andre Hall to begin the season, which certainly isn't shocking given coach Mike Shanahan's annual quest to make fantasy owners sorry for drafting his presumptive No. 1 runner. Shanahan's presence always makes it difficult to predict how Denver's backfield will shake out, but for now it seems fairly simple.

Like last season, Young figures to get the bulk of the work between the 20-yard lines, which is to say that he'll do most of the heavy lifting before giving way to a short-yardage specialist at the goal line. Last year that role was spread between several players, but this time around it'll definitely be Hall vulturing touchdowns that Young can't cash in from long distance.

While that arrangement limits Young's upside, it shouldn't come as a shock and won't keep him from being a solid RB2 option as long as he plays well and stays healthy. He should be able to get around 200 carries and 40-50 catches, which is more than enough touches to make an impact even if Hall steals a handful of scores at the goal line. Young is worth starting, while Hall is worth owning.

* Coach Jon Gruden revealed Wednesday that Antonio Bryant will start Week 1 alongside Joey Galloway, providing a great opportunity for one of the Rotoworld Draft Guide 's favorite value picks. Released by the 49ers last year after violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, Bryant ended up sitting out his entire age-26 season before signing a one-year deal with the Bucs for the veteran's minimum.

Landing in Tampa Bay seemed like a great fit immediately and Bryant is now in position to put together a big comeback campaign as the Bucs' flanker. He has plenty of baggage and it's possible that he may have lost a step during what was essentially a lost season, but Bryant averaged 850 yards on 55 grabs during the previous three seasons despite playing for some brutal passing attacks.

Galloway is still the man in Tampa Bay, but gets fewer targets than most No. 1 wideouts because he's primarily a deep threat. Plus, he's 37 years old and the fountain of youth has to dry up at some point. Bryant will have to hold off Michael Clayton, Ike Hilliard, and Maurice Stovall, but could emerge as a WR2 option if he can stay healthy and out of trouble. He's definitely worth gambling on. tampabaybuccaneers.ws

* Responding to reports that his surgically repaired knee might be well enough for him to play in the Seahawks' opener, Deion Branch said Tuesday that he's not ready "right now." Coach Mike Holmgren agreed with his assessment, saying Wednesday that Branch is unlikely to suit up against the Bills this week. Worse, the Tacoma News Tribune speculates that "he's not close to being ready."

After going without a catch in Week 1 last season Branch turned in three straight big games, totaling 329 yards on 20 catches, but now seems unlikely to make an impact before October. Courtney Taylor will start at flanker for however long he's out and makes for a sneaky WR3 option this week even if the Seahawks are true to their word by featuring a more balanced offensive attack.

* Speaking of Seattle's offense, Holmgren confirmed Wednesday that Maurice Morris will get the Week 1 start over Julius Jones. Yesterday in this space my guess was that Morris and Jones would split time and that remains a pretty good bet, although Holmgren indicated that Morris will be given first crack at emerging with a bigger slice of the carries. Neither guy is a strong RB2 play this week.

Two-Minute Drill: After 102 catches last season, Brandon Marshall said Tuesday that his totally unattainable goal is to haul in 140 passes this year despite a one-game suspension … According to agent Drew Rosenhaus, "there's a very good chance Lito Sheppard gets traded in the next few weeks" … After previously demanding a trade, Anquan Boldin is now saying that his contract status won't be an issue during the season … Kyle Boller's (shoulder) season is over after he was placed on injured reserve Wednesday and the Ravens signed Todd Bouman to back up rookie Joe Flacco in Week 1 … Told that Michael Turner expects 300 carries, offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey replied: "I've never said he's going to get 300 and I probably never will" … Chad Jackson wasn't offered a job after trying out for the Raiders this week, which is probably all you need to know about his career at this point … Similarly, Cedric Benson reportedly tried out for the Saints recently, but predictably wasn't offered a contract … With Kevin Faulk suspended, LaMont Jordan will see Week 1 action on passing downs … Stuck behind Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett said Wednesday that he doesn't expect to play much this year due to his lack of reps in practice.

Red Zone: Amid radio-fueled rumors about Tom Brady's foot, coach Bill Belichick uncharacteristically discussed an injury Wednesday by noting that "he'll be ready to go" against the Chiefs … Meanwhile, Peyton Manning (knee) practiced fully Wednesday and will start Sunday night versus the Bears … Willis McGahee (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday, hinting that he'll get less than a full workload in Week 1 even if he starts … Ryan Grant (hamstring) missed his second straight practice Wednesday, putting his status for Monday night in some question … Wes Welker (ribs) is absent from the Patriots' injury report, but Ben Watson sat out Wednesday's practice with an undisclosed knee injury … Jerry Porter (hamstring) practiced Wednesday, but his status remains uncertain the season opener … According to coach Lane Kiffin, Javon Walker (hamstring) is "questionable" to face his former Broncos teammates Monday night … Reggie Brown (hamstring) was limited in his return to practice Wednesday, but figures to see tons of Week 1 targets with Kevin Curtis (hernia) out … Bernard Berrian's turf toe is healed enough that he's absent from the Vikings' injury report.

[Hache Man]

Giant Opener for Plax
Football officially returned Thursday night, as the Super Bowl champions kicked off their title defense with a 16-7 win over the Redskins. After signing a five-year, $35 million contract extension hours before the game Plaxico Burress celebrated with 133 yards on a career-high 10 catches, turning in his second straight huge opener after torching the Cowboys for 144 yards and three scores last season.
www.newyorkgiants.ws
Along with Burress, Brandon Jacobs also had an impressive night, bulldozing his way to 116 yards on 21 carries. Meanwhile, the Redskins managed just 209 total yards and 11 first downs, as new coach Jim Zorn showed off a very conservative attack in his debut. Interestingly, Zorn got the Redskins job after Steve Spagnulo withdrew from consideration to remain the Giants defensive coordinator.

While this season begins like last season ended, here are some other notes from around football …

* Giants tidbits from the opener: Eli Manning was his usual inconsistent self, but had a rushing touchdown after totaling two scores on the ground through his first four years. Derrick Ward is clearly No. 2 on the depth chart behind Jacobs, with Ahmad Bradshaw third. Kevin Boss went catchless and was targeted just once, showing why the Rotoworld Draft Guide ranked him just 23rd among tight ends.

* Redskins tidbits from the opener: Antwaan Randle El had a superficially nice game with 73 yards on seven grabs, but nearly all of that came in quasi-garbage time. Chris Cooley had just one catch for seven yards, but he's never had a big Week 1, combining for 57 yards on seven grabs in four previous openers. Plus, after watching this amazing video you know Cooley will step it up for his owners.

* Kevin Curtis' hernia put Reggie Brown in position to get a ton of early season targets as the Eagles' top receiver, but a hamstring injury has Brown uncertain to play in Week 1. He missed Thursday's practice and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg called him "day-to-day right now" while adding that regardless of his status rookie DeSean Jackson "will start at front flanker" Sunday.

With Jackson and Hank Baskett the Eagles' likely starters, Brown is no longer a fantasy option against the Rams. Meanwhile, Jackson is suddenly set to take on a big role offensively after initially being expected to serve primarily as a return man early on. While the Eagles will surely lean even heavier than usual on Brian Westbrook, with Curtis and Brown out there's room for a wideout to step up.

* Coach Tony Sparano said Wednesday that Ronnie Brown has had "more life in his legs" and "a little more burst" recently, and refused to confirm various reports that Ricky Williams will be the Week 1 starter. However, the Newark Star-Ledger speculates that Williams will likely get "nearly 20 carries" against the Jets. Brown figures to see third-down work either way, but Williams is the better Week 1 bet. www.miamidolphins.ws

* Antonio Gates has practiced fully this week, but said Thursday that he "won't start the game" and will be limited in Week 1 due to his surgically repaired foot. "Just trying to monitor the situation depending how it feels when I get out there," Gates said. "Sunday will definitely tell the tale and give a clear picture of what I can do in the game." Gates is impossible to bench, so check back on his status. www.sandiegochargers.ws

* Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said Thursday that Willis McGahee (knee) is "getting close" to full health, but could be a game-time decision Sunday after being limited in back-to-back practices. "Whether that'll mean this week or not, I don't know," Cameron said. If McGahee sits rookie Ray Rice should get 15-20 touches and the two backs may split time anyway. McGahee is a poor RB2. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Two-Minute Drill: According to coach Rod Marinelli, Rudi Johnson "went out and had a good day" in his first Lions practice, but don't expect more than a handful of Week 1 touches … Devin Hester is slated to start at wide receiver in addition to returning kicks in Week 1, and coach Tony Dungy said Wednesday that the Colts plan to kick to him … While the Steelers reportedly remain undecided on their goal-line running back, Mewelde Moore will take over for Willie Parker on third downs … After passing both Will Heller and Jeb Putzier on the Seahawk's tight end depth chart, rookie John Carlson will get the Week 1 start … General manager Scot McCloughan said Wednesday that former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith won't return to the 49ers at the price of $9 million next season unless he's viewed as the starter … Primarily a special teamer in the past, Greg Camarillo has surprisingly moved ahead of Derek Hagan on the Dolphins' receiver depth chart … A shell of his former self since his 2005 knee injury, Daunte Culpepper retired Thursday at the age of 31, saying that he's been denied a "fair chance to compete for a job."

Red Zone: Ryan Grant (hamstring) returned to practice Thursday after two days off, but remains a mediocre RB1 option due to an unfavorable matchup against Minnesota … Either putting an end to the injury talk or ramping up speculation even further, Tom Brady (foot) is oddly absent from the injury report after years of being "probable" every week … Chad Johnson (shoulder) put in a full practice Thursday, making him a go for Sunday's matchup with the Ravens … Concerns about his stitched-up foot can be put aside now that Braylon Edwards is absent from the injury report … Limited in practice Thursday, Joey Galloway (groin) and Antonio Bryant (knee) both seem likely to face the Saints in Week 1 … Javon Walker (hamstring) skipped practice Thursday and will be a game-time decision Monday night, so he shouldn't be in fantasy lineups this week … D.J. Hackett (toe) practiced fully Thursday and will start Sunday against the Chargers … Ben Watson (knee) missed his second straight practice Thursday, making it unlikely that he'll play this week … Angelo Crowell led the Bills with 126 tackles last year, but his season is over before it starts following knee surgery Thursday.

[Hache Man]

MCI Index: Who's rising?
Welcome to the first installment of the Fantasy Man-Crush Index, your 2008 player stock guide. Each week, I'll take a look at a handful of players upon whom Fantasy Nation – that's you, readers -- is heaping piles of crazy, sometimes irrational affection. Or not heaping, as the case may be, either of which will hopefully help you with those tough "buy or sell?" decisions that can make or break your season.

But first, a trip down memory lane, sponsored by Rotoworld, Vermont Teddy Bears and eHarmony…

I found my first fantasy football man-crush back in 1998, my "rookie year." I was absolutely butchering my draft the way newbies often do –Drew Bledsoe fifth overall (homer pick!); Chiefs D/ST in the 4th round (with the imbecilic reasoning that Tamarick Vanover would have lots of punt return touchdowns). But in the 13th round, like a chimp, I blindly hurled more of my own filth at the draft board and, somehow, it hit a talented but troubled rookie out of Marshall named Randy Moss. Guffaws, jeers and tired jokes about my team locker room reeking like Jeff Spicoli's van quickly followed. But I was the one laughing sixteen weeks later, after Moss hauled in 1,313 yards and 17 TDs.

I've loved Moss ever since . . . in a platonic, respectful, awkward man-hug/knuckle-rap kind of way, not a "leave my wife, kidnap him, keep him in a dirt pit in my sub-basement and then make a suit out of his skin" way. I've had him on most of my teams over the past decade. Randy and I have had our ups and downs, sure – mooning Packer fans; ditching FedEx Field early; being labeled washed-up by such respected football minds as Art Shell and innkeeper/offensive coordinator Tom Walsh. But last year, he rewarded my longtime faith and devotion with his monster 23-TD season. Yes, folks, I truly believe that he rocked those monster numbers just for me.

Wait . . . is that weird?

Anyway, I'll do my damndest this season to be your Standard & Poor's each week, examining the how's and why's of a player's rising or falling stock. I'll consider everything from simple point production to x-factors like injuries, depth chart and/or team personnel changes, and even off-field incidents, like sucker-punching an innocent plasma screen (talkin' to you, Brandon Marshall). And because you likely don't have all day to scour fantasy message boards, read articles from local beat writers and generally immerse yourself in all things fantasy football 24/7, I'll be out there gathering that intel for you. No reason you should get fired.

With that, let's take a look at some risers and fallers as we sit giddily perched on the brink of another season…

RISERS

Rudi Johnson, RB, Lions
Being plucked off the scrapheap by respected personnel guru Matt Millen is the only reason Rudi's not working a Long John Silver's drive-thru right now. Yes, he could very easily see some goal line carries and now only a rookie (Kevin Smith) stands between him and a starting gig on a decent offense (albeit one with a terrible O-line), his hammys are suspect at best, no matter which feline-themed themed uniform he wears. Stock has risen, yes, but I'm personally not buying. www.detroitlions.ws

DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
When Kevin Curtis went down, Jackson had a golden opportunity to seize control of a full-time gig. And he did with some stellar pre-season play. Now, Reggie Brown is pulling his annual "I'll injure anything, anytime" act. Temper expectations of course, because (A) we have little empirical evidence that shows he can produce against starting defenses for four quarters, and (B) the WR2 on Philly has never been a fantasy goldmine. But that Reid held him out of the pre-season finale – a rarity for a rook -- speaks volumes about his potential. While he's not assured of pulling a "Colston-in-2006" because Hank Baskett is also kicking around, Jackson could have a nice impact if things shake out.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
Willis McGahee battled (knee) injuries throughout the pre-season, and word is the Ravens weren't happy with the speed of his recovery, i.e. they felt he was playing too much Madden 2008 instead of re-habbing Enter Ray Rice, an undersized rookie from Rutgers who impressed in the pre-season and would start this weekend if McGahee can't go vs. Cincy. He's a must-own for McGahee owners and could make some noise in Week 1 against a suspect Bengals run defense. www.baltimoreravens.ws

Chris Perry/Kenny Watson, RBs, Bengals
The aforementioned Johnson is gone. Perry finally made it through a camp and is the starter heading into Week 1. But while his stock rose enough to see him drafted his own injury history and the presence of both Kenny Watson and DeDe Dorsey (even though most people generally don't fear dudes named "DeDe") make Perry risky. I personally think Kenny Watson again ends up with the most production out of all Bengal RBs this year. How much that is this season is anyone's guess.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets
Favre has always had that "break glass in case of emergency" receiver. Back in the day it was Antonio Freeman. Then Donald Driver. And word out of Jets camp is that this year's official Favre security blanket is Cotchery. After a quietly spectacular 2007 (82 catches, 1,130 yards, 2 TDs) with mediocre at best quarterbacks, his (usual) 4th round draft status makes it clear that Fantasy Nation is ready to start a-courtin' Cotchery for years to come. www.newyorkjets.ws

Tony Scheffler, TE, Broncos
While most have Owen Daniels poised to be this year's Jason Witten -- and don't get me wrong, I love Daniels -- Tony Scheffler might even be better value considering he was typically drafted somewhere around the 11th/12th round, while Daniels hovered around the 9th. In only seven starts last season, Scheffler racked up 49 catches for 549 yards and 5 TDs. And with Darrell Jackson iffy at best and pre-season darling Eddie Royal unproven, Scheffler could play that de facto WR role in Denver the way Witten does in Dallas. Oh, and he was Cutler's roommate as a rookie and they're like BFF! OMG! LOL! which can't hurt.

Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks
Julius Jones was typically drafted in the 6th round. Meanwhile, Mo Mo, as his friends call him, often went five to seven rounds later even though he'll likely split carries at worst. That's good value, my friends. And Holmgren has named him the "starter" against the Bills, although there's bound to be a rotation, but if he excels he could keep stealing carries.

Amani Toomer
To quote bartender/American poet laureate Moe Syzlak, "Wha-wha-whaaaaaat?!" True, Toomer only had two catches for 12 yards. But looking more closely, he had eight targets -- almost a quarter of Eli's 35 total passes – half in the red zone, and two from the Redskins' 6-yard line that could have gone for scores. Toomer led the league in red zone targets for much of 2007 – yes, ahead of Moss, Wayne, Welker, Edwards, and Colston – and while he won't get the consistent yards or TDs like Plaxico, he's clearly somewhat of a security blanket for Eli and makes a solid emergency Flex player.

Derrick Ward
One game, yes, but Ward is the clear backup to Jacobs. And he looked good, too. If Jacobs goes down, as he does with some frequency, Ward's proven he can carry the load, averaging 94 yards in the five starts last season, with three TDs. If you own Jacobs and don't have Ward, get him. If you don't own Jacobs and have Ward, start the trade talks. If you own Ward but want to own Jacobs, but Ward is…was….wait, now I'm confused…you get the idea.
FALLERS

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos
Denver running backs are like exotic dancers. They'll tease you. You know better than to believe in them. Yet when the sun rises and you sober up, you're sitting alone in a corner booth at Denny's, glumly picking at a soggy Moons Over My-Hammy® that you bought with your few remaining crumpled $1 bills. Still, when Young's promising rookie competition, Ryan Torain, went down for at least six weeks, his value shot up . . . only to quickly peter out when we learned that Young would rotate with Andre Hall. Not a shock, no, but relying on Young to bust a long one from somewhere between the 20's is a boom or bust proposition. Add in the fact that (A) he plays for Beelzebub…er, Shanahan, and (B) Hall will vulture his short TDs, and Selvin's value takes a slight hit.

Carson Palmer
No, not because of his broken beak. It's that Cincy is breaking camp with an iffy running game and two stud receivers with little nagging (Housh) and possibly season-ending (Chad) injuries. Palmer has little else to throw to. Doesn't bode well for a guy who lobbed 20 picks last season. Maybe it's just my ever-growing gut talking, but the Bengals scare the hell out of me this year.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
"Huzzah!" Steeler fans cried when Mendenhall was drafted last April. "We've finally got our best power back since the Bus!" And all fantasy owners (except Willie Parker's dynasty owners) salivated at the thought of Mendenhall getting goal line carries on a potent offense. But not so fast, folks. His pre-season fumbilitis – so bad that WR/motivational coach Hines Ward gave Mendenhall a football to carry at all times and offered $100 to any teammate who could strip it -- and the presence of FB Carey Davis are, for the time being, reducing his value.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins
Yes, he had a nice final pre-season game (12 carries, 47yds, TD against the Saints) and has gotten fantasy owners giddy about him again. But take a cold shower here, fellas – name one running back who's come back to top form within a year of serious ACL surgery. (Crickets . . . crickets . . . ). I'm rooting for him, since he started off last year in epic form, but it's Brown's 4th/5th round draft position that sours me, considering it was typically a couple rounds before committee mate and "starter" Ricky Williams. Translation? Brown represents bad value since many predict them both finishing at 700-800ish yards and 5 TDs apiece. www.miamidolphins.ws

Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks
If the Eagles WR corps is merely banged up, then Seattle's resembles Antietam post-battle pictures from Ken Burns' Civil War series. Bodies strewn everywhere. Dogs picking at loose flesh. And the stench…oh, the stench. Optimistic souls think Branch will be back for Week 1. I am not an optimistic soul and wouldn't count on anything from Branch until Week 6, if that.

Chris Cooley
Like Ward, it's only one game, but man this was painful for Cooley owners to watch. One target last night. Not just one catch, but one target. That's only one more than you or I had, and neither one of us play professional football for the NFL's Washington Redskins. Methinks the departure of tight end guru Al Saunders – he's got Kellen Winslow, Sr., Tony Gonzalez and last year's Cooley on his resume – will hurt. (Side note: it's why we need to bump Randy McMichael's value this year. Saunders starting tight ends have averaged 72 catches/ 900 yards/ 6 TDs. Would you take that from a guy who often goes un-drafted? I would.)

Tatum Bell, Thief, Between Jobs
When you're cut to make room for a guy whose hammys are frayed rubber bands . . . and then you steal from that guy . . . and then you get caught on video stealing from that guy . . .well, your fantasy stock -- hell, your human being stock -- can't go much lower. Worse, he stole Rudi Johnson's underwear. My official list of people whose underwear I would least want to own: 1. Jack Black, 2. Rudi Johnson, 3. Liza Minelli.

This is just a sampler plate, considering we're in that short dead zone between fake play and real play. But it's a long year, player values fluctuate, and Fantasy Nation has a lot of love to give. So it's only a matter of time before we owners start to openly weep for joy at the mention of ____'s name, and get pissed off when someone throws an offensive lowball offer for them.

[Hache Man]

Week 1 Rankings Update

Deciding what early games to watch on Sunday 1PM is especially difficult in Week 1. I want to see if Chris Perry can hold up as a starting running back, especially against the Ravens. I want to see if this year's Patriots look like the '07 version; they certainly have the right matchup with Kansas City. I want to see if the Rams offensive line looks better, if the Texans passing game is as good as I think they are, if Chad Pennington can pull off the gut-wrenching upset for Jets fans that I expect.

Note: I'm chatting with Season Pass subscribers at 3PM Friday.

One major piece of advice I have for owners is to not overrate the matchups in Week 1. These teams are all drastically different than last year. Even the ones with similar rosters will play much differently. Do not expect much to carry over defensively. Early in the season, lean towards playing the best players, not the matchups.

Below are the rankings and updated notes for Week 1. I left the Giants and Redskins players in the rankings, plus their notes at the bottom of each position. The Rankings had a final update Friday evening after the injury report came out. The changes are explained on Pancake Blocks. We'll get on a regular schedule next week. Enjoy the games, no matter what one you decide to watch.

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Tom Brady	vs. KC	-
2	Tony Romo	at CLE	-
3	Donovan McNabb	vs. STL	-
4	Peyton Manning	vs. CHI	Bears are bigger concern than knee
5	Drew Brees	vs. TB	-
6	Ben Roethlisberger	vs. HOU	-
7	Carson Palmer	at BAL	-
8	Derek Anderson	vs. DAL	All systems go
9	Kurt Warner	at SF	-
10	Matt Hasselbeck	at BUF	-
11	Jay Cutler	at OAK	Tough matchup on paper
12	Eli Manning	vs. WAS	-
13	Matt Schaub	at PIT	-
14	Jon Kitna	at ATL	-
15	Aaron Rodgers	vs. MIN	-
16	David Garrard	at TEN	No Porter
17	Marc Bulger	at PHI	-
18	Brett Favre	at MIA	-
19	Vince Young	vs. JAC	Probable(hamstring)
20	J.T. O'Sullivan	vs. ARZ	-
21	Jason Campbell	at NYG	-
22	Jeff Garcia	at NO	Probable(finger)
23	Jake Delhomme	at SD	-
24	Philip Rivers	vs. CAR	-
25	Trent Edwards	vs. SEA	-
26	Tarvaris Jackson	at GB	Probable(knee)
27	Chad Pennington	vs. NYJ	-
28	JaMarcus Russell	vs. DEN	-
29	Matt Ryan	vs. DET	-
30	Kyle Orton	at IND	-
31	Brodie Croyle	at NE	-
32	Joe Flacco	vs. CIN	-

QB Notes: It's impossible to predict what the Patriots will do on a weekly basis. But after a lame preseason and questions about Tom Brady's foot, I can see them being very aggressive in the passing game early against Kansas City to recapture their mojo and remind themselves what they are capable of. … Cleveland's secondary is thin, and they will be forced to play man coverage on T.O. and Patrick Crayton. … The Bucs' Cover 2 did a fine job keeping Drew Brees in check last season, limiting him to 439 yards and three scores over two games. You can't bench the every-week starter, especially in Week 1, but don't expect a huge game.

We'll get to see this week if Carson Palmer's struggles from the preseason were all personnel related. I suspect they were. With Housh and Chad Johnson back, this passing game should get back on track despite playing Baltimore. … Kurt Warner will be someone to watch closely. It's not like he played particularly well in the preseason, and he still struggles with turnovers and pressure. Fantasy owners need to hope for a fast start by him. It's not like he has great job security if the Cardinals start losing. … The Texans want to run the football, but the talent is in the passing game. They were in great rhythm in the preseason. On paper, the Steelers are more vulnerable through the air. Gary Kubiak's playcalling this week will be a good indication of how aggressive the team will be throwing the ball. With enough attempts, Matt Schaub will be a top-ten quarterback. … If I wasn't so wary of overrating the matchup, Jon Kitna would be ranked even higher. The Falcons look terrible on paper, but funny things tend to happen to conventional wisdom in Week 1.

Jacksonville isn't healthy on the offensive line, which could cause problems against Tennessee's strong front seven. It will be an excellent test to see whether David Garrard's momentum can carry over into this season. … I have been getting a lot of grief from Brett Favre supporters this season. If it was anyone else changing teams at his age, he'd be ranked a lot lower. Look for the Jets to have a conservative gameplan, keeping his stats down.

***

The Redskins may struggle to apply pressure on Eli Manning with their front seven. Losing defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was a huge blow. Jason Taylor may not be ready, and their defensive line is average at best. With time to throw, Manning's receivers can win one-on-one battles against Washington's man coverage. … Washington's offensive line is healthier than last season, although they are benching stalwart Jon Jansen. Look for Campbell to get the ball out of his hands faster than last year, concentrating on shorter routes. The question is whether his smurfish group of receivers fit this system of slants. It could take a while to get the timing down; I'd expect mediocre numbers on Thursday.

Discuss your rankings and your lineup decisions in the Rotoworld football forums.

Week 1 Running Backs

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	vs. CAR	-
2	Adrian Peterson	at GB	-
3	Brian Westbrook	vs. STL	-
4	Steven Jackson	at PHI	-
5	Frank Gore	vs. ARZ	-
6	Marshawn Lynch	vs. SEA	-
7	Marion Barber	at CLE	-
8	Joseph Addai	vs. CHI	-
9	Clinton Portis	at NYG	-
10	Brandon Jacobs	vs. WAS	-
11	Selvin Young	at OAK	-
12	Ryan Grant	vs. MIN	Probable(hamstring)
13	Larry Johnson	at NE	-
14	Laurence Maroney	vs. KC	-
15	Maurice Jones-Drew	at TEN	-
16	Michael Turner	vs. DET	-
17	Reggie Bush	vs. TB	-
18	Thomas Jones	at MIA	-
19	Earnest Graham	at NO	-
20	Willie Parker	vs. HOU	Moving up, Mendenhall not a threat?
21	Matt Forte	at IND	-
22	Darren McFadden	vs. DEN	-
23	Jamal Lewis	vs. DAL	Possible Game-Time Decision; ranked as if starting
24	Chris Perry	at BAL	-
25	LenDale White	vs. JAC	-
26	Kevin Smith	at ATL	Moved up
27	Jonathan Stewart	at SD	-
28	DeAngelo Williams	at SD	-
29	Edgerrin James	at SF	-
30	Justin Fargas	vs. DEN	-
31	Ricky Williams	vs. NYJ	-
32	Ray Rice	vs. CIN	Move him up ten spots if McGahee is out
33	Chris Johnson	vs. JAC	-
34	Willis McGahee	vs. CIN	Probable, but game-time decision
35	Ronnie Brown	vs. NYJ	-
36	Fred Taylor	at TEN	-
37	Maurice Morris	at BUF	-
38	Julius Jones	at BUF	-
39	Steve Slaton	at PIT	-
40	Ahman Green	at PIT	-
41	Kenny Watson	at BAL	Probable(hamstring)
42	Chester Taylor	at GB	-
43	Felix Jones	at CLE	-
44	Ahmad Bradshaw	vs. WAS	Probable(-)
45	Jerious Norwood	vs. DET	-
46	Rashard Mendenhall	vs. HOU	10-15 snaps?
47	Rudi Johnson	at ATL	-
48	Andre Hall	at OAK	-
49	Tim Hightower	at SF	-
50	Fred Jackson	vs. SEA	-
51	Sammy Morris	vs. KC	-
52	Warrick Dunn	at NO	-
53	Jerome Harrison	vs. DAL	Move him up 36 if Lewis is out
54	Chris Taylor	at PIT	-
55	Brandon Jackson	vs. MIN	-
56	Ladell Betts	at NYG	-
57	Dominic Rhodes	vs. CHI	-
58	Pierre Thomas	vs. TB	-
59	DeShaun Foster	vs. ARZ	-
60	Kevin Jones	at IND	-
61	Deuce McAllister	vs. TB	Questionable(knee)

RB Notes: Look for most rookies to worked into the mix slowly. Rashard Mendenhall is only expected to get 10-15 snaps, leaving Willie Parker to his normal role. Felix Jones isn't expected to be too active, which is a surprise after watching Hard Knocks. My guess is he'll be involved plenty. Chris Johnson should be the lesser half of a committee in Tennessee. Even Kevin Smith may give up some carries to Rudi Johnson right away.

One rookie that should get involved right away is Darren McFadden. The Raiders are going to run on a higher percentage of plays than perhaps anyone in the league, especially when the game is close. They can get both Justin Fargas and McFadden 15 touches with a little luck. … Ryan Grant isn't 100%, but the Packers are expected to give him a full load against the twin towers of Williams power in Minnesota. Unless you are truly loaded at running back, I can't imagine benching one of the few safe bets for 20 touches. Who are you going to bench him for? The truly safe bets stop after the top-ten.

Andre Hall has been getting a lot of good press, but we don't know much about what Mike Shanahan will do until it happens. I expect Selvin Young to dominate the touches, which makes him almost impossible to sit against the Raiders. … Keep an eye on Jamal Lewis and any reports about his hamstring. … It sounds like Willis McGahee and Ray Rice could split carries Sunday. That makes both of them flex plays against the Bengals, rather than RB2s. Cincy will be able to stack the box and cover the Ravens man-to-man on the outside with Joe Flacco at quarterback. … I won't love Michael Turner and Kevin Smith every week, but this game sets up well for both players. Regardless of what we've read, Rudi Johnson is unlikely to have a big role this week. That should leave plenty of carries for Smith. The Falcons will do their best to showcase Turner, their high-price free agent acquisition. Detroit's defensive front looks perilously thin.

Ronnie Brown should be just active enough to damage Ricky Williams' day. After a strong couple weeks, the coaching staff will want to see what both players can do against the Jets. Look for a very conservative game-plan by Miami, which should mean lots of rushing attempts. … Jonathan Stewart is more likely to score than DeAngelo Williams, so I'd go with the rookie if I had to choose. And I do.

***

There has been a lot of speculation about how the Giants backfield will be used this season. While Derrick Ward and Ahman Bradshaw's roles are to be determined, it's safe to pencil in 15-20 carries from Brandon Jacobs. Since he's always a good bet to score, the train cannot be benched. I still expect Bradshaw to have plenty of stand alone value as a fantasy reserve. … The Redskins plan to keep Clinton Portis on the field as much as Joe Gibbs did, if not more. Ladell Betts is a true backup, not a committee partner.

Week 1 Wide Receivers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Randy Moss	vs. KC	-
2	Terrell Owens	at CLE	-
3	Andre Johnson	at PIT	-
4	Larry Fitzgerald	at SF	-
5	Braylon Edwards	vs. DAL	-
6	Reggie Wayne	vs. CHI	-
7	Marques Colston	vs. TB	-
8	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	at BAL	-
9	Torry Holt	at PHI	-
10	Anquan Boldin	at SF	-
11	Chad Ocho Cinco	at BAL	Probable(shoulder)
12	Roy Williams	at ATL	-
13	Santonio Holmes	vs. HOU	-
14	Plaxico Burress	vs. WAS	-
15	Jerricho Cotchery	at MIA	-
16	Wes Welker	vs. KC	-
17	Marvin Harrison	vs. CHI	-
18	Calvin Johnson	at ATL	-
19	Greg Jennings	vs. MIN	-
20	Lee Evans	vs. SEA	-
21	Dwayne Bowe	at NE	-
22	Roddy White	vs. DET	-
23	Laveranues Coles	at MIA	Should play, but listed as questionable
24	Joey Galloway	at NO	Questionable(groin)
25	Donald Driver	vs. MIN	-
26	Santana Moss	at NYG	-
27	Patrick Crayton	at CLE	-
28	Antonio Bryant	at NO	Check pregame status, should start
29	Chris Chambers	vs. CAR	-
30	Hines Ward	vs. HOU	-
31	Ronald Curry	vs. DEN	-
32	Vincent Jackson	vs. CAR	-
33	Bernard Berrian	at GB	-
34	Donte' Stallworth	vs. DAL	-
35	Drew Bennett	at PHI	-
36	D.J. Hackett	at SD	Probable(toe)
37	Anthony Gonzalez	vs. CHI	-
38	Nate Burleson	at BUF	-
39	Courtney Taylor	at BUF	-
40	Isaac Bruce	vs. ARZ	-
41	Sidney Rice	at GB	-
42	DeSean Jackson	vs. STL	-
43	Kevin Walter	at PIT	-
44	Amani Toomer	vs. WAS	-
45	Eddie Royal	at OAK	-
46	Darrell Jackson	at OAK
47	Mark Clayton	vs. CIN	-
48	Javon Walker	vs. DEN	Questionable(hamstring)
49	David Patten	vs. TB	-
50	Ted Ginn Jr.	vs. NYJ	-
51	Matt Jones	at TEN	Surprise Start
52	Justin Gage	vs. JAC	-
53	Bryant Johnson	vs. ARZ	Splitting with Morgan?
54	Derrick Mason	vs. CIN	-
55	Hank Baskett	vs. STL	-
56	Arnaz Battle	vs. ARZ	-
57	Josh Morgan	vs. ARZ	-
58	Reggie Williams	at TEN	Probable(hamstring)
59	Muhsin Muhammad	at SD	-
60	Rashied Davis	at IND	-
61	Jabar Gaffney	vs. KC	-

WR Notes: Larry Fitzgerald benefits from having Kurt Warner under center more than Anquan Boldin. Warner can throw it deep. … If the NFL is going to recognize Chad Ocho Cinco, we might as well too. The name will be changed in the Friday evening rankings update. And if you own Mr. Cinco, you have to play him until he proves he's unworthy, shoulder injury or not. … Since receiver scoring tends to fluctuate much less than other positions depending on the matchup, these rankings are somewhat similar to our year-long ranks. One person taking a big leap in both this week was Antonio Bryant. Jon Gruden always manages to squeeze out yards, and Bryant is talented enough to challenge Joey Galloway for the team lead in yardage. That only makes him a WR3, but he's someone worth owning.

Patrick Crayton is a player I loved going into last season. He came through as a WR3, but was frustratingly inconsistent. It's easy to forget how far he's come as a player, and the lack of options behind him makes a great play this week. The difference between him and Jabar Gaffney is that the Patriots will get all their receivers involved in the game. Gaffney is still on the team primarily to block, although Chad Jackson's release certainly helps his chances for his best season. … Marvin Harrison is a player to watch closely Sunday. The Bears generally do a good job taking away big plays, Harrison's speciality. They have an excellent cornerback group. If Harrison and the Colts are humming Sunday night, his owners may have drafted one of the values of the season.

With Javon Walker at less than 100% and Drew Carter out for the season, I expect Ronald Curry to lead the Raiders in receiving. Of course that may not mean a huge fantasy day. … It's easy to see the Rams falling behind early, which could mean plenty of targets for Drew Bennett and Torry Holt. St. Louis is another team with poor receiver depth, which helps the starters. … Using the Vikings receivers scares me this week. Tarvaris Jackson is shaky enough at 100%.

***

The Redskins put a lot of pressure on their cornerbacks to play man coverage. If they can't generate pressure, the Giants could expose them. Still, it's hard to pick Amani Toomer or Steve Smith. The team will go four wide and get tight end Kevin Boss involved, so the pie is split up too many ways. Plaxico Burress is an every-week play until proven otherwise. … Santana Moss will play flanker this season, which should increase the amount of short passes he says. While that should help his consistency, it also increases his chance for injury. He could really use some development from the young Washington receivers to take pressure off.

Week 1 Tight Ends

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Jason Witten	at CLE	-
2	Kellen Winslow	vs. DAL	-
3	Antonio Gates	vs. CAR	Probable(foot)
4	Tony Gonzalez	at NE	-
5	Jeremy Shockey	vs. TB	-
6	Chris Cooley	at NYG	-
7	Vernon Davis	vs. ARZ	-
8	Todd Heap	vs. CIN	Probable(knee)
9	Owen Daniels	at PIT	-
10	Dallas Clark	vs. CHI	-
11	Tony Scheffler	at OAK	-
12	Heath Miller	vs. HOU	-
13	Zach Miller	vs. DEN	-
14	Greg Olsen	at IND	-
15	Alge Crumpler	vs. JAC	-
16	L.J. Smith	vs. STL	-
17	Ben Utecht	at BAL	-
18	Randy McMichael	at PHI	-
19	Marcedes Lewis	at TEN	-
20	Donald Lee	vs. MIN	-
21	Desmond Clark	at IND	-
22	Kevin Boss	vs. WAS	-
23	Dustin Keller	at MIA	-
24	Anthony Fasano	vs. NYJ	-
25	Chris Baker	at MIA	-

Week 1 Team Defense

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Patriots Def/Spec Team	vs. KC	-
2	Chargers Def/Spec Team	vs. CAR	-
3	Seahawks Def/Spec Team	at BUF	-
4	Vikings Def/Spec Team	at GB	-
5	Giants Def/Spec Team	vs. WAS	-
6	Colts Def/Spec Team	vs. CHI	-
7	Packers Def/Spec Team	vs. MIN	-
8	Cowboys Def/Spec Team	at CLE	-
9	Steelers Def/Spec Team	vs. HOU	-
10	Eagles Def/Spec Team	vs. STL	-
11	Buccaneers Def/Spec Team	at NO	-
12	Bengals Def/Spec Team	at BAL	-
13	Broncos Def/Spec Team	at OAK	-
14	Jaguars Def/Spec Team	at TEN	-
15	Titans Def/Spec Team	vs. JAC	-
16	Texans Def/Spec Team	at PIT	-
17	Bears Def/Spec Team	at IND	-
18	Ravens Def/Spec Team	vs. CIN	-
19	Cardinals Def/Spec Team	at SF	-
20	Bills Def/Spec Team	vs. SEA	-
21	Jets Def/Spec Team	at MIA	-
22	Panthers Def/Spec Team	at SD	-
23	Raiders Def/Spec Team	vs. DEN	-
24	Dolphins Def/Spec Team	vs. NYJ	-
25	Redskins Def/Spec Team	at NYG	-
26	Lions Def/Spec Team	at ATL	-
27	Saints Def/Spec Team	vs. TB	-
28	Fortyniners Def/Spec Team	vs. ARZ	-
29	Falcons Def/Spec Team	vs. DET	-
30	Browns Def/Spec Team	vs. DAL	-
31	Rams Def/Spec Team	at PHI	-
32	Chiefs Def/Spec Team	at NE	-

Notes: This is a great test for the Giants team defense in the post-Strahan era. This is a matchup in which they should be able to force mistakes

Week 1 Kickers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Stephen Gostkowski	vs. KC	-
2	Nick Folk	at CLE	-
3	Nate Kaeding	vs. CAR	-
4	Josh Scobee	at TEN	-
5	Josh Brown	at PHI	-
6	Ryan Longwell	at GB	-
7	Mason Crosby	vs. MIN	-
8	Shayne Graham	at BAL	-
9	Adam Vinatieri	vs. CHI	-
10	Rob Bironas	vs. JAC	Sidelined(groin)
11	Phil Dawson	vs. DAL	-
12	Robbie Gould	at IND	-
13	Neil Rackers	at SF	-
14	Jason Hanson	at ATL	-
15	David Akers	vs. STL	-
16	Matt Bryant	at NO	-
17	Matt Stover	vs. CIN	-
18	John Kasay	at SD	-
19	Joe Nedney	vs. ARZ	-
20	Kris Brown	at PIT	-
21	Jeff Reed	vs. HOU	-
22	Martin Gramatica	vs. TB	-
23	Sebastian Janikowski	vs. DEN	Sidelined(hamstring)
24	Jason Elam	vs. DET	-
25	Rian Lindell	vs. SEA	-
26	Shaun Suisham	at NYG	-
27	Mike Nugent	at MIA	-
28	Dan Carpenter	vs. NYJ	-
29	Matt Prater	at OAK	-
30	Olindo Mare	at BUF	-
31	Nick Novak	at NE	-
32	John Carney	vs. WAS	-

[Hache Man]

Bowe Poses Mismatch for Pats

Dwayne Bowe put up numbers uncommon for a rookie wideout in 2007. His 70-995-14.2-5 stat line was easily the best among all first-year receivers, with Calvin Johnson (48-756-15.8-5) and James Jones (47-676-14.4-2) a distant second and third. Bowe turned in this spectacular debut despite missing a big chunk of training camp due to a holdout. Clearly, the big fella was ready for the NFL.

Players usually take their biggest mental and physical leaps in year two. Bowe didn't waste this spring prepping for the Combine or the Senior Bowl he dominated in 2007. The season Bowe is coming off didn't ridiculously extend into the first week of January after an over five-week layoff between games like his senior year at LSU. For the first time as a pro, Bowe is fresh and ready.

The Chiefs visit Foxborough Sunday in a 1PM ET game. Herm Edwards and coordinator Chan Gailey's game plan will undoubtedly involve establishing the run, but New England's weakness this year will be defending the pass. Replacing Asante Samuel as the team's new "No. 1 corner," Ellis Hobbs is coming off two surgeries (shoulder, sports hernia). Strong safety Rodney Harrison is going on 36, and after last Saturday's surprise cut of Fernando Bryant, the Pats' new left cornerback is rookie Terrence Wheatley.

While Harrison and FS James Sanders will be responsible for Tony Gonzalez and run stopping, Wheatley and Hobbs each figure to spend a lot of time guarding Bowe. Bowe (6'2/227) has a serious physical edge on New England's bantam duo of 5'9 corners. On Wheatley, he has five inches and 50 pounds. On Hobbs, five inches and about 35 lbs. With a good amount of single coverage likely as the Pats account for Gonzo and keep an extra defender in the box to stop Larry Johnson, Bowe should get open and out-muscle his man all day. www.kansascitychiefs.ws

The Chiefs will have to do a fair amount of passing Sunday to stay with New England's high-octane offense. As much as Gailey and Edwards would love to run it 50 times, Brodie Croyle is more likely to attempt 35-40 passes. But can Croyle get Bowe the ball? If Croyle showed anything in his winless 2007 season, it's that he'll force Bowe the rock. A safe bet would give Bowe 10-12 targets and 7-9 catches. Throw in his nasty after-the-catch ability and luck out with a few red-zone targets, and Bowe could turn those 7-9 grabs into 80-100 yards and 1-2 scores.

While you contemplate why you wouldn't start Dwayne Bowe in Week 1, here is an update on key fantasy injury situations around the league...


Note: You can get the weekly stat projections of all these players mentioned in our Rotoworld.com Season Pass. For those new to this site, it has a nifty tool called the Rotoworld Oracle, which takes in the stat projections, your league's custom scoring and roster configuration, and advices you on exactly who to start each week. It's less than a $1 a week, and it's only one of the many tools and content in the package. Click here to check it out, might be the best money you ever spent.

Important Week 1 Game-Time Decisions

Arms
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning - Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? They're playing.

Backs
Ryan Grant - He's probable and likely to start, but faces NFC's best run defense. www.greenbaypackers.ws
Jamal Lewis - I'd bet on him playing, but he could be 'limited' in a hard matchup. www.clevelandbrowns.ws
Willis McGahee - Ray Rice is likely to start, see bulk of the workload on Sunday. www.baltimoreravens.ws
Deuce McAllister - Practiced all week, but his role could be minimal in opener.
Kenny Watson - Probable, but he's only a small threat to Chris Perry's workload.
Aaron Stecker - Questionable and unlikely to play after missing practice Friday.
Maurice Hicks - Listed as doubtful; Aundrae Allison to return kicks for the Vikes.

Wides
Laveranues Coles - Thigh injury is unlikely to prevent Coles from facing Miami. www.newyorkjets.ws
Joey Galloway - Groin injury is still bugging Galloway, but he should be in pads. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
Reggie Brown - Doubtful, could be in danger of losing job to DeSean Jackson.
Antonio Bryant - Named a starter this week, but is a risky Week 1 fantasy bet.
James Jones - Doubtful; Packers could use frequent two-TE sets Monday night.
Reggie Williams - He's probable and will start, but could be in a snaps rotation.
Javon Walker - Walker won't start on Monday if he misses Saturday's practice.
Isaiah Stanback - Fully expected to play, serve as Dallas' third receiver @ CLE.
Michael Clayton - Bucs' third receiver is uncertain to play against New Orleans.
Will Franklin, Maurice Price - Neither is expected to be active in Foxborough.
Joshua Cribbs - High ankle sprain seems likely to prevent Cribbs from playing.

Ends
Antonio Gates - Gates is virtually certain to start after practicing fully all week. www.sandiegochargers.ws
Todd Heap - Listed as probable; Heap may be Joe Flacco's go-to target early on.
Ben Watson - Look for David Thomas to be Patriots' starting TE against Chiefs.
Ben Patrick - Cards' No. 2 tight end ready to resume role behind Leonard Pope.

Legs
Phil Dawson - Limited in Friday's practice, but Dawson will start against Dallas.

Already Ruled Out for Week 1

Arms
Kyle Boller, Troy Smith - Todd Bouman will back up Joe Flacco on opening day.

Backs
Ryan Torain - Broncos pray other injuries don't force Torain to be placed on I.R.
Carnell Williams - On PUP and won't play before Week 7, if he does at all in '08.
Chris Brown - Went on injured reserve; Ahman Green to start season for Texans.
Jesse Chatman - Jets will roll with two tailbacks until he comes off suspension.
Anthony Alridge - Rookie impressed in training camp, but is out for the season.

Wides
Brandon Marshall - Will return in Week 2 to face Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie.
Steve Smith (Panthers) - He is suspended for the first two games of the season.
Kevin Curtis - Sports hernia surgery could keep Curtis sidelined until midseason.
Deion Branch - Don't count on Branch being a fantasy asset until Week 5 at best.
Jerry Porter - Matt Jones picks up a start in his place; Porter may return in Week 2.
Bobby Engram - Could contribute as a slot receiver after Seahawks' Week 4 bye.
Chris Henry - Will come off suspension in Week 5 to steal looks from Ben Utecht.
Sam Hurd, Miles Austin - With these two out, Jason Witten will see more targets.
Ben Obomanu - In case you haven't heard, Obomanu has been lost for the year.
Drew Carter - Shelved for the season; Ashley Lelie is now Raiders' third receiver.
Joe Jurevicius - On PUP list to start the year, but don't expect him to contribute.
David Clowney - Jets kept him on the team, but Clowney's return date is unclear.
Donnie Avery - First wideout drafted in April is unlikely to make a sizable impact.

Ends
None of significance.

Legs
None of significance.



Week 1 Matchups to Exploit/Avoid

Lions RB Kevin Smith @ Falcons
Time: 1:00PM ET

There may not be a better week to play Smith for the rest of the season, as the rookie's carries could be cut into heavily going forward with Rudi Johnson aboard. Coordinator Jim Colletto hinted Thursday that Rudi may play some in Sunday's opener, but he's had less than a week to digest the playbook and is transitioning to a new running scheme. The Bengals used power running, and Rudi's never ran behind zone blocks. Colletto is striving for a balanced attack and Smith is a good bet for 20 touches. With their passing game humming, the Lions shouldn't face a seven-man front all day as Atlanta retreats in a Cover 2 zone, so Smith will have lanes. On the Georgia Dome turf, Smith's mid-4.4 speed should be accentuated. He's a high-upside flex start who could be prime sell-high trade bait heading to Week 2.

Patriots RB Laurence Maroney vs. Chiefs
Time: 1:00PM ET

The Patriots' decision to keep five ball carriers (Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, and Heath Evans) on the roster may not bode well for Maroney's chances of being a feature back. While Faulk is suspended for Week 1 and New England projects to be successful on the ground against a mediocre K.C. front seven, Maroney could be headed for an early-season committee role not unlike 2007. Jordan has already been tabbed as the primary back in hurry-up situations and Morris remains a decent bet for goal-line carries. It doesn't help that the Pats lost possibly their best guard, Stephen Neal, to PUP and RT Ryan O'Callaghan to injured reserve. Gregg Rosenthal predicts a very aggressive game plan from coordinator Josh McDaniels in Week 1. Maroney looks like a risky RB2 play.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith vs. Rams
Time: 1:00PM ET

Everyone's talking about rookie receiver DeSean Jackson, but the biggest beneficiary of Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown's injuries could be the Eagles' franchise player. Smith, who's healthier than ever and in a contract year, gets a great matchup against a Rams defense that's never been great in tight end coverage. Smith will be guarded by first-year starting SAM linebacker Quinton Culberson on first and second downs, and 32-year-old strong safety Corey Chavous in obvious passing situations. St. Louis forgot to bring in offseason competition for Chavous, who's been a liability since signing in 2006. The Eagles have installed multiple plays aimed at getting Smith the rock in red-zone packages and he'll be a fair bet to score on Sunday.

Bengals RB Chris Perry @ Ravens
Time: 1:00PM ET

In theory, a matchup against Baltimore is never attractive. But age is catching up with the unit, and that doesn't mesh well with an offense that will struggle to sustain drives and keep the defense fresh. The secondary is in shambles, with FS Ed Reed nursing a shoulder injury that could end his season at any point, and starting CBs Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister both over 31 and coming off injuries of their own. Baltimore could be in a nickel defense all Sunday to give these wounded parts support. Also, DT Kelly Gregg (knee) is unlikely to play, and he is the key to Baltimore's inside run defense. Perry, who's taken over as the Bengals' every-down back, appears primed for a big Game 1 in a season that could see this Ravens defense fall off a cliff.

Chargers WR Vincent Jackson vs. Panthers
Time: 4:15PM ET

The biggest mismatch in Week 1 of the NFL is set to take place at Qualcomm Stadium. The Bolts are minus LT Marcus McNeill (neck), and will replace him with 32-year-old former guard L.J. Shelton. He'll square off against Julius Peppers, a contract-year right end whose athleticism dwarfs Shelton's. Don't expect Philip Rivers to have much time to pass, which could negate any deep-route running by the Chargers. Vincent Jackson's main role in Norv Turner's offense is stretching the field, but Jackson could end up mostly blocking. Antonio Gates' return also doesn't help Jackson's cause. Look for San Diego's game plan to be run heavy and Gates and Chris Chambers to dominate the available targets, but I wouldn't expect Rivers to attempt more than 25 passes.

Panthers RBs @ San Diego
Time: 4:15PM ET

In the same game, it'd be a good idea to watch Carolina's backfield rather than invest in it for fantasy purposes. The matchup against San Diego's stout front seven is already poor, and we don't know for sure how the Panthers will divide carries between starter DeAngelo Williams and first-round pick Jonathan Stewart. The local beat believes it'll be a 16:12 split in Williams' favor, but Williams is unlikely to get goal-line carries and would be a low-upside flex start. This is a game to watch and learn from if you're a Panthers running back owner, not gamble on.

Vikings WR Bernard Berrian @ Packers
Time: 7:00PM ET Monday night

If you've considered starting Bernard Berrian in Monday night's contest, think again. Not only is he coming off turf toe and his inaccurate quarterback a knee injury, the Packers' press corners have Berrian's number. In the two games he played against Green Bay as a member of the Bears last season, Berrian managed stat lines of just 1-10-0 (in Week 5) and 1-14-0 (in Week 16). The 185-pound deep threat always has the potential to go the distance, but that's highly unlikely as Charles Woodson and Al Harris jam the heck out of Berrian at the line of scrimmage and Tarvaris Jackson misses him deep. Jackson was by far the league's worst long passer in 2007, completing a measly four of his 36 attempts of 20 yards or longer. And with squatty guard taking suspended LT Bryant McKinnie's place on Jackson's blind side, you can bet that the young signal caller will struggle to drop back more than two steps all night Monday.

Reply Absolutely Not to the Following Questions

> Does Fred Smoot have good hands?

> Is Lou Holtz sane?

> Does that make him any less cool?

> Should Eagles MLB Stewart Bradley be on your IDP waiver wire?

> Is this exchange normal?

> Would Shaun Alexander be a good pickup for Cincinnati?

[Hache Man]

A Season Changed
A game can change in an instant

One of the reasons we love football is its suddenness. There is an immediacy involved when any play can alter the course of the game. When Tom Brady's knee buckled under Kansas City safety Bernard Pollard's hit, the Patriots-Chiefs game abruptly turned into a slugfest. New England quickly changed from a highly aggressive aerial assault to a conservative-run based attack. The Patriots were lucky to get a 17-10 win at home against the Chiefs. The record setting Patriots of 2007 were dead. They were replaced by an outfit reminiscent of New England's efficient 2001 team; the season Brady replaced the team's injured star quarterback early in the season.

A season can change in an instant

Immediately Patriots, players, coaches, season ticket holders, and Brady owners feared the worst. And their fears were realized by 7:15 ET, when Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports broke the news. Torn ACL, with more ligament damage possible. Brady's season was over. Suddenly the Patriots were just another team hoping to claw for a playoff spot. Suddenly Randy Moss and Wes Welker were just another pair of awesome receiver talents who could be held back by shaky quarterback play. Moss goes from the clear-cut number one receiver to something less. An every week fantasy starter, a WR1, but one filled with uncertainty. Will Moss stay as well behaved under Matt Cassel? Welker figures to get hurt more than anyone. His timing with Brady was practically telepathic. Welker had five targets in the first two drives with Brady, then only five more the rest of the game. He and Cassel appeared to miscommunicate on a pair of attempts. One of the steadiest players in fantasy last season, Welker now looks closer to an excellent WR3 rather than a possible top-15 wideout.

Brady was supposed to be the "safe pick" in fantasy leagues, but we should know by now there is no such thing. His owners have almost no choice but to pick up Matt Cassel. There is good reason to doubt Cassel's competence – he hasn't started a game since high school – but he played well in relief Sunday. His snazzy 8.4 yards-per-attempt average actually bested Brady's first quarter work. Considering the weapons at Cassel's disposal, he can be a top-15 quarterback or greater. There is plenty of boom-or-bust to him, though. He could flame out or provide sneaky yardage on a team built to pass first. Even risk-taking owners of other shaky QB2s like Jason Campbell, Vince Young, and Jeff Garcia should consider Cassel.

The Patriots will run the football more. The first eight offensive plays were passes Sunday. When Brady left, their pass:run ratio was 11:4. After he left, the ratio was 17:27.

Brady is part of our Week 1 Injury analysis recap on Season Pass.

Make no mistake; the Patriots should be able to run well. Logan Mankins is as fierce a run blocker as there is in the game. Even without Kevin Faulk available Sunday, the Patriots used their backfield depth with Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and Heath Evans getting into the mix. As any Laurence Maroney owner will bemoan, Morris actually played more than the Patriots starter. Morris, in fact, is nearly as good a pickup as Cassel depending on your team needs. He should be owned in all leagues. Maroney owners shouldn't consider this injury a positive. No Patriot fantasy owners should. The team will score less, which doesn't help. New England may run more, but it's clear they will spread the ball around their backfield. Maroney's workload seems likely to be inconsistent and he'll be a dicey RB2. He had three carries in the first half against the Chiefs.

The Patriots didn't wait until the end of the day to call Chris Simms in for a tryout. Like the Patriots, Brady owners must quickly move on. The pity party ends Monday. Fantasy football teams have won countless championships with average quarterbacks. It's an easier spot to fill running back. Evaluate if the hole on your roster would best be filled through a trade or waivers. Then act quickly, because the fantasy football season is short.

A career can change in an instant

Ten minutes of NFL game action ago, Brady led the Patriots on a sure-to-be-timeless drive. It was a 12-play march into the teeth of a ferocious Giants defense that was capped by a Randy Moss touchdown. Who else? It was to be the postcard picture from a perfect season.

Such a short time later, it's fair to wonder if we will ever see the same Tom Brady again. When the 2007 MVP returns, he will be 32 years old and coming off major reconstructive surgery. We were never likely to see anything close to fifty touchdowns again from Brady anyhow.

Keeper and dynasty league owners doubly feel Brady's pain because their untouchable asset now looks fragile. Sure, he'll probably play at a high level again. But would you rather own Brady in a keeper league or Tony Romo? How about Peyton Manning? How about (gasp) Jay Cutler? The solid-but-unspectacular numbers Brady put up before 2007 seem like a reasonable goal for Brady in a post-surgery world.

A league can change in an instant

The sooner you forget about 2007, the better. The Colts and Chargers lost at home to NFC teams who missed last year's playoffs. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood gained 282 more yards Sunday than Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Willie Parker is a touchdown-scoring machine again. Matt Cassel is at the controls of the former greatest offense of all time.

If you are a true football fan, Tom Brady's injury was tough to swallow. But with that disappointment comes the knowledge that this season will be irrevocably different than the last. It is new, it is wide open and unpredictable; it will change in an instant again and again. And that's not all bad.

[Hache Man]

The Morning After

We've covered the Brady fallout. Now let's get right into our weekly look around the league in the Morning After.

The Kids are all right

1. Chris Johnson is the truth; just ask Rotoworld writer Chris Wesseling any moment of the day. If Johnson stays on the field, the kid is golden. Some cramps forced him off in the fourth quarter Sunday against the Titans, which evened up his carry split with LenDale White. But Johnson dominated the workload and production until then, when White scored a touchdown that saved his afternoon. The most impressive part of Johnson's 127 total yards was that he did it without any gains over 20 yards. The big gains are coming. www.tennesseetitans.ws

"There's going to be different Sundays where (White's) going and I'm not," Johnson said, "and he is going to get more opportunities than I am." Perhaps. The Titans may have to keep this split close to keep Johnson fresh, but it's clear they'd prefer him to lead the way.

2. Watching my man Matt Forte pick, dodge, squeeze, and jump through holes Sunday night, I was reminded of one player: Fred Taylor. And I mean the healthy Fred Taylor, in the highest compliment possible. Forte could be better in the receiving game, which makes up for lesser top-end speed. As long as the Bears don't run him into the ground, owners have a good-looking RB2 option.

3. So Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan only had 290 passing yards between them. But they're competent! Ryan made Michael Jenkins look like a deep threat, a trick five Falcons quarterbacks before him couldn't pull off. Flacco limited the Ravens offense, as expected, but who knew he had a 38-yard touchdown run in him? All rookie quarterback struggle, it's a matter of degree. Perhaps these two can keep their heads above water for a while.

Don't Panic

1. It's hard to overstate how poorly Cincinnati looked. Baltimore deserves most of the credit, but the amount of broken plays and miscommunications between Carson Palmer and his receivers was unacceptable. You could blame it on the lack of time together in August ... except similar mistakes happened last season. Marvin Lewis was also way too eager to run on fourth down to terrible results. (While Chris Perry will have his days, the Ravens defense will make most runners look poor.)

But these are the Bengals. They are Colts Light. Carson Palmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chad Johnson are among the most consistent fantasy assets of the last five years. They usually put up numbers in bad times. I'll hit the panic button if they struggle against a normal defense. Too bad they are stuck facing Tennessee's fearsome squad next.

2. Braylon Edwards had more drops than catches. Derek Anderson was out of synch. But this Cleveland team is too talented not to score and they had a very difficult Week 1 draw. Only panic with Anderson if this Browns team has a losing record halfway through the season. Then the calls for Brady Quinn will pick up. Anderson could use some help from his defense. www.clevelandbrowns.ws

3. There are lots of ways to look at the Colts offensive effort Sunday night.

The good: Peyton Manning looked healthy, even if he was very rusty. He put up 257 yards and a touchdown even in a shaky performance. Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison caught 18 passes between them on a slow night. That's why we love the Colts. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

The bad: Indy's offensive line, short their starting guards and center from last season, got pushed around. Joseph Addai had no room to run. It took injury-prone Dallas Clark less than a half to go become a walking questionable tag again.

I'll take the optimistic approach. Manning will get his legs underneath him in time. Anthony Gonzalez is a more than capable replacement for Clark on the field, with Wayne moving to the slot. The offensive line remains a big concern, but line coach Howard Mudd always manages to find a way.

Some Panic is Acceptable

1. Maurice Morris and Nate Burleson are now hurt, along with Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. Hasselbeck completed 17-of-41 passes coming off a back injury. Julius Jones had one yard on seven carries before garbage time against the Bills. Buffalo's defense is better than people think, but the consistent Seahawks offense looked to be in trouble before the opener. They definitely do now.

2. I suspect Jeff Garcia is on a short leash this season. And his performance Sunday (41 attempts, 221 yards) didn't make it any longer. Neither does his ankle injury. Brian Griese, anyone? www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

3. The Jaguars have lost their starting center, both starting guards, and a key reserve at tackle. Their top reserve at guard may also be hurt. Their offense was built on the strength of the offensive line. Now it's a huge question mark. David Garrard, Fred Taylor, and Maurice Jones-Drew are talented enough to overcome some issues, but that is a lot of carnage to deal with. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws

4. Robert Meachem was a healthy scratch, people. He's behind Lance Moore on the depth chart. He's not a sleeper and is a waste of fantasy roster space.

Preaseason Carryover?

1. Calvin Johnson kept the preseason hype going, leading the Lions with seven catches and 107 yards. Both numbers are career highs. It will be interesting to see if Roy Williams leads the way next time or if this is a trend that will continue. www.detroitlions.ws

2. The Rams offense looked like a 2007 carryover. Torry Holt vanished, Steven Jackson was stuffed, Drew Bennett got hurt, and Marc Bulger continued to make us forget about the guy we saw two years ago. The Eagles defense has a chance to be dominant, though. Give the Rams some time to learn Al Saunders' offense.

See, the preseason is phony!

The Lions were 4-0 in the preseason, and then got blasted by a Falcons team starting a rookie quarterback.

Injury Ward

Here are some of the players mentioned in our Season Pass injury column:

LaDainian Tomlinson
Maurice Morris
Brodie Croyle
Marion Barber
Vince Young
Todd Heap
Jamal Lewis

Also in Season Pass on Monday: Our exclusive target report, workload report, and game analysis recaps with fantasy tips from our staff of writers. So, uh, check it out. Or I might have to get a real job someday.


Yeah, this might work

1. Michael Turner rightfully got the headlines with 220 yards and two touchdowns, but don't forget about his backup. Jerious Norwood also put together a top-ten performance with 14 carries, 99 total yards, and a touchdown. The Falcons might resemble the '07 Raiders, running often and effectively despite a poor passing attack. Now if only they could play the Lions 15 more times. Detroit's star-making rush defense heads home to host Ryan Grant.

2. The second-year version of Trent Edwards looks promising. The threw 30 composed attempts against a strong Seattle pass defense, which is a great sign for Lee Evans owners. In a contract push, this could be the season we get some consistency from Evans. And the two plays over 30 yards for Evans helps quiet concerns that Edwards can't hit the big play.

3. Brett Favre magic traveled to his new uniform. While the Jets played conservatively, Favre still put up solid numbers and an 8.8 YPA in his first start for Gang Green. If he does it against the Pats on Sunday, I'll officially be convinced he's a fantasy starter again.

4. Reggie Bush has teased us before, so he'll have to prove he can stay consistent. After all, he only posted a 3.6 YPC Sunday. But PPR owners don't really care if he can continue his crazy mojo in the passing game. Maybe all those puff pieces about his "rededication" worked. Or maybe it's Kardashian power.

5. It's the system in Philadelphia, not the receivers. How else to explain DeSean Jackson, Greg Lewis, and Baskett going over 100 yards? Oh yeah, it's the quarterback too.

Committee Report

1. Miami: Ronnie Brown had nine touches for 51 yards. Ricky Williams had 14 touches for 39 yards. This doesn't let all the air out of the Ricky sleeper balloon, but it's a good sign for Brown owners that he's on his way back. Look for this split to remain close for a while.

2. Carolina: DeAngelo Williams had 18 carries to ten for Jonathan Stewart. Both were very effective, but Williams didn't come out of the game near the goal line.

3. Tampa: The worst fears of Earnest Graham owners were realized … almost. Graham only had ten carries to nine for Warrick Dunn. But Graham played so well, he still topped 100 total yards.

4. New Orleans: Pierre Thomas, not Deuce McAllister or Aaron Stecker, split carries with Reggie Bush. Thomas finished with 63 effective total yards. The Saints can call Deuce injured to save face, but the reality is he was benched. You can drop him.

5. Dallas: Felix Jones is the best-looking 40-year-old looking rookie I've ever seen. He could also be the most talented rookie runner in this class, which is saying a lot. But don't get too carried away with his nine carries. He didn't have any in the first half when the game was close and Marion Barber was healthy. Of course Barber might not stay healthy for long at this rate.

Offensive minefield

Offenses are more consistent year-to-year than defense. That's one reason why so many quarterbacks started to go early in fantasy drafts. It's only a week, but the consistent offenses in New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh are on the right track. And owners of Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, and Ben Roethlisberger are glad they dodged Sunday's minefield.

Fluky Week 1 tight ends

Each Week 1, a few fluky tight end performances seem to pop up. Then it's my job as a fantasy writer to tell you not to overreact. Chris Baker, Alex Smith, and Courtney Anderson's efforts in 2005 come to mind.

This year, a slew of candidates emerged. The top-five tight ends in PPR leagues Sunday were Anthony Fasano, Donte Rosario, Robert Royal, Bo Scaife, and David Martin. (Chad Pennington loves his tight ends.) Proving once again, we know nothing.

They aren't all flukes, though. Royal doesn't have the talent to keep it up. Scaife and Martin aren't true starters. Fasano and Rosario have the talent to keep it up.

Rosario is a serious athlete, a player I couldn't believe as I watched in the preseason. He can be a fine TE2 with potential for more. Fasano has less upside, but could put up workmanlike stats as a fantasy reserve. Randy McMichael is another player with a strong start worth a look for the needy. Tight ends six-through-eight were Winslow, Witten, and Gates. Gates owners can breathe easy. The toe looks just fine.

Anyone looking for waiver picks … I'll put up a ranking in Pancake Blocks Monday afternoon.

The More Things Change …

Lions coach Rod Marinelli talked all off-season about Establishing The Run. But an early deficit forced Detroit to go pass wacky. They called 35 pass plays to 19 runs, and only gained 62 yards on the ground. It's like Mike Martz never left.

Speaking of Martz

Across the country in San Francisco, Martz was finally calling the running plays Marinelli always wanted. In the first half of San Francisco's game against the Cardinals, the 49ers ran 14 times and passed 14 times. J.T. O'Sullivan threw only 20 passes all game! Frank Gore wound up with 18 touches (for 151 total yards and a score) despite an absurdly low amount of team plays (44) and time of possession (22:55). The 49ers did manage to squeeze in six turnovers in their limited time. Now that sounds like a Mike Martz team.

Lucky Break?

Dwayne Bowe had two catches and twenty yards with Brodie Croyle under center for two and a half quarters. The Chiefs had three points when Croyle left. In the 18 minutes Damon Huard was in, Bowe had three grabs, 29 yards, a touchdown, and an unforgivable drop that would have tied the game. The Chiefs don't want to hear it, but their passing game, Bowe included, is better off with Huard in the lineup.

What the …

All the Ravens questions I received on Fantasy Fix Live were about Willis McGahee vs. Ray Rice. Who knew that LeRon McClain would outshine them both with 21 touches? The converted fullback looks more like a third tailback now that Lorenzo Neal is on the roster, but we still wouldn't pick him up. He'll go back to third on the depth chart next week.

[Hache Man]

Rookie Runners
One of my favorite subplots for this season is the banner crop of rookie running backs. Eleven backs went in the first three rounds of April's draft—compared to an average of just eight in the previous three years—and even beyond their draft position it's an incredibly promising long-term group with the potential to make an immediate fantasy impact.

While skipping my usual Daily Dose routine for just one day, let's take a look at how Week 1 treated the top 11 runners …

No. 4 overall: Darren McFadden, Raiders www.oaklandraiders.ws
McFadden and Justin Fargas started together Monday night and rotated carries throughout a blowout loss before McFadden left with a shoulder injury late. Averaging over five yards per carry is impressive and McFadden also added an 11-yard catch, but just 10 touches for the No. 4 overall pick is disappointing and the injury is a concern until we know more. With Fargas in the picture, McFadden's value is limited.

No. 13 overall: Jonathan Stewart, Panthers www.carolinapanthers.ws
DeAngelo Williams got the Week 1 start, but Stewart saw significant action in the first half and looked good with 44 yards on seven carries. Unfortunately he took a clear backseat after halftime, touching the ball just three times while Williams was featured extensively. Stewart surprisingly also returned kickoffs in his debut, which shows that he's definitely viewed as a backup rather than Williams' equal.

No. 22 overall: Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones didn't play much early, but took over once Marion Barber bruised his ribs and ended up with 62 yards on nine carries, including an 11-yard score. Barber is expected to play in Week 2, so Jones will continue to have a limited role. He's incredibly explosive, but it's tough to be a consistent fantasy asset on 10 touches per game. Of course, if Barber ever goes down for long he's immediately a RB2.

No. 23 overall: Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
Mendenhall got a solid-looking 10 carries in his debut, but it's important to note that all but one of them came with the Steelers up big in the second half. Willie Parker dominated the workload when the game was on the line and even scored twice from short range, which along with Mewelde Moore coming in to catch and block on passing downs leaves Mendenhall without a clear role.

No. 24 overall: Chris Johnson, Titans www.tennesseetitans.ws
Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling spent months hyping Johnson to no end, doing such a fine job touting his upside that he's on several of my keeper teams. Hopefully you bought into the hype too, as he debuted by starting over LenDale White, dominating the workload until cramping late, and totaling 127 yards on 18 touches. As Rosenthal put it in "The Morning After": Johnson is the truth.

No. 44 overall: Matt Forte, Bears
While Johnson was impressive without hitting a home run, Forte was impressive largely because of a 50-yard touchdown run that included just about everything you'd want to see from a back. He totaled 141 yards on 26 touches and is clearly already an every-down option, although backup Kevin Jones did get 13 carries. If the Bears avoid big deficits and Forte stays healthy, he'll get 300 touches.

No. 55 overall: Ray Rice, Ravens www.baltimoreravens.ws
Willis McGahee remaining on the sidelines with a knee injury gave Rice a great opportunity and he came through with 83 total yards on 25 touches. Of course, he also shared snaps with backup LeRon McClain, who was even better with 110 total yards on 21 touches. McGahee is due back as the Week 2 starter and Rice should hold off McClain to be his backup, but don't expect another 25 touches.

No. 64 overall: Kevin Smith, Lions www.detroitlons.ws
Smith's debut was far less impressive than most of the other top rookie runners, but he did get 20 touches to quiet concerns about Rudi Johnson stealing snaps. Smith had little room to run behind a shaky offensive line, but picked up some nice gains in the passing game while Johnson looked slow and touched the ball just three times. It looks like it may be more about quantity than quality for Smith.

No. 69 overall: Jacob Hester, Chargers www.sandiegochargers.ws
Hester saw extensive preseason action, but played behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, and Mike Tolbert in Week 1. Being able to slide back and forth between fullback and tailback is likely enough versatility to keep Hester active on game days even in a limited role, but barring a Tomlinson injury there's no room for him to make a fantasy impact.

No. 73 overall: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs www.kansascitychiefs.ws
Kolby Smith's back injury led to Charles debuting as Larry Johnson's backup and he totaled 34 yards on seven touches, but also missed the third-down block that left Brodie Croyle with a separated shoulder. Despite the costly mistake in pass protection Charles played often in a variety of packages Sunday, but with Smith set to return in Week 2 he may be relegated to the bench.

No. 89 overall: Steve Slaton, Texans
Ahman Green started for the Texans, but Slaton got as many touches in the first half (seven) and then took over late when Green sprained his ankle. Between the injury and a big early deficit it's tough to get a good read on how the Texans' backfield will shake out going forward, but Slaton has definitely already claimed a big role and looks likely to at worst split snaps in the near future.

[Hache Man]

The Best Laid Plans
The best laid plans of Tom Brady owners went horribly awry in the first quarter of the first game of the season. If yesterday's NFL Chat is any indication, Brady owners are going to dominate the waiver wire this week. Before you rush out to grab Matt Cassel in a flailing attempt at a season savior, a word of advice: go ahead and put in for Cassel, but work the email lines for a trade as your first line of defense.

Matt Cassel hasn't started a meaningful football game since high school, and he was inches away from getting chopped from the final 53-man roster a couple of weeks ago. As he's nobody's idea of a legit NFL starting quarterback, he shouldn't be yours either. But there are plenty of intriguing QB2s riding the pine on your fellow owners' benches. So instead of handing Cassel the keys to your franchise, try selling high on some of your Week 1 wonders and turn to more appetizing options:

a. Go the reliable veteran route by trading for Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, or Jon Kitna. All are better bets for sustained fantasy success this season.

b. Buy low on high upside QB2s coming off of Week 1 letdowns, such as Matt Schaub, Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, or David Garrard.

On to the waiver wire, where we'll see if we can strike gold again like we did last week with Chris Johnson, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, and Matt Jones. Here's how I rank the likely targets at each position this week. Full writeups of each player are below.

QUARTERBACKS

1. J.T. O'Sullivan
2. Trent Edwards
3. Matt Cassel
4. Kerry Collins
5. Damon Huard

RUNNING BACKS
1. Pierre Thomas
2. Steve Slaton
3. Sammy Morris
4. Felix Jones
5. Tim Hightower
6. Derrick Ward
7. Andre Hall/Michael Pittman
8. Kenny Watson
9. Justin Forsett

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. DeSean Jackson
2. Eddie Royal
3. Matt Jones
4. Bryant Johnson
5. Courtney Taylor
6. Hank Baskett
7. Logan Payne

TIGHT ENDS
1. Randy McMichael
2. Anthony Fasano
3. Donte Rosario
4. Bo Scaife

***

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QUARTERBACKS

J.T. O'Sullivan, 49ers - I recommended grabbing O'Sullivan last week, and while his numbers were less than impressive on the surface, he actually fared well. In a game where the Cardinals dominated the time of possession battle, JTO completed 70 percent of his passes at almost 10 yards per attempt. Better games are in store.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Trent Edwards, Bills - Edwards isn't going to blow up for 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns, but he's a mature young quarterback in an improved offense. There's not a ton of upside, but he makes for a reliable low-end QB2.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Matt Cassel, Patriots - You know how I feel about Cassel: there are better options out there for the industrious fantasy owner. That said, as long as he has Randy Moss blazing down the sidelines, he's worth of a roll of the dice as a backup with a bit of upside in the Patriots offense. Don't assume he's your savior, but feel free to grab him for depth.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Kerry Collins, Titans - It's true that the Titans wide receivers can't get separation and have no extra gear to blow by defenders. It's also true that the group tends to perform much better when Collins replaces Vince Young.

Young is out two-to-four weeks with a sprained knee, but the more engrossing story is his "refusal" to enter the game at one point in the fourth quarter before his knee injury Sunday. Young said it was simply hamstring tightness, but there's more to this story than meets the eye. There's more of a chance than you might think that this is Collins' job for a good portion of the season.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Damon Huard, Chiefs - And the Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and Larry Johnson owners breathe a sigh of relief. The Chiefs are quite possibly the worst team in the NFL with Brodie Croyle under center, but Huard immediately injects legitimacy into a stagnant offense.

Even with a poor offensive line, Huard can find Gonzalez and Bowe enough to put up QB2 numbers for as long as Croyle is sidelined with a bum shoulder.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues


RUNNING BACKS

Pierre Thomas, Saints - We advised grabbing Thomas last week as Reggie Bush's backfield partner while Deuce McAllister remains a shell of his former self. Bush stole the headlines with a fine all-around performance, so Thomas may still be flying under the radar.

Keep in mind, however, that it was Thomas who led the Saints in rushing yards Sunday. As long as he remains the No. 2 to Bush, he's worth owning in an explosive offense. He's awfully close to being worthy of a weekly flex play.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Steve Slaton, Texans - Slaton was recommended last week along with Chris Taylor, but Taylor didn't receive a single carry. Meanwhile, nominal starter Ahman Green came down with an ankle injury (shocking, I know) that has the team scrambling for depth. Slaton remains the best bet for carries in the short-term.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Sammy Morris, Patriots - Last week we talked about the "whims of Mike Shanahan" in the Andre Hall write-up, but the whims of Bill Belichick are just as strong. There has been no indication that Laurence Maroney will ever be a three-down back in New England, and Morris is the clear No. 2.

He led the team in rushing yards and garnered the lone ground game touchdown Sunday against the Chiefs. Morris should remain the goal-line back going forward.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Felix Jones, Cowboys - As a highly touted rookie, Jones is owned in most leagues. If you play a shallow league, be sure to grab him in case Marion Barber's ribs become a nagging issue. Most likely, Jones will continue to have a limited role, but his obvious explosiveness makes him an intriguing stash.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Tim Hightower, Cardinals - Another back we recommended last week, Hightower continues to work his way into the backfield picture for the Cardinals. In addition to short-yardage work, Hightower has already grabbed J.J. Arrington's third-down passing game role. www.arizonacardinals.ws

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Derrick Ward, Giants - The backfield picture was hazy all preseason, but Week 1 showed us that Ward is the clear No. 2 to Jacobs. He's worth a handcuff with Jacobs' injury history, but there's a good possibility of splitting time with Ahmad Bradshaw under that scenario. www.newyorkgiants.ws

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Andre Hall/Michael Pittman, Broncos - This backfield is a mess. Selvin Young was supposed to be the starter with Hall getting short-yardage and red zone work. Instead, Hall led the team in attempts while Pittman took over the short-yardage role. Pittman may be worth a look in TD-heavy scoring leagues, but Hall is the backup to own here.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Kenny Watson, Bengals - Chris Perry had a disappointing opener, but let's face it: the Ravens run defense is murderous. It doesn't get any easier with the Titans coming to town, and Watson is waiting in the wings should injury or poor play necessitate a larger role.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Justin Forsett, Seahawks - The destitute man's Maurice Jones-Drew had an impressive preseason and could carve out a role the next few weeks while Maurice Morris is out with a knee sprain.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues

Shaun Alexander/Cedric Benson, Free Agents - The NFL has moved on from Shaun Alexander, and so should you. Benson was in Houston for a look-see from the desperate Texans, but he remains a longshot at value. Bottom line: you're not likely to be kicking yourself later for failing to pick up either one of these backs.

Recommendation: Pass


WIDE RECEIVERS

DeSean Jackson, Eagles - Jackson was our No. 1 recommendation at receiver last week, so here's hoping you picked him up before he tortured Rams corner Tye Hill repeatedly in the opener. He should be at the top of your waiver options in PPR leagues and is worth adding in basic scoring leagues as well.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Eddie Royal, Broncos - Another receiver from last week's Waiver Wired, Royal exploded onto the scene on national TV Monday night. He's going to take a back seat to Brandon Marshall the rest of the season, but the talent and the faith of his quarterback and head coach were on full display.

Don't expect these blow-ups with regularity, but do expect a solid No. 2 receiver for the Broncos. Astute Tom Brady owners with Royal on their rosters will want to package the rookie after his sell-high performance for an upgrade at quarterback.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Matt Jones, Jaguars - After leading the team in receiving all pre-season, Jones was clearly the Jags best option in the opener as well. As the only receiver making a difference in Jacksonville, he could very well keep his starting job even when Jerry Porter returns. I may be a glutton for punishment, but I think Jones is the best bet to lead the Jags receivers in fantasy points this season. www.jacksonvillejaguars.ws

Recommendation: Should be owned 12-team leagues

Bryant Johnson, 49ers - Rookie Josh Morgan stole the hype and veteran Isaac Bruce was the assumed favorite target, but Johnson may be the best bet to emerge as the Niners top fantasy receiver. Feel free to grab him as a No. 5 wide receiver if you have an opening.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Courtney Taylor, Seahawks - We hyped Taylor last week only to see him open with a disappointing performance against Buffalo. Nevertheless, attrition has taken its toll on the Seahawks receiving corps and has left Taylor as the last man standing for the No. 1 spot. There's no guarantee of success after Sunday's performance, but he gets an "A+" for opportunity

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Hank Baskett, Eagles - Baskett isn't going to be highly targeted, but his big play ability may be worth a roll of the dice for as long as Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis remain out.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues

Logan Payne, Seahawks - A Gregg Rosenthal and Seattle front office favorite, Payne may be battling backup quarterback Seneca Wallace for the Week 2 starting spot opposite Courtney Taylor. Payne is the better bet for a high catch total.

Dynasty leaguers may want to look Jordan Kent's way in hopes that the raw athlete catches lightning in a bottle while the veterans occupy the M.A.S.H. unit.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues

TIGHT ENDS

Randy McMichael, Rams- It speaks well to McMichael's '08 value that he was able to haul in five passes for 77 yards in a game where the rest of the offense sputtered and fell flat. Offensive coordinator Al Saunders promised a prominent pass-catching role for his tight end, and he delivered.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - Fasano was featured here last week, but an eight-catch performance exceeded our expectations. Chad Pennington completed 26 passes Sunday with 12 of them going to tight ends, so it's safe to say Fasano will continue to be featured in Dan Henning's offense. The former second round draft pick makes for a high ceiling TE2 in PPR leagues. www.miamidolphins.ws

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Donte Rosario, Panthers - Teams often talk about a backup player emerging during the preseason, but it's not often that the talk turns to action so quickly. The Panthers have been trying to tell us about Rosario and his emerging role in the offense, but fantasy owners remained skeptical.

He's a legit talent, so Dynasty leaguers especially should not chalk this up to a fluky performance. Keep an eye on his day-to-day foot sprain, but he's worth targeting as a TE2.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Bo Scaife, Titans - Despite newcomer Alge Crumpler's status as the starter, it was Scaife who led the Titans in receiving Sunday with 105 yards on six catches. Expect Crumpler to emerge and Week 1 to be Scaife's high water mark.

Recommendation: Pass


TEAM DEFENSE

Titans - The best defense I saw all day Sunday was Tennessee's. The Jags' normally dominant rushing game was overwhelmed with Albert Haynesworth & Co. storming the backfield on a regular basis. If the Titans went undrafted in your league, don't hesitate to add them; they're elite.
www.tennesseetitans.ws

Bills - With Rosoe Parrish in the return game and an improved defense led by former Jags All-Pro Marcus Stroud, the Bills defense is worth a look if you accidentally fell for the Colts hype on draft day. www.buffalobills.ws

Eagles - The Eagles defense smothered the Rams all game, but they won't have it that easy every week. They do, however, have an explosive return man in DeSean Jackson.

[Hache Man]

Tough Times for VY10
Vince Young tried to take himself out of Sunday's game, either due to hamstring soreness or being upset at the home crowd booing him following an interception, depending on which account you believe. Coach Jeff Fisher convinced him to go back in and moments later Young suffered a sprained left knee that's expected to keep him sidelined for at least 2-4 weeks.

While that series of events is plenty interesting, it pales in comparison to what has gone on since. According to the Nashville Tennessean, he initially balked at undergoing an MRI exam and then went off the grid Monday night, at which point police spent several hours searching for him at the Titans' request. Young then met with a psychologist, who expressed concerns about his mindset and safety.

According to one of his friends Young was simply hanging out at his house and watching Monday Night Football while police searched for him, but Young's mom painted a more concerning picture Tuesday. "Vince has gone through a whole lot as a young person," Felicia Young said. "It's hard, all he's going through right now. He's hurting inside and out."

She added that Young "will be fine if people are prayerful and help my baby out" because "he just needs a lot of love and support" instead of "being ridiculed and persecuted and talked about and not being treated very well." From the events of Monday night to Young's mother hinting that he may not want to play football any longer, there's obviously a lot more to this story than meets the eye.

What's clear right now is that Young won't be playing for at least 2-4 weeks and the Titans are preparing for life without him by signing Chris Simms to back up veteran Kerry Collins. There's speculation that Young won't have a job to reclaim once healthy, but that seems wildly premature at this point, especially given how unlikely it is that Collins thrives in his absence.

While Young's story hopefully has a happy ending whether or not he gets back on the field next month, here are some other notes from around football …

* Rotoworld football czar and Fred Savage impersonator Gregg Rosenthal drove the Jay Cutler bandwagon during the offseason, calling him "the next great NFL quarterback" and placing him higher in the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings than nearly every other publication. It's only one game, of course, but so far at least the Cutler hype looks warranted and then some.

Rosenthal's favorite breakout candidate threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns Monday night against a Raiders defense that was actually quite good against the pass last season. Not only did Cutler average a robust 12.5 yards per throw, he did all that damage without stud wideout Brandon Marshall, who caught a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other receiver in football last season.

With rookie Eddie Royal torching DeAngelo Hall for 146 yards on nine catches in NFL his debut and Marshall now back from his one-game suspension, Cutler has some serious weapons at his disposal. Plus, while Tony Scheffler remains stuck in the doghouse because of his weak blocking, he's still among the best pass-catching tight ends in football.

Toss in Brandon Stokley and pass-first play-calling to go along with what figures to be a solid running game, and Cutler is set up perfectly for success. His early schedule is relatively tough, with matchups against the Chargers, Bucs, Jaguars, and Patriots in the next six weeks, but following a Week 8 bye Cutler has a string of favorable on-paper opponents that set him up for a huge fantasy impact.

* Ryan Grant looked good Monday night against Minnesota's normally stout run defense, averaging 7.7 yards per carry and breaking a 57-yard gain after battling hamstring problems during the preseason. However, he was limited to just 12 touches in a close game and coach Mike McCarthy revealed Tuesday that Grant was "very sore" at halftime.

Grant's big run came in the second half, but he was caught from behind near the goal line and sat out Green Bay's final drive. For now it sounds like he'll play in Week 2, which is excellent news given the extremely favorable matchup against Detroit's awful run defense, but another relatively light workload seems likely and Brandon Jackson should again see plenty of action. Consider Grant a RB2.

* Maurice Morris started Sunday, but exited in the third quarter with a knee injury and said Tuesday that he expects to miss "a couple weeks." His injury and the team's decision to release preseason standout Justin Forsett opens the door for Julius Jones to get a big workload. With only T.J. Duckett and Leonard Weaver around to steal snaps, Jones should get 15-20 touches against the 49ers.

Two-Minute Drill: Ricky Williams had 14 touches versus nine for Ronnie Brown in Week 1 and coach Tony Sparano said Monday that he anticipates the split being "kind of even" in the future … It should come as no surprise that fantasy nation villain Mike Shanahan had Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and Michael Pittman split snaps Monday night, with Pittman taking goal-line duties … Jon Gruden said Monday that he wants Earnest Graham to get more touches after letting Warrick Dunn steal too many snaps in Week 1 … A strained foot has taken some of the air out of Dante Rosario's breakout season opener, but he's definitely someone to keep a close eye on … Backup quarterback Seneca Wallace returned punts Sunday and could see extended action at wideout with Seattle's receiving corps ravaged by injuries … Coach Sean Payton said Monday that Robert Meachem is unlikely to be a healthy scratch every week, but he's not close to emerging with a big role … Ernest Wilford was also a healthy Week 1 scratch, but Sparano said Monday that the Dolphins "will try to find some spots" for him … Bernard Pollard will not be fined for the hit that caused Tom Brady's season-ending knee injury.

Red Zone: Darren McFadden has been diagnosed with a shoulder stinger after leaving Monday night's game in the fourth quarter, but there's no indication that the injury is considered serious … After toughing it out for one game, Shawne Merriman has opted for the season-ending knee surgery that multiple doctors recommended last month … Ben Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder Sunday when Mario Williams slammed him down on a sack, but he's expected to be fine for Week 2 … LaDainian Tomlinson said after Sunday's game that he has turf toe, but doesn't anticipate missing any time … Coach John Harbaugh said Monday that he's "very confident" Willis McGahee (knee) will play in Week 2 … Signed to a ridiculous contract this offseason, Javon Walker (hamstring) began his Raiders career by being inactive Monday night … With Drew Bennett likely to miss 4-6 weeks after fracturing his foot, the Rams brought back Eddie Kennsion … Coach Andy Reid said Monday that Kevin Curtis (hernia) may return before the team's Week 7 bye … Damon Huard is set to make at least two starts, but coach Herm Edwards said Monday that Brodie Croyle (shoulder) "is not done for the year."

[Hache Man]

MCI Index: Risers and Fallers
Welcome back to the Man-Crush Index. I can only say two things after this past weekend: "Thank you, Jessica" and "I love/hate Las Vegas."

Re: Jessica If Tony Romo weren't dating Jessica Simpson, he might not have had extra motivation to keep playing after being violently driven into the Dawg Pound turf, causing my heart to literally stop beating. See, like many of you, I'm a Romo owner – had just drafted him in a high stakes Vegas league – and all worst case scenarios flooded my mind. Dislocated shoulder, broken collarbone, crushed rib cage, ruptured spleen, scurvy…

But if you were going home to a bombshell like Jessica, wouldn't you want to at least pretend that you're a man's man? Show her you're tougher than Brady Quinn, Sage Rosenfels or those other backups calling her day and night, urging her to dump you? Matt Cassel was probably texting her at halftime. So Romo got up.

Therein lies the dumb luck of football. Anything can happen. Romo gets pancaked by 1,000 pounds of man beef named Shaun Rogers, Robaire Smith and Willie McGinest, yet gets up and throws for 320 yards and a TD. Tom Brady, meanwhile, gets nicked by some spaz crawling on his hands and knees and he's out for the season . . . and this is a guy with an even hotter girlfriend! Makes no sense. (As Tom lay there cringing on the Gillette turf, cut to me in a Vegas sports book, a lone tear trickling down my cheek as Coldplay's "Fix You" plays in the background.)

Simply put, it's not worth stewing over your players' health or going Brandon Marshall on your TV if one gets hurt. I'm a lifelong Pats fan and even I'm not going bezerk because (A) the Pats will still win the weakling East at 10-6 and (B) Brady's injury is even beyond the control of all-powerful, heroic, omniscient fantasy football writers. (It helps that I'm still medicated and in denial. I can't wait to see him and Favre duel in the Meadowlands next week. Gonna be awesome.)

Re: love/hate Vegas Yes, I was out in Vegas for kickoff weekend. But sadly, I fell into the most hare-brained, Gambling 101 trap there is – losing at the tables; bet more aggressively; epic amounts of bad luck (how many times can one man start with 3's, 4's and 5's?!); inhaled the free booze; frequently hit the crazy fee ATMs. (Warning: if you're married, and have a joint checking account, this is a terrible, terrible idea.) In seconds, I was down a moronic, astronomical $1,000. A grand. Wasn't my daughter's college fund or anything, but it was enough to make me feel like puking. Trust me, I'm not hauling in Harry Potter money for my books.

I was doomed. If I returned home to my wife $1,000 short, I'd be writing this column in intensive care, holding the pen in my mouth with what's left of my teeth. Now divorced and homeless, I'd become one of those scraggly cadavers you see at casino sports books, stealing half-smoked butts from ashtrays and limping over to drop their last $20 on Guatemalan harness racing.

But early Sunday morning, after consulting my pals/spread gurus Big Dog and Shug on some possible combos, and adding one key hunch of my own, I gloomily dropped my last crumpled bills on a five-team parlay.

(Fast forward several hours…)

Seconds after a healthy Romo and Dallas closed out Cleveland (cue Phil Savage calling Joe Horn's agent in 3…2…1…) there I was, doing back handsprings across the Hilton casino. The Steelers, Eagles, Saints, Cowboys and -- my aforementioned gut call and new favorite team -- Titans over the Jags (tough defense at home against a division rival with O-line issues? C'mon.) I was practically shaking as I cashed out and netted – drumroll -- $1,063 bucks!

Yes, in 24 hours, I'd gone from feeling about as crappy as a man possibly can – on the "Vegas rock bottom scale" losing huge blackjack money is second only to being hopped on vodka-Red Bulls and marrying an underage tranny hooker at 4 a.m – to finishing $63 bucks in the black. My wife, who's about the most patient woman on earth, was still livid -- and deservedly so, 'cause she realized she married an imbecile – but I was at least still married. To my wife. Not the hooker.

My rollercoaster Vegas ride proves that you gotta roll with Lady Luck this season. Don't guzzle Draino during the lows. Don't gloat during the highs. It's only been one week. And with that, here are my Risers and Fallers.

RISERS

Matt Cassel Talk about a "penny stock-to-Enron circa 2000" value explosion. But while Cassel's now in control of a potent offense, don't expect 30 TDs. Still, Cassel knows this system and it's his job to lose. Simms and Rattay didn't even lace up the cleats, Culpepper isn't happening, so he's worth a shot for Brady owners. Or, if you're set at QB and have someone you can drop (Burleson?), pick Cassel up and trade him to the Brady owner in your league

Michael Turner: Holy Jim Brown-meets-Barry Sanders! Just wrecked the Lions. But two key words here: "the" and "Lions." Not to diminish Turner's dominance – has he been injecting Botox and/or cinderblocks into his thighs since San Diego? – but the Lions have a putrid run D (318 total yards to Turner and Jerious Norwood; poor tackling is an understatement; bad idea trading Shaun Rogers). www.atlantafalcons.ws

And the Falcon's O-line, which ain't exactly the Redskins Hogs, will face tougher challenges, starting next week facing the Bucs and Monte Kiffin. If you're deep at RB but hurtin' at QB (Brady owner?), maybe target a RB-starved team and package the "220 yard" Turner & a lesser QB for a stud QB, e.g. Turner and Delhomme/Rivers for Romo.

DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal: Apologies to Brian Westbrook, but Jackson was the most dynamic player on the field. His only value knock is McNabb also spread the love to Greg Lewis, Hank Baskett, L.J. Smith, Jason Avant, Harold Carmichael, and Mike Quick. But Jackson is here to stay. As for Royal, he's also got competition for catches (Marshall back this week) but he's going to be a big part of that offense. If you're deep at WR, sell high on these guys' monster weeks and make a run at Braylon, Housh, Santonio or another stud WR who had a down week. Never hurts to prey on your fellow owners' frustrations. (And for the record, I think Jackson's stock stays higher than Royal's.)

Randy McMichael: Someone I mentioned almost as an aside in my "risers" section last week. Even in the Rams trainwreck offense – every time I looked at that game, Bulger was wildly backpedaling and dumping "passes" four yards behind Steven Jackson's feet -- McMichael hauled in 5 catches/77 yards. Maybe this Al Saunders fella knows something about stud-ifying tight ends, eh? McMike is no fluke, so if you drafted him as a backup to a Heap/Dallas Clark, congrats. If you have a Cooley-type starting, trade Cooley on his bigger name value for an upgrade elsewhere.

Aaron Rodgers: The kid looked poised and effective Monday night, zinging some tough throws under pressure (the first TD to Korey Hall was, well, Favre-esque). You probably drafted him as a QB2. Keep it that way, but a few more solid games and he might let you trade your QB1 or package him in a deal to a QB-starved team. www.greenbaypackers.ws

Julius Jones, RB, SEA: Don't get excited, Julius . . . it's nothing you did. It's just that your RBBC mate, Mo Morris, is out now, meaning you get the carries. Woo-hoo. Another reason not to get excited? Your offense blows, your QB has a balky back and your new WR1 is maybe the tenth best "Taylor" in the NFL. But hey, a non-RBBC back is rare, and that Holmgren's talking to Joe Horn's people says the passing game is not exactly on the rise.

Reggie Bush: Now that's the Reggie Bush that everyone ripped the Texans for passing on! A dervish out of the backfield, Bush looked elusive and displayed his great hands, all to the tune of about 1,038 total yards. And now that Colston is out at least a month, his PPR numbers should soar.

Fast Willie: That was indeed fast. Parker topped his 2007 TD total (2) in one game, logging three scores. The Steelers looked legit, especially the running game, and especially considering the Texans had one of the rising sleeper D's in the league (Mario, DeMeco, et al). Flip side, this bodes well for Andre Johnson (10 catches/112 yards) if the Houston D is weaker than expected.

FALLERS

Nate Burleson: This message brought to you by the Department of the Ridiculously Obvious.

Jeff Garcia: Even before his ankle injury, Brian Griese was lurking in the shadows. Griese looks set to start this weekend and keep the job unless he completely tanks. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

Wes Welker: This one hurts. Welker was my biggest man-crush last season. But he's now lost Brady and that precise, accurate timing on Welker's bread-and-butter slants. Maybe Cassel can step in. But the jury's out, so Welker -- not Moss -- figures to be the WR most affected by Brady's loss because Cassel can always pull a Culpepper and just huck it up for Moss, who'll simply out-jump everyone. Hold him for now, of course, but watch closely.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Dear LT, don't take yourself out at the goal line. Don't run three yards and fall down into a pile when you have the talent to fly over said pile or any other obstacle on the field. Not panicking on you, and your 97 yards and 4.6 YPC was ohhhhkay, but just sayin' . . . wasn't the most confidence-inspiring debut for owners who considered A.P. or Westbrook at #1. www.sandiegochargers.ws

Matt Hasselbeck: The only way this season could have started worse for Seattle fans is if they (A) got dominated by the Bills, (B) had to shoot up their QB's bad back before the game, (C) lost their "top" receiver, (D) a rich, Oklahoma City hillbilly stole their hoops team, and (E) their baseball team went from AL West favorite to bumbling doormat. Oh, wait. All that stuff happened. Hasselbeck has little trade value right now, but if you have a decent backup, or can take a flier on one of the QBs Chris Wesseling suggests in Waiver Wired, unload Hass for a mid-level WR or RB. It's gonna get a lot worse in Seattle.

Marques Colston: Torn thumb ligament. Out 4-6 weeks. 'Nuff said. Guy to watch as a possible riser this situation (besides Jeremy Shockey and Bush, of course), is Robert Meacham. Fantasy Nation was put off by his inactive status last week, but it was only because he doesn't play special teams. Now? Patten slides into the #1 role and Meacham likely starts getting some snaps alongside Devery Henderson and Lance Moore. And Meacham is the most talented. This bears watching….

Joseph Addai: Steven Jackson owners might disagree, but Addai has "biggest bust of 2008" potential…and that's not even one-week panic talking. The loss of Jeff Saturday, the quasi-rustiness of Peyton Manning, the injury to Dallas Clark, and Addai's concussion, and Indy's tough schedule all add up to some potential rough times ahead. Can't trade him yet, but monitor closely. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

[Hache Man]

Thumb Down for Colston
My first "live chat" of the season went very well last week—aside from the people complaining that Seinfeld references and Gregg Rosenthal jokes out-numbered "sit or start?" questions—so we're making it a regular Thursday afternoon thing. Today's chat begins at 3:00 p.m. EST, so start thinking about potential excuses for skipping work/class/life and join me by clicking here.

While the Rotoworld bosses ponder my offer to quit writing columns and focus exclusively on a live-chatting reality show that runs 24/7—think Big Brother, but without all the excitement—here are some notes from around football …

* New Orleans' passing attack looked fantastic in Week 1, with Jeremy Shockey joining Marques Colston and Reggie Bush to give Drew Brees a trio of explosive targets. Unfortunately, Colston suffered a torn thumb ligament in the opener and underwent surgery Wednesday, knocking him out for 4-6 weeks. He caught more passes through his first two seasons than anyone in NFL history, so it's a huge loss.

However, considering that the Saints threw 10 percent more than any other team last year there's zero doubt that coach Sean Payton will continue to have Brees chuck it early and often. He should be able to maintain upper-level QB1 status with or without Colston, although his stats will certainly take a hit. While Devery Henderson will be a popular pickup, David Patten figures to gain more targets.

* Coach Tony Sparano said earlier this week that the carry split between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams would remain "kind of even" going forward, but Brown worked ahead of Williams at practice Wednesday after taking a relative backseat in Week 1. For now they'll likely continue splitting work, but the situation is worth watching given that Brown's ceiling as a featured back is higher. www.miamidolphins.ws

* Third-round rookie Steve Slaton basically split snaps in his debut, but will get a full workload in Week 2 now that Ahman Green has been ruled out with an ankle injury. Slaton is a good bet for 20-plus touches after 13 carries and three grabs in Week 1, but a very tough matchup against the Ravens will make it difficult to post decent numbers. He's a nice FLEX option, but that's about it for now.

* Despite playing through a sprained ankle in the season opener, Jeff Garcia has been ruled out for Week 2 and the Bucs will turn to Brian Griese in his place as the local media starts fanning the quarterback controversy flame. While it seems unlikely that Garcia has lost his job, it wouldn't be shocking if he was on thin ice and Griese has an excellent matchup against the Falcons. He's a low-end QB2. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

* Dallas Clark left Sunday night's game in the second quarter with a knee injury and the Indianapolis Star reports that he's unlikely to play in Week 2 after sitting out Wednesday's practice. While officially a tight end, Clark often lines up at slot receiver for the Colts and is a huge factor near the goal line, so his absence is a big one. If Clark sits versus Minnesota, Anthony Gonzalez will get a nice boost.

* Damon Huard is back to starting for the Chiefs after Brodie Croyle's separated shoulder, but coach Herm Edwards said Wednesday that Tyler Thigpen will also see action. It's unclear if he's planning a true two-QB system, but Huard's job is obviously far from secure and the Chiefs appear see lots of potential in Thigpen after claiming the seventh-round pick off waivers from the Vikings last season.

Two-Minute Drill: Offensive coordinator Al Saunders explained Torry Holt's paltry two Week 1 targets by saying that the Eagles "doubled him quite a bit" … Devin Hester played just 21 of 61 offensive snaps in Week 1, which is a workload that'll make it very tough for him to be a fantasy asset … Asked why second-round rookie Limas Sweed was a healthy scratch in Week 1, coach Mike Tomlin said: "We're trying to win games, Dallas Baker is better right now" … Chris Baker and the Jets agreed Wednesday to a three-year extension that includes $12.2 million in new money … Cut loose by the Seahawks, preseason standout Justin Forsett was claimed off waivers by the Colts … David Anderson officially moved past Andre' Davis on the depth chart and is the Texans' slot receiver … According to coach Ken Whisenhunt, rookie cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie seeing action at wide receiver is "a definite possibility" … Further weakening an already suspect run defense, the Colts quickly released starting defensive tackle Ed Johnson following his Wednesday morning arrest for marijuana possession.

Red Zone: LaDainian Tomlinson missed practice Wednesday, saying that resting his injured toe was "probably the smartest thing to do" … Coach Mike Holmgren said Wednesday that Bobby Engram (shoulder) and Deion Branch (knee) aren't expected back before Week 5, making life difficult for Matt Hasselbeck … Willis McGahee (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday, but the Ravens have hinted that he's likely to suit up in Week 2 … Despite leaving Monday night's game with a neck stinger, Darren McFadden is not on the Week 2 injury report … According to coach Mike Tomlin, there's "little doubt" Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, knee) will play this week … Javon Walker (hamstring) looks ready to make his Raiders debut after putting in a full practice Wednesday … Chris Cooley (quadriceps) sat out practice Wednesday for the first time in his five-season career, but indicated that he's in no danger of missing Week 2 … Ben Watson (knee) looks unlikely to play this week after sitting out Wednesday's practice …Jerry Porter (hamstring) practiced fully Wednesday and could make his Jaguars debut this week … Alex Smith's season and 49ers career are both likely over due to a fractured shoulder.

[Hache Man]

Week 2 Rankings

As FootballOutsiders points out, it's National Jump to Conclusions week. The Bengals offense is dead, Michael Turner is the messiah, and Marc Bulger has forever morphed into the late career Drew Bledsoe.

The question every owner must answer: How much truly changes in a week?

I was in a draft that took place Wednesday night that opened my eyes to how quickly perceptions can change. (Our annual NBC league was delayed as people got back from the Olympics, so we were forced to start late). Within today's ranking notes, I'll mention some of the draft results to highlight what players legitimately saw their value change in Week 1 (Selvin Young, Philip Rivers) and which performances were a mirage. Fantasy owners love action and transactions, but don't forget that staying the course is often our best move.

For projections of all the rankings below, head to Season Pass. I'll also be chatting there with subscribers on Friday afternoon.

Week 2 Quarterbacks

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Tony Romo	vs. PHI	-
2	Donovan McNabb	at DAL	-
3	Peyton Manning	at MIN	Give him a mulligan
4	Ben Roethlisberger	at CLE	Keep an eye on practice
5	Drew Brees	at WAS	-
6	Jay Cutler	vs. SD	-
7	Kurt Warner	vs. MIA	-
8	Eli Manning	at STL	-
9	Aaron Rodgers	at DET	-
10	Carson Palmer	vs. TEN	It has to get better … right?
11	Derek Anderson	vs. PIT	-
12	David Garrard	vs. BUF	-
13	Brett Favre	vs. NE	-
14	Philip Rivers	at DEN	-
15	Matt Schaub	vs. BAL	-
16	Brian Griese	vs. ATL	Decent emergency fill-in
17	Matt Hasselbeck	vs. SF	-
18	Jon Kitna	vs. GB	-
19	Jake Delhomme	vs. CHI	-
20	Matt Cassel	at NYJ	-
21	Marc Bulger	vs. NYG	How the mighty have fallen
22	Jason Campbell	vs. NO	-
23	J.T. O'Sullivan	at SEA	-
24	Tarvaris Jackson	vs. IND
25	Chad Pennington	at ARZ	-
26	Trent Edwards	at JAC	-
27	Kerry Collins	at CIN	-
28	Damon Huard	vs. OAK	-
29	Kyle Orton	at CAR	-
30	JaMarcus Russell	at KC	-
31	Matt Ryan	at TB	-
32	Joe Flacco	at HOU	-

QB Notes: Let's start with Bulger, who quarterbacked an incomparably terrible Rams offense Sunday. The play that summed up the effort for me on tape, other than the six false starts, was on a first half play in which the Rams max protected Bulger. Three Eagles landed on top of him anyway. With Torry Holt double teamed, the Rams wideouts just didn't create any separation. In the draft last night, Bulger went 171st! This was after Trent Edwards and Matt Ryan. After all the good times Bulger has given fantasy owners, I felt guilty, like I should call him to apologize. Bulger is not that bad and he should have gone way before the young guys. You can't play him this week against a strong Giants defensive line, but he's still a top-20 quarterback. … I was confident Donovan McNabb was a top-seven quarterback all along, but it was nice to see his young receivers perform so well. The second year after ACL surgery is a beautiful thing. … Ben Roethlisberger should play this week and he's got a great matchup. With Sean Jones out for Cleveland, the Browns are going to struggle preventing big plays.

Jay Cutler went with the 47th pick in our draft, a leap that was understandable. With Tom Brady out for the season, my top two tiers of quarterbacks are down to six and there is a huge drop-off after Cutler. Some of the QB options after the drop (Vince Young, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard) have legitimate concerns, making this top six more valuable. … Garrard fell to the 114th pick, which was too far. All the offensive line injuries will hurt the Jaguars, but they are strong enough to stay solid. I expect all the injuries to effect the running game more.

One player whose season-long value did change in Week 1 was Philip Rivers. I didn't expect him to look so strong coming off ACL surgery. It wasn't just his numbers, but his amazing movement and confidence in the pocket. The pass rush didn't bother him. In fact, he avoided many hits and threw on the run. He still must prove he can be consistent (a problem in the past), but I'm far less concerned about his post-surgery accuracy. He was far more comfortable than Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, or Donovan McNabb after their surgery.

Matt Hasselbeck's value is legitimately lower than it was a week ago. Until the team has Bobby Engram and Deion Branch back, he'll do well to be a solid QB2. He's a matchup play.
Some players I wouldn't jump to conclusions on:

Carson Palmer: The Ravens will make a lot of quarterbacks look terrible Unfortunately, so will the Titans.

Jake Delhomme: It was very surprising to see the Panthers go so pass-wacky. But Delhomme was still erratic for much of the game.

Derek Anderson: The concern here is that the Browns defense will keep losing games, and Brady Quinn chants will start. But D.A. will bounce back because of the weapons around him.

Matt Schaub: Like Carson Palmer, he faces a brutal early start. But he's still a long-term QB1/2. 25-of-33 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions are the stats you want when a quarterback struggles.

Week 2 Running Backs

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	at DEN	Fully expected to start
2	Adrian Peterson	vs. IND	-
3	Brian Westbrook	at DAL	-
4	Frank Gore	at SEA	-
5	Steven Jackson	vs. NYG	-
6	Marshawn Lynch	at JAC	-
7	Marion Barber	vs. PHI	Probable(ribs)
8	Brandon Jacobs	at STL	-
9	Ryan Grant	at DET	Lions incompetence > hamstring injury
10	Joseph Addai	at MIN	-
11	Clinton Portis	vs. NO	-
12	Willie Parker	at CLE	-
13	Larry Johnson	vs. OAK	-
14	Reggie Bush	at WAS	-
15	Michael Turner	at TB	-
16	Matt Forte	at CAR	-
17	Thomas Jones	vs. NE	-
18	Jamal Lewis	vs. PIT	-
19	Earnest Graham	vs. ATL	-
20	Chris Johnson	at CIN	-
21	Maurice Jones-Drew	vs. BUF	-
22	Selvin Young	vs. SD	Don't give up … yet
23	Laurence Maroney	at NYJ	-
24	DeAngelo Williams	vs. CHI	-
25	Edgerrin James	vs. MIA	-
26	Darren McFadden	at KC	-
27	Willis McGahee	at HOU	Role uncertain
28	LenDale White	at CIN	-
29	Chris Perry	vs. TEN	-
30	Justin Fargas	at KC	-
31	Ronnie Brown	at ARZ	-
32	Steve Slaton	vs. BAL	Expected to start
33	Jonathan Stewart	vs. CHI	-
34	Julius Jones	vs. SF	-
35	Ricky Williams	at ARZ	Coming off bench?
36	Kevin Smith	vs. GB	-
37	Fred Taylor	vs. BUF	-
38	Ray Rice	at HOU	-
39	Pierre Thomas	at WAS	-
40	Felix Jones	vs. PHI	-
41	Jerious Norwood	at TB	-
42	Andre Hall	vs. SD	-
43	Sammy Morris	at NYJ	-
44	Chester Taylor	vs. IND	-
45	Warrick Dunn	vs. ATL	-
46	Brandon Jackson	at DET	Keep eye on concussion
47	Rashard Mendenhall	at CLE	-
48	Chris Taylor	vs. BAL	Should backup Slaton
49	Tim Hightower	vs. MIA	-
50	Kenny Watson	vs. TEN
51	Fred Jackson	at JAC	-
52	Kevin Jones	at CAR	-
53	Jamaal Charles	vs. OAK	-
54	Rudi Johnson	vs. GB	-
55	Leon Washington	vs. NE	-
56	Ahmad Bradshaw	at STL
57	Ladell Betts	vs. NO	-

RB Notes: Willie Parker was undervalued by fantasy writers and owners alike because we expected Rashard Mendenhall to develop faster. 7 of Mendenhall's ten carries came in the final 18 minutes against Houston when the game was out of reach. The question remains how undervalued was Parker? He certainly wasn't worth the tenth overall pick in our draft last night. I'd argue he still wasn't worth a top-30 pick. Willie Parker will not score 48 touchdowns this year and his lack of receiving skills remains a problem. He could be a good sell high candidate after this week. But Parker's early success around the stripe will get him more chances, making him a legitimate mid-level RB2 who has emerged from the third and fourth round running back morass of a few weeks back.

Michael Turner's huge week looks like a bigger mirage. The Lions will make a lot of running backs look like Hall of Famers, and defenses will quickly catch up to Matt Ryan. After one week, we still consider Turner a solid RB2. If you can get better value than that for him, go right ahead and deal. (Turner went 17th overall and 15th at running back in our draft. More receivers should have gone before him.) www.atlantafalcons.ws

Sammy Morris is another player who rocketed up our office draft after a strong Week 1, going 64th overall, ahead of backs like Jonathan Stewart, Steve Slaton, Chris Perry, LenDale White, and DeAngelo Williams. This was too far a leap. Morris is a nice pickup, but the Patriots backfield will be split three-ways and Morris' touches will remain inconsistent. He's a flex option that will mostly be useful when bye weeks hit. I expected Laurence Maroney to take a bigger hit in our draft, but he still went early. I've been carping all off-season that the Patriots will try to keep Maroney fresh with relatively little work early in the season. That remains likely, despite Tom Brady's injury. I've heard the argument that Brady's injury helps Maroney because the team will run more, but I don't buy it. It will be harder to run and the team will score less. … Jamal Lewis eased some concerns for Browns fans and fantasy owners against the Cowboys despite average numbers. He ran hard and looked healthy.

Selvin Young's value legitimately changed in Week 1. I'm not ready to give up on him as a RB2 option, but he's not a plug-and-play guy after watching Michael Pittman and Andre Hall have such big roles in Week 1. The mid-season return of Ryan Torain looms too. Just don't assume the Denver rotation will remain consistent. Young will get the chance to start again, and he could very well get 20 carries and enjoys a big day against the Chargers. The leader of an effective Denver rotation has plenty of value. Perhaps just not as much as we thought a week ago.

Don't jump to conclusions on:

Jonathan Stewart: He fell to the 68th pick in our draft, which is a nice value. While he didn't get the goal-line carries in Week 1, he looked great when he was on the field. He's still a great long-term RB3. www.carlolinapanthers.ws

Matt Forte: I love the kid and he'll be a great RB2. But he still plays for the Bears and should not have gone with the 18th overall pick in our draft last night.

Joseph Addai: Still a safe bet for 12 scores. Of course. He's only ranked so low this week because of the matchup and concern the Colts will play it safe with him after a head injury. www.indianapoliscolts.ws

Chris Perry: He was a matchup-type play going into the season, and he remains so. He just happens to have started with two brutal matchups.

Reggie Bush: Seeing Bush truly step up would make me very happy. But he's had excellent games before. Let's see it for a month.

Their draft value should change after Week 1:

I never put Ricky Williams higher than Ronnie Brown, but his value is limited if he's already being passed on the depth chart. www.miamidolphins.ws

The Titans aren't waiting to get Chris Johnson more touches than LenDale White. If the split is 60-40 in favor of Johnson already, he's a RB2.

Week 2 Wide Receivers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Terrell Owens	vs. PHI	-
2	Larry Fitzgerald	vs. MIA	-
3	Randy Moss	at NYJ	Keep eye on back injury
4	Andre Johnson	vs. BAL	-
5	Reggie Wayne	at MIN	-
6	Brandon Marshall	vs. SD	-
7	Braylon Edwards	vs. PIT	-
8	Plaxico Burress	at STL	-
9	Santonio Holmes	at CLE	-
10	Anquan Boldin	vs. MIA	-
11	Jerricho Cotchery	vs. NE	-
12	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	vs. TEN
13	Chad Ocho Cinco	vs. TEN	-
14	Marvin Harrison	at MIN	-
15	Torry Holt	vs. NYG	-
16	Greg Jennings	at DET	-
17	Calvin Johnson	vs. GB	-
18	Roy Williams	vs. GB	-
19	Lee Evans	at JAC	-
20	Wes Welker	at NYJ	-
21	Joey Galloway	vs. ATL
22	Dwayne Bowe	vs. OAK	-
23	Donald Driver	at DET	-
24	Hines Ward	at CLE	-
25	Patrick Crayton	vs. PHI	-
26	Santana Moss	vs. NO	-
27	Laveranues Coles	vs. NE
28	Roddy White	at TB	-
29	Chris Chambers	at DEN	-
30	Antonio Bryant	vs. ATL
31	Anthony Gonzalez	at MIN	-
32	D.J. Hackett	vs. CHI
33	Eddie Royal	vs. SD	Can he repeat?
34	DeSean Jackson	at DAL	-
35	Vincent Jackson	at DEN	-
36	Ronald Curry	at KC	-
37	Bernard Berrian	vs. IND	-
38	Sidney Rice	vs. IND	-
39	Donte' Stallworth	vs. PIT	Questionable(quadriceps)
40	Jerry Porter	vs. BUF	Questionable(hamstring)
41	Amani Toomer	at STL	-
42	Courtney Taylor	vs. SF	-
43	Bryant Johnson	at SEA	-
44	Matt Jones	vs. BUF	-
45	Kevin Walter	vs. BAL	-
46	Derrick Mason	at HOU	-
47	David Patten	at WAS	-
48	Mark Clayton	at HOU	-
49	Isaac Bruce	at SEA	-
50	Hank Baskett	at DAL	-
51	Antwaan Randle El	vs. NO
52	Muhsin Muhammad	vs. CHI	-
53	Ted Ginn Jr.	at ARZ	-
54	Javon Walker	at KC	Expected to play … for now
55	Arnaz Battle	at SEA	-
56	Logan Payne	vs. SF	-

WR Notes: Tom Brady's injury had a huge effect on the top of our draft at receiver. Terrell Owens was the first receiver drafted, and Randy Moss went second at No. 23. That sounds about right. Moss would still be in my top-five wideouts, possibly top-three, but the gap between him and the others has been erased. … Andre Johnson quietly got off to a good start in Week 1 and could fill the Moss gap at the top of the year-end receiver rankings. … Torry Holt went fortieth in our draft, which includes a lot of Eagles fans that watched Holt get only one target in Week 1. On one hand, I know not to overreact to the opener. The Rams will pass, and someone has to get the numbers. On the other hand, I choose Holt as one of the most likely veteran players to fall off a cliff in a segment for NBCSports.com. He must prove he has the speed to create separation, especially if he's going to be double-teamed often. He'll get his numbers eventually and be better in fantasy than reality, but they need to start forcing the ball to him.

DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal were two of the toughest players to rank this week. The instinct is to call their games flukes … but 100-yard games in rookie debuts just don't happen. Only one other player in the last 13 seasons have topped 100 yards: Anquan Boldin. (He topped 200). The top eleven debuts for wideouts over that span is littered with stars: Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, Plaxico Burress, Andre Johnson, and Deion Branch. The only name that sticks out is Tulane alum JaJuan Dawson, who had a career-defining injury the following week. Jackson and Royal are here to stay as fantasy factors. They play in excellent systems and with Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks. Royal runs routes like a veteran. Jackson caught some deep passes in traffic. Both are undersized, and thus not ready to be true number one guys. But they can be quality WR3 options who help teams all season. Royal went ninetieth and Jackson at No. 105, by an Eagles fan. But that's a spot after 30 wideouts are off the board, and the placement passed my smell test.

Ted Ginn needs to earn the right to be put in any fantasy roster. Ranking him at all here is kind. … Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne have a great opportunity over the next three weeks, but they must prove they can capitalize before inserting them into lineups. At least Taylor got nine targets. … Two players getting a shocking amount of targets were Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. Moose struggled badly despite getting so much attention. Jake Delhomme forced balls to him. Hackett looked like the best wideout on the team, but that isn't saying much. He's a reasonable WR3 play this week. … Anthony Gonzalez is a much better play this week if Dallas Clark is out.

Don't jump to conclusions on:

Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Braylon Edwards: Top tier wideouts in their prime may have off games, but they rarely have off seasons.

Wes Welker: Matt Cassel won't help, of course, but that doesn't mean he goes back to his Dolphins numbers.

Laveranues Coles: Something tells me the Jets will force the ball to him this week to keep him happy.

Matt Jones: It remains to be seen what his role will be when Jerry Porter is at full strength.

Week 2 Tight Ends

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Jason Witten	vs. PHI	-
2	Kellen Winslow	vs. PIT	-
3	Antonio Gates	at DEN
4	Tony Gonzalez	vs. OAK	-
5	Jeremy Shockey	at WAS	-
6	Chris Cooley	vs. NO	-
7	Vernon Davis	at SEA	-
8	Dallas Clark	at MIN	Questionable(knee)
9	Owen Daniels	vs. BAL	-
10	Todd Heap	at HOU
11	Tony Scheffler	vs. SD	-
12	Heath Miller	at CLE	-
13	L.J. Smith	at DAL	-
14	Zach Miller	at KC	-
15	Greg Olsen	at CAR	-
16	Randy McMichael	vs. NYG	-
17	Dante Rosario	vs. CHI	Keep eye on foot injury
18	Alge Crumpler	at CIN	-
19	Ben Utecht	vs. TEN	-
20	Marcedes Lewis	vs. BUF	-
21	Anthony Fasano	at ARZ	-
22	Donald Lee	at DET	-
23	John Carlson	vs. SF	-
24	Desmond Clark	at CAR	Probable(knee)
25	Bo Scaife	at CIN	-
26	Kevin Boss	at STL	-

TE Notes: Tight ends fell in our draft, with my team kicking off a run by taking Jason Witten with the No. 52 pick. Two rounds later, Anthony Fasano was off the board. Now that's a one week jump! That insane pick aside, Fasano would be worth drafting if in any league today – as a TE2. L.J. Smith also moved up after getting a lot of targets this week. The "problem" at tight end is that it's too easy to fill your starting spot. Quality options like Fasano and Alge Crumpler don't sniff the top-15. The difference between the sixth-ranked tight end this week (Cooley) and the No. 21 option (Fasano) is relatively small. Dante Rosario and Fasano both lined up in the slot quite a bit. That surprised me with Fasano, who isn't exactly fleet of foot, but he knows how to find soft spots in coverage. … While plenty of tight ends have seen short-term boosts, I don't see any major tight end starter who has seen his value decline. Todd Heap couldn't stay healthy for a game, but he's already practicing again. Tony Scheffler came off the bench, but he uncorked a 77-yard play and had a target in the end zone. Dallas Clark is hurt again, but I never had him in the top ten to begin with. Injuries are part of his package. The position is stronger at the top and deeper than ever before.
Week 2 Kickers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Nick Folk	vs. PHI	-
2	Mason Crosby	at DET	-
3	Stephen Gostkowski	at NYJ	-
4	Josh Scobee	vs. BUF	-
5	Nate Kaeding	at DEN	-
6	Rob Bironas	at CIN	-
7	Ryan Longwell	vs. IND	-
8	Shayne Graham	vs. TEN	-
9	Josh Brown	vs. NYG	-
10	Adam Vinatieri	at MIN	-
11	Neil Rackers	vs. MIA	-
12	Robbie Gould	at CAR	-
13	Jeff Reed	at CLE	-
14	David Akers	at DAL	-
15	Matt Bryant	vs. ATL	-
16	Phil Dawson	vs. PIT	Probable(-)
17	Matt Stover	at HOU	-
18	Martin Gramatica	at WAS	-
19	John Kasay	vs. CHI	-
20	Olindo Mare	vs. SF	-
21	Joe Nedney	at SEA	-
22	Kris Brown	vs. BAL	-
23	Jason Hanson	vs. GB	-
24	Jason Elam	at TB	-
25	Rian Lindell	at JAC	-
26	Matt Prater	vs. SD	-
27	Sebastian Janikowski	at KC	-
28	Jay Feely	vs. NE	-
29	John Carney	at STL	-
30	Shaun Suisham	vs. NO	-
31	Dan Carpenter	at ARZ	-
32	Nick Novak	vs. OAK	-

Week 2 Team Defense

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Bears Def/Spec Team	at CAR	-
2	Giants Def/Spec Team	at STL	-
3	Patriots Def/Spec Team	at NYJ	-
4	Buccaneers Def/Spec Team	vs. ATL	-
5	Colts Def/Spec Team	at MIN	-
6	Seahawks Def/Spec Team	vs. SF	-
7	Packers Def/Spec Team	at DET	-
8	Titans Def/Spec Team	at CIN	-
9	Chargers Def/Spec Team	at DEN	-
10	Ravens Def/Spec Team	at HOU	-
11	Vikings Def/Spec Team	vs. IND	-
12	Texans Def/Spec Team	vs. BAL	-
13	Cowboys Def/Spec Team	vs. PHI	-
14	Steelers Def/Spec Team	at CLE	-
15	Bills Def/Spec Team	at JAC	-
16	Chiefs Def/Spec Team	vs. OAK	-
17	Bengals Def/Spec Team	vs. TEN	-
18	Cardinals Def/Spec Team	vs. MIA	-
19	Eagles Def/Spec Team	at DAL	-
20	Jaguars Def/Spec Team	vs. BUF	-
21	Panthers Def/Spec Team	vs. CHI	-
22	Broncos Def/Spec Team	vs. SD	-
23	Raiders Def/Spec Team	at KC	-
24	Jets Def/Spec Team	vs. NE	-
25	Saints Def/Spec Team	at WAS	-
26	Fortyniners Def/Spec Team	at SEA	-
27	Redskins Def/Spec Team	vs. NO	-
28	Dolphins Def/Spec Team	at ARZ	-
29	Browns Def/Spec Team	vs. PIT	-
30	Falcons Def/Spec Team	at TB	-
31	Lions Def/Spec Team	vs. GB	-
32	Rams Def/Spec Team	vs. NYG	-

[Hache Man]

Toe Tripping Tomlinson
My weekly Thursday live chat drew 5,195 questions from 2,067 people yesterday afternoon and even setting aside the 1,195 or so times someone submitted "why aren't you answering my question?!" as a question, tackling all the other 4,000 or so queries is beyond my ability as a human. For people who hung out in the chat and were disappointed not to have their questions answered, you're in luck!

Gregg Rosenthal is hosting a much more exclusive, intimate live chat for Season Pass subscribers this afternoon. He'll answer a much higher percentage of the questions submitted and probably won't waste as much time making jokes about Gregg Rosenthal, so check it out. Also, for those of you who had a "sit or start?" question ignored by me, as usual Goal Line Stand has all the answers.

While we learn that Tony Romo is far nicer than he probably has any right to be at this point, here are some notes from around football …

* Vince Young spoke to the media Thursday and responded to reports about his mental state, saying that he was "never depressed" and remains committed to football. "Football, this is my life," Young said. "It's a blessing to play the game I love, and I'm having a good time playing it. Young said that he "didn't know how to handle" being booed for the first time, but wants everyone "to know I'm fine."

Even setting aside Young's potentially serious off-field issues for a moment, he's going to miss at least a few weeks with a sprained knee. Kerry Collins will start in his place and there's plenty of speculation that Young won't be guaranteed the job once healthy again, although that seems far-fetched assuming that his knee and mind are both right. Collins figures to be a low-end QB2 in the meantime.

* With Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, and Nate Burleson all sidelined by injuries, fantasy nation has been trying to figure out which receivers will step up for the Seahawks. Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne will likely see the most action this week, with backup quarterback Seneca Wallace also in the mix, but rookie tight end John Carlson may benefit most from the banged-up receiving corps.

A second-round pick out of Notre Dame, Carlson quickly moved past Will Heller and Jeb Putzier on the depth chart and hauled in every ball thrown his way in the season opener, totaling 52 yards on four grabs. A solid all-around tight end with reliable hands, Carlson should get at least 6-8 targets this week and is capable of emerging as a low-end TE1 option until Engram and Branch get healthy.

* Coach Mike McCarthy indicated Thursday that Ryan Grant will be a game-time decision this week because of a hamstring injury, but Grant said: "I don't see it as a question." Normally it'd be smart to plan for life without a banged-up runner, but Grant's matchup against the Lions is so juicy that he could easily put up RB1 numbers on just 15 touches. Double-check his status before setting your lineup.

* LaDainian Tomlinson tried to brush off concerns about his toe injury earlier this week, but it's definitely a major issue now that he's missed two straight practices. Adam Schefter of NFL Network reports that Tomlinson is legitimately in danger of missing Week 2, which makes grabbing backup Darren Sproles an even better idea than usual for his owners. Check back on his injury report status Friday. www.sandiegochargers.ws

Two-Minute Drill: After hauling in just one Brett Favre www.newyorkjets.ws pass in the season opener, Laveranues Coles said Thursday that he doesn't yet "have a feel for him" going into a Week 2 matchup versus the Patriots … Offensive coordinator Al Saunders blamed himself Thursday for abandoning the running game when the Rams fell behind in Week 1, but with another potential blowout on the horizon against the Giants getting Steven Jackson consistent carries may be tough again … Coach Tony Sparano said Thursday that Ted Ginn Jr. remains a starter, but added that the Dolphins "are still trying to find the right pieces to the puzzle" and "need to see some consistency come out of some of these guys" … Meanwhile, Derek Hagan has been Miami's top receiver in practice this week … With Ahman Green out, Chris Taylor will back up Steve Slaton in Week 2 while Darius Walker goes from practice squad to No. 3 running back … According to coach Scott Linehan, newly signed Eddie Kennison will play "a role somewhat similar to what a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver would have" … Sunday afternoon's Ravens-Texans game has been moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike.

Red Zone: Willis McGahee (knee) was limited in practice Thursday, once again making him at best a very risky RB2 option while giving backup Ray Rice decent RB3/FLEX value … Marion Barber's ribs are no longer a big concern after he put in a full practice Thursday … Donte' Stallworth (quadriceps) missed his second straight practice Thursday after injuring himself in pregame warm-ups last week and looks unlikely to play against the Steelers … Reggie Brown (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday and coach Andy Reid called him "questionable" for Monday night … Dallas Clark (knee) sat out practice again Thursday, all but ruling him out for Week 2 … Deuce McAllister (knee) practiced fully Thursday, but remains stuck behind Pierre Thomas on the depth chart … A concussion looks likely to keep Albert Haynesworth from playing this week, which is a huge blow to the Titans' defense and a nice boost for Bengals skill players … James Jones (knee) practiced fully Thursday and figures to resume his role as Green Bay's third receiver … Jerry Porter's injured hamstring was healthy enough for him to put in a full practice Thursday, setting him for at least a part-time role.

[Hache Man]

Week 2 Rankings Update

These rankings were updated Friday evening

As FootballOutsiders points out, it's National Jump to Conclusions week. The Bengals offense is dead, Michael Turner is the messiah, and Marc Bulger has forever morphed into the late career Drew Bledsoe.

The question every owner must answer: How much truly changes in a week?

I was in a draft that took place Wednesday night that opened my eyes to how quickly perceptions can change. (Our annual NBC league was delayed as people got back from the Olympics, so we were forced to start late). Within today's ranking notes, I'll mention some of the draft results to highlight what players legitimately saw their value change in Week 1 (Selvin Young, Philip Rivers) and which performances were a mirage. Fantasy owners love action and transactions, but don't forget that staying the course is often our best move.

For projections of all the rankings below, head to Season Pass. I'll also be chatting there with subscribers on Friday afternoon.

Week 2 Quarterbacks

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Tony Romo	vs. PHI	-
2	Donovan McNabb	at DAL	-
3	Peyton Manning	at MIN	-
4	Ben Roethlisberger	at CLE	Will start
5	Jay Cutler	vs. SD
6	Drew Brees	at WAS	-
7	Kurt Warner	vs. MIA	-
8	Eli Manning	at STL	-
9	Aaron Rodgers	at DET	-
10	Carson Palmer	vs. TEN	Shaky option?
11	Derek Anderson	vs. PIT	-
12	David Garrard	vs. BUF	-
13	Brett Favre	vs. NE	-
14	Philip Rivers	at DEN	Regaining mobility
15	Matt Schaub	vs. BAL	-
16	Brian Griese	vs. ATL	-
17	Matt Hasselbeck	vs. SF	-
18	Jon Kitna	vs. GB	-
19	Jake Delhomme	vs. CHI	-
20	Matt Cassel	at NYJ	-
21	Marc Bulger	vs. NYG	-
22	Jason Campbell	vs. NO	-
23	J.T. O'Sullivan	at SEA	-
24	Tarvaris Jackson	vs. IND	Probable(knee)
25	Chad Pennington	at ARZ	-
26	Trent Edwards	at JAC	-
27	Kerry Collins	at CIN	-
28	Damon Huard	vs. OAK	-
29	Kyle Orton	at CAR	-
30	JaMarcus Russell	at KC	-
31	Matt Ryan	at TB	-
32	Joe Flacco	at HOU	-

QB Notes: Let's start with Bulger, who quarterbacked an incomparably terrible Rams offense Sunday. The play that summed up the effort for me on tape, other than the six false starts, was on a first half play in which the Rams max protected Bulger. Three Eagles landed on top of him anyway. With Torry Holt double teamed, the Rams wideouts just didn't create any separation. In the draft last night, Bulger went 171st! This was after Trent Edwards and Matt Ryan. After all the good times Bulger has given fantasy owners, I felt guilty, like I should call him to apologize. Bulger is not that bad and he should have gone way before the young guys. You can't play him this week against a strong Giants defensive line, but he's still a top-20 quarterback. … I was confident Donovan McNabb was a top-seven quarterback all along, but it was nice to see his young receivers perform so well. The second year after ACL surgery is a beautiful thing. … Ben Roethlisberger should play this week and he's got a great matchup. With Sean Jones out for Cleveland, the Browns are going to struggle preventing big plays.

Jay Cutler went with the 47th pick in our draft, a leap that was understandable. With Tom Brady out for the season, my top two tiers of quarterbacks are down to six and there is a huge drop-off after Cutler. Some of the QB options after the drop (Vince Young, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard) have legitimate concerns, making this top six more valuable. … Garrard fell to the 114th pick, which was too far. All the offensive line injuries will hurt the Jaguars, but they are strong enough to stay solid. I expect all the injuries to effect the running game more.

One player whose season-long value did change in Week 1 was Philip Rivers. I didn't expect him to look so strong coming off ACL surgery. It wasn't just his numbers, but his amazing movement and confidence in the pocket. The pass rush didn't bother him. In fact, he avoided many hits and threw on the run. He still must prove he can be consistent (a problem in the past), but I'm far less concerned about his post-surgery accuracy. He was far more comfortable than Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, or Donovan McNabb after their surgery.

Matt Hasselbeck's value is legitimately lower than it was a week ago. Until the team has Bobby Engram and Deion Branch back, he'll do well to be a solid QB2. He's a matchup play.
Some players I wouldn't jump to conclusions on:

Carson Palmer: The Ravens will make a lot of quarterbacks look terrible Unfortunately, so will the Titans.

Jake Delhomme: It was very surprising to see the Panthers go so pass-wacky. But Delhomme was still erratic for much of the game.

Derek Anderson: The concern here is that the Browns defense will keep losing games, and Brady Quinn chants will start. But D.A. will bounce back because of the weapons around him.

Matt Schaub: Like Carson Palmer, he faces a brutal early start. But he's still a long-term QB1/2. 25-of-33 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions are the stats you want when a quarterback struggles.

Week 2 Running Backs

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	at DEN	Expected to start
2	Adrian Peterson	vs. IND	-
3	Brian Westbrook	at DAL	-
4	Frank Gore	at SEA	-
5	Steven Jackson	vs. NYG	-
6	Marshawn Lynch	at JAC	-
7	Marion Barber	vs. PHI	Probable(ribs)
8	Brandon Jacobs	at STL	-
9	Joseph Addai	at MIN	-
10	Clinton Portis	vs. NO	-
11	Ryan Grant	at DET	Expected to start
12	Willie Parker	at CLE	-
13	Larry Johnson	vs. OAK	-
14	Reggie Bush	at WAS	-
15	Michael Turner	at TB	-
16	Matt Forte	at CAR	Probable(ankle)
17	Thomas Jones	vs. NE	-
18	Jamal Lewis	vs. PIT	-
19	Earnest Graham	vs. ATL	-
20	Chris Johnson	at CIN	-
21	Maurice Jones-Drew	vs. BUF	-
22	DeAngelo Williams	vs. CHI	-
23	Selvin Young	vs. SD	-
24	Laurence Maroney	at NYJ	-
25	Edgerrin James	vs. MIA	-
26	Darren McFadden	at KC	-
27	Willis McGahee	at HOU	Probable(knee)
28	LenDale White	at CIN	-
29	Chris Perry	vs. TEN	-
30	Justin Fargas	at KC	-
31	Ronnie Brown	at ARZ	-
32	Jonathan Stewart	vs. CHI	-
33	Julius Jones	vs. SF	-
34	Steve Slaton	vs. BAL	Ready on day one?
35	Ricky Williams	at ARZ	Already a backup?
36	Kevin Smith	vs. GB	-
37	Fred Taylor	vs. BUF	-
38	Pierre Thomas	at WAS	-
39	Felix Jones	vs. PHI	-
40	Jerious Norwood	at TB	-
41	Ray Rice	at HOU	-
42	Andre Hall	vs. SD	-
43	Sammy Morris	at NYJ	-
44	Chester Taylor	vs. IND	-
45	Warrick Dunn	vs. ATL	-
46	Brandon Jackson	at DET	Probable(concussion)
47	Rashard Mendenhall	at CLE	-
48	Chris Taylor	vs. BAL	Could split with Slaton
49	LeRon McClain	at HOU	May pass Rice?
50	Tim Hightower	vs. MIA	-
51	Darren Sproles	at DEN	Added to list
52	Kenny Watson	vs. TEN	-
53	Fred Jackson	at JAC	-
54	Kevin Jones	at CAR	-
55	Jamaal Charles	vs. OAK	-
56	Rudi Johnson	vs. GB	-
57	Leon Washington	vs. NE	-
58	Ahmad Bradshaw	at STL	-
59	Ladell Betts	vs. NO	-

RB Notes: Willie Parker was undervalued by fantasy writers and owners alike because we expected Rashard Mendenhall to develop faster. 7 of Mendenhall's ten carries came in the final 18 minutes against Houston when the game was out of reach. The question remains how undervalued was Parker? He certainly wasn't worth the tenth overall pick in our draft last night. I'd argue he still wasn't worth a top-30 pick. Willie Parker will not score 48 touchdowns this year and his lack of receiving skills remains a problem. He could be a good sell high candidate after this week. But Parker's early success around the stripe will get him more chances, making him a legitimate mid-level RB2 who has emerged from the third and fourth round running back morass of a few weeks back.

Michael Turner's huge week looks like a bigger mirage. The Lions will make a lot of running backs look like Hall of Famers, and defenses will quickly catch up to Matt Ryan. After one week, we still consider Turner a solid RB2. If you can get better value than that for him, go right ahead and deal. (Turner went 17th overall and 15th at running back in our draft. More receivers should have gone before him.)

Sammy Morris is another player who rocketed up our office draft after a strong Week 1, going 64th overall, ahead of backs like Jonathan Stewart, Steve Slaton, Chris Perry, LenDale White, and DeAngelo Williams. This was too far a leap. Morris is a nice pickup, but the Patriots backfield will be split three-ways and Morris' touches will remain inconsistent. He's a flex option that will mostly be useful when bye weeks hit. I expected Laurence Maroney to take a bigger hit in our draft, but he still went early. I've been carping all off-season that the Patriots will try to keep Maroney fresh with relatively little work early in the season. That remains likely, despite Tom Brady's injury. I've heard the argument that Brady's injury helps Maroney because the team will run more, but I don't buy it. It will be harder to run and the team will score less. … Jamal Lewis eased some concerns for Browns fans and fantasy owners against the Cowboys despite average numbers. He ran hard and looked healthy.

Selvin Young's value legitimately changed in Week 1. I'm not ready to give up on him as a RB2 option, but he's not a plug-and-play guy after watching Michael Pittman and Andre Hall have such big roles in Week 1. The mid-season return of Ryan Torain looms too. Just don't assume the Denver rotation will remain consistent. Young will get the chance to start again, and he could very well get 20 carries and enjoys a big day against the Chargers. The leader of an effective Denver rotation has plenty of value. Perhaps just not as much as we thought a week ago.

Don't jump to conclusions on:

Jonathan Stewart: He fell to the 68th pick in our draft, which is a nice value. While he didn't get the goal-line carries in Week 1, he looked great when he was on the field. He's still a great long-term RB3.

Matt Forte: I love the kid and he'll be a great RB2. But he still plays for the Bears and should not have gone with the 18th overall pick in our draft last night.

Joseph Addai: Still a safe bet for 12 scores. Of course. He's only ranked so low this week because of the matchup and concern the Colts will play it safe with him after a head injury.

Chris Perry: He was a matchup-type play going into the season, and he remains so. He just happens to have started with two brutal matchups.

Reggie Bush: Seeing Bush truly step up would make me very happy. But he's had excellent games before. Let's see it for a month.

Their draft value should change after Week 1:

I never put Ricky Williams higher than Ronnie Brown, but his value is limited if he's already being passed on the depth chart.

The Titans aren't waiting to get Chris Johnson more touches than LenDale White. If the split is 60-40 in favor of Johnson already, he's a RB2.

Week 2 Wide Receivers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Terrell Owens	vs. PHI	-
2	Larry Fitzgerald	vs. MIA	-
3	Randy Moss	at NYJ	Will start
4	Andre Johnson	vs. BAL	-
5	Reggie Wayne	at MIN	-
6	Brandon Marshall	vs. SD	-
7	Braylon Edwards	vs. PIT	-
8	Plaxico Burress	at STL	-
9	Santonio Holmes	at CLE	-
10	Anquan Boldin	vs. MIA	-
11	Jerricho Cotchery	vs. NE	-
12	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	vs. TEN	-
13	Chad Ocho Cinco	vs. TEN	-
14	Marvin Harrison	at MIN	-
15	Torry Holt	vs. NYG	-
16	Greg Jennings	at DET	-
17	Calvin Johnson	vs. GB	-
18	Roy Williams	vs. GB	-
19	Hines Ward	at CLE	-
20	Lee Evans	at JAC	-
21	Wes Welker	at NYJ	-
22	Joey Galloway	vs. ATL	-
23	Dwayne Bowe	vs. OAK	-
24	Donald Driver	at DET	-
25	Patrick Crayton	vs. PHI	-
26	Santana Moss	vs. NO	-
27	Laveranues Coles	vs. NE	Questionable(thigh)
28	Roddy White	at TB	-
29	Chris Chambers	at DEN	-
30	Antonio Bryant	vs. ATL	-
31	Anthony Gonzalez	at MIN	-
32	D.J. Hackett	vs. CHI	-
33	Eddie Royal	vs. SD
34	DeSean Jackson	at DAL	-
35	Vincent Jackson	at DEN	-
36	Ronald Curry	at KC	-
37	Amani Toomer	at STL	-
38	David Patten	at WAS	-
39	Bernard Berrian	vs. IND	-
40	Sidney Rice	vs. IND	-
41	Jerry Porter	vs. BUF	Game-time Decision
42	Courtney Taylor	vs. SF	-
43	Bryant Johnson	at SEA	-
44	Matt Jones	vs. BUF
45	Kevin Walter	vs. BAL	-
46	Derrick Mason	at HOU	-
47	Mark Clayton	at HOU	-
48	Isaac Bruce	at SEA	-
49	Hank Baskett	at DAL	-
50	Antwaan Randle El	vs. NO	-
51	Muhsin Muhammad	vs. CHI	-
52	Ted Ginn Jr.	at ARZ	-
53	Javon Walker	at KC	-
54	Arnaz Battle	at SEA	-
55	Logan Payne	vs. SF	First NFL start
56	Justin Gage	at CIN	-

WR Notes: Tom Brady's injury had a huge effect on the top of our draft at receiver. Terrell Owens was the first receiver drafted, and Randy Moss went second at No. 23. That sounds about right. Moss would still be in my top-five wideouts, possibly top-three, but the gap between him and the others has been erased. … Andre Johnson quietly got off to a good start in Week 1 and could fill the Moss gap at the top of the year-end receiver rankings. … Torry Holt went fortieth in our draft, which includes a lot of Eagles fans that watched Holt get only one target in Week 1. On one hand, I know not to overreact to the opener. The Rams will pass, and someone has to get the numbers. On the other hand, I choose Holt as one of the most likely veteran players to fall off a cliff in a segment for NBCSports.com. He must prove he has the speed to create separation, especially if he's going to be double-teamed often. He'll get his numbers eventually and be better in fantasy than reality, but they need to start forcing the ball to him.

DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal were two of the toughest players to rank this week. The instinct is to call their games flukes … but 100-yard games in rookie debuts just don't happen. Only one other player in the last 13 seasons have topped 100 yards: Anquan Boldin. (He topped 200). The top eleven debuts for wideouts over that span is littered with stars: Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, Plaxico Burress, Andre Johnson, and Deion Branch. The only name that sticks out is Tulane alum JaJuan Dawson, who had a career-defining injury the following week. Jackson and Royal are here to stay as fantasy factors. They play in excellent systems and with Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks. Royal runs routes like a veteran. Jackson caught some deep passes in traffic. Both are undersized, and thus not ready to be true number one guys. But they can be quality WR3 options who help teams all season. Royal went ninetieth and Jackson at No. 105, by an Eagles fan. But that's a spot after 30 wideouts are off the board, and the placement passed my smell test.

Ted Ginn needs to earn the right to be put in any fantasy roster. Ranking him at all here is kind. … Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne have a great opportunity over the next three weeks, but they must prove they can capitalize before inserting them into lineups. At least Taylor got nine targets. … Two players getting a shocking amount of targets were Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. Moose struggled badly despite getting so much attention. Jake Delhomme forced balls to him. Hackett looked like the best wideout on the team, but that isn't saying much. He's a reasonable WR3 play this week. … Anthony Gonzalez is a much better play this week if Dallas Clark is out.

Don't jump to conclusions on:

Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Braylon Edwards: Top tier wideouts in their prime may have off games, but they rarely have off seasons.

Wes Welker: Matt Cassel won't help, of course, but that doesn't mean he goes back to his Dolphins numbers.

Laveranues Coles: Something tells me the Jets will force the ball to him this week to keep him happy.

Matt Jones: It remains to be seen what his role will be when Jerry Porter is at full strength.

Week 2 Tight Ends

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Jason Witten	vs. PHI	-
2	Kellen Winslow	vs. PIT	-
3	Antonio Gates	at DEN	Probable(hip)
4	Tony Gonzalez	vs. OAK	-
5	Jeremy Shockey	at WAS	-
6	Chris Cooley	vs. NO	Probable(quadriceps)
7	Vernon Davis	at SEA	-
8	Owen Daniels	vs. BAL	-
9	Todd Heap	at HOU	Probable(back)
10	Tony Scheffler	vs. SD	-
11	Heath Miller	at CLE	-
12	L.J. Smith	at DAL	-
13	Dallas Clark	at MIN	Game-time Decision
14	Zach Miller	at KC	-
15	Greg Olsen	at CAR	-
16	Randy McMichael	vs. NYG	-
17	Dante Rosario	vs. CHI	Questionable(foot)
18	Alge Crumpler	at CIN	-
19	Anthony Fasano	at ARZ	-
20	Ben Utecht	vs. TEN	-
21	Marcedes Lewis	vs. BUF	-
22	Donald Lee	at DET	-
23	John Carlson	vs. SF	-
24	Desmond Clark	at CAR	-
25	Bo Scaife	at CIN	-
26	Kevin Boss	at STL	-

TE Notes: Tight ends fell in our draft, with my team kicking off a run by taking Jason Witten with the No. 52 pick. Two rounds later, Anthony Fasano was off the board. Now that's a one week jump! That insane pick aside, Fasano would be worth drafting if in any league today – as a TE2. L.J. Smith also moved up after getting a lot of targets this week. The "problem" at tight end is that it's too easy to fill your starting spot. Quality options like Fasano and Alge Crumpler don't sniff the top-15. The difference between the sixth-ranked tight end this week (Cooley) and the No. 21 option (Fasano) is relatively small. Dante Rosario and Fasano both lined up in the slot quite a bit. That surprised me with Fasano, who isn't exactly fleet of foot, but he knows how to find soft spots in coverage. … While plenty of tight ends have seen short-term boosts, I don't see any major tight end starter who has seen his value decline. Todd Heap couldn't stay healthy for a game, but he's already practicing again. Tony Scheffler came off the bench, but he uncorked a 77-yard play and had a target in the end zone. Dallas Clark is hurt again, but I never had him in the top ten to begin with. Injuries are part of his package. The position is stronger at the top and deeper than ever before.
Week 2 Kickers

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Nick Folk	vs. PHI	-
2	Mason Crosby	at DET	-
3	Stephen Gostkowski	at NYJ	-
4	Josh Scobee	vs. BUF	-
5	Nate Kaeding	at DEN	-
6	Rob Bironas	at CIN	-
7	Ryan Longwell	vs. IND	-
8	Shayne Graham	vs. TEN	-
9	Josh Brown	vs. NYG	-
10	Adam Vinatieri	at MIN	-
11	Neil Rackers	vs. MIA	-
12	Robbie Gould	at CAR	-
13	Jeff Reed	at CLE	-
14	David Akers	at DAL	-
15	Matt Bryant	vs. ATL	-
16	Phil Dawson	vs. PIT	Probable(-)
17	Matt Stover	at HOU	-
18	Martin Gramatica	at WAS	-
19	John Kasay	vs. CHI	-
20	Olindo Mare	vs. SF	-
21	Joe Nedney	at SEA	-
22	Kris Brown	vs. BAL	-
23	Jason Hanson	vs. GB	-
24	Jason Elam	at TB	-
25	Rian Lindell	at JAC	-
26	Matt Prater	vs. SD	-
27	Sebastian Janikowski	at KC	-
28	Jay Feely	vs. NE	-
29	John Carney	at STL	-
30	Shaun Suisham	vs. NO	-
31	Dan Carpenter	at ARZ	-
32	Nick Novak	vs. OAK	-

Week 2 Team Defense

Rank	Player Name	Opponent	Notes
1	Bears Def/Spec Team	at CAR	-
2	Giants Def/Spec Team	at STL	-
3	Patriots Def/Spec Team	at NYJ	-
4	Buccaneers Def/Spec Team	vs. ATL	-
5	Colts Def/Spec Team	at MIN	-
6	Seahawks Def/Spec Team	vs. SF	-
7	Packers Def/Spec Team	at DET	-
8	Titans Def/Spec Team	at CIN	-
9	Chargers Def/Spec Team	at DEN	-
10	Ravens Def/Spec Team	at HOU	-
11	Vikings Def/Spec Team	vs. IND	-
12	Texans Def/Spec Team	vs. BAL	-
13	Cowboys Def/Spec Team	vs. PHI	-
14	Steelers Def/Spec Team	at CLE	-
15	Bills Def/Spec Team	at JAC	-
16	Chiefs Def/Spec Team	vs. OAK	-
17	Bengals Def/Spec Team	vs. TEN	-
18	Cardinals Def/Spec Team	vs. MIA	-
19	Eagles Def/Spec Team	at DAL	-
20	Jaguars Def/Spec Team	vs. BUF	-
21	Panthers Def/Spec Team	vs. CHI	-
22	Broncos Def/Spec Team	vs. SD	-
23	Raiders Def/Spec Team	at KC	-
24	Jets Def/Spec Team	vs. NE	-
25	Saints Def/Spec Team	at WAS	-
26	Fortyniners Def/Spec Team	at SEA	-
27	Redskins Def/Spec Team	vs. NO	-
28	Dolphins Def/Spec Team	at ARZ	-
29	Browns Def/Spec Team	vs. PIT	-
30	Falcons Def/Spec Team	at TB	-
31	Lions Def/Spec Team	vs. GB	-
32	Rams Def/Spec Team	vs. NYG	-

[Hache Man]

The Fall of Willis McGahee
It began months ago.

The Ravens hired no-nonsense Eagles secondary coach John Harbaugh as head coach on January 18. He assembled an all-star supporting staff, retaining defensive boss Rex Ryan and tabbing Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator. Well regarded former Bengals assistant Hue Jackson signed on to tutor the quarterbacks with former 49ers offensive coordinator Jim Hostler named receivers coach.

Cameron pledged to make McGahee an "every-down back" in the spring. Cam's track record with running backs (see LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown's first half in 2007) was impressive and all signs pointed to McGahee getting another heavy workload in 2008, with possibly more involvement in the passing game than ever.

But McGahee didn't endear himself to the new regime right off the bat. He skipped virtually all "non-mandatory" offseason work, and when he finally did report in late May, McGahee was out of shape. Baltimore had used the 55th overall pick on Rutgers' Ray Rice and the rookie began running with the first-team offense early in training camp because McGahee was out with a "leg" injury.

On August 11 it was revealed that McGahee needed arthroscopic surgery on the same knee he had reconstructed several times due to a devastating college injury. He missed the entire preseason. In Week 1, McGahee was active against Cincinnati but did not get the football. The Ravens inserted Lorenzo Neal at fullback and switched LeRon McClain to tailback. McClain totaled 111 yards on 21 touches; Rice 85 on 25 touches.

All along, the clued-in Baltimore Sun beat dropped subtle hints that McGahee had fallen out of favor, at one point even suggesting he might not last the season on the roster. Friday's edition ran an alarming column entitled "McGahee falling out of the running." The story's first line is "In the Ravens' new running scheme, the joke could end up being on Willis McGahee." It goes on to essentially assert that a committee backfield is imminent and that McGahee may not even start Week 2 despite taking most of the practice reps all week and being listed as "probable."

Admittedly, it's hard to believe in McClain. He's a fullback. At the 2007 Combine, McClain ran a 4.86 forty. He's 260 pounds, but this isn't Brandon Jacobs we're talking about. Rice has good hands, tackle-breaking ability, and more potential long term, but he's small and fumbled in the opener.

Still, McGahee's outlook is bleak. Even in a Week 2 matchup against a Texans team that was gashed for 183 yards (4.7 YPC) on the ground and three rushing touchdowns in Week 1, and may not have had nose tackle Travis Johnson due to knee and ankle injuries, McGahee was a certain "sit" in fantasy leagues. With news now that the game may not be played until late October, any Texan or Raven should be removed from your fantasy lineup.

There is a decent enough chance that McGahee will get his job back because the Ravens' alternatives appear underwhelming at the moment. But losing goal-line carries to McClain and passing-down work to Rice would sap his value. A full blown three-headed monster would make McGahee near unplayable week-to-week even in the finest of matchups.

While you contemplate those thoughts and immediately remove members of either team from your starting roster, here are some key injury situations to distract your attention...

Note: You can get weekly stat projections for all these players via our Rotoworld.com Season Pass. For those new to this site, it has a nifty tool called the Rotoworld Oracle, which takes in the stat projections, your league's custom scoring and roster configuration, and advises exactly who to start each week. It's less than $1 a week, and only one of the many tools and content in the package. Click here to check it out; it might be the best weekly dollar you've ever spent.

Important Game-Time Decisions

Arms
Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben practiced fully on Friday and will be in the starting l/u.

Wides
Reggie Brown - Called "questionable," but is closer to doubtful to make an impact.
Laveranues Coles - Coles is very likely to play against hurting Patriots secondary.
Jerry Porter - Should be active, but figures to rotate as he gets back to full strength.
Donte' Stallworth - Doubtful with no chance to play after missing practices all week.
Javon Walker - The Raiders say he'll be active, but Ashley Lelie could start over him.
Miles Austin - Expected to play, operate as Dallas' fourth receiving option on MNF.
Devin Hester - He'll play, but Hester saw minimal snaps on offense in Bears' opener.
Maurice Stovall - Bucs' fourth receiver is a game-time decision against the Falcons.
Jabar Gaffney - Long-shot chance at value evaporated with Tom Brady's torn ACL.
Joshua Cribbs - Figures to return from high ankle sprain Sunday night vs. Steelers.
Dennis Northcutt - Jags' slot receiver considered probable to play against the Bills.
Malcolm Kelly - Uncertain to play, but did run with Skins' first team a bit this week.
Demetrius Williams, Yamon Figurs – Remove any Ravens, Texans from lineups.
Donnie Avery - Has earned no real value to Rams, and definitely fantasy leaguers.
Ruvell Martin - Replaced as Green Bay's third receiver by return of James Jones.

Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson - Expected to start in beautiful matchup against the Broncos.
Ryan Grant - Make sure he's active, but cannot be on benches in matchup @ DET.
Willis McGahee – Remove immediately from your lineup.
Matt Forte - Has a "tight" ankle, but phenom is virtually certain to start at Carolina.
Brandon Jackson - Recovered from concussion, worth grabbing for Grant owners.
Deuce McAllister - Deuce's ceiling for Sunday's game is probably about 5 carries.

Ends
Antonio Gates - Probable, will start against Broncos team that struggles vs. TEs.
Chris Cooley - Will play in terrific on-paper matchup against ailing Saints defense.
Dallas Clark - Guessing he'll be inactive; Gijon Robinson is Clark's clear backup.
Donte Rosario - Is expected to play despite "questionable" listing on injury report.
Ben Watson - Knee healing, but Watson is still not a recommended fantasy play.

Legs
Jason Elam - If Falcons add a kicker Saturday, it's an indication Elam won't play.

Already Ruled Out for Week 2

Arms
Tom Brady - Placed on injured reserve; Matt Cassel should be owned in all leagues.
Vince Young - Has sprained MCL, Titans frighteningly have V.Y. on suicide watch.
Jeff Garcia - Has likely lost his starting job to Brian Griese, at least for time being.
Brodie Croyle - Separated throwing shoulder has thrust Damon Huard into QB job.
Alex Smith - Fractured throwing shoulder has Smith heading for Tim Couch status.
Michael Vick - Remains imprisoned, can safely be dropped in all re-draft formats.
Troy Smith - Smith remains out indefinitely following crippling bout with tonsillitis.

Wides
Marques Colston - Expected to miss 6 weeks after tearing ligament in his thumb.
Steve Smith (Panthers) - Will comes off suspension in Week 3 to face Minnesota.
Kevin Curtis - Curtis claims he's healing well, but is unlikely to play before Week 7.
Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu - Wow this is bad.
Drew Bennett - Has broken foot; Dane Looker likely to start but rotate vs. Giants.
Chris Henry - Suspended Bengals third receiver comes off suspension in Week 5.
Sam Hurd - Still recovering from high ankle sprain; Hurd could be back in Week 3.
Joe Jurevicius - On the PUP list, but J.J. seems unlikely to play at all this season.
Troy Williamson - Prime chance at playing time has slid through his butter fingers.

Backs
Ahman Green - Steve Slaton would've started, but game has been postponed.
Maurice Morris - Julius Jones will serve as Seahawks' feature back against 49ers.
Ryan Torain - Due back around Week 9 and candidate for a significant role then.
Carnell Williams - On PUP with possible Week 7 return, but that seems unlikely.
Aaron Stecker - Deuce McAllister to be active Sunday, but may not play much.

Ends
Jacob Tamme - Rookie from Kentucky was ruled out Friday due to ankle injury.

Legs
Lawrence Tynes - Tynes remains out indefinitely; John Carney is filling the void.
Mike Nugent - Jay Feely stepping in as Jets' starter while Nugent's thigh heals.



Week 2 Matchups to Exploit

Packers RB Ryan Grant @ Lions
Time: 1PM ET

Grant is listed as questionable for Sunday with lingering hamstring soreness. However, he practiced fully on Friday and coach Mike McCarthy said afterwards the Grant "looked good" and "better than he did before the opener." Grant ran only 12 times, but for 92 yards last week against Minnesota. Because he's healthier now, a logical guess would give Grant 15-18 touches at Detroit. The Lions' run defense posted the NFC's worst yards-per-carry average in 2007 and Detroit traded its best run defender (Shaun Rogers) in the offseason. Makes sense. Be sure that Grant is active Sunday morning -- the guess here is he will be for a key division game -- but he should be confidently penciled into fantasy lineups.

Redskins TE Chris Cooley vs. Saints
Time: 1PM ET

The strong side of New Orleans' defense is reeling with SAM linebacker Scott Fujita (knee) and SS Roman Harper (hamstring) both ruled out for Sunday's contest. The Saints also lost Fujita's top backup, Mark Simoneau, to injured reserve on Friday. That means career special teamer Troy Evans will start at outside linebacker with journeyman Kevin Kaesviharn taking Harper's place in the back. Cooley started slow against the Giants with only one catch, but the Saints could have a hard time containing him in Week 2. Harper and Fujita are both 90-100 tackle players annually, so their absence upgrades Clinton Portis' matchup as well.

Seahawks WR Logan Payne vs. 49ers
Time: 4:05PM ET

Courtney Taylor drew all the preseason hype in Seattle's receiver corps because he was the first to claim a starting job. But Taylor floundered in Week 1, dropping several balls, and may have lost Matt Hasselbeck's trust. Payne, a 6'2/205-pound white guy who went undrafted in 2007 out of Minnesota, is the newest member of the starting lineup. Payne has vertical ability and will run downfield routes in Mike Holmgren's West Coast attack. He's consistently impressed the Seahawks' coaching staff in practice and is a candidate to lead the team in targets Sunday. Payne also draws the better matchup against 34-year-old 49ers RCB Walt Harris. Taylor will mostly see Nate Clements in coverage. If you're looking for a sleeper WR3, Payne is your guy.

Buccaneers WR Antonio Bryant vs. Falcons
Time: 4:05PM ET

There was a peculiar sudden outcry last week against Rotoworld for "overhyping" Antonio Bryant. But Bryant actually had a pretty promising first game, seeing eight targets and going for 43 yards in his first action with Jeff Garcia of either player's career. Bryant caught way more practice passes from Brian Griese during training camp while Garcia sat out all summer with a calf injury. Now that Griese's been promoted to the starting lineup, the duo could click. Against a Falcons defense that is weak in the secondary, Bryant is a highly recommended WR3 play. Bryant is likely to see a lot of former NFL Europa cornerback Brent Grimes in primary coverage Sunday. Grimes surrendered seven catches and 107 yards to Calvin Johnson last week.

Week 2 Matchups to Avoid

Falcons WR Michael Jenkins @ Buccaneers
Time: 4:05PM ET

Jenkins made highlight reels as the recipient of Matt Ryan's first NFL touchdown pass in Week 1. He is a starter over Laurent Robinson. But that was the only catch Jenkins had and Ryan tried just 13 passes all game. This week Ryan might even throw less. The Bucs' secondary is quite possibly the NFC's best unit and Atlanta's new coaching staff is of a strict ball-control mindset. The Falcons will hit the ground running against a relatively undersized Tampa front that may be minus WLB Derrick Brooks, who's questionable with a hamstring injury and didn't practice all week. Jenkins beat out Robinson because he's a vicious blocker and that's what he'll be doing on Sunday.

Dolphins RB Ricky Williams @ Cardinals
Time: 4:15PM ET

Fumbling in the opener appears to have cost Ricky his starting job. The Dolphins inserted Ronnie Brown as a first-teamer at Wednesday's practice and figure to keep the depth chart that way in Arizona. The Cardinals can be exploited against the run as long as nose tackle Gabe Watson is out of the lineup (he's expected to miss his second straight game this week), but Brown is the best bet to carry the bulk of the load. Williams recently signed an extension and should remain involved going forward, but a backup role and 10-12 carry per week ceiling with little receiving potential (Patrick Cobbs is ahead of him on third downs) would makes Ricky pretty unusable. Brown is a much better bet as a flex fantasy play.

Patriots RB Laurence Maroney @ Jets
Time: 4:15PM ET

Turning around a run defense typically doesn't happen overnight, but the Jets looked much improved in their opener against a Dolphins team whose strength was supposed to be on the ground. New York finally has a blocker occupying nose tackle in Kris Jenkins and a run-stopping inside linebacker in David Harris. Calvin Pace is a massive upgrade over Victor Hobson at LOLB, in every possible area. Maroney started Week 1, but Sammy Morris got more snaps and again has the "hot hand" and a firm grasp on goal-line carries. It could be a long season for Maroney owners, who should explore other options at RB2 this week. The theory that the Patriots will run more following Tom Brady's injury may prove true, but it doesn't by any means guarantee that Maroney will be more than a frustrating fantasy commodity.