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Old 08-16-06, 11:35 PM   #1
Hache Man
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Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
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Arrow Options Wide Open At Top Of WR Chart

Options wide open at top of WR chart
You'll find plenty of quantity and quality at wide receiver this year, but you won't always find it in the right place.

And that's what is causing head-scratching at this position. At the top, too many good players make for surprisingly difficult decisions. Then there are several quarterbacks, who should be good picks this year, wondering who they will be throwing to.

A logjam of talent with barely discernible differences at the top of this year's receiver class demands you form precise opinions on the elite players — and devalues them all. Seven receivers easily could be the best at the position. When so many are so good, each one drops down a little. Why hurry to draft Larry Fitzgerald in the second round when Marvin Harrison in the third could be just as good?

This position usually is a deep one; unless your league drafts a dozen receivers a team, you'll be plucking second and third starters off waivers all year. The difference now is the jumble at the top. It is worth sorting out but not worth getting worked up over. When you're ready to consider drafting your first receiver — in the third round for many owners — take any one of the top seven and don't worry if the guy you really wanted is gone.

The Carolina Panthers' Steve Smith is my No. 1 receiver, coming off a season in which he tied or led the league in catches, yards and touchdowns, assuming his hamstring injury is not an issue in three weeks. Newcomer Keyshawn Johnson could suck a few catches away from Smith, but his presence also will open up the field more. Jake Delhomme is becoming a top-tier fantasy quarterback, and he will have more opportunities to hit Smith on game-breaking plays.

Fitzgerald is a notch ahead of Terrell Owens, but I'd be plenty comfortable with T.O., even with his personal foibles. When evaluating Owens, forget about last season and think back to 2004, when he was the NFL's most dominant receiver before his ankle injury. All is rosy in Dallas, and that is the Owens we will see out of the gate.

Any of the rest of the top seven —Chad Johnson, Harrison, Randy Moss, Torry Holt— can carry your club as a lead receiver. Each has question marks and enormous upside. Moss probably would be the biggest bargain. His stock plummeted after his mediocre 2005 and the Oakland Raiders' offensive overhaul that left shaky Aaron Brooks at quarterback.

You would be well-served to nab one of that group because the talent after those seven drops off to a wider but less-talented pool and you will be scrambling to load up on second-tier players. The owner who lands two of the top seven obviously will have a dominant receiving corps but might not have a well-rounded team if the price was two picks in the first three rounds.

Help wanted

If you miss out on the top group, you will be like some NFL teams who are wishing they had a stronger crop of receivers. Clubs such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots are wondering what they will get from their receivers, and you have to wonder what to expect from those teams' quarterbacks.

The Eagles appear to be in the most trouble at the position, especially with Todd Pinkston having problems with a sore Achilles' tendon. Pinkston is no great receiver, but he is experienced in the Eagles offense and could have been the default No. 1 receiver.

Without him, the Eagles' two receivers are Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis. Their stats combined last year (91 catches, 1,132 yards, five TDs) were about equal to those of the Denver Broncos' Rod Smith, who has never been a compelling fantasy receiver. The team also loves Hank Baskett, but counting on an undrafted rookie is dangerous territory.

For a team that loves to throw as much as the Eagles do, the lack of proven depth will come back to haunt Donovan McNabb. He was never more than a mid-tier fantasy quarterback pre-T.O., and he consistently has been one of the most overdrafted quarterbacks this summer. He scarcely runs any more, and at least a dozen other quarterbacks will throw the 20-21 TDs you can expect out of him.

If only Michael Vick could throw that many TDs, he might be closer to being the fantasy savior that has been expected of him the last three years. Losing Brian Finneran to a knee injury is a surprisingly big blow considering Finneran caught only two TDs last year.

Now the Falcons' leading returning receiver is Michael Jenkins, who had 36 catches. Jenkins and Roddy White will be in position for big jumps in production, and they have the talent to do so. But they have little behind them, and Vick again will be forced to lean heavily on tight end Alge Crumpler. That trio is good enough to help Vick post better passing numbers, but when you give Vick the passer that little margin for error, you're asking for trouble.

The Patriots and Seattle Seahawks also are fretting over their receiver situations, which could do serious damage to valuable quarterbacks Tom Brady and Matt Hasselbeck.

Even assuming Deion Branch is a factor for the Patriots, they have little wide receiver help behind him. Reche Caldwell and rookie Chad Jackson are long shots to carry the weight, and veteran Troy Brown's best playmaking days are in the past. Brady will need a big season from tight end Ben Watson (29 catches in 2005) to live up to his billing as the No. 2 quarterback behind Peyton Manning.

For Hasselbeck, at least he knows what it is like to play without Darrell Jackson, who missed much of last season because of a knee injury. Healthy, Jackson is a top-20 receiver. His recurring knee problems are certain to limit him early in the year, putting the onus on veteran Bobby Engram and newcomer Nate Burleson. Hasselbeck will have a tough time matching last season's Jackson-less success because Joe Jurevicius (10 TDs) is gone and tight end Jerramy Stevens has been slow to recover from offseason knee surgery.

Around the league

• A prime breakout tight end candidate is the Tennessee Titans' Ben Troupe. He improved all of his stats considerably from his rookie season to last year and is ready to take another step — as long as Billy Volek and not Vince Young is the quarterback. Erron Kinney will miss most of the preseason because of knee surgery, making Troupe the team's only legitimate receiving tight end to open the year.

• I have seen Houston Texans running back Domanick Davis as a first-round draft pick in some leagues, which is absurd considering his injury risk. Even if new coach Gary Kubiak turns out to be the miracle running back worker that some expect, he won't do Davis a bit of good if Davis is hobbling around on the sideline. I'm still glad we do not have to get bogged down in idle speculation about what Reggie Bush could do for this team.
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