Questionable Players You Will Be Tempted To Draft In Your Fantasy Football League

[Hache Man]

Value or Vortex: The draft's trickiest calls
June 18, 2008




I've been thinking about recent mock drafts I've taken part in, and the players I'm about to discuss don't fit neatly into the typical categories. These are players who sit at the top of the draft board round after round almost daring you to pick them. They could be bargains, but since they are slipping so far, so fast they aren't overvalued and therefore can't be true bust candidates. They eventually could become stumblers, but these types usually have too much history behind them to be called sleepers.

It's almost as if the rankings gods put these players out there specifically to torture us. We are left to wonder: Is this player a value because he has lasted longer than anyone expected? Or am I getting suckered into making a bad pick? In other words, is a vortex sucking me in only to chew me up and spit me out?

Now that you've added the word vortex to your vocabulary it's time to ask one more question: When does a player transform from a value into somebody's unwanted junk? Here are 10 players who I've noticed are lasting longer in drafts than I expected and my advice on whether you should give in to the temptation of drafting them.

1. Torry Holt, WR, Rams. Holt has been a lock as a second-round pick since he posted 1,635 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2000. However, Holt is falling out of favor -- all the way down to the fourth round in our site's most recent mock draft.
Holt's age (he'll be 32 when the season starts) and a chronic knee problem are holding him back. Plus, younger options such as Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston and Braylon Edwards are more exciting for owners to draft at wide receiver. But even in what could be considered a "down" season in 2007, Holt had 93 receptions for 1,189 yards and seven scores.
Ruling: If the Rams avoid the injuries at quarterback, running back and offensive line that plagued them last season and Holt's knee holds up, he will be a value in the fourth round or later. I know, that's a lot of "ifs," but such is life in the value bin.

2. Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts. Here's another guy who has been a second-round staple for years in fantasy leagues -- and one I have a soft spot for because he was on one of my championship teams in 2006. But he missed 11 games last season with an injury to his left knee and had to have arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in the offseason. Then there's the pending investigation of a shooting that occurred outside Harrison's car wash that involved one of Harrison's guns.
But brush off the gun powder for a moment and look at the consistency Harrison has provided when healthy. Before last season he had topped 1,100 yards receiving and scored double-digit touchdowns for eight consecutive seasons. Even though he will be 36 years old in August, Harrison keeps himself in good shape and benefits greatly from being in a Peyton Manning-led offense.
Ruling: I'm leaning toward a value pick here if Harrison lasts till the fourth round or later. But I need to see him on the field before giving him a full seal of approval. It's good to hear that the gun investigation has stalled. But if I were to draft Harrison, I'd make sure to add Anthony Gonzalez as insurance.

3. Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals. James will hit age 30 in August, and fantasy owners know that's a tough barrier for NFL running backs to cross and still remain effective. In fact, it's no surprise that age is a big factor on fantasy owners' minds with James being the third consecutive 30-plus guy on our list.
James saw a slight increase in yards-per-carry (up to 3.8 from 3.4) last season under Ken Whisenhunt, but it wasn't enough to make fantasy owners say, "Wow!" That's because James did not show much explosiveness on the way to 1,222 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and the Cardinals started to lessen his workload (carries were down 13 from the previous year). But James has rushed for 1,000 yards for five consecutive seasons and has played all 16 games in the past two years.
Ruling: James dropped to the fifth round in our draft, and I was the one who picked him. Like the Cardinals, I'm hoping to squeeze one more year out of him, but I wouldn't draft him earlier than this and preferably as a No. 3 than a No. 2. Because Arizona waited till the fifth round of the real draft to snag Tim Hightower, James will be Arizona's main man, even if his carries do continue to decrease.

4. Donald Driver, WR, Packers. Yet another 30-plus player cracks our list, indicating that fantasy owners are worse than Hollywood directors when it comes to looking for the young, hot thing. Driver topped 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth consecutive season in 2007, but his touchdowns dropped from eight to two last year as Greg Jennings became the Packers' top scoring option among wide receivers.
With Brett Favre retired and the offense in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, fantasy owners are leaving the Driver in the bag in recent drafts. He has lasted to the fifth round or later, despite playing in a division with two of the worst pass defenses (Vikings, Lions) judging by last year's stats.
Ruling: Whether Driver is a value pick is tied closely to whether you believe Rodgers is as good as his one big NFL game (against the Cowboys in Week 13 when he threw for 201 yards). I'm finding it hard to trust Rodgers, so I'll pass on Driver.

5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals. Before last season, Johnson was a machine. For three consecutive years he rushed for exactly 12 touchdowns and topped 1,300 yards rushing. But Johnson missed five games -- and parts of others -- last season with a hamstring injury.
Johnson never has been what you'd consider an explosive back, and he'll turn 29 this season. But if his hamstring is healthy, he'll still have a good offense in which to run and he has been a reliable runner in the past. Problem is coordinator Bob Bratkowski already has said this will be a back-by-committee situation.
Ruling: Even though DeDe Dorsey, one of the backs that is supposed to share carries with Johnson, already is battling a hamstring injury, I still think Kenny Watson and Chris Perry could be enough to hold Johnson's numbers down from previous levels.

6. Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles. It was revealed this offseason that McNabb was battling shoulder tendinitis, and the Eagles, of course, immediately started downplaying the situation. Coach Andy Reid said McNabb has an injury reminiscent of the one he had in 2004 when he missed just one game (Week 17 as Philly rested for the playoffs). But the Eagles shut down McNabb for passing camp earlier this month, and he has not played all 16 games in a season since 2003.
Ruling: McNabb lasted till the eighth round in our draft, when Marc Bulger and Jake Delhomme also were picked. All of these guys have injury questions, so I suggest grabbing a No. 1 QB earlier than this and avoiding such risks.

7. Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders. Fargas went off the board in the eighth round in SN's draft and lasted even longer in another mock I did. Apparently, not many owners are buying into Fargas after the first 1,000-yard season of his career. Further fodder for this Raider's group of haters is the fact Oakland drafted Darren McFadden and lavished $60 million on him -- or enough to cover several of teammate Javon Walker's champagne celebrations. Oh yeah, and don't forget about Michael Bush stealing some goal-line carries, too.
Ruling: In case you can't figure it out, I'm not too high on Fargas. Besides having to share carries, he has his own issues, including a bill of health that hasn't been too clean over the course of his career.

8. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. If you believe all the stuff that is coming out of 49ers minicamps, you'd think Mike Martz finally has seen the light about utilizing the tight end. But I happen to believe Martz is merely doing the smart thing by involving one of his best athletes in Davis in different sets. Let's face it, there's not a whole lot of reliable help at wide receiver when your leading options are Isaac Bruce and Arnaz Battle. Plus, will Alex Smith finally prove he can be a consistent NFL QB? I have my doubts.
Ruling: I'm intrigued as heck about grabbing Davis in the eighth round (where he went in our mock), but I think I'll address the tight end position sooner to try to get a player who is more reliable and plays for a better offense.

9. Deuce McAllister, RB, Saints. The Deuce was loose all the way until the 11th round in our mock -- and with good reason. He had ACL surgery on one knee, plus a microfracture surgery to promote cartilage growth on the other. McAllister will turn 30 at the end of the season, but he reportedly has looked good while participating on a limited basis in offseason team activities. McAllister was a 1,000-yard rusher who scored 10 touchdowns two short seasons ago. But he lasted only three games and five games, respectively, in 2007 and 2005.
Ruling: Backs take a lot of pounding over the years, and one that is nearing 30 and coming off two knee surgeries is just too risky for my blood.

10. Ravens defense/special teams. Baltimore was one of the elite defenses that owners took in the ninth or 10th round last year, but the Ravens swooped down to the 16th round this year. What happened? Injuries to Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle caused the Ravens' pass defense to suffer. However, with both of those guys healthy and with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and run stoppers Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg still around, Baltimore is a bounce-back candidate. Problem is the Ravens' offense is going through a transition at quarterback and could put the defense in some precarious spots. Ruling: I wouldn't be too disappointed if I was left with Baltimore as my starting defense in one of the final rounds.

[Jagermeister]

Vernon Davis = stud (when he's healthy, which seems like never).