RBs Of The Near Future

[Hache Man]

RBs of the Near Future

Anyone can tell you the starting running backs around the NFL right now. It takes a subjective and irresponsible column like this one to tell you what the depth chart will look like in Week 14, when the fantasy football playoffs hit.

This edition of Training Camp Lowdown will start with a December forecast before going over all the preseason stories that didn’t show up in the box score last week, but showed up on Tivo. Before I get started, I have received many emails looking for more Mock Draft analysis. I participated in one of the best Wednesday night, the Site Owners Fantasy Association (SOFA) Classic league. While my full writeup is coming Sunday night, check out the results now if you need help before the weekend.

Week 14 Backfields

AFC

Buffalo Bills – Willis McGahee, Anthony Thomas – Lionel Gates could take the backup role in time, but the fantasy impact is minimal.

Miami Dolphins – Ronnie Brown, Sammy Morris – The Dolphins should be stable barring injury.

New England Patriots – Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney – The presence of Maroney makes it more likely that Dillon will stay healthy for the season. I see the Patriots splitting carries evenly, but they will let the veteran be the starter.

New York Jets – Kevan Barlow, Leon Washington – New York is likely to rotate in another veteran, whether it’s Cedric Houston, Derrick Blaylock, or possibly Curtis Martin.

Baltimore Ravens – Musa Smith, Mike Anderson – Jamal Lewis still isn’t physically right and he won’t take a benching well. It would be an upset if he made it through 16 games.

Cincinnati Bengals – Rudi Johnson, Chris Perry – Perry will be healthy by the second half of the season.

Cleveland Browns – Reuben Droughns, Jerome Harrison – Harrison makes Lee Suggs and William Green unnecessary. His excellent preseason showing could result in a big role.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker, Verron Haynes – Duce Staley will be gone by December.

Houston Texans – Wali Lundy, Vernand Morency – Even if Domanick Davis comes back, don’t assume he’ll get all the carries at that time. They may split him with Lundy or Morency to keep him healthy. Davis doesn’t appear close to being ready to play.

Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes – Addai’s ascension may take longer than we originally expected, but his passing game skills will make him the starter before fantasy playoff time.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Greg Jones, Maurice Drew – Predicting injuries is tricky, unless Fred Taylor is involved. Even if Taylor is healthy, Jones may get a crack during the season.

Tennessee Titans – LenDale White, Chris Brown – If Brown gets hurt; Travis Henry could play a larger role. But I don’t see the Titans contending this season and they may hand the team over to Vince Young and White by December.

Denver Broncos – Mike Bell, Tatum Bell – Based on Mike Shanahan’s track record, don’t count out Ron Dayne, Cedric Cobbs, and Damien Nash as roster-worthy players if they make the team.

Kansas City Chiefs – Larry Johnson, Dee Brown – Michael Bennett can’t stay healthy, even as a backup.

Oakland Raiders – Lamont Jordan, Justin Fargas – Fargas should have a bigger role this season.

San Diego Chargers – LaDainian Tomlinson, Mike Turner – This is the best 1-2 punch in football.

NFC

Dallas Cowboys – Julius Jones, Marion Barber – Coach Parcells says Barber will stick to a third-down role and I believe him.

New York Giants – Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward – I understand predicting injuries are almost impossible. But Tiki is the most likely bust in the first round of this year’s fantasy draft because he is a major risk to break down physically because of age and usage.

Philadelphia Eagles – Stephen Davis, Dorsey Levens – After Brian Westbrook and Ryan Moats get hurt, Andy Reid will unveil his three wideout, two tight end formation and eschew the running game entirely.

Washington Redskins – Clinton Portis, T.J. Duckett- Portis’ shoulder injury is a major concern because it could re-occur and knock him out of games early, similar to his effort in the playoffs last season when Ladell Betts had to finish games for him.

Chicago Bears – Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson – If either player goes down, don’t discount Adrian Peterson’s chances of having a major role in the offense.

Detroit Lions – Kevin Jones, Brian Calhoun – Jones has to improve his ability to break tackles to be a quality RB2.

Green Bay Packers – Samkon Gado, Arliss Beach – I’m just throwing darts here. I don’t think Najeh Davenport will make it out of training camp and he’s likely to get hurt along the way if he does. Ahman Green, along with Carson Palmer, is the player to watch this week in preseason action. He hasn’t played in ten months. Gado hasn't stood out in camp, but the Green Bay media all agrees he's currently next in line behind Green. That's a good place to be. Beach is an undrafted rookie who has impressed.

Minnesota Vikings – Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore – Minnesota may lead the NFL in catches by running backs. Brad Johnson loves the short game, they have the personnel, and they don’t have a good receiver corps.

Atlanta Falcons – Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood – Right behind Tiki on the most-likely-to-break down list is Dunn. Back-to-back career highs in carries are usually bad news for the over030 crowd.

Carolina Panthers – DeAngelo Williams, Nick Goings – Try as they might, the Panthers just can’t find enough runners to pass Goings on the depth chart. DeShaun Foster may be unlucky with injuries, but he’s consistently unlucky.

New Orleans Saints – Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister – If Bush doesn’t “start” by Week 14, he will still be a bigger part of the offense than McAllister. New Orleans just wants to keep both players healthy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Carnell Williams, Michael Pittman – Throw in Mike Alstott in short-yardage situations, and the Bucs could have the most versatile backfield in football.

Arizona Cardinals – Edgerrin James, Marcel Shipp – At least Arizona won’t be resting James for the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers – Frank Gore, Maurice Hicks – Michael Robinson will also have a role, possibly passing Hicks over time.

St. Louis Rams – Steven Jackson, Onterrio Smith – After Moe Williams breaks down, Scott Linehan will look for another running back from his coaching past. Michael Bennett isn’t available.

Seattle Seahawks – Shaun Alexander, Maurice Morris – Making this list has inspired me to make a top ten running backs likely to physically break down this season. Alexander is near the top.

Beyond the Box Score

Box score analysts do not wait for the regular season. They pounce upon August football, drawing conclusions from rushing leaders despite the player running with the third team. This is not to say preseason box scores are worthless. Reading the play-by-play to find out when a player is on the field and how they are used can be very instructive.

Watching the games is still the best way to learn about a player. Since most people have to work for a living, I’ll compile my notes from my week of Tivo tape here. Here’s what I learned this week …

Mike Bell is a power running back. I needed to watch tape on Bell to know this because, like most everyone in America, I know very little about Mike Bell. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan likes Bell because he’s decisive, has great vision and gets yards-after-contact. Tatum Bell does not get yards-after-contact.

Mike Bell had very few runs in Denver’s game where he didn’t break a tackle or push the pile forward two-to-three yards. Shanahan showed faith in Mike as a goal-line option by giving him three straight chances inside the five-yard line. He absolutely ran over Tennessee linebacker Peter Sirmon to score a touchdown. Sirmon was squared up when he made contact with Bell at the one-yard line and the Arizona product scored easily. That play was rewound all week by the Mastermind while he tapped his fingertips together and cackled to no one in particular. Mike Bell is going to take over Mike Anderson’s role in the offense.

Tatum will still have a big role because he is a home run hitter. Mike Bell’s highlight reel run was a 34-yard scamper, but the play pointed out his biggest weakness. Tatum would have scored easily with so much running room. Mike Bell’s touchdown, however, came only a series after Tatum failed in a short-yardage situation. The Broncos needed one yard for a first down and gave it to Tatum for two straight plays. No gain. No gain. I have a feeling Mike Shanahan will gladly sacrifice some long speed to pick up that yard.

The Kansas City offensive line is in shambles. Could this off-season be going any worse for them? Tackles John Welbourn and Willie Roaf are retired. Guards Brian Waters and Will Shields are both out with injuries. Football Outsiders noted this week that Kyle Turley was lost starting at left tackle. The Giants manhandled Kansas City’s offensive line.

Larry Johnson owners should take note. He’s not going to average 5.2 yards-per-carry behind this line. More importantly, if defensive lines can create pressure without blitzing, they will load up to stop Johnson. I wouldn’t touch Trent Green this season. If Green gets pummeled, he will wear down. Kansas City is currently using Damon Huard as his backup. You’d think Herm Edwards would have a better backup quarterback after his final season in New York. If the passing game collapses, LJ won’t have as many chances to score.

Tennessee’s offensive line is also struggling badly, but they don’t have injuries to blame. Billy Volek was sacked three times in limited work, twice by someone named Demetrin Veal. Volek also threw an interception, but a receiver fell on the play. Volek’s spotty career is skewed because of a string of games in 2004 versus terrible opponents where he threw the ball 40 times a game. He looked poor last year, once being benched for Matt Mauck, and won’t survive behind a weak offensive line.

The Titans reshuffled most of their line for the second straight year this off-season. The running backs have had no holes to run through in both preseason games.

Tennessee’s camp has been discouraging overall. 22 players missed practice Wednesday! Safety Chris Hope has criticized the attitude of the team and the lax atmosphere, saying poor play has no repercussions. Keith Bulluck backed up the idea that enough players don’t care. Players supposedly “tune out” their head coach after so many years. I’ve always been wary of this theory, but most of the Tennessee roster hasn’t won much at the pro level. It makes you wonder if coach Jeff Fisher’s run in Tennessee is almost up.

One of the most disappointing aspects of Titans camp has been the slow development of LenDale White. He missed many practices with various injuries, and then was suspended for the first preseason game after spitting on a teammate. There are signs he’s turning it around.

White is still behind Travis Henry on the depth chart, but he looked strong in his first preseason effort. Despite being hit in the backfield a few times, White pushed forward for 28 yards on seven carries. I’ve watched almost every carry of Henry’s since he joined the Titans. No “power” running back in the league hits the ground so easily. Look for White to take over the backup role shortly and bite into Chris Brown’s workload.

Brown, of course, can only start as long as he stays healthy. I’m not sure I’ve ever watched Brown play without seeing him take a huge hit. His upright style just begs for it and Brown doesn’t see the contact coming. He was pounded by Kenard Lang one play last week, got up grimacing, and left the game. He didn’t return. That sequence is the main reason I still see White as a fabulous mid-round RB4 gamble at running back.

To borrow a much better writer's expression, Titans tight end Bo Scaife is offically a reverse Reggie Cleveland all star.

Cedric Houston may have lost his roster spot with one play. His fumble near the goal line last weekend was careless, and Kevan Barlow was acquired a few days later. Houston has gone from a potential fantasy sleeper to someone that might not make the team. My advice is to stay away from the entire Jets roster except for Laveranues Coles.

Texans RB Vernand Morency is a surprisingly physical runner. He has a reputation for “dancing” around the line of scrimmage, but he’s taken quickly to Texans coach Gary Kubiak’s one-cut system. His 43-yard touchdown got the headlines, but his speed wasn’t the question. I was much more impressed with Morency’s ability to run over a Rams defender on the goal line. Later, he turned a two-yard gain into eight yards, dragging four defenders with him before he went down. Finally, he made an outstanding block to keep Sage Rosenfels upright.

This type of performance is what the preseason is all about. Is Morency going to be a star? Who knows? But Morency made the team and earned a role last week. Rookie Wali Lundy has also looked impressive in two outings. I expect Texans coach Gary Kubiak to split the team’s carries between his two young backs until Domanick Davis returns, if he ever does. It’s only the preseason, but the bigger story here is that Houston’s system is working. Davis went in the fifth round of my recent industry draft. Morency and Lundy look like good RB4/5 candidates around round eleven. Who needs Reggie Bush?

The Philadelphia coaching staff is losing faith in Ryan Moats. His box score told most of the story last weekend: Seven carries, seven yards, and a fumble. He didn’t play until the second half. Bringing Stephen Davis in for a physical was an indictment of Moats and Correll Buckhalter. Someone is going to have to carry the load if Brian Westbrook goes down, but Moats looks unlikely to get 20 touches in a game anytime soon. At best, he’ll split carries. If fantasy leaguers can’t start him with Westbrook out, he’s only a flier pick.

Aaron Gleeman ably touched on the New England backfield Tuesday, but it’s a situation that bears repeating. One of the most common complaints in fantasy football is how the Patriots spread the ball around to their receivers. Expect them to do the exact same thing with their running backs this season.

Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, and Laurence Maroney were rotated in the first half of last week’s preseason game. Faulk will get the bulk of work on third downs, while Dillon and Maroney may alternate series’ all season to stay fresh. Maroney and Ben Watson are the two most explosive offensive players New England has on the roster and Bill Belichick will get the ball in their hands.

Dillon may still be the man in the red zone, where he was very effective last season. With that said, don’t expect more than 200-225 carries for any New England runner if everyone’s healthy. Based on their Average Draft Position (ADP), both Dillon and Maroney look overvalued because they will be inconsistent on a weekly basis.

Expect Tom Brady’s yardage and yards-per-attempt to go down significantly this season. The team is transitioning to a run-first squad to take advantage of their strengths. Brady excelled at vertical passes the last two seasons, but the team will use their tight ends and running backs more in the passing game because of personnel. The short passing game, including more screens, will make a return to Foxborough.

Musa Smith is far more explosive than Jamal Lewis and Mike Anderson at this stage of their careers. This isn’t a huge surprise considering Smith has 21 career carries. Lewis has over 1,500 has played older for two straight seasons. Anderson is the same age as Curtis Martin.

I don’t want to get carried away with preseason efforts, but it’s hard not to think about Willie Parker when watching Smith. The 232-pounder isn’t nearly as fast as FWP, but like Parker last preseason, he’s making highlight reel runs on every other touch. Smith has 13 touches this preseason. He’s broken a play for over 35 yards on three of them. Jamal Lewis could touch the ball 300 times and not break one over 35 yards.

Three plays don’t make Smith a star, but he’s a great sleeper worth grabbing for your fantasy bench. Pick him up in keeper leagues. Ravens coach Brian Billick recently called Smith the team’s “running back of the future.” With Smith’s contract expiring at the end of 2006, the future may start by mid-season.