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09-14-06, 08:02 PM
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| Moderator "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"  Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 62,447
|  Ready For A Rebound
Ready for a Rebound The studs disappointed in Week 1. If you are worrying about your early-round fantasy picks, you are not alone. Scoreboard operators around the NFL had a quiet afternoon Sunday because of dominant defenses. Courtesy of the always excellent pro-footballreference blog, I learned that it was the lowest scoring week in the NFL since 2000. It was the first week with three shutouts since 1991. There could be a lot of reasons for the scoring downturn. The most likely is that it was completely random. Randomness accounts for more in fantasy football than anyone would like to admit (especially those who making a living from it). The same could be said about life in general, but any more dime-store philosophy with the weekly rankings is going to inspire some serious hate mail. Ah yes, the rankings To watch the video version of Goal Line Stand, go to NBCSports.com. To see weekly stat projections with custom fantasy scoring go check out the season pass - Rotoworld.com's Season Pass Week 2 Quarterbacks QB Notes: Matt Hasselbeck owners should be smiling. Despite not throwing a TD, he is a quarterback who knows exactly where he should throw the ball on each play and is playing at the peak level of his skills. He threw only five incompletions despite a gimpy No. 1 receiver, no starting tight end, and constant pressure from the Detroit defense. With an easy schedule and the addition of Deion Branch (and talk of four wideout sets), he can stay in the mix to be the top fantasy quarterback this season. I''ve watched every Saints game dating back to the preseason, and I''ve yet to see Drew Brees test his arm on a long bomb. Either he''s afraid or he knows he''s not ready. It''s a credit to Brees'' resourcefulness that he can play winning football throwing 20 yards or less, but it won''t help his fantasy stats or Joe Horn''s Charlie Frye is closer to making a difference in fantasy leagues than most people think. Frye outscored Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and 25 other starting quarterbacks in Week 1 because the kid ran for 44 rushing yards. Cleveland''s terrible offensive line won''t make Frye the white Michael Vick, but he''s probably the second-best running QB in the league. If he can just throw for 180-200 yards (where have we heard this before?), he''ll have consistent value. In the end, the optimists were right. Carson Palmer, Brees, Daunte Culpepper, and Chad Pennington were all ready by Week 1 and looked healthy. Staying healthy might be another another matter, but it looks like we can adjust our reasonable expectations for ACL and shoulder surgery recoveries. As if the loss of Deion Branch wasn''t discouraging enough, Tom Brady''s offensive line had major protection problems in the first half against Buffalo. Perhaps Matt Light and Dan Koppen were sluggish after missing most of last year due to injury. Maybe rookie starting RT Ryan O'' Callaghan isn''t ready. If they don''t play better, Brady is bound to get hurt. J.P. Losman, who I''ve beaten up a lot in this space, played a controlled three quarters against New England before a skittish finish. He stood up to the pass rush well. That''s a big step forward from 2005 and good news for Lee Evans and Willis McGahee owners. Let''s see if he can keep it up. I''m remaining patient with Jake Plummer. He''s prone to stinker games, but there''s a good chance he''ll bounce back strongly against the Chiefs. The Broncos will see the game as a must-win and Kansas City is a dead team walking with Damon Huard at quarterback. I wouldn''t hesitate to use Plummer this week. Byron Leftwich quietly played very well against the Cowboys. He improves every season and the receiver group may be better than expected. The return of TE Marcedes Lewis will eventually help. Leftwich probably won''t put up big stats against Pittsburgh, so he''d be an outstanding quarterback to buy low on after Week 2. Dating back to last season, Kurt Warner has thrown for 250 passing yards in nine straight games he''s finished. He wasn''t rank as a top-six quarterback on Rotoworld because he''s likely to get hurt, but he''ll produce like an every-week starter until he goes down. Warner was effective passing while on the run against San Francisco, but it''s scary to watch. This is a guy who hurt himself without getting touched last year. Even the 49ers beat him up pretty well. This week against the Seahawks will be a great test for the entire Cardinals offense. Week 1 Running Backs RB Notes: It''s worth noting that Shaun Alexander has a history with starting slow. He opened with a 73-yard game last year in Washington. He gained less than 60 rushing yards in two of his first three games in 2003 and 2004, and gained less than 40 rushing yards for three straight games to open 2002. I''d only be concerned if he struggles against the Cardinals this week, which is unlikely. Kevin Jones owners should be patient. Of all the running backs who struggled in Week 1, he was the most impressive. In the past, Jones has run too soft for a player with good size. His 35 rushing yards (and 45 receiving) were hard fought and he broke many tackles. I think the Seattle defense will turn out to be among the league''s elite, so his day won''t look so bad in hindsight. His receiving numbers are more important. He had only 109 all of last year, but could be a premier receiving back in Mike Martz''s offense. Jones still put up 13 fantasy points in PPR leagues despite an off-game. That''s why I love receiving backs they are almost slump-proof. I wanted to write this column without gushing about Frank Gore, but it''s impossible. On his first two touchdowns in Week 1, he ran over a player on his own team. Do not get in Frank Gore''s way. On his second touchdown, Gore met two tacklers at the two, including outstanding safety Adrian Wilson, and easily scored. On one second quarter play, Gore was wrapped up by two defenders at the 37-yard line with his forward progress temporarily stopped, then he dragged the pile with extra cornerbacks jumping on Gore like he was the way-too old kid in a game of ''''kill the man with the ball.'''' He fell at the 43. Yes, it was the Cardinals, but fantasy owners should enjoy the ride too. Gore owners in deep leagues should handcuff him with Michael Robinson, not Maurice Hicks. The former Penn State QB is already a bigger part of the offense than Hicks. One player I talked about in the video version of Goal Line Stand is LaMont Jordan. Quietly step away from the ledge, people. Bench him against the Ravens, and then he should be fine. He''s the ultimate buy-low candidate after this week. New York''s beat writers believe Kevan Barlow will have a bigger role in the offense this week. He outplayed Derrick Blaylock in Week 1, so don''t be surprised if Barlow gets 15 or more carries against the Patriots. Mewelde Moore appears to be Chester Taylor''s backup, not Ciatrick Fason. Taylor owners may want to handcuff him to Moore if Minnesota plans on giving Taylor 30 carries a game. It wasn''t a great sign for Edgerrin James that he didn''t have much running room against the 49ers. Arizona tried to run the stretch play too often. He had more success running between the tackles. Still, the game illustrated what a strength of James in fantasy leagues. Even though his yards-per-carry was poor, he touched the ball enough to make up for it. Travis Henry is questionable for the Titans. So is Lendale White. If both players don''t practice this week, Chris Brown will move up the rankings. Week 2 Wide Receivers WR Notes:The acquisition of Deion Branch is curious for a few reasons. One is Bobby Engram. The Seahawks have to keep him on the field. Matt Hasselbeck still looked to Engram as his most reliable threat against Detroit and Engram didn''t disappoint. Coach Mike Holmgren said he''d consider going with four wideouts at a time now, which would be fun to watch. It wouldn''t be great news for Darrell Jackson and Branch. Sometimes I''ll look at a friend''s roster and say, ''''Now that''s a Rotoworld team.'''' It''s filled with players we ranked much higher than their Average Draft Position. Antonio Bryant is on almost every Rotoworld team, and his owners have to be encouraged by his start. Bryant''s garbage-time inflated numbers and his 55-yard touchdown called back by penalty are good signs. Alex Smith''s surprising competence was even better. If Smith can even spell the word average, Bryant will put 1,200 yards on a receiver-poor team. Troy Williamson showed his potential and inexperience on Monday night. While he dropped two passes, including a possible long score, I was very impressed how easily he beat Washington''s Carlos Rogers for much of the night. Perhaps he won''t be a true ''''No. 1'''' receiver who racks up 1,200 yards, but Williamson is head and shoulders above his teammates. He should be owned in all leagues and has a shot to be a useful fantasy WR3/4. I forgot to mention Reggie Williams in Waiver Wired. He''s slowly improved each year as a pro and started the season with a six-catch effort against Dallas. Williams is worth owning in points-per-reception leagues because he''s a classic possession receiver. Ernest Wilford figures to be streakier. If Donte'' Stallworth has another big week, owners may want to think about selling high. I can''t get his inconsistency and poor practice habits while in New Orleans out of my mind. One of the many reasons to love the Cardinals wideouts is that Kurt Warner appears to consciously spread the ball around to keep them happy. Anquan Boldin was not featured in the offense in Week 1 and Larry Fitzgerald was putting up huge numbers. Warner then suddenly targeted Boldin four straight times late in the third quarter, twice when Boldin wasn''t really open. Lee Evans has a great matchup against a Miami defense he burned last year. They struggle preventing big plays, Evans'' speciality. Week 2 Tight Ends
Vernon Davis showed he can make an immediate impact in the 49ers offense. They will get him the ball. I still don''t expect consistent play from the rookie, however. He lost a fumble and short-armed another pass when he felt a hit coming. Todd Heap owners should be concerned he''s already on the injury list. At least he showed last season he could play through minor ailments. Watch him in practice this week to make sure he suits up against Oakland. Ben Troupe was mostly ignored against the Jets, but he has another good matchup in San Diego this week. He''s a decent option. It''s going to be hard to bench Kellen Winslow if he backs up his Week 1 effort. If you drafted him as your backup, think about trading your starter if Winslow backs up his performance this week. Joe Jurevicius'' injury opens up the middle of the field for him. Chris Cooley makes for a great buy-low candidate, especially if he struggles again this week. Week 2 Kickers Week 2 Team Defense | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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