"Start Your Waivers"

[Hache Man]

Start Your Waivers

Now that your team is drafted, it’s time to start improving it. Each Tuesday, Waiver Wired will take a look around the NFL for players who can help your fantasy team. I’ll tell you about the new starters who will help right away, and the sleepers to stash on your bench. We will also post a video version of Wired at noon on NBCSports.com every Tuesday. Just click on the video link in the upper left. Quick tip with all three of our weekly videos: Focus on Tiffany, not Rick Cordella and I.

One of the biggest mistakes new fantasy football players make is ignoring the waiver wire. Spend time each week attempting to improve depth of your bench. Keep upgrading your reserves, and your team will be prepared for injuries and able to make advantageous trades.

I could draft a solid 2006 fantasy football squad only taking players who were picked up off the waiver wire in 2005. Here’s how my team of 2005 Waiver Wired All-Stars might look.

QB: Eli Manning, Kurt Warner
RB: Willie Parker, Chester Taylor, Frank Gore, Samkon Gado
WR: Joey Galloway, Reggie Brown, Terry Glenn, Roddy White, Ernest Wilford
TE: Ben Watson, Jerramy Stevens
K: Neil Rackers
DEF: Bengals

Many of the stars of the 2006 season are still out there, unowned and lonely on the waiver wire. Now let’s try to find them.

Running Back

There are more high-upside running backs than usual on the waiver wire heading into the season. Make no mistake: This is the best time of year to find value for free. Owners don’t adjust their preconceptions about the 2006 season fast enough. It’s the same logic that drives a common betting maxim: Bet big early in the season, then slowly taper off heading towards playoffs.

Most bettors do the opposite despite the betting lines becoming more precise and harder to beat as the season wears on. The same principle exists in fantasy football. The more information (and stats) that accumulate, the harder it is to beat your opponents (and the waiver wire) by unearthing gems. More useful players are available on waiver wires right now than at any point during the season. Don’t be afraid to grab a couple players from this list, especially at running back, because they might not be available next week.

Jerious Norwood, Falcons

Jerious Norwood has a better opportunity to gain 1,000 yards than any rookie running outside of the big four: Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, and LenDale White. Pick Norwood up if at all possible.

Opportunity does not always equal production of course. Just look back at some members of last year’s rookie running back class (Eric Shelton, J.J. Arrington) for proof. Norwood put up shaky numbers when he played top-notch competition in college, which is cause for concern. Unlike Shelton and Arrington, however, Norwood excelled in his rookie preseason. He played well enough for Atlanta to trade T.J. Duckett with confidence. Norwood has a few other things working in his favor.

Atlanta’s running scheme is among the best in the league. Warrick Dunn was considered to be on the downside of his career before they installed their Denver-influenced zone blocking scheme in Atlanta. Dunn had a career 4.07 yards-per-carry average going into 2004, but has averaged over 4.6 yards over the last two seasons.

Dunn is 31 years old and is coming off back-to-back career highs in carries. He’s never carried the ball 300 times in a season. I know he’s a tough player, but he’s already defied the aging process. Do you really want to bet on an aging 180-pound back to stay healthy three straight years? Dunn is near the top of any list of players likely to break down physically this season.

Norwood has no competition. This isn’t hyperbole. There aren’t any other tailbacks on Atlanta’s roster except Dunn. They have an undrafted free agent Marlion Jackson on the practice squad and would surely use talented FB Justin Griffith in the running game more. But Norwood would be the man if Dunn goes down. He’s likely to get 125 touches regardless. He has the makings of a quality reserve.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Wali Lundy, Texans

By now, most people reading this will have heard the story of Wali “Triple” Lundy and his fast rise to the starting running back job in Houston. He’s a Week 1 starting running back, so he’s a no-brainer pickup in all leagues if available.

I like the progress Houston’s running game showed in the preseason. Lundy ran hard. He didn’t always hit the right hole, but he showed better yards-after-contact ability than his reputation would indicate. Lundy is no sure bet for stardom, though. He was outplayed while at Virginia by teammate Alvin Pearman, who hasn’t exactly set the NFL on fire. Texans coach Gary Kubiak knows he shouldn’t expect more than 200 carries from a rookie sixth-round pick, and that’s why he signed …

Ron Dayne, Texans

Kubiak threw a bone to all the fantasy owners who drafted Dayne during the summer due to some high rankings (ahem).

Speaking about Dayne Sunday, Kubiak said, ''He gives us a real bruiser. He can pound the ball. He's got more size than our other two. Because we're familiar with him, he can step right into our offense on Tuesday and know exactly what we're doing. At this point that's a tremendous advantage for us.''

This should worry all Wali Lundy owners. Dayne isn’t a particularly effective short-yardage runner, but Kubiak thinks he is. While he will start the season third on the depth chart, Dayne, Lundy, and Vernand Morency will probably all get turns in the spotlight. That makes Dayne worth owning as a RB5 or RB6 in most 12-team leagues. Aaron Gleeman called it in Monday’s Daily Dose: Kubiak might turn out to be as frustrating for fantasy leaguers as his mentor, Mike Shanahan.

Musa Smith, Ravens

Musa Smith is the team’s “running back of the future” according to Ravens coach Brian Billick. Perhaps this is just more bluster from a coach who could power a blimp with hot air. Or perhaps Billick is stating the obvious for anyone who watched the preseason. Jamal Lewis and Mike Anderson can no longer break the kind of big plays that Smith, all 232 pounds of him, did throughout August.

I suspect Smith would start over Anderson if Lewis gets hurt this season. It’s also possible that Lewis could lose his job to his performance, just like in 2005. Billick is on the hot seat and seems less likely to cave to his players’ egos at the cost of winning games. Smith might be the best option on his roster and is worth stashing in 12-team leagues to find out.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Travis Henry, Titans

CBS.Sportsline.com’s fantasy news broke a story last week claiming Henry would be Tennessee’s Week 1 starter. This gibed with a similar report in Sports Illustrated’s fantasy section earlier in August. The moral of the story - don’t trust fantasy outlets to break news.

It looks like Chris Brown will start for Tennessee in Week 1, but Henry will have a big role. The Titans will probably use him in short-yardage situations. A straight split of carries with Brown, with LenDale White occasionally sprinkled in early in the season, wouldn’t surprise. While that means Henry isn’t worth starting in fantasy leagues, he should be picked off the wire.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Cedric Cobbs, Broncos

Mike Shanahan isn’t afraid to shake up his running back depth chart. That makes Cobbs, currently third on the list, worth stashing in most leagues. Cobbs was average in training camp practice, but excelled during preseason games, allowing Shanahan to cut Ron Dayne. Denver seems set on using Tatum Bell as a third-down change-of-pace back, so Cobbs would likely be the goal-line back and primary ball carrier if Mike Bell falters early in the season.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

LaBrandon Toefield, Jaguars

It appears Toefield, not Maurice Drew, will enter the season as Fred Taylor’s primary backup. We hear that fullback Derrick Wimbush may actually get the short-yardage carries, putting him on the fantasy radar. It’s a trick situation, but Toefield is worth a look because of Taylor’s injury history.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Quarterbacks

QB: Kerry Collins, Titans QB

My first reaction to the Kerry Collins signing in Tennessee was that the coaching staff must really think poorly of Billy Volek. They are confident that Collins, with one week of practice, will be better in Norm Chow’s system than Volek was after 17 months.

I don’t doubt Collins is a better quarterback, but he isn’t likely to be a fantasy starter again. Tennessee’s offensive line is a major question mark. When Tennessee trades Volek, which I expect sooner than later, this could all blow up in coach Jeff Fisher’s face. If Collins pulls a hamstring or mistakenly blinds himself while applying Propecia, the Vince Young era could start sooner than anyone wants.

All that said, Collins is worth owning in most leagues as a QB2/3. With Brandon Jones healthy again, Tennessee has a decent group of wideouts and three tight ends who can catch the ball. Tennessee is usually trailing in the second half of games, which means they will throw the ball. The schedule sets up well, especially early (Jets, @ Chargers, @ Dolphins). I’d rather own Collins than Brad Johnson, Charlie Frye, Mark Brunell, and Phillip Rivers right now. If get gets hot early, deal him.

Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues

Chris Simms, Bucs

Simms is available in over one-third of the fantasy leagues out there. He has a tough schedule on paper, but I still expect above-average QB2 numbers from the second-year starter.

Coach Jon Gruden has always managed to scrape a consistent passing game out of spare parts in Tampa, but he finally has a collection of talented pass-catchers. Healthy versions of Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway make a dynamic starting duo. The receiver depth behind them is improved. Michael Pittman is the best third-down back in football and tight end Alex Smith should build on a solid rookie season. Most importantly, Tampa’s aggressive youth movement at offensive line should pay dividends by the end of the season. The entire offense is underrated right now.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Philip Rivers, Chargers
Rivers is set up for a fast start. His first two games are against the Raiders and Titans, two teams with young and questionable defensive backfields. Don’t expect Rivers to light it up, but he’s worth owning in all leagues that start two quarterbacks, and could have his highest trade value of the season after Week 2.

Recommendation: Worth in a look in 12-team leagues

Wide Receivers

Doug Gabriel, Patriots

Gabriel was near the top of Rotoworld’s sleeper list before he was traded to New England. He’s a safer pick now. 6’5 with good deep speed, Gabriel will be the best big receiver Bill Belichick has coached in New England. That’s damning Gabriel with faint praise: Donald Hayes and J.J. Stokes are practically the only other ones.

Combining experience and talent, Gabriel would my favorite to lead New England wideouts in receiving if Deion Branch doesn’t return to the team this season. That’s a huge if. The most likely outcome for Branch is still a return to the Patriots because they hold his rights and probably aren’t eager to deal him. Even if Branch doesn’t come back, it’s easy to imagine no New England wideout topping 900 yards. That was the case in 2003 and 2004, and the team won the Super Bowl both years.

Gabriel will battle Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown, and eventually Chad Jackson for playing time, but will probably start sooner than later. While he could score 5-7 times, I wouldn’t expect him to post better stats than David Givens used to. That makes him a useful fantasy reserve.

Recommendation: Worth owning in all leagues

Ronald Curry, Raiders

Ronald Curry was the biggest reason why Oakland felt they could trade Gabriel. It’s a gamble. Curry was outplaying Jerry Porter as a starter in 2004 when he ruptured his Achilles’ tendon. He returned to play early in 2005, but he tore the Achilles again. Curry is known as one of the best athletes in the NFL, but it’s a lot to ask for him to go right back in the starting lineup after barely practicing the last two years. Look for Curry and Jerry Porter to share snaps at the beginning of the season. Consistent production can’t be expected, but he’s worth a roster spot because of his upside in most leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Marty Booker, Dolphins

The arrival of Daunte Culpepper has sparked a lot of optimism about Miami’s offense. For whatever reason, the high hopes haven’t leaked over to one of Culpepper’s starting wideouts, Marty Booker. Booker showed surprising vertical ability in 2005, averaging over 17 yards-per-catch. He was a consistent 1,000-yard receiver earlier in his career, but has been limited by poor quarterbacks the last three seasons. He shouldn’t have that problem again. He could be a sneak veteran to add for the end of your bench.

Recommendation: Worth Owning in All Leagues

Cedrick Wilson, Steelers

This is a Rocco DeMaro special. The Pittsburgh native correctly points out that Wilson gets ignored for a veteran starter on a team with an ascending young quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger will miss Week 1, but he’s still primed for a breakout year statistically if the Steelers pass more. Someone has to catch his passes and the Steelers have very inexperienced depth behind Wilson. The former 49er had two games over 90 yards in the playoffs last season and should bust out for the occasional big game again this year. He’s worth a WR5/6 spot in most formats.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Vincent Jackson, Chargers

I have a feeling Jackson is going to be a Waiver Wired favorite this season. The second-year player has a profile that screams “red-zone specialist.” He will compete with Eric Parker for snaps to start the season, but San Diego would love for Jackson to win the starting job during the year. He’s a fun deep league pick.

Recommendation: Worth a look in Deep Leagues

Marques Colston, Saints

The Saints have holes on their roster the size of Johnathan Sullivan. There’s no other way to explain a rookie seventh-round pick from Hofstra starting at wide receiver. Not only that, Colston is converting to the position after playing tight end in college. We’re intrigued by his size and practice reports, but wouldn’t recommend touching him in re-draft fantasy leagues. Dynasty leaguers, however, should pick him up and see what happens.

Recommendation: Worth owning in dynasty leagues

Tight Ends

Alex Smith, Bucs TE

Despite Rotoworld’s best efforts, Smith remains unowned in many 12-team leagues. He’s our eleventh-ranked tight end heading into the season and has a great chance to join Chris Cooley, Jason Witten, and many other young tight ends who took a major statistical leap in their second season.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Ben Troupe, Titans TE

With Erron Kinney and David Givens ailing, Troupe could be Kerry Collins’ second best receiving option to open the season. He’s similar in profile to Ben Watson, who is undoubtedly owned in your league.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Tony Scheffler, Broncos & Leonard Pope, Cardinals

I group these two players together because they are both rookies and rookie tight ends aren’t likely to help your fantasy team. They are both starters, however, on teams with prolific passing attacks. I don’t expect consistent production from either in re-draft leagues, but they are fantastic keeper league pickups who could grow in 2007. Scheffler especially impressed in the preseason and is being groomed to take over Shannon Sharpe’s old role in the offense.

Recommendation: Worth owning in keeper/dynasty leagues

Bo Scaife, Titans

Bo Scaife only caught two less passes (37) as a rookie than Heath Miller in 2005. Miller is rightly ranked in the top ten tight ends entering this season, while Scaife is an unknown. There are a few reasons for that.

1) He averaged a miniscule 7.4 yards-per-catch average, which is somewhere between Ike Hilliard and Chris Simms’ average catching his own passes that were batted at the line of scrimmage.
2) He’s the third tight on his own team behind Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe.
3) His name is Bo Scaife.

Bo can’t do anything about number three, but he has the athleticism to improve number one and Erron Kinney’s injury takes care of number two. If you are looking for an injury fill-in or backup TE in upcoming weeks, you could do a lot worse.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues