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| Moderator "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 62,453
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The First Batch of Rankings Even Charlie Batch can’t dull the excitement of opening night. Pittsburgh’s sudden starting quarterback will change the complexion of the game, however. Batch has averaged only eleven passes per season since 2002, and coach Bill Cowher would be happy to keep him under that number Thursday. Expect to see a lot of Fast Willie Parker, Verron Haynes, and Steelers punter Chris Gardocki. I’ll be paying special attention to Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown. If Rotoworld’s fourth ranked running back struggles in 2006, my friends will probably stop talking to me. Brown is ranked seventh in Rotoworld’s Week 1 rankings below. For first-time readers of this column, Goal Line Stand will rank every possible starter in fantasy leagues by position each Thursday. Just like with Tuesday’s Waiver Wired, an accompanying video for Stand will be posted on NBCSports.com. Check back this weekend for our final update to the Goal Line Stand rankings once the week of practices are over. Week 1 Starting Quarterbacks Notes: It’d be a major upset if Kerry Collins didn’t start for the Titans this weekend. Because of the uncertainty, I have him ranked slightly lower than usual. Keep in mind that he’s just learning a new system, and Vince Young could play in special packages in short-yardage situations. … Tom Brady will have a hard time repeating as yardage champ this season. Look for New England to revert back to a short passing attack because the team doesn’t have the talent to go deep. The Patriots were already making the transition to a run-first team this off-season before Deion Branch’s holdout. They are loaded at running back, tight end, and on the offensive line. Look for a slow pace of play to help keep New England’s defense off the field. Brady is a safe bet for 3,500 yards, but 4,000 will be tough to repeat. I look for quarterbacks who could be throwing a lot of garbage-time passes. Kurt Warner was the king of this last season. The Cardinals inevitably trailed in the second half of most games and Warner racked up huge numbers trying to catch up. Two candidates to be garbagemen heroes this season are Drew Brees and Aaron Brooks. The New Orleans defense isn’t going to stop anyone. They’ve signed every aging linebacker this side of Pat Swilling since the start of July. Oakland’s defense has raw talent, but has shown no cohesiveness under coordinator Rob Ryan. Brooks could be playing a lot of catch-up. He’s a strong play this week facing the perennially weak Chargers secondary. Week 1 Running Backs Notes: Be careful about adjusting too much for opponents this early in the season. Looking at the matchups is a great tiebreaker to help decide between two similar players, but you don’t want to over-react based on conventional wisdom. We have no idea what 2006 defenses will look like. At this time a year ago, the Patriots defense was feared by all and the Bears were a middle-of-the-pack team. Wait a few weeks for trends to evolve before benching your studs because they have a tough opponent – on paper. Thomas Jones will get the start for the Bears. If you own him, this is a good week to use him as a flex position player or RB2 on thin teams. Green Bay’s interior line looks weak and Cedric Benson will probably be used sparingly after missing the preseason. … ESPN’s John Clayton reported that Clinton Portis is expected to play on Monday Night Football. While he will move up our rankings if he practices this week, fantasy owners with options should consider benching him for his first game back. There’s no guarantee he will be able to finish the game. Minnesota’s defensive line also stood out in the preseason. Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James are healthy and are perfect fits for the team’s new Tampa 2 defense. Pat Williams continues his late-career renaissance and remains one of the best defensive tackles in football. While they aren’t terribly deep, Minnesota’s defensive line could be the best in football. DeShaun Foster is an inconsistent runner who often racks up big games against lesser opponents, but struggles otherwise. His two best games of 2005 were against Atlanta, so Carolina will test their rush defense early and often. I don’t expect DeAngelo Williams to get the ball that much. … Both Bells from Denver could be worth starting as flex players. The artificial surface should help Tatum especially, and Denver could run the ball enough for both players to be productive against a lackluster Rams defense. Week 1 Wide Receivers Notes: Keep an eye on Joe Horn this week. With no other legitimate wide receivers in New Orleans, Horn has a chance for a major comeback season. He has a difficult Week 1 matchup against Browns cornerback Leigh Bodden. As Chad Johnson, Football Outsiders, and ESPN’s KC Joyner know, Bodden is one of the best players in the NFL no one knows about. Horn should be targeted often enough to have a solid day. Alvis Whitted will start at wide receiver for the Raiders opposite Randy Moss. He’s not the reason Oakland traded Doug Gabriel, but he’s part of a deep receiver group. I expect Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry to rotate in with the first team. Until the situation shakes out, don’t count on consistent fantasy production from any of them. … A similar scenario is playing out in Minnesota. Troy Williamson is not ready to be a No. 1 receiver, so the team will rotate him, Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson, and Todd Pinkston. Williamson is worth a fantasy roster spot, but that’s about it. … A couple crusty veterans make for sneaky plays this week. Amani Toomer could benefit if the Giants are playing catch-up Sunday night against the Colts. Marty Booker will try to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s secondary deep. Darrell Jackson reportedly looked very good in practice Wednesday. It’s possible that he skipped a lot of training camp because of a lingering contract dispute with the team. That’s good news for his fantasy owners; perhaps his knee won’t be as big a concern this year. If he’s announced as a starter, I’ll move Jackson up the rankings. Another thing to watch in Seattle is how the team divides snaps between Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, and D.J. Hackett. I’ve left other star receivers battling injuries high in the rankings. Steve Smith’s hamstring is worth watching closely, but ESPN says he’s likely to play. Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall is a self-hyped superstar who would top our list of overrated defensive players. Opposing teams show no fear attacking Hall. Looking to keep his name in the headlines, Hall talked trash on Smith in the papers this week. Not a good idea. … Terrell Owens isn’t on the injury report, so he should be in your lineup. Its possible T.O. won’t start, but he won’t be sitting behind Patrick Crayton (or Sam Hurd) for long. Bill Parcells wants to win and Owens will want to make a big opening statement as a Cowboy. Week 1 Tight Ends Notes: Ben Watson will benefit from Deion Branch’s absence. It’s hard to imagine him not catching at least four passes a game. Only in his third year, Watson knows the team’s system much better than new wideouts Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel. … Ben Troupe has a great chance to step up his numbers this week with Erron Kinney out and David Givens questionable. … Jim Kleinsasser and Jermaine Wiggins may both start at tight end for Minnesota. Wiggins’ numbers could suffer because of it, but Vikings coach Brad Childress is accustomed to using two tight ends in the passing game extensively. Week 1 Kickers Notes: Mike Vanderjagt is questionable for Week 1. He practiced Wednesday, so he should probably get the start. Until we know for sure, there is no sense putting him in your fantasy lineup. Week 1 Team Defense Season Predictions Because I have nowhere else to post them, here are my predicted finishes for each division this season. Enjoy Week 1 and check back Saturday for updates to the rankings. AFC East 1. New England 2. Miami 3. New York 4. Buffalo AFC North 1. Cincinnati 2. Pittsburgh 3. Cleveland 4. Baltimore AFC South 1. Indianapolis 2. Jacksonville 3. Houston 4. Tennessee AFC West 1. Chargers 2. Broncos 3. Raiders 4. Chiefs Wild Cards: Broncos, Steelers AFC Championship: Patriots over Bengals (of course) NFC East 1. Cowboys 2. Eagles 3. Giants 4. Redskins NFC North 1. Bears 2. Vikings 3. Lions 4. Packers NFC South 1. Bucs 2. Panthers 3. Falcons 4. Saints NFC West 1. Seahawks 2. Cardinals 3. Rams 4. 49ers Wild Cards: Panthers, Eagles NFC Championship: Seahawks over Cowboys Super Bowl XLI Seahawks over Patriots |
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