Tiers Of Heaven: 2006 Rankings

[Hache Man]

Tiers of Heaven: 2006 Rankings
As a kid, the last day of school before summer was my favorite day of the year. It wasn’t just because of the three months of imminent freedom. It was the sweet anticipation, building for weeks, of the blessed moment the 2:00 PM bell rang. On the eve of the big day, I could hardly sleep.

Now pretending to be an adult, only the time of year has changed. Late August, when anticipation for the NFL season reaches a frenzied peak, is the best time of year. Welcome to draft season at Rotoworld. Over the next three weeks, owners will scheme, strategize, and plot the course that will decide their 2006 fantasy football season.

When the big day arrives, every owner wants a cheat sheet to reference. If you haven’t purchased our online draft guide, we humbly submit our annual “Tiers of Heaven” column below for printout usage.

RotoWorld’s tiering system is designed to help make the toughest decisions on draft day. I’ve ranked every draftable player by position and grouped them in “tiers” or similar value. Most owners can pick between Kevin Jones and Julius Jones. It becomes much tougher to decide whether to pick your favorite Jones or a wide receiver like Torry Holt.

Tiering can help establish a loose strategy before the draft. Then, as the draft goes to hell, the tiers will help maximize value as the rounds go by.

Let’s say it’s the sixth round. Tight end Todd Heap and wide receiver Donald Driver are the top two players available. You might notice that Driver is the only wideout in his tier still available. That means we see a big drop-off in receiver value once Driver is off the board. Heap is a great value in round six, but Alge Crumpler and Chris Cooley, both in his tier, are also still available. With three solid tight ends still on the board, it’s best to draft Driver, and then hope a tight end falls to round seven.

Before we get to the rankings, remember to only use this tool as a loose guide. If there is a player you simply cannot resist grabbing early, just take him. The only way to kill the delirium of draft week is to pick a team you don’t like. After all, draft season only comes once a year.

Quarterbacks

Other than Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Tom Brady, starting fantasy quarterback wasn’t a difference-making position in 2005. After the big three, there was a huge group of nearly identical options. Most owners had one.

The crowded middle class is one reason why there’s no reason to reach for a quarterback early. With 32 NFL teams and only 10-14 teams per fantasy league, position scarcity is not a problem. RotoWorld looks for value anywhere we can find it, but it’s rarely in the top 40 picks for quarterbacks. There are too many quality mid-round options. Solid backups are often available after round 10. The trick is picking the right ones. Here’s how we’re approaching this year’s crop.

QB Tier One – Peyton Manning

Manning is still the class of his position and the safest bet for 4,000 yards and 25 or more touchdowns. It would help his stats if the Colts weren’t so dominant this season, forcing him to throw more in the second halves of games. Playing in late December would be nice too. Peyton will require a top 15 pick in most drafts, which is too early for me. Still, this is a decent year to buy relatively low. The loss of Edgerrin James could force the team to pass more. He’s slipped to the third round of some industry drafts and is a bargain there.

QB Tier Two – Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb

These are every-week fantasy starters. Palmer would be the top overall QB if healthy, but his status for Week 1 and ability to stay healthy remains uncertain at best. His skills could decline for this season, but he is unlikely to disappoint as a fourth-round pick with the weapons in Cincinnati. Hasselbeck plays in a steady system with a great schedule. Brady’s receivers are weaker, but he’s in a good system and remains a safe mid-round pick. He might be overvalued coming off a career year. Bulger, who may fall out of the top 65 picks, represents the best opportunity for monster points at a cheap price. I like his chances to increase touchdowns with better protection and a running game. He will lose yardage. McNabb needs to run again to be an elite QB1. There is a big drop-off after this group, so a pick in the middle rounds (5-6) is appropriate.

QB Tier Three – Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Jake Plummer, Kurt Warner, Drew Bledsoe, Ben Roethlisberger

Vick has a huge head start on his competition because of his running skill. He is falling deep into drafts this season and is one our favorite mid-to-late round targets. Just pair him with a steady QB2. Eli will throw for touchdowns but he isn’t accurate, which creates inconsistent production.

The rest of the quarterbacks could be weekly starters, but they have a wart. Warner, Bledsoe and Leftwich are unlikely to stay upright for 16 games. Plummer and Roethlisberger play for coaches who don’t air it out. There are signs in both cases, however, that their pass attempts will increase. Along with Vick, they are great late QB1s to pair with another quality option.

If you miss out on a quarterback in the top two tiers, grab one from this group quickly. Taking two should yield at least one stud and a strong quarterback position without burning an early draft pick.

QB Tier Four - Aaron Brooks, Daunte Culpepper, Byron Leftwich, Jake Delhomme, Chris Simms

I consider these quarterbacks high upside backups. Brooks has put up numbers, but is playing in a 1994 offense and doesn’t have great job security. Culpepper is likely to be overrated because of his past numbers, and he won’t run much. Leftwich has improved every season, but the Jaguars offense isn’t explosive. Simms is my favorite QB2 for value because of Jon Gruden’s system. I expect over 3,500 yards easy. He will probably be available in the late rounds of most drafts.

QB Tier Five – Brett Favre, David Carr, Drew Brees, Jon Kitna, Trent Green, Jon Kitna, Steve McNair

Part of the reward for drafting a quarterback early is the patience it affords finding a backup. If you take a quarterback in the top two tiers, it’s fine to wait until late in the draft to take his backup. Among this group are big names that could be overvalued. Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Trent Green qualify, largely because of the teams around them. Green is set up for a steep decline after the loss of Dick Vermeil and two starting tackles.

Carr showed great progress before a miserable 2005. Gary Kubiak, a new coach with a track record with mobile quarterbacks, could straighten him out. Jon Kitna is likely to throw a lot of interceptions, but the power of Mike Martz isn’t worth questioning. These are the last QB2s I’m confident in.

QB Tier Six – Philip Rivers, Brad Johnson, Mark Brunell, Charlie Frye, Billy Volek, Chad Pennington

These six players would be useful as injury replacements, but we wouldn’t draft them in 12 by 15 leagues. They are excellent QB3s in leagues that use two starring quarterbacks or in leagues with expanded rosters. Johnson, Brunell, Volek, and Pennington seem unlikely to start 16 games. Charlie Frye’s offensive line will do him in. Rivers has the most upside here, but is a first-year starter.

QB Tier Seven – Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, Brian Griese, Andrew Walter, Patrick Ramsey, Kelly Holcomb, Matt Leinart, David Garrard, Gus Frerotte, Matt Schaub

Grossman hasn’t helped his job security with a weak preseason. Brian Griese could take over during the season. J.P. Losman is likely to start in Week 1 for Buffalo, but is inconsistent at best. Alex Smith could make huge progress and still not be worth drafting. Walter, Leinart, Garrard, and Schaub are among the best backup quarterbacks who are most likely to get a few starts in the regular season. In traditional league formats, this tier isn’t worth drafting.

Running Back

The first-round picks get all the attention, but running back is a position in fantasy football that requires great depth. Expect injuries. Expect your third and fourth running back (RB3 and RB4) to play significant roles in a run to the championship. With only 32 starting running backs, and at least 24 starting positions in fantasy football, they will come at a premium early in drafts. The idea is to build up a deep bench that can withstand the potholes that the regular season brings. Starting running backs are also easy to trade if you have “too many.”

There was a 29% drop in 1,250-yard rushing season in the last two years than the two years prior. Whether that was due to randomness, injuries, or the proliferation of running back by committees, it seems that there are fewer bulletproof options. It brings up an interesting question in the second round of most drafts which I’ll address later. In short, I’d rather have one of the top elite wide receivers at the end of round two than the majority of tier three running backs.

RB Tier One – LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander

Rarely has the No. 3 pick looked so good. Everyone will pick a favorite, but each member of the holy trinity is a safe bet for huge yardage and 15+ touchdowns. Tomlinson has the best combination of track record, versatility, and age so he’s our number one pick. I am worried about the effect Herm Edwards and the loss of two starting tackles, and a fullback will have on Larry Johnson. He can’t keep up the same workload as the second half of last season without burning out. In non-PPR leagues, I’d think about taking Alexander ahead of Johnson despite Alexander’s age and new contract.

RB Tier Two – Ronnie Brown, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, LaMont Jordan, Carnell Williams, Tiki Barber, Steven Jackson

We’d rather draft anyone on this list before a wide receiver or quarterback. Anyone that slips to the second round is a steal. Portis was the safest pick until his recent shoulder injury. It’s a problem dating back to last season and could affect his workload. I dropped him two spots for now. A decline can be expected for James, but the Cardinals will still feed him the ball, especially in the passing game. The receiving numbers will help make up for his sinking yards-per-carry.

Ronnie Brown is a special talent who has the best chance of this group to be the top overall fantasy player. He has a complete game, but Miami’s offensive line is a concern. Jordan and Cadillac get the edge over Barber because Tiki is a smallish 30-year-old player coming off back-to-back career highs in touches. I’ve taken heat for ranking Barber so “low”, but he was a second round pick the last two seasons when he had much less mileage. This ranking could be overvaluing him with Brandon Jacobs ready to steal touchdowns. Jackson has the tools and opportunity to make a big leap. We worry about his tendency to miss time with minor injuries and show inconsistent effort, but maturity may solve those problems.

RB Tier Three – Rudi Johnson, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker

These players are all solid values as RB2s, but they each have a question mark. Johnson contributes nothing in the passing game, significant on a team that passes so much. Backup Chris Perry’s injuries help his value though. Westbrook and Julius Jones are explosive but are injury risks. Westbrook dropped two spots because of his recent foot injury. McGahee plays on a terrible offense but will touch the ball 400 times and has shown improved explosiveness this preseason.

Taylor hasn’t carried the load before, but will have every opportunity to put up Brian Westbrook-like numbers in the passing game to go with 250-300 carries. He could slip to the end of round three or even four because of his name and is a nice value pick. Kevin Jones is the centerpiece of the new Lions offense, and will have every chance to bounce back from a sophomore slump. Willie Parker is still being underrated as a late third round pick. He is an ascending young running back for the Steelers, one of the best spots in football.

You are doing well at running back if you draft two players from the above three tiers. I believe the hardest decision in drafts this season involves what to do in the second round. The top six wide receivers this season are so consistent that they warrant serious consideration over any player in this tier. A lot depends on league format and scoring system. Do receivers usually fall or will a running back? Some leagues naturally favor wide receivers. If you are confident that Taylor, Parker, or one of the Jones’ is more likely to slip to round three than T.O. or Torry Holt, then taking a receiver ahead of this tier is a good idea.

RB Tier Four – Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, Reuben Droughns, Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon, Thomas Jones, Domanick Davis, Jamal Lewis, Joseph Addai, DeShaun Foster, Fred Taylor

These early-to-mid-round RB3 types can make or break your season. They are reaches in round two and perhaps half will be busts. All except Lewis and Droughns are sharing the football. Lewis is battling a hip injury and hasn’t been the same physically since 2003. His latest injury is a red flag. Domanick Davis’ knee isn’t close to healthy and it appears he would be lucky to play 12-14 games. Gore and Addai are terrific values. Gore has proven himself at the pro level and will have the starting job to himself in San Francisco. His injury history is the only reason he’s not ranked higher. Addai is likely to play more than Dominic Rhodes this season for the powerful Colts offense.

Taylor and Foster will have to share carries with younger teammates. Both are reasonably productive when healthy, which isn’t often. Get a player you want here, but don’t reach when there are quality wideouts on the board. Enough solid running backs from this group will fall into the middle rounds.

RB Tier Five – Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, Chris Brown, Deuce McAllister, DeAngelo Williams, LenDale White, Cedric Benson, Ahman Green, Greg Jones, Dominic Rhodes, Laurence Maroney, Kevan Barlow

These are your high upside mid-round RB3s and RB4s. The flying Bells from Denver look like boom-or-bust cases on the surface, but a close split in carries is likely, just like last season with Mike Anderson and Tatum. That led to unsatisfied fantasy owners. Based on the preseason, Mike has the better chance to go for 1,200 yards and ten scores because he’s a tougher player. He’s also an undrafted rookie, so he’s a wild card. Chris Brown and Deuce McAllister both have injury concerns and have younger teammates who will steal carries. Deuce is coming off a torn ACL and looks overrated because of his name.

Williams and Benson are guaranteed roles, but have little chance to earn 300 carries because of talented veteran teammates. Benson looks overrated by most fantasy footballers.

Maroney and Greg Jones are two talented young backs that will get carries, but probably need an injury to be fantasy starters. Jones is a good value pick according to his ADP. Ahman Green is the likely Week 1 starter in Green Bay, but hasn’t played in a game in ten months and is coming off a very serious injury and was breaking down before it occurred. There is no guarantee he’ll ever be the same. Barlow is the likely starter in New York, but he should split carries. He hasn’t been effective for two straight years.

If you only have two players from the tiers above, try to grab at least one here as a RB3. They will cost a premium mid-round pick despite shaky, but in most cases they are only an injury away from being a fantasy starter.

RB Tier Six - Marion Barber, Samkon Gado, Ryan Moats, Brandon Jacobs, Mewelde Moore, Chris Perry, Duce Staley, Michael Pittman, T.J. Duckett, Musa Smith, Mike Anderson, Ladell Betts, Ron Dayne

Make sure to build depth at running back. Consider a quality RB4 very valuable in leagues that allow a flex position player. No matter the format, you want a backup running back or two with explosive potential. Barber, Gado, and Moats are all backing up runners with injury concerns. Ladell Betts will be Washington’s starter until Clinton Portis is healthy. All four have solid track records, so they are among the most valuable “handcuffs” to attach to the team’s starter. Moore has sparkled when given the chance to play, but is fighting Ciatrick Fason for carries.

Jacobs is a must-handcuff for Tiki Barber owners. He could be valuable on his own in touchdown-heavy leagues. Perry would be ranked higher if not for his injuries. If he is put on the PUP list to start the year, he’ll be moved down. T.J. Duckett is now stuck in New York following the Barlow trade. Musa Smith is a fun sleeper who could take over as Baltimore’s starter if Jamal Lewis gets hurt. Staley hopes to take over Jerome Bettis’ role, but has been unimpressive in Steelers camp. Dayne hasn’t enjoyed a good training camp, but he’ll probably find his way to a few starts due to injury or performance of the Bells.

Most of these players should last until round nine. They have extra value if paired with the team’s starter, but don’t reach ahead of your starting wide receivers or quarterback to draft them. A few are likely to slip to the end of drafts.

RB Tier Seven – Najeh Davenport, Verron Haynes, Curtis Martin, Wali Lundy, Vernand Morency, Michael Turner, Travis Henry, Jerious Norwood, Ciatrick Fason, Maurice Drew, Michael Bennett, Maurice Morris, Brian Calhoun, J.J. Arrington, Maurice Hicks, Adrian Peterson

These are fun fliers and deep sleepers. They are roster-worthy in most leagues, especially deep ones. This list changes daily. Someone has to carry the ball in Houston and currently a split between Lundy and Morency looks like the most likely Week 1 combo. I’m not sure how or if Antowain Smith will fit in. It’s depressing to see Curtis Martin sandwiched between Verron Haynes and Wali Lundy, but he may not contribute anything this season.

Turner, Bennett, Morris, Calhoun, Norwood, and Peterson mostly have value if paired with their starting running back. Haynes could be valuable in a goal line role for Pittsburgh. Najeh Davenport could be Green Bay’s Week 1 starter or be cut next week, which nicely encapsulates his career.

Wide Receiver

The emergence of Arizona’s young receivers, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, make a crowded top tier of WR1 receivers. I see seven wideouts standing out from the pack, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t make the cut. One decision to make before draft day, as I discussed above, is how you value these receivers versus third tier running backs. In most cases, the top tier of receivers will be taken in the second round of most drafts. My cut-off is around Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, and Brian Westbrook. That means unless I’m drafting at the very top of round two, I’m likely to take a receiver in round two. Boldin and Moss could slip to round three, but don’t expect it.

WR Tier One – Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss

When Randy Moss is at the end of a tier, it’s not a long journey to the top. Holt is the closest to a no-risk pick. Yes, the offense is changing, but he’s an elite receiver in his prime with a good quarterback. 1,300 yards is nearly guaranteed. Johnson has never scored more than ten touchdowns, but is a safe bet for big yardage. Anquan Boldin may have the best value in points-per-reception leagues. He’s my favorite to lead the league in receptions.

I am not yet worried about T.O. and his hamstring. His transition to a non-West Coast offense is more of a concern, as is Bill Parcells’ preference to run with the lead. Owens is still a safe bet for double-digit touchdowns, which is rare. Expect a small step back from Steve Smith after his otherworldly 2005. He won’t dominate Jake Delhomme’s attention quite as much and the Panthers are a run-first team.

I’ll be happy to get anyone here in round three. Moss, like Owens, has the feel of a boom-or-bust. He was ranked among the top five fantasy wideouts for the first six years of his career and is still only 29. It’s too early to give up on a Hall of Fame talent.

WR Tier 1.5 – Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne

Receiver 1 and 1A in Indy will cut into each other’s production, so they don’t quite have the explosive potential of tier one. They are also unbelievably safe bets at a precarious position. Wayne will fall in drafts because he only scored five times in 2005, but he gained more yards than Harrison in 2004 and caught more passes in 2005. He’s younger (and not coming off surgery) and the touchdowns should even out. If you miss the top tier, both Colts are fine third round picks.

WR Tier Two - Roy Williams, Chris Chambers, Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson, Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver, Deion Branch

There is a significant drop-off after this tier: Make sure you have at least one receiver before this group is done. Owning two will mean you can address other positions for a few rounds before addressing depth. All of the above except Williams are relatively safe bets. Williams is worth a pricey gamble with Mike Martz on his side. Chambers is too inconsistent to rank higher. His run at the end of last season was reminiscent of Drew Bennett’s somewhat fluky end to 2004. Too many factors (schedule, targets) went Chambers’ way. Ward has missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury, but he should benefit from Big Ben’s development.

Burress is inconsistent on a weekly basis, but will get his numbers. Jackson would be in the tier with the Colts receivers, but his knee is a major question mark. Keep a close eye on him. Santana Moss is unlikely to repeat his career year while sharing the receiver pie in Washington. Andre Johnson may finally come cheaply coming off a down year for Houston. Branch is holding out, but it would be a surprise if he wasn’t playing in Week 1.

WR Tier Three – T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Joe Horn, Javon Walker, Joey Galloway, Derrick Mason, Michael Clayton, Laveranues Coles, Lee Evans

These are classic WR2s. They should go in rounds 4-7; Try to grab one if you only have one receiver from the top two tiers. If any player here is a WR3, you are ahead of the game at receiver. Most places will have Clayton a tier or three lower. We don’t care. Check out his ADP so you don’t draft him too early, but we still see WR2 numbers. Flanker in a Jon Gruden offense is a great place to be and his rookie year wasn’t a dream.

Walker and Horn have the opportunity to be top five receivers … if everything breaks right. They could be held under 1,000 yards if everything breaks wrong. Everything did last season and they are both injury risks. Walker may not have his speed back until next season. Galloway may be overvalued coming off a career year. Coles, Mason, and Evans are No. 1 receivers on their respective teams, but very different players. Evans has the best chance of this group to bust out into a WR1, but Buffalo’s quarterbacks may hold him back. Mason defines steady. Sometimes if I take a risky early wideout like Roy Williams, I’ll pair him with a consistent veteran like Mason. Coles could be a good value after his numbers sank due to the Brooks & Vinny show in New York last season.

WR Tier Four – Nate Burleson, Rod Smith, Antonio Bryant, Drew Bennett, Eric Moulds, Isaac Bruce, Eddie Kennison, Roddy White, Reggie Brown, Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Keenan McCardell, Donte’ Stallworth, David Givens

These are WR3s and WR4s. Wide receiver rankings, especially this deep, tend to differ greatly depending on the source. Everyone has a couple favorite value candidates. I like Nate Burleson’s situation in Seattle, taking over a starting job on a receiver friendly offense. Antonio Bryant has enjoyed a standout camp and is San Francisco’s top option in the passing game by a mile.

Moulds and Isaac Bruce could be undervalued coming off down years, but can put up workmanlike veteran numbers. Roddy White, Reggie Brown, Matt Jones, and Ernest Wilford are young candidates to “break out,” but their offensive systems could hold them back. They are fun mid-to-late round options that are not yet every-week starters. Pair them with some veterans and look for good matchups. Givens and Stallworth have struggled with poor training camps, but should be in the starting lineup by Week 1. I doubt Devery Henderson can stay ahead of Stallworth in New Orleans.

WR Tier Five – Muhsin Muhammad, Terry Glenn, Kevin Curtis, Jerry Porter, Keyshawn Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Mark Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Samie Parker, Troy Williamson, Joe Jurevicius

Muhsin Muhammad, Terry Glenn, and Keyshawn Johnson have defined roles. They don’t have a great chance to explode, but 700-800 yards looks like a baseline for expectations. Porter is currently stuck behind Doug Gabriel on the depth chart in Oakland and may stay there. Curtis is one of the most promising number three wideouts in football. Brandon Lloyd, Mark Clayton, Michael Jenkins, and Samie Parker are young number two receivers with room to improve. They are fine fantasy reserve receivers that can be used depending on the matchup. Williamson and Jurevicius have “number one” receiver tags for now, but aren’t suited for the role.

WR Tier Six – Marty Booker, Braylon Edwards, Amani Toomer, Doug Gabriel, Corey Bradford, Bobby Engram, Arnaz Battle, Mark Bradley, Reggie Williams

These are the last of the receivers who should be drafted in most leagues. Upstart veterans like Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway were in this tier last year. This time, Marty Booker and Amani Toomer may be overlooked veterans who could still help fantasy teams. Edwards is recovering from a torn ACL and is likely to be overvalued. Gabriel has major sleeper potential as a starter in Oakland. Bradford has had a lame career, but will start in a Mike Martz offense. Engram will be useful if and when Darrell Jackson and Nate Burleson miss time. Arnaz Battle would be a passable option in PPR leagues if he could ever stay healthy.

WR Tier Seven- Chris Henry, Brandon Stokley, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Travis Taylor, Robert Ferguson, Ashley Lelie, Antwaan Randle El, Chad Jackson, Dennis Northcutt, Eric Parker, Mike Williams, Cedrick Wilson, Reche Caldwell, Peerless Price

These players are worth a look in deep leagues. Vincent Jackson could be a force if he gets a chance in San Diego’s starting lineup. Reche Caldwell and Peerless Price will start, but have weak track records. Most of the other options here are bye week material or need an injury to make a big impact.

Tight End

As recently as 2003, only four tight ends topped 55 receptions. Last season, a record 12 players managed the feat. The NFL is ever-evolving and right now every coach wants a zone busting tight end to patrol the middle of the field. The incredible depth at the position serves to devalue a dominant player like Antonio Gates. He’s still a solid third-round choice, but there’s no need to reach if Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler are available in round six. Furthermore, a sleeper or two like Chris Cooley emerges on a yearly basis.

TE Tier One – Antonio Gates

The ascension of Philip Rivers to the quarterback job in San Diego isn’t a huge concern. New quarterbacks love using their tight end and Gates, unlike the rest of this list, is the No. 1 receiver on his team. He will get the ball and is a reasonable value if he slips deep into the third round. I’d take him over tier two wideouts.

TE Tier Two – Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Chris Cooley, Alge Crumpler

I usually include a bigger second tier at tight end, but these five stood apart this season. Round four is a little early to draft them because there is so little separation between this group, but Cooley, Crumpler, and possibly Heap will be on the board in round six. Heap should benefit from the presence of Steve McNair and was the top fantasy tight end down the stretch in 2005. Shockey and Crumpler have good rapports with their quarterback. Gonzalez only scored twice last season, but the total was fluky. He caught plenty of passes and he still needs to play a big role in Kansas City’s offense because of the poor receiver depth.

In most years, I’d rank Cooley right behind Heap because of his age and great hands. But I think the addition of two solid receivers will cut into his totals. He is still a bargain if he slips into round seven or eight. If you draft a tight end from this tier, a backup isn’t necessary until very late in the draft, it at all. I would probably just pick up a tight end during a bye week. These are every-week starters.

TE Tier Three - Jason Witten, Heath Miller, L.J. Smith, Randy McMichael

Witten is a solid player, but will lose targets to Terrell Owens and rookie tight end Anthony Fasano. He was very efficient last year in the red zone, but the Cowboys didn’t use him enough. Heath Miller is the next great tight end. He will make a similar jump to the one Cooley and Witten made the last two years, but Miller is more talented. He has the best shot of this group to score ten times because he’s ultimately Pittsburgh’s number two receiver. L.J. Smith can be a top five player, but we don’t trust him to stay healthy. McMichael is consistent, but lacks explosive ability. If you draft a tight end here, taking a backup late is a fine idea.

TE Tier Four – Alex Smith, Ben Watson, Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Ben Troupe, Jermaine Wiggins, Dallas Clark

It’s easy to see the tight end revolution at work in this tier. A few years ago, tight ends ranked after the top ten were blocking specialists. Now there are a bevy of athletic catch-first options with potential for 600 receiving yards. If I miss out on Heap and Cooley, I will probably pass on the tight end position altogether until this tier, then draft a couple upstarts like Smith and Troupe. Tampa’s Alex Smith is especially underrated in most leagues after an impressive 41-catch rookie year. We hear about the third-year leap for receivers all the time, but the second-year leap for tight ends is where it’s at. Look at the track record of the tight ends in the top tiers and very few had rookie year success. That’s why I’d rather let someone else take Vernon Davis. He hasn’t enjoyed a standout off-season and plays on a poor offense.

Ben Watson and Ben Troupe are candidates to make big leaps entering their third season. Watson has ridiculous athleticism and looks like Tom Brady’s No. 2 option, assuming Deion Branch returns. Troupe could take advantage of teammate Erron Kinney’s injury. Dallas Clark is too inconsistent, while Jermaine Wiggins is a solid TE2 in PPR leagues. Kellen Winslow is intriguing, but his name is forcing his Average Draft Position too high.

TE Tier Five – Jeb Putzier, Jerramy Stevens, Tony Scheffler, Erron Kinney Daniel Graham, Bubba Franks, Joe Klopfenstein, Marcedes Lewis, Marcus Pollard

At worst, these are solid players to pick up when your starter gets hurt or is on a bye week. In a deeper league, they are reasonable TE2s. Scheffler has been extremely impressive in training camp and could be Denver’s starter as a rookie. Klopfenstein should also start as a rookie, but is a better bet for 2007. Stevens would be in the tier above but is expected to miss the first month of the season and may not be 100% all year. Don’t reach for a player in this tier because there will be enough decent replacement level players on the waiver wire.

Kickers

The best strategy for kickers is no strategy! Wait for the last two rounds and see what’s left. If there is a top tier kicker still on the board, take the plunge a round early. If not, take your top choice with your final selection.

This isn’t the only strategy out there. There will be kickers drafted as high as the ninth and tenth round. I don’t understand the allure. It’s not just the position volatility that I don’t like – every position is volatile. It’s the position scarcity. Your kicker could get injured every week of the season and there would be a competent set of replacements on the waiver wire. There should always be ten starters to choose from in a given week. And they are all roughly the same. Over half of all NFL kickers scored between 100-125 points last season! They can’t all be owned.

Our friends at FootballOutsiders.com have proven that field goal attempts are almost an entirely random stat. That’s why Adam Vinatieri can go from a league leader in points (2004) to a below average fantasy option (2005) in one year. That’s why Neil Rackers is likely to take a step back this year. If it’s all entirely random, why invest an early kicker?

Plus, when you draft a kicker in the final round, it’s easier to play the matchups throughout the season by dropping and picking up players based on opponent. Now that’s a kicker strategy.

K Tier One – Adam Vinatieri, Shayne Graham, Neil Rackers, Mike Vanderjagt, Nate Kaeding, David Akers, Jeff Wilkins, Jason Elam

It’s difficult to predict the scoring champion in any given year (Hello, Jay Feely), but these eight players have the best chance to score over 130 points. Other than Akers, Graham, and Elam, everyone here kicks indoors or in warm weather for a good offense. Akers has proven his mettle throughout his career and Elam kicks at high altitude and against the AFC West. Graham has been highly consistent as a Bengal.

Kaeding has a big leg and the Chargers may score fewer touchdowns this season. He’s my favorite last-round value target. I’ve seen Vinatieri and Rackers go very early, but Vanderjagt has surprisingly slipped to the final two rounds. He’s accurate. Depending on your roster and the league scoring system, everyone here is worth a look in round 14 instead of waiting for round 15 if you are into that sort of thing. Not that there’s anything wrong with it.

K Tier Two - John Kasay, Ryan Longwell, Sebastian Janikowski, Josh Brown, Jeff Reed, Olindo Mare, Lawrence Tynes, Josh Scobee, Jay Feely

I could live with starting anyone here on a weekly basis. Most of the offenses are stable and everyone has good job security and has been a top ten kicker in the past. Seabass wasn’t accurate last year, but has a big leg and has showed it off in the preseason. Feely was the scoring champ in 2005, but has a weak track record and plays in a windy stadium. I wouldn’t draft anyone here before the final round. Any of them could be replaced if you see a waiver wire kicker that has a good-looking matchup.

K Tier Three - John Hall, Matt Stover, Jason Hanson, John Carney, Michael Koenen, Phil Dawson, Mike Nugent, Kris Brown, Rian Lindell, Joe Nedney, Matt Bryant, Rob Bironas, Robbie Gould, Stephen Gostkowski, Martin Gramatica

These kickers lack the potential of the kickers in the top tiers. They are all competent enough to use as waiver pickups. Nedney could be interesting if the 49ers offense can get in field goal range more. Hall still has a big boot and the Washington offense should improve. None of the kickers above face serious competition going into training camp. Koenan is trying to become the first punter/kicker the NFL has seen in a while. He has a big leg and kicks indoors, so there is some upside with him. He manages to make the kicker position cooler. New England has the only remaining kicker battle going on, with rookie Stephen Gostkowski the favorite to win the job over Martin Gramatica.

Team Defense

Team Defense is more dependent on league scoring system than any position. In many leagues, where points allowed are de-emphasized, team defense is an afterthought on par with the kicker position. In other leagues, where significant bonus points are given for points allowed, sacks, and turnovers, it can be advantageous to grab a defense early. The scoring system also decides which defenses are valuable.

While I tailor my strategy to the league, it’s very rare that I grab a defense in the first 11-12 rounds. The main reason, just like with kickers, is position scarcity. There will be over ten options available on the waiver wire every week and they are all nearly guaranteed to score points. Since sacks and especially turnovers are so dependent on luck, picking a team defense at random would often do fine. Since turnovers, points allowed, and sacks are also dependent on opponent, it’s a great idea to play the matchups and pick up whoever is playing the 49ers or Bills on a given week. Perhaps pick them up two weeks early to beat your opponents.

Team defense can also be unpredictable. Chicago, New York (Giants), Cincinnati, Seattle, and Indianapolis went undrafted last season in many leagues before great seasons. That’s why I’d rather make an educated guess in the last two rounds, and then play the weekly matchup game if I guess wrong.

DEF Tier One - Chicago, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay

The Bears and possibly the Panthers and Steelers will go as early as the top 100-110 picks in many drafts. Pittsburgh is highly consistent, while Chicago prevents points very well and gets turnovers like a typical Cover 2 defense. Chicago returns everyone on defense and could be the one true difference maker as a team defense. Of course most people thought the same about Baltimore last season.

Carolina added bulk to an already-impressive D-line and should get sacks. Jacksonville is a very steady team that should get a boost if points-allowed is given extra weight. Tampa Bay is consistent and usually forces turnovers. If you are going to reach a round or two early, these are the teams I’d do it for.

DEF Tier Two - Bengals, Redskins, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Patriots, Seahawks, Cowboys

It isn’t necessary to draft two defenses, so these are the last teams we feel should be drafted in most leagues. All of the above could finish as the top fantasy defense and it wouldn’t surprise. The Bengals and Falcons get extra points in leagues that de-emphasize points allowed. They are made for turnovers and sacks. The reverse is true for Washington, who dominates without recording many big plays. Baltimore and New England are historically top-five defenses that may be great bargains as final round picks. Dallas’ young defense is ready for a big leap.

DEF Tier Three - Dolphins, Eagles, Chargers, Giants, Broncos, Vikings, Cardinals, Bills, Lions

Each of these teams have an Achilles heel (Giants give up points, Broncos don’t get sacks), but are talented enough to use as bye-week options or draft in leagues that require two team defenses. New York gets a bonus for leagues that are sack-heavy in scoring. Philadelphia is due for a bounce back season and Nick Saban’s squad should improve in year two in his system.

Tier Four - Cleveland, Green Bay, Kansas City, St. Louis, Houston, Tennessee, New York Jets, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco

I don’t consider any of these defenses options before Week 1. They could be useful during the season as matchup options against poor offenses.

Tiers Angry E-mail Disclaimer:Tiers should be only be used as a rough guide to assist you on draft day. The rankings are subjective and should be adjusted for personal preference. All plans must be flexible. League scoring system, draft trends, and Average Draft Position (ADP) are also factors to consider. Please consult your doctor if your excitement over draft day lasts longer than eight hours. Thanks for reading this far. Good luck