Some hockey questions to the guru's

[larzuk35]

As I try to learn how to better cap the sport I truly love, I hope some of you will bear through a couple of questions and help out if possible.

I'm trying to figure out where I'm not capping games better and I'm curious as to where you guru's put your emphasis while capping games. I'm crunching #'s again today and trying to figure out what kind of values to put to my findings. Right now I start out with a base score (generally SOGA X GAA) but am not sure of values to adjust that base score from there. I guess where I get lost in all of this is how important is a team with a good pp% versus a team with an average pk% and the values associated with that? And what kind of value do you put towards a team playing in B2B games (plus for the other team or minus for that team)?

My problem is that I listen and read a lot of you saying that your numbers show the game to be Team X @ 2.4 and Team Z @ 2.8 and I'm not anywhere near those #'s. I realize that it's all subjective to what you're looking for and that anyone can adjust findings from data mining, but I really would like to be better at this and it gets extremely frustrating at times.

If anyone would happen to have any suggestions on articles to read or places for information on better capping like this or suggestions on things that you have come up with in your learning curve, I would truly appreciate the help.

I'm not someone who just wants to "follow" someone else's picks, but would rather have my own that I can blame just one person on. And who knows, perhaps someday can help others as well. I'm not afraid of the work and I actually rather enjoy the process of putting it all together, but right now I'm just kind of stuck.

Thanks for any ideas or suggestions and BOL to all of you!!



larz

[tool21]

It's all about value. You can't bet on the team you think is going to win you have to bet on the team that you think can beat the spread. And when i say the spread, even with moneyline sports there is a hidden spread. You just have to identify which numbers make what spreads. It's not very much, and this is completely bogus info im bout to give but say you have Team A winning by .3 goals and you figure .3 of a spread is equal to -130 and the current line is -155 then you should not bet on the favorite. If anything you would have to bet the dog in order to make money IN THE LONG RUN. Try things out. Guess and check. First find some way to make your own spread to the game. Then decide on a guestimation of what spread turns into what moneyline. If you cap a game to where you have Team A winning by .1 goal but yet the line is -160 then obviously you have a play on the dog. That part is common sense you just need to know it should be a close game but that moneyline is way too much. I spent 2 years on this forum running trial systems and what not and finally landed something that doesn't lose. It doesn't win much either....but it doesn't lose much. Time will tell for me though. I think it's more satisfying coming up with something yourself that works. Good luck with your endeavors.

Also, i don't even pay any attention on teams playing B2B's or what not. Maybe i'm doing that wrong idk. I'm def. not a hockey guru but it's all i have to offer. Pluslines is pretty good at Hockey stuff so maybe he would chime in. He also looks at trends like previous history between the teams. I'm not a big fan of those kinds of trends. A new year makes new results, IMO

[larzuk35]

TYVM tool, that's exactly the kind of input I really appreciate.

I've read and re-read your thread a ton of times and really look at your teams and picks as somewhat of a baseline for who I'm looking at in a game (along with the other threads). I also like your theory on playing only even or dogs on the moneyline because I'm in the same catagory of not being able to find line value in the ML of games. I do believe you can make money along those lines as long as you find the value teams.

I'm just looking at tuning my skills at getting those value teams and applying it. Sometimes my "trial and error" methods get frustrating and I'm not sure if it's on my end or that's just the way the puck is rolling as of late.

Thanks for the input and looking forward to that New Year!



larz

[PacMan]

larzuk35,

Not a hockey guru either but found what works on this end and stick to it. Not in the business of telling people 'do it this way' but will pass along some general information that has proven useful to this person.

Start by setting up a data base for the N.H.L. on whatever program you have on your computer (or do it by hand if none present). Record all the official stats from each and every game for at least three regular seasons. Keep track of the teams that win and/or cover. At some point you should be able to see which stats are more important/prevalent for teams winning. That is where one should spend their energy on. Down the road, you might want to put more emphases/weight on certain filters. That is just one portion for wagering.

The second is money management. In short, you have to set up a method/system that works with your selection process (above).

BOL with your quest in finding a formula that works for you.

[larzuk35]

TY PacMan. This year is actually about my fifth year of capping hockey for the most part. I've been trying to keep spreadsheet records for my angles, but haven't keep real good records on just team stats so I see what you mean about looking back at certain angles. I think I've spent too much time on looking at the smaller picture of right now rather than all around. I'm not a big fan of trends (mentally always thinking that it's "time" for that trend to stop I guess), but I can see what you mean about stat keeping.

I think I'm just in that mode of looking at my numbers on the season and thinking that I'm way off base this year. What's got me puzzled is that last year it was very profitable and this year it's not. That's kind of the reason for picking your guys brains, to see if I'm off track this year or last year was a fluke.

Thanks for the input PM, and I do consider you one of the guru's (anyone willing to put themselves out there and predict with their picks on a consistent basis is one to me). BOL to you and Happy New Years to all!!



larz

[PacMan]

Originally Posted by larzuk35

TY PacMan. This year is actually about my fifth year of capping hockey for the most part. I've been trying to keep spreadsheet records for my angles, but haven't keep real good records on just team stats so I see what you mean about looking back at certain angles. I think I've spent too much time on looking at the smaller picture of right now rather than all around. I'm not a big fan of trends (mentally always thinking that it's "time" for that trend to stop I guess), but I can see what you mean about stat keeping.

I think I'm just in that mode of looking at my numbers on the season and thinking that I'm way off base this year. What's got me puzzled is that last year it was very profitable and this year it's not. That's kind of the reason for picking your guys brains, to see if I'm off track this year or last year was a fluke.

Thanks for the input PM, and I do consider you one of the guru's (anyone willing to put themselves out there and predict with their picks on a consistent basis is one to me). BOL to you and Happy New Years to all!!



larz

larzuk35,

You're welcome. Five seasons ... that's fantastic. Don't you wish you had the stats and game results for all of them now? Back when started wagering was told to go from the beginning of the season to it's end (regular) and to record all stats/records although you may not need them right now. Not picking, just stating the importance of record keeping because by this point (5 years), you should have a handle on the sport - if not, scale back or step away for a couple and try again later. I get you saying "trends" go against me but they are not a be all, end all just a tool. A perfect example is this afternoons game between ATL and BOS. BOS has not lost seven in a row since 1997 - if a person were to wager solely on that, I'd say they're a dumb ass.

When you say your numbers are off for the season, do you mean your filters? What's changed since last season? I could give two-shits about my "won-loss record", to me it's about the cash. Think of that in this format, would you rather be 120-62-0 and down $300 for the season or be 5 games under 500 and up a little over $18.5k? This is why money matters - don't let others tell you it can't be done. Find a way that works for you and you'll get the last laugh/word.

There is something to be said about one's true friends. During the losing these people will still be there for you but the falsehoods will be gone and have moved onto the next 'hot' capper of the day/week. Be certain to surround yourself with good quality people - some that gamble, some that don't, you'll need balance from both at times to help get yourself back on track.

You also need to make the choice of, do I want to do this full-time or part-time? It will and does make a difference on how you approach it. As you can see there are many facets that I take into consideration. I keep what works, tweak what didn't (after back testing) for next season and move forward.

Again, thank you but there are those who are better than I. I'm just here doing what I can ...

Happy New Year and BOL in '08.

[larzuk35]

Thank PM, very sound words.

I totally agree with the step back and take a break from it. That's what I've done since just before Christmas. Spent time with the family and removed myself from betting. Just watched what others were doing and tracked for my own info. Now that were beginning a new year I'm looking to move forward.

As far as the difference from last year to this year, I believe you're right about the filters. I think that I've weighed to heavy on certain values and not enough on others. It's not a huge difference from last year to this year, just significant enough for me to question why. I'm one of those people always looking to improve and not just settle. Thankfully I've always maintained a sound money management system and track it very tightly. That's what keeps me in the business. I just need to start paying as much attention to the sport record keeping as I do to the mm record keeping.

Now it's time to go play some golf and then get ready to party tonight!!

Cheers to all!

larz

[winkyduck]

as for me i will NOT lay anything over -130 at most and usually nothing over -125. if i like the fave and they are -130 or more i look to lay -1.5 if i really wanna play the game

the NHL is a BRUTALLY physical sport and teams playing 3 in 4 or 4 in 5 can be sucking gas on the last game

also in the NHL more than ANY OTHER TEAM sport - one player makes the biggest impact. so when playing a side you have to know who will be in nets. now sometimes you can find out ahead of time - sometimes it is common sense and sometimes you have to use your head. if the Devils and playing a top-notch team - Marty will be in nets. if Marty has played 10+ games in a row and here comes someone like the Kings into town - damn good chance Marty will get the game off - especially if the Devils are playing someone decent tge next day or 2 days away - meaning a GREAT chance to get Marty some rest against a lower echelon team and while it might not be public knowledge that Marty will sit - common sense indicates he might

if you play dogs you can hit 50% and make a lot of money and as i said - really nothing over -125 for me and even that is rare with -120 about the most i will usually lay but the dog i will take at any price

[larzuk35]

Thanks Winky, that's always been the scavenger hunt of betting on hockey (finding the starting goalie). Goaliepost works well, but is only as good as the info they're getting as well. Every once in awhile I end up with turning on a game that I thought I knew the starting goalie and seeing someone else between the pipes.

I haven't had a lot of success with the -1.5 this year. Seems like everytime I like a fave that much they seem to have a let down night so I've gotten to the point of just laying off those games. That seems to be working better for me. I'm now finding better success of playing the dogs (after learning from those around here) and looking for the plays on that side of the ML.

Last night was a very positive note for the season for me, so we'll see how it goes. I have a much better outlook going into this new year and I think the break away from capping was just what I needed. Let's keep it going!!

BOL to all!!



larz

[Bookie Buster]

larzuk35,

I believe that with hockey you have to keep it simple and I have found that playing dogs is one of the best ways to make money in hockey. Now do not get me wrong when I see a high ML like -300 or so that makes me look at that game to see if there is value in the PL for the Fav and most time over the season you will win doing this but you have to look hard at the numbers as you know money managemnet is very important and throwing good money at a bad bet is not worth your time and bankroll.

Let me know if I can help more I will share a formula with you just shot me a email.

BB

[NoNewbieca]

for starting goalies you can also try Left Wing Lock too, it can be pretty accurate. GL in your capping, I hope that you have a thick skin.

[larzuk35]

NoNew, thanks for the site, looks great. And yes, the skin is getting thicker (and older) every year.

BB, thanks for the tips. I'm finding that for the last few days going back to some of my original ideas has been working better for me as well (thus back to basics and keeping it simple). I might have been falling into that "over analyzing" trap that I sometimes let myself get into. Sometimes you just have to understand that you're not going to win every game and that teams will lose that "should" have won.

A separate note to everyone that has participated in this thread; thank you very much. It's great to come across a site that actually offers suggestions rather than derogatory comments towards noobs to a site. I really appreciate it.

Happy New Years and BOL to all!! And how cool was it to watch that outdoors game this morning? There's some memories from childhood again.



larz