1st period under 1.5...

[Jambruins]

Team		1P <1.5		W	-	L	=	UNITS
ANH		60%		32	-	1	=	7
ATL		48%		25	-	2	=	-24
BOS		57%		28	-	1	=	3
BUF		65%		31	-	0	=	31
CAL		48%		24	-	1	=	-1
CAR		42%		22	-	1	=	-3
CHI		40%		20	-	2	=	-29
CLB		71%		36	-	0	=	36
COL		54%		27	-	1	=	2
DAL		55%		29	-	1	=	4
DET		53%		27	-	1	=	2
EDM		54%		28	-	2	=	-21
FLA		61%		31	-	0	=	31
LA		55%		28	-	2	=	-21
MIN		64%		32	-	0	=	32
MON		49%		24	-	1	=	-1
NAS		58%		29	-	1	=	4
NJ		63%		31	-	0	=	31
NYI		76%		38	-	0	=	38
NYR		55%		28	-	2	=	-21
OTT		48%		24	-	2	=	-25
PHI		44%		21	-	1	=	-4
PHO		63%		31	-	0	=	31
PIT		43%		21	-	1	=	-4
SJ		67%		33	-	0	=	33
STL		69%		33	-	0	=	33
TB		52%		26	-	2	=	-23
TOR		57%		29	-	1	=	4
VAN		58%		29	-	1	=	4
WAS		54%		27	-	2	=	-22

I have been playing around with the goals scored and goals allowed for each team so far this season. In the above table the 1P <1.5 is for goals allowed and goals scored. For example, Washingtons games stay under 1.5 goals for both teams in the first period 54% of the time. Looking at these numbers and running a 4 game chase results in the W-L=Units column. I used odds of -125 for under 1.5 goals in the first period. Each loss results in about a 25 unit loss. With that you can see that any team with a percentage over 60% has done well in the 4 game chase. The best 5 teams percentage wise are NYI, STL, CLB, SJ, MIN. The best 5 teams unit wise are NYI, CLB, SJ, STL, MIN.

Here are the results for a 3 game chase

Team		1P <1.5		W	-	L	=	UNITS
ANH		60%		32	-	3	=	1
ATL		48%		25	-	3	=	-6
BOS		57%		28	-	2	=	7
BUF		65%		31	-	2	=	10
CAL		48%		24	-	4	=	-18
CAR		42%		22	-	5	=	-30
CHI		40%		20	-	6	=	-42
CLB		71%		36	-	1	=	26
COL		54%		27	-	2	=	6
DAL		55%		29	-	3	=	-2
DET		53%		27	-	3	=	-4
EDM		54%		28	-	4	=	-14
FLA		61%		31	-	2	=	10
LA		55%		28	-	4	=	-14
MIN		64%		32	-	1	=	22
MON		49%		24	-	4	=	-18
NAS		58%		29	-	2	=	8
NJ