NHL playoff historical data...

[brewers7]

Back at my home base, I have been posting several NBA and NHL playoff hypothesis the last 2 weeks and here is another one for today:

Checking on brewers7's hypothesis that NHL Teams that have a 3-0 series lead will close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, I found the following data:


2003-04: 1-1
2002-03: 2-1
2001-02: 0-0
2000-01: 3-1
1999-00: 2-2
1998-99: 3-0
1997-98: 3-0
1996-97: 2-3
1995-96: 2-1
1994-95: 4-2
1993-94: 2-1
1992-93: 3-2
1991-92: 4-0
1990-91: 0-0
1989-90: 2-2
1988-89: 3-2
1987-88: 1-2
1986-87: 3-0
1985-86: 0-1
1984-85: 1-1

Last 10 years: 22-11
Last 15 years: 33-16
Last 20 years: 41-22

(Previous to 1986-87, the 1st round was a best-of-5)

Broken down further:

This is how the teams that were up 3-0 did in Game 4 the last 20 years:

Overall: 41-22
-Away: 30-21
-Home: 11-1

And this season, 2005-06, we had 2 examples already:

NJ on the Road for Game 4, won
COLO at Home for Game 4, lost

So updated records would be Away (31-21) & Home (11-2) as Dallas was able to buck the 20-year trend because the only other Away team to win Game 4 when they were down 3-0 won the game in OT (Philly a #3 seed losing to Buffalo (#2 seed) at Home in Round 2...Dallas won easily this year in Game 4 of Round One, 4-1...However, is the explanation because Dallas was a #2 seed playing a #7 seed??...

More history against Ottawa here:

1998-99 playoffs with Ottawa a #2 seed and Buffalo a #7 seed, Round 1:

Apr 21 Buffalo Sabres 2-1 at Ottawa Senators
Apr 23 Buffalo Sabres 3-2 at Ottawa Senators 00:30:35 OT
Apr 25 Ottawa Senators 0-3 at Buffalo Sabres
Apr 27 Ottawa Senators 3-4 at Buffalo Sabres

A sweep...

Yet, with all of this history against Ottawa, I feel that they win Game 4 because Dallas salvaged 1 game this season in their series vs. Colorado against this strong historical trend and they had 2 straight heart-breaking OT losses in Games 2 & 3, yet still managed to win Game Four 4-1...

We'll see...

GL...