The Rule of Six....Day 9 (Oct 11)

[Oceanboy]

Ok guys, I have been doing this since the season started at my original site but since I'm starting to feel homey here I thought I start contributing more to the site by providing information that will be useful to everyone. And since I'm in a giving mood the extra work its not bothering me today. The parameters of the system is to track any NHL game that involves the number 6 on the total and to establish a pattern or trend in which we can profit from... The key is to tracked this for 14 days as the 1st 2 weeks of the season will be time for all teams, players, and coaches to make adjustments to the line up, the new rules and to get an identity for the team..so all the plays will be starting to go live on Day #15 and I will posted them on this daily thread called the rule of six.....


Part 1 (games that open at 5.5 and move to 6 or higher, or games that open at 6 and either stay there or move up or games that opened at 6.5 and dropped to 6)

YTD Record: 19-11-3 (UNDER)

Today we have 6 games that qualify...

1.Bos/Fla 6 to 6
2.Buf/TB 6 to 6
3.NJ/NYR 6.5 to 6
4.Dal/Cal 6 to 6
5.Det/ LAK 6 to 6
6.Nash/Pho 6 to 6


Part 2 (games that open at 6 and move down)

YTD Record: 0-0

no games qualifying today


Part 3 (games that opened at 6.5 or higher and stay above that level)

YTD Record: 11-5(Under)

Today we have 1 qualifying games:

1.NYI/Wash 6.5 to 6.5


Part 4 (games that opened at 6.5 or higher and moved down)

YTD Record: 1-0 (Under)

no games qualifying today




glta as always.....OB

[Oceanboy]

Also I'm adding some useful information that a very good poster has tracked down for us......

Over/Under Stats - 10/5 to 10/11

(All lines are archived from Don Best)

The past week's numbers...

WED - 8-6-1 to the Over

THU - 2-1 to the Over
FRI - 4-3 to the Under
SAT - 7-5 to the Under

SUN - 2-1 to the Under
MON - 4-2-1 to the Under
TUE - 5-0 to the Under


SUN thru TUE - 11-3-1 to the Under (78%)
WED (opening night) - 8-6-1 to the Over (57%)
THU thru SAT - 12-10 to the Under (54%)

Overall = 29-21-1 to the Under (58%)


Also, here's a breakdown by period for an O/U of 1.5 (available at 5 Dimes)

1st period - 32-21 to the Over (60%)
2nd period - 34-19 to the Over (64%)
3rd period - 37-16 to the Over (69%)

FYI--I didn't count OT for the 3rd period, don't think it would count.

Overall - 103-56 to the Over (64%)



Today, the O/U went something like this:

1st period - Over 1.5 goals (-145)
2nd period - Over 1.5 goals (-200)
3rd period - Over 1.5 goals (-175)

At (-200) on the ML, you need to hit 66% to break even, so there appears to be some value on these overs by period, mostly period 3.



Even though Unders are dominating for game totals the last two days, there's a good reason why the books have the overs at -145 to -200 for the over 1.5 for any period. Let's take a look at the totals by period for the last two days...

MON
1st period - 5-3 to the Under
2nd period - 8-0 to the Over
3rd period - 5-3 to the Over

Game totals - 4-2-1 to the Under


TUE
1st period - 4-1 to the Over
2nd period - 3-2 to the Under
3rd period - 4-1 to the Over

Game totals - 5-0 to the Under


Seems strange, no? But with a 1.5 as the O/U...that's only 4.5 goals per game while the totals are around 6...so we do see a big discrepancy like this. The books may change to O/U of 2.0, but for now, there's some decent value in period 3...which we get desparate teams giving it their last shot, both defenses tired, extra goals from empty-nets...just some reasons why the scoring is a bit higher in the 3rd period. You can't get rich quick playing (-180) all the time, but pick your spots and see how it goes!

Here's a breakdown by period for the 1st week...

1st Period
10/5 - 11-4 to the Over
10/6 - 3-0 to the Over
10/7 - 4-3 to the Under
10/8 - 6-6
10/9 - 2-1 to the Over
10/10 - 5-3 to the Under
10/11 - 4-1 to the Over

2nd Period
10/5 - 10-5 to the Over
10/6 - 2-1 to the Over
10/7 - 4-3 to the Over
10/8 - 7-5 to the Under
10/9 - 2-1 to the Over
10/10 - 8-0 to the Over **
10/11 - 3-2 to the Over

3rd Period
10/5 - 9-6 to the Over
10/6 - 2-1 to the Under
10/7 - 7-0 to the Over **
10/8 - 10-2 to the Over **
10/9 - 2-1 to the Under
10/10 - 5-3 to the Over
10/11 - 4-1 to the Over


For those who want to know, last night's numbers
10/12
1st Period - 4-1 to the Under
2nd Period - 4-1 to the Over
3rd Period - 3-2 to the Over

Game Totals - 2-2-1


Again, just information that maybe useful to all cappers in this site.....


glta as always...OB

[kidslick]

thanks for the info

squares = over (most of the times)