My Tampa Bay Downs 2007-2008 Thread

[PacMan]

This is the thread I'll be using for the entire meet. Some posts will contain wagers, stats and at times random thoughts. All are welcome in this thread, all that's asked is to get the nonsense out of this thread. Opening day is Saturday and there will be a pick or two listed here.

[PacMan]

A few items to mention prior to getting to the listings. All races are `capped for either ‘fast’ or ‘firm’ surfaces (unless otherwise stated) - if the track comes off from either, use your best judgment. In the event there is a scratch, the race’s selection(s) should be avoided as the fractions/pace will be altered. Generally speaking, selections are meant to be played as win and place unless otherwise stated. Anyone who knows a lick or two about this sport will tell you at times there is a bias and when this occurs, if one’s been paying attention, you’ll recognize it and take it as an advantage and adjust your wagers accordingly. Not every day will have complete listings with/without comment(s) and at times a race will just have either the name/number or a significant ‘clue’ as to whom the selection is. Be prepared to lose more races than win because looking for value. What is meant by that is, if there are ten races on the card we only need to hit a pair of winners to break roughly even. In the event three are won, we’ve made money for the day based upon one selection per race ($40 wagering money). Obviously, when there’s more choices to play for the win, the cost increases. There’s other items to discuss, but they will have to wait for a future post. Best of luck this season to all.

Day 1: Saturday, 12.08.07

Race 1/ Tradition says to play every horse to win this race to ensure a cash positive meet - considerate done. The two that have gotten extra attention are Mt Greylock and Fish Fly Soup. They will be used as keys for the exotics and have w/p action.

Race 2/ Key Stone Point is given top billing for this race but with the lowly m/l of 2:1, there’s no value to that. The solution, use as key for exotics over Imacraftychoice, Elusive Knight, Billy’s Ace, Poundcake and Toast to Monty.

Race 3/ After Mr. Chalky wins a race, the following one has generated some nice double-digit winners. With that in mind, going to use So Honorie, A Crafty Fellow, North Stardom and Smarty Smith on top and in an exacta box.

Race 4/ In this race, there is but one choice for this person. Nickel Candy is whom will be used as a key for exotics. The other Z-man historically has done well on the lawn even off layoffs (applies here). This one does qualify for a play-back in next outing if doesn’t win (less injury).

Race 5/ Going to give Brown Eyed Cat and Dependabilty an extra look in the paddock, walking ring and post parade.

Race 6/ This is the chalkiest race on the card as one of these two should win the race, either Oasis Storm or Classy and Elusive. Both have m/l’s of 3:1 or less. Take a good look at the place and show pools for those who’ll be hitting the exotics as there is usually enough insight to be hand from them to complete your ticket(s).

Race 7/ Let’s take a shot at pulling a $20+ winner (based upon m/l) this race with Cartage Agent and Robyn Chief. Both will be used as keys for exotic tickets as well as w/p action.

Race 8/ How about a double keyed ticket? Ok, you got. Lets use Anjiz Crypto and Causin Confusion on top with both under as well as Smooth Lover and Barney Smith for an exacta and trifecta/triple.

Race 9/ Best horse in the race is Ivannarun. The lone question is, will fire today? If chalk’s not your thing, take another look at Alex Ingram and/or Price Cortez. An exacta is worth taking a chance for those with a few extra dollars.

Race 10/ For the day’s featured race, Message of a Myth, Charlie Papa, Avante and Robin des Concorde have all gotten my attention. Can see some nice exotics if this falls the right way.

Race 11/ Going to box Commander Bay, Gallant Lover, Fiore De, Replete and Eleanor’s Groom in the exotics and have a ticket on each one’s nose to close the day’s action.

[PacMan]

Scratch Comments For 12.08.07
The AE's scratching do not change anything. The scratches in the 3rd, 10th and 11th are found to be acceptable for selections listed although in the curtain closer we lost Gallant Lover.

[PacMan]

Notes For Day 2, Tampa Bay Down - Site of the 2007 KYD Winner
Race 2/ I've meet Tommy and his dad a long time ago and the one thing that always stood out to me was that did not sent out a horse that was not sound. They might not always win, but they were good enough to go (try). Mr. Proctor has had a large success at Tampa and regulary wins around 30% of the races for the met. His in the money percentage last met was a little over 60% - that is "bad" for him over the surfaces at Oldsmar. There is no reason to think his horse will not be in the money based on just the conditioner's deadication to this sport. If this one goes off at even money or higher, be thankful. Also worth a quick mention is Sumpter Landing. Nothing says ready to go - literally nothing. Look for yourself, the PP's don't lie. All I'll state is Ron Behrens has had good success in routes over the years at Tampa. 30:1, not when the beting windows are closed.

Race 4/ Personal Style will be a popular choice and rightly so as comes from Kirk Z's barn. This Z-man has been getting more popular with the betting public the last few meets with his high itm finishes. Awesome Illusion is trained by Lynne Scace who is becoming a solid contributor for the meets. Although always very busy, have never been "brushed off" by her. Nice, classy lady who knows her stuff. Looking for a horse who based on m/l odds who might get pictured? Take a look at Chris's Joy trained by Gerrald Bennett.

Race 5/ A TURF race. There are two in here that are extremely close for being this races' top choice. They are Iron Id and Squire Wyndham. The previous success by the trainers for the lawn is not a g'tee for today's success but it's a good indicator that they can get their horses ready. L1 is being used for Scace's runner and might be enough to get the win.

Race 6/ Lots to like about this race as each of the chosen horses has at least two reasons why they could win or place. The four (4) are Silverdina, The Smoke Did It, Evenly and Unfolding Wish. As it stands right now, there's your exacta box for the race. Hopefully, the paddock, walkingring and/or the post parade will help separate them just a little.

Race 7/ Part of the Pick 6 races. It seems every P6 ticket has at least one "upset" or "long shot" win the race and cause many a ticket to fall by the wayside. For that reason (and others not listed here) going to have No Halo On Me, ET to the Moon and Preachin Heat on the tickets.

Keys and exotics will be played but it is unknown at this time with which ones. Best of luck with your days action.

[PacMan]

Tuesday's Review

Race 2/ The choices finished 6th and 7th.

Race 4/ Kik Z's horse scr'd. Awesome Illuision won. Chris's Joy placed.

Race 5/ Iron Id was a disappointing third.

Race 6/ Evenly scr'd. Unfolding Wish won. This Smoke Did It placed ($22.00 exacta). Silverdina showed ($125 triple).

Race 7/ Wrong race for P6 longshot as No Halo On Me was 5th, ET to the Moon was 9th and Preachin Heat was fourth.

[PacMan]

Day 3 - Tampa Bay Downs, Early-Cliff Notes

Race 2: Star Brook gets top billing. Girl Power is worth a second look.

Race 4: La Corredora upper echelon. Fall Flower is worthy. Bubble Berry is interesting.

Race 5: Wow, a Kirk Z trained hoss with a m/l that’d pay double-digits! Jane’s runner second option.

Race 6: The double D’s are top level. AP’s worth taking notice (of).

Race 7: Golden Orbit has chance to knock off Back Up Kim.

Race 9: Out Gambling gets top honors. Whiskey Lit has solid connections.

Race 10: The ‘other’ Z-man over Senior Bennett’s runner.

Morning Sheet and Final Selections will start being sent around 8:15am EST.

[PacMan]

Focus Information, 12.18.07

1/ Morethanamircle

2/ Devil Slam, Galaxy Wind

3/ Mud Shark, Tricks of Glory, Island Sky, Magic Kipper

4/ Caricaturist, Triple Threat

5/ Once More, Campaign Drive, Pegann, Barbara My Barbara

6/ Trainee, Itchy Toes

7/ Mister Morabassa, Sparkling Springs

10/ Even Par

Cliff notes and Final sheet to be sent at normal times.

[PacMan]

Anyone wanting and/or needing Friday's DRF PP's use the link below:

http://www.geocities.com/pacman_lives_2005

[PacMan]

A one page printout of AT & PP sheet for today's races has been uploaded to the site listed in the previous post. Today should be interesting to say the least.

[PacMan]

12.27.07
In today's third race there are two horses that have filtered threw to make the final cut - doesn't mean they'll win, but they made it to the end. Heading into early scratches one should consider "a" Classy and Elusive and "b" A Slick Chic. The former will have little value, if any, and if goes off at even money or better consider this a late Christmas present. The latter falls into the bombs away category. They will be used as keys for exotics and on the Pick 3 tickets (plus one other in this leg) in addition to standard wagering. Look not only here but elsewhere as well to find another potentially large pay out.

[PacMan]

12.28.07
1/ Devil Slam gets top billing.

2/ Think of a drink and the parts you'd need. One part Dry Ice. One part (Just Add) Rum and You Got It. Should make for a good drink this afternoon.

8/ Ahead of Time gets top billing.

9/ Moment of Song and Holiday Moment share top honors for this race.

10/ Look for weather to be your guide (Jumby Sky and War Storm) to be wrapped with No Fancy Title.

Strange how these fit together today. Standards and keys in in effect. BOL with your wagers today.

[PacMan]

Sandpiper S., 65k

Here's our breakdown/comments for the race.

1/ Silk Ridge: profile play, returns to sprint, 50% win @ distance, player

2/ Freedom Afleet: won last cheapy @ CRC(22k), never won @ distance

3/ Unfolding Wish: won last cheapy locally but one should tread lightly if using that as the lone factor to dismiss this one's chances for b-2-b photo's, player

4/ Ben's Tune: a pair, from three, places (40k & 26500) @ distance, seems out of place (on paper) but has a shot @ making the ticket

5/ Arealhotlover: won the 90k Cassidy in last, workouts are enough to cover the racing lapse since then, M/L longshot of the race

6/ Bear Lahaina: won 60k in her debut (WO), never distance or track, minor share today @ best

7/ Formal Arrangement: has never competed @ or above this level nor tried the distance or track, like this one a pinch more than the above but that's not saying much

8/ Banga Ridge: won last cheapy @ CRC @ distance, closed in Cassidy to show, contender

9/ Aqua Azul: win over strip (20k) helps but it over-matched today

10/ Awesome Chic: won cheapy @ SUF (17k) in debut, solid bloodlines, good works but under only today

Good luck with your choices and selections today.

[PacMan]

Originally Posted by PacMan

Sandpiper S., 65k

Here's our breakdown/comments for the race.

1/ Silk Ridge: profile play, returns to sprint, 50% win @ distance, player

2/ Freedom Afleet: won last cheapy @ CRC(22k), never won @ distance

3/ Unfolding Wish: won last cheapy locally but one should tread lightly if using that as the lone factor to dismiss this one's chances for b-2-b photo's, player

4/ Ben's Tune: a pair, from three, places (40k & 26500) @ distance, seems out of place (on paper) but has a shot @ making the ticket

5/ Arealhotlover: won the 90k Cassidy in last, workouts are enough to cover the racing lapse since then, M/L longshot of the race

6/ Bear Lahaina: won 60k in her debut (WO), never distance or track, minor share today @ best

7/ Formal Arrangement: has never competed @ or above this level nor tried the distance or track, like this one a pinch more than the above but that's not saying much

8/ Banga Ridge: won last cheapy @ CRC @ distance, closed in Cassidy to show, contender

9/ Aqua Azul: win over strip (20k) helps but it over-matched today

10/ Awesome Chic: won cheapy @ SUF (17k) in debut, solid bloodlines, good works but under only today

Good luck with your choices and selections today.

6th race - Tampa Bay Downs - December 29, 2007
Race Name: Sandpiper S.
Off at: 2:55 Race Type: Stakes
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Sex Restriction: Fillies
Value of Race: $65,000
Distance: Six Furlongs
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:11.37
Pgm	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
3	Unfolding Wish	Carlos Montalvo	10.40	5.40	3.80
6	Bear Lahaina	Jerry Baird		5.60	3.20
10	Awesome Chic	Irwin J. Rosendo			3.20
Also ran: 8 - Banga Ridge , 7 - Formal Arrangement , 1 - Silk Ridge , 5 - Arealhotlover , 2 - Freedom Afleet , 4 - Ben's Tune , 9 - Aqua Azul
Wager Type		Winning Numbers		Payoff
$2 Pick 3		7-9-3 (3 correct)		404.60
$2 Exacta		3-6		79.60
$1 Superfecta		3-6-10-8		1,514.70
$2 Trifecta		3-6-10		364.40
Winning Breeder: Kinsman Farm
Winning Owner: Kinsman Stable
Winning Trainer: Dale Bennett

[PacMan]

12.30.07
Listed below are horses that will be in our exotics in one way, shape, form or another:

2/ (#9) Charming Lexie
3/ (#5) El Tampaino & (#9) C.B.'s Twister
4/ (#2) Charlie's Reprized & (#8) Galaxy Tax
5/ (#5) Excellent Job
8/ (#3) Bacon and Rice

Good luck with your choices, selections and wagers today.

[PacMan]

Originally Posted by PacMan

12.30.07
Listed below are horses that will be in our exotics in one way, shape, form or another:

2/ (#9) Charming Lexie
3/ (#5) El Tampaino & (#9) C.B.'s Twister
4/ (#2) Charlie's Reprized & (#8) Galaxy Tax
5/ (#5) Excellent Job
8/ (#3) Bacon and Rice

Good luck with your choices, selections and wagers today.

Charming Lexie placed. El Tampaino was 9th. C.B.'s Twister - see below. Charlie's Reprized placed. Galaxy Tax won. Excellent Job showed. Bacon and Rice was fourth.

3rd race - Tampa Bay Downs - December 30, 2007
Pgm	Horse	Win	Place	Show
9	C. B.'s Twister	43.20	17.80	11.60
10	Atlas Peak		5.40	4.00
7	Desultory			20.20

$2 Exacta		9-10		231.20
$2 Trifecta		9-10-7		8,654.20

[trytrytry]

PAC are you saying you had this one? or could have had this one. If so nice hit.

[PacMan]

Originally Posted by trytrytry

PAC are you saying you had this one? or could have had this one. If so nice hit.

trytrytry,

You've seen enough of my posts to realize rarely is the time will I post the results bolded and with a change in the font color & size. Fairly certain you're aware that Tampa Bay Downs is this person's favorite and wagering horse track. Please read/re-read post #14. If posting the results from a nice hit/score is upsetting to you, I'm sorry but it's similar to posting the results for one's record in one of the "big four". Do I keep a running log where I'm at for the met? Yes, but do not post it. What I'll tell you is that the wagers in/at/for Tampa Bay downs this meet to date are in the black. Thank you and have a great New Year!

[PacMan]

For Thursday, January 3, 2008

Early Notes

1/ Elanor's Groom

4/ Looking to beat Forbidden Colony? Take a closer look at L.I. Ice Tea and/or Del Pilot.

5/ Imacraftychoice

6/ (TURF) Nickel Candy and Eyes of K.T. have this one's attention.

8/ Red Chilly Knees and Sweet Sadie Girl are even heading into the race.

10/ Gift Box, Come Skip With Me and/or Brittany's Honour should w and/or w/p.

Will be used as keys and in standards. Adjust as needed because of scratches and track play.

From GP
2/ Pinfree
5/ Big Lover

[PacMan]

Originally Posted by PacMan

For Thursday, January 3, 2008

Early Notes

1/ Elanor's Groom

4/ Looking to beat Forbidden Colony? Take a closer look at L.I. Ice Tea and/or Del Pilot.

5/ Imacraftychoice

6/ (TURF) Nickel Candy and Eyes of K.T. have this one's attention.

8/ Red Chilly Knees and Sweet Sadie Girl are even heading into the race.

10/ Gift Box, Come Skip With Me and/or Brittany's Honour should w and/or w/p.

Will be used as keys and in standards. Adjust as needed because of scratches and track play.

From GP
2/ Pinfree
5/ Big Lover

8th race from Tampa provided a $33.20 exacta - I know "not much" but multiple tickets help. Gift Box got photographed after the 10th. Other than that not much else to say. A little something for Friday's card or other useful information will be listed later.