CHRIS LONGSHOT MOUNTAINEER PLAYS(TUESDAY)

[chris longshot]

*SOME OF THE PICKS, I THREW OUT LOGICAL HORSES BECAUSE THE WAY THE TRACK PLAYED TONIGHT, I JUST CAN'T PLAY SPEEDS, NO MATTER HOW GOOD THEY LOOK ON PAPER.


RACE 1

#2 CURATOR
#6 PUNK
#5 DYNAWAN
LONGSHOT: #10 BEHRY PICKER


RACE 2

#4 SITTING WYNN
#2 FLIRT
#10 QUICK EMOTIONS
LONGSHOT: #7 BANDIT TIME



RACE 3

#5 COW CREEK LADY
#7 TRUELY SWEET
#9 MISS SPALDING
LONGSHOT: #2 BUDDAH BLUE


RACE 4

#5 FRISK ME GENTLY
#7 HAIDAR
#1 SISTER ELEGANCE
LONGSHOT: #6 LADY CAROL


RACE 5(SUPER)

#1 SPARKMAN
#5 MAGIC BERTI
#2 CLASSIC ACRE
#7 SHAKESPEAREAN STORY
LONGSHOT: #8 CAST NO SHADOW


RACE 6

#3 BLAISE'S BROTHER
#4 BALLADO'S GOLD
#9 CHOCTAW
LONGSHOT: #7 SAY AGAIN


RACE 7

#7 PRECAUTIONARY
#9 STANDING BRAVE
#1 FATHER TIME
LONGSHOT: #5 FREE TO TALK


RACE 8

#2 BONNIE BONITA
#7 BLIND RAGE
#4 HALO VICTORY
LONGSHOT: #6 REGAL INDU


RACE 9(SUPER)

#10 TWICE BID
#5 ROY MASSIAH
#4 COLESLEW
#2 MEANINGLESS
LONGSHOT: #7 ZOODLES








GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
__________________
Making money will and always will be more important than being right!!!!!!!!!!

[Brock]

r#3 the #5 coming from CD is the 7/5 morning line favorite.
The horses coming from CD don't always do that well. If I get
beat buy the #5 I will still feel my bet is worth it.
I'm on the #9 w/p
ex box 9/1578
tri 9/8/1,5
tri 8/9/1,5
tri 1,5/9/8
tri 8/1,5/9

[The General]

Get em guys

[Almost Allright]

hey Chris or anyone else who knows the answer....how are you betting these picks? How are you meshing in your longshot with the other three. thanks

[chris longshot]

brock i'm not sure i would try to beat the 5, that race in that race i looked up the chart and that race came back key, 4 out of 7 winners, average beyer 60, could he lose always a possibility at the mountain but he will be a real short price, won't tell you what to do i just thought you should now that.

[chris longshot]

Originally Posted by Almost Allright

hey Chris or anyone else who knows the answer....how are you betting these picks? How are you meshing in your longshot with the other three. thanks

After the first three races, I probably should not be betting or giving picks at all lol. I only play trifectas, picks are really to be used in exotics, but you will need some cash to do so, I don't play exactas because my longshots run third much more than 1st or 2nd, I got tired keying my longshots in exactas and seeing them get third over and over again at huge prices, so I started keying them for 2nd and 3rd in trifectas mostly $1 so I can use more horses. I won a lot more that way. I like to play off my longshots, boxing a couple of favorites and getting $16 back does not excite me, I shoot big and as a result my win % is low but when I win, I get paid handsomely.

I never place a win bet or play a pk3, but sometimes the double, admittedly, I don't pick a lot of winners on top, I am much better at getting my longshots in the money but so far, not tonight, I'll bet to win if its a longshot I really like, I'll bet $2.00 on my longshot just in case he wins and screws up my trifecta, at least I might get back the money I spent on the trifecta.

For example I might Play: Race 1 MNR

$1 trifecta 2,6,5/10/2,5,6
$1 trifecta 2,5,6/2,5,6/10
$2 win on 10
$1 exacta 6/2,5 if I like the odds enough to key the 6
If 2/6 comes in I don't care because they are both favorites they payout sucks anyway

if you need anymore clarification let me know


all depends on how much money you have you could just box all four selections in a $1 exacta box $12, I just prefer the bigger payouts in trifectas, I fell if your good enough to get a 30,40,50 to 1 in the money you should get paid for it! sorry if I confused you but its difficult to tell ytou how I bet the odds have a lot to do with it. Chris

[Almost Allright]

thanks chris, man brock danced all around a 1000 tri in race 3, came 5,1,8

[chris longshot]

Originally Posted by Almost Allright

thanks chris, man brock danced all around a 1000 tri in race 3, came 5,1,8

sorry brock i was rooting for you nice capping

[Almost Allright]

ok and forgive me as i am a bit of a novice. explain to me your tri's again and how you are keying your dog for 2nd or 3rd. i am not getting it off of the 2,5,6/10. 2,6,5 example. thanks for your time in advance.

[chris longshot]

Originally Posted by Almost Allright

ok and forgive me as i am a bit of a novice. explain to me your tri's again and how you are keying your dog for 2nd or 3rd. i am not getting it off of the 2,5,6/10. 2,6,5 example. thanks for your time in advance.

tonight stay away from my picks there sure losers I handicapped a closer bias track and its speed bias track oh well

For example, in the first race I listed four horses: Win 2(Curator)
Place 6(Punk)
Show 5(Dynawan)
Longshot: 10(Behry Picker)


I keyed the longshot I like the 10 in the place/show spot in trifectas
$1 trifecta 2,5,6(favorites)/10(longshot)/2,5,6(favorites)
$1 trifecta 2,5,6(favorites)/2,5,6(favorites)/10(longshot)

if longshot wins race im a loser only doing place/show not on win end
if longshot runs out im a loser
if longshot gets 2nd and 3rd I only win if the 2,5,6 run in the money, say it comes back 2-10-7, i have the 2 in the 10 but did not have the 7, im a loser

if you need more help let me know i am always willing to chat and offer help to novice handicappers feel free to post on my thread in the future i post every day that mnr runs

[Almost Allright]

Ok i got it...it would look like this in first the 2 or 5 or 6, 10 in second, and 2 or 5 or 6 in third. and then the same but with the 10 in the 3rd spot and the 2,5,6 in either first or second. Thanks for the offer on posting, appreciate it.

[chris longshot]

you got it dude, you can also just box the first 3 picks in a trifecta box $6 and throw out the longshot, you can make money that way too just not as much with the longshot in the money. Tonight you will make no money off my picks lol

[Almost Allright]

Originally Posted by chris longshot

you got it dude, you can also just box the first 3 picks in a trifecta box $6 and throw out the longshot, you can make money that way too just not as much with the longshot in the money. Tonight you will make no money off my picks lol

so you handicapped for closers to do well and instead speed is hitting the board. Which does mountaineer favor? and if you did make a change in bias, was it due to weather? promise last one for tonight

[chris longshot]

last night it was really cold and the track was like sawdust, winners were coming from 6,7,8 at first call(first quarter mile), speed had no shot, I figured it would be the same way tonight but its about 15 degrees warmer there its definately affected the track, speed is king tonight, mark patterson been eluding to it all night, so it throws my picks out of whack, though I dont think I would have done well tonight anyway.

Mountaineer is generally a speed favoring track, usually winners are speed horses and horses who are on the pace(1,2 lengths off leader). Closers are usually not good bets at Mountaineer, deep closers do even worse. However, if there is no speed bias there is usually a wide bias, these are horses that come wide in the stretch with little early speed, usually from outside posts like 7,8,9,10 but are not deep, deep closers. They roll like they are on a conveyour belt on the outside while the speeds wilt, Lastly, there is sometimes a speed bias tied with an inside post bias, literally, posts 1-5, regardless of odds will come in some nights, its so bad you will see 1-2-3 come in almost every race not in that exact order but you get the point. That what makes Mountaineer one of the most difficult tracks: you have to be a good handicapper plus you have to assess the bias on a nightly basis I goofed tonight with that and I am paying the price.

Look at the last race my longshot Regal Indu ran 3rd at 25-1, I had the winner the 2 horse but not the one for 2nd at 45-1, trifecta paid 547.00 I hate when that happens especially when its another longshot that beats me.

[chris longshot]

Originally Posted by Almost Allright

so you handicapped for closers to do well and instead speed is hitting the board. Which does mountaineer favor? and if you did make a change in bias, was it due to weather? promise last one for tonight

anytime man, as you can see i love to type dont ever hesitate if you have a question, ask a million questions and ill try to keep my responses short next time, i was once a novice handicapper like you, no one ever helped me it was like baptism by fire. have a good night come back for more punishment on friday first post 700 lol