NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

[buffettgambler]

Chiefs @ Rams
Play: Rams -2.5
Comment:
Pros:
2 games ago, the Chiefs were supporting a 2-3 record and were considered a bottom feeding team without Green behind center. Two home wins later, the public appears to have re-found their confidence in the Chiefs. 2 games ago, the Rams were supporting a 4 and 1 record and were starting to be deemed a legitimate contender in the NFC playoff race. 2 losses later against solid teams and the public appears to not want anything to do with a team they once loved.

This appears to be a good spot for the Chiefs to get a bit of a reality check, as for years now they have been accustomed to misleading people when playing consecutive home games in a row. On the road, they appear to be an entirely different team, have been getting progressively worse, and should be winless. Although their pass defense ranks in the top 10, this is not an ideal match up for them. Their Cover 2 defense is heavily dependent on the solid play of their two starting cornerbacks. The last two week, the Chiefs either played a team that lacked the depth at receiver to line up in multiple receiver sets, or an ideal quarterback to take advantage of the hidden weaknesses that their pass defense possess. This will not be the case this week, as the Rams have a solid quarterback and depth at receiver to expose their deficiencies. Expect the Rams to line up in a lot of multiple receiver sets and run the type of offense they did in the past. The Chiefs lack depth at corner, and their safeties have been struggling at times defending the inner hash passing play. Curtis is becoming more of a factor each week in the passing game, and should create match up problems for Walls, as he has been struggling when lined up in the slot. The multiple receiver sets will not only allow the Rams receivers to fined seams in the inner hash of the Chiefs Cover 2, but it will also create more man to man match ups for Bruce and Holt. Surtain and Law have been playing well so far this season, but the fact of the matter is that they have lost a step in their game and are vulnerable on turf and having to cover receivers with the track speed in which Holt and Bruce possess. This should allow Bulger to have mismatches in different areas of the field. Although the Rams passing game have been solid, it still has been hindered by the sub par pass protection they have given Bulger. With Pace finally healthy, and the line being up against an anemic pass rush, don?t be surprised if you see a vast improvement out of Bulger this week. He has also done an excellent job protecting the ball and not throwing interceptions, which should force a defense that appears to be overmatched to have to make stops on their own. The Rams also have a good spot to put forth a balanced offense, as they appear to have a formable advantage on the ground as well. The Chiefs have an undersized front that has speed but lacks the strength to counter the power running games that they are up against. Although they were able to hold Tomlinson to under 50 yards and stopped another speed back last week in Morris, they really struggled defending the Steelers power running game. Expect Jackson to pose a difficult match up for this front seven, as he is one of the best hybrid power backs that could be effective running the ball up the middle and attacking the perimeter. The Chiefs are not accustomed to playing on this turf, and could also be worn down by this power running game, which could open the passing game and play action pass. The Rams red zone offense has also been getting progressively better. This is a good sign, as they have been able to move the ball downfield at will all year, but have not been able to finish off their drives with touchdowns. The Rams should be able to put points on the board. The sooner they are able to do so, the better, as the Chiefs offense is not built for shootouts.

There are some concerning variables for Rams bettors when the Chiefs have the ball. However, there are a few favorable variables as well. Johnson is coming off a game in which he carried the ball a career high 39 times, and looked spent at the end of the game. It is hard to tell how much he has in the tank on Sunday, but the fact that he carried a heavy workload can only be looked as a good thing for the Rams. Johnson is a north south runner, who heavily relies on getting square to the defender and run downhill. Haslett likes to utilize a lot of run blitzes that are vulnerable against zone blocking schemes, however, beneficial against running backs like Johnson that are much less effective when having his run disrupted early in its evolvement. The Chiefs have struggled on the road this year, and have been really sloppy at times. They have gotten behind early on the road and were forced to abandon their run game. The Rams have the advantages on offense to try to force the Chiefs in the same predicament. Huard and the Chiefs passing game have not been nearly as effective or consistent in his road games. The Rams cornerbacks have really been struggling and they lack the depth to contend with teams that utilize multiple receiver sets. The Chiefs rely on their tight end and running back in their passing game as much as any team in the AFC. They rarely line up in multiple receiver sets, and their two starting receivers are not good enough to constantly take advantage of the Rams poor play at corner. The Rams seem to pressure the quarterback well when playing on turf. Expect Haslett to devise schemes that force Huard to rush throws and potentially lead him into costly mistakes. The Rams have done a good job forcing turnovers so far year to date. Tinsinomia will likely return this week, which happens to be the key catalyst to their defense. Don?t be surprised if Little has a big game as well, as he has a big match up advantage over Sampson, who has really been struggling blocking the speed rushers he has been up against.

Cons:
The Chiefs appear to be playing better all around football this point and time. Their running game has been getting progressively better as their line is starting to work much more as a unit. This has allowed Johnson to showcase his talent. This running game also has a nice advantage over the Rams defense that has really struggled defending the run. Tomlinson ran the ball at will last week, and their tackling continues to be well below par. Huard has really been playing much better than most people anticipated (including myself). He appears to have a calmness to him which has allowed him to play within his means and not make mistakes. The Rams have struggled covering the tight end and running backs in coverage, which could create match up problems for them in the passing game. Bulger has been relying more on Bruce and Holt in the passing game more than he should. This does not bode well, as the Chiefs starting corners are savvy veterans that rarely bit on the tactics in which both receivers use. Curtis and McDonald can create match up problems, but Bulger still is lacking chemistry with both.

Conclusion:
Both teams play much better at home; therefore, home field advantage is a huge asset for the Rams. The Rams have too many weapons on offense for the Chiefs defense to continually contend with. Although the Rams have their flaws on defense, they play with a lot of intensity and speed at home, which could be overwhelming for an offense that is lead by a backup quarterback. Expect the Rams to bounce back after suffering two tough losses, while the Chiefs get a reality check after winning two impressive home wins.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Falcons @ Lions
Play: Falcons -5
Comment:
Pros:
The Falcons offense has really come alive during the last two weeks. At the beginning of the season, they had the most dominating rushing attack in football, but their offense was plagued by an inability to stay two dimensional. This in large part due to two factors. Vick did not show poise in the pocket and his accuracy and decision making was well below par. Secondly, the Falcons passing offense is highly predicated on Crumpler, whose play at the beginning of the season was well below par, as he continually dropped key passes, and was unable to provide Crumpler a consistent passing option over the middle of the field. Not only has Vicks passing accuracy and poise get much better over the last couple of weeks, but Crumpler has finally regained his form and has now become one of the best passing options in football. At the same time, the Falcons running game remains potent, providing the Falcons a two dimensional offense that has become really hard to stop. This appears to be good week for this offense to continue its upward trend. The Falcons have a favorable edge running the ball, even though that is the only area of the Lions defense that has held its own so far year to date. The Falcons running game is much more dangerous on fast tracks in which the Lions field should provide. The Lions run defense has actually now become a liability as the absence of their best run stopper Rogers leaves their young linebacking group unprotected. Expect the Falcons to have success running the ball on the perimeter with Dunn and Vick, as their zone blocking schemes should pay big dividends up against a young front seven that has the tendency to over pursue running lanes. Norwood has provided the Falcons a good change of pace back and interior runner who should be effective running the A gap without Rogers at tackle. This effective running game should open up the passing game, especially the play action pass. No other team has defended the long ball worse than the Lions so far this year. This does not bode well for the Lions chances in this game, as the Falcons passing game is highly predicated on third level passes. Both the Falcons receivers are vertical threats that should provide match up problems for the Lions corners. They should also be left in isolation most of the game, as teams are being forced to put two men on Crumpler in passing situations. With a safety stacked in the box most of the game concentrating on the run, Crumpler is also primed for a big game. The Lions safeties have not played well in coverage, and there is no linebacker in football that could cover Crumpler. The Lions have really lacked a pass rush this year which is not something you want going up against Vick, as he is his own worst enemy and prone to careless decisions when under pressure. Vick is also prone to the interception, which is a weakness that also should be helped out by a defense that has really struggled forcing turnovers so far this year. Players often say the hardest thing to adjust coming off a bye week is the speed of the game. Therefore the Falcons make for one of the most dangers teams to play against coming off bye weeks, as they are highly predicated on speed on both sides of the ball. Although I am skeptical about how long Vick could continue to perform at this less, this does not appear to be a game in which he witnesses regression.

Martz is the worst thing that could have happened to this offense, as it has become a one dimensional offense lead by a mistake prone quarterback. Although the Lions rank as one of the more dangerous passing teams in football, it has not paid huge dividends as far as points and wins are concerned. With the way the Falcons have struggled defending the pass of late, Martz will surely be licking his chops with his pass happy offense. However, in my opinion, the Lions would be much better off utilizing a more balanced attack, as not only is Jones their best offensive player who is being under utilized, but the Falcons pass defense is better than what they have been recently showing, are a dangerous defense when playing teams that are utilizing a one dimensional passing offense. Expect Donnatel to throw a lot of different blitzes at Kitna. The Lions offensive line has struggled providing Kitna time in the pocket which has lead to a lot of sacks and forced interceptions. The Falcons defense has ball hawks and play makers that could really take advantage of mistake prone offenses. Even though the Lions offensive line has gotten much healthier coming off a bye week, they are putting lineman that have lacked playing time as a unit, which could provide problems for them when up against a blitz happy defense. The Lions also lack ideal depth at receiver to run such an offense. If Hall stays on Williams, the Lions will not have a reliable receiver to consistently go to in order to match points with the Falcons offense.

Cons:
The Falcons might come into this game overconfident and prone to a letdown spot after winning two games as underdogs. Linesmakers appear to be thinking along those lines, as they have held the line at an inviting number for the favorite. The Lions have been underachieving all year and should come into this game hungry for a win after two weeks off to think about their season. The Falcons have been struggling defending the pass, which is not a deficiency you want against a Martz run offense. Their pass defense has really struggled without Abraham putting pressure on the quarterback?s blind side. With the way the Lions have been moving the ball in the air, coupled with the way the Falcons have been allowing yards in the air, the backdoor cover is a concern in this game.

Conclusion:
Too many favorable advantages for the Falcons on offense to make me think they don?t cover this game. Their number one rushing attack should continue to have success against a Rogerless run defense. Their hot passing attack should also have success in the air against a pass defense that has really struggled all year. Kitna is too mistake prone, his line too inconsistent, his running game to little of a factor to make me think they keep this game within one possession. I will lay the five on the Falcons.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Dolphins @ Bears
Play: Dolphins +13.5
Comment:
I think that there are some favorable intangible variables favoring the Dolphins in which makes me think that they might keep this game closer than one would think. First of all, I think the timing of this game favors the Dolphins. I tend to like betting on vastly underachieving teams coming off bye weeks, as it gives them time to work out variables that have lead to their underachieving ways, and tends to break the flow or rhythm of the underachievement as well. This team did not quit on Saban last year, and when their season looked all but over, the Dolphins put forth the best second half run in football last year. Although one would think that Smith is a coach that would not allow a team to get caught looking ahead to the next week that is exactly what the Bears did three weeks ago against the Cardinals when they got caught looking ahead to the bye week. They are prone to another look ahead spot as they got their confidence and swagger back in last week?s performance and might be now concentrating on the much anticipated prime time game against the Giants next week. Don?t be surprised if the Bears fall victim of underestimating a dangerous team that has won only one game so far this year. I also think that linesmakers are consciously making the Bears really inviting in this game. They are coming off a home game in which they lead by 41 at halftime, and have not covered only one game this year. They are up against a warm weather team that comes into this game with a 0-7 clip against the spread this year, and yet they elect to keep this game within two touchdowns. Volume betting has poured on the Bears, yet there is downward pressure on the line. This is not public money keeping the line in tact.

Although it is tough for any offense to crack threw this Bears defense, the Dolphins might be able to do enough to keep this game close. This offense very much resembles the offense of the Cardinals, which has had the most success against the Bears defense so far this year. Much like the Cardinals, their offensive line is sub par and lacks cohesiveness. However, it is a big offensive line with man blocking skills that could open up enough against an undersized front seven and allow the Dolphins to keep this game two dimensional. It is also a line that went through a lot of changes during the bye week, has gotten progressively better, and has become groomed to be much better from here on out. Brown is a very similar runner to James and could grind out small yards at a time in order to keep the Bears defense off balanced. He should also benefit from the line changes and his size might be a challenge for the Bears small defense. Harrington much like Linehart is a west coast quarterback that is most effective utilizing a short passing game. He has receivers for this offense as well. Linehart picked apart this defense with a series of screen passes that allowed the Cardinals to march down the field at will. Expect Harrington to do the same with his big bodied receivers that could take advantage of the short passing game. Harrington gets the ball out much quicker than Cullpepper. This is a huge advantage when going up against a pass rush as dangerous as the one the Bears will bring to the table. The Dolphins also have an added dimension of a dangerous tight end in which the Cardinals do not have. Expect McMicheal to take advantage of some open seams over the middle of the field with the absence of Brown.

I think the Bears offense has been playing over their head most of the season, and are still vulnerable of Grossman laying eggs every now and then. Their offense has also benefited from great field position and easy scores thanks to their defense. In this game, they might have a more difficult of a time of moving the ball than people might think. The Dolphins have actually defended the pass well this year, and rank fourth in the league in this category. They have been able to accumulate this number without their best corner playing most of the games, which will not be the case on Sunday. The Dolphins pass rush has been solid, and have prevented teams from attacking the second level of their defense where they are most vulnerable. Daniels healthy should shore up this level of the field and prevent Berrian from breaking his coveted deep pass. The Dolphins defense has been plagued by an inability to create the turnover, even though they have been able to get a lot of opportunities to do so. I deem this variable as unsustainable. The Bears offense is highly predicated on a smash mouth running game that tries to grind out yards and set up the play action pass for Grossman. However the power running game might be hard to do against this Dolphins front which is stacked up the middle. The size and skill of Traylor and Holliday will make it hard for the Bears to utilize their power running game and interior run offense. Thomas has played well and will also force the Bears to use a perimeter running game where they are much less effective. This should take the Bears offense out of their element.

Cons:
Betting on a team that has yet to cover a point spread half way into the season has its risks. Betting on them when being up against a home team which has only lost won bet against the spread magnifies this risk. The Bears are less prone to a look ahead game while playing a home game where they have been very dangerous the last couple of years. The Dolphins are a poor cold weather team and will be out of their element in this game. Harrington has never played against the Bears well, and has been vulnerable to the interception against them. The Bears find all different ways to score, which makes the big spread seem less large. Grossman finally returned to form last week and got much needed confidence back. The Dolphins are not coming with value in this game, as this line should have been placed higher.

Conclusion:
The Dolphins are not nearly as bad as people think, and they should be motivated to prove this the case after having two weeks to prepare for an undefeated team. Expect them to try to employ the same game plan which the Cardinals ran effectively against the Bears. Expect it to be effective enough to keep this game within two touchdowns.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Vikings @ Niners
Play: Vikings -5
Comment:
Pros:
Both teams were downright embarrassed last week. The Niners went into Chicago coming off a bye week and found themselves down by 41 at halftime. The Vikings hosted Monday night football, and were blown out in a game which was suppose to be close. However, it is the team with the more upside potential that usually has the better ability to bounce back from embarrassing games such as this.

After last weeks offensive performance by the Vikings where they were not able to put up a single point at home, expect the Vikings to be primed to erase that effort with a dominating showing. Fortunately for them, they have a good defense that they can put forth such an effort. The Vikings offense is highly predicated on the run game and play action pass. It was no surprise that the Vikings offense faltered when they elected to try to turn the game into a shootout from the get-go. Expect the Vikings to come out this week trying to establish a running game early. Taylor has been their best offensive weapon so far year to date, and a running game allows them to better establish the most dominant left side of an offensive line in all of football. The Niners lack size and strength on that side of the line to contend with the superior line. They have been struggling defending power running games all year, and have not been able to stack the box as much as they like due to the mismatches that they have in their secondary. An effective running game early should allow Johnson more breathing room and allow him to be in the role where he tries not to lose the game rather than try to win it. This running game will also allow him to establish an effective play action pass, the type of pass where he is most effective using, which also happens to be a pass in which the Niners young and undisciplined secondary has struggled defending. When Johnson has time in the pocket, he is one of the more dangerous quarterbacks in football. He likes to survey the field and look for mismatches. He also likes to stare one side of the field and go the other way, uses the pump fake and other savvy techniques to decoy a secondary. All these techniques are highly predicated on having time in the pocket and also being up against a secondary that lacks experience and discipline. Fortunately for Johnson, all these variables will be working in his favor this week. The Niners pass rush has been dormant for weeks, and their cornerbacks have paid the price in coverage. Expect the Vikings to have deep threat abilities throughout this game with Williamson and Taylor. This appears to be an ideal spot for this offense to get back on track.

The Vikings defense is much better than the one they showed the world on Monday night, and were merely taken by surprised with the spread formation that the Tomlin 2 did not adjust for. The Niners would ideally like to try to replicate such a game plan, but do not have the receivers, offensive line and quarterback to do so. The Niners need to establish a running game early to take the pressure off of Smith and his offensive line and keep the offense two dimensional. Even with the way Gore has been playing, this will not be easy to do against the number 2 ranked run defense. The Niners offensive line should be overmatched in the trenches against the two massive tackles that the Vikings possess. This should force Gore to the outside where he will have to rely a lot on the blocking ability of his two tackles, both whom are banged up and have been struggling. Gore also relies a lot on after contact yards, something that will be hard to come by against a solid tackling team like the Vikings. This will force the Niners offense to rely more than they would like on the passing game. Smith has shown some signs of being a good quarterback, but these signs only showed up in close games and when he is being helped out by a solid running game- which is two variables that he might not have working in his favor for much of the game. Expect Tomlin to devise a game plan that could lead a young offense into mistakes. The Niners line has been struggling in pass protection and lack cohesiveness. Tomlin will be able to capitalize on this deficiency by with complex blitzing schemes in which he has been using well. Harris has been horrific in pass protection and the only reason he has a starting job is because of his first round contract. Expect the Vikings to be effective in putting pressure on that side of the field. Without Davis, the Niners passing game has been relying more on Bryant, whose effectiveness should be hindered by the solid play of Winfield. Expect the Vikings defense to also have a good shot of bouncing back from being embarrassed by Brady.

Cons:
Laying points on a road team playing on short rest is suspect. Books appear to be inviting people in taking the Vikings. The Niners play much better at home and have held their own against teams that are much better than they are playing here. The Vikings are not a team designed to blow people out. With the poor play of their pass defense, a backdoor cover has its risks. Robinson was severely missed last week, and appears to be out another week. This does not bode well for the Vikings offense, as receiver depth is something you want going up against the Niners thin secondary. The Vikings also have some key injuries on defense.

Conclusion:
The Vikings are a solid team that was embarrassed on national television in their last game. They are a team with a lot of talent and have something to prove, especially with playoff expectations now put on hold. All these variables make them a dangerous team. The Niners are a young team that are down and out and lack confidence coming into this game. If things turn bad early for them, this game could turn ugly. There is too much talent on the Vikings for them to contend with for the entire 60 minutes. Expect the Vikings to win by a couple of scores.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Cowboys @ Redskins
Play: Under 42
Comment:
Pros:
In my opinion, there has not been a more disappointing team in the NFC so far this year than the Redskins. Both their offense and defense have been playing at a level far below expectations. In my opinion, it is just a matter of time in which both units will improve. Deciphering what unit will more than likely improve in the short run could probably allow one to spot value in lines. In my opinion, it is the defense that is more than likely to regain its form. This will be the first time all season in which all eleven starters start for the Redskins. In other games, it was quite apparent that they missed Springs in the secondary and some key lineman to shore up their run defense. Expect a healthy Redskins defense to pose problems for this Cowboys offense playing in a hostile environment. Last week, Romo looked unstoppable. However, this was in large part thanks to his sub par line being able to provide him consistent time in the pocket against a constant four man rush by the Panthers. Expect Williams to devise defensive schemes that will be much harder for the Cowboys line and Romo to contend with. With both starting corners playing healthy, Williams will now have the luxury to blitz more, which has given the Cowboys problems in the past. Don?t expect Romo to look as comfortable in the pocket this week, while he more than likely won?t have the open targets that he was consistently provided last week as well. Springs makes for a good match up for Owens. He is a big, athletic corner that has the size and speed to cover Owens one on one. Rogers is also an very agile corner that matches up well with Glenn, while Springs will make for a good covering option on Whitten. These are all signs which point to a not terribly effective passing game for the Cowboys. Expect the Cowboys to run as much as possible in order to prevent the Redskins from constantly blitzing their inexperienced quarterback. Although the Redskins have struggled defending the run in a few games, playing with a healthy front seven will more than likely shore up their run defense. However, the combination of Jones and Barber is simply too good to completely shut down, which will probably result in a running game that is favorable to the under- good enough to keep the chains moving and eating up clock, but not good enough to break yards in chunks or set up many scoring opportunities.

Although the Redskins offense is more than likely going to get better from here on out, this is not a good game for them to prove this to be the case. Moss will be a huge loss in the passing game, as his constant double coverage attention allowed both the other two complimentary receivers, Randel El and Lloyd to make things happen against single coverage. Moss was their best deep threat as well as third down threat, and his style posed the biggest problems for the Cowboys corners who have constantly struggled covering the smaller and faster receivers that they have been up against. Both Randel El and Lloyd are both more effective in the slot and when not getting much attention in coverage. Expect them to have problems getting anything going when being the focal point of the passing game. The injury to Patten will also more than likely keep him from playing in this game, which makes the depth at receiver suspect. Brunel has really struggled with his consistency and effectiveness, and missing two key components in the passing game will certainly not help matters for him. Brunel will be in dire need of an effective running game to keep the solid Cowboys pressure from teeing off on him. He is much more effective rolling out of the pocket and using the play action pass, two variables that are much less effective when not having a running game that is working. Although a health Portis is a lot to contend with, the Cowboys have had one of the best run defenses in football this year, and have faced their fair share of solid running backs. Expect them to be good enough to prevent Portis from putting forth a dominating game and breaking big plays. However, the Redskins will know that they need to stay committed to the running game if they want to win this game. This will more than likely lead to a lot of runs that grind out yards and keep the clock moving. Without Moss in the lineup, Brunnell?s problems with his accuracy, and the Cowboys solid pass rush will lead to a lot of shorting timing routes that allow the Redskins to establish a rhythm. This is also the type of passing game that is most favorable for under bettors.

Cons:
Both offenses can be explosive and have a lot of big time players. Romo is an upgrade at the quarterback spot when playing against highly aggressive defenses that like to blitz a lot. His added mobility could provide him time in the pocket and find one on one mismatch downfield if the Redskins constantly blitz. The Cowboys offense looked really good last week and has the personnel to be one of the most potent red zone offenses in football. Don?t expect the Redskins defense to consistently stop the Cowboys inside the red zone. The Redskins still have a lot of playmakers on offense even without Moss. All these playmakers have big play ability and could put up points really fast. Brunell still has several passing options in the passing game to put forth a solid game. Expect the Redskins offense to come out well prepared after having two weeks to work out their new system and work out the problems that have not worked so far year to date. The Redskins have their back against the wall in this game. This usually makes teams more aggressive with their offense and takes more chances. Don?t be surprised of the Redskins constantly throw downfield in hopes to make things happen. This does not bode well for the under, as the Cowboys have struggled defending this pass all year.

Conclusion:
This is a heated rivalry game. These types of games usually to lead to physical battles that brings out a lot of intensity out of defenses. The public might be overestimating Romo and the Cowboys offense due to the performance they put forth last week. They are also might be underestimating a Redskins defense who will be playing with all their starters for the first time this year. This leads me to believe that this game might provide regression from both units. Without Moss, the Redskins offense will struggle to move the ball downfield. This will force them simplify their playbook and chip away on the field. The total is set high enough for me to take my chances on the under and the favorable variables in which it provides.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Broncos @ Steelers
Play: Steelers -2.5
Comment:
Pros:
I can not think of a more dangerous team to play this week than the Steelers. A team that is the defending world champs who have been one of the best home teams in football, have their season on the line after coming off a loss that was inexcusable. Although they have a difficult opponent that they have to take their frustrations out on, it is an opponent that they match up well against. There is nothing wrong with the Steelers defense, and they are coming off a dominant performance against the Raiders. They have not been able to put forth their best effort this year in large put due to Palamula playing hurt at the beginning of the year, and them missing Porter for a couple of games. But there is only one type of offense that could give them problems- an offense that could spread out the field with a passing game. This is simply not the case with the Denver Broncos, who has had only one real passing threat all year. Expect the Broncos offense to have the same problems that they had last year against the Steelers in the AFC championship game. it is an offense that is highly predicated on the running game, as the passing game is highly dependent on the play action and Plummer being able to role out the pocket- two variables that often struggle without a solid running game taking place. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Steelers have one of the best run defenses in football which will make it hard for the Broncos to get anything going on the ground. The Broncos like to use the perimeter running game and the athleticism of their offensive line and running back to attack opposing defenses. This will be hard to do against the Steelers 3-4 defense that is very fast and aggressive. The Broncos zone blocking schemes have had problems in the past against this type of 3-4 defense, as the linebackers are hard to contend with. Although the Steelers have a swarming and aggressive front seven, they are very well coached and disciplined, which is something the zone blocking scheme will not be able to take advantage of. Although Tatum Bell is listed as probable, it looks more and more that he will not play in this game, and even if he does, his production and effectiveness will be limited by his two turf toes. With the lack of running game, there will be a lot of pressure put on Plummer and an anemic passing game to make things happen. It is no surprise that Plummer struggled against the Steelers last year. Their 3-4 defense maximized the effectiveness of their outside linebackers and sealed the perimeter, forcing Plummer to become a pocket passer that he is horrible in doing. Expect them to do the same this week with Porter, who has a big advantage attacking Plumemr?s blind side due to the absence of the Broncos starting left tackle Lepis. The Broncos lack dangerous receivers, which will also allow Le Beau to send a lot of blitzers at Plummer to force him into making mistakes that he has been accustomed to when under constant pressure. This Broncos offense should struggle running and passing the ball in this game.

Although the Steelers offense is also an offense that is highly predicated on the running game, and they are also up against one of the most stout run defenses in the league, I feel that they not only match up better in the running game, but also appear to have much better match ups in the passing game. Expect Ben to come out as determined as ever in putting up a solid performance, as he once again has his back against the wall in this game, much similar to the game against the Chiefs a few weeks ago. Last week the Colts were able to expose the weakness in the Broncos passing game by constantly attacking Williams side. This is the exact same philosophy in which the Steelers used in last year?s AFC championship game, and all the signs points to them doing the same thing in this game. Expect the Steelers to spread out the field with a lot of multiple receiver sets and having Ben line up in the shotgun formation. This will better allow him to survey the field and provide him time in the pocket. The Broncos pass rush has really been dormant, and with their best pass rusher gone for the season, they have been forced to generate pressure using blitzing schemes that have made them vulnerable in coverage. Wilson provided Williams a difficult match up last year against his zone coverage, which should allow him to be a valuable first level target. Moss should provide a difficult match up for Foxworth in the slot, while with the spread formation; Miller will be better able to find seams over the middle. Expect Ben to be able to move the ball with some effectiveness even if the running game struggles. Expect Parker to do a lot of running when the Steelers are lined up in the multiple receiver sets in order to get one of the linebackers off the field. He has the speed to attack the perimeter of the Broncos run defense and could break one on any play. With Warren playing banged up, the interior run defense is also vulnerable, and the Colts running game showed they could move the ball well when running on spread formations. The Steelers also have the ability to substitute a lot of screen passes for the running game, and should use Parker a lot in the passing game this week.

Sharp play? This appears to be a game in which the volume of bets is inversely related to the line movement. The public has been pounding the Broncos all week, yet the line continues to move the other way. It also broke a key number in some places at 3, which clearly shows that linesmakers are putting a face to the bet in this game.

Cons:
Laying points on a team that has been vastly underachieving does have its risks. This team is lacking confidence and potentially motivation to play with their playoff hopes all but gone. Their leader has been their own worst enemy and has been taking one step forward and two steps back all year. Things might not be much easier for him this week against a tough defense. The Broncos have been playing better football and appear to be better coached. Their passing game opened up last week, which might be a sign of things to come. This does not bode well for a defense that has been vulnerable against the pass this year.

Conclusion:
The Steelers are the most desperate team in the league right now, and have a lot of underachieving talent. This makes them a dangerous team to play right now, especially if you are a team that is coming off a very emotional last second loss and had to travel across the country to play them. Expect the defending world champs to take their frustrations out on the Broncos and keep their slim playoff chances alive.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Browns @ Chargers
Play: Under 42
Comment:
Pros:
Although the Chargers have proved more than capable of getting it done via the passing game, expect them to revert back to a MartyBall type playbook in this game as they have been known to employ such a playbook when playing against other teams whose offense is not known to put up a lot of points. After finally getting Tomlinson to come alive in the running game last week, expect the Chargers to go right back at him early and often to try to soften the Browns defense and keep their linebackers from blitzing Rivers. With the way the Browns interior run defense has been struggling of late, expect the Chargers to try to grind out yards with Tomlinson and Turner. This type of running game will eat up a lot of clock and less likely to break the big game. The Browns running game usually struggles later in the game after being worn down, so the Chargers will have to be committed to the running game throughout if they want to have the most success against this defense. The Browns bend don?t break pass defense has forced teams to have to chip away yards instead of getting them in big chunks. This is the main reason in which they rank fifth in the league in this category. Cromell has been giving the opposing quarterbacks a lot of different looks that have forced them to misread coverage?s and force turnovers. This will only encourage Marty to use the passing game as a complimentary focal point to their running game. By taking away the deep passes, it will also force Rivers to use a lot of timing routes that get the ball out quickly and eat up a lot of clock. The Browns are injured at the cornerback spot and are most vulnerable against teams that have a lot of depth at receiver and are able to spread out the ball. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they are heavily dependent on giving the ball to their tight end and running backs in the passing game, and lack the quality and depth at the receiver spot to take advantage of this deficiency. If the Chargers are able to get up early while the Browns are not able to respond, expect the Chargers to also be able to eat up clock in the second half the game by keeping the chains moving with their running game.

With the Browns knowing that they will not win this game if they get into a shootout and knowing that they win their games with their defense, expect the Browns offensive game plan to be not to create mistakes and keep the Chargers offense off the field. Expect them to try to keep the Chargers pass rush off of Frye early by establishing a running game. Although the Browns running game is one of the most anemic in the league while the Chargers have one of the better run defenses in football, don?t be surprised if the Browns have some success on the ground and are able to keep the chains moving a bit in their drives. Without Merriman and Phillips at the linebacker spot, the Browns will be better able to employ the off tackle run. In last weeks win, the Browns were committed to the run throughout the game and established a season high in carries. Expect them to continue to run the ball throughout this game even if it is not effective early. Although the Chargers defense is most vulnerable defending the pass, the Browns lack the passing game to expose this weakness. Without an effective first level passing game, the Chargers secondary will be able to better prepare for the deep passes in which Frye heavily relies on to move the chains. The Browns offensive line has struggled giving him time in the pocket, while even without Merriman, the Chargers have a solid pass rush that could prevent Frye from having a lot of time in the pocket to pick apart their secondary. Expect the Browns passing game to be highly predicated on the tight end with short passes over the middle. With Winslow playing with an ailing knee injury, his deep threat ability will be neutralized, which will force the Browns to have to utilize a more conservative game plan. The Chargers red zone defense is solid and matches up well against the Browns offense. This leads me to believe that the Browns will not be able to get into the end zone many times, if any.

Cons:
The Chargers offense has been one of the hottest in the league, and nearly impossible to stop with the current level of play that Rivers has been showing. The Chargers have a favorable match up in the running game- maybe to favorable, as they might be able to break some big plays with Tomlinson. This also might force the Browns to stack the box with 8, allowing mismatches downfield for Rivers to take advantage of. It will also set up the play action pass in which Rivers has been utilizing effectively. The Browns offense finally came alive last week. Frye looked sharp and efficient, and could throw a deep ball. This might be trouble for a Chargers secondary that has really been having problems stopping the third level passing game in which opponents been attempting against them. Their safeties have also been struggling in coverage, which is not something you want against a team that uses multiple tight end sets in their passing downs. The Browns could create some mismatches if they use their tight ends effectively.

Conclusion:
Simply put, this is too many points to give in a game where both teams will try to run as much as possible. It is also too many points to give in a game which one team might struggle reaching the double digit point in points. Expect the Chargers to be able to establish a comfortable lead and eat up a lot of clock in the second half. Frye has proven to be not an effective quarterback running a one dimensional offense. This should prevent the Browns from doing their part in sending the total over the mark.

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Colts @ Patriots
Play: Colts +1
Comment:
Pros:
Unlike last week, the Patriots will not have the luxury of trying to turn this game into a shootout, as that is the last thing you want to do against this Colts offense. Last year, the Colts proved to the Patriots that you need more than a game plan to beat this offense; you also need the players- which are something the Patriots defense might not have enough of to beat Manning. Expect the Colts to try to spread the field with as many receiving options as possible to take advantage of the lack of coverage depth the Patriots have. Last week the Colts passing game was able to be dominant even with half the field being shut out by Bailey. Expect Manning?s favorite receiver to be more of a help this week, as the Patriots lack an ideal coverage cornerback to consistently stay with him. This will more than likely force the Patriots to have to double him with a safety over the top to take out the deep play. However, this with open up the underneath slant which has always ran effectively, including against the Patriots. This will force Samuel into a lot of single coverage against Wayne, who has been killing single coverage all year, and should pose match up problems for Samuel. Samuel lacks the speed to contend with Wayne in single coverage, which will force him to play a cushion and also open up the underneath route. The Colts will also attack the aging and slow Patriots linebackers who will have match up problems in coverage against Clark and the Colts slot receiver. This will allow Manning to have options all over the field that will be able to create mismatches. In the past, the Patriots elected to rush 3 or 4 men against Manning and prevent him from making the deep pass. Over the years, Manning has been able to overcome this strategy, and exposed the flaws it creates last year against the Patriots. The Chargers and Steelers both proved that that best antidote that you need to beat Manning is to have fast and athletic blitzing linebackers to create point of attack pressure on Mannings, which is a variable the Patriots do not posses. The Colts showed that they could open up the running game with using the spread formation last week against one of the best run defenses in football. Addai has really been running well of late and has provided the Colts a change of pace running game that they could turn too. Even though the Patriots have been solid against run, the Colts should be able to run enough to keep their defense honest. This holds especially true with Seymour having to play hurt. Expect the Colts to once again put up a lot of points against a solid defense on the road.

Although there is not much to like when the Colts are on defense, there wasn?t much to like last week either. However, if the Patriots elect to turn this game into a shootout, they might be getting themselves in trouble as the Colts bring and underrated pass defense to the table. Although part of the reason that they are ranked number three in the league defending the pass is because teams have constantly run against them, their pass defense does not get the credit it warrants, and should get better from here on out as their pass rush has been getting healthier and has been underachieving all year. Even if last week proved otherwise, the Patriots do not have ideal receiving personnel to play shootouts, and the Colts corners actually match up well against them. The Patriots tackles have also been having problems in pass protection, which could create problems against he speed rushers in which the Colts have coming from the edges. Expect the Colts to be extra aggressive with blitzing schemes in order to try to create turnovers. The Patriots best bet is to run as much as possible and keep Manning off the field. However, last week, the Broncos showed doing that effectively doesn?t always result in wins. There is no denying the Patriots will be able to score in this game, but expecting them to keep up with the Colts offense might be easier said than done, as Manning has many more weapons to work with compared to Brady.

Cons:
The Colts are not a cold weather team and are much less dangerous playing on grass. Manning has had most troubles against 3-4 defenses, and Billicek has been able to create game plans that have given him problems in the past. The Patriots will be motivated to prevent the deep play and force Manning to have to chip away at the field. This increases the probably of making mistakes on offense. Both teams should be able to move the ball well. However, one could easily argue that the Patriots have a much better chance of being able to finish off their drives, as the Patriots red zone defense has been one of the best for years now. The Colts defense is injured and struggling. The Patriots could really wear them down by establishing a run game that will also keep Manning off the field. The Patriots passing game also came alive last week, and has been getting progressively better from week one. This will allow them to establish a better balanced offense compared to the Colts.

Conclusion:
Until a team proves that the Colts could be beaten, I will consider them the hardest team in football to beat, therefore making them a compelling bet whenever they could get points. The public might be overestimating the Patriots potential with the showing they put forth last Monday night. In reality, they have a sub par pass defense that should be overmatched by the Colts passing game. They also possess receivers that do not warrant starting jobs in the NFL that should make it hard for even Brady to consistently mask this deficiency. In a game that appears to be high scoring, I will gladly take the team with the better passing offense and pass defense. That team is the Colts.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Thanks for the info BuffetGambler

Best of luck tomorrow

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Thanks BG, appreciate the time you put into these

Terry Glenn hurt himself a bit late in the week and is questionable also, perhaps helping that Skins/Dallas under.

Can Colts win SU as a road dog 2 weeks in a row? Should be a great game to watch regardless, I prefer the over 48 to a side.

GL today

 

[kelp0027]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

super nice; as usual; buffet..!!

i love the skins under today

gl

:smokesmal

 

[ohmigods]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

GL BG
like alot of your plays

 

[mgmhatesme]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

BG,

I like the Dolphins play and it is one of 2 wagers I am considering adding to my card today (Bucs the other). The Dolphins defense should be able to do a good job against the Bears offense, but I worry about the Fins OL protecting Harrington. Heh the Fins only need to do 4 things: 1) Dont allow the deep pass to Berrian; 2) dont allow Bears defensive scores; 3) dont allow big Special Teams returns/scores; 4) and don't give Bears turnovers that result in great field position. Easy, right? Perhaps not all that easy, but possible, and if so this game stayes within the number.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

buffettgambler,

Like always, your write-ups are fantastic...

Lets win today baby! :+music1-6

 

[Fullboat]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

Hey Buff - Long time, no post for me....I've had a tough season so far. How about yourself? I've been so busy working, that I haven't had time to post.....just read most of the time. I like your card today, but I just can't bring myself to bet with the Fins...they've burnt me one too many times this year.....even in my suicide pool against the abysmal Packers. Also, it's tough betting against Belichek (sp) in big games. You know he will have his defense ready to handle Manning's reads and audibles. The last time they played, NE rarely showed setup in the defense they actually played each play. That really gave Peyton a tough time calling plays at the line.

Anyway, just wanted to say hello and Good Luck.

- FB

 

[THE SHRINK]

Re: NFL Week 9: Sunday's Plays

buffettgambler,

Nice call on the BIG GAME of the day with them Colts...

Will you have a write-up for tonight's game?