SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

THE SHRINK · Nov 6, 2006

I beleve JIM WEBB will upset (though a mild one) and defeat the incumbent/incompetent George Allen here in Virginia when all the votes are counted on Tuesday night...:+music1-6

THE SHRINK

Lawrence · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

It's a dead heat at 49% according to the latest poll...going to be close

BEANTOWNJIM · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

SHRINK IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE PROBLEMS HERE IN MASSACHUSETTS WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF ELECTING OUR FIRST NIGERIAN GOVERNOR AND HES A DEMOCRAT:finger004 WWW.DEVALPATRICK.COM AND HE IS A GOOD FRIEND OF MY OLD BUDDIE JESSE JACKSON.HOW THE TIMES ARE CHANGING TRUST ME FOLKS PRETTY SOON THE CAUCASIAN MALE WILL BE A MINORITY

JTGAMBLE · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

where do we wager on it

THE SHRINK · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

JTGAMBLE said:
where do we wager on it

I do recommend betting on Webb with POSITIVE juice and I believe WSEX offers it...

wrigley · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

THE SHRINK said:
I do recommend betting on Webb with POSITIVE juice and I believe WSEX offers it...

George Allen does not think you should be allowed to make this wager.

Shrink Virginia ,Tennessee and Missouri are 3 key states the Dems need to take the senate from the GOP vote early and often GOP known for having the dead vote during elections.

THE SHRINK · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Lawrence said:
It's a dead heat at 49% according to the latest poll...going to be close

Latest Polls below show ALLEN ahead by as many as 3 % points, but I have other sources..

RealClearPolitics

kinosh · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

BEANTOWNJIM said:
SHRINK IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE PROBLEMS HERE IN MASSACHUSETTS WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF ELECTING OUR FIRST NIGERIAN GOVERNOR AND HES A DEMOCRAT:finger004 WWW.DEVALPATRICK.COM AND HE IS A GOOD FRIEND OF MY OLD BUDDIE JESSE JACKSON.HOW THE TIMES ARE CHANGING TRUST ME FOLKS PRETTY SOON THE CAUCASIAN MALE WILL BE A MINORITY

Racist remarks have no place in these forums.

THE SHRINK · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

kinosh said:
Racist remarks have no place in these forums.

agreed...

dirty · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td><table align="center" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" align="center">Virginia Senate Race

</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="center">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Email This Page to a Friend</td></tr><tr><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center" width="599"><table bordercolor="#ffffff" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="left" valign="top" width="277"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="270"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="table_header" align="center" height="20" valign="top">Candidates</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" height="5">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center" valign="top">

George Allen (R)*
Bio | Campaign Site
</td><td align="center" valign="top">

James Webb (D)
Bio | Campaign Site</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="left" valign="top" width="100%"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="table_header" align="center" height="20">RealClearPolitics Snapshot</td></tr><tr><td align="left"> RCP Average: Webb + 1.5% | RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
Competitve House Races: VA-2
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td align="center"><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/PriceFeed/affiliate.jsp?zoneid=7152&rcp=true&textcolor=000000&id=317587&id=317588&showLast=true&bgcolor=DDDDDD&showsymbols=true" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" frameborder="0" height="85" scrolling="no" width="312"></iframe>
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center"><table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" bordercolor="#ffffff" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="596"><tbody><tr><td bordercolor="#000000"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Polling Data</td></tr><tr><td align="center"><table class="poll_table" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">Poll</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="80">Date</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="50">Sample</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Allen (R)*</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Webb (D)</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Undecided</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">Spread</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffff00">RCP Average</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">11/01 - 11/05</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">-</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">46.8</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">48.3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">3.3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">Webb +1.5</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/03 - 11/05</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">741 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">52</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +8.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Mason-Dixon</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/01 - 11/03</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">625 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +1.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">USA Today/Gallup</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/01 - 11/03</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">916 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/02 - 11/02</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Tie</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="center">See All Virginia Senate Race Polling Data</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr><td align="center"><table bordercolor="#ffffff" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="599"><tbody><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="top" width="345"><table valign="top" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="table_header" align="center" height="20">RealClearPolitics Analysis</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" align="center">

(November 3) Four new polls since the Rasmussen 5 point shocker from Sunday night. One has Webb up 4, one has Allen up 3 and another Webb up 1pt, and then today Rasmussen Reports which has Allen and Webb tied at 49%. Allen?s hope is that Webb peaked too soon and maybe the John Kerry fiasco Tuesday and Wednesday convinced enough Republican-leaning voters, who were entertaining Webb, come back home to Allen. But, as long as Allen is closer to 45% rather than 50% in the RCP Average, Webb probably has the edge. This is a race where Kerry could make a difference.

(October 30) Rasmussen has just released what is a little bit of a shocker poll showing George Allen dropping seven points in 5 days. If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling -- George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #7 on RCP's most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend produced outlier.

(October 24) Today?s Mason-Dixon poll contains good and bad news for Senator Allen. The good news is he has picked up four points from Mason-Dixon?s previous poll and now leads 47% - 43%. The bad news is he can?t seem to shake Jim Webb.

It?s clear from looking at a graph of the RCP Average that he stopped the ?Macaca? bleeding in the first week of September and has maintained a pretty consistent 3-5 point lead ever since, however it is also evident from looking at the graph that the overall tightening in this race has not been a temporary phenomena. A 3 point lead or more in the RCP Average should be all the cushion Allen will need on Election Day, but a last minute close by Webb could make this a very long election night for Allen.

(September 25) The "Macaca" incident has in hindsight completely changed the dynamic of this race in a way we didn't anticipate at the time. Some of this is the fault of the Allen campaign and how they managed the damage control, but much of it is a function that "Macaca" acquired the legs it had because of the fodder in George Allen's background on race. As much as we were right in identifying James Webb as a potential problem for Allen back in February, we were flat out wrong as to the effect of "Macaca" this August.

Bottom line, George Allen is in trouble. And if these next round of polls show this contest tied or Webb ahead, Allen will be in big, big trouble. This is not to say that this race should be chalked up to the Democrats, only that there is a serious, potential upset brewing in Virginia.

However, before one gets too caught up in the anti-George Allen fever of the day, Senator Allen has some powerful factors working in his favor. He has a lot of money, he is running in a red state, and Allen is a very attractive and likable candidate......usually. He won his Senate seat in 2000, 52% - 48% over a tough conservative Democrat in Chuck Robb, when most other close 2000 Senate races were going to the Democrats. But the biggest ally George Allen has, is he still has six weeks to get back on track. The Allen campaign would be smart to start unloading on Jim Webb today, because the longer this race stays tied or very close, the higher the odds climb that Webb pulls off the big upset.

(August 21) The SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls, post the Macaca incident with the Webb volunteer show a significant tightening in the race, however we feel this is more a temporary blip due to the intensely negative coverage Allen received following his Macaca remarks. The SurveyUSA poll which shows a 3 point race, suggests there has been a 40 point swing among younger voters towards the Democrat Webb. Let?s just say we are highly skeptical of any 40 point swing.

In some ways the wake up call is good news for Allen, as one of Webb?s chances for puling off the upset depended on Allen?s complacency and lack of focus providing Webb an opportunity to sneak up on the incumbent who might have had his eye more on ?08 rather than taking care of ?06 business at home. These polls should remove any complacency the Allen campaign may have had towards Webb's chances, and a focused and well funded George Allen will be very, very hard to beat in November.

</td></tr></tbody></table> </td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="top"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Previous Election Results</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" align="center">

Senate
2000: Allen 52, Robb 48
1996: J. Warner 52, M. Warner 47
President
2004: Bush 54, Kerry 45
2000: Bush 52, Gore 44
1996: Dole 47, Clinton 45

</td></tr></tbody></table> <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Demographics</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" align="center">

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Links for More Information</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" align="center">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr><td align="left" width="596"><table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="table_header" align="left" height="20">Recent Commentary & News Stories</td></tr><tr><td>- Balance and Bias on the Political Beat - Deborah Howell, Washington Post
- VA: Allen Looks To Rally His Base - Richmond Times-Dispatch
- VA: Why Virginia Holds Casting Vote in Bitter Fight - Times of London
- VA: Webb Appeals for Southwest Va. Votes - Richmond Times-Dispatch
- VA: Allen and Webb Stump to Attract Black Voters - Richmond Times-Dispatch
</td></tr><tr><td align="center">See All Virginia Senate Race Commentary & News Stories</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="5"> </td></tr><tr><td><table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" bordercolor="#ffffff" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="596"><tbody><tr><td bordercolor="#000000"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Polling Data</td></tr><tr><td align="center"><table class="poll_table" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">Poll</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="80">Date</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="50">Sample</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Allen (R)*</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Webb (D)</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Undecided</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">Spread</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffff00">RCP Average</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">11/01 - 11/05</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">-</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">46.8</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">48.3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">3.3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">Webb +1.5</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">11/03 - 11/05</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">741 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">52</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">1</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">Webb +8.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">Mason-Dixon</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">11/01 - 11/03</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">625 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">Webb +1.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">USA Today/Gallup</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">11/01 - 11/03</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">916 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">11/02 - 11/02</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">1</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc">Tie</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Reuters/Zogby</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/24 - 10/31</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">600 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +1.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/29 - 10/29</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">51</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +5.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Garin Hart Yang (D)</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/26 - 10/29</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">811 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">--</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +4.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">CNN</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/26 - 10/29</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">597 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +4.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Roanoke College</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/22 - 10/29</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">453 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">42</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Zogby Interactive*</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/23 - 10/27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">51</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">--</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +4.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/24 - 10/24</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">2</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +2.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/22 - 10/24</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">613 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">LA Times/Bloomberg</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/20 - 10/23</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">385 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">6</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Mason-Dixon</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/17 - 10/19</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">625 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">8</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +4.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Zogby Interactive *</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/10 - 10/16</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1017 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">--</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/12 - 10/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Washington Post</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10/10 - 10/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1004 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">2</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +2.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Reuters/Zogby</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/25 - 10/02</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">601 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">37</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">13</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +11.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/28 - 10/01</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">750 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +6.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">USA Today/Gallup</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/27 - 10/01</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">597 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/26 - 09/28</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">612 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +6.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Mason-Dixon</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/23 - 09/27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">625 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Tie</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/24 - 09/26</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">628 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +5.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Zogby Interactive*</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/19 - 09/25</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">960 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">44</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +5.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/12 - 09/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +7.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/10 - 09/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">467 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Mason-Dixon</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">09/05 - 09/07</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">625 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">42</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +4.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Zogby Interactive*</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">08/29 - 09/05</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">n/a</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">43</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +7.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Zogby Interactive*</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">08/15 - 08/21</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">n/a</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Webb +1.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">08/18 - 08/20</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">576 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +3.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">08/16 - 08/16</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">42</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +5.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Mason-Dixon</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">07/25 - 07/27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">625 RV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">48</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">32</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">20</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +16.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">07/18 - 07/18</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">39</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">8</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +11.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Zogby</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">07/12 - 07/15</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">501 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">47</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">37</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">15</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +10.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">SurveyUSA</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">06/25 - 06/27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">533 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">56</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">37</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +19.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Benenson Strategy (D)</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">06/22 - 06/27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">601 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">39</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">N/A</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +7.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">06/14 - 06/14</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">51</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">41</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">6</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +10.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">04/11 - 04/11</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">50</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">30</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +20.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">03/15 - 03/15</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">54</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">30</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">8</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +24.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">02/08 - 02/08</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">49</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">37</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +12.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12/07 - 12/07</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">500 LV</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">57</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">26</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">Allen +31.0</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

wrigley · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Also remember if you are refused the right to vote call 1-888-Dem vote

Spread the Word: 1-888- DEM-VOTE

Make sure everyone you know has the phone number for Democratic voter assistance.
Through Election Day, voters may call our voting rights hotline 1-888-DEM-VOTE. Operated in both English and Spanish, the hotline provides callers with information about their poll locations, enables them to report complaints they have before or on Election Day, and connects them to a designated DNC or State Democratic Party Election Protection operation if needed.
This is the number you call when a Republican is refusing to give registered Democrats provisional ballots.
This is the number you call when you need to know the address of your polling location.
This is the number you call when an electronic voting machine malfunctions.
This is the number you call when you see Republicans engaging in voter intimidation.

(Real life examples of voter intimidation: 1. Challenges and threats against individual voters at the polls by armed private guards, off-duty law enforcement officers, local creditors, fake poll monitors, and poll workers and managers.
2. Signs posted at the polling place warning of penalties for "voter fraud" or "non-citizen" voting, or illegally urging support for a candidate.
3. Voters being forced to prove U.S. citizenship before being allowed to vote.

This is the number you call when you have any questions whatsoever on Election Day.

Whoson1st · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

don't know what all the above says--but as a gambler to vote for Allen is a vote against online wagering. Book it! Please vote for Webb!

TONY MONTANA · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

i am taking out allens vote myself!! cancel his vote right now!!:finger004

pioneer · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by BEANTOWNJIM

SHRINK IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE PROBLEMS HERE IN MASSACHUSETTS WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF ELECTING OUR FIRST NIGERIAN GOVERNOR AND HES A DEMOCRAT:finger004 WWW.DEVALPATRICK.COM AND HE IS A GOOD FRIEND OF MY OLD BUDDIE JESSE JACKSON.HOW THE TIMES ARE CHANGING TRUST ME FOLKS PRETTY SOON THE CAUCASIAN MALE WILL BE A MINORITY
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Racist remarks have no place in these forums.

I agree, but could you please point out those "racist remarks"?

kinosh · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

pioneer said:
Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by BEANTOWNJIM
SHRINK IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE PROBLEMS HERE IN MASSACHUSETTS WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF ELECTING OUR FIRST NIGERIAN GOVERNOR AND HES A DEMOCRAT:finger004 WWW.DEVALPATRICK.COM AND HE IS A GOOD FRIEND OF MY OLD BUDDIE JESSE JACKSON.HOW THE TIMES ARE CHANGING TRUST ME FOLKS PRETTY SOON THE CAUCASIAN MALE WILL BE A MINORITY

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Racist remarks have no place in these forums.

I agree, but could you please point out those "racist remarks"?

If you had half a brain, you would be able to figure it out.

sdheflin · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

I must have less than half a brain.

pioneer · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

kinosh said:
If you had half a brain, you would be able to figure it out.

If I could figure it out, why would I ask the question? It's not a trick question, so just go ahead and point out the racist comments.

THE SHRINK · Nov 6, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

I'll take a stab...

Perhaps some "Black" people might be OFFENDED by labeling them as "NIGERIAN?"

dirty · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

wrigley said:
Also remember if you are refused the right to vote call 1-888-Dem vote

Spread the Word: 1-888- DEM-VOTE

Make sure everyone you know has the phone number for Democratic voter assistance.
Through Election Day, voters may call our voting rights hotline 1-888-DEM-VOTE. Operated in both English and Spanish, the hotline provides callers with information about their poll locations, enables them to report complaints they have before or on Election Day, and connects them to a designated DNC or State Democratic Party Election Protection operation if needed.
This is the number you call when a Republican is refusing to give registered Democrats provisional ballots.
This is the number you call when you need to know the address of your polling location.
This is the number you call when an electronic voting machine malfunctions.
This is the number you call when you see Republicans engaging in voter intimidation.
(Real life examples of voter intimidation: 1. Challenges and threats against individual voters at the polls by armed private guards, off-duty law enforcement officers, local creditors, fake poll monitors, and poll workers and managers.
2. Signs posted at the polling place warning of penalties for "voter fraud" or "non-citizen" voting, or illegally urging support for a candidate.
3. Voters being forced to prove U.S. citizenship before being allowed to vote.

This is the number you call when you have any questions whatsoever on Election Day.

Wrigs...No need to post this... I can post many sites that claim Demos do the same thing.... it helps noone... Blaming the othe side is Childish and Accomplishes nothing..... This BS is a he said/she said and there is plenty of BS from both sides..... the Angel Tactic from either side has worn off years ago :thumbsup

kelp0027 · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

..

..george allen is a redneck; in a redneck state..er; commonwealth..>>!!

allen did defeat ollie; this dem punk is ez..!!

jmho

it's money that matters; in tha' u.s.a. !!!

jmho

gl

Doc Mercer · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Allen will spend all day stuffing dead animal heads in the mailboxes of
black voters

pioneer · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

THE SHRINK said:
I'll take a stab...

Perhaps some "Black" people might be OFFENDED by labeling them as "NIGERIAN?"

If the Democratic candidate for Governor of the State(or is it too a "Commonwealth"?) of Massachusetts is from Nigeria as the poster BeantownJim alleges, then it is a factual statement and NOT a racist remark.

Likewise, if he is NOT from Nigeria, it is an ignorant, untrue statement, the kind we have come to expect from the poster, BeantownJim, but nevertheless, NOT a racist statement.

But nice try, Shrink, at least you had the courage to try to answer my innocuous question unlike Kinosh who employed the common liberal tactic of making baseless accusations and then running when confronted.

kinosh · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Pioneer,

You are quite ignorant. If you read the post, Jim said being Nigerian is a "problem," followed by the "Causasian male will be a minority." You, sir, are trying to elevate yourself by taking statements out of context. Being Nigerian is a fact. Calling Nigerians a "problem" is an opinion. Maybe you ought to go back to school and learn to read.

TONY MONTANA · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

NOT THAT I WANT TO GET INTO THIS!! HOWEVER BTJ CALLS ALL BLACK PEOPLE NIGERIANS!!

AND THATS A FACT!! NOT THAT I CARE!!:whatever:

TONY MONTANA · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

WEBB GOT MY VOTE AT 745AM!!

THE MAIN REASON!! WE NEED A CHANGE AND A BALANCED GOVERNMENT!!

THE GAMBLING ISSUE!!

AND WEBB IS ACTUALLY A VET!!! SOMETHING ALLEN AND BUSH AVOIDED DURING THE VIETNAM WAR!!

STAY THE COURSE SOUNDS BETTER WHEN IT COMES FROM A GUY WHO ACTUALLY KNOWS WHAT THE FUCK HE'S TALKING ABOUT!! IMO!!

kinosh · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

You're smart, Tony, for not wanting to get involved. I shouldn't be arguing with imbiciles either.

ZZ CREAM · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Allen wins with a wink because his followers like his macaca agenda, nooses and all!

THE SHRINK · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

ZZ Cream,

Allen is going DOWN and I would bet on it..

On my way to assist now too...:dancefool

pioneer · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

kinosh said:
Pioneer,

You are quite ignorant. If you read the post, Jim said being Nigerian is a "problem," followed by the "Causasian male will be a minority." You, sir, are trying to elevate yourself by taking statements out of context. Being Nigerian is a fact. Calling Nigerians a "problem" is an opinion. Maybe you ought to go back to school and learn to read.

Oh really? Here's the full unedited post...show us where BTJ said being Nigerian was a problem? Talk about taking things out of context! And how is saying "Caucasian male will be a minority" a racist remark? You're an idiot, Kinosh, but you've found your niche here at EOG!

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>SHRINK IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE PROBLEMS HERE IN MASSACHUSETTS WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF ELECTING OUR FIRST NIGERIAN GOVERNOR AND HES A DEMOCRAT:finger004 WWW.DEVALPATRICK.COM AND HE IS A GOOD FRIEND OF MY OLD BUDDIE JESSE JACKSON.HOW THE TIMES ARE CHANGING TRUST ME FOLKS PRETTY SOON THE CAUCASIAN MALE WILL BE A MINORITY

Doc Mercer · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2006/11/07/11322...

From MSNBC's David Shuster

Richmond, VA -- Jean Jensen, Secretary of the Virginia State Board of Elections, confirms that the FBI is now looking into possible voter intimidation in the US Senate race between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb. Jensen says state officials alerted the Justice Department yesterday to several complaints of suspicious phone calls to voters that attempted to misdirect or confuse them about election day. She adds she has now been contacted by FBI agents. The FBI in Richmond refuses to comment.

In a written statement issued by the Webb campaign, state Democratic party counsel Jay Myerson says he believes that Republicans are behind an orchestrated effort to suppress votes for Webb. Republican officials, including the executive director of the Virginia Republican party, say the GOP and the Allen campaign are focused on mobilizing voters and have not discouraged anyone from voting.

PSUONE · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Pelosi is a stupid whore

Doc Mercer · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Yeah ...

and Bush is a lying cocksucker who sent 2800 American kids to their deaths in a country he admitted had no ties to 9-11

Take a look at Cheney ... does it get any better than this lowlife FreeMason Nutcase?

THE SHRINK · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

I just returned from voting in my precinct and I'm happy to report there has been a VERY LARGE turn out here thus far...

The volunteers told me we are on pace in Chesapeake, Va for a record number of voters coming out to vote given the fact this is a Non presidential election...

arty

Salo · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Sportsbook.com seems less confident in a Republican majority Senate. Today almost 63 percent of the money is going to the Republican line compared to almost 88 percent that headed there last week. Meanwhile, bettors haven't really changed their view that Democrats will take a majority of the House seats with almost 73 per cent of the money bet on a Democrat victory, down marginally from 75 percent last week. According to the latest odds at Sportsbook.com, the Democrats are -450 to win the House and +200 to gain control of the Senate. Republicans are +300 to retain control over the House and -280 to retain the Senate.

Lawrence · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

FOX reporting an INCREDIBLE 65% turnout in Virgina. Record #'s for a mid-term...

ZZ CREAM · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

THE SHRINK said:
ZZ Cream,

Allen is going DOWN and I would bet on it..

On my way to assist now too...:dancefool

I hope you're right....but like a certain 'doubting Thomas', I will believe after those southwestern counties' votes are counted......Good Luck !

P.S. How tempting is it to have a cocktail or two today Ken? Good Luck With That Too!

dirty · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Steady voter turnout in Georgia
by The Associated Press

UNDATED - Georgia election officials say voter turnout was steady throughout the morning despite rain and fog that blanketed many parts of the state.

A spokeswoman in the Secretary of State's Office -- Ashley Holt -- says turnout has been ``consistently steady'' in most polling places. She says turnout has been especially strong in Effingham County in eastern Georgia.

That county is included in the 12th Congressional District, where U-S Representative John Barrow faces Republican Max Burns, the congressman he narrowly ousted two years ago.

Before th <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=130 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD><TD bgColor=#999999 rowSpan=4>

</TD><TD rowSpan=4>

</TD></TR><TR><TD>The Secretary of State's Office says turnout in Georiga has been ``consistently steady'' in most polling places.</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>e rainy forecast, Secretary of State Cathy Cox had predicted a relatively light turnout. She said that without a high-profile presidential race to draw voters to the polls only about 48 percent of the state's four-point-four (m) million registered voters would cast a ballot.

HALL COUNTY

There were about a dozen people in line at the Gainesville Civic Center at 6:50 this morning - ten minutes before the polls opened. During the first 20 minutes after the doors open, a steady stream of voters filed in, braving a foggy, chilly, windy morning but the rain that was in the forecast had not settled in although some showers had fallen overnight. Showers did start in the Gainesville/northeast Georgia area later in the morning.

It was much the same at another north Gainesville polling place, Whelchel II at Riverbend Baptist Church. The parking lot there at 7:30 was not full but people were coming and going - part of the 74,000 or so eligible to vote this time. There are six local contested traditional races on the Hall County ballot, although because of by-district voting, not everyone is eligible to vote on every single race. (See separate story via link below.)

AROUND THE COUNTRY

Rain in parts of Tennessee isn't dampening enthusiasm at the polls, or among the candidates in a tight Senate race.

Republican candidate Bob Corker tells voters he's confident he'll win against Democrat Harold Ford Junior. He told rain-soaked supporters he's run the best race he could and is ``at peace.''

The campaign to replace Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has been one of several nasty contests attracting national attention this year. Ford is also trying to become the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction.

Early turnout has been heavy. Officials are noting a nearly 50 percent increase over the 2002 midterm elections.

Ford, meanwhile, says one precinct has been closed because voting machines weren't working. He says his campaign attorneys have already made a challenge on behalf of people who were told to wait until later to vote.

A Tennessee election official says some counties reported problems earlier, but he hadn't heard of the problem Ford had noted.

VOTING PROBLEMS

A citizens watchdog group says voters across the country are phoning a national hotline to get information -- and report problems.

The president of Common Cause says the biggest number of calls are from Pennsylvania, where 13-hundred voters have phoned. Next was California, New York and Ohio.

But there are also many calls from Arizona, where she says new and stringent voter I-D laws are in place. Common Cause says several people have called to report problems there.

She says the lines are open for anyone needing voter information or to report irregularities at the polls.

(The Common Cause voter hotline is one-866-MYVOTE-one).

(AccessNorthGa.com's Ken Stanford contributed to this story.)

Related Links:
Gainesville area election preview
email Ken Stanford
</SPAN>
</TD></TR><TR><TR><TD align=left>
?Copyright 2006 AccessNorthGa.com / WDUN News/Talk 550.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

CHALKbreaker · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Having worked as a pollster, I can tell you the biggest MYTH out there is that high voter turnout favors the democrats. That is simply not true, and I can document it with numerous statistical models. The 2004 last presidential election set all time records for voter turnout, and did that help Kerry win a race that was showing a dead heat in all the final polls?

The key is GETTING OUT YOUR BASE. All your internal polling data will show that close elections are won by who gets out their base in the highest%ages. A high overall turnout often just means that BOTH parties are getting out their base.

Seeing the polling data for Virginia, I would have to lean toward Allen winning to be perfectly honest. The reason I say that is that you usually can call a close race by the last few sets of reputable polling data (Rassmussen, Zogbie, and Strategic vision are the best private polls,...short of the own parties internal poll) When you see the gap closing toward one side near the end of the race, that very last momentum will usually win a dead heat race. To me it looks like Allen has been closing the gap in that race by the week. That last bit of momentum is often who wins races that show a dead heat.

One thing to remember was in 2000 practically every poll out there showed Bush ahead by around 5% points. In the last days Bush mad a "victory lap" to places like California (which was all ready lost) instead of going back to key battle ground states. The final polls showed Gore closing in on that 5%, and indeed that final momentum would push Gore to actually carry the popular vote, which was way out of line with the final polls, but not surprising to many good pollsters.

Whoson1st · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Webb must not be worried. At the precint where I voted for him; there was a table outside the building set up for Allen. There was no such table for Webb. I hope he beats Allen.
One political comentator said this race could be decided by less than 1000 votes!
Hope they are in Webb's favor!

wrigley · Nov 7, 2006

Re: SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

Polls now closed in Virgina

SENATE ELECTION PREDICTION IN VIRGINIA

1

EOG Dedicated

Banned

2

1

2

1

2

1

EOG Master

2

EOG Dedicated

2

EOG Dedicated

2

EOG Enthusiast

EOG Dedicated

1

EOG Master

EOG Dedicated

EOG Master

EOG Dedicated

2

2

2

2

EOG Master

1

EOG Dedicated

EOG Master

EOG Veteran

EOG Master

1

EOG Dedicated

EOG Dedicated

EOG Master

EOG Master

EOG Dedicated

EOG Dedicated

2