Based on the way my early plays have gone this season, you might want to consider holding your nose while you read this space. Weird in that I've usually done better with my initial opinions than with those I arrive at later in the week, but this season it's gone the other way. But I do feel pretty good about this week's group, so let's get to 'em.
103 Ohio +3 vs. Central Michigan
MAC title on the line and I think the wrong team may be favored. I admit to a bias in favor of good defensive teams that run the ball and stop the run, but this is a philosophy that has always served me well, especially when I can get these teams as underdogs. The Bobcats found their identity in mid-season and they've been a very good team down the stretch. Over their last five games, Ohio has rushed for 245 ypg while surrendering just 112. Anytime I can get a team showing those tendencies as a dog, I'm very interested. Central Michigan has had a great year and the Chippewas have the superior offense. But I'm banking on Ohio being able to feature the run ably enough to control the tempo and the clock. CMU will be throwing it all over the place and if they get hot early and get the lead, this pick is toast as Ohio does not strike me as a team that can rally from any meaningful deficit. But I am just as confident that if the Bobcats get out of the gate well, they can hold a lead throughout the proceedings. The fact that CMU's rushing defense was a little spotty late in the season is encouraging. Put me down on the dog here.
118 TCU -14' vs. Air Force
No need to try and sell TCU right now. The Frogs are on fire and if the MWC had a title game where TCU could get a second shot at BYU, I know where my money would go. That's not happening, but I sure have no problem bouncing right back with these guys after they plowed through Colorado State on Saturday. This looks like a blowout, as Air Force is helpless when they can't run, and they don't figure to run here. TCU has one of the nation's best rush defenses and they've been utterly dominant of late in this area. I also love the fact they have so much speed on defense as they should have little trouble doing in the AFA option with this asset. Offensively, as I mentioned last week, TCU has finally figured out how to finish off their drives and now they get to face a Falcons defense that appears to be completely out of gas. They made UNLV look like a juggernaut Friday, and that's no easy task. Can Air Force suddenly regroup for a virtually meaningless road game against a team that's averaged 253 ypg on the ground the last four games? I doubt it, so I'll come right back and play TCU again.
127 UL Monroe +3' vs. UL Lafayette
Monroe was very possibly the youngest team in all of 1-A this year and it showed most of the season. But these kids have really figured things out of late and the Indians have played very well the last three weeks. I'm especially impressed with the way they've turned up the running game (243 ypg the last three) while stuffing the opposition (60 ypg the last three). Granted, two of the three wins were against awful competition, as blowing past FIU and North Texas means very little. But nearly upsetting Kentucky was significant. Even in a huge letdown spot for the Wildcats, one has to be at least a little impressed with what Monroe was able to accomplish on the road against an SEC team. Also, there's a decided underdog tilt to this rivalry. The underdog has covered eight straight in this series, and the last time the favorite covered was back in 1997...and the chalk needed an OT to get the job done. Lafayette has won two straight heading into this game, but in reality the season will be a bit of a disappointment for this squad, as they were pegged by many to win the Sun Belt and get a bowl bid. So even though the Cajuns are 6-5, I wonder about the mindset here, especially coming off a bye week. Revenge motive from a 54-21 loss last year at Lafayette is one more potential factor that favors Monroe, and I'll be happy to grab the points.
103 Ohio +3 vs. Central Michigan
MAC title on the line and I think the wrong team may be favored. I admit to a bias in favor of good defensive teams that run the ball and stop the run, but this is a philosophy that has always served me well, especially when I can get these teams as underdogs. The Bobcats found their identity in mid-season and they've been a very good team down the stretch. Over their last five games, Ohio has rushed for 245 ypg while surrendering just 112. Anytime I can get a team showing those tendencies as a dog, I'm very interested. Central Michigan has had a great year and the Chippewas have the superior offense. But I'm banking on Ohio being able to feature the run ably enough to control the tempo and the clock. CMU will be throwing it all over the place and if they get hot early and get the lead, this pick is toast as Ohio does not strike me as a team that can rally from any meaningful deficit. But I am just as confident that if the Bobcats get out of the gate well, they can hold a lead throughout the proceedings. The fact that CMU's rushing defense was a little spotty late in the season is encouraging. Put me down on the dog here.
118 TCU -14' vs. Air Force
No need to try and sell TCU right now. The Frogs are on fire and if the MWC had a title game where TCU could get a second shot at BYU, I know where my money would go. That's not happening, but I sure have no problem bouncing right back with these guys after they plowed through Colorado State on Saturday. This looks like a blowout, as Air Force is helpless when they can't run, and they don't figure to run here. TCU has one of the nation's best rush defenses and they've been utterly dominant of late in this area. I also love the fact they have so much speed on defense as they should have little trouble doing in the AFA option with this asset. Offensively, as I mentioned last week, TCU has finally figured out how to finish off their drives and now they get to face a Falcons defense that appears to be completely out of gas. They made UNLV look like a juggernaut Friday, and that's no easy task. Can Air Force suddenly regroup for a virtually meaningless road game against a team that's averaged 253 ypg on the ground the last four games? I doubt it, so I'll come right back and play TCU again.
127 UL Monroe +3' vs. UL Lafayette
Monroe was very possibly the youngest team in all of 1-A this year and it showed most of the season. But these kids have really figured things out of late and the Indians have played very well the last three weeks. I'm especially impressed with the way they've turned up the running game (243 ypg the last three) while stuffing the opposition (60 ypg the last three). Granted, two of the three wins were against awful competition, as blowing past FIU and North Texas means very little. But nearly upsetting Kentucky was significant. Even in a huge letdown spot for the Wildcats, one has to be at least a little impressed with what Monroe was able to accomplish on the road against an SEC team. Also, there's a decided underdog tilt to this rivalry. The underdog has covered eight straight in this series, and the last time the favorite covered was back in 1997...and the chalk needed an OT to get the job done. Lafayette has won two straight heading into this game, but in reality the season will be a bit of a disappointment for this squad, as they were pegged by many to win the Sun Belt and get a bowl bid. So even though the Cajuns are 6-5, I wonder about the mindset here, especially coming off a bye week. Revenge motive from a 54-21 loss last year at Lafayette is one more potential factor that favors Monroe, and I'll be happy to grab the points.
