HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

[Hoosier Daddy]

21-7 in the Bowls LY over at the RX.

One thing about me is that I won't play every bowl game. You don't have to dance every dance as was said on the Leroy's Line on Sunday. I may say who I like or give my opinion on every game, but won't play them. I also won't post elaborate writeups either since there is a ton of info that smart people on the forums already know. I'll give just a couple simple reasons or angles why I like a game.

136-118-10 in College Football this season (finished with a 7-0 on Championship Saturday).

First play

Poinsettia Bowl:
Northern Illinois (+12) 2*
TCU should thrash this team, but I love Joe Novak (NIU HC). He is a great motivator and a very underrated coach. TCU finished out the season strong, but I don't know if they are excited to be here. It is very rare that a MAC school gets to go to a real nice warm-weather city for a bowl (no offense, Detroit, Mobile and Toronto). I think the Huskies may play inspired football here.

GL

HD
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[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Bowl Record 0-1

Threw in a real clunker on Tuesday with Northern Illinois. Initially liked the Under, but talked myself into Northern Illinois.

Las Vegas Bowl:
BYU (-3) 2*
Pretty much the whole stadium will be BYU people. The game is actually sold out, which is fairly rare for this bowl game.

This game means more to BYU IMO than it does to Oregon. This is the Mountain West's bowl game, so questionable calls would likely go the Cougars way.

BYU's offense has the ability to really dink and dump and move the chains and control the clock. I think they will do that here and keep Oregon's offense off the field.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Add:

BYU/Oregon Under 63 (-120) 2*
Literally zero touts are on the Under here. I liked the over at 58 where it opened, the sharps and wisguys bet it up to 60 and the pub has taken it to 63. Contrary to popular belief, BYU is not a quick strike offense. They put together long drives, move the chains and milk clock. Beck throws a lot of underneath routes. Plus, I think Oregon will really work their running game tonight b/c they think they can overpower BYU.

GL

HD

 

[shtanny mingles]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

good call, i put my under in tuesday as my im gonna bet 5 times my normal number on it, living in vegas, watching games at sam boyd, with my brother at ou, this was so easy it was pathetic, i get proven wrong it will take alot of bad luck which i dont see coming, didnt lean a side but kind of hoped oregon would come with something to play for, the lack of anything at qb i guess is holidng them back, its 10 0 now i hope the ducks stage a rally so i dont change the channel, but once again, under was the lock of the century i have no idea who the hell as capping this game, theyw ill be lucky to see 40

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Add:

New Orleans Bowl:
Rice (-5) 1.5*
Smaller than usual b/c I'm not as confident, but I think Rice is the more motivated club. Rice moves the ball well and Troy is ugly on offense sometimes. More of a hunch than anything.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

2-2 with a loser last night.

Saturday 12/23 Games (all 1.5 units):

PapaJohn's.com Bowl:
East Carolina/South Florida Under 43
USF is awful tough to hit on big plays (ask WV and Rutgers). I see a physical and sloppy game.

New Mexico Bowl:
New Mexico (-3)
Trendy pick to take Tomey here. Tomey clearly is the superior coach, but I think this is the year New Mexico finally steps up and breaks their horrible bowl streak.

Armed Forces Bowl:
Utah/Tulsa Under 49

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

5-3 Bowls (3-0 Totals, 1-3 Sides, 1-0 2nd Halfs)

Winner on the USF/ECU Under, and a small 2nd half Under play, loser with New Mexico and winner with Utah/Tulsa Under.

Hawaii Bowl:
Arizona State (+8) -115
Too easy to go against ASU since they have the rep of being a soft team and have a lame-duck coach to boot. I think ASU can run the ball all over Hawaii's defense. This is Hawaii's best team since 02' when they lost this bowl game to Tulane. People are jumping on the Bows b/c they are laying less than 10. ASU had one of the better defenses in the Pac-10 and will make Hawaii work for what they get. Plus, I think Hawaii may be a little overconfident here.

GL

HD

 

[pags11]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

we should have cashed this one hoosier daddy...keep truckin' bro...

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

5-4 Bowls (3-0 Totals, 1-4 Sides, 1-0 2nd Half)

Motor City Bowl (good seats still available):

Middle Tennessee (+8)
Wish I would have got the 9.5 and bought to 10, but still like getting over a TD.

MTSU is the much better running team and pretty much equal, if not better on defense.

CMU has an interim coach, who obviously was not wanted by Brian Kelly to go with him to Cincinnati.

CMU also played in Detroit where they dismantled Ohio in the MAC Title Game. Not having to travel very far, I think will take away their focus.

The pub is all over CMU and the wiseguys are on MT. I will side with the wiseguys here.

Everyone sees CMU's 11-2 ATS record. These records mean nothing.

GL

HD
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[papabear]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Don.t do it take CMU

 

[tango papa]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

HD, believe me, no one has ever mistaken me for a Wise Guy, and I'm on MTSU for 1 unit. GL

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

5-5 Bowls

3-0 Totals
1-5 Sides YIKES!!!
1-0 2nd Half

Another side here, so you may want to fade. Maybe I'm due today (considering I have 5 straight losing days going). I hope I'm due b/c I am about to give up.

Emerald Bowl:
Florida State (+4) (-120) 2.5*
Starting to get worried with a lot of people on UCLA, but I liked this one when the lines first came out and I have to stick with it and can't second guess myself.

I know Bowden has been terrible of late, but I will take him over Dorrell. Plus, this is Jeff Bowden's last game as OC for the Noles. He may just let it all hang out here and run trick plays and take some chances.

In addition, while I love UCLA's defense and they have been very good this year, FSU is good on defense every year. Mickey Andrews is still one of the nation's best DC's and has had a month to scheme and plan.

Granted, FSU has underachieved but they still have a little better talent than UCLA.

I don't think UCLA will be able to run the ball at all on FSU which will force Patrick Cowan to make plays down the field, something he has not done much of.

Plus, this is a battle of state pride. You wouldn't think this would matter, but Cali schools want to beat Florida schools and vice versa.

UCLA won their bowl game over USC. People down in Nole Country already want Bobby B to go. He may be out to prove something here.

GL

HD
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[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

That's more like it!

6-5 Bowls (3-0 Totals, 2-5 Sides, 1-0 2nd Half)

Thursday Dec 28 Bowls:

Independence Bowl:
PASS

I would lean with Bama +.

I don't have a good read on this at all and will not force the action.

Texas Bowl:
Kansas State (+7') 2*
I feel K-State can move the ball, especially through the air. K-State recruits Texas heavily and this is a big game for them.

Rutgers may chop enough wood to win, but won't lay the wood with a possible disinteredted favorite.

HOLIDAY BOWL:
Texas A & M (+4) 2.5*
Texas A & M/Cal Over 52

I think Fran finally got the monkey off his back with a big win over a rival (texas). I expect that A & M will try to play the power running game and won't get uptempo with Cal here.

A & M is only a few plays from actually being unbeaten and I'm getting over a FG here.

Cal will still score some points b/c spread offenses are successful against the Aggies.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Remind me to put Steve Levy on my X-Mas Card list for next year.

7-7 (-2.2)
4-0 Totals
1-0 2nd Half Total
2-7 Sides (Ouch!)

MUSIC CITY BOWL:
Kentucky (+10') (-120) 2*
Kentucky/Clemson Over 57' 2*
After that hot start, Clemson has to be disappointed to be in Nashville. Kentucky travels well and will have a huge crowd. This is UK's first bowl since 99'.

Clemson's defense has disappeared and Kentucky gave up 40 to Louisiana-Monroe, which tells you all you need to know about this defense. UK can't stop the run and teams have been able to throw on Clemson late in the year.

SUN BOWL:
PASS

LIBERTY BOWL:
Houston (+6) 2*
Houston/South Carolina Over 56 2*

Houston is very live here. Kolb will want to go out a winner. I don't think Spurrier is concerned with lower-tier bowls. He's concerned with getting good players in recruiting to compete in New Year's bowls.

Both teams have offenses loaded with tricks so I expect a lot of points here.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL:
Maryland ML 2*
Purdue/Maryland Over 53' 2*

All the value has been sucked out of Purdue. I'm taking a shot here with Maryland.

Purdue's defense is absolute garbage. They have allowed 200 yards + on the ground in each of last 3 games and don't get started on their secondary.

Maryland also can't stop any decent offenses. Purdue still has some speed at WR that will give Maryland problems.

INSIGHT BOWL:
Minnesota/Texas Tech Over 65' 2.5*
I don't like that the line has moved down to 64, but I just don't see how Minnesota stops the Texas Tech pass offense. I also think Minnesota can bust a couple of long runs on the Red Raiders.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

4-3 yesterday.

An unimpressive 11-10 in bowls.

6-2 Totals
4-8 Sides
1-0 2nd Half

3 for today:

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL:
Navy/Boston College Over 47' 2*
Paul Johnson is crafty and will have some tricks for this one. Spaziani will not be the coach next year, so they may open up the offense.


ALAMO BOWL:
Iowa/Texas Over 53' 2*
Texas' pass defense is terrible. This is Drew Tate's last game, so I would expect him to play well. I also expect Texas to score on Iowa's defense. I saw this defense in person at Indiana and they give up tons of big plays.

PEACH BOWL:
Georgia (+3) 2*
All the talk has been about Georgia's QB issues, well VT has some of their own. The Dawgs got crushed LY in the Sugar Bowl. I would expect more focus here.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Sorry it's late, but I did play it and I was tied up with other things.

MPC Computer Bowl:

Miami/Nevada Under 44

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

14-11 Bowl Record YTD (+2.8)
5-8 Sides
8-3 Totals
1-0 2nd Half

COTTON BOWL:
Nebraska/Auburn Over 46' 4*
Looks too easy to take the under after Nebraska only scored 7 in their last National TV game (Big 12 Title Game vs. Oklahoma). Callahan is known as a tricky coach anyway and this is a bowl game so he will pull out all the stops with gadget plays.

Auburn has a good defense, but defenses don't always show up in bowl games (i.e. Virginia Tech).

OUTBACK BOWL:
Penn State/Tennessee Under 41 2*
PSU's offense is not very good, but their defense is lights out (14 ppg) against a Tennessee club that can't run the ball very well (only 110 per game).

CAPITAL ONE BOWL:
Pass for now. Lean Wisconsin.

GATOR BOWL:
Georgia Tech (+10) 3*
GT is better without Reggie Ball. This is by far the best defense West Virginia will have faced this year. I think the public is looking too much at the Sugar Bowl LY when WV was crushing Georgia 28-0. Georgia is perceived to be that much better than Georgia Tech.

I think Jon Tenuta (GT DC) is a great schemer when given time to prepare.

ROSE BOWL:
USC/Michigan Under 47 2*
USC really struggled to run the ball against UCLA and now they take on a team im Michigan who only allows 43 yards per game on the ground. USC will have to throw the ball and Michigan's back 7 is very opportunistic.

USC is excellent against the pass and I think Michigan wants to be a running team anyway.

I don't question the motivation for either team. This is still the Rose Bowl and coming from Big 10 country, these teams in this conference have one goal which is to get to the Rose Bowl. IMO this is the best matchup of all the bowls.

GL


HD
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[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Add:

CAPITAL ONE BOWL:
Wisconsin (+2) 1.5*
I don't like Ark switching QB's all the time. They will have problems stopping Wisky's run attack and Wisky has a better defense.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

What a fucking fluke. The worst beat I have ever had.
FIESTA BOWL:
Boise State/Oklahoma Under 51 1.5*

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

3-3 yesterday.

17-14 (+0.25)

Up and down bowl season, want to finish strong.

ORANGE BOWL:
Louisville (-10) 2.5*
The dogs have been barking, but they whimper tonight. The Cards are a horrible matchup for the Deacons. U of L can throw the ball all over the place and the Deacons strength is their run defense.

I don't think that offense that Jim Grobe (my coach of the year) runs will work against the team speed of U of L. GT pretty much shut them down, but had no offense to take advantage.

The +10 looks appetitzing, but they are daring me to take it and I won't bite.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

18-14 Bowls, slightly on the plus side.
8-8 Sides, 10-6 Totals

SUGAR BOWL:
Notre Dame (+9) (-115) 2*
The coaching edge alone leads me to take the Irish. I also think ND has taken a beating in the press over their bowl losing streak and how they are going to get blown out, etc, etc. I think LSU playing in New Orleans is actually a disadvantage (hanging with their homeboys).

Charlie Weis will have some tricks tonight and he has proven to be a good motivator in these situations.

LSU is the most talented team in the country, but I think they may be buying into their own press clippings. They don't always play like the most talented team and they turn the ball over in bad situations.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

SUGAR BOWL:
Notre Dame/LSU Under 56 2.5*
Best defense ND has faced all year and I also think LSU will struggle to score a little with the erratic Russell.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

19-15 Bowls (8-9 Sides; 11-6 Totals)

INTERNATIONAL BOWL:
Western Michigan (+7) 1.5*
UC with new coach Brian Kelly has had 14 practices. I don't care that C Mich easily beat W Mich, Different team, different day, different circumstances.

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

20-15 Bowls (+4.45) 9-9 Sides; 11-6 Totals

BCS Title Game:

Florida/Ohio State Under 47 2.5*
With this long of a layoff, the defenses are always ahead of the offenses. Plus, the public perception is off what we all saw last. Both of these teams played in high-scoring games (OSU beat Michigan 35-32 and Florida beat Arkansas 38-28).

GL

HD

 

[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: HD's 06'-07' College Bowl Thread

Well, that was fun.

BCS TITLE GAME:
Florida/Ohio State Under 24 (+105) 2nd Half 1.5*
Florida has shown they can control the clock with Tebow running the ball. Florida's defense is too fast for the Buckeyes and Ohio State cannot run the ball which means they have to throw and Smith is just off tonight.

GL

HD