Ok, I suck, I want advice (Shady, Cannon, tool.. I wanna hear from you guys)

[rN'33zy]

First things first, what is the normal way of keeping track of your record? It feels like my way is so complicated in the NBA and too vague in the NCAAB. Basically, what do you keep track of?

My NBA record is:

10-21 this season, -10.2 units (overall record and overall units down)

Spread: 5-8 (-2.1) ML: 0-1 (-1) Parlays: 0-4 (-3) Totals: 5-7 (-4.1) (record of what how I'm doing in each category and units won/lost)

8-9 (-1) (-$15.04 - including juice) (my "new method" along with units won/lost and actually won won/lost)

The thing I get confused about, is let's say I'm 3-3. I'm not even, I'm down the juice. So would I include the juice in my units or money lost? I don't understand what the most accurate record keeping method is. Let's say 0-6 and hit a parlay and come up 50 units, do I include that in my record? Or would it ruin the record meaning? I know I shouldn't worry about this and sorry about making winning picks, but I want to keep the most accurate record possible.

Next, my pick picking skills suck. I follow the NBA but not NCAAB, but I follow a different capper almost every other day and it costs me money. My unit size is only $10 as I can't afford to lose much. My bankroll got killed yesterday and I'm left with $19. What's the best way to increase my bankroll? Make 1 pick everyday and pray or make 3 small parlays or something? I need some good advice from the many good cappers we have here.

Although I mentioned I want to hear from Shady, Cannon, and tool, I'd like to hear what every has to say. It'll be much appreciated.

 

[Rondo]

Re: Ok, I suck, I want advice (Shady, Cannon, tool.. I wanna hear from you guys)

Maybe try fading your plays. I probably wouldnt be betting parlays with $19 left. This is just my opinion. honestly if I were you I would take a look at cannons thread, make three small plays from those guys on there, they are all very good. Good luck, hope you build that BR up!!

 

[mofome]

Re: Ok, I suck, I want advice (Shady, Cannon, tool.. I wanna hear from you guys)

I did not make your requests list, but i'll take a stab at it anyway.

-always count the juice in your units lost
-never count parlays as Ws or Ls.
-never, i repeat, never play parlays. Ask any ex-book maker and they will tell you that their favorite wager to take is a parlay. if you want a spike in your returns, plays some ml dogs.
-typically if you are 3-3, your record should read (3-3; -0.30 units)
-if you have 19$ and you want to win, dont play any parlays. If you love a play, lay 10 on it. your br risk is going to be higher than what anyone should recommend, but thats b/c your limits are set as they are.
-typically 54% is the mark you get judged on...either below or above. For you to increase your br you will have to hit at a substancially higher rate.


bol

 

[tool21]

Re: Ok, I suck, I want advice (Shady, Cannon, tool.. I wanna hear from you guys)

IMO, parlays are just pipe dreams. Anything above 4 is considered almost a waste. When i started out in MLB i'd try 7-8-9 team parlays cuz the payout just looked so good. The odds are against you with parlays. Probably just stick to straight bets. I know chuck luck got lucky as hell and won that huge parlay, but his chances of that are VERY slim. As far as record keeping, I just keep the record, not units. If you're betting a standard amount on each game then just a record is fine. Everyone that bets knows that if you're 11-11, your down juice. That's why you have the magic 54% which is what you need to be profitable to counter the juice. If you're using different wager amounts, then it probably is a good idea using units to keep track. Best thing i can tell you about your $19 left is you're screwed. Minimum bet most places is 5 bux, which is about 25% of your bankroll. Chances are you're not going to win with that. One bad day and all your money is gone. Money management my friend...i still struggle with it but it keeps you alive for more days if you have a terrible day. For every down day you have, you will have up days. You just have to survive to get to em. Most of my plays now are 7.5% of my bankroll since i am working with a small bankroll and this high % still scares me. Most betters recomend 1%-2% unless your just that good.

 

[Vanshady]

Re: Ok, I suck, I want advice (Shady, Cannon, tool.. I wanna hear from you guys)

1) parlays only if u have money to burn. I do parlays when i am up and dont care if i give 25 or 50 back. I never expect to hit them and consider it money lost as soon as i place it. With your bankroll you should not be playing parlays.

2) Everyone tracks thier units a little differently. You can ask 5 people and get 5 different answers. I am probably different in that i go week to week with my win/loss. My week starts on monday and ends on sunday. My goal is to just churn out one positive week after another. I flat bet most of the time but i mix it up if i find a game that is more attractive. THis is looking like my first losing week in the last 5 if things dont change the next couple days...For me, going week to week is easier to follow and keeps me a bit more disciplined. The nice thing is i keep a record of what i won or lost everyweek, for the whole year in a file. So it is very quick and easy for me to calculate exactly where i am at.

3) As far as picking games, trust your own judgement. Don't follow blindly. Ride whoever is hot. Remeber noone wins everyday. And when you have a bad run(like my last two days) you must stay disciplined. Dont allow yourself to be wiped out if go on a bad streak, they happen. I have lost 4 games in a row. But i could lose another ten and still not be wiped out. You have to remember this is a long term game and short term betting stragedies will end you...quickly...and try to stay positive even when nothing is going your way. Bad attitude and anxiety beget losing...



hope that helps a little Aren and good luck....

 

[munson15]

Re: Ok, I suck, I want advice (Shady, Cannon, tool.. I wanna hear from you guys)

Aren, I just count the dollars. W/L or units confuse me, since everyone's unit can be different. I just write them all down, and I know each morning exactly how many $$ I'm up or down. The W/L record is meaningless, unless you do flat betting, which not many seem to do. All the advice above is good, and I agree on parlays, you make more $$ on an "if bet" anyway, when you are looking for a bigger payday. GL to you, these guys all know their stuff!:cheers