buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
I am sure some will perceive this as calling some posters out, but this is not attended to do such. Rather it meant as a tool that I feel is useful (but not the law) to help people find the 3 to 6% of handicappers that actually generate long term profits handicapping the sport. In my opinion, the best and possibly only way for you to truly find one of the ?elite? is weeding out the 95% of people that don?t fit in this category using a filter system. From my two decades of handicapping and time spent on forums, here are some filtering variables that you can quickly use to find out who isn?t the best.
1.) The easiest way to find out who hasn?t been making long term money in handicapping on these forums is analyzing their money management techniques when these posters are willing to share such. One of the most surprising things I have witnessed on gambling forums is that so many people display a lack of proper money management discipline. It is not an art, rather a discipline that is easy to master and should be installed in ones handicapping process prior to making a single bet. Keep your eyes on people betting games with different amounts on each game. I can?t believe how many people risk 200%, 500% and even more on certain games compared to others. When you see a poster using such money management techniques, don?t walk away from their posts, run. This is the easiest and fastest way to find out if a certain handicapper has been doing this for a long time at a successful rate, as anyone that has had success would know such a technique is simply ridiculous. I still remember how a long term successful gambler put it to me nearly 20 years ago. He said ?that the key to handicapping is taking the ?coin flipping? out of the results by obtaining a sustainable edge. Once you have achieved such you are on your way to generate very rewarding returns. Betting different amounts on games puts the ?coin flipping? right back into your handicapping?. There have been several Monte Carlo simulations that have shown that the Kelly Criterion money management technique actually diminishes the expected returns nearly 90% of the time. When one could accurately justify that one bet has a greater chance of hitting than another one he plans to bet, weeding out processes gives you a better chance of enhancing returns. Although I feel the Kelly Criterion is too aggressive, some of the posters techniques I see on a daily basis blow it a way. Think about it. Take the people that bet 10 times (or 1000%) more on certain games. What percent chance do these people think these bets have of cashing in and how much higher is it compared to the one unit bets they make. Even if they say these bets have a 60% of hitting while the one unit bets have a 55% it makes NO SENSE whatsoever to risk that much more on a 5% edge, and anyone that tells you the disparity is greater is full of it. Anyone using a progressive or Martingale system is another person that has not generated long term gains nor does this person have a strong mathematical background. Weed those people out as well. Believe it or not, you have just weeded out 40% of posters (would be more if more were willing to share their money management techniques).
2.) What I also see on forums are people that bump threads on every winning post. I have never seen an environment where such high rates of people die for attention. Realizing that about 95% of poster have not been able to generate long term gains you will quickly understand why they feel the need for attention when they have a winning day. They know these days are not sustainable and have not been sustainable since entering this industry. All the successful handicappers that I have had the pleasure of knowing over the years are the most humble and modest people I know. They wouldn?t get caught dead on an internet forum pumping their chest every time they put down a post that makes money. ?Attention whoring? is a dead give away that someone has not yet achieved that 3 to 5 % status. Keep your eye out on thread bumpers and attention whores- and cross them off your list of successful handicappers.
3.) Now that you have weeded out about 60% of posters, with the ones remaining, if they are willing to share the derivation of their picks, take advantage of it. Look at why they chose such pick. I see a lot of flaws in peoples reasoning behind picks, and they are easy to spot. To a certain degree, they are subjective, but distinguishable. Filter out the people whose reasoning?s defy logic and are not correlated to outcomes of the games.
4.) Having a strong statistical background is a huge asset for handicappers. Not having it is a detriment, but not a wall that prevents a handicapper from being successful. But there are a lot of fallacies that I see posted everyday that straight up defies statistical logic and pretty much shows the handicappers lack of experience. When I see posts in the likes of ?I am hot, follow me? or ? I am due, follow me?, or ?I am cold, fade me?, my advice is to not simply not read any of their posts again, as they are defying key handicapping logic, by actually thinking there is substance behind streaks of independent events. Handicapping is NOT about hot and cold streaks. In fact, hot and cold streaks are absolutely meaningless for independent events such as betting baseball games. If you have a handicapper that lacks a sustainable edge, and is on a hot streak, the expected results of his future outcomes of the next 10, 100, or 1000 bets is still simply his ?intrinsic handicapping value? (or mean average).-implying that he is likely to hit 50% going forward. Hot streaks ONLY hold merit when there exists a structural change in ones handicapping intrinsic value. If a long term 50% handicapper has improved his techniques that have allowed him to achieve a hot streak, then it holds merit, as his ?mean? has increased. Otherwise, hot and cold streaks are utterly useless and hold no merit, as does any other independent normal distribution outcome of events. Keep an eye out for posters that swear by streaks and think there is substance behind them. My guess is that they are new to this game and don?t understand what regression means. The key is not trying to achieve hot streaks and prevent cold steaks, they are both are bound to happen. The key is deriving a solid money management technique that curtails the effect of both streaks, as something that holds no statistical substance should have as little effect as possible on ones bankroll. I advise you to filter out such posters as well.
5.) Number four leads right to number five. I always see on these handicapping forums people that try to ?time? their bets. When they are ?hot? posters have a tendency to bet more per game or bet more games. All this does is simply show their lack of experience, and essentially their ignorance of timing independent variables. However, one should acknowledge the effects of long run hot and cold streaks on their bankroll and adjust accordingly (ie % of bankroll method).
6.) Keep your eye out for trend bettors and tread cautiously with such. People that solely rely on trends on deriving sides are missing the bigger picture. Most trends are merely randomness found by ?data mining? and hold no substance. The few trends that do hold substance has an underlying self fulfilling prophecy working against itself.
7) For baseball, keep your eye out for people that consistently fail to acknowledge price. These people have the tendency to pick heavy favorites and are more concerned about their winning percentage than getting positive returns. Essentially, handicapping baseball comes down to one thing- your line vs. the market line. The market line is derived by a linesmakers that probably knows more than you will ever know about the sport. It is derived by what he thinks the line should be coupled with the expected supply and demand on the particular game. Beating the number takes advantage of the seconded embedded variable in the linemakers line. Simply put, filter out the people that neglect such a concept.
8.) I can?t believe how many people don?t understand the concept of being willing to understand that it DOES make sense at times to bet teams you think has a greater chance of losing than winning. Price is everything. Distinguishing the value of a particular team on a particular game and comparing it to the market price is handicapping. Deriving the value most accurately, is derived by power ratings that help one distinguish the chance a team has of winning on a given game. If one comes up with the Royals having a 40% chance of beating the White Sox on a certain day, and they are +200, they make for a huge value play and warrant a bet. I can?t believe how many people fail to realize such, and are narrowly minded into thinking if a team is more likely to lose, they don?t warrant a bet. Filter these people out.
All in all you are probably left with 10 to 15 % of remaining posters. There are several other variables that one can distinguish whether a certain poster is successful in the long run. Also note that there does exist successful long run handicappers that still fit in one or two of these categories. Also keep in mind, that there will be several posters that fit into at least one of these categories and will make a profit this year but lack a sustainable edge. However, this will be a product of luck than skill, randomness over substance?but they will not understand such a concept.
Good luck this upcoming season.
1.) The easiest way to find out who hasn?t been making long term money in handicapping on these forums is analyzing their money management techniques when these posters are willing to share such. One of the most surprising things I have witnessed on gambling forums is that so many people display a lack of proper money management discipline. It is not an art, rather a discipline that is easy to master and should be installed in ones handicapping process prior to making a single bet. Keep your eyes on people betting games with different amounts on each game. I can?t believe how many people risk 200%, 500% and even more on certain games compared to others. When you see a poster using such money management techniques, don?t walk away from their posts, run. This is the easiest and fastest way to find out if a certain handicapper has been doing this for a long time at a successful rate, as anyone that has had success would know such a technique is simply ridiculous. I still remember how a long term successful gambler put it to me nearly 20 years ago. He said ?that the key to handicapping is taking the ?coin flipping? out of the results by obtaining a sustainable edge. Once you have achieved such you are on your way to generate very rewarding returns. Betting different amounts on games puts the ?coin flipping? right back into your handicapping?. There have been several Monte Carlo simulations that have shown that the Kelly Criterion money management technique actually diminishes the expected returns nearly 90% of the time. When one could accurately justify that one bet has a greater chance of hitting than another one he plans to bet, weeding out processes gives you a better chance of enhancing returns. Although I feel the Kelly Criterion is too aggressive, some of the posters techniques I see on a daily basis blow it a way. Think about it. Take the people that bet 10 times (or 1000%) more on certain games. What percent chance do these people think these bets have of cashing in and how much higher is it compared to the one unit bets they make. Even if they say these bets have a 60% of hitting while the one unit bets have a 55% it makes NO SENSE whatsoever to risk that much more on a 5% edge, and anyone that tells you the disparity is greater is full of it. Anyone using a progressive or Martingale system is another person that has not generated long term gains nor does this person have a strong mathematical background. Weed those people out as well. Believe it or not, you have just weeded out 40% of posters (would be more if more were willing to share their money management techniques).
2.) What I also see on forums are people that bump threads on every winning post. I have never seen an environment where such high rates of people die for attention. Realizing that about 95% of poster have not been able to generate long term gains you will quickly understand why they feel the need for attention when they have a winning day. They know these days are not sustainable and have not been sustainable since entering this industry. All the successful handicappers that I have had the pleasure of knowing over the years are the most humble and modest people I know. They wouldn?t get caught dead on an internet forum pumping their chest every time they put down a post that makes money. ?Attention whoring? is a dead give away that someone has not yet achieved that 3 to 5 % status. Keep your eye out on thread bumpers and attention whores- and cross them off your list of successful handicappers.
3.) Now that you have weeded out about 60% of posters, with the ones remaining, if they are willing to share the derivation of their picks, take advantage of it. Look at why they chose such pick. I see a lot of flaws in peoples reasoning behind picks, and they are easy to spot. To a certain degree, they are subjective, but distinguishable. Filter out the people whose reasoning?s defy logic and are not correlated to outcomes of the games.
4.) Having a strong statistical background is a huge asset for handicappers. Not having it is a detriment, but not a wall that prevents a handicapper from being successful. But there are a lot of fallacies that I see posted everyday that straight up defies statistical logic and pretty much shows the handicappers lack of experience. When I see posts in the likes of ?I am hot, follow me? or ? I am due, follow me?, or ?I am cold, fade me?, my advice is to not simply not read any of their posts again, as they are defying key handicapping logic, by actually thinking there is substance behind streaks of independent events. Handicapping is NOT about hot and cold streaks. In fact, hot and cold streaks are absolutely meaningless for independent events such as betting baseball games. If you have a handicapper that lacks a sustainable edge, and is on a hot streak, the expected results of his future outcomes of the next 10, 100, or 1000 bets is still simply his ?intrinsic handicapping value? (or mean average).-implying that he is likely to hit 50% going forward. Hot streaks ONLY hold merit when there exists a structural change in ones handicapping intrinsic value. If a long term 50% handicapper has improved his techniques that have allowed him to achieve a hot streak, then it holds merit, as his ?mean? has increased. Otherwise, hot and cold streaks are utterly useless and hold no merit, as does any other independent normal distribution outcome of events. Keep an eye out for posters that swear by streaks and think there is substance behind them. My guess is that they are new to this game and don?t understand what regression means. The key is not trying to achieve hot streaks and prevent cold steaks, they are both are bound to happen. The key is deriving a solid money management technique that curtails the effect of both streaks, as something that holds no statistical substance should have as little effect as possible on ones bankroll. I advise you to filter out such posters as well.
5.) Number four leads right to number five. I always see on these handicapping forums people that try to ?time? their bets. When they are ?hot? posters have a tendency to bet more per game or bet more games. All this does is simply show their lack of experience, and essentially their ignorance of timing independent variables. However, one should acknowledge the effects of long run hot and cold streaks on their bankroll and adjust accordingly (ie % of bankroll method).
6.) Keep your eye out for trend bettors and tread cautiously with such. People that solely rely on trends on deriving sides are missing the bigger picture. Most trends are merely randomness found by ?data mining? and hold no substance. The few trends that do hold substance has an underlying self fulfilling prophecy working against itself.
7) For baseball, keep your eye out for people that consistently fail to acknowledge price. These people have the tendency to pick heavy favorites and are more concerned about their winning percentage than getting positive returns. Essentially, handicapping baseball comes down to one thing- your line vs. the market line. The market line is derived by a linesmakers that probably knows more than you will ever know about the sport. It is derived by what he thinks the line should be coupled with the expected supply and demand on the particular game. Beating the number takes advantage of the seconded embedded variable in the linemakers line. Simply put, filter out the people that neglect such a concept.
8.) I can?t believe how many people don?t understand the concept of being willing to understand that it DOES make sense at times to bet teams you think has a greater chance of losing than winning. Price is everything. Distinguishing the value of a particular team on a particular game and comparing it to the market price is handicapping. Deriving the value most accurately, is derived by power ratings that help one distinguish the chance a team has of winning on a given game. If one comes up with the Royals having a 40% chance of beating the White Sox on a certain day, and they are +200, they make for a huge value play and warrant a bet. I can?t believe how many people fail to realize such, and are narrowly minded into thinking if a team is more likely to lose, they don?t warrant a bet. Filter these people out.
All in all you are probably left with 10 to 15 % of remaining posters. There are several other variables that one can distinguish whether a certain poster is successful in the long run. Also note that there does exist successful long run handicappers that still fit in one or two of these categories. Also keep in mind, that there will be several posters that fit into at least one of these categories and will make a profit this year but lack a sustainable edge. However, this will be a product of luck than skill, randomness over substance?but they will not understand such a concept.
Good luck this upcoming season.
