Doc Mercer
EOG Master
Today's New Home Sales report was much lower than predicted. February's annualized New Home Sales rate was only 848,000/year. This is a decline of -18.3% since February 2006. This is a -38% decline from the peak in July 2005. February's numbers were also 15% lower than the 1 million rate predicted by the market experts (propagandists). February's New Home Sales marks a 10% 1-month decline from the originally published January sales of 937,000.
The previous 3 months' numbers (November, December, and January) were all revised downward significantly. These changes can be seen in the modified table from Briefing.com shown below. The top half shows the actual February numbers for 3/26/07, along with the new, downwardly revised numbers for November 2006 through January 2007. (The revised numbers are underlined in red.) The bottom chart shows the predicted and previously published numbers as of Sunday, March 25th.
As can be seen from above, New Home Prices are down -0.3% for the year. Median prices for Existing Homes are down -1.3% since February 2006. (So much for the fairy tale that home prices never decline.)
Unsold New Home Inventories rose to 8.1 months-worth. This is the highest level in 16 years. This is a 27% increase from February 2006. The total number of New Homes for sale on the market was 546,000 at the end of February. Adding this number to the 3.748 million Existing Homes for Sale at the end of February gives a total number of homes for sale of 4.294 million. This is a 22% increase in total inventory of homes for sale since February 2006. (The "months-worth" of unsold inventory is higher because it takes into account the number of homes sold, which declined since February 2006)
Below is a copy of Table 2 from the Census Bureau showing the latest New Home Sales statistics. Note that the the year-to-date sales for 2007 are only 136,000 homes, compared to 177,000 at this time last year. This is a 23% decline from for New Home Sales in the first 2 months of 2007, vs. the first 2 months of 2006. (Key numbers are underlined in red.)
The longer term trend on New Home Sales can better be seen from the chart below from Briefing.com.
It's difficult to see how anyone could say that the housing crash is "bottoming out." In reality, it looks like it's crashing at a fairly consistent (and rapid) rate. In fact, today's numbers actually indicate that the crash is accelerating.
Isn't it nice to know that the subprime problem isn't "spilling over" into the prime market, or the housing market as a whole? The self-proclaimed market experts have sure called this one right, haven't they.
unlawflcombatnt
Economic Populist Forum
EconomicPopulistCommentary
___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."
The previous 3 months' numbers (November, December, and January) were all revised downward significantly. These changes can be seen in the modified table from Briefing.com shown below. The top half shows the actual February numbers for 3/26/07, along with the new, downwardly revised numbers for November 2006 through January 2007. (The revised numbers are underlined in red.) The bottom chart shows the predicted and previously published numbers as of Sunday, March 25th.
As can be seen from above, New Home Prices are down -0.3% for the year. Median prices for Existing Homes are down -1.3% since February 2006. (So much for the fairy tale that home prices never decline.)
Unsold New Home Inventories rose to 8.1 months-worth. This is the highest level in 16 years. This is a 27% increase from February 2006. The total number of New Homes for sale on the market was 546,000 at the end of February. Adding this number to the 3.748 million Existing Homes for Sale at the end of February gives a total number of homes for sale of 4.294 million. This is a 22% increase in total inventory of homes for sale since February 2006. (The "months-worth" of unsold inventory is higher because it takes into account the number of homes sold, which declined since February 2006)
Below is a copy of Table 2 from the Census Bureau showing the latest New Home Sales statistics. Note that the the year-to-date sales for 2007 are only 136,000 homes, compared to 177,000 at this time last year. This is a 23% decline from for New Home Sales in the first 2 months of 2007, vs. the first 2 months of 2006. (Key numbers are underlined in red.)
The longer term trend on New Home Sales can better be seen from the chart below from Briefing.com.
It's difficult to see how anyone could say that the housing crash is "bottoming out." In reality, it looks like it's crashing at a fairly consistent (and rapid) rate. In fact, today's numbers actually indicate that the crash is accelerating.
Isn't it nice to know that the subprime problem isn't "spilling over" into the prime market, or the housing market as a whole? The self-proclaimed market experts have sure called this one right, haven't they.
unlawflcombatnt
Economic Populist Forum
EconomicPopulistCommentary
___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."
