curry bagwell
EOG Enthusiast
Detroit +240 To win AL Central (Double Play)
We get value here because it is a four team race. The Twins are the defending Champion, the White Sox won the World Series in ?05 and the Indians are the team on the rise. But when you break it down, it is not a four team race. The Twins will have to go through a full season without Liriano and Radke. They will have a rotation with one A+ starter and 4 D starters. That will not hold up in the AL this year. The White Sox have not recovered from the ?05 workload their pitching staff endured. They no longer have Cotts, McCarthy, or Garcia and those are huge losses. The Indians are the main threat to the Tigers, but of the two relievers they brought in to fix their bullpen problems (Foulke and Borowski) one retired and I have little confidence in the other.
The Tigers were on pace last season to win 110 games, but Placido Polanco went down in late August and they lost their ability to manufacture runs. They have Sean Casey now for a full season which gives them a tough out in the middle of the lineup and a needed left handed bat because they were vulnerable to RH pitching last year. With the addition of Sheffield their offense is now dangerous. The Tiger rotation returns Mike Maroth who is capable of winning 16 to 18 games as a #5 starter. Their rotation is a manager?s dream and if injuries occur, they have Miner, Ledezma, and Tata that can fill in. Zach Miner would be a #4 starter on some teams. They can turn it over to Rodney, Zumaya, and Jones to finish it off. This is MLB?s #1 seed.
Reds under 77 (Double Play)
The Reds were in the NL Central race the entire season last year. They made some trades during the season to help their current needs (bullpen), but those trades damaged their future. Their once promising lineup is no longer there and they still do not have the pitching. Losing Sean Casey to Pittsburgh was affordable because they had Dunn, Kearns, Lopez and Pena.
Losing Pena to Boston was OK because they still had Dunn, Kearns and Lopez. However, by trading Kearns and Lopez to Washington for a ?quick fix? they have shuffled themselves to the bottom of the NL Central. Wins are going to be harder to come by in the NL Central this year with Milwaukee and the Cubs improving. St. Louis will win over 90 games and the Astros got the bat in Carlos Lee they have been needing to protect Berkman. What I especially do not like about the ?07 Reds is the middle of their lineup. Griffey and Dunn will hit a lot of solo HR's, but when the game is on the line pitchers can get them out. It is a lot like the Cardinals in ?97 thru ?99 with McGwire and Lankford. When a pitcher needed to bear down, he could strike those guys out and leave men on base. Griffey and Dunn have holes in their swings. Pitchers can get those guys out when there are runners in scoring position. Adding Gonzalez at SS simply means the Reds are not going to manufacture runs and will hit into more double plays.
I look for the Red?s offense to particularly struggle on the road and I look for their pitching staff to wear down pitching in the Great American Ballpark which will make for a long season in Cincinnati.
Colorado over 75
This is the Rockies' third year after a decision to rebuild. They have a young talented team which is ready to break through. They acquired a speedy CF in Taveras to roam spacious Coors Field and acquired bullpen depth in Hawkins, Buckholtz and Hirsh. That bullpen depth is vital playing half of their games in Coors Field. They have a solid 3 through 7 in their lineup as well as two speedsters at the top. They can manufacture runs or out-slug you. Their rotation will benefit from manager Hurdle?s decision to use a 6 man rotation the last six weeks a year ago. The core of their bench is made up of players who have started for them the last two seasons. They are quietly confident about this season.
Minnesota under 84
Any team playing in the AL Central that may have to use Ramon Ortiz in the rotation is hurting. The Twins amazing run to the AL Central crown last season was fueled by having Santana and Liriano at the top of the rotation winning almost every time out. Liriano is gone as well as long time starter Radke and this rotation is in trouble. They will be playing from behind a lot this season which means their solid bullpen will not be as effective. In the end playing so many games in the AL Central and the Mets in NY in interleague play doesn?t add up to a lot of wins for the Twins this season.
Houston under 78 1/2
The Astros landed a big bat in the off-season in Carlos Lee which will give Beckman valuable protection this season. That is the only positive for this Astro team. By trading Taveras, they now have no speed, no one to cover all of the ground in CF in MMP, and no way to manufacture runs. Their leadoff hitter Biggio will probably rank 30th in leadoff production this season. Without a closer, look for the Astros to have the worst record in one run games in the NL this year.
San Francisco under 80
Giant?s organization pledged to get younger so they went out and acquired Rich Aurilio, Bengie Molina, Ryan Klesko and Dave Roberts in the off season. Molina is the youngest of those (if you believe his DOB) at 32. This is a team made up of past-their-prime veterans. Going a full season without catcher Mike Matheny is going to catch up with them. Zito in my mind is a question mark with his 85 mph fastball pitching away from the Oakland Coliseum and its spacious foul territories. Mulder and Hudson haven?t been the same since they left there.
St. Louis over 85
Cardinals have averaged 94 wins a season this decade so let?s take a look at why the oddsmakers make this total 85. In most analysts? eyes, the Cardinals have questions in their starting rotation. Adam Wainright has been a starter most of his career. He has four solid pitches and is a Chris Carpenter clone. Anthony Reyes has been coveted by other teams for the last 3 years. He has the ability to have pitched a one hitter at U.S. Cellular last year vs. the White Sox and he beat Detroit at Comerica in Game 1 of last year?s World Series. Those two guys replace Sidney Ponson and Jason Marquis who were the starters this time a year ago. Kip Wells was always projected to be a B+ starter and is healthy now and reportedly has a great relationship with Dave Duncan. The Redbirds will have Mark Mulder in late June. If a problem occurs with any of the above, they have the money, bullpen depth and prospects to go get a Jake Westbrook at anytime. Pitching for St. Louis is enhanced by them having the best defensive catcher in baseball and a gold glover at 1B, 3B, and CF. Most importantly, they had a revolving door at second base last year and could not turn double plays. That problem is solved with Kennedy reuniting with Eckstein.
Good Luck.
We get value here because it is a four team race. The Twins are the defending Champion, the White Sox won the World Series in ?05 and the Indians are the team on the rise. But when you break it down, it is not a four team race. The Twins will have to go through a full season without Liriano and Radke. They will have a rotation with one A+ starter and 4 D starters. That will not hold up in the AL this year. The White Sox have not recovered from the ?05 workload their pitching staff endured. They no longer have Cotts, McCarthy, or Garcia and those are huge losses. The Indians are the main threat to the Tigers, but of the two relievers they brought in to fix their bullpen problems (Foulke and Borowski) one retired and I have little confidence in the other.
The Tigers were on pace last season to win 110 games, but Placido Polanco went down in late August and they lost their ability to manufacture runs. They have Sean Casey now for a full season which gives them a tough out in the middle of the lineup and a needed left handed bat because they were vulnerable to RH pitching last year. With the addition of Sheffield their offense is now dangerous. The Tiger rotation returns Mike Maroth who is capable of winning 16 to 18 games as a #5 starter. Their rotation is a manager?s dream and if injuries occur, they have Miner, Ledezma, and Tata that can fill in. Zach Miner would be a #4 starter on some teams. They can turn it over to Rodney, Zumaya, and Jones to finish it off. This is MLB?s #1 seed.
Reds under 77 (Double Play)
The Reds were in the NL Central race the entire season last year. They made some trades during the season to help their current needs (bullpen), but those trades damaged their future. Their once promising lineup is no longer there and they still do not have the pitching. Losing Sean Casey to Pittsburgh was affordable because they had Dunn, Kearns, Lopez and Pena.
Losing Pena to Boston was OK because they still had Dunn, Kearns and Lopez. However, by trading Kearns and Lopez to Washington for a ?quick fix? they have shuffled themselves to the bottom of the NL Central. Wins are going to be harder to come by in the NL Central this year with Milwaukee and the Cubs improving. St. Louis will win over 90 games and the Astros got the bat in Carlos Lee they have been needing to protect Berkman. What I especially do not like about the ?07 Reds is the middle of their lineup. Griffey and Dunn will hit a lot of solo HR's, but when the game is on the line pitchers can get them out. It is a lot like the Cardinals in ?97 thru ?99 with McGwire and Lankford. When a pitcher needed to bear down, he could strike those guys out and leave men on base. Griffey and Dunn have holes in their swings. Pitchers can get those guys out when there are runners in scoring position. Adding Gonzalez at SS simply means the Reds are not going to manufacture runs and will hit into more double plays.
I look for the Red?s offense to particularly struggle on the road and I look for their pitching staff to wear down pitching in the Great American Ballpark which will make for a long season in Cincinnati.
Colorado over 75
This is the Rockies' third year after a decision to rebuild. They have a young talented team which is ready to break through. They acquired a speedy CF in Taveras to roam spacious Coors Field and acquired bullpen depth in Hawkins, Buckholtz and Hirsh. That bullpen depth is vital playing half of their games in Coors Field. They have a solid 3 through 7 in their lineup as well as two speedsters at the top. They can manufacture runs or out-slug you. Their rotation will benefit from manager Hurdle?s decision to use a 6 man rotation the last six weeks a year ago. The core of their bench is made up of players who have started for them the last two seasons. They are quietly confident about this season.
Minnesota under 84
Any team playing in the AL Central that may have to use Ramon Ortiz in the rotation is hurting. The Twins amazing run to the AL Central crown last season was fueled by having Santana and Liriano at the top of the rotation winning almost every time out. Liriano is gone as well as long time starter Radke and this rotation is in trouble. They will be playing from behind a lot this season which means their solid bullpen will not be as effective. In the end playing so many games in the AL Central and the Mets in NY in interleague play doesn?t add up to a lot of wins for the Twins this season.
Houston under 78 1/2
The Astros landed a big bat in the off-season in Carlos Lee which will give Beckman valuable protection this season. That is the only positive for this Astro team. By trading Taveras, they now have no speed, no one to cover all of the ground in CF in MMP, and no way to manufacture runs. Their leadoff hitter Biggio will probably rank 30th in leadoff production this season. Without a closer, look for the Astros to have the worst record in one run games in the NL this year.
San Francisco under 80
Giant?s organization pledged to get younger so they went out and acquired Rich Aurilio, Bengie Molina, Ryan Klesko and Dave Roberts in the off season. Molina is the youngest of those (if you believe his DOB) at 32. This is a team made up of past-their-prime veterans. Going a full season without catcher Mike Matheny is going to catch up with them. Zito in my mind is a question mark with his 85 mph fastball pitching away from the Oakland Coliseum and its spacious foul territories. Mulder and Hudson haven?t been the same since they left there.
St. Louis over 85
Cardinals have averaged 94 wins a season this decade so let?s take a look at why the oddsmakers make this total 85. In most analysts? eyes, the Cardinals have questions in their starting rotation. Adam Wainright has been a starter most of his career. He has four solid pitches and is a Chris Carpenter clone. Anthony Reyes has been coveted by other teams for the last 3 years. He has the ability to have pitched a one hitter at U.S. Cellular last year vs. the White Sox and he beat Detroit at Comerica in Game 1 of last year?s World Series. Those two guys replace Sidney Ponson and Jason Marquis who were the starters this time a year ago. Kip Wells was always projected to be a B+ starter and is healthy now and reportedly has a great relationship with Dave Duncan. The Redbirds will have Mark Mulder in late June. If a problem occurs with any of the above, they have the money, bullpen depth and prospects to go get a Jake Westbrook at anytime. Pitching for St. Louis is enhanced by them having the best defensive catcher in baseball and a gold glover at 1B, 3B, and CF. Most importantly, they had a revolving door at second base last year and could not turn double plays. That problem is solved with Kennedy reuniting with Eckstein.
Good Luck.