The NBA season is winding down, and the records indicate their are a few teams that are heads-and-heels above the rest. Going on pure records alone the big 3 are DALLAS (.845), PHOENIX (.746), and SAN ANTONIO (.718). There are only 3 other teams with a winning percentage above .600, with Cleveland (.597) very close. So let's take these teams in games that matter the most,against each other, and see how they stack up ATS.
PHOENIX 11-4
DETROIT 8-5
CLEVE 7-6
UTAH 7-6-1
DALLAS 7-8-1
HOU 6-11
SA 5-11
A bit surprised? Phoenix has been the best team, against the best teams. Is that due to their style, which doesn't wear well in the playoffs? Or is it due to the fact that they are simply the best? Detroit is the stand alone team over .600 in the eastern Conference, and both them, and Cleveland follow at #2 and #3. Does that mean they are better than the Western teams? Does it mean the West has a reputation of being better so the point-spreads are biased? San Antonio at the bottom is truly a surprise. Does that mean this team is on the decline? Does it mean they are still good enough to take out the mediocre, and build a nice regular season look, but not quite what they once were?
Let's analyse the OVER/UNDER features of these games. I went into this expecting 1 of 2 things to show. Hypothesis #1: The best teams in the league, have scorers, and will put up some points vs each other. Hypothesis #2: These are the games that create a playoff feel for each of these teams, the 15 games or so during the year where they really bring it, and the scores will be more in tuned to playoff action than regular season, and the edge would be to the UNDER, because the odds-makers do not treat these like playoff games, and posted totals are not low enough, as they would be if they were playoff games. BINGO! Hypothesis #2 EXPOSES EXACTLY THAT! These are for all intent and purposes, playoff games, and the odds-makers expose the books to heavy under action, as the public rides hypothesis #1, and lose!
OVER UNDERS FOR THE TOP 7 TEAMS VS EACH OTHER:
OVER LISTED FIRST FOLLOWED BY UNDER:
UTAH 8-6
DET 6-7
PHX 6-9
DALL 6-10
CLEVE 4-9
SA 4-12
HOU 4-13
That is a combined 38-66, but since they are all games against each other everything is counted twice, so we must cut them in half. We end up with 19-33! That means these teams play under nearly 64% of the time, and 6 of the 7 teams are playing more under's than over's. If you take out Utah (backfitting and not suggested), it makes for a 67% situation.
Now is it best to take the very good teams at home or best to take the very best teams on the road? Here is a breakdown of favorites at all the given pointspreads in these games:
1 1-2
1.5 1-1
2 0-1
2.5 1-2
3 1-1-1
3.5 1-1
4 2-3
4.5 1-2
5 0-2
5.5 1-4
6 1-1
6.5 1-0
7 2-1
7.5 2-1
8 0-2
8.5 0-2
9+ 0-1
15-27-1
The favorites in these games have covered just 35.7%!
I do not believe in parlays, so this is not a recomendation of any sort. You have an UNDER situation at 64% and a dog situation of 64%, so what would happen if in these games you played a parlay of the dog and under?
You would hit approx. 42% of your parlays.
The next question is, ok Ned, looks good this year, the theory has sound basis, but there are only 50 or so plays, so is this an anomoly?
Stay tuned for Part 2 as I dig up another year or two to see if this holds year after year and is time tested
PHOENIX 11-4
DETROIT 8-5
CLEVE 7-6
UTAH 7-6-1
DALLAS 7-8-1
HOU 6-11
SA 5-11
A bit surprised? Phoenix has been the best team, against the best teams. Is that due to their style, which doesn't wear well in the playoffs? Or is it due to the fact that they are simply the best? Detroit is the stand alone team over .600 in the eastern Conference, and both them, and Cleveland follow at #2 and #3. Does that mean they are better than the Western teams? Does it mean the West has a reputation of being better so the point-spreads are biased? San Antonio at the bottom is truly a surprise. Does that mean this team is on the decline? Does it mean they are still good enough to take out the mediocre, and build a nice regular season look, but not quite what they once were?
Let's analyse the OVER/UNDER features of these games. I went into this expecting 1 of 2 things to show. Hypothesis #1: The best teams in the league, have scorers, and will put up some points vs each other. Hypothesis #2: These are the games that create a playoff feel for each of these teams, the 15 games or so during the year where they really bring it, and the scores will be more in tuned to playoff action than regular season, and the edge would be to the UNDER, because the odds-makers do not treat these like playoff games, and posted totals are not low enough, as they would be if they were playoff games. BINGO! Hypothesis #2 EXPOSES EXACTLY THAT! These are for all intent and purposes, playoff games, and the odds-makers expose the books to heavy under action, as the public rides hypothesis #1, and lose!
OVER UNDERS FOR THE TOP 7 TEAMS VS EACH OTHER:
OVER LISTED FIRST FOLLOWED BY UNDER:
UTAH 8-6
DET 6-7
PHX 6-9
DALL 6-10
CLEVE 4-9
SA 4-12
HOU 4-13
That is a combined 38-66, but since they are all games against each other everything is counted twice, so we must cut them in half. We end up with 19-33! That means these teams play under nearly 64% of the time, and 6 of the 7 teams are playing more under's than over's. If you take out Utah (backfitting and not suggested), it makes for a 67% situation.
Now is it best to take the very good teams at home or best to take the very best teams on the road? Here is a breakdown of favorites at all the given pointspreads in these games:
1 1-2
1.5 1-1
2 0-1
2.5 1-2
3 1-1-1
3.5 1-1
4 2-3
4.5 1-2
5 0-2
5.5 1-4
6 1-1
6.5 1-0
7 2-1
7.5 2-1
8 0-2
8.5 0-2
9+ 0-1
15-27-1
The favorites in these games have covered just 35.7%!
I do not believe in parlays, so this is not a recomendation of any sort. You have an UNDER situation at 64% and a dog situation of 64%, so what would happen if in these games you played a parlay of the dog and under?
You would hit approx. 42% of your parlays.
The next question is, ok Ned, looks good this year, the theory has sound basis, but there are only 50 or so plays, so is this an anomoly?
Stay tuned for Part 2 as I dig up another year or two to see if this holds year after year and is time tested
