MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

[buffettgambler]

Royals @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -134
Intrinsic Value: -217
Consider Betting Price: -195
Comment:
No way do I expect linesmakers to lay 200 on the Blue Jays with Towers on the mound, but that is the embedded value they are coming with in this game. There has been a lot of talk about Grienke and his battle with these psychological problems. Many have been claiming that once he works out those issues, he has a bright future ahead of him, as he has the pitching arsenal to become a dominant pitcher. Although that may be true, one good start is not enough to make me think he has overcome his issues just yet. Tuesday will be a real test, as he is now forced to pitch on the road, where he has always been known to struggle. He supports a mid five career road ERA, and was overmatched in the past by the blue Jays lineup. Although he put up good numbers against the Red Sox, he got in a lot of early inning jams and got dominated by the right handed bats that he faced. This may be a problem going into this game, as he is up against one of the most dominant lineups in baseball from the right side. Even if he does pitch well, his stamina is lacking, and is backed by a horrible bullpen that should once again be overmatched by their opponent?s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is seeing the ball as well as any other team right now, and I wouldn?t be surprised if they finish out the season with the best home numbers at the plate compared to any team in the league.

Towers is another pitcher with a talented arm, but just fell apart last year as well. A couple of year?s back he showed what his solid command can do, as he put up an ERA well under 4. His solid spring gives the Blue Jays hope that he may regain what he once had. This is a good spot for him to pitch a good game and stay on the rotation, as his finesse style of pitching is exactly what you want going up against this young and over aggressive Royals lineup. He has dominated the Royals in the past in the limited innings of work. The Blue Jays having relief pitchers that eat up multiple innings at a time will allow them to put a short leash on Towers if he once again becomes hittable. The Royals bats have not looked good at the plate of late, and have never been known to hit the ball well on the road. Their young players are not seeing the ball well, including highly touted Gordon, who is one for his last 22.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Devil Rays @ Rangers
Play: Devil Rays +140
Intrinsic Value: -118
Consider Betting Price: -104
Comment:
No way do I expect linesmakers to make the Devil Rays favorite on the road here, but they possess a lot of hidden value. Over the last seven years, there might not be a worse home pitcher in baseball compared to Wright. His home woes were originally blamed on having to pitch at Coors, but being a sinkerball pitcher, I was suspect from the beginning. However, no matter what team he pitched for, he was decisively worse at home, including last year when pitching in a pitchers park for the Giants. His career home ERA is over six and Whip over 1.70. There definitely exists a mental deficiency prohibiting him from pitching well at home, and I am not expecting anything to change now with yet another new team. He has also been known to start seasons off slow, and has not held runners on terribly well in recent years, which could be a problem going up against this Devil Rays ball club. The lack of talent and depth in the Rangers lineup should allow the underrated Devil Rays lineup to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Although the Devil Rays are much less potent hitting on the road, they seem to like playing in this park.

Seo is definitely not the best pitcher on the Devil Rays, but I would not be surprised to see him put forth the best road numbers out of any pitcher on the club, as both their two young pitching prospects have not shown any consistency during their road starts. He is actually one of the few pitchers in the league that has shown to be more effective during his road starts. Being a right handed pitcher can spell disaster when pitching against this Rangers lineup in this park. But Seo is actually a pitcher that is more effective against left handed hitters. He has pitched this team well in his only start against them. Although the Rangers bats showed promise on Monday, it is an overrated lineup that is not seeing the ball well. Their catalyst in their lineup is Young, and he just doesn?t seem ready to play right now. Without him hitting well, the Rangers lack a situational hitter in the lineup.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Yankees @ Twins
Play: Twins +130
Intrinsic Value: -123
Consider Betting Price: -109
Comment:
Although I got burned on the Twins on Monday, I have no problem going right back on them when getting this much value at home. Pettite may be in the midst of his second straight season in which he starts out the season slow, as he just did not look sharp at all against the Orioles. Pettite is a lefty pitcher that has actually struggled more pitching to left handed hitters throughout his career, which may be a problem against this Twins lineup. The Twins bats are prone to getting overpowered but their patience at the plate can wear down a finesse pitcher like Petttite, who lacks the ideal stuff when forced to come into the strike zone. He is also a pitcher who is much more effective when pitching against lineups that he has a deep past history against, which is not something he will have against this young lineup. The Yankees bullpen is still suspect, and Pettite is not a candidate to go deep into games this early in the season.

I am not sure why Bonser continues to get disrespected by books, but this guy closed out last season putting up seven quality starts in his last nine, and started this season where he left off last with yet another quality start. He has shown a propensity to pitch more comfortably at home, and has pitched left handers well in his young career, which is key going up against this Yankees lineup. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball will put pressure on the Yankees to score off Bonser, but not having allowed more than three runs in any game in his last twelve starts, and they might have a difficult time doing such.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Red @ Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -122
Intrinsic Value: -137
Consider Betting Price: -124
Comment:
There might not be a team that needs to feed off of emotion and confidence this year more than the Diamondbacks. They are as young as they get, and could get dangerous with momentum backing them. That is exactly what they have going for them right now, as they have started the season with a six and two record, and got a confidence boosting win last night in their home opener. Today they get to face a feast for famine pitcher who pitched much less effectively than his stats would lead one to believe in his first start, as he allowed ten hits in that game. He is not an ideal match up in this game going up against a young lineup, as his propensity to try to overpower hitters has backfired against the types of lineups the Dbacks possess. He has also struggled against left handed hitters throughout his career, which is not a deficiency you want going up against this lineup in this park. Left handed hitters have bat almost .300 against him throughout his career, and the Dbacks may through five or six (Young will more than likely be out for this game) left handed hitters at him tonight. Lohse has never been an effective road pitcher either, supporting a career road ERA near five. He is also not backed by the ideal bullpen that compliments his style like he was with the Twins. He wears down after five innings, which forces the bullpen to play a big role in his games. The Reds have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and lack an ideal lefty to go up against this lineup prior to the 9th inning.

Although Gonzalez may be a risky bet, especially this early in the season, I don?t mind taking my chances at him at this short price at home. He is more of a finesse pitcher, which is ideal against this Reds lineup that is better suited going up against power pitchers. Although he has the propensity to get overpowered by left handed hitters, the Reds lack depth from the left side, and Dunn is the only left handed hitter on the Reds swinging the bat well. The Reds lineup is overrated, and proved once again last night that they lack the situational hitting to manufacture runs, and need to rely on the long ball to produce runs. This is much harder for them to do outside their home park where the ball flies out.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Giants @ Padres
Play: Padres -124
Intrinsic Value: -170
Consider Betting Price: -156
Comment:
There is not a lineup in the league more pathetic than the one that the Giants have showcased so far this season. They once again were dominated last night, and could not manage to get a win when their pitching allowed just two hits and one run. Today they get to face the only pitcher that they scored a decent amount of runs against, and the only pitcher they have beaten this season. However, in reality, Hensley also dominated this lineup, and if it weren?t for a big inning in which Hensley was consistently squeezed by the home plate umpire, he would have allowed just one run to this team as well. Hensley is also is one of young pitchers with a lot of upside, but often times gets overlooked by the bigger touted young pitching prospects in the league. But he has quietly put forth a 3.42 career ERA and has been hard to get hits off of. Prior to last week, he has dominated the Giants, especially when he has pitched against them in this park, where he has gone 12 innings without allowing a run. He has been dominant throughout his career during his home starts, as he comes into today?s game with a career home ERA of 3, and has allowed just seven home runs in this park in 120 innings of work. He overpowers right handed bats, but could struggle against the left handers he has faced. However, he has had past success against the left handed hitters on the Giants, including Bonds, who has just one hit in nine at bats. Being backed by the best bullpen in the National League, who happens to be pitching better than any other bullpen right now, leads me to believe that the Giants will yet again struggle to score runs.

Don?t let last start fool you. Morris is well past his prime, and is prone to yet another disappointing season. He has been getting progressively worse in four straight seasons, and was manhandled in spring. Although he pitched well against the Padres last week, I wouldn?t be surprised to see him struggle more this time around. Morris has had one of the higher disparities of home and away numbers throughout his career compared to most veteran pitchers. This is more than an anomaly, as he appears to be getting progressively worse in his road starts as he ages, and actually put forth a road ERA in the mid 5?s last year. There is also no other lineup putting pressure on their starting pitcher than the Giants, as you could see by the way they have been pitching that they feel compelled to pitch a no hitter. Although it worked last night with Cain, it was quite evident it messed up Zito the day prior. There are a few veteran hitters on the Padres that have had past success against Morris. Morris is also backed by a sub par bullpen, which should give the Padres an advantage in the later innings.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Rockies @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -124
Intrinsic Value: -207
Consider Betting Price: -187
Comment:
I wasn?t expecting the linesmakers to open this line any different than what they did, but there exists a lot of hidden value on the Dodgers in my opinion. Don?t let Lopez?s last start fool you; this guy is one of the worst starters in the league. It just so happened that he was facing a lineup that was tailor made for his pitching style, as the Diamondbacks gave him the young and aggressive lineup that he needs to face to be effective. He will have to face the exact opposite in today?s game, as he is up against one of the oldest and most patient lineups in the league, which should force Lopez to have to come into the strike zone. This is the situations in which he has struggled in recent years, as he simply lacks the pitches to get hitters out when challenging them. Lopez has always struggled pitching on the road, and has struggled against the two hitters on the Dodgers who have past experience against him. The Rockies lack the depth in the bullpen that they had last year, which should allow the Dodgers to face hittable pitching throughout this game. It appears that their bullpen woes are contagious, as their closer Fuentes looked horrible on the mound yesterday as well.

Tomko has been one of the most situational pitchers in baseball throughout his career. He is a veteran pitcher that could never adjust to pitching on the road, but has quietly been one of the most underrated and effective home pitchers in baseball the last decade. His career home ERA is 3.77, as opposed to his career road ERA in the mid 5?s. No matter what team he has had to pitch for, he has struggled for them pitching on the road, yet had success in his home starts. However, one park in which he has consistently pitched well in as a road pitcher is Dodgers Stadium, as he has generated a 2.71 career ERA in this park as a road pitcher. This leads me to believe he will be especially effective in this park at home. As he has aged, he fly balls to ground balls has increased a problem that should be helped out by this spacious park. Outside of Coors, Tomko has also dominated the Rockies in the past, and has had the upper hand against their best hitter Holliday. The Rockies continue to struggle hitting the ball on the road, but were helped out by fielding blunders yesterday. The Dodgers have a deeper and more effective bullpen which gives them more leverage when dealing with their fifth starter compared to the Rockies.
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[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Seattle @ Red Sox
Play: Seattle +197
Intrinsic Value: +157
Consider Betting Price: +184
Comment:
Square money has been all over the Red Sox over the last hour, and have now bid up the Mariners to a price that they are too hard to pass up, and are being more than compensated for the risk that they bring to the table in today?s game. Although Beckett put forth an impressive game against the Royals last week, I still hold my doubts that he is the same pitcher he was a couple of years back. He is still prone to the long ball, and vulnerable to making location mistakes when he elects to challenge hitters. Seattle has a lot of good fastball hitting players that are hard to overpower when challenging them, something Beckett is prone to doing. The Mariners have an underrated lineup and actually are more productive on the road. Beckkett was really been prone to the long ball last year, and the ball may be traveling better than expected in today?s day game. Aside from Papplebon, the Red Sox bullpen leaves a lot to be desired.

Most of today?s value is coming from Weavers highly publicized problems of last year. No other hitter in baseball was more vulnerable to the left handed bat the Weaver for most of the season. However, what had not gone mentioned was the fact Weaver finished out the season in dominant fashion, and more importantly dominated to lineups stacked from the left side in the playoffs. Aside from Ortiz, the Red Sox lack left handed hitters that could take advantage of this deficiency. Having not played for four days, the Mariners bullpen is more than rested and will need a lot of action in today?s game. This will put a short leash on Weaver if anything goes wrong. No, I don?t think Seattle will win this game, but are well worth the risk at the current market price.
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[styxen]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Nice writeups as always Buffett, lets bring in some money on the Mariners today. I really like that both you and Hawk are on the same side.......

 

[Archangel8]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

good luck Buffet and keep up the good work....

 

[buffettgambler]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

After this game, it might be a prudent thing to reiterate the importance of price. I would much rather provide this forum with a solid foundation that is vital for being a successful long term handicapper rather than supplying them with short term winners. I have been blessed to be around some of the brightest minds in the industry for nearly 20 years, and I have learned what it takes to be a long term successful handicapper. Right after sound money management and discipline, is the importance of distinguishing between price and value. Since this is an industry that is not perfectly efficient due to many explicit and implicit variables including emotion, this market allows for market miss pricings, meaning that there exists a disparity between price and value.

There are a lot of times when taking large underdogs that don?t even come close to winning makes you second guess a handicappers ability, but that is the last thing one should do, and a common mistake a lot make, which causes them to retreat from big underdogs to what appears to be ?short term safety? in big favorites. But in reality, this creates value on the underdog, and making big favorites erode your bankroll in the long run. You can not look at a bet as a stand alone entity, rather a position whose stand alone risk gets diversified away over a course of a season.

Now, back to this blowout. I accounted for all the risks that the Mariners were bring to the table in this game, whether it was being rusty from a four day layoff (which should with their fielding and timing at the plate. Even Ichiro struck out twice), or the risk of Weaver not having his stuff and getting thoroughly dominated. With all that accounted for, I only came up with the Red Sox winning slightly over 60% of this time if the game were played over a large sample. It does not matter what the expected score distribution is, and the fact that if they would win, their margin of victory would be much greater than most teams who possess a 60% chance of winning. That is irrelevant, and should not allow you to second guess your decision.

Linesmakers are no dummies. They put lines out for a reason, and it is not to ?trap? people. I guarantee you that during their valuation process, that they derived a line for the Red Sox below their -175 they elected to open it at. Knowing full well that being a morning game and a home opener for the Red Sox, the public would unload on the Sox- which imply they probably slapped on 20 basis points to what they thought the Red Sox were worth and put them out in the market at -175. They actually miscalculated the public?s perception, and the line moved off the open at -200. Betting on teams which carry this type of external variable will erode your bankroll in the long run.

Sure Seattle was a risky stand alone bet. I only gave myself less than a 40% chance of cashing them in. But expected ROI is what matters. And according to my calculations, their expected ROI at +197 and IV of +157 was over 17%. Implying that betting them in this spot 100 times would generate 17 units.

Baseballs betting should be approached as a grind it out investment, and getting rich slowly is the only way one should look at it, or they will be quickly disappointed.

Seattle @ Red Sox
Play: Seattle +197
Intrinsic Value: +157
Consider Betting Price: +184
Comment:
Square money has been all over the Red Sox over the last hour, and have now bid up the Mariners to a price that they are too hard to pass up, and are being more than compensated for the risk that they bring to the table in today?s game. Although Beckett put forth an impressive game against the Royals last week, I still hold my doubts that he is the same pitcher he was a couple of years back. He is still prone to the long ball, and vulnerable to making location mistakes when he elects to challenge hitters. Seattle has a lot of good fastball hitting players that are hard to overpower when challenging them, something Beckett is prone to doing. The Mariners have an underrated lineup and actually are more productive on the road. Beckkett was really been prone to the long ball last year, and the ball may be traveling better than expected in today?s day game. Aside from Papplebon, the Red Sox bullpen leaves a lot to be desired.

Most of today?s value is coming from Weavers highly publicized problems of last year. No other hitter in baseball was more vulnerable to the left handed bat the Weaver for most of the season. However, what had not gone mentioned was the fact Weaver finished out the season in dominant fashion, and more importantly dominated to lineups stacked from the left side in the playoffs. Aside from Ortiz, the Red Sox lack left handed hitters that could take advantage of this deficiency. Having not played for four days, the Mariners bullpen is more than rested and will need a lot of action in today?s game. This will put a short leash on Weaver if anything goes wrong. No, I don?t think Seattle will win this game, but are well worth the risk at the current market price.
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[Baseball Guru]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

After this game, it might be a prudent thing to reiterate the importance of price. I would much rather provide this forum with a solid foundation that is vital for being a successful long term handicapper rather than supplying them with short term winners. I have been blessed to be around some of the brightest minds in the industry for nearly 20 years, and I have learned what it takes to be a long term successful handicapper. Right after sound money management and discipline, is the importance of distinguishing between price and value. Since this is an industry that is not perfectly efficient due to many explicit and implicit variables including emotion, this market allows for market miss pricings, meaning that there exists a disparity between price and value.

There are a lot of times when taking large underdogs that don?t even come close to winning makes you second guess a handicappers ability, but that is the last thing one should do, and a common mistake a lot make, which causes them to retreat from big underdogs to what appears to be ?short term safety? in big favorites. But in reality, this creates value on the underdog, and making big favorites erode your bankroll in the long run. You can not look at a bet as a stand alone entity, rather a position whose stand alone risk gets diversified away over a course of a season.

Now, back to this blowout. I accounted for all the risks that the Mariners were bring to the table in this game, whether it was being rusty from a four day layoff (which should with their fielding and timing at the plate. Even Ichiro struck out twice), or the risk of Weaver not having his stuff and getting thoroughly dominated. With all that accounted for, I only came up with the Red Sox winning slightly over 60% of this time if the game were played over a large sample. It does not matter what the expected score distribution is, and the fact that if they would win, their margin of victory would be much greater than most teams who possess a 60% chance of winning. That is irrelevant, and should not allow you to second guess your decision.

Linesmakers are no dummies. They put lines out for a reason, and it is not to ?trap? people. I guarantee you that during their valuation process, that they derived a line for the Red Sox below their -175 they elected to open it at. Knowing full well that being a morning game and a home opener for the Red Sox, the public would unload on the Sox- which imply they probably slapped on 20 basis points to what they thought the Red Sox were worth and put them out in the market at -175. They actually miscalculated the public?s perception, and the line moved off the open at -200. Betting on teams which carry this type of external variable will erode your bankroll in the long run.

Sure Seattle was a risky stand alone bet. I only gave myself less than a 40% chance of cashing them in. But expected ROI is what matters. And according to my calculations, their expected ROI at +197 and IV of +157 was over 17%. Implying that betting them in this spot 100 times would generate 17 units.

Baseballs betting should be approached as a grind it out investment, and getting rich slowly is the only way one should look at it, or they will be quickly disappointed.

Very sharp post. Thank you for taking the time to write it. Im not sure many people understand this, but I think you hit the nail right on the head. Continued success...

 

[Archangel8]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

been following you since football season and have been very appreciative of all your insights and eagerness to educate the rest of the eog with your experience...thank you

 

[THE HITMAN]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Buffett & Baseball guru..............a lotta good insight and direction from both of you. Thanks.

 

[Culver]

Re: MLB: Tuesday April 10th Plays

Linesmakers are no dummies. They put lines out for a reason, and it is not to ?trap? people. I guarantee you that during their valuation process, that they derived a line for the Red Sox below their -175 they elected to open it at. Knowing full well that being a morning game and a home opener for the Red Sox, the public would unload on the Sox- which imply they probably slapped on 20 basis points to what they thought the Red Sox were worth and put them out in the market at -175. They actually miscalculated the public?s perception, and the line moved off the open at -200.

BG-You like stock market comparisions so I will give you a couple. Right now favorites are hot. They will get bet up as long as they cash. But more than that, favorite bettors are looking for their blue chip stocks for this year. With parity at an all time high (bad teams like Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Colorado and Pittsburgh are not going to be automatic go-againsts this year thanks to the effects of revenue sharing) favorite bettors are going to be looking for safe havens for their bets and there just aren't as many as their used to be. When they do find one, ALL of the favorite bettors will be looking to get invested. The Yankees at home and the Red Sox at home are two old favorites among this crowd and those bandwagons are going to be more crowded than ever this year. Where else are they going to park their money? St. Louis at home? Atlanta at home? The White Sox at home? Not any more. There just aren't that many "gimmes". I expect to see the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and whoever is hosting Washington to be inflated more than usual this season because you have the same demand (favorite bettors) and a dwindling supply (easy wins).

Let the games begin.