NFC Notes
posted: Friday, August 18, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Fantasy NFL
So what do I think about the preseason schedule in football? Well, it's tough to argue that each team needs as many as four games, or five in a few cases, but fantasy football owners are looking at it the wrong way. People get hurt all the time. If you own
Clinton Portis and think the preseason schedule is the reason he got hurt, you're missing the point.
While you think it would be more justified for a preseason injury to happen in a practice, the fact is, it's not. Portis might play in Week 1, he might not. But what if he gets hurt in Washington's only preseason game? That's a reason to cut out the preseason entirely? There is some value for coaches in seeing players perform. Of course they know what Portis and T.O. can do, but not necessarily their backups. Anyway, I've gone on record as saying I won't drop Portis in my rankings until the severity of the shoulder injury is made more clear. So what if he misses the preseason? So what if he misses Week 1?
Remember last year, when a certain All-World tight end missed Week 1 due to a suspension? Yep,
Antonio Gates turned out all right in 2005, didn't he?
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RANKINGS
Eric updated his rankings, so check 'em out.
Player Rankings
Top 200
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Portis was my No. 5 pick months ago, weeks ago and remains there today. The
Brian Westbrook injury, however, is different. He's never been durable, and his foot injury is likely to linger. Portis could separate his shoulder at any time, but for me to move him down my rankings past other questionable backs, I want to wait.
While Portis is the big news so far, with Westbrook,
Lee Suggs,
Ben Roethlisberger,
Koren Robinson and others getting legit attention, I've decided to go team-by-team through the NFC with general fantasy football thoughts today. Why? Because I can. Next week it will be the AFC.
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New York Giants: Fantasy owners seem increasingly concerned about both
Eli Manning and
Tiki Barber, but I don't understand why. Manning could have a brutal preseason (which he isn't) and it wouldn't change my stance that he's going to be a star, as soon as this season. I could see him threatening for the league lead in touchdown passes. And Tiki, despite his inclination to scare fantasy owners with talk of no goal line carries, remains the fourth pick in most drafts. If there's a fantasy concern with this team, it's the defense getting off to a slow start; the G-men open the season with the Colts, Eagles, Seahawks, then the Redskins, Falcons and Cowboys. I like the Giants defense for fantasy, but not early on.
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Washington Redskins: Obviously the Portis injury has everyone talking, and complaining, but I want to point out another thing with him, that he's not exactly a fast starter. Portis didn't score the first five games last season, yet still finished the year with 11 scores. I think fantasy owners are panicking too much when it comes to drafting a player who might miss a week. Portis would be in your lineup regardless, but draft him for the terrific second half he had. This injury is serious, but I think he can play through it once the season starts. As for
Ladell Betts, I don't move him up my draft lists all that much. He doesn't go to the top of my backup running back list yet, but I would consider him as a No. 4 fantasy running back if I owned Portis.
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Dallas Cowboys: I can't believe the
Terrell Owens e-mails I'm getting, those that accuse Owens of faking it, those that say they're dropping down their lists, things like that. He's a top five fantasy wide receiver in any format, arguably the top guy. This hamstring injury doesn't change that. If he's still hurt in mid-September, that's a different story, but I think Owens playing with
Drew Bledsoe in actual preseason games is overrated. Also, as angry/frustrated as Bill Parcells might be getting, he's not going to let T.O. mess up this team this season. All heck breaks loose here in 2007.
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Philadelphia Eagles: I've been trying to point out to people how the Eagles made three NFC title games before T.O., but nobody seems to listen. Look it up, it's true! And
Donovan McNabb was generally a top five fantasy quarterback option in that stretch. Philly doesn't have big names at wide receiver, and maybe nobody here is a great fantasy option (
Greg Lewis might be, and watch this kid
Hank Baskett with acrobatic catches), but that doesn't limit the effectiveness of McNabb. He's looked terrific so far, healthy and on target with his passes, I'm thinking he's a top five quarterback again.
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Chicago Bears: If I was drafting today, what would I do with the Bears running backs? I'd probably let someone else take
Thomas Jones, with the thinking I won't bite until at least late in round three, but someone else will. I still think
Cedric Benson is the No. 1 back here, and will have a nice season. He generally goes after Jones in drafts, which is fine with me. As for the quarterback, you don't want either
Rex Grossman or
Brian Griese in fantasy, but I do think Grossman will start Week 1, and Griese will see action soon after. I just don't think Grossman is that special, and Griese does have a track record. This team can win with an ineffective quarterback regardless.
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Minnesota Vikings: I'd move
Troy Williamson up my draft lists a bit now that Koren Robinson's future is in doubt. If you've already drafted him, you couldn't have known he'd be so foolish to get suspended again, but moving forward, avoid the guy. I don't think Koren will see the field, or if he does that he will live up to expectations.
Chester Taylor has a lot riding on his shoulders on this team, since it's a running team. I'm not so sure he lives up to the hype either.
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Detroit Lions: I'm not even looking at the stats
Jon Kitna puts up this preseason. Doesn't matter to me. He's the starter over
Josh McCown, no questions asked. I think this Martz offense is going to score points, even if the defense allows them all back. Watch Kitna, he can be a steady backup fantasy option. I wouldn't even bother taking McCown. Also, I'd feel great about getting
Kevin Jones in round three. I'm seeing him go earlier as each week goes by in the preseason, and for good reason. I'm also seeing
Brian Calhoun taken as the handcuff option.
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Green Bay Packers:
Brett Favre is not retiring, and last week's rumor on that subject has proven to be false. But that doesn't mean you want Favre in fantasy. I've avoided Favre in drafts because I don't think this team's offense is going to improve. Did you see that swiss cheese line play in the first preseason game? Favre's going to be running for his life.
Aaron Rodgers did look effective, but most of his throws in a 9-for-11 effort were rushed. Other than
Donald Driver as a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver, I doubt I'll end up with any Packers.
Ahman Green hasn't played yet, and even when he does, you could see a
Curtis Martin situation developing here.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There's a lot of fantasy value to be had here. For one, I traded down in a recent league from six to 10 so I could get
Carnell Williams. Hey, I think Cadillac is going to be pretty good, and while I could have just taken him at six, I knew he'd last. He did. Then I scarfed up
Ronnie Brown at 11 on the turn. One might wonder, if I like Cadillac better than Edge, why don't I rank them that way? Well, I don't necessarily see better stats, but better value. Meanwhile,
Chris Simms looks like he could break out, though I won't make him a fantasy starter, and I could see
Joey Galloway and
Michael Clayton literally switching statistics this season. Clayton was bad in 2005, but he's lost weight and looks great in camp. Galloway's not exactly a kid.
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Carolina Panthers: Lots of discussion about the injured
Steve Smith recently, and while I would consider him moving him from my No. 1 WR spot to three or four, I haven't done it yet. If I do it's because I'm starting to think the Panthers won't look at him as much this season. I didn't think that a few weeks ago. Watch Smith catch fewer passes because of
Keyshawn Johnson, but still score in double digits. Also, this hamstring injury appears to still be a problem.
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Atlanta Falcons: Keep the name
T.J. Duckett on draft lists, even as it appears his days as a Falcon might be numbered. We just saw the Jets go after Lee Suggs, which didn't end up happening, and Duckett could be next on the Jets' list. Plus,
Jerious Norwood isn't just a threat to Duckett, he could make things interesting for
Warrick Dunn as well. Norwood is already
Chris Perry in that he catches passes and will see playing time. Is Dunn as good as
Rudi Johnson? See where I'm going with this?
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New Orleans Saints: Sure, we all saw that 44-yard run
Reggie Bush broke off in his first preseason game. Wonderful. What did he do the other carries? When I saw Bush play it was obvious he can cut and accelerate and do some special things, but he reminded me a bit of Tiki Barber. You know Tiki gets caught at the line plenty if you watch him play, but he also breaks off a 20-yarder seemingly each game. That's Bush. Until
Drew Brees shows his arm is attached, defenses can key on Bush and injury risk
Deuce McAllister. I'd still take Bush late second round, but in some leagues I'm seeing him go ahead of
Steven Jackson and Cadillac, which seems way premature.
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Seattle Seahawks: I'm an Eagles fan, and the 2005 season was torture, of course, but look for the sad run of Super Bowl-losing teams becoming losers to stop right here. The Seahawks have a cake schedule and can't help but get back to the postseason. Why does this matter in fantasy? Well, the only thing that scares me about
Shaun Alexander, who remains my No. 1 pick, is when the Seahawks lead the 49ers by 30 at the half. Twice. And the Seahawks open on turf at the Lions and then play the Cardinals. Points will surely be scored, but will the opposition score? So Alexander will do just fine, unless games get out of hand.
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St. Louis Rams: I know I ranked
Marc Bulger sixth among fantasy quarterbacks, but I'm not drafting him there. Frankly, I have concerns, and would take Eli Manning or
Jake Delhomme first. I'll adjust the rankings. You see, it's easy to say you like Bulger better, which I thought I did, but in these drafts I've avoided him. What's the issue? I think he's going to get hurt. I don't like predicting things like that, but Bulger seems to be brittle, and I'm not as high on the post-Martz offense as others are. Plus, I think Bulger has become overrated; I mean, he's no
Trent Green. Bulger approached 4,000 yards twice, but this offense looks to be heavier on the run. And he never topped 22 touchdowns. I'd bet most people wouldn't know that. So, out of instinct, I've reassessed Bulger for fantasy.
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Arizona Cardinals: Meanwhile, I've also reassessed
Edgerrin James, and through little fault of his own am going to drop him down a notch or two. The Arizona line is awful. We can all see how Pittsburgh shut down the Cardinal running game last week and overreact, but I don't think James has any idea what he's gotten himself in to. It might not get better when the season starts. This remains a passing team, as long as
Kurt Warner is out there slingin' it, and you can trust the wide receivers
Anquan Boldin and
Larry Fitzgerald, but watch Edge pull a McGahee and lose touchdowns.
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San Francisco 49ers: While I still have some doubts that
Frank Gore can be a 20-carry per game everydown back, I'm quite certain
Kevan Barlow won't be healthy enough to be that guy. Barlow has said all the right things, came to camp in good shape off his knee surgery, and he remains young enough to reach his potential, but this is not a good situation for Barlow or Gore. Stop looking at what Barlow did in 2003, it's over. Gore will get that Week 1 start and look a bit like
Reuben Droughns this year, with decent yardage, but few touchdowns. Barlow might look like Lee Suggs! OK, have a great weekend and the blog returns on Monday. Hopefully there won't be any major injuries to discuss.