Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Agree on those plays but why not Florida tonight? That is my only difference.
Agree on those plays but why not Florida tonight? That is my only difference.
MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
- Thread starter munson15
- Start date
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
OK. thanks
OK. thanks
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
hello munson, may not be appropriate in this thread but my dogs went 3-2 (+1.67 units) last night and here are wednesdays dogs. minn, fla, tor, bos, pitt, mil.
i just know, you like looking at underdog systems..... i didnt play any of them but im thinking about playing them in my friends account for $20 each..... just to better track it......
hello munson, may not be appropriate in this thread but my dogs went 3-2 (+1.67 units) last night and here are wednesdays dogs. minn, fla, tor, bos, pitt, mil.
i just know, you like looking at underdog systems..... i didnt play any of them but im thinking about playing them in my friends account for $20 each..... just to better track it......
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I will be traveling today and won't be able to check in until tonight.
Good Luck today.
I will be traveling today and won't be able to check in until tonight.
Good Luck today.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Wednesday results------------------------
2-2, +22 hurdles
Season totals----------------------------
25-32, -343 hobsons
Thursday plays--------------------------
philadelphia +110
KANSASCITY +120
GL, :cheers I'll be gone for the day, be back tonight or first thing tomorrow.
Wednesday results------------------------
2-2, +22 hurdles
Season totals----------------------------
25-32, -343 hobsons
Thursday plays--------------------------
philadelphia +110
KANSASCITY +120
GL, :cheers I'll be gone for the day, be back tonight or first thing tomorrow.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I recall asking Drew about the situation we face in that game. I believe the response was that Hernandez would rank top 5 w/ the NPERA he currently holds, and therefore would qualify as a "non-fade" pitcher.
I would say that this is open to interpretation, but he seemed to want to err on the side of caution, and make sure we weren't running into many top-flight hurlers. Hernandez, in my opinion, is that type of pitcher, but I couldn't argue strongly against someone playing KC in this game.
I recall asking Drew about the situation we face in that game. I believe the response was that Hernandez would rank top 5 w/ the NPERA he currently holds, and therefore would qualify as a "non-fade" pitcher.
I would say that this is open to interpretation, but he seemed to want to err on the side of caution, and make sure we weren't running into many top-flight hurlers. Hernandez, in my opinion, is that type of pitcher, but I couldn't argue strongly against someone playing KC in this game.
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
NEVER fade King Felix! I bet him every game..the kid is lights out! I just hope he stays healthy...he has Cy Young written all over him..I always bet him, and when he faces anoter elite pitcher I play the under...it has only failed me once this year, and a couple times last year...Felix is the REAL DEAL
:bank:
NEVER fade King Felix! I bet him every game..the kid is lights out! I just hope he stays healthy...he has Cy Young written all over him..I always bet him, and when he faces anoter elite pitcher I play the under...it has only failed me once this year, and a couple times last year...Felix is the REAL DEAL
:bank:
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Monday Memorial Day--------------
16 different MLB teams are on streaks of 3 or more, a few NL teams are off, and some of the pitchers don't qualify under the strictest interpretation of the system, so there are no plays today. The closest situations were TORONTO and TAMPA BAY. GL to everyone.:cheers
Monday Memorial Day--------------
16 different MLB teams are on streaks of 3 or more, a few NL teams are off, and some of the pitchers don't qualify under the strictest interpretation of the system, so there are no plays today. The closest situations were TORONTO and TAMPA BAY. GL to everyone.:cheers
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Munson15,
I have finally returned to my analysis of this system. But I have a question about the cutoff ERA. The system eliminates pitchers in the top 20 of ERA. If you use the the normal minimum IP requirement (1 per game), then there are only about 50-60 pitchers in each league meeting this requirement. Hence about 30-40% of the starting pitchers meet the elimination cutoff.
Am I correct?
Munson15,
I have finally returned to my analysis of this system. But I have a question about the cutoff ERA. The system eliminates pitchers in the top 20 of ERA. If you use the the normal minimum IP requirement (1 per game), then there are only about 50-60 pitchers in each league meeting this requirement. Hence about 30-40% of the starting pitchers meet the elimination cutoff.
Am I correct?
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
No, the pitchers who don't qualify for the ERA lead due to lack of innings pitched can still be "non-fades" if they have a NPERA that would place them in the top 20. As long as they meet the minimum of 3 starts, or it's not a first start off the DL. The pitching rules are slightly open to interpretation, for example the average of 1.5 pitchers per team which some people use leads to a total of 21 AL pitchers and 24 NL pitchers for "non-fades."
Drew (the guy from U.K. who claims to have started the system) was OK w/ more filters. The more he whittled down the games, the better his win % he believed. Any other questions, please ask. Thanks for any help you can offer.
No, the pitchers who don't qualify for the ERA lead due to lack of innings pitched can still be "non-fades" if they have a NPERA that would place them in the top 20. As long as they meet the minimum of 3 starts, or it's not a first start off the DL. The pitching rules are slightly open to interpretation, for example the average of 1.5 pitchers per team which some people use leads to a total of 21 AL pitchers and 24 NL pitchers for "non-fades."
Drew (the guy from U.K. who claims to have started the system) was OK w/ more filters. The more he whittled down the games, the better his win % he believed. Any other questions, please ask. Thanks for any help you can offer.
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
Munson,
Took a few days off for the holiday.
I will be checking in again. Lets get some winners :cheers
Munson,
Took a few days off for the holiday.
I will be checking in again. Lets get some winners :cheers
Bobby Bacala
EOG Senior Member
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I'm still learning the system and then I read Sims thread and that really messed me up.:+textinb3
good night last night........slowly but surely getting that ytd back towards .500. lets get 'em tonight
I'm still learning the system and then I read Sims thread and that really messed me up.:+textinb3
good night last night........slowly but surely getting that ytd back towards .500. lets get 'em tonight
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
The biggest hurdle he needed to jump was the pitching stats. He did not have the same NPERA pitchers because he didn't have that info available. Also I noticed that our % went up w/ each filter he added to the system. No reason to think that the pitcher rules wouldn't help, rather than hurt, the overall picture.
And now that you're totally confused, GL tonight, Bobby!:cheers
Bobby, it's great that he gives us access to his database. I don't even know how he does it, I still write everything I play out in longhand. But I know what you mean, that's a lot of numbers to look at. BSims must be a computer ace to get all that info together. I hope his figures are off as it relates to our system, and I think if you are buying at least close to the price I quote you are ahead of most.
The biggest hurdle he needed to jump was the pitching stats. He did not have the same NPERA pitchers because he didn't have that info available. Also I noticed that our % went up w/ each filter he added to the system. No reason to think that the pitcher rules wouldn't help, rather than hurt, the overall picture.
And now that you're totally confused, GL tonight, Bobby!:cheers
munson15
I want winners...
Re: MUNSON'S SEASON UNDERDOGS
I want you to win that play eman, but I can't count it in the record. Happy I mentioned it as a lean.