Re: Reload's WNBA Tuesday Night "Double Penetration"! (WNBA: 21-10 +10.0 units)
Three hours before the tips but I did get some writeups done!...
For my first game in Tuesday night's "Double Penetration", I am taking the Chicago Sky plus 7.5 points against the Detroit Shock! It's my Eastern Conference "Back Door Booty Blast" Underdog of the Year! This game is live tonight on ESPN2!
The Detroit Shock come into this one off a blowout win against Phoenix on Sunday and I feel that big win will help make it a big letdown here against Chicago. Detroit scored more points against Phoenix than anyone can ever remember them scoring in a game - the first time they have ever broken 100 points. The pattern I have noticed in this league since the rule changes last year is that when a team puts up a 100 points, they fall big time after that. No game can be as exciting after one with as much scoring as that and the lack of intensity starts with their very next game. Prior to this big win, Detroit lost three games in a row and you have to wonder if Detroit is really over that slump or not. If you want to, you might be able to blame their loss in Washington on Cheryl Ford still being out but she was in the lineup for lots of minutes in their two losses against New York and Sacramento. No excuse for losing either one of those games but they did. In comes another opponent tonight that everyone feels they should beat in Chicago but I think it will be a tougher game than most people would expect. Even with Cheryl Ford in the lineup, Detroit got outrebounded by New York and a depleted San Antonio team. Yes, they came up with 55 rebounds in the win against Phoenix but I don't see the same kind of agression happening against Chicago. Even though the Shock blew out the Sky four times last season, they will have a tougher time facing a Sky team that has changed since then and beating them is a lot different than what it takes to beat Phoenix. The Shock have been a bit overrated all season and are 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games where they have been favored by 5 points or more. There are times to step in and lay points taking the Shock but tonight is not one of them.
The Chicago Sky have lost their last two games but I feel they have what it takes to keep this game close and even steal a win here against the Shock. Last season when Chicago got blown out by Detroit four times, they usually got outrebounded big by them. Even though they probably will still get outrebounded tonight by Detroit, I feel it will not be by much. Chicago's rebounding effort has improved a lot this season. The Sky have averaged 11 offensive rebounds a game making them 3rd in the WNBA there and 24 defensive rebounds a game which ranks them in the top 5 of the WNBA. Candice Dupree has led the Sky in rebounds with an average of 8 of her own each game - which is up from the 5.5 a game she averaged last year. Dupree has also averaged nearly 20 points a game, making the number 3 scorer in the WNBA there, and has shot nearly 50% from the floor this season. Even if the Shock manage to outrebound the Sky big time, Chicago had several big road wins this year in Connecticut and Sacramento where they had considerably less rebounds than their opposition. So it will take more than outrebounding Chicago to beat them and I feel Detroit does not bring much else to the table. When Detroit does not convincingly win the rebounding battle in a game, they usually lose. What I also feel will be key for Chicago tonight against the Shock is winning the turnover battle. The Sky have sometimes had games this season where their turnovers are in the single digits and if they can stay disciplined like this against Detroit, that will also keep the game close. Chicago knows they are outclassed overall by Detroit, but a few niches like turnovers, going toe to toe with the Shock in rebounds, and Detroit perhaps lacking some intensity makes the Sky a good candidate for an upset win here.
The line opened with Detroit favored by 10.5 and I felt that was way too high. Early bettors proved me right and the line got hammered down to 7 and now is holding at 7.5. It's certainly no longer an "Underdog of the Year" kind of play at that number, but it's still my best bet for Tuesday. I felt this game's line was inflated due to Detroit's big high scoring win over Phoenix, and the Sky coming into this one off a blowout loss in Indiana. There was also clear dominance by Detroit in last year's matchups with the Sky but I feel the matchups between these teams this year will be a lot closer. Chicago may not score a lot against Detroit but I feel they will find the niches needed to keep this close. Some might say this is a bad spot for Chicago with it being their third game in four days but the Sky have been in some similar bad spots this season and have come up with wins against tough opposition. When I go against a big favorite like the Shock here, it's always more about finding vulnerability in the favorite than trying to hype up the underdog having a chance. And I feel we have a vulnerable favorite here in Detroit who is ripe for a letdown against an opponent they will underestimate. Take the Chicago Sky plus the points! Watch it live on ESPN2!
For my second game in Tuesday night's "Double Penetration", I am taking the Washington Mystics minus 5.5 points against the Minnesota Lynx in my WNBA "Bitchball Blowout of the Week"! This game tips at the same time as my other "Double Penetration" pick so you can check the scores for it on the ESPN2 ticker as you watch the Sky take on the Shock!
The Minnesota Lynx are in weak shape losing four straight games coming into Washington tonight. My reload-ers and I cashed by fading them in some of those losses and we will fade again here tonight. The Lynx have not been putting up the kind of numbers on offense that they use to and their defense has allowed 47% shooting from the field this season making them the worst in the WNBA there. This is also a bad spot for Minnesota and will be the first road game for the Lynx tonight after a three game homestand. They will only have one day's rest after getting outscored by Houston at home on Sunday in all four quarters of that game. Minnesota could have their moments in this game but as I described in another thread yesterday, the Lynx winning is the "exception" these days as opposed to the "rule". Sure they can pull a big game out of their pussies sometimes but tonight is not the spot for it to happen. They had better chances for wins at home and now will get blown out.
The Washington Mystics have lost their last two home games but get a drop in class facing Minnesota compared to Indiana and San Antonio. One of my sayings in picking WNBA games is "T.O.P.S." - Right T-ime, Right O-pponent, Right P-lace, and Right S-pread! That is what the Mystics get here tonight. I feel Washington will get a deflated Lynx team coming in and have a breakout scoring effort at home tonight. The Mystics have had a subpar year overall, but have had some recent improvement on defense. Washington has only given up an average of 73 points in their last 5 games compared to their season average of 80 points. I also feel the offense should come up big for the Mystics tonight as well. This season when the Mystics have faced weaker defenses, they have lit up the scoreboard with some big numbers. Last year when Minnesota came to town, the Mystics put up 90 points and won easily by 15. Alana Beard is always capable of some big scoring for Washington and she put up 25 points in last year's matchup against the Lynx in Washington. The Mystics lost later on in the season against the Lynx in Minnesota but Beard was out with an injury then so do not let that fool you. The bad spot for the Lynx tonight will make them even softer than usual and I look for Washington to really run it up on them. This will be the final game for Washington prior to the WNBA All-Star Break and this should only add to the enthusiasm that the Mystics will have tonight.
The line for this game opened up favoring Washington by 4 and I felt that was just too low. It did get bet up to 5.5 and even 6 points proving that the opening number was off. The only bettors on Minnesota tonight are the ones that like the "due" factor. Four losses in a row and feeling like they are due for a win but the Lynx are in a bad spot here and it just will not happen. They are back in a bad slump and cannot be looking forward to this two game road trip before the All-Star Break. Look for Washington to roll wire to wire here and finish off their first half of the season a lot better than they started it. Take the Washington Mystics minus the points!
Go 2-0 with "Double Penetration" on Tuesday night! Forget the MLB All-Star Game! It might be a short week of WNBA action, but the "Reload steam" is all over these games already! Are you?
arty :+textinb3