GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

[tool21]

Usually when plays are to obvious they are sure losers.

MNF

NE -7
Cin +7

How and the hell is NE only a 7 point favorite? Please somebody explain this to me.

My stats say

NE 36.40
Cin 13.65

My gut also says NE wins this game by a ton.

Cinci doesn't HAVE a defense. NE offense is THE BEST IN THE LEAGUE!! and now they have a defense to back them up.

Please someone save me from UNLOADING on this game.

 

[tar_baby]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

i agree and will definitely be playing this big on monday

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

For those of you who want to be on the NE side of this game, get your bets in NOW.

IMO we will see a line of 7.5 or more by game time.

Cincy backers, should wait to bet.

 

[WYM]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

sounds good to me. already on it. good luck.

 

[FOREGO]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Im with you Tool. NE outmatches them in every category. Not only does Cinn have a weak pass defense but NE'S running game will totally dominate Cinn. I would think being at Cinn and a Mon night game is why it is at only -7. Good luck.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Dogs have covered the past 3 out of 4 MNF games. Maybe Vegas is thinking people will bet on the dogs? IDK

Best bet of the year right here. I just hope i win a ton of money on sunday so i can put it all on NE

 

[Alii]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Patriots will win by 20+, maybe even 30+.

The only way that the Patriots don't cover would be that the game is fixed. Bengals are on the Pats s-list...they will run up the score. Thought that they might take it a little easy on the Bills...they didn't. Who's gonna keep the Pats from running up the score?

Patriots 47-13.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Is vegas really THIS stupid.....i dont understand. Is Tom Brady going to get hit by a car this week? There lines have been way off IMO the past week or so.....

Dallas dog against Chi?
Ten dog against NO?

Those were all no brainers and this one is to.

 

[Alii]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Is vegas really THIS stupid.....i dont understand. Is Tom Brady going to get hit by a car this week? There lines have been way off IMO the past week or so.....

Dallas dog against Chi?
Ten dog against NO?

Those were all no brainers and this one is to.

Yup!

 

[Alii]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Usually when plays are to obvious they are sure losers.

MNF

NE -7
Cin +7

How and the hell is NE only a 7 point favorite? Please somebody explain this to me.

My stats say

NE 36.40
Cin 13.65

My gut also says NE wins this game by a ton.

Cinci doesn't HAVE a defense. NE offense is THE BEST IN THE LEAGUE!! and now they have a defense to back them up.

Please someone save me from UNLOADING on this game.

Bet the house and the Rolls.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Honestly Alii...im scared. Usually when the public loves a play its the wrong side. Ex. Cinci against cleveland although i stayed away because i knew Anderson was a half decent quarterback.

80% of public on NE....VERY scary

I will end up unloading on NE probably Sunday night if i have a good weekend and i'll go from there.....right now i'll leave it at a 3 unit.

 

[mofome]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

i saw it at -6 (-126) at pinny. i have played NE at -7 a few times.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Well shit, if MO likes it it's gotta be a winner!

 

[Alii]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Honestly Alii...im scared. Usually when the public loves a play its the wrong side. Ex. Cinci against cleveland although i stayed away because i knew Anderson was a half decent quarterback.

80% of public on NE....VERY scary

I will end up unloading on NE probably Sunday night if i have a good weekend and i'll go from there.....right now i'll leave it at a 3 unit.

I took Cleveland and the points, didn't expect a win though. This cannot be a similar situation.

Public aside, on paper I cannot see the Bengals within even 11 points. Someone please tell me how? Did the Bengals hire a terrorist to sabotage the plane the Patriots will be traveling on? Maybe spike their drinks? Maybe they bought the officials. Maybe they'll have the Ravens D dressed up in Bengals unis. B & B are still out for revenge...not about to let up. Then again, we could be wrong. Nah!

 

[NoNewbieca]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Strikes me to be exactly like the Bengals/Browns game. Now the Bengals may be looking to get the gift. NO ONE thought that the Browns ON PAPER could even hold a candle to Bengals. The world was betting the Bengals and the line was artificially low to attract more money that way. These "LOCKS" scare the crap out of me....I am going to tread very carefully, and bet lightly (if at all). Some games just scream keep away...

 

[3pointdog]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

"Usually when plays are to obvious they are sure losers."

tool remember you comment... this game smells to me, got to look at cinn plus at home...dont mean to rain on your parade but step back and look at this line....

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

NO ONE thought that the Browns ON PAPER could even hold a candle to Bengals.

Come on man, there were a lot of people that said cleveland.

I for one told my one buddy, who is MR. JOE PUBLIC every week, that i wouldn't take cinci that week. Everybody knows that Frye was a terrible quarter back, but last year with Anderson playing cleveland offense was putting up 300 yards passing everygame. It was obvious what was going on.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

"Usually when plays are to obvious they are sure losers."

tool remember you comment... this game smells to me, got to look at cinn plus at home...dont mean to rain on your parade but step back and look at this line....

But usually there is SOMETHING that says the game will be a trap. You can't neglect facts and stats.

I just have a feeling some story is going to come out about Tom Brady having arm soreness or something......

 

[Jer-z Jock]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Come on man, there were a lot of people that said cleveland.

I for one told my one buddy, who is MR. JOE PUBLIC every week, that i wouldn't take cinci that week. Everybody knows that Frye was a terrible quarter back, but last year with Anderson playing cleveland offense was putting up 300 yards passing everygame. It was obvious what was going on.

You just said it Tool.....when EVREYONE saw 6 or 6.5 or 7 they loved it....Bengals suck, New England is kicking A$$, New England is gonna SHOW the LEAGUE they dont need tapes...blah blah blah. But that same SOON TO BE SUPERBOWL WINNER and those same LUCKY TO HAVE 1 WIN BENGALS are now ONLY a 7 pt dog. So NE goes to BUFF and kicks the chit outta BUFF by ONLY 31 laying 17 at the MOST, now come to Cinncy and only give 7....when the BUNGALS should be 0-3 soon to be 0-4 cause the Pats will Kill Em. Think Vegas ALREADY forgot that the BUNGALS could of LOST to the Ravens by as little as 3 or as much as 17, 5 turnovers and they were still LUCKY enough to a victory.......but they ONLY need 7 against the WORLDS GREATEST ASSEMLED FOOTBALL TEAM. BOL and becareful.:smokesmal

 

[MadCapper]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

dont be so quick.

7 point home dog.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

I always give home dogs a cushion up to 7 pts. INCLUDING home field advantage. Cinci is beyond that with my predictions....gotta be Pats.

Kambours rating system

New England (-7) 38
Cincinnati 20
0.8698 0.7506

Last week this was 12-4 ATS


This says NE has 87% chance to win this game and 75% to cover the spread. EVERYTHING leads to NE.

Don't be a sucker. Bet the house!

 

[Reload]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Bengals +pts is the way I will go here.

 

[baddassmofo]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

pats -7

only way to play this....look what Pats did to them last year...38-13 in week #4

this pats team is better than last year's and bungles are worse

yeah - its a sucker's bet and i am sure 85% of action will be on NE but i can't see bungles keeping this close....brady to moss/welker/stallworth/watson - bungles can't match that and trade score for score....Pats should put it on auto-pilot by 3rd Q and win by 2 scores


BAMF

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Any reasons Reload?

 

[Reload]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Any reasons Reload?

1. Too much emphasis will be made of last year's blowout by NE in Cincy. It's probably all you will hear about in anyone's analysis of the game that likes NE to cover - besides NE having the greatest offense in history or whatever.

2. Cincy could easily be a 3-0 team right now.

3. Cincy got a "W" at home on Monday night to start the season. Despite NE's success this season, this has to be the toughest "spot" this season for them and I don't know if you'll see the offense perform with the same ease as they have in the first three spots.

 

[FOREGO]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Reload, How could it not be an easier spot for NE'S offense. On defense Cinn plays as if no one is on the field. I had them against Seattle on the money line Sun. and they let Seattle, come on Seattle in not an offensive juggernaut, score a touch to win the game. I love NFL dogs but it is really a stretch to go with Cinn. Im passing before I take Cinn. Good luck.

 

[Reload]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Reload, How could it not be an easier spot for NE'S offense. On defense Cinn plays as if no one is on the field. I had them against Seattle on the money line Sun. and they let Seattle, come on Seattle in not an offensive juggernaut, score a touch to win the game. I love NFL dogs but it is really a stretch to go with Cinn. Im passing before I take Cinn. Good luck.

Regarding the spot, I feel Monday night on the road could feel pretty different after enjoying two cakewalk weeks at home in a row. I don't think any defense really has an answer for the Patriots right now. In taking Cincy, you have to mainly hope the spot is what makes some difference.

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

IMO the folks who play Cincy are doing so in an effort to look SMART.

Sometimes we all over think stuff. WE shy away from what seems like the SQUARE bet. Lookat Sunday nights game as an example. Dallas playing better then Bears, and the Boys were getting points...........no brainer, right? well many bet the bears. MNF, Tenn playing better then N.O., yet Tenn was getting points........many bet N.O.

FOlks are so scared of betting like a SQUARE, that often we let the EASY $, slip right out of our accounts.

NE is 14 points better then Cincy on paper. This game is a VALUE at 7.

Will NE cover, .........? my $ says they will.

 

[Hercules]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

Always go against what the public likes on monday night football !!!

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

why?

Simply making a bet, based upon what OTHERS are doing is foolish.

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

I agree with everything boat is saying and him and I have both enjoyed taking easy wins with Dallas and Tennessee.

Do you think Cinci is going to miraculously play 10 times better than they have been? Even if they do NE will STILL beat them. Tom Brady is no joke and he is the hardest working Quarterback in the league. He is completing around 80% of his passes!!!! Cinci doesn't have an answer with their shitty defense IDC how many pts. Carson puts up.

I really am suprised with how many people that are saying "Something must be wrong since NE isn't favored by more" and they're going with Cinci just because THEY ARE SCARED of the truth? Vegas is SCARING guys into betting the WRONG play and i'm laughing.

But honestly, weather NE covers or not, it IS the right play laying 7 pts.

Once again people are going with the assumption and 'HOPE' that Team A will start playing better rather than going with what is obvious with Team B allreadyplaying great ball'.


One LITTLE thing that i seen watching ESPN one day was the game after all the controversy surrounding Belicheck that sparked something in my mind. NE KILLED some team and some of the players went up to Belicheck and gave him a hug. This isn't a football team. This is a famly. They stick by one another, they fight for one another and they win together. Cinci is abunch of individuals.....I honestly think NE is Superbowl bound JUST BECAUSE of that one little action that i seen. They have a reason to play hard and this is key in the NFL.

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

The key is that NE is the "right" bet.

Now does that mean 100% that they will cover?=no.

No such thing as a LOCK.

What being the "right" bet is that 51% or high of the time, NE would cover 7pts against Cincy.

I am sure if Cincy covers people will say "told ya so".

For me, I'll take the Pats and put my $ on them by beating Cincy by 7 or more.

In other news, the Browns just scored again.......

and again


and again


and again

 

[tool21]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

:+textinb3:+textinb3

Wow and this game is 5 days away. I can't WAIT!

 

[mofome]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

1. Too much emphasis will be made of last year's blowout by NE in Cincy. It's probably all you will hear about in anyone's analysis of the game that likes NE to cover - besides NE having the greatest offense in history or whatever.

2. Cincy could easily be a 3-0 team right now.

3. Cincy got a "W" at home on Monday night to start the season. Despite NE's success this season, this has to be the toughest "spot" this season for them and I don't know if you'll see the offense perform with the same ease as they have in the first three spots.

thats absurd.

cinci should have lost to baltimore. cinci was losing by 14 to clev with 3 minutes to go. cinci could be 0-3 easily.

i see this as the easiest 'spot' for NE all year. easily the worst defense they have played. the jets play NE tough with mangini but they got wasted. SD came into the year considered one of the best teams in the league and NE wasted them. Buff is said to have a tough defense and NE wasted them. NE will score 70 if they want to.
NE is the play. imo. you can go the other way, of course, but you cant say Cinci could easily be 3-0. thats just not true.

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

IMO BB is to smart to get into a track meet with NE. A track meet is the ONLY way Cincy wins.

BB will strive for 15 play, 6 min drives, that eat up the clock, and wear the Cincy D down, and keep Palmer and Ocho Cinco on the sideline.

 

[mofome]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

IMO BB is to smart to get into a track meet with NE. A track meet is the ONLY way Cincy wins.

BB will strive for 15 play, 6 min drives, that eat up the clock, and wear the Cincy D down, and keep Palmer and Ocho Cinco on the sideline.

moss and stallworth will be the fastest players on either team tomorrow.

 

[mofome]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

whos defense is going to hold more often? certainly not cinci's.

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

stuff can happen i track meets.

kick off returns, int's for a def TD, bad bounces.

IMO, (for what that is worth), BB will see that if he limits the # of times Cincy gets the ball, he increases his chances of winning.

Cincys Off=good

Cincys Def=bad

Now which unit, would you rather have on the field? I say the Def.

How do you do that?............long 15 play, 6 min drives.

Cincy can't win a 21-17 game.......they could win a 45-35 game.

Time shall tell

 

[mofome]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

eh, if the cinci offense is on because ne just scored, im sure bb wont mind. ne will run what they always do and kill cinci.

 

[Jer-z Jock]

Re: GOY? Lock of the century? What do you guys think...

By THE GREAT DENNIS GREEN-----"they are who we thought they were, now if you wanna crown them well go ahead and crown 'em then".

That was just after the BEARS (lastyear) who was head and shoulders better then Arizona squeeked out a come from behind win, with help of a few turnovers??

So guys this IS the NFL and crazier things have happened. I think I'll put a little on the Spread and a little on the ML. IT IS MONDAY NIGHT.......but I also enjoyed cashing- titans, cowboys, AND the Jags and Packers......and that was all of 10 mins worth of capping done like this........ hmmmm, this looks funny: fu(k it gimme the Jags....and so on. For YEARS I always played the easyiest victory on the board.....teased it and everything else only to help my local move on up in tax bracketsLMAO ). So far this year(STAYAWAY JINX DEMONS)..........well it's going well early. BOL I think I may just stay away...I read this thread so much Im not sure of what I was talking bout or who is the best side anymore. BOL to all, Im gonna hammer the Vikes.